作者:
Michael J·Mauboussin 出版社: Harvard Business School Press 副标题: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition 出版年: 2009-10-12 页数: 204 定价: USD 29.95 装帧: Hardcover ISBN: 9781422176757
Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.
Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines ...
Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.
Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In Think Twice, Michael Mauboussin shows you how to recognize-and avoid-common mental missteps, including:
-Misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages
-Aggregating micro-level behavior to predict macro-level behavior
-Not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision
-Relying too much on experts
Sharing vivid stories from business and beyond, Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when it's time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive.
Master the art of thinking twice, and you'll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.
作者简介
· · · · · ·
[美]迈克尔•莫布森（Michael J. Mauboussin），哥伦比亚商学院教授，圣塔菲研究所核心成员，研究领域横跨心理学、竞争策略、金融、管理、复杂系统理论等，是当代复杂科学领域的领军人物，曾获得美国“商学院年度杰出教授”、“卓越教学奖”等奖项。
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0 有用 NeedNotToKnow 2025-07-27 18:24:09 北京
很有启发的一本小书
0 有用 飞碟脑袋 2016-03-21 10:58:00
在同类畅销书里算是内容很不错的一本。介绍了很多决策中的误区，配合了一些简单的统计学和博弈论的原理，举的例子很精当，有助于开阔视野拓展思维。感觉总体思想就是，万事自有章法，不要试图总结规律。整体内容还算丰富简明，语言平实而富于变化，作为学习英语的参考也不错。
0 有用 hbjerry 2023-08-13 06:26:13 美国
Library borrow
0 有用 专注 2016-09-24 04:57:24
epub
0 有用 七夕 2017-10-01 13:37:22
和中文的反直觉思考是一本。很好的一本书，结合了各种什么平克啊的学术思想。当投资分析师的人都是牛人