Too soon
Ten years on, five features of public opinion about Brexit
Over the past ten years, the metaphor of relationships has frequently been used to describe Britain’s exit from the European Union. First, there was a drifting apart, then a break-up, and, finally, divorce. What about now? Do Britons want a reconciliation? A chance to get back together? To re-marry?
On 24th June 2016, a majority of voters chose ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’ but it wasn’t until three and a half years later on ‘Brexit Day’ (31st January 2020), that it officially happened. During the tortuous progress of the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament and often heated negotiations with Brussels, the vote was frequently expressed as “the will of the people.” But was it?
We should pause here and acknowledge two important features of public opinion 10 years ago in 2016. First, the Leave vote amounted to 52% of those who voted in the referendum (approximately 37% of eligible voters) with huge variations across the UK. Second, and despite Theresa May’s claim at the time that “Brexit means Brexit”, there was never much clarity on what sort of Brexit a (slim) majority had voted for or indeed wanted.
When Boris Johnson campaigned to “get Brexit done”, he secured a large majority partly because people were fed up with the issue and its dominance of everything else. An awkward but convenient silence followed ‘Brexit day’; Remainers saw the jeopardy in raising the topic and being criticised for betraying the vote, while Leavers were wary of the lack of tangible benefits.
1. It’s a salient issue, but in a different way
At the time David Cameron first pledged the referendum, 6% of Britons identified Europe/the Union as among the most important issues facing the country according to Ipsos. Come voting day it was 32%. One year later it had risen to 45%, and on Brexit Day it was 47%. But Ipsos’ last measure had Europe mentioned spontaneously by only 4%.
Changes in geo-politics have, though, helped to push opinion closer to Europe. Much of the public, including three in ten Leave voters, would now like closer relations with the EU. Six in ten support greater collaboration with the EU on security and defence. People are twice as likely to consider the EU than the U.S.A. as the more important security partner (although the most common response is that both are equally important).
2. ‘Bregret’ has increased but isn’t majority opinion
In 2016, 66% of Britons thought David Cameron was right to hold the EU referendum. Ten years on, the proportion has dropped to 43%. At the same time, there has been a swing towards seeing this as the wrong decision and an increase in don’t know answers. These changes in sentiments have been consistent across different groups of voters, although those aged 55+ remain more likely than not to think it was the right decision.
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Almost half the public say Brexit is going worse than they expected, but, at 48%, this remains short of a majority. A third (34%) say Brexit is working out as expected, a tenth (9%) that it has gone better than expected. Levels of ‘Bregret’ are similar to those in early 2023 when sentiment hardened towards negativity.
3. People see national, not personal, economic benefits of re-joining
YouGov’s polling finds a majority of Britons believe that re-joining the EU would have a positive impact on the UK’s economy, businesses and level of international trade (as well as enhancing our ‘soft power’). They are, though, much more circumspect about benefits to their household finances.
And while the economy ought to benefit, 41% of Britons believe that re-joining the EU would lead to a higher level of immigration into the UK. This is nearly matched by 37% who expect that re-joining would make no real difference to the number of immigrants coming into the UK.
4. There is continued conditionality
Support for a second referendum mirrors Bregret — 48% back a second vote in the next five years. How do people think they’d vote? YouGov have found 55% saying they support the UK re-joining but this falls to just 35% if the UK had to re-join without its prior opt-outs.
Similarly, Ipsos finds that more Britons support allowing EU citizens to live and work in the UK in return for Single Market access (a view which has strengthened). What hasn’t changed though is that Britons prefer sovereignty over immigration even at the cost of a closer relationship with Europe.
5. There are some signs of theoretical Labour gains
Labour might benefit from a more pro-Europe stance, most obviously among its own base but also beyond this. As a baseline, Ipsos found 31% of people saying they would consider voting for the party at the next general election. But if it pledged a second referendum on the issue the share increases to 45%. By contrast, retaining the status quo would depress inclination.
Of course, these are simplistic readings — we know that the issue of Europe isn’t high up on what people say shapes their vote — but they indicate the potential benefits of Labour plotting a bolder course. It could use the issue of Europe to please its base and reach out to Green and Liberal Democrat voters.
Remain a leaver?
Brexit changed British politics and culture. Ten years on from the referendum vote, Britain’s two historically largest political parties continue to grapple with the aftermath. Teenagers are still referring to “Brexit tackles” in football (dangerously rough play). The topic still has the ability to animate and annoy. It bubbles along under the surface.
But, to return to the metaphor of relationships, it’s just too soon. While a growing number of Britons look back and lament the split, too few have a strongly positive view of a future reunion.
