作者:
[美国]
纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布 出版社: Random House Trade Paperbacks 副标题: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" 出版年: 2010-5-11 页数: 480 定价: USD 17.00 装帧: Paperback ISBN: 9780812973815
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, ...
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés acros...
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
读的时候常想起芒格，black swan有点Lollapalooza的意思——extreme & unpredictable；
如何在Extremistan中生存下来，芒格也早就给了方向——“I want to know where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.”
『I'd rather have the opinion of a trader than a mathematician.』 - 格林斯潘。 所谓黑天鹅，是指具备了以下三个特征的事件： － 不可预测，人们事前往往低估其发生的可能性 － 造成极大影响 － 事后回头再看，又觉得此事发生的有理 比如最近的金融危机，就是一次典型的...
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纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布 作者
Jack
中信出版社2008版
铂程斋@喷嚏网
中信出版社2008版
jaque
中信出版社2008版
胖达叔
中信出版社2011版
方方土君
中信出版社2011版
阿北
Random House2007版
0 有用 QuietAmbassa 2021-01-11 14:32:13
Some interesting concepts. The author is very self-absorbed.
0 有用 风车 2025-10-26 18:27:52 上海
读的时候常想起芒格，black swan有点Lollapalooza的意思——extreme & unpredictable； 如何在Extremistan中生存下来，芒格也早就给了方向——“I want to know where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.”
1 有用 Grace_BC 2020-12-08 02:26:42
才一半就已经快听不下去了，我把所有嫌作者啰嗦的评论都赞了一遍p(^_^)q
0 有用 ClearMomo🌲🍀 2022-10-24 02:12:45 美国
弃
2 有用 新地 2021-12-31 14:55:48
有用提示：论正态分布的不真实性。因此应该避免黑天鹅出现的第四区域 没解释的重点：如何在黑天鹅发生之前识别什么是（或不是）黑天鹅 conclusion：in the long run we are all dead. 随缘吧。