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Cake day: July 23rd, 2024

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  • According to data from Metr, AI has been improving in its effectiveness at completing long tasks.

    Here we see the tasks that equal or exceed 50% success.

    On the other hand, we see tasks that equal or exceed 80% success.

    The trend may continue along these lines in the coming years, although there is a possibility that it will not.

    However, AI still has a long way to go before it can match the 8-hour workday in the United States if we count the 50%.

    But if we talk about 80%, it still has a long way to go.















  • Step 1: Put AI into production just to lower costs and increase efficiency

    Step 2: People get angry about AI in the process

    Step 3: Release a drug that doesn’t have “AI” in the process and has a higher selling price, even though it’s actually the same drug

    Step 4: People buy it en masse

    Step 5: Earn more money thanks to irrational hatred of AI

    Step 6: You convince the Democrats that M4F only has AI drugs. But there are also private insurers

    Step 7: People hire private insurance companies at higher prices and with misleading terms, just to get medications without “AIs.”

    Step 8: Pharmaceutical companies, insurance companies, and funeral homes make more money, while ordinary people become increasingly poorer.


  • “I think we are running out of low-hanging fruits to improve on,” says Xu. He added that the early agentic gains came from simple changes, “things like formatting errors, or not understanding tools […] I think we’re going to slow down until we find the next big thing.”

    Another AI winter? Another AI winter? (Possible in the medium or long term)

    Although we’ll also have to wait and see what John Carmack does, because he’s also involved in this.