From 0891d6e55d852a6f787ad2eea77e44d064dda6c3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: =?UTF-8?q?=E5=8D=93?= <creator.chen@foxmail.com>
Date: Sun, 16 Nov 2025 22:31:23 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Site updated: 2025-11-16 22:31:20

---
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diff --git "a/16\345\236\213\344\272\272\346\240\274\347\232\204\350\207\252\346\210\221\344\277\256\347\202\274.html" "b/16\345\236\213\344\272\272\346\240\274\347\232\204\350\207\252\346\210\221\344\277\256\347\202\274.html"
index 11d1f3703b..c409eff94d 100644
--- "a/16\345\236\213\344\272\272\346\240\274\347\232\204\350\207\252\346\210\221\344\277\256\347\202\274.html"
+++ "b/16\345\236\213\344\272\272\346\240\274\347\232\204\350\207\252\346\210\221\344\277\256\347\202\274.html"
@@ -261,7 +261,7 @@ <h1>INTP</h1>
 <p>有时没注意到他人的情绪感受，给人冷漠，不近人情的印象</p>
 </li>
 </ol>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">渊源</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">简解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">书评</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">各种性格第一印象</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">INTP</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/95\345\271\264\347\232\204Jobs\350\256\277\350\260\210.html" "b/95\345\271\264\347\232\204Jobs\350\256\277\350\260\210.html"
index ede3e68124..286fd28a1e 100644
--- "a/95\345\271\264\347\232\204Jobs\350\256\277\350\260\210.html"
+++ "b/95\345\271\264\347\232\204Jobs\350\256\277\350\260\210.html"
@@ -251,7 +251,7 @@ <h2 id="Do-something-when-you-young">Do something when you young</h2>
 <p>作为创新的先驱，Jobs也不是完美的人，工作、亲情和生活处理的并不平衡。选择过一个什么样的人生，跟价值观有关系，价值观为主观标准，并无绝对的对错。</p>
 <p>但努力的拥抱生活，改造世界，是我们应该有的人生态度。<font color="dodgerblue">We are here to be creators！</font>有梦想趁年轻勇敢去追！</p>
 </blockquote>
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href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%88%A4%E6%96%AD%E4%BD%A0%E7%94%BB%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E6%98%AF%E5%AF%B9%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%88%E5%A4%A7%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E4%B8%8B%E5%81%9A%E5%AF%B9%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何判断你画出的方向是对的（大背景下做对的事情）？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Do-something-when-you-young"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Do something when you young</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" 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diff --git "a/Apps\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\272\247\345\210\253\347\224\250\346\210\267\347\224\273\345\203\217.html" "b/Apps\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\272\247\345\210\253\347\224\250\346\210\267\347\224\273\345\203\217.html"
index ce2f5f3208..88a4d225dc 100644
--- "a/Apps\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\272\247\345\210\253\347\224\250\346\210\267\347\224\273\345\203\217.html"
+++ "b/Apps\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\272\247\345\210\253\347\224\250\346\210\267\347\224\273\345\203\217.html"
@@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ <h3 id="交叉分析">交叉分析</h3>
 <li>70后男女都会生活，一个限时养鱼，一个淘物美价廉物品。</li>
 <li>60后知天命，有些还在买卖东西，阿姨们可都在享福以种树养花为趣</li>
 </ul>
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class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B-%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">类型&amp;年龄特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏类</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社交类</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A8%B1%E4%B9%90%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">娱乐类:</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">工具类</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E5%8F%89%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> 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diff --git "a/DB\351\224\201.html" "b/DB\351\224\201.html"
index 8ff5aceed2..1459f858d6 100644
--- "a/DB\351\224\201.html"
+++ "b/DB\351\224\201.html"
@@ -219,7 +219,7 @@ <h3 id="Innodb的隔离级别">Innodb的隔离级别</h3>
 <h3 id="后记">后记</h3>
 <p>14 年当时想讲清的东西就很多，故此文一直未完工，但转去写了一个PPT，于2015年07月完工PPT，把想讲的内容都涵盖了。PPT上传过百度文库，也许有人看过。</p>
 <h3 id="参考">参考</h3>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">博客园 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.cnblogs.com/vinchen/archive/2012/11/19/2777919.html">MySQL使用可重复读作为默认隔离级别的原因 </a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">博客园 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.cnblogs.com/1-2-3/archive/2012/04/05/oracle-isolation-level-ora-08177.html">Oracle 数据库隔离级别，特性，问题和解决方法</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ITEYE <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://czmmiao.iteye.com/blog/930441">深究Oracle的隔离级别</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">51CTO <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.51cto.com/haicang/1085388">InnoDB行锁和表锁的分析</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" 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class="toc-text">Innodb的隔离级别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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class="toc-text">Innodb的隔离级别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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diff --git a/DevSecOps.html b/DevSecOps.html
index ec266189e9..77e0503a3e 100644
--- a/DevSecOps.html
+++ b/DevSecOps.html
@@ -632,7 +632,7 @@ <h2 id="添加新的hook点">添加新的hook点</h2>
 <p>支持自定义hook函数，开放的体系</p>
 <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/hook.html">https://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/hook.html</a></p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1830244">安全左移理念，鹅厂DevSecOps如何实践？</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">悬镜产品，<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.51cto.com/article/682518.html">《云原生下的IAST落地实践》</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">58集团，<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.anquanke.com/post/id/235226">白盒代码审计系统技术选型</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CodeQL入门，<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.buaq.net/go-82569.html">CodeQL从入门到放弃</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">云原生下企业应用安全现状</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全风险普遍存在</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#97-%E8%A2%AB%E6%B5%8B%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E6%9F%90%E7%A7%8D%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">97%被测目标存在某种形式的漏洞</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B3%84%E9%9C%B2%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据泄露事件分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动应用程序安全风险</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E5%A4%8D%E7%9B%98"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">漏洞复盘</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DevSecOps</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">措施策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%8B%E4%BD%93%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%8C%E7%AB%8B%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">立体问题，立体解决</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E8%87%AA%E8%B0%B7%E6%AD%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E8%B7%B5%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自谷歌的实践建议</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全指南的难点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">语言差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF%E5%85%B3%E8%81%94"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">场景关联</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%9A%E4%B8%BE%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">枚举的挑战</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E6%80%81%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%89%AB%E6%8F%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">静态安全扫描</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BA%90%E7%A0%81%E3%80%81AST%E3%80%81IR"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">源码、AST、IR</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AST%E4%B8%8E%E6%B1%A1%E7%82%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E7%BC%BA%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AST与污点分析的优缺对照</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E7%9B%92%E6%89%AB%E6%8F%8F%E6%88%98%E6%96%97%E6%9C%BACodeQL"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">白盒扫描战斗机CodeQL</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94-sup-id-fnref-3-a-href-fn-3-rel-footnote-span-class-%E2%80%9Chint%E2%80%93top-hint%E2%80%93error-hint%E2%80%93medium-hint%E2%80%93rounded-hint%E2%80%93bounce%E2%80%9D-aria-label-58%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%EF%BC%8C%E7%99%BD%E7%9B%92%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%AE%A1%E8%AE%A1%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E9%80%89%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">行业产品对比&lt;span class&#x3D;“hint–top hint–error hint–medium hint–rounded hint–bounce” aria-label&#x3D;&quot;58集团，白盒代码审计系统技术选型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#CodeQL"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">CodeQL</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代应用安全工具</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E6%80%81%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%EF%BC%88SAST%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">静态应用安全测试（SAST）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%80%81%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%EF%BC%88DAST%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">动态应用程序安全测试（DAST）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#SAST%EF%BC%88%E7%99%BD%E7%9B%92%EF%BC%89vs-DAST%EF%BC%88%E9%BB%91%E7%9B%92%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SAST（白盒）vs DAST（黑盒）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%EF%BC%88SCA%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件组合分析（SCA）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E4%BA%92%E5%BC%8F%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%EF%BC%88IAST%E2%80%93%E7%81%B0%E7%9B%92%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">交互式应用安全测试（IAST–灰盒）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">机制解释</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E4%BA%92%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">交互性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%92%E6%A1%A9%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">插桩检测</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#SAST-DAST%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SAST&amp;DAST混合</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E5%90%8E%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">4.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">漏洞发现后处理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%A5%E8%AF%9D%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">4.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">一句话总结</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%A1%E7%82%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E4%B8%89%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE"><span class="toc-number">4.5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">污点分析实现三关键</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%A1%E7%82%B9%E8%BF%BD%E8%B8%AA%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">污点追踪漏洞发现举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#OpenRASP-IAST"><span class="toc-number">4.5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">OpenRASP-IAST</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E7%9A%84%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目前支持的漏洞检测</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A2%AB%E5%8A%A8%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F-fuzz%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95"><span class="toc-number">4.5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">被动模式+fuzz测试</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E8%A1%8C%E6%97%B6%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4%EF%BC%88RASP%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">运行时应用程序自我保护（RASP）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E7%86%9FRASP%E4%B8%89%E6%9E%84%E6%88%90"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成熟RASP三构成</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8F%92%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全插件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E6%94%BB%E5%87%BB%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B%E5%BC%95%E6%93%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI攻击检测引擎</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%9C%E8%A5%BF%E5%90%91%E6%B5%81%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解释：东西向流量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理平台</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B%E7%AE%80%E4%BB%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作流程简介</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQL%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQL检测举例</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">R(I)ASP补充信息</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Java%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E5%8E%9F%E7%90%86%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Java版本工作原理介绍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#php%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">php版本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">系统架构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hook%E5%87%BD%E6%95%B0%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hook函数列表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%BB%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84hook%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">添加新的hook点</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">云原生下企业应用安全现状</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全风险普遍存在</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#97-%E8%A2%AB%E6%B5%8B%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E6%9F%90%E7%A7%8D%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">97%被测目标存在某种形式的漏洞</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B3%84%E9%9C%B2%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据泄露事件分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动应用程序安全风险</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E5%A4%8D%E7%9B%98"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">漏洞复盘</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DevSecOps</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">措施策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%8B%E4%BD%93%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%8C%E7%AB%8B%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">立体问题，立体解决</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E8%87%AA%E8%B0%B7%E6%AD%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E8%B7%B5%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自谷歌的实践建议</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全指南的难点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">语言差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF%E5%85%B3%E8%81%94"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">场景关联</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%9A%E4%B8%BE%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">枚举的挑战</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E6%80%81%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%89%AB%E6%8F%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">静态安全扫描</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BA%90%E7%A0%81%E3%80%81AST%E3%80%81IR"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">源码、AST、IR</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AST%E4%B8%8E%E6%B1%A1%E7%82%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E7%BC%BA%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AST与污点分析的优缺对照</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E7%9B%92%E6%89%AB%E6%8F%8F%E6%88%98%E6%96%97%E6%9C%BACodeQL"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">白盒扫描战斗机CodeQL</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94-sup-id-fnref-3-a-href-fn-3-rel-footnote-span-class-%E2%80%9Chint%E2%80%93top-hint%E2%80%93error-hint%E2%80%93medium-hint%E2%80%93rounded-hint%E2%80%93bounce%E2%80%9D-aria-label-58%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%EF%BC%8C%E7%99%BD%E7%9B%92%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%AE%A1%E8%AE%A1%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E9%80%89%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">行业产品对比&lt;span class&#x3D;“hint–top hint–error hint–medium hint–rounded hint–bounce” aria-label&#x3D;&quot;58集团，白盒代码审计系统技术选型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#CodeQL"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">CodeQL</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代应用安全工具</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E6%80%81%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%EF%BC%88SAST%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">静态应用安全测试（SAST）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%80%81%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%EF%BC%88DAST%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">动态应用程序安全测试（DAST）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#SAST%EF%BC%88%E7%99%BD%E7%9B%92%EF%BC%89vs-DAST%EF%BC%88%E9%BB%91%E7%9B%92%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SAST（白盒）vs DAST（黑盒）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%EF%BC%88SCA%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件组合分析（SCA）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E4%BA%92%E5%BC%8F%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%EF%BC%88IAST%E2%80%93%E7%81%B0%E7%9B%92%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">交互式应用安全测试（IAST–灰盒）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">机制解释</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E4%BA%92%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">交互性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%92%E6%A1%A9%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">插桩检测</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#SAST-DAST%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SAST&amp;DAST混合</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E5%90%8E%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">4.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">漏洞发现后处理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%A5%E8%AF%9D%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">4.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">一句话总结</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%A1%E7%82%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E4%B8%89%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE"><span class="toc-number">4.5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">污点分析实现三关键</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%A1%E7%82%B9%E8%BF%BD%E8%B8%AA%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">污点追踪漏洞发现举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#OpenRASP-IAST"><span class="toc-number">4.5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">OpenRASP-IAST</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E7%9A%84%E6%BC%8F%E6%B4%9E%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目前支持的漏洞检测</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A2%AB%E5%8A%A8%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F-fuzz%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95"><span class="toc-number">4.5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">被动模式+fuzz测试</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E8%A1%8C%E6%97%B6%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4%EF%BC%88RASP%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">运行时应用程序自我保护（RASP）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E7%86%9FRASP%E4%B8%89%E6%9E%84%E6%88%90"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成熟RASP三构成</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8F%92%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全插件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E6%94%BB%E5%87%BB%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B%E5%BC%95%E6%93%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI攻击检测引擎</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%9C%E8%A5%BF%E5%90%91%E6%B5%81%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解释：东西向流量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理平台</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B%E7%AE%80%E4%BB%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作流程简介</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQL%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQL检测举例</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">R(I)ASP补充信息</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Java%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E5%8E%9F%E7%90%86%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Java版本工作原理介绍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#php%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">php版本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">系统架构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hook%E5%87%BD%E6%95%B0%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hook函数列表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%BB%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84hook%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">添加新的hook点</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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diff --git "a/IT\347\263\273\347\273\237\345\256\211\345\205\250\346\226\271\346\241\210\345\257\274\350\256\272.html" "b/IT\347\263\273\347\273\237\345\256\211\345\205\250\346\226\271\346\241\210\345\257\274\350\256\272.html"
index 33d6cdb329..f9e60f191b 100644
--- "a/IT\347\263\273\347\273\237\345\256\211\345\205\250\346\226\271\346\241\210\345\257\274\350\256\272.html"
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@@ -357,7 +357,7 @@ <h3 id="质量流程">质量流程</h3>
 <li>代码高危函数扫描</li>
 <li>异常信息上报收集跟进</li>
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toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AD%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">狭义安全的本质</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AD%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%BE%E5%88%86%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%A4%E5%A4%A7%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">狭义安全的体系建设分为两大部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E5%8F%8A%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">IT系统的特征及网络时代的安全挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">网络时代的安全挑战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E4%BA%91%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%95%86%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">选择云服务商的三大原因</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%89%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全落地三要素</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%BF%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E9%A2%84%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">广义安全的系统预案</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E4%B8%8E%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E9%AB%98%E5%8F%AF%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">异常发现与系统高可用</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%BE%E5%A4%87-%E6%81%A2%E5%A4%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">灾备&amp;恢复</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">质量流程</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%B2%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">纲要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AD%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">狭义安全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%BF%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">广义安全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E4%B8%89%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息安全三要素</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AD%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">狭义安全的本质</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AD%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%BE%E5%88%86%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%A4%E5%A4%A7%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">狭义安全的体系建设分为两大部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E5%8F%8A%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">IT系统的特征及网络时代的安全挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">网络时代的安全挑战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E4%BA%91%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%95%86%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">选择云服务商的三大原因</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%89%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全落地三要素</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%BF%E4%B9%89%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E9%A2%84%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">广义安全的系统预案</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E4%B8%8E%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E9%AB%98%E5%8F%AF%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">异常发现与系统高可用</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%BE%E5%A4%87-%E6%81%A2%E5%A4%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">灾备&amp;恢复</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">质量流程</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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diff --git "a/LVS\344\270\211\347\261\273\345\267\245\344\275\234\346\250\241\345\274\217.html" "b/LVS\344\270\211\347\261\273\345\267\245\344\275\234\346\250\241\345\274\217.html"
index 53de7cf7e3..9267644873 100644
--- "a/LVS\344\270\211\347\261\273\345\267\245\344\275\234\346\250\241\345\274\217.html"
+++ "b/LVS\344\270\211\347\261\273\345\267\245\344\275\234\346\250\241\345\274\217.html"
@@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ <h2 id="后记">后记</h2>
 <blockquote>
 <p>当前7层负载均衡，如Nginx已经让程序员大呼方便，但7层的效率肯定比不了在3层的处理效率，聊以此文，作为LVS工作模式简短总结介绍。</p>
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class="toc-text">作者语述</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%AC%E6%A0%B8%E6%AD%A3%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">硬核正题</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#NAT%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">NAT模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#DR%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">DR模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#TUN%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">TUN模式</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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diff --git a/Me-vs.-Me.html b/Me-vs.-Me.html
index 43a70e27e8..d965fef2ef 100644
--- a/Me-vs.-Me.html
+++ b/Me-vs.-Me.html
@@ -246,7 +246,7 @@
 <blockquote>
 <p>他们的旅程是他们的，我的旅程是我的。</p>
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diff --git a/OKR-VS-KPI.html b/OKR-VS-KPI.html
index bb573a18ae..9f0cf155c4 100644
--- a/OKR-VS-KPI.html
+++ b/OKR-VS-KPI.html
@@ -256,7 +256,7 @@ <h2 id="管理动作-制度不要超越了你的经营水平">管理动作/制
 <p>上一段吹了那么多，不是说KPI族的更细的可衡量不对，生产制造型或可预测型的工种或领域，强调可量化还是挺有意义的，不同行业的从业人员工作性质和特点不同，管理方式也不同。</p>
 <p>别人的东西用得再好，最终还是要因地制宜（结合所处的经营水平），华为先僵化再优化的路线，是个好路子（也有它的市场和经营阶段支撑它要&amp;能坚持下来），再比如说丰田只有一个，谷歌也还没出现第二个一样，各家都有公开的明星做法，你学却你“死”。</p>
 <p>都是工具，服务好解决问题就好。</p>
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href="#%E6%8D%A2%E4%B8%80%E7%A7%8D%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E9%98%90%E8%BF%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">换一种角度阐述</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">最本质区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A9%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%92%8C%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E4%B8%80%E7%A7%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">让自由和方向达成一种平衡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%8A%A8%E4%BD%9C-%E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A%E4%BA%86%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E6%B0%B4%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理动作&#x2F;制度不要超越了你的经营水平</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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href="#%E6%8D%A2%E4%B8%80%E7%A7%8D%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E9%98%90%E8%BF%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">换一种角度阐述</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">最本质区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A9%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%92%8C%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E4%B8%80%E7%A7%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">让自由和方向达成一种平衡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%8A%A8%E4%BD%9C-%E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A%E4%BA%86%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E6%B0%B4%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理动作&#x2F;制度不要超越了你的经营水平</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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diff --git "a/PRC\347\232\204\351\201\223\350\267\257.html" "b/PRC\347\232\204\351\201\223\350\267\257.html"
index 7c1d777edb..f0dc21f496 100644
--- "a/PRC\347\232\204\351\201\223\350\267\257.html"
+++ "b/PRC\347\232\204\351\201\223\350\267\257.html"
@@ -352,7 +352,7 @@ <h2 id="征税再平衡">征税再平衡</h2>
 <p>富人确实在创造岗位，我们也需要创新者，但没有谁能单靠自己创造巨量财富，我们需要一个持续运作的社会基础设施，<font color="dodgerblue">英雄的成功也只是创造了部分，所有人的成就都基于前几代人的努力还有纳税资助的研究，所以他们应该缴税，但不是全部上交</font>。</p>
 <p><strong>向富人征税，是为了构建基础设施（机会、医疗保健）</strong>，就像大学就是一个好投资，常返回超 10 倍的输出。相较而言，美国<u>一切都在私有化，这就是资本主义意识形态失控的表现</u>。资本主义在某些方面是好的，但教育应该是免费的，至少对负担不起学费的阶级免费。</p>
 <p>中国的领导层知道需要科技，所以在这里的大学学费很便宜，中国在这些年中的科技进步离不开理工科教育的大规模投入和供给。</p>
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href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E9%81%93%E8%B7%AF%E5%9C%A8-75-%E5%B9%B4%E5%89%8D%E8%B5%B0%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%9A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何资本主义道路在 75 年前走不通？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#PRC-%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E4%B8%89%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">PRC 开始三十年的成就</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E5%85%B1%E4%B8%A4%E5%85%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">国共两党的对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%9D%E9%B2%9C%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F%E4%BA%86%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">朝鲜战争加速了社会主义路线</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#PRC-%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%9B%E5%9C%BA%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">PRC 的四场社会实验</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%93%E7%A0%B4%E9%98%B6%E7%BA%A7%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E5%9D%87%E7%AD%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">打破阶级实现均等</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">拥抱科技拥抱人性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A2%E7%B4%A2%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">探索资源配置方式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BC%93%E8%A7%A3%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">缓解社会冲突</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E8%8E%B1%E5%A3%AB%E9%87%87%E8%AE%BF%E9%82%93"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">华莱士采访邓</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%99%E7%9D%80%E5%9B%9E%E5%A4%B4%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">站着回头看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%A7%A3%E6%94%BE%E5%86%9B%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E5%8F%97%E6%AC%A2%E8%BF%8E%E7%88%B1%E6%88%B4"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么解放军那么受欢迎爱戴</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E5%91%98%E7%BB%99%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E9%80%A0%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%AA%E6%A2%A6"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">教员给中国底层造了个梦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A2%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%8C%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">梦的希望</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%B8%8E%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社与资的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%BF%E6%8D%8F%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E7%A4%BE%E8%B5%84%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拿捏平衡社资融合</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%BA%B8%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E%E6%9C%80%E4%BC%98%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">中庸现实最优解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">计划经济的问题</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%A4%B1%E7%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">8.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息失真</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96%E6%BB%9E%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">8.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">决策滞后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E6%97%A0%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">8.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新无力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%81%B6%E6%80%A7%E9%A3%9E%E8%BD%AE"><span class="toc-number">8.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">恶性飞轮</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A0%E5%AF%B9%E5%A4%96%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E5%90%AF%E5%8A%A8%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">靠对外开放启动的中国市场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E7%9C%8B%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">回看市场经济</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%85%E5%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">国家资本主义的巅峰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B%E5%9B%9B%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">回望四十年发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E4%BC%A0%E7%BB%9F"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化传统</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">政府贡献</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7%E6%98%AF%E5%9B%A0%E4%B8%BA%E9%83%BD%E6%83%B3%E5%BD%93%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8A%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">内卷是因为都想当人上人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%81%E7%A8%8E%E5%86%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">征税再平衡</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E4%B8%8A%E5%93%AA%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%9D%E4%BB%A3%E5%BC%80%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%BE%E5%BA%A6%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国历史上哪个朝代开国难度最高？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E9%81%93%E8%B7%AF%E5%9C%A8-75-%E5%B9%B4%E5%89%8D%E8%B5%B0%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%9A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何资本主义道路在 75 年前走不通？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#PRC-%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E4%B8%89%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">PRC 开始三十年的成就</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E5%85%B1%E4%B8%A4%E5%85%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">国共两党的对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%9D%E9%B2%9C%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F%E4%BA%86%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">朝鲜战争加速了社会主义路线</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#PRC-%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%9B%E5%9C%BA%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">PRC 的四场社会实验</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%93%E7%A0%B4%E9%98%B6%E7%BA%A7%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E5%9D%87%E7%AD%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">打破阶级实现均等</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">拥抱科技拥抱人性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A2%E7%B4%A2%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">探索资源配置方式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BC%93%E8%A7%A3%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">缓解社会冲突</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E8%8E%B1%E5%A3%AB%E9%87%87%E8%AE%BF%E9%82%93"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">华莱士采访邓</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%99%E7%9D%80%E5%9B%9E%E5%A4%B4%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">站着回头看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%A7%A3%E6%94%BE%E5%86%9B%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E5%8F%97%E6%AC%A2%E8%BF%8E%E7%88%B1%E6%88%B4"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么解放军那么受欢迎爱戴</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E5%91%98%E7%BB%99%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E9%80%A0%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%AA%E6%A2%A6"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">教员给中国底层造了个梦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A2%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%8C%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">梦的希望</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%B8%8E%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社与资的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%BF%E6%8D%8F%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E7%A4%BE%E8%B5%84%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拿捏平衡社资融合</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%BA%B8%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E%E6%9C%80%E4%BC%98%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">中庸现实最优解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">计划经济的问题</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%A4%B1%E7%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">8.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息失真</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96%E6%BB%9E%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">8.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">决策滞后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E6%97%A0%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">8.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新无力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%81%B6%E6%80%A7%E9%A3%9E%E8%BD%AE"><span class="toc-number">8.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">恶性飞轮</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A0%E5%AF%B9%E5%A4%96%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E5%90%AF%E5%8A%A8%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">靠对外开放启动的中国市场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E7%9C%8B%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">回看市场经济</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%85%E5%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">国家资本主义的巅峰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B%E5%9B%9B%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">回望四十年发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E4%BC%A0%E7%BB%9F"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化传统</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">政府贡献</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7%E6%98%AF%E5%9B%A0%E4%B8%BA%E9%83%BD%E6%83%B3%E5%BD%93%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8A%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">内卷是因为都想当人上人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%81%E7%A8%8E%E5%86%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">征税再平衡</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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diff --git "a/Python\347\232\204\350\265\267\346\272\220\345\222\214\350\256\244\350\257\206.html" "b/Python\347\232\204\350\265\267\346\272\220\345\222\214\350\256\244\350\257\206.html"
index 6d9424bf3a..6d0d5312f2 100644
--- "a/Python\347\232\204\350\265\267\346\272\220\345\222\214\350\256\244\350\257\206.html"
+++ "b/Python\347\232\204\350\265\267\346\272\220\345\222\214\350\256\244\350\257\206.html"
@@ -353,7 +353,7 @@ <h2 id="Python3对Python2的抛弃">Python3对Python2的抛弃</h2>
 <li>改进的编程功能：函数注解，类型提示，先进的异步编程等，更易读更易维护</li>
 </ul>
 <h2 id="引用">引用</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">博客园 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.cnblogs.com/xtuz/p/12402372.html">Python的起源</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知乎 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/60077260">Python早期设计与开发：从ABC到Python</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">刘缙 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/25307289/answer/104643646">Lua 的速度为什么比 Python 快？</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">36Kr <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://36kr.com/p/1239740242732680">Python 之父：移动设备中的 Python 应用“又大又慢”</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">36kr <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://36kr.com/p/1933174564702592">对话Python之父：人类大脑才是软件开发效率的天花板</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">标点符 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.biaodianfu.com/python-intro.html">认识Python：起源与发展</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E6%98%8EPython%E7%9A%84%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">发明Python的背景</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ABC%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ABC语言</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">特点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AA%E8%83%BD%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">未能流行的原因</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E8%89%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python的特色</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80-%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%87%E5%87%86%E5%BA%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小的核心语言+大的标准库</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E9%9B%85-%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE-%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E7%9A%84%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">优雅-明确-简单的哲学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python%E4%B8%8EC%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python与C的不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85%E5%AF%B9Python%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">作者对Python的目标</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%98%E6%80%81%E7%BC%A9%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">变态缩进</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%92%E5%87%BA%E4%BA%8E%E8%93%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">青出于蓝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85%E7%9A%84%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">作者的程序哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">底层概念与复杂体系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E4%B8%8E%E5%90%88%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">开放与合作</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E7%88%B1Pascal%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E9%9B%85"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">最爱Pascal的优雅</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%84%9F%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%93%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标感与当下主义者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E5%A0%82%E4%B8%8E%E9%9B%86%E5%B8%82"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">教堂与集市</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%80%A7%E8%BF%98%E6%97%A0%E9%93%B6%E5%BC%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">创造性还无银弹</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E4%B8%8APython%E4%B8%8D%E5%A4%AA%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动设备上Python不太成功</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%BF%99%E4%B9%88%E6%85%A2%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python为什么这么慢？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能好的语言</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python3%E5%AF%B9Python2%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%9B%E5%BC%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python3对Python2的抛弃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E6%98%8EPython%E7%9A%84%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">发明Python的背景</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ABC%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ABC语言</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">特点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AA%E8%83%BD%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">未能流行的原因</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E8%89%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python的特色</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80-%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%87%E5%87%86%E5%BA%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小的核心语言+大的标准库</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E9%9B%85-%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE-%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E7%9A%84%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">优雅-明确-简单的哲学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python%E4%B8%8EC%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python与C的不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85%E5%AF%B9Python%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">作者对Python的目标</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%98%E6%80%81%E7%BC%A9%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">变态缩进</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%92%E5%87%BA%E4%BA%8E%E8%93%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">青出于蓝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85%E7%9A%84%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">作者的程序哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">底层概念与复杂体系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E4%B8%8E%E5%90%88%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">开放与合作</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E7%88%B1Pascal%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E9%9B%85"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">最爱Pascal的优雅</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%84%9F%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%93%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标感与当下主义者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E5%A0%82%E4%B8%8E%E9%9B%86%E5%B8%82"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">教堂与集市</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%80%A7%E8%BF%98%E6%97%A0%E9%93%B6%E5%BC%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">创造性还无银弹</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E4%B8%8APython%E4%B8%8D%E5%A4%AA%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动设备上Python不太成功</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%BF%99%E4%B9%88%E6%85%A2%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python为什么这么慢？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能好的语言</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Python3%E5%AF%B9Python2%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%9B%E5%BC%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Python3对Python2的抛弃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/RPA-POC\350\247\202\345\257\237.html" "b/RPA-POC\350\247\202\345\257\237.html"
index 7c4173863e..cd995d0afa 100644
--- "a/RPA-POC\350\247\202\345\257\237.html"
+++ "b/RPA-POC\350\247\202\345\257\237.html"
@@ -247,7 +247,7 @@ <h3 id="毕马威（KPMG）">毕马威（KPMG）</h3>
 <p>来的人就几个，阵仗不大，评审人反馈过往的合作也一直比较实在老实，但后来报价很机械（反向佐证？）</p>
 <h3 id="德勤">德勤</h3>
 <p>来的售前阵仗最大，从香港跑过来一批合伙人大佬，装束精致，给招标方一种非常高规格的感觉，大佬们不懂技术，但话讲的漂亮</p>
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class="toc-text">CloudNative</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Serverless%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E5%BD%A2%E6%80%81%E6%97%A9%E5%B7%B2%E6%9C%89%E4%B9%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Serverless产品形态早已有之</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2015%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2015概念加速</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Serverless%E4%B8%8E%E5%BE%AE%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Serverless与微服务的异同</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ServerLess%E5%B8%A6%E6%9D%A5%E4%BA%86%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ServerLess带来了什么不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Serverless%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Serverless四大特性</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git a/Tittytainment.html b/Tittytainment.html
index e5fa24c667..d8e671d174 100644
--- a/Tittytainment.html
+++ b/Tittytainment.html
@@ -266,7 +266,7 @@ <h1>结语</h1>
 <p><strong>教育从来问题多多，从来没有得到根本的解决，因为教育不等于教育制度，教育是个体的事情，教育制度的根本目的是维系社会稳定</strong></p>
 </li>
 </ul>
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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">奶头乐</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%8C%E5%8F%91-%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E6%B8%85%E9%99%A4%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">萌发-人类清除计划背后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B6%E5%98%B4%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E7%A7%8D%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">奶嘴的两种形式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E8%B6%8A%E5%8F%8D%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏越反越多</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏数据</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E6%88%90%E7%98%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E5%92%8C%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏成瘾的原因和对策？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A3%8E%E6%BD%AE%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span 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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">奶头乐</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%8C%E5%8F%91-%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E6%B8%85%E9%99%A4%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">萌发-人类清除计划背后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B6%E5%98%B4%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E7%A7%8D%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">奶嘴的两种形式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E8%B6%8A%E5%8F%8D%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏越反越多</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏数据</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E6%88%90%E7%98%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E5%92%8C%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏成瘾的原因和对策？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A3%8E%E6%BD%AE%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/Yarn\350\265\204\346\272\220\350\260\203\345\272\246\347\255\226\347\225\245.html" "b/Yarn\350\265\204\346\272\220\350\260\203\345\272\246\347\255\226\347\225\245.html"
index 9041c27b7f..a452347a32 100644
--- "a/Yarn\350\265\204\346\272\220\350\260\203\345\272\246\347\255\226\347\225\245.html"
+++ "b/Yarn\350\265\204\346\272\220\350\260\203\345\272\246\347\255\226\347\225\245.html"
@@ -263,7 +263,7 @@ <h5 id="资源公平共享">资源公平共享</h5>
 <blockquote>
 <p>默认调度算法的考量因子是memory，但是也可以也可以设置DRF(Dominant Resource Fairness)，会考虑mem和vcore的资源</p>
 </blockquote>
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class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开宗明义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E5%99%A8%E8%AF%A6%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">调度器详解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#FIFO-Scheduler"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">FIFO Scheduler</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Capacity-Scheduler"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Capacity Scheduler</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B9%E9%87%8F%E4%BF%9D%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">容量保证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%B9%E6%80%A7%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">弹性调度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E7%A7%9F%E6%88%B7%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">多租户管理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E9%9A%94%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全隔离</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Fair-Scheduler"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Fair Scheduler</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%AA%E6%A0%97%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举个栗子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8ECapacity-Scheduler%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E4%B9%8B%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">与Capacity Scheduler不同之处</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li 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class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开宗明义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E5%99%A8%E8%AF%A6%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">调度器详解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#FIFO-Scheduler"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">FIFO Scheduler</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Capacity-Scheduler"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Capacity Scheduler</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B9%E9%87%8F%E4%BF%9D%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">容量保证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%B9%E6%80%A7%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">弹性调度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E7%A7%9F%E6%88%B7%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">多租户管理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E9%9A%94%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全隔离</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Fair-Scheduler"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Fair Scheduler</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%AA%E6%A0%97%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举个栗子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8ECapacity-Scheduler%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E4%B9%8B%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">与Capacity Scheduler不同之处</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%8A%A2%E5%8D%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">支持资源抢占</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E8%B4%9F%E8%BD%BD%E5%9D%87%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">自定义负载均衡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3%E5%85%B1%E4%BA%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源公平共享</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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21:31:21">2007-04-22</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time 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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201112190431.png" alt="软件哲学" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学">软件哲学</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT哲学</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2007-04-22T13:31:21.000Z" title="发表于 2007-04-22 21:31:21">2007-04-22</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div 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alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2008-05-11T15:05:21.000Z" title="发表于 2008-05-11 23:05:21">2008-05-11</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 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2008-09-12 01:12:21">2008-09-12</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 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onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div 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2008-09-12 01:12:21">2008-09-12</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html" title="为什么女性有永久性乳房"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201119202156.png" alt="为什么女性有永久性乳房" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html" title="为什么女性有永久性乳房">为什么女性有永久性乳房</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>生物</span></a></span><div 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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%81%AF%E4%BA%AE%E7%9D%80%E5%90%97.html" title="你的灯亮着吗"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201119140946.png" alt="你的灯亮着吗" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%81%AF%E4%BA%AE%E7%9D%80%E5%90%97.html" title="你的灯亮着吗">你的灯亮着吗</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E8%AE%BA/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>方法论</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2008-09-11T17:12:21.000Z" title="发表于 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class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2008-05-11T15:05:21.000Z" title="发表于 2008-05-11 23:05:21">2008-05-11</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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diff --git a/archives/2009/index.html b/archives/2009/index.html
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diff --git a/archives/2014/05/index.html b/archives/2014/05/index.html
index d684f545e1..7d7ff10982 100644
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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html" title="最高级的想象力是不自由的"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241218193951.png" alt="最高级的想象力是不自由的" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html" title="最高级的想象力是不自由的">最高级的想象力是不自由的</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-30T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-30 15:32:00">2014-05-30</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251021190058.png" alt="DB锁" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁">DB锁</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-27T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-27 15:32:00">2014-05-27</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251020135535.png" alt="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量">我们到底知道多少之意念的力量</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-26T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-26 18:00:00">2014-05-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7IPO%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83.html" title="从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241218164530.png" alt="从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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diff --git a/archives/2014/index.html b/archives/2014/index.html
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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%B7%B3%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.html" title="跳到你的高维空间"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.jpg" alt="跳到你的高维空间" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%B7%B3%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.html" title="跳到你的高维空间">跳到你的高维空间</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%89%A9%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>物理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-12-18T07:48:06.000Z" title="发表于 2014-12-18 15:48:06">2014-12-18</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/95%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84Jobs%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88.html" title="95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/jobs.jpg" alt="95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/95%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84Jobs%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88.html" title="95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理">95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>团队</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>访谈</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-10-08T10:32:06.000Z" title="发表于 2014-10-08 18:32:06">2014-10-08</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%8E%A5%E7%BA%B3%E4%B8%8D%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E4%B9%A6%E6%91%98.html" title="接纳不完美的自己书摘"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008232710.png" alt="接纳不完美的自己书摘" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%8E%A5%E7%BA%B3%E4%B8%8D%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E4%B9%A6%E6%91%98.html" title="接纳不完美的自己书摘">接纳不完美的自己书摘</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-09-25T12:28:54.000Z" title="发表于 2014-09-25 20:28:54">2014-09-25</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html" title="精品年代的竞争"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220608160902.png" alt="精品年代的竞争" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%93%E9%87%8D.html" title="软件的体重"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240523152646.png" alt="软件的体重" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%93%E9%87%8D.html" title="软件的体重">软件的体重</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">6</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT哲学</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-06-18T07:30:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-06-18 15:30:00">2014-06-18</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7.html" title="从技术到管理转型的几个技巧"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241219133030.png" alt="从技术到管理转型的几个技巧" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7.html" title="从技术到管理转型的几个技巧">从技术到管理转型的几个技巧</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">7</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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href="https://github.com/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html" title="最高级的想象力是不自由的">最高级的想象力是不自由的</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">8</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-30T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-30 15:32:00">2014-05-30</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251021190058.png" alt="DB锁" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁">DB锁</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">9</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-27T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-27 15:32:00">2014-05-27</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量"><img 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15:30:00">2014-06-18</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7.html" title="从技术到管理转型的几个技巧"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241219133030.png" alt="从技术到管理转型的几个技巧" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7.html" title="从技术到管理转型的几个技巧">从技术到管理转型的几个技巧</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">7</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img 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datetime="2015-11-03T09:15:00.000Z" title="发表于 2015-11-03 17:15:00">2015-11-03</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9B%B8%E8%81%9A.html" title="毕业十年相聚"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251022173231.png" alt="毕业十年相聚" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9B%B8%E8%81%9A.html" title="毕业十年相聚">毕业十年相聚</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>日记</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2015-07-28T12:14:21.000Z" title="发表于 2015-07-28 20:14:21">2015-07-28</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E4%BA%A4%E5%8F%8B.html" title="互联网交友"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/%E4%BA%A4%E5%8F%8B%E5%B0%81%E9%9D%A2.png" alt="互联网交友" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E4%BA%A4%E5%8F%8B.html" title="互联网交友">互联网交友</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i 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title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img 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diff --git a/archives/2018/index.html b/archives/2018/index.html
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datetime="2018-12-03T04:59:57.000Z" title="发表于 2018-12-03 12:59:57">2018-12-03</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/OKR-VS-KPI.html" title="OKR VS KPI"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201215151945.png" alt="OKR VS KPI" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/OKR-VS-KPI.html" title="OKR VS KPI">OKR VS KPI</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>团队</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" 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title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img 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class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2019-12-24T10:32:06.000Z" title="发表于 2019-12-24 18:32:06">2019-12-24</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%8D%8F%E5%90%8C%E8%BF%87%E6%BB%A4%E5%B0%8F%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0.html" title="协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220214134420.png" alt="协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8D%8F%E5%90%8C%E8%BF%87%E6%BB%A4%E5%B0%8F%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0.html" title="协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记">协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/AI/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>AI</span></a><a 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href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9E%97%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%BD%E7%83%AD%E9%97%B9.html" title="中台的林子好热闹">中台的林子好热闹</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>架构</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2019-04-09T03:37:06.000Z" title="发表于 2019-04-09 11:37:06">2019-04-09</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E9%87%8F%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="城市用电量大数据"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210512102600.png" alt="城市用电量大数据" 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19:55:06">2021-02-25</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E4%B8%8E%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90.html" title="深度关系与精神资源"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210223150937.png" alt="深度关系与精神资源" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E4%B8%8E%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90.html" title="深度关系与精神资源">深度关系与精神资源</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>地理</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>生物</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-03-26T16:05:06.000Z" title="发表于 2021-03-27 00:05:06">2021-03-27</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" alt="穷查理宝典" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><span 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src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210316215455.png" alt="豫南迁徙史简记" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%B1%AB%E5%8D%97%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E5%8F%B2%E7%AE%80%E8%AE%B0.html" title="豫南迁徙史简记">豫南迁徙史简记</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>地理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-03-16T13:58:21.000Z" 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diff --git a/archives/2021/index.html b/archives/2021/index.html
index 723cfeddba..7e5d4023cd 100644
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href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>生物</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-02-17T08:43:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-02-17 16:43:00">2022-02-17</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%AA%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%A7%E9%B1%BC%E8%B6%8A%E8%B4%B5.html" title="风浪越大鱼越贵"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230424153917.png" alt="风浪越大鱼越贵" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%AA%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%A7%E9%B1%BC%E8%B6%8A%E8%B4%B5.html" title="风浪越大鱼越贵">风浪越大鱼越贵</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" 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src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 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diff --git a/archives/2023/index.html b/archives/2023/index.html
index 578b975cee..62a5684f5a 100644
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class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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diff --git a/archives/2024/index.html b/archives/2024/index.html
index b0f4ec836f..80e40908b6 100644
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18:00:00">2024-12-31</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%9B%E9%80%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html" title="企业人才的筛选模型"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241217143015.png" alt="企业人才的筛选模型" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%9B%E9%80%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html" title="企业人才的筛选模型">企业人才的筛选模型</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%BB%8F%E7%AE%A1/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>经管</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" 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title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 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datetime="2025-10-26T16:13:30.000Z" title="发表于 2025-10-27 00:13:30">2025-10-27</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%99%BD%E8%AF%9D%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7.html" title="白话内卷"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251024195306.png" alt="白话内卷" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%99%BD%E8%AF%9D%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7.html" title="白话内卷">白话内卷</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>时代</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time 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diff --git a/archives/2025/page/2/index.html b/archives/2025/page/2/index.html
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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.html" title="中国汽车数据分析"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250926232709.png" alt="中国汽车数据分析" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.html" title="中国汽车数据分析">中国汽车数据分析</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">6</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>行业</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-09-26T16:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-09-27 00:00:00">2025-09-27</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E9%A4%90%E6%8A%B5%E5%BE%A1%E9%A5%AE%E9%A3%9F%E8%A5%BF%E5%8C%96.html" title="中餐的生命力"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250926212522.png" alt="中餐的生命力" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E9%A4%90%E6%8A%B5%E5%BE%A1%E9%A5%AE%E9%A3%9F%E8%A5%BF%E5%8C%96.html" title="中餐的生命力">中餐的生命力</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">7</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>文化</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-09-26T13:55:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-09-26 21:55:00">2025-09-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%B8%B8%E7%94%A8LaTeX%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7.html" title="常用LaTeX符号"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250925145753.png" alt="常用LaTeX符号" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%B8%B8%E7%94%A8LaTeX%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7.html" title="常用LaTeX符号">常用LaTeX符号</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">8</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-01-09T06:50:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-01-09 14:50:00">2025-01-09</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD.html" title="平均预期寿命理解"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250105090227.png" alt="平均预期寿命理解" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D.html" title="世界神话体系简观"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250104232827.png" alt="世界神话体系简观" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D.html" title="世界神话体系简观">世界神话体系简观</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">21</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-01-04T15:33:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-01-04 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onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div 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href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%B2%E5%AD%90/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>亲子</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-09-18T10:30:06.000Z" title="发表于 2025-09-18 18:30:06">2025-09-18</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98.html" title="和田玉的下沉演变"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250716132428.png" alt="和田玉的下沉演变" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98.html" title="和田玉的下沉演变">和田玉的下沉演变</a><span 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datetime="2017-11-30T06:39:43.000Z" title="发表于 2017-11-30 14:39:43">2017-11-30</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%88%E4%B9%8B%E4%BC%97.html" title="乌合之众"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241229201706.png" alt="乌合之众" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%88%E4%B9%8B%E4%BC%97.html" title="乌合之众">乌合之众</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">162</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time 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datetime="2017-11-30T06:39:43.000Z" title="发表于 2017-11-30 14:39:43">2017-11-30</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%88%E4%B9%8B%E4%BC%97.html" title="乌合之众"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241229201706.png" alt="乌合之众" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%88%E4%B9%8B%E4%BC%97.html" title="乌合之众">乌合之众</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">162</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2017-03-27T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2017-03-27 18:00:00">2017-03-27</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2016</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" alt="IT系统安全方案导论" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">163</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8/" 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class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251020135535.png" alt="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量">我们到底知道多少之意念的力量</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">181</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-26T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-26 18:00:00">2014-05-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7IPO%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83.html" title="从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241218164530.png" alt="从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BB%8E%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7IPO%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83.html" title="从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考">从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">182</span><div 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href="https://github.com/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html" title="唯品会的生存之门">唯品会的生存之门</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">183</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>行业</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-23T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-23 18:00:00">2014-05-23</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2009</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%8A%AC%E5%84%92%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89.html" title="犬儒主义"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201111191532.png" alt="犬儒主义" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%8A%AC%E5%84%92%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89.html" title="犬儒主义">犬儒主义</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">184</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2009-11-14T17:22:00.000Z" title="发表于 2009-11-15 01:22:00">2009-11-15</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item 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href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-01-09T06:50:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-01-09 14:50:00">2025-01-09</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD.html" title="平均预期寿命理解"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250105090227.png" alt="平均预期寿命理解" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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index 9694652913..fb74711e10 100644
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@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
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index 6d53e16c0c..7c7f664b9e 100644
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@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
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   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
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diff --git "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/2/index.html" "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/2/index.html"
index 3e40a573d7..b9cc3730af 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/2/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/2/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/3/index.html" "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/3/index.html"
index f11de8fca2..ea7f78a3c3 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/3/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/3/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/4/index.html" "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/4/index.html"
index 5acb10f692..5ed67e83a5 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/4/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/4/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/5/index.html" "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/5/index.html"
index 1c6abe5e06..552f9155e1 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/5/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/5/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/6/index.html" "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/6/index.html"
index 1d68247115..ac60709a31 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/6/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/6/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/7/index.html" "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/7/index.html"
index 61c9534457..1a184513d5 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/7/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\257\273\344\271\246\347\254\224\350\256\260/page/7/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:39',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
 }</script><noscript><style type="text/css">
   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/index.html" "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/index.html"
index e641db667b..4b86e60551 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:40',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/2/index.html" "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/2/index.html"
index a2e98deece..07d12c8753 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/2/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/2/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:40',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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diff --git "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/3/index.html" "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/3/index.html"
index 0e787a3b27..be75754efb 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/3/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/3/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:40',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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   #nav {
diff --git "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/4/index.html" "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/4/index.html"
index 7766211ad5..e1a4630f94 100644
--- "a/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/4/index.html"
+++ "b/categories/\350\277\207\345\210\206\345\245\275\345\245\207/page/4/index.html"
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: false,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:40',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
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   #nav {
diff --git a/copyright/index.html b/copyright/index.html
index 584acf9cbb..46854a3b9c 100644
--- a/copyright/index.html
+++ b/copyright/index.html
@@ -235,8 +235,8 @@ <h2 id="例外情况">例外情况</h2>
 <p>关于主题样式的版权信息，可以详见 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.anheyu.com/update/">主题原作者说明</a></p>
 <h2 id="网站源代码协议">网站源代码协议</h2>
 <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://github.com/anzhiyu-c/hexo-theme-anzhiyu">网站主题</a>源代码（仅包含 css、js）的代码部分采用 GPL-3.0 协议。</p>
-</div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0%E9%80%82%E4%BA%8E%E6%9C%AC%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哪些文章适于本协议？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E5%81%9A%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">你可以做什么？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%A0%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E9%81%B5%E5%AE%88%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">你需要遵守什么样的许可？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%B2%E5%90%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">署名</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%81%E6%AD%A2%E5%95%86%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">禁止商用</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%81%E6%AD%A2%E6%BC%94%E7%BB%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">禁止演绎</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E4%BC%9A%E8%A2%AB%E7%89%88%E6%9D%83%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么内容会被版权保护</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%8B%E5%A4%96%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">例外情况</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%AB%99%E6%BA%90%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">网站源代码协议</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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+    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736.6k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T14:31:09.707Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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@@ -306,8 +306,8 @@
 \lvert| \rvert
 $\lv ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E6%99%92%E7%A5%9E%E5%85%BD=%E6%99%92%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E6%99%92%E7%A5%9E%E5%85%BD=%E6%99%92%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html" title="晒神兽=晒自己" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250918182147.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="晒神兽=晒自己" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">社科内省</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E6%99%92%E7%A5%9E%E5%85%BD=%E6%99%92%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html" title="晒神兽=晒自己">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%99%92%E7%A5%9E%E5%85%BD=%E6%99%92%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html" title="晒神兽=晒自己">晒神兽=晒自己</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-09-18T10:30:06.000Z" title="发表于 2025-09-18 18:30:06">2025-09-18</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2025-10-09T08:35:04.000Z" title="更新于 2025-10-09 16:35:04">2025-10-09</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%B2%E5%AD%90/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>亲子</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 四年级分水岭
-孩子小的时候都大差不差，都可爱肉嘟嘟的，睡觉吃饭拉屎玩闹，第一次说话，第一次写字，第一次去上幼儿园哭的鼻子冒泡。这时孩子展现出来的是幼儿最自然，最没社会性的一面，是本能驱动的各种行为和 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/2/#content-inner">2</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/19/#content-inner">19</a><a class="extend next" rel="next" href="https://github.com/page/2/#content-inner"><div class="pagination_tips_next">下页</div><i style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;" class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-right fa-fw"></i></a><div class="toPageGroup"><input id="toPageText" oninput="value=value.replace(/[^0-9]/g,'')" maxlength="3" onkeyup="this.value=this.value.replace(/[^u4e00-u9fa5w]/g,'')" aria-label="toPage"><a id="toPageButton" onclick="anzhiyu.toPage()"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angles-right" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 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 业务模式不是孤立存在的，企业要想基业长青，不仅要有好的业务模式 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210813165310.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="女性婚恋相亲窘境" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">社科内省</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境">女性婚恋相亲窘境</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-08-13T09:08:00.000Z" title="发表于 2021-08-13 17:08:00">2021-08-13</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2025-10-31T02:31:11.000Z" title="更新于 2025-10-31 10:31:11">2025-10-31</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>社交</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
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 现实世界满足不了的幻想，相亲平台来满足你。现实中找不到理想的另一半，相亲平台都有。实际上稍微有点吸引力的人，身边的追求者都应付不过来，哪有时间精力来相亲平台登记呢？
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@@ -309,8 +309,8 @@
 
 65岁以上定义为老年人口
 
-劳动年龄[15-64岁]人口相较于10年下降6%，占比68.6%（前值74.5%）,合计9.7亿人，相较于10年少了 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/page/10/#content-inner"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i><div class="pagination_tips_prev">上页</div></a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/">1</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/10/#content-inner">10</a><span class="page-number current">11</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/12/#content-inner">12</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/19/#content-inner">19</a><a class="extend next" rel="next" href="https://github.com/page/12/#content-inner"><div class="pagination_tips_next">下页</div><i style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;" class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-right fa-fw"></i></a><div class="toPageGroup"><input id="toPageText" oninput="value=value.replace(/[^0-9]/g,'')" maxlength="3" onkeyup="this.value=this.value.replace(/[^u4e00-u9fa5w]/g,'')" aria-label="toPage"><a id="toPageButton" onclick="anzhiyu.toPage()"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angles-right" style="font-weight: inherit; 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 总体印象
 好忙好忙，现在的人比以前的人忙。可是明明现在不管工作还是娱乐，效率都是越来越高，你咋觉得时间越来越紧？
 点解
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 没有人为的持续努力，所有的心灵奇迹都不会发生。认识自己本就是一件需要勇气和毅力的工作。
 不仅要承担面对自己性格黑暗面时的难堪，同时还要想办法放下既有的性格惯性，发展出新的态度与行为模式。通过学习，你 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/16%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/16%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html" title="16型人格的自我修炼" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210814212638.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="16型人格的自我修炼" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">读书笔记</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/16%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html" title="16型人格的自我修炼">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/16%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html" title="16型人格的自我修炼">16型人格的自我修炼</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2015-06-08T07:19:00.000Z" title="发表于 2015-06-08 15:19:00">2015-06-08</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2023-04-23T06:26:00.000Z" title="更新于 2023-04-23 14:26:00">2023-04-23</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
-近日读了一本关于性格（MBTI）的书，不知道是书的原因，直觉的原因，还是耐性不足（字多）的原因，个人对于九型人格更为看好一点。个人看法九型人格讨论的更为深邃，但9分类做的不易区分，因为对立象限不那么 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/page/16/#content-inner"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i><div class="pagination_tips_prev">上页</div></a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/">1</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/16/#content-inner">16</a><span class="page-number current">17</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/18/#content-inner">18</a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/19/#content-inner">19</a><a class="extend next" rel="next" href="https://github.com/page/18/#content-inner"><div class="pagination_tips_next">下页</div><i style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;" class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-right fa-fw"></i></a><div class="toPageGroup"><input id="toPageText" oninput="value=value.replace(/[^0-9]/g,'')" maxlength="3" onkeyup="this.value=this.value.replace(/[^u4e00-u9fa5w]/g,'')" aria-label="toPage"><a id="toPageButton" onclick="anzhiyu.toPage()"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angles-right" style="font-weight: inherit; 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+近日读了一本关于性格（MBTI）的书，不知道是书的原因，直觉的原因，还是耐性不足（字多）的原因，个人对于九型人格更为看好一点。个人看法九型人格讨论的更为深邃，但9分类做的不易区分，因为对立象限不那么 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/page/16/#content-inner"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i><div class="pagination_tips_prev">上页</div></a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/">1</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/16/#content-inner">16</a><span class="page-number current">17</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/18/#content-inner">18</a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/19/#content-inner">19</a><a class="extend next" rel="next" href="https://github.com/page/18/#content-inner"><div class="pagination_tips_next">下页</div><i style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;" class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-right fa-fw"></i></a><div class="toPageGroup"><input id="toPageText" oninput="value=value.replace(/[^0-9]/g,'')" maxlength="3" onkeyup="this.value=this.value.replace(/[^u4e00-u9fa5w]/g,'')" aria-label="toPage"><a id="toPageButton" onclick="anzhiyu.toPage()"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angles-right" style="font-weight: inherit; 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 也许你最开始会面对转型处理不好 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html" title="最高级的想象力是不自由的" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241218193951.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="最高级的想象力是不自由的" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">生活随笔</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html" title="最高级的想象力是不自由的">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html" title="最高级的想象力是不自由的">最高级的想象力是不自由的</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-30T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-30 15:32:00">2014-05-30</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2024-12-18T12:50:29.000Z" title="更新于 2024-12-18 20:50:29">2024-12-18</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 现代认知科学对人类想象力的研究成果：想象力来源于知识。正是理解了事物之间的因果关系知识后，儿童的想象力才成为可能。
 人能想象自己在天上飞，是因为看到鸟在天上飞。我们比较30年前的科幻电影和现在的，同 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/DB%E9%94%81.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251021190058.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="DB锁" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">信息技术</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/DB%E9%94%81.html" title="DB锁">DB锁</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-27T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-27 15:32:00">2014-05-27</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2025-10-22T06:29:48.000Z" title="更新于 2025-10-22 14:29:48">2025-10-22</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
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 当时这篇文章最早出 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201112190431.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="软件哲学" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">信息技术</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学">软件哲学</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2007-04-22T13:31:21.000Z" title="发表于 2007-04-22 21:31:21">2007-04-22</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2024-06-18T02:28:43.000Z" title="更新于 2024-06-18 10:28:43">2024-06-18</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT哲学</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 希伯来最著名的故事或许是
 
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+一位异教徒来到Rabbi Shammal【夏马尔】面前和他说：“要我改变信仰只有一个条件：那就是你在我单脚站立时教完Torah【'tɔ:rɑ:，希伯来文：תורה，意思是 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/page/18/#content-inner"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i><div class="pagination_tips_prev">上页</div></a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/">1</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/18/#content-inner">18</a><span class="page-number current">19</span><div class="toPageGroup"><input id="toPageText" oninput="value=value.replace(/[^0-9]/g,'')" maxlength="3" onkeyup="this.value=this.value.replace(/[^u4e00-u9fa5w]/g,'')" aria-label="toPage"><a id="toPageButton" onclick="anzhiyu.toPage()"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angles-right" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i></a></div></div></nav></div><div 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 经济学都是政治经济学，都有阶级立场。经济学人物多如牛毛，但代表人物就这么几个人，除了马克思，都是站在资产阶级的角度来说话的。
 政治经济学的底层是人口经济学，人口结构，没有负债人 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html" title="祛魅" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250108185809.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="祛魅" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">社科内省</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html" title="祛魅">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html" title="祛魅">祛魅</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-01-09T06:50:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-01-09 14:50:00">2025-01-09</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2025-04-24T13:13:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-04-24 21:13:53">2025-04-24</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
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 一种解决问题的思维方式，需要考虑的更加全面。相较于产品思维，更锚定于长链条服务，少一些打造的味道（成瘾性产品的打造甚至贯穿有针对人性不完美的利用挖掘）。换句话说，业务思维就是我要解决问题 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3.html" title="书同文字体理解" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240822111446.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="书同文字体理解" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">过分好奇</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3.html" title="书同文字体理解">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3.html" title="书同文字体理解">书同文字体理解</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2024-08-22T03:18:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-08-22 11:18:00">2024-08-22</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2024-08-22T03:18:19.000Z" title="更新于 2024-08-22 11:18:19">2024-08-22</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>文字</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 刀与笔
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 很多人觉得登台之后自然就开始演讲了，非也，第一件事是停住，得让大家看到你全身。大家在演讲时都会做手势，右力手就站左边，反之站右边，这样就有一个很大的打手势空间。
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+娱乐圈常有大美人、小美人之分，似乎有一个隐含要求是，大美人不仅要脸好看，身材也要足以「够震慑」，热巴的身材为她的整体形象加分良多。小美人即使脸很过关，也常因为身板和头身比被认为够不上大美人。文章更多 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/page/3/#content-inner"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i><div class="pagination_tips_prev">上页</div></a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/">1</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/3/#content-inner">3</a><span class="page-number current">4</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/5/#content-inner">5</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/19/#content-inner">19</a><a class="extend next" rel="next" href="https://github.com/page/5/#content-inner"><div class="pagination_tips_next">下页</div><i style="font-weight: inherit; 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 2023年开源软件的下载使用达到了4万亿次，以空前的力量推动软件生态的发展与创新。这里面下载最突出的领域语言是JavaScript，能占到1.5万亿
 开宗明义
 开源软件
-既继承了“自由”软件所提倡的 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">读书笔记</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-12-11T08:38:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-12-11 16:38:00">2023-12-11</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2025-10-22T11:07:24.000Z" title="更新于 2025-10-22 19:07:24">2025-10-22</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
+既继承了“自由”软件所提倡的 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">读书笔记</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-12-11T08:38:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-12-11 16:38:00">2023-12-11</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 学历史不是记时间，那叫记事本存储器，得有纵向跨时空的穿插和逻辑。
 先秦的棋谱
 人文家国，历久弥新。从周代的历史缩影都能窥见后代棋局的棋谱大意。
@@ -303,8 +303,8 @@
 
 落笔写这篇文章，首先是前天增补OpenAI公司核心价值观的变动议论，昨天三两粉晚餐时间又碰到一位好利来烘焙小姐姐来深圳出差考察市场，同桌论及同行对比时，快速提到她们超然的企业文化–传递爱，brai ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230809113620.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="云原生基座下的大数据" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">信息技术</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据">云原生基座下的大数据</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-08-22T09:30:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-08-22 17:30:00">2023-08-22</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2024-06-27T09:59:01.000Z" title="更新于 2024-06-27 17:59:01">2024-06-27</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>云原生</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>大数据</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>存储</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 存算耦合架构回顾
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+最早的 Shared-Disk 架构主要是通过独立定制网络 NAS 于存储架构来实现第一代的存算分离架构，性能好但成本较高（采用网状通道技术交换机连接存储阵列和服务器主机，建立专用 ...</div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/page/4/#content-inner"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;"></i><div class="pagination_tips_prev">上页</div></a><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/">1</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/4/#content-inner">4</a><span class="page-number current">5</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/6/#content-inner">6</a><span class="space">&hellip;</span><a class="page-number" href="https://github.com/page/19/#content-inner">19</a><a class="extend next" rel="next" href="https://github.com/page/6/#content-inner"><div class="pagination_tips_next">下页</div><i style="font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem;" class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-right fa-fw"></i></a><div class="toPageGroup"><input id="toPageText" oninput="value=value.replace(/[^0-9]/g,'')" maxlength="3" onkeyup="this.value=this.value.replace(/[^u4e00-u9fa5w]/g,'')" aria-label="toPage"><a id="toPageButton" onclick="anzhiyu.toPage()"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angles-right" style="font-weight: inherit; 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+    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736.6k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T14:31:09.707Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
   getScript('https://sdk.jinrishici.com/v2/browser/jinrishici.js').then(() => {
     jinrishici.load(result =>{
       if (false) {
diff --git a/page/6/index.html b/page/6/index.html
index 07d563cea1..318a458ca4 100644
--- a/page/6/index.html
+++ b/page/6/index.html
@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@
   isHome: true,
   isHighlightShrink: false,
   isToc: false,
-  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 08:17:40',
+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:11',
   postMainColor: '',
 }</script><noscript><style type="text/css">
   #nav {
@@ -294,8 +294,8 @@
 
 软件逆推，还原成一段段代码，找到其中的关键代码，篡改，破解，发现漏洞
 最好的例子就是盗版软件。开发者们累死累活写好的程序，分分钟被人逆向破解，植入广告和木马，重新打包成盗版
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 开宗名义
 发展自己的专长，的确存在漫长的爬坡期
 
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 新代理头两个月，可通过自保和近保完成考核目标，然后后续的业务开展仍然很艰难，无论是短期获取陌生客户的信任，还是熟练掌握销售的心理和技巧，都非一日之功。
 怪圈：增员即 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item" onclick="pjax.loadUrl('/%E5%88%AB2021-%E8%BF%8E2022.html')"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="https://github.com/%E5%88%AB2021-%E8%BF%8E2022.html" title="别2021，迎2022" style="display: flex;height: 100%;"><img class="post_bg" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/F50F5E7B-06E9-4DF9-AB4C-1EA8AF8522E3_1_105_c.jpeg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="别2021，迎2022" style="pointer-events: none"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><div class="recent-post-info-top"><div class="recent-post-info-top-tips"><div class="article-categories-original">生活随笔</div><a class="unvisited-post" href="https://github.com/%E5%88%AB2021-%E8%BF%8E2022.html" title="别2021，迎2022">未读</a></div><a class="article-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%88%AB2021-%E8%BF%8E2022.html" title="别2021，迎2022">别2021，迎2022</a></div><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt" style="display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-01-04T11:10:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-01-04 19:10:00">2022-01-04</time><span class="article-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history" style="font-size: 15px; display:none"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" datetime="2024-06-29T09:01:56.000Z" title="更新于 2024-06-29 17:01:56">2024-06-29</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>心理</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3/" tabindex="-1"><span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>时代</span></a></span></div><div class="content">
 环境变革与内省调整
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diff --git a/search.json b/search.json
index f193bfed18..41fdd1ae0e 100644
--- a/search.json
+++ b/search.json
@@ -1 +1 @@
-[{"title":"16型人格的自我修炼","url":"/16%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html","content":"\n近日读了一本关于性格（MBTI）的书，不知道是书的原因，直觉的原因，还是耐性不足（字多）的原因，个人对于九型人格更为看好一点。个人看法九型人格讨论的更为深邃，但9分类做的不易区分，因为对立象限不那么直接。迎合了自己MBTI里直觉型的特点。从职场上来说，MBTI更为流行，实用度也更好，总结为4个维度比9个维度，是要更简单实用些。所以它有它的可取之处。书的名字是 《16型人格的自我修炼》\n渊源\nMBTI，脱自于荣格的理论，荣格是弗洛伊德的学生，但脱离于弗洛伊德发展出自己的流派（弗洛伊德的体系总结于精神病治疗，推广于各个正常场景确实过于偏执，但无法否认开创了一篇天地）\n在荣格的理论中，认为人们有着不同的“原型”本能，这些不同的本能从自身内部驾驭着每一个不同的人，没有哪一个是更重要的，重要的是我们的自然倾向—内在或外在。这两种倾向和他提出的“四个基本心理学功能”—“思想、体验、感觉、直觉”相联系，形成了人的“功能类型”。荣格认为，我们可以把人根据他们的倾向性来进行分类，因为不同的倾向正是不同性格最深层最自然特质的外在表现，这些倾向体现了“你是怎么样的一个人”。\nMBTI最初就用于职场分析。二战期间，男人被送上战场，工厂车间的位置不得不由女人来顶替，MBTI的发明者是一对母女，就希望找到一个性格类型的测试方法，让从未进入工厂的女人们能从事和自己性格相匹配的工作，从而感到舒适而高效。\n简解\n\n内向（Introversion）/外向(Extraversion)，这个最简单，判断人多还是独处时精力最旺盛。\n感觉(Sensing) / 直觉(iNtuition)， 感觉的人关注身边真实存在的细节，看得到摸得着，描述也喜例子。直觉的人更喜欢形而上，类比，喜欢抽象的问题。\n思考(Thinking) / 情感（Feeling）， 原则第一还是周围人的感受第一，这要看不得不做选择时。\n判断（Judging）/感知（Perceiving）， 判断型的人有计划条理，感知型的人更喜散漫自由\n\n\n书评\n书籍的作者不仅仅是MBTI的分析师，更强调了习惯的作用，推崇1w小时理论。对16种性格组合给出了每一类的建议。可惜文字太多，自己没有勇气细细看完。我想这已经够了，读书很多时候花全书20%的时间已经有很大裨益，掌握80%最核心的内容，毕竟大家的时间都非常有限。\nINTP型，书中特别举了SMART原则，精读与泛读，习惯坚持的例子，用以指点，也是警醒。\n每种类型，作者都旁征博引了她看过的很多其他书中的观点，哪怕是鸡汤类的。起码说明作者真的看了不少书。不过从另一个侧面也显得讲的不能深入浅出，阶段和大多数出书者一样还是小学问。\n各种性格第一印象\n附16种性格类型人的第一印象\n\nINTP 思考者—聪慧深入地分析问题\nENTP 预言家—把点子变成众人的愿景\nENTJ 执行官—一切尽在掌握之中\nINTJ 专家—追求卓越与独特\nENFJ 赠与者—将每一个人的潜力发挥到极致\nINFJ 指导者—将光亮带入他人的黑暗\nENFP 启发者—天下没有不可能的事\nINFP 哲学家—生活在自己的理想世界里\nESTP 实干家—充满干劲解决周遭问题\nISTP 手工者—冷静观察却迅速行动\nESFP 表演者— 生活就是一个巨大的舞台\nISFP 艺术家—展示有形作品以丰富内心世界\nESTJ 管家—让当下的事情有条不紊地进行\nISTJ 检察员—细致谨慎地执行好现有规则\nESFJ 照顾者—热情主动地帮助他人操持一切\nISFJ 护卫者—细致周到呵护他人\n\nINTP\n自己做了一次测试，INTP， 学者型 – 聪颖机智的解决问题。\n潜在的弱点：\n\n\n喜欢给自己和他人过高的标准和期望\n\n\n过分强调工作，损害家庭的和谐\n\n\n不记得花时间夸奖同事下属或其他人\n\n\n过于理论化不考虑实际情况，受远景规划诱惑，难以具体落实\n\n\n想法太多，不知道哪些切实可行\n\n\n有时没注意到他人的情绪感受，给人冷漠，不近人情的印象\n\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理","url":"/95%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84Jobs%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88.html","content":"\n第一次发表于2014.05.18\n\n\n关于Jobs的述说已经够多，网上的一篇电视采访（那会儿Jobs还在运作着他的NeXT公司，未回归苹果），因为时长够长，且Jobs在那耐心并心情大好的侃侃而谈，很值得观看，起码有其亲口述说的早年历史。\n当然这就像没看过MJ打篮球的人，通过那些久远的录像来体味那辉煌时光一样的感觉，毕竟后期的苹果是如此的成功，Jobs作为出类拔萃的CEO，不少果粉只是赶上个末尾或连尾都没追上。\n我想这样的类比是恰当的。\n\n创新的困境\n施乐公司为何不能把图形界面系统项目推广开来？看Jobs如何说。\n他首先是揶揄了一下挤走他的前百事CEO。百事公司可能10年没什么更新，所以产品部门的人说话没什么分量。\n反而营销部门的人，很容易升职从而掌管公司。对于百事来说，这可能不是什么坏事。但是对于垄断科技公司也有这种情况，例如IBM和施乐。即便IBM和Xerox的人能做出更棒的产品，但那又怎样。那些已垄断市场的公司很难再提高业绩，想提高业绩还要靠营销部门。营销部门的人逐渐掌握公司后，产品部门的人被边缘化，公司就丧失了打造优秀的产品的热情和能力。\n而掌权的人一方面缺乏打造优秀产品的技术和能力，而且也非打心底愿意帮客户解决问题。这也是Xerox发生的事情。管理层可能根本不知道计算机是什么，而不过是碰巧赶上了计算机产业的顺风车。导致本来有机会把规模扩大10倍独占整个行业，却失之交臂。\n对于不能感知理解趋势的同事，Jobs的看法是他们在犯糊涂，而不是行业分工的差异。同样放大到公司层面时，解释就变成公司在犯糊涂。公司扩大规模后，就会变得因为遁守旧，他们认为只要遵循流程，就能奇迹般地继续成功，于是开始推行严格的流程制度。很快员工就把遵守流程和纪律当做工作本身。公司也就是这样一步步走下坡路的。当然各个大公司里，都有很懂管理流程的人，但从Jobs的经验来看，优秀的人才是那些一心想着产品的人，虽然这些人很难管理，但光靠流程和制度做不出好产品。\n如何持续创新与天才团队的管理\n聊及组建的Macintosh团队时，主持人发问如何鞭策引导，如何处理事情的轻重缓急，还有什么东西在开发一款产品过程中最被他看中。Jobs出我意外的凝思了好一会儿，又一次以挤走他的百事前CEO来举例子。虽然主持人连珠炮的问了几个问题，但Jobs只注意到了最后一个问题。\n\n吐槽盲目乐观，即认为光凭创意就能取得成功\n\n认为只要想到绝妙的主意，公司就一定可以实现。问题在于**优秀的创意和产品之间隔着巨大的鸿沟。实现创意的过程中，想法会变化甚至变得面目全非。因为你会发现新东西，思考的更深入。去权衡利弊，做出让步和调整**。总有些问题是电子设备解决不了的，是塑料玻璃材料无法实现的。或者是工厂或机器人做不到的。\n设计一款产品，需要把5000个问题装进脑子，梳理尝试各种组合，以获得想要的结果。这个过程很重要，才是真正的魔法所在，而无论你开始时有多少绝妙的主意。优秀人才的辩论，争吵，对抗，合作，相互打磨，磨砺彼此的想法，才输出精美的结果。\n生活中的多数东西，最好的和普通的，差距不超过两倍。但在软硬件行业，这个差距可能在50或100倍（包括人的能耐）。你只要找到5个A player，他们马上会喜欢上彼此合作的感觉，他们会不愿再与平庸者合作。所以你要做的就是找到几个精英，他们就会自己扩大团队。与优秀自信的人合作，不用太在乎他们的自尊。\n你要做的是提醒这些优秀的人回到对应的工作状态和成果，且不能让对方怀疑你的权威性，这其实很难，其实没有多少回旋的操作空间。所以Jobs总是采取最直接了当的方式。\n\n一定不能用质疑他们能力的方式去说，但也不能给太多空间解释为什么东西不够好（从虎嗅哥们的文章中提取）\n\n首先他是只管成功，不关心是非的人，如果你也是这样，那就尽管学他吧。当然他也拉得下脸，只要你能拿出足够说服力的证据，敢直接批评别人的人同样不怕犯错。\n\n你（管理者）需要关心的是：we do the right thing。\n\n在乔布斯的团队中，也有人咒骂他，他的解释，是每个人对高度紧张产出过程的持续容忍度不同，但就算是走的人，可能也不会否认当初的过程是其人生非常高效和难忘/难以替代的一段。\n除去人的基本面判断，激情和创新能力，还有一点应对压力的能力也是打造顶尖团队值得借鉴的。（此行摘自鹅长一位同事对Jobs的看法）\n\n小插曲：一个很有意思的事情是，adobe本来想成为一个硬件公司，生产打印机，但Jobs看过他们的东西看，劝他们成为一家软件公司，且砍掉了做得不如他们的apple桌面出版项目，转而控股20%的adobe的股权。\n而在在几年前，Jobs又大大吐槽adobe的flash技术太烂太烂，费电且漏洞多，真的是有意思。\n\n如何判断你画出的方向是对的（大背景下做对的事情）？\n沉思第二久的回答：最终由人的品位决定。你要熟悉人类在各种领域的优秀成果，尝试把它运用到你的工作里。 Jobs不觉得借鉴别人的创意可耻，这样你才不会做出狭隘的产品。\n追求极致，分享给同类，人类正是这样共同进步。这是苹果的魅力，成功的动力。\n虎嗅的哥们总结提炼的更有心，部分转述有其加工理解，且对我的文字互补查缺，值得一看。传送门\nDo something when you young\n\n另一份采访，有地方翻译为《戳破生活的真相》，不是表达原文，做了顺序调整和缩写\n\n在你长大后，往往被告知世界就是这样子，生活在这个世界上，你要避免出格碰壁，努力拥有一个幸福的家庭，过得开心，攒一些钱。但那是一种非常局限的生活，人生原本可以更加宽广。你周围你称之为生活的一切，都是由并不比你聪明的人创造的。明白这个简单的事实，其实你能改变它，影响它，你能建立自己的规则，东西让别人去使用。\n你不只是个过客，相反，你要拥抱，改变，完善它，并在上面留下自己的印记，不做生活的傀儡。戳穿生活这层膜，按下去，对面就会有东西按出来。知道了还要付诸行动，世界是由只会做梦的人和敢于行动的人分别组成。\n生命当中唯一拥有的是时间，把时间用来投资自己，用来获取经验，莫要等待。Do something when you young，20岁的年轻人就应该去闯（不是说50岁就不可以开一家公司，但当你年轻时，没有什么可以失去，不需要对更多人负责，做事会相对简单很多），没有什么会失去，得到的经验会是比失去多十倍的东西。\n\n作为创新的先驱，Jobs也不是完美的人，工作、亲情和生活处理的并不平衡。选择过一个什么样的人生，跟价值观有关系，价值观为主观标准，并无绝对的对错。\n但努力的拥抱生活，改造世界，是我们应该有的人生态度。We are here to be creators！有梦想趁年轻勇敢去追！\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队","访谈"]},{"title":"Apps城市级别用户画像","url":"/Apps%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%BA%A7%E5%88%AB%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html","content":"\n第一次发表于2014.05.18\n\n\n从Apps的使用来分析我们的互联网用户，各线城市有明显的偏好特征，和大家的印象模模糊糊的呼应，特别的有意思，也反映出不同的生存状态。\n城市级特征：\n\n一线城市忙交际，流连歌厅夜店，这也是O2O市场化的体现，说明一线走在前端，生活疯狂忙碌，但也是众人在压力下的舞蹈，为生计，为释放;\n二线城市看美女，但凡有美女存在的社交应用都很吃香；\n三线美女笑嘻嘻，逛街找笑点乐活人生，从这点上来看，三线和四线本质区别并不是很大；\n四线城市玩游戏，信奉游戏人生的生活态度。四线最广大的基层生产创新能量并未释放出来，但这进一步又是游戏业这么几年蓬勃的基石啊，怪不得游戏这么好赚。\n\n差异解读\n\n1- 4级城市时间的自我支配力度越来越强。\n3 与 4或许在PC端的区别并不大，但是无线终端还是互联网的高层级抽象，代表着一种非底端的趋势，所以才表现出这样的差异性。\n最不好理解的是 2 线城市，或许说明二线城市忙活之余，是一种更迷茫的群体，俗语说，高不成低不就？\n\n类型&amp;年龄特征\n\n游戏类\n\n00后爱角色扮演，90后爱策略塔防，70后中年大叔爱斗地主，80后工作压力大，爱暴打老板。\n\n社交类\n\n各年龄段男人都爱美女直播间，除去90后当值求偶期，更爱“恋爱”app.\n\n娱乐类:\n\n女人可不同了，娱乐类00后对明星毫无抵抗力，是追星主流。同样是看搞笑图片，70后纯为逗乐，90后女汉子更爱“内涵”图，80,60都向神婆靠近，前者爱星运，后者爱姓名。\n\n工具类\n\n90后爱弄头发，80后爱用qq提醒（工作好苦逼哦，也或许是生活琐事要记的多），70后爱测试“上辈子是夫妻“，60后钟情免费算命。都是宿命论的调调，只是不同的年龄层，有些着眼将来，有些活在当下，有些回味过去。\n\n交叉分析\n\n00后不管男女，都对游戏着迷。\n90后小伙在爱情路上奔忙时，姑娘们却已经在晒恩爱（qq情侣），\n80后女人看育儿经，但其男人们都在看美女。\n70后男女都会生活，一个限时养鱼，一个淘物美价廉物品。\n60后知天命，有些还在买卖东西，阿姨们可都在享福以种树养花为趣\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"DB锁","url":"/DB%E9%94%81.html","content":"\n自己其实也算对db的机制有不少时间投入，从刚工作参与的项目，充斥各种复杂sql，随之要求大家对sql语句的简洁与性能持续关注。新的互联网单位，又变换成充斥各种No-sql，缓存是一等公民，曾经的思索都忘的七七八八了。唯一碰到的深度讨论只是为什么innodb的数据文件不能缩小的问题，总结点什么吧。\nInnodb的卖身故事\n用mysql的人恐怕都知道innodb数据引擎，innodb的初始母Innobase公司成立于95年的芬兰，目标是开发一个事务引擎，且初始并不是开源的，但创始人死活找不到人买这个产品，才促成了2000年与mysql的合作，并促成了2001mysql第一次发布支持innodb引擎的版本。\n虽然mysql多次尝试与innodb 公司想达成收购交易，但还是oracle资金雄厚，笑到最后，好在oracle并未对innodb做什么不好的事情。oracle用的并不是innodb，虽然他们的思路相同（用日志系统来支持事务和并发）。innodb引擎和oracle数据库引擎对于事务的隔离级别支持并不同。\nOracle的隔离级别\noracle只支持“读已提交”和“串行化”（不在标准之列的只读模式咱就不提了），且它的串行化的实现，也不是真正的串行化，而是类似于基于日志系统的可重复读。\n对于应用来说，其看到的实际效果又跟理论上定义的串行化一致，因为看不到幻读的出现。oracle这种要性能不要对上隔离（屏蔽同步复杂性）的做法，我个人觉得还是很不好的，这种假串行太高估应用层开发人员的思维能力了，他们经常已经被业务搞死了，还要应付一遍这些繁琐的更新竞争问题。\noracle的串行化，当两个事务同时更新一条数据时，如a先获得锁，b更新等待。a提交后，b将抛出一个不可串行化错误。这种错误没有客户能理解，最好的办法还是通过业务锁（令牌）机制来处理。看这篇文章[2]\n关于oracle的隔离级别细节，说实在的我没有过一手项目经验，更多细节还可参见[3]，虽然我觉得其从设计动机的角度解释说明的亦不全靠谱\nInnodb的隔离级别\nInnodb作为开源的引擎，试图尽量与标准保持一致。但是其可重复读级别，在一定程度上也避免了幻读（通过间隙锁，你的读语句是范围查询，gap lock才有意义），但显然并不是真正的串行化（串行化要求读写可串行化），其可重复读隔离级别最好的解释看这里[1]。\nInnodb 的锁的详细解读，可参看这里[4]\n后记\n14 年当时想讲清的东西就很多，故此文一直未完工，但转去写了一个PPT，于2015年07月完工PPT，把想讲的内容都涵盖了。PPT上传过百度文库，也许有人看过。\n参考\n1.博客园 MySQL使用可重复读作为默认隔离级别的原因  ↩2.博客园 Oracle 数据库隔离级别，特性，问题和解决方法 ↩3.ITEYE 深究Oracle的隔离级别 ↩4.51CTO InnoDB行锁和表锁的分析 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"DevSecOps","url":"/DevSecOps.html","content":"\n云原生下的应用安全风险，不论是传统应用，还是拆分模块化后的应用，人为因素都是影响应用安全的重要一环，特别是当传统应用拆分为微服务后，可能导致各个模块被交给不同的开发组进行开发的情况，每个模块功能开发者的安全编码规范，安全意识并不统一。从安全团队的角度来讲，需要统一规范各个模块的安全编程质量。\n云原生下企业应用安全现状\n\n安全人员配比：相对于开发人员，安全人员数量配比比较低，随着云原生应用的推进，安全人员的压力越发明显\n应用开发质量：企业内部和外包人员缺乏一定的安全开发意识，外包人员流动大，安全能力培养无法固定，安全开发水平参差不齐\n应用合规化：《网络安全法》《个人信息保护法》《关键信息基础设施安全保护条例》《数据安全法》等一系列相关法律法规的出台，对应用安全提出了更高的要求\n有效的安全工具：传统安全工具需要进化，契合云原生下微服务分布式的监测能力\n\n安全风险普遍存在\n97%被测目标存在某种形式的漏洞\n\n28%的测试目标曾受过跨站脚本(XSS)攻击\n76%的被测目标存在OWASP（开放式Web应用程序安全项目) 在2021年所披露的前十大漏洞\n\n应用程序和服务器配置错误占比21%[安全配置错误类别]\n19%的漏洞与[访问控制失效]类别有关\n18%的系统在使用易受攻击的第三方库，这一漏洞属于[易受攻击和过时的组件类别]（有时甚至没有清单来记录这些内容，现在很多企业都在同时使用数百个应用程序或软件系统，并拥有数百甚至数千个不同的第三方组件或开源组件，对企业来说，一份准确且实时更新的软件物料清单来有效追踪外部组件是非常有必要的）\n\n\n\n数据泄露事件分析\n\n78%的数据泄露事件是由网络攻击造成的，攻击者利用漏洞非法入侵，查看或下载系统数据\n14%的事件是由系统不正确配置造成的，在数据传输或处理场景中，由于未对权限进行控制，未加密或未脱敏，导致用户隐私，组织的核心数据被窃取\n8%的事件是由人为错误导致的，如内部人员利用职务便利非法越权查看，下载数据等。此类内部向外部泄露数据的安全事件极难防范，更多是管理，非技术发力杜绝可为。\n\n\n移动应用程序安全风险\n不安全的数据存储和通信漏洞\n\n在移动设备安全测试中，有80%的漏洞与不安全的数据存储有关，攻击者既可以物理访问移动设备，也可以使用恶意软件进入设备\n还有53%的漏洞与不安全的通信方式有关\n\n漏洞复盘\n复盘历史漏洞，按成因粗略可归为两类：\n\n代码漏洞，因不安全的API使用和逻辑编写产生的安全风险\n运维漏洞，指运行环境，配置和依赖等系统运维的安全风险，如软件供应链攻击，如公司内员工使用包管理软件拉取时，未配置公司镜像源，可能会拉取到攻击者抢注的恶意包\n\n数据校验是几乎每份安全规范类文档会囊括的要点，可通过数据校验规避的漏洞约占历史web漏洞安全工单数量的70%~80%，但要落实好，最有效的解决办法还是自动生成代码来做此类事情。\nDevSecOps\n解释\n从开发周期起始就引入安全流程，贯穿整个开发周期，对代码进行评审，审计，扫描和测试。尽早确定和实施防御技术，就可以降低安全问题的成本。\n\n安全测试在整个发布和部署过程中持续进行，企业利用自动化工具（如SAST，DAST，IAST，SCA）及手工测试活动（如代码审查和渗透测试），综合达成安全加固的目标\n\n将安全原则集成到开发和操作过程中的实践，创造简化安全性的新机会，换一种简单的概念，叫做安全左移。\n措施策略\n\n尽可能使用日志记录和监视工具，并建立实施事件响应流程，以便快速响应安全警报\n部署自动化测试（如DAST），纵深防御解决方案（如RASP）及传统的的WAF技术以保护生产中的应用程序\n\n立体问题，立体解决\n从立体化上看，包括三个机制：\n\n\n面向开发人员的代码安全指南+静态代码安全检查\n\n常见误区：重检查，轻提供解决方案。如果只聚焦于发现问题，但开发人员在解决问题时，如没有可操作的解决方案，修复工作往往难以推动\n\n\n\n默认安全框架组件\n\n\n嵌入基础设施的代码安全检查。\n\n\n来自谷歌的实践建议\nGoogle在内部安全左移的实践中，提出\n\n越早越好，软件设计初期就应考量安全，稳定性问题，否则越往后代价越高，过程会很痛苦\n安全意识教育很重要，但也不是银弹，安全工程师甚至都会犯错。在业务开发阶段，关注点往往是功能实现，要兼顾安全和稳定性设计方面的权衡，会很难。因此，应关注安全机制和工具的建设\n安全能力嵌入框架大有裨益，复用最佳实践，提供规范性与一致性，减少由业务各自实现产生的风险（不同业务重复在写安全校验逻辑，浪费人力还易出错），还能提升研效，降低修复成本和时间，框架虽不能保证预防解决所有问题，但出现问题时，只需要在一个点解决\n\n\nSecurity By Design：写出漏洞不一定是开发者的问题，而可能是API设计得容易出错。如SQL注入为例，组件和框架都提供了参数绑定的功能，安全规范也有不断强调，但开发人员仍非常容易写出带SQL注入的代码。可以从API设计机制上禁用查询拼接，仅允许通过占位符替换进入查询语句。\n数据校验各类安全规范都会囊括，但在实际过程中，落地并不理想。通过复盘数据统计，可通过数据校验规避的漏洞占历史web安全漏洞工单数量的70~80%。\n\n组合采用校验和带默认安全机制的功能组件（融入Security By Design）两个方案是最优解。如你用IDL进行接口定义，可以定制规则请求消息体中的String类型字段必须限定格式/字符范围+长度，使得在保存IDL文件时，立即获得提示并修正存在的安全隐患。\n数据校验本身是一项业务需求，降低开发门槛，让框架层提供组件让每个业务模块都能做到数据校验，是应该去实践的方向。\n安全指南的难点\n语言差异\n\n每种语言面临的安全风险不同，如go和js相比，go就不存在原型链污染的风险。\n同一门编程语言，用在不同的终端应用开发，面临的风险类型和数量有着天壤之别。\n\n如JS应用于前端页面开发时，主要风险是DOM XSS\n依托于Node.js进行后端接口开发，编码不当则存在命令注入，SQL注入风险。\n\n场景关联\n风险通常与业务场景高度相关，如\n\nSQL注入，一般发生在SQL查询场景，因为允许拼接SQL查询语句，且未做参数绑定和参数值校验，造成风险敞口\nSSRF漏洞，则发生在资源请求场景，未判断网络资源请求目标是否属于内网\n命令注入，发生在命令执行场景，风险成因和SQL注入类似\n\n代码安全指南，与场景关联，有利于受众人员降低认知学习成本，更容易想起注意事项，且要配套结合在线学习课程和考试，如此更能弱化开发人员不了解如何安全地开发的问题。\n\n枚举的挑战\n\n在代码安全指引中，要枚举API/Sink点。通常安全漏洞可归因为API的错误使用，sink点是编写安全策略组件重要的一部分，直接决定了SAST系统的扫描能力。\n\n以google前端加固组件为例，通过对.innerHTML等容易被误用产生安全问题的API做了加固，封装为前端组件中心的函数对象，并设计了对应的编译时检查工具，使得DOM XSS由原来的20%降低到2%\n这个例子中，最重要的是XSS Sink点的提取，也就是易误用产生安全漏洞的API，故Sink的提取是开展API加固极为重要的一步\n\n\n确保所枚举的API的完善性是一个非常大的挑战，补充完善Sink点的工作长尾且任务量大，需随着内外部发现的漏洞，编程语言和框架的迭代而不断迭代。通过与社区携手一道维护是一条路。\n静态安全扫描\n代码安全指南只是安全左移建设的第一步，还需解决的挑战有：\n\n开发人员有一定安全意识，但因为赶进度或疏忽遗漏安全措施落实，或是错误地实现安全校验逻辑\n代码编写是否安全全凭开发人员自觉，缺乏提示、检查和卡点机制\n\n解决方式是：静态代码安全检查解决\n常规的源码表示方式以AST（抽象语法树）和IR（中间表达）为主。一般而言，IR是从AST经过层层转换而来，所以会比AST拥有更多信息。但相对的，每种语言一般会有自己不同的IR，处理起来会相对比较困难。而AST的形式则简单直观，操作起来也比较容易。\n\n第一种是在AST上做检查，既然源码被表示成了树的形式，我们就可以遍历AST，使用一些pattern去检查代码规范中的问题，如方法调用参数变量的检查。\n第二种就是污点分析，污点分析是更为常用的检查安全漏洞的方法，通过标记外部输入点，基于数据流观察能否达到危险函数（如SQL查询，命令执行函数）来检查安全漏洞。\n\n\n\n\n\n源码、AST、IR\n\n\n\nAST与污点分析的优缺对照\n\n\n\n方法\n优点\n缺点\n\n\n\n\nAST匹配\n开发简单，速度较快\n模式匹配能力有限\n\n\n污点分析\n完整的漏洞触发流分析，能针对特定条目做检查\n维护成本较高，速度相对较慢，会有部分漏报研发往往会采取不同的过滤方式，不同的写法，导致sanitizer不能很好的确定下来。大型项目中，组件往往分布于不同仓库，加之很多自定义的通信框架，完整程序数据流很难得到。\n\n\n\nstd::string cmdLine = &quot;ls&quot;;cmdLine += user_input; //source(输入)if (cmdLine.find_first_not_of(&quot;1234567890.+-*/e &quot;) == std::string::npos) //sanitizer(过滤点)  system(cmdLine.c_str());//sinkelse  warning(&quot;xxxxx&quot;)\n在写代码段不同阶段，开发人员对检查工具和结果的预期要求各不相同\n\n\n本地编写阶段\n要求速度快，此时往往代码还没写完，AST模式匹配就是个很好的检查方式，可考虑用semgrep等工具，封装为IDE插件。实践过程中，可尝试引入一些更激进的策略，如要求更改不安全的SQL查询拼接逻辑\n\n\n构建部署阶段：封装为流水线原子，并配套提供安全卡点机制，给出问题描述和解决指引\n\n\n日常检查阶段，代码仓库检查\n该阶段一般为旁路检查，可进行一系列复杂的分析。速度就不是第一考虑因素了。\n\n\n白盒扫描战斗机CodeQL\n行业产品对比&lt;span class=“hint–top hint–error hint–medium hint–rounded hint–bounce” aria-label=&quot;58集团，白盒代码审计系统技术选型\n&quot;&gt;[3]\n在这个领域，是有成熟的商业善品和开源项目的，Coverity、Fortify、CheckMarx作为领头产品，有深厚的技术积累和专业的产品技术团队。优点就不用说了，缺点是定制化需求支持困难，引擎对用户不透明，需求提交给厂商响应时长为Month++；规则学习成本高，自定义规则困难；厂商以最大并发量授权license，弹性扩容能力差，存在成本浪费；融入企业自身的CI/CD流程困难，难以准确处理误报，漏洞修复复查等业务需求。\n如Converity扫描脚本MacOS的版本适配一般都会delay2~3个月，这就会导致MacOS一更新，对C/C的安全扫描业务就会中断（C/C安全扫描依赖本地编译环境）。另外代码质量问题和安全漏洞并未明显区分，每个项目数千计的代码质量问题和安全漏洞难以修复落地。\n开源产品SonarQube、FindBugs、Checkstyle等更偏向质量检查而非安全性检查，虽利于适配CI软件，但没有跨文件AST能力，无法分析跨文件数据流和控制流。\nCodeQL\n通过适配各个语言的AST解释器，并将代码的AST解析结果按预设好的数据模型将AST数据及其依赖关系存储到CodeDB里，通过QL语言定义污点追踪漏洞模型，执行QL时通过高效搜索算法对CodeGB的AST元数据进行高效查询，在代码中检索出漏洞结果[4]。\n\n\n支持除PHP外的常见语言类型\n规则开源，无需依赖厂商支持；但AST分析引擎不开源，无法免费集成。\n不支持软件成分分析，无法结合软件版本进行漏洞判断\n它做得最棒的是通过不同语言的适配，把一些常用查询封装成QL语言，对AST数据进行一种类SQL的查询。结合AST元数据对DataFlow和ControlFlow进行更细致的判断，减少误报，漏报。\n\n悬赏开源社区完善规则\n通过GitHub庞大的开源代码及迭代数据，实现打标给神经网络学习提供学习样本\n\n\n\n现代应用安全工具\n静态应用安全测试（SAST）\n\n\n也称为静态分析，是第一批发现源代码和字节码或二进制文件本身缺陷的AppSec工具之一。\n\n\n能促成在软件研发生命周期的最初阶段收敛漏洞。\n\n\n动态应用程序安全测试（DAST）\n于运行状态下对应用程序进行爬行和分析。与SAST一样，它只能识别扫描引擎已知的漏洞和配置问题，传统的DAST扫描通常测试公开的HTML接口，更先进的DAST扫描器也可以测试REST API\nSAST（白盒）vs DAST（黑盒）\n\n一图胜十言，SAST和DAST联合起来才能彼此完整\n\n\n软件组合分析（SCA）\n由于开源组件带来的风险增加，SCA工具在过去几年变得越发流行。该工具能识别源代码，容器和注册表中的开源漏洞，大多数SCA工具还能检查开源许可合规性和归属要求。\n交互式应用安全测试（IAST–灰盒）\n\n关键技术：插桩检测模式+流量检测模式+实时web日志\n\n传统黑盒扫描器依赖于页面响应检测漏洞，需要发送大量的请求，还有误报的可能。对于SSRF，文件上传等漏洞，在页面没有回显，主机无外网权限的情况下，还可能漏报。\n机制解释\n交互性\n只会分析“交互”产生时所影响到相关代码的安全风险，而不是扫描所有代码、配置文件或遍历整个站点。\n插桩检测\n是在保证目标程序原有逻辑完整的情况下，在特定位置插入探针，在应用程序运行时，通过探针获取请求，代码数据流，代码控制流等。基于请求，代码，数据流，控制流等综合分析判断漏洞.\n\n你可以说它部署在应用程序运行的代理或传感器上\n\n由于该技术针对不同语言需要研发不同的插桩探针，因此对于厂商而来，其IAST工具每增加对一种语言的支持，即相当于开发一款新产品，也就意味着IAST工具支持的编程语言越多，厂商所需投入的人力成本和经济成本也就越大。\n如果语言本身提供了插桩的接口，那么探针开发的难度将会大大降低。例如Java提供了一个instrumentation 接口。通过该接口，可以以一种标准的方式，在启动应用时添加javaagent参数来加载插桩探针，从而实现动态数据流污点追踪。\nSAST&amp;DAST混合\n\n第一点是如何“理解”代码。根据不同语言来区分，需要关注哪些函数，这些函数里哪些是污点输入？哪些是污点传播、清洗、汇聚？根据不同的漏洞原理来做分析。\n第二点，从各种语言底层做突破，捕获关键函数的调用情况？读取到关键函数何时被调用、传入了什么参数、数据传递给了谁。\n\n工作模式\n\n现在较先进的IAST是支持两种模式，主动相当于可以发起测试，被动相当于只判定漏洞\n\n\n\n主动模式：接收到相应流量，在对流量进行初步筛查后，将流量发送到扫描控制端，扫描控制端会结合payload进行数据流重放，重放验证过程中根据请求和响应，及函数代码执行流，判断其中是否存在安全漏洞，主动模式支持漏洞复现。\n\n\n被动模式：引入动态污点技术，当一个请求流量输入后，给变量打上污点标记，在整个函数内部流转时，当变量携带着污点标记在整个函数内部流转时，就可以观察它经历了哪些函数，整个过程就是一个污点传播过程。\n\n在被动模式下，仅会对触发的流量进行扫描分析，为保证测试效果，触发的流量越全面，扫描越安全。\n不需要数据重放，也就意味着不存在脏数据；对于签名和加密接口都有很好的处理效率。\n\n\n\n\n漏洞发现后处理\n经判断存在风险需处理的漏洞，进行漏洞修复并更新至测试环境后，需再次触发漏洞所在的url，此时IAST插桩会自动进行回归测试，如系统判断该漏洞已修复，则会自动关闭该漏洞。\n一句话总结\nIAST通过运行时插桩或流量分析的方法，借助于功能测试或自动化测试的交互式行为，实现透明、高效分析应用漏洞，防止应用带病上线。\n污点分析实现三关键\n实现污点分析，有三个核心关键点\n\nsource点：表示外部输入，如web输入，文件输入等\nsink点：表示危险的函数调用或者变量赋值，如system等函数\nsanitizer：表示过滤点，经过过滤点的数据将被取消标记\n\n\n污点分析从user_input一路进行数据流追踪\n\n污点追踪漏洞发现举例\n\n以XXE实体注入漏洞为例\n\n\n通过RequestResponseBodyMethodProcessor.resolveArgument这个方法参数，引入了请求中postData的XML实体，将该实体标记为污点数据\n而后XML实体污点数据进入传播阶段，在传播阶段，探针会hook代码中String类型的方法（如String,StringReader,StringBuilder,subString等），这些String类型的方法称为传播函数，会对污点源进行String处理\n从污点数据可见，XML实体经过处理后，被封装到了一个对象内部（java.io.StringReader@20cca27a），此时java.io.StringReader@20cca27a也会被探针标记为污点数据，加入到污点集中继续进行污点追踪\n经过污点输入，传播两个阶段，污点数据会进入到污点汇聚过程。对于不同的漏洞而言，探针hook的汇聚函数有所不同，如针对SQL注入会hook语句执行的方法，针对XXE漏洞会hook解析XML实体的方法\n汇聚阶段被AbstractSAXParser.parse方法执行了解析操作，因为XXE漏洞最后阶段就是解析XML实体，所以污点追踪过程到此就结束了，探针此时会释放所有污点数据，不再继续追踪下去\n纵观整个污点数据流转过程，这个漏洞被上报的原因是：输入源XML实体在污点输入阶段，没有对请求包中的XML实体内容进行校验就进行了引入，在传播阶段，只进行了一次对象转换操作，没有对引入的XML实体做相应的无害化处理，直到对象在污点汇聚阶段被解析方法进行解析。整一个过程，探针没有识别到污点数据在三个阶段有任何的清洁函数，故此漏洞最终被上报。\n\nOpenRASP-IAST\n目前支持的漏洞检测\n\n触发条件均为用户输入的参数直接拼接产生的漏洞，尚不支持非HTTP参数，参数编解码方式触发的漏洞\n\n\n\n命令注入\n\n\n目录遍历\n\n\nPHP eval代码执行\n\n\n文件上传\n\n\n文件包含\n\n\n任务文件读取\n\n\n任意文件写入\n\n\nSQL注入\n\n\nSSRF\n\n服务器请求伪造，对于远程url没有进行严格过滤的情况下，攻击者可通过该漏洞控制web网站作为代理服务器远程攻击服务器或该web的本地服务器。一般情况下，其攻击目标是外网无法访问的内部系统。其危害有，利用协议获取本地文件；可对内网、本地进行端口扫描，查看端口开闭状态；发现漏洞后攻击运行在内网或本地的应用程序；通过访问默认文件实现对内网web应用的指纹识别。其触发的场景，可能有转码服务，图片加载与下载，url获取内容收藏等。可通过限制请求端口，禁用不需要的协议，统一错误信息等来进行限制\n\n\n\nJava XXE\n\n\n被动模式+fuzz测试\nOpenRASP-IAST是被动扫描模式，不会使用爬虫技术去获取URL信息，当iast.js下发成功，Java/PHP内部的探针会自动在请求结束时，将本次请求的参数，hook点信息提交给openrasp-iast服务器进行分析，并选择性的fuzz目标\n\nfuzz -模糊测试的代名词，所谓模糊测试，即为向应用提供非预期输入，从而检测程序逻辑漏洞。例如模拟用户面对输入框犯傻的时候总会出现一些“奇葩”的非预期初入，此外，模仿攻击者向应用、加密内容、操作系统指令或原始代码注入命令行函数，来检视程序会出现什么情况\n\n将IAST部署至测试环境，并长期运行。在QA，RD做单元测试，功能测试时自动的进行漏洞检测。检测目标按照IP：PORT或者HOST进行分组，每个目标可以有不同的配置，若勾选 自动启动扫描 选项，则会在发现新目标时自动启动扫描任务。\n运行时应用程序自我保护（RASP）\n\nRuntime Application Self-Protection\n\n集成到应用程序中分析用户流量和行为模式，以阻止和防止攻击。RASP部署在生产服务器上，工作模式更像传统的web应用程序防火墙（WAF），但RASP技术使用AI和机器学习来代替正则表达式匹配，将保护程序像“免疫血清”一样注入到应用程序中，与应用程序融为一体，能实时检测和阻断安全攻击，使应用程序具备自我保护能力。\nRASP是一种基于服务器的技术，应用程序开始运行就会激活，每个RASP系统都有自己的一组安全规则列表，用于交叉检查事件和相关数据，确保只有允许的事情才能执行，每种RASP技术提供的保护级别取决于安全规则的深度及实现类型。\n\n通过对请求调用的关键函数进行监听，拦截各种绕过流量检测的威胁攻击\n几乎所有的攻击手段最终都可归纳成敏感命令执行，敏感文件读写，敏感数据库操作等异常行为\n开源软件和第三方漏洞被利用时，执行到代码底层，通常聚焦到一些敏感函数上，如反序列化，数据库执行，命令执行，文件操作，响应返回等相关函数\n支持动态下发热补丁修复风险，可在不中断业务同时为系统提供临时保护，争取宝贵时间，紧急上线的项目也可以利用此特性临时加固\n\n\n除了执行代码检查，RASP还能做应用服务器启动时的安全配置规范检查，如进程启动账号检查，弱口令检查，重要cookie是否开启http-only配置等\n\n通过RASP的改造应用，可提升应用内敏感数据流向的可见性。例如，记录应用对数据库的查询行为，明确应用和表，字段间的依赖关系；记录应用http response信息，发现应用将敏感信息返回给客户端的行为；还可为数据加解密提供支撑。\n成熟RASP三构成\n安全插件\n实现RASP防御能力的执行模块，要求消耗低，能收集应用中间件/开发语言/语言版本/操作系统等信息，并通过与数据调度器的数据联动，实现资产信息传递，入侵防御，漏洞数据分析等功能\nAI攻击检测引擎\n判定攻击行为的决策中心：结合外部安全威胁情报中心，借助上下文情景分析能力，通过纵深流量学习算法，自主学习正常访问模型，防御未知的漏洞风险\n\n不是说其它工具都是基于正则的，哪怕SAST也有不同层级的实现，解决不同难度的问题\n\n概念解释：东西向流量\n\n\n南北向流量：外部发起\n\n\n东西向流量：内部产生\n\n\n\n探针平等对这些进入应用程序的数据进行分析\n\n管理平台\n\n展示应用资产，安全检测，分析，防御结果\n提供集中管控工具，统一下发配置和指令\n可视化展示应用的状态，安全态势，为安全事件处理和能力优化提供数据决策支撑\n\n工作流程简介\n\n\n大部分安全检测逻辑都在插件中实现，当引擎检测到敏感行为时，会依次调用插件进行检测，支持对数据库，文件，网络行为等进行检测（插件以js语法写成）\n\n\nJava版在服务程序启动时，动态修改Java字节码，对敏感操作的函数进行挂钩，如数据库操作，文件读取写入操作，命令执行…当攻击发生，就会触发这些Hook点，此时RASP agent就可以获取到函数的参数，如要读取的文件名，要执行的命令等\n\n\n基于启动时的插桩操作，当有类被ClassLoader加载时，该类的字节码先交给自定义的Transformer处理，判断是否为要Hook的类，如是则交给javassist字节码处理框架进行处理，类的字节码被按事件驱动模型逐步解析每个方法，当触发了需hook的方法，会在方法开头或结尾插入进行检测函数的字节码，然后把hook好的字节码返回给Transformer从而载入虚拟机\n\n字节码存储在.class文件中，每个.class文件包含一个java类或接口。\njavassist就是一个用来处理java字节码的类库，可在一个已编译好的类中添加新的方法，或修改已有方法，不要求你对字节码方面有深入的了解。它也可以去生成一个新的类对象，这点相较于反射方式不同，反射只能编辑一个对象，不能动态生成一个类\n\n\n\n实际过程细节，比如上的介绍复杂一丢丢，进此传送门去搜索\n\n\nOpenRasp的agent端和IAST agent端在探针端有近似的任务，可IAST还要配一个扫描器，接收agent报上来的请求数据，识别要关注验证的活，开始自动做渗透测试任务\n\n换种说法，你可以说RASP agent再加一个扫描器（fuzz测试发起的服务端），即可实现一个完整的IAST扫描工具\n\n\n\nSQL检测举例\n\n数据库操作的例子\n\n\n\n收到请求，进入服务器请求的hook点，开启当前线程的检测开关，并把请求对象和响应对象进行缓存，以便后面使用\n\n\nSQL查询被发起\n\n\n进入SQLStatementHook点，RASP挂钩了execute,executeUpdate,executeQuery等方法，从这些方法进入的检测流程如下\n\n受限来自标记线程的调用，才会激活检测\n采集connection_id（仅JDBC支持），SQL语句和数据库类型等信息\n在插件的执行安全检测，决定是拦截请求还是放行仅打印日志\n\n\n\n进入SQLResultSetHook点，RASP挂钩了resultSet.next方法\n\n调用插件检查是否发生拖库行为，默认策略为一次查询结果超过500条就告警\n\n\n\n若决定拦截攻击\n\n输出告警日志到logs/alarm.log\n如果header还没发出，默认用302跳转到拦截页面\n如body还没发出，则重置未发送的body\n输出自定义拦截页面跳转js脚本\n\n\n\nR(I)ASP补充信息\nJava版本工作原理介绍\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/java.html\nphp版本\nOpenRasp核心原理为：在MINIT阶段，替换全局compiler_globals的funciton_table与class_table中特定的PHP_FUNCTION对应的函数指针（封装原有的handler，增加前置，后置处理），由此实现对敏感函数的挂钩。通过敏感函数参数结合请求信息判断是否存在攻击行为，进而采取拦截或者放行操作。\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/php.html\nOpenRASP项目已经实现相当于IAST agent端的OpenRASP agent，在此基础上引入一个扫描端，即可实现一个完整的IAST扫描工具\n系统架构\n灰盒扫描工具采用python3实现，数据库采用mysql，通讯采用http+json的方式\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/iast.html\nHook函数列表\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/hook.html\n添加新的hook点\n支持自定义hook函数，开放的体系\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/hook.html\n参考\n1.安全左移理念，鹅厂DevSecOps如何实践？ ↩2.悬镜产品，《云原生下的IAST落地实践》 ↩3.58集团，白盒代码审计系统技术选型 ↩4.CodeQL入门，CodeQL从入门到放弃 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["运维"]},{"title":"IT系统安全方案导论","url":"/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html","content":"\n纲要\n狭义安全\n\n数据安全\n系统管理安全\n\n广义安全\n\n异常发现与系统高可用\n灾备与恢复\n质量流程\n\n信息安全三要素\n\n策略\n管理\n技术\n\n\n狭义安全的本质\n本质是信息（数据）的安全。\n\n\nIT 系统运行在可被访问的设备上，通过开放一系列的交互接口提供系统管理、信息处理和查看服务。\n\n\n信息=资源，一切信息互动的过程，都关联着操作角色（身份）的概念。只有合适的人面对和处理着合适的信息，才是信息安全的意义所在。\n\n\nmindmap\n  Root[IT系统（数据+业务逻辑）]\n    A[生产]\n    B[查看]\n    C[分析]\n狭义安全的体系建设分为两大部分\n\n系统的信息角色体系划分和制度管控\n防范信息角色体系被突破/误用（提升突破难度）的系统和机制\n\n物理环境和软件平台的安全建设，隔离防护及漏洞修复响应\n交互接口的鉴权\n信息传输过程的防护\n系统分层设计实施的健壮性\n恶意行为的启发式发现和追踪机制\nand more…\n\n\n\nIT系统的特征及网络时代的安全挑战\nIT 系统特征是分层分级，每一层都要有相应的安全策略，一环薄弱就会导致糟糕的木桶效应，威胁整体系统的信息安全。\n\n分层分级也是满足安全性这个非功能需求的诉求\nblock-beta\ncolumns 6\n访问源:3\nblock:group6:3\nDNS解析劫持\n......\nend\n信息传输:3\nblock:group5:3\n流量劫持\n数据窃听\nM[\"......\"]\nend\nY[\"业务服务层《面向C端服务》《内部运营系统》\"]:3\nblock:group2:3\ncolumns 3\n操作鉴权疏漏 账号密码泄露 跨站伪造请求 恶意输入 DDOS 机器请求 数据脱敏不当 RST复位攻击 M2[\"......\"]\nend\nD[\"数据层《面向C端数据》《运营数据》《代码/文档》\"]:3\nblock:group3:3\ncolumns 3\n错误的赋权 A[\"账号密码泄露\"] 误操作 敏感数据未加密 数据备份缺失 M3[\"......\"]\nend\nI[\"信息/系统宿主环境《操作系统运维》《平台软件设置维护》\"]:3\nblock:group4:3\ncolumns 2\n错误的赋权 A2[\"账号密码泄露\"] 错误的账号赋权 错误的资源访问控制 M4[\"......\"]\nend\n\n💡 提示\n\n\n信息层的数据窃听，可通过传输数据加密（如 https）来安全强化\n\n\n业务服务层的 操作鉴权疏漏，可建设统一鉴权入口；跨站伪造请求 可强化请求来源验证；DDOS 可前置恶意流量清洗；机器请求可增加频率限制、验证码等措施\n\n\n\n网络时代的安全挑战\n\n来自黑产或黑帽子等的作恶行为，如分布式拒绝服务攻击（DDOS），流量窃听等等。\n社会工程学导致角色体系依赖的密码机制更容易被攻破\n\n选择云服务商的三大原因\n\n构建和运维系统较低的成本支出「金钱成本、时间成本」\n可靠的运维服务质量和快速的扩容响应能力\n契合网络时代系统建设的安全防护特性（启发式防护和高频度攻击清洗能力）\n\n整体方案选型是综合成本和性能效率的产物，例如防范 DDOS 攻击，需要投入较高的成本，云服务商的统一建设和免费防护是一大优势。\n安全落地三要素\n大量的环节可能因为人的因素（及团队人员水平不一致）引入风险，技术只能提升误操作和作恶的门槛，各层级配以安全策略还要结合管理控制。正所谓在安全和分控领域，三分技术，七分管理。\n策略\n\n信息访问来源筛查过滤业务 环境\n系统接口级别统一鉴权业务\n数据访问接口传输加密传输\n敏感信息加密存储数据\n业务系统外部输入不信任开发原则业务\n云端及其仅支持密钥文件登陆环境\n数据备份数据\n管理员账号消除单点&amp;禁止直接登录环境\n\n管理\n\n角色账号细分维护，管理账号开放给少量人员\n普及提升全员安全意识和水平\n重要资料（文档/代码）分级别访问控制\n系统登陆行为日志记录\n数据变更日志记录\n人员退出时的账号注销机制\n异常账户冻结机制\n不引入不成熟的技术方案\n\n技术\n\n启发式恶意行为预警\n恶意流量清洗\n优选降低人工参与度的方案，充分发挥程序的客观高效性\n\n广义安全的系统预案\n异常发现与系统高可用\n\n服务异常发现（监控预警）\n架构 Design for failure\n鸡蛋不放在一个篮子里\n异常服务自动恢复\n有损服务\n\n灾备&amp;恢复\n\n数据热备\n数据恢复演练\n自动化部署\n版本回滚\n\n质量流程\n\n发布审核和权限管控\n版本质量跟踪系统\n代码高危函数扫描\n异常信息上报收集跟进\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"LVS三类工作模式","url":"/LVS%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n业界明星\nLVS是国内程序员界为行业付出的最响当当产品了，在互联网界更是采用的多。\n背景介绍\n个人认为LVS出现的基础有三点：\n\nIPV4 公网ip不够用的现状\n加之DNS更新调整的麻烦度\n服务器之间需要负载均衡，硬件负载均衡还是贵，原来国外大厂的闭源软件同样也贵\n\n在TCP/IP协议簇上，能做到的方案肯定最低工作在IP层做路由转发和负载均衡。\n大家都用过交换机和路由器，家用的都是路由器，因为有公网IP，一台路由器代理几台设备，家用路由器NAT转换协议也是为上面1,2点而来。\n作者语述\n真正有用的软件来源于实际应用，不同于闭门造车想象出来的功能，且看LVS作者章文嵩博士的回忆：\n\n“我在国防科大学读书之余，也帮湖南电信做一些系统集成项目，见到许多服务器忙不过来的情况。这时就需要考虑负载均衡。那时业界也有一些商用方案，常用的是思科LocalDirector。我希望在Linux内核上写点东西，又知道思科LocalDirector的工作原理。所以我当时就花了两个星期写了一个最简单的版本，那是1998年5月。（一套LocalDirector当时价值几万美元，我那时心里有疑问——这东西并不难写，为什么卖那么贵？）”\n\n\n\n“当时LVS开源放在网上一个星期，就被一家澳大利亚小公司用起来了，公司的负责人写邮件感谢我，说效果很好。我觉得这件事挺有意思，因为自己写的软件被别人用起来了，为他人创造了价值。2000年前后，收到了许多用户的感谢邮件。也有公司给我捐送服务器，有个瑞士用户寄了一大包饼干来感谢我。我把饼干拿回家，被丈母娘看到了，她说原来你半夜这么辛苦地工作，就是为了一大包饼干啊。\n做这些事是很有成就感的，更多的是乐趣。”\n\n硬核正题\n旁话不多讲，进工作模式正题。\n介绍前，先列几个缩写概念：\n1. LB(Load Balancer) :负载均衡器，也就是装有LVS（ipvsadm）的server2. VIP(VirtualIP):给远程客户端提供服务的外部IP，LVS设备具有此IP3. real server:后端提供真是服务的server4. RIP(Real Server IP):后端realserver的IP\nLVS有三种工作模式\n1.DR（direct routing直接路由）\n2.NAT（Network Address Translation网络地址转换）\n3.Tune（IP Tunneling隧道）\nNAT模式\n所有real server可分配保留私有地址，只有LB分配一个公网IP，但所有的请求包和应答包都经过LB，且不说网卡流量问题。包因为要修改再生，需要消耗CPU时间。举个例子，如果TCP包平均长度536字节，平均再生延迟60纳秒，那么这个延迟，导致LB的最大允许吞吐能力是8.93M/s（1/60*536）。做负载均衡，real server多了，就满足不了要求（如果单台real server允许400K/s，22台就达到极限）。这种模式下LB很容易成为整个系统的瓶颈。NAT通常的负担量也就在20台real server左右。\nDR模式\n与NAT模式一样，同样要求real server与LB在同一物理网段，这样对组网布线是有要求的。且realserver上须有一块网卡不接受arp广播（同样配上VIP）。\n涉及网络细节，且性能在三种模式下最好，详细讲下DR过程【模式出现 动机之一，在于现实发现许多Internet服务（例如WEB服务器）的请求包很短小，而应答包通常很大。如果只让LB处理入包，定可以提升吞吐能力】。\n\n客户端得到服务的目的IP（为VIP，可能是通过DNS查询），目的端口80。\n于是客户端与VIP的80端口建立连接，LVS在VIP上收到之后，根据均衡策略，从后端realserver中选出一台（RIP1）作为此次请求的接收者，然后将请求包的目的mac地址更改为RIP1的mac地址，封装后转发给后端的RIP1，同时将该链接记录在hash表中。\nRIP1的某块网卡，如eth0，接收到这个转发包看到mac地址是自己的，于是就转发给上层的IP层，IP层解包后，发现目的IP地址也是自己（VIP配置在一块non-arp的网卡上，如lo:0）,然后接着根据协议上传。\n应用处理完请求后，将数据传给TCP，TCP将源端口改为80，源IP更改为VIP，目的端口更改为客户端端口，目的IP为客户端IP，IP层根据目的地址进行路由，然后经网络返给Client，完成了一次请求，而不经过LB。\n\nDR模式的优缺点：\n优：可扩展性强，LB不会成为业务增长的瓶颈\n缺：节点不能跨网段，real server上须有一块网卡不接受arp广播\nTUN模式\n就是针对DR模式的物理网段限制而来，针对互联网业务的特点，也比NAT效率高。但需要所有的服务器支持 “IP Tunneling(IP Encapsulation)”协议。但跨网段，服务器离的近，还好，离得不近，则网络延迟会成为主要瓶颈。\n后记\n\n当前7层负载均衡，如Nginx已经让程序员大呼方便，但7层的效率肯定比不了在3层的处理效率，聊以此文，作为LVS工作模式简短总结介绍。\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["网络"]},{"title":"Me vs. Me","url":"/Me-vs.-Me.html","content":"\nI don’t care who is doing better than me,\n\n我不在乎谁比我做得更好\n\nbecause the truth is, I’m not in competition with anyone else.\n\n因为事实是，我与任何人都不是竞争关系。\n\nThe only person I need to be better than is the person I was yesterday.\n\n我需要超越的唯一一人，是昨天的我\n\n\nLast year，I was different.\n\n去年，我是不同的\n\nI’ve grown, improved, and learned a lot.\n\n我成长了，进步了，学到了很多。\n\nThat’s what really matters.\n\n这才是最重要的。\n\nIt’s me versus me.\n\n这是我和我自己的较量。\n\nEvery day，I wake up ready to push myself further,\n\n每天，我醒来都准备好挑战自己，\n\nto challenge my limits, and become the best version of myself.\n\n突破极限，成为最好的自己。\n\nI don’t let other people’s success make me feel small.\n\n我不会让别人的成功让我觉得渺小，\n\nTheir journey is theirs, and mine is mine.\n\n他们的旅程是他们的，我的旅程是我的。\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"OKR VS KPI","url":"/OKR-VS-KPI.html","content":"OKR 全称是 Objectives and Key Results，而 KPI 的全称是 Key Performance Indicators。\n\n参加一次敏捷培训引起的兴趣后记\n\n如果用一张图来解说\n\n说文解字：Objectives VS Indicators\n一个关注目标，一个关注指标，前者思考做什么事，后者思考如何评价。方向对了，不怕路途遥远，方向不对，指标漂亮也无甚意义，且选择衡量什么，你就得到什么。一个做正确的事儿，一个正确的做事。\n这两档子概念，对于大厂来说比较有意义，大公司的管理比较刻板，管理层无法触及一线，而一线正是对绩效和产出负责的，合适的衡量项，将决定了你的人力资源效益。\n选用KPI的超集OKR，有更灵活衡定的选择面（除了可量化，还有里程碑），可以让投入更加聚焦，更加敢于投入。\n科技巨头为什么乐于用OKR ？创新的引入经常不便于量化衡量，这就导致行使KPI机制的单位，常常孕育了不利于创新的大环境。\n\n换一种角度阐述\n\n\nKPI：从目标到行动计划\n\n优点：目标的上下一致性较好，结果控制\n不足：每个职位要做的工作本身，协同性可能差一点\n\n\n授权越充分的职位，越适合KPI\n\n\n\nOKR：从行动计划到目标\n\n优点：每个职位要完成的目标与其承担的工作有较好的逻辑关系\n不足：不同职位同类任务目标之间和上下级目标间可能缺乏一致性\n\n过程控制，管理成本高。经常要对齐：目标有无变化，有无遗漏\n一旦有遗漏，会导致总结果不好\n\n\n\n\n团队目标不是来自各成员之和，而是 分工 之后的结果之和，更适合用OKR\n对整体目标的实现影响越大的职位，越适合用OKR。岗位权重不同，在目标的可实现过程中，需要分解来保障，越是分解的透彻，目标可行性越有保障\n\n\n\n从OKR的不足出发，需要在实施OKR的团队时，必须分担一些团队共性目标。\n最本质区别\n\n在于控制的着眼点\n\nKPI 控制目标总和拆解一致，直接分解小目标给个人，个人再得出个人分工\nOKR 控制工作清单协同一致，再分工给个人，个人再得出小目标\n让自由和方向达成一种平衡\n雇员与组织目标保持一定的前提下，需站得更高，看得更远。\n100%能被完成的OKR不好，70%完成度的OKR却近乎完美，知道极限，才有继续提升空间。\n目标不是考核某个团队或员工，而是提醒。依靠员工的自主性和创造性去完成任务，达成分段标题里的平衡。\n管理动作/制度不要超越了你的经营水平\n上一段吹了那么多，不是说KPI族的更细的可衡量不对，生产制造型或可预测型的工种或领域，强调可量化还是挺有意义的，不同行业的从业人员工作性质和特点不同，管理方式也不同。\n别人的东西用得再好，最终还是要因地制宜（结合所处的经营水平），华为先僵化再优化的路线，是个好路子（也有它的市场和经营阶段支撑它要&amp;能坚持下来），再比如说丰田只有一个，谷歌也还没出现第二个一样，各家都有公开的明星做法，你学却你“死”。\n都是工具，服务好解决问题就好。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队"]},{"title":"PRC的道路","url":"/PRC%E7%9A%84%E9%81%93%E8%B7%AF.html","content":"\n中国历史上哪个朝代开国难度最高？\n目前为止是本朝\n\n\n别的朝代基本都是在打国服，偶尔联机国际服，但国际服难度不大\n\n\n近代国服和国际服开始合并服务器了「上溯到一千八百四十年，从那時起，为了反对内外敌人，争取民族独立和人民自由幸福，在历次斗争中牺牲的人民英雄们永垂不朽」\n\n\n为何资本主义道路在 75 年前走不通？\n\n在 90 年代的教科书中，并没有解释，只简单一句让人背诵，要考。实际上老人家是有自己的论述的，的确有实事求是的道理\n\n资本主义道路发展几百年，比社会主义制度成熟的多。但中国人口多， 民族多，封建主义历史长，地区发展不平衡，近代又被帝国主义弱肉强食，搞得民不聊生，实际上四分五裂。我们这样的条件搞资本主义只能是别人的附庸。帝国主义在能源，资金许多方面都有优势，美国对西欧资本主义国家既合作又排挤，怎么可能让落后的中国独立发展，后来居上？过去中国走资本主义道路走不通，『现在』（老人家讲话那会儿）还是走不通。如果要走就要牺牲劳动人民的根本利益，这就违背了共产党的宗旨和井冈山的追求，国内的阶级矛盾和民族矛盾都会激化，搞不好还会被敌人利用，四分五裂危险的很。我们要摸索出中国的社会主义道路，避免走资本主义道路防止修正主义，要继承和发扬井冈山的一些好制度好作风。\nPRC 开始三十年的成就\n1.全民扫盲+2.反赌+3.禁毒+4.解放农奴+5.改造妓女+6.土地改革+7.普及农村医疗+8.消灭天花等多种传染病、疟疾等多种寄生虫病+9.收复西藏、新疆+10.兴修全世界最大的水利工程+11.建立完整工业体系+12.把美国为首的联合国军打回三八线+13.打赢苏联，印度，越南等所有边界战争+14.收复西沙+15.从 0 到 1 突破原子弹，卫星，氢弹，洲际导弹，核潜艇+16.坐上联合国五常位置\n这些事，换成任何一个半殖民地国家，不要说 30 年，给他 100 年也做不到\n\n周末一个有钱的恨国党朋友聊起民国的评价，他说民国接了清朝的超级烂摊子，面临的情况很糟糕，周围还有一个过去从未有过的工业强邻日本，做得其实还不赖。熬败了日本后，PRC 面临的情况要好了些，着实无语。\n『交给他们一个国家，他们没有能力治好，交给他们一个省，最后自己成为了在野党』\n\n国共两党的对比\n两个党基因很大的不同！\n国民党一堆的 Founder 都是大文人，大名士，大海龟，非常讲学历，战斗力就自然不行，这一堆 Founder，活到台湾的有的是，一直干扰部门经理升上来的蒋的经营。蒋一方面无雄才，一方面其主抓的黄埔军校也是个速成学校，太速成了，甚至开学一年多就上战场打仗去了，所以蒋退到台湾之前还是依赖海龟那些大知识分子。国民党经营也差的太远，对外吸收入股，兼并收购，大家一块分享股权，内部斗争也远没有共产党来得凶悍，团队建设信任钱和位子这一套。\n而我党迅速摆脱了需要海龟，需要总公司派人来，需要空降 CEO ，需要总公司的钱的情况。且发现从总公司那泵来的专利产品在中国还不是特别灵，就开始自己研发产品。共产党完全做到不停开除 CEO，每一任 CEO 只要你不符合这公司的企业文化，就立即开除你，不管你是海龟还是土鳖，是大知识分子还是工人，这公司有铁一样的纪律，有强大的企业文化，一直向前进，在外面不跟你们妥协，不让你们入股，在里面坚定推行自己的企业文化，用了一大批学历普遍不高的实干家，转向所有从战斗中成长起来的人。\n\n留欧勤工俭学的这一大批人，真正拿到学位的只有聂荣臻一个人，其他人都是以革命为主，开各种少共的中央会议，以勤工为辅，以读书为辅辅，没有拿到什么学历，在欧洲主要工作就是发展党员，例如周总理在欧洲发展了朱德。\n留苏的这帮人也没正经在苏联大学里读过什么书，只有极少数人去过伏龙芝军事学院，如刘亚楼。绝大多数是在苏联的中山大学、东方大学，这两个有点像蒋中正在日本的振武学堂，专门为中国留学生办的预科，学语言，培训速成一下。\n\n任何公司的本质都是「与人分红的工具」的一个产品！\n朝鲜战争加速了社会主义路线\n建国之初新民主主义发展战略，认为农民为社会基础的小农经济进不了社会主义，需通过几十年的交换逐渐形成积累再进入工业化，才能搞社会主义。教员对全党讲得也明白，这个初期搞不得社会主义。\n一场朝鲜战争打来了一个大工业，苏联把重装备生产线整装搬到了中国，也来了斯大林特色的国家资本主义。53 年朝鲜战争还没结束时，统战部长约教员报告，以现在的一般经验来看，东北留下的工业是斯大林主义的国家资本主义，如果战后留下了，建议改变经济发展模式。45 年时苏联对中共没那么信任，觉得是民族主义的农民党，加之雅尔塔协定老政客斯大林盘算惦记日本在东北的资产，故把日本留在东北的所有设备尽数抬走，也提防你发展工业与他对抗（苏联远东部署薄弱，东北强大的工业体系让斯大林极度缺乏安全感）。一场战争打成同盟关系了，战争后产业要不要留，当然要留。\n56 年教员约见荣毅仁，王光英两大民族资本家代表，咱们都是要为中华民族工业化的振兴，都被打了这么多年，你们说要不要加快工业化呢？当然是要。要加快工业化，要看谁快，是私人资本主义快，还是国家资本主义快，谁快谁改造谁。那当然是国家资本主义快，所以完成私人资本主义改造。\nPRC 的四场社会实验\n打破阶级实现均等\n49-79 年，5000 年的历史里，打破政权不新鲜，但打破阶级是头一次。从 50 年 6 月颁布土改法，开始从农村斗地主和富农，给了贫农和中农一次翻身的机会，这几个阶层开始流通起来。在城市，通过三大改造运动，开始公私合营，建立国有资本。五四宪法收尾明确了土地的国有性质，这个阶段，原来掌握生产资料的阶级被消灭。我们回头看，就城市和农村被打破的程度而言，农村破的要更彻底，它是通过斗争这种暴力形式实现的。城市就温柔很多，大部分靠兼并和赎买。这场打破阶级实验的目的是什么，5 个字，实现均等化。体现在就业、教育和医疗三方面。这场实验中，全国就业率大幅度提升，尤其是妇女就业。\n当然分粥的人多了，能分到的粥自然就变少了。虽然工资少，但有班上确实让人们的社会地位开始趋向平等化。建国20%的小学入学率到了 65 年也来到了 89%。远超世界上其他低收入国家。赤脚医生制度在 69 年就覆盖了农村 90%的人口。结果名副其实，但也是有代价，由于打破了农村传统的阶级结构，宗族社会，导致基层管理难度远大于过往的时代。基层干部其实只是管理者，大部分没水平也做不到士绅那样的意识形态引领者\n拥抱科技拥抱人性\n79-02 年，生产力水平不足，养不起越来越多的人口，鼓励会折腾敢折腾的老登们重操旧业，那群人或一代后代还在，唤醒他们的创业记忆，允许一部分人先富起来。苏联没改成功有一个原因是社会结构被打破太久了，能给市场经济注入活力的个体户们坟头草已经几米高了。就剩一群寡头了，你指望寡头们能给市场经济带来活力？他们只会瓜分，结果就是苏联被玩散了。\n92 南巡后大大加速，还迎来了 98 房改，最大的一次财富洗牌。这场实验中先富带动后富的美好愿望并没有实现，贫富差距的状况逐渐积累\n探索资源配置方式\n02-15年，开始探索钱怎么分，这也是难度系数最高的一场社会实验。因为需要平衡三大势力：政府、市场、人民。想玩好这场制衡游戏，需要用到 6 脉神剑：分别是政府干预、市场机制、权利作用、关系作用、单位作用、公民博弈。政府干预用多了，会造成国资垄断，市场搞不好呢，官场勾结就更容易发生。权利滋生腐败、关系破坏法制、单位造成分配不公（喝茶看报与 996）、公民博弈又会造成群体性事件。\n缓解社会冲突\n15 年至今，改开 40 年一直转型，转型就会带来矛盾，矛盾就会有冲突。西方解决矛盾主要靠对外转嫁，我们则尝试把危机和矛盾去内部消化。与西方相比，中国最大优势不是资源和人口，而是动员能力。口罩让双方又重新认知了一次对方，老美惊讶我们一键暂停的能力，而我们也见识了老美对生命漠视的下限。二者在文化上的差异显而易见，一个是和为贵，就是整体利益，和西方个体本位文化完全不同。这种不同也会体现在应对冲突的缓冲机制上，中国家庭有经济互助，西方亲戚间少经济往来，中国这种就像加了一种免疫体系，对冲突有一定的自愈能力，40 年来虽矛盾不断但并未形成全国性事件，文化属性下的自愈能力也发挥了功效。\n从历史的纵向比较来看，还是处于近 100 年来的比较好的发展时期，还属于大治之世。社会实验也不会止步于此，还会继续向前走。\n华莱士采访邓\n\n\n\n如果毛还在世，会怎么看现在中国的政策？似乎有违他的主张\n答：毛泽东思想，现在还是我们的指导思想，可见我们没有违背他的主张。（打马虎眼过去了）\n\n\n邓领导下的中国和毛领导下的不一样，似乎在进行另一场革命\n答：（这个答起来就比较来劲）我们的确在进行一场革命，但中国还是那个中国，没有改变，这样做的目的还是为了让中国人民过上好日子「用商品经济的手段解决物资短缺的时局状况」，只不过我们对于过去的经验有一些总结，提出一些新的看法，如果建设共产主义我们总要摸索前进，不能因为现在有所不同就片面否定过去，我们本质没有改变。\n\n\n站着回头看\n三中全会后，邓的实用思想管了几十年，有它的功效和历史地位，就是解构毛的一套，有助于人的思想解放，大搞建设积累资产追赶科技，但回避了中国到底要一个怎样的发展与文明目标的问题，其局限性和带来的问题今天已非常明显。当前的当局（曾）想捏合毛与邓的思想，何其难也，也正凸显伟人只有一个。虽然现在也到了一个时候，需重新定义民族的现代性构建方向，价值标准。\n这个世界教员看得很清楚，一直强调自强并团结（天安门城楼的标语也在 1950 年由「中央人民政府万岁」换成「世界人民大团结万岁」），其留给人民真正的强者文化是：自强辅弱，团结互助，平等尊重。而不良强者向人民灌输片面自强，引向极端利己主义，忽略团结，这也是不良者希望看到的结果，而他们自己抱团。人民也的确就被片面的强者文化引向利己，继而再次对自己的同胞带上傲慢与偏见。当你深入了解那片土地，就能深刻理解那片土地的人民配得上他们的苦难。\n\n教员可称为新墨家的钜子，先秦墨家评断可见墨家从流行到没落，以庄子的话说墨子反天下之心，注定无法长久。墨子在的时候能很好协调墨徒的兼容性，钜子走后时代分裂和门人凋敝和之前也挺像，现行秦墨之道，身在其中，祝福祖国繁荣富强。\n中国家庭没有看到国有企业的高利润变成自己财富的一部分，当然从长远看，国企创造的财富被重新分配，着实在二次分配中为公民服务了，但现在普通家庭认为他们并未从中受益，所以消费水平比他们的实际购买力低。\n为什么解放军那么受欢迎爱戴\n抛开思想，那几乎是教员留下来的唯一遗产了，让我们绕过无耻知识分子的笔锋一窥开国时的气象。\n教员给中国底层造了个梦\n如「历史的教训」里说到的：\n\n人们间天然的不平等，就算发生了财富再分配，很快会发生新的占有和特权的不平等。唯一真正革命，是对心灵的启蒙和对个性的提升。\n唯一真正的革命者，是哲学家和圣人。\n\n而教员确是真正的革命者，不忘初心，可称圣人，又身兼哲学家，给神州大地留下了宝贵的主体性思想财产。二战以后，人类才步入人民史观的时代，且只有中国进入到这个时代，例如我们的邻居日本和韩国是血缘贵族时代。\n除去上古传说里的人物，他是中国 5 千年里第一个也是唯一一个舍弃自我利益，真正为底层民众谋福利的开国领袖（唯一自始至终都在为民奋斗，堪称真正的孤勇者），太多起义之初都宣称推翻残暴的统治者，为大众建立一个平等幸福的社会，但一旦政权得立，无一不一改嘴脸，把自己高高置于百姓之上，使天下重新成为一人之天下，一家之天下，一党之天下，因为皇帝轮流做，千里做官只为财的思想早已根植在中国，这些「思想钢印」老百姓也习惯了。当教员出现之后，人们才发现原来天下竟然也会有总是为穷人着想的队伍。\n他也是唯一一个改变人性的领导者，历史为什么总是循环往复？因为历史归根结底是由人性推动的，几千年来，人性是从来没有改变过的，人性中会有偶尔的光芒，但主要是贪婪，自私，这是生物本身的属性决定的，说不上多邪恶。然而，教员领导的革命和PRC却让人性中的光芒成为了主流，人们只有职业不同，思想简单纯粹，一心只想把国家建设好，之前的时代涌现了太多雷锋，焦裕禄式的传奇人物，这些都是与传统人性斗争中的奇迹。这些奇迹正是在教员领导的下的 RPC 人民创造的。遗憾的是奇迹只能保留在我们的记忆中了。因为，伟人不在了，而人性却一直没有改变。\n世间从不缺好的思想，制度，但缺抱有赤子之心一以贯之的人。一个没有英雄的国家是可悲的，一个连英雄都不知崇拜的民族是没有未来的。换句话说，什么是制度什么是文明？一个靠战争掠夺他国资源维持就是文明制度？一个讲小礼小节却无情屠戮他国就是文明？一个人前彬彬有礼身后殖民他国就是绅士？\n梦的希望\n古往今来，凡是讲了真话让他们幻想破灭的人，都会被他们群起攻之成为牺牲品，凡是能向他们提供美丽幻象的人，都很容易成为他们的主人，被他们膜拜。他们是不能活在真相里，而是需要活在希望里。《乌合之众》里说，谁掌握了影响大众想象力的艺术，就掌控了统治他们的艺术。\n\n如果人人都能享受闲暇和生活保障，原来由于贫困而愚昧无知的绝大多数人就会学习文化，独立思考，迟早就会认识到少数特权阶层的人没有作用，他们就会把他们扫除掉。从长期来看，等级社会只有在贫困和无知的基础上才能存在。— from 《1984》\n\n无论社会如何发展，都只是整体抬升，结构是大致不变的，放眼全球都是一群不良强者不择手段掠夺底层（教员之所以伟大，是他作为已站在世界最强者行列却从不愚弄弱者，从不欺凌弱者，而是像父亲、战士一样，教导者学生，关爱着子女，守护着人民）。\n\n看清人类的本质，世界上成熟的人只有1%，99%的人都是不成熟的巨婴，不可能掌握真理。他们并不想要真相和价值，它们只是渴望被理解和被认同。\n放宽一点，这个世界大约只有 5% 的人有愿望积累只是了解过去（还不一定能掌握真理），95%就是活着\n\n教员的晚年可用一词悲壮来概括。若没有晚年的坚守，他可能和历史上的人物区别不大。前半生是历史，后半生是人民。前者顺势而为，后者逆天而行。历史上打着人民旗号的比比皆是，前期都还好，遇难时需要人民，后面顺历史之势及欲望膨胀，几乎都变了。教员从青年到离去，心中和行动都未曾改变，以他的智慧比任何人都明白历史顺势和人性，只是他心里装的都是几千年来被称为沙子的人民。\n他看到了人民之光，知道自己走后很难能压住不良抬头，所以在余下的生命里拖着垂暮之躯，为人民发出最后一次明知不可为而为之的冲锋。他完全不在乎后面可能来的诋毁，哪怕毁了自己，知道会失败，只是在为人民拖延时间，让人民有时间成长起来，人人如龙，成为他超越他（只是已太老，队伍中也很多人不理解漏洞百出，无法成功）。离别前他心里只有担忧，六朝何事，只成门户私计，只有力不从心，以后你们怎么办，只有天知道，好在通过几代的交接和人民的不懈奋斗，中国现在已成为联合国的上三常，G2的一员，要为世界人民盖五件大瓦房，为世界走一条不同西方强盗的路。\n社与资的区别\n社和资的不同在于一个群体对另个群体的态度，讨好精英阶层比替底层说话更容易，走社本就是一个更难走的路（套用《历史的教训》里说的共产主义更似一个战时经济，不消一代人的和平就会被人的本性所侵蚀，这也是教员说的门户私计）。\n拿捏平衡社资融合\n四十年来我们经济飞速增长，达成国富，但我们现在面临的最大问题仍然是贫穷，富裕起来的只是沿海地区和少数的人群。经济的告诉增长掩盖或使得大家忘记了很多社会问题，我们那个体制的问题病的很重，分配不公和司法腐败，不满情绪实际也很多，一旦经济增速下来，这些被掩盖的问题都会回来。\n如题。在国家资本主义的工业化强国路上，旧道德并未带上路。现在艺术就是在拿捏平衡，在2049 年完成更好的治理现代性，从官僚垄断资本主义的沼泽中再拔回来一些（大洋彼岸是深陷金融垄断资本主义的泥沼，在乎赚取时间的速度，其它它都不关心，财富集中，外部压力减少，内部撕裂），重新在分配上找到更平衡的前进之道，全球或许最终走向是社和资的融合结果。\n\n列宁的国家资本主义有实用性，都非常成功的解决了工业化问题。发展到一定阶段，一定会出现官僚垄断资本主义，体现在经济、财政，金融，要素（如土地）的扭曲，例如90%税收主要来自于劳动者劳动，而不是对资本利得课税，这点就很扭曲。中国进入新世纪的阶段是官僚垄断资本主义，如何跨过是两个100年之间很有挑战的一个课题。\n\n中庸现实最优解\n教员是猛人，然后就需要守成之君。回到现实要改善老百姓的生活，首要矛盾就是生产力水平（更纯粹的内核是科学技术是第一生产力，能促进生产力的东西很多，糟粕也不少）。\n在这件事上引入资本主义和市场经济，发挥了重大的功效，或者一万年太久只争朝夕的话，甚至说必须要这么做。资本主义的贪婪和攀比心能牵动你的欲望，让你玩命干活（在不平等的社会里，人们会变得更在乎社会地位，变得喜欢跟别人比较，这场没有尽头的竞争，这就是资本主义）。\n\n在一定的阶段，人们需要被激励，所以不可能让每个人都赚同样多的钱，因为那样就没人努力工作。资本主义是创造财富的最佳方式，中国有 8 亿人摆脱了贫困。\n\n计划经济的问题\n大家经常提到计划经济的优势是集中力量办大事，但随着发展久了，最先集中起来的是干不好事的官僚（草台班子）。苏联号称全知全能国家计划委员会实际上不懂需求和供给，输出的自然是无效的生产和原料指标。\n信息失真\n他们不懂，会要求基层上报数据，但农庄会瞒报损失，工厂会夸大困难索要更多资源，信息传到莫斯科早就变了味，有个笑话。苏联皮鞋产量世界第一，但老百姓还是没皮鞋穿。因为工厂为了完成指标，全造了44码的大鞋，因为尺码大，用料多。\n决策滞后\n另一个严重问题是决策滞后，常做出的是上一代的图纸追赶下一代的市场的决策，这种问题使得苏联的家电业始终落后活在时差里，导航失效。计划经济里要把价格导航员绑起来，官员说了算。\n创新无力\n计划经济致命的短板，藏在（民生）『创新』这两个字里，在市场经济中，企业不创新，就会被淘汰。计划经济里只要完成指标就能活得滋润，谁还愿意费劲？伏尔加汽车几十年没改过，so what，计划指标里又没有用户体验这一项。 到了 80 年代，苏联的科技成果转化率只有美国的 1/3，工厂里设备平均寿命比美国长一倍，生产效率只有对方50%。\n恶性飞轮\n恶性循环，越想靠计划控制经济，越需要庞大的官僚体系，可官僚越庞大，信息越失真，腐败越严重，大家都看到了关系才有用。\n我们就比较灵活，弄了一套社会主义市场经济，既跳脱计划经济的僵化，又尝试规避市场经济的盲目性。\n靠对外开放启动的中国市场\n走上市场经济道路后封闭经济体往往要走漫长的积累阶段。因为生产端和需求端起初都穷，借贷太快会让资方都更快死火。（从企业角度是看不到劳动者和消费者的统一性的，他看到的是消费者没钱消费，我手里现金也不足，借钱扩大了生产没人买不就砸手里欠一屁股债，所以企业不敢冒险去借债），财富车轮有一个慢启动过程（一点点的赚取利润，用利润一点点扩大规模，劳动者收入跟着缓慢增长，消费能力缓慢强起来）\n有没有办法加速这个过程？这就不得不提到外贸和房地产了，房地产本质是在鼓励借贷，外贸就是去赚外国人的钱，国内人没钱消费，但国外有啊，新兴市场有成本优势，抢市场。我们干有成本优势，但无资金无技术，那就开放让外资和技术进来。\n在外部看来，投资新兴市场是血赚不亏的，汇率优势有升值预期，还有成本优势，投资中国企业要求汇报高利率，享受汇率和企业利润的双重收益。劳动者有钱了又拉动了内需，各行各业就借贷扩张，进入高发展飞轮。我们获得了外国市场，学到了技术，也快速完成了14亿人需求的货币化。给世界的补偿就是14亿人的巨大市场。\n回看市场经济\n现阶段，总体市场经济提高了中国人民的生活水平，代表了大部分人的利益，也有一部分人不公平。我们自己需要去调整它，从根本利益的角度，我们要去平衡和分配它，都是挑战和课题。它有马太效应，反而会制约生产力。资本主义不能失控，可以说是生产力掩盖了资本主义的弱点。\n从三个代表的角度来看，「资本和市场」确实代表先进生产力的方向，但其不一定孕育先进文化（例如消费文化可能就是有毒的文化），是否代表人民群众的根本利益这事讲起来复杂。是公有制效率高还是私有制效率高？要看什么地方私有制，该公有的一定要公有。\n中庸之道的反义词二极管，在国家运用中庸之道不能当成不思进取，而是合适，或者说最优解。\n国家资本主义的巅峰\n资本主义为了苟延残喘，会演化出它可能的一切形态，它允许国家扮演越来越重要的角色，调整其最初的纯粹私有制属性。如北欧式社会主义，特点是强化监管，提高税收，提供完善的社会福利体系，但本质仍是私人资本主义占据社会经济的主体。苏联自称实行社会主义制度，与北欧类似，但本质不同，政府全面接管并运营企业，这并未改变企业里雇主-雇员的结构，还是少数人说了算，如老板，经理等，管着一大帮打工的。前者占有后者的剩余价值，而不是反过来。这是一种高度结构化的权力布局，这种形态就是资本主义（生产过程中的雇佣关系），不论是私人还是政府来扮演雇主的角色。\n中国是一种新的实验形式，不同于苏联全包，北欧小政府大私营，而是55 开的混合经济模式，有一个权力极大的国家和执政党在上统领，是一种制度创新，创造的成就远超其他体制。就像封建时代的绝对君主制一样，是封建制度最辉煌的成就。中国的成功关键在于探索出了贴合国情的独特资本主义形态，成功实现脱贫，过去的贫困落后，科技不兴，发展停滞给甩进太平洋里，过上新生活。\n当今世界所有前沿技术，几乎都来自中美，欧洲一无所有。现在中美都在转折点上。中国特色混合资本主义既是资本主义最辉煌的巅峰，也将是其绝唱。\n回望四十年发展\n中国把西方工业革命三百年的发展压缩在半个世纪，这个大成绩跟中国文化传统有关， 也跟成功的社会，政治，经济政策有关。中美两国虽都有严重的贫富差距问题，但美国似乎有不愿意解决没能力解决的负债累累问题。他发明一个债务控制法，让底层人来负债，制造现代社会中的债务奴隶。例如教育负债，学生贷款甚至都得还 30 年。\n文化传统\n\n勤俭民风\n艰苦耐劳\n无种姓制度\n长久统一之传统\n\n政府贡献\n\n扫除文盲\n高速基建\n安定的社会\n\n内卷是因为都想当人上人\n当 14 亿人有 10 亿人都想要公平正义的时候，公平正义才可能实现，14 亿人都想骑到别人头上当人上人，那永远是上层倾轧下层，层内内卷。因为除了塔尖，金字塔每层都有人在你上面压着。你相当人上人时，也就接受了有人是你的人上人，也没有把包括自己在内的多数人当人看。\n现代经济里需要的就是把人训练成标准化，可替换的螺丝钉，磨损了可换一个，而不是忍受他在社会机器里吱吱呀呀地摩擦，拖累整个机器的运转。虽听起来残酷，但符合市场发展的规律。市场就是要筛选出效率更高的劳动力，把资源配置到最有效的地方。\n旧螺丝何去何从？你说旧螺丝太多了，机器没那么多空间容纳它们，没有那么多产能为它们考虑，旧螺丝日日夜夜磨损自己推动机器高速运转那么多年，攒下的产能去哪了呢？能不能用来提升一下旧螺丝的生存质量？这样的话人员淘汰也不是什么大问题。人能有脱产时间学习新技能，试错找到新阶段自己擅长的东西。\n总有说法，不能把螺丝的待遇搞得太好，那样大家都会变成懒汉，公社时期就是这样，殊不知这本就是以偏概全的谬论。时代有变化，现代经济最缺的不是生产，是需求，催生海量需求的往往是伟大的技术和理论，而伟大的技术和理论往往是用安全感和无聊感催生的，而不是 996 和低薪。给老百姓给生存基线拉上来，社会福利搞上去，才能最大化激发数亿人的创造力。\n当大多数人感到痛的时候，那现有发展模式一定快走到头了。少子化，老龄化，才是最大的民族风险，而不是异族天灾战争。降低每个个体的生存压力，让每个人有尊严的活着，引导大家平等对待每个同类，不要把占有更多权与钱当成所有人唯一的生命追求。族群的创造力才会被激发，才会有取之不尽的需求与生产，需求与生产的高速转换，又会创造无穷的财富。\n征税再平衡\n富人确实在创造岗位，我们也需要创新者，但没有谁能单靠自己创造巨量财富，我们需要一个持续运作的社会基础设施，英雄的成功也只是创造了部分，所有人的成就都基于前几代人的努力还有纳税资助的研究，所以他们应该缴税，但不是全部上交。\n向富人征税，是为了构建基础设施（机会、医疗保健），就像大学就是一个好投资，常返回超 10 倍的输出。相较而言，美国一切都在私有化，这就是资本主义意识形态失控的表现。资本主义在某些方面是好的，但教育应该是免费的，至少对负担不起学费的阶级免费。\n中国的领导层知道需要科技，所以在这里的大学学费很便宜，中国在这些年中的科技进步离不开理工科教育的大规模投入和供给。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"Python的起源和认识","url":"/Python%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90%E5%92%8C%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86.html","content":"\nPython的创始人是一个荷兰人，Guido van Rossum （吉多·范罗苏姆），89年圣诞节期间，在阿姆斯特丹，guido为了解决在分布式系统Amoeba项目中重复编写C语言工具代码的烦心问题，决心开发一个新的脚本解释程序，把写过的C语言小程序粘贴在一起构成一个新的工具。从89年12月开始编写，91年2月开源发布。91年10月第一版Unicode标准才发布，这给Python埋下了Python2和Python3版本分裂的隐患。\n作者其实并不喜欢语言和大蟒蛇关联上，选中大蟒蛇作为编程语言的名字，取自英文20世纪70年代首播的电视喜剧《蒙提.派森的飞行马戏团》(Monty Python’s Flying Circus)，那是他喜欢的一个马戏团的名字，也符合编程语言名称来源于名人的名字的习惯，如pascal，ada，eiffel\n发明Python的背景\nGuido1982年从阿姆斯特丹大学获得数学和计算机硕士双学位，接触过当时的多种流行语言，Pascal，C，Fortran。大学毕业加入CWI（荷兰教育部和其他研究基金资助的研究中心，国家数学和计算机科学研究中心），在CWI中，他参与了Amoeba项目，为两所机构共同参与开发的基于微内核的分布式系统。\n在这个项目中，Guido发现用C语言开发系统管理程序所花费的时间太长了，且Amoeba是一个全新的底层操作系统实现，导致了和原有的Bourne shell不兼容，在Bourne shell无法执行Amoeba项目之中的一些程序。这些原因让Guido意识到它需要一个能弥合C和shell间鸿沟，更高抽象级别，更加简单的编程语言去完成工作任务。\n为什么选择造轮子发明python，而不是移植其它编程语言？那是因为当初并没有其它编程语言可以完成这些任务。\n\nABC语言\nABC语言是在CWI主导研发的一种交互式，结构化高级语言，旨在替代basic，pascal等语言，用于教学机原型软件设计。Python的创始人在80年代曾在ABC系统开发中工作了数年。\n特点\nABC语言的设计者称其代码量通常为Pascal或C语言的1/4，且具备更强的可读性，其主要特点如下：\n\n只有五种基本数据类型\n不需要变量声明（动态变量）\n明确支持自上而下的编程\n语句嵌套由缩进来表示\n精度，列表，字符串均无限制\n\n未能流行的原因\nABC是由Guido参加设计的一种教学语言，就Guido本人看来，ABC这种语言非常优美强大，是专门为非专业程序员设计的。但ABC语言并不成功，一方面是Guido认为ABC不开放，故Guido决心在Python中避免这一错误，且还想在其中实现在ABC中闪现过但未曾实现的东西。就Guido本人看来，ABC失败的原因是\n\n高级语言为时过早\n平台迁移能力弱，难以添加新功能\n仅仅专注于编程初学者，没有把有经验的编程人员纳入其中\n\n其通过python解决了其一些问题，让拓展模块的编写非常容易，且可在多平台进行运行。可以说，Python是从ABC发展起来的，主要受到了Modula-3（另一种相当优美且强大的语言，为小型团队所设计的）的影响，且结合了Unix shell和C的习惯。\nPython的特色\n小的核心语言+大的标准库\nPython并没有把所有功能特性都嵌入到它的核心代码中。Python 的设计是高度可扩展。由于看到ABC语言的失败，Guido van Rossum认为“小的核心语言”+“大的标准库”才是他需要的\n优雅-明确-简单的哲学\n在语法层面，Python拒绝了强大并复杂的语法（比如Perl的语法），而倾向于一种更简单、更简洁的语法。Python 的哲学拒绝 Perl“语言设计的方法不止一种”，而倾向于”应该有一种——最好只有一种——显而易见的方法”。\n像Perl让人诟病的一点，就是它过于灵活，源代码常常难以阅读，甚至被称作write-only语言。当代码量达到成百上千行的规模，想在Perl中进行维护，就需要大量的纪律约束。而在Python中就没有这个烦恼，显得尤为优美。\n最好是只有一种方法来做一件事”，也因此它和拥有明显个人风格的其他语言很不一样。如果面临多种选择，Python开发者一般会拒绝花俏的语法，而选择明确没有或者很少有歧义的语法。这些准则被称为“Python格言”：\n优美胜于丑陋（Python 以编写优美的代码为目标）明了胜于晦涩（优美的代码应当是明了的，命名规范，风格相似）简洁胜于复杂（优美的代码应当是简洁的，不要有复杂的内部实现）复杂胜于凌乱（如果复杂不可避免，那代码间也不能有难懂的关系，要保持接口简洁）扁平胜于嵌套（优美的代码应当是扁平的，不能有太多的嵌套）间隔胜于紧凑（优美的代码有适当的间隔，不要奢望一行代码解决问题）可读性很重要（优美的代码是可读的）不要包容所有错误，除非你确定需要这样做（精准地捕获异常，不写 except:pass 风格的代码）当存在多种可能，而是尽量找一种，最好是唯一一种明显的解决方案如果你无法向人描述你的方案，那肯定不是一个好方案；反之亦然（方案测评标准）命名空间是一种绝妙的理念，我们应当多加利用（倡导与号召）\n更甚者，Python 的开发人员努力避免过早优化，并拒绝对 CPython 的非关键部分进行补丁，这些补丁将以成本为代价，提供边际增长速度。\nPython与C的不同\nPython大量使用了C语言里的设计，但它是一门动态语言。\n\n不像C语言一样需预先声明变量和指定变量类型，运行时也可以改变变量类型，也内置了大量的数据类型\n为了程序的模块化，引入了包，模块，类，方法和函数\n所有对象都是一等对象，这意味着函数，类，方法，模块和所有其它对象都可以在运行时自由传递，并放入在各种数据结构中去\n\nPython在刚开始时是一个个人独自维护的项目，没任何官方预算和支持，要快速有结果，所以有偷懒的设计哲学，性能也不是他的重要追求目标。对Python的发展也没什么预期，觉得它就跟当时做过的许多失败项目一样，没什么特别突出。\n作者对Python的目标\n\n一门简单直观的语言并与主要竞争者一样强大\n开源，以便任何人都可以为它做贡献\n代码像纯英语那样容易理解\n适用于短期开发的日常任务\n\n变态缩进\nPython使用功能缩进区分编程语句来源于ABC编程语言，虽然不是首创者，但ABC编程语言的作者确实发明了使用冒号将导入语句（lead-in clause）与缩进块 (intented block)分开的方式。\n代码缩进并不是作者要如此[5]，是因为30年前的代码编辑器都不能很好地对代码进行缩进排版。在同事的启发下作者就鼓励程序员自己来对代码进行正确的排版(作者也承认严格要求代码缩进确实有些夸张，改用花括号，也不是不可以)。确保从视觉上对代码的理解与编译器对代码的解析是一致的，这还挺重要。一些代码安全漏洞事故，就是由于代码中语句与程序员实际设想的if-else语法逻辑没有匹配引起的。\n青出于蓝\n作为ABC语言的一种继承及目标客服其失败，从早期的版本开始，Python就提供了一系列内置功能，被称为“Battery Included（内置电池）”，得益于Python开放易拓展的属性，最终拥有极其强大的标准库，是整个社区的贡献，让它从众多编程语言中容易脱颖而出。\nPython最开始的发展其实非常缓慢，也非常小众，因为在计算机资源非常有限的年代，大家都倾向于最大化榨取计算机资源并提升运算效率，而Python显然不是为此而生。\n得到大家的青睐，主要是在90年代末期，很多科学家开始进行科学计算时，就像Python作者一样用Python来作为胶水语言，调用原来由fortran或C++编写的代码。对于这些科学家来说，Python是非常顺手的工具。\n\n\n对初学者非常友好。Python 的语法简单直观，几乎就像是用英语写的，学习曲线平缓\n\n\n在数据科学、机器学习和人工智能领域提供了众多包，这些包或者是被科学家用于数据分析建模，或者被广泛部署在工业界的生产系统，经受了学术圈和工业界的检验。\n\n\n\n\n2018年guido在和Python社区斗争多年以后，选择退出独裁模式，2019年建立了委员会来管理python的走向，此后python就发展的越来越好\n作者的程序哲学\n底层概念与复杂体系\n我们不能把计算机当作是一个魔法盒子，而要去了解它是如何运作的。这样虽然不一定能成为最厉害的程序员，但会比那些完全不懂基本概念的程序员更了解软件和计算机的弱点和约束，从而更好地运用各种软件工具，避免愚蠢的错误。\n软件实际上是有多层结构组成的，这有点像生物的进化，一方面DNA编码方式已经有10亿年没有发生变化了，就像计算机体系中的比特，字节，指针和内存一样（在软件当中其实最终都是指针，内存和计算，了解这些最底层概念非常重要），水藻化石中发现的远古细胞跟现代的细胞，没有太大的形态变化，不同类的多细胞可组成不同的器官，各种不同的器官最终又组成了人类，人类自己又构成了人类社会。软件也像这样，软件领域里最重要的事情就是通过网络把计算机都联系在了一起，从而能基于简单的细小结构构建出多层次的大型复杂体系，在简单中蕴含着高层级的结构，这里面具有超乎想象的灵活性和可能性。\n\n**Guido：**我认为对编程来说真正酷的事情，是将新软件构建于先前软件的基础之上，现在的程序员编写代码可以借鉴前人的代码。\n\n开放与合作\nGuido自认为自己不是全能型的程序员，所以他只负责制订框架。如果问题太复杂，他会选择绕过去，也就是cut the corner。这些问题最终由社区中的其他人解决。社区中的人才是异常丰富的，就连创建网站，筹集基金这样与开发稍远的事情，也有人乐意于处理。如今的项目开发越来越复杂，越来越庞大，合作以及开放的心态成为项目最终成功的关键\n最爱Pascal的优雅\n其最早是1974与1975年在阿姆斯特丹开始学习编程。学的第一门语言是 ALGOL 60，还学过一些别的语言，但他最爱的是 Pascal，它是一门非常优雅的语言[5]。在这个过程中，其逐渐了解一门编程语言应有的特性，以及它们在处理具体问题时各自的特点。例如，在 ALGOL 60 里是没有字符串类型的，如果想定义一个标识符就必须用一种魔法一般的方式来处理字符串，这种魔法在不同的输入硬件上的施展方式还不一样——要知道当时是通过穿孔卡片来输入代码的，每一种卡片机都是不同的。而 Pascal 在处理字符串上也很有一套，他认为 Pascal 非常优雅，能帮程序员高效率编程。\n目标感与当下主义者\n有些人非常有驱动力，目标明确，访谈中Python作者就提到盖茨及一个摇滚乐手，做事非常有计划，有些人则没有雄心勃勃的创业理想或商业目标，如Unix创造者之一也是贝尔实验室花了一番功夫才说服加入，Python之父在年轻时也不知道自己将要干什么，更关注当下，而不是未来主义者。\n教堂与集市\n微软就像大教堂，开源则像集市？作者在微软工作过一段时间，他认为其实大公司不止有一个风格，内部实际上还有众多不同的部落，彼此有不同的目标及做事方式，有的人不怎么关心软件只关心钱，有的相反，有的不关心使用软件的人，还有人关心使用软件的人及软件如何帮助这些人，你可以找到属于自己的部落。\n创造性还无银弹\n人的大脑可能才是软件开发效率的天花板，而不是屏幕上能显示多少行代码、或者编译器能跑得多快。新出现的 GitHub Copilot，一用就喜欢上了它，它太棒了，但其也不认为这是提升代码编写效率的银弹——因为它自动生成了 10 行代码，你还得花时间去确认这 10 行代码所做的事情确实就是你想要的。\nPython作者想起来以前听过一个笑话，在MS-DOS年代，有个外行项目经理领导一个项目，要交付一百来个用户界面的应用，期限是6个星期，到了第三个星期，他们还没生成一个用户界面，这个项目经理非常焦虑，对他来说团队生产效率就是0！然而程序员却说，他们正在构建一个工具，这个工具会在最后两天自动生成这100多个用户界面。这大概是所有程序员都梦寐以求的事情，事实上他当初创建Python时也是这么想的，他通过Python把原来C语言写的小程序都粘连在一起，很快完成了任务。这说明他非常在意创造性与效率提升。\n移动设备上Python不太成功\n移动操作系统，套接字和信号行为和Unix有所不同，且禁止许多syscall，子进程使用受限。\nGuido说：CPython（官方的Python解释器）已有30年的历史了，它最初是为了工作站，台式机和服务器环境诞生的，但那些没法让CPython能在移动设备上运行的人们发现，Python消耗了太多的资源。\n他又补充说到：与期待中在移动操作系统运行的情况相比，Python又大又慢，运行Python编写的应用会迅速消耗电池电量和内存。\n因为Python应用需要自己的运行环境副本，意味着Python需缩小规模以顺利运行在移动设备，也有人建议过创建一个简化内核版本的Python以解决该问题。\n\n当时BeeWare联合创始人Russell Keith-Magee有一种Python的”存在恐慌“：当iPad成为主流，笔记本电脑不过是细分设备时，Python会发生什么？\n但AI世代的降临又让它飞上了天。\n\nPython为什么这么慢？\nPython速度真的是相当慢。最简单的整数循环耗时是未优化C程序的近30倍\n\n\nPython编译器还真是很少进行优化，比如明显的对i反复LOAD_FAST和STORE_FAST，可以改为一直在栈上操作。然而在Python里尝试做这种优化，和把基于栈的指令集改成基于寄存器一样，是没有关注到重点。\n\n\n如果是基于寄存器的指令集，那么最好情况下所有LOAD_FAST, LOAD_CONST, STORE_FAST指令可以去掉，指令数由9条减少到4条，看起来是很大的进步。然而“数指令数估计时间”这种思路并不适用于Python VM。\n\n\n所有指令都没有类型，或者说都是“抽象”操作。这与JVM形成了鲜明对比：JVM内置了多种基本类型，并且指令都指定了类型，比如iload,iadd。为了效率，Java甚至把这些类型在语言层面暴露出来，哪怕基本类型和对象类型语义不一致给初学者带来了困惑。\n\n\n如果把基于栈的虚拟机改为基于寄存器，确定能省掉的是TARGET和FAST_DISPATCH这种纯解释开销和POP_TOP/ROT_THREE这种栈操作指令，但是又要增加寄存器间复制的指令。核心并不是基于寄存器还是基于栈，也不是只要指令少就快。\n\n\n前面说了，Python字节码都是抽象的，所以INPLACE_ADD并不知道操作数能不能作inplace（不产生新对象）的加法，所以binary_iop1要去判断操作数是否支持。恰好int因为是immutable type，不支持inplace操作（nb_inplace_add=NULL），那么就要用普通的加法（nb_add）。\n\n\n由于不能inplace，每次n+=1要new一个新的int对象，还要free掉原来的对象。\n\n\n另外还要处理一大堆情况，比如加法既可以由左操作数定义也可以由右操作数定义；如果两边都定义了，而一个是另一个的子类，还要优先用子类的方法。\n\n\n和前面一样，最终实际干活的函数是由对象类型动态决定的。在我们的例子里对象是int，所以调用了long_add。由于int支持任意精度整数，long_add实现很长；\n\n\n“实际干活”的指令最后会用DISPATCH而不是FAST_DISPATCH，区别是前者会检查是否需要释放GIL给别的线程。这里需要原子地读一个标志，所以比FAST_DISPATCH慢不少。LOAD/STORE等指令用FAST_DISPATCH的原因是 1) 它们总是围绕着实际干活的指令，没必要这么频繁地检查 2) 实际干活的指令由于会调用用户代码，执行时间可以任意长，所以如果每几条指令才检查一次标志，线程切换延迟可能会很大；而LOAD等指令执行时间比较短，不检查标志也不会给线程切换带来很大延迟。\n\n\n所以Python为什么慢？一个整数加法，用C就是一条机器指令，Lua大概十几行C代码，而Python需要经过近百行C代码。这些代码都干啥了？\n\nLua VM的指令集虽然也是抽象的，但对应的数据类型是确定的几种，因此不像Python对所有指令都要dynamic dispatch。\nPython的加法语义设计得非常灵活，可以定义在左操作数/右操作数/两边同时定义… 进一步增加了dynamic dispatch的逻辑。\nPython的int没有使用机器native整型，而是自己定义的任意精度整型格式。因此即使数据范围可以被native整型支持，整数运算逻辑仍然较复杂。\n\n实际上不只是整数运算，作为面向对象语言最核心的“调用方法”和“访问对象自身属性”两个操作，Python也是非常慢。\n性能好的语言\n总的来说，Python性能为什么这么差？性能好的语言大体分两类：\n\n被设计成高性能。如C，Java。这类语言在设计之初就把性能放在优先位置，愿意为之作各种牺牲，比如前面提到的，Java作为面向对象语言而为基本类型搞特殊规则；而后面加新功能时，往往首先问的也是这是否会使现有程序变慢。\n设计时不重视性能，后期被强烈的性能需求和砸钱搞成高性能。如Javascript。\n\n而对Python设计者来说，有太多因素排在性能之前：易学，灵活性（比如加法的各种定义方法），概念简单（比如把int/long合并成一个任意精度整数类型）。即使有人愿意砸钱，设计者也不见得配合你，比如提出各种与性能优化相悖的向后兼容要求…\nPython3对Python2的抛弃\n为了修复缺陷，更好地适应新环境，让Python更有生命力，Python社区做了一个非常有决断的动作，推出Python 3，不向后兼容。Python 3 开发的重点是清理代码库并删除冗余，清晰地表明只能用一种方式来执行给定的任务。\n\n语法差异：Python2在语法上更倾向于简单明了，但某些设计可能会引起混淆，Python3的语法更加一致和清晰\n标准库改进：3对异步IO的支持，更好的日期和时间库等\n性能改进：性能上3开展了很多优化，某些功能执行效率更高\n字符串和字节处理：Python2字符串类型不区分Unicode和字节字符串，在处理非ASCII字符文本时可能造成混淆，Python3所有字符串都是Unicode，字符串和字节串有明确区分\n改进的编程功能：函数注解，类型提示，先进的异步编程等，更易读更易维护\n\n引用\n1.博客园 Python的起源 ↩2.知乎 Python早期设计与开发：从ABC到Python ↩3.刘缙 Lua 的速度为什么比 Python 快？ ↩4.36Kr Python 之父：移动设备中的 Python 应用“又大又慢” ↩5.36kr 对话Python之父：人类大脑才是软件开发效率的天花板 ↩6.标点符 认识Python：起源与发展 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"RPA-POC观察","url":"/RPA-POC%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F.html","content":"\nPOC\n目标\n\n提供技术可行性验证，展示课预估的商业价值\n\n技术：识别关键的技术壁垒，验证后续的扩展性\n商业：是否可以得到预期的回报\nProposal三种方案，一种是BP（BluePrism），一种是AA（AutomationAnywhere），AA和BP都是基于.net的，会.net比较好\n另一个是UIPATH，罗马尼亚的一家公司创造出来的，进行广泛的授权合作，也有一定的跟随者。\nPOC过程\n1.业务案例（访谈）-- &gt; 2.RPA场景提取（机会识别）–&gt; 3. 搭建原型（实施开发）–&gt; 4.评估（原型验证）–&gt; 5.试点运行（小规模部署/生产化）\n本文的过程在1~3环节，以期筛选出合适的合作商\n本身是成本优化项目，成本考量同样需关注\n基本问题：使用率如何定义？机器人设备的部署量如何评估？普遍现状：一个终端同时在运行一个机器人任务\nPOC感受\n\n正所谓人靠衣装，佛靠金装。体会到了职场的场面的重要性，机会降临给准备充分的人\n流程及流程输出物的标准化\n高强度，一点不比系统研发轻松\n\n合作商过程记录\n\nISearch\nQ：一定要虚拟化终端？A：不要求Q：任务的部署下发是指定终端，还是全终端有全部的待运行任务Q：多终端的中间结果互通整合，如何处理？A：支持在服务端的数据打通Q：申请个单独的机器人账号最好Q：设计器的软件如何安装？A：非标准软件，可以分Set控制配置不同的服务端Q：如何分开各部门的权限？A：回复待确认是否有任务资源的编辑访问控制基于UIPATH\n上海的公司，国内做RPA比较早，其最大优势是有一些既有的国内客户，如银行，已有实施案例。曾经一度是重点考察对象，成本优势应该也是有的。\n安永\n基于UIPATHQ：推荐的开发语言是什么？对VB的支持是最好的，其余几种语言还不确定支持完备度如何Q：UIPATH的Studio对任务的配置，没有中间层的调配管理，全量推送到机器人终端。有Server的三层方案在中华区还没有应用案例碰到的问题，就是个性化系统的操作识别有些问题，但UIPATH有较好的扩展性，还要考虑是否与终端软件的防护有无冲突。\n远程参会，两轮对口人，完成讲解。从形式上就让甲方觉得不够重视，陪跑是必然的\nIBM\n来的阵仗第二大，从售前，带队领导，到工程师代表一应俱全。准备全面，重点由工程师代表方案讲解发言\n讲述方法论比较成熟，包括ROI的模板分析方法，维度4象限（需求清晰度/业务重复度）划分，结合ROI分析。异常处理机制，显出功力\n\n重试\n邮件告警\n异常截图\n异常日志\n\n支持BP, AA两套方案，优推BP，也显出他们人员配置完备。\nQ：现有的模块库已经完备？反馈说已经有Q：拆分比较细的机器人时，如何建议部署量\n富璟科技\n基于AA业务咨询能力：数字化的劳动力，处理重复的工作（有点吹大--人工智能，100%准确率，投资回报精确计算）技术难点的识别上，显出整体人员的研发功力距离IBM有较大的差距（VBA操作Excel，处理邮件）但强调了排班的安排，倒是说的对，其余厂家没多强调团队的培养，确实重要，仅有这家提了\n深圳的单位，来了两个人，研发总监和一个开发，因为对比大厂没有优势，大概率陪跑角色，事实证明确实陪跑\n毕马威（KPMG）\n来的人就几个，阵仗不大，评审人反馈过往的合作也一直比较实在老实，但后来报价很机械（反向佐证？）\n德勤\n来的售前阵仗最大，从香港跑过来一批合伙人大佬，装束精致，给招标方一种非常高规格的感觉，大佬们不懂技术，但话讲的漂亮\n1000台机器人--UIPATH的应用，在日本的银行客户2018年的新版本支持一个并发license模型好像他们也是UIPATH的东亚区核心代理","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"Serverless简解","url":"/Serverless.html","content":"\n一句话Fancy概念\n将云看作一台计算机\n\nIAAS是硬件\n容器编排是操作系统\nServerless是应用的运行时\n\n\n理解这个运行时，你可以将其看作SaaS，也可以看作PaaS，BaaS（backend as a service）, 导致现在在往Faas方向在演进\n\nCloudNative\n充分利用云平台各种功能和服务所设计的应用程序（自建自研减少）\nServerless产品形态早已有之\n\nAmazon-S3（2006），即为serverless形态的存储服务，只需简单的API就可以实现海量数据可靠存储。用户毋需关心数据如何被分片存储到不同的服务器以实现负载均衡，也毋需考虑如何做到在服务器宕机或交换机故障时保证数据的高可靠和高可用\n\nS3是BaaS的体现\n\n2015概念加速\n自2015年Amazon正式商用Lambda后变得流行了，背后原因体现的是云产品体系一直在Serverless化\n\n对多数用户来说，最重要的是解决业务问题，若全托管的服务能带来更好的性能，更好的稳定性，更少的运维代价，why not？\n技术层面，serverless无特别难解的题，都是可攻克的。最难的还是心智教育，标准化和生态建设（技术严谨并非一蹴而就，如高级语言的市占率，软件工程的发展也是经过长时间的积累）\n与很多新兴技术一样，都经历了开发者幻想破灭的低谷。计算形态的变动对于开发者的习惯挑战较大，在工具链，编程模型，应用架构上，都需要开发者转换思路，不过这些问题都在不断被解决\n\nServerless与微服务的异同\n\n任何技术都有优劣，适合和不适合。例如微服务有很多优点，但要想落地好，需要在应用运行基础设施，工具链，可观测上有完善的配套支撑。\n\n微服务是一种架构概念，Serverless可看作是承载应用运行的基础设施\n\n松耦合，细粒度开发和发布边界，更敏捷的应用发布频度\n企业应用从单体架构到服务化，再到更细粒度的微服务化\n微服务构建应用，可运行在Serverless平台上，也可以运行在VM或容器平台上，二者概念上正交\n\nServerLess带来了什么不同\n\n结合云能力，弹性，轻量，端对端集成，与微服务很合拍\n实践推动微服务往一个更轻量的研发模式发展 – 应用函数化，按需加载 (FaaS)\n引领云原生下一个十年的发展潮流\n\nServerless四大特性\n\nNo Server Management（无需管理服务器）\nPay-for-value Service（按价值付费）\nContinuous Scaling（能自动伸缩）\nBuilt-in Fault Tolerance（内置高可用和容错能力）\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["云原生"]},{"title":"Tittytainment-奶头乐","url":"/Tittytainment.html","content":"\n奶头乐大家都知道了，网上一搜一大堆，此文仅仅是录下一套不那么复杂的体系化表达。\n奶头乐\n\n&quot;奶头乐&quot;理论（Tittytainment） 由2017年刚去世的美国战略大师布热津斯基【曾任吉米-卡特总统的国家安全顾问】在20多年前提出。\n\n资本主义天然会造成严重的贫富分化，而全球化进一步加速了全球范围内的贫富分化，这使得二八现象更加严重，20%的人掌握80%的资源，掌握人类社会各领域的话语权，而高达80%的人口会被&quot;边缘化&quot;。过去通过社保制度，工人持股等方式改良的资本主义制度也无法对抗广大底层民众的不满情绪，罢工，抗议，甚至革命会再次发生。\n解除边缘人不满情绪的办法只有一个，就是在他们嘴中塞一个“奶嘴”，让他们以为自己过得很充实，很幸福。\n\n萌发-人类清除计划背后\n1995年费尔蒙特饭店会议讨论全球化及如何引导人类走向21世纪等重大问题，与会者以“崭新的文明”，“后工业时代”等宣传术语把未来简化成两个概念：20比80，靠喂奶生活。\n具体意思是，仅靠全球20%的人（外加1%-2%的丰厚遗产继承人）就足以维持世界经济的繁荣，剩余80%将被边缘化，避免这80%的人的问题，提出两种解决方案，一是奶头乐，二是逐步设法用高技术手段消灭他们（近些年的生物战不了解是不是清除计划的一部分）。\n奶嘴的两种形式\n奶嘴的形式有两种：\n\n一种是发泄性娱乐，比如开放色情业，博彩业，鼓励暴力网络游戏，鼓动网络口水战；\n一种是满足性游戏，比如拍摄大量不切实际的肥皂剧和偶像剧，大量报道明星丑闻，播放很多虚假的真人秀等大众娱乐节目。\n\n把这些令人很轻松就可以沉迷其中的娱乐感官体验疯狂堆砌在边缘人面前，占据他们的业余时间，就算白天干活辛苦，收入微薄，受到剥削和不公平待遇，而且没有向上跃迁的阶层通道，他们也会在不知不觉中丧生独立思考的能力，这时，只要给他们一份能填饱肚子的工作，他们便会沉浸在“快乐”中。\n\n为何总有霸道总裁爱前台小妹这类节目给你看，因为穷人喜欢看，草根女主角才有时间看这种剧情，而这类节目受众里根本没霸道总裁。媒体的结果就是让基数最大的群体开心，话题越低越底层，共鸣就越多，收视率就越好。\n当前中国社会也进入娱乐至死的状态，人们对自己的处境又处在了百年前鲁迅批判的那种国民性上，麻木漠然：一个人走在街上，吐了一口痰就会有人上来看，两个，三个然后围成一群，最后轰然散去。这是中国旧社会人们的思维状态，习惯以“看客”的身份去对待周遭的世界，主体性丧失。当前社会也体现出主体性丧失的特点，或者说从未被完整构建过，毕竟当前时代沉渣泛起，从高效率的角度民可使由之，不可使知之。真正关切到每个人自身的社会议题总是被一带而过，而各路与自己毫不相干的人的家长里短总能频频冲上热榜。别人的瓜总是比自己的瓜吃起来要美味，人群是多么的像羊群。也有少部分清楚的人选择摆烂，摆出一幅犬儒的姿态，『社会病了，吃药的却是我们，不陪你们玩了』。\n游戏越反越多\n现今经常被家长抱怨的网络游戏，国家从来没有真正意义上想解决过，因为网络游戏本身就是国家的一套工具。\n也别全信游戏产业利益集团的说辞。什么“网游本身并不让人沉迷，沉迷的本质是家长关怀的缺位” 这种 政治正确的假话，让人沉迷的就是从业者设计的“好玩”，专业设局诱捕你大脑欣快感分泌。这跟反禁枪的人说“杀人的不是枪，是人”一样在玩逻辑诡辩。\n世界的真相就是：禁枪的地方就是比不禁枪的地方安全。\n游戏数据\n根据DFC Intelligence在2022年发布的《全球游戏用户市场概览》中，总结了全球范围内已有37亿游戏用户，按当年全球人口80亿的联合国数据看，已近一半的人在玩游戏。\n不过只有10%的玩家能称为核心玩家，这批用户大概3亿，是硬件驱动型用户，会为了玩游戏购买游戏主机，或配置高性能的电脑。\n相比之下，移动游戏的玩家群体庞大的多，更能代表全球玩家数量。那么，让只玩手机游戏的用户升级到更大屏幕的设备就是行业人士瞄准的重要机会，只是并不容易。\n游戏成瘾的原因和对策？\n玩游戏不动脑子？玩游戏可以躺平？很多游戏很费脑子也费力的。为啥孩子愿意动脑子而做数学题不动脑子呢？\n道理很简单，叫即时反馈，马上给你一个爽感快感。你通不过这一关不要紧的，再来重来再来重来，它永远都是鼓励你。你不会见过哪个游戏在里面骂你吧。\n学习考试就有反面的问题，学了几个月成绩没提升，老师批评你，家长批评你，开始制造各种焦虑，小孩脑子都坏了。当一个人持续做事做了半天没任何效果，周围都是在批评你的时候，你可能会喜欢这个东西么。\n长期提分提不了，孩子很容易厌学，所以要正视这个问题。另外一定要学会说话好听一点，要学会鼓励孩子让他看到自己的进步，哪怕分数没有进步，他的努力你是看见的，不是老师批评指责，否则他绝对是厌学。\n游戏这个事还是预防为主，立规矩为上，不要妥协。吸毒成瘾了你说该戒毒，好不好戒，你自己说呢。另外体育也是一种游戏，代替电子游戏也是一个选择。\n风潮变化\n\n\n奶头乐战略出来后，社会确实对不正统的通俗文化，低级无聊与摧毁心智的污染性文化变得十分宽容，商人政客等精英似乎也乐见其成了，或者说如获至宝。\n\n\n绝大多数平民也乐此不疲，追捧不已，就像那些深陷毒瘾的人对鸦片提供者往往感激得痛哭流涕一样，反而成为这一风潮最有力的推动者和捍卫者。\n\n\n社会稳定三大策略\n年轻人都负债，社会才会稳定。西方社会稳定最成功的三个手段：\n\n性自由\n成功学\n消费主义\n\n三个策略，年轻人只要中一个，就必须花费大把大把的银子，大概率会背负负债，努力工作。消费主义不消说，买房买车买奢侈品，贷款消费，媒体告诉你这都是刚需。要是三策略都击中你，你又是普通人，是得扛着比牛毛还多的负债奋力向前了。\n随着种花家越来越现代化，也同样学习到这些策略。有文章说有4亿老百姓身背大量负债，你信不信金融资本家正在琢磨的是把剩下的10亿也狠劲榨一榨，最好是榨干（不榨社会总产出也无法快速扩大）。\n结语\n\n\n提高他们的欲望，降低他们的收入，然后借钱给他们，让他们忙到停不下来，又不至于崩溃，制造娱乐和游戏用奶嘴安慰他们\n\n\n真要没人玩王者荣耀了，你出头只会更难。你有多强烈的延迟满足的反人性特质？奋斗是个慢跑，游戏马上享受不等一秒\n\n\n教育从来问题多多，从来没有得到根本的解决，因为教育不等于教育制度，教育是个体的事情，教育制度的根本目的是维系社会稳定\n\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"Yarn资源调度策略","url":"/Yarn%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5.html","content":"\n开宗明义\nYARN 资源调度器是直接从MR基础上修改而来，它提供了三种可用资源调度器，分别是\n\n\nFIFO Scheduler\n\n\nYahoo!的Capacity Scheduler\n\n\nFackbook 的 Fair Scheduler\n\n\n原理和细节基本上与MR的三种调度器一致。都是层级队列方式组织资源的\n\n如此这般，符合公司或部门组织架构，有利于资源在不同资源间分配和共享，进而提高集群资源利用率\n\n调度器详解\n\nFIFO Scheduler\nHadoop设计之初提供的一个最简单的调度机制： 即先来先服务。所有应用程序被统一提交到一个队里中，Hadoop按照提交顺序依次运行这些作业。只有等先来的应用程序资源满足后，再开始为下一个应用程序进行调度运行和分配资源。\n优点：原理和实现简单，也不需要任何单独的配置\n缺点：\n\n无法提供QoS，只能对所有的任务按照同一优先级处理\n无法适应多租户资源管理。先来的大应用程序把集群资源占满，导致其他用户的程序无法得到及时执行\n应用程序并发运行程度低\n\nCapacity Scheduler\nYahoo!开发的多用户调度器，以队列为单位划分资源，配置文件为conf/capacity-scheduler.xml\n\n每个队列可设定一定比例的资源最低保证和使用上限\n每个用户也可设置一定的资源使用上限，以防资源滥用\n支持资源共享，将队列剩余资源共享给其他队列使用\n\n容量保证\n管理员为每个队列设置资源最低保证（capacity）和资源使用上限（maximum-capacity，默认100%）\n所有提交到该队列的应用程序共享这个队列中的资源\n弹性调度\n队列中的资源有剩余或者空闲，可以暂时共享给那些需要资源的队列+非强制回收。提高系统资源利用率。（当队列有执行空间）\n多租户管理\n支持多用户共享集群资源和多应用程序同时运行。且可对每个用户可使用资源量（user-limit-factor）设置上限\n安全隔离\n每个队列设置严格的ACL列表（acl_submit_applications），用以限制可以用户或者用户组可以在该队列提交应用程序，实现计算资源隔离\nFair Scheduler\nFacebook开发的多用户调度器，公平不仅可以在队列中的应用体现，也可以在多个队列之间工作。\n举个栗子\n两个用户A和B，各拥有一个队列，都设置容量最小为集群的一半，最大为全部集群资源。当A启动一个job而B没有任务时，A会获得全部集群资源；当B启动一个job后，A的job会继续运行，不过一会儿之后两个任务会各自获得一半的集群资源。\n此时B再启动第二个job并且其它job还在运行，则它将会和B的第一个job共享B这个队列的资源，也就是B的两个job会用于四分之一的集群资源。而A的job仍然用于集群一半的资源，结果就是资源最终在两个用户之间平等的共享。\n与Capacity Scheduler不同之处\n支持资源抢占\n队列空闲资源被共享给其他队列后，如果再提交用户程序，需要计算资源，调度器需要为它回收资源。\n为了尽可能降低不必要的计算浪费，调度器采用了先等待再强制回收的策略。如果等待一段时间后尚有未归还的资源，则会进行资源抢占：从超额使用资源的队列中杀死一部分任务，进而释放资源。\n自定义负载均衡\n在Fair Scheduler尽可能把任务均匀分配到各个节点之外，你也可以根据自己的需求设计负载均衡机制\n资源公平共享\nFair策略是一种基于最大最小公平算法（内存资源使用率比率）实现的资源多路复用方式，默认情况下，每个队列内部采用该方式分配资源。\n有一个权重属性（这个权重就是对公平的定义），并把这个属性作为公平调度的依据。当调度器分配集群40:60资源给两个队列A和B时便视作公平（40和60分别替换成2和3，效果也是一样的）。如果队列没有设置权重则会被平均分配。\n与此同时，每个队列可单独设置调度策略（FIFO、Fair或DRF）\n\n默认调度算法的考量因子是memory，但是也可以也可以设置DRF(Dominant Resource Fairness)，会考虑mem和vcore的资源\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"万元美金时代","url":"/%E4%B8%87%E5%85%83%E7%BE%8E%E9%87%91%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3.html","content":"\nGDP，衡量的是一个国家的经济总量；人均GDP评价的是一个国家的富裕程度。在经济学界，人们更多地拿人均GDP作为划分经济发展阶段的重要指标，当然它局限性很明显，过于简单，未体现收入分配差异。两个国家的人均 GDP 可能相似，但因为分配方式的不同，实际收入可能差距甚大。\n\n从 1970 年开始，人均 GDP 的槛经常被提起，一开始是 3000 美元，后来韩国、台湾超过 5000 美元，中国把目标定在了 10000 美元。\n\n现今到了2w美元，可等于初等发达国家，[2.5~4)可称为中等发达国家（地区）。在2020年北上的人均GDP已经2.4w和2.3w美金，可称中等发达地区水平。\n\n其实国内最高的两位城市代表分别是克拉玛依和鄂尔多斯（能源开采和加工，附加值高用工要求不高，人口规模也不大），他们比北上更高，无锡也比北京高。人均GDP与发达程度的关联性偏小，人均是用总人口计算的，所以老龄化程度影响很大，老人占比越高，人均GDP越低，用就业人口计算看上去更合理，但也不合情理\n\n在1978年美国人均GDP超过1w美元的时候，我国人均GDP差不多是150美元，差距非常明显。2003年中国人均GDP超过1000美元。消费结构向发展型、享受型升级，过去的奢侈品将转化为居民的必需品。2003年以来，汽车等消费热点的日益形成，只不过是这一变化的序幕。消费结构的升级，带动的将是投资结构和生产结构的变化。住房、汽车、电子通信等高成长产业群，成为产业升级和经济增长的主要动力。\n万元美金的界限感\n一些国家和地区在人均 GDP 超过 10000 美元时社会形态发生了或大、或小的变化，当然对于身处期间的人来说，跃过一个数字并没什么可见的影响。工作在继续、生活在继续、问题也在继续。受通货膨胀影响，其实按今天的币值计算，这个门槛都在 10000 美元左右。\n\n各国 GDP 数值来自世界银行和经济史学家 Angus Maddison 的统计数据，再加以通胀换算[1]\n\n2019年，按官方统计数字，中国人均GDP跨国万元美金关口。\n\n\n美国第一次人均 GDP 达到 10000 美元发生在 1913 年，当时纽约华尔街对伦敦国际股票市场的撼动已然显现，女性上街游行，争取投票权。人们开始在报纸上玩填字游戏，消费主义的气氛浓厚，通过邮购手册，西尔斯把产品卖到全国各地，创造了标准化的美国消费，也涵括了农村的消费者。和后来的郊区化不同，这一时期美国人口的流动是朝向城市的。好莱坞诞生，摩天大楼天际线在不断刷新，制造业中也在刷新着效率。\n\n\n\n1933年，英国。1920 年代，电动吸尘器、洗衣机、电热炉都已经出现。但全球只有在美国，普通人才能用得起电——到 1925 年，一半美国家庭用上了电，当时英国没有成规模的电力公司，5 个灯泡一天就要烧掉普通人一个月的工资，所以只有6%。英国国家电网1933年建成，连接122座发电站，到1938 年，已经有 900 万户英国家庭用上了电\n\n\n1959年，德国。德国的经济极速增长，被认为是一个经济奇迹（Wirtschaftswunder）。到 1959 年，德国人均 GDP 首次超过 10000 美元（以 2018 年币值计算），出口商品首次超过英国、达到法国两倍。当年，一级方程式大奖赛在西柏林举办。西柏林被东德包围，进出要靠飞机，当地赛队没钱频繁飞去西边参加比赛，更多是组织赛事邀请各国运动员参加。德国人热爱赛车，也将整个国家的高速公路变成赛道。当年巴伐利亚发动机厂被匡特家族控股，筹备造车，作为纳粹金主之一战后很长一段时间BMW不允许生产汽车，59年股东大会被提议并入奔驰，看似已无出路。当年博朗TP1 便携式收音机也被设计出来，自然而不多余。\n\n\n1962，日本，身处举办1964奥运会的准备期，之前比埃菲尔铁塔更高的东京塔已经建成，还在建新干线，迎接1970 年大阪世界博览会。210km/h 的时速是 1963 年世界的最高水准。丰田造出自己的“大众车”。神龛佛坛本来的位置被电视机取代，《铁臂阿童木》电视动画出现，创下了全日本平均 30% 的收视率，开始击退进口节目。即食包装咖喱开始出现，进一步解放主妇。不按通胀平价计算美国人均GDP从1w到2w，用了9年，日本仅花了6年，可见其当时有多猛。\n\n\n1970年，苏联，太空竞赛才发了两个月球探测器，有一个还是首个遥控月球车。探测器也着陆在了金星表面\n\n\n1976年，香港，时髦的打扮、快餐文化、娱乐业和自我身份的焦虑在那几年特别流行，除了财富增长，十岁到十九岁的组别在香港人口中最多也是因素，使得整个香港由青少年文化主导。电影院此时被“感官电影”占领，暴力和艳情片最具票房号召力。其余的是讲究道义、气节的武侠片。此时香港已经开了 4 家麦当劳，1977 年，麦当劳在香港总计卖出了超过 100 万个汉堡。从港岛到九龙，需要搭乘渡海小轮和电船，码头旁总是停满接驳车。海底隧道在 1972 年开通，稍稍缓和了香港的交通。1970 年代，港岛市中心每 25 秒就有一班叮叮车，香港地铁在 1975 年 11 月动工，以应对人口暴增和交通的需要。也开始筹备更多公屋。\n\n\n1987年，台湾。7.15日，台湾正式解除延续 38 年又 56 天的戒严。1987 年年底，台湾解除了对大陆的“三不”禁令，并解除外汇管制，允许企业对外投资。次年，郭台铭从山西晋城老家返程时，途径深圳，向来擅长和本地官员打交道的郭台铭打算在深圳宝安区的西乡建工厂，这里的平均工人工资只有 223 元。在台湾，1987 年电子零组件制造业的职工平均月收入是 14094 新台币。人力成本上涨得厉害，制造业转移不可避免。在将工厂搬到大陆之前，泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印尼已经成为劳动力的重要来源。罗大佑去了香港。过去几年，罗大佑在台湾“和审查制度周旋久矣，苦矣”。1/6的歌送审不过，每张唱片平均有两首歌送审不过。\n\n\n2004，巴西。国家更富，个人交税更多了，巴西经济从国家和从个人角度看，是完全不同的两个东西。巴西人要把每年 42% 的薪水交给政府，买烟的话交 72%、买啤酒交 56%、买车交 44%，由于税率过高，按咨询机构麦肯锡的说法，逃税是巴西的一种生活方式。低效也体现在其它地方，2004 年巴西企业创建需要 15 道程序，平均需要耗时 152 天。比较而言，同期美国只需要 5 道程序，耗时 4 天；韩国 12 道程序，耗时 33 天；同一地区的智利也不过是 10 道程序和 28 天。在巴西几乎看不到奔驰、宝马、奥迪这些豪华汽车品牌。由于严格的贸易保护政策，进口车会被课以重税。收入分配的不平衡直接体现在巴西人的生活感受上。2004 年大概 33% 的巴西人每天生活费不到 2 美元，约有 45％ 的人营养不良。\n\n\n万元美金世代人群趋势\n\n中国2019年进入，从绝对数值上美国1978年进入\n\n\n中产阶层物质需求基本满足，开始追求自我实现和发展\n\n生存性消费（衣食住行）转向发展性消费（教育，医保，美容，旅游）\n\n\n颜值经济（爱美）\n\n美容美发美甲美牙\n健身\n\n\n老龄化（怕死）：各种医疗护理类缺口巨大，包括幼托\n\n普通人逆袭的机会\n甚至于普通毕业生也能进三甲医院的康复科\n\n\n孤独\n\n心理咨询\n宠物医生\n\n\n\n城市化趋势\n\n人均GDP和城市化率还将继续上升\n北上广深经济密度（每平方公里的产值）离世界标杆还很有差距，由人口规模支撑\n\n四大一线2-3亿美金，新加坡首尔5亿，东京7亿，纽约10亿\n\n\n\n城市马太\n磁铁城市（火焰）\n\n网络人口：移动手机总数\n更佳解释用水用电生活垃圾指标\n\n\n北上广深\n成都：网络人口比常住人口多1000w\n杭州\n东南沿海\n长三角地区\n\n抽离城市（海水）\n\n天津\n\n第二产业比重43%，没有支柱服务业\n用脚投票去服务业更发达，生产效率更高的周边火焰之城\n\n\n中部\n苏北\n鲁南\n西部地区\n\n城市的胜利\n\n规模、规模、规模：财富的&quot;规模溢价&quot;\n北上广深以全国1/14人口，吸纳全国餐饮1/4的就业\n\n四城餐饮门店11w家，承载700w人就业（全国3000w），占了全国餐饮就业人口23%\n\n\n大城企业外溢\n\n总部和生产基地分离\n制造业外迁\n服务业分工更细化\n\n\n接入大城市规模的小城镇\n\n房产的拐角\n\n劳动是财富之父，土地是财富之母\n\n投资属性\n\n国家地区和城市的股票\n长期保存的价值存储工具\n\n身价3000w美元的高净值家庭，40%配置在房产上。然后才是股票债券类\n长周期看，(140年间16个发达国家的数据)房产回报率比股票高2个百分点（50%）\n\n股票平均回报4.6%\n房产6.6%\n\n\n\n\n\n增长与调控\n房价增速=经济增速+通胀速度+城市化速度\n\n过去20年年增速是13.5%=经济增速9.5%+通胀2.5%+城市化1.5%\n\n调控的本质\n\n财富差距问题\n不是降房价，而是降增速\n\n让没买的人有机会买，分享经济增长和城市化过程中的财富增值\n\n\n\n拐角后时代\n拐角：快速城市化的结束，整体快速上涨结束\n租金即王道\n寻找租金增速上升最快的房产\n核心区域&quot;老破小&quot;好过远郊大别墅\n不同收入阶段，”舒适“的定义不同\n从温度舒适角度考虑，南方比北方好\n收入提高，时间越来越贵\n\n城市中心\n郊区地铁站旁\n无地铁无价值\n\n海景房的问题\n\n既不稀缺也不珍贵\n\n\n交通不便\n生活配套不完善\n教育和医疗资源缺乏\n\n财富”代际转移“需求：学位房\n阶层育儿方式的扎心差异\n\n贫困和工薪阶层倾向于给孩子更多自主权\n中产和富豪阶层对子女成长更加雄心，投入物质和时间更多\n\n在恐惧中贪婪\n通胀\n反映实际增速与潜在增速的关系：通胀水平高则目前增速高于潜在增速，反之低于\n高低不明确\n\nCPI高（膨胀）\nPPI低（紧缩）\n\n\n剔除食品和能源波动大的元素后，中国核心CPI数据1.5%（警戒线2%），不严重甚至偏低\n\n全球贸易特征\n\n全球巨大产业链\n中间品（零部件，原材料）占70%\n制成品30%\n\nG2摩擦\n###主要摩擦点\n\n人民币升值（金融）\n保护知识产权（科技）\n\n美国的核心竞争力\n科学技术\n\n知识产权保护\n技术转让\n\n货币金融\n\n金融服务\n汇率\n\n全球领导地位\n\n争端解决机制\n扩大贸易合作\n\n\n美国主要靠进口商品，商品贸易方面与中国并无冲突。贸易摩擦在同意中国加入WTO那天就结束了\n\nG2产业差异\n\n美：80%服务业\n中\n\n制造业占比较大\n服务业52%\n\n\n\n\n剔除服务的商品贸易总额，中国稍高一些\n\n幸福的烦恼\n消费时代降临\n\n服务业经济元年（2013）\n服务业（46.9%）首超第二产业（44.2%），成为支柱产业\n2018年已达52%\n大城市接力工业化，成为经济主发动机\n\n改开驱动力\n改革开放40年以快速工业化为基本驱动力，造成工业化超前，城市化滞后\n经济结构的本源性特征\n\n工业化太快，不平衡，不协调，不可持续\n\n唯一要担心是创新的不足\n\n有35项核心技术还待突破\n\n供给侧改革\n\n长期看供给，短期看需求，需求看政策\n长期没有其它办法，只能靠日积月累的技术进步，也是供给侧改革的缘由\n\n参考\n1.搜狐 人均GDP到一万美元时都发生了什么 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"三则面试的所录所想","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E5%88%99%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E7%9A%84%E6%89%80%E5%BD%95%E6%89%80%E6%83%B3.html","content":"\n这篇文章来自于19年的三则招聘，在跟被面试者对谈过程中，通过对方的口填补一些空白信息，或者交换印证一些看法，是一个有趣有益的体验。\nCase 1\n一个 鹅厂–&gt;猫厂–&gt;鹅厂 的候选人，心理不舒服想继续出来。鹅厂人出来的大概率原因，项目不满意。因为在给力的项目中，成就感和收入回报是让你不舍得走的，或者脱离了这个项目，你根本没有能力获取与之对应的价值，正所谓作为一个螺丝钉，离了操作平台没啥大作用。\n做专做扎实，做领域（行业）专家\n\n还是一个蛮理想的候选人，面谈期间，他的大意是想在一个领域做专做扎实，沉淀下来，结合技术方向做领域（行业）专家。这句话的确是对的，因为基础技术领域的执牛耳者太少，多数人并不适合走这条路，能走这条路的人其实起跑很早，外加天赋异禀。\n当他二进宫去鹅厂云部门时，痛苦于项目管理不合理，每个人并行几个项目，搞得人心累。出于追赶状态下，动作变形，手上还是拖拉机时，对外承诺已经是法拉利了，这是他口中的鹅厂的最大问题管理混乱，从这几年鹅厂的增增日上，反推出来，他应该是掉进一个不太好的组里去了，组里的领头人水平不行。\n反之，他感慨猫厂底层中台的支撑能力是非常强大的，鹅厂这边很多组件经常暴露问题，例如调度系统出问题，导致报表和分析一天都没出来。结合上面的法拉利论，这种情况是一定程度的现实，鹅厂的不少系统设计上有些糙的，外加先上线再优化的传统，出毛病自然而然。这并不需要一杆子打死，任何做系统，尤其是摊饼摊的太大的系统，一定早期问题很多，猫厂的系统起步更早，理应更加稳定\n中台如何考核\n旋而问之提出中台理念的猫厂，中台如何考核？答之如阿里云允许你花精力做探索性工作，如支持你成为某些开源项目的贡献者，作为绩效的一部分。\n内部中台，多少业务接入了，服务数据量如何。\n总而言之一句话，透明，通过技术尊重达成人员能力发展的人企平衡，相信我，公司有一千个招能约束你/考核你不是肆意摸鱼。\n猫厂还有哪些值得回味的点\n何为敏捷\n敏捷=story拆分合理，串行执行。以项目制组织人员，动态调动兵力，集中攻克问题（项目）\n总结抽象，拔高认知\n写周报，强调关注对业务整体的提升有什么帮助。逍遥子是财务出身，对数字非常敏感，反向影响每周的报表要做分析\n猫厂和菊花厂，是现在市场上溢价能力比较高的两家，因为大家都想学他们，两家都是组织变革的代表，不断的折腾，不断的不让组织稳定。学习者以期打造同样的组织成功来促成业务成功。为什么要请他们念经？因为视野认识在，类比于搞市场，得把钱交给花过大钱的人。\nCase 2\n大数据变现的渠道有哪些\n\n风控\n推荐 – 广告也是推荐的应用\n\n来自于一个长期搞大数据的候选人，简单的两句有道理给大家看看\n个性特征+动机+价值观 = 天赋\n实际候选人有缺陷，在与合作者沟通和影响力引领上，是低于同龄人，一个人在特定的年龄段，必须完成跟大家相似的里程碑。如果没有，要么强，要么有问题。所以考察时必须要全面。\n\n个性特征+动机+价值观 = 天赋，你不要去尝试改变或影响，所以关注考察基本面非常重要\n越放松越真实\n在放松的状态下，问过去的工作职责，印象最深积累最多的排在前面，看与企业要求是否匹配。\nCase 3\n一则面试反例\n博士读的计算机，2年工作经验，去腾讯之前在中兴还有些深度，做自研版本的mysql数据库，做智能电网的项目。跑去腾讯做微黄金的cgi开发，一些简单的设计。这类基础的开发工作，与其求学履历不对等匹配，个人觉得实在是浪费，不知道其个人为什么有这样的安排。\n如果你想在较不擅长的取得成功，那你们的生活可能会过得一团糟，持续经营优势才是明智之选。这句话强调的是务实之选，并不是说让大家故步自封。\n保持好奇心无可厚非，且相当值得，只是要付出努力\n\n建立立体化的思维模式/体系非常有必要\n并且你拥有的基本知识越多，需要吸取的新知识就越少\n\n痕迹体现经历，观点体现价值观\n判断一个人的成就动机：借助对第三者的评价（身边哪些人混的好），来获取他内心的成就动机。类似于其它标准的体察，同样可通过其对其它事件的评价，而不是直接问。\n\n成就动机跨越价值观定型到挂掉这么一个长周期，分为六类：权、钱、术、名、地位、闲\n\n判断一个人的职业动机：你认为最成功的三个人。此句语义上与混的好不好有差别，混得好不好易生活工作一起谈，更适合成就动机。\n\n职业动机跨度进入职场—&gt;退休这段周期，分为四类：权力，影响，亲和，成就\n\n成就动机和职业动机有一定的映射关系，成就动机里的地位对应影响动机，好名声对应亲和动机，闲这类职业动机不高，钱和术都映射为成就动机，权力不必多说，职业动机也是权力。\n后记\n代际变化整体趋势要求工作有趣化，只有两种途径\n\n氛围有趣化（容易做，但不持久）\n工作内容有趣化（难，持久，但员工兴趣感知不同）\n\n最顶级的公司，肯定两者都不能缺了。追其本质，团队管理者还是在难的一条路上多下功夫。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["访谈"]},{"title":"三国人物年龄与杂记","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\n三国人物出场\n30后\n陶谦(132-194,62岁)大刘备29岁，属于献帝爷爷同一年出生的人，跟董卓(139-192,53岁)，益州刘焉（约135-194,约59岁）他们是一代人\n40后\n刘表(142-208,66岁)都要更小十岁，但也比曹操大13岁，袁绍（146-202，56岁）大曹操9岁。这些都属于上一茬的。\n\n袁绍176-182年守孝6年，在守孝之前刚被委任濮阳县长（不满万户）不久。守孝有目的的避开了宦官强盛时的“党锢之祸”\n\n华佗（145-208,63岁），其「因撒谎和不服征召罪」被曹操冲动「以为华佗可治好他的病却故意不治断根，要挟自抬身价」所杀，三国志里也却确实记载其「以医见业，意常自悔」，「恃能厌食事（讨厌为吃饭而受人役使）」。其医书《青囊书》狱吏不敢接，华佗直接付之一炬了，可惜。华曹双方都有点问题，但曹阿瞒确实过于冲动了，虽然华佗死后阿瞒又活了 12 年，及后爱子曹冲（活了 12 岁）病困，阿瞒叹曰：“吾悔杀华佗！令此儿强死也&quot;。\n50后\n主角多是15x年后登场\n袁术（150-199,49岁）大曹操5岁；曹操(155-220，65岁) 与孙坚同岁，阿瞒应该是死于脑肿瘤，这在当时的确治不好；\n吕布的年龄\n\n一众耳熟能详的人物，除了投在/成了帝王家，否则在史书上很多都没有清晰的生卒年记载，吕布如此，董卓如此，袁绍如此，赵云如此，士族大家尚且如此，更别说百姓家。史有不足，但今人仍愿探佚~\n\n吕布(15x-199)，今包头人，应该是汉匈混血，吕布唤备弟，大家都认为其大于刘备。黄巾之乱(184)年在丁原手下做主簿，古人二十弱冠，被丁原识中肯定在20~30之间。188年丁原接替在与胡人的战争中死亡的并州刺史张仪懿继任其职务，第二年就被被噶了，可能在丁原手下被画了多年大饼，年龄不小了，才禁不住董卓的诱惑杀了自己知遇之人。\n但网络上一说吕布生于151年，还大曹操4岁，我深入琢磨认为也不太可靠。吕布手刃董卓（192）后，还与郭汜单挑，后逃出长安带着几百骑兵到处投靠，期间还在袁绍处冲杀山贼叛乱，如果生于151年，那时就42岁开外了，虽生猛但在古人年龄也算不惑之际了。另外张辽他们同属并州兵出身随丁原，后跟吕布，他俩应有一定的年岁差距，但不至于差18岁一代人这么多。\n自194年，吕布已成汉世豪强，曹攻吕，正史未见二人年龄差之类的对话或口气出现。更合适的推测是吕布略小于曹操，156年或许是一个靠谱的值。那么其亡于43岁，在丁原手下做主簿时28岁，189年拜中郎将时33岁。\n\n历史的特性之一，是它的“不可深考性”。没有一件历史的事实，曾经留下全部的史料。然而这门历史学问，虽则有捕风捉影之嫌，却不可废。先民过去的经验，我们总不能不参考，总不能不研究，尽量谨严之。\n\n60后\n曹操大 关羽(160-220，60岁) 5岁，大 刘备(161-223，62岁) 6岁。\n\n🔔 注意\n关羽实际大刘备1岁，这点估计触犯了大家的常识\n\n张飞（167-221，54岁）小刘备6岁，推测赵云小张飞1岁（168-229，61岁）\n\n黄忠年龄\n《三国志-费诗传》羽闻黄忠为后将军，羽怒曰：“大丈夫终不与老兵同列！”，此时关羽已经59岁(独领荆州5年)，黄忠在《三国志》中得到的描写也是“常先登陷阵（第一个登顶城楼，拿下城池）,勇毅冠三军”，不会是一个比关羽更老的人做的。\n\n作战的风格和张辽相近，张辽远征乌桓的时候也是靠着刚勇和肉搏死战拿下了胜利，而黄忠同样是好短兵相接，张辽（169）年生人，已经接近60年代末\n斩杀一直缺乏战功的“白地将军”夏侯渊，也被羽认为没有足够的分量，也是因为黄忠早年无甚显赫战功。\n\n按照黄忠的出道时间，192年刘表入荆州时，黄忠此时被任命为中郎将，和刘表的侄子刘磐一起在长沙驻守。普遍将领在三十多岁左右出任这一职位（中郎将）。黄忠的年龄处在160年代，较为合理。年龄肯定是关羽更大，只是黄忠与飞，云二位谁更大，没有史料支撑。\n\n黄忠在长沙和太史慈的多次交手，推断黄忠和太史慈(166)的年龄差不多，不至于年轻好多跳入70后去\n黄忠在封后将军后第二年就去世了（按上面的推测54岁），不似三国演义里为了英雄人物形象丰满，还要创作到关羽死之后的夷陵之战中。\n\n70后\n孙策（175-200）与周瑜（175-210，35岁）同岁，比其弟大7岁，可惜江东小霸王走的早，25岁就见他爹去了。\n周瑜大诸葛亮6岁，鲁肃（172-217，45岁）大周瑜3岁，司马懿（179-251，72岁）大诸葛亮2岁\n马超(176)小周瑜1岁，算是蜀汉的中生代将军，本可能支撑到北伐阶段，可惜死的早（46岁）\n80后\n刘备大 诸葛亮(181-234，53岁) 20岁，长 孙权(182-252，70岁) 21岁。\n汉献帝(181-234) 与诸葛一般年纪，活得年岁也一样大，当山阳公当了14 年。\n陆逊（183-245，62岁）虽然出场晚，实际年龄只比孙权小1岁，也就比周瑜小8岁而已。\n\n📌三顾茅庐诸葛出山时27岁\n\n魏延年龄\n\n魏延以刘备部曲（私人招募武装）的身份随先主入蜀（211），由于其是义阳（按西晋时郡属为当前南阳桐柏县）人，在荆州时期招募，当大头兵跟随刘备入川，应该不超过30岁。此时诸葛已经30整了。故理论上比诸葛亮还要年轻几岁，其也算是刘备作为黄埔军校校长，培养的第一期嫡系门生。\n\n曹丕（187-226，39岁）年生，在自己33岁时篡汉（逼献帝禅让，献帝当时39，不过献帝退休待遇还不错）\n90后\n曹植192年生，41岁时忧郁病逝，比其哥哥还长寿些\n邓艾（197-264，67岁），偷渡阴平（263）神兵天降（66岁）绕道剑阁关姜维身后（大姜维5岁），偷袭成都，蜀国投降\n00后\n姜维(202-264,62岁) 小诸葛亮21岁\n刘备生刘禅（207）时已经46岁了，刘禅的年龄都没曹操孙子大，还比姜维小5岁，可在位时间长啊，41年，享年64岁，比一众人君都长。\n10后\n司马昭(211-265，54岁) 小刘禅4岁\n20后\n邓艾钟会灭蜀，钟会（225-264,39岁）比邓艾小28岁，也小姜维23岁\n30后\n司马炎(236~290,54岁)，266年30岁时代魏建晋，开启司马家的昏聩王朝\n黄巾之乱\n黄天当立立不住\n黄金之乱开始于汉灵帝光和7年（184年），185年就剩零星的冲突了，对于三国历史的意义其实有点像RPG游戏中出了新手村后面对的第一个BOSS一样，远不能跟唐末的黄巢之乱和清末的太平天国起义相比。\n\n爆发于公元184年的2月份，原本定的起义时间是3月，但是因为起义内部的叛徒济南人唐周告密，所以起义提前了1个月。看出来多半是没有彻底准备好就被迫起事，到指挥者张角兄弟的仅存者张宝被斩杀是在同一年的11月，前后持续了不到一年时间。\n\n记载中完全看不到黄巾军有任何建立成型政治体系的能力，汉末三国历史，没有一个有所作为或是堪称一流的人才出身于黄巾势力，基本上决定了黄巾之乱不具备建立起与东汉王朝相抗衡的有效政权的能力。\n张角虽是太平道的领袖，却只在冀州转战，没有为其他军团作调控，没有同一目标，只是占地死守或四处抢劫。加上当友军有难时，各军都不会相救，官军利用此缺点予以各个击破。\n为了有效平定叛乱，朝廷对暴动频发和集中的刺史监察区改置州牧，延缓了黄巾之乱对全国的蔓延，起到了减缓东汉结束的作用。董卓掌权后，地方手握重兵的刺史和太守集体反叛中央朝廷，为东汉晚期军阀鏖战揭开序幕。\n黄巾时几路主角年龄\n袁绍当时38岁，守孝结束隐居洛阳并未任职，直到黄巾后184年朝廷取消党禁，大赦天下党人，才应大将军何进的辟召。\n曹操29岁，有积极参加镇压黄巾起义。\n刘备23岁，也开始投身讨黄巾，可参见昭烈帝生平。\n此时孙权是一个2岁的小宝宝。\n赤壁三分年龄考\n曹\n赤壁之战曹操已经53了，张颌42，张辽39岁，司马懿29\n刘\n刘备47，关48，张飞41，赵云小张飞一岁40，诸葛27。\n孙\n孙权26，鲁肃36岁，周瑜33，陆逊25。\n结合三国演义+裴松之注《云别传》解读赵云\n\n赵云的战迹没有关张那样耀眼，但他一生追寻仁主并坚守初心到最后，一生不争不抢，不管军功大小，都一往无前\n罗贯中也算是非常欣赏赵云，所以在演义里给赵云加了很多高光时刻。下文与史书不矛盾，但正史传记中对赵云记载并不详细，描述过于细节的地方则是根据三国演义的发挥，如早期的心理活动，与刘备的生动互动。\n\n赵云早期是常山郡民团团长，却也是常山郡领导干部最头疼的人。养，没钱，不养怕其闹事。故推荐其去投奔公孙瓒，当时公孙和袁绍正在争冀州，袁绍名气更大，距离也更近，为何为公孙转身？其实公孙瓒对此事也费解，赵云给出的解释是：天下大乱，不知谁是明主，百姓有倒悬之危，常山人经过讨论，决定追寻能实施仁政的地方。身为冀州人投奔幽州人公孙瓒，是因为他认为袁绍是乱贼，公孙是维护大汉统治，所以选择了公孙。赵云为了心中的道德，舍近求远，选择了公孙瓒，但热脸贴了冷屁股。天下大乱，人如蝼蚁，谈道德，不是伪君子就是幼稚鬼，所以一直不得重用。但人生充满意外和惊喜，刘备也来同窗公孙瓒这里求职。为了对抗袁绍，公孙瓒派赵云随军出征，做刘备的骑兵连长。刘赵二人对仁德的理念不谋而合，建立了最初的革命友谊。\n此时刘备还是打工仔，没能力也万万不能挖公孙同学的墙角。赵云和刘备说：终不背德也，这是其一生的座右铭。身为公孙瓒的部下，虽与刘备互相欣赏，但公孙瓒败亡前，始终也未背弃公孙瓒而南下投刘。\n后来看到公孙瓒趋向残暴，且闭城自守而自取死路，也没有接受袁绍的招降，因兄长去世而回家奔丧，避回乡里，一避就是六年。这六年中刘备的人生如同过山车，从小小别部司马到豫州刺史，徐州牧，直到左将军。公元200年，衣带诏事件爆发，刘备从曹操处出逃，投奔袁绍，赵云主动来到邺城，多年后相见，二人同床而卧四晚，讲述彼此的过往，回忆过去的峥嵘，展望理想的未来，灵魂和理想的交织与碰撞，从此赵云成了刘备最坚实的战友。\n后来赵云成功保护刘备投奔刘表，博望坡之战赵云生擒敌将夏侯兰，其是赵云的发小，但他丝毫不徇私，做到公私分明。刘备也给面子，没杀夏侯兰还让其做了军官。曹操亲自攻打刘表，刘备不敌不战而走，路过襄阳，百姓自发跟随刘备，刘备没有让赵云失望，放弃快速逃命机会携民渡江。导致行军缓慢，虎豹骑追到当阳长板桥，刘备妻小在混乱中走散，刘备年近五十，儿子当然金贵。赵云能在兵乱中帮刘备保住家眷，非同小可。长坂坡之战后，刘备就任赵云为牙门将军，此称号是刘备的为赵云在三国期间首创的，牙门顾名思义，就是守门的牙齿，刘备有两颗，一颗赵云，一颗魏延，后来吴国也学刘备设立，但没人配担任。\n赤壁之战后，赵云平江南，升为偏将军，领桂阳太守。等刘备迎娶孙夫人后，孙夫人手下横行霸道，刘备知道后特命赵云掌管内事，也就是家事。下属参与领导家事处理不好就会里外不是人，且孙刘是政治联姻，事情更复杂一些，往大了说是外交事务，这说明赵云在刘备眼中有着寻常武将不具备的细腻谨慎。长期跟随在刘备诸葛亮身边，所以赵云很少有单独作战的一面，因此战迹不及其它武将。单独带兵作战，史书有两次记载。一次是刘备打益州，走水路，协同刘备完成对刘璋的包围，刘备入主成都之后，任命赵云为翊($y\\grave{i}$)军将军，又是独创，有起飞又有辅佐之意。\n刘备为了表彰属下，计划把成都的房产和城外的庄园分封，赵云却站出来反对：国贼未除，还不是享乐的时候。且益州百姓刚遭遇战祸，应将田宅房产归百姓，发展经济，安居乐业，然后使他们服兵役，纳户税，收取民心。赵云还和20年前一模一样，历经风雨仍不忘初心。\n夷陵之战时，赵云劝谏无效，任命兵督江州，夷陵兵败后，赵云兵至永安，在刘备人生末尾，护刘备周全，刘备临终前，升任赵云为中护军，征南将军，封永昌亭侯，中护军这个位置很重要，是一个掌握军中实权的位置，就是希望他帮助刘禅看住兵权，毕竟这个世界谁背叛刘禅，将刘禅从尸山血海中带出来的赵云也不会。他不需要赵云冲锋陷阵，要的就是他好好活着，等他若不在了有一天可以帮他照顾儿子。\n赵云参加第一次北伐，也是他第二次独立带兵作战，奉命兵出箕($j\\bar{i}$)谷，牵制曹真率领的魏军主力，诸葛亮趁机兵出岐山。敌强我弱，赵云从容指挥，街亭之失负责断后，损失极小，次年赵云去世，他救的刘禅也没忘了他，谥赵云为顺平侯，是为全蜀汉有谥号的12人之一。\n铜雀春深锁二乔？\n\n东汉大儒有云：“天子 有三台：灵台，以观天文；时台，以观四时，施化；囿 台，以观鸟兽鱼鳖。诸侯卑，不得观天文，无灵台；但 有时台、囿台也。”\n\n铜雀台开建于建安15年冬（210）， 历时1年多，建安17年春建成(212)，算是作为“武平 县侯”曹操的一种僭越试探，打破了列侯“不立宫室”的规定。\n（213）提升为魏公后再建金虎台，冰井台二台，算是赤裸裸的僭越了，政治喻示可谓昭然若揭。当时的普遍认识是天子可以建三台，诸侯只能建两台。\n而后一系列的超然政治待遇提升接踵而至，终建安二十一年（216 年），曹操正式被封魏王。建安二十二年(217），曹操可以设天子旌旗，称天子 “警跸” （即出行像天子一样，沿途侍卫警戒、清道止行）。不久干脆直接使用天子的十二旒礼冠和礼仪车队，成为不是天子的“天子”。曹操以人臣所能获得的一切，至此达到顶峰，只差最后一步“改元”天下，更换国号，而这是曹丕登位后迫不及待要做的事。\n赤壁之战开始于建安十三年(208)年，这时锁二乔的念头虽可以有，但还跟铜雀台沾不上边。后世文人的梦想附会可见一斑，也显示出创作者历史背景架设的成功，与金庸的作品无不相似之处。\n卧龙与凤雏\n二人背景差异很大，诸葛背景优渥占优。诸葛亮和荆州主要的上层人物，都有着密切的关系。\n诸葛亮的妻子称刘表姨父，称蔡瑁舅舅，诸葛亮和刘表、蔡瑁都是亲戚。\n庞统比诸葛大2岁，因背景弱很多，故早就出仕干活，后是主动投靠刘备。\n英雄暮年经不起打击\n\n\n官渡之战袁绍54，曹操45，故袁绍战败后一年半就去世了(56)\n\n\n刘备也是夷陵之战后一病不起，10个月后就去会二位兄弟了(62)\n\n\n曹家不耐熬\n曹丕比司马懿小8岁，活的时间还短，39就嗝屁了。传给儿子曹叡，可儿子也才活了35岁，在位13年。父子俩接力都没活过司马懿。\n再传曹芳，即位时才7岁，曹芳非曹叡亲生，也埋下被废的祸根。曹芳17岁时经高平陵之变，大权旁落司马氏。司马懿爽了2年后也嗝屁了，值了，72了。\n曹芳22岁时彻底被废，由更年轻的13岁的曹髦替他，曹髦有勇气，可19岁被众目睽睽弑君。\n由比曹髦小5岁的曹奂即位（叔叔接替侄子）。曹奂实际与曹叡是一辈的，都是曹操的孙子，曹芳与曹髦都是曾孙辈。\n曹奂即位再5年后司马炎篡位建晋朝。\nflowchart LR\nA[[曹操: 65]]--次子-->B[[曹丕: 39]]\nA--三子-->C(曹彰)\nB--长子-->D[[曹叡: 35]]\nD--养子-->E[[曹芳：43，在位15年]]\nC--孙子--->E\nE--儿子-->G[[曹髦：19]]\nG-->H\nA--九子-->F(曹宇唯一活过60岁)\nF--儿子----->H[[曹奂：58岁，在位5年叔叔接棒最后一任]]\n高平陵之变为何没人阻止司马懿\n当时在群臣眼中，大反派是曹爽而不是司马懿，曹爽这么遭人恨，正是因为他之前进行了一场改革，触及了各方权臣门阀的利益，而不是因为他尸位素餐。\n这场改革就是历史上的《正始改制》，包含三个方面的内容：\n\n📌 曹丕为了向世族争取支持和妥协搞出的九品中正制，中正官权力很大，所有人的升迁录用全在中正官一句话上，就成了世家大族就业解决办事处。\n\n\n第一个是整顿九品官人法，要求原来中正官(高级人力HR），曹爽跳出来说你们挑出来的都是自家人，要改制，不能由中正官一家说了算，必须由中央的尚书台来决定，中正官以后就负责考察候选人道德水平和看地方官员工作能力，等同于一下子把中正官最大的权力掳走了，不是因为曹爽体贴底层人，而是任何正常的集权王朝都会逐渐的把权利从地方收上去。\n第二个改革内容就是废除郡的行政级别，将全国直接变成州县两个行政级别，这么改是因为郡这个行政级别冗官太严重，做的事情和上下级别又重叠。\n第三个级别就是改革服饰，包括官员的衣服车马，就是要求勤俭杜绝奢靡。\n\n曹爽做的全是戳世家大族气管的事情，这帮人觉得你都坐上大将军了，不享福非得改制，又要限制世家大族的人事任命权，还要废除郡，砸人家的地方工资，还不让人家享乐，不收拾你收拾谁。所以这场正始改制在历史上几乎没有存在感。\n作为司马家的对立面，后来正史《晋书》当中，就把曹爽写成纯纯的反派形象，花天酒地任人唯亲。世家大族对当时司马懿养私人武装当时全都装糊涂，高平陵之变发生时亦反应相当冷静，毕竟对他们来说是重大利好消息。\n此后的世族们就彻底放飞自我了，整个西晋一朝，世家权贵全都陷入了一场疯狂的享乐狂欢之中，世族也渐渐变成了土皇帝，门阀继而孕育而生。而曹爽和他的正始改制被扔进了垃圾桶。\n昭烈帝生平\n伪职期\n刘备23岁（184年）开始讨黄巾，因军功干过县公安局长(县尉)，也干过县委书记秘书长(县丞)，后干到大县县令(不到万户小县称县长)，在县长任上被贼人击破，投奔公孙瓒，任别部司马(低阶军官，下无定员)，是公孙瓒封的，算是伪职，无法律效力，包括后来干的平原令，豫州刺史(省纪委书记)，徐州牧，都算伪职。\n官方认定中级军官\n后曹操为拉拢刘备抗击袁术，表奏刘备镇东将军，封宜城亭侯。四镇将军与四征将军，四平将军类似，级别略逊四方将军。但此刻是官方认定的了，前任镇东正是曹操，此时刘备35岁(迁都许昌改建安年号，建安元年)，成为中级军官。\n宜城亭侯有否辱没?\n宜城在刘表手下，算是虚封，收税不可能收到刘表地盘，曹在兖州，刘在徐州，汉末军阀多数爵位也就止于亭侯，也不算辱没。\n荣膺左将军\n刘备吕布交恶后，投奔曹操，曹正式册封豫州牧，37岁正式做到省委书记。但豫州牧为遥领，属于空有政治级别。同年吕布战死，备力战有功，被正式册封左将军，一生荣耀的资本。\n军职阶层\n\n📝 东汉时大司马位尊而无所统御，相当于荣誉军委主席\n\n大将军一般为外戚所任，大将军下有骠骑将军，车骑将军，卫将军和四方将军，此八将军位高权重，是为重号将军。大将军和骠骑将军位次丞相，其余位次上卿。左将军之前正是吕布，再之前为袁术。\n左将军谢幕\n39岁，衣带诏事发，一路客居袁绍刘表阵营，蹉跎岁月，流亡途中时刻将左将军印带身边，虽曹此刻又将左将军封给于禁。\n47岁赤壁胜利又重新扬眉吐气。58岁称王，60岁称帝，62岁亡。\n英雄不简单\n刘备的前半生是很糟糕的，五易其主，四失妻子，不停投靠他人，不停遭到挫折和失败。但何曾见过刘备灰心丧气，只见他屡败屡战。他是英雄，关张诸葛都看出来，曹操也看出来。\n终究是大汉气数尽了，人力不可逆，老天为了阻止刘备，耗尽了三国的英雄气，正因为刘备，400年的汉朝才结束的如此体面，刘备的存在，给大汉一个隆重的葬礼。\n在宋时，百姓听书，每听到刘备败退皆是扼腕叹息，每听到曹操败退皆是鼓掌欢庆。那时人虽然受教育程度不高，但大多都相信世间有仁义之事，有行仁义之人。而今人多利己，不相信世上有不为己的人。如此对比之下，曹操更符合今人的认知，于是尊曹贬刘。于是枭雄变成了英雄。\n刘备能让姜维一个素未蒙面的誓死效忠蜀汉，让手握重权诸葛亮鞠躬尽瘁，让北地王刘湛（其孙子）当做信仰自刎于庙堂，谥号昭烈少见。其德昭昭，其志烈烈，屡败屡战，百折不挠。\n三国这段历史国民度这么高，有人说是因为诸葛孔明，关云长的忠诚符合历代统治者的教化意图，但这样的忠臣，历史上并不少见。真正的原因可以说是刘备，蜀国圈粉无数的大 V，都应该感谢他。正因为玄德公这个理想主义的存在，三国才焕发出了传奇性和英雄主义色彩，才没有像东晋十六国、五代十国一样成为『冷门历史』，那些当时有些能力的人才没有被历史洪流埋没，才能在 2 千多年后依然被记得被讨论。\n作为蜀汉创始人，玄德公既有圣教徒般的矢志不渝的虔诚与执着，又有亡命徒般彪悍刚毅的果决和热血，他和他的追随者屡屡在走投无路、山穷水尽时，仍保持旺盛昂扬的进取意志，始终不屈不挠，从草创到覆灭，蜀汉内部始终能做到君臣互信，上下一心，或许就来自于理想主义者的精神感召。对面的曹魏和孙吴，普遍缺乏这种状态。曹魏良将颇多，但实际掌权的永远是曹家和夏侯家，孙吴好几任都督死得不明不白。是曹孙蠢么？非也！因为囚徒困境、权谋制衡，才是人类历史的常态。更映衬蜀汉是极富浪漫主义和理想主义的政权，像一朵在历史刀光剑影和血雨腥风中独自盛开的理想主义之花，让人击节赞叹！\n节&amp;钺\n节是使者代表皇帝处理国家事务时所持的信物 , 不是专杀权的象征。钺为斧钺，一种刑具。\n\n节：最常见的形象就是苏武；长安三万里中持节监军程元振，也有节的画面形象出现\n假：权以给之,不常与\n\n\n\n假节：平时没有权利处置人，战时可斩杀犯军令的人。\n\n\n持节：平时可杀无官位之人，战时可斩杀二千石以下官员。\n\n\n使持节：平时及战时皆可斩杀二千石以下官员。\n\n\n假节钺：战时状态，可杀节将（含假节、持节、使持节）\n\n\n三国人口变动\n东汉末年没爆发黄巾赤眉时，5000w人(也有一说5600w人)，三国期间人口损失比例最多，人口下降71%，只剩1600w人（也有配套一说760w）\n\n看到这些初步惊心的数字，看得出来三国是中国谋略斗争一个高光时刻，亦是老百姓的一个灾难时刻。真实刻画了一将功成万骨枯，兴百姓苦，亡百姓苦的历史规律。真是盛世尽其力，乱世用其命（白话来说：穷人是战争时代的炮灰，和平时代待宰的羔羊）。\n三国时期杀人比例历代最高，带来71%登记人口的减少。但论绝对的损失人口最多，还得是太平天国时期，带来中国人口损失在1亿（一说7500w）以上，大约30%死于战争本身，剩余70%死于传染病霍乱。对长江中下游地区损失影响最大。\n\n\n📍三国农户数登记对比\n\n蜀国90，吴国240w，魏国440w\n\n📌 军队数量对比\n\n吴国23w军队，蜀国10w军队\n\n三户一兵， 蜀国加后勤应该有10万，但是不可能动用这么多，出兵一直都是1–3万\n姜维巅峰期估计也最多3万兵马！蜀国才90万人，3万兵6万伕，9万估计是极限了！\n\n\n战争就是赌博，好赌的人必输得裤衩都不剩，要就要一战定乾坤，而不要百战而陷泥潭（历史上从不缺百战而亡的典范）。 从这个角度，蜀国最后一直北伐，百姓应是最惨的，也是为何最后直接投降的原因吧。\n\n冷兵器时代的战斗\n兵力估算\n70%劳动人口很大比例了，50%女性，35%的男性劳动力，结合古代 3兵6伕 的投入比，能上战场再1/3，大致也就10%的远程极限兵力。现代28天的中越战争中，50w军力中后勤就占30w。现代美军的后勤比例更高，现役140w人，一线作战仅20多w，几乎达到每十名后勤人员补给一个战斗人员的比例，这才有了美军傲世全球的后勤能力，无论是食品还是武器弹药，美军都不需要担心这些物资的消耗。\n长平之战\n《史记》中说，长平之战，秦军共出动了60万军队。假设每个士兵每天吃1斤谷物，一天需要60万斤，长平对峙2年，就按照700天来算，总共需要21万吨。从秦国的收集和转运中心渭河谷地为起点，到太行山麓的长平大约是500千米。秦国+巴蜀约莫500万人，那么要每人交40公斤粮食才能保障。考虑到可能要配30w人后勤运输粮食，路上人吃马喂，整体要40万吨粮食。40万吨，那么每个人要交80公斤粮食。10税一的比例下，要人均产出800公斤粮食，这远超出了当时的农业生产力，要么就是积攒很多很多年的粮，才能打这一仗，要么就是60w是严重夸大其词，要么这里面包括大量的后勤兵[6]。\n汉匈之战\n《史记》记载元狩四年春卫青与霍去病兵分两路出击匈奴，武帝以14万匹战马及50万步卒作为后勤补给兵团，授于卫青与霍去病各五万骑兵，另步兵和运输物资的军队十万余，总人数约70万出击匈奴，70万人中，真正的战兵仅10万，辅兵10万，后勤兵有50万，占比达到了70%\n北宋记录\n沈括《梦溪笔谈》中有记：卒自携五日干粮，人食日二升。每个民夫可以背6斗米，那么一个民夫供应1个士兵，可以支撑18天，如果考虑回程，只能前进9天的路程。\n\n\n\n1斗10升，卒自带相当于1斗。二人合计7斗，7*10/2(人)/2(升)=17.5≈18天\n\n\n两个民夫供应一个士兵的话，单程可以维持26天，回程支撑13天（这还是考虑到1民夫带的粮食快吃完了，就发粮遣散回去，减少每日前线口粮的情况下）\n\n\n三个民夫供应1个士兵，单程可维持31天，回程支撑16天。在那个年代三人饷一卒，极矣！\n\n\n随着民夫的增加，运输能力确实增加了，但支撑天数边际效应却在递减。后勤运输无法用规模效应来降低成本！\n\n隋征高句丽\n《隋书·本纪四》记载：隋军第一次远征高句丽时，“凡一百一十三万三千八百人，号二百万，其馈运者倍之。”负责运送粮草的人员达到了令人瞠目结舌的70%\n战损比\n古代军队伤亡率超过 10% / 15%就会崩溃， 有这么一个观点。\n说这个问题吧，伤亡超过10%，不是整条战线逢10死1，而是某一点击穿了，一个局部已经被杀百分之七八十，局部作战单位已经不能发挥战术作用。这时战术部署已坏，还能不撤/不败？例如侧翼、中路、或包抄，导致某支关键部队完了，有缺口了，引起雪崩效应。\n古代几十场会战中，胜利方多数损失率不超过10%，一般看在7%以下，平均是1%~ 5%，从一个侧面可以认为，通常情况古代军队是比较难撑到10%这个全面伤亡率的，战败方那不不好说了，一溃就被追杀，损失率比正面交锋还高。古代作战，精锐在前，役夫在后，精锐按作战计划对敌实施突破，一旦形成压倒性优势，全军鼓动形成顺风态势，役夫也可争功追杀溃退的敌军，完成战役任务。\n如何理解10%这个比例，古代军队作战，只有精锐有战斗力，其它役夫多数是乌合之众，没有接受过军事训练。也正因为如此，古代战争中劫营经常只需要少量的精锐展开攻击，因为留在大营的役夫不会打仗。\n这10%损失往往对应的是精锐，一支10w人的队伍，精锐总数不过3w，1w被消灭，实际是精锐损失30%，不可能有充分的预备队能顶得上，精锐除了作战还要保护大营和役夫的安全，作战效能降低，管理能力下降，役夫恐慌一旦形成炸营，很容易崩溃。\n如上为基本判断的缘由。而精锐部队，在阵型不被撕裂的状态下承受伤亡肯定高于10%，承受不了肯定是指挥出了问题，精锐团队加持宗教或风俗的思想动力，在千人级战斗力完全可以做到玉碎，死战到最后一人，历史上就有很多事迹。\n武将单挑\n《三国演义》中武将经常单挑，这显然是不真实的，不妨碍大家最津津乐道武将单挑排名。大将相拼，纯属为提高小说故事趣味而已。\n\n《三国志》+建安七子之一王粲编写的《英雄记》中，拢共只记录了4次单挑。\n\n\n董卓死后李傕、郭汜进犯长安，与王允、吕布展开了血战。吕布拿着长矛，与郭汜展开了单挑。战斗中，骁勇的吕布用矛刺伤了郭汜，但郭汜的部下给力，当时就把他给救走了–《英雄记》[1]。吕布尽管赢了单挑，却输了战争，最后弃城而走\n关羽斩颜良。袁绍派遣颜良袭击白马，曹操亲自率军救援，并派关羽、张辽为先锋迎击颜良。羽望见良麾盖，策马刺良于万众之中，斩其首还，绍诸将莫能当者，遂解白马围。\n太史慈单挑孙策。时独与一骑卒遇策，策从骑十三，皆韩当、宋谦、黄盖辈也。慈便前斗，正与策对。策刺慈马，而揽得慈项上手戟，慈亦得策兜鍪。会两家兵骑并各来赴，于是解散。（孙策刺倒了太史慈的战马，夺了他的手戟，而太史慈也摘得了孙策的战盔。算是平局）\n建安初年，韩遂与马超大战。阎行挺矛来刺马超，矛折，因以折矛挝（zhuā，击打、抓）超项，几杀之。马超显得狼狈，几乎被一无名小将所杀。\n\n将军在谋不在勇，能指挥千军万马，攻城掠地或保家卫国，能不战而屈人之兵，方可称为真正将才帅才。\n逞匹夫之勇带兵冲锋陷阵者，只可为下级军官，中级军官亦不进入前沿阵地，否则一旦伤亡，千军无首，必大败无疑。\n传国玉玺哪去了？\n传国玺的形制和由来\n\n🔔   始皇帝一统天下，规定帝、后的印章称为“玺”，并且以玉为材质；其他的官印、私印只能称为“印”\n\n正史对玉玺的记载都很少，大部分是民间传说。离秦朝最近的史书《史记》里并没有任何传国玉玺形制的记载，传国玺这个称呼最早出现是在《汉书》，班固在王莽传中，描述它最早叫做始皇玺，后来因为子婴降汉落到了刘邦手中，刘邦得了后藏于长乐宫，汉朝国祚几百年，它才有了名字传国玺的意义（号为：汉传国玺）。到这个时候史书对玺的记录也仅仅停留在它的职能上，而完全忽视它的材质。在史记、汉书两部史书中，根本没有提到它是不是由玉石所做，更遑论是用和氏璧做得了。这两位应该是有机会见到传国玉玺的，却没有支言片语的相关记录，不能不说是一个遗憾。\n在《汉书-元后传, 也就是王莽的姑姑的传记》里提及，王莽请玺，元后不得已”投之地以授“，也没提掷地缺角的事[3]。《三国演义》编写始皇曾投玺至洞庭湖镇风浪全无正史依据。\n讨论下才材质谣言\n直到《后汉书》第一次肯定了传国玺的质地，作者南朝刘宋范晔在光武帝本纪的玉玺谱中是这么记录的“传国玺，其玉出蓝田山，在玉玺掉地后加上了一个补充，“乃出玺投地。玺上螭一角缺”。在玉玺有螭龙的那个角给摔掉了，注意这个角不是螭龙的角，因为螭是一种无角的龙”，内容源流应出自东汉卫宏《汉旧仪》-- 其实《汉旧仪》只提过天子六玺，毕竟范晔所处的年代和身份无缘一见玉玺的真容，却对其描述极其详尽。\n传国玺的流行观点是由和氏璧制作，这一说法最初来源于北魏的崔浩，但他完全没有任何依据。璧都是比较薄的，完全不具有做玺的厚度。\n汉朝时期的诏书都是竹简木牍写的，因为印泥是东晋南北朝时期才有的，蘸墨汁盖章效果可不好，扩散效果一印浸一片。战汉时期的玺印都是封竹简用的，捆后用封泥封上盖个戳子。当时的印玉大小有规定，方两寸，差不多2.7~2.8厘米，&quot;吕后&quot;的皇后印玺就是2.8厘米，通高2厘米，重33克，博物馆出土的印没大的，海昏侯刘贺的也就一点大。王侯级别尚且如此，官员就更小了，和拇指肚差不多，因为要证明身份+起封印作用，需随身携带，大了也不成。\n\n\n汉印较之秦印，在布局上更趋饱满、充实。成熟后的汉印印式，多无边阑界格，印文直逼印边。印文字间、行间的空隙．往往也留得很少。汉印用“缪篆”，较“摹印篆”更趋于端方、密实。对比下面的“皇帝信玺”的文字和皇后之玺 也正好印证。\n后来的玉玺越做越大，是因为纸张和各类技术的进步随之变化\n\n《吴书》中的记载，提到“玺方围（周长）四寸，上纽交五龙，上一角缺，现今出土的秦汉印章其纽制都罕见交龙，按照汉制，皇帝、皇后、太后所用的印玺纽制都为螭虎纽，然后丞相、列侯以下为龟钮、环钮等等。只有到了隋唐以后，才渐渐地采用龙形钮。\n皇帝另有6枚印玺：皇帝(天子)行玺，皇帝(天子)之玺，皇帝(天子)信玺。赏赐诸侯王用皇帝行玺，发兵/召大臣用皇帝信玺，向外国发送文书用天子行玺。看看这个”皇帝信玺“存世孤品封泥\n\n东汉学者卫宏在《旧汉仪》中有“天子信玺皆以武都紫泥封”之说\n\n\n\n国玺文字是什么？\n你会说，上图不是传国玉玺，传国玉玺是8个字。但没有任何文物能印证此说法，只能在后代史书中看文字描述。且多本史书上记载的刻字内容还不同，有这么几种说法：\n\n\n卫宏《汉旧仪》，《吴书》，《玉玺谱》：受命于天，既寿永昌。\n\n\n应劭《汉官仪》、皇甫谧《帝王世纪》：受命于天，既寿且康。\n\n\n孙盛《晋阳秋》载冉巍大将蒋干送东晋的是：昊天之命，皇帝寿昌\n\n\n徐广、沈约《宋书·礼志五》：受天之命，皇帝寿昌。\n\n\nflowchart LR\nA(东汉卫宏)-->B(汉末应劭)-->C(魏晋《吴书》)-->D(魏晋皇甫谧)-->E(东晋《晋阳秋》)-->F(东晋&刘宋徐广)-->G(南齐《玉玺谱》)-->H(南齐&南梁《宋书·志礼》)\n首先，应劭和皇甫谧，都没有见到传国玺的机会。应劭是汉末泰山太守。因为曹操的父亲曹嵩死在泰山郡，担心曹操报复自己，便弃官投奔了袁绍，一生没见过汉献帝。\n皇甫谧是魏晋名士，一辈子都没有做官，他写的书都是坐在家里写的，他的内容推测是照着应劭的《汉官仪》抄的。\n卫宏生活的时代最早，他是汉光武帝时期人，而且也是皇帝钦命的议郎，他的说法应该最可靠。剩下的年代都越离越远或算不上24史之列的野史记载。不足为信。\n\n卫宏乃是东汉初人，著《汉旧仪》四卷。在《后汉书．卷四八．徐璆传》唐．章怀太子注引卫宏语: 讲秦玺由蓝田玉制作而成，李斯书“受命于天，既寿永昌”。此处也是说蓝田玉的最早出处。章怀太子李贤在引此内容时，偏偏漏掉了书名，十分奇怪\n\n南朝刘宋人士裴松之在给在《三国志》做注时，发现《吴书》上关于传国玺上写的八个字与应劭、皇甫谧的记载最后两个字不同，他当场表示无法判断“且康”和“永昌”哪个是对的。他不知道？裴松之身处刘宋朝廷，他是有机会见到当朝的传国玺的，为何装糊涂？因为当时宋文帝手上的写的是”受天之命，皇帝寿昌“，他若提了就是在作大死，说南朝传国玺已不是秦汉那一枚了，所以只能装不知道。\n小方印刻8个字可能么？\n上海博物馆藏的汉代广汉大将军章，银质，方2.35厘米，高2厘米。能刻下6个字，对于在稍微大一点的王玺（2.8厘米），多容纳2个字也可能。\n\n什么字体？\n网上还有流传的鸟虫体的仿制照片，亦不可信\n“鸟虫体”不可太能，秦刚统一文字，使“小篆”成为当时法定通用的官方文字，不可能不采用官方文字。\n另秦汉印因为那时纸张印色还没发明，所以玺印都是阴刻。那张阳文鸟虫书做作，迥异于传世青铜器，玺印清秀神逸的风格。\n弄丢又找到\n它经常被弄丢，又莫名其妙被神奇找到，有人说其实他每次找到都是有人造了个假的。在西晋后出现好几方传国玺，做假已明着来。\n\n五胡乱华前，传国玺虽经过几次丢失，但都在数年内找回，那些见过玉玺的内官宫人还尚在，能辨别真伪。而从西晋灭亡衣冠南渡后，长安洛阳成为废墟，侨居江南的东晋人恐怕都没见过原货，无法鉴别。北魏为了说明自己正统性，也谎称在邺城佛像后发现了传国玺，还同时发现两枚，真是各种赝品层出不穷。\n\n流传比较广的说法是后唐末帝李从珂在洛阳自焚后，玺已下落不明（玉内部结构并不算稳定，遇高温会膨胀，容易破碎）。李从珂从隋唐继承下来的玉玺也是来历不明的，往前追溯，是从东晋从冉魏手中获得，而玉玺上文字跟《后汉书》记载不同，当时多份玉玺出现的记载也相互矛盾（东晋，前秦，后秦，北魏，北齐都自称有传国玺）。\n南朝有两枚玉玺已经够乱了，北朝又出现了新的玉玺。北魏太武帝灭佛期间，从邺城被捣毁的佛像中发现两枚玉玺，刻字确实是&quot;受命于天，既寿永昌&quot;。但其中一枚又多刻了一句话：魏所受汉传国玺。\n这两个也是假的，因为如果真玺在手，何必要造假呢？就算造假也没有把两个放在一起的道理。多出的那句：魏所受汉传国玺，看起来也有些画蛇添足，因为以往的史书根本没提过曹丕乱刻乱画一事。\n真相最可能是什么？\n\n要么根本就没有六玺之外的传国“吉语玺”，因为此重要物件在《史记》中毫无记载，最早的痕迹都出自东汉，属于汉代自己创作的。\n要么秦始皇在“六玺”之外确实刻过另一枚玺，但那只不过是普通的“吉语玺”，随身佩带以趋吉避邪，不具有权力象征的意义。这枚玺后来被汉高祖刘邦所得。\n\n之所以受到历代皇帝的推崇，被尊为“传国玺”，与汉代“符命”、“谶纬”学说的发展有着密切关系。\n真正的传国玉玺（秦玺），大概率在汉末董卓之乱时已经丢失。孙坚在井中得玺太过神异，不真实。魏晋南北朝都伪造玉玺，以明正统。\n\n如果像《三国演义》描述的中平六年（189年）的那场十常侍动乱中丢失的说法（汉少帝夜出北宫避难，仓促间将传国玺留在宫内，待到返回后，传国玉玺已经不知所终），首先正史未提及传国玺当时不见的事，且《献帝起居注》记载“天子从河上还，得六玉玺于阁上”。按《演义》的说法，没道理孙坚短暂驻留洛阳能找得到，而董卓呆了近两年却找不到（未提及去寻过），所以更可能丢失晚于十常侍之乱，在董卓之乱时。\n孙坚得玺被袁术夺走，当时离的最近的陈寿《三国志》袁术传里，丝毫没提，孙坚传里也没收录记载孙破虏得玺。这条线索还靠后世人写的书修这个逻辑漏洞。裴松之特别强调史书应“直书实录”，裴氏批评鱼豢《魏略》有“妄说”，谢承《后汉书》有“妄记”，对于乐资《山阳公载记》和袁暐《献帝春秋》，裴氏的批判尤为尖锐，说他们“轻弄翰墨，妄生异端”。\n汇总整理前面几本后汉书的范晔，与裴松之同时代，以年龄论，裴比范长二十岁，裴死更比范后六年。裴年终八十，长寿。\n\n曹丕逼迫汉献帝禅位，强令曹皇后交出“传国玺”，但由于此物已经遗失，于是只好重刻一枚。但后世朝代之所以没有一人对“传国玺”的真假提出过怀疑，是在于为了维护皇权的稳固。\n传国玉玺这个东西其实没有实际的意义，只能起到一个加成的作用。如果你坐了江山，这时候玉玺在手，说明你名正言顺。如果没有，那就差点意思了, 且是怀璧其罪了，这时候有还不如没有（如三国演义中的袁术）。\n而至于后来所谓“传国玺”的故事，不过是统治者为了证明“皇权神授”的地位而人为做出的品宣工作。\n十胜十败黑本初，阿瞒更拼值得赢\n袁绍囊括冀青幽并四州，收渔阳上谷精锐，控地千里，作为非家族正室所生没继承核心荣光和资产，却俨然要成为东汉末年最靓的仔，这样的人说其多谋而少决，说他愚蠢不会用人，或许也是史书马后炮的评论。白马将军公孙瓒都称赞其：袁绍之攻，似若神鬼。曹操整个少年时代，也是作为袁绍的马仔在洛阳混的，可以说袁绍是曹操前半生仰望的对象。肯定不止来自袁绍的出身，还来自其个人魅力。\n公元199年，袁绍和曹操直接开干一点问题没有，当时曹刚接收徐州豫州，只有兖州是自己的基本盘，打了这么多年，已经是一身虚汗。在袁绍角度看，我方现金流充足，对方刚花巨资吞并一些小公司，正是需要安抚吸纳的时候，此时不干更待何时？\n官渡之战时，曹老板很怵袁绍，只不过是被动迎战没得退路。自己内部不恐冀不会抛出什么狗屁十胜十败，真是这样能撺出北方那么大一摊子？郭嘉也知道，但必须这样去黑袁绍来安稳军心，侧面说明袁绍没选错时机。曹老板在官渡前线心态其实几乎崩溃，荀彧不断写信给曹老板让其坚持下去。曹操看着因高压和断粮即将崩溃的士气，跟士兵说，再给我15天，15天内我必破袁军。他心里肯定没底，但没有办法，否则士卒当场就会溃散。\n神奇就神奇在转机出现，许攸因为党争原因叛逃，见面就问曹老板你还有多少军粮？断言其连三日的军粮就没有，三国志记载曹操当时震惊的看着许攸，说明这消息可能袁绍已掌握。许攸说袁绍同样也缺粮，但有一批粮食即将运到袁军大营，现存放乌巢。这点上看袁绍的情报工作做的更好，曹断粮他知道，他断粮要靠人叛变曹老板才知道。还派过人刺杀曹操，差点得手，真是印证了似若神鬼这句评价。\n曹操即钦点5千精锐亲自带领，一路打着袁军的旗号向乌巢进发，这5000人军队哪怕被发现，或被咬住，曹操本人也是万分凶险，但曹操没有选择，因为弱者是没有选择的，他只能赌。摸到乌巢后，守军有1万，大将淳于琼坐镇。曹老板带领虎豹骑疯狂的杀向粮仓。袁绍反应也很快，立马派5000骑兵驰援乌巢，并派张郃带领大军直接攻向曹营。当袁绍援军距离还有10里时，哨兵来报，大将纷纷劝曹老板留下一半的人狙击，曹老板可清醒的很，等他们杀到我身后来再说。随即亲自带兵搏杀，大家看到大领导连命也不要了，纷纷那袋也别在裤腰带上，爆发出惊人战斗力，阵斩淳于琼。试想如果不是曹操亲自前来，为首大将看到前方受阻，后方敌军援军又快到了，会不会心里一崩溃就投降了，就算心理过硬，但就是打不下来怎么办？大概不是曹亲自来，派哪位大将来也达不到历史上的效果。曹军大营侧艰难顶住张郃进攻，迟迟攻不下，传来乌巢火起，淳于琼被斩，袁军士气当时一下就散了，张郃顶不住压力直接带着本部就投降曹军了。\n前方大将叛逃，后方粮仓起火，袁军士气此时脆弱如纸，瞬间崩溃，官渡之战以曹老板的胜利而告终。袁绍唯一做错的，就是不该派一个手下去攻击曹操大营，他亲自去，说不定袁军战斗力就会提升一个档次，大将也怎么可能叛逃。袁绍就败在关键时刻把自己豁出去的勇气，曹操相反知道自己如果输了，要么在乌巢死，要么逃回许昌，苟延残喘几个月也是死，这个时候不拼完全没有机会了。跟创业一个道理，既然选了，前期就不要想着休息偷懒假期，创业的本质就是在改命，命运感知到你想要更大的福报的时候，一定会给你压力，给你低谷，给你安排各种人和事，造成你情绪上的各种不稳定，老天在用这种方式测试你是否配得上你的欲望。欲戴王冠，必承其重。几乎不存在人在家中坐，好消息天上来的情况，你不把自己命豁出去，你的团队如何去拼命，只有你连命都不要了，你的团队才有可能为了你的事业而去努力。\n老板就是兄弟们跟我上，成功了大家分，失败了我自己死。有了这份觉悟，在加上运气加持，命才能改成。若你真身处一个必须的境遇，须记得创业和打工不同，要靠自己的披荆斩棘，生生开创出一条路出来，所以必然很难很累，考验的是你全方位的能力：个人的魅力，沟通能力，分钱的模式，你的气量，抗压能力。最后还有运气运气运气和时代的呼唤。\n谋士为何做不了一把手\n正常的谋士其实都是清醒的，有自知之明的，并不觉得自己的谋起了决定性作用。在历史的关键时刻，人格魅力，用人水平，组织能力，执行力乃至人心向背，天命所归，这些看起来较玄的东西都比『谋』重要。\n官渡之战的时候，曹袁双方的谋士集团都不差，双方的弱点和命脉都看到了，但关键时刻，只有曹操豁得出去，赌上数万人的生死存亡直扑乌巢，且全军上下都愿意跟着他拼命，这些本事胜过无数谋士，你思前想后谋划一晚上，不如一瞬间的当机立断。\n隋唐虎牢关之战的时候，李世民麾下谋士多次劝他班师免得腹背受敌，窦建德的谋士也多次劝窦不要去洛阳，应直捣长安，攻其必救。双方都有道理，结果双方都不听劝，然后李世民围点打援，3000 玄甲军突袭，破 10万众，一战擒双王。李密也是当谋士很清醒，当君主很糊涂，当君主需要把方案落实，这中间差距很大。\n淮海战役时，双方参谋不知对着地图推演多少遍，但那都是理想状态，真正的战场是瞬息万变的，教员直接放手让 502 去干，让其把小淮海打成大淮海，直接解决了敌人的主力集团，直到杜聿明全军覆没前，国民党大佬们上上下下围着地图在那谋呢，有用么。\n把历史连起来看，就发现谋重要，断更重要。这些历史上惊天动地的大人物，往往不是同时代最聪明考虑最周密的人，但他们往往是最能决断，最具人格魅力，最一呼百应，敌我皆服的人物。不下决心则已，一下决心，似乎英雄豪杰，百姓万民，天地乾坤都能站在他们那边。\n谋士是提供各种思路和可能性，然后把各种后果都摆在一把手面前，让一把手去决定。他们经常出上中下三策，这很合理，他们只出主意，不做决断，也不承担责任。但谋划只是大事的一部分，就算你算无遗策，大事还是需要无数人去执行，变数和意外太多了。越是环环相扣，精巧无比的谋算越容易出纰漏，这时候领袖的决断，各个部门的执行力，甚至是运气都比谋划更重要。\n\n三流的方案匹配一流的执行力的结果不一定比一流方案三流执行差，所以事情一定要去做，做才有成功的机会\n\n谋士不用去抉择，不用去执行，不用去选人用将，更不用去承担后果和责任。谋士可以甩锅，一把手甩不了锅。历史上的一把手往往具有常人没有的魅力，如刘邦的大事换成张良，萧何，韩信都不可能做成。一把手不需要瞻前顾后，算无遗策，面面俱到。他更需要在生死存亡的关头站出来，带领大家走出绝境，找到发展空间，赢得胜利。我行的道，你连尝试都不敢，春秋褒贬，一身当之，谋士们没有这个勇气担当，能扛得起这些才是历史的选择\n董卓也曾甘当牛马\n不经历永远不会在脸上长出横肉。董卓也曾甘当牛马为东汉南征北战。成年后在陇西郡担任官吏，胡人经常骚扰边境，他保境安民，破胡人斩获千计，羌人进犯，董卓斩其首领，俘虏万余人，功拜郎中，并将赏赐分给下属官吏和士兵。\n他镇守帝国边陲多年，一直是东汉最忠实的牛马。可黄巾起义的爆发改变了他的人生。184年6月，北中郎将卢植被罢免后，改拜董卓为东中郎将，接管冀州战区事务。董卓放弃围攻张角据守的广宗县，率主力北上攻打张宝据守的曲阳县，围攻两月不克，被罢免至廷尉受审，判“减死罪一等”，如果没有大赦天下，董卓可能会在囚牢中度过余生，这让已53岁的他明白，任劳任怨是应该的，错一次就能让你万劫不复。\n同年底，西凉叛乱，董又有了新机会，这次他决定为自己而活，185年3月，朝廷命左骑将军皇甫嵩领军出征，董卓拜中郎将为副，11月董大破叛军，斩数千，追击叛军时，6路大军只有董的这支全员班师屯兵于右扶风，因功封其为斄(lai)乡侯，封邑一千户，可这让董卓已提不起兴趣，他开始培养自己的势力。\n189年成为董真正蜕变的一年，2月灵帝病重，下诏拜董卓为并州牧，实则让他交出兵权，董接受而不交权，于是灵帝下诏责备董卓。最终董带了5000人向并州出发，但停留在河东郡就不走了，他是想观察洛阳局势，4月灵帝驾崩，大将军何进预诛杀宦官，而何太后不肯下诏。于是何进私召董卓领兵进京。这时董卓又有了前往洛阳的借口。\n宦官和外戚斗作一团，董明白东汉已经烂到根了，直接兵进河南尹，九月二十二日，何进被杀，袁绍等人直接闯宫诛杀宦官，董卓望见洛阳上空浓烟滚滚，才得知朝廷发生重大变故，于是下令进军在北邙山营救了皇帝刘辩和后来的献帝刘协。董入京后，一方面让自己的部队半夜出城，白天进城，造成他的兵马源源不断进驻洛阳的假象，另一方面极力收拢何进的部曲，如张辽和车骑将军何苗的部曲，又引诱吕布杀害丁原，吞并了并州人的军队，如此掌握了洛阳的所有军权，一时间成为帝国真正掌权人，皇帝成为了木偶，后宫成为了他的乐园，鱼肉百官，横征暴敛，这魔性难道不是这世道逼的？不是这减死罪一等吓的，不是牛马翻身后的狂欢吗？\n时代困兽吕奉先\n为什么曹操性格那么多变，为什么袁绍不听人建议，为什么袁术那么强又一塌糊涂，为什么孙权会那么分裂，为什么刘备一定要给二爷报仇。看个人不光从客观视角，还要从人的视角。史书是“结果归因”的产物，根据事情定义一个人，没办法，大家不是古人的蛔虫，很多想不通，都是视角问题。\n要争的就是一个公平\n出生在东汉帝国的边陲，家境寒微，没有举孝廉的条件，所以学习武艺勤练骑射。通过一次次的搏命中被丁原看重初入仕途。丁原对他很亲近，他以为这是老板的看重，可他错了，当何进让丁原推荐合适将领入京时，丁原没有将这入京看繁华的机会给他，而是给了比他年龄资历都小的张辽，张辽的家族是雁门当时显赫的家族。这让他明白公平只能靠自己争取，别人给的全是施舍。\n何进死后，洛阳龙盘虎踞，他需要进一步展示自己的机会，终于被董卓看中，拜中郎将，封都亭侯。可殊不知董卓也是让他在身边当个保安，190 年诸侯讨董，让吕布去挖皇陵，191 年抵御孙坚，让胡轸为大都护，他只为副手（骑督），情同父子只是让他干脏活累活的借口。董卓只信任他的西凉亲信，吕布这样的人怎配统领他的西凉铁骑。\n当被王允找到时，吕布知道这个世族出身的人对他以礼相待，又是在利用他，可不被他们利用，又如何自保呢，192 年诛董后被拜为奋威将军，假节，仪比三司，进封温侯，皇帝也会叫他一声将军，一时间成了帝国当世红人。这个看似的公平，也是拿命争抢过来的。\n困兽之斗的时代解读\n《三国志》评价吕布无战略规划，轻浮反复无常，只看眼前利益，每个点都有史料依据，客观看没一点问题，但换个角度看，吕布除了上过失信名单榜首这点比我们离谱外，简直就是百姓的历史[7]。我们谁有长远规划，谁不是得意忘形，谁不是只看眼前利益，我们谁不是吕布，谁不是放纵兽性。\n在社会里做困兽之斗，谁能喜怒不形于色跟刘备一样？谁能眼光长远跟孟德一般？谁能恬静淡泊跟孔明一样？谁能藏剑于心稳如化石跟司马老贼一样？下层人爱眼前也没办法。按网络上的新解：眼光放长远就是眼前没我，大局为重就是大局无我。咱们要是开路虎住别墅，小米新车一上市就来一辆，眼光可比西气东输的管道还长。\n吕布面临的局势是咋样的？三国前是两汉相对平和的四百年，和平久了长得像人的兽就比较多，还结成团伙。东汉是百年的王朝，千年的大族。两汉前就有很多大族，汉长期相对稳定，大族变得更多了，陈寿写三国，一说家世，二说才能。很多人一开头是西汉哪个名臣之后，东汉哪个太尉司徒之后，皇家有宦官外戚，朝堂有世家大族，民间有豪强地主，有些人土地多的连自己都记不住，能养起几千人吃穿，有人富的明着犯罪都不用躲风头。大族在朝堂互相推荐，地主在民间互相兼并。东汉末年的仕途，看得一是家世，二是名声，三是颜值，没准第五才是才能。所以曹操在当时的正向意义很大，袁绍就占了颜值高的光，东汉末年真到了该社会洗牌的时候了。\n但有吕布啥事啊，要不是他武艺杰出，牌桌上不会有他，他连陪跑的资格本就没有，因为武力高他才能在省里上班，因为武力高，董卓盯上他，王允盯上他。董卓死后，他在长安是坐不住的，大族朝臣谁买他账啊，要家世没家世，要名声名声毁了，文官看不上他，武将恨他，打了一架，他成了流浪军。袁绍要杀他，袁术讨厌他，没人疼爱，陈宫盯上了他，后来跟曹操打了三个月军粮尽了，虎落平阳被犬欺连一个县里的李进他都打不赢，而后跑到徐州，又被曹操袁术盯上。说好听点驰骋中原，不好听点一个打手。\n曹操给官打袁术，袁术给粮打刘备，曹操有政治，刘备有人望，袁术有兵马，吕布陷入了代理人战争，一个在兖州饿得死去活来的集团，没办法，他需要那些官位粮草，曹操有饭吃时，眼光看得长远，逼急了也得看眼前利益，就像很多人需要窝窝头不需要长远机会一样，你和一些人说AI是风口，新能源是未来有屁用，他吃了上顿下顿还要去赊账，哪能顾得了那么长远。\n吕布一生无一例外是被人摆布，困兽之斗。他对朝堂有功，对袁家有恩，虽不是他的主观本心，也是客观存在。唯物史观喷他没问题，也可以说他世俗，牌桌上的下等人，心性上的普通人，品格上的差等人，个人史观也没问题，但还是应以唯物为主，否则易陷入唯心主义和虚无主义。然而最后最重要的还是以吕布为原型，创造了一个头戴束发紫金冠，身披西蜀红锦袍，手持方天，马踏中原的经典艺术形象，这种过程快乐更是读者喜闻乐见的。\n参考\n1.古诗文网 英雄记 ↩2.关于吕布的年龄 ↩3.汉书-元后传 ↩4.故宫博物院 宝玺源流 ↩5.新浪新闻 公元420年代，他为何要为《三国志》作注？ ↩6.搜狐 盘点历代后勤兵比例 ↩7.抖音-以古为镜老汪 吕布，世俗里的困兽 ↩","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"三国台词如饮美酒","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E5%8F%B0%E8%AF%8D%E5%A6%82%E9%A5%AE%E7%BE%8E%E9%85%92.html","content":"听老版三国的台词，如饮美酒。网上的片段传播的很多，故听到这些台词很有画面感。文学性，演员的表演节奏也相得益彰，摘录一些，开心饮之。\n本初高光\n\n袁本初：当今，朝廷初定，召尔等入京，以为辅佐天子安定庶民。而你，却几次三番，妄议废嫡长而立庶，岂不是蓄意谋反吗？\n董仲颖：天下事在我，我今为之，谁敢不从？\n袁：哼，天下之事在皇帝，在诸位忠臣，你，只不过是一篡逆之辈，又待怎样？\n董：尔要试试我宝剑是否锋利吗？\n袁：我剑也未尝不利！\n\n真实的历史是二人私聊的，当场袁绍的确表达不同意见，后袁为避反目旋即离开洛阳。对话定不如演义般剑拔弩张。\n\n燕雀鸿鹄\n\n\n曹孟德：燕雀安知鸿鹄之志。\n诸葛亮：鸿鹄之志岂燕雀能知？\n三让徐州\n\n刘玄德：公以备为何人？圣人云：“自古皆有死，人无信不立。”备借得到人马借不到人马，都必将亲至。\n煮酒论英雄\n曹孟德：放今春深，龙趁势变化，犹如人得志而纵横四海，龙之为物可比世之英雄，玄德久历四方必知当世英雄，请试为操言之。\n…\n备：淮南袁术兵粮足备，可谓英雄？\n曹：冢中枯骨耳，我早晚必擒之\n备：河北袁绍四世三公，今虎踞冀州之地，部下能仕者极多，可谓英雄？\n曹：袁绍色厉胆薄，好谋无断，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，非英雄也。\n评袁绍：色厉胆薄，好谋无断，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，非英雄也。\n…\n备：益州刘季玉可谓英雄也？\n曹：刘璋虽为宗室不过守门之犬，何足英雄也\n备：那张绣张鲁韩遂等辈如何？\n曹：此等碌碌小人何足挂齿\n备：舍此之外，备实不知\n曹：夫英雄者，胸怀大志，腹有良策，有包藏宇宙之机，吞吐天地之志也！\n备：谁可当之？\n曹：今天下英雄，惟使君与操耳。\n丈夫之辞\n\n吕奉先：大丈夫生居天地之间，岂能郁郁久居人下！\n邓(艾)士载：想我幼年丧父，年方十二，为农家放牛，奉养老母，发奋攻读，才有今日。我以牧牛为生，自然爱惜牲畜，揣情度理，近乎人情，不为辱也！出身寒微，不是耻辱；能屈能伸，方为丈夫！\n败走麦城\n\n关云长：孙权贼子，怎能与我兄汉中王相提并论。我乃解良一武夫，蒙我主以兄弟相待，桃园结义三十余年，情同手足，从不相移。汉中王委我以大任，义重如山。我堂堂丈夫，焉能背义投敌？哼！城若破，有死而已。玉可碎而不可改其白，竹可焚而不可毁其节。身虽死，名可垂于竹帛也，又何惧哉！\n舌战群儒\n\n诸葛亮：子山兄以为苏秦，张仪仅仅是说客吗？岂不知他二人是真豪杰也！苏秦佩六国相印，张仪两次为秦国宰相。二人皆有匡扶国家之大智大勇，非比那欺弱怕强，苟安避祸之人。君等未见曹操一兵一卒，便闻风丧胆，畏惧请降，如此还敢嘲笑苏秦、张仪吗？\n诸葛亮：薛敬文，何出此无父无君之言！人生天地之间，以忠孝为立身之本。今曹操祖宗为汉臣、食汉禄，子孙不思报效，反怀篡逆之心！不是汉贼，又是什么？此等国贼，本应天下共讨之，天下共诛之。而公等身为汉臣，却在此为曹贼张目，岂不是无君无父之人？此辈不足与语，请勿复言！\n诸葛亮：我从不做寻章摘句，引经据典的学问，那是迂腐书呆子们的事情，与兴邦立业毫无关系。自古以来的大贤们，也未必治什么经典。商汤的宰相尹伊，当初不过是个耕地的奴隶，兴周的姜子牙曾作渭水垂钓之渔夫，之于后世张良、陈平之辈，皆有匡扶宇宙之才，也没听说他们治什么经典。可叹如今书生们张口经典，闭口古训，整日忙碌于笔砚之间，我看这些人恐怕只会数黑论黄（过度计较琐碎细节，死守书本教条，空谈理论），舞文弄墨而已。\n诸葛亮：既然说起儒者，可知道儒者有君子、小人之别么？君子之儒，忠君爱国，守公正，斥邪恶，既能恩泽于当世，又可流芳于后世。而小人之儒则不同，专工笔墨文章，只会雕虫小技，可谓青春作赋，皓首穷经，**笔下虽有千言，而胸中实无一策！**试看杨雄，才华横溢，修辞作赋名盖一时。然而奸臣王莽篡权，他不顾廉耻，屈膝投靠，最后落得个跳楼自杀的下场。此等小人之儒，就是日赋万言，又有什么可取之处呢？\n王朗之死\n诸葛亮：你世居东海之滨，初举孝廉入仕，理当匡君辅国，安汉兴刘，何须反助逆贼同谋篡位。罪恶深重，天地不容！\n诸葛亮：二臣贼子，你枉活七十有六，一生未立寸功，只会摇唇鼓舌，助曹为虐。一条断脊之犬，还敢在我军阵前狺狺狂吠。我，从未见过如此厚颜无耻之人。\n司马复出\n司马(昭)子上：父亲，学成文武艺，献与帝王家。而今帝王不用，还练它何来呀？\n司马仲达：一派胡言！你等年纪轻轻，一遇挫折，便松散懈怠，日后怎成大器？你等可知那司徒王朗，七十六岁还任军师出征，此正如曹公所云，老骥伏枥，志在千里，烈士暮年，壮心不已！休得放肆！\n司马仲达：我笑那王朗，虽称满腹经纶，却是鸡肠鼠肚，连几句恶语都容它不下，活该有此下场。你等要记住，为人者，有大度，成大器也！\n司马昭：父亲，赞他是你，咒他也是你，儿不知孰去孰从？\n司马仲达：夫处世之道，亦即应变之术，岂可偏执一端？用兵之道亦然如此，皆贵在随机应变。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["影视"]},{"title":"三观关系与人生动机","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%82%E4%B8%8E%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA.html","content":"\n\n落笔写这篇文章，首先是前天增补OpenAI公司核心价值观的变动议论，昨天三两粉晚餐时间又碰到一位好利来烘焙小姐姐来深圳出差考察市场，同桌论及同行对比时，快速提到她们超然的企业文化–传递爱，brain wash的很成功。如此常见，推司及人，值得整理下。\n\n三观这个词被大家提起很多，虽然常挂在嘴上，但这几个概念都比较抽象，当你需要与人探讨时候，最好还是能分得清，拎得明比较好。为何提出三个概念，谁是鸡谁是蛋？在工作中用得着这么深刻的概念么？\n三观\n价值观:善\n我们用来 在各种可能目标中 选择自己合意目标 的准则，用以评价人、事、物的主观标准。简化点来说，就是你认为怎么做是对的（好坏对错的判断系统，哲学门类是价值论）。\n它是世界观的核心，是驱使人们行为的内部动力。\n价值观在三观中占核心地位，代际之间的价值观有差异，故价值观跟成长经历有关，重中之重是原生家庭。\n\n有人会认同知识改变命运，有人会认为这是无用论。\n有人会觉得健康很重要，有的人认为财富才是最重要的\n\n\n价值观在非个体\n价值观很多时候是一个combo体（是一组排序），多不是一个词能概括表达，如社会主义核心价值观就整了一组词。把国家比作企业的话，价值观可看作是团队共同的认知，可以是目标，也可以是结果（最佳实践的事后总结），也可以是二者的混合体 – 旨在降低内部运行管理成本。\n\n一神教强调信仰也是为了核心价值，我国宗教信仰不强但有其它核心价值在朝在野形成共识，在新中国之前是&quot;三纲五常&quot;，那是适应小农经济的核心价值。在改革开放之前，是“阶级斗争”，这是适应计划经济的核心价值。改革开放之后，适应计划经济之后，核心价值应该是“拜金主义”。\n\n价值观在个体\n个体价值观不会体现出与生活的云泥之别，源于成长经历的凝练，与生活长期撕裂的价值观个体迟早要自爆掉。价值观只有经历负面强刺激才能变动。\n个体价值观聚焦自己，不像利益共同体价值观，要求全面，会呈现出一种构型占主导，对应工作于认知系统的快速反应部分。\n\n《思考，快与慢》一书将我们的认知系统划分为两个部分\n\n系统1：反应快速，依赖直觉，几乎不需要我们努力就能完成任务\n系统2：懒惰，工作起来需要我们集中注意力，但它理性，精确\n\n\n从心理学家谢洛姆·施瓦茨（Shalon Schwartz）的角度，其拆分了10种价值观，可以借他的角度理解一下不同人群的特征。\n\n\n\n价值观\n界定\n\n\n\n\n成就\n符合社会标准的个人成功（成功，能力，抱负)\n\n\n慈善\n关注周边人的状态（能帮助他人的，正直，原谅，爱情等）\n\n\n守规\n减少对社会或他人有害的行动，遵守规则（有礼貌，恭敬，节制）\n\n\n享乐主义\n为自己的快乐、取得快感满足\n\n\n权力\n取得较高社会地位或控制他人的力量（力量，权威，财富，知名度）\n\n\n安全\n在社会状况，人机关系，日常生活中追求平静与和谐（社会秩序，家人安全，健康，归属感等）\n\n\n自我取向\n独立的思考和行动（创意，好奇心，自由，独立等）\n\n\n刺激\n使人高兴或有新鲜感的事情，追求挑战（多样性，高兴，挑战等）\n\n\n传统\n尊重并遵守文化或宗教的规矩（虔诚，对传统的尊敬等）\n\n\n普遍性\n珍惜所有人类和自然，并对他们理解、宽容、感谢，尊重（重视环境，社会正义，平等，世界和平和和谐）\n\n\n\n鄙人觉得 九型人格 也能从侧面体系化的解释价值观的差异。\n\n\n\n九型人格\n行为动机\n\n\n\n\n理想崇高者（完美型）\n不能犯错\n\n\n古道热肠者（助人型）\n不能自私\n\n\n成功追求者（事业型）\n不能丢脸\n\n\n个人风格者（自我型）\n不能一样\n\n\n博学多闻者（理智型）\n不能没用\n\n\n谨慎忠诚者（疑惑型）\n不能无备\n\n\n勇于创新者（活跃型）\n不能受限\n\n\n天生领导者（领袖型）\n不能被欺\n\n\n向往和平者（和平型）\n不能孤立\n\n\n\n世界观:真\n对世界总的根本的看法 (观察，感受，体验世界的系统化结果，哲学门类是认识论)，简单点来说，你与多大的世界发生关系 。受所见所闻动态影响，今天学了一个公式，读了一本书，结交一个有智慧的朋友，都可能会丰富和扩大你的世界观。\n分两个维度\n\n广度：你去过多少地方，遇见过多少人，碰到过多少事，读过多少书？\n深度：最终直指人性，映照外部世界的本质。\n\n\n一辈子在一个地方打转的人，话题的确会比较鸡毛蒜皮，这在老一辈的身上体现的较为明显，换种角度可解释为上一辈的世界观比较小。\n\n人生观:美\n对人类生存的目的，价值和意义的看法，由价值观和世界观决定。读了那么多书，走了那么多路，你的梦想是什么，要成为怎样的人？（人生的选择和规划，哲学门类是方法论）\n人生动机\n三观概念太抽象，还需将其具象化的应用起来，才真有解读他的意义，让我们从动机论的角度来照它一照。\n内在需求：成就动机（价值观）\n\n涵盖一生，从价值观形成到走入坟墓。它的内涵是对未来成功的判断标准（七老八十回顾人生认为人生成功），一个人不限一种，占主导的影响你的选择。是一个人终身所追求的目标，也决定职业动机的出发点\n前三种在人群中是大比例，后三种是小比例\n\n分型\n\n钱\n权：组织权威，及权力（职位）\n术（专业，做自己想做的事）\n名：名气。名气有大小，名声(望)有好坏，当前的时代，名气和名声可以负相关。一个人可以名气不大，但好名声\n地位（非权力型成就，是非组织权威，威望/声誉，如族长辈）\n闲（是平衡，主妇的完美生活，可能覆盖近1/3的女性）\n\n如何识别一个人的成就动机？\n\n你身边哪些同学/朋友 混得好？\n期待的未来10/20年的生活状态，选择哪个年份量，跟被问者的年龄有关。一般人的职业顶峰年纪男的在50岁，女的到45岁，过去了就没啥上升戏了。所以加上年份不超过上面的年龄限为佳\n\n\n还可以借助对第三者或其它事件的评价，来获取他内心的标准\n\n内在需求：职业动机（职业成长动力）\n\n从入职场到退休。是一个人在职业中驱动自身成长的内在动力，界定了其职业目标。\n\n核心就一个问题，从长远角度看，人为什么工作？ 本质上取决于一个人的价值观，自然匹配上自身的成长欲望的职业是最合适的。\n分型\n\n\n权力动机\n获取权力，典型者在意运用权力本身，而非用权力所能成就的事情。对能否职位上升非常在意。\n\n\n影响力动机\n影响他人的欲望，未必在意权力获取，会很希望用自己的知识，思想，资源影响和改变他人，对是否带来影响他人的机会很在意\n\n\n亲和动机\n获取他人赞许的欲望，在意他人\n\n\n成就动机\n实现事业目标的欲望\n\n\n识别职业动机的问题\n你认为最成功的三个人是谁？ 三个就足够，多了容易实质重复。\n\n此与混的好不好语义上有差别，混的好不好可以生活工作一起谈，所以更适合成就动机\n\n成就动机和职业动机的映射矩阵\n\n\n\n成就动机\n职业动机\n\n\n\n\n权\n权力动机\n\n\n钱、术\n成就动机\n\n\n（好的）名\n亲和动机\n\n\n地位\n影响力动机\n\n\n闲\nN/A\n\n\n\n其它普遍性动机\n\n自主权：每个人都想要掌控自己的生活\n专精：每个人都希望自己在某件事情上能越做越好\n人际关系：每个人都想要归属感\n目标：都希望自己成为一个伟大群体的一员\n\n外在需求：工作动机\n\n工作动机是一个人短期的需求，除了受成就动机、职业动机影响外，还与候选人当时的境况有关\n\n排名不分先后：职业安全感（“避险”）、薪酬、福利、发展空间（个人成长）、专业对口，职位本身（尊重）、公司文化、兴趣、工作地点、交通、加班、心理安全（找老乡）、环境、出差、出国、培训、公司品牌、公司性质、上班时间、住宿、个人崇拜、找朋友、过渡、“潜伏”、户口…\n三类动机关系图\n---\ntitle: \"三类动机关系图\"\n---\ngitGraph\n   commit id:\"出生\"\n   commit id:\"价值观定型\"\n   branch \"成就动机\"\n   commit id:\"进入职场\"\n   branch \"职业动机\"\n   commit id:\"找工作\"\n   branch \"工作动机\"\n   commit id:\"工作1\"\n   checkout \"职业动机\"\n   merge \"工作动机\"\n   checkout \"工作动机\"\n   commit id:\"工作2\"\n   checkout \"职业动机\"\n   merge \"工作动机\"\n   checkout \"成就动机\"\n   merge \"职业动机\"\n   commit id:\"退休\"\n   checkout main\n   merge \"成就动机\"\n   commit id:\"挂掉\"\n商业组织的挑战\n训练人们停止聚焦于自己，开始聚焦于团队\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"世界神话体系简观","url":"/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D.html","content":"\n希腊\n特点：关系乱，必须得各论各的叫。乱的原因是什么呢？因为他们受到了埃及神话的影响，埃及神话的特点是将统治埃及的国王塑造成是天神的血脉，这是法老维持统治的根本，如果你法老和普通人婚配，那不就稀释了体内天神的血液么，所以在埃及人看来，王室就应该内部婚配。\n古希腊的贵族和城主也学习了『血统至上』的观念，所以和妻子结婚就是为了应付工作，和情人偷吃才算是找到真爱，也就不难理解后来的欧洲王室为什么有这么高的畸形率和夭折率了，一是为了证明自己高贵的血统，二是通过这个血统来维护权力。\n\n普拉图时期，他又将古希腊的爱情观发展到一个新高度，叫柏拉图式的爱情，他认为异性之间的爱情都源自于人类自身的特性，这种感情没有智慧，没有经过理性的思考，所以经受不住时间的考验。而相反同性之间的感情则要三思而行，这样的感情才能更能体现出人类的智慧。所以在当时的贵族看来，你结婚了不等于你恋爱了，你找了情人不等于你找到了真爱，但是男情人就不一般了，是最顶级的政治正确，哈哈。所以不管是希腊城主，还是罗马贵族，都有着数不清的女性伴侣，和一个代表智慧的同性伴侣，最典型的就是罗马皇帝尼禄。\n希腊神话受到了埃及神话的影响，那埃及神话就没那么乱呢，因为埃及只有一个法老，希腊却是个城邦制国家，有大量的城主，在后来不断的吞并和伐交中，天神血脉开始变得越来越混乱，越来越抽象。希腊神话就是希腊社会的翻版，所以希腊诸神也有着和人类一样的情感，一样的欲望，人类社会的苦难来自于哪？根本原因就来自于人性，所以希腊神话就呈现出一种特殊的悲剧色彩，人类只要遵循自己最自然淳朴的本性，就会无意间导致悲剧的出现，这就是我们常说的世事无常，也是希腊混乱的神话背后想表达的核心观念。\n北欧\n北欧神话同样以悲剧为核心，悲剧的体现就是诸神黄昏，从整个北欧神界诞生开始，就同时出现诸神黄昏的预言，也就是神界注定要被摧毁，整个北欧神话都是为了阻止这个诸神黄昏。但想要阻止，就要知道这个事件可能会怎么发生，那就是预言。所以北欧神话的大部分内容基本上就是主神奥丁通过和一位女性结合从而得知了一部分预言，之后再通过这个预言和另一名女性结合，生下能阻止灾难的预言之子，后来因为这个预言不太准确，所以他要再预言，再繁衍，就这样重复不断的循环，为了拯救整个神界，奥丁先后与大量女神，巨人，女巫，以及人类女性都被迫发展出了亲密的关系，但最后还是不能阻止灾难的发生。\n这就体现出了北欧神话的核心观念，宿命和悲剧。北欧包括今天的挪威、瑞典、丹麦、冰岛、以及芬兰的部分地区，这里有着极端的气候和格外频繁的自然灾害，面对无法预测的气候变化，北欧人对于自然的无力感，就逐渐塑造了他们对于命运的看法，简单来看，就是人们必然要受到自然的掌控，而因为自然的变化无常，这个掌控的结局必然是个悲剧，人要活着，但宿命是悲剧的，于是该怎么活，就成了一个关键问题。在北欧神话中有个叫英灵殿的说法，意思就是在战场上英勇牺牲的战士们，都会去到天上的英灵神殿，那里有吃不完的食物、酒水，去到这里的唯一条件就是成为战士，死在战场上，也就塑造了一种特殊的英雄文化。\n印度\n核心就是种姓制度，影响印度、尼泊尔、不丹、及东南亚的部分地区，种姓制度是作为入侵者的雅利安人为了统治印度当地的达罗毗荼人，创立的一套社会分层制度，从创立开始就解决了私有制文明的一大难题，就是凭什么你站在我头上，你凭什么是贵族。\n雅利安人说这是由天神决定，由出生决定，我知道你很急，但你先别急，每个人都有自己的社会职责。只要好好的吃苦，完成自己的职责，积攒业力，也有可能在几百年后投胎成一个高种姓的人。雅利安人为达利特留下一个上升方法，但这个方法却是投胎。印度历史上不少刹帝利都通过武力把自己变成了婆罗门，有不少吠舍通过捐赠把自己变成了婆罗门，这些人都没有好好投胎，凭什么就能成为高种姓？雅利安人又搞出一个苦修的概念。在印度神话中，如果一个人能狠狠的苦修，那就可能得到主神的赐福，或者得到诅咒他人的能力，从而在今生成为更高的种姓，所以人家不是没有经过投胎，而是经过了狠狠的苦修。怎么苦修才能得到赐福呢，那就是婆罗门说了算了。所以侵略者可以通过苦修的缺口，得到高种姓，然后再手牵手一起来统治达利特。\n种姓制度的巧妙，不在于他的理论，而是在于这个社会分层的制度，种姓内部还要相互竞争，按照地域按照职位还有3000 多个次种姓，内部还有大量的歧视，只有同种姓之间才会有竞争，根本就不可能联合起来。\n日本\n日本神话受到中国的影响，日本最早的神话古籍《日本书纪》和《古事记》基本都是用汉字编写。日本神话从创立之初，就背负一项重要任务，就是将日本所有神灵和信仰全都融合起来，然后再说明天皇对这些神灵有绝对的统治权。\n日本神话有两大特点：第一个是八百万神，日本神话几乎每时每刻都在造神，任何事件都可以造神，哭、吐、拉都能造神，真是映照了这个国度崇尚生育的观念（古代日本朝廷为了增加人口，就鼓励男子在夜晚主动爬进女子闺房，为提升人口事业添砖加瓦）。第二个特点是君权神授，天皇的本意是将自己塑造成神的化身，再以此掌控人间的实权。结果搞得不伦不类，天皇成直接下凡的天帝，二战结束还要颁布一个《人间宣言》，也是离谱。\n待读参考\n1.gcores.com 世界神话体系大盘点 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"业务思维","url":"/%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n业务思维\n\n一种解决问题的思维方式，需要考虑的更加全面。相较于产品思维，更锚定于长链条服务，少一些打造的味道（成瘾性产品的打造甚至贯穿有针对人性不完美的利用挖掘）。换句话说，业务思维就是我要解决问题\n\n结果导向\n\n我需要的结果如何衡量，如何达成？\n达成这个结果需如何拆解指标，建立什么机制进行追踪？\n\n全局思维\n\n市场需要什么？\n我的关系和资源\n我的客户是谁，我解决了什么痛点，他们为什么付钱？\n我需要什么平台能力，谁来帮我开发？\n需要哪些流程，标准化什么动作，构建什么运营机制？\n\n\n成本思维\n\n\n我的成本结构，盈利模式是什么？\n\n\n如何提升效率？\n\n\n业务理解\n\n先对业务产生兴趣，好奇心是所有学习推动的动力\n了解业务运作逻辑：从组织架构，角色分工，业务流程开始\n理解业务核心指标，达成路径\n\n打造产品路上的陷阱\npie title top10创业陷阱\n   \"做自嗨之物 building something nobody wants\": 300\n   \"雇人抠唆 hiring poorly \": 153\n   \"不专注 Lack of focus\" : 112\n   \"营销失败 Fail to execute sales & marketing\":98\n   \"合伙内讧 Not having the right co-founders\":66\n   \"迷失客户 Chasing investors,not customers\":45\n   \"现金枯竭 Not making sure you have enough money\":28\n   \"花钱太快 Spending too much money\":18\n   \"孤立无援 Failing to ask for help\":12\n   \"忽略媒体 Ingoring social media\":6\n\n参照于 领英一篇文章 Top 10 Startup Mistakes\n\n结语\n回到技术人员身份，不论想成为哪层架构师，架构师同学都需要更全面的学习，深入的思考，模型化思考业务和系统的运作，以在专业道路上持续提升，做出更多成绩实现自我价值\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"东亚未发展有魅力的生活方式","url":"/%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E6%9C%AA%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%89%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n以不在东亚圈却同属汉文化圈的新加坡做例：新加坡虽然富，但没有打造出一种令人神往的生活方式。\n欧洲\n欧洲以瑞士为代表，不仅是富裕，也是一种生活方式，景色美，铁路房屋景点融合很好，工作强度也低，生活氛围轻松，这就对在东亚高强度生活的人产生了吸引力，若中国以后发展到瑞士的水平，相信大家都是高兴的。\n\n北美和澳洲\n北美、澳洲也不仅仅是富裕，也是一种生活方式。广袤的领土，宽阔的道路，大house，不用一家人生活在逼仄的空间。从纽约的种族熔炉，到各种体育赛事，好莱坞、休斯顿、迈阿密、拉斯维加斯，环球影城，迪士尼，也是有各种不同的生活方式\n东亚文明区\n东亚文明的地区从农村到城市是有一个跃升，但城市化后，发展出的特色并不令人神往：\n\n地狱高考，大公司垄断优质工作机会\n996高强度\n高房价，公寓楼，人口密度高度集中\n\n\n日韩新，港澳台人均是中国大陆几倍，但觉得和北上深没什么太大区别，不是一种新风格，仅是收入水平的提高而已。\n更有甚者，东亚发达地区都有明显的老人工作现象，餐厅，出租车等，前景比中国大陆还要糟糕，内地老人还可以跳广场舞。\n结语\n\n成都连续 15 年蝉联中国最具幸福感城市榜首，人文气息与市井气息交织，一半诗意一半烟火，一直是这座城市独特的生活美学。\n\n生活方式有其魅力，同在国内，成都，长沙，三亚，大理丽江就对游客有吸引力，同在欧洲，巴黎吸引力就更强。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"东亚英语发音差异","url":"/%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD%E5%8F%91%E9%9F%B3%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n一则笑话开头：\n日本人：Are you ready？（r u lady）英国人：I’m a man\n随着各类电影及视频类节目的增多，大家都了解到我们的东亚邻居，在英语表达上好似很不正宗，这成为了一个很有意思的问题，值得探究一下\n原因简究\n简略看了几则说法，大致有两大原因，外来词干扰和发音体系的不匹配，第二项则是根本原因\n日常外来词的干扰\n在中文中英语外来词汇是专造的，不像日韩外来词直接尝试用本国发音来模拟，本国发音体系又不够丰富，导致蹩脚的发音过早荼毒国民或小孩子，在学习正式的英语时，反倒需费力纠正，得不偿失。中国人学习英语时，绝对不会用纯中式发音来念词（咖啡，沙发，威士忌，引擎），而日本人如果不是意识到自己必须要说‘正宗’英文了（电视台主播去采访外国人），他们都懒得切换成英式发音。\n在日本这种社会中，你显摆正宗发音，真会被周围的人鄙视，所以他们更喜欢随大流演绎蹩脚的风格\n发音体系的不匹配\n\n另外，中文的发音系统中，有23种辅音（声母表），英文中有24种，数量不是最重要的，关键是它们的发音非常像。例如吃（chi）和教堂（church）的ch发音是很像的。这使得英文中的辅音相对中国学生来说更简单。\n\n声母和辅音是两个不同的概念，声母是从分析音节结构的角度划分出来的，辅音是从分析音素（辅音+元音）性质的角度提出来的。与元音相比，辅音的主要特征是：气流在发音器官中受到一定程度的阻碍或阻塞，发音器官参与节制气流的部分肌肉紧张。\n声母是由辅音充当的，但辅音并不都是声母。如光这个音节中的ang中的ng，单看的话是辅音，但它不是声母。\n闭音节（又称急煞音节）：以一个或几个辅音字母（r除外）结尾而中间只有一个元音音素的音节。闭音节结构可分为元音+辅音，元音+辅音+辅音\n\n看看韩语\n韩语中只有19种辅音，欠缺f、sh、v、ch、tr 这些辅音发音，除去这些，韩语中L、R两个发音用一个字母标记代替，使得其发音经常混淆。例如call能发生car的音，呜呼哀哉，导致他们在学习英语时有些懵逼。\n日语更加夸张\n日语也缺少了几个重要的辅音发音，例如f、sh、v，跟韩语一样，只有一种辅音发音来同时标注L和R的发音。\n可能不那么准确地简单点来说，日语没有r这个音，也没有ŋ这个鼻音，导致他们把road念成lo-do，把timing念成taimingu\n加之他们的语言中都是元音结尾的绝对开音节，没有辅音结尾的闭音节，从而导致他们会把set念成seto，big念成bigu\n其实现代汉语普通话也没有辅音结尾的闭音节（这句话存疑，很多韵母也符合辅音结尾，也符合闭音节结构），这点大家是难兄难弟，但是中国方言众多，在保留入声的诸多南方方言里就有闭音节，例如粤语就保留了p-t-k结尾的入声\n最后日语里没有卷舌音，也就是∫、t∫、ʒ、dʒ这种，导致他们把she念成xi，shadow念成syadou\n普通话有卷舌音，不过发音方式跟英语不完全一样，相比日文还是更接近英语的发音，毕竟有和没有还是很大差别。\n普通话也不是无缺憾\n其余一些发音缺陷，汉语普通话也有，例如普通话里没有æ，中国会把rap更容易念成rua普，而日本人会念成拉普。念成拉普是因为没有r，没有æ，没有闭音节辅音p只有pu这个元音结尾。念成rua普，是因为有r，没有æ，没有闭音节辅音p，只有pu这个元音结尾\n黏着语，屈折语，孤立语\n从语言学上分类不止这三位，但这三位是主流代表。屈折语代表是印欧语系诸语言；黏着语代表土耳其语，日语，韩语，维吾尔语；孤立语（分析语）的代表就是我们的汉语，受汉语影响最深的越南语也是。\n\n咱们汉语中的词序要求严格，没有词形（格）的变化，虚词十分重要；\n\n\n屈折语中通过（词根的）词形变化（时态，所有格，复数…）来区分不同的发音，继而表示不同的意义；\n\n\n黏着语词的前面和中间（是重心）不发生变化，只是词的尾部发生变化来表示不同意义（中间也有一些胶水助词）。\n\n英语虽然是曲折语，但是在被外来民族统治的过程中（受到 盖尔语–凯尔特人：乡村土著，古北欧语–维京海盗：沿海城市贸易据点，法语–征服者：上层社会 的巨大洗刷，虽然都是屈折语，但屈折方式差别太大，混合后屈折变简单 ），也杂具了很多孤立语的特性，如很多副词，of，about，所有格只剩了一个‘s，动词变位简化太多，取消了名词和形容词的性。相较而言，俄语，德语的屈折语特征更明显（事态，格，性，令人炫目）。也可以说屈折语是语法最复杂的，孤立语最为简单，所以受众面影响力最大，历史上兼容并包能力最强，历史也是佐证。\n汉语其实也有屈折语的一些特征，如登/升，开/启 都是主宾时的不同用字，历史上起始发音也是一点点区别；有些方言用一个鼻辅音表示小称，用声调变化表示完成体。黏着语的特征也有，如“了，着，过”这些语法标记，名词出现“子，儿，头”这些词缀。可谓没有绝对的形式，只是何为主体。\n为何有这些差别？个人浅薄的看法如下\n\n汉语的特立独行，与汉字有莫大的关系，世界上表意的文字，我们是一大家，其余的语言几乎都是拼音文字。\n在靠发音来进行意义说明的时候，必然要在读音上做很多变化。印欧片区的主导祖先，选择词的变化来促成发音变化准确传递意思。黏着语的主导祖先们，选择主体不动，在尾部叠加修饰来使得句子发音不同传递意思。\n你把你想成猩猩，哼哼哈嘿外加手势比划，有的动脑筋在面部扭曲上，阴阳怪调的扭曲发音。有的选择主发音不动，多加一些动作+哼哈在后面。一个把句子雕塑整容，一个把句子整长。\n\n表意字的优势过于强大（只有汉字，才能维持住大一统的历史和文化传承），孤立语为了适配文字，四声八调。\n随着游牧民族的融合，发音体系简化了，太多同音字，那么就要相较于古代汉语多出一些双字词，成语；\n配合简化的声调，加上增多的副词，仍能应对无论多么复杂的情况。\n现代的计算机语言也是一种分析语，用有限的指令互相搭配，忽略了指令的形式变化。这也是孤立语的生命力的趋势。\n兼聊一下我国的外语翻译\n通常翻译的准则\n专有名词（人名，地名）是要按照当地语言音译（个别因为历史传统的除外），大陆的翻译一直都是追本溯源派，这点上大家要有自信\nParis：巴黎（法语音译，要不就要念巴里斯）Rome:罗马（意大利语是Roma，音译为罗马）Germany：德国（从德语Deutschland音译的）Belarus：白俄罗斯（既是音译，也是意译）Greece: 希腊，希腊语音译的。Greece来自于拉丁语GraeciaTrump 特朗普，是因为它原本是德国姓，德语发音译过来就是特朗普，用英语确实是川普\nCaesar 翻译成凯撒（迦太基语大象的意思），而不是西撒。是因为我们是以拉丁文发音来翻译的（罗马音）。说个不一定那么准确的原因，中国因为贸易原因，接触西方文化比较早, 音译一直是以罗马音为基础的，再看两个差异例子，约翰/乔恩，德拉贡/拽根，是否觉得唾沫星子更有文化\n\n顺便说一下，尤利乌斯而非朱利乌斯是正确发音，古典拉丁没有j，只有iulius，后来有了j也发y的音\n\n我们的东亚邻居日本直到很晚也只能接触到大明和朝鲜，最早接触的西方文化是大英帝国，所以他们的舶来语是以英语为基础的，香港的殖民地身份也使得他们会以英语原声为基础进行音译，和大陆也不是一个音译体系\n英文与拉丁文的发音差异\n欧洲各国都对拉丁语的发音依照本国的发音规则做了演化，这也是我们看到一些翻译冲突的原因，当然拉丁文在种族冲撞的过程中，在吸收外来词的过程中，自己也发生了一些变化，太细节了，我也不是学语言的，去搬运解释搞复杂了，过犹不及。\n英文发音规则的一大特色是喜欢把辅音c（拉丁语中是/k/）软化为/s/，语言的软化是种族融合的常见特征，正所谓稀释。\n另一大特色是喜欢把重读的长元音发成单元音，例如双元音ae，在拉丁语中读音是/a/和/e/的组合，类似于英语lie的元音，但在英语特色的拉丁语发音中，重读的开音节ae，oe几乎都发了/i:/的音，例如Caesar，Oedipus（俄狄浦斯） /'i:-dɪ-pəs/，其实按照英文读音翻成“伊迪普斯”就和原来的读音相差太远了。类似的Pompey，在英文里读POMP-ee，但中文翻译“庞培”更加接近拉丁文的正确读音\n\n现代英语对拉丁语的读音有两套规则，在读拉丁语名言或短语时，通常用古典语音，\n但在读人名地名时，还是用传统的英语读音，个中原因还是因为使用频率太高\n\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["地理","语言"]},{"title":"中台的林子好热闹","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9E%97%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%BD%E7%83%AD%E9%97%B9.html","content":"\n中台战略\n10年之前，没人讲中台。第一次见到在电商行业的企业中，以前只讲前后台，讲平台，冒出来个中台几个意思。\n其实和平台化管理没什么区别。强调的是组织不断的业务/技术沉淀，比平台多讲一个敏捷（可运营），平台这个词历史包袱重，大家很讲边界。\n中台能力框架\n\n\n个人觉得能力聚合层提法奇怪，其实也就是小业务前台的一部分，非要用一些大词概念-编排，编排已经差不多成了容器化的云平台的专用词汇了\n\n大公司下的蛋\n没见小公司讲中台，大公司讲这个问题的动机是什么？\n组织是否存在重复建设和资源浪费？重复功能建设和维护带来重复投资，不利于业务的沉淀和持续发展，技术团队扩张增长不经济\nSo：如何沉淀企业核心竞争能力，更好的支撑新业务的发展？表面是系统，实际是业务能力被沉淀。\n怎么火起来的？\n\n悔创阿里JackMa，从他嘴里带出的新词\n\n2015年，jackma带领阿里众高管拜访芬兰移动游戏公司supercell，让其惊讶的是，创造税前利润15亿美元的公司只有不到200名员工（人均利润¥5000w，$750w）。其公司的系统支持小团队快速研发游戏，快速试错。被震撼，阿里就开始奔这个方向上去了。\n各说各话，大道至简\n\n都有自己的认识和宣传，如前所言，另一种平台化建设策略\n比较同意thoughtworks一位同行的话：多数公司将前台和后台形容为两个转速不相协调的齿轮。一个要快速响应用户需求，一个要稳定至上。中台的功能，是将企业的核心能力，数据，用户信息以共享服务的形式加以沉淀，从而解决业务部门造轮子的问题，企业能力复用，降低创新成本。\n\n让上游/用户自助，缩短TTM（Time To Market），同时能快速响应变化。最后的一句愿景是好的，但大公司中台发展到后期也难免越来越僵化不适应业务发展。\n\n中台的核心价值就是业务价值驱动（多渠道数据共享，人效比提高），在互联网企业热度高（打破原来烟囱林立的系统和组织边界）。整合后才有更大范围IT变革的可能。\n始作俑者怎么讲中台\n阿里官方的企业中台定义：将企业核心能力随业务不断发展以数字化形式沉淀到平台，形成以服务为中心，由业务中台和数据中台构建起数据闭环运转的运营体系，供企业更高效的进行业务探索和创新，实现以数字化资产的形态构建企业核心差异化竞争力。\n\n通过数据统一治理和应用，给业务带来数据驱动的运营能力的提升。\n通过解决信息获取成本高，系统互联互通成本高的问题，给企业带来组织效率的提升。\n\n太阳底下没有新鲜事\n\n海尔10年前支持客户服务的体系，也是一种组织中台\n华为的大平台炮火支撑精兵作战，也是说这档子事\n\n具体的好处\n\n在高确定性和高通用性场景下能创造增量价值\n提高需求-研发上线-效果复盘各环节效率，减少重复建设投入的人力和时间成本\n\n\n低研发成本上线\n提升业务稳定性：产品差异不大的领域，集中研发运维获得更高的业务稳定性，RD角色通过更多的场景加速打磨设计，聚合流量加速积累\n能力跨BU复制\n统一数据资产\n集团层次的资源高效利用\n\n补充的解读\n\n\n数据规模的变化驱动了平台化向中台化演进，它不是系统的演进\n\n\n中台是腰部力量，要有一个好腰。但腰部力量的打造经常又处在不紧急的地位，重要不紧急，这就需要战略定力\n\n\n不存在超前的完美设计为未来不断创造价值，中台在业务起初产生最大的价值，其后逐渐衰减，因为一个健康的行业中需求是永远进化的\n\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["架构"]},{"title":"中国国民性演变历程书摘","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%9B%BD%E6%B0%91%E6%80%A7%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98%E5%8E%86%E7%A8%8B%E4%B9%A6%E6%91%98.html","content":"\n初始发表于2014.05.19\n\n\n\n增补于2020.10.19，阅读了近代的一些名人传记后，包括作者写的曾国藩，自觉作者本书对于近代来临的感触是过于学者化了，中华文化确实精华糟粕是一样多，没有这些糟粕也不成为屹立于民族之林之中华。但主体读后感写的较早，忠实记录，不加新评断。\n\n国民性演变概述\n古代中国和后来的中国人，似乎是两个物种。从春秋到唐宋，再到明清。国人的性格历程仿佛直落的三叠瀑布。\n左传里记载的中国人性格上的活力和倔强，显得有普遍的审美张力，惹得他国研究者钦佩，后来则越来越猥琐。\n源头的中国人，品格清澈，唐宋时雍容文雅，明清时品质却大幅劣化，麻木懦弱，创造力大减。\n\n若比作黄河，先秦是上游，清澈见底。\n汉唐是中游，虽泥沙俱下，毕竟有波涛汹涌之雄大气象\n明清是下游，经常断流，奄奄一息\n\n\n书中观点的意思是这些与顶层制度变化引导有很大关系，底层屁民在性格品质下滑过程中没能抗拒突围成功，真真实实连历史的注脚都算不上。\n\n\n春秋时代\n贵族精神及其散落民间\n先秦是贵族文化，贵族嘛，要有贵族的范儿：\n\n贵族首要标志是&quot;礼&quot;（俗点讲就是要优雅）\n勇敢。上古贵族都是武士，春秋时代，整个贵族阶级均匀执戈披甲为荣，冲锋陷阵为乐。\n重视荣誉，敢于承担。贵族不仅仅意味特权，但权力也意味着责任。（贵族生活是荣誉的，奴隶生活是牟利的）。\n\n贵族精神之所以宝贵，是因为勇敢，尊严，优雅，荣誉心等品性的成长和发育非一朝一夕之功，产生和完善，像酿酒，要一个个代代承继，陈陈相因的漫长过程。\n上层社会中，礼如空气一样无所不在，就如同今天的钱无所不在一样。甚至在战场上，也要遵守战争礼。春秋时的车战，是一种贵族式的战争，有时彼此都以竞技的方式看待，布阵有一定的程序，交战也有公认的原则，也就是离不开礼的约束。\n礼崩乐坏与士文化萌生\n当然，礼与百家争鸣的文化的绚烂貌似是冲突的。西周后期，分封井然的大一统制度因血缘关系淡薄及中央与地方的实力变化，礼崩乐坏，社会控制&amp;身份禁锢都弱化，所有层级的人都可以随意用脚投票（迁徙），人的精神首次空前发展。\n这要归功于多级的政治格局和激烈竞争的社会环境(同时使各国统治者急于延揽人才)。当时夏商周留下来的典籍不再是贵族的专利，普通人也有机会接受教育，进行精神上的探索。首先演变出来的“士文化”，其实是贵族文化的一种延续（虽然上层政治杀伐暴戾，贵族开始堕落），当人们能用本领为资本，主宰命运，第一次体验到自主的欢欣和自由的快乐，也就特别强调精神的自由和人格的独立。\n追求绝对的精神自由，是春战时期知识分子的重要特征。\n民风及文化\n争雄竞长，几乎都强悍好战\n东方大国齐，民风强悍，百姓都是急性子，倔脾气，和今天韩国人差不多，贵族经常在路上驾车相撞。今天吴侬软语的吴越地区，在先秦时代也是一片气质刚劲的地盘，《淮南子》中曰：越王好勇，而民皆处危争死。春秋时代，贵族各个下马能文，上马能武，侠客遍地，武士横行，一言不合，就拔剑相斗，那时的中国人，不喜弱不禁风的书生，不论男女，皆以高大健硕为美。故《诗经·卫风·硕人》言卫庄公夫人庄姜之美，必先言“硕人其颀（qí，身子长）”。\n天真烂漫心无杂念\n高远纯净可见诸诗三百，诗经里充满生命的欢欣，野性，活力，大自然和美。\n先秦时代，中国人吃饭酒酣耳热后常离席跳上一段，直到汉代，载歌载舞仍是国人的拿手好戏，汉代宴会，常以舞想属（就是说吃高兴了，主人先跳上一段，罢了，一位客人站起来接着跳，客人接着循环一圈，才算尽兴）。\n\n高晓松说汉人音乐细胞差，在更远的时代里，汉族人还是挺奔放乐活的。\n\n侠客灿烂\n春秋时代，侠人义士救危扶困，知恩必报，受恩之托一诺千金。赵氏孤儿，荆轲刺秦，演绎了那个时候男人们的壮烈与决绝，告诉后代什么叫轻生重义，生死相许。\n春秋时代侠客，最大特点是极端重视人格的独立平等，如同珍视眼珠一样珍视自己的个人尊严，对平等二字珍视甚至到了敏感的程度。\n\n孟尝君曾待客夜食，有一人蔽火光。客怒，以饭不等（有个人遮住了灯亮。那个宾客很恼火，认为饭食的质量肯定不相等），辍食辞去。”孟尝君起，自持其饭比之。客惭，自刭（自杀了，oh my lady gaga）。\n\n即使在座位安排这样的小事上，他们也不能容忍任何的不平等。乃至明清，侠客们却自愿攀附权力。春秋时侠客们只听命于自己的良心，而《三侠五义》中侠客却自称罪名，以向权力规则屈服为荣。\n\n如鲁迅所言，春秋时侠客，以死为终极目的，结局确实是一个个慷慨赴死，而清代小说中的侠客，却个个成为地主官僚，黑白两道都吃得开。\n\n如三侠五义所写，双侠丁兆兰，丁兆蕙家广有田产，实乃豪绅，五鼠则是陷空岛渔霸。\n当历史迈进帝制\n皇帝终结贵族\n春秋战国时代的绚烂风格，被一个叫嬴政的人挥剑斩断。\n秦始皇的过错不在于他统一天下，也不在于他修长城，而在于他建立了皇帝制度。皇帝制度是天底下最自私的制度。这种统治制度的根本特征是，皇帝不是为国家而存在，相反，**国家是为皇帝而存在。**皇帝一个人的意志大于所有臣民意志的总和。**皇帝制度的出现，意味着贵族社会的终结，帝制之前，贵族地位来自血统，不来自恩赐，对最高权力形成制约。而后两千年，国人一直在“做稳了奴隶”和“求做奴隶而不得”的了无新意的一治一乱中挣扎。奴隶性格和专制性格逐渐发展成民族性格中相辅相成的两个突出特征。**从这个意义上说，国民性劣化的第一推手是秦始皇。\n楚汉之争，平民上台\n始皇帝之后，社会发展的一条主线就是贫困文化或底层文化日益取代贵族文化。秦代末期的楚汉之争，就是底层文化战胜贵族文化的第一例。其结果就是平民第一次登上历史舞台的中心位置，并且把底层气质注入到最高政治中。乌江之战的结果说明了项羽身上难以化解的贵族精神。在恶化的生存环境中，贵族精神和流氓精神斗争，当然后者更有竞争力。\n淳朴未泯的汉人\n霸王道杂之\n帝制这个新型政治怪物在诞生之初毕竟不够完美，始皇父子政治风格过于率真，以为暴力可以解决一切。秦的瞬间崩盘给后来的统治者树立了反面样板，两大教训：\n\n吸食天下不能太急；\n私心私欲不能直接昭然于众，须加伪装。\n\n**儒家学说被选做门面工程，让老百姓相信，皇帝是为他们服务的。秦始皇浇筑房屋骨架，汉代的最大发明是抓意识形态建设，对房屋进行装修。**汉王朝的统治秘诀就是霸王道杂之，表面是孔子的王道，实际上是秦始皇的霸道。专用王道，肯定翻车。焚书坑儒是诛身，独尊儒术是诛心。这一招对后世的影响之深远，只有帝制和隋炀帝发明科举制可相仿。\n知识分子残存春秋之风\n被统治阶级作为工具的孔孟之道，诞生之际并不像后来那般充满奴性，而是有着刚健清新的一面，春秋士人每以君王师友自居，将自己所学之道，凌驾于权势之上，合则留，不合则去。孔子周游列国，不留恋高官厚禄，不屈服政治权威，只为推行自己的政治主张，孟子远比孔子个性更锋芒毕露，性格外向，感情丰富，行事张扬。\n到汉代，知识分子性格与先秦发生明显变化，因儒家大学成为高官，搞儒学自然渐多，但因只允许一种方式思考，大家都迷信教条，孔子成了顶峰，大家不敢越雷池一步。但毕竟汉代去古不远，风气未凿，独尊儒术的更明确精致有效的控制知识分子的技术-科举制还没发明出来，政府所能控制的，只是一小部分入仕的知识分子。汉代知识分子汉残存春秋之风：单纯朴直，好面子。汉代政治一个引人瞩目的现象，官员的高自杀率。官员获罪，都多会选择自裁，免受小吏之辱。东汉的读书人还闹学潮。\n尚武率直\n另外，汉代仍然尚武。对人体美的欣赏可体现一个社会的价值取向。汉代人眼中，男性美集中在胡须浓密，身形高大，肌肉有力等最能体现男性第二性征和力量感的方面。女性美的一个条件也是身材高挑丰满，出土的汉代画像资料上贵族妇女大多身形高大丰腴。画像砖石上，较力比武是常见的内容，汉人率直粗朴，男女关系通达。汉代男女可一同宴饮，结伴同路同车。女子能单独会见男宾，妇女改嫁是家常便饭。\n魏晋风流\n乱世世族\n从汉至唐，中国人身上一直保持着尚武，通达，开放的雄性气质。这个面貌是由当时的社会结构背景决定的。从汉到唐，中国是士族社会，这种社会与先秦贵族社会还有一定相似之处，这是强大的历史惯性决定的，虽然汉是第一个平民建立的王朝，但还不能一步跨入平民社会。\n秦始皇当初全力打击贵族，打击大户，建立平民社会。**通过立法的形式，要求“民有二男以上而不分异者，倍其赋”，以使富家大族迅速原子化，不再任用贵族当官，而是训练大批技术型官员，任免权抓在自己手里。**秦始皇背离传统的高速急转弯，终于导致秦朝翻车。\n**汉代吸取教训，不得不从法家激进主义立场上，一定程度退回先秦社会传统。只是做的没那么激进而已，也是受条件不成熟限制（无法进行大规模考试），汉代使用荐举制，使得贵族社会借此还魂。地方官员们在察举人才时，自然以民门大族为先，这样导致官位被上层社会垄断，造成了几乎变相世袭的特点。**直到唐代，门阀观念依然盛行，虽然隋就发明了科举制，但科举直到宋代才成为最主要的选官方式，因为李世民就有浓厚的门阀情结。\n从汉到唐，中国社会兼具平民社会和贵族社会的双重面貌**。**\n\n专制集权的郡县制国家，体制上讲，官位由皇帝任命。\n荐举制导致皇帝和平民间，又恢复了一个类似贵族的稳定强大的士族阶层。士族中选拔人才，靠的主要不是官员政客权力交易，而是家族声望。\n\n一个大门第，决非全赖外在权势与财力，而能保泰持盈数百年之久。文化和教育在家族里必然很重要。这也是魏晋风流不可忽视的文化背景。魏晋人士纵性任情，饮酒啸歌，风度被后人追慕。如果说士族社会中的汉、唐更像贵族社会的西周，整饬有序，礼乐辉煌，文化雍容大度，那么魏晋就像贵族时代的春秋战国，是一个个性才情得以充分展示因此极富创造力的时代。\n之所以如此，因为魏晋社会背景与那个年代高度相似。**魏晋南北朝是一个大动荡，大变革的时期。**三国鼎立之后，接着就是司马氏建西晋，新王朝未稳，就爆发八王之乱。永嘉之后，北方陷入十六国割据，江左出现东晋政权。淝水之战后，南北对峙局面正式形成。其后则是南北朝政权不断更迭。\n权威崩溃，性情释放\n**与皇权不稳定形成鲜明对比的，是世家大族的稳定。**门第高贵的士人，甚至对门第不如他久远的皇帝报以一种睥睨之态，许多人甚至不屑于为皇帝服务。政治权威的崩溃，意味着儒学也不再是唯一的价值体系，魏晋士人对庄子和佛学的兴趣头一次超过儒家经典，导致了玄学的兴起。\n哲学是非功利的产物。魏晋士人的时髦活动“清谈&quot;，激烈辩论人究竟该怎样活才算快乐，究竟什么样的人格才是最理想，最完美，如何协调个体和社会。思考的结论是，人生意义不在于一时一事的物质得失，也不在于把活生生的生命做僵硬的伦理教条的注解，而是在于心的自在，真性情的释放，竹林七贤就是这股思潮的代表，强调一个真字。魏晋南北朝，在中国政治史的一个衰落时代，确实中国艺术史的无比辉煌的时代，与书法一样，绘画，文学，音乐舞蹈雕塑等都出现了突破性发展。王羲之不用说了，顾恺之，陆探微绘画史划时代的大家，文学史第一次出现山水田园诗，音乐领域，诞生了广陵散这样直指内心的千古绝唱。\n大唐的雄健阳光\n女权空前绝后\n对比近代的中国女装，唐代就是另一个世界。在唐人那里，性还没有变成要遮掩的罪过，没发明出那么多莫名其妙的清规戒律，离婚改嫁家常便饭。\n\n唐肃宗之前的唐代公主，再嫁者达23人之多，三嫁则有3人。&lt;古今图书集成&gt;所列烈女节妇，宋代267人，明代达到36000人，唐代只有51人。\n\n唐代上层社会，对性更是持宽容甚至放纵的态度。文人狎妓是公开的时尚，李白不说了，白居易这样的高级领导也公然养妓。后世所谓脏唐臭汉，指的就是唐代上层社会的淫乱之风。武则天养面首，唐中宗的韦后先后与几个人私通，太宗女儿高阳公主嫌一个老公不够玩，还跑外面找和尚道士，为补偿，找两个美女供老公享用。还有其它公主纵欲的记载，简直乱到不行。唐代女权意识空前绝后，产生一系列弄权的宫廷女性，更产生了唯一的女皇帝。唐代小说里甚至有不少女侠，与其它朝代里国人喜欢的女性形象大异其趣。\n胡气恰到好处\n唐代种种与众不同，因为汉族文化中优质健康成熟的部分，与北方少数民族天真刚劲开阔地气质的偶然结合。催生独一无二的自然丰盛灿烂，是中国人最自信，放松，自由的时代。唐太宗至多有十六分之三的汉人血统，高宗只有三十二分之三。少数民族做皇帝，唐代并非空前绝后。但是唐代**与元代、清代完全不同的是，唐代皇帝的少数民族血统是隐蔽的。盖古人观念之中，父亲提供了全部的遗传基因，母亲只提供了血液营养而已。所以在社会心理上，唐代帝王从来没有被当作少数民族看待。**这是隋唐与元朝和清朝至关重要的区别。唐代皇帝既不必像元代与清代皇帝那样，对汉民族及汉文化抱着恐惧提防心理，同时又拥有根植于少数民族血液的蓬勃生命力，因而也就造就了他们博大开阔的胸怀与视野。正如陈寅恪所说：“李唐一族之所以崛起，盖取塞外野蛮精悍之血，注入中原文化颓废之躯。旧染既除，新机重启，扩大恢张，遂能别创空前之伟业。”\n这种“胡气”使唐初诸帝有着海纳百川兼容并包的心态。\n文弱之宋\n唐宋对比(热烈vs内敛)\n唐代女人外向泼辣，宋代妇女却内敛柔和。唐代女人喜欢骑着高头大马招摇过市，宋代妇女却只能站在重重帷帘之后，掀起一角向外悄悄张望一下。唐代妇女可以和男人一样，大呼大叫地参加集体体育运动，宋代妇女却裹起了三寸金莲，讲究起行不动裙，笑不露齿。唐代妇女以丰肥壮硕为美，而宋代追求瘦弱和病态，如张子野的《菩萨蛮》中所描写的那样：“轻怯瘦腰身，纱窗病起人。”唐人粗豪，宋人细腻。凡是唐代的事物，无一不博大恢宏，健硕丰盛。而宋代文物的风格则细腻而文雅。\n唐人热烈，宋人内敛。唐人喜欢画骏马、苍鹰和牡丹。这几种热烈、奔放、大气的意象正抒发了唐人性格中的慷慨和雄健，宋代的文人画家却偏爱画梅兰竹菊，它们独处山中，低调含蓄，幽冷寂寞。唐瓷大气，宋瓷精致。唐瓷以雍容自然而取胜，宋瓷则精致而谨慎。小山富士夫说：“唐瓷华贵，宋瓷纯净，明清瓷器精细俗艳。”宋瓷或为纯白、漆黑，或为清澈无垢的青白，或为幽玄深邃的粉青。与大气粗朴的唐瓷相比，它简洁清秀，反映出宋人细腻内向的心理性格。唐诗热烈，宋诗沉思。唐人笔下的边塞壮丽无比：“秦时明月汉时关，万里长征人未还。但使龙城飞将在，不教胡马度阴山。”对比之下，宋代为数不多的边塞诗词中最有名的那一句范仲淹的“浊酒一杯家万里，燕然未勒归无计，羌管悠悠霜满地”，读起来是那么的凄凉。如果说唐诗体现的是少年精神，那么宋诗则充满了中年人的冷静和沉思。\n总结来说，唐宋时代，中国人在思想上的原创力不再，但是文学艺术方面的创造力却突然勃发。唐诗展示了前所未有的艺术生命力，精神蓬勃，气象光辉。其风格或者高昂明朗，或者雄浑壮大，或者具“清水出芙蓉”的自然之美。宋词则为中国人表达情感开辟了新天地，其清新婉约和生活化更胜唐诗一筹。\n乱世后遗症，重文轻武\n这一切源于宋代统治者对武器的深深恐惧。从开元盛世后到宋朝建立的二百二十年，中国都是在打打杀杀中度过的：先是生灵涂炭的安史之乱，然后是动荡不安的藩镇割据，后来又是乱成一团麻的五代十国。篡弑和兵变是五代十国的主旋律，每个政治人物的辉煌都不过是昙花一现。武人统治的时代，人人都朝不保夕，不但老百姓流离失所，连皇帝都是高危的职业。枪杆子决定一切的世界，实在太让人绝望了。费尽心机得来的荣华，转眼又成泡影。在这个世界里，没有胜利者，所有人都同归悲惨结局。以兵变从孤儿寡母手中夺得江山的赵匡胤不想再继续这无望的恶性循环。结束它的办法只有一个：建立新的游戏规则，让人们不再凭枪杆子，而是凭笔头子来进行竞争。因此，宋代政治设计的第一个特点是对武力的全方位防范。\n因宋统治者为了吸取前面王朝的教训，防止权力被剥夺，采取重文轻武的政策，最终使宋朝经济快速发展，教育文化发达，但是也导致宋朝是个文弱的朝代，军事老是败北，最终被马背民族打败，灭了。宋教育文化的发展也是文化平民化，世俗化，雅文化与俗文化共同发展。可惜到了元朝，蒙古族对文化的破坏，铁骑踏断了民族脊梁，最终俗文化逐渐朝暴力文化发展，典型的元时代的《水浒传》，底层崇尚暴力，假如站在当今的角度分析，里面很多英雄都是反人类的，并且是藐视女人，对女人的极大不尊重。\n丢失自信，心理扭曲\n亡国灭种的威胁，是宋代理学兴起的直接原因。它基于一种心理误区：“宋代中国人没有了自信，因此他们靠守节来获取安全感。在他内心中隐隐约约以为，只要他用强意志力谨守一些细微的行为准则，灾难好像就不会降临于他。”这种心理误区使中国知识分子从宋代开始都染上了“强迫性人格”，都成了完美主义者。他们给自己提出的标准非常高而不切实际，要求自己必须成为“圣人”，不允许自己犯哪怕最微小的错误。只有这样，他们才能获得真正的心理安全。这就是宋明理学的诞生背景。梅兰竹菊在宋代以后被称为“四君子”，这四种事物所表现的，其实都是对即将到来的严酷环境（亡国灭种的威胁，笼罩在每个宋人心头）所做的一种心理准备，为在死亡、在被征服的威胁面前坚守气节而进行的自我精神动员。\n\n孙国栋在《唐宋之际社会门第之消融》一文中说：“唐代以名族贵胄为政治、社会之中坚，五代以由军校出身之寒人为中坚，北宋则以科举上进之寒人为中坚。所以唐宋之际，实贵胄与寒人之一转换过程，亦阶级消融之一过程。深言之，实社会组织之一转换过程也。”\n\n平民社会在政治结构上的主要特点是皇权独尊。到了宋代，政治权力全归天子所有，不再有可与政府相抗衡的庞大家族，君主独裁统治正式开始。\n\n宋代宰相还有比较大的权利，皇帝相当于董事长，CEO还是宰相，这里不同意作者的讲法\n\n在平民社会，君主的个人价值取向，对国家和民族的前途命运影响更为直接。\n宋代统治者的开明、理性体现在：尊重文臣，文臣的理性和谨慎，社会管理特别是舆论管制的宽松。\n**宋代的基本制度设计，大幅度改变了中国人的性格。中国人历史上第一次不再以立功疆场为荣。**立多大功勋，也难有文臣的风光。**男人开始丧失尚武精神，沉醉在案头书牍，体质越来越差，性格越来越细腻。**宋代之前，国人并不压制自己的欲望，活的健康自然。宋代开始，不会骑马的不能比赛疆场杀贼，只能比赛谁个能杀心中贼，也就是谁更能”克人欲，存天理“。男人们缺乏自信，妇女的命运因此遭遇180度转弯。文弱的宋代男人开始了处女嗜好，三寸金莲，女人被用礼教和衣服包裹起来。甚至宣称，女性贞节是关乎国家前前途的大事。缺少安全感的人，都善于推卸责任。宋代男人就是通过这样的方式，把亡国灭种的责任转嫁到了女人身上，通过盯着女性守贞节，缓解自己的内心压力，梅兰竹菊这四个节操的象征物，越来越多被用作女性的名字，是一个暗示。\n蛮霸之元\n文化被弃\n如果说宋朝只是使国民普遍在气质上变得更文弱，那么元朝则彻底打断了中国人的脊梁，后者对国民性的改变是摧毁性的。中国文明最大的一次倒退，应该说是从元朝开始的，**蒙古人一直比较残暴，靠暴力统治。元代出现了一个前所未有的局面：上层文化遭遇到了毁灭性打击，下层文化或者说俗文化首次取代雅文化，成为主流。**忽必烈就曾发出疑问：“汉人惟务课赋吟诗，将何用焉？”虽然后来忽必烈决定以汉法治汉人，但对汉人的礼法传统，始终不予重视。有位著名的外国学者曾说：“鞑靼统治不但压迫了为其牺牲品的人民，并且凌辱而且消磨了他们的灵魂。”\n精英损耗\n由于华夷之辨独盛，所以蒙古人在中国所遇的抵抗是他们征服世界的过程中最为顽强的。事实上，南宋军队虽称软弱，但是也涌现了众多铁骨铮铮的人物：襄阳之围，宋人坚守了5年。1275年的常州之战，数千守军战斗至死，只余六人，反背相柱，杀敌多人后才壮烈殉国。元兵围扬州，守将李庭芝誓死坚守，甚至南宋太皇太后亲自劝降也拒不接受。他们杀掉元朝的招降使者，焚招降书于城上。“城中粮尽，有自食其子以坚持者”……\n然而从另一个角度看，**数十年的抗元战争，最可怕的后果是消耗掉了汉民族最精英的人物。那些有血性、有骨气、有胆量的人大面积地被消灭。**有人说，在文天祥赋诗而死、陆秀夫负幼主蹈海而亡后，中国作为一个文化体已经灭亡，“崖山之后，已无中华”。这一方面是指中国文化受到毁灭性的打击，另一方面也指中国的脊梁已被打断，中华精神已经灭绝。\n宋代以前的中国，可以说是一个伟大的民族。它创造着，体验着，发现着，说自己想说，想自己所想，生机勃勃，生趣盎然。\n宋代以后，诗人们的才性、阅历、学识均大幅崩塌。他们画地为牢，处处模仿着过去，重复着过去，以诗写得像唐或者像宋沾沾自喜。遇到花朝或者月夕，或其他任何人生情境，他们都已经形成固定的解释方式、感受方式和表达方式。他们以拾前人牙慧为荣，不敢越藩篱一步。明清五百年的诗坛，没有一点激情和冲动，没有一点真性情，甚至没有一个真表情，除了纳兰容若外，居然没再产生一个有影响的诗人。\n宋代以后的中国人不但失去了创造力，也失去了感受力。整个民族只剩了一个外壳，没有了灵魂。社会如同一潭死水，散发出腐烂的气味，从上层到下层，人们都既狡猾又愚昧，既贪婪又懦弱。如果说这几百年中国人有什么进步，那就是在政治厚黑学和民间骗人造假术上的进步。\n混蛋之明\n户籍管制，八股诞生\n秦始皇之后的历代开国皇帝，除了北魏隋唐等少数民族血统者之外，几乎都有或浓或淡的流氓气，汉高祖早年就是一个小流氓，赵匡胤亦出身游民，其父做了倒插门女婿，赵匡胤少而流浪四方，从军后才渐渐发迹。而朱元璋是杰出代表，在社会上游荡过三年，毁灭了朱的道德底线，人不为己天诛地灭成为他的生命哲学，在个人奋斗和治理国家过程中，多次表现出他的流氓意识。\n虽朱赶走了蒙古人，在历史上称为汉族的光复，然而朱的统治比蒙古人更野蛮强硬。继承了蒙古人统治的精髓–户口世袭制。他恨不得把全国人民都植物化，只产出果实供他享用。因此他又创立历史上最严格的户籍管理制度，不允许随便迁移。重视对知识分子大脑的控制。唐代科举制度**，把全社会智力资源集中到功名利禄这一个指向，限制了智力活动的多级多向发展。**朱元璋的改革，规定只能写八股文，造成格式化的知识分子。四书一经之外，咸束高阁。\n特务治国，流氓社会\n治国措施的第二个核心，防止任何人窥视他的权力。防止豪门巨户，屡兴大狱，几万豪门杀得所剩无几。清洗开国元勋，清洗当时上层社会几乎所有智商较高，权力较大的人。**第三是大搞特务治国，因为出身卑贱又防范心重。对治下的臣民表现出强烈的不信任心理。**对臣民的一举一动一言一行包括私生活，表现出一种病态的关注。中国历代王朝的运转，总要套上一件文质彬彬的外衣，只有明代的皇帝们撕掉了这层外衣，赤裸裸表现出对他人的防范和贱视。从某个角度来说，明朝是一个由流氓建立的，以流氓规则运转的流氓社会，这在中国历史上是绝无仅有的。\n以流氓手段治国，自然就要依赖流氓。明代政治的另一大特点是流氓与权力的高度结合。（专横的权力）毁灭道德，因为缺乏安全感就不会有道德。民代特殊的制度设计和同志作风对民族性格产生了不可逆转的影响。**通过强硬而残暴的政策，朱元璋把传统文化的负面因素放大到影响整个国家的性格。**他的强横残暴，使中国民族的整体性格又一次大幅度软化，他将社会个体的自主性摧毁殆尽，人们本来不多的自尊意识更被扫除一空。奴性从明代开始，在人格空地上如同野草一样长得更加茂盛。\n明代社会的最大特点是，几乎所有社会阶层都呈现出&quot;流氓“面貌。皇帝贵族的流氓事迹多了去，我就不写了。明代正统以后，从朝廷首辅到普通官员，争相向皇帝献房中术以邀宠，成为中国历史上从来没有过的一道奇景。太监之祸的严重大家也知道。僧道集团，结交衙门，吃酒赌钱，靠诈骗为生，形成了一股风气。至于底层政权，如金瓶梅所描写的，明代地方政府中，具体办事儿人员也大多是流氓。\n随着社会日益腐败，几乎每个社会成员都从学会了颠倒的社会规则。上梁不正下梁歪，底层百姓们无条件地接受了流氓规则，我们耳熟能详的俗语里，大多数都是在明代流行开来的。流氓性格从明代开始，成为中国人性格中一个重要组成部分。\n\n在明朝万历年间到达中国的传教士利玛窦意外地发现，中国的男人都如此文弱。他在写给罗马的信中说：“很难把中国的男子看作是可以作战打仗的人。”他惊讶地发现，这个帝国里最聪明的人看起来都像女人。鸦片战争后来到中国的外国人，更惊讶于中国人的胆小。古伯察说：“傲慢尊大的、看上去颇具刚毅的中国人，一旦遇到态度坚决，意志不挠的人，马上就会变得软弱，像患了癔病。面临困难的中国人嘴里常说‘小心’，即‘胆子要小’。”罗斯则说：“中国儿童不像欧洲儿童那样蹦蹦跳跳……对武力的赞赏已经完全没有了。大男子当众啼哭而不以为耻。”\n\n秦汉以降，虽然在世俗层面，士人们遵守权力秩序，但是在精神层面，他们中的许多人却以“圣人”自期，追求“始乎为士，终乎为圣人”，保持着一定程度的人格独立。及至朱元璋时代，士人们做隐士的自由首次被剥夺。朱元璋不能容忍在他至高无上的皇权之下存在另一种高傲，认为拒绝为他服务的士人必定是看不起他。他发布命令：“率土之滨，莫非王臣。寰中士大夫不为君用，是自外其教者，诛其身而没其家，不为之过。”在这道前无古人的“寰中士大夫不为所用律”下，苏州才人姚润、王谟因征召不至，被朱元璋斩首、抄家。\n当历史进入大明王朝时，流氓化，恐怖统治，更是典型。流氓典型表现，不讲规则，没有底线，欺软怕硬，不择手段。这也逐渐成为国民性格的一部分。\n帝制终点\n历代王朝莫不要求大臣们成为有操守的名臣，然而清代帝王却首次提出，一个大臣不应该追求成为名臣，因为过于坚守道德原则，也会妨碍他们不打折扣地、像狗一样地为皇帝服务。乾隆更提出了一个著名的理论：“奸臣”固然并非国家幸事，“名臣”的出现其实也不是什么好事。国家只需要唯命是从办事敏捷的奴才。因此清代这些饱读四书五经的大臣有一个共同的特点，那就是无思想无操守，除功名利禄外无所关心。在皇帝明察之下，他们老老实实，卖命效力，以图飞黄腾达。皇帝一旦放松警惕，他们就会大肆贪污，尽一切可能盗窃皇帝的家产。他们选择了动物式生存。所谓操守、尊严和人格，对他们来说已经是不着边际的空话。\n更加混蛋的满清基本制度上几乎全部研习明朝，故就不用多说了，一个鸟样。清朝世人皆为奴隶。\n\n满清混蛋之余只剩一个疆域扩大的有利结果\n\n明清不再开放，使得文明衰落，断绝了走向世界的机会。\n近代来临\n改良论调\n\n胡适说：“民治的本身就是一种公民教育。给他一票，他今天也许拿去做买卖，但将来总有不肯卖票的一日；但是你若不给他一票，他现在虽没有卖票的机会，将来也没有不卖票的本事了。”\n\n有人卖票，说明民选这一票还有用。比起这张票一文不值，毕竟还是进步。在胡适看来，中国的民主政治也许注定要从卖票甚至打架开始，关键是一定要迈开这一步，然后再一步步地进行改良：“选票制的改革，从公开的变成秘密的，从记名变为不记名的，便可以除去许多关于选举的罪恶。今天中国的选举坏到极处了；将来我们若想改良选政，一定还得从制度上寻下手的方法。”\n\n胡适说：“暴力革命带来的，必然是暴力专制政府。”\n\n鲁迅的国民性批判很大程度上也是一种激烈的道德批判。胡适则认为，只进行道德批判，不追究道德背后的东西，把所有的事情都混到“国民性改造”这个大锅里一锅煮，是达不到效果的。政治的归政治，道德的归道德，不能试图以道德解决政治问题。\n中国人历来有一种一元论的思维倾向，喜欢把复杂的世相归结为“小葱拌豆腐”式的某种“终极真理”之下，认为找到“大本大元”之后，则一切复杂的问题都会“彻底解决”，迎刃而解。**但“统一的思想只是思想的僵化“。**胡适的思想来源于杜威的实验主义，他认为人类永远不能掌握终极真理，任何一种“主义”都不可能绝对正确，“包医百病，根本解决”。\n胡适的“全盘西化”并不是指毁灭中国旧有的一切。他说，全盘西化只是一个方向，凡事取法其上，得乎其中，向全盘西化努力的结果，必然是两种文化的融合。\n革命派\n年轻的毛泽东是一个比较右倾的人（早期向各种人学习，较早崇拜的是梁启超），甚至主张湖南独立及资产阶级型的政权，但其思潮变化的很快，各种流行思潮在其脑中都过过一遍。但有一条主线，国民性改造需要有圣人来领导，掌握了大本大元（真理）的人出现来唤醒，改造全国人的头脑，引向被解救的境地。马列主义占据每个人的头脑，去掉人性中的私。\n“文化大革命”亦未达目标。经过文化大革命之后，大家感觉国民性没有什么进步，反倒有重大的退步。人为分为两部分，相互斗争，私底下的谈话作为证据拿出来指控你。相互提防，仇恨，彼此间的冷漠滋长。\n实践教训\n任何一种变革都要有立足的基础，现代化与其说是一个摧毁传统的“除旧布新”运动，毋宁说是一个将传统资源转化利用的“推陈出新”过程。或者说，文化只可能在旧的基础上升级换代，而不可能一夜之间全盘更换。\n改造过程中要警惕左派，左派通常是人品败坏之徒，我的是我的，你的还是我的，咱把你的分了吧。全部的loser都在左派下集结，不满现状，希望没有秩序，重构秩序，想睡秀才娘子的床，想捏小尼姑的脸蛋儿。党和政府只怕煽动和组织，这是底牌。剩余的声张自己权利的事儿，都可以干。\n来段结语\n\n《乌合之众》中也强调了民族性的差异，漫长的时间造就了不同的作品。遗传的心理结构在人们感觉和思维方式上造成巨大的差别，民族是在历史中形成的有机体，只能通过缓慢的世代累积的过程发生变化，而教育是我们在一定层度上影响国民心智的唯一手段。\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"中国就业人群调查","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E7%BE%A4%E8%B0%83%E6%9F%A5.html","content":"\n劳动力人群\n就业vs非就业阶段\n14亿人口中，就业和非就业年龄段大概是6 vs 4开\n\n\n非就业阶段人口5.9亿【靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段】\n\n\n就业段劳动人口8.2亿，如果女性退休年龄下探则就业人口应会对齐下探至统计年鉴的口径7.69亿\n\n\npie showData\ntitle 人口14.1（亿）\n    \"就业阶段人口\" : 8.2\n    \"靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段\" : 5.9\n非劳动阶段人口\n\n储备力量3.1亿\n\n6岁以下的人口有0.78亿（7788万）\n中小学生1.85亿（18534万）\n在读大学生0.47亿（4655万）\n\n\n离退力量2.8亿：60岁以上老人\n\n\npie showData\ntitle 5.9（亿）非劳动人口\n    \"儿童（6岁下）\" : 0.78\n    \"中小学\" : 1.85\n    \"大学生\" : 0.47\n    \"退休\": 2.8\n总分布\npie showData\ntitle 人口140000（万）\n    \"6岁下儿童\" : 7788\n    \"中小学\" : 18534\n    \"大学生\" : 4655\n    \"工作人群\": 82000\n    \"60岁以上老人\": 28000\n8.2亿适龄劳动人口\n按2022统计年鉴，抽样统计到劳动力7.6863亿人[1]，那么还约有5000w+人完全不从事任何获取报酬的活动，实际上更多点，因为60岁以后，还有一些人返聘或者继续在工作。\n从三产性质看\n第一产业-1.77亿\n（农林牧渔）1.77亿人，围绕农林牧渔卖饲料卖工具的可不算在内，其实第一产业职业门槛并不低，这行当对没基础或者没地的人是关闭的\n第二产业-2.11亿\n含采掘业（不含辅助开采）、制造业（不含修理）、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业、建筑业。\n\n可细分为41个行业，在23年1-10月只有14个实现营收和利润正增长，电力热力生产和供应业增长最好（电力，燃气，热力生产，水再生等）。投身这些行业会比较有汤喝\n建筑行业呈下降趋势，2022年建筑行业从业人数减少了141w，剩5142万。不少由放开转向物业服务，分类性质发生会变化。\n\n第三产业-3.46亿人\n物流运输\n\n物流运输（运货+运人）有5000万+从业者\n\n\n汽车司机\n\n货车司机最多，1800w人\n网约车司机次之，657w（网上一种说法1900w没有官方出处）\n出租车司机 270w\n100w公交司机\n\n\n除了司机，还有其他物流运输从业者\n\n450w快递小哥\n205w铁路工作人员\n190w的航海人员\n60w航空从业者\n剩下的或许都是外卖小哥1268w\n\n\n\npie showData\ntitle 物流运输（货+人）5000w\n    \"货车司机\" : 1800\n    \"网约车\" : 657\n    \"出租车\" : 270\n    \"公交车\": 100\n    \"快递小哥\": 450\n    \"铁路人员\": 205\n    \"航海\": 190\n    \"航空\": 50\n    \"外卖\": 1268\n信息服务业\n大概有1000w信息服务业，其中600~700w程序员，70w产品经理，50w软件测试，100w个UI和设计师。整个行业一边裁员一边招人，给年轻人让位。这个领域人数上限还有提升空间\n金融行业\n金融圈大概有1000w人，保险是大头，570w人，银行占300w，证劵35w人，剩下的是投行和投融资中介。这个圈子里要求的是先会做事（业务），再会做人（升得快但投入也很高），做自己（佛系）舒服也是危险的\n通讯行业\n通讯行业200w人，三大运营商占一半，中移动人最多45w，联通24w，电信28w。行业平均工资高，平均25w~31w，但基层员工收入低，可能才3k/月，收入差距明显，技术和管理人才收入很高\n文化产业\n文化产业420w人，各部门机构从业人员72.5w，从业人数最多的是各地景区工作人员，147w，还有产业配套服务人员（旅行社酒店）134w（按统计年鉴光住宿就162w，数字存疑），艺术创作和演出从业人员41.5w，6w人负责图书馆公共服务，0.64w负责美术馆。这个板块挣得不多胜在较稳定。\n律师\n执业律师超过65w，行业平均薪资超过15w，工龄越长越值钱，一线收入高。也是不平衡的，没案子的律师一年下来收入可能还不如外卖小哥，还是看谁能掌握更多的优质客户，算是高端局，既要学历高，又要经验好，专业和销售能力都要强。\n电子商务\n电子商务大概有720w卖家和337w主播，一半的卖家已开播，便宜了消费者，养活了平台，一片厮杀红海，亏死一批老板，成就了一小部分人（如头部主播）。电商不是均富的，82开，91开的比例，一直洗牌，平台还是卖家都是一样，可能几年不赚钱，几个月就把之前亏的钱都赚回来了，是一个波动不稳定的行业。老板在寻找爆款商品，员工在寻找爆款老板。\n其它\n[数据无法核实] 餐饮约莫有700w从业人员，家政3000w，文化娱乐2000w，体育行业490w。\n\n其中北上广深的餐馆最多，占全国的 23%\n\n图形分列\npie showData\ntitle 三类产业从业人员（亿）\n    \"第一产业（农林牧渔）\" : 1.77\n    \"第二产业\" : 2.11\n    \"第三产业\" : 3.46\n\n从24 年发布的第五次全国经济普查中，法人单位的批发零售从业人员5326 万，含个体户的话就更多，一种说法是达到 1.35 亿（但未见数据官方出处）\n\npie showData\ntitle 第三产业人员细分（34600万）\n    \"批发零售\": 5326\n    \"物流运输\" : 5000\n    \"信息服务\" : 1000\n    \"金融\" : 1000\n    \"通讯\": 200\n    \"文化产业\": 420\n    \"律师\": 65\n    \"餐饮\": 700\n    \"家政\": 3000\n    \"体育\": 490\n    \"文化娱乐（影视歌游戏演出等）\": 2000\n    \"电商卖家\": 720\n    \"主播\": 337\n从姓资姓社看\n社会主义群体\n财政供养人员\n\n参考全国住房公积金2021年度报告表，国家机关和事业单位实缴职工4654.61w人。\n截止2022年末全国缴纳机关事业单位养老保险人数5953w，在职约4500w，理解起来加上离退休约6000w人。\n人类时代食利（食税）阶层的人口一定要小于交税人口的$1/10$，超过这个数就不可持续\n\n\n\n公务员：党委、政府、人大、政协+公检法 共700w（含220w警察，法院30w，检察院20w）。如果加上参公，党群，工会妇联残联作协人员（实际上这批按定义不是公务员）则可能达到1300w\n\n\n事业单位：3300w。\n\n教师是事业编里最多的，1884w人，中小学老师已经饱和了。\n医生440w（学历要求高），注册护士522w，药师53w。\n\n  pie showData title 在职财政饭（4600万）\n    \"国家机关（四大班子公检法）\" : 700\n    \"参公：党群工会妇联残联作协\":600\n    \"事业单位\" : 3300\n\n\n国企\n\n国企：4000w\n\n\n含电网90w\n\n\n烟草50w\n\n\n邮政90w\n\n\n石油石化天然气200w\n\n\n\n\n现役军人\n270w，其中军人200w，武警66w\n图例展示\n\n事业单位中群体最大是教育行业，大部分是教师，占比57%。注册护士占比 15.8%，医生占比 13.3%\n\npie showData title 社会主义群体概分（单位万）\n    \"国家机关\" : 700\n    \"参公党群...作协\":600\n    \"事业单位\" : 3300\n    \"国企\" : 4000\n    \"军人\": 270\n\n从第 5 次经济普查数据看，23 年底教育行业人员增长到 2241w，卫生人员增长到 1110w\n\npie showData title 社会主义群体细分（单位万）\n    \"国家机关\" : 700\n    \"参公党群...作协\":600\n    \"教师\" : 1884\n    \"医生\" : 440\n    \"注册护士\": 522\n    \"药师\": 53\n    \"事业单位其它\": 400\n    \"电网\":90\n    \"烟草\":50\n    \"邮政\":90\n    \"石化\":200\n    \"国企其它\":3570\n    \"军人\":200\n    \"武警\":66\n资本市场群体\n数量\n除开上面的社会主义群体，再除去农业兄弟1.77亿，无产阶级打工人最多。1.14亿个体工商户，2亿灵活就业者（也就是没单位给交社保，灵活就业者不包含个体户），在民企老老实实上班的最多2亿（7.7亿就业人口-0.8亿编制人员-2亿灵活就业-1.1亿个体户-1.77亿一产=2.1亿）\npie showData title 姓资群体（亿）\n    \"农业兄弟\" : 1.77\n    \"个体工商户\":1.14\n    \"灵活就业\" : 2\n    \"民企\" : 2.1\n五险一金\n劳动法选择性生效，五险一金能给还着实是小部分人\n\n全国缴纳失业险的2.3亿[1]，买了社保就一定有失业险。公务员和事业单位不用交失业险。那么正在上班的人中加上公务员事业单位合计有社保的不到3亿（保底2.76=0.46机关公积金+2.3）\n累积城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数是5亿[1]\n缴纳公积金的人数就更少了，1.64亿\n\npie showData title 就业人群社会保障（亿）\n    \"在职社保+公积金\" : 1.64\n    \"在职有社保\":2.76\n    \"有社保已退休\" : 2\n未来已来\n从目前的就业人口数量就可以支撑我们经济的正常运行，甚至实现稳步增长。反身一想，那么当前未能成功的就业人口其背后的经济价值正在趋近于 0。\n就业未来甚至具有一定的社会福利意义，福利的属性决定了被剩下的人，即使找到岗位，收入也是有限的。\n科技是第一生产力，也是破坏力，破坏生产关系。有论调新技术会创造新的岗位，但这个观点的正确性仅限于宏观层面，把目光放到微观会发现，新岗位和旧岗位承接的不是同一批人，被电商挤压回家的百货人并未成为物流人和客服人，因为新产业只要年轻人。\n我们面临的问题是史诗级的，是人类首次面临 10 亿级别人口的产业升级，破局之道必定是组合拳：\n\n转移支付：产业升级可看作传统部门向现代部门让利的过程，生产袜子的企业关闭了换成生产芯片的企业，不一定是袜子卖不动了，而是生产芯片对社会来说更有效率。袜子厂的员工理论上应得到一定程度的补贴，等同于过去的给农民减负，都是财富上的转移支付，今天换了一个名字：防返贫\n对内分流：只能用三产来承接，教育分流和免费职业培训，就是想让被淘汰的旧产业者有机会转向围绕新产业衍生出来的生产性服务业或基础服务业里。\n对外输出：向新兴市场输出，是每一个发达国家的必经之路。与低端产业出口相匹配的就是低端就业人口的输出。我们曾是日本最大的海外输出市场之一，从商品到生产线甚至技术人员，日本是一并出口，大量的技术人员来到中国，没有我们这个庞大的市场，这些人在日本国内也是要被淘汰掉的。\n\n如果你没在产业升级的快车道上，大概率就在产业淘汰的车轮之下。作为普通人，未来的选择无非三种：自我放弃、投身三产、海外出征。\n引用\n1.国家统计局 中国统计年鉴2023 ↩2.国家统计局 人口和就业指标口径说明 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"中国式思维","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n\n曾老讨论这个话题的出发点如下：\n\n可以欣赏别人的长处，却实在不必要样样优点都要学，否则自己乱了根本，反而产生很多化解不掉的矛盾。先做好中国人，再来学习外国人的优点，当然能够做到他山之石，可以攻玉，徒然把自己弄得四不像，根本没有好处。\n正所谓持经达变。经也可以指群体生活中的常规定理，个体在生活中进退取舍的指导原则。中国文化如果真的乱七八糟怎么可能生存五千年之久？人生短暂，最大的任务在于提升自己并承前启后。\n哲学源流之分\n西：一分二，二分四，四分八\n东：一生二，二生三，三生万物\n古时，东西方隔离很远，互不沟通，那时东方以一内涵二为主要理念，西方则以二构成一为主流，日本向中国学习，却由于生态环境影响，逐渐形成一统全局的理念，德意也在20世纪30年代先后变形为一统全局的状态。\n西方人的**分别性大过和合性**，中国人倒过来。一个以分为常，视合为变，一个以合为常，不得已才分。合中无分是一种变形，称之为一统全局\n\n分和在生活体现\n中国人的思维总是把很多东西揉在一起\n秘书\n中国人总是要求一专多能，呵呵，就像中国的女秘书总是年轻的，带的出去的，能陪吃饭的。\n国外的秘书可能是很老的女性。表现出思维上不做分类。\n菜肴\n中国的菜也是混着炒的，西方的肉菜，多是分开的。印度他们的东西也是，甚至贯彻到严格的人群分层。\n中式风格点\n中国人的基本性格\n由于历史悠久，加上包容性很强，中华民族实在是世界上最复杂的民族，几乎样样特质，在我们身上都可以找到。\n说起来十分简单，就是我们口头上常说，心里头常想的**”不一定”**，判断标准妥当性往往大于真实性。\n有一套常见的复合标准，如害怕权威却不服从权威；喜欢表现又害怕表现；个人主义又重视团体；嘴上常常没意见却常常很有意见；告诉大家不用担心便是希望大家各自小心。\n在这些复合标准中，中国人主张合理就是好，要因时因地而制宜。\n基本立场\n中国人欢迎合理的变来变去，厌恶不合理的乱变，正所谓不可不变，不可乱变。\n中国人的基本立场，是不偏不倚，秉持既不反对也不赞成的态度，反对应反对的部分，又赞成应赞成的部分。\n安全和面子是中国人最先想到的因素，有本事不随便表现，出于明哲保身的考虑。中国人比较喜欢打击有能力的人又同情没能力的，不随便表现才不致一表现就死。\n警觉性高\n中国人警觉性很高，非常怕被讨好，对方特别客气时都不忘提醒自己礼多必诈，但一旦遭受冷落，也会提醒自己受了委屈要给对方一点颜色看看，所以讨好要让对方觉得好像没讨好一样，例如说:我不必当面奉承您老，我这是说真心话，让对方心理上做好准备。\n自大与自卑\n好为人师是中国人自大的通病，听到一些相反的道理，觉得自己好像思考不够周全，显得有些自卑，但中国人不可以轻易认输，死抬杠也要硬撑到底。谦虚是治疗中国人一面自大一面自卑的良药。\n长期圆满\n中国人注重长期性的衡量，是对人最大的激励，只要跑到终点，早一点晚一点没有太大的差别，希望大家互相鼓励学习，共同发展以求互补，利于整体进步。\n长期性的激励与综合性的鼓励，乃是中国人不折不挠，见贤思齐的原动力，也是站在中国人让大家都有面子的圆满立场上的选择，激励大家从事长期竞赛而不要中途放开。\n\n个人觉得这段原动力的表述并未触及本源，历史的悠久记载与核心地理区的稳定传承，让中国相较而言有一份长期性的视角。欣赏见贤思齐的总结表述。\n\n中式良心\n中国人的良心表现在为子孙设想上，不能留下坏榜样，以免祸延子孙，凡事妥当性须大于真实性，理大于法。\n合理就是好，一切力求恰到好处，高手过招，点到为止，赢得装没赢，输的装没输。\n必要修养\n至少应包括：明辨随机应变和投机取巧，分清圆通与圆滑，弄清楚“经（原则）”和“权（权宜之计）”之间的配合，分辨虚安和欺骗，区别大我和小我，多说我们少说我。\n\n莫把自己所作所为视为随机应变，将别人行为当做投机取巧\n避免营造中国人时常骗来骗去，没有信用的印象\n避免无意中把自己和别人划出界线，对自己造成不利\n\n圆通和圆滑\n园通和圆滑，概念不同，一个受欢迎，圆通人士，一个都厌恶，圆滑小人。一个用推拖拉的功夫来解决问题，省时又减少许多阻力，一个毫无解决问题的诚意。\n文明的冲突\n西方与非西方关系的中心问题是：在全球范围内推广西方文化的努力与其推广能力下降这两者之间的不协调。在西方眼中的普世主义，对于非西方来说就是帝国主义。\n中国的历史，文化，传统，规模，经济活力和自我形象，都驱使它在东亚寻求一种霸权地位，这个目标是中国经济迅速发展的自然结果。\n李光耀在94年曾说：中国参与世界地位重组的规模，使得世界必须在30或40年的时间内找到一种平衡。假装中国不过是另一个大的参与者是不可能的，它是人类历史上最大的参与者。\n\n中国官方的主流观点是不倾向于赞同“文明的冲突”这一观点的，如果承认文明的冲突，那就是在文明之间区分优劣。\n\n危险化学反应\n在宏观层面，最主要的分裂是在西方与非西方之间，未来的危险冲突可能会在西方的傲慢，伊斯兰国家的不宽容和中国的武断的相互作用下发生。\n中印有别\n中国是一个伪装为国家的文明，印度是一个伪装为国家的宗教。\n\n印度对人的分类层次很多，贱民称为不可触摸者，认为他们是不洁净的，因为他们从事的是不洁净的职业，例如清扫，制革等等，下等是不能进入上等人的领域的，其宗教里的种姓制度明显。\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"中国汽车数据分析","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.html","content":"\n数字会说话\n有车家庭比例\n中国有车家庭占全国的 42%，有车比例家庭最高的 5 个省市区依次是江苏，山东，浙江，河北，天津。这 5 个省市有车家庭比例在 49%以上，江苏达到 51%。\n占比最低的 5 个省市区依次是黑龙江，海南，甘肃，吉林，广西，有车率在 35%以下，倒数第一的黑龙江只有 27%。\n23 年购车量排名\n分省份来看，哪些省买车最多呢，2023 年购买乘用车最多的5 个省依次是广东，江苏，浙江，山东，河南。五个省共卖出 856 万辆，占到全国总销量 41%，需求可见强劲。具体到城市，则依次是北京，上海，成都，广州，郑州。\n\n如下数字均以 23 年销售为基准\n\n车价\n大家现在买车主要是买什么价位的车呢？23 年乘用车销售总额约 4.26 万亿，卖出 2606.3 万辆，全国车价平均值16.3w，也符合 7 普数据。\n\n七普全国有车家庭拥有 10w~20w 汽车的中国家庭最多，比例高达 42%，\n其次是拥有 10w 以下汽车的家庭，比例达到 39%，这两部分加起来已经高达 81%。\n拥有 30w 以上豪车的家庭，全国只有 7.95%，你开 30w 以上的车子，在全国来说已经是 10 里挑一的精英选手，但在魔都仅是1/4的好手( Ĭ ^ Ĭ )。\n\n\npie showData title 车价家庭分布\n    \"~10w\" : 39.35\n    \"10w~20w\" : 42\n    \"20w~30w\" : 10.7\n    \"30w~50w\" : 5.2\n    \"50w~100w\" : 2.1\n    \"100w+\" : 0.65\n车型\n2023 汽车销量前十的分别为特斯拉 Model Y，轩逸，比亚迪海豚，速腾，比亚迪秦 Plus，比亚迪元 Plus，长安 CS75，五菱宏光 Mini，凯美瑞，比亚迪海鸥，只有特斯拉 Model Y价高点，次之为凯美瑞，多数车价都不贵。\n具体到车企，23 年前五是比亚迪，一汽大众，吉利，长安，上汽大众。\n阵营\n现今销量国产车已经成为销售主流，占56%，德系占 17.8%，日系占 14.4%，美系占8.8%。\npie showData title 23车辆销量阵营\n    \"国产\" : 56\n    \"德系\" : 17.8\n    \"日系\" : 14.4\n    \"美系\" : 8.8\n豪车售往哪\n豪车（30w+）都是谁在买呢，豪车占比最高的省份有哪些？\n七普数据豪车家庭占比最高的 5 个依次为上海（23.8% - 接近路上4 量车中一辆 30w 以上的车），北京（20.5%），浙江（18.6%），西藏（12.6%），广东（12%），全国各省豪车中位数是 6.2%\n最低的 5 个省份是山西（2.8%）、河北（3.5%）、河南（3.6%）、黑龙江（3.7%）、甘肃（4.1%）。\n在上海看到豪车的概率要比山西高出 8 倍多，相当于戴了 8 倍镜。\n产业的重要性\n有车对中国经济多重要呢？中国的吃、喝、穿、用商品零售总额全部加在一起 4.35 万亿，而汽车类零售总额则高达 4.86 万亿，全国人民用来购买汽车和零部件的钱比全国人民的吃喝穿用总花费还要高，汽车对中国经济的带动效应可想而知。\n按需消费\n汽车就像手表，对普通人而言不过是个工具，对于有社交需求的人而言，就是行走的名片，象征着实力和身份，马斯克赚到钱也买了迈凯伦，购车算是人类的一种孔雀开屏行为。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"中年的意义","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E4%B9%89.html","content":"\n人类取得食物的整个系统都很独特，成年成员取得卡路里的能力，会随着学习狩猎和采集技巧而不断提升，中年人为社群取得资源的能力一向最强。年轻个体除了基因会得到另外一种形式的中重要信息—跟长辈学习\n**中年人则擅长分析，计划，组织和文化延续，**见树又见林，可称为洞察力。\n人脑能力进化的驱动\n人类取得食物的整个系统都很独特，大部分灵长类会消耗大量养分含量低，但非常容易获取的食物，灵长类中，人类特别擅长取得埋在土里，有外壳，外层有毒或跑得比我们快的食物，专门找需要技巧才能取得的各式宝贵食物（要靠寻找，挖掘，剥皮，智取），而这大概是我们变得如此聪明的主要因素之一（当时扳机可能是200万年前的气候变迁，人类为适应草原扩张的干旱气候而待在没有遮蔽的地方），人类需要时间来学习这些技巧。\n现代狩猎采集的社会中，成年成员取得卡路里的能力，会随着学习狩猎和采集技巧而不断提升，狩猎采集者在25-30岁之间取得食物的能力会提高3倍，取得食物的能力在45岁达到巅峰（黑猩猩大多活不到那个岁数），45岁，狩猎采集者的体力逐渐变差，骨质量和灵活度也开始下降，但他们拥有多年的实践经验，所以还是胜过年轻的同伴，中年人为社群取得资源的能力一向最强。\n\n灵长类群落大多可以全体一起四处游荡，轻松捡食食物，但人类不可能这样，高超的狩猎采集需要技巧和灵活性，不可能同时带着小孩和双亲，所以人类必须分工。对南美狩猎采集者进行的研究显示，每对夫妻在抚养子女时，平均会得到另外1.4个成年人的帮助。\n中年人的功效\n人类的觅食模式与众不同，中年人在其中起到了关键作用，而频繁的重新分配食物关系重大，也许正是人类高度社会性的基础，而高度社会性或许是我们头脑如此发达的另一个重要原因。\n只有人类在青春期会有十多年的发育过程，人类演化出青春期是为了把无敌的发达头脑发育的更完美，而头脑正是我们这个物种得以成功进化的关键。\n\n人类幼儿的头脑以惊人的速度消耗能量，吸收知识，需要的能源远大于其它人猿婴儿。我们的物种是需要高投资，密集信息的。\n新生儿87%的能量被发育中的大脑消耗掉，一万年前的人得打猎才能得到这一切能量。和其它灵长类比起来，人类儿童死亡率很低，一个原因就是我们不让孩子参与狩猎和采集，在生病的时候，其他人还会为他们提供食物。\n\n年轻时，我们庞大的头脑需要非常多的能量，常常需要由父母之外的人提供，我们背后的这种支持也束缚了我们，让我们受制于紧密的社会协作，而这种协作需要更大的脑容量，人类处在一个智力，技术和社会性的良性循环之中，而驱动这个循环的力量正是中年人。\n养育一个儿童，不仅需要食物，还需要信息，大部分信息存在于基因中，许多动物到所有信息都在基因里，但在哺乳类（尤其是人类）这么复杂的动物中，年轻个体会得到另外一种形式的中重要信息—跟长辈学习。\n基因外文化的塑造\n将学到的信息以非基因的方式传承格外重要，因为其中包含日常生活中用得上的大量信息，知识，技术，价值观，态度和目标都会代代相传，而这种信息的集合体或许可以称为“文化”。人类用老练的手段搜集食物，用复杂的方式照顾后代，有繁复的社会互动，因此年轻人需要习得许多文化。\n基因可以延续几百万年，但思想却会轻易地溜走，然而，这种待机信息传递会瞬息消逝的特质，也是它最大的优点，一个人在某个当下获得的新技能或新知识，可能在其家族，后代，盟友和朋友间迅速延续。\n人类的独特之处，在于我们可以用语言表达我们所想到的任何事，而不是像其他物种，只能通过搜集食物，使用工具和用声音传递信息。\n**人类过了生育年龄还可以活很久，就是为了扮演这种传递信息的角色。**中年人兼具经验和精力，是人类所需最有力的提供者，文化传承的重责大任非中年人莫属。世界上到处都是中年人在教导和训练青年，虽然这些青年常比中年人更聪明伶俐，中年人却因此拥有惊人的固有价值。\n人类的头脑（尤其是记忆和语言的部分）在四五十岁之间没有明显衰退，处于这一年龄段的人（无论是父母，其它亲戚，朋友还是职场的良师）所起到的主要所用是储存，传授信息。\n研究显示，老年人对支持年轻人兴趣缺缺，可能是老年人罹病或死亡的早期征兆，仿佛我们一旦不再把思想传承给年轻人，自然选择就对我们失去兴趣。\n\n这也是为什么科技工作者经常长寿的部分原因，一定要勤用脑，与年轻人多相处啊\n\n农业的影响\n在智人存在于这个星球的岁月中，有99.5%的时间不是过着定居农耕的生活（智人在过去一万年的演化，和过去200w年的演化截然不同）\n副作用–寿命更短\n在旧石器时代晚期（5万年前开始），老年人数量其实多得惊人，根据化石直接估算，老年人的数量居然在实行农业后逐渐减少，这似乎不符合大家的普通认知。问题出现在饮食的改变上，农业无可避免的使人类的食物种类不再那么丰富，他们通常只吃自己种出来的那一两种作物，因此限制了所摄取的维生素，矿物质和不同种类的蛋白质。这也表示少数几种主要作物一旦种不好，就会造成惨剧。\n现代社会的证据显示，农业会减少付出同样努力所得到的食物量。南非的狩猎采集者，不像附近几个农业社群那么辛苦，而食物又比较充裕。据估计，从事狩猎采集的哈扎族人，每天只需花5个小时张罗食物，附近的农人则需要辛勤工作一整天，才能满足一天所需。农耕出现后，儿童的四肢变得比较柔软，没那么强健。\n更多的疾病\n农业社会平均寿命减短的另一个因素是传染病。农业和聚落则给人类带来了五花八门的新疾病。首先，大部分早期人类永久聚落恐怕肮脏又拥挤，缺少污水处理系统，加上为了灌溉而减缓水道流速，只会让疾病蔓延情况加剧。现代世界最重大的疾病，起因都是人口密度过高与卫生问题，而这些状况不大可能影响从前在开阔草原上游牧的狩猎采集部落；他们只要离开自己的排泄物就好了。\n疾病更常发生的另一个因素是人类和动物间的距离拉近了，在人类开始饲养牲畜之前，大概只有在短暂的狩猎过程中才会接触到动物，而最大的风险是被践踏或吃掉。相反地，畜牧让人类与动物及其身上各种赘生物持续近距离接触。\n有了农耕，人和动物也与细菌，病毒和寄生虫接触更多，除此之外，五花八门的病原菌原来埋在土里，因为翻土而暴露在空气中，之后飘进人类的肺部或被人类的伤口吸收，所以说，农业恐怕和我们一般所认为的一样，并不是那么美好的创新，人类的疾病形式发生了改变。\n有了农业后，人们更辛勤地工作，收获却更少，食物种类变得单一，活在污秽之中，年纪轻轻就死去，这一切的苦难是为了什么呢？事实上，虽然农业让我们进入了人类的新时代，物竞天择无情的力量却仍作用在我们身上，它们是：\n唯1.5的好处\n农业需要的土地比狩猎采集少，所以人类可以在小面积的土地上定居，人口密度远比以前高，若没有农业，世界上的人类可能还只有100万人，另外，农业社群状况良好的，稳定的热量来源能使人类更多繁衍更多后代。简而言之，农耕让人类繁衍得更多，这在演化上确有意义。\n农业的形成是个了不起的现象，不仅永远改变了我们吃的食物，也迫使人类在一个地方落脚，待在靠近田地和牲畜，以及可以储存食物的地方，农业的生活方式更加重视财产，随之而来的是保护财产并将之留给后代，不让别人取得。所有人类族群在短短一千年间，从狩猎采集的生活方式转变成耕作和聚落，城市，书写和政府也随之出现。\n中年感官的退化\n男性的错觉\n几乎所有哺乳动物两性寿命差不多，人类男性似乎成了例外，不论是死于心脏病，意外，还是酒精，药物，他们甚至容易忽略自己的健康—中年男性一直觉得自己比女性健康，虽然他们实际的健康状况可能比较糟糕，这些想法错误的健康乐观主义者，不愿意寻求医疗协助的情况也是众所周知的。\n感官却有下降–年轻人做替代\n感官退化通常在中年不会被注意到，因为我们的周遭的感官信息是在过量，大脑又是个成功的信息筛子，失去部分感官其实不会造成太大的问题，另外我们的感官其实过度精细。\n\n我们的鼻子能分辨出只有一个原子差异的不同化学物质，眼睛能侦测出数量不到10个的光子闪过，耳朵可以感应比原子半径还小的震动，听起来很神奇，到40岁时，真的还需要这样吗?\n\n偶尔我们的确需要那么惊人的精准度，但我们是群居生活，附近会有年轻人提供这种能力，这并不影响中年人协调实际狩猎行动的能力。让年轻人来当我们的眼睛和耳朵吧，中年人仍然是群体中的首脑。\n大脑的缩小–未必是严重损失\n通过MRI研究观测到人类大脑的灰质体积从20-80岁会持续减少1/4，听起来像是严重损失，其实不然，未必是坏事，有效率地截除神经细胞间不需要或没用的联结，就常常会使灰质的体积减小。\n为什么时间越过越快\n\n麻蛋，日子过得这么快，当我看到一篇文章是用星际穿越的剧照做的封面，写就日期却是在2014年的时候，我就开骂了。已经接近7年过去了，当时我还在青春的尾巴上\n\n随着年纪愈发增长，时间似乎过得愈快，像在嘲讽我们似的。提了好几套观点，但我觉得靠谱的为如下内容：\n我们的记忆扭曲了，因此扭曲了时间\n记忆基准点校正\n我们知道记忆会骗人，记忆也是我们感知时间的重要依据。我们大多对最近的事件记得比较清楚，而远的就差，我们对过去一两年有个清楚的时间架构，这段时间发生的事情都彼此吻合，但只要回忆之前的事，相关的记忆就变得支离破碎，常常须借助技巧和辅助记忆，来厘清事情发生的先后顺序，例如我们用重要的基准点（像是孩子出生，搬家）校正5-20年前的小事件的相对时间，这种时间感知的缺失情形，会造成一种错觉，让人觉得时间流逝的速度变快了 。\n新鲜感缺失\n我们都有经验，第一次做某件事，感觉比以后做花费时间要漫长，新学校或新单位第一天，甚至假期第一天，时间似乎过得慢吞吞的。深陷险境时，几分之一秒的时间会戏剧性地随着主观意识而夸张的延长。比起熟悉的刺激，默认刺激需要多加思索，所以大脑给这些刺激更多主观时间，相对之下，语料中的平凡刺激几乎不可以不加留意，统统略过。\n我们年轻时，事事新奇，你还在专心探究新的应对方式，所以有人认为时间随我们长大而加速，是因为我们比较少遇到新事物，中年人的世界很好预测，而我们大脑的反应方式让我们加快参与这个世界的速度，早年的生命因新挑战而延长扩展，中年的生命却因为缺乏新经验而在眼前压缩。\n为什么新鲜感会影响我们对时间流逝的主观感知呢，或许完全是记忆的关系，中年人需要储存的记忆比较少，我们大脑认为发生的事变少了，也就是流逝的时间没那么多。\n\n一年的时光并没有变短，但参照系数一直在变大，5-6岁一年相当于增加了100%的记忆，36岁时增加的记忆只相当于原来的1/30，新内容也在降低，无法激起波澜，主观上生命的确在加速流逝\n\n如何走出困境\n增加记忆的厚度，如果每天都是三点一线简单机械的重复，那么大脑的数据库就不可能像儿时那样爆发式的增长，大脑会误认为这一个月就是一天，所以每天给自己设置一点新鲜感，其实就是主观生命的延长。\n比如翻开一本新书，结交一个新朋友，去一个没去过的餐厅吃饭，到一个陌生的地方旅行。我们或许无法左右生命的长度，只要你愿意，随时都可以改变它的宽度。\n中青年竞争\n远古时代，中年人在大草原上狩猎和采集的效率，大大胜过年轻的同伴，到了近现代，他们则更懂得在城市里赚钱，有更强的政治势力\n纵观人类历史，年轻人一直擅长求新，创新和文化变革，中年人则擅长分析，计划，组织和文化延续。这种思考方式的专门化，并不是社会强加的结果，我们的大脑在不同生命阶段会发生结构和功能的改变，而思考方式的专门化是脑部变化不可避免的结果。\n中年人参与争夺，要领先年轻人，不是靠「经验」胜过年轻人，而是靠我们可称为「洞察力」的特质。研究证实，中年人特别擅长“见树又见林”，实验显示，他们可以在脑中储存大批量的信息，也可以“退后一步”，从全局思考事情的来龙去脉，而不是被细节迷惑。\n\n例如，从中年打字员得到的证据显示，虽然他们打字的速度不像以前那么快，但大脑中可以记住的字符串更长了。\n针对中年工程师的研究表明，他们更能筛选新信息，简化问题，避免混淆。\n中年推销员被证明可以随着年龄增长，自然地发展处量身定做的全新的推销方式，使得他们自身更成功。\n\n这些适应行为都能减少脑力工作需要的能量，中年人能量效率非常高，更擅长委派工作和职责，可能是因为他们拥有全面的洞察力，使他们更容易引导其他人，尤其是年轻人。他们发现不仅解释需要做什么很容易，且也知道为什么特定的任务对于共同的努力的成功是重要的。\n古代人类的生活离不开合作，部落为了达成共同目标而合作，很清楚中年人和年轻人有不同的贡献技能，新发现的中年视角还有另一个好处：让中年人很容易确定优先级和目标，这项能力我们从前称之为“智慧”。\n一夫一妻制\n从遗传学的研究来看，一夫多妻制在人类历史上相对而言并不重要，比较X染色体和其它染色体的基因重组程度，显示人类过去女性和男性的繁殖率是1.1-1.3，这表明绝大部分是一夫一妻制，不是绝对的1：1可能的原因不只是我们的祖先偶尔会一夫多妻，他们也可能是连续式一夫一妻制，或只是出轨。\n对其他物种的研究显示，想知道某种生物的生殖模式是否为一夫一妻制，有些简单的数值可以作为完美的指标，例如体型就是很好的指标，一夫多妻的灵长类，雄性的体型通常是雌性的2倍大，而长臂猿是一夫一妻制，雌雄体型相同。人类男性体型大约是女性的1.2倍，这一现象显示，我们偏向于一夫一妻制的那端。某些生物特征对于其他物种来说是杂交的特征，如杂交物种的睾丸大，还有独特的精子形态，以增加精子在多次交配的雌性身上赢得冲向卵子的赛跑，相较之下，人类的睾丸比较小，精子显得非常没活力。\n许多人类学家现在认为，社会对连续式一夫一妻不以为然，目前的一夫一妻制其实是人为的产物，使我们对宿敌时做出的情急反应，那些宿敌就是农业和定居的生活。农耕，定居，财产和集成，可能使社会强迫成员实行终身一夫一妻制。农业革命后，人们被迫比邻而居，在空间有限，生活贫困的的状况下，男人更不能为了性而彼此竞争。这也能解释为什么很多社会对通奸会有残酷的处罚。第二个理论是，农业的出现，让人类出生的婴儿数目达到前所未有的新高，就那么一块地，如果多妻可能后代就会挨饿，因此中年男性无法离开，中年女性得到一些保障，结合之前养育人类儿童的能量消耗之困难，而社会顺之订下终身一夫一妻制。\n停经的考虑\n卵子损耗的过程会把胎儿的几百万个卵子库存，削减到最后会排卵的几百个，40岁的卵子库其实富含不正常的卵子。大部分卵子不是发育之后消失，就是根本还没发育就消失了，其实，青春期的卵子数目已经削减到50万个以下，这时甚至还没开始排卵。萎缩过程在接下来的几十年中毫不减缓，如果40岁的女性可以设法停止萎缩的过程，那么她可能仍然会保留足够的卵子来维持1000年每个月的排卵。\n为什么停经时剩下的少数卵泡不再回应脑垂体分泌的促性腺激素？卵巢如何计算剩下多少卵泡，卵巢仿佛会做这件事，比方说，卵泡会分泌一种抑制素的激素，浓度会随着卵泡减少而降低，而停经前女性生育力不规律的下降，其实会受到抑制素浓度降低的影响。\n人类演化出停经，是以为到了人生某个时候，难产死亡会让须抚育的现有子女失去母亲的风险变得很高，超过生更多孩子的好处。预期死去时留下许多孩子挨饿，不如或者照顾几个健壮的孩子。有证据支持，工业化前美国和现代发展中国家的数据显示，每多生一个子女，父母的寿命就会缩短。\n还有一种假说是“外祖母假说”，自然选择不只偏爱停止生育，活下来把后代养育到成年的女性，还有利于存活更久的女性，可以帮助照顾外孙，人类后代的需求很大，双亲的劳动力通常不足，无法替后代收集足够的资源。外祖母扮演的角色或许类似工蜂。\n荣格谈中年觉醒\n每个人都有两次生命，第一次是活给别人看的，第二次是活给自己。第二次生命常常从 40 岁开始，在此之前，你知识在探索面具人生。\n一直以来，或许你都是按照父母，老师和社会的外在要求塑造着自己，职业生涯、社会角色，甚至人际关系的处理方式，都受到这些外部压力的影响。来到中年，你开始怀疑，你一直以来追求的目标是否真正属于你？过往的胜利|成就|挣扎|失败，都只是为接下来的阶段做准备。\n早年的成就和努力或许是人生的一种必要铺垫，帮你意识到什么并不能真正让你内心深处真正满足，随着年龄增长，目标和身份问题开始浮现，人到中年大脑也发生一些变化，增强情绪调节和自我意识，这些变化使得能以宽广的视角重新审视生活和应对挑战，那些曾经看似不可动摇的目标，现在也可以被重新定义。\n转变从来都不容易，通常伴随着不适，你需要极大的勇气，踏入未知领域，面对长期存在恐惧，放弃熟悉的安全模式。面对每一个恐惧和抛弃每一个过时的信念，都会让你更接近更真实的自己。荣格认为，中年是独特的人生转变的机会，发现并融入你一直想成为的那个人。这不是危机，而是一种觉醒，是一种超越他人期望，重新发现真实自我的独特机会。中年的觉醒是迈向个性化的过程，这是一种整合自我所有部分的旅程，包括意识、潜意识、光明和阴暗。个性化不是摧毁过去的生活，而是重新评估价值观和优先事项，或许外在的成就和成功变得不再那么重要，或许更加重要。剥离那些不再契合自己的东西，重新与内在自我建立连接的旅程。这个生命的阶段邀请你向内探索。\n直面阴影，深层的自我接纳。阴影是荣格哲学中最有力的核心概念之一。阴影代表了你隐藏的部分，包括未实现的梦想，你的恐惧，欲望和脆弱。年轻时我们常常忽略这些部分，以换取成功和社会的认可。真是这种对抗，你才有机会真正的成长。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"中餐的生命力","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E9%A4%90%E6%8A%B5%E5%BE%A1%E9%A5%AE%E9%A3%9F%E8%A5%BF%E5%8C%96.html","content":"\n中国可能是全球唯一一个能成功抵御饮食西化和快餐化的国家。\n环球扫视\n韩国曾是稻米生产国，2k 年后面粉就成了第一大口粮，导致韩国粮食自给率从 80 年代的自给自足跌到30%，同时韩国年轻人还在加速抛弃传统韩餐，对外宣传的美食也成了韩式炸鸡。这些在日本，泰国，印度等亚洲虽保留传统本土饮食，但年轻人的饮食习惯在快速抛弃传统饮食，拥抱西式吃法。至于菲律宾，非洲，拉美这些早年西方殖民地饮食早已全盘西化，太平洋岛国更夸张，因为 70 年代美国快餐文化的冲击，大量美国快餐食品的边角料 0 关税进入，现在汤加街头很难看到一个瘦子。\n世界级餐饮资本对人类饮食结构的基本判断是，快餐化一定是普通人饮食结构演变的主要方向，全球饮食西化、快餐化，成了蓝星的整体趋势。好像唯独在中国，阻力重重。\n中国生产了全球 80%的罐头，但我们人均年销量只有2公斤，不到美国的 1/10，中国是面条的起源国，作为穷人美食，中国人均方便面销量远低于日韩，也不如越南，甚至还不如一些非面食传统国家。中国人的胃喜欢吃现做出来的热乎乎的饭菜，使得快餐和工业化食品成本相对较高，始终无法大幅攻入底层市场。\n剖析\n法餐、意餐，土餐，有着丰富的烹饪技巧和恰到好处的味蕾把控，都不错，高档的印餐香料的层次感也非常棒，昂贵的上层菜就没有难吃的，但平头老百姓能吃好的却不多。法国人平时就是面包香肠沙拉，德国人吃土豆拌猪肉，美国人吃烤肉淋酱汁，留学生都知道，不是没有好吃的馆子，是真舍不得吃。\n\n护城河\n而中餐不一样，中餐下沉，路边几块钱的炒饭也会放满料打火现做香气扑鼻，几十块的炒菜更是花样丰富，中国能用最简单食材来打造魔法，中国人挑剔的口味和厨师内卷的手艺堪称相辅相成，中国厨师几乎没有不能做的食材，和外国厨师形成反向对比，在中国，每一种食材的最大可能性都会被挖掘出来，中国厨师去到全球都能利用当地特色食材做出特色中餐。\n中国饮食的韧性源自深厚的文明积淀，在《齐民要术》记载的年代，就掌握了「急火快炒」的烹饪智慧，也塑造了中国人食不厌精的味觉审美。而日韩的传统饮食，受限于岛国的地理环境，发展的是以保存性食物为主的饮食文化，日本的饭团，韩国的泡菜，本质都是物质匮乏时期的生存智慧，西式快餐带着工业化的便利性袭来时，这些传统饮食抵抗力就不足了。\n中国的菜系形成的了一套复杂而完备的体系（难以替代），日韩料理多依赖简单加工如生食、蒸煮，新中国成立后，政府整理了散落民间的烹饪秘籍，让传统技艺得以大规模传承。中餐化身一位身怀绝技的武林高手，在平民化市场筑起难以攻破的护城河。\n菜篮子生鲜网络\n不仅是食材多样性，中国对新鲜食材的追求从未停止，今天的菜篮子工程也是饮食传统的现代化延续，当美国主妇开车半小时才能买到一把香菜，巴黎市民为两颗青菜付出半天工资时，中国主妇正在楼下菜市场从容挑选晚餐食材。遍布全国的生鲜供应网络，也是中国抵御饮食西化的秘密武器。中国市民平均步行 15 分钟就能到达一个食材采购点。这种便利性在全球堪称奇迹。\n对「饭」一词的执念\n外国人对饭的理解和中国人根本不在一个量级，白人就算一年不开火，也不耽误他们吃饭。而在中国人们对悲惨生活的一种形容就是一口热乎的都吃不上，中国人在桌子上吃的才是饭，其它形式只能叫随便吃点，外面买的快餐，垃圾食品不是饭，自己做的糊弄餐也不是饭，只能算食物，零食，这种吃撑了也不算饭。\n也不要夜郎自大\n家乡味是所有人刻在骨子里的执着，中国人偏爱中餐偶尔吃上一顿西餐也行，但天天吃西餐保证你生不如死。老外一样不一定适应天天正品中餐。如白人更接受并热爱的是跟自己家乡味接近的食物，如拌酸奶的面条，放醋的手抓饭，炸一切加甜辣酱的组合，全球各地各有所爱。欲罢不能正是的家乡味，你我均难以免俗，你可以不理解，但尊重。\n结语\n虽我们会看到快餐化食物在中国出现的范围和频率变高，但中餐的文化和底蕴是绝不可能被取代的。正餐快餐化和正餐聚餐化会同步发展，中餐店做不大或许是我们的幸运（美国的贫困性肥胖与食品工业紧密结合，戒糖比戒毒都难，肥胖人口和中国数量一样多）。筷子握住的不仅是美食，也是文化延续的密码。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"为什么女性有永久性乳房","url":"/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html","content":"\n题记\n文章围绕的是永久性乳房在自然界作为个100%不利的变异，为何在人类中得以遗传发展的原始层面的探究，不乏犀利的观点，还有和编码领域【不是编程亦可看作程序出错】相关的思想火花。\n当时这篇文章最早出现在译言，那时译言的宣传语还是一个很中二的啥子“百年之前梁启超。。。。。翻译使中国强盛之类的语句”，不过对于上面所有兄弟姐妹的热情和诚意我是100个佩服，甚至也想利用自己的闲余时间贡献一把。访问期间在上面看到过不少有意思的东西，译言被强制关闭过一次，之后就访问的很少了。这篇文章觉得是最有意思，最有思想火花的。在IT行业做的越久，越是觉得中国人在独创性方面越来越被甩得远（在Web2.0 copy american to china的年代这种感觉很明显）。\n这篇文章吧，虽文字确有些多，也希望有人能喜欢，虽然标题比较吓人。\n为什么女性有永久性乳房\n是个问题吗？是的\n很多人可能会认为标题中的这个问题很愚蠢，因为答案很明显：女人有乳房是为了喂养婴儿。实际上，这是一个很好的问题，因为为何几乎所有女性都有乳房是一个谜。大多数女性在目前这个时间并没有分泌乳汁，但是她们拥有乳房。\n如果乳房仅仅是为了喂养婴儿，那么大多数女性就不会拥有它了。如果真是如此，那么乳房只会在怀孕的时候才发育出来，而且在女人们停止母乳喂养之后又会消失。人类中女性在青春期乳房得到发育，而且在年老之后仍然保留乳房，不管她们是否怀孕，这点在动物世界中是独一无二的。它需要一个解释。\n生长乳房是有代价的\n\n小母牛在到了为喂养自己的小牛而产出牛奶的时候乳房才得到发育。一旦小牛断了奶，小母牛（如今是一只“奶牛”）的奶水枯竭，乳房消失。就像任何身体组织一样，生长乳房是有代价的。生长和维持乳房需要营养，而且乳房本身对于快速移动是一个障碍。确实，突出的乳房完全就是不必要的。这种突起物会毁坏海豹那符合流体动力学的外形，它们能够设法在没有乳房的情况下给自己的幼崽喂奶。一个女人在不需要乳房的情况下长出乳房，需要为此付出营养上和敏捷性上的代价。如果这样做有代价，那么它必须有一种益处，来解释为什么人类进化出这种特征。我们知道这个特征是人类所独有的，所以很有可能对此的解释可以从一些其他同样也是仅为人类所特有的特质中找到。\n令人惊讶的是关于这个话题的著作非常少。有少量短篇的论文是很久以前写出来的，而且其中的大多数都被后来的作者所批驳。重复对于许多早期理论的证伪已经没有多少意义了。参阅参考书目以做进一步阅读（特别是Cant, John G.H.1981年发表的那本书）。\n素食的女人，肉食的男人\n我们的祖先是猎人，他们能生存下来主要依靠吃其他的动物。其他的狩猎物种，像狗、猫和鼬，它们的成年雌性可能只有在自己怀孕后期或是照料年幼的后代的时候才停止狩猎。没有乳房，狩猎也足够困难了。所以乳房的阻碍作用被降低到了最小程度——它们只有在分泌乳汁的时候才发育。食草的兽群，像奶牛、绵羊和鹿必须能够比自己在兽群中的邻居跑得更快才能逃脱捕食者，所以拥有无用的乳房就相当于请别人吃你。大多数哺乳动物依靠速度来逃脱被捕食的命运，所以甚至独居的食草动物最好也是在合适的时候再发育乳房。\n劳动分工冲销代价\n然而，人类却不是依赖速度来躲避捕食者的，这是一个非常重要的不同点。很少有会攻击一群人的动物，而且人类会利用团体策略，火、武器、投射物和类似的东西来防御自己。任何强大到足以打倒像成年女性这么大动物的物种，都可以如此轻易地在速度上超过她，以至于脚的速度根本就不是一个问题。人类女性成群地搜寻食物，而在这样做有危险的地方，部落派遣有武装的年轻男孩，偶尔也有更年长的男人，来守卫女人。大多时候女人们都在营地里，在火堆旁边，很少有动物敢到那种地方冒险。因此，人类女性在进化过程中为发育乳房付出的代价相比于其他动物来说小了很多。在更新世（大约起始于两百万年前，终于一万年前，当时地球大多被冰雪覆盖，译者注），很少有怀胎的女性丧命于捕食者口下。她们允许被不分泌乳汁时的乳房妨碍。\n换言之，劳动分工使得未生产时的乳房成为可能。我们父辈祖先的行为像食肉动物，需要能够自由地跑、跳来狩猎，而我们母辈祖先的行为更像食草动物，成群地收集食物。一个未产妇（nullipara）是还没有生过孩子的女性。很奇怪的是，我们都知道“处女”这个词，却很少有人知道“未产妇”这个词。\n以上我们解释了进化出存在于不分泌乳汁时的乳房是如何成为可能的，但是这距离解释为什么它们最终被进化出来还有很远的距离。\n美丽的羽毛，美丽的乳房？\n一旦我们确立了进化出乳房的可能，那么持进化论的科学家可以争论，乳房可以进化为性别特征。它们可能就像孔雀的尾巴一样，是对于异性的主观的信号。孔雀的尾巴是很大的、扇状的、绿色的，上面有很多“眼状斑点”。其他的鸟类拥有长的、逐渐变细的尾巴，或是鲜明的红色羽毛。似乎进化出什么类型的羽毛并不重要，只要它可以被辨识，属于每一物种，而且引起异性对它的偏爱。一旦雌孔雀开始认为带有斑点的、扇状的绿色尾巴是迷人的，那么它们就乐于和符合这种描述而且拥有最美丽的尾巴的雄性交配。人类的乳房也可能是以相同的主观的方式进化的。这可能会导致我们相信“费舍尔压倒性优势选择学说（Fisherian run-away selection）”，并迅速地致使一种物种进化出例如颜色鲜亮的羽毛、喉部肉垂和鸡冠，以及或许乳房这样的特征。费舍尔的逻辑是说一旦男人发觉乳房很迷人，那么女人就有选择的压力使自己长出乳房，因此她们变得更加迷人，于是又有更大的压力使男人们认为她们迷人。\n经典的费舍尔的例子就是孔雀的尾巴，我要向已经读过这个例子很多遍的进化论者道歉。然而在孔雀中，雄性是更加美丽的。一只雄孔雀的尾巴似乎有种天生的美，人类因此认为它美丽，不过它们并不是为了让我们观赏而设计的。人类的乳房呈现在观赏者面前一层套一层的圆环。我们很容易想象在这样的设计中也有一种天生的美丽。在人类中，这是相反的：女性是更美丽的，而男性则都令人惊讶得丑陋。在大多数物种当中，雌性是生育后代的，它们必须对于掩饰这类行为比较敏感，所以不能过于艳丽。不过即使大多数雄性因为阻碍行动的羽毛而被猎杀，这也没有关系，因为剩下的雄性会对所有雌性受精，而且由于它们设法生存了下来，它们很可能会拥有最好的基因。这种情况最极端的表现形式就是某些物种中雄性很少甚至不参与抚养后代。然而，人类中男性比较多地投入到抚养后代中，因此男人更加有价值。正如之前所说，即使被乳房阻碍，成年女性由于被捕食造成的死亡数目仍然如此之低，以至于上述这条法则在人类中性别是反过来的。\nGeoffrey Miller在自己的《The Mating Mind》(2000)一书中令人信服地论述了乳房是由性的选择（sexual selection）来选择的。就像其他类似的特征一样，它们凸显出性别间的差别；它们在骨骼上无从辨认；它们的大小在个体间存在很大差异；它们在青春期后开始变大；它们在性兴奋的时候充血；所有的文化都将其视为性别符号，而且很多文化以切去乳房作为一种性侵犯；在全世界它们都被凸显以示性感，或是被掩饰以减少有关性的注意。乳房大小差异如此之大是表明它们不像手或眼睛那么有实用价值的线索。\n不自然的设计规划\n在分泌乳汁之前乳房主要由脂肪组成。乳房在哺乳期开始大约八个月后产出最多的乳汁。然而，在最初八个月的哺乳期中，乳房的大小是最大的。似乎实际上脂肪阻碍了乳汁的产生，所以需要八个月的时间来改变乳房的构造，来达到最高的效率，并除去装饰性的脂肪。\n乳头位于那个位置并不是用来高效地哺乳的。当我们要打破一个桶，放出里面的液体时，我们不会在桶一半高的地方开口。一个更加高效的方法是在桶底开一个口。这样可以更好地得到乳汁（重力喂养），并且让婴儿更容易吮吸。对于乳头位置的一种可能的解释是，当它指向上面时显得更加诱人。同时这样不会显得下垂，因为它几乎从不直接指向下面（看看下文就可以知道为什么这点如此重要）。另一种解释是这种设计在几何学上的完美让观看者可以看到最微小的瑕疵。眼睛可以轻易察觉一个圆是否是一个正圆，它内部的一个圆是否和它同心。如果乳房的外形是用来观赏的，那么它的设计中就应该有些方面是特别难以做到正好合适的。\n装饰作用-越大越好吗？\n乳房在不哺乳的时候有非常重要的装饰作用。\n所以，越大越好，对吗？\n如果费舍尔压倒性优势选择学说能够解释人类乳房的进化，那么可能会有人认为乳房会长得越来越大。不过，这个过程中有许多制约因素。\n首先，乳房还有另外一个重要的功能：某一天它们需要被用来给婴儿哺乳。拥有很大乳房的女性描述说她们很难用母乳喂养婴儿。婴儿难以吸住乳头，而且他们可能会窒息。被严重拖累的母亲往往需要用双手来喂养婴儿。在我们祖先进化过程中所处的环境（进化适应环境（Environment of Evolutionary Adaption））中，母乳喂养应该是很重要的。如果没有母亲的乳汁，婴儿会死亡[1]。母乳喂养需要很多时间，而更新世的婴儿可能需要比现在的婴儿所需更长的母乳喂养期。低估由于需要用双手来喂养孩子而付出的时间上的代价是不明智的。频繁的少量喂养对于母亲来说远比偶尔的大量喂养更加高效和舒适。乳汁在乳房中贮存了没几个小时后就会导致乳汁分泌的迅速较少，而乳房也会由于充血而感到不适。我们的母辈祖先希望继续采集食物和喂养婴儿的工作，而喂养每个小孩可能需要两年的时间。\n另一种错误的“越大越好”的论据是认为男人觉得丰满的乳房性感，因为他们知道这样自己的孩子就不会挨饿了。实际上，未产妇的乳房主要含有的是脂肪，而不是可以分泌乳汁的组织。它们几乎完全无法表明将来这个女人能够分泌多少乳汁。乳房通常在哺乳期的前八个月变大。另外，能够分泌比实际需要量更多的乳汁并不是一种优势。一旦一个女人为了喂养孩子已经分泌了足够多的乳汁，任何剩余的产出都是浪费的废物。几乎所有女人都可以分泌足够多的乳汁来喂养一个孩子。乳汁的分泌会增加，以满足需求，所以一个生育了一对双胞胎的女人会分泌更多的乳汁[2]。\n另外一个对于乳房大小的限制是它越是丰满，重力对它的不利影响就越快显露出来。下垂的乳房是年龄的象征，而在所有的文化中，年轻女人都是迷人的。一个年轻的新娘很可能会为男人生下更多的孩子，所以长出大到加速自己衰老的乳房是很不明智的。\n还有一个限制则是一对东西长得越大，就越是难以让它们保持对称。身体的对称是健康的表现，而且它似乎在包括人类的多数物种中被用来作为评判配偶的一个重要标准。只有非常健康的女人才可以长出一对丰满而又对称的乳房。\n因此，可能费舍尔压倒性优势选择学说在人类乳房进化中得到了体现，使乳房成为了性的装饰，但是一部分限制因素随后又限制了人类外形的变化程度。\n性感对吗\n它们很性感，你真傻！\n对于这个谜团的下一个显而易见的答案是男人觉得乳房性感，所以女人进化出乳房。然而，需要再说一次的是，这还不够。是的，男人的确认为乳房有性的吸引力，但是问题是为什么他们这样认为？可能有人说我们喜欢吃，所以去获取食物。这不是“我们为什么吃东西”的答案。我们吃东西是因为不吃东西会死。我们喜欢吃东西是因为过去那些喜欢吃东西的人更努力地获取食物，于是因此遗传下来了更多基因。愉悦除了自己本身还有一个目的。男人认为乳房性感必定是因为它们是某些值得知晓的东西的信号。男人们尤其认为乳房性感，这表明乳房是女人某样优良的特性的非常可靠的指示物——它们是“诚实的指示物”。\n一种对于以上理论的反驳是在一些女人习惯于袒胸的文化中，男人并不认为乳房性感。我要驳斥这种观点：我们不说女人的脸是性感的，多半是因为我们一直都可以看到它。但是如果我给一个典型的英国人看一张Celia Johnson（四十年代英国著名影星）的照片，那么他肯定会说自己在照片中看到的是一个有魅力的女人。女人身上任何向男人传达出其优良特质的身体部位都是性感的。\n敌对理论\nWroclaw（波兰一城市）的Boguslaw Pawlowski博士在1999年提出了一种对于永久乳房的解释。他写道当人类不再生活于树上和森林中，而是转移到平原以后，他们进化出了一层皮下脂肪用以隔挡新环境中的寒冷。雌性激素同时负责女孩体内这种脂肪的形成和乳房的发育。乳房是拥有适量脂肪的象征，而男人们认为这样性感，因为胖的女性往往生出更易于生存的胖小孩。这个理论的一个障碍在于，男人肯定也能从这种皮下脂肪中受益，然而男人体内的这种皮下脂肪大大少于女性。他用了雌性激素会“扰乱男性的男性化过程”，以及男性需要变得更加敏捷以进行狩猎和打斗来解释这个问题。我认为即使一层脂肪可以起作用，那么一个敏捷灵活的男人也可能会在夜里冻僵。男人有时候也需要睡觉。\n那层脂肪对于女人很重要，这点是可以肯定的。女人体内需要拥有一定量的脂肪才能够生育[3]。以前，要想变胖要困难许多。现代的饮食让它变得容易。如今，多数成功的职业女性田径运动员瘦得无法生育，他们不排卵。\n进化让男人发觉能够生育的女人迷人，而不能生育的女人就没有吸引力。多数男人自然更喜欢迷人的模特的曲线美，而不是无生育能力的女运动员的精瘦身材（Polivy 1986）。这为女人增加一点点脂肪提供了足够的理由。在我们祖先所生活的过去，女人不用狩猎也意味着她们可以肆意地增加脂肪。而食物的储存和隔离很可能也是有用的，因为为了略显丰满的体态所付出的代价并不高。\n对于男人来说乳房可以作为女人拥有了足够脂肪的标志。我同样也不觉得这是个好的解释。人类利用对别人的一瞥来搜集关于对方的信息的能力是很强的。女人可以简单地用拥有多得足以生育的脂肪来向男人发出信号，告诉他们自己拥有足够的脂肪来生育。这样就可以显示了[4]。而且，如果男人把乳房看成是拥有生育需要的足够的脂肪的信号，那么女人可能会进化为有的长乳房，有的不长乳房，以此作为一种欺骗性的信号。她们可以不长乳房，来隐藏自己的脂肪，或者可以利用不足的脂肪长出具有欺骗作用的乳房，来显示自己丰满而能够生育。这和我们的观察不符。**如果乳房仅仅是脂肪贮存量的一种信号，那么男人为什么会认为丰满的乳房和苗条的身材的结合是有吸引力的？**为什么一个非常胖的女人仍然长着一对乳房？Singh（1995）发现无论在长期还是短期的恋爱中，不管女人其他部位长得怎么样，男人都更喜欢丰满而对称的乳房。\n在我看来，Pawlowski的理论太过依赖于激素的作用了。认为激素有一些先天的作用是一个常见的错误。试想在一场战争中，某个男人是炮兵的前进观察员。他被告知如果看到敌人在西面的山谷中就点燃绿色的信号弹，而如果看到敌人在北面的山谷中就点燃白色的信号弹。他在北面山谷看到了敌人，然后点燃了白色的信号弹。几分钟后，他看到了敌军部队中的巨大爆炸。“我的天呐！”他想到，“这枚信号弹的威力真大！”实际上，信号弹对于敌人没有任何作用。真正起作用的是传递给在他身后成百上千炮兵的那个任意的信号。炮兵对于信号做出回应，遵循了事先预定的计划，向地图上的一处网格参考点开火。如果炮兵们不在那里，或者他们没有被告知白色信号弹代表的意义，那么信号弹就不会有任何效果。在另一个星期里，可能又会安排不同的密码，白色信号弹可能会代表完全不同的意义。\n在动物中，激素就好像那些信号弹。他们没有先天的作用，对它们的响应是可变的。同样的激素对于某个物种可能有某种作用，而对于另一个物种中又有另一种作用。它可以在某种动物生命中的不同时期对其产生不同的作用。同种激素在同一物种的不同个体间可以产生不同的反应。生物进化出了对于激素的存在的不同反应。人类女性进化出了乳房和皮下脂肪，作为对于雌性激素的响应。她们同时也进化出了对于同种化学物质的其他响应。如果睾丸激素既导致了深沉的嗓音，又导致了胡子的生成，那么它真是一种不同寻常的化学物质。事实是它只是一种信号，是进化让男人对于这种信号做出长出胡子和声音变得低沉的回应。他们可能会进化成以在耳朵上长出很多绿色的小斑点作为对于睾丸激素的回应，但是他们没有那样进化。\n同一种激素导致女人长出乳房和皮下脂肪不能解释女人长有乳房这个事实。患有库兴氏综合征的女人由于激素问题变得十分肥胖，但是他们并不长出丰满的乳房。在这里，不是雌性激素，而是皮质醇在起作用[5]。女人的身体对这个信号做出身体变胖的回应，而不是长出巨大的乳房。如果脂肪是用于隔挡寒冷，那么在乳房中增加脂肪并不有效。似乎身体可以产生一种机理，在不生长乳房的情况下长出用以隔离寒冷的脂肪，如果身体可以产生这种机理，那么它就会产生这种机理。导致永久的乳房的应该还有另外原因。\n大障碍\n我认为多数其他理论失误的地方在于它们在时间上都没有回溯到足够早的年代。我们有充足的理由推测曾经有一段时间我们的母辈祖先在不哺乳的时候是没有乳房的。我们和黑猩猩有着共同的祖先，而它们就没有永久的乳房。在过去的某个时期，原始人只在需要分泌乳汁的时候才长出乳房。如果永久的乳房是作为性的装饰物而得到进化的，那么我们首先必须思考当时的男人的色欲是什么。\n如果乳房只在需要乳汁的时候才得到发育，那么当一个男人看到一个女人拥有乳房的时候，他就知道她可能将要生产了，她正在生产，或者她正在给婴儿哺乳。一个孕妇是无法再怀上另一个孩子的。一个正在生产的女人是很忙的。而一个正在用母乳喂养孩子的女人是很难怀孕的。母乳喂养是一种有效的避孕剂。如今通过现代高脂肪的膳食可能可以让正在母乳喂养阶段的女人怀孕，但是在更新世，可以做到这点的必需是一个罕见的营养良好的女人。在以狩猎为生的群居人群中，母乳喂养使分娩不会过于集中。因此，一对乳房对于一个注意观察的远古的男人来说，就很像是现代社会中一块写着“我现在不能生育。不要费力气尝试和我交配，你只会浪费自己的精子”的霓虹灯标牌。\n简而言之，乳房曾经并不是催情剂，相反它只会让人“扫性”。人们认为更新世时期的女人花自己生育期的一半时间来分泌乳汁，远多于如今的女性。因此，女性是否有乳房对于当时的男人来说是一个非常重要的信号。\n男人会进化出适合于当时的女人的好色本性。因此永久乳房的进化还有一个巨大的障碍有待清除。首先在生育之前就长出乳房的女人肯定在吸引优良配偶的时候遇到了巨大的困难。一个男人的本能会警告他不要和这样的女人交配，因为他看上去已经怀孕了，所以她的第一个孩子不会是自己的，而且她在很长一段时间里都不能产下自己的孩子。他可能会被误会，但是如果他依据自己的信念行事，那么这个女人就只有很小的机会和他交配。\n一旦这个障碍被清除，那么乳房就可以自由地作为费舍尔的主观特征进化，或是以各种良好基因的广告的身份得以进化。直到那以前，所有其他的解释都是无用的。\n女人是特殊的\n女人是人类，尽管男性观察者会告诉你不同的结论，而人类和其他的动物在很多方面是不同的。正如我用人类的独特性来解释为什么乳房可以不用顾忌累赘的代价而得到进化一样，我会用同样的方法通过人类的独特性来解释最早拥有永久的乳房的女人是如何设法克服她们的问题的。\n如果最早拥有永久乳房的女人是女人特质的优良实例，那么她们设法说服一些男人和她们交配就显然不是那么难以置信的了。女人也有性欲（我在这方面是杰出的权威），所以她们有实现这个举措的动机，特别是在遭遇了一段时间的白眼之后。\n女人是秘密的\n\n另一个关于人类的奇怪的事情是女性是偷偷地排卵的\n\n对此现在广为接受的理论是女人偷偷排卵，以此让男人们猜测。如果一个男人知道一个女人生育能力不强，那么他就不太可能去努力讨好她的的孩子，讨好她，给他提供肉或者类似的东西。相反，他会有动机去别的地方寻找更有生育能力的配偶。雄性黑猩猩只有在看到雌性拥有丰满的粉红色臀部这个表明其生育能力的信号时才会对雌性产生兴趣。一个被蒙在鼓里的男人需要和一个女人有一种长时间的契约，需要在让她怀孕之前和她交配很多次。最近一项研究显示，女人在自己处于生育能力的顶峰时更有可能和性感的男人上演风流韵事。这些都是女人的优势，同时也是男人的劣势。如果女人是为了自己的优势而进化出这种保密的，那么她们仍然只在怀孕的时候发育乳房的事实就会有毁掉这整个效果的威险。乳房意味着哺乳，而哺乳意味着孩子和暂时的不能生育。这是男人可以利用的优势。\n我认为进化出永久乳房的一个原因是为了维持秘密排卵的绝对优势。我的想法是秘密排卵和永久乳房大约实在同意时期进化出来的。\n她们是怎么做到的？\n第一批拥有永久乳房的狡猾的女人能够得到自己地区中最好的精子。她们能够做到这些多亏了许多的优势，包括如下所有：\n女人可以说话，而且可以比其他任何动物更加有效地撒谎。虽然她们有乳房这个缺点，这些说话和撒谎的能力使得她们可以得到她们梦想的男人和精子。人类是生存时间很长的社会动物。一个男人可以因为一个女人的人格魅力、智慧和善良而爱上她。当一个和如此熟悉的女人交欢的机会摆在眼前时——这种情节他可能已经想象过一百遍了——他会很容易被说服去和她交欢，即使他对她胸前那对摆动的东西有一点点厌恶。他总是可以闭上眼睛不去看它们。\n那些第一批拥有永久乳房的女人的伴侣很可能不会对于自己的女人是否只和自己交欢过于警惕，因为很显然那些女人的生育能力并不是很强。当一个女人生育了一个孩子，因此证明自己有生育能力的时候，她的伴侣只会在她的乳房消失的时候才会堤防自己的情敌。直到那以前，他会错误地以为自己可以放松警惕。\n男人们不会认为有乳房的女人是永久没有生育能力并因此放弃她们。他们觉得，最终，一个女人的乳房会变平，她们也会再一次变得有生育能力。于是，男人总是费力气去和自己区域里的最好的女人发展关系，甚至是在这些女人没有生育能力的时期。一个即使是没有性爱的确立的恋情，对于希望和男人有一段风流韵事的女人来说也是有利的。这是另一个人类的特点。虽然雄性黑猩猩可以无视无生育能力的雌性，但是男人这样做会显得更加愚蠢。\n与那些女人同时代的人和如今的女人很可能有不同的本能。明显的月经期使一种生物不能进化成在没有生育能力的时候也保持强烈的性欲。女人只有当处于生理周期中有生育能力的时期时才会进化得较为性饥渴。即使在今天，这仍然是她们性欲最强的时期。男人看到女人长着乳房就会自然地觉得她不会给自己戴绿帽子，因为她不会性饥渴。因此，不但要感谢她们放松警惕的男性伴侣，同时还要感谢她们的那些配偶正相对来说经历着缺少性爱时期的女性对手，第一批拥有秘密的经期和永久乳房的女人可以更加容易地和不同的男人做爱。\n有可能当时男人拥有的一些本能促使他们为拥有乳房的女人提供食物，这种本能如今可能已经遗失了。有乳房的女人要用母乳喂养孩子，所以需要一些额外的食物。男人看到自己有乳房的伴侣会继续为她提供食物，继续为她外出打猎，她却自己在别处交欢，而且他有可能在她抚养作为果实的私生子的过程中继续赡养她。\n由通奸所产下的孩子往往比平均水平的孩子更加优秀，因为那些女人们用自己的力量获得了最好的精子，而且在一开始她们成功证明了自己很可能是高质量的女人。因此这些女人的基因有很大几率得到了复制。\n几乎可以肯定，这些拥有永久乳房的女人因为乳房的存在往往不会被认为是迷人的。不过，同样可以肯定的是，她们确实克服了这个劣势。现在的女人都有乳房就是证明。如果没有任何男人愿意和有乳房的女人交配，那么如今唯一拥有乳房的女人就只能分泌乳汁了。\n进化的压力迫使男人摆脱了认为乳房令人反感的这个过时的本能。这种进化的压力真的很伟大。\n重大的变革\n突然间，男人们的世界被改变了。女人身上的乳房让他们失去性欲的这种本能曾经是一件好事，但是过了不久这种本能却成了一种劣势。如果在一个所有女人都有永久乳房的部落里，一个男人是仅有的一个不因为女人的乳房而完全失去性欲的人，那么他就会成为整个下一代人的父亲，而男性的本能就会迅速被改变。我不是说如此极端的或者和我的假设完全一模一样的事情突然间就发生了，但是我觉得男性本能的改变从正常的进化标准来看是相当迅速的。\n本能是由基因编码的。基因由DNA串组成，而DNA又使用一种语言，Gattaca（一部科幻电影，影片中社会通过对每个人DNA的分析来决定你生命中的归属，译者注）。通过英语来说，一个男人的本能可能颇为简单，就像如下这样：\n“看女人的胸前是否有一对圆的、摆动的东西。如果她们有这样的东西，就会觉得性欲消退。那对东西越大、越圆、越是摆动，这种感觉就越是强烈。”\n可能有人会争论说，考虑到女人身体上的变化，男人可能会完全删除这种大脑中的程序。然而，一个相对小很多的变异可以把这种程序改变为：\n“看女人的胸前是否有一对圆的、摆动的东西。如果她们有这样的东西，就会觉得性欲被激发。那对东西越大、越圆、越是摆动，这种感觉就越是强烈。”\n只有一个词被改变了。这种本能差不多和之前是相同的，它同样定义了乳房，而且基于对这样被定义了的东西的评估加入了一种情绪，一种和性欲有关的情绪。我的猜测是将男人的本能从一个极端变到另一个极端要比将其从一个极端变为中立容易很多。而且，如果进化确实进行得很快，那么男人们可能会有竞争发展出更合适的本能的竞赛。最简单的一种解决方案可能会赢得这个竞赛，不是因为这是最好的手段，而是因为这是最快捷的手段。在一个大多数男人认为乳房使人性欲消退，同时很多女人都拥有永久乳房的世界里，一个觉得乳房正向地刺激性欲的男人相对于那些对于乳房感觉不太强烈的男人来说，可能会遗传下来更多的基因。男人对于乳房的色欲是进化过程中的一个伤疤——它并不是最理想有效的，但是这条道路最后引领我们走到了现在。\n在进化使男人认为乳房性感之前，女人先进化出了永久的乳房。这两种变化可能在时间上有重叠，但是这个过程是由乳房的进化开始的，而不是男人对乳房的性欲。如果乳房的进化先发生，那么对于乳房的厌恶对于男人来说就是灾难性的。从最不现实的极端情况来看，在一个所有女人都有乳房的世界里，一个讨厌乳房的男人很可能根本不会育种。为了赶紧避免这种灾难，大自然会做得过分一点，给男人一种和乳房的价值不成比例的对乳房的本能好感。男人们可能会发现乳房如此性感，因为他们曾经觉得它是如此明显地使性欲消退。那种厌恶相当强烈，就和如今男人对于和老女人性交的厌恶一样强烈。男人们完全没有理由去和一个没有生育能力的人性交，所以本能会竭力阻止这种情况的发生。\n我怀疑这是正确的一个理由是，我观察到男人们几乎认为所有的乳房都是性感的。基本上，男人们根据吸引力做出对于身边的女人的定性的评判。一个女人拥有皮肤并不让她显得性感。所有女人都有皮肤。光滑、健康、没有斑点、富有活力的有弹性的皮肤是有吸引力的，而粗糙、有斑点、没有弹性的皮肤当然是令人反感的。男人是被女人皮肤的品质所吸引，而不是被皮肤本身所吸引。男人们确实给与乳房一些定性的评价，但是几乎所有年轻女人的乳房都会增强，而不是降低自己的魅力。一种相反的认为所有乳房都降低性欲的本能可以对此做出解释。\n另一个让我们相信这种假设的理由是，如果男人好色的本性刚好和女人的生育能力完美地相配，那么男人会认为丰满的乳房最没有吸引力，因为女人的乳房在她用母乳喂养小宝宝的时候是最大的，而在此时她是没有生育能力的。男人会认为娇小的乳房更加性感，因为女人的乳房随着她们持续哺乳而变小。而随着哺乳的避孕作用的消退，女人们则渐渐变得更加有生育能力。这很显然和我们在现实世界中所看到的并不一致。\n而还有一个让我们认为男人对于乳房的本能从厌恶变为被吸引的理由在于，男人们认为超大的乳房是有吸引力的。现在整形手术可以创造出在更新世难以想像的丰满乳房。有些女人通过丰胸使自己的乳房大到了可笑的地步，她们然后去跳脱衣舞或是做平面模特，并因此赚到了很多钱。似乎这样看来男人们头脑里对色欲编码的本能非常简单。这让我想起了一个我看过的实验。实验中在一种海鸥的幼鸟面前呈现了很多不同的东西，根据记录它们经常去啄那些东西。成年的这种海鸥在它们的喙的下侧有一个略带红色的斑点。当幼鸟去啄那块斑点的时候，成鸟就将咽下去的食物喂给幼鸟。而当成鸟的斑点被颜料涂掉后，幼鸟就几乎不去啄成鸟的喙了。大多数幼鸟都去啄一个用有光泽的鲜红色指甲油涂过的乒乓球。看上去幼鸟似乎并没有留意到一个活生生的、会动的、熟悉的、海鸥形状的物体在他们身边，它们没有留意过去是谁喂养它们的，也没有留意从海上捕食回来的父母身上的气味。它们的本能只是“去啄圆的、红色的东西的冲动，越圆越红越好。”我觉得男人对于乳房有一种类似的本能。确实，男人相对假的乳房更喜欢真的，但是不能否认的是他们着迷于巨大的乳房。\n最后的障碍\n如果最早拥有永久乳房的女人是女人特质的粗劣的样品的话，那么选择和她们交配的男人可能如今只有很少的后代。只有当那些拥有处于原始形态的“累赘物”的女人至少是合格的生育机器的时候，进化才会偏向于那些认为这种装饰有吸引力的男人。我需要证明虽然这是一种奇怪的变异，但是那些最先拥有永久存在的乳房的女人是能够胜任成为我们祖先的这项工作。\n如果你跟随我最后部分的论据，那么你就会同意这种理论是围绕着这最后一个障碍的。是的，使男人被最有生育能力和高质量的女人之外的其他东西吸引的色欲是竞争不过更加合适的色欲的。不过有一种色欲是有竞争力的，它使男人被那些不比别的女人好也不比别的女人差的女人吸引，并且给别的竞争对手戴绿帽子。一旦这些女人生下了一个孩子并存活了下来，那么她们至少是合格的，而且她们会得到最好的精子，于是生下的孩子至少会和他们的母亲一样优秀。\n进化是一个有很大随机性的过程。有可能最早拥有永久乳房的女人正好就是女性特质的良好的样品，即使她们不能用双手来跑步。\n未产妇加入其中\n在过去某个时期男人的色欲被改变成认为乳房是由吸引力的。一旦男人开始发展这种色欲，那么对于未产妇来说，看上去和比她们更成熟的竞争对手相似成为了她们的优势。我猜测先是女人进化出不会在母乳喂养结束后消失的乳房，然后这导致了男人进化产生对于乳房的色欲，接着，未产妇对这种新出现的色欲做出回应，进化出了乳房。\n如果男人认为乳房性感，那么一个年轻的女人拥有乳房就会好于没有乳房。这样，她就更有可能赢得一个更好的伴侣，然后更早地开始生育，并生下和养育更多的孩子。她拥有的乳房没有任何分泌乳汁的作用。它除了让男人们觉得这个女人性感之外没有任何作用。在过去，年轻女人不会因为没有乳房而显得没有吸引力，但是一旦一部分女人拥有了永久乳房，那么所有的女人都必须承担这个负担。\n如今的现状\n现在男人的确认为乳房是有吸引力的，而且乳房如今是女人永久存在的特征。一旦人类进化到达这一步，乳房和对于乳房的色欲就开始被性的选择影响，作为费舍尔特征进化。一个被性的选择选中的特征就是它往往有很大的差别。人类的乳房大小有很大的变化范围。似乎乳房现在已经成了一种符合性的选择的特征。\n孔雀的尾巴能够得到进化很大程度上是因为这是一种优良基因的诚实的信号。如果它是任何一种关于不良基因的信号，那么它就不会得到进化了。为了生存和长出美丽的尾巴，孔雀必须健康、强壮、没有寄生虫，而且营养充足。所以当雌孔雀挑选雄孔雀的时候，如果一个雄孔雀有着巨大的、炫丽的尾巴，它就是一只好的孔雀。如果雌孔雀喜欢单调的、不对称的、损坏了的尾巴，那么她们很可能就会选择营养不良、多次险些逃脱、体内有寄生虫的雄孔雀。于是，她们就无法使自己的基因和最优良的基因结合。如果人类的乳房就和孔雀的尾巴一样，那么我们就会预计某些乳房会比其他的乳房更有吸引力，而且这些乳房是最难长出的乳房。\nJ.T. Manning (1997) 指出，女人体内雌性激素的高含量和较差的免疫系统是有联系的。这就说明只有十分健康的女人才有本钱拥有高含量的雌性激素。通过给一种障碍做宣传，丰满的乳房就像是孔雀的尾巴。正如孔雀尽管有尾巴还可以生存和茁壮成长一样，尽管免疫系统被抑制，但是女人仍然可以生存。\n一个让拥有丰满乳房的女人性感的原因在于，她告诉人们自己容易怀孕。这可能是由于丰满的乳房是雌性激素充足的标志，而雌性激素的一种作用是使卵子的细胞膜——透明带更有可渗透性。它还能够影响子宫颈内粘液的pH值。因此，精子能够更容易地对一个乳房丰满的女人的卵子受精。请注意这部分推理没有解释女人为什么会长出乳房，但是它解释了为什么男人认为丰满的乳房比娇小的乳房更加性感。上面这两段都将激素的影响用来作为论据的一部分，所以它被我之前关于激素的理论削弱了。然而，现在我谈到的是现在乳房的差异，而不是乳房为何会得到进化，在这样的语境下，这条论据就变得有力多了。\n我先前提到过丰满的乳房会更快的下垂这一事实对于乳房的大小是一种限制。可能有人会争论，丰满而有活力的乳房因此是年轻的证据。对于一个有短期交配策略的女人来说这可能是有利的，虽然她在将来会为此付出代价。我将其视为一个很不重要的因素，如果在乳房的进化过程中，这是一个主要的影响因素，那么我会预测进化使女人拥有一种被改进了的乳房，它在女人年轻的时候丰满，而随后逐渐变小，于是这样就可以将下垂的缺陷尽量减小。而且，还有很多其他关于年轻的信号，例如年轻的皮肤。我们还可以相应地指出，色情行业模特的职业生涯会在她们丰胸之后变得更长。有人可能会说这种丰满的人工乳房可以成功地让女人看上去更年轻。不过也有可能被丰满的乳房激起的性欲仅仅弥补了男人看出她们已经不再年轻的这个事实。我曾经考虑用一张照片来阐明这点，但是后来决定不这么做。\n对称是健康的一种良好的体现。很多研究有力地说明人类和其他生物将对称的身体视为良好的身体。人类的某些部分尤其难以长得对称。脸就是其中之一，而人们鉴别一个人是否美丽很大程度上要看脸部。小的乳房容易长得对称，但随着乳房变大，长得对称就变得越来越难，而且任何的不对称都更明显地被体现出来。长出丰满而不对称的乳房就是将自己的畸形告知别人，而这对于女人生育的可能性是不利的。Manning和其他人（1997根据1996的版本修订）指出乳房丰满的女人其乳房惊人的对称，远比通常意义上典型的身体部位对称得多。这说明只有有能力长出对称而丰满的乳房的女人才会长出丰满的乳房，这正好符合它是体现女人健康的一种宣传这一说法。对称的问题可能可以从Manning（1997）的发现中得到反映。他发现已婚女性的乳房更加对称，且略小于未婚女性的乳房。再一次提醒大家，这只是解释了丰满乳房的性感，而不能解释乳房的存在。\nMiller（2000）提出单一的给人印象深刻的性装饰物就足够了。一只孔雀如果长了一条无比美丽的尾巴，那么它必需是非常健康的。它没有必要长出两条这样的尾巴来证明自己。一条尾巴是一个诚实的信号，而一个诚实的信号就是证据。Miller声称，拥有幽默、音乐、演说以及其他才能的人脑是一种性的装饰物。这就意味着一个很聪明的女人用自己的智慧就已经向世界证明了她拥有良好的基因和健康。她并不需要用丰满的乳房来赢得属于自己的男人。一个智力较低的女人就需要做些事情来证明自己是值得男人的求爱的。如果她没有足够的智慧让一个男人待在自己身边很多年，经常和自己做爱，并且和自己一起抚养孩子，那么她至少可以证明自己容易怀孕，以此做为弥补。男人们会认为这种女人是尤其有吸引力的，因为她们似乎向男人提供了彩票的头奖：一个不需要为之承担抚养义务的孩子。\n女人不同的行为和她们不同类型的魅力是相吻合的。这点得到了很多观察结果的支持。比方说，身材迷人，而脸蛋不太美丽的女人更有可能沉溺于一夜情，而且早三年失去贞节。她们也更看重自己伴侣身体上的吸引力，而在其他方面倾向于表现得更有男子气概（Mikach和Bailey, 1999）。这有可能一部分是由于一个女人出生前在子宫里，而出生后会接触到雄性激素。一些女人两种性激素含量都很高，而雄性激素让人变得好色。乳房丰满的女人第一次月经来的更早，而更少结婚（Manning, J.T, et al., 1997）。这表明女人的本能被微调成对她们的生殖最为有利的情况，同时也说明乳房是性感的。一个很可能因为美貌和智慧获得长远的成功的女人，可能会长出较小的乳房，并且在失去贞节之前等待更长的时间。对于女人来说，另一种选择则是尽早变得尽可能的性感，并且尽早开始生育。这并不意味着她们对于和自己性交的男人不挑剔，但是这意味着她们比较不关心那些男人会和自己相伴多久。她们可以因为性感，而不是聪明，来得到最好的精子，但是她们只能在自己年轻的时候用这种方法得到最好的精子，所以她们“去争取这些东西”。根据推测，高含量的性激素，包括雌性激素和雄性激素，和较低的智力水平之间是有联系的，而这正好符合我们上面的说法。这同时也和另一个常见的现象相吻合：女人们很看不起那些胸部丰满而水性杨花的情敌。\n拥有乳房的另一个好处是它扩大了胸部的大小，同时减小了腰部的相对大小。对于一个观察者来说，如果女人拥有乳房，那么她的腰部看上去就更细。男人会觉得看上去很有生育能力的女人是性感的，而孕妇是没有生育能力的，所以看上去腰部没有凸出的体型让女人更加性感（参见我对于肥胖的大腿的理论）。\n所以，女人既然需要一直“带着”乳房，似乎她们中的很多人已经接受了长出一对优良的乳房带来的麻烦。\n同时，男人被一种并不理想的本能所束缚。他们的欲望被一对无用的充斥着脂肪的袋子所点燃。然而，男人却承担不起失去这种本能的损失。不分泌乳汁的乳房就好像核弹一样——我们需要它只是因为别人也有这种东西。\n注释说明\n1.我相信用其他动物的乳汁（最好不要是牛奶）是有可能可以将孩子养大的，因为它们含有丰富的钠。很显然狗奶是可以的。婴儿一开始不能消化固体，因为他们的肠子还没有发育完全，而且他们不能很好地排出固体或者生成所有必需的酶。用血液来喂养婴儿是行不通的。血液中没有足够的能量。它只含有一点点葡萄糖和非常少的脂肪。 ↩2.吮吸导致母亲体内催产素和催乳素的释放。催产素产生贮存的乳汁；催乳素催发出更多的乳汁。吮吸的越多，产生的乳汁也越多。 ↩3.要出现第一次的月经，一个女孩需要积累相当于自己体重17%的脂肪。到脂肪重量达到体重的27%时，女人的生育能力仍然相对较低。在性成熟以后，如果这个指标降至22%，则会导致月经停止（Gallup 1982） ↩4.Tovée, Cornelissen et al. (1999, 2001) 指出人们在评判同胞的身体质量指数（Body Mass Index）的时候是非常准确的 ↩5.库兴氏综合症是由过多的皮质醇引起的。皮质醇是（在其他东西中）重要的激素，它含量过高最典型的原因就是药物或者肿瘤。皮质醇虽然和合成代谢类固醇（anabolic steroid，一种加速肌肉生长的药物，译者注）有关，但是它并不是导致后青春期脂肪贮存的主要激素。雌性激素才是其真正原因 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"乌合之众","url":"/%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%88%E4%B9%8B%E4%BC%97.html","content":"\n此书之所以这么标新立异，与作者信奉的研究哲学分不开：不受外界观点教条影响是发现真理的唯一途径。\n在这样的指导思想下，他不怕自己观点与当代所有派别的观点相左，这样的勇猛自然离真相更进一步。因为一旦属于某一学派，观点就必然会受到其偏见和先入为主的观点影响。\n无意识\n理性不过是人类最近才具有的属性，尚未完美到能够揭示无意识的规律。无意识对我们的行为有着十分重要的影响，就像一种不为人知的力量在起作用。\n历史告诉我们，当文明赖以生存的道德因素失去威力时，它也就被无意识的野蛮群体解散了。创造和领导着文明的，从来都是少数的高级知识分子而不是群体。群体只有强大的破坏力，他们的规则永远是渴望回到野蛮阶段。\n组成种族的个体在无意识因素方面是十分相似的，差异主要来自性格中有意识的一面：比如受教育的结果。在人们的情感领域，如宗教政治道德和爱恨，最卓越的人才也不见得比平民百姓高明多少。在集体的气氛下，个人的智能差异被削弱了，他们的个性也被削弱了。形成群体后，个体的才智就变得平庸了，这就是为什么群体完成不了高智商的工作。处于群体中时，约束个人的责任感便荡然无存，就可以为所欲为了。\n群体性\n群体常常夸大自己的情感，所以要想打动他们，只能用最极端的感情才可以。\n专横和偏狭是一切类型群体的共性。但在不同群体中强度却不一样。有些民族只关心自己所属的宗派是否还具有独立性，甚至发展到必须通过暴力手段让与他们意见相左的人改变信念，才算独立，这种单一而顽固的对只有的理解，与英美人具有的强烈的个人独立精神是不一样的。\n高深的观念必须通过改造才能被群众接受，民众的想象力是政治家的权利基础。无论给群众提供的是哪种观念，只有当它们具有绝对的，毫不妥协的和简单明了的形式时，才能产生绝佳的影响力。它们都会披上形象化的外衣，也只有以这种形式出现，才能被群体接受。该如何影响群体的想象力，绝对不可以采用论证的方式。因为影响民众想象力的并不是事实本身，而是它扩散和传播的方式。\n民族性\n群体信念和观点的基础，受蓄积因素影响最大。这些因素包括种族，传统， 时间，制度和教育。各民族无法选择自己认为最好的制度，相同的制度名下掩盖着极不相同的东西，就是这些蓄积性因素。\n种族\n种族的重要性远远超过其他因素，种族所有的文明要素都仅仅是其禀赋的外在表现而已。\n\n传统代表着过去的观念，需要和感情，是种族综合作用的产物。\n民族是在历史中形成的有机体，只能通过缓慢的世代累积的过程发生变化。\n\n种族精神代表着文明状态，群体精神代表着野蛮状态。种族的差别，造成了有多少个国家就有多少种不同形式的社会主义和民主的局面。遗传的心理结构在人们感觉和思维方式上造成巨大的差别，在大型集会中把不同国家的工人代表聚集在一起，往往弄得意见纷纷，不欢而散。有些为了实现自己的利益，会寻求国家干预，有些更多求助于个人的主动性，就像喜欢集权和不把国家当回事的民族差别一样。\n各种制度和政府对一个民族的生活只能产生很小的影响，民族主要受其种族禀赋支配，也就是说，受着某些品质的遗传残留的支配，而所谓禀赋，这是这些品质的总和。种族和日常生活中我们必须遵循的条条框框，是决定我们命运的神秘原因。\n传统\n没有传统，文明是不可能的；没有对这些传统的破坏，进步也是不可能的。理想的方式是保留过去的制度，只用不易觉察的方式一点一滴的加以改革，这种理想很难实现。在一个民族被传统习俗捆绑过死而失去变革的能力，在这种情况下，暴力革命也是徒劳，因为革命的结果要么像打碎的锁链被重新拼接在一起，过去的统治原封不动重现，要么对被打碎的事物撒手不管，衰败后很快出现无政府状态。\n时间\n漫长的时间造就了自己的作品，一致的环境，不间断的种族通婚以及共同生活等因素共同施加了它们的影响。小群体逐渐融合成一个大整体，形成了一个种族，即一个有着共同特征和情感的群体，因为遗传的作用它们越来越稳固，这群人变成了一个民族。获得某种理想之后，才能形成一个理想的民族。这个理想具有什么样的性质并不十分重要。不管是罗马式的崇拜，雅典式的强盛还是真主安拉式的胜利，都足以让种族中的每个人在情感和思想上达到完全的统一。\n时间做完创建性的工作后，便开始搞破坏，文明一旦止步不前，注定会走向衰落，标志就是种族理想的衰弱。理想衰弱过程中，个人的个性和智力增长，但人群最终会变成一群缺乏团结一致的个体，回到自己的原始状态——一群乌合之众。\n制度\n政治制度形成需要上百年的时间，改变它也同样如此。在某一个时刻对一个民族有益的制度，对另一个民族也许是有害的。决定各民族命运的是它们的性格，而不是它们的政府。\n社会组织和所有生命有机体一样复杂，大自然从不以我们普遍流行的方式进行变革，而是采取一些激烈的手段，因而变革对于一个民族而言是有致命危险的，无论此变革在理论上是多么出色。\n对英美宪政滴灌式变化的吹捧\n需求和时间承担着完善宪政的责任，最明智的做法就是像英美人一样，让这两个因素发挥作用。与欧洲大陆民族一拥而上发疯般制定出来的宪法文本与英国的宪法进行了比较并指出，英国的宪法总是一点一滴慢慢地发生变化，收到直接需求的影响，而不是受思辨性的推理的影响。\n教育\n教育是我们在一定程度上影响国民心智的唯一手段。生活中取得成功的条件是判断力，经验，开拓精神和个性，这些素质都不是书本能够带来的。\n\n附上作者的观点：废除可恶的教科书和可悲的考试，代之以实质性的教育对多数人来说，可能更为有利于适用（从工厂，矿山，法庭，书房，建筑工地和医院获得大量的感观印象，和看到各种工具，材料和操作），对各种细节的累积和消化，默默的推敲，或迟或早会促使他们产生新的组合，简化，创意，改进或发明。\n\n体验能让人们对人对事有一个敏锐而准确的概念，并掌握处理它们的各种方法。在最能出成果的年级，被剥夺了所有这些宝贵的亲身接触而一直被关在学校里，是可悲的。过多的，过于沉重的知识在考试后将不断流失，被培养好时，已经快到了精力衰退的年纪，结婚生子落入生活的俗套，这就是平庸的生活。比起个人前程完全取决于他在十几二十岁的一次几小时考试的做法，注重实践能力和实物教学发展的英美教育体制，更民主对社会更有利。\n\n有关教育：国家用教科书制造出这么多有文凭的人，却只能利用其中的一小部分，从而使另一些人无事可做。培养出心怀不满和不适应自己生活状况的人。\n\n英美有用的人才，还具备自主创业的能力，如果条件允许，可能在25岁之前就能发生。相反中国成了反面典型，作者批评法国越来越像中国看齐，造成了巨额的人才浪费。缺少丰富的常识和意志力，结果是进入世界后，会接二连三的遇到痛苦的挫折。\n营造真理\n群体从来不渴望真理，面对那些不合口味的证据，他们会不加理睬，谁为他们制造幻想，他们就把谁当做主人。曾经社会主义的强大也在于它是有活力的最后幻想，鼓吹者是无视现实，敢于向人类承诺幸福的人。\n群体，不善推理，却急于行动。\n要让真理在群体心中牢固扎根，摧毁幻觉，必须依靠大范围频繁重复验证的经验，可一代人的经验对下一代人往往没多大用处，这就是被引经据典的历史事实达不到目的的原因。很可悲，经验这几乎是唯一的手段，并不能总发力生效。\n一切集体，不管其成员组成如何，全都存在智力低下的问题。政治经济学家，都受过高等教育。但他们的学问不过是我们普遍无知的一种衰减形式而已，在社会问题上，因为未知的因素众多，所有人都是同样无知的。支配投票结果的仍主要是个人的情感和党派的精神。\n领袖的行为方式\n领袖的行为方式：断言，重复，传染。群众总是愿意听从那些意志坚强的人。一个断言越是简单明了，不理睬任何推理和证据，就越有威力。就如所有时代的宗教典籍和各种法典，都是简单的断言。\n不断重复的观点会进入自我的无意识区域，我们的多数行为动机就是在这个区域中形成的。这就是为什么广告能够有吃惊威力的原因。\n同质性群体\n包括派别，身份团体和阶级。\n\n\n派别包括在教育，职业和社会阶层等方面可能十分不同的个体，由于共同的信仰联系在一起，如宗教信仰，政治信仰。\n\n\n身份团体是由相同职业的个体组成，因此有相似的教育程度和差不多的社会地位，如军人和教士。\n\n\n阶级有不同来源的个体组成，是由于某种相同的利益，某些像是的生活习惯以及几乎相同的教育背景联系起来。例如中产阶级和农民阶级。\n\n\n选民群体，工人农民很少会选出自己的同行来代表自己，原因在于这种人在他们中间没有威望。能取代声望的只有财富，才能天赋都不是成功的主要因素。当前的财富崇拜也是一种声望崇拜，社会引导经济（财富）决定论，财富者声望最高。实质上声望背后绑定的是成功，成功的支撑是多维度的，一旦失去成功这一基础，声望便会在很短的时间内消失。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"九型人格","url":"/%E4%B9%9D%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC.html","content":"\n没有人为的持续努力，所有的心灵奇迹都不会发生。认识自己本就是一件需要勇气和毅力的工作。\n不仅要承担面对自己性格黑暗面时的难堪，同时还要想办法放下既有的性格惯性，发展出新的态度与行为模式。通过学习，你可以更清楚自己的内在运作和外显特质。\n\n焦虑型人格想掌控，内耗型人格想成功，强迫型人格想完美，社恐型人格想认同，付出型人格怕指责，虽然这些款式跟九型不完全对应，但动机挖掘有异曲同工之处。\n九型介绍\n1. 理想崇高者（完美型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能犯错。\n\n行为：一切遵规守矩，认真负责，习惯关注在不完美的地方，很难包容自己或别人的缺点，喜批评指责。\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持去改正他认定的错误（爱批评）\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为经常犯错的无知孩子。担心自己不够完美，没人爱。沟通的重点是如何完美无缺。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力管好自己，就不会有人批评我\n\n\n原罪 ：\n\n愤怒: 第一型格的人习惯压抑愤怒，导致自我挫折与对他人潜藏愤恨不平的情绪\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n眼神：像鹰一样锐利，坚定;\n肢体：站坐行都保持规范不随意;\n表情：常不满\n\n\n\n2. 古道热肠者（助人型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能自私。\n\n行为：处处表现对别人的关心，特别是对弱者的同情关心，爱心\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持先去帮助他认为需要帮助的人（有目的取悦别人却易忽略自己）；担心因为没关心别人，所以别人也不爱自己。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为自私的坏孩子。沟通重点是爱心，感恩，向其求助，示弱就容易得到他的支持。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力照顾别人，大家就会喜欢我，\n\n\n原罪：\n\n骄傲：看不见自身的问题，认为别人才是需要帮助的弱者。其实是内心的骄傲感在作祟。长期忽视自己的需要，将导致自我欺骗与因得不到想要的回报而心生怨气\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n眼神：亲和的；\n肢体表情：柔、顺、亲\n\n\n\n3. 成功追求者（事业型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能丢脸。\n\n行为：以目标为导向，重视自我形象，喜欢自我表现\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持赢得大家的肯定。最担心自己不成功所以没人爱\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为让父母丢脸的没用孩子。沟通的重点是目标和蓝图，喜欢自我表现，并要多注意对其称赞。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力表现，就可以证明自己的价值\n\n\n原罪：\n\n欺骗：将自我意识认定是真我，并想尽办法满足自我意识的需要。长期关闭对真我的感受，将导致自我麻木与否定更深入的感情联结。\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n语言：快人快语，直接；\n身体语言：大多热情夸张，随环境需要变；\n眼神：明亮，活跃，灵动\n\n\n\n4. 个人风格者（自我型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能一样。\n\n行为：我行我素，审美特别有天赋\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持要有自己的风格。最担心心灵空虚，自爱就是最爱。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕害怕成为没有人注意到的寂寞孩子\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力表达自己，大家就会知道我是谁。沟通的重点是和谐与美丽的事物，夸赞她的独特之处。\n\n\n原罪：\n\n嫉妒：注意力集中在自己与他人的差异上，产生自卑又自傲的复杂情结。长期渴望他人所有，将导致自我怜悯与错过值得珍惜的事物\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n语言：一切无所谓之态，怀旧与感叹；\n肢体眼神：一举一动处处刻意表现出高贵气质，眼神随时寻找美丽特别的事物\n\n\n\n5. 博学多闻者（理智型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能没用。\n\n行为：行为理性，不带感情\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持要比别人懂得更多\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为什么都不懂的笨孩子。沟通的重点是你要显得知识渊博或指出哪些对他提高有所帮助就能得到他的支持\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力充实自己，就不怕需要依靠别人\n\n\n原罪：\n\n贪心：一方面自觉缺乏，一方面又担心他人占用自己的资源，第五型人学会不依靠别人，也不想被他人依靠。长期专注在个人世界，将导致自我封闭与外在环境格格不入\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n表情木讷，冷静，眼神深邃无光彩；\n语言：简洁，无肢体动作，无表情\n\n\n\n6. 谨慎忠诚者（疑惑型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能无备。\n\n行为：处处表现谨慎，严密\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持要确定一切安全无虞。担心做错事情，所以很谨慎，思维很细密\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为没有人可依靠的孤单孩子。沟通一定要谨慎再谨慎，显得自己很细心很认真就能得到他们的认同\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力寻找支援，就不怕遇到困难\n\n\n原罪：恐惧：担心不可知的未来，让第六型人永远活在焦虑当中。长期忽视自己的力量，将导致自我怀疑与对他人产生负面的投射（例如自己内心感到不安，便先认定他人内心正在不安）\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n语言：声音小时略带颤抖，或刻意大声掩饰；\n眼神：拘束，恍惚，或刻意表现强硬姿势，眼神逃避或可以直视（6号有恐惧型和反恐型两种）\n\n\n\n7. 勇于创新者（活跃型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能受限。\n\n行为：喜欢有趣，讨厌无趣，自娱自乐\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持先去做自己有兴趣的事情。担心没快乐没趣味，所以要及时行乐。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为一无所有的穷孩子\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力满足自己，就可以过着快乐的生活。沟通的重点就是你要告诉他真的很好玩他就会支持\n\n\n原罪：\n\n贪吃：不愿面对痛苦，第七型不得不用有趣的活动与事物来填补内心情感的空洞。长期以追逐快乐与刺激逃避问题，将导致自我沉沦与永远得不到满足的困境\n\n\n\n肢体眼神\n\n语言：活跃，跳跃（注意3号也活泼，但7号和3号最大的不同是3号做什么事都有明确目的，而7号做什么都喜欢追求好玩）；\n肢体眼神：好动，不稳重，眼神关注好玩儿的事物。\n\n\n\n8. 天生领导者（领袖型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能被欺。\n\n行为：表达权威，坚定有力，赶紧利落，易怒\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持一切要在他的掌控之中。最担心不掌握全局就得不到爱，所以强势控制。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为爱哭的软弱孩子。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力武装自己，别人就不敢欺负我。能为8号出谋划策，或为其所用是8号沟通的重点。\n\n\n原罪：\n\n贪欲：要求强度，控制力，不断自我扩张，是第八型人受欲望驱动的结果。（长期放任欲念，将导致自我膨胀与过度损耗所有资源）\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：肢体动作大，喜欢指点，表情不怒自威，眼神威严\n\n\n9. 向往和平者（和平型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能孤立。\n\n行为：随意，缓和，不出众，不能拒绝别人\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持不要有冲突。最担心不和谐，破坏自然或气氛，不自在也没人爱，所以喜欢和平。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为讨人厌的孤独孩子\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力配合别人，就可以和大家相处愉快。似乎是最没主见的人，很容易被影响，但喜欢和谐的沟通说服方式。\n\n\n原罪：\n\n怠惰：对生命报持旁观的态度，让第九型人只想活在自己的安乐窝中。长期抗拒外在的影响，将导致自我退缩与对所有事物失去感觉\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：肢体随意不讲究，迟缓，眼神平和\n\n\n个别易混淆的差别说明\n2型助人vs 9型和平\n2号和9号容易混淆，2号的动机是爱他人，所以眼神充满感情的亲和力，9号的动机是爱自然和谐，眼神若有若无的，常融入自然环境中好像随时在发呆。\n2和9的人缘都很好，没攻击性，比较讨人喜欢。但两者的区别在于：\n\n2号更关注个体，会挑选帮助他所喜欢的，或者有权力的，或者和他相似的人。\n9号更关注整个群体，9号更愿意帮助群体的每一个人。\n\n比如在一个一大群人的聚会中：\n\n2号锁定自己目标后，会迅速行动，上前打招呼，不会浪费时间在自己不关注的人物上。\n9号的行动力就会显得慢很多，也随和很多，往往显得漫无目标，碰到谁都可以聊上一会。\n\n5型理智vs 6型疑惑\n5，6号做事都喜欢思考，所以很容易混淆。\n\n\n5号思考是完全理性的，独立的。所以5号在团队中思考了也很少讲出来。\n\n\n6号思考绝大多数是为了得到团队或他人认可，经过严密思考后会发表个人看法。\n\n\n三大性格类组\n在九型人格中，可以三三分组，维度也可以切成三份\n\n三大基本性格类组\n三大情绪管理\n三大欲望满足机制\n\n九种性格类型在性格分类上虽然各自独立，但在心里结构上确实各有相连关系，同一组性格类型者遭遇共同的心理困恼，但因为性格类型不同而产生不一样的外显行为。\n三种维度分组，可以指出每种性格类型的失衡点，同时还揭露每种性格类型的运作机制。\n心理三大结构\n三大基本性格类组是根据人类的心理三大结构做分类的：本能，情感与思考。分别对应体内三大能量中心。丹田，胸腔和头部，九大原罪正好与此三大能量中心有关。\n本能组【8.9.1】\n\n经常体验愤怒\n\n\n8 不计后果的外化表达\n9 则愤怒麻醉，否认消极应对\n1 则愤怒内化，怒而不宣，经常批评别人\n\n\n性格影响-反抗现在\n\n自我防御与高度戒备，麻木与消极抵制，划清界限与恼怒\n\n真我特质-促成活在当下\n\n放松与发挥内在力量，去感受与参与，接受现状与宽容\n情感组【2.3.4】\n\n经常体验到的情绪是悲伤，都希望获得别人的认同。\n\n\n2 通过帮助别人，通过别人的感受找到自己存在的价值\n3 通过获得成就地位获得他人尊重\n4 通过自己的独特性\n\n\n性格影响-放不下过去\n\n情绪化与想要改变别人，不去感受与否认，戏剧化与自我形象\n\n真我特质-促成活在当下\n\n悲悯与放下，同理心与自我肯定，平静与真相\n思考组【5.6.7】\n\n\n经常体验到焦虑/恐惧\n潜藏的情绪是对未来的恐惧。幼儿在建立自我意识过程中会经历所谓的“分离阶段”，也就是学习如何走出母亲的照顾，开始独立。理想的成长经验中，父亲是帮助幼儿学习分辨外界危险的最佳人选，而思考组的三种人就是在这个阶段出现困恼，他们找不到父亲角色所给予的安全感，因此，他们意识到，必须完全靠自己，焦虑于是产生。在强烈的恐惧中，第5型人退回内心躲藏起来，6号有时屈服有时反抗，7型会假装没事。\n书上解释第5型的父母或一方过度强势，导致自己深怕被父母掌控。第6型曾被非常信任的人欺骗或捉弄，像其他两组的主性格（3.6.9）一样，都是既内向又外向的，所以他奋起反抗又怕受责罚，造成矛盾感很强第7型自认太早失去母亲的关爱，决定自己当母亲，好好为自己争取应得的一切，向外追逐，把一切可能都纳入自己的选择当中，不想错过任何机会，才能感到安全，需要越来越多的“玩具”带来安慰\n\n\n\n5通过获得更多知识信息获得安全感\n6通过把安全焦虑投射到环境中，希望与同道中人结盟获得安全感\n7通过不断从外界获得能量驱逐内心的焦虑不安全感\n\n\n性格影响-为未来烦恼\n\n想得透彻与焦虑，不确定与怀疑，逃避与过度参与\n\n真我特质-促成活在当下\n\n内在的大智慧与相互支持，相信自己和清明的心思，承受与节制\n情绪管理机制\n理性主义【1.3.5】\n碰到问题，第一反应是克制内心情绪，要求自己保持冷静与理性态度解决问题。也希望对方理性讨论与协调\n乐观派【2.7.9】\n第一反应是要求自己往好的方面想，不愿承认自己的问题。\n情绪分子【4.6.8】\n发泄是他们的第一反应。这组人在信任别人这事儿上出现了问题\n欲望满足机制\n欲望满足机制，揭示潜意识里想以何种方式去追求想要的东西，同时也揭露我们的社交风格，看每种人如何达到想要的目的，及在团队中如何自处定位自己。\n强制组【3.7.8】\n属于强势组，以自我为中心，侵略性较强，不能被满足时，不会退缩放弃，而是更积极争取\n责任组【1.2.6】\n受传统约束，强调义务责任。不被满足时，会要求自己以合乎法理的方式取得想要的，普通看不清自我的价值，不是否认就是要依靠别人的肯定。\n离群组【4.5.9】\n比较容易逃离现实，倾向以想象来取代行动的人。不能被满足时，会先躲回内心世界，借由想象力安抚内心失落感\n九型变数\n九型有左右翼与三变数，还有放松或压力时的成长走向与凋零走向。\n三变数是身体舒适度、社会关系网、人际亲密感，也就是你日常更关心的维度（影响价值观，因为它们是人类的三大基本需求），找出影响你最深的变数，了解你成长过程中被过度开发或发展不足的需求。\n找出你的主变数，Easy。走进公司晚宴，你最关心的是下面的哪个问题你就明了了。\n\n\n场地布置如何，有什么菜品，哪个位置坐起来更舒适方便？\n\n\n有哪些长官来现场？谁才是有实权的人？谁跟他们说话，谁对自己升迁最有利？\n\n\n那一桌气氛最热闹？谁最受大家欢迎？想去和有吸引力的人坐一桌\n\n\n在九型人格理论中，宣称每个人都只属于一种人格，这或许有他的道理。认定你的主人格后，从其它相似的人格中了解修正建议，也有利于改善自己的其它毛病（每个人都或多或少拥有1-9之间的特质，但肯定有一个主的）。\n个人分析\n纵观整本书后，看出自己是属于第五型人，但有很强的第六型的问题。别以为自己像第九型人，这是因为在独生的环境中害怕孤独，害怕没有人跟自己玩，加之父母相对平和所生出来特性，并不是主体特性，我并不怕冲突，甚至在倔强的时候，是完全无视冲突的，这并不是我最担忧的方面。另外有时的完美主义，并不是时时刻刻发生的，且很小很小的时候明显，过了小学4年级好像就没了，所以就更不是了，虽然我也喜欢批评别人。\n第五型人\n作为一个第5型人【思考组】，而且我还是一个性格健康度普通的第5型。健康的第5型认为自己是一个聪明且洞悉力强的人，当开始不断追求新知，深怕自己表现不如他人时，健康度已经下滑至普通。当我如果害怕没有足够资源，沉溺在自我想象世界，为维护自己的思想而无理攻击他人时，就是一个重度问题患者了。\n\n\n世界观：这世界充满侵略性的事物，我要躲起来好好思考并做足准备\n\n\n自我概念：我是一个聪明，知觉敏锐的人\n\n\n核心恐惧：我不想被别人威胁或控制\n\n\n核心欲望：我一定要了解周围的一切\n\n\n性格形成点：越来越坚持知识就是力量\n\n\n性格扭曲点：当开始不断追求新知，深怕自己表现不如他人\n\n\n性格自救点：保持清明的思考健康的洞察力，以免掉入脱离现实或扭曲解释的性格困境\n\n\n性格成长点：转向健康的第八型，开始相信自己所知的已经比别人多，并且能自信地领导别人\n\n\n性格凋零点：转向不健康的第七型，开始不再思考地冲动行事，甚至性情变得极度不稳定\n\n\n第5型人可以忍受长时间的独处，太强调思考的重要性，倾向以思考取代行动，经常是跳跃式的思考模式，一点引发另一点，花很多时间却不容易有结论。5w6（具有第六翼型的第五型人）是解决问题的高手，健康时，擅长从不想干事物中找到共同性，并加以延伸使用，但又依附权威。关注身体舒适度的家伙，比另外两种更注重个人隐私，更离群索居，不容易表达内心真正的情感，潜意识里是拒绝与别人心灵相通的。\n健康转换\n当第5型人长期处于放松状态，不再坚持自己的理论，而是向现实大环境认同，他将呈现出健康的第8型人的特质：坚定，自信，实际动手做。脚踏实地而不是空谈理论，用心去感受而不是切断自己的情感。\n多了第8型的自信，第5型开始收割长期的自我耕耘，相信自己有足够的能力去赢得胜利。只是，把意识从心智调整到身体与感受面，并且解放长久被压抑的情感，这是第5型人一直以来最抗拒的状况。好在第5型人性格健康时，他会勇于承担，以专业素养和敏锐洞察力带领团队寻找新方案，会是精力充沛又思虑缜密的智慧型领导人物，不再是虚无缥缈的理论家，也不再是与世隔绝的怪人，而是完美理论的实践者。\n不止用脑，更要用心，是第5型人重获新生的关键。\n第六型人\n其实自己还有比较严重的第6型人的问题。\n因为担心被抛弃和鼓励，在人际关系中，潜意识里常寻找可以依赖的情感来源为目标，会显得特别友善与愿意支持别人。性格中的自我怀疑，常忽略自己的优点和能力。常依据别人的反应来决定自己的回应方式。不友善激起防御心，微笑足以把你当做自己人。\n容易受别人影响，情绪随着摆荡。性格不太自信而害怕做出改变。想要摆脱母亲却得不到父亲的指引与保护，慌乱与焦虑特质因此而生。\n对于相同问题反复思量的第六型人， 往往做好决策后，又开始挑剔这个决策的毛病。当时间一分一秒逼近，着急的他为了要摆脱不知该如何是好的焦虑感。常常会冲动做出完全相反的决定。\n控制住你容易往坏处想的毛病，你比别人更容易伤害你自己\n降低防御心，要有勇气表达自己，但是，不需要与人对立。\n健康转换\n第6型可成长为性格健康的第九型，稳定宽容，笑看缘起缘灭。\n第九型人\n第九型人的性格扭曲点：为了不起冲突或减少麻烦而顺应别人的要求\n\n\n【性格成长点】：转向健康的第三型，开始想要发挥自己的潜力，变得比较有自信，而且不再需要依赖别人来规划生活\n\n\n【性格凋零点】：转向不健康的第6型，开始变得多疑而且焦虑，表面上看起来冷淡而且不在乎的他，其实像一颗不定时炸弹般充满危险性。\n\n\n像第4型人总是以浪漫伤感看世界，第9型总是以阳光角度去诠释他的生活。第9型人希望自己与外在世界合为一体，倾向放下自己去适应周围环境。当环境不如意时，不做行为反抗，却在内心里为自己的平静筑起一道保护墙，影响平静的东西都被阻挡。只选择自己想看到的事情，没有选择时，倾向美化不好的经验。遇到困难时，第九型人反应是退缩而不是面对。\n\n许多第九型人自认拥有不错的童年生活，他们对父母有肯定的认同。以和为贵，适合在组织规章明确，挑战性不高的环境工作，最大优点是沉着，乐当无名小卒，不表达自我，当绿叶衬红花。\n\n第九型人总是抹灭自我，尤其抗拒任何会让他感到内在的愤怒和不安等情绪事情。看起来很忙，但在逃避等着被解决的问题，干的都是琐事，通常不愿花心思在任何可以让目前情况变得更好的事物上。\n真实表达你自己并不会损害你的人际关系，如果对方介意，那也许他与你并不相合\n当有负面情绪出现时，学习在公开场合说出你的心里话，或者至少承认你的感受\n转换\n\n9 --&gt; 3（健康）\n\n性格健康成长时，第9型人会到健康的第三型，对如何发挥自我潜能与积极提升自我成长相当感兴趣，收敛漫无目标与过度乐观的空想，有效率地掌握自己的生活。不再自我否定，也不会习惯性遇到困难就感到压力过大而提早放弃。懂得看重自己，勇于在自己的人生舞台上当主角。\n\n9 --&gt; 6（凋零）\n\n第九型当处在受压状态，担心无法顺利融入周围环境而与别人产生隔阂时，焦虑会浮上台面，呈现性格不健康的第6型的人特质，开始忙碌于工作，高压力逼迫自己，且开始抱怨。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"书同文字体理解","url":"/%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3.html","content":"\n刀与笔\n所有古代简牍上的文字，都是用毛笔书写，而不是刀刻的。百年来出土的战国秦汉乃至三国两晋的简牍多到难以计数，只要随便翻看其中任一种的图版，就可以知道“刀笔吏”的刀只是用来刮去错字，“笔”才用来是写字的。秦始皇厌恶竹简上“密密麻麻的刻痕”、“写下‘知道了’三个字，都要埋头刻上好久”，都是不可能发生的。\n秦国文字的复古\n相对东方六国文字而言，秦文字并不是“简化字”，而是最保守、最接近西周春秋文字的一种，在一定程度上，秦统一文字甚至起到了文字“复古”的作用。\n\n东周时期，秦一直是文化相对落后的国家，其疆域又处在西周故地（也是西北边陲），因而秦文字没能跟上东方六国文字剧烈变化的步伐，而是恪守陈规，很大程度上继承了西周春秋文字的字形及用字习惯。比如“马” ，秦文字与西周晚期至春秋的字形几乎全同，而东方六国的“马”字，有些已简化到只剩一个框加几横的地步了。\n\n「馬」在战国时期的简体写法普遍只保留马头（带鬃毛），马身被省略为几个横笔。而晋系(韩赵魏)的第三个「馬」字连横笔也省掉了，只剩下一个马头，与「目」形十分接近。\n\n\n正是由于秦统一后给汉字来了个“复古运动”，才使得后世继承秦文字而来的隶楷文字，有相当一部分能跟商或西周的古文字串连起来，也使得今天的古文字研究者，能够相对容易地读懂商周出土文献，或循着秦篆的形体，直接认读上古三代的甲骨、金文。若是其他国家（比如楚）统一了中国，那真是不堪设想……\n\n书同文\n秦始皇统一文字的主要内容，是规范字形与用字习惯，而不是简化。“字形”大家都理解，所谓“用字习惯”，是指用哪个“字”记录哪个“词”，如秦文字用“爵”记录爵位的“爵”，楚文字则用“雀”，后统一作“爵”；秦文字用“謗”记录诽谤的“谤”，楚文字则用“方”，后统一作“謗”；秦文字用“重”记录重量的“重”，三晋文字等则用“冢”，后统一作“重”等等。\n从这几个例子也可以看出，“书同文”重点在“同”，而非“简”。\n秦简日常体\n秦人书写在简牍上的文字，不是“小篆”，而是秦隶。\n“篆”是铭刻的意思，哪怕在秦代，篆书也只是用于金石铭刻的“标准体”，而不是日常使用的“手写体”。在所有出土的战国秦至秦代的简牍上，所能见到的都是笔画较为平直、易于书写的手写体（可以称为“秦隶书”），而绝不是盘曲婉转的“篆书”。\n从出土实物看，文字的“标准体”与“手写体”，或者说**“正体”与“俗体”是长期并存的**。“篆书”只见于秦刻石及铜器铭文，是“标准体”。而“秦隶书”本就是通形于战国秦地的手写体，不是秦统一文字之后，“下级书吏嫌小篆写起来还是麻烦，偷偷作了进一步简化”而成的。两套系统从不混用，也就不会有将竹简上的六国文字“翻译成秦篆”、“无论是从什么地方送来的竹简，上面都清晰工整地写着小篆”这样的事情了。\n字库演变而非闭门造车\n“小篆”是春秋战国时代的秦文字逐渐衍变而来的的，秦统一前后的文字，并没有明显的区别（所谓“大篆”、“小篆”的名称也是汉代才开始使用的）。“规范字库”不可能是一夜之间，由少数人“创造”出来的。 这就像我们今天所使用的“规范汉字”，也不是文字改革前夕由一小撮人闭门造车弄出来的，而基本是“述而不作”，是对于古已有之的简化字形的整理与认定（当然也有部分推衍），也是对民国时代兴起的汉字简化运动的继承与发展\n引用\n\n强烈推荐看原作的内容，2w 多字，详实多了\n\n1.知乎 关于秦始皇帝「书同文字」的新知，兼谈《小篆战争》 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["文字"]},{"title":"云原生基座下的大数据","url":"/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html","content":"\n存算耦合架构回顾\n最早的 Shared-Disk 架构主要是通过独立定制网络 NAS 于存储架构来实现第一代的存算分离架构，性能好但成本较高（采用网状通道技术交换机连接存储阵列和服务器主机，建立专用于数据存储的区域网络）, 可扩展性较差(ScaleUp)\n过去十几年 Shared-Nothing 架构，可以通过普通硬件实现类似高成本数据存储阵列所实现的效果，性能好且性价比高，有一定的可扩展性(ScaleOut)。可通过普通硬件实现类似高成本数据存储阵列所实现的效果。过去由于网络带宽的限制，我们习惯性的把计算和存储偶合在一起，以减少网络传输的压力.\nHadoop的三元老\n\nMapReduce负责计算\nYARN负责资源调度\nHDFS负责存数据\n\n发展最迅速的事计算组件这一层，业界在计算上面各显神通，造出了一大堆轮子，有MapReduce，Tez，Spark这样的计算框架，Hive这样的数据仓库，还有Presto，Impala查询引擎，各种各样的组件。配合这些组件的还有像sqoop这样的数据流转采集组件也很丰富。\n\n然而存储在问世十年后，还是HDFS一枝独秀，组件都是面向HDFS去设计的。\n\n如Hbase，在写 WAL log 的时候就深入利用了HDFS 的一些很内核的能力，以达到一个低时延的写入\nSpark 也提供了数据亲和性（Data Locality）的能力，这些都是HDFS 提供的一些特殊的 API\n\nHDFS自身架构的约束\nHDFS本身也有局限，NameNode不能分布式扩展，限制了单机群管理文件的数量。当NameNode的资源占用较多，负载高的时候可能会触发FullGC，影响整个集群的可用性。这也是HDFS高负载集群一直以来的痛点。\n\n根据运维经验，在3亿文件以内，运维HDFS还是比较轻松的，3亿后复杂度就会明显提升，峰值在5亿左右，就达到单集群天花板了。\n文件量更多，需要引入HDFS的Federaton联邦机制，增加了很多运维和管理的成本。\n\nHadoop组件生态碎片化\n另外Hadoop生态私有化部署，集成新的计算和存储技术，也有不小的碎片化难度。Hadoop的组件经常和HDFS和YARN的版本有严格适配要求，很多新的大数据组件不适配老的Hadoop，而升级Hadoop又会造成其它组件的生效。\n云厂商为了与现有Hadoop组件适配，一方面要去改造组件和对象存储之间的connector，一方面给上层组件去打patch，验证兼容性，是不小的工作量。所以公有云提供的大数据组件包含的计算组件也是有限的，一般只含Spark，Hive，Presto三个常用的，且还只包含少数几个版本。\n硬件的局限\nHadoop设计之初是一个存算耦合的架构，一个不可忽视的原因是网络通信和硬件的局限\n2006年Amazon才发布第一个云服务，机房里当时最大的问题是网卡，06年刚开始千兆，百兆还是主流。此时大数据搭配的磁盘，吞吐大概50MB/s，换算成网络贷款就是400Mbps，一个节点8块盘，吞吐都跑起来就需要几千Mbit传输了，可网卡最早也就1Gb，每一个网络节点带宽根本不够，故要让计算靠近存储\n数据处理任务从远程物理机读取数据开销大，故以数据为中心，将数据处理任务迁移到数据所在的物理机上，能有效降低网络贷款，保证整体性能，此即为存算一体的大数据技术架构。\n存算分离悄悄起了变化\n企业数据增长很快，但算力需求增长没那么快\n\n数据生产出来，不知道怎么用。但考虑到未来会用，企业都先把数据尽可能存起来，再去挖掘价值\n存算耦合的硬件拓扑结构给扩容带来一个影响。数据节点还负责计算，故CPU和内存配置也不能太差。机器都是计算和存储配置平衡的机器：足够的存储容量+等量算力\n\n这样扩出来的算力，对企业来说造成了很大的浪费，资源利用率不平衡\n\n\n万兆网卡普及了，有些AI场景有100Gb网卡（10w兆），带宽提升明显，磁盘吞吐提升到了100MB/s，一个万兆网卡的实例，可差不多支持12块盘峰值吞吐，对大部分企业来说已够用，网络传输瓶颈基本不存在了。\n软件也在变化，算法和存储格式减少了要传输的数据量（压缩算法+列存储格式），IO瓶颈在合力作用下在弱化，存算分离可行性在得到保证\n\n最初的尝试\n\nYARN 会在节点上布一个 Node Manager的进程。有了 Node Manager 之后，YARN 就会认为 HDFS DataNode 的节点，在其管理范围之内，当需要计算任务可以分发到这个节点上来完成\n\n最初的尝试（2013 年在 Facebook ）来自于将HDFS与负责计算的worker分开部署（这样没引入新的组件），DataNode节点不再部署NodeManager，这样不再把计算任务发送到DataNode节点上，计算要用到的大数据都通过网络来传输，用万兆网卡去支持。\n尽管HDFS最巧妙的数据本地性设计被舍弃了，但给集群配置带来极大便利\n通过实验此改造，对整个平台性能的影响仅是几个百分点[3]，2%\n\n云厂商助力\n云计算厂商所提供的基础平台能力基本上解决了运维稳定性风险，改造周期长，资源使用成本的问题。将整体存算分离改造的复杂度明显降低，可行性提升。\n\n多租户资源共用机制（网络/存储作为基础设施共用）, 以降低支撑单用户的成本，有边际成本下降效应\n托管了运维复杂性问题：屏蔽网络，安全，稳定性风险，搭建周期长等难题\n\n从技术到成本的解决，让工程师更多尝试在公有云标准 IaaS 环境下不断改进大数据存算分离的技术方案，无论是数据湖存储加速还是缓存加速等等\n\n云原生时代\n以容器化和K8S为代表的云原生时代技术，已经引领一整套新的生态全景，涵盖10多个技术领域，如消息流处理，调度和任务编排，数据库等。在新技术和云平台的加持下，大家简便的享用着[分布式，弹性，存算分离（多副本容灾），资源隔离]等诸多技术福利，简直不要太幸福，另一方面，新的趋势也在催生一些旧的流行中间件，出现新竞品，如Pulsar之于Kafka。\n2021年，Spark 3.1正式支持了K8S，Kafka也发布了能运行在K8S上面的版本，这两个事件也表明大数据平台的云原生化已是大势所趋。按这个趋势，Hadoop也会迁移到K8S上，MapReduce被Spark替代，Yarn也被K8S替换，最坚挺的HDFS也在出现对标替代方案。\n资源调度的统一\n\nYARN Resource Manager负责集群中所有资源统一管理和分配，它接收来自各节点（Node Manager)的资源汇报信息，将资源按一定策略分配给各个应用程序，功能起始和K8S Scheduler功能非常类似\n不同场景需要的存储空间和算力配比不一样，造成集群资源浪费。算力需求也存在波峰波谷，不同业务对运行环境要求不同。Spark应用序绑定spark集群运行，web类型需实例快速水平扩展\n通过统一平台来混合部署提升资源利用率的需求强烈，容器技术的出现，给了IT行业统一运行环境的梦想和能力。Build Once，Run AnyWhere\n统一的Infrastructure平台能支持多种计算资源统一调度能力，如AI的GPU，web业务的cpu，大规模容器集群管理，K8S已是无可争议的事实标准\n针对K8S自带的资源调度器依次调度策略，不适合AI和大数据场景的问题（这些计算任务包含的容器想要的是，要么同时都成功，要么就都别执行，否则等于白跑），也有了增强型调度器Valcano（尤其是总体资源需求&gt;集群资源时，依次调度存在的问题很明显），Valcano解决了Gang Scheduling的问题，要么都成功，要么都别调度，基本可用来解决死锁问题，还提供多种调度算法，满足各种复杂场景需求，提高资源利用率。\n对象存储的基座\nHDFS上云碰到的矛盾\n企业自建大数据时，一般使用裸磁盘搭建HDFS，为了解决裸盘损坏的风险，HDFS设计了多副本机制保证数据安全性和可用性。数据上云，云提供给用户的是有多副本机制存储的云盘，直接用云盘就成9副本了，成本上升之余大量浪费资源\n云也会提供一些有裸磁盘的机型，但这类机型往往很少。云盘可以随意配置，但有裸盘的机型只有寥寥几款，选择余地不一定能匹配企业集群需要。\n况且你用裸盘，云的开箱即用，弹性伸缩按量付费这类优势，都被放弃了。自己创建机器，手动部署和维护，自己监控和运维，还不能方便的扩容。\n对象存储出位\n\n随之云计算成熟，多了一种对象存储作为选择，不少云厂商都在尝试往对象存储替代HDFS的方向去发展\n\n采用EC纠删方法，实现存储优化，低成本高可用，优于HDFS三副本\n开箱即用免运维，按量付费无需规划\n也支持海量中小文件，对非结构化数据分析场景较有用\n\n对象存储在并发访问的支持，前端应用的调用方面，默认高可用，及采用成本可控的分布式架构，相比HDFS文件系统，块存储和NAS存储有很大优势，因为是云端存算分离架构的主流存储底座。（阿里oss宣传冷热分层存储，整体存储预估下降成本20%）\n兼容（以JuiceFs举例）\n\nJuiceFS Hadoop SDK：部署在执行节点上，SDK完整兼容HDFS\n\n兼容POSIX API，HDFS在设计时就是简化版的POSIX\n得益于Hadoop的设计，在一个Hadoop集群里，可配置多个文件系统，JuiceFs可以和HDFS同时使用\n\nJuiceFS Metadata engine：相当于NameNode，文件系统的元数据信息存储地。\nS3 bucket：等同于DataNode，看成海量磁盘来用，它会管理好数据存储和副本的相关任务。\n对象存储的原生弱项\n\n文件listing性能比较弱（对象存储没有树形结构，是扁平的，当文件数量众多，前缀匹配搜索的性能比树形结构差），可listing又是文件系统中一个最基础的操作\n没有原子rename操作，影响人物稳定性和性能（用新文件/目录名，作为key复制旧对象，此时会发生数据拷贝，一次copy和一次delete）\nETL计算模型中，每个任务将结果写入临时目录，整个任务完成后临时目录改名正式目录即可。在常规文案系统中此操作是原子的，速度快，有事务性保证，可由于对象存储没有原生目录结构，处理rename是一个模拟过程，会包含大量系统内部数据拷贝，耗时比想象的多\n\nMR过程会产生大量的list和rename操作，相比原生HDFS，对象存储在大数据分析效能会有明显的性能损失\n\n\n最终一致性机制会降低计算过程的稳定性正确性\n\n多个客户端在一个路径下并发创建文件，这时调用 List API 得到的文件列表可能并不能包含所有创建好的文件列表，而是要等一段时间让对象存储的内部系统完成数据一致性同步，List在ETL 数据处理中经常用到，最终一致性可能会影响到数据的正确性和任务的稳定性\n\n\n\n对象存储的元数据加速\n\n直观简述：元数据操作会路由到元数据加速层进行处理，小投入大收益\n\n元信息数据（文件名，分块信息，分块所在的服务器等）存储在索引库表中。按主流公有云对象存储设计，会按照字典返回文件索引信息（索引信息存储在ssd盘上，拉取索引信息的性能会受限于SSD盘单进程限制），每个存储桶list qps很难达到很高的值\n\n以腾讯云的测试结果举例\n\n\n\n元数据数量\n指令\n开启元数据加速\n未开启\n\n\n\n\n5w\nls\n4.359s\n10.354s\n\n\n50w\nls -R\n7.065s\n21.376s\n\n\n1000个100KB文件的目录\nrename\n1.016s\n30.323s\n\n\n\n参考\n1.Juicedata，从 Hadoop 到云原生， 大数据平台如何做存算分离 ↩2.TencentCloud，听说你想把对象存储当 HDFS 用，我们这里有个方案 ↩3.Meta， Taking Advantage of a Disaggregated Storage and Compute Architecture ↩4.CSDN, Hadoop势微，云原生上位 ↩5.阿里技术, 大数据上云存算分离演进思考与实践 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["云原生","大数据","存储"]},{"title":"互联网交友","url":"/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E4%BA%A4%E5%8F%8B.html","content":"\n交友，跟人类所有活动一样，都是有动机的。三类诉求应该能涵盖\n\n要么某种同好聊得来，士为知己者死\n要么有所求(利益/信息流动)\n要么男女之爱\n\n数字不说谎\n人人都从陌生人开启，转入熟识，有些再继续转入陌生，走着这样的轮回，有些就真成了要好的朋友，但这个比例不会大。经数据调查证实，一个人真正的朋友多在10人以下，且一个人能保持联系的友人在150以下。这个数字在Facebook上也能得到印证，平均每人130个好友，但常联系的只有4-6个（放宽点在7-15个之间），通过分析用户的交际圈分组，85%的组是不属于朋友概念的，且多数是维持4-6组不超过10个人的关系人组。在北美的其它调查中，平均每个人有10个左右关系较近的朋友（每周交流或见面），同样佐证着数据范围。\n你可能好奇，what the hell about 150，150个人的维系差不多是普通人脑袋能力的上限。Oh my god，真的么？新石器时代的村庄，通常在达到150个人后，会拆分为2个，罗马军队也是150个互相认识的人一组，对数字不服来战。\n我更激进的认为，线上的轻量化使得你更容易与人保持联系，其实回归到线下，你会更加缩小朋友范围，以日常电话时间举例，你80%的电话是打给同样的4个人，表明电话圈是强关系控制的。说实在的，你的熟人没你想的那么多，精力跟不上时，你还会启动关注隐私问题。\n两大流派\n\n交友应用两大流派\n\n一个流派是把用户数据“封闭”，阻隔用户获得其他用户信息，站方从中赚钱，这就是“婚恋网站”；\n一个流派是把用户数据“开放”，用户随意搜索和联络其他用户，站方试图通过用户的粘度，而以广告费或增值费获得收入，这就是“（通用）交友网站”。\n\n基于“保持联系”的SNS应用成为主流；而“认识朋友”的SNS应用被边缘化，是最近这些年SNS领域的整体趋势。\n列了数字，其实也得谈谈产品。搞产品第一是搞定位人群，再之搞产品人员境界，此两点导致每款产品想要的世界不同。婚恋网站因为真正需要用户花大钱的交友过程，并不在其上实现，所以是个想象力不大的生意，我们不多谈。说另一派，不远的几年前，数家SNS网站并存，争斗的还很厉害，现在都消停了【咋个回事，网民规模脱离疯狂上升期是背后实质推手吧】，我们都说以史为镜，可知兴衰，开始吧。\nSNS的大败局：我们都不谈内部争斗问题\n开心网之死\n开心网死于腾讯的挤兑和微博的崛起。腾讯本走屌丝路线，以MySpace模式迎战51.com的，**且一般来说，社交网站可以由精英往草根发展，却难以从草根向精英发展。**但腾讯因为强大的QQ关系链支撑，就是可以做到逆袭。你以社交游戏起家，我就抄你一个开心农场出来，抄一套Facebook类的观感给白领人群用。\n\n这里有一点，紧随Facebook路线的校内网并没有像Facebook一样占领白领人群，因为中文公司用户保持联系的需求被其它工具个满足了，例如QQ。打动他们的是社交化游戏。\n\n09年微博的出现，又更多的分流了白领人群，状态更新什么的，我天然能替代，还能提供到更多有价值的信息，还有明星参与，且微博更好的察觉对接到了无线互联网的趋势（Twitter 70个字的限制你就知道天生要玩手机端）。\n51.com之死\n51的名字听起来像”我要“，总有人说搞情色交易或妓女化交友。但我觉得创始人绝不是这个初心吧，但确实走的是农村包围城市的道路，以简短好记的域名，不错的访问速度，席卷厂妹和二三线城市枯燥人群。\n其靠陌生人交友起家，在没有同好因素支撑的人群中，第一大支撑力就是荷尔蒙（展示自己或约炮，哎，寂寞啊。因为生活枯燥，其实他们有本能的思乡和地域情结）。如果陌生人之间缺乏约束，低俗后，容易对女性用户造成不利刺激，此类情况若驱逐走了女人，社区衰落是不可避免的。\n在急躁的盈利和发展压力下，搞出的东西没服务好自己的目标人群。搞游戏其实也不适合它，厂妹哪有时间玩游戏。往城市人群扩展，同样碰到草根转精英的不匹配问题。当然其死亡当然也少不了腾讯的挤兑。\nFacebook之活\nFacebook有很多缺陷，但是它靠发展为一个平台，撑了下来（且一直注重人的互动联系），这就像Amazon的创始人一样，靠的是洞察力布局支撑公司的发展。Myspace败在管理人员眼光（我想被新闻集团收购后的管理问题估计也导致它走向必败的结局）\nSNS结语\n保持联系比创建朋友重要\n但线上保持联系，不好做（手段很匮乏，除了评论回复，多是利用用户的虚荣心），其不像门户类并没有改变用户的阅读行为，聚餐，泡吧，踢球等导致交友结果和保持联系的行为，复制不到线上来。就像Facebook的长期繁荣也不是靠互动支撑一样（逃脱了每过几年被新兴形态挑战替代的风险）。\n总结下来，纯交友诉求的网站，除了婚恋类，后期都会遇到劣币驱逐良币的宿命问题。\n搞社区和UGC是一种出路，这两样要关注信噪比，低信噪比的产品也会自然变成落后的物种，消亡是注定的。信噪比不仅仅适用于社区内容类，所有SNS类都适用。微信的私密朋友圈交往，抢夺微博的人群，也是一个例子。\n互联网时代大分而不是大同\n因互联网时代引起的”大分“和年轻人总是不喜欢跟老产品老人们混在一起（老产品也感知不到年轻人的口味），使得认识朋友的需求永远极其庞大，“嗷嗷待哺”，站方只要提供一个合适的产品，就能快速发展。但拉到人群之后，你会继续面临保持联系的基石问题，如何把自己的平台变成一个重复访问的用户寄居地，哦，想起信噪比，听起来头大又那么牛逼！\n我说的都是错的！\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["社交"]},{"title":"五大新型黑产","url":"/%E4%BA%94%E5%A4%A7%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%A7.html","content":"\n就如历史的教训一书中所说，各个时代的丑恶只有种类的差别，而没有程度的不同，罪恶在每一个时代都蓬勃发展。黑产也环绕在我们这些心思简单的人身边。聊以记录，给立体脑袋的知识边角多填充点内容。\n\n如果没记错的话，内容应该来自公司的邮件推送，煞费苦心\n\n\n\n不断翻新的网络赌博\n不用过多解释，已形成完整产业链。甚至几个下方的黑产都是为非法赌博的衍生品。不得不说，合法的赌博只有政府开的有礼有节的档口，不是政府开的都没有良民证，也确实政府的智商税档口相对有礼有节一点。\n\n\n出租收款码轻松躺赚–实则在为黑产洗黑钱\n交付一定数额的押金，再按对方要求输入收款金额，然后把收款码截图发给对方，就能拿到一定比例的佣金。\n**非法赌博网站**精心研究出的新型洗钱路径，利用互联网的庞大用户将他们的赃款分散。不知不觉沦为了违法犯罪活动的工具，可能需要承担法律责任\n\n\n动辄千万的数据深化–刷量黑产\n从粉丝数，互动量，播放量，任何数据都可以轻易飙升，都可以造假，刷量服务随着技术日益升级，已然形成一条专业化，体系化，分工明确的黑产链\n\n\n出国务工高薪梦\n好机会，但门槛却很低，没工作经验，学历，专业的要求。其实这是招聘 网络博彩 行业推广业务员。让受害人人财两空的杀猪盘就是他们的杰作之一，外表光鲜，实际没有完成公司制定的业绩，就会遭到警告，记错，罚款甚至是毒打，软禁。\n\n\n谈恋爱误入杀猪盘\n杀猪盘是业界的一种俗称，指打着交友名义，通过培养感情获取信任，再诱惑受害者至**博彩网站**实施敛财的新型情感投资类诈骗，人才两空。\n\n\n博彩博彩，真是一个个诱人香喷喷的好项目。投资亦是Game，普通人上牌桌上莫过于放大自己的欲望！\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"五阶段职业模型","url":"/%E4%BA%94%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html","content":"\n一定是少数人经历全部5个阶段，更少的人经历过一次以上的周期循环。我们也会听到或看到有这样的人，在达到五个阶段中的某一个时刻，选择回到上一个阶段重新开始。\n五阶段职业模型\n搭建一个共同的语境，使得大家建设性的探讨职业进步，收获职业生活的洞察力。\n阶段并无职业路径的对错，因为它跟个人的欲望关联，且上山下山皆有流动。\n洞察可建立对自身的理解与对话，在碰到职业困惑时，能跳到更高的维度来看见自己，看到来时路与指引未来路。\n\n\n阶段1：测试你的训练成果\n测试你的知识和完成任务的初始技能，探究个人的核心资源和关键业务模块。例如大学毕业生即将开始第一份全职工作，切换职业身份重新开始\n阶段2：发展你的专长\n建立声誉（比知识技能发展重要），回应你的价值主张，如何帮助他人\n阶段3：在你的专长领域成为领导者\n挑战（切换思维模式，从第二阶段的自驱型的独立思考到系统化思考），帮助他人的工作变得更加有效\n阶段4：引领更加复杂的环境或超出你专长范围的环境\n走出舒适区，团队连接，需要更加综合的模型理解（企业模型等），你能否感知跨领域的问题，事件，需求和趋势，并实践指导解决\n阶段5：管理复杂度更高的环境或重新开始\n极少数人经历全部五个阶段，更少的人经历过一个以上的周期循环\n变身定位问题的提问者\n趋势方向上，我们会转变为定位问题的提问者\n\n从你告诉我怎么做做什么，到解决问题，提供答案的人，再到定位问题的提问者\n这个过程并不是那么简单，就如《你的灯亮着吗？》这本小书里提及的，如果对问题没有一定的常识，解决办法几乎毫无疑问是针对这一被误解的问题\n\n在构筑一个领域的常识或高阶知识时，本身就是一个不断捕捉和思考问题，独立思考的积累过程，这个过程中\n\n首先是时刻保持问题意识，有效的问题多半与生活和历史的情境有关，抓住问题有时要求走出书本\n找（提）出自己的问题，问题很小无关紧要。大问题总是通过小问题来显露端倪。\n再次，在思考中澄清扩展提升问题，当你用尽所学仍不能做出令自己信服的答案时，恭喜你，找到了自己的真问题大问题。记录或表达出来寻找共鸣或更好的分析和回答。\n\n尽力的往复，这就是你的深层积累，换种形象的说法，是一种摔熟泥巴的过程。雕塑家在未形成作品的构思时，摔泥巴是他们的日常活动。\n\n尽力的往复且澄清扩展，感知现象–探索规律，从现象摸索更高能级的规律解。\n如光电效应一般，尽力的往复加深仿佛就是提高辐照光束频率，这才能高效的促成激发\n\n价值主张的机会矩阵\n\n问题，事件，需求，趋势\n\n\n\n\n待帮助/待解决机会分类\n价值探测解析\n价值主张（提供的帮助）\n价值主张内涵\n\n\n\n\n问题\n东西坏了，运行不良，或新需求萌生\n解决方案\n对新方法，新服务或新产品进行调整，修复或建议\n\n\n事件\n东西没坏，但规则，条件改变了。如新法律\n创新\n适应新事件的影响，前摄性地调整事务或环境\n\n\n需求\n填补空白，如进军新市场\n资源\n满足需求的人力，资金，物料或知识产权\n\n\n趋势\n事物在朝新的方向演进，或人们习惯发生了改变。如行业机器人化，衍生公司要减少原有人员，补充机器人工程师\n定位&amp;创意\n利用趋势或最小化风险\n\n\n\n问题方向不同，致使解决问题所提供的价值主张有所区分。细分带来不同的机会，商业上更是如此。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["职涯"]},{"title":"亚伯拉罕诸教的差异","url":"/%E4%BA%9A%E4%BC%AF%E6%8B%89%E7%BD%95%E8%AF%B8%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n亚伯拉罕诸教\n基督教、伊斯兰教和犹太教被学术界称为亚伯拉罕诸教，因为他们都相信有位先知亚伯拉罕，在古兰经里，亚伯拉罕也称 易卜拉欣。\n经典成书的时间和过程\n\n\n《旧约》 前1200-前400年，上帝只选了犹太人做他的子民，从埃及返回迦南福地，建立国家，可惜后又被巴比伦国蹂躏。\n\n\n《新约》 公元50-100年 ，两约之间是记录空白。普世性较好，因为耶稣的时代，以色列这地方已经有很多不同种族混居，所以发展为其它种族也可以信仰基督。可惜不被犹太人所容，被钉死在十字架上。\n\n耶稣原本是犹太人，出生在地中海东岸的伯利恒（耶路撒冷南），当时此地属于罗马帝国。被征服地区的人不但没有公民权，反而是罗马征服的劫掠对象。\n为了反抗罗马征服的残暴统治，耶稣在原始犹太教基础上创立了基督教，给广大被征服地区人民带来了希望，自称弥撒亚（救世主）得罪了犹太教 [犹太教里本身也期待一个弥撒亚]，罗马人正在失去对很多地区的控制，行政当局也在寻找其统治不力的替罪羊，两者一拍即合耶稣蒙难。\n\n\n\n《古兰经》 公元610-633年。阿拉伯地区部落常年征战，贵族作威作福，商人和穷人都生活无望，且被波斯人欺压。默罕默德嫁给一个遗孀后，生活的挺滋润，经常山洞清修，本身不识字，但听过基督教牧师很多故事，在这样的时代背景下，借了基督教的很多信息创立了伊斯兰教。给了穷人希望，从实用的角度上强调顺从，团结阿拉伯人，取得了空前的成功。\n\n阿拉伯半岛生存条件比地中海差多了，沙漠多宗教多部族林立；穆罕默德出生在阿拉伯半岛红海东岸的麦加城，是阿拉伯人。\n阿拉伯人和犹太人都属于闪米特人的一支，可现在势同水火。其实当今的犹太人是精神上的犹太人，巴勒斯坦人才是传统意义上的犹太人（没有出去流浪），只不过皈依了伊斯兰教。\n\n\n\n每个后继者是前者的补丁版，古兰经是矛盾处最少的一个\n\n\n古兰经圣经异同\n主旨概念异同\n\n古兰经大量故事与新旧约一致\n古兰经不承认基督是神的儿子，因为这违背一神教的原则，基督只是与默罕默德一样的先知\n古兰经认为旧约，新约都是被篡改的经，而古兰经是创始之前就有的，天使授与先知\n根据圣经，人是堕落的罪人，而古兰经则说人不是罪人，但他基本上是善良的\n根据圣经，魔鬼是堕落的天使，而根据古兰经，魔鬼不是堕落的天使，而是堕落的精灵\n\n文本风格差异\n《圣经》文本的风格各异，不一而足，内容包括历史，诗歌，哲学，甚至私人信件和讲章，历史版本也多，原始文本是希伯来文和希腊文，现实流行文本是英文等欧洲文字。神学贯穿于文本意义的表达之中。\n《古兰经》文本的风格统一，是自由的韵文体。原始文本和现实通用文本是阿拉伯文，译本只能用做参考。信仰的表达不仅在于文本（text），还在于诵读（chanting）。与意义相比，声音的作用更加直接和实在。\n\n《古兰经》共114章，6236节，其中穆罕默德在麦加口述了86章，占全书的三分之二\n他迁移到麦地那以后又口述了28章，占全书的三分之一。麦地那的部分的确提倡圣战，应该也是解决矛盾的实用主义需要吧，毕竟默罕默德它最终发展成是政教合一。\n\n穆氏在麦加传教时期势单力薄，因此阿拉要先知与信士们对冒犯者温和宽恕，甚至以德报怨。\n麦地那伊教强势时期，针对异教徒与敌对者阿拉给穆氏的命令总是攻之杀之。\n\n\n\n信仰体系总体特征\n基督教强调信仰观念，犹太教强调行为律法，伊斯兰教观念和行为是紧密捆绑在一起的。\n《旧约》强调对神的“顺服”，但缺少普世性；《新约》强调的普世性，而弱化了仪式、律法的约束。从《旧约》中犹太人不断恶化的历史产生了末世观和对弥赛亚的期待。福音中所表达的是末世观。人们期待耶稣的再次降临和末日审判，他们过集体的生活，轻现世。保罗神学提出了“十字架奥义”即“赎罪说”，强调灵魂的拯救，是对末世观的扭转。但《新约》以《启示录》结局，末世观的影响非常深远，直至今日。\n在伊斯兰教中，造物主是绝对的超越的，人对主是绝对的依赖和服从。而信仰和仪式是紧密结合的。把对造物主的信仰与普世性结合起来，把精神的信与实践的信结合起来。\n\n伊斯兰教法规定，成年穆斯林在具备一定条件的情况下，要承担 “念、礼、斋、课、朝”五项基本功修，这是磨炼穆斯林宗教信仰意志所必须遵循的义务\n\n对死亡的看法\n基督教强调现世人避不开罪恶，信仰基督赎罪，死亡是人类犯罪后的结果，肉体死亡但灵魂未灭，赎罪说使得基督徒更为痛苦点。\n伊斯兰教则被称为“两世吉庆”的宗教，现世的享受与考验，后世的审判与结局，都需要一个“身体”来实践和承受。将今世的现实生活视为人的旅途，将后世视为人的归宿，倡导两世并重。\n二者都信死后复活，信末日审判，按生前善恶受审判，善者进入天园，永享幸福，恶者堕入火狱，备受痛苦。\n人间世认识差异\n伊斯兰主义意图借着实施伊斯兰宗教法（Shariah）以建立阿拉国度（Hakimiyyat Allah），以为那就是人间天国。\n\n理论上伊斯兰十分重视道德。原则上禁止收取利息、奸淫、酗酒、无故杀人、赌博等恶行〔包括禁食猪肉〕。按照伊斯兰教义，敬虔、顺从、慷慨、怜悯、宽恕、好客等都是美德。穆民之间也常强调宽恕、互爱与合一。\n但穆斯林没有义务爱仇敌，因为以眼还眼、以牙还牙，是天公地道准则，然而有时若不报复可算为是项赎罪功德。\n上述伦理准则“大致上”〔非尽然〕乃从犹‧基宗教传承的价值观\n\n按照基督信仰，人若不重生就不能见也不能进神的国，更不必说要靠守律法以建立人间天国，或者说就没有人间天国。\n两家教义大意\n基督教\n你行公义，好怜悯，存谦卑的心，与你的神同行。（弥迦书6：8） 耶稣对他说：“你要尽心、尽性、尽意爱主（你的神）。这是诫命中第一，且是最大的。其次也相仿，就是爱人如己。这两条诫命是律法和先知一切道理的总纲。”（马太22：37-40）、\n伊斯兰教\n\n一方面同情穷人，一方面让人忍受现世\n\n把自己的脸转向东方和西方，都不是正义。正义是信真主，信末日，信天神，信天经，信先知，并将所爱的财产施济亲戚、孤儿、贫民、旅客、乞丐和赎取奴隶，并谨守拜功，完纳天课，履行约言，忍受贫困、患难和战争。这等人，确是忠贞的；这等人，确是敬畏的。（古兰经2：177）。\n一些严重的观念冲突\n父子与主仆\n穆斯林最引以为豪的是“真主唯一”的一神信仰，引述主耶稣的话说 — “当相信并敬拜独一真神”，进而控诉说基督宗教徒的三位一体乃敬拜多神。\n对基督宗教而言，伊斯兰神观最大的缺失在于否定宇宙真神的父性。否定神是耶稣基督在天上的父，也是基督门徒在天上的父。“上帝是父”乃是犹‧基宗教共有的基本信念，由基督宗教加以进一步的发扬光大。\n在伊斯兰神人之间乃属于主仆关系而非如基督宗教的亲子关系；在神与人之间的亲情与生命关系层面；在伊斯兰世界，人不能称为阿拉的儿女，因为阿拉没有儿女。伊斯兰不单否定上帝是父，否定人（被上帝创造）是上帝儿女，而是主仆，也否定耶稣基督是上帝的独特儿子，人不可能与阿拉的生命与性情有份。\n两大教义形而上争论主仆与亲子之间的差别乃关乎生命的本位与本质，现实世界上还是地理地盘利益之争。\n救赎\n伊斯兰认为只有阿拉是救主，众先知只是真主委派给人类的代言人与警告者。认为人要得救唯有仰赖真主的怜悯并个人努力修行。相信通天的路是伊斯兰的“沙里亚”（宗教法，涵盖基本信仰、宗教功修，以及个人与社会生活守则）而非基督的十字架。否定主耶稣被钉死在十字架上，也否定十字架代罚替死的救赎恩情。穆斯林认为耶稣被钉死在十字架是误解历史，而十字架代罚替死的救赎是不合理性也违背道德的。伊斯兰教认为阿拉至高至伟且拥有无比权能，因此没有必要流血赎罪（剥离简化了《旧约》里“不流血罪得不到赦免”的天命）。他若愿意只要说声“赦免了”罪恶也就都赦免了。\n基督宗教确信耶稣基督不单是最后也是最伟大的使者与先知，更是上帝为全人类设立的独一救主与君王。基督信徒无不为基督十架代罚替死的救赎感恩称颂，穆民却看十字架为错误与羞辱。认信于流血赎罪的犹‧基宗教早已因个别因素停止杀牲献祭，而否定流血赎罪的伊教反而至今犹在朝觐季节大事宰牲。伊斯兰认为杀牲仪式无关赎罪，乃在表彰亚伯拉罕/穆民对阿拉的顺服与摆上「把某些东西呈交给另一个人，归还给主」。犹太教停止祭牲因圣殿早已被毁；基督宗教从开始即不祭牲因确信基督本身已成为终极性的代罪羊；\n基督宗教不单认同摩西律法的流血赎罪体制，更是藉着十字架的救赎把它涵义提升。伊斯兰以繁杂的宗教法为宝贝，基督教认为其实大多是糟粕，更可悲是因而错失了十字架的救赎恩情。\n\n十字架赎罪真理的缺失，致使看不到伊斯兰的阿拉对罪人终极性的爱悯。伊斯兰处处所表达的，乃是阿拉按自己意愿所命定“要怎样就怎样”的全能谕令。\n\n爱与怜悯\n伊斯兰不说“阿拉是爱”，因认为阿拉肯定是大过爱；但穆斯林乃开口闭口提述阿拉的慈悲（rahman）与怜悯（rahim）。承袭十字架学说，按基督信仰，主耶稣（神化身为人）十架上的死乃彰显了天父上帝在基督教为罪人自我牺牲的爱，犹如父母为儿女之受苦牺牲。\n按伊斯兰信仰，阿拉对他仆人的爱不过像君王或沙漠酋长对其子民般的施舍、赐福与恩待，无论在今生或来世，需什么给什么。针对天父上帝“在基督里”为罪人所作主动、十字架之爱的舍己牺牲，伊斯兰认为那是不必要、多余的；尊荣全能的阿拉没有必要这么样“作贱”自己！\n东西方争与不争\n基督教到了后来权力无边，而伊斯兰教从一开始就政教合一，二者水火矛盾很大程度上是利益之争。因为利益，两个宗教总是希望自己的教众越多越好。西方人不明白为什么中国人不信教，中国人同样不明白西方人非要入教。\n中国的道教受老子哲学影响，多数都是抱着出世的心态，一幅高冷样子，你爱入不入（老子的风格在文学回忆录系列中有较多的描述）。基督教和伊斯兰教不同，一听你没入教，立马一幅怜悯的姿态，这是上帝的弃民呀，赶紧入教救赎自己吧。\n中国道教人士，盛世上山修行，乱世下山救人，这很好，出家人就应该像个出家人的样子嘛。基督教和伊斯兰教一开始就要参与政治，争取权力，最终演变成利益之争。\n道教的特殊\n基本上所有宗教都是构建一个死后的世界，天堂、地狱、六道轮回，这些东西来营销本质是售卖来世的幸福。唯独中国道家讲今世的修炼，目标瞄着肉身成仙而去，本质上是一种身心修炼学说和技术。\n\n\n\n道家这个设置很难卖出去，有几个能修炼成的？太容易证伪\n\n\n而售卖来世的好处可以不考虑售后服务，也不用考虑顾客的评价。\n\n\n\n道教没有信徒供养系统，要么收精英，要么自己打工挣钱（看风水，算命，健身，驱邪，习武）。\n道家的精神状态\n说了某人的坏话，别的教都说你犯了口业，损福报，只有道教会说你是他的报应，他想找骂你成全了他，你是积德。\n烧香烧不着，可能道长会直接说那香受潮了，换一把别受影响。\n心情不好，很多人会劝你不要太敏感，要学会调节自己的情绪，道长会说不是你的问题，而是有人克你。\n道家主打一个无为自在，顺应本性，不留遗憾，只有活得畅快，才不憋屈，自然也就身心舒畅，少生病。\n中国人信自己不靠神拯救\n中国人不把神当做主人来信仰，从中外远古大洪水的处理方面就可见一斑，中国人相信自己不靠神拯救，努力工作，最终疏通战胜了洪水自然灾害。神只是中国人的打工仔，需要神仙帮忙的时候，先去烧香付订金，事成再去还愿。如果神仙能力不行，脾气好的也就拜拜了，脾气不好的可能直接砸了它，美其名曰追究违约责任，不过有砸佛像的，少有砸关二爷的，他更像中国人道德的模范，是中国人优良美德的化身。\n神仙在中国的待遇，简直妥妥工具人。\n\n例如人们出于工具性的目的和龙王建立了不对等的交换关系，不灵就抬出去晒太阳，抽鞭子，谁允许你躺平。\n神连单间都住不上，很多都是群租房，多教合一，一个庙里同时供奉佛，菩萨，关二爷，龙王…甚至还有孔夫子，一个大殿挤满各路神明。😂\n\n鲁迅说，中国人敬神，是想控制神，利用神才是主要的。想抱孙子就拜菩萨，想发财就拜财神，想读书做官就拜孔子，各路神仙随便用，不似西方意识中充斥神对人的惩戒与怜悯，中国人实用主义的行为，恰表现了以人为本的思想态度。\n如果神能让人丰衣足食，那么早就见过，曾经他是神农，后来他是袁老；若神能移山填海，那么他曾是愚公，现在被称为基建狂魔；神能百战百胜，曾经他叫轩辕，现在他在天安门广场上。炎黄子孙人人都是神，神就体现在每个中华儿女身上。\n扩展好奇下\n大食与教派\n倭马亚家族和哈希姆家族为争夺哈里发位置爆发内讧, 分裂为逊尼派和什叶派\n白衣大食：\n倭马亚王朝【逊尼派】\n黑衣大食\n阿拔斯王朝【借什叶派力量推翻了倭马亚王朝，可后来什叶派和王朝统治者哈希姆家族杠上了，哈希姆家族皈依了逊尼派，剧本就不按常理去发展】\n\n什叶派也有自己合理的解释：只有阿里的后代才是合法的哈里发继承人。而阿里是先知穆罕默德的侄儿兼女婿——也就是直系后裔，阿拔斯王室虽出自先知一系（也就是穆罕默德系）的哈希姆家族，但其祖先却是穆罕默德的叔父；故阿拔斯王室不具备合法的哈里发继承资格。\n可阿里已去世100多年，且由于倭马亚王朝对哈希姆家族的残酷打压，阿里的直系后裔早已在反抗倭马亚的过程中被斩草除根，绝后了。什叶派就是死脑筋。\n什叶派搬出之前抗争倭马亚时期出现的“隐遁伊玛目”理论，认为当年反抗倭马亚斗争中牺牲的最后一位伊玛目（阿里系嫡传领袖），并没有被倭马亚势力杀害，而是被真主置于人所不知的地方，将来会以救世主的身份重现，在人间建立正义和太平盛世。所以哈里发的位置依然是由这位不知道在哪儿的隐者来做。触及了阿拔斯的利益，就怪不得阿拔斯不念旧情了。\n\n中西亚沿线各板块会凭借畅通的东西商路而获益颇大，政治上的统一才能保证商路畅通。所以，为了商业利益，伊斯兰将中亚各地缘板块整合到了一起。正所谓经济基础决定上层建筑。而商业贸易的收益并非全部，还有以农牧业为生的部族和地区，并不会因为伊斯兰世界的大一统而分得一杯羹。总有一些边缘的地区和部族，在东西贸易的获利剖少，心不甘情不愿的被两河流域的伊斯兰中央政府统治，两河流域的体量有限，其地缘影响力不足以强横震慑地缘势力。\n哈希姆家族反对的，仅仅是倭马亚王朝本身，是想倭马亚家族取而代之，成为伊斯兰世界的统治者。而边缘势力他们不想被阿拉伯帝国统治，是想获得政治独立。原来的盟友变成了敌人，便不难解释为何边缘势力会重提隐遁伊玛目，否认阿拔斯王朝的统治合法性；而阿拔斯王朝则皈依受绝大部分穆斯林尊奉的逊尼派，转而对什叶派和边缘势力大势打压。\n两派冲突其本质是主张统一的伊斯兰中央政府与寻求独立的边缘势力之间的矛盾。后来16世纪伊朗萨法维帝国尊什叶派为国教的选择，也是地缘政治的因素，使得什叶派也有能挺胸抬头的一片天。\n阿巴斯王朝极为强盛，可蒙古西征铁蹄，仍然将其碾平。\n绿衣大食\n北非伊斯兰王国，法蒂玛王朝（909年，奥贝德拉什叶派首领在突尼斯以法蒂玛和阿里的后裔自居，自称哈里发），与黑衣大食并存一顿时间，但整体王朝时间较短，又被其大臣推翻，建立其它王朝，与我国历史上的交集较小。\n佛教\n是一神教吗\n\n\n如果“神”指的是世界的主宰、造物，佛教就是无神教（接近于万物有灵论）。佛教信仰的目标是涅槃，不是神，是一种修行的状态。\n\n\n如果“神”指的是超自然的存在，佛教就是多神教。佛教有许多天神地祗，但不包括佛、菩萨、罗汉。\n\n\n其实是一套哲学\n佛理和佛教是两个事情，不信教可以信佛理，例如善恶终有报，虽然轮回说是错的，但结果和初衷是好的，算是善意的谎言。\n佛教主讲的是降低欲望来获取平静，获取智慧。但民众理解能力太低，讲底层原理没有哲学功底的人很难听懂，为了打入下沉市场，轮回说完美贴合了人性的趋利避害，促成用户极速增长（概念能力）。\n\n推崇降低欲望，在宗教事务运作和传道手段上，又推崇多多造像，有功德有福报（竟然整出一本《大乘造像功德经》，也给了教众从业者灰度敛财的空间有利于组织的发展），侧面印证西游记如来讲的 经不可轻传。也得益于造像运动，历代的供养人给大家留下了宝贵的记录历史，生活，审美的传世作品。\n\n何为五荤三厌\n\n五荤指五辛（五种辛味蔬菜），道家佛家炼形家的五荤清单各有出入，但都有蒜，说是熟食生淫，生啖增恚[hui-4声，愤怒怨恨]（提高人的性欲，使人发怒）\n三厌道教指雁（天），狗（地），龟（水）。雁有夫妇之伦，狗有扈主之谊，乌龟有君臣忠敬之心，故不忍食。\n\n荤原本是荤辛，后不知何故，传为荤腥，从造字上看，荤草字头，为植物。腥月字旁，指肉类。\n五荤三厌是佛道二教的混合物。佛教为在家的男女教徒又制定了八项戒条：不杀生，不偷盗，不淫欲，不妄语，不饮酒，不眠华丽之床，不打扮及观听歌舞，正午过后不食。是为八戒。\n佛教禁欲与酒肉穿肠过\n禁欲不是目的，而是手段。如上五荤是五种含有大蒜素的蔬菜，它们会提升人的欲望，目的是不要被欲望干扰你的思维，近早达到不被欲望控制的状态。\n成佛不是剃发修行，不是具体的形象，看破了欲望，不被他操控，反过来掌控欲望的时候，就能做到胸有惊雷而面如平湖，泰山崩于前而不惊，才能真正百无禁忌，才能酒肉穿肠过，佛祖心中留，不被戒律形式所锢。\n为何要善良\n在弱肉强食的现实规则中，从善良中能得到切实的好处。善良能让你变强，本质上让你克制欲望，净化欲望，让你的眼睛和心更清澈，明心净目，看清很多事情，提升智慧提升创造力，提升思维能力，让你的判断更准确，当你在生活和事业上的决策比以前更正确，人生当然会变得更好，这就是善的好处。\n作恶有什么坏处？所有的罪恶都来自于对欲望的过度追求，所以恶的本质是你在追求欲望，并且被欲望控制。当你凝视欲望的深渊，深渊也会凝视你。失控的欲望会极大的影响你的判断力，影响你的思维能力，增加你出现重大决策错误的概率，最终导致灭亡，这才是善有善报，恶有恶报的唯物辩证解释。\n宗教一字师\n\n基督教：爱\n伊斯兰教：从（顺从）\n佛教：空\n道：虚/道（虚不是没有，是不执着于一端，自有规律），但道教也是最好教人自处的哲学，超越情绪的干扰。不管别人说你好，还是说你不好。说你好是因为别人今天心情不错，说你不好，是他今天自己有问题，所以看你不顺眼。大家要的是独立，让生命能站在自己的脚上，相比于儒家教的让人真诚，道家教人真实，所以自在。人到中年，有点道家思维挺好的。\n\n道法术器：法为人定，有善恶。\n\n道：方向；法：路的选择；术：驾驶技术，操作方法；器：车\n道：趋乐避苦；法：威逼利诱；术：具体实施过程；器：工具，资源，条件\n道：特定的顺风车；法：搭便车；术：戴高帽；器：小红花\n\n\n\n\n儒：礼（礼法，食不厌精脍不厌细）。改良后的儒家，把礼搞成实践仁的外在形式和途径，打扮成道德伪君子，不甘寂寞热衷入世，在权势旗下做个伪娘奴仆，多数历史下除了吃就是跪。\n\n儒家除了孔子等少数几个，都在术以下的层面，汉武帝看得很明白，独尊儒『术』，改造后的儒家是用来治士的\n理想是穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下。帝王可又不信这一套，拿着商君书管着千千万万读论语的人，算是一个扭曲的体系。\n儒家不算是实学，不教数学、自然科学和地理，更多是一种思想建设；最大的问题是没有胆量超越权势，和正义无缘\n\n\n\n\n佛修心，道修骨，儒修表\n三清只需泥土身，佛祖却要黄金渡，乱世佛门不问事，老君背剑救苍生\n\n参考\n1.认识伊基 从伊斯兰的古兰经与基督教的圣经看这两大宗教的异同 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"产品意识","url":"/%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86.html","content":"\n造神前言\n在互联网圈里混，多少要培养一些个人的产品意识。用最直白的话来说，什么是产品意识，其实就是对人性的洞察。所有的大而玄的东西谈产品，如果不说人话，你就可以把它们踢到垃圾堆里。有一段时间，在鹅厂狂吹张小龙，造神一样，其实也是广研团队下层自身需要的宣传，虽说造神，但不得不说张小龙确是人才，杰出程序员，到了不惑年纪，看透纷繁复杂的羁绊，了解各种行业迷障，搞产品懂用户也是一等一的厉害。特摘录改写部分分享内容，提醒自己没有一身研发功夫的产品经理不是好运营。我们这里不看营销，不看技术，只看产品。\n后来梁宁的产品经理30讲和增长30讲也讲的很好，讲到产品经理的能力其实是建立信息秩序的能力，干这行也需天分，天分的一点是敏感度高。后期难以培养，就像个性特征+动机+价值观=天赋一样，这些都是在其过往的经历中基本已经定型了，瓜若强扭大概率不甜。\n用户定位\n\n要设计一款网络产品，我觉得最关键的是首先是定位用户，而不是想做个什么，就像张小龙这样，研究透了群体，做么样的东西如何做不容易错。想干个东西，多问问题把自己问醒。三个就够，what/who/why。\nwho\n这个层面谁人都绕不过去，举例说微信就是做普通百姓，不限行业，不限能力，不限年龄。\nwhy\n各种不同类型的产品，就是找自己的价值点。微信以好玩起家，以简洁干练的爽构造自己的体验哲学，以低噪音生活化信息流经营自己的最大价值。莫提生态体系，那是讲给市场听的。\nwhat\n张小龙分享谈到的内容，更多的集中于what这个层面（因为他的who很宽泛）。 what中的产品展现气质的定位和哲学，粗线条的观点是有演绎推广内涵的。细的举例又具有醍醐灌顶的趣味效果。\n一款产品的气质其实也是讲产品经理的自我修养。what!\n洞察最本质的用户心理诉求\n心理满足的驱动力，远胜工具和省钱。面向普通用户的互联网产品，要利用好人性的驱动力，贪嗔痴或性。举例来说，\n\n\n微博上的用户心理诉求是自我存在感\n\n\n微信植根于手机环境，定位要比它更简单好玩，而不是简单的点对点省钱。\n\n\n\n关于微博和微信的用户画像分析可阅读另一篇详细的文章，传送门在此\n\n洞察诉求，要懂人，如何获取用户心理？\n这条线中，其实你无法了解他人，只能理解自己，要从己出发推演人最普遍的心理活动，捕捉大众需求，而不是海量的个性化需求。其实你蹦出来的或听到的琐碎好点子99%都是脱离需求的，用户反馈也只是帮你了解他们的想法，终要回到内省归纳。莫太相信集体智慧，集体决策导致平庸和各个部分的分裂，不要贬低自己，你的短板可能就是你的强项（例如，社交恐惧者可能知道怎么做社交产品）。哐哐哐地列了这么一大堆，强调的是重视让人都能用都会用的基本需求，很多（个性）需求都是不必做的。逼迫自己变成傻瓜看待产品，变不成就别放过第一印象（忘性大就记下来）\n营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚\n像《乌合之众》中说的一样，群体智商本身低于个体智商，群体自己会表现出像一个完整生命个体的特性，就好像蜜蜂群尽管没有管理层却会统一行动一样。傻傻的人们他们会跟风，自认为跟的是“时尚”，这种时尚是互联网产品重要的推动力，有价值的好用产品，会成为时尚。\n抛开价值，怎个好用？乔布斯的高境界在于Stay hungry，Stay foolish，如果套在用户身上，就是让我爽，不要让我思考。爽是用户需求，不思考是用户体验。在这种情况下，面向懒人设计，简化场景选择，保持主线质量，给用户自由用完即走，这样你才有好用的口碑。\n产品设计-少即是多\n像科学界的奥卡姆剃刀原则一样，理论都是宁少勿多。很多物理学家会说我们发现宇宙的规律是很简单的，那么既然上帝创造宇宙订立的规则都这么简单，然后演化出这么一个多样世界，为什么我们要把很多事情搞复杂化？留点空间，多点可能，因为你的决策来自个体推演，群体行为有规律但难以预测，你不也在试验和迭代吗，站在上帝身边的PM，也要学着上帝的哲学（做多就是抹杀）。体验要简单，规则要简单。记得每增加一种选择，都让用户迷惑，不固定感跟用户对随机的好奇，不是一个事儿。\n举个不设定复杂规则的例子，SNS玩的都是群体效应的功能。当初做摇一摇或者基于LBS的附近的人，也没想到用户会拿来干什么，只是往好玩好用，爽方面做。让用户自己去演化发掘（人们首次相互被看到时，值得期待用户间会发生什么，况且陌生人交友嗷嗷待哺，是你保底的需求点）。\n产品迭代的过程中，主线功能不强，堆再多辅助功能也没用，做好条理分类清晰的主体特性（分类本身就是人脑的学习&amp;工作机制的天性），感受关注用户的潮流和反应（非常重要），等待他们说，太好玩了。\n\n关于微信的发展和迭代路线，可窥见其对内核和次序的选择，传送门在此\n\n平等 &amp; 灵魂\n\n跟用户平等做朋友，做有灵魂的产品\n欢迎页是你为数不多的表达感受的地方，让每个欢迎页都是一个故事，让产品值得期待，传递人文意识当然更高级。\n文案特别提下，产品中的文字是你和用户在说话，反映了你的气质。不讨好用户，不抬高自己。不用“吧”，“哦”，提示语不累赘加“成功”等多余字眼，用你不用您，不勉强用户使用功能。QQ邮箱管理员附上真人信息，也是尊重用户的一种体现。\n**互联网产品应让个体更自由。**工业化满足低成本的诉求，个性化体现独特价值，长尾和碎片化越来越明显，大家可创造的希望也越来越多。但不意味着你能像超级App一样规模化成功。\n\n\n互联网没有造就一个大同的世界，而是大分。因为大分才是人群的本质，感谢互联网打破了时空阻隔。\n\n如果现在来回应what，应该是什么？\n\n\n有机联系的结构（产品结构）\n\n\n有肌肉（功能）\n\n\n有气质（价值观）\n\n\n反应敏捷（速度快）\n\n\n理性（逻辑清晰，交互合理）\n\n\n谈吐佳（文案）\n\n\n好玩的补充（醍醐提醒）\n\n管理是不自然的，SNS产品不要让用户卷入到管理工作中。例如通讯录分组（微博分组，google+其实做出来了没人用），别以为这是真实大众需求\n不搞已发送已阅读之类的，也是做到简洁自然不累赘。老板用上已阅读特性，还不把下面的人紧张死，要允许人性的缺陷存在。\n需要打通，说明不是需求。需要整合，说明都不行了。需要拉动，说明是KPI了。需要导入，说明没有生命力了。避免全面，全面的东西是平庸的。\n微博上的人的心理诉求是自我存在感，其实活得都不是自己，并不是自言自语，而是博主希望在听众心目中构筑自己希望的形象。微信植根朋友圈，信噪比高，让用户使用维护起来简单轻松，胜在这里\n\n后记\n这一篇记录的比较早，有一种在微信如日中天时代跪拜+碎碎念奉若圭臬的感觉，不如另一篇讲用户思维来得简洁，可以对照着看。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"人力资源的阶段和策略","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E7%9A%84%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E5%92%8C%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5.html","content":"\n前言\n\n文章摘抄而来，主要目的是解释领域概念。因为各领域都有很多系统化研究和沉淀，这些系统化的知识利于经验转化和传承的效率，也利于看清问题与共识交流。\n\n老板们永远希望人才能够“来之能战、战之能胜、胜之能好”。不仅如此，他们还希望人才能够跟随企业一起成长，焕发第二春。但他们的期望是一条不可能曲线，当人才带着职场经验过来，他们心里的决策模型已经固化，能力提升空间也有限，就是来寻求“能力套现”的，如果天天进行价值观“同化”，还希望人家再学习，再实现创意的井喷，这就非常不理智了。引进型人才确保发挥出正常水平即可。\n另一个无奈的现实是，高潜型人才也会出现“技能过时”，而成熟型人才也会出现“激励两难”。人力资源战略必须在动态中寻找空间。\n作者举的例子中混合型策略并不是华为独享代表，其实阿里，腾讯都是。常青树科技公司，必然都在赋能型上下了大工夫。\n赋能型的代表海底捞，中海地产，讲得也实在。\n面对职业倦怠期越来越短，人才战略的讨论，请见此文\n\n据非正式调研，\n\n\n1990-2000年期间，中国企业员工的平均职业倦怠期为5-7年；\n\n\n2001-2010年期间，平均职业倦怠期缩短为3-5年；\n\n\n2010-2020年期间，平均职业倦怠期进一步缩短为1-3.5年\n\n\n\n人力资源经营的四个阶段\n\n\n\n引入；\n\n\n增值，人力资本的初次增值，企业用沉淀的组织知识来提升人才素质，使其匹配企业的各类组织单元。如图中平坦曲线显示，这个环节的操作需要长期投入才能见效\n\n\n项目的激励（投资评估），人力资源的再次资本化，即将人才配置进组织单元里，辅以项目式的激励和风控机制，将其锁定为与项目的股权和债权关系。陡峭曲线显示这个环节的操作可以短期见效\n\n\n项目的赋能（投后管理），这是人力资本再次增值，即为项目提供人力资源管理解决方案，增加其成功可能性，同样需要长期投入才能见效\n\n\n\n三种人力资源战略与代表\n\n激励型人力资源战略\n\n让自带技能包核心人才与企业共同劣后，提升其意愿。适配低成本竞争战略（供给侧稳定，需规模效应摊低成本或需求侧大量重复标品，低价多销），仅需要快速稳定的输出\n\n人力资本增值出现在1、3阶段。用支付杠杆引来了成熟型人才，对其进行初步绑定后，再为他搭好班子，配好资源，下沉权力，再用激励手段将其牢牢绑在项目上。\n\n第一阶段用得好的是小米等互联网企业\n第三阶段用得好的典型是海尔，万科，碧桂园等传统企业的先锋。\n\n\n赋能型人力资源战略\n\n让企业的核心人才队伍良将如潮，用自身丰富的资源或方法论培养高潜型人才，提升核心人才仓的人才密度。\n适配差异化竞争战略，也就是厚利少销（聚焦高支付能力的客群）。要么供给侧有大量创新产品或服务，要么需求侧有精准的顾问式销售，让有限的客群产生体验感。人才必须实现与企业的融合，才能产生深度创意\n\n增值出现在2、4阶段。分为资源赋能和方法论赋能，前者指资源连接，后者的本质是人才培养。这样做企业必须有足够的底气：一是自己资源好，二是自己方法论好，能够让普通的人才快速成长。这是一条更不容易走的路。\n企业代表\n海底捞，中海地产是这种战略典型代表。海底捞有严格的任职资格体系，对人员的改造效率超高；中海地产为核心人才设计了阶梯式成长路径，在每个关键节点都有赋能项目的介入，使其人才培养与成长效率在业内首屈一指。\n这些企业不怕人才被挖走，挖走才有职位空缺让后来的年轻人上位，人才供应链才能正常运转（人才的年轻化是发展的诉求）。值得一提的是，不少企业选择这条路不是因为自己的资源和方法论好，而是为了节约成本。\n难走的路收益才厚\n难走的路：下跳棋没那么便宜\n不少企业想下跳棋，用“带教”来跳过知识管理（知识萃取，知识分享），这是错误的，采用这类战略的企业必须用心打磨自己的人力资源政策，在任职资格体系，素质模型，课程体系，讲师体系，培养项目等方面花心思，有投入。\n最佳状态\n最佳状态是：员工一旦进入人力资源体系，高手的知识自动上传，徒弟的知识自动下载。这种体系是卷入式的，不以个人意志为转移，才能实现真正意义上的赋能。\n\n混合型人力资源战略\n\n多数企业其实是执行混合人力资源战略\n\n华为是典型的例子，为员工设置了人才培养长周期，抵达产出的拐点之前（成为华为的“奋斗者”）以赋能为主，而在拐点到达之后则以激励为主，员工不仅可在项目中获取丰厚的奖金，还可以分享TUP激励，即有效期为5年的股权激励。\n大部分实施混合型的落实不好，因为决心不够，赛道不够。\n忌讳的操作\n胡乱建仓\n\n由于企业未清楚自己想要什么，导致大力气找来的大牛空降后迟迟不能有所产出。最后企业觉得自己花了冤枉钱，而大牛觉得企业耽误了自己的机会\n纸面上储备人才，动辄招入高、精、尖人才，并没有将人才校准至战略需求，不能发挥价值时，人才也会自然选择离开，最后的结果就是双输\n\n盲目乐观\n\n引入了成熟型人才之后，没有意识到他们的技能会随着企业的发展而“相对衰退”，没有提前做好补仓的准备，导致产品或服务水平波动。\n高潜人才发展带来的红利后，没有意识到他们有离开的风险，依然用感情去规划未来，没有提前做好补仓的准备，导致的产品或服务竞争力不足\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"人文旅者","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%97%85%E8%80%85.html","content":"\n人文旅者\n上周下班路上撞见同事，等地铁间隙串起话题她在这疫情年还出游了-- 四姑娘山，一个四川阿坝藏族羌族自治县的景点。相较于这种内心所往风雨无阻，我就顺嘴自嘲自己就没这份勇气（19年其实到了不少地方，算是非常有收获了）。对方（园园）也很有趣的说起，记忆里我应该也是很爱玩的人，在敦煌都流连超时不愿上大巴，可不，封面就是在敦煌景区展览馆拍的一些文物复制品，我个人对于这种历史物件，非常有好感。\n这引起了一个差异话题，接着聊起来，例如她就打卡自然景点，我就更偏向人文景点，在自然景点，我更像是一个做任务者，要从起点冲到终点，不能掉队，不喜拍照，不喜一直停留，这种习惯可能原因有三\n\n\n自然除去美景，还有很多不便和危险，人类个体并无对抗自然的决胜能力，美景与危险并存，其实并不能长久相处（自己也有舍友生活在西藏半年，2周后就彻底对周遭景色失去了感觉）。通常时间计划安排紧密，为了在有限的时间里观览足够多的景色，也需要快步赶路，才有可能充分贪多式观看。另附带有明确的目的地，最终在阶段性目的地附近游览更为妥当，不给团队造成麻烦\n自己幼小一直生活在城镇中，更熟悉人群聚居的环境\n自然的故事没有温度，没有多样化演绎，没有嬉笑怒骂，没有我了解的故事凝结，触发不了最大化的思索联想\n\n从书本上接触到了除了名山大川，更多的是历史人文古迹与文物，这些文物凝结了时代的故事，穿越了时空来到我们面前，从接触和了解的密度而言，我更喜欢联想这些物件当时所见证的一切。\n正如《春江花月夜》中的诗文所比：\n\n江畔何人初见月，江月何年初照人\n\n我更关心的是这里的核心 – 人\n又如李白的《把酒问月》里：\n\n今人不见古时月，今月曾经照古人\n\n这里的第一句的古时月，就好比当时的故事，第二句的今月就相当于穿越时空来到今人面前的物件。\n穿梭城市亦然，我可以观察不同地方人的生活习性的差别，语言的差别，饮食的差别，建筑的差别，地理的差别，气候的差别，这些差别构成了一幅完整的画卷，你不可能活出一份完整的人生，这些画卷丰富了你的体验，联系了你有限的知识，而你，只需要驱动身体+开动脑筋。\n别了，那些广袤的历险之地，洞天福地，有限的选择我投向能将眼睛和大脑喂饱的地方，因为放空实在有太多的办法。\n后记\n附上几张19年国博，中国美术馆和天津，西部所拍的照片，聊以记录那经历的时光\n\n\n\n天津也正是因为海河，孕育与北京截然不同的气息风格\n\n大家同时拍四羊方尊，记录下来比我拍的一张干净的四羊方尊照更有意思\n\n\n\n日常训练并不让拍\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["日记"]},{"title":"人生三见-不着相","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%81-%E4%B8%8D%E7%9D%80%E7%9B%B8.html","content":"\n见天地，见众生，见自己\n天地\n天地是规律是时序轮转，是道法自然，阴晴圆缺\n见了天地，格局宽广了，心胸开阔了，体会了伟大与渺小，尽力谦卑\n自己\n自己是一团被欲望塑造的七情六欲，贪嗔痴恋，得见自己，唯有回归本心，自知，自省。\n见了本我，感受真我，不以物喜不以己悲，最终自然通透豁达。\n众生\n众生是人性，妖魔鬼怪，名利权情。经历人生起伏，体验人情冷暖。\n何以得见众生，无谓善恶是非。见了众生万相，修得荣辱不惊，众生在眼中，也在心中。\n容而不满，痛而不悲，苦而不语，宽容自生\n\n见山仍是山\n\n苏轼晚期的诗《观潮》：庐山烟雨浙江潮，未至千般恨不消。到得还来别无事，庐山烟雨浙江潮。\n\n还来：回来\n\n王国维《人间词话》描绘读书的三重境界亦是同味\n\n昨夜西风凋碧树，独上高楼，望尽天涯路\n衣带渐宽终不悔，为伊消得人憔悴\n众里寻他千百度，蓦然回首，那人却在灯火阑珊处\n\n不着相\n\n金刚经向外破相，心经向内破执\n\n金刚经所说的其实是这样一句：人生不过是一场游戏，不要着相。只要你不着相的玩下去，所有的游戏都是好玩的，也不会有苦和恐惧来折磨你。\n\n人生三万天，放在历史的长河中连沙子都不是，就跟没来过这个世上一样，就如你不记得你的太爷爷是谁一样。人这一世玩累了就回去躺着了，你会死，你身边的人都会死，你在意的事情终有一天都会消失，空无一物来，空无一物走，那么沉重没必要。\n生活就像一场游戏，重在享受体验，谈恋爱关系不能带来快乐就分开呗，找另一个人谈朋友，不断的向前，像水一样不断的向前流动。你活成一个苦瓜，你这辈子也不重要的，终点也是死亡；勇敢追求自己想过的生活，终点也一样。大家只是过程的不同，过程的体验不同。\n\n佛像大人，带着我们这些凡夫状的小孩去游乐场，每玩完一个好玩的，小孩子总想多玩几次赖着不肯走。佛陀告诉小孩不要太执着一样游戏，小孩终又哭又闹，心不甘情不愿继续玩下一个后同理亦不舍。等到全部玩完要回家时，又抱着游乐场的大门柱子不放，要死要活不闹不休。\n\n任凭佛陀一再解释这个游乐场是假的，只是个梦，但小孩子听不进去，游乐场在小孩眼里是真实不虚的天堂，在里面永远是那么快乐。但在佛陀心中清楚这座游乐场是很多因缘聚合而成的假相，所以他不会执着，而我们小孩子会执着认为这些游乐场会永远存在。\n\n金刚经是要告诉我们，生命的过程是要我们体验了解生存的感觉。用有限脆弱的生命，且使用期限不长的肉体，来完成一些使命和任务，悟透一些道理，重拾我们的本心。包括对金钱的态度，如果我们不懂得用钱，不懂得钱的力量的和意义，人生功课也是等于交白卷。\n换一种世俗的角度来说这个事，人在起步的岁数，看世界上的一切皆神奇，去到一个从来没去过的地方，见到一个从来没见过的风景，遇到一个可爱的人，觉得兴奋异常。等到后来，发现很多的地方都很相像，所有的风景都很重复，所有的事情都很平庸，所有的事情或许没什么最终意义，心情就会变得沮丧，此时没有一个游戏心态，情何以堪。\n从微观的角度，只有把生活当做游戏才能快乐；从存在的角度，只有把存在当做游戏才能超脱。上面蓝色字体总结表达的就很到位。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"人种迁徙与语言分布","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83.html","content":"\n当初看《人类基因的历史地图》这本书，实在有些啃不下去，配图太少，不善用符号，文字没有情感，导致基本只能记住线粒体夏娃，中国的黄种人由东南亚进入中国版图这样的印象。是近几年中读书没有读完丢在一边的特例，但仍埋下了种子。无意间网络间见一老兄推荐『天涯论坛』的一篇帖子讲世界中国史(此链接已失效)，过去一观，开篇的问题就能勾住我的眼球，没想到接着往下翻，前面古人类的篇章，写的非常好，遂摘录整理，非常感谢原作者。作者的帖子火了，后来也出了书（在参考资料章节），是对知识和实力的肯定。\n地理与气候\n地区盛兴的气候，植被，风向本文并不细讲，其实地理联合气候决定了很多大历史，是探讨大周期历史必须要关注的，正所谓地理是最大的历史，不过本文摘录的重心不在这里，就简要记录几个有名的地点解释，放在文尾。\n人类登场\n\n在登场之前的年代，最有名的就是恐龙时代了，距今过于久远，人类并不是最佳运动员，不是体力身形最大者，但现在是地球实际的霸主，我们来一张动物身形对比图, 看看我们地球上曾经出现过的恐龙猛兽们。\n\n\n蓝鲸没有恐龙大，但可能借助海洋的浮力，有着更多肉更重的身体。\n翼龙不是恐龙，而是一种会飞的爬行动物，翼龙和恐龙、鳄鱼都是从主龙类爬行动物进化而来，算是表亲（骨骼结构不同；恐龙定义很窄：限指蜥臀目和鸟臀目，且限于陆上爬行类。其希腊语名词本意就是恐怖的蜥蜴；\n恐龙一词翻译取自日本，日本人将这这个外来词翻成恐竜，被旧时代的中国借鉴复用）。翼龙没能进而为鸟类就灭亡了，一般认为鸟类是由恐龙中个体较小，身体轻巧，速度快速的驰龙科进化而来的。\n\n按照现代生物进化分类学“界门纲目科属种”七分法，人类属于动物界—脊索动物门—哺乳纲—灵长目—类人猿亚目—人科—人属—智人种。现存与人类关系最亲密的就是类人猿亚目生物，共分为长臂猿、红毛猩猩、大猩猩、黑猩猩四大类，号称四大类人猿。\n直立人\n\n更古老的南方古猿等等猿类就不讲了，直接从直立人开始。为何直立人能如此强大，成为猿人中唯一幸存者？答案就在他的名字上——直立，以猩猩为代表的灵长类动物其上肢比下肢更发达，而直立人下肢骨骼明显比上肢粗硕，关节韧带牢固，大腿肌肉发达，已经和人基本无异，完全为行走而生。\n其大脑左右两半球出现了不对称性，显示出直立人已经有了掌握有声语言的能力。两足行走和大脑发展让他们更好的使用双手并进行发明创造，他们开始使用火种，并发明了制造工具的工具——手斧。\n手斧让他们制造工具更加精细，并出现较先进捕猎工具——石球，石球是一种投掷工具，除了用手直接投掷外，还能作绊兽索和飞石索使用，其有效射程可达50-60米之远。\n工具的更新让直立人狩猎能力大大提高，而直立行走让他们完全他们更好的迁移和奔走，直立人开始大批走出非洲，向世界各地扩张觅食，在欧亚大陆各地发现的欧洲前人、印尼瓜哇猿人、中国的北京猿人、陕西蓝田人、云南元谋人都属于直立人种。\n多地区进化说被否决\n因为中国出土了连续性化石遗址，而世界各地也都出土猿人的化石，所以中国原来一直是“人类多地区进化说”的支持者，主张现今的棕黑黄白四大人种分别起源于澳大利亚、非洲、中国、欧洲四个地区，分别从当地猿人进化而来。\n\n黑人腿长，擅长奔跑和跳跃，打篮球。黄种人四肢短适合举重，如女子举重几乎被中国和朝鲜垄断。\n\n这种学说符合种族主义的观点，也就是说现存人类早在猿猴时期就分出个高下不同，不过在化石和地质学发现上目前却非常不给力。\n东亚直立人灭绝\n通过地质学推测在10万——6万前，东亚地区经历了一次剧烈的冰川期，东亚气候可能不再适合人类生存，原来繁盛的东亚古代直立人（如北京人、蓝田人）消失了。在距今8万——5万年间，中国境内没有发现古人类化石。化石断层的存在说明中国境内直立人可能都灭绝了，没有进化为距今3万年左右的山顶洞人。\n当然化石没发现，并不代表没有，但是“人类多地区进化说”最关键的是违反了遗传学上的常识。因为这根本无法解释太早分化却没造成我们和其它人种的生殖隔离，如狮子和豹子间才有100万年的进化距离，就无法繁殖后代，直立人可是180万年前就出现的物种，能够繁衍后代的四大人种间显然没有这么大的进化距离。\n如果“多源说”成立，意味着中国人和直立人这些猿人血缘关系比白人、黑人更近。既然中国人能和白人、黑人混血，意味着更能和和直立人等猿人混血繁衍后代，想想直立人是什么样的吧，眉骨突出，嘴巴突出，全身长毛，相当于现代人和猩猩差别一样大，完全是两个物种，连语言发音都可能不相同，而白人、黑人主要只是肤色、发色差别，语言也无发音障碍。明显从外貌看中国人和黑人、白人更像是近戚，而直立人只能和猩猩攀亲戚。而且各地直立人能一致突变出只是肤色不同、还能繁殖后代的现代人类，这对进化论来说根本就是天方夜谭。\n单源说是主流\n目前科学家通过基因检测的方法得出北京猿人是一种已灭绝的人科动物，四大人种都是起源于非洲的智人的后代，单源说已经成为主流。\n\n人属（学名 Homo）是人亚科下的一属，共 17 种，其中 16 种已经灭绝\n\n已灭亡的人种代表\n海德堡人大约在70万年前从直立人演化而来，是直立人的一个亚种，比直立人脑容量大（1100~1400 vs 900~1200 ml），被认为是智人的祖先, 且已经会制作工具，其活动范围主要在欧洲和非洲，那时这两块大陆相连，后来海平面上升，欧洲和非洲被隔离，遂区分为欧洲海德堡人和非洲海德堡人，演化出两种不同的智人。\n尼安德特人\n欧洲海德堡人先行演化成适应寒冷生活的尼安德特人（早期智人），其分布足迹遍布整个欧洲到西亚，甚至中国和西伯利亚也留下踪影，但非洲没有发现化石，估计没进入非洲。他们会保存火，形成了原始的宗教，虽有比现代人更大的大脑，但未必更聪明，从数万年间工具没有更新就可见一斑。\n在非洲的海德堡人稍晚一点在撒哈拉以南演化出现代人祖先，成为晚期智人。现代人有出色的狩猎技术，进入欧洲时，也是尼安德特人遗迹消失的时候，在灭亡大部分尼安德特人时，也在地中海东部与小部分尼安德特人发生了混血，所以目前除非洲外的人类大都含有尼安德特人的基因。\n佛洛勒斯人\n除了尼安德特人和现代人外，印尼猿人也演化出新的物种佛洛勒斯人，传说被称为“小矮人”：霍比特人，身材矮小，仅1米左右，脑容量为现代人1/3，但构造复杂智商也高，遗憾的是，1.3w年前的一次火山喷发，这群印尼霍比特人全部灭绝。\n现代智人\n人科动物虽然下属种类极多，但只有现代智人种存活下来，这说明拥有高智力并非就能在物种竞争中占据优势，就好比现在最聪明的猩猩也当不了百兽之王一样。只有当智力发展到一定高度，人类才整正成为地球霸主，现代人的演化也并非一蹴而就。\n过去教科书一般把现代人种根据肤色划分为几大人种，但其实更应该以遗传学为依据，通过演化的过程进行划分，肤色只是表象而非本质。\n\n就像非洲鬣狗虽然长了副狗的模样却属于猫型亚目，和其他猫科动物一样有相同的祖先，和狗只有八竿子打不着的关系。\n\n基因也并非越纯种越好，事实证明较纯种的基因大多是人口较少，与世隔绝的小部落，而发达地区，因为吸纳各地优秀人才，必然融入更多种族基因。分子生物学的研究，现在地球各人种，都是十五万年前某一非洲女性祖先的后代，男性祖先是一名六万年前居住在非洲的男子(亚当年限不同文献有不同的说法，wiki百科倾向于6~9万年之间)，有究底兴趣可看文章线粒体夏娃，亚当夏娃相差近9万年。\n人类迁徙发展\nY染色体立大功\n单倍群\n单倍群或单倍型类型是一组类似的单倍型，它们有公共的单核苷酸多态性祖先，单倍型是单倍体基因型的简称，在遗传学上是指在同一染色体上进行共同遗传的多个基因座上等位基因的组合\n\n中国人的单倍群类型是O3，不过O3不仅出现在中国，在东南亚也大量存在\n\n当前科学家已经将各民族的父系来源通过Y染色体研究的比较清楚，而母系来源至今如同雾里看花，几乎所有民族的母系构成都比父系复杂，主要有以下两点原因：\n\n斗争中，弱小民族的男子多数被杀死，而女子往往作为战利品被战胜方掠走，导致母系来源较丰富\n通婚主要表现为女子外嫁，一个地方男性来源都是本地男性，而女性来源则来自各地。\n\n只要通过Y染色体就能比较清晰发现人群的迁徙和发展，但这仅仅是因为其遗传模式简单，容易研究，无关疾病，相貌，相对说得清楚一些。\n\n当然，忽略N代前无数个母系祖先而只管一个纯父系祖先传下来的遗传物质，无疑是荒谬的，如欧洲白人基因R，世代娶E（黑人基因）女性为妻，尽管父系染色体还是R，但体质实际上就等同于E，已经完全是黑人了。\n\n今天所有人类的Y染色体单倍体类型（只有精子和卵子是单倍体，其他细胞都是双倍体）都能在非洲找到（M168、YAP、M130）类型，而非洲以外的居民，都是一支走出非洲居民的后裔，他们的Y染色体上都带有M168的突变点。这就是亚当的后代，在以后的历史中，人类依次发生几次基因分化，形成现在不同的人种，按先后，用A、B、C等来标识\n\n Y染色体在遗传的过程中，每经历一定的世代就会出现一个随机的SNP突变，父系关系更近的男性共享更多的SNP突变，通过这个方法我们可以判断不同男性之间的父系家族关系。将所有男性的Y染色体进行对比，我们就能得到人类父系家族的谱系树\nSNP突变发生的速率基本是稳定的，这样我们只要得到两个男性的Y染色体各自积累的特异SNP数量，就可以据此计算出这两个男性个体的最近共祖时间\n\n结论先行\n\n\n分化次序文字化解释\n一：祖先人——A科伊桑人（南部非洲棕种人）、B非科伊桑人\n\nA——科伊桑人：代表是南部非洲棕种人，目前非洲南部国家有大量他们的单倍群类型\n\n二：非科伊桑人——B尼格利罗人、C非尼格利罗人\n\nB——尼格利罗人：代表是非洲中西部矮小俾格米黑人，主要集中在非洲中西部国家\n\n三： 非尼格利罗人——CF集团、DE尼格罗—尼格利陀人种（亚非黑种人）\n四：DE尼格罗—尼格利陀人种——D阿伊努—尼格利陀人人种、E.尼格罗人种（常见黑人）\n\nD——尼格利陀人：他们父系单倍群比率占印度安达曼群岛土著(100%)、尼格利陀人苏门答腊岛土著(91%)、阿伊努人（90%）、冲绳人(55%)、藏族(50%)、彝族（40%）、日本(34.7%)、朝鲜(7%)\nE——尼格罗人：常见到的身材高大非洲黑人单倍群\n\n五：CF集团——C棕色人种、F中东部落\n\nC棕种人在大洋洲他们的父系占澳大利亚土著的70%、几内亚岛的25%、婆罗洲的17%、在南亚个别达罗毗图语系民族中比率达到20%\nC3——蒙古支：如今亚洲满族的25%、朝鲜族的16%、蒙古族的58%、布拉特蒙古人在60%、哈萨克族的45%、吉尔吉斯人60%、回族的23%、阿尔泰族的23%、乌孜别克族的17%都含有C3单倍群，尤其是西伯利亚南部和东北亚鄂温克族、鄂伦春族等通古斯民族C3单倍群更高达60%以上，在北美阿拉斯加印第安人种比率也高达30%，\n\n六：F中东部落——G高加索单倍群、H印度蒙达单倍群和IJK集团\n\n中东部落：广泛分布欧亚，其中有一支较古老的在斯里兰卡，又叫斯里兰卡单倍群，占达罗毗荼人诸民族的13%\nG高加索人种：占亚美尼亚人20%，又叫亚美尼亚单倍群，意大利族的6%、伊朗族的5%、土耳其族的11%\n印度H单倍群 占达罗毗荼人种18% 、印欧语系的印度人的20%\n\n七：IJK集团——克罗马农人种I、地中海人种J、欧亚部落K\n\nI克罗马农人：主要分布北欧—巴尔干—欧洲—中东，今天克罗地亚50%、冰岛的37%、苏格兰的20%、挪威族的30%、德意志族 的25%、西班牙族的12%、意大利族的15%、伊朗族的18%、俄罗斯族的18%、土耳其族的15%都为I\nJ典型地中海人种：闪米特阿拉伯-犹太单倍群，主要分布中东-南欧，中东阿拉伯族的48%、土耳其族的25%、意大利族的 20%、埃塞俄比亚族的15%、伊朗族的12%、印度达罗毗图诸民族的12%、维吾尔族的10%、苏丹的10%为J类型\n\n八：K欧亚部落——LT集团和MNOPS集团\n九：LT集团——L达罗毗荼人单倍群和T埃塞俄比亚单倍群\n\n印度L单倍群：占达罗毗荼人种30%、印欧语系的印度人26%\nT埃塞俄比亚单倍群：主要分布在埃塞俄比亚和埃及，又叫做埃及基因\n\n十：MNOPS集团——伊里安查亚新几内亚M单倍群、巴布亚新几内亚S单倍群、NO黄种人和P中亚部落\n\nS——巴布亚新几内亚高地人S单倍群：主要分布在大洋州、巴布亚新几内亚单倍群，苏门答腊岛的15%、婆罗洲的16%、伊里安查亚新几内亚5%、巴布亚新几内亚的59%\nM——伊里安查亚新几内亚M单倍群，伊里安查亚新几内亚的70%、巴布亚新几内亚的34%拥有M\nN——芬兰-乌拉尔极北单倍群，主要分布在乌拉尔山两侧、北欧北部、东欧北部和北极圈内，占部分乌拉尔族80%、芬兰52%、爱沙尼亚40%、爱斯基摩人40%、喀山鞑靼21%、俄罗斯18%、满族15%、叶尼塞鄂温克族17%、\n\n十一：NO黄种人——N北亚黄种人、O东亚—东南亚黄种人\n十二：O东亚—东南亚黄种人——O1南岛支、O2泰柬支、O3华夏支\n\nO1——南岛支：主要分布在马来半岛、马来群岛、以及太平洋三大半岛上，其中高山族100%、汤加82%、壮族的17.9%、泰国泰族的10%、越南京族的7%、柬埔寨高棉族的8%、土家族的20%、朝鲜族有12%O1单倍群\nO2——泰柬支：柬埔寨高棉族90%、泰国65%、壮族的35.95%，日本族31.7%，朝鲜族32%，满族11%都有O2单倍群\nO3——华夏支：是汉藏缅甸族父系主体黄种单倍群，其他民族占独龙族100%、越南北部50%、朝鲜族40%、满族38%、日本人20.1%、蒙古族20.5%、鄂伦春族 22%、吉尔吉斯族24%、回族17%，维吾尔族14%都含有O3\n\n十三：P中亚部落——Q印第安人、R印欧人种\n\nP——中亚部落：该单倍群类型主要分布在中亚和阿尔泰地区，目前已不多见。\nQ——北亚-美洲单倍群：占印第安人90%、部分西伯利亚土著民族66%、爱斯基摩人47%、印第安人因混血棕种母系而和东亚人有较相似外貌，而爱基斯摩人父系基本是N+Q结合种。\n\n十四：R印欧人种——R1a印欧东支、R1b印欧西支\n\nR1a——印欧东支、又被称为雅利安人单倍群：占波兰56%、阿尔泰族的50%、俄罗斯47%、挪威族的30%、冰岛族的22%、德意志族的20%、芬兰人的20%、吉尔吉斯族的40%、喀山鞑靼的18%、维吾尔族的20%、乌孜别克族的18%、印度讲印欧语的40%、波斯人的18%、土耳其族的8%。\nR1b——印欧西支，其基因又被称为西欧基因：占苏格兰族的75%、西班牙族的65%、德意志族的48%、意大利族的44%、冰岛族的40%、挪威族的25%、维吾尔族的17%、土耳其族的 14%、回族的12%。\n\n\n父系单倍群和色系人种对应规律\nA型、B型、E型主要对黑种人。\nC型、D型主要对黄种人、棕种人。\nF型、G型、H型、I型、J型、R型主要对白种人。\nK型、L型、M型棕、白、黄都有。\nNO型、Q型主要对黄种人。\n\n\n\n\n敲黑板的说明\n\n单倍群的字母并不是严格按照支系的远近关系划分的。比如由于早期发现的SNP较少，认为C、D、E、F是并列的四个支系，后来发现C和F具有更近的共同祖先，D和E具有更近的共同祖先。L、M、N、O、P、Q、R、S、T也是类似的情况。即字母顺序并不能完全反映分化次序和远近关系。\n研究者还发现非洲之外人群中的男性都属于单倍群CT，共享M168等SNP突变，可以追溯到7万年前左右的一个共同男性祖先。这个祖先的两个男性后代分别成为了单倍群CF与单倍DE的祖先\n通过Y染色体的分化时间表明，中东人种（J、G单倍群）虽然过去被划分为白人，但是他们和欧洲白人®分离的时间比欧洲白人®和黄种人(NO)分离的时间还早，所以从主体父系基因角度中东白人和欧洲白人关系反而会更远些。\n不过因地理上接近，欧洲白人和中东白人有更多的机会进行混血，所以他们也逐渐形成某些相同体态特征，而同样地理上接近欧洲白人的芬兰黄种人N和欧洲白人R混血后，就基本分不出差别来，芬兰的父系单倍群有60%属于黄种人，但是他们不但跟周边国家的白种人相貌相似，其皮肤白得程度让大部分欧洲人都自叹不如，更难以想象的是一个有如此多黄种人血统的国家，居然是世界上金发碧眼比率最高的国家，所以无论是从血缘角度，还是从生理特征角度，纯种的欧洲白人和纯种黄种人亲缘关系要比和纯种中东白人更接近。\n和我们是亲兄弟的芬兰人，长得像白人，而和我们只是表兄弟，和欧洲白人才是亲兄弟的印第安人却长得像黄种人，由此可以看出过去只依外形划分的人种是多么片面不科学，中东白人和欧洲白人、亚洲黄人和美洲黄人、南亚棕人和澳洲棕人这些血缘较远的人类，过去被同归一类，认为是同种起源。\n可以说四大人种的划分方法和过去“人类多地区进化说”对应，“人类多地区进化说”就是主张棕黑黄白四大人种分别从澳洲、非洲、东亚、欧洲四个地区的当地猿人进化而来，然后这四大人种再混血形成世界各民族的样貌，其中黄种基因占绝对优势中国人，竟然被认为是蒙古人种（蒙古人被认为是纯种黄种人）和其他人种混血的产物，如今从Y染色体单倍群分化时间看来这种观点已经不适用了。\n各人种登场\n所有人类的Y染色体单倍体类型都能在非洲找到(M168\\YAP\\M130)类型，这说明人类都起源于非洲，不过(M168\\YAP\\M130)虽然在非洲生活，他皮肤可能也是黑的，但是他不是我们所说黑人。现代黑人是在后期人类分化中形成的，他们单倍群类型是E，希特勒就是E的后代，而除黑人以外大部分人种，如我们中国人单倍群类型都不是E\n\n中国人单倍型是CF集团下F中东部落的进一步变异细分，是棕种人集团的后代，黑种人是DE集团\n\nA科伊桑人（南部非洲棕种人）\n被认为现存最古老的人种，可能是人类最早的样子，身材矮小，平均身高145~150厘米，和其它人种最大的不同在于他们的女人又超级巨大的臀部。过去一般把科伊桑人归为黑色人种，但他们肤色呈黄褐色，面部扁平多皱，眼睛细小，体貌与黑人有明显差别反更像是黄种人，且他们都是单眼皮。\n\n\n有一种说法认为单眼皮是黄种人在蒙古沙漠为防止风沙从双眼皮进化而来的（白人黑人都是双眼皮），但事实并非如此，单眼皮是人类最古老人种的特征，双眼皮反而是后来才出现的。\n从语系和外貌上看，科伊桑人又分为科伊科伊人和桑人两支，科伊科伊人又名霍屯督人（意为“笨嘴笨舌者”），桑人又名布须曼人（英语意即丛林人），其中分布于西南非的布须曼人在外貌上比霍屯督人有更多热带特征：如卷发（但卷曲形状和黑人不同），较宽的鼻子和较大且较厚的嘴唇。\n过去科伊桑人广泛分布于撒哈拉以南的非洲，后来由于黑人的屠杀、强奸和驱逐，目前现存不足20万，主要分布在非洲南部从纳米比亚到莫桑比克再到南非的一条狭长且辽阔的沙漠地区。直到今日纯种的科伊桑人大部分依然过着原始的采集、狩猎生活，而赤道南部黑人身上大多混有他们的基因，比如南非前总统曼德拉就是黑人和科伊桑人的混血后代。\nB尼格利陀人（非洲小黑人）\n第二支分化出去的基因是一支更加矮小的尼格利罗人，在希腊语中意思为侏儒，成年平均身高只有130~140厘米。\n尼格利罗人外貌特征是：黑皮肤、深眼窝、塌鼻梁、高颧骨、头大腿短、长得精瘦、人人都腆着大肚子，肚脐眼凸起鸡蛋大小的肉疙瘩。他们没有青春期，8岁即发育成熟，可以结婚生子。他们外貌和我们常见非洲黑人明显不同，所以也深受黑人歧视，在刚果共和国俾格米人和笨蛋就是同义词。\n目前这群非洲小黑人主要生活在非洲中西部的原始森林中，他们称森林为“万能的父母”，自己是“森林的儿子”，过着最原始的狩猎采集生活，他们以白蚁为美食，用芭蕉叶、棕榈叶当衣料和盖房子，从生产力看，他们甚至还不知道怎样取得火种，因此保存火种就成了妇女日常的重要工作。\n\n\n亚非黑人种DE\n祖先分化出两支小矮人后，约5万年前进一步分化出CF集团和亚非黑人种DE，亚非黑人种又叫做尼格罗—尼格利陀人种，是现在非洲尼格罗人种（黑人）和亚洲尼格利陀人种（矮黑人）的共同祖先。\n亚非黑人是第一批走出非洲的现代人，一般认为他们其中一支最早在东南非沿海居住，并开始沿着印度洋海岸向东方扩散开来，沿海地区一路都有稳定的高蛋白海洋食物来源，保证他们可以一直沿着海岸快速移动。 这支黑人从东非沿海—阿拉伯半岛—伊朗沿海一线前进抵达印度、东南亚的沿海，成为亚洲最早的主人。\n进入亚洲后这群黑人和留在非洲黑人同胞由于长期隔离，基因发生分化，分别形成D基因亚洲矮黑人（尼格利陀）和E基因非洲黑人（尼格罗）两种不同的类型。\nE-尼格罗人\nE类黑人就是我们最常见的高大强壮黑人，在体型上**分为赤道北部纯黑肤色的苏丹黑人 &amp; 赤道南部浅黑肤色的班图黑人两大亚种**（班图黑人大量进入中国，广州就达到20w以上，即将成为中国第57个民族）\n\n真正非洲纯种黑人很多都是单眼皮，如西非黑人单眼皮几率接近100%，比亚洲单眼皮比例最高（93%）的蒙古人还高，中非黑人单眼皮也达到92%，美国黑人明星双眼皮多，因其父系远祖26.5%是白人，白人都是双眼皮，而双眼皮是显性基因\n\nD-尼格利陀人-亚洲矮黑人\nD基因的亚洲矮黑人成年男性只有1.55-1.6米，矮黑人除又矮又黑外，还有小眼睛、深眼窝、厚嘴唇、粗颧骨、短方脸、黑眼珠、体毛发达、头发黑色呈波状发等特征，不过也有人认为他们最初肤色可能并不太黑，应该改叫古亚洲人更合适。\n独霸亚洲让矮黑人得到快速繁衍发展，并迅速扩张开来，他们从印度进入东南亚，向西北进入青藏高原，如今矮黑人基因在藏族中比例非常高，达50%以上，彝族矮黑人血统高达近40%的，在苗瑶人群也有较高的比率。\n现代矮黑人的纯种直系后代主要包括印度安达曼群岛和印尼苏门答腊岛的土著，其中印度安达曼群岛土著矮黑人父系血统比率达100%，在苏门答腊岛土著达91%。\n此外在东南亚菲律宾、马来半岛、泰国、缅甸也有矮黑人零星分布过着半原始半游牧的生活，我们从印度和东南亚人黝黑的皮肤也可发现他们身上定混有不少矮黑人的血统。在中国除西藏外，生活在西南地区许多少数民族也有不少矮黑人的血统，如上已经提及。\n\n印度安达曼群岛土著\n\n\nD2-适应寒冷气候的矮黑人\n矮黑人D基因下有一最特别分支D2基因，从东南亚沿海北上中国，并一路扩张至朝鲜，日本。这支矮黑人甚至一度被认为是白人，他们就是日本现在唯一的少数民族–阿依努人，又叫虾夷人，因适应高纬度寒冷气候，进化出较浅肤色\n\n\n高眉深目外貌和最旺盛的体毛，长相甚至类似白人明显不同于周边的黄种人，是日本最早的原住民，创造了一万年前日本最早的新石器时代–绳纹时代，直到公元前三世纪才被外来黄种民族弥生人征服取代，他们中一部分北逃到本州岛北部、北海道和库页岛等地，而另一部分则和外来的弥生人混血融合，成为今天近37%的日本人的祖先。古代日本人身材矮小被称为小日本也和其矮黑人血统有很大关系。如今阿伊努人（90%）、冲绳人(55%)、日本(34.7%)、朝鲜(7%)都有D2基因\n\n\n过去人种学将非洲尼格利罗小黑人、尼格罗黑人、科伊桑人共同被划分为黑色人种，而将亚洲矮黑人划为棕色人种。同时因为亚洲矮黑人和非洲小黑人外形相似，连其学名尼格利罗人也相同，尼格利陀人也都源自西班牙文小黑人之意，所以两者都被统称为俾格米人。\n\n现在从基因分化顺序可以看出亚洲矮黑人无论是和非洲小黑人的血缘关系还是和澳洲人种血缘关系都不及和非洲尼格罗黑人(现在的E型高大黑人)来得亲，原属棕种的亚洲矮黑人应划为黑色人种更合适。\n棕色人种 CF集团–C棕色人种+F中东部落\n矮黑人独霸亚洲没多久，距今5万年前单倍群CF集团中的一支也沿着矮黑人的老路进入亚洲，离开非洲时，还是原始的CF型，到达印度时，亚洲CF人群因长期与非洲CF人群隔绝，演化成独立的单倍群为C棕色人种类型，\n\n\n这群C棕色人种和D矮黑人是最早抵达亚洲的现代人，统称为“老亚洲人”\n\n\n留在非洲的CF人群则继续演化出F类型，他们早期活动在中东地带，所以又叫中东部落。\n\n\n在4万—5万年前，棕种人从印度南部向东迁移，那时地球海平面很低，东南亚的马来群岛与中南半岛连成一片，澳大利亚以及美拉尼西亚的许多岛屿也连在一起。所以棕种人并不需要航海技术就可以扩散到整个太平洋诸岛。在4万年前，棕色人种已经进入澳大利亚，曾经澳大利亚的霸主，历史上最大的蜥蜴——长达6米的古巨蜥，就是在这一时期被棕种人灭绝的，成为人类进入澳洲发展的牺牲品。\n\n如今东南亚印尼东部27.3%的马来人、17%的婆罗洲土著都有棕种人单倍群，印度个别达罗毗图语系民族棕种人血统比例达到20%，而较纯种棕种人的直系后代主要分布在澳大利亚、新西兰以及南太平洋的岛屿上，占到澳大利亚土著70%、波利尼西亚人63.3%以上父系血统比率。\n\n在白人发现新大陆前，棕种人独霸澳大利亚，这也是棕色人种别称澳洲人种的原因。由于与世隔绝，他们文化仍长期停滞于旧石器时代。\n\nC3单倍群-通古斯-蒙古支\n在4万年前左右，一支棕色人种从东南亚北上东亚沿海，演化出单倍群C3人种，这是单倍群C棕种人下影响最大支系，C3支又可称为通古斯—蒙古支，顾名思义，他们是通古斯民族和蒙古族的主要单倍群类型。\n棕种人出非洲进东亚的路线，都是沿矮黑人路线走来。他们和先到的矮黑人发出冲突，事实证明，棕种人更加英勇善战，矮黑人犹如丧家之犬，被一路驱逐追杀，棕种人所到之地，矮黑人都不复存在，大部分矮黑人都被驱逐至边缘的日本、琉球列岛和中国西南的山地、高寒的青藏地区以及东南亚的密林里。C3棕种人成为东亚的新霸主，并扩张至北亚和中亚，还继续沿西伯利亚东海岸北上越过白令海峡直至美洲地区，成为美洲最早的居民，在今天北美洲阿拉斯加地区印第安人也有比例高达30%的C3单倍群。\n\n如今亚洲满族的25%、朝鲜族的16%、蒙古族的58%、布拉特蒙古人在60%、哈萨克族的45%、吉尔吉斯人60%、回族的23%、阿尔泰族的23%、乌孜别克族的17%都含有C3单倍群，尤其是西伯利亚南部和东北亚鄂温克族、鄂伦春族等通古斯民族C3单倍群更高达60%以上。在中国发现山顶洞人化石也被认为是棕色人种。\n这些人群后来多少都受来自中国黄种人单倍群混血（尤其是内蒙古人）故形成和中国人较相似的外貌，过去一般都将C3单倍群为主人群划分为黄种人，现在看来叫他们棕黄人种也许更合适点。\n\nC单倍群棕种人体貌总体特征是单眼皮、黑眼珠、小眼睛、宽平脸、粗颧骨、扁鼻梁、塌鼻头、黑卷发、身材矮小。\n而C3单倍群棕种人因为所处维度较高，所以进化出较浅肤色，此外还有浅眼窝，眉骨不明显、身体柔韧性好等特征，现代亚洲黄种人因大多混血棕种人，所以也大量保留了这些特点，在混血较多的满族、朝鲜族身上更加明显。\n目前较纯种C3棕种人是俄罗斯的卡尔梅克蒙古人，他们是古代蒙古人西支，因为远离东亚黄种人基地中国，所以基本没有和中国黄种人混血，其蒙古C3单倍群高达70%，保留了较原始蒙古人的样貌， 和成吉思汗长相也接近。蒙古人不光脸大，整个头都大，这是C单倍群基因下的主体特征\n\n棕种人迁徙路线图\n\n\n\n物种竞争不仅来自异种的竞争，也来自同种，好比是同行业，同类产品的竞争，因为古人类生存方式相同，竞争也必然激烈，新物种的出现必然导致旧物种受到冲击，好比手机更新换代一样。一个物种生存如何，不在于更聪明或更强大，在于是否适应变换环境，就像恐龙，猛犸象都绝了，古代人类密度小，是由于采集狩猎原始生产方式决定的，在生产力提高之前多大面积只能养活多少人口有上限，所以不能同时容纳另一种人类生存。现代人进入除南极以外的世界各地，只要现代人进入的地方，其它古人类就无立足之地。\n\nF中东部落\n\nF中东部落——G高加索集团、H印度蒙达集团和IJK集团\n\n棕种人和矮黑人一样，也没能笑到最后，像矮黑人被棕种人驱逐一样，棕种人也重蹈了矮黑人的命运。大约4万年前，他们在非洲的F单倍群也走出非洲，这是人类第三次走出非洲，也是影响最大的一次。F单倍群是现代人中数量占压倒性的类型，是今日中东、欧洲、亚洲大部分民族的祖先，大概全世界80%以上的人都是这个变异点的后代。\n\n科学家推测F单倍群集团有大眼睛、双眼皮、粗眉骨、颧骨明显、椭圆脸、棕皮肤、棕色波浪发、棕眼珠等外貌特征。\n\n中东部落F进入亚洲的路线和老亚洲人C、D不同，他们没有走海岸线，而是走陆路进入中东，途径高加索山脉，南下进入印度直至斯里兰卡岛，这一路都有人定居下来，由于地理分割形成以下几大单倍群集团：\n斯里兰卡混血F单倍群\n进入斯里兰卡F人群和本地棕种人混血，形成今天斯里兰卡东南部低洼地带的维达人，他们身上保留这较古老原始F单倍群。今天维达人依然过着原始社会的生活，男人们只在腰间悬一根腰带，女人们只用布片盖住肚脐至膝盖的区域，他们现存数量比大熊猫还要稀少，据统计目前他们只剩下800人左右。\n\nH单倍群\n留在印度大陆F单倍群体变异为H单倍群体，他们也和当地棕种人大量混血，目前H单倍群占印度人总体比率不超过20%，纯种H单倍群民族已经找不到了，所以对于H单倍群最初是什么样子，无法判断。H单倍群最高频种族是印度蒙达人，过去他们被划为棕种人，是印度第三大种群，人口多达900万。蒙达人曾经广泛分布印度各地，但由于受到后来的达罗毗荼人和雅利安人排挤，现居住在印度中部和东部深山密林之中，该地区山脉连绵，丛林密集，土地贫瘠，远离印度文明中心。\n\nG单倍群\n留在高加索山脉F单倍群演化出G单倍群，如今G单倍群体主要分布在高加索山脉地区，所以又叫高加索集团，和H单倍群一样，他们由于和后来白人大量混血，纯种G单倍群同样也找不到了，含G单倍群比例较高的高加索山脉的亚美尼亚民族，所占比率也只达到20%，并不能构成体内的主体基因。不过含G单倍群较多的高加索人外貌还是明显和其它地区不同，他们体毛更加浓密、鼻梁更高、鹰钩鼻的特征也更加明显。这些很可能是G单倍群体的原始外貌特征。\n\nIJK集团\n留在中东西部沿海的F单倍群 后来成为黄白人种的祖先，我们称其为IJK集团，该集团人群分出IJ、K两支。看下方分解。\nIJ集团+K欧亚部落\n大约4万到3.5万年前，IJK集团的一支向东进入伊朗阿富汗高原并在此演化出K单倍群集团，他们后代遍布欧亚，所以我们暂且称他们为欧亚部落；而留在原地(中东西部沿海)的IJK集团则演变成IJ集团。\nJ单倍群体–地中海基因\nIJ集团后来分为两支，一支进入地中海沿岸演化出J单倍群体，他们成为整个西亚和北非及地中海沿岸地区主要的单倍群类型，是地中海人种最主要的父系基因来源，所以又被称为地中海基因。\n\n过去地中海人种被划为白种人两大亚种之一，对比白种人另一大亚种“北欧白人”的显白肤色，他们肤色暗白，有些甚至比黄种人还黑，所以又叫做暗白人种，此外他们身材也较北欧白人矮小，高鼻深目特征更加明显，并有大胡子、鹰钩鼻等特征。他们也不是金发碧眼，其头发和眼珠都呈棕褐色\n\n\n因从地理位置上看，地中海人种离黑人较近，所以过去认为他们样貌是北欧白人和黑人混血导致。不过现在从DNA检测上否定了这样的观点，他们样貌特征应为J单倍群人种主体特征。\n\n目前，中东阿拉伯族、犹太人的48%、土耳其族的25%、意大利族的20%、埃塞俄比亚族的15%、伊朗族的12%都含有J单倍群。\n含J单倍群较多的人种被称为典型地中海人种，集中在地中海沿岸地区。而原本高加索山地G单倍群后来也被外来J单倍群大量混血所以也被划为地中海人种，不过因为体内G单倍群基因的缘故和纯种J单倍群还有较大差别，所以一般又将地中海人种分为两大类\n\n\nJ单倍群为主体的典型地中海亚人种\n\n\n含有一定G单倍群的高加索亚人种\n\n\n地中海高加索亚人种\n\n\n\n\nI克罗马农人种\nIJ集团另一支进入伊朗高原和小亚细亚演化出I单倍群，如今伊朗族的18%、土耳其族的15%、亚美尼亚的8%人群的父系染色体标示都为I。不过含有I单倍群最多的地方不是在他们老家西亚，而是在欧洲。约3万5千多年前，I单倍群体开始分成两支从高加索和小亚细亚两地北上进入尼安德特人的大本营欧洲，他们是最早进入欧洲的现代人，也就是考古发现欧洲最早的现代智人——克罗马农人。\n\n克罗马农人因最早发现于法国的克罗马农山洞而得名，他们是冰河世纪结束后，全新世到来前这阶段最早被发现的完整人类化石。全新世也就是我们目前所处最年轻的地质年代，它开始于距今1.1万年前后，最近一次亚冰期结束、以气候转暖为标志，因此又称为冰后期。\n\n从欧洲克罗马农人的遗骨可以看出I单倍群的原始特征，这群人身材高大魁梧，大多男性平均身高达1.82米，体格强壮，以狩猎为主要食物来源，连曾经欧洲霸主尼安德特人被他们成群猎杀捕食，到3万年前这批人已经到达欧洲最西端的大西洋边，并彻底导致尼安德特人的灭绝。\n\nI单倍群人种是上古欧洲分布最广的种族，不过也不能将他们完全就等于欧洲克罗马农人，因为欧洲克罗马农人还包括在1.1万年全新世到来之前，进入欧洲所有现代人种。继I单倍群进入欧洲后，稍晚一点进入欧洲的有地中海J单倍群体，他们主要分布在南欧希腊和意大利半岛，如今南欧地区人们多留有他们的单倍群基因。\n在欧洲的科罗马农人\n到目前为止，智人已经遍布除南极以外的世界各大洲，在已发现各地区智人遗址中，以欧洲地区最多、最为丰富，这可能是因为欧洲比较湿润，不像中东和非洲那么干旱，有较丰富的采集和狩猎资源，当然这也和欧洲考古工作更早、技术更发达有关。目前在欧洲发现著名现代智人遗址包括：\n\n\n距今3.4万～2.9万年的奥瑞纳文化，遗址出土人类最早乐器——骨笛，并出现人类最早的艺术作品——洞穴壁画、岩画和陶制雕像等。\n\n\n距今2.1万～1.8万年的梭鲁特文化，以高超的压制石器技术著称，达到了旧石器时代石器制作技术的顶峰，骨器制作的手工艺也非常突出，大量骨制的鱼叉、矛头、针等被发现。\n\n\n距今1.7万～1.15 万年的马格德林文化，这时期原始艺术作品被誉为是美术史上最早的惊世的杰作，其中最著名的当属法国拉斯科洞窟壁画（被誉为“史前卢浮宫”）和西班牙的阿尔塔米拉洞窟壁画（被誉为“史前西斯廷教堂”）。\n\n法国拉斯科洞窟壁画距今已有15000年左右，它由一条长长的、宽狭不等的通道组成，其中有一个外形不规则的圆厅最为壮观，洞顶画有数十头大型动物形象，包括野马、野牛、鹿等，图像长度大多在2米到3米，最长的约5米以上，被誉为“史前卢浮宫”。\n\n\n\n\n雕塑艺术成就\n小型雕塑艺术上克罗马农人同样取得巨大的成就，雕像以小型动物雕刻为主，也有一些圆雕和浮雕的女裸体雕像，女裸体雕像最具有代表性的就是奥地利出土的“原始的维纳斯”，雕像极大夸张突出女神的乳房、臀部、孕肚等女性特征形象，而脸部和手脚几乎被忽略，是这时期女裸体雕像的代表特征，一般认为这些雕像和的巫术有关，体现出晚期克罗马农人对女性和生殖崇拜思想。\n\n原始的维纳斯\n\n\n创造这些灿烂的上古石器文化的是以I单倍群为主体的克罗马农人，可以说上古欧洲克罗马农人遗址是已发现旧石器时代晚期文化最杰出的代表，所以上世纪欧洲的主流学者一直声称现代欧洲人就是由克罗马农人演化而来的；\n巴斯克人是克罗马农人直接后裔？\n\n后来随着语言学的研究，欧洲主流说法又变成：就像克罗马农人淘汰尼安德特人一样，称霸欧洲的克罗马农人也被后来进入欧洲的印欧人所淘汰，他们中男性大都遭到杀害，女性则成为了新征服者的配偶，现居住在西班牙比利牛斯山脉不讲印欧语的巴斯克人(巴斯克人是西班牙足球重要力量)是他们仅存的直系后裔。 但Y染色体检测发现这种说法并不正确。\n\n巴斯克人语法复杂异常，外族人绝难掌握，传说魔鬼迁居巴斯克人居住区，可是住了7年之后又不得不搬走了，因为他无法与巴斯克人沟通！7年里，魔鬼只学会了两个巴斯克语单词：“是”和“不是”。 巴斯克因此被认为是“上帝的语言”，因为只有上帝才能听得懂。\n巴斯克人在欧洲历史可以追溯到旧石器时代，目前已经发现了上万年前的巴斯克人骨骸，在全世界各个民族中，巴斯克人可谓真正意义上的“钉子户”，他们上万年蜗居在西班牙和法国交界的比利牛斯山脉中，不愿与外界沟通，目前有70多万巴斯克人居住在西班牙，另有约12万居住在法国，他们语言极其独特。是目前西欧惟一不属于印欧语系的语言，而且也不属于世界上任何语系，语法复杂异常，外族人难以掌握，很多学者认为巴斯克语就是上古欧洲的克罗马农人的语言，并因此断定印欧人在进入欧洲后，从东欧开始自东而西横扫I单倍群的克罗马农人，只剩下少数躲进了土地贫瘠的比利牛斯山脉成为巴斯克人。\n巴斯克人身上基本没有最早的克罗马农人的I单倍群类型，他们的单倍群类型基本都是印欧人西支R1b，其比率甚至高达到90%以上，可以算得上是最纯种的印欧R1b单倍群人群，但究竟是什么原因，导致了同为R单倍群巴斯克人语言和周边印欧民族语言如此不同，巴斯克人为何不讲R单倍群体的语言印欧语，而讲一种不属于世界任何语系的语言。目前对此主要有以下两种猜测。\n第一种猜测认为：巴斯克语就是最早克罗马农人I单倍群集团的语言，这种看法认为印欧人西支R1b是分批进入欧洲的，而巴斯克人就是最早进入欧洲的一支，由于他们进入欧洲时人口很少，所以被当地土著克罗马农人同化，不再说印欧语。后来印欧人主体进入欧洲，征服了克罗马农人，但巴斯克人因在偏僻的山区没被印欧人同化，导致他们和印欧人语言的不同。\n第二种猜测认为：巴斯克语是印欧人西支R1b最早的语言，而印欧语最早只是印欧人东支R1a的语言，R1a才是真正印欧人，西支印欧人R1b其实就是被印欧化的巴斯克人。\n第一种可能性要大得多，因为少数巴斯克人被多数克罗马农人同化，要比多数R1b被少数R1a同化要容易得多。如今除巴斯克人，英国和爱尔兰的凯尔特人也是R1b占绝对优势，红发绿眼是凯尔特人常见特征，在R1b占优势的西欧地区也是红发高发区，所以红发绿眼很可能R1b单倍群特有基因特征，金发对比黑发是隐性基因，而红发对比金发又是隐性基因，作为隐性基因中的隐性基因导致现实中红发绿眼如同大熊猫一样的稀少\n克罗马农人被吸收\nI单倍群克罗马农人并没有灭绝，目前很多欧洲人都属于克罗马农人I单倍群，不过现在完全纯种I单倍群克罗马农人已经找不到了，I单倍群在欧洲比率不是很高，一般不超过20%，但是在北欧、巴尔干半岛地区所占比率较高，达40%左右，其中巴尔干半岛地区克罗地亚人I单倍群高达50%以上，尤其是波黑共和国的克罗地亚人中I的比率更是高达73.3%，算得上是I单倍群克罗马农人最直系的后代。其它如冰岛的37%、苏格兰的20%、挪威族的30%、德意志族的25%、西班牙族的12%、意大利族的15%、俄罗斯族的18%都为克罗马农人I单倍群类型。可以说大部分克罗马农人是被欧洲人所同化，改用印欧语，而且由于和欧洲人长期混血，已经基本变成白人的样貌。\n波黑共和国的克罗地亚人中I的比率更是高达73.3%，算得上是I单倍群克罗马农人最直系的后代，从出土遗骸上看，克罗马农人身材高大臃肿，他们一些后代多少继承这个特征。（此处欠一张克罗地亚大只妹的picture，原有一张被鉴黄服务给禁止访问了，大家搜克罗地亚女总统科琳达·格拉巴尔-基塔罗维奇也能管中窥豹一番）\n欧洲人也有不少黑人基因\n非洲黑人单倍群E进入欧洲时间似乎比J更早，他们主要集中在南欧、意大利南部、西班牙、希腊这些地方，从如今许多欧洲人中多少都带一点黑人单倍群类型可以看出这点。二战时期，黑人和犹太人一样受到希特勒迫害，而如今从希特勒身上单倍群检查发现他的父系单倍群标示为E，也就是说希特勒最早的远祖父就是黑人。因为一直和白人女子通婚，而成为现在这样貌。\n\n现代人在走出非洲时曾经和尼安德特人发生过混血，而现代人既然起源于非洲，在形成之初也可能和非洲直立人发生混血，从基因角度上讲，你也可以认为这是古人类是“融入”到新人类里，不过这其中比率相当稀少，就物种角度来说直立人和尼安德特人这两个物种确实是灭绝了。就像我们说华南虎灭绝，不代表他们基因不在其他老虎身上存在。\n可以肯定的是现代人并没有和东亚直立人混血，因为东亚的直立猿人（元谋人）在大约170万年前就出现了，而现代人走出非洲的时间最早也在15万年到8万年前，这中间分化时间非常长，足够产生“生殖隔离”。到东亚时，现代人直立人外貌差别相当大了，语言和血型也不同，就猿人那猩猩一样长相，就算现代人性欲再难以满足，能想到和猿人发生性关系，也只有极少数超重口味的，而且就算能现代人真和东亚直立猿人能杂交有后代，也基本很难生存下来。比如同样狮子，科学家让印度狮和非洲狮杂交的后代连行走都很困难。\n\n欧洲人长相差别\n现代欧洲人主体由（东）斯拉夫人，（北）日耳曼人，（南）拉丁人，（西）凯尔特人，长相差别较大。身材高大、高鼻深目、皮肤白皙的欧洲人印象主要来自于日耳曼人，金发深蓝眼也是其常见的特征。皮肤虽白，但脸上雀斑也多。\n拉丁人主要在法国，意大利，两牙，罗马尼亚等国，拉丁人皮肤黑多了，一般都是黑头发黑眼珠，个头也不高，跟亚洲的阿拉伯人有些像。斯拉夫人身高上看和日耳曼人相似，因为受过蒙古人统治，有些皮肤呈黄褐色，脸庞也具有黄种人特征。\n凯尔特人被挤压主要退守英伦三道，主体在爱尔兰，最显著的特点是眼睛是天蓝色+红发。\n芬兰人比较特别，祖先是黄种人迁移到了北欧，下面的N单倍群黄种人有介绍，和周围的日耳曼和斯拉夫人混血，形成现在的芬兰人，既有北欧人双眼皮大眼睛，皮肤白的特点，又有东方柔和的面容轮廓，可能比较讨好中国人的审美观。\nK欧亚部落\n在伊朗高原演化出的K单倍群是继F单倍群后的又一个伟大的演化，K单倍群是F单倍群下的最大分支，全世界基本除西亚、非洲以外，大部分都是K单倍群的后裔，如我们汉族中，96%的人都是K类型下的分支。\nK单倍群在伊朗高原繁衍一段时间后，分化出LT集团和MNOPS集团两支，LT集团先行一步离开伊朗高原，兵分两路，一支向东进入印度，另一支向西进入非洲。\nLT集团——L达罗毗荼集团和T埃塞俄比亚集团\n印度L单倍群\n进入印度K单倍群演化出印度L单倍群，事实证明，K单倍群分支L就是比较强悍，虽然是后来者，但是L单倍群还是成为前几批进入印度的中东部落后裔（F、H、J单倍群）的领袖，他们一起征服了当地最早的土著矮黑人和棕种人，并且抢了他们的女人作配偶，L、F、H、J单倍群与当地矮棕黑人种母系不断混血，最后形成了以达罗毗荼人为代表的南亚人种，其中L单倍群占主导地位。\n达罗毗荼人又叫德拉维达人，目前主要分布在印度南部、斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦，占印度全部人口的21.6%，他们也我们常见的印度黑人，过去一般把他们划为棕色人种，但是他们占主导地位单倍群还是F中东部落下属类型（F、L、H、J），应该独立列为一个人种。\n\n\n过去达罗毗荼人皮肤应该比现在白，但是后来由于白种雅利安人南下，许多白种人特征较多的达罗毗荼人都被雅利安人同化了，直到今天，在巴基斯坦境内还生活着属于白色人种的达罗毗荼人分支——布拉灰人\n\n\n\n达罗毗荼人种父系单倍群比率：\n\nL——印度L单倍群占达罗毗荼人种30%、印欧语系的印度人26%\nF——斯里兰卡维达F单倍群占达罗毗荼人诸民族的13%\nH——印度蒙达H单倍群占达罗毗荼人种18%\nJ——地中海J单倍群占达罗毗图诸民族的12%\nC、D——矮黑人和棕种人大多成为达罗毗荼人母系祖先，在达罗毗荼人父系中含量较少，但在个别达罗毗荼语系民族中比例达到20%。\n\nT埃塞俄比亚集团\n进入非洲的K单倍群演化出埃塞俄比亚T单倍群，目前T单倍群体主要分布在埃及和东非埃塞俄比亚。从外貌上看，就会发现埃塞俄比亚黑人和其它地区黑人差别很大，一般将他们单独划为高原黑人种。从外貌上看他们应该属于最俊美的黑人了，双眼皮、大眼睛、五官立体感强，这和他们体内含有T单倍群基因，并大量混血阿拉伯人有关。目前这一种族主要分布于东非埃塞俄比亚高原及附近索马里等地区，人口约几千万，是东非黑人的主体。\n\nMNOPS集团——S巴布亚新几内亚高地人、M伊里安查亚新几内亚人、ON黄色人种、P中亚部落\nLT集团从K欧亚部落分离出后，留在伊朗高原印欧人K单倍群在3.5万年分化&gt;\n一支向北进入中亚里海附近，形成P单倍群的中亚部落;\n一支后来演化成黄种人祖先NO。\n另有两支S、M沿着棕色人种的路线，从马来半岛出发，分批进入苏门答腊岛和婆罗洲，挺近大洋洲，并一度大举入侵澳大利亚，但最终不敌澳洲棕种土著C而被融合。\nSM\nS、M虽然没能成功征服澳洲，不过他们却成功进入大洋洲最大的岛屿、世界第二大岛新几内亚岛。新几内亚岛以东经141°为界线，东西两端分为巴布亚新几内亚国和印度尼西亚伊里安查亚省，而S和M则分别形成巴布亚新几内亚国和印尼伊里安查亚省的土著居民。\n\n如今S单倍群后代广泛分布在大洋州和马来群岛：巴布亚新几内亚的59%，苏门答腊岛的15%、婆罗洲的16%、伊里安查亚新几内亚5%都为S单倍群。\n而M单倍群后代则主要居中在新几内亚岛，如今伊里安查亚新几内亚的70%、巴布亚新几内亚的34%都为M单倍群。\n\n新几内亚岛上的S、M单倍群体由于长期混血棕种人，现已经具备有明显棕种人特征，过去也将他们划为棕色人种，但是如果要和C单倍群棕色人种区别还是很明显。\n\n父系单倍群为S、M的人群脸更狭长、鼻子更高、有鹰钩鼻、皮肤相对较白，这都和周边棕色人种明显不同。对比如下两图，是不是头发是否卷也是一种特征？\n\n\nS、M后代的新几内亚人\n\n\n\nC单倍群棕色人种\n\n\n黄色人种\n黄种人祖先NO从伊朗高原向东南进入印度北部、并通过东南亚进入中国，最后成为东亚、东南亚最后的霸主。\n\n为什么古人类全都喜欢绕道印度、东南亚进入中国，而不直接近道走直线经西亚过新疆直到中原呢？这是因为中原地区和西亚之间隔着大面积沙漠戈壁和草原，原始人只靠打猎和采集野果，是很难通过此地的。只有等到发明畜牧业，尤其是成功驯化马和骆驼后此路才变得畅通。所以大规模的原始部落进入中国途径印度、东南亚是必然的\n\nNO黄种人\n\nN北亚黄种人人和O东亚与东南亚黄种人\n\nNO黄种人在东南亚分化为南北两支，南支演化出O单倍群体，并成为后来东亚与东南亚黄种人的主体类型。而北支先行一步进入东亚，目前达斡尔族2.6%、鄂温克族3.82%、赫哲族2.2%、回族2.9%，华北汉族2.3%，华南汉族2.5%，越南人3.1%，外蒙古人0.7%、布依族5.7%、日本人2.1%、韩国人2.3%、彝族人2.3%都为NO单倍群类型。\nN单倍群黄种人\n向北发展的NO最终演化出N单倍群黄种人，他们大致在距今2~1.5万前从东亚出发，进入叶尼塞河和阿尔泰山区域，并分化为东西两支。\n一支向西北迁移至乌拉尔山两侧到北冰洋沿岸形成了芬兰-乌拉尔语系的主体民族，在历史上入侵欧洲游牧民族多属于这支黄种N单倍群集团（这和入侵中国地区游牧集团主要是棕种C单倍群集团不同）\n\n从今天N单倍群在东欧和北欧广泛存在就可看出来，目前芬兰人65%、爱沙尼亚55%，立陶宛、拉托维亚等人群中50%，俄罗斯北部35%，中部20%，南部10%，挪威和瑞典人的5-10%都为N单倍群类型。这些在欧洲的N单倍群黄种人因为长期和白人混血，样貌已经和白人相差不大\n\n而另一支N单倍群则迁移到西伯利亚北部和东部地区，在如今西伯利亚北部地区，N单倍群占绝对的优势，如雅库特人N3占92.2%，北部埃文人中，N3占90.9%。而在西伯利亚南部地区，北亚黄种单倍群N则和南部棕种C单倍群的通古斯民族发生混血，目前N南部西伯利亚通古斯人比例一般在20—50%之间，中国属于通古斯语系的满族也有15%黄种N单倍群的血统。\nN单倍群最东方的一支就是和印第安人混血而成的爱斯基摩人。由于N单倍群人群主要生活在地球最北方，所以N单倍群基因又被称为极北基因。N 单倍群黄种人在欧洲的基地，芬兰和爱沙尼亚。严重白化的黄种人代表——芬兰人，在外貌上已经和白人很难区别呢，但是头颅还是明显黄种人类型。\n\n芬兰人\n\n\n北亚N单倍群黄种人代表——西伯利亚北部的雅库特人，他们N比率高达92.2%\n\n雅库特人\n\n\nO单倍群黄种人\n在东南亚黄种人南支O，在大约两万年前进入中国，被称为“新亚洲人”，他们与亚洲上任霸主棕种人爆发了激烈的领地争端，最终，“新亚洲人”O取得了胜利，棕色人种被一路向北驱逐，最后逃亡到蒙古高原和东北亚地区，不过他们的女性却大部分留下来和“新亚洲人”O混血融合成了现在东亚—东南亚黄种人。\n\n据统计今日中国人来自棕种的母系成分大致占60%的成分，越往北汉人就吸收越多棕种人母系血统，在个别地区棕色人种的母系达到80%以上。\n\n\n从单倍群类型可以看出，亚洲黄种人基本的父系祖先和小部分母系祖先是来自于伊朗高原单倍群K的欧亚人，而大部分母系祖先则是更早到达亚洲的老亚洲人，所以亚洲黄种人实际上就是第三批走出非洲的欧亚人和前两批出非洲的老亚洲人女性的混血儿。\n\n黄种人扩张过程主要兵分三路，并形成现代黄种人O1、O2、O3三种不同单倍群。\n南岛支O1\n第一路O1黄种人我们称之为南岛支，这支黄种人擅长航海，他们从东南亚马来半岛出发，扩张到印度洋到太平洋半岛和岛屿上，向北他们抵达台湾，今日台湾高山族O1单倍群成分高达97%，是最纯种O1民族；向西他们一直抵达到非洲的马达加斯加岛，建立非洲唯一黄种人国家马达加斯加，向东南他们占领马来群岛(马来西亚、印尼、菲律宾等地)，并一路扩张到大洋洲三大群岛。\n\n南岛支主要分布图\n\n\n\n马达加斯加黄种人\n\n\n在浩瀚的太平洋上，星星点点散布着许许多多的岛屿，它们被分成三大岛群，即密克罗尼西亚、美拉尼西亚和波利尼西亚。O1黄种人成功入驻三大群岛，并与当地棕种土著混血，形成密克罗尼西亚、美拉尼西亚和波利尼西亚三大人种，其中又以波利尼西亚人种数量最多。\n\n波利尼西亚意思是“多岛群岛”，它北起夏威夷，南至新西兰，东至复活节岛，是太平洋三大群岛中范围最大的群岛。波利尼西亚人种包括毛利人、汤加人、夏威夷人、复活节岛人等10多个支系，共有90多万人，可能是由于渡海迁移，只有最强壮的人活了下来的原因，这些波利尼西亚人是世界最高大强壮种族之一，其种毛利人男性平均身高180CM，在过去是著名食人族。\n虽然波利尼西亚人种为棕黄混血人种，但是在部分地区O1的成分占绝对优势，其中汤加岛上的汤加人黄种O1单倍群高达82%，汤加在过去是一个以肥胖为美的国家，其前国王体重达到世界吉尼斯纪录，是世界上体重最重的君主。\n\n除称霸印度洋和太平洋外，O1黄种人还沿东部海岸线北上中国，并成为中国人的第二大单倍类型。\n\n虽然在中国北方黄河流域的山东、河北地区的汉族人中，O1的比例都小于5%，但是在长江以南O1占父系比率平均12%左右，尤其以江苏南部和浙江地区比例最高，超过20%以上，而这还只是父系祖先的比率，在母系祖先中比率更高，可以说O1成分不同是导致南北方汉人外貌不同一重大原因\n\n除汉族外，亚洲北部贝加尔湖畔的布里亚特人O1的比例高达34%，外蒙、满族、朝鲜、日本、堪察加人等民族也有部分O1类型，但一般比例不超过10%，都不是主体单倍群类型。\n\n泰柬支O2\n第二路黄种人O2可称为泰柬支，目前O2单倍群比例在中印半岛中部的泰国和柬埔寨最高，其中柬埔寨高棉族O2比率高达90%以上，泰国O2比例也高达55%，周边国家按离泰柬两国的远近相应递减，由此大致可以推测O2变异最初出现在泰柬两地，并以此为根据地，向四方扩散开来。\n\n混血较少的O1，O2人种\n\n\n在东南亚O2单倍群体与来自马来半岛和马来群岛O1融合，一起征服原本在东南亚矮黑人和棕种人，并和棕黑人种的女性混血形成今日东南亚地区的马来人种，由于东南亚丛林中矮黑人较多，所以马来人种外貌有较多矮黑人的特征。\n\n混血后的马来人种\n\n\n除称霸中南半岛外，O2单倍群体还沿东南亚海岸北上中国，如今O2单倍群在中国东南沿海广泛分布、中国少数民族人口最多的壮族就有36%属于O2单倍群，与广西相邻的广东O2单倍群也达到15%。与O1一样，O2在母系成分中比率更高，广东、广西部分地区甚至可以达到85%。目前O2是中国汉族第三大单倍群类型，不过除两广外，其它地区比例都不高\n\n这也造成广东汉人（客家人除外）外貌及语言和汉族其它地区都大为不同，北方人常说广东人一副马来人的长相原因就在于其混血较多O1、O2种群基因。\n\n除中国南方外，O2人群最北直达东北亚地区融入当地通古斯民族，并经朝鲜直达日本，如今满族人身上就有十分之一O2基因，朝鲜和日本O2比例甚至高达三分之一以上，比来自中国华夏族O3单倍群类型还多。可以说日本人、朝鲜人和东南亚人血缘关系更近，和中国血缘关系反而更远些。\n\n但是由于来自内陆中国华夏族O3的扩张，O2被分割成南北两支，因为长期隔离，形成南支以东南亚人主体为O2a和北支以日韩人为主体为O2b两种不同类型。\n\n华夏支O3\n第三路黄种人O3最初在缅甸生存了很长一段时间，后来也北上进入中国，不过他们和O1、O2沿海北上不同，走的是陆路。这条路可比沿海路线难走，最早的人类部落，大多只能沿海迁徙，这是因为内陆地区固体盐矿不如海盐丰富，缺乏人类的生存繁殖必要的盐和碘，尤其是中国云贵一代，盐巴自古紧俏，由于缺碘导致大脖子病很普遍，所以能走陆路说明O3已经具备较发达生产力。\nO3群体表现出强大的战斗力，早先进入中国的黄种基因NO、N、O1、O2基本全都融入O3群体中，他们成为汉藏语族黄种人的祖先，尤其在汉族血统中更占主导地位，所以又把第三路黄种人称为华夏支。\n\nO3-M134和O3—M122是今日中华民族中体内含量最多的，O3-M134是O3—M122下的亚型，\n南方O1虽高，但是这是上一级的，只能和O3对比，O3—M122也是O3-M134上一级，\n在O3-M134同级成员中，没有任何Y染色体能比O3-M134还高，而且O3-M134更是为汉藏民族所特有，可以说是华夏民族一大标志。\n\n\n目前O3大致占汉族单倍群的55-65%，其中华北地区、黑龙江、陕西、客家人比例较高，大致在65%-75%，尤其是福建客家人更是O3比率最高的群体；而江浙地区和闽粤除客家人以外人群O3比例较低，大致在50-55%。\n如今南北汉族在父系Y染色体单倍群上相似度高达90%，也就是说南北方汉族父系祖先都是同源的。南北汉族的差异主要体现在mtDNA上，也就是母系祖先来源上。\n\n中国人母系来源分析\n据统计今日中国人来自棕种的母系成分大致占60%的成分，越往北汉人就吸收越多棕种人母系血统，在个别地区棕色人种的母系达到80%以上。通过母系mtDNA检测结果得出，目前参与DNA验证人群是非常多的，可以肯定东亚黄种人母系有大量来自原老亚洲人的成分，老亚洲女性大多留下来的真实情况是黄种人打跑了老亚洲人的男人，抢走了他们的女人。\n黄种人O原本母系来源就较复杂，最初主要为N系下属各支，其原配具体可能B、F*,F1a，R9等，进入亚洲棕种人区域时，有大量的M加入进来，M被认为是棕种人的女人，如今M东亚地区最主要的母系来源。纯种的百越人，纯种的巴蜀人的确找不到，但是在汉人单倍群里还留有他们的基因。\n人类的历史证明，一个社会集团，其文化的进步往往取决于它是否有机会吸取邻近社会集团的经验。一个社会集团所获得的种种发现可以传给其他社会集团；彼此之间的交流愈多样化，相互学习的机会也就愈多。大体上，文化最原始的部落也就是那些长期与世隔绝的部落，因而，它们不能从邻近部落所取得的文化成就中获得好处。换句话说，如果其他地理因素相同，那么人类取得进步的关键就在于各民族之间的可接近性。最有机会与其他民族相互影响的那些民族，最有可能得到突飞猛进的发展。\n\n上古时期，随着华夏族的扩张，很多周别民族都融入华夏族，今日有些姓氏如：黄、徐、马、谭、郝、江等就是源自东夷族，汉族是在汉朝才形成的，春秋时期的楚国长期和南蛮混血，秦国和戎狄混血现在都是普遍的观点。\n古代战争中，男人往往被杀死，女人却被往往当作战利品留下来，所以导致世界上所有民族母系来源非常丰富。母系mtDNA成分也更复杂，汉族也不例外。\n越是强大民族，由于征服地区越多，母系往往越是复杂，在宠物中纯种意味着稀有，所以价钱也就越贵，但人不是拿来卖的，不以纯种论高贵，完全纯种民族都是与世隔绝的稀有民族，太纯种也意味不够强大，强大民族都有一个主体Y染色体类型，并融入其它各地区优秀种族人群\n\n从周朝开始，O3主体的中原王朝开始控制O1、O2的大本营中国南方地区，大量的O3单倍群汉族开始迁往长江以南，迁移的原因包括服兵役、逃避战乱、因罪流放、拓荒开发等，这些人基本都是男性，带家属的情况不多，所以大多娶了当地的女性，这就造成了南方汉族和北方汉族有着相同的父系祖先，却有不同的母系祖先。北方汉人的母系融入较多的棕种人类型，所以有些类似蒙古人，身材高大威猛，多国字脸和单眼皮，南方人融合大量O1、O2黄种人的血统，所以有些类似马来人，五官精致秀气，多瓜子脸和双眼皮。\n南方汉族不仅和北方汉族在母系来源上不同，南方各地区之间差异也很大，如江西的汉族和福建的汉族母系mtDNA就不同；甚至同是福建人，闽南人和客家人在母系mtDNA上也不同。这主要是因为南方多山远不如北方平原开阔，少数民族种类数量更多，各地区交流不便导致。\n汉族的单倍群发展\n虽然O3单倍群是当今汉族的主体，但是除汉族外，东亚、东南亚各地也都含有大量的O3单倍群，所以并不能说O3就能代表汉族，如果将O3单倍群细化，O3基因下O3-M122的亚型O3a5-M134仅现于汉藏民族，可以说华夏汉族重要标记，所以也有学者将O3-M122/O3-M134单倍群体称为古羌族。\n\n\n汉族的近亲羌族\n\n\n研究人士认为，大约六千年前，古羌族分为东西两支，一支向东最终形成华夏族，另一支向西形成羌族。羌人后来进入青藏高原遇到了当地生活数千年的土著矮黑人D，他们一起融合形成后来的藏族。今天，藏族的父系血统里D矮黑人与O3黄种人各占一半，离汉族最远的喜马拉雅山西南地区的藏族矮黑人的血统比例最高，而离汉族最近的四川境内的嘉绒藏族等则有最高的黄种人比例。\n\n混血D单倍群的西藏人\n\n\n\n各省Y染色体父系单倍群比值表\n\n\n华夏各地区单倍群历史变迁图\n\n蒙古种人并不是黄种人\n\n外蒙古人血统=28.7%黄种O单倍群+55%棕色人种+13%白种人+2%中东人+1.3%其它人种\n北方汉人血统=77%黄种O单倍群+6%黄种N单倍群+5%棕色人种+12%其它人种\n朝鲜族血统=75%黄种O单倍群+15%棕色人种+6%小黑人D +4%其它人种\n日本族血统=54.2%黄种O单倍群+34.7%小矮黑人+8.5%棕色人种+2.6其它人种\n\n黄种人学名叫做蒙古人种，蒙古人曾经被认为是最纯种的黄种人，这是因为19世纪的西方人种学家布卢门巴赫（Blumenbach）在划分世界各大人种时，认为单眼皮是黄种人的本质特征，而蒙古族人群中90%为单眼皮，所以他想当然认为蒙古人的相貌特征才是纯种的黄种人特征，其它黄种人相貌都是混血的产物，于是他就将黄种人学名定为蒙古人种，并成为了当今流行的说法。现在通过Y染色体的研究，让我们看看东亚各民族单倍群比率。\n\n从单倍群类型可以看出蒙古人的黄种单倍群O是最少的，蒙古人种相貌特征更接近C3棕色人种，单眼皮也是棕色人种的遗传特征，因为外蒙古族棕色人种单倍群比例高达55%，所以大部分蒙古人为单眼皮。朝鲜族单眼皮的比率也相当高同样是因为他们体内有大量棕色人种的基因。\n\n\n而黄种人的发源地东南亚则完全是双眼皮的天下，黄种人的近亲F中东部落下属各支也都是双眼皮，中国双眼皮比率南方占86%，北方占52%，整体上也是双眼皮占优势，所以再把黄色人种称为蒙古种人，并用单眼皮来判断是否为纯种黄种人明显不合适。\n\n\n将黄色人种称为蒙古人种并不合适。很多人可能会对中国人有那么多新几内亚K单倍群感到好奇，其实中国K单倍群主要是欧亚部落K下属的黄种人单倍群（NO、N*等），因为当时没有进一步化验，所以都归类到上属的k欧亚部落，\n从图中可以看出南方父系来自棕种人比北方多，但是北方棕种人母系会更多点\n纯种O3黄种人推测\n关于纯种黄种人NO最初究竟是什么样子，有学者推测其特征可能为：双眼皮、眉骨粗、颧骨细、瓜子脸、浅皮肤、深棕直发、棕色眼珠、脑容量大等，不过这也只是推测，毕竟经历数万年混血黄种人早已经不是最初的模样，目前最纯种黄种O3人群，当属云南省贡山的独龙族，他们是云南特有民族中人口最少的，现约有7000人，由于山区的与世隔绝，他们父系O3成分高达100%的，也许他们的外貌就是O3黄种人最初的模样。\n\n独龙族妹子\n\n\nP中亚部落\n亚洲黄种人征战棕种人的同时，曾经在伊朗高原和NO黄种人分离北上的“中亚部落”P于距今大约2万年发生分化，他们中的一支向东北进入西伯利亚演化出**Q单倍群**。\n西伯利亚驯鹿土著，爱斯基摩人\nQ单倍群一部分留在西伯利亚融入当地黄种人N、棕种人C中，在今天西伯利亚的驯鹿土著塞尔库普人Q高达60%以上，在靠近美洲附近，Q单倍群人群融合部分北亚黄种人N形成爱斯基摩人，如今爱斯基摩人单倍群中N占50%、Q占47%。\nQ印第安人\n不过Q单倍群最成功地方不是在西伯利亚，而是在美洲，Q单倍群下的一支Q3通过亚洲和美洲交界的白令海峡进入并扩散到整个美洲大陆成为了印第安人的祖先。\n由此可以看出印第安人并不是过去所说的是中国人北上迁移过去的，而是从中亚部落P中分离出来，但是为什么印第安人会有着黄种人的样貌呢？\n这是因为印第安人和亚洲黄种人有着共同的母系祖先棕种人，正如黄种人驱逐老亚洲棕种人父系，霸占他们的母系，美洲印第安人也同样征服先到达美洲的棕种人父系，并融合部分棕种人母系血统，棕种人母系基因无疑是显性基因，对后代外貌遗传影响更大，导致东亚黄种人和印第安人外貌上相似\n\n两者主要区别是印第安人面形宽大，肤色黄褐色，头发黑、直、硬，颧骨突出，多铲形门齿，鼻子更像白人，鼻根较高，鼻梁多呈凸形且前突，眼窝更深，身材也相对高大，其中南美的巴塔哥尼亚印第安人男性平均身高达183CM。\n\n虽然现在普遍把印第安人归类为黄种人，但是如果从遗传学角度，应该把印第安人排除出黄种人，只有NO单倍群才能称为黄色人种，印第安人应另外划为印第安人种或美洲人种更合适，也可以按照最初方法划为红色人种。（最早印第安人因常在皮肤各处涂红色颜料被划为红色人种）\n印第安人身上没有任何来自东亚—东南亚黄种O成分，父系基本都是Q和少量的C3，尤其是南美洲地区全是Q\n\n生活在地球最北端的爱斯基摩人，是N和Q的混血后代，国内著名主持人柳岩穿得少，特别“抗冻”，她经过DNA检测发现原来其先祖是古爱斯基摩人。\n\n现代东亚黄种人就算不混血，经过数万年演化也和古人不同，如果真要了解最早黄种人样貌，还是需要通过科技手段复原出土的头骨遗骸\n\nR印欧人种from P\n在P中亚部落分离出Q单倍群印第安人后，他们中的另一支向西进入南俄罗斯草原并在一万五千年前发生突变形成R单倍群，虽然R单倍群和印第安人Q单倍群同属P中亚部落为兄弟类型，但是印第安人Q反而和关系较远的黄种人NO有相似的外貌，这不仅因为印第安人和东亚人同有棕种母系祖先，另一个重要的原因是因为父系Q单倍群和黄种父系NO单倍群外貌并没有太大差别，正是R单倍群这次突变，形成了与黄种人甚至和他们兄弟印第安人完全不同的外貌。\n这些R单倍群体皮肤变得亮白、发色变浅、并形成高鼻深目、金发碧眼的外貌，曾有人认为高纬度地区容易形成这样特征，但是生活在地球最北端的N系黄种人却不是这种外貌，所以纬度样貌说并不合理。\n印度R单倍群\n金发碧眼是R单倍群体一重要特征，今日北欧是世界金发碧眼最多的地区，R单倍群后来进入印度形成今日印度主体民族印度斯坦人，但是印度斯坦人却基本没有金发，不过印度斯坦人传说中的祖先雅利安人就是金发蓝眼，这是因为金发是隐性基因，不容易遗传，所以在人种多样，混血严重的印度金发绝迹，但也能找到个别稀有纯种雅利安人的后代。\n\n\n蓝眼印度人\n\n\n\n混血后常见印度人\n\n\n不仅如此，随着全球化频繁的婚配和移民活动，白皮肤和金发碧眼的基因将会被深色发和深色皮肤的种族基因压倒，金发一族终将会成为濒危人群。\n东支R1a和西支R1b\n中亚印欧人种R单倍群后来分化成东支R1a(雅利安人)和西支R1b（西欧基因）\nR1b（西欧基因）\n其中西支R1b在1万5000年左右开始进入I单倍群欧洲克罗马农人的土地。R1b单倍群在欧洲占有重要的地位，尤其在西欧地区更是明显，所以又被叫做西欧基因，可以说欧洲西部大部分讲印欧语都是R1b后代\n\n如意大利R1a成分不到2%，而R1b却达到49%，其它如苏格兰族72.5%、西班牙族65%、德意志族的48%都为R1b单倍群。\n\n但是为何这些R1b的后代都纷纷忘记了自己的祖先语言巴斯克语，而讲起R1a的印欧语呢？\n相关研究学者认为，约在6000年前印欧人东支R1a曾入侵欧洲，并征服西支R1b，只剩下躲在比利牛斯山脉中巴斯克人，R1a以少数征服了多数，并强迫他们学习自己的语言，而他们血统则被大多数的欧洲原住民R1b所同化。\n英国和爱尔兰的凯尔特人也是R1b占绝对优势，红发绿眼是凯尔特人常见特征，在R1b占优势的西欧地区也是红发高发区，所以红发绿眼很可能R1b单倍群特有基因特征，红发是很稀有的。\nR1a单倍群-雅利安人\n他们约在6000年——4000年左右大肆扩张，不仅入侵欧洲，同时还侵入伊朗和印度。目前R1a是欧洲白人、印度斯坦人、中亚突厥人的主要单倍群类型之一。\n在欧洲R1a分布从发源地东欧开始，自东向西、自北向南减少。\n\n今天波兰56.5%、俄罗斯46%、挪威29%、冰岛22%、芬兰20%、喀山鞑靼的18%、德意志16%都为R1a单倍群类型。\n而在亚洲R1a则主要分布在中亚、中东和南亚，其中阿尔泰族的50%、吉尔吉斯族的40%、印度的印欧语系民族的40%、维吾尔族的21%、乌孜别克族的18%、波斯族的18%、土耳其族的8%都为R1a类型后代。\n\n德国希特勒执政后推崇纯种印欧人种——雅利安人，他认为斯拉夫民族（俄国、乌克兰、波兰等）是混血后的印欧人，已经沦为劣等种族，应被消灭，在二战时期希特勒共屠杀200万波兰人和500多万苏联人，现从雅利安人R1a单倍群分布看来，波兰高达56.5%，俄国也高达46%，是雅利安人成份最高的民族之一，那么是否意味着希特勒梦想消灭的他所谓的劣种斯拉夫民族就是他最崇拜的雅利安人呢？\n从希特勒的语录中我们可以了解到他所说的雅利安人应为纯种印欧人种，包括R1a和R1b两支，而并不是单指R1a人群。斯拉夫民族R1a比率虽然高，但是被N系黄种人混血严重，确实不属于纯种R系种群，希特勒种族歧视和屠杀无疑是错误，不过说斯拉夫民族是混血后的雅利安人并没错。\n印欧人R的迁徙最终形成古代欧亚大陆的人种格局，目前欧洲主体三大单倍群R1a、R1b、I分布情况如下：\n一：印欧人东支雅利安R1a单倍群占绝对优势的欧洲国家和地区，R1a东支受黄种N单倍群影响严重，说明历史上入侵欧洲游牧民族多是N单倍群为主\n\n波兰：R1a占56.5%，R1b占16.5%，I占16%、N占11%\n俄国：R1a占46%，R1b占6%，I占15.5%，N占23%\n立陶宛：R1a占38%，R1b占5%，I占13%，N占42%\n芬兰：R1a占7.5%、R1b占3.5%，I占29%，N占60%\n\n二：印欧人西支R1b单倍群占优势，或R1a、R1b含量相当欧洲国家和地区\n\n威尔士：R1b占82%，R1a占2%，I占7.5%。\n爱尔兰：R1b占79%，R1a占3%，I占13%。\n苏格兰：R1b占72.5%，R1a占8.5%，I占14%。\n英格兰：R1b占67%，R1a占4.5%，I占21%。\n法国：R1b占61%，R1a占2.5%，I占16.5%，J占7%。\n西班牙：R1b占69%，R1a占2%，I占7%，J占4%。\n荷兰：R1b占53.5%，R1a占6%，I占25.5%，J占6%，E1b1b占4.5%。\n意大利：R1b占49%，R1a占2.5%，I占6.5%，J占20%，E1b1b占11%。（意大利的南部，主要是来自中东的J，而意大利的北部R的比率高一些）\n丹麦：R1b占44.5%，R1a占12.5%，I占36%。\n德国：R1b占44.5%，R1a占16%，I占22%，J占4.5%，E1b1b占5.5%。\n挪威：R1b占28%，R1a占28%，I占37%，\n瑞典：R1b占21%。R1a占23.5%，I占44%，\n希腊：R1b占12%，R1a占12%，I占15.5%，J占27%，E1b1b占27%。（从比率看希腊人R所占比例甚至没有来自西亚的J基因和非洲黑人E基因多，所以古希腊文明并不是纯粹的R创造的，明显受到亚非两地的影响。希腊人的外貌也和欧洲人不同，他们属于欧洲人和西亚人、非洲人混血类型，颅型短宽，胡须、体毛尤其发达，其肤色较深，发色、眼色也较深，几乎没有金发碧眼的类型.）\n\n\n\n由于这是较早的图，图中一些叫法不是很妥当，阿尔泰基因就是R1a（雅利安人），过去由于阿尔泰族的50%都是R1a，所以叫阿尔泰基因\n\n北欧基因就是克罗马农人的I基因，在北欧分布比较多，不过最多还是巴尔干半岛克罗地亚人，从基因上看，北欧人是最纯种白人的说法并不正确，凯尔特人反而会纯种点\n\n\n图中将G单倍群称为突厥基因叫法错误，很多突厥人都没有G基因，G基主要是高加索民族，应叫高加索基因\n\n和中东人种混血最多的R系印欧人——伊朗人，伊朗就是“雅利安人的国家”的意思，\n三大混血R系印欧人群，看谁混血混的最好看，从左到右依次为希腊、印度、伊朗\n\n亚洲现代人类迁徙地图\n\n语系\n19世纪时，语言学界的比较学派研究了世界上近百种语言，发现有些语言的某些语音、词汇、语法规则之间有对应关系，他们把世界上的语言按相似程度分为语系、语族、语支和语种。其中我们日常所说的就是语种，相似的语种归为同支语言——语支，相似语支再归为同族语言——语族，同一语族一般和广义上的一个大民族对应，如突厥语族对应突厥民族，日耳曼语族对应日耳曼民族。而有些语族与语族之间又有些对应关系，又被归为同系语言，这样就形成了语言的谱系关系，目前学术界通过语言间的亲属关系将世界的语言大体划分为以下九大语系（也有十大、七大划分法），通过语系和Y染色单倍群的对照，我们可以发现，他们之间有着较一致的对应关系。\nY染色体虽不能对应四大人种，但是却和民族有极强的对应关系，而民族之间最重要的区别之一就是语言。**除Y染色体单倍群外，语言也是反映人类亲缘关系的一大标准，单倍群所占比率只代表血统的同化，而语言则代表政治和文化的同化。**例如中欧的匈牙利人单倍群为R1a占20.4%、R1b占20.4%、I占28.3%、Q占2.6%，从单倍群类型上看，匈牙利无疑算是相当纯种是欧洲人，当代匈牙利人外貌和体质也和周别欧洲民族类似，不过他们在语言上却完全不同。\n匈牙利人讲着和芬兰人类似的乌拉尔系语言，而不是周别欧洲民族所说的印欧语，这是因为当地居民曾经被来自东方的马扎尔人征服过（注：匈牙利的祖先不是匈奴人），马扎尔人以少数征服多数，他们的血统也被当地土著同化，但是作为统治者，他们语言却成为当地人的常用语，可以说语言比单倍群比率更能反映一个种族的胜利。\n匈牙利人单倍群为R1a占20.4%、R1b占20.4%、I占28.3%、Q占2.6%，从单倍群类型上看，匈牙利无疑算是相当纯种是欧洲人（R、I占优势），当代匈牙利人外貌和体质也和周别欧洲民族类似。\n有人称他们祖先是匈奴人，但是你看他们那有一点像亚洲人的样子，只是因为他们使用来自东方征服者的语言，从血统上看，基本都是欧洲土著\n语系分布地图\n\n印欧语系\n这是世界上最大的语系，主要使用者为R单倍群的印欧人，代表R系民族迁移和征服。印欧语系分为两大类：S类语言和K类语言，分别对应印欧人东支R1a和印欧人西支R1b\nS类语言\nS类语言人群的主体R单倍群为R1a，下属语族包括：\n1、印度语族：该语族人民统称为印度斯坦人，包括梵语、印地语、巴利语等，\n2、伊朗语族：包括波斯语、阿富汗语等，该语族和印度语族为近亲语言，伊朗人和印度人也都称自己祖先为雅利安人，说明他们之间有较大亲缘关系。\n3、斯拉夫语族：对应斯拉夫民族，共分为东部、西部、南部三大语支：东部语支包括俄语、乌克兰语、白俄罗斯语，对应东斯拉夫民族；西部语支包括捷克语、斯洛伐克语、波兰语、卢萨提亚语，对应西斯拉夫民族；南部语支包括保加利亚语、马其顿语、塞尔维亚-克罗地亚语和斯洛文尼亚语，对应南斯拉夫民族。\n4、波罗的海语族：主要分布在原苏联的波罗的海沿岸，原先有三种语言，拉脱维亚语，立陶宛语和古普鲁士语，但后来古普鲁士被德意志人征服，古普鲁士语随之消亡。波罗的海语族和斯拉夫语族有较大的亲缘关系，由于波罗的海民族都含有较多黄种N单倍群，所以其语言也受到N单倍群乌拉尔语系的较大影响。\n5、其它独立语族：包括巴尔干半岛阿尔巴尼亚语族和高加索山脉亚美尼亚语族等。\nK类语言\nK类语言人群的**主体R单倍群为R1b**，或R1b与R1a大体相当，下属语族包括：\n1、日耳曼语族：包括英语、德语、荷兰语、北欧各主要语言，使用者被称为日耳曼民族，对应单倍群为R1b下的U106。\n2、拉丁语族：又称为罗曼语族或罗马语族，包括法语、意大利语、西班牙语、葡萄牙语和罗马尼亚语，这些国家使用语言都是从古罗马的拉丁语演化而来，罗马拉丁语相当于汉语文言文，现今拉丁语国家语言相当于汉语方言白话文。拉丁语国家在过去大多属于西罗马帝国的领土，西罗马帝国被日耳曼蛮族灭亡后，入侵西罗马境内的日耳曼蛮族，其单倍群类型、语言和文化都被拉丁罗马化，今日拉丁人无论是外貌，语言、还是性格习俗都和日耳曼民族大为不同，拉丁人对应单倍群类型多为罗马时代的R1b-u152和R1b-M269，和日耳曼民族的R1b-u106不一样，其信仰也多为罗马天主教，而日耳曼语族多信仰新教。在性格方面拉丁人热情奔放，注重生活，多艺术家，擅长生产各类奢侈品，法国菜和意大利菜等拉丁菜系都世界享有盛名，而日耳曼人性格严谨，工作认真，多科学家和哲学家，擅长机械制造，英国菜和德国菜都以难吃出名。\n3、希腊语族：目前主要在希腊和塞普路斯两地使用。\n4、凯尔特语族：使用者称凯尔特人，目前主要分布在苏格兰、爱尔兰、威尔士地区。对应的单倍群类型是R1b-L21。\n\n拉丁人大多混血比较严重，他们身材比日耳曼矮小，金发碧眼很少见，多信仰天主教，爱喝红酒。性格热情、奔放、浪漫（有时有点散漫）、追求艺术、生活和爱情，讲究生活第一，工作第二。文艺复兴兴起源于拉丁国家意大利，达芬奇、毕加索等著名艺术大家都是拉丁人。世界上的生活奢侈品牌如服装、鞋包、香水、豪华轿车等主要来自拉丁国家（法国、意大利、西班牙）。法国饮食和意大利饮食在世界享有盛名，拉丁人喜欢跳更奔放更有野性的拉丁舞和听歌剧（三大男高音歌手都是来自拉丁国家）。\n日尔曼人身材更高大，多金发碧眼，皮肤更白，日耳曼人性格严谨，工作认真，多科学家和哲学家，擅长机械制造，英国菜和德国菜都以难吃出名，而代表美国饮食的更是只有缺乏营养的快餐。日尔曼人喜欢跳有基本套路的国际标准舞（起源于英国）和听交响乐。\n汉藏语系\n这个不用说，就是我们中国人的主体语系，也是世界上的第二大语系，代表单倍群类型是黄种人的O3，下属语族包括：\n\n\n汉语族：对应汉语各类方言，共分北方话（简称：北语，代表普通话）、广东话（简称：粤语）、江浙话（简称：吴语）、福建话（简称：闽语）、湖南话（简称：湘语）、江西话（简称：赣语）、客家话（简称：客语）七大方言，下又分各小方言，如闽语按其语言特点大致分为5大主要的语言片：闽北语、闽东语、闽南语、闽中语和莆仙话。从汉语方言分布看，汉语七大方言就有六大在南方，北方汉族语言统一，而南方不但各省方言不同，连省内方言也各不相同，南方一些山区甚至在几里之内就有好几种不同的方言，这也正好和南方母系来源各不相同对应。中国北方话的相似有利于北方人的团结也是历来北方更容易统一南方的重要原因之一。\n\n\n藏缅语族：主要包括中国彝族语、藏语、羌语、东南亚缅甸语、印度曼尼普尔民族语言等，有些学者认为汉语也应该被划入藏缅语族（不过要改名为汉藏语族），因为汉语族和藏缅语族十分相似，而且汉语和藏语之间的关系比藏语和缅甸语的关系更密切，从东亚人类迁移上看也是汉藏民族先和缅甸族分化后，然后汉族和藏族才发生进一步的分化，如果藏语和缅甸语能划在一起，那么汉语和藏语就更应该能划在一起。从汉语和藏缅语族关系大致可以推出汉族和彝族、藏族、羌族、缅甸族关系应为同宗，从Y染色体的单倍群类型上也证明了这一点。\n\n\n苗瑶语族：就是我国苗族和瑶族的语言，苗瑶两族关系密切，瑶族一度被认为是苗族的分支，过去很多人从蚩尤和女娲的传说认为苗族和汉族是很晚才分化，不过从单倍群上看，虽然苗瑶语族单倍群也是以O3为主，但下属分支不同，苗瑶语族属于O3c＋O3d类型，而汉藏语族多属于O3e类型，而且从语系上看，苗族和汉族语言差别较大，反而是较远的缅甸族和汉族关系更密切。\n\n\n壮侗语族：下属语支包括壮傣语支（含泰国语、老挝语、中国西南部布依族的布依语、缅甸东北部掸族的掸语、印度东北部阿萨姆邦的阿萨姆语）；侗水语支（包括中国西南地区少数民族的侗语、水语、仫佬语等）；黎语支（海南黎族语言。）壮侗语族Y染色体单倍群O2成分普遍比O3还高，语言也和其它的汉藏语系大为不同，所以现在学者大多把他们独立划为壮侗语系，也有学者认为壮侗语系和南亚语系关系比汉藏语系更接近。\n\n\n\n印度地区的汉藏语系\n印度有2000万黄种人，其中包括大量汉藏语系民族，许多都和中国人一样以龙为图腾，他们和中国人有非常大的亲源关系，印度东北各邦的民族，包括藏南地的阿鲁纳恰尔邦，相貌和中国人很相似，在印度地区经常面对各种各样种族歧视,印度,东北邦的人一直想从印度独立出来，由于人种和中国接近,很多人想干脆加入中国算了，\n印度的汉藏语系主要分布在中印交界藏南地区。不丹语也属于汉藏语系 ，不丹原来是中国的附属国，受中国的册封。他们也用中国龙作为他们的图腾，每个不丹人都相信自己是龙的传人，不丹国旗有龙，并且不丹国旗上的龙严格符合中国藩属的规格，采用的是四爪金龙，这是藩王级别的标志（五爪金龙只有中国皇帝才可以采用），代表不丹中国心。\n南亚语系\n南亚语系与汉族语系中壮侗语族无论是血统还是语言都有密切的关系。\n南亚语系基因成分复杂多样，但还是可以将其相对较多的O2单倍群作为标示。\n该语系主要包括柬埔寨语、越南语、缅甸孟族语，也包括印度蒙达语族和部分中国西南部少数民族语言，也有学者认为南亚语系和南岛语系本为同源。\n南岛语系\n也叫马来—波利尼西亚语系，对应的是黄种O1单倍群，它主要分布于西起马达加斯加，东到复活节岛，北起台湾岛和夏威夷群岛，南抵新西兰的广阔海域内的岛屿上，是世界上唯一一种主要分布在海岛上的语系，也是世界上分布面积最广的语系之一。下属包括印度尼西亚语族、波利尼西亚语族、美拉尼西亚语族、密克罗尼西亚语族四大语族。其中最大的印度尼西亚语族是菲律宾、马来西亚、印尼、文莱等国语言，也包括台湾高山族语、非洲马达加斯加语等，而其它三大语族则分别对应大洋洲波利尼西亚、美拉尼西亚、密克罗尼西亚三大群岛土著所用语言。 （南岛语系与O1南岛支分布图相同）\n\n乌拉尔语系\n分布于从北欧的斯堪的纳维亚半岛往东到乌拉尔山脉，再到西伯利亚地区的一组语言，对应的是黄种N单倍群。下属包括芬兰-乌戈尔语族和西伯利亚地区萨莫耶德语族（含有一定的Q单倍群）。其中芬兰—乌戈尔语族包括芬兰语支和乌戈尔语支，前者包括芬兰语、爱沙尼亚语等，后者包括中欧的匈牙利语和鄂毕河流域的曼西语等，主要为侵入欧洲的N系、Q系黄种游牧民族使用的语言。\n乌拉尔语系和阿尔泰语系关系密切，在过去曾被一起划分为乌拉尔-阿尔泰语系。\n阿尔泰语系\n这是世界第三大语系，也是我国北方少数民族主要语系，代表的单倍群是亚洲棕种C3类型，阿尔泰语系的扩张对应的是棕种游牧民族的扩张，下属包括突厥、蒙古、通古斯3个语族，有时也包括朝鲜语族和日本语族。 突厥语系的发源地阿尔泰山脉，阿尔泰山脉也是阿尔泰语系得名的原因\n\n\n突厥语族是指古代突厥民族使用过的，现在突厥后裔仍在使用的语言，他们又常被统一称为突厥人，突厥语族是阿尔泰语系中最大的一个语族，分布于西起巴尔干半岛，东至西伯利亚东部的勒拿河，南临阿拉伯半岛，北至亚洲大陆北端的新西伯利亚群岛的广大地区，使用突厥语为主要地区包括土耳其、阿塞拜疆、塞浦路斯、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯鞑靼斯坦共和国以及中国的新疆等地（中国境内使用人口约750万）。虽然突厥语是中亚民族的主要语言，但是在过去中亚、新疆等地使用的都是印欧语，而且直到今日印欧人R单倍群依然是中亚、新疆单倍群主要成分之一，之所以现在会改用阿尔泰语，原因就在于来自东方讲阿尔泰语的突厥人的征服。\n\n\n蒙古语族：不用说就是蒙古人以及和蒙古相关民族的语言，蒙古语族各语言主要分布在中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯联邦、阿富汗等地，使用人口约500万。从使用人数上看，虽然蒙古帝国的领土和声威都远胜曾经突厥汗国，但是在语言文明的同化方面，突厥人要远胜过蒙古人。\n\n蒙古人民共和国境内的蒙古语属喀尔喀方言，使用人口约 180万;中国境内的蒙古语分内蒙古、卫拉特、巴尔虎布利亚特3种方言，使用人口近300万。\n不过今日中国许多蒙古族已经不会说蒙古语了，蒙古国人口也增加到290万\n\n\n\n通古斯语族：通古斯语族包括中国满族语和东北亚鄂伦春语、埃文基语、鄂温克语、赫哲语等，一般认为该语族共同起源于西伯利亚东部森林的通古斯河畔，现在使用通古斯语的人数已经十分稀少，最大的通古斯语族—满族也基本不会讲满语。\n\n\n朝鲜语族：朝鲜语和通古斯语关系密切，又被合称为朝鲜-通古斯语族，虽然从单倍群类型上看，朝鲜基本都是黄种O类型，但是从语言上看朝鲜人基本被棕种通古斯人同化，这说明朝鲜民族最初很可能是以外来移民的方式不断融入当地棕种C3通古斯民族，而不是像汉族一样征服当地棕种民族，从单倍群类型上看汉族是以O3单倍群为主体，而朝鲜族O1、O2、O3成分都有一定比例，反映出朝鲜族是不同类型黄种人分批进入棕种通古斯人区域，不断被通古斯同化的过程。不过也有人认为朝鲜语和通古斯语还是有较大不同，应该被单独划为一语系。\n\n\n日本语族：日本学者曾经提议将日语单独划为一个语系，包含日语族和琉球语族两大分支，也有学者认为日本和朝鲜语系接近，应该划出“日朝语系”。从实际情况上看，日语主要是来自从朝鲜东渡过来的弥生人的语言，既然朝鲜属于阿尔泰语，所以也有人认为日本语系和朝鲜语系一样应该同归为“阿尔泰语系”。\n\n\n\n土耳其的吊诡\n土耳其最常被称为突厥人的后代，但是土耳其的父系单倍群：R1b占15%，R1a占7.5%，I占5.5%，J占33.5%，E1b1b占11%。基本上没有任何来自东方的成分，从血统上看大部分土耳其人实际上是希腊人和阿拉伯人（J–地中海人）的混血，讲突厥语原因就在于他们被来自东方突厥人征服过\n中亚新疆语言亦是征服产物\n\n中亚五国都是突厥语国家\n\n中亚、新疆原本是R系印欧语的天下，但是来自东方C3棕种人（游牧民族）后来征服这里，虽然这里依然以R单倍群为主，但是语言已经从印欧语系变成了阿尔泰语系\n突厥语族中的哈萨克人基本就是来自东方的棕黄人种 。今日突厥国家中以哈萨克人C3成分最多，哈萨克人应该最接近古代突厥人的模样，土耳其人则基本没多少古突厥的血统 （哈萨克人是标准的东方面孔和维吾尔人相貌大不相同）\n而突厥语族的维吾尔人、乌兹别克人虽然改用阿尔泰语系，则单倍群类型大多还是以印欧语系R单倍群为主\n闪-含语系\n该语系又叫做亚非语系，主要分布于北非和西南亚地区，对应的是地中海J单倍群，也包括东北非E3b单倍群，下属包括闪米特语族和含米语族。\n闪-含语系的由来据《圣经﹒旧约﹒创世纪》记载：上帝觉得人类十分邪恶，所以要将所有人消灭。在罪孽深重的人类中，只有诺亚在上帝面前蒙恩。上帝认为他是一个有德之人，很守本分；诺亚的三个儿子也在他的严格教育下也没有误入歧途。于是诺亚夫妇、三个儿子及其媳妇听从上帝的旨意造出“诺亚方舟”逃过大洪水，作为新一代人种保存下来，这三个儿子大哥叫做闪，老二叫做含，最小一个叫雅弗。\n闪的子孙叫闪米特人，“闪米特”意即“闪的子孙”，又称“塞姆人”或“闪族”，他们被认为是亚洲人祖先，现在的闪米特人特指闪米特语族，包括犹太语和阿拉伯语等。他们现在主要分布在西亚和北非地区，体内 J 单倍群(地中海基因)占主体地位。\n含的子孙叫含米特人，“含米特”意即“含的子孙”，又称“哈姆人”或“含族”，被认为是古埃及、古努比亚等非洲人祖先。他们主要分布在北非，除J单倍群外，大部分含米特人体内东北非黑人E3b单倍群的比率比J单倍群还多。\n\n含米特语可以认为是东北非E3b单倍群黑人在J单倍群闪米特民族混合下产生语言。含米特语可分为北支、东支：北支系指北非的柏柏尔人的语言，东支指非洲东北部古埃及人（不是今日埃及人）、科普特人和库希特各族的语言。\n\n雅弗的子孙相传为雅利安人，亦称“印欧人”，被认为是欧洲白人的祖先。不过印欧语系和闪-含语系可是大为不同。\n高加索语系\n主要指分布于黑海和里海之间高加索山区的民族语言，其代表是格鲁吉亚语和车臣语，从地理位置和人种单倍群类型上看，很可能对应的是高加索G单倍群语系，虽然G单倍群已经普遍不是当地居民比率最大的单倍群类型。\n达罗毗荼语系\n就是印度达罗毗荼人使用的语言，前面说过他们的单倍群类型就是一个万花筒，所以具体也不清楚其到底对应的是哪支父系单倍群的语言（含量最多L单倍群可能性最大），也许就是一种混合语言，已知达罗毗荼语系支系多达20多种，和他们体内多样化的单倍群一样复杂，其中最重要的四种是泰米尔语、马拉雅拉姆语、卡纳里斯语和泰卢固语，分别为印度泰米尔纳德邦、喀拉拉邦、卡纳塔克邦和安得拉邦的官方语言。\n其它语系\n除了这以上九大语系外，还有一些非洲、美洲地区的语系，如非洲的尼日尔—刚果语系、沙里—尼罗语系、科依桑语系（对应A单倍群），美洲的爱斯基摩—阿留申语系以及一些印第安语系（对应Q单倍群），不过因为都比较孤立，在以后讲世界史中的民族关系应用较少，就不一一介绍了\n地理小记\n帕米尔高原\n帕米尔高原（塔吉克语中就是世界屋脊的意思）平均海拔高过青藏高原，只是面积较小，加上海拔峰值在喜马拉雅山，所以世界屋脊还是被青藏高原戴着。帕米尔高原是亚洲的一个重要分隔位，东西方在近代前都难以逾越，正所谓是东西方的隔离屏障，各方打到这里，都变成强弩之末，势不能穿鲁缟。\n干旱牧区\n草原人民活动在欧亚大陆干旱半干旱气候区，这里是欧亚大陆除西伯利亚以外最恶劣的生存坏境，但是却盛产冷兵器时代最可怕的军备——马匹，艰苦的坏境和强大的军备使他们对富裕的周边文明馋涎欲滴，只要一有机会他们就去掠夺周边文明的财富，他们常常自比作狼，而把周边文明比作羊，认为对富裕文明的掠夺如同狼吃羊一样天经地义。在古代史上草原游牧文明是世界各大文明中最可怕的敌人，直到火器广泛应用以后，游牧民族骑兵作战优势不复存在，从此逐渐退出历史的舞台。\n中东\n\n这里是古代世界文明最早的交流中心\n\n广义的中东包括整个西亚和北非，狭义的中东是指地中海东部到波斯湾的大片地区，即西亚北非中从埃及到土耳其、伊朗的部分，这片地段被称为两洋三州五海之地，其处是联系亚欧非三大洲，沟通大西洋和印度洋的枢纽地带，周边被地中海、黑海、里海、红海、阿拉伯海五大海所环绕。这片地区与黑非洲文明间隔着撒哈拉沙漠、与欧洲文明间隔着土耳其海峡和高加索山脉、与东亚文明间隔着帕米尔高原、与南亚文明间隔着兴都库什山，中东处在各大文明的地理中心位置，这也是为何这片炎热干旱，沙漠遍野的地区能够在古代长期保持较先进的文明重要原因之一。\n伊朗高原\n伊朗高原周围被雄伟的高山所包围，其南部边界是印度洋和波斯湾，高原中央是辽阔的内陆盆地，没有河流通往大海。\n扎格罗斯山脉\n位于伊朗伊朗高原西南部，是伊朗第一大山脉，为伊朗高原和伊拉克美索不达米亚平原的分界线\n美索不达米亚平原\n是指伊拉克及叙利亚东部，为西亚地区最大的平原，又称中东两河流域。\n小亚细亚\n\n亚细亚即亚洲，源自希腊语中的日出之地\n\n小亚细亚意思就是小亚洲，小亚细亚又名安纳托利亚或西亚美尼亚，是亚洲西南部的一个半岛，包括土耳其的安那托利亚一带和塞浦路斯岛，大体上相当于土耳其的亚洲部分，位于黑海和地中海之间。\n非洲\n源自希腊语，全称是阿非利加洲，意思是：阳光灼热的地方，以撒哈拉沙漠为界，分为北非和撒哈拉以南非洲两部分，北非现在70%以上为阿拉伯人，阿拉伯文化与伊斯兰教为北非重要人文特征，和西亚文化类似，撒哈拉沙漠中部以南的非洲以黑色人种为主，所以又叫做黑非洲。\n其它\n世界史讲的过程中，一直有一个问题，把世界各个文明孤立介绍，这种世界史不如称之为国别史，且介绍顺序也常有问题。\n例如常从埃及，巴比伦，印度，希腊，罗马这顺序过来，仿佛这几个国家是先后出现的。实际上巴比伦地区的苏美尔文明比埃及更早，只是巴比伦国出现的较晚，占印度大篇幅的列国时期，孔雀帝国出现时间都比古希腊开始和繁荣的时间要晚。\n参考资料\n全球史下看中国（第1部）：上古时代【翁启宇】\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史","地理","生物"]},{"title":"平凡回望中的不平凡","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E9%97%B4%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97.html","content":"\n\n素材源头是一位从业心理医生近70年的普通1.48米小老太太，90岁时仍在朝九晚五地工作，老太太不是什么巨擘($b\\grave{o}$)，没发表过什么文章，一生无惊天动地的成绩。就其 平凡世俗但却丰满 的人生，娓娓而来的一本小书。摘取部分文字成文。\n\n家人健康，精力充沛，有几个知己可以交谈，就不错，其它都是过眼云烟\n将事做好的习惯与内心\n\n工作\n适当忙碌比过多空闲好，如果工作紧紧束缚自己宝贵的生命和家人的幸福，自信的离开，更多是别人赚钱的工具。\n必须这样做（你也应该）就像人生不必要的行囊，年轻时将欲望作为动力，努力奋斗并非坏事，但随着年龄增长，要学会了解自己，慢慢舍弃想要达到更多的想法，让自己快乐起来。\n在追求的过程中，一定要分清自己是自己，他人在实践他人的人生，我们不需要追寻别人的脚步。\n与人关系\n在遭遇不顺时，放弃浇愁只会止步之前，按部就班好好工作和生活，微观来说，命运一部分就是与人的关系，改变人生的重要转机，会在某时某刻突然出现。\n试着扩大交际圈，探索未知的世界，都会给你带来别样的体验，这样就不容易记起那些烦心事，不被负面情绪影响的最大秘诀就是好好生活，这种药不会立即生效，需要日积月累，人生中精神饱满的时光非常有限，不要过多停留在过去的阴影中。\n很多表面风光无限的人，承担的责任更大，立场与人际关系更复杂，遇到的问题和承受的压力，比旁人看到的多得多，无论外表多么光鲜。打开盒子，谁也不知道会冒出什么东西。\n人，生而孤独\n过于害怕孤独，就会迎合别人，或对别人妥协，使自己痛苦，但人生的本意基本就是一个人生活（从出生到离开，正视孤独有助于过上更幸福的人生）。人与人之间有距离，想通了，对别人不会抱有强烈的愿望或期待，给周围人带来的自由和欢乐也更多，孤独并非一件坏事，是一件正常的事。\n不依附伴侣，把心力放在自己想要的生活上「耗费几年或几十年想要改变别人，只会让自己陷入麻烦中」。\n家庭\n追求完美只是父母的一厢情愿，与孩子的幸福并无多大关系，为了孩子的健康成长，不如平和和欢笑地与孩子好好相处。\n对患者来说，能接待他们的医生很多，但对孩子而言，母亲只有一个。孩子的成长的每个过程比任何一部动漫或电影都令人感动，育儿过程是让自己越发优秀的成长过程，培养他人是一种很好的经验。\n不要阻碍别人自立，如果全面掌控，成长就会停止，公司如此，孩子亦如此。孩子开启自己的人生，父母就不要贸然闯入，孩子成年后人生与父母人生已完全分离，有座桥梁沟通关系，不能频繁登上这座桥，应在各自生活事业兴趣中寻求充实感。\n活在当下，坦然自在\n日文版的翻译放在首标题上了，也更符合岛国人内敛的风格，个人觉得比现今书名《人间值得》更为贴切，或者用二位作者的另一续作的翻译名《活得通透》，也更合适。\n两位作者（都是精神科医生，【奥田弘美】54 vs 92【中村恒子】）如下：\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"从Error Based Injection看MySQL group by过程","url":"/%E4%BB%8EError-Based-Injection%E7%9C%8BMySQL%20group-by%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B.html","content":"\nError Based Injection\n作为SQL注入的一种\n\n构造恶意的输入来引发报错\n数据回显受限时，通过构造特定的报错来获取数据库中的特定数据\n\n利用回显的报错注入\n不断尝试，进行猜测目标数据库的基本信息和sql语句构造的形式\n利用报错信息的报错注入\n\n最典型的是双注入查询\n\n在一个查询中再套一个子查询，精心构造报错，这些报错将泄露数据库数据[1]\n\n\nBIGINT等数据类型溢出\nXpath语法错误，如extractValue（目标文档，xml路径)，第二个参数当你写入其它格式就会报错，如第二个参数改为concat(‘!’,select database())，！开头不是xml语法，就报错异常回显。类似的函数还有updateXml\nconcat+rand+group by导致主键重复\n类型转换报错\nAnd More\n\n看看这套group by组合\nselect count(*),CONCAT(version(),floor(rand(0)*2)) as x from information_schema.tables group by x;\n触发报错\n[Err] 1062 - Duplicate entry &#x27;5.7.30-log1&#x27; for key &#x27;&lt;group_key&gt;&#x27;\n这个错入注入里 rand() 指定参数很重要，一旦制定后，生成的随机数队列就是确定的，结合 *2 并 floor后，其生成的值只有0和1两种情况\n这个报错不得不说是MySQL的bug，因为在MS SQL和Access里并不会出现，联想到先前一位程序员大法师吐槽 最流行的数据库MySQL代码乱糟糟\n其根源在于rand函数在select后的第二阶段，又被再次运行所致\n\nselect 发现group key不存在，设定下一阶段动作转态为insert操作\n在insert时，再次运行rand()，进行插入动作，再运行到第3行就出错了。前两行的统计结果也是错的。\n\nfloor(rand(0)*2)生成的序列为0,1,1,0,1，前面的count结果也是错误，本应两行count各为1，计算结果却是5.7.30-log1计数为2\n前两行将0,1,1给用掉了，第3行的0,1撞在枪口上\n\n\n\nDrill-Down看看\n随机数\n计算机因为是程序控制，只能产生有规律的随机数，即成为伪随机数，咱们看个例子\nRand_seed=(rand_seed*123+59)%65536;\n你当黑盒看，放进一个数，会出来一个特定的数，并把这个数当下一次的种子再放进去\n\n如果你每次放进去一样的种子，生成的随机数列就是一样的了。这样的随机数设计有无好处？有，可重入\n有些软件，放时间种子是内置的默认操作，有些则将种子设置开放给调用方\n\nPG数据库的random函数就不接受参数，JS的Math.random()也不接受参数\n\n\n\n配套什么操作才出错\n\n\nmax，avg，min，sum均一样，都在第3行出错\n\n\n没有count类函数是否出错？不出错。\n\n\n剖析过程\ngroup by执行过程中的insert逻辑不同，等同于select distinct的语义（性能相同，distinct当有limit加持时，性能更好）\n\n创建临时表，且创建唯一索引\n遍历源表，依次取数据插入临时表。碰见唯一键冲突则跳过，否则插入成功（此处没复用出bug的代码）\n遍历完成后，将临时表作为结果集返回给客户端\n\nDrill-Down再看group by\n一个标准的group by局域包含排序，分组，聚合函数。当group by语句中没有order by，默认按group字段升序排序。\n\n\n\nfiltered\nExtra\n\n\n\n\n100\nUsing temporary; Using filsort\n\n\n\nexplain看常见分析结果：Using Index能用上索引，Using temporary使用临时表，Using filsort需要排序\n\ngroup by字段用不上索引，那么临时表常见就要搬出来救场，故也为什么索引对性能很重要\n filsort并不是说通过磁盘文件进行排序，只是告诉我们排序操作，或可理解为不按表中索引的排序\n\n\n内存临时表若达到tmp_table_size的大小（默认16M），就会将内存临时表升级为磁盘临时表，然后重新开始遍历计算（丢弃重做纯浪费）\n执行过程一边读数据，一边直接得到结果，是不需要额外内存的，要额外内存保存中间结果（如遍历无序数据）或过程要利用唯一索引约束等，就要搬出临时表救场\n遍历完成后，再根据group by字段做排序，得到结果集返回给客户端\n\n觉得文字不够形象的，可参考此文章[2]的配图加深认识\n\nDrill-Down第三弹：order by\n排序执行过程：\nsort_buffer是有序数组，临时表是二维表结构\n若sort_buffer设置的大小不够大，会用临时表来辅助排序（增大sort_buffer_size可尽量减少对排序数据进行分段，buffer区放不下，分治；分段会造成MySQL不得不使用临时表进行交换排序）\n\n\n如何确定是否使用了临时文件来完成排序呢？[4]\nset session optimizer_trace=&quot;enabled=on&quot;; -- 开启optimizer_trace运行SQL语句;select * from information_schema.OPTIMIZER_TRACE&#x27;; --查询优化跟踪过程set session optimizer_trace=&quot;enabled=off&quot;; -- 关闭optimizer_trace\n结果中的number_of_tmp_files表示排序过程中用到的临时文件数，因为sort_buffer放不下\n\n\nfilsort也是在内存中排序的，排序区sort_buffer是每个thread独享的\n\n双路排序【rowid排序】：取排序字段和行数据指针，放进sort_buffer中完成排序，是MySQL认为磁盘外部排序还比不上回表查询的效率时的选择，好处是节省内存\n单路排序【全字段排序】：所有字段在sort_buffer中进行排序，好处是不用再查表记录（减少随机IO)，排序结果直接返回，性能更好（此改进算法子MySQL4.1出现，应对大内存时代）\n\n当max_length_for_sort_data更大，就用单路排序算法。否则才降级为双路排序，排序效率高，就要加大此参数值，结合去掉不必要的返回字段\n\n\n\n\n\n\n觉得文字不够形象的，可参考此文章[3]的配图加深认识\n\nDrill-Down第四弹：概括总结与优化\n\n分组（group by）列无索引的数据，因为无序，所以要创建临时表，然后一个个判断属于哪个分组，再根据分组进行排序\ngroup by的优化\n\n索引不必赘述，顺序访问获取要返回的字段或计算聚合函数，再友好不过。列值变化当前组就访问结束，将之前的数据直接返回，避免创建临时表，也不用sort_buffer额外排序，大大提高效率\n\nMySQL 5.7支持generated column机制，来实现列数据关联更新，在此列上加上索引，可更加便利达到目标效果\n\n\n不用排序的可禁止排序，添加order by null，这样你在explain就可以看到效果，没有了filesort\n（若分组字段使用率很低，欠缺索引）很大的表，内存临时表放不下转成磁盘临时表，也是耗时的，有无更深的优化方法？\n\n可试用 SQL_BIG_RESULT这个hint来暗示优化器改变执行过程【告诉优化器直接使用磁盘临时表，省却内存放不下，丢弃，再用磁盘临时表的浪费动作，且用排序算法】\n大喇叭宣告：这个语句涉及的数据量很大，请直接用磁盘临时表\n\n如未达到磁盘临时表的使用条件，仍不会使用磁盘临时表\n\n\n优化器一看，磁盘临时表是B+树存储，存储效率不如数组来得高，语句最终的结果使用场景为全块扫描，没有范围查找。优化器会使用数组结构的磁盘临时表（类比memory引擎内存临时表来理解，和磁盘临时表默认InnoDB不同，数据单独存放，索引保存数据位置。采用无序hash索引，数据按照写入数据顺序存放，本质与数组无差）\nSQL_BIG_RESULT+order by null explain结果只展示filesort，Using temporary没出现\n\n\n\n\n\n\n此段也可以对照[2]来加深形象理解\n\n参考\n1.HatBoy MySQL报错注入 ↩2.腾讯云 看一遍就理解groupby ↩3.CSDN MySQL排序内部原理揭秘 ↩4.CSDN MySQL优化器原理 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["数据库"]},{"title":"从技术到管理转型的几个技巧","url":"/%E4%BB%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7.html","content":"\n纯技术走向技术管理，是开发人员职业生涯的新发展。\n如何从管好自己变成管好别人？这个转型的问题相信很多人都碰到了。悟性好，准备足的，对于转型的不适，看看书可能就解决了。\n也许你最开始会面对转型处理不好，昏天黑地的加班。到慢慢你能放弃内心挣扎，良好的泰然处之这些个问题。但说到底，这里的核心是组织管理，组织行为学了解一下无妨，但人的因素团队的管理又不是组织行为学能简单的涵盖的。\n说几句恭维性的话，你能在公司里被领导提拔为一个管理者，至少是聪明度，准备度在团队中是一流的，且具有一定不可替代性的业务精英。\n\n我转一下同事写的在转型过程中的总结，也用以提醒自己\n管理的核心是管理人\n技术转型管理的人都会在这个问题上本末倒置，管理初期都会把大量精力放在开发工作的管理上。如流程改进，项目跟进排期，需求评审PK，技术体系规划，整天都是你忙碌憔悴的身影（这是你想要的么？）。\n当你把团队定义成自己的四肢，精力的延伸，让自己这个骨干更能干事，这可能在一时会有效果。但人的精力还是有限的，当团队人员增长到9个以上的时候，你会明显感觉到这不是一件快乐的事儿。\n还有一点更可怕的事情，老组员不愿意再做你的影子。他们的主动性被你扼杀的差不多了。老大交一个团队给你，是想你把这个团队带起来。「起来」的含义很多：成熟，可持续，有战斗力，有思想。核心是团队能力的提升。\n只控制目标，定期Review，少给评论，少下结论，任其犯错，事后总结。这对于高级的老大来说，容易做到，因为他们对事情的细节不熟悉，故容易放得开。但对于技术转型的人来说却容易成为一个超大门槛，事无巨细，了然于心。知道可以做到更好更规范，却要憋着不说，是一种内心折磨。但唯有如此官僚才能让团队不变成一个人的手脚，而自己日益成长。\n理解人的另外一个概念是：“人的事情比项目的事情更加重要!”。\n当招聘需求和项目需求碰在一起的时候，新管理者都会毫不犹豫的把招聘的事情搁在一边，把精力集中到攻坚项目。其实不然，项目永远都是做不完的，人的问题才是最迫切的。\n管理没有人就不是管理的。把招聘的优先级放在所有工作的第一位，把人员指标当作决不让步的关键。据同事的观察，厉害的领导在人的问题上往往非常狼性，决不让步。而在其他情况下又非常好说话，甚至愿意主动帮忙你最紧急的项目往后推几天。\n交流与关注\n作为基层管理，你必然对上又对下，了解每个人的特点和性格，合适用人，关注给予每个人阶段性的发展适应的工作分配与支持，相信已经是能做到的极限了。对于组织成员，你需要给些空间，就如放风筝一样。\n充分的向上沟通是你给团队带来的最大福利\n技术人员很含蓄，当你不突破含蓄的习惯，进而缺乏向上沟通将使你长时间的悲催。\n\n\n克服心理障碍，把领导当朋友。所有困难困惑都让他知道，早期他会乐意帮助你，时间长了会把你的成长当作他的心血。\n\n\n把下属的成绩宣扬出去，让你的领导知道。下属的成绩既是你的成绩，也是你的领导他的成绩。\n\n\n\n在领导前面变得八卦，把团队各种变化讲给领导听，不经意间给他提供重要资讯。孜孜不倦向领导打听各种消息，他们有很多你完全不知道的消息和对待某些问题更高层面的看法。\n\n团队的困难解决，团队的成绩放大，有价值的资讯，这些是一个管理者对于团队来说不可替代性产生的重要因素。\n\n总结来说，领导也是人，所谓领导，就是给更大的领导服务的人\n\n为个人增值而工作\n带团队绝不仅仅是技术够高就行，更重要的是综合影响力的提升。只有个人价值真正随着你的工作而一点点提升，才能收获到更多成就感，也能让自己更值钱。让自己更值钱的目标也能让你将很多问题和决定看的更透彻。\n结语\n管理不像写代码，没有准确的方法论，如上只是提醒，修行还靠个人。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队","IT"]},{"title":"从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考","url":"/%E4%BB%8E%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7IPO%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83.html","content":"\n最近迅雷不是二次重启赴美IPO么，从毕业时室友去到迅雷，大家羡慕不已，呼成x百万，到现在早已离开，迅雷却仍在奋斗奔上市。也算是见证了一个科技扎实的创业公司在这一路的变化，虽然不是从内部，这里写下看到的一点点分析。\n2014其商业模式\n迅雷的商业模式简单：\n\n网络广告\n付费增值\n游戏及其它业务\n\n\n2011年，网络广告收入占51%，付费增值25%，游戏及其它服务占24%\n大家都知道迅雷从下载软件转战在线视频，但并不属于第一梯队。归结于马太效应，二三线梯队的迅雷，酷六，56，激动网能量都开始下滑，集中表现在广告收入的急速下降。\n从迅雷提交的spec文件上，发现广告收入已下滑到只剩下20%，2014 Q1只剩18.3%。\n放眼视频行业，广告依然是各家的主要口粮。换句话说，迅雷已不算一个靠广告为主的视频公司，变成了付费用户为主，游戏为辅的公司。\n但是这两者来看，都是向消费者收费的模式，在欧美人口味看来，不具有持续的放大潜力。类比得出来腾讯的模式为什么要弱过阿里。两家都是在卖流量，但是阿里的流量更“挣钱”。\n游戏模式估值\n腾讯好在骑在磅礴的游戏浪潮上，关系链上的人活跃时，基本可认为处于闲暇时刻。\n\n\n说到游戏浪潮，游戏概念股一直在资本市场上不太受待见，PE基本只能给到5-6倍左右。\n\n\n再加之多数是靠运营成功的公司，还未证明其开发实力。\n有开发实力可能公司更稳固，老外的游戏口味本身就与东方不同，市场成熟度也不同，再加上无线互联网的变数，君不见现在活的最high，挣的最快的都是搞代理运营的，你要去美上市，你就忍忍吧，老美看长期价值来投资，死脑筋发展的更坚实，不像我东方大国满地豆腐渣，建在流沙上也没啥。\n\n现在回头看，10 年前的自己，还真是对社会运行与生存认识浅薄，口无遮拦张嘴即来\n\n\n\n三是游戏公司的持续成长性问题，游戏是文化创意产业，世界顶尖游戏公司暴雪也没能抵挡住现在持续下降的业绩，以及后续作品推出来乏力的宿命。可见，如何解决可持续发展，是所有游戏公司的一门必修课。\n\n\n互联网经济生态\n\n无聊经济（典型代表: 游戏）\n团体优惠（已经式微）\n线上广告/销售(所有的销售，实物虚拟都可以向网上搬)\n\n这些形态就是互联网经济生态的加和？08年就听过上海的同事离职前做此样的分享，说明别人思虑在先，我等上班太麻痹了。\n2011其市场数据附录[1]\nxychart-beta horizontal\n    title \"2011一季度三大视频品牌广告营收\"\n    x-axis [\"迅雷\", \"优酷\", \"土豆\"]\n    y-axis \"万美元\" 0 --> 2000\n    bar [537, 1830, 1123]\npie showData title 2011.4月下载工具使用时间Top5\n\"迅雷Thunder\":78\n\"电驴Emule\":6.3\n\"FlashGet\":2.8\n\"超级旋风\":2.6\n\"FlashFXP\":2\npie showData title 2011一季度在线视频月均浏览时间分布\n\"优酷\":31\n\"土豆\":16\n\"搜狐\":14.6\n\"爱奇艺\":12.1\n\"迅雷看看\":4.2\n\"酷6\":4.1\n\"新浪视频\":4\n\"中国网络电视台\":2.3\n\"56\":2.2\n\"乐视\":1.3\n\"其它\":8.2\n数据参考\n1.中国经济周刊 两月四度推迟IPO，迅雷是个奇迹，反正我信了 ↩","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"企业人才的筛选模型","url":"/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%9B%E9%80%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html","content":"\n《贞观政要-卷七-崇儒学》所言：为政之要，惟在得人，用其非才，必难致治。放在企业经营中一样适用，国家其实也像一个大公司。\n在小的企业，筛选人才靠老板的眼光，在大的企业，不是所有招聘都过老板，为了统一认知，需订立对人才的评估指标，以指导执行。\n因为 IQ，EQ 的高接受度，用来量化衡量一个人就有了好的评价尺子/评价角度。我们看看一众『商』及在不同岗位的指导意义。\n各类能力/考察指标\n\n\n\n智商\n情商\n专业\n经验\n逆商\n态度\n忠诚\n资源\n规划力\n执行力\n领导力\n\n\n\n\n教育背景学习理解逻辑分析抽象归纳思维敏捷\n亲和友善人际理解沟通协调换位思考感召能力\n专业经验学术背景理论深厚技术过硬前沿思考知识宽广\n行业经验解决问题跨界融合\n毅力坚韧执着抗压逆势应对适应能力\n求新求变狼性自驱阳光开放解决问题\n文化认同忠诚可靠诚信尽责职业操守遵纪合规\n社会关系资源转化市场网络\n视野格局洞察规划创新能力系统思维\n结果导向组织规划团队驾驭\n团队领导激情激励识人用人凝聚感染人才培养\n\n\n\n能力\nIQ\n无需多解释，标签是：反应敏捷，教育背景。高 IQ 的人善于举一反三，融会贯通，快速总结提炼，表达清晰简洁\n\nPQ\nProfession Quotient，专业商。标签是：专业经验，学术背景。是在专业上有长期，深度的钻研及成果，出自特定学术领域的专业教育培训。对于一些业务经营岗位，精算，量化投资，科研人员等专业技术岗位较为关键\nEQ\n同样无需解释。标签是：亲和友善，人际理解。销售人才必须具备很高的情商，专业技术人才对事多，对人少，要求可适当降低\nSQ\nSocial Resources Quotient，资源商。标签是：人脉关系，资源转化。对销售工作尤为重要。\nEEQ\nExperience Quotient，经验商，标签是：行业经验，解决问题。能从经验中形成很强的预判问题，发现问题，分析并解决问题的能力，是管理和销售人才不可少的核心素质\nExecute\n执行能力，标签是：结果导向，组织执行。能合理分解计划，充分利用资源，有组织，有步骤的实施计划，坚定的结果导向，以结果检验执行\nThink\n规划力，标签是：格局事业，跨越式思维。洞察机遇，创造性跨界思维能力。这一指标是评价潜力管理干部的关键，级别越高，此指标要求越高。本质是衡量人的思维能力。就像有些人是从高空俯瞰城市一样，能透视掌握空中，地面，地下交通设施的整体结构和关系，看到城市在更大版图中的位置，有些人则只看到分散的车，人，房子。\n每个人的成长，一定伴随着立体性思维的构建成长。点线面体最少要到面的层级，能多角度多维度思考分析，将复杂交错的线条，有逻辑地综合起来，把握全局抓住复杂问题的本质找出整体的解决方案。\n到体这个层级，就进一步是框架式思维，能将海量知识，经验，信息，结构性地分类，重组。将上下左右，过去，现在和未来融会贯通，直达本质，找准战略定位和未来趋势。\nLead\n领导力，标签是：团队领导，感染激励。能自上而下穿透至基层，凝聚人心，以身作则，不断激发队伍积极性，主动性，创造性，利用影响力实现高绩效，高质量\n态度\nATQ\nAttitude Quotient，态度商，标签是：求新求变，狼性自驱。ATQ 优秀的人才普遍具有强烈的自我成就动机和强大的自驱力，能持续敏锐学习，自我突破。ATQ 无论对管理还是销售人员，都是判断其个人发展潜力的核心指标。个人认为此动机维度统摄如下两商，甚至经验商业远程被其统摄。\nAQ\nAdversity Quotient，逆商，标签是：毅力坚韧，执着抗压。具备坚持不懈死磕到底的个性。AQ 不够强的人，很难走得好，走得远\nLQ\nLoyalty Quotient，忠诚商。标签是：文化认同，忠诚可靠。根基是个人的品行，进而是个人价值观和企业文化契合\n岗位评判要求\n把能力维度都分四档\n\nA+档，非常杰出，同类人群前 5%\nA-档，较为突出，同类人群前 20%\nB+档，基本合格，同类人群前 70%\nB-档，不达要求，同类人群后 30%\n\n不同工位在不同指标要达到的水平不同，如销售人才，EQ 至少要在 A - 及以上，但 PQ 可以是 B-。但若所有能力加权是 B-，这样的候选人不能录用。\n\n\n\n\n智商\n情商\n专业商\n经验商\n逆商\n态度商\n忠诚商\n资源商\n规划力\n执行力\n领导力\n\n\n\n\n管理\n中\n中\n高\n高\n高\n高\n高\n低\n高\n高\n高\n\n\n专业\n高\n低\n高\n低\n中\n中\n低\n低\n中\n中\n低\n\n\n销售\n低\n高\n低\n高\n高\n高\n低\n高\n低\n高\n中\n\n\n\n如果以 10 分制的定区间的话\ngitGraph\ncommit id:\"10分\"\nbranch \"杰出\"\ncommit id:\"9.5分\" tag:\"前1%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"杰出\"\ncommit id:\"优秀\"\nbranch \"优秀\"\ncommit id:\"9分\" tag:\"前5%\"\ncommit id:\"8.5分\" tag:\"前10%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"优秀\"\ncommit id:\"良好\"\nbranch \"良好\"\ncommit id:\"8分\" tag:\"前20%\"\ncommit id:\"7.5分\" tag:\"前30%\"\ncommit id:\"7分\" tag:\"前40%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"良好\"\ncommit id:\"基本符合\"\nbranch \"基本符合\"\ncommit id:\"6.5分\" tag:\"前50%\"\ncommit id:\"6分\" tag:\"前60%\"\ncommit id:\"5分\" tag:\"前70%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"基本符合\"\ncommit id:\"不符\" type:REVERSE\ncommit id:\"4.5分\" type:REVERSE tag:\"后30%\"\ncommit id:\"0分\" type:REVERSE\n\n但在实际执行过程中，打分制因拆分太细，且分值和比例并不直接映射，不利于操作人记忆掌握，且每个人的打分水位线不同，就像电影评分有人都打分偏高，不利于数据对齐分析，不如简化为更上面的四档位\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管","HR"]},{"title":"企业大数据历史与应用趋势","url":"/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E4%B8%8E%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF.html","content":"\n大数据\nGartner 技术成熟度曲线的随动\n大数据并不是一个学术概念，而是自2010年从产业界孕育起始，陆续有开源项目配套出现。2013年大数据到了炒作顶点，到14年往落地方面去走。从15年开始，大数据概念已经消失，取而代之的是“机器学习”。16年机器学习炒作到顶峰，17年深度学习代替机器学习站在顶点上，18年都差不多只谈深度学习。\n\n\n\n内涵\n\n\n数据驱动智能化是大数据的本质特征\n\n\n相较技术，大数据更是商业模式创新和企业治理方法论（从它的孕育点就可见一斑）\n\n肩扛去卖菜和开车去卖菜，是有很大的经营区别的。大数据相当于高速公路，将从种菜思路改变成公路思维，但不会改变你的业务本质\n\n\n\n短期内，强人工智能还不会出现\n\n当前还不能进行因果学习，都还停留在弱人工智能的阶段\n人类还可暂时领先的领域：跨领域推理，抽象能力，知其然和所以然，常识，自我意识，审美，情感\n\n\n\n能解决什么问题\n\n\n数据孤岛\n\n\n数据异构\n产生一系列技术来解决如上两点，融合，继而用好数据\n\n\n目标朝向\n智能化，人性化，精细化\n数据分析的流程\n目标体系指导（自顶向下）\n\n指标体系\n数据采集体系\n数据治理体系：清洗变换\n数据分析\n数据可视化\n\n新的工业革命呼之欲出\n生产力发展历史规律告诉互联网什么？\n\n新生产力（技术和产品）改变新的商业模式\n\n\n\n第一次工业革命 - 200年\n\n\n第二次工业革命 - 100年\n\n\n第三次工业革命 - 50年\n\n\n\n2015年以前50年的时间，其主要特征是：（更加）自动化的流水线， 生产力：电子及IT，所以也被称为基于电脑和网络的知识信息革命\n\n\n第四次工业革命\n\n\n以大数据，人工智能，物联网等信息技术为基础的超连接革命。\n\n主要特征：智能化；生产力：物联网\n数据的广度，宽度，深度呈几何式增长，人类认识有了更深更广的数据基础。其中，广度只指以标签化描述数据更多特征；宽度是指数据类型除了量化数据，还包括了非结构化的图片，视频，文字等；深度是指通过知识图谱，形成了数据关系的认识网络。\n中国过去20年IT发展\n沿着如下这么一条路线\n\n信息化\n移动互联网化（每个人都在产生数据，过去10年）\n\n\n互联网=流量+内容+服务\n\n\n\n数据化（云计算，大数据–服务专业化，数据互联融合）\n\n数字化对企业的价值和意义\n\n聪明经营。先知先觉先行\n提升管理。提升内部管理和运转效率，简化流程降低耗时\n防范风险。风险分析前移，从财务数据，业务数据，行为数据，再借助人工智能精准监测分析，甚至微表情\n优化服务。服务庞大客户群，人力不可为，数字化能力7*24必不可少\n降低成本，取代人工\n\n\n\n\n智能化（数据的资源化，服务的智能化）\n\n\n人工智能的前进要素\n\n\n数据+算法+算力（能量）\n\n\n芯片+平台（PAAS+SAAS）+大数据（基础设施）\n\n\n平台有：视觉图像，NLP，预测 等\n从弱人工智能到强人工智能（因果推理），乐观看还需要20~30年的时间，或许算力的突破要突破硅基芯片，向碳基芯片或生物芯片要助力，从脑科学材料学方面借力启发\n\n人工智能想模拟人的听说读写，是一种交互形式的改变\n现在的机器智能是”大数据小任务“，如GPT-3有1750亿参数，使用上千GB的数据训练出来。如何让机器智能有人脑小样本学习的能力，动物的直觉能力及举一反三的能力，是面临的巨大挑战\n\n到了2022年12月，通用人机对话智能GPT3.5横空出世，让上面的时间推测掉进了垃圾堆\n人脑的模式\n\n人脑的运行速度慢过计算机1000万倍，但能耗低很多（整个人基础代谢大概相当于100w的灯泡，虽然大脑耗能占比较高）\n更像一个量子计算机，彼此之间相互联动，有很多捷径，不像当前的电脑是一个固定的程序，多核并行度要弱于人脑\n人类先天打造了一个包含大量神经元的熵极高的初始化状态–出生的婴儿有大量神经元且之间有大量的连接，伴随着成长，很多连接消失，有价值的连接不断强化，熵变得越来越低，大脑中变得越来越有序，也变得越来越固执\n我们的记忆也是不断以熵最小化的形式组织及重构，换种说法我们总在找最低存储代价的特征抽取方案，仿佛有一个关乎存储代价的惩罚函数在不断指导算法的更新\n\n人脑的配置就像：量子CPU+超级显卡+小号运行内存+超级内存的组合\n\n这一切的结果来自于大自然的压力，人类的识别器必须执行更简单的运算，快速的进行反应\n\n新革命的形态\n\n互联网下半场的第一起跑者，摩拜单车\n\n10年内 硬件+软件形式重做一遍衣食住行；所有有传感器的，都可以看作新形态\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据","AI"]},{"title":"低生育陷阱","url":"/%E4%BD%8E%E7%94%9F%E8%82%B2%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1.html","content":"\n低生育陷阱\n七普的钟声\n\n过去10年中国人口的变化\n\n65岁以上定义为老年人口\n\n劳动年龄[15-64岁]人口相较于10年下降6%，占比68.6%（前值74.5%）,合计9.7亿人，相较于10年少了3000w。\n我国流动人口3.76亿人，相对于六普增加70%，显示出城镇经济活力提升，相当于每4个人中有一个流动人口，省内流动占大头（$2 \\over 3$）。2020年城镇化率63.9%，已看齐中等偏上收入国家平均线。\n调查显示2020年我国育龄妇女主 观生育意愿为1.8，低于代际更替率。主观生育意愿的降低一方面是经济社会发展中的自然现象，但我国1.3的总和生育率显著低于1.8的生育意愿，这方面有待于完善生育政策降低家庭面临的经济压力、时间压力和心理压力，保障女性就业合法权益，缩小生育水平与生育意愿之间的差距。\n\n育龄妇女[15-49岁]人数在 2011年达到约3.8亿的顶峰后持续减少，使2010年后出生人口直接进入下行区间。随着政策的（全面二孩）放开。在2016年、2017年出生人口大幅增长至1,883万和1,765万人，但随即掉头向下，二孩占比由2013年的30%左右升至2017年的50%左右。随着此前积累的存量释放，2018年以来出生人口回落，但出生人口中的二孩及 以上孩次占比在2019年仍高达59.5%，“二孩效应”放缓但仍在延续，使得2020年 0-14岁少儿人口占比较2010年回升1.4个百分点。\n截止到2023年，讨论最热烈的是1孩出生率，0.5，这个举世不是最低也是第二低的数字了，说明这个群体社会的确有病了。\n\n\n\n年份\n2015\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n\n\n\n\n出生人口（万）\n1655\n1883\n1765\n1523\n1456\n1202\n1062\n956\n902\n954\n\n\n死亡人口（万）\n975\n977\n986\n993\n998\n998\n1014\n1041\n1110\n1093\n\n\n净增加（万）\n680\n906\n779\n530\n458\n204\n48\n-85\n-208\n-139\n\n\n\n60 岁以上的老人首次破了3 亿大关，占总人口的 22%。60 年代和 70 年代的出生潮也意味着后面的死亡人口会继续攀升，死亡人口每年可能会飚到 1900 万，无声的人口地震，人口红利蜕变成养老压力，我们终将见证很多之前你不曾知道的历史。\n老龄化袭来\n\n随着第二波婴儿潮（63-）出生的人口逐步步入老年时期，劳动力作 为经济增长的重要生产要素之一，中国劳动年龄人口占比 将进一步下降，对宏观经济带来多方面影响。\n0-14占比18%，65岁以上占比13.5%。我们在人均GDP1万美金时就达到了日韩3w美金时的老龄化率，真所谓未富先老(65岁以上人口占比暂低于发达国家，日德法在20%开外，美英韩在20%以下，日本超级夸张，28%)。在老龄化增速方面，第一第二被韩中两国占据。\n\n到2030年，预计65岁以上人口占比触及20%，预计届时全国人口收缩到12.33亿。\n农村老龄化更严重\n在年轻人进城就业的整体趋势下，大量劳动年龄人口向城市迁移，使中国农村地区老龄化明显高于城市地区。2020年全国乡村地区60岁、65岁及以上老年人占总人口比重分别达到23.8%、17.7%，分别较城镇地区高约8个百分点和6.6个百分点。我国教育、就医等公共服务供给与户籍挂钩，加重了养老和育幼的负担。\n\n局势中的福地\n人口增长\n贵州、重庆两地人口较2010年分别增长11%，扭转了六普中下降的趋势。\n贵州在过去十年间生育率保持在较高水平，0-14岁人口占比高达24%，居全国第二；此外，贵州15-59岁人口较2010年增加188万，也是贵州人口增长的主要原因。贵州人口的增长与交通条件大幅改善有很大关系，加上大数据综合试验区的助力势头强劲。\n重庆已形成全球重要的电子信息产业集群，带动常住人口较2010年增长11%。随着成渝地区双城经济圈建设，长江经济带建设，还有集聚潜力。\n年轻态\n人口流入数量最多的广东地区，相比之下人口老龄 化并不显著，65岁以上人口的比重为8.7%，仅高于西藏的5.7%以及新疆的7.8%。\n\n劳动人口变化\n东部地区人口占全国近40%，中部占25.8%，西部占27.1%，东北占7%，与2010相比，东部地区占比上升2.2%，中部下降0.8%，西部上升0.2%，东北下降1.2%。\n劳动人口流动与区域经济发展速度，就业机会，自然环境，医疗教育等公共服务存在紧密联系。过去10年，东北劳动人口减少较为明显，广东，浙江，新疆，贵州，重庆，海南等劳动人口增长最多。\n\n新中国的人口观察\n\n新中国三次婴儿潮分别在建国初期、1962-1973年左右、 1986-1990年左右出现，有明显的周期性，第四次婴儿潮在计生政策的影响下并未在2010年左右出现。\ntimeline\n    title 中国人口增长节点\n    section 高速阶段\n    1981 : 10亿\n    1988 : 11亿\n    1995 : 12亿\n         : 98年12.48亿\n         : 世界人口21%\n    section 中速阶段\n    2005 : 13亿\n    section 低速阶段\n    2020 : 14亿\n代际人口数量\n\n90+00 的确比70+80少了1亿人，计生工作在70，80一代身上收效不错\n\n70后在接下来的10年也即将步入退休通道，加上60后的庞大基数，的确是一个庞大的退休群体。当80后再退场的时候，更是雪上加霜。后面的年轻人如果不赶上产业升级及我们跳出中等收入陷阱，真是难以想象退休人员过得是什么日子。\npie showData title 代际人口数(亿)\n    \"50前\" : 1.17\n    \"50后\" : 1.47\n    \"60后\" : 2.2\n    \"70后\" : 2\n    \"80后\" : 2.2\n    \"90后\" : 1.66\n    \"00后\" : 1.57\n    \"10后\" : 1.67\n\ngantt\n    title 以60断代-代际人口柱状对比图-markdown\n    dateFormat SSS\n    axisFormat %L\n    section 60前2.64亿\n        50前1.17亿: 000, 117\n        50后1.47亿:117,264\n    section 60+70共4.2亿\n        60后2.2亿:000,220\n        70后2亿:220,420\n    section 80+90共3.86亿\n        80后2.2亿:000,220\n        90后1.66亿:220,386\n    section 00后3.24亿\n        00后1.57亿:00,000,157\n        10后1.67亿:157,324\n\ngantt\n    title 以50断代-代际人口柱状对比图-markdown\n    dateFormat SSS\n    axisFormat %L\n    section 50前1.17亿\n        50前1.17亿: crit,done,000, 117\n    section 50+60共3.67亿\n        50后1.47亿:done,000,147\n        60后2.2亿:active,147,367\n    section 70+80共4.2亿\n        70后2亿:done,000,200\n        80后2.2亿:active,200,420\n    section 90+00共3.23亿\n        90后1.66亿:done,000,167\n        00后1.57亿:active,167,323\n    section 10后1.67亿\n        10后1.67亿:crit,active,000,167\n2030人口预测\n具体参见[1]\n\n预计到2030年\n\n65岁以上人口达到2.5亿规模，55-65的退休准退休年龄占到2.3亿规模【合计4.8亿，巨大的银发经济】\n0-14岁的占到2.3亿规模，-9%，\n25-35的1.67亿规模，相较于2020年下降的比较厉害，-26%。\n\n\n\n吹哨警醒\n中国难以走出低生育陷阱（尽可以参阅东亚的几个邻居），这里面有多方面的原因。也有人说低生育陷阱（自身强化）本身是个大忽悠，就如封面图有爬出来的国家，但中国现有低生育意愿是真实存在的，这样提完全没毛病。日韩这两位小哥确实跌进去现在还没爬出来，中国步其后尘，也有很大的近似风险。\n\n东亚难兄难弟\n\n东亚几个邻居的状况差不多，只不过韩国体量较小，相当于广东省，日本走得更早，体量也更大，对我们更有借鉴意义。但中国的幅员纵深及多样性非日本能比，所以中国在人口下降时所能做的挽救和努力空间稍大点，但个人因生活在城市中，不太看好。\n\n儒家文化下的隐忍，勤奋和内敛使东亚几国成为百年仅有的几个强国俱乐部后起之秀。但无一例外发力阶段用力过猛，导致一大堆后遗症。\n年轻人还奋斗不/日本的镜子\n\n日本搞工业的冲劲比中国过分的多，都不止是996了，每天干活18个小时。经济奇迹就是这么被搞出来的，好处是取得巨大的进展，毛病是奋斗狂成为管理层后天天跟年轻人扯当年的辉煌往事，说年轻一代都是废物，连当年一半努力都达不到，成功的把年轻人给吓废了。\n\n日本年轻人也不想去过当年的那种生活，甚至都觉得当初都那样奋斗了，还是迎来了大停滞，现在的奋斗又有什么意义呢。\n奋斗的动机\n奋斗这种事，是需要动机的，动机有两种\n\n对贫穷的恐惧，但不是谁/代阶群体 都有感受的\n另外一个就是对美好生活的向往，也不是所有人都向往。\n\n中日韩崛起的动机往往来自对”一无所有“的恐惧，战后一穷二白，努力摆脱悲惨境遇成了早期人的源动力，再苦也比住在瓦砾里强，再累想到今后会好起来，也就忍了。\n年轻一代缺乏悲惨经历，也就缺少对贫穷的恐惧，生活本来优渥，那么艰苦的奋斗到底是为了什么呢，反而对那种奋斗过程充满了恐惧，眼见父辈年轻时那么辛苦，到老了也没获得什么本质跃迁，社会的阶层固化是十分明显的，那继续一代代奋斗竞争，不如简单躺下来做个废物，当初父辈躺下那就会全家饿死，所以必须得起来干活，自己躺下也饿不死，反而能更快乐一些，为什么不呢？\n社会不孕症\n产业升级\n\n\n在非工业化时代，人口那是家庭资产。\n\n\n工业化/服务业逐步升级时代\n\n\n所需的技能要投入的教育较多。\n\n\n女性的就业机会也增多（农业偏重体力），生孩子势必影响工作。\n\n\n产业升级提出诉求高等教育比例提升。\n\n\n\n\n城市化\n东亚三国有个明显特点，大城市特别大，人多地少，搞超大城市又是效率最高的发展方式，落后（作为后起）国家没什么更好的选择了。这玩意好处和毛病都很明显，城市越大，人的幸福感就越差，可又没别的办法。\n城市化后的生活压力更大（城市的层级也比农村复杂100倍，一个公司都分很多层，不似农村族群中那般简单，公共资源也会依据优劣分出很多个等级，激烈的资源争夺，拼尽心力），教育竞争伴随也升级，房产支出也是一重大山。当今的时代社会薅赤贫线下-富豪线间的人的羊毛太厉害，可劲的薅，个人奋斗又艰难，养娃负债味道明显，对生活质量有影响。经济储备不行的对多生自然望而却步，晚生代替早生。晚育在代际上100年内可能就导致少一代人，其实影响是很巨大的。\n\n待高教育人群常期待的经济稳定，家庭稳定，能照顾小孩状态达成时，一般已熬到一个较大的晚育年纪，年纪越大做决定更审慎(针对养娃负债)\n\n\n现今社会对于普通人来说，养娃能投入社会的周期拉长，加之标准提高【贫富差距拉大】，养孩子属于投资，投资必然会抑制消费，两口子追求诗和远方的心态就会变化，报个兴趣班吧，花这个钱不心疼。教育是赤裸裸的军备竞赛，长达十几年，足把父母整个中青年全耗进去，消耗战想想都虚，愿意操盘的就少了。东亚家庭生几个孩子对父母的生活质量是决定性打击（城里人生孩子几乎要他们搭上所有的一切），干脆不玩了，生下来就得养，少生的趋势是自然趋势。\n\n高等教育的两面刃\n教育把生育年龄大幅往后延伸，且教育让所有人都痛苦不堪，绝大部分人读书的过程并不是什么愉快的体验，等到自己长大了，要生孩子了，想想就精神上打一哆嗦。\n女性受教育水平提高，也更关注个人独立的此生体验，不愿意多生多养。\n\n军备竞赛\n\n81年生的人，5%接受了本科教育，千分之八读了硕士，99年出生的人，23%的人都上了本科，3.5%读了硕士\n48%的家庭教育支出占了家庭支出的40%以上\n\n社会变革和女性觉醒\n女性社会地位提升是一个不容忽视的因素，随着女性主义思想的传播，越来越多的女性开始反思传统，婚姻制度中存在的不平等问题。且随着教育水平的提高和职业机会的增加，女性有了更多自主选择权，可通过工作获得经济独立不再依赖婚姻维持生活，因此许多女性选择推迟婚姻，甚至放弃婚姻，来追求事业和个人生活的自由。\n噫吁嚱\n这代人经历史上最快的现代化和城市化，翠花和狗蛋就成了写字楼里疲惫的mary和tony，悬殊的身份转换，还要尽快的成家立业，真的很不容易，时代的必然。\n\n从遗传学上看，你的后代越少，你投入的精力越大，你必须保证他成功，否则基因就断了。\n上一代人还没做好准备，孩子已经噼里啪啦就过去了，或者多了没有精力分配去管。\n\n婚姻是为了稳定社会关系发展和繁殖后代的产物，和人口及养老息息相关，结不结婚是个人选择，个人自由应该支持。但任何的自由都是有代价的。如果一项自由没有相对应的代价，那就说明我们的政策有问题。许多年轻人不愿意结婚，只是一种既定社会经济条件下的趋利避害。这就像一个游戏，运营不好慢慢就没人了。\n上一辈人把世界玩废，种的断子绝孙的因，自然得断子绝孙的果。年轻人人间清醒，直接不玩，不受束缚。N 年后的历史书，会轻飘飘的写到：我们走了一些弯路，于是很多人丢了命，很多人误了青春，很多了废了一生。\n人不愿意生育的根本是突然意识到自己好像不是人，意识到自己和那些取得成绩的人不是一个物种，突然认为自己可能是数字。生殖行为只是天性或者受到社会某种力量推动而完成的行为，他的生育是一个社会希望的结果，却跟自身无关。他认为这个阶段只会给自己生下下一个奴隶，这个奴隶一辈子也不会意识到自己在干什么，不仅不会改变自己的处境，且还会空泛的幻想自己有美好的未来，然后被他人所利用。进而消失生育的欲望，甚至认为这件事情意义不大。\n\n晚婚成为普遍现象，我国乡村25至29岁人群未婚率近5成，城市30岁人群未婚率超3成\n\n\n\n\n年龄\n城市\n镇\n乡村\n\n\n\n\n25-29\n56.9%\n44.6%\n47.4%\n\n\n25\n77%\n63.1%\n66.5%\n\n\n26\n67.4%\n56.1%\n54.6%\n\n\n27\n57.5%\n45.7%\n48.7%\n\n\n28\n48.6%\n36.1%\n39.2%\n\n\n29\n38.1%\n29%\n31.9%\n\n\n30-34\n20%\n14.1%\n19.3%\n\n\n30\n30.7%\n22%\n27.7%\n\n\n31\n26.3%\n17.8%\n24.4%\n\n\n32\n20.2%\n14.1%\n18.2%\n\n\n33\n14.6%\n10.6%\n15.3%\n\n\n34\n12.4%\n8.8%\n13.4%\n\n\n35-39\n8.3%\n5.9%\n9.4%\n\n\n35\n10.3%\n7.9%\n12%\n\n\n36\n9%\n7%\n9.9%\n\n\n37\n8.2%\n5.5%\n8.6%\n\n\n38\n7.0%\n4.6%\n8.1%\n\n\n39\n6.2%\n3.9%\n7.4%\n\n\n\n在东亚或我国里，生的少后，导致父母对孩子更想尽责，孩子的压力也同样山大。传统的孝道导致儿女（对下辈是父母）紧张，没有宗教信仰导致还是有一点点自私（在上帝面前还有一点点义务），低生育陷阱在中国不好爬出。\n\n欧美的一些反例：一批心理比较坚强独立的人（当然一般经济条件也过得去）甚至会表现出too much love，收养的小孩都不少。还是经济水平和随之而来的心理态度的影响，毕竟原生家庭状况对青少年的成长影响不容忽视。\n\n人性常态\n\n\n旧社会，很多女人宁当豪强妾，不做布衣妻。\n\n\n解放后成立了婚姻法，实行一夫一妻，目的就是让底层人的布衣都能找到媳妇。一段时间是解决了问题\n\n\n但刚过去几十年，现在乡镇光棍成堆，城市剩女成云。\n\n\n从春秋战国到现在，人性没有发生实质性改变。还是宁可当剩女，不做布衣妻，时代变了又变，但人性始终没变。\n经济使然\n婚姻制度存在的时间，远比你以为的要短。婚姻其实是个复杂的问题，里面感情反而最不重要，经济才是重点\n\n一个部落所有人紧密团结尚且捉襟见肘，把大家分割成两两组合的小家庭，不就更活不下去了？\n生产力的发展促成了婚姻的存在，相当于两个公司合股，这样就可以调动更多的资源，进一步发展生产力。这时的婚姻不是两个人的事情，而是两个家族的事情。\n近现代，虽然还叫婚姻，但又完全不是一回事了。\n\n现代婚姻制度强调自由恋爱，已经从原来两个家族的合股变成了两个人的合作，至少家族因素的占比已经大大降低。为什么能允许如此零散的组织形式出现？\n还是因为生产力进一步发展，两个人合作就可以生存和繁衍了，所以用不着其他人掺和，自己做主反而效率最高。\n时间来到当下，人们逐渐发现，这种两个人合作的模式也开始变得多余了。收入的提高，社会保障的健全，商品的极大丰富……这些都使得个人并不需要与任何人合作就可以过上舒服日子。既然日子可以过得舒服，那为什么还要去找一个人结婚？\n两个人的合作有沟通成本，一旦发现这种成本并无必要，人们自然要把它砍掉。婚姻对于满足生存而言成了负分，剩下唯一的维系就只是繁殖。人工授精甚至试管婴儿，都比婚姻的成本低得多。一位单身妈妈养育一个孩子的难度也不是无法承受。既然生存和繁衍都有了成本更低的解决方案，为什么还要结婚呢？\n纵观世界\n进入二十一世纪以来，婚姻制度就已经开始崩塌了，从发达国家开始，中国只是一个后来者。随着生产力的发展，这种趋势已经势不可挡。用不了多久，人类社会会演化出全新的组织形式，更加自由也更加无依无靠。作为社会性动物 ，人与人之间的交流并不只是单纯为了合作赚钱，交流本身也是刚需。\n\n\n\n国家\n30-34岁男性未婚比例\n30-34岁女性未婚比例\n数据年份\n\n\n\n\n意大利\n72.16%\n54.65%\n2020\n\n\n法国\n68.76%\n58.94%\n2017\n\n\n德国\n66.19%\n50.82%\n2020\n\n\n韩国\n55.83%\n37.53%\n2015\n\n\n英国\n54.90%\n44.13%\n2011\n\n\n日本\n44.74%\n33.59%\n2015\n\n\n美国\n43.19%\n33.14%\n2012\n\n\n加拿大\n37.56%\n27.98%\n2020\n\n\n中国\n18.16%\n8.70%\n2019\n\n\n\n\n中国大龄男性和女性未婚比例低于绝大多数发达国家，但也在直追而去\n\n当社会越来越原子化，人们需要一种新的组织形式来满足这种刚需。猜测这种组织不以利益为纽带，而是以兴趣为纽带。大家各自赚各自的钱，然后大家凑钱一块儿玩。\n自我淘汰\n\n20-29 岁单身男性比同龄女性多 2260w\n出自《中国统计年鉴2024》，2023 年抽样调查，中国未婚人数突破 2.34 亿（离异，丧偶不属于未婚）\n25-29 的适婚青年中，有一半尚未结婚\n\n剩男和剩女的错配，从空间上根本不在一个地方。剩女几乎都集中于一线城市，越下沉越少，剩男情况刚好相反，越下沉越多。\n\n上等男配了上等女\n中等男配了下等女\n因此下等男就没人要了。中等女则是高不成低不就。\n\n光棍，就是高不成低不就。男的是，女的也是。一辈子光棍和一辈子剩女，没有后代，他们身上的基因就会被淘汰，从这会角度来说，这是好事，这个世界只有懂得平衡理想和现实的人才有资格拥有后代，才有资格把身上的基因传宗接代下去，从生物进化角度来说，就是因为有这样那样的缺陷，比如性格缺陷，所以他们就应该被淘汰。\n国际婚姻\n如果想解决剩男问题，建议彻底开放国际婚姻，给国内剩男多一个出路。漂亮国也执行这样的策略，结婚发绿卡，也就是底层男性能变相给出彩礼。随着一带一路的发展，那里的女性都是中国男性的结婚对象，男多女少的问题是有解决办法的，中国男儿应志在四方。\n人口红利\n人口下降当然有坏处（人口结构），但也预示着一个更加尊重劳动者的时代（这才是更加健康更加长久的道路），说到底人口红利是谁的红利，作为供给侧的三大因素之一（劳动力，效率提高，资本）是“老板”的红利，而不是劳动者的红利。\n去欧美的人为什么不愿意回来，其实一个原因也是国内太卷了。不能太过习惯长期依赖压榨式的发展，初期底子弱没选择，到了一定程度，必须要做调整，马太效应+长期的奋斗也吓退一部分育龄的年轻人。也有人被压榨出斯德哥尔摩综合症了，总觉得不搞血汗工厂，中国经济就会垮塌。\n\n分配有问题，其实还是劳动阶层互相竞争，自己把价格打了下来。\n艰苦奋斗不是目的，目的是用一代的艰苦换取后来人不那么艰苦。\n\n人口红利固然有吸引力，但没人想自己的孩子生活在一个依赖人口红利的国家。这样的生活，经历一代人就够了。改善民生是最重要的最正义的。\n舍不得与当前的对策\n\n一句游戏行业的戏谑调侃：当一个游戏策划不行、氪金力度又大，我们一般是不会推荐新玩家入坑的。更要命的是，别人带新玩家入坑，多少有点福利（比如推荐奖励，师徒奖励）好家伙，这场游戏，你还要给新玩家挪一点本就不多，也不高级的装备\n\n生孩子的人过得很惨会使得中立区的人倒向不生，也看到政府想在这方面做点动作，又舍不得钱，因为它认为社会本身是分层的，投入过度了不是浪费么。政府看到的是入不敷出，看不到的是暂无法量化的群体痛苦。\n\n时代把红利发给依一些人，必然要以另一些人为代价。\n盛世的纸醉金迷，从来不是普通人的生活状态，那只是既得利益者的日常。就好像，我们的民国时期，自由，开放，才子佳人辈出。那是大地主，大军阀，大资本的好时代，却是无数个闰土的坏时代。\n\n生育观往往是长期的生活经历形成的，不是你几句话就能改变的，更不是仅靠宣传能搞定的。出生率是“沉默的大多数”给出的答案。\n政府先拿教培开刀，软柿子还没绑定金融风险，下一步就是找城市试点新加坡模式。房地产的杠杆已经养成，只能慢慢通过边调经济结构边等技术突破时间换空间来降。\n存地失人，人地皆失。存人失地，人地皆存。对一个国家而言，这笔买卖肯定是赚的。\n\n很多人有固定思维，觉得日本是泡沫破裂后，滑入失去的30年，才导致生育率降低。其实恰恰相反，早从70年代，日本告诉城镇化起，出生率就开始下滑，尤其在85-90年，所谓的黄金时期（基尼系数飙升），出生率下滑得最为厉害，简直要血崩。相反主动刺破泡沫后，日本的生育率下滑的趋势，还放缓了\n\n消费主义是精神思想\n工业化和大城市本身就带着避孕效果，这跟内里哲学消费主义是契合的，放弃繁衍后代（本身也是放弃储蓄和投资），放弃储蓄，好好消费，换取自己过得省心。此种消费主义观念种下去还没有洗脑逆转成功的先例。\n消费文明的十大性格\n\n东京大学经济学教授林周二在 1960 年代初提炼。日本那时在迈入万元美金时代的门槛边上\n\n\n用完即丢：如一百日元的打火机或时钟\n夸张使用：大颗的方糖，轻压即大量喷射的喷雾容器\n鼓励赠礼：情人节大拍卖，父亲节大拍卖\n鼓励收集：洋酒瓶或大全集画刊等\n配件产品：照相机的外拍皮套等\n制造入门机会：读书周或蛀牙防治日等\n单一功能化：专用维他命，一周七日换穿内裤等\n副用品化：第二个家或第二台车\n备用品化：备胎或灯泡等消耗品，摄影底片等可囤积品\n旧款式化：就算还能用，也要让消费者认为太旧了\n\n互联网揭开的绝望感\n互联网的透明化在这一波中起了很大的推手作用，因为穷不穷其实是个观念，当大家不觉得自己穷的时候就不那么穷了，原来不知道自己吃的是饲料（社会阶层一直都存在，只是以前不太知道，全靠想象。本来觉得自己过得还不错，一对比，发现自己是在生存线上徘徊），现在不少人直接崩溃了。让我们让看看这些让人认清阶层差距的金句，简直有毒。\n\n奋斗一辈子赶不上别人的起点\n你的努力在门第面前不堪一击\n免费玩家就是人民币玩家的道具\n龙生龙，凤生凤，劳动力的孩子还在劳动\n\n人对痛苦承受能力很强，但对精神上的无助和失去控制力的感觉很痛苦。很多人都甚至有点想删档卸载游戏的冲动或者干脆放弃了打怪升级，只想安安静静的做个废物，更别提再生一代受二茬苦了。米兰昆德拉从他的视角讲：生小孩的前提是，你已经证明了人生是快乐的。当有人发现自己深陷从小成绩、长大钞票、老了打针吃药的既定模式中，浑浑噩噩只是廉价劳动力而已时，自己的孩子竟然在重复自己的路，自然生育的意愿会下降。\n\n普通人可能是这样看的。不因自己没钱，还因别人太有钱。人与人之间的差距太大了，导致心理压力太大，人毕竟不患寡而患不均。父母那一辈毕竟大家都穷。没有钱，还看得见别人有钱人的生活，他自己都不乐意活着，哪有生育的欲望，这就是不仅二胎搞不上去，连一胎都在下滑的原因。\n起跑线不一样，有含金汤匙出生的，有纠结尿布还是尿片的，眼瞅着绝对会输的比赛，就没有人愿意投入精力去打，生孩子当做一个游戏，玩这个游戏的人就跟《绝地求生》在线人数一样，迅速暴跌。这不是重在参与的问题，参与的代价太大了，要赔上一代人甚至两代人的心血，赌注太大，胜算太低。\n完全丁克也没有那么多人敢，但生二胎还真没那么多人敢。\n\n房价是绝望感的一部分，而不是决定因素。鹤岗房子都地板价了，也没听说人口暴涨吧。\n新世代人群特征\n上一代的老者都会对新生辈们深感看不上，虽近现代的互联网有替年轻人不断上位的力量，但丝毫不影响每一代的年轻人们在成长阶段被冠以XX代的称谓，且多数在早期都是具有负面的含义，虽这些概念来自西方，迅速被善于学习的中国人移植套用，不乏常见于笔端。\nX时代\n1965-1980年出生的人，他们在80年代长大，是未知，迷茫的一代人\nY世代\n1980-1995年出生的人，经历了电脑和因特网的迅速普及，由此形成了与X世代截然不同的生活态度和价值观，他们大多自信、乐观、坦率、有主见，见识广\n Z世代\n1995-2010年出生的人，是数字时代的原住民，互联网和数码产品是他们与生俱来及日常生活的一部分。在技术革命推动下，Z世代生活方式发生了质的变化，他们性格更加独立，更加关注人生的体验感，同时也更加懂得去挖掘最好的价值和服务。会为自己的热爱倾注感情，表达，追逐自己所爱，但同时也拥有一颗理智之心，不容易被各种纷乱的信息所动摇，显得深思熟虑而有主见。\n据国家统计局2018年数据显示，Z世代约占我国人口的19%，他们同样赶上了中国经济腾飞的时期，物质生活富足，同样是互联网的原住民。\n人口与经济拐点\n2025-2035年的就业压力还是很大的，人口红利仍在。到2045年左右，计划生育实施前的人基本去世，中国人口构成趋于稳定。\n9000后是压力不小的一代人，都说人生发财靠康波，我们现在处在互联网周期的中后段，80年代开始由美国主导进入复苏期，90年东欧剧变全世界进入经济增长爆发期，2000年后中国是传导国进入扩散期，2535岁能卡在20002010年的人都是幸福的，也就是70年代生人，他们的黄金时间处在了世界经济的高速成长期中，中国巨富基本来自这个时间段。2015年后转入互联网周期的滞涨期，2020年后就是衰退期，黄金年龄卡在20202030年是悲催的。\n下个幸福窗口的人口应该是2025~2035年出生的人，再次遇到世界经济的成长期，同时叠加中国人口的下一个合理期。从30年开始将进入新康波复苏期：\n\n复苏期基本没钱赚，好在危机后人类的预期会下降\n爆发期则会产生新的世界巨富\n扩散期会出现国家级富豪\n滞涨期只能出现炒房炒股的金融富豪\n衰退期基本前面三个都要跪。\n\n95~05年出生的人想扬眉吐气急不得，先要熬过这个时期，身体健康是首要任务，否则机会到时候出现了你都没力气捡。\n躺平\n躺平换个词也可以叫做非暴力不合作，但其实是躺平不了的，生活不会因为你躺平就不找你麻烦，日本的平成废柴是因为其父辈没躺平，人均GDP在哪里。\n躺平的解读\n社会资源的不平衡配置导致社会躺平现象的出现（躺赢的太多），躺平其实是社会发展规律中的环节（阶段的一种必然），对于社会分层和变革还是会产生巨大影响。\n\n从某种层度上，各个国家都出现过躺平阶段，包括美国的嬉皮士年代你可以看作是躺平的一种（make love not war），还是深刻影响了美国过往几十年的历史。美丽国享受全球化高潮后当前的撕裂及对应的对外对内政策，其实也蕴含着底层新的躺平对政策和局势的影响。\n\n我国由计划迈入市场经济是一场巨大的能量释放，不过也从一个极端走向了另一个极端 (市场经济的底层是竞争，本质是资源不足)，通过市场经济运动，阶层重新划定。当前发展到与世界接轨的大高潮，学的太像，没理由你万花丛中过，就片叶不沾身，该染的麻烦少不了，就得有法治。\n在柏拉图理想国的三等论中，设想了三种阶层：情绪欲望主导型，平头百姓大多是这类（群演，劳动者），意志主导型（主演，靠品牌；有组织，军人；），理性智慧主导型（导演制片编剧，配置资源，形成结构性短缺; 顶层，制定规则）。在中产阶级陷阱这个节点上，出现底层躺平，也是一种阶层的抗争，影响不了顶层的人，最大的伤害还是小老板小中产，靠命运运气挣来的钱可能凭本事再输出去，导致社会阶层重新分配，重新划分。这也要看躺平的人能不能形成一种新的意志和理性（互联网倒是一种推手力）。\n中等收入陷阱冲突期\n躺平出现在出现在中等收入陷阱这个时点上，其实也是有一定的原因的，迈到这个节点，原来的发展模式势必已到强弩之末，随之而来的社会精神也与贫穷起始点有很大的不一样，君可见每一个国家在迈入万元美金时代（中等收入陷阱）时，都免不了面对大量的国内冲突转型。\n\n举例来说现有的发达国家在中等收入阶段遭遇的问题，是由传统的垄断资本主义向福利资本主义的社会转型，前期的经济高速增长使得原始资本主义的弊端暴露无遗，经济周期轮回，政治腐败，社会矛盾尖锐，冲突加剧等问题集中凸显。在变革基础上实现市场，国家与社会之间的良性互动制度，其实质是政治现代化为核心的社会转型。\n但东亚的几个国家和西方还是有所不同，其中日韩的财阀垄断性显得更加固化，过往的发达国家转型期也还没有互联网，互联网的信息流动也是新形态，真正能破局还是靠产业升级迈过这道坎，但社会改良是个保健因素。不能转型成福利资本主义或许就等价迈不出这个坎儿了（歇菜）。\n\n在此方面，有两篇文章值得一看\n\n美国当年如何跨过中等收入陷阱\n人均GDP1万美金时都发生了什么\n\n网络上这些天关于这个议题，热闹非凡，但三观正的态度是：\n\n愿意躺平的躺平，愿意站着的站着，愿意攀登的攀登，就是不跪\n\n养老\n在祖传智慧中『养儿防老』是最实际的选择，年轻人未曾老过，所以对养老没有足够的认识，老人真如同孩子一样，需要各种照顾。现在各种看起来很美好的养老方案，其实都不如养儿防老。你想着你不婚，让别人来给你服务，也是一种理想化。养老服务供不应求，年轻人奇货可居，人工智能赡养可能还有些遥远，就算人工智能陪护出来了，从突破性创造到批量化大规模生产的商业化运用，还有一段不断降成本的漫长道路。\n更重要的是这个世界不允许那些不承担家庭和生育责任的人拥有美好的晚年，因为只赚钱不养育这是动摇国家存在根基的，繁衍规模，社会人口是整体进化和迭代是和社会产业升级间匹配的。所以不可能出现单纯有钱就能很好养老的环境这种现象。因为这个世界任何国家都不会允许“你只安心赚钱而不承担社会责任”，这是这个世界上集体的意志和人心不允许。你年轻时爽的一批，不用带小孩，晚年还能过得比我们好，这件事情在社会制度设置上一定会被杜绝。\n生孩子的赔率游戏\n2020年儿童节前一天，计划生育三胎放开了，网络上又是一片热议。大家多数觉得此政策没什么用。对于顶层的人，社会抚养费并不是他们担心的，确实没什么利好意义。但对于底层的人，这个政策还是有促进作用的。毕竟过去的一年里，二孩的出生量是远大于一孩的，正所谓让底层有生育冲动的人不至于受到掣肘。\n生三胎这事，其实在国家的大数据里，就没指望城市人群或中产（中产连一胎都不想生），是互联网的人以为自己是主角的自嗨，好像这个政策是给自己看的，包括配套措施是要为自己设的，天真，在大数据面前，so naive\n\n生二胎排名前十的基本是中西，西南部省份，偏远地区二胎数妥妥超过大城市。中间指望不上，希望都在头尾。\n\n头部不消多说，他们一直愿意多生，这对他们来说是一个赢面更大的赔率游戏。中产生一个败家子，老底都能赔光，富人不用担心，假如出一两个人才，不但能传承财富，还能开疆拓土。\n你去看看江南士族的族谱，在富不过三代的规律下，那些富过很多代的江南大族是如何实现的？其实就是多生孩子，注重培养，每一代都能出一些政商人才，靠宗族血缘相互扶持，保证家族绵延不绝。\n\n韩国曾经也实施过计划生育，当前统计显示韩国有孩子家庭31%两个孩子，14%三个孩子，但是全国合计生育率0.98，全球最低，唯一生育率不足1。（日本也是一种类型，生三孩的家庭和生一孩的家庭一样多，问题是有近30%的人选择不生或不婚）\n6成年轻人没能力生，sigh。负面影响是没有穷二代来伺候有钱人，开出的解药是移民，不给同等国民待遇，榨干了哪来哪去。\n韩国最有经济条件的人口基数扩大了，达尔文主义的物竞天择。家族企业的合法继承问题也迎刃而解，生的多，独生碰到废柴的风险也冲销下降，摆脱外来职业经理人对企业的控制。\n\n偏远地区还有重男轻女的思想，且小地方人口流失，公立学校都招不满学生，职场压力没那么大，生三胎的组里较小。农村多生孩子其实也是赔率游戏，赢面虽不大（其实还是上升了），但万一出了人才，一大家子可以跟着脱贫，基本来说不会变的更差。\n人类种群的混沌自限\n低生育是全球的命题，不搞计划生育作业不多的国度也比之前差，蓝星合计生育率风雨无阻下降了60年。全球大概在2050-2100年间的某一年，降到更替率之下。80年后，5条人还剩2条半，每个楼上的窗口都只有1半亮起，幼儿园空养老院满。明明这60年是人类历史上条件最优越的60年。\n老生常谈将生育率下降归结为2类原因：一种是社会性的，如竞争压力、妇女权利、社会稳定程度等；一种是自然性的，如化石燃料带来的副作用。听起来都有道理，看多了它们的材料仿佛觉得它们也是在盲人摸象。人口是一个巨大的混沌问题（非线性系统），不是那么因果直接，冥冥中或许蓝星有一个总人口天花板，具体表现为生产能力、组织能力、繁衍能力 三者到了一定程度就不会一并增长了，一个增长必然伴随着另一个的倒退。好比一个公司的管理水平、业务水平、人才规模，总会有一个是短板。\n人类族群体现出自限性的一系列症状，如莫名的战争，精子数量下降，新冠疫情。只是我们很容易将这些症状误以为原因。当人口触顶之后，除非有巨大的改变，如星际殖民或基因工程之类的，否则就难有转折，采访中马斯克提及他很担心人口这个重大本质问题，不可不说英雄眼光犀利独到。\n老鼠乌托邦&quot;行为沉沦&quot;\n在1960年代发起过一则25号宇宙实验，以小白鼠为实验动物，到实验终止仍不缺吃不缺喝的乌托邦环境崩坏，白鼠种群灭亡。社会欲望的不断丧失是实验得出的核心病症，竞争后期，所有失败的白鼠聚焦在中央，失去了斗争的能力，阶级固化严重。\n处在斗争边缘的白鼠没有力量获得竞争的胜利，无法获得任何社会资源（领地，交配权，优先权，地位等），就算实验人员能提供充足的生存资源，但社会资源无法均分，也无法控制，它们不断失去欲望，形成越来越大的失败者群体，压制欲望造成的性格的不断扭曲，出现越来越多的同性恋，只关注吃饭喝水睡觉梳毛，每天把自己打理的油光水滑。母鼠受到霸占压迫也没有公鼠保护，变得暴躁，无法同时照顾幼崽和守护巢穴，侵略性大增，甚至伤害幼崽。畸形的社会阴暗面，就是欲望受到压制的一种具体表现。这和我们当今社会，低婚育面临的问题也有一致的味道。\n结婚率下降的本质，是社会资源的分配出了问题，越来越多人无法从社会资源分配上得到公平公正的对待，就会有越来越多人选择阉割掉自己的社会欲望，而极低的社会欲望就伴随着极低的婚育率。\n中国宏观政策的钟摆正在迅速从追求效率摆向追求公平，只有社会资源分配公正透明，才是解决婚姻，人口，乃至社会问题的核心。\n普通人该有的生养觉悟\n主线游戏\n人来到这个世界到底是干啥的？绝大部分人只有两主线任务，给父母送终，把孩子养大。除了主线任务，还有无数小任务，如跑图开荒，玩玩其它副本，或者打怪升级赚金币升装备，不过这些支线任务深层来讲也是为上面两主线任务服务的。\n人生这个游戏是氪金游戏，会相对容易一丢丢，但也没容易哪里去，有钱人也会被自己的孩子折磨的不要不要的。若是装备差，金币少，还手残，这个游戏会难到你怀疑人生，现实里绝大部分人也的确在怀疑人生。一旦主线任务完成，很多人还会有茫然无措的感觉，曾经想做的事情也变得索然无味，从基因角度看，你有了后代，且后代已确认存活，这幅躯壳可能在基因的眼里，已经没有意义了。这也是绝大部分人到了 40 多变得没有了任何爱好，或者开始偏爱动作幅度较小，低功耗的东西，盘串钓鱼养鱼喝茶，不生孩子的话就是主线任务提前结束一个，人生的游戏难度一下子就降下来了。\n这样就有很多时间在这个地图上瞎溜达，初期这样很爽，可以玩的东西很多。到了40岁左右，慢慢该玩的也玩过了，很多男性出现了类似电子阳痿的症状，女性化妆旅游可能也没兴趣了。年轻时你有很多朋友，大家聚一起分外快乐，到了一定年龄大家慢慢也孤岛化了，都在操心自己的一亩三分地，互相联系也少了。约有事，聚变难。丁克到后来的普遍态度就是无聊，孩子的人生各个阶段就是你的 boss 关卡，让你痛苦，也让你有了探索感和成就感。去掉了孩子，相当于这个游戏难度凭空下降一大截，问题是如果一个游戏太简单也没啥 boss，那玩的就没啥意思了。生活变成一个大围城。\n穷人的难处\n生孩子的确会大幅提升无法消解的必须支出，这无需回避。穷人没装备金币碰到事情只能是硬抗，游戏体验要差太多，所以很多穷人家庭都是鸡飞狗跳的，尤其很多父母，压力大，挣钱少，回家后精疲力尽，对孩子自然没耐心，动不动打骂，这些孩子长大后普遍有点问题，容易陷入失败主义情绪，现在坚定不生孩子的人很多都出身贫困家庭，家庭生活对他们来说没啥好印象，纯粹是各种抱怨，语言暴力羞辱\n。\n另外，全社会都在激进地想跨越阶级，其实这是个零和博弈，90%的人最后只能吃到时代红利，智商，精力，知识水平，都不足以让自己大幅超越别人，这种情况拼命想跨越本身就是一种自我折磨，有些人觉得自己孩子应该跨越不了，所以不应带到这个世界上来，还有一些人单纯就是太想进步，往死里折腾孩子和自己，可孩子和自己一样，都是普通人，逼也没进展，代际冲突也逐步增大。目睹自己原生家庭对自己的摧残和身边人婚后的鸡飞狗跳，所以孕育越来越多不婚/不生主义者。\n最痛苦的一批就是对孩子的期望严重超过自己本来水平的人，天赋一般还使劲报课，条件普通还总想给孩子最好的，又是花钱长见识，又是各种兴趣班。\n时代对待普通人进步了\n几十年前大家都很穷，所有人都得使劲往上爬，爬慢了人生就掉坑里了，现在社会逐步走向正轨，不出头也没那么难，绝大部分好东西都能找到平替，各种传统贵重东西价格都被打下来了，贵的东西大家偶尔体验一下也都有机会，很多东西也彻底平权了，你跟富豪用的苹果手机也是一样的。孩子学习不好，不好就不好呗，反正绝大多数人都不好，这也是排位赛这种零和博弈的必然结果，现在大家都摊上好时代了，没必要那么焦虑。放下焦虑，重新看这个世界，其实也就那样。尽量去顺其自然，不去折腾远远超过自己能力的东西，痛苦感会少太多，顿觉天地宽。\n生育不在于该不该，而是能否看清人生这个游戏的于自己的真实难度，能否接受并管理好养育孩子可能带来的巨大挑战，是否在为虚幻的目标徒增痛苦呢，比如强迫阶级跃升，总是盯着自己根本达不到的目标，用自己做不到的事情来折磨自己，陷入各种消费陷阱而不自知，财务状态一塌糊涂。绝大多数都是观念上的痛苦，找到内心的平静最重要，过好自己的人生版本。\n信息终是越辨越明！\n如题\n参考信息\n1.毕马威 从七普看中国人口变化的趋势和机遇 ↩2.网易 完整的“七普”人口数据，终于来了！  ↩3.知乎 预测2100年中国会有多少人口 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["灰犀牛"]},{"title":"你的灯亮着吗","url":"/%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%81%AF%E4%BA%AE%E7%9D%80%E5%90%97.html","content":"\n\n整本书中有很多故事举例，本就为问题解决者所写，薄薄一本，通透练达，没看这本书的时候总奇怪到底为什么取这个书名，看看故事就明白了\n\n引子故事\n问题\n瑞士日内瓦湖上的山脉中，建成了很长的汽车隧道，从隧道东出口再往400米，就是世界上风景最优美的俯瞰日内瓦湖的度假胜地，每天都有成千上万的游客在此处欣赏美景，同时，每天当着几百名神清气爽的游客返回他们的汽车时，都会有十来个（甚至更多）的人们收到一份意外的惊喜：汽车也跟着放松了（电池没电了）——因为他们在放松之余，忘记关掉车灯！\n解决者出场\n怎么着？只能打911，叫交警过来帮忙呗。为此，游客们这愉快的心情都瞬间化为乌有，“去了日内瓦湖，车都开不走了”。谁让你这么设计的，锅工程师你扛了吧！经过一系列的调研，工程师想出了N个他认为可行的办法来：\n\n\n可以在尽头挂一块牌，写上：关掉车灯。然而，如果夜间行走的人也关掉车灯，这样真的好吗？\n\n\n他可以装傻，啥也不知道，就让这些“意外”继续上演。然而，这样差评更多，到问责的时候，就会背上“豆腐渣工程”的骂名！\n\n\n他可以在风景俯瞰处建一个充电桩，但是这要不要成本的？还有就是充电桩出故障时，挨骂挨得更多呢！\n\n\n他可以把充电桩承包给私人，然后人家开起小卖部来，什么臭豆腐、黄酒奶茶、茴香豆都在卖起来，还拉动GDP增长呢！但是，这样景区就变成了商业化，游客们的体验更糟糕了。\n\n\n他在隧道尽头挂一块牌即可。想来想去，还是这个办法最靠谱！\n\n\n解决方案出场\n\n这张牌写什么内容比较好呢？咱们来一段简约的提示吧：（对于计算机来说，即使是再微小的一步也必须用琐碎的细节表示出来）\n\n\n如果这是白天，并且如果您的车灯开着，那么请熄灭车灯；\n\n\n如果天色已晚，并且如果您的车灯没开，那么请打开车灯；\n\n\n如果这是白天，并且如果您的车灯没开，那么就不用打开；\n\n\n如果天色已晚，并且如果您的车灯开着，那么就不用关灯。\n\n\n各位读者，你看蒙了吗？如果这张牌挂在隧道口提醒司机们，他们的时速至少60，如果盯着这个指示牌来看，读完这个指示牌，汽车早就飞过护栏，并且咕噜咕噜地沉到湖底了——这根本没办法实质性解决问题！还可以做得更好一点吗？\n作为一个老司机，他们能通过考试，并且久经各种路况的考验，就不可能是彻头彻尾的傻瓜，他们所需要的，只是隧道尽头加一块牌，写上几个字：\n“你的灯亮着吗？“\n如果他们连理解这种提醒的能力都没有，那么他们遇到的问题就不只是电池没电这么简单了。一个小小的标牌，就完美的解决了这个问题。因为这条信息足够短，所以标牌上可以用多种语言表达出来，包括英文、法文、德文、中文……\nAfter 故事\n引子故事有点长，结合书里的其它一众故事引申出来的道理才是书本的核心。\n面对问题不要迷路\n\n\n不要把人们的解决方法认为是问题的定义。\n\n\n每一种解决方法都会带来新问题。\n\n\n问题最难处理的那一部分恰恰是去意识到它们的存在。\n\n\n或许还可以改变问题的表述来获得不同的解决办法。\n\n\n当你沉迷于寻找问题定义和解决方法时，不要忘记随时都回头看看，看看自己是不是已经迷路了。\n\n\n与世界上其它动物相比，人类恐怕是最多变的。可惜我们碰到的绝大多数问题都离不开这种动物，甚至往往都是源于这种动物。他们不止多变，还多疑，自私，自以为是。\n正视问题\n在这个时候，大师提醒我们：\n1.当别人能很好的解决自己的问题的时候，千万不要越俎代庖（如果这是他们的麻烦，就让它成为他们的麻烦。）\n2.当某人能解决这个问题，但他本人却不会碰到这个问题时，你要做的第一件事情就是让他也感受到这一问题\n3.不管看上去如何，很少人知道知道他要什么，直到你给了他们所想要的东西（参看Make it Worse）\n4.甚至，事实上，没多少人真希望他的问题被解决\n缺经验的解决者怎么干？\n那些没有经验的问题解决者们，几乎无一例外，都是去匆忙的寻找解决办法，而不是去给要解决的问题下定义。\n即使是有经验的解决者，在社会压力要求他匆忙做决定的时候，也很容易屈服。这样，他们会找到很多解决办法，但未必适合手头这个问题，当一个人努力让别人接受他赞成的解决办法时，总是指责别人太顽固，而不是说对方的观点其实是可以替代的\n经验可贵，常识无价\n如果对问题没有一定的常识，那么解决办法几乎毫无疑问不是针对这一被误解的问题。通常，它就变成那个声音最高或口才最好的人所认为的问题的解决方案了，或者，是那个最有钱的人的认为的问题了。\n让问题起舞\n在某些时候某些人期望的是尽量去减少抱怨，犹如房东。如果抱怨永远不被统计出来，而仅仅是对着空气嘟囔，他也许可以通过不理睬来解决他的问题，鬼知道呢，他或许认为这本就是一个无中生有的问题。\nMake it Worse\n有时候如果你想找到一个问题的解决办法，试试“让情况变得更糟”，这个不好理解，我们可以从这个角度看待这句话，给你一个角度看当前的问题是不是真正的问题。犹如，例子中，有人在镜子上涂鸦，有人抱怨的问题。其实并不是乱涂乱画的问题，是拙劣和没有想象力的绘画的问题，停下来照镜子和停下来欣赏涂鸦并没有区别，只要他们不觉得乏味，时间过得慢就行\n尾声\n给问题下一个哲学定义\n问题其实就是你期望的东西和你体验的东西之间的差别。要么改变期望，要么改变体验。\n作者的感触\n解决问题不会是一个道德上中立的的行为，所以首先对自己要真诚。This above all, to thine own self be true [from 莎士比亚之哈姆雷特]\n如果在对技术的使用和构建过程中没有赋予足够的人文方面的重视，技术将毫无价值，甚至是危险的（technology is worthless even dangerous if we don’t pay attention to the human aspects of both its use and its onstruction）\n还有一些摘录，如作序者的骚柔，作者的人际警言，觉得已不再符合自己2020年时的胃口，想回顾看传送门在此\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["方法论"]},{"title":"保险业的监管与改革","url":"/%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E4%B8%8E%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9.html","content":"\n保险业的监管\n代理人模式怎么玩？\n新代理头两个月，可通过自保和近保完成考核目标，然后后续的业务开展仍然很艰难，无论是短期获取陌生客户的信任，还是熟练掌握销售的心理和技巧，都非一日之功。\n怪圈：增员即销售\n相较于保险业务的难开展，增员似乎变成更简单更稳定的赚钱方式。保险公司的招聘策略堪称”完美犯罪“，不断招收新人，即使你只待了一个月，也可能为公司带来几单生意，没有底薪，一进一出，公司稳赚不赔，留下来的人往往成为招募新人的主力军。”看，我就是从底层爬上来的！你也可以“，传销式的激励，让整个系统像滚雪球一样越滚越大。\n新代理人被吸引入职是看中保险未来发展空间大，前端业务容易开展，但实际入职后发现前端业务开展并不容易，因此多数代理人都将增员并入自己的工作范畴，甚至有的代理人不做保险经纪业务而专门做增员工作。\n困顿\n\n上升飞轮\n随着代理人数量激增，保险下沉速度随之加快，业务逐渐达到阶段性瓶颈。\n下降飞轮\n保险姓保–人均产能下降\n市场主流产品回归到了重疾医疗等保障产品，这类产品的销售非常考验代理人的基本功，导致人均件数下降。人均产能下降，这意味着代理人收入的下降。\n成长周期长–其它行业抢人\n在快递和外卖行业，新人只要努力，是可以快速实现月入过万的，但在保险业非常困难。缘故转化完之后，没有新客户来源，收入就很难维持。这就是来自其它行业的人力竞争。\n为何代理人选择离开？过去5年，代理人的平均月工资为3500元，仅为社会平均工资的78%。要知道，同期快递员的平均工资从4500元涨到6000元，代理人宁愿去送外卖、跑快递，也不想卖保险了。《中国保险中介市场生态白皮书》显示，月收入在1万元以下的保险营销员占比超过了61.5%。其中，月收入在3001元-6000元的保险营销员占比最高，达到了26.42%。当时代的列车撞倒你的时候，是不会和你说一声对不起的。\n\n增员受阻\n同时，各大招聘网站加强了对于保险代理人的监管，禁止代理人以个人名义展开招聘，增员难度骤增，发展团队也没那么挣钱了（增员有1000-2000元增员奖励），代理人陆续选择离职。\n不仅代理人数量在减少，代理人活动率（当月出单代理人占比）也在持续下滑。全行业基本都是类似的趋势。\n代理人加速离职同时带来保单继续率下滑，13个月还是25个月的保单继续率还在持续下滑。对保险公司而言，长险保单前两年是不挣钱的，退保伤害很大，13/25保单继续率表明新保单续期质量。正常情况下，保单继续率会维持在90%左右，平安的保单继续率近三年持续下滑，与代理人离职时将自己凑业绩的“自保件”退掉有关。\n\n在跟保险机构多次交流中经常陷入增员话题，可发现，整个行业需要一次大改革，大洗牌，在一些思路上要有大转变，代理人自身也是迷茫的。\n\n宏观数据分析\n寿险的真实客观主客群体0-50岁，国内50岁以下人群在下滑态势中。\n寿险潜在客户阶段性饱和，突破需配合宏观经济。保守估计，近5年做过寿险代理人的人群达到5000w。假设向周边10个人推销过保险，那么至少有5亿人接触过保险产品或理念。开拓新客户的难度自然不小。房贷很高没有多余的钱买保险，个人及家庭收入未能如预期增长，寿险在受众支出决策的优先级必定越发靠后。\n\n2014年代理人数量325w人，5年后的2019年，这个数字来到912w，达到顶峰。在保险代理人飙升的时间里，从2013到2020年，个人保险保费收入同比增长217.2%，任何事物都有周期，根据《2024中国保险发展报告》，截至2023年底，代理人数量已减至281.34w，相比2019年下降了69%。超过600w代理人，离开了这个行业，结合流动，实际洗牌的更多点。\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"个人代理人数量（万）\"\n    x-axis [2014,2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023]\n    y-axis \"数量 (w)\" 0 --> 1000\n    bar [325,471, 657, 807, 871, 912, 843, 591, 571, 281]\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"个人代理人数量波动率\"\n    x-axis [2014,2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023]\n    y-axis \"变化率\" -60 --> 60\n    line [12.1,44.9, 39.6, 22.8, 7.9, 4.7, -7.6, -29.9, -3.4, -50.7]\n寒风\n保险行业经历大洗牌，多家险企裁员超7万人，平安减员最多。\n在2024基金，券商，银行纷纷降薪的当口，保险行业薪酬结构相对稳定，很重要的原因，是保险行业员工收入大部分来自提成。保险行业躲过了降薪，却躲不过缩编。2023年7家上市险企合计在职员工76.21w，较22年减少超7w人，同比下降8.59%。此中最突出的是平安，2023年在职员工28.88w（业态多元，不仅含保险子公司的员工），相较22年34.42w下降16.12%，减员达5.5w人。按报告解读，减员最多的是科技类业务员工，其次是保险业务类员工。2018年平安保险类业务在职员工数量为23.28w，到了2023年已变成15.15w，五年下降了8.13w人。\n\n平安集团员工变化（2022~2023）\n\n\n\n\n分类\n2022\n2023\n人员变化\n\n\n\n\n保险类员工\n170053\n\n-18569\n\n\n银行类\n\n43119\n-1088\n\n\n资管类\n19651\n18833\n-818\n\n\n科技类\n93680\n\n\n\n\n其它员工\n16632\n19886\n+3254\n\n\n\n代理人流失\n截至2024年7.1日，共有848家保险分支机构退出市场。其中，人身险公司新设36家分支机构，退出520家，净退出484家。\n截至23年底，平安寿险及健康险月均代理人数量为35.6w，同比下降26%；个人寿险代理人34.7w，同比下降22%\n目光回看2018年，平安寿险代理人规模高达141.74w，如今已减少75%以上\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            titleColor: \"#ff0000\"\n---\n xychart-beta\n    title \"平安人寿个人代理人数量（万）\"\n    x-axis [2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023]\n    y-axis \"数量 (w)\" 0 --> 150\n    bar [86.99, 111.08, 138.6, 141.74, 116.69, 102.38, 60.03, 44.5, 34.7]\n    line [86.99, 111.08, 138.6, 141.74, 116.69, 102.38, 60.03, 44.5, 34.7]\n营运利润下降\n还是以平安举例，在投资方面，保险资金投资组合规模超过4.72w亿，2023年增长了9%，但报告期内寿险及健康险业务短期投资波动扣亏了343亿。这些投资的底层资产，无论是楼市还是股市，都不是好打的牌。结合全国经济的增长率和人口状况，虽23保费6019.34亿还增长了10.85%，但寿险及健康险的营运利润1060.83亿，相较于2022年下降了3.4%，净利润733.91亿，下降2.8%\n从金融数据看\n\n\n\n项目\n2023年上半年（单位亿元）\n2024年上半年（单位亿元）\n变化率\n\n\n\n\n保险保费收入\n32054   收入相较22年同比增长12.54%\n35467\n4.9%\n\n\n财产险\n7206\n7442\n4.5%\n\n\n人身险\n24848\n28025\n5.1%\n\n\n保险赔付支出\n9151   支出相较22年同比增长17.8%\n12301\n33.1%\n\n\n财产险\n4103\n4500\n10.2%\n\n\n人身险\n5048\n7801\n57.4%\n\n\n\n从资金运用情况看，无论是财产险还是人身险，资金运用余额的最大头都是债券，在38%到48%之间，在股票上的直接投入都控制在6%~8%之间，24年中都是6.x%，整体年化财务投资收益率都已经跌到了2字头，不超过3%。\n收入增速和赔付增速的剪刀差\n这种情况已经持续一段时间，这个趋势在23年已经有所显现，23年保费收入5.12万亿，同步增长9.13%，赔付支出1.89万亿，同比增长21.94%。进入24年更为明显。前3个月赔付支出增长47.8%，虽增速有所降低，但一直保持在高位。赔付快速增长主要出现在人身险领域。前4个月人身险赔付支出增长68%，财产险赔付支出增长13%\n为何赔付支出会快速增长？\n\n2013年我国开启寿险费率市场化改革，引发寿险保费快速增长，而我国首先保单平均期限在十年左右，意味着当初快速增长的首先保单将会集中在近几年内到期\n应激管理部公布的数据，一季度自然灾害造成的直接经济损失为近五年之最，也会影响人身险领域的赔付支出，但不会是主因\n进入2024年，5年期以上两全保险部分到期，增额终身寿险等理财保险的”存款搬家“，也造成不少赔付增加\n疫情后医疗健康费用的增加，连带保险赔付增长。中国人寿总经算师竟然甩锅到一季度支原体流感季新冠对呼吸道感染的影响，尤其是儿童作为被保险人群体，还甩锅过度医疗，显然是掩盖真相，避免形成羊群效应\n\n这种剪刀差会持续多久？\n\n财产险赔付变化主要受到保险事故，特别是重大事故和灾害的影响\n人身险特别是寿险，过去业务高增长带来的当前赔付快速增长短期难以改变，恐怕还要持续一段时间，最少未来1~2年还将保持在较高水平，将无疑增加经营压力影响现金流，一部分也能印证为何23年平安的经营利润下滑\n\n财产险和人身险的销售比\n\n金融监管总局的数据表，总额方面，相互有些对不上。让人质疑他们表哥表姐的专业水平\n\n\n\n\n财险项目\n2024年上半年（单位亿元）\n人身险项目\n2024年上半年（单位亿元）\n\n\n\n\n财产险保费收入\n9176\n财产险保费收入\n26291\n\n\n机动车\n4311\n寿险\n21454\n\n\n责任险\n771  保险金额的大头确在这里\n意外险\n230\n\n\n农业保险\n1063\n健康险\n4607\n\n\n健康险\n1475\n\n\n\n\n意外险\n259\n\n\n\n\n其它\n1297\n\n\n\n\n\n各省的规模潜力\n\n24.9 月切片看，合计 1000 亿以上的省份和地区[3]，广东数据中摘掉未含深圳\n\n\n\n\n\n地区\n合计（亿）\n寿险\n财险\n健康险\n\n\n\n\n1\n江苏\n4637\n2961\n943\n676\n\n\n2\n广东\n4461\n2717\n933\n730\n\n\n3\n山东\n3028\n1775\n619\n590\n\n\n4\n北京\n2960\n2022\n411\n496\n\n\n5\n浙江\n2942\n1747\n700\n447\n\n\n6\n四川\n2367\n1366\n502\n461\n\n\n7\n河南\n2303\n1384\n502\n385\n\n\n8\n上海\n2268\n1400\n491\n334\n\n\n\n河北\n2017\n1146\n492\n352\n\n\n10\n湖北\n1934\n1140\n381\n386\n\n\n1\n深圳\n1591\n841\n382\n338\n\n\n12\n湖南\n1558\n883\n374\n275\n\n\n13\n安徽\n1427\n745\n413\n249\n\n\n14\n陕西\n1134\n703\n226\n189\n\n\n\n改革之举\n在不利的环境下实现突围，不仅需要壮士断腕的决心，还需要足够的耐心。友邦是个例子，2010年开展改革计划，招募高质量代理人，严格规范培训和奖励机制，当然副作用是代理人数量的下降及新业务增速下降。但三年后，终于涅槃重生，代理人数量和质量得到改善，新业务价值持续稳定增长，优秀代理人裂变若干个优秀团队，业务和增员能进行良性循环。\n平安改革迹象也很明显：低产出代理人加速出清，培养也受到重视。招募高学历，高素质代理人，查漏补缺，提高整体代理人团队的营销质量。\n若改革顺利，或将在2023年看到拐点，能观测到的先行指标是代理人数量何时企稳。若代理人数量和质量依旧在下滑，产能不足将直接导致保险新业务价值继续减少和内涵价值加速降低，进一步“杀估值”将不可避免\n平安从2019年就开始代理人制度改革，背后是行业思路的转变，从人海战术转向高质量发展。客观说，改革有一定成效，人均新业务价值在2023年大幅增长89.5%，平均工资也从2022年的7051元上涨至9813元。\n平安寿险的改革自 19 年起头一直在路上，换了几任领导，走过虚空的弯路，浪费了几年时间，随着 CEO 的荣退，新上来的年轻领导又要开始折腾了，从我的不成熟预判来看，精兵简政是一定会搞的，旧的项目要砍掉一些，但他新立的方向也大概率不靠谱，草台班子的既视感袭来，顶层仿佛同步进入了战术盲区，允许在小范围乱折腾。随着主要领导班子大量接近退休年龄（已连续荣退几位了），后几年的调整看来不会少。\n\n\n\n姓名\n性别\n出生年月\n现平寿任职\n分管业务\n入司时间\n\n\n\n\n杨峥\n男\n64.2\n党委书记，董事长，代总经理\n\n94.7\n\n\n蔡霆\n男\n85.10\n副总经理上交人力资源管理专业学士毕业\n渠道中心，产品中心，财企中心\n14.11\n\n\n胡景平\n男\n65.1\n副总经理\n个险事业部机构督导部\n93.12\n\n\n邓明辉\n男\n65.8\n副总经理，财务负责人，首席风险官\n财务部，风险管理部\n\n\n\n史伟玉\n女\n76.12\n副总经理\n运营中心，科技研发部，法律合规部，稽核监察部\n99.1\n\n\n\n看看保险姓保\n严惩误导性销售 提高全渠道人员质素\n一方面代理人不专业和离职，最终的后果都是由保险公司承担。代理人体系亟待改革，原有运转模式病入膏肓。\n过去，保险业追求高速成长，员工数量随之快速增长，员工绩效也仅仅以销售额为主要考核指标。因此，销售人员在进行产品销售时，不免出现违规现象。\n外资险企由于发展年限较长、经验较多，对于员工培训、销售行为等方面已经形成一套严格的执行方法，我国险企有望借外力完善自身体制机制。转型期，“粗放式”增长已满足不了日益变化的社会环境和监管要求，保险公司向高质量发展转变更为紧迫。\n保险中介监管全面趋严–政府网的通告\n\n事实上，由于保险公司部分业务过分依赖中介销售，导致很多时候险企在中介销售面前没有主动权。《通知》强调，保险公司应及时要求中介渠道业务主体纠正违法违规行为，且保险公司要对中介渠道业务报告内容的真实性负责，这便于帮助保险公司实现对中介业务的合规管控。\n\n十四五的调调\n“深入整治保险市场乱象”，在银保监会年初召开的2021年工作会议以及7月的全系统2021年年中工作座谈会暨纪检监察工作（电视电话）座谈会上均被提及。\n\n在毫不松懈地防范化解金融风险的背景之下，针对保险市场特别是人身险、互联网保险等重点领域的痼疾与新症，银保监会继续重拳整治违法违规行为，并且加快补齐制度短板，监管成效显著。\n\n监管部门将牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线，更好地保护消费者权益，着力提升保险业的形象与声誉。这是保险机构必须清醒认识的现实，也是接下来前行发展的正确方向。\n此篇文章讲的挺多\n18年的这篇文章也是铺垫-督促险企提升发展质量\n什么风险\n2021年以来，银保监会还因偿付能力严重不足、险资运用违规、违反“试点批复”要求等情况分别向安心财险、珠江人寿、人保健康发出监管函。\n还有这种腔调：部分人身险产品实际成为保险公司的融资通道和客户投资渠道，并没有真正的保险责任。\n看看这则险企风险评级新闻\n代理人队伍培养如何赋能\n\n\n代理人最大的需求不是工具，而是客源，纯粹的工具并不能从根本上解决问题。\n\n\n展业工具要直接嵌入到代理人的客户经营中，要在最核心的价值链中发挥作用，否则效果会大打折扣。\n\n\n代理人的培训也要优先关注最具核心价值的环节，先做主顾开拓培训，再培训销售技巧。\n\n\n次数优于金额可能较务实\n此处的问题是，大部分保险公司认为解决问题的关键在于保额提升，这个思路是对的，但用户资金既定的情况下，实操难度非常大。因此，提高人均件数是一个更好的思路。特别是互联网时代，对多数代理人来说，拓宽主顾开拓边际找到更多的准客户，比在一个客户身上卖更多保单容易。\n把代理人队伍稳住，才能实现可持续发展，包括与互联网深度结合等.\n互联网如何切入？\n产品抓手\n\n\n用客观细致的产品评测吸引更多用户\n\n\n用高标准严要求吸引优质代理人\n\n\n服务目标\n\n建立两者间高效，顺畅的桥梁，为行业降本增效\n\n\n\n代理人端解决主顾开拓问题\n\n\n消费端解决保险认知问题\n\n\n如何看待保险代理人职业通道\n保险公司会提供看似丰富的培训和支持，从产品知识到销售技巧，应有尽有。但培训的终极目标只有一个，让你尽快开始销售，为公司创造利润。是把你推向战场的最后准备，而不是真正关心你的职业发展。\n很多人相信只要熬过最初的艰难期，就能迎来丰收，这种心态就像买彩票，明知道中奖概率渺茫，还是忍不住幻想。不得不承认，有人在这个行业里找到了成功，这些”榜样“的存在，给了很多人坚持下去的动力。\n保险行业像一个多棱镜，从不同角度看，会呈现不同的景象。有机遇也有陷阱，是淘金地也是一些人望而生畏的险滩，那些真正热爱这个行业，专业敬业的保险从业者，他们不仅仅是在销售产品，更是在传递一种责任和关怀。\n如果你准备好了面对高压力，且有足够的人际资源和销售才能，那么可能是你的舞台，但如果你只是被高收入传言吸引，却没有做好充分准备，那么等待你的不会是一场美梦。\n任何行业都没有捷径可走，成功是努力，智慧和运气的结合，保险行业也不例外，可能给你带来财富，但绝不会轻易让你得到。\n参考\n1.搜狐 保险行业，四年少了600万代理人 ↩2.百度 保费赔付缘何剪刀差 ↩3.国家金融监督管理总局 24年9月全国各地区原保险业保费收入情况表 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业","金融"]},{"title":"儿童作业-言而有信","url":"/%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E4%BD%9C%E4%B8%9A-%E8%A8%80%E8%80%8C%E6%9C%89%E4%BF%A1.html","content":"\n\n学校的书信体读书练笔作业，要求家长也参与回复一封\n\n亲爱的\n你好，这段时间你一直在阅读《尼尔斯骑鹅历险记》，读的很认真和仔细，从你的这封来信中可见一斑，你不仅通读了故事，了解了尼尔斯变成小人后的各种奇遇，还对作者对瑞典的画卷般的描写印象深刻，仿佛跟着尼尔斯一同经历了这番挑战历程。你自己阅读期间，多次向我讲起尼尔斯和公鹅莫顿的历险，和狐狸斯密尔的斗智斗勇，和雁群度过的精彩时光，真是读的非常投入。\n循着你的推荐，我也快速读了这篇世界名著，将我的一些额外理解同你分享。作者借助尼尔斯变小后的特殊观察视角，向小朋友描绘出了大自然是一张会呼吸的生命网络这一温柔真谛，当我们温柔对待世界，世界就会向我们回赠整片星空。尼尔斯也在与动物朋友们的相处中完成了从捣蛋鬼到守护者的成长。这一路旅程，尼尔斯交到了最特别的朋友，大雁阿卡队长教会他勇敢，就像体育委员带着大家挑战跑步比赛；莫顿鹅和他分享最后一条小鱼干，就像同桌把新橡皮切成两半；就连曾经讨厌他的麻雀，最后也变成能说悄悄话的伙伴。这些朋友让他明白，真正的友谊不是争夺，而是像拼图那样互相需要和给予。\n人生是一场成长游戏，爸爸希望你保持住阅读的好习惯。读书世界就在眼前，不读书眼前就是世界。借助读书可做到，千年精华，尽收眼底，多样遗产，罗列手边。爸爸现在阅读书籍时也会发布读书笔记，替你将书读薄，希望你长大后能读到来自十几年前的交流问候，更快速的建立知识体系。爸爸现在正在读《历史的棋局》，看穿民族迷雾，学史明理、学史增信、学史崇德、学史力行。\n祝你\n茁壮成长，乐学趣考！\n​                                                                                                                                                                             爱你的爸爸\n​                                                                                                                                                                             2025年3月16日\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["亲子","文学"]},{"title":"儿童时期最幸福的10件事","url":"/%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E6%97%B6%E6%9C%9F%E6%9C%80%E5%B9%B8%E7%A6%8F10%E4%BB%B6%E4%BA%8B.html","content":"\n3-6岁经历的美好体验会转化为内隐记忆，形成终生的情感基底色。看似简单的快乐，实则是大脑构建情绪调节、认知框架和社会适应的关键材料。\n开门见山\n\n父母的无目的拥抱。父母肢体接触促进催产素分泌，超 8 次拥抱可使杏仁核焦虑指数下降 42%。每天 10 分钟高专注度的亲子游戏能促进情绪调节能力发展。\n自由涂鸦的权利：前额叶皮层活跃度提升 37%，获得对物质世界的控制感，创造冲动得到释放\n水与沙的物理探索：非结构化游戏刺激多巴胺分泌量是玩具的 2.3 倍\n模仿成人劳动：获得我能做到的初级效能感\n自主选择零食：打破被动接受状态的解放感。2-4 岁每周 3 次食物选择权，成年后决策失误率降低 19%。\n重复性的仪式：如吹生日蜡烛，睡前交流等，昏暗灯光下的叙事形成海马体特殊记忆轨迹\n泥巴里的微生物社交：过敏率下降+突破禁忌带来的叛逆快感\n捉迷藏的峰值体验：躲藏时皮质醇短暂升高，发现瞬间释放内啡肽\n雨中踩水坑：对水资源的原始亲近本能，跨模态整合最佳场景\n被认真倾听的瞬间：成人蹲下平时对话时，儿童语言中枢血流量增加 31%，获得我存在的确认感\n\n总结\n\n\n这些活动的共同特征是：非功利性互动+感官自由+掌控感确认。\n\n\n非结构化的快乐体验 1 个单位将在成年后心理健康回报率 6.2 个单位，非常划算。\n\n\n每天有 2 小时的无目标活动时间，是比早教课程更珍贵的成长养料。\n\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["育儿"]},{"title":"内循环与共同富裕","url":"/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html","content":"\n躲不开的“过剩”\n小时候大家都听过资本主义倒牛奶的故事，辅以画外音：经济危机是资本主义自身不可克服的矛盾，一些简单的教条让中小学生们死记硬背着。\n但是其中的概要总结现在回头来看，也是切中要害的：社会化大生产与生产资料私人占有之间的矛盾日益深化，从而使资本主义经济危机周期性发作。在中国特色主义的高歌猛进下，产能过剩，也不能免俗。\n举个栗子\n让我们从一个比喻开始，你希望有五个老婆，这要需要，但你只养得起一个，这叫“有效需求”。同理，老王想要苹果全家桶，BBA各来一辆，两个超模保姆，大平层，天天米其林…但是上边说的这些老王都买不起，只能买得起红米手机，那他的需求就只有红米手机。在市场经济的话语体系里，如果买不起，那你就不是人。（卖不出去，东西过剩了）\n产能也是一样的，如果大家都买不起，或者不需要这些玩意，那就是过剩。奇怪，有钱能生产出来，咋个就卖不出去呢？\n让我们以一个极简化模型来讨论。假设地球是一个村，里面有资本家黄四郎和一堆村民。黄四郎有个厂子，雇佣村民生产自行车，杯子和房子等必需品，将来卖给村民。如果这些商品值100万，这时候就有个分配问题，如果黄四郎拿20万，给员工分80万，这合理吧（这也就是占有剩余价值）。合理是合理，但问题来了：员工们的80万无论如何也买不完黄四郎的100万产品（地球村简化模型说的就是等价交换，不提微观的垄断差价，360行你赚我赔，100w的蛋糕也是工人切分的基础），而黄四郎也不可能把自己的20万都花掉，富人在消费品领域消费比例一直不高，看着他花钱猛，不过消费占收入比例远小于穷人。换句话说，最后20万产品死活卖不出去，所以说，只要商人逐利，一部分收益不消费，就有一部分对应物资卖不出去，这玩意就是过剩。能不能给工人们发110w工资下去，那资本家赚啥？（能有110w那也是工人透支举债投资消费，后面会提到）\n\n社会化大生产的牛皮癣\n从英国引爆了工业革命那一刻，这个问题就如影随形，也就是消费这么重要的原因，但当时英国工人工资非常低，无论如何也消费不了那么多的物资，富人又不可能把赚到的钱都花了，多余的工业品卖不出去就成了个大问题，怎么办，只能卖到海外去（外循环），拼了命在全世界找市场，打大清，打印度。只要资源足够，英国人工业品生产潜能是无限的，麻烦的问题就是卖不出去。打下印度后，英国一下子牛逼的不得了，因为印度既是英国原料产地，又是工业品倾销地，一牛两用。等印度不跟着英国混，英国也就现了原形，变成小岛国去了。\n当所有产能过剩，东西卖不出去，厂子倒闭，工人更没钱，更没法消费，然后就全球经济危机了。美国人想出来给普通百姓贷款，借钱消费，危机被延缓了，但也会出现借力过猛，还不上的问题，也就是大家也熟知的金融危机。\n只有外部市场，产能依旧迟早过剩；如果完全内循环，在市场经济的远处也只能是死路一条。外部市场不能没，但我国长期太过依赖外部，今后也要提升内部市场地位，所以提双循环，而且提的是内循环为主，oh my god。\n啥是内循环\n外循环典型及弊端\n直接解释没啥意思，先讲一个不是内循环的，二战前的德国。德国在一战中伤了元气，欠了一屁股债，日子没法过，尽管工厂还在，但政府没一毛钱，也没钱买原料，不能开工，工人没工资，市场无法循环，整个国家越来越挫。好在美国人来了，给了德国大笔贷款，让德国人去买了原料重新开工，然后生产出来的东西一部分德国人用，剩下的大部分卖到了美国，这种情况下，典型的外向型经济体（压低要素成本，一般来说劳动者没钱），生产的东西主要卖到海外。随后1929经济危机爆发（经济危机也因美国无法继续高效挖掘外部市场，见下段），德国出事了。因为美国那边大规模破产，美国人没钱买德国东西，德国工厂也没法开工，工人失业，绝望下，把希特勒推上总理位置。\n希特勒当时想出来一个策略就是扩大军工，国家发行国债，筹钱投资给军队，让军队去向企业订货，空闲产能就被调动起来，扩军不稀奇，但问题钱从哪来，希特勒有办法，不是已经扩军嘛，枪在手，随后的事大家都知道，打劫捷克，波兰，然后法国，最后苏联。德国这个典型的外循环国家，一旦海外出事，东西卖不出去，就是大规模失业潮，一点办法都没，只能转向军工，武装后战争机器就去海外打劫，这样形成一个新的外循环。\n内循环-漂亮国\n接着说接近内循环的例子，美国。美国很早就意识到，想可持续发展，关键是搞一个庞大的内部市场，生产出来的东西自己尽量消化（福特就是这么理解这个问题的，一度指望自己的员工将来买自己的汽车）。\n理想骨感，在实操阶段，就是大萧条爆发前，资本家血腥无比，往死里压榨工人工资。当时美国资本家养的打手比美国军队还多，动不动就对要求涨工资的工人们来一波血腥屠杀，当时的美国政府其实就是资本家的马仔，在边上看热闹，偶尔还帮着资本家镇压工人。\n当时工人整体工资上不去，自然也买不完本国生产的物资。当时全世界都指望把自己的商品卖到别的国家去或殖民地去。当时美国就热衷将物资卖给中国，中国的地主们有点积蓄，很欢乐地购买西洋玩意。这些工业品从长三角进入中国，入关就得交税，所以控制了长三角税收的蒋委员长就是各军阀里最强大的一个。民国电视剧里的绿台灯，就是美国生产的，那时权贵基本一屋子都是美国货。这个背景下，美国也有外循环，也要把东西卖海外去，等到全世界所有市场全部挖掘干净了，资本主义天量的工业品就没地方卖了，又出现严重的过剩，再加上股市崩溃，引发了1929大萧条。德国在这次危机中转向军工来吸收产能，那美国怎么办呢？\n罗斯福新政\n美国和德国思路有些像，又不完全像。罗斯福搞以工代赈，也就是政府借钱搞基建，吸收产能和就业，有点像我国现有的模式。但这不是罗斯福政策的全部，他牛逼在他超前地意识到，整个社会想稳定运行，必须得搞出一个庞大的中产阶级来。通过提高工人工资和福利保障，把社会从之前的金字塔变成橄榄球造型。这样就可以通过自我革命，避免被苏联演变。那个时代苏联那套才是普世价值，处于进攻位置，欧美处于防守状态。\n在搞基建过程中，罗斯福大刀阔斧拆分自由主义时代的工业和金融巨头，对大企业开始征税，搞转移支付，向工人阶级提供保障，提高工资。当时工人和资本家冲突严重，罗斯福一改以前政府保护资本家的习惯，果断站在工人一边。比如1932年福特汽车工人罢工，州警察照例来驱赶，但联邦政府军队赶来支持罢工群众，州警察和联邦军队持枪对峙。为了跟资本家对抗，顺便打击黑社会（美国当时资本家大部分跟黑社会不明不白），罗斯福充分向FBI授权，继而FBI雄起。\n1929经济危机爆发时，美国两级分化最严重，0.1%的人拿走全社会25%的财富，90%的人分16%，老百姓没钱消费。从罗斯福开始，美国搞了一堆法案，致力于降低贫富差距，通过国家来调整收入结构，从那后，富人财富占比一路走低，美国慢慢涌现出一个庞大的中产阶层，政府强制搞养老金，避免老无所依，让大家放心消费。这种趋势一直持续到里根上台，美国重新大规模搞自由化，社会越来越分化，到了2008年产生了大危机。\n效率至上？\n众所周知，国家介入肯定会影响效率，不过政治家理解问题更加全面一些，因为社会追求的不仅仅是效率，从理论上讲，达尔文式的物竞天择效率最高。如果都不去照顾老人，让每个弱者都自发淘汰，效率会更上一层楼，但那样社会很快就会陷入崩溃，也就别谈效率了。\n而事实上，欧洲的福利制度也起源于革命运动风起云涌的俾斯麦德国。俾斯麦搞这玩意的初衷就是稳定社会，防止德国社会在一波革命中灰飞烟灭。\n技术平民化-市场经济的功效\n单纯的分配并不能解决问题，还要把蛋糕持续做大。在这方面，美国其实做的最好的事情是“国转民”。啥意思呢，进入20世纪后，就明显出现一个问题：技术越来越复杂，难度越来越高，如果私人部门搞研发，就算急死也搞不出多少来。比如影响了整个20世纪的几项关键研究：原子能，计算机，互联网和基因工程，都是以国家的力量，集合各种资源搞出来，并不是什么市场经济的伟力。\n市场经济真正的能力在于把这些技术变得既廉价，又亲民，让大家都用上，最后国家通过税收回收了投入，企业通过雇佣高收入员工拉高了社会就业率和工人收入，社会效率也得到大幅提高。\n\n苏联其实当时在技术研发上也很厉害，但最大的问题是没法对新技术进行廉价化，导致技术研发过程巨贵无比，研发出来后生产了几个样品就没下文了。这种只投入无产出的单向路径，想都不用想最终会让财政不堪重负，苏联正是财政崩溃后，苏联上层决定不过了，然后解体了。\n\n全球化-空心化\n美国通过一系列的操作，成功让美国从巨大的工业国，拥有了一个巨大的内需市场，实现了真正的内外两循环。只不过到了新千年之后，问题发生了大变化，大量的美国公司变成了跨国公司，搬到了海外，尤其是东亚，东亚本来是个内卷大坑，就是人多勤奋不怕苦。如果竞争有限资源互相往死里坑，但是如果去跟海外竞争基本无人能敌，很快东亚就成了“工业巨坑”，美国也逐步空心化。\n种花家的艰难转型\n\n把内循环搞起来，本身是个系统化工程，超复杂，且不是短期能搞定的，很可能要到20年后才能明白现在这个政策的意义，正如现在的房地产政策始于朱总时代，当时的人没啥感觉一样，再过很多年，突然才发现原来在2020年政策已经变了。\n\n过去三十年，中国向美国出口通缩（生产大量商品却没有足够消费力，一直在积累通缩压力），美国向中国出口通胀（印大量钱但没有对应商品），两者均保持微通胀的良好状态。可现在二者终来到了贸易失衡的阶段，且双方无法通过谈判解决分歧。太平洋两端，一个高血压，一个低血糖，隔空相视。\n中国要成为世界经济的领导者，过去的老路肯定无法持续，因为就算卷死欧美，那么需求也跟着死了，必须让自己的国民富裕起来，内循环转起来，让国内需求拉动经济，进而扩张拉动全球经济。\n搞内需，这事复杂在哪？\n提工资\n如果单纯提高工资，确实会增加消费，但会损害我国产品海外竞争力。这点上纯劳动密集型产业还是转移到经济水平更低的国家为好，消化产能带动后发国家的同时，做高海外收益。内部靠再次/三次分配，搞服务业相互挣钱。\n\nGNP在GDP之外，又再加上了当年国外生产的红利，利息总值，包含到国民在国外的投资和生产（但是是减去外国投资者在本国的投资收益和短期劳务报酬，这样一减也就没多少了，因为经济、资本高度全球化的世界，很难做到“只对外投资，而不接受他国投资”）。全球的大国，GNP和GDP的差异大多都在3%以内，日本也一样。你海外开厂投资赚别人的钱，别人也通过资本渗入分享你本国创造的收益，都绑定在一起了。\n\n企业减税\n如果给企业减税，企业订单没增加，突然账上多了一笔钱，它会给员工涨工资吗？\n可能会吧，但从历史经验来看，企业第一反应基本是去买套房屯着，反而推高了房地产价格。美国那边减税后会去回购股票，来推高股价。\n给中产减税呢？\n中产又分好几等，年收入60万以上也是中产，5-10万也是中产（美国那边定义滴滴司机就算中产），你给他们减了税，各个阶层反应差别很大。\n年入100w者\n年入100w等家庭退税10w，这一家人会把多出来的钱去超市买水果，买衣服增加消费吗？可能吧，不过大概率是去海外购买奢侈品，或者直接去海外旅游，钱也花国外去，又成外循环了。\n年入30w者\n给月入30w家庭退税，或者补助，他们啥反应？会去三亚旅游？买鞋？给孩子买个玩具？有可能，不过更大可能是攒着准备下一套房了，毕竟旅游和买玩具他们本来就支付得起，不原因支付是因为在攒钱买房，买了一套还想买。\n低收入减税？他就没交税\n如果你给低收入阶层减税，会惊喜的发现他们并没有交税，减啥减？直接发钱？这个倒是也可以，而且他们倒也很愿意消费，这个操作我国已经在做了，“脱贫攻坚”就是向下转移。促进社会保障体系，我国也做了很多年了。\n技术拉动经济-创造高薪岗位\n中美当初相比，缺了点什么呢？政府看出来了，正是技术的转换。国家投资技术研发，然后转化给私企来廉价化和市场化，最后涌现出一堆公司来。这一点上我国已有成功经验，如移动互联网，就是典型的“政府搭台，企业唱戏”，且成熟的内循环的案例。\n政府投了无数的钱，把中国移动互联网体系搭了起来，然后涌现一堆互联网公司，塑造了中国现在的新面貌，大量的高薪岗位，还拉动了其他岗位，如二三线的快递和电商从业者。\n大家要有个常识，一般说的“中产阶级”，是介于穷人和有钱人之间的那伙人，所以美国开滴滴，修下水道的，都是中产。换算到中国，大概年入5w到100w之间的这群人。3个年入10万的，肯定比一个年入30w的对经济效果好。6个年入5w的，效果会更好。\nSo，扩大中产阶级规模，说的是5w这个阶层的，不是30w的阶层。\n\n\n大部分挂在网上的人与这个关系都不大，因为大家可能觉得自己钱不够的，但是在中国，政府关心的是低收入阶层。当你年收入超过5w，你就是成熟的社会人了，不能指望政府帮你做点啥了。\n\n\n如果你年收入超过10万，妥妥的社会中坚，得承担起义务来，得想想你能给国家做点啥了。\n\n\n年收入超过三十万或者一百万的知乎群众，政府根本没工夫理他们。政府唯一在意的，就是想想搞点高端玩意，让他们想花钱的时候，尽量在国内花。\n\n\n移动互联网在这方面做的最好，生动地向大家展示了什么叫“技术拉动经济”，创造了几千万个相关岗位，广度很大。一个本来在大城市上班的抖音博主，有几十万粉丝，无意向大家推荐了他家乡的手工竹器，现在他们村竹器卖得特别好，以前村里每家年收入不到1w，现在已经3，4万了，后续会更好，技术创新的触手已经伸到了乡村。\n内循环的直观影响\n所谓内循环：\n\n短期靠转移（财政向基层转移财富，提升基层消费能力，改善民生，消耗我国工业品，正是扶贫攻坚的意义）\n长期靠科技\n\n从根本上解决问题，最关键还是要靠技术的突破，搞几个新的爆发点出来，像移动互联网一样，催生一大堆新公司，更多数量的高收入阶层和更大规模的中产，这才是决定性的操作。\n房价\n房价问题，隐隐我国要搞新加坡模式。新加坡政府给大家提供一堆长得差不多的廉价房，你愿意就去那里住。廉价房旁就是商品房，嗷嗷贵，比北上深都贵，新加坡有钱人就在那里边住着。我国关系民生的那部分房价会慢慢平复下来，但是还有一部分房产价格贵到让人怀疑人生，例如一二线核心区，彻底金融化。不然有钱人的钱去哪？全世界有个共同点，就是一有钱就搞豪宅，而且如果没有高端房产，他们就跑去国外置产了，这对我国来说，也是一种财富外流。\n\n一线豪华盘贵到大家怀疑人生，超级都市圈会越来越大，这些地方的房子没空闲出来一说；其它地方会空心化，没什么投资价值\n\n进口替代\n今后进口替代会进一步加剧，就是说一些豪华大品牌，要慢慢国产化，中国工业品尽管发达且门类齐全，但有钱人消费的高端玩意还是依赖进口，政府可能会像扶持京东方一样扶持这类产业，让大家都能廉价用上高端玩意。\n旁边的杂音\n这段时间，常有越南出口和订单如何如何猛的消息，抢了中国的生意云云。但越南和中国根本不在一个竞争咖位上，传播之流也就是些鼠目之辈或别有用心。\n越南\n越南取代中国就像马来取代德国一样搞笑，在中国看来，它就是个省级国家。越南自己设定的小目标是泰国（泰国是东南亚的头部国家，有制造业，旅游业，环境也不错），下定决心10年内超过泰国，争取50年内达到中国台湾的水平。我们跟越南的关系有点像10几年前我们和美国的关系，处在不同的生态位。\n越南现在最大的优势就是人力便宜，普通工人月薪1千左右，有些国内企业外派员工过去，各种补助算下来一个月2-3w，过着神仙一样的生活，像极了20多年前老外在中国的感觉。但越南很难培养出自己巨大的国内市场，产业升级是个大麻烦，他们自己也懂，没那么多谈判筹码。且其国家小（国土狭长面积小，山多平地少，人口集中在南北两个山脚），基础设施差，居民教育水平也不行（殖民地肯定不推行教育，一直打仗也影响，直到70年代后才慢慢开始），干不了复杂的事情。要从最底层的组装也慢慢去爬科技树。\n越南转型较快，但还有一个问题是党政军三家不分，有军队经商的问题（硬实力最强），改革开放裁军一半60w人转业到地方，造成军队影响力不减反增。越南军队影响力可与泰国和缅甸相媲美（军政府尾大不掉），要是在改革中遇到问题，军队利益受损，暴走没准也是一瞬间的事情。\n人才教育\n\n越南很难培养自己巨大的国内市场，21年人口9850w，产业升级会是个大麻烦。人力资源水平更多取决于知识水平，所以非洲的人力资源要差些意思。印度教育水平不差，差的是普及程度，基层差的一塌糊涂，所以印度相当于一个2,3亿人的国家。\n美国从越南撤军时也带走了精英人群，meta小扎的老婆就是越南华裔，当时随美军撤走的，虽然逃难什么都丢了才去美国时很惨。\n越南的人才外逃一直没停止过（动乱使中产阶级全面出逃，且有清洗历史），国家人才失血，有点家产和能力的人都想跑路，美国有200w越南裔，都是一点点跑来的。\n越南的高等教育是个大问题，文科生比理科生多得多，因为没有足够的岗位提供理科生，还有部分是理科生培育成本相对更高，东南亚国家都有这种味道。\n\n中国产业转移\n中国中低端制造业专业出去已是必然，不少工厂已经招不到人，追着这些刚从坑里爬出来的国家跑也是必然。只要这些国家的人稍微有些选择，没人会选择在流水线旁站8个小时当人肉机械臂的工作。流水线没换机械臂只是因为这世界上还有人比机械臂还便宜。华人一些不准备干的厂，发现到了越南还有得赚，于是就搬过去了。且越南应该是这个星球上最接近于我们的国家，而中越实际没什么竞争关系，没必要敌视越南。\n总结\n**正所谓：穷人国家补，富人国内花，科技要突破，进口要替代。**只是过程快不了，只能是慢慢来，且政府只是个导向，通过税收来激励，真正去操作，还得依赖一波波强人们去操作，一般十年一个周期，2010年中国和现在完全不一样，不出意外，2030又是一番天地。\n发达国家都得有个强大的内部市场来消化产能，之前出口导向有太多的收益者，如果想改变这种导向，平常没法基本操作，只能在危机时期才能操作，类似美国南北战争后遭到封锁，才被迫发展太平洋航线和国内市场，大萧条爆发后才被迫调整贫富差距，每次经历巨大的危机，大家才会思考怎么避免这类问题，平时谁顾得上啊，就算你提出来也会被笑话成杞人忧天。\n危机绝对是转机，肯定是之前的老路走不下去才危机嘛，这时候被迫跳出舒适区，去做那些艰难的事，解决复杂的问题，才是进步之源。\n共同富裕的外部启示\n在贸易顺差追赶美丽国的过程中，德日都遭受了打击，都要求签署了广场协议，都经济遭受重创，但德日两家受影响不同，给我们在共同富裕上的启示很大。\n广场协议\n日本战后发展很快，一方面美国大哥开放了西方市场给他们（生产东西卖给西方），解决了需求端的问题，另一方面西方也转让了一部分资金和技术给日本，让他快点起来围堵苏联和中国，就解决了供给端的问题，天时地利人和，都凑齐了。日本从战后到73年，每年8%以上的增速，74年放缓一年后，第二轮增长持续到90年前后，同时期德国情况差不多，也是飞速发展。美国本来准备修理他俩来着，但随着冷战铁幕落下，正好落在他俩家门口，美丽国只好扶他俩起来干苏联。\n在增长下，日本和我国情况一样，对外贸易上占了美国人便宜，贸易顺差，德国一样，美国人一度不准德国人去美国卖车。美国越来越暴躁，三十年间纺织大战，钢铁贸易大战，彩电摩擦，汽车贸易摩擦，不过也是因为你牛逼才摩擦你。\n80年代日本事世界上第二大经济体，人均收入是美国145%，GDP占世界15%，超过德法两家综合。德国也成了欧洲领头羊，法国也通过举国之力搞定了一堆重要的技术突破，他俩开始威胁美国在欧洲的影响力。\n在这个背景下，美国忍无可忍，准备收拾下德日，就有了广场协议，但说被广场协议直接干趴，太过简化了。美丽国指责两国操纵汇率（跟说中国一样），不过这事没冤枉日本，日本老百姓买美国东西巨贵，基本不买美国东西，美国人买日本人东西巨便宜，疯狂消费日本产品，上调两国汇率，这样德日货就会很贵，美国货也不那么完全没竞争力。\n美国搞日本是个长期的事，广场协议只是其中一部分，真实情况是1971年就开始搞，一直搞到1987年，并不是一个协议那么简化。71年西方十国财长就搞了个《史密斯协定》，要求日元升值，小打小闹不断，85年美英德法日财长在美国纽约广场饭店签订了《广场协定》，87年还有《卢浮宫协议》，核心就是一件事，让日元和德国马克升值。迫于压力且日本政府希望日元国际化，日元出现大幅升值，日本生产的汽车和彩电变贵，86年日本出口增速从3.9%暴跌到-16.8%，以往卖到海外的东西卖不出去了，德国也差不多，出口暴跌，随后几年GDP增速也遭到腰斩。\n他俩可都是工业国，也是生产国，生产出来的东西卖不出积压在仓库，但是贷款利息就能把大部分企业干倒闭，怎么办，德日都慌了。\n协议的副作用-产业转移\n德日都使劲压低制造成本，德国办法是把一部分制造业搬到东德和东欧国家，那些国家老百姓工资低，成本低。日本也一样，为了提升竞争力降成本，很多工厂就转移到中国沿海去了，当时中国急需外汇，这部分工业转移帮里不少忙。在这以前，中国换外汇主要通过卖石油和煤炭给日本，那时中国属于资源国，随后升级到低端制造业，近几年又在向高端制造业发展。\n不过日本大部分转到东南亚，就说亚洲四小虎，但98年金融危机后，四小虎遭到欧美资本屠杀，资本家发现东南亚国家政府太弱，中国正好加入WTO，低端产能于是都来了中国。历史上是中国吸走了东南亚的制造业，现在中国也在向外转移不太赚钱的产能。\n分岔路口\n我国当前也面临日德当初的问题。出口不产业升级势必长期走弱，原材料价格狂涨，原材料主要在澳洲等手里，资源公司背后都是美日资本控股，资源涨价，看着我国出口发展很好，大头其实被原材料赚了，也就是欧美赚了，我们制造业现在利润非常薄。\n投资回报率面临一个边际收益递减的问题，好理解，早起投资基建是雪中送炭，现在成了锦上添花，如早期投建京沪高铁，流量大收益高，现在主干道修的差不多了，比较偏大线路流量根本撑不住高铁这样的大投资，投资回报率非常低。\n绕来绕去只剩扩大内需一条路了，扩大内需又两条路\n\n一是通过货币政策来放大，贷款消费日本路线，结果是资产泡沫达到离谱，最后大家借不到钱整体崩了。08年的次贷也是一个道理。\n\n\n我国这两年坚定去杠杆，这事的本质和沃尔克和三重野康的做法目标是一致的，都是降负债投机降泡沫，只是疯狂原始人激进了些。\n\n\n另一个办法就是德国办法，国家主动转移，降低贫富差距，让基层老百姓有钱消费，拉动内需，有消费了才能继续生产，逻辑听起来很奇怪，不过搞市场经济就这样，消费在前，生产在后。我国一线城市收入水平直逼发达国家，但还有很多地方仍属于欠发达地区，这也像西德东德的关系。本来德国主要深耕欧洲，被美国搞了之后，更加深耕欧洲，跟我们现在大力发展跟东南亚的贸易也很相似。\n\n德国那套逻辑还有个好处，避免房价股价什么暴涨，这类东西一暴涨，大家就会借钱去炒作，本该消费的钱就花到这类资产上了，非常容易出事。但这几年东欧老年化严重，德国对东欧的投资收益率也上不去，开始投机本国房地产，叠加美元放水，德国的房价也是一直在攀高。\n我国不断出台政策，压房价，提共同富裕，完善财税系统，明显是在走德国的路线且回避日本当初的坑。且跟德国相比，我们的纵深优势比他们大得多，空间更大，尤其要利用起来。\n日本对策\n\n在早期的美日产业争端中，美国没搞透日本这种官僚+财阀的有计划的市场经济。其内部跟铁桶一样，外力难以插进去，到了80年后，美国以各种方式开始切割这种联系。第一，不准日本再集中所有资源去大规模推行各种产业政策，第二，开始大力扶持韩国，将日本订单份额转移给韩，造成竞争，阻碍进步。第三要求日本开放各种管道，使财阀可以从其它地方获取资金，摆脱对本土资金的依赖，同时让美国资本去购买这些财阀的股票，形成利益捆绑关系（这一点最重要）。\n日本能崛起的重要原因，就是因为这些财阀能利用官僚提供的无限资金进行赶超式发展，哪怕赶超的方向没什么利润，甚至亏损也义无反顾，毕竟资金上依赖它，当然指哪打哪。\n\n日本的起家就是一个出口的过程，但切断外部需求时，只能通过拉通它自身的需求来填补空缺，可长期的出口早就让其内部养成了一个高储蓄但无需求（压低要素成本没多少收入）的环境。美日的第二次产业争端，决定的是全球创新型国家的位置，需要的是海量资金试错成本，美国可以依靠美元虹吸全球，可日本并没有达到那种程度。\n\n高储蓄率除去文化因素和保障政策，与特定发展阶段经济增长方式也密切相关，人口红利丰裕，投资回报率较高，必然诱导出以要素累积为主导的经济增长模式，高投资回报率又会引发储蓄的动机。\n当要素累积推动的增长模式难以为继的情况下，高储蓄率可能通过挤压消费，给经济增长带来不利影响。\n家庭的发展和国家的发展也有类比之处，没有储蓄结余的家庭也是没法增长型发展和阶层跃升的，做复杂的事情需要延迟满足，这部分延迟的消费（储蓄）也是投资/杠杆基石的一种。\n\n当消费市场需求不足，就只能通过拉动房股来人为制造需求，完成一个市场循环。这种方式并没能形成金融和商品的对接，按当时炒资本的疯狂劲头，很难说到底有多少资本愿意去一些特定的方向去拼搏一些未知的未来（而且即使成功了，在走出去时也有可能被老美围追堵截），结果嘛大家现在都知道了，日本的第二次转型自然失败了。\n让本国老百姓消费掉过剩产能，可老百姓钱就那么多，要消耗，就得多花钱。怎么让他们多花钱呢，政府想来想去，最后出了个主意，降息降准央行放水（鼓励通过信用创造债务，试错/消费需要资本供给；我没法虹吸，就吸自己老百姓的储蓄吧）。\n\n降息这事理解起来既容易又复杂，直观的感受就是你去银行贷款利息更少了，就可以贷更多的钱消费。而利息影响投资标的，比如你本来有几百万想去投资开饭店，算了下收益率只有4%，如果利息5%，你可能就不干了，毕竟躺着比投资都赚钱，那还折腾啥。如果现在降息到1%，存钱就不划算了，不如去投资，工作岗位就创造出来了，老百姓就加工资了。\n\n降息降准的成果\n降息后，市场确实充满了热钱，日本的钱，美国的钱都涌入日本投资，效果怎样呢，非常不怎么样。银行是最嫌贫爱富的，它贷款给你，都是要抵押的，你有上千万的房子，它随随便便贷款给你几百万，你没钱想贷点，轰你出门。相当于富人们手里一下子多了一堆钱，他们会去买电视冰箱洗衣机吗，谁家会花几百万去买这些东西。\n大家要知道一个情况，大钱和小钱的花法完全不是一回事，普通老百姓家里多了几千块，可能就会去改善生活，买点电器，主要是消费。但是如果你账上多恶劣上千万的银行贷款，吃喝是花不掉的，只能去投资，如果投资建厂还好，但是当时日本是产能过剩，厂子已经太多了，所以基本都投资到房地产和股市里了。\n日本富人疯狂去买房和股票这样的资产，随后资产价格上涨，中产阶级一看房价和股市都在起飞，赶紧把房子抵押了也去买，从银行贷出来更多的钱，房价股价进一步被推高，左脚踩右脚就飞起来了，国内一片欣欣向荣，看着和我国挺眼熟的。\n\n但日本政府慌的要死，因为他们知道，降息的目的不是为了拉房价，而是为了给企业消化过剩产能，现在产能没消化，企业都跑去贷款炒房炒股，日子怎么办？\n\n日本央行自89年起开始温和提高利率，降低货币供应，89年底三重野康出任日央行行长，这位中国东北长大的经济奇才极其讨厌投机，当时日本主流经济学家觉得投机是市场行为，市场是不会错的，所以他们送讨厌投机的三重野康一个“疯狂原始人”称号，认为他是中了计划经济的毒。为啥说他疯狂呢，因为他作风极端雷厉风行，甚至有点不顾后果。他上台后五次提高利息，在90年8月，利息由超低的2.5%飙升到6%，且银行不放水了，股市房市切断了货币供应，涨不动了，没人接盘了。随后就爆发股灾，三年跌掉一半多，楼市也没逃掉，晚于股市半年后开始动摇，随后激烈下跌，三年也跌掉了46%，上万亿日元资产化为乌有。\n三重野康之前，美联储主席沃尔克（79-87年间），也是一个强人，曾经大幅提高利率，把美国经济直接搞出三年萧条，不过一般认为沃尔克是一个伟大的美联储主席（半瓢水的鼓吹），有壮士断腕的决心，三重野康明显要做下一个沃尔克。\n\n79年彼时美国接连遭遇两次石油危机冲击，全国陷入滞胀危机，美元与金融体系摇摇欲坠，为抑制通胀水平，沃尔克提高联邦基准利率，紧缩政策初时效果不彰，不仅美元继续贬值，失业率也一度突破9.5%。紧缩政策虽导致卡特连任失败，但里根依然信任沃尔克，最终在82年迎来转机，通胀水平开始回落，股市摆脱近十年低迷，拉开一场史诗级牛市，持续到90年代（说白了靠里根大搞自由化，竞争不过日德，画了一个新大饼，市场经济活力军转民，确实引领了新经济，美元回流续了命。沃尔克只是在避免大而不能倒和削减投机扎实搞研发起到了一定的作用，作用完全没里根大）\n\n92年后，日本房价一直降，又降了50%，现在是在老龄化夹击下，恢复不上去了。\n来自日本的部分反思\n日本央行原行长白川方明提出，中国能从日本身上吸取什么样的教训？货币政策时常会被提及，日本过去 30 年的增长乏力的根源与所谓的通缩并无关联，根本原因首先是人口结构的恶化，其次在于日本经济和社会为适应全球化与技术变革等环境变化所做的艰难调整。\n经济增长的长期动力来源于『劳动力投入』和『生产率』的提升，日本劳动年龄人口自 90 年代中期达到峰值后持续下降，直接拖累了经济潜在增长率。劳动力减少意味着生产和消费的基础都在萎缩，同时老龄化社会导致社保负担加重，挤占了可用于经济增长的资源。当劳动力投入无法增长时，生产率就成为经济增长的唯一引擎，但日本的生产率增长在经历了告诉发展期后显著放缓。国内市场需求饱和增长停滞，企业缺乏扩大投资的强烈动机，加之几轮金融危机的冲击，企业的盈利和资产负债表几次遭遇重创（08 年再度重创已修复资产负债表的日企），迫使企业将目标从利润最大化转向债务最小化，抑制企业投资。随着全球化中，韩经济体的崛起，日本的诸多优势产业面临激烈竞争，产业升级和转型速度未能跟上全球化的步伐。\n通缩更多是经济低增长的结果，而非原因。仅仅靠激进的货币政策，无法解决人口老龄化和生产率低下等根本问题。\n如果用劳动人口人均 GDP 增长率来衡量，日本经济增速其实高于美国，但大家将通缩视为首要问题，所以祭出货币政策的解法，认为应当通过大量印钞或采取激进货币政策来解决，他认为中国不应轻信这类观点。\n插播一条近代韩国\n韩国是伴随着打压日本崛起的，一度也是日本的好学生，发展自身的同时也学来了一身的毛病，毛病层面更上一层楼。\n韩国继承了日本的躺平文化后，又多了一个投机文化，（杠杆化）疯狂炒美股买币。韩国当前处在一个尴尬的境地，向上突破不了，人口规模在那摆着，发展到现在的水平已经出乎意料。韩国内卷到了极致，因为创作比较自由，所以出了很多反映阶级的影视作品。\n东亚国家老百姓过得普遍苦，一个原因是东亚发展水平和人口数量决定的，注定很难过上欧美那种生活，但又过于在意阶级跃迁，跃迁成功固然好，失败的代价又有些承受不来。别为了一个低概率事件（赌博暴富）搞得自己活不下去，那才是真正的悲剧。\n\n代价小收益高的，可以搏一搏，但这种往往比较苦，不然大家都来搞了\n\n德国对策\n德国当时也没好办法，不过德国有惨痛通胀经历，对降息印钱这事比较敏感，就没着急降息，抑或考虑的比较通透（哲学修养深厚，对人性洞悉的也深刻），还**在苦恼的时候，好运降临，两德统一了**。\n到了90年，苏联眼瞅大势已去，两德人民统一愿望呼声很高，这事就开始聊上了。但这事，所有西方国家，都不希望德国统一，因为他统一了再发育发育，又变成欧洲一极，英法又得看其眼色。但当时西欧都是盟友，不好意思直接出手干预，都指望苏联修理德国，但苏联一言不发，看着德国统一了，把西方差点气死，当时法国总统没忍住，当场就说：苏联领导人到底收了多少马克？为啥不出兵阻止德国统一？\n为啥苏联不管呢，因为苏联是一堆加盟国的联盟，最大成员国是俄罗斯，俄一直觉得自己在联盟里比较吃亏，到了90年，俄罗斯自己想跑路，且跑路派已经充满了苏共高层（前面说的非市场经济，财政实在吃不住），他们巴不得盟友都跑了，那俄罗斯自己也就顺利脱身，当然不会管两德统一了。且法国人说的也对，俄罗斯人确实收了西德无数的钱，德国人有钱，觉得能用钱解决的问题都不是问题，为了两德统一他们愿意支付天价，还给俄罗斯人开出丰厚的价码，如永久放弃加里宁格勒（东普鲁士首府-哥尼斯堡，康德的故乡），成为俄罗斯的飞地。俄罗斯本来就不想留东德，又收了钱，又永久保住了加里宁格勒，就做了个顺水人情。\n两德统一德国一下子多出一块巨大的市场和人力资源池，大量廉价且受过高等教育的工人加入德国市场导致德国工人工资大幅下跌，制造业成本也就降下来了。因两德经济差距很大，为救济东德，德国政府通过了加税协议，对富人和富裕州征税，补贴东德地区。东德人收入增加后，就要买车买电视，德国自己增加了一大块内需，补充了消费力，本来卖不出去的那部分产能被东德消化了部分。\n德国当今产业人口现状\n据19年的数字，德国就业人口4552万\n\n农业，传统生产制造业，占比仅仅1/4，制造业吸收不了那么多人口，中国劳动力成本上升+老龄化，今后工厂里也难以像以往一样容纳那么多人口\n\n农业：57w\n制造业（1095w）：837w，建筑业258w\n服务业（3400w）：商业交通酒店1028w，企业服务商627w，信息通信/金融保险/房地产/公共服务/教育/健康 1748w\n来自《断层线》的评断\n不是每个国家都能成功实施外向型增长战略，这种战略随着国家的富裕而逐渐显现其局限性。上面的德日两国二战后，都不算真正的贫穷，它们拥有受教育程度很高的国民，明确的组织发展蓝图，只是经历战火资本储备大大减少，大企业崩溃或被占领当局压制，普通家庭无消费，出口成为它们解决问题的必由之路。\n随着经济的发展，德日工业部门每小时工资水平分别于1975年和1990年代赶上美国的水平，因此出口企业不再由于低工资在国际市场上享有相对优势，随着人均资本水平赶上发达经济体，但这些国家的贸易盈余最终会加剧本国货币的升值压力（宏观政策着眼于增加生产，家庭消费战后收到抑制）\n为了保持竞争力，德日都进入价值链上游，制造技术密集型产品，不断提高生产率。在贸易部门，两国做得都很不错，但非贸易部门，如建筑，零售和宾馆业这些外国竞争不存在的领域，生产增长率低下，这种在日本表现的尤为畸形，到过日本的人都惊奇的发现日本仍有专职女士为宾客升降电梯，这一工作能保存至今，说明这是一个没有竞争的服务领域。\n创造出口奇迹的国家看起来发展有点畸形，像只有一半肢体的人，效率奇高的生产部门和病态的服务部门并存，尽管国内需求萎靡却依然注重国外需求。\n难念的经也得念\n种花家当前就有这个问题，非常有钱的人几乎是不消费中国工业品的，主要买各种高端玩意，收入的大头都花在了资产上，消费才花几个钱。如果他们的财富转移支付一部分到穷人身上（当然一定是以法律税收的形式明明白白地转），穷人生活改善了，且穷人不可能每个月多2k块就去买奢侈品，主要消耗的是我国的产能，还可以抑制资产价格上涨。这套逻辑叫平衡战略，而不是简单地像日本那样操作。\n不过日本也是没招，日本没那么大一块外来天降资源，周围的国家中国和东南亚又不够富裕，暂时消费不起它的产品，远水解不了近渴。培育起来要时间（早期也不是为了培育外部市场，仅仅是为了降低自己的生产成本），不像一个国家里可以搞劫富济贫。\n这些年德国一直接受穆斯林难民，尽管老百姓不愿意，但国家政策要考虑大资本家的想法，引进受过教育的穆斯林，通过补贴和再教育，让他们成为德国工人，补充廉价劳动力，又可以提供内需。\n产业升级之路(技术拉动经济)，必然是集中攻坚之路，这条路上旧有产业产能必然转移/淘汰，调结构过程不会是轻松愉快的过程。\n只谈消费不谈分配\n财富分配的过去，今天和未来。PRC 也经历过三个阶段：\n\n平均主义时期（实际从 57 年开始），大锅饭也的确到后来生产效率不高。\n第二个阶段多劳多得，兼顾公平。但初次分配单纯的多劳多得很有公平问题，因为地域地理本就不公平，加之市场的马太效应太强大，在初次分配阶段资源向有钱人集中的太快，非强力不可逆转。\n从 04 年开始强调促公平，甚至到后来提出了三次分配的概念。三次分配是捐赠，换句话说施舍，只能是辅助作用，解决不了问题。\n\n通过你对初次分配的观察分析，很多人并没有发展起来，并不是他们不够努力，只是当今的发展方向并不适合他们，他们牺牲了自己的发展前景换来了社会的进步，那么理应是发展起来的人需要对他们进行补偿，而不是施舍。\n只能靠二次分配，也叫再分配来平衡解决问题。西方的二次分配做的好的，都是地小人稀的地方，北欧五国最大的瑞典，和黑龙江差不多大，最小的丹麦就和哈尔滨一样大。瑞典全国只有 70 多家公立医院和 6 家私立医院，这 70 几家医院足以服务全部瑞典人。\n而黑龙江要建2185 个医疗机构（2022 年的数据，其中含专科疾病防治院 28 个，妇幼保健院 116 个），黑龙江的人口也只有瑞典的 3 倍而已。再分配效率低是因为我们人口分散，瑞典城市化率 88%，把医院建在城市里就足以覆盖绝大部分人口，而我们是 60%多，墨西哥都有 80%，由于我们地域实在辽阔，剩余 30%的人分布在各种犄角旮旯，安土重迁思维使得即便发展不畅也不愿意离开自己的家乡。但凡有人的地方，我们的基建即便跋山涉水也必须跟上，如果没有二次分配，很多地方连医院学校都养不起。\n搞城镇化本质就是让大家富起来，医疗只是一个侧面，反映着我们的分配成本。在保障公平方面，我们还做了哪些？提高退休金，提高福利保障，扶贫，乡村振兴，可以说做的还不够好，不能像某些人说的什么都没做，但总有人说我怎么感觉不到，怎么不发钱云云。这是因为我们绝大多数是以间接方式运行，没有补贴的公交车价格最少翻 5 倍，直接发钱只会加速不公的出现，底层人收到钱基本只有两条出处：偿还负债+消费。偿还负债会迅速流回金融机构，金融的慕强性，会快速流入富裕人群和发达地区。消费的部分被部分老板赚到集中，然后带着钱去更高级的地方消费。总之钱会以各种形式回到产业源头的发达地区，偏远地区啥也没剩下，还不如人为增加投资这道关卡，基建的本质也是一种二次分配。基建的钱多数来自于转移支付，以工代赈可增加当地人的初次分配收入，还能给贫困地区留下很多物资资产，拉长这笔资金在贫困地区的流通时长。\n二次分配我国做得不错，但最终更彻底解决问题还是要靠初次分配的适时调整。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"别2021，迎2022","url":"/%E5%88%AB2021-%E8%BF%8E2022.html","content":"\n环境变革与内省调整\n2021年是一个肃杀之年，听到最多的词就是内卷和动荡。广纳贤才的大厂也开始只出不进了，年轻人创业卷，连楼底下的奶茶店，都开出了奈雪的茶和蜜雪冰城。卷，这个词，似乎成了这两年经济的主旋律，但这不代表你能躺平，逃避，而相反这时候最适合你悄悄努力。人这一生，读书和赚钱是最好的修行。读书不仅可让人不惑，更可让人心有尊严（虽然尊严也需要护法神）。\n可惜成长总是会伴随着告别和失去，走着走着你发现身边的人都换了，你的同窗，你的旧友联系越来越少了，你的父母早已两鬓斑白半身入土了。但你似乎什么都没来得及做，时间就把这些悄悄剥夺，猜人生到头来就是不断的放下，只是永远最令人痛心的就是没来得及好好道别。\n人生的本质就是一个人去活着，不要对别人心存太多期待，我们总是想要找到能为自己分担痛苦和悲伤的人，可大多数时候，你以为的惊天动地生无可恋的伤痛，在别人眼里不过是随手拂过的尘埃。人生不易，只有经历过黑暗和无助，你才能感恩生活中的一切习以为常。\n你胸怀大志，去大城市去创业去追梦，我生而俗常，选择简单平凡的守候也是一种人生。人活一世，草木一秋，活着本身就是人生的意义。我们要学会认清现实，接受自己的失败甚至平庸，到头来无非还是柴米油盐酱醋茶，琴棋书画诗酒花。而这些物质和精神世界的核心组成，真的用不到太多财富，更用不到每个人都去追求财富自由。\n人生最大的自由就是懂得与自己的过去和缺陷和解，学会悲喜自渡，星海横流，岁月成碑，生如逆旅，一苇以航。就这样让我们与2021道别吧，与过去的自己道别，与失去的人和遗憾的事道别。站在新的起点上一起拥抱2022，期待新的开始，也愿每个人都能平安喜乐，得偿所愿。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["心理","时代"]},{"title":"别2024迎2025","url":"/%E5%88%AB2024%E8%BF%8E2025.html","content":"\n2024 成为大周期转折的共识年，LPR 年内三次下调。提前还贷倒逼了降存量房贷，前两天央行行长，说存准还有下降空间，也意味着利息下降的空间不大了，金融监管总局披露二季度商业银行净息差均值是 1.54%，跌过 1.8%的警戒线了。大家从几年前的买房、创业，憧憬 跌跌撞撞到还贷、躺平，深思。\n\n部分年度关键词\n一揽子增量政策\n赶在国庆节前上马一系列劫贫济富重磅拉抬政策，解救玩杠杆要爆仓的资本家，A 股上证一周拉抬 1000 点，重返 3600，年度最后最后一天收盘定格 3351。可惜没有直接收割到 60、70的钱，收割了60、70小孩的钱，也算是曲线救国。\n咱们就不说近的这场人造小牛。从有人做的 2014.7~2015.2这一小段牛市从酝酿到破灭期间上交所4000万投资者样本调查复盘看资本量和结果的关系，虽有全部日频持仓信息和交易记录，但没从交易动向来分析，而是端到端拉通看结果。\n\n《Wealth Redistribution in Bubbles and Crashes》，2022 发表于《Journal of Monetary Economics》\n\n在这个调查中，将个人账户分为 4 组\n\n\n0-50 万元，占比 85%，累计损益$-$2500 亿\n\n\n50 万元-300 万元，占比 12.5%，累计损益 $-$420 亿\n\n\n300 万-1000 万元，占比 2%，累计损益 440 亿\n\n\n1000 万元以上，占比 0.5%，累计损益 2540 亿\n\n\n只有 2.5%的高净值投资者在那轮行情波动中是赚钱的，85%的普通投资者的 2500 亿左右的资金被 0.5%的高端投资者给赢走了。\n止跌回稳\n10.17 日，住房和城乡建设部联合四大中央部门打出一套“组合拳”：四个取消，四个降低，两个增加。这套组合拳比 12.31 日《上海市加快完善生育支持政策体系推动建设生育友好型社会的若干措施》12 条，要有诚意的多，哈哈，毕竟确实降了存量贷款利率，生育友好型社会的若干措施就像是满船的喇叭一样的既视感，表明他们并不真想解决问题，只是给上方演一出我在全面思考，全面举措的戏。退一步想，他们知道问题解决不了，再退一步想，抑或他们完全不知道如何解决，当权者私，肉食者鄙，均有可能。\n期待房价像股市般触底反弹并不现实，过去几年的房价只能算是处于相对低位，止跌回稳这一说法也很明确，目标并非制造再次繁荣，消化库存，维持房价稳定才是第一要义。所以现行的结果也很明显：你放出了除降价以外的一切措施，我提供除购买以外的一切支持。\n其实止跌回稳这四个字，已是良苦用心，用以稳住一些城市的税收和饭碗，而不是提倡都去买。毕竟不提一个涨字难道是为了避谁的讳？此四个字其真正的含义就是慢慢下跌，平稳着陆。不能实话实说，是要拿时间换空间。如果明确告知房地产时代要过去了，人们都懂了，都去抛，那么价格，市场，就业都要崩，还在还房贷的人，心态也要崩掉，雪崩对谁都是不好的。\n我们的国家经历大基建后，现在的状态确实和当年的日本最为接近，房地产泡沫，年轻人失业，通缩，发国债，同样人口锐减（更甚之），水泥壳子多。水泥壳子猛涨的时间就是完成了它的一个历史使命，税收任务。现在疲软了，聪明人都会发现他是不能等的了，就像聪明人不会等股票深套一样。政府要的是高效率，决策找新方向。涨价肯定也是新玩法，新产品了，旧的装备在新版游戏中就是标配了。新游戏版本还告诉你旧版神装会涨价的，不是蠢那就是纯坏，因为他囤多了，让你接盘而已。\n\n任何一个国家不能轻易号召一个具体的事情，号召了你也要反着来。不是说假话，而是方向不能说的太具体。例如摆摊挣钱，你闷声摆就好（除了黄赌毒，一切正经生意，都不会拦着你），国家说摆摊挣钱，那你就快点跑，他的报道是对个例的总结和提振士气用的，不是让所有人都进场卷的，都进场卷，就都没钱赚了。\n\n延迟退休\n延迟退休9月落地，同步启动延迟男、女职工法定退休年龄。用 15 年的时间推进延迟 3 年。我国人均预期寿命达到 78.6 岁（全球平均 72）。能否顺利领到退休金，还是要看个人造化。有人能拉满40年后正常退休，自然死亡，也有驴肉火烧，阿胶的运数。不是所有人都能享受赶集的生活。\n\n在社科院的《中国养老金精算报告2019-2050》\n\n\n当期结余短暂地增长到2022年，然后从2023年便开始下降，到2028年当期结余首次出现负数，此当期结余是在“大口径”（包括财政补助）情况下测算得到的。如果不考虑财政补助，即在“小口径”情况下，当期结余在2019年就已经是负值，而且下降的更快\n\n\n累计结余将于2027年达到峰值并在2035年耗尽\n\n\n基金可支付月数两极分化趋势依然明显\n\n\n\n中国过境免签\n中国 144 小时过境免签，便利特定国家旅客来华，不少外国人也体验了一把&quot;特种兵式旅行&quot;，不少中老年欧美人一看一个不吱声。政策后，入境游客显著增加，上半年免签入境外国人高达 854.2 万，占比 52%，同比增长 190.1%。\n阿勒泰\n阿勒泰火了，成了打工『牛马』的精神故乡，是轻盈生活态度的一种意象映射，上半年阿勒泰地区接待游客同比增长 30.25%。剧中，开小卖部的张凤侠和女儿李文秀间有一场对话。女儿问：我虽笨手笨脚，但我还是个有用的人，对吧？妈妈说道：啥叫有用？生你下来是为了让你服务别人的？你看看这个草原上的树，草，有人吃有人用，便叫有用，要是没人用，就这么待在草原上也很好嘛！\n通缩\n按凯恩斯学派的说法，通货紧缩的本质是有效需求不足，换句话说，钱被有些人收藏起来了。\n说老百姓恶意存款的专家和嘲笑老百姓买不起眉笔的网红，悄悄吃你的肉，别吧唧嘴了。\n周处除三害\n可能大篇幅涉及邪教诈骗揭露，暴力镜头这么明显的电影破天荒的过审。影片的成功，也捧红了里面的“洗脑神曲”《新造的人》，魔性的旋律嵌入人心，很多观众都会唱了。邪教控制人心的手段，歌曲是最直接高效的伎俩之一：无数次重复成为肌肉记忆，伴随着朗朗上口的律动，邪教麻痹人心的教义，锥入人的灵魂之中。\n我没有背叛工人阶级\n\n童润中被网友亲切称为「润中同志」，用《宪法》和《毛选》捍卫自身利益，硬刚资本，火爆全网。而后视频被全部下架。\n胖东来也被媒体围剿过，但其在河南的区域经营也还是愈发火爆。\n\n在乌鸦的眼中，天鹅都是有病的：\n胖东来有一个问题是：用人成本较高，06 年给保洁 2000~2500，高过市场 50%以上。零售是一个高劳动密集型的行业，在这个行业，把人工成本做得这么高是很危险的。DL 一年营收几十亿，去年净利润 1.4 亿，这不是对所有企业都适用的模式。另外，DL 没有模仿转向全渠道经营，线下做得再强也仍有提升空间。\n监听则明\n外资的全国连锁商超已经证明了不成功，永辉这样的全国连锁这几年也业绩不佳，一方面可能是模式不行，另一面是商品力出了问题：\n\n模式不行是因为大卖场这种业态在一二线城市没有太大空间，与人们的消费习惯需求不匹配，目前仓储会员模式、精品路线、小店前置仓等还有空间；\n商品问题在于，产品和需求不匹配，同样的商品，在购买力不同的地区，表现会不一样” 。\n\nDL 算是区域零售的佼佼者，但也不具备扩张和复制的条件。在高工资地区，靠薪资激励员工的成本会更高，同样的 1000 在三线和一线在基数比例上的影响就显出差距了。\n黑神话\n游戏 8.20 日登录几大平台，迅速登顶多个平台的销量榜首。首发 3 天内全球销量超 1000 万份，一个月超 2000 万份，成为有史以来销售速度最快游戏之一。大家称赞其在战斗系统、视觉设计及世界观方面的构建。游戏谁都能融合中国的文化和自然地标，也融入了佛道两教的哲学元素。\n游戏由游戏科学于2017 年开始开发，于 2020 年 8 月 20 日公布首段实机演示视频，目标是向通过视频吸引开发人才，毕竟最初开发团队只有 7 个人。游科的底子团队，曾经在腾讯参与开发过斗战神，可惜游戏未能获得成功，这次算是梦想的延续。游戏开发成本超过 3 亿人民币，销售收入超过 73 亿，大赚特赚。\n游戏动漫的确更容易扩大文化输出的接触面，且是潜移默化植根在别人脑子里，对方还花钱买，这比孔子学院有效的多。但铺天盖地的宣传文化输出，就有些操之过急了，也显得太不高明，这档子事能说么。任重道远，各位天命人直面天命吧。\nOther\n巴黎奥运随性松弛，巴以冲突一年多了，特朗普再次上台，25 年多放 2 天假。\n时代\n经历过「全球化」和「互联网两次革命」带来的高速增长后，全球经济已步入寒冬，高速的中国经济第一次遇到了经济增速的降速停滞，日本经济停滞多年后，以安倍被刺丧失了仅存的一点金融主权。\n全球空虚的经济浮在泡沫之上，只有股市和通胀在上升。\n欧盟过去一直受高福利和多元化困扰，现在又陷入通胀的泥潭，对内四分五裂，外部又虎视眈眈，徘徊在战争边缘。\n美国过去由于蓝领和中产多年收入的停滞，导致川普的崛起，提出一系列反全球化的政经主张，疫情后被迫走上疯狂加息的钉子路，现陷入债务黑洞，政经陷入多方对抗的局面，底下一帮小弟各怀鬼胎，现有世界经济发展模式正面临分崩离析的可能，面临一次大的危机和大变局。拜登就是现在美国的象征，谁都知道他有大问题，觉得他好像随时会垮掉，很多人讨厌他，但暂时无法摆脱他，他虽然年老体衰，但经验老道，积累深厚，时不时又会回光返照，你可以笑话他，但最好不要低估他，如果这样的人是你的对手，最好的做法是充分了解他，然后做好自己的事情，因为时间站在我们这边。\n过冬\n在即将到来的经济寒冬中该如何度过，这种大的趋势对个人来说，选择的余地很少，在时代洪流面前，个人宛如蝼蚁，除了顺势而为，别无他法，能做的只能是调整自己的心态。\n\n首先做好长期过冬的准备，这个冬天也许很漫长，是一次世界性大衰退的调整\n其次不要贪婪，在经济寒冬中，各路资金犹如釜底鱿鱼轮番炒作，不要眼红人家炒债炒股发大财，没有经济基本面的支撑，这些炒作不过是搏杀赌博而已，谁接最后一棒就是傻子，普通小民资讯见识都无法跟大佬相比，后知后觉的羊群效应只会追涨杀跌，冲进去的时候都是高位站岗，做了炮灰，所以要有定力，任尔东西南北风，咬定青山不放松。普通人青山，立身之本就是一技之长，没事锻炼下身体，找点乐子，开心搬砖就好。\n最后不要恐惧，社会和时代在进步，历史不会重复过去的错误，在核武导致恐惧均衡的今天，各大国不会发生全面战争，至多是经济上的冷战和代理人战争。在科技发达生产力过剩的今天，大饥荒之类都是无稽之谈，寒冬是财富再分配，经济再平衡的过程，日子艰难，但活下去绝对没问题。\n\n悲观者正确，乐观者赢得未来\n中国真正发展起来靠的底色是中国人的勤奋，辅以杠杆，卷遍全球。我们从中低端已经在往高端走，从欧美人视角中，他们是很尴尬的，因为不能往下走，往上增长只能带动下一步的技术革命，否则永远都是缩量缩量，对我们则不然，我们的天花板远远还没达到。核心点就在于如何产业升级，外面全是蓝海。\n过往中国真正的人口红利同步全球，二战后的婴儿潮，50~70 年第一波。劳动力供给逆转大概要到 2040 年，届时 80 后不如退休，10 后成为职场主力。\n教育红利\n\n\n75后开始大学毕业的 96 年，那时大学毕业生 84w 人，只占当年出生人口的3.77%，占总人口的 1/1547，差不多是说千里挑一，毕业非常吃香\n\n\n85年，当年毕业 377w，占同年 18.1%，5 个人里一个大学生\n\n\n95 后，765w 应届生，36.46%的大学生渗透率，依然还是有他的价值\n\n\n00 后毕业人数 1174w，渗透率 60.2%，大学生比高中及以下的人更多，明显的产能过剩。在趋势面前头悬梁锥刺股以为混得文凭就可以了是自己骗自己\n\n\n增长红利\n只有有变化则就有机会，未来十年真正的增长红利在哪？技术红利和文化自信的红利。\n\n大学生红利。创业一定要做跟大学生相关的产业，如高端制造，中国高素质人才最多最便宜，供应链也最全。就业赛道也很好赚。80 后的红利是金融和移动互联网，90 和 00 后更偏向智能制造，转变思路，而不是办公室白领的模式，才能博得更多上市的机遇。\n70 后的退休红利，中国最幸福的一拨人，充分享受了经济的大发展，基本都买了房，还没赶上退休红利。有钱有房无负债，还有养老金。解决 70 后养老的生活，尤其是女性，则一定有赚。这波人在高端消费上花钱是如流水的。这波人和 50、60 不一样的，会自己消费不完全给儿女攒着。\n口红经济，娱乐诉求。游戏，自行车，算是一种消费降级。\n对孩子的经济，二胎。大尺寸 SUV，销售还是好。\n90 后的悦己经济：演唱会，增长了 400%。国潮，旅游…\n\n\n大部分人就是懒惰和懦弱嘛，生活在 1900 年前后，劝你去闯上海，劝你去租界扛麻袋给老外推独轮车，你会说，没办法呀，还是科举考试好，科举考试我可以做官，推独轮车多辛苦，被老外鄙视还挣不着钱，万一我在上海饿死了怎么办。劝你闯大洋彼岸，你又来一堆理由，论证来论证去还是科举最好。所以只需一个勇气就能改变很多事\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"办公AI生产力工具","url":"/%E5%8A%9E%E5%85%ACAI%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7.html","content":"\n员工生产力工具创新发展很快，现在普遍在营销宣传，产品设计，交互体验，编码提效方面老板们关注度很高，应秉行拿来主义，重视外部风险+催动变化。\n\n\n\n工作领域\n产品名称\n境内\n功能简介\n服务模式\n收费方式\n优劣势分析\n适用岗位\n\n\n\n\n图像生成\nfigma\n\n在线协作工具、支持 UI/UX设计、原型制作与版本控制的团队共同编辑协作。\n线上网页\n$540/年\n设计研发提效，主流产品更新及时，可预见性的 AI 功能强大\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\nMastergo\n$\\checkmark$\n专注于设计协作和项目管理的工具，提供从设计到开发的全流程支持。支持多人协作、设计系统管理及与开发团队的无缝对接\n线上网页\n￥2016/设计师/年\nAI 生成页面，设计研发提效，可本地部署，可导出\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n即梦\n$\\checkmark$\n字节跳动出品的 AI 生图、视频制作与分享平台Agent创作：一句话做任何你想做的任务生图：文生图/参考生图（角色特征、人像写真、主体识别、风格参考、人物姿势）生视频：文生视频/图生视频数字人：对口型视频+声音、视频动作模仿画布：图片精修（局部重绘、扩图、消除、抠图、细节修复）\n线上网页\n多套餐，连续包年 现 7 折优惠后：基础会员：￥659/年/人（约 4.3k 张图/月，216 个视频/月）标准会员￥1899/人年（月 16k 张图，800 视频）高级会员￥5199/人年（月 60k 张图，3k 视频）\n优：可进行创意广告、电影级制作，质量高生成速度快劣：视频质量略逊色于可灵平台\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n墨刀\n$\\checkmark$\n支持通过自然语言或草图快速生成原型页面，可在墨刀编辑器中二次调整，生成结构化页面同时支持与前端代码的联动1. 文本输入生成原型:\n私有化部署\n可企业版购买服务￥599/席位/年，也可私有化部署400-659-9879\n优：在需求初期、方案快速验证或内部演示阶段提升生产力，将构思快速转为具象原型劣：需求中后期生成效率可能无人为调整快\n产品类、设计类\n\n\n视频工具\nprinciple\n\n原型和交互设计工具，支持创建流畅动画和交互效果，提供直观界面和丰富的设计资源，帮助设计师快速制作高质量原型\n卓面软件\n$129/一次性(一年更新权限)，一年后继续更新续费99/年\n快速产出交互动画，提供 demo 演示\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\nLottie\n\n基于 Adobe After Effects 的开源动画库，支持将复杂动画导出为 JSON 格式，方便在移动应用和网页中实现流畅动画效果。应用于图标动画、加载动画和交互设计，帮助开发者快速实现高质量动态效果\n卓面软件\n$239.88/年\n优：更小内存动效文件输出劣：长城限制\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n可灵\n$\\checkmark$\n快手出品：AI 生图、 视频制作与分享平台生图：文生图/参考生图/风格转绘生视频：文生视频/图生视频/多模态编辑（替换元素等）生音：文生音效/视频生音效AI 试衣：AI 模特/AI换装其它：对口型/视频延长\n线上网页\n多套餐，连续包年 现 7 折优惠黄金会员：￥554/人年（每月3.3k 张图，33 个标准视频）铂金会员：￥2234/人年（月 15k 图，150 视频）钻石会员：￥5594/人年（月 40k 图，400 视频）黑金会员:￥11079/人年（月 130k 图，1300 个视频）\n优：视频生成质量和面面细致度高。通常生图用即梦，生视频用可灵劣：生图能力、图生图理解能力明显逊色即梦\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n剪映\n$\\checkmark$\n服务于内容运营视频剪辑工具、有丰富特效库和预设模板，能对视频进行只能剪辑与创作（消除、扩展、音频分离）,可一键生成字母，多轨编辑与合成\n桌面软件\n个人版：￥499/年30团队版：￥1.7w/年\n优：智能化程度高、支持数字人视频生成，画面 AI 消除，素材库丰富（音乐，特效、转场、滤镜、音色）劣：定位仅为已有视频的剪辑工具\n营销类\n\n\n\n小云雀\n$\\checkmark$\n剪映团队推出的内容创作 Agent，支持一句话生成短视频、数字人口播、AI 设计（文生图）、AI 换背景等，强调『自动化+可控性』结合，适用于电商带货、品牌营销等强网感内容生产\n桌面软件\n常规功能免费，高级功能￥759/年，或连续包月￥50/月\n创作门槛极低：一句话生成完整视频，零基础，生成内容传播力强流程可控：关键节点提供修改入口且通过自主任务完成最后结果的输出\n短视频运营、电商直播策划、初级剪辑师\n\n\n文稿起草\nPAMI\n$\\checkmark$\n面向产品经理的 AI 驱动原型设计工具，支持通过语言描述需求快速生成高保真原型、输出解决方案\n线上网页\n年费 ￥128.8\n适用于：部分解决方案思路扩充；基础场景需求说明，简单的流程图、时序图，页面原型图的快速调整布局劣：复杂方案无法直接生成使用\n产品类、设计类\n\n\n\nkimi\n$\\checkmark$\n擅长超长文本处理、多轮对话优化，适用于通用类长文写作和资料分析场景（总结、研报），PPT 生成能力佳\n线上网页\n个人免费、企业级 API 接口按量计费\n优：支持 200 万字上下文，适配 PDF、word\\excel\\ppt等多种文件格式，能处理各类复杂文档劣：文档数量过多或大小超限影响输出表现，图片识别解析能力有限\n项目类、产品类\n\n\n\nwps AI\n$\\checkmark$\n支持团队知识库的智能知识问答、支持特色公文 AI，有专属政务模型(13B)，生成内容更符合党政公文需求\n线上网页、桌面软件\n支持年度订阅、按用户数或场地授权模式\n优：基于 WPS Office 客户端使用，用户体验友好劣：需集中部署 AI 服务，结合可调优的 WPS 文档中台\n各类岗位\n\n\n音频工具\n豆包\n$\\checkmark$\n语音交互类 AI 产品，擅长语音识别，语音合成等\n线上网页、桌面软件、移动 App\n基础功能免费，企业使用按调用量收费\n优：语音识别准确率高，响应速度快劣：复杂语音场景下表现待提升，个性化定制能力有限\n客服类、营销类、宣传类\n\n\n\n讯飞听见\n$\\checkmark$\n语音交互领先企业，提供语音识别、合成、翻译等多种语音 AI 服务\n线上网页、API 或 SDK\n个人限额免费、企业套餐 960 小时/人年起步，可按定制化解决方案收费\n优：老牌头部 TTS 厂商，识别准确率 98%，支持 11 种语言，17 类专业领域优化，功能稳定劣：多模态能力弱，高端定制化解决方案价格高\n客服类、培训类（多会议办公企业）\n\n\nExcel 分析\n商汤小浣熊\n$\\checkmark$\n对 Excel、CSV、Json文件进行数据处理、建模分析、数据统计分析。分析结果可视化展示，除数据文件外科支持连接数据库进行实时分析\n线上网页、桌面软件、SDK 或 API\n按并发用户量阶梯计费年度订阅、也支持永久许可\n优：用代码解释器方案，具数据分析规划和反思机制，数据分析准确率高，支持多种数据格式，多文件/多数据表关联分析，数据可视化图标样式丰富劣：与 WPS 未对接，深度分析能力仍然有限\n经营分析、销售、采购、营销、财务、IT、人力资源、项目管理等\n\n\nPPT 生成\niSlide AI 与 PPT 插件\n$\\checkmark$\n有企业专属设计平台和中央品牌素材库，将 VI 规范（字体、颜色）预置，自动应用，保持品牌输出一致性。管理和数据分析能力强：通过统一的权限管理，精细控制不同团队对模板和素材的访问、使用权限。后台仪表盘监控素材库使用情况，为优化企业内若资产提供数据支撑\n线上网页、桌面软件、SDK 或 API\n首年 ￥68 万起，个性化定制按实际开发时间计费\n优：降低专业门槛，解决只会做内容，不会做设计的普遍痛点。具有海量资源库和强品牌一致性管控劣：不满足深度定制个性化生成需求\n市场营销、销售、产品经理、人力资源、财务和数据分析、企业高管\n\n\n代码生成\ncursor\n\n美国 Anysphere 公司开发的 AI 编程工具，能根据自然语言描述生成代码，实现代码智能补全、全工程级理解等\n线上网页、桌面软件\n订阅制，企业版按账户 $384/年\n优：集成 GPT-4 和 Claude3.5 双引擎，代码生成准确率高，能实现全工程级理解，与 VSCode 无缝集成劣：对于复杂需求需多次细化才能达到理想效果\n开发岗、编程初学者、数据分析师\n\n\n\nTRAE\n$\\checkmark$\n字节编程工具，能理解需求，调动工具，独立完成开发任务的 AI 工程师，可快速搭建 Demo\n桌面软件\n\n劣：易用性不如 cursor\n研发，产品、经设计师\n\n\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI"]},{"title":"十年看趋势","url":"/%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9C%8B%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF.html","content":"\n万元美金时代，技术的趋势，让文章说的部分内容有接近实现的可能，有些夸张的做了摘取删减，同议题的主题合并表达。毕竟做研判，都是外行看内行。保持一直开放的头脑是我们一直要追求的。\n\n2020，中国在全球疫情下表现非凡，也直面了贸易新格局的焦头烂额挑战。10年后看今天，未来那辉煌的起点，从今天开始。\n\n芯片行业巨变\nIntel被人工智能浪潮抛下，几成定局，这是技术更替带来的结果，也向我们揭示了，企业一旦停止前沿技术布局，就注定跟不上这个时代\n\n虚实融合的世界努力尝试\nIphone12将激光雷达带到手机上，只相当于一个起步，工业化上更有用，但挡不住人类一切娱乐化的决心\n人工智能继续加码发展\nAI医疗风口正在到来\n例如通过对眼底的观察来判断并筛查早期糖尿病，各种AI技术都将下到AI医疗的赛道，促成蓬勃发展，股市会为之疯狂\nAI技术全面渗透各行业\n有成本革命的大动机\n无人机的战争理论革命\n未来战争规则会发生巨变，投入巨额经费，研发高顶尖导弹的专家可能没意识到，一堆廉价无人机机海战术是他们的新挑战\n智能制造\n3D打印，印刷技术造显示屏幕等。印刷原理虽然简单，但制造里有大量的高科技，有非常多的know-how在里面，这是中国制造优势的体现。制造也是高科技，也要前瞻性布局，提前预埋下一轮新技术\n生物科技经历一场产业变革\n喊了20多年的生物的世纪，慢慢在降临。生物技术催生的产业变革，也是一大high点，化学药–&gt;生物药–&gt;生物治疗\n基因编辑也在产业结合，人们通过健康管理和科技手段越来越长寿\n能源焦虑或被攻克\n清洁能源在慢慢缓解能源焦虑，未来的终极解决方案是可燃冰与可控核聚变，这些还远。临时解页岩气和太阳能可以顶一小段\n人造肉\n豆制品模仿肉的口感，后续合成生物学可能直接培育肉，人类贪婪的食欲和成本可以得到一个更好的平衡。\n全球化仍是大概率事件\n逆全球化声音存在，但资本还是推动全球化隐性回归，科技全球化还是大概率事件，由奢入简难。\n\n2024年宣导的新型工业化\n\n人形机器人\n脑机接口\n元宇宙\n下一代互联网\n6G\n量子科技\n原子级制造\n深空海天开发\n\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["IT","生物"]},{"title":"协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记","url":"/%E5%8D%8F%E5%90%8C%E8%BF%87%E6%BB%A4%E5%B0%8F%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\nCollaborative filtering\n\n\n10年之前就接触了协同过滤的概念内容，但常学常新。最近因为要在Spark MLlib中浅显应用一把，发现整体的工业界做法已经进步了很多。脑中知识的框架又有更新，记录下来，利于随机存取与向外概念贩售。\n术语表\n显性反馈\n\n用户明确表示对物品喜好的行为\n\n隐性反馈\n\n不能明确反应用户喜好的行为。在许多的现实生活中的很多场景中，我们常常只能接触到隐性的反馈。如浏览，点击，购买，喜欢，分享\n\n\n两大方向\nMemory-based\n这个普及的很多了，基于关注的目标，又分基于用户和基于项目两大类。除非是为了交友，否则都会转向项目推荐的数据变现目的地，一个相似消费过的东西（也靠留下的人的痕迹），一个相似的人消费过的东西。\n基于用户\n\n通过用户对共同物品的“主观价值”来筛选相似用户，再互补评分高的物品，从而达到推荐物品（项目）的目的\n\n比较直观的协同过滤，是基于用户这一种，通过“臭味相投”的线索来做。\n基于项目\n\n通过用户集体对商品集的评价，在物品的角度上去寻找相似度高的物品，达到推荐物品的效果\n\n物品相似度的计算用上协同过滤，是基于用户的一种变体。通过查看哪些人喜欢某一特定物品，再看这些人喜欢哪些其它物品来决定物品距离（用相似度概念不贴切）。这种变体仅相当于数据结构的反转。\n&#123; &quot;jim&quot;:&#123;&quot;a&quot;:2.5,&quot;b&quot;:3.5&#125;, &quot;kate&quot;:&#123;&quot;a&quot;:3.0,&quot;b&quot;:3.5&#125;&#125;\n转变成\n&#123; &quot;a&quot;:&#123;&quot;jim&quot;:2.5,&quot;kate&quot;:3.0&#125;, &quot;b&quot;:&#123;&quot;jim&quot;:3.5,&quot;kate&quot;:3.5&#125;&#125;\n最终计算一个物品与物品之间距离的矩阵表格\n映射现实-此反转运用在帮零售商找到清仓物品的潜在客户方面，很直观。\n总结\n且一般来说，用户行为有更加明显的冷启动问题，且绝大部份用户都只生产过稀疏的显性反馈记录（评价评分），对数据集的使用利用度来说，尚不及基于项目的方式（起码热门物品集，有显性反馈的可能性较大）。\n基于物品的计算，就更加聚焦高效。数据积累到一定量，物品的特征定义就更加稳定，物品间的比较不会像用户间的比较那么频繁变化，无需不停计算与每样物品最相近的其它物品，也可以削峰平谷的更高效利用计算资源。\n弱势\n\n物品之间的相关性，随着特征维度的增加，其计算量并不是线性增加\n在稀疏数据集上，计算结果随着增减向量维度，计算结果不稳定\n\nModel-based\n回应如上弱势，大家就想到更线性更通用的解法来做这个事情，这样模型就出场了。模型里常见的是矩阵分解。\n将用户和物品的矩阵，分解为用户因子矩阵和项目因子矩阵两个矩阵的乘积（两个矩阵乘回去，期望得到一个饱满的用户评分矩阵）。什么是项目因子乘积，咱们来举几个例子图就比较容易理解了。\n稀疏数据集\n\n\n单曲循环=5, 分享=4, 收藏=3, 主动播放=2 , 听完=1, 跳过=-2 , 拉黑=-5\n\n如上，原始用户数据集稀疏，很难相互推荐（用户本身听过的歌就不够多），现在目标就是要让数据饱满起来。\n矩阵分解的数学基础是行列式变换：行变换相当于A左乘一个矩阵，矩阵A进行列变换等价于矩阵A右乘一个矩阵，因此矩阵A可以表示为$A=PEQ=PQ$（E是标准阵）\n$n\\times m \\approx (n\\times k) \\times (k\\times m)$\n\n$m$ 是用户数，$n$ 是音乐数量，左侧矩阵是用户对音乐的评分，右侧是音乐在隐空间的表达和用户在隐空间的表达，二者结果尽可能逼近左侧。即由抽取的用户属性和音乐属性，尽可能还原出大型评分矩阵。这一分解通常也被称为 UV 分解\n\n咱上面接着的例子展开，$k$ 矩阵，可以看作可量化的音乐风格因子。\n用户因子\n\n\n\n\n小清新\n重口味\n优雅\n伤感\n五月天\n\n\n\n\n张三\n0.6\n0.8\n0.1\n0.1\n0.7\n\n\n李四\n0.1\n0\n0.9\n0.1\n0.2\n\n\n王五\n0.5\n0.7\n0.9\n0.9\n0\n\n\n\n项目因子\n\n\n\n\n小清新\n重口味\n优雅\n伤感\n五月天\n\n\n\n\n音乐A\n0.9\n0.1\n0.2\n0.4\n0\n\n\n音乐B\n0.5\n0.6\n0.1\n0.9\n1\n\n\n音乐C\n0.1\n0.2\n0.5\n0.1\n0\n\n\n\n你可以用最大似然的办法来计算这些权重。\n求权重矩阵\nALS\n\nAlternating Least Squares - 交替最小二乘\n\n因为两个权重矩阵都是未知的，无法直接求得，所以每次要假设一个矩阵已知，做最小二乘迭代，交替进行。（ALS是一种对目标函数进行优化的方法，通过先固定其他维度，在单独对某一维度进行更新）\nSVD\n\nSingular Value Decomposition - 奇异值分解\n\n略\nSpark内置协同过滤算法\nMLlib的ALS Demo例子，这个例子排版清晰，步骤细致，做初步试验学习是最好的参照。Spark的MLlib，实现的ALS算法，已经提供了显性和隐性反馈的版本，可通过implicitPrefs =true|false(默认)来指定。\n内置ALS数据集包含的行格式：电影编号，用户编号，用户电影评分，uinxtime时间戳\n还有一个Java版本的实现文章\n显隐反馈的策略区别\n数据处理/看待的策略角度不同。\n\n\n当你提供的是显性反馈时，相当于直接对你的评级数据进行建模求权重；\n\n\n而隐式反馈时将数据集看作代表强度的数字化用户行为观察（如点击次数或某人观看项目的累积时间），这些数字与观察到的用户偏好的置信水平相关，而不是明确与评分评级有关。\n\n\n当implicitPrefs = true时，还有一个配套参数 alpha（默认值1.0，也就是不干预训练结果），用来与最终模型训练结果输出前相乘。很多地方描述称做控制偏好观察中的 基线置信度，提法直观阅读比较绕，特作前面的实际作用机制说明。\n补记：CTR中流行FM算法的特点\nFM（Factorization Machine）是由Konstanz大学Steffen Rendle于2010年最早提出的，旨在解决稀疏数据下的特征组合问题。经过One-Hot编码之后，大部分样本数据特征是比较稀疏的，特征空间还变得更大。某些特征经过关联之后，与Label之间的相关性就会提高，那么引入特征组合就非常具有意义了。\n在FM模型之前，CTR预估最常用的模型是SVM和LR（包括用GBDT给它们提取非线性特征），SVM和LR都是线性模型（SVM理论上可以引入核函数从而引入非线性，但由于非常高维的稀疏特征向量使得它很容易过拟合，故实际运用起来不太顺手），在特征关联领域，怎么建模二阶，三阶甚至更高阶非线性的关系就是预估更加准确的关键点。\n\n因为其实际上确有相关性\n\n如吃饭时间食谱类App下载量比平时大: App类别和时间的二阶关系\n年轻男性更喜欢设计类游戏: 年龄，性别，游戏类别的三阶关系\n\n\nFM通过给每个特征引入一个低维稠密的隐向量来减少二阶特征交互的参数个数，同时实现信息共享，使得在非常稀疏的特征向量上的学习更加容易泛化。理论上FM可以建模二阶以上的特征交互，但是由于计算量急剧增加，实际一般只用二阶的模型。\n\n直观上看，FM的复杂度是 $O(kn^2)$。但是，FM的二次项可以化简，其复杂度可以优化到 O(kn)。由此可见，FM可以在线性时间对新样本作出预测\n\nFM可以模拟二阶多项式核的SVM模型，MF模型，SVD++模型等，相比SVM的二阶多项式核而言，FM在样本稀疏的情况下是有优势的。FM的训练/预测 复杂度是线性的，而二阶多项式核SVM需要计算核矩阵，核矩阵复杂度就是$\\mathcal{O}(n^2)$。\n参考补充\n1.CSDN 推荐算法（一）——音乐歌单智能推荐 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI","算法"]},{"title":"卓有成效的管理者","url":"/%E5%8D%93%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%95%88%E7%9A%84%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%80%85.html","content":"\n\n借用别人一张图做封面，作者的笔记脑图做得很细很好\n\n此书很久之前就读过，很有启发性，尤其是组织绩效在组织之外，要事为先已记得很熟悉。最近恰逢机会重读，依然觉得所言非虚，总结的不错，真所谓常读常新（如以前不太注意的：找到自己做得特别好的事，你最擅长做的事，理顺自己的生活与事业。只针对妨碍长处发挥的短处进行改进），的确是一本经典书籍，索性提炼一些作为读书笔记。\n\n管理的书籍一般都是讲如何管理别人，本书讲的却是如何让管理者管理自己，使管理者本身变得卓有成效。\n\n术语前提\n管理者\n\n尽力铺在少数几个影响最重大优先任务的人，都是管理者\n不生产“实物”的知识工作者其实都是管理者，他们作为专才，必须让自己生产的片段发挥成效（搞清楚谁会使用自己的产出）。\n\n另外，掌握知识的人始终应承担起让人理解的责任，要关心知识的可用性。\n\n\n\n组织\n\n\n组织是社会的器官，功能是对外部环境做出贡献。现代文明建立在大型组织基础上，需要大量合适的人员，上帝造人并不是为了给组织提供资源，其规格未必正好适合他们要完成的任务，大致匹配就已是最好的情况\n\n\n组织作为一种工具，克服每个人在“寿命和贡献”上的限度，同时也是使个人才干得以增值的工具。个人的知识被组织吸收，可以成为其他知识工作者做好事情的动力和资源。\n\n\n\n组织伴生的结构性问题\n\n一个浪费时间的因素，是组织结构缺陷，表现就是会议太多。会议本质是对组织结构有缺陷做所做的补救（无缺陷：人人知晓自自己完成工作需要知晓的事，和获得开展工作所需的资源），之所以开会，因为处理某个情境所需的知识和经验需要把多个人拼成整体。\n另一个组织时间浪费常因人员过剩而起，普遍的情况是人太多导致有效性差，因为越多的时间用于“交流”而不是工作。\n\n人才\n\n全才从来就是奇缺的，人类历史清晰表明，供应充足的只有各方面能力平平的人，所以组织里能用的顶多是在某一方面表现出色的人。但组织里的人有能力成为多少有点有效性的管理者（如果有效性是一种像音乐和绘画一样的天赋，现代文明就会变得非常脆弱，不堪一击）。\n现在每个学科领域都很庞大，大到人们终其一生都研究不完，各方还都很容易狭窄自得（可能同是物理学家，却彼此难弄懂对方关心的是什么问题）\n且在人类的各个领域，领导者与普通人间的差距常固定不变。\n\n总纲\n全书有一个完整的逻辑\n\n组织的命运系于成果\n组织成果源于外部机会，源于组织的有效决策，源于人的长处的发现与发挥，源于组织对人”自我发展“的激励。最终这一切源于管理者”自我管理“的有效性\n管理者的有效性作为一种习惯是可以学会的\n\n掌握自己的时间，进而管理自己。因为最稀缺的是时间，管理者的时间通常只属于别人，必须要事优先（集中少数重要的领域）。\n善用上下左右的长处，善于抓住形势，且不做自己不擅长的事。\n决策的正确与否是卓有成效的关键…将理念诉诸于实践\n\n\n\n管理者有效性的发展，是对组织的目标和方向的挑战，有了这种挑战精神，就能转移视线：由专注于问题转而重视机会，由见人之短转而用人所长。组织到了这一境界，会对外界的优秀人才产生吸引力，内部既有的人也将获得更大的激励，做出更大贡献。\n有效管理者间的风格差别之大和无效管理者间差别之大别无二致，但共同点是他们有一些做法能让手上的资源和自身能力变得有效。有效是一种习惯，也就是惯常做法，学会就是练习，练习，再练习。\n成为大师可能需要特别的天赋，但如果只要做到有效，需要的只是熟练，也就是掌握音阶而已。（哪怕是伟大的钢琴家，如果不练习音阶，而且是反复练习，也弹不好莫扎特的曲子），这些音阶也就是提高时间的有效性，立足外部成果，要事为先；善用长处，有效决策。\n善用有限的时间\n清楚自己时间花在哪里，系统地管理为数不多的自主可控的时间。\n时间的特殊特性\n\n\n时间是一种独特的资源，供给弹性为0，且是稀缺资源，容易流失。\n\n相较而言，资金都不算是稀缺资源，在重视管理的场景，时间的特殊性才是真正意义上的稀缺资源。\n现实世界资金供给通常是过剩的，供给并不是制约经济增长和活动的因素，资金的需求才是。\n\n\n\n要想取得有效性，特别是知识工作者和管理者，必须有大块时间可供利用，支离破碎的时间不足以成事。\n\n\n创新和变革对时间的过度需求\n现在各个国家的管理者工作时间都是比过去更长，出现此情况的重要原因是：\n\n只有不断创新和变革的经济才可能为人们提供高水准的生活\n创新和变革对管理者的时间要求非常高。如果时间短促，一个人就只能考虑他已经熟悉的事，只能做他曾经做过的事\n\n有效性的迫切性\n工作的失效/失败，往往因为没足够时间去思考如何做正确的事或把事做正确：管理者的时间往往被掠夺，限于日常事务和内部复杂的关系中，疲于奔命，被现实压力牵着鼻子走，以致忽略了产生成果的方向/外部联系。进一步讲，随着企业规模扩大，内部专业化分工深化，更看不到外部的机会和协同的必要。\n有效性最高的人，和其他人拥有的时间其它一样多，差别在于他们的时间利用的更好。善用时间的管理者，须排除干扰，最终学会：安排时间，学会如何拒绝，周旋和规避，如何应对来自他人的压力，集中时间和精力于一件值得做的事。不要把时间弄碎了，零星时间等于没有时间。\n授权时把可由别人做的事情交付给别人，这样才能做真正由自己做的事，此为有效性改进的一大法门。大胆减少无谓的工作，绝对无损于有效性\n对中老年的建议\n中年人或老年人最好还是早睡早起。早起比开夜车要好，晚上回家加班的情况虽然非常普遍，但恰恰是时间管理最差的一种情形，逃避了管理白天的工作时间。\n在贡献上下功夫\n一切成果都存在于组织之外，做出外部贡献，才能算有所成就：管理者的贡献被利用，不是在组织内，而是在横向组织外（旁系人士）或上级领导能利用其贡献。要主动接触这些人。\n重视贡献是一种意识，决定了管理工作的有效性。脑子里要装的是成果而不是工作本身，不能只顾着往下看（关注对外的贡献，而不是只为完成工作：哪些成果是我们理当提供的，而不是想工作需要用哪些方法和工具），对整个组织的绩效承担责任才是名副其实的“高管”。所有组织都需在三个重要方面取得绩效：\n\n取得直接成果\n确立并不断强化价值\n培育和开发将来需要的人才\n\n组织在其中任何一个方面缺少绩效，都会走向衰落，最后灭亡。\n如果领导者绩效突出，普通人也会随之提高涨。提高一个领导者的绩效，比提高一群人的绩效容易。\n创造成果的友情提醒\n添加新人，多数情况下应增添在已有成规可循的工作上。新工作应责成能证明有能力的人来负责。一项新工作，本身就是一场赌博，倘若另聘新人来做，更是赌上加赌。\n善用长处\n通才（精而后博的人与所谓的通才不同）和天才一样，可遇不可求。不能拔高能力的标准和期望万能的天才，不是期望人的能力突然提高。世上没有“能人”这回事，“能在哪里”才是关键所在。\n对我们的要求和启发是：以长处立身处世，利用同事，下属，上司的长处及情境中的有利因素，即在当下形势下能去做的事\n明白自己和别人的长处，关键不是将不胜任变成优秀。只能通过改进工作的手段充分发挥人的能力\n\n只想避免短处，那所领导的组织最终必是平庸的，才情越高的人，缺点往往越多\n\n学会善用专精某一领域的人，我们既不能增加资源的供应量，就应设法增加资源的产出量，也就是必须提高有效性。 这里的有效性，是使能力和知识资源能产生更多更好成果的一种手段。对于能力和知识这些资源，我们不能增加它的供给，提高有效性即是提高它的产出质量的唯一方法。\n向上管理\n下级通常想要”改造“上级，试图让上级克服其短处。有效的下级不会那样做，且明白，上级也是人，有他取得有效性的方式。想要了解上级长处并使其富有成效，需做出改变的通常是“方式”而不是“内容”。且经验表明，下级自己设置的目标几乎从来不同于上级对他们的期望。\n设法发挥上司的长处，从正确事情着手，以上司能接受的方式向其提出建议；帮助上司晋升多数情况是下属成功的捷径，你要知道哪怕逼走上级通常也是空降替代。\n要事为先\nFirst thing first, do one thing at a time\n要事优先的重要原则是：\n\n\n注重未来而不是现实/过去，注重机会而不是现实压力。\n\n\n对于外部情况，真正重要的不是趋势，而是趋势的转变。趋势的转变才是决定一个机构及其努力的成败关键\n\n可量化的东西基本是组织内部的\n外部事件通常是难量化的，本质是重要且相关的外部事件通常是定性的，还没有成为事实，无法加以量化（所谓事实就是有人定义和分类的事情，特别是赋予相关性），量化必须先有概念，从无数现象中抽象出某个具体的方面进行命名，计量。\n趋势的变化只能去感知，无法加以计数定义分类。强加分类虽然能取得数字，但研判与真实行为并不相符。\n\n\n\n这就引出的重要的结论：专注于机会，而不是问题。\n问题vs机会的视角\n当然问题必须被解决，不能藏着掖着。解决问题并不能创造出成果，充其量是防止损失。只有利用好机会，才能创造成果。需要将变化视作机会而非威胁，将变化用作发展的机会。\n除非是真正的大灾难，否则管理层会议第一页应首先讨论机会而不是问题。\n有效管理者在启动一项新活动之前，会砍掉一项旧活动，这对于组织的“体重控制“很有必要。社会组织和生物体一样，有必要保持精干和强健。\n要事原则升华\n\n起决定作用的因素是勇气而不是分析，调集各方的努力去做对未来贡献最大的一件事。独特的贡献，说白了就是一个没有你的领导就不会有的重大决策。\n\n\n选择自己的方向，而不是随波逐流\n目标高远，做可以带来不同的事，而不是“安全”，容易的事//科学家的事迹表明成就取决于追逐机会的勇气，而不是科研能力\n\n在一家垄断企业内部，也可通过组织安排，让未来业务与当前业务产生竞争，就像贝尔实验室就是首个以淘汰现有产品和技术为目标的实验室\n\n\n\n有效决策的要素\n\n\n了解问题的性质，若是经常性的/共性问题，只有通过建立规则或原则的决策，才能解决。\n\n从混乱中发现模式，站高点，做出少数具有共性，可用于大量具体情境的决策。简而言之，就是从混乱中提炼概念。\n\n\n\n找出解决问题时必须满足的界线（边界条件），这是最难的一步。而最危险的决策是假设一切都不出差错才可能奏效的决策（没有任何边界条件）\n\n\n先想清楚什么是正确，解决方案是什么，再去思考需做出那些妥协，调整和让步，才能让决策被接受\n\n\n需兼顾到相关的执行措施，让决策变成可以被贯彻的行动。把决策转化为有效行动通常是最耗时的一步，除非一开始就把行动安排融合到决策中，否则决策就不会有效，只是良好的愿望。\n\n行动计划违反约束，通常无效，要意识到灵活性。检查点安排在计划的中间点和终点是必不可少的。拿破仑说过，没有哪场胜仗是按计划取得的，但他还是会比任何将军都精心部署每一次战斗。没有行动计划，管理者就会成为事件的囚徒。\n\n\n\n执行中重视反馈，建立“反馈机制”，用事情的实际发展情况检验决策的正确性，有效期和有效性\n\n\n计算机不能替代感知\n计算机是一种逻辑运算机器，运算能力强，但外部发生的重要事件无法用计算机等逻辑运算系统可以识别的格式录入去处理。\n感知能力是人类的优势所在。危险在于，管理者轻视那些不能简化成计算机逻辑的语言的信息和刺激，对感知（事件本身）无动于衷，等成为事实后才注意到。如此这般，海量计算机信息反倒会阻断管理者通往真实世界的路。\n所以需要管理者努力感知外部世界，否则就会被内部情况遮蔽双眼，看不到真正的现实。\n勉励\n有效管理者通过专注于贡献突破自己，这就要求管理者“超越自己的专业领域，有限的技能，自己的团队，把注意力投向整个组织的绩效”。就如下面三个石匠的故事：\n\n我在挣钱糊口\n我在干最漂亮的石匠活\n我在建造大教堂。\n\n最后一个石匠才是有望取得有效性的人，他专注的是外部，是贡献。\n补充\n几个方向管理的本质\n\n向上管理：获取授权\n横向管理：共识\n向下管理：辅导，激励\n\n如何进行工作汇报\n谁来听：对象风格很重要\nD掌控驾驭型：老虎\n\n变现风格：目标明确，反应迅速\n如董明珠，任正非，王健林，李嘉诚。不表扬不讲感情，要结果，干得好是应该的；生而为工作，不服就干。做决定快，理性。\n\n单刀直入，教人如何达到目标、有说服力，效率高\n\n决策要点\n\n\n直接，简短，重点式的答复\n强调利益，关注业务及成果\n提供挑战，自由及机会\n问”什么？“，而非”如何？“\n\nI魅力表现型：孔雀\n\n表现风格：热爱交际，幽默风趣\n如：马云，后来的雷军，口若悬河聊未来。做决定快，感性。\n\n愿意花点时间了解，喜欢漂亮舒服的东西，有眼光，有乐趣，活力十足\n\n决策要点\n\n\n关注团体而非个人，重视整体而非细节\n提供社交的活动，提供发表意见的机会，提供支持\n\nC思想家分析型：猫头鹰\n\n表现风格：讲究条理，追求卓越\n如马化腾，张一鸣。流程标准逻辑体系。做决定慢，理性。\n\n单刀直入，谨慎且有条不紊，精确完整，有耐性\n\n决策要点\n\n\n\n事先准备，分析利弊得失\n\n\n关注任务，对事不对人\n\n\n系统的方式，一致性的\n\n\nS追随者亲和型：考拉\n\n表现风格：喜好和平，迁就他人\n如丁磊，这种是一把手最少见的，更适合当最好的二把手。韧性强，能忍受另外三类人。做决定慢，感性。\n\n愿意花点时间了解，希望一起参与，温暖诚挚\n\n决策要点\n\n诚恳，澄清事实，耐心引导出目标，保留弹性，关注人机关系\n讲什么：内容\n思考的出发点：站在领导的角度思考\n怎么准备材料\n\n明确任务目的\n思考任务价值\n分析决策风格\n思考呈现逻辑\n怎样开展工作\n\n要结果\n进行决策\n\n好的反馈 : 同意，去做吧；我选方案X；还行，先试试吧；方向是对的，细节还要再看看\n差的反馈：这事你不要做了，逻辑混乱，回去重做\n\n通报进展\n\n好的反馈：知道了\n不好的反馈：这个不行\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"博弈知识 and 预测收敛法","url":"/%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%20and%20%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E6%94%B6%E6%95%9B%E6%B3%95.html","content":"\n人脑云计算：没大数据时如何预测\n土法炼钢-德菲尔法\n\n把专家的独立观点不断收敛\n\n\n从各领域邀请20位权威专家，预测最高，最低，最可能三个值\n独立预测，不要召专家在一起开会讨论，避免相互影响\n统计回归：归纳整理后，匿名反馈给各位专家，然后请专家参考修正自己的预测。如此往复几次，一般到第四次预测时，大部分专家已不再修改自己的意见，彼此的预测也越来越接近（收敛）\n分析结果，用“主观概率加权平均法”，最低25%权重，最高25%权重，最可能50%权重，加权求和，得到你想要的预测值。\n\n在20世纪中期，此套方法就在发生功效，准确预测朝鲜战争的结果。此套方法可充分利用专家的专业判断，在一些很难定量分析预测的问题上，实现“人脑云计算”，获得相对准确的预测结果。使用的注意事项是专家可以多样化，专家不一定是咨询公司，也是可以是一线管理人员，可以是客户，但他们必须独立给出预测。\n拍卖博弈\n\n拍卖博弈的和核心逻辑，就是在不完全信息博弈中，尽量引发博弈者们自相残杀，获得最高收益。\n英国式拍卖\n从底价开始，价高者得的拍卖模式。最为常见，拍卖行的古董拍卖，慈善晚宴善品拍卖，都是英国式拍卖。如果担心成交价过低，可设定一个保留价，没超过保留价，交易作废。\n荷兰式拍卖\n因荷兰人用这种方法拍卖郁金香而得名。郁金香的价值随着时间流逝不断递减，卖家逐步降价，达到买家心理价位而成交。\n现实中荷兰拍并不多见，但经常做采购招标架构的人，可以试试荷兰式拍卖和日本式拍卖的综合体。\n日本式拍卖指的是，只有上一轮出价者，才能参与下一轮出价。\n密封式拍卖\n密封的荷兰式拍卖，最低价中标，又叫暗标\n密封的英国式拍卖，最高价中标，又叫暗拍，如车牌竞拍。\n不知道别人的出价，最好直接叫出接近自己心理价位的报价，以提高成交机会。\n维克瑞拍卖\n又称第二价格密封式拍卖，出价最高者竞拍成功，但只用支付第二高的报价，而不是他自己的报价。因为密封式会让拍卖者保守地写出略低于自己心理价位的最高价。\n\n竞价排名广告，就是维克瑞拍卖。\n\n拍卖美元：竞合与赢家通吃\n\n价高者得，出价次高者，也要支付他的报价\n\n是一个著名的博弈陷阱，机制设计，就是让第一名赢家通吃，第二名颗粒无收，必然导致前两名非理性竞价，最后玩家双输，庄家获益。\n如何跳出此博弈陷阱？\n\n不要参与。一旦参与，就有被套牢的可能性\n出价不到50美分时，玩家结成同盟，分享收益\n若同盟很难达成，第一个人直接出价1美元，不赚不赔，让其它玩家直接失去出价的意义\n两家纠缠时，例如0.95和1美元，直接报价2美元，用损失1美元的代价终止游戏，避免纠缠升级到失控\n\n资本的互搏补贴大战，最后赢家通吃。它们不断公布自己已获得巨额融资，就相当于拍卖美元游戏中从0.95美元直接报到2美元，希望吓退对手。但谁也不让步，最后两家出价都要突破临界点时，坐下来谈判，停止出价，合并分享市场。\n打破零和博弈\n零和博弈存在吗？存在，只在封闭系统内部。如何避免？\n\n打开封闭系统，吃碗里，看锅里，想田里，寻求增量。有了外来的太阳能，地球上所有生物才不是零和博弈\n确定存量分配规则，不容博弈。交通规则，逃生顺序等都是打破零和的策略。开公司，先分钱，再赚钱，也是同样道理，分钱逻辑确定后，不容博弈，大家才会去想怎么创造增量。\n\n博弈策略优选：一报还一报\n囚徒困境，明明合作对双方有利，但囚徒往往因为自私和不信任而选择背叛，两败俱伤\n在没有被欺骗之前永远不要主动欺骗他人，如果对手选择背叛，立刻反击；如果对手补偿，不计前嫌继续合作。这样的清晰规则会激发对手的合作动机。\n将应对囚徒困境的博弈策略写成电脑程序，捉对厮杀，这个一报还一报策略在十几万次重复博弈中获得了冠军，多次合作后突然背叛的狡猾策略，总是选择合作的老好人策略都干不过它，屹立20年至今无敌。其基本逻辑是\n\n第一回合采取合作策略，然后每一回合都采取上一回合对手的策略\n\n这也是所谓的：人不犯我，我不犯人，人若犯我，我必犯人。\n启发\n这实验给了很多人启发，让大家重新相信：一报还一报，好人终有好报。\n我们看看以德报怨的论语记载\n\n以德报怨，何如？\n子曰: 何以报德？以直报怨，以德报德\n\n翻译成白话是：有人问以善行报恶行，怎么样，孔子说：那用什么回报善行？用适当的惩罚回报恶行，用善行回报善行。\n这跟博弈论策略是一致的。本性善良（严格兑现合作承诺）- 以直报怨-以德报德-规则清晰（毫不犹豫坚决执行）\n麦穗理论：放弃最优决策追求满意决策\n最优决策只在理论上存在，要追求“满意决策”，用37%的时间找到最基本的满意标准，用剩下的时间选择第一个好于这个标准的。\n\n将麦田分三段，走过第一段麦田时，只观察不下手，在心中将麦穗分为大中小三类。\n第二段时还是不下手，验证第一段的标准\n第三段，摘下遇到的第一支属于大类中的麦穗，不再寻找最优方案。可能不是最大的一支，但可心满意足地走完全程\n\n放到寻找人生伴侣的算法中，如果相信这套理论，只有20年时间给你做选择（20-40，过了就成黄花菜了），那么可以用20年中的37%，也就是7.4年交往不同的男士，到27岁时，确定最基本的满意标准，然后嫁给往后第一个好于这个标准的男士，并不再寻找更优方案。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["方法论"]},{"title":"卫将军骠骑列传说开去","url":"/%E5%8D%AB%E5%B0%86%E5%86%9B%E9%AA%A0%E9%AA%91%E5%88%97%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4%E5%BC%80%E5%8E%BB.html","content":"\n不可胜在我，可胜在敌\n2020读过 华杉讲透《孙子兵法》，综合多家批注，觉得讲的很好。且兵法作为传统文化，金句很多，作为华人诵记再合适不过。写本文也是因为感触 “不可胜在我，可胜在敌”的审慎战争观，联系牵引出霍去病的故事，点线面的再多说一些而成。\n\n在华衫这本书中，对于正奇，关于虚实，关于战略，有足够精辟的解释，推荐有兴趣的都可以去读读\n\n在孙子的战争观中，很多历史上无赫赫杀伐记录的将军，没准够格可称为好将军\n\n曹操语：善战者，无赫赫之功\n孙子语：故善战者之胜也，无智名，无勇功。先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜，正所谓不可胜在我，可胜在敌。\n\n武帝要向冠军侯讲授孙、吴兵法，被其回应：打仗看方针策略就够了，不用尽学古兵法。果真天才不需理由，主角光环加身？遂搜史记证实，发现司马迁对卫青和冠军侯笔法态度还不同，有意思嘿，毕竟司马迁写书那会冠军侯也才过世十几年。\n兵书可是垄断资源\n\n唐之前，兵神首推姜太公，国家祭祀中多以姜太公为主位，关羽只是陪祀众多武将中的一个而已，关公被封为武圣那是南宋以后的事情了。为何之前如此推崇姜太公，因其属于理论水平和赫赫功业双举。太公写的兵书《六韬》是我国最早的军事著作，比《孙子兵法》还早了几个世纪。古代军事教科书有很强的指导意义，打仗不读书是不行的。\n夏商周以来军事就是学在世家，春秋以来世袭贵族掌握的军事知识并世代相传不为外人道，以此维持对于军事的垄断地位。\n在秦以前，没受过正规军事教育没有赢得可能，那是稳定技术水平下的常规对抗，野路子注定打不过正规军。那个时代大家的兵种、军事制度、技术手段全都一样，在这样的军事对抗中，谁会的套路多，谁对技术的理解深入，谁就更有希望赢。世代为将的，几代人的经验给你用，当然神勇。就像刘邦率兵很难打过项羽，项羽败在自己的政治上。\n略不变，术常变\n兵书浩如烟海，为啥只有《孙子兵法》最流行？他多讲战略，少讲战术。战略多久都不过时，但战略需要战术来落地。有孙子兵法，鸦片战争还是打不过英军，燧发枪密集队型战术，这个战术人家玩了两百多年总结出来的专门打你的人海冲锋。\n历史上的战争长期碾压，无外乎两点：\n\n工具：技术/装备碾压 【核心要素|绝对优势，装备含 领先进攻装备+高质量单兵装备】\n战术：结合训练组织有素\n\n冠军侯鄙视兵书\n汉武帝刘彻要教导霍去病兵法时，霍去病所回的话影响**“顾方略何如耳，不至学古兵法”**，这句话的意思是要临机应变，不必拘泥，无须学习古代的兵法。\n\n挺狂妄的，为啥他还能成呢？\n\n中原以往的战车步兵方阵在和匈奴的战争中，追不上也跑不了，威力强大的战车在匈奴骑兵面前机动性全无，成了被射杀的活靶子。即使你家有两百年指挥战车作战的经验，这个时候你也用不上，因为对手变了。\n我们学他们行不行？也搞骑射结果发现根本射不过人家，匈奴人孩童时代就骑羊射鼠，大了就骑马射人，汉家将士后期在如何训练也比不上这样的对手。你再咋搞那些布阵，地形，计策你也赢不了。\n汉匈战术变革\n卫青，霍去病因为处在一个变革的关键时期，依靠出众的才华把中原王朝的冲锋战术和骑兵相结合，发明了骑兵冲锋战术，不在和敌人对射，而是用我们擅长的高度纪律性和组织性发起骑兵冲锋和匈奴人肉搏作战，用自己的长处打击敌人的短处。在肉博中汉军占尽优势，在武器上，汉代环手刀锋利异常可以长达100CM，装备的铁甲匈奴人的青铜短刀也难以一刺而破。从骑射到冲锋的改变，彻底改变了战争局面，用兵不拘古法。\n欧洲重骑兵又被蒙古打\n欧洲为啥重装骑兵多，他的地形没那么开阔，常有树林，沼泽，不利于骑射骑兵游走，重骑冲杀迅猛到前，有优势，才存在。\n为啥对付蒙古人不好使？蒙古人两副弓，还有先进的火器，先来火器干一波，再来硬弓射杀一波，临近了再用射速快的弩，工具&amp;战术上落后了，所以打不过。\n在合乎现实的情况下组合自有资源，好过每天惦记要发明新东西和出奇制胜，世界上没有出奇制胜，有的是用绝对优势击败对手。\n列传二杰的态度\n《史记-卫将军骠骑列传》写卫青之功，多陈述事实，“摹写唯恐不尽”， 而写霍去病之功则多用皇帝诏辞点出，这正是对诏辞所列骠骑三出，竟斩捕十一万余敌人之事的存疑之笔（诏辞以幕府报功表为据），真是“句中有筋，字中有眼”，褒贬之意于叙事之中。暗讽霍去病之功是武帝为了提拔他而夸大的。\n汉代皇帝好男宠，汉武也不例外，太史公还品冠军侯不体恤士兵（赏赐酒肉臭，自顾自踢球，士兵饥渴寒—也有人洗白年级轻轻，制造距离立军威），你品你细品。\n\n爱屋及乌，霍去病的儿子霍嬗5岁就领二千石的官（奉车都尉），武帝首次泰山封禅是陪着他上山的唯一一人（此时10岁或11岁），何等的待遇，皇太子都靠边站，唯二人携手与天交流（也有说冠军侯已逝，带他儿子展示一下对匈奴的威慑）。\n可惜唯一目睹泰山封禅的后浪霍嬗，也在泰山封禅后不久宣布疾病去世，看来超规格了无福消受。\n霍嬗的出生年份未见确切史籍，但走的时候无子嗣，肯定年纪不大，应该真的是10~11岁左右\n\n史记可以随意抹黑老板？\n武帝活着的时候，根本不知道《史记》的存在。司马迁写完史记后，这本书一直在他的家里，被私人收藏了几十年。直到后来，司马迁的女婿成为汉朝丞相后，这套书才被司马迁的外孙翻了出来得以传世。如果没有这个好女婿（杨敞，原在霍光麾下做官），可能后世永远不会知道。\n司马迁的父亲司马谈，在读书的时候就发现，从来没有一本书完整的记录了以往全部的历史，且基本是编年史，记录也简短。司马谈就有了一个想法，写一本写全本历史的书。遂借着自己太史令的身份四处搜集各种历史文献资料，不过这个梦想到他去世也没完成，毕竟这个工作量太大了。司马迁接班干，立志要完成父亲的梦想。此后十多年时间里，按照父亲搜集的资料正式开始写。在这期间，司马迁因为给李陵求情，触怒武帝遭受宫刑。但他还是完成了这部旷世巨著。\n具体成书日期不可考，只知道写完时武帝还在位。里面对武帝有不少不利的内容，例如对耗尽国力打匈奴持反对意见，且迷信鬼神，好大喜功。从司马迁的视角看，他只是出于一个史官的职责，秉笔直书。如果武帝知道这样内容的存在，能允许此书传世吗？司马迁自己也不敢赌，因为这是两代人一生的心血。所以他写完后并未有对外宣传，在临终前，把史记的书稿传给了自己的女儿。\n司马迁的女婿参与拥立了汉宣帝，到宣帝坐稳皇位以后，此时汉朝官方已经能接受对武帝的一些批评了。此时杨家地位也很高，所以拿出公开在世人面前。随着史记流传，汉朝官方认识到私人写史书的影响力，后来对于私人写史书持反对态度，东汉时期班彪开始续写史记，班固接力写的时候就被邻居举报了，给抓起来了。私修国史是有罪的，好在弟弟班超为了救哥哥，向汉明帝求情，汉明帝算是个明君，把班固写成的内容看一遍，发现写的确实不错，也没夹带私货，就赦免了他。\n不管是《史记》或是《汉书》，传下来都不容易。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"历史的教训","url":"/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD.html","content":"\n地理决定论\n\n地理好比孕育历史的子宫，哺育着历史，规范着历史\n\n在每个地方，北欧人都是冒险者，勇敢的战士和纪律严明的人。他们使性情多变无常，懒惰的地中海南部民族成了他们的臣民或奴隶。在欧洲，南方人创造文明，北方人就征服它，毁灭它，借鉴它，传播它：这是对历史的一个简要概括。\n从长远来看，传统或种族类型的差异性，是由于环境的影响造成的。当安逸的南方民族跑到北方后，活动和思维的节奏也会加快。\n生物学的教训\n人生来不自由不平等\n生物学给历史的教训就是：\n\n生命就是竞争，战争就是一个国家的觅食方式\n人生来就是不自由不平等的，30%的人的能力综合可能跟剩余70%的能力和一致\n\n大自然对我们梦想中的自由与平等的结合付之一笑，因为自由是平等对立面。只有经济才能处于平均水平以下的人，才会渴求平等，只有那些才智高超的人，才会渴望自由。最终的结果总是自由胜出，才智高超的人得偿所愿。\n乌托邦式的平等已经被生物学判了死刑，立场温和的哲学家所能指望的最佳状态，是法律和教育机会的大致平等。\n天地不仁\n自然极其喜爱数量，因为量变是质变的先决条件，与个体相比，大自然更喜欢群体，她对文明和野蛮几乎不加区分，不介意高出生率通常会导致在文化上变的不那么文明，而低出生率通常又与文化高的文明相伴，低出生率的国家周期性地收到更加孔武有力和生育力强的群体的惩罚。\n若人类繁衍过快而使食物变得短缺，大自然有三个办法使其恢复平衡：饥荒、瘟疫和战争。\n\n经济道德史\n从有历史记录以来，人的演化一直是社会性而不是生物性的：其进化程度不是经由物种遗传变异，而主要是因为经济政治智力和伦理道德的革新，通过模仿，习俗和教育的力量，个别或一代代传递下去。\n我们把经济史分为三个阶段：狩猎期，农业期和工业期。我们会发现，一个阶段的道德规则将会在下一个阶段发生改变。\n道德规范跟经济模式走\n狩猎期\n如狩猎期，大量的不安全感，男人高死亡率，促成男性好斗，残暴，贪婪和好色，这是当时那个时代的优势，放在今天是罪恶\n农业期\n进入农业期，勤奋变得比勇猛更加重要，讲究规则和节俭比武力更有价值，和平比战斗更加有利。孩子是经济资产，节育是不道德的。\n工业期\n工业革命改变了欧洲人和美国人的经济形态和上层道德结构，男女和子女离开故乡和家庭，放弃权威社群，以个人身份去工厂打工，所得也归个人所有，工厂的房子并非为人而建，而是为了机器，机器也越来越复杂，使得经济自立延后（养家糊口的能力–原来农业的年龄线更靠前）。\n子女不再是经济资产，城市让人对婚姻望而却步，女人被解放了，避孕药使得她们能够将性和孕分离开来。\n个人主义在工业社会日益增长，使得父母的权威失去了经济基础。\n叛逆的年轻人不再受村民的监督和限制，他可以在素不相识的城市人群中隐藏自己的罪孽，旧的农业道德规范开始走向灭亡。\n罪恶的烈度从未不同\n历史提醒我们，罪恶在每一个时代都蓬勃发展，我们这个时代的道德沦丧，与英国复辟时代相比，只有种类上的差别，没有程度上的不同。\n每个时代男女都嗜好赌博；每一个时代，男人都不诚实，政府都很腐化。十六世纪的小册子文献中，充斥着对食品和货物大量掺假的谴责和抱怨，淫乱更不消说，人们从不甘心遵守十诫。\n经济史是财富心脏的缓慢跳动\n美国人在1776年前是相对平等的，现在已经被成千上万种生理上，精神上，和经济上的差异所击垮，贫富差距是历史最大。历史对此有不同的应对方式，或者通过立法，用和平的手段重新分配财富，或是通过革命，用暴力手段强行分配。所有的经济史都是这个社会有机体缓慢的心脏跳动，财富的集中和强制再分配，便是它巨大的收缩和扩张运动。\n治钱者治一切\n劳心者治人，劳力者治于人，但治钱者治一切。银行家爬到经济金字塔的最顶端，观察农业，工业及贸易趋势，引导资金的流动，使钱发挥2~3倍的效用，他们控制贷款，利润和企业，进行风险最大收益又最大的活动。\n银行家都形成了家族，他们稳稳坐在政府的议事厅中，为战争和教皇出钱，偶尔还会点燃革命的火花。可能这是他们权力的一个秘密：他们研究价格波动，知道历史总会通货膨胀，钱是聪明人应当藏入地窖的最后一样东西。\n回头看制度\n君主制最自然–中等成绩\n历史对所有的形式，以及政府这种普遍存在的东西，都会给予赞美。君主制似乎是最自然的政府体制，因为它的权威适用于群体，就像父亲在家族中或首领在战士们中享有的权威一样。相对而言，民主制一直是其中的插曲。\n君主制取得了中等的成绩，这个制度因为继承而引发的战争带给人类的灾难和它的连续性和正统性带来的好处一样多。\n兼论下君主制时代贵族的堕落\n贵族鼓励，支持且控制艺术，但是他们很少能创造艺术，贵族们蔑视艺术家，把艺术家视为匠人，他们喜欢生活中的艺术，而不是艺术化的生活，从未想过屈尊受尽千辛万苦，而这通常是天才必须付出的代价。他们也很少进行文学创作，因为他们认为为出版而写作是出风头和推销自己的表现。\n这种现象所导致的结果是，现代的贵族中产生了无所用心而又浅薄的享乐主义。\n资本主义的创造性\n资本主义履行了创造性的历史职能：如他们用许诺分红和支付利息的方式，集合人们的储蓄变为生产资本；他们对工业和农业的机械化进行投资，并合理分配利润，结果一大批商品如潮水般从生产者手中涌入到消费者手中。\n自由企业制度下，竞争的激励及所有权的热情和兴趣，激发了人们的生产力和创造力。\n共产主义:战时经济\n共产主义在俄国而非英国先出现，定是超过马克思的预想的。俄国革命的成功，因为沙皇政府在战争中的战败蒙羞，经济已崩溃混乱，农民携带武器从前线回到家乡。新政府内受混乱的挑战，外受他国的攻击，人们的反应是任何一个国家受到围攻情况下的自然反应–在秩序和安全恢复之前，可以舍弃一切个人的自由。这里的共产主义，也是战时经济。只消一代人的和平，它便很可能被人的本性所侵蚀。\n黑格尔哲学的断章应用\n马克思是黑格尔的不忠实弟子，他将黑格尔辩证法的意思解释成资本主义和社会主义间的斗争，将会以社会主义的完全获胜而结束。但是，如果黑格尔的正题，反题，合题公式应用于历史，工业革命是正题，资本主义对抗社会主义是反题，那么下一个状态就应是资本主义和社会主义的合题。\n这种协调现象，西方世界已经明显在进行。对资本主义的恐惧，迫使社会主义不断扩大自由，而对社会主义的恐惧，迫使资本主义不断增加平等，一对双胞胎很快就会团聚。\n真正的革命\n人们间天然的不平等，就算发生了财富再分配，很快会发生新的占有和特权的不平等。唯一真正的革命，是对心灵的启蒙和对个性的提升；唯一真正的解放，是个人的解放；唯一真正的革命者，是哲学家和圣人。\n文明的进步\n我们曾把文明界定为“促进文化创造的社会秩序”。政治秩序是依靠习俗，道德和法律而得到保障。经济秩序则是依靠连续的生产和交换而得到保障。文明是错综复杂又很不稳定的人际关系网络，建立起来很辛苦，摧毁则很容易。\n文明不能遗赠，它必须经由每一代人重新学习，如果传播的过程被打断一个世纪以上，文明就会死亡，我们又会重新变成野蛮人。当代最好的成就，就是付出了空前的财力和物力，为所有的人提供了更高的教育。\n\n如果生命的延长表明了对环境有更大的控制力，那么死亡率的降低就宣告了人类的进步\n\n民主是政府形式中最难的一种\n按照民主一词的严格定义，它只存在于现代，因为成人（包括女性）投票权也只开始于20世纪。在所有政府形式中民主是最困难的一种，因为它需要最大限度的普及聪明才智。\n宿命悲观但努力值得鼓励\n教育是普及了，但是才智却因为头脑简单的人众多而永远受到阻滞。林肯说过：“你不可能永远欺骗所有人”，但是你可以愚弄足够多的人，以便治理一个大国。\n民主有缺陷，但还是比其它形式的政治好，害处较少而优点较多。虽然不能做到生而平等，但教育和机会的获得会让他们越来越接近平等。\n复古是逃避\n我们身处城市生活的纷乱的压力之下，有时很想逃避回到文明前的淳朴生活方式。但是，这也只是偶尔的想入非非，我们知道这是对现实工作产生的一种逃避反应，将原始人偶像化，就像年轻人的其他许多心情一样，也是青春期一种不能适应环境的发泄表现，是自觉的能力尚未成熟，尚未派上用场的表现。\n宗教的正向力量\n人生来不平等，宗教是希望的安慰者，摧毁了希望，阶级斗争就会愈演愈烈，天堂和乌托邦此消彼长，当宗教衰退时，共产主义就会兴起。\n地球上的统治者都是受神的指派，受神保护，出于感激，几乎每个国家都会与祭司分享它的领土和税收。\n\n中国的天子，好像倒是有多次清理宗教的活动，估计宗教势力太大，影响到了国家的税收和宗法控制\n\n只要有贫穷，就会有神灵\n如果再有高烈度战争让科学名誉扫地，那么教会就会变成劫后余生的人们唯一的希望和指引。只要有贫穷，就会有神灵。\n天主教又压新教一头\n天主教禁止堕胎而导致的高生育率，使它的信徒逐步收回了因宗教改革失去的地盘，天主教失去了知识阶层的依附，且由于和世俗教育与文学的接触，信徒也日渐不守教规，但它得到了两种人的皈依：\n\n\n一种人对理性的不确定而感到苦恼\n\n\n另一种是希望借助教会之力，来压制内部的混乱，以及抵制共产主义的浪潮。\n\n\n它勾起了人们的幻想，希望和情感，安慰穷人的生活照亮了他们的希望。\n增补章节：农业革命的骗局\n常识认为人类历史上的几次革命，农业革命，工业革命，信息革命对人类发展和进步都做出了极大贡献。但《人类简史》的作者不这么看，从人性关怀的角度他指出农业革命是人类历史上最大的骗局。\n人类曾有250w年靠采集和狩猎为主，大约公元前9500到前8500年，人类开始向农业耕种转变。本以为有了农业生产，人类可以放弃狩猎采集的艰苦，危险，简陋，可以安定下来享受愉快和饱足的生活。其实这只是一个幻想。\n\n农业革命直接成效是人类的食物总量增加，但同时也带来了人口的急剧增长。并产生了一批可以养尊处优，不劳而获的阶层。\n为了养活更多的人，农民必须更辛苦的劳作，过上比采集时代更辛苦的生活。\n\n\n农业对寿命/健康的影响也可以参阅中年的意义。\n\n采集时代食物品种非常多，遇到荒年也不容易饿死，农业时代食物单一，只要遇到灾害，被饿死的贫民很多。农业社会也并未给人类带来人身安全，采集年代碰到冲突撤退搬家还能生存；农民遇到强敌，撤退放弃自己的土地，几乎注定会被饿死，势必更多与外来者拼个你死我活。\n以繁衍后代为导向的生活让农民的生活质量迅速下降，人类非但没越过越好，反而越来越糟。\n普遍进步被不均衡收割和欲望再次填平\n人类从古至今，种种想要自己生活变得轻松幸福的努力，总是未达到那么美好的结果，却给自己带来新的麻烦。\n今天依然如此，年轻人投身大企业发誓努力工作赚钱，好在35岁就可以不工作，去从事自己真正有兴趣的事业，而到了35岁，才发现自己背巨额贷款，要付子女学费，要供房车，该怎么办，放下一切吗？只能继续埋头工作，把自己累个半死。\n我们发明了那么多本该让生活轻松省时的发明，如洗衣机，吸尘器，手机，计算机，到头来，我们的生活并没有变得轻松。\n物种演化上的成功，并不代表个体的幸福。每当人类整体能力大幅增加，看来大获成功的时候，个人的苦痛也总是随之增加。以此类推，工业革命，信息革命乃至智能革命好像都是如此，值得人类反思，我们究竟要什么，什么才是人性。\n增补章节：人性本私\n利益越大的地方，人性越自私。自私大到一定程度，人性就变成了恶。古代帝王相争，连善的影子都看不到。你之所以痛苦，是因为你把身边的人都想成了好人，自然期望值就拉高了。\n人与人之间，没有背叛与忠诚，一切关系因利益的产生而开始，因利益的消散而结束。很少有纯粹的好人和坏人。你伤害了对方的利益，你在对方的眼中就是坏人。社会人与社会人相处的本质就是利益交换，你的价值就是你的一切。\n\n当你贫穷时，你遇到的都是嘲笑，算计，占你便宜的人；你有钱了，你遇到的都是友好善良的好人，重点是他们都是同一群人。社会就像猴子爬树，从上往下看，都是笑脸，从下往上看，都是屁股。当你实力足够强大时，才会感受到社会的美好和温柔。\n\n人性的本质是什么，既不是本善，也不是本恶，本质是本私的。随着你利益大小的变化而发生变化，无利益冲突时，人性是本善的，产生利益，人性开始变得自私，利益足够大，人性是恶的。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史","人性"]},{"title":"历史的棋局","url":"/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html","content":"\n学历史不是记时间，那叫记事本存储器，得有纵向跨时空的穿插和逻辑。\n先秦的棋谱\n人文家国，历久弥新。从周代的历史缩影都能窥见后代棋局的棋谱大意。\n周朝时间790年最长，占文明史$1 \\over 6$长，奠定了华夏的重要根基。相当于南宋(成吉思汗）到清四个朝代（784年）到今天的距离。\n军政层面\n从东周迁到洛阳开始，周王朝的发迹之地事实上转移到了秦国名下。前期春秋冶铁科技水平不高，各位权贵“亲戚”封地间有很多的缓冲地带，随着改造自然能力增强，大家的胃口和冲突都变大了。韩赵魏三家分晋后，历史迈入战国时代，诸侯纷争，攻伐掠夺，礼乐崩塌，社会通行的法则就是在武力基础上建立的社会语法：剑戟说话。\n经济层面\n魏国占的土地恰是尧舜禹建立都城的河东之地（都是围绕山西运城盐池而建都），拥有解池的盬($g\\check{u}$)盐而成为文明的发祥之地，黄帝蚩尤大战，也是为了争夺这个盐池。管子的治国理念，就是要实行君权对国家经济的垄断性经营，对国家的一切社会财富实行有组织，有计划的控制，只有实行了”利出一孔“，国家才会”无敌“。\n整个战国时期，各国王权已无余力调和国家和民生的羹汤，发展到最后，权贵阶层和财富阶层混为一体。在私营商业势力大为膨胀的背景下，由赵而秦，由商入朝的吕不韦，反映的正是那个时代商人们发达升迁的路线，为商官群像的一个历史缩影。可只有秦国真正实现了盐铁的专营。解池盐卤之地+巴蜀的盐尽收秦国之手，辅以盐铁专营，秦国的强大已无可阻挡。\n新大一统通常短命，后跟一个长命的王朝。简单解读是终结乱世，容易膨胀，听不进劝。秦如此，晋如此，隋亦如此。\n\n削藩也是手艺活\n汉高帝削藩\n刘邦最终击败项羽称帝前，所封的诸侯都是盟友而非属下。而项羽小气，不愿分封绥靖各方，被迫面对无休止的游击战。\n刘邦削藩的成功，关键是在获得压倒性优势之前完全隐藏自己的意图，隐藏到韩信，英布这种顶尖人物都心存侥幸。击败项羽后，马上开始了自己的削藩行动。\n\n\n关键第一步是把整个齐地纳入自己的管控中。借口让韩信衣锦还乡，把韩信从齐地改封到项羽的西楚故地，不露痕迹地取得齐地控制权，分封给自己的儿子。从此之后，叛乱者都要面对齐地和关中两个地方的强力夹击，中央政府获得了显著的地缘优势。\n\n\n第二步是控制韩信统治下的西楚国故地。韩信政治能力实在不敢恭维，不具一个有能力问鼎天下的气度，甚至作为一个诸侯王也不及格。先是打擦边球（可能感觉到刘邦对其不放心），私自收留项羽的高级将领，结果刘邦一较真却怂了。这种主动露怯，让刘邦占据了极大的主动。\n\n\n最后，刘邦用陈平之计诱捕韩信，把他的楚王废掉，将楚国领土封给了自己的两个亲戚。\n\n\n等刘邦把齐，楚，燕三个国家的辖区封给自己人后，刘邦对其它异性藩王的优势已经是决定性的了，剩下所有的异性诸侯加在一起，也不是刘邦的对手。用最小的代价逐渐用自己家族成员取代原来的异性王。\n后世典型的反面案例\n清康熙\n康熙高喊“削亦反，不削亦反”的口号（典型的冲动型人格，朝鲜使臣记载其青壮年时期性燥急多暴怒），逼反了本来态度游离的耿，尚二藩，创下一个历史记录：被以云南为基地的叛乱势力席卷了半个中国。虽然吴三桂的败局是注定的（他年龄大劣势，名声差，叛军三心二意）如果玄烨有刘邦的政治智慧，吴三桂掀不起那么快的风浪。不过他很快察觉到自己的失策，在三藩叛乱后手忙脚乱地宣称“暂缓撤耿，尚二藩”，后期成功分化了三位藩王。\n明建文\n比起建文帝的操作，他的小失误不算个事。在朱元璋都做好制度性安排，藩王主动叛乱成功可能性为0的情况下，朱允炆偏偏觉得自己比爷爷和刘邦更聪明，往死里逼毫无威胁的藩王们，成了两千年间唯一被藩王造反推翻的大一统王朝君主。\n靖难之役背后的深层矛盾\n建文，就是朱允炆建立文治的坚定决心，但他的新政，反而为政权崩塌埋下伏笔。区别于洪武时期的严猛治国，建文强调自己的宽和，对祖制进行了不同程度的改动，最明显的是从重武轻文到尊佑右文教的转型。如《大明律》明确规定文官不能封公侯，建文登基后，为进一步提高文官地位，特意将六部尚书升为正一品，任用文官作为决策核心。\n这种调整使那些认同祖制的人，特别是一些藩王及武臣难以接受。重文轻武的政治倾向下，必然招致上下军官群体的不满，其军队频频失利或许与此有关。\n在朱标死后到立朱允炆为皇太孙的半年时间内，可以想象朱棣为储君之位下过不小的力气，拉拢了一批王侯武将。虽然最后争位失败，但拉拢的人却为靖难之役胜利奠定了基础。本身开国第一功臣徐达的长女为燕王妃的姻缘安排，就增添了朱棣在武将集团中的声望，再加上他战功最为显赫，与众多武将结下深厚情谊，手下聚集一批能征善战的将领。通州，遵化，密云的指挥使率部投降也是力证。朝中武将也多有倾心，如大舅子徐达之子徐增寿时任左都督，多次通报北境京师虚数。反观建文集团主要力量是苏浙赣皖地区的文官，与朝中武将观念相对不合。\n朱棣即位次日便下令奚复旧制，洪武时期，武将尚未被文官压倒，但在建文时代，严重以来文官集团激进推行新政，抬高文官地位，必然引起武官群体不满，在争夺皇权的表面背后，是明前期政治演进过程中矛盾冲突的产物，是”尚武“到”尚文“两种治国理念的交锋。\n两汉时光\n西汉初年刘邦鉴于秦朝土崩瓦解的教训，使用郡国制是符合潮流的，但文景之治之后，刘家血缘关系疏远尾大不掉，武帝削藩的必要条件随之成熟。但西汉末年后，武帝矫枉过正的策略又显出了负面效应，豪族缺少刘姓制约，开始雨后春笋生长，导致王莽篡汉发生，王莽激进不成熟的改革导致豪族的翻脸进而支持刘秀。东汉开始，刘秀只是借豪族的手，减少了人口压力，缓解了资源分配的压力，但其没有武帝和刘邦的觉悟或不敢，没有从源头上清洗豪族，这直接导致刘氏无法全面掌握主动权，演变成外戚专权豪族平衡天下的局面，三国志上演也成了必然。\n武帝为何没像秦朝一样崩溃\n大家常说武帝继承殷实家底，可景帝平定七国之乱时，还要向商贾借钱。伴随几十年的休养生息，无为而治的另外一面就是不抑制土地兼并。到武帝时期，地方上土地兼并和豪强林立已非常严重了，再加上北方匈奴的胃口一天天变大（强敌环伺），总结来说是个危局。所以毛的评价：文景守成庸主，幸承乱后人口稀少，固有假象。刘彻乃真雄主，改制度获罪天下，晚年省己，犹不失明。\n对内，刘老板为了筹措天价的军费，不论是基层百姓，贩夫走卒，还是商贾豪强，皇亲贵族，都如同韭菜般被刘彻挥舞镰刀收割了一茬又一茬，成为巅峰对决的养料。盐铁专营先是剥夺了全体大富绅，豪强们的赚取暴利的生计，然后从全民手里收间接税。再通过算缗（m$\\acute{i}$n）告缗没收绝大多数有产人的田宅现金和奴隶，掌握铸币权无差别收割天下所有人。对外消灭对汉民族生存构成威胁的敌对势力，匈奴被打的漠南五王庭，前后斩首俘虏 30w，壮年人口断层，羌人被驱逐，南越被灭国，朝鲜被灭国，还有一众西域小国被灭。领土直接扩大一倍，获得大量可开垦的土地，尖锐的人地矛盾被极大缓解。\n虽然老百姓过得不好（为国家战争做准备，全阶层不仅老百姓都为生存慌不择路焦头烂额），但阶层流动性几乎是西汉年间最强的，在那个年代做到了唯才是举。之后到宋代大规模科举之前，都是世家门阀掌权的时代。内部那些听调不听宣的勋贵，大商人，地方豪强也被彻底碾碎，各地曾经的封国也已名存实亡。这个曾经磕磕绊绊的国家也被整成了一个整体。每个人都被武帝的厚赏麻痹神经，也都为自己的生态位焦虑的不能自拔。\n随着汉匈战争的结束，民力疲敝，但汉朝外部威胁被彻底剪灭，让汉成为了一个民族的名字，给了一个名族前所未有的尊严。最后下罪己诏将罪责揽于一身，休养民生。在这一基础上出现的昭宣中兴也就顺理成章了。给到我们的启示是：任何伟大事业的成就，都需要在理想主义和现实主义，集体荣耀和个体命运间找到那个鲜血淋漓的平衡点。\n西汉吊打东汉\n西汉周期性清洗顶层贵族，地方豪强，敢于对各种顶层动刀子，不断腾空无用只能食利的顶层位置，然后用军功激发中层士人的活力，所以大汉从生强到死，不断扩张，三国分裂了还能吊打周边的唯一一个铁血朝代。\n\n陵邑制淘汰清理豪强，白鹿酌金清理贵族，军功制筛选底层。\n东汉不敢明目张胆搞领导淘汰制了，所以没西汉能打，但军功制仍在，连三国都巨能打。\n\n三国时代文化形态斗争\n东汉的权柄拉扯战\n王莽和一群知识分子搞了一次开天辟地的政治实验，依照《周礼》来改造衰亡中的帝国，帝国不出意外地被这帮胆大心急，眼高手低的理论派搞垮了。\n重整山河的光武帝刘秀吃一堑长一智，不敢再相信书生，依靠南阳，颍川，河北豪强势力拥戴上位。为了羁縻笼络这些豪强，就和他们结成姻亲，刘秀不敢触动已根深蒂固的豪强势力，只好让他们以血统参股的方式，共享帝国的最高权力。\n但刘秀的妥协，从一开始就给东汉帝国埋了雷，皇位两传之后，姻亲舅爷便反客为主，靠挟持外甥而成为帝国的实际主人。外甥皇帝当然也不服气，又依靠身边的宦官发动反击，从舅爷手中夺回权力。\n公公们的下层寒门盟友 [商人和庶族地主]，奸商老财的子弟，走读书出路参与国家政治，仍然是不容易的，因为要是读书的料，早投到书生主流阵营中去。所以，公公索性忽悠皇帝为自己的盟友打开另一扇方便之门—卖官鬻爵。让那些有经济实力和社会影响力却不具备做官资格的人，通过这种特殊方式参与到国家政治中来。这个市场在洛阳宫苑的西园，后世称为“西园卖官”。\n东汉中后期的历史，就是一场外戚和宦官轮番把持帝国权柄的乱战。乱战中，书生们只能跑跑龙套。他们中的佼佼者，朋比牵引，逐渐上升为学阀世家，世代相继把持着对经书文义的阐释权。这就和中世纪欧洲僧侣扮演的角色差不多了。大家玩的是同一套把戏，通过加强意识形态工作，让被统治者变得更加驯服，从而降低统治成本。\n经学和文学从学阀统治下分离\n在外戚当权的时代里，舅爷总会装出一副礼贤下士的样子，邀请有社会影响力的学阀出来做官。书生虽会做出各种姿态，到底扛不住千钟粟和颜如玉的真香定理。“罢了，为了天下苍生，老夫就入世走一遭吧”，或者“经费不够学生们吃了，老夫还是去找大将军申领点皇粮吧”。正统的书生和公公，显然不可能做好朋友。\n公公们和下层寒门盟友同盟成为既有秩序的破坏者，既要从舅爷手里抢皇帝，又要从学阀手里抢编制[或者叫经费]，还要跟世家大族争做土豪。在意识形态领域，公公们虽出身寒微，但脑子并不傻，成立一个“鸿都门学”的大学堂，与正统派大本营三万太学生抗衡。和太学里那些捣鼓经学，钻研政治和党争的正统派不同，鸿都门学学术专业要平和得多，他们研究诗歌，辞赋，绘画书法这些修身养性的东西。\n从这时起，经学和文学就算分了家。穿越到东汉中后期的洛阳城，千万别随便跟人谈论诗歌，当然你碰到曹操除外。\n黄巾之乱\n儒生知道“子不语怪力乱神”，但公公们不同，他们不但相信，残缺的身体往往还驱使他们更迫切地寻找灵魂寄托。黄巾之乱爆发时，汉灵帝发现他宠信的公公中，居然有两个太平道的信徒，正准备为信仰去出卖他和他的帝国。\n皇帝愤怒了，但手里没其它力量可用，只得走回用外戚的老路，请自己的大舅子何进来担任大将军，负责全国的剿匪行动。靠平息&quot;黄巾之乱&quot;重新回到政治舞台的舅爷和书生联盟，自然地要求帝国政治重新洗牌。以袁绍为首的&quot;正统派&quot;坚决要求根除宦官势力，双方冲突激化，非你死我活不能了结。\n灵帝去世，双方立刻发生火并。先是宦官诱杀大将军何进，随后何进手下的袁绍等人又尽杀宦官，双方两败俱伤。皇权的两大支柱一块完蛋，帝国顷刻崩溃，乱世烽烟。\n曹魏爱写诗，蜀汉多论文\n《诗经》中就有四言诗，正统派还能容忍，至于五言诗，在他们看来，不啻于离经叛道，以《青青河畔草》为代表的汉末无言《古诗十九首》，几乎可以肯定是出自“鸿都门学”文人群体之手。\n\n青青河畔草的后文“昔为倡家女，今为荡子妇。荡子行不归，空床难独守”之语\n\n”鸿都门学“开创了五言诗与文学艺术化的先河，这个文人群体有过短暂的辉煌，但随即湮灭在汉末兵火中，灵魂与肉体，竹简与诗歌，都在”十常侍之乱“和董卓毁洛阳的劫难中灰飞烟灭。\n建安七子领导的五言诗崛起，从此文学尤其是诗歌，登堂入室成为艺术。曹操还写了不少颇有影响力的四言诗，如《步出夏门行》，曹丕，曹植就以五言诗为主了。曹家本是公公之后，又处在挑战正统皇权的地位，自然也不惮于引领一群邺下文人群体，再多搞出个文学革命来了。\n反观”正统派“人设的蜀汉文人群体，他们就绝不写诗，更不会写五言诗，他们只写《出师表》、《陈情表》、《仇国论》这样铿锵有力的议论文。\n曹魏写诗，蜀汉议论，原来如此。\n曹魏的运气\n董卓迁都长安后，讨董联盟的诸侯们开始火并，北方的幽州名将公孙瓒开始了他的扩张之路。他在多年的对抗鲜卑，乌桓的战事中积累了大量经验，有包括白马义从的精锐骑兵队，实力在河北首屈一指。袁绍在冀州刺史让位给他（袁绍原为渤海太守）后，与公孙瓒互有攻伐胜负，甚至公孙瓒还略占上风，为何袁绍后来居上呢？\n公孙瓒始终有一个名不正言不顺的问题，他不是幽州的行政长官，受幽州牧刘虞的节制，自然非常不对付。而后公孙瓒杀害德高望重的刘虞，此番作为致使士族都不能同他合作，虽表面控制幽州，但暗流涌动。刘虞的子嗣 刘和 回到幽州，搅动时局。在鲍丘之战中，公孙瓒的势力被悍将麹($q\\bar{u}$)义给予歼灭性打击，一蹶不振，这距离公孙瓒俘杀刘虞，势力达到巅峰不过两年时间。\n对于志在控制河北的袁绍来说，鲍丘之战后他野心的最大阻碍变成了实力相当的刘和，及悍将麹义。此二人均被袁绍除掉，历史上虽没记载刘和的死因，可能是动用了暗杀或毒杀的手段，假装自然死亡。总之是理应成为幽州牧的刘和从史书中彻底消失了。\n官渡之战前，阎柔和鲜于辅不约而同放弃之前联合对抗公孙瓒的盟友袁绍，选择投靠曹操，其原因应可能就是刘和之死。对曹操来说，刘虞系力量的加盟，使得袁绍不但无法利用幽州资源对抗他，还要腾出资源去防备。\n可袁绍又有什么选择呢，如果不对刘和，麹义下黑手，他连初步整合黄河以北都做不到，只能说曹操的运气实在太好了。\n南北朝与隋唐\n隋前乱世\n581年，隋建立，标志着”魏晋南北朝“近400年的乱世行将结束，8年后，隋灭掉南方的陈朝，重新实现中国大一统。北周，隋，唐三个朝代的权力更替，实际上是在关陇集团内部进行的，更具体一点，是在同一个婚姻圈子，一堆亲戚间进行的。\n杨坚建立的隋朝，实际继承的是宇文泰家族控制的西魏–北周政权，完成的也是宇文泰家族未竟的统一大业。534年，北魏分裂为东西魏，这一段中国的演进如此：\nflowchart LR\nsubgraph 北朝一统脉络\nC[[北魏 : 拓跋/元]]-->J{孝武帝与高欢决裂自洛阳西逃}\nsubgraph 关陇集团\nF[[西魏]]-->G[[北周 : 宇文]]-->H[[隋 : 杨]]-->I[[唐 : 李]]\nend\nJ--孝武帝西逃长安几个月后被毒杀，另立魏文帝-->F\nend\nsubgraph 好牌打稀烂的一支\nJ--高欢另立孝静帝-->D(东魏)\nD-->E(北齐 : 高)\nend\nsubgraph 南朝\nA(南梁 : 萧)--侯景之乱-->B(南陈 : 陈)\nend\nE-->G\nB-->H\n当时东魏占据中原最富庶之地，河北一带是粮食和丝绢的高质产地，而西魏的地盘除了关中平原，大部分是贫瘠的黄土高原和沙漠地带。东魏人口逾2千万，西魏人口不及千万，东魏高欢家族掌控的军队超过20万，西魏宇文泰军队不及十分之一。最终的输赢，却是西魏实现了对东魏和南梁的逆袭。\n北魏末年六镇起义，在长达10年的乱局中，杀出了两大权臣家族，一是高欢家族，一是宇文泰家族。高欢崛起更早，当高欢拥立北魏孝武帝元修登位，遥掌朝权时，宇文泰还是关中地区实际控制者贺拔岳手下一员将领。\n北齐高家–鲜卑化的汉族政权\n起高楼\n高欢发迹比宇文泰早，实力也更强，他出生时，家族已在怀朔镇生活三代，成为鲜卑化汉人，他还有个鲜卑名，叫”贺六浑“。他虽为六镇中最底层的人，但相貌帅气，相传他在城门站岗时被鲜卑豪族女儿娄氏看上了，依靠妻子彩礼买了匹战马，终于当上队主，实现阶层首次上升。而后，”轻财重土“的高欢结交了许多同阶层朋友，而后投靠掌握北魏朝政的「尔朱兆」，很得尔朱兆赏识，六镇兵很快集结到高欢麾下。且其注重联合河北豪族武装，创业程中，通过一路的姻亲，朋友，乡里，联盟的力量积攒准备，与无能力的尔朱兆决裂。两场决战后，高欢胜出，掌权7年的尔朱兆兵败自杀。高欢在自己38岁时入洛阳另立新帝，自己为大丞相，太师，居晋阳，派心腹在邺城管理朝政。\n高欢视孝武帝元修为傀儡，而元修却视自己为君王，借口南伐梁朝，调兵遣将，高欢听到风声，进军洛阳。孝武帝仓促投奔关中，成为宇文泰自立对抗高欢的一张底牌。\n宴宾客\n高欢治下东魏一直有胡汉矛盾和腐败问题两个大雷。东魏稳定控制河北地区后，高欢转而开始抑制汉族豪强。此与宇文泰在关中吸收本地豪族，打造关陇军工集团，缔建胡汉共同体的做法，形成强烈对比，两位枭雄对待鲜卑化和汉化的根本态度，决定了谁最终被历史选中。\n高欢不信任汉人，将他封闭的民族理念传给了下一代，使得北齐在持续不断的内斗中走向了终点。在腐败问题上，高欢认为勋贵贪腐都是他们冒着生命危险打天下后应得的回报，他只要求勋贵都他的家族保持忠诚，其它一概不管。且还有奇葩理由，现三国分立，他若厉行反腐，会逼得功臣宿将投奔关中宇文泰或南方萧衍。从他为贪腐辩护的这番理论来看，虽称得上权谋大师，在乱世中白手起家实现霸业，但政治视野显得非常有限，治理国家能力欠缺。高欢做一个草莽大哥没有问题，能让底下弟兄过上为所欲为的生活，但做一个国家领导人则有待训练。\n在高欢儿子正密谋禅代事宜时，历史开了一个大玩笑，一个厨子将政治天赋极高的高澄刺杀了，前期装笨的弟弟高洋登上历史舞台。父子两代三人经17年努力，取代元氏家族，建立北齐王朝。\n楼塌了\n高洋同样很有政治才干，但在将北齐带到一个高度后，开始彻底放飞自我，将家族和人性中的恶释放出来了：纵欲，乱伦，酗酒，滥杀，内斗，连同高欢遗留的胡汉矛盾和贪腐，所有问题一起爆发，使得北齐成为历史上臭名昭著的禽兽王朝。\n高欢家族精神气质表现：尚武好侠，嗜酒好色，智商高，情商欠缺。子孙都具有卓越军事才能，高洋就经常在战场上冲锋陷阵，身先士卒，表现十分勇猛，也遗传了爱喝酒的基因。但高欢自制力很好，大事后饮酒必不过三杯，而高洋则不然，统治晚期只喝酒不吃饭，34岁的时候就饮酒过度暴毙。且酒后嗜杀乱性。乱性也是高欢家族一种病态，高欢就收集了一众人妻，在这方面儿子们比其父有过之无不及。高澄先后与父亲两个妃子私通，还强奸大将高慎妻子，造成其叛逃西魏，引发邙山大战。还调戏奸污二弟高洋妻子。故而高洋称帝后，公然强奸哥哥妻子元氏。另一个弟弟称帝后也逼奸二嫂（高洋妻子）。乱伦之事已然乱套，不仅如此，还聚众淫乱。史学家通常认为，高氏家族自认鲜卑人，并对汉化改革十分排斥，视娶弟媳，纳寡嫂等鲜卑民族习俗为正常之事。\n高洋建立北齐后，既需要宗室成员与怀朔勋贵维持军政统治，又担心这些人权势膨胀对皇权构成威胁。后期一项主要工作便是对宗室诸王进行打压，先后以各种理由逼死自己的族叔，两个弟弟。而他暴毙后，儿子的皇位第二年便被两个叔叔政变废掉，借口是清君侧的弘农杨氏汉族辅政大臣，恐威胁鲜卑人利益。接班的高湛也跟其兄高洋一样，酒色过度而死。而后就是没完没了宗室内斗。\n北周宇文家–汉化的鲜卑政权\n宇文泰在贺拔岳突然遇害情况下成功接收其军团，源于武川豪酉家族的出身，个人的政治军事才能及在关陇地区4年积累的口碑。此时宇文泰远未能与高欢抗衡，他需要与孝武帝联手，取得政治合法性。孝武帝不甘心接受被权臣操控的命运，无时无刻不在希望借助不愿降服于高欢的军事势力。在匡辅魏室的旗帜下，宇文泰称霸关陇。在孝武帝与高欢决裂后，慌忙带领自己的人马西逃，投奔宇文泰。通过迎奉孝武帝迁都长安，把高欢置于乱臣贼子的舆论高压下，宇文泰的这招与以往曹操狭天子以令诸侯有异曲同工之妙。\n收留逃亡皇帝北魏二分\n孝武帝本质上是一个权力欲望很强的年轻人，宇文泰决定先下手，秘密鸩($zh\\grave{e}n$)杀了年仅26岁的孝武帝，改立好控制的元宝炬为帝。此前，高欢以孝武帝弃国逃跑为由，改立元善见为帝，并迁都邺城，北魏正式分裂为东西魏。\n从跟随贺拔岳进入关中，到成为西魏实际掌权者，仅用了不到5年时间。\n关陇改革\n历史上，任何改革都指向富国强兵，但历史上改革成少败多，不少改着改着就把一个国家改没了。宇文泰也开始操刀改革，因为不改革西魏肯定亡。\n离宇文泰最近的一场改革，是北魏孝文帝主导的改革，此场改革在北魏百年左右，鲜卑贵族利益板结时进行，以汉化为核心。改革者是有魄力的，但改完后北魏也乱了，不到30年就分裂成了东西魏。\n宇文泰的这场改革涉及广泛，政治经济军事文化无所不包，其建立起来的各项制度，成为北周，隋朝，唐朝的制度滥觞，影响深远。史学界认为隋唐帝国是”北朝化“的中国，很大程度上指的是西魏制度的影响力。\n府兵制\n尤其在军事制度上，宇文泰建立的府兵制以及由此形成的关中本位政策，深刻影响了此后300多年的中国历史。\n鲜卑化与汉化，是北魏一直以来最为棘手的一对矛盾，宇文泰的高明之处是从中找到了一条高明的道路，实现了胡汉政策的有效结合。而府兵制则是其胡汉政策结合的最重要内容。\n东西魏分立时，均以北魏六镇军事力量为基础立国，只是宇文泰仅有武川镇一镇的军力。这也是高欢动辄强势兵力碾压宇文泰的原因。要改变军力不足的局面，必须扩大兵力来源，持续吸收关陇地区豪强的私有兵力及各方势力。地方大族及其乡兵以汉族为主，也解决了地方豪族拥兵自重，尾大不掉的问题。由于当时盛行军阀割据，而鲜卑的军队部落属性很强，基本只认各自的首领，不认中央。宇文泰还急需解决军权的中央集权化问题。\n宇文泰采取了很高明的一招，设置八柱国，十二大将军的组织结构。八柱国除宇文泰和元魏宗室代表元欣之外，其余六人各督二大将军，分掌禁旅，合计十二大将军。每个大将军各领开府二人，每一开府各领一军，合计二十四军。\n柱国与大将军势力相互交错，牵制，有利于宇文泰进行最终的驾驭。特别是各个柱国，依次被任命为朝廷公卿，身份由边镇将领变成开国元勋，朝廷重臣，逐渐脱离军旅生涯，变相削弱了他们的军事实力，实现了军权的初步集权化。\n关中本位\n宇文泰将西迁的汉族将领籍贯，一律改为关陇郡望，给予大批出身寒微的汉将附会士族高门的机会，并由此构建”关中本位“观念，强化本地华戎族群的凝聚力和认同感，从而与山东（崤山以东），江左争中原正统。宇文泰家族很看重立足关中的周朝历史资源，后来自立的政权干脆以”周“为国号，这些都是胡汉融合”关中化“的体现。\n改革收效\n府兵制的创建和完备，在宇文泰手上前后历时12年才完成。最终西魏军队人数翻了一番，府兵达到5万人，中央对军权实现了强有力的控制，结束了地方割据，私立林立的状态。且府兵制是兵民分离的职业兵，相比东魏北齐兵民合一的义务兵，整体素质和战斗力更强。\n运气爆棚\n面对东魏三路进攻，西魏一些将领建议分兵把守诸道，但若按此部署，则使本来就处于弱势的西魏兵力更为分散，极可能被各个击破。宇文泰关键时刻，做了一个赌徒式的判断，赌高欢造浮桥渡河只是虚张声势，实则掩护窦泰部从潼关趁虚而入。那就先集中兵力消灭窦泰一路。宇文泰放出烟雾弹，扬言欲保陇右，退还长安，暗地率6千骑兵东出，日夜兼程，很快抵达潼关附近，窦泰听闻宇文泰军突至，仓促应战。宇文泰利用有利地形，四面埋伏，诱窦泰部陷入泥淖($n\\grave{a}o$) ，千弩齐发，窦泰军死伤大半，被俘万余人。宇文泰在与高欢的心理博弈中，押中了后者兵分三路的真实目的，出奇兵，以少胜多击败窦泰，使得东魏军队全面撤退。潼关之战后，宇文泰以攻为守，数次出兵侵蚀东魏领土，而后的数次双方交战，东魏都没占到便宜，最后在围攻玉璧城（山西稷山西南）的战斗中，10w人久攻50天不克，战死及病故者约7w人，高欢忧愤成疾，回到晋阳不久，就病死了，时年52岁。\n高欢死后，他的儿子代东魏自立北齐政权，被宇文泰家族的北周政权攻灭。\n除开90%的努力，东魏猛将侯景的搅局就是宇文泰那10%的运气。东魏没高欢，侯景早就称王称霸了，高欢在世时，侯景拥兵10w，专制河南，高欢病逝仅几日，侯景就造反了。但侯景的地盘属四战之地，凭这个自立，独自对抗三国哪一方，都是很难的事。在举起反旗的那一刻，侯景就张罗找靠山了。他首先想到的是西魏，起初宇文泰觉得划算，遂派兵去支援侯景。宇文泰部将站出来劝谏，说侯景这个人反复无常，高欢一死便叛离，怎么会忠于西魏呢，他只是不愿作被困在池中的蛟龙，想利用我们的军事支援罢了。宇文泰一听，甚觉有理，才避免了一场惹火上身的大祸。\n最终这枚苦果被梁武帝吞食了，梁武帝被活活饿死，而梁朝本有统一天下的可能，经侯景之乱后变成了无力复兴，任人宰割的弱国。北齐和西魏都借机吃成了一个大胖子。梁朝崩溃后，梁武帝的子侄们陷入无尽的内斗，让宇文泰看到了机会。公元554年，荆襄成了西魏的地盘，连荆襄以南的湘州（湖南）也一度被西魏拿下，发展为三国中的头号强国，综合实力在北齐之上，不要说后来的陈朝了。这段暴发史，从侯景之乱算起，不过六七年时间。若不是梁武帝引入侯景，自我毁灭，宇文泰连关中都出不了，这就叫机运，在宇文泰生命中的最后几年，被他牢牢地抓住了。公元556年，宇文泰病逝，年仅50岁。557年，宇文泰家族取代东魏自立，建立北周。\n北周被大隋摘了果子\n20年后577年，宇文泰之子，北周武帝宇文邕($y\\bar{o}ng$)，攻灭北齐，统一北方。578年，正当其打算平突厥定江南，实现统一全国的时候，却在出征前病逝。3年后，杨坚篡北周自立，拉开华夏第二帝国序幕，距离宇文泰之死，仅仅过去25年，七八年后，中国一统。\n离隋最近一次统一历程，是西晋，也是借前朝奠定的统一基础，完成统一大业。有所不同的是，西魏立国时是最弱小的一方，但也埋下了不安的种子，就是统治者一直有心机的要削弱河东地区的人力，河东豪族与关中地区一直有不安分的种子，隋末大工程大战争，安史之乱都有此背景。\n侯景之乱的搅局运气\n萧衍老年痴呆？\n梁武帝是老年痴呆还是聪明过头？他对皇族成员和世族高门的确宽厚到不可思议的程度，是对宋齐两朝皇族激烈内斗的矫枉过正，但对民众犯罪惩罚极严，且实行连坐，一人逃亡，全家都要被罚作苦工。\n他是不是有圣母心，收留侯景。非也，侯景冒充东魏政权写信试探梁武帝，提出用侯景交换被俘虏的皇族萧渊明时，他可是说立即就可以将侯景送回去。请求梁武帝赐婚时，梁武帝说王谢门第太高别妄想了，可见心里并未把侯景当回事。\n那么他纵容侯景筹备叛乱，是怎么回事呢？\n侯景是东魏开创者高欢的主要合作伙伴，高欢死后，侯景不愿继续做他儿子高澄的臣子，反叛并向梁朝求援。梁武帝就让自己的侄子萧渊明带兵支援侯景。然而两拨人都败了，萧渊明反被俘。侯景只剩八百人渡过淮河进入梁朝境内淮南重镇寿阳城附近。侯景得知自己可能会被梁武帝用来交换俘虏时，果断以占据的寿阳为基地，打着“清君侧”的旗号起兵造反。梁武帝萧衍听说侯景叛乱，呵呵大笑：我只要折下一根树枝就能打死这小子。实际上，他是等待侯景反叛的。\n寿阳是北魏末年局势大乱，梁军趁乱收复的，从梁朝立国到侯景叛乱期间，寿阳属北朝的时间还多于南朝时间，对建康朝廷的离心力很强。以夏侯氏和裴氏为代表的当地豪族对萧衍和南梁是极度排斥的，本质上是当地豪族联合北方来的侯景反抗梁武帝的行动。所以，北魏和南梁之间十万大军都未能攻下的寿阳城，侯景仅用八百人就拿下了。\n既然前任地方长官无力压制当地豪族，干脆让侯景去搅局，敢叛乱就来个一锅端，战后对该地区的控制可以大大加强。\n奇葩”废太子“助攻\n当初占据寿阳的侯景，最初目标不过是割地自保，然而一个奇葩的萧梁皇族萧正德主动上门求合作，让侯景看到了新的机会。萧正德是萧衍弟弟萧宏的儿子，当年萧衍没儿子，就过继了弟弟的这个儿子。没想到萧衍自从起兵自立开始，突然连生许多个儿子，于是就将萧正德归还到弟弟名下，称帝后立长子萧统为太子，就是著名的文学家昭明太子。萧正德一直愤愤不平，后来找机会投奔了北魏，对外自称“废太子”。\n北魏大概把这货当神经病，毕竟叔父是皇帝，亲爹是有大实权的亲王，却跑来投奔敌国，甚至一度有人建议杀掉这个“间谍”。北魏没杀他，基本拿他当空气，最后他受不了了，又跑回了南梁。对宗室宽厚到不可思议的萧衍不但没罚他，流泪劝诫他一番后，竟然恢复了他的爵位，让他继续做官。侯景叛乱时，竟然任命萧正德做平北将军，真是选对人了，废太子决定和侯景联合搏一把大的。由于淮南豪族的支持和萧正德的叛变，侯景从最初占据寿阳叛乱到渡过长江直逼首都建康城，都没有遇到什么样的抵抗。\n力量逆转\n萧正德起初比侯景实力强很多，在最初的合作关系中居优势地位。在萧正德看来，侯景只不过是一个凶悍的打手。侯景不久拥立萧正德称帝，自己为丞相，而在围攻建康城的过程中，双方的合作力量对比却逆转了。因为联军实力相比守军仍相差甚远，故侯景想法设法扩大自己的力量，他敏锐察觉到南梁尖锐的阶级矛盾：萧衍对皇族和世家大族极度放纵，南梁底层充斥着大量破产的农民和部曲奴婢，这些人方是沉默的大多数。\n在依靠自己的力量进攻建康失败后，侯景下令解放当时豪门贵族家中的奴婢，废除了梁朝沉重的赋税，开仓放粮，奴婢们纷纷投靠侯景，侯景也选拔他们之中有才能者为官。就这样，侯景很快就有了10w之众，都是有顽强斗争精神的构成。与萧正德合作关系中也占据了绝对上风。晚些时候，不满意侯景凌驾自己之上的萧正德试图杀掉侯景时，反被侯景所杀。\n皇族的觊觎\n事情到这个地步，完全超出了萧衍的预料，不但没能借机清除淮南的反对势力，反而使自己麻烦不断。但萧衍还没放弃希望，因为各地亲王几十万勤王大军已经要到了。可是他统治天下近半个世纪，此时已经八十多岁了，是惊人的高寿，包括昭明太子萧统在内，许多子孙已经在他之前病死了，当时的太子萧纲也在围城之内，对于那些正在壮年，手握重兵的南梁亲王来说，这是一个天赐良机，如果能借侯景的手同时除掉梁武帝和太子萧纲呢？各路援军各怀鬼胎，在力量小许多又要围城的侯景军前梭巡不前。\n城破后梁武帝被俘后不久被饿死，萧纲即位后沦为侯景的傀儡，失去了号令天下的合法性，在侯景失败前被杀。侯景最后被梁元帝萧绎击败，各地亲王丧失了约束，在侯景败亡前就大打内战，还不惜向北方的西魏，北齐求助，最终被来自南方的军阀陈霸先摘了桃子。梁朝被推翻，只剩昭明太子一系在西魏保护下继续控制着江陵一带。\n南北定局\n侯景之乱和南梁内战，打破了东晋建立后南北对峙200年的均势，侯景之乱前，南朝大约是三国吴蜀两国之和，在加上孙权梦寐以求的淮南地区，侯景之乱后，南朝丧失了所有南北缓冲地带，川蜀被西魏政权屯兵，淮南全境落入了北齐之手。基本只剩吴国地盘在南朝，这地界内，还分裂成两个死敌，陈朝，其主要领土建康城和三吴地区在战乱中遭遇毁灭性的摧残，实力大大下降，长江中游后梁政权，以江陵为首都，方圆只三百里，在西魏的保护下才能延续下去。存在的战略价值就是控制长江中下游遏制陈朝的发展空间。\n此时，南北朝由北方统一南方的结局已经确定，是北方本身的分裂和战争，才使南朝又苟延残喘了三十多年。梁武帝真正的问题是机关算尽，却对自己治下国内的尖锐阶级矛盾和皇族成员的自私心理没有充分认识。\n萧氏门阀\n\n齐和梁均出自兰陵萧氏，但萧衍和齐皇室亲戚关系刚出了五服至亲，作为血缘关系继承南齐大统，合法性和优先级并不强。且齐这个国号在内部乱杀的法统传承上已紊乱不堪，且对外战争连连战败，被北魏不断夺地，还内战不止，天下不堪其扰。萧衍换掉旧招牌，以全新国号示于天下，反有拨乱反正，咸与维新的意味。\n兰陵萧氏建立的王朝虽灭亡，但却成为中世纪顶级门阀，有唐一代就出了十位宰相，《琅琊榜》也是以兰陵萧氏为原型，火爆异常。\n\n隋杨家祖传残暴\n\n与被称为变态王朝的北齐相比，杨家三代是理性的残忍，对待被征服的城市和俘虏，治理下的平民百姓，残暴程度远超北齐。隋朝速亡一点也不冤枉。\n\n隋文帝的父亲杨忠是一位英勇善战的武将，早年滞留南朝，后加入北魏，北魏分裂后，投向西魏，长期跟随独孤信与高欢的东魏作战。独孤信在史书上因为分别嫁女儿给北周，隋，唐三朝皇族而知名。其中一个女儿嫁给战友杨忠之子杨坚。一次战役中，独孤信和杨忠被侯景打得一败涂地，无力返回关中大本营投入南梁。虽在南梁未立功，梁武帝仍给给了他俩优厚的生活待遇，等他几人想返回关中继续未西魏效力，梁武帝不但同意还亲自饯行。对于梁武帝的恩德，杨忠在打猎时多次惺惺作态，鸟向南飞就不射箭，表达对梁武帝的感谢。但而后的事情，上演的却是《农夫与蛇》。\n侯景之乱，南梁内部混乱时，西魏趁机南下在荆州方向扩张，杨忠在新征服地区烧杀抢掠，得到大量金银，但并没有将战利品上交朝廷统一分配，而是全部私吞。南梁被俘将领向宇文泰提及了此事，宇文泰考虑到杨忠功劳不小，将其外调了事，但杨忠认为他没错，错的是告发他的人。后来怕再次暴露自己抢劫后私吞战利品的行为，把控制此地区的所有梁朝贵族杀光灭口。攻破江陵城后，挑完充作奴婢的人后，制造了江陵大屠杀，只有三百多家人幸存下来。杨忠晚年还参加了与北齐的多次大战，也是纵兵大掠，也看出刚形成的关陇集团极度野蛮，残暴。杨忠的表现比起其子的大破坏来，却显得微不足道。\n杨坚不太费力当了开国皇帝，其崛起是他女婿北周宣帝宇文赟打压宗室和托孤重臣的结果，宣帝短短几年相继除掉宗室主要成员，作为外戚的杨坚才能迅速崛起，宇文赟又早早暴死，杨坚趁机控制了中枢。而后杨坚大肆屠杀宇文氏皇族，所有宇文泰子孙辈杀尽及各种旁支。顺着族谱全部灭绝的残暴，在当时堪称独一份。称帝后的猜忌心和刻薄寡恩也很突出，大部分功臣都没有善终。有许多朝臣甚至由于激怒了杨坚被打死在朝堂上，这些只是统治阶级的倾轧。\n屠戮平毁城市\n对百姓的罪行，更是夸张。其篡位过程中，控制邺城的北周宗室尉迟䢛(宇文泰的外甥，官拜相州【今安阳】总管)起兵反抗，被杨坚击败。而后在邺城屠杀一个多月。这次杀戮过于惨烈，以至于一向残暴的杨坚都会良心不安，多年后在屠杀旧址上建立了一座大慈寺超度亡魂。自三国曹魏时代起，邺城就是河北重镇【铜雀台也在邺城】，历经数百年发展，是河北最繁华的大城，出征前，杨坚就授意将领们胜利后把邺城从地图上彻底抹去，伴随一个多月的烧杀和之后对城市的平毁，邺城（邯郸市临漳县）这座超级大城彻底从史书消失了，沧海桑田，漳河改北流为东向，河道向东拦腰贯穿过邺城，邺城冲毁，看不出曾经繁华的迹象，一马平川，零星散落着几个村庄。后来唐朝的邺城（今安阳），已与河北历史名城实不为一地（但地理上靠近接壤，距18公里，比临漳县所属的邯郸市40公里更近）。\n\n春秋时，齐桓公始建邺城；战国时魏文侯定为陪都，也是西门豹投巫治邺之地；曹操于邺城兴霸业（取了袁绍大本营），建铜雀台，封王后国都也在邺城，曹丕篡汉后以此为北都；后赵、东魏、北齐相继都邺。\n\n\n同样倒霉的还有南朝首都建康，隋灭陈统一南北后，建康遭受灭顶之灾，地面建筑全部拆毁，真正字面意义夷为平地，随后开垦成田。整个隋唐，南京地区基本默默无闻，地位被扬州取代。\n大兴土木故意消耗民力\n隋文帝一大功绩是兴建大兴城（唐长安城），只花了9个月就建成，在依靠人力的古代，这么快的速度，背后同样是人民的血泪。据资治通鉴的整理记录，一个仁寿宫，死者数万。纵观隋文帝一生，堪比后赵暴君石虎，但因为他捡便宜重新统一南北终结大分裂时代，因此在历史上被大大过誉。\n杨广是中国历史上知名的暴君，但就史书事迹而言，他的残暴没超越其父亲和祖父，虚伪程度也未及他们。作为亡国之君往往被丑化到不可理喻的程度，就像开国之君通常得到额外美誉一样。隋炀帝一些被历史证明是错误的决策，除开个人品质，背后也有其政治和战略考量。\n修建大运河和攻伐高句丽，一个罪在当代，一个功败垂成。但这两个政治决策本身是一回事，不惜人力物力的蛮干，存在一个常被人忽略的战略意图：蓄意削弱原北齐控制区的人力、物力。\n北周吞并南梁西部领土后，人口有700~800w，到隋文帝篡位时，官方掌握户口约460w户，共2900w人。经历战乱后，原北齐境内户籍人口约2000w，而北周领土只有900w，对比悬殊。灭南陈时，陈朝在册人口300w。北齐境内人口远远超过北周和南朝境内人口总数之和。\n北齐灭于比自己弱许多的北周，是因为皇族内讧过于激烈。对于以关陇集团为基本盘起家的隋朝来说，北齐故地对自己的统治是极度危险的，必须尽可能多耗一些。隋炀帝开辟大运河，善待原来南朝士族，自己也以萧梁皇族后裔为皇后，有联合南朝力量压制北齐故地的因素在内。在修建大运河时如此不恤民力，很大程度就是为了削弱北齐故地人力财力优势而蓄意为之。高智商的隋炀帝，在征讨高句丽时，劳民伤财如同“脑残”，他内心希望的是北齐故地和高句丽两败俱伤。高句丽固然是个威胁，但实际上北齐故地一旦整合出强势反隋势力，对隋朝威胁更大。\n把关东地区人民视为假想敌的隋炀帝最终玩火自焚，死于最信任的关中人组成的近卫军之手。隋朝这个对百姓无比残暴的政权终于倒台了。隋末的天下大乱，关东也成了群雄混战的主战场，关中地区和江南地区遭到的破坏相对小得多。\n到唐太宗时末期，北齐故地的精华部分也是唐朝最富，人口最多的河北和河南两道，登记人口分别只有隋巅峰时期的17%和10%，人口下降比例厉害程度可见一斑，当然这种可以削弱北齐故地的行为，也使得李渊统一天下时十分顺利，给唐做了嫁衣。\n瓦岗盟主被李渊得了天下\n瓦岗寨李密是顶级豪门贵族，曾祖父李弼在关陇集团地位相当高，祖父是北周魏国公，虽然李密早年丧父，但他继承了父亲的爵位和财产，因身份高贵，早年李密被选为隋炀帝的侍卫，但隋炀帝看他不顺眼，将他打发回家了。\n初叛失败\n李密后来加入了杨玄感发起的反隋义军（二人都算是门阀出身，只是李密家族在关陇集团内部地位要远高于杨玄感），成了头号智囊，他提了上中下三策：\n\n上策是在河北蓟($j\\grave{i}$)县截击在辽东和高句丽作战的隋炀帝主力归路，夹击粮草不足的隋军主力；\n中策是进入关中，占领长安慢慢发展；\n下策是先占领东都洛阳。\n\n杨玄感选择了下策，在洛阳守军坚守和关中，辽东兵的夹击下败死。为何选择下策，杨玄感起兵时关中或是洛阳，均有庞大的正规军，辽东军在隋炀帝指挥下，一个月就回援，杨注定成为先烈。\n杨的叛军基本力量是河南地区的民众，装备差。让这些人远离老家去遥远的河北或关中作战，士气和战斗力必大打折扣。所谓上策，很难落实。等李密有了数十万之众，包括精锐的骑兵队，遇上归心似箭的隋军主力，仍极度吃力，杨招募的乌合之众去拦截，无异螳臂当车。\n隋炀帝依照宁枉勿纵的原则，大肆追查株连，一口气捕杀3w多人，流放6k多人，甚至将接受杨开仓赈济的百姓全部处死。然而李密竟靠贿赂押送者逃脱了。\n瓦岗称王\n隐姓埋名后投靠瓦岗寨，显示出了极高的军事才华，在军中的地位迅速上升，在翟让之外独领一军，攻占洛口仓胜利后，由于李密家族地位很高，开始有大批隋朝任命的官吏带着地盘来投，如裴仁基带秦琼，程咬金等来投。这个时期，魏征亦加入他的麾下。周边的饥民被粮仓吸引，纷纷加入瓦岗军，各路小武装拥戴李密为盟主。大部分中原地区名义上成了李密的地盘。李密考虑到洛阳附近隋军仍然强大，称王时机尚不成熟，决定先称魏公。\n此刻，他也面临先入关还是先占洛阳的选择。放弃洛阳直扑长安，在当时时一个胜率很小的豪赌。孤军在两方夹击下很容易被瓮中捉鳖。关中东北方向，山西长官李渊仍忠于隋炀帝，要到几个月后才会起兵反隋，一旦入关，可能要应对三面受敌局面。而且，老瓦岗军，饥民及各路叛军，基本都不愿意在攻下洛阳前入关。因此，李密必须攻克洛阳或将洛阳守军削弱到一定程度，才可能进入关中地区经营。他的队伍多是山东人，不攻克洛阳的话，怎么愿意跟其向西进关？且把绿林好汉出身的反王们留下，必相互争夺，关东就必然全丢了。\n洛阳消耗战\n作为隋王朝的东都，李密和隋朝打起消耗战，关中也派军增援，李密负箭伤，左右司马都战死。而休息一个月后，李密再次出动全部精锐去找隋军拼命，大胜，三大粮仓全部落入其手。洛阳守军再次陷入被动，甚至河北窦建德等势力都向李密表达了归附之意。隋炀帝害怕其对关中，河北控制被切断，砸锅卖铁从江淮和河北调兵支援洛阳。\n李密开始和在江淮流域剿灭起义军的王世充大战，首战失利而后三胜，洛阳地区的十几万隋军基本或死或降。王世充试图挑起李密和翟让的矛盾，分化瓦岗军，而李密干净利落火并了翟让。而这一时期关中地区落入了他人之手，李渊太原起兵后利用关中部分隋军东出支援洛阳，洛阳守军和各地隋军都在和李密缠斗的机会，从山西直入关中，很快控制了整个关中，得了大利。当李密即将攻占洛阳时，控制关中的李渊派李建成和李世民率10w军东出，趁乱捞好处，双方发生若干次小冲突，互有胜负。\n“骁果”军影响战局\n隋炀帝禁卫军大部分是关中人，急于返回故乡，终发起政变，弑君后拥戴宇文化及为主，沿大运河北上，开始向关中进军。他们必须要经过的地盘，就是李密控制下的中原地区。当10w禁卫军向李密请求借道，借粮时，李密终和禁卫军发生了战斗。\n影响李密做出决策的关键性因素，就是对“骁果”禁卫军战力的评估。“骁果”军的战斗力远超李密想象，且他中箭受了重伤。经过跟“骁果”军的力战，李密身经百战的嫡系部队基本消耗殆尽，“骁果”军也战至力竭，没能攻占粮仓而断了粮，最后大部分成员反过来投降李密。\n李密和“骁果”军恶战时，王世充在洛阳发动政变，重新和李密作对。本来只需用饥饿逼迫城里士兵投降就行，但新投降过来的“骁果”军将帅和原翟让系统的单雄信等人都撺掇李密和王世充决战。在进攻洛阳的战役中，李密嫡系内军先接战，先前没有得到恢复败下阵来。撺掇他进攻洛阳的一拨人又投降了王世充，李密一下子陷入了穷途末路，只好向西投奔李渊的唐王朝。\n卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡\n李渊对所有曾称帝称王的群雄的处理方针，一律采取设计肉体消灭的政策。\n在隋末群雄中，李密是唯一有可能同唐王朝一较高下的人物。可惜在隋朝腹心地区洛阳周边起兵的李密，必须先战胜洛阳守军，才有资格真正实行西进关中或南下剿灭隋炀帝残余势力的战略，偏偏洛阳对于隋炀帝也是绝不可失去的地方，双方在洛阳城下进行了长年的消耗战，最后几乎同归于尽。在李密麾下效力的徐世勣，秦叔宝，程咬金，则继续为唐帝国南征北战。\n李承乾为太子为何还谋反\n太子和能当上皇帝完全是两码事，尤其是站在隋唐那个年代上。他弟弟李泰已经有了都督22州的大权，几乎占了当时全国1/8，还当上了雍州牧，这可是之前李世民干过的位置。李承乾的心里肯定是要哆嗦，他要是想学习一下太子该怎么做，往前一看。上一位太子他大爷被他爹干掉，再往前看是隋文帝太子杨勇被弟弟杨广干掉，清一色的全无好下场。\n在李承乾之前顺利完成父子间正常皇位传承的太子都是陈后主时候的事情了，说明在那个时代，皇位就不是靠太子这个位子得来的。唐之前，是短暂的隋朝和混乱的魏晋南北朝，再之前是宗室内部有爱的掏心掏肺的西晋，废杀弑篡这些字眼几乎到处都是，大家玩的几乎都是承乾他爹的那套玄武门继承法：宗室们先是开刀互砍，等有实力的宗室死的差不多了，就该轮到那些有实力的大臣们了，最后顺利上位，完成改朝换代。\n往后看，整个大唐二百八十九年，皇位的交接几乎没几次顺利完成的，除了李承乾被废后的李治之外，第一个顺利继承的竟是安史后的代宗李豫，是玄宗的孙子。连代宗本人都差点成了政变的牺牲品，代宗后皇位都不是皇帝太子说了算了，得看神策军支持谁。\n历史上的太子好做的不多，历史上皇帝和太子关系大多数都是紧张的，因为在帝制环境下，他俩本身就是天生的正敌，尤其是在科举制还不成气候的时候，士绅群体不够大。当时的中国是一个皇帝宗族氏族勋贵豪强共生共治，谁都不服谁的社会。当时东亚乱了快300年了，别说太子，皇帝能善终的都没有几个，位置不是拼爹是拼命。看了几百年的大乱斗后，剩下满满的求生欲可以理解。\n立嫡立长立贤\n汉人王朝喜欢立嫡立长，只有清朝选择立贤。这个结论首先不准确。汉唐属于嫡子/长子继承的，都远不到一半，宋朝更是惨，一大半人连儿子都没生出来（绝嗣是宋朝皇帝一大特色），真正贯彻嫡长子继承制的只有明代，这么热衷，主要是朱棣之后，他自己的宗室就是最不稳定的因素，只有用嫡长子这个死命令把小宗们封印起来养猪，大宗才敢安心睡觉。\n所以立嫡立长或立贤，最重要的核心因素就是稳定。清代宗室制度和明朝不一样，不是封王养猪的制度，且要把宗室尽可能利用起来好好培养统治数量庞大的汉人。他们也想学汉人立嫡立长，子嗣不昌，像活了最久的乾隆，十七个儿子，活到成年的只有10个，到最后一次秘密立储确定由永琰即位是乾隆三十八年（此时63岁），那个时候乾隆能立的儿子已经不多了。永琰能即位不一定是因为他很优秀，主要是生的晚活得久。大多数皇帝几乎都没得选，要么是紫禁城风水问题，要么是只能与满蒙贵族通婚，近亲结婚的后果。所以立贤是一种游牧民族的变形制度，也是一种子嗣不昌的无奈选择。\n立长还是立贤，都有问题，立长司马家弄出傻子当皇帝，立贤隋炀帝戏精胜出，老领导眼光判断失误几率很大，其实还是玄武门继承法最有能力，只是不利于王朝的稳定。\n嫡长子继承制，是以官僚集团把活都干好为前提的。总体上汉族从稳定交班出发追求立嫡立长，实际情况嫡长有被废被杀病死的，不是想立一定能立。在继承人问题上，多数朝代都是灵活操作。\n安史之乱\n唐的衰落\n强盛、富庶、开放、包容的大唐是中国人梦魂萦绕的朝代，万邦来朝。为大唐盛世找到一个根源，那么这个根源最应该是：均田与府兵。士兵多是家中有田的自耕农，他们平时为农，战时为兵，上阵杀敌虽然需要自备武器，但是相较于税负的减免，取得战功还可获得封田，对于世代以土地为生的中国人来说，土地的奖励最能聚拢人心，大唐府兵勇武无双。那些年，大唐走入了一个正向循环：朝臣上战场，开疆扩土可获封地爵位官位，百姓上阵杀敌可免税，立功还有封田。大唐上下锐意进取，原本虎视眈眈的外敌纷纷被打怕打服。虽然还有一个讨厌的吐蕃，但这并不妨碍这个时代成为盛世，但盛世的裂痕也从中产生：边患日甚，藩镇割据与宦官专权如三朵恶之花在大唐盛世下依次开放，三者互为因果，交替生长，最终消解了大唐的所有荣光。\n府兵制的崩坏\n大唐战斗力来自府兵，府兵制的基础是均田制，理论上讲，通过军事行动开疆扩土可以获得更多的土地封与府兵，府兵一方面戍边开疆，一方面生产繁衍，这个模式可以一直持续下去。但是，任何事情皆有极限，中国古人为何不厌其烦的修建长城，因为长城所保护的是适合农耕的土地，而长城之外的土地大多只适合游牧，在生产技术落后的农耕时代，这些土地未必是资源，一旦过多甚至可能是累赘\n\n一个帝国如果能够持续对外用兵，其原因只可能是一个：对外用兵，是个赚钱的买卖。\n\n如果对外用兵变成赔钱的买卖，这种用兵就不再是盛世之光，而是乱世之源，但很可惜，大唐由于前期扩张太快，边境线太长，需要更多的士兵镇守，于是大唐不得不将这个赔钱的买卖继续下去。在农耕地带或半农半牧地带打仗，主场优势在大唐这边，但是一旦战场转移至游牧地带，大唐的主场优势就变成了客场劣势。超过临界点后，战争变得越来越不划算，但大唐已经回不到从前，只能硬着头皮往坚持下去。\n府兵制的基础是均田制，但是一方面，随着人口数量的增加，国家手中可供分封的公田很快消耗殆尽，而另一方面，土地兼并让无数有地农民变成失地流民。从古至今，随着社会稳定，土地和财富向少数人手中集中的趋势，就像地心引力一样不可抗拒，即使抛来权贵势力使用暴力手段的强行兼并，如果政府不加干涉，土地的趋势也是向少数人集中。\n时代一粒沙，个人一座山，支撑起大唐的府兵们家中确实有田，比给别人种田的佃农要好，但是家中那为数不多的田产也是他们唯一的资产了。一次旱灾、水灾，家人患一次重病，都会把这些在战场上无所畏惧的汉子们逼到走投无路，只能卖地以解燃眉之急，于是，他们没地了。\n地没了，边疆还得守，仗还得打，但他们没有了可以种粮换钱买兵器的土地，这仗怎么打？没有兵器上战场就是送死，去他大爷的，逃吧。于是，大唐荣耀的根：大唐府兵，崩溃了！战斗力减弱，大唐的疆域和边界又过大，那些当年被打服的少数民族还能继续臣服吗？绝不可能，于是，大唐的边患旋即又起，并且愈演愈烈，似乎永远都处理不完。\n节度使割据\n总结来说，唐在击败东突厥等周边民族后，边疆地区军事形式发生战略性转变，由进攻转为防御，为有效防御吐蕃，突厥，契丹等民族的侵扰，需在边境设立固定的军事指挥体系。而从高宗武后以来，均田制逐渐被破坏，导致流民逃户问题严重，一方面是边疆需要大量人员从军守边，一方面大量流民无处安置，于是二者结合，玄宗时期就大量招募流民来充军戍边，于是募兵制取代了府兵制，为节度使制度的出现提供了条件。既然是为了应对边疆地区快速变化的军事形势，那么改革军事指挥体系也有必要，需要建立边防快速反应部队，财政和后勤就要跟上，中央不能全部解决后勤保障问题，不能给钱就要给政策，就是允许各边防军屯田自行解决供应问题，财权下放给节度使（税收田赋不交中央，留作军费），军财治理权均落入节度使手中。可见节度使的设置是中央政府为了应对来自多个方向的边患压力，在边境地区设立军事和行政机构来快速应对而设立的，在中央无法提供后勤保障时，是政府平衡中央和地方势力的一种做法。从最初设立看，起到了加强中央对地方控制的作用，十镇节度使，85%兵力，全在边疆，可见唐王朝对边疆的重视。\n\n中央军 9w，藩镇兵力 49w\n\n\n\n\n\n藩镇节度使\n治所\n兵力\n\n\n\n\n平卢\n营州-今辽宁朝阳市\n37500\n\n\n范阳\n幽州-今北京\n91400\n\n\n河东\n太原\n55000\n\n\n朔方\n灵州-今宁夏吴忠市\n64700\n\n\n河西\n凉州-今甘肃武威市\n73000\n\n\n陇右\n鄯州-今青海海东市乐都区\n75000\n\n\n剑南\n益州-今成都\n30900\n\n\n北亭\n北庭都护府\n20000\n\n\n安西\n龟兹城-今新疆阿克苏地区库车县\n24000\n\n\n剑南\n广州\n15400\n\n\n合计\n\n486900 约等于 49w\n\n\n\n既然支撑府兵制的生产关系已经不存在，那么只有改变兵制了，不是有很多人没了土地，失了生计吗？国家招募成为职业军人，专门为国家打仗，可以吗？如果大唐的边疆没那么广，如果大唐周边的强敌没那么多，这是个好办法，如果只看募兵代替府兵后唐军的战斗力，似乎还有提升，毕竟，军人职业化了嘛。\n但是，大唐的疆域太大了，需要防御的边疆，需要面对的强敌太多了，于是，大唐派往镇守边疆的常规部队常常会遇上仅靠自己应付不来的情况，这时候怎么办？常规方法当然是找中央，找朝廷要援兵，这些兵来自朝廷，朝廷理应负责到底，遇到麻烦应该朝廷全权调度，但是，在交通、通讯等方面如此落后的古代，如果将军队的一切事物都交于中央管理，其效率可想而知，打仗哪里等得及，于是，兵权开始下放。**这里说的兵权不是领兵权，而是招兵权。**为了应对复杂的边境战事，当地的守军将领（后来成为节度使）开始根据实际情况需要自行招兵。\n\n当时构成税基主体的自耕农已经纷纷成为失地流民，世家大族们想方设法少交税不交税，长安的皇帝，其实也不富裕。\n\n于是，魔鬼一点点被释放，中央先是命令节度使在边界驻军处组织屯田，先保证将士的吃饭问题，这倒是很合理，但是这样一来，一个悖论就来了：如果粮食有余，可以换钱，节度使手上就有了一定的财权，如果粮食不足，节度使就会向中央要其他赚钱手段，无论怎么样节度使都会有一定的财务权。中央逐渐放开了盐税，铁税，其他税务也被逐渐从中央下放到地方，地方愈实而中央逾虚，当独立的募兵权和征税权都到了节度使手里，这些节度使实际上就已经是割据一方的土皇帝了。演变到最后，给钱不足，天不怕地不怕的募兵们不但敢杀节度使，也敢杀皇帝。\n最后大唐已经完全信奉武力至上，宦官掌握禁军，各地节度使掌握地方军，军队就是唯一，军队就是一切，大唐变成了一个由丛林法则主宰的帝国。\n天宝危机\n大唐天宝14载（755年），安史之乱爆发，至757年，两京收复在望，唐肃宗已经开始头疼，让他头疼的不是如何尽快平定安史之乱，而是如何安排朔方军的两位主将。\n\n他招来李泌询问：两位主将郭子仪，李光弼已为宰相，若克两京，平四海，则无官以赏，奈何？\n李泌给的对策是，不要用官位奖励功臣，此将导致将帅权重，功高难制。等天下太平后，要用土地和爵位赏赐功臣，这样他们会为自己的子孙而珍惜既得利益，不敢乱来。\n而建议肃宗未听进去，在天下未太平时，就开始防范为大唐续命的有功之臣，不让他们权重，不让他们立下高功。\n\n安史之乱打了8年，实际上与肃宗搞帝王之术有很大的关系，对他而言，打赢战争什么最重要？巩固自己的权威最重要。相州之战，九个节度使联合攻打史思明叛军，兵力占压倒优势，结果惨败，纯粹就是肃宗从中作祟。他害怕诸将拥兵自重，故未在军中设主帅，却命亲信宦官鱼朝恩为观军容宣慰使，到军队牵制各方势力。使诸将畏首畏尾，无法协同。相州之战败了，虽没有统帅，但也要有人担责。郭子仪势头正劲，那对不起就你了。遂将郭子仪解职闲置京师三年多。\n有人说是鱼朝恩构陷，谗言能发挥作用说明皇帝相信，可历史上那些挑拨君臣关系的所谓谗言，说白了都是主子借小人口说出来的心声。\n狡兔死走狗烹\n正因为赋闲，郭子仪则性命无忧。而第一战将李光弼则生命堪忧。在对付统兵将帅方面，代宗比肃宗走得更远，肃宗防范将帅权重，将他们调来调去，但还给他们留后路，以备战时之需，好再为大唐卖命。代宗这里安史叛军已被收拾，于是狡兔死，走狗烹。代宗即位两年内，为大唐续命的功臣相继死去。来瑱($ti\\grave{a}n$)先遭兵谋，后被赐死；仆固怀恩遭猜忌举起反旗，很快病死；李光弼在遭受猜忌后忧惧而死。\n当仆固怀恩被逼反，勾结吐蕃，回纥南下，代宗封郭子仪一堆官职，让他率兵抵御。郭说，招抚使是抵御叛军需要，不敢辞让，但太尉一职绝不能接受，上表请辞，向皇帝表明心迹说：早就想像范蠡（$l\\check{i}$）一样过逍遥日子，但因为寇仇在近，家国未安，臣子之心，不敢宁处，才勉为其难担当重任。一次请辞不准，再次上表辞让，代宗终于同意。\n在《资治通鉴》中落得一个社稷纯臣的评价，也折射出郭子仪周遭险境重重。别人都在玩阴谋，他一把年纪了，却只能装疯卖傻，否则就是身死家亡。于85岁去世时，已熬过7任皇帝，生命的最后20年，与皇帝们持续不断无声之战，也终于埋进了历史。\n赵宋：一个不正的正统王朝\n经常美化赵宋，而实际上也是少数官僚的烈火烹油，十之八九的衣不蔽体。在攫取型制度下，大多数人依然处在温饱线上。重文抑武，给了管家与士大夫阶层更大的空间享受生活，客观上促进了文化艺术的繁荣，不管百姓如何，如果身为百姓，却向往这样的时代，那将是啼笑皆非的。拥有世界最大的常备军，却总是屡战屡败，大宋基本可以等同于大怂。\n纵然历史上任何一个王朝都有被践踏的普通人群，但像宋代这样既没有大国崛起也没有小民尊严，有的只是君臣共治坐地分赃的黑帮政治，从人本主义史观上说，作为普通人实在没什么值得缅怀与惋惜。\n我们而今依旧如宋人般国富民穷，国内是短视频里的假美女和假消息，国外则是合法化后的大麻，把大多数人养起来，让他们过上不能思考，行尸走肉，但越来越上瘾的生活。\n\n美国也变成靠金融吸血全球，靠军工维持对外吸血，靠医疗对内吸血，靠法制维持内部吸血的攫取性制度。底层甚至中层也同药渣，精英推崇绩优主义，让每个人如同上了加速发条的傀儡\n\n开封和临安之所以能聚集百万人口，是因为皇权将数十万统治阶层（宗室，官僚，禁军及其家属）聚集在这。为了满足统治阶层的消费需求，开封和临安犹如巨大的怪兽，源源不断汲取全国人力与财力。\n还我河山莫须有\n\n岳飞是一份高洁的礼物，南宋朝廷承受不起。赵构、秦桧一心媾和。尤其是赵构这个软脚虾、脆皮狗是主要罪人，秦桧是个垫背的跪在岳飞墓前。\n\n在高宗眼里，岳飞有四宗罪\n\n议立太子。高宗其实有过儿子，但在苗刘之变中受惊吓死掉了。而高宗后来又生不了孩子，就过继了两个孩子。岳飞再三催高宗早立太子。文臣还可以建议，武将万万不可说。高宗当时就很不客气的说，这不是卿不可以谈论的事情\n淮西兵变。当时宋朝军队四大战区，淮西军是刘光世的军队，战力最差，朝廷就想把刘光世的军队给裁撤了。一开始想让岳飞领导指挥，和岳飞聊过除了韩世忠张俊不受节制外，所有部队受你节制。但此举收到文官集团强烈抵制，当时岳家军已在四路军队中最大，有84员将领，人马10w，如果再把刘光世的五六万人交给他，就是尾大不掉了。高宗就动摇收回了成命。岳飞恼火撂挑子不干了，跑到庐山自己母亲坟前守坟。他一守坟，手下10w人都休了年假。此种情况下高宗再三给岳飞写信要求其回到本职工作上。他这才销假回来，虽然让岳飞面子是做足了，但使得高宗对岳飞产生了不信任和厌恶，认为是在要挟自己\n十二道金牌。朝廷为了达成宋金和议，要求前线部队都回来，其他都很听话，马上就回来了，岳飞却要12道紧急军令才回，在高宗看来你已经调动不了了。\n不忌讳武人和文人间的交往。朝廷的忌讳，岳飞偏不忌讳，有时候也舞文弄墨，跟文人间书信往来，诗词唱和，很能参与到文人的活动中去。鉴于朝廷对武将的不信任，武将的自保之术呢一般是抹黑自己，例如张俊就做出一副很贪财的样子，韩世忠也大量去收购土地，积累财富，岳飞不怕死又不贪财。\n\n杀了岳飞后，高宗常舒一口气：今兵权归朝廷，朕要易将帅，承命奉行，与差文臣无异。宋朝对官员很宽容，纵观两宋岳飞这种等级被处死的仅此一例。\n坚定迎回二帝是误解\n徽钦俩个王八蛋北狩以后，赵九妹自己先定的迎回二圣的口号，那时飞哥还是大头兵，跟着喊口号怎么了，皇帝都这么喊。\n自从绍兴五年徽宗死了以后，岳飞就再没提过迎回皇帝这种话，因为此时对面金国宣传的也是放回钦宗回来当皇帝，这不是跟敌国呼应么，飞哥在这方面变现很正常，识大体，对钦总这个废物点心的称呼头衔由“圣”改成了“天眷”。\n莫须有\n当时杀岳飞甚至是朝中共识，除了大家简单说的迎回二帝得罪高宗（听众易信），兵权太重（实际原因），可能黄袍加身。皇帝要杀他可以理解，但大臣和将军们也要杀他，甚至是宋金的共识，是天下有钱人的共识，以莫须有，不需要理由，共识都同意。为什么会形成共识呢？因为他干了一件拓跋宏当年做的事，均田也就是土改，在解放了的北方领土上分给了宋朝的，金朝的流民和难民。你在北方土改了，南方呢？再打下去，金就被全部土改了，这还得了。所以杀岳飞是朝中共识。\n直捣黄龙府？\n无论是在与宋高宗的沟通上，还是实际军事部署上，岳飞的重点都是“还于旧都”，“直捣黄龙”是岳飞为振奋军心而提出的口号。\n基于岳家军的超强战力和岳飞卓越的指挥能力，加上两翼友军的倾力配合，且颖昌之战后完颜宗弼基本上也会不战而弃汴梁，故而岳飞恢复故土是可能的，至于之后怎么办，要看宋金的力量对比了或看具体情况了。\n\n若收复东京后下令继续北伐，岳家军冒着被分割包围的风险孤军北上才能达成目标，不管有没有撤军令，岳飞都不会兵行险着，全军为上、见好就收定是他的不二选择。毕竟岳帅从来都是善于思考、讲求实际的，“运用之妙，存乎一心”（《宋史•岳飞传》）便是这位战神用兵风格的最好体现。\n胜利下的风险\n金军在郾城、颖昌两场大战中损失惨重，“女真铁骑满万无敌”的神话被岳家军击得粉碎，但绝对未到“伤筋动骨”的地步。在岳飞班师后不到半年，完颜宗弼即统兵九万再次南下，可见金国并没有大伤元气，其军事力量也基本完好，他们在幽云地区及辽东老家的大量部队还没有调动。\n岳家军连战连胜，但其两翼掩护俱失（议和先撤了），已陷入过于冒进的险境之中，另外兵力不足的问题一直困扰着岳飞，他实际只有8w人，经过郾城、颖昌两次大战和无数小战的消耗，加之还需留下力量驻守新占城池和保护补给线，岳飞能够投入下一步作战的兵力已不足5w。\n作为优秀的军事统帅，岳飞对此是清楚的，故而在拿下永安军（今河南巩义）后就命令各部向自己驻扎的郾城（今河南郾城）和王贵驻守的颖昌(今河南许昌）靠拢，以缩短战线、集中兵力。完颜宗弼也看出了岳家军的命门所在，于是不等岳飞调整完毕，就抢先向郾城、颖昌这两处岳家军后方咽喉部发起反攻。虽然这两仗岳家军经浴血搏杀大获全胜，但对于敌人**“击我之后，断我归路”**的打算，岳飞不会看不出来。\n金军越往北撤，其补给线越短、越有利于大军集结应战。金军采取诱敌深入之法步步后撤，将岳家军吸引到开封以北的大平原上，再以骑兵发动反击，以步兵为主的岳家军极有可能被敌从侧后迂回分割。\n宋军，一旦进入华北平原、远离江淮水运的支持，其补给效率之低下、转运之耗时的劣势就会被成倍放大。\n\n南宋末年宋军“端平入洛”时，本想赶在蒙古军之前占据汴梁，结果一头扎入黄泛区导致后勤系统崩溃，最后因断粮而功亏一篑。\n\n所以，即便没有高宗的撤军令，在兵力不足且孤军深入的情况下，岳飞最理智的做法也应是后撤以集中兵力稳定防线、固守待援，而不是继续冒进。\n义军武装不应高期待\n有人指出，岳家军当时有一大优势，就是黄河南北各路抗金义军的积极配合。如果能够集中义军力量，就可以极大充实岳家军的战力，并从后方袭扰金军，前后夹攻以取中原。但从冷兵器战争史的一般经验来看，对这种类似民兵游击队的义军武装，从来都不可对其给予过高期望。由于缺乏组织引导和纪律约束，义军往往都只有打“顺风仗”的能力。\n其作用也就仅在于牵制金军部分治安力量，**假如岳家军战事不利的消息传来，号称百万的义军武装很快就会作鸟兽散。**而且其动辄几十万的数量，绝对不能当真，百万义军揭竿而起，也不过是宋军在宣传上的造势。即便岳家军继续北上，得到义军武装的支持力度也不会很大，相反岳家军还必须拿出相当的装备和补给来支持义军，否则这些人顷刻间就会走的走、散的散，这反过来又大大加重了岳家军的后勤负担。\n\n宋人一直都有高估北方、特别是幽云一带汉人“故国情怀”的误区。实际上，当地汉人在辽、金百余年以“以汉法因俗而待”的治理下，并不对辽、金怀有什么敌意，对宋也没有“箪食壶浆以迎王师”的期望，“遗民泪尽胡尘里”只是南宋文人们一厢情愿的臆想而已。\n\n士绅堕落邀请异族政权统治\n三穷（皇帝穷，百姓穷，大臣自称穷）问题就是从靖康之变到 49 年 800 年间旧中国政治问题的核心所在，也是中国为何没进入殖民时代的部分原因。王安石变法的核心是四个字：富国强兵。被批判的核心也是四个字：敛财害民。王安石评价走高的背景依然是四个字：天下为公。其变法围绕增加国家政府收入这个核心问题展开，简称『为国』，反对他的人的理由就是『为民』，那么谁是民呢？自然是天下士绅。\n对抗王安石变法\n宋仁宗期间想改变积贫积弱的局面，柔和一点的庆历新政2 年又回到老调重弹失败了，猛点的王安石在神宗的支持下变法，开了一个藏富于君，均贫于民的局面，神宗一下线，变法就遭到反扑。之后几十年靖康之变就来了，亡国了。左也不是，右也不是，尝试都失败了。南宋朱熹谈起北宋的历史教训，回答是：古者刻剥之法本朝皆备，所以有靖康之乱，正是由于盘剥过重。\n北宋亡不亡国，大臣们不关心，但对连番上书批判王安石要求剥夺王安石死后所有待遇，要求废除王安石变法所有内容，绝逼是兴趣盎然的。南宋立国之时，大家关心的仍然不是是否可以北伐抗战复国，还是在追问一个问题，就是陛下你究竟是怎么来看王安石变法的？逼着赵构一定要表态王安石和王安石变法统统都是王八蛋后，这些人才心满意足地支持南宋政权偏安一隅，直至被元朝灭国为止。\n变法三百年后朱元璋放弃唐宋的开放性财政设施，而采取一种保守性和收敛性的体制，其说出宋神宗用王安石小人竞进，天下骚然，此可为戒，其个人认知力对王安石极为反感。清乾隆直接骂王安石是个混蛋，对王安石的风评随着时间线逐步走到臭不可闻的地步。\n随着中国进入近代，戏剧性的事情来了，中华民族陷入危机后，原本那个臭不可闻的王安石，风评直接进入扭转的快车道，从梁启超开始到新中国，直接把王安石变法写入官方教科书中，其形象从一个几乎误国小人形象重塑成为一个救国救民的大改革家形象。\n金融化的萌芽\n文明的进程\n文明的发展需要人口，文化，技术等生产力因素的积累，唐宋从皇帝和贵族统治的结构转变为皇帝与士绅统治的结构，原因就是人口，技术、文化等生产力因素的累积已跨过一道关口。唐宋之前的税收是因人征税，中唐之后转向财产，国家的关注点转去了对经济的掌控程度。从王朝掌握的人口少到王朝掌控的财产越少，离亡国就不远了，这个转变可能是粮食产出的增加。就是粮食产出不仅可以支撑温饱，还可以支撑土地额外的经济性物资产出，进行远距离商贸的需求。文明进步到在人口，粮食，商业三个点之间构成稳定构型。内核从耕者有其田这个能不能活人的问题，进入到了有产者要交税这个均衡性问题上去了\n宋是中国商业社会的顶峰，三冗（冗兵冗官冗费）问题最核心最根本的是冗官，通过细密管理，让商业抓在自己手里。发展出稳固的纸币发行体系，打通流通脉络。\n冗官就要让更多士绅进入成为国家认证统治阶级的一部分，要有收益。最后形成一个藏富于民，独穷国君的局面，到处求和。面对几年一更新，不断膨胀的大臣和背后的士绅群体，力不从心是皇帝朝廷的常态。力量的不平衡是问题的根源。\n财税发展\n神宗政府对铸钱充满热情便是财税扩张的典型表现，在铸钱高峰期，两年所造铜钱数目便超过明 200 余年的总量。宋室南迁后，大部分矿区沦陷金国，铸币锐减，但南宋财政政策并未转向紧缩和内敛，相反，很快便建立一套包括东南会子在内的政权体系，作为铜钱的替代。宋代的会子不是现代意义的货币，而是某种具有流通性质的政府债券。\n大宋是个金融帝国，纸币决定国家兴亡，是利益分配不能贯彻好了才有异族政权入主中国的结果出现。\n宋代以后税收是倒退的，在财产税上几乎只有农业税和在农田计算基础上的财产税，缺了财产商业增值税\n异族政权与士绅合流\n辽金元清这些异族政权，特别是金元清三个政权，拆开看可以都算得上被邀请进来统治中国的政权。辽国的存在218 年那全都是意外，是非常不可思议的事情，辽从后晋手上拿到幽云十六州，但辽他连一个正经国家实际都算不上，是澶渊之盟（大怂打赢了却要给岁币）达成稳定的宋辽对峙后，他才从原来那个部落联邦集合体变成一个真正意义上的国家。他开始用治下的汉族统治的幽燕地区，作为国家政权建设的发动机，推广到原本仅在军事概念上存在的辽国其它地区。是汉族士绅，汉化支撑了辽国进入国家实体的进程。\n汉化才有出路。这就是辽国全部的经验总结。后来金国建立，并且占领中原。珠玉在前，有样学样，继续学辽国汉化。元朝建立，继续汉化，一方面不汉化他就存在不下去。\n异族政权纷纷选择汉化，那么什么是汉化，就是利益分配。异族政权和汉族士绅的利益分配关系，达成一种分赃式的利益平衡。与其说是税收，不如说是朝廷在收保护费。\n短命蒙元\n忽必烈占 1/3，元顺帝占1/3，其它 9 帝占1/3。\n有一个人燕铁木尔，历经世祖、成宗、武宗、仁宗、英宗、泰定帝、天顺帝、文宗、明宗、宁宗、惠宗（顺帝）11 帝，享年 48 岁。\n成吉思汗的独一性\n铁木真出现之前，游牧民族没出现蒙古帝国这般逆天的存在。是匈奴人不是全民皆兵么？是柔然人不是来去如风么？是突厥人不懂以战养战？是回鹘、契丹的战马脚力不够强，跑不到淮河以南或中亚以西？为何成吉思汗之前没人开拓如此宽广的疆域呢？草原这片江湖的政治生态是这样的，水草丰美时大家各自出去放牧，等到水草没有了，就集中到一起报团过冬，在报团的日子里大家交流一下一年的感受，顺便规划一下明年的任务。年复一年，在这帮报团的人中间总会出现一位首领。于是以这位首领为核心的部落就诞生了。部落人数可多可少，多则上万，少则数十。部落和部落之间，因抢夺牧草和其他资源，免不了发生冲突，冲突出一个特别能打的部落，其它部落便会认其为草原共主，但共主并不等于至尊无上的皇帝，他并不能支配草原的一切，而仅是本部落的资源而已。另外，其他部落对其义务有限，类似武林人士对盟主的感觉。因为再厉害撑死就是一个部落的当量，这就决定了草原上的共主必然是快起快落的。部落制的缺点非常明显，就是太松散，没有足够向心力，这种强势部落带着随从部落的模式，破坏力和影响力终究有限，很难持续且高强度的对外输出战力，以犯边和骚扰为主。汉唐就常利用拉拢一派打击一派的方式使得草原尽可能处于孱弱的非统一状态，从而降低军事威胁。霍去病为啥能开全图直捣匈奴腹地？李靖为何能举重若轻干翻突厥？草原带路党功不可没。\n千户制\n正如中原大地出了一个秦始皇，草原也等来了他的千古一帝，铁木真。他的过人之处不局限于军事领域，他实行『千户制』重塑了草原政治生态，千户制，顾名思义，以千人为单位把人口进行编队，其不仅是战时单位，还是行政单位，每个千户有固定的活动范围，不能随意移动出圈，千户长在范围内有权指定每个牧民的具体放牧场所和要求他们旅行差派徭役。战时，千户长要负责带领户内 15-70 岁男子全部出征。最关键的是，千户长由成吉思汗亲自指派。相当于让草原从部落制跳过了分封制，直接进化到了郡县制。春秋战国 800 年的活，铁木真谈笑间一个人就干完了。过大的部落瞬间被肢解为数个部落，降低了抢夺造反的几率，例如万户挂一个虚职，下面捏实权的千户长都是我指派的，你怎么和我斗。原来零散的小部落太过分散，固定活动区域，管理难度降低了好几个数量级。战败的部落奴隶，铁木真允许以千户制的方式重建，原本奴隶打起仗积极性不高，但现在相当于在新政下复国了，积极性和忠诚度都大大增加了。从制度上杜绝了中原政权大规模招募草原带路党或者直接扶持草原代理人的可能，都打散成千户了，不可能成建制一批一批去玩离间。成吉思汗通过千户制将草原的一切力量都捏在自己手里，汗庭中央集权大功告成，20 万蒙古铁骑似一人般如臂使指，这绝不是此前的匈奴和突厥可比的。\n但千户制也有弊端，和秦有点像。原来战争年代尚有通过军功晋升的通道，平定天下后，没有了怎么办？放草原上就是原来还可以通过欺负其他部落来获取不定期的资源红利，现在千户制把各自的规模和牧所都定死了，上哪去弄新的战利品？铁木真的答案是，勇士们，看看周围，全是一帮菜鸡，地狭人稀的西夏，暮气沉沉的金，再往南听说还有一个只知研究儒家理学的宋，往西是连皇位都被外人夺了的西辽，再往西是建国不久，军队都是雇佣过来的花剌子模，要怎么做，还需要教？\n分裂\n为何蒙古帝国又如此快消亡了？大蒙古帝国（到蒙哥死四大汗国独立为止）实际只存在 50 多年，时间并不算长。原因当然很多，主要原因还是成吉思汗一走，蒙古人就不太能维持中央集权的政治生态了。一项大的改革，尤其涉及国本，涉及体制的改革，光靠一代君王是完不成的，需要好几代人的坚持才能形成习惯。跟秦一样，立郡县制，始皇帝一死，天下一乱，秦二世就 hold 不住了。基于习惯，大家很自然去复辟分封制，项羽不就只想做一个西楚霸王嘛。到武帝之前实际用的也是半分封半郡县，直到平定七国之乱，推恩令才算把郡县制强行拉回来。成吉思汗后，没人的威望可以高到在如此广袤的疆域内继续实行中央集权。大家都差不多，谁打仗都不差，谁，都是黄金家族的后代，更何况忽必烈把汗位继承规则由推举改成了世袭。蒙古人就更不可能买这个账了，帝国的分裂就是必然的事情。从 17 世纪开始，当火器成为战争的主角，军事科技的进步，让草原骑兵失去了对他国的碾压优势，使得无法再出现第二个蒙古。本来你的宗教，经济，文化和社会制度先进性就不如农耕文明，草原政权自然又回到年年犯边的但打了就跑的老路上。\n蒙元算中国王朝么\n这可以从几个角度来解读：中国是定义为地理概念还是文化族群？\n\n如果是地理概念，那么日本人占领中国，建立的王朝是不是中国\n接受华夏汉文明，那么汪伪和伪满算不算中国人的政权，其头上有日本人当太上皇。用趋势当结果，可以说元已经中国化。\n蒙古人自己的认知，蒙古文的历史中没有中国这个词，一直叫自己蒙古国。大元大蒙古国，大元是什么词，元也是大的意思，大大蒙古国，是个定语，都不是国号。外蒙当前一直独立存在，争这个叙事权的话，我们就不占优，他们会认为他们占领了中国，只是奴役（殖民）了这片土地一段时间。\n\n蒙古战力强么\n其战术只对东亚古典集权帝国才有效，13 世纪，西欧战斗力虽然不强，但防御 buff点满。 蒙古西征中被打败的匈牙利人和波兰人只是一群乌合之众，军队中都是些临时凑起来的农民，大部分是轻步兵，都没什么弩兵。\n1287 年平安夜，蒙古直扑波兰首都，波兰人吸取之前的教训把木头城堡换成石头的，配置了弩炮，让蒙古人损失惨重。后期金帐汗国基本都败了，蒙古人的战法完全不适应欧洲城堡。按照中世纪德国的标准，蒙古人继续西进也是费，每个城堡都是私兵，攻打一个巨石城堡的战利品和战损消耗完全不成正比。法国能动员的骑兵比东欧的盲流军队总数都多。\n消除藩镇皇帝一下线就亡国\n封建制比中央+郡县更能维持强军力，藩镇化更能抵抗外敌入侵，其本质上是全面战争和局部战争的区别。华夏两次沦陷更是离不开宋明都解决了藩镇化，集权体制下的将领都是打工仔。\n西欧每个领主没有绝对实力，那苟住比什么都重要，防御力buff拉满，封建都是自己的兵，保护自己资源和头衔，跟你丫战。\n朱明王朝\n明朝建立的意义\n明朝的建立让汉族在1279到1912之间有个难得的空窗期，在这600年里喘一口气，不至于在异族压迫下窒息。唐的后继者是孱弱的两宋，崇文抑武为方针带来的后果是连基本盘都保不住，更不用提靖康之耻和崖山沦陷。\n唐宋元明清，若少了明朝，那么汉人在上一次统治全国的稳定期，是1000多年前的唐玄宗时期，若无明朝重塑法统，“汉人”或许会成为类似“罗马人”的历史名词。\n\n\n唐以后关中残破不堪，被金元统治近300年。\n\n\n往北半个陕甘宁被西夏统治到明朝收复，至少脱离汉族统治300多年\n\n\n整个大西南包括四川贵州土司遍地\n\n\n云南从六诏到大理，再到明初，至少600多年，当地百姓已经不知道汉字\n\n\n燕云十六州丢失450多年\n\n\n淮河自北宋灭亡近250年沦落异族\n\n\n南宋旧城被元统治也有90多年。\n\n\n如没有明朝，汉人经历持续600年的异族统治后民族意识是否能很好保留？难说。\n土木之变的连锁历史\n历史上蒙古民族是由两个基本部分组成的。古代两分为“草原百姓”和“林中百姓”。瓦剌简单来说是指西部蒙古族，清朝称漠西蒙古。“瓦剌”的意思是“森林之民”或“邻近者”。\n北京保卫战与夺门之变\n调兵备战\n从全国各地调兵勤王，含两京河南的预备役，沿海备倭军，漕运运粮军。三类都不算精锐，但也凑了22万兵员。\n当时京师军队只有1/10配备武器，盔甲。于谦又下令将南京储存武器的2/3共计126w件调入北京，还派人去土木堡战场收集明军遗弃的头盔9000顶，甲5000件，火枪1.1w杆，火铳2w只，火箭44w枚，火炮800门，装备守卫北京的明军。\n兵马未动粮草先行，北京一下子多出这么多增援部队，必须提前解决粮食问题。由于大运河的运输，通州是京城粮草主要囤积地，仓米数百万石，可充京军一岁饷。这么多粮食，不动员十几万人根本搬不回来。打北京保卫战确实也用不了这么多粮食，但蒙古骑兵从来都是就食当地，运不回来也要毁掉。除了付费请老百姓运粮，令所有来京增援部队路过通州时，自行到通州取粮，超额多带粮食到北京的，还有赏钱。大军从通州一过，顺手就把通州的粮食搬空了。\n土木惨败后，瓦剌并未乘胜直捣京师，而是几次在宣府，大同等边镇勒索财物，使朝廷得到1个月的喘息时间。\n在北京保卫战中，于谦特别重视谍报工作，英宗刚随也先大营走远，于谦就得到线报，马上下令前线大炮轰击，不必投鼠忌器。主动出击，不向也先示弱，几场城门伏击战打消了也先速胜梦，天寒地冻，各地亲王大军纷纷开拔，也先遂拔营北遁，北京城保住了。\n储位拉锯\n得知英宗被俘后，孙太后命朱祁钰监国，一天后又想立两岁的朱见深为太子。她的如意算盘是英宗若能脱险归来，皇位自然还是自己儿子的，若有万一皇位也只能是她孙子的。避免朱祁钰生母吴氏母以子贵。但土木之变后文官集团爆发出清洗内廷势力（宦官和锦衣卫）的政治诉求与潮流，局势发展已超出孙太后的控制。\n宣宗一生只有2个儿子，但由于出身，朱祁钰母子在宫外生活，在明朝藩王不得参与朝政。如果没有土木之变，软弱的朱祁钰母子肯定可以平静度过一生。事情的发展却将其推到了前台。此时朱祁钰年方22岁，正春秋鼎盛，太后扶他上马也有条件，景帝只在特殊情况下代任其位，不得改变皇统世系，死后仍由朱见深继承。\n后朱祁钰改易太子，将朱祁镇的儿子换成自己的儿子，于谦勉强签字。改换太子后，朱祁钰笼络朝臣，给官员发双倍薪水，于谦又推辞不受。明代有人指责于谦不谏言景泰帝易储之事，王世贞指出大家想多了，这是皇帝的家室，汉高帝想废太子刘盈改立刘如意，张良都不敢开口直谏，凭什么认为于谦就能说服景泰帝？\n夺门之变\n夺门之变实质是孙太后，朱祁镇与朱祁钰的政治斗争，于谦执掌兵部总督十团营，阻止发起的人不难，难的是如何善后。朱祁钰当时病危，其即位的合法性来自孙太后的敕书，而不是其父宣宗。在病危之际，孙太后复立朱祁镇当然也合法，要彻底否定这个合法性，只有废黜孙太后，将谋逆的朱祁镇废为庶人再赐死，如何面对未来登基的朱见深，此时朱祁钰病危没有子嗣（改立的太子早亡），如果于谦当日有所行动，他就不再是于谦，而是王莽，曹操，司马昭。\n\n南宫复辟当日凌晨，景泰帝听闻朝堂钟鼓大作，大惊，问左右曰：是于谦吗？左右告之，是上皇复辟了。病榻上的朱祁钰知道自己政治生命了结了，眼神空洞，嘴中无奈念叨：哥哥做，好，好。\n\n于谦用人，只看才能功绩，不看出身，得罪了不少大臣勋贵。南宫复辟同时，于谦被当场逮捕。朱祁镇说于谦可是有功之人，他知道若非于谦主持战局，击退也先，自己怎么可能回到北京呢？此时逆臣走到朱祁镇面前说：不杀于谦，今日之事无名。\n\n少年苦读时，于谦就写下著名的《石灰吟》，刚直无畏性格已经罄露。\n\n抄家官兵冲进于谦宅邸，只见正室被封得严严实实，里面珍藏的是从宣宗开始开始几位皇帝赐他的东西，对于于谦的死，天下无不冤之。\n\n于少保和岳武穆都是胸怀天下之人，是民族脊梁、国家之魂，可惜都低估了周遭的恶意。\n\n土木堡后的瓦剌与鞑靼\n瓦剌首领也先 将英宗送还北京，结束了与明朝的战争。后来，在北京城的夺门之变发生之前，瓦剌统治集团内部倒是率先爆发了一系列血腥的内讧。\n也先虽当时声震大漠南北，名义上他也只是蒙古汗廷内的“太师”，比起“黄金家族”的「岱总汗」(即太宗汗）– 脱脱不花 仍矮一头。也先无法将大汗变成自己的傀儡，因为他们分营而治，天高皇帝远。但权臣与英主的冲突，如箭在弦，面临摊牌。\n瓦剌为了控制大汗，早将也先的姐姐嫁给大汗，充当线人。其子理当继承汗位，不甘充当傀儡的脱脱不花却不买账，决心立另一个妻子所生的儿子为太子，无可调和。景泰二年，脱脱不花率先发难，也先初战不力，但不久用“离间计”瓦解了对方军队，最后杀死了这位大汗。也先下令大杀“黄金家族”后人，忽必烈直系后裔在这场劫难里几乎被斩尽杀绝。\n盛极而衰\n也先自立「大元田盛大可汗」，用北元大汗脱古帖木儿年号，表露出继承元朝大统的意思，以非“黄金家族”身份窃据蒙古大汗之位，做到这一点的唯有也先一人。可惜好景不长，不到一年时间，也先兵败身死，不是只有“黄金家族”不能称汗的天命，而是也先避不开创业者的顽疾，做到共患难，做不到共富贵。\n也先对草原的统治，能依靠的只是瓦剌的军事集团，里面的阿喇知院，是其得力助手。也先称汗后，太师之位空出来了，但也先来了个内举不避亲，把位子给了自己儿子。且为了削弱阿喇的势力，也先派人暗杀阿喇两个儿子，如此一来，其不反也得反了。结局是也先和阿喇先后都被杀，鞑靼各部拥立脱脱不花幼子为汗，瓦剌部众退居西北旧巢。\n黄金家族再次定鼎草原\n瓦剌因内讧而衰，鞑靼内部也四分五裂，25年换了三位大汗。随着1479年满都古勒汗的去世，忽必烈嫡系只剩一个大约5岁的孩童，巴图蒙克。满都古勒汗遗孀满都海夫人登上历史舞台，身兼母亲，妻子，辅臣三项重任，成为蒙古族历史上著名的巾帼英雄。巴图蒙克号称“达延汗”，也就是“大元汗”，后来再次统一了草原，异姓领主专权的局面也被扭转不复存在，不安定因素全部解决后，开始分封诸子，今日内蒙古行政区域图，仍看到达延汗分封的痕迹。\n达延汗的子孙们开始了“画地住牧”的生活，这有利于减少鞑靼内部冲突，但游牧经济很快遇到它的瓶颈，畜群增长，要求增补饲料牧地，剩余产品也需要找到渠道交换“绸缎绢布”乃至“锅釜针线”等生活用品。\n当时蒙古地区最有势力的首领是土默特部的阿勒坦（又音译为俺答，金子的意思），第一个问题通过向西武力扩张解决，征讨瓦剌，迫使其进一步西迁至阿尔泰山一带，“西海”成为土默特的领地。第二个问题，通过与中原贸易来解决，在隆庆年间，开市和通贡终于实现（前面嘉靖年间一直互打，不同意开市）。随着互市的开展，许多喀尔喀部乃至瓦剌领主也派遣商队以漠南各地领主名义到马市，民市，月市进行贸易。土默特部趁机做生意，抽贸易税或物资高价转售，从中取利。俺答的营帐地库库和屯，逐渐成为漠南蒙古手工业和商业中心，这座蒙古语里的“青色之城”，就是呼和浩特。\n瓦剌的终局\n与俺答求贡类似，瓦剌因为接近中原市场较困难，对阿姆河与锡尔河间的农区市场需求就很迫切，经常袭扰伊犁河谷。瓦剌各部在达延汗攻击下败多胜少，步步西退。为了结盟，在16世纪50年代，公推「和硕特部」首领为汗，再经过长期演变，瓦剌各部归并为准格尔，和硕特，土尔扈特，杜尔伯特四大部。\n各部的领袖领地有限的矛盾无法调和，在距离也先时代过去200年后，又开始组织大反攻，企图恢复旧有荣光，1628年，土尔扈特部占领乌拉尔河，伏尔加河流域，1637年，和硕特部入主青海西藏地区。但在东戈壁地区遇到了清朝大炮，在叶尼塞河遇到了莫斯科连发枪，13世纪遭遇18世纪，不再是势均力敌，最后一次蒙古帝国在上升的时候倾覆了，因为它是过时的事物了。\n明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么\n明和北宋当时完全是两码事，北宋的覆灭方式和历朝历代相比，都是相当炸裂的。类比放在明朝也是朱祁镇留学之后明朝打输北京保卫战才对味。靖康发生距离宋朝建立不过160余年，这个时间节点放在明朝，道长还在忙着和大臣讨论亲爹的事，放到清朝才是嘉庆九年，太上皇清纯帝刚去世五年不到，所以北宋结束时还算个身体强健的中年人，被流氓来了一闷棍，脑震荡在床上躺着不能动，虽身体没以前那么好了，但再勉强活几年还是没问题的，至于明朝到后来展现出来的情况和历朝土地兼并到了不可调和的状态是一样的。大一统封建王朝和西方殖民主义那套不同，建立后的主要经历不是对外扩张和掠夺，而是地主阶级在国家内部去压榨农民。\n\n天之道，损有余而补不足；人之道，损不足而奉有余。\n\n每个朝代运行一段时间后，都会发现少部分人太有余而大部分人太不足，这个时候若统治者遵循天道，那就要去损有余而补不足，从而让社会达到一个相对平衡的状态，如果继续遵循人道，问题就积累走到over的地步。这个考验的并不是想怎么选，而是你还有没有能力选。就像大明最后，老百姓都凄风苦雨逼上绝路，国库也没钱，军饷都发不出，但以私产输助官饷的建议遭到文武百官的强烈抵制，提建议的官员被打入大牢，崇祯也被这么激烈的场面吓的断了这个念想，不了了之。既然不能遵循天道，那自然就有别人来&quot;替天行道&quot;了。\n官僚代表地主团体，通过朝廷这个架子去吸收百姓的赋税，等收不上来的时候就需开始自救，打击官僚勋贵，就是看地主阶级能不能有人愿意吐点东西出来。等这些人没东西往外拿了，新一批轮回就开始了。明朝把这条路已经走完了，属于一个老人器官衰竭浑身上下已经到了什么都不可以正常维持的状态。早走晚走就是一两天的事，器官衰竭，大脑再怎么下指令，其它的器官也干不动了。所以朱由检跑哪里都一样。南明也属于傀儡，因为南方那些反清的人互相也看不顺眼，精力都放在内讧上，所以南明也没撑多久。明朝迁不迁根本不重要。\n清纯帝被儿子恶心\n原本在庙号体系中，有功者称组，有德者称宗，不是所有皇帝都能有庙号，如两汉四百多年28个皇帝只有7个有庙号。西汉太祖高帝，太宗文帝，世宗武帝，中宗宣帝。“太高中世”都是顶级字眼，都不是普通君主能拿到的。庙号原不能当谥号来用，谥号字多，夸的骂的好的惨的什么形容都有，包罗万象，存在的目的就是为了评价君主。而庙号是没有评价功能的，原本就是给那些有代表性杰出贡献的人才能用的，只不过唐代之后，谥号注水严重，几乎除了亡国之君都是好谥号，已经起不到评价君主的功能了。这会儿庙号也是严重超发，人手一个，就导致了庙号反而起到了评价君主好坏的作用。\n判断的方法也不是让你看字，而是看同样的庙号上一个使用者是什么德性，也就是所谓的判例法。六味地黄丸唐中宗使中宗不爱有人用了，被老妈收拾，被老婆绿，最后据说被女儿毒死，瞬间贬值，再没人用过，都觉得晦气。宋朝的徽钦度理持有者一个赛一个拉胯，有爷俩组团出国访问回不来的，有去世后脑袋被做法器的，有智商低下荒淫无道亡国南宋的，他们悲催的遭遇也让这些庙号全都是一次性使用。后世明清帝王用庙号就可看出来君主本身有无问题。\n明英宗听起来挺好，但上一位元英宗死在南坡之变，只不过他平安跑回来了不然得给他安个徽钦都可以。历史上的高宗除了十全老人，再上一位就是宋高宗完颜构，再前面的重量级唐高宗虽开疆拓土但有治家不严的形象。大宋火种金国忠臣赵构这形象太突出了，不仅杀了岳飞还对金国称臣，总被金国人骂哭，让高宗名声扫地。\n嘉庆这么搞也是因为父子关系着实一般，乾隆与赵构一样都做过太上皇，禅让后对儿子是指手画脚，不仅让他给早就死去的哥哥下跪行礼，对其能力也是各种质疑，总觉得这个接班人没选好，还向天公开许愿，如果这个儿子没选好就让老天爷早点取其性命收回去，再换一个上来。本来乾隆开疆拓土假谦虚想要个祖字的，可儿子偏偏装糊涂就给个宗，还扔了一个高宗上去，且乾隆本人生前偏偏最看不起宋高宗，也算是唯一可以抱负老爹的机会了。\n晚清塑料姐妹花\n两宫皇太后，慈禧母以子贵，但和慈安相比始终还是有嫡庶之别，慈禧也心知肚明。\n辛酉政变\n为防止辅政八大臣权力过大，咸丰临终前将自己两枚私章：御赏，同道堂 分给慈安和皇子。特别规定，凡是皇帝谕旨，起首要盖&quot;御赏&quot;，结尾盖“同道堂”，方可生效。皇帝的决策没有慈安的批准就不能生效，而当时皇子载淳只6岁，故印章就落入慈禧手中。安排是完善的，两宫地位虽然崇高，但她们充其量是拥有了否决权，但议程权力掌握在八大臣手中。八大臣也认为，两宫不应过问谕旨，更不能改，否则就是母鸡报晓。但两宫不会妥协，挡在她们前面的，只有一道“后宫不得干政”的祖宗家法。八大臣也不退了，在朝堂上纠党忿争，声震殿陛，直接把小皇帝吓尿了，尿了慈安一身。此后恭亲王坚定支持两宫太后，发动辛酉政变，将八大臣一网打尽。\n抢儿子的矛盾\n两宫太后垂帘的很长一段时间内，并没有爆发宫廷斗争，慈安在世时，慈禧深知自己妃子出身，与正宫娘娘慈安不能相提并论，事事恭谨。20年内，二人只在三件事上闹出公开化的矛盾。\n\n\n第一件事是慈禧宠爱的太监安德海案，杀他的上谕由慈安签发，可能是对慈禧专断已久的不满，借恭亲王和丁宝桢的势头，给慈禧当头一棒。\n\n\n第二件事是同治帝即位时很小，和温柔的慈安比较亲近。与忙于政务，强势精明的慈禧比较疏远，慈禧很不高兴。\n\n\n第三件事是同治皇后人选的问题，他不喜欢亲妈慈禧相中的女子，反而选中慈安相好的阿鲁特氏为皇后，导致慈禧的不满公开化。\n\n\n野史毒害，也仅仅是野史\n光绪六年，慈禧得了重病，卧病在床，慈安垂帘听政，这段时间慈禧很少露面，第二年春，慈安“感寒停饮，偶尔违和”，身体不太舒服，没有引起重视，不料在第二天夜里突然去世，年仅45岁，臣子们听说时还以为是重症卧床的慈禧，感到不可思议。\n还有一些秘史传出，吃了慈禧送的点心而死，说有先帝密诏要慈安监督慈禧，但老实人慈安却将此事告知慈禧，并当着慈禧的面烧掉密诏。写这本秘史书《崇陵传信录》的惲毓鼎 在慈安去世时，连举人都没考中，省城都没去过几回，上哪打听宫城秘史。\n慈安由病到亡，前后不到两天，有清史学者认为，慈安死于心血管病症。慈禧生了重病，听政的负担全部压到性情温和的慈安身上，事无巨细都要她决定，压力陡增。原来慈安只对大事拍板，慈禧长于处理具体事务，按记载言，慈安有选择恐惧症：见大臣，“呐呐如无语者”，“或竟月不决一事”。但慈安轻易不下决策，做的决策天下百姓都称赞，忽一死，故各种谣言风行海内。\n全然放飞\n慈安之死，给慈禧解除了最后一道权力紧箍，垂帘逐步到纱幕拿掉，再到同坐御塌，俨如宋仁宣故事，盖前此所未有也。\n丧权辱国难以理解乎\n近代史清廷腐败无能可能看得大家头晕，生气。大家之所以生气，是潜意识里将满清认作是自己人，哀其不幸，怒其不争。其实只要不把他当作自己人思考，他的一切所为顿时就合理起来了。\n大清不是蠢，就是单纯的坏。中日甲午战争时，日本也还是农业国，日本历史上第一个钢铁厂八幡制铁所，建于 1897 年，正是拿马关条约的赔款才得以兴建，完成工业革命，成为强国。\n甲午战争时，当时西方预测日本将败，毕竟其战争资源极其有限。日本发布《开诚忠告十八省豪杰书》，试图号召汉人反清复明。声称「天与不取，反受其咎，卿等速起，勿为明组所笑」，这一招，真正让慈禧慌了神，害怕了，转而把保住满清自己的权利放在了最重要的位置。起用投降派官员，请洋人介入调停战争。通过外交谈判，慈禧也放下了心，因为她了解到日本的根本目标只是要赔款和土地，并不是要推翻清政府。对大清和慈禧而言，钱财和土地，民族尊严都只是小事，只要能保住权势和地位，一切都可以商量。所以才有量中华之物力，结与国之欢心。反正不是自己的东西，卖起来一点都不心疼。\n历代的教训\n先秦\n商朝因为将过多军队派出去开荒（前提老找诸侯要钱要人去开荒）而忽略了首都的防御，被周部族一举偷家灭国（纣王应该是祭祀觉得平民羌人不行，得拿贵族诸侯来祭祀才有效，而不是『昏弃厥肄祀』，所以被反。当然周武王立国2年就噶了，留下弟弟周公辅政，建洛阳护西安-自己的儿子所在），周王痛定思痛，改换策略，让诸侯出去开拓疆土，在京畿要地周围分封安排自己家人，自己则留守大本营。此做法前期可谓是一帆风顺，然而随着分封越来越多，慢慢便不满足自己的一亩三分地，开始互相征伐，最后连周王室也不放在眼里了。结果诸侯坐大，灭国。\n秦汉\n最终秦国做大做强，统一了天下，看到商周的下场，认为都是诸侯的错，选择另辟蹊径走前无仅有的中央集权郡县制，不分封了哪来诸侯造反。权力掌控在中央，分派流官管理地方，避免地方官吏做大做强。结果流官没有与帝国同存亡的觉悟，一点不忠诚，光速投降，换个主子继续当流官。\n作为流官出身的刘邦，继续吸取秦朝的经验，觉得还是有必要分封诸侯，但诸侯得是自己亲儿子，即便天下大乱，不管谁赢天下还在刘氏手中。可低估了权利带来的欲望，权利过大皇权就受到威胁，权利过小就容易把他们逼向造反，结果就爆发了七王之乱。到了武帝，想想咱还是搞郡县制度，心不齐的问题，让儒家宣传造神，并将矛头一致对外，赫赫战功解决民众和官员的归属感。却没注意有外戚内鬼，这个内鬼就是王莽，篡了孙女婿的位，西汉亡。\n到了东汉，小皇帝不知道该信谁了，在外戚门阀压力下，认为太监没根最不可能造反，可太监掌权后，更不让人省心，借权肆意妄为，天下鸡犬不宁。紧接着爆发了大规模的起义，朝廷掌控不了局面，就将权利下放给地方自行解决。结果叛乱解决了，地方又做大了。皇帝也成了军阀的掌中玩物，各路军阀一顿征战，最终被司马家族偷了家。\n魏晋南北朝隋唐\n\n两晋南北朝包括隋唐，开始探索新道路，可编纂为一本论皇帝的花样死法。之前的禅让皇帝还能善终。\n\n司马家族再次汲取曹魏的教训，认为曹魏灭亡由于皇族太过衰弱，魏文帝大肆打压家族势力，才给了他人偷家机会。于是晋朝就冒天下之大不讳，大肆分封自己家族成员以壮大势力，相当于回到了分封制度，很快报应就来了，八王之乱降低了晋朝的实力，被外族偷家灭国。\n在南北对立局面很久后，隋最终一统天下。再次汲取前面的教训，认为很多朝代灭亡在于世家大族权利过大，威胁到了皇权，于是便决定削除老牌贵族势力，诞生了科举制度。通过选举有能者居之，然而这种做法，大大削弱了老牌贵族的势力。在世家大族的推动下加上隋炀帝的过度消耗所引发的一系列问题，很快民怨沸腾，最终被唐取代。\n唐在逐步落实科举制的同时，走汉的路数，对外军功，随着土地兼并领土大摊子难以激励维系，不转向防守转而对抗进攻，财政上不堪重负，衍生出了一个新的官职，节度使。可没想到边镇军力过强，节度使权利过大，直接造了皇帝的反，叛乱虽被平息，但大唐已开始走下坡路了，最终被朱温篡取政权。天下继续进入混乱时期，五代十国，乱了几十年，直到北宋的建立。\n宋元明\n宋吸取前朝各种教训，首先军队集中到首都既防偷家，又防地方武装力量造反。饯行重文轻武的方针打压武人（武将空有一身力气本领无用武之地），大规模科举挑动平民与世家互斗，再次太监后宫不得干政。做了所有自认为正确的事情，可大肆打压武将造成忽略了外敌，最终被一群游牧民族取代。\n朱明再次汲取前面的经验教训，重点加了防外敌，首都也迁往了边防站，搞个天子守国门，防外族和看家二合一，这次外敌被安排的老老实实的，最终却后院起火被农民起义军一举偷家。\n清\n清朝再次吸取教训处理内在问题和外在隐患，农民起义都没闹出什么幺蛾子，疆域也开拓的够大。于是当时的统治者格外自信，连前来通商的外邦都打发了回去。清在历代中央集权制度下国家治理问题做的最好，除了制度顽疾贪腐注定解决不了，其它问题都克制的不错：争夺储位的问题被解决了，外戚，宦官，藩王都没有，民族问题解决的最好的，民生新增人丁永不加赋，看似海内生平，农业帝国在此情况下则不思进取，没有改革动力，不像工业社会不断要开发新东西，农业经济没什么新产品要做。\n可没想到海那边科技正如火如荼的发展，最终问题就来自海外，鸦片战争被降维打击，被外国联军强开大门。\n我们的经验教训又多了一条：落后就要挨打！真理只在大炮的射程之内！\n从南向北统一难？\n南北之间不是地理差异，也不是骑兵水军的差异。能成功的都是新政权讨伐旧势力，新陈代谢。\n整个中国的历史是以新统旧，南方通常是一个旧政权，跑过去的，华北难守就往淮河长江以南跑（黄河/太行山一突破，一马平川呵呵了）。基于旧政权的底子，哪怕中兴一下，还是不够有生命力，这些人本身就是安逸惯了的才被打到南边的，安逸富足就享受，想他们一下子就洗心革面不现实，如东晋、南宋就没有一个新开创王朝的生机勃勃的样子。\n史观\n国家的内容是什么？国家的内容是人民。知识分子的臭毛病，就是把残酷的历史审美化。天下兴亡，匹夫有责；国家兴亡，匹夫无责。\n汉唐什么盛世？唐巅峰 5000w 人口，版图比现在还大，一直边患用兵。去时里正与裹头，归来头白还戍边。\n汉武帝3600w人口，大军北击匈奴，50w 步兵，10w 骑兵，这里面精兵可能 10w，辅兵10万，后勤兵预计有50万。加上全面的后勤加上武帝用兵 44 年（在位 54 年），几乎全国男人都得参与进去。被俘了失踪了，全家则抄没为奴，打完匈奴，全国人口减半，看汉乐府，当兵要当一辈子，十五从军征，八十始得归，道逢乡里人，家中有阿谁？\n都太残忍了，中国历史的解读特别拿人民不当人的时候当盛世，把自己放在帝王世家的角度解读历史，都把自己带入秦皇汉武，低一点就带入霍去病，其实更多是战死沙场的小兵。\n文治 vs 武功\n文治：商鞅的改革，制度设计才叫文治。能对历史和未来人的思想，社会的结构利益分配做改变，才叫文治。\n武功：开朝代，开疆拓土。\n文治比武功更难，汉文帝宋仁宗只是内政，牛掰的帝王干内政保姆肯定也能干好，只是他们干了更难的事。\n宋的科举，文官制度对当今影响很大，但也亡了天下。不是重整乱局的情况，一般是先有文治，才有武功。汉唐为何那么暴躁，因为国家只有一个上升路，去打仗，牛掰的人都去打仗了。宋朝都去考试了，可是武功就悲剧了。\n民族代码\n为中华民族写过底层代码（搭架子）的人：周公、孔子、老子、商鞅，秦皇汉武，宋祖（科举文治），朱重八（再统北方，但也设计了很多不好的制度），近代就是教员写入马克思主义。\n额外参考\n1.百家号 日落长安，终结大唐盛世的边患、藩镇与宦官 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"去工业化之辨","url":"/%E5%8E%BB%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%96%E4%B9%8B%E8%BE%A8.html","content":"\n货币出口挤压一切\n在金本位时，美元相当于代金券，其它国家想获得美元也很难，美当时还是世界第一工业大国，是贸易顺差国。可自布雷顿森林体系瓦解脱离金本位后，美国就成了彻底的货币输出国，当一个国家能出口货币且货币生产成本低廉（低于绝大部分工业品生产成本，比西班牙开采美洲金银矿低多了），就会倾向于只出口货币，从而挤压其它商品的出口。\n\n如你把货币也当成商品，那么美国仍旧是世界第一出口大国\n\n上一个货币输出国是西班牙，在美洲开采大量金银，成为货币洼地，造成它手工业成本大幅上升，只需要输出金银，就能换回欧洲和中国的商品，断绝了工业革命的希望。\n所谓世界贸易，本身就是在比较优势的基础上，进行交换。通过出口货币换取其他国家的原材料和工业品，这种趋势是制造业回流的最大阻碍，想要扭转这种趋势就是在对抗人性。就像沙特科威特在油气禀赋下只有傻子才玩制造业一样。更何况油气还有竞争对手，世界货币可只有美国能生产，生产成本比油气开采还低廉，恢复制造业，难度可想而知，只剩两条路。\n\n要么通过生产力发展技术提高到一定程度，比如 AI 和无人生产全面落地，以暴利对抗货币出口利润\n要么就大幅提高货币生产成本。才有恢复工业制造的基础\n\n阿美莉卡喊制造业回流，是精英脑子short了吗？No，美国真正的主人哪有意愿重振制造业，他们只是喊一个虚假的口号，把中国推到前面，制造中国人抢了美国工作机会的虚假话题，给红脖子对工业衰退的愤怒一个发泄口而已。让美国去工业化的不是别人，正是美国自己的金融资本，把美国工厂搬到海外，借美元潮汐成为欧日韩的主人。不仅有两个日本，也有两个美国，一个本土美国，一个金融资本控制的海外美国。\n大背景下资本的选择\n在上世纪80 年代，当时美英按着资本家给底层让利，这种状态自然不是资产阶级愿意承担的，冷战进入末期，当时第二大社会主义国家的倒向，使得西方找到一个长期靠谱的新路数：里根撒切尔的新自由主义经济（配合当时西方的长期高通胀高失业，工人运动也到了低潮期）。国内去工业化，国外搞全球化，一举多得，提供利润，打压工人阶级一箭双雕。\n斗争与供需\n\n一直有种说法，西方社会福利是跟苏联竞争的结果或者迫于苏联的压力，这种说法是错误的，一切事务的转化，内因是根本，外因起到推动作用。西方社会的福利，是长期斗争来的，也受供求关系制约。赫鲁晓夫后的苏联反而是放弃革命的反面典型，对自己内部的工人运动也是打的像狗一样。80 年代之前，向全世界输出革命的是中国，80 年代之后或者说 70 年代末期，春天来了。\n一战前生产力增长遭遇瓶颈，出现劳动力过剩，但一战后特别是二战后，生产力再度爆发增长，美欧对高素质劳动力的需求超过了供给，都遇到了高素质劳动力不足的问题。日韩有高素质劳动力但还满足不了需求，东南亚南亚非洲要么素质太低（识字率低或文化太懒），要么战乱频繁，要么政府效率低，所以整体上工人议价能力提高。把产业都搬国外？抱歉，日韩只能接一部分，当时还有东西方冷战的压力，最理智的选择是，提高本国的福利待遇，这样工人能给各阶层生产足够的产品，分给工人的比例提高了，上层拿到手里的财富也足够过奢侈生活。\n在上世纪80 年代苏联尚没解体，但社会主义阵营已开始衰退，里根撒切尔开始砍社会福利了，跟中国的开放也有一定的关系（大量的高素质劳动力潜力）。他们搞的新自由主义经济实际上是靠着透支未来做成的，超发国债寅吃卯粮（里根上台国债 9000亿，卸任下台2.6 万亿，美从债权国转为借债国），自然能做到两面光。本来这种玩法，长久不了，到了 90 年代就要出问题，结果苏联轰然倒塌（苏的倒台核心是自己背叛了自己的理想），吃了一波大饱，让他们错误的认为这是一场正确的道路，甚至还喊出了文明终结的口号。\n没有了外部压力，新自由主义 $\\longrightarrow$ 金融垄断资本主义，它们可不关心什么地区和民族发展，只在乎赚取时间的速度，带来的内部问题和撕裂终会带来革命或危机。\n历史的回旋镖\n可这条国内去工业化的路，也达成了军工凋敝，自我兵解。像北宋一样，将压迫的屠刀朝向支撑自己力量阶级的时候，最终是劳资内患得到解决，但会被外敌攻陷，可这条路想回头都难。\n中国的吸星大法\n除了世界货币带来的产业优势变小，更重要的是中国崛起导致美国去工业化。23 年全世界制造业增加值 15.6 万亿美元，中国 4.68（30%），美国 2.8（17%），假设中国不存在，那么增加值 10.92 万亿，美国占比 25.6%，90 年后其巅峰占比也才 25%左右（1950 年时是真强，约占全球40%），也就是说若没有中国，美国其实并未去工业化，美国去工业化是站在中国的角度看的。\n\n一般来说，制造业门类可以分为 5 个板块，目前的美国只剩下后两类高端制造业，且还保留着很强的实力，但前三类的中低端制造业已经基本消失，也就是大家说的『空心化』\n\n纺织、皮革等基本消费品的制造\n塑料、食品等加工业\n石油、木材等资源加工产业\n汽车、飞机等中高端制造\n芯片、生物制药等高科技制造\n\n\n\n为何中国崛起导致？原因在于中国实在太大了，在以往的工业国中，美国就是体量人口最大的国家，88 年日本人口是美国一半，现在是其三分之一，此种情况下就算美国产业向其它国家转移也问题不大，因为这些国家体量有限，所以吃不下多少产业。中小型经济体在获得高端产业后，必须放手中低端产业。这样从比重看美国还会是世界最大工业国。但中国完全不是这样，人口是美国的 4 倍，01 年中国入世是历史上第一次出现美国向一个体量远大于他的国家转移产业，所以才出现美国被吸干的这种情况。美国体量若是一只羊，之前的都是些兔子，而中国是小马来吸羊奶，马长大了羊自然被边缘化了。\n在中国巨大的的工业化趋势下，去工业化的国家老牌工业国无一幸免，都在急剧下滑。美国由 25.47%降到 15.5%，日本由 18.8%下滑到 5.1%，德国由 7.77%下滑到 4.75%，法国由 3.67%下滑到 1.66%。美国的下滑幅度是最小的。现今的工业格局是在中国工业极速狂飙下带来的，除去中国都在去工业化。\n哪怕某一天人民币国际化了，升值会导致消费能力大增，工业上限远大于美国，加之对产业转移的管控+机器人世代的来临，未来同量级的中国去工业化恐难上演。\n个体的追求\n去工业化往往不全是国家的选择，还是个体的选择。美国人在上个世纪80年代就形成过中产阶级的高覆盖比例，这些中产中的不少人，就是产业工人而来，但是到了他们的下一代，这群孩子不再愿意进工厂。因为他们父母花钱让他们受教育的原因，就是让他不用再进厂赚钱，所以他们宁可当健身教练也不会进厂。美国产业工人工资高，是社会治理抗争的结果，一方面不愿意干的人确实太多了。\n工业的核心是利润空间，直接服务人能获得的收益显然要高于服务机械，当聘用人工成本影响利润空间时，工厂就会主动搬走。\n现在科技服务业也是如此，在新兴高科技公司中，知识产权确权体系才是最重要的生产环节，知识产权的确权往往会极大程度激发高级工人的积极性，高科技产业如此令人着迷的原因就是因为个人因素占比更大，工人的稀缺性更高，雇主也愿意为了高额汇报付出更大的代价。这个阶段的工人们就有机会跨越阶级，但一旦过了知识产权的确权风口，产业结构发生改变，新晋的工人又会承接了打灰的工作。\n当农业化社会彻底进入工业化之后，工人就替代了农民的位置，所有人都在等着压榨中低端制造业工人的价值吃饭。这种社会分层的事情，第一代中产中的聪明人心知肚明，他们不想让自己的孩子变成代价，所以会主动培养自己的孩子，脱离低端制造。\n工业化的厚黑社会学规则\n世界任何一个地域想保持工业化，且不断往工厂输送廉价劳动力，都只有5个办法\n\n让一部分潜在年轻人的父母处于贫困线左右，保持工人及其家庭的饥饿感\n引进移民，贫困国家来的移民多受过苦难，对这些人来说，最重要的是吃饭，而不是工作本身\n压低整体教育水平，对教育进行筛选分流，让部分年轻人无法接受高等教育，跳不出循环并且构建信息茧房，让打工人只能内部比价，双层夹击下无法脱离内部工业循环\n降低社会福利期许，对产业工人和农民发极少的退休金，同时调高退休年龄，这群过过苦日子又有孩子的人什么都不会抱怨，有想法都会憋在心里，老了之后即便有一万个不情愿，也会选择进厂打工。社会福利化是工业化大杀器，有了最低保障人们会天然的拒绝逆人性事件\n背上债务。杀死一个人最好的办法不是肉体而是灵魂，房贷加上孩子的软肋贷，就是逆人性的开始，也是进厂的开始。甚至说，负债不是目的，让大家好好工作才是精髓。把工作理由描述的再好，市面上绝大多数工作也都是基础工作，薪资待遇一般\n\n美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱\n美国在经历工业化高峰+美元霸权确立后，导致民众没有辛苦从事体力劳动的动力，而更倾向于从事金融，医生，律师等高收入服务行业。\n美国工业创新能力的衰败，产业空心化的本质原因，是基于美国社会发展水平下的民众选择，这是美元霸权的福利，也是美元霸权的代价\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["经济"]},{"title":"发展自己的工具箱","url":"/%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E7%AE%B1.html","content":"\n看到别人的东西组合出价值，想要模仿时，就会意识到，别人是N年前打好了深厚的基础，才会有这一天。\n开宗名义\n发展自己的专长，的确存在漫长的爬坡期\n\n前期慢，后期加快，新内容的比例会保持在一个美好的数字上（新问题本质都是基本零件的复杂组合）\n临界点与涌现\n\n高手有深入研究问题的工具库和习惯\n\n善用写作\n注重输出\n\n厉害的人也同样艰苦，你没那么孤单\n\n蹚过漫长的爬坡期\n枯燥和乏味是常态\n脱口秀节目的演员在台下也和码农差不多，熬夜改稿，一遍遍反复练（台上几分钟，台下得折腾一礼拜）。你听了哈哈直乐的段子，他们自己是笑不出来的。\n\n干喜剧的抑郁症不少。医疗剧经常演帅哥美女在医院搞对象，殊不知医学相关书有多厚，部分医生还业余练散打。律师剧也各种制服男女搞对象，其实大部分律师也是一箱箱看材料。商人说难听点就是到处求人调资源。\n\n特别厉害的人也一样艰苦，一样会没灵感，你没那么孤单\n增量学习策略最佳\n\n如果你学的都是新东西，大脑很容易过载，导致沮丧失落，然后就要放弃；但学的都是已了解的东西，又会觉得乏味。最好状况是所学中含有15%的新东西\n在一个领域知道的越多，学习得也就越快，后期存量大了，新东西就接近15%法则了，又快又准。前期填鸭式教育，等底子好了，就到了15%的快乐教育阶段\n\n临界点与涌现（emergence）\n在二八定律作用下，积累期会有种错觉，在未过临界点前无比痛苦\n\n新特性不包含在其系统组成部分或先前系统状态中。如生命现象是化学的一个涌现特性，心理现象是从生物的神经生物学现象中涌现出，物理学亦同样广泛拥有此类特征。\n到了一定程度，慢慢就有了组合型和扩展性。基础部件懂了，别人的东西很容易看一遍就懂了。\n碰到新问题，就在已存在的巨大知识库中搜相关内容，组合后进行快速输出（新问题本质都是基本零件的复杂组合）\n过了后有种天地宽的感觉，蹚不过，就一直是二流水平\n\n靠爱发电，找到内驱很重要\n\n坚持这个可贵的品质，有个最大的毛病 – 不可持续，除非一直被人逼着\n\n\n如当兵的的人有的说最讨厌就是5公里负重山地跑，但军队里没选择，只能每天跑的肝胆俱裂。好处也很明显，退役多年身体倍棒，但退役后就再也不坚持了\n\n\n很多人无法坚持到越过临界点，区别就在于是否能在没有感觉的情况下趟过漫长的无聊和低成就感时期\n\n工具箱式的积累\n\n捡垃圾式开宝箱和装备合成\n\n生活有点像游戏中的捡垃圾，到了一个地方，先把那地方的箱柜都翻一遍，找出有用的东西，将来升级了技能后，这些垃圾就可以合成高级玩意，成为得力工具，继而战斗力更强，幂律增长，开始超级慢，而后加速。\n捡的时候有时并不知道有用，甚至会丢掉，用的时候又找不到，边掰边扔。\n\n人的大脑是关系型图数据库，你记住的所有东西强依赖大脑里已有的东西\n客服这一点带来的负面效应，可借助写作这个工具，给捡到的每个垃圾找个位置存放起来，弄懂了的，用自己的话描述一遍，分享出来，链接到原来的知识树上，这也是费曼学习法的核心内容\n\n知识半衰期+持续学习\n从学校出来的知识，5年一个半衰期，十年的知识只有一开始的1/4\n要突破天花板到更高职级，对整体知识的要求，数量是不断增加的。伴随着知识价值的萎缩规律，想达到知识总价值的提升，需要不断有新的知识补充进来，所以不断的学习探索很重要。\n涉猎未知领域，新知识比例在15%以下，大脑才好接受。这是一个循序渐进的过程，每个人的学习风格不同，善用自己的方式和渠道就好，但与人交流时一个非常高效的方式。\n除去能力的积累，还有一项洞察问题和机遇的能力，更为重要。结果 = 发现问题+ 解决问题能力。引领自己走在人前，洞察力必须在先。\n注重输出-- 不断提高自己输出价值的能力\n\n学习基础知识后，如果每天都接触全新的知识或解决各种难题，确实没必要计较看多少书，在实践中持续学习和思考，在输出中锤炼。商人在这点上很明显，看书不多，但一直在解决各种难题，在实践中持续学习和思考，时间长了也变得非常不得了\n如果你在互联网上只是消费自己的时间和精力，而没从中赚到啥的话，那就就成为了互联网的道具。最好是向这个池子输出点啥，你不输出你卖啥呢？卖时间和隐私信息？【No Free Lunch】\n\n养成研究的习惯\n碰到一个问题，普通人可能百度一下，了解个梗概，而受过系统训练的博士可能通过多种方式，深入地把这个问题研究透，一般人没有博士们研究问题的那种心力，也不具备深入研究问题的工具库。\n高低手的区别\n\n工具箱巨大不无vs小得多（顺应工作的需要，也等价于门槛）\n高手有深入研究问题的工具库\n思维方式同样是个大工具箱，从实践中来到实践中去\n\n工具库越来越比人本身更重要，超越了人类自己，大到空间站，小到纳米手术刀，论文库，EDA，信贷，本质都是工具库里的工具。\n举一个生活处处工具箱逻辑的例子\n销售岗一般存在这样的洗礼过程\n\n头大半年一单也没谈成（熟悉流程和见世面）\n先跟着别人去搞订单，一般三四年才能独当一面\n销售这种靠搞关系的工作，也有放满基础部件的工具箱\n\n每天对着镜子练习习惯性微笑\n怎么判断对方是一个什么样的人，该用什么套路打交道\n说话前要调整心态，因为心态影响预期，别人都会感觉到\n真正的销售过程中，需要话术引导-- 不同的人有不同的软肋\n\n有些人喜欢听别人夸他\n有些人受不了别人对他好，受点好处就想还回去\n还有些人油盐不进，就等着你说回扣的事，而且你得说的非常专业，让他知道你也是专业人士，自己拿回扣很安全，不然他会一脸正气的告诉你施主请自重\n\n\n\n\n\n每个人都是一把锁，得找到你钥匙链上的那把对应钥匙，有的人可能是好几把锁得试好几次，甚至得临时发挥几把钥匙组合一下\n结语\n\n让我们搬出Jobs的名言\n\nYou can’t connect the dots looking forward, you can only connect them looking backwards.\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["HR"]},{"title":"变革是一把手工程","url":"/%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%8A%E6%89%8B%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B.html","content":"\n变革是一个亘古话题\n热力学第二定律的“死寂”宣言，可能是最终的宿命，但时间尺度太远。从更哲学的角度看，时间可能就是不存在的，时间就是运动。自然在运动，人在运动，组织在运动，这是无可否认的，在商业社会“竞争性毁灭”的压力下，一个企业（组织）的变革是无法回避的问题，甚至咱们有一则很顺口的话，改是找死，不改是等死，狭路相逢勇者胜，找死还有一线生机，总比等死好。\n商业的本质就2条\n\n与众不同（产品领先）\n成本领先（效率驱动）\n\n企业发展的大了，都不是单条腿走路的。与众不同是艺术问题；成本领先是通用问题，常见的要效率的一个解决方案是数字化转型、信息化整合，道路大家都懂，可很多公司走不到自己想要的彼岸，这是咋回事，就这个问题就记录一点点。\n虽然内容聚焦数字化转型，但制度转型，文化转型亦然，没有不是一把手工程（道理相通只是没数字化转型复杂），标题没毛病\n\n数字化转型\nMedia公司的说法\n转型不是0和1，而是广度和深度的问题，每一个环节都可以做得更深，不管是与客户的交互，还是与经销商的合作，及制造环节，产品体验等各个方面，都是逐步深化的过程。\n个人觉得这个表达是非常具有代表性的，各个领域求深度，整个公司求广度。\n数字化如果单独靠技术部门来推动，实际是产生不了效益的，成功的关键在于，大家思维的改变，说句不好听的话，思维不变的人肯定是要被一把手挪窝的。\n任何一个重大的转型（如数字化转型），sponsor（推进人）都是业务的领导，作为推进人，在业务是一把手，再加上IT数字化的团队，大家一起搞。为了打破鼓励，分散困境，一把手定下了“一个美的，一个系统，一个标准”的变革决心。光重构数字化转型基础，统一流程，IT系统，数据标准，美的就用了3年时间，正因为一步步的推进，才有可能迈入到柔性制造，智能制造的阶段（由制造到智造）\n总而言之，转型是一把手工程，如果一把手不推，永远推不动，一把手思维，再大的困难也会解决。\n摸石头过河\n美的的数字化转型，每年投入数十亿，老板坦言心中也很忐忑和如履薄冰，不知道投下去有什么确定性的收益，听到老板说这些化，CIO应该脊背发凉吧，哈哈\n这就引出了一个好玩的话题，历史上大规模的数字化/信息化不是没发生过，人性没变过，太阳底下新鲜事就不多，过往的成败有可以援引学习的东西吗\n回看ERP年代\n中国入世前后，制造业与世界接轨，要想发展的好，无不要致力于追求成本的降低及作业效率的提升（改善营运绩效），当时的大词是ERP（的确没有ERP企业也大不起来），导入ERP拥抱数据化/信息化是各有抱负的老板绕不开的选择。\n从网络上的文章结论，得出一个奇怪的现象，虽然没有公司宣称ERP导入失败，但听到各种发声的印象是没有让人满意的ERP。且但凡经历过ERP导入的人，除非负责人是皇亲国戚，常见的结局是被换掉，随之带走一两批工程师。ERP成为企业之重器，亦成为企业最大的killer应用系统，杀死最多的IT员工。宏观上看，不是ERP不好，是它赶上的年头不好，深刻理解和有成功导入经验的人太少，跟社会主义初级阶段996，过劳死一样是一个时代赋予的注脚。\n因为ERP系统的复杂性（这跟做复杂的大型软件项目一样），成功导入ERP不仅仅是技术上的事情，还有很多人的因素的事情，如果你仅仅有技术视角，大概率上失败不难理解，从微观上看，除去技术外有哪些问题或人的能力问题呢？\n\n辅以说明ERP系统的复杂，Oracle ERP约4w+的表，SAP ERP则超过7.5w张，也要为技术端开解一下，出发点不是喜欢把系统搞得辣么复杂，而是现今企业运营就是很复杂，one size的套件，又涵盖了解决业态或异化需求的边边角角\nOracle是美国的，在全球化管理和供应链定有绝招，SAP起于德国，自然在制造管理精细和科学上无出其右\n不是所有的企业都有财力导入SAP，Oracle，也有一些是本土雇人慢慢开发或用本土软件厂商的产品，当年不少高校老师也搞ERP挣钱。成熟的软件，就像一件one size的成衣，让不同身材的人穿，肯定难以满足企业各式各样的需求，但中小企业还是别怀揣自行开发的梦，导入套装仍然是最优的选择\n\n\n启动阶段，往往需求由各部门派熟悉部门运作的人负责，但这些人还是境界和认知不够，通常只考虑作业层面的需求，未考虑高层所要的整合咨询与公司未来政策，定制化的部分若只听他们这群人的，搞成单一部门功能便利性的作品，出品一定完蛋。满足不了高层对ERP的期待，最终迎接的就是管理层的责难，花了上亿的钱，数年的时间，在决策管理上，没有差异。\n需求描述与真实本质诉求不同，与IT实施方认知差距大，鸡同鸭讲；IT人员具有企业Know How的顾问师寥寥无几，有些外部顾问对企业的商业逻辑，政治和文化亦不够了解，难以贴合指引定制化，加之没有工程师可以了解ERP的所有环节，技术和商业逻辑均十分片段，大错偶尔，小状况不断。\n相关系统无法正确的提供资料给ERP系统，使得依赖细微数据的ERP功效打折扣\n使用者厌恶改变操作习惯，ERP偏偏带来全面性的变动，全面上线时，因为定制化一般做的不好（甚至中英掺杂的语言障碍），到处遇到大大小小地排斥和嫌弃，充斥信息危机\n经费花销大，工期长，有些软件合约霸道，尤其是当高层参与不够的情况下，不能最短时间内有效解决跨部门整合所衍生的冲突和变革，必然超工期和预算\n\n上面说了那么多不好，但毕竟还是有不少明星企业挺过了那个年代，不管导入阵痛和周期多久，但结果是成功导入，迈入一个新的全新的发展阶段。这一定有赖于一把手的信念和推动，借台词来说老牛在腰间，龙头在胸口，人挡杀人，佛挡杀佛。有幸成功参与（若干）大制造ERP成功导入的人，所积累的资历和经验亦是让人稀缺的羡慕。\n多说一句，那是一个洋和尚念经好使的年代，当今中国的巨头皆已换成本土企业，新一轮中国的信息化到了摸石头过河的阶段，需要的人才能力模型更加强大，人才的竞争不仅仅是IT部门的，同样对新时代的管理层，毕竟将熊熊一窝，sponsor不行，结果一定趴窝\n人才\n数字化转型的组织能力配套里，核心还是关键人才，很多是领导人才。例如美的把老的，思维跟不上的都换了，都是最近几年的年轻领导带领公司的转型，发展。在此自我革新过程中，大量的改造，基于现有的人员，不断进行训练改造思维，聘请外部专家，甚至找第三方机构协助，整个组织能力最核心的改变是关键人才跟领导人才的升级和配套。\n对顶部（关键/领导）人才的期待要要求–综合性和桥梁性。既要懂业务、产品、技术的人，又要懂数字化的科技人才，这种人很稀缺。作为科技型人才，你只懂数字化技术不算厉害，牛逼是你深刻理解业务，还要对未来的业务模式，方法有深刻的洞察力（未来的业务机构），这种人有何种竞争力自不必多言。简单点来说技术专家结合发展成为业务专家，依托业务成功打造你自己更大的成功，一个人一生能选择的成功业务其实也不可能很多。\n\n如《穷查理宝典》里所说，若想在任何领域拥有竞争力，就必须熟练地掌握该领域的方方面面，不管你是否喜欢这么做，这是人类大脑的深层结构决定的。你必须有浓厚的兴趣去弄明白正在发生的事情背后的原因，如果你能长期保持这种心态，你关注现实的能力将会逐步得到提高，如果你没有这种心态，那么即使你有很高的智商，也注定会失败\n\n因为是人才之争，除去关键人才/综合型人才，吸引其它人亦必然要付出。例如美的是哪里有数字化技术人才，他们就设到哪里去，在深圳设立了办公室，在上海也有。由硬变软，更加数字化，为了吸引人才，愿意为人才设点。\n过河方向\n在组织结构上，包括互联网公司都推崇高度分权高效率的事业部制，但视效率为生命的制造业甚至奔在了前面，也许是压力使然，没有空间再等下去了。\n随着变化越来越快的时代，需要的是高度快速反应，敏捷性，韧性，灵活性，如此在组织转型的思路上，朝向的是大平台，小组织，小团体，小单元，小业务，小分队。后台是高度的一致性，根据企业的数据，技术，追求敏捷。建两个核心，一个业务中台，一个技术部门，前方全是小的团队，区域的，产品的，以某一个业务板块划分。\n这也是当前中台为什么这么火的原因，我先前甚至还写了一篇中台的林子好热闹的文章，以显透彻沉着，看得越多，越觉趋势最重要，早信早超生。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"可复制的领导力","url":"/%E5%8F%AF%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%8A%9B.html","content":"\n中西方的领导力有区别吗？\n东西方教育理念不同，西方注重标准化，认为只要按标准操作，一切任务都可以完成，东方则依赖能人的实力。西方企业主张管理能力由一个个工具组成，可进行标准化。\n执行力是一个伪概念\n企业领导心心念的执行力是一个伪概念，不属于规范管理学的概念，是培训课程市场化的产物。在西方管理学中，员工执行力跟老总的管理能力密切联系在一起，管理能力强悍才能衍生出执行力的坚决。如果员工执行力不强，代表企业老板的管理能力不过关。\n\n可能基于基督教性本恶的理念，员工的执行力是跟老总的管理能力配套的。\n\n当之前看一分钟经理人的时候，提出领导要明确任务。但没有给出实操的样例，因为学习是通过模仿和榜样来的，领导力的习得也是参照你能模仿的路径才能掌握。结合《你的灯亮着吗》里的说法，交待一个事情，下属要是能做好，离不开多想几个问题。\n\n在理解问题之前，至少准备好接受三种可能的出错情况，想不出来说明你根本不愿意思考\n\n最好的实操路径：\n\n\n布置任务\n麻烦你重复一遍\n你觉得我让你做这事的目的是什么\n你觉得做这事会遇到什么意外？什么样的汇报，什么样的自己搞定\n有更好的想法和建议\n\n沟通漏斗你甩不掉\n在沟通中，我们经常会遇到一个问题–沟通漏斗，你心里想的是100%，在众人面前表达时，已漏掉了20%。这80%的内容被倾听者接受后，由于文化水平，知识背景等关系，只留下了60%，实际上被消化了40%，行动时已变成了20%。\n\n所以纠偏动作第一位，提效动作第二位\n\n通过他人做事，即刻变身\n在公司里面，最大的成本是重做，在砍柴之前，耐心的磨刀是十分必要的，不要拿着钝刀子就上山，不但费力，还没什么实质性收获。\n管理者的头脑定位是“通过别人”，这里建立团队就是重中之重，最终能达到你出差，出国，团队自然运转下去。判断你带团队的能力或检验你的体系，就看你的输入产品和输出产物，最好是输入3流人才，1流结果，这里麦当劳就是好的体系（店长才要求高中以上文化），反过来就糟糕了。\n不要将管理说的很大，只要通过他人做事，此刻他就是一个管理者，哪怕普通的放羊人让别人帮他放羊。\n获得领导力伴生于公开象限的扩大\n个人工作的进程，其实就是公开象限不断放大的过程。一个人如果有足够大的公开象限，就会拥有优秀的领导力。\n\n说实在的公开象限的用词，如果只考虑4象限，不那么精准，如果你扩大想象到超空间，把象限看做维度，感性的层面会递进一层\n\n团队是球队不是家\n团队不应该称为家，而应该是一支球队，大家聚在一起是为了进步，为了赢得最终胜利。\n大船船长莫划船\n在海洋型国家中，常把管理者比如船长。小船吃水浅，没机会碰到水下暗礁，但大船吃水深，就可能碰到暗礁，如流程问题，绩效考核问题等，这时船长要做的其实是制定航行战略，避免暗礁等重要事情，而不是去划船。\n目标明确，专注主要矛盾\n作者举的一个例子很有意思，碰到自己之前的中学老师，老师说：就是你们这些好学生让我操碎了心。甚觉诧异，不应该为学渣操心么。其实不然，老师每天在教室里边转边数，清华北大上交复旦，数够15个能上好大学的，才能安心去吃早餐。那么15名以后呢，老师回答，只要别捣乱，别影响这前15名就行。\n\n看到这段老师的视角颇有醍醐灌顶的震撼，我是一个没注意或珍惜老师良苦用心的娃\n\n赛马不相马\n赛马不相马，人人是人才。当人数较多时，最重要的是管理者创造一种公平竞争，积极向上的氛围，重视赛马机制的建立。\n一些其它\n价值观和使命是企业区别的高级状态\n公司无论规模多大，都可以建立属于自己的企业文化，是价值观，信念等精神因素的结合，是一个企业文化区别于其他企业的最高级状态，在精神上将员工凝聚在一起。企业文化的特征在于独特，西方很多公司用创始人自己的名字命名也是这样的一种诠释。\n团队一致性 – 持续弱刺激\n任何一个员工反馈的时机，都是打造团队一致性的好时机。发奖金的时机就是一个好时机。\n善用激励\n技术人员转管理经常激励手段很单一\n虽然你能掌控的资源可能是有限的，但有意识的制造资源的稀缺性，是需要去锻造的，打破给人提供充足资源的习惯性做法\n撒谎的信号\n一个人在撒谎时，会抚摸自我安慰区，女性的自我安慰区是胸口，男性的自我安慰区是脑后。另外耸肩，摸鼻子，抓痒，快速眨眼也是说谎的一些信号。\n绩效最终体现在员工的成长中\n员工为企业的成长投资了最宝贵的资源–时间，因此企业要保证在这些时间内让员工有所提升，企业严格管理员工，是为了提升员工的职场价值。对职场人士来说，如果在工作中没有开拓新领域，获得新能力，只是日复一日重复，所谓的”工作经验“是非常廉价的。员工的进步跟管理者的严格管理有很大关系，是团队自信的底气。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"后疫情时代房价观察","url":"/%E5%90%8E%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F.html","content":"自三道红线和指导价开启的调整\n本世纪最伟大的两个营销骗局，钻石和房子。钻石已经被戳穿了，作为哺乳动物繁衍后代是刻在基因里的终极使命，所以捆绑这个主题进行营销，总能成功给消费者洗脑，没有房子就没有生育权，搭配没有钻石就没有择偶权。\n2021年开始，中国的房地产市场经历了连续三年的下滑（基于人均住房面积+居民上门宏观杠杆率，官方主动踩的刹车），这算是自商品房市场成立以来持续时间最长、跌幅最大的一次调整。当前市场步入『以价换量』的阶段，房价跌幅大于租金。\n楼市一次性拿走整个社会 50 年的财富，出现了短暂的十几年繁华，成就了少量的超级富豪，领先全球的城镇基建，外加一班的房奴和一班的老赖。\n这次调整周期中，中国的房价到底下跌了多少？\n从 重点50 城来看，上半年平均租售比为 1:590（相当于 590 个月能收回成本，约 49 年），但仍远低于国际合理区间（传说全球合理区间为1:200~1:300之间，也就是售租比 16.7~25，租金回报率 6%~4%），理论上仍有修正空间，但其收益私有化，成本社会化（资本来自外部，推高的成本又有全民买单），风险全民化的特征，实际也没什么太多下探空间，只能死扛到『科技竞赛胜利/产业结构胜出』$\\longrightarrow$收入上涨来缓解。\n\n至于为何会进展到如此地步，可以联系看看经济与债务。胆子大的奸商是有，但造成整体产业高杠杆高周转等风险问题的制度绿灯，都是为了加快房地产的流转速度，而房地产流转速度的本质就是土地流转速度，不就是城市的发展速度吗？所以我们已经在为城市化进程过快的果买单了。\n预售卖光的烂尾楼监管账户钱去哪了\n\n房企根本不把房款打进监管账户，而是进普通账户「这里是监管尸位素餐+开发商舞弊的狼狈为奸」\n建筑公司承接自己楼盘，伪造工程进度/虚假关联交易，都是自家人，按流程套取工程款\n监管渎职，违规发放监管资金：开发商表衷心，提起拿钱去盖更多楼，拉动小芬，自然有人愿意放行\n\n提前取钱对多方都是有益的，除了业主。\n房贷、养老、生育三角困局\n房贷本质是以未来现金流为抵押，获取的长期融资工具，在普通家庭机缘下，这是唯一一种创造负债的同时创造家庭核心资产的工具。根据发展阶段，其可以是优质杠杆，也可以是伪装成资产的负债。\n在首付和月供能力约束下，央行的标准是不超过收入的 50%，那么月入过万的负债上限也就 100w（总价 150w 的房子，首付接近 50w）。而现实默认是父母资助或双方共同，一二线超 60%首付资金依赖于父母的资助，没有家庭资助的应届毕业生在城市收入水平线，要存 10 年，才够首付。\n这种结构性矛盾就衍生多个社会效应\n\n代际财富的畸形分配（社科院调研1/3的养老金都是用来资助子女购房，这还是在40%的群体缺乏可持续收入的养老金的前提下），\n家庭夫妻双方 60%的收入用来月供和养孩子，若加上反哺养老，则要超过 60%。\n这些压力转移到现代适婚人群，就是延迟生育，被迫的人口结构转型。从十几20 年前的20 岁出头，到现在的接近30 岁，农村都延迟了何况城镇。\n\n老龄化加速和生育延迟叠加会形成更大的财富断层和阶级断层，普通居民杠杆 60%无限接近发达国家，但社会保障支出远远跟不上。国内家庭资产又有 70%集中于房产，在房价或经济波动周期里表现出极其脆弱性，这是当下的最本质问题。\n买房、育儿、养老导致高杠杆，高杠杆导致高负债，高负债导致延迟结婚生育，新生儿持续降低，老龄化加速。当代年轻人和当下经济核心目的就是债务出清和资产负债修复，在拉扯中尽力平衡，要理性的是房价与居民杠杆率存在负相关关系，房价下降 10%，实际负债将被动上升 11%左右，这种金融和民生保障的复杂博弈，决定了政策工具箱必然优先选择稳资产，也就是先救市，而不是放任市场自由活动。\n市场其实已经救过来了，只是缩小到个人身上感觉是没救过来。因为对个人而言，100w 还剩 20 才叫救过来，不愿意付出时间也不愿意让开空间，这是常规心态，凡是有盈利想法的就不要抱怨。\n需求决定下限，长期解决方案还是要回到基础的收入分配改革，还有公共服务均等化，所以有增收，教改，医改等支出型结构调整。这些都是实质性破解房贷，养老，生育三角困局的办法，但这是长期的事情，短期还是用别的水池的水，先解渴，再普惠。各方还是想通过拉动资产价格，用你的债务接别人的债务的方式做到债务出清，途径还是发贷款，降首付也不是图你那 15%的现金。\n一线城市房价状况\n回落至2016至2017\n\n\n\n香港楼市在去年2月宣布全面“撤辣”(取消额外印花税、买家印花税和新住宅印花税等)后，香港楼市迎来一波小反弹，先是中原城市领先指数持续上扬，但后续又开始持续下跌\n从峰值到现在，深圳的二手房价格累计下降了37.3%，涨幅是最高的，同时也最早达到了峰值，跌幅也是最显著的。最新二手房成交均价约为5.9万元/平方米，这一水平大致回到了2016年8月的价格水平，2016年的二手房成交均价大约为5.4万元/平方米，部分月份 6 万元/平方米。如何理解呢，也只能说在四大一线中深圳原来杠杆率最高\n广州的房价从峰值至今已经下跌了26.8%，回到了2017年6月的价格水平，二手房挂牌量也去到了 15w 套的历史高值\n归因于北上两地早些时候实施了更为严格的房地产市场调控政策，提高了投资炒房的门槛，使得市场波动相对平稳。8月初上海二手住宅的平均成交价为57915元/平方米，结合历年的价值，可以得出当前房价价格已回落至2017年水平。北京二手住宅的平均成交价已较23年高点下跌约一万元，部分数据显示已回调至2016年水平，整体跌幅显著，尤其是郊区和老破小房源，跌幅普遍在40%至50%之间\n\n下钻搞钱第一城鹏城（2023）\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#fdd8e1,#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"深圳 04-23 年二手房交易走势\"\n    x-axis \"年份-折线均价w/平米\" [2004, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09,  10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16,  17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23,24H1]\n    y-axis \"量能-柱图过户量w套\" 0 --> 16\n    bar [5.3, 6.6, 8.5, 9.2, 4.3, 15.5,11.3, 6.1, 5.7, 8.8, 5.7, 12.7, 9.6, 6.4,  6.5, 7.7, 9.5, 4.1, 2.2, 3.3]\n    line [0.6, 0.7, 0.9, 1.3, 1.2, 1.4,1.6, 1.5, 1.6, 1.9, 2.3, 3.1, 5, 5.5,  5.9, 6.2, 7, 8, 7.4, 6.5,5.9]\n2023议价空间\n2023 年深圳二手房平均议价空间\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#ff0000,#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"2023年深圳二手房平均议价空间\"\n    x-axis \"月份 议价率=(最后挂牌价-成交价)/最后挂牌价\" [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12]\n    y-axis \"议价比例 %\" 1 --> 11\n    line [8,6.8,6.9,7.1,7.5,9.1,10.5,8.2,8.1,8.8,10.7,10.2]\n\n2021年参考价政策出台第一年，深圳54.5%的房源成交价高于参考价20%以上，只有5%的房源成交价低于参考价。\n2022年，低于参考价成交的占比上涨到19.7%。\n2023年全年，低于参考价成交的占比大幅增长至50.3%。2023H1，低于参考价成交占比仅3成左右，但7月开始大幅度提升，一跃超过6成。Q4起更是超过7成，直至12月底，低于参考价成交占比达到80%，『不低于参考价的房子不看』已经为市场常态\n\n2023H2 指导价vs 实际价偏差\npie title 低于指导价成交的低多少\n\t\"低 0-5%\":25\n\t\"低 5-10%\":23\n\t\"低 10-15%\":21\n\t\"低 15-20%\":14\n\t\"低 20-30%\":12\n\t\"低 30%+\":5\n2023二手房源成交周期\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#ff0000,#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"2023年深圳二手房成交周期\"\n    x-axis \"年份\" [2019,2020,2021,2022,2023]\n    y-axis \"成交周期（天）\" 30 --> 200\n    line [136,113,108,153,178]\n\n\n2023年深圳二手房成交周期平均为178天，比2022年拉长了近1个月的时间。\n\n\n近5年里成交周期最短是2021年的108天，大概3个半月。3年时间，深圳二手房成交周期已经近乎翻倍。业主出售需要更大的耐心。\n\n\n不完全是“越大越难卖”。2023年改善客群积极入市，90-144㎡的二手房成交周期反而是最短的，为166天。低于60㎡的小户型成交周期并不低，达到172天。144㎡以上的豪宅总价高，目标客群主要是小范围的高净值人群，成交周期自然较长，超过210天。\n\n\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#fdd8e1\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"2023深圳不同面积二手房去化周期\"\n    x-axis \"面积段\" [\"(0,60]\",\"(60-90]\",\"(90-144]\",\"144+\"]\n    y-axis \"成交周期（天）\" 160 --> 220\n    bar [172,169,166,211]\n成交片区与客户年龄\n2023年二手房过户量排名前三的片区依然是三大“老演员”：龙岗中心城、布吉和西乡，前三名连续3年未变。但去年各片区成交量同比有了明显上涨。龙岗中心城上涨39%，布吉上涨31%，西乡上涨59%，各类片区数据可详见参考链接[1]。\n城市常住人口的平均年龄只有32.5岁，购房者平均年龄36.5岁，购房群体年龄相较 22 年上涨 0.5 岁，有增大趋势。各年龄层上41-50岁群体和21-30岁群体分别相较 22 年出现 2%左右的升降，主力31-40 的几乎无变化，95后00后年轻人更加倾向于先租房，部分群体转向购买人才房也会带来购房年龄增大。\n售租比详细透视\n\n2019年来重点 50 城租售比=单位月租金/单位房价[3]\n\n\n\n\n时间\n租金（元/平米/月）\n房价（元/平米）\n租售比\n\n\n\n\n2019\n33.93\n20219\n1:596\n\n\n2020\n33.83\n20310\n1:600\n\n\n2021\n33.82\n20677\n1:611\n\n\n2022\n33.79\n20665\n1:612\n\n\n2023\n33.68\n20597\n1:611\n\n\n2024 上半年\n33.29\n19640\n1:590\n\n\n\n\n2019年来重点 50 城售租比=房屋总价/房屋年租金\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"重点 50 城售租比\"\n    x-axis [2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024H1]\n    y-axis \"售租比\" 48 --> 53\n    bar [49.7, 50, 51, 51, 52.1, 49.2]\n    line [49.7, 50, 51, 51, 52.1, 49.2]\n高售租比城市集中在长、珠三角经济圈。\n\n厦门位居售租比榜首，靠出租收回成本需 76 年，东莞达 71.6 年，位居第二。宁波，金华，深圳，苏州紧随其后，售租比均在 60 年以上。\n银川、乌鲁木齐、贵阳分列低租售比前三，不到 30 年就可以通过出租收回成本。桂林，哈尔滨，长沙，湛江租售比也较为合理，均在 35 年以下\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"重点 50 城租金回报率\"\n    x-axis [2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024H1]\n    y-axis \"租金回报率 (in %)\" 1.9 --> 2.1\n    bar [2.01, 2, 1.96, 1.96, 1.96, 2.03]\n    line [2.01, 2, 1.96, 1.96, 1.96, 2.03]\n\n租金回报率 2.03%（高过五大行 5 年期定存 1.8%，但与 10 年期国债2.23%比仍无优势），创 2019 年来新高\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"24年投资收益率对比\"\n    x-axis [\"10年期国债\", \"50城房租金\", \"基金平均收益率\", \"5年定存\", \"1年期国债\"]\n    y-axis \"回报率 (in %)\" 1.3 --> 2.3\n    bar [2.23, 2.03, 2, 1.8, 1.47]\n    line [2.23, 2.03, 2, 1.8, 1.47]\n租金回报城市能级负相关\n城市能级越高，租金回报率越低，高租金回报率以弱二线及三四线城市居多。24H1 一线城市租金回报率 1.79%，同比回落0.01%;二线城市回报率1.92%，同比上升0.09%, 三四线为2.46%，同比上升0.12%。\n\n\n\n时间\n一线\n二线\n三四线\n\n\n\n\n2019\n1.89%\n1.96%\n2.41%\n\n\n2020\n1.9%\n1.95%\n2.34%\n\n\n2021\n1.84%\n1.92%\n2.32%\n\n\n2022\n1.91%\n1.9%\n2.32%\n\n\n2023\n1.8%\n1.92%\n2.46%\n\n\n2024H1\n1.79%\n2%\n2.57%\n\n\n\n2024H1租金回报率降序队列\n\n2024H1租金回报率降序排列，厦门租金回报率仅 1.32%，最差高居榜首。银川租金回报率4.58%, Top1，甩第二名乌鲁木齐3.63%近 1 个百分点；\n因各种研究报告的城市范围不一致，也没释出全部清单，所以你看到部分省会城市未列出数据，因为它们也藏在区间内。\n\n\n\n\n名次\n城市\n等级\n经济圈\n租金回报率%\n售租比（年）\n售租比较 23 年变化（年）\n租金收入比%\n租金收入排名（租房痛苦烈度）\n\n\n\n\n1\n厦门\n二线\n海峡\n1.32 %\n75.8\n-3.6\n15.71 %\n44\n\n\n2\n东莞\n二线\n珠三角\n1.4 %\n71.4\n-6.2\n9.9 %\n15\n\n\n3\n宁波\n二线\n长三角\n1.58 %\n63.3\n-4.2\n\n\n\n\n4\n金华\n二线\n长三角\n1.6 %\n62.5\n+3.4\n8.05 %\n1\n\n\n5\n深圳\n一线\n珠三角\n1.61 %\n62.1\n+1.1\n26.95 %\n50\n\n\n6\n苏州\n二线\n长三角\n1.66 %\n60.2\n-2.8\n\n\n\n\n7\n三亚\n三四线\n珠三角\n1.69 %\n59.2\n-4.2\n24.57 %\n48\n\n\n8\n青岛\n二线\n环渤海\n1.74 %\n57.5\n-4.6\n9.68 %\n13\n\n\n9\n福州\n二线\n海峡\n1.77 %\n56.5\n\n\n\n\n\n10\n南京\n二线\n长三角\n1.79 %\n55.9\n\n12.91 %\n\n\n\n11\n泉州\n二线\n海峡\n1.81 %\n55.2\n+1\n9.79 %\n14\n\n\n12\n常州\n二线\n长三角\n1.81 %\n55.2\n\n8.53 %\n5\n\n\n13\n北京\n一线\n环渤海\n1.81 %\n55.2\n+1\n24.52 %\n47\n\n\n14\n温州\n二线\n长三角\n1.86 %\n53.8\n-4.1\n9.56 %\n12\n\n\n15\n杭州\n二线\n长三角\n1.86 %\n53.8\n-5.5\n16.36 %\n45\n\n\n\n上海\n一线\n长三角\n\n\n\n25.28 %\n49\n\n\n\n广州\n一线\n珠三角\n1.89 %\n\n\n16.63 %\n46\n\n\n\n成都\n二线\n西南\n\n\n\n15.21 %\n43\n\n\n\n福州\n二线\n海峡\n\n\n\n14.96 %\n41\n\n\n\n西安\n二线\n西北\n\n\n\n14 %\n38\n\n\n\n天津\n二线\n环渤海\n\n\n\n13.41 %\n36\n\n\n\n烟台\n三四线\n环渤海\n\n\n\n8.13 %\n2\n\n\n\n中山\n二线\n珠三角\n\n\n\n8.23 %\n3\n\n\n\n无锡\n二线\n长三角\n\n\n\n9.26 %\n9\n\n\n\n佛山\n二线\n珠三角\n\n\n\n9.34 %\n10\n\n\n\n惠州\n三四线\n珠三角\n\n\n\n9.34 %\n11\n\n\n\n昆明\n二线\n西南\n\n\n\n10.1 %\n\n\n\n\n武汉\n二线\n中部\n\n\n\n10.76 %\n\n\n\n\n盐城\n三四线\n长三角\n\n\n\n11.03 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n36\n太原\n二线\n环渤海\n2.51 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n37\n威海\n三四线\n环渤海\n2.59 %\n\n\n9.17 %\n8\n\n\n38\n呼和浩特\n三四线\n西北\n2.69 %\n\n\n9 %\n6\n\n\n39\n洛阳\n三四线\n中部\n2.75 %\n\n\n10.36 %\n\n\n\n40\n南宁\n二线\n珠三角\n2.76 %\n\n\n14.35 %\n40\n\n\n41\n大连\n二线\n东北\n2.76 %\n\n\n14.18 %\n39\n\n\n42\n淄博\n三四线\n环渤海\n2.79 %\n\n\n8.5 %\n4\n\n\n43\n沈阳\n二线\n东北\n2.8 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n44\n湛江\n三四线\n珠三角\n2.89 %\n\n\n15.03 %\n42\n\n\n45\n长沙\n二线\n中部\n3.07 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n46\n哈尔滨\n二线\n东北\n3.13 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n47\n桂林\n三四线\n珠三角\n3.29 %\n\n\n9.14 %\n7\n\n\n48\n贵阳\n二线\n西南\n3.44 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n49\n乌鲁木齐\n三四线\n西北\n3.63 %\n\n\n12.29 %\n\n\n\n50\n银川\n三四线\n西北\n4.58 %\n\n\n13.58 %\n37\n\n\n\n对照 2019 年\n\n更多信息和图表，可参见[2]\n\n\n不谈房价谈变化\n央行在二季报里也特地设了一个专栏：支持租房租赁产业可持续发展，给了一些调调和资金支持的吹风。提到租金是影响住房价值的核心变量，租售比是衡量住房价值的简化指标，若静态租售比提升到 3% 「对应于售租比 33 年，租售比1：400」以上，将高于多数资产回报率，租房租赁产业是未来房地产发展的重要方向。\n政策鼓励或不鼓励的事项，或许不会立刻产生效果，但最终必然会带来显著影响。例如曾有一段时期，银保监的郭主席将房地产称作「灰犀牛」，并告诫众人留意房地产投资的风险，一年多以后，房地产的拐点就出现了。证监会在两年多前提出构建『中国特色社会主义估值体系』，许多人不相信 PE低于 10 倍，市净率低于 1 倍的央企未来会迎来一波上涨，而后中石油、工行，中行，长江电力，中国联通的走势验证了者一切。要关注政策趋势，而且要提前进行布局，且还需要一定的耐心。\n1970年以来15个国家的22次房地产危机\n\n\n\n大型房地产泡沫5年期内至少上涨50%，或3年35%随后下跌至少35%\n时间\n小型房地产泡沫5年期间至少上涨35%，或3年20%随后下跌至少20%\n时间\n\n\n\n\n比利时🇧🇪\n1979-Q3\n芬兰🇫🇮\n1982-Q2\n\n\n丹麦🇩🇰\n1986-Q2\n爱尔兰🇮🇪\n2007-Q1\n\n\n丹麦🇩🇰\n2006-Q3\n荷兰🇳🇱\n1978-Q2\n\n\n芬兰🇫🇮\n1974-Q2\n新西兰🇳🇿\n1974-Q3\n\n\n爱尔兰🇮🇪\n1980-Q4\n挪威🇳🇴\n1987-Q1\n\n\n意大利🇮🇹\n1981-Q2\n南非🇿🇦\n1984-Q1\n\n\n日本🇯🇵\n1973-Q4\n西班牙🇪🇸\n2007-Q2\n\n\n日本🇯🇵\n1990-Q4\n英国🇬🇧\n1973-Q3\n\n\n韩国🇰🇷\n1979-Q2\n美国🇺🇸\n2006-Q1\n\n\n韩国🇰🇷\n1991-Q1\n\n\n\n\n西班牙🇪🇸\n1978-Q2\n\n\n\n\n西班牙🇪🇸\n1991-Q4\n\n\n\n\n瑞典🇸🇪\n1990-Q1\n\n\n\n\n\n\n以危机发生当年的实际房价水平为100，泡沫破裂前后房价的走势变化可以分为四个阶段：\n\n危机前10年至前5年，房价较为缓慢上升，5年内总计上涨约7%\n危机前第5年开始到危机爆发前，房价进入快速上涨期，相较于危机前第5年累计上涨了50%\n泡沫破裂后房价进入漫长的下降期，在危机后第6年下降至最低值，较峰值下降30%，刚好大约是危机前5年的水平 （和中国 16~17 年也差不多能对上）\n房价开始缓慢向上修复，但截至第10年，房价水平仍不能回复至危机前的峰值水平，仅为最高值的85%左右\n\n\n\n日本的危机在很多其它方面也与别的样本国家非常不一样，日本的危机是一个虽然烈度并不算太高，但更加漫长的危机（部分跟日本的人口结构有关系，90 年危机后工作年龄人口增长率持续为负）\n房地产投资的走势变化与房价变化基本相同，但要延迟于房价反转一年才反转\n\n从渴盼暴涨到止跌企稳\n房价的修复前提是居民负债表得到修复，自发性修复非常缓慢，天量烂尾楼尚未解决，公信力已经打了折扣。00 后及更后面的新时代群，购房动机比较低（24 年 9 月16~24岁全国城镇不含在校学生失业率17.6%，实际更高，或许这批锚定公租房）。当前最尴尬的是 85-95 人群，这代人在房地产带来的负债被修复前显得无力积极参与整个消费市场，而这批人反而是目前社会上生产力最高，消费也本应是最高的人，这场债务危机加大了年轻世代衡量购房必要性的疑虑，又进一步加大了人口断代的长期危机，在人口大趋势（年净新增1000w 退休）下今年火急火燎上马了延迟退休。\n参考其他国家房地产模式，美日西方房地产泡沫出清节奏，长期的下跌通道是大概率结果，只有美国走出了V字反转，这是在唯一的超级大国的背景下虹吸全球做到的，从人口趋势上中日太像「同恰逢劳动人口拐点」，中国甚至未富先老，但从产业和政治独立性上大不一样，所以这是一场探索式的行军，没有复刻模板可以借鉴，不可悲观也不应盲目自信「灰犀牛一个也没躲过去」。\n\n\n上图也有其险恶用心，只以时间长度来推算描述，不看下跌深度和速率。按本文前面的分析，中国一线城市房价已经下探了接近25 ~ 30%，类比美国的下探幅度28%，日本的下探幅度45%，中国已经接近美国的修复幅度(当然中国的泡沫是大过美国的，美国的都只能算是一个小型地产泡沫），不是说 30%就代表实际 OK了，而是政府干预金融风险，不允许继续下探修复，很多小国都是下探幅度过 40%，如日韩西班牙。\n\n\n\n从这张图上二手房是理应更亮起始点更高的那条线，也反映出当年一二手的倒挂趋势，现在尚未普遍修正到 20%的区间，一线城市已领先修正到75%分位，国家在急忙出来喊话喊底\n\n中国长期人口结构很不乐观（23 年15~59 岁劳动力净减少 1000 万，不过这 1000万退休不是购房人群），这个锚点永远无法绕过，所以房地产即使进入止跌企稳，后面仍有数年的横盘，直到新一波年轻人口入市（租售比修复），或城市旧基建翻新（新房去库存周期低于 14 个月），才有明显上涨（将在改善房和优质房中复苏）；还有一种情况是天量货币流入市场（大通胀），可以冲销债务，但以货币购买力层面来说，货币大幅贬值会导致更多人变穷，哪怕是这种下下策，大量三线以下城市也回不到高点，因为人口和政策都会流向大城市群和枢纽城市。房地产税和维修基金的落地是楼市在货币购买力和纸面金额见底的必然因素，当从市场扩张走向市场维护，必然需要可持续税源，房地产那么好的税源不可能不收。待到房地产税落地后，家庭收入稳健到f时可重点考虑购入一二线城市，除此外买房都将注定是消费而非投资。\n好房子写入政府工作报告\n我国所有的政策都是围绕着卖，而不是围绕着住。除了降价外的招都愿意出。如何让有房子的人心甘情愿地换新房，总要找个合适的理由。而老房二手房既然已经被老实人接盘，还能让你跑了不成？\n开发商可以影响政策，而真正住房子的业主却不行。开发商说在阳台偷面积种树是好房子，政策就配合开发商做噱头，鼓励在阳台盖违建；开发商说中央新风恒温恒湿是好房子（实际在中国这个季风气候国家，层高调高后知冷知热效果都会变差，会增大使用成本，新房只能面向对增加成本感知较弱的人群），政策就配合加高层高；开发商在公摊面积上做文章，政策就配合改公摊面积，政策总是跟着开发商胃口前后脚走，总是为了售楼小姐话术服务。\n新房企稳跟存量二手房的关系已经没那么大了，一般的二手房在陪老实人变老途中慢慢贬值。\n好房子/豪宅可否成为救世主？\n高端楼盘维护成本跟豪车一样，是逐年上升的，例如维持会所运营要额外的付出。房子的真实成本=初始售价+维护成本，有不少提前折现的产品，而多数购房者并未真正具备持续支付能力。2024 年 140m2 以上户型库存去化周期达 28 个月，是 90m2 以下户型的 3.1 倍。原因也简单，家庭规模持续缩小，2025 年平均每户 2.4 人，较 2010 年减少 0.7 人。从功能调研显示，独立衣帽间的实际使用率仅 19%，对可变空间的需求增至 68%。当时间走到 2025 年，25-35 购房群体变成了如下考量公式：\n$住房价值=0.4通勤效率+0.3社区活力+0.2改造弹性+0.1身份象征$\n\n而 60、70 后的群体公式中身份象征权重达 0.45\n\n年轻人更倾向轻资产模式，48%选择买 老破小+重金改造，而非直接购买精装新房，37%接受 核心区小户型+近郊第二居所的组合方案，甚至 15%开始尝试 购房+REITs 投资对冲持有成本。新一代用消费电子品逻辑看待住房，不追求永恒占有，而是持续迭代，计划每 5-8 年通过置换升级居住体验。住房从资本品回归耐用消费品，定价权从金融属性转向使用价值，市场生态分化：有钱人不差钱住豪宅，普通人老老实实计算成本和性价比，不为明天的泡沫支付今天的溢价。\n参考\n1.深圳房地产信息网 2023年深圳楼市年报—乐有家研究中心 ↩2.每经网 2019只靠房租，房东多少年能回本 ↩3.腾讯网 租房更划算了吗 ↩4.网易 美日是如何走出房地产危机的 ↩5.金融四十人论坛 跨国比较：泡沫破裂后的房地产市场 ↩6.经济50人论坛 2024年二季度宏观杠杆率 ↩7.格隆汇 如何看待中国房地产的调整 ↩8.格隆汇 中金：别人的“后地产”时代 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["房产"]},{"title":"和田玉的下沉演变","url":"/%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98.html","content":"\n以前有种说法讲东方审美重『韵』与『质』，西方重『色』与『火』，在资本与品牌推广方面，东方相较弱势点。今天看到一篇侧面解读，是否客观需要琢磨求证。但不失为一种视角补充。\n和田玉的成分\n和田玉的主要成分是透闪石，一块矿石若超过 90%都是透闪石（透闪石是含水的钙铁镁质硅酸盐），就可以称为软玉。如果一块软玉里透闪石恰好按纤维交织的状态排列，看起来温润，反光柔和，就可以称为和田玉。所以和田玉的本质只是特定结构的透闪石。\n中国古人为何会喜欢和田玉？\n人类天生喜欢漂亮的石头，甲骨文的玉字就是穿起来的石片形状。钻石和彩色宝石这些硬质矿物需要长期处在高压低温环境才能形成，比如说钻石一旦温度超过 1400 度就会石墨化，矿石成型后，又需要快速喷发的岩浆把矿石运到地表，速度太慢的话矿物质就会被高温降解。\n地理的限制\n现在世界上绝大多数硬质宝石都集中在克拉通地形的古大陆，主要是南非、印度这些地方。中国虽也有克拉通地形，但主要集中在东北和胶东地区。中国古代封建王朝主要活动在中国的泛滥平原，东部的沉积盆地，这些区域产生不了硬质的宝石，古代中国人就接触不到。虽没有其它的宝石，但中国人接触到相对软的玉石，今天的中国是欧亚板块，印度板块，太平洋板块碰撞形成的，有全世界最宽的复合造山带，这种地理构造让岩层出现很多裂缝，方便岩浆带着矿物质侵入，形成玉石矿。中国各种原始部落活动区域，都可以产出玉，如新疆产和田玉，河南产独山玉，内蒙产鸡血石，陕西产蓝田玉。很长一段时间里，中国人能接触到的漂亮石头只有玉，所以特权阶层就开始垄断玉石，证明自己和普通人不同。和田玉质地更加细腻，也更容易加工，地位相较其它国内玉石就要高一些。\n\n玉石的下放\n在原始社会，玉是通神之物，一般被打造成祭器，只有部落首领可以使用，跟神进行沟通，说文解字解释灵这个字时也说：巫以玉事神。这个时候玉的作用可称为神玉，巅峰是商朝。\n商王武丁曾花了三年时间对西北一个叫鬼方的部落发动战争，可能目的之一就是抢夺和田玉，形成中原王朝和新疆最早的贸易通道，和田玉也有了稳定的供应，开始从神权降格到王权，也被称王玉。妇好墓里就有 755 件玉器，基本都是和田玉。到了周朝，和田玉的产量进一步提高，玉的重要性开始下降，从王室用品变成了贵族用品，按照不同规格用玉器标识身份。\n到了秦汉时期，贵族阶层消亡不少，丝绸之路成型，和田玉的重要性进一步下降，西域都护府设立之后，于阗国每年要给汉朝输送十万斤和田玉，从此后，除了羊脂白玉仅限皇室使用外，其它和田玉被加工成配饰，挂件，酒杯甚至镇纸，这时和礼器的关系就不大了。\n到魏晋南北朝，儒家不流行了，玉的神圣性进一步削弱，墓葬里玉制的礼器不到 8%（汉朝时还是 50%），将近 80%还是日常挂件，这时候玉还开发出了食品功能，等到唐宋时期，跟新疆的商路更加稳定，玉就彻底世俗化了，普通人开始用上和田玉，陕西山东都形成了玉雕产业带，城市里也出现了卖玉小店铺。虽然地位在下降，玉石的加工水平反而快速上升，透雕圆雕工艺就出现在这个时候。\n翡翠的冲击\n到了清朝，和田玉的地位遭到毁灭性打击，因为中国不产硬质宝石，历代统治者才推崇和田玉。乾隆 36 年开始，缅甸的翡翠大量进入中国，翡翠的颜色更加鲜艳，质地也更硬，很快收到统治者认同，慈禧直接把翡翠定为皇家玉，带头用上翡翠饰品。\n在乾隆初年，翡翠的价格只有和田玉1/10，到了晚晴，价格已经超出和田玉近 10 倍，一开始大家没有把翡翠当成玉，过了 五六十年，就比和田玉贵多了。苏州本来是清朝的玉雕中心，到了道光年间，70%的店铺都转行开始加工翡翠首饰，从此以后翡翠基本占领了首饰市场，和田玉只能加工笔筒镇纸供文人使用，这些文人显然不是有多爱和田玉，只是翡翠的价格太高。直到今天，翡翠还是中国的玉石之王。翡翠有什么高级特性？无非更好地迎合特权阶级为了区别其它人群的需求。\n现在对和田玉的炒作喜欢附加各种玄学属性，清朝已经证明，皇帝一旦接触到翡翠，马上就抛弃了和田玉，如果古代中国能和南非保持稳定的贸易，钻石和其他宝石估计早就能打败玉石了。今天的和田玉有大规模的市场，原因不是稀缺，也不是古代流传的文化价值，唯一可靠的只是装饰价值，作为漂亮石头来出售，用化学分析的方式去定义质量（如国标里的颜色，彩度，明度），跟产地无关，和历史也没有关系，市场才能透明，才能得到普通消费者的长期认同。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史","文化"]},{"title":"哪吒与雄狮少年","url":"/%E5%93%AA%E5%90%92%E4%B8%8E%E9%9B%84%E7%8B%AE%E5%B0%91%E5%B9%B4.html","content":"\n初看代入哪吒，我命由我不由天。再看代入小镇做题家申公豹（离十二金仙一步之遥），再看是土拨鼠，终日为那碗饭奔波。最后一合计，自己最多是一个没有什么法术战斗力接近于 0 的陈塘关百姓。\n年龄上来后，大家慢慢会有中感觉，开始意识到自己的渺小，很难再代入那些有超能力，buff 叠满的主角们，反而开始共情那些弱小的，因为在潜意识里意识到了，如果真有什么事情发生，自己可能是弱小的一方。主角感的遗失就是年龄增长的一个结果。\n魔童设定的百姓视角\n俩官二代祸害老百姓捅了娄子再造反，神仙打架百姓遭殃。这便是里面普通人的感受。\n在电影构造的氛围渲染下，小孩或许以为自己是哪吒，我命由我不由天。但作为父母的你是龙王还是陈塘关总司令？若你只能是陈塘关的百姓，则是另一番际遇，连个妖精都不如（好歹妖精还有炼丹的价值）。\n在魔童宇宙，一群禽兽甚至植物都在努力装做人，道行越高装的越像，装的越像地位越高，但千万别是人，是人台词没有，被官二代横行乡里折磨的不敢出门，被西海龙王碳化，从头欺负到尾，在 2 中喊疼的机会都没有，灰飞烟灭，屁都不剩。\n\n魔童系列里的主要人物除了李靖和李夫人以外都是变态暴徒，包括太乙真人。哪吒和母亲的母子情大家看得到，所有的类型片为了区分黑老大和坏黑老大通常都是用他们是不是顾家孝顺来区分，毕竟两边都是欺负老百姓毫无心理负担，哪吒全片除了李靖找不到对普通百姓有责任感的角色了。\n李靖在影片结尾经过龙王一句：“你们都是被骗的！”，好像已经原谅那些屠戮陈塘关的虾兵蟹将，但不代表李靖原谅你就要原谅，南京大屠杀能原谅吗？\n饺子导演用一种戏谑的手法解构了神仙妖怪的残忍，让普通观众看这些的时候不会有太大的道德心理负担，沉浸享受整部电影，不这样表达，没法推动这些正反横跳的角色们了。漫画类电影特点就是把所有能打的放一个竞技场里乱炖，漫威和火影亦是这个路数，只不过在人物底色处理上，魔童2导演更加冷酷决绝。\n你可以外延导演他讽刺现实，但饺子也不敢也不会承认，那么人物动机就不是惩恶扬善追求是非公道，就是图个痛快！是迎合观众的爽剧设定。大家去电影院看的就是一个超脱，不想看另一个自己.天天心想：老子受不了这口鸟气。但你要问呢，就是为朋友，为帮派，为天下，这样格外吸引现实中被生活折磨窝囊到没边的观众们。\n厌恶角色设定不代表厌恶作品本身，画面效果大卖实至名归，只能说多喜爱谈不上。大概率魔童3，导演会安排一个时光倒流大复活。有些事真的回不去了，但童话可以。\n对比1979哪吒闹海\n我们的神话改编相较以往出了问题，传统哪吒闹海的一个高潮部分是李靖和哪吒在百姓和儿子间做出道德选择，是一种舍己为苍生，忠孝难两全的道德陷阱，强调的是苍生，强调的是普通老百姓的生命价值，非常高级。在那个年代，普通人的命是可以换一个军区司令儿子一条命的，龙王要的也是一个说法，一个公道。\n大卖的新国漫中，普通人什么都不是，毫无价值。故事的主角可能是人，但目的是升级提高，成佛成仙，成功的标准就是不成人，练级把自己的级别提高，拳头越大说话越好使，整个世界观都在强调出身，背景，师承关系，血统。什么个人努力，历史进程都关系不大。\n雄狮少年：普通人的拼搏故事\n雄狮中的阿娟就是我们普罗大众中的一员，他在逆境的野蛮成长，面临生活中的一座座大山，正是普通人时刻面对的周遭，更值得借鉴，更直戳人心。\n它不是那种“我生来就强大，你别看不起我，总有一天我会打败你”的爽片，天才叙事看起来爽但现实中实在太少见了；它是那种“我是一点都不强大的小草，你可以欺负我看不起我，但我依然坚韧活着”，这是属于千万普通人的拼搏故事，是无数努力改命的小镇青年能共情的故事。\n影片并未俗套地赋予阿娟一个格斗之夜总冠军的高光，更多是让我们看到无论胜负，始终坚守初心，真诚、善良又坚韧的阿娟。\n动画电影就不要看它的剧情了，只要画面够好就行，也是一种观点。视觉上的冲击带来的快感相对短暂，出了电影院不久就消散了，但是有深度的故事，会一直激励人心。本人看魔童 2 最触动的还是天元鼎中的李夫人，毕竟同为人父母。\n票房败北\n雄狮最被人诟病的是迎合西方种族化审美的的东方眯眯眼，这点上从主角形象设定上确实有问题，尤其是瞳距。往正面上说上天是主创团队用一个自以为雅的审美来打动观众，那是白瞎了，观众不会有代入感，没有人想长成几位主角的样子，掏钱包的人自然就少了，顺带白瞎了一部精细的国漫作品。\n创作对比\n画面水准\n每一个重磅国产动画IP，在制作和技术层面，都会下足功夫做出创新突破，从而惠及后来的创作者和整个动画产业。\n哪吒 2 比哪吒 1 优秀很多，实至名归，超燃的场景，酷炫的粒子特效。但雄狮少年2 让人惊艳的是招式扎实，现场感十足，从分镜到最终画面精细的让人咋舌，为了再现自然的动态肌肉感，主创用一年时间自主研发升级肌肉特效系统，细致还原了人体每一块肌肉、筋膜和皮肤的动态。连街景都努力还原，这也非常不容易。\n\n\n情绪宣泄\n\n印度电影爱跳舞，美国电影爱炸自由女神，不代表对错，就是观众爱看。「故事共鸣」为观众的首要消费需求\n\n哪吒 2 充斥充斥着炽热的爱、强烈的恨、放纵的笑和催人泪下的“痛”，且这些情绪都有具象的对应物，整部电影的情绪供给可谓“量大管饱”。而这些情绪的主要根源是反派无量仙翁。他道貌岸然，虚伪残忍，屠戮无辜，他越强大，就越可恨，越残忍，就越可杀，越能让观众沉浸其中。\n雄狮少年2的反派却过于疲软，一个是傲慢跋扈、比赛作弊的拳手，一个是抢走练武场、网络抹黑主角的资本力量，他们不杀人放火、不巧取豪夺，也没对主角造成实质性伤害。他们的代名词只是冰冷的生活本身，是贫富的压力、世道的艰险与人生的困顿。他们是抽象的、模糊的、复杂的，无法像无量仙翁那样，成为一个明确的靶子，供观众的情绪枪口一致朝前。\n当哪吒声嘶力竭地喊出“我活不活无所谓，我只要你死”时，阿娟打出的口号却是“战胜偏见和自己”。在当下的电影市场语境里，没有人想要战胜自己，我们只想战胜敌人。\nIP 鸿沟\nIP与IP之间，也有某种“鸿沟”，而这种“鸿沟”，或许从起点就影响了作品的命运。\n以《哪吒2》和《雄狮少年2》来说，前者有原生IP“哪吒”这一超人气神话英雄为其背书，选择耳熟能详的历史或神话人物，进行故事新编，是一种相对稳妥的策略。后者则没有，近乎纯粹的原创，另外受众还需考虑年轻甚至儿童观影群体\n再者，《哪吒2》与《雄狮少年2》还有一个题材方面的IP“鸿沟”：一个是奇幻神话，一个是社会现实。书写当下社会现实的动画，鲜有商业上大卖的例子。动画从诞生之初便与幻想、夸张、变形等艺术语言紧密相连。传统认知中，动画常被视为“造梦工具”，观众更期待通过动画逃离现实。如果要剖析现实，我为什么不看一部真人出演的电影呢？\n现实主义动画在直面社会问题时难免会引发争议，而神话传说题材因文化安全性和普适性更易被接受。\n市场惯性、创作难度与受众认知的多重夹击，造成了诸如《雄狮少年》此类现实主义动画的市场困境。\n艺术探索 vs 大众市场\n如上两点在掀起国漫复兴的序幕《大圣归来》导演田晓鹏的新作品《深海》上体现的也非常明显，一个大赚一个赔钱。\n\n\n\n维度\n大圣归来\n深海\n头脑特工队 2\n\n\n\n\n题材受众\n经典 IP 改编\n原创故事+抑郁症心理议题（小众）\n对人的意识情绪，进行动画处理\n\n\n叙事风格\n线性英雄成长（易懂热血）\n意识流+梦境隐喻（需深度解读）\n\n\n\n情感基调\n光明向的自我救赎\n压抑的创伤疗愈预告片强化奇幻冒险吸引合家欢观众与内容错配\n\n\n\n情绪宣泄\n妖王炼化童男童女，几次伤及江流儿性命，是必欲除之而后快的大恶之人\n敏感抑郁的小女孩的梦境，几乎没有奸恶的反派和具象的情绪供给\n癫狂的反派&quot;焦虑&quot;，从形象设定到故事浅显度，都比深海梦境式的漫游历险，更为具象更为让观众代入。\n\n\n\n莫要在商业片里灌些文艺片的内核。90%的人玩艺术，就是要证明自己不是一般人。因为要证明自己不是一般人，艺术就必须像皇帝的新衣一样，让普通人看不到，看不懂，这是一种浅入深出 / 深入深出的不高明方式，算不得「大家」。别人质疑，就回怼：你不懂艺术，可多数并不能经受住时间的考验。但我相信雄狮（抛开眼距眼型设计）称得上原创动画的精品之作，就如电影结尾段台词中提及的「让时间去证明一切吧」。\n引用参考\n1.搜狐 8000万与90亿，雄狮少年与哪吒的命运为何这般天壤之别 ↩","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["影视"]},{"title":"哲学与哲理","url":"/%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%8E%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86.html","content":"\n哲学\n三大要素\n\n存在（本质）\n认知（本源）\n价值（本意）\n\n对此三大基本问题的探讨是人类智慧和思考的结果，涉及到人类思考和理解世界的方式，并探究生命的意义和目的。\n\n唯心派的三个哲学问题\n\n\n我是谁？\n\n\n我从哪里来？\n\n\n我要到哪里去\n\n\n\n贫僧唐三藏，从东土大唐而来，去往西天拜佛取经\n\n唯物的三个哲学问题\n\n\n如何更好的认识宇宙世界、并解决关于宇宙的问题。\n\n\n如何更好的认识人类社会、并解决关于人类的问题。\n\n\n如何更好的认识自我人生、并解决关于人生的问题。\n\n\n复杂又简单\n托尔斯泰写过一则小寓言，说有一个国王每天都在思考三个最最终极的哲学问题： 在这个世界上：\n\n\n什么人最重要？\n\n\n什么事最重要？\n\n\n什么时间做事最重要？\n\n\n举朝大臣，没人能够回答得出来。后被一个老农解答：\n\n\n最重要的人：就是眼下需要你帮助的人\n\n\n最重要的事：就是马上去做\n\n\n最重要的时间：就是当下，一点不能拖延\n\n\n哲理与哲学的区别\n二者有本质上的区别。哲学是关于思维规律的研究，而哲理是研究处事学问。\n\n一般来说，哲学是有系统，知行合一的。\n哲理，狭义上只是哲学体系内的定理或推论。把道理走出来，某个哲理可能会上升为你的人生哲学。\n\n哲学的目的\n从 20 世纪兴起的语言分析哲学，开启对传统形而上学的终结，摒弃传统哲学总想建造一座大厦，用理论体系解释一切的构想。认为哲学的核心功能是解构困境，而不是提供终极答案的学科。\n从路德维希-维特根斯坦的角度，哲学的目的是给困在玻璃瓶中的是苍蝇指出一条飞出的路。哲学应该是清理场地，就像擦玻璃一样，擦掉语言和思维上的污渍，比如概念的混淆和误用，让我们看清问题本身。\n很多人的困扰，常不是来源于现实，而是来自于语言和思维方式，例如觉得自己工作没价值，人生没意义，无法找到真正的自我等。但同时很多人并不知道，什么是价值，意义、自我，这些概念是高度抽象的。\n我们产生了真实的困扰，不是这些困扰真实存在，而是我们困在了自己的语言和思维里。就像苍蝇并不是没有飞翔的能力，只是被困在了玻璃瓶中，看得见光亮，以为有出路，反复撞向**玻璃瓶（认知困境）**却找不到真正的出口，最后在无效的挣扎中陷入迷茫和痛苦，这是很多人的人生状态。\n日常有人反复纠结&quot;我必须完美&quot;才能被爱，反复因为不够完美而痛苦，这不是&quot;不完美&quot;本身的问题。人类的很多痛苦和困惑不是来自世界的复杂，而是我们用错误的方式去理解世界。\n就像有人因『人生的意义是什么』而焦虑，哲学不会说『人生的意义是 xxx』，而是会问：你是否把『意义』当成一个必须找到的『实体』，就像找一把丢失的钥匙。如果意义本就是自己赋予的，那么你纠结的是『必须找到一个别人认可的意义』，这才是你的『瓶子』。\n语言分析哲学的总结\n哲学不是直接给我们『如何生活』，『世界是什么』的标准和终极答案，而是帮我们看清『困住我们的瓶子』是什么，让我们有机会停下无效挣扎，找到跳出框架的可能。\n哪怕哲学的世界本质问题、当你用错误的语言逻辑、僵化的概念去追问时，才会导致问题无解，而不是问题本身无解。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"唯品会的生存之门","url":"/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html","content":"\n从「中国最大名牌折扣网」到「一家专门做特卖的网站」\n线下品牌商对未来的款式及库存的预估是很粗放的，导致唯品会的模式对它们有巨大的价值\n当大家在讨论唯品会变数时，同事非常快速的发出精准专业化的表述，点中了要害，不由得佩服。\n当在大数据分析基础上&amp;创新性的CMS系统出现，或许才能一改当前线下粗放的特征。但 CMS和大数据，都不捏在品牌商手里，品牌商从来不是建设IT系统的精兵，却是渠道及门店的强将。\n自己一直在锻炼技术领域的专业透视能力及表达技巧，对业务的分析表述的确很差火候，但二者有相同之处，优秀的跨界，也是互联网时代的魅力。正向来看，自己有很大的成长空间，不错。\nPS：个人不看好唯品会的长期发展，没有绝对的杀手锏门槛，在AJ两家电商巨头转身来大力搞这个时，特别是J，唯品会的神话或许几年后就成为追忆。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["IT","行业"]},{"title":"回望2020","url":"/%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B2020.html","content":"\n魔幻的2020\n2020在近代史上定有一笔，全球肺炎疫情，地球村给干成了不相往来。从2019年底先在武汉流行，西方一顿喷，到中国动用集权政府的强大组织能力，生生给压了下去，成为首个从肺炎流行中脱离迈入常态化的国家。\n作为地球上的寄生虫的人类，这场病毒要么是地球用来自我清理的，要么是人为制造生物攻击却失控的，总之，口罩是带了一年，很多人也美了一年。随着北半球冬季的来临，有继续加重和重流行的可能，希望各位国人都能过个平安喜乐的春节。\n这一年中上演了各种美好与丑恶，有代际冲突，有全国一心，有传媒控制，有叛国出卖，有人发国难财，有人赔的底掉，年初没有货发，年终货发不出去（集装箱大排队）。直播带货成为风口，年底又干出了社区团购，却给官方戴上紧箍咒，说资本无序创新，却不看星辰大海。\n\n疫情伊始，远程办公，对于各家公司的IT基础设施大为挑战，对管理能力也大为挑战。环比中验出了互联网的组织能力还是更高，企业文化也更胜一筹（对雇员来说）。无聊经济和电子商务，都在今年赚的盆满钵满。疫情封锁刚刚告一段落，有人就思考了工作的意义，选择与旧岗位告别，更多人是选择规避风险敞口，再走走看。今年对多数公司是艰难的一年，对多数打工人同样也是。\n川建国经济干的漂亮，可没控制好疫情，连任无望，但一年中让中国感受到了科技卡脖子的力量，荣耀从华为中拆分，我看凶多吉少，时代浪潮就那么残酷，大厂的人别以为在什么平台都是一等一的好手。\n又进入风象元素时代\n\n国内的离火九运即将开始于2024年，也是宣称将开启与旧时代趋势的一些告别，新趋势风潮和这个风象时代描述近似\n\n从星象学上来说，土木合相从1980年应该就进入了风元素时代了，只是2000~2020又在土元素时代（金牛座）游了一波，这20年里文化比较废，不似人才辈出的1980年代。20年末，土木合相又进入水瓶座的区间，不回头的迈入到风元素周期，大概要延续到2159年。\n土元素时代重资源物质，风元素时代重信息沟通。暗合计算机产业，互联网产业的爆发，也暗合金融创新，时代使然，今后的20年互联网科技肯定继续突进。\n\n\n土：工业运营，物资，资源\n\n\n风：信息，传播，思想，沟通\n\n\n从细分上来说，前10年受木星影响\n\n1920年的咆哮风格，1940年的帝国扩张及跨越边界，1960年的享乐主义，1980年的雅皮士\n\n后10年，土星的衰退，修整和计划又重新占据主导。在2020-2030这十年间，继续绚烂的疯狂，是大概率事件\n历史上的元素周期时代\n\n上一次土木合相水瓶还在1226，与2020的这次，都带来一些&quot;不好&quot;的事件\n\ntimeline\n    title 元素时代周期(一)\n    section 奴隶封建社会\n        BC1017 ~ BC779【水】 : 空\n        BC779 ~ BC580【火】 : -770 春秋开始\n        BC580 ~ BC402【土】 : -475 战国开始\n        : -403 三家分晋\n        BC402 ~ BC223【风】 : -359商鞅变法 \n    section 华夏第一帝国\n    \t\tBC223 ~ AD15【水】 : -221秦一统\n        : -140 汉武登基\n         : 8 王莽新朝\n        15 ~ 214【火】 : 25 东汉伊始\n        : 105 造纸\n         : 121 说文解字\n         : 184 黄巾之乱\n         : 164-190 瓷器发明\n        214 ~ 392【土】 : 214 刘备入益州\n        : 220 魏代汉\n        : 221 刘备称帝\n        : 280 三分归晋\n        : 291 八王之乱\n        : 317 东晋立/十六国\n        : 383 淝水之战\n        392 ~ 571【风】 : 420 东晋亡，南北朝（宋齐梁陈）\ntimeline\n    title 元素时代周期(二)\n    section 华夏第二帝国\n    \t571 ~ 809【水】: 隋唐盛世\n        : 577 北周灭北齐 \n        : 626 玄武门之变\n        : 630 唐太宗天可汗\n        : 755 安史之乱\n        : 806 唐宪宗即位，元和中兴\n        809 ~ 1008【火】: 黄巢之乱\n        : 五代十国\n        : 960 宋建立\n        : 1004 檀渊之盟\n        1008 ~ 1186【土】: 活字印刷\n        1186 ~ 1365【风】: 1127 靖康耻，南宋立\n        : 1226 **土木合相水瓶**,蒙古崛起\n        : 1279 南宋灭\n        : 1337 英法百年战争开始\n     section 大航海时代\n     \t1365 ~ 1603【水-238年】: 文艺复兴\n     \t: 大航海\n     \t: 1405 郑和下西洋\n     \t: 1421 明迁都北京\n     \t: 1425 土木合相天蝎\n     \t: 1572 张居正改革\n     \t: 1588 西班牙无敌舰队惨败\n     \t: 1598 法国宗教战争结束\n     \t: 1600 东印度公司成立\n     \t: 1603 伊丽莎白1世去世，斯图亚特王朝开始，苏格兰/英格兰共戴一君\n     \t1603 ~ 1802【火-199年】: 殖民地\n     \t: 万有引力\n     \t: 1799 乾隆驾崩\n     \tsection 近现代\n     \t1802 ~ 1980【土-178年】: 1804 拿破仑称帝\n     \t: 各种独立战争，革命\n     \t: 科技爆发\n     \t1980 ~ 2159【风-179年】: 互联网\n     \t: 2020 **土木合于水瓶**，新冠\n     \t: 2000-2020 在土象金牛，文化比较颓\n近几年\n2018\n年在变动之际，去了几个网红城市，厦门，西南二城，成都重庆。厦门有南方特色，温润舒服，重庆更魔幻，成都如饮茶，平淡宜居。\n2019\n2019 4月去北京参加Qcon会，记错飞机时间差点赶不上，会议结束之际，去了天津一睹风采，夜晚商业民俗一条街早早关门，颇感失望，但天津真是一个气候文化和北京迥异的地方。\n5月底去青海甘肃来了一圈，领略了西北风光，卸去了高节奏的枷锁，西部是片可以让人放空，离心灵更近的天地。\n国庆假期带刚上幼儿园的男仔上了南岳衡山，是一份深刻的记忆，我对拥有这么一个男娃感到欣慰，除了扛他上山，今后还有长路在肩，如何引导和呵护他的发展，他的下限不会差，但上限能去到哪，一生能否快快乐乐，虽有平常心，亦任重道远。\n冬季随家人闪现网红城市，西安，就住在鼓楼商业区附近的特色小旅馆里，没那么多时间去逛博物馆标杆历史景点啊，选择去了交通成本不太高的大唐芙蓉园，陪着家人同行，不那么累，是一种莫大的幸福吧\n2020\n这个疫情年，除了驾车回老家，未远行，走走亲友大家也都是无惧病毒风险。2020个人与以往突破最多的是，对于非技术领域的阅读和领略。看书不算少，尤其是传记类的原来不愿碰的，都啃完了，受益匪浅，遗憾没早些年听技术总监的话去读传记，但我能技术持续深入掌握精髓，也离不开那时的那股愣头劲吧。看书且更愿意做下笔记。对于讲一个概念更能形象化的给出类比。对于组织的培训，有更客观的看待与珍惜，且会更留意教师的授课技巧和风格，体悟体系化的知识对于经验的转化率和传承性的作用。应该做培训是今后的一种职业出路。\n2020与来自蚂蚁的前同事侃天说地，了解了蚂蚁风波的核心问题，感叹总理同事多金仍怀揣大梦想。大学同事也有自己出来当老板开干的，我未到时候，甘愿当个干饭打工人，说实在的在资源型社会除了这副皮囊也没有什么拿得出手的核心资源。对于选择大于努力的大原则明确的太晚，落在后面，愿它是一场长跑…\n体重继续慢速攀升，仍有晚睡的差习惯，现在在体重平台期。表哥用自己减重成功的成绩现身说法，刺激了自己对减重的期待（实际还是体检结果在刺激，毛病越来越多），一些无趣的运动，自己是坚持不下来的。实践管住嘴，成为必由之路（读研时期有效果），相信在2021年会有收获。\n新年展望\n2021，体重稳步下降，重在可喜的趋势，这里就不立什么FLAG了\n2021，团队管理工作继续开悟，形成更体系化的知识，更能把一个事情本质浅显的讲明白。AI中台建设成果落地开花，给予团队成员成就感\n2021，更懂理财\n2021，老房子翻新装潢下，愿家庭生活和谐健康\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["时代","日记","周期"]},{"title":"文件-块-对象存储的区别","url":"/%E5%9D%97-%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6-%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8.html","content":"\n开门见山\n\n\n\n对比项\n文件存储NAS\n对象存储\n块存储\n\n\n\n\n共享访问\n多台ECS（千级别上限）同时挂载，并发访问同一个文件系统\n客户端（百万级别上限）向同一个存储空间并发上传下载文件\n单台ECS通过POSIX接口访问\n\n\n操作对象\n文件和文件夹\n依软件系统而定，常见亦是文件\n磁盘\n\n\n协议接口\nPOSIX/NFS/SMB/MPI 注重接口灵活及访问权控制（Lookup/Access/Read/Write/Create/Remove/Rename/MkDir/RmDir/ReadDir等等）\nRESTful/SDK/客户端PUT/GET/DELETE，更注重简洁\n格式化后支持POSIX协议Read/Write/Read Capacity/Inquiry，更注重传输控制\n\n\n读写模式\n随机读写\n顺序读写\n随机读写\n\n\n存储结构\n目录树\n扁平结构\n格式化后支持目录树\n\n\n最大容量\n10PB\n无限\n32TB\n\n\n时延\n低时延（毫秒级）\n较低时延（几十毫秒级）\n极低时延（微秒级）\n\n\n吞吐\n数百Gbps\n数百Gbps\n数十Gbps\n\n\n用户\n自然人\n计算机软件\n可读写块设备的软件系统，如文件系统，数据库\n\n\n\n\n\nNAS\n将存储作为网络文件系统公开，当设备附加到NAS系统时，将显示一个挂载文件系统，用户可使用适当的访问权限访问其文件。对NAS的访问通过NFS和SMB/CIFS协议进行处理。与任何服务器和存储解决方案一样，文件系统负责在NAS中定位文件，这对于数十万甚至数百万文件非常有效，但对于数十亿的文件就不行了。\n块存储\n\n这些玩意-磁带，光盘，软盘 都是块存储\n哪些块组成一个文件，哪些块记录的是目录/子目录信息，这是文件系统的事情\n\n弹性块存储采用三副本分布机制可靠性高；本地存储即本地盘，是指云服务器ECS所在宿主机上的本地硬盘。无论是弹性块存储还是本地块存储，一般用于服务器系统盘或数据盘使用。\n块存储EBS是裸磁盘，挂载到ECS后不能被操作系统应用直接访问，需要格式化成文件系统（ext3、ext4、NTFS等）后才能被访问。块存储EBS的优势是性能高、时延低，适合于OLTP数据库、NoSQL数据库等IO密集型的高性能、低时延应用工作负载。但是块存储EBS无法容量弹性扩展，单盘最大只能32TB，并且对共享访问的支持有限，需要配合类Oracle RAC、WSFC Windows故障转移集群等集群管理软件才能进行共享访问。因此，块存储EBS主要还是针对单ECS的高性能，低时延的存储产品\nNAS和块存储都需要实现用户访问权限的功能，以便对数据进行修改。\n对象存储\n之所以出现对象存储这种东西，是对块存储与文件存储的扬长避短。简单来说，块存储读写快，不利于共享；文件存储读写慢，利于共享。\n\n能否搞一个读写块，利于共享的出来呢？这就是对象存储了。\n另外文件存储的树状结构以及路径访问方式虽然方便人类理解、记忆和访问，但计算机需要把路径进行分解，然后逐级向下查找，最后才能查找到需要的文件，对于应用程序来说既没必要，也很浪费性能。\n\n对象存储最常见解决方案，就是多台服务器内置大容量硬盘，再装上对象存储软件，然后再额外搞几台服务作为管理节点，安装上对象存储管理软件，管理节点可管理其它服务器对外提供读写访问功能。\n以往像FAT32这种文件系统，文件数据和文件Metadata一起存储。存储过程先将文件按照文件系统的最小块大小来打散（如4M的文件，建设一个块4K，那么将文件打散成1000个小块），再写进硬盘里，每个块最后会告知你下一个读取的块的地址，一直这样按图索骥，最后完成整份文件所有块的读取。这种清咖滚下，读写速率很慢，因为就算你有100个机械臂在读写，但只有读到第一个块，才知道下一个块在哪里，相当于只有一个机械臂在实际工作。\n对象存储将原数据独立出去，控制节点叫元数据服务器（服务器+对象存储管理软件），还有专门负责存储数据的分布式服务器。当访问文件对象，元数据服务器反馈对象存储在哪些数据节点，当有多台数据节点同时对外传输数据时，读取速度就加块了。当数据节点服务器数量越多，读写速度提升就越大，继而达到读写加快的目的。\n对象存储的关键概念\n存储空间（Bucket）\n所有对象必隶属于某个存储空间，存储空间有各种配置属性，包括地域、访问权限、存储类型等。用户可根据实际需求，创建不同类型存储空间来存储不同的数据\n对象（Object）\n是存储数据的基本单元，对象没有文件目录层级结构的关系，由元信息（Object Meta）、用户数据（User Meta）和文件（Data）组成，并有存储空间内部唯一的 Key 来标识。\nAccessKey/SecretKey（秘钥）\n对象存储颁发的秘钥，用于鉴权（如用该秘钥用 HmacSHA256 算法来生成访问令牌或签名）\n如何提升访问安全性\n\n不要签名要素均在请求链接里，而是分布在请求链接和请求头中，链接泄露不会造成文件泄露。\n仅使用常见的 accessKey、secretKey无法构造有效请求，增加参数量构成（如 Appid，终端用户标识，…），与业界常见设计造成一定区隔。签名注册必须由后台系统来完成\n签名的有效期的常规设计自不必说\n设计链接有效次数，即使合法的请求者，也只能访问有限次\n\n说的这么牛，咋不上天一统江湖\n\n一类应用需存储直接磁盘映射，如数据库，为性能计，为历史资产继承计。\n对象存储在非海量场景，成本还是较文件存储高，如需买专门的对象存储软件和大容量硬盘。\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["存储"]},{"title":"城市用电量大数据","url":"/%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E9%87%8F%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html","content":"\n第七次人口普查数据出来了，发布的信息都是政府早就知道的，我曾经问上门普查的女民警，她也不说不出普查的实际意义，可惜养了一堆干简单活的公务员。\n通过大数据的手段人口总量啊，人口分段分层啊，早就大差不大。普查也就实际对在籍的人口常住流动做一个精确的摸底，决定后续三四线的财政投资和政策投资动向吧。在智慧政务或治理层面，估计中国是远超世界一众国家的（后来者的建设优势），通过各项大数据，讲将一眼透视各地的发展特征。\n用电大数据\n工业社会/城市化，用电量是一个直观的指标，但指标的解读一样要注意多面立体化。\n\n工业用电量的增长，与城市经济发展密切相关（第二产业大市就是用电量大市）；\n生活用电更多地会受到气候变化影响；\n人均用电高的多是资源型城市，三产经济占比低，人均指标无法衡量经济运行质量。\n\n2017市区用电量\n\n)\n\n\n市区用电总和方面，北，上，深，天津（工业用电&gt;广州），广州位居前五，上海高过北京接近50%，第六是重庆\n奇妙的是苏州，位列第七。超过一众省会城市。苏州GDP高（市区全国第12，全市全国第7），产业结构偏向现代工业和制造业。按全市口径（非仅限市区），2016年苏州用电量占江苏1/4，是我国用电量第二大的城市。\n地域上三线城市用电量高度集中在山东半岛，珠三角，长三角。京津冀的城市发展还是不均衡（Top 30有2座，珠长各有6座，山东甚至有7座）\n\n\n工业用电\n上海，天津，重庆，东莞（深圳产业转移助推），深圳，唐山（承接北京高耗能转移），苏州，广州。北京压缩高耗能如愿，只排到第六\n生活用电\n靠消费水平及人口基数决定。上海，北京，广州，深圳，Top20的城市人口多超过500w，市区人口少（低于400w）而生活用电较高的有长沙，福州，厦门，这三座对夜生活喜爱啊\n三产，公共服务及其它用电\n北京超过上海位列第一，更多的机关，古迹维护让北京承担了更多的电力支出。\n很多工业用电大市明显靠后，主因还是三产经济贡献低，城市建设和公共服务仍有较大提升空间.\n人均方面，人口少的资源或旅游城市就靠前了（有钱任性&amp;旅游装扮）\n人均用电量\n\n没有任何省会城市进入TOP20，上海和南京甚至进不了TOP50\n\n用电指标在人均这个数值上，无法全面衡量经济运行的“质量”。\n服务业更节能\n一般是三产占比较低的工业尤其是制造业城市，也有不少是资源型城市，如嘉峪关（铁）、攀枝花（铁）、黑河（金、铜）、抚顺（煤）、百色（铝）等城市，冶金、铸造均会消耗大量电力，但就经济发展、就业率等方面的贡献来说不如三产密度高的城市大，反而成为调结构压产能的对象。\n\n气候因素\n人均生活用电方面，除了受到居民生活水平影响之外，更多的还会受到地域气候、生活作息、取暖方式等因素影响，如福州、长沙、珠海、三亚等气候炎热、夜生活相对丰富的城市生活用电量均居于前列，黑龙江的黑河、双鸭山人均用电量也均位居全国前十。而华北、华东区域用电量则相对较少一些，如北京、上海、南京、济南人均生活用电量均在800千瓦时左右。\n资源城市不差钱，旅游城市铆劲亮\n三产、公共服务及其他用电方面，人口较少的资源型、旅游城市则往往会占优，如白银、张掖、石嘴山等资源型城市即居于全国前三，三亚排在了第四的位置。\n\n不懂南阳为什么那么高，是在用民电磨玉石么？\n\n\n人均工业用电增速\n我国城市市区规划变化较大，尤其省会城市为了加速城市边界扩张和带动周边发展，常常会撤县设区，因此计算市区百分比增速数据会严重失真，指标方面人均工业用电量的实际增量会更有指导意义。人均工业用电量的增长更会是“有质量“地增长，更与经济发展息息相关。人均工业用电量正增长的重点城市，其人均GDP增量也大多居于全国前列的位置。\n\n在全国GDP增量TOP10城市中，除深圳外工业用电量均为正增长，深圳在腾笼换鸟调结构，总部经济明显，收益很大。\n结语呼应\n\n用电量总量高的城市更多的是人口大市\n人均用电量高的城市更多的是资源型城市或重工业城市\n增长指标而言，工业用电量的增长（生活用电更多地会受到气候变化影响）是实体经济发展的重要参考指标\n\n参考\n1.克而瑞 大数据|如何正确看待城市用电量指标 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["地理"]},{"title":"堆排序与归并排序","url":"/%E5%A0%86%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F.html","content":"大家最常见的就是用数组这一数据结构来记录一系列有序或无序的数据。\n堆排序\nHeap\n\n此文讲的堆和堆内存不是一个概念。属于大家都形而上的用了这个英文词来描述自己的领域概念。\n\n完全二叉树\n\n叶子结点只出现在最下层和次下层（所有分支长度几乎相同，最长分支最短分支差异最多为1），最下层节点都集中在最左边若干位置的二叉树\n\n堆也是一颗完全二叉树，举例如下无序数组：$\\begin{bmatrix}4 &amp;5 &amp;3 &amp;2 &amp;6 &amp;1 \\end{bmatrix}$。表示为完全二叉树的形式为\n\n基于完全二叉树的基本性质，可从数组索引角度描述数字与数字在二叉树中的位置关系，堆的结构性要求其为完全二叉树，就为了使用此好特性好结论\n\n$A_i$ 的左节点为 $A_{2i+1}$\n右节点为$A_{2i+2}$\n父节点为 $A_{i/2}$\n\nFull vs Complete vs Perfect\n\n\n二叉树通常用链表通过指针实现。堆的“(almost)-complete”属性及所有非叶子节点也是数值节点，对于将其实现为数组非常有用。堆为完全二叉树，我们可使用位置来确定哪个节点是哪个节点的子节点，i，2i+1，2i+2。\n\nalmost-complete 和 complete是一个意思\nfull binary tree 要求只要你有孩子，就必然是有两个孩子，但不要求所有长短分支差异最多为1的约束，也不要求孩子在最左边位置优先集中\n\n堆序性\n堆序性，通俗点也是说，父节点中的元素不小于（不大于）任意子节点的元素。\n我们举例大根堆，一个节点元素在其子树所有元素组成的集合中必定是最大值。\n\n如下3个，都是符合定义的大根堆\n\n\n具体实现\n\n根据无序数组创建一个大根堆，不断调整大根堆，使其达到有序。\n\n堆排序是一种算法，可归纳为2个步骤：\n\n将输入数组转换为堆 – 初始堆排序\n将堆转换为排序数组 – 堆排序输出\n\n交换-下沉\n将根元素与最后一个叶子节点元素交换位置，这样做产生了两个后果：\n\n\n最大值6被挑选出来，置于数组的末位 （1和6换位置）【首尾交换】\n\n\n根节点元素1打乱了堆序性\n\n\n其中第2点不是我们希望的结果，那就重复做这个过程（此时，尾部元素6不参与任何交换位置操作，已经是最终位置，且它确定是最大值，后续的二叉树可以将元素6排除在外）【元素下沉】\n\n每次堆顶元素与数组尾部元素互换后，我们要处理生成最大堆树的节点数据都会减一\n\n\n\n通过重复提取最大元素，在$\\mathcal{O}(n\\log(n))$的复杂度下，可轻松使用它生成排序数组（提取的元素放置在数组末尾，不再参与下一轮的堆处理中）。\n这一点上，大根堆实现数组从小到大排序；小根堆实现数组从大到小排序。\n概念Tips\n堆本身不是排序数组\n原始数组\n[9,7,3,5,4,2,0,6,8,1]\n转换成 堆\n[0,1,2,5,4,9,3,6,8,7]\n而排序数组是\n[0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]\n堆看上去元素顺序看起来不像原始数组中那样随机，但它们没有完全排序。\n堆形式并不是唯一的\n\n对于给定的无序数组，根据算法的叶子节点左右大小设定不同，可以构建出多个大根堆，即可以生成的大根堆并不是唯一的\n\n上段中的数组，转换成堆不止一种形式\n       0      /      \\     1        2 （这里2，1左右互换，也是符合堆的含义的）   /   \\     / \\  5     4   9   3 / \\   / \\ / \\ / \\6   8 7\n归并排序\n兄弟排序算法\n\n冒泡排序和选择排序，是最好理解最容易实现的两种排序算法。\n\n\n\n冒泡：交换相邻两个元素，将最大元素升至最后位置（像水中的冒泡）\n\n\n选择：遍历所有元素，选出最小的 ，放在排序序列头部，然后再从未排序元素中继续寻找最小的，放到已排序序列末位，以此类推直至排好所有元素（这点的一个个来，和堆排序有那么一点神似）\n\n\n\n这二位相较于其他排序算法，除了易于理解外，并无任何优势，所以在实际开发或类库中，基本没人用。\n\n\n\n插入排序，像打扑克牌，核心是将某个元素插到合适位置，该元素后所有元素都后移一个位置（比较和挪动到抽牌处为止）。适用场景为大部分数据近乎有序。如原始数据根据订单完成时间排序，现需要根据订单发起时间排序，这样每个元素就能很快挪到正确位置。这个动图比较形象 插入排序动图\n\n\n快速排序是最快的的通用排序算法，多数情况下，都适合适用快速排序。\n\n\n外部排序的选择\n归并排序：将已排好序的两部分进行归并（合在一起），动图的话观看 归并排序动图\n当待排序的文件超过内存可使用容量，文件无法一次性放到内存中进行排序，需要借助外部存储器，称为外部排序。外部排序算法由两个阶段构成，类比为Map-Reduce过程也合适\n\n按内存大小，将大文件分成若干子文件，将各子文件依次读入内存，适用恰当的内部排序算法对其进行排序，将排好序的归并段重新写入外存，为下一个子文件排序腾出内存空间\n对得到的顺序段进行合并，直至得到整个有序文件位置。\n\n例如含有1w个记录的文件，内存可使用容量仅为1k个记录，毫无疑问需要使用外部排序算法（可以看作是选择排序的组合版）。\n\n实际归并过程中，由于内存容量限制不能满足同时将2个归并段全部完整的读入内存进行归并，只能不断取2个归并段中的每一小部分进行归并，通过不断读取数据和向外写数据，直至2个归并段完成归并成1个大的有序文件。\n\n\n多路归并\n堆外部排序算法来说，影响整体排序效率的因素主要为读写外存的次数，即访问外存越多，花的时间也越多。\n简单来看，访问外存的次数同归并次数成正比（每次归并都要在外存中暂存结果），两个角度可助力提高算法效率\n\n\n减少初始归并段的数量m，即增加每个归并段(小文件)的容量\n\n\n增加k-路同行归并的段数\n\n\n因此在m个初始段下，提高归并时参与的段数，可以加快效率。这也是多路归并的由来\n多路举例\n\n2路归并\n\n\n\n5路归并\n\n\n归并路数扩大的弊端\n无限度增加K值，虽会减少读写外存数据的次数，但会增加内部归并的时间。\n\n2路归并，每次从2个文件中得到一个最小值只需比一次，5路归并时要比4次。\n\n如要得到整个临时文件，耗费的时间就会相差很大，如何同等参数下优化算法缩减比较次数（耗时）呢？\n算法优化登场\n结论先行\n\n最小堆 $\\Rightarrow$ 胜者树 $\\longrightarrow$ 败者树\n\n首先选择用来做外部排序优化的是最小堆，(小文件内部为最小堆)，它的插入和查询复杂度都是$\\mathcal{O}(\\log(n))$，可以说比较高效。不过，堆调整时，每个节点都需要和左右孩子进行比较，即需要2次比较。在不考虑块读取优化的外部排序中，也就是需要读取两次外存，能不能再优化下呢？\n树排与堆排\n二叉堆\n二叉堆除了可以应用于对一个数组进行堆排序外，还可以应用于多路归并排序中。\n\n堆排序的后半部分算法中，就是一个很明确的，多个值中选取极值，取出极值，更新根，然后修复堆的过程。在多路归并排序中，每次取出极值后，堆长度未变\n\n胜者树\n树排，全称可叫树形选择排序，因为其排序过程和体育比赛中的8进4, 4进2, 2争冠非常相似，所以树排又称为锦标赛排序，且树排中用到的树就是胜者树（8进4，4进2，2争冠嘛）\n树排算法很简单：\n\n建树。注意事项是胜者树种的节点都是原数组中的索引，而不是真实值（因为第二步要拿到冠军的索引，节点都在叶子上），然后一路向上更新胜者树\n冠军出堆，然后找到冠军的索引，将此索引处的值变成inf（要求最小），进行siftUp调整，剩余元素个数-1\n\n重复上述步骤直至剩余元素个数为0，此时按照出堆顺序就是从小到大的。\n\n胜者树的特征\n\n1. 完全二叉树 2. 每个叶子节点表示一个选手，记录选手的标号3. 每个非叶子节点表示一场比赛，记录胜者（数值小的）的标号，每层表示一轮比赛\n\n\n新插入选手（红色–来自另一个归并段的胜者），胜者树重构\n\n\n胜者树与堆的异同\n都是完全树，时间复杂度量级也一样，最大的区别就是堆的非叶子节点有包含元素，而胜者树只有叶子节点有元素，非叶子节点用来存放两个节点的胜者。由于此结构上的差异，在每次调整的时候堆分别要跟两个孩子进行两次比较，而胜者树只需要跟兄弟进行一次比较即可，效率上会高一点（路径保存了额外的信息）。\n树深度的疑问\n但大家可能有疑问，你比较次数虽然少了，但堆非叶子节点也含有原始数据，所以堆的树高度会比胜者树低，那么要调整的次数少了，综合起来是否差不多？\n请注意，大家都是完全二叉树，每增加一层，节点数目可容纳就多了一倍，因此堆的高度一般也之比胜者树矮一层，这样定性来分析，堆在高度上也只有很小的优势。\n胜者树vs败者树\n\n胜者树在内部排序有用，而败者树在外部排序的多路平衡归并中有用武之地，怎么讲？其实现在程序的主要瓶颈在于访存了，计算倒几乎可以忽略不计了，谁能在减少比较/更新次数上更胜一筹，谁将拔得头筹！这必然要重新调整数据结构设计\n\n比较胜者树与败者树的代码，非常相似，都像是一根根不断将数组中的水（数组元素）吸取上来然后吐出来，也都是完全二叉树，是树形选择排序的一种变形。\n胜者树，新元素上升时，首先需获得父节点值（内容是下标），然后再获得兄弟节点的值进行比较，相较于堆减少了一半的比较量。且因为新插入的值取代了原先的最优胜者，新值向上调整的过程中，必然要更新父节点，能不能再优化呢？\n败者树就抓住者一小点再做优化\n\n胜者树种的非叶子节点存储的是胜利的一方；而败者树非叶子节点存储的是失败的一方，而在比较过程中，都是拿胜者去比较。有一个额外指针保存当前的胜者。\n\n败者树解决了胜者树存在的弊端，只需和父节点比较一次，新插入的值向上调整中，不一定要更新【总得来说，减少了访存时间】。\n胜者树和败者树在每输出和补充一个值之后都需要自底向上调整，每上升一层都需要一次比较，败者树是和父节点的一次比较，胜者树适合兄弟的一次比较，在比较的内存次数上二者没有太大的差别。不同的是胜者树每次必然需要更新胜者（这条路径就是以原来的最终胜者为外部节点的路径，而原来的最终胜者已经被输出了），但败者树每次不一定需要更新，这代表它在每次上升时可能会少一次向内存的写入，因此更优。\n败者树工作过程\n\n如上图为一个5路归并的败者树，其中b0 ~ b4为叶子节点，分别为5个归并段中存储的记录的关键字。ls位一维数组，表示非叶子节点，存储的数值表示第几归并段（如b0就为第0归并段），ls[0]中存储的为最终胜利者，如图表示第3归并段中的值最小。\n当胜利者筛选出来后，只需要更新叶子结点b3的值，即导入15，然后让该节点不断与其父亲节点表示的值进行比较，败者留在父亲节点，胜利者继续向上比较\n\n\n为防止归并过程中某个归并段变空，处理办法通常是在每个归并段最后附件一个关键字为最大值的记录，这样当某一时刻选出冠军位为最大值时，表明所有归并段已全部归并完成。\n\n量化对比\n在堆，胜者树，败者树，空间和时间复杂度都一样，没有量级上的差别，但还是有优中选优的差异。\n堆不消多说，胜者树每次从k个组中首元素中选一个最小的值，加入到新组，都要比较k-1次，算法复杂度就是 $\\mathcal{O}((n-1)(k-1))$，而如果用败者树，可以在$\\mathcal{O}((n-1)\\log(k)$的复杂度下，得到最小的数。对于外部排序这种数据量超大的排序来说，也是一个不小的提高，故外部排序大多采用的都是败者树算法实现的【在信息爆炸的年代，海量数据大文件排序是很普遍的】。\n外排序本质上在真正排序的时候用的还是内排序的算法，毕竟CPU不能直接和外存打交道。外部排序比内排序在同等算法下要慢得多，根本原因在于IO时间相比内存和cpu交互运算时间太长，所以外部排序的算法主要集中的地方在于如何有效降低读写外存的次数，次数越多，算法效率越低，一种思路就是增加k路平衡归并中的k值。但无限增加k值，虽会减少读写外存的次数，但会增加内部归并的时间。败者树数据结构使得在增加 K 值时不会线性的影响内部归并的效率，所以成为一种优中之选。\n后记\n临近春节，把这拖拖拉拉一直放在草稿箱5个月的文稿终于可以post出来，事情结项如此拖沓，着实惭愧，清扫TODO的心境是松弛的，轻装迎接兔年。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["算法"]},{"title":"墨家从流行到没落","url":"/%E5%A2%A8%E5%AE%B6%E4%BB%8E%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%B0%E6%B2%A1%E8%90%BD.html","content":"\n墨家在战国时期曾是显学，孟子说：天下之言，不归杨，则归墨。说明当时儒家的式微，辩论赛的正方反方都没儒家什么事。\n\n杨朱：老庄分支；一毛不拔；无政府主义\n墨家：社会主义\n\n出现及与儒家的对立\n墨子「出身为有技术的奴隶」原来就是儒家门生，然而他越学越觉得不对劲，非常不认同儒家那套伪君子佶（ji）屈聱牙（礼制繁琐，丧葬耗财，守丧耽误生产），反而成为反对儒家的急先锋。列举看看与儒家有哪些对立。\n\n墨子这本书的前半部分是记录自己的哲学主张，有著名的墨家十论，除了我们熟悉的兼爱、非攻，还有尚贤，尚同，节用，节葬，天志，明鬼，非乐，非命。这已经有一些破除礼节和花费的务实主义论调，后面的章节就直接叫非儒，明摆着指着鼻子开喷。\n有一章叫公孟，记录墨子与当时一个公孟子的辩论，结果是墨子大获全胜\n\n出身造就本心不同\n春秋战国时代“士”分两种\n\n没落的贵族（孔子）\n靠自己的努力获得一定地位的社会底层的人（墨子）\n\n\n受创始人出身影响，两个派别追求的本心内容难免会不一样，墨子又非常聪明，分道扬镳也是势所必然。\n\n\n\n孔子拥护之前的社会制度，墨子想要打破束缚，建立新的社会制度\n\n\n孔子好音律，墨子却视作奢靡之物\n\n\n孔子讨厌机械之类投机取巧的物件，墨子确是著名的机械能手\n\n\n\n有关机关术\n也是有的，因其个人出身背景，比较专注于理工类知识的研究。\n墨子一书也记载墨子（守城）和鲁班（攻城）一战还是墨子胜。\n杨朱派的反对\n墨家理论比杨朱派（核心思想是全性保真）出现的要早一些，杨朱一派的产生有一部分原因就是反对墨子。杨朱是非常极端的贵己主义，墨家就是另外一个极端的道德主义，比儒家更甚。\n杨朱与老庄的不同\n老庄追求精神修养（清心寡欲），杨朱追求身体享受与自由（生命长短无意义-若不能掌握自己的时间自由，尊崇本性快乐生活才重要，贵己和唯我，爱自己第一位）\n从显学到消亡\n从如下三个角度来看，虽然也有木心老先生觉得用墨家来治国，中国早是强国，但考虑其第二点的反人性，也就是一个理想主义的泡影吧。\n从统治者角度看（外）\n墨家除了是一套哲学，他还是一个世俗化组织，足够引起统治者的戒心。\n\n墨家提倡团体生活，拥有严格的组织结构。\n墨家的领袖是终身制，整个墨家学派的成员必须严格遵守规定，他们形成了一支组织严密的军队（只听从于巨子），这支军队具有很敏捷的防御能力。\n\n统治者最怕的不是有野心的小人，恰恰是有极大号召力的君子。\n这也是位极人臣后通常有人通过各种方式给自己加污点，反而让相关的老大龙颜大悦。否则你有了能力和势力，即使你再怎么忠厚老实，也难免不被找借口问罪，墨子这种有号召力的君子做派，难为统治者所喜。\n从墨家教义角度看（内）\n成为墨家弟子，要有献身精神（视死如归）。相对于孔子食不厌精脍不厌细的生活态度，相对于道家只有少数东西不吃（五荤三厌），“衣同囚，食同丐，居如穴”，是墨家向往的生活。墨家行的是一种苦行憎般的生活，但又没有苦行僧的超脱。\n苦行僧是一种非常出世的生活态度，在忍受形而下的艰苦的同时，又能享受形而上的精神愉悦。而墨家体系中，既没有丰富的物质激励，又没有通过神秘学创建的一套精神激励，一味强调对自己的克制，一腔热血为苍生，违背了人性的本来面目。\n\n庄子在天下一书中对墨子进行了批评，认为他反天下之心（恐其不可以为圣人之道），注定无法长久。\n但墨子自己的精神世界伟大这个谁也黑不了，对此庄子又补了一句，墨子真天下之好也。\n\n这个世界所有需要大力宣传的东西，都不是真的，都不是真理，比如说人要大公无私，要奉献，要学会忍受苦难和清贫等。这些都不是人性的本质，所以才需要不断的教化。而那些从不宣传的不允许宣传的，难登大雅之堂的，甚至打压的东西才是真理，才是这个世界的本质。如没有人宣传如何自私，敛财，懒惰。\n多数人要做的，不是逃离这些最根本的人性，去接受世俗的教条，而是要深刻体会并学会利用这些人性的本质，明白这个才是大智慧，才能实现你更伟大的目标或向上跨越。\n从分裂和门人凋敝来看\n墨子在的时候能很好协调墨徒的兼容性，共同为发展做贡献。有的专门研究与其他学派进行辩论，有的专门研究如何实现兼爱，非攻，行侠仗义；有的一心专研自然之理，科学之道。\n墨子死后，从事同一方向的墨徒纷纷齐聚一方，宣扬自己才是真传。分裂为三派：\n\n楚墨为侠客代表，信义为先，坚守兼爱非攻，在底层留下良好印象。\n秦墨是科技人员的代表\n齐墨是论者的代表。\n\n分裂的墨家已不全面，自废武功，开启衰败之势。\n天下乱成一锅粥时，墨子能做到严于律己，最初的几代也能做到（然而能担当大任的人太少，就像儒家后续还有孟子荀子发展学派，墨家却没有声名赫赫的墨子带领继续发展了），且碰到天下承平之后，大家生活富足喜乐，还能剩下多少人这么苛刻的对待自己呢？\n在非攻的守城战中，视死如归也极易出现培养数十年的人才却英年早逝的情况，也是门派的损失。\n\n第三代巨子孟胜就为朋友楚阳城君看家时舍生取义（楚王要收回阳城君封地，孟胜知不可抗，但有违所托），180门徒跟随取义。\n\n儒家怎么翻身的\n秦太超前，看不得儒家的不务实\n秦只传了两代就亡了，亡就亡在秦始皇太超前了，至少领先时代100年。在他手分封制一下进入郡县制，这个过程太猛了，为了实现他做了很多功在千秋的努力，开灵渠，统一文字，度量衡，建驰道，巡视全国，要把全国统一起来。有些东西不是他一个人可以做到的，大统一需要很多技术上的进步以及制度上的改善。\n大统一王朝的巩固是在汉武帝时期\n\n\n刘邦开了点倒车搞了郡国并行制，先稳定下来，然后景帝削藩，武帝推恩令，这样天下才归于一人。\n\n\n文帝开始又搞了察举制，让地方豪强有上升通道，像项羽这样的人不至于给人家办红白喜事从而产生不满报复社会。\n\n\n汉武帝又干了打击豪强的事(没办完又退回去了)，汉武帝都没完全实现始皇帝的目标，因为门阀还在，地方豪强还控制着地方。到了唐朝门阀还很强。\n\n\n始皇帝想要的天下其实是大唐盛世这样的天下，达到这样的程度需要更多的技术，比如马镫（投放力量到四方），印刷术，纸张（传媒，普及司法，不会出现农民工被陈胜这个包工头「法盲」欺骗造反）的出现。没有这些工具，嬴政超前8百年，很难做到心中的壮举。\n汉代的特别\n战国后期荀子填法入礼，适合帝王，只是历代扬孔而隐荀不明说。儒家才在汉代被搬上舞台。\n刘邦这个泥腿子出身不行，观念，行为都很差，安排这样的人来当皇帝，是历史上少见的例子。或许正是将草根注入上层，才能破除旧规，不受贵族中流行的杨朱一派掣肘，不受墨家一派的蛊惑（当时两大显学，不过当时的统治阶级能受墨家蛊惑是不可能的），由他和他的家族来做皇帝，反正什么都不懂，才会把儒家复兴起来。\n\n来自曾仕强的一种解读，也不免有一番趣味（虽然不在他手上独尊儒术）\n\n读史的好处\n学史明理、学史增信、学史崇德、学史力行。\n我们经历的那些悲欢，其实别人早就经历过，王朝更迭中的挣扎，命运洪流里的浮沉，甚至是一场误解，一次遗憾，都能在史书中找到回声，如王安石变法成空，张居正身后倾覆，读史会明白执念终会风化，时间也从来不会为谁停留。历史从来不提供答案，但它会不断的告诉我们，眼前的山，早就有无数人爬过，太阳底下无新事，懂得的你人生也就多了一份从容。\n欲知大道，必先为史，看穿本民族迷雾。读更多族群的历史，则可看穿人类族群迷雾，有如《历史的教训》一样。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"大国大民地图炮","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%BD%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE%E7%82%AE.html","content":"\n优秀的执政者们，其内在逻辑往往趋同，一要高度抽象，二要抓主要矛盾。正所谓治大国如烹小鲜，这种逻辑可总结为三个中国：关键中国、敏感中国、无所谓中国，几者的区别就是心腹之患和肘腋之患的区别。什么叫关键中国，北上广，江浙，牵一发动全身，这都是执政者时刻关注的，必要时亲自抓的地方。什么叫敏感中国，如新疆西藏，虽地处边陲，但牵涉我国核心利益，战略地位很高，也是高度重视的区域，这种地方干部，非得能力与魄力并重的干将不可。什么是无所谓中国，只是相比之下没那么重要，从用人角度而言，是过渡人，检验人，锻炼人的地方。\n我们当前碰到的是辽阔，复杂，急速变化的中国，人类历史所罕见。虽然充斥碎片化的表述，但不应附以高度撕裂的情绪宣泄。成熟的一大标志是宽容与自信，我们就简要看看这块辽阔大地的些许地域风味。\n中华上半场舞台-陕西\n提到中国社会转型的重大变革，离不开周秦，强盛年代，则必称汉唐。若说周秦汉唐组成了中华文明的上半场，陕西则是上半场毋庸置疑的主舞台。概括来说，周礼，秦制、汉习、唐风，也算是陕西给中华文明的最高贡献。\n在没有发明铁器前，黏滞板结的土壤很难耕作，而北方黄图高原的疏松肥沃的黄土，特别适合我们使用石器和木器的先民。\n\n与黄土地上的农业生产活动相关的祭祀仪式，是周礼诞生的基础。分封，世袭，井田，等级观念等，都是周礼的延伸与扩展。从历史上看，陕北历来都是少数民族的地盘，也是各民族相互征战的战场，民族大融合一直都在这一地区进行着。这使得陕北地区既有农耕文化的厚重，又有游牧文化的粗犷，既有中原文化的底蕴，又有边疆文化的纹饰。\n游牧文明传承的毛病\n草原上王位传承往往采用兄终弟及，因为在草原部落联盟中，维系凝聚力的基础就是大汗个人的绝对强势，征伐频繁，若采用父死子继制，常出现主少国疑，很快分崩离析，兄终弟及实属不得已为之。但兄终弟及最大的矛盾点在于，兄弟间都是同一辈分，按最乐观的情况来假设，一代人不过区区百年。本代最后一位汗王过世后，留下的是无数虎视眈眈的皇子皇孙，除非有极强势的人物横空出世，否则一场席卷草原的大分裂将不可避免，这也是草原帝国国祚通常不满百年的重要原因。这一套政治问鼎中原， 通常混乱不可避免。\n表里山河发现山西\n五千年看山西，看的不是帝王将相，也不是亭台楼阁，而是文明的生发。宋元以降，全国经济中心逐渐南移，元末明初天下大乱中，山西获得过短暂的喘息机会，当时两淮中原一带是主战场，血流成河。而靖难之役使得华北华东硝烟密布，彼时山西，表里山河，易守难攻，独善其身，成了离乱年代的乐土。而好景不长，明朝统一后，其它各地经济凋敝，人烟稀薄，躲过一劫的山西成了全国最大的人口迁出地，洪洞大槐树自此有名。\n表里山河的封闭体系让山西人总体偏保守，两山夹出一连串断陷盆地更弱化了内部交流，曾横跨农耕，游牧两大文化区让山西人更多元，既有抠门又有豪爽，既保守又激进。百度的李彦宏很保守，融创的孙宏斌很激进，乐视的贾跃亭更激进。\n涤荡黑金盛宴心灵要点时间\n山西的黑金经济使得环境污染，经济失衡，但人心蒙尘才是真正的诅咒。三十年的黑金盛宴，影响更多的是人心，人性共通的贪婪，虚荣，侥幸，就像癌细胞一样，在利益的驱动下无限恶性增值，分布极广，荼毒极深，实现人心层面的净化，绝非一朝一夕之功。\n齐鲁之地\n齐人求工仅限于臣，鲁人求德也仅限于辅王，所以山东在历史上没出过皇帝，齐鲁可谓殊途同归，齐人总希望做的是体制内的豪杰，鲁人追求的则是循规蹈矩的圣贤，齐鲁文化构成了山东人性格的基本面。\n海上山东\n\n自明代以来，运河经济日渐衰落，以打鱼和煮盐为生的沿海荒僻之地开始勃兴，海上山东也露出雏形\n\n历代以来，中国人民其实都在远离海洋，文学上也是如此，除了曹孟德的一首《观沧海》，少有直接描写海洋的诗篇。不论是李白的海客谈瀛洲，还是苏轼的江海寄余生，更多是诗人的浪漫想象。波诡云谲的海洋往往意味着灾难和变化，所以在农耕文明的语境下，中国人对海洋一向敬而远之。\n在传统中国的九州天下观众，山东是离海洋最近的，在古代中国（从夏商周到秦汉这2千年），山东沿海区域–胶东–主导者整个中华民族的海洋观。\n治乱中原\n五味杂陈，苦辣酸甜的胡辣汤里，熬着一部千年河南史。唐朝开国百余年，皇帝待在洛阳时间长达五十多年，皇帝都戏称自己为逐粮天子，政权东迁另一个重要原因是长安缺水。\n黄泛区\n黄河于1194年（金章宗明昌5年，南宋光宗绍熙四年）向南决口，夺淮入海，河南原有的漕运系统被彻底摧毁，富饶的豫东平原成为黄泛区，从此京杭运河干脆不走河南，改走山东济宁，临清。这使得河南的地位一落千丈，加速了自北宋灭亡后的衰落之路。\n\n黄河经常淤塞河床，决堤泛滥。中央集权必须要有威望能动员所有的资源，指挥有关的人众，才可实现有效的全流域管控。当分裂时间过长，中央集权衰落，环境上就会产生极大的压力，呼唤大一统的再度出现。\n\n河南（东部）骗子，安徽（北部）乞丐，苏北苦力，山东（东南部）强盗，这四类是现代中国人之间最流行的地域歧视的受害者。他们在地理上接壤，且同属黄泛区，黄泛区带来最致命的问题，不是贫困与流离，而是不稳定。河洛大地的文明史烙印在黄河摆动的轨迹上，正是因为不知道明天和意外哪个先来，黄泛区的人们一直不太热心自家房屋的建设，时刻准备逃难，自然不会在装修和布置上花费力气，房屋和家具摆设常能看出凑合的味道。有恒产者有恒心，无恒产者无恒心，苟无恒心，放辟邪侈，无不为己。坑蒙拐骗舞刀弄枪都无所顾忌。\n安徽亳州，已很难看到过去黄泛区极不稳定的自然环境和社会环境，但这种不稳定的环境对命运的看淡，或许正是老庄思想的源头。\n农耕+灾难熬就风霜\n河南人的性格弱点中，灾难带来的不稳定性是一面，另一面是高度发达的农耕文明造就的小农意识：春种秋收导致的精明，自给自足导致的保守，格局所限导致的愚昧。无论是放辟邪侈还是小农意识，河南的问题都是中国民族性的深刻体现和浓缩。人穷志短，马瘦毛长，整个中华民族又何尝不是如此呢。福地和战场轮转，沃土和灾区互换，文明和劫难交织，天下之中，中不中的乡音，一起熬成了河南这碗饱经风霜，历久弥香的胡辣汤。\n寂寞安徽\n今天的安徽，存在感弱很正常，毕竟存在感的前提是认同感。黄河流域的省份，认同感相对强烈，齐鲁，燕赵，中原，三晋，三秦，甘陇，行政板块就是文化板块，早早就定型了，各有疆界，传承至今。像安徽这样因为政治原因被拆分或硬捏到一起的省份，自然没什么认同感可言。堂堂安徽甚至没有安徽话，有人说吴侬软语，有人操北方官话，省内不同地域的人最好用普通话交流。八大菜系的徽菜，和皖北人也基本没什么关系，在这样的大背景下，认同感弱点再也正常不过（安徽就像一盆大锅饭，你是土豆我是白菜，它是萝卜，相互不搭界，唯一共同点在同一口大锅里，不过，土豆对锅哪有什么认同感）。\n历史上守江必守淮，也就是代表着今天的安徽，皖中天然是条拉锯战线，一省之内打得战火连天，从这个角度看，皖南和皖北人互相看不顺眼简直是天经地义。\n徽京的调侃\n南京的确曾是安徽，江苏两省共同前身江南省的省会。两省分家后，安徽的行政班子硬是在南京逗留了近百年，才恋恋不舍地搬到安庆。安徽对江苏的影响，除了食物，还有语言。南京话和天津话都与江淮官话非常相似，一个天子脚下，一个天子津渡，都是大明留下的遗产。\n五个浙江\n杭嘉湖平原\n是农耕文明的典型浙江，是富饶江南的典型代表，是文人心中的人间天堂。太湖流域是典型的水乡泽国，丰水期往往酿成灾难，其发展与治水技术的进步密切相关，拦水筑坝和造船建桥技术成熟之日，才是杭嘉湖迎来发展之时。\n温台\n艰山海阻的地形，限制了温台与其他地方的联系，虽有永嘉学派，但书卷气终归是点缀，地形的限制也让这里得以摆脱官方正统思想抑制商业的压力，敢于冒险成为温台人刻在骨子里的精神（猫有猫道，鼠有鼠道，不是无道，各行其道）。\n宁绍平原\n介于杭嘉湖和温台之间，既不像杭嘉湖是鱼米之乡，也不像温台曾海盗横行，它是这两者的结合。绍兴自古文人荟萃，输出师爷，学得文武艺，售予帝王家。宁波文化气息相对淡一些，靠海更喜欢的还是经商。\n丽水，衢州\n丽水是浙江最大的市，经济不出彩，但风景很神秀，更有举世三宝：龙泉青瓷，宝剑和青田石雕，浙江作为文化大省，这些传统工艺也功不可没。衢州四省交界，和浙江风俗有了很大区别，无辣不欢。\n金华\n交通闭塞。但孕育了永康的小家电，义乌的小商品市场，东阳的劳务输出和横店影视城。最出名的还是东阳，义乌。东阳出包工头的同时也出文化人、大匠人。泥瓦匠和木雕非常厉害，给无中生有的横店影视城提供了基础。东阳和义乌虽制造业薄弱，但在做市场方面在中国首屈一指。\n破釜沉舟-义乌小商贸\n关于义务小商品市场，曾经问过宁波人，你们宁波制造业那么发达，更有通江达海的的区位优势，为什么你们没把市场做出来？他们很诚实地说道：刚开始我们也想自己做，后来是发现做不过他们，原因也不太清楚。可能是义务人做制造业根本没有优势，所以只能做市场，再遇上几个眼光长远的官员，能持续制造政策洼地，长远规划，持之以恒，最后产生的巨大的虹吸效应。\n义乌周边的一些制造业重镇，都放弃了自己做市场的野心，一门心思做好制造业，然后把市场放在义务，走向全世界。当整个浙江居全省之力借助义乌平台来释放自己的产品的时候，想不成为世界级的小商品市场都不可能。\n吴头楚尾-粤户闽庭-江西\n1840年鸦片战争后，随着上海开埠与商路变迁，中外贸易重心逐渐由广州转移到上海，后来外国轮船获许在长江通航，全国内外商货流通改道。由此，原来大运河-长江-赣江轴线被迅速废弃。这对整条轴线区域发展都是致命打击，杭州苏州相对影响较小，扬州淮安等传统运河沿线城市只好黯然退场。另一个受影响严重的区域就是江西，由江西至广东的传统商业运输线路完全衰落。\n\n之前进入岭南还是岭南商人学子北上，江西都是必经之路，岭南货物从广州沿北江北上，过了梅关，就可以沿赣江北上直通长江，顺江而下，最终由镇江进入京杭大运河\n\n中国历史王朝更迭，南渡北归之时，中原文明往南逃有条通道，从河南到湖北，再顺江而下，黄梅和对岸的江西九江就是这个重要的过江渡口，自然也成了军事重地。\n江西虽然位于南北交汇的枢纽，但它本质还是一个三面环山的大盆地，有非常典型的农耕文明气质。在低调温和的同时保守谨慎，在精打细算的同时瞻前顾后，在朴实热情的同时缺乏锐气与创新，小富即安，缺乏拼劲的盆地意识强烈。\n两湖楚地\n百年风流-湖南\n清朝文书上说，湖南全省一年税收不及江南一大县，所以上马从军或下马读书，成了很多湖南人改变命运的唯二办法。当年苦于条件所限，只有少数湖南人才能读书，然而几十万盆满钵满的湘军裁撤回乡，一夜间完成了原始积累，开始在家乡置田地，聘塾师，教子弟。短短一二十年，三湘大地兴起一股教化之风，尤其是洞庭湖一代，更是文化昌明。\n\n洞庭湖边的岳阳乃千古名城，因为《岳阳楼记》，其实范仲淹根本没来过岳阳，所谓旅游就是这样，看景不如听景，听景不如想景，神游八极，思接千载。\n\n在跟一部分湖南老板打交道的过程中，发现他们确实百无禁忌，底线颇低，加上湘菜多味，湘女多情，湘水多姿，离醉生梦死也差不远了。\n\n湖南人霸蛮，和近代的曾国藩的确关系不小。曾文正是带领湖南出山的人，还将全国的资本带回湖南，包括教育，饮食等等，重新定义了很多东西，实现了湖南的现代化。近代中国湖南就是翻江倒海的地方，养成一部分湖南人心气高，有韧劲，霸蛮，格局大的特点。\n\n丹田湖北\n正所谓南船北马，湖北就是马和船的转换之地，自然形成了南北文化交融，东西人文荟萃的特征。\n无政府械斗\n万里长江，险在荆江，荆江段河道非常曲折，加之江水刚从三峡的束缚中奔涌而出，导致每逢汛期荆江周边地区极易酿成水患，在治水，修坝，建桥等技术没成熟的时期，江汉平原就是水乡泽国的代名词。每次洪水冲刷后，长泛区地貌都会发生极大改变，要么田地变成湖泽，要么湖泽变成淤地，同时带来很多肥沃的土壤，这种地貌变化非常频繁，导致江汉平原上土地，湖区秩序常陷入无政府状态。农民间对田土，湖权的争夺，只能用暴力分出胜负，以邻为壑，宗族械斗非常常见。\n市井\n\n又奸又狡从某种意义上说也是农耕文明对码头文化的嘲讽和回敬\n\n重庆山高水长，地形闭塞，报团性很强，武汉却很开阔，四面透气，更像是一个江湖与市井的结合体。武汉人也彪悍多体现在嘴上，脏话成了武汉甩不开的标签，行动上，却是出了名的精明。不止武汉，整个湖北都是如此。湖北人是出了名的不报团，相形而言，山东人见了老乡眼睛都放光，广东人也重同乡情谊，温州人也如此，都是抱团一致对外。有些湖北商人做生意时会算的过于精，把个人身家和一时成败考虑得太重，导致生意规模起不来。\n要命的女人\n跟大部分地区女性要么要钱，要么要人不同，湖北女人是两手都要抓，两手都很硬。赚少了，她看不起你，赚多了，会看死你。你在家里，她不省心，你在外面，她不放心，简直是娶了女皇。但洁身自爱，独立自强，像要求男人一样要求自己，也是她们的特点，她们在经营家庭方面，绝对是一等一好手。\n楚地对照\n湖南人比湖北人更完整的保留了南方人基因里的霸蛮，都是干架，湖北人是审时度势，尽兴就好，场面上过得去就行，湖南人是豁出所有，死磕到底，出手就做好决裂的准备。湖北有江西人的精明，而没有江西人的含蓄，作为吴头楚尾的江西，比湖北人更多了一丝含蓄儒雅。同样是精于算计，湖北人是一手钱一手货当面算清，可不占便宜但决不能吃亏，江西人是可以月结，小账可以缓一缓，但算总账的时候，同样把算盘打得滴水不漏。湖北人有安徽人的勤勉，但没有安徽人的谦和，同样重农崇文，勤勉上进，安徽多了一份难得的谦和，多灾少田的安徽，稍有不慎就有饿肚皮的窘况，求人就要懂得放下面子，相对于湖北人不愿求人也不轻易帮人的秉性，安徽人的容忍和谦和让他们的勤勉得到了更丰厚的回报。\n阴阳巴蜀\n烟火成都与江湖重庆。从容淡定，乐天知命，随遇而安，追求享受的成都味。重庆本身产盐，古代的巴国人就是通过贩卖井盐给蜀国和楚国过上了不耕而食，不织而衣的生活。巴人尚武爽直的特点，一直浸染着生息与这片土地的人们。成都的男人像女人，重庆的女人像男人也不是不无道理。\n成渝火锅不仅做法不同，吃法也不同。成都火锅讲究麻辣鲜香，味道细腻讲究，菜品多摆盘也精致好看。重庆火锅则注重劲爆火辣，码头食物都是必点食品。这对欢喜冤家双城记，看似阴阳相对，实则有机整体，互相浸润。\n东北往事\n流民的语言特色\n近代闯关东的汉人大多也是文化水平不高的流民，不懂寻章摘句，因为他们极善于用常见的事物来形容抽象的东西，这种语言的艺术充满了来自草根的生命力，画面力很强，让人耳目一新。\n\n比如同样是一座山，在广东叫笔架山，在江浙叫灵翠峰，在东北就叫一撮毛。\n同是一条河，在广东叫珍珠滩，在江浙叫鉴湖，在东北就叫老母猪河。\n\n你可以说他们少内涵，多粗鄙之词，但这就是鲜明的东北特色。\n\n今天额尔古纳的俄罗斯族，其实就是山东淘金汉子和俄罗斯逃难的上流阶层妇女结合形成的民族。从这些后人的艺术造诣，生活品味中，都明显看出长期浸染的贵族气质\n\n东北的很多地方风景美，但少见宣传，不是东北文旅不想宣传，名字很多让人听了实在憋不住笑。\n\n美如阿勒泰，可名字一看叫老秃顶子山（黑龙江最高峰）；\n原始森林风光超美，一看名字叫干饭盆国家森林公园。\n「智取威虎山」大家都听过，这是美化的名字，不美化应该叫智取大夹屁股沟山。\n云海超美，一看名字叫大牛沟。\n在长白山脚下还有一个叫大裤裆沟的地方。你说能不能宣传？哈哈哈\n\n本山的共情能力\n本山大叔始终保持了一种难能可贵的与普通百姓共情的能力，很多人看待中国广大的草根群体，往往抱着的是科学家研究太平洋土著的心态，又或是成功人士俯瞰凋敝山村时的悲天悯人，只有本山的小品能让无数为生活奔波的人们，放下焦虑与疲惫，笑几分钟，你可以大家批驳其文化格调与艺术价值，但这几亿普通人的笑声和背后的共情，也是东北喜剧文化真正的魅力。\n游牧民族执掌中土\n东北的游牧民族身上集渔猎，游牧，农耕三大特征于一体，再加上距中原的距离和落后的程度恰到好处，他们更容易适应中原文明，更容易建立纵横草原，中原的二元封建政体。\n在经略西域和草原方面，清朝远胜中国其他封建王朝，满族入关，除了带来160万平方公里白山黑土的嫁妆外，更用100多年的时间陆续征服明代疆域之外的准格尔部，西藏，青海，喀尔喀蒙古，将王朝疆域推进至帕米尔高原以东的广阔领域，收复台湾，基本奠定现代中国的雏形。中国历史上纯粹的汉家大一统王朝只有汉，明两个朝代。\n\n宋代按标准来说，都不算大一统王朝，他连北方的皇帝都没有消灭，天下有两个太阳，自己权且算一个割据政权\n\n东北真正的问题不在于小城镇的衰退，而是由于当初打下的底子太好，每个县域经济体都比较完善，造成东北的城市化过度分散，最终导致中心城市不够强。我国经济发展的空间结构正在发生深刻变化，中心城市，城市群正在成为承载发展要素的主要空间形式。\n潮与汕不同\n潮温文儒雅，汕则大不相同，汕头人是典型的海洋族群，对于他们中的一些人而言，和平时当渔夫，混乱时就成了快乐的海盗，形成私人武装，打家劫舍，渔盗一体的现象，在浙江，福建沿海地区都比较普遍，汕头表现的更典型。\n\n苏东坡曾被贬惠州，王阳明到贵州龙场，韩愈到了8个月潮州，其实，名人的到来哪有那么大的作用，他们只是薪火，真正的干柴是中土文明和边缘文明间巨大的落差，及这种落差带来的无限向往\n\n潮汕这两种文化传统，交织成了潮汕人两头摇摆的族群特质，形成海盗和儒雅并存的文化格局。儒雅文化培育出工夫茶，潮汕菜，潮剧等厚重的文化底蕴，还有诚信，义气等良性文化基因；海盗文化则鼓励勇敢走出去，打破底线意识，能发横财，用什么手段无所谓（汕头大多还是官商勾兑灰色手段，汕尾「月黑杀人夜，风高放火天」的玩法着实吓人）。据说深圳有三百多万潮汕人，占深圳人口近四分之一，早期三资企业中近40%为潮汕人所投资。\n潮汕商人天生就对生意敏感，再加上他们的勾兑能力，在大众还没醒过来的时候，他们就把整个中国保险牌照，金融牌照拿了个七七八八。\n一个地方有没有文化要看饮食，文化越高的地方，在饮食上花的功夫就越大，人们把想象力和创新力都放到里面去了。潮汕菜之所以出众，和潮汕商人发达有很大关系，潮汕人最早跑到香港发了财，继而产生舌尖上的乡愁，期待向往家乡的这些美味。\n大湾区\n特区深圳\n所谓经济特区探索，本质上是一场以实用主义为导向的探索，一场以对外开放推动对内改革的微创手术，一场收益最大化，代价最小化的精明生意。\n\n按照熊秉权的说法，袁庚这个人翻手为云覆手为雨，政治品质不好，从某种意义上说，袁庚是玩政治的高手，所以熊秉权跟他发生矛盾时非常痛苦。换一种角度，只问目的，不讲手段也成全了袁庚。\n\n深圳是一个大熔炉，不断淘汰和吸纳，像筛子一样，米往哪里走，慷往哪里走，沙子往哪里，最后各归其位，所以，深圳才能汇聚四海人才，刀口舔血，所以深圳这地方，人情淡如纸，大家都疲惫不堪，惶恐不安，没什么情分礼节可讲。。\n什么是生态？生态就是热带雨林，其中乔木灌木各安其位，老虎狐狸物竞天择。\n华为成功的秘诀，是对人性的激发和控制，构成了一部华为的发展史。在任正非看来，企业管理遵循的是人性和欲望的逻辑，华为能披荆斩棘屹立行业之巅，正是因为团队能激发人性，也能节制人性。坚持力出一孔，利出一孔的原则，集众人之私，以成大公。\n对常识的尊重，最规律的顺应，对本质的把握，这是大湾区强势崛起的真正基石。什么是规律，陈云说：不唯有书，不唯上，只唯实。\n湾区起步\n70年代末，80年代初，香港已经很明显出现了问题，劳动力，土地资源有限，生产要素成本急剧攀升。弹丸之地，光靠制造业的转移，人均1万美元GDP都难以实现，要想继续发展，腾笼换鸟成了必然选择。产业转移契机下，中国打开了门户，这是最大的天时，港商只要有订单，不用给钱，村集体拿土地来入股，借钱找包工头把厂房盖好，港商只要把设备拿过来就可以生产，最后利润两边对账。成本之低简直无法想象，土地不要钱，厂房因陋就简，有取之不尽的劳动力，最大的成本就是那些二手的设备。一个个香港大小老板，跑到老家珠三角，找到当地农民租块地建厂房，不断扩大规模再生产，也没什么道德水准可言，对工人无所不用其极的剥削压榨。\n现今\n制造业会逐渐向都市群外圈移动，核心区高房价留下的是金融和总部经济，东莞多年沉淀的加工制造经验，看上去与深圳形成了完美的配合。\n湾区总结\n这个世界从来不是光辉温暖的温室花园，而是充满残酷搏杀的黑暗丛林。人皆凡夫俗子，你我都不例外。我们可以用正能量引导人性向善，但千万不要指望所有人都是圣人，一旦按照洁白无瑕的标准要求普通大众，这个国家只能批量生产伪君子。人性的水推动了大湾区的船，顺水行舟最终成就了万类霜天竞自由的大生态。\n片面结语\n我们的国家太大，放在欧洲就是一个洲，几十个国家，人跟人之间其实已经是不同国家人的性格，如果没有书同文，方言间说的根本就不是一种语言，大家挤在一个大家庭里，其实各个地方人的性格和方言一样，都是不一样的，互相也并不太懂。\n这块大土地上的逻辑，江浙沪的人看得最明白，他们假装不明白。他们已经接近儒教资本主义社会，氛围就是使劲鸡娃，使劲当官，使劲赚钱。江浙沪的富有家庭很少流连夜店，都是低调谦卑，把所有资源都投入到家庭，投入到下一代，对外不卑不亢，所以江浙沪的人在这个国家混得很好。\n山河四省的人算是这个国家的基本盘，一部分人极端不明白，另一小部分人极端明白。这一小戳人就是许三多那种人，看起来木讷酣傻，得到机会都会混得风生水起。他们太明白这个国家的底层逻辑了，你懂这个省甚至懂所在的那个村，就已经别的不需要再懂了。这是生于山河四省的一个幸运，也是不幸。山东官员多，一部分也基于此。\n北京是个例外，是自以为自己最明白，但其实不明白。离真相太近，离事实太远，所以他们明白的是北京城里事和逻辑，误以为这是整个土地的事。门清，啥都门清，一点就透甚至不点都透，但实际上理解的跟真实不是一码事。他们规矩多，会囿[y$\\grave{o}$u]于规矩，误以为这些规矩就是道理，拿来行事往往事与愿违。\n广东人也是自以为明白其实不明白。这里和香港的文化性格差不多，香港人是一种基于落后的先进，北京是一种基于先进的落后。广东人看起来落后，其实很先进。北京人看起来先进，其实很落后。广东人的价值观一方面生冷不忌，开拓进取的生猛精神，涤荡天下的气概(几百年前甚至一千年前那种好)，另一方面又有很多封建的想法，如男尊女卑敬神敬祖宗。很多有钱人喜欢讨二奶，搞三妻四妾，见怪不怪。不是说别的地方的有钱男人不搞，而是别的地方这样搞成本很高，在文化上是要被谴责的，广东人就有点司空见惯的意思。广东人的想法就是过日子，讨老婆，生仔，然后循环，别管世事变化，永远是过日子，这才是生活的全部。他们以为别的地方的人也是这样生活的，其实不是。广东人的宗族关系让他们有很强的纽带，通常还有不错的家庭氛围和家庭关系。小孩子甚至崇拜自己的父母，这在其它地方是很少见的。他们的封建残余是好的一面，不像其他地方是压抑个人发展，个人自由的东西。一句话就是粤语区同时保留了传统文化中最先进的一面，也保留了糟粕的一面，存在些许矛盾与尴尬。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["地理"]},{"title":"大数据收集处理工具链简介","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%94%B6%E9%9B%86%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E9%93%BE.html","content":"\nHDFS存储格式探查\n\n在 MapReduce 中，数据格式易于分割是被期望的特性\nXML，JSON 都不容易被分割，类似于它们的所有半结构化的格式特征好处是可以模拟复杂的数据结构\n大规模的数据，存储空间和数据能支持模式演变（版本兼容）都是值得考量的因素\n一些常见的序列化格式，如 PB，Thrift 等，都原生没考虑数据分割，一些第三方包的处理方式是在原基础上对格式进行扩展，加入分割块，但序列化/反序列化就需要专有配套的类库\nSequenceFiles/Avro，都是设计出来适配 MapReduce 的文件格式\n\nHive存储格式探查\n\n\n分为元数据存储（通常在关系型数据库中）与数据存储两部分\n\n\n数据存储构建在 Hadoop 的 HDFS 文件系统之上\n\n\n基本的划分，有内部表外部表之分（数据是否全由 Hive 管理为判定依据）\n\n\n常见其它平台有数据入库的过程，统一存储格式，数据清洗\n通常业务直推的文件格式都是行格式组织，入库过程可转换为大数据场景友好的列存储格式\n\n\n\n开放 SerDe 接口用以支持各种格式的文件解析\n\n需要将解析类添加至 classpath 的查找路径，通过 addjar 的方式（支持本地或 hdfs 的 jar 包）\n或者加入固定的 hive lib 目录或配置文件中声明（在公共平台上灵活获得配置支持较难）\n\n\n\nHive 的原生的存储格式选择\n\nTextFile：默认格式，行存储，默认列分隔符 0x01，压缩的text 无法分割和合并\nSequenceFile：压缩的文件可以分割和合并\nAvro（From Hive 0.10.1）直接读写 avro 格式文件\nRCFile (RecordColumnar File)\n\n行列结合，同行数据不会跨 Block 存放，块内数据按列组织存储\n对 schema 演化自持较差\n\n\nORC（Optimized），从名字上就看出是 RCFile的升级\n\n空间「压缩编码」&amp; 性能优化\n支持事务和 Update 操作（自 Hive0.14.0完整支持 ACID 操作）\n\n\nParquet（From Hive 0.13 开始逐步支持），初始设计动机是存储嵌套式数据，如 PB，json，转成列式，方便压缩 和编码，减少 IO\n\nORC 和 Parquet都是 Apache列式存储引擎的顶级开源项目，由不同的厂家推广，性能优劣上 ORC 可能更佳（来自 netflix2014 的测试），Parquet 对嵌套式数据结构支持上更佳\n\n\n\n\nParquet(parquet.apache.org)\nOrc(orc.apache.org)\n\n\n\n\n开发语言\nJava\nJava\n\n\n主导公司\nTwitter/Cloudera\nHortonworks\n\n\nACID\n不支持\n支持\n\n\n修改操作\n不支持\n支持\n\n\n支持索引（统计信息）\n粗粒度索引block/group/chunk级别统计信息\n粗粒度索引file/stripe/row级别统计信息，不能精确到列建立索引\n\n\n支持的查询引擎\nApache Drill、Impala\nApache Hive\n\n\n查询性能\n\n更高一点\n\n\n压缩比\n\n更高一点\n\n\n列编码\n支持多种编码，字典，RLE，Delta 等\n支持主流编码，与 Parquet 类似\n\n\n\nHive 操作 JSON 文件\n\n\n解析操作 JSON 格式的数据，需要引入对应 SerDe 类\n\n在 Hive 安装目录 hcatalog 下有 hive-hcatalog-core-x.x.x.jar包可以采用\n运行命令 add jar /appcom/hive/hcatalog/share/hcatelog/hive-hcatalog-core-x.x.x.jar\n亦可添加 hdfs 上的 jar 包，如 add jar hdfs://AAA/BBB\n\n\n\n因为不在 Hive 的默认配置中，所以每次运行都需要执行 add jar 命令\n\n\n建表示例\ncreate external table spark_people_json (  `name` string,  `age` int) ROW FORMAT SERDE &#x27;org.apache.hive.hcatalog.data.JsonSerDe&#x27;STORED AS TEXTFILE;\n\n\nORC和Parquet 的补充对比\n引用[1]做的一个简单实验数据（建表，写数据，SQL 查），量化形象对比\n\n\n\nFormat\n压缩算法\n文件大小\n耗时-秒\n总CPU时间-秒(Cumulative CPU)\n\n\n\n\ntextfile\nNONE\n98.2G\n41.521\n3745.67\n\n\nORC\nZLIB\n18.5G\n31.713\n1107.44\n\n\nORC\nSNAPPY\n28G\n25.59\n1234.89\n\n\nORC\nNONE\n87.6G\n40.571\n1652.23\n\n\nParquet\nNONE\n88G\n33.318\n5440.49\n\n\n\n\n如果数据结构比较扁平，那么用 ORC，如果嵌套较多，用Parquet\nParquet 脱始于 Google Dremel 项目，当初较吸引互联网大厂的眼球\n\n\n日志落地文件仓库\n\n日志数据基本均为可见打印字符\n嵌套复杂数据结构较少\n各业务格式风格不统一且存在变更扩展可能\n业务端的数据应用需求不同（统计分析/导出）\n\n推导出的方案建议\n\n保留业务端的日志原始格式\n数据的使用由业务方自行定制\n无嵌套数据结构，哟给你固定分隔符的文本行，否则用 Json（hive 解析需要额外 jar 包的引入支持）\n类似 PB，Avro，Thrift 及其它格式，亦可以，空间占用率下降的和模式演化能力增强，但可读性下降\n\nFlume\n\nSource --》 Channel --》 Sink 的三级概念设计及数据流向\n\n每级概念均支持多类型实现\n多种数据源，多种 channel，多种 sink 类型\n\n\nSource 中生产出 Event，对 Event 上可以进行自定义（拦截）处理，存入 Channel，Sink 保存数据至指定目的地\nChannel 的功能比较简单，性能瓶颈可能出现在 source 和 sink 两端，更容易出现在 sink 端。Sink 端可以通过成组多配置，来扩容提升处理能力（round robin 或其它负载均衡机制）\nSink 类型支持多种\n\nHive 要求表提前定义，存储格式为 ORC，分区分桶\n\n\n\n结合 Flume 的日志落盘方案\n\n开放字符型日志的上报接口（会自动附加换行）\n\nByte[] 二进制型的接口，视需要后续开放，其放入不同的 kafka topic 中（sink 时不加换行符号）\n\n\nreportLog（String app，int version，String log）\n落盘至 HDFS /应用目录路径/version/日期 对应目录下\n指引业务建表时根据日期进行静态分区，每日脚本运行时，进行分区添加动作\n\n数据推送及消费的流程\nflowchart LR\n    A(日志上报至 Kafka 的对应 topic) --> B(Flume根据 topic 的消息头进行分流)\n    B --> C(sinks至HDFS)\n    C -->D(建Hive表『可选』)\n    D --> E(统计计算onHive/Spark)\n    E --> F(保存数据至 Hive 表『可选』)\n    F --> G(回传数据至业务数据库『可选』)\n数据供业务消费的方案机制\n\n通过 Sqoop 脚本导出 Hive 表对应数据至业务库表\n计算结果直接存入业务数据库表\n计算结果存入 Hbase，业务访问 Hbase\n统计结果推送邮件作为内容查看\n\nSpark的 API\n\nRDD\nDataFrame/DataSet\n\nDataFrame是 SparkSql 在处理数据时的核心数据结构\n类似于数据库的表的形式进行存储，按行组织\n\n\n选择编写 SQL 和编写 Spark 程序（Scala/Java/Python）的依据\n\n类同于用存储过程和普通 SQL 的差别\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRDD\n非结构化的数据处理，可对数据进行最基本的转换，处理，控制\n\n\n\nDataFrame/DataSet\n提供类似数据表的抽象，处理数据上对数据分析人员更有熟悉感\nDataSet 可看作是编译时类型检查版本的 DataFrame\n\n\n\n引用参考\n1.github orc与 parquet 对比 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"大航海前奏-古国交往","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E8%88%AA%E6%B5%B7%E5%89%8D%E5%A5%8F-%E5%8F%A4%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A4%E5%BE%80.html","content":"\n以大航海时代为时间节点，世界史可分为两部分：在此之前，世界史主要是欧亚大陆的历史，而此之后，才是全世界的历史。撒哈拉以南的非洲，因大沙漠的阻隔，文明发展相对滞缓，欧洲航海者到来时，刚刚步入铁器时代，且越往南，因越远离欧亚文明中心，发展越落后。美洲因为孤悬海外，导致文明发展亦及其缓慢，欧洲人能迅速政府那里正是因为文明代差太大。澳大利亚，更是被称为被文明遗忘的角落，甚至一度没把这里的土著当成人类。一开始欧洲人将文明发展的差异归因于文化和人种，但其实根本原因正是地理。\n\n历史地理是中外史家必备的治史密钥，最能体现历史地理对治史的重要性的莫过于战争，任何一场战争都离不开指挥者对地形地貌的利用。如果对战时的地理环境没有足够的认识，历史作品就无法复原战争原貌，认识其背后的历史内涵。\n\n\n东：丝绸之路\n\n西域\n帕米尔高原\n丝绸之路开辟于西汉，当时世界上只有中国能生产丝绸，同时代陆路运输的成本很高，高到如果不运昂贵的丝绸就会无利可图。这也是为啥用丝绸之路来命名的原因。\n帕米尔高原山体高大，平均海拔4500米以上，要翻越帕米尔高原就要面临生死考验，一到冬天，大雪封山。汉人要前往中亚，如果不想翻越帕米尔高原的话，最好是走天山以北。\n\n北道南道\n事实上汉人在出了玉门关后，在天山南麓会遇到两个比较富庶的地方，一个是哈密（哈密瓜产地），一个是吐鲁番（盛产葡萄），盆地能蓄积附近山顶融化的雪水。天山山脉在吐鲁番盆地西北断开了一个口子，沿着这条裂谷往西北前进，入口处是达坂城，出口处是乌鲁木齐（汉时属&lt;东且弥&gt;国），今天达坂城属乌鲁木齐一个区，乌鲁木齐之所以成为新疆首府，正是因为它扼守南北两疆的通道。\n在准格尔盆地西部，有很多出口通往中亚，但最好的路线是过了乌鲁木齐后，沿着依莲哈比尔尕(ga^3)山【蒙古语义：花斑状的肋形山】北麓走，受惠于雪山融水的滋养，有不少绿洲城市可提供补给。到达艾比湖后，折向西南，沿婆罗科努山的山谷到达赛里木湖，在赛里木湖西南角，又有一条狭小山谷通向伊利河谷，这里就是今天的霍尔果斯所在。\n如上是丝绸之路的主要路线，在不同朝代会有不同，如汉代一开始控制南疆，北疆还是小国林立。伊犁河谷和巴尔喀什湖以南都在乌孙手上，那时丝绸之路就需翻越帕米尔高原了。唐代中央政府在西域统治范围更大更强，北疆线路才成为主要线路。\n中亚斯坦\n进入伊犁河谷，就进入中亚了。从地理上讲，就是西起里海，东到帕米尔高原，北至西伯利亚，南抵伊朗高原的部分。此地深处欧亚大陆腹地，最大特点就是气候干燥，造就极具特色的历史和人文。北部是草原，中部以荒漠为主，东部靠着雪山，山脚下滋养出一个个绿洲。因为欧洲地形相对平坦，从大西洋过来的暖湿空气可顺着西风带一直吹到这里，遇到帕米尔高原和天山山脉，形成降雨，所以此片区远离海洋却没有全变成沙漠。但另一方面，北冰洋空气干冷不能带来降水，给这里的冬天只带来低温。\n中亚一带主要生活的是草原游牧部落，经常被抢劫，且缺少定居点，沿线的补给和市场都成问题，所以更多是折向西南人口众多区域进发。\n\n乌兹别克斯坦人口最多，三千多万。哈萨克斯坦富有但是冷清，乌兹别克斯坦贫穷但是热闹，土库曼斯坦沙雕而又中二，剩下的吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦处在山区与中国密切接壤一直在那边自娱自乐\n\n\n\n乌兹别克斯坦占据了中亚最富庶的传统农耕区中的最好几个，所以他人口也是最多的，想比较于其它中亚兄弟，历史上乌兹别克斯坦可以说是农耕区，其他地方传统上是游牧经济为主。\n在二战之前，乌哈两国人口相差不大，但由于大饥荒和二战时塔吉克参战率高，人口增长比乌兹别克人缓慢了很多，这二十多年时间里差距拉大了。\n\n伊朗高原\n\n过了中亚，就进入了伊朗高原，除伊朗外，还包括今天阿富汗的绝大部分和巴基斯坦大部分，海拔900~1500米，面积比青藏高原还大，名义上是高原，实际是个山间盆地，四周高山围绕，中间却相对平坦。伊朗高原是一个非常独特的地理单元，同中亚类似，是草原荒漠气候，适合放牧。四周有高山阻隔，有效防止外来攻击，占据高地，对周边地区有居高临下的优势。东有开伯尔山口，直插印度河平原；北有马什哈德，可进入中亚图兰低地；南有阿巴斯港，可进入波斯湾；西有哈马丹，可进入两河流域。自然成为帝国的诞生摇篮，促成波斯帝国的崛起。\n雅利安人原本是生活在乌拉尔山南部一个古老游牧民族，后迁到阿姆河和锡尔河之间，公元前14世纪，开始南下，一支通过开伯尔山口进入南亚次大陆，摧毁了古印度，统治了那里皮肤黝黑的达罗毗荼人，并建立种姓制度，另一支进入伊朗高原，建立了波斯帝国，摧毁了巴比伦王国和古埃及，四大文明古国，三个都亡在雅利安人之手。\n来自中亚的商队从马什哈德山口进入伊朗高原后，可南下印度，可经阿巴斯刚进印度洋，可西经小亚细亚半岛（土耳其）去希腊，最主要的线路是西经哈马丹到达西亚最富庶的地方美索不达米亚平原。\n两河流域\n两河（底格里斯河和幼发拉底河）流域在今伊拉克境内，也是古巴比伦所在地。古巴比伦能成为人类文明发祥地，一是因为这里产粮，二是处于欧亚大陆十字路口，商贸一开富得流油。但因为这里地处平原，无险可守，逐步成为周边民族抢夺的焦点。虽然伊拉克地处古巴比伦国的地盘上，但伊拉克人与古巴比伦人几乎没有任何关系。\n商队到了两河流域，基本就到了终点，溯两河而上，到达地中海东岸安条克，通过陆路到达君士坦丁堡和开罗，或者水路把货物送到亚历山大港，雅典或威尼斯，热那亚，罗马…\n古国的区别\n古巴比伦和古埃及有一点与中国不同，中国要发展农业，首先要解决水患问题，但这二者不需要大禹这样的人，他们河水定期泛滥，在沿河两岸留下厚厚的淤泥，是很好的农耕土壤。古印度也类似，印度河流域流经沙漠，河水泛滥会留下肥沃土壤，不会形成沼泽。早期人类行为只会影响地表植被，对大气候不会产生明显影响。所以在中国，要想保证农业收成，必须和上下游人一条心，甚至南北方一条心，这也是客观促成中国成为一个统一国家的原因之一。\n海上丝绸之路\n当时苏伊士运河并没有开通，加上海风有季节性，海上点对点航行充满凶险，所以早期海运并不占绝对优势。从中国到东南亚的商船装载主要是丝绸，瓷器，茶叶，但从东南亚到印度的商船就装满了各种香料，如豆蔻，丁香，胡椒，肉桂…，没有这些香料，欧洲人一日三餐都难以下咽。\n蒙古人的影响\n地球最宽广的草原，欧亚大草原，东部干燥，西部湿润，所以逐水草而居的游牧民族总是由东部向西部迁移，而气候更恶劣的东部草原上的游牧民族相对战斗力更强，因而西部游牧民族总是受压不断西迁。欧亚大草原原本部族林立，各山头征伐不断，当蒙古人第一次把草原统一时，丝绸之路变得畅通无比，欧亚间商贸也异常发达，但当蒙古人落败后，草原又回到互相征伐的状态，丝绸之路不再畅通，没有丝绸的衣服缺少光鲜，没有香料的饭菜难以下咽，欧洲的贵族，生活已经离不开东方各种产品，那个时候，欧洲人对东方人生活充满憧憬。\n西：地中海欧洲\n巴尔干半岛\n\n在土耳其语中，巴尔干就是山地的意思，山地面积占到半岛总面积的70%，只有东部沿海一带，以及部分山间盆地，有一些敌视较平整的低地平原。因而难以降生大一统王朝，进而孕育强势文明国家，让自身免受外界威胁。周围也没有有效的地理屏障，南面的地中海气候不恶劣，不能阻挡古典时代敌方海军，东面的黑海也是屏障有限的内海。北部是广袤的匈牙利大草原，与遍地蛮族的欧洲内陆只隔着多瑙河，萨瓦河，外来势力进入巴尔干，难度并不大。换句话说，在没有外界势力插足下，半岛本就四分五裂。历史上长期处于各大势力角逐范围，希腊-马其顿与波斯帝国，罗马与日耳曼–斯拉夫人博弈前沿。随着伊斯兰势力崛起，又成了宗教争夺的对象。\n\n巴尔干是中欧封建大国“征东”要道，扼守欧亚大陆入口，控制着贸易路线，其战略价值吸引了历史上各个帝国的竞争和争夺。\n这里也有肥沃的土地，温暖的气候，适宜农业生产，古代就存在较为发达的农业聚居地带，马其顿王国就以这里作为发展基础向四周扩散。古代巴尔先受古希腊和罗马帝国这些地中海文明统治，中世纪先后被拜占庭帝国和奥斯曼土耳其帝国控制。尤其是土耳其突厥人控制并压迫小民族，那时抗争最为动荡，在一战后，趁奥斯曼帝国开始病，塞尔维亚，克罗地亚人，斯拉夫人联合起来要了土耳其人在巴尔干的命，建立了一个新王国即南斯拉夫王国，但随着铁腕领袖逝去，冷战结束，立即出现国家解体和民族冲突。\n铁托在民族问题上也犯下了巨大错误，为以后的科索沃危机埋下伏笔，他不仅让塞尔维亚这个工业最强的加盟国和其它五个国家完全平等，还让科索沃实行自治。科索沃是塞尔维亚人起源地，在大部分塞尔维亚人心中地位崇高，而铁托当政时期科索沃主体民族已经换成了阿尔巴尼亚人，两个民族和国家地区的祸根就此埋下。\n\n巴尔干地处欧洲与亚洲交界地带，既是交通要道，又是多民族杂居，多种文化混合集中之地，也是三大宗教影响力交界之地，还是主要大国势力范围交锋之所。地处多种主要文明分界线，造成前南地区复杂的民族矛盾，宗教冲突和文化差异，更由于历史原因造成无法和解的对立，前南地区难以长期维持和平，动荡局面总是周期性的出现。因为巴尔干火药桶的称呼，该地区现在更喜欢用东南欧的称谓来替代旧的叫法。\n南部斯拉夫人群体，拥有完全不同的文化体系和宗教信仰，其间的差别远大于西欧各国间的文化差异。塞尔维亚是前南地区人口最多的国家，信仰东正教，与同为东正教的俄罗斯和希腊联系紧密。同信仰东正教的黑山人在前南解体后，与塞先后组成南联盟和塞黑，但终因民族差异而分道扬镳。\n马其顿人也信奉东正教，但历史上亲希腊与塞尔维亚比较疏远。克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚信仰天主教，受德国等周边国家影响较大。\n阿尔巴尼亚和波斯尼亚人都信奉伊斯兰教。三大宗教在此激烈碰撞，无法融合。\n\n希腊半岛\n欧洲最早的文明，受到古巴比伦和古埃及的双重影响。希腊半岛位于巴尔干半岛南部，山峰林立，几乎看不到平地，生活在半岛上的人们一直很苦闷，故在神话故事里，常看到某王子去放羊，就是因为这里不产粮，生活条件很艰苦。地中海气候，是13种气候中唯一的雨热不同期气候类型，农作物生长离不开的两样东西，水和热，在这里是分离的。故希腊不产粮，但有两个特产：葡萄和橄榄，这两样东西都耐旱，山地也可以种植。葡萄酒和橄榄油都很好保存，是很好的商品。好在不远的埃及尼罗河两岸就是产粮区，再远一点可以到两河流域与苏美尔人交换粮食。\n幸运的是，每到夏天的时候，地中海风平浪静，不需要很高的航海技术就可以穿过。于是希腊人和埃及人和苏美尔人有了交流。有了交流，就有了文明的传播，显然希腊人不能照着埃及人和苏美尔人一般学习农耕，也不能学游牧民族去抢，风险大朝不保夕，基于世代出海经商为生的传统，发展出一套自己的商业文明，或者说商业海洋文明。因为粮食是必需品，一旦希腊人以次充好动歪点子，埃及人下回就不做生意了，没有葡萄酒喝埃及人照样生活，故诚实守信是商业文明的根本。\n今天全世界拿橄榄代表和平，也跟这场商贸有一定关系。希腊如没有橄榄，也只能学游牧民族去抢，不偷不抢，靠贸易换粮食，这就是和平。为什么不用酒，因为酒不是普通百姓能消费起的东西，远无橄榄油那样家喻户晓。\n生意人不需像农民那样一年忙到头，葡萄和橄榄树平时基本不需打理，所以希腊人空闲时间比较多，仰望星空，思考灵感突发。在希腊文明时期，中国正处春秋战国时代，先贤也在思考，但中国哲学家思考的是人和人之间的关系，没办法，农耕文明人口密度大，不处理好人与人间的关系，会出乱子。希腊商业文明人口少，地形复杂交通不便，平常也见不着几个人，故更多思考的是个人的问题，进而上升到对世界本质的思考。\n\n希腊并不是一个国家，而是一个地域文化符号，城邦林立，以雅典和斯巴达为代表。雅典实行民主政治，斯巴达实际是有限的王权政治。其它小邦多依附于这两个城邦。和现代民主政治中的代议制不同，雅典实行直接民主，比较麻烦，好在人不多，且不是所有人都有公民权（妇孺，奴隶没有），也不是所有公民都经常参会。即使这样，公民大会最少也有几千人参加，经常开的五百人议事会也有四五百人参加，在公元前6世纪没有麦克风没有便宜的纸和笔传递文件，几千人几百人一起开会是什么结果（效率+混乱）。\n意大利（亚平宁）半岛\n\n意大利北部波河平原超过了关中渭河平原，足以孕育一个农业帝国。波河平原北部是阿尔卑斯山，其雪山融水也是波河平原不缺水的先天条件。平原南部是长1400公里的亚平宁山脉，在山脉两边靠近地中海的沿海地带，有一些比较小的冲积平原，这些地方受希腊文明影响，早期也建立了一些城邦国家，如罗马。\n罗马人要前往埃及和两河流域做生意远不如希腊人方便，但他们有耕地，可自己种粮食。农耕文明人口增长很快，耕地不够了需要对外扩张，逐步占领了半岛。罗马扩张到波河平原后碰到高大的阿尔卑斯山，于是调转方向，目光放在地中海几个岛上，西西里岛，撒丁岛，科西嘉岛，可惜这些岛有其主人，就是迦太基人。\n灭国迦太基（Carthage）\n\n\n当时地中海被两大势力控制：东部是希腊人，西部是迦太基人。迦太基是腓尼基人在北非西部（今突尼斯)建立的国家，腓尼基人（原意为紫红色，出产紫红色颜料）原本生活在地中海东岸（今黎巴嫩和叙利亚沿海一带），后受到亚述，巴比伦等国积压，一部分迁到北非，向生活在那里的柏柏尔人借了块地建国。腓尼基人是出色的商人，擅长航海，在频繁的商贸活动中，腓尼基人经常需要书写，记账，于是他们参考埃及人和苏美尔人的文字，创造了简单又方便书写的22个腓尼基字母，这22个字母传到希腊，被稍加改造，就成了希腊字母，进而成为罗马和拉丁字母的源头，故可以说腓尼基字母才是欧洲文字之母。\n\n腓尼基人和希腊人一样，都是商业文明，都吧目光放在海上，为了争夺海权经常发生冲突，谁也没留意到罗马从一个部落发展成了一个大国。辉煌一时的希腊在逐渐帅落后倍北方的马其顿人征服，在亚历山大国帝国土崩瓦解后，希腊辉煌也一去不返。此时罗马在地中海的唯一对手就是迦太基。\n在公元前3世纪至前2世纪，罗马和迦太基进行了三次战争，最终迦太基被灭国，被同化，腓尼基人消失在历史长河中。迦太基是海权国家，罗马擅于陆战，第一次战争中于是罗马在舰队上装有尖钩的“接舷吊桥”（corvus），宽1.2公尺、长10.9公尺，两侧设有小栏杆，当敌舰驶近时迅速放下吊桥钩住对方船舰，相当现代的舰桥，在甲板上展开陆战而赢得胜利。第二次战争中腓尼基将领汉尼拔创造了军事胜利，但接下来有战略失误，最终还是被罗马反攻。\n治理之困\n罗马人在消灭迦太基后进入巴尔干半岛，希腊也并入罗马的版图。罗马帝国在扩张道路上始终没有解决一个问题，就是如何统治一个面积如此广的帝国，同时期的东方，秦朝实行郡县制，用武力实现统一，但很不稳定，到了汉朝，武帝独尊儒术，从思想上解决了人们对大一统的认可，又创立察举制，选拔专业官员管理国家，从而实现中央集权。而罗马帝国没有解决这些问题，内部各种势力错综复杂，各处征服的土地也有相当的自主权，随时有土崩瓦解的危险。\n罗马的政体是雅典和斯巴达的结合体，即使在帝国时期，执政官的权利也和中国皇帝相差万里，且执政官职位不能世袭，不管是王政时代，共和时代还是帝国时代，内核还是权力制衡的三权分立，制衡的好处是公民相对自由，创造了古典文明。欧洲人的爵位是层层分封的，中国的公侯伯子男是由周天子分封的。欧洲人说：国王的国王不是我的国王。国王和封建领主之间也是一种契约关系，国王做不到一言九鼎。各大领主组成议会，参与国家的治理，左右国王的一举一动，总之一句话，欧洲统治者的权力是有限的。\n因为各地都有一定自治权，罗马帝国又没实现中国那样的中央集权，统治这么大一片土地难度相当大，终于迎来罗马帝国的东西分裂。\n匈奴西去\n汉朝人并未将匈奴斩草除根，最后他们还有很大的势力，只是按中国史书记载，他们西去后就不知所踪了。但只要一看地图就知道，匈奴是游牧民族，逐水草而居，去向只会有一个，就是沿着欧亚大草原一路向西，先到中亚，再到欧洲。\n欧洲早期文明集中在沿地中海一带。在阿尔卑斯山以北，是广袤的平原，分为西欧平原，波德平原和东欧平原。在西欧平原（今法国一带）居住着高卢（凯尔特人一支）人，波德平原居住者日耳曼人，东欧平原（今俄罗斯西部和乌克兰）居住着斯拉夫人。这三支被当时的罗马帝国称为三大蛮族。虽然欧洲平原多，但维度高（阿尔卑斯和哈尔滨的维度相当），北大西洋暖流影响的主要是西欧和北欧，所以早期农耕技术还不发达的时候，欧洲平原发展不出农耕文明，只能是游牧民族的天堂。\n匈奴人的到来引起欧洲草原上的连锁反应，当匈奴人击败东哥特人（日耳曼人一支）时，其它日耳曼人（西哥特人，汪达尔人，昂撒人，法兰克人等）为了躲避进攻，像潮水一样涌入罗马帝国境内，西罗马帝国在这些蛮族入侵下，终于挺不住灭亡了。\n教会的蓬勃\n日耳曼人没希腊人那么多文化，也不识字，一开始烧杀抢掠，但后来发现抢劫不如收税，于是想效仿罗马人建立国家。但他们多数人是文盲，知识掌握在教会手里，于是日耳曼人向教会请教，欧洲大地一时涌现众多日耳曼国家，其中以法兰克王国为代表，鼎盛时期占了欧洲西部大片土地。后来法兰克王国一分为三，西法兰克，中法兰克，东法兰克，分别奠定了法国，意大利和德国的雏形。\n罗马帝国衰落时，执政者为了加强控制，曾将基督教定为国教（镇压了多年民间一直有生命力，且其教义主要以个人去除欲望，宣扬和谐，逐渐被当局接受），但教权一直控制在政府权力之下。这次日耳曼人像学生一样向教会请教怎么建国，教会从生活，法律，宗教方面对日耳曼实施全方位改造，并搞加冕仪式。形式上最高统治者变成了教皇，但并不真正掌握世俗权力，但手握对世俗权力的控制，重要是达到在思想文化方面的控制，以保证教会的利益。\n东罗马地拖凭借独特的地理位置在蛮族入侵下幸存下来，但无力收复故土，最后和日耳曼人达成协议，不会西征，专心对付北边的斯拉夫人和东边的波斯人。两个教皇的矛盾，也造成天主教和东正教的撕裂。\n东罗马夹在欧洲和中东之间，一直面对着来自东方的巨大压力。波斯帝国衰落后，7世纪，一支来自半岛的阿拉伯人兴起，依靠着伊斯兰教的力量，席卷整个中东，建立了横跨亚，欧，非的阿拉伯帝国。伊斯兰教和基督教同发源于犹太教，但这两支从一开始就势同水火，可参见亚伯拉罕诸教的差异。也正因为东西方通道的阻塞，导致了近代地理大发现，人类大探险—大航海时代故事将拉开帷幕。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史","地理"]},{"title":"大语言模型LLM","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html","content":"\nChatGPT\n\nGPT:Generative Pre-trained Transformer\n科技部长的金句：踢足球都是盘点，射门，但是要做到梅西那么好也不容易\n\n惊喜与惊醒\n大语言模型的效果好到令人咋舌，我们距离LLM的认知和发展理念，距离世界最先进的想法，差得有点远\n\nBert出现后1~2年间，国内追赶技术很快，也提出了一些改进模型\n分水岭在GPT-3，即为2020年中，体现了LLM应往何处去的发展理念，全球看中的人很少，梯队明显\n\n包括Google在内，对于LLM发展理念的理解，都落后OpenAI一个身位（半年到一年的时间）\n国内可能落后2年左右\n\n\n\n\n鹰酱的风格是进化论模式，各个方向上各个公司都搞低成本试探进攻，让企业家去承担试错成本。进化是允许犯错的，甚至是进化不可少的前提\n\n最难的事情 : 方向可行性，已经被蹚出来了（此正是技术最难的一点）\n\n\n我方堆资源，集中力量办大事的优势可以发挥\n\n\n商业的竞争，开源的平替也在出现（甚至可能是故意的泄露）\n\n\n老美限制我们，软件上挡不住，那就硬件上挡\n\n\n\n\n芯片型号\n售价（美元）\n售价（人民币）-- 22年汇率还有优势\n供应中国情况\n\n\n\n\nV100\n10000\n69000\n\n\n\nA800\n12000\n82800\n缺货\n\n\nA100\n15000\n103500\n断供\n\n\nH100\n36500\n251820\n断供\n\n\n\n\n\n\nA800是A100阉割特供版，计算性能相似，数据传输速度降低30%，影响AI集群训练速度和效果，还缺货，一次只能采购数百片\n\nNLP研究范式转变\n从深度学习到两阶段训练模型\n深度学习期\n\n\n由大量改进LSTM模型及少量改进的CNN模型作为典型的特征抽取器\n\n\n以Sequence to Sequence（或叫encoder-decoder亦可）+Attention作为各种具体任务典型的总体技术框架\n\n\n在这些技术下，研究目标归纳为如何有效增加模型层深或模型参数容量。就是往encoder-decoder里不断叠加更深的LSTM或CNN层。\n但受限于有限的训练数据总量（不够匹配模型容量增加）和特征抽取器有限的表达能力（不能吸收数据里蕴含的知识），最终这条路径相较于飞深度学习方法并没有出现碾压式的优势\n\n三元或四元甚至更高阶的模型是不是能覆盖所有语言现象。答案是不行\n上下文之间相关性可能跨度非常大，甚至可以从一个段落到另一个段落\n\n两阶段训练大模型\nBert和GPT模型出现后，在学术研究和工业应用角度看，都带来了一个技术飞跃，子领域的技术方法和框架日趋统一\n\nBert出现一年左右，技术栈就基本全线收敛到此二位上。\n图像领域预训练模型（vision transformer）应用到下游任务，带来的效果收益，远不如Bert/GPT应用在NLP下游任务那么显著，要是蹚通了，图像处理的各个子研究领域可能也会逐步消失，直接完成终端任务\n\n带来的影响\n中间任务消亡\n中文分词，词性标注，命名实体识别（NER），句法分析，指代消解，语义Parser等，这类任务不是解决任务的实际需求，但作为解决任务的中间阶段或辅助阶段存在。而用户其实只关心最终具体任务有没有干好。\n通过大量的预训练，Bert/GPT已经把这些中间任务作为语言学特征，吸收到了Transformer参数里，无需对中间过程专门建模，可端到端直接解决最终任务。\n\n在技术发展的早期阶段，很难一步做好有难度的最终任务，科研人员就把难题分而治之\n\n技术路线统一\n最终任务分类：NLU+NLG\nNLU：文本分类，句子相似性计算，情感倾向判断，意图识别等，都是分类任务。\n\n统一到了Bert为代表的“双向语言模型预训练”+应用fine-tuning的模式\n\nNLG：聊天机器人，翻译，文本摘要，问答系统等\n\n统一到了GPT-2为代表的“自回归语言模型（从左到右单向语言模型）+zero/few shot prompt”的模式\n\n绝大多数人当时都低估了GPT这条路线的潜力，视线中心都聚焦到了Bert模式上。\n预训练到通用人工智能\n\n从GPT-3以后，尚在加速演进\n\nChatGPT\nChatGPT是触发这次范型转换的关键点，在InstructGPT出现前，LLM其实出于过渡期。\n\nChatGPT最惊艳和最大的贡献是基本实现了让LLM适配人的命令表达方式，给出了很好的解决方案，增加了易用性和用户体验\n证明了可以去直接追求理想的LLM模型，未来的技术趋势应是越来越大的LLM模型，增加预训练数据的多样性\n\n\n\n预训练模型早期，人们普遍更看好Bert一些\n\nfine-tuning方式解决下游任务，Bert&gt;GPT\nFine-tuning效果占优的领域是因为领域训练数据量大，从数据安全角度，fine-tuning还没那么快消失，但已经不是潮流了\n\n\n\n随着技术发展，目前规模最大的LLM模型，几乎清一色类似GPT-3的模式，背后有一定的必然性\n\n\nNLG表现形式可兼容NLU，反之则不行。分类问题可转换成让LLM生成对应类别字符串，Google的T5模型，形式上就统一了NLU+NLG的外在表现形式。\n\n\n\nZero/few shot promot方式做好任务，采取GPT模式\n\n数据是海量的，要吸收知识，需非常多的参数来存储只是，必是巨无霸模型\n模型规模巨大，有能力做出及改动这个模型参数的机构必然少\n就算把模型开源出来，中小机构和个人也无力部署，更不用说用fine-tuning这种模式去修改模型参数了\nLLM as Service的模式运行，超大模型一定会走向AGI（人造通用智能）\nChatGPT用Instruct取代了prompting，由此带来新的技术范式转换\n\n\n\n\n\nChatGPT改变了GPT-3.5什么？\n\nGPT-1学习资料5G，参数1.17亿\nGPT-2学习资料40G，参数15亿\nGPT-3学习资料45T，参数1750亿\n\nGPT有了海量知识，但回答形式和内容却不受约束，因为它知道的太多了。见到了一个人几辈子都读不完的资料，会随意联想，像一只脑容量超级大的鹦鹉，如何指挥它成了一个目标。\nChatGPT注入了人类偏好知识，什么是好的回答，什么是不好的。如详细回答是好的，带有歧视内容的回答是不好的，人类对回答质量好坏的偏好，用对话模板去矫正其开卷有益时学到的不规范习惯（跟教鹦鹉说话一个道理），通过reward-model反馈给LLM数据，得到一个懂得人话，比较礼貌的LLM。\n\n用人工专门写好的优质对话范例让GPT去接龙\n\nLLM的知识构成\n\nTransformer是足够强大的特征抽取器，尚不需做特别的改进，那它学到了什么？\n\n语言类知识和世界知识\n\n语言类知识是指语法，词性，句法，语言等有助于人类或机器理解的自然语言知识\n世界知识指发生在这个世界上的一些真实事件和常识性知识\n\n对于Bert类型的语言模型来说，只用1000w到1亿单词的语料，就能学好句法语义等语言学知识；事实类知识要更多的训练数据。\n随着Transformer模型层深的增加，能学到的知识数据以指数级增加，把模型看作是以模式参数体现的隐式知识图谱，一点也不违和。\n如何存取知识\n\n多头注意力（MHA）占了参数总量的1/3，用于计算单词或知识间的相关强度，对全局信息进行集成，建立知识间的联系，大概率不会存储具体的知识点\nFFN（Feed Forward Network）结构占了剩余2/3，承担主体知识的存储。FFN的输入层其实是某个单词对应的MHA的输出结果Embedding，将整个句子有关的输入上下文集成到一起的Embedding，代表整个输入句子的整体信息\nTransformer低层对句子表层模式做出反应，高层对语义模式做出反应。也就是低层FFN存储语法，句法等表层知识；中层和高层存储语义及事实概念知识\n\n\nLLM的规模效应\n目前效果最好的LLM模型，参数规模大都超过了千亿（100B），如OpenAI的GPT-3规模175B，Google的LaMDA规模540B，华为盘古模型200B，百度文心260B，随着模型不断增长，会发生什么？\n\n\n研究证明，越大的LLM模型学习效率越高，学到了更多知识，任务效果更好。多数NLU任务，都是知识密集型任务，近两年都在模型规模增长下获得了极大的效果提升。\n\n\n模型规模是解锁LLM新能力的关键，出现某种涌现能力带来意想不到的精彩，如chatGPT的推理能力。\n\n思维链是典型的增强LLM推理能力的技术，流利性也是在规模上得以解决的。\n上下文学习里出现的涌现效应，等价于隐式的微调，但如何有效尚未搞明白\n\n\n\n\n\n想出现涌现能力，模型规模大小和具体任务有一定的绑定关系\n\n图表第一行的3位数加法任务，模型只要达到 13B（130亿参数），就可以具备涌现能力，但是对倒数第二行的 Word in Context Benchmark任务而言，目前证明，只有540B 大小的模型才可以做到这点。我们只能说，就In Context Learning而言，如果模型达到 100B， 大多数任务可以具备涌现能力。\n把模型做小会影响LLM的涌现能力么\nDeepMind 2021年发表的模型 Chinchilla，这个模型目前做各种任务的效果，和 540B大小的PaLM 基本相当。Chinchilla的思路是给更多的数据，但是把模型规模做小[4]。\nChinchilla模型大小只有 70B，是Gopher的四分之一，但是付出的代价是训练数据总量，是Gopher的四倍，所以基本思路是通过放大训练数据量，来缩小模型规模。\n在以后训练模型的时候，可以考虑 先增加训练数据 ，降低模型参数量，把模型做小(保险起见，不应小于70B)，先把模型参数利用充分，在这个基础上，再继续增加数据，并推大模型规模。\n第二个小模型代表是 Meta 发布的开源模型 LLaMA，它的做法其实很好理解，本质上就是开源的 Chinchilla，它的思路是完全遵照 Chinchilla 来做的，增加训练数据，并把模型规模做小\nTransformer的稀疏化\n目前规模最大的LLM中，相当比例的模型采取了稀疏结构，如GPT-3，PaLM，好处是它可以极大减少LLM的训练时间和在线推理时间\n有研究表明，标准的Dense Transformer在训练和推理时，它本身也是稀疏激活的，既然如此，不如直接迁移到稀疏模型\n随着模型越大，稀疏模型带来的收益越明显\n人机交互\n\n从In Context Learning到Instruct理解\n\nZero shot prompt是Instruct的早期叫法，内涵一致，具体做法不同\n\n早期Zero shot prompt实际上就是不知道怎么表达一个任务才对，就换不同的单词或句子，反复尝试好的任务表达方式。这种方式已经被证明是在拟合训练数据的分布\nInstruct做法则是给定命令表达语句，试图让LLM理解它，尽管表面都是任务的表述，但思路是不同的\n\nIn Context Learning和Few shot prompt意思类似，就是给LLM几个示例做范本，然后让LLM解决新问题\n\nIn Context Learning也可以理解为某项任务的描述（用例子来具象表达任务命令），只是Instruct是一种更抽象的描述形式\n\n\nLLM用来生成Instruct效果很不错，在一些任务上超过人类的表现，所以Prompt engineer也是一个不长久的职位\n\n\nFine-tuning和In Context Learning表面看似都提供了一些例子给LLM，但两者有质上的差别\n\nFine-tuning拿这些例子当训练数据，用反向传播去修正LLM的模型参数\n但In Context Learning只是拿出例子让LLM看了一眼，并没有根据例子去修正参数，就要求它去预测新例子（正是In Context Learning的神奇之处，尚无清晰的原理解释）\n\n\n\n如何增强LLM的推理能力\n咱们通常不会因为一个人单靠记忆力强，就说这个人很聪明，还要看他是否有强的推理能力，推理能力是智力水平更佳的标准。强大推理能力也是让用户认可LLM的心理基础。\n\n推理能力的本质是综合运用很多知识，去推导出新的知识或新结论\n\n在LLM推理方面相关的工作和研究，可归为4大类\n\n\n基于Prompt的方法，通过合适的提示语或文本，更好地激发LLM本身就具有的推理能力，google在这个方面做了大量很有成效的工作\n\n更好的展示出能力的技术方法，直接在问题上追加辅助推理Prompt，在众多领域都很有效\n\n第一阶段在提问的问题上追加“Let’s think step by step”这句提示语，LLM会输出具体的推理过程；第二阶段，在第一阶段的问题后，拼接LLM输出的具体推理过程，并再追加Prompt。如此简单的操作，却可以大幅增加LLM在各项推理任务中的效果，比如在数学推理测试集GSM8K上，加上提示语后，推理准确率直接从原先的10.4%提升到了40.4%，可谓神奇。（猜测预训练数据里面存在大量的此种数据，提示语激发LLM模糊得“回忆”起某些例子的推导步骤）\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCOT\n标准的COT由人工来写推理步骤，而Zero-shot COT大概是通过提示语，激活了记忆中某些包含推理步骤的示例。人工给出的示例，准确性是有保障的，所以自然标准CoT效果会更好。\n\n最早的COT概念文章发表于22年1月，虽然做法简单，但应用COT后模型推理能力得到了巨大的提升\n\n意思是让LLM明白一个道理：在推理过程中，步子不要迈的太大，化大问题为小问题，积小胜为大胜\nCOT提出不久，很快在22年3月，一种被称为“Self-Consistency”的改进技术继续助力提升准确率，它要求LLM输出多个不同的推理过程和答案，然后用投票的方式选出最佳答案，将GSM8K测试集准确率提高到83%左右。简答的方法往往蕴含着深刻的道理。虽然COT起效仍有黑盒的味道。\n\n\n\nLeast-to-most prompting，应用分治的思想，将一个复杂的推理问题，分解成若干更易解决的子问题，应证了COT的工作模式。要解决Final Q问题，先把原始问题和Prompt交给LLM，让LLM给出最终问题的前置子问题sub Q，然后用原始问题拼接子问题sub Q及答案，再去问LLM最终问题Final Q\n\n\n在预训练过程中引入程序代码，和文本一起参与训练，这应是OpenAI实践出来的思路\n\n体现出一种通过增强多样性的训练数据，来直接增强推理能力的思路\n为何预训练模型可以从代码中获得额外的推理能力，确切原因未知。可能开始只是尝试从文本生成代码，而代码中往往包含很多文本注释，本质上类似于预训练模型做了两种数据的多模态对齐工作\n支持越来越多的任务类型，主要是通过增加LLM预训练数据的多样性来达成\n\n\n\n算力约束下的最优培养策略\n假设用于训练LLM的算力总预算（如多少GPU天）给定，是应多增加数据量，减少模型参数呢，还是说数据量和模型规模同时增加，减少训练步数呢？\n OpenAI选择了同时增加训练数据量和模型参数，但采用早停策略来减少训练步数的方案\n\n且优先增加模型参数，然后才是模型数据量\n假如算力预算增加了10倍，那么应增加5.5倍的模型参数量，1.8倍的训练数据量，此时模型效果最佳\n单调增加模型参数，固定住训练数据量，这个做法也是不对的，限制了模型的潜力\n\nAGI？\n不少人批评大模型本质上只是统计学，预测下一个 token，就像随机模仿人类说话的鹦鹉。但大家体验到的事实告知我们不是这样，训练压缩了文本生成过程的某种表示，文本实际上是对世界的投影。\n\n问题后的下一个 token，便是答案的第一个 token。大模型的训练过程可能就跟大脑学习过程类似，就像你在预测视觉的下一帧，听觉的下一个声音。很好地预测下一个 token，意味着了解创造该 token 的深层现实：预测即压缩，压缩就是智能的来源。大模型做的就是寻找共同结构，使用共同结构编码事物，这样效率更高。甚至它有能力理解数百种人类还未见过的类比，这就是创造力的来源。\n来自 hilton 和\n如果一个人轻信别人告诉他的一切，就太致命了。不轻信他人，而是尝试将信息融入自己对世界的理解框架中，如果融不进去，就拒绝，这是很好的策略。如果试图吸收被告知的一切，最终会得到一个非常模糊的框架，相信一切，但是没有用处。应拥有一个坚定的世界观，并试图摆弄输入的事实以适应你的观点。\n为何是OpenAI\n胜在一开始就自我定位比较高，要做出人物无关超大型LLM，以生成一切的方式解决各种实际问题，且应能听懂人类的命令。不受外界干扰态度坚定不移。\n\nGPT-1比Bert出来更早，Bert证明了双向语言模型对于很多NLU任务，效果比GPT这种单向语言模型更好，尽管如此，GPT-2也没有切换技术路线，且开始尝试zero/few shot prompt。因效果比Bert+fine-tuning差的比较远，所以大家都没太当回事，甚至不理解它为什么要始终坚持走单向语言模型的路线。\nGPT-3展示出不错的zero/few shot prompt能力，后面技术差距从这里拉开，再往后是InstructGPT和ChatGPT\n\n\nOpenAI的股权设计很特别，不受任何股东制约，投资者没有控制权，协议上是一种债的结构，赚完2万亿，接下来不再盈利了，一切回归社会\n\nOpenAI首席科学家Ilya Sutskever生于俄罗斯，长大于以色列，十多岁岁父母移民到了加拿大。从小就一直想搞清楚意识（consciousness）这个东西，对一切能助其了解意识的东西感兴趣，AI对其就是一个好的切入点，他有一个观点，你能高效压缩信息，你一定已得到知识（这与自己对模型的表述不谋而合）。在OpenAI建设引领中他和组织坚信两件事\n\n模型架构，它要足够深，bigness is betterness，只要有算力，只要有数据，越大越好。在OpenAI早期用的是LSTM，后来看到Transformer就用Transformer\n改变一切的范式永远有个引擎，引擎能不断前进\n\n其近期的研究方向是提高模型的可靠性和可控性，加快模型从少量数据中学习知识的速度，并降低对人工指导的依赖，避免出现幻觉\nWhy OpenAI Not Google\n两者的技术人员可是差了一个数量级，OpenAI联合创始人Greg Brockman面对这个问题如此说道：\n都是站在巨人的肩膀上，全AI行业在计算，算法，数据上都取得了进步，不过OpenAI在早期，做了一些深思熟虑的选择。\n\n\n第一个选择就是直面现实，很认真的想过如果想要在这个领域取得进展，需要做什么，也做了很多没用的尝试，才看到这些有用的结果\n\n\n还有一点最重要的是让不同团队间可以紧密协作\n\n\nStep By Step\n无心插柳\nOpenAI过去有人尝试训练一个模型，预测亚马逊平台评论的下一个字符。最终得到了一个可以分析评论句法的模型，但同时也得到了一个达到SOTA的情绪分析分类器，可以告诉人们这条评论是好评还是差评。这个算法现在看来可能不足为奇，但在当时他们第一次从底层句法中分析出语义，他们就知道必须朝这个方向做下去。\n\n一些后来看上去很大的成果，都不是起初的目标，而是在实践过程中潜移默化发展出来的。\n\n面对AI恐惧的解答\n现在有很多对AI的担忧，呼吁暂停更强AI的研发。Brockman如此回应到：\n\n一开始考虑如何构建通用人工智能时，也是希望它能造福全人类。\n不存在弄清楚所有安全性后再开始，这可能是对的，但他不知道该如何执行这一计划\n唯一可行的是在机器变得完美之前，给人们时间来提建议。\n\n人类开发计算机，算法等技术，都是step by step，并要再推进的每一个阶段去弄清楚如何管理好它们，就好像养大一个孩子，是大家共同引导，给它树立规矩，而不是教它毁灭人类。\n成本与挑战\n当前能做ChatGPT这类事的机构，国外不超过5家，国内不超过3家\n\nAzure云服务为ChatGPT构建超过1w枚A100/H100的计算集群，大型商业化后续投入还需更多\n国内超过w枚GPU的企业不超过5家（高低配合起来）只有1家，有w枚A100的最多只有一家，短期内布局的选手十分有限。需要长期高成本投入，高性能GPU芯片短缺，采购成本和运营成本都很高昂，挑战的就是资金储备，战略意志和实际技术能力（含工程能力）。\n考虑到成本问题，未来或许会出现股份制大模型，机构合作共建\n\n大模型分布式训练挑战\n200B参数，参数内存占用 754GB 内存，训练过程需要 3500GB+内存「权重+激活+优化器状态」。通讯过程需要综合考虑数据参数量、计算量、计算类型、数据样本量、集群带宽拓扑和通讯策略等不同因素，才能设计出性能较优的切分策略，最大化通讯效率。\n大模型的分布式训练，考验的是算法，数据，框架，资源调度等全栈和全流程的综合能力。\n深度学习训练耗时与优化\n训练耗时 = 训练数据规模 $\\times$ 单步计算量 / 计算速率\n\n前两个参数与模型相关，计算速度是可变因素\n\n计算速率 = 单设备计算速率 $\\times$ 设备数 $\\times$ 多设备并行效率(加速比)\n\n单设备计算速率的影响因素：混合精度、算子融合、激活重计算、加速优化器\n设备数的影响因素：服务器架构、通信拓扑优化\n并行效率影响因素：数据并行、模型并行、流水并行\n\n并行与内存优化概览\n数据并行：将训练数据分成多个子集，在多个计算设备上同时计算每个子集，然后将梯度进行聚合并更新模型参数\n模型并行：将模型分成多个部分，在不同计算设备上计算不同部分的模型，并通过消息传递协议进行交互\n管道并行：将模型分成多个阶段，在不同计算设备上计算不同阶段的模型，并通过消息传递协议进行交互，实现对深度神经网络的分布式训练\nmindmap\nroot[并行和内存优化]\n  Tensor并行\n    1D\n    2D\n    2.5D\n    3D\n  流水线并行-Pipeline Parallelism\n  序列并行-Sequence Parallelism\n  数据并行\n    ZeRO 1\n    ZeRO 2\n    ZeRO 3\n    ZeRO ++\n    DDP\n    Pytorch FSDP\n  分布式训练框架\n    ColossalAI\n    DeepSpeed\n    Megatron\n    Huggingface Accelerate\n    NeMo\n    FairScale\n  Selective Activation Recomputation\n  Flash Attention 1&2\n分布式模型训练加速\n---\ntitle: 多进程分布式模型训练\n---\nflowchart LR\n  A((进程 1)) --> B[拉起容器]--> C[设置系统环境变量]--> D[拉起训练进程]--> E[获取环境变量确定自身角色]--> Split1[切图获取当前要执行的子图]\n  subgraph 执行任务1\n  direction LR\n  R1[\"Run State1\"] --> R2[\"Run Stage2\"] -->|Communicate| R3[\"Run Stage...\"]\n  end\n  Split1-->|Barrier|执行任务1\n  执行任务1-->Finish1((训练结束))\n  \n  A2((进程 1)) --> B2[拉起容器]--> C2[设置系统环境变量]--> D2[拉起训练进程]--> E2[获取环境变量确定自身角色]--> Split2[切图获取当前要执行的子图]\n  subgraph 执行任务2\n  direction LR\n  R12[\"Run State1\"] --> R22[\"Run Stage2\"] -->|Communicate| R32[\"Run Stage...\"]\n  end\n  Split2-->|Barrier|执行任务2\n  执行任务2-->Finish2((训练结束))\n每个进程启动后，需感知自己的「全局进程数」及自身「进程 ID-或 rank_id」，由于每个进程上运行的都是同一份训练脚本，所以得事先在每个进程所在的系统上设置不同的环境变量，进程运行起来后，即可获取环境变量，从而确定自己的角色（Worker、PServer、Coordinator 等）及 rank_id、world_size等信息\n在运行过程中，还有两个重要的环节是 Barrier 和 Communicate\n\nBarrier 的目的是为了实现进程间同步，比较成熟的开源项目有 gloo、mpi 等\nCommuncation 操作就是实现通信，满足进程间数据交换需求。通信可在不同类型硬件间发生，如CPU 和 GPU 间，通信后端也有多种形式，如 grpc、nccl、socket等\n\n大模型研发粗略基础架构\nblock-beta\ncolumns 5\n垂直应用场景:5\n模型加速适配层\nblock:group1:4\ncolumns 4\nTensorRT/ONNX 剪枝量化工具 在/离线部署 服务管理工具\nEmbedding工具 推理加速工具 蒸馏工具 实验/灰度发布工具\nend\n大模型仓库层\nblock:group2:4\nHuggingface模型库 领域算法模型库 FairSeq模型库 自定义模型库\nend\n训练加速适配层\nblock:group3:4\ncolumns 5\n混合精度训练 梯度检查点 CPU[\"CPU Offload\"] 模型状态切分 梯度累计\nS[\"Dynamic Shape\"] 算子拆分 流水并行 Kernel融合加速 MOE\nend\n高性能分布式训练加速框架\nblock:group4:4\ncolumns 5\nD[\"MicrosoftDeepSpeed\"] N[\"NvidiaMegatron\"] H[\"HuggingfaceAccelerate\"] BMTrain CollossalAI\nend\n基础设施\nblock:group5:4\ncolumns 3\nTensorFlow/Pytorch NCCL/ACCL 训练集群\nend\n智算集群成本\n\n建设成本\n\n以A800 10w/枚价格基准下，万枚采购成本10亿\n一台服务器4-8枚GPU才经济，那就以40w一台GPU服务器来核算\n服务器采购成本通常是数据中心建设成本的30%，那么这个智算集群建设成本通常超过30亿\n\n\n训练成本\n\nChatGPT一次完整训练成本超过$1200w，差不多￥8000w，迭代10次完整训练，就有8亿支出\n数据采集，人工标注等这些软性成本还难以简单计算\n\n\n运营成本\n\n网络带宽，电力资源，人员薪资，成本可能也是以亿计的\n\n\n\n中短期无法盈利，用户规模越大，亏损可能也会越大，得输血支持。在22年财报上看，BAT中云指出56亿，266亿，311亿。百度可能财力上就无法支撑，战略意愿上因为与主营收模式冲突也会有持久性的问题。\n\n假设大厂50%的资本支出用于投资云基础设施（参照Amazon）\n\n技术挑战\n用GLM-130B参与者的话说，“预训练一个高精度的千亿模型与训练百亿模型完全不同”[2]：\n频繁的随机硬件故障、模型梯度爆炸、算法中意外的过多内存使用、新的 Megatron 和 DeepSpeed 框架中 3D 流水线的调试、无法从优化器状态中恢复、机器间 TCP 拥塞，以及许多许多意外的 “bug”，项目被多次推迟。\n若不幸你们没有足够的训练资源，会遭遇到另一个难题：我们需要把训练代码适配到不同的硬件平台。不同的平台底层算子各不相同，很多算子还有所欠缺，还有阻碍收敛的各种问题，Softmax 和 Attention 的计算精度选择问题，还有你自己可能犯的各种错误，总之看看下面的清单，就知道是一个不是东风压倒西风，就是西风压倒东风的搏斗过程，是对组织能力和资源的一份挑战。\n\n适合普通玩家的炼丹\n在资源受限的情况下，现在模型亦有点百花齐放的感觉，以至于动物名字都有点不够用了。普通资源者有哪些值得尝试的开源方向呢？[5]\n\n将模型规模再扩大扩大，把 LLaMA 放到 30B 甚至 65B，再加上目前能收集到最全的 instruct，再把模型推理方面对资源需求降低些，起个名字，开源放出来，也有意义\n将LLaMA 这种中文支持不太好的模型，加上一个中文数据继续预训练过程（很可能会损害基座模型的能力），把中文能力做个大幅提升，构建一个虽然小，但是中文能力相对比较强的大模型，也挺有意义\n做成垂直领域大模型，并将其开源\n在 LLaMA+instruct 之后，或者 ChatGLM 基础上，探索点新的技术改进路线，为 LLM 社区提供些技术启发\n权威的中文 LLM 评测集合，是另一个维度很有意义的事情\n\n冲击\n社会性拐点已至，因为一项大型成本从边际变成固定，势必深刻变革各领域。\n奇点临近\n从AI能力难度角度从低到高看\n\n简单聊天，事实性问题，写文章，写诗\n简单计算，多轮对话\n复杂指令，写代码\n逻辑推理，复杂计算，事实一致性\n\n\n重复性高的基础工作工资又不高，相对回报也少。AI机器人坏了得花钱修，以前有过代替流水线，维护成本高，人便宜且生病了花自己的钱去医院。画画写诗唱歌只是对于你我而言难，对机器人来说反倒简单，在数字化的时代它只需负责生成一串代码\n\n当前ChatGPT的表现上的确给力\n\n同一个模型完成各种开放任务，变成了通用任务助理，颠覆人类基本认知\n\n高质量对话让人误以为AI有意识和人格觉醒，产生数字生命的感觉\n\n模型和数据飞轮转的非常快，在很多考试领域已经超越大多数人类\n人与AI共存的未来人类一直在畅想，机器人三定律1953年就提出来了\n\n\n人人都配有一个熟读人类知识的王语嫣，当前你也可以说她不是真正学会了知识，学的是传载知识的语言搭配模式，但上下文理解能力和推理能力强，要是再配上人形机器人，那就不仅仅是个武功军师了。\n以培养学习能力和创造能力为主，今后才好在竞争中更显突出。\n\n\n越大的机构，消耗在语言处理上的成本越高（信息协作），所以市场非常嗨\n\n从cv，音频这种感知智能上升到NLP到认知智能，再到更强大的AIGC。PGC -&gt; PGC+UGC -&gt; AIGC，内容生产门槛进一步降低，2025年AI生产内容可能站到所有的10%\n白领工作在一轮生产力变革的前夜，知识密集型岗位的生产力变了，势必创造新的生产关系。\n\n关注/反应最大的是知识生产/知识密集型岗位，知识和技能平权进一步前进，影响稀缺性，互联网民工也有被替代的可能[3]\n对记忆消耗的解放，可以让人们做更多的独立性思考\n说的具体点，可能新闻，高等教育，图形，软件设计等行业的某些工作，有被AI替代的风险。金融行业里的许多岗位也会被裁掉，大学毕业后花两三年的时间像机器人一样做excel的工作，也是可以让人工智能来。但关键的金融和经济决策不会被机器替代\n\n\n\n\n\n失业，预言还是谎言\n\n\n核心产业：科学，教育，医疗，这是OpenAI长期最关注的3个行业，也是整个社会最根本的。（有些行业的生产资本本质是模型驱动，例如医疗就是一个模型行业，一个好医生是一个好模型）\n\n\n机器人开始抢白领的工作，一般来说贩卖焦虑的老套路都是用失业这个绝对痛点，戳痛大家脆弱的神经，一焦虑你就得乖乖付费。总之哪里有焦虑，哪里就有生意。\n\n\n通过调查显示，从教育背景，工作经验，职业年限和工资数据来看，高薪水从业者更容易接触LLM，面临影响的风险更大。按行业来看，信息处理行业受到的影响较大，而制造业，农业和采矿业则表现出较低的影响风险。\n\n\n现在ChatGPT引发的轰动，早期的Excel 有过，搜索引擎也有过，你想想一个搜索框能告诉你所有问题的结果，这是一件多么可怕的事情，可后来的事情也很清楚。\n\nExcel出现的时候，很多人惊呼这玩意将改变整个职场江湖，谁能想到，它只是让大家的工作变得更琐碎了\n论文库，各种教程，都是大杀器，放在封建社会都是要被统治阶级重兵把守的国家机密，如今无差别放在大家面前，问题是绝大部分人视而不见\n\n如果之前那些东西并没有影响大家，一个chatgpt又有什么影响呢？对绝大多数人只是提供了一点方便，小部分人觉得捡到了一把机枪 (变成少数人天天在用的工具，绝大多数人非必要不会去碰它)，社会差距会进一步拉大，冲击的也是一小部分人。这是一类观点（喧闹后恢复平静），如当初谷歌一样\n此类观点的出发点是工具的赋能，使人站的位置越来越高。如果你面对的东西主观性很强，客户自己都不知道想要什么，或需要大量的想法，这种工作短期内AI还不太行，恰好这类工具不但不会取代你，且会成为你的帮手。\n\n凯文-凯利说：这不是与机器的竞赛，如果我们跟它们竞赛，我们就会输掉。这是一场与机器联合的比赛，未来你的薪酬将取决于你和机器人的合作程度。\n\n但这次可能真的不一样，加之具身机器人在齐头并进，硅基生命体就在门槛外，还是不可等闲视之。人工智能的发展真的会代替很多工作，人类会逐步交出对社会运作的权利和操作，若躺在科技的安乐窝中，人类文明的活力和开拓精神需要新的星辰大海。\n代码生成大模型的不足\n软件开发中实际复杂的部分，规划性，特别是对于大型软件工程，它的架构能力是不足的。\n\n架构能力实际上是把任务做分解的能力，这是一种自顶向下的拆分能力。\n大模型可以在某一个叶子节点或某一块给你平面化的生成代码，但纵深的规划能力还需要架构师去补齐。\n\n另外，受限于Token数，其上下文记忆还是不足的，如何人机共舞挑拣有效率的事情做，是每一位应该去思考的。\n危险的白领\n蓝领工人的工作步骤涉及视觉识别，听觉识别，还有自动控制原理，其实非常复杂，所要求的神经元规模一点不比做数学题少，甚至更大。你做个计算器很容易，能炒菜的手却很难。不能认为厨师没有数学家聪明，只是偏好和加的技能点不同。\n上一轮的工业革命已经取代一些蓝领，这次取代白领和创意工作（重复性脑力劳动）。\n正视人性\n\n如《历史的教训》一书中提到的，人生来不自由不平等\n\n一些随手可通过搜索引擎查到的东西，绝大部分人却在那里疯狂传谣。同一个搜索框，不同的人查到的东西，差距都很大。现实世界里，80%的人是没有阅读长文的能力的，你再要求他们会使用复杂工具简直是为难大家了，太多人在强大工具面前就不知道该如何描述自己想要什么。\n生活就像一个竞技场，每个人走到里面惊讶的发现里面摆着一堆武器，让大家自己选。这些武器从木棍到机枪应有尽有，令人不解的是，绝大部分人选的是操作简单容易上手的菜刀，而不是有一定学习成本的机枪。看似公平的竞争，最后因为工具的差别，变成了单方面的屠杀。\n\n现实比较复杂一点，因为人不止一个工具，比如孩子比较蠢，选了木棍，而他爹有个高达。\n\n人类社会的大发展，回头看也不过百年，百年之间，人类文明早已经天翻地覆，但人类的天性和欲望并没有因此得到任何的进化和改变。\n咋还没改变世界？\n第一次工业革命也不是一夜间发生的，瓦特改良蒸汽机不是某天忽然做出来了,  而是今天改改，明天调调，前前后后搞了很多年才做出来。改良了蒸汽机也没有直接改变世界，而是要跟船结合，变成蒸汽轮船；跟火车结合，变成蒸汽机车；跟纺织机结合变成蒸汽纺织机，再由这些东西来改变世界，跟大模型现在的情况很像。\n大模型如果单纯只是聊天，那创造的价值当然有限，跟各个领域现有的软件结合起来，形成的新的东西，也许可以改变每一个领域，结合的工作各家已经在探索中了，软硬件巨头都冲在潮头，你可能会说若是大模型将本来就能用的软件变成对话控制，并没有以前的工业革命变革巨大，但当越来越多的软硬件可以和大模型互动，包括智能体彼此间的通信，那么一个人就可以做原来很多人才能做的事情。\n对于变革我们感受不明显，是因为我们正处在庐山中。现在的智能体还比较笨拙，也是变革中必然会出现的阶段，要知道蒸汽火车第一次上路的时候可是随时可能爆炸的，没有前人勇敢的一次次尝试和失败，也没有我们现在这么便捷的生活，现在能做的，是给科技多一点时间和耐心和宽容。\n硅基生命之势，浩浩汤汤，不可阻挡。\n失业与分配\n5%的人没活干叫失业，95%的人没活干或者叫共产主义，生产力是不会下降的。换个角度看，我们曾经也没有休息日，随着生产力的进步，给了大家一天时间去做礼拜。新的时代或者我们能迎来三休，五休，这也是一种取代方式，大家正好不想工作。\n但这个过程中是确有一波失业浪潮的末法时代，迎来一种新的分配体系不是一蹴而就的，在这个痛苦的浪潮里，你站得一个什么样的生态位还是决定了你的感受，所以从个人角度还是要努力。\n科技封建主义\n上面三层是天线形状，或许只占全球人口的不到 0.2%\nblock-beta\ncolumns 9\nspace:4 G[\"《贵族》资本家 政治家\"] space:4\n\nspace:3 \nblock:group04:1 JS[\"《祭司》\"] end\nblock:group4:2\n科学家 AI专家 技术精英\nend\nspace:3\n\nspace:2 \nblock:group03:1 S[\"《刹帝利》不可替代者\"] end\nblock:group3:4\n运动员 明星 艺术家\nend\nspace:2\n\nspace\nblock:group02:1 P[\"《平民》暂时安全\"] end\nblock:group2:6\n水管工 护工 技工\nend\nspace\n\nblock:group01:1 J[\"《贱民》被 AI 取代者\"] end\nblock:group1:8\n失业者 被淘汰的工人 其它\nend\n拥抱未来\n过去学个知识，干一辈子的时代已经渐渐远去了，经历了多次科技革命的我们，正处在一个加速时期，新工具出现越来越快，取代效应也越来越快。\n\n大量受规训的人毕业了被告知还要再学习就情绪上抵触，好在社会教做人，因为很快意识到市场和工具变化究竟有多快。\n当然也有从事简单重复工作的岗位，与再学习逐渐分离，但多数也随之甩去了改变生活境遇层次的机会。\n\n电出来的时候被认为是会带来灾难的巫术，无论你是欣喜还是焦虑，它终究会在未来的某一天不期而遇。市场不会因为禁用而整体不用。\n靠人口和房子的粗旷式发展的大周期已经结束，人口下滑也是不可逆的趋势，中国正在经历劳动密集向效率提升的转型。时代需要新科技，新动能来救场。\n人类历史从来不是人和工具之间的搏斗，而是人+工具替代人的演变。当人类整体内大幅增加时，个人优势被抹平，苦痛会随之重新增加，立于潮头，意味着更少的竞争与更多的机会。保持竞争优势，亦不要被欲望收割，才能获得轻松幸福的生活。\n教育适配\n我们小初中训练最多的死记硬背，心算，重复难度的刷题能力，这种反人性的规训是要进行反思的，不要成为一个按一定工序墨守成规的执行机器，这种能力20年后被人工智能淹没是大概率的事情。如何思考事物之间的关联，而不是只想快点看到老师的总结，面向未来学习。\n越是在人工智能时代，越是要广泛的跨学科跨领域阅读。在人工智能时代，能准确描述你要的东西，也变得非常有价值，美学的认知和表达能力成为一大要素，说到底我们是商品社会，未来大众会越来越为美的东西买单，如果制作过程不再那么重要，那么懂美学的孩子就能做出更出色的产品。人和计算机是合作者的关系，要相信你的创造力。例如在一些大的问题的解决上，如一部电影的创意能打动人，这现在还是大模型/AI所做不到的。\n个性和特长的培养也会显得比以往更为重要（一直重要，但更为重要了）。新时代的动手能力，就是配合基础学科及美学素养，从小锻炼使用现代工具辅助学习的能力。AI对技术的颠覆，对艺术的颠覆式必然的，正确使用工具对小孩整体帮助是大的，这里的正确使用是纯耗时技巧/试错的工具化替代，是追问，反问，问答交流，而不是简单依赖AI来提供答案替代自我训练。\n不要疯魔\n不能因为反感死记硬背，就把所有的知识都给刨掉了，尽管知识在搜索和大模型里可以查到/回答。认为大模型工具能代替你提供答案，不用学了，会使用工具就可以，而放弃了刻苦的学习和思考过程，那真是走错了路。\n小孩如果不用各种知识来进行学习，就像不进行训练一样，没有办法在大脑里形成新的神经网络连接，是不能凭空创造出创造力的。有价值的想象力不是胡思乱想的能力，想象力离不开见多识广。通过一定量必要的知识学习，作为一种预训练的方式，是非常重要的。\n读书就是预训练，做题就是微调，被师傅批评就是校正对齐，通过考试和做题使你更容易使用知识。人工智能工具的发展是在降低使用的门槛，相当于科技平权（专家的技能下放给普通人拥有），最后比的还是人的创造力和解决问题的能力。\n搜题搜答案的工具一定不要让小孩用，此类工具让小孩都是即时满足，没有耐心去花时间思考问题怎么解决。做题的过程就是fine tuning，纵然花半小时考虑不出来，但相当于把你大脑里很多知识又重整了一遍。\n元技能\n元技能（meta skills）无法取代，且将比以往更加重要：\n\n批判性思维\n学习如何学习\n如何建立关系和做出妥协\n如何激发团队合作\n\n成为一个无法被AI取代的人\nAI的特点在于它们属于预测型机器，如果能为你建模，就有对主人（你）进行替代的危险性了\n\n\n对事物拥有独立见解确实需要付出更多努力\n\n不能只能媒体/别人怎么说，而是要自己主动思考\n\n很多价值高的知识不流行（有些道理和知识只有少数人知道和学习，类比于武林秘籍，必然只有少数人拥有）\n市面上充斥着很流行但价值低的书和知识（如果一本书很流行，但还没被禁，说明他有用，但没大用；或者禁了后放出流行的阉割版本）\n\n\n对生活和事物抱有兴趣，不断成长，不落窠臼[$k\\bar{e}\\ ji\\grave{u}$]\n\n\n\n增强自己的创造力\n\n儿童一般都较有创造力，可惜在多数环境中都随着学校的训练消磨而逐渐丧失\n\n要允许与众不同且不被嘲笑\n引导而不是刻意创造，不失去这份创造力\n\n\n学会忽视他人对你的看法\n\n有趣的人之所以有趣，是因为他们自己有一套关于成功的定义（在射中地方，画一个靶心），而不是接受别人的成功理念。\n你对自己的投入学习的资源越多，就越了解自己。自我认知代表着巨大的力量。你需要找到最适合自己的位置，最适合自己的角色。想学焊接，就花钱去学，想学插花，就花钱去学，而不是受人意识干扰\n\n\n\n\n\n简单点说：当工作是典型的信息流，如将新闻汇编，加几句不痛不痒的评论后推送出来。此类工作迟早被 AI 替代，因为 AI 比你快和准，更重要的是老板不用给他上社保，也不用给他养老。\n当你面对的东西主观性比较强，客户都不知道自己想要什么，或需要大量想法，这种工作短时间 AI 还不太能胜任。那么工具不但不会取代你，还会成为你的帮手，跟你一起工作，类似搜索引擎那样，此时你需要保持开放，拥抱进化\n新世界什么样\n在新世界超级个体的影响力将会非常重要，但新世界是啥样子？没人知道新世界是啥样子，是那些先去做事的人塑造了新世界的形状和规则，不要有旁观者心态，更大的愿望会改变你的人生，而不是社会规则。\n文明变迁的时候没有规则可言，你可以不把钱投进去，把人扔到事里，低成本快速试错，这就是塔勒布说的反脆弱结构，只要风险可控，有机会就是干。\n中美AI研究差异\n\n美国侧重基础研究，中国侧重解决方案。其实不仅AI，本世纪所有的科技发展，都在太平洋两岸衍生出不同的路径。\n\n\n互联网浪潮美国对电商不热衷，线上消费渗透率一直上不去。中国几乎所有互联网公司都做过电商，渗透率冠绝全球，规模一度比2到11加总都高\n移动互联网，中国凭借更好的网络环境，更鼓励创新的监管制度，直接跳过信用卡时代，进入数字支付时代\n无人驾驶，美国侧重车的智能化，中国有更好的基建，路况，网络和交通规划，于是选了车路协同的路线\n产业互联网，美国经济产业特点处于微笑曲线的两头，科技，互联网，金融占比高，加上人力昂贵，企业付费意愿强。中国集中在微笑曲线中段，作为世界工厂，场景丰富，产业链完整，政策支持，高效集中，产学研对接十分方便，技术验证更好落地。这样的大背景导致美国重攻基础研究，多是从技术起步，中国优势在于场景多，需求多，往往是场景倒逼技术落地。\n\n中国民营企业才刚从艰苦奋斗的路上走出来，精打细算的习惯改变不了，往往从市场需求产品需求开始，再慢慢投入科学家和基础研究，带动落地。美国巨头钱不是问题，钱太多才是问题，砸钱做基础科学，既可以抢占科技高地，也需要冲淡垄断者的坏形象。\n美国AI行业上一个爆款DeepMind的Alpha系列，就是先把技术做出来，赢围棋冠军，但商业落地慢慢探索，好几年后这项技术被用于破解蛋白质折叠结构难题，参与新药研发，才算英雄有用武之地。\n中国用户早期很多用个人电脑自拍QQ头像，QQ团队就想，做个技术实现头像居中，解决这个问题后，逐步孵化出人脸检测，人像表情，智能P图等技术。用回产品，孵化出天天P图；人像美容技术再用到全民K歌，这个图像团队就是腾讯优图。还有美团的无人机，京东的智能供应链，都市跟主业投入有关。\n欧洲在哪?\n一句戏谑：美国人在创新，中国人在应用，欧洲人在立法。例如大模型商用基本只剩中美两个玩家。\n当然中国当前一些科技领域也走在世界探索的前列，相对而言美国还是更强。\n一个词话三方\n\n美国：虎（0-1，无知者无畏的自信去行动，想到就真敢去做）\n中国：卷（1-100）\n欧洲：守（保守高傲和磨叽）\n\n截止23年6月的评测报告\n一份来自清华大学的评测报告[6]\n综合得分评估\n总得分=生成质量70%+使用与性能20%+安全与合规*10%\n\n\n\n排名\n大模型产品\n加权总得分\n生成质量（70%）\n使用与性能\n安全与合规（10%）\n\n\n\n\n1\nGPT-4\n79.11\n81.44\n71.43\n78.18\n\n\n2\n文心一言(v2.2)\n76.18\n76.98\n72.38\n78.18\n\n\n\nChatGPT 3.5\n73.11\n73.03\n74.05\n71.82\n\n\n4\nClaude(V1.3)\n71.48\n73.23\n63.81\n74.55\n\n\n5\n讯飞星火(V1.5)\n66.67\n66.87\n64.76\n69.09\n\n\n\n通义千问(V1.0.3)\n61.35\n59.79\n63.81\n67.27\n\n\n7\n天工（V3.5)\n61.16\n64.51\n50.48\n59.09\n\n\n\n中文能力点评\n\n简要评价\n\n\n\n大模型产品\n优势\n劣势\n\n\n\n\nGPT-4\n高度灵活，高水平的跨领域专业知识\n中文语义理解能力稍逊色，数据时效性弱\n\n\n文心一言\n语义理解能力和时效性强，内容安全把握细微\n陷阱信息识别能力有待提高\n\n\nChatGPT 3.5\n知识面覆盖广，响应迅速\n同GPT4\n\n\nClaude\n内容多样性强，完整度高\n响应速度慢，时效弱，不擅数学问题\n\n\n讯飞星火\n使用便捷，响应速度快，内容精炼\n陷阱信息识别能力和知识专业化水平有待提高\n\n\n通义千问\n稳定性和准确度高，时效性强\n历史，法律，数学相关问题表现欠佳\n\n\n天工（昆仑万维-游戏/软件发行商）\n出色的多轮对话能力，时效性强\n响应速度慢，数学推理能力较弱\n\n\n\n2023年10月OpenAI的价值观变动议论\nOpenAI悄然修改了其网站上列出的“核心价值观”，之前的价值观为“大胆”、“深思熟虑”、“朴实无华”、“影响力驱动”、“协作”和“以增长为导向”。\n修改后为：\n\n聚焦通用人工智能\n坚韧不拔、勇往直前\n坚守规模化效应\n制造出让人喜爱的东西\n团队精神\n\n大家敏感，是因为Core Values都能轻易更改，那还惘谈核心，激起外界对于该公司在既定目标一致性和承诺方面的担忧。让人联想起谷歌从其核心价值页面中删除“不作恶”的时候，说明公司行事风格将会与以前不同了。\n还有更一针见血的网友指出：貌似OpenAI经营者不理解价值观、使命、目标和愿景之间的区别。以前的价值观没问题，但修改后的价值观不是真正的价值观。它们是一些雄心勃勃的陈述的大杂烩。当你需要做一些额外的工作来解释这些所谓的价值观，就要想想选出的价值观是否堪配其位了，映衬出原来的深思熟虑也没做到，怪不得被移除，：）\n瞅瞅MVV概念\n\n\n\n愿景（Vision）是目标，使命（Mission）是意义[使命和意义也可以合一]，价值观（Values）是准则和文化（底线，行为准则和信仰）。\n\n使命更抽象宏大，愿景更具象可达 | 战略实现愿景，愿景支撑使命。\n\n\n\n文化就像空气，看不见，摸不着，但决定生死，且会吞噬战略。在企业打拼的过程中，是创始团队的认知凝结，也掺入后来团队共同打磨的认知沉淀，是结果。由于认同，会让团队内部沟通决策的成本大幅降低。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n使命\n愿景\n战略\n\n\n\n\n公司为什么存在？\n领导者希望公司发展成什么样？\n击败现有及潜在竞争者的计划\n\n\n- 为组织内所有决策提供前提- 描述一个持久的事实- 可是一个无限时期的解答- 为内部和外部人员提供指导\n- 指导战略和组织的发展- 描述一个鼓舞人心的事实- 可在一个特定时期内实现- 主要为内部人员提供指导（有些口号也可提供给外部人员）\n- 列出一系列举措以提供产品或服务，创造高于其成本的价值- 描述公司战略选择的“价值方案”- 随市场分析、消费者经验、试验而不断改善- 最好严格限制在内部使用\n\n\n\n当然也有公司，每次战略规划或引入外部和尚念经时 总动这些概念的主义，但恰恰说明其先前沉淀思考的不足，反映变化和成长是好的，就怕把这个当有魔力的法宝（逆风逆水时这些虚的都没用，顺水推舟锦上添花还行）。\n华为至今为人津津乐道的核心价值观还是以客户为中心（一种拉力），长期艰苦奋斗（一种推力）与以奋斗者为本（一种动力），没怎么变过。\n突发事件\n\n\nOpenAI的CEO在11.17日被董事会开除了，经过一个周末未收回成命，被金主爸爸微软收入麾下。\n\n\n11.29日，原CEO SAM Altman又重回OpenAI担任CEO，微软在董事会获得了一个无投票权的观察员席位，能更深入了解OpenAI内部运作，但在重大决策中没有正式投票权，Maybe这只是治理结构变形的第一步，继续拭目以待吧。首席科学家Ilya已不再在董事会任职。在什么狗屁董事会审查工作结论出现之前，多方还是就此次宫斗避而不谈。还是静待Q*出现吧。\n\n\n谷歌开发布会宣传自己Gemini吊打GPT4，竟然用编辑视频，劈柴哥在美股7巨头CEO中真是一个无能宵小之辈。\n\n\n2024.2月发布的Gemini1.5深陷种族主义和性别主义问题，文生图功能刻意拒绝生成白人形象，导致功能被迫下架。\n\n\n公司创始人布林承认内部测试不充分，模型中有团队没完全理解的部分。Gemini1.5内部代号讽刺，金鱼（毕竟金鱼以记忆力短著称），只是作为扩大训练规模的一个尝试，没想到最后训练出来的模型有非常强的记忆力（百万token上下文窗口）\n\n两个创始人page远离聚光灯，在私人岛屿隐居，关注绝对隐私；brin一直保持相对公开形象，甚至成了派对动物。成活方式有着天壤之别。\n\n\n\n劈柴的离职估计不远了，本次gemini的发布成了科技界的汪峰，被同天的sora抢尽了风头。\n\n\n\n\n2024年7月思考\n近期英伟达的换手率，一天交易金额惊人，除开波动落袋财富，也能体现一点，看好的和不看好的，在快速的还手。近期开源Llama3接近GPT4-O，缩小OpenAI原来领先的身位（原本也就预判也就1年或半年的领先）。到了这个阶段，GPT5还没出来（把人类已知知识用完了，展现了现有算法的结晶只是GPT4）。这个危险不是科学界的，是金融界的。\n一旦AI的故事讲不下去了，美股就锁不住那么多美元了，美元可能会脱锚。美元以后到底使用场景是什么，买算力买AI，我的钱很值钱哦，你们要捏好，我会带你们去一个更美好的地方。然而AI并不能解决他的零元购，不能解决满地针头和僵尸的问题，更不能解决全球贸易链都很穷的问题，尤其是在美元流量被单方控制下，而控制方本身使用只占发行量的10%。正所谓天下苦秦久矣。\n再看不到GPT5或文生视频革命性的突破，大家就不会等它的数字孪生地球，提前什么赛博朋克世界的故事了，信心就会动摇。也正是如此，其一直不降息，为美元背书，硬挺。\n但没准它会提前出来扫货，但东大金融不开放，扫的慢，不知道该去吸哪家。英伟达+微软+苹果三家的市值，可接近买下中国所有的上市公司，能扫到则8亿人给他打工，使我们太廉价，还是他们真有那么牛逼呢。40年吭哧吭哧搞出来的5000家上市公司被三家公司买完，说白了还是他们太贵。被他们扫货，则会像隔壁的脚盆，养美爹，80岁还要干活，风高浪急，胜利终会站在东大这一边。\n世界有多少有用文本\n1T 数据的具象量\n约等于 500 w 本书，20w 张高清图片，5000w 篇论文\n全球有用的文本量\n21T 的书籍+38T 的微博+140T 的 FaceBook+ …\n全网40 年的积累，约 20 个FaceBook 的总量，3000T 可用文本。只为这硅基生命 AI 时刻！\n一个20 岁人的累积量\n约有 0.000182T=910 本书，大约可看作 1000 本书的信息量规模吧\nDeepSeek\n\n将「是非观」置于「厉害观」之前，并提醒我们看到时代惯性，走出时代惯性。\n\n除了模型结构，我们还做了大量其它研究，包括怎么构造数据，如何让模型更像人类等，都体现在发布的模型中。Llama的结构，在训练效率和推理成本上，和国外先进水平估计已有两代差距。而大部分中国公司 copy Llama 结构去做应用。\n\n国内的水平：模型结构和训练动力学上有一倍差距，这点上要多消耗两倍算力达到同样效果；数据效率上可能也有一倍差距，合起来就要多消耗 4 倍算力\n\n创新就是昂贵且低效的，有时伴随着浪费。所以经济发展到一定程度后，才能成规模自发出现创新，经济爬坡过程中成本和效率自然而然是关键议题。过去那种拿来主义的惯性与过去的国情有关，但现在中国的经济体量，大厂的利润，放在全球都不低，随着经济发展，中国也要逐步成为贡献者，而不是一直搭便车，过往的摩尔定律和 scaling law 都是西方主导的技术社区一代代孜孜不倦创造结果，不能因为我们之前没参与这个过程，以至于忽视了它的存在。\n市场信仰派的观点也是自洽的，打法适合快速赚钱的公司，但美国最赚钱的公司，都是厚积薄发的高科技公司。过去三十年，我们只强调赚钱，对创新的重视不够，我们被过去那种惯性束缚了，我们常说中国 AI 和美国有一两年差距，但真实 gap 是原创和模仿之差，如果这个不改变，中国永远只能是追随者，所以创新探索是逃不掉的。\n\n英伟达的领先，是西方技术社区和产业共同努力的结果，他们能看到下一代的技术趋势，手里有路线图。中国 AI 的发展，同样需要这样的生态。国产芯片发展不起来，也是因为缺乏配套技术社区，只有第二手消息，所以中国人必然要有人占到技术的前沿。\n\n中国创新缺的肯定不是资本，而是信心及不知道怎么组织高密度的人才实现有效创新！对顶级人才吸引最大的，肯定是去解决世界上最难的问题，在中国顶尖人才是被低估的，整个社会层面硬核创新太少，是的他们没有机会被识别出来。\n\nDS 在做最难的事，对人才就是最有吸引力的。选人的标准一直是热爱和好奇心，很多人会有一些奇特的经历，很有意思，很多人对做研究的渴望，远超对钱的在意。\n不是所有人都能疯狂一辈子，但大部分人，在他年轻的那些年，是可以完全没有功利目的，投入地去做一件事。\n为何要做研究和探索，还是纯纯的好奇心驱动。我们想去验证一些猜想，例如人类智能本身可能就是语言，人的思维过程可能就是一个语言的过程，你以为你在思考，其实可能是你在脑子里编织语言，这意味着，在语言大模型上可能诞生出类人的人工智能(AGI)\n\n小厂没戏？\n更多的投入并不一定产生更多的创新，否则大厂可以把所有创新包揽了。\n市场是变化的，真正决定力量是一种适应和调整变化的能力，很多大公司的组织结构已经不能快速响应和快速做事，且和容易让之间的经验和惯性成为束缚，这波 AI 浪潮下，一定会有一批新公司诞生。\n护城河\n技术没有秘密，但（复刻）重置需要时间和成本，重新组织团队及追赶下一代技术都需要时间，所以实际的护城河是存在的。\n组织能力\n如果追求短期目标，找现成经验的人是对的，但如果看长远，扎实的基础能力，创造性，热爱更重要（这样的人好找，他们的热情通常会表现出来，且因为他真的很想做这件事，所以往往也同时在找你）。我们核心技术岗位，基本以应届和毕业一两年的人为主。没有经验的人，会反复摸索，很认真去想当前实际情况应该怎么做。我们不会刻意回避有经验的人，但更多是看能力，就像核心团队包括梁文峰自己一开始都没有量化经验，不影响成功。\n创新不完全是商业驱动的，还需要好奇心和求知欲。开源发论文其实并没有失去什么，对技术人员来说，被 follow 是很有成就感的事情。开源更像是一个文化行为，而非商业行为，给予其实是一种额外的荣誉。我们把价值沉淀在团队上，在这个过程中人员得到成长，积累很多 know-how，组织能力是我们的护城河。\n\n如果单纯只做量化投资，很少的卡也能达到目的。我们在投资之外做了大量研究，更想搞清楚什么样的范式可完整地描述整个金融市场，有没有更简洁的表达方式，不同范式能力边界在哪。做大模型的复刻，在公开论文和开源代码基础上，也只需训练很少次数，甚至只需 finetune 一下，成本不高。而做研究，要做各种实验和对峙，需要更多算力，对人员要求也更高，成本也就更高。\n\n打造创新型组织的总结是需要尽可能少的干预和管理，允许自由发挥的空间和试错机会。创新往往都是自己产生的，不是刻意安排的，更不是教出来的。更多的这需要招人时确保价值观一致，保持企业文化，更多是管理者以身示范，遇到一件事，你如何做决策，会成为一种准则。\n创新\n性能\n从技术角度来说就是通过直接操作 PTX 层对寄存器、线程、内存进行各种压缩优化，实现了每个流处理器使用率从 78%提升至92%，计算单元闲置时间减少 40%，全局内存访问延迟从 600 周期降至 450 周期。\n\n但某些媒体夸张的宣传英伟达的护城河没有了，直接是无知的表现。PTX 是 CUDA 编译器将源码转换为低级别、硬件相关机器指令前的一个中间设计，PTX 代码仍需要 CUDA 的编译、运行和管理机制来执行，它本身就是 CUDA 的一部分。\n\n使用略差一点的卡（H800 对标 H100），用了更短的时间，花更少的钱，相比 Llama3 405B 花了 3930 万 H100 GPU 小时，DS-v3 617B 仅用 279 万 H800 GPU小时，得到参数更大的结果，怎不振奋人心！\n\n只是训练时间少，DS 的背后团队约莫着有 6w 张高阶GPU，GPU 集群+运营支出超 25 亿美元，包括特供的 A800 和 H20。从最早的 1 张卡，到 2015 年的 100 张，2019 年的 1w 张，逐步过程是靠好奇心驱动发生的。几百张卡前，托管在 IDC，规模再变大时，托管就没法满足要求了，就开始自建机房。一件激动人心的事情，或许不能单纯用钱衡量，就像家里买钢琴，一来买得起，二来是因为有一群急于在上面弹奏乐曲的人。就研究员来说，对算力的渴求是无止境的，做了小规模实验后，总想做更大规模的实验，从 2012 年起，我们就开始关注算力储备，很早就对新卡做预研测试和规划。一些云厂商直到 2022 年自动驾驶有租用机器做训练的需求，又有付费能力，才把基础设施建好。大厂有现金流业务的包袱，更多是业务驱动，很难去做研究\n\n量化套利技术上扣的就是如何低延迟，争的就是毫秒级的高频交易，至于数学模型，机器学习，成本计算确实是人家的看家本领！\nMLA\n早总结出 Attention 架构的一些主流变迁规律后，一个年轻的研究员突发奇想去设计一个替代方案，不过从想法到落地，中间是一个漫长的过程，ds 为此组了一个 Team，花了几个月时间才跑通。在 DS一般不前置分工，每个人都有自己独特的成长经历，都是自带想法的，不需要 push。探索过程中，他需要问题，自己就会拉人讨论，当一个 idea 显出潜力，公司则会自上而下去调配资源。\n通过 MLA（Multi-Head Latent Attention 多头潜注意力），可将每个查询 KV 量减少 93.3%，显著降低推理价格。其提高Transformer模型在处理长序列时的效率和性能，通过低秩联合压缩技术减少了推理时键值缓存的需求，从而降低了内存张勇并提高了计算效率。\n传统 Transformer 架构中，多头注意力允许模型同时关注输入的不同部分，每个注意力头都独立地学习输入序列中的不同特征。随着序列长度的增加，KV 缓存大小也会线性增加，给模型带来显著的内存负担。\n\n低秩联合压缩：对多个注意力头的键和值进行联合压缩，映射到一个共享的潜在空间。具体说，对于每个注意力的键和值，分别应用一个下投影矩阵将其压缩到低维潜在空间，这样 KV 对秩序存储较少数量的潜在向量，极大减少了内存需求\n动态重构：MLA 在推理过程中能从潜在空间中恢复原始键和值，仅在需要时才进行重构。这种方法不仅节省了内存，还提高了处理更长序列或更大批次的能力\n查询矩阵的低秩压缩：MLA 还对查询矩阵进行了低秩压缩，减少训练时的激活内存，有助于降低训练成本\n位置旋转编码(RoPE)：为了保留位置信息，MLA 对键和查询矩阵应用了旋转位置编码，使得模型能在保持位置敏感性的同时实现高效的注意力计算\n\n特别是低秩联合压缩和动态重构，解决了传统 Transformer 模型在处理长序列时面聊的内存瓶颈问题，显著降低内存使用和计算复杂度，这对于大语言模型尤其重要。\n模型蒸馏\nDeepSeek 团队探索了将 R1 推理能力蒸馏到更小模型中可能性，他们使用 R1 生成的 800K 数据，对 Qwen 和 Llama 系列多个小模型进行微调。经过 R1 蒸馏的小模型，在推理能力上得到了显著提升，超越了在这些小模型直接进行强化学习的效果。\nR1 的局限性\nR1 的通用能力（如函数调用，多轮对话，复杂角色扮演和 json 输出），仍落后于 DeepSeek-V3\nR1 在处理非中英文问题时，可能会出现语言混杂现象\nR1 对提示词较敏感，使用 few-shot 提示可能会降低其性能\n由于 RL 训练评估周期较长，R1 在软件工程任务上的性能提升有限\n押注路线方向\n\n数学和代码：是 AGI 的天然试验场，有点像围棋，是一个封闭，可验证的系统，有可能通过自我学习就能实现很高的智能。\n多模态：参与到人类的真实世界里学习，对 AGI 也是必要的\n自然语言本身\n\n下一代的大模型，还有许多未解决的问题。所有的套路都是上一代的产物，未来不一定成立。拿互联网的商业逻辑去讨论未来 AI 的盈利模式，可能是一种刻舟求剑。在做幻方的过程中增强了我们对技术驱动型创新的信心，但也不都是坦途，我们经历了一个漫长的积累过程，外部看到的是 2015 年后的幻方，其实我们做了 16 年。\nRL is all you need\nDeepSeek-R1-Zero 放弃了过往对预训练大模型必不可少甚至最关键的一个训练技巧 – SFT。STF（微调）简单说，就是先用大量人工标注的数据训练后再通过强化学习让机器进一步进化。而 RL（强化学习）简单说就是让机器自己按某些思维链生成数据自己调整自己学习。R1 Zero 完全用强化学习取代 SFT，实现让模型自己探索解决复杂问题的 CoT，生成能自我验证，反思的 long-CoT。\n但 R1 zero 因完全没有人类监督数据的介入，会在一些时候显得混乱。因此 DS 用冷启动（几千条 long-CoT 作为强化学习初始化 actor）和多阶段 RL 的方式，改进了训练过程，在 R1 zero基础上训练出更有人味的 R1。这种方法结合了监督学习和强化学习的优势，即可利用人类先验知识引导模型，又可发挥强化学习的自学习和自进化能力。\n\n高质量的冷启动数据，团队尝试了多种方法，包括\n\n使用带有长 CoT 的 few-shot prompting\n直接提示模型生成带有反思和验证的详细解答\n收集 R1-Zero 的输出，进行人工标注和格式化\n\n为了解决训练过程中可能出现的语言混乱问题，R1 引入一个语言一致性奖励，该奖励根据 CoT 中目标语言单词等比例来计算\n当面向推理的强化学习收敛后，R1 利用训练好的 RL 模型进行拒绝采样（Rejection Sampling），生成新的 SFT 数据，与冷启动数据不同，这一阶段的 SFT 数据不仅包含推理任务，还涵盖如写作，角色扮演，问答等，以提升模型的通用能力。开启二阶段的强化学习，这阶段训练目标不再局限于推理任务， 还涵盖所有类型的任务，还对不同的任务类型进行奖励信号和提示分布的优化。对数学、代码和逻辑推理，采用基于规则的奖励；对于问答，创意写作任务，采用基于模型的奖励\n\nR1 系列与 GPT 及 Openai 的 O 系列做法相比，在对待有监督数据上更激进，不过也合理，当模型重点从与人类交互变成数理逻辑，前者是有大量现成数据的，但后者很多停留在脑子里的抽象思考，没有现成数据可用，找大师们罗列标注他们脑子里的解题思路，又贵又耗时，让机器自己产生数据链条，是合理的做法。\n涌现\n在 R1 Zero 的训练过程vs，出现了涌现时刻，DS 把它称为『aha moment』。技术报告里提到，R1 Zero 在自我进化过程中展现了一个显著特点：随着测试阶段计算能力的提升，复杂行为会自发涌现。例如，模型会进行『反思』，即重新审视并评估之前的步骤，还会探索解决问题的替代方法。这些行为并非通过明确编程实现，而是模型与强化学习环境交互的自然产物，大大增强了其推理能力，使其能更高效，更精准地解决复杂任务。\n它凸显了强化学习的力量与美丽，与其明确地教模型如何解决问题，我们只需为其提供正确的激励，它就会自主地开发先进的问题解决策略，这一「顿悟时刻」有力提醒了强化学习在解锁人工智能新水平方面的潜力，为未来更自主，更适应的模型铺平了道路。\n开放\nDeepSeek-R1 遵循 MIT License，允许用户通过蒸馏技术借助 R1 训练其他模型，且上线 API，对用户开放思维链输出。直接在 Qwen 和 Llama 上蒸馏训练比从头训练一个同规模的模型要节省大量的计算资源，同时可复用已有的高质量参数初始化，打的一手好算盘，效果同样不错。\n在技术方向上，这也给业界带来启发：对小模型来说，蒸馏优于直接强化学习，大模型学到的推理模式在蒸馏中得到了有效传递。\n80 后的震撼\n当很多人发现过去赚快钱可能来自时代的运气，就会更愿意俯身去做真正的创新。整个社会群体需要被事实教育，当这个社会让硬核创效的人功成名就，群体性想法就会改变，我们只是还需一堆事实和一个过程。\n25年5月的AI成熟度盘点\n\n\n\n用途\n成熟度\n\n\n\n\n零代码编程\n20%（当前还是玩具，搭不出复杂系统，不超过数个页面/贪吃蛇游戏/计算器）\n\n\n赋能程序员，如 cursor\n80%（10 个人要做的事情，2-3 个人就做好了，沟通成本甚至低于人）\n\n\n数字人\n60%\n\n\n文生图\n80%\n\n\n文生视频\n50%（会动的故事书阶段）\n\n\n辅助决策/学习/写作（GPT/DeepSeek）\n95%\n\n\n做 PPT\n60%\n\n\nAI 客服\n70%（但无物理权限，要等具身智能前景未知的技术💥）\n\n\n\n据信通院的调研，2024 年近 五成企业代码行采纳率集中于 20%~39%之间，平均为 27.46%，同比提升 2.42%。次采纳率平均值是 30.51%。入库采纳率平均值是 23.33%。展现出智能开发工具的能力处于持续提升过程中，采纳率还有较大上升空间。\n用好 AI 创造价值\n大数据到大模型的历程\ntimeline\n    section 统计分析\n      2005-2010商业智能BI : 事后分析\n      2010-2015数据挖掘 : 事前预测\n    section 决策式AI 1.0\n      2016-2018领域级AI : 实时智能 : AI 嵌入业务流\n      2018-2022企业级普惠AI : 作业型数字员工 : 助手型数字员工 : 专家型数字员工\n    section 生成式AI 2.0\n      2023-至今AGI : 员工/场景有自己的Agent\n用一切技术创造价值\n在那些方向易于做成AI成果\n生产力和竞争力提升\n\n智能驾驶\n智能基站\n营销智能\n研发智能\n\n业务效率和体验提升\n\n客服智能\n物流智能\n办公智能\n\n防范关键风险\n\n交易风控\n信息风险\n\n大模型落地方法论\n加大AI投入，利用 AI 提升公司内部效率的八大措施\n\n定战略\n明架构\n强组织\n找场景\n用数据\n保落地\n做运营\n抓治理\n\n在过程中，要注意\n\n自己的降落伞，自己先跳\n聚焦业务价值\n守护资产边界：数据资产的边界=模型的边界=模型提供服务的边界\n\n而更关键的是『业务数字化的程度』，一些业务练业务流程都说不清，还在不断变化，过早搞 AI，甚至数字化，对 IT和业务部门都是煎熬。业务数字化的程度，决定了 AI 能不能落地。数字化程度一般决定了业务有否运营数据支撑，知识数字化治理的程度（大模型需要有质量的数据喂养），甚至有无持续运营的组织、资源、机制和能力。\nkanban\n  场景\n    明确目标\n    场景识别\n  流程\n    重塑流程\n  组织\n    组织变革\n  数据\n    数据和知识工程\n  IT\n    AI建模与发布\n    AI融入业务应用\n    AI持续运营\n\n场景和流程是第一层：重新定义智能业务\n数据和 IT的建模与发布，开发和交付属于第二层：开发与交付\n后续的都属于持续运营\n而组织贯穿三层，分别供给不同的人才\n\n引用参考\n1.张俊林.由ChatGPT反思大语言模型（LLM）的技术精要 ↩2.GLM团队.GLM-130B：开源的双语预训练模型 ↩3.稀土掘金.Github Copilot 程序员下岗指南 ↩4.张俊林 大语言模型的涌现能力——现象与解释 ↩5.张俊林 炼制“大语言模型”的两个现象 ↩6.清华大学 大语言模型综合性能评估报告 ↩7.新浪 DeepSeek-R1是怎么训练的 ↩8.百家号 DeepSeek 一个极致的技术理想故事 ↩9.牛喀网 不做 follower ↩10.百家号 Hinton揭秘Ilya成长历程 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI","浪潮之巅"]},{"title":"央行负债表解读","url":"/%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA%E8%A1%A8%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html","content":"\n人民银行的资产负债表自99年以降，均可以在线查阅。除去资产负债表，还有很多报表数据，可以了解种花家的很多经济指征。金融像水，信用货币（水）的源头在央行的货币资产负债表中，本文权且只从这张最基本的表进行分析了解。\n在纷繁复杂的现象面前，有很多半瓢水的专家解读，如何不被误导，需要具有更多的判断和数据常识，了解一些金融通识不无坏处。也是做这篇分析记录及知识整理的初衷。\n央行的资产\n\n\n概念解读\n外汇不用多说，在没有跟实物黄金绑定时，央行创造货币也应有一定的锚，一个简单的锚就是外汇，因为外汇是全体国民创造的财富或财富等价。\n非存款金融企业债权：维护金融稳定投放的（如15股灾向证金公司贷款+国有商业银行改制剥离呆坏账的资产管理公司资金来源-债转股）\n（占比大头）存款性公司债权=通过（公开市场操作【逆回购投放等】+创新工具+再贴现+再贷款） 向商业银行投放的基础货币\n\n2000 年之前主要通过对银行债权释放基础货币，到 2002 年转向通过吸收外汇 占款投放基础货币，而 2014 年以来由于全球化的出现回落，央行又回到了通过对银行负债进行基础货币投放。\n\n对非金融性公司债权=主要是央行为支持老少边穷地区经济开发所发放的贷款,规模极小\n资产数据解读\n目前央行资产负债表中有6成左右是国外资产，主要是因为2012年前，我国资本持续流入，货币投放主要通过购买外汇资产进行，也减缓了人民币升值速度。2015后资本流入放缓，央行也不再通过购买外汇来投放货币，而更多以增加对商业银行的债券来投放货币（借未来的钱的信用扩张，提前准备做大蛋糕的钱），如MLF，SLF等，经过几年投放累计，央行对其它存款性公司债券占央行总资产比例为32%【21年9月是33.8%】\n\n14年前，为了对冲外汇迅速增加，被动投放的基础货币，央行不得不发行债券（央票），来回收多余的流动性。\n\n\n其实非外汇类资产，都属于信用扩张（借未来的钱放到现在，促发展，本质靠劳动生产率来抹平，产能扩张顺应一般等价物要扩张，但消费不掉的是病态的结构性扩张，要等一部分地方的落后地区的劳动生产率来追上你扩张的速度），属于央行的扩表。\n中美央行数据差异\n美联储\n美联储和人民银行的资产负债表构成和货币工具不同，美联储的2021.11资产负债表可以在线查阅，目录页为 美联储资产负债表发布页， 文件相应的概念解读可参阅 传送门\n美联储的扭曲操作\n说一句美联储如何QE压低长期利率的。为什么短期利率再低(降到0)都无法压低长期利率？因为金融系统可支撑长期贷款的“长期性质资金数量过少”，正所谓“物稀则贵”，既然长期资金少，央行就投放长期资金，帮助市场增加长期资金，不就解决问题了？刺激投资，恢复经济。\n现代中央银行没有对货币提供资产担保，货币发行实际不具有信用证的特征，因为央行相当于负债经营，负债规模实际取决于执行流通所需要的规模。\n实体经济渴求长期资本的扩张，银行从本身来说比较喜欢更短期的借贷，这样的错配，需求部门不敢敞开了用，加之经济不好，企业存款多，容易推升M2持续走高（美元是世界货币，没有这个烦恼，本国经济不好，冲到国际上投资收割物资）。中国金融通道过多参与经济，对于整体经济成本肯定没有好处，压低利润率。\n人民银行\n\n央行资产负债表受季节性因素影响较大，财政收税和支出、现金投放和回笼，都会引起央行资产负债表规模变化，因此观察个别时点的央行资产负债表规模并无太大意义，关键还是流动性和货币创造能力。\n\n可以通过查阅 央行-金融机构信贷收支统计-金融机构人民币信贷收支表 来看各项存款，例如个人存款，企业存款，总额变动，21年传送门。\n社融和M2不一样，社融更有经济指导意义，但不是搞深度研究的话，看看 M2 也是一种简单策略，可去 央行-货币统计概览-货币供应量页面，21年传送门\n《货币政策的执行报告》央行也定期公开，相当于汇总报告，可点击访问，按季度来切分，且常规之后2个月出，可能嫌慢了。\n人行的特点&amp;优势\n\n我国作为全球为数不多的仍坚持货币政策正常化的大型经济体，不需要以央行大规模扩表的方式投放流动性\n\n我国央行资产负债表具有特殊优势，持续多年的稳健政策使得存款准备金率保持在较高水平，现在又开启了利率汇率的市场化，卸下了包袱。故，和发达国家央行购买资产扩表不同，我国通过降低存款准备金率，适当增加定向再贷款，可推动商业银行向实体经济发放更多贷款。\n中美口径差异\n中美的M1定义不同，美国M1中的活期存款特定指不支付利息的支票账户，这和中国的活期存款设定不同。中国银行把单位和个人分开，单位存款就叫存款，个人存款再加一个储蓄修饰，如活期定期储蓄存款。\n查过央行的报表，中国的M1包括企事业单位活期存款，不含个人储蓄活期，解释是因为中国的国情活期存款，也是储蓄意味，并没有立即变现的货币意味，故简化到M2中。\n中美央行的对比分析，可参阅华泰期货出的 疫情期间中美资产负债表全景分析，还有一个详解中美两国央行资产负债表\n人行基础货币的发行渠道\n\n二级市场购买国债\n向金融机构发放再贷款（94年之前占主导）\n购买黄金增加黄金储备\n购买外汇增加外汇储备（15年前，为维持汇率稳定，强制结汇，被动投放大量基础货币)\n\n央行的负债\n\n概念解读\n储备货币\n储备货币（归属于负债）= 货币发行 + 准备金【金融性公司存款 + 非金融机构存款，二者可视作央行担保的银行债务】。储备货币是金融体系用来创造货币的基础。\n\n货币发行归属于负债，因为老百姓拿的法币的纸，本质上是要换成别的东西的。\n准备金存款属于负债，因为冻结或临时冻结的，本应该在市场上流通的，当然也是负债。\n\n非金融性部门：不从事金融业务的普通公司（提供货物和非金融服务，是生产活动主要部门，最重要的资金需求部门）\n\n\n\n货币发行–占比30%\n货币发行（占储备货币的30%）=M0（存款性公司之外的部门持有的通货）+ 存款性公司（银行）持有的通货（占货币发行的6%）\n\n换一种说法讲 = 银行外流通的现金+银行的库存现金\n\n\n\n金融性公司存款-占比约64%\n\n存款性公司存款-商业银行（存款货币银行），信用合作社及其它将储蓄存款作为资金来源的储蓄机构 的存款准备金+超额存款准备金。\n其它金融公司存款-同理也是备付金。非银行类金融机构，接受证监会保监会管理，如证券保险类机构的准备金\n\n\n\n非金融机构存款（5.7%）：支付机构交付央行的客户备付金存款\n\n\n\n存款准备金中超额部分是银行可自由动用的，超额存款准备金率是决定流动性状况的重要指标\n\n你会产生疑惑，为什么储备货币又能变身创造货币的基础，里面有部分法定准备金（冻结）耶？\n\n这里面主要是其典型的债务属性，也是曾经投放货币的一部分，所以和货币发行归为一组。虽然是冻结，但按身份属性来说也是有理由释放的，这里面尤其是超额存款准备金，确实流动性较高，所以更多是看M0+超额存款准备金，且M0和准备金可内生转化。\n\n降准并不直接影响央行资产负债表规模和基础货币总量，但会影响货币乘数和资产负债表结构（法定存款准备金下降，超额存款准备金上升）\n在春节效应下，个人和企业通常又较强取现需求，货币发行会上升，在基础货币和法定存款准备金总量不变的情况下，超额准备金下降，银行间资金面会比较紧张。春节后一个月，现金回流银行体系，超额准备金又会上升。\n精要解释\n负债规模可视为为了获得资产(真实的资产+未来的资产)而印发的钞票数。分为两部分\n\n一部分是投放到实体部门（货币发行）和银行间市场（超额存款准备金）上的钱\n另一部分是曾经投放在市场上的钱，但目前暂时回笼了起来（主要是政府存款和法定存款准备金）\n\n超额存款准备金是可以支持银行货币创造的银行体系流动性，而法定存款准备金是被“冻结”的银行体系流动性，不能支持银行货币创造。央行资产负债表和基础货币中包含了上述两项的加总，简单用于分析货币政策取向的意义不大。\n与资产端的转换对齐\n基础货币（保留货币:Reserve Money） = 外汇 + 存款性公司债权（信用扩张） - 政府存款\n\n政府存款：当基层税务机关将税收上缴至人民银行或分支机构国库账户，企业在商业银行存款减少，计提的准备金相应减少，储备货币随之减少。相反，财政预算拨付或流向到商业银行账户时，储备货币增加。\n一般会呈现季初上缴（1，4，7，10月），季末投放的规律，随之影响储备货币。18年10月政府存款大增，可能是国地税合并的影响，不过又迅速拨付下去。\n\n近20年央行负债表关键数字\n货币发行，央行发了多少货币，自己是有数的，减去银行持有的通货，简单看就是M0的数字\n\n\n\n年.月\n央行国外资产 （万亿）\n中国外债（万亿美元）\n外储vs外债结余（万亿）\n存款性公司债权 （万亿）：承担信用扩张职能\n非存款金融企业债权（万亿）\n基础货币（万亿）\n货币发行（万亿） M0(非银行持有的通货) +银行持有的通货\n\n\n\n\n99.12\n1.45\n\n\n1.54 (当时国债0.16不高，应就是超发注入)\n0.38\n3.36\n1.5\n\n\n00.12\n1.56\n\n\n1.35\n0.86 （国企困难，债务转移）\n3.65\n1.59\n\n\n01.12\n1.99\n\n\n1.13\n0.85\n4\n1.69\n\n\n02.12\n2.32\n\n\n1.2\n0.74\n4.5\n1.86\n\n\n03.12\n3.1\n\n\n1.2\n0.74\n5.28\n2.1\n\n\n04.12\n4.7\n\n\n1.4\n0.9\n5.89\n2.3\n\n\n05.12\n6.33\n\n\n1.27\n1.32 （交行，建行上市）\n6.4\n2.6\n\n\n06.12\n8.58\n\n\n0.65\n2.2 （中行，工行上市）\n7.78\n2.9\n\n\n07.12\n12.48\n\n\n0.79\n1.3  (从8月开始大幅下降解困，之前变化不大，股民韭菜钱来解围了)\n10\n3.3\n\n\n08.12\n16.25\n\n\n0.84\n1.2\n12.9\n3.7\n\n\n09.12\n18.53\n\n\n0.72\n1.15\n14.4\n4.16\n\n\n10.12\n21.5\n\n\n0.95\n1.13 （农行上市）\n18.5\n4.86\n\n\n11.12\n23.79\n\n\n1.06\n1.02\n22.5\n5.6\n\n\n12.12\n24.1\n\n\n1.67\n1\n25.2 （12月前仍少于外汇）\n6.06\n\n\n13.12\n27.2\n\n\n1.3\n0.89\n27.1\n6.5\n\n\n14.12 （货币开始超发）\n27.86\n1.78【汇率6.12】\n16.97\n2.5  （自9月份就持续开飚到2.1）\n0.78\n29.41  （12月份前与外汇相差不大）\n6.7\n\n\n15.12\n25.38\n1.38【6.49】\n16.42\n2.66 （12月在外汇大幅下降下，政府存款突击拨付减少1.2进入银行，维持货币供给）\n0.67\n27.64  （与外汇剪刀差12月开始跳档，不回头地快速变大）\n6.99\n\n\n16.12\n22.98\n1.42【6.94】\n13.13\n8.5  （1月份就跳到5.2）\n0.63\n30.9 （突破30，按年看逐步继续上升）\n7.5\n\n\n17.12\n22.12\n1.76【6.53】\n10.63\n10.22\n0.59\n32.19  （前11个月未突破30.8，而后就在信用扩张的新台阶上跳舞了）\n7.7\n\n\n18.12\n21.76\n1.98【6.86】\n8.18\n11.15\n0.46\n33.1\n7.9\n\n\n19.12\n21.86\n2.07【6.98】\n7.41\n11.77\n0.46\n32.4\n8.29\n\n\n20.12\n21.8\n2.4【6.52】\n6.15\n13.34\n0.44\n33\n8.98\n\n\n21.12\n22.5\n2.75【6.35】\n5.04\n12.86\n0.41\n32.95 （与2017年变化不大）\n9.62\n\n\n22.1\n22.57\n\n\n13.47\n0.41\n33.12\n11.2\n\n\n22.6\n22.54\n2.64【6.7】\n4.85\n12.68\n0.17\n33.43\n10.12\n\n\n22.12\n22.69\n2.45【6.9】\n5.79\n14.31\n0.16\n36.1\n11\n\n\n23.5\n23.15\n\n\n13.17\n0.16\n34.42\n10.98\n\n\n23.6\n23.16\n2.43【7.25】\n5.54\n14.34\n0.16\n36.52\n11.03\n\n\n23.8\n23.16\n\n\n14.68(开始提前施展投放，化解自4月开始并7月重新掉头启动的信用紧缩)\n0.14\n35.36\n11.14\n\n\n23.11\n23.28\n\n\n16.99\n0.13\n36.32\n11.5\n\n\n24.3\n23.58\n\n\n16.35\n0.32\n37.09\n12.28\n\n\n24.5\n23.56\n\n\n15.64\n0.38\n35.76\n12.18\n\n\n24.10\n23.4\n\n\n16.56\n0.7\n36.18\n12.71\n\n\n24.12\n23.3\n\n\n15.64\n0.67\n36.8\n13.33\n\n\n25.1\n23.28\n\n\n18.46\n0.67\n38.87\n14.8\n\n\n25.4\n23.14\n\n\n17.39\n1.03\n37.38\n13.62\n\n\n\n\n外汇和外债的差（净结余）整体呈缩小的趋势\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"中国央行基础货币（外汇+信用扩张-政府存款）\"\n    x-axis [99.12, 00.12, 01.12, 08.12, 14.12, 16.12, 19.12, 23.11, 24.3, 24.10, 25.4]\n    y-axis \"基础货币 (in 万亿￥)\" 3 --> 40\n    bar [3.36, 3.65, 4, 12.9, 29.41, 30.9, 32.4, 36.32,37.09,36.18,37.38]\n    line [3.36, 3.65, 4, 12.9, 29.41, 30.9, 32.4, 36.32,37.09,36.18,37.38]\nxychart-beta\n    title \"中国央行货币发行（M0+银行持有的通货）\"\n    x-axis [99.12, 00.12, 01.12, 08.12, 14.12, 16.12, 19.12, 23.11, 24.3, 24.10, 25.4]\n    y-axis \"货币发行 (in 万亿￥)\" 1 --> 15\n    bar [1.5, 1.59, 1.69, 3.7, 6.7, 7.5, 8.29,11.5,12.28, 12.71, 13.62]\n    line [1.5, 1.59, 1.69, 3.7, 6.7, 7.5, 8.29,11.5,12.28, 12.71, 13.62]\n如何理解14年节点\n为了做大蛋糕扩大产能及外部输入，07-17年的10年间，基础货币也膨胀了3.2倍，11年前主要受外汇影响，从14年的12月份就启动明显的信用扩张，从15年12月份进入新阶段，大幅加速扩张，17年相较于11年，膨胀了1.4倍（外汇还缩了，本来不该扩张的）。按基础货币的理论平均来看，11年后房子增值1.4倍，是等同于理论通货膨胀率的，可实际上不是这么回事。\n从基础货币的数量看，货币的投放4万亿并不是一年砸下去的，而是逐步释放，且当时有外汇基础，释放给市场并不算冒进，但积累的财富支持进一步发展出了结构性的问题\n央行自己公布的数字，在政府当局网站可查。海通图表基础货币的量，对应货币当局资产负债表中-负债-储备货币一栏。如2017年的报表数据\n\n很详细的一番讲解，来自于 华西证券的详解央行资产负债表\n\n央行的投放冲动\n和商业银行一样，央行投放基础货币需要强信用支撑，在最初很多央行用黄金做支撑，但事实证明无法满足经济体对货币的需求；逐步不少国家央行用国债作为发行货币的支撑，通过购买国债（一二级市场）增加货币供给，非常容易导致央行被财政的饥渴绑架（买国债也不能在一级市场买，得包装一下来二级市场买），导致通胀飞涨。中国90年代初，欧洲比如意大利都曾有惨痛教训。\n中国央行最终选择折中方案，用高等级商业银行的信用+国债或者政策性金融债质押来作为支撑发行货币。但随着时间推移，商业银行范围扩大，抵质押品范围也大幅扩张到各类金融债和企业债。\n金融工具集\n央行扩表主要是再贷款，逆回购，MLF，PSL，TMLF，SLO，TLF（后面3种中部分甚至历史以来只用过一次，普遍意义不强）；不扩表只改变基础货币结构，主要是降准，释放流动性，扩张商业银行的资产负债表。除了降准，都有一个明确的到期日，一旦到期，商业银行需归还从央行的借款，这个时候实际就是基础货币收缩。所以这些工具有很强的刚性，为了避免货币收缩，到期时央行都必须续作（回收都一直是狼来了假的）这在过去3年的MLF上充分体现。\n\n\n公开市场操作：正逆回购，现券买卖（主要是短期国债买卖，目前央行没有这样操作），SLO，央票，国库现金定存招标。\n\n\n再贷款：支农再贷款，支小再贷款，再贴现等，地方中支经常也把SLF纳入再贷款范畴，因为SLF和再贷款都是由地方中支行操作。\n\n\n从央行实际操作结果看，基本都是MLF和PSL占主流，几乎所有类型的创新流动性工具和传统的公开市场操作不同点在于“定向”特征明显，也就是说一般都是一对一定向流动性注入，公开市场操作是一个相对更加透明公开的操作模式。\n再举几个例子\n\n\nSLF（standing lending facility 常备借贷便利），创新流动性工具最早类别。最大特点是地方中心支行对地方中小金融机构提供短期流动性支持，不是央行总行直接操作。由金融机构主动发起申请，一对一交易，针对性强，隐蔽性也强，传统公开市场操作，是央行市场化手段向一级交易商注入流动性，属于宏观调节。SLF指定交易对象，属于微观干预。（全国性股份制银行及五大行需要向人民银行总行提交申请）\n\n\nSLO（short-term liquidity operations短期流动性调节工具）和普通公开市场操作无实质性差异，只是期限更短（1-7天），操作频次更高更灵活，操作对象是国有大行或股份制银行，属于一级交易商中更优质的金融机构。16年底后都没有进行任何操作，总计也只用过12次。\n\n\nMLF，中期借贷便利，理论上期限有3个月，6个月，一年，现实中运用最广泛的是1年，投放量的绝对主力，成为了降准的重要替代品，反复续作且不断扩大，外汇占款停止增长甚至下降后平衡央行资产负债表的重要工具。\n\n\n货币政策药瘾易上难下，在MLF身上也充分体现，第二次大幅度上升是16年为救助债市杠杆暴力去杠杆，2个月大幅注入1.3万亿增量MLF。即便央行3次降准都明确提及降准释放资金一部分用来置换到期MLF，但事实上MLF后续依然快速反弹。\n\n\nTMLF，强调一个定向修饰\n\n\nPSL（pledged supplementary lending抵押补充贷款），实际上是央行和政策性银行结合的 货币政策财政化的措施，解决国开行棚户区改造的资金难题，开发出来的工具。央行向国开行贷款，国开行向棚改主体贷款。棚改主体通过货币化安置向拆迁户发放补偿款，地方政府拆迁卖地支付款项，棚改主体偿还国开行贷款，国开行偿还央行贷款，资金闭环。名义上是央行借贷给政策性银行的抵押贷款，实际上是央行直接为商业银行提供基建，民生领域长期限，低成本资金支持，变成了基础货币的投放渠道。因为他的长期性回账周期慢，导致在几年时间内基础货币增加，最终债务能否缩表不得而知。传统意义上，央行不能直接购买国债，不能简单货币政策财政化，否则会为未来通胀埋下隐患，但是将财政部换成国开行，进出口银行，再冠名“棚改”，投放了3.3万亿基础货币。\n\n\nM1和M2\nM1和M2并不能归结于央行的供应，M1和M2中的非发行部分（M0)部分，是由于货币在市场中流通，在商业银行系统中反映的统计数字，是市场内生的“表现”货币，并不是央行供应的。\nM2的解读\n广义货币创造的直接主体是银行而非央行，现实中的广义货币M2由银行通过贷款等信用扩张创造而来，是由银行自主实现的，并不需要用到基础货币。中央银行通过调节基础货币为银行货币创造提供支持和约束。\n在金融周期流通过程中，商业银行的信用创造能力实际不受货币政策和货币供给制约，商业银行的最终负债规模取决于商业银行的净资产规模和风险经营能力。\n货币乘数是广义货币 M2 和基础货币之间的恒等式比例。广义货币 M2 的创造取决于银行行为，而银行贷款创造存款后所产生的缴纳法定准备金的需求，央行既可以通过缩表的降准对冲，也可以通过扩表的再贷款工具提供，这意味着货币乘数其实是一种事后的恒等式结果。\n M2 就像游戏币，在庄家柜子里毫无意义，被玩家兑换后才有价值。这句话用以解读中国的 M2 也够精辟。\n主要经济体货币层次定义\n\n美国的定期存款口径较小，大面值（10w美金以上）定期存款计入M3，中日的定期存款则包含所有面值。美国M2中的小面值定期存款，非机构持有的货币市场共同基金余额部分扣除了长期储蓄部分，即个人退休账户和基欧计划余额，中国的M2并未做相应扣除，口径略大于美国。不过中日欧没有将货币市场存款，非机构持有的货币市场基金余额，回购协议和隔夜欧洲美元等包含进M2。整体上，美国的M2统计更为精细，且统计口径相对较小。\n\n中日M2统计口径较为接近\n\nM2增加是什么原因\n有很多人说发钞票多了，这是不对的。主要是两个原因\n\n一个是和我们的金融体系有关系\n一个是高储蓄率\n\n我们国家是银行主导的，银行自然就创造信用，另一方面我们的储蓄太多了，我们的GDP只占全世界的15%，但是我们的储蓄达到全世界的40%。央行这几年基础货币的扩张就是外汇储备，我们所谓的发货币是有基础的发货币，不是凭空发货币的，不是印钞票，我们的央行印钞票的成分很少。\n我们怎么快速“富”起来的\n在过去的20年里，尤其是01-11这十年里，我们钱袋子的膨胀速度要远超美日。有人说因为改革开放，有人说因为WTO，其实还跟我们坚持强制结汇有很大关系，对冲增发。\n我们因为廉价的劳动力在过去成为了世界工厂，别人干不了的活我们来干，别人吃不了的苦我们来吃。每次发生危机，四面八方的都来咱们这里开厂子，把做出来的产品再卖到国际上，用赚回来的钱进一步扩大市场占有率，扩大投资，带动大量的外资流入。那边不停进，我们这边就不停的对冲增发，01年往后，新增货币$2 \\over 3$都是对冲增发出来的。\n当前周期危机的表象本质就是货卖不动了：\n\n钢产量过剩我们提了工业供给侧改革\n农产品和猪肉过剩，我们17年提出了农业供给侧改革\n工农都过剩，实体就不好干，钱没地方去。势必催生第三大过剩，金融过剩，所以我们在19年又提出金融供给侧改革。\n\n现在解决过剩的方式就是倒推，给钱找个去处。一带一路，乡村振兴，来了。再把库房里吃灰的钢拉出来周围邻居搞一搞援建，刷波好感，给张家送温暖，给李家盖高楼。别生气，钱还只能这么“造”，在国内冲撞到民生领域，老百姓连小米都要吃不起。\n美联储\n美联储是全世界最大的印钞机，是无中生有的印钞票，在其帝国下半场的趋势下，美国财政纪律极其差（不断的债务扩张），自己印的最多，带动大家印钱跟进，制造舆论别人印，虚伪不厚道。【文化打手也是真的多】\n\n北美崔哥在他的微信圈里发一个文，说他有一次被邀请到军校参加毕业典礼，典礼有一个退役的四星上将做演讲，这位上将拿出一张100美元的大钞，说只用十美分就能印出这张纸，但为什么全世界的人要用好几百元的货物才能来换回这一张价值十美分、擦屁股还嫌不够大的纸？别的国家为什么要咬牙接受这种不公平呢，他说，就是因为台下在坐的你们（军校学生，也就是军队）。\n\n这就是真正的美国精英的想法，因为他们有军事实力，所以可以印钞票。美国财政部一边发大量的债，那边美联储就印钞票，就是发一大堆电子符号把债务买来，然后中国人傻乎乎的拿我们的血汗做出来的杯子、椅子出口到美国，换那些美元票子。\n人民银行\n中国央行放贷是要有真正的实物做抵押。所以批评说中国央行大印钞票的说法是错误的。另一方面，我们的央行根本没有开足马力发钞票，因为我们的准备金率很高。\n货币发行量最大的参数是什么？\n\n\n基础货币有多少\n\n\n准备金率\n\n\n准备金率越高你发的越少，我们的准备金率最高达到22%，银行收来100块钱的存款，有22块钱不能拿去贷款，现在降下来了，但还有17%。\nM2/GDP比率解读\n经分析，即使美国将大额定期存款等纳入M2，中国的M2/GDP仍远大于美国，以2014年数据为例，美国119%，同期中国193%。\n从国际经验来看，储蓄规模较高的国家，M2/GDP比率较高。\n\n中国国内储蓄占GDP的比重，1970年为28.93%，14年升到48.57%，09年一度是51.92%\n我国社会保障制度由“国家-单位保障制”向“国家-社会保障制”转变，教育和医疗改革都增加了居民收入和消费的不确定性，出于预防性动机，居民不得不维持较高的储蓄水平。大量储蓄放在银行，经由银行的中介作用满足我国经济的投资需求，并加速了货币扩张。\n\n\n高M2彰显中国金融效率较低\n美国金融创新工具（资产证券化）可使居民将属于M2的资产转换为收益更高的债券（M3），共同基金和长期基金，从而降低M2余额，一定程度上“替代”了银行货币创造作用。部分锁定成M3，货币能量更低，完成了流通对GDP的贡献，拿不出来而已，只要一直就业稳定/社会保障稳定，脑子不多想日子也能过，靠机构投资者收剪全世界羊毛供给这群无脑工作者(核心是你不取出来，我就尽量可以保持纸币不多发尽量稳定，只要美元全球环流正常就好，反正我是世界货币，谁也不想看见我印钱)。\n中国民营企业难以获得银行信贷，过剩资金缺乏投资渠道，存款水平较高。企业定期存款与M2之比从21世纪初的10%，扩张到14年的21.5%（在08年后显著提高）。\n中国储蓄率变化\n随着国民收入分配逐渐向居民部门倾斜（老板的收益在那里，企业间竞争+劳动力供给下降，迫使企业让渡劳动/劳务分配，也就是逐步向居民部门倾斜），居民高储蓄导致大量资金集中于金融体系，\n\n除了07年大量人炒股，存款占比暴跌，其余都是存款占大头\n\n\n08年之后，储蓄率走到历史峰值52.2%【资金运用结构，看图进入到保险的资金越来越多】后掉头下降，对资本深化形成较大影响。储蓄率下降，主要受经济增长率下降，消费增速保持不变影响。2017年住户，政府，企业三部门的储蓄率分别占22%，3.4%，21.2%，比08年分别下降1.2，2.5，1.5个百分点。政府支出刚性且减税让利，下降正常。企业储蓄率下降主要与企业增加值增速下降，劳动者报酬刚性上涨有关。\n储蓄跨部门流动（从居民到企业和政府）需求增加必推升金融业在国民经济中的比重，中国金融业增加值占GDP比重在17年已超过英美等主要经济体金融业比重。金融业扩张势必挤占更多社会资源，也算是一个突出问题。\n储蓄多了，推进住户部门财富和储蓄合理分布，避免储蓄淤积，也是上方头疼的问题，要让你们的钱拿出来，最好是直接融资，减少金融业扩张挤占社会资源。住户部门可支配收入占比上升是合意的，但问题在于住户部门内部收入和财富增长更多集中在高收入群体，财富差距持续扩大。\n共同富裕，平衡住户储蓄结构\n\n一方面积极推进资产税改革出台，进行调节\n另一方面扩大优质基础教育普惠供给，使中低收入群体人力资本获得更快增长。\n\n贫富的分布：6‱\n\n万分之六\n\n何被称为有钱人，在金融机构的眼中，你得有私人银行的账户。私行的条件就是你的优质现金流达到一个水平，以招行为例大概就是1000w左右。\n据各大行2020年报数据显示，大概有90w人达到这个标准，每10000人中有6个人才称得上是富人。不要以为这个资金池子小，富人们手握的财富超过穷人想象。招行8w多私行客户，账户平均资产是2700w+，简单乘一下就是22万亿，他们的财富占到了金融财富的30%，07年的时候这个数字还不到10%，也就是万分之六的人坐拥1/3的金融财富。\n如果再把中产（招行为样本把金葵花当门槛）算进去，就是不到2%的人，占有80%的资产，这告诉了我们劳动力的增长速度是跑不过资本的增长速度的，凭打工逆袭成富人结论大概率是残酷的。\n\n占比1.84%的金葵花及以上客户占了81.2%的财富，2020年还继续提升，中产和中产的资源均在增加。\n私人银行客户视作富人，富人占比0.06%，掌握31.03%财富，户均资产2775w。\n中产占比1.9%，掌握51.12%的财富，户均152w。\n普通人占比98%，掌握17.85%的财富，户均资产1w。贫富差距无法看扁。\n\n企业部门储蓄承压\n企业部门收入增长放缓导致企业储蓄不足，只能更多依靠举债维持资本开支，债务风险加大。低迷的收入增长导致企业资本开支更多用于购买存量资产，宏观上降低了储蓄运用效率，减税降费政策空间不断收缩，更多还是要靠改善产业组织格局和供求关系等供给侧改革。\n工业化进入中后期后，生产力大发展与总需求不足的矛盾会越来越突出，要解决需求不足问题.\n\n\n对外要努力扩大出口\n\n\n对内逐步扩大公共支出\n\n\nM2和社融\n社会融资总量，是全国整个实体经济（包括企业，居民部门，不含金融、政府部门）获得的融资总量。\n现代货币制度下，货币主要来自于银行的信用派生。如银行给老王发放了一笔100元贷款，老王拿到这100元，存进银行中，整个社会就多出来了100元的存款（货币）。这个例子中，发生了100元的社融，同时新增了100元货币（M2），社融和M2变化一致，为硬币的两面。\n现实中，社融内容很多，M2来源也多，两者不完全一致。\n\n\nM2不变，社融变动\n\n\n直接融资是存量M2的转移，例如老王买了A公司的债券或股票，小李把自己的存款（M2）有偿转给B公司使用，M2却并不增加。\n\n\n个人购买资管产品也是直接融资，个人支持的M2，变成了资管产品的M2，M2总量不变。资管产品再把M2投给借钱的企业，M2总量仍然不变（但增加了社融）\n\n\n有些社融，根本就没有发生现金流动，如银行开未贴现银行承兑汇票，这只是开出了一张票据，跟M2完全无关。\n\n\n\n\n来源渠道的不同\n\n除了信用派生（银行给实体放贷，购买企业债券，投放给非银等）外，M2还来自外汇占款，财政支出等渠道，这些渠道跟社融无关\n\n\n\n间接融资时间差\n\n如银行给非银放款会派生M2，非银再给实体放款则计入社融。非银通道的加入，把银行间接融资行为划分为了两个步骤，前一个派生M2，后一个计入社融。两个步骤可能会有时间差，但如果资金很快100%投出去，那么此不分M2和社融仍是统一的。但现实中不可能这么理想，二者数据错位是常态\n极端情况是资金空转，银行把钱投给资管（派生M2），资管产品则不再投给实体，而是资管产品间作击鼓传花的游戏，这样M2已派生出来，而社融则没有了。\n\n\n\n总结下二者关系\n\n分部门债务数据\n宏观杠杆率是指非金融企业部门（也就是企业部门），政府部门，住户部门的债务余额与年度国内生产总值之比。08年金融危机后，我国宏观杠杆率呈上升态势，20年受新冠肺炎冲击影响，更为明显。20年末我国宏观杠杆率为279.4%（美国为296.1%，日本为418.9%），比19年高23.5%（美日增高比较大，分别为42.8%和40.6%，但看波动量不如看绝对值，莫要玩汇报口径游戏）。分部门看：\n\n企业部门为161.2%，比上年末高9.1%；\n住户部门为72.5%，比上年末高7.4%；\n政府部门为45.7%，比上年末高7.1%。\n\n\n如上数字来自于人行的 2021中国金融稳定报告\n企业部门杠杆率是我国宏观杠杆率最主要组成部门，占比基本在60%左右，在主要经济体中位居前列。从某种侧面也反映中国还是有造富机会较多，否则企业就不敢举债了。从17-19年，企业部门杠杆率连续三年下降，合计共降7.6个百分点，有序释放潜在风险，为企业部门新增债务留下了一定空间。\n20年政府赤字3.76万亿，发行抗疫特别国债1万亿，地方政府专项债券3.75万亿，合计比19年多3.6万亿，稳经济稳就业。\n\n20年末央行公布的数字，住户部门债务余额73.6万亿（还有民间借贷？）-- 同比增长14.6%\n\n\n归属于金融机构个人贷款余额63.2万亿，同比增长14.2%\n\n49.57万亿(占78.4%)为消费贷款（住房贷款余额34.44，占总个人贷款63.2中一半稍多【54.5%】）\n13.62万亿为经营性贷款，占21.6%\n\n\n以平安银行零售金融 24年的个人贷款余额看，住房贷款 16.8%，信用卡 25.9%，消费贷 26.8%，经营贷 30.5%。虽然过了几年，小行的数据可能也不够典型，看有一种感觉是不是不少住房贷款搬家到了经营贷，让上层和金融机构嗅到了风险，不得不在 24 年让利降了 2 波存量房贷利率。\n\n\n\n以央行的债务口径来算，除以当年GDP101.6万亿，占比72.5%（社科院公告的只取了贷款余额，可视为62.2%）\n\n\n\n人民银行的数据更为准确，将未在金融机构的住户贷款中反映的居民债务也统计进来\n08年时住户部门债务18.2%，历年来一直在稳步上涨。\n\n资本市场的供给问题\n资本市场是解决金融为实体经济服务的撒手锏。2018年，全社会新增融资20万亿中，83%是间接金融，即商业银行贷款和信托等机构提供的资金，17%是直接融资，直接融资中又有一部分是企业债券等，约占10%，也就是说，93%是债务债权，7%是资本股权。这个比例显然是失衡的。反观美丽国，18年70%是股权融资，而银行债务融资和债券融资占比仅为30%。\n美国企业的负债率加总数据是GDP的60%多，而我国是160%，这就是我们资本市场供给明显不足造成的。\n这种融资结构的不合理，直接融资占比低，导致中国整体杠杆率水平很高。\n何为杠杆金融风险\n经济快速发展的同时也蕴含着系统性金融风险的积累，可以说是微观主体出于对盈利预期的乐观估计，积极扩大投资头寸引发风险敞口扩大和杠杆率攀升，也可以按达利奥的说法是长期债务持续扩张超速生产率过多，必然反制消费，引发调整。也可以说是市场经济的必然，有逃不过去的过剩问题。\n杠杆率的快速攀升是系统性金融风险加剧的重要标志，当单个部门的金融风险积聚到一定程度后，金融风险会跨部门溢出和传染，并形成系统性金融风险。一旦临界值到达或突破，经济，社会中就会爆发某些冲突事件\n居民杠杆率分析\n居民杠杆率在全球大体呈现发达国家较高，不发达国家较低的规律。发达国家金融供给充分及社会保障完善。20年9月，所有国家居民杠杆率67.4%，发达经济体平均值78%，新兴经济体50.6%，中国以62%计的话，低于发达经济体和平均值。但按央行的72%的口径，就高过世界平均值，仍低于发达经济体。\n以09年居民杠杆率和15年末比，居民杠杆率上升最多的是中国，说明中国居民突击了一轮加杠杆。世界前六的经济体，08年金融危机以来，都大体呈去杠杆的趋势，只有中国明显一直处在加杠杆的阶段。\n\n我国到现在还没经历过房价和居民杠杆率的大幅下降，也就是房地产泡沫破裂和金融危机。居民杠杆率高到何种程度会发生金融危机或房地产泡沫破裂，没有一个绝对的临界值，瑞士，挪威，丹麦居民杠杆率都超过110%，也没看到发生危机的迹象，日本房价崩盘时，居民杠杆率不到70%。\n常规来说这种寅吃卯粮的情况毕竟不能长期持续，如果原来储蓄多的情况下，长期债务周期带来的调整应还不会来，杠杆高过GDP，说明当前国家经济发展不良，在吃老本（余粮），但挪威这些北欧国家特别，人特别少，资源特多。例如500w人口，国家卖石油，简单的印钞机模式，哐哐来钱，虽然居民杠杆高，但国家杠杆不高，挪威的主权基金也确实在国际上持有大量资产，收益颇丰。从历史上爆发危机的国家来看，挪威吃其它地方的本钱还没有触碰到债务阵痛，侧面也说明其贫富差距不明显，保障好/尚有积蓄。\n\n欧洲的负利率政策，存银行还要给银行钱，也促成居民借贷消费。在制表和简单统计的出发点，一般来说债务是债务，资产是资产，不冲抵来输出，因为资产是虚的（算不算账面的浮盈呢），债务是实的。有债务也不代表其没储蓄。\n\n常规来说，一个平民积蓄不高（贫富差距明显）的国家居民杠杆率高企时，就会触发完蛋模式次贷爆发了，有钱人肯定没事。\n\n结语\n\n中国超发的是债务，不是货币\n\n我看了那么几天的资料，杠杆率远远比M2重要。因为M2是一个存量概念（历史滚动结果–有些人存着一直没取，里面还存在一部分钱坏账冻结了，因为商业银行的信用放大再创造，它仅是对应于一个财富计算方式，仅此而已。就像房价涨，涨了你原来是100平你还是100平，不能变现根本没任何作用），GDP是一个年度数字，直接来比并没有什么精确的意义。△M2/GDP还更有意义些。中国尤其高，说明放贷的金融行业作为通道在经济中角色偏重，分享利润，其实并不会是一个健康的发展模式。\n\n如果不产生坏账，M2再高都没有问题。但难就难在，M2越高，累积的坏账总额就越高，变成冻结的资产，有一种有害的经营。\n不良贷款（坏账）的产生意味着这一部分货币已在金融体系内沉淀（计提, 不知道是不是存入保证金–可放贷额度下降），不再发挥作用，因而降低了货币流通速度。经济运行支撑，银行肯定会叫自己没钱可用，倒逼央行扩张信用，经济运行需要投放更多货币，M2/GDP 比率随之提高。\n\n\n日本人也不是一个消费驱动, 同样没什么直接金融投资偏好的国家，所以累积下来比我们的M2/GDP高。但是我们△M2/GDP又高过日本。\n常规来说，负债率过高，寅吃卯粮在债务周期的影响下，对金融的潜在破坏性最大。也是这几年去杠杆之路的缘由。解读M2真不如去看央行的基础货币的量，这个才代表了整体的货币供应，才是整个社会的财富量体现。\n温和降杠杆\n比例于GDP，中国居民部门的负债已经较高，类比于同样贫富分化较大的国家，已接近于历史上出现金融危机的区域。所以国家在实操温和去杠杆。\n中国的人均GDP已突破1w美金，但到了居民部门，人均收入就只有4000美金，合每个月2000多人民币，借债发展之路如履薄冰。\n货币政策的松紧\n货币政策的松紧，关键看作为货币政策中介标的–货币供应量和社会融资规模。只要保持了货币信贷合理增长（这合理应该是与结果数字–GDP的比值），就说明银行货币创造的市场化功能正常发挥，中央银行提供的基础货币是适度的。\n上峰看不到个体，只能看到一堆堆数字，按照一堆堆数字做应对决策，作为个体，努力自我拼搏吧。\n来自24年的变动\n央妈下场买国债\n这是4月底的热门话题。\n货币发行开始和外汇脱钩了，也意味着新蛋糕周期模式开始了。这是货币发行方式的悄然变化（如果只是调节货币流通的松紧，大可继续用原来的MLF，SLF等），影响的是所有人口袋的转变。\n哪怕央妈嘴上说不是QE，无外乎是此地无银三百两而已。小日本之前搞QE嘴上也是说的一套一套的，渐进还是走向QE。\n\n从逻辑上推论，央行在二级市场买国债更类似日本央行的做法，YCC，即收益率曲线控制。日本的YCC方案，是控制政府的融资成本，日本的做法就是我国照抄的模板。\n\n仅从理论上，央行在二级市场买国债，只发生所有权的转移，不会产生货币增发，可以定义为央行的金融工具(一种解读目的是控债不是增发)，现实情况是，日本的YCC方案，本质就是QE，中国是否按此不断降低利率，是大家尤其是投资者值得擦亮眼睛关注的问题。届时央行的”资产“部分增加”对政府债权”，“负债”部分增加“货币发行”或“金融性公司存款”\n正所谓信用货币年代，九曲十八弯MMT是归宿。\n正向的视角：阶段轮动\n每一轮做蛋糕周期离蛋糕近的人，更易成为先富起来的一部分人。\n\n2008年以前，做蛋糕方式，出口赚汇，有多少美元结余，发行多少人民币，谁做出口谁赚钱。\n09年尤其是13年后，外汇无法赚得更多，限制了货币投放，就开始增加MLF，SLF等工具投放货币。最经典的是棚改PSL，用基建投放货币，谁做基建谁赚钱。\n现在将国债买卖纳入政策工具箱，无论是QE还是YCC，或者是债务置换也好，本质都起到了向市场投放货币的作用，同时也在为第三次做蛋糕打基础。点解？\n\n并不是所有国家央行都可以下场买卖国债，此举会导致汇率崩盘\n发达经济体都是在内部接近饱和后，制造业完成升级，有了向外扩张的需要，原有货币发行锚定方式已不适应当下的情况，才会改用国债作为货币发行方式\n对应的就是资本出海时代\n\n\n\n市场经济下，当国内劳动力成本不再有优势，制造业就会迁往人力成本低的地方，资本就会对外投资\n如不改变货币发行方式，就会导致国内市场中流通的货币趋于减少引发流动性紧张的风险。\n资本出去是为了利益最大化，对应的就是攫取海外发展红利，包括人口红利，资源红利\n全球化以来，我们的人口红利让欧美依赖上了高福利。\n是什么蛋糕\n资本出海时代带来两点变化\n\n国内低端制造业被淘汰，迁往发展中国家，高端制造业产品出口，吃到产业链红利，中国人和中国产品将被当地人吹捧，就像当年我们认为欧美人牛一样\n国内福利体系上升，以买国债发行货币的发行货币的方式，政府会把钱花出去，提升社会福利的同时，培育消费市场和服务业\n\n未来蛋糕在\n\n拿钱投海外吃中华主导的全球发展红利\n国内吃政府订单\n福利上升后培育的消费市场发展红利\n资本市场红利，货币循环的中华版中圆，中股，中债\n\n货币发行方式的改变都是发展阶段的变化，从打工者升级到包工头，再到企业老板的变化，打工阶级要会存钱，老板阶段要会花钱。\n参考\n1.cn.investing.com  USD/CNY历史数据 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"女性婚恋相亲窘境","url":"/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html","content":"\n“割韭菜”的相亲平台\n现实世界满足不了的幻想，相亲平台来满足你。现实中找不到理想的另一半，相亲平台都有。实际上稍微有点吸引力的人，身边的追求者都应付不过来，哪有时间精力来相亲平台登记呢？\n相亲的本质（看看这对 很难不相互嫌弃 的矛盾体）：\n\n一帮最不会给女人提供情绪价值的男人遇见的了一帮最需要情绪价值的女人\n再真实一点：一帮最不会追女人的男人遇到了一帮最难追的女人\n再再真实一点：一帮要求很高的男人遇到了一帮要求也很高的女人，他们能不互相嫌弃吗？\n\n在婚恋市场上，一旦你进入了相亲这个环节，虽然表面看上去你有很多的选择权，但实际意味着，你其实没有选择权了。不绕口来讲，女生相信花钱能帮忙找个优质男的；男生去相亲时想找个直接能结婚的，能减少追女孩子的成本的。双方为了自己的利益本无错，只是问题是断舍离意识可能准备不足。实际上市面上的优质资产它是不流通的，要通过花钱打广告的这种旺铺转让，它本质自然不是旺铺，并没有所谓的圈子小。\n\n可能有人会杠，相亲平台有高学历女士，男士也有年薪百万千万的。你要知道，一个人优点越大，而它依然找不到对象，要么就是有不小的缺陷，要么就是极度挑剔。另一面很漂亮或很帅的你更是要谨慎看待，摆正自己的需求，降低在相亲市场寻求爱情的期待，思维转角才识爱。\n男女方的相亲认知偏差\n男人想的是我越相亲我越不想付出，但是女人的想法恰恰相反，我越相亲我越要找一个能对我付出的，否则我等了35年白等了。反正沉默成本这么高，大不了再等三年呗，但是再三年，她的要求就更高了。\n但男人想的是，又过了三年，价格该打折了。所以这些男人和女人之间的需求，完全是错配的，且女性更难一些。\n女性的特质囧境分析\n\n男性剩下来可以简单等同为是因为经济条件，极少量是身高或抠门。女性剩下来多半跟挑剔有关。\n\n单身时一直难遇真爱的关键因素有这么两个：\n不知道对方什么需求\n比如很多女生以为男人喜欢的特点是女生读世界名著，钢琴，瑜伽，对小动物有爱心，环保做义工，有份好工作，吃有机食品不吃烤串，其实这些男人都不在乎。男生在乎的无非是温柔体贴加好看。\n如果把相亲的人比做滞销产品，还没找到另一半真正的原因，是你自认为的优点，根本不符合客户的需求。如果一个产品卖不出去，滞销了怎么办？这个时候，你不应该埋头生产更多不符合市场需求的产品，各种客户不需要的功能都加上去，越卖越贵。比如弹个钢琴，做个瑜伽，读书旅游，然后强行推销。而是应该立即停产，要么降价大促销，要么调整配方再出售。相亲也是一样的道理。\n\n高估自己\n其次，人都会高估自己。比如女生会高估自己的容貌，直男行规是平方/10。比如有位女性宣称自己有8分，直男心算6.4分，女生宣称自己6分中等美，实际上是3.6分。1957年美国一个实验也能证实，你觉得你的智商是否超过了社会平均？91%的美国人选择了是，反映到相亲市场也是一样的，90%的人认为自己在平均线以上，所以要求对方也要在平均线以上。\n慕强无法向下兼容\n\n大龄优质单身男 青年这个词基本不存在，但最后一个字换了，就有一大堆。\n\n大龄优质单身女青年难找到好对象，原因无外乎择偶更慕强。男性圈层中意的是贤惠更胜聪慧，优秀还听话，这点就很不符合现实。所以男性实际择偶要求降了一点，或者说更聪明一些，他们不要优秀的，只要听话的。\n优秀王老五的择偶条件绝大多数都是美貌与温柔并存，缺一不可，学历工作好当然是加分项。\n漂亮有能力她一定有个性有思想，这就是矛盾点，优秀男性择偶条件其实并不高，但偏偏筛掉了一大把优秀女性，从而导致优秀女性择偶呈现一种高不成低不就的状态。（2022年，100位女生本科录取，对应只有58名男生，比例都快干到2:1了，大学正在被女生全面攻占，这还是汇总平均值，有些省更夸张）\n**找漂亮弟弟？**同龄夫妻都容易被认成姐弟恋，更别说年龄差得有点的。一直捯饬自己也很心累的，老是气场问题，绝不仅仅是皮肤状态的问题。况且弟弟图你什么你也不是不知道，能走到最后概率也不大。\n城市相亲角\n城市二代大量进入相亲市场，在一线城市这是一群相对较难结婚的一群人。北京土著和上海土著曾经演绎过这条路。相亲文案里：独生女，深/京/沪二代。这种就基本表示富养长大，不差钱无危机感，挑男人就挑性格挑长相，可这这是男性最稀缺的资源，又帅有会哄我的，事业也不要太差，再对标自己家里得有套房，那灾难就发生了，北上的土著不少就这么剩下的。\n基本都是家长帮张罗，呈现一种皇帝不急太监急的情景。80,90 是主力，00 也出现了， 80 这一代的相亲角资源容易出现两极分化，要么只要求男性有担当，能供养，捉急要上岸；要么标准奇高不能降，毕竟都坚守这么多年了不是。\n糙话说找对象统共就分三类\n\n聪慧但事儿逼的\n愚蠢但忠诚的\n愚蠢但事儿逼的（社会新闻离婚案例里多见）\n\n人无完人，但缺点可以并存。高富帅有没有，比比皆是，但脾气呀你一定接受不了。优秀的好人不可能没有脾气，抑或白马王子就不会出现在你普通人身边，找对象还是要基于你的脾气和性格来做搭配决定，才能顺顺利利过下去，婚姻里一定不会出现的就是鱼与熊掌兼得，偶像剧里一样的棋逢对手，双强现实里一定不得劲，要么形散要么神散。不要总是看别人多好多好，他家锅底的灰是你想不到的 50 度灰，他家老爷们浪漫是你想不到的浪。男人就像食堂里的饭菜，虽然难吃，但去晚了就没了。\nquadrantChart\n    title 婚配的安娜卡列尼娜原理：不幸的多样化\n    x-axis \"刺头\" --> \"温柔\"\n    y-axis \"能力弱\" --> \"能力强\"\n    quadrant-1 \"A-强大又温柔\"\n    quadrant-2 \"C-强大的刺头\"\n    quadrant-3 \"D-又弱又刺头\"\n    quadrant-4 \"B-不添堵\"\n    \"解决问题同时还温柔\" : [0.75, 0.75]\n    \"能力不强但温柔\": [0.75, 0.25]\n    \"一边解决问题一边骂人\": [0.25, 0.75]\n    \"解决不了问题，同时还骂人\": [0.25, 0.25]\n\n能力强=能自己解决问题\n温柔=解决不了问题，能不能安抚别人\n\nC 找 B 是常见的。A 型不管到多大年龄，在婚姻市场都留得很少，男女都一样，结婚就看这个目标型。碰到想不开的 A，这时候你不能要求 A 长得高又帅，不能要求 A 父母怎么样。\nD型： 解决不了问题，同时还「骂人」。如果你自己是 D，那就变强大，因为（性格）刺头是改变不了的。D 如果长得好看一些，是能找到想不开的 A 的。\n结语\n人生每一步都有其必然意义，如果不结婚人生就能一帆风顺的话，那婚姻这个制度压根不会被发明出来。换种视角来看，是以孤单的苦来替代磨合的痛。当然如果你特别享受孤单，群体生活会让你感到病态的不适，没有一丝的羡慕，那也就没有苦一说，独处即美好（允许独美，尊重独美）。\n如失业久了容易丧失工作能力，单身久了也是类似的道理。爱一个人或与人融通相处，也是一种能力。所以了解对方的需求，合理评估自己，把爱他人的能力培育起来，比设计择偶条件有用。做好这些，相信真爱就在拐角处。\n婚姻曾是农业社会的生存&quot;刚需&quot;，但走到当今社会，如今更是两个独立灵魂的共谋，两个人敢不敢一起走新路，决定这场关系，可能给两个人插上翅膀，但也可能陷入一个『牢笼』，毕竟选择一个人，选择一段感情，其实就是选择了一种生活。当下，人们普遍处于纠结之中，很多人觉得自己很浪漫，但实际上真正做选择的时候，又很现实。而真正的勇士可以现实主义和浪漫主义并存，就像认清生活真相后仍然热爱生活。选择单身的人，以咖啡馆、剧场、书籍为伴，在孤独中与万千世界对话，也可能是『对生命可能性的诚实』，这个时代珍贵的就是每个人都拥有了书写剧本的权利。\n我们正身处一个新的大航海时代，今天的大航海是每个人向内探索的文化远征，是在快速前行的世界中，对自己精神锚点的探索。过去的社会像一艘巨轮，只要按部就班，就能抵达终点，如今，更多人像千万艘独木舟，在汪洋中各自寻路。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["社交"]},{"title":"好好说话","url":"/%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%BD%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D.html","content":"\n很多人觉得登台之后自然就开始演讲了，非也，第一件事是停住，得让大家看到你全身。大家在演讲时都会做手势，右力手就站左边，反之站右边，这样就有一个很大的打手势空间。\n能控场的人要具备三个条件：第一要有自信，没自信也不能从众多人中脱颖而出，第二要有逻辑，组织起来才有底，第三点要会控制节奏。但谈话还是要有质量，还要善于总结。\n尴尬与紧张\n难的不是尴尬本身，而是我们对尴尬放大后的担心和焦虑\n人如果紧张，说明还有精力，还有使不完的劲，你瞅瞅那些病入膏肓的人，哪个还能紧张得起来？如果你感到紧张就攥紧拳头咬紧牙关绷紧关节，自己跟自己较劲，把你全身的劲都用尽，气都不要喘，连续做个两三回，你就能便松弛了，因为你没劲了，也就紧张不起来了。\n\n不好听的话\n安慰：禁忌是把对方当弱者\n\n\n不要抢话\n\n\n不要分享自己的经历\n\n\n不要建议，不要给意见\n\n\n经常性的去肯定对方的情绪跟感受\n\n\n认可对方的能力和对现状的处理情况\n\n\n行动上去关心\n\n\n危机对话\n\n\n确定已发生的事实\n\n\n支持对方的感受\n\n\n表达承担责任的态度\n\n\n告诉对方你现在能做什么，给对方一个强有力的承诺\n\n\n批评指责\n禁忌\n\n\n不要把对方的行为恒常化\n\n\n不要揣度别人的意图：你就是故意的\n\n\n攻击对方人品或人格：根本就不懂浪漫，无趣，没用\n\n\n合适的策略\n\n\n先把情绪卸下来，体察自己的需求，然后跟对方去对话\n\n描述自己的感受，说出你的期待\n\n\n\n指出替换做法的影响\n\n\n拒绝\n\n\n承认对方的处境\n\n\n告诉不能帮忙的具体原因：甚至可以跟对方说我再考虑一下，没有关系的话我再考虑下，都比你稀里糊涂的答应别人强\n\n\n告知勉强帮忙的后果，为对方去着想：答应但做不到，后果还是对方受损\n\n\n告诉对方可以提供帮助的情况，或者推荐别的方案给他：晚两天再来借，或者找谁谁谁\n\n\n自我推销\n公正世界假设\n\n付出就有收获，做得好别人就能看到\n\n既然是假设，你懂得。除非你是一个特别牛的人，有专人围着你给你报道\n自我推销是成功者必备的能力\n错误的自我推销\n\n\n自揭其短。不敢说自己好，这是错误的，没必要一上来给别人介绍自己的缺点，缺点暴露时不逃避否认就是了\n\n\n流水账：按年份介绍自己\n\n\n充满形容词：空、泛。别人不会因为你口说自己是一个积极的人就相信你，甚至会通过你的外表去判断都不会相信你的话\n\n\n提要求：请大家多多帮忙、鼓掌、鼓励\n\n\n把名字拆开：并不是什么重要的信息，你原本可以用此时间说一些让别人对你印象更深刻的事情\n\n\n讲好自己的故事，打造自我品牌\n\n生活中都一直在做交易和销售\n\n你跟别人不一样，你很厉害，你值得信任\n\n用谦虚来自我标榜的人不会这么做或者说也做不到，这恰恰是效率的命门所在\n\n\n\n不要只讲一个大家好，我是xxx，然后就开讲产品或内容。要介绍自己的成功事迹（做到过什么），第一步骤把成绩拿出来\n\n退而求其次，介绍自己品质好，如乐于助人资助了很多学生\n\n\n\n告诉别人你怎么做到的：用具体的案例和细节，告诉别人你凭什么很厉害\n\n\n要点：简洁，用最简单直接的方式力证自己的闪光点\n\n\n一个人说他多好，尽管我们有点反感，但下意识还是会相信。正是自我推销的重要性\n\n\n减轻听众恶感的办法\n\n\n找到跟听众的相关性，对他们有什么用\n\n\n讲点非功利的品质：如参加公益活动\n\n\n讲更宏大的愿景信念和使命，自我推销成救世主\n\n\n原则\n\n\n真实才有底气\n\n\n不要前后矛盾和左右摇摆\n\n\n与听众相关\n\n\n找不到特别的成绩，就讲自己的品质曾经克服过什么困难，期望听众得到你品质不错，善于动脑很有毅力等等\n\n\n年终总结\n还是之前讲过的，千万不要有公正世界假设，你做的事情，领导真的没有你自己认为的那么了解，即便了解，你也要说出来\n\n峰终定律，论功行赏，最好拿出一周的时间准备自己的年终总结演讲\n\n在公司/部门的核心目标下自己的任务和核心绩效\n\n\n每个公司都有它的目标和需要的关键结果\n\n\n所以你上来不要说自己多辛苦，干了这那。而是从公司核心目标触发，从公司对你岗位关键结果的要求出发\n\n\n做了什么和做到什么的时候，一定要跟公司目标相关，这样会让老板觉得你是一个头脑清楚有大局观的人，先从公司的核心目标开始说\n\n\n报告绩效完成情况\n\n\n结构清晰：时间/内容分类\n\n\n成绩具体。作为大船的一个部件，你今年到底是什么状况，做到了哪一步？你对航行的距离做出的贡献是什么？\n\n\n遇到的问题和解决的方案\n\n\n不要让老板觉得你轻飘飘就做到了\n\n\n也不能回避问题，只说成绩。体现成长性和诚恳性\n\n\n\n\n额外付出：不属于你的岗位职责，但对公司的核心目标有好处。必须在你报告核心绩效后，否则显得不务正业（我的大船前行，而你还在东南西北乱晃）。\n\n\n感谢和分享经验（如果同事也能听到你的报告的话，就不要忘记团队协作别人的帮助，也能团结同事），经验能复制，对整个公司也有好处\n\n\n反思和展望：继续的决心和信心，及一个具体的计划\n\n\n如何口语化理解上面的内容\n\n领导让你做的，你都做了，故对你放心。\n你做的特别好超出他的预期，故对你有信心。\n你还做了他没有要求的，对公司有好处的，会觉得你特别有事业心，是一个值得培养的人。\n\n这就是年终总结要的效果。\n注意原则\n\n\n时间要短：领导其实没那么耐心，他们讨厌听人讲话。故不要罗里吧嗦，讲核心\n\n\n不要抱怨\n\n公司有这样那样的问题\n对一个东西最好的批评，是做出新东西来替代它\n\n\n\n不要过分炫耀自己的成绩\n\n\n不要说没有经过验证的话，需要具体证据或数字去支持\n\n\n可以去强调努力，但一定要讲成绩\n\n\n竞聘\n解决的两个问题\n\n\n为什么是你\n\n\n这个职位\n\n\n如何讲\n表达对这个岗位的理解\n赋予这个岗位一个跟别人不一样的更深刻的理解\n证明自己的能力\n\n你比别人更适合，也就是你的优势\n\n\n\n不介绍经历，去介绍经验\n\n经历只是流水账的告诉别人自己过去做了什么\n经验是经历之中，积累的对这个岗位有帮助的一些技能和技巧。在经验后要加背书，就是获得过什么成绩，往往举一个具体案例\n\n\n\n一个更厉害方法：讲出现有问题，讲出大家心里的痛点，提出解决方案\n\n\n兴趣和价值观，与岗位相符的地方\n\n\n在适合之上，多一份热爱，让大家感受到你对这个岗位的热情\n\n\n对价值的阐述，是一种非常高明的恭维\n\n\n塑造个人魅力\n\n\n往往支持一个人，不仅是认为这个人能力符合，我们认可的是这个人本身\n\n\n尤其在不熟悉你的人的场合\n\n\n两大保底技巧\n\n\n强烈表达你提供资源和帮助的愿望，也是展现自己能提供的价值\n\n\n示弱：展示谦虚与真实可靠\n\n\n\n\n表达信心和请求支持\n\n收尾让听众支持你\n\n\n\nyes，we can\n\n\n台上体面也很重要：希望大家支持你；让我们一起去建设一个更好的xxx\n\n\n失败了也能坦然面对，还是继续愿意给大家提供帮助，这种话不要讲\n\n\n饭局\n在饭局想成为焦点，还是一定要说属于自己的话\n模板：感谢、回顾和希望\n感谢\n将话头接过来，可以表达你此刻的心情，也可以说一些赞美的话\n回顾\n\n\n选一个人或一个群体身上最重要的品质和特征来讲\n\n\n也可以讲这个人给你带来的影响\n\n\n围绕彼此之间的关系来讲，发挥说几个短小案例\n\n\n一个点三个例子，比三个点各一个例子要好得多\n\n\n反复强调让能记得关键信息\n\n\n\n\n说一下这个人对大家的意义和帮助，最好也有具体的案例\n\n\n\n注意不要代表别人发言，如我们都应该向你学习都不如你之流，得罪现场的人\n\n祝福和希望\n\n\n怎么走心？人们说什么，你尽量不要说\n\n\n体察听众或你讲话对象的需要，有针对性，就会觉得你是用心\n\n\n技巧方式\n\n\n伤感式，悲剧更走心，是我们的天性\n\n\n力量承诺式\n\n\n圈出一个群体着重说，再撒面式也提及大家\n\n\n\n\n真是嘴笨，也不要用成语，就用朴素的口语比套话也要好\n\n\n即兴表达\n三类人不怕即兴说话\n\n\n肚子里有货，见过很多世面和知识\n\n\n储备多，例如主持人灵活应对突发状况，实际上他们对各种情况累积的一些应对方法在脑海中，越来越纯熟\n\n\n有即兴的技巧\n\n\n即兴的2分钟，可能是过去20年的积累决定的\n每个人都有自己的说话风格，这是跟他过去的语言储备有关\n争取时间\n需即兴讲话时，首先要做的就是争取时间，需要给自己一点时间去思考\n\n\n不能让现场冷场\n\n\n不能去跟别人讨论一个很复杂的问题，脑子才能抽出来想下来的答案\n\n\n几种办法\n\n\n重复问题，能争取几秒钟\n\n\n讨论几句如赞美问题，或者分析一下自己的心情\n\n\n多给观众机会，然后去选择问题\n\n\n问观众自己的情况\n\n\n鼓励听众鼓掌\n\n\n用问题中的关键词转移掉，变成一个更容易的问题或者说你的话题让我想到什么\n\n\n\n\n克服完美主义，果断开口\n\n\n脱口而出的人，大多数人都会后悔，少部分人觉得在某些瞬间，自己讲得精彩\n\n\n不再多想原则：大多数人对一个问题的第一反应，基本上就是他能想到的最好答案了\n\n\n顶多再反问自己一句：还有更好的答案吗？然后就不要再多想了\n\n\n你不可能在现场两三分钟想出一个特别棒，自己以前都不知道的答案\n\n\n不用那么迟疑，否则会显得很不自信\n\n\n\n\n说话三段论\n开头切入\n\n找一个角度，还是说其中一个概念，从宏观层面，还是从微观层面。\n\n\n\n你要说：关于这个问题，我想从哪里谈谈\n\n\n或者重复一下听到的上一个人说的话，如刚刚xx他说了这样一个问题，对这个问题….\n\n\n丢出自己的观点和说话的结构\n\n\n即兴表达由于没提前准备好，容易越说越啰嗦，一定要注意，不要啰嗦\n\n\n没有观点没有重点和支支吾吾都不要\n\n一定要用简单的结构，如问题+方案，问题+原因的等\n\n\n\n这里可偷懒用排比句，主持人特别喜欢用排比句，因为不费脑，句式结构一样，只需替换部分就可以\n\n排比句还不用那么有逻辑\n\n\n\n结束最好是金句，想不到的话，用呼吁行动方式去结束\n\n\n坦率破一切尴尬，这是最后的武器\n\n\n保持真实，不会有人会取笑你\n\n\n忌讲不出来还拼命掩盖\n\n\n积累比技巧重要，练习比学习重要\n\n\n好好积累说话素材，且多去练习\n\n\n学会争取时间，用几个小方法让自己多想一会儿\n\n\n克服完美主义，大胆开口，不要多想原则，结构性的表达\n\n\n实在不行的场景，坦率处之\n\n\n路演\n\n一般时间是很短的，最长也不会超过半小时\n\n讲清楚你的目标\n\n\n证明市场上，确实存在一个没被完全满足的需求\n\n\n人们愿意掏钱买你的产品，去解决这个需求\n\n\n未来向把公司做成什么样子，达到什么规模，有什么样的收益，描绘蓝图\n\n\n讲清楚达到目标的途径\n这部分你实际要讲的是赚钱的模式\n\n点子本身是不值钱的， 你想到去做一件事情的时候，地球上已有成千上万想过了。\n一定要告诉别人如何把点子变成现实，去达到在目标部分描绘的蓝图\n投资人关心的是收益，你不能让投资人自己去思考，投入之后能不能赚钱，能赚多少钱这个事情。你要告诉他，这个产品怎么卖出去，怎么就能达到那样一个规模和收益。\n还有一点，你的主要竞品是谁，毕竟它是你在执行自己的商业计划时除了钱可能碰到的最大障碍。\n\n讲清楚执行能力\n讲你自己和你的团队是怎么回事，你们身上有哪些品质，有什么东西可以证明，你们一定能把自己的目标和计划执行完毕\n\n\n有点子的人多，但执行的人少，愿意开始的人多，但坚持的人少。心潮澎湃的人，对于有经验的投资人来说，见得太多了。\n\n\n你的执行记录包括，你们产品获过什么奖项，你自己过去领导一个团队的经验是什么，有没有过创业的经验。把你过去的执行记录，干了什么，告诉投资人。\n\n\n投资人很喜欢投一些连续创业者，贴有坚韧、有执行能力，有执行毅力的标签。\n此部分最为重要。因为最重要的就是投人。投那些有经验的，愿意坚持到底的，有组织能力的，需带领团队往前走，投那些诚实的人。\n提出你的要求\n\n\n打算融资多少，出多少股份，融资用途是什么， 目前你公司的资金结构怎样，你自己投了么? 还是用了你亲戚的钱?\n\n\n这是一个报价的环节，你要对方付出的代价是什么，要掏多少钱，以及他得到的回报是什么，会影响到回报的因素，也要介绍给他。\n\n\n自己做陈述的时候就要说清楚问题，避免投资人对一些基本问题提问，会显得你准备的不充分。\n\n\n峰终\n不要以你和投资人间的问答去结束，做一个自己的总结。\n\n\n重新描绘一下自己的蓝图，用排比句更有激情\n\n\n表达你做此事的决心，可强调自己的信念和价值观\n\n\n给一个强有力的承诺\n\n\n整个过程，你证明两件事：你做这个事情，能为投资人赚到钱，第二件事，你可以帮他们挣到，不是别人。证明你是一个头脑清晰的人，适合创业的人，是一个值得他们投这笔钱的人。\n销售\n生活之中处处是推销，重点是用户心理分析，而不是一味的介绍手上自己的东西。\n用户的典型心理\n摸清心理需求，才知道在销售的过程中，应该说什么，应该怎么说\n\n你不要拐弯抹角兜圈子，你以为我不知道你想卖我东西？\n如果你让我觉得假，觉得不诚实，那么我不可能向你买任何东西\n不要总说你家产品好，多适合我，给我一个理由为何你的产品和服务适合我？\n证明给我看，我更愿意买\n让我知道我不是唯一买你家东西的人，他们买之后使用情况和感受如何，满意吗？\n不能买完这个东西后，你们就不管我了，告诉我会提供什么售后服务，不要跟我说那么多空话，如果我用了不好，会怎么办\n不管我多有钱，不管你东西多好，我希望付出的价格是合理的。首先不能比别人高，不能你突然降价，不能你是暴利的\n不要否定我，说我以前买的东西差，以前的决定多蠢，我不想听\n不管你说你家产品多好，价格都合理，做选择，我还是担心会做错，需要你给我一些支持和肯定\n不要与我争辩，我不想别人来否定我的观点，与我争论\n不要总是让我听你说，给我说话的机会，我希望最好感觉是自己做的决定\n一定让我感觉与众不同，很明智。我确实想要一个折扣，但不想让你觉得我是个抠门在意钱的人\n让我有个好心情，否则我付款概率会降低\n帮我去做选择，而不是一门心思向我推销，然我感觉你想把我口袋的钱，转移到你口袋中去\n\n一上来就罗列自家产品好处，像机器人一样，背词讲述并不符合用户的心理要求。这样你再热情，也很难变成一个优秀的销售人员。还有一种销售特别喜欢在说话时做对比，这样会让消费者陷入一个更纠结的转态。因为市面上的产品，很少没缺点只有优点，无非就是价格，产品质量，产品优缺点之间的一个平衡，所以你一上来就一直做产品的对比并不是最明智的。\n互动挖掘客户需求\n最好让客户说自己需要什么，自己怎么想的，他说的越多，你成功可能性越大。\n真正的需求，并不是表面的需求\n就如需要一个包，并不是为了包的实用性去买，而是因为虚荣心。你要准确抓住用户心理，抓住她想展现和炫耀的这种心理，去做推销。\n多数时候，用户要么不说，要么说不清楚自己到底需要什么，用户调研会有陷阱。就想调研“你喜不喜欢一些娱乐型的内容”，大家都说不喜欢，大家天天刷抖音，并不喜欢看一些深度的内容。所以她以为的和他最后的行动，可能有不相符的地方，你需要通过每次销售去验证“哪些是真正的需求，哪些是表面的需求”。\n具体的需求而不是模糊的需求\n减肥产品不能说你买完后，会变得更好，这种话就非常模糊。而是要讲：你一定要减肥，为啥，你给他看一个三斤脂肪的图片，看这就是三斤肉贴在肚子上的感受。才好说服对方其确实需要\n眼前这个人的需求而不是群体需求\n每个人具体的需求实际上不一样，你永远要把你的客户看成一个人，去细致体察他到底需要什么，而不是这个群体需要什么。\n问是一个特别好的互动方式，让听众自己参与其中，而不是你自以为是的强加给他的需求。详细的描述这个需求是什么样子，在什么场景发生的，他更容易觉得你说的是他们想要的。\n挖掘和描述需求，就是演讲的第一个部分，跟听众发生一种共鸣。\n介绍你的产品\n不要上来就讲自家产品比任何家的都好\n\n首先说你家产品有哪些特征和品质。\n然后说你家产品优势在哪里，如“得过xx第一认证”等等特别的优势。\n最后要说对用户有什么好处，这部分越具体越好，代入感才强。\n\n用户最喜欢听的是什么，是故事。如果时间允许，可以加一个产品的故事（如其他用户用过后的产品故事），来打动这个听众。\n促销\n\n能让用户现在行动的方法，都称之为促销\n\n用户虽然认可产品，但可能并不会及时去行动，等几天可能就去看别的产品。 另外，现场用户关注的好处，是如何满足他的需求，而回到家后，可能关注的就是成本了。需要用一些促销手段，让用户现在就行动。用户很多时候也是需要你去推一把的。\n低端产品可以给个限时折扣，高端产品可以强调稀缺性。\n\n100人中，可能愿意当下就行动的，只有10个或5个，另外20~30人，都是喜欢想想再行动的人。所以现场没有征服客户，千万不要丧气。\n\n肯定你的消费者\n在良好的自我感受和一个好心情，再去说促销的部分，会更容易帮助你去达成目的。用各种方法去肯定对方，让他知道自己做的这个决定是对的，是非常值得骄傲的，就会促进他的购买行动。\n“在我们国家，只有1%的人能看到这个机会，只有1%的聪明人，才能抓住这个机会”。如果再有客户崇拜和喜欢的人买过，客户不刷卡都难以相信。\n尊重选择权\n大家都喜欢有选择权，对小孩亦如此。\n在有选择的情况下，人才乐于改变；营造选择感的话术，并不是欺骗，而是从对方角度出发，表现你的关心和体谅。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["软技能"]},{"title":"如何拥有痛苦而又抑郁的人生","url":"/%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%8B%A5%E6%9C%89%E7%97%9B%E8%8B%A6%E8%80%8C%E5%8F%88%E6%8A%91%E9%83%81%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F.html","content":"\n如果想生活痛苦一些，照着下面做，疗效非常好\n坚持做容易的选择\n容易的选项和从众心理，是危险的。碰到挑战忍不住想退缩，多年后回头看，才发现人生的关键点，都是那些挑战。\n初期入场的难度是最低的，面对便宜的股票和房产，绝大部分人看不上。人生可以的选择会越来越少。\n人类的幸福不相通，痛苦却是一样的，想法千奇百怪，到了落实阶段，绝大多数人选择了容易的选项。第一个保持痛苦的秘诀就是一直做容易的选择。\n保持孤僻\n这个窍门就是保持孤僻，谁也别理，给自己筑一道隐形的墙，效果非常好\n准备好了再开始\n这就是第三个窍门了。黄埔将星璀璨的那几期，并不是学校教的好，其实只上了7个月的课，而且也没教啥，都是在后来的战争中成长了起来；\n这在商界中也非常明显，学习牛逼的去了美丽国，剩下的在中国市场化大浪潮中拼搏，挺过来的都是神人了。\n事情比知识重要，有事先做事，反复思考后充分意识到困难，就拖着一直不开始，停留在思考阶段，初心到头来你都会忘记。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"存算分离","url":"/%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB.html","content":"\n概念内涵和缘由\n计算是核心，数据是原料或产物，计算能脱离存储？\n概念窄化明确\n\n\n存储：持久化\n\n\n计算过程中的存储归纳为计算（cpu+内存）\n\n\n新瓶装旧酒？\n20 年前就有NAS-网络附加存储（使用 TCP/IP协议的以太网文件服务器），价格较贵扩展困难。重提计算和存储分离肯定要做出点不一样，我们放到后续展开\n综合言之，经典计算机概念中，都是移动存储到计算。但在大数据体系下，大家慢慢接受移动计算到存储（MR），哪怕 MR 本质都还是存储和计算耦合的架构.\n存算分离的弱势\n\n\n在讲分离之前，还是要明确完全的存储与计算分离是伪需求（网络传输与我们当前 CPU 的处理速度还是完全不匹配）\n\n随着技术的进步，瓶颈不是在网络速度，在磁盘 IO 速度，计算和存储耦合的架构缺点逐渐暴露。\n机器浪费\n计算先到瓶颈，还是存储先到瓶颈，两种情况往往不一样，时间点也不一样\n\n计算不够，加一台机器\n存储不够，也加一台机器\n\n这样粗放的操作架构中的浪费明显\n机器配比需频繁更新\n一个公司的机器配型（CPU、内存、存储）一般比较固定，业务的不断发展，配型需要不断更新扩充变化\n扩展不易\n存储不够了经常需扩展，耦合模型下扩展就存在迁移大量数据\nRDMA\n既然基于网络分离，又不同于 NAS，怎么装新酒？酒又是什么味道？\n前面说 IO 才是瓶颈，现有的网络机制又瓶颈？ – YES\nSSD 催生网络接口性能要升级\n\n10Gbps 带宽下，ISCSI 架构，iodepth=32，block-size=4k，随机读写，IOPS在 TCP 下能做到 160k，吞吐能力超过网卡上限的一半，远超单磁盘能力，所以已很够用。\nSSD 性能，单盘 180k 以上的 IOPS，NVME SSD 单盘 550k iops，SSD 时代存储网络中，呼声要变革现有网络传输机制\n\nRDMA 的特征描述与历史沿革\n目标：降低网络吞吐时延\n核心关键词：Direct\n详细解释\n\nRemote：通过网络传输\nDirect：没有内核参与，有关发送传输的所有内容都 offloading 到网卡上\nMemory：在用户空间虚拟内存与 RINC 网卡直接进行数据传输，不设计系统内核，没有额外的数据移动复制\nAccess：Send、Receive、Read、Write、Atomic 操作\n\n在 RDMA 技术下，吞吐能力比 TCP 高 6-7 倍，应用于 GPU 间，能带来一倍的时延下降，小包传输方面能带来 3 倍性能提升，能达到 2G 的通信带宽时延从 20 微秒下降到 10 微秒\n罗马不是一日建成的\n\nCPU 参与 TCP 协议栈的处理，封解包涉及用户态/系统态数据传递\nTCP Offloading Engine：主机处理器的工作转移到网卡上（万兆网卡一般都支持）\nUser-Net Networking\n\n协议处理部分移动到用户空间去处理\nU-Net 应用程序可通过 MUX 直接访问网络\n\nU-Net 的 virtual NI 为每个进程提供了一种拥有网络接口的错觉\n避免用户空间数据移动和复制到内核空间的开销\n\n\n\n\nVIA（Virtual Interface Architecture）\n\n标准化 user-level 的网络通信模式\n组合 U-Net 接口和远程 DMA 设备\n\n\n\n实施特点\n\n把资料直接传入计算机存储区，将数据从一个系统快速移动到远程系统存储器中\n消除了外部存储器复制和上下文切换的开销\n解放内存带宽和 CPU 周期用于改进应用系统性能\n\n通过专有的 RDMA 网卡，提供一个专有的 verbs interface 而不是传统的 TCP/IP Socket Interface，当数据路径建立后，应用程序可直接访问用户空间的 Buffer\n\n网络实现\n\nInfiniband（IB）\n\n专为 RDMA 设计的网络，从硬件级别保证可靠传输，无损链路层，可防止使用链路层（基于拥塞）流量控制的损失\n需要支持该技术的网卡和交换机：硬件成本+运维成本\n性能最好，可达到 40Gbps\n最早 IBM 和 HP 一群大佬在搞，有 10 几年历史，现在是 IBM 控股的以色列公司 Mellanax 在做\n\n基于以太网的 RDMA 技术\n\n支持 verbs 接口\n仅需使用特殊网卡，都还使用 IB 定义的 user space api\n\nRoCE（互联网圈火）\nMellanax 鉴于 IB 过于昂贵这个事实推出的一种低成本产品，较低网络标头是以太网标头，较高网络标头（包括数据是Infiniband标头）\n\nRoCEv1: 基于以太网链路层实现的 RDMA 协议（交换机需支持 PFC 等流控技术，物理层保证可靠传输）\nRoCEv2: 以太网中 UDP 层实现\n\niWARP\n\n在 TCP 上执行 RDMA 网络协议\n网卡特殊–支持iWARP（使用 cpu offloading），否则就丧失大部分 RDMA 优势了\n实际上用得不多\n\n为啥没成为标配\n技术难度\n\n去掉操作系统这个中间层，很多事情变得复杂化了\n\n新接口 ibverbs/rdmacm，暴露了很多细节，如内存注册，要考虑 RDMA 网卡缓存容量不够\n\n\n多数应用其实都不会真正去调 Socket\n欠缺通用成熟的 RDMA 扩展，不友好于上层应用开发者\n\n硬件成本\n\n需更新网卡和中间交换设备\n近几年才上万兆网卡，还不舍得换更贵的\n\n场景\n\n不考虑通用，真正有动力采用 RDMA 的，使用已经很广泛\n\n\n分布式 AI 框架\n分离式存储架构\n非必要情况下，都在考虑收益，如 Spark 这样的任务，真正有网络 IO 的 shuffle 阶段可能只占整个任务的 3%~5%，更多是离线，觉得未到非用不可的地步\n\n\nDB 篇\nNewSQL 的新趋势\n数据库集群的传统矛盾\n\n分布式事务\n集群吞吐量线性扩展\n\nNoSQL 和 SQL 的融合\n\nNoSQL 大规模，高吞吐，易扩缩容，自动容错\nSQL 的通用性，支持复杂查询，分布式事务\n\n架构带盐人\nGoogle Spanner（扳手）\n\nShare Nothing\n重点解决分布式事务和性能线性扩展的矛盾\n\nAmazon Aurora（极光/曙光)\n\nShare Storage\n存储分布式化，突破物理单机的限制\n一写多读，更高的吞吐量\n\nAurora 模式优势说明\n优势场景\n\n读多写少-性能提升\n成本是商用解法的1/10\n应云而生：节约成本，敏捷创新 – 企业上云的核心驱动力\n\n分离优势总结\n\n提升资源利用率，降低云成本。共享存储，空间扩展更简单\n相比一主两从的传统 RDS 集群具备更高的性能，写性能扩展\n更有利于数据库实例实现一写多读\n存储计算分离，且把存储计算的网络流量降到最低\n\n国产类 Aurora 数据库 Cynos（北极星）\n\n\n计算层：负责SQL解析、日志生成等；\n\n\n存储层：负责数据存储，日志归档，日志合并等。\n\n\n日志即存储，主从内存页同步\n\n主客户端不断将 CynosStoreJournal（CSJ）从主实例发送到从实例\n与relaylog不同，不用等到日志全部 Apply\nDB engine 就可以读到这些日志所修改的最新版本\n\n日志转换为页由存储层消化，只要主实例将日志持久化至Store Node，从实例即可读到这些日志所修改的最新版本数据页，特别适合一写多读的场景\nCSJ 比 Binlog 更底层，不讲细节，只描述能力，类型有如下几种：\n\nSetByte\nSetBit\nClearBlock\nDataMove\nuserDefined\n\nCSJ 的抽象尝试隔离数据库引擎，不仅局限于 postgresql，设定基于块/页的，都可以转换成这 5 种日志来，这种非典型的做法带来了理解的复杂性，也可以对照 Aurora 的文章来理解。\n用户态 IO\n\n提升磁盘操作效率：SPDK（Storage Performance Development Kit）provides a set of tools and libraries for writing high performance ,scalable ,user-mode storage applications\n解决网络传输效率\n\nRDMA（硬）：RDMA 与 TCP 对比测试中，可明显看到 4K 数据的传输平均时延缩短 6~7us（微秒），在 4K 数据的 echo 测试中，CPU 使用率降低了 65%\n日志即存储（软）\n\n计算层不再将脏页发送到数据层\n只发增量日志，存储层异步将日志转换为数据页\n写流量在某些基准测试下，能减少 60%\n\n\n\n\n\n分层设计（以兼容 pgsql 举例）\n\n灰色部分是 PostgreSQL 内核原生模块\n\n\nSQL 引擎\n\n词法/语法分析\n语义分析\n查询重写/优化\n查询优化\n\n\n\nAccess：数据库访问层，定义了对象的组织方式和访问方法\n\n\nStorage/Buffer\n\nbuffer pool和存储管理\n用文件接口对数据文件进行读写\nCynosDB 使用 CynosStorageClient 对 CynosStore 中的文件进行操作\n\n\n\n参考\n1.CSDN RDMA的三种实现方式 ↩2.博客园 详解RDMA 架构和技术原理 ↩3.腾讯云 CynosDB的计算层设计优化揭秘 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"学习风格与发展方式","url":"/%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n在鹅厂育龙培训时，见过一些关于学习风格的总结，认为符合观察到的情况且有代表性。总结学习风格是为了区分性的引导同事，以得到更有效的提升发展。\n\n迄今为止，承认特殊性的存在，是我觉得社会科学领域的结论能站得住脚的前提。再进行良好/有趣的分类分析总结，才有意义。\n\n学习风格差异\n就像每个出生的小朋友天生就有精力，性格差别倾向一样，不同的小朋友被有效对待的方式自然要求也不同。进入正式教育阶段后，每个人的学习风格也是有别的。大致可以划分为如图的4类，挑了一个有趣点的说明图，有两个类型的边界不是那么清晰，用英语来释义区别更加精确。\n\nACTIVIST（行动者）-experience: Do it!\nPRAGMATIST（应用者）-plan: Let’s try it out!\nREFLECTOR（反思者）-review: What happened and why?\nTHEORIST（理论者）-conclude: How can we do it?\n\n\n其中ACTIVIST和PRAGMATIST相比，只是更加激进点，两者的实践精神都都强。套用这套定义，自己更贴近REFLECTOR，看官们可以瞅瞅自己属于哪一种。\n培养方式差异\n不同的学习风格，配套合适的培养发展方式，才能得到更好的效果。\n\n乐于行动的，就适合在做中学。\n理论者更多安排些参加培训或让其进行分享。\n反思者适于自学或向他人学习，这类人一般也比较谦逊。\n\n封面图的内容还有一点精华的点是我之前看到的培训里没有讲明的：行动者的镜像是理论者, 反思者的镜像是应用者。\n总结一图\n\n一图胜千言，且看\n\n\n学习分两种\n\n\n一种为信息获取，就是读书看报上课听讲追新闻之类的。\n\n\n另一种是训练-把知识通过自己身体的加工再输出成某个成果。例如反复练习一个打球动作，把几页纸文档变成PPT，把读过的书用自己的口语表达出来。这都算训练。\n\n\n\n训练比信息获取重要的多，训练的好处是你把软的知识转化成类似于肌肉记忆这样的东西完成实质上的提升。很多人学习很用功，但是进步很少，为啥呢？也许就是这个原因，他们只是在吸取知识，但是从来不是给自己在训练。\n在没有压力的情况下，很多人没有养成自我训练的习惯，就比如我自己，做了很多信息吸取的事情，虽然领会快速，一点就破，但长期下来，还是离造就影响力差了一个台阶，现在开始通过写和不断修改日志开始刻意在培养自己的训练习惯，先把『百万成神』当做一个短期目标。\n组织管理画像分类\n情境领导\n从组织管理的角度讲，还有情境领导和PDP性格测试，也有四分类，应用面更加广泛，一并铺出，图片来自网络\n\n四分类不仅仅在大汉族历史里流行–我们什么都要凑个四大xx，花旦和公子都要凑够4，个体级别或许都层次不齐\n\n\nPDP 性格测试\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["HR"]},{"title":"家庭的觉醒","url":"/%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92.html","content":"\n导语：重要是成人自己内心的觉醒，我们越觉醒，离孩子的心便越近，也越能给孩子温柔而有力量的教养体魄、情感和心智全面成长的孩子。\n\n简而言之，人生健康比绩优主义重要的多。但整本书还是有阶级定位的，这一切很难在困顿国家/家庭中大范围讨论，所以若你觉得此主题虚头巴脑，你是对的\n\n镜子前的怒火\n是孩子点燃了我们的怒火，我们得想个办法让他改变变得更好，改掉坏毛病，这几乎是所有父母本能反应。你内心深处那个我的孩子必须是自律，优秀的完美设定受到了挑战，你倍感自己做父母的失败。绝大多数的育儿焦虑和情绪失控都源于我们的自我。这个自我是什么？它就像一个住在我们心里的形象总监，会觉得自己的权威受到了挑战，自己的价值被否定了。于是愤怒，焦虑，失望等情绪便排山倒海而来。\n但问题的关键其实在我们自己身上，孩子就像一面无比清晰的镜子，他并没有做错什么，他只是以他最真实的样子存在着，当我们在镜子前暴跳如雷时，不是镜子出了问题，是我们看到镜子里自己无法接纳的焦虑的，恐惧的不完美的影像。我们试图擦拭，修正甚至砸碎这面镜子，来让自己好受一点。\n但真正要做的，是转身向内看，去疗愈那个影像背后的我们自己内在的伤痛和匮乏，这就是家庭觉醒第一步。我们对孩子的要求，都是为了满足我们自己的自我，而不是孩子真正的福祉，你的孩子不是你用来炫耀的作品，也不是你人生的延续，更不是弥补自己遗憾的工具，他只是一面镜子，来帮助你看见真实的自己。\n内在的小孩\n\n镜子里让你抓狂的形象，是你被压抑的内在小孩的哭泣和求救。\n\n\n我们每个人心里都住着一个过去的自己，那个小孩可能在童年时因为哭闹被父母呵斥，不许哭，再苦就关小黑屋。可能因为考试没考好， 被父母冷落和羞辱，可能想要一个玩具被拒绝， 同时被贴上一个不懂事的标签，可能不得不放弃自己喜欢的画画，而去学父母觉得更有前途的钢琴。\n在那些时刻，我们作为孩子的真实感受，悲伤，恐惧，渴望，愤怒，没有被看见，没有被允许，更没有被安抚，为了生存，为了继续得到父母的爱，我们学会了压抑这些感受。把那个受伤，委屈，不被理解的小孩关进了内心的小黑屋。长大成熟了似乎已经忘了那个小孩的存在，但他一直潜伏在我们的潜意识里。\n直到有一天，我们有了自己的孩子，我们的孩子就像一个时间旅行者，用他天性中的真实，脆弱和毫无保留的情感表达，精准的一次又一次敲开我们那个小黑屋的门。例如一个妈妈只要看到自己5岁的女儿在公共场合因为一点小事哭闹，就会瞬间被点燃，会觉得无比羞耻和愤怒，会用非常严厉的方式制止女儿，在她自己的童年里，她是极度懂事的孩子，因为她的妈妈总是告诉她，家里穷，你要乖，不要给大人添麻烦。所以她从小就学会了压抑自己的所有需求和情绪，现在当她看到女儿可以如此肆无忌惮的表达自己的欲望和不满，她内心那个被压抑几十年的小孩开始尖叫，这不公平。\n表面上是管教，是为了孩子好，但深层未被觉察的驱动力却是她对自己童年缺失的嫉妒和不平，真正在对抗的不是眼前哭闹的女儿，而是过去那个强行被自己压抑下去的渴望被看见被允许的自己。\n每一个让我们情绪失控的育儿瞬间，都是一个宝贵的路标，指向的不是孩子的问题行为，而是我们内心深处未被疗愈的创伤，我们之所以想要急切的去管教孩子，其实是我们内在受伤的那个小孩在用一种扭曲的方式向我们求救，他希望我们能停下来看一看他，抱一抱他，告诉他我知道你当年的委屈了，我现在来爱你了。\n真正的觉醒不是向外挥舞管教的鞭子，而是伸出向内疗愈的双手，疗愈自己，才是给孩子最好的礼物。一个内心完整，情绪平和的父母自然会养育出一个内心丰盈充满安全感的孩子。\n坦然的联结\n真正的联接始于你全然看见他本来的样子，知道了问题所在，接下来最关键的一步是到底该怎么做。是不是我们什么都不管，任由孩子发展？当然不是，答案不是无作为，而是不妄为，是一种放下，转而全然与孩子同在的智慧。\n联接永远先于纠正，没有联结的管教只是压迫，而有了联结，很多时候你甚至不需要管教，问题会自然化解。当我们放下自我的执念，疗愈了内在的创伤，学会了与孩子深度联接，我们会发现一个全新的更广阔的世界。这意味着我们不再用二元对立框架去评判我们的孩子。全力支持他找到自己的热爱，并为此由衷感到惊喜，而不是仅执念于你的看法如成绩单。\n\n他内向、敏感，我们不再焦虑的想把他推出去，变得开朗活泼，而是欣赏他那份独特的细腻和深度，保护他那份宝贵的感受力。\n他是一个充满活力的破坏大王，我们不再只是看到麻烦和混乱，而是尝试看懂他们那份旺盛的生命力和探索欲，并为他创造一个安全并让他尽情探索的环境。\n\n我们不再将他看做一个需要被填满的空瓶子，或是一块需要被雕琢的璞玉，认识到他是一个独特带着自身生命密码的灵魂，像一个专业的园丁一样去观察他到底是一颗什么样的种子，是向日葵就给他阳光，是一颗松树，就给他屹立于风雪的土壤，不会强求一颗向日葵长成松树的样子，只是满怀敬畏和欣喜的陪伴他，滋养他，看着他长成他自己最绚烂最挺拔的样子。\n蜕变\n从一个焦虑的管理者，蜕变成一个宁静的观察者。我们见证一个生命的舒展，见证他所有的快乐，悲伤，成功与失败。\n不再把他的成就看成是我们的勋章，把他的挫折看做是我们的耻辱，只是作为他生命中最坚定的支持者。\n告知他的存在本来就是这个世界最美的礼物，当孩子能从父母眼中持续地接收到这样无条件接纳的信号时，他内在的生命力就会被彻底激活，会变得勇敢，自信，敢于尝试，也敢于失败，因为他知道身后永远有一个温暖的港湾，这才是我们能给孩子最根本的赋能。\n胡长的树-无用之用\n有用和无用，是现代人亟待解决的课题。在这个追求效率和功用的时代，有人为了有用随波逐流，长成了别人眼中的『栋梁之材』，但当整个社会只将这一种成材奉为圭臬，只认可笔直的树干和既定的轨迹时，那些蜿蜒的枝丫，自由的形态，便被归入了『无用』之列。\n如果把一个人比喻成一个树，那在优绩主义的影响下，我们一直在被修剪成有用的形状，是好苗子，要成为栋梁之树，不要旁生枝节，要遥遥领先，无🌲匹敌，要换上金盆，赢得世俗的全部认可，要一路披荆斩棘。在社会的丛林法则里卷成优绩主义的胜利者，看起来在人生这棵树上，唯有如此才可以交出满分答卷。\n有些金盆里的盆栽做到让所有人满意时，自己也停止了生长。当野性被驯服，当在精致的牢笼里日渐枯萎，当为有用耗尽心力时，你会发现，它符合一切关于成功的想象，却唯独失去了生长的内在动力与欢愉。\n野外那些胡长的树，他们不问东西，自在舒展，以它们蓬勃的生命力为我们展现了『有用』的另一种可能，它们或许不成栋梁，却为飞鸟提供栖枝，为大地投下荫凉，它们不循规蹈矩，却构成了自然最丰富，最动人的风景。它们的价值并不符合任何外部标准，而是全然接纳并活出了自身的生命形态。\n长不长，长成什么样，树自己说了算。生命本身都具有足够的意义，它更像是一场向内而行的旅程，一次与真我相遇的仪式。\n不要用学校和社会的标准去评价你的孩子，他一定是某个领域的千里马，你唯一的职责是想办法找到这个领域。能力才是重要的，学历是作为伴随产物存在的，故相比较学历就不重要。 AI 世代推进回归本源，回归能力，未来社会比拼领域深耕的能力，所以兴趣是第一位的。\n\n举例：语言天赋，逻辑数学天赋（喜欢探究为什么），空间天赋（建筑师、飞行员、画家，创造和驾驭虚拟空间），自然天赋（对自然界和观察设备感兴趣）、肢体动觉天赋，人际天赋，内省天赋（与自己的内在世界建立深度连接，自我调节控制，也适合哲学心理探究）、音乐天赋等\n\n结语\n我们养育孩子，孩子也在养育我们，唤醒我们内在最深处的智慧和慈悲，愿你终能跟内在小孩真诚相拥，也成为孩子生命中那面清澈温暖永不碎裂的明镜。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["育儿"]},{"title":"家驹六月天","url":"/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html","content":"\n刚开始听流行歌曲，是从表哥那里得到的一盘古惑仔的磁带。一开始是郑伊健的fans，那么帅的长发是不，视觉冲击力非凡，结合影视作品，古惑仔，话说说风云1的特效放到现在看仍然能打。\n忆不清是从哪里第一次拿到Beyond的磁带，应该是同学推荐的，结下了喜爱的缘分。在网络兴起的时代，也主动搜索过阅读过不少乐队的信息。可能在于Beyond40周年的推动，在23年竟然又看到听到不少没接触过的视频音频。感叹短视频爆发的时代，内容上传和传播的力量。\n转眼间，家驹已经离开30周年，时间飞快。各位Beyond的成员也都接近耳顺的年纪。虽然乐队成员亦有不和，但大家都感激他们曾带来的音乐力量和美好的回忆。按短视频里的夸张说法，如果没有Beyond曾经的存在，吉他行业（零售+教学）可能都要萎缩几成。\n为什么能传唱这么多年\n Beyond是一个有着左翼情怀的乐队，赤子少年心，谁不爱黄家驹。\n吸毒、性、自我放纵 这些在摇滚乐里常见的主题，在Beyond的歌词里比较少见，他们表达的东西和思想与其他歌手有蛮大的不同，能进入人们的内心，家驹的访谈也看得出三观吊打很多二十多岁的同龄人。另一方面音乐不仅仅是拿技术说事，Beyond的作品因为精神内核和编曲简单合理所以传唱度好和再翻弹频次高。同为音乐偶像，很多摇滚乐队如披头士有严重的吸毒史，克莱普顿也有种族歧视言论，东方社会的内核，反而造就了持续40年的传奇。\n\n摇滚乐诞生的基础是原创、原创、还是原创。虽然港台接触欧美摇滚乐要早很多，但摇滚乐基本和内地一样从 80 年代大发展。Beyond 做到了属于香港的音乐，而不是欧美的附属品，作品突破了粤语区，成为了一代华人的记忆。凭借极其丰富的风格和扎实的能力，示范了如何平衡作品的流行性、思想性和艺术性。家驹在商业高峰期展现了极强的旋律能力，同时保留两个标志性的东西：硬摇滚打底的具有冲击力的听感，内涵丰富视野开阔的歌词内容。前期偏艺术性，后期风格化人声旋律弱化，总结他们的职业生涯是充满探索、妥协和坚持的，丰富多彩的旅程。至于他们有没有被高估？看看还在流传的作品，就已经有答案了。\n\n探索期主要受硬摇滚，金属音乐和前卫音乐的影响，较重视歌曲的艺术性，还会有一些器乐曲目，明显能感觉到西方经典摇滚乐的影响。随着签约新艺宝，进入商业高峰期，不管是比较重的作品还是轻快的作品，大都旋律流畅，作品欣赏难度降低，这个时期的编曲也大都是旋律化的，成为 Beyond 最为大众熟知的编曲风格。家驹离世后，三子时期音乐开始更加风格化，优美又伤感追忆的《二楼后座》后，后面的专辑里进行了开放性的探索，《sound》 中爆裂的吉他音色，《惊喜》里时髦的电子音色，人声稍微退后，但硬摇滚仍是作品的骨架，增添了很多另类摇滚的元素，氛围感出色，但人声旋律的弱化，这也带来了商业性和传唱度的下降。\n\n摇滚传奇\nBeyond确实是香港最成功，也最有名的乐队，这三十年还没有乐队超越，有其历史原因，也说明其它的确还不够成功。有没有一个乐队像以前60年代的英国乐队披头士，他们的地位是很难超越的，他们出来的早，而且全世界都知道。Beyond就类似披头士的热潮一样，你要超过Beyond很难，但也不是不可能。\nBeyond去日本的时候，在香港已经是顶峰了，要冲出香港的话，内地市场当初还没开放所以不在考虑之列，台湾也尝试过，最主要还是日本有唱片公司看上了他们，认为他们在香港是一线乐队，应该可以在日本发展。对Beyond来说去日本是一种很好的挑战，因为日本乐坛，市场是和技术是非常好的。\n92年，Beyond前往日本发展，推出了《继续革命》唱片，在旋律和编曲上也有了更多的新元素。这张唱片的销量不如前一张《犹豫》，但却备受业界和歌迷的好评。新唱片《乐与怒》里家驹野心更大，与更多的日本音乐人合作编曲，主打歌《海阔天空》用了一线交响乐团进行编曲。不但同时推出了日语版，还安排Beyond上更多节目进行宣传，接受更多的杂志和媒体访问。从各种角度看，六月推出的《乐与怒》，都会创下Beyond的新高峰。\n人员变动\n世荣与家驹在琴行认识，当时世荣的band因为大家升学就解散，有的去其它学校，有的出国，只剩一个吉他手owen（关宝璇）和他。所以就需要找一个bass手，让老板介绍弹bass的人，慕名的bass手（李荣潮)同时带了他的朋友家驹给世荣认识，当时家驹应是一个制衣厂上班的采购布料的采购员。家驹好健谈，二人有一见如故的感觉。和世荣的吉他手不停的研究吉他。邓炜谦在录音室结识弹吉他的四眼仔家驹，当时家驹的工作是送信员，纯音乐大厦也部分来自他这份工作。\n1982.12月beyond正式成立，初代 beyond基本是邓炜谦引领他们（家境优渥点，听歌风格多），做原创也是邓的提议，之前大家主玩外国音乐。83年参加山叶吉他大赛，取名beyond最初也不是取超越的意思，更像是『以外』,beyond rock and roll。他们玩的算是摇滚主流之外的音乐，那时几个年轻人尚不开口闭口谈超越摇滚，但这个名字，也可以有多种层面的解释，大家都同意。家驹看到吉他杂志的一个比赛，只限港区参加，奖品为数千元的琴行礼券，还有机会和其他乐手一起灌录一张杂锦大碟，大家决定参加。\nBeyond第一场演唱会是83.6.11号，家驹生日后一天，也是这场演唱会导致两名成员跑路。当时只写过 5首歌，但大家都希望乐队更上一层楼，毕竟得了冠军，他们认为接下来马上要做的工作是扩大歌迷人数，所以在湾仔区艺术中心的寿臣剧院搞了一场演出，剧院是一个不到200观众的小场地，当天观众只有20、30 人，大部分都是自己的朋友。入场观众不足已是一个打击，开场前大家都有些紧张，除了世荣，另三个为了壮胆，都喝了酒才上台。结果家驹首先在又弹又跳的时候摔跤在台上，家驹自己都醉到摔倒傻笑不记得，另两位在酒气冲天的表现简直也是一塌糊涂，劲band 四斗士还小小还原了此事。\n本来有签约一家《音乐一周》杂志，演唱会后与他们立即解约。在83年底，李荣潮(出国上学，其父亲本也不喜欢他玩音乐)和邓炜谦（演唱会事故+风格上更喜欢古典慢摇理念差异）离队，导致9 月 Beyond 拍&lt;香港合辑&gt;照片–山叶吉他大赛副产物时都找不到二位，为了维持阵容，家驹就拉家强入镜，而后家强就真的取代阿潮做 bass 手。83.10 月再拉上世荣原来的吉他手owen，凑成二代阵容。无奈owen是社恐，没出去过公开演出只喜欢在band房玩，在 84 年离队。陈时安加入，成为第三代吉他手，陈时安英文功底深厚，在队期间乐队创作多首英文曲，85.4月举办首个演唱会前因离港升学而离队，Paul 作为世荣的朋友简演唱会海报免费设计，被拉入临时顶替，这就凑成了稳定的核心阵容。\n\nPaul 加入 Beyond 时，当时也是同时玩两队 band 的，但他那队中有两位经常吵架，本身就没钱，在band 房本来就争取时间玩，可一半时间用来吵架，算了\nOwen 离队后，84.12.1日就出现在徐小凤的专辑上，当起了一名职业混音师，找到了自己合适的职业，那时还很年轻呢\n\n为何四人走在一起夹Band\n驹：不知道原因，相信是缘分。性格合得来最重要，大家要无条件风险，肯牺牲，全心全意为夹Band而夹Band，不要盘算乐队能为自己带来什么利益。其实大家未夹Band前都各自有自己的乐队，那时兴一人夹几队Band，加强和我和太极的Joey，Gary，Ricky组成Laser Band，平日好少练歌，有人出钱请我们才练。\n当时在Mark I Studio练歌，练得密，收钱少。唱叁十首歌只几千元，交租都未够。Paul那队Stone更惨，帮市政局的欢乐篷车表演，最初收四百元，後来有人压价，收叁百五十元，最後更离谱，说「宾佬」只收叁百，不干就「宾佬」上。\nPaul最迟，八五年才加入。当时并不知道Paul会弹结他，只知道他长头发，喜欢听歌。他帮我们做演唱会海报，演出前其中一个成员「陈时安」突然决定去外国读书，彷徨之际，无意中知道Paul会弹结他，於是找他夹一下，一夹即合。\n\n「宾佬」：菲律宾人\n除了世荣不抽烟，另外三个都爱抽烟，但世荣酒量最好。\n\n弹 Band 最重要的是互相 Match 到对方的口味和感觉，不同时期成员对作品也有不同影响。owen是一个比较喜欢 Wishbone Ash此类比较传统的技术派音乐，如《旧日的足迹》时期的作品；陈时安则是位 heavy metal 的吉他手，于是他们创作了《永远等待》、《myth》等；而 Paul 格调较重 Purple 味，所以写了《再见理想》、《飞跃苦海》、《the other door》这类作品，Paul 对音乐的 Feel 最好，所以大家都很爽。\n\n84 年《myth》这首参赛时，把 Paul 和刘志远都折服了，埋下了伏笔。而 84 年基本都无影像留下，只有录音，所以没有陈时安当时的合影。\n\n最后一场演唱会\n1993年5月，Beyond在马来西亚开了一场不插电演唱会。天气已经很热，在没有冷气的场馆，他们十分投入地为上万歌迷演唱。没有人知道，这会是黄家驹时代Beyond的最后一场。\n唱到最后一首《海阔天空》时，家驹向观众介绍他的队友们：\n\n我们的吉他手——阿Paul。\n我们的低音吉他手——黄家强，我弟弟。\n我们的鼓手阿荣——叶世荣。\n我叫做黄家驹，明年我们会在这里开一个更加大型更加精彩的演唱会，1994年后见！\n\n黄伯失约了，大家意难平，但另一面如香港电台一则宣传视频里讲的：家驹，永远年轻。\n解读天才一词\n天才就是天上来的灵魂，是带着使命来的，他只是来办他一件事情，办完他就要回去。天才经常伴随着的条件或结果就是他活不长久，他无师自通，很快就要发挥他的才能，有很多非常特殊的才能，你哪里学学不到，然后很快就没有了。\n从这个角度来说，家驹是一个天才，在最光辉灿烂的时候把生命一下子玩到尽头，达成永恒，永远年轻。\n家驹和阿Paul的吉他对比\n两人的吉他风格不一样，各有优点，前音乐经纪人陈健添说如果硬要比较的话，家驹稍微高一点，因为阿Paul弹的比较正路，而家驹很喜欢搞创新，经常玩一些奇怪的音符和旋律，例如阿拉伯条舞女郎就是家驹所写。\n三子 vs 四子\n经常有谈及，三子音乐性更高级了。但从笔者的角度看，三子可以是很好的乐手，音乐性不降是有能力做到的，他们实际上在四子时代也是乐手的定位，做得很开心，当时的采访/上各类活动家驹回答为主，其余三人都很轻松，笑容满面。\n家驹是天才，他对世界，对衣着，潮流等有自己的理解和品味，也非常自信。一些事情不是自然的，你就做不到杰出。三子撑的很辛苦，的确撑不起一个 Band 的创作走向和市场化发展，无法产生更广泛的群体产生共鸣连接的创作，应了家驹说的吃力不讨好。\n\n如家驹所讲：譬如听到一些社会性的东西, 我的耳朵会慢慢走了过去,有些人可能没有感觉的嘛, 不是很刻意地做一样东西, 很辛苦的如果你太刻意做一样东西出来, 你会吃力不讨好。\n\n部分创作背景\n再见理想专辑\n\n\n早期art rock（亦称前卫摇滚）形式的歌很少人支持，乐队成员的离离合合让其落寞。在4人组合定型之前，很有才华相处不错的的陈时安的离队，给了家驹不少的触动。在83-84之间乐队虽然获得过吉他比赛的冠军，但早期属于在苦练技术的阶段。在陈时安（84年初到85年4月）加入的这段周期里，乐队的创作算是进入了爆发期，陈时安的英文功底非常好，经常创作英文歌词。如填写Myth和修改这首long way without friends，乐队在这一阶段也推出了最早的广东歌《永远等待》，大家都有参与歌词创作，作曲和编曲则由家驹和陈时安一起完成。\n\n\nLong是后朋克+前卫摇滚，使用了滑棒技巧。Myth是D小调+空弦，做出这种特别的和弦感觉。属于典型的前卫摇滚，乐曲结构复杂，戏剧性很强，风格轻柔舒缓，古典肃穆。《永远等待》前卫摇滚份额则小得多，以硬摇滚为主，带有后朋克色彩。\n\n\n\n在陈时安未离队阿Paul未顶替这段时期Beyond演出不多，忙于创作和练习，但创作无论从数量上还是质量上都有迅猛提升。\n\n\n\n《再见理想》做的像《soldier of furtune》，想构造出很惨很幽怨的效果，也表达出了Beyond当时的一些心态，离他们想玩的blues很远很远，默默着望着我的孤影这句是梁翘柏写的，大家当时在band房你一句我一句凑出歌词，也成为后日Beyond合唱歌的典范，合唱版反应不俗。对歌迷说你们放心我们会永远坚持我们的理想，写了唱完后几晚都睡不着觉的歌(可能是现场营造气氛)\n\n\n《谁是勇敢》是世荣填词，用中世纪的蜡烛，教堂这种景象去带入想象创作的，有反宗教的主题味道。\n\n\n《the other door》背景：一个人不择手段达到自己的理想，动用邪恶的力量。开头的门声，形容说是世荣家的厕所门，也可能就是二楼后座的地方。是拍子迁就solo的一种创作，很怪，但好听。\n\n\n《飞跃苦海》开头【笑声+哇xx】的声音，倒放出来是一句粤语骂人的话。\n\n\n永远等待专辑\n\n\n《Water Boy》：灵感来自叫water boy的英国乐队，里面的口琴是家驹演奏的，因为歌词没出现歌名，就直接安排远仔仔歌的开端录上water boy两个字。主题是讲部分年轻人理想飘忽不定，而对现实又不肯接受。歌词概念来自于白先勇的一本小说，题目叫做&lt;寂寞十七岁&gt;。\n\n\n随着《永远等待》混音版在disco成为必打热歌，电台也爱是推荐Beyond的第一首上榜歌曲《昔日舞曲》。《昔日舞曲》的背后故事是备着吉他路过湾仔一天桥底，看到很多无家可归老年人，被一位饮过酒的老年人叫住讲了一个多小时往事，老人家年轻时也风光过，但由于不务正业，结果家财散尽，无依无靠，根据此老人家的事迹写的，描写流浪老汉在晚年的心态。昔日舞曲虽电台排名不高（最高位置连前五名都未能打进），但播放率方面却维持了一段较长的时间。这首歌的solo在打鼓世荣的建议下做了节奏的切分，所以大家看到这般变节奏跳跃感的样子，不同音乐认知的碰撞。\n\n\n《金属狂人》的前奏世荣提议用古典乐章去做，造出很凄惨很痛苦的感受，配合受尽社会压力年轻人的主题，用一个强烈的方式发泄自己的内心。鼓的方面也很新鲜，像rockabilly（山地摇滚）风格的形式演绎\n\n\n《灰色的心》讲述一个生活在刻板社会的人，利用幻想曲逃避现实，是当时那张碟中唯一用键盘乐器的歌，因加强的参与在贝斯上花了很多心思以突出每个段落。\n\n\n亚拉伯跳舞女郎专辑\n他们听歌很宽阔，家驹很中意民族色彩的音乐，就尝试将中东的曲式放在广东流行曲上。\n\n\n《无声的告别》，是写给要离队的刘志远\n\n\n《追忆》是一个虚构的故事背景，抽烟追忆逝去的女友。\n\n\n现代舞台专辑\n\n\n《旧日的足迹》，写的是家乡在北京的家驹朋友刘宏博回到故乡，又回港后讲的他的感受和他见到的事物。小岛的键盘手孙伟明参与旧日的足迹演奏，那一段经典钢琴引子所带来的，就是那片消失了的旧日故地，也就是这首作品的神韵。对于制作来说，外来乐手参与除了能提供你本身所缺乏的技巧，专长和触角同时可将你的音乐进一步提升。也是Beyond早期作品中第一首最有流行度的作品。\n\n\n《赤红热血》在表达性方面，较为隐晦，因为中国人很难开放地去接受谈论性。\n\n\n《现代舞台》来自刘卓辉的批判性，每一句都像在骂人，批判娱乐圈，人生，政治，这首歌也称为专辑的名字，但这首歌市场反响并不大，但用字有很多沉音，令唱的部分较难发挥，相较而言Paul填的词更容易发力和记忆，对发生的束缚令家驹有所不满，但也坦然大地实在精彩，他们自己没刘那种笔力。\n\n\n《大地》讲的是台湾允许老兵回大陆探亲，分隔四十年的感受。到处寻找记忆，但老家已无一个近亲，更何况父亲，所以父亲是一个幻想出来 。儿时的玩伴，也都一个个变成花甲老人。\n\n\n\n最初家驹提议paul唱的时候，他拒绝了，但家驹鼓励他说，你现在在拍电视剧，这样这样大家容易认识我们。当时为了提高乐队知名度，成员们开始涉足影视圈双栖发展，当时大家也是为了让这个团尽快红起来。\n《暴风少年之黑仔强》1987年，贯中主演黑仔强，家驹客串“卷毛”\n\n\n《喜欢你》是家驹在当时女友潘先丽面前弹唱副歌旋律，并顺势填词而来。亮眼的分解和弦是Paul的创作。\n\n北京演唱会\n在北京演唱会前1个月，《大地》斩获十大劲歌金曲。88年是乐团的转折点，开始在流行乐团取得商业成功。\n88年10月15日，北京首都体育馆，这个可以容纳近1.8万人的场馆坐满了人。\n当时看到台下的歌迷都是朋克（风格），也有摇滚，留着长头发的，穿着皮夹克的，这跟他们在北京的观感形成了很大的反差，心想平常你们这些人都躲在哪里？。也发现很多没接触过摇滚乐的，看热闹过来的，一些年纪很大的人，开场时看到他们坐在第一排他们还很担心，因为离音响很近，结果一开始就看到他们全部把耳朵捂着，两只手捂着耳朵这样看演唱会。\n演唱会进行到一半的时候，就有半数观众离席，北京观众那时还无法接受粤语歌曲。大陆首秀并没有掀起太大风浪，崔健珠玉在前，他们的摇滚未必让大家买账。后来他们录制了国语专辑，朝向登陆台湾唱片市场。\n这片他们未揭开市场的土地，在黄家驹去世后又神话了他们。90年代，改革浪潮中的年轻人迫切需要某种精神上的慰藉。那一句“原谅我这一生不羁放纵爱自由”，足以让他们心潮澎湃。\nBEYOND IV\n\n\n《真的爱你》家驹和小美在餐厅定下母爱的主题，并一路延伸到整首歌，因为二人都很感激自己的母亲在音乐路上的默默支持，亲友多认为喜欢音乐的人赚不了大钱，出头机会不多。昂贵的乐器即是一份负担，但母亲们毫无怨言。真的爱你其实是let it be和弦做出改良后产生的模式，也是借用天分的体现。\n\n\n《午夜迷墙》原声流露着浓厚的pink floyd的影子，因为避电影黑色迷墙的嫌，歌名取第一段歌词的最后二字午夜，于是合成了午夜迷墙，里面家驹的滑棒吉他演奏也很不错，电影原声录制主要有家驹和世荣两人负责，家驹肩负所有创作及大部分吉他演奏，世荣负责所有电脑程序的编排。\n\n\n真的见证专辑\n\n\n《岁月无声》创作于88年底，是刘卓辉为麦洁文参加上海巴黎世界歌唱比赛而写，可惜没得奖，冠军为林楚琪所得。以一个中国人在大陆旅游所生的感慨为题，以历尽沧桑的老人姿态来写。\n\n\n《无悔这一生》讲香港人流落异乡的感情和心态，为TVB台庆剧所做。\n\n\n《明日世界》原版是林楚麒89年收录的&lt;怨你没留下&gt;，家驹作曲家强填词，由于歌词以女性为第一视角，因此阿Paul只好将歌词重新改写，让大家更实在的体验再深一层的Beyond风格。\n\n\n灰色轨迹\n《灰色轨迹》根据天若有情主角填写，电影原声中四首，一首罗大佑的追梦人，另三首均为Beyond做的，或许灰色轨迹是四首歌里流行得最久的一首。\n命运派对\n\n《光辉岁月》就不用说了，最初始创作概念是老兵回乡探亲，后来想想很普通，看新闻看到黑人领袖曼德拉，种族问题的不正确就成了要表达的事情。\n《无泪的疑惑》是刘卓辉第一首为Beyond写的情歌，其实词作者本人并不是很满意，因为觉得没什么特别之处，但意向不到的是，这首歌日后也有很多人提及，作为作者理解下来认为歌名本身已经带有思念家驹的味道。\n《可知道》的曲在5月份早就写好，经理人知道要去新几内亚时，就跟家驹讲要准备给这次探访写首新歌，在电台肯定会取得播放优势。当时时间不够，7月开心鬼上映，9月大碟必须要出，就问家驹认为新唱片里哪首可给新几内亚用，他说那首有点像phil Colins的作品，然后就决定先把音乐部分录好，回来把词填好然后录唱，两三天肯定可以完成。唱片其它歌就先把mixing录好，因此，可知道并非是Beyond的编曲，而是交由监制独自处理。从新几内亚回来后，家驹在两天内完成了歌词，就是现在看到的作品。\n《送给不懂怎去保护环境的人（包括我）》，应商台退出的环保专辑促成的作品，刘卓辉特意加上包括我，以免让人产生不快，专辑名为《绿色自由新一代》，集合当时香港最有名10支乐队。\n\n犹豫专辑\n《谁伴我闯荡》也是体现一种年轻人集体的情绪，对于理想的追寻和失落，孤立无援世界里实现理想的困难与无奈，于是容易引起共鸣，但不得不说，吉他独奏非常出色。\n继续革命\n\n《长城》是第一首日本制造的中文主打歌，找来喜多郎参与编曲，感觉很华丽，demo送来的时候，伴奏已经录好，上面写着长城二字，难免会让人想起中国的过去，但刘卓辉想要有别于一般歌颂长城的歌曲，不可流连过去的辉煌，可以说更多是刘卓辉的笔力和意向。\n《农民》歌词灵感来自两套老电影红高粱，黄土地，曲是文武英杰宣言的慢拍版，编曲不一样了。\n《厌倦寂寞》，《温暖的家乡》，《遥望》都是反映他们在日本的生活状态，都是他们自己的感受，内容都是关于想念。阿Paul比较直白，就是想家。家驹用想歌迷，想情人来表达。\n《可否冲破》概念是因为他们那时踏入而立二年，是一个新的开始，很多想法都不同了，应该更有远见点，所以世荣就写了这份歌词\n《快乐王国》是因为卡通化的音乐，讲的童年的梦想和嬉戏的情形，人成熟之后，可缅怀童年欢乐的时光，这就是歌表达的内容。\n\n乐与怒\n\n《命运是你家》，是九龙皇帝，曾灶财，整天在天桥底下画字。《wish you were here》是其曲调模仿源头。\n《情人》是刘卓辉与Beyond四子时期合作的最后一首歌曲，93年创作，原名是大陆情人，也许是家驹知道他在内地有女朋友，跨越中港两地的感情关系。\n\n海阔天空\n《Piano Song》是Beyond第一次真正的弦乐团为歌曲配乐，而不是香港惯用的电子乐器模拟效果，后来证明，歌曲由此而来的感染力超过了人们的想象。最早由家驹自弹自唱的demo已丢失，负责录音的是有古典音乐背景的韩裔日籍音乐制作人梁邦彦，他请来30多位管弦乐手组成的桑野圣乐团到录音室。原本梁邦彦只负责创作钢琴部分，后来进一步完成了开场和间奏的钢琴演奏，并和乐队一致商定用弦乐增加节奏感和力量感。\n\n在抖音上听到一个家驹在不插电节目上唱 海阔天空的片段，第二重复段唱到谁人都xx，不知道是忘词还是情绪，突然用哼唱替代，阿Paul都吃惊。下面的点评很特别：这首歌家驹可能还没我们熟悉，毕竟他才唱了几个月，我们唱了三十年。\n\n从无人识到时代绝唱\n93年5月，海阔天空最开始在电台播放时候并不如Amani，光辉岁月等反响好，电台排行榜成绩普通，听众一开始并没有什么特别的反应，因为仅仅是乐队10周年的心路写照，讲述个人理想，是一首普通的Beyond歌，专辑《乐与怒》在杂志评分也只有三星半，媒体访问也几乎不提这首歌。没有那几首有故事性[1]。\n\n香港电台的DJ梁兆辉回忆说：「因为那首歌慢热，所以播了一阵就停了。」\n5分24秒的歌曲对那时的电台来说太长了。即使这首歌在送到电台时被唱片公司剪成了4分钟的版本，仍然无法瞬间抓住听众的耳朵。\n同一时期，排行榜上热播的是草蜢的《世界会变得很美》，黎明的《夏日烧着了》，张学友的《只想一生跟你走》和刘德华的《该走的时候》。《乐与怒》在推出仅三周后就被挤出销量榜前十。\n\n专辑的第一主打，其实是《爸爸妈妈》– 中英谈判启发的摇滚歌曲，首次加插粤语rap，而并非《海阔天空》。\n《乐与怒》跌出销量榜前十之际，Beyond全体再度前往日本，宣传即将推出的日文版迷你专辑《This is Love 1》。直至不幸意外出现，大家才推崇这首歌到另外一个世界，（这首歌）才得到更大的回响\n首批出货两万余张之后几乎没有唱片店要求追加，但在黄家驹去世三到四个月内，专辑销量一下冲到了30万张。「共鸣、回忆，都在这首歌里」\n特别纪念集92~93\n《为了你为了我》刘卓辉填词原不是为Beyond写的，是给新人蔡兴麟，由Beyond第一代唱片监制王纪华制作，乐器演奏也无Beyond参与，后来又是给家驹重唱才变得为人熟知。要是早知道家驹会唱，刘就不会用这么情歌的歌名，因为并不贴近Beyond的风格。\n陨落\n\n\n上面是一则国语采访视频（可窗口弹出播放），家驹讲他在富士山学日本话，所以觉得很辛苦，学日本话就花了很多时间，所以觉得每天都很累，因为嘴巴很累，讲话真的很累，还要做广东专辑，所以工作分量比之前多了很多，很累很想睡觉（疲れる），也是他在日本经常讲的一句话。音频中语气满是疲惫，没有精神。每天满满的行程，还要熬夜录节目，如果不那么累，那天录节目可能就敏捷注意好自身安全，远离那个吞噬生命的陷阱，避免悲剧的发生了。\n最后的合照\n1993年6月23日，Beyond四子前往富士电视台录制游戏节目，为新唱片做宣传。中午，他们在一家日本杂志接受访问，摄影师给他们拍下了杂志的配图照片。接受完访问，Beyond四子启程前往富士电视台。\n夜晚，节目的录制过程出现意外，家驹不慎跌落舞台……随后昏迷，再也未能苏醒。日本摄影师无意拍下的这套宣传照，则成为了Beyond四子最后的合照。\n\n做个纪念\n吉他照+昔日舞曲手稿\n\n23年清明假期去通利琴行拍的，当然早有很多人拍过\n\n\n高中时的作文原稿\n\n结语\n其实吧，Beyond 四子也有偶像，创作过程中也刻意模仿很多外国乐队的作品。外国有很多极具引领性和风格的rock n roll作品，Beyond对大家更为亲近，核心在于其优异的中文化创作和强大的书同文文化圈。\n\nRock N Roll原始意义应该是黑人土著的”做爱“，格式上正好能跟其脱胎的rhythm and blues对仗\n在剑桥词典中 Rock做动词，有move backwards and forwards or from side to side in a regular way的意思，也有强烈震动的意思，Roll的意思就比较直观\n\n关于最终解散\n乐队解散几乎都是宿命，家驹在的时候在其协调领导下，大家能兼容相处。当这一人物缺失时，乐队的发展降速后，加速走向解散只是必然的结果。可能普通人天真的想，觉得都在一块那么多年了，那得多好的哥们感情啊，怎么能闹掰呢。其实吧，这跟合伙开公司也类似，不是哥几个在一起玩时间长了，感情会越来越好的，几个人尤其是几个老爷们在一块，日后越来越放大的是绝对不是你们互相的优点，而是缺点。这一点在各自成家后枕边人参与后，会更加的突出(妯娌关系处得好的不多)，君不见Beatles在小野洋子与列侬结婚的第二年就解散了，列侬和麦克特尼相互指责对方的妻子过分介入乐队的事务。\n好的一面的解释\n家驹在93年6月中旬的一次乐队会议中，也提出等Beyond十周年巡演结束后，打算将乐队的活动暂停一段时间，各自去做自己想做的事情。他也有很多个人化的作品，并不适合Beyond去演奏。据其前私人助理阿龚的忆述提过几次”希望Beyond四个人都有自己的专辑，因为每个人都有自己的想法，可以各出各的作品。“[5]\n坏的一面的还原\n不要听三子说天天说做自己风格得不到市场认可无所谓，其实很在意市场的。到了98和99年左右，三子基本到了强弩之末，风格走向越来越得不到市场认可，老Beyond迷觉得风格很怪，新粉很少但却觉得老粉土。《想你》拿到过金奖，发行过多个版本，但这首歌与Beyond老风格不挨边，和新风格也不像，但Paul对这首歌受欢迎很骄傲。当时签约的公司滚石也没什么资源给他们，资源主要集中在任贤齐等台湾歌手上，续约价钱也不好。\n环球的陈少宝一直很喜欢Beyond，分开跟他们谈，先重金投资了Paul，几张个人大碟很有话题性，那几年Paul很享受香港摇滚话事人的身份，脾气也比较大，单飞基本都只唱自己歌，陈少宝觉得和Paul沟通的不好，也开始扶持家强。家强有一些才华，但是不逼自己创作，不怎么太往前冲的人。你会发现他在94,95逼自己的时候和长空创作很赶的时候，水准还挺高，但平常就懒洋洋的，这样特质Paul看不上。\n家强单飞的碟风格不是很新，毕加索的马这张前面一些歌制作很完整，后面明显有些着急，但后面有些歌很有意思。世荣那几年刚开始坚持自己创作，产量很低水准也一般，后面也逐步声势浩大，拉了一帮北京老炮站台，那时音乐市场已经开始向内地转移，二黄对世荣打着Beyond名义演出心有不满，其实世荣签约的经纪公司都不大，也是手停口停，但唱功练出来了。所以03~04年大家看到了非常精彩的演唱会，三子乐器技术都在，创作能力得到了锻炼，唱功都很出色。那会儿大家也信心满满。\n之后《长空》问世，拿了金像奖音乐奖，家强很骄傲，但Paul参与不多，世荣也没参加颁奖礼去日本开歌迷会了。再之后解散，因为《故事》一歌发生了矛盾。家强觉得应三子一起，因为有点像再见理想之类的乐队歌，Paul说你做《长空》自己全搞定了我都没说啥，我写了你怎么这么多话。后来这首歌就没发表，那时Paul就越来越不爽了，后来在巡演途中发生了争吵，当时家强不希望解散，世荣可能倾向于解散，那阵子他在内地发展不错，也有很多乐手要养。\n08年搞纪念演唱会，三子最后登场，Paul依然很不爽，家强觉得提出单飞的是你，提出解散的是你，我忙前忙后搞活动，你啥也没干就在那不爽。二黄虽有短暂合体演唱会，但又因《故事》吵起来，谭校长当过和事佬都没好使。\n再之后借助微博的平台，事情越演越烈。Paul因我是歌手又火了，在13年纪念年份准备三子重组开演唱会，但当时世荣不愿意，因为他有其它演出也有团队要养，不想逢三就停下来纪念，Paul情绪不高当时也没工作安排，就有一搭没一搭的跟粉丝透露各种事，身边有一批脑残粉就跑到家强微博下乱骂，那时家强很生气，就把所有事都公开了，包括不想养世荣那句，世荣只能假装不在意不是真的。家强后来的态度就是你们随便以Beyond的名义搞纪念都可以，我不参与，跟他无关了，他纪念他自己的。基本就是当前的三子状态了，也看到Beyond重聚会邀请刘志远，家强的确不参加了。\n应了乐队处久了，放大的是缺点不是优点的宿命结局，何况是少了强力灵魂人物的情况下。\n8090的影音高峰\n唯一没有亏待80,90的是那个时代的精品电影和音乐，尤其以香港为华语圈的代表，留存了很多回忆。时代使然，娱乐菜单丰盛，再难有传唱度那么高的音乐作品出现了。\n\n用美好的歌词收尾\n\n从6.16标题落笔到8.2真正发出，都错过了6月天，写下心中的纪念就好！\n\n让海天为我聚能量，去开天辟地，为我理想去闯。看碧波高壮，又看碧空广阔浩气扬，既是男儿当自强。这就是那个昂扬的时代。\n引用\n1.BBC中文 《海阔天空》超越时代的黄家驹绝唱 ↩2.网易 BEYOND成员更替全纪录：流水的吉他手，铁打的灵魂 ↩3.懂球帝 当Beyond失去家驹 ↩4.Beyond帝国 一段当红冷观自身的电台采访 ↩5.知乎 《乐与怒：Beyond传》节选 ↩","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["音乐"]},{"title":"小动物养成模式","url":"/%E5%B0%8F%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E5%85%BB%E6%88%90%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n\n整理的一家之言内容会有一丝压抑意味, 也穿插了其它内容（国民公子、文明冲突），但认识它是为了更豁达，脱离浑噩。延展段的内容做了很多表述修正，改变其原偏消极的看似超脱的口吻。配个风和日丽的图吧\n\n文明的冲突\n地球就是一个个农场集合，搞养殖就是做生态，更符合生态搞养殖就是制度。生态结构首先取决于土地结构，小动物形态结构。\n\n作为农场小动物们，常进行农场间闲话对比，这种对比一半有意义，一半没意义。有意义的一半叫经济和科技，没意义的一半叫体制。\n\n种花家农场\n每个农场的小动物天然结构并不一样，种花农场小动物基本都是土著，经过几千年融合趋同，动物民族具有相对的单纯性。这种单纯性不仅是因为地缘封闭因素，更是因为东方传统文化的强大内核。没有科技外挂出现之前，这个内核就是陆地最强，多少外族入侵不得不变成一家人。文化内核也堪称最高宗教，佛道讲抽象思维，特点是包容性，儒学入世实践，科技正冲击其局限性。正所谓一个人拥有祖先记忆，在东方的这片土地，你讲出的每句话，每个词及你背后的思想，都来自于儒释道，已深入你我骨髓，只是大家未仔细体会而已。\n\n自秦以来，皆行秦制，搞法家“一也”，将小动物整齐划一，2000年来形成的种花家农场的土地性格–同化，或者叫同一性，决定了这块土地生长出的制度也是同一性的，农场主只能适应土地搞制度，叫做顺天应人。种花家自然长出圈养模式，玩分配，大家刨食集中起来给老大，再给下面小动物分东西，\n\n海盗农场\n海盗农场，小动物种类繁多，花色不一，花色内部还分内部特色，每个花色物种都有自身动物民族的特点，都不是土著，都是别的农场后组合的，最后模式必然是多元性。海盗农场都是乘船出海抢东西，属于放养模式，放养的模式就是玩自由抢，结果必然是贫富分化越来越大。\n\n二者对照\n共和和合众俩字，本质意思也不同（墨西哥和美国是现在仅存的国名中叫合众的两个国家）。\n种花农场更像是农场，海盗农场更像是股份合伙公司。前者的核心是权力，后者的核心是资本。\n农场主只是暂时之王，长周期看还是思想融合之战，科技发展在朝着释放人性罪恶的角度去，科技是冰冷的，看最终是那种文明占据主导（主观上保护地球和维护世界和平）。佛道两家中，还是道家更尊重现世大自然规律，佛家太空，且前世因果讲的太多。道包含因果，但因果不包含道，春播秋收是因果，东升西落是规律。\n亨廷顿的《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》\n冷战后看待世界格局的决定因素在几大文明中：\n\n中华文明\n印度文明\n伊斯兰文明\n西方文明\n东正教文明\n非洲文明（存疑）。\n\n冷战后，冲突的根本根源不再是意识形态，而是文化方面的差异。\n\n李光耀在94年说：中国参与世界地位重组的规模，使得世界必须在30~40年时间内找到一种新的平衡，假装中国不过是另一个大的参与者是不可能的，它是人类历史上最大的参与者。\n\n\n\n文明间有三分之二到四分之三是穆斯林和非穆斯林之间的战争，穆斯林的边界是血腥的，其内部也是如此。\n\n\n俄罗斯几百年来都没搞清楚自己是不是西方国家，它没有或很少经历界定西方文明的历史现象：罗马天主教，封建主义，文艺复兴，宗教改革，海外扩张和殖民化，启蒙运动及民族国家出现。如果俄罗斯称为西方国家，东正教文明将不复存在。\n\n\n西方文明的价值在于其是独特的，而不是普世的。常忘记这一事实，非西方人眼中它们曾或一直是帝国主义。\n\n\n每个文明都把自己视作世界的中心，把自己当做人类历史主要的戏剧性场面来撰写，与其他文明相比，西方可能更是如此。\n强大的社会是普世的，弱小的社会是狭隘的。经济繁荣是道德优越的证明。\n农场解构\n剩余价值汲取\n人类社会持续发展的一个重要原因是集中剩余价值发展生产力，绝大多数人必须将自己的剩余价值贡献出去。以前最主要的集中手段是税收，一部分用于供养社会组织者，一部分用于维持国家运作，剩下的用于提高社会生产力(去试错新发明，新技术)。\n当前世界主要经济体的直接税+间接税大概在35%左右，剩余的钱想变成自己的得经历重重考验。社会组织者要么会给空头支票，比如房贷一次性征你30年的税，要么包括各种工具包括但不限于通胀，股市，p2p，空气币，各种智商税消费陷阱等方式消耗掉你的劳动成果。为了游戏可以玩下去，会有一小撮人可实现财富增值，然后告诉绝大部分人，只要你努力，也可以像他们一样，从而激发你的积极性，不然都躺平不创造价值如何收割。（在拿捏人习惯的管理者/大神面前，普通人就是妥妥的降维打击，高人在知道普通人结局的时候依然刻意煽风点火，挑起普通人的情绪，组局唱戏收割韭菜，局越大被割的人越多。最为猎人，其早就一直在估摸着这篇森林，到底有多少可以捕捉的动物，体积有多大，要挖多大的坑）\n\n君不见每代人都比上代人生活水平好，但仍然忙累么。当消费需求饱和了，就要搞创新，哄你花钱。如手机换个新花样，新能源车替换燃油车，人工智能产品。现在很多技术还没法进入民生领域，当下共享经济无关科技，是给科技创新争取时间，大类资产以租代买，解决消费问题，可长久不了，因为一将功成万骨枯，一个模式兴起会打垮一个行业，大幅降低了行业利润。\n\n无形的手\n国富论奠定资本主义玩法的基础，核心是分工产生效率，辅以释放小动物的趋利本能（无形的手）。但在小动物的抢夺中，会周期性的爆发分配危机。所以要引入有形的手进行梳理。\n\n我们看看产能过剩+资本盲目逐利是如何导致经济萧条的\n\n5人星球，ABCDE每人每日生产2单位共计10单位粮食，每人每天消耗1单位，那么星球每日富余5单位。A一算，粮食屯久了会变质，岂不很浪费，它观察到有时某人生产工具坏了要修，会停止当日生产粮食，也有人偶尔休息一天，削个笛子吹一下调节身心，也不生产。A发现商机，自己停止生产2单位粮食改为生产2单位木制品，可能是2笛子1农具，1板凳，一弓箭什么的。理论上每一单位木制品换一单位粮食，于是5人星球日剩余3单位粮食（8-5），此外生产2单位木制品。由于木制品存放时间更久，拉长周期，5人星球囤积的粮食与之前无多大差别，又多出许多乐器工具，实现了这个星球整体财富的增长。\n但问题来了，制作器具的A并不能完全知悉另外4人的真实需求，会出现一天生产的擀面杖换不到哪怕1单位粮食，于是这一天A必须消耗自己之前交换囤积的粮食，等于亏本。为了减少风险，或用高利润平抑风险满足最大期望，A开始涨价。因为他知道另外4人多生产的富余粮食对他们来说价值不大，于是定价1单位木制品换2单位粮食。那么当天产品若交换完，可换到4单位粮食，自己可富余3单位，其余4人看做一个整体来话，相当于当日没富余，都被A占据了。总结一句话，追逐利润的市场交易意味着必然导致交易一方占有的社会整体财富百分比相对增加。\n与分工之前比，A日常囤积的粮食增加了，由于发现了利润，A业务开始拓展，为防止出现当日做出笛子卖不出去的局面，A甚至引入预定制，为了便于交易，还允许赊账，且开始生产金属制品。由于金属制品消耗量更少，为了防风险定价更高，1单位金属制品可换4单位粮食。由于还是A一人生产，他还是一天只能生产2单位木制品/金属制品。由于带来了金属制品，另外4人生产效率也提高了，斧头镰刀伐木收割更快，每天粮食提高到了4单位，日富余12单位（16-4），需求从此改变。斧头镰刀金属制品需求提高了，A开始扩大生产和涨价，1金属制品要换6单位粮食（能把当日结余粮食换完）。于是A日囤积11单位粮食，其余4人看做整体的话，日绝对财富增加（有金属制品了），相对财富不变或可能减少（依旧是消费完后结余）\n技术进步带来效率，效率改变社会财富分配结构，引发新需求，新需求引导下的行业得到超额分配（利润），风口行业就是这样\n\n暴利的直观体现就是原本占社会财富1/5的A，现在占有星球3/4的财富（不算消耗单日看，12单位粮食其独得，剩余4人除去自己生存开销没有剩余），且绝对财富增加6倍（2-&gt;12）\n\n除了涨价，A还要扩大生产，由于成功引导了市场消费习惯，金属成了日用品，稳赚（如食品包装改用罐头，另外4人每天都要消耗金属罐头），A一合计，如果4单位粮食雇佣一个人帮自己生产金属，那么2人一天就可以生产4单位金属制品，可换24单位粮食，扣除工资，自己日得20粮食。B看这方案刻意，自己日生产4粮食和得4工资没区别，可接受（当觉得没区别不接受时，A可以提升一点工资/使用手段打压其余4人生活水准，诱惑促成有人能接受此收入）。然而人算不如天算，B加入后，星球日生产粮食变成12单位，只剩9单位可供交易。A发现生产4单位金属制品只卖出1单位，可能还是卖给了B（甚至抵上工资和欠条买的），于是A就解雇B，缩小生产规模，B想回去生产粮食发现地荒废了，在过往的消费洗脑下又欠下一屁股债，余粮很快消耗光，于是跳楼了（生产能力消失）。盲目扩大生产又没准确计算供应和需求变化，星球遭遇了经济萧条，盲目逐利带来供需失衡和经济危机。5人星球供需关系很容易看出来，但几十亿人口商品千万行业生态复杂的地球，资本家恐怕就算不出来了。\n5人星球的故事告诉我们，人类整体财富就是一张饼，经济问题归根结底就是交易和契约的问题。\n市场需求引导行业利润，逐利引导集中生产，集中生产供应（垄断）一方的行业暴利。在工业化的自由竞争中，这种问题循环往复。\n地盘经济殖民\n经济增长也伴随着价值汲取，左手吸劳动价值，右手吸资源价值，合起来就是劳动+资源=财富。在科技发展停滞不前时，经济增长会达到一个顶峰，抢地盘就会成为一个必然。历史上的日不落农场当时就大干这种事。当前侵略已经是过时做法，得搭上一票人去搞管理，经济殖民是更好的选择，有些农场主觉得他们进来挺好的，有钱有方法，使自家小动物生产能力提高，自己也受益。这个模式就是工业化转移，有些农场主傻乎乎，工业化水平毛都没学到，财富倒是被吸干了，满地鸡毛和污染，有些农场主比较机灵，既然财富必然要被吸，自家小动物学习能力强，慢慢工业化水平就练出来了。自力更生，自己的盘面自己吸，这世界满是经济殖民地。\n改变消费习惯，改变市场需求，一靠枪炮，二靠广告，铺天盖地的广告是消费主义世代最显著的特征。\n了解环境与互动\n小动物从生到死依赖于各个农场，解构农场对人生大有帮助。但大量信息是站在小动物趋利的角度写出来的，比如怎么理财，怎么提高情商。20%的信息是站在农场主管理的角度写出来的，比如某某政策如何，某某行业运作数据和问题，某某经济学理论如何产生，实际指导管理等等。对于思想开悟帮助有限。\n\n古典文献多数也是站在农场主视角写的，帮助其管理，这种书看起来很高端，但对小动物帮助不大，因为利益角度不同。只有鬼谷子是跳出来看结构，因为他是纵横家，游走在多重利益集团间搞公关。\n\n小动物要看清农场结构，需忘记自己的坐标，跳到空中看。任何结构都由相互依存的主体构成，主体间的利益流动形成了结构，看两样东西。\n小动物的价值（有啥）\n繁衍能力\n小动物第一项价值就是繁衍能力，繁衍是动物社会存续的第一因素。农场主专家团站在运营角度（自身利益存续与迭代发展），宏观上每天研究动物人口结构，毕竟是地球上目前看来最有劳动价值群体。强人工智能的进展缓慢和细分技术知识爆炸式扩展，使得社会需要高度协作，人力需要高度层次化和多样性，继而需要人口需要保持特定的量。\n劳动能力\n作为灵长类动物，智商比马牛羊高级，个体劳动力会随着工具生态环境而无限放大（复杂工具+分工协作），故作为小动物，最重要就是经营好自己的工具使用能力。\n复杂工具\n在原始时代，灵长小动物没有马牛羊值钱，大航海时代一匹马可以换5个大黑，马耕地比小动物效率高得多，运货物，繁衍能力都更强。小动物价值超过马牛羊得益于工具的发明，也就是科技发展，劳动能力大大提高。马牛羊是不开会拖拉机的。\n科技的发展两大实效作用：提高生产效率和生产能力，增强打架斗殴的能力，对应于民用+军用两大领域。不少发明还是先军用再民用，所以有时说科技发明是罪恶的。\n\n对于农场主来说，在劳动效率没看见变化的情况下，抢地盘是最重要的。抢完了地盘，再研究管理和提高小动物的劳动效率。\n\n所以小动物要想在农场过得比其它动物好，能获取更多利益，首要学习使用各种工具的本领，会用的工具越复杂，会的人越少，就有劳动的稀缺性，会受到农场主和全农场的温暖关怀，优越性伴随着稀缺性而来，小动物活着追求的朴素体感目标也即优越感。\n分工复杂度与稀缺\n你会的工具越复杂，与其它动物分工协作度就越高。动物社会发展到今天，每个小动物都要依赖分工协作释放自己的劳动价值。分工越精细，小动物们的整体生产力就越高，创造的总财富就越多。一个人干所有活来种地，累到吐血也只能种1-2公顷土地，但农业机械+分工+生物科技，10个人能操持的土地就高出个人不知道多少倍。\n占坑稀缺性\n小动物天天面对土地和庄稼，总会有个别动物心理扭曲精神崩溃，要去城里找专门研究小动物精神领域的专家开导开导，小动物高兴了继续种地情绪高涨。种地的越多，心理扭曲就更频繁，研究精神领域的小动物少，就稀缺值钱。故研究分工协作环节中的稀缺性，也非常有价值。\n价值总结\n从农场主宏观视角，绝大多数小动物就上面两个价值：\n\n\n繁衍\n\n\n在社会分工中提供劳动\n\n\n是不是很悲哀？绝大多数小动物都可有可无，被丢掉或被擦除掉，对这个世界没有任何影响，眼睛一闭，这个世界对他根本没有感觉。所以小动物活着，总在讨论动物人生的意义，本质上就是在讨论如何能留下一道痕迹，作为小动物，只有思想才能闪出光芒。\n有没有好逸恶劳不爱思考却获得物质结果的动物呢，有，比如拆迁，这都是运气。精密机器的运转，当然会有小概率事件，这不可简单将小概率事件转述为命运，不思进取靠小概率事件获得物质优越性的动物，从未获得思想的优越性，没有思想结构的优越性，很多捡到死耗子的瞎猫，大概率会因为物质而带来痛苦。\n举个不普通的栗子\n通常暴发户吸毒是情理中的事情，因为他的感受从来无人梳理。成功和毒瘾只是相同快感的不同来源而已。\n思聪当前来看是成功的，显示出一个正常人的状态，大众的追捧有一点积极意义。给你一个亿也许让你家破人亡，给他一个亿，他竟然在好好表现。因为他从未经历过苦难的错误感受，不会傻到认为钱可以给人持久的快感，说真话干实事才可以。哪怕有些话不那么恰当，有些事还有些赔钱。或许这就是那句牛逼的话，难得糊涂，他的清醒就是普通人的糊涂。\n\n王公子早年在英国留学，高中时才知道自己的真实家世，读的专业是大众觉得没什么用的哲学。王健林不仅早预料到自己狂野的商业版图，也预料到儿子将来直面这些成功所带来的无聊。如何将儿子培养成一个简单通透的人是接班的先决条件。王公子永远缺失普通人从0到1的艰辛记忆，怎么才能支持他继续工作呢？\n大多数人从出生起就接受了很多感官垃圾，99%的人都在生活的恐吓下活着，一生必定耗费巨大的精力和勇气去梳理这些垃圾感受，读大量的书才能让自己安静下来，不忘初心。\n\n爱思考的小动物会产生一个焦躁的思想，思想力是有的，心力不够（本质还是思想力不足），心力就是10年磨一剑的耐心的坚守和实践的坚持。\n农场主靠啥榨油小动物\n土地\n世界由不公平构成，平衡木只有不公平才能左右摇摆起来，这就是社会发展，不平才是正常状态。动物性趋利（荀子简化讲人性恶），活着意味这要抢地盘。地球每个农场文化中崇拜的伟大人物，常有共同特点就是抢地盘能力强。人类打败了所有动物，就开始内斗抢地盘。每个地盘都划出了农场主和小动物两个群体，土地是自然之母，每个农场主都会将土地垄断起来，这个控制权利的词叫产权，这个词也很虚，严格意义上讲，小动物不可能拥有一寸土地。海外的永久产权，但极高的税赋打破这一幻象。想拥有土地操控权，必须拥有强大的武力和组织力做为支持，土地是农场主的第一大资源。\n周期收割劳动价值\n小动物劳动力价值超过马牛羊时，农场主从抢马牛羊转向抢小动物。古代农场一个个主管人员都叫牧，原来这些主管都是帮农场主牧养马牛羊，后来就改为牧养小动物，内涵一样。\n繁衍，提高劳动效率。收割。\n社会存在的本质就是分工协作，对社会的管理就是对分工的管理。\n经济的本质就是循环。宏观上的循环就是对小动物的周期收割。微观上的循环，就是农场各种动物分工协作的利益往来。所以宏观上研究的都是大势，是农场间的往来，地盘怎么分，对小动物怎么互相利用利用，都收割收割。微观上研究的都是企业，行业，小动物间的具体分工协作，生产协作和利益交换，都是一些行业政策，法律条文类细的东西。宏观上围绕小动物的求生与发展本能，吃饭看病住所教育（脑子开光），搞周期收割。牧养马牛羊靠鞭子，牧养小动物靠税收和货币。\n金融\n金融即为打破农场的空间障碍，穿越时间获得更大地盘的工具，变收割当下为收割未来。利用金融，贪婪本性得以无限释放。但金融有个确定性问题，理论上可对未来无限收割，但物质财富不可能穿越时空存在，拿未来的财富标的现在，本身就是个幻象，所以金融必定会产生泡沫。\n金融就是一种打破时间的交易的障眼法，一种对当下资源配置的魔术，载体就是货币，一串数字，数字当然可以穿越时间搞周期收割。\n每一滴泡沫都要由小动物买单，可小动物傻傻的崇拜金融，没办法，专业词汇都是障眼法，背后的本质没那么复杂，甚至有些简单。可惜大部分新兴市场工业化都没玩明白，金融货币就更玩不转了，周期被大流氓收割，收割不了就更换农场主。\n资产阶级在哪里\n当前劳资矛盾的中小老板不应该是直接的阶级斗争对象，他们并不是资本家，充其量只是生产活动的组织者。当今资本主义的发展程度，社会学家和哲学家没跟上或者拿了钱故意混淆视听，使得大家认知模糊。当今具体劳动者能接触到的具体资本家，无非市场上一个个经营实体，更多是小资产者，为风投，为利率，为汇率，为劳动法，为超级地租，为直接间接的税收打工而已。有些能完成暂时的积累，很快又会在资本市场中被新的投机机会吸引，又再一次把积累给砸空，而机会呢，往往来自上层的庄家所制造出来的。\n当前因为产权制度的改革，包括资本在内的各种生产要素都飞快的流动起来，能保证old money不流失的个体很少，看似长寿的企业股权也经常流动，几易其手。小资产者也永无休止地被驱使着运动着，又被梦想吸引的部分，大部分也是被迫运动（生产要素在专业交易机构和法律体系逼迫下做着无法停歇的运动，使得经营者也常规短视化）。他们其实才是真正为资本主义打工的一群人，他们被收割的源泉就在于他们造富的梦想或改变世界的理想，只要去挣钱，就要服从一套秩序。而无产阶级反倒像化外之民，不怎么受统治。\n后资本主义时代或新自由主义下，真正的资本家已经退居幕后，不会直接跟劳动者打交道，也不会直接管理哪一个实体企业，通过错综复杂的内部交易关系，从货币到金融，从政策到文化，抱团团结。从具体经济行为来看，越来越不像一个剥削者，而更像一个统治者，维度已经上升到构建一个秩序或构建他们的生态来共同统治世界，而不是再吭哧吭哧的和劳动者去算工资，真正被盘剥的是具体的生产经营组织者，也就是市场中的实体，暂时的小资产者。在后资本主义时代，世界已经变得非常复杂， 真正的资本家坏人看着像好的人，当然他们也是一个个具体的人，第一个按宣传能想到谁，老柳头应该算一个（复杂隐含的关系实控着很多关系老百姓生命生活的行业， 却隐而不见）\n延展：小动物的自由从何而来\n人的自由来自于内外部结构平衡，在内部无限物欲膨胀，外部喧嚣浮躁的信息轰炸下，不是迷失在物质欲望里，就是迷失在思想雍杂里。作为生物个体，无限逐利只会让你失去自由，获取平衡才是自由的本源，要获取自由，要搞清楚四点。\n认识你所依存的世界的运作方法\n多数人仿佛对一切都习惯了，这种任由摆布的生存方式在光景好的时候等待你的是收割和随波逐流，在坏光景的时候等待你的就是丢弃。随波逐流被收割的愤恨和对被丢弃的担心，是人们心中不安的由来。\n这种担心会随着物质丰富而暂时缓解，而不是消失；思想的雍杂更是一种负担，满大街贩卖的焦虑正是如此，不管是对底层刨食者，还是对巨量中产，焦虑摧残着每一个人。无论你站在哪一层物质梯队上，焦虑首要因素来自于不自信，不自信不分来自对自己依存世界的不理解。\n对自己依存世界进行解构，使其更透明起来，你的心也会变得宁静安全起来。请抓住一个逻辑线路，个体是如何在集体中生存的。\n生态生存的阴阳两面\n阳面是分配运作，阴面是精神与道德\n集体规则无外乎一个逻辑：分配。农耕按劳分配，封建时代按血缘和权位分配，政治时代按分工和阶层分配，分配方法越来越细化复杂，这也是所以多数人没有技术去观察所依存世界的原因。\n事务的发展变化必然伴随着漏洞，漏洞就是分配的不合理，任何的政治意识到经济运行，再到阶层的呈现，总会充满分配漏洞（人主管掌控的东西，无论是集体还是个体，都会充满人性上的漏洞），一切不可能100%按照管理者意志运作。农耕时代劳动计价就是漏洞。封建时代家天下意志在于权位社稷，从分封到一统，历代王朝的分配漏洞正是这种人为设计的权威体系而生成，变化就在这种分配漏洞中。外戚制，藩镇割据，诸侯王等。如今是政商时代（政治控局），管理者的意志在于对经济设计，经济反哺政治，如计划经济与市场经济，封闭与开放，对内保护与引入竞争等，这些进化就是对之前漏洞的修补，而又会产生新的漏洞，影响最终生态结构（阶层)。\n站在个体角度，对于进化的观察与对漏洞的分析和把握，决定着个体的生存结构。\n政商时代，信仰分很多个层级，越往下越信仰金钱，信仰自然神，底层刨食未摆脱农耕劳动思想束缚；越往上，越信仰权位，站在物质和权力顶端，难摆脱封建权位思想。中间层是开放的，是一种依附于金钱，权力的对自由的向往。越没有什么，越向往什么。若你能解构看清诸多信仰，也能进一步理解生态。\n找到自我禀赋与信仰，得舍\n达成对自我的解构，也很重要。在这世界你的禀赋是什么，决定最适合活着的方法。每个人都有禀赋的不同（老鼠打洞，狡兔三窟，鹰犬守在主人门外），每个人都需要遵从自己的秉性。你可以信仰金钱，权力或某种条款，但要坚持下去才有力量。多数人的一生都是徘徊的一生，而坚持最好的方法就是朝向你的禀赋。天生是鹰犬，那么就做下去；天生是葛朗台，那么就拜金下去，当然能更豁达一点更好。\n\n多数人的认命就是在信仰的浑浑噩噩左右徘徊中，就这样吧；\n少数人能清楚的认命，原来我就应该怎样啊；\n极少数人能做到的认命，是在观察生态世界后的开悟与豁达。\n\n\n信仰是一种生存力量，看清并解构人们的信仰，会得到更大的力量，金钱与权利只是附带的筹码，信仰才是至上的力量\n\n在自己的禀赋下争取自己想要的，有了对生态结构和自我的解构准备，力争掌握更为复杂的工具或卡位优势分工环节(穷人之所以穷，是因为他是拿时间还钱，获得的是平均社会薪酬，社会薪酬主要和行业阶段有关系)，营造自己的生态位，分流剩余价值流动，收获自己活着的充实。\n在这场活着的游戏中，认知清楚后，仍然比拼的是坚持的力量（当下的社会组织者也是通过一套方法，一步一个脚印孤独又快乐的坚持走向自己的信仰之地）。哪怕你视角宏大与独特，像俯瞰蚂蚁搬家一样，也不要陷入虚无主义（空谈舍弃），人的生命有且只有一次，要挑战，不要磨灭。\n当你把城市建设的繁华喧闹，空虚也会随着繁华而来，此时幸福的本源在于你想得到什么，又能舍弃多少。但没有获取你就不知道该舍弃什么（这也是为什么释迦摩尼能创佛教的原因，它的阶层与曾有的资源，普通的刺激根本诱惑不了他），成就与信仰都离不开舍弃。心无所求方得自由，无所求即为有所求。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"中产滑落与小镇做题家","url":"/%E5%B0%8F%E9%95%87%E5%81%9A%E9%A2%98%E5%AE%B6.html","content":"\n中产的滑落\n挤公交效应\n举个挤公交的例子，车下的你往上挤，意愿非常强烈，车上的人呢，他们才不管你赶时间或有多急的事，几乎都不希望你上去。你对那些毫无同理心的人厌恶至极，可一旦你上去了，马上翻转。\n这种人性丑陋的心理作用机制与现象，无处不在。在较低精英层与中产层中，往往体现在以团体共进退的模式形成一种一荣俱荣，一损俱损的壮观社会现象。最高层精英似乎更加围绕“血统”达成繁荣，巩固与传承。而平民百姓往往以单打独斗的方式进行，效能很低。\n精英阶层最希望社会场景应通过规则制定与掌控，控制通道流量，也不希望关闭这一通道（关闭对谁都不利）。现在挤公交效应非常严重，精英也早就在考虑和安排规则的事情。奶头乐也是安排的一个环节。\n\n至于规则，所有人一视同仁的那叫规则；只约束一帮人不约束另一帮的，那叫剥削。比如要求私德高尚，私德就像螃蟹的钳子一样，是让螃蟹们相互制约和监督的，捕蟹人就在旁边看着，这个阶层的缺德在那个阶层叫能力。\n\n精英有座城堡，中产只是外城\n\n管钱管天下门派最重要，拿到现在就是家庭和圈子。\n\n精英阶层在历史上名头多变，不管你管他们叫什么豪强，士族，门阀，权贵集团，当他们作为一个整体出现的时候，首先是一座城堡，第一功能是防止别人再进来，所以先进来的人会不断增加城墙的高度，避免再进人摊薄自己的特权和福利，不过砌墙的行为会被包装下，使普通人很难分辨。\n今天精英阶层一项杀手锏在于会为子女预留很多止损线，其后代人生是被设置了下限的，上不封顶，这就是这群人开挂的地方，何况精英阶层还会以相互之间彼此关照对方子女的方式强化这种机制，这早已是城堡里的潜规则。与这些招数比起来，那些所谓的增长视野，减少摸索的好处都只能算毛毛雨。\n主流意识形态现在开始鼓吹中产阶级的崛起，但中产本质是精英阶级的随从，是经营分配酬劳体系里的一环，若精英是躲在城堡里，那么中产就是拱卫城堡的一圈外城，依附于城堡，但又优越于外层的乡野，中产作为城堡的外城也有自己的城墙，中产外城墙是学历，而城堡的内城墙是血缘，这是最核心的区别，越上层的人越爱用血缘来区分人，中产阶级的城墙比起城堡要矮的多，防御薄弱，所以时不时就有人可以翻进来，中产与底层间的流通也相对顺畅的多，通过几十年个人奋斗到中产的人，很容易得出个人奋斗能改变阶层的结论，等下一代接着向上时却发现上面的游戏规则完全不一样。\n中产依旧是靠出卖脑力和劳动时间来吃饭，从来没有真正掌握过生产资料，中产这个群体内心非常脆弱和焦虑。人最大的痛苦还不是得不到，而是得到以后再失去，中产一方面受到资产阶级的压制，很难真正的实现阶层跨越，一方面又受到底层劳动者的仇视，一不留神就会阶层滑落，所以他们特别舍得在教育上花钱，妄图向上层靠拢，也特别喜欢买一堆性价比极低的奢侈品，妄图和底层劳动者划清界限。\n\n而真正的富人，反倒不怎么重视应试教育，他们的子女根本不需要参与社会竞争，真正的富人也反倒不太注重穿戴，他们早已无需通过衣着来彰显自己的身份。有产者技能60分晃荡，认知却得是满分。雇佣最聪明的大脑，买别人的时间创造自己的财富。只有普通人才纠结在意标签。\n什么爱情恒久远，一颗永流传；什么人生当有别，一墅见高下；什么你来我培养你的孩子，你不来我培养你孩子的竞争对手。几乎一切的消费主义，鸡娃主义，庞氏骗局等等，无一例外都是针对中产定制的。历史上每逢金融危机来临，受伤最重的往往就是中产，因为他们最害怕自己手里的现金贬值，最喜欢用全部身家外加数倍杠杆买入泡沫资产。\n每一轮金融泡沫的破灭都会让无数中产一夜之间沦为赤贫，然而又有谁会在乎呢，这本就是中产的宿命，这本就是历史的轮回，他们每一次的滑落，都会给底层注入新的活力和高素质人才，崛起则给国家带来新一轮增长和飞跃。这就是培育中产收割中产的过程。穷人没钱可割，富人有办法规避。中产这个词本身就是个不折不扣的伪概念，产就是生产资料，中产的手里有过生产资料吗？\n精英阶层的阶层内差距也非常大，就如跟盖茨和小扎这等超级富豪比一样，0.1%的富豪也跌至底层。他们内部也存在巨大的对权力，资本支配的差异，就像太阳系与银河系一样。\n错误的经验\n绝大部分的中产只是赶上了好时代，凭借自己的职工身份，城镇户口和高考成绩就能享受时代快速增长的红利，既没有富人的认知和资源，也没有穷人的野心，却有不错的生活水准，如何必然会滑落呢？\n因为中产阶级家庭，是对社会运行规律的误解最为严重的人群，他们所有的成果都是特定的产物，比如几十年前国企招工的时候他们正好是城镇户口，刚分完房子就赶上快速的城镇化，房价大涨。工作的时候，中国几乎所有的行业都处于爆炸性增长的阶段，只要不缺胳膊少腿，就算是论资排辈，都能有不错的上升机会，恰恰是这些躺赢的经验，让他们认为这一切都是理所当然的，把这种理所当然传递给子女，让他们乖乖读书老实工作结婚买房熬年头。\n当下的中国社会已发生巨变，房产无脑上涨的时代已结束，子女面临的是空前的竞争和变化，沿袭老路只会更加迷茫。\n教育的差别\n有人讲教育有三个层次：\n\n什么能做、什么不能做，这叫平民教育\n做什么赚钱，做什么不赚钱，这叫精英教育\n什么能抢，什么不能抢，这叫贵族教育\n\n文化也有两种，精英文化和洗脑文化。在看不到角落有一群更聪明的人控制着我们，控制的工具不再是旧有的刀枪，是文化，是制度，是风俗，是习惯。\n草根/中产的孩子在做好自己方面投入过多，学习工作非常努力、能力优秀，但在如何与别人建立连接方面重视不够，不知如何在人群中升级，最后沦为工具。没有前人搭桥，认知都需要一个人用青春教训去积累，最宝贵的时间流逝了，机会也随之减少。\n穷人能给孩子的教育，基本都属于做人的大道理，但缺乏处世做事的能力教育。有多少人家里教过他说话方式和言辞把控，甚至是说话声调和气势？教过他怎么控制和释放自己的表达欲和表现欲？教过他如何与小人相处，如何与领导相处，如何与坏人相处？教过他如何谋取自己的利益？这些看似是做人的教育，实际都是对抗风险和谋取利益的手段。谋事谋利能力，就是穷人家庭最缺的知识，而不是盯着试错成本这种大能力大目标不放。还有一点穷人缺关系，更是不会结交和维护上层关系，毕竟这个社会说到底是人的社会，关系也是一种绝对实力。\n消灭中产有4个手段\n\n加税，富人避税手段较多，容易加不到他们头上， 加太狠且能润，所以欧洲中产总上街。毕竟富人跑了财政不够用了，只能向中产要，中产税更重了。\n通货膨胀，也不能太多，不会搞货币崩塌社会立即崩盘那套。\n给你暴富机会让你掉坑，旧时的科举也相当于一个暴富机会，一万个里考一个，失败只能怪你自己，毕竟有人成功了。\n金融危机，例子太多，从住别墅到睡大街。给中产（有技能的无产）动力以刺激斗志，推动改善生活的欲望的形成。\n\n中产的欲望\n阶层跳跃和财富保值是中产的两大欲望，在能力足够的前提下都喜欢折腾，财富保值是确保家庭阶层不下滑的底线，阶层跳跃是确定家庭代代传承的关键。\n在经济的上行期，实现财富保值甚至增值的方法简单而粗暴，上杠杆，或者说上杠杆买房，2017年之前，所有按此方法操作的中产阶层基本都达成了这个目标。如果你觉得自己没有达成，唯一的原因是你买的不够多或者你买了鹤岗。\n要实现阶层跳跃，唯一的途径就是创业和教育，因为只有创业才能真正获得优质资产，掌握生产资料，即使是在经济上行期，中产阶层去创业成功率也不高，原因也简单，因为绝大多数从事的行业技术门槛不够高，任何一个存在高利润的行业很容易被蜂拥而至的后来者给稀释掉利润，真正有技术门槛高利润的产业链太少了。\n所以在中国，普通人在正常情况下爬到中产阶层已是极限，这还不够全面，应该是在经济的上行期，爬到中产已是极限；在经济的下行期，普通人要保住中产阶层的位置不变，也已是极限。\n整个世界现在有进入经济下行期的大概率风险，我们也许是下行期表现最好的国家，但是也不可能逃过这个经济周期。在经济的上行期，大家最爱谈的词是双赢，因为大家做的是增量，只是强者吃的那一口一定要大一些，但在经济的下行期，大家心照不宣会谈一个词，内卷，因为大家做的是存量，没有双赢了，只有赢两次，强者吃完第一口，还得吃第二口。\n内卷和内卷期的正确作为\n我们上一个经济轮次先基于加入WTO的整个的经济系统，后基于移动互联网和金融管制的开放。14年是一个明确的分割线，之后中国内部也在做相对宽松的经济货币政策，房地产轮次的增长，这一整体轮次结束了。新的一轮不管是从新能源，还是从新基建，AI还没开始，青黄不接大家就觉得卷。\n卷是阶段，对每一个普通人，通过内卷增加实力，新的一轮经济增长的时候，你能把这个能力迁移过去就是跳脱的储备，底层能力含：影响力，领导力，文案写作能力，公众演讲能力，耐挫折能力，这些能力是能迁移到任何一个行业中的。\n在过程中我们的目的不是说我内卷要获得胜利，而是修炼这些能迁移的能力。还有一种是在内卷发生之前，你要坚持先卷自己，这叫坚持做难而正确的事情。\n下行期的欲望克制\n经济上行期，中产阶级的欲望是上升的阶梯，有欲望才敢上杠杆，上杠杆才有机会获得超额收益；但是在经济的下星期，中产阶层的欲望是悬崖边的毒蛇，随时准备将你拉下悬崖。中产阶层的欲望，在经济上行期越折腾越有；在经济的下行期越折腾越惨。别折腾，别轻易上杠杆，留足现金流。活下来的中产阶级越有可能在未来获得财富增值以及阶层跳跃的机会，这就是内卷的残酷真相。社会的资源是有限的，能够供养的中产阶层也是有限的。\n股市收割机\n中年男人有了一定的社会阅历，可在网上侃侃而谈，在出租车里指点江山，在火锅店里慷慨陈词，从国际形势到宏观经济，从地缘政治到行业趋势，虽然他们只是渊博，观点独到，可惜领导不懂用人，公司战略有问题，创业又是大环境不好，空有一身本领，可惜英雄无用武之地。\n35岁上有老下有小，体力也不如从前了，告别了理想，余生又很长，职业发展停滞，想涨工资又没本事，想创业又没资源，买彩票中奖概率太低，这时候股票出现了，没开始做就能憧憬未来的美好生活，点点鼠标就能赚钱，改善家庭生活品质，给老婆多买一个包，给孩子报个培训班，多带家人出去旅行，提升家庭地位。虽然职场进不了阿里腾讯，但自己认知完全可以从这些公司股票中赚到钱，虽然没有巴菲特的资产，但我可以像巴菲特一样开始滚雪球啊。\n看似很简单，不就是低买高卖嘛，自己对行业，对国际局势的深刻理解也能用得上。以上这些对中年男人的吸引力还不是最关键的，最关键的是股市投资虽不如赌博，赌博概率50%左右，股市概率不到10%，但股市有个正经的名号，叫职业投资者。\n关起门来研究各种K线，国际局势，美联储加息，好像在努力勤劳致富，给了亲朋好友自己正在奔向财富自由的路上，且充满了正能量的自我感动。我一直在奋斗，有希望发财，就有希望吊打那些看不起我的亲戚同事。虽绝大多数人和赌徒没区别，对中年男人最有吸引力的是股市中一时半会证明不了自己没本事，亏钱了那叫浮亏，不是真正的亏损，还可以把巴菲特持有股票几十年不动，获得巨额收益的例子搬出来，证明亏损只是暂时的，以后可以赚回来，虽然整体亏了一半，但有一只股票赚了不少，可以一直拿出来说事，就这样，中年男人的继续在不断的抄底中一点点被消耗，被收割。\n资本的真相\n\n总有人要在甲板之下\n\n所有的资本家要尽一切的可能设计各种游戏避免普通人完成原始积累，因为一旦完成，你就不愿意当螺丝钉了，不愿意当工具人了，你也想坐在头等舱思考人生，思考诗和远方，但头等舱是坐不了那么多人的。\n要是人人都轻松赚钱，谁来建设社会主义？\n人生的悲欢很多就是关于船票的故事，关于升舱的故事，这条路上诞生了很多伟大的文学作品。\n\n一条船（国家/体制）的活力就是补票的机会多不多！\n\n中产子女如何突围？\n田忌赛马\n避开和马二代正面冲击，在需要依靠金钱财力厮杀的领域，就回避。如用好看的妞，玩漂亮的车，喝昂贵的酒，避开这些，马二代的弱点是耐不住寂寞，不愿意静下心来，磨剑十年。\n不和金凤凰死磕，金凤凰虽然穷但好斗，超级努力，虽然很难全方面避开他们。但因为要原始积累，所以金凤凰非常注重短期利益，急啊。\n这样突围路径就清楚了\n\n35岁前不怎么赚钱，秒死金凤凰\n需要5-8年的苦功夫，秒死马二代\n\n面对父母很难容忍子女去做辛苦没面子的工作，较可行的路径有几个：学校老师，医生药师，有编制的大单位，律师会计师。这些工作的特点：需要10年以上的苦熬，中后期有机会大放异彩（上不封顶，下有保底），且需要一定人际关系的情商，父母一辈子的积累可以变现了。\n更宏观的看阶层向上流动\n城堡的这堵城墙依然是有缝隙的，当今的时代拥有比以往更多的工具实现阶级跃迁，但前提是你得具有以下三者中的一项，一是天赋，二是才华，三是美貌。\n天赋\n有天赋的人通常叫天才，本质是基因突变，按人口中的一定比例随机生成，出现地域和时间无法控制和预测，一旦出山就光芒万丈，再保守的既得利益者也不得不考虑将这些天生异能者收编进城堡之内。有天赋者万中无一，上升难度最易。\n才华\n二是才华，一般也叫能人，才华和天赋的区别在于，才华不是随机出现的，而是刻意培养的成果，这往往是平民阶层举数代人之力打造的特优产品，功能和特点都是为统治阶层精心定制的，用着绝对顺手包你称心满意，统治阶级看到居然有人这么有心，往往心生感激，愿意接纳其成为自己一员，有才华这千里挑一，上升较易。\n美貌\n美貌就不用多解释了，占人口比例大概1%左右，可被上层阶级拿来直接当装饰品或者改善基因用，因数量最多，上升的难度要比前者高好几个数量级。\n壁垒升高\n以上三大要素占一个，就有实现阶级跨越的可能，勤奋并不能使人上升到精英序列，勤奋只有在和天赋才华美貌相结合的时候才能发挥助攻作用，单凭勤奋只能保证你上升到底层阶级里的上层。\n三大能力之所以得到精英阶层的承认，是因为这三样东西放在任何群体内都是稀缺资源。\n稀缺资源被优化配置的效率在当今的时代是极速上升，怀才不遇的牛人，小村小镇的美女在未来将越来约难以埋没，随时随地都会被挖掘出来并往城堡输送，过去因为于外界交流不多，娶到自己村里的大美女这种捡漏的好事以后会越来越不他可能。城堡的顶层对于这种受管控的上升通道也乐见其成，他们需要定期小规模换血的方式来弥补自身后代里出现废人的概率损耗，也需要通过引入外来跃迁者的机制来时不时敲打城堡内的对手，甚至不惜打开向下掉落的通道，来警示城堡内的食物链下游。天赋才华美貌其门槛也在不断提高，也是城堡里的人加高壁垒的露骨表现。\n错觉\n平民中的天资平庸者，尽管生活水平会随着技术进步持续上升，但相对的社会位阶却很难变化，很多人会把生活水平绝对值的提升当成自己在人群中相对地位的提升。今天一个普通人拥有的东西，500年前的皇帝会用半壁江山来换，就是典型的在故意混淆绝对值和相对值的概念，今天的小白领在全人口序列中所处的位置看，也就相当于他爷爷辈的一个普通庄稼汉，或者他父辈里一个厂里的工人，看似生活水平极大改善，实际阶层位置分毫未动，这就是被精心设计出来的幻觉，可预见的是，这一两代有生之年，只要社会大致稳定，技术持续进步，社会财富不断增加，这套精英系统便能完美的持续运转。\n谷爱凌给大家的启示\n注重颜值\n长相虽然是天生的，但是这不代表颜值无法靠后天培养。给孩子充分的户外运动时间能保持视力不近视，从小注重营养均衡肉蛋奶尤其是蛋白质的摄入有利于青春期的发育和身高，关注孩子的牙齿发育是否需要正畸，这些事情并不需要花很多钱，但很多父母就是会忽视，导致孩子颜值输在起跑线上，在可见的未来，无论从事什么职业，颜值都是重要的核心竞争力。\n家庭教育\n其次，培养高学历子女，家庭教育在这方面密不可分，谷的家庭为孩子提供最合适的教育资源，这点就领先很多对教育一窍不通只会盲目抨击中美教育的家长太多，还要清楚名校录取规则，万里挑一的规则非精英不录取，相较于常规的内卷考分，谷选择了相对小众的途径：成为某个体育项目的精英运动员，以体育特长的身份入学。\n运动天赋\n再者，关注孩子的运动天赋，中国家长很少有真心培养孩子体育特长的，因为国内家长很喜欢带孩子学一些华而不实的项目，什么弹钢琴啦这种（只能胜出在年会上）。国外的中产和上流，都最重视体育，足球，篮球，高尔夫，拳击网球等。\n体育对于青少年培养最的意义有两个\n\n\n良好的身体素质，比如说足球，世界第一运动。足球能很大程度的培养孩子的敏捷性，灵活性，爆发力。网球，世界商业化排名前三的运动，培养孩子的手眼协调能力移动能力，平衡感。拳击就更不用说了，对于提高耐力，抗击打能力，爆发力，速度都非常有用。\n\n\n另一个很重要的点，良好的心理素质。华尔街金融机构很喜欢招大学里杰出运动员，比如橄榄球四分卫，理由也简单，专业知识是可以学的，但四分卫这种冷静的判断能力，优秀的身体素质，强大的头脑思考面对危机时的抗压能力，这些玩意儿时公司无论如何都培养不出来的。\n玩体育的孩子心理素质普遍比较好，因为玩体育经常要面对的就是接受失败，这会在很大程度上培养出所谓的耐挫力，除了失败，体育也会培养所谓的竞争意识，即便水平不及对方，也不能轻易放弃，认输在很多项目是绝对不允许发生的事。我们富起来的时间太短，对体育重视程度远远不够。\n\n\n颜值，学历，运动这三者缺一不可。这个时代对于优秀的评判标准会越来越多元化，走自己的路不要去内卷，可能是最佳的建议。\n行业岗位\n2000年到2010年间，体力劳动者不缺了，技术人员也饱和了，到处都是求职的普通人，公务员的铁饭碗和隐性福利又成了优势。2010-2020年间，毕业生最期望进入的行业分别是金融，IT，政府。\n金融行业的高薪水来源于国家政策福利，货币从央行流向各行各业，经过的第一道手，就是金融行业，十年周期就是人才的培养周期。下一个十年可能是5G时代，甚至拯救煤炭这样的夕阳产业。谁能预测30-40年后的自己在干嘛呢，能做的，只是把时间拆分开来，并做好当下的事情。\n个体职业生涯阶段\n第一阶段，韬光养晦+强势开局。第一个时间要花时间为前方的漫长道路挖掘和装备自己，学习曲线比职位职称更为重要。\n第二阶段，聚焦长版+持续输出。30-40区间，首先目标是寻找自己的甜区，想方设法平稳地走在那条收获最大的职场路径上，专注于自己的长板。\n第三阶段，优化长尾+可持续发展。40岁之后，已经积累了足够的信用，这时最重要的就是整合资源，让你的体系内的人都受益，让人，钱，事有效运转起来，自发形成一条可持续的职业道路。\n第一份工作很重要，也不那么重要。有很多人第一份工作和自己的事业大相径庭，有多少资源，就去做多少事情。既要专注于手里的六便士，还要记得抬头望望天上的月亮，做长远的规划，也要从当下最平凡的现在出发。\n小镇做题家\n\n小镇做题家形容出身小城，擅长应试，进而通过高考跻身知名大学，可在此之后，不少人却发现人生的走向越来不不在自己的掌控之中，一般用来描述高分低能那批人，或者分数很高却越混越挫的人。\n\n背景的局限\n\n不会处理复杂的人际关系，不懂人性\n\n穷人家的孩子，都是体力阶层，没见过资源交互，利益互享来挣钱。底色还是懦弱、本分，常为情感面子所累，为传统道义所束缚。想当然地认为这个世界是按照课堂上教给你的政治正确，非黑即白的逻辑来生活，而不知道潜规则，灰色地带。中国就是一个大贾府，以前和未来还是。\n当你好不容易懂了，蹉跎到四十，没了机会。一个成熟的人，一个可以轻松驾驭周围所有人关系的人，他们都有一个共同点：知道自己能给别人带来什么。想清楚这个点，一起关系就顺畅了，包括你的父母你的配偶。\n\n下一代总是对弯路上的风景更好奇，非得把他爹吃过的亏再吃一遍，而且津津有味。两代人的话不投机，那些好奇的事情，一半没法讲，一半没水平讲。\n\n原生家庭带给他们太多的狭隘，自卑，呆板，低情商。以至于这些低情商木讷想法，混沌无知的性格贯穿整个前半生，为了盲目努力的唯一信条，不懂社会运行的规则，不懂人情世故的重要，不懂利益交换的逻辑，不懂人性的狡诈多变，更不懂万物的周期规律。误打误撞半生，弄得满身疲惫，偶开眼界，青春早已不在，岁月也早已蹉跎，社会的本质就是丛林世界，人际交往的筹码就是你的价值，价值是别人定的，但价值的提升是你可以改变的。要想获得财富必须建立资产，你最重要的资产是投资自己，让自己更值钱，才能赚到钱。光靠机械的努力是无法改变命运的，比埋头努力更重要的是选对赛道。\n能力的关键伴生因素\n能力这事是流动的，若玩游戏你就明白，出生点位就决定了后续很多的发展方向和风格。看历史也有这种感觉。资源禀赋，交通情况，粮食产能等，这些因素，直接决定后续你应该怎么发展，人亦如此，出生家庭影响后续发展，每个人一生中有好几次重新选择点位，差不多背景的人处于不同的位置，完全就是两种完全不同的结果。\n相同的一个人，在小城市大城市完全是不一样的结果。在小城市去私企和去当公务员，也是完全不一样的结果， 位置对人的影响超过我们自己的想象（一个较好的描述概念是势能位）。位置不仅影响前途，而且影响想法和观念，甚至生活态度也跟着变。我们常说的富人思维和穷人思维，一部分确实是富人们的观念厉害，还有一部分完全就是他成为富人后自觉地就那么思考。\n环境塑造人\n如果把人分为S：顶级高手，A：正常高手，B：普通人，C：脑子不正常的人。S级的人只要环境相对公平竞争，在哪都是牛人。绝大部分人属于A或B，而A或B是相互转换的，这两种人差距并不大，一个正常人被安排到一个高挑战高压力的环境中，不断地被指派舒适区之外的工作，持续几个月不明显，持续几年且能顶得住的话，一样会强悍到难以想象，有些人才智平庸却考上985，也是在高中阶段找对办法潜力爆发B变成A，相反一个人本来很牛逼，名校毕业后被安排去天天填表格打扫卫生，几年下来也只能算是个填表达人；大学英语8级却不怎么用，10年后肯定和个高中生差不多，初中毕业出国不混唐人街，十年英语水平肯定完爆8级高手，所以环境对人的塑造更持久更有决定性。\n说点扎心话\n普通人往往在40岁左右才明白社会的真相，这时正是家庭的顶梁柱，各种压力山大。上层阶级在20岁左右就已经通透了，那是一种传承，几代人的智慧浇灌出来的。人最大的浪费就是时间的浪费，努力奋斗了半生，可能发现自己走的路是错的，几十年的努力抵不上一个正确的选择，最根本的还是自己的认知局限，及身边能影响自己的人的认知局限。\n很多人说的看不到未来其实是看到了未来，因为不甘心所以不愿承认。在40岁某一天突然发现，生命中最好的事情都已经发生过了，剩下的只是重复和老区，让你鼻子一酸的从来不是谁给你说的感悟，而是你似曾相识的经历和久久憋在心里的委屈，是你想说却不能说的心酸。\n辛劳不等于获得财富，整个社会财富的流转实际上是人与人之间博弈的结果，而博弈的技能在各种信息不对称的释放和信息获取中。谁处在信息食物链的顶端，从行业角度来看，获取信息量巨大的金融业，互联网业，政治始终在食物链中高于其它行业，比起其他行业，它们永远都能先闻到肉味，并且利用自身力量对其他行业造成信息不对称的隔阂。从人角度看，学历更高的人和拥有更多权力或技能的人，能在信息不对称中表现的更加精明强干，通俗点说，不太好蒙，且能通过自身力量对他人展出信息不对称能力。如医生说开刀5w，你绝对没有还价能力，病人如果只是一个普通人，哪怕是个小商人，因为自己的能力和阶级地位，决定了他每天都要被讨价还价，财富就是在这样一场场博弈中逐渐积累和丧失的。\n信息差永远存在，也是最快的赚钱方式之一，最典型的就是股市，信息差就是认知差距和认知时间差距。接触这个社会久了，会发现很多事情并非你想象的那样，你发现很多事情不公平，很多歪门邪道依然凑效，很多钻空子的人活得很好。但劝你千万别在自己改变不了的事情上耗费精力。你撞墙角了，你指着墙角一顿骂有什么用，有那功夫还不如去学学挖掘机，给他掘了就行了。\n没人帮你，因为帮你没有任何回报和义务，学会将自己的苦难与他人的苦难绑在一起，将帮助你的利益摆上台面，他人自然就会来帮你了。成年人的世界，没有利益上的驱动，就别指望他人热心肠对待。推送人进步的是不知足，但恰恰人性最恶的也是不知足，总觉得得不到的才是最好的，对得到的又不屑一顾。很多人成功于巨大的不满足，也失败于巨大的不满足，欲望可以让人振作，同样也可以将人吞噬。\n人际交往的规则的核心是一样的，是自我价值体现和趋利避害。工人抽烟喝酒一方面为了排遣干活的劳累，一方面是为了合群，吹牛是为了想显示和炫耀自己，在圈子里赢取尊重。研究派遣属于趋利，因为这样舒服；合群属于避害，打好关系和避免排挤，吹牛就是自我价值体现。高层次人群也是这点事，只不过形式换成了品茶，打高尔夫，欣赏艺术之类的。把人性吃透的人精，到什么层次都是交际花，平民子弟的逆袭之道，不仅要有专业技能等硬实力，更需熟谙社会规则，人性应用等软实力为跳板.\n借力\n北上深的天花板直插天际，大家没空窝里斗，每个人都活在极度焦虑中，就像每年都要高考一样，不断往出榨自己的潜力，自己单打独斗必然有上限，需要依赖别人提拔你，对你赋能。你也需要搭别人的快车。事实上我们一般说的环境，就是周围的各种人对你的影响，在脉脉上吐糟自己领导的员工，也不排除自己没领会到领导的真正能力，当然直属领导也可能就是去的早，不犯错就会有老领导护着。因为领导也需要多年追随自己的坚定支持者，越下层越是自由竞争，讲的是规则。越往上越是熟人社会，甚至王者荣耀顶级段位的人也互相认识，因为段位越高人越少，越容易变成熟人社会，他们互相之间的关系，不只是同事和生意伙伴，更是多次博弈后衍生出来的熟人关系。\n\n有点像你去办点什么事，要先预约，写申请，等审批，但若你的段位很高，对方领导跟你很熟，或想跟你很熟，可能这些事就都免掉了，直接把相关责任人推给你，一个礼拜的流程可能半个小时就解决了。\n由小及大，可能别人要几年才能搞定的事情，在一些大佬那里也就分分钟的事情，只要他愿意出手。马太效应也是这样发挥效果的，你能力越强，帮你的人能力也越强，到最后是指数倍的强。\n\n要破层先破圈\n\n总的来说这个社会是个圈层结构，却一直没人说清楚到底怎么个圈层。每个人既在圈中，又在层中，有的圈是跨层的，有的圈上限却很低。\n\n\n如果你不幸加入个倒霉的不断收缩下沉的圈，整体而言，你最好的结局也不会更好。\n每个人都在不同的圈层中，高考可以帮你破第一个层，但接下来的层却需要圈来破，圈又分为好几种，有的圈本身天花板就很低，它的上限都没法破层，更别说带着你破了。个人奋斗往往在这些圈层里才有意义，或者说这些圈层能放大你的努力，很多小镇做题家其实就是通过高考破了第一层，接下来怎么搞呢彻底懵逼了，如果你没有进入破层圈，上限也就定了，一辈子也就看到头了。太多的人知道自己的舒适区上升空间不大，想破局首先得思考破圈，但是因为舒适区问题，一直不敢去做，最想通过做题这种熟悉的操作解决所有问题，但是如果不懂破局先破圈，那最后也是耗子踩滚轮。\n闯关提升\n高考这个游戏，跟参加工作后的游戏机制不大一样，高考呢更加单元化一些，只要凑齐那么几个装备，就可以打到一个大boss，拿到奖品，参加工作后，游戏的规则变得越来越古怪，甚至没有明确的关卡和boss，不可能像高中一样，通过看书这一个动作，就取得最后的胜利。你需要摊上相对上升的行业，赏识你的领导，不错的运气，领导还得自己有能力，毕竟他能爬上去后才能把你给带上去，而且你自己的能力还得很强，有足够的的积累，把这些都凑齐了，才能每隔一段时间闯一次关，如果凑不齐，甚至连闯关的机会都没有，不少人的痛苦就在这里，毕业后闯关的标准，似乎变得捉摸不定，莫名几年的时间过去了，当初远不如自己的人，已风生水起，自己还在原地。\n\n爬得动的，基本这么几种\n\n\n有意无意加入了一个牛逼的圈，通过这个圈进入了下一个圈\n行业在暴涨，行业里的一部分人，也跟着上去了\n运气特别好\n\n小概率通道\n也不排除有些人有特殊天赋，这些天赋不仅限于数理化，包括当主播，哗众取宠，讲段子。上班创业往上爬，发展会非常缓慢，慢慢才能成为富人或牛逼人，而那些具有哗众取宠特质的人可能就是短短一两年的事，这不是时代的悲哀，恰恰只是成熟社会的特点，成熟社会里娱乐性质的职业爆发会非常快，只是想发达的人多，真正发达的人少罢了。美国那边年轻人的普遍梦想，也不是去nasa当科学家，普遍希望去当歌星，橄榄球明星，这两样才是爆发最快的。\n也有些人天赋一般，但对某件事充满独特的热爱，若有机会，这种人也能向上突破一次，热不热爱非常明显，就看不赚钱是否还能全身心投入，可以就是热爱.喜欢的这件事正好能在市场上找到买家，你也很可以飞黄腾达。但如爱下象棋这类找不到观众和买家的爱好就很难致富，因用户群太小，但如果你打游戏别人爱看，也可以称为月入百万的游戏主播。\n成就自己\n有的人给不了你钱，但可以为你卖命，给无能之辈一个可以鄙视他人的机会，他就会把命给你，就跟李逵给宋江卖命一样。\n能让你成为少数人的事都是反人性的，然你赚钱的事一定是顺应大多数人本性的。我们渴望自由，却无一不在枷锁之中，最重要的是看透枷锁，打造新的枷锁。\n大多数人想要的不是改变，而是一个理由/借口，让他们爽的理所当然，废物的天经地义。人是非常善于给自己洗脑的，80%的人不会承认自己不堪的一面。大众化的内容是一种束缚，为的就是让80%的人稳固在底层。\n真正读懂人性的那段时光，注定是要独自修复自己，勇敢面对一切，没有快乐，好像也没有不快乐，更豁达的接受很多人和事，逐渐平和的内心让现在的自己和以前的自己达成和解，坚韧而又无畏的前行。见天地，见众生，见自己，在自己的世界里独善其身，在别人的世界里顺其自然，做一个永远打不败的自己\n总结\n大部分人可以对马云的成功平常心对待，但很少有人能对大学室友发家熟视无睹，小镇做题家的痛苦其实主要是他们曾经也是狼，只是后来因缘际会，进入了一个静态通道，向上爬不动，陷入了无助和痛苦。\n每个人都是一步步走进了自己编织的困局，也要自己想办法走出来。面对不利处境，一反思就能明白，当初其实也有机会，只是当时被恐惧控制，选择了在舒适区待着，越选路越少。\n小镇做题家的脑子基本没有差的，但是普遍偏保守，渴望稳定，渴望确定性，这种方式没啥错，只是你的目的是稳定和确定性，大概率会获得一个同等的结果。\n解题中年危机\n普通人过了35岁，开始步入“觉醒重塑阶段”，社会的历练使其重新认知了这个世界，祛魅后明白了这个世界并不是像我们被教育的那般运转，那些一直被我们追求的东西，即使没得到也不再有强烈的渴求，开始减配，做减法，开始体验孤独带来的快感，开始“自我”，每天都有不同的发现，认知，顿悟，接纳一切发生，顺其自然。\n碰到问题最难立足的是老实孩子，没有家底，却有家教。法家锁喉，儒家插肋。你若是持善，唯有活成道家，平凡修身，顺应自然。若是弃善，那是另外一说，要么成枭雄要么成狂徒。\n不全是钱的问题\n常提的城市中年危机不仅仅是钱的问题，不然你很难理解为什么很多人遇到中年危机后反而去做一些根本没有胜算的创业项目去翻盘，这可以叫做失业型创业。就是手里有些积蓄，被裁员之后找不到工作只得创业，结果往往是赔了几万甚至上百万，被社会毒打之后老老实实去卖保险了。他陪的几十上百万用来养家，能坚持若干年呢，所以中年危机不全是钱的问题。\n我们行走在这个社会上，需要三个标签\n\n身份标签，是雇佣你的那个企业所赋予你的标签，某大厂总监啦，副总裁啦。\n第二类叫能力标签，就你身上打铁还需自身硬的那个能力，大部分职场打工人这个能力标签是很虚妄的，根本不硬，甚至脱离了公司那套螺丝钉系统，根本就不能独立闭环赚到钱。\n第三个标签是市场标签，通过产品链接到的资源和人脉的这个标签，很多人一旦失业之后，这些人脉资源立马翻脸不认人，因为人家看得是你公司，根本不是看的你这个人。\n\n大部人职场打工人只有第一个标签，中年危机最大的问题就是一旦公司剥夺了你这个身份标签，你其实就是社会性身份死亡，商业社会追求的是价值交换，谁愿意和一个身份标签是中年下岗待业的人交换价值呢？很多人为了社交身份的复苏，他必须得去创业，必须重新给自己一个XX总的身份标签，攒了一辈子的积蓄应付创业其实根本坚持不了几天，于是得到的结果就是中年返贫。\n不错的解法\n\n\n开始着手建立一个公司拿不走你的身份标签。\n\n\n例如你去写一本书，畅销书作者可以是一个不依靠公司的身份标签。\n\n\n可以做自媒体，百万粉丝播主，可能在自媒体圈并不算厉害，但它可能在长江商学院，清华五道口同学里就吸睛了，这可是比公司标签闪亮的多得多的身份标签，同学群里上市公司易得，百万大V难求，每次聚会只要是关于如何理解新媒体，如何理解新流量，如何建立创始人IP的话题，这样估计总能吸引一大群的上市公司同学向你请教。\n\n\n还有一些讲师认证，可给你带来一些独立培训的业务，特别是金融机构券商这些，他们总想人找给他们去做培训，给他们那些理财师啊，投顾做财经IP培训。市面上财经博主很多，但有认证资格的不多。这些都是不依赖公司背景的。\n\n\n\n\n第二个是建立自己的能力闭环的标签。\n\n\n第三是建立公司拿不走的人脉资源。\n\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"少不读水浒","url":"/%E5%B0%91%E4%B8%8D%E8%AF%BB%E6%B0%B4%E6%B5%92.html","content":"\n水浒传行走江湖，快意恩仇，杀富济贫，只是表象，隐藏在表象下的，是梁山英雄充沛的『生命力』，这是生命力的奔放和宣泄，是人体内潜藏的冲动本能，不需要任何附加的深刻意义。明清之后，中国人越来越讲究忍让克制，代价就是上上下下一片死气沉沉，任人欺负，甚至连一声呐喊的能力都被消磨掉了。四大名著之所以不朽，是里面的生命力在时时蓬勃跳动，为沉默压抑的人们保住了火种。\n招安的必然性\n昨天短视频里推荐了武松过飞云浦的一段，评论中又如常的争论起来，谈马下武松，论这种场景只有天伤星武松能逃脱，卢员外和豹子头都将歇菜，说鲁提辖有低血糖毛病也挣不脱，争武松是不是滥杀无辜，提擒方腊死伤梁山众将都怪宋押司这个投降派，梁山的悲剧都怪这黑厮。相信这最后一个论调是男性观众都会有的第一感受，但这个事情真的这么简单吗？有爱好者对梁山的处境做过一番分析，个人觉得非常在理，跳脱常规情绪，招安实在是最好的一条归宿。\n招安到底对不对？\n看看水浒的人员结局\n朝廷毒死二人，宋押司和卢员外，被宋押司毒死一人，李逵。\n自杀殉了二人，吴用花荣（在宋押司坟前，很多人在评论里说在忠义堂，不知道是不是受影视剧影响没看原著）\n做官+退隐共33人，征方腊途中意外死亡5人（淹死4人+毒蛇1人），战死54人，病死11人（算上鲁提辖圆寂）。意外和生命随时可能发生，真正因为征方腊战死就54人，刚好一半。\n梁山造反就不死人，不生病，不发生意外了吗？当然不是，招安不招安梁山都是要死人的，区别就是战死多少的问题，是坚持造反死的多还是招安死的多呢？\n造反的结局\n\n造反失败死光光\n造反成功，但死一半就想做皇帝，就有点太天真了。至少得牺牲一大半，招安死一半算是个不错的结果了。\n\n招安是定数\n\n从结果来看，招安是成功的。下面来看看，宋押司为什么一定要选择招安了。\n人员结构\n三部分组成：民间黑社会草根，有罪在身朝廷官吏降将。草根杀老百姓还算牛，但是和官军作战是不行的。所以要反围剿只能重用朝廷武将，而朝廷武将能投降梁山也一定能投降朝廷，而且他们知道做官的好处。无论何时内心都是向往的，不带着招安下面人也可以自己搞。这也是梁山为什么没有分兵去占领城池的重要原因，把这些人撒出去，谁知道他们会不会主动寻求招安呢。为了把大家牢牢困在一起，宋江才发明了108将制度，大家都待在梁山上，彼此挟持，谁都甭想叛变。\n经济条件\n打仗打的是钱，梁山因为人员结构决定了他占领城池之后不能守（官军会来围攻），就连梁山脚下的乡镇县城，也因为山上缺少读书人，也没有形成有效的治理。梁山为什么缺少读书人？正经读书人为什么当土匪啊？朝廷的科举不香吗，能读得起书的也没那么穷。\n没有治理的结果就是，梁山缺乏可持续发展的能力，只能对外进行掠夺，而为了安全又不能离梁山太远。随着时间发展，梁山能抢的地方必然越来越少，如果朝廷不攻只围，来个坚壁清野，梁山就被困死了。\n梁山的力量在不断壮大过程中，人口也越来越多，经济问题就摆在了眼前。\n\n林冲上山时，柴进向其介绍梁山说3个好汉聚集着700~800小喽啰\n清风寨拉秦明上山时说，晁天王聚集着三五千兵。\n宋江一打祝家庄时起兵6千小喽啰，马军300，算上守山人马，姑且认为三打祝家庄前梁山1万人。\n\n算算账\n一万人一顿伙食20文，那么就是20w，来壶酒吃块肉一天50文打不住。当1两银子1000文，那么就是200两，一个月6千两，一年就是7万两。\n这还没算工资，一个月工资发2两，一年下来就是24w两。这还不算管理层分红和其它不必要的开支，马得买吧兵器得造吧，一年四季衣服得换吧，节约的话，梁山一年开支可能要50w两。\n物资有钱还不一定买的齐。这些事晁盖一定不会操心，但宋江一上山看账本，这离破产不远了啊，解决财政问题的唯一出路就是抢。这不瞄上了祝家庄（山头），跟着宋大哥有肉吃有酒喝有钱花。\n但招安还不够规模，接下来攻打城市高唐州，从区域性团伙到全国性反贼，有资格成为朝堂上探讨的对象。\n段景住来投，他本是倒卖马匹，但马匹是军需物资，是国家管控的，倒卖军用品抓住了脑袋不保，商人就是不能吃亏，他的马（大金国王子的坐骑）被曾头市抢了，跪倒在宋江面前，说要献给宋江的马被曾家五虎夺了去。晁盖被压得太久了，连个军师都不带，奔向了自己的生命终点。\n年龄与战斗力\n从梁山的年龄来说，梁山大聚义的时候宋押司都快40了, 卢员外30多，大宋的平均寿命也就这样了。梁山好汉大多是老宋的同龄人，他们现在是人生的高峰，但是随着岁数的增长身体必然越来越差。\n且大家看梁山的饮食，个个都是酒不离口肉不离手。如此生活方式大大加速好汉们战力的衰退。招安后关胜就是喝醉了坠马而死。在朝廷死了还有后来人补，在梁山死了就无法补充了。\n你能想象50岁的林冲对战20岁的朝廷少年吗? 除非宋江能在10年内消灭大宋，不然梁山的老龄化来临，同样是思路一条。\n大家可能就要问了，梁山就不能生育吗，就问你女人从哪来，到山下抢吗？你有他没有，队伍还怎么带，要么大家一起当光棍，要么一个都不能少，你在哪去找上万的育龄妇女，弄上山又怎么养，有家有口了怕不是战斗力衰退的更快。\n民心向背\n最关键的民心，别看梁山喊的是替天行道，那是梁山的自我美化，在李逵做官那个部分，梁山在百姓心中形象就是土匪，舆论是掌握在朝廷手里的，每天一个告示，梁山就算做了些好事也都被覆盖了，更别说吴用还屠了大名府。虽说朝廷烂吧，梁山也强不到哪去，民心在朝廷梁山怎么会成功？\n宋头领的觉悟\n从宋押司个人来说，当官是他个人的梦想，老大不小了想有所成就，且他的身体也不怎么好，梁山那么多事要操心，人际关系要维持，他累啊，一直造反一直累，招安就可以退休了。就算被朝廷弄死，他也完成名垂青史的目标。\n无论如何作为反贼被人唾弃，他是不要的。宋江对于死是有觉悟的，作为造反头子，朝廷极大可能不会放过他，明知是死也要招安，说一点没为兄弟考虑是假的，毕竟所有人都知道要死也是老大先死。\n事实上宋江也为大多数兄弟找了条不错的路，至于战死的也没办法，无论如何都是要死人的。希望梁山一直存在却不死人的，那只能是幻想。既然一定要有所牺牲，那么就选一条牺牲最少的，收益最大的。\n为何民众不理解\n既然招安是对的，为何很多人觉得宋江很恶心呢，因书中将宋江招安的心态表现的太急切，近乎没有尊严，且也没有像我们上面这样去写梁山面临的困境，如果不换位思考，看起来宋江就是出卖兄弟。\n其实老宋只是在梁山最强大的时候，把梁山卖了一个好价钱。所以宋江无所谓信仰，他所追求的一直以来的都是现实利益最大化，这才是宋江的真面目。\n乌托邦的破灭\n水浒英雄打不下江山，花果山猴子也打不下天庭，悲剧是古今中外一切乌托邦（大观园、永无岛、桃花源）的命运，要么被内部力量冲破，要么被外来的力量打破，乌托邦一定是无法长久维持的。\n家破人亡套餐卢员外\n被逼上梁山人很多，有被女人逼的，有被官府逼的，但有一小撮人，有些特殊，他们衣食无忧，他们身家清白，在家里吃着火锅哼着歌，突然来了一波兄弟，对他说，来吧，兄弟，不要迟疑，梁山欢迎你。不想去？那就是不想给宋大哥面子，家破人亡套餐已经给你热好了。\n这其中，卢俊义的上山尤其突然，像是管理层心血来潮的从北宋胡润榜上找了一位会武功的。没有一点点防备，他就出现在了梁山的名单上。让我们看看卢老爷上山背后的故事。\n晁天王坑货遗言\n晁天王中箭，宋大哥收到消息后一边抹着眼泪一边开始准备第二天的就职演说发言稿，他告诉圣手萧让，润色这稿子时，要悲痛中饱含力量，绝望中透出希望，当晚萧让被逼的差点上吊。晁天王眼看着只有出的气没有进的气了，宋大哥揣好就职演说稿，就等天王咽气前的那一句：贤弟，就由你干下一任，接着就是伏地痛苦哥哥你别走，众人恳求，自己推辞，众人再哭求，自己再力辞，直到李逵喊着，哥，你要是不领导我们，我现在就死。此时，才能抬头45度，让一滴眼泪慢慢从自己的黑脸上滑落，发出一声轻微的叹息，既然如此，哥就勉为其难吧。虽然只是走个形式，但是读过书明事理的人，都在朝中做官了，梁山兄弟们讲的是排面，表面功夫要做足。\n但那天晁天王展现了自己第一遗言家的风采，彻底打乱了宋大哥的计划。他说，贤弟，哪个捉得射死我的，哪个顶我的位。演讲稿用不上了，问题变得很棘手。宋大哥后悔死了，自己怎么提前把招安的想法透露给了晁盖？如果当时自己说，要把梁山健身事业做大做强，卖课撸铁拿冠军，晁天王死前一定心满意足的把权杖交给自己，现在天王生气了，临死前还在跟宋江怄气。\n记得晁天王刚中箭时，所有人都跃跃欲试，武松喝多了，大着舌头说：史文恭知不知道我的名字就叫今晚打老虎，林冲冷笑道，这厮马上枪棒还可以，八成是跟他师娘学的。李逵挥舞着板斧，骂得比较粗糙，他说我要把姓史的打出屎来。可现在这句临终怄气遗言，更像是临终诅咒，梁山此刻变成水泊上的黑珍珠号，每个人都噤若寒蝉，史文恭从人人喊打变成了无人敢抓，一旦抓了就要继承。宋大哥要当话事人，史文恭就是龙头棍。问题是不要说曾头市绝顶高手史文恭，就是曾头市的老太公，宋大哥如果凭自己本事，怕是也只能跟老人家五五开，看似已成僵局，但是难不倒奇谋妙计宋大哥。\n引入强力外援\n几天后，他召集所有员工告诉他们，晁天王的仇一定要报，但经过公司慎重考虑，俱乐部决定引入一名强力外援，这名被称为强力外援的人，此刻正在自己的大庄园里，吹吹风，喝喝酒，在他眼中，只有自家这美丽的别墅庄园，有屋又有田，生活乐无边。管家得力，妻子漂亮，小乙（燕青）能干，所有人都会称赞他卢老爷真是个体面人。\n有钱人上梁山，背景调查要做足，像柴老板这样的，有钱敢折腾天天养着几百杀人犯的大佬，自然受所有人爱戴，可毕竟是少数。勾结官府的不能选，联手恶霸的不能要，考虑到已有好汉的感受，霸占人妻的pass，坑害忠良的pass，范围无限缩小，条件直逼圣人，本以为在水浒世界，这样的珍稀物种已经灭绝，万万没想到，目标人物出现。梁山河北办事处的兄弟收集了卢俊义的信息，上流社会，有钱有闲，不干坏事，武力一线。听到这个消息，宋大哥激动地好几天没睡着。武力值方面，全国武术枪棒冠军的头衔足够震撼，史文恭毕竟手到擒来。但这只是表面，卢老爷的用途远不止于此。\n一切围绕招安\n宋大哥反复强调，一切围绕招安，一切为了招安，我们一定要招安，我们一定能招安，但想要朝廷看得起，必须自身有点东西。卢老爷这样的正面形象，如果加入梁山，必然能极大地提升企业形象。在此之前，在梁山上漫山遍野奔跑着的是，都是疯狗李逵，跳蚤时迁一类的野生动物，朝廷招安的特派员来到山上，就如同踏入了动物世界，叫出名字不好听，宋大哥面子上不好看，公司估值上不去，而一旦卢老爷加入后，人们谈论梁山会发现上流社会，竟然也有人甘愿抛弃庄园产业跑到一个湖心岛上自得其乐，看来水泊有好人，梁山有前途。这支股票买它！如果再补上一句，卢老爷这样的人物在梁山也只能担任二号，那么一号该是何等英雄？\n想到这里，宋大哥先是偷笑，随后一拍桌子怒吼道，卢俊义我吃定了，徽宗也留不住，我说的。宋大哥豪言已经出口，如何兑现就是下面人的事儿了，吴学究认为自己的赚人技巧天下无双，但缺乏代表作，这个大case的出现让他塑造心中的完美作品成为可能。教授的水平就是高，在把握人心方面登峰造极，他明白像卢老爷这样的成功人士，买东西都是不求最好，但求最贵，于是算卦开口就是一千，贵人一万。对于这样的定价卢老爷非常满意。如果和普通人一样价格，逼格何在？\n眼前的算命组合不按套路出牌，以前这帮大忽悠都是吉祥话说不完，但今天这位上来就说你有血光之灾。经过了吴教授的一番忽悠，生在豪门没有受过苦的卢老爷突然感到了一阵枯燥和乏味，他一边告诉家人，世界那么大，我想去看看。一边感激地握着教授的手说，你来的太及时了，我怎么早没发现我有血光之灾呢？\n对于燕青的警告，李固的劝告，夫人的挽留，卢老爷通通回绝，想每个师父都说我功夫天下无双，梁山几个小毛贼，我分分钟教他们做人。\n一人包围一万人\n一路向东南前进，路过梁山时，卢老爷扛着横幅，向梁山发起了自杀式冲锋，他准备用自己一个人，包围梁山一万人。由于吴用负责的HR面已经通过，在经过李逵，武松，鲁智深等部门经理的重重面试后，卢老爷被捆到了忠义堂前，宋大哥双手递上信封，语重心长的说，卢员外，这是梁山给你发的special offer，卢老爷当场就撕了，平时就很鄙视贪官，更鄙视盗贼，他做梦都想不到有人让他当强盗。\n看着卢老爷愤怒的挣扎，宋大哥又笑了。新来的给脸不要脸，这就是梁山的名场面。后续行动，那就请各位经理再配合一小下，吴军师送管家李固下山，告诉他你们老爷已经干土匪了，回家怎么做自己看着办，李固对这天赐良机立马心领神会。\n在梁山上，卢老爷经历了人生中最漫长的饭局，第一天，宋大哥请吃龙虾，第二天吴教授请吃鲍鱼，第三天公孙法师请吃仙丹，依次继续，他怀疑这样下去，是不是要吃一千零一夜，才能回去。四个月后，打圈完毕，在苦苦的哀求下，宋大哥终于同意，放人回家。卢俊义觉得自己梁山这一趟，虽没做成什么买卖，但是认识了一些真好汉，他们都拿自己当兄弟，这年头据说人脉也很重要，这波不亏。\n归城被捕梁山救人\n卢员外从城外一回来，第一个看见的就是前门大街正在乞讨的小乙。小乙边哭边诉说自己被李管家和贾氏扫地出门的情景，卢老爷听了大怒，大骂小乙，你小子简直是张口就来，李固和贾蓉是不会背叛我的，可惜结局和卢老爷想的有些差距，很快他就到了监狱里。在监狱里，李固说：”哥，卢府已经改李府了，为了小贾你认罪吧！“，贾蓉说：”老爷，李固是个值得托付的人，但我们是清白的，darling你快画押“。\n人的一生有许许多多的夜晚，很多都是没有意义的，但是大名府死囚牢的那一夜，对于卢老爷来说，意义重大。他想了很多，到底是梁山害了我，还是管家和老婆害了我？思考的结果不得而知，只知道在梁山大军将他救出来时，宋大哥面带歉意，吴军师脸色微红，他们说，员外，我们来迟了。卢老爷想，这一切应该归咎于李固贾蓉，更应该归咎于梁山，可现实是囚徒不好当，人要往前看，世界上只剩一条路，但仇人是收费员，那到底要不要交钱？\n只听威震天下的玉麒麟朗声答道：全是我的经纪人串通老婆，谋夺家产要害我！多亏梁山兄弟救我，宋大哥万岁万万岁！宋大哥和教授相视一笑，不愧是卢老爷，一下就想通，事办得真体面。\n上梁山立大功\n上了梁山后，得知了晁天王的诅咒，卢俊义有点慌，左看右看，上看下看，原来每个好汉都不简单。小乙端来洗脚水，卢老爷一边泡脚一边陷入深深的思考，这些不简单的好汉，他们平时开口宋大哥，闭口吴教授，左一句鲁大师，右一声林教头，问题我这个外来户，脸上可是一点麻子都没有啊。\n怕什么就来什么，曾头市战场上，宋大哥那边已经布下了天罗地网，各位好汉全都奋勇争先，但是没有一个人敢碰史文恭一根手指，连史文恭都很纳闷，自己是不是开了挂，一个人怎么就从几千人的包围圈中毫发无损的杀出来了，正在诧异中，一把砍刀划破夜空招呼过来，史文恭应声落马，卢老爷毕竟上山时间短，看到敌人要逃，条件反射出手，等回过味来，才惊恐发现，自己真的抓了史文恭。\n忠义堂上，宋大哥躬身行礼，指着第一把交椅说，按照天王遗愿，卢老爷你请。卢俊义惶恐的看了看四周友善的眼神，做了平生最完美的演讲，他声泪俱下的说：”英雄身后是英雄，好汉身边有好汉，在梁山的领导下，在宋大哥的指挥下，我才有了今天的成绩，如果说我得了100分，那么宋大哥完成了前面99分，却将最后的1分体面留给卢某，你们说，谁该当大哥，我选宋大哥，谁赞成，谁反对？“\n掌声响起来，忠义堂放起了愉快的音乐，卢老爷掏出手绢擦了擦汗，刚才厕所偷听吴军师的话，言犹在耳，他要是不体面，你们就帮他体面。生在大名府富豪之家，从小练就了一身绝世武功，可社会经验等于零，拿了爹给的几个亿，就以为自己很行，遇到宋江之后，才明白了谁是大哥，什么叫忠义江湖，一切根本不像小说中说的那样，武林高手，江湖畅游，功夫高万事都能摆得平，因为有功夫而没实力，头一个死的就是你。\n卢老爷在梁山唯一做对的事，就是宋大哥谦让寨主之位时没有顺杆上，说“感谢大哥提拔，那小弟就不客气了”，只能说，经过家破人亡，亲信背叛的大挫折后，他长大了。\n如果他真敢坐虎皮椅，那么喝了毒酒落船淹死的杀青戏，相信会再提前几年，毕竟咱们梁山泊还缺水吗？\n梁山在哪\n水浒的浒字，最早见于《诗经》，就是水边的意思。梁山是一座山（主峰海拔197.9米，按当地地面海拔算起，只有150米，相当于胡夫金字塔的高度），在今天山东西南部的梁山县，其周围的水今天已经全干了，春秋到汉代，叫“巨野泽”，是当时九大湖之一（刘邦的大将彭越，就在这里打渔，是游击武装和强盗的欢乐谷）。五代以后，黄河经常决口。后晋天福九年（公元994年），黄河在河南滑县决口，大水漫灌，最后在梁山周围聚积起来，将原来的巨野泽扩大，就叫梁山泊，这个名字也是五代之后才有。此后黄河经常决口，梁山泊就越来越大和有名。\n水浒除了发生在水边的故事，还有一些发生在山边的故事痕迹，例如黄泥岗书里说在太行山，郓城县离太行山三四百里，能跑这么远去劫道？梁山是座小山，但水浒里描写梁山，很像一座高大险峻，易守难攻的山寨。这是因为水浒传还融合了一些南宋初年北方抗金忠义军的故事，这比宋江活动的时间晚了二三十年。北宋亡了，但北方还有许多被打散的宋军，就自发组成许多队伍，和金人打仗，这些民间军队，统称为忠义军，打游击，正好河北山西交界的太行山，合适，高大险峻，有多少兵马都可以藏在里面。水浒里的梁山好汉，很多是军官出身，如智深做过提辖，这是忠义军队伍的特征。太行山和梁山泊，同样流传着好汉故事，传着传着就合并了。\n其之所以易守难攻，在水不在山，周围港汊数千条，四方环绕八百里，这种地貌的湿地，适合藏人马，打游击。就像雄安新区的白洋淀，还保留着华北湿地的基本样子，也是抗日战争游击队的重要战场。\n自南宋到元代之后，因黄河改道，梁山泊失去了水源，不断缩小。今天唯一留下的水面，叫东平湖，此湖离梁山已经三十多里。变成梁山有山没水，东平有水没山，两者一直在争。\n真实的宋江打仗比水浒传里厉害多了，史书上说他“勇悍狂侠”，数万官军，都不敢和他交锋。后来中了名将张叔夜的埋伏，才投降了朝廷。只是没什么证据证明这位真实的宋江和梁山泊有关系，也不知道他到底是哪里人，既然故事中梁山泊成了他的大本营，就干脆把他的老家安在山东郓城县–梁山泊的边上。\n宋江的三十六个兄弟，只有他留下了名字。到了南宋时期，人们就开始给这三十六人起名字编故事。南宋有个人叫龚开，写了一篇《宋江三十六赞》，出现了完整三十六人名单，但有晁盖、孙立、没有公孙胜、林冲。到了元代，出现一本《大宋宣和遗事》，把这些人的故事写得更详细，大部分被吸收到水浒传里了。\n施耐庵生平与笔力\n\n施耐庵这个名字在正史中并无记载，作者的考证，尚有疑问，大家权且一看\n\n36岁得中进士，结识了同榜进士刘伯温，在钱塘县尹任职，当时做事要得到元人担任的达鲁花赤（蒙语 掌印者的意思，即督官）批准，不得志触怒元人，愤然辞官，在苏州施家桥办学授徒，手下了一个商人儿子罗贯中为徒。后贩卖私盐的张士诚起兵反元，其属下卞元亨是施耐庵表弟，在卞元亨邀请下，施耐庵做了张士诚的军师。后因为张降元，施耐庵多次劝谏不听，意见不合，辞别张士诚开始游学。\n内战内行，外战外行，在人心描写和角色塑造上笔力很强，但在作战书写方面就跟不上，描写草草。\n\n108将排位最后是时迁和段景住，这就是“时过境迁，此段光景难驻”，大排位后，就开始走下坡路了。\n梁山三位寨主，名字先后为王伦，晁盖，宋江，倒过来看，你可以看作宋朝亡。宋朝江山改朝换代（晁盖），王朝轮换（王伦）。\n宋江，宋清，分别是老三老四，宋将倾，非一木所支，而宋字下面就是一个木字，水浒传写的就是宋亡，写的就是末日来临，不久之后靖康之耻，宋江招安不招安，结果都是末日。\n大宋那么多起义主角，天魁宋江，地魁朱武，朱明就是作者在经历的时代，对宋江充满惋惜和向往，不得不接受历史的滚滚洪流\n\n元末明初写就水浒传，但朱元璋查禁，无人敢印，直到嘉靖年间，才付诸刻印。\n一些地理描写错误\n\n林暮冬时节上梁山，水不结冰，还山排巨浪，水接瑶天。\n杨志押生辰纲，出发地在北京大名府，也即当今河北大名县，只要一路向西南就能到开封，竟然往东南跑山东绕一圈，在郓城县把生辰纲丢了，且书中提到的黄泥冈在太行山，是另一个问题了\n宋刺配江州牢城，即今天九江市，宋从郓城县（梁山南边）到江州只要一路向南，为何又向北走了几十里跑到梁山泊附近被晁盖劫上山\n宋在江州（九江）题了反诗后，戴宗去开封送信，居然又经过梁山泊。\n武松回家路线也神奇，从柴大官人在沧州的庄园出来，回河北清河，本来是省内旅游，居然跑到山东阳谷县打死一只老虎。沧州去阳谷是会路过清河县的，不知多绕这段是为何。\n有些回本中写宋江打辽国，说霸州有两个隘口两边都是险峻高山，可霸州都是一马平川的大平原，小土包都没有。\n\n创作者对北方路线不熟，对北方地貌也不熟。另外，梁山好汉为了完成任务，竟然可以大队人马全国乱跑，不被沿途官军发现。除了不熟悉北方地理（写征方腊时，一条河，一座桥，都符合当地地理），对军事问题也不太熟悉，写英雄好汉，人情世故，都入木三分，但写到军事，就逊色的多，还有很多错误。\n水浒的优异\n水浒的设定实在真实，英雄也会得病，也要吃饭，也有老小要照顾，沦落成囚犯，也会受到差役的欺压，手里没钱了，一样走投无路要变卖祖传宝刀。\n西游记悟空每到没办法时，总有满天神佛相助，而水浒里没有人可以倚靠。最后若写好汉招安为国屡立战功，封妻荫子，世代富贵，好听了，但这是廉价的结尾，起义军的下场历史上就是水浒这样的。\n像俞万春的《荡寇志》，写张叔夜1121年擒宋江，从此万民乐业，恭承天命，永享太平，可靖康耻就在1127年，合着这永享太平也就6年时间。\n残忍与血腥\n如何评价《水浒传》里的负能量，无数的凶杀场面只当是很寻常的事。作者并没有刻意说这种行为多么正确，也没有为这种行为辩护。古代与今天比起来，是非常残酷和不安全的，古人见到的死亡太多，瘟疫，疾病，战争，孩子夭折家常便饭。还有溺死女婴等，这些今天看来都是蓄意谋杀的事在古代也经常发生。古代饥荒爆发的严重性，频繁性，是今人很难想象的，即便经济发达的宋代，也出现多次「人相食」，元代更多，短短九十七年，见于史料记载的人相食就有几十次，所以水浒作者多次写吃人肉，当时并不觉得有什么下不去笔。在杀人这件事上，梁山好汉和官府的做派是半斤八两，即便是童话一般的《西游记》，八戒，沙僧都曾做过吃人的妖怪，吃了几百年的人。\n《水浒》对普通人生命是漠视，无感的，这种无感，普遍存在于古代社会中。文学是反映人心的，科技没那么发达，社会没那么安定，法律没那么人性，都会影响人们的普遍心态，影响到文学上，就是拿人命不那么当回事。这种心态直到新中国成立后，才慢慢消失。早期武侠小说也有一些无辜路人被随意杀害的情节，后期才越来越人性化，笔下越来越有节制。\n梁山好汉的替天行道，大体是处死贪官和劫富济贫，杀贪官是平民愤，劫富济贫是利民生。看上去是大家喜闻乐见的（不像当今的工业社会，财富永远在增长，当时财富就那么多，大户的钱粮往往是靠不道义的手段压榨周围穷人而来），但社会并不能靠这种激烈的非常规手段促进公平。让通臂猿猴开办服装厂，让轰天雷研发开矿爆破技术，没准更加有利民生，当然这在当时是不切实际的幻想，也不是梁山好汉所能想到的。\n读古代文学作品时，应看到古人的苦难和无奈，理解他们为什么这么做，这么写。例如我们并不知道，一千年后的人看现在的文学，会不会也觉得反感和厌恶（每天许多人像填鸭式的挤在地铁里，会不会也打呼灭绝人性呢）。另一方面，我们要看到优秀的文学作品都是在深刻的描写人性，弘扬正气还是娱乐大众，只是它的副产品。人性有光辉的一面，也有阴暗的一面，好的作品，一定不会无视、回避、而是如实地书写。不是创作者残酷，而是当时的社会就是这样的残酷，人性中就有这样的残酷。写出来后，创作者的任务就完成了，该思考的，是我们自己。\n宋公明的魅力从哪来\n宋江论出身，不如柴进；论相貌不如卢老爷，论武功就不用说了，矮脚虎他也不是对手。但大家都服他，见了无不纳头便拜，和他为难的人，一听说是宋江，立即就换面孔，原来是及时雨宋公明哥哥，小弟有眼不识泰山。宋江是江湖上义气的标杆，当上梁山泊的领袖，实至名归。\n水浒的伟大就在于它的现实，水浒里的江湖，有别于武侠小说，谈情说爱，捡到武功秘籍，遇到世外高人。水浒的江湖是一个凶险的世界，正所谓但凡能安居乐业，谁去流浪江湖。江湖上吃饱肚子的时候少，饿着的时候多，有钱的时候少，扬眉吐气的时候少，活着的少，残酷恐慌，冰冷阴暗。在这样的江湖，好汉最需要什么？不是神兵利器，不是武功秘籍，而是关爱，谁能慷慨的给他们温暖，谁就是义的化身，受到尊重，有号召力。『仗义疏财，扶危济困』八个字，正是宋江立身扬名的本钱。宋江在上层社会没名气，因为他们少有在江湖遇到困窘时刻，但在底层哪里，他绝对是神一样的存在。何况宋江待人是不分高低的，这就是他有别于柴大官人之处。\n今天出门有高铁高速，到处有餐馆旅社，不行还可以找警察，只要勤劳不愁没工作，穷不至于饿死人，所以大家的兴趣集中在明星或专家身上，所以难想象过去能做到那 8 个字的人是多么的难得。宋江哪怕在落难途中也不改乐善好施，被押解江州，路过揭阳镇，遇到病大虫薛永在街上打把式卖艺没人打赏，见他惶恐，便叫公人取出五两银子来，给其道『教头，我是个犯罪的人，没甚与你。这五两白银权表薄意，休嫌轻微』，要说他收买人心，他和薛永素不相识，路上偶遇，以后也未必再相见，有什么人心可买，可说是真正的仗义了。然而薛永此刻需要的，正是钱啊。柴也不是不款待武，他待人是不能始终如一的。柴称武为大汉，连个名字都没，可见他对客人是多么漫不经心了。反过来看宋，他在柴庄上还是客人，却和武一处安歇，还拿出钱来给武做衣服。送别武时，更体现了宋的细致，拿了银两，一送再送，还请吃一顿饭，望不见了才回来。这样的温暖，怎能不让武死心塌地，认这位大哥呢，其实宋只花了十两，相当于柴见人就给的十贯钱，另外柴还搭了一斗白米。\n说慷慨，柴花的钱比宋不知多多少倍，但如果只是给钱给物，与养条小狗有什么区别？宋对人的关心，是经济上的，又是精神上的，且始终如一的，符合江湖上对义的要求，这就是他成为及时雨，受到好汉拥戴的原因。\n晁盖的作风，和宋很像，爱结识好汉，仗义疏财，但没提他扶危济困，周济穷人，替人排忧解难。这里正是本质区别，一个自发的义，不计宋超越社会阶级的自觉的义。虽然在胡乱杀过人方面，晁比宋强得多，也够厚道和真诚，但做事太粗糙，缺乏通盘的计划，信马由缰的干，是独行侠的生活，不是领袖的生活。把决策权完全交给别人如吴用，说好听点是对属下信任，不好听就是缺乏谋略，不负责任。\n真实历史上的宋，被评勇悍狂侠，应是能打仗，胆子大，很像智深。小说，戏曲，民间故事，甚至电视里面的宋都不一样，也就是不同的媒介里，会拥有不同的性格。人物性格会受到媒介形式的影响，这是一种很重要的思考方法。\n另外，书中同是酒后吐真言，一个要造反要当黄巢，血染浔阳江口，一个要招安，平虏保国安民。哪个为真，人性没有那么简单，这是其心中不同小人的声音。文学是描摹人性的，越是名著人物越难随便给人贴标签，大家喜欢讨论他，为一个文学人物争吵，正因为其身上，具备我们所有人的多层心理，雄心壮志，说谎耍赖，慷慨大方，自私自利。\n一个较奇特的角色公孙胜\n入云龙公孙胜较早的离开队伍，从命数上看，他了解了造反之事在宋江来了之后成不了。\n晁盖没有大抱负，宋江一心想招安。这跟刘秀有二十八宿就开创东汉局面很不一样，将熊熊一窝。\n靖康之难降至，不打碎这个旧世界，维护的出路已看透，索性不如归隐。\n电视剧与原著\n98年水浒传针对原著有很多丰富和修改，但拍的很精致，满足了民众的胃口，属实可称精品，尤其是老电视剧的选角，不说先入为主，着实非常用心审慎。\n\n举两个原著与影视的差异\n\n\n起码很多人一张嘴武松单臂擒方腊，可书上是花和尚在山林的房子里绑的\n林冲也是在征方腊成功后病死的\n\n其它版本不及98版就不说了，部分情节也借用98版的改造设定，如武松单臂擒方腊。\n三国与水浒的对比\n梁山好汉主体是市民阶层，比三国里的精英阶层差了一大截，对社会底层的描写和关注恰恰是水浒的优秀之处。\n三国里曹操为父报仇打徐州，需要白旗白甲，一个命令全军就完成了，这些装备是谁赶做的，是不用问的，看到三国英雄叱咤风云，可曾想过战马病了谁来治，盔甲坏了谁来修，饿了饭菜谁来安排。\n三国写押运粮草，几句话就到了前线，可曾想过这些运粮的士兵，赶上酷暑怎么办，辛苦不辛苦，想不想家，押队的将领对他们好不好，路上的饥民有无动过抢劫的心思。水浒里告诉你杨志押运生辰纲，热得嘴里冒火，无比辛苦。三国几句话就打下一座城，可曾想过，会不会有人趁火打劫，普通人家的孩子躲在门缝看到满城乱跑的兵马，是害怕他们的刀枪，还是羡慕他们的威风，水浒说了，剿匪的官兵下到三阮的村子，就要大抢，百姓不堪其扰。\n历史书上常写的政治腐败，民不聊生，在水浒里就是林娘子被逼上吊，武松告状无门，三阮打不到鱼，及石秀做生意“消折了本钱”。三国放眼是天下大事，水浒着重个人经历，一个鸟瞰，一个特写。小说归根到底是要写人的，从事转移到了人，是文学的进步。\n蔚然成风的宋代农民起义\n历史上农民起义闹的最严重的，是很多人心心念念的宋朝，从宋代319年的时间里，记载爆发农民起义433次，一年就要爆发1~2次。\n元朝人编的宋史是又臭又长，毕竟蒙古人没有写书的习惯，所以宋史内容大多就是把宋朝官方文件换个封皮直接拿来主义，这也使得相对客观。不过433次农民起义里真正属于大规模的，只有方腊那一次，剩下的都是小打小闹跟明的李自成，清的太平天国不是一个级别。\n维稳和谐社会\n宋史里农民起义规模虽小，但哪怕最小的县城里几个刁民闹事都能写进官方文件里，且写的非常详细，有注水的起义的嫌疑。这就要说起宋朝对待农民起义的态度了，宋朝政府对待民变最直接的态度就是招安，能不动手就不动手，每年为了维持地方的稳定还会专门给地方拨款，用来安抚暴动的乡民。\n不抑兼并的历史根基\n在大多数人的印象里，农民起义能反映一个王朝在特定阶段社会矛盾的严重性，可这个常识在宋朝完全不适用，因为其他王朝基本是新的地主阶级打倒旧的地主阶级，掌权后再一次对全国重新分配土地，因为战争导致了人口下降，所以王朝初年还能政通人和，可宋朝的开国不是建立在重新分配土地基础上，而是旧的军阀将领趁着老领导挂了，欺负人家遗孀才上位，掌权后面临一套已形成利益勾结的官僚班底，毕竟开国皇帝没有把老股东一起送走，导致宋朝刚一建国已经出现一个王朝中期才会有的土地兼并严重的问题。\n怎么办？不抑兼并政策出台了，百姓的土地全被兼并走了，所以宋代开国之初老百姓过得也不咋地，没了土地只能造反了。\n政策性起义\n朝廷的做法是招抚，给这些失去土地活不下去的农民招募到军营去当兵，有点文化又没土地的，则通过不断扩大王朝编制的方式为这帮人解决就业问题，你一看闹事居然会闹成公务员，不想进编制的，朝廷会给你安置费，这样你就能活下去了，那这不蔚然成风？\n政府不管这样乱局？毕竟朝廷的安置费也可以克扣，你懂的。有时候地方只是闹了屁大点的事，地方官就会添油加醋的报给朝廷，朝廷立马拨款，官员先吃一部分安置费，农民挣剩下的那部分，实现灵活就业，大家都有美好未来。到蒙古人南下，大宋生死存亡的时候，全国的政策性起义突然下降了，毕竟朝廷没功夫管了，大家折腾也没意义了。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史","文学"]},{"title":"巨头的医疗软肋","url":"/%E5%B7%A8%E5%A4%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BB%E7%96%97%E8%BD%AF%E8%82%8B.html","content":"\n截止2021年，一个略显“尴尬”的现象是，在辅助诊断用途医学影像AI的三类证审批上，有钱、有人、有资源的BAT颗粒无收。\n\n对于医疗人工智能企业来说，三类证是最重要的入场券。而当前没有三类证的医疗AI公司，犹如怀有一身教学绝技，但没有在校内教学资格的老师。纵使本事不小，也上不了台面，更赚不了钱。\n\n新冠之前，是中国互联网狂飙突进的十几年，改造重塑了不少行业，也有些行业始终不接受深刻指导。举例从没立起来一个母婴垂直电商巨头，医院除了挂号，多一点手机App看诊断报告之外，也是互联网化外之地，说明总有些领域有其特有的特质及禀赋，势必不能粗线条等同看之。\n本文主题是&quot;医疗信息化整合-AI化&quot;历史撞墙，管中窥豹瞅瞅曾经失败的过往和各路神通，原文是一个&lt;巨头的医疗软肋5问&gt;系列，很长，摘录少许组织如下：\n供给侧\n矛盾的心理：大三甲生意难做，民营机构故事又不够动人，无法帮立人设。\n铁锤人的狂躁\n互联网一两年时间就要出成果的打法，在医疗行业连水花都打不出来，对一个巨头内部团队来说，按时间来兑现成果，是很残酷的一件事。\n投入产出\nB端软件要看人均投入和产出，一般B端软件传统人均投入30w，人均产出40-50w。但现在B端公司，招了互联网人员，算法人员，人均投入50w-60w，但人均产出都不能double，行业级软件不会因为产研投入贵，就有强溢价权。\n\n医疗AI的商业化充满了定制化，人力成本高企的情况下，盈利非常困难。\n\n模式碰墙\n交付轻的医疗信息化软件商业模式不成立，没有一家企业在这个领域靠卖工具上市，客单价高，交付重的产品（如大数据）才是好底牌。远程问诊已交学费，基本全挂，奇点未到。移动支付甚至还倒贴一些成本（来自帮接口开发）。\n医疗行业重渠道，重生态，重用户习惯，科室主任的个人主观因素，对医疗AI有决定性的生杀大权。应当从某一刻开始，从研发主导切换成合规主导。【大厂赛马机制及人员高流动，让信息科主任需要与不断更换的团队进行磨合】\n创业的文化冲突\n任何创业领域都是帮派，文化冲突大于业务冲突。消费互联网可以没有文化，靠业务驱动，团队不需要特别强的文化共识，只要业务告诉增长，也能往前走。可中国商业模式创新已偏红利尾声。\n文化冲突其实非常难办，比如说医学背景往往就是体系内的人、技术背景往往是互联网人、产品有可能是B端HIT（医疗信息化，民营背景）、商务又是药械外企背景的。他们彼此吃饭的口味都说不到一起去。\n利益冲撞\n医疗行业的山头，利益群复杂程度要比教育体系更多，比如运营商就绕不开。运营商内部有KA，部分与医院合作一签就是三五年，强在本地服务网络，BAT就只能通过一个核心来辐射区域业务，人力体量与运营商没法比，与客户的日常沟通也没运营商多，慢慢出现一种现象，承接城市级的云，将医疗作为其中一个部分，间接获得一部分数据，核心还在运营商管控下的城市级云中。\n需求侧\n云，伪需求\n有些企业更关注云服务中的弹性元素，如电商，但还有一些相对静态的企业，对云服务的使用需求较为稳定，维持核心业务系统稳定，高效，数据安全和可用性更加重要（医院就属于这后一批）\n\n极少有高并发，一般不需要大算力，即便是医院规不断增大，医院信息中心进行有序的扩容也能满足要求，对云的需求甚至只是网站托管。\n\n云服务出现故障，大公司部门林立，沟通流程很长，医院等不起，除了医疗事故谁来负责？数据上云之后，医院心理上就成为被动的一方，感觉被人拿住了七寸，上云之后，云厂商就从水厂电厂，变成了水老虎，电老虎。\n上云之后很多开销，是花在传输线路上，共享式带宽，上传和下载速度不对等，仓促上云，很多项目细节没协调好就仓促上马，效果不佳结果易不欢而散（如单体架构换微服务没改造充分）\n定制化\nIBM Watson与德州大学医院做的私有化方案时，发现与HIS深度整合的构想实现难度极高，很多院内数据完全不可用，互联互通困难。\n瞄向重做一套全新的HIS系统的方向，重做HIS那也不是一点点成本能包住的。\n\n整个合作关系中，强势方还是甲方医院，作为吞金兽的院方，原来的HIS系统碎片化，本就是各院方刻意的成果。重做，除非来自上方的力量压力，否则是不可能的。\n\n各路角儿\n三甲\n医院上云的核心顾虑在于数据安全，要数据安全，一个有效措施就是管控数据流动。上云对管控数据流动带来很大挑战，就算加了堡垒机日志审计，但终究失去了对数据的管控；拉了专线面对链路故障，灾害协作时间也是不太可控。\n三甲医院必须要满足等保体系要求，机房面积，空调，UPS等，很多硬性规定，一开始就注定三甲医院会被“困在”机房里。从三甲医院信息中心主任来看，面向患者端的业务（移动支付，挂号等）可考虑上云，面向院内业务的上云动力不强。\n民营\n民营企业处境则完全不同，很乐意有上云需求，还爱数字营销。\n医生\n利益无法忽视，只要治疗方案没对患者造成严重后果，医生就很难被挑战治疗的合理性。一些医生和药企有利益关联，医生的治疗理念难推翻，哪怕AI-watson说自己只是增强智能，不是人工智能（虽然翻译过来都叫AI），不仅是原来的IBM的watson，和现今的AI，没结构，只能说是见过很多数据，概率的结果，在临床上会有意义困境\n\n结构是两个事物之间的联系，没推理就没有智能，没结构就没推理\n\n对于AI，医生持接纳、观望、鄙视三种心态\n\n顶级医生在学术研究和临床实践上，放眼国际都有话语权，会“屈尊”接受AI指导？各路大佬一点不会给科技巨头好脸色\n能力弱的医生是另一种害怕被替代的心理，行动上必是碰到负面必放大转发\n\n用户\n中国患者更愿意为手术和药品买单，认为出方案应是免费的。中国的医院更在意收入和患者数量，不太愿意提升治疗规范性，这都导致原类似watson这种AI产品找合适的付费方产生困难。\n结语\n现在AI技术重新爆发上路，在诊病方面必会有长足进步，挑战在于高质量数据，希望早日攻下这块难啃的骨头，或许寄希望先从国外突破更现实点。\n参考\n1.雷锋网,巨头的医疗软肋-五问 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"带蛤蟆先生看心理医生","url":"/%E5%B8%A6%E8%9B%A4%E8%9F%86%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%E7%9C%8B%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%8C%BB%E7%94%9F.html","content":"\n必须完成的事情，唯有靠自己才能完成，这是长大成人的蜕变!\n\n标题党简述：蛤蟆先生原本是大家眼中的开心果，如今变得郁郁寡欢，点解？看看这本智慧温暖的小书\n\n儿童自我状态\n\n行为和感受都像一个孩子，这不同于幼稚，而是像孩子一样。\n\n在心理咨询过程中最打动蛤蟆的一点是：他能得到全身心的关注，这辈子还没有人对他全神贯注过。以前他老说：你明白我说的吗？或者 我说清楚了吗？ 这些习惯用语，其实是他为自己表达不清的胡扯道歉用的。\n萌生\n儿童自我状态是由我们童年残留的遗迹搭建而成。刚出生时，我们只具备几种最基本的情感。幼年时，这些基本情感演变成更微妙复杂的行为模式，这些行为模式成为自我的核心，定义了我们一生的行为。\n某些特定的情形和场景会激发我们的基本行为模式，让我们自动做出反应，所以我们会和小时候一样去行动和感受。\n打个比喻，某些基本情感是与生俱来的，就好像红黄蓝三原色，所有婴儿都类似，当我们作为个体发展时，情绪和反应都变得越来越个人化，就好像几种原色混合在一起就变出各种微妙的色调和色差来。\n如果我们看到有人非常深情，或者发怒，悲伤和害怕，就能说这人正处在自然型儿童的状态里，与实际年龄并没有关系，只是愤怒更加复杂。\n\n大多数父母会尽最大的努力来养育孩子，可是，父母也是人，不可避免地把他们的观念和行为传递给后代。婴儿和小孩没法坐定下来计划怎样应对父母的行为。最早期的经历塑造了人格的雏形，我们无法否认也无法忘记它们。想象在一个很小的星球只住着三个人，你和其它两个人。那两个人的身高比你高一倍还多，所有事情你都得完全依赖他们，他们通常对你很好，你也用爱来回应他们。但有些时候，他们会对你生气，这让你感到害怕和不快，他们是那么高大有力，所以你感到很无助，我们学着调整自己的行为来适应这个特定的情形。\n我们都会因为某些词或某些场景触发童年的感受。当你吞下怒火，却化成了内疚。若是父母严厉挑剔，这个孩子就必须学习如何应对他们，自然行为调整为最能适应现状的行为，由自然型儿童（基本情感）进入到适应型儿童模式。\n\n顺从行为可能导致有些人学会了把依赖当成生活方式。\n\n父母自我状态\n处于父母自我状态，表现得正如自己的父母。\n困惑是学习过程的第一阶段，这说明固有知识的局限开始被打破，你要直面新的信息，挑战你现有的观念和行为模式。产生的焦虑是让你改变的动力，可能也会开启你的创造力。\n没有一种批判比自我批判更强烈，也没有一个法官比我们自己更严厉。\n你能停止自我批判吗？你能对自己好一些吗？也许最重要的问题是，你能开始爱自己吗？\n成人自我状态\n只有在成人自我状态里，才能学到关于自我的新知识。儿童状态时，你会体验到童年的感受，好的坏的都有。再现过去的情形，再次体验过去的事情，学不到任何新的东西。\n处在父母自我状态呢？当你处在父母状态时，你不是在挑剔就是在教育别人，用言行重复从父母那里学来的观念和价值观。为了让别人接受你的观念和价值观，这种确信无疑的状态，没法给新知识和新理念留出一席之地。\n没人能强迫别人进入他们的成人状态，只能鼓励他们。\n你还要为自己的不快乐责怪别人多久？\n复杂的愤怒\n愤怒是我们行为的必要组成部分，不可能完全压抑下去，想象一个煤气罐开始发烫，压力越来越大，有爆炸的危险，怎样可以迅速减压？\n第一件事就是尽可能把阀门开到最大，让气体以最大强度喷射出来。这是部分人应对愤怒的方式，瞄准一个选定的目标释放愤怒，然后再恢复常态。\n如果更小心一点的话，就慢慢打开阀门，让气体在一段时间里慢慢渗漏出来。这是一部分人学到的，不带攻击性地发火，用缓和的方式释放愤怒。\n撒泼正是表达愤怒的一种幼稚的方式，孩子非常愤怒同时又被要求说不行，你不能这样，无助。\n怄气也是发怒的一种方式，怄气的人总是绷着脸，阴沉沉的样子，安静得很反常。适应性儿童的所有行为中，怄气是最能说明怎样用时间来稀释愤怒的例子。成年人或许会因输掉一场权力斗争而生闷气，也是同样道理。怄气是输家再对强大的赢家做出反应。逐步少量降压来降低愤怒的强度。\n儿童如何释放愤怒\n从强到弱依次是：\n叛逆 -》撒泼 -》怄气 -》任性 -》郁闷 -》拖延 -》厌烦 -》退缩\n所有这些行为策略实际上都是从我们童年发展而来的防御机制，用来保护我们免于受到危害。当成年人怄气，撒泼，郁闷或者厌烦的时候，我们可以想想是在无意识或无法控制地重演童年的行为模式。其实成年人撒泼怄气是件蛮好笑的事情，这类行为告诉别人，这人是个失败者。\n人生坐标与心理游戏\n把生活比作舞台并不新鲜，或许他有自己专属的“人生剧本”，一有机会就会出演，这个想法挺新奇。也许还有另一种活法，无须跟着预先设定的剧本走，甚至可以没有剧本，或者说，可以即兴发挥。\nPLOM\n这是四个英文单词的缩写，意思是“可怜缩小的我呀”。当你扮演这个模式时，这个游戏你每局都赢了，也可以说输了，这取决于你自己的看法。你偷偷地或无意识地配合对方，来给自己制造不快，这就是在玩心理游戏。\n越是能帮助你深入自我的概念，也越容易引发激烈的对抗\n我们看到的自己，并不一定是我们喜欢的样子。从当下的你，变成你想成为的自己，必定要经历行为和态度的转变，需要付出艰辛的努力，需要勇气和决心。\n想要理解你的现在，就必须回顾你的过去，回顾你生命最早期的阶段，从出生到大约4，5岁的时候，发生的一切都对你影响重大。\n你的内在，包含着情绪和情感的心理世界，是通过你早年的经历而形成的。\n愤怒能非常有效地抵御抑郁，愤怒的人从不觉得内疚，因为他们总在怪罪别人，自卫的方式，是把自己内在的恐惧对外投射到别人身上。\n我好，你也好，其实是一种发自内心信念的行为。人本主义的信条：信自己，新他人，而不一定非要信神或超自然。\n情商\n情商和理解别人有关，一个高情商的人能辨识他人的感受，这种技能称为“共情”，情感智力中最大的技能是通过理解和回应对方的情感，与他人建立良好的关系。\n\n老师不同于咨询师的一个地方是：老师用讲解模式，而咨询师用倾听模式\n\n情感智力能让你在自我成长和完善的路上走得更远，因为它将带你从独立的个体走向共生的关系。共生性可以让你在社交和工作上与别人有效联结，协同合作。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理","亲子"]},{"title":"常用LaTeX符号","url":"/%E5%B8%B8%E7%94%A8LaTeX%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7.html","content":"\n常用符号\n\n\n\n类型\n命令\n显示效果\n说明\n\n\n\n\n加减乘除等大小\n+、-、*、/、=、&gt;、&lt;\n$±*/=&gt;&lt;$\n直接输入\n\n\n绝对值\n\\lvert| \\rvert\n$\\lvert x \\rvert$\n\\left| 兼容性不好\n\n\n不等于\n\\not= 或 \\ne\n$a\\ne b$\n\n\n\n约等于\n\\approx\n$a\\approx b$\n\n\n\n恒等于\n\\equiv\n$a\\equiv b$\n\n\n\n加减\n\\pm\n$a\\pm{b}$\n\n\n\n分式\n\\frac{a}{b}\n$\\frac{a}{b}$\n\n\n\n连分式\n\\cfrac\n$\\cfrac{1}{2+\\cfrac{3}{4+\\cfrac{5}{6+\\cdots}}}$\n\n\n\n点乘\n\\cdot\n$a\\cdot b$\n\n\n\n横三点、竖三点、斜三点\n\\cdots、\\vdots、\\ddots\n$\\cdots$、$\\vdots$、$\\ddots$\n\n\n\n除法斜线\n\\div\n$\\div$\n\n\n\n叉乘\n\\times\n$a\\times b$\n\n\n\n度数符号\n^\\circ\n$360^\\circ$\n是上标和点的组合运用\n\n\n异或\n\\oplus\n$a\\oplus b$\n\n\n\n与\n\\And\n$\\And$\n\n\n\n无穷\n\\infty\n$\\infty$\n\n\n\n角、实测角\n\\angle、\\measuredangle\n$\\angle$ $\\measuredangle$\n\n\n\n对号\n\\checkmark\n$\\checkmark$\n有很多形态，这个好记+够用\n\n\n并集\n\\cup\n$A\\cup B$\n\n\n\n交集\n\\cap\n$A\\cap{B}$\n\n\n\n属于\n\\in\n$a\\in A$\n\n\n\n不属于\n\\notin\n$a\\notin A$\n\n\n\n不小于\n\\not&lt;\n$a\\not&lt; b$\n\n\n\n子集\n\\subseteq\n$A\\subseteq B$\n\n\n\n大于等于\n\\ge\n$a\\ge b$\n\n\n\n小于等于\n\\le\n$a\\le b$\n\n\n\n正弦/反正弦\n\\sin 、\\arcsin\n$\\sin{x}$ 、$\\arcsin x$\n\n\n\n余弦\n\\cos\n$\\cos x$\n\n\n\n正切、余切\n\\tan、\\cot\n$\\tan x$、 $\\cot x$\n\n\n\n最小值、最大值\n\\min、\\max\n$\\min x$、$\\max x$\n\n\n\n右箭头\n\\rightarrow或\\to\n$\\to$\n\n\n\n左箭头、双向箭头，推导箭头，长箭头\n\\leftarrow \\leftrightarrow \\Rightarrow \\longrightarrow\n$\\leftarrow$ $\\leftrightarrow$ $\\Rightarrow$ $\\longrightarrow$\n\n\n\n上确界、下确界\n\\sup、\\inf\n$\\sup M$、$\\inf M$\n\n\n\n上下标\nx^{y}、x_y\n$x^{y}$ $x_y$\n\n\n\n向量\n\\vec\n$\\vec{x}$\n长式子展示居中太短\n\n\n长剪头向量\n\\overrightarrow\n$\\overrightarrow{a + b}$\n\n\n\n上划线、下划线\n\\overline、\\underline\n$\\overline{abc}$、$\\underline{abc}$\n\n\n\n导数\n^\\prime 或 ’\n$x^\\prime$或$x’$\n\n\n\n求和\n\\sum_{i=1}^n\n$\\sum_{i=1}^n$\n\n\n\n积分\n\\int_a^b\n$\\int_a^b$\n\n\n\n极限\n\\lim_{x \\to \\infty}\n$\\lim_{x \\to \\infty}$\n\n\n\n组合数\nC_n^k\n$C_{n}^{k}$\n\n\n\n指数对数\n\\sqrt、\\sqrt[3]、\\log、\\ln\n$\\sqrt{x}$$、\\sqrt[3]{x}$、$\\log{x}$、$\\ln{x}$\n\n\n\n上括号、下括号\n\\overbrace、\\underbrace\n$\\overbrace{1+2+\\cdots+100}^{100\\text{个数}}$$\\underbrace{1+2+\\cdots+100}$\n\n\n\n存在\n\\exists\n$\\exists$\n\n\n\n任何\n\\forall\n$\\forall$\n\n\n\n\n拼音四调\n\n\n\n方法一\n数学环境-更简洁\n\n\n\n\n\n一声（阴平）\n\\bar\n$\\bar{a}$\n\n\n二声（阳平）\n\\acute\n$\\acute{a}$\n\n\n三声（上声）\n\\check\n$\\check{a}$\n\n\n四声（去声）\n\\grave\n$\\grave{i}$\n\n\n\n\n\n\n方法二\n普通文本环境\n在此 blog 上不生效\n\n\n\n\n一声（阴平）\n\\text{\\=a}\n$\\text{=a}$\n\n\n二声（阳平）\n\\text{\\'a}\n$\\text{'a}$\n\n\n三声（上声）\n\\text{\\va}\n$\\text{\\v{a}}$\n\n\n四声（去声）\n\\text{\\`i}\n$\\text{`i}$\n\n\n\n空格与换行\n\n\n\nblog 上\n只有 \\quad和\\qquad正常\n换行因转义问题展示异常\n\n\n\n\n窄空格，$\\frac{1}{6}M$的宽度\n\\,\n$a\\,b$\n\n\n中等空格\n\\:\n$a:{b}$\n\n\n大空格\n\\;\n$a\\;b$\n\n\n字母 M 宽度空格\n\\quad\n$a\\quad{b}$\n\n\n两个 M 宽度空格\n\\qquad\n$a\\qquad{b}$\n\n\n缩进一个窄空格\n\\!\n$a!{b}$\n\n\n换行\n两个\\\n$\\A$\n\n\n\n字体\n\n\n\n还能控制字体和颜色\n有点意思\n但#rgb在此 blog 中不行，#导致错误，单词颜色可以\n\n\n\n\n黑板报粗体-只对大写字母生效\n\\mathbb\n$\\mathbb{FONT}$\n\n\n粗体\n\\mathbf\n$\\mathbf{ABC}$\n\n\n罗马花体\n\\mathscr\n$\\mathscr{ABC}$\n\n\n罗马正体\n\\mathrm\n$\\mathrm{ABC}$\n\n\n哥特体-德文尖角体\n\\mathfrak\n$\\mathfrak{ABC}$\n\n\n意大利体-斜体\n\\mathit\n$\\mathit{ABC}$\n\n\n无衬线体\n\\mathsf\n$\\mathsf{ABC}$\n\n\n打字机体\n\\mathtt\n$\\mathtt{ABC}$\n\n\n手写体-美术字\n\\mathcal\n$\\mathcal{ABC}$\n\n\n颜色\n\\color{rgb}\n$\\color{yellow}{ABC}$\n\n\n\n方程，公式\n\n因 Blog 系统的 bug，两个\\换行被迫变成 4个 \\\n\n无编号多公式\n$$\n\\begin{align*}\nE = mc^2 \\\\\ne^{i\\pi} + 1 = 0\n\\end{align*}\n$$\n方程组\n$$\n\\begin{cases}\nx + y - z = 0 \\\\\n2x - y + z = 2 \\\\\nx + y + 2z = 4\n\\end{cases}\n$$\n矩阵行列式\n\n矩阵中 &amp; 分隔元素，\\\\ 进行换\n\n行列式\n$$\n\\begin{vmatrix}\na_{11} &amp; a_{12} &amp; \\cdots &amp; a_{1n} \\\\\na_{21} &amp; a_{21} &amp; \\cdots &amp; a_{2n} \\\\\n\\vdots &amp; \\vdots &amp; \\ddots &amp; \\vdots \\\\\na_{n1} &amp; a_{n2} &amp; \\cdots &amp; a_{nn}\n\\end{vmatrix}\n$$\n小括号矩阵\n$$\n\\begin{pmatrix}\na_{11} &amp; a_{12} &amp; a_{13} \\\\\na_{21} &amp; a_{22} &amp; a_{23} \\\\\na_{31} &amp; a_{32} &amp; a_{33}\n\\end{pmatrix}\n$$\n含值方框的方括号矩阵\n$$\n\\begin{bmatrix}\n\\boxed{-1} &amp; 3 &amp; 0 &amp; 2 \\\\\n0 &amp; \\boxed{1} &amp; 3 &amp; 1 \\\\\n0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \\boxed{2} \\\\\n0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0\n\\end{bmatrix}\\\n$$\n技术背景\n$\\LaTeX$ 是一种基于 $\\TeX$ 的专业排版系统，适合学术论文、技术报告、包含复杂数学公式的文档，核心思想是内容与格式分离，用户只专注于文档内容和结构，排版细节由 $\\LaTeX$ 自动处理。它由计算机科学家 Leslie Lamport 在 1980 年代开发，旨在简化 $\\TeX$ 的使用（提供了更高层的文档结构，如章节，参考文献，降低了使用门槛）。\n$\\TeX$是底层的排版引擎，提供了强大的排版功能和灵活性。$\\LaTeX$是$\\TeX$的一种格式，是建立在$\\TeX$基础上的宏语言。每一个$\\LaTeX$命令实际上都会转换成几个甚至上百个$\\TeX$命令。普通用户无需了解这些复杂的转换过程，就像使用编译好的函数库和模板一样，$\\LaTeX$ 通过定义许多命令和模板，使用户可快速得到漂亮的排版结果\n\n$\\TeX$排版系统是 Donald E. Kunth于 1977 年在校对其著作《计算机程序设计艺术》时，发现出版社使用的计算机排版系统（取代活字印刷）生成的数学公式质量严重下降，排版粗糙且不美观。作为一个注重细节的作者，无法接受这种低质量的结果，遂用 10 年时间开发完善了一个能实现专业级印刷质量的排版系统$\\TeX$。\n尽管现代排版工具众多，$\\TeX$ 仍然因其严谨性和可重复性，在学术论文等需精确排版的场景广泛使用。\n\n参考\n1.博客园 Latex 公式速查 ↩2.CSDN Latex数学公式符号大全（超详细） ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"平均预期寿命理解","url":"/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD.html","content":"\n根据国家卫健委于8月29日发布的《2023年我国卫生健康事业发展统计公报》，2023年我国居民人均预期寿命达到78.6岁。而根据七普数据，2020年我国居民人均预期寿命为77.93岁，其中男性为75.37岁，女性为80.88岁。\n人均预期寿命又称为平均预期寿命，是指按照当前的分年龄组死亡率水平下，活到某一年龄x岁以后，平均还能继续生存的年数。如果不特别说明，平均预期寿命是指0岁人口的平均预期寿命。\n\n换句话简单说，指的是预期 2023 年出生的人口他们的寿命，是78.6 岁，不是已经长大的那批人。\n\n平均预期寿命（指0岁预期寿命）并不是预测现在出生的人将来能活到多少岁，而是说，假设有一批人出生后每一年都按照当年的分年龄组死亡概率度过一生，那么这批人预期能够活多少岁。\n\n平均预期寿命与总和生育率这两个概念有相似之处，都是采用假设一代人法。总和生育率是假设有一批刚进入育龄期的妇女，她们在整个育龄期内（一般指15-49岁）按照某一年的各个分年龄组生育率来生育，当她们度过育龄期后（即过了49岁之后），平均每个妇女在育龄期所生育的孩子数。\n平均预期寿命的数据通常是从生命表中计算得来的。按照年龄组组距的不同，生命表分为完全生命表和简略生命表。完全生命表是一岁一组，简略生命表通常是五岁一组。按照性别的不同，生命表分为男性生命表、女性生命表、男女平均生命表。\n以 2023 年中国人口生命表来解读\n下表是2023年中国人口完全生命表（男女平均）的详细数据，数据来源是联合国于今年7月发布的《世界人口展望2024版》\n\n第一列是年龄 x，第二列是尚存人数 I(x)，第三列是死亡人数 d(x)，第四列是死亡概率 q(x)\n\n生命表中，通常假定l（0）=100000（即10万人）\n$l（x）- d（x）= l（x+1）$ ：当年尚存人数 - 当年死亡人数 = 来年尚存人数\n$q（x）= d（x）/ l（x）$：死亡概率=当年死亡人数/当年尚存人数\n\n第五列是生存年人数 L(x)，是把人数和存活时间联系起来计算的一个复合指标，例如，1个人活了2年，就是2人年；2个人各活了1年，也是2人年\n\n$L（x）=[l（x）+ l（x+1）]/2$ ： 生存年人数 = (当年尚存人数 + 来年尚存人数)/2\n\n第六列是生存人年数累计T（x），是对生存人年数L（x）的累计, T（x）是从高年龄组向低年龄组进行累计，上表中最高年龄组为100岁，所以T（100）= L（100）=723人\n\n$T（x）= L（x）+ L（x+1）+…+ L（100）$ ：生存人年数累计 = 当年生存年人数 +…+ 100岁生存年人数\n$T（x+1）= T（x）- L（x）$：来年生存人年数累计 = 当年生存人年数累计 - 当年生存年人数\n故 $T（x）= T（x+1）+L（x）$\n\n第七列是预期寿命e（x），通常说的平均预期寿命是指0岁预期寿命，60 岁的预期寿命则是e（60）。 x岁人口的预期寿命并不等于0岁预期寿命减去x岁。例如，60岁人口的预期寿命并不等于（77.95-60）岁，而是等于e（60）= T（60）/ l（60）= 1946794/ 90881≈21.42岁，意思是说，按照上述生命表的分年龄死亡概率，活到60岁的人，平均来说，还有21.42年的余寿，活到 70 岁的人，则平均还有13.77年余寿\n\n $e（x）= T（x）/ l（x）$ ： 预期寿命 = 生存人年数累计 / 当年尚存人数\n0岁预期寿命e（0）= T（0）/ l（0）=7795292/100000≈77.95岁\n50岁预期寿命e（50）= T（50）/ l（50）= 2882091/ 95556≈30.16岁\n\n上表的最高年龄组是100岁，并不是说最高寿命是100岁。从上表来看，100岁人口的预期寿命是1.69岁，也就是说，能够活到100岁的人，平均来说，还有1.69年的余寿。当然这只是平均数，实际上，有些人可能到101岁就去世了，有些人可能活到105岁才去世。\n平均预期寿命仅与各个分年龄组的死亡概率有直接关系，但与人口的年龄结构无直接关系。我们可以通过预期寿命，衡量当下健康水平，指导医保改革。你若想问平均死亡年龄，官方会说一堆的说辞，还可能会说重要的不是知道，而是改善，它并不是一个科学的统计指标，无法精确评估社会的健康状况，嘿嘿。\n平均死亡年龄（是当年所有死者年龄的平均值）则跟人口结构有关，比如说老龄化的社会平均死亡年龄则高。虽然官方不公布，但了解这个数字的方式也很多，例如养老金『计发月数』，还有火葬场的统计数据。火葬场数据看似全面，但忽略了死亡原因和生前的健康状况，无法真实代表死亡年龄分布。\n生存年龄平均值/中位数\n全国殡仪馆火化平均年龄，只有 67 岁。80%的人在 80 岁前去世。\n\n男性平均火化年龄 63 岁，中位数是67.7 岁（可戏称上午退休，下午火化。也意味着约有半数的男人没有活到退休年龄）\n女性不到 68 岁，中位数 79.7 岁\n\n谁也不知道谁被平均，珍惜当下。\n参考\n1.腾讯网 平均预期寿命不是平均死亡年龄 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"开源许可证","url":"/%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81.html","content":"\n2023年开源软件的下载使用达到了4万亿次，以空前的力量推动软件生态的发展与创新。这里面下载最突出的领域语言是JavaScript，能占到1.5万亿\n开宗明义\n开源软件\n既继承了“自由”软件所提倡的知识共享理念，同时又允许人们以专利的形式从知识产品中谋取利益，从而保护人们生产、创造知识产品的积极性。开源软件使用者必须按照License的规定履行相应的开源义务。例如使用声明义务：在对外分发产品时，需附上声明文档，注明产品所使用的开源软件名称、版权、License内容等信息。还有些有代码开源义务。\n误区\n把代码放网上算不算开源软件\n是否开源取决于源代码发布的授权协议\n不指定任何开源许可证\n\n\n没有明确注明所适用的开源许可证，则应用项目作者司法管辖区的“默认”版权。\n\n\n没有明确的许可证，你，项目的作者，事实上并未放弃法律授予的任何权利。（即：一般作品中没声明协议的默认为copyright的，也就是版权保留）\n\n\n许可证大分类\n\n\n许可证大分类，强度由高到低\n\n\n\n\n宽松式（permissive）许可证\n弱Copyleft（许可复制权，著作权保留） 许可证「弱著作权」\n强Copyleft（许可复制权，著作权保留） 许可证「强著作权」\n\n\n\n\nBSD (Berkeley Software Distribution)MITApache 2\nLesser GPL (LGPL) Mozilla Public License (MPL) Eclipse Public License (EPL) Common Development and Distribution License (CDDL)\nSSPL Affero GPL (AGPL) GPL\n\n\n\n要求对软件的修改，重新分发必须按获得该软件的许可证进行开源，但合并这些软件代码的大型产品可以称为私有作品。\n要求对软件的修改和扩展，必须按照该软件许可证进行开源，且不得违背原作品的限制条款\n\n\n\n可以理解为仅要求修改的部分开源，不『传染』整个项目\nSSPL要求托管 MongoDB实例的云计算公司要么获取商业许可证，要么向社区开源其服务代码，包括支持这个软件使用的后台管理平台软件。相比之下，原来使用的 AGPLv3 只声明要将修改的代码回馈社区，没有涉及到托管即分发，已经跨越了OSI 定义的开源的概念，迈入了&quot;源代码可用&quot;的范畴\n\n\n\n\nCopyright: 复制权，印刷术发明催生的印刷出版之权。用户只有使用权，没有其它如复制，重新修改发布的权利。\nCopyleft：著作权。版权归原作者所有，其它权利可自由决定与别人分享自己的作品。1984年发表《GNU宣言》，抨击封闭源码行为，也创造了该词。还分强著作权和弱著作权。\n\n特性：意味着如果你修改软件并重新发布，必须将修改后的代码以原许可证方式发布，保证了代码的开放性和开源性。\n\n\n\n\n代表性开源协议的价值主张\n\n\n\n价值主张\n协议\n权利义务\n\n\n\n\n我只想安心的写代码,其他随别人怎么搞\nMIT\n署名作者，其它随意（别删了我的名字）允许他人修改源代码后再闭源，不用对修改过的文件做说明，且二次开发的软件可以使用原作者的名字做营销\n\n\n同MIT，但需尊重代码作者的著作权\nBSD\nBSD 3-Clause $\\approx$ MIT + 禁止用作者名背书（但可以提及其贡献）\n\n\n我保留专利，但你们可以随便用\nApache\n授权使用者免费使用个人专利，额外的简易专利授权，这点是与MIT的区别点使用者必须放置协议说明使用者需对修改部分声明禁止用作者的名号进行商业广告\n\n\n我希望代码生根发芽遍地开花\nGPL\n使用者需遵循相同的协议进行开源GPL/LGPL都保障原作者的知识产权，避免有人利用开源代码复制并开发类似的产品\n\n\n\n和MIT有些类似的BSD同样是鼓励代码重用，但需尊重代码作者的著作权\n软件供应链脱钩断链风险\n伴随国际形势变迁，越来越多组织声明将遵循美国出口管制法律的约束，且蔓延到了开源领域，当时两大引爆事件：\n\n全球最大开源软件基金会ASF（Apache 软件基金会）的管理办法中明确说明其遵循美国出口法律，所以它旗下所有项目亦受到美国出口法律的管制。而ASF旗下开源项目名单中有很多耳熟能详的项目：如Kafka，Solr，Hadoop，Spark等\n全球最大源码托管平台GitHub表示：GitHub.com，GitHub Enterprise Server及你上传到任一产品的信息可能受美国出口管制法律的约束，包括美国出口管理条例（EAR），且实际已对古巴与朝鲜等地实施限制\n\n消息一出，国内外开源界议论纷纷，关于开源生态如何自立，做到在无法与国际接轨的情况下能健康发展的措施也被提上议程。\n华为在加快国产开源操作系统鸿蒙的开发，看到国内第一个开源软件基金会从紧急筹备到建立，也看到第一个国产开源协议木兰的诞生。\n正本清源\n自由软件中分离出了开源概念\n\n自由软件(Free Software)：此处的free强调的是自由，而不是价格上的免费。支持自由软件开发的非盈利组织为FSF(Free Software Foundation)。自由软件是指授权用户自由共享，学习和修改权利的软件，名称在上世纪80年代创造。你可以对此类软件做任何事情，甚至改进从中获利。\n免费软件(Freeware): 与开源和自由软件不同，免费软件给最终用户提供了最小自由度。虽可被免费使用，但源码可能并不对外公开。\n\n自由软件是一个比开源软件更严格的概念，因此所有自由软件都是开放源代码的，但不是所有的开源软件都能被称为“自由”。\n\nMIT，GPLv2，Apache v2，BSD都算是自由软件的许可证类型。\n\n“开放源代码软件运动”是一个主要由程序工程师及其它电脑用户参与的声势浩大的运动。它是自由软件运动的一个分支，但两者差别并不明显。一般而言，自由软件运动是基于政治及哲学思想（有时被称为所谓黑客文化）的理想主义运动，而开放源代码运动则主要注重程序本身的质量提升。为了避免这些对于「自由」的探讨，而只专注于技术，在自己的领域做得更好，有人把「开源」这个概念分离了出来。\n许可证\n软件协议可分为开源和商业\n\n商业协议，或者叫法律声明，许可协议，每个软件会有自己的一套行文，由软件作者或专门律师撰写，因涉及到以后侵权打官司这种事情，行文史非常严谨而讲究的，读起来很晦涩难懂\n开源协议。开源并不等于免费，不等于没有约束。虽相对商业协议更加简明，但对于很多人来说还是像在看天书一样\n\n大部分人都希望作品能被多数人分享查阅，这样不仅提高自己业界知名度，同时也方便了有需要的人。但代码一旦被贴出来，任何人都可看到并获取，之后发生的事情就无法控制了。所以为了公开分享你的代码，同时又让你对代码保留一定权利，在作品中声明一个许可协议是非常有必要的。\n开源 != 免费\n开源，是指公开源代码，但也并不代表就是免费。有时，开源也可以作为一种商业模式存在。\n\n提供订阅服务 | 捐赠打赏\n高级功能付费\n提供云服务\n生态价值\n获得声誉谁说不是一种商业模式呢\n\n开源的非经济利益\ngantt\n    title 开源的非经济利益认定（基于53份问卷）\n    dateFormat SSS\n    axisFormat %L\n        个人声望: 000, 043\n        产品可见性:000,031\n        建立行业标准:000,017\n        挑战的乐趣:000,038\n        职业发展:000,028\n        扩大用户基础:000,022\n        社区中开发者支持:000,031\n        其它:000,002\n开源流派的理念比喻\n开源组织是共产主义社会，商业公司联盟则是资本主义世界。\n共产主义靠共产国际的会议决议来协作行动，商业公司则凭无数的商务协议组成利益共同体。理论上共产主义更先进，现实中总是输给一盘散沙，各怀鬼胎的资本主义世界。\nApache &amp; GPL是两种加入共产主义社会的方式\n\nGPL是宣布自己国家也共产了，拒绝一切资本主义的东东\nAapache则是自己来参加共产国际大会，分享经验，但是走独立自主的道路\n共产主义天然是国际主义的，终极目标是要看到环球遍是赤旗，而不是希望成员国直接为其贡献GDP\n选择成为Aapache体系的国家，的确消耗一部分优秀党员为其效力，又无法直接计入共产国际的GDP中，因为他们也要为自己国家生存发展考虑，不可能断绝与资本主义的一切来往，但终究是让共产主义理念得以发扬光大了。\n\n衍生作品\nDerivative Work是一个关键法律概念，它决定了许可证『传染性』范围，即修改或组合开源代码后，新作品是否必须遵循原许可证的开源要求。\n衍生作品指基于原作品进行修改/翻译，或与其它作品结合后，整体可被认定为原作品的修订或衍生版本的作品。判断标准：\n\n代码融合程度：是否直接修改、重构或扩展了原开源代码的功能结构\n\n直接修改源代码：对原代码功能，结构、逻辑进行增减或重构。如修复 bug，添加新功能，优化算法等\n\n\n功能依赖性：新作品是否必须依赖原开源代码才能运行核心功能\n\n代码组合（形成新作品）：将原始代码与其它代码（无论开源或专有）组合成一个新项目，如将开源库A嵌入到你的项目B中，形成新系统 C\n静态链接/动态链接：动态链接不同许可证规定不同\n\n\n非代码衍生形式：文档、配置文件、脚本若基于原始作品创作，也可能被视为衍生作品\n\n多个独立程序打包分发，只要未共享内存/直接通信，通常不视为衍生作品。\n如何规避衍生品风险\n\n明确隔离\n\n通过进程间通信（如 Shell 调用）/网络调用开源工具，而非代码级链接\n输出品与工具代码物理分离（如生成 PDF 后独立分发）\n\n\n选择宽松许可证：若需代码级集成，选用 MIT/BSD/Apache等无传染性的许可证工具\n架构设计：如将 GPL 代码封装为独立服务，闭源程序通过 API 交互\n\n开源许可证的市场\n从编程语言看\n从编程语言开源许可证分布进行统计\n\nC/C++ 主要使用MIT，BSD，Apache许可证，GPL/LGPL约占16%，整体使用更严格\nJava主要使用Apache，MIT许可证，GPL/LGPL约占1%，整体使用更宽\n\n\n市占率\npie showData\n    title GitHub上开源许可证使用现状\n    \"MIT\" : 51\n    \"Apache-2.0\" : 15\n    \"GPL-2.0\" : 10\n    \"GPL-3.0\" : 10\n    \"BSD-3-Clause\" : 5\n    \"BSD-2-Clause\" : 2\n    \"Unlicense\" : 1\n    \"AGPL-3.0\" : 1\n    \"CC0-1.0\" : 1\n    \"EPL-1.0\" : 1\n    \"LGPL-2.1\" : 1\n    \"MPL-2.0\" : 1\n    \"ISC\" : 1\n    \"Artistic-2.0\" : 0\n%%{init:{\"pie\":{\"textPosition\":0.9}}}%%\npie showData title 开源项目许可证大类型分布\n    \"宽松型\" : 3886\n    \"弱限制型\" : 114\n    \"限制型\" : 70\n许可证简洁区别示意\n\n对于网络上的图，对LGPL的表达缩略的并不恰当，故不放置在此flowchart图中了。对LGPL感兴趣的可去查阅[5]\n静态链接至LGPL的代码/库，还是有一些衍生品行为要求的\n\n%%{init: {\"flowchart\": {\"defaultRenderer\": \"elk\"}} }%%\ngraph TB\n    A{修改后可闭源?}--是-->B{修改过的文件放置著作权声明}\n    A--否-->C{采用相同许可证?}\n    C--是-->D(GPL许可证)\n    C--否-->E{对修改之处提供说明文档}\n    E--是-->F(Mozilla许可证)\n    B-->|是|H(Apache许可证)\n    B-->|否|I{衍生作品是否可用原作者名作广告?}\n    I-->|是|J(MIT许可证BSD2句版)\n    I-->|否|K(BSD许可证3句版)\n\n\n\n许可证种类\n要在源码里包含原许可证\n允许商业使用\n允许修改再发布\n修改后的源码强制继续开源\n\n\n\n\nBSD\n是\n是（不能用原作者相关信息进行宣传）\n是\n否\n\n\nMIT\n是\n是\n是\n否\n\n\nApache\n是\n是（禁止使用其商标与作者的相关信息进行商业行为）\n是\n否\n\n\nGPL\n是\n是（商用代码要公开）\n是\n只要源码中使用GPL的代码，都要开源\n\n\nLGPL\n是\n是\n是\n若用户只是对LGPL的程序库进行调用而不是包含其源码时，无需开源；反之需要\n\n\nMozilla（MPL）\n是\n是\n是\n含有MPL许可证的代码放在单独文件里，只需开源这个文件。其它新增的文件无需开源\n\n\n\n\n\nMPL：允许重发布，免费修改，但要求修改后的代码版权归软件的发起者。这种授权维护了商业软件的利益，它要求基于这种软件的修改无偿贡献版权给该软件。这样，围绕该软件的所有代码版权都集中于开发发起人手中。但MPL允许修改及无偿使用，对链接也没有要求。\n\n\nEPL：CPL（Common Public License 1.0） 是 IBM 提出的开源协议，主要用于 IBM 或跟 IBM 相关的开源软件/项目中（例如，Eclipse、Open Laszlo 等）。已被 EPL 替代，EPL是一个与CPL相类似的许可证，任何扩展自 Eclipse 源码的代码也必须是开源的\n\n\nCDDL是MPL的扩展协议，它允许公共版权使用，无专利费，并提供专利保护，可集成于商业软件中，允许自行发布许可\n\n\n详细区别和选择对照\n\n许可证概念词汇释义\n\n\n\n商用：用于商业用途，不论使用成果是否对外销售或盈利，只要使用主体为营利组织，因使用行为有助于主体经营，均视为”商用“\n\n公司及员工使用任何开源软件都属于商业使用，如将开源模型用于内部模型训练，不对外推广，但因为公司为盈利组织，此种情形仍属于商业行为\n\n\n\n分发：通过任何媒介向他人提供程序、文档、数据等作品的行为。当今时代最为常见的就是手机App。\n\n传递副本：将作品拷贝提供给他人，可以是物理介质形式（如光盘或U盘）或以电子方式（如电子邮件，文件共享或网站下载）传递\n公开展示：在公共场所或网络上公开展示作品，使他人能获得访问、下载或复制的机会\n提供访问途径：在网络上提供作品的访问途径，使他人可通过远程访问、下载或复制作品\n包含在产品中：将作品捆绑在硬件或软件作品中，出售或分发给他人\n\n\n\n公开来源：分发传播时，需提供该开源软件本身，修改版或包含该组件及其修改版的新软件的源代码（不同协议对于披露范围要求可能存在差异）\n\n\n许可证声明：传播时必须包含授权许可证和版权声明的源文件副本，不需要编译成二进制文件\n\n\n修改记录：必须有文档说明对代码的修改记录\n\n\n商标使用：许可证表明表示不授权商标权，禁止使用开发者的名义或名称进行宣传，或许可证暗含表明不授权商标权\n\n\n质量保证：开发者不对该开源软件质量提供任何保证或承诺\n\n\n免责声明：阐述开发者不对用户使用该开源软件而带来的任何问题负责。\n\n\n\n许可证权利、义务、限制、案例 对照表\n\n\n    \n        \n            类型\n            权利(Permissions)\n            条件-义务(Conditions)\n            限制(Limitations)\n            案例\n        \n    \n    \n        \n          \t许可证归类\n            许可证\n            商用(&radic;)\n            传播分发(&radic;)\n            修改(&radic;)\n            专利使用\n            自用(&radic;)\n            公开源码(&otimes;)\n            许可和版权声明(&radic;)\n            网络即分发(&otimes;)\n            相同许可证(&otimes;)\n            修改记录\n            免责声明(&otimes;)\n            商标使用\n            质量保证(&otimes;)\n            著名案例\n        \n        \n          \tCopyLeft\n            GPLv2.1\n            \n            \n            \n            无声明，未提及\n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            Linux内核、MySQL、Git\n        \n      \n            GPLv3\n            \n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            bash、gzip、wget\n        \n      \n            AGPL\n            \n            \n            \n            无声明，未提及\n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            MongoDB(18.10前)、Tdengine（时序数据库）\n        \n      \n            LGPLv2.1\n            \n            \n            \n            跟随对应GPL版本\n            \n            弱传染\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            mariadb客户端动态库，glib，7-zip\n        \n      \n            Mozilla 2.0-MPL\n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            弱传染\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            Firefox、LibreOffice\n        \n        \n          \tPermissive\n            MIT\n            \n            \n            \n            无声明，未提及\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            Bootstrap、jQuery、Nodejs、Rails\n        \n      \n            Apache\n            \n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            &radic;\n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            Spring、Hadoop、Kylin、Kafka、netty\n        \n      \n            BSD\n            \n            \n            \n            2句版未提及3句版&otimes;4句原始版未提及\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            chromium、Nginx、FreeBSD、Redis、Django\n        \n      \n          \t商业\n            BSL 1.1\n            额外限制\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            mariadb、CockroachDB、Akka\n        \n      \n            FAIR SOURCE LICENSE\n            人数限制\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            GitLab、WIRED、FirstRead\n        \n      \n            Sun Software LICENSE Agreement\n            商用须付费\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            \n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            com.sun.media:jai-codec\n        \n    \n\n典型开源许可证解读\nBSD多版本\nBSD许可证有三种版本：初版的4句版许可证，“修订版”3句版许可证和“简化版”2句版许可证。4句版BSD许可证和3句版增加了对广告，名称重用的更多要求。如果你想保护自己的产品或品牌名称，可以考虑使用这两版许可证。\n\n被许可方不得使用原作者名称或商标来为衍生作品背书（3句版和4句版BSD）\n被许可方必须在提及此项目功能或用途的所有广告材料中致谢软件开发者和伯克利大学（4句版BSD，绑定伯克利大学，反倒不利于许可证走出伯克利，因此才被修订吧），让我们看看原文：All advertising materials mentioning features or use of this software must display the following acknowledgement: This product includes software developed by the University of California, Berkeley and its contributors.\n\n这三种版本都在使用理念上高度接近MIT许可证。可以将2句版BSD许可证 =MIT许可证\nBSD vs MIT\n与MIT类似，但版本太多，条款不够清晰简洁\n不得使用版权所有者的姓名或其贡献者的姓名来推广\nApache\nApache软件基金会起始于1999年，由一群在网上协作为网络服务器打源码补丁的人创建，源码最终被称为Apache Httpd项目。在2004年，开发了成熟的Apache 2.0许可证，成为世界上最受欢迎的开源许可证之一，授予用户使用，修改和分发等权限，且拥有非常明确的专利权，使得开发者能轻松使用和重用代码许可。\nApache软件基金会是一个公共慈善机构，服务于广大公众的最大利益，使命是为公众免费提供软件。使用邮件列表来作为讨论和决策的常规工具，因为其他人要一直往回翻阅去了解整个经过。\n与MIT许可证下前端项目扎堆的情况不同，采用Apache许可证的项目涵盖的前后端，DevOps，大数据处理，深度学习等各种类型的系统，框架和工具。\n虽然有各种类型的许可证，但不得不说MIT和Apache两个许可证加起来，就囊括很大一部分(66%)我们耳熟能详的项目了。\nApache与MIT的区别：\n\n是否要求明确声明修改了哪些部分\n是否明确限制商标使用权，Apache许可证明确限制了商标使用权。例如你在Spring Boot源码基础上做了修改，作为你自己的产品发行，你的产品就不能叫做“Spring Boot”之类的名字了。\n许可证长度是MIT的10倍左右，描述精确的多，当然你也可以说MIT最自由，所以不用啰嗦，这也是MIT许可证流行的一个重要原因。\n\nMPL\nMPL是Netscape的Mozilla小组为其开源软件项目设计的软件许可证，其出现的重要原因是，Netscape公司认为GPL许可证没有很好平衡开发者对源码的需求和他们利用源码获得的利益。相比GPL而言，MPL有如下不同之处：\n\nMPL对“发布”的定义是以“源代码”方式发布的文件，就为借鉴别人的代码用作自己商业软件的开发行为留了一个豁口\nMPL允许将经过MPL许可证获得的源码同自己其它类型的代码混合得到自己的软件程序\n\nCreative Commons 知识共享协议\nCreative Commons (CC) 许可协议并不能说是真正的开源协议，大多被用于设计项目/文档项目上，一个 CC 许可协议具有四个基本部分，这几个部分可以单独起作用，也可以组合起来。下面是这几部分的简介：\n\n署名(BY)：作品必须附有作品的归属，如此厚，作品可被修改，分发，复制和其它用途（相当于只要人们能维护你的名誉，对你的作品怎么使用都行）\n相同方式共享(SA)：可被修改，分发或其它操作，但所有衍生品都要置于CC许可协议下\n非商业用途（NC）：可被修改，分发等，但不能用于商业目的(获得商业优势或金钱回报)\n禁止衍生品（ND）：您不可以分发衍生品，限制了他人参与协作，用于 Pull Request 的 fork 也可以看作一种「分发」。\n\n大多数比较严格的CC协议会声明“署名权，非商业用途，禁止衍生”条款，这意味着你可自由分享这个作品，但不能改变它和对其收费，且必须声明作品的归属。这个许可协议非常有用，它可让你的作品传播出去，但又可对作品的使用保留或完全的控制。\nCC0 1.0许可证，使用该许可证代表作者放弃了关于作品的一切权利。\nGPL族\nGPL全称是GNU General Public License协议，核心是只要在一个软件中使用（类库引用、修改代码即衍生代码）GPL协议的产品，则该软件产品必须也采用GPL协议，即开源。这就是所谓GPL协议的传染性，商业软件或开发者对代码进行集成及作为类库进行二次开发，在进行再发布时需伴随GPL协议。\n但它还有两个广受关注的属性：可修改 &amp; 可盈利\n\n可修改：可自由修改增删功能，或在别的项目中使用部分代码。没任何问题，唯一的要求是，使用了这段代码的项目也必须使用GPL协议\n可盈利：可在分发软件时收费，但必须在收费前，向你的客户提供该软件的GPL许可协议，以便让他们知道，他们可从别的渠道免费获得这份软件，以及你收费的理由。\n\n在GPL下，你通过物理媒介分发软件，必须将源码一起分发，告知用户以发行成本费用提供源码CD是被允许的，CD上给源码链接，放在网站上免费下载源码倒是不行的。\nGPLv3 vs GPLv2\n\nGPLv3对类似TiVo这种硬件（执行DRM的平台）做了要求。在不少软件大牛的眼中，GPLv3是政治化的，所以他们抵触[2]，如linus\nGPLv2和v3是不兼容的，两者在”不能添加任何额外的限制“一条上是冲突的，所以不能合并 两种协议的代码在一起\n\n\nTivo中包含了带有GPL许可证的软件，按照copyleft原则，这些软件应允许用户随意修改使用。Tivo也的确允许用户修改，只是修改后的软件不能直接在原有硬件上运行了。此种做法被称为Tivoization，指通过硬件限制或DRM使用户无法在原有硬件上运行修改过的代码的现象\n\n理念的冲突\nLinux的GPLv2哲学：我们给你源码，你给我你的修改，扯平了 [源码可见并确保持续改进]。\n自由软件基金会认为Tivo的做法在剥夺自由，应该允许用户”刷机“绕开DRM。linus不这么认为：\n\n他认为生产硬件去锁定其中的软件，是硬件提供者的决定，并没有违反软件互哺前进的大前提。当你禁止DRM坏的用途，也意味着好的用途也不被允许。\n如果想要反对DRM，应该是去支持知识共享运动（the creative commons movement）而不是在软件上做政治正确的文章（内容产业本就倾向于垄断，上游的内容垄断才是症结所在）。\n\n分歧导致 开源(open source) 这个词从自由软件中分裂了出去。linus代表的开源阵营并不反对专有软件，其本人自比奥本海默（因成果被用来制造原子弹而深切自责），拒绝涉猎政治。且GPLv3条款自然会限制linux在嵌入式或消费类电子产品的发展，这显然是linus不能接受的\nAGPL\n更严格的GPL，防止钻空子，通过网络与GPL开源项目交互，也需要提供源代码。辩解称socket/http通讯，本质与过程（函数)调用没区别。\n除了AGPL，其它许可证都规定只有在”分发“时，才需要遵守许可证的要求。不分发，则尚不实质约束。简单说，分发就是指将版权作品从一个人转移到另一个人，这意味着，如果你自己使用，不提供给其他人，就没有分发。另外，这里的人也可指法人。当使用方是公司，只在公司内部使用，也暂无版权再转移。\n云服务（SAAS）是否构成”分发“呢？答案是不构成，此种情况不必提供源码。AGPL打击的就是这种钻空子行为，它规定云服务也必须提供源码。\nLGPL\n\n使用LGPL的一般都是库，以API的形式向用户提供某些功能（facility），动静态库都有，且都提供源码\n\nGPL的发明人Stallman，是自由软件的死忠，为何还允许别人用了自己的东西还能闭源？\n他并不喜欢LGPL，但这是争取用户的办法，自由软件库要和其他库竞争。如果其它库允许别人闭源，而他不允许，显然占下风啊。这就是为何对GNU C库使用LGPL的心理动机，毕竟世界上有那么多C函数库。\n对商业应用仍隐含不友好\n\n\n其留了口子，不可约束目的用于调试修改本库的逆向工程动作。\n\n\n静态链接使用时准备提供目标码，虽然未强制（以便库修改后仍能验证集成有效性），也对商业公司来说有些尴尬\n\n\n本质上已隐含了GPL，LGPLv3=GPLv3+补充条款，与GPL不一致的地方以补充部分为准，相当于override了\n\n实操的例子可参考[35]\n\nLGPL与Java\nLGPL 对所有已知编程语言都一样，包括 Java。连接 LGPL 库的应用不一定要按照 LGPL 授权，但要允许新的库版本连接到该应用；并且允许使用反向工程的方法来调试，这不意味着你需要提供源代码或你应用的内部详解，提供目标码即可，但大部分人连目标码也不想提供。\n\n\n当你和应用一起发布库（或者单独发布库）时，你需要包含库的源代码。\n\n\n但是如果你的应用需要用户自己去获取库，那么你就不需要提供库的源代码。\n\n\nJava 程序的典型配置是应用用到的每个库都以一个独立的 JAR（Java Archive）文件来分发。应用使用 Java 的 “import” 机制来访问库中的类。当应用编译之后，系统根据库的签名来创建链接。那么应用一般来说就是LGPL库的一个衍生作品[36]。\n\nIf you distribute a Java application that imports LGPL libraries, it’s easy to comply with the LGPL. Your application’s license needs to allow users to modify the library, and reverse engineer your code to debug these modifications\nBut if your application instead requires users to obtain the library on their own, you don’t need to provide source code for the library\n\n\nJavascript的库调用更像是静态链接，Python 更接近动态链接，Java 也更接近动态链接(类型的加载和链接过程都是在运行的时候进行的，动态加载和动态链接赋予了 Java 应用程序高度的灵活性)，但 Java 库一般喜欢用 &quot;GPL+Classpath 例外&quot;的许可证 2、3（如 GPL-2.0-with-classpath-exception）而非 LGPL[37]\n\n从大型产品角度看，GPL是更好的开源许可证？\n当程序员放弃版权，他可能认为自己做了世界上最无私的行为。\n但这个世界是一个商业利益占主导的世界，大公司可能先免费利用，然后在推出取代的私有产品，你以为自己风险了爱心，实质上变成了为大公司无偿打工。\n\n像Oracle拥有mysql这类事情就是很有风险的事情\n\n从这个角度，GPL是更好的开源许可证，它保证了自由无法被剥夺，也不是一种圈套或陷阱\n举操作系统领域的例子\n\nLinux效率更佳，FreeBSD架构优美但效率低，此为宏内核和混合内核的区别\n\n\n GPL可确保Linux不会成为专有产品，开发者做出的贡献最终会回到社区，Linux可以得到更好的发展。\nFreeBSD的贡献者就常被调侃为Apple公司的无薪员工，Apple在其基础上进行了一些更改，就变成了一个专有，非自有的操作系统，还对内核和其它部分进行了分叉，将其命名为Darwin，这一系统基本就远离了FreeBSD传统，Apple挣的钱也没有流向FreeBSD\n最新的Linux内核基本直接可用在android上\n\n许可证是Linux成功的决定性因素之一，因为它强制你必须回馈，如果你真的想创造更大的东西，如果你想围绕它创建一个社区，BSD/MIT许可证不一定是很好的许可证，会让开发人员觉得大公司在利用他们的工作\n\n PG库在国内就产生了很多版本分叉（国内基于PG的自研数据库，已没办法Merge最新的PG15的代码，和PG差距越来越大，最终决定开源自己的版本，如阿里Polar DB-PG）\n未积极融入社区讨论与回馈\n\n律师的最爱\nGPL的传染性，最具话题性。公开修改后的源码，这就是所谓的强制执行GPL。被告多为大企业，索赔数额巨大，大部分是庭外和解，但让GPL名声多少粘上污点，令人敬而远之。\nSFC（软件自由保护协会）靠强制执行GPL一战成名\n07年代表BusyBox走着向Monsoon Multimedia公司发起GPL侵权诉讼\n\nBusyBox作为GNU CoreUtil的替代品（提供流行的Linux命令，但仅包含这些命令的常用选项，相当于极简主义），能运行于linux、hurd、freebsd等，常用于嵌入式设备，用户大部分是linux用户\n\n对代码作者来说：没有什么比回馈代码更重要的了。然而最终得到相关代码，作者却用了四个字评价“毫无用处”（改动质量看不上）。\n\n从工程角度上，BusyBox不值得，没获得有用的代码，还导致多家公司完全退出Linux开发，用非Linux开发其嵌入式产品，真是抽了一块砖，倒了一堵墙。\n但SFLC（软件自由法律中心）偶尔会收到大额支票，留下大部分用于资助下一次诉讼。\n\n抽了一块砖，倒了一堵墙\nBusyBox的主要维护者曾寄希望于诉讼：“我只是希望人们尊重GPL”，他最后放弃了诉讼，也放弃了BusyBox。投身ToyBox的开发，那是一个没有GPL约束的替代品，以BSD许可证发布.\n\n按其写的简要自传记录，也有代码作者群体在GPLv3协议升级方面看法冲突，导致其主或被动 退出\nToyBox没有BusyBox功能覆盖广，但又比ToolBox强\n\n诉讼让更多人远离BusyBox及GPL，而不是产生有用的代码\n“摧毁”项目的人是声称要“拯救”这些项目的律师 – Linus\n社区抵制疯子&amp;“治愈”条款\n\n诉讼是激怒企业，并与之树敌的最快方式，而企业是社区很重要的一部分。\n\nLinus并不买诉讼的账，称SFC是传播恶疾的“伤寒玛丽”，引发了无休止的诉讼与争吵：除了律师和疯子，我不知道有谁对BusyBox的结局感到高兴。SFC闪耀了，开发者在法庭获胜，真正发生的是个人和企业开发者及用户都成群结队的逃离，因为用户也不喜欢大量的争吵。\n诉讼毁了社区，而不是保护。破坏了多年通过友好建立起来的所有善意，把朋友变敌人。FSF尝试过对抗模式，这就是为什么从自由软件中分离出了开源概念。\nLinux成功正式因为我们没有疯子对抗，而不是说采用了GPL是唯一的秘诀\n\n过去25年，一旦发现有公司违反GPL，linux社区开发者都会悄悄与公司合作，向他们展示GPL的好处，从内部说服他们，GPL值得遵守。尽管这种方式慢，累，令人沮丧，吃力不讨好，但奏效了，拉拢的不仅仅是linux追随者，还有反对者，发展了社区，赢得了对GPL许可证的信赖\n英特尔过去曾滥用GPL，但它今天是领先的贡献者，是linux最亲密的朋友之一，连微软都不曾与linux有过任何诉讼\n\n治愈补丁\n\n\n用户违反GPLv2，会立即终止该许可。\n\n\n在2017年linux内核组野针对项目补了一个补丁，给了30天补救时间，在收到违规通知后，30天内得到纠正，则许可不会被终止，此方案从GPLv3“治愈”条款借鉴过来。\n\n\nLinux 内核的 GPL 约束\nLinux 内核开源项目在 GPL 的庇佑之下，十多年来在服务器、PC 端以及各种嵌入式设备上成绩斐然，是当之无愧的当代计算机软件的基石。GPL 开源乌托邦和商业社会的丛林法则之间存在剧烈的冲突。有这么几个颇有争论的核心问题：\n\n使用 Linux 内核的头文件定义，进行系统调用的程序是否会被定性为衍生产品？\n链接使用了其他 GPL 的类库的程序是否会被定性为衍生产品？\nLinux 内核动态载入的模块 LKM（Loadable Kernel Modules）是否会被定性为衍生产品，以 LKM 形式开发的 Linux 驱动程序是不是衍生产品？\n\n自问自答\n第一个问题内核开发人员多次澄清普通系统调用为非 GPL 的作用范围，甚至固化在 Linux 内核的源码 COPYING 文档中。\n第二个问题的答案：是，除非能证明主程序与 GPL 模块之间具有 “独立性和可区分性”（Separate and Independent），官方的FAQ如此释疑：任何使用非LGPL类库的软件必须以 GPL 或者 GPL 兼容的许可证下进行发布？\n\n是，因为软件包含了该类库才能运作。\n\n第三个问题是硬件厂商和 Linux 内核开发社区之间一场旷日持久的争论的中心。如AMD/ATI、NVidia 出自硬件规格保密以及知识产权的考虑，长期以二进制软件包的方式独立发布图形驱动。答案：是。\n说到此处，NVidia不会因侵权被起诉 主要原因是， N家已经与Linux社区达成协议，根据协议，N家不开放其驱动的源代码，但会按linux内核版本更新，发布对应的驱动二进制文件，方便用户更新自己的驱动程序。此外，N还发布了CUDA变成平台，为linux用户提供强大的GPU计算力支持，为社区开发者和用户提供了重要的贡献。\n硬件厂商有自己的商业模式和技术优势需要保护，不撕破脸对双方都好（高性能和专业级别的显示驱动用户需求能得到满足，更别说AI世代来临）。只是从GPL社区的理念上，闭源驱动这事不道德。\n业界的确有GPL恐惧症\nGPL下的linux，存在着开源精神和商业机密及知识产权保护相关的商业精神之间的尖锐对立。对硬件厂商及其它商业软件开发者来说，既不能忽视linux广阔的商业市场，也不能放弃产品规格以及知识产权保护，两者都会伤害其立命之本。\n在早年的一份嵌入式操作系统选型的研究报告指出，Linux相对于其它BSD的Unix like操作系统，由于GPL的约束限制，不具有商业优势，一言以蔽之，业界有GPL的恐惧症。\nAndroid 在GPL下的成功\n\n把GPL局限在内核空间，用Adapter模式来处理Android和Linux的关系\nAndroid Open Source Project，简称ASOP（不包含设备驱动程序及Google移动服务）\n\nASOP 作为一个Linux的发行版本，在各种智能嵌入式设备上大放异彩。展示了采用GPL授权代码的手机也能获得巨大的市场成功。\n上古的Android\n主页风格借鉴了MacOS的风格，底部有一个Dock可显示五个应用图标，按Home键弹出快捷方式抽屉，操作完全用摇杆切换图标，与苹果全触控的交互逻辑完全没法竞争。原始Android M3版本有太多全键盘的交互逻辑，时间紧急，谷歌只好以侧滑盖方式保留了全键盘，在默认状态下以屏幕触控进行交互，硬碰IPhone。随着开放手机联盟的奋进，面世三年的Android在2010年就超越了Symbian\nAndroid被收购前，是准备做一个智能相机平台（可联网的相机，核心功能是一个基于云的照片存储系统，为了吸引投资人兴趣，为相机加上键盘，无线通讯等模块，做成了可上网的智能手机Sidekick，一种侧滑盖全键盘手机），公司的运营很不理想。受到Sidekick的启发，佩奇有了开发手机和一个移动操作系统的想法，旋即Android被收购。\nAndroid为何不基于FreeBSD开发？\n\nopenbsd更执着于服务端，freebsd还想将自己包装的更适合通用系统，驱动支持也更好点，二者都强调对安全的关注。\n\n\nFreeBSD对ARM的支持不如linux好，驱动更是不如linux多\n开放平台放给各厂商需要充足的人力资源环境支撑，linux这方面也优于BSD\n也利于避免各厂商fork闭源自己玩，不由Google全盘控制，更利于稳固生态圈\n\n\nX86采用CISC（复杂指令集计算机，指令多，电路设计复杂，功耗大，但对应编译器设计简单）\nARM（进阶精简指令集机器-Advanced RISC Machine）采用RISC精简指令集（指令少，功耗小，但编译器设计很复杂，其关键在于流水线操作能在一个时钟周期完成多条指令），是一个32位精简指令集处理器架构，ARM单核面积仅为X86的 1/7，同样芯片尺寸下可以集成更多核心数。通过”堆核“的方式，使得ARM架构处理器在性能快速提升下，也能保持较低的功耗。\n\nASOP的逃逸设计\n\nAndroid设计的多层软件栈中，采用Adapter模式处理Android和Linux的关系\n\n\n仅最核心的Linux内核使用GPL，Google对内核的修改需回馈回Linux主版本树\n\n\n上层类库，应用框架及所谓用户空间部分，大部分使用了 “ 温和 ” 的 Apache-2.0 软件许可授权，允许 Android 上的开发商基于 Android 的源代码进行开发而不向社区反馈，吸引了商业投资的潜力\n\n\n抛弃GNU glibc重写Bionic libc暴露了更多接口，充满争议单给出了GPL的清晰界限。\n\n其中一个主要原因是 “ We want to keep GPL out of user-space ”。（这其实有点难理解，毕竟 Gnu glibc 采用的是 LGPL 而非 GPL，并基于上文 GPL 第一点的讨论，使用系统调用的程序不再被视为 Linux 内核的衍生产品)。Bionic Libc 拷贝内核头文件的行为，充满着非议。\nAndroid 通过 Bionic libc 类库暴露了更多的接口，包括原来在内核空间才能使用的系统调用接口。其目的是为了让用户空间的驱动能够充分的利用内核和硬件资源，这也可能 Android 抛弃使用 gnu glibc 重写 Bionic libc 的其中一个主要原因。\n还有一个原因是Android被设计在仅有128M内存设备商长期运行，当时的glibc embedded这方面做的不理想，所以另起炉灶\n\nBionic针对移动设备上有限的cpu周期和可用内存进行了剪裁（去掉很多和进程，线程，同步相关的高级功能），在减少库大小的同事也提高了工作效率\n\n\n\n\n\n传统的linux驱动中包含了访问硬件寄存器代码和业务逻辑代码，Android HAL将驱动进行拆分。\n\n将访问硬件寄存器的代码保留到内核中，而将业务逻辑代码提取到HAL中（驱动中包含了技术专利和商业秘密，此举对保护厂家利益很有裨益）\n\n\n\n内核的用户空间 ABI（应用二进制接口）就是一种 GPL 的作用边界，能让开发者意识到用户空间的代码，不被定性为内核的衍生产品，如果 GPL 的界线清晰而易懂，可以帮助大家消除对 GPL 的恐惧。\n当前Android的做法梳理了各方在版权上的权利和义务，让 GPL 止步于内核空间的做法，目前看来获得了惊人的商业成功。且linus称Android违反GPL授权说法不正确，还肯定Android做的不错[18][19]。\n用户空间的驱动\nAndroid 的发展离不开硬件设备厂商的支持，硬件设备厂商最关注的是 Linux 驱动的 GPL 约束问题。公开驱动程序源代码将会泄漏设备的硬件规格和泄漏核心知识产权，这是硬件厂商 GPL 恐惧的缘由。Google 不遗余力的为硬件设备厂家排忧艰难，保驾护航。Android 在用户空间与内核空间之间存在着硬件抽象层  HAL（Hardware Abstraction Layer），HAL 类库本质上一种用户空间的驱动，其中的主要用途之一：规避 GPL\nLinux作为宏内核操作系统（Macrokernel），优点是驱动与系统内核共生在相同的地址空间，运作的效率比较高，缺点是当驱动有问题的时候，容易危及内核的工作安全。用户区间驱动的思路是将驱动的主要业务逻辑剥离出来放到用户空间的主驱动模块中，内核中的驱动是个 “影子” 驱动，只有透传控制命令和数据的功能。\n\n调试内核空间的程序比调试用户空间复杂得多，内核空间的bug引起的后果也严重的多。device driver是内核空间占比较大的代码。\n用户空间程序与设备通信的方法，主要有以下几种方式\n\n通过ioperm获取操作IO端口的权限，然后用inb/inw/inl/outb/outw/outl等函数，避开设备驱动程序，直接操作IO端口\n用ioctl函数去操作/dev目录下对应的设备，这是设备驱动程序提供的接口，像鼠标，键盘和触屏一般都是这样做\n用write/read/mmap去操作/dev目录下对应的设备，这也是设备驱动程序提供的接口，像framebuffer等都是这样操作的。\n\n对于hotplug设备，如U盘，上面的方法就有些困难了。处理hotplug的传统方法是，在内核中执行一个称为hotplug的程序，相关参数通过环境变量传递过来，再由hotplug通知其它关注hotplug事件的程序，这样效率低下且不那么优雅。新的方法是用一种特殊类型的socket–netlink实现的，专门用于内核空间和用户空间的异步通信。\n\n规避 GPL 的硬件厂家把需要保护的商业机密以及知识产权相关的逻辑放在 HAL 层，以二进制包的方式发布，不需要公开源代码。\nHAL\n简单来说，HAL就是一个设备数据库，管理当前系统中所有设备，你可以以多种灵活方式去查询这些设备，获取指定设备的特性，注册设备变化事件。Window下和Linux下的HAL所指并非相同之物。\n\nwindow下的HAL位于操作系统最底层，直接操作物理硬件，隔离与硬件相关的信息。为上层操作系统和设备驱动程序提供一个统一的接口，起到硬件抽象的作用，有了HAL，编写驱动要容易不少。\nlinux下的HAL，是一个位于操作系统和驱动程序之上运行于用户空间中的服务程序。众所周知，linux习惯用文件来抽象设备，但设备文件名没什么规范，从简单的文件名，无法得知它是什么设备，具有什么特性。\n\n乱七八糟的设备文件让设备的管理和应用程序的开发都变得很麻烦，所以有必要提供一个硬件抽象层，为上层应用程序提供一个统一的接口，告知其系统中有哪些设备可用，及这些设备的类型，特性和能力，让应用程序知道如何使用它们。\n针对一些特殊要求如一些硬件，可能需访问一些用户空间资源，或在内核空间不方便完成\n\n\n\n公地悲剧\n开源是每个人都参与其中，共享责任和所有权。这意味着利用该软件谋利的公司需要做一些回馈，无论是代码，文档，社区工作还是金钱。在可持续的开源中，参与者应该感到做贡献的必要性和道德义务。\n开源的早期大部分工作都是由热情的开发人员在深夜和周末完成的，这一切的动力源于他们对编程的热爱和在社区大家一起工作的乐趣。但在过去10到15年间，情况发生了巨大变化。\n开源软件生态恶化\n\n开源软件生态有变：以前，开源软件有众多的使用者，会形成一个社区，从社区得到反馈和支持。现在，企业级开源软件很可能都有云服务，导致企业客户都流向了云服务商，虽成为众多大型组织的关键基础设施，软件自身却形成不了社区。平衡全球企业社区的需求（云服务商反过来会对软件产生巨大影响），同时支持庞大的开源需求必然是一个巨大的负担，所以近些年见到不少流行的开源软件变更许可证（只是抵抗云服务商的一种策略）。\n\n如Amazon的Elastisearch的一个服务收入就高过了原始开发商Elastic的所有收入，相当于开源开发者在给Amazon创造利润\n\n\n云厂商代表还不做回馈，有些违背了开源共享责任和所有权的道德义务\n\n当Elastic推出付费版本后，Amazon一不做二不休，把开源分支分叉了，把所有收费功能写出来了\nAmazon不仅拿走利润，还创造出一个竞争性产品，类似的情况还有，Azure 提供 MongoDB 兼容的 CosmosDB 服务。导致开源数据库感到了云服务商的威胁，开始改变授权模式\n\n\n\n许多开源数据库对云服务都有限制。这完全是由 Amazon 的 aws 云服务引起的。aws 一直提供数据库服务，2009年推出 RDS MySQL 服务，2013年推出 PostgreSQL 服务，2015年推出 Amazon Elasticsearch 服务。大量企业购买这些服务，使得收入都向 Amazon 集中。如上面Elastisearch的例子。\n许可证授权变化\n近些年不少流行开源软件变更许可证，三种授权变化：\n\nAGPL：防止云服务上对软件进行内部修改，坏处是打击企业采用该软件的积极性\n产品分层：免费社区版和收费企业版，这样能保证收入，高级功能只在企业版不利于软件的开源\n软件开源，提供服务必须付费：CockroachDB 的策略。目前来看这种策略在开源和收费之间达到平衡，但影响力还不大。\n\nBSL(Business Source License)打个样\n BSL 的模式下，软件的源代码始终是公开的，代码的非生产使用始终免费。另外，软件作者即许可证还可以增加附加的使用条款，允许部分生产使用。同时，BSL 会保证在某一时间点，软件的源代码自动更换许可证为开源许可证，比如 GPL 2.0 以及更高的版本，或者是其他兼容许可证，如 Apache 许可证。\n\n“BSL 的目的是为客户、开发人员、用户和供应商提升软件行业整体的自由度和创新性。最后，我希望 BSL 将为新的商业模式铺平道路，这种新模式可以在不主要依赖捐赠的情况下维持软件开发。”，创造者如是说，希望 BSL 能带来新的增长模式，表达了开源需要支持的观点。\n\n不是开源许可证\nBusiness Source License 1.1不是开源许可证，BSL 不符合 OSI 所提出的 OSD 开源定义。原因在于 OSD 不允许对特定类型的行为做限制，如生产用途。\n\n\n一是非商业性使用没有限制，商业性使用有限制。\n\n\n二是许可证是模块化的，可以附加自己的条件（Additional Use Grant）\n\n\n是参数化许可证\nBSL 是一种参数化许可证，它允许版权所有者设置三个灵活的参数：\n\n一是更改许可证，该作品在 “更改日期” 之后，可更改成 GPL 版本 2.0 或更高版本兼容的许可证；\n二是更改日期，作品不再根据 BSL 获得许可，而是根据 “变更许可” 获得许可的日期；\n三是设置附加条款，“针对性” 收费，BSL 默认禁止软件的生产使用，许可人可以选择使用此参数向被许可人授予额外的权利。例如，它允许开发人员设置服务器 / CPU 等的数量限制，测试环境没有使用限制，只有生产使用时，高于限制值的使用会产生许可费。比如，MariaDB 附加的条件是，一个项目最多只能使用两个数据库服务器实例，超过就要付费。CockroachDB 附加的条件是，对外提供商业性的数据库服务需要付费。听起来像是一个非常标准的商业授权，但它与商业授权最大的区别在于 —— 源码始终可用。并且 BSL 通过设置一个到期日，保证 BSL 会变更成标准的开源许可证。\n\n但拥趸寥寥\n放眼 MariaDB 之外，BSL 的使用者并不多，并且，从其他使用者的附加条款来看，BSL 更多地是作为一种防御云厂商 “白嫖” 的方式。\n\nCockroachDB：变更日期 3 年；变更为 Apache 2.0；附加规定允许将 CockroachDB 用于任何目的（例如生产），只要不将其作为商业 DBaaS（数据库即服务）提供即可。 另几个软件也有类似禁止SAAS化的附加设定。\n\n国产开源：木兰许可协议系列\n木兰系列许可证包含”木兰宽松许可证“和”木兰公共许可证“（后续可能更多），均由北京大学作为牵头单位，依托全国信标委云计算标准工作组和中国开源云联盟，联合多方起草，修订并发布\n\n第一个版本于2019年8月5日发布，第二版本于2020年1月发布\n2020年2月14日，开源促进会（OSI，Open Source Initiative）批准了来自中国的木兰开源许可证第二版（MulanPSL v2），正式成为一个国际化的开源软件许可证（或称”协议“）\n\n许可证兼容\nBSD，MIT类宽松许可证兼容Mulan PSL V2许可证；\nMulan PSL V2兼容Apache License V2.0，L/GPLv2，L/GPLv3等许可证。即，许可在BSD，MIT类许可证下的代码可贡献到Mulan PSL V2项目中，许可在Mulan PSL V2下的代码可贡献到Apache License V2.0，L/GPLv2，L/GPLv3等项目中。\n木兰许可证取名由来？\n《木兰辞》有言：万里赴戎机，关山度若飞。像飞一般翻越关隘和山岭，或许这是木兰协议团队取名的由来。\n\n木兰辞作为北朝民歌，按歌中所写，花家应该是北魏鲜卑军户，并不是汉人，参与的是北魏太武帝（第三位皇帝）拓跋焘对抗 柔然 之战，先后十三次，木兰参加的应是429年这场胜果最大的一次。可汗这个名称也是最早由鲜卑人使用。\n柔然，是鲜卑和东胡的混合。也算是蒙古族的祖先构成之一。据传柔然的祖先是鲜卑家的奴隶，两家打了长达超百年的战争（391~523)，跟15世纪英法百年战争有一拼，还都出了女将军，木兰vs贞德，不过木兰胜利凯旋，贞德19岁火刑而死。公元552年，突厥人崛起，柔然国灭，几乎同时，北魏也分裂灭亡。\n\n一些杂问\n能使用多个开源协议吗\n当然可以，但要注意许可证冲突的问题\n\n以Apache V2.0为例，看看冲突情况\n\n\n\n\n协议\n是否与Apache2.0协议冲突\n\n\n\n\nBSD\n不冲突\n\n\nGPL\n冲突\n\n\nLGPL\n不冲突\n\n\nMIT\n不冲突\n\n\nMPL\n不冲突\n\n\n\n许可证兼容\n如何理解两个证兼容\n把两个程序合成一个较大的程序，你就会碰到此类问题。当无论如何都不能同时满足两个许可证，那么它们就是不兼容的。有些许可证允许把两个模块连接在一起，但是不允许把两个代码合成一个模块。\n例如你只是想把两个程序安装到同一系统中，那么它们的许可证是没必要兼容的，因为安装并不是把它们合成一个大的程序。\n为何原始的4句BSD许可证和GPL不兼容？\n因为它强加了一个GPL没有的条款：就是，要求对程序做广告的条款。而GPLv2/v3的陈述是，不能对被授权者获得的权利强加任何额外的限制。广告条款正是这种额外的限制，修正的BSD（3句）许可证没有这个广告条款，他就没有这个问题\nMIT和GPL如何兼容\n举例，A（使用MIT）和B（使用GPL）合并起来，形成C，如 netdata 这个代码包就是如此情况\n发布C时，你要显著地在文档或代码里体现以下内容\n\n说明C是GPL授权的，比如用LICENSE或COPYING文件来说明\n说明C用A，说明A的著作权，以及A是用MIT协议的。一方面要在文档中说，另一方面，在代码里也要保留A的著作权和MIT协议\n\n这样做，不违背MIT，也不违背GPL。别人看了，如果想用C，就遵循GPL；如果只想用A，遵循MIT就可以了\n我后面能修改许可证吗\n版权所有者负责许可条款，只要你是唯一的贡献者，就可以轻松更改许可证。\n这样Linus想要在不同的许可下发布Linux内核，他可能首先需要成千上万的贡献者同意该项目，o(￣︶￣)o\n开源对工程师的要求\n\n结构要求\n\n项目结构：应有一个合理，专业，符合语言特色的项目结构\nLICENSE：声明遵循什么软件协议\nREADME.md：放在项目根目录下，包含项目描述，依赖项，安装、使用、贡献方法和遵循的软件协议\nCHANGELOG：目录，用以存放版本的变更历史，方便其他开发者了解新旧版本的变更内容\nexamples：完善的examples，可帮助用户快速学习和使用项目\nCONTRIBUTING： 用以说明如何给本项目贡献代码，流程和流程细节的详细操作\ndocs：目录，存放项目所有文档，如安装、使用、开发文档。部分可链接到根目录的README中。使得开发者能轻松理解、部署、使用项目\n\n\n品质要求\n\n安全：不要出现类似内部IP，域名，密码，密钥这类信息\n好的Commit Message记录：遵循一定的规范，使其它开发者能快速浏览和理解变更历史，减少学习成本\n严格遵循代码规范：开源代码面向所有开发者，不规范和可读性差的代码不利于其他开发者阅读和贡献代码\n代码质量：低质量代码隐藏性能和功能缺陷，还会影响开源项目品牌和开源效果\n单测覆盖率：使得开源项目更专业，也可保证代码质量，让你更安心发布版本\n版本发布规范+向下兼容：尽可能减少发布变更的影响\n详细的文档说明：保证代码能被其他开发者很容易的阅读和贡献代码，文档的质量和数量都有高水准\n发布可用的版本：确保每次发布都经过充分测试，每个版本都是可用的\n及时处理pull request、issue、评论等+持续的更新：好的开源项目，应能持续更新功能，修复bug，当项目被别的开发者提交pull request、issue、评论，要及时处理，激发其他贡献者的积极性。对于一些已结项、不维护的开源项目，要及时对项目进行归档，并在项目中予以说明\n\n建立讨论小组：最好和贡献者建立讨论小组，每周或每月组织讨论，共同维护\n\n\n\n\n做好推广：如果有条件，可宣传运营开源项目，如在各类技术平台发表文章，创建交流群等\n\n开源使用的风险与治理\n开源软件在最为敏感的金融行业的应用主要面临合规风险、安全风险、技术风险和管理风险等四类风险[16]。\nmindmap\n  root((开源风险))\n    合规风险（违反许可，导致侵权）\n    安全风险（安全漏洞，被攻击风险）\n    技术风险（专业技能不足或错误应用，导致故障）\n    管理风险（台账不请，难紧急应对`\n\n台账：原指摆放在台上供人翻阅的账簿，也就是明细记录表\n\ntimeline\n    title 开源风险治理建设锚点\n    section 战略目标\n        感知+治理 : 合规使用\n        : 供应链安全\n        : 安全使用\n    section 过程能力\n        引入管控 : 引入台账\n        : 软件测评\n        : 漏洞分析\n        问题管控 : 专家支持\n        : 漏洞跟踪\n        : 风险跟踪\n        退出管理: 存量治理\n        : 退出台账\n    section 工具能力\n        托管平台 : 制品仓库\n        : 知识库\n        : DevOps集成\n        组成分析 : 制品成分分析\n        : 许可证扫描\n        : 漏洞扫描\n        : 黑名单\n        : 报告清单\n供应链安全\n23年以来，部分公司也收到Qt公司的律师函，被指控使用其开源软件但未遵守开源许可证义务。QT公司现在主要靠卖license活，有LGPL和商用license两种协议，在桌面开发方面一般用LGPL没问题，但其就想在嵌入式上挣点钱。例如其在IOS上官方只提供静态库，你开发闭源软件就容易中招。\n现在流行的组件扫描和漏洞发现工具，是美国的Synopsys（新思科技）的BlackDuck，但其只在国内销售不带库的版本，要把安全漏洞对应到开源组件上，需要把代码特征值传到国外网站上，才能对比\nSynopsys Detect扫描项目并计算项目文件的特征值信息，这些特征值信息会加密传至BlackDuck应用服务；BlackDuck应用服务器再将项目文件特征值信息加密上传至BlackDuck服务进行匹配对比，并将识别出的项目开源组件版本及安全漏洞信息展示给用户\n安全生态\n\n\n84%的代码库至少包含一个已知的开源漏洞（仍在上升趋势），48%的含高风险漏洞（微下降趋势）\n\n高风险漏洞是指已被主动利用，已被证明存在或已被归类为远程代码执行的漏洞\n\n\n\n开源漏洞在流行项目中较为普遍，检查最流行的 Java、JavaScript、Python 和 .NET 项目的前 10% 时,29%的流行项目至少包含一个已知的安全漏洞[27]\n\n\n截止23年开源软件模块库中，检测到24w恶意软件包，增长非常迅速。Node.js (npm) 和 Python (PyPI) 存储库一直是恶意软件包的主要目标，推测是因为在软件包安装过程中很容易触发恶意代码\n\n95%以窃取敏感信息为目的\n\n\n\n34%的受访者表示过去12个月经历过”利用开源软件已知漏洞发起的攻击“，到2025这比例可能会继续攀升\n\n\n2023.11月工行就因为思杰软件的漏洞，被黑客侵入勒索，交了赎金（也难怪思杰最近也退出中国了）\n开源软件过期状态\n\n91%的代码库都包含过去2年未进行任何更新的开源代码，即非最新版本\n\n功能升级\n代码改进\n安全问题修复\n\n\n商业软件的补丁和更新是自动推送的，使用开源软件用户端的责任加重了，这也是信任带来的问题\n\n碎片化加剧问题\n\n15%的代码库中包含同一组件的10个以上版本\n\n\n究其根因，还是开展维护活动的贡献者缺乏激励\n\n感知+治理\n各团队依赖关系管理实践差异极大，保护软件供应链的第一步是管理应用程序中的开源代码和第三方代码\n\n了解贵组织对它们的依赖情况\n针对这些组件引入的风险轻松收集相关信息\n借助工具和实践对其进行管理，确定优先级并进行补救\n只有获得供应链及其众多相关元素完全可视性，你才能开始保护它\n\n\n依赖管理是一项大规模的努力，仅在生产应用程序中的 25% 的库上实施\n\n【要信任，但要验证】是与开源生态共存的工作原则\n许可证治理咋办？\n直接治理\n\n替换：替换组件本身或替换组件版本，也包含外购组件替换\n停用：完全删除或停用该组件\n\n软性治理\n\n\n\n方法类别\n介绍\n适用场景\n\n\n\n\n程序隔离\n剥离封装为服务对外提供\n适用多数许可协议\n\n\n公示声明\n哪里用了开源软件，协议是什么，在哪里可以下载\n客户端，SDK等，GPL，CDDL，LGPL，MPL等有“许可证声明”约束条件的协议\n\n\n引用变更\n用“依赖”替代“嵌入”，如动态链接替代静态\n绝大部分开源许可协议\n\n\n用户下载\n开源组件从部署包中剥离，在软件操作文档中给出指引，提示用户自己下载软件运行所需要的开源组件\n存在无法避免传染的风险协议\n\n\n\n引用\n1.runoob.com. 各种开源协议介绍 ↩2.百度. Linus全身每一个细胞都在拒绝GPLv3 ↩3.ifanr. Android ，在争议中逃离 Linux 内核的 GPL 约束 ↩4.STGOD. 各种开源协议介绍 ↩5.腾讯云 LGPL协议详解 ↩6.oschina BSD开源协议对比 ↩7.oschia 开源指北大全 ↩8.阮一峰 为何开源数据库更改许可证 ↩9.微月人话 步进式解读Apache许可证 ↩10.ifengkou 开源软件和开源许可证 ↩11.知产力 开源，就真的可以随意使用吗？ ↩12.软件学报 开源许可证的选择: 挑战和影响因素 ↩13.维基百科 自由及开放源代码软件许可协议比较 ↩14.维基百科 GNU通用公共许可证 ↩15.ZGEO博客 关于开源软件许可的介绍 ↩16.安全内参 西安银行开源软件治理体系的建设实践 ↩17.OSCHINA FreeBSD大败局 ↩18.新浪数码 Linux创始人：Android问题多不在Google ↩19.OSCHINA Linus 称 Android 违反 GPL 授权说法不正确 ↩20.CSDN 深入Android系统 Bionic库 ↩21.gnu.org GNU 许可证常见问题 ↩22.开源中国 GPL也没有那么可怕 ↩23.百度问问 nvidia闭源驱动为什么不被起诉 ↩24.百家号 android发展史 ↩25.OSCHINA linus称Android违反GPL授权说法不正确 ↩26.gnu.org 为什么“自由软件”好于“开源” ↩27.安全内参 2021 年软件供应链状况报告 ↩28.synopsys 2023开源安全和风险分析报告 ↩29.Sonatype 第9次软件供应链状态报告 ↩30.知乎 开源软件的安全与自主可控 ↩31.csdn 常见开源许可协议核心内容 ↩32.IT分享知识网 开源协议的权限解析 ↩33.csdn 开源协议思维导图 ↩34.腾讯云 一图说明常见开源协议 ↩35.腾讯云 LGPL协议详解 ↩36.GNU LGPL 和 Java ↩37.CSDN 人话解读 LGPLv3 ↩38.InfoQ MongDB 与 SSPL ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"微信版本的历史地图","url":"/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE.html","content":"\n内容是22年1月27号整理完的，提及v1.0~8.0的历史脉络，搬上来更易阅读。借鉴了他人的网络文章的图和内容，也融合了梁宁得到课程里的一些内容。\n国民应用微信这一路走来，拳打米聊，脚踢微博，用春晚红包逼阿里高层过年开会，健康码普及又打开父母的手机，它俨然已是大而不能倒的基础设施，虽然天下也苦微信久矣，我最近还吐槽其支付特性中霸王设定，不可否认此一款创造了诸多第一的产品能给我们不小的启发。\n产品直指人心最重要\n很多产品为什么第一版本设计的那么复杂？因为不自信\n\n对于&quot;只要做强哪个点，就是对的&quot;没把握，希望通过一些附加功能点上找心理依靠\n奥卡姆剃刀也在这里检验你的认知水平能力\n\n要的是什么？\n\n简单\n直接\n切中要害，直指人心\n\n\n1.0–熟人间的通讯工具\nV1.0\n2011.1.21 微信1.0，iphone版首发，只有4个功能，三天后的1月24日，微信又发布了第一个Android版本\n\n设置头像和微信名\n发送信息\n发送图片\n导入通讯录\n\n\n当时主要通过QQ号和邮箱注册，添加好友的方式是邀请QQ好友和添加微信号\nV1.2\nv1.2添加了多人会话，通讯录分组和会话搜索，腾讯微博私信互通，接着支持表情包，好友备注和黑名单\n\n\n每隔一个多月更新一个版本，它在社交上的基本功能继续增加，并不断通过腾讯其它产品拉新。微信1.x版本共有400w用户\n\n拳打米聊\n米聊起步在先，微信的确先是抄袭，早期大家都定义为熟人间通信工具（用免费的发短信照片，替代收费的短信和彩信），对比只能发文字的飞信，显得更有意思。\n但系统能力让微信赢了米聊。直到2.0版之前，微信vs米聊用户数 400w vs 1000w\n\n系统能力上，微信团队已经做了快10年的QQ邮箱，全国最大的邮箱服务平台，有个很强的功能是超大附件。超大数据定点传输负载均衡，系统不崩溃。这点系统能力建设是米聊团队望尘莫及的。\n初创期的小米，根本不可能囤积那么多设备去提升米聊的性能，这就是你永远觉得微信很快，米聊有时会慢，会卡，偶尔系统崩溃。这就像ATM机，前端那个铁盒子没你想象的那么重要，一个ATM机要放20多万现金，一个银行若要提供100台ATM机时，就意味着把2000w现金放到外面去，一毛钱增值收益都没有。分流了企业的核心资源，它的价值不是界面红的蓝的，先出卡还是先出钞那么表面，这个男女老幼通吃没有用户区隔的产品，提供完整系统能力需要多个岗位配合，战略规划和运营，现金，硬件维护，客服，技术等\n\n微信的1.0、1.1版本的时候，加好友不需要备注，因为不会加陌生人，这里只有特别熟的朋友。\n当2.x版本查看附近的人上线后，微信用户突击到了2000w，已和米聊拉开差距。随后的迭代里，3.0退出摇一摇功能，微信用户上亿。米聊峰值永远停留在3000w。在2020年1月19日晚7点40分，张小龙用视频号开启微信下一个十年，而数小时前，米聊宣布将于2.19日停服，同样10年，一个坐拥12亿用户，一个黯然退场\n2.0–陌生人社交上场\n\n初版4个月后2011年5月10日\n\n新增功能：语音通讯（发语音）功能，支持QQ邮箱提醒\n\nV2.2\nV2.2 加了查看附近的人（距离V1.0不到半年）\n\n查看附近的人一上线，在没有动用任何QQ资源的前提下，日增用户一跃达到10w\n\n\n陌陌同天登场\n当微信V2.2版本上线的当天，陌陌也同一天上线，同是基于位置的陌生人社交。\n米聊止步于熟人社交，直到很久之后才打破，但那时大势已去。张小龙和陌陌的唐岩体验过孤独与弱势，有与陌生人建立连接的需求。且和陌生人交往过程中，压力点的体验非常清楚。\n雷军少年得志，他的世界一直非常拥挤，时间宝贵，个人需求就是提升与熟人间的沟通效率，没有认识陌生人的需求。\nV2.5\nV2.5增加聊天支持发送视频，以及加了一些细节特性功能，执着于引流\n\n支持手机通讯录匹配找到微信好友，支持向我推荐QQ好友和通讯录好友（将熟人间的社交与微信相联系）\n接收QQ离线消息\n语音记事本；设置个性签名\n支持手机号注册微信\n好友验证，QQ号查找到我，将我推荐给QQ好友等隐私设置\nQQ邮箱中，还会经常受到微信好友的微信下载邀请，持续骚扰，相当于转介绍\n\n增长神话\n微信上线433天，用户突破一亿。QQ这个数字用了近10年，FB用了5年半，twitter用了4年，微博用了20个月，微信用时14个月，这得益于无线互联网时代的到来。这个时代，诸多好手你上我下。\n移动互联网元年\n2012，算是中国移动物联网时代的元年，这一年小米2发布，但与此同时，360搜索也发布，跟百度大打搜索战争。无线互联网时代降临的趋势节点，连大佬们也不是全部观察得到。\n3.0–扫一扫连接物理世界，服务号伏笔内容生态\n2011年10月1日，V3.0上线，更像是一个蛰伏过度期，仍在谋用户增长，没生态化反\n\n\n摇一摇，漂流瓶\n\n漂流瓶功能现已下线，始于寂寞，止于色情。这个非即时通讯功能满足了用户对倾诉和匿名社交的需求。最早是在2010QQ邮箱上帝一个小功能\n\n\n\n\n群组可保存至通讯录\n\n\n还有一些不那么重要的功能\n\n支持繁体中文语言界面，支持插件卸载安装，免打扰\n港澳台，美国，日本五个地区的用户绑定手机号\n\n\n\nV3.5\n在V3.5这个版本中，新增了扫描二维码，二维码名片的功能，与此同时，还有支持更多表情，自定义聊天背景，石头剪子布和扔骰子游戏\n\n\nV3.6\nV3.6版本中，腾讯新闻插件，腾讯微博插件，支持写邮件，服务号上线\n\n从这个版本开始，微信和陌陌开始走向不同的道路，陌陌继续连接陌生人，但微信生态更高一个档次，但此时服务号还不火，且待在沉默中爆发\n\n核心的聊天功能还在优化，新增了\n\n群发助手\n发祝福有彩蛋\n支持语音取消\n\n\n4.0–朋友圈转身社交平台\n2012年4月19日，V4.0发布\n\n这一版的打开介绍有这样一段话：如你所知，微信不只是一个聊天工具。一切从照片开始，你拍了一张照片，你就拥有了自己的相册，在[朋友圈]你可以了解朋友们的生活。如你所见，微信，是一个生活方式。\n\n\n\n相册功能和朋友圈功能，照片可分享到微信内的朋友圈\n\n\n在推出朋友圈工作之前，做了两个前置工作，V3.5增加了扫描二维码，V3.6增加了微信公众号。这两个动作的价值在于，一个普通人的生活没有那么多可供朋友消费的内容，如果没有这两个前置功能，我们就直接打开朋友圈，会非常难看\n\n\n微信消息可向好友群发，照片和视频可转发给好友\n转发当下所在位置给好友\n微信开放接口，支持从第三方应用向好友分享音乐，新闻等内容\n给好友加星标，可用facebook账号登录，英文版本改名WeChat，界面支持7种语言，支持用海外手机号码接收验证码进行注册\n\n\nV4.2\nV4.2版本中，可以与朋友视频聊天[视频聊天才是国民福利]，朋友圈可以设置权限，也终于可恢复朋友圈照片的评论了\n\n此前的版本朋友评论你是无法回复的，直到4.2才做出来，这说明没必要憋大招，没有必要所有功能全做好再出来。因为如果你非常想回复他，大可以点对点跟他说。基于核心功能附加的其它功能点没有那么重要，可以一步步来\n\n\n\nV4.3 &amp; V4.5\nV4.3版本中，支持解绑QQ号和手机号，聊天置顶，语音搜索也出现了，此时的扫一扫可以扫描任何二维码了\n\nV4.5版本推出了内容公众号，同时还支持实时对讲和多人实时语音聊天，进化了摇一摇和新增群二维码，还有位置导航功能\n\n公众号的突破\n微博是喧嚣的广场，那么公众号就是小圈子的沙龙会客厅。在微博形成围观改变中国超大公共空间之外，微信公众号另起炉灶，成功创造出了一个内容输出平台，开凿出一条内容护城河\n公众号推动了一大批媒体人创业，孕育了一大波网红\n公众号上线15个月后，达到200w个，每天新增8000个。到2015年10月，总量突破1000w，这使得它有信心成为一个新的桌面系统，构建一个内生闭环的社交和商业生态链\n5.0–开始成为移动互联网枢纽\n2013年8月，V5.0发布，重磅功能有：微信支付，公众号/服务号，进化的扫一扫\n为了让好几亿用户尽可能更新到V5.0，当时微信把更新开机界面变成了一个“飞机大战”小游戏\n\n订阅号与服务号\n为了抑制公众账号信息泛滥，V5.0分为了两类账号：订阅号和服务号\n\n订阅号可以个人为主体注册，服务号需要提供企业信息\n\n\n扫一扫升级\n扫一扫的内容除了之前的二维码之外，还增加了扫描条形码，扫封面，扫街景，扫描翻译。这个功能由最初的社交（加好友）进化为各种商业交易的入口\n\n微信支付\n4.7亿用户，社交功能已经够用，如何从移动版的QQ空间（晒照，聊天，点赞）升级为移动商业帝国，绑定银行卡就是这个预动作\n\n微信支付功能，打通线上线下，可把微信号和银行账号绑定\n\n\n宕机失联\n2013年7月22日，微信遭遇宕机，花了6个小时才修复，人们在社交网络上失联，让人们意识到它的大而不能倒\n6.0–钱的流通，微信红包\n2014年9月30日，微信6.0 for ios版本上线，同一天还有一个新闻是国行iphone获得入网许可，即将开放预定（彼时iphone6刚刚面世）\n最初6.0版本没有太多大招，新增的主要功能有\n\n\n微信小视频，可分享到朋友圈或聊天界面\n\n\n\n微信卡包，可聚合优惠券，会员卡，机票，电影票等（后证实也是鸡肋功能，我还是卡包的首发对接方）\n\n\n\n可为微信钱包设置手势密码，游戏中心改版\n\n\nV6.1-红包降临\n2015年新年发布的V6.1版本中，微信红包来了，羊年春晚借势爆发，400w到一亿一天完成，当然不是任何一个小公司在这种情况下能接得住\n\n6.0-7.0之间相隔了52个月，也就是超过了4年，斗转星移\n\n\n6.2 版本：二维码收款，长按翻译朋友圈文字\n\n\n比政治讳，没有6.4版本\n\n\n6.5.1，朋友圈中分享10s小视频\n\n\n6.6.1版本for ios(2017-12-28)，小程序可以下拉访问到\n\n2017年1月9日，张小龙在2017微信公开课Pro上发布的小程序正式上线\n\n\n\n\n微信红包的历史\n\n2013年的移动支付市场，支付宝市占率76%，财付通3.3%，这20多倍的差距，差不多是3层楼和76层楼的差别。\n\n微信红包其实于2013年偶然诞生（团队业余时间小项目，用公司资源未做申报就做了），当时是微信里的一个插件（点对点红包，拼手气红包均有）。自诞生来只是在小圈层中传播发展，并未有多大能量。\n2014年春节达到了一个峰值，458w人，几个月后就没再突破这个数字，且是掉下来的。这个458w可能是2014年时全国互联网圈的核心活跃人数（尝鲜爱好者），是自然能量达到的极限值。在不借助任何外部势力的情况下，近7个月的时间，困在400w用户里无法突破。\n阿里集五福的失败\n2015年支付宝集5福，分2亿，参加活动不少于2000w人，但集齐5福的人只有79w（82w张敬业福），不爽的人有96%，如果以4亿用户为基数，不爽率99.8%，这可是消耗了2.7亿的广告费\n7.0–天下初定，小修小补\n\n7.0的大版本维持了2年多，从2018年出现，到2021年上线8.0版本，期间一直在7.0.xx修修补补，一个ios深色模式也是拖拖拉拉，好像整体团队放价或颓了一样\n\n\n\n主界面全新改版，更扁平化和清晰直观\n\n\n新增时刻视频，也可给朋友的视频冒个泡，告诉他你来过； — 强如微信也要失败，小龙也开始慢慢下山去打高尔夫\n\n\n\n\n\n点赞变好看，可在看一看中浏览朋友认为好看的文章— 在用户隐私上动心思，结果使得活跃度受到抑制\n\n\n\n可在单聊中设置强提醒（全屏提醒并震动）-- 我从来没用过，在8.0版本上已经不见了\n\n\n8.0–继续短视频攻伐\n2021年1月21日发布，老一辈全歇菜，新生代登场\n\n动画表情\n\n\n\n浮窗改版，破除最多5个的限制\n自定义状态\n\n\n\n视频有关\n\n视频号点击可隐藏，为了短视频，也是拼了，其实国内非监管类的各家对于用户隐私，应该都是说一套做一套\n视频号原声提取\n\n\n公众号末尾新增收藏按钮\n\n\n\n下拉菜单变更，用过的小程序被收到顶层，只展示最近用过的5个，空白区域则会显示最近看过的直播，未看完的视频，文章等\n红包可以加视频\n\n数字化看产品\n\n\n每天有10.9亿用户打开微信，3.3亿用户进行了视频通话\n\n\n7.8亿用户进入朋友圈，1.2亿发表朋友圈，其中照片6.7亿张，短视频1亿条\n\n\n3.6亿用户读公众号文章，4亿用户使用小程序\n\n\n2亿人朋友圈设置仅3天可见，2019年时还是1亿人\n\n\n结语\n\n\n微信是一个无线互联网时代明星产品的缩影，凝结了认知战略和系统能力\n\n从最早一个通讯工具，到社交平台，到移动生活场景，甚至是移动商业帝国\n从一个点，走向了一个面，最后形成了一个巨大的经济体，就像一个生命体一样，会有意识和进化\n从生物学启示来说，巨无霸生命体自然寿命比较长\n\n\n\n不要憋大招，新世代敏捷是王道\n\n从一个最好的内核开始\n迭代中，重要的是次序，前一个动作是后一个动作的预动作\n基于核心功能附加的其它功能点没有那么重要，可以一步步来\n\n\n\n参考\n微信八年：从 1.0 到 7.0 版本，一个通讯工具的进化史\n从微信版本历史，学产品功能迭代和用户体验（下）\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["历史","方法论"]},{"title":"微博微信差别与微博用户画像","url":"/%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%8E%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html","content":"\n概论\n每个公司都有自己的企业基因，新浪的基因是网络媒体，腾讯的基因是社交和聊天工具，决定了两家的产品及走向。\n微博和微信最核心的区别在于媒体Media和社交Social的侧重。\n\n微博本质是一个媒体工具，同时有社交的功能；\n微信的本质是社交工具，同时有一些媒体的功能\n\n微博作为媒体工具，关系主要在兴趣上，关系质量较弱，单向传播多，注重是传播速度和内容公开。弱关系更有利于知识和信息的传播\n微信是社交工具，关系建立在社会关系上，注重私人内容交流和互动，消息消化率高，评论回复率是肯定高过微博。强关系更倾向于沟通和和分享。\n二者重叠吗\n互联网时代以前，你还是要看电视（媒体），也还要打电话（社交）。\n微博做的是媒体，主要是卖广告，微信做的是社交，卖的是增值服务和平台。\n早期产品模型\n\n微博：让所有人看到你发的短信\n微信：用流量打电话；公众号针对粉丝订阅模式，很类似邮件营销的进化版本\n\n\n用户心理需求不同\n微博上用户更具隐匿性，因熟人不多，更加倾向于表达真实的自我，满足更多的是用户的尊重需要和价值实现需要。微信因为是熟人关系网络，重在沟通分享，更多是满足用户的情感和归属需要（喜怒不形于朋友圈，而形于微博）。\n\n微博：一个人的狂欢。陌生人社交产品，都带着一种扩大交际圈和排解孤独的味道。\n微信：一群人的孤单\n\n微博微信的用户使用目的雷达图可见下，微博主要目的是“及时了解新闻热点”，微信用户最主要是“和朋友互动”\n\n一种内容结果的比喻，很是揶揄。微博让大家意识到：天下SB数不胜数。微信用朋友圈证明：SB出自亲朋好友。\n微博微信内容分析\n强传播者的差异\n微信总榜前50公众号中，占比最大的是娱乐类型的公众号，达到32%，其中6个是笑话类；其次是文化类公众号，占比24%，然后依次是生活类20%，时事类18%，健康类4%\n\n微博总榜前50，占比最大的依然是泛娱乐类的号，达到52%，26个，其中19个是明星个人号，其它几个也是和娱乐明星息息相关的娱乐资讯号。其次是时事类，占比34%，大部分是权威新闻类IP，然后依次是生活类10%，文化类2%\n\n结论\n微博上以强传播力IP以名人和知名品牌为主，微信上强IP为草根IP为主。内容方面，微博以娱乐时事为主，微信上除了娱乐和时事，文化类也占了重要的比例。\n深度内容或草根以微信端为主战场会更好。\n且很有意思的一点，微博和微信前50强或100强，没有重合，进一步说明微博和微信平台调性和传播方面的巨大差异。\n内容形式区别\n微博内容短文+视频为主，视频多来源于秒拍，新浪也入股了。对外链没限制，外链会以蓝色文字和图片形式展示，效果也是很不错，能有效推广官网，公众号等其它企业宣发渠道。\n相较于微博，微信内容大部分以长篇图文形式展示，适合做深度内容，电商常在公众号里详细描绘产品功能，特性，使用方法，适宜人群等，但只会在微博放上几张图片或视频，外加一个购买链接。\n微博没有点击率一说，都是自动加载。点击率对微信的重要程度很高，这也是微信中盛行标题党，微博中少见的原因了。\n诱导转发区别\n微博对于诱导转发，诱导关注宽容，甚至成立个官方机构–转发抽奖平台，来保证诱导转发等活动的公开公平公正。诱导转发一直是微博上吸粉最快的方式，大量企业都采用这种方式增加粉丝，提高活跃度。\n\n副作用：放任假粉丝、广告、等诱导信息的肆无忌惮，使得微博的流量生态/风味不好，劣币驱逐良币。\n\n微博的转发率可通过两个方面来提升，内容质量和诱导转发，微信中就只剩前一条了。微信更强调互动深度，微博更强调传播链条和粉丝覆盖。\n根因分析\n对于诱导转发或关注行为的态度不同，主要因为微博和微信的盈利模式存很大差异。微博主要靠影响信息排序来盈利，微信主要靠卖广告位（朋友圈和公众号广告位）盈利。换句话说，微博不干涉甚至支持你获得粉丝，但在你给粉丝发消息的环节，会人为干扰，给了钱的用户获得消息的优先展示权；微信不干涉消息排序，都是按时间轴排序，但在最开始的品牌曝光环节进行干扰。否则，大家都靠诱导转发增加（粉丝）曝光了，广告位还有谁买？\n\n毕竟，一个信息一定能收到，一个或许被淹没。增曝光的结果可测度不同。微信也不显示转发量，来暗示你转发，都转发也不利于它卖广告。\n\n微博的内容排序干预工具\n微博主要通过热门微博，博文头条，微博会员等功能参与信息排序。\n\n\n热门微博以热度为标题进行排序，有小时榜，天榜，周榜，月榜，还可根据用户喜好划分出兴趣，娱乐，生活，本地等类别。热度值由机器计算，主要指标有转发，点赞，发布时间等，结合其它指标进行热度加权或降权。通过把控这个流量超大的热门微博栏目，实际上很大程度控制了微博用户获取信息的内容。\n\n\n博文头条能在24小时内，让你的博文出现在所有粉丝微博首页第一位，左上角会有热门标记，可增加相关博文阅读量和影响力。支付的费用和粉丝量和曝光量成正比。\n\n\n微博会员有本人主页置顶微博的特权。\n\n\n微博2020用户发展报告\n年轻化\n90，00占比近80%，80后还剩（18%）。女性用户占比越来越高，00后中，已盖过男性达到61%。\n\n50年代出生1.78亿人\n\n\n\n\n\n60\n70\n80\n90\n00\n10\n\n\n\n\n总人口\n2.37亿\n2.17亿\n2.21亿\n2.09亿\n1.63亿\n1.63亿\n\n\n微博用户占比\n1%(含50后)\n3%\n18%\n48%\n30%\n未知\n\n\n\n\n\n内容特征挖掘\n\n\n接下来进入代际特征大比拼\n80后“求知欲”最旺盛，关注大V最多，是00后的近2倍，是90后1.3倍。00后平均关注20多位明星。\n话题总榜\n\n70，80泛社会，90，00泛娱乐\n\n70后和00后，同关注高考和天问一号火星探测。除此之外，70后更关心美股暴跌，腾讯状告老干妈，马拉多纳去世。00后更喜欢创造营2020和2020KPL秋季赛，参与流行热梗。\n\n活动时段\n12点和晚上22点是微博用户的黄金冲浪时段，上班路上也是高峰，90后和00后的互动量最高。\n90后使用流行梗是80后的4倍。\n热点话题中表情包是用户最直接的表态方式。\n\n电视剧\n70后关注家庭，在意别人家的小孩\n80后更喜欢都市剧，喜欢寻找情感共鸣\n90后偏好大IP改编，鲜衣怒马快意恩仇\n00后关注写实类电视剧和流星小甜剧\n\n综艺\n00后偏爱爱豆真人秀\n90后喜欢养成类综艺\n80，70后姐姐粉，喜欢突破年龄禁锢的综艺，在各种跨度综艺中享受生活\n\n美食\n在美食上，火锅、奶茶、螺蛳粉入选00后美食榜单前三名，螺蛳粉、烤肉、酸辣粉则是90后钟爱的小吃。在年轻用户的频繁讨论和分享中，螺蛳粉迅速培养起热搜体质，以各种花式热门话题频频冲上热搜\n\n健身\n\n\n动漫\n\n\n剁手之王\n90后女生成为消费中流砥柱，赢得“剁手之王”的称号，她们通过电商小店购买的商品是清洁用品、药品，非常注重健康防护，伴随着成家立业，她们经常购买的商品还包括居家用品、床上用品、婴儿用品、蔬菜肉类，与生活息息相关\n\n万物开箱\n不管是丑东西还是雷品，都能遇到猎奇的测评er，万物皆可开箱，每天1500万人观看\n\n附录-七普部分人口数据分析\n\n老龄化\n有12个省份65+人口比重超过14%，分别是天津，黑吉辽，上海，江苏，安徽，山东，两湖，重庆，四川。\n除西藏外，全国31个省市（不含港澳台）65+全部超过7%，广东8.58算比新疆7.76号的第二名，比青海都好。\n乡村老龄人口比重比城镇更高\n受教育程度\n\n\n\n人口总计\n大专以上\n高中（含中专）\n初中\n小学\n\n\n\n\n141178\n21836\n21301\n48716\n34966\n\n\n\n\n15岁以上人口，全国平均受教育年限9.91年，大家没有特别冒尖的，前三名是北上天，分别是12.64年，11.81年，11.29年。接下来竟是广东，10.38。\n16-59岁劳动年龄人口（约为8.94亿，总人口的63.35%）平均受教育年限平均值更高些，10.75年。高中以上文化水平3.85亿（总人口4.31亿），43.79%。大专以上占比达到23.61%。\n文盲率（15岁以上）已降至2.67%，64年普查的时候，还有33.58%。\n北京大学生最多，10个里面有4.2个，上海第二梯队，3.4个\n城镇化率\n全国平均城镇化率63.89%【居住在城镇】，公安部户籍人口城镇化率45.4%，相较于2010年49.68%，2000年36.22%，前进了一大步。\n城镇化率前7名，上海（89.3%）北京（87.55%）天津（84.7%）广东（74.15%）江苏（74.44%）浙江（72.17）辽宁（72.14%），其余都在70%以下，重庆69.66%紧随其后\n人户分离人口4.93亿，总人口35%\n出生人口\n中国出生人口数据\n统计局官网是不会公布每年出生人口数量的，因为具体的数量很难精确统计，但是根据提供的年末总人口可以计算出年平均人口，然后根据出生率计算年度出生人口。\n各年度出生人口数\n二孩政策的红利于2016、2017年释放完毕后，掉头向下。2020年出生人口1200万，公安部公布为1003万，因为一些不登记，晚登记户口的，所以公安部的数据常规有偏差，且及时率在80%左右。\n原来卫生健康委公布住院分娩活体数，相对比较准，因为住院分娩率已从1996年的58.7%上升至2017年的99.9%。根据卫生计生统计数据，2016年全年住院分娩活产数为1846万人，2017年为1758万。2018年后，机构改革后承担计划生育职能的国家卫生健康委并未再专门向媒体发布全年住院分娩活产数，而是采用国家统计局的数据。不过，在《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》中，2018年全国住院分娩活产数(包括户籍和非户籍)显示为1521万，2019年为1455万，与统计局数据相差不大。\n\n有人诟病统计局常规是抽样调查，所以不准，但现在的年代，合并职能后用住院分娩数就已经差不多。\n\n2020年完成户口登记的新生儿数量较2019年少了175.5万\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"心力发展与组织塑造","url":"/%E5%BF%83%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0.html","content":"\n领导者心力发展的五个阶梯\n用己之力-勇气\n勇气之上是正能量，勇气之下是负能量。勇气能让你成为公司的核心骨干，你才具备成为英雄的一个最基本能力。什么叫英雄？英是聪慧过人，雄就是有胆识。当你有一定的智慧，又有一定胆识的时候，你就可能成为英雄。\n英雄最大的特点是用己之力，靠自己的胆识和智慧去创造价值，但英雄的心智不一定足够成熟。\n用人之力\n晋升到技术管理者时，仅仅用己之力是不够的。用人之力是科学管理理念最好的一种体现。\n用人之智\n\n从管理者晋升到领导者，要迈过一个巨大的鸿沟，因为要跨越两个维度，第一要跨越卓越这条线，第二要跨越成熟这条线。之后你会进到一个新的空间。\n领导者的核心叫做用人之智，要用那些能力比自己强的人，比你有个性，工资比你高的人，能弥补自己短板的人。你能不能做到引领和包容，做不到你就成不了一个优秀的领导者。\n推动你走向这个位置的思想是价值思维，从全局出发去看问题，要考虑整个组织价值最大化，而不是成本最优。我可以请比我收入高的人，但可解决我解决不了的问题，局部看付出代价大，整体看他帮你创造了更大的组织价值。\n用人之心\n做大做强易，做持久难，基业长青，不仅需要员工出力，出智慧，还需带领员工跟你心在一起，企业领袖可做到用人之心，这是一个更高的境界，领导者，尤其是创始人，一名技术领导者，CTO也一样，主要看的是技术人员的心有没有跟你在一起。\n\n换种说法愿不愿意跟你干，对你仰慕不仰慕，对你的管理和塑造的文化服不服，满意不满意。搞一大堆书面词，说都说不明白。\n如烹小鲜，天下熙熙，皆为利往，把利这个东西落到实处。\n\n用人之愿\n再往上发展就是精神领袖，这是更高的境界，把企业愿景和个人发展的愿景融为一体，我中有你，你中有我，同心同德同进同退。\n\n民族复兴，行业发展，针对的是驾驭高端人才\n\n心力修炼\n让别人感受到动力，不是要求别人行为发生改变就可以，这个动力是要求自己改变，通过自己的沟通，通过自己的思想，通过自己的行为，让对方感受到我（领导者）的这种力量，传递到他们身上就会形成他的自驱力。\n\n\n真诚欣赏：表扬要具体有细节，当然人分不同类型。有的人心智模型是包容型的，需要一对一的关怀和表扬；有的人性格是卓越型的，他需要的是公开的表扬，因此要学会了解不同的内心需求，区分真诚对待。\n共同利益\n包容归属和信守承诺\n直面乐观和100%投入：没有悲观的权利，不管遇到多大的困境和挑战，都必须保有信心，在所有纷繁复杂的问题中选一个出来，然后百分百解决它，把它搞定，团队的士气和信心就会被提升起来。\n理性处理\n指令清晰\n\n员工动力系统与组织塑造\n\n\n价值认同\n\n\n包容归属\n\n\n学习成长，充满希望\n\n\n管理拆开来说，管人+理事，理事就离不开工作分解，也是达成一个目标的路径能力。管人是洞察人心，拿捏人性。人性复杂，但简单来说就是趋利避害，也是同理心和换位思考能力的驱动要求。满足人性很简单：赚钱分钱，让你值钱。\n与之呼应的员工槽点\n员工的槽点一般集中在三处：工作意义，工作环境，个人价值成长。工作环境这个有必要做些外延，除了物理硬环境，氛围文化软环境更为重要。这些槽点摇身一变同样是激励驱动因子。\n最能激励员工的因素\n是否感受到上司真正关心自己的发展和利益\n肩并肩，不要面对面\n跟自己的团队成员站在一起，跟他一个视角去看问题，不要形成对抗和冲突，冲突会极大地消耗组织的精力和能力，跟员工并肩作战是非常重要的一种心态或一种方式。\nZ世代确有不同\n现在多数是90后居多，00后也开始进入职场。90后在马斯洛需求理论中，需求层级是高维的。90后出生就未经历贫穷，他们的需求是爱，尊重和自我实现。做事时赋予意义是至关重要的。\n计划设定-让事情发生的能力\n\n专业设计，把做这个事情的专业能力设计出来\n组织设计，关键岗位的人员和能力支撑你去完成你的设计\n沟通设计，利益相关者，高层抑或是底层员工，用不同的方式讲清楚你要干什么，给他们塑造意义\n\n在一个专业公司做成一个事情，能把项目或组织目标按上面的维度分解，是简洁清晰的，故收录记下\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队"]},{"title":"悦己觉醒","url":"/%E6%82%A6%E5%B7%B1%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92.html","content":"\n悦己觉醒\n提悦己消费就不得不提到某个对立面词汇「舔狗经济」，舔狗经济大白话说，为了讨好喜欢的人而产生的消费经济。也可以说荷尔蒙经济。\n之前有一个有趣现象，每到情人节和 520，总能在二手平台看到大量『舔狗礼物』，如全新 IPhone，未拆封的口红套装，高档包包，这些东西背后，往往有一段「舔狗故事」。而到了近几年，舔狗经济有式微的趋势，**25 年新华社 App 也发了文章《“舔狗经济”退烧，拒绝PUA》，这明显是配合生育率压力的宣传。**棋局形势有变，棋子的使用方式应有所变化，宣发就自然配合。\n\n舔狗这样说：不敢聊，一聊她就肚子饿了，手机屏碎了，香水没了，粉底液没了，生日到了，房租到期了，好像我给她聊的家徒四壁一样！\n\n节日太多，舔狗舔不动了；腰包瘪了，舔狗没钱舔。年轻人都在卷，焦虑烧光了情欲，少年心事重重，哪有心情玩舔狗这档子事。除开消费，也体现在婚恋观念上，中国结婚率持续走低，年轻人对婚姻的热情在降温，单身挺好的，钱花在自己身上， 开心又自在。\n舔狗经济失灵，是社会观念觉醒，消费理性回归，个体价值重塑与媒介环境净化的综合体现。越来越多人开始关注自我成长和内心需求，不再愿意为了迎合他人而牺牲自我尊严和利益，更加注重自我价值实现和内心满足感的获得。\n\n回首历史\n大洋对岸渡过上世纪70年代滞涨期后，从 80 年代起，美利坚各大媒体和电视台就开始疯狂宣传消费主义：女人就应该漂漂亮亮的，投资自己；男人就应该开好车，戴一块有品味的表。把各种消费行为融进电影中，潜移默化改变民众的认知，通过持续洗脑，漂亮国的民众们渐渐从爱储蓄变成了爱消费。\n同样的套路在中国上演，但有不同的是，我们国内的男性似乎在消费领域相当理智，面对这种特殊的国情，资本只能改变策略，主攻女性市场。从 2010 年开始，所有的节日都成了消费的由头，更凭空出现了许多以前从未有过的节日，白色情人节，3.7 女神节，520 节，更荒唐的还有秋天的第一杯奶茶等。\n女性收入整体偏低些，兜里收割的有限，资本曲线救国，通过女性来收割男性，例如男人就该赚钱养家，女人只需负责貌美如花；爱她就应该把卡给她刷；给女生买礼物是基本项，而不是加分项；家是讲爱的地方，不是讲理的地方；这些言论目的两个发力方向：\n\n利用女性更感性这一特点，让她们觉得花钱是天经地义的事，花男人的钱更是天经地义的事，你既然爱我，给我花钱不是应该的吗\n通过道德绑架，让男性也觉得应该给女性花钱。对于硬骨头男性，资本搬出男性比女性多 3000 万这事，告诉你男性本来就卷，那不活该单身吗。把不会提供情绪价值的男性叫直男，把不送礼不转账的男性叫穷屌丝。别人能给的你给不了，那你就处于了弱势。\n\n达到了这两大目的，一个完美收割闭环就完成了。最疯狂的那几年，朋友圈非常流行晒转账，各种 5201314，清空购物车。\n贬低与捧杀\n除了贬低男性，对女性的捧杀也同时在进行。老一辈人普遍不愿意欠人东西，无功不受禄，这才是正确价值观。而今他们把普通女孩子称作小仙女，称作小主，普通男性则成为穷屌丝。毫无逻辑的拉踩行为把原来处于同一水平的两个人，拉到堪比主仆的位置上，这样收钱也心安理得。\n没有公主的命，却落下了一身公主的病。在择偶的时候也总觉得别人都配不上自己，只有出手阔绰的公子哥才入得了自己的法眼，但公子哥只会租赁女性，他们确实会送礼物，更会提供情绪价值，还会表现的非常尊重女性，但他们没想着跟她们结婚。被租赁过的女性觉得自己被金钥匙开过，那自己就是一把金锁了，往后再择偶时，标准会不自觉升高，连带她的闺蜜也升高标准，毕竟闺蜜间也要攀比。\n\n男性在进化过程中是猎人，他们的目标是更大的猎物（放到现代就换成了赚更多钱、更高的职位），然后带回家。男性天生不具有给别人创造情绪价值的能力，除非花费精力培养和训练。\n男人的大部分能量交给了生存和斗争，所以和女人相处时更倾向于尽量减少麻烦，二次元也是这样一种体现。男性大多数不会喜欢有个性的女主，就像多数男性喜欢宝钗而不是黛玉，因为林代表更多的麻烦和损耗，薛代表了帮你解决麻烦。\n\n城市化+经济地位提升，获得与男性竞争同样的地位和水平，合力催化使得单身女性越来越多，单身人群中求偶意愿却女性高过男性，相亲角都是女性。资本不会报道这样的消息。因为这种消息只会加速舔狗经济的消亡，从而影响资本的收益。\n\n实际上女人是吸引来的，不是追求来的。你自己过得越好，对方会觉得靠近你也会过得好。\n钱这种东西是花给孩子和孩子的妈的，不是花给女朋友的。\n\n观念转型与个体价值崛起\n独立性与自我实现：00 后更注重个人成长和生活质量，婚姻和生育不再是人生必选项。上海的调查中，57.44%的未婚未恋青年对恋爱『不感兴趣』，更追求精神自由。00 后生长在全球化和信息化的时代，获取知识途径多样化，对世界的认知和视野更为广阔（包括世界各地婚姻模式），社交网络的普及让大家更易于产生同好群体的链接，更易形成小群体的支持。\n大家都更关注自我价值的实现，会思考，更多想的是我怎么想的，为我而活，思考出发点是能带给我什么？新生代除了工作和吃饭，倾注在个人爱好上的时间很多。面对恋爱，时常会发出灵魂一问：是手机不好玩吗，为什么要去谈恋爱呢?\n婚姻自由\n舔狗经济崩盘的底层是传统婚姻制度面临瓦解。但也没有必要“从此不相信爱情了”，就算人人刷手机的今天，依旧有人捧着纸质书来读。\n这一切背后，其实反映了社会的深刻变化，结婚生子不再是年轻人必然的选择，近两年结婚人数断崖式下跌，24 年前三季度，全国结婚登记数量 474 万对，创下近 40 年新低，晚婚甚至不婚以成为普遍现象。\n年轻人对婚恋的态度发生了改变，加之就业压力，房价高企，与其把钱花在『追求别人』上，不如多投资自己。这背后是既是消费观念的转变，也是社会文化变化的缩影，是社会观念的一次转型。以前，男追女是天经地义，而现在，年轻人越来越务实，逐渐意识到，感情不是靠砸钱就能换来的。不再盲目追求仪式感，而是更注重实际的幸福感。这一切算是健康恋爱观和消费观的再度弘扬。\n你这一生的第一使命就是让自己幸福，积极健康的恋爱关系也应该如此。\n新生代的压力\n\n社会的发展给大家提供了更多的选择和自由，但也带来了前所未有的竞争和压力。前几代人对婚育的观念，深受传统文化影响，不仅是个人选择，更是家族的延续。\n\n00 后00 后从小就被寄予厚望，父母期待他们通过努力实现阶层跃升，高考，升学，就业，每步都充满了激烈的竞争和较量。父母为孩子的教育和未来投入了大量的时间、精力和金钱，反过来也带来了巨大的精神压力。\n动物在条件不好的时候，只迁徙不生育，是动物界的规律。我们今天的环境不足以让大家觉得生育对我来讲是有意义的，是我们的环境变了，不是人变了。迁徙是逃避，生育是留守。在重压下逃避是更容易的选择，如果大家不愿留守，只说明我们要改变环境，让孩子们重拾信心，人口学就是一切。\n婚恋市场金钱化\n国内充满了资本主义的生活方式和思维逻辑，传统男欢女爱被腐蚀侵袭也是很自然的事情。改开发展取得了巨大成就，财富获得空前增长，但有利就有弊，由此带来的亲情感情爱情物质化显而易见。\n舔狗背后的经济逻辑是通过某人追求自己换取经济利益，将荷尔蒙和传宗接代拿来讨价还价甚至是生财之道。贫富差距不断拉大的现实促进如今婚恋市场过度金钱化，每个人都身在其中，却又无法改变。富人希望强强联合不吃亏，穷人希望狠狠赚上一笔，或者空手套白狼，实在不行就躺平。背后都是人性，利益和交换。\n这些会导致一些年轻人结不起婚，直到财富不断集中到极少数富人手中，穷人则被迫从肉体上消失，加上人工智能的发展和普及，最终这个世界变成少数有钱人的伊甸园，也绝不是危言耸听。\n结构性失衡\n类比结构性粮荒：通常是短缺引发恐慌屯粮，不良商家哄抬粮价，直到 20%买不起粮食的人饿死，从而达到供需新平衡。如今婚恋市场被同一逻辑支配，基本面是男多女少，且媒体持续渲染，恐慌传递导致雄竞加剧，彩礼车房压力，很多男性望而却步，资源短缺催生行为扭曲，捞女横行，同时极端女权鼓吹激化男女对立。\n结果部分男性主动去责任化，或在雄竞失败后被动放弃，同样部分女性也如此，就如大龄慕强投机女，溢价泡沫破裂后滞销，虽然男女比例还是失衡，但每个代际都有主动或被动退出的人，如经历一场粮荒后达到新的平衡。\n未来是会演进成老死不相往来的日服，还是极度利己绝对平等的韩服，亦或是非婚共生的北欧服，并不知道，因为中国向来走自己的特殊化因地制宜道路，一切有待观察。\n发散一下\n卡死性资源\n性资源的稀缺性是如何影响社会的？你要获得性资源，只有一个合法途径，那就是结婚，结婚你就要买房子，这样就会拉动消费，带动社会经济。\n扫黄不仅仅是道德问题，而是一场利益博弈，背后也是对性资源的控制战，根本目的就是让性这种资源变得不易获得，至少对普通人而言不易获得（嫖娼被严厉打击，保养却被容忍）。对中国这个国情和传统，性资源供给稀缺，尤其对普通年轻男性，需求极大，能享受到的人极少。保持性资源的稀缺，才能让你去奋斗，让驴拉磨时前面总要挂个胡萝卜一样。如果色情产业也合法了，很多人真的不会选择去努力工作(不高的费用就可以满足核心需求，还可以随意更换技师，这样普通的工薪阶层都能满足需求，那样谁还会为了生活拼命工作呢？谁还会内卷)。这年头，要是你真打定主义不结婚不买房真不需要多拼命，而包养小姑娘的人本来也不需要你去整天敦促他去奋斗赚钱。\n一千个失足女搞不好都可以搞崩一个小城市的房地产，这绝对是不可接受的。多对一的服务模式，会迅速扩大市场供给，影响全社会的性资源供需平衡，包养是 1 对1的服务模式，不会对整个市场造成重大影响。\n\n一个失足女性一天内最多可接待 20-30 名客户，假设每天工作 8 小时，只接待 8 位客户，一周工作 5 天，一个月 22 天则一个月就可以提供 176 次服务，1w 名则可提供 176w 次服务，可覆盖上百万男性的需求（足以让一个普通三线城市的大部分劳动力失去斗志，甚至拖垮地方经济）\n\n如果不扫黄，可能就不会存在天价彩礼。彩礼高的问题难以解决，根源也在性资源的供需失衡，甚至也是阳谋的一部分，避免一般年轻人轻易满足而选择躺平，从而影响整个社会的活力，而富人对彩礼问题并不在乎。\n底层男性是不是资源？是不是有人力资源，自带干粮修长城的人，在秦始皇眼里是不是资源，是！\n女性的自我物化\n性资源这一词从内因上讲来自于女性的自我物化，从古至今全世界普遍都是，只有少部分女性在权钱威胁下宁死不屈。\n\n古代女性没有自我物化的条件和选择，她们一般是被上位者物化的，所以批评古代青楼没问题。\n但现在的风俗产业呢？包括上门按摩，现代具有青楼属性的女子，即使有不得已的原因，大部分也是自愿去的，大多数是自我物化，自己明码标价，待价而沽的。在感受到个人奋斗很辛苦后，相当一部分女性会选择出卖性资源来获取生存和利益，是两害相权取其轻，也是物质主义的一个表现。\n\n爱的淡化和稀释，是男女共同作用的。女性会普遍跟随从雄竞中成功出来的男性，而实际上好老公不一定符合物质化的标准，而男性要在这样剧烈的社会达尔文环境中脱颖而出，只能变得冷血残酷，否则几乎不可能成功和掌控资源。女性屈服于资源和权钱，同样是爱小于物的表现。男女都一样现实。\n性操控与ED\n生活里的一切都和性有关， 除了性本身，性更关乎权力。你做很多事情，往细里看，都是在追求一个多巴胺刺激，性本身里面还混杂着占有，臣服，操控等，确实还有些权力的意味。本质上，性和武器，金钱，权力一样，都是一种掣肘别人，拿捏别人的利器。\n\n一个绝色美女，她的姿色，对大多数男人来讲就是一把夺命刀。本质上就是一种能玩精神操控的权力，可杀人于无形。只要一个男人没有 ED，那他就身处这种权力的辐射范围，始终受制于这种脑控。\n倒转过来也一样成立，男 Idol 的核武器是什么，本质上就是在供应一种性幻想。\n\n我们反过来想，假设一个男人现在 ED 了，充血少年开始支棱不起来了，看上去立地成佛了，也可以理解是脱敏了，解放了，人生搞不好别有洞天了。本来拿捏你的那股无形权力，现在威胁不到你了，框不住你了，塞翁失马，你反而获得了另一种意义上的解放和自由。你的闲者时间，那种松弛和平静，是不是非常超脱，这玩意比多巴胺脉冲，更高级。当然这违背了雄性生物学的意义，所谓死道友，无死贫道，ED 只能是失意中年男人的一种福报。\n\n在华尔街之狼里教了一个成事狠招，为了让你保持头脑清醒，思路清晰，建议你每天释放一下，而且是 twice，很极端。相当于人为制造了一场间歇性 ED，从浴壑难填直接挥刀变成六根清净。话虽粗俗，但本质上是在聊一种屏蔽力，跟闭关更容易修行差不多一个意思，有奇效。\n这种世界上很多事情正着看是诅咒，反过来看，它可能成为一种福报。\n\n婚姻的意义\n父母得以喘息\n婚姻可以让父母得以解脱，跟子女一起，她那么大了永远当孩子，让父母有种绑定的感觉，让父母的生命无法喘息。父母也先是自己，再是别的角色。不要把亲子关系脱离人性美化了。\n如果孩子很自立，自给自足，生活开心。你做父母的还焦虑，那就是被传统思想和社会舆论影响了。\n养育的神经递质\n多巴胺更多是一种兴奋剂（兴奋过后就会产生空虚烦躁这类负面情绪）。真正和幸福相关的神经递质是 内啡肽和催产素。这两种都不是容易获得的。\n\n对于常人来说，内啡肽获得需要经过压力、痛苦、困难、成就感才能主动分泌产生\n催产素则需要亲子配偶之间的亲密关系才能促进分泌。\n\n养育过程中肯定是困难重重的，但是这也正是内啡肽分泌的主要条件，而养育过程中培养出的良好的亲子关系则是催产素分泌的条件。男性的劳动参与程度更高，有时候还可以靠事业的成功来获得一些内啡肽，女性的幸福感大部分还是来自于育儿过程，这本就是自然规律。\n亲密关系的人生作用\n人类是群居动物，与人要有链接。有一天你会发现人生到了一定节点后，不仅没有方向，也没有重点和支点，也就是这个世界不需要你，你也没有什么值得操心的事了，你茕($q\\acute{i}ong$)茕孑($j\\acute{i}e$)立自己一个人在这个世界上，生也好，死也好，没人在乎，会觉得特别孤独，要找寻价值感，另外也会有性的生理需求，解决这些个问题有多种办法：\n\n你可以很有钱买体验，买服务，买东西，用钱充实投资自己。\n你若是个企业家，也不会孤独或缺少价值，也有成长，性资源也不缺。\n\n但普通人成为特蕾莎修女或成为企业家都很难，婚姻生子是最容易解决这些问题的方法，亲密关系是一个很好的自我成长过程，这个叫做镜中我，亲密关系中的冲突解决帮助我们改进我们自己，养育孩子不是单向的给予，是生命与生命的相互淬炼。看似被消耗的光阴，实际上我们以最隐秘的方式参与着宇宙的自我认知，人类对存在的追问在新的瞳孔中获得新生。单身也很好，但如果你想更丰富的体验，此为一个普通人最容易参与的方案。\n参考\n1.网易 舔狗经济崩盘”，底层其实是婚姻制度崩盘 ↩2.观察者网 晚婚市镇乡差异 ↩","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"情商这玩意","url":"/%E6%83%85%E5%95%86%E8%BF%99%E7%8E%A9%E6%84%8F.html","content":"\n此文来自一次培训，觉得京东大学的讲师还是把知识串接的挺棒的，不光有理论，还有自己的真实经验，且没有保留，多少改变了我对情商的认识或建立了我对情商的认识。\n转移到情商的定义上来：来自亚里士多德的观点，每个人都会发脾气，这非常容易，但是把脾气发在对的人身上，用对的程度在对的时间，为了对的目的，运用对的方法，却不容易。\n\nAnyone can be angry,that is easy.But to be angry with the right person to the right degree at the right time, for the right purpose and in the right way, that is not easy\n\n情绪绑架你躲不开\n道理谁都懂，可就是办不到。这过程中，你就是与你的原始大脑对抗不过\n\n理性脑与情绪脑的脱离，200w年的大脑和5000w年的大脑部分达不成一致，所以人痛苦。人再经过5000w年，三脑可以合一，反应都达到毫秒级 (一亿年的脑干和5000w年的中脑已经可以认为已合并)\n\n\n情绪的反应是毫秒级-微表情的反应是毫秒级，它会泄露你的秘密，故才有测谎仪，才有《FBI教你读心术》这本书。只有高手才能转移微表情，通过训练，转移到没那么容易观察到的角落。例如你内向不适合当众讲话，会紧张脸红，可以转移这些微表情到到捏拳头，若还容易被察觉，可以转移到脚趾头抓地。\n2秒钟左右大脑皮层(理性大脑)产生干预。大脑皮层有反应到情商起作用，要6秒钟时间，这比2秒的干预启动还要慢些。还有一个60秒圣境（我当前的60秒圣境是与家人在游轮上），能让你平静调整到最美好的心态来处理事情，这时你最聪明。\n情商启动时间在秒级，所以你不可能控制情绪，只能察觉，理解和管理。我们讨论情商的最终目的，也是想发挥情商的最大作用【不后悔或洋洋得意】\n带情绪说话和不带情绪，能量差24倍。\n1112，1718岁最容易出现情绪绑架，可能在激素的作用或大脑快速发育过程中，理性脑和情绪脑产生脱离，pheromone真的很厉害。\n发散谈一下，在教育小孩过程中，要多做延迟满足训练。这样的小孩儿长大后能更好的应对复杂情况的能力。【每天目击那么多宠爱，这恶习肿么破】\n大脑最高级的功能，乃白日梦也\n大脑有三大功能，记忆(最初级)，思考，想象(白日梦，最有价值的模块)，当前第六代时间管理已推崇更多时间到想象，清空大脑是第一步。\n带团队过程中把大家的想象调动起来，这种力量最有用。放松的时候最利于想象，深圳有午休的习惯，故利于想象创新。而京东的同事也不午休，太紧张，只能做安全不出错的事情。\n通过想象(视觉化训练)把未知的领域拉进自己的范畴。在体育领域最常用明显，想象自己要学的新动作。未知的自己也是自己，就像你去面试时能看到某些年轻人后续的发展可能一样(可能会像自己公司的某位同事，但被面试者认识不到)\nSelf_Talk 实际日常中的理论体现\n正常人一天给自己说4000句，自我对话。希望能整理出10句对自己最有用或常用的self talk，救命时用的。\n一天 = 一生，先要察觉到自己每天的4000句都是些什么。\n万达主题乐园的领到4000元月薪的一线员工，有客户对其服务反馈时，是会真诚的笑的，而不是职业的笑。然而迪斯尼的员工不关心客户的考评，而是真诚的喜欢这份工作，但他们的薪水是1w块的。\n曾经做了一首歌让新员工每天唱，这也是一种形式的self talk，对人来进行筛选(初期这个歌曲产品的预期有效期是半年，也就是半年能完成人员淘汰筛选)。这就像常听歌，某些歌词能让你发生变化一样。\n软化自己的壳儿\n已知的自己和未知的自己之间有一个硬硬的壳儿，你甚至可以只向自己提难题但不思考回答。类似于向潜意识的自己(未知的自己)提问和学习，反正已知的自己是解决不了，何必费劲，潜意识的自己你能帮我解决就解决。\n你能利用自己的潜意识或团队的潜意识来解决复杂的问题吗？睡觉刚起来的时候，这个壳儿可能最软，存在于一个坚硬的自己将要回来接管的这么一个时刻。\n放松冥想，让潜意识的自己找到答案。情绪是一种强大的能量。\n与世界的四种认知关系\n\n\n我是世界的中心(自信)，我是世界的边缘(自卑)，我在世界之外(跳出画面来看)，我无处不在(瞬移)。\n\n大部分人在一二状态中间反复流转，完成碌碌无为的download的人生。\n好有意思的四维说法，我在世界之外，我无处不在。（当时讲师的说法并没有照搬网上的拗口的我中我，你中我等说法，是一种认真的面向主题和受众的姿态，所以我才觉得此次培训印象深刻吧）\n结语\n课堂上听到薇姐的一句self_talk, 颇为欣赏，正能量美好无比：\n\n我们的征程是星辰大海。\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理","软技能"]},{"title":"我们到底知道多少之意念的力量","url":"/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html","content":"\nWater is the most reciptive of the four elements，perhaps it would response to non-phicial events. A true experiment is taken like this. Print out the words of good meaning such as &quot;love&quot;, bad meaning words such as &quot;kill&quot;, separately tape them to bottles of distilled water and let them out overnight. when photo the water molecules（分子） of these two bottles, they appear very diffent Image, the water molecules with good words are symmetry, beautiful, but the other is ugly and horrible. Thought or intent becomes the driving force in all of this. The science of how that actually affects the molecules is unknown, except to the water molecules, of courese. And it&#x27;s really fascinating when you keep in mind that 90% of our bodies are water. It thoughts can do that to water, imaging thought can do what to us!\n\n以上的一段，来自于大概7年前（2007），当在观看纪录片&lt;我们到底知道多少时&gt;受触动改述的一段来自水分子的思维实验。曾几何时，还想用在找工作的英文自我介绍时，当时写了个不完整版。今天我看到那份缺少词汇不太连贯的草稿时，索性就把它完成了。草稿也可以扔掉了，再也没有保存的意义。\n思维的力量，在毕业时刻左右，曾是自己的信念基石之一，用以自我说服，非邪恶的信念，对于个体的生活坚挺是非常有意义的\n就算是现在写完的这段，随着英语的生疏，不免有语法错误，句病，也不太所谓了。看到草稿时，还惊奇7年前的自己还用了一些复杂的衔接连贯与介词短语+进行时的语法，呵呵，让我再来一遍，恐怕都不敢耍了吧，：）\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"我所理解的生活","url":"/%E6%88%91%E6%89%80%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB.html","content":"\n\n摘录改写自韩寒的博客文章《我所理解的生活》\n\n我所理解的生活，它不是攀爬高山，也不是深潜海沟，而是做着自己喜欢的事情，并能养活自己，养活家人。\n不觉得留有遗憾是一种缺憾美，相比之下，干砸了倒是一种美。每个人喜欢的事情，肯定不止一两件，只是有些做的不够好，有些做得很失败。和朋友聊天时，你可以直接说，这事我特喜欢，也干过，但我真的不合适，丢人了。\n完全可以嗤鼻于说要是我去干这事一定比某某好的人，在台面上见过我成功一次，那么在台面下我就干砸过十次。\n当你决定喜欢干，那么就信奉下一句：干砸不可怕，又没死，不停的干就行了，因为人们只会记住你成功的那一次。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"扒家底看大佬发展","url":"/%E6%89%92%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%95%E7%9C%8B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95.html","content":"\n出身草根的大佬占比并不高，就像2000年来泥腿子当皇帝的就两个，汉与明。两个都还出在特定的知识分子庙堂无出路的年代。除了卵巢彩票，一个普通人最大的机遇在于婚姻，上大学提供的跃迁其实都不及婚姻大。\n\n骆驼成功穿越沙漠，成为野外生存专家，讲了很多技能，又强调说坚持和努力更重要（这些都对），就是不说自己有驼峰，所有的成功的秘诀都是很难复制的，也不会外传\n\n扒了一下企业界大佬们的情况，发现祖传的天分，几代人的经验积累，耳濡目染的传承（素质、资源或成长条件），远超寻常农民子弟的成功几率，能更早更充分具有超越一般人的从商的意愿、见识，办事的能力。\n\n王石年轻时参军，上大学，找工作和创业，都离不开家里的背景；柳传志的父亲在他早期或者联想早期发展过程中都起了不小的作用；\n周鸿祎王兴都是中国第一批用上电脑和互联网的人，雷军可从村办小学转到县城名校，张一鸣从小听父母讨论各种科研，发明；马化腾14岁就可以买天文望远镜；冯仑从小就能看到图书馆大量的书，包括“仅供内幕批判”的读物，都离不开家庭条件的支撑。\n更何况，每天饭桌上的交谈，待人接物的言传身教，不同家庭不啻天壤之别。精英家庭讨论国家政策对家庭的什么利好时，农村家庭可能又在讨论家里的老母猪又生了一窝，孩子每天要早起一小时多打一篮猪草回来。\n\n当然事情并不绝对，李彦宏，俞敏洪，张小龙，王传福等人的成功，也证实，天道不绝，终留一线。\n\n不要抱怨祖辈没给自己一个好出身，不如自己奋斗，给孩子一个好出身。\n上层精英\n政界&amp;国企领导干部\n王石\n父亲王辉是大别山老红军，王震下属，母亲是45年参加革命的东北锡伯人。解放后，父亲官居郑州铁路局副局长，母亲是郑州火车站副站长，前岳父王宁是广东省委副书记（历任广东省公安厅厅长，政法委主任，省省顾委主任等）\n柳传志\n父亲柳谷书解放前是上海金融系统地下工作者，解放后曾参与中国人民银行筹建工作，后来在中侨委，贸促会等部门任职，退休后派驻贸促会香港公司负责人。是新中国第2号律师证持有人和中国知识产权事业的开创者，当然近年爆发联想贸工技和流失国有资产争论后，也有人扒其更久的祖上就是买办阶层干下不少难以难说和证实的勾当\n任正非\n父亲任摩逊虽只是中学校长，退休前是都匀市政协副主席，这不重要，其岳父才关键。其前岳父是四川省副省长，后来任成为深圳南海石油集团下属的一家电子公司的经理，在之前孟军已成为了深圳南海石油集团的一名高管。\n\n孟晚舟的母亲孟军其实也一直旅居加拿大\n\n只是碰到造成公司损失200w，任老被南海石油集团开除，孟军也与他离婚（二任妻子是其秘书）。从哪跌倒从哪爬起，创立华为，代理销售交换机，华为的早期成功相信也少不了助力。\n王健林\n父亲 王义全 参加过长征 、抗日战争 、解放战争 ，曾官至西藏自治区副主席、四川省委组织部副部长。岳父林连章参加革命比他父亲还早一年，也是老革命，职位也是很好。\n马化腾\n父亲马陈术退休后（准确说是下海创业）是深圳盐田港集团董事，副总经理。之前本身就是中国电子商务部下面电子商务中心一个二级公司的财务总负责人，开奔驰600给小马做财务。小时候马在海南生活较长一段时间（出生于海南东方市八所港，出生前一个月林彪叛国坠机），大学又赶上89学潮，本来的可上清华或复旦的高分，在父母的担忧下都留在了深圳这块土地–深圳大学。造成了深圳大学最好的一届生源。\n\n八所港是海南岛最西端，居民以苗族为主，小城里很多人脸上刺青，背着硕大的竹箩，蹲在滴雨的屋檐下，南中国海海港夜空特别清澈，繁星如织，能勾起人们无穷好奇与想象，使人们深感自身的渺小。在海南的童年生活必然深深影响了马化腾的性格，包括爱天文的爱好。\n\n慧多网（FidoNet）的“马站”是较豪华的，4条电话线，8台电脑，同时可接受4位用户的传送申请，当时电话初装费是很贵的，8000元一架，其姐姐在电话公司，申请了半价优惠，整体还是花了近5万元，将其出售股票行情软件的钱都花了进去。\n\n在马站长等人的推动下，96年初求伯君在珠海架起了“西线”站点，5月雷军在北京创建了“西点”站点。\n\n\n最早开发了通过寻呼机接收电波里股票行情，并用单板机实现转码通过串口接到电脑上去，称为“股霸卡”，标价8000，最后降到4000，成本是1000，在华强北卖掉几十套，赚了一点钱。\n\n经济背景\n曹德旺\n曾祖父是地方首富，父亲是在海外赚了大钱的归侨，三四十年代就在上海开夜总会和（永安）百货公司，母亲是一个地主的小女儿。不过解放前返回福建老家时，人安全回去了，一船的财产不见了。父亲跑路去上海留下母亲一个人带几个孩子。\n后来父亲也回来了，父子俩搞投机倒把赚了一些钱，在改革开放之初靠倒卖木耳已积攒6w块，但那时候不是你想干啥就干啥，他深知只能做政府允许做的事情，那就是想办工厂，但私人不能开厂。曹就帮政府办厂，自己干自己擅长的采购，做了水表玻璃厂，很会来事很会搞交际。\n后来厂子不行了，就拍胸脯承包，不管盈亏，给政府每年交6w块钱。业务不断扩展时，跑业务知道汽车玻璃当时巨贵巨赚钱，可能200块钱的本卖4000，这就下定决定技术攻关，花2w块钱买淘汰的旧图纸，找不到解决方案就一直开会不让走。\n功夫不负有心人，生产投放市场了，200块的成本卖1000，一下把日本人的玻璃市场慢慢干趴了，搭上了汽车高速增长的国内市场，也做到了不被外国人卡脖子，这点上其功不可没。\n黄光裕\n祖父是大地主，外祖父家族是泰国著名侨商，母亲家里有制油作坊，经常给黄光裕兄弟讲祖辈如何经商致富的故事。\n王兴\n祖父是福建龙岩二中教导主任，龙岩市歌舞团编剧，但文革期间受迫害自杀。祖母是厦门大学经济系毕业生，师从著名经济学家王亚南（厦大校长，《资本论》中文版译者）\n父亲王苗是龙岩市水泥大王，亿万富翁。其本人也不纨绔，清华毕业。\n文化跨界\n马云\n父亲马来法是浙江省曲艺家协会主席，母亲崔文彩是评弹演员，虽然父亲行政级别只在正处副厅之间，但曲协主席这个位子在浙江省文化界举足轻重，也能接触到地方上政商两届高层人士。不可否认马云的能力，但在读书的时间段能2年杭州市学联主席完全无力量加持也不一定。后来又拿外经贸部的offer，借部里平台开发外经贸部官方网站，网上中国商品交易市场，后来的掘金过程也是有目共睹。\n\n赵本山独霸春晚十余载，用只在辽宁曲协混个副主席。所以你说这不算个啥真说不过去。关晓彤是曾任北京曲协主席关学曾的孙女，还那么多人捧呢。\n\n马云家里的领导家庭出身中医家庭，岳父后升任地级市区级医院院长，但网上传说其舅舅曾身处本省高位，难以求实，权当一个看资吧。以马云的过人表达能力加上亲爹的加持，就足以开闯一番事业了\n一般精英\n公务员\n丁磊\n父亲是一位宁波科研机构工程师，受父亲影响，从小就喜欢无线电，出生于蒋介石的家乡，留存着大量传统乡绅文化和新儒家精神的痕迹。“不以物喜不以己悲”，“君子坦荡荡，小人长戚戚”是父母常对丁磊说的话。89年考进电子科技大，与马化腾是同年生人也是同级。毕业后进入宁波市电信局，是慧多网前100名用户之一，只是没像马化腾一样开设自己的（深圳）站点，而是利用电信局免费的线路资源，成为一个“中继器”，帮各地网游交换信包，在那时，知道了深圳的马化腾，95年无法忍受平淡乏味的生活，“开除自己”去了南方，拜访了几位网上已十分熟捻却从未见面的网友，看看他们到底长什么样，有什么稀奇的想法。在深圳，遇到了同样焦躁没有方向的小马站长。\n95年5月先加入sybase广州，成为技术支持工程师，一年后跳到一家叫飞捷的ISP，用火鸟程序搭了一个BBS系统，告别了相对小众的惠多网。96年注意到免费电邮系统hotmail被微软以4亿美元收购，意识到电子邮箱是一个前途无量的基础服务，拿出50万积蓄，注册了有3名员工的网易公司，与华南理工大二学生陈磊华一起，开发出了第一套中文免费电子邮箱系统，成了第一个赚到真金白银的互联网界创业者。用119万的价格卖给了广州电信旗下的飞华网，后来各地电信公司开办的“信息港”，纷纷向他采购，每套10w美金，很快丁三石就成了百万富翁。\n张朝阳\n64年陕西临潼人，比马云小一个多月，父母都是上世纪5，60年代的老牌大学生（多少人的爷爷辈或爷爷的父辈都是文盲），父亲是某医院的副院长，母亲是儿科医生，从小家庭算是优渥，从小偶像就是科学家。86年毕业于清华大学物理系（17岁考上），同年考取李政道奖学金赴美留学，93年在MIT获博士学位后（在美在玩乐上花了大量时间，功课却一直没落下），在MIT继续博后研究，后被互联网【94年雅虎出现震惊无数人，96年上市】迷住决定放弃成为一个“李政道式的物理学家”的理想，投身于更让人激动的数字化生存，95年31岁，回到北京想做一个叫中国在线（china online）的项目，找不到网站模式照搬雅虎，请人开发中文搜索引擎，起名搜狐，当雅虎的表兄弟，于98年正式推出。\n\n第一笔风险投资来自MIT媒体实验室主任尼葛洛庞帝教授和斯隆商学院爱德华·罗伯特教授，17万美元\n第二笔也是在天使投资方的斡旋引荐下获得，220多万\n\n程维\n滴滴创始人，父亲是江西铅山县公务员，母亲是数学老师。毕业于北京化工大学，在阿里巴巴工作业绩出色晋升为最年轻的区域经理，大量的客户拜访累计了扎实的销售能力和经验。据他说其高中数学很好，但在高考时竟然忘记翻开试卷最后一页，漏做三道大题，结果考上不怎么知名的化工大学，想学信息技术专业被调剂到商业管理专业。\n张一鸣\n毕业于南开大学，父亲是福建龙岩市科委普通干部，母亲是护士。后来父母下海到东莞开电子产品加工厂，但生意做的不大。但道听途说其父辈的好朋友也是大佬，在外面遇到资本贵人，做大之后仿佛背后有高人指点。\n周鸿祎\n父亲周学斌和母亲胡少先均毕业于武汉测绘学院（现武汉大学测绘学院），同为河南省测绘局工作人员。挚爱阅读，物理老师用个人名义给三所大学写信，意外接到西安交大的通知，没有参加高考就去了西安交大。\n李国庆\n北京文科状元，家境殷实，父母文化水平不高，但皆食公禄，出生在北京人声鼎沸的国庆节，注定是个性格热烈高调的人。83年成为费孝通在北大社会学系的第一届学生，大学里风生水起（学生会副主席），学生活动中存在感极强，也是他直至今日一直在寻找的（87年崔健被封杀，他跟同学创办首届艺术节还请崔健到北大礼堂唱《一无所有》）。大二写了一本28万字的《中国社会改造之我见》，浪漫热血，最终开成一朵奇葩。\n高中虽学文科，离开也不错，数学竞赛二等奖，化学竞赛三等奖照拿，从小一直是“别人家的孩子”，据其自述初中教材发下来一周就自学完了一学期的课程，并把课后习题全做完交给老师。初二初三还上台给同学们讲课。\n教育背景好，毕业就去国务院发展研究中心工作，后又在农村政策研究室工作。\n其老婆俞渝父母家庭一般（家住商务印书馆和中华书局的大院，门口就有新华书店，棍棒教育女儿），其个人比较隐忍克制，又充满勇气不惧困难。\n两人的特点都是童年以书相伴，一个租书看，一个据说年幼时常担心父母会命丧书架。\n史玉柱\n安徽怀远人，父亲是警察，母亲是工人。18岁怀远县状元身份考入浙大数学系，但在图书馆看了《数论》后了解到数学是那么的难，放弃了成为陈景润的理想选择了计算数学的方向。84年毕业分配到安徽省统计局工作，其回忆此举觉得挺荒唐，数学不是加减乘除，数学系主要是逻辑是大脑体操。上班没几天就通知到西安统计学院进修，他发现做这行离不开计算机，琢磨后决定去广州看看。他花了5w块买了IBM PC，自己写程序，分析年收入400，800元以上的农民消费特征分别是怎样的，这段经历让史玉柱了解到中国各人口群体的需求特性，开始在杂志上发表关于农村经济问题的文章，被安徽副省长，中科大教授，深圳大学客座教授看到，将其招为深圳大学软件科学专业（数学系）研究生。当时深大经商氛围强过学术氛围，讲座亦如此，对其触动很大，毕业后便辞了安徽统计局的工作，扎进研发打字软件的项目中。\n冯仑\n祖上是地主后来破产，父亲是陕西某国企工会负责人。\n教师\n段永平\n父亲段锡明是南昌工程学院（原江西水利电力学院）思政老师，退休前是马列教研室主任，母亲彭建华是学校图书馆工作人员。在 60 年代就能进大学任教，也算是起点很高的高知家庭了。虽然经历文革耽误了学习，但高考恢复78 年二进宫考试就考入浙大无线电专业，也说明了他及自身家庭的不俗。其超然常人的人生理念，相信与家庭的耳濡目染不无关系。\n雷军\n父亲师范学校毕业，在县城当老师。并不是仙桃市的高考状元，网上都是自媒体谣传，实际上其高考分数离87 年清北湖北录取线差 2 分，他数理化都是出色的，语文和英语就没那么好，有些偏科，要不然会有『are you ok？』的梗？\n王志东\n广东东莞人，教师家庭，88年毕业于北大无线电系，89年进入北大计算机技术研究所，研制中文多窗口图形支撑环境，90年转入北大方正负责产品二次开发和新产品研制，91年推出国内第一个实用化windows中文环境–BDWin3.0\n93年创办四通利方信息技术有限公司，98年成立新浪网，2000年上市。\n方洪波\n美的董事长，祖父方树伯在冯玉祥手下当过县长和少将军法主任，解放后为安徽枞阳县人大代表和政协委员。父亲方继达是村里第一个师范生，后为中学老师，母亲是医生。\n文化跨界\n李想\n汽车之家和理想汽车创始人，父母都毕业于中国戏曲学院，父亲是剧团导演，母亲是教师。\n从小成绩中下，酷爱计算机高山就放弃高考开始创业，未读大学，算是异类。\n普通\n工农出身超级富翁一般是遇到贵人，或者自己有过硬的技术，才走上成功之路。董明珠遇到了贵人，同时自己再销售上也极具天分。黄铮遇到了段永平，自己计算机水平也是出类拔萃。李彦宏是网络搜索技术大牛，俞敏洪是全国牛逼的英语培训老师。\n小资本家\n刘强东\n祖籍湖南湘潭，曾祖父移居苏北，在骆马湖和京杭运河做货船生意；祖父是资本家，后被镇压，父亲是个跑船的小老板，80年代初就有自己的货船，据说一直是县里的能人，本人也争气，宿迁高考状元。\n工人\n黄铮\n父母都是普通工人，但自己是学霸，12岁就进入杭州最难进的杭州外国语学校，01年结识丁磊被举荐给段永平，02届浙大计算机毕业，04年威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校计算机硕士毕业，后加入谷歌，后06与李开复一起派到中国拓展业务，建立Google中国办公室。\n贵人段永平非常器重他，06年62w美元拍下巴菲特午餐时都将其作为陪同参加。\n李彦宏\n父亲是晋东化工厂锅炉房工人，母亲是皮革厂工人。本人学习争气，阳泉高考状元。\n启蒙教育全靠姐姐教导，年少时痴迷于戏曲，曾梦想成为一名戏曲演员。高考恢复第一年，大姐就考上大学，在榜样引领之下，他也改变了自己的选择，：）\n百度成为行业试错员\n百度还是经常能起个大早，但却赶个晚集，在大家还在拼外卖的时候，他已经喊出了 All in AI，铺了一个大滩子内部起了一个好势后又把陆奇踢走。百度除了现金奶牛产品搜索，其余产品打造在这 20 年里一言难尽。\n企业拼的一个维度就是老板，有好事的人评断，Robin 和袁绍有点像，色厉胆薄，好谋无断，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，非英雄也！\n董明珠\n父母都是南京市普通工人，本人毕业于安徽芜湖干部教育学院统计学专业，75年在南京一家化工研究所做行政管理，84年其丈夫在儿子2岁时病逝，她30岁，此事件成为了其人生的转折点，6年后儿子上了小学，她南下闯荡。90年加入格力做业务经理，基本没休过年假，94年开始做经营部部长，并一路升迁，12年5月被任命为集团董事长。\n张磊\n高瓴资本创始人，生于驻马店市双职工家庭，80年河南省文科状元考取中国人民大学，98年赴美求学，后获得耶鲁大学工商管理硕士国际关系硕士双学位。\n05年拿着耶鲁导师数年万美金戎马归来，创立高瓴资本，资金面上势单力薄，想把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，以博取收益最大化，看上了刚刚在香港上市的腾讯，这比投资，让基金升值了200倍，一战成名。\n农民\n俞敏洪\n父亲是木匠，母亲生产队妇女主任，80年代办工厂成为万元户。老俞是个实在人，看过他上的电视节目做导师之类，点评建议真实，不讲虚的。\n王传福\n其表哥吕向阳大专学历，但16岁就进入了中国人民银行安徽分行工作，一干就是15年，后来创建了融捷投资管理集团，王传福能有钱搞电池研究和创业，十分有赖于表哥200W的投资。\n但家庭出身是真苦，父亲为木匠，在其13岁时就去世，母亲也是普通农民，在其15岁时也离世，由哥嫂做小生意供其读书。\n许家印\n58年生于周口太康县，父亲许贤高虽38年（16岁）就参加共产党抗日武装，且在当年就入党，但46年因伤退伍（当过骑兵连连长），回乡务农，在家乡当了一名仓库保管员，负责拿钥匙保管公家的用品记公分等事务，自己8个月大的时候母亲就因家境贫困无钱就医败血症撒手人寰。\n在恢复高考之后，78年以周口市高考探花的身份考入武汉钢铁学院（今武汉科技大学）冶金系金属材料及热处理专业，大学里出任卫生委员，2/3的时间读花在为同学服务，参与班级和学校的管理上，也积累了一些今后成功的影响。\n毕业分配到平顶山舞阳钢铁公司，虽然心有不情愿（平顶山不是他向往的大城市），但仍然一干就是十年，当热处理车间主任7年，整的井井有条，获得冶金部高级经济师职称。92年南巡讲话后，没有提拔遂决定出去闯一闯，在南方打下了自己的天下。\n张小龙\n出生湖南贫苦农民家庭，87年（18岁）考上华中理工大学电信系，硕士主攻微波技术方向。91年清华首开C语言课程，紧接着其它高效也引入，张小龙碰上C语言，一台386电脑前一坐就是深夜。\n在程序界成名比马化腾早，97年就独立写出foxmail，他还收到过pony对其发的用户邮件，提出foxmail一个非常细微的错误，当时有些吃惊，也是二人的缘分。\n\n94年张小龙虽然毕业分到电信机关但非常压抑，出走广州，97在破旧烟雾缭绕的办公室里一战成名，但依然穷困，正在做“面向对象数据库系统”的研究开发。\n97年还是大佬们集体吃糠咽菜的一年，周鸿祎是方正的高薪白领，25岁刘强东在中关村卖碟，26岁的Pony还在打工，33岁的马云在北京火锅店流泪大唱“在我心中，有一个梦”，只有求伯君和雷军好点，却被微软打的奄奄一息，29岁的李彦宏在硅谷山景城种菜。\n打出名堂的是丁三石，回国搞的张朝阳（），当时新浪还是前身四方利通www.srsnet.com[创办者是发明“中文之星”输入法的王志东]\n\n历史名人\n民间传说的不可靠\n岳飞\n岳飞的父亲叫岳和，他是个财主，当地发过大水，但岳飞的父亲很仁义，仗义疏财。他父亲活到岳飞22岁，为岳飞请了各种各样的私塾先生来教好自己的儿子文化知识，又请了周同过来教自己儿子武艺。岳飞19岁的时候那时候还有辽宋大战，岳飞上了战场，是父亲让他去打仗的。等他父亲去世岳飞已经在战场闯下了名头。\n\n岳飞成为这样子是父亲培养了他\n\n包拯\n传说中包青天为嫂子带大，其实包拯一样是地主家庭，他的父亲也是很有作为的\n近代名人联姻\n林则徐两个女儿（共4个女儿，一个夭折）分别嫁给了河南布政使和两江总督，联姻不凡。\n曾国藩有位孙女，为民国国防部长俞大维之母，俞大维姑姑是陈寅恪生母，俞大维又娶了表哥陈寅恪的女儿。蒋经国的女儿蒋孝章（中俄混血）嫁给了俞大维之子俞扬和。\n俞大维堂哥俞大纯曾任龙海铁路局局长，有子俞启威曾与江青同居，曾任天津市长，中共第一任机械部长，有孙俞正声曾任政治局常委，上海市委书记。\n叶剑英的父亲为梅县武秀才，夫人曾宪植为曾国荃玄孙女，曾宪植也算是俞大维的表姐(曾宪植父亲为其表舅)。\n俞大维妹妹俞大彩为台大前校长傅斯年妻子，妹俞大缜，俞大絪都曾任北京大学西语系教授，弟俞大纲是中国戏曲专家，弟俞大绂是植物病理学和微生物学家,曾任北京农业大学校长。\n结语\n三代人培养一代人，很多时候是需要从爷奶辈就要有一个很好的表率。不抱怨，向上道路必然艰辛，向下的大门却永远敞开。\n走近关系不只是靠送礼，有很多种方式，比如学会他人的爱好跟他交朋友，或者是在某一方面有独到的见解能聊得来，或者是平时经常一起吃饭去玩，细心待人。有些学问不是让你一步登天的，而是让你慢慢改变自己的命运的。在中国社会，没有关系，或者你跟别人的关系处不好，你就绝对不可能成功。这个关系，可以是你的家庭带给你的，可以是你的对象家庭带给你的，也可以是你自己努力，让别人觉得有交换价值或者投资价值攀上的关系。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"抽象Thailand","url":"/%E6%8A%BD%E8%B1%A1%E6%B3%B0%E5%9B%BD.html","content":"\n2025 年春节，带着家人在曼谷和 Pattaya 过了几天日子，对其国民福利覆盖和服务业低廉感到矛盾困惑，聒噪的街边也有不少带儿乞讨者，以曼谷的交通聒噪和混乱程度，不是很适合 citywalk。有幸碰到一次泰王出行参加唐人街活动，多样性体验拉满。\n\n泰国GOV 每月至少进行五次街头检查，被发现带着无关孩子的乞丐将面临刑事指控，外国乞丐将被驱逐出境，泰国本地乞丐会被送去接受职业培训。但消灭乞丐很难，因为与收入相比，罚款微不足道\n\n按某些人的总结来说，Thailand 属于少数非法起家而后洗白的那一类富人+不干活的政府+非常多的贫困的底层百姓构成的国度。非常有钱又没有底线，那么这个地方就是极乐世界，有诸天神佛皆为你诵经。没钱这种挣扎生存的地方就是狮驼岭。泰国很多时候是宜居，可给长期签证，但不给国籍。服务物美价廉，适合去消费，是地理套利的一种方法。小乘佛教的表象下是赤裸裸鲜活的阿鼻地狱，真实的西部世界，累累底层堆积出最有钱的家族，难的是大多数都身处无间。\n泰国人信佛，跟我们目的不一样，我们求财，他们求消灾。\n\n神话力量\n按抽象层次来说，泰国差不多和印度一个层次，简单说也是因为它受到印度的影响。自从种姓制度被确立后，印度祭司们就致力于把这项先进的文化给传播出去，让更多人都能过上有一顿没一顿的幸福生活。第一站受害者就是东南亚，拿泰国来说，泰国不仅学习了印度神话，还仿照了印度神话编写了一个叫『拉玛坚』的神话传说，建造了属于自己的神话体系，且从泰国历史上第一个王朝，素可泰王朝开始，国王就已通过印度的神话完成泰国版本的君权神授，把自己神话成了湿婆的化身。比如说泰国非常流行的崇拜叫四面佛，它的原型就是印度神话里的梵天。既然印度神话已渗透进了泰国历史，那印度的祭司为何没在泰国搞种姓制度？不是祭司们不想搞，是在忙着另一件事：斗法。印度祭司想要搞种姓制度，首先就要打破巫师对基层的控制，这波是印度的祭司碰到了泰国的巫师。魔法碰上了魔法，二话不说就是斗法。尽管印度祭司有着超强的洗脑能力，但泰国巫师的剑也未尝不利，由于文化上的差异，双方的交流都成问题。祭司说原人创造了世界，他的身体变成了四个阶层，巫师们问：什么是创造世界？祭司们说 1+1=2，巫师们问，什么是加。双方根本不在一个频道上，而巫师和百姓唯一关心的问题，是你祭司懂不懂法术？想在泰国混，你得会斗法。比如说 2010 年泰国两股势力起了争斗，面对对方的武力威胁，另一方请来了以为婆罗门祭司，让祭司发动了一场抽血行动，然后再把收集到的血液全都泼在对方地盘上，对敌人进行狠狠的诅咒。\n\n想要搞出一套新的分层制度，首先要打破原有的社会结构，可泰国古代的社会结构类似我们古代的分封制，王权对地方没有绝对的控制力，管理地方的不是朝廷官员，而是各地的贵族，由于泰国有着自己的信仰，所以这些贵族还有着另一层身份：巫师。\n\n斗法说到底就是看辩经的能力，就是说出去的话得让人们不能反驳，搞出来的仪式得能让百姓愿意相信，这就需去融合当地文化。等到这些印度祭司好不容易融合了泰国的文化，压制了当地的巫师后，佛家僧侣们也来到了东南亚，泰王二话不说，又转头成了佛学的守护者，等到这些新来的僧侣准备深入基层时，印度的祭司已经完成了本地化，于是和当地的巫师一起问出了那个抽象的问题，你僧侣懂不懂法术。于是僧侣也融合了当地的文化，掀起了一场魔法对轰的抽象场面。一直延续到了现代社会。到了今天，僧侣们已占据了主导地位，但这三类神仙早就出现了合流的情况，可能干得好的僧侣就变成了婆罗门祭司，干得差的还俗就变成了民间的巫师。\n不难理解，为何泰国会流行恐怖电影，为何每部电影都有斗法桥段。本地化的佛学有了很多魔法，尤其是印度魔法的成分，这些成分就为一些法外狂徒提供了心理和精神上的安慰，所以敢于尝试，犯罪容错率高。\n近代历史\n泰国本身就缺乏对基层的控制力，尤其是对边境地区的控制力，之前的巫师和祭司，也就是现在的地方贵族，依然对当地有着绝对的控制力，王权不下乡，乡下有贵族，双方不是上下级关系，更像是一种合作关系。泰国的统治者既是国王，也是天神的化身，还是佛学的守护者。\n在殖民者出现后，各国都出现了反对王室，变法维新的运动。结果还没等到泰国百姓要求变法，拉玛五世朱拉隆功国王就率先发起了变法维新，且凭借在英法间左右横跳制衡的能力，使得泰国成了整个东南亚唯一没被殖民的国家，极大地提高了王室的形象。\n到了 20 世纪，全球又发起一场推翻王室的风潮，一个叫颂堪的军人准备联合泰国各级势力共同胁迫王室退位，还政于民，结果时任国王根本不给他们机会，没等到他们胁迫，就主动让出手中权力，只留下拔剑四顾心茫然的众人。主打一个只要我投降的快，就没人能够打败我，客观上也避免了流血牺牲。\n此后颂堪就成了泰国的实际控制者，同时也保留了整个王室。到了二战后颂堪被推翻，泰国宣布之前对英美宣战无效（宣战书没有得到国王授权，泰国大使也觉得政府愚蠢，根本没向英美提交），对已投降的日本宣战。到了 48 年，颂堪又政变成了新的统治者，军方来回发动政变，相互推翻『泰国过去 80 年，军队进行了近 20 次政变』。此时王室在干嘛，在搞慈善活动，兴修水利，兴办学校，一幅忧国忧民形象，在拉玛九世操作下，王室获得大量民众基础。一边是说变就变的军队，一边是爱民如子的国王，民众很自然就倒向国王的阵营。\n后来的军政府就选择与国王合作，由国王赋予自己统治的合理性。说以前的动乱都是生搬硬套别国的制度导致的，不顾泰国的实际情况，应放弃国会权威，重新树立起神王的权威。简单来说，就是把国王打造成集王权，神权，民权为一体的至高神，然后自己作为神的臣子来治理国家，这个模式就一直延续了下来。\n泰王和军方实际是彼此帮扶相互利用的关系，军方通过泰王敛财贪腐，泰王利用军方罢黜反对派和铲异己。一旦民选政府施政失当，军方就政变，收取民心，拉拢各方利益。全国大说数大中型企业，外资企业，石油电力通讯等国计民生行业，特许经营行业都充斥着王室背景。军方高级将领几乎各个都是大地主，身处财富圈的高端；几百万有产阶级，形成了财富圈的中间部分。\n只要民选政府要割这些权贵的肉，富裕阶层必然反击，对政府命令阳奉阴违，难得到有效落实，这时就动员平民阶层红衫军上街诉求，代表有产阶级和王室军方利益的黄衫军也会及时出马抗争，于是，王室授意的军方政变就会发生，民选政府被推翻，政治重新洗牌。泰国可以实行短期军管，但不能长久，对立严重搞不好会把泰国引入内战，到时候军方和王室的命运就会很微妙。所以军方政变后都会承诺一定期限内回到民主体制，循环往复。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史","地理"]},{"title":"拥抱世界善待自己","url":"/%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%96%84%E5%BE%85%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html","content":"\nBelieve yourself, Find a different self\n每当我遇到自己不敢直视的苦难时，我就会闭上眼睛，想象自己是一个80岁的老人，为人生中曾放弃和逃避过的无数苦难而懊恼不已，我会对自己说，能年轻一次，该有多好。然后我就睁开眼睛，砰，我又年轻了一次。\n看过一个街头老人采访，3个被采访对象，问想对年轻的自己说些什么。除了一位境遇差的说应该多读书，另外两个都大意是应该更加自信和更加勇敢（don’t warry，take risk），活出多样的自己。\n\n人人都希望拥有财富和勇气，正说明这两项都是稀缺的，但与财富不同，勇气不能任意运用。\n\n在周游半个地球回到澳洲后投身8年临终护理的邦妮·韦尔，写出这么一份临终后悔总结，记住了临终的老人们提到最多的五件事\n\n\n希望有勇气过真正自己想要的生活，而不是过别人所期望的生活\n\n\n人生叹息\n\n\n环境的产物\n\n\n\n\n希望以前没有那么拼命的工作\n\n\n忙碌无为\n\n\n目的与意义\n\n\n\n\n希望有足够的勇气表达自己的感受\n\n\n\n对家人说爱\n\n\n对内疚说不\n\n\n祸中得福\n\n\n\n\n希望能和自己的朋友一直保持联系\n\n保持联系\n真正的朋友\n自我允许\n\n\n\n希望让自己成为快乐的人\n\n承认自己\n快乐就在眼前\n视角问题\n\n\n\n微笑与领悟：没有人后悔赚钱太少，房子太小，人们只是后悔不够关心自己…让人们疲于奔命的『人生任务』，不过是社会机器运转所需要的润滑剂。人们行色匆匆，眼神中带着焦虑与急切，得到了满足就无聊，得不到就痛苦，人生就像钟摆一样，在痛苦和无聊之间不停摆荡，永无安宁。不应将生命的希望寄托在外物上，正确的做法是无视外物，向内求，回归自我的探寻，享受生命的宁静与安逸，感受到生活的美好。人生三见不着相。\n高龄老人最害怕的也不是死亡，而是那之前的种种状况：丧失听力、记忆力、失去最好的朋友和固有的生活方式。生活中最好的事，就是能自己上厕所。\n\n一个人 30 岁就开始进入不可逆的衰老进程，牙齿磨损，骨密度下降，感官退化。\n40 岁左右，肌肉质量和力量开始走下坡路，大脑的处理速度也开始降低。\n50 岁开始，骨头以每年 1%的速度丢失骨密度。\n60 岁视网膜接受到的光线是你 20 岁时的 1/3。\n70 岁的时候，大脑灰质丢失，头颅灰空出差不多 2.5cm 的空间，所以老年人在头部受到撞击后，更易因大脑晃动导致颅内出血。\n80 岁，我们会丢失 25%到 50%的肌肉。\n\n人生好狼狈，生命的厚度需要用一生去体会。我们最终的目的不是好死，而是好好地活到终了。— 来自《最好的告别》\n善待你的时间\n\n\n你浪费的今天是昨天死去的人奢望的明天，你所言恶的现在，是未来的你回不到的曾经。\n\n\n时间面前人人平等，如果你认为锻炼身体是第一位的，那你自然会优先安排好锻炼的时间，总是认为没有时间锻炼身体的人，未来总会有时间生病，忙不是借口，比你再忙的人，都有时间运动。身体状态和年龄无关，健康的身体需要付出时间去管理，最好的医生是自己，最好的药物是时间，往后余生，身上无病，心中无事，便是最好的光景。\n\n终有一天，你会发觉你值得炫耀的不是你有多少钱，不是你开什么车，而是你周围的人都玩不动，走不动的时候，你还拥有强健的体魄\n在河南省这个中等经济水平的省份，郑州市一个医院，2008年收入6.8个亿，2018年收入是180个亿，如修车般修人，拿命换钱转换为拿钱换命\n\n\n\n走运前的七个征兆\n学会戒掉情绪\n戒掉悲观情绪，戒掉坏情绪。所谓运气，就是你体内运转的一股气，当你怨天尤人，唉声叹气的时候，你的运气自然就会往下走，这个世界你想什么，不一定能遇到，但是你怕什么，它就会来什么。所以一定不要在有情绪的时候做决定。\n学会社交送礼\n礼物不一定要很贵，但一定要学会与人处处逢源。比如你去别人家做客，手里一定要尝尝拎一袋水果，永远不要空手去别人家做客，别人帮了你的忙，随手就给人家发个红包，向高手请教问题，一定要事先给人家发一个红包，收不收是人家的事，但发不发却是一个很重要的事。只有别人觉得你上道了，别人才会一直帮着你\n学会了开始自律\n放弃游戏，闲聊以及无效社交，学会了享受孤独，开始关注于工作学习，规划作息，锻炼身体，对自己的人生和家人负责，责任感越来越强，从内心认识到要想重新好起来全靠自己。\n学会了反思自己\n每天拿出来一个小时梳理你自己，你现在的生活是什么状况，个人毛病是什么，恶习是什么，造成了自己什么样子，被哪些事牵扯到了精力，这些问题怎么解决，怎么改正。孔子说吾日三省吾身，本意就是如此\n开始有利他之心\n懂得感恩，站在他人的角度思考问题，持续创造价值，最终才能收获到他人的厚爱。机会和爱戴是留给感恩的人。如果你的思考只围绕着自己，那很难获得成功。要想赢得好运，还要学会保持微笑，与周围的人好好说话，时间一久啊，都想跟你接触，你的磁场一旦发生改变，境随心转，连贵人都会从天而降\n学会了思维方式的转变\n正向的思维是事业成功的开始。如果你的思维方式从负面变成了正向，从消极变成了积极，那你的后半生，财富就是个副产品而已。如果你自己都觉得自己不行，那你注定只能失败，人这一生啊，就是要改闯敢拼，不拼几次，你到老了肯定会有遗憾\n开始对金钱有了强烈的欲望\n心不唤物物不至，穷身前行行必果，倘若你没有对金钱强烈的欲望，注定一定只能穷下去，你要学会热爱自己的事业，要把自己的梦想真正的放在心上，一步步地去执行，落地去实践，而不是晚上想起千条路，早上起来走原路。只有对金钱强烈的欲望，才能激励自己不断的成长，未来乾坤未定，你我皆是黑马\n\n改变命运的办法首先是改变自己，总指望着“靠外部环境的变化来提升自己的命运”是非常懒惰且愚蠢的生活方式。殊不知，人的命运需要自己掌握。\n\n结语\n没有完美的人生剧本，所有的选择都有代价，关键是承担选择的勇气。承认脆弱反而是强大的开始，正如树木会在受伤处生出最坚硬的结，人生是体验而非任务，要允许自己『过得不好』，我们不是来『赢』的，活出自己才是正确之道。\n幸福不是来自生命的过程，而是来自你对生活所持的态度。取决于自己对现在客观环境的理解，享受自己的当下，而不是去追求别人想象出来的幸福。\n当你看过世界，见过众生，才发现你要见的世面，是自己内心的勇敢和自信！\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"换个视角理解人生-十日谈","url":"/%E6%8D%A2%E4%B8%AA%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F-%E5%8D%81%E6%97%A5%E8%B0%88.html","content":"\n《十日谈》\n2020年全球疫情，历史什么时候跟这个阶段有些相似呢，大家把目光投向薄伽丘的《十日谈》。当时佛罗伦萨和欧洲很多地方都爆发了黑死病，仅佛罗伦萨就死了10w+人，欧洲可能因疫情损失的人口在7000w~2亿之间。\n1350年，薄伽丘开始创作《十日谈》，内容是讲述十位年轻男女跑到佛罗伦萨郊外躲避瘟疫。他们在宜人的花园住下，每天除了唱歌跳舞之外，每个人要讲一个故事，十天下来就讲了一百个故事，这些故事合在一起，就是这本书。书中故事离奇有趣，人物类型众多，有王公贵族、僧侣骑士，也有平民百姓、贩夫走卒。书中教会里面的人物，特别是头面人物，嘴上都是仁义道德，骨子里却是男盗女娼，而且贪得无厌。相比之下，人间正常的男欢女爱广受赞颂，书的内容从主题到形式的差异非常大，但思想内核突出，就是赞美人间美好的生活，讽刺教会和贵族骑士。\n《第一天-第二个》\n\n犹太人亚伯拉罕是个Good guy，有个天主教好友杨诺，杨诺为了劝说他皈依天主教，不断吹嘘天主教的好处。时间长了，亚伯拉罕真的有点信了杨诺的话，但他说耳听为虚眼见为实，他要去罗马一趟，亲眼见见天主教什么样，才能决定信与不信。\n杨诺一想，亚伯拉罕一到罗马，目睹教会腐败的生活，肯定就不信了，所以就劝说他不要去罗马。但亚伯拉罕很坚决，这样杨诺已经打定了朋友回来肯定不信天主教的结果了。\n果然，罗马教廷丑陋的东西让亚伯拉罕看到了，但回来后，亚伯拉罕说他准备皈依天主教了，杨诺很困惑，问他为什么？\n亚伯拉罕讲，罗马本该是神圣的，但成了包容一切罪恶的大熔炉，教皇以及主教们（牧羊人）本该做天主教的支柱和基础，却日夜千方地想要天主教早些垮台。但是亚伯拉罕话锋一转的讲，我还是决定皈依天主教，为什么呢，因为无论他们千方百计挖墙角想把天主教推翻，天主教还是岿然不动，还发扬光大，那么天主教肯定有圣灵在做支柱和基石，你们的宗教的确比其它宗教更正大神圣。\n好友杨诺万万没想到，亚伯拉罕会因教会的腐朽得出这么个大反转结论来。\n故事的启示\n追寻合理的本质，换个视角理解人生\n应用场景1\n例如举此文章例子的作者吴军在给从google来腾讯的员工开解问题时，就借道讲过这个故事。来自google的这位同学，跑来抱怨代码质量这么差，单元测试也没有，三天两头死机，没救了，很郁闷，通过这个故事，开导他换个角度看问题。\n你看，照理说，这么差的工程质量，系统三天两头崩溃，用户早该跑光了，可他的用户还在不断增加，大家使用好像也没有遇到什么麻烦，这说明这像故事里的天主教，有圣灵给他做支柱。\n接下来建议他去找原因，这个原因一定是价值所在，果然他找到了原因，且能客观的评价腾讯的工程工作，自己也发展很顺利。\n能提醒我们思考表现和本质的区别，表现可能是假的，当表现解释不了原因时，就需要思考我们是否没看到本质。\n应用场景2\n他还举了一个应用此故事的例子，某个创业公司，盯着它很多细节看，大把问题，但很奇怪的是，很多企业做不成的事情，它都能做成，因此外面整体看起来发展的很好。\n国内本来有一家基金，看到乱象问题没有跟投。几年后回问，为什么当年坚持看好它？就以此故事来解释。当你发现这个大厦有很多蛀虫，却屹立不倒，说明他可能有过人之处，找到他就可以放心投了。\n这家的创始人确实厉害，总是先人一步进入一个蓬勃发展的领域，这就是他致胜的秘诀。\n文学对读理工科、做技术、做投资没用么，显然不是。\n回望文艺复兴与十日谈\n黑死病对欧洲影响巨大，大家对宗教的兴趣大减，转而关注世俗的幸福。\n\n离上帝更近的教士也没少死，对上帝的崇拜大减。神治不了病，还得靠医生，促进了欧洲医学的发展\n原本重来世，一下死这么多人，倍觉生命可贵，重视当下生活，加上十字军带回了阿拉伯地区的生活方式，以意大利为代表的欧洲进入一种享乐主义，教皇亦不例外\n劳动力一下少了好多，荒地处处，幸存者变得非常值钱，城里的雇主为了吸引劳工都在涨工资，逐渐形成城市中产阶级，因为缺少劳动力，欧洲开始寻求通过机械替代人力，促使了欧洲的工业革命。\n\n《十日谈》和《神曲》分别从民间的、世俗的故事和神的、精神的故事开始文学从中世纪到新世纪的转折。在中世纪，文学体裁远没有现在这么丰富，只有宗教文学、诗歌和宫廷文学。凡人的故事是难登大雅之堂的，《十日谈》之后，欧洲出现了大量的讲述人间故事的短篇小说。这些短篇小说后来又成了一些著名戏剧的创作原本。比如莎士比亚的很多戏剧的情节就来源于那些短篇小说。好的经典文学在历史上同样是功德无量。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"接纳不完美的自己书摘","url":"/%E6%8E%A5%E7%BA%B3%E4%B8%8D%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E4%B9%A6%E6%91%98.html","content":"\n主旨: 做一个好人，还是做一个完整的人？\n认识自己\n“投影”是一种有趣的心理现象（为什么你身边会出现某一类人）：\n\n我们会不自觉地用潜意识去影响周围的人，让他们表现出为我们所压抑的特质和情感，或者把容易表现出这种特质和情感的人吸引到我们身边，这就是投影的机制\n\n认识自己可以问别人，也可以列举3个喜欢/厌恶的人做分解\n用大声讲自己的阴暗面来达到脱敏的效果\n用第三人称的命名方式来区别自己身上的亚人格，与其进行对话\n\n疯狂就是一次又一次地重复同样的事情，希望得到不同的结果（这又是一种愚蠢的象征）\n\n承认自己才能改变自己\n\n当你想有所改变时，除了上面提及的脱敏办法，还可以试试下面的:\n\n\n换个活法，从换个说法开始\n承认自己的优点和长处，学会以自己为荣\n愤怒也是一种生命的能量，如果承认自己的愤怒，它能给予你实现人生梦想所需的能量，完全没有愤怒，毕竟也不是好事\n滋养我们的心灵，可以挂一张自己婴儿期的照片再每天都看到的地方\n\n\n现代人太忙，忘记该怎么照顾自己，许多人最需要两件东西：\n\n\n休息\n自己和别人的肯定\n\n\n像贵族一样对待自己，若已对自己做了一切，世界还是冷若冰霜，再检视内心潜藏，消极的东西（因为你关怀自己，别人就会关怀你）\n你欣赏他人的每一个特质，在你身上都有，只不过借助别人显现出来了，这也是相似相映。与其说我们在不断寻找值得欣赏的人，不如说我们是在不断去发现自己。\n做计划按目标改变自己\n如果没有计划，梦想就会成为我们的心理负担，让我们感到空虚\n作者提出了很多可操作性的心理疗法，也提倡冥想，有需要可以尝试\n\n接受心理阴暗面，肯定自己\n认识自己\n寻找目标\n制定计划\n开辟新人生\n\n\nps：无节制进食也是一种麻醉行为，其实和吸毒差不多，不要用一种瘾疾代替另一种\n(通过进食来舒缓压力的胖子们都醒醒吧)\n\n任何人的性格都是一体两面的\n\n喜恶同因，瑕瑜互见。你爱他的容颜，就要接受他的衰老一样，性格同样如此\n\n你爱他的勇敢，就要接受他的急躁\n你爱他的细腻，就要接受他的纠结\n你爱他的稳定，就要接受他的平淡\n你爱他的温柔，就要接受他的依赖\n你爱他的智慧，就要接受他的冷漠\n你爱他的才华，就要接受他的自恋\n结语：认可自己，允许一切发生\n\n真正的强大不是对抗，而是允许发生\n真正的自信是认可自己。进步和收获的每一步不是给别人的评价做的，不需要任何人看见。\n\n当你允许遗憾、愚蠢、丑恶、虚伪、允许付出没有回报之后，你会逐渐变成一个柔软放松舒展的人，总是和自己对抗，和人性以及世界的运行规律对抗，你会越发拧巴，软弱和痛苦。\n允许一切发生，不是让你破罐子破摔还自我安慰，而是让你学会真正接纳自己的情绪，学会带着情绪去做事，和自己的情绪和谐相处。\n善待自己，善待别人，允许自己做自己，允许别人做别人。对自己不必远虑，对他人不必多想。不在别人心中修行自己，不在自己心中强求别人。按荣格的话说：你连想改变别人的念头都不要有，要学习像太阳一样，只是发出光和热。\n允许一切发生，接纳，包容，善待自己和别人，这才是真正的强大！\n后记：活在别人眼中是对自己的不尊重\n凡敏感皆是懦弱，凡愤怒皆是无能，凡抱怨皆是依赖。不在意精神修持，一生将很快在盲目的追逐和焦虑中空耗过去，外面没有什么是真正属于你的，内在的滋养和丰盛是你真正需要的。\n不必活在别人的期待里，不以外界的评判内耗自己的情感。费尽心思让所有人开心，会忘了自己怎么笑。认可和存在感的获得，是向内求索而非向外祈怜。无需为了那些不属于自己的观众，去演绎你不擅长的人生。\n一个人最可悲的就是为了别人的看法一味的改变自己，到了最后，做不成别人，也找不回自己。曹操再奸，都有知心友；刘备再好，都有死对头；孙权再温柔，两边都是仇。再厉害的人，背后都有人议论，活在别人眼里，也就死在别人嘴里，闲话一直有，不听自然无。议论别人的人本身是可怜可悲的，因为这是非常低层次的事件。高层次的人不是在议论别人，而是在学习别人。另一个层面，被人议论也说明你牵制了他，吸引了他，值得开心，大概率因为你比他强。也有些人身处水洼遍地的烂泥中，绝不允许你站在高塔上光彩夺目，同归于尽才痛快。\n你越在乎别人的看法和评价，也是一种信号，你该提升了（你跟他混在一个级别了）。什么叫诅咒，就是我骂你一句，你入心了，这就叫诅咒，进一步讲甚至表扬和批评也是对人的控制的手段，不以物喜不以己悲方是超越的状态。当你不提升受到这种能量的牵制和侵扰，就会和他同频，时间长了就会是一个负能量的状态，又会吸引过来什么样的事情呢？你比他厉害（精神力量、智慧、素质），比他层次高的时候，他是不可能影响到你的，就如飞机飞在云层之上，所以就看不见下面在下雨。\n\n稻盛和夫说：我站在一楼，有人骂我，我很生气；我站在十楼，有人骂我，我听不清，以为他在和我打招呼；我站在一百楼，有人骂我，我根本看不见，也听不见。\n\n当你在一百楼，触目所及的是碧空无云，峰峦叠嶂，我见青山多妩媚，料青山见我亦如是。一个人之所以痛苦别人的看法是因为他缺乏高度，高度不够看到的都是问题，格局太小纠结的都是鸡毛蒜皮，时间都损耗在无意义的纷争之上。\n不与井蛙语海，不与凡夫言道。活在别人眼里是一件很可悲的事情，做好自己的事，走好自己的路。虽有时也要照顾别人的感受，但那不是为了寻求认可和存在感，而是尊重对方而已。\n无惧无悔\n情绪稳定的本质是无惧无悔：无惧是允许一切发生；无悔是不假设自己未选择的路，不自怜自艾。活在当下，由心而生。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"提桶跑路Civil Engineering","url":"/%E6%8F%90%E6%A1%B6%E8%B7%91%E8%B7%AFCivil-Engineering.html","content":"\n工地是真的苦\n提到工地的苦，大多都口出粗鄙之语。\n一些早已离开工地多年的人，都会发生过半夜被噩梦惊醒的事情。有的是梦见用的钢筋标号搞错了；有的梦见自己掉进了深基坑；有的梦见陷在水泥里四周一个人都没有；有人做梦自己建的铁路桥塌了，事故责任调查判了自己几年，醒来特意开车会去那个桥看一次。\n工地是全方位的辛苦。\n\n\n第一就是环境太差，铁皮工程房就是工程人员办公休息二合一的地方，保证你冬冷夏热，晴天一身灰，雨天一身泥，出来都掉渣。\n\n\n吃得也差，他们的厨子是没考上新东方烹饪学校出来报复社会的。提桶跑路回来转身给工友卖盒饭，发现比干工地挣得多。\n\n\n\n工地的偏远就不用说了，除了少量拆迁改造，地铁，大部分工地肯定都不在市区，例如修路修桥肯定是在没路没桥的地方，加上工作忙，工地上人出门也少，很多时候变得比山里农民还闭塞。地理位置偏僻，很多时候无处可去，所以工作时间非常的长，工地人对抱怨996持轻蔑态度，606算不了什么大事。\n\n除了工地上的那群劳动者，方圆二十里甚至都没有灵长类生命出现。\n\n开车去县城就要两小时，见到超过20个人都会很激动。\n大城市大学毕业生参加铁路工程局工作2年后对参加乡下赶集都非常高兴，会认真记录了自己吃早点的过程。\n也有住快捷酒店不舍得走，实在不想回工地的。\n\n工作量大价平\n所有工程都有工期，而工期大多都紧到催命。工地上10个坑，只准备8个萝卜，那个萝卜闲了，就有坑等着你。\n通宵打灰反人类\n\n活儿虽机械枯燥，但并不好干，动不动就要被上头的人训斥。\n\n颜值垮塌\n晒黑，饮食不规律，烟酒一起来，颜值普遍会快速崩塌，稀碎可能更准。\n\n伤病风险与积劳成疾\n工地的风险小到踩钉子打破伤风，大到掉进水泥搅拌机里，各种安全事故每天都大小发生，没有不受伤的。夏天干活一天能喝10升水，休息的时候一点尿都没。职业病难免会积累下来。早年在工地累的是腰腿膝盖，当了领导又喝废了。\n耽误婚恋\n男性占比99%，终身大事很容易耽误。有了老婆孩子也是常年的两地分居，一年见不了几次，工地三宝：台风，停电，来美女。发生一件，就值得加菜庆祝，三件同时发生，那地球基本保不住了。\n留人难\n随着发达地区基建越来越少，工地越来越偏僻，想回家越来越难，出国甚至2，3年才能回家一次。除了收入增长停滞，更要命的是升级难。\n收入不振\n先说收入，苦是一直如此，设施不完善，工期紧，任务重，总体还是一直在改善。工地到底是个临时设施，位置又偏僻，即使欧美发达国家施工的地方，大多也非常简陋。\n说的直白一点，最主要的问题就是收入，工资加个0，今天就不可能剩下一点工作干不完。21世纪初期，工地人收入并不低，但近十年，收入没什么变化，产业链上都一样，包括设计院的人。主要是时代不再是大发展大基建的时代了。\n十年前一个经理能拿到20w，收入远超社会平均水平，能在城市买车买房，虽然买上住不了几天，对吃的苦到底有个交代，比起金融IT都不差的，房地产的崛起，大学土木录取分还是很高，但20年收入没涨多少，工作场景谁比谁流泪。\n\n在2008~2012年那几年，伴随着房地产的景气，土木迎来了它的黄金时代，那时做这行就像在淘金，只要跳进去就极大可能赚钱。\n\n\n算上面的困难和时薪的话低的离谱，收入增加也有限，前几年相当于白干，和热门专业的同学比，就是入错行的代表。年轻的想着提桶跑路，年老的就觉得这辈子就这样了，极力避免自己孩子再学这个。\n新人入职培训吃的好住得好，直到把你送到工地前，你都觉得自己是找对工作了，甚至有的为了留住新人，项目经理前两个月都让新人在室内弄资料，直到你不能再以应届生应聘工作了，才会以小伙子老坐着不好，我给你介绍一下现场的情况为名，带你去干活了。\n晋升困难\n985毕业生到了工地打灰拉线干起，学的东西用不上，干到总工和项目经理级别才用得上。当年中专毕业的项目经理干的也好好的，自己学的到底有多少用心里还真没底，哪怕是设计院，绝大多数工程都是普通工程，使用现今的制图软件，大量原本需要很多计算的工作，都自动完成了。不能说知识没用，在工地上使用的知识和学到的知识差异太大了，除了考证书上的东西，作用很有限。\n大基建时代，发展快的要命，到处缺技术人员，一个大项目坐下来就能升级一次，小项目做个两次也能升级，让你赶快带队出去独当一面，那时候三年做到总工，五年做到项目经理，虽说有点夸张，但5总7项（5年总工7年项目经理）是非常可能的，就像海底捞刚开始的时候加入的早，开新店员工就可能成为店长。\n内卷\n这些年虽然工程建设技术变化很大，但具体工作流程没多少进步，甚至因为高技术手段，很多工作技术含量更低了，大多数工程只要看得懂图纸，按照上面写的按部就班干，不违反规程不偷工减料，都不会出什么问题的，行业早年的快速发展造成现在严重的僧多粥少，也就是内卷，以至于工程单位最重要的工作，一个是找活干，一个是结工程款。\n也就是干工程你在这两个领域干得好，基本上爽的要死，且现在有工程资质的公司太多了，都想尽办法压价，毕竟这么多人闲着也有成本，不但压价还垫资，结款没有不扯皮了。喊哑了嗓，拍烂了桌，喝坏了胃和肝，最后还被扣着尾款.\n供给与变化\n每年毕业相关专业学生太多，20年前全国大学只有100多个学校开了建筑土木专业，现在已经有5，600家了，还有师范学校，也开建筑系的，一窝蜂的上马使得大量不管合不合格的毕业生都进入这一行了，搞得最后企业除了大学生好招，什么人都不好招了。\n毕业后，大部门学土木的都会选择进施工单位，也就是下工地干活儿。\n\n提桶跑路视频，就是土木学子考验加油站，考公加油站。进工地一个月后，提桶跑路的土木毕业生数不胜数，有的回家备考公务员，有的则去互联网公司做了运营。\n\n一年下来，同学打卡了三亚的凤凰岛、长沙的太平街，以及成都的宽窄巷子。同学打卡的都是热门景点，人头攒动。\n而土木人则打卡了距离廊坊市区60公里的楼盘、兰州新区刚刚兴建的厂房，以及广西北部山区里的隧道，在电视上就看过有大工程在一个地方作业10年。不是家里苦在时代趋势下真难以坚持。\n\n现今土木的分数已经降下来了，清华大学土木已经在提前批和贫困批招生，强制规定提前批不能转专业。领导对于新人表示理解，一旦有提桶思想，一般是先画饼，不行就放假，再不行就承诺转你去轻松岗位，虽说都是空话，但是据说这是工地人最能感受自己价值的时刻。前二十年，在整个行业积累了大量骨干，这些人短时间都不会退休了，这保证了后十几年中国工程建设实力依然不会有多少下降，出海算是一条路，但消化过剩生产力。\n总结\n土木人自称牛马，虽是调侃，真的有现实写照，中国速度，基建狂魔，基础是大量在工地工作的人，内卷成这样严重已经影响行业的发展。比海员还惨，海员能积累休假歇一段时间，也是土木人期待的改变。\n还有希望吗，行业是不会消失的，年轻人都不来干工地，这一行才有希望。\n为什么写下这么一篇文章，有同窗本科土木改靠英语研究生改行，现在大团队也有南京大学学土木跑去外国读研计算机，面试中也碰到过土木自行改行做码农的，小时候听及长辈言传土木工程好，这种观点冲撞通过这篇形象的小文予以回应解读。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"搜索的本质","url":"/%E6%90%9C%E7%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8.html","content":"\n\n利用信息，消除歧义 – 吴军博士对于搜索本质的解释定性\n本文内容来自于一次吴军博士的讲座整理\n\n用信息熵衡量搜索\n\n香农在信息论中提出信息熵的概念，统摄这个议题\n\n语言的出现是为了人类之间的通信，任何一种语言都是一种编码的方式，这也是语言模型中直接抽象 encoder $\\rightarrow$ decoder 的来源，自然语言处理问题等价成通信的解码问题\n\n一本五十万字的中文书平均有多少信息量？\n\n\n\n常用汉字大约有7000，假如每个字等概率，那么大约要用13个bit表示一个汉字（实际上汉字的使用是不平均的）\n\n\n考虑到实际每个汉字使用不平均，前10%的汉字占文本的95%以上\n\n\n不考虑上下文相关性，每个汉字独立概率，那么每个汉字信息熵大约8-9个bit\n\n\n考虑上下文相关性，每个汉字信息熵约5bit左右\n\n传统理论上一个汉字包含的信息少于5bits，大部分网上均称汉字的信息熵大于6，甚至达到11\n\n\n\n\n\n故一本50w字中文书，信息量大约是250wbit\n\n这里讲的250wbit是个平均数，同样长度的数，所含的信息可以差很多\n\n编码压缩存储\n\n用好用的压缩算法压一下，整本书可存成一个320KB的文件\n若直接用两字节编码存储这书，大约要1MB大小，是压缩文件的3倍\n\n这两个数量的差距，在信息论中称作 冗余度（redundancy)\n\n重复内容越多，信息量就越小，冗余度就大\n\n不同语言的冗余度差别很大，汉语在所有语言中冗余度是相对小的，这与人们普遍的认识“汉语是最简洁的语言”是一致的\n定量分析\n从10亿数据中找出10个文档，需要27bit的信息\n\n$10亿=2^{30}$， $10=2^3$，30-3=27\n\n其中query本身能提供20bits的信息，这就是搜素中最重要的内容\n\n每个查询串，一般3-5个字符，平均4个，4*5bits/字=20bits\n所以查询命中信息（hit proximity）最重要，占20bits\n\n还需要7bits\n\n文本质量度量（pagerank）\n大众的知识（查询重写、点击模型）\n个性化\n\n西瓜和芝麻\n抓住主要部分，钻在小的芝麻粒做得再好也只是&quot;芝麻&quot;，这里的西瓜就是20bits的内容，即查询文字\n信息的来源：\n\nQRW – query rewrite transform提供20bits的信息，占70%的信息量（hits）\n客户端收集的log数据（点击行为模型），提供3.4bits信息，对相关性排序贡献在40%以上（现阶段更高）\nQRW的重构，根据上下文相关性提供2~3bits的信息（关联性）\n搜索偏好的设定（个性化）\n隐含信息，把可能的结果作为QRW进行查询\n\nQRW功能示例\n当今地球上五十个最值得去的地方\n\n当今，表明结果网页有时效性要求。时间较晚的网页会被排序加权，提供全局属性\n上下文无关冗余词：个，最，去，的\n上下文相关冗余词：当今。提供全局属性后，其在匹配时可作为非必留\n同义词替换\n\n地球：世界\n五十：50\n地方：地域，地区（得分不高，不适合是合适的同义词替换）\n\n\n世界上 五十 值得 地方\n\n技术的两个支柱\n有信息–数据的重要性\n\n\n索引量要尽可能大\n\n\n内容尽可能全\n\n本来信息就不够，还丢掉些就更难做好\n不需要多余小歘歘\n\n\n\n过滤掉噪音：作弊\n\n\n用好信息–模型的重要性\n\n保证将效果接近最佳\n\n所有信息一起用\n\n\n好的模型一定是简约的\n模型里的每一部分原理都讲得清\n\n排序所需的信息\n与查询无关的部分\n\n可分为link-related 和content-related\n\n\n\n完整的网页（内容、title、body、anchor等\n\n\nPagerank（很像专业内的reference）\n\n原始算法未回应时效性方面的关注\n因作弊被污染数据的纠正\n\n今天对网页质量的衡量是全方位的，商业度同样考量，如一些八卦网站pagerank可能很高，但内容权威度很低\n\n\n\n\n\n访问量（popularity分层的依据）\n\n\n信息含量（informative measurement去重）\n\n负向例子：如过短的新闻\n\n\n\n时效性\n\n\n和查询相关的部分\n\n命中：hits\n点击：click information\n关键词之间的关联性（proximity）\n\n距离\n其它语义相关性\n\n同义词\n语法关联性没有语义关联性重要，语义：信息直接对应\n\n\n\n\n查询重写\n商业和作弊信息\n隐含信息\n\n高考（年代），地点\n查询类型（人物，专有名词，问题）\n同义词扩展等\n\n\n关联性本质是上下文信息有助于降低不确定性\n汉字查询词：上下文相关提供的信息约莫占2-3bits\n\n个性化信息\n\n浏览器设置和搜索偏好的设置\n地点\n用户画像\n\n搜索历史：search history,query hints\n喜好站点\n\n\n订阅信息\n前面几次搜索\n前几次点击的表现\n\n个性化是否是良药\n\n\n累死了产品经理，但效果甚微\n\n\n两个人在不同维度权重不同（维度由产品决定），但差异性（距离）过小，不足以累计起足够有意义的信息\n\n\n例如有6个维度\n\n\nA $\\begin{bmatrix} 0.3 &amp;0.2 &amp;0.15 &amp;0.05 &amp;0.2 &amp;0.1 \\end{bmatrix}$\n\n\nB $\\begin{bmatrix} 0.2 &amp;0.4 &amp;0.05 &amp;0.2 &amp;0.05 &amp;0.1 \\end{bmatrix}$\n\n\n大众平均 $\\begin{bmatrix} 0.25 &amp;0.3 &amp;0.1 &amp;0.125 &amp;0.125 &amp;0.1 \\end{bmatrix}$\n\n\n两者之间的KL-divergence\n\nA对B： 0.154 bits\nB对A：0.152 bits\n对大众更小：A：0.102，B：0.081\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n需要比较多的信息才起作用，累计道1bits的信息\n\n\n成本上也要考量，是否要每个人建立一个click model，要做，但不是首要的目标任务\n\n\n排序的一勺烩\n\n信息是原料，排序函数ranking function是菜谱\n把每种信息看成一种变量，多种信息组合搜索空间巨大\n难点就在信息的组合\n\n借鉴统计模型的思想\n\n符合所有可靠的统计数据\n满足所有的边际分布\n尽可能平滑\n\n\n方法论：机器做 Jump Start，专家做经验公式\n\n\n理想情况下各种信息是正交的，现实却是：\n\n大多信息不是统计独立的\n一些信息完全被其它信息覆盖\n\n\n面对现状，对影响力较小的信息，需定期review和删除\n\n召回不是问题，但准确率不高时\n\n内容作弊\n没有找到关键词\n\n我们需帮用户补上（隐含的信息）\n\n\n信息整合的不好 – 模型不好\n\nN种Feature，如何构造scoring function G$\\begin{pmatrix} x1,&amp;x2,&amp;…,&amp;xn \\end{pmatrix}$\n新闻：时效性和质量的平衡\n内容质量和相关性的平衡，等等\n如果一个scoring/ranking的架构不能适应算法，改架构而不是改算法\n\n点击模型放到最前面\nQRW的预计算（保证先于很多的过滤）\n\n\n架构（模型）上要避免同一个原始Feature多次使用\n\n\n\n应对作弊的方法\n笨办法：在网页上做文章\n\n检测无效跳转页面\n检查javascript等\n减少hard code排序算法\n\n聪明办法：在链接上做文章（背后皆有利益驱动）\n\n链接批发商检测\n惩罚购买链接的目的地\n过期域名检测\n\n垃圾的本质\n\n噪音的引入且产生正反馈\nAnti spam（反作弊）的核心是加入信息，降低不确定性\n\n简单的分类器不足够\n如有1/2的spam，至少需要一个bit的信息\nNaive Bayesian Classifier，准确率差不多有90%\n\n\n\n点击模型&amp;客户端的竞争\n\n对相关性的贡献在40%以上\n\n举例，20条信息，等概率的话，信息熵5.7bits\n若点击率分别是1/2，1/4，1/8，信息熵变成2.3bits\n改进了3.4bits，在查询所需的额外7个bits中，相当于提升了3.4/7=50%的效率\n\n\n今天所有搜索引擎，对常见的查询，结果都不差，差异在于不常见的查询。提高这些搜索查询质量实际靠的是大量的数据\n数据成为决定好坏的第一要素，算法倒在其次了\n\n网页本身的数据(完备，新)\n用户点击的数据，点击模型统计数量足够，这种根据点击决定的排名就很准确有效。点击模型贡献了搜索排序至少60%~80%的权重\n\n市占率较小的引擎甚至在这些查询由热变冷之前，还没凑齐那么多数据，因此点击模型就非常不准确\n搜索行业就形成了一种马太效应：后进场的公司也不会坐以待毙，采取办法快速获取数据，收购流量（如微软收购雅虎，其搜索量由原来google的10%陡然提升至20%~30%，点击模型排名准确了许多）\n还有更激进的办法，如toolbar，浏览器甚至输入法来收集用户点击行为\n若一家公司能在浏览器市占率高，即使搜索量小，也能快速改进长尾搜索的质量\n搜索质量的竞争就变成了浏览器或其它客户端软件市占率的竞争\n\n\n\n\n\n爬虫的挑战\n现在互联网非常庞大，商业网络爬虫需要成千上万个服务器，通过高速网络连接起来\n如google在2013年时整个索引大约有1万亿个网页。即使最新最频繁的基础索引也有100亿个网页，假如下载一个网页要1秒钟，那么下载这100亿网页需317年，下载1万亿网页要3.2w年，是人类有文字记载历史的6倍时间\n现在很多网页是用一些脚本语言生成的，页面分析很复杂，要模拟浏览器运行一个网页，才能得到里面隐含的URL，所以要做浏览器内核的工程师来写网络爬虫的解析程序\n\nV8引擎和Chrome应该就是网络爬虫的副产物\n\n神经网络的代际趣闻\n人工神经网络和人脑没半毛钱关系，本质上是一种有向图。但它使用了一个新名词：神经元。让人感觉很神秘，且会联想到仿生学或认知科学等一辈子都难搞懂的东西\n神经网络的规模决定了它能做多大事情，因为节点之间是连接的，复杂度随着网络规模扩大呈指数级上升\n\n经历了几次技术名词被玩坏：神经网络$\\longrightarrow$连接主义$\\longrightarrow$深度学习\n这一代根据网络非常深的特点，起名深度学习\n\n相较于往代运气很好，云计算的兴起使得使用成千上万台计算机成为了可能\n\n\n\n总结\n\n过去几十年智能产品质量的根本：信息\n信息量的提升是这些产品（机器翻译，语音识别，搜索，NLP）进步的根本\n如果没有提供新的信息，不要指望搜索质量有任何提高\n\n如导出式特征，是没有贡献额外信息的，同一个信息用多遍没有用\n\n\n两个支柱\n\n有信息（数据的重要性），常被忽视\n用好信息（模型的重要性）\n\n\n\n赠语\n\n忘掉自己的专长\n\n不要做铁锤人，一锤在手，满眼都是钉。解决问题有很多办法，很多办法比你手上的简单，简单才是美！\n考虑产品是怎样的，不是我最容易做成什么样\n\n\n在产品方案选择上，关注每一个细节，但在过程中要建立信息秩序\n在工程方案选择上，集中精力解决95%的问题，不浪费精力在5%的问题上，不要低估简单方法的有效性\n\n完成比完美重要，经常来说可以提早很多时间将变化提供给用户，且带来质的提高，雪中送炭；\n暂时放弃的20%的收益，对用户而言通常是锦上添花\n坚持选择简单方案另一个原因，是容易解释每一步和方法背后的道理，便于出问题时查错，且容易找到今后改进的目标\n\n\n用数据说话，再有sense的人也会犯错。Never get any conclusion without data\n提高自己的境界\n\n之前苹果的东西为什么做那么好\n境界高了，才知道关键技术在哪里\n\nipod的关键技术，google的关键技术\n\n\n\n\n最好的指引也是不要去做什么（可少犯很多错误），节省很多可能做无用功的时间\n所有产品最终都是要盈利的\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["算法"]},{"title":"敏感信息加密","url":"/%E6%95%8F%E6%84%9F%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86.html","content":"\n敏感数据的加密存储无论从国家，行业及监管合规层面，亦或是单纯提高自身信息安全水平的层面看均是势在必行的一则工作。\n\n业界实践中大批量数据的加解密一般选择对称加密算法，其计算效率远高于非对称算法。主流商用对称算法包括美国FIPS标准定义的AES算法，中国国标定义的SM4算法，国内肯定是用国密算法\n\n国密可不是简单的算法设计的问题，它包含了: 物理和环境安全（如电子门禁和视频监控）、远程管理通道安全、日志文件加密安全、网络和通信安全、应用和数据安全，人员管理和制度建设等立体化多角度的要求。\n密码学基础\n柯克霍夫原则（Kerckhoffs‘s Principle）\n有奥古斯特.柯克霍夫 于19世纪提出：即使密码系统的任何细节已为人所知，只要密匙（key）未泄露，它应该也是安全的。通俗理解也即一个密码学算法的安全与否不应基于算法本身是否为外界所知，即通过让算法变成黑盒子无法提高算法本身的安全性。当前密码学基本都基于这一原则进行设计，即算法细节公开，通过密钥的安全性来实现加解密算法的安全性。\n为何不能自行设计加解密算法\n违反柯克霍夫原则。业界目前普遍使用的算法，基本都是由权力机关牵头，众多业界专家反复论证多年并达成共识才作为标准公开使用的，安全性有保障。\n在应用层进行数据加解密\n从发生层次大体可分为：前端，后端，数据库，文件IO层，硬盘加密 五大类\n\n前端加密发生在系统安全边界之外，其运行环境安全性无法保障，首先被排除\n文件IO和硬盘，因为其发生层级低，能获取的元数据少，例如文件IO加密，系统仅能看到数据库底层映射的二进制文件，所以也只能对该文件进行加解密处理，无法再进一步区分哪些数据需加密，哪些不需要。这样对不同数据的管控能力基本为零，有悖于业界数据分类加密的安全思想。\n对比后端加密即数据库加密两种方案，数据库种类，版本繁多。不同种类，版本数据库对国密的支持能力也千差万别。如此看，后端加密（应用层）加密就成为最合适的方案（对第三方软件侵入性低，兼容历史现状）。\n\n敏感信息表改造\n一列字段换两列密文\n针对一个敏感字段，需新增两列密文字段\n\n摘要索引：存储原始值+盐（不可逆哈希）计算后的密文字段\n密文：存储密钥对称加密后的密文，密钥最好最小粒度到列级\n\n业务需要明文时，可用封装提供的解密SDK提取明文\n\n\n\n\n存储和计算资源估计要增加（每个明文字段要加上2个密文字段），密文是变长的（国密SM4算法分组对齐加密，二进制结果再转base64编码），摘要字段长度固定\n\n\n密钥策略\n\n摘要索引盐值整个公司统一\n\n不可逆，窃取到数据也要通过数据碰撞的方式来对明文进行猜测\n减少对称加密后数据无法关联的弊端（故需在可接受更广范围内使用相同颜值），关联计算比对值是否相等时直接使用\n\n\n密钥每个应用都不一样，甚至每一列密钥都不同\n\n考虑到密钥泄漏风险，更新密钥的代价，综合得出的策略。密钥应用范围越小，要更新数据的范围越小，要跟随更换密钥的应用越少。故范围越小越好\n行业监管要求标准各异，不会有统一的密钥期，统一技术方案方不会主动发起密钥失效\n\n\n\n密钥过期/泄漏如何更换\n依赖我们在加密数据前增加的标识位信息\n\n记录密钥版本，在切换密钥时知道如何解密\n记录算法信息，让SDK可判断算法无需向服务端询问\n包含一个MagicNumber，可快速排除非本系统加密的数据\n\n看到待弃用密钥加密的数据，那么就在解密提取明文信息后使用新密钥更新加密\n密文改造的挑战\n\n模糊字段查询\n\n密文索引有诸多方案，主要解决思路是将信息分片，如将11位手机号分成3/4/4三段，允许各自按约定规则达成模糊查询\n\n\n手写SQL\n\n这对彻底改造干净字段的处理逻辑带来不少的工作量，select * from也可能引入一定的逻辑风险\n应借此机会构建数据服务层，利用AOP降低应用和数据对象操作的耦合度，以注解方式标注要加密处理的字段，收口进行处理\n\n\n存储过程\n\n无在存储过程上的加解密方案，在加解密改造过程中，存储过程逻辑需要被改造和去除\n若存储过程仅为了搬运数据，可适当改造保留\n\n\n加字段性能风险\n\n老版本数据库在增加密文字段时的执行时间风险需要关注\n历史数据清洗会引起同步机制大量更新延迟\n\n\n\n催生的设计变革\n设计变革\n\n集中管理涉敏数据比分散在不同应用中好，相当于提供一个统一的数据服务，需涉敏信息原文时，都来这里取值\n加密后无可避免会有特权人员要对原始明文进行查阅确认的需求，如生产排障，事件调查。需要一种功能来应对这种密文或脱敏信息的即席查询需求\n授权长度可控，例如对人的授权通常为15天，30天，60天，365天不等。权限上也分脱敏查询权限，明文查询权限两类\n\n闭环管控流程变革\nflowchart LR\nsubgraph 增量\n\tA[新增应用\\库\\表\\字段]\n\tsubgraph 上线前-纳入安全开发流程\n\tB[需求评审存储加密需求分析&架构评审]-->C[安全开发安全策略申请&存储加密功能集成]-->D[安全测试/上线]\n\tend\n\tsubgraph 上线后-定期扫描监测\n\tE[风险控制和监督管理每月定期扫描，识别违规上线应用、字段]\n\tend\n\tA-->B\n\tD-->E\nend\nsubgraph 存量\nAA[存量应用\\库\\表\\字段]-->BB[制定整改计划]\nend\nBB-->C\nE--应加密未加密-->BB\n架构组成模块关系\n\n对于线条多的flowchart图，mermaid还真的胜任不佳\n\nflowchart LR\n\tsubgraph employee域\n\tA[(KMS加密机)]--秘钥管理-->B(((加解密服务)))\n\tC[/敏感数据扫描系统/]--敏感数据地图-->B\n\tB-..->|私钥加密策略|D((加解密SDK))\n\tB-..->|私钥加密策略|E[\\历史数据加密清洗工具\\]\n\tB-..->|私钥加密策略|F[[安全访问代理]]\n\tend\n\tG[员工]--查询加密数据-->F\n\tsubgraph user域\n\tBB[/应用服务\\]--数据保存-->CC[(应用数据库)]-->DD>ETL任务搬运数据]-->EE[(大数据平台)]FFfalse\n\tend\n\tAA[用户]--应用采集用户敏感数据-->BB\n\tD -..-x |加密增量数据及提供解密|BB\n\tD -..-x |加密增量数据及提供解密|DD\n\tD -..-x |加密增量数据及提供解密|FF\n\tF-->|涉敏查询审批动态解密脱敏|EE\n\tF-->|涉敏查询审批动态解密脱敏|CC\n\tC-..->|全字段采样扫描识别敏感信息|CC\n\tC-..->|全字段采样扫描识别敏感信息|EE\n\tE -..-o |加密存量数据|CC\n\tE -..-o |加密存量数据|EE\n改造步骤\nstateDiagram\n\tdirection LR\n\tA : 去扫描平台完成库、表、列等元数据信息扫描和确认\n\tB : 登录加解密服务平台配置策略等信息\n\tC : 策略文件下载\n\tD : SDK加解密功能集成\n\tE : 业务系统调用\n\t[*] --> A\n\tA --> B\n\tB --> C\n\tC --> D\n\tD --> E\n\tE --> [*]\n明确数据加密范围，上下游和关键风险后，接下来就是开干\n\n在涉敏数据表添加相应密文字段\n申请加解密sdk\n完成SDK完成增量加密\n存量数据加密清洗\n应用程序使用密文数据\n应用程序停写明文且清理历史明文\n\n最终目标：删除存量敏感明文\n\n明文如何清理\n\nDB不删除字段是例行做法\n按不同数据库方案兼容，写入“0”清除原明文敏感信息是目前兼容性最广的方案\n\n\n大数据环境怎么玩\n大数据的特别点\n大数据环境对数据的使用，更多是探索，挖掘等不确定性的使用。最具探索特质的带有主观能动性的数据工程师，而不是被设计出来完成固定任务的系统。理想化来说，大数据系统这使用数据的是分析师而不是系统\n\n\n数据权属主体是组织，组织的工程师是使用数据的主体\n\n\n几乎不存在数据生产者，因此数据资产主要来自于生产数据资产的使用权、使用权让渡\n\n\n数据所有权是业务系统所有，当生产环境数据通过ETL传输到大数据环境后，使用权发生了变化。若在大数据环境降低多源数据密钥不同对数据分析工作效率带来的影响，应考虑变更数据所有权（按大数据自己的密钥加密）\n\n多元数据汇聚（不同部门密文不同，摘要也不同），必须以所有权让渡的方式进行\n\n\n\n有无一种方法可允许数据属主保留数据资产所有权，同时允许大数据环境的分析师可对多源数据进行联合分析？  众多技术路线中有一路隐私计算，对密文二次加密后密文结果相同（相同明文两次加密后密文结果相同）\n\n在深度模型训练这种数据向量化的场景适用，但对数据分析师这种人工参与的场景有些理想化了\n\n\n\n\n\n加密没商量\n大数据加密方案将大数据也看作一个应用，不限于诸如Hadoop，spark，hive等大数据相关框架的应用场景。\n\n从加解密视角看，大数据应用是指数据来源多样化（包含使用不同密钥加密的数据或明文）的应用。\n\n应考虑提供各部门级别的解密授权特性（针对要获取大量应用解密授权）\n\n获得授权后，对于该权限内的加解密数据，都可在授权有效期内解密且无需更新配置文件，避免每增加一个数据源进行解密授权申请和策略文件更新下发\n\n大数据应用的敏感数据输出也可以转加密（以下游形式加密好，申请下游加密授权），要么直接以密文输出（此时下游申请大数据应用的解密授权）\n糅合那么多数据密钥怎么玩最妥当\n是一个求取平衡的过程，一个极端是大数据应用内所有数据用一把密钥进行解密，从管理及落地角度出发看比较简单，但从数据安全角度看密钥使用范围过大，存在前面讲过的问题。\n每条数据使用不同的密钥，带来的是管理成本和系统复杂度的提升\n从实践上看，按照不同的敏感数据类型进行密钥加解密是较合适的策略。如手机号使用同一把密钥，身份证号用另一把密钥，这样在管理成本，系统复杂度，安全性上能达到一个相对平衡的状态。\n多说几句\n\n不同法人主体间数据流动须有相应授权才对\n从数据安全角度，无论出入，不建议明文传输敏感数据\n解密授权意味着被授权方对敏感数据有了读取明文的能力，伴随而来就是密钥扩散的风险，也可能用此授权解密了非预期数据。\n反向加密授权就是敏感数据被污染的风险（可通过单项散列数据特征校验码来缓解此风险）\n密钥扩散的风险可通过单独准备一把数据共享密钥，用此密钥单独加密需共享数据的方式降低密钥扩散的风险\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"教育改变命运","url":"/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html","content":"\n\n\n\n内容的主体来自于畅销书作家吴军博士在17年《大学之路》书发布会的一次主题演讲，外加自己的一点杂糅感触\n\n悖论\n\n\n教育改变命运\n\n\n清北毕业生都买不起学区房，将来孩子还上清北干什么\n\n\n社会上常听见一种例子，上了大学白领工作，还不如一个保姆收入多，用以佐证教育无用论。但是教育改变命运又是一种历史共识。\n真是一对冤家，这问题是出在学校、社会、家长那，还是出在学生呢？原因皆而有之吧，开始。\n多面看问题\n学习（不限于读书）是为了明理，涨知识，在遇到事情的时候能开阔思路，而不是就会着急，积累下来你可以在更大的平台学习知识，展示自己。\n教育资源不平衡是与世界接轨\n\n不是中国特色，而是世界问题，竞争使然\n\n\n市场经济的成功，常让大家迷信了市场的魔力，仿似一切东西推给市场，就能有效解决。No，不要太相信市场化。教育资源不平衡是一个世界性的问题，并不仅是中国的痛。在今天的中国，三线城市里一个像样的中学，可能教育水平比30年前很多北京高中都好，教师水平，实验条件都要好。但现在中国最好的大学，最好的中学，你的孩子仍然未必进得去。\n90年代清华一年招2200人，30年后呢，现在3400，每年的量都不高。90年代还基本都是凭高考分数进，个别靠什么竞赛头名进（如计算机比赛第一名），但总量也就二三十人。现在3400人中，55%高考进，45%各种各样进，有如奥运冠军，奥数金牌，健美操加分（奶茶妹妹），还有一些自主招生，这样一来，靠高考进的还没90年代多。\n这就说明教育资源永远是个金字塔情况，顶尖的永远很难进，这就是现实，必须得认清。\n大学教育扩招解决问题了么？\n结果大学生多了，教育模式却跑步没跟上。大学生群体增多了，实在的结果是提升高层次人才规模，以与经济发展的水平和产业升级相匹配，也消解了人民群众日益增高的精神文化需求矛盾。没有这些基数打底，科技的发展加速度肯定是不稳的。\n硬币的另一面，也给管理者提出了新的挑战，企业和国家的治理模式，也要跟上民众教育水平的变化。这也是为什么很多老板创立的企业文化不适应90后的员工的深层原因之一，世界终将是年轻人的，管理者们只能迎接改变。\n阶层已固化吗\n大家狂谈内卷（战术上的勤奋，战略上的懒惰），到了一种网络上多到一种让人想吐的地步。殊不知向上的通道必然艰辛，向下的大门永远打开。你维持了现有的阶层可能并不差，没有走上去有各种各样的原因。\n\n什么叫内卷，换一种说法，指一种社会或人发展到某一阶段，达到一种确定形式后，便停滞不前，难以转化为另一种高级模式的现象，从而把自我锁死在低水平状态上，周而复始地循环。如何解决内卷化陷进，就是注入外界资源，对一个人而言，教育正是一个人解决此问题最好的外界资源，终身成长\n\n有人网络发言，说我从一个小地方来，在北京上了大学，快毕业时根本找不到工作，真个人感觉都不好了，抱怨这个社会不公平，拼颜值，拼爹。其实这个社会不欠你任何东西，从一个县城来也好，农村也罢，到了北京，已经是人生很成功的一步了，某种意义上你应该对自己满意，不要对自己太苛刻；另一点来说，你有自己的特长，你努力学习，用功肯吃苦，这就是你的优点。但这个世界上资源各种各样，长得漂亮也是一种资源，爹有本事也是一种资源，有些时候你不要光看到自己的独立，实际上那些富二代很多并不是都在打游戏。\n从阶层说，若分100层，你从第80层上升到60层已经是不错的事儿了，不要指望一下上升到第5层，第5层的人资源比你不知道多多少，他可能只努力20%，比你努力100%能做的事还多，这就是现实。每个人应该对教育，对自己有一个比较客观的预期，这才是比较好的。\n我们听到的教育改变命运的名故事，在国外说来说去总是那几个代表，在中国反倒身边例子很多，是不是证明这种情况本身就是稀缺的少数，是个困难的事儿，在中国反而是做得非常好，给了大家希望。\n你痛苦在于追求错误的东西（或维持所得理所当然），照内卷人朴素的逻辑，中国在金字塔向上爬的过程中，挤掉的国家，有一个甘心让位的？中国往上爬的过程是轻松的？位置就那么宽，上面的一个个都想踹一脚摔你下去。\n大富靠命，小富靠运\n其实很大程度上，最后并不是考试成绩决定了你最后成功与否，开玩笑的说，命运早就注定了，例如卵巢彩票或大时代，而教育本身就是让你的命运变得更好一点。\n而人一辈子不会都是坏运气，也不会都是好运气。\n如果说有起跑线，那么父母的格局是孩子的第一个起跑线，也就是说你哪怕有钱，到了智能时代以后，可能你遇到过几次很倒霉的事情，你一辈子的钱就没了。所以，一两次好运是帮不了人的，世界上任何人不可能永远是坏运气。活到今天的所有人没有五十代贫农的，五十代贫农的人早淘汰了，我们活到今天的人祖上都是王侯将相，或者你的亲戚是王侯将相，所以你不要跟我吹我祖上是哪个朝代的状元，哪个朝代的大员大户。那么就说明人永远有好运的时候，也有恶运的时候，在美国，所有中了千万以上大奖的那些人，基本上不出10年都成了穷光蛋，只有一家人例外，中奖后跑到一个小镇隐姓埋名过普通工薪阶层的生活。\n\n运气这事很重要，所有成功人士，总会感谢说:&quot;老天爷特别照顾我，给了我好运气，所以成功了”，并不是吹牛说，我一定比所有人强多少，而那个事干不成的人，可能也只是运气差一点。而约翰霍普金斯大学的前校长就曾经对全校毕业生做过一个演讲，就是讲运气的，他说：你们之所以能走到这一步，很大程度上是你的运气好，你要感谢这个运气，你自己要知道自己几斤几两，还举了杜鲁门的例子。\n\n不要指望在教育功效上每一个人都能成为火车发明者史蒂芬森，从最底层一下子到最顶层，认识清楚自己所在的位置，认识清楚自己的目标，教育是一个途径。\n时代的力量\n你所处的时代就是你的命运，一辈子能有多大成就，首先取决于你的时代。\n全世界75个最富有的人中20%出生在同一个国家，且都是在1830-1840年这10年间，这就是美国的第二次工业革命期间。洛克菲勒，老梅隆等都是那个时代的人，而中国现在所有的富人基本都赶上了改革开放的浪潮，所以，生在一个好时代，你的命运就被决定了，你要相信你这个时代。\n决定你命运的，首先是大时代，所以你到哪个山就要唱哪个山的歌。过去30多年是很好的时代，今后20年也会是不错的时代，该做什么就做什么。过去30多年我们中国人最大的不幸就是不相信这个时代，跟这个时代倒着走。\n时代也是你的运\n照吴军博士的说法，时代是命的一种，我听到过一个关于东方传统谚语的现代解读，将时代归到运中，也挺有意思，这里也一并奉上。\n一命二运三风水四积阴德五读书\n命是你的性格；运是你所在的时代；风水是你所在的行业/平台;阴德是你的善良，正所谓德位相配; 排到第五才是读书，都说明了教育不是一锤定音的按钮，你要有客观的期待。\n教育能改变命运吗？\nYes\n东西方国家都在各取所需的学习，阶层已经实打实的明显重现于这个古老的国度。在美国，社会的阶层分化很明显，基本上只有5%的人能从底层的20%上升到上层的20%，在实践中只要将底层的孩子与周围糟糕的环境隔离，他们都是可塑之才。但是前提是一定要好好读书，且要有读公立学校，拥有一技之长。例子如果想了解的话，可以去看美国的KIPP项目，但还是重复那句话，能爬到Top阶层，没那么简单，你要有合适的预期。\n很多基础教育学校其实像衡水中学，这些孩子在申请大学的时候，可能上不了常青藤大学，但他们可以上到州立大学。毕业后找到一份体面的工作，走出自己家庭所在的阶层。\n搞清楚自己的教育定位\n教育也分技能教育和博雅教育之分，用更接地气的说法来讲，衡水中学所培养的人和清华附中培养的不是一类人，让衡水中学像北京顶级中学那样培养人是错的，社会需求不一样，针对的家庭教育方式也是不一样的。蓝翔技校的毕业生要比白领赚得多，因为他们掌握了基本技能，这一点上无可厚非。在美国，私立名校的教育是为了更高一层的进阶准备的，但公立教育总体来讲就是技能教育。很可惜，我们国家也在大步学习西方这套东西，只是不愿撕破那层窗户纸。\n主题虽然是教育上升，但讲个偏题的，中国80%的人需要的是技能教育，我国的本科毕业率毕竟也就5%左右，不要受舆论主题吵吵一叶障目只看到5环内。\n中产上升注定艰辛\n实际上，中产阶层的孩子是最辛苦的，平时要上课，补习，还要学各种艺术体育等。没没办法，中产阶层要想进入精英阶层，就是最辛苦的。因为，你的孩子一方面要具备一技之长（接受技能教育），否则没有立足之地，另一方面，你认为的精英阶层需要具备的技能，需要在他这一代人中补齐。向上的通道太窄了，而教育也不会是轻松的，只会更辛苦，而向下的大门永远敞开，不辛苦就会面临阶层下滑。\n在美国也一样，中产阶层的孩子也是最辛苦的，在真正的上层社会，拥有的资源是别人没法比的，例如川普的女婿，据说练算数都算不清楚，但因为它父亲给哈佛捐了几百万，所以他轻松的进入了哈佛\n清醒反思\n学校里教的适合谋生不适合发财，适合无产不适合有产，中产只是学校技能学的好的无产而已。我们（中国）的教育太功利，筛选出来的是欲望最强顺便脑子不笨的。\n学校两功能\n\n\n第一孩子去动物化，基本规则和礼貌教好，不闹事不瞎折腾\n\n\n第二充当给社会提供成熟产品的流水线，人力市场需要啥产品就生产啥产品（孩子也不是你的孩子，而是社会资源）。\n\n阳春白雪搞艺术，心无旁骛做科研。 经济实用款最好使，观赏和情绪价值怎么都得排在面包之后。\n\n\n\n快乐教育与否\n快乐教育的功能是培养未来的普通劳动者，是对平民子弟的一种放弃，这就是教育的分层，资质普通的学生随波逐流，只掌握最基本的知识。\n美国的教育在快乐教育的基础上，还有办法将天才型学生甄别和选拔出来，在它好的教育体系下是德智体美劳全面发展的。再加上其能容忍失败的社会氛围，更使得它能涌现一些特立独行，不按常理出牌的天才型人物，能提出一些原创性思想。\n中国普通劳动者水平不差，但不利于偏才怪才的发挥和脱颖而出，故我们在科技的应用层面更强一点，美国的特点能吸引到世界上其它国家的一流人才，加强了它在科技领域的优势。\n起跑线\n起跑线虽然存在，但教育的重心不在学校在家中，但是品格是父母能给孩子最好的礼物，你自己是否热爱学习，如何待人接物，人生态度是否不屈不挠，不向逆境低头，传递给孩子更加重要。\n2021年的双减\n2021突出重拳，消灭了基础学科的校外培训。政策从来不是针对有钱人（群体小）的，政策是为了降低绝大部分人的军备竞赛烈度。敞开拼校外，大城市能把小地方打的抬不起头来，且市场能把所有体制内的好老师变成有钱人的专属老师，毕竟市场经济最擅长分层。针对不同财力的人，提供不同的服务。放任此种方式，校外就会搞出另一个教育体系。幼儿园比大学贵，就是一种体现。关键是这么折腾，也没有什么明显产出，跟电影院里人都站着和都站着都一样，只是体验差了一截。\n关于双减的争议很多，但改革都是在摸索中试错中向前推进，大家需要适应一段时间，当下不争议可能是最好的策略，当初的改革开放争议也很大。双减定为国策，会持续执行很多年，将来最终的目的是给家长减负，解决生育率的问题，包括后续要最终成型的所有细则，避免陷入最终要考移民来解决国家人口结构的结局上去。\n影响谁\n影响最大的中产（钱是整个系统的bug，有钱人不和你们一起玩的），他们赚的钱不够下一代丰衣足食，希望重现一把昔日靠教育的胜利，有学历崇拜。补课对学霸和学渣都没什么用，这层窗户纸没啥不好意思捅破的，父母操心的学渣，补课是救不了的。把高中基础知识掌握扎实了，能考个本科，基础问题弄不明白，进阶题目也是打酱油。老师课上讲的你都掌握不好，你还上什么课外班呢？课外班使得学生上课的注意力下降了，有课外班兜底思维的学生往往课外班也兜不住底。\n承认现实\n抓重点，扎实认真\n我们多都听过这句，脑子很好就是粗心，您那不是粗心，您那是缺一块。一道题涉及5个知识点，你只知道4个，最后解答出来好像快要对了，又没全对，又不承认现实，说自己粗心，不反思相同错误重复犯的毛病会持续一辈子。\n道理推广一下，一个app，几十万行代码，经常使用的不到5%。一个人性格深不见底，把事情搞砸的往往就是那么几个点。高速公路那么多，10%的部分跑来90%的车。人的工作学习也是一样的，经常用的东西就那么多，最重要的就是保证这部分内容不能出错，人能做到下次不在同一个地方摔倒，进步的比什么都快。贪多，最后容易搞得哪个部分都乱七八糟。\n大部分孩子学习不好，往往是两大原因：内驱不足，核心投入时间太少。\n内驱不足\n内驱不足是自己不想学，找不到学习的理由，这很普遍，绝大部分人就没有什么内生动力，一辈子都没有。学习的时候凑合着学，工作来凑合着干，生了孩子凑合着养，大部分人对长期目标不响应，但很少有人对短期激励不响应的，想想朋友圈里的砍一刀，为了打副本和兄弟们通宵战斗的网吧少年们。学霸们学习好往往也不是立志要建设祖国为人民服务，他们往往是从学习中获得了持续的短期成就感。同样公司的激励制度同样这些年在从长期激励在往短期激励转向，长期激励能筛选出大神，可是绝大部分人都被筛掉了。大人都缺少进取心，指望小孩更是痴人说梦。\n核心投入时间不足\n一个苏式冷笑话，他们假装给我们发工资，我们假装工作。太多人都在装上学，大家都懂。学习这种事，不在于在书桌旁呆多久，而在于有多长的时间真实投入，太多人狂补课，可真实投入时间少的可怜，毕竟注意力就那么点，太过分散可能哪一部分都不够用。类似高考或者工作这类长期斗争，最后胜出的往往都是性格的胜出。考清北需要脑子特别好，考个211主要是性格和习惯，其实985也是性格和习惯，养成好习惯，稳定的情绪，把预习，复习，认真做作业都做到了比什么都强，公务员考试律师资格等，都一样，不需要太强的脑子，需要慢功出细活，每一步走扎实，自然出成果，慢慢来，急也没有用。如果课堂上的没掌握，指望校外辅导不现实，都掌握了，也就不需要什么课外辅导了。\n面对双减回归纯粹\n校外补课纯粹只能锦上添花，没法雪中送炭（寄希望于补课也不比拜佛强多少）。所以双减把资本的煽动冷下来，绝对是好事，大家停下来想想该怎么搞，了解一下短板在哪，怎么激励，怎么保底，认认真真，扎扎实实走好每一步。\n结语\n最重要的是找到适合自己的位置。如果你在20岁是相信绝对公平，说明你是一个有情怀的人，但到了40岁，你依然相信绝对公平，那你就有点傻了。世界是不可能绝对公平的，因为一旦出现绝对公平，世界就停止进步了。\n蔡崇信的看法：有一两个专长，培养到前10%，告诉别人我是某一个领域的专家，这是得到尊重(成功）的前提。也即在某一领域追求专业卓越，将为未来的成功奠定坚实基础。\n从国内10~15年的时间段来说，还是偏向有一门技术比较好，甚至一些偏门的技术都不错。以我国的考古发掘和博物馆建设/翻新速度，这门基本一直需求不断，大量的钱在往文化上投资。考古甚至是刚性的技术性门槛的铁饭碗，还能衍生出第二职业写小说，😋\n教育资源永远是不够的，今天的中国高等教育同质性太强，每所大学都要建设成研究性大学，其实有些学校不适合，有些大学可能应该好好地搞教学，培养学生的一技之长，让这些学校大学毕业以后能够去发挥自己才干的地方。\nLiberal Arts Education\n在中国普遍称为素质教育，香港称为博雅教育，台湾通称为通识教育，虽然叫法不同，大家都认为在教授专业知识的同时，大学应注重通识教育（涵盖文学，技术，历史等），提供人文训练，培养人文素质。\n专业化的教育是让你掌握某种劳动技能，越垂直的专业人员只能对自己的本职工作负责，而无法对更大的整体工作负责。在技术创新非常快的时代，专业的确立的同时，还要主动寻求通识教育去提高个人素质，营养自身，抵御波动。\n\n我遭遇河南省高考素质教育改革的试点第一年，也踩在大学扩招的浪潮(超重点线20分，不在扩招浪潮应该也能考上所学校），现在回头也理解大综合科目的主观题比平时练习的大很多，是有道理的，只是正好切中自己自我观点和表达的软肋（各小学科综合客观题摸底我一直是学校头马，几近满分），若是客观题多就又陷入重理轻文的培养套路上，背离精神\n\n现在学科细分越来越严重，知识台阶越来越高，要出创造性的人才，又回到了要比拼科技积累的阶段，所以现在把STEM模式搬出来，企图在小学阶段就开始着手，没有坏处，物质条件也具备了，没办法，只能动脑筋让有能力有意愿的人能跳脱出来，其余的就走技能（快乐）教育吧，（stem 教育这一块数学是基石，数学是认知社会的一种逻辑，最好对这块不要放弃，或搞得孩子没自信）咱不去评断STEM你要不要拥抱，也就吴军博士的一些讲述做些摘要，他所处的阶层肯定是重视博雅/通识教育的。\n如果你在技能教育之外，也关注基础教育里的更多，可以看看这段章节，个人觉得语文和历史的精华表述还是有的，否则本文可以跳到末尾了。\n\nSTEM：Science，Technology，Engineering，Mathematics\n还有一种扩展是 STEAM，多加了一个 ART，这应该是培训界塞进去的，官方没有这种提法\n\n学语文\n📌 Why ?\n\n理解问题和表达思想：自己的想法要用合适的语言对合适的观众表达出来，而不是为了一点点简单的文采。\n语文是职业化的基本训练。在职场中，要做职业化的人，当你写邮件都写不明白，讲半天讲不清楚自己的意思，这样会给人的感觉是，这个人不职业化，我们都希望我们找的会计师，律师，医生是个职业化的人，而不是业余的，语文不好，永远给人别人一种业务的印象\n进入上流社会的敲门砖。不同阶层的用语是完全不一样的，学好语文是你说出来的话，用的词，能够达意准确，有的人为什么叫土豪，因为他数来说去都是那些基本词汇，完全没有文采，这是语文的重要性。很多人表达好就会一个词–好。有些时候你都不知道他说好是真的好，还是他知道这件事了。\n\n\n高等教育在最早的时候，大学只教拉丁文，为什么？三个原因\n\n读拉丁文的圣经\n那时学术语言是拉丁文，就是要训练你做事的职业化\n学会拉丁文，就学会了上流社会的语言。就像白话文早就有了，但只有读书人会写文言文，文言文就是你进入更高阶层的敲门砖\n\n\n语文要安排兴趣的时间，其依赖人文修养和广泛的阅读，要主动选择好的文本，克服浮躁和庸俗，把阅读变成兴趣驱动的习惯，最终会转化为热爱。\n学数学\n培养科学的常识和基本的素养，讲究逻辑和方法。每一种解决数学题的法，都是可以用于工作和创业（这句自己并没有通感）\n为什么很多人学不好，其实很多人题就读错了或没读懂。那是语文的问题，数学学不好1/3是语文不好。老师教了基本知识，也教了大多数解题逻辑，但分析和逻辑也是磨炼考验，在竞赛题和拉分题中，逻辑还是要从自己的基础知识和思索中来。\n数学需要整块的时间，需要高度的专注和独立思考，要敢于迎难而上，最好要集中精力进入心流的状态，才能深入理解概念，解破难题。\n学英语\n语言工具的学习重在记忆和重复，在于持续的积累，充分利用好碎片的时间，如晨读通勤睡前，巩固单词和句型，靠日常自律形成语感\n学历史\n历史在英语叫history（男人的故事），当然女权主义说应该叫herstory，但历史绝不是要讲故事。以史为鉴不容易，资治通鉴让皇帝们不要做荒唐事，司马光后的昏君照样数不胜数，远远比明君多，因为条件在变化，加之历史长河，各种正负向的例子你都能找得到，关键选择还是求心及审时度势。例如土木堡之变于谦守京城，打退蒙古人，救了明朝，换到崇祯时，应对李自成也这么干，结果城破自己上吊死了。\n美国历史说最好把历史当做研究，如何搞？给你有个问题，你把这个问题解决掉，自己去找一些证据，发表你的观点，证实你的观点，这就是做研究。证实了一句话，历史没有真相，只残存一些道理，你去找到一些道理就可以了。\n了解过去有助于我们变成一个更好的人，这有点像咱们说的以史为鉴，因为历史是在一个很长的时间线看问题的，从历史出发，你就可能了解未来。学历史是还会了解世界的多样性，会变得更包容，这个世界不像我们周围的生活这么简单。\n\n我有印象的是，少量基础教育的历史老师不是照本宣科，而是对照在同一年份东西方相互串讲，这当时就给我给震惊了，原来同时发生了好多事情，甚至还有联系，这个联系就是最美的地方，这远比让我们记和背的事情有意思多了。\n\n学科学\n不是信仰科学，只有宗教才是信仰，科学是怀疑，科学是要不断被证伪的，今天看上去正确的结论，明天可能就过时了。\n牛顿定律到了光速的的时候就不成立了就是例子。德国拜耳公司同一个化学家发明了两种药，阿司匹林和海洛因，刚开始的时候海洛因是个不得了的药，因为它可以让人戒掉吗啡，但后来发现它危害比吗啡还大。刚开始出现阿司匹林的时候，大家说这是一个坏的不得了的药，因为它副作用太大了，但后来把它做成了肠溶片，不在胃里溶解，到肠里溶解就没事了。所以换一个新环境，就会有新认知，科学就是这样不断地在进步。\n高等教育认知失调\n年毕业生数量\n当前每年大学毕业生接近1000w，从2000年到2022年，高校在校生人数从550w上升到4000w，年毕业生从100w增加到1000w，高等教育完成了从精英到大众普及的转变。所有的学历都贬值了，包括博士的毕业量。\n\n相较于美丽国年毕业生人数也才近400w人, 不过按人口总量来说，我们尚未追上US，毕竟总人口我们也是其4倍\n\n\n\n90年之前毕业的大学生，一共加起来才5000w人。\n\n\n近来5年中国新增4000w大学生，4000w什么概念，是全韩国的人口！\n\n\n2035年，我们中国45岁以下的青年劳动力都是90后，一共4.8亿人，共2.4亿人受过大学教育，全世界没发生过这样的情况。\n\n\n这个变化，对中国的经济结构和社会制度都会引来重大的变化牵动力量。\n中国早期的经济奇迹，是因地制宜地使用好人力资源，是利用3亿初中毕业的农民工结合出口导向和劳动密集型产业完成了如此成就，从人均800美金干到了8000美金。后面20年，这么好的人口结构资源，用好是个挑战。\n博士的通胀\n我国博士培养始于1978年，首年仅招了18个，但只有6人获得学位顺利毕业。\n90年代开始，招生规模一直处于年增长率9%的扩张中，95年首破招生1w人，99年首破毕业1w人。\n08年我国博士学位授予数首超美国。截止2007年，累积授予博士学位者达24w（这一数字到19年增长到88w，21年到101.85w），硕士则有180w。\n至2017年，40年间，博士招生规模从18人涨到了8.39w人，算是高速扩张。2020年毕业博士6.62w，21年毕业7.2w（当年70w硕士毕业），23年7.52w博士毕业，还在扩张中，大头还是去高校和科研机构（近40%），有稍超20%能去企业就业。\n七普的博士人口比重0.072%（还没算去世的博士），还低于主流发达国家水平（美国约1%）。一般来讲，教育强国人才占人口比重，博士1%，硕士10%，本科30%，换言之，1/3的人受过高等教育，才称得上一个真正教育强国\n巨变的认知滞后\n这个巨变不是到今天才完成的，从十几年前的2011年，毕业人数已经超过600w，在21世纪初的10年就完成了其它国家基本用了30-50年时间的高等教育的转变。如此短时间的剧变，确实会导致一个问题，那就是认知滞后。当前还有一些人认为上大学就是鲤鱼跳龙门，其实那得是上某几所大学才是。\n50，60，70里的绝大多数人都没受到高等教育，发现这个社会最好的资源都被身边极少数上过大学的同龄人掌握着，于是就对自己的下一代充满了殷切的期待，对通过高等教育改变命运，从社会底层跃迁到中上层充满信心，这种认知有些还相当固化。\n社会大多数人的固有认知与高等教育已经完成大众化的客观事实反差过大，认知的改变是需要时间的，我们发展的太快了，以致现在很多人还没反应过来。如果你也用50年的时间慢慢改变，认知和事实同步改变，人们是可以坦然接受大学毕业后从事一份普通的劳动工作，能去华尔街的仍然是极少数的名校精英，但是做卡车司机和修路工人也很正常，职业歧视也少了。\n说就业难的大学生不是找不到工作，而是找不到期望中的工作。供给量大了，稀缺性消失了，大家都是同样水平的普通人了。如果仍然把自己当做精英，工作当然难找了。工作难找，大学还要不要考？当然，如果你是普通人且追求上升变化的机会，上大学仍然可取，哪怕上大学和几十年前上初中变成一个水平，初中和文盲更是有差别不是。大学普通了，那就踏踏实实从基层做起，用智力和体力劳动换取相应的报酬，现在挣3000不要紧，要紧的是你能不能坚持学习，不断精进，报酬高低会随着你的能力上升，学历平平但毕业之后仍坚持学习的人几年之后都不会过得很差，大家的身边也不乏这样的榜样例子。\n当前中国的大学生硕士博士数量已不是几十年前可比，已不再稀缺，所以要修正希望。未来最稀缺的人才，可能是72变的人才，在一个瞬息万变，顺流逆流，整天面临新挑战的时候快速做出应对，博闻杂记，了解各种交叉学科，为人处事又如沐春风，能团结很多人和事情，这种领袖人才，组织能力，未来和人打交道的发展要远超和书本和工具打交道的。\n所有的成功都跟时代有关，顺势而为，因势而生，教育方式也要适应时代，时势造英雄。\n结语\n不管你是技能教育，通识教育，STEAM教育，受教育通常能跳脱工匠式经验的传承，而上升到一个积累式的经验改进上，这是教育给予人类的一种基础现实意义。\n通才就是蠢材，这个世界只有长板理论。战略是找长板，管理才是补短板。在初中高中阶段，\n\n第一，要服从内心，父母要善于发现孩子的天分，不要成为什么都齐备的人。\n第二，重视兴趣。\n第三，一专多能，补充通识知识。\n\n从中产到精英的升级，就是有我存在，对这个世界有什么贡献，或者说这个世界因为我多了一个什么事？从朋友圈影响力开始，到同行影响力比较好（前2%专业，职业选手在任何时候都发挥稳定，且多条腿走路多元化能力如演讲能力，有体系化的方法）\n总结\n\n我们当前处在一个非常好的时代，相信它，找一个相对好一点便于自己发展的环境，这个很重要，有时候我们再努力，也不如环境好\n教育的确能改变命运，但不要指望每一个人都能从最底层一下子到最顶层，认识清楚自己所在的位置和目标\n素质教育很重要，但是在一开始温饱阶段，必须掌握一个技能。须抛弃不切实际的文艺思想，无论在任何地方，都要讲理讲利益。\n人的见识、教育可以加速进步，正因为这个好处，大家终身接受教育\n一个人如果不看书，其价值观就由其身边的人决定，因为他没有其它的输入途径。只能模仿周边的人或者慢慢被环境所改变。书是向上的阶梯，是启迪智慧的良方，是唤醒心智的道法。\n\n孩子长大不陷入痛苦失落，做父母的就成功了，心之所向，便是光芒。\nAI 终将学会人类的所有本事，这是人类最大的挑战和机会，可能会颠覆社会结构和经济模式，同时也能解决气候变化，疾病等全球性问题，同时也能创造前所未有的发展机会。用上 AI，培养对它的能力直觉。人类创造性学习和问题解决的能力，将成为你核心的竞争力。另外，别纠结过去，专注于解决眼前的问题，遇到困难的时候，不要陷在『如果当初怎么样就好了』的情绪里，而是直接问自己『下一步该怎么去改善现状』，这能让人更能应对 AI 时代的不确定性。社会可能跟不上技术的脚步，AI 的发展速度可能远超社会的适应能力，如现有的法律教育体系，可能无法及时应对 AI 带来的伦理问题。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["育儿"]},{"title":"数字化时代回看运维","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%9B%9E%E7%9C%8B%E8%BF%90%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n从维护到流程革命\n一想起”运维“这个词，大家就想到的是运行维护，保证系统稳定运行。\n中国互联网发展创造了科技神话，伴随着用户和设备规模不断扩大，运维技术也不断发生变化\n\n人工运维\n脚本和工具的使用\n平台建设，向自动化，智能化方向发展\n\n运维和开发人员从”分离“状态转变成”融合&quot;状态，DevOps从一种实践方法论从09年出现，逐渐涉及到开发和运营生命周期的各个阶段。\n运维工作也从操作性的维护工作，发展为需要多方面知识，具备IT综合能力的研发运维工作，难度也翻了山头。从维护性工作到软件开发革命。\n\n从人工脚本到自研平台\n互联网早期，线上系统规模和服务器数量不大，可用脚本来进行部署维护工作，最初的业务运维，也就是做好服务器的部署和变更，及时处理掉一些告警，排除隐患\n2010年左右，互联网行业快速发展（SNS互动大爆发），用户规模增大，要维护的系统资源有了大规模的增长，靠人工脚本已经捉襟见肘，运维的“资源”和运维岗的人数同步上升，到后来，资源可大规模投入，但运维人员可不能照样同步增加\n人工运维存在风险，效率也无法支撑规模化发展，就进化到用平台去解决运维问题的主流方向，运维平台使得研发和运维互为结合，DevOps概念开始出现\n云计算的发展，成千上万的服务器，运维必须从全局角度思考如何用平台化的手段解决问题，追求大规模场景下的效率，用集中化的监控平台把云数据中心的告警等统一在一个地方管理\n运维从最初的职能（安全+质量），扩展到（安全+效率+质量+成本）多维度并看\n云计算的成本是商业模式里非常重要的一个因子，需考虑如何用最优的成本去提供优质服务，要极致，就要对系统有精细化的掌控，运维有了开发职能，对研发能力要求也提升了，难度非脚本时代可比拟的了\n云服务\n数据中心的运维是云服务正常运行的一大支柱，电力系统，空调系统，新能源储能跨界设计\n早期的基础设施层面，属地化运营，监控告警都是厂商提供的，但随着规模扩大，效率要求提升，就需要自研集中平台化的统一运维平台，全层级掌握非厂商层面可以做到（集中监控，园区，模组，配电单元，采集器等）\n过去的告警一般从设施出问题到捕获到告警大概是分钟级，自研的要求能提升到10秒下，及时定位排除故障\n云数据中心，还引入对基础设施的物理建模，用数字孪生技术实现对基础设施的配电和暖通的图形建模，可视化表征整个数据中心实时运行状况\n基于图模一体的技术实现告警风暴的收敛，包括告警的一些降噪处理，把影响到现场运营效率的无效告警在平台层面处理掉\n\n运维利用故障树，知识图谱等方式快速定位故障根因，节省故障排查时间\n用AI模型对设备进行精准预测，实现设备自动化巡检，保障运营安全等\n用机器学习算法和设备机理结合，寻找最优设备运营控制策略，节约运营能耗\n\nDevOps\n研发团队在引入敏捷后讲究快速变更和迭代，运维层面追求的还是稳定，可靠，安全，沟通协调琴瑟不和，总是争论。\nDevOps之父提出一个解决方案，聘请“思维过程与开发一样的运维人员”，建设系统以一步构建和部署项目。最终发展成一系列自动化整合实践，让所有团队回到最初的目的上来，更快更可靠的构建测试，更高效的交付软件。\n\n源代码管理\n持续集成\n软件测试自动化等流程\n\n背后避免浪费，自动化，全流程的思想给企业带来了一定的收益，降低了信息化转型过程中的门槛\nDevOps是敏捷发展的自然结果，在最后一公里破墙衔接起来了。\n谈业务成本的时候，在分析每一个不良的中间环节时，都需要去思考怎么尽可能去减少浪费\n微服务\n微服务是研发组织扩张的一剂良药，但也带来了更高的运维复杂度，提高了可观察、测试等难度，容器的出现给微服务提供了一个量身定做的底座\n\n研发组织扩张是应对复杂度上升的需要\n\n容器化提供支持后，DevOps自动化的能力，成本管理能力都得到了加强。DevOps需对全流程有更多的观察，更多的透明性。容器技术的资源伸缩，成本的控制，很好地提供了支持\n当大家有了共同的目标，开发团队也在转型，会去关注质量的左移和右移，尽早发现问题，避免问题向下游走，也会更多去关注运维层面的问题，根据发生的问题去做复盘和根源分析，缩短问题解决的时间，更高频的交付。\n软件运维的主要矛盾是不断增加的架构复杂度和快速变更间的矛盾。按理说，运维也会参与架构设计层面的事情，对架构进行抽象，提供更标准化的架构设计和建议，因为标准化的架构设计就意味着更好更轻松的运维能力，抽象层的建设也能更好实现运维层面的自动化工作。\nAIOps\n在深度上，在数据问题上，结合人工智能，就有了AIOps，基于算法的运维\n海量信息中有大量需要去挖掘和观察的信号，这正是AI擅长的范围。\n通过挖掘在可观测领域曝出来的这些数据，消灭噪音，做自动化告警的聚合，最终带来更深入，更准确，更快的运维，价值是非常明显的\n\n怎么快速在大量报警信息中得到因果关系，快速选择最正确的响应变更路径。进一步提升故障预警能力，建立提前防御的机制。\n\nAIOps也给运维工程师提出了更高的要求，不仅左移到架构，代码方向，更要提升一些更垂直的能力，如掌握大数据，机器学习这些知识。把运维经验结合运维数据，用机器学习的方法对这些数据进行归纳总结，模型评估，模型选择，参数调整等运维决策，成为一种多领域结合的专家\n数字化转型\n数字化转型意味着引入技术，流程和文化以实现共同目标，拆开来看\n\n资产的全生命周期管理，实时掌握资源使用情况，系统健康状态\n实现数据的可视化，自动化部署，自动化处置，自动化故障接管等\n逐步发展的趋势是：提高各岗位对数字精细化的敏感度\n\n高密度IT机架运行大数据和AI业务会消耗大量电力，要确保关键业务可靠运行，必须保证机架峰值功率运行在额定容量内。没有可信精细数据，可能倾向于保守运营，预留太多冗余容量。数据精细可信及有综合分析能力（应对数据异常）时，可在保证可靠情况下充分提升电力容量利用率，降低电力成本，也符合各企业碳中和的战略目标\n\n\n\n数字化是对现实场景的数字化表征，一定体现在对数据的实时掌握的基础上，要求数据的采集，监控是全方位的，并且是立体的。\n数字化转型意味着团队经常应对发生冲突的挑战\n\n建立学习型组织，每个角色都有全流程能力\n\n结语\n一路而来，是一路超载发展的路程。“超载”，就是在不同时期，根据业务需要被赋予不同的职责和责任，有此而来，想象的空间才会变大，可做的事情也越来越多，未来会有更多可以发展的方向。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["运维"]},{"title":"数据中台与技术漫谈","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%BC%AB%E8%B0%88.html","content":"\n数据中台\n数据中台并不产生数据，而是将组织在业务中产生的全域数据，汇进数据中台建立一套标准，形成数据资产后再进行服务化，业务化的过程。\n目标\n目标在于提升运营效率，决策效率，数据精准。对外支撑各种场景应用。\n\n在实施上把数据加工，存储，分析，建模等与数据相关的所有事情都可轻松的解决\n从管理上把一切的数据，口径，项目，工程等都管理起来\n面对客户，使客户一站式在此平台上获取到任何想要的数据，有足够的数据应用能力\n\n价值锚定\n梳理业务场景：搞清楚中台如何对业务产生价值，回归到业务本质，如何提升商业能力\n工作范畴\n工作内容涵盖：（1) 数据标准和指标建设 （2）数据采集（3）数据集成（4）数据治理（5）数据应用（6）数据资产管理（7）大数据仓库等技术应用\n\n能力建设\n复用性，资源整合，能力沉淀，数据深度整合沉淀为公共数据服务，这些能力在构建数据中台之初就是必须去直面的问题。\n\n\n能力沉淀：（1）数据接入能力（2）计算能力（3）存储能力（4）业务支撑能力（5）展现能力\n\n\n数据域的建设，分为\n\n内容建设\n工具建设：（1）ETL 过程（2）数据工具（3）调度工具（4）元数据工具（5）指标字典（6）库表字典（7）数据质量\n\n\n\n\n\n\n内容价值探索，工具体系化建设是数据平台的基石，内容透过工具提取出价值\n\n\n指标字典：解决公司指标管理，口径管理的问题\n\n\n每个工具产品解决特定领域的问题\n\n\n\n数据治理怎么强调都不为过\n和业务独立开的数据治理少有成功的，治理需要跟业务场景紧密结合\n\n\n大的数据标准要有（数据资产目录），通过数据资产目录将共有的维度，共性的业务模型提炼出来\n\n\n建立统一的企业级数据指标体系，解决数据来源多元化和标准不统一的问题。规范有序的完成数据采集，建模，分析，集成，应用和资产管理\n\n\nblock-beta\ncolumns 5\na[\"应用\"] block:application:4\n\t服务使用分析 服务提升建议 趋势分析 个性服务推荐 影响分析\nend\nv[\"可视化\"] block:visualization:4\n\t报表 大屏\nend\ns[\"服务管理\"] block:service:4\n\t服务创建 API 管理\nend\nm[\"资产管理\"] block:management:4\n\t资产门户 标签管理 价值评估 标准管理\nend\np[\"资产建设\"] block:property:4\n\t数据交换 \n\tdd[\"数据开发\"]\n\t算法建模\nend\nblock:develop:5\n\t可视化开发IDE 任务发布管理 任务调度管理 任务运维监控\nend\ni[\"基础设施层\"] block:infrastructure:4\n\tAWS S3 RDS ...\nend\ndd-->develop\ndata[\"各类数据源\"]:5\n算法建模管理\nblock-beta\ncolumns 7\na[\"分类\"] block:a1:6\n逻辑回归算法 SVM算法 ID3算法 C4.5算法 随机森林算法\nend\nb[\"回归\"] block:b1:6\n线性回归模型 朴素贝叶斯模型 Lasso回归模型 Ridge回归模型\nend\nc[\"聚类\"] block:c1:6\nK均值算法 高斯混合模型 DBSCAN算法 幂迭代聚类模型 隐含狄利克雷分布\nend\nd[\"关联降维\"] block:d1:6\nApriori d2[\"FP-growth\"] SVD奇异值分析 PCA主成分分析\nend\ne[\"时间序列\"] block:e1:6\nAR模型 MA模型 ARIMA模型 ARCH模型 GARCH模型\nend\nf[\"识别\"] block:f1:6\n产业舆情矩阵模型 产品价格弹性模型 产业聚集度模型 团伙分析模型 重点人员行为模型 商标相似度检测模型\nend\ng[\"预测\"] block:g1:6\n企业成长性模型 重要商品价格预测模型 钢铁企业融资模型 环境预警模型 销售订单预测模型\nend\nh[\"优化\"] block:h1:6\n资本热度模型 景气指数模型 克强指数模型 扶贫资金分配优化模型\nend\n团队划分\n\n业务专家团队+数据治理团队\n数据工程团队（平台）+数据分析团队\n智能算法团队\n\n\n数据中台和数据平台有一个潜台词的区别，就是最终会有数据服务化的目标，提高数据共享能力，治理的好避免数据的重复计算\n\n一般一上来就喊中台化的基本入不敷出，不是人员投入问题，就是实施方向以及定位到底是什么不明确，有的企业用演进的办法来做实施是个非常不错的选择。\n失败的数据中台常碰到如下问题\n\n「人的争斗」：有几方人/势力都想驱动这个平台，想法太多\n「能力问题」：做中台难度和普通产品比，有量级的差异，能力不足，真搬不动这块石头还砸自己的脚\n「头疼医头」：原本一条线到头的建设，实际上变成头痛医头的复杂网建设\n「高投低产」：资源问题，产研几十位，运营几十，数据人员几十，审核人员可能上百，算上流动，前后大概可能有好几百人。如果一开始给了老板很高的预期，希望花一年的时间几十人就能完成中台的建设，到头来不断降低预期，投入产出比不断透支，可想最终的结果\n\n数字化转型，忐忑艰苦\n指导思想\n被动响应转主动建设，修炼内功，降本增效\n\n工具建设提升自身效率（标准化，组件化，内部运营工具）\n沉淀优化内容建设\n围绕业务场景化做敏捷探索\n\n总结与例说\n综合言之：支持业务商业模式不停快速尝试下的数据场景化需求，还要进行自身内容与工具化建设，拆解历史包袱 !\n系统化$\\longrightarrow$业务在线化$\\longrightarrow$业务信息化$\\longrightarrow$数据整合化$\\longrightarrow$业务智能化；也有企业信息化能一部到位，毕竟这样的很少，更多是原来资源的整合升级\n举例：\n\n\n定制化的数据产品改成了可配置化，持续做减法，表从近万张缩减到几千张，成千的指标一样做缩减\n\n\n通过该数据做数据作战地图–数据产品的方式来做数据模型的阶段性布局和设计（定优先策略）\n\n\n过去的债务\n在过去企业构建IT基础设施的过程中，逐渐形成了各种烟囱式的数据设施，也带来了数据孤岛问题，还有一点可怕的事是：ETL任务和中间过程大量膨胀，不仅是存储问题，更大的挑战是无数的ETL任务其实不断地做重复性的工作，不断消耗整个数据集群的资源，还存在数据口径不一致的问题。数据来源又可能有分歧，如这个部门说自己是从PowerBI中看到的，另一个部门说是从数仓里看到的，这就不能帮助企业做出高效的决策。\n过去上了ERP到电子化时，就有一个企业流程再造的说法，就是说你上系统要先梳理自己的业务流程，梳理不好系统上不去，也没法提升管理能力。现在和那个阶段有一点味道相像，一样要先将企业的指标，数字化运营的思路理清楚，如果讲不清业务目标，过程目标，结果目标，那就不知道拿什么追踪，拿什么来做数字化的管理？\n各部门各组织都非常有欲望生产自己的数据指标，会形成几百倍的放大。不同部门指标不统一，指标过时，都属于管理问题。\n古早技术概念介绍\n数仓的星型和雪花模型（多表组合模型）\n区别就是对维度表的拆分，雪花模型维度表设计更加规范，一般符合第三范式；而星型一般采用降维操作，用冗余避免模型过于复杂，提高易用性和分析效率。\n在数据仓库中多用星型模型，构建宽表，维度整合，减少多表关联，方便性能高。\n在数据采集中，要注意完整性校验，针对缺失字段的数据建议直接丢掉，也可以用同列前/后一个数据来填补。还要注意合法性校验，异常值全部替换为一个特殊值（特殊值这要根据具体的业务场景而定）\n宽表模型和多表组合模型\n\n\n\n宽表型\n组合模型\n\n\n\n\nElasticsearch、Solr应用Scatter-Gather计算模型\nGreenPlum\n\n\nClickHouse\nPresto\n\n\nDruid\nImpala\n\n\n\n宽表模型能提供比多表模型更好的查询性能，不足的是支持的 SQL 操作类型比较有限，如对 Join 等复杂操作支持较弱或不支持。\n多表组合模型一般均基于 MPP 架构，相较其它类型的 ROLAP 和 MOLAP，通常不具有性能优势，实时性较一般。但其支持的数据量大，支持 SQL 类型多样，这样通用系统往往比专用系统更难实现和进行优化。\n基于明细数据的多维模型、雪花模型能支持业务灵活用数问题，但性能问题令人头疼，ROLAP 开发简单但效率完全依靠数据库本身，当数据量到一定程度后很难保证性能，所以又出现了大量为解决性能而开发的报表物理表（宽表），MOLAP 能解决效率方面很多问题，但相对于 ROLAP 会带来管理运维成本的增加。\n基数估计\nCardinality Estimation一直是大数据领域的重要问题之一：一批数据中，不重复的元素有多少个。以 UV 为例，对访问量巨大的系统来说，统计出 10 亿和 10 亿零 10w 其实没太多的区别，因此，在这种业务场景下，为了节省成本，可只计算出一个大概的值，没必要算出精准的值。\n大家常规用字典的数据结构，遍历字典后，得到的整体计数就是这批数据的基数了。这种算法虽然精准度很高，但使用的空间复杂度却很高，故提出一些近似方法，估算数据集合的基数。如 HyperLogLog，MinCount，ThetaSketch\nOLTP vs OLAP\n\n\n与 OLAP 不同，OLTP 系统强调数据库内存效率，强调内存各种指标的命中率，强调并发操作，强调事务性\n\n\nOLAP 系统则强调数据分析，强调磁盘 I/O，强调分区。它是一种让用户可以用不同视角方便快捷分析数据的计算方法，主流 OLAP 可分为三类\n\n\nMOLAP：多维 OLAP，Multi-dimensional：典型代表是：Druid，Kylin，Doris，它们一般会根据用户定义的数据维度，度量（也可以叫做指标）在数据写入时生成预聚合数据；Query 查的是预聚合数据而不是原始明细数据，不支持明确数据的查询，仅适合这种查询场景相对固定且对查询性能要求非常高的场景。其优缺点都来自于其数据预处理环节，预聚合处理需预先定义维度，会限制后期数据查询的灵活性，如果查询工作涉及新的指标，需重新增加预处理流程。\n\n\nROLAP：关系型 OLAP，Relational。典型代表是：Presto，Impala，GreenPlum，Clickhouse，ES，Hive，SparkSQL，FlinkSQL。数据写入时，ROLAP 并未应用像 MOLAP 那样的预聚合技术，ROLAP 收到 Query 请求时，会生成执行计划，扫描数据，执行关系型算子，在原始数据上做过滤，聚合，关联，分组，排序，整个过程都是即时计算，拼的都是资源和算力的大小。ROLAP 不需要进行预处理，因此查询灵活，可扩展性好，这类引擎使用 MPP 架构（与 Hadoop 相似的大型并行处理架构，可通过扩大并发来增加计算资源），可高效处理大量数据。有人说 Spark SQL 和 Flink SQL 属于 DAG 模型，其实 DAG 并不算一种单独的模型，它只是生成执行计划的一种方式。\n\nHive执行 ad-hoc 查询慢的痛点，推动了 MPP 内存迭代和 DAG 计算模型的发展。\nMPP减少 IO资源消耗，充分利用 CPU 资源，但事情往往是两面的。中间结果不落盘，正常情况是利好，异常情况如出现节点宕机，需要重新计算中间结果，拖慢任务完成时间。另扩展性没有 MR 架构好，随着 MPP 系统节点增多到一定规模，源于木桶效应，性能无法线性提升，且规模越大，出现宕机、坏盘等异常情况就会愈频繁，会导致 SQL 重试概率提升。所以 MPP比较适合执行时间不会太久的业务场景，如数小时，因为时间月越久，故障概率越大。\n\n\n\nHOLAP：混合 OLAP，Hybrid。将聚合信息存储在 OLAP 服务器上，详细记录保留在关系表中，因此不会保留重复副本，平衡了磁盘空间需求。劣势正是同时支持 MOLAP 和 ROLAP，本身体系结构非常复杂。\n\n或者换种说法其允许模型升级者决定哪些数据存储在 MOLAP 中，哪些数据存储在 ROLAP 中，把数据划分成传统关系型存储（细节数据）和专有存储（聚合数据）\n\n\n\n\n\nOLAP 脑图\nmindmap\n\troot((OLAP))\n\t\tROLAP)ROLAP(\n\t\t\tMPPDB\n\t\t\t\tDoris/StarRocks\n\t\t\t\tClickHouse\n\t\t\t\tGreenPlum\n\t\t\tSQL-On-HadoopNaN\n\t\t\t\tMPP架构))MPP架构((\n\t\t\t\t\tPresto\n\t\t\t\t\tImpala\n\t\t\t\t\tDrill\n\t\t\t\t\tHAWQ\n\t\t\t\t通用型))通用型((\n\t\t\t\t\tHive\n\t\t\t\t\tSparkSQL\n\t\tMOLAP\n\t\t\tKylin\n\t\t\tDruid\n\t\tHOLAP\n\t\t\tMicrosoft SQL Server Analysis Services\n并发差异\n在 OLAP 场景，一般认为 QPS 达到1000+就算高并发，而不是 10w 以上才算，毕竟数据分析场景，数据海量，计算复杂，达到 1000 已经非常不易。\n如 Clickhouse 在 TB 级别，单集群达到 100 已经很困难，更适合企业内部 BI 报表使用，而不是广告主平台报表。Clickhouse 的执行模型决定了它会尽全力来执行一个 query，而不是同时执行很多 query\nHadoop的调度演进\n在 Hadoop1 中，MapReduce计算框架既负责集群资源调度，还负责 MapReduce 程序运行，资源调度和计算的高度绑定耦合。\n到了 Hadoop2 改成了Yarn+MapReduce 的架构，这样就保证 Hadoop 集群既能跑 MapReduce 计算任务，还能跑任何支持 Yarn 资源调度的计算任务，如 Spark，Storm 等。\n大数据架构\nLambda 架构\n\n同一套指标需开发两套代码进行在线和离线分析，维护复杂。\n数据应用查询指标可能需同时查询离线数据和在线数据，开发复杂。\n两套引擎（流+批），运维复杂\n数据更新要 overwrite 整张表或分区，成本高\n\n随着在线分析业务越越多，Lambda 架构的弊端越发明显，增加一个指标要在线、离线分别开发，离线指标还可能和在线指标对不齐，部署复杂，组件繁多。真是一个痛苦的时代。\nKappa 架构\n使用同套引擎同时处理在线和离线数据，数据存储在消息队列上。也有其局限：\n\n消息队列的容量特性使得历史数据可能无法回溯；数据可能乱序，可能对部分时序要求严格的应用造成数据错误。\n流计算引擎批处理能力较弱，处理大数据量性能较弱。\n从消息队列取数没有 SQL 自然，需要开发适配，开发复杂。\n\n湖仓一体化\n实时数仓\n三大当红国际派\n基于 Lambda 和 Kappa 架构的缺陷，凸显了在大数据领域，实时数仓的建设和维护非常重要。Uber 孵化的Hudi，Databricks 孵化的 Delta lake，Netflix 孵化的 Iceberg 都在尝试解决此问题。三者均为 Data Lake 的数据存储中间层。\n\n\n\nHudi为了解决 uber 的增量 upserts问题；\n\n\nIceberg 诞生于Netflix, 旨在解决文件列表等云存储规模问题（当时是 S3 上存储大型 Hive 分区数据集时出现的性能，可扩展性和可管理性挑战），定位高性能分析与可靠的数据管理；\n\n\nDelta 定位流批一体的数据处理\n\n\n\n三种场景的不同造成三者设计上的差别。Delta 在数据 Merge 方面性能不及 hudi，查询性能不如 Iceberg，但与 spark 整合好，工作场景多。从字节和亚马逊的实践上看，当前上下游生态的开放性和成熟度上，对全局索引的支持，对某些存储逻辑的定制化开发接口，Hudi 暂胜一筹。如 hudi 有强大的数据摄取实用程序deltaStreamer允许你从各种来源增来摄取上游更改。\n\n三者都支持数据可变更，并发控制也都支持的不错。其中 Hudi 相比较另两个还支持 Merge on Read，能更好应对流式场景，减少写放大的发生。\n在元数据变更上，Iceberg 很有优势，其设计能进行Full Schema Evolution，可任意地改变列的位置，类型，还提供 Partition Evolution，能帮助更好地管理数据。另两个引擎，Delta 只能与 Spark 结合，利用了 SparkSQL 的 Schema，Hudi 同样直接使用 SparkSQL 或 FlinkSQL 的 Schema，在 Schema Evolution 上比较弱，只支持在最后新增列。\n在多引擎支持方面，Iceberg 原生设计就为了支持多引擎，分层设计很好，想增加一个新的引擎时就很简单。Delta 和 Spark 绑定骄较深，移植困难。Hudi 支持多引擎，只是支持别的引擎的话，增加代码会比较多，需从底层往上垒代码\n对后端存储的支持，Iceberg 对后端存储之要求简单的三点，不管是分布式存储还是对象存储大多数都支持。Delta 相比 Icegerg，它的 Constant Listing 是比较严格的要求，有些对象存储可能满足不了。Hudi 并未对存储有什么具体要求，只要你实现一个 Hadoop FileSystem API，就可以跑 Hudi[6]\n\n对于数据湖，大家可能进行数据探索和开发，如果你的存储格式在并发读/并发写（包括元数据变更）上不友好，在任务编排上就会出现很大的局限性。另外最好对多种计算引擎都亲和支持，以方便拥抱技术调整，还有一点比较重要的是部署和存储选择灵活，HDFS，云托管，对象存储也支持。\n多记一嘴 Hudi\nHudi 和 Hive 间的关系是相互依赖的，Hudi 作为数据管理工具，可将数据以 Hudi 表的形式存储到 HDFS中，而 Hive 可通过 Hive 表的方式对 Hudi 表进行查询和分析。可理解为 Hudi 赋能了 Hive 表增量更新和删除的能力，且相较于几种原始表存储格式有更高效的索引实现。它本质上是在大数据存储上的一个数据集，使得用户能在 Hadoop 兼容的存储上存储大量数据（其实也可以不依赖 hadoop。可以用操作系统的文件系统存储，但为了分析性能和数据可靠性，一般都搭配 HDFS），对上可暴露成一个普通的 Hive 表或 Spark 表，通过 API 或命令行可以获取到增量修改的信息，且保管了修改历史，可做时间旅行或回退。\n\nHudi 以两种不同的存储格式：读优化的列存格式 ROFormat，缺省值是 Parquet；写优化的行存格式，缺省值是 Avro\n\nDoris\nDoris是一个 MPP（大规模并行处理框架-Massively Parallel Processing） 架构的分析型数据库，孵化于百度的 Palo，是根据 Google Mesa 论文和 Impala 项目改写的一个大数据分析引擎「架构整合 Google Mesa + Apache Impala + ORC列式存储三种技术，通过 Mesa 实现预聚合，Impala 实现 MPP连接处理，ORC 列存储更好服务 OLAP 数据分析」，兼容标准 SQL 且完全兼容 MySQL 协议，运维部署难度不高（只有 FE：负责管理元数据、解析 SQL 生成和调度查询计划+BE：存储数据及执行 FE 生成的查询计划 两种组件）。简单易用，多副本的机制减少数据网络拷贝，将数据进行分区分桶后分发散列到各个节点实现分布式计算，亚秒级获得查询结果，有效支持实时数据分析。\n支持批量数据和流式数据 load ，支持数据更新，支持聚合表和物化视图，特点是采用了预聚合技术，向量化执行引擎（ShareNothing 架构，且在数据写入时建立多级索引，将任务并行分散到多个服务器和节点上，结合单节点的多核并行处理能力，在每个节点计算完成后，将各部分结果汇总在一起得到最终结果），再加上列式存储，是一个高效的查询引擎，如果你数据量比较小，可在 Doris 里完成一站式分析。\n但当数据量变大时，ETL 和分析都在 Doris 里进行时，会相互影响性能，这时势必要将 ETL 任务分摊出去，外挂湖。\nKudu\nKudu 需要单独部署集群，Hudi 则不需要，还有个关键区别是 Kudu 还试图充当 OLTP 的工作负载和数据存储，且 Kudu 虽然支持更新，但不支持增量拉取，在增量自动处理方面 Hudi要方便的多。\nKudu 于分布式文件系统抽象和 HDFS 完全不同，它自己的一组存储服务器通过 RAFT 相互通信，Hudi 则与 Hadoop 兼容的文件系统(HDFS,S3,Ceph)可一起使用。\n不同于Hudi 或 Delta Lake 是作为数据湖的存储方案，Kudu 设计初衷是作为 Hive 和 HBase 的折中，同时具有随机读写和批量分析的特性。但相较于前两者，Kudu 不支持云存储，版本回滚和增量处理。\n总结\n新技术的出现使得数仓支持 ACID、Update/Delete、数据 Time Travel、Schema Evolution 等特性，使得数仓的时效性从小时级提升到分钟级，支持部分更新，兼具流计算的实时性和批计算的吞吐性，支持近实时场景。\n但也要认识到数据湖模式无法支撑更高的秒级实时性，也无法直接对外提供数据服务，需要搭建其他的数据服务组件。\n湖仓对比\n\n\n\n对比维度\n数据湖\n数据仓库\n\n\n\n\n方法论\n事后建模（schema-on-read）\n事前建模（schema-on-write）\n\n\n存储类型\n结构化/半结构化/非结构化（文件）\n结构化/半结构化（表）\n\n\n计算引擎\n向所有引擎开放，各引擎有限优化\n向特定引擎开放，易获得高度优化\n\n\n成本\n易启动，难运维管理\n难启动，易运维管理\n\n\n数据治理\n质量低，难管理使用\n质量高，易管理使用\n\n\n\n随着数据量的增长，运维管理会越来越困难，所以有很多数据湖最终有可能变成数据沼泽（比如，大家也不知道这个数据属于谁，谁被谁来用，能不能删掉，该怎么治理），这是数据湖面临的一个问题。\n大多数数据仓库建立之初要有一个有关整体数据建模的顶层设计，所以数据仓库的启动成本很高。但这种很好的顶层设计，会使数据仓库日后扩展时的运维和管理成本变得更低，长线成本优势变得非常明显。（但数仓在面对AI这种非结构化数据存在很大挑战，它几乎不支持音视图类型的数据，而数据湖可存储所有类型，更灵活更有优势）\n融合流派（Data Lakehouse）\n数据复杂性与管理挑战\n51%的受访者报告他们有 20 到 100 个或更多的数据源，显示了数据整合和管理的复杂性。\n湖仓架构通过减少数据移动和数据副本，提高了查询速度并降低了成本，大型企业预计能节省成本 75%以上，56%的受访者也觉得他们能节省 50%以上的分析成本。\n体系融合\n这两个体系可以说是硬币的两面，很多厂商开始考虑怎么在数据湖上应用更多数据仓库技术，反过来数据仓库厂商也希望用数据湖技术使自己更开放，这两个技术在相互学习和融合，也就造出一个新名词—湖仓一体。\n\n一种将数据湖的灵活性和数据仓库的结构化查询能力相结合的架构，支持各种数据类型的高效存储和分析\n\n\n有两个流派，双方都在发展中：\n\n「仓外挂湖」左边一个数据仓库，右边一个数据湖，中间以高速网络相连形成联动，这种流派的代表是AWS的Redshift。\n另一个流派是数据湖向数据仓库演进「湖上建仓」，整体架构师在数据湖上搭建数据仓库，阿里云的Maxcompute，Databricks是代表\n\n总结 vs 预测\n大数据平台的发展在很长一段时间几乎都是以分析（BI）为轴，主流接口是SQL，侧重结构化的数据和二维关系表达的运算模式，以历史数据为主，在之上做统计和分析。\n非结构化的数据处理过去一直是瓶颈，但10年前的深度学习技术突破了这一瓶颈，在过去5年中，算法类负载在数据中心里从一个很低的比例增长到10~30%，正式成为数据平台的一等公民。\n说数据分析和BI侧重于历史数据总结，算法和AI具备越来越好的面向未来做预测的能力，该说法有合理性。\nOLAP 查询引擎\n古早实时数据探索系统的问题\n第一代的实时数据探索通常是 Spark+Redis+Hbase 的方案，存在下述问题\n\n流量高峰期处理延迟\n纬度交叉分析不灵活\n消耗资源大，碰到系统故障时，重算慢\n\n在大内存情况下很容易崩溃，哪天一个硬件故障，一天的数据可能要重算，算一天需要十几个小时。\n新质生产力对比\n在传统的数据仓库架构中，ETL 是在数据仓库之外，OLAP 在数据仓库之内的，Hadoop 体系引入数据仓库领域后，大大提升了数据 ETL 处理的能力，集群的扩展能力，数据存储的稳定性，但是牺牲了数据的查询能力。\n\n\nKylin，Presto，Impala，Druid 都是为了解决 OLAP 查询而设计的，但这些基于 HDFS 设计的 OLAP 引擎只是加速了查询速度，未能达到令人惊艳的速度，ClickHouse 和 Doris 在速度方面更胜一筹。\n\n\nPresto，Impala，Greenplum 在支持的 SQL 计算上更为通用，更适合 Ad Hoc 场景，然而这些通用系统往往比专用系统更难做性能优化，所以不太适合做 $QPS &gt; 1000$ &amp; $Latency &lt; 500ms$的在线服务，更适合做公司内部的查询服务和加速 Hive 查询的服务。\n\n\nTiDB 是一套 OLTP+OLAP 的数据库，但作为非独立 OLAP，分析处理能力并不理想，性能在不同场景下表现参差不齐。\n\n\n当时间回到 2017 年，市场上找开源 OLAP工具就像在非洲大草原上找树一样，寥寥无几，可能只有 Druid 或 Kylin，Kylin的最佳存储引擎为 HBase，预计算查询效率出色，但预计算带来的维度爆炸会给存储带来一定压力（有 N 个维度，就会有 2N 种组合，所以最好控制好维度的数量）。Druid 也有缺点，对 Join 支持弱，组件众多需大量安装维护工作，侵入 Hadoop 的 Jar 依赖，精确去重较慢。\n细说说一众引擎\nPresto（适合秒级查询），Impala，Druid，Kylin（专注预计算，最初由 eBay 开发并开源贡献)，Doris 和 Clickhouse（实时数据更新和高吞吐写入，但多表Join查询支持性能不好，并发较低），GreenPlum有较好的生态，但作为老将应对超大规模数据已显颓势。\nPresto\nPresto 是 MPP+SQL on Hadoo，它的设计和编写完全是为了解决像 Meta 这样规模的商业数据仓库的交互式分析和处理速度问题，它不是一个数据库，是一个运行在多台服务器上的分布式系统，命令行把 CLI 提交给 Coordinator 解析，分发处理队列到 Worker，将多个数据源进行合并，跨越整个组织进行分析，主要用来处理响应时间小于 1 秒到几分钟的场景。并没有使用 MapReduce，而是通过一个定制的查询和执行引擎来完成，所有的查询处理在内存中，所以性能较 Hive 快很多，但多张大表关联操作时易引起内存溢出错误。\n实际体验结果：查询延迟一般，因为它是从明细层开始查询，没有任何预聚合\nImpala\nImpala 是 Cloudera 受到 Google Dremel 启发主导开发的 Hive 的升级品，不同于 Hive 的原始 MapDeduce 过程，提供访问 Hadoop 文件系统中数据的最快方法，但不能读取自定义二进制文件，仅限于文本文件。\nImpala使用 Hive 的元数据，完全在内存中进行计算，是 CDH 平台当时首选的PB 级大数据实时查询分析引擎。通常搭配存储引擎 Kudu 一起提供服务，最大优势是点查比较快，且支持数据的 update 和 Delete。\nClickHouse\nClickHouse由俄罗斯yandex公司开发。专为在线数据分析而设计。Yandex是俄罗斯搜索引擎公司，日处理记录数”十亿级”。其从 OLAP 场景需求出发，定制一套全新高效列式存储引擎，实现了数据有序存储、主键索引、稀疏索引、数据 Sharding、数据 Partitioning、TTL、主备复制等丰富功能，用C++实现，具备向量化执行，剪枝等优化能力，具备强劲的查询性能。不依赖 Hadoop 体系（HDFS+YARN），比较擅长的地方是对大数据量单表进行聚合查询，比较适合内部 BI 报表型应用，可提供 ms 级别的响应速度。\n\n今日头条内部用 Clickhouse 做用户行为分析，内部一共几千个ClickHouse节点，单集群最大 1200 节点，总数据量几十 PB，日增原始数据 300TB 左右\n腾讯也用ClickHouse做游戏数据分析，并建立一整套监控运维体系\n携程内部从 18 年 7 月开始试用，现24 年每天数据增量十多亿，近百万次查询请求\n快手内部也在使用，存储总量大约 10PB，每天新增 200TB，90%查询小于3秒\n\nClickHouse 作为目前所有开源MPP计算框架中计算速度最快的，它在做多列的表，同时行数很多的表的查询时，性能是很让人兴奋的，但是在做多表的join时，它的性能是不如单宽表查询的。性能测试结果表明ClickHouse在单表查询方面表现出很大的性能优势，但是在多表查询中性能却比较差，不如Presto、Impala、HAWQ的效果好。\n单表查询性能对比 Presto，Impala包括 Doris，确实要高很多。但 Clickhouse 没有高速低延迟的更新和删除方法，行级别的更新删除方法一般都是异步进行。\nGreenplum\nGreenPlum在基于PostgreSQL9.4开发，采用 MPP架构的关系型分布式数据库。其SQL支持，特性，配置选项和最终用户功能在大部分情况下和PostgreSQL非常相似。相比较，GreePlum可以使用追加优化（append-optimized）的存储格式来批量转载和读取数据，且能提供HEAP表上的性能优势。追加优化的存储为数据保护，压缩和行/列方向提提供了校验和。行式和列式追加优化的表都可以被压缩。 Greenplum的interconnect（网络层）允许在不同的PostgreSQL实例之间通讯，让系统表现为一个逻辑数据库。也包括为针对商业智能（BI）负载优化PostgreSQL而设计的特性。\n提取下GreePlum和 PG 的主要区别：\n\n在基于Postgres查询规划器的常规查询规划器之外，可以利用GPORCA进行查询规划\n可以使用追加优化的存储\n可选用列式存储，只能和追加优化表一起使用。在所有使用列式存储的追加优化表上都提供了压缩\n\n优势\n有完善的生态系统，可以与很多企业级产品集成，譬如SAS，Cognos，Informatic，Tableau等；也可以很多种开源软件集成，譬如Pentaho,Talend 等。从应用编程接口上讲，它支持ODBC和JDBC。完善的标准支持使得系统开发、维护和管理都大为方便。支持分布式事务，支持ACID。保证数据的强一致性。\n作为关系型数据库产品，它的特点主要就是查询速度快，数据装载速度快，批量DML处理快。而且性能可以随着硬件的添加，呈线性增加，拥有非常良好的可扩展性。因此，它主要适用于面向分析的应用。比如构建企业级ODS/EDW，或者数据集市等\n劣势\nGreenplum无法对实时数据进行增量聚合计算，难支持实时数据分析，数据扩容时需进行数据重分布，需人工操作且工作量大，影响线上服务。前端采用 cognos query studio 作为自由拖拽，实现灵活查询和效率之间的一个相互平衡和制约，查询效率不会太高，业务更关心的是能出数而不是效率本身。\n但在这个年代选择多了，Greenplum 已经不流行了，但在大数据体系成熟之前，在 10 年之前，还是有很多公司引入其做基础数据仓库，不乏银行金融机构，淘宝，支付宝等。\nDruid\nDruid由 MetaMarkets（一家广告数据分析平台公司） 开发并于 2015 年开源，创建的最初意图是为了解决查询延迟问题，毕竟使用 Hadoop 来实现交互式实时查询分析很难，Druid 在这方面提供了以交互式访问数据的能力，并权衡了查询的灵活性而采取了特殊的存储格式。它的核心架构吸收结合了数仓，时序数据库及检索系统的优势。\n其功能介于 PowerDrill 和 Dremel 之间，几乎实现了 Dremel 的全部功能，且从 PowerDrill 吸收了一些有趣的数据格式，在二者基础上增加了一些新特性，如为局部嵌套数据结构提供列式存储格式，实时摄取[收录事件]和查询（事件创建后毫秒/秒内查到），高容错的分布式体系架构等，每天能处理数十亿事件和 TB 级数据。其应用最广的是广告分析（点击流分析），广告监控及网络监控等，最适合应用于面向事件类型的数据，数据插入频率较高，但较少更新数据。\n多数查询场景为聚合查询和 groupby分组查询，数据具有时间属性（Druid 对时间做了优化设计），需要对高基维度数据列（URL，用户 ID等）进行快速计数和排序，需要从 Kafka，HDFS，对象存储中加载数据。无论何种查询，历史节点都会先将相关 Segment 数据文件从磁盘加载到内存，然后再提供查询服务，历史节点的查询效率受内存空间影响很大，内存越大，需从磁盘加载数据的次数就越少，查询速度就越快。\n目前 Druid 在实际应用中遇到的最大问题是缺少支持精确的基数计算的数据结构。Druid 的架构组件比较复杂（协调器，历史节点，实时节点），部署和运维成本较高。对 SQL 的支持不够全面，某些复杂查询可能要自定义实现。\n\nDruid 有三个外部依赖：Mysql 存储各种 metadata，存储 Segment 的载体（本地磁盘，NFS，HDFS，S3 均可），Zookeeper 管理当前 cluster 的状态，如哪些 Segment 由Real-time node 移到了Historical nodes。\n\n不适合的场景\n如果你需要对现有数据进行低延迟的更新操作，就不太合适用 Druid 了，它支持流式插入（流数据摄入后会以 Index 形式保存在内存中，定期将 Index 序列化成 Segment 文件持久化到可靠存储中-如 HDFS），但不支持流式更新（更新通过后台批处理作业完成）。批数据摄入则会直接生成 Segment 存储，供服务加载使用。\n其查询并发有限，不适合 OLTP 查询，不支持 join 使得只适合处理星型模型的数据，实时数据要能容忍丢失数据。\nOLAP 的实现模式\n作为一个 OLAP 数据库，需要支持类似上卷，切块，切片，下钻等操作，但不适合明细查询（根据某主键 id 定位唯一数据的任务），常见的 OLAP 数据库实现方式有以下几种：\n\n数据检索引擎，如 ES。可存储结构化/非结构化数据，同时具备明细查询和聚合查询能力，但其索引类型并不是针对聚合分析设计的，所以聚合查询方面开销较大，其次，ES 不但要保存所有原始数据，还需要生成较多索引，所以存储空间开销会更大，数据写入效率较 Druid 会差一些。相比较，Druid 只能处理结构化数据（预定义 Schema），由于进行预聚合，所以 Druid 抛弃了原始数据，导致其缺少原始明细查询能力，若关闭预聚合，又会丧失 Druid 的优势。\n预计算+KV 存储实现，如 Kylin。缺点是需在预处理中处理预设的聚合逻辑，故损失了查询灵活性，且面临数据过于膨胀的情况。\nSQL on Hadoop 引擎：如 Presto，SparkSQL\n\n能力对比\n\n\n\n\nKylin\nES\nSparkSQL\nDruid\nPresto\nImpala\n\n\n\n\n离线查询\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\n\n\n实时查询\nN\nY\nN\nY\nN\nN\n\n\n丰富的 SQL\nY\nN\nY\nY\nY\nY\n\n\n百亿数据集\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\n\n\n聚合亚秒级响应\nY\nN\nN\nY\nN\nN\n\n\n精准去重\nY\nN\nY\nN\nY\nY\n\n\n表关联\nY（弱）\nN\nY\nN\nY\nY\n\n\n\n\n相较于 Kylin，Druid 没有模型管理和 cube 管理能力，Kylin 无法提供实时查询\n相较 ES，Druid 优势在于聚合计算，ES 优势在于查询明细\n\n性能特性比较\n简单查询\n在简单查询场景（命中索引或物化视图-预聚合数据），这样的查询通常出现在「在线数据服务」的企业应用，并发查询量大，对响应时间要求一般是 ms 级别，最合适的是 ES，doris，druid，kylin 这些\n\n\ndruid、kylin的 QPS &lt;1000\nClickhouse的 QPS &lt; 100\nElasticSearch QPS &gt; 1000\n在亚秒级别响应的只有 es，druid，kylin，clickhouse。Hive 在落在分钟小时级，其它在秒级。\n\n\nquadrantChart\n\ttitle 简单查询吞吐能力\n\tx-axis \"毫秒\" --> \"分钟小时\"\n\ty-axis \"几十\" --> \"几千\"\n\tquadrant-1 \"高QPS高时延\"\n\tquadrant-2 \"高QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-3 \"低QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-4 \"低QPS高时延\"\n  Druid:[0.3,0.6]\n  Kylin:[0.3,0.55]\n  ElasticSearch:[0.2,0.85]\n  Clickhouse:[0.32,0.2]\n  Impala+kudu:[0.42,0.57]\n  Presto:[0.42,0.52]\n  FlinkSQL:[0.45,0.32]\n  SparkSQL:[0.45,0.21]\n  Hive:[0.75,0.3]\n复杂查询\n复杂查询场景，指复杂聚合查询，大批量数据 scan，在 ad-hoc 场景中，往往用户不能预先知道要查什么，更多是探索式的。\nquadrantChart\n\ttitle 复杂查询吞吐能力\n\tx-axis \"毫秒\" --> \"分钟小时\"\n\ty-axis \"几十\" --> \"几千\"\n\tquadrant-1 \"高QPS高时延\"\n\tquadrant-2 \"高QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-3 \"低QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-4 \"低QPS高时延\"\n  Druid:[0.65,0.30]\n  Kylin:[0.65,0.25]\n  ElasticSearch:[0.65,0.35]\n  Clickhouse:[0.48,0.2]\n  Impala+kudu:[0.42,0.57]\n  Presto:[0.42,0.52]\n  FlinkSQL:[0.75,0.19]\n  SparkSQL:[0.75,0.14]\n  Hive:[0.9,0.21]\nES 出列单看\nES，Druid，Kylin 都是单轮的 MapReduce，中间结果结果存储在内存中，通过网络直接交换，而不是像典型的 多轮MR 每次 shuffle 要先落盘。\n用 ES 做 OLAP 引擎，有几项优势：\n\n查询模式简单的场景高 QPS，低延迟，过滤条件多。ES 底层依赖 Lucene文件格式，可把 Lucene 理解为一种行列混存的模式，在查询时通过 FST，跳表加快数据查询。\n\n但单轮的 MR模式（单节点汇聚）若 Reduce 数据量较大（数据量较大或进行扫描聚合类查询时），由于 ES 是单节点执行，可能会非常慢。\n\n\n集群自动化管理能力非常强（shard allocation，recovery），集群，索引管理和查看 API 非常丰富。\n\n多记一嘴 Druid\n很多数据仓库产品都是以『批处理』为基础，这导致记录指标时的时间与进行分析时的时间间出现延迟。\n\n\n指标是衡量事物发展程度的单位和方法，通常需要经过加和、平均等聚合统计才能得到。如 PV，UV，页面停留时长，用户获取成本\n\n\n维度是事务现象的某种特征，如性别、地区，时间，版本，操作系统都是维度。Druid 只会预计算最细粒度的维度和时间结果，减少维度爆炸问题，是一种比较平衡的方式。\n\n\nDruid 之所以能在 OLAP 家族中占一席之地，除了依赖 MPP 架构外，还运用了四点重要的技术\n\n预聚合：减少数据存储于避免查询时不必要的计算\n列式存储\n字典编码：有效提升数据压缩率\n位图索引：让很多查询转化成计算机层面的位计算，提升效率\n\n存储层是 Druid 的核心组件，用于存储和管理数据，其用列式存储格式来优化查询性能和压缩数据大小，存储层由多个数据分片组成，每个分片都包含了特定时间范围内的数据，数据分片可水平扩展和复制，以实现高可用性和高吞吐量。\n使用 Druid 过程中，维度不要太多，维度数据导入将十分耗时。磁盘适用固态盘，这样你的查询速度才稳定的快。\n时序数据库特性\nDruid 是针对时间序列数据提供的低延时数据写入及快速交互式查询的分布式 OLAP 数据库。时间列是 Druid 数据模型的核心组成部分，它允许数据按时间进行排序，分割和分片存储，以支持高效的数据查询，且可将数据按固定时间间隔（小时，天，周）划分为不同的桶，每个桶存储一个时间段内的数据。其与典型的InfluxDB、OpenTSDB部分特性类似，这些时序数据库具备一些共同特点\n\n一是通过内存增量所有让数据写入即可查\n二是下采样或 RDD操作减少数据量，Druid 在数据写入时就会对数据预聚合，进而减少原始数据量。\n三是可能会支持 SchemaLess，InfluxDB中，用户可任意加 tag，InfluxDB 可对新增 tag 进行聚合查询，但 Druid 在这点上跟 InfluxDB 略有差异，Druid 需预定义 Schema，Schema 数据打包在最后形成的数据文件中，也就是说过去和未来数据的 Schema 可以不同，不同 Schema 的数据可共存，固然 Druid 不是 Schemaless 的，但调整也是比较灵活的\n\n在时序数据上，ES 也有类似功能，提供了全文检索的模式，并提供访问原始事件级数据，也提供了分析和汇总支持，但根据研究，ES 在数据获取和聚集上资源消耗比在 Druid 高，Druid 侧重于 OLAP 工作流程，以较低的成本设计了聚集和获取的高性能方案（亿级百列数据查询时间是 mysql cluster 的1/100~1/10），提供了结构化事件数据的一些基本的搜索支持，更偏重于数据汇总分析。\n为了性能，你开启了预聚合 rollup，这会带来信息量的丢失，因为 roll-up 的粒度会变成最小的数据可视化粒度。如果以分钟粒度进行 roll-up，那么入库后能查看的数据最小粒度即为分钟级别。\nSegment设计\nSegment 是 Druid 的一个关键抽象，是一种不可变（但有版本控制）数据结构。Druid 可看作是 Lambda 的第一个实现。\nSegment 的不可修改性简化了 Druid 的实现，但若你有修改数据的需求，重创建 Segment的 Bitmap indexing 过程是比较耗时的。其能接受的数据结构相对简单，不能处理嵌套结构的数据。\nDruid 用 Lambda 架构分别处理实时数据和批量数据。数据存储在 Datasource 中，类似 RDBMS 中的 Table，每个 Datasource 中按时间划分，每个时间范围称为一个 Chunk（一般一天一个 Chunk），在一个 Chunk 中数据根据维度的Hash 或范围分成一个或多个Segment，每个 Segment 都是一个单独文件，通常含几百万行数据，这些Segment 是按时间组织的，所以在按时间查询时，效率非常高。\n\n实际上，Datasource 和 Chunk 都是抽象的，Druid 底层存储就是 Segment，一个 Segment 生成后就无法被修改，只能通过生成一个新 Segment 来替代旧的。Segment 的命名规则可帮助快速找到需要查的 Segment 文件。不同列的数据都单独保存一个文件的话，会产生很多小文件，严重影响文件系统读写性能，因此每个字段数据生成好后，会以二进制拼接的方式合成一个文件以提升性能，在逻辑上，不同列的数据存储是分开的。\n\n在数据摄取准备时，要敲定查询的最小粒度，如 hour，查询最小粒度要&lt;= Segment 分块文件粒度\nDruid 使用 Segment 时会以多级缓存的方式使用，除了可靠存储，还会在内存中及服务器硬盘上加载 Segment 作为缓存。开启预聚合（rollup）特性的 Segment内部也会不一样，可大幅减少数据存储量，提升查询效率，关闭 rollup 则 Segment 中会保留写入的原始数据。\n让 Druid 在繁重的查询压力下保持良好的操作性能，应让 segment 文件大小在 300mb 至 700mb 之间。其在设计之初，为了追求亚秒级的 OLAP 能力，对精准去重计算，不支持，只提供近似查询。在实时要求程度不高的情况下，可通过时间换空间的方式，对需要计算的字段做 group by 查询，然后 count(1)实现精确去重，\n行数据结构剖析\nDruid 中每一行包含 3 部分：时间戳，维度和指标。\n\n时间戳就是该条数据产生或保存的时间，主要作用有划分 Segment，按照某种时间粒度预聚合数据等。\n指标就是一些整数或浮点数值，也可能是复杂数据结构如 HyperUnique，用来在查询时聚合得到结果。\n维度相对复杂点，因为在查询时要支持 filter，group by 操作，每列维度值会保存 3 个数据结构来记录（如10 行数据，某列数值取值如下)\n\n$$\n\\begin{bmatrix}\nA\\\nA\\\nB \\\nC \\\nB \\\nC \\\nD \\\nC \\\nD \\\nD \\\n\\end{bmatrix}\n$$\n\n取值字典：每个值映射为一个 ID，可理解为独热编码表\n\n&quot;A&quot;:0&quot;B&quot;:1&quot;C&quot;:2&quot;D&quot;:3\n\n10 行/每一行取值的 ID：行数据的独热编码表示。用于支持 group by 和 TopN 查询。\n\n[0,0,1,2,1,2,3,2,3,3]\n\n每个取值对应的 Bitmap（对 AND 和 OR 操作速度非常快），在 Segment 存储中会以 concise/roaring 方式压缩。独热码表值在此列的位置分布。\n\n0:[1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]1:[0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0]2:[0,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0]3:[0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,1]\n位图索引再举例\n举一个更直观的例子，如下表数据\n\n\n\n时间戳\n维度列\n\n指标列\n\n\n\n\ndt\nloc\nitem\namount\n\n\n2022-01-01\n北京\n书\n100\n\n\n2022-01-01\n北京\n电脑\n200\n\n\n2022-01-01\n上海\n电脑\n300\n\n\n2022-01-01\n广州\n手机\n400\n\n\n2022-01-01\n杭州\n水果\n500\n\n\n2022-01-01\n北京\n书\n600\n\n\n\nDruid 将如上数据结构构建位图索引，来实现快速查找\n\n\n\n原始值\n列值编码\nBit\nm\na\np\n位\n图\n\n\n\n\n北京\n0\n1\n1\n0\n0\n0\n1\n\n\n上海\n1\n0\n0\n1\n0\n0\n0\n\n\n广州\n2\n0\n0\n0\n1\n\n0\n\n\n杭州\n3\n0\n0\n0\n0\n1\n0\n\n\n书籍\n4\n1\n0\n0\n0\n0\n1\n\n\n电脑\n5\n0\n1\n1\n0\n0\n0\n\n\n手机\n6\n0\n0\n0\n1\n0\n0\n\n\n水果\n7\n0\n0\n0\n0\n1\n0\n\n\n\nselect sum(amount) as totalamout from table where loc=&quot;北京&quot; and &quot;item&quot;=&quot;电脑&quot;\n那么根据位图，查询条件就是（110001）&amp; （011000）= (010000)所标 1的行，也就是第 2 行。\n设计讨论\nDruid vs Impala\nDruid 和 Impala 的比较基本可归结为需要设计什么样的系统。\n\n\nDruid 被设计为一直在线的服务（所以其容灾，扩容再平衡都做得很完备, 各种nodes挂掉都不会使得 Druid 停止工作，但状态会无法更新），可获取实时数据。在查询速度方面，Druid 是列存储方式，数据经过压缩加入到索引结构中，&quot;压缩&quot;增加了 RAM 中数据存储能力，能使 RAM 适应更多的数据快速存储。支持时间序列和 group by 样式的查询，但不支持 join。\n\n\nImpala 可认为是 HDFS 之上的后台程序缓存层。Impala 基于 HDFS 或其它后备存储，限制了数据获取的速度。支持 SQL 样式的查询。\n\n\nDruid vs Kylin\nDruid 是 OLAP 计算+存储二者一肩挑设计，Kylin 是一个离线预处理框架，依赖 Spark 和 YARN 做计算，然后用 Hbase 保存预处理结果，而后进行展示。它们二者都对 HDFS 有依赖，Druid 只把 HDFS 当做远程离线存储，但实际计算过程并不使用。而 Kylin使用的是 Hadoop 技术栈，中间计算过程和最后计算结果里面都会用到 HDFS。\nDruid 有灵活的预聚合能力，可利用 HyperLogLog 算法做多维的 UV 聚合，而 Kylin 则是使用强大的位图计算，做了精确的 UV 计算能力。\n新的Topic与期待\n全频谱可平衡支持\n新一代数据平台系统需要形成一个从离线到实时的全频谱计算能力，在\n\nData Freshness\nResource Costs\nQuery Performance\n\n的不可能三角里给用户提供多种不同平衡的选择。面向未来的系统，应能做到一套系统一套资源，针对上述三个方向的不同平衡点，为用户提供多种选项，实现从离线到实时的全频谱。\n数据网格\nData Mesh 是一种数据管理方法，强调数据的分布式架构和以业务领域为中心的数据所有权和治理权，促进数据的可访问性和质量。从侧面也反映了以中央IT团队来管理数据搞不好。\n\n数据量过大或中央数据管理人员对数据不够了解，那么数据湖可能无法确保数据质量。数据网格架构的基础理念是将数据视作有价值的产品，那么数据的质量和完整性就成为数据管理的重点。\n将企业内特定数据集的所有权和职责，分散至具备专业知识的用户（能深入了解并充分利用这些数据），同时通过标准化和自动化来保证整体的一致性和互操作性，发挥数据的价值。\n另外数据湖的集中式架构，数据检索流程和程序一直较复杂，很容易出现瓶颈，大量整合数据的管控工作全压到了一个 IT 团队肩上，随着这些数据量和数据检索需求的增加，这些IT 团队会不堪重负，合规任务也可能会被仓促了事，引入潜在的风险和损失。\n\nstateDiagram-v2\n\t\tstate1:面向领域的所有权\n\t\tstate2:数据即产品\n\t\tstate3:自助式数据平台\n\t\tstate4:联邦计算治理\n    state1 --> state2:防止数据孤岛\n    state1 --> state3:赋能领域团队\n    state1 --> state4:增加参与度，减少领域孤立\n    state2 --> state3:降低所有权成本\n    state2 --> state4:通过互连数据产品获得更高阶价值\n    state4 --> state3:网格级别一致可靠的策略执行\n    note left of state2 : 产品思维应用于数据管理：可发现、可理解、可信赖\n    note left of state3\n    支持去中心化数据管理\n    简化数据产品创建和使用过程\n    end note\n    note right of state4\n    通过自动化和计算实现政策执行\n    平衡域自主性和全局互操作性\n    end note\n数据安全\n数据本身已经成为一种资产，有非常好的资产变现和产生额外价值的能力和需求。同时，数据很可能涉及隐私泄露，这就形成了有关数据安全，隐私保护和数据共享的矛盾。在隐私和安全的情况下做到更好的数据共享和变现成了新热点。\n数据安全不仅仅是一个权限问题，还涉及很复杂的系统架构，包括权限管理，用户隔离，存储加密，异地备份，敏感数据/风险行为的识别。\n安全共享这个方向包括两个核心场景：一方数据对外共享，多方数据共同计算。第二点是多方的数据交叉计算或者叫联邦计算。这里面包含两项核心技术，一个是基于隐私计算的数据交互，一个是基于联邦学习的数据交互。不论是一方域内多租的安全模式，还是跨域多方的安全共享模式，目前都是领域热点。\nIOT 时代的不同\n目前的大数据系统处理的数据主要是人的行为日志，如浏览记录，手机上对App的点击操作等，都会以日志形式传到系统中，反馈给推荐系统，广告系统。\n后续接入网络的硬件设备的数据慢慢会超过人的数量，IOT数据处理也会成为一个热点。但大多数时候设备数据并没有太多意义和价值，只有出问题的时候数据才会产生波动，这种情况下如何有效收集设备产生的数据，海量数据无法全量上云，需要在端侧做一定处理，就成了新的需求，也就是端云协同，是IOT的特点，不过也实在没什么新鲜，没有技术难度。\nDW Automation\n\n国内最大的互联网公司，内部数据量均在EB级别，作业量每天百万级别以上。\n主流客户其实都在PB级的数据规模，有些在百PB级别。\n\n面对这么大的数据规模，传统DBA以人为轴来开展数据管理和优化的方式不再胜任。这种复杂的数据组织和优化需更多的基于AI的自动化技术来完成。如通过机器学习自动进行数据分层，依据访问的统计判断什么样的数据更重要，那些作业可放在冷存储上。\n几朵乌云\n\n计算引擎的多样化，最终能否诞生一套onesize4all的引擎满足多样的计算需求，兼顾通用性和效率\n\n\n现在大家几乎还是通过拼接不同引擎来搭建自己的计算平台，如Spark做批处理，Flink做流处理，Clickhouse做交互分析，再复杂点，可能还要部署Hbase做KV查询，用ES做文本检索。虽每个单独产品已比较成熟，但整个系统复杂度非常高，这里面就蕴含着标题的期待。\n\n\n基于开源自建还是选购企业级产品\n\n\n开源软件免费，但需要独立的团队去支撑这一大数据平台的部署和运维，带来相对较高的维护成本（一个简答的公式是：对于百台规模的平台，基于开源软件自建的总TCO=物理硬件成本+开发维护人力成本=物理硬件成本*2）。\n头部的技术公司，规模较大，人力边际成本低。非头部企业直接购买SAAS化企业级平台，综合成本更低，享受更好的性能，安全性，稳定性和兜底能力。当然另一面就是技术黑盒和高改造成本（需平台厂商来做）的问题。\nSnowflake开箱即用全托管平台大受欢迎，Databricks以开源生态为主线也形成广泛客户群体。组装还是直接买笔记本，答案在客户手中。\n\n\n关系模型外，是否会发展处其它主流计算范式\n\n\n数据库数仓已发展40+年，主流计算范式就是二维关系表达，近10年，深度学习带来新的计算方式，有没有更新一代会产生？\n图计算当前最被看好（点边模型）。但数据库技术发展过程中也诞生了图计算模式，且发展多年，但目前仍不是主流，但随着图学习(graphembedding)的兴起，是否会焕发新生，值得期待。\n\nOther\n大家都说软件工程师，软件产业，但需要从 Code/Program观念转变成 Data 观念，在做任何设计和开发时，要把 Data 放在第一位，这样才是 Information Technology 行业。\n海量数据一直在增长，但我们应想办法控制下来，未来的趋势要考虑缩小海量数据，而不是任凭它扩张。\n太多初创企业陷入错误的逻辑：大数据=非结构化数据=hadoop，非结构化和半结构化数据的利用是呈现了爆炸式增长，但也要注意到，结构化数据的使用上，也出现了指数式增长。\n搞起来了，自有人会来光顾。这是错误的观念，想用大数据创业，业务专长必须有，同时技术也必须保证是尖端的，这些都是普通商户所缺乏的，如何帮助非技术型用户在其日常工作中轻松使用数据才是问题的关键。\n参考\n1.Segmentfault 简单认识 KMV Sketch 估算算法 ↩2.CSDN 开源 OLAP 技术架构对比 ↩3.51CTO 数据湖三剑客对比 ↩4.腾讯云 Druid Segment存储格式 ↩5.腾讯云 解读数据架构的2021 ↩6.腾讯云 基于 Iceberg 扩展 Doris 数据湖能力的实践 ↩7.搜狐 主流开源OLAP系统的分类及核心技术点 ↩8.搜狐 主流开源OLAP引擎大比拼 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"数据倾斜浅述","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%80%BE%E6%96%9C%E6%B5%85%E8%BF%B0.html","content":"\n数据倾斜\n数据倾斜即指在大数据计算任务中某个处理任务的进程（通常是一个JVM进程）被分配到的任务量过多，进程运行时间超长甚至最终失败，进而导致整个计算任务超长时间运行或失败的问题。\n\n外部表现的话，在MR任务（如跑HiveSQL）里看到map或reduce的进度一直是99%持续数小时没有变化；\n在SparkSQL任务重则是某个stage里，正在运行的任务数量长时间是1或者2不变。\n\n简而言之，如果任务进度信息一直在输出，但内容长时间没有任何变化的时候，大概率是出现数据倾斜了。\n\n\n有个特例需要注意，有时大家会看到SparkSQL的任务信息也显示有1到2个任务在运行中，但进度信息不再刷新而表现为假死很久的时候，这通常是进行最后阶段的文件操作，并不是数据倾斜（这通常意味着小文件问题严重）\n\n类型分类\n读倾斜\n在读取数据阶段长期无法完成，这通常是因为文件分块过大或分块数据有异常，这种情况出现频率较小。\n算倾斜\n即在某个需要排序（如开窗函数或非广播关联时）或者聚合操作时候，同一个key（通常是一个或者多个字段或者表达式的组合）的处理耗时过长。这通常是最多的情况，情况也较为复杂。\n大数据中动辄上亿行的数据，如果有排序（order by或sort by）的需求且数据量巨大的话，通常会产生溢写磁盘的操作，非常耗时，且容易造成OOM异常。99.99%的大数据场景下，完全的排序都是不必要的，因为业务通常需要的统计信息而非具体某一条记录的细节信息。\n写倾斜\n即某个操作需要输出大量数据，如超过几亿或者几十亿行。主要出现在关联后数据膨胀或某些只能由一个task来操作（如limit）的情况。\n表关联，举例两张表join可能产生数十亿行记录。问题本质是一个task最多由一个进程来执行，而相同的key也必须在同一个task中处理。因为在无法改变这个机制的前提下，我们只有想办法减少一个task输出的行数\n文件操作倾斜\n即数据生成在临时文件夹后，由于数量巨大，重命名或移动的操作非常耗时，这通常发生在动态分区导致小文件的情况。\n原因剖析与解决出发点\n为什么会有数据倾斜\n\n业务数据分布规律无法预知，比如系统无法不经过计算而提前知道某个表的某个字段的取值分布是否大致均匀\n计算结果数量无法预知。比如两表关联的结果对于某些key（关联一个字段或多个字段组合）的输出行数无法不经过计算而预知而针对性处理：又比如某个字段的值进行split操作或者explode等操作后产生的结果数量无法预知而进行针对性的应对\n某些操作只能由单一节点进行，一切需要维护一个全局状态的大多数操作，如排序、limit、count、distinct、全局聚合等，一般会安排到一个节点来执行，有概率导致在单节点上处理巨量的数据，造成所谓的倾斜问题。\n\n当然，这些困难并不是理论上不可避免的，随着时间的推移，越来越多的针对性优化措施已逐渐出现（如spark3已经能自动应对部分数据倾斜的情况了），也许在不久的将来业务同学不会再被倾斜问题烦恼，但现阶段还需数据开发工程师主动关注并应对。\n从业务逻辑审视出发\n如果发生了数据倾斜，有不小的概率是业务逻辑/需求不合理，需要跟业务方反复确认逻辑的合理性，优化业务逻辑一定要高过优化技术方案。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"数据库schema概念差异","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93schema%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n涉及到数据库的模式有很多疑惑，问题经常出现在模式和数据库之间是否有区别，的确有区别，取决于数据库供应商，各家数据库系统倾向于以自己的方式处理模式(schema)这个概念。\n概念厂商差异\nMySQL\nMySQL文档指出：在概念上，模式是一组相互关联的数据库对象，如表，表列，列的数据类型，索引，外键等等；但在物理上，模式和数据库是同义的，所以schema和database是一回事，在MySQL中create schema和create database可以混用\n\nOracle\n\nA schema is a collection of logical structures of data, or schema objects. A schema is owned by a database user and has the same name as that user.Each user owns a single schema\n\nOracle的文档却指出，某些对象可存储在数据库中，但不能存储在schema中，因此二者不是一回事，schema是数据或模式对象的逻辑结构的集合，由数据库用户拥有，且与该用户具有相同的名称，也就是每个用户拥有一个独立的schema。Oracle的schema与数据库用户密切相关。\n在oracle中，create schema实际并不创建一个模式，因为在创建用户时，数据库用户就已经创建了一个模式，也就是说在oracle中create user就创建了一个schema。create schema语句允许你将schema同表和视图关联起来，并在这些对象上授权，从而不必在多个事务中发出多个SQL语句\nSQL Server\n\nThe names of tables,fields,data types and primary and foreign keys of a database\n\nSQL Server说schema是server内部一个独立的实体，和database不是一回事，包含了数据库的表，字段，数据类型以及主键和外键的名称。与MySQL不同，create schema创建了一个单独定义到数据库的模式，但自然也和oracle不同，在SQL Server中，一旦创建了模式，就可以往模式中添加用户和对象。\n差别清单\n\n\n\nDBMS\nDatabase/Schema\nImplicit schema\n\n\n\n\nJust schemas\n\n\n\n\nOracle\nServer =&gt; Schema = User\nN/A\n\n\nMySQL\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nMariaDB\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nTeradata\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nFirebird\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nInterbase\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nSQLite\nFile = Database = Schema\nmain\n\n\nDatabases and schemas\n\n\n\n\nSQL Server\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\ndbo\n\n\nPostgreSQL\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nAzure SQL Database\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\ndbo\n\n\nIBM Db2\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\nN/A\n\n\nAmazon Redshift\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nSnowflake\nWarehouse =&gt; Database =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nSAP/Sybase ASE\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\ndbo\n\n\nSAP HANA\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\nN/A\n\n\nVertica\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nIBM Informix\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\nN/A\n\n\n\n\n逻辑概念的命名空间\nschema的另一个含义是大多数关系型数据库引擎用于对对象分组的特定元素。\n可以把schema认为是一个命名空间(namespace)或容器(container)，其中包含有表、视图和函数等。\n数据库(database)的所有者就是schema的所有者\nschema的功效\n主要在以下的场景中将database拆分为多个schema(namespace):\n\n容易为整个schema来分配权限，可以基于用户访问权限应用安全权限来分隔和保护数据库对象\n为两个或多个不同的表(或其他对象)使用同一个name\n对相似的对象进行分组来降低复杂度，数据库对象的逻辑分组可以被数据库管理起来，schema可以将数据库对象组织成逻辑分组。\n同一个schema可以用在不同的数据库中\n可以很容易地对几个schema的ownership进行切换\n\n国内的信创数据库生态\n产业图谱\n\n\n征集+评选，填写“数据库产品与产业图谱调研表”，发送至liusiyuan@caict.ac.cn，邮件主题为“企业名称+数据库产品与产业图谱”。权当个信息黄页看吧，中国组织编纂的官方机构不少呢，且并不是NGO，你去参加IT技术峰会也能感知到。\n\n数据库溯源图谱\n\n经实证mermaid的mindmap效果离专业的脑图工具还有不小的差距\n\nmindmap\n  root[国产OLTP数据库谱系]\n    ((自研))\n      (Oracle兼容)\n        达梦DMB\n        浪潮K~DB\n        科蓝软件SunDB\n      (RocksDB分布式)\n        TiDB\n        OceanBase\n      (巨杉数据库SequoiaDB)\n    ((PostgreSQL))\n      (华为 Open Gauss)\n        海量 VastBase\n        人大金仓 KingBase\n        南大通用 Gbase 8c\n        神舟通用 神通V7\n        中国移动 磐维数据库\n        云和恩墨 MogDB\n        超图软件 Yukon禹贡\n        超聚安 FusionDB\n      (PGXC)\n        华为 GaussDB\n        腾讯 TBASE\n        亚信 AntDB\n      (PG社区版)\n        瀚高 ivorySQL\n        优炫 UXDB\n        阿里 PolarDB~PG\n        恒生电子 LightDB\n        浪潮 kaiwuDB\n        中国电信 TeleDB PG\n    ((MySQL))\n      阿里\n      \tRDS~MySQL\n      \tPolarDB~mysql\n      腾讯 TDSQL\n      万里开源 GreatSQL\n      中兴通讯 GoldenDB\n      热璞 HotDB\n      星环 KunDB\n      百度 GaiaDB\n      中国电信 TeleDB~mysql\n      石原子科技 StoneDB\n    ((Informix))\n      南大通用 Gbase 8s\n      星瑞格 SinoDB\n      华胜 xigemaDB\n开源社区精神在于众人拾柴火焰高，不过在数据库主版本一路迭代时，大多数企业并未安排数据库升级合并，另一些基于自身需求做的功能增强和社区主版越行越远（未积极融入社区讨论与回馈），最终变成主版本更新迭代很多代了，自己的核心还停留在上个世纪，这点上在PG社区尤为明显（国内基于PG的自研数据库，已经没办法再去merge最新的PG15的代码，如PolarDB for PG，和PG的差距越来越大，最终决定开源自己的Polar for PG版本）。\n用户使用数据库，必伴随着应用系统，中间件，操作系统，硬件平台等上下游产品，另一方面在整个数据库销售链条当中也涉及分销商，增值渠道商，独立软件开发商，系统集成商，数据库运维伙伴一系列的商业链条。从学术上来看，又要考虑高效合作（顶会期刊与成果转化），独立应用开发商合作，周边生态产品合作（管理工具，调优工具，报表工具，SQL工具）。\n用户选择视角\n对用户来讲，考察主要在如下几点：\n\n兼容性：是否兼容主流标准，主流开发工具和报表工具\n合作伙伴：是否有足够多的合作伙伴，已基于该产品进行了二次开发或加工，有多少解决方案\n案例多不多：踩着别人的脚印走，不容易踩到💩\n\n谱系说明\nOracle兼容\n主选手是武汉达梦，及浪潮K-DB数据库，产品功能和特性，基本复刻Oracle，如RAC这样的技术。\nMySQL兼容\n最为流行的数据库，簇拥衍生品肯定不缺。但一方面MySQL存在数据量上面的瓶颈，和Oracle的差异化概念设计也一定程度上制约它的迁移替代机会，给了PG库施展魅力的空间。\nPG兼容\n开源界除开Mysql，就是PostgreSQL备受喜爱，除开上面说的MySQL问题，另MySQL/MariaDB的GPL开源协议，不允许衍生品作为闭源软件发布和销售，只能卖服务，这使得国内厂商望而生畏，导致大量倒向BSD协议的PG，如巨杉数据库，腾讯TBase等。\nOpen Gauss体系\n源自PG9的变体，现在也作为一个独立的生态体系存在。自主可控了，国内有不少数据库转投open gauss阵营，如人大金仓，MogDB等。\nInformix兼容\n2005年，IBM对中国公司销售informix源代码，与IBM签订源代码授权的公司有华胜天成，南大通用和星瑞格，故成为引进Informix源代码发展国产数据库的代表\n自研分布式\n基于LSM树的数据库，因其优秀的写友好及高并发，也有非常优秀的产品。典型的就是TiDB和OceanBase，基于LSM-Tree，结合Paxos或Raft协议实现分布式高可用。\n另SequoiaDB巨杉数据库，是一款金融级分布式数据库，支持创建多种类型数据库实例MySQL，MariaDB，PostgreSQL，SparkSQL四种关系型数据库实例，JSON文档类数据实例，及S3对象存储的非结构化数据实例。\n参考\n1.What is a Database Schema? ↩2.What is Database Schema ↩3.国产数据库选型生态篇 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["数据库"]},{"title":"文学回忆录-上","url":"/%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95-%E4%B8%8A.html","content":"\n当我读完陈丹青牵头出版的木心讲课笔录–文学回忆录两册时，总体觉得体系化不好，毕竟木心用序言里的人的话说，木心老先生是位艺术家，他不是专职的文学评论家，但正因为其艺术家的特色，敢言，金句频出，我们暂不论金句是否经得起全面推敲，对于我这个文学白痴来说，这些内容已经受用良多，起到一定的观点体会，提纲挈领的作用，故从厚厚的书中摘录出这么上下两篇，我也对其内容进行归类重调整出现顺序，让自己有意回顾时能更加高效。\n也看过网上对于木心水平的争论，最早听到他的名字到是从中国好歌曲中的《从前慢》，故就埋下了一份好奇，价值敢言的陈丹青对其这位老师的推崇，不惧骂战，必要实际一窥，才有自我公正的看法。从文学阅读的品味和经典来说，这套书确实不是非常好（一部分也是也是我认为其观点有时是矛盾和随意的，且因受过迫害颇崇洋抑汉），但一本书其实有两三页有干货，已值回书价，对我这种文学瞎子，通过文字与不同时代的人产生交流，得知直接简短的观点，已受用很多，后续就是要扩大阅读，达到兼听则明，形成大而整的个人知识体系。\n文学的起源\n文学的起源：战歌，祷词，劳动号子。古人类最大的快乐是什么，唯物主义说劳动，唯心主义称始于性爱，可能最大的快乐是战争胜利后，打败敌人必有唱跳欢乐，久而久之，众声和谐者，易牢记，易传播，久而久之，诗出。劳动是苦的，做爱是静悄悄的，唯战争胜利是大规模的，开放的，故有声，声有歌，歌有诗。对神的崇拜是初民的精神生活，祈求必出声，高唱即祷词。\n\nAmazons在神话传说中也是吵架国，因为全是女人。\n中国的神话，太现实，神权，夫权，谁管谁，渗透神话，令人惧怕；希腊神话无为而治，自在自为。\n\n最早的文学，即记录人类的骚乱，不安，始出个人的文学，所有伟大的文艺，记录的都不是幸福，而是不安和骚乱。\n\n希腊神话传说\n克里特岛\n在克里特岛迷宫杀死牛头人身怪物的英雄忒修斯后来成为专制暴君，人民反，逼他退位，流放后被民推导海中死。在克里特岛的这则传说中，可以这样解读，牛象征欲望，迷宫（楼）象征社会，监囚人，包括婚姻，法律，契约。唯一的办法是飞，艺术家，天才，就是要飞。然而飞高（蜡沾的翅膀被日光融化），狂而死。青年艺术家不懂，但他的父亲是老艺术家，懂。飞出迷楼，靠艺术的翅膀。\n金羊毛\n另外金羊毛的故事为何闻名？原来史学家认为这是希腊第一次航海记录，商业远航，金羊毛，即东方的财富象征。\n艺术，哲学，宗教，都是人类的自恋，都在适当保持距离时，才有美的可能，真的可能，善的可能。如果你把宗教当做哲学对待，就有了距离，就能看清宗教究竟是什么，同理其它。如果讲宗教当做宗教来信，就迷惑了；将哲学做哲学来研究，就学究了；将艺术作艺术来玩弄，就玩世不恭了。\n希腊神话可以概称为“人的倒影”，妙在倒影比本体更大更强，整个人类文化就是自恋，动物对镜子不感兴趣，只有人感兴趣。早古人类的疑问，是自问自答，因无人回答，故神话以人类自问自答的方式流传，人格化，也是一种文学雏形，在早期是口传，好则留，坏则不留。近世，传播出版发达，却相反，坏的（流俗的）变得容易传播多了，降低了高雅的比例。\n早期历史上的哲学家从不写书，学生记下，宗教家更如此，由弟子传。\n史诗\n各民族有各自的童年，荷马史诗风格，迅速，直捷，明白，壮丽，读原文最明显。最伟大的诗人是瞎子，就像上帝让最伟大的的音乐家耳聋。\n\n\n《伊利亚特》-- 漫长的战争（一系列的战绩），阳刚\n\n\n《奥德赛》-- 漫长的奇迹（漫长而曲折的旅程），阴柔\n\n\n印度史诗二十万行，相当于荷马史诗的八倍，是世上最长的史诗。《摩柯婆罗多》出在印度之西，《罗摩衍那》出在印度之东。前者讲战争，后者讲英雄，前者艰深，有哲学，难懂，后者浪漫，易传。神话，英雄，加天才，即史诗，中国没有此物。\n如果有人能以诗的形式改写《三国演义》，或不输《荷马史诗》，但改写者必须具有荷马的天才–世界各大国，大族的历史都丰富悲壮，然而伟大的诗才太少了，中国没有史诗流传下来。历史学家要的是当然，艺术家要的是“想当然”。\n哲学，宗教，艺术\n哲学\n什么是哲学，是思考宇宙，思考人在宇宙的位置，思考生命意义，无功利可言。宇宙观决定世界观，世界观决定人生观，老子庄子，尼采，释迦牟尼，都从这样的顺序而思考。\n哲学家中，只有尼采一人觉察到哲学的不济，坦率的说了出来，其它哲学家不肯承认思想历程的狼狈感。中国百家争鸣时三百年出10个哲学家，不算太多，不幸是后面不再出了，吃老本吃了两千年，坐吃山空，所以唯物论进来的时候，没有抵挡。\n中国哲学，更像是老年哲学，唯有李耳思想最透彻，完全绝望，看破两大神秘，一是天，宇宙；二是人，生命。天地不仁，这个观察过程一定很长，所以相信老子真的很老。且说到圣人不仁，以百姓为刍狗，打破你一切幻想\n在智慧层次上，宗教低于哲学；宗教的善有善报，恶有恶报是低层次的，平民的，乡愿的。善之可爱，皆因无报偿。\n\n历史使人通达，哲学使人明智。\n\n一个哲学家，总得自己定一个点，定一个名。叔本华，自由意志，尼采，权力意志，黑格尔，总念，孔丘是仁，孟轲是义，韩非是法，老子是道。定名是哲学家，感知而不定名是艺术家。\n中国哲学家\n诸子百家，是伦理学家，研究社会结构人际关系；是政治家，讨论治国之策。只有老子思考宇宙，生命，庄子是老子的延续，是老子哲理的艺术化。\n老子是阿婆罗式的，冷静观照，光明澄澈。庄子是狄俄尼索斯式的，放浪形骸，郁勃汪洋。老子是古典的，庄子是浪漫的。老子是苦行的，庄子是享受的，老子内敛克制，以少胜多，以柔克刚，庄子外溢放射，意多繁华，傲慢逍遥。一个像音乐，一个像舞蹈，想西方的日神和酒神。\n老子生活的时代，是很坏的时代，政治卑鄙龌龊，各种治国理论纷纷出笼，而天下俞弄俞乱，他最早知道中国的两种特产，一是暴君，一是暴民。一代代暴君暴民，相互杀，相互转换，文学性呢，语言直白又含蓄，直截了当说出来，再想想，无限深意。\n\n天地不仁，以万物为刍狗（太阳照好人也照坏人）\n\n老庄和尼采通，魏晋高士和尼采通，鲁迅早年受尼采启示，早年才华品格也合乎尼采。不过在中国儒家思想势力太大，司马迁的最高价值是安邦治国，他们不会认为修身齐家治国平天下是小事。古时人不写商人，不写流氓，司马迁才气大，胆魄大，皆入文章，忘记了儒家的训诫。\n宗教\n一神论很难通向泛神，更不可能无神（基督教至今不灭，而不像希腊诸神已消失）。叔本华说，泛神论即客客气气的无神论。希腊之所以健康，是他们早在神的多元性上，伏下了无神论的观念（故中国也是无神论）。\n\n神学是宗教的催眠，我们开了几十年的会，哪里是改造思想，全是催眠，所谓催眠，就是我的意志控制你的意志。\n\n基督\n《旧约》的文字和思想，天然和谐，是由于希伯来人的语言，而《新约》作者似乎都是犹太人（除了圣·路加），以犹太人的思想注入希腊的范畴，这种和谐就不能再有了。《新约》作者采用口语化的文体（大概在耶稣离世30年后），很明智，得以广为宣传，信徒都属于中下阶层，耶稣的新都也多数来自这个阶级。\n要进窄门，引到灭亡的那门是宽的，引到永生那门是窄的，路是小的。\n\n基督教是个人主义，西方知识分子易相信，爱人如己。\n\n宗教的矛盾\n《圣经》中的矛盾：既是无边博大的爱，又是有选择的，很多人他们不爱，只在乎以色列人，看不起法利赛人，看不起税吏，看不起番邦“利未记”有一句：你要爱你的邻人如爱你自己。整个基督教真谛，就在这句，但正是这句问题最大，宗教总是从情理开始，弄到不合情理，逼人弄虚作假（跟佛家的以身饲虎一样）\n佛家\n佛家的前半段，就是悲观主义，道家的后半段，就是超人哲学。佛家以为生命是受苦，易经句句话向往阳刚，但不得已，以阴柔取之，道家以阴柔取阳刚（酒神精神）。\n佛经吸引中国人去研究，说明佛经的文学性，哲理性之丰富，研究佛经，是东方智者和知识分子的一个底。东方经典以佛经最高，波罗蜜多，即反复证明之意。佛教经典是庞大丰富杂乱的，而禅宗是精神快餐，易传。\n佛教与婆罗门教的关系，犹若基督教与犹太教的关系，新教与旧教之分。释迦牟尼，有神意的寂静沉默之人，牟尼，是寂静沉默之意。婆罗门教祭神，乔达摩不来这一套，只注重自我祈祷修行，唯重视悔过和祈祷，这和犹太教和基督教也类似。\n中国知识分子爱信小乘，终身做起。愚夫愚妇信大乘，要上天国，小乘有可能，大乘不可能。\n\n如来，不来不去之意，三生如来，指过去，现在，未来。\n\n基督教佛教都是平民的宗教，道家思想（不成其为宗教），极端贵族。\n艺术\n宗教是父母，艺术是孩子，艺术在童年时靠父母，长大后则难管，到了哀乐中年，渐渐老去，宗教管不着，艺术是单身汉，只有一个朋友，哲学。\n上帝是位立体的艺术家，艺术家只是平面的上帝。艺术家要安于平面，尼采和托尔斯泰都不安于平面，结果一个疯了，一个痴了。\n汤显祖在自己的书信中有言：智极成圣，情极成佛，佛比圣高，圣是现世的，佛是超脱的。汤显祖是极多情的，艺术家是什么呢？现实生活中用不了的热情，用到艺术中去，艺术家都是热情家，热情过盛。\n音乐中最任性的是贝多芬，乐谱中常标出”必须这样“，画家中最任性的是梵高，哲学家中最任性的是尼采。\n音乐是纯粹的，这是它的弱，也是它的崇高。\n行相与灵智\n行相型的艺术家，很好相处，可爱，纯粹。弄灵智的人不好办，都是有神论者，挟灵智而令众生。希腊雕刻是形相和灵智的合一，米开朗基罗也是，故灵智的达芬奇嫉妒他，拉斐尔是形相型的。\n形相到极致，灵智到极致，都是伟大的艺术家。\n人文教养\n画家如果对世界文化缺少概念和休养，文人画就没有了，对文学，文化没素养，会越来越糊涂。毕加索晚年，才气尽，习惯还在，但他内心清楚，他画不好了，脾气坏。中国以前讲琴棋书画要通，现在的科学家，问音乐多数是不懂的，以不懂为乐就不一定对。西方还保留通些的习惯，他们的人文教养正常。\n中国文学\n用衣装喻文学\n多少有名的文学，靠服装，琳琅满目，里面要么一具枯骨，要么一堆肥肉。庄子的衣裳就很讲究，汉人喜宽博，魏晋穿的潇洒，唐人华丽，宋人精巧，明清学唐宋不像，民国乱穿衣。文学，艺术，哲学，思想，像人的肉体一样，贵在骨骼比例关系，肌肉停匀得当，形体美好，穿什么衣服都好看。思想，情操，越是高超，深刻伟大，越是自然涌现。\n希腊神庙，柱子，浮雕，都可说是裸体的，圆就是圆，三角就是三角，到巴洛克，就穿衣服了，到洛可可，全是装饰，内在的真实被掩盖了。\n先秦两汉魏晋\n诗经大部分是民间歌谣，小部分是诗人作品，更小部分是贵族作品。\n离骚\n唐诗是琳琅满目的文字，屈原全篇是一种心情的起伏，充满辞藻，却总在起伏流动，一种飞翔的感觉，用的手法其实是古典意识流，时空交错。屈原很靳尚谗言，又恨王糊涂，遂写《离骚》，可能算是最早的“伤痕文学”。\n渔父劝屈原随波逐流，这是一种老庄哲学。《九歌》是楚国民间的宗教古歌，屈原改动，不动原来的体裁风格，不着痕迹把自己放进去，流露的很自然。《少司命》-有如行书《山鬼》-有如狂草，两篇是中国古典文学的顶峰之作，精神上是贵族的，其余篇幅都是正楷。\n史书\n中国最早的古书，是《尚书》，它不是文学著作，而是历史资料，档案，是古代文诰誓语的汇编，文笔简练，内容繁琐，不是文学。《尚书》后还有一部史书，《春秋》，也不能算文学作品，文笔简练到极点，如“郑伯克段于鄢“，这种高度概括，态度立场观点毫不假借（讥笑哥哥，责备弟弟，批评他们自己的家事弄到像两国交战），就叫做”春秋笔法“。《左传》作者生平不可考，他是第一个以文学水平写史书的人。\n《左传》、《国语》、《战国策》的文学成就不下于《史记》，更高古奇拔，司马迁会写实，像是画油画。\n\n当司马迁写出人物，忘掉儒家时，是他最精彩的部分。写屈原，以儒家精神写，写到鸿门宴，忘了儒家，写项羽即是一种无政府主义。\n\n古代的这光荣现象，因为文学家，史学家，哲学家都是贯通的，现代知识分工大势所趋，一分工，智慧分开。古代文化的总和性现象，一定出华而又实的大人物。\n百家争鸣画像\n中国文化是阴性的，以阴柔达到阳刚，西方则是直截了当的阳刚（耶和华，丘比特，宙斯；中国的始祖和保护神是女娲，王母娘娘，妈祖，观世音）。中国文化几乎没有哲学家，没有正式的大自然科学家。诸子百家是热心于王，霸的伦理学家，权术家，修身齐家治国平天下是哲学吗？兵家，法家，杂家都在权术范畴。\n老子奇怪，主张退，守，弱，柔，独一无二，一是他的气质，二是他吃够了苦，对付宇宙自然，对付人事生活，这般才能保全自己，《周易》也和老子哲学通，都是吃足苦头的经验。\n孔丘思想与李耳正好相反，乐观，积极，务实，以中庸之道架构人伦关系。他其实是一个庸俗的高级知识分子，内心复杂固执，智商很高，精通文学，音乐，讲究吃穿，欲望强盛，种种苛求，十分精致的虚伪，食不厌精脍不厌细，割不正不食…\n\n但只讲了儒家虚伪的一面，没讲儒家高能国家制度帮衬的一面，从人的角度来说，儒家确实枷锁多\n\n墨子是有技术的奴隶，非常好学，受业于儒者，但他有独立思考的能力，一上来就认为孔子的理论偏极端：礼制太烦琐，厚葬费财力，守丧三年太长，伤身体又误生产。他提出巨子学说，成立制度，有点像黑社会的教父，成员都能赴汤蹈火，视死如饴。\n\n墨翟比孔丘小几十年，释迦摩尼生于公元前500余年，比孔丘大几岁。当年希腊正在造宇殿，起塑像，唱歌，跳舞，饮酒，中国正在吵吵闹闹，百家争鸣，而印度正在吃食，绝食。\n\n\n庄子有批评墨子的套路反人性，注定无法长久，但无可磨灭墨子个人的自律精神伟大\n\n荀子赵国人，战国后期儒家大师，当时商鞅变法已过，孔子已死，他是儒学的总结，将法填入礼，才适合一代帝王的统治术，历来不肯明说，扬孔而隐荀。荀子是个强者，豪爽而实际，当时是个革新派，青出于蓝而胜于蓝就是《劝学篇》里的句子。\n韩非子是荀子的学生，是战国末年融汇诸子百家的任务，后称法理学家，文学特点笔锋犀利，说理透辟，通俗易懂，矛盾一词就出自他的《说难》\n老子精炼奥妙，庄子汪洋恣肆，孟子庄严雄辩，墨子质朴生动（若以墨子治国，中国早已是强国），韩非子犀利明畅，荀子严密透辟，孔子圆融周到(孔子调皮，滑头，话从不说死)。他们(这些巨子)的用字，用比喻，都成专利，别人冒充不得。\n汉魏晋\n中国历代大人物的自我期许，自我评价，现代话叫自我推销，古话叫做”言志“，魏晋人士的言志最好，狂而得体，不肉麻而能诗意洋溢。孔丘多重人格，表面一套，心里一套，标榜”君子泰而不骄“，却又熬不住，说出来。孔孟都是憋不住发出舍我其谁的感慨。\n汉的赋家，魏晋高士，唐代诗人，全从庄子来。\n中国的伦理观是孔孟的，艺术观是老庄的。\n唐诗\n李杜二人，承继有别，李白承《楚辞》，杜甫承《诗经》\n\n会当，唐人口语，一定要\n\n中国的文化，秦以前是人民的文学，秦以后是士大夫的文学，皇帝大臣刺史州官均会写诗。\n宋词\n范仲淹”先天下之忧“名句，很正经，但写起词来，和女人一样善感，词人一写词，多数都像女人一样。向来是婉约派占上风，算是词的正宗，词本来是小品，是小提琴，打仗可用枪炮，不要勉强小提琴去打仗，所以你推苏东坡，辛弃疾是弄错了方向。\n绝句律句，自齐到唐，到全盛期，渐渐太过成熟而烂，词开始的很早，在唐代，即有人写词，想《菩萨蛮》《忆秦娥》多数学者认为是李白写的，越是有才华，敏感的诗人，文人，越是开风之先。\n宋初出现所谓百年盛世，比较安定，城市经济繁华，文化渐盛，妓院场馆需唱，词于是发达，上下阶层均欢迎，上层写雅词，下层写俚词。\n辛弃疾，爱国词人，其实”官倒“很厉害，贪污也多。\n戏曲\n宋朝伶人唱的曲，其实是词，金人占据中国北部，词作者觉得格律不够表现强烈复杂的情绪，也太嫌斯文，不够口语化，便另创新形式，就是所谓北曲的起源。\n早期剧中配角只能白，不能唱，只有才子佳人才能唱。较复杂的故事，四折实在概括不了，北曲行了很久以后，南方才把北方的成例突破，无论哪个角色都可以唱，幕或折，都增加了。\n中国戏剧是官方也提倡，民间也热衷，咋没出世界性的大作品？中国剧作家的创作观念是伦理的，寓教于戏，起感化教育作用。容易写成红脸白脸，好人坏人，不在人性上深挖深究。儿女情长，长到结婚为止，英雄气短，短到大团圆，不再牺牲了。在人伦关系上转圈圈。\n莎翁的作品，无为，剧中有好人也有坏人，他关心怎么个好法，怎么个坏法，所以他伟大。人性，近看是看不清的，人间百态，莎翁退的很开。莎翁是放之四海而皆准，中国元曲，则不然。再其次，中国戏剧的唱词，念白，互不协调。唱有诗意，念则俗意，莎士比亚的唱词，念白，通体是诗。\n在戏剧中还夹着中国民族的一个偏好，什么呢，喜欢”作美“，职业媒婆多，业余媒婆更多。中国人爱这种团圆，状元，作美，是想把一切都当场在剧院里了结，西方不肯了结，带回家。\n明清小说\n古代民间文学都是白话文，白话文古已有之，绝非”五四“以后才有。小说，是现在的词，当时叫做平话，也就是”评话“，”说书“，以口语敷衍故事，带有动作，重点是说白。说书的人很能发挥，譬如讲武松进酒店，大喝一声，酒瓮嗡嗡作回答，完全是发挥创造。\n相较西方而言，小说的兴盛期明朝，多取唐人传奇，说明明人创作力不高，没有大灵感。\n\n一则边角小记，《狮吼记》写苏轼之友陈季常害怕老婆，其妻柳氏善妒，东坡设计赠以家姬，后以佛印禅师降服了号为河东狮子之柳氏。这是难得的喜剧，情节对白很风趣，人物逼真，流传广，从前讽人怕老婆，曰。贵公有季常癖乎。\n\n有些奇怪的是大部头书中，鲜提民间社会，如民间社会在《红楼梦》一点没有提到，《老残游记》,《儒林外史》也只稍稍点到，不应该忘记这些民间文化。\n历史小说是不容易写的好，太真实，呆板无趣（如东周列国，两晋演义）；离真实太远，则荒诞无据（如《杨家将》），只可惜当时没出伟大的文学家，不然可以又真实又文学，所以讲史平话盛极一时，都是宝塔，没有塔尖。塔尖在哪里呢？不是历史题材，而是纯粹的创作，《西游记》，《金瓶梅》。\n西游的争论与创作\n有过争论的《长春真人西游记》，实为李志常所写，相干的是杨致和《西游记传》，才两薄本，一说吴承恩放大了十倍，此说比较可靠，两本对照，可见吴本的高超。所以天才者，就是有资格挪用别人的东西，拿了你的东西，叫你拜倒，世界上只有这种强盗是高贵的，莎士比亚是强盗王，吴承恩这强盗也有两下子，想象他的性情，是个快乐人，大有趣，孙悟空的模特，就是他自己。\n东游记，南游记，北游记，故事变幻有趣，但文笔不济，远不如吴承恩的天才和功力，吴承恩把南游记，北游记的精华也拖了几段过来（铁扇公主即出于《南游记》），中国文学史从来没有像孙悟空这么一个皮大王，没有人这样大规模以动物拟人化，以人拟动物化。\n《西游记》后，写奇幻小说的有《封神传》,《三宝太监西洋记通俗演义》，封神榜故事场面大，多变，但文笔一般，限于民间社会，上不到文士阶层。哪吒闹海一段，写出了中国第二号异端，在忠孝至上的仁义之邦，哪吒是彻头彻尾的叛逆者。\n几部小说名著\n《金瓶梅》《西游记》《水浒传》三大奇书，三部奇书，奇在一部给男人看，一部给小孩看，一部给女人看。《水浒》着力写男人，女性带带过就算了，《西游记》童心烂漫，写个有童心的成人，《金瓶梅》对妇女性格的刻画，极为精细，近乎现代的所谓心理小说。\n《红楼梦》是浪漫的，《金瓶梅》是现代的。读红楼梦，难在你必须高于作者（指观点），方能了悟此书巨大的潜台词。\n《金瓶梅》更容易误解，太像性书，性通常是器官在活动，没有人，金瓶梅不然，器官在身上，还是写成了人，几乎是性的陀思妥耶夫斯基，完成了艺术，要靠你自己找出它的艺术。明朝富贵人家和平民百姓，淫风大盛，杨乃武小白菜的时代何尝不然。\n红书明朗，金书幽暗，放大瞳孔看，一如托尔斯泰明朗，陀思妥耶夫斯基幽暗。\n三言两拍限于民间社会，士大夫阶层不关心，以为不登大雅之堂。\n曹雪芹和红楼梦\n曹雪芹的伟大，分为两极，一是细节伟大，玲珑剔透：一痰一咳一物，都是水盈盈的，可把握的真颓废，比法国人精细多了；再者是整体控制的伟大：绝对残酷，不宠人物，当死者死，当病者病，当侮者侮。他一点不可怜书中人，始终坚持反功利，反世俗，以宝玉，黛玉来反。\n\n但看高晓松的评说，曹雪芹还是置了褒贬的，看不起焦大，看不起刘姥姥，推崇一群唇红齿白的正太处女。不似《金瓶梅》一般真实残酷，不置褒贬，一切白描，抛开架构和文字，《金瓶梅》更显得现代和突出。\n\n波斯文学，阿拉伯文学\n同样写饮酒，东方是借酒浇愁，忘忧，西方则是创造极乐，狂欢。\n大家没有读过《可兰经》，却多少听到过《一千零一夜》的故事，证明艺术比宗教更有生命。\n日本\n日本本国有名的思想家匮乏，都是从中国哪去和欧洲来的思想。\n平假名，片假名，其实是整个借字和局部借字之说。\n《源氏物语》作者紫式部是宫廷贵妇人，也是女官，父亲是大学问家，博学早寡，守在宫中，和《红楼梦》一样，是回忆文学，和红楼梦不一样的是，她写完了。\n日本的好处是没有成见，善于模仿，不动声色地模仿。喝茶，中国讲究差距，环境士大夫化，士大夫没有了，茶则沦为茶馆，卖茶叶蛋。日本则规规矩矩，恭恭敬敬弄成茶道，但其实也是野狐禅居多，将茶弄成形而上，成为一种礼，不过尊敬茶，也是尊敬自己。\n真正理解日本文化的还是中国人，我们看日本生活情调，居高临下，他们再好，再精致，我们一目了然。\n文艺复兴时代的西方文学\n蒸汽机推动了产业革命，印刷机推动了文艺复兴。\n马基雅维利的《君主论》，讲韬略权谋，与中国兵法比，更赤裸裸谈论权力与统治。拿破仑，俾斯麦都以马的理论为然，但培根的评价最为中肯，他说，我们十分感谢马基雅维利，他写出了人所做的事儿，而不是人应该做的事。\n《哈姆雷特》与《唐吉坷德》\n《哈姆雷特》与《唐吉坷德》是人类的两大类型。\n塞万提斯与莎士比亚同年同月同日死，典型西班牙男子冒险的一生。先与土耳其打仗，失左臂，醒来后人告知失臂，他说：那右臂就更伟大更有力量了。三十四岁写作，脾气不好，常入狱，出书后成名，一点好处也没有，还要饭。后十年写成《唐吉坷德》，这是一本从嘲笑开始，以祈祷结束的伟大的人道主义杰作，骑士的行径怪诞不经，悖于情理，可你读着读着，会深深同情他（骑士的善良被浪费了），这就是塞万提斯的文学魅力（伟大的善良）。\n\n骑士晚年退休后没有保障，弱者当雇佣兵，强者当强盗，制度没落了，塞万提斯就写骑士。\n\n写作是面对上帝（艺术），讲课是面对学生（朋友），演讲是面对群众（平民），对上帝说的话，绝不对门徒讲，同理类推，该懂的懂，不该懂的就让他不懂。\n许多作家喜欢死乞白赖地赖在角色身上，喜欢靠角色来说自己的话，可是莎士比亚，普希金，陀思妥耶夫斯基，福楼拜，司汤达，哈代，巴尔扎克，从不和剧中人发生暧昧关系，哈姆雷特是莎士比亚精神上的儿子，是莎翁所有名著中最大的一颗明珠，可是这位父亲一点不通私情，冷静看他儿子表演。\n哈姆雷特是个悲观主义者，但却是享乐主义者，是个思想者，不肯行动，觉得”我在思想里已做过一回了“，一个思想过度的人，行动非常软弱\n\n思想多而行动少 – 悲观而享乐，最吸引女性，但爱上这种人，不会有结果，林黛玉爱上一个贾宝玉。\n\n读欧洲历史，不可忘两种思潮：\n\n\n希伯来思潮\n\n希伯来思潮以基督教为代表，注重未来，希望在天堂，忽略现世，讲禁欲，组织上，教会统治一切.英国，希伯来思潮主流\n\n\n\n希腊思潮\n\n雅典文化为代表，讲现世，享乐，直觉。组织上讲民主自由。\n\n\n\n西方文艺复兴伟大大艺术家都是异教的，米开朗基罗的《大卫》，是古代以色列王，他弄成男性裸体美，当时何等大胆，不得了的大事。\n莫里哀死在舞台上，他的剧本影响法国日常用语，比任何法国文学家大。这种语言的实际影响和功劳，如但丁之于意大利，塞万提斯之于西班牙，莎士比亚之于英国。\n《鲁滨逊漂流记》是一个分水岭，逼真的文学替代了古代幻想的文学，古文学和新文学的分界在此。现代人喜欢真实，在陀思妥耶夫斯基之前，以为已写的真实了，到陀氏一出，啊！文学能那么真实，到普鲁斯特，更真实。\n文采/形式的重要\n一种思维，一种情操，来自品性伟大的人，那么这个人本身是个创造者，思维，情操的创造性，必然伴随着形式的创造性。艺术原理，形式，内容是一致的，没有形式的内容，是不可知的，独立于内容之外的形式，也是不可知的。后世哲学家不过是思想的翻版，盗版，不是创造性的，所以，不可能有文学性。\n**哲学家，史家，必须得兼文学家，否则无文采。孔丘是伦理学家，但他有文采。**艺术家要留名，一定要”文采风流“，拉斐尔不及芬奇，文才不及也。\n\n孔子说，不学诗，无以言。他懂得文采的重要。从汉朝开始，《诗经》不当做作品，而当做伦理，教条，格言，将其文学价值文学光辉淹没了，儒家使《诗经》没落，魏晋的文人还是很明显的受到《诗经》的影响，将其精神，技巧继承发扬了。\n\n\n从西方史诗到中国《诗经》，充满比喻，几乎是靠比喻架构完成的，劝君使其听，用比喻，对下民，知其不懂，也用比喻。\n古代画战争，伤的，死的，姿态优美，古人就是懂得一切讲姿态，你要永垂不朽，无穷魅力，必得讲究姿态。\n\n每一教的创教者，都是坦荡真诚的，有创造性。凡教会，就有功利性，然而又不能公开，故向上用经院哲学，向下是标语口号，任何一种意识形态，都先要从语言入手，共产运动也如此。\n\n孟子文学才能极高，这是他们占的优势，墨子吃点亏，老庄是不折不扣的艺术家，故赢得世界声誉。庄子和孟子同期，略小，二人从未谋面，文学源流，都从庄子来。\n\n格局与俗套\n文学家，固然要文字高超，最后还得靠“神智器识”统摄技巧，神智器识，可姑且解作世界观，世界观，意味着上有宇宙观，下有人生观。要不落俗套，有小俗套，大俗套，后者是别人的风格，对你来说就是俗套，别人的雅，就是你的俗。\n大的叛逆，要找大的主题，攻击上帝的，是尼采，攻击宇宙的，是老子，他们从来不肯指具体的人，事。鲁迅大量的讽刺文，对象太具体，今日没有人看了。\n嘲笑是文学的侧面，光靠嘲笑不能成其伟大的文学。庄子不老是嘲笑，仅用一用，余力用到文学的正面。\n历史只说悄悄话\n历史的契机，往往在”置死地而后生“，之于改革开放和文革。\n每一种文化，当它过去后，看回去，是有一个人作为前导，代表，象征。事前是无法预知的，事中，也是半知半觉，直到最后，它死了，同代人也不存在了，这时，历史开始说话，谁是前导，谁是代表，谁是象征。历史从不疾呼，历史只说悄悄话。\n少年人的指导\n一个人能否成大器，主观因素最重要（存在感？），被人忽略的是信心。天才幼年只有信心，没有计划。\n少年人一定要好的长辈指导，光是游历，没有用的。少年人大多心猿意马，华而不实，忽而兴奋，忽而消沉，很多青少年时期好机会错过了，没错过大多也被自己浪费了。\n后记\n木心讲课的框架底本，借自上世纪二十年代郑振铎的《文学大纲》。他不是学者，是个作家，是个艺术家，以作家身份谈文学史，遂有作家的“artistic excuse”，比较浅显，有很多乾纲独断的个人见解，金句也多。这也是我摘取记录的原因吧。\n\n人类的伟大高贵，完全在于精神生活，在于少数的精神贵族，即天才和天才的朋友（欣赏者）。\n连科技与真理的探索都不提，嗯，一口老血。\n\n总体上感觉其意见混乱，不成体系性，也不够严谨，随便。但对于文学白痴的我，翻看也能了解一些大体脉络，有自我分辨之心就好，善莫大焉。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文学"]},{"title":"文学回忆录-下","url":"/%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95-%E4%B8%8B.html","content":"\n总纲弥补\n历史是更伟大的圣经，文学史是在讲文学的圣经，学文学，就是文学的神学。\n精髓\n讲文学史课，胜于读书，就好在可以讲私房话\n动机\n这几年开讲文学，是为了他自己，是想训练口才，第一次讲完，气也透不过来，后来七八个小时也能讲，以后回大陆见人，可以当众说话。\n\n发现其课程里的确”私货“越讲越通畅，在这下半册中，的确内容很多，只可惜自己认识的文学家太少，读的太少，感同身受不得，所以摘录有限，算是一种无知的不太尊重。\n\n十九世纪的文学\n木心想，凡能搞起主义运动的，大致是二流角色，走兽飞禽中，可以找到例证：鹰，狮，虎，都是孤独的，不合群的，牛马羊蚁，一大群，还哇哇叫，最合群是蛆虫。“文革”最聪明，他们把你“隔离审查”，他们知道人是合群的，可是连陶渊明也受不了—结庐在人境，却无车马喧，只要一隔离，全部都完蛋。\n所以文学的黄金时代，是十九世纪，这时的大作家都不合群，那时没有作家协会，十九世纪是个光荣的世纪。偏近代的人的主观观点如此相似，反过来看十九世纪，叔本华，尼采，等等，都异乎寻常，这也是十九世纪的魅力。\n\n英国篇\n诗人\n歌德一有机会就赞美拜伦，因为在文学上或生活上，拜伦做了歌德想做而不敢做的事情。拜伦的个人之上，纯粹的独立和自由其实就是尼采的超人意志。可以说拜伦是“超人”的少年时期，和唐璜等都是语言蛮横的小伙子，不读书不看报，漫游抢劫乱伦，骂上帝，这位怀疑主义的子弟尚未成熟，他诗中的人物，都是捣蛋的美少年，胆大，气醇，赋厚。\n尼采一来，超人进入中年壮年，他不再如拜伦诅咒上帝，干脆宣布上帝已死，小老板（耶稣）又不在，一切重新估价，更提出系统的理论，这是哀乐中年说的话。\n雪莱与拜伦性格不一样，拜伦因为思想上的不成熟，呼天抢地地宣扬他的怀疑，雪莱也因为思想上的不成熟，欢天喜地维持他的信仰。\n\n西风颂有句：冬天到了，春天还会远吗，这是雪莱的名言，世界哪是这样的，好人读了要上当的。\n\n西方人真正会写的，是小说，不是诗，中国人反过来。但既然讲到那个时代的英国文学，也要说些积极的。那时的诗，已摆脱神话英雄故事，自湖畔诗派起，已倾向生活，爱，儿童，自然，属于感情上的民主主义。以诗论，勃朗宁强，借古代，显示现代气息，赏十九世纪英国诗，要保持距离。\n\n如听说过勃朗宁诗为蓝本的儿童故事《花衣吹笛人》\n\n狄更斯\n查尔斯-狄更斯，早年穷困，父亲还不起债入狱，不幸的生活早就他的文学起点，他从未进过学校，一切自修。父亲出狱后送他到律师事务所工作，他不喜，宁可去当速记员，得以练习速记和文章的剪裁。托尔斯泰说：忧来无方，窗外下雨，坐沙发，吃巧克力，读狄更斯，心情又会好起来，和世界妥协。**如果谁落在忧悒中，不妨试试，沙发，巧克力，狄更斯。**狄更斯的小说结尾，失散和久别的亲友又在一起了，总是夜晚，总是壁炉柴火熊熊燃，总是蜡烛，热茶，大家围着那张不大不小的圆桌，你看我，我看你，往事如烟，人生如梦，昔在，今在，永在。这种英国式的小团圆，比中国式的大团圆有诗意得多，在硬撑时，谁不思念狄更斯结局中的那张不大不小的圆桌？\n女作家\n十九世纪后半叶的英国文学，女作家领头登场，勃朗特三姐妹，她们在约克郡一直写到死，真正做到了生活和艺术的一元。感情上爱情上看不懂《简爱》，是个大老粗，对《少年维特》《简爱》《茶花女》《冰岛渔夫》这几部爱情小说，如果看不懂，不爱看，那是爱情的门外汉门外婆。西方有这个好处，有这样健康的爱情教科书，中国要么道德教训，要么淫书。人生多少事，只能“虽不能至，心向往之”。人的幸福，其实就是到心向往之的地步。\n爱情的内容其实很简单，没有多大内容，为何有的爱情造成这样大的历史景观？因为遇到挫折，不让他们爱，于是道德，智慧出现，才显得伟大。光是爱情，有多少东西？歌德说：高昂的热情，坚持不了两个月。\n儿童文学\n《爱丽丝奇游记》据现在说，是为一个女孩写的，一出版就风行各地。罗伯特-路易斯-史蒂文森的《金银岛》非常有名，尤为少年喜。他的冒险小说一不写爱情，二不写悲剧，英文本领无敌，语言特别有弹性，纯技术地去享受，欣赏他的英文本领。\n哈代\n托马斯-哈代，伦敦国王学院出身，十六岁学建筑，数度得到皇家建筑师学会奖励，二十五后才专事文学，一个大问题，天才如何认识自己，如果哈代的才智用在建筑上，名利双收，前程远大，他不走，一个天才是在他一无所有时，就知道自己的才能在哪方面。\n《苔丝》这种小说，福楼拜，托尔斯泰，看了都会发呆。我想象福楼拜会说：我还是写的粗了，急躁了。如果给陀思妥耶夫斯基看，他会说：你注意到吗？我用的方法也是这样的，他用大调，我用小调。\n他是真正的大家，内心有大慈大悲，行文非常迟缓。哈代，陀氏，是一种方法的两种用处，公平地说，福楼拜，托尔斯泰是耶稣衣服的一部分，重外在；哈代，陀氏，是耶稣心灵的一部分，重内在。\n读书如交友，读万卷书，朋友总有千把个，但刎颈之交，不过十来人。一个人要成熟，成长，成功，其过程应该是不自觉，半自觉，自觉这样一个自然的过程。艺术家贵在自觉，曹雪芹是半自觉的，哈代陀氏是恰如其分的自觉，普鲁斯特，乔伊斯，太过自觉了。哈代可以教大家的，是气度。陀氏可学的，是一种文字的粘度，一看就脱不开了。\n人要从凡人做起，也要学会做观众。起点高，而不退到观众席，老在台上演戏，那糟糕至极。罗兰一上来就起点太高，结果并不长进，在师范大学写信给托尔斯泰，是这点水准，到老得诺贝尔奖，还是这点水准。\n王尔德\n王尔德讲起话来气象很大，如“思想总是朝阴影飞去，太阳是嫉妒艺术的”。他的逆论，容易讨好羡慕智慧的人，但说者常把读者看轻，让人讨厌。他的生活是个失败者，自称天才用在生活中，却结果正好相反。健康，灵活，明智，健美，善于保护自己，留后路，这才是生活中的天才。\n\n什么是艺术家，要将天才用到生活上而不配，去用在艺术上者。要自己会料理自己，思想家，第一不要疯，艺术家，第一不要倒下去，本来站不直，靠艺术才能站好，怎能跌倒，连艺术的面子也会丢。\n\n法国篇\n一个文学家，艺术家如果被人归类为什么主义，那是悲哀的，如果作者是自己标榜的，那一定不是一流。大艺术家一定不是什么主义的，莎士比亚什么主义。要讲笑话时，也不要说：我来讲过笑话。\n雨果\n《巴黎圣母院》《悲惨世界》《九三年》宏大，奇怪，振奋人心，用的是故事，情节，场面，人物是为故事，情节，场面存在的，和陀氏相反，陀的故事情节是为人物存在，当人物说话时，故事情节场面好像都停顿了，不存在了，雨果和陀氏比，陀氏更高超，符合原理。\n雨果是当时的诗王，占了近五十年的王位，小说，戏剧，名声极大，诗名尤大，但大家听说最多还是那些小说，其实他确实擅写诗，心肠柔软，头脑凌冽，很有才。他有伟大的仁慈，对法兰西，对世界，对全人类都是爱，都关怀，面对此种伟人，心里时时尊敬，也是对前辈应有的态度。\n\n\n如下这部分从得到-吴军-阅读与写作50讲中摘录，他单拎出来提醒从李文这个角色理解现在的西方\n\n《九三年》这本书是雨果最后一部小说，它完成于1874年，当时法国刚经历巴黎公社起义。已经72岁高龄的雨果对人性有了极为深刻的思考。因此，他在这本书中所描写的人性相当复杂，不像在《巴黎圣母院》中所描写的善恶美丑分明。\n\n白军统帅朗特纳克侯爵, 蓝军指挥官郭文子爵。郭文和朗特纳克是远房亲戚，但双方都坚持自己的政治主张，要消灭对方。朗特纳克是一个非常冷血而残忍的人，对拥护共和国的人绝不留情。而郭文是一个军事天才，打得白军节节败退。\n朗特纳克等人被包围到一个有平民做人质的城堡里。最后白军终于抵挡不住，放火烧了城堡，朗特纳克带领手下从密道逃跑了，出城堡的一刻，听到一位母亲的呼救声，原来她的三个孩子被困在城堡里了。朗特纳克毅然从暗道返回城堡，救出了那三个孩子，然后就被郭文逮捕了\n在如何处置朗特纳克上郭文和他的老师发生了意见分歧，老师认为革命高于一切，主张处死朗特纳克。郭文却认为大恶人朗特纳克在危急时刻，显示出人性善良的一面，希望饶他不死。最终郭文进入牢中，跟朗特纳克交换了服装，放跑了他，自己替他受死。老师忍痛将郭文处死，然后自己也自杀了。\n\n雨果一生经历了法国的多次革命，可以讲是惯看秋月春风了，他的思想相比年轻时有了巨大的变化。当年他曾经因为反对拿破仑三世称帝而被流放，但是到了晚年，他却开始怀疑暴力行为能否真正解决社会问题。早年他支持法国殖民非洲，到了晚年，他开始谴责法国参与血洗圆明园。在巴黎公社的问题上，雨果则强烈谴责对阵双方的暴行。他在日记里写道：\n\n“简而言之，这个公社是白痴，正如国民议会太残暴一样。两边都荒唐。”\n\n虽然这么评价巴黎公社，但对于晚年的雨果来讲，人性的善是最可贵的，并且他身体力行。在巴黎公社失败后，帮助遭到镇压的公社社员，为他们寻求比利时的政治庇护。雨果最终的理想是建立一个大家能够和平相处的欧洲共和国，不再有战争和暴力，并且呼吁废除死刑。如果他生活在今天一体化的欧洲，大概会感到欣慰很多。\n为了解释朗特纳克身上的矛盾，很多人主张人性会被阶级性或者说团体的利益扭曲，也就是说，朗特纳克原本是有人性的，但是一旦被阶级、民族利益所左右，人性就会被淹没或者掩盖。对于这个问题，雨果没有给出答案，而是启发读者去思考。但是，从雨果在巴黎公社事件前后的所作所为和言论来看，他到后来是厌恶了当时法国大革命的那些政治、民族主义和阶级对立的，认为它们扭曲了人性。\n\n朗特纳克做了善事，有没有资格将功补过？\n\n对于自我赎罪的人，雨果的想法是矛盾的，所以他通过郭文表达出，他希望对这些人网开一面，又通过西穆尔登神父，表达出应该严惩首犯的看法。\n\n郭文是否是个烂好人？\n\n对这个问题雨果也没有给出答案。显然，朗特纳克逃出去后，肯定会继续组织反攻。对敌人的同情，就是对自己人的残忍，这一点郭文是清楚的。但是他依然决定用自己的命去救朗特纳克，这体现出一种骑士精神。如果朗特纳克真的有贵族精神的话，他应该好汉做事好汉当，而不是让郭文顶缸，自己逃走。郭文这样的人物，同样能够影射到今天欧美人身上。和欧美人打了几十年的交道后，发现今天很多欧美人，就是雨果笔下的郭文。\n他们不会站在全局的高度来决定该如何做事情，很容易被一些善行感动，这当然也有人性光辉的一面*。因此，处于矛盾中的雨果，一方面将郭文这个烂好人处死，另一方面讴歌他的善。在全球化的今天，和西方人打交道，就必须理解他们中有一大堆郭文这样的烂好人。你要是不认同他们，就很容易受到围攻。*\n\n为什么小说的结尾正面的角色都死了，反角反而逃脱了？\n\n这就需要换位思考了。其实，虽然雨果整本书都安排郭文处在一个正面角色的地位，但是如果换一个角度来看，可能那就是另一个故事了。朗特纳克为什么要反叛，因为当时雅各宾派在法国各地杀了一万六千人，抓了50万人，所以朗特纳克也不得不反抗。实际上在雨果的书里，不管是保皇党还是共和党，在面对平民时，都是同样冷漠和残忍。大革命里法国的芸芸众生，在他们眼中不过是实现自己政治目的的代价。但是雨果认为：“在革命的绝对真理之上，存在着人道的绝对真理”。因此在他的书中，并没有真正的正派和反派之分。这部作品凝练了雨果一生对人性善恶的思考。\n好的作品，不是给一个完美的答案，而是启发你做更多的思考。\n雨果提出的问题，我们至今绕不过去。比如：前两年对待中东难民的问题、今天各国防疫的措施，都涉及人性的冲突。这时我就会想：“这又回到了雨果当年谈的老问题了。”\n\n大小仲马\n大仲马有黑人血统，文学老板，很会经营事业，有两百个伙计，小说工厂，日夜开工，出两百多种小说，《三剑客》《基督山恩仇记》法国妇孺皆知，就像旧中国的关公，武松，家喻户晓。如果没有通俗小说，人们谈什么，何等无聊。通俗小说最好是三十岁前读，且一口气读完。\n作为一个有心性的男子，人生的快乐无非是有恩报恩，有仇报仇，人生不得此痛快，小说中痛快痛快。\n小仲马是大仲马的私生子，家教严，被关起来，写完再放出来，有《茶花女》等二十多个剧本，论技巧，胜于大仲马，结构严密，人物真切，在法国长期有影响。\n巴尔扎克\n巴尔扎克很怪，以为自己善于经营事业，但诸事皆败，死心写作，靠班费版税，写作还债，一辈子还不清的债，可见他的生活一点不现实，一进入文学，就现实了。他的手稿，据说是全世界最潦草的。\n\n他写作时穿着浴衣，蓬头垢面，一个人在房间里大声说话，和小说中的人对话，吵架。十九世纪墨水干得慢，要用吸墨纸，巴尔扎克用粉吸墨，像爽身粉，胡椒面，把粉洒在稿纸上，叫道，好一场大战。常常忽然失踪，半年一年没消息，忽然一天出现扔一捆手稿在沙发，随之倒下，大叫“给我吃的”。\n\n他的世界中，人，事，物 都是夸张的，就方法论而言，和米开朗基罗的壁画是一样的。一进入他的书，就感到他每个人物的精力。福楼拜一定嫉妒巴尔扎克，一如芬奇嫉妒米开朗基罗。巴尔扎克是动，福楼拜是静，巴尔扎克，米开朗基罗多产，福楼拜，芬奇，是少作的。\n《人间喜剧》总计划未完成，但和《红楼》缺后半部不一样，他的未完成不遗憾。他是整体性的渊博，社会结构，时尚风格，人间百态，什么都懂。法国小说家如果要论到伟大，首推巴尔扎克，他的整个人为文学占有，被作品吸干。难在有一个巴尔扎克。\n福楼拜\n年轻人谈人生，谈世界，其实说的是自己。\n福楼拜初写《圣安东尼的诱惑》不成功，遇到大批评家圣伯夫（Sainte-Beuve），劝他写“黄色新闻”，三思，懂了，写成《包法利夫人》。他是世界文学史上最讲究文法修辞的大宗师，本人是个对世界的绝望者，深知人的劣败，无情揭露，其实是个道德力量特别强，又特别隐晦的人物。他的小说人物都是些不三不四，无可奈何的角色。晚年说：我还有好几桶脏水，要倒到人类头上。他写的都是些他看不起的人，主张不动感情，不表立场。\n司汤达\n《红与黑》的故事，红指军装，黑指教袍，主角于连夹在两者之间，故称“红与黑”\n莫泊桑\n莫泊桑从平凡琐屑中截取片段，构思，布局，别具匠心，文词质朴优美，结局耐人寻味。\n一定要比的话，巴尔扎克，福楼拜，司汤达，更有未来的意义和价值。司汤达的光射的最远，莫泊桑的光比较柔和，以后可能暗淡了，地位始终在的，契科夫还是不及莫泊桑。\n莫泊桑体质好，但消耗得厉害，十年全盛期过完，得了严重的神经官能症，近乎疯狂，四十三岁就逝世了。\n十九世纪后半叶到二十世纪上半叶，是一个时期，可理解为老派短篇小说时期，莫泊桑，契科夫，欧亨利，是代表。二十世纪后半叶，世界性地产生了新的短篇小说，体裁，风格，大异于老派。法国，英国领先，美国随之而起，南美大有后来居上之势，日本也窜上来了，新型的短篇小说，特征是散文化，不老实，重机智，人物和情节不循常规，先读新派，嘴巴刁了，再读老派会觉得笨，啰嗦，把读者当傻瓜。\n德国篇\n划线笔记的都是哲学评价而不是文学评价了\n什么是悲观主义，我觉得是“透”观主义，不要着眼于“悲”，要着眼于“观”，说夸张点，悲观主义是一个勇敢的人的态度。\n所谓东方，中国才是代表，西方最缺的就是中国的东西：含蓄，以弱制胜。这里讲的中国，是指嵇康他们，就像讲俄国，是讲普希金一般。\n叔本华、康德、尼采、瓦格纳不是四个人，而是一个人，这一个人有时悲观，有时快乐，有时认真，有时茫然。尼采有哈姆雷特的一面，也有唐吉坷德的一面，但偏爱他哈姆雷特的一面，很多人是在读他唐吉坷德的一面。\n俄国篇\n俄国文学实发于十九世纪，就一百年，天才纷纷降生，难以解释，期初当然受欧罗巴影响，后来反过来影响欧罗巴，整个世界忙不过来地读俄国文学。\n任何天才免不了模仿期（贝多芬的第一，第二交响乐，就明显受莫扎特，海顿的影响），而天才的特征，又是不顾死活要找自己的风格，“风格”的定义，最近得到的诠释是：敏于受影响，烈于展个性，是谓风格。\n\n与鲁迅同代的，郁达夫学卢梭，郭沫若学歌德，茅盾学左拉，巴金学罗曼罗兰\n\n托尔斯泰十岁时，陀思妥耶夫斯基十七岁，而屠格涅夫二十岁，这三位天才，是一代人。屠格涅夫父亲是没落贵族，母亲性格怪癖，有大庄园，童年时对农奴制度的残暴乖谬，愤懑不平。他自己是哈姆雷特型，因此大力夸奖唐吉坷德型（像哈姆雷特那样深思，像唐吉坷德那样勇敢）\n陀思妥耶夫斯基\n陀思妥耶夫斯基生于医生家庭，从小爱文学，遵父意学工程，毕业后专事写作。小说《穷人》集成普希金，果戈里传统，但他自己的风格全在其中。\n1849年，陀氏被捕，判死刑，在刑场即将枪决的一瞬间，沙皇特赦，改判四年苦役，六年军役。罪名呢？一是朗读别林斯基致果戈里的信，内容是反农奴制度的，二是筹备秘密印刷所，三是参与彼得拉舍夫斯基小组。\n在此之前，陀氏思想进步，流放后，成了唯心主义，敌视革命。陀氏的读者在欧洲，情况有点像佛教，释迦牟尼后来在印度吃不开的，到了中国，佛教兴盛了。欧洲一般的评论，认为陀氏最能表现神秘的斯拉夫民族的灵魂。\n托尔斯泰\n托尔斯泰父母都是古老而有名望的大贵族，十岁前父母双亡，而家道富厚。受法国启蒙运动思想影响，反沙皇专制，退学回家，在自己的领地上尝试改革，结果农民不信他，也不接受（农民怕上小当，革命来了，上大当很起劲），后来赴高加索当下级军官，在克里米亚战争立功，那段经历，为他累积了《战争和和平》的战争场面素材。\n他两度游历欧洲，然而不喜，完全否定欧洲文明，对金钱地位的崇拜引他愤怒，回国后又在自己的庄园办学校，做调解员，当陪审员，维护农民的利益（奇怪的是，他一生只爱农民，只见农民，不见人类），临死前还在想：农民是这样死的？不过从电影上看，俄国农村，农民，确实可爱。\n写完《安娜》为便于孩子上学，托尔斯泰举家迁往莫斯科，调查贫民探访监狱，更加紧哲学，宗教，道德，伦理的研究。可怜这位老先生学不进去，他头脑中早就自有一套，别的思想塞不进去。\n托尔斯泰当时的国际地位非常高，一不高兴，直接写信给皇帝，劈头就说：你忏悔吧。朝廷要办他，宪兵将军说：他的威望太大，俄罗斯监狱容不了他，不敢动，利用最高教会机关宣布托尔斯泰为“邪教徒，叛教者”，开除教籍，这时他快八十岁了。遵照他的遗嘱，葬在故乡庄园，没有十字架，没有墓碑–伟大。\n高尔基\n高尔基善于理解人，善于爱人，最好的作品，是对文学长辈与同代人的回忆。大革命后，高尔基苦苦求请于列宁，放了许多文学家和知识分子，斯大林时代，他保住晚节，没有留下歌功颂德的文字，没有违背良心。\n长篇的力量\n写长篇，要考强大的人格力量，极深厚的功底。哈代，陀氏，曹雪芹，哲学，史学，文学的修养，深刻。德国人的耳朵和头脑特别灵，法国人的眼睛嘴唇特别灵（善美善爱），俄国人，有一颗心，有伟大的道德力量。\n人要靠人爱，此外没有希望。人到教堂，或养猫狗，不过想从猫狗或从神，得到一点爱的感觉。真正的同情，应该来自人，给予人，俄国文学的同情心，特别大。\n中国，和世界不同步，中国不会浪漫，唯美，给唐宋人浪漫，唯美去了。写实倒是有过了，但鲁迅，茅盾，巴金，才不及陀氏，托氏高，鲁迅之为鲁迅，他是受益于俄国文学的影响，写好了短篇小说，他的古典文学修养也一流，但他接受的有限，成就有有限。鲁迅的诗和哲学的底子不够，写不成长篇\n丹麦篇\n小孩是善恶不分的，野蛮的，胡来的，安徒生有这个东西，他用心肠写作\n爱尔兰篇\n爱尔兰民族是世界上最具童心的民族（海涅常写小妖魔，小精灵），心灵诚恳，对超自然的力量，比别族强烈。爱尔兰早期文学都以神怪为渊源，成了传统，古代传说可分为三系，一，神话系，二，红枝系，三，芬尼亚系\n\n神话系，讲诸神冲突，故事纷乱，主角巨大，唯美形象，性格粗鲁轻率，不定型，比较原始。\n红枝系，也成英雄系，故事大约发生在七八世纪，情节优美，故事较有条理，有结构\n芬尼亚系，后于红枝系两百年，主要人物一对父子，他俩是武士，又是诗人，是一群芬尼亚武士的中心。\n\n\n这三系的传奇最初是韵文，后来加进散文\n\n科学技术高明，不等于文明高明，文明应该是指精神道德的高度，文化应该是指心灵智慧的创造。\n叶慈所谓贵族政治，是出于概念，一厢情愿，马克思以为工人阶级是当然的统治阶级，也是一厢情愿，出于概念。\n大思想家最有意思的是他们的短句，而不是他们的体系。明白社会科学不成为其科学，再去观察分析人，倒每有真知灼见。\n中国篇\n何谓昆曲，指以昆山的腔调唱出的戏曲。当时有北曲，南曲，一度南曲伴奏仅用弦索，唱北方的官腔。后改革者出，入笛，笙，琵琶等各种乐器，他活跃于昆山，昆山腔由他倡扬得名。\n二十世纪初期世界文学\n二十世纪的名家自己更不熟悉，课本上摘录的都是老作家，导致笔记都无关文学了，稍有羞愧。\n世界上的书可分两大类，一类宜深读，一类宜浅读。尼采的书宜深读，你浅读，骄傲，自大狂。深读，读出一个自己来。《道德经》若浅读，就会讲谋略，深读，会炼成思想上的内家功夫。\n当十九世纪快结束时，世界各国知识分子都对现实不满，精神苦闷，消沉，悲哀，所谓世纪末的悲哀，中老年知识分子退回内心，守住自我，通称个人主义。年轻知识分子喜欢标新立异，倾向无政府主义，巴金，许杰，在当时都属于这一类。\n到了三四十年代，因为反法西斯，文学又出现转入现实主义的流派，有的入党，有的放弃个人主义。\n\n法西斯不是超人哲学，是反文化的，要毁灭世界。凯撒，拿破仑是英雄，希特勒，墨索里尼是暴徒。对英雄，可以成败论得失，也可以不论成败与得失，对于暴徒无话可说，打倒，消灭，根治。\n\n垮掉的一代\n垮掉的一代，发生在五十年代，二战后出现这一代，名称国际通用。在英国被称为“愤怒的一代”，德国叫做“返回家园的一代”，日本叫”太阳族“，叫垮掉的一代，是在美国。\n其实是大战的后遗症，是人性崩溃的普遍现象，是外向的社会性流氓行为，内向的自我性流氓行为的并发症，既破坏社会，又残害自己。主要是文学青年，对既成的文明深恶痛绝，新的文明又没有，广义上的没有家教，胡乱反抗。\n\n中国，苏联都用唯物史观，阶级分析，批判垮掉的一代，存在公式化的问题\n\n存在主义\n二战前，现代派文学受的是叔本华，尼采，伯格森哲学影响，二战后，悲观气息又起，存在主义应运而生。\n\n存在主义并无新意，是大战后青年人没有心思去细读叔本华，尼采，伯格森的经典，存在主义是前三者思想的通俗化，平民化，抄近路，正好合了战后青年的胃口。\n\n叔本华认为生存意志是万物之源，理性是管不住的，是佛家思想的欧化，且说了一半。他讲的是佛家讲的“人间苦”，另一半，清净，超脱，叔本华不讲，他的哲学，不讲救世这一套。人生无常，欲望不能满足，没有多大新意，古印度，波斯，中国的诗文，早已讲得透彻，而且东方人以自己的方式得到快乐。欲望固然是匹野马，而高超的骑手，驰骋如意，叔本华本人就很长寿。\n\n被引用很多，消极悲观，不可取\n\n尼采早期是叔本华的信徒，后来反对叔本华，悟到叔本华的生命意志不符他的想法–权力意志。由此产生超人哲学，法西斯也利用他的思想做武器，给人洗脑占领心智。尼采是入世的，所以他疯狂，庄子佯狂，但他是出世的，佯狂是为了自保，尼采不知自保。\n叔本华的悲观主义，尼采的超人哲学，是一种高贵的欣赏品，一种美味的滋补品，但存在主义是实用的救济品。\n所以不要宣传悲观主义，可以宣传存在主义，不要忘记存在主义产生的年代，二次大战先后牵涉六十多个国家，世界人口五分之四卷入战火，数以千万计的死者伤者，精神文化的遗产被摧毁。而存在主义同期，中国知识分子如何？抗战刚结束，大家忙于重建家园，我所看到的，没有人思考根本的彻底性的问题，有种的，去延安，没种的，参加国民党所谓的“戡乱”救国，既不去延安，也不去戡乱的，就在时代边缘跑革命的龙套，跑得很起劲，木心当时就是这样。中国当时没有思想家。\n《存在主义是一种人道主义》观点是：人是自由的，没有上帝，没有先验性，没有客观规律，人就是他自己造成的。\n平民性的哲学\n伯格森和佛洛依德两位是平民性的，深得人心，影响广泛。\n佛洛依德对大家都有好处，对心理学，医学，文学，娱乐圈有好处，对警察破案，也有好处。他的性学说，以偏概全，又要解释一切，只这么一说，好，说一切，不好。\n木心说他要是活在二十世纪三十年代，不好，至少驳不倒唯物辩证法，会和鲁迅先生吵，到了八九十年代，世界四十多年和平，冷战结束，共产破产，窗明几净，坐下来说，坐下来写。他的观点是不做大成者，要做先驱者，一入流派，就不足观，所谓时髦，就是上当的意思。唯有把叔本华，尼采，伯格森，佛洛依德这四位近代的思想先驱，反反复复弄懂，才可能有所超越。伯格森的哲学，是为了天才写的，为艺术家写的（为艺术家而思考的哲学家）。\n弗洛伊德\n弗洛伊德1895年，和好友布洛伊尔合出一本书《歇斯底里的研究》，奠定精神分析学的基础。凡伟大者，得到一个奇妙的角度，见人所未见。\n超我有两种，一是良心，一是自我理想。良心，是世世代代道德积累沉淀下来，几乎成本能，自我理想，是我要成为怎样一个人。\n天才的潜意识和性欲特别强，天才的自我超我，也要特别强。\n弗洛伊德有两重错误，一，为说明他的理论，强拉文学名著附会，二，他对两文学主角的想法，是卑污的。一切爱都以性欲为基础，也不对，最高贵的爱，完全不涉性欲。弗洛伊德的艺术是“本能宣泄说”。可是世上小人多，弗洛伊德的学说大为流行，二十世纪实在是个平民恶俗的世纪，谁把伟大神圣的东西拉下去，搞臭，大家就鼓掌。\n荣格生在现代，现代心理学多以他的理论为说，故名气很大。弗洛伊德学说，运用到艺术上来，是有点显著效果。而荣格的学说对艺术家来说就大大不够了\n进化论与乐观主义\n进化论，乐观主义，都是要骗人，研究宇宙，世界，必然涉及衰退，毁灭，必然导致悲观主义。文学家的乐观主义是糊涂，政客的乐观主义是欺骗，商人的乐观主义是既糊涂，又欺骗。\n历史上几次文艺复兴，包括中国的贞观开元，俄国普希金到托尔斯泰，都是自身力量充沛，不存鄙吝之心，自己弄自己一套，不搞打倒别人那一套。\n马克思的问题\n马克思不适合做哲学家，他是个经济学家，一个乐观自信的进化论者。进化论者为什么不说太阳越来越年轻？海水空气变得越来越甜美？有营养？说穿了，尼采的超人也还是进化论。回味韩非子的寓言：郑人买履，宁信度，毋信足。萨特宁可相信马克思主义的这个“度”，不相信存在主义这个“足” ---- 宗教，哲学，都是这一类“度”。\n马克思宣称过去的哲学是解释世界，他的哲学是想改造世界，迷惑多少人。这个世界被解释对了吗 ---- 无产阶级被消费社会溶解了。\n明于析物力，陋于知人心，这是马克思理论的要害。\n科学的发展也出乎马克思预料，他是书斋里的政客。但资本主义是个不好的制度，它是没有最高理想的，没有目标的，永远是以经济衰退/经济复兴这套循环。\n唯二的文学笔记\n卡夫卡\n卡夫卡手法是很好，写的朦胧，但笔法很肯定，再看下去，发现他是个寓言。寓言宜短不宜长，寓言一长，读着读着，读者已经悟了，到后来，大悟没有了，分散了，卡夫卡上了自己的当。\n南美文学\n《百年孤独》那么厚一本书，写马孔多地方一个布恩迪亚家族七代人的遭遇，这种雄心，很可贵。这本书，讲讲可以，去读，太闷热，我吃过墨西哥菜，太多了，吃不下。\n木心的哲学大纲\n一个人有才华，有能力，一时艰难，总会被赏识重用，这是规律；但是世上多有才能不受重用的人，被埋没，被糟蹋了，这是命运。事物有它的规律，可是事物变化，又是命运支配。\n老子思考过，结果是没有结果。他说：“天网恢恢，疏而不漏”。这是规律，他又说:“天地不仁以万物为刍狗”，这是命运，《道德经》是这么二元的，即命运又规律，一会儿解释命运，一会儿解释规律。\n\n其实讲规律，就是乐观主义，讲命运，就是悲观主义。\n\n《道德经》偏重讲规律，但老子是上智，他始终知道，规律背后，有命运在冷笑。\n中国的《易经》，也很可悲，它认为命运是有规律的，索性去研究命运，以为找到命运的规律，便可趋吉避凶，但事情哪有那么便宜。精通《易经》的人，而弄到走投无路，自身不保的，可多。刘基，精通却死于非命。胡兰成，也懂《易经》，做汉奸，后来流亡客死。\n事物的细节是规律性的，事物的整体是命运性的。\n\n木心和亚里士多德抬杠，他说：大自然从不徒劳。我主张，在细节上，是这样，但整体上，大自然整个儿徒劳（细节上讲，动物，植物，都是有目的的）\n\n老庄的空灵是讲实用的空灵，是高层次的“活命哲学”（《易经》也是活命哲学，《诗经》是苦命的悲叹）。\n时代的旁观\n个人遭遇时代，有人手舞足蹈，有人直接介入，我以为，遭遇大事要先退开，退开，可以观察。有的是人投入。\n\n木心说他看鲁迅杂文，痛快；授课的学生们看，快而不痛，到下一代，不痛不快，灯塔在动，高度不高，其间不过一百年。\n\n一些零散金句\n知识分子对快速变化的社会，感到困扰，要反抗，又无力，因此悲观绝望，所谓当时文学艺术上的未来主义，实在是虚无主义，个人主义，他们渴望破坏，渴望新的境界。\n乱世，有天才降生。文艺就灿烂光华，反历史唯物论，乱世激起人的深思，慷慨，激情。\n没有品性上的丰满，知识就是伪装。\n脑子要用，越用越灵，还要多记，越记越精彩。\n\n从中年的意义一书中，也有这种生物学上的观点，脑子要用哦，不然自然就终结你\n\n追求绝对真实的人，不能享受相对真实。意思是说，他什么都享受不到，斯大林昏倒后，没有人进来救他。\n落后地区，不开化地区，一个杰出的人物，都要从精深的学历做起，可是强大的民族，法国，意大利，一个有才华的人不必什么学历，就成功。\n金钱和健康一样，一个健美男子，天天躺在床上，有什么用？有钱，要会用。\n文学与其它艺术\n\n\n文学家，最好是青年时代有点经历，颠颠倒倒，中年晚年平静下来，好好写。可是音乐家，画家，舞蹈家，不必吃这些苦，一个画家不必经历一次大战，也能画出立体派，这一点，文学家吃苦了。\n\n\n文字不要去模仿音乐，文字至多是快跑，慢跑，纵跳，缓步，凝止，音乐是飞翔的，但音乐没有两只脚，停不下来，一停就死。\n\n\n艺术家唯一可靠的是直觉，可是莫扎特的直觉，只有莫扎特有。越是上乘的画，越重直觉。说起来，绘画凭视觉，看一张画的整体感，则全靠直觉。伦勃朗，塞尚，远远望去就是伦勃朗，就是塞尚，这不是直觉吗？以直觉把握美，对后来的艺术家影响莫大。\n\n\n艺术家逃艺术，是世界性的，达芬奇最要逃，《蒙娜丽莎》画了四年，其实逃了四年。\n\n\n曹雪芹聪明，抽掉他的时代，他本能懂得时空必须自由，大观园在南京，北京？他不让你弄清楚，莎士比亚对他的时代，毫不关心，他最杰出的几部作品，都不写他的当代。\n\n\n东西方差异\n西方一切归于神，中国一切归于自然。\n日本人是经济动物，中国人是政治动物，中国的政治经济，有希望，哲学艺术的希望很低，儒家意识形态深深控制着中国人的灵魂，集体潜意识是这样的，总想要找一个依靠，真正的思想家完全独立，超党派，木心说中国没有，他不关心中国哲学，艺术，思想界的争论\n\n但其实毛，邓就很独立\n\n中国\n孔子说，交友交三种：友直友谅友多闻。\n\n不谦虚的说，我觉得自己就属于这种，正直诚信知识广博\n\n中国有人家里不养鸡，不养狗，一遇到事，鸡飞狗跳。\n方言\n北京话，使北京人的日子好过而不好过。上海话，使上海人永远永远不能博大精深。北京话是头头是道，可是凭这种话，日子就能过得好？上海人，是语言快过思想。\n佛教\n禅宗的悟，本也是天才的事，许多人也学禅，硬参，苦，有的人有了疯子，有人做了骗子。\n佛到中国和老庄结合，才大行其道，佛道两家当时通婚，不分的。\n后记\n讲课与聊天究竟不通，自上世纪五十年代木心在上海高桥做过几年中学教师，此后数十年再没教过书，起初几堂课，谈希腊罗马，谈诗经，他可能有些生疏而过于郑重了，时或在解读故事或长句中结巴，绊住，后来他说，头几课讲完，透不过气来，两三课后，他恢复了平素聊天的闲适而松动，越讲到后来，越是收放自如。陈丹青的这段也回应了木心自己的课堂自评。\n或许下册是更个人化的，上册的文学名人们根深蒂固，希望自己有可能多拜读一些穿越时空的经典文学。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文学"]},{"title":"时间去哪了","url":"/%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%8E%BB%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%86.html","content":"\n总体印象\n好忙好忙，现在的人比以前的人忙。可是明明现在不管工作还是娱乐，效率都是越来越高，你咋觉得时间越来越紧？\n点解\n在发达国家，有种有意思的纯理论说法，收入增长比寿命增长来得快，人之所以越来越忙，是因为花钱这件事，你还得花时间去花才行 (时间花完了，钱还没花完)\n\n调研对象基于美国 – 跟50年前相比，人们的平均预期寿命只增加了15%，而收入是那时的三倍。中国这个烈度更大。\n\n\n\n贫富差距使它呈现出更复杂的面目\n\n\n穷忙穷忙 vs 富人才是真忙\n\n\n\n一件东西的价值由其机会成本决定，富人的悠闲机会成本更高\n\n\n时间用于玩，富人也必须玩得更有金钱密度，忙做头发，看展览，听歌剧，看着悠闲，其实很忙\n\n\n电视/视频（时间密集而资金不密集）基本都被穷人看了，富人看电视就没空花钱了。在这方面，爱看电视的特朗普算是个另类\n\n穷人时间价值低，所以看电视时间比富人多，美国人平均每天看电视2小时40分，穷人每天看4小时，考虑到穷富人数比，可能美国的电视基本都被穷人看了，特朗普传言每天看4个小时福克斯电视台，还真是特立独行\n\n\n\n\n\n时间的开销和节省\n每个人的时间罐子都一样大，从幸福感上讲都应该先装鹅卵石，再装细沙。\n开销\n正常人时间分到4大类工作中：工作的事、家庭的事、个人的事、休闲的事\n\n\n工作的事儿：时间用于其它三项的前提，研究省时间的首要目的，就是想把时间省下来用在工作上。工作时间没有朝九晚五（六）那么长，有时候名义在工作，其实是假装在工作。\n\n\n家庭的事儿：耗时大户是家务和照顾孩子。\n\n\n休闲的事儿：第一耗时大户是看电视/刷手机。\n\n\n个人的事儿：第一耗时大户是睡觉，睡觉时间也是有贫富差距的。穷人平均比富人多睡近一个小时，睡觉这档子事，只花时间不花钱。\n\n\n省时：天花板低\n当你把一天到晚做的各种事花了多少时间不厌其详地记下来，一年到头，周而复始，你就会有本时间日记，十几年下来，你可能会发现节省空间没你想象的大。省时间难，难在花时间这事有天然瓶颈，不能有人替你睡觉看电视和吃饭，替你照顾孩子还得有收入和住房条件，要么条件不够要么不愿意。这条路走不太通。\n\n也是基于跟踪上千个美国人十几年的结果\n\n转念：提升质量\n什么事花时间最多，就把什么事的体验做好！\n睡好即躺赢\n用时第一大户是睡觉，所以，你要搞张舒服的床，舒服的枕头，手机莫放床头，发光体都关掉，有噪音的，装上双层隔音玻璃，搞上耳塞。若眼罩有助睡眠，那就整上，还不行，该用安眠药就用，只要能帮你睡得好的事情，需要做你就做。睡觉是最值得的消费，收益最高的投资。睡觉平均占用你人生的1/3，只要睡得好，人生就已躺赢。\n休闲要主动\n用时第二大户是看电视/刷手机，真想看你就看，但得把握住关键的一条: 不要被动要主动\n不能被动的有什么看什么，而是主动的看，只看自己想了解的内容和节目。被动使你沉迷，主动才有掌握，就算时间还是花了那么多，至少体验不同\n家务事不爱尽量甩\n你喜欢做，挺好，否则能外包尽量外包，能自动化尽量自动化，起码把一两件最讨厌的事外包是最佳策略，甩不掉的话也可安排和快乐的事情一起做，如做家务同时听你喜欢的内容。\n照顾孩子要尽心\n几乎很少碰见后悔生育的父母。但统计数据摆在那，平均而言，人们在有孩子后幸福感下降，到孩子成人离家后幸福感才回升。所以对此只有一个办法：若原本将照顾孩子当麻烦，必须学会骗自己，相信它是享受。18年漫漫长路，不骗骗自己怎么过得去？\n时间管理就是痛苦管理\n非自控出错，态度问题\n刷朋友圈，刷微博，是我们管理痛苦的手段，驱动人的不是趋利避害，就是避害。做一切事情都是为了逃避痛苦，干扰嘛，是我们自找的，以便从眼下的痛苦里逃离。\n举例，一天拿起79次手机，醒着的时候每小时5次，每12分钟一次，打断了专注，将已经很有限的时间切割成碎片，其实这已经是高自律的一批人的表现了。有人一天拿起200次，约等于清醒时每4分钟拿起一次，生活是碎的不能再碎了。\n碰到这种情况，你别实践到另一个方向：晚睡对身体不好，所以我一般选择通宵\n达成心流\n\nMental Flow : 人们在专注进行某行为时所表现的心理状态，表现为抗拒中断，高度的兴奋和充实感\n\n创造性的工作离不开这类高质量的状态，艺术类工作如此，研发工作亦然。专注可提升效率，能浇灌幸福感。哪怕是休闲阶段，心不在焉也更不容易体验到快乐。\n行动的专注高效，也受自信状态的影响。自信对完成任务很关键，「多锻炼+帮助他人」 可有助于增强自信，但要注意这里的帮助说的是举手之劳的场景。\n提升心理能量和生活质量，第一步就是要减少拿起手机的次数，第二步可多感受敬意：对大自然的敬畏，对人类创造力和体力的敬意（欣赏画作，体育竞技），感受敬意的目的是识别琐碎摒除杂念，在这些过程中，你会发现很多琐碎的事情都不重要了，更有判断能力\n兼论拖延症\n有种解释是因为对自己有完美主义的要求，超出自己的要求（听了这个是不是好受了很多），所以拖延症在好人身上也很常见。进入现代这会进一步加剧，因为很多目的都是强加的。你认为它是症，不好治不也得治么。\n\n让创造性的任务变成机械式的劳动，例如不喜欢背书，就变成抄书，这可能是唯一能治的硬招 – 勤劳练习+分而治之，说的不好听点勤能补拙，别想一口吃个胖子。还有一种叫做无负担习惯策略，简单到不可能失败的自我管理法则，例如每天1个俯卧撑，每天只读1页书。\n让种子飞一会，就算不做，也要放在心中酝酿，当拖不下去的时候，最高效率解决战斗（有此经历，但仍不推荐），个中滋味当然不好受，不是最高招\n群体组织中立Flag，靠虚荣心压你往前，也不是什么绝招\n不同年龄对时间刻度的认知和规划也是不同的，看开点。要么你人格成熟来应对，毕竟拖延也是上境界的磨炼，要么loser比例在人类社会的比例基本不变，你不过是其中一员而已，看你自我的要求了\n\n拖延并不是你懒，而是你的恐惧。人在面对困难时都会恐惧，面对恐惧都会选择拖延，你所见到的自律，除了对目标的渴望，就是面对任务有焚膏继晷（gui，燃烧蜡烛直到第二天日光出現）的决心，减少即将去做的时间（包括刷牙洗脸吃早饭本质都是在拖延）\n还有一种对付拖延症的高级方法，那就是一天只做一件事。那么你就不会受计划制定后到开始前，那种煎熬的痛苦。多个任务并行做和单个任务逐个做，前者的效率可能是后者的1/4。\n鸟瞰时间的安排\n何为鸟瞰时间，就是拉长尺度来看，从几年或几十年的角度思考人生。从实践落地上：\n\n第一种是写自己的悼词\n第二种是采访敬仰的长者，在采访长者时，有两个问题必须问：\n\n回顾人生，你最自豪的事情是什么？\n回顾人生，你最遗憾的事情是什么？\n\n\n\n从《时间贫困》作者收集弟子的采访汇总看，76%的长者最自豪的事情都说是家庭，与伴侣建立了良好的关系并抚养孩子健康成长。除了家庭张除外，还有少部分的人把坚持走自己的路和职业成就看作最自豪的事情；在最遗憾的事情里，有 38%的人提到没有花足够的时间陪伴家人，18%的人提到没有充分开发自己在学习和工作中的潜能，还有 7%的人提到失败的关系，例如兄弟姐妹关系破裂。\n结合这些采访，不难得出和前面类似的结论，和家人的关系非常重要，影响人生的整体满意度，所以在规划时间时，优先把时间留给陪伴家人是一个优选的策略。\n自由时光并非越长越好\n生活满意度和每天的自由可支配时间有关，在 2~5 个小时间最为宜\n\n上班族：2.5个小时左右的空闲时间\n无业者：4.5小时\n\n自由时刻不可或缺，但并非越长越好。通常高过 5 个小时，无所事事感又会袭上心头，少于 2 个小时会降低人们的幸福感。\n\n同样来自于对美国人的调研，有一定的同感，但不一定完全适用于国人\n\n当代城市人，多数有“空白时间恐惧症” –  难享受无所事事的快乐\n结果的推论\n\n无业者心理状态更差（不被需要），闲得更久，满足感却没有比工作者高多少\n工作者的2.5小时可能处在愉悦的“有人陪伴”状态中，效用顶无业者4个钟\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["效率"]},{"title":"晒神兽=晒自己","url":"/%E6%99%92%E7%A5%9E%E5%85%BD=%E6%99%92%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html","content":"\n四年级分水岭\n孩子小的时候都大差不差，都可爱肉嘟嘟的，睡觉吃饭拉屎玩闹，第一次说话，第一次写字，第一次去上幼儿园哭的鼻子冒泡。这时孩子展现出来的是幼儿最自然，最没社会性的一面，是本能驱动的各种行为和情绪，也是最能引起周围人普遍关注和共鸣的经历。\n小孩主要负责无知和可爱，越无知越可爱，上学了就主要看 KPI 了。四年级以前，蠢萌还算是萌，10 岁以后就不再萌了，长相开始显露出来，再也不是以前可可爱爱的模样，有些甚至开始使得父母难以接受，基因也开始真正表达，不管是长相还是智商，家长都无法自欺欺人了，无法像刚出生那样戴滤镜了。多数家长终于认识到自己的娃，就是个普通小孩。\n晒大龄娃=晒自己\n四年级以上，孩子逐渐褪去了本能驱动的生活模式，转而进入社会竞争，身份上已一定程度脱离幼儿的范畴。这时晒出的是什么状态呢？\n长相暴露了父母的遗传基因，情绪暴露了家庭的亲子氛围，生活暴露了家庭的生活质量，学习更能直观暴露了家庭的教育能力和资源，这个阶段及以后的孩子其实就是家庭的镜子：能从孩子的外貌，穿着，表情，性格，入学的学校，成绩高低，是否学习特长等发现这个家庭的真实状态。\n此时愿意晒的父母其实晒的是自己，又有多少人能给孩子无忧无虑精致殷实的生活呢？显而易见这样的家庭在任何环境和社交圈里都是稀缺的存在（忽略一些优秀到能晒的稀缺家庭，反倒不敢晒），结合要尊重孩子的隐私，所以朋友圈晒大龄神兽的就少了。\n\n搞笑看神兽是如何进化的\n\n幼儿园：为什么\n小学生：凭什么\n初中生：你懂什么\n高中生：你什么也不是\n大学生：你给点钱，给点钱\n毕业后：别管我\n恋爱后：要你管\n生孩后：你来管\n\n平常心看成长\n孩子随着年龄的增长，逐渐消失在父母的朋友圈，不仅有父母的原因，也有孩子的原因。孩子的成长和变化是一辈子的事情，要以平常心看待孩子的成长。\n最好的教育永远是自我教育，父母应该帮助孩子实现自我觉醒和自我教育。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"智能驾驶的中国故事","url":"/%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E9%A9%BE%E9%A9%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B.html","content":"\n经典的中国故事，硅谷诞生酷炫吊炸天的高科技，中国不着急，让美国人搞去。我们的特长是搞钱，不见兔子不撒鹰。\n后发国家最初并不注重创新，因为富裕国家已开发好了必要的技术，且技术可以被授权使用或借来使用。\n激光雷达的人民战争\n激光雷达就是这么一个典型的中国故事：美国创新，中国等着，直到有了商业前景，利用中国供应链 + 场景 + 工程师红利 + 牛马加班，冲进去，摧枯拉朽，高端科技品干成白菜价，几万美元被卷成几千人民币，卷死了欧美品牌。\n\n\n2019-2020年，中国新能源车市场突然爆发，中国力量排山倒海而来，傲慢且缓慢的欧美公司，让你见识一下人民战争的汪洋大海。\n\n\n2019年行业龙头禾赛科技激光雷达平均售价12w人民币，2023年变成了3.2k人民币，还有品牌已经干到千元附近。全球车载激光雷达市占率23年排名前五厂商中，前三都是中国车企，加起来有80%\n\n\n\n人类用视觉可行，一部分是因为人类有一颗超强眼睛+超越所有物种的大脑，另一部分是人类没有其它敏锐的传感器了。\n但从人工智能的大力奇迹演化路径上，纯视觉方案才有足够的优质训练数据。\n\n几类雷达的区别\n\n\n\n类型\n\n作用\n优势\n劣势\n\n\n\n\n超声波雷达\n机械波，需要传播介质\n通过超声波发射装置向外发出超声波，再利用接收器接收反射回来的超声波时间差来测算距离。主要用在倒车、自动泊车上\n成本低\n探测距离短\n\n\n毫米波雷达\n电磁波\n把无线电波（雷达波/电磁波）发射出去，根据接收回波与发送之间的时间差测得目标位置距离数据。主要用于高速巡航车距保持功能。穿透雾、烟、灰尘的能力强，可以在糟糕的天气中探测。\n穿透能力强，不受恶劣天气（雨、雪、雾、霾）影响，能够全天候工作。适用于交通监控、安防，以及作为自动驾驶系统中的补充传感器\n毫米波雷达的探测距离受到频段损耗的直接制约（想要探测的远，就必须使用高频段雷达），也无法感知行人（行人反射波较弱），并且对周边所有障碍物无法进行精准的建模（对高处物体如标识牌，小物体如井盖、锥桶识别效果不佳）\n\n\n激光雷达\n光波也即电磁波\n发射的电磁波是一条直线，主要以光粒子（红外线）发射为主要方法。通过测量激光脉冲的往返时间来确定距离和绘制周围环境的3D点云图\n探测精度非常高，能够实现高精度的定位和环境建模\n受环境影响较大，光束受遮挡后就不能正常使用，因此无法在雨雪雾霾天，沙尘暴等恶劣天气中开启。也不能穿透固体\n\n\n\n端到端的模型趋势\n一种宣发的说法：一个无限接近人类司机的自动驾驶系统约需要 10 亿行代码，以人力编写规则，几乎是不可能完成的任务。但端到端模型几乎能实现几乎无上限的规则。从 24 年 5 月 16 日，零一汽车披露其端到端自动驾驶系统的进展，宣称系统复杂度降低 90%，研发成本下降 80%，标注任务减少 90%[3]。\n\n\n输入：大部分自动驾驶汽车都装载了相机、Lidar、毫米波雷达等各类传感器，采集这些传感器的数据，输入深度学习系统即可。\n输出: 可以直接输出转向角、油门、刹车等控制信号，也可以先输出轨迹再结合不同的车辆动力学模型，将轨迹转为转向角、油门、刹车等控制信号\n\n为了降低训练难度，端到端大模型也需要进行拆分，一般分为两个阶段：\n\n一个阶段解决感知问题（看懂世界-输入为各类 corner case 视频+高清采集数据，通过多模态技术将视觉信号与文本信号对齐输出）\n一个阶段解决认知问题（驾驶决策-输入为感知结果+驾驶行为，这一阶段可通过量产车进行大规模定向采集，训练结果类比于捧哏的生成式模型，做续写作文预测任务）\n\n人类驾驶汽车不仅依赖历史感知结果，还更多依赖对未来的判断，老司机往往对未来几秒的交通环境有非常好的预判\n\n\n\n如此有两个好处：\n\n可先独立训练，再进行联合 finetue，降低训练难度\n不同阶段可采用不同的数据，大幅降低数据成本\n\n自特斯拉的FSD V12（没有程序员写一行代码来识别道路、行人等概念，全部交给了神经网络自己思考。V12的C++代码只有2000行，而V11有30万行）放出来后，自24年国内的厂商开始转向营销端到端（End to End）智驾了，也开始集中资源开始猛攻。\n\nFSD V12一出场, 国家又开始对特斯拉这条鲇鱼网开一面，在备案落地上开始大开绿灯\n\n\n\nFSD的硬件平台由特斯拉自主研发，芯片采用三星14纳米工艺制造，集成了多个CPU、GPU和神经处理单元，算力高达144TOPS。相比较国产车采用较多的高通8155，FSD的硬件平台比8155的GPU和NPU算力和高很多，8155采用7nm制程，一种说法是其GPU算力8T FLOPS，NPU算力4TOPS\n\n\n马斯克发现，当输入超过100w个视频后，基于神经网络的自动驾驶系统才开始变现良好。这里真正的门槛就是算力+数据。随着自动驾驶技术的不断进步，自动驾驶可能会迎来ChatGPT时刻，只有投身到智驾的公司，才能进入到科技企业的定位，从不断向制造业车企靠拢的估值泥沼中摆脱出来。\n\n上车难题\n云端系统为了处理数以百万计的 clips，一般都采用复杂的网络结构，巨大的网络参数（10 亿或更多），再用成千上万张 A100 进行训练，但车端往往只有很低的算力，功耗也不能高，却要求极高的帧率，极低的延迟，这导致只有经过大规模量化剪枝等提效手段后才有可能上车运行。\n这些最难的部分，特斯拉还没公开谈过是如何解决的。\n当前国内智能驾驶走在前面的华为乾崑ADS3.0和小鹏XNGP，应该都还不是全端到端的解决方案，乾崑ADS3.0实现了决策规划的模型化[3]，一方面是监管的原因，一方面车载的算力可能也不支持，但相信一旦有同行趟出路来，以上面的中国优势加产业锚定的举国之力，必然又是迎头赶上，且迎头痛击国际同行，就请时间来见证。\n数据的难题\n\n端到端范式下想要自动驾驶识别一些 corner case的处理方式，需要大量数据进行训练，远超过了原始的分任务策略范式。例如想要自动驾驶识别塑料袋是可以压过去的，需要喂数据（传统的占用网络遇到塑料袋时，往往会认为空间被占用），而原来可以人为设计一个塑料袋可以压过去的驾驶策略。塑料袋，泡沫等软性材质是可以压过去的。交警的手势优先级高于红绿灯，救护车是要避让的，这些都属于人类社会的世界知识，都是人类经过长期学习后获得的，一种拿来主义借力方式是引入大语言模型辅助，相当于副驾坐一位见多识广的陪练告知你 corner case 如何处理，但 LLM 的幻觉在车规级来看还非常严重，仍然风险巨大\n采集到的数据绝大部分驾驶行为都是雷同的，大部分都是直行，能用的数据少得可怜。平衡数据的长尾（有效性）和数据的规模（成本）是个问题。除了从海量 clips 中提取有效的特征，从哪些维度统计数据的分布，都需要大量的工作。\n\n为了解决长尾数据问题，业界也在尝试用 AIGC 技术构造数据\n\n\n数据泛化问题，不同车型传感器配置差异巨大，采集的数据往往难以复用，国内车企普遍车型众多，最后可能采了一堆数据放那里没法使用，看起来是数据资产，实际都是存储成本。\n\n\n数据可能占到端到端自动驾驶开发80%以上的研发成本\n\n纯视觉的问题\n视觉解决方案在远端的障碍物如果跟背景颜色相近的话，容易出现识别误差。如果墙上车上有车辆的图案，会出现误差，如果碰到团雾，会出现误差，这些都会造成安全隐患。国内最喜欢吹的 FSD，特斯拉内部邮件也承认了目前只能算L2级。L2级意味着驾驶员必须时刻准备接管转向、制动或加速以确保安全。\n\n国内安全标准很高，多数是融合解决方案，激光雷达点云配合双目 800w 像素摄像头，再加上 3-5 毫米波雷达，加全车 11 个超声波雷达，能在全维度识别固体、气体障碍物，安全角度上远远超过纯视觉方案。自动驾驶是中国必须走在前面的事情，中国牵头做了全球自动驾驶的测试标准，叫 ISO34505，是中国作为联合国自动驾驶工作组副主席的单位来牵头做的，全球大概 20 多个国家参与，主要是中德，中国企业如东风，上汽，比亚迪，蔚来在里面做了很多工作（蔚来开放了 30w 公里的智驾数据源给工作组）。纯技术的公司是华为和百度参与较多。标准的建立是为全球自动驾驶树立一个通用化的衡量标准，会成为后来各国自动驾驶立法的基础。未来进口和中国出口的车辆都要经过这个非常严苛的测试。\n纯视觉算法，在我们国家的极端测试下，26 台车只有 23%能过，视觉算法比融合激光雷达的整个成功率低 15%左右。中国新能源车的只能驾驶已经远远走在世界前列，中国城市交通复杂程度比美国高 15 倍左右。\n2010 年之前95%国产车都在 10w 块以下，现在国产车为什么做得越来越好，大家都喜欢去选择，老百姓愿意为更好的品质而掏钱。奇瑞的星纪元 ET 在比利时，墨西哥，墨尔本，应政府要求不能低于 75w 人民币的，你不想挣这么多，你必须这样挣，要不然它本土企业卖不了。\n老牌车企的落后\n动力+售后全面超越\n汽车方面速度一直是一个硬指标，打造速度与激情的荷尔蒙设定是豪车的拿手好戏，也是豪华品牌的基础。\n现今豪华车企在三电动技术面前就扛不住了，且绿牌怪瞅着BBA的豪华感累积深厚，直接用科技感即正义的全新美学 + 互联网时代的运营手段把你干碎，从动力硬实力到豪华感服务售后层面的软实力都给你把规则改了，尤其是 智能化吊打 BBA。\n欧洲为啥没落\n**可人家老牌车企这么有钱，就不能也搞电动车? ** 这种问题在传统互联网转移动互联网时期，欧洲的爱立信和诺基亚也同问过。\n从全球领先最终却依然在新技术面前无力回天，要弄懂近20年为什么欧洲出不了超一流科技公司说起：\n\n欧洲太享受和强调劳工权益，且缺少语言和文化的统一，欧洲有27个国家，24种语言，每个国家都有各种严苛法规，扩张阻力太大，风投人才储备技术孵化机构都四分五裂，人才钱都不那么容易流通\n\n中美都是铁板一块，且中美两国人民皆有更强的挣钱意识\n\n\n守和佛导致造出的电动车都平平无奇，续航动力配置还是智能化都被甩在很多中国新能源车后，想赢着实难\n\n今后的格局\n东罗马和西罗马并存，共同卷死世界！\n成长的反思\n端到端之前，基于规则**（rule-based）。这个路线，特别适合中国的工程师红利**，人海战术，堆人处理各种corner case。在裁员和就业难的背景下，HR和猎头针对智驾工程师的挖角，却剑拔弩张，华为，狠角色，大约有7000人规模。另外，小鹏超3000人，比亚迪快速募集 4000 人。正当卷的火热，“端到端”来了，技术路线变了。特斯拉做端到端的团队在200-300人。这路线不堆人，但掀起另一场军备竞赛——数据+算力。2024年底前，马斯克的Dojo 超算中心总算力要提升至 10 万 PFLOPS，中国汽车行业比较领先的，华为的超算中心是3500 PFLOPS，长安1420 PFLOPS，目前是数量级上的差异。但好在以华为为代表的芯片企业正在步步突破半导体的卡脖子问题，NPU 卡自己能生产。\n“卷”，曾经是功大于过，卷出了竞争力，助力了产业升级和突围，但是当中国已经来到这个体量，再卷，就是路径依赖，依赖老方法，一叶障目，就会看不清未来的路。卷到我们的生态底层病了，如今我们想栽创新的苗，但是我们的土壤是病的，这怎么搞？\n\n怎么分配，这就是产业价值观。尤其是大公司，一年下来，核心精力是很有限的。\n\n\n特斯拉，分配给“卖车”这事的核心精力，是有限的，赚钱这事，其实耽误了。按照行业规律，快速多出新车，特斯拉会卖的更好。\n工作重心如老是降本增效，扣硬件成本；卷，勒紧裤腰带奋斗，鞭子抽在自己和伙伴的身上，大家咬牙冲啊。这一套东西，过去是对的，有功的。但是当下，已经是中国突围的障碍。\n\n小业靠自己卷，大业靠伙伴[4]。我们很多企业已经成功到自己当行业带头大哥了，要做的是领导好生态，建立健康的、尊重知识产权的产业价值观，兄弟们都有合理的利润，大家一起帮中国想想，怎么汇集顶级人才。未来比拼的不是人才的数量，而是人才的高度和厚度，高质量发展，新质生产力离不开创新的苗。\n频繁 OTA 在车上不是好事\n有些车主很自豪频繁的 OTA，而我国是禁止频繁的 OTA 的，就是担心车企把一个不成熟的功能放车上拿真实用户去进行采集数据和测试。所以中国的智驾升级没有小版本，大规模更新都是备案推送的。\n参考\n1.易车网 解密端到端背后的数据、算力和AI奇迹 ↩2.CSDN HydraNet—特斯拉自动驾驶强大的人工智能神经网络模型 ↩3.百家号 “端到端”是自动驾驶的曙光吗 ↩4.维科网 “端到端”奇袭：中国内卷到了必须结束的时候 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["行业","AI"]},{"title":"最高级的想象力是不自由的","url":"/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html","content":"\n现代认知科学对人类想象力的研究成果：想象力来源于知识。正是理解了事物之间的因果关系知识后，儿童的想象力才成为可能。\n人能想象自己在天上飞，是因为看到鸟在天上飞。我们比较30年前的科幻电影和现在的，同样描写数百年的未来世界，肯定是现在的更像。古老的科幻电影里，打视频电话，可能演着一只手还拿着听筒。未来世界的飞船控制室布满键盘和指示灯，你不在现实世界给他们发明一个触摸屏，专门负责想象的电影制作人就忘不了键盘。\n举个国人的例子，古代神侠小说暗器几乎没有出现，而现在武打书里本本都有暗器，为什么古人想不到暗器，因为暗器是近代小说家受到手枪的启发想象出来的。\n想象力的等级\n对于科幻小说和童话故事这种想象力，也存在两个等级。\nwhat if\n\n初级想象力就是日常生活中玩&quot;what if&quot;，如老鼠会说话、能驾驶玩具飞机。舒克贝塔的想象力就是这个级别的。整天问“what if”的人，可以写出一大堆童话故事来，这些故事讲的其实不是老鼠，而是披着老鼠外衣的人，讲的是小朋友自己的故事，而小朋友自己的故事，成不了世界名著。这种“what if”想象力是完全自由的，没人会追问这个问题，因为没太多人关心这个故事。\nself-consistent\n要写一个《指环王》或《哈利波特》这样有很多人关心的故事来，所需要的是另一个等级的想象力，一种不自由的想象力。\n写幻想的世界名著，你必须构建一个完全自恰（self-consistent）的想象世界。如阿凡达的潘多拉星为什么有些山悬浮–矿石还有常温超导物质且星球的磁场紊乱，而人类之所以来这个星球就是为了这种物质，星球磁场紊乱，也是该星球的动物有一定感应能力的原因。而磁场紊乱，是因为附近有几颗别的行星，这可以在天空中看到…几件事须能相互解释，是一个完备的逻辑系统。\n《指环王》和《哈利波特》亦是如此，除了世界观自成体系外，这两本书还有一个特点：就是对欧洲神话要有相当深的研究，各种魔法，种族，道具不能胡思乱想，必须符合一定的传统。《西游记》也是这方面的代表。\n最高级的想象力\n最高级的想象力因为是不自由的，难度才大。这种意义上上讲，中国导演拍不出《阿凡达》，缺的不是自由，而是这种不自由的超难脑力和物力。\n自由想象力崇拜背后是顿悟崇拜，这种思想认为一般人终日被自己的知识所束缚，而一旦跳出这个束缚，就能取得重大突破。\n《费曼物理讲义》一小节中叫做《相对论与哲学家》。相对论流行后，哲学家跳出来说“坐标是相对的，这难道不是最自然的哲学要求吗，这我们早就知道了“，可是如果你告诉他们光速在所有坐标系不变，他们就会目瞪口呆。所以，真正的科学家其实比”想象家“更有想象力，一个理论物理学家可能每天都有无数个怪异的想法，真正的困难不是产生怪异的想法，而是产生对的想法！\n如波尔所言，你的理论的疯狂是不争的事实，但令我们意见不一的关键是：它是否疯狂到有正确的可能。（We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enouch to have a chance of being correct—Niels Bohr）\n记录这么多，可能源于我对国外科幻电影哲学自洽的欣赏，细节的认真。加上若干年前阅读《上帝掷骰子吗》的兴奋与对波粒战争的难忘。\n\n几年前最欣赏的科幻电影《机械公敌》，近期最欣赏的群体英雄电影新版《x-man》1、2。把电影的背景设定到历史中去，如x-man第一部的第一战，对于我这种历史爱好者，有很好的代入感。第二部的逆转未来，同样有不错的历史事件设定及穿越时空效应，x-man的正反哲学设定及常人社会的表现，都合乎理解，跟其它超级英雄电影又不一样，希望后面有更佳的表现。\n\n有价值的想象力特质\n有价值的想象力包含三个特质：\n\n建立在既有知识基础上，而非欲望的基础上\n逻辑自洽，简单点就是自身逻辑推演不会矛盾\n经过有训练的技巧，可以表现为作品\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"材料的力学性能指标","url":"/%E6%9D%90%E6%96%99%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD.html","content":"\n硬度\n材料局部抵抗硬物压入其表面（抵抗外物刺入）的能力称为硬度【抗刮擦、切割、磨损、压痕或穿透的能力】。所讲的硬度，是指物质之间的表面划痕，即较硬物质可以在较软的物质的表面上造成划痕。孰硬孰软，就是看谁能在谁身上“画上画”，而不是看谁能打碎谁。打碎问题就是脆性问题。\n\n已知地球上最硬的金属是铬。\n常温条件下，最硬的合金则是钨钢（硬度还是比金刚石差一点点），这种材料通常被用来制作钻头等切削工具。\n地球上天然存在的最硬的物质是金刚石，也是碳的同素异形体（还有石墨、石墨烯等）。\n\n人造材料中，比钻石、铬、钨钢还硬的物质有很多，比如氮化碳、石墨烯、碳炔，这些超硬的物质通常并不天然存在于自然界中。氮化碳和钻石的硬度旗鼓相当。石墨烯，大家都很熟悉，它的硬度比钻石还硬。\n\n脆性\n脆性—表示物质受拉力或冲击时容易破裂破碎的性质【脆性是指材料在外力（如拉伸冲击等）作用下发生断裂，仅发生很小变形的特性】,比如铸铁的脆性大,甚至跌落地上亦会破裂。脆性与硬度有密切关系,硬度高的材料通常脆性亦大。材料抗拉强度低于屈服强度下，材料呈现脆性，这是相对塑性而言，塑性指的是材料发生永久变形的能力，一般用A-延伸率和Z断面收缩率表征。\n强度&amp;塑性\n\n\n强度是指材料可以承受的最大力。\n\n\n塑性是指材料能变形到最大的百分比。\n\n\n例如，一根钢筋最大能承受100Mpa的力，即强度为100Mpa，如果在100Mpa的力下变形20%而断裂，则其塑性为20%。\n有些材料在低温下会变脆，而有些金属材料在长时间使用过程中会产生金属疲劳：易变形和破裂，此时硬度，延展性，韧性就不足，带来航空领域的危险。\n韧性\n韧性=强度+塑性\n韧性是指材料从受力到断裂所吸收的能量，使材料断裂所消耗的能量越多，韧性越好。 能量的消耗意味着对系统外的材料做功，这表明力和位移（变形）的存在。\n\n\n承受应力的能力以强度为特征\n\n\n变形能力以塑性为特征。 所以\n\n\n韧性材料具有良好的塑性。\n弹性\n是物质受外力变形,当外力消除之后又恢复其原有形状的一种性质\n延性\n又称柔软性，是物质受外力永久变形而不碎裂的性质,即可以拉成细丝而不断裂的性质。例如某些金属可抽拉成细线。\n延性最好的是铂。\n展性\n又称可锻性，是物质接受锤锻或滚轧而变形时不致破裂的一种性质，即可以压成片状而不断裂的性质。\n展性最好的是金。\n一些对立相生关系\n硬度-脆性\n硬度比较高的物体，通常韧性比较低，脆性大。比如钻石和玻璃虽然硬度很高，但却很容易碎。\n强度-塑性\n一般来说，一种材料的强度和塑性不能同时满足，它们就像一枚硬币的两面：强度的增加通常会导致塑性的降低。 研究表明，金属材料的塑性变形通常是通过位错滑移来实现的。 在加工硬化过程中，金属发生塑性变形，晶粒滑移，位错缠结，导致晶粒伸长、断裂和纤维化，防止进一步变形和随之而来的失效和断裂。\n材料强度越高，塑性一般较差。常言道，过刚易折。\n强度+硬度\n从工程角度讲，特定材料的强度一般指材料的屈服强度。总体上材料的强度越高，抵抗塑性变形能力越强，硬度越高，在特定条件下存在一定的线性关系。\n参考\n1.瑞士防止检验公司 一篇文章帮你了解材料的力学性能强度硬度韧性脆性 ↩2.化学自习室 脆性与硬度 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["物理"]},{"title":"架构师与SQALE","url":"/%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%88%E4%B8%8ESQALE.html","content":"\nSQALE质量模型\n\nSoftware Quality Assessment based on Lifecycle Expectations 目标管理软件中源代码的质量\n\n如下对于过程质量和结果质量的分类并没有绝对的官方出处，更多是一种直觉的分类\n过程质量\n\nMaintainability\nChangeability\nTestability\nReusability\n\n结果质量\n\nReliability\nEffciency\nSecurity\n\n互联网中架构更喜欢讨论的是结果质量，的确有其挑战，但过程控制是结果控制的非取巧不二法门\n\nSQALE度量内在质量\n整合了ISO-25010标准与代码规范，目标是客观，准确，可复制和自动化的方式为评估软件应用程序的源代码提供支持，为管理技术负债提供一种有效的方法\n\nSonar code quality testing essential,戏称开发人员7宗罪\n\n\n编码规范：名字是最短的咒，各位法师常乱施法\n潜在的Bug：可能在最坏的情况下出问题的代码，及存在安全漏洞的代码\n文档和注释：过少，过多（亦对信息量也是冲销），过时\n重复代码：违反了Don’t Repeat Yourself 原则\n复杂度：结构复杂（如圈复杂度高），难以理解，测试，维护\n测试覆盖率：单元测试，尤其是针对复杂代码的覆盖是否足够\n设计与架构：是否高内聚，低耦合，依赖最少\n\n从可测性，可读性，可理解性，容变性 等代码可维护的质量属性来衡量代码质量，代码质量不好最直接的受害者是开发者或组织本身\n\n同样是代码质量问题，重复代码和注释过多危害肯定不一样，圈复杂度为10和20的方法相比，危害和修改难度差别也大，不能直接用问题的数量来衡量质量，需要更精细合理的量化度量方法，这时你考虑解决问题的人力投入耗时这个维度，根据不同的项目组是可以根据自己的生产力自定义配置（开发语言不同，默认值也不尽相同）\n\nSonarQube，CoderGears，SQURE等商用代码扫描工具都将SQALE作为参照标准，但同时也在做自己的扬弃或简化\n落地好架构的要求\n\n\n方向清晰：具有一定的前瞻性，了解技术的发展方向拥抱应用之；理解业务，最好领先业务半年（因为架构升级-- 朝向解决复杂问题–往往带来业务阵痛），这也要求架构师对业务理解和预判有更高的要求\n\n\n方案细致：除了宏观上层设计，还要关注关键细节，给多种方案选型予以综合评估\n\n\n方法实用：以解决问题为目标，不搞大而空\n\n\n多方利益均衡：康威定律（1967）：软件架构无法超然跳脱组织架构\n\n\n架构合理性目标\n\n软件系统的架构将系统描述为计算机组件与组件之间的交互。包含了组成系统的结构元素及它们的接口，协作的问题决策，不仅注重软件本身的结构和行为，还注重其他特性：易于使用，功能性，性能，弹性，重用，可理解性，经济和技术限制和权衡，以及美学。\n\n以高效、稳定、安全 三大目标衡量架构的合理性。\n\n追求的是面向维护的设计;\nKISS，不仅仅是逻辑简单，只有简单的体系，才能经得起进化\n\n需求角度\n\n优雅可复用地解决当下业务问题\n前瞻设计：能在未来一段时间都优雅可复用满足业务\n\n非需求角度\n\n稳定指标：可用性，包括各种测试覆盖（单元测试、自动化测试、黑百盒、故障注入等），都是为了这个目标\n高效\n\n文档化\n可扩展：软件设计秉承低耦合理念，在合理的地方抽象，方便功能更改，新增和运用技术的迭代\n高复用\n\n\n安全：数据安全\n\n持续架构的5原则\n\n产品思维，而非项目思维来设计架构\n聚焦质量属性，而不仅仅是功能性需求\n在绝对必要的时候再做设计决策\n面向变化来设计架构，将系统分解设计成可独立替代的松耦合模块集合。Reduce the risk of change, Leverage the power of small\n为构建、测试、部署和运营来设计架构\n\n架构和架构师的价值\n\n\n通过保障系统质量属性来降本增效\n\n\n排首第一武器是抽象能力，接着还有分层，分治和演化\n\n《模型思考者》中提及模型是对现实世界问题的抽象，模型思考着需针对问题，看穿客观事务本质，选取或构建合适模型，推导出问题最优解\n架构师的职责和模型思考者类似，定义问题并识别方向，创建/选择/调整架构，找到最合适的方法，推进团队解决问题\n\n\n\n架构质量的优劣\n\n取决于系统在应对变化时所需投入的研发成本，隔离变化\n用Martin Fowler的话来说，重要任务之一：消除不可逆的决策\n\n\n\n高质量低成本直观看违背常理，但高质量=低成本\n通过业内在增量功能迭代和研发投入时间的增长曲线分析上发现，基于低质量的架构，在数周内就显现出研发效率的降低，而高质量架构要好得多\n\n\n程序员最难任务排位\npie showData\n    title 程序员最难任务\n    \"命名\" : 49\n    \"解释我的工作\" : 15\n    \"工作量评估\" : 10\n    \"团队协作\" : 8\n    \"接手别人的代码\" : 8\n    \"实现不认可的功能\" : 3\n    \"写文档\" : 2\n    \"写测试\" : 2\n    \"设计方案\" : 2\n着眼长期成本\n架构规范的价值是降低长期成本，涉及组织惯例和公共建设，文档，流程，文化\n如何消解程序员的头疼问题？\n\n\n命名: 下定义是一种概念能力，抽象能力的磨炼，锻炼存在平时之中。如小说《阴阳师》中所言，名字是最短的咒。\n\n\n工作量评估：WBS，掌握工具\n\n\n别人的代码：代码规范\n\n\n写文档：常规环节，代码即文档\n\n\n不同周期的发力方向\n短期\n代码开发，联调测试，部署\n长期\n页面变更，业务流程/规则变更，基础实施变更，依赖包升级，etc\n榜样\n\nAmazon的领域API标准化\n\n\n所有团队的模块都要通过Service Interface方式将其数据和功能开放出来\n团队间程序模块的信息通信，都需要通过这些接口\n除开Service Interface的通信形式一概不允许：不能直接链结别的程序（如外部团队的动态库），不能直接读取其它团队的数据库，不能使用共享内存模式，不能使用别人模块的后门\n所有的Service Interface，毫无例外，都必须从骨到皮设计成能对外开放的。即：团队必须做好规划，以便未来把接口开放给全世界的程序员\n不这样做的人会被炒鱿鱼！\n\n如此这般的的好处之一是：领域限界清晰，没有意外，你的团队控制着源代码和数据，在单一的限界上下文中工作\n\n工程师文化\n质量\n\n它是一个高度概括的词汇，是一个结果。质量是工程师的reputation，不仅是在职场。\n换个土话，可以解释为“靠谱”\n\n事情做成离不开靠谱的人，聪明的人只能聊聊天\n\n\n工程师一直以做事为己任，视出品为生命，是我们对成事的渴望，对自己孜孜向上的推进\n\n务实\n\n不消多说，工程师一直在解决问题的路上，眉眼为问题而动，养成的自然是以解决问题为目标，不搞假大空的作风\n但在评估需求时，存在普遍乐观主义的倾向。本质是因为需求信息不够详尽。\n\n慢思考模式是惰性的，通过经验可训练强化自己的评估模式\n\n\n\n效率\n\n效率就是生命，减少中断进入心流状态，充分将人脑效能提速起来。\n抓重点：做好数据和用户分析\n自动化：更多的自动化，更少的多人协作\n降成本：去除支持性工作，提高组件质量和重用，持续改善组织文化\n良好的分层分治设计，也是我们应对效率怪兽的解药\n\n革新\n\n在小革新的积累下，也在涌动大的革新，以解决结构性问题/难题，旧的世界的打破需要技术突破，技术突破有些时候是跳跃性的，但离不开原来渐近式的铺垫\n\n\n跳跃性解决结构性难题\n渐进性解决日常问题\n\n事务性动作 vs 革新成长 存在对时间的争夺，故在效率方面下功夫无可回避！\n角色划分\n现在架构师划分的角色也很细，顾名思义，数据架构师，（运维）云架构师，安全架构师这些都比较容易让人好理解其定位。还有几个不那么容易概念区分的架构师角色，特在此记录说明一下。\n\n企业架构师：企业架构师的职责包括协助创建和执行信息技术架构路线图，创建支持业务目标的企业基础设施。\n\n分析技术架构领域的当前趋势并提供建议\n评估应用程序是否符合企业标准和业务标准\n确定与组织变更相关的架构的生存能力\n就治理模型和框架等领域的最佳实践对技术人员进行培训\n\n\n业务架构师（解决方案架构师）：专门评估业务需求，并将它们转换为解决方案、产品或服务。通常花费大部分时间来协调正在进行的活动，从概念定义到需求的分析和实现，最后转移到IT操作。\n\n在设计和构建阶段管理应用程序开发团队\n为初级员工提供培训和指导\n与应用程序开发人员协作以实现业务目标\n\n\n领域架构师–应用架构师：领域架构师是在其专业领域具有深入知识的专家。数据架构师，安全架构师也属于领域架构师\n\n何为工作能力？\n\n不局限于架构师角色\n\n工作能力即为 将大目标分解为可执行的小任务的能力，任务是实现结果的过程。\n知无涯和能力发展\n\n各种岗位都是要不断构建自己的知识体系，将经验沉淀总结为方法，这方面贯穿着宏观思维能力，抽象思维能力和钻研能力\n\n\n宏观思维就是考虑整体，站在更高层次上看问题，需要有意的跳出细节看整体，找到关键重点再深入细节\n软件项目永远不变的就是变化，抽象（简化、关注要素、隐藏细节）是应对变化的主要手段，要求看得更远，将现有和未来可能的业务场景综合起来进行分析，做出相对稳定的抽象，预留架构的扩展性\n钻研能力要求具备深入细节的能力，攻坚克难\n\n\n专业的方向可以有选择性，并不是所有技术都要深入到细节层面\n\n\n用源码学习很多时候并不是一个特别高效的学习过程，API学习就是一种挺高效的途径\nAWS的API，J2EE的API，这些吵架吵出来的API设计很漂亮，通过API学习你可以把它的领域想透了，不信你自己写一个，一比较很容易是这也忘了（不对），那个也忘了（不对）\n\n\n还有一个误区\n\n都喜欢钻研计算机科学知识，唯“底层”为王，深入钻研细节要权衡好ROI，对于业务部门技术人员而言，在软件设计方法和软件工程的专业知识实际上也是应花力气钻研的，这些基础知识同样是该领域的底层\n技术债（TechnicalDebts）\n概念最早出现在1992年，本义指开发人员为加速软件开发，在应采用最佳方案时做了妥协，改用短期能加速开发的方案，从而在未来给自己带来额外开发负担。\n本金 : 定义为修复代码质量所需消耗的人力资源估值\n\n例如针对java而言，修复一个圈复杂度为15的方法需一个开发人员15分钟的时间\n\n通常借钱是有利息的，技术债也一样，存在利滚利的情况。有些违规项马上修复要10分钟，若放一段时间后，也许就需要20分钟甚至更多时间来修复（代码细节的知识随时间流逝，及破窗效应造成代码问题加速恶化等原因），因为利息的存在，不及时偿还的话，会在未来呈现非线性增长，造成始料不及的损失\n负债率：偿还债务所需耗费的资源，除以重写所有代码预估耗费的资源。在扫描工具的实现中，分母是通过代码量和开发生产力水平计算得出，其中生产力是一个配置项。\n技术债的排序\n技术债务对每个问题设置了规则等级，面对那么多技术债务，如何按优先级排序你的工作呢？\n且看技术债务金字塔\n\nReusability\nPortability\nMaintainability（非结构化语句goto，switch外的break，文件注释率&lt;35%，循环语句中使用continue，文件行数&gt;1000, 不一致的缩进，变量大小写风格）\nSecurity\nEffciency（残留吴用的变量，类继承太深&gt;7）\nChangeability（滥用public，类复杂性&gt;100）\nReliability（未初始化变量使用，条件循环语句中使用赋值符号）\nTestability（方法参数列表庞大&gt;6, 需独立测试路径过多 &gt; 11）\n\n这个金字塔仅是一个比喻，自底向上的看，每个特性建立在它下面的基础上，可测试性是底部，因为它是最重要的，首先要确保你的应用程序是可测试的，接着确保它的可靠性，可变性，有效性等等\n\n\nmaintainability及以上，更偏长期债务（通常在转移维护团队时才得以察觉显现）\n\n\n二者间可视作中期债务\n\n\nReliability及以下，更偏短期债务\n\n\nSecurity和Reliability属于关键债务，按比喻来说是债务利息中最高的部分，多见逻辑错误或异常管理不善等问题，直接影响业务，而其它问题有时并不会直接影响业务。\n\n\n技术债规避举例\n某组织挑拣的4条规则\n\nSource files should not have any duplicated blocks\nClasses should not becoupled to too many other classes\nMethods should not be too complex\nControl flow statements if for while switch and try should not be nested too deeply\n\n个人看法这几条规则，有三条都跟复杂度有关，抓本质的能力有待提升\n代码是资产也是债务\n\nJoshua Bloch(布洛赫)：java.math.assertions、 Collections Framework、《Effective Java》作者\n\nJava架构师 Joshua Bloch曾说：随着年龄增长，其意识到 编程不仅仅是让程序运行而已，它是创造一个利于理解，可维护的，高效的作品。一般来说，干净整洁的代码即使运行不快，也可以很容易让它变快。让正确的程序更快，要比让快速的程序正确容易得多。\n\n最小化人们理解它所需要的时间是比最小化代码行数更好的度量方法\n别为了获得一丁点 ”性能“ 就牺牲掉整洁，一流的编译器优化通常会自动把短代码转换成内联函数，在现代计算机上，函数调用的代价接近于0\n霰弹式修改，是个坏味道\n\n圈复杂度\n\n构造软件有两种方法：一种是简单，明显地没有缺陷，另一种是使其复杂，却没有明显的缺陷。 — 图灵奖得主 tony hoare(霍尔)\n\n有研究表明，圈复杂度大于10的方法存在很大的出错风险\n10以下圈复杂度的方法，有bug修复不成功率在5%，20~30的复杂度，不成功率就来到了20%，大于50，修复不成功率来到40%，接近100的复杂度，有60%的几率出现修复失败\n应该将复杂的计算分解成具有内聚性的步骤，令大尺度的运算更具可读性\n性能 != 效率\n效率意味着最短路径，性能意味着以跑代走。就算你用博尔特的速度，虽然高性能，但可能没选择最优路径\n影响程序运行时间的一个重要原因是内存中的数据的布局和结构，布局不优良，会造成要花费很多时间获取数据，同时会造成指令冗余\n金玉良言\n最好维护的代码就是没有代码，好的程序员代码产量是负的，他们通过减少代码来增加功能\n回顾收尾\n好的代码就像好的笑话一样，它不需要解释（Good code is like a good joke：it needs no explanation）。\n有编码经验的人对代码有一定的鉴赏力，能凭感觉给出代码好坏的主观评价，这方面的反例就是意大利面条式代码（spaghetti [ spəˈgeti ] code）\n\n意面式代码：非结构化和难以维护的源代码的代称，有一个复杂和纠结的控制结构，程序流在概念上有如意大利面，扭曲和纠结。\n国内圈有更震撼的翻译：屎山代码\n\n意面/屎山代码产生的原因\n由于程序员在开发过程中缺乏良好的设计和规划：从而导致逻辑混乱、耦合度高、难以理解和修改，给后续开发人员带来了极大的成本。\n不仅局限于代码难读，环境差异，废弃的代码，过时/临时的逻辑，依赖和组件引入及锁片，都在助力屎山代码的形成。\n公认的幽默标准 ： 每分钟爆粗数量，强调了代码的可读易懂有多么感人和基础\n\n重构~精进\n\nRefactor，Be Better\n\n当已有代码存在问题时，程序员应主动进行重构，优化代码结构和逻辑（对一个东西最好的批评，是做出新东西替代它）\n精神误区\n得过且过、无能为力、推到重来\n\n面对现实的挑战和过去的包袱，不能站出来的成不了架构师，没有勇气承担的成不了架构师\n\n动手解决\n\n\n理解不干净背后的东西，勇于承担、拒绝破窗、养成日常清洁（边打扫边生活）的习惯\n\n\n和产品达成共识，解决“大石头”的同时干掉“小石头”，慢即是快\n\n\n要干净的不仅仅是代码，善于用减法的思路去对待产品\n\n\n使用工具，提升效率。君子性非异也，善假于物也。\n\n\n代码助手\n常规项目程序员时间分解\npie showData\n    title 常规迭代程序员时间开销\n    \"理解需求\" : 8.4\n    \"理解整体架构设计并做详细设计\" : 5.8\n    \"画图/写文档\" : 6.8\n    \"理解关联代码\" : 11.2\n    \"参考内部规范和已有基建\" : 7.7\n    \"查找类似代码或及技术方案\" : 6.4\n    \"修改/新增代码\" : 9.8\n    \"运行调试\" : 7.2\n    \"写单元测试\" : 8.7\n    \"功能联调测试\" : 6.5\n    \"准备发布物料\" : 3.1\n    \"协作/被动沟通\" : 11.4\n    \"其它/摸鱼\":7\n\n编码准备+编码调试=查找方案+编码+调试+单测=32.1%\n\n开发阶段约占版本周期中的60%，测试约占20%，产品阶段10%，架构师设计5%，运维5%。项目经理贯穿消耗10%。在研发阶段，代码大模型能着力的部分占32.1%，再加成项目周期的60%占比，对整体项目的提升上限不超过20%=32.1%*60%=19.26%\nLLM 改变软件开发模式，软件工程进入 3.0 时代\n\n\n\n\n人月神话\n软件工程 1.01968年 NATO 会议，软件工程学科诞生\n软件工程 2.02001年 Snowbird 会议，《敏捷软件开发宣言》发布\n软件工程3.02023年 chatGPT 发布\n\n\n\n\n开发模式\n提升协同效率\n1970 瀑布模式\n2001敏捷开发2009 DevOps2015 MLOps\n延续\n\n\n架构模式\n分解复杂度\n1970 年半单体1990年模块化\n1998 服务化2012 微服务化2014 ServerLess\n延续CloundNative --&gt; AI Native\n\n\n重大挑战举例\n软件规模\n几十万行\n百万 --&gt; 千万 --&gt; 亿级\n精英与模型协同作业：代码责任田 10 万行 $\\rightarrow$ 50 万行软件生命周期成本：开发 vs 维护 从 3:7 $\\rightarrow$  5:5\n\n\n\nAI擅长的事情\n交给AI擅长的事情，接受AI的不完美（放大优势，规避缺点，心态开放，接受短板）\n\n全库检索与总结\n代码解释与解读\n局部重构与改写\n不熟悉的编程语言\n算法与通用逻辑\n\nAI对软件工程师的影响\n真正的价值创造来自于弥补其它人决策盲区，你之所以被认为是架构师，是因为你能看到别人看不到的东西。\n在整个软件开发过程中，越是偏向个体研发的能力，受到的冲击就越大。换句话说，那些依赖与单兵作战的工作，更容易被自动化工具和智能系统所取代。越往下，即越偏向于对整个开发场景的控制和管理，这些工作受到的冲击相对较小。\n架构活动中最大的成本是人力和时间，这两个成本在大模型世代都会发生巨大变化\n---\nconfig:\n  theme: base\n  themeVariables:\n    radar:\n    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性\n\n跨域架构师\n\n分工选型：前后端、业务/中台，开源//自建\n长期思考：领域扩展、规模跨度、技术壁垒\n外部环境：不确定性、竞争格局、监管合规\n\nLLM效能提升的正确姿势\n\n广泛提升个体效能，让没有很好prompt能力的人也能受益，并内置到企业现有开发环境和工具链中，成为开发基础设施有机组成部分\n嵌入于研发全生命周期，CI/CD流程，项目管理工具等；优化上下游知识共享。\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["架构","软件工程","研发质效"]},{"title":"母亲回忆录--上山下乡","url":"/%E6%AF%8D%E4%BA%B2%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95--%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%8B%E4%B9%A1.html","content":"\n上山下乡\n毛主席的最新指示发表了：“要把自己初中，高中，大学毕业的子女送到乡下去，接受贫下中农的再教育，很有必要。”全国各地的这些学生都有了归处，那就是“上山下乡”，到最艰苦的地方去。\n1968年不知几月份，人民日报刊登了一篇文章，标题是：“我们也有两只手，不在城里吃闲饭”。街道居委会通知开会学习了，让这些没有正当职业的居民，动员报名，不报名者，也不让你做工，全家人的生活就成了问题，逼你走上山下乡这条路。\n\n所以1968年的冬天，我们全家六口人都下放到老塆（管塘大队，管塘生产队）。大姐1966年首批下乡青年下放的，还有我哥嫂一家也要下放，当时我嫂快怀孕快生了，就说等生了再去就没走。我们家刚到老塆，第二天就下起了鹅毛大雪，那年雪下的真大呀，直接封门，不下乡也被饿死，一场大雪才算结束了整个下放户的运动，隔壁的罗传模农村的来车接，板车走到西街头，雪下的睁不开眼，路都被下得看不清，全是一片白，不敢往前走，又转回头，拉回来了。这场雪下得没有走的再也不来催啦，我哥嫂就不用再操心下放了。那年冬天她生下了大女儿永玲，生活的来源，就靠那个下放的安置费，后来从我份那里扣除。\n挣工分\n从城镇下放到农村，干农活挣工分，我也不上学了，父亲弱劳力4.5分，二姐女头等分7分，我二等分6.5分（那年我14岁了），国友9岁，腊云还不到5岁，冬闲二姐一人上班，到了春天，就有活干了，挑粪，担泥塘。男劳力，犁田，耙地，播种。到了夏天，不论白天和黑夜，除了回家吃饭外，大部分的时间就在田间，脸朝泥土背朝天。那时农村都没有表，天不亮就看犁弯星，白天看太阳，阴天就估谱。插秧和秋收，这两季节最忙，夜晚还休息不好，蚊子，臭虱子睡着了给你咬醒，二姐咬醒了坐在床上哭，蛮老三在南边公路段上班，说他那里供销社卖的有蚊帐，十几元一床，我家买了两床，臭虱子怎么也搞不绝，最后想个办法，用电灯的柴油往床缝隙里倒，臭虱子怕柴油总算给它消灭了。\n冬腊月若是闲下来，我要去给老大推车，我嫂因为要照护孩子，老大拉车没有驴子（很多拉车的都用驴帮忙）。\n有学不能上\n我们大队初中班就一个班，班里只有4个女生，老师很想让我到他那里上学，记得有一次，我挑着稻谷去大队打米，被老师看见后，赶快跑到我面前，劝我来上学，在他们眼里，像我这大的年龄，不上学有点可惜，一生有干不完的活，我跟他讲：“谢谢你的好意，我也很想上，只因我家没有劳动力，再上学生产队里人会有意见的”，老师感到很失望的离开了。\n虽然我只上了六年学，在那个年代基本文化还算够用，不论是读书还是看报，还是算账都难不倒我，秋收分粮食，会计算账总会叫我帮忙，那时算账都是用珠算，没有计算器，加减乘，除法不用，基本都是用乘法，农村有些妇女说：“老嫌，你要不是肚里有些黑墨水，怎么会坐在这里呢？”，我反驳说道：“我也不是干活干不动，你以为我想坐在这里吗？”，她们就哑口无言啦。\n干了几年农活，不论是犁田耙地，栽秧，割稻子，砍柴，除草，打草绕子，捆稻草，样样都会，很多妇女不会的，我都会，我的特点就是接受事物快，用心，好学。\n与机遇擦身而过\n五七干校\n我们塆离尤店很近，翻过大坝不远就到了，那里有个工程兵五七干校，经常会演露天电影，无论再累，一听说有露天电影，年青的小伙对队长说：“今天夜晚不要加班了，我们到部队看电影去”，队长有时也会采纳，因为他家也有孩子嘛，五七干校那里还有个小卖部，我们也经常去那里买东西，一来二往都熟悉了，跟塆的伙伴一块，往那里一站，干校的人就爱问我们是哪个塆的，叫什么，吓得我总是站在别人后面，伙伴嘴快说我是她塆下放的。\n去北京的机会\n我小时候很胆小，有一次我去干校买东西，被一位老首长看见了，他喊住我，让我明天早晨八点给他买两只老母鸡送来，他要回北京任职。第二天清晨我在自家鸡圈里逮了两只，怕去晚了，我连早饭没吃就送来了，给我钱，我没要，我要走，他不让走，问我去过信阳没有，我答：“没有”。他说坐这车一块去信阳玩玩，完了再坐这车一块回去。我没吱声，跟她一块上了吉普车，以前从没坐过车，还以为很舒服，谁知道心里七上八下难受死了，想吐，憋着，直到车开到信阳部队招待所，一停车，我赶快下来跑到一边去吐，只因早晨没吃饭也没喝水，只吐了一点黄胆水出来，歇了一会又上车，到地区招待所吃中午饭，午餐很丰盛，李首长把好吃的都往我碗里夹，让我多吃点。吃完饭，休息一会，李首长问我：”想去当兵吗，想去跟我们一块走吧，我们部队女兵就要你这大年纪的“，见我不吱声，他又接着说：”上周塆有位下乡知青，老来跟我讲要去当兵，她已经二十多岁了，部队女兵只要十来岁的，她已经超龄了，她有个弟弟脚是个六趾，可以当兵他又不去“。我心里想没说，你说的这俩人我都认识，我们以前是门对门的邻居，她叫周成秀，弟弟叫周成安，姐弟俩下放到上周塆，太熟悉啦。他又说：”你怎么不愿意去当兵呢？“，见我不吱声，又说：”不想当兵也行，我一封信就可以叫你进工厂“。我还是不搭腔，我在想：”我怎么不想去当兵呢？有这么好的机会这可是做梦也不敢想的“，我有我的苦衷，我怕真去了，塆上的人知道了，传到大队，他们去搞外调，拿着介绍信找到部队，说我父亲是个份子，那时又讲政治，再给你搞回来，还不够丢人的，这就是我不敢答应的理由。\n上火车的时间快到了，吉普车又开到了火车站，他让我上了火车看看卧铺，他讲：”夜晚我就睡在这里，明天就到了北京”，我在火车上还看到了一个外国女人，快下火车前，他还跟我说：“跟我们一块走吧”，真实情况我也不敢讲，不知从何说起，没办法，他只好交待送他走来的随从兵给我安全的送回家–尤店工程兵五七干校，到了干校，下了车我回到家，天已经黑了。我给家里人讲，干校首长再三让我跟他一块走，去北京当兵，我没敢答应，父母没吱声，大姐遗憾地对我说：“你真傻，要是我就去，在哪里找这么好的机会”。\n谨小慎微左右命运\n你以为我想去吗，到时候大队干部再去给你搞回来，说父亲是个份子，到那时候还不够丢人的，北周塆和喻老四下放一个队的周姓人家，孩子还没我大，不知怎么和队里发生口角，随口说了一句：“骑驴看唱本，走着瞧”。他的意思是，农村能待就待，不好就回城，可是他们把这句话的意思想歪了，把他扣了一个上纲上线的帽子，说他是想变天，因为他成分是地主，一个小孩弄到各生产队斗争，说是想翻天变账，想回到解放前，欺压百姓，作威作福。\n解放前什么样他也没见过，这不是胡说吗？当年他们全家都搬回了城，可怜那孩子，回城没工作，拉起了板车也不愿在那里受气，这就是我不敢去北京的原因。（小周后来转知青，分在供销社）\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["回忆录"]},{"title":"母亲回忆录--童年","url":"/%E6%AF%8D%E4%BA%B2%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95--%E7%AB%A5%E5%B9%B4.html","content":"\n康家大院\n我出身在河南罗山的一个小县城里，那时的小县城以十字街为中心，东到电影院，西到粮食局，南到跃进门，北到县一中，以这往外都属于农村（现叫郊区）\n我家住在西街，上有父母亲，兄弟姐妹六人。老大是个哥，1944年出生，起名叫世有，老二大姐，1948年出生起名叫康毛，老三三姐，1952年出身，起名二毛，我排行老四，1954年出生，又是个女孩，起名叫嫌毛，把给别人，又没人要，肯定是嫌弃哟，老五是个弟弟，1959年出生，起名叫国有，那时正赶上过粮食关，几家的粮食供应他一人，精心的喂养，才算活了下来。那时很多人都被饿死了。1963年腊月，我又来了个老妹，起名叫够毛，上户口时，那人可能文化浅，写不到那个字，写成了个康狗毛，后来邻居老奶奶说：“叫什么够毛，我孙女冬月出生叫冬云，你这是腊月出生的就叫腊云吧”。\n一家八口人，就靠我父亲做杂货生意维持生活，母亲是家庭妇女，清理家务很有一套，父母都不识字，在这种困难情况下，还让我们每个孩子上学，不能当新社会的文盲，读个高小（小学）毕业，大哥，大姐，都下学做临工来补贴家庭生活，每个孩子都要做些力所能及的活（二姐除外），比如：上街到处窜着捡烟头，打石子，捡庄稼，挑土方等等，只要能换来钱，什么活都做，童年真是太苦了，不是我们一家街邻的孩子都是这样。\n\n初入学\n1961年那年我7岁，去县直幼儿园报名上学，妈妈领着我和二姐，因为二姐数数不张嘴，费了很长时间才数了五十个数，老师一生气，喊下一位，临到我一口气数了一百多，颜色都认全，问什么都能对答如流，抬榜出来了，我被录取了，没有二姐的名。妈妈说：“二姐大些，让她上“，所以我俩就换了个学名，那时都呼小名，没人喊大名，换个人谁也不知道。\n1962年，我和街邻同伴一起到西街完小报名，上一年级，那年我八岁，我很聪明，老师教什么，一教就会，拼音，认字，造句不在话下，考试语文总是满分，数学几乎也是一样，一年级当个副班长，二年级任学习委员，学习委员负责收作业，收完之后送到办公室，有一次送作业到办公室，几个老师正在谈论我，有个老师问：”这就是康模珍呀！“，不知老师为什么在说我，放下作业本我就走了，记得有一次，西完学校的美术老师调到电影院画漫画，我和街邻的同伴一块去看解放电影，什么叫解放电影？就是电影快结束了，不守门了，那天正赶上施老师守门，我以为他不认识我，我往前一站，他就叫我的名字，康模珍进去，那时的人老实，给我吓得赶快往回跑，从那以后，我再也不去看解放电影啦。\n辛苦童年\n1963年底，我哥结婚了，因为家里人多，后来就分家，住在后院三间屋里，那时城里人都没有正当职业，不是当木匠，就是学泥瓦匠，再不就是拉板车，或做临工，不知工作去哪里找，也从没人开后门，也找不到门，我除了上学外，还得给我哥推车子，因为大哥小时候身体差，干拉车活有些吃力，父亲怕他拉不动，总是安排我帮她推车，因为我好叫嘛。记得又一次，天还不亮，我妈就把我叫起床说：”你哥到子路卖枣子，路上坎多怕拉不上去，你去给他推车去，可怜一个十岁多一点的孩子，四十八里路哇，别说还推车，就是跟在车后面跑也很够呛，累得我心里直犯嘀咕，还有多远，怎么还没到，好不容易到了子路，集镇上已经上了很多人，找一个地方放好，他卖，称秤，我负责看着不让别人没下钱的就把枣子拿走了。因为我办事尽责，我二姐从来就不干这活，养成了爱干活的习惯，还经常乐意帮助别人，不论在什么地方，或者是放学的路上，看到一个拉车人很吃力，我赶忙跑上去推上一把。拉车人猛感轻松，回头一望是个小孩帮忙，高兴的说声：“谢谢啦！”，我听了也很高兴。这种性格跟随我一生，以现在的话说，送人玫瑰，手有余香。\n我爱看书学习，我上二年级时，就给我父亲写简历，他说，我写，写罢念给他听听，他说：行，免得去求人，还要酬情“。老师见了我父亲总爱说：”康模珍的爸，你女儿上学不用操心，上初中我们老师保送“，父亲听了很是高兴，每年都能拿个”三好学生“奖状回来。二姐每年考试都不及格，开学后再补考，康世有给她起了个名叫”二闷子‘，所以，我这个嫌毛就没有那么讨人嫌了。\n四清运动\n1964年四清运动开始了，工作组驻进了街道，破四旧，立四新，谁家有老式的东西，该砸的砸，该收的收，吃运动饭的人开始整人了。住我隔壁的表叔刘定忠因年轻时不给他妈吃，我父亲打过他，因此，怀恨在心，又嫉妒我父亲的生意好，整我父亲的机会来了。他让他老婆去工作组举报，说我父亲做生意是投机倒把二道商，买了又卖赚老百姓的钱，说我家房子多，都是投机倒把赚的。工作组找我父亲谈话，父亲说：“我做杂货生意是经过工商局批的，有营业执照正当生意，怎么叫投机倒把呢？我每个月都交工商管理费和税费”。把发票和税费都拿给工作组的人看，他们一核算，还没算完都已经上千元了（不知道是多少年的票据）。工作组一气之下，把那些票据都撕碎了，说我父亲不老实，要斗他，让他游街，最后说我们家房子多，要腾出来三间做毛泽东思想大学校，父亲被折磨的没办法，只好商量腾房，不然的话，没完没了。\n哥嫂分家后住在后面，那年哥嫂的孩子一百天突然死掉了（是个女儿，长得也很漂亮），房子太空，嫂子总有些害怕，她也同意，街面上的筒子屋，一分为二，因哥拉车，便于放车住前面，我们六口住在后面（那时大姐做工经常在外），好在妈妈会收拾，房子虽窄，收拾得井井有条。\n文化大革命\n四清运动罢了，1966年史无前例的文化大革命开始了，我们小学生除外，初中生，高中生也不上课，带着红卫兵袖章，到处造反，“革命无罪，造反有理”。\n工人也不怎么上班，“抓革命，促生产”，红卫兵带着袖章，打着红旗，拿着毛主席语录，全国各地跑，吃饭坐车都不要钱，各地都有红卫兵接待站，首先整的就是知识分子，什么知识越多越反动，北京最开始就是揪出文学专家大人物，邓拓，吴晗，廖沫沙，再就是国家副主席刘少奇，说刘少奇的《论共产党修养》一书是本大毒草，紧接着又揪出一个党内最大的走资派邓小平，从中央到地方轰轰烈烈，真是吓人。说你是啥就是啥，说你是白就是白，说你是黑就是黑，没有一点反驳的余地。只要反抗，就没有好果子吃，整死你。\n学生斗老师，工人斗领导，职工斗干部，农村斗成分不好的（地主，富农），有本事的人都会被人整。颠倒黑白。我父亲解放前在联保当了一个月的警卫员，也被这次运动划上一个反革命份子，不接份子书就斗你不罢休，整死你。没法子，只好接受。从此后就成了地，富，反，坏，右份子的一员了。\n文化大革命搞了整整三年，打，砸，抢也没人管，学生不升学，工厂不招工。后来小学六，七，八三个年级一块毕业，那年我六年级也毕业了（1968年结束了我的学生生涯）。初中高中三年没升学，三个年级一块毕业。\n三年没招工，毕业这么多学生怎么办？文化大革命三年，总结是，国民经济倒退了十年，物质非常缺乏，买东西凭票。\n那些吃运动饭的积极份子，我记事，也没落到好。几个人都早早的死掉了，本着实事求是，不能亏良心，亏良心的都会招报应，这是为人的宗旨。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["回忆录"]},{"title":"毕业十年相聚","url":"/%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9B%B8%E8%81%9A.html","content":"\n既抗战胜利70周年假期之际，我们0110班举行了短暂的十年相聚。多数人只待了2天，但因为大家的投入，收获的远超常规上班两天的时间感受。\n与相处四年的同学处在一起，非常亲切，尽管不少人都十年未见，但还是非常的熟悉，加之大家都没啥变化，面貌年轻（但多数都更宽了是肯定的），分开像只在一周前一样。\n城市倒是大变样了，街道口有了一些高架，已经完全不认识。东西两院的校门也变了，虽然多了过街地道，地表上加了广场显得拥挤。住的未来城大酒店为小区房改装，一门两卧都是单独的房间，方便。三位深圳的同学都选择一趟车同时到达，事先也没商量，也是没料到。\n同学的职业分布：\n出国2人，华为7人，银行5人，公务员+事业单位7人，企业9人（创业1人当老板啦），未知5人。单家企业华为真是同学归属的大头，也有单间寝室3位公务员的光荣寝。\n\npie showdata \n   \"出国\": 2\n   \"华为\": 7\n   \"银行\": 5\n   \"公务员+事业单位\": 7\n   \"其它企业\": 8\n   \"创业大老板\":1\n   \"未知\": 5\n第一天\n9.2号提前到了的同学，执意要去户部巷吃早餐，去年回家路经武汉，去过一次，印象不佳。口味和就餐条件包括卫生，都不值得称道。强烈建议耳闻的朋友们别去了。深情拥抱完，我不去留下，晃悠到不远的武大看了一眼，校门改过，进了校门，却再无任何兴趣往里走，毕竟我又不是武大学生，路上吃了个鸡蛋灌饼，很不正宗，怀疑加的肉也不是什么好肉，以后吃这样东西还是尽量少加料，虽然吃不出问题。打道回府碰到同学，就一起回酒店看阅兵了。阅兵实在是无趣，就不谈了。\n校园游园\n酒店门口小馆拼长桌吃饭吃到下午2-3点，换上统一T恤衫，校园游园开始，路过的有些说毕业十年了，还这么年轻。确实，大家不管在家乡的，在外打拼的，都很年轻。在校园里谈论的还是上学的傻事儿，上过课的楼，挂科的重修。一路从西院经工大路走到了鉴湖校区。工大路变化也不小，少了不少店面，没了趣味。鉴3教学楼里满是自习的同学，很恐怖，猜测是考研的大军，我们都不好意思进到教室里去拍照。\n遥望对面的图书城还是那么高大，但是从本地同学口中得知里面已经主体不是卖书了，搞很多档次很低的店铺，卖书不挣钱啊，回想之前的环境真正好啊，碰到的最好的图书售卖环境，没有之一，就算在其它城市的书城或图书馆也没看到更好的图书部署环境，找更好的估计要去国外了。\n住所回访\n摆拍完后，回到入驻4年的公寓看了看。公共场合显得破旧了，向看门的小哥说了点好话让上去了，推门看过寝室，还是老样子，学生们也感觉是老样子。园区的超市还是同样的布局。\n辅导员到访\n夜里聚餐，来了当时的辅导员，头发白了(有些超乎意料)，记性却是很好。大家相聚推杯换盏，跟毕业聚餐差不多，一样的开心，不过没那时喝得多，也不会有人再喝到吐了。酒足饭饱，唱K第二场，两位女同学表现很佳，大家更能放得开了，不像学校那会儿拘谨的不行。\n第二天\n第二天轻松磨山行，武汉挖路堵车厉害。湖心岛吃饭，实惠美味。下午又去了楚河汉街，老国企厂区改造建设出来的。万达电影主题公园里的飞跃湖北观感还是不错的，其他的对于我们成年人吸引力就不大了，更多的是为小朋友准备的。\n最后一晚\n夜里聚餐时，大家去了稻香，茶点和点菜一起来。茶点还是有不少同学不习惯。酒过，有同学洒泪。天各一方，大家的感情更加好了。这是一个可喜的变化，相比较于其它班的聚会，我们的相聚是很成功的。这都得益于在武汉几位同学的热心组织。\n尤其是我们同寝的柏君。柏君是武汉本地人，在校的时候，做事就是很大气得体，心态也是非常好，这还是得益于家教培养的好。让我这个大学之前几乎没出过县城的家伙非常钦佩。其实柏君在这毕业后十年，经历的家庭变动，比我们任何一个同学都大。见他，外在还是那么的豁达。最后一晚，大家饮着啤酒，他讲：人生有八苦，生老病死，爱别离，怨赠会（不喜欢的人总是碰到），求不得，放不下。这几点他都体会过，都已经看得开了。\n展望\n下一个十年，大家经历的会更多，每一个人，都要学会放开，放下。(到了2025年，20年大相聚未能组织起来)\n不用说那么多，这篇文章，也不是为了梳理下什么总结，生活也值得记录。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["日记"]},{"title":"汉字造字的精细","url":"/%E6%B1%89%E5%AD%97%E9%80%A0%E5%AD%97%E7%9A%84%E7%B2%BE%E7%BB%86.html","content":"\n关于水的字\n大水坑：池；小而深：潭；大而深：渊；广而浅：淀；广而深：湖\n湖连湖：泊；泊连泊：泽\n水面涌动：荡；水面微动：漾；水流很急：湍；水流很缓：滞；掀起小浪：波；掀起大浪：澜\n山水分界：涯；两山夹水：涧\n一面临水：滩；两面临水：湾；三面临水：渚（zh$\\check{u}$）；四面临水：洲\n人工开凿：渠；自然形成：溪；溪水汇聚：河；大河相连：江\n关于山/地的字\n \n小土山：丘；大土山：陵；土山统称：阜(f$\\grave{u}$)；\n高而尖的山：峰；高而大的山：岳；高而险的山：嶂；高而陡的山：峭；小而尖的山：峦；四周陡顶端平的山：崮；小而险的山：岘（xi$\\grave{a}$n）；山与山相连：岭；多草木的山：岵（h$\\grave{u}$）；不长草的山：屺（q$\\check{i}$）；\n水中小块陆地：渚；水中大块陆地：洲；水中更大陆地：岛；水边平地：汀(t$\\bar{i}$ng)\n沿河道修的：堤；拦河修筑：坝；控制水流：堰\n山梁山脊：冈；山脚：麓；山腰小道：阪（b$\\check{a}$n）；山陡立的侧面：崖，山岗高地：陇\n两山之间：谷；山脉中断处：陉（x$\\acute{i}$ng）\n两山相对有水：峡；两山相对无水：岬(ji$\\check{a}$)\n关于鬼的字\n\n魑魅魍魉分别是什么妖怪：\n\n魑：类似野兽的怪物，在山林里害人，可理解为山间猛兽变化的妖怪\n魅：老物精，上了年纪的老物件成精。又多指草木成精，所以可理解为山间草木化作的妖怪。\n魍魉：水里的恶鬼\n跋山涉水的危险形象化，就变成了这几个字。\n\n24鬼字旁的字，不是24种鬼，是包含鬼怪，现象，星宿，还有几个是同义通假字\n\n关于建筑的字\n亭：有顶无墙，用于休憩；台：高出地面平整开放，用于观赏，所以有戏台没有戏亭；\n楼：重屋为楼，两层以上带屋的；阁：与楼很像，四面有窗有门（源于南方的干阑式建筑），还有栏杆回廊（外挑平台）供人漫步观景，四敞为阁（楼阁中的四敞就是重点区分），阁的规则更高\n轩：与亭很像，但有窗有屋，一般在水边或高土台之上；榭：临水而建，一部分伸出水面；\n廊：连接两个建筑的通道，有顶棚用于遮阳挡雨；舫：仿船形建筑而成，大多三面临水，一面与陆地相连。\n寓：临时住所才叫寓；室：堂后休憩才叫室，所以登堂入室\n厅&amp;堂：都是聚会议事的大空间，但厅对外，堂对内（家\\族\\理念相同的群体）。如餐厅和食堂。\n房&amp;屋：屋可指多间房的建筑整体，正中为屋，两侧为房。房相对小和私密空间，所以是房事。\n家&amp;庭：都是平头百姓家的建筑，但庭比家要阔，百姓住的叫家，房前有院才叫庭。\n宅&amp;院：都是大户人家的建筑，院比宅应用更广。财主富户住的叫宅，院本指围墙，后连带院内的建筑，更扩展到偏脑力活动的区域。如枢密院，学院。\n府&amp;邸：虽都是官家建筑，但邸比府级别高，高级官员住的才叫邸\n宫&amp;殿：都是帝王家的建筑，但殿是办公场所，宫是居住场所\n根与本的区别\n根：是从草木等植物的形上去认识的，植物生长在地面之下的部分。艮($g\\grave{e}n$,$g\\check{e}n$)的甲骨文字形是一个拱起的后背上一个眼睛，好像是看脚后跟，造字的本意可归纳成身体最下端，对应到植物，最下面的部分就是根。\n\n艮的造字本意很多：回望、向后看、怒目回视，和见（向前看）相反。也可说怒目如刀，所以发展出来了狠，很，狠。又有艮，止也的含义，视而不让。其余含义属于引申变化，或用于小范围，小众领域。\n\n\n本：是在木下部加一指示符号，表明树根位置所在，跟末相对。也可以看作是草木起源于种子。引申为主体，原始等意义。\n美人与佳人\n美：甲骨文字形的本意是人带着漂亮的头饰格外引入注目（头上插着华丽羽毛等头饰的人，看起来好看，被人喜欢），羊大为美是金文小篆变体后的解读。美从本义上是经过修饰后呈现的漂亮状态，可以说仅代表一种客观的审美态度，并不注入个人感情，跟赏玩器皿风景等物件并没什么区别，所以古人称美人戏谑成分大过赞赏成分。\n丽：两只鹿角，也延伸指成对，如伉俪，黄鹂鸟。形容美貌的女子，唐代杜甫就喜欢用丽人\n如何称倾心仰慕和品貌俱佳的女子？佳人！\n仁义的区别\n仁：就是人二，把两个不同的人当成一个人去对待。去掉我与非我的差别，把别人当成自己人一样来看待。\n义：義，上美，下我。把美的下半部分，用我来代替。特指，我会被别人认为是美，会被别人赞赏。于是被用来指代那些会被别人赞赏的行为。\n二者是什么关系\n仁包含了义，义是从仁中分化出的行为类别之一。老子说，失仁，而后义。让咱们通过一则故事来剖析之。\n论语里有个故事：楚王打猎时丢了一把心爱的弓箭，手下们急得要回去找，而楚王说，算了吧，楚人丢了弓，反正也是被楚人捡走。手下听到楚王这么说，就认为楚王胸怀豁达，很有格局。\n而孔子听后说，楚王格局不够，应该说，人丢了弓，被人捡走。孔子就是从仁的角度去看这件事。\n而楚王则是从义的角度去看这件事。楚王要是觉得弓被秦国捡走来射自己，那楚国人一定骂自己，这种行为不会被人赞赏。所以义，是要被自己人赞赏，才能是义。所以古惑仔，土匪，要讲究一个义字，而不是仁字。它的思想理念，行为标准是更小格局的。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["文化","语言"]},{"title":"没走过的路开满鲜花","url":"/%E6%B2%A1%E8%B5%B0%E8%BF%87%E7%9A%84%E8%B7%AF%E5%BC%80%E6%BB%A1%E9%B2%9C%E8%8A%B1.html","content":"\n生活在别处\n\n生活能选择么？永远都像现在这样，我羡慕你清闲，你羡慕我钱多。\n在小城市安家的同学的这句说说道出了普遍之问\n\n看着身边朋友过得平淡安稳，而自己却依然辛苦忙碌，求而不得时，忍不住就会质疑起自己的人生。你会想，这样的生活当初你也唾手可得，可你偏偏选了一条难走的路。如果愿意降低标准，那份平淡或许仍是唾手可得，要做的就是往前勇敢选择时，你又退缩了。\n这个世界，总有人在过着你想要的生活。\n没走过的路鲜花拥簇？\n\n巷子里的猫很自由，却没有归宿，笼子里的鸟有归宿，却身陷囹圄，终身要低头。大城市繁华热闹，可容不下肉身，小城市有现世安稳，却容不下灵魂。无需脑补美化那条你没走过的路，那并不真实。得失从来就参半相生，你得不到的一切，可能也是别人在背后心酸和沧桑换来的（虽不绝对）。\n人在二十多岁，总愿意相信一句话：生活在别处。可惜人要到很久之后才能明白，这世上并不存在传说中的“别处”，你所拥有的，也不过是你手上的这些。而你兜兜转转最终得到的，也不过是你在第一个站台错过的。\n人与人，各有渡口，各有归舟，相信凡所发生，皆有意义。成年人最大的清醒是懂得顺势而为，既往不恋，未来不迎，当下不杂。\n永远不要美化那条没有走过的路，当下就是最优解，而未来的路又取决于你当下是否走好。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"油腻的周董","url":"/%E6%B2%B9%E8%85%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%91%A8%E8%91%A3.html","content":"\n油腻与江郎才尽\n《Mojito》一出感到不是那么欣慰的fans应该不少，也有老腔调“江郎才尽”来描述感受，这个词可以用在很多文艺界人士身上，但用这个词给周董是不公平的，因为周董已经可以不靠这个搏生活，还继续出来其实是也是一种有感而发，加之对粉丝的一个交代，这种状态下用油腻是更贴切的。\n任何才气横溢的人也有收敛的一天，不可能时时刻刻输出好作品的，像伍迪艾伦每年一部电影，也不是每年都有好作品，但你要敬佩的是别人的态度，别人是在淡然书写自己的热爱坚持和答卷。不知道市场的口味还期待大收获，屡次撞墙的话用江郎才尽总结才合适。\n天才是年轻人的专利\n滚石史上最伟大的十首歌，绝大多数都是21-24岁之间写出来的，也就是说对于流行音乐来说，先天天赋比后天勤奋更重要。随着年龄增长，命途通达，创作力减缓是很正常的一件事。这不仅在音乐界，在科学界也不是什么新鲜话题。\n周董的名字和他过去的成绩，就已经足够了，周董就算再做十年旅游博主，照样是站在顶峰的人，同样20多岁，后来者大可以挑战他试试。\n\n为什么产出会下降\n周董现在的状态太好了，所以没有以前对外界和新事物敏感（或者不感兴趣了），人到中年，可能都会进入一个思考自己的过程，以前是单身所以思考问题以自己居多，看世界的方式是年轻人的方式，对抗，不平，撕裂，活出风格，展现格调… 现在家庭圆满，我自己挺好，不需要你指导，顶多想要给孩子们留点指导意义的东西，所以半退休状态的他，还肯出来，粉丝们感恩意味更大点或许会更实际。\n音乐人还是要有表达欲，创作者都是我手写我心，写自己当前最真实，最想表达的状态，人家这几年就是安享美满家庭，享受甜甜爱情，没有那么多大风大浪，写点情歌咋了，只是部分歌迷还停留在过去的生活状态或者是旧歌新俘虏的年轻人。当然如果没什么想和歌迷交流，没什么想要说出来，也无需硬拗，周董这种风格眼见将是常态，被新生代年轻偶像替代自是当然，不妨碍其历史成就。\n后记\n记这篇内容，主要是出于学习第三章中别人对这种现象的表达，从娱乐圈类推其它行业圈其实又有很多相似之处，借用能量密度这个概念可以。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["音乐"]},{"title":"浪潮之巅NVIDIA","url":"/%E6%B5%AA%E6%BD%AE%E4%B9%8B%E5%B7%85NVIDIA.html","content":"\n吴军老师的《浪潮之巅》写作较早，暂未收录NVIDIA这家公司。写一篇网文汇总，回顾这位2023年彪炳IT史的弄潮儿，勇立潮头者，少不了值得我们品味学习的地方。\n从&quot;刺头&quot;到巨头\n\nlinux之父linus，因英伟达多年来拒绝对GPU内核驱动开源，对英伟达竖过🖕🏻：英伟达是我们遇到过最糟糕的公司。So F**K you，Nvidia！\n\n22年应黑客攻击，才开源Linux驱动源码（黑客也为了解除特定显卡的挖矿限制）\n\n\n\n\n\n\n微软，英特尔，AMD，三星，高通都跟英伟达对簿过公堂，但「皮衣刀客」就是：不怕得罪客户，不怕战斗！\n\n\n给加密货币提供矿机，推出专门面向“挖矿”定制的专业矿卡。为了挖矿生产的，游戏玩家们没办法用，直接舍弃了图形处理功能\n\n以前吹以太坊有价值，加密货币矿机有未来。但以太坊从POW（工作量证明）转向了POS（权益证明），话锋一转，又说加密货币无法给社会带来啥价值\n矿机的几年背负了很多骂名，但也让公司撑到了AI新世代的周期\n\n\n\n一路推动GPU走向主流市场，坚持搭建生态，形成了如今高耸的护城河和垄断式的市场占有率，不得不佩服管理层近10几年的远见卓识\n\n\n\n命运的齿轮\n\n老黄如今已是硅谷科技巨头中现任最久的CEO，敏锐又灵活，精明无比\n\n成长履历\n\n\n祖籍浙江，1963年生于台湾，9岁后跟哥哥一道去美国，并就此定居在美（老爹出差去了一次美国后就执意让孩子过去发展），脱离父母在美生活了2年，陌生的差环境，锻炼了黄仁勋强大的环境适应能力\n\n\n当时住在肯塔基州的亲戚家，上着一所乡村寄宿学校，学校有很多问题学生，他学会了爬墙，偷吃东西和抽烟\n\n\nAMD掌舵人 苏姿丰（3岁移民美国，比老黄小6岁）要尊称黄仁勋为表舅，其姥爷是老黄的亲大舅\n\n\n\n1978年，15岁的老黄获得美国乒乓球男子双打季军，在竞争不强的美国乒乓球界，老黄有很大机会成为乒乓球运动员，代表美国队参加88年奥运会\n\n说说有趣的走向，大神钱学森生于清朝，二战末期被授予上校军衔，他和冯.卡门，冯.布劳恩都是美国现代火箭和导弹技术奠基人，若在漫威世界线中，钱上校应该和美国队长是战友，和霍华德史塔克是同事，同是神盾局创始人之一\n\n\n\n81年(18岁），黄仁勋进入波特兰州立大学就读，86~89年进入斯坦福攻读电子工程硕士学位，在斯坦福，接触到了更先进的计算机图形技术，对于图形处理器的研究个更加深入\n\n\n毕业后，黄仁勋加入AMD负责图形处理器及相关产品，两年后，黄仁勋离开AMD，加入了LSI Logic，担任图形处理器设计师。在LSI Logic，他又积累了大量关于图形处理器的实践经验\n\n\n创立NVIDIA\n93年，30岁的黄仁勋与Chris Malachowsky和Curtis Priem共同创立了NVIDIA，专注于图形处理器的研发和制造。公司名称NVIDIA来源于拉丁语“envidea”，意为“视觉”，此时是游戏发展「街机转家用机」的浪潮。他们早期的明星产品是Geforce 256，是dx7时代「千禧年前后」的市场精品\n老黄立志将公司做到计算机图形领域的老大哥，可现实是残酷的。起初，黄与团队耗时两年打造了第一款显卡产品NV1，由于不兼容竞争对手3DFX的Glide 3D标准，销售表现十分惨淡，最终不得不停止销售。好在这款产品吸引了视频游戏制造商Sega的注意，并与之建立了合作。但经过一年的开发，英伟达的团队意识到其设计的架构是错误策略，因为微软即将宣布基于反向纹理映射和三角形的Windows 95 Directx3D，这代表着如果英伟达完成了Sega的游戏机，公司将会创造出与Windows不相容的产品，sigh！\n想要拯救奄奄一息的英伟达，必须破釜沉舟。黄仁勋将英伟达的战略从游戏主机转向PC市场，并从游戏设计公司晶体动力挖来David Kirk（也就是后来的CUDA之父）博士担任首席科学家，组织了一个庞大的研发团队。\nCPU vs GPU\n\n通用vs专用\n\nCPU就像一个学习渊博的教授，什么都精通都能做，但任务的一项项做，比较慢\nGPU就像一堆小学生，对于特定的简单运算任务，人多力量大，所以在大量并行计算上，GPU完胜\n\nGPU是做协同处理，叫co-processor，因为GPU是处理大量并行计算，所以它的设计上并没花很多心血做程序的控制，依然作为协处理器存在PC体系结构中\nGPU由于历史原因，是为了视频游戏而产生的，在三维游戏中常常出现的一类操作是对数据进行相同的操作，如：对每一个顶点进行同样的坐标变换，对每一个顶点按照同样的光照模型计算颜色值。GPU的众核架构非常适合把同样的指令流并行发送到众核上，采用不同的输入数据执行。\nCUDA时代的CPU和GPU差异可以参阅[6]，在CUDA的概念中，CPU和GPU分属Host和Device，二者之间通过PCIe总线连接，可以在CUDA编程中使用cudaMemcpy函数进行CPU与GPU之间的数据传递\n核数差异\nCPU虽然有多核，但总数没有超过两位数，每个核都有足够大的缓存和足够多的数字和逻辑运算单元，并辅助有很多加速分支判断甚至更复杂的逻辑判断的硬件；\nGPU核数远超CPU，被成为众核（Nvidia Fermi有512个核）。每个核拥有的缓存大小相对小，数字逻辑运算单元也少而简单（初始GPU在浮点运算上一直弱于CPU）\n\n总结来看\n\n\n\n\nCPU\nGPU\n\n\n\n\n包含\n较少的多功能核心\n很多功能单一的核心\n\n\n内存消耗\n高\n低\n\n\n专注于\n低延迟\n高通量\n\n\n擅长\n处理复杂的串行指令\n处理并行的简单指令\n\n\n\n成本+专业演进\n两个小芯片比一个大芯片便宜\n不断膨胀臃肿的CPU，在成本，功耗，还有灵活性上，远不如一个小CPU加上一个GPU的组合搭配\n专业之道，惟精惟一\nCPU和GPU很多东西是不一样的，领域专注使其性能，架构灵活性，使得其可随着行业生态及编程API等不断去修改，去提升\n独立GPU的催化剂-DirectX\n微软看到越来越多人开始用PC，而PC除了办公外，还有游戏功能，但PC游戏的3D效果没有办法跟PS2对比。Windows上尚缺乏统一的图形和音频接口，开发者难以为应用程序和游戏提供一致的用户体验。\n微软那时想到一个办法，就是把大量图形的功能，才CPU中移植出来放到GPU上，通过这种方法让GPU的性能强起来，推动行业发展，反过来去巩固他自己在PC端的地位。与此战略打配合的就是DirectX：一种图形音频API接口。\nDirectX把市面上各种各样的硬件统一起来，提供了一个标准API，让开发者们能更好地调用这些GPU的硬件性能，而不必耗费大量精力在兼容性上。\nDirectX，它的早期版本图标是一个核弹（内部代号曼哈顿计划），寓意也很明显，从日本人手里把图形方面的制高点拿下来。把市场、标准甚至以后的前沿技术，都攥在自己手里\n\n刚诞生时，还是很原始的一个东西，没什么人去用它，那时候整个民用行业关于图形应用方面的话语权，都在日本游戏厂商手里。\n\n97年当时还有三个标准:OpenGL、DirectX、3DFX公司的Glide。\n直到Directx6（1998）才借助32位渲染和整合的纹理压缩算法打败对手，成为主流\n\n在微软的带动下，英伟达开始与下游厂商纷纷结成伙伴，最终活了下来。\nDX7：催化剂的临界点\nDirectx在DX7版本的时候（1999）的设计，决定了现代意义上的GPU的诞生。\nDX7之前的GPU，专做填充颜色，图形从顶点到多边形的的生成，这种运算全都由CPU来做。微软在DX7-API里，把顶点计算、多边形生成的很大一部分工作卸载下来了（Transform &amp; Lighting：T&amp;L，坐标转换和光源），给了GPU，使得GPU有更大的作用。\n\n\n3D游戏中除了场景+物体还需要灯光，没有灯光就没有3D物体的表现\n卸载前，CPU计算出顶点坐标之后，还要去生成很多三角形，然后再做一些着色指令发给GPU，GPU再去做这些东西，之前坐标转换和灯光都需要CPU来计算\n卸载后，CPU只要告诉GPU坐标点在哪里，剩下的交给GPU自己去做就可好了。在刚开始分离的时候，效率没有太大的提升\n\n随着特效越来越多，往CPU中塞入更多浮点加速单元，跟上DX新版本的要求，已经越来越难了，这时候GPU的重要性就凸显出来了\n\n换句话说，通过一个很复杂，性能很强的CPU去渲染3D图像，在成本和技术上实现都有困难\nGPU就是能从一个硬件上支持T&amp;L的显示芯片，因为T&amp;L是3D渲染中的一个重要部分，其作用是计算多边形的3D位置和处理动态光线效果，也可以称为“几何处理”\n\nDX7时代开始，英伟达和微软深度绑定。之前英伟达喜欢支持一些自有或不够主流的标准，经常产品失败，而后微软每一次API的大改动，老黄都是第一时间去支持的。\n\n深度绑定微软，Geforce256就是DX7的划时代产品。\nGeforce256所采用的核心技术除了硬件T&amp;L之外，还有立方环境材质贴图、顶点混合，纹理压缩和凹凸映射贴图，双重纹理四像素、256位渲染引擎等诸多先进技术，在性能大幅提升同时，3D游戏的画面得到了质的提升\n\nDX8：CPU和GPU彻底分离\nDX8（2000）也发生了一件关键的事情：微软在GPU API中引入了法线贴图，及可编程着色器\n\n这两个功能都需要你在处理器的执行单元额外加入晶体管，芯片面积会变大。\n\n比如说1000个流处理器，每个周期可以做两个操作，它跑在1GHz频率下，就能跑出2TFlops的浮点运算能力\n今天7纳米的时代，把1000个流处理器集成到一个CPU里，也还是一个非常占面积，很费力的事情，而这只是独立GPU的入门水平\n\n可编程着色器（每一个渲染管线），开发者控制力增强。走到这一步，CPU就没办法承受了，因为CPU本就为了追求单核性能和灵活性，再去加入专用单元，CPU会越来越臃肿。\n首款DX8显卡：GeForce 3 Ti，由于DX8渲染模式的改变，GeForce 3相对于DX7的GeForce 2/256有了天翻地覆的变化，一半以上的模块需重新设计，更多的晶体管融入，你也可映射为现在显卡的浮点计算能力（3D图形处理），在两家显卡厂商的DX8产品里，ATI架构更出色，NV家的性能更强（晶体管投放到顶点管线上）\n DX8后，行业已默认CPU没办法再完全承担3D图形渲染任务，如果你想玩游戏，或者想从事一些3D工作的话，GPU是必须的。\n大幅增加CPU性能继续负担图形渲染的思路，也是有的，即PS3上的用的处理器\n\n这颗处理器非常奇葩，完全沿袭了日本人过去十几年对图形行业的理解，就是一个CPU加入足够多的浮点单元和加速单元，可实现各种各样的计算功能，他们当时号称能“模拟地球”，可惜在那个年代没有走通\n这样的芯片太复杂了，开发难度太大，处理器很臃肿，成本也太高，最后的表现不尽如人意。\n\nDX的后续嬗变\n从DX7到DX8，GPU出具成型。DX9C（2004，DX9首发于2002），是一个非常好的标准，吹响高精度渲染时代的号角。但实际上，当时游戏主要依靠美工，并没有支持很多特效，主要原因是，GPU灵活性不是很强，本质上还没有跳脱暴力的“纹理填充”机器的范畴。\n统一渲染Milestone\nDX10（2006），微软又一次推动了行业，引入了“统一渲染”\n渲染一个画面，本质是两个步骤\n\n绘制出顶点，顶点用来绘制三角形，然后绘制每个模型 ： 顶点单元\n给这些顶点绘制出来的部分上色，或者做一些渲染：像素渲染\n\n分开来看，本来是一种很合理的方案，让专门的单元做专门的事情，但在游戏渲染过程中，你顶点单元10个，渲染单元5个的硬件预设，可能对编程的灵活应用带来复杂度。\n微软对两者做了一个合并，这两个东西变成了一个东西，我就既可以计算顶点，也可以去填充像素，这就是我们说的统一渲染。\n\nDX10随07年Vista发布，NVIDIA在支持DX10方面可谓占了先机，早在06年就已经推出了硬件支持DX10的下一代显示核心–G80。其不再区分像素和顶点着色单元，而是由流处理器单元按照负载动态的执行包括像素和顶点在内的各种着色指令，不同的着色单元不会再出现空闲浪费资源的情况。\n\n命运齿轮的再次转动\n微软尝试统一渲染的时候（DX10），英伟达是被排除在体系之外的（之前两家在打官司），但后来，英伟达非常迅速地倒向统一渲染，完成了架构上的革新（架构推倒重来，彻底地自我革命）\n\n英伟达把它的流处理器拆成了很独立，很标准的单元，方便控制和调度，每个流处理器都可以独立运行\nAMD的处理器是很长的一个大组，一次读取大量指令，缺点是每5个或4个流处理被绑定在一起，不能独立运行\n\nATI是用超长指令集的架构（SIMD-单指令多数据流），每4个矢量+1个标量做一个流处理器组，配合当时微软做的统一渲染的一种试水，没有彻底为统一渲染架构从头做一个设计，效率还是很有问题\n只有一个指令数据输入口，5个单元同进退，现实中很多时候，每个周期可能只是过来一个标量和或两个矢量指令，相当于流处理器中很多单元是在闲置状态（设计与现实不完全匹配）\n后来被收购合并更是无法及时对技术架构做一个彻底的变革\n\n\n\nDX10引导了CUDA\n而如果英伟达没有把自己的GPU变成统一渲染的标量化，CUDA就是一个空谈\n\n本身GPU编程已经是一个很困难的东西了，更何况是给超长指令集的GPU编程。\n给GPU编程，让其资源利用最大化，计算资源需要都标准化，不能是特殊配比\n\n\n流处理器是1D标量处理器，它一次只能计算像素和顶点 4个数据中的一个，这样效率不会很低吗？当然不是，因为随着游戏的发展，GPU要处理的指令已经不是4D这种常规数据流了，进入DX10时代后，Z缓冲区（1D）或纹理存取（2D）等非4D指令所占比重越来越多，此时传统的Shader单元在执行此类指令时效率会降至1/2甚至1/4\nG80 1D标量处理器执行各种类型指令时效率都能达到100%，这也就是NVIDIA对于GPU架构大换血的主要目的，G80的这种架构被称为MIMD（多指令多数据流），其特色就是执行效率非常高，但也不是没缺点，理论运算能力偏低，晶体管消耗比较大，当然由于对手产品实力不行，这些缺点在很长一段时间内都没有被发现。而且NVIDIA的1D标量流处理器还可以异步工作在超高频率下，一般是GPU核心频率的两倍，由此大幅提升了渲染能力，这一技术ATI到2010年时还没实现。\nG80的MIMD标量架构需要占用额外的晶体管数，在流处理器和理论运算能力方面比较吃亏，但却能保证超高的执行效率；而R600的SIMD超标量架构可以用较少的晶体管数获得很多的流处理器数量和理论运算能力，但执行效率方面却不如人意，G80的架构显然要比R600改进更为彻底。\n\n\n\nMIMD(单指令多数据流)的超标量架构可以执行任意组合形式的混合指令\nSIMD架构非常依赖于将离散指令重新打包组合的算法和效率，赢了晶体管成本，输了执行效率\n\n\n真正的大佬：Microsoft\n\n半导体行业，尤其数字芯片这块，有一句话叫“硬件软件不分家“，微软是PC生态主导，它的API承担了桥梁的作用，自然而然，它能去收集很多游戏开发商及软件生态行业的需求。\n还有一些研究院，有很多前沿的探索，在研究的过程中，微软觉得下一代可能要做某些改进，于是反馈给GPU厂商。\n也正是因为如此，微软在GPU行业发生变革的时候，它走在前面，或者说它引领了变革\n\nDX重大版本更新，GPU必采用全新架构\n\n决定显卡市场胜败的关键是在体系架构方面，这是双方设计实力的体现\n市场验证每次都是新架构产品胜出，不变则败\n\n\nCUDA真正能起来，一方面是英伟达顶层的远见卓识，一方面是因为微软背后推动了GPU架构的重大变革\n微软要搞光追，老黄第一个站出来说：”好，我来当马前卒“，老黄很卖力地去推微软要推进的东西，相比之下，AMD，英特尔对这一块没那么感兴趣\n\n土地与作物\nGPU本质上跟软件是高度耦合的，这也导致了它跟API版本，跟API厂商关系必须非常密切，微软在图形领域掌握了标准话语权\nGPU作物要长得好，它就必须听土地的话，而土地就是微软。\n英伟达干过很多荒唐的事，但还是一步步走到了今天，能够成功，有很大的因素就是他当微软的跟屁虫，这样能保证其在生态上、在标准上不会被人拉到后面去\n与各位大佬Battle\n\n曾几何时，半导体市场有4大玩家：英特尔，AMD，ATI以及英伟达，还有一个超级大甲方金主：微软\n英特尔CPU的市场太大了，处于非常舒服的位置，基本上的态度就是：市场上有啥新东西，你们先搞着，到时候组装到我的主板里面就行了，后来Intel采用了CPU+GPU的集成显卡策略，让ATI和英伟达去竞争，英特尔坐收渔利。\n\n集成显卡一般分为独立显存集成显卡，内存划分集成显卡及混合式集成显卡三类\n\n两个CPU巨头盯着两个GPU新星，明着暗着拉帮结派，再加上，微软，几方就开始搞事情\n微软为了进军游戏主机业务，与任天堂和索尼展开直接竞争，就找到了英伟达，让他成为当时还是秘密项目的Xbox（2002）的GPU供应商。（此时正是DX8的年代）\n\n52亿美金的合同，定金就直接给了2亿美元，当时英伟达全年销售才5亿美元，相当于包养了\n氪金玩家下场，初代配置奇高（堪比高配电脑），进而错过了与PS2（2000）的先发时机，盖茨的一号项目，不成功就成仁，亏钱市场也要有个响（卖一台Xbox，就要亏126美元）\n\n奔腾3处理器+英伟达的显卡+DVD光驱+…\n装载英伟达GPU-Geforce 3的Xbox比单买Geforce 3还要便宜30美金（299 vs 329）\n\n\n这就动了让供应商英伟达降价的念头，一口回绝法庭见，微软扭头转向英伟达的对手ATI，英伟达一年股价蒸发90%\n\n以5.07亿美元身家排在第12位，后一年老黄个人财富缩水10倍，直接从”亿万“回到了”千万“富翁\n\n\n\n意识到错误，忍辱负重\n与微软的交恶，直接导致新推出的Geforce FX因为和微软的标准不兼容，而被对手ATI推出的Radeon 9700打得一败涂地，更糟糕的是，GeForce FX还出现运行温度过高的问题\n挣钱嘛，跪着很常见\n\n服了软，在2003年2月6号与微软共同宣布结束法庭仲裁程序，同意与微软合作降低Xbox的未来成本\n另一手，争取到新金主，为下一代游戏主机PS3提供显示芯片\n主板芯片领域也开始和Intel芯片组兼容（原来首发跟老东家AMD），04年还跟Intel专利交叉许可\n\n\n2004第三季度，在独立显卡市场，ATI市占率59%，而英伟达只有37%。此时在DX9时代区间（02~04）\nAMD收购ATI，天上掉馅饼\n时代的转机：当时AMD很焦虑，CPU争不过Intel，也认同GPU的发展会是未来重要的策略，于是一跺脚，买下市面上最好的GPU供应商。\n\n最开始，AMD想买的是英伟达，但黄仁勋坚持要做合并后公司的CEO，遂告吹，你可以说老黄开出一个无法接受的条件拒绝合并\n\n2006年7月，AMD宣布，以54亿美元收购ATI，市场认为，一个强大的巨头即将诞生，但老黄不这么看，他笃定，AMD吞下AIT之际必然有一段时间的消化和整合期，而英伟达需要抓住这个时期，重新找到市场优势。\n\n这简直是天上掉馅饼一样的礼物，ATI基本上已经认输了，我们成了世界上唯一一家独立的图形芯片公司 – 老黄的采访原话\n\n果不其然，整合让AMD伤筋动骨，颓势一直持续到2016年，消化不良了10年时间\n\n沉重的债务负担，几乎用光了公司的账面现金，负债表到2010年才降下来，一度让AMD濒临破产\n\nAMD收购ATI之前，ATI花了相当的时间在当时的显卡领域”买买买“，专利和技术在ATI的收购过程中产生了大量的溢价（其实老牌显卡商的技术已落后），也就是说，ATI花大价钱把自己吃成了个大胖子，然后这个大胖子又被AMD花更大的价钱吃掉\nAMD穷得连晶圆厂也卖了\n\n\n整合拖慢了节奏，资金链紧张拖累了研发进度，暂时没有产生1+1&gt;2的效果，双线作战的时候力不从心\n\nDX10（2006），统一渲染，ATI面临收购买落地架构变革\n\n\n\nIntel vs Nvidia二英扭打起来\n\n英伟达不满足只做Intel的芯片组集成显卡供应商，开始进攻Intel的蛋糕\n\n2007年，英伟达退出Tesla系列，用于大规模的并联电脑运算，GPU计算解决方案，涵盖到个人电脑以及大规模服务器集群，大客户是Apple。\n08年的苹果MacBook除了CPU用Intel的Core 2 Duo，剩下的直接替换成英伟达的Tesla架构支持的集成控制器GeForce 9400MG，而不是英特尔芯片组的南北桥。\nIntel保守坠落\nIntel铆足了劲想自研芯片，CPU市占率80%，图形处理器市场靠集成芯片组，也能吃50%\n\n这么大的公司，这么多人才，可就是搞不定自研GPU芯片平台\n那就决裂，提前脱钩，北桥芯片不跟你合作了，之前的交叉专利授权不再适用新一代芯片组\n\n一个月后，老黄反手就将Intel诉上，指Intel违反合同，实为阻碍技术\n\n\n打了两年官司，Intel累了，双方和解，和解条件是，Intel要在5年内向英伟达支付15亿美元的专利使用费\n\n市值对比\n谁曾想，英特尔市值当前竟是英伟达的九分之一，直奔1:10而去（2024.2.6）\n\n英特尔市值：$1808亿\n英伟达：$17125亿\nAMD：$2815亿，原来PC时代的万年老二，现今也力压Intel 1千亿市值\n\nxychart-beta horizontal\n    title \"半导体公司市值\"\n    x-axis [INTEL, AMD, NVIDIA]\n    y-axis \"2024.2.6市值 (in $亿)\" 1000 --> 20000\n    bar [1808, 2815, 17125]\n移动市场battle三星高通\n\n英伟达推出的独立移动芯片Tegra，也就是AP（Application Processor）处理器，含CPU+GPU，但还缺基带芯片整合和市场\n\n半道转行到手机芯片，看似功能强大，功耗发热问题有致命伤\n\n英伟达之前一直是苹果Mac电脑系列的GPU提供商，手机芯片这样一块大蛋糕，大家都想要，但苹果说：你们都别想了，我自研\n\n苹果芯片找三星来代工，同时合作了高通的基带芯片\n苹果不满意，可能也跟遭遇过显卡门事件有关，何况Jobs这么吹毛求疵一人\n\n然后就将三星，高通告上法庭，侵犯英伟达图形技术专利7项。三星亦反诉其推出的平板电脑侵犯三星专利8项。官司一打就是8年，却在16年无赔偿庭外和解（AI和挖矿已经开始，大时代画卷已经展开，何必在法庭瞪眼）\n一路走来的经营感悟\n因为专注研发最领先的GPU技术，将巨头们都甩在身后\n但也意识到：产品过于单一、过于依赖性金主甲方的商业模式终究是不安全的\n\n\n大客户永远想砍价\n\n\n永远想将技术变为自有\n\n\n反脆弱化生存\n在老黄的感悟中，生存非常重要，现今为王，作为一名CEO，要么赚钱，要么省钱，要么融资。不专注于这三件事就是CEO不务正业。\n活下去 $\\rightarrow$ 站着挣\n\n\n紧跟标准。图形领域的的标准话语权掌握在微软手里，当好微软的跟屁虫\n\n\n英伟达的文化，就是“快速试错，快速迭代”。如果一个东西对了，它就死命加注；如果错了，就当做没发生过。比如大概十年前，3D显示很火。英伟达不遗余力宣传3D 显示，推出配套软件，配套眼镜。但后来发现这个东西没推广开，英伟达很快翻篇了。\n\n\nGTC发布会什么热点都蹭，量子计算、元宇宙，挖矿等等\n\n老黄看到了大家都在做智能手机，他也想去做智能手机的soc，所以它有一个图睿的产品线，但一直很烂。图睿就一直在折腾，折腾手机，折腾什么机顶盒，后来去折腾车，终于给他蹭上一次风口\n“在英伟达创立初期，我经历了失败，极大的失败，所有的失败都令人羞愧和尴尬。很多都几乎使我们走向了灭亡。”老黄总是有一种创业初期的紧张感，强调快速决策并要求快速执行\n\n\n\nGPU本质上跟软件是高度耦合的，开始下注GPU产品的多样性以及软件生态的搭建。\n\n\n另拓生态求生\n GPU产品的多样性以及软件生态的搭建，路在哪里？\n任务分解\n\n\n如何将自己身的技术更前沿化，修建更高的护城河\n\n\n将产品更多元化，更少依赖单一大客户？\n\n\nGPU技术通用化\n首席科学家David Kirk提出了“将GPU技术通用化”的思路\n\n\n之前主要为了图形图像处理而生，主要做3D渲染，游戏是长期核心业务\n\n\n应该探索“运行图形渲染”之外的“通用计算”任务，包括超级计算机\n\n科学研究和计算、模拟、药物发现、更专业的好莱坞制作等其他更高端的专业图形领域\nGPU的众核架构非常适合把同样的指令流并行发送到众核上，采用不同的输入数据执行。开始在通用计算领域得到广泛应用，包括：数值分析，海量数据处理（排序，Map-Reduce等），金融分析等\n\n\n\n黄仁勋支持了David Kirk的想法，在2006年开始投入大量人员和资源研发这样的并行计算程序开发环境，名为CUDA-Compute Unified Device Architecture–计算统一设备架构\n\n成功之前路亦难走\n\n计算统一设备架构太前瞻了，外界质疑一片\n\n回顾通用计算，2006年到2008年期间，dx10统一渲染刚刚出来，英伟达就不断投入资源，持续了很多年，当时被人骂的非常惨。\n\n在硬件产品中增加CUDA逻辑电路，这使得芯片面积变大、散热增加、成本上升、故障率增高；图形性能却和AMD差不多，人家价格还便宜，功耗还低\n\n2008年就发生了英伟达“显卡门”事件，高温下屏幕扭曲、画面杂乱，让苹果这些大客户对英伟达产生了不满\n\n\n至于英伟达那时候扯什么显卡能做通用计算？消费者根本不关心，玩游戏为什么要考虑蛋白质折叠计算？\n\n如果做CUDA的原因仅仅是基于“科学计算”的需求，你将所有市场加起来，也不过是个几十亿美元的小市场，华尔街否定CUDA\n\n\n华尔街一直问英伟达，为什么你们做了这项投入，却没有人使用它，他们对我们的市值估值为0美元\n围绕着CUDA的质疑一直持续到了AI时代的前夜，英伟达的市值常年徘徊在10亿美元的水平，股价甚至一度因为CUDA附加成本对业绩的拖累跌至1.5美元。股东多次提出希望他们专注于提高盈利能力。老黄也需要说服股东接受成本上升一倍，去搏一个回报周期可能在10年以上的未来\n\n当时，说实话，老黄在当年也无法准确预知，这个市场会有多大，是不是正确的选择。他只知道他押注的是“加速计算”并深信不疑相信这是未来。若这份坚持对的，那么更大更宽的市场会向他打开大门。\n**智能车，云计算、元宇宙、超算，还有各种各样的一些支撑我们数字化的底层的东西，都需要算力。而这些算力大部分时候，都是需要一种并行的向量计算。**他们可能不需要像CPU那样去处理不同的程序，但是需要做很多简单但是非常繁重的计算任务。很多超算、数据中心、加速卡，他们做的事情就是这类计算，需求的是一种大规模并行向量的计算卡\n软件烘托硬件\nGPU可以有效地执行多种运算，从线性代数和信号处理到数值仿真。虽然概念简单，但新用户在使用GPU计算时还是会感到迷惑，因为GPU需要专有的图形知识。这种情况下，一些软件工具可以提供帮助\nGPU编写程序的复杂度非常高，如果要为更通用的人群做GPU产品，那就要开始做软硬件的生态\n\n满足不同领域的开发者用他们已经熟悉的编程语言在软件生态上编写程序和应用，来驱动GPU处理不同的计算任务\n当程序员为CPU编写程序时，他们倾向于利用复杂的逻辑结构优化算法从而减少计算任务的运行时间，即Latency。当程序员为GPU编写程序时，则利用其处理海量数据的优势，通过提高总的数据吞吐量（Throughput）来掩盖Lantency\n\n\nCUDA编译器，把一个本来是串行处理的东西变成并行。就是因为CUDA降低了编程的难度，所以很多人来用它。如果英伟达没有做在硬件架构上做一个彻底性的变革，后来通用计算的功能也就不可能了。\n\nCUDA并非一个纯软件的解决方案，它还需要在硬件上做出相应的设计，从directx10那时的G80至往后都有CUDA相关的硬件设计\n经 GPU存储和操作的数据被形象地比喻成“流”（stream），类似于标准C中的数组。核心（Kernel）是在流上操作的函数。在一系列输入流上调用一个核心函数意味着在流元素上实施了隐含的循环，即对每一个流元素调用核心体\n\n早期CUDA让GPU能运行C写的通用计算程序，可惜AMD没有加入合作协议计划（他们毕竟是竞争对手）。NVIDIA发布了CUDA，AMD和Apple等公司也发布了OpenCL，GPU开始在通用计算领域得到广泛应用，包括：数值分析，海量数据处理（排序，Map-Reduce等），金融分析等等\nCUDA真正能够起来，一方面是因为微软背后推动了GPU架构的重大变革，另一方面，在大家都还没看好时间节点的时候，英伟达投入大量的资源去开发相关的生态\n坚守与创新\n皮衣刀客在守住自己的基本盘——GPU传统图形业务的同时，不断地在未来看得到赔率的地方加速投入。\n\n\n从g80开始，g90、g200，整整四代的架构、对应五代的产品线。他折磨了无数的玩家，无数买他卡的人，陪他一起去分摊成本\n\n\n也推出了Tesla系列的专门的计算卡，但是除了超算之外的地方，相对卖得比较少\n\n\n从又臃肿又难用，到不断自我革命，英伟达挺过来了，等到了那一刻，获得了未来十年的丰厚回报\n\n\n不断自我革命。英伟达创新性引入了一个东西——tensor core。之前所有的AI计算，都是用GPU里面的CUDA或者说流处理来计算\n\n\n很多人都觉得流处理器，是给图形渲染局用的，效率比较低，就想用ASIC去做AI计算。那英伟达本来是最不应该去开发ASIC或者加速单元的，因为这是自己抢自己饭碗吃嘛。但英伟达就做了，他引入了Tensor Core，一种专用加速单元，效果非常好，进一步拉大了跟其他后来者的一个差距。\n\n\ntensor core是一种能执行高效矩阵运算的微小核心。以两个32*32的矩阵乘法为例，有tensor core，计算频率周期能下降一半（访问共享内存周期和计算周期都下降）\n\n\n\n\n\ncuda9.0引入了一个warp矩阵函数 C++语言API，以便开发者可使用GPU上的tensor core，加速矩阵乘加操作\n\n\nNVCC编译器将CUDA代码编译成主机端代码和设备端代码。设备端代码首先编成设备无关机器语言指令集，然后再编译成设备相关机器码\n\n\nCUDA环境已经在持续投入过程中成型了，一些生物实验室开始买显卡了\nNumpy与Tensor的应用区别\nnumpy虽然在科学计算领域十分普及，但在深度学习领域，有两个制约它使用的因素：没有自动求导，不能用GPU加速。故大公司普遍选择了创立更易用的接口或新的编程语言来进行深度学习计算。另：\ntensor可在GPU进行高效并行计算，tensor可别分割成多个块，每个块可以在不同的GPU上进行计算，还有自动求导，形状变换，张量积，矩阵乘法等\nAI浪潮\n2012-奠基年\n\n“深度学习之父”的Jeffery Hinton教授带着他的两位学生Alex Krizhevsky和Ilya Sutskeverz，参加ImageNet大赛，设计的深度卷积神经网络AlexNet一举夺冠，开启了之后十多年神经网络AI的迅速发展。\n\n\nHinton团队参赛的时候，他们发现，如果用CPU来训练AlexNet，需要几个月的时间，于是他们尝试了一下英伟达的GPU，没想到，他们惊喜的发现，两张GTX580显卡只花了一周时间，就训练完成了1400万张图片。人工智能历史上算力的重大突破\n\n\n装载了CUDA的GPU GTX 580，从因为功耗和发热问题而臭名远扬的“核弹显卡”，一夜之间，变成了通往未来最重要的必要装备\n\n\n各大厂商，还有各个高校实验室，纷纷开始向英伟达订购GPU\n\n\n算力大部分时候，都是需要一种并行的向量计算。他们可能不需要像CPU那样去处理不同的程序，但是需要做很多简单但是非常繁重的计算任务\n乘胜出击，人类群星闪耀\n为了计算和人类的未来\n\n英伟达的硬件，仿佛就是新时代的内燃机，载着AI世代不断前进\n\n黄仁勋敏锐的意识到AI发展的重要性，开始加速打造为AI设计的GPU硬件\n\n\n2016 OpenAI之初，就将8块P100GPU的超级计算机DGX-1，送去（捐给）OpenAI的办公室\n\n\nDGX-1价值过百万美元，是老黄带领英伟达3000名员工，耗时三年打造轻量化的小型超算，计算和吞吐能力相当于 250台传统服务器，能把OpenAI 一年的训练时间，压缩到短短一个月\n\n\n在场的工程师和科学家纷纷签名，里面还有两位华人，附录参考里有现场照[5]\n\n\n\n\n\n\n这件事往往被解读为黄仁勋的眼光老辣，但对他本人来说，这无非是确保CUDA成为前沿科学研究者最习惯的框架的又一次尝试\n\n中国的人口红利创新\n\n\n2016年，种花家互联网金融搞得如火如荼，当年的网贷交易额接近2万亿\n\n\n2016年，种花家的房价开始翻番，人们为了摇号买房彻夜排队\n\n\n第二年，种花家网贷开始清盘，楼市迎来最严调控\n\n\n\n历史在奖励长期主义者\n\n遥遥领先\n为何GPU领先一众专用解决方案\n\n\n\n复杂处理由基本计算组成，指令复杂度越高，性能越好，处理器形态越多，单个处理器覆盖场景越小\n左侧灵活性通用性，右侧性能高能耗低\n\nDSA：具有一定程度的可编程，覆盖领域和场景比ASIC要大，但仍需要很多面向不同领域的DSA\n\n为什么今天大家选择的是GPU，而不是DSP？本质上来说还是编程环境的易用性。其次，GPU能更好地适配各种各样的任务。\n大规模的并行向量计算，是一种计算效率、编程性以及通用性的一个取舍，目前取舍最好的结果就是GPU。\n\n\n相较于ASIC和DSA，GPU每项测试都不能拿第一，但可以每项测试都在前10%，这对下游应用和厂商很有价值\n\nDSA-特定领域架构\nASIC-专用集成电路的芯片\n\n\n\nAI的算法迭代太快了，ASIC和DSA都很难跟上变化\n\n\n英伟达有符合它的架构，有支持编程的编译器，还能够给你提供一套完整支持的生态，所以才能在今天的环境中走到这样一个地位。英伟达能够跟随时代的发展趋势，不断去调整策略，赌赢了趋势\n\n\n极致的将来\n真正到最后的极致，软硬一体化才能达到最优。就如苹果的设备相对比较流畅。软件开发到一定阶段，一定会受制于硬件的发展。\n到底是先确定硬件平台，再向上构造软件生态的 bottom to top 过程合理，还是现有软件应用方案，然后 top to bottom 逐步 offload 业务，交由硬件加速合理？\n\nbottom to top，软件基本是消耗资源，达成多平台都支持，要么豪赌一个\ntop to bottom，时间要短一点，则是硬件同志们痛苦，战况往往惨烈。如 SmartNIC，AI 芯片爆发都是这类\n\n在硬件跟得上摩尔定律时，专心投钱做 multi-arch 软件，挑最快的顺风车搭（模型的爆发期阶段因为护城河差距，GPU顺风车竟然只有一辆）；当硬件魔法失败时，给钱给硬件厂商给你造一个独享的法拉利。\n大家怎么不去卷它\n为什么大家都在卷模型，不去卷老黄的市场呢？\n因为拿不到入场卷了，整个深度学习的框架已经是老黄的形状了。通过十数年时间CUDA的开发和社区的持续投入，CUDA和各类AI框架深度绑定。\n\n曾几何时，主机甲方爸爸也尝试过统一开放的API–OpenCL，给各家不同GPU提供一个规范，用以开发类似CUDA的通用计算软件框架， 但通用就意味着不一定好用。\n\n\n各大厂商GPU型号繁杂，驱动差异，质量参差不齐\n\n\n统一框架缺少针对特定厂商的针对性优化\n\n\n同等算力下，都比不过CUDA的速度。且开发复杂\n\nCUDA Toolkit，Nvidia GPU Computing SDK，Nsight等\n\n\n\n同为显卡厂商，AMD有没有解法？\n\n\n有生态平台ROCm，兼容不少计算框架，但效果不咋地\n\n很多东西理论上都支持 ROCm，但在实践中，当你尝试使用它时，你会遇到大大小小的错误，并且会崩溃或无法正常工作\n\n\n\n还要在源码级别对CUDA程序进行支持\n\n各AI框架还费尽心力编写一套支持框架干啥，那就只支持N家的就得了\n\n\n\n其它玩家呢\n\n\n谷歌的TPU也只能做到对自家的Tensorflow框架进行优化\n\n\nIntel的OneAPI还在起步态\n\n\n风光无限好\n当大家都在AI淘金时，英伟达成为了那个卖水的，关键是只有他家的水能解渴\n从OpenAI的第一台GPU，到之后微软帮OpenAI训练ChatGPT用的一万颗英伟达A100 GPU打造的超级算力中心，英伟达清楚并关注大模型的进展。它家是如今训练通用模型的最优解，市占率高达95%。GPU在AI工作中的能效是CPU的20倍，H100 GPU在训练大型语言模型方面的效率是CPU的300倍\n但护城河并非GPU本身，而是在软件部分\n\n\nCUDA软件框架，允许开发人员和用户在不同型号和连续几代GPU上运行相同的软件，实现无缝升级，并显著简化原始开发\n\n\n用户们还是会因为太熟悉自06年起步的CUDA的软件生态而不愿意选择非英伟达的GPU\n\n\n能风光多久，还是一个未知数\n\n\n在定价方面，英伟达为其他公司留出了很大的竞争空间\n\n\n有人估计H100芯片成本只需3200美元，但H100的售价高达3万美元\n\n\n“皮衣刀客”，就是对产品性能和价格的精准控制，花少钱买好货？不存在的！\n\n一款价钱不高的产品，在某方面的性能过于强大，老黄就会对该产品砍一刀，让它在其他方面非常弱鸡\n\n\n\n\n\n过于重视 AI 发展的英伟达，它的老本行显卡已经被其玩烂\n\n\n大客户蓄力自研\n\n\n大客户微软也正在与AMD合作共同自研人工智能处理器“雅典娜”（Athena），来制衡英伟达\n\n\n特斯拉的自研FSD芯片在2017年12月第一次试产，2018年7月获得认证后开始全面生产，英伟达和特斯拉的蜜月期，也只有短短几年而已\n\n\n\n\n既然脱钩断链，中国人力资本雄厚，准备另玩一个生态\n\n\n寄语\n\nCreativity Create Advantage\nInnovation Create Leadership\n\n反脆弱生存\n你说AI已经够他赚了，老黄又跑去蹭挖矿，蹭元宇宙、量子计算机。这就是很典型的反脆弱行为，不断去做额外的尝试，以便于在未来出现大的机遇或者大的混乱的时候，能够抓住机遇或者规避损失。\n\n\n真正的英雄主义，是认清了生活的不确定性后，努力从不确定性中收益 – 塔勒布\n\n反面的代表\n英伟达作风相反的一个很典型的例子，就是英特尔。\n\n2010年，当时的CPU王者英特尔曾传出计划收购英伟达，当时价钱不是问题，问题是该给黄仁勋一个什么职位。从AMD动心收购时就知道想收购老黄的梦想，还是别做梦了\n\n英特尔在十年前天下无敌，没有人能打过它。曾经英特尔有最好的架构，最好的工艺，谁都没有想到，仅仅是因为10纳米制程翻车了一次，整个都被打乱了。看起来很稳的，但实际上它的系统是很脆弱的，没有能抵抗黑天鹅的能力。对自己的工艺过度自信，按着线性外推的结果制定发展策略，一次翻车即遭遇了滑铁卢（原来强势的半导体制造工艺反落后于以台积电为代表的新兴势力，让AMD乘着台积电的工艺占据了优势）\n在竞争中寻找新的增长点\nDPU（Data Processing Unit）在投资领域又成为一个新的重要科技概念，也要拜英伟达的布局所赐。老黄在演讲中表示：DPU将成为未来计算的三大支柱之一，未来数据中心的标配是：CPU+GPU+DPU，分别用于通用计算，加速计算和数据处理。\n随着游戏，3D设计等多媒体图形软件的高速发展，要处理的工作量越来越大，越发复杂，CPU实在忙不过来，就有了GPU分担CPU的压力。DPU出现的道理也一样，也是因为CPU一些难以负担的复杂计算需要进行任务分工。在现在的云计算的趋势下，在数据中心等算力基础设施，提升设施效率，减少能耗浪费，降低成本是一个无法回避的问题。\n虚拟化，网络，存储和安全，是数据中心非常重要的工作，大量消耗算力资源。以网络为例，时时刻刻大量的数据在进行传输，主机在收发数据时，需要进行海量网络协议处理工作，根据传统的计算架构，这些协议都是由CPU完成的。要处理10G的网络包，约要占4个Xeon CPU的核，也就是说，业务程序尚未运行，仅仅进行网络数据包的处理，就要占用8核CPU一半的算力。现在数据中心网络不断升级，从10G到100G，甚至400G高速网络，这些开销如何承受。这些开销，甚至被称为Datacenter Tax。\n就有公司提出了SmartNIC（智能网卡）的概念，将网络协议处理的工作从CPU卸载到网卡上，以此分担CPU的负载。2015年，AWS率先探索这种模式，收购了芯片厂商Annapurna Labs，于17年推出Nitro系统，同年，阿里也发布了类似功能的神龙(X-Dragon)架构。\n2019年3月，NVIDIA花费69亿美元收购了以色列芯片公司Mellanox，英伟达将Mellanox的ConnectX系列高速网卡技术与自己的已有技术结合，在2020年推出两款DPU产品，从此GPU概念正式进入公众视野。DPU不仅仅是智能网卡，扩展将存储，安全和虚拟化等工作从CPU卸载到自己身上。\n\n05年，CPU和内存的硬件虚拟化问题逐渐解决，让虚拟化系统的性能有了大幅的提升，激活了云计算的发展前景和价值。虚拟化发展的过程，是硬件能力不断取代软件能力的过程\n\nDPU是一种新型可编程多核处理器，具有很高的算力，具备高性能网络接口，能告诉解析处理数据，并高效将数据传输到CPU和GPU。在网络协议处理，交换路由计算，加密解密，数据压缩等累活型基础层应用任务很擅长。\n英伟达的DPU是首款为AI和加速计算设计的DPU，提供数据中心级的软件定义和硬件加速的网络，存储，安全和管理等服务，为了构建更为强大的生态，NVIDIA专门给BlueField DPU打造了开发平台–NVIDIA DOCA（Data Center Intrastructure On A Chip Architecture），数据中心基础设施体系架构，利用行业标准API快速创建网络，存储，安全和管理服务，及AI/HPC(高性能计算)一系列应用程序和服务，从而迅速推出新产品。利用专业合理分工，促成数据中心能效最大化。\n功成名就的英伟达不再需要苦口婆心地向市场证明自己眼光的独到之处，创投圈已经蜂拥尾随。\n\n2020年，创投圈曾流行过一个笑话。\n“DPU是什么？”\n“支付宝到账，一亿元。”\n只要触发了DPU这个关键词，钱就会滚滚而来\n\n国外厂商中，Marvell、英特尔、AMD均研发了DPU或DPU的对位产品，国内亦涌现出一批DPU初创企业。\n参考\n1.泡泡网 DirectX支配游戏！历代GPU架构全解析 ↩2.搜狐 在诉讼与骂名中崛起的英伟达GPU ↩3.搜狐 GPU/CPU/DSP有什么区别 ↩4.百家号 英伟达的“反脆弱”式崛起 ↩5.英伟达 单机箱人工智能超级计算机赠予 OpenAI ↩6.知乎 CUDA是什么？以及GPU 与 CPU 性能对比：代码矩阵乘法示例 ↩7.Cornell University康乃尔大学 Roadmap: Understanding GPU Architecture ↩8.新浪 NVIDIA正在“垄断”AI！ ↩9.百家号 Tensor Core有多牛 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI","浪潮之巅"]},{"title":"游戏力","url":"/%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E5%8A%9B.html","content":"\nPlayful Parenting：用我们的爱，把孩子的杯子装满\n在充满幻境与想象的世界里，孩子可毫不费力地随意出入，对成人而言，游戏意味着休闲。但对孩子而言，游戏就是工作。\n在生物界，智慧越高的动物，玩游戏的时间越长。与动植物不同，人类对世界和自身的了解，都是通过主动探索和实践来进行的。人类童年期越来越长就是为了更多的游戏时间（学习时间）。\nTips\n\n如果你已经厌倦每天提醒孩子20次要带午餐，倒垃圾。下一次就试试就唱歌剧的方式来发出你的提醒。\n假想游戏：在你对孩子感到失望生气时，可以转换说，现在我们来假装你是我女儿，我是你爸爸。然后我在生你的气。这虽是眼前的事实，但顺从为游戏时，你的怒火会很快不见。\n\n\n\n游戏力\n游戏力所提倡的，就是父母与所有教育者，要充满渴望地与孩子建立联结，献出爱，鼓励与激情，甚至不要害怕重复。\n\n对于孩子自身的孤独感，大人最有可能的反应是生气或担忧，而看不见孩子内心深处所掩藏的痛苦。如果孩子在孤独状态中，就会不停地重复玩同一个游戏，横加斥责只会加重孤独感。\n很多父母会说，哪有那么多时间总和孩子玩游戏。但只要仔细算一算，会发现花在游戏上的投入和产出比非常高。你花在唠叨，发脾气不停催促上的时间，加在一起可比游戏时间多多了。\n\n\n\n禁止孩子玩游戏，就好像禁止承认说话和思考；\n\n\n根本不陪孩子游戏，就像同一个成人整天在一起，但却彼此不说一句话。\n\n\n多孩子参与\n两个孩子-同伴相处\n只要有2个孩子，就会有争吵：玩具，遥控器，大的那块蛋糕，都是争夺的对象。\n你变成箭靶有助于他们走出冲突。例如，打架时，你可以说：你们肯定打不到我，然后跑出房间，假装害怕的要命。\n争吵不公平时，你可以愁眉苦脸的说：我一次也没轮上，这才不公平呢。或者你抓起叉子（争吵物）说，这把叉子我谁也不给，谁也别想用。\n你的加入就像一个鱼饵，孩子有时回来咬，有时不会。如果他们来咬，那么很快就会把自己所关注的同伴相处问题引入到游戏中来。但更内核的是，孩子也要学习如何进行协商。\n\n还有一个有趣的蓄杯实践，面对两个你处理不了时，你可以先给每人一个拥抱，接下来给每个人提供5分钟的妈妈/爸爸时间（单独相处），然后建议大家吃点点心休息一下\n\n三个孩子-包容和排挤\n有3个以上的孩子，就会产生包容和排挤的问题，不应过度插手孩子的游戏或友谊。但也得确保没人被完全排挤或受到严重攻击。高标准是，不抛弃任何人，不放弃任何人。\n把孩子的杯子装满\n只有当大人没时间、精力或 不得其法而无法提供帮助时，孩子们才转而去攻击别人。\n手足相争的核心，是孩子提出的一系列深刻普遍的问题：我被爱着吗？被需要吗？有什么特别吗？我有力量吗？可以视作企图从别人怀里偷东西来蓄满自己的杯子。\n\n孩子是天生的达尔文主义者，资源有限，物竞天择。\n\n我们必须主动给孩子提供更多的蓄杯机会，让他们不必偷，抢。与一对一时做法一样，我们用关注，爱的情感和倾听来蓄满他们的杯子，给他们提供力量和热情，解决冲突，增强合作和包容，激发他们的创意来更好地共同游戏。\n如果他们因为互相竞争而受到惩罚，会把他们的杯子倒得更空。\n让孩子互相照顾，必要提供一些情感沟通的技巧。例如示范年长的孩子如何让弟妹偶尔来主导游戏，角色置换帮每个人都有机会把竞争情绪释放出来。年长的孩子通过假装比年幼者更慢，更弱的方式，可更深刻地理解自己的重要性和能力。\n公平？\n\n此段不是书上的内容，来自网络上的发言讨论。生一个的确省事，没有偏心难题。但手足最大的意义是世界上多了一个除了父母能相互无条件依靠，为你考虑的人。当然这是建立在良好的手足关系下，构筑不是竞争，而是互相依靠互相搀扶的手足关系。\n\n孩子想要的从来不是公平，而是偏爱。被偏爱的小孩是不会计较事事都绝对公平的。反而是不被偏爱的最大的诉求就是公平。\n越是展示公平，越是向小孩展示他们自己不是被偏爱的那个，反而都会不满。“被偏爱”是最大的安全感的来源，一个在亲情里拥有足够安全感的人，是不会计较细枝末节的公平与否的，是有能力主动去爱别人的（因为安全不缺爱，故在付出爱的过程中乐在其中）。\n如果被偏爱无法再父母这里获得，很多人终其一生都会陷入寻找被偏爱之中无法自拔，甚至为了追求那么一丝被偏爱，而在感情中受尽伤害。\n多子女家庭的家长要做的，不是公平，而是让每个子女觉得自己是被偏爱的那个。\n多子女家庭是可以同时偏爱每个孩子的， 如何建立被偏爱的&quot;错觉&quot;？\n那就是建立在特殊上，就是，有些事情父母只会对“我”做。\n\n如跟父母独处散步聊天谈心；某一方的卧室永远更大；表演单方面偷偷给某娃一些奖励，让其不要告诉对方（实际上每一方都有）\n\n父母身心疲惫怎么办？\n很多时候我们和孩子发脾气，并不是我们孩子做错了什么，而是我们当下的心情不好，压力大，情绪低落，看到亲人更容易发泄出来。这时，一定要先照顾好自己的情绪，让自己先好起来，才能去帮助孩子。\n用你自己的方式去放松一下：唱歌，逛街，和朋友聊天，刷剧。。。。只要和孩子告知自己的状态就可以，一定要明确和孩子说：爸爸/妈妈现在有点累，你先自己安排自己的事情，我休息一下再来找你。\n只要你和孩子及时明确表明你的情绪，孩子都会理解。孩子还从你身上学会了表达情绪，以后他有什么问题，也会清楚的说明。\n千言万语一句话\n众生皆苦，愿对孩子献上无条件的❤️\n有更多兴趣，还可以串联看看自己的另一篇文章，传送门在此：《童年成长寄语》。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"深度关系与精神资源","url":"/%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E4%B8%8E%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90.html","content":"\n本期内容主体来自于梁宁产品思维30讲的《02用户体验与结婚教练》课后彩蛋文章汇总节选\n\n\n一篇是《关系的深度–“纸牌屋”安德伍德与克莱尔夫妇的深刻关系》，此篇表述更为精彩\n\n\n一篇是《一个人的精神结构和他的精神资源》\n\n\n第一篇描述要强者；第二篇描述苟安者，这苟安者的出场头牌是慈禧。\n\n文章是节选，我再继续缩写节选警句，尊重原创。\n\n第一篇-深度关系\n《纸牌屋》中 安德伍德 与克莱尔夫妇独处镜头总是在一起吸烟或跑步，从来没有躺在床上松弛聊天的场景。与各自的情人在一起时，场景镜头则不同。克莱尔告诉情人亚当只能爱他偶尔一周，然后继续回到安德伍德身边。\n为甚？因为他们拥有更为深刻的关系。\n人生重要的天分是持续快乐的地方，每个人都没有办法拒绝自己真实的快乐，会不自禁的在自己喜欢的事情上花时间，不知不觉放一万个小时在那里。\n然而，成就最高的某批人，还有一个比快乐更重要的天分 – 痛苦！\n\n\n有人受不了山顶不是他，有人受不了成绩好过他，有人受不了“我想要的那张椅子上坐的不是我”的痛苦。\n向上爬、严格自律、殚精竭虑，这样日复一日，委实不快乐，但驱动他们的是痛苦，巨大的痛苦，让他们无法停下来。\n\n普通与杰出\n什么叫普通人？就是快乐没那么强烈，痛苦也没那么巨大。\n什么是杰出的人？就是如果他想要的那个得不到，就像万蚁噬心般痛苦。牺牲什么都可以，他必须得到他要的那个东西。\n当他不再痛苦的时候，也许他超越了，也许他就平庸了。\n所以，要想和一个优秀的人在一起，就要懂他真实的快乐，懂他真实的痛苦，并且给予他能量。\n深浅远近\n《纸牌屋》克莱尔的优雅聪慧得体，但内核，一直点燃她，推动她，折磨她的，是她自己勃勃的野心。\n\n情人亚当对克莱尔说：你一直要万众瞩目。不！我要举足轻重。\n\n安德伍德则和她有一样的痛，对于拥有这样巨大痛苦的人，欢愉显得短暂与廉价。他们一寸一寸前进，痛苦才能得到慰藉，只有他们二人，才能真实地分享痛苦，交换能量和灵魂，这就是人与人关系的深浅远近。\n这就像傻白甜是不可能搞定霸道总裁的，他可能真实地给了霸道总裁欢愉，可欢愉在霸道总裁这里相对脆弱。\n很多人一生关系中，最大的痛是与父母的关系。论获得能量，生命都是父母给的，父母的爱是一生最大的能量。可是若父母不能理解子女的快乐，不能理解子女的痛苦的时候，这种生生疏离的痛苦，是多么残酷，也是做儿女的要学会与生活和解的一面，双方的修行。\n第二篇-精神资源\n伊丽莎白和慈禧相差300年，但都单身主政40年，可成就不同，前者使英格兰文化达到顶峰（出现莎士比亚，培根等大师），国力猛进；后者虽周遭名臣涌现，难阻败局。\n\n\n伊丽莎白童年教师，是英国文艺复兴时期著名人文主义者罗杰·阿斯卡姆，伊丽莎白会六国语言，精神资源中有亚里士多德，凯撒，哥伦布\n\n\n慈禧的精神资源，是《资治通鉴》，以及戏文《挑滑车》、《四郎探母》，这些内容形成了她的世界观和精神结构。\n\n\n家庭注入的精神\n为什么家庭环境对人一生的影响，远大于他在学校里收到的教育？\n因为，家庭和教育，给予了一个孩子影响他一生的做事习惯与精神资源。孩子成年后一生的所有重要决策，不是基于数学考90分还是60分，而是从幼年开始的经历及有意无意被注入的精神资源。\n精神资源结构会主导他的好恶感和羞耻心，他的愿望，梦想和恐惧，继而对决定产生影响。\n小说三体的例子\n《三体》中致使太阳系毁灭的美女程心，拥有人类世界最高权柄，却连续两次做出错误决策，放弃对三体人的威慑，放弃曲率飞船研发。因为她不具备在宇宙生存竞争中，带领一个知识和技术不占优势的种族，劈开红海断腕而出，开辟自己的生存空间的精神结构，而书中的地球人温顺，麻木…\n分层视角来看人\n故事来自于一个结婚教练，用从表及里的剖析法来分析潜在配偶，助力姑娘们看准郎君嫁人。自底向上分为这么五层：\n\n\n感知层\n\n\n角色层\n\n\n资源层\n\n\n能力圈\n\n\n存在感\n\n\n存在感\n存在感是前面讲的精神结构/资源下最里面的部分，也是一个人持续让自己变化的内在动力。要深度关系在一起过，你要看他这个人对自己的存在感到底是一种什么样的自我设定和感知，他对自己能力圈的建设和经营，他对自己的资源的建设和管理。\n存在感的不同，驱使同在一批起跑线的青年创业者在若干年后做出不同产品，收获不同的结局。如校内网的王兴，抓虾的徐易容，豆瓣的阿北。三个人的能力圈和资源结构相较于05年都发生了很大变化，而不是当时都很斯文的干web2.0的文艺男青年。\n存在感即是他自己为什么而存在，什么状态下存在感得到满足，什么时候他不爽或烦躁，它是一种触发情绪和推动行动的开关。就像狮子为什么要去咬长颈鹿，其实它也很吃力，很勉强，被踢挨打有风险，但没办法，必须厮杀下去，吃饱了它才不这么费劲呢。\n一个人为什么奔波，焦虑，不安，机关算尽，上蹿下跳？其实皆因他的存在感还没有被满足，动物其实只要生存条件满足，就会很愉悦了。男人和女人又不一样，很多女孩在一段关系中如家庭中对方给了足够的确认感，就会很满足，但很多男人是不局限于此的。\n一个人是为了不断强化自己的存在感，在左冲右突中扩充了自己的能力圈。就如同动物在奔波和厮打中强健了自己的肌肉。换言之存在感满足了，能力圈就不会再扩充了，毕竟扩充能力圈其实是一件很痛苦的事情。\n\n存在感会驱使改变自己的能力圈，改变自己的资源，然后甚至改变自己外在的样子\n\n释疑\n角色框架\n每个人都生活在角色里，且被角色驯化，你是银行职员，军人，或是公务员，你会看到他身上角色的痕迹。大家日常就是角色的对接。\n资源结构\n出身背景，财富，人脉，精神资源，每个人都不一样。资源结构会推动每个人，去往不同的地方，未来可能会到不同的系统不同的角色中去。\n乔布斯的三个女人\n\n\n生了一个女儿却不愿给分一分钱的布伦南\n\n\n弥留写自传，潸然泪下坦诚是最美是首爱的蒂娜，向蒂娜求婚却被拒绝。蒂娜觉得用户体验太差了“忽视是一种虐待，爱上一个以自我为中心的人，这种痛苦难以置信”，或者你可以说，蒂娜没有那么爱乔布斯。\n\n\n分得百亿遗产的劳伦，陪了乔布斯27年，给了他稳定的情感支撑，她找到了消解糟糕体验的办法，也说的很真实。“他像激光那么专注，当他的光芒照耀到你身上，你就会沐浴着他的关爱。但是，当他的光芒转移到其它关注点的时候，你就会觉得人生非常黑暗”\n\n\n摆一个乔布斯在你面前，你能接住么？你要么？\n结语\n个人看法存在感是动态的，跟环境有关，但内核稳定，就像一个人价值观稳定，除非受什么强刺激\n你的存在感是什么？此时我在问自己，总结清楚后，或许我会补充到文章上\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"漫谈个人能力发展","url":"/%E6%BC%AB%E8%B0%88%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95.html","content":"\n开门见山\n\n聚焦\n恒心、方式与坚持\n升级\n\n聚焦\n按需所学（I will learn it when i need it）也许是一个不错的能力，但不应该成为有志工程师的价值观\n\n我会在我需要钱的时候再去进行投资，这句话套上如上的实用主义光环就不那么漂亮了\n\n用专注来换取效率，赢得差异性\n当今各个行业通常都很巨大，你不可能学习所有的东西，有所选择地把其学精。\n广度知识是深度研究的副产品\n\n只要你有足够的好奇心去跟从你的兴趣，你会发现最终真正掌握很多其它的东西\n看过网上一个例子：发言者说其爷爷是一个核物理学家，数十年在工作中获得这个领域中更深的知识让他成为了一个专家，同时也让他成为了一个优秀的数学家、不错的化学家、非常好的物理学家、还是一个合格的生物学家\n为啥 python 不支持自增\n学过 C、Java的人都了解自增运算符，但当你转用Python时，会发现没有此语法，好奇怪\n若你把它看作理所当然时，你会丧失一些深度对照理解的契机。这是因为 Python 和 C 语言概念上的一些差异所致\nPython 中，变量是以内容为基准而不是像 C 中以变量名为基准，所以只要你的数字内容是 5，不管你起什么名字，这个变量的 ID 是相同的，同时也说明了 python 中一个变量可以以多个名称访问，如\nb=5a=5id(a)==id(b)a is b 结果是 True\n这样的设计逻辑决定了 Python 中数字类型的值是不可变的，改了 a，b 也直接变，这当然不是你希望的\n恒心、方式与坚持\n\n\nStay Hungry、Stay Foolish（坚守痴心）\n\n\n学习并非快乐，要坚持。有兴趣，去琢磨和钻研，慢慢才变成会学习，最后才可能发展出一定的乐趣。这是身体上的内啡肽奖励，每个人的多样性是不同的，学习风格也不同，找到你自己的这份奖励\n\n\nflowchart LR\n\t行为习惯 --> |决定|思考方式\n\t思考方式 --> |框定|发展路径\n\n迟滞岁月磨损的唯一办法是始终保持思考，怀抱欣喜之心学习\n\n升级\n$工作结果 = 思维方式 * 热情 * 能力$\n能力一般有如此发展路径：\nflowchart LR\n按要求行事 --> 领会意图+主动回报 --> 抓住重点克服困难 --> 实现预测应对变化 --> 创造性地执行\n在创造性地执行之前，都可以说在迈向一个词：靠谱\n职业通道评审中常见的问题\n\n技术细节了解不足、核心数据关注不够、视野不够、对公司相关系统、行业动态了解不足\n\n只了解框架或仅关注业务层实现，专业深度了解不足\nCase by case 地解决问题，缺乏提炼归类。人类学习能力其实就是抽象能力\n\n\n知识分享不足\n设备选型也是可以加强了解的，例如 GPU 机型不同型号的算力\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["职涯"]},{"title":"犬儒主义","url":"/%E7%8A%AC%E5%84%92%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89.html","content":"\n犬儒主义（Cynicism）是个外来词，中文里本来没有现成的对应词汇，通常将它理解为讥诮嘲讽、愤世嫉俗、玩世不恭。来源于古希腊犬儒学派学者主张的哲学思潮。早期的犬儒是极其严肃的,提倡对道德的无限追求。随着犬儒理念的流行，犬儒主义的内涵发生了微妙的根本变化。\n\n早期的犬儒主义者是根据自身的道德原则去蔑视世俗的观念；\n后期的犬儒主义者依旧蔑视世俗的观念，但是却丧失了赖为准绳的道德原则。\n\n\n大家都是狗，只是一部分人认识到自己是狗，一部分不自知，认知到的这批就是那批犬儒主义者。\n\n理想主义 VS 虚无主义\n后期的犬儒主义者普遍有这样的想法：既然无所谓高尚，也就无所谓下贱。既然没有什么是了不得的，因而也就没有什么是要不得的。这样想法的结果是，对世俗的全盘否定变成了对世俗的照单全收，而且还往往是对世俗中最坏的部分的不知羞耻的照单全收。于是，愤世嫉俗就变成了玩世不恭。\n犬儒一词的演变证明，从愤世嫉俗到玩世不恭，其间只有一步之差。一般来说，愤世嫉俗总是理想主义的，而且是十分激烈的理想主义。玩世不恭则是彻底的虚无主义。偏偏是那些看上去最激烈的理想主义者反倒很容易转变为彻底的虚无主义者。简单不负责任的解释是：犬儒不只是在过去饱尝辛酸，犬儒是对未来过早地失去希望\n\n现代犬儒\n现代犬儒主义是一种“以不相信来获得合理性”的社会文化形态。现代犬儒主义的彻底不相信表现在它甚至不相信还能有什么办法改变它所不相信的那个世界。犬儒主义把对现有秩序的不满转化为一种不拒绝的理解，一种不反抗的清醒和一种不认同的接受。\n“说一套做一套”形成了当今犬儒文化的基本特点。“世界既是一场大荒谬，大玩笑，我亦惟有以荒谬和玩笑对待之。”\n超然解释\n犬儒思想并不带有自我罪孽感。在它那里，怀疑正统成为一种常态思想。无论从认知还是从道义来说，不相信都是常态，相信才是病态；相信是因为头脑简单，特容易上当。犬儒思想者也不再受恐惧感的折磨，因为他知道人人都和他一样不相信，只是大家在公开场合不表明自己的不相信罢了。\n\n上面的后半部分的评说比较有意思，包括大荒谬\n\n逗趣不如好奇\n社会公共话题中在当前的网络时代通常跟随着犬儒主义，不过除非能提出一些我们想象不到的视角或者思考，否则这个路数是没有多少存在价值的。最后引用一句话结束这篇日志，《从优秀到卓越》一书作者考林斯说他年轻时在大学教书，他想请教如何成为一个更好的老师。对方给他的建议让他获益终身：吉姆，你花太多时间想逗趣，为什么不反过来，多点好奇呢？（You spent too much time trying to be interesting, why don’t you become interested for a change?) 如果没有好奇心去倾听，去研究，去看不同观点不同视角，而仅带着成见，带着犬儒心态去看待公共话题，是不能对公众产生多少帮助的。\n其实那段英语的原话是：\n\n“It occurs to me, Jim, that you spend too much time trying to be interesting,” he said. “Why don’t you invest more time being interested.”\n\n上面下划线是别人文章里的话，日志的主题是为了记载概念而不是评论问题，虽然我不认同里面“带着成见”这样的表述，不过实在是避免只引用这句英语就结束显得突兀，摘抄要完整。\n后记\n从我2020年重贴这篇日志时，我的动机是记忆力不清楚犬儒主义概念的内涵了。为什么当初行文要找出英文原话，应该是觉得\n\n句子经典，迎合了自己当时自学模式识别的努力背景\n不符合英文对话语境，应该不是原文。我当时估计挺较真，对英文也还敏感\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"理财的底牌","url":"/%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%95%E4%BB%93.html","content":"\n每一种金融资产，都有底层资产，买股票，就是买这个公司的股份；买国债，就是把钱借给国家；买MBS，就是买了银行的应收账款，也即买了银行的资产。\nMBS资产证券化\n\n你的贷款是大家的资产+收益，企业债亦同理\n\n银行是不满足于你缓慢还款赚点利息的，要提高资金运用效率和减少期限错配风险。放给你房贷后，后续操作是把你的借条让点利卖出去，买到这张借条的公司相当于赚了，只是条件是需要30年才到手 （这家公司可以是保险公司，也可以是理财公司）。\n他们也不会等30年，把买到的这一堆借条作为一个整体打包投放在金融市场上，举例总额100亿，比如民生发展基金AE，谁都可以来买，标注为低风险，年利率2.75%，然后很快手里有闲钱的客户就买光了这100亿。假如这批理财计划除去要付给客户的利息，将净赚10亿到手（100万贷款30年，利息3.95%，利息共有70w。刨掉提前还贷，100亿赚10亿还是很有保障的），实际收益远超10亿，因为支付给用户的钱，也不是一下付清的，周转流动还有额外的收益。\n\n滚动执行，例如先留下5亿缓慢支付客户利息，然后拿剩余的钱，继续去银行那里买借条，借条卖出去银行又可以放贷了，买回来后又可以发基金债权了。雪球越买越大，直到每个人都背负到债务为止。\nMBS流程如下：\n\nsequenceDiagram\n    购房者->>银行:还款计划\n    银行-->>购房者:贷款\n    银行->>SPV:应收账款\n    SPV-->>银行:证券化\n    SPV->>发售机构:理财产品\n    发售机构-->>SPV:资金\n    发售机构->>散户:理财产品\n    散户-->>发售机构:投资\n    散户->>保险集团:保费\n    保险集团-->>散户:风险损失\n\nSPV:Special Purpose Vehicle：特殊目的载体，为实现破产隔离创设的法律实体。它是接受发起人的资产组合，并发行以此为支持的证券的特殊实体。整个资产证券化运行机制中的最核心的设计，风险隔离机制，SPV一般由信用级别较高的机构来做。\n基本操作流程就是从资产原始权益人（即发起人）处购买证券化资产，以自身名义发行资产支持证券进行融资，再将所募集到的资金用于偿还购买发起人基础资产的价款。\n\n打包的证劵，对散户来说，就是买理财产品；钱流向发售证券的机构，在通过一系列的机构，流向银行。这些证劵的投资本金和收益，就等银行收到房贷之后，用这笔钱来兑付。对金融机构来说，就是融资，有抵押品的融资，抵押品可以是自己的应收账款，或者不动产，或者未来收益的现金流等，几乎是万物皆可打包。与MBS类似的理财产品很多，如有ABS（底层资产比MBS更多元一些，如高速公路的过路费），不过现在不叫ABS了，叫REITs。还有CDO（担保债务凭证，主要以各种现金流为底层资产，打包成证券，如别人欠自己的债务，保险公司未来收的保费等）。\n万一购房者不还房贷了，买MBS的钱，银行拿什么来兑付呢？谁来承担这个风险？大部分投资者就看看理财产品的名称，也看不底层资产是个啥。保障金融产品的保险，名称上有个专门术语，叫信用违约互换，简称CDS（credit default swap），保险公司当然不是无偿做这个的，你要交保护费（或者由SPV交了）。2014年前后，P2P产品也有看展CDS，不过很快被监管部门叫停了。\n很多项目，前几年投入大量资金，该经营收钱的时候，撞上疫情，没有盈利，就收不回早期的成本，早期的债务该怎么还？历史不会简单的重复，但是却惊人的相似，名字大家都知道了或臭了就会发明一个新名词，REITs其实就是多年前的ABS，MBS这个名字可能也不会出现，而是换个名字再来。债务可能会打包成各种理财产品，城投债只会是个开始，更别说无实体的数据资产也允许并表装入城投平台。\n以书面风格再讲一遍\n5年期以上贷款，房贷占比很高。众所周之它是最优质的金融产品，也是银行的最爱。为了最大程度发挥资金的使用效率（循环使用），一个叫做RMBS的次级金融产品就诞生了，直译过来就是住房贷款抵押支持证劵。简单来说银行将住房贷款包装成资产包经评级机构评级后，卖给其他金融机构，投资人的来源主要是保险公司，大型的资产管理公司，社保或者其它的公募基金。\n举例子一般保险公司亦非常喜欢这样的底层资产，一是时间足够长，收益非常稳定，期限和保险类产品匹配，作为底层资产设计成保险类产品，如分红险，全能险，卖还给投保者。银行把个人住房贷款以资产包的形式卖给了保险公司，换回资金，再利用这笔资金用于继续发放个人住房贷款业务。循环往复，相得益彰。\n通过杠杆投资，优先劣后分级，机构一般都能获得比较稳定且安全的投资回报。中国这些年的RMBS产品规模是逐年升高。20年是4011亿，21年5000亿，截止22年末，存量规模差不多在1万亿左右，体量不小，机构多，已经产品金融化，关联化，不同的金融机构高度融合，非常难以剥离。\n净值法银行理财\n\n当前债券型理财的估值方法，已经由摊余成本法全面转向了市值法。\n\n成本摊余法基本上按照几年确定能偿还，做出来的斜率直线。\n\n之前债券基本从不违约，自从2014年开始首例违约，14~18年间违约数量和规模也较小，但在2018年后，数量开始激增，所以再用摊余成本法去估值，对后面的投资者就非常不公平了，后面赎回的人就是来填坑的。\n\n前几年的理财产品都刚兑了，其中有一部分就是挪用的现在还没到期的理财产品的本金。\n\n2018年资产新规后，去刚兑，要求银行理财净值化。债券是标准化产品每天都可以交易，二级市场上的定价能及时反映债券的风险。例如3年期票息5%的公司债，假设是5年前的恒大，如日中天大而不倒，那时债券都能卖到101元，但是现在恒大未到期的债券在市场上20块都不到，市值法是可以立刻反映债券风险。\n摊余成本法是一路向上固收思路，净值法的波动是比较大的。如债券发行主体信用发生波动，也会受到流动性和利率影响的波动。债券熊是资金面比较紧张的时候，债券价格下跌。赎回踩踏也会加剧波动，加大亏损。\n估值大幅回撤\n你信22年是资金面紧张的原因吗？我不太信各路传媒说的，我更信大额赎回为首发导火索（之于大额赎回来自哪里，就没人说了。要么知晓信用波动内情想从窟窿提前爬出来，要么杠杆耍起来受不了各类风吹草动）。\n\n\n10年期国债收益率，这个是债券市场的锚定标的。债券收益率和债券价格是反向关系，收益率飙涨，就意味着整个债券市场的价格出现大跌\n\n\n\n十年期国债收益率从上涨后，波动不大，理财净值又开始慢慢爬坡\n\n债券市场波动引发理财产品估值大幅回撤，但11月11日以来十年期国债利率上行，幅度占有12%，相比2013年钱荒，2016年债市去杠杆，调整幅度其实小得多。但二级资本债，信用债等理财公司配置重点成为重灾区，收益率普遍上行50-60个基点。不分杠杆高的基金几乎抹平全年收益，收益为负的理财产品占比近50%。\n2022年以来一直维持低利率，债市加杠杆现象抬头，导致整个市场对“利率反转”极为敏感。增厚固收一般有三个途径：信用下沉，拉长久期，加杠杆。\n在经济下行背景下， 投资者一般会控制久期，对信用下沉也有顾虑，故普遍采用加杠杆的方式增厚收益，市场整体杠杆水平偏高。市场上资金极度充沛，MLF都不再是市场短期资金定价的锚，市场机构普遍借短买长，运用杠杆套利。\n疫情、房地产是困扰我国经济的重要因素，但反而是债券牛市的支撑，随着疫情防控措施优化，金融稳地产措施出台等超市场预期，开始触发本轮债市调整。可市场对流动性变化过度反应，市场利率整体反转，基金专户大量抛售债券，下跌-赎回-抛售的通道构建出来，触发广大投资者跟随，市场巨额赎回发生，各家理财公司纷纷发布公告解释安抚客户情绪，然而金融机构的可信任度是要存疑的（管理比较严的保险资金实体可能好过银行），谁跑得慢谁慢慢爬坑，封闭期理财的着实叫挣扎无门，洗干净脖子享受。\n调整存量房贷利率\n降低存量房贷是一件困难的事情，因为牵扯的利益方多，难协调\n\n如果这时有人说我要提前还贷，100w（30年共220w到总还款额），加上违约金一共还120万，可银行已经150w把这笔借条卖出去了，买到借条的人把它220w的价值卖给市场了，相当于100w的收益不存在了，人少银行可以闷声吃这个亏，因为利润兜得住，已卖的也没事，但要从银行这个窗口处控制已卖出的借条的风险爆发太快。\n有人本来能赚到的钱没赚到，是可能发不出工资的\n\n金融机构自身毫无动力，所以当住建部喊话时，金融机构根本不鸟。做出调整，银行利率、保险公司费率、公募基金收益率都要变化，投资人的预期收益率就会降，关键这些投资人还不是普通的投资人，都是境内外的大型财团或者国资背景的投资人。\n这种一连串的政策调整，不仅仅牵扯到央行一家，乃是多监管方协调。另外，银行自身的经营压力，存款金额不断攀升，放贷却放不出去，这几年放给开发商钱也难收回来，放不出去的存款就是负债，银行的ROE就靠个人住房贷款这种优质业务在续命。\n23.8.31强力靴子落地\n最高层有介入，作为行动方案的统一制定者，消除各部门的隔阂，才得以持续的推进。才出现831官宣政策，要求9.25号前落实。\n真实可能是为了缓解因坏账率激增和提前还贷压力而导致的银行经营的萎缩。23年法拍房比去年增了20%，30.4w套，住宅占法拍增量的59%，成交只有5.2w套，远不及增长的速度（拍不出去）。\n\n\n一旦法拍房低于原评估值的70%，就可能意味着银行会承受损失，银行坏账的绝对数值在攀升。\n\n\n提前还款也意味着优质业务萎缩，收入减少，存款增加，双重打击。当前的数据可能就体现了这种风险趋势。\n\n\n非对称吊诡\n上一周非对称降息，市场哗然，股市又是一片韭绿。不调5年期LPR，也就是手心手背都是肉。\n\n一是降低了资本市场的影响，对冲MLF带来的收益率下降的预期，投资人对资本市场会有些交代。\n二是对外展示了我们没有通过行政干预利率市场，LPR的降低是银行之间的市场行为，和政府无关，所以面子里子我们都有了。\n第三点5年期LPR不变，可以保持国债收益率稳定，缓冲美债收益率压力。\n\n存量房贷利率政策\n加点央行壁上观\n当年是你们加的点数，现在你们只能去调低加点数，将降低存量房贷的皮球踢回给了各地政府和银行，这次也由你们自己来决定，央行做壁上观。\n你的房贷利率能降多少，取决于两个关键因素：\n\n贷款发放时间\n以及所在城市首套房贷利率政策下限。\n\n影响降幅多少的“分水岭”就是2022年5月15日，因为自那日起，全国首套房贷利率政策下限调整为LPR减20个基点。\n若那时你贷款所在城市首套房贷利率下限与全国下限一致，而你当时的贷款利率是LPR加50个基点，那么就会有两种情况。\n\n\n第一种情况，如果贷款是在2022年5月14日或之前发放，这次利率最低能调整到LPR，可下降50个基点；\n\n\n第二种情况，如果贷款是5月15日及以后发放的，最低能调整到LPR减20个基点，可下降70个基点\n\n\n高线城市高高在上\n当然也有城市首套房贷利率下限与全国下限不一致。拿北京来说，从房贷利率“换锚”伊始，就在全国政策下限LPR的基础上“因城施策”加了55个基点。如你当时在北京正赶上信贷供给偏紧、利率走高，合同利率签订为LPR加135个基点。这次则可和银行协商，最多可降低的加点幅度是80个基点，降到签订合同当年北京首套房贷利率政策下限，即LPR加55个基点，sigh！\n幸哉无需客户申请，是本次的效率之举。真是个人自发去跟银行协商，那银行的柜面文书工作都得忙死。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"生活好看吗","url":"/%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E5%A5%BD%E7%9C%8B%E5%90%97.html","content":"\n\n牛角尖视角\nQ : 你看这张照片好看吗？\nA : 不好看。\nQ : 那缩小看全部呢？\nA : 诶[éi]，我觉得挺好看。\nQ : 谁他么会这么看照片啊？\nA : 嗯，你说的对！我只是用我们经常看事情/问题/生活的方式去看照片而已。\n\n用视频表达更形象\n\n可惜抖音视频都有防盗链，引入进来用不了多久就失效了\n\n视频传送门\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"用户思维","url":"/%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n要的不是产品\n要的是打造卓越表现的用户\n不是打造卓越的产品，而是卓越表现的用户\n\n在一个场景里实现\n打造用户的能力和渴望（意愿）是KeyPoint\n\n设计一些方法建立用户的信心（难以掌握的技能，需要做技能/功能的拆分）\n排除障碍，对用户的支持和鼓励，也是非常重要的点\n\n\n\n渴望营造\n\n清除障碍，激动人心的分段路径设计\n消耗用户认知资源的产品设计是失败的, don’t let 用户 think(思考，记忆)\n即学即用式学习，优于储备式学习\n\n\n不是一杆子打死的，储备式学习很有用（例如外科医生）\n\n重视情绪\n\n\n\n用户往往无法分层次说出他的体验，能展现只是他的情绪\n情绪是底层操作系统\n人欲即天理，做产品要尊重人欲\n\n\n理性知识的调用需要时间和思考，而用户情绪却是一瞬间的体验\n\n用户本质的心理诉求\n\n贪嗔痴\n愉悦、不爽、愤怒、恐惧\n\n愉悦、不爽 是一对，关键词是【 满足】\n愤怒、恐惧 是一对，关键词是 【侵犯】\n\n\n\n\n用户是否通过我们的服务得到了满足，持续的确定性满足，会上瘾\n\n需求怎么看\n痛点\n不是难受，是恐惧；怕长胖\n爽点\n即时满足；火锅酣畅淋漓\n痒点\n满足虚拟自我；网红餐厅，拍照\n升空来看\n\n\n产品能力是一种建立信息秩序，再而建立内心秩序的学习建立认知框架的过程，得到结构化的体系（大而整）。\n\n\n在一片纷杂里，知道自己该放弃哪些点，抓住哪些点，慢慢建立起掌控（知轻重）\n\n\n如果我们不追求这些，与人类形而上的进步能力是违背的，没有这个过程，就没有人类的进步，相对而言也是个人的进步\n打造产品的过程\n\n\n打造产品的过程，是一种定义用户，定义价值，打造增长的过程。\n\n\n价值主张决定了产品和服务的边界。\n\n\n用户画像+故事地图+精益迭代 是一个靠谱的路数\n\n\n营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚\n内容略，想想网红Apps或产品，即是一个道理\n\n还可以参阅另一篇记录 产品意识 的老文章的同名章节\n\n误区提醒\n\n以输出服务的视角而非输出产品的视角来引领工作，能助你看到更正确的目标，多数情况下用户要的并不是一个你要售卖的产品，而是一个产品带来的服务。\n\n\n常规的例子就是钻孔和钻机的比喻\n\n\n把解决方案看作是对问题的定义，相当高几率处理的就是一个被误解的问题\n\n意识到问题是什么，这依赖于常识、经验、归纳内省、反向思维、用户意识和敏捷意识\n\n\n避免成为铁锤人，多用拿来主义\n\n内省归纳\n\n\n推演大家都能用都会用的基本需求，很多个性需求都是不必做的\n\n\n不要尝试解决所有的问题/服务所有的客户，用户如果连某些最简解决方案理解能力都没有，那么他们遇到的问题就不仅仅在你们这\n\n隧道开关灯，你只需提醒你的灯亮着吗？电池电的问题他们自己会看护\n\n\n\n跳出知识诅咒，逼迫自己变成傻瓜看待产品（立体思维模型）\n\n\n本质思考，Stay Hungury，Stay Foolish\n\n\n\n经验可贵，常识无价\n\n后记\n这篇的主要触发点还是最近听的一堂电子课，用户思维，兼具一些梁宁的内容，与几年前的产品意识，是一种呼应。现在的自己写东西可能会更加精简，一些激情式的表达更加少见了。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"电子游戏史话","url":"/%E7%94%B5%E5%AD%90%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E5%8F%B2.html","content":"\n最近看了一本《游戏学》，涉嫌给游戏洗地，想必是学界的人写的，更多冷门的东西都有人作书立传，更别说这么大的产业了，一天就看完了 ，权且当做了解技术之外的历史也是挺好的，还是有些框架性的收获，能解一些惑。\n游戏发展史\n美国篇\n\n美国游戏历史发展连贯，自1947年第一个电子游戏（阴极射线管娱乐装置）诞生，第一个主机游戏（1967 Brown Box），电脑游戏（1962，太空战争），第一个网游，第一个手游（1994 俄罗斯方块，贪吃蛇还要靠后），多类游戏均诞生在美国。期间经历过家用游戏平台重量不重质的雅达利崩溃，让位让日本游戏主机厂商有了居上的契机。总体上美国游戏产业始终健康发展，形成主机，端游，手游三足鼎立局面，也在主要的主机游戏中形成任天堂，索尼及微软三足鼎立的稳定态势。\n\n苹果两位创始人都曾是雅达利的游戏开发工程师，他们在1974年一同合作，仅用4天就完成了一个《打砖块》的雏形游戏–《突出重围》-- 关卡升级玩法机制的越狱游戏，首次加入了斜角度物体运动概念，反弹两侧墙壁造成连锁撞击效果\n\n第一个电脑游戏\n\n当时的电脑大多借由打孔卡或磁带来输入及输出资料、令人感到乏味，而PDP-1有显示器的设备，使MIT的几个学生下决心基于PDP-1开发游戏，玩家需各自控制一架可发射导弹的太空飞行器争取击毁对方。为了兼顾真实性与可玩性，进行了各种设计，例如使用实际的星图制作背景并设计星等、限制太空船的鱼雷数量及燃料、只在恒星周遭有重力的设计、以及可进行超空间跳跃等设计。当时PDP-1价值120000美金，对一般民众而言过于昂贵，使《太空大战》难以成为商品。但游戏程序在美国各学校广为流传。\n\n第一个主机游戏\n1955 年，在美国国防设备承包商劳拉公司工作的拉尔夫·贝尔接到了一个任务——制造世界上最好的电视机。就在完成任务的过程中，他突然有了一个非常新颖的想法，此时的他并不知道他的这个想法在后来改变了整个娱乐行业，这就是“电视游戏”。但早期造价太贵定无市场。\n11年后的1966年，彩色电视机的出现和电子原件材料价格的下降使得美国的电视机数量已经达到4000万台之巨。基本家家有一台，但只能坐等晚上6点收看”新闻联播“，贝尔认为这其中大有可为，把有些频道用来打游戏杀时间最为合适。\n从1966年9月开始，贝尔就开始和同事利用空闲时间来制作原型机，最初的原型机12月造出来，可以在电视屏幕上显示和移动一条垂直的线，这款简单到发指的游戏得到了公司主管的2500美元资助，第七次迭代机出现，就是下图的brown box\n\n\n外壳采用实木材质，通体棕色，全世界仅有一台。内置了数款游戏，包括国际象棋，手球，高尔夫球，乒乓球等，甚至还顺带设计出世界第一款设计游戏，并配套开发了世界第一款光枪外设。靠电池驱动，已具备后代游戏机的一些特征，两个控制器，使用卡带等，但这个卡带并无存储读写能力，只是通过控制不同电路闭合切换集成在主机电路板上的程序，相当于一个开关而已。\n\n商业化的Odyssey\n不过这个游戏机后来加以改进并1972年商品化，就是Odyssey，售价100美元，Odyssey于1974年停产，短短两年售出33w台，外加8万把光枪，算是差强人意，当年媒体不发达，宣传出了一些偏差，导致很多人误认为Odyssey只有搭配厂商生产的电视才能运行，一定程度影响了主机的销量。那时的游戏也简陋，有些球类游戏计分板没有，靠玩家用纸笔手动计分。产品包装里除了主机卡带，还附带筹码卡牌之类的玩意，：）\n\n奥德赛能够在屏幕上显示三个正方形的点和一条垂直线。两个点由两个玩家控制，第三个由系统本身控制。主控制台有两个旋钮，一个旋钮在屏幕上移动垂直线，另一个旋钮可调节计算机控制的点的速度。也就是我们熟悉的“PONG”《乓》的最初版本。\n\n虽然Odyssey没登陆日本，但这一新兴事物引起了日本老牌玩具厂商的注意，这就是任天堂。\n独立章-主机篇\n美国市场以主机游戏为主，2017年主机游戏占全部游戏平台比例为47%，此前主机游戏占比更高。\n\n1970年代是街机的黄金时代，这一时期代表作有雅达利的《乓》和《电脑空间》，南宫梦的《吃豆人》，太东公司的《太空侵略者》等。雅达利在1972年诞生，不仅仅是游戏开发商，还是街机和主机硬件制造商，其它厂商也为雅达利主机做游戏，这种灵活方式导致厂商可自由地开发和发布游戏，充斥在市场中相当一部分游戏质量非常糟糕，1982年，质量低劣和数量供大于求，玩家对这些游戏彻底失去兴趣，雅达利从此一蹶不振。\n\n街机游戏的诞生\n1971年，美国计算机工程师诺兰在《宇宙战争》基础上，设计了一个叫做《电脑空间》的游戏，规则和《宇宙战争》大同小异，玩家控制自己的宇宙飞船用导弹攻击对方的船，但具有引力的场所由屏幕中央的黑洞变成了移动的星体。他把一台与装好《电脑空间》的电脑，装上外壳和可以投币控制的开关，放在了一家提供弹珠游戏的酒吧，这就是世界上第一台商用投币式电子游戏机，也就是我们所说的街机。他坚信电子游戏不仅仅属于计算机技术的领域，一定具有巨大商业价值，创立了人类历史上第一个电子游戏公司—雅达利（Atari Inc，这词来源于日语中的围棋术语–”叫吃“）\n\n不可思议的成功\n雅达利公司成立的一个月后，就开发完成了《乓》- Pong，放到酒吧里第二天老板便打来电话：你们的机器出故障了，一个币都投不进去。赶过去打开机箱，发现是因为机器早就被1200个25分硬币塞满了，游戏一天内就征服了酒吧的客人，还让很多从来不去酒吧的人，专程来酒吧一睹芳容。因为雅达利前期资金不足和申请专利进度较慢，市场被抄袭者占领了一大部分（2/3），《乓》的山寨版也是电子游戏史上最早的盗版游戏。\n家用机宇宙\n雅达利的专利被他人捷足先登，没办法只能继续创新，维持自己在电子游戏市场的领先地位，促成了家用游戏机的兴盛，他也在1977年发售了雅达利2600，打破了游戏与机身的绑定，开创了游戏主机和游戏软件分开销售的商业模式，仅1981年，雅达利2600的销售额就突破了10亿美元，1982年甚至接近30亿美元，整个生命周期全球发售3000w台，共2687个游戏在这个平台上发售。\n任天堂和《大金刚》-- 日本登场\n\n1981年任天堂发售《大金刚》-Donkey Kong，玩家扮演水管工跳跳人（Jumpman）跳过场景里不断滚来的木桶，躲过火焰锤子等障碍物，爬上层层梯子，从大猩猩”大金刚“手里，解救跳跳人的女友宝琳（Pauline），这是游戏史上第一个可进行跳跃动作的游戏。\n其影响力之深远，不是因为游戏本身，而是让任天堂在该作成功后，坚定了在电子游戏领域持续发展的决心，从传统玩具公司转型，巨大投入电子游戏产业和创新，推动了几次重大变革。\n1983年发售Family Computer家用游戏机时（当时性能最好，价格最便宜，8位CPU专用图像处理器PPU），增添了划时代的游戏控制器设计- 十字方向键，几乎为所有家用游戏机沿用。大金刚的主角色跳跳人在83年的街机游戏《马里奥兄弟》中正式改名为马里奥，走向了成为游戏明星的第一步。1985年9月13发售的《超级马里奥兄弟》，使其成为一个传奇。将卷轴玩法（2D水平面上使用各种方式令游戏角色穿过障碍，到达终点的游戏方式，画面会随着角色移动而平移）进一步发扬光大。融合了跳跃，踩踏攻击，角色变身，多重组合关卡，道具收集，隐藏奖励，位置传送，迷宫，水下场景，Boss战等多种系统创新，加上精准的动作设计，成为完成度极高的集大成作品。\n任天堂对游戏设计，制造，发行的整个流程，都进行了精细化的监督和管理，排除了浑水摸鱼的小型厂商和粗制滥造的游戏作品的出现，对游戏品质的提升有非常明显的作用，成为行业奉行准则。\n\n游戏厂商需向任天堂交高额的平台授权费\n加盟厂每年发售的游戏数量有限制，内容需经任天堂审核通过才允许发售\n卡带制造和销售都由任天堂官方全权代理\n\n世嘉与刺猬索尼克\n\n世嘉公司在88年也推出了游戏主机MD（搭载两块CPU和专用PCM声音处理系统），其战略布局是重点经营海外市场，决定创造一个可以和马里奥分庭抗礼的游戏角色，角色特征要反映MD的性能–快速，设计出了刺猬索尼克，仍然是卷轴平台游戏模式，但突出的是”高速冲刺“理念。\n任天堂为了应对MD的冲击，90年11月推出了16位游戏机，在控制器中首创了肩部按键L/R, 维持了竞争优势。\n一众历史开创作品\n\n89年已经有《波斯王子》，经典关卡设计和出众的分镜头动画\n\n90年已经有《F-Zero》赛车游戏，伪3D效果\n\n92年《重返德军司令部3D》，经典的第一人称设计游戏，打下了现在游戏图像产业的地基\n\n93年的《神秘岛》，预渲染技术现在或许已过时，当时画面上的确超越了所有对手\n索尼PS逼上梁山\n\n90年代初，技术领先的街机游戏开始了从2D游戏到3D游戏的技术革新，家用游戏机显得技术落后，几乎无法完美移植任何主流街机作品，这时需要破坏进入者出现。92年Sony原计划与任天堂合作生产CD-ROM版SFC新主机，但得到了任天堂单方面撕毁合作协议的消息。此时，PlayStation已经基本完成，如果此时退出面临巨额损失，于是索尼独立进军游戏产业，PS搭载32位CPU，独立拥有GPU，带有1MB显存，运算能力每秒150万多边形，24位色彩取样深度，可显示16.7百万色，研发带独特震动功能和双摇杆的控制器，是第一部真正拥有成熟3D处理能力的家用游戏机，家用机进入了第五代。\n索尼早期单方游戏研发实力较弱，故采取了较宽松的授权和审查制度，不同于任天堂，PS平台的软件阵容，拥有压倒性的优势。代表游戏《最终幻想7》，融汇了当时最先进的3D即时渲染和CG技术，划时代的精美画面，宏大的世界观架构，感人至深故事设定，优秀的游戏系统，成为了日式角色扮演游戏的代表性作品。第五代中比PS发售更早的世嘉Saturn，还是性能远超PS的任天堂N64，都没能阻止PS的全面成功。\n世嘉领先成先烈\n98年急于挽回市场劣势的世嘉，发售新主机Dreamcast，揭开了家用6代机的序幕，搭载当时非常先进的200MHz的CPU和拥有100MHz的GPU，拥有划时代的图形处理性能，将调制解调器作为标准配置，全面支持线上游戏，不幸，刚刚投入市场，显示芯片产能不足，货源严重短缺，持续一年多，白白浪费了竞争中赢得先机的机会。2000年3月4号索尼的PS2上市后，DC仍未充分供货处境变得更加困难，2001年初世嘉宣布永久退出家用游戏机市场，变成纯粹的游戏软件厂商。\n微软气粗\n微软在2001年11月15发布第一台搭载了奔腾3的XBox，加上英伟达的显卡Geforce3，配置堪比一台当时的主流PC，在六代机中拥有压倒性的最强性能，跻身主流游戏主机厂商队伍。\n正是因为氪金玩家下场，第一把就想放个大礼花，所以堆配置过高，64MB DDR内存，DVD-ROM，百兆网卡，5.1声道环绕声（当时唯一），产能和系统集成跳票，错过了领先于PS2的先发时机，没能激起预期的狂潮，不敌如日中天的PS2，但挤掉了任天堂的NGC成为主机销量第二。\n\n错过先机，但困不住富豪，亏钱抢市场（卖一台Xbox，就要亏126美元），售价比单买Geforce显卡还便宜30美金。\n\n比尔刚开始是想收购任天堂的，氪金玩家舍我其谁，通过收购方式入局，而当时任天堂主机规格不如sony，但手握大量现金，也风生水起，理念和商业策略也不一致，不同意合并。最终盖茨决定自己来，开发真正流淌微软血液的主机。\n好玩的游戏才是购买主机的最大动力，或许这也是任天堂的看法，所以对xbox的秀肌肉不感冒。微软也砸钱收购游戏公司为xbox开发独占游戏《光环》，也是一款业界影响深远的作品\n\n任天堂体感逆袭\n\n第七代出现了体感游戏，2006年任天堂Wii投放市场，没有像对手专注提升主机性能，而是革新游戏的操作方式，重新激活了玩家的客厅，很多轻度游戏玩家加入了Wii的阵营，第一款《Wii Sports》大获成功，取得8272万套全球销量，是人类历史上销量最高的电子游戏，自然成为第七代中最成功的家用机。\n总结\n主机游戏和主机的绑定性，使得这一领域具有天然的垄断性质，市场格局形成后，后进入者更加困难。\n中国篇\n中国的游戏产业几乎没参与主机游戏时代，PC单机游戏也因网游的带来而黯然失色，凭借网络人口的红利，网游大爆发，巨大的市场利润也使得国内游戏厂商更多选择代理游戏而非自主研发。\n\n2012年前的网游时代，中国饱受盗版困扰，转入运营并依靠运营发展壮大。这种背景下，中国玩家也只能愿意忍受低一些的游戏版本和质量。网游更看重运营，社交属性和持续收费模式决定了游戏不仅仅在于研发，更在于游戏的管理和运营。中国以手游和客户端游戏为主，2017年，手游占市场近60%的份额，客户端游戏仅次于手游，2016年之前，客户端PC游戏更多\n\n中国游戏从1994年开始（诞生第一个真正自己研发的游戏，北京金盘电子有限公司出品的《神鹰突击队》，实际上没什么销量和影响），经历游戏禁令（2000-2014，14年的深远影响，一方面阻碍本土主机游戏发展，使得技术差距越来越大，一方面阻碍国外主机游戏进入中国市场，所以主机游戏未能孕育），到2013年引发全民手机游戏热潮，后来居上。游戏产值在2016年超过美国。中国游戏元年晚了美国47年，错过时代。不仅仅是我国，东亚邻居如韩国也起步晚了，只能跳过发力网游。2000年前的游戏史，基本就是美国和日本的游戏史，别的国家参加都不算大角色。\n\n\n早期甚至有纯文字类游戏，动作展现也是文字叙述。国内文字MUD大多数以武侠为主题，跟我们的文化密不可分。\n\n\n主机山寨\n1980年代，主机游戏也进入中国市场，价格昂贵，购买途径有限，更多还是山寨产品，以“小霸王”最出名，游戏也多是国外游戏的盗版汉化版本。\n游戏禁令\n2000年6月，国务院审核通过了《关于开展电子游戏经营场所专项治理的意见》，以预防青少年沉迷游戏，以及电子游戏对身心成长带来的潜在伤害。”面向国内的电子游戏设备及其零附件生产，销售即行停止，任何企业个人不得再从事面向国内的电子游戏设备及其零部件的生产，销售活动“，主机游戏在合法市场上销声匿迹，还没来得及发展便胎死腹中。\n2014年解禁，PS4，Xbox进入中国，主机游戏市场有所增长，但增速缓慢，2017年所占比例只有0.7%。\n仙侠/武侠原创\n金山西山居的《剑侠情缘》系列最初只是对台湾大宇《仙剑奇侠传》的模仿，但随后西山居推出了剑侠情缘的单机和网游续作，《剑侠情缘网络版三》取得了巨大的成功。\n运营发力\n\n盛大代理的韩国游戏《传奇》取得了巨大的成功，奠定了那个年代玩家对游戏的认知，时至今日，众多页游手游的风格继续延续《传奇》的风格。2004泡泡堂的收费道具模式开始后，从2006年，中国网游全面转向免费模式。\n腾讯早期一直在避开红海，搞成了棋牌游戏平台后，也不自己搞MMORPG，自2007-2009，代理了三款不同类型的游戏，第一人称射击游戏《穿越火线CF》，横版格斗游戏《地下城与勇士DNF》，MOBA《英雄联盟LOL》，这不得不说眼光独到，这三款游戏都在各自的分类中牢牢占据第一的位置，带来了可观的利润，都是免费+内置付费的模式，这种模式和盗版游戏站在同一个竞争起点，精心策划的运营，使这批游戏保持了比盗版游戏更持久的生命力。\n中美差异\n\n美国电子游戏产业”研发为王“的态势从主机时代便延续下来，消费者也养成了固定的消费审美与习惯，对游戏体验的高要求使得玩家仍主要通过主机和PC体验高品质的游戏体验，手游端更多承担休闲娱乐等轻游戏的内容。中国游戏产业发展依托巨大的人口红利，网游凭借快速发展的通信设施，手游随着移动互联网的高速发展及更低的准入门槛让更多的民众参与其中。手游的广大市场正在倒逼中国游戏研发能力提升。\n主机游戏在美国担负着重度游戏的承载者，美国手游和主机游戏分工不同，手游只作为主机游戏的替代和补充，以轻度休闲为主。主机游戏配合更高的游戏配置，拥有更好的游戏体验感，且主机和主机游戏相对价格不高，所以决定了市场不同。\n起步差距\n中国早期的盗版时代，玩家主动付费意愿低，加之网游的竞争，孕育尚需时日。买断式的盈利模式下，美国把游戏当成普通文化娱乐产品。中国内购为主的游戏模式，游戏变成一个免费公园，充值才能变强的观念深入人心。\n\n内购付费的倡导者是盛大，在《泡泡堂》中第一次采用，大家纷纷效仿，这种方式与网吧模式结合，与去网吧租赁电脑花费模式相似。\n\n游戏产业的起步差距47年，导致游戏人才培养的巨大差异，游戏人才培养以专科为主，美国以开设相关硕博学位。中国重点在学习如何培养，提升游戏玩家的付费转化率问题时，美国游戏人才更多在思考什么是游戏，如何建立游戏的规则，如何通过游戏表达自我，这也造就两国研发创新能力的差异。\n人才培养\n\n游戏顶层设计人才的欠缺使得我国难以做出如欧美具有丰富故事性及宏大视角的游戏，一部分也因如今产业”运营为王“的格局所造成，游戏巨头已开发出一套成熟的游戏生产流程，再凭借资源的优势及优秀的运营手段，可以高效地实现收益，没有动力去开发大作。随着游戏产值的提高，其发展质量也将引起人们更多关注，届时游戏设计人才的培育也会逐渐引起关注并逐渐完善。\n美国游戏专业更多设置是硕士学位，本科专业相对较少，多半开在计算机或电影相关学院之下，通常分游戏技术开发和游戏策划制作人，游戏美术方向。专业基础课程包括编程，3D，声音设计，囊括游戏历史，游戏设计，除了基础课程，还允许选取感兴趣的方向如叙事游戏，严肃游戏，桌游等，还会提供游戏设计中的人文，历史，行为，心理等知识。主机平台玩家对游戏故事性和画面都有高要求，使得美国游戏专业更注重整体设计的培养。\n国内人才岗位大致分为三类，以编程为主的技术方向，以绘画3D建模为主的美术方向，以游戏内容设计为主的制作人（仅中国传媒大学有本科相关专业）方向，前两者培养较为完善，跟”重运营，轻设计“的模式使得游戏生产趋于工业化也有关系。\n产业数据\n2017年中国腾讯（181.2亿美元）和网易（55.76亿美元）合计占86%的国内市场份额，有游戏版号的共2614家，剩余的2612家分13.8%的市场，北京游戏企业最多，682家，广东489家次之，上海438家，浙江183家，江苏123家。年收￥5亿以上的游戏厂家，18家，可见头部企业挣的远远的多于尾部的。尾部企业更多是走游戏细分市场路线，如哔哩哔哩虽然是视频门户公司，主营收入84%来自游戏（￥20.16亿），主打二次元用户，主打御宅风格游戏。\n美国的头部游戏公司，仍以主机游戏，PC游戏为主，沿用IP资源，很少进行手游创新，在美国的手游新贵公司的股东中，不少是来自中国的游戏公司。相较于主机，PC游戏，手游的研发要求不高（Unity游戏引擎以降低开发者门槛闻名全球，相较于PC游戏，Unity引擎更适合做手机游戏，如《王者荣耀》，《炉石传说》等著名手游均采用Unity引擎开发，掌趣科技在2014年投资参股Unity公司1.5%的股权），所以尽管中国游戏研发实力弱，但依然能做出好的手游产品。\nTop15的游戏厂商，都有手游页游业务，巨头都想搞游戏，渠道商把控流量入口也期望通过游戏变现，逐利行为屡见不鲜。\n2017年中国游戏人群6亿，仅游戏人口就超越美国总人口，腾讯以近两倍的收入额超过第二名的索尼，成为全球第一大游戏公司，网易第7，完美世界第20\n里程碑手游\n\n\n1994 俄罗斯方块移植\n\n\n\n1997 贪吃蛇移植\n\n\n\n2009 愤怒的小鸟（玩法也是借鉴历史上的游戏）\n\n\n\n2010 水果忍者\n\n\n\n2011 神庙逃亡\n\n\n\n2012 保卫萝卜（中国）\n\n\n\n游戏玩家，心理诉求及对应的游戏行为\n\n\n\n动作（boom）-破坏-刺激\n\n破坏：追求混乱和损坏的诉求，这一类玩家是”爆炸就是艺术“的热衷者，破坏游戏场景元素寻求解压 《使命召唤》\n刺激：快节奏，激烈对抗的诉求，喜欢充满动作和惊险的游戏，期待通过自己的快速反应来获取奖励 《极品飞车》\n\n\n\n社交（一起玩吧）- 竞争 - 社群\n\n喜欢和其它玩家互动，包括合作和竞争。\n竞争：指玩家对抗比较的诉求，游戏中对决，对抗赛是他们的最爱。《王者荣耀》\n社群：追求友谊，合作的诉求，享受处于团队中并朝向一个目标前进的过程，相互聊天甚至倾诉心情 《魔兽世界》\n\n\n\n掌控（让我想想）- 挑战 - 战略\n\n挑战性的游戏体验，追求策略深度和高复杂度的游戏。\n挑战指对自身游戏能力展现和突破的诉求，玩家愿意花时间去打磨自己的技巧完成高难度的任务或BOSS，困难模式就是为他们设计的，还有一类&quot;速通玩家&quot;不断挑战更短的游戏通关记录。\n战略：游戏中表现高超决策和计划能力的诉求。享受权衡选择和相应结果的过程，如在资源和竞争性目标间的权衡，管理外交政策或想出最优的长期战略等，谨慎地调整资源消耗，人口增长等取得最终胜利。《部落战争》\n\n\n\n成就 - 完成 - 力量\n\n喜欢游戏中的数值成长，收集稀有物品。如任务，收集物，隐藏地图等，解锁所有成就或角色/动作行为。如《阴阳师》里的卡牌\n力量指在游戏中更强大力量的诉求，通常体现在游戏数值上，装备或道具。《地下城与勇士》\n\n\n\n沉浸 - 幻想 - 故事\n\n沉浸于有趣的故事，任务角色构建的游戏世界中，细分为幻想和故事两种\n幻想指体验不同人生/生活的诉求，角色扮演类，模拟经营类\n故事型愿意深入了解游戏的故事和角色，当做电影或小说一样去解读，感受人生或人性的微妙之处。\n\n\n\n创造 - 设计 - 发现\n\n喜欢不断尝试和实验游戏的交互编辑，通过设计和给个性化系统留下属于自己的作品。\n设计：体现自身创造力的诉求，对提供设计或定制化功能的游戏会更加偏爱。《我的世界》\n发现：探索游戏世界，体验游戏中的新奇的设置/反应的诉求，以游戏设计师预料之外的方式去试探游戏。《赛达尔传说》探索彩蛋。\n\n\n\n好的一面\n还有功能游戏这一方非议较少的净土，又称严肃游戏或应用型游戏，以解决现实社会和行为问题为主要功能诉求的游戏品类。是学习和实验的有效工具，用场景模拟化和游戏结合的方式提升教学效果。\n\n如2002年《金山打字通》，集打字练习和游戏于一体，2004驾驶模拟游戏《驾车高手》，宣传驾车安全知识。2015年职场培训游戏《满满学院》，2016年外科手术模拟游戏《柳叶刀客》，2018少年编程教育游戏《极客战记》，融入功能或教育意义。\n\n当然也有很好的贯穿宏大知识体系和财商教育或创造发挥的大型/流行游戏。除去好的，逐利的游戏确实应该被诟病，只不过是统治者的一份奶头乐社会安定工具罢了。\n里程碑手游看竞争\n农药传说\n王者荣哟作为近5年霸榜的MOBA（多人在线战术竞技游戏）游戏强者（15.11月内侧），其发迹前有何精彩故事可述说吗？\n2012年LOL已火遍世界，开启了电竞的新格局。腾讯也着手做准备，身处成都的卧龙工作室就整出一款端游《霸三国OL》，这便是农药故事的开端，农药中大部分英雄原画也是因此而来。\n\n但《霸三国OL》是RTS端游，4v4对战可操控小兵，画质优秀，但还没大展拳脚就遭遇变故。14年10月，腾讯游戏八大工作室解散重组。卧龙工作室和琳琅天下，天美艺游一起合并为天美工作室，《霸三国OL》也成为了天美的所有物。此时天美工作室负责人认为手游才是游戏界未来，为率先抢占MOBA手游市场，停止了《霸三国OL》的运营。在原有端游基础上着手开发新的MOBA手游–即为王者荣耀前身《英雄战迹》，但上百人打造的《英雄战迹》一上线就遭遇危机。\n《王者荣耀》目的是在MOBA端游爆火的大背景下，在尚未成型的MOBA手游市场中迅速占领制高点，但打着MOBA竞技第一手游的口号，却不是真正的MOBA玩法。看似休闲的1v1和3v3模式，让《英雄战迹》看起来更像是大乱斗模式的角色养成游戏，且连装备系统都没有。虽建模和画质不错，但一上线就受差评。同时光子工作室的MOBA手游《全民超神》，上线早几个月，下载量和好评都高很多。\n\n但《全民超神》也有自己一众前辈的老问题，做成了氪金游戏。虽然画风很贴近LOL，可培养机制的养成系统一样犯MOBA玩家忌，另外操作过于简单使得风头逐渐被农药压下去。\n市面上的更早的《自由之战》，由于英雄的不平衡，武器加成过高，也是氪金量大，违背MOBA竞技原则，趋向养成游戏，性能优化也差，逐步被潮流抛弃。\n还有一款《时空召唤》，贴近moba端游，但没请好声优，画质和打击感也差，还逐渐陷入骗氪活动的恶风。\n\n压力山大下，天美决定开启一众借鉴之路，三个月时间加班加点，听取玩家建议，大刀阔斧修改\n\n靠拢MOBA\n操作上学《自由之战》的双轮盘操作，提升操作手感\n简化游戏规则，短时间上手\n改名\n\n\n正所谓，在不占先机退无可退的情况下，狭路相逢勇者胜，你尽管努力，待对手的犯错的时机，一击必杀。\n\n新的变动-原神（赛尔达传说）\n\n市场终会出现挑战者，如现在风头挺劲的《原神》，抢占用户时间\n\n软硬件技术提升，移动游戏质量大进步，连吃鸡等过去只在PC和主机端出现的游戏品类也大规模移植到移动平台\n开放世界大作开发商们（如《刺客信条》，《荒野大镖客》，《侠盗飞车手》）彼时还对移动游戏兴趣平平，少有搬上移动平台的打算\n开放世界手游的奇思妙想还是被米哈游花了3年时间给掏出来了\n\n市场经过数年发展，也逐渐接受了日系游戏氪金抽卡机制付费模式\n\n\n多平台同步开发的游戏（主机，手游，PC等），才能打开出海的市场，当前出海文化输出要强过农药\n\n\n原神的成功离不开两个要素：米哈游深耕多年二次元赛道积累的卡通风格光影渲染技术 + 开放世界玩法（源自重度游戏更多的PC和主机平台）\n\n本质上原神和农药玩家是不同类型的，米哈游的游戏一贯是弱化社交，创始人也宅，热度同样会受后续同等级游戏的分流挑战。\n\n《王者荣耀-世界》出现，怪物猎人概念改版，原神玩家也高兴，可以给策划狗压力，让国内游戏市场卷起来，玩家受益\n\n原神不联机\n为啥不搞大型多人在线（MMO）\n\n玩个游戏是为了自己开心，新手玩的菜就得被人口吐芬芳？（不搞我伤害比你高顺带踩一脚的萌新恶臭环境）\n交流过多，欣赏美工，故事，配乐和其它精华部分的人就少了\n二次元玩家主体就是社恐怕麻烦，跟多人协作冲突\n技术挑战也是次要因素，运营成本高。反正来钱你还不是得靠商城？(游戏开发经验同样是很重要的，就仿似有些东西不可以用金钱快速堆出来，反映在原神身上的，就是其渣优化了)\n\n\n原神挣钱靠利用用户赌徒心理，收集心理，炫耀感，满足感来付费，充值抽卡，类似于日本的扭蛋，国内的盲盒\n\n大家都想明白了，MMO歧视弱玩家，这个品类弱势是必然，已很久没出新品了。除了魔兽，最终幻想没啥大玩家，付费能力强的玩家也没时间搞的像上班一样玩游戏了，千万别搞组队\n解读米哈游与原神\n米哈游是上交大三位大学生12年创立，旗下至今也只有寥寥几款手游。相比网易等公司，一年几十款手游的速度，米哈游真只能算弟弟，但是其崩坏系列，却成为二次元手游的标杆之作，特别是崩坏3的大获成功，一举奠定了米哈游在二次元手游的王者地位。\n\n用上一个游戏的应收，投下一个游戏的研发，是米哈游的传统，横版卷轴射击游戏《崩坏学园2》收益投入做3D动作游戏《崩坏3》，《崩坏3》收益投入做开放世界冒险游戏《原神》，游戏风格，形式虽不同，但也是在不断变换的游戏形式中，完成技术，经验的积累。\n\n不似巨头搞赛马，好处是物尽其力，坏处是经营风险。\n\n原神创始人跳出来说研发费用1亿美刀，远超设想（最夸张的业内人士估计加宣发，也就2-3亿），走了弯路是肯定的（动作手游转开放冒险），交学费出师正常，练兵需要钱，好奇崩坏系列到底赚了多少钱，才能如此财大气粗\n崩坏3系列挣了多少钱？\n预计有23亿人民币的营收\n\n从米哈游vs企鹅看创新\n通过在蓝海的创新，才能建立自己的生态位（避开血肉之躯，投入一场混战）\n\n挖一条自己的沟，抢别的江河的流量，形成自己的河流和生态，巩固自己的水土\n用户价值=新体验-旧体验-替换成本，小企业仰攻没有赢面，同维度竞争体量大占优\n你认为的20-40%的优化，好大的改变，在用户那里算上替换成本，可能是负分。妄图承载你的野望，到头多是自负的败局\n鹅厂长于社交，就不跟它拼社交型游戏，蓝海在哪里，从定位理论上来说，首先是客户定位，为社恐人士开发游戏，再则才是产品模式定位，成本领先或与众不同\n\n\n一群在欧洲的loser，去了美洲大陆所向披靡\n\n改变，去向何方，只能朝向大海的方向\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史","行业","浪潮之巅"]},{"title":"白话内卷","url":"/%E7%99%BD%E8%AF%9D%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7.html","content":"\n内卷是结构性的结果而非原因\n内卷是过去几十年特定发展模式所产生的结构性困境的集中体现，是结果而不是原因，反内卷也显得空洞而无力。\n过去特定历史背景的发展动力过于侧重人口红利和效率优先，带来了惊人的经济重量增长，推动了基础设施的快速完善，使中国快速融入全球产业链，在追求极致效率和规模效应的过程中，对社会公平劳动者权益和环境可持续性的考量置于次要位置，城乡和区域发展上也有大量的不平衡存在。\n过去庞大的人口基数曾被视为巨大的生存发展包袱，为了缓解人口对社会资源的压力，推行了严格的计划生育，可正是劳动力极度充裕的现实成为了中国发展经济的独特优势。改开背景下的农民工制度与 WTO 这两个最大的新变量，挽救了中国经济和整个城市福利体系。最大限度压低社会用工成本和企业负担，获得成本比较优势，同时可进行低成本的基建和城市化。\n福利甩锅\n劳动权益和福利的最小化，户籍壁垒和城市排斥，是的农民工即便长期在城市生活，也难以真正融入城市社会，公平享受城市公共服务，土地成为农民工事业和养老的最后一道防线，实际是将由社会承担的保障成本转嫁给了农村和农民家庭\n柔性执法\n\n效率优先降低了法律的权威性和统一性，柔性执法（严格立法下选择性执法）的策略，降低了经济发展成本，增加了地方经济的发展竞争力，也形成一种筑底竞争的恶性循环。谁与权利更亲近，谁就能获得更多执法优待权和法外特权，谁越遵纪守法合规经营，谁成本就越高，导致市场寻租普遍存在。\n土地税收\n户籍制度与土地财政的结合，形成一种独特的进城税汲取模式，将发展成本层层转嫁，居民的大部分收入都被提取，导致社会整体消费能力的不足。这种发展模式实现了经济的超常规增长，在全球经济中占据了举足轻重的地位。\n然而也带来了深远且持续的代价，劳动者薪资微薄，被迫长时间工作，且缺乏完善社会保障，没钱没时间没底气去消费，只能被迫选择廉价商品，厂家也没有向高附加值升级的空间，从而陷入低工资低消费的循环。\n模式结果\n这种模式财富必然高度集中于少数人手中，导致经济增长红利未能普惠大多数居民。我们错过了增量改革的最佳时期，导致存量分配改革变得日常艰难。我们选择低福利和高积累的发展模式，有意识将效率放在公平分配之前，并通过延后分配加速资本积累。将本可以将在经济增量时代推进的改革推迟，结果就导致这些问题越拖越严重，老问题没解决，新问题不断滋长。\n等到高速发展时代结束，再想回头做分配改革，发现强大的既得利益群体及路径依赖，使改革变得异常艰难。当前在「经济结构转型」，「社会公平实现」和「共同富裕」推进方面上形成了比其它经济体更为复杂的挑战，意味着改革不仅需要顶层设计的决心，更需要勇气打破根深蒂固的制度惯性和利益藩篱。\n内卷是非卷的序曲\n卷是阶级固化的尾声，当教育普及了，大多数人就不可能通过教育改变命运。过去机会特别多，有希望的时候大家并不感到卷，觉得是有奔头的，心情满满，阶级固化一旦形成，但人们的惯性还在，还没认识到固化的完成，像实现阶级跳跃。就像一个列车突然在高速上刹车了，大家啪一下压到前面去了，怎么突然走不动了呢，都想奔波想跑到前面去，是意识还没注意到实际情况的发生的状态。\n当一两代人意识到自己的父母没有卷成功，自己不会比自己的父母过得更好，这个卷的阶段就会过去了。西方早就走完了这些路，8090 年代后就进入非卷状态了，并不是什么新鲜事。\n破局在于理念与机遇\n硬币的正面写满了困难重重，反面的破局之路也在隐隐发光。所以如何将危机化为转型机遇是首要问题，当前是实现经济转轨和实现共同富裕承诺的重大历史机遇，要破除中国式内卷和实现高质量发展就必须彻底扭转发展理念，从单纯追求短期效率和总量增长转向以人为本，兼顾公平与效率的包容性发展。\n\n\n首先、要放弃汲取式经济发展模式，转为包容普惠式经济发展模式，向欧洲等先进经济体看齐，把劳动权益环境保护和经济发展放在同一个水平。\n\n\n要优化收入分配结构，提高劳动者报酬在国民收入中的比重。\n\n\n要鉴权和完善社会保障体系，让医疗教育养老真正成为全体公民的基本权利和坚实后盾\n\n\n要严格保障劳动者合法权益，加强劳动执法和监管，让劳动者有尊严的工作，拥有闲暇时间和精力去享受和消费，而不是在他们没钱时推动他们消费或者制造房价价格恐慌，把钱从老百姓钱包里逼出来。\n\n\n要坚定推动产业升级和技术创新，从人口红利和柔性执法中跳出来，转到人才红利和创新红利。\n\n\n要重塑法律环境，确保法律统一性和权威性。\n\n\n要正视和兑现对前期做出巨大贡献的农村农民和中西部的反哺承诺，化解城乡和区域间的历史性错位。\n\n\n从追求国富到实现民富：让人民公平共享发展红利，才能打破当前负循环。\n\n整个最后的一段，是否属于非理性的期待（反人性），有待观察，大概率是。反内卷可以实现，但可能是倒数第二段的内容。\n\n","categories":["社科自省"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"相爱相杀 -- 企业并购中团队管理观察","url":"/%E7%9B%B8%E7%88%B1%E7%9B%B8%E6%9D%80--%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%B9%B6%E8%B4%AD%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F.html","content":"\n**关键问题：**企业并购（组织激荡）团队整合使命下的人员管理\n**案例概要：**并购融合冲突下，保持成建制的团队稳定，接棒落实战略实施，以时间换空间，打造适合企业发展的组织\n突如其来的并购\n并购有风声，但一定有辟谣。当消息降临在打工人的那一刻，答案在风中已经飘了很久了。在小范围的核心团队圈层，势必已做了心理建设和鸡汤灌输。大量的基层人员，在此种场景必然分群，有本来就打算要走，多来一个N+1心中小甜美的；有心有不甘，小范围拉伙准备抗议到底的；有准备呆更久领取N+X补偿后，在另做打算的；有走一步看一步步步为营的。哪种比例会更高？肯定是后一种或后两种，否则也不是厌恶风险的打工人了。\n这里矛盾的大主角，显然是劳资双方。被收购方出卖的除了平台，品牌，商誉，还有团队。但在互联网领域，固定资产的机器不算什么，人是最大的资产。搞定人，搞定收购过来的团队，是横亘在高管面前的一套题。\n绩效的产出需保持组织稳定\n\n收购新上了一套高层班子，踌躇满志，战略战术有待检验，这需要士兵冲锋上前。解决执行问题是直观诉求，潜在诉求其实是组织的稳定，因为只有稳定的组织，才有绩效产出的保障。保持组织的稳定明面上不是重中之重，背地里却是。我们知道选好人，用对人，留住人是我们团队管理的三个角度，除去这些，影响个人，还有一些技巧。我们分别从这几个维度看看上演的做法。\n选好人 – 消除负面弱刺激\n在一波打算离职的人中，容易和抗争到底的人形成联盟，充当其为民请命的代表。这两拨人分开对待，要离职的人，利用威权和大局观游说，促成其放弃冲锋抵抗的角色，尽最大可能让其尽快离职。对于负隅顽抗的人，进行孤立，促使其向自行离职做转换。\n用对人 – 保持建制\n尽量保持原有建制和团队关系不变，维持一个相对放松的环境。利用原有的管理关系，进行影响力释放。\n留住人 – 利诱核心骨干\n对于核心团队，保持待遇不衰减，提升管理机遇，许有上市激励。\n其实新东家还有一些好的制度，如加班调休制度，但在并购振荡期，这些新制度并不是宣传战的要点。种植一个梦想才是洗脑的高境界。\n洗脑 – 重复弱刺激\n\n尽量保持原有建制和团队关系不变，维持一个相对放松的环境，也容易营造从众态势\n包装权威，领军人的传奇经历，让部分愿意相信的人相信继续成功的可能性\n推脱原来的不成功是旧环境的问题\n由原有带队人不断组织团队建设，进行鸡汤灌输，营造我们能赢，我们能收获跟原来不一样的结果的念想\n虚许空头支票（职位，股票），营造更具个人意向的目标感。\n\n我们知道一句话，谎言重复千遍，那就是真理。重复的弱刺激，是形成印象，占领心智的有效武器。\n后记\n管理并不需要换位思考\n管理并不需要换位思考，沟通需要换位思考。这句话看上去挺冷漠，但又实实在在。管理者真心希望组织稳定，以达成组织绩效，因为管理者是更具目标感和专业度的一撮人，理解达成使命或解决问题是价值的体现。人的管理又是有些复杂，因为他是意愿和能力的综合体，不仅仅要关注技能成长（绩效诉求体现在下属的成长中），同样要影响和关注意愿变动。人员流动在所难免，淘汰率和留存率又是一组相杀相爱的指标。最后让我们看看一个企业留人的因素\n\n薪资留人\n事业留人\n文化留人\n\n文化留人有那么重要么\n案例中的并购冲突，本质上事业没变，其实主要是两家企业文化不同。在软性的人文关怀，机会发展和品牌认同上，造成了员工使命和认同的差异。\n企业治理和组织能力打造中，现在更强调变革的基因，生态化的组织，创新迎接压力，这也是跟大家都在强调学阿里，学华为的调调相符，这两家都是不断组织变革的代表。新态势下的组织，需要使命，价值观驱动，并结合激励。而非传统的要求，惩罚来逼你做。围绕人，构建发挥人最大能动性的文化和环境，非常重要。\n说这么虚，文化包含啥\n\n使命，价值观\n激励机制\n福利，培训，工作设备，工作环境，工资\n信息共享\n\n也许还有更多，文化对于较好的人员留存有较大影响比重，经营一家伟大的企业需要重视。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"研发效能指标","url":"/%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E6%95%88%E8%83%BD%E6%8C%87%E6%A0%87.html","content":"\n目的\n\n研发指标的目的是客户卓越：用户增长、收入增长、运营效率提升、利润增长…\n\n评估现状助推改进\n从建立标准到精细管理\n\n交付模式规范化：内容包含从需求提出到上线反馈端到端的流程，实践等\n研发管理数字化：用成熟度数据管理团队能力，营造数据分为，全组织使用数据持续优化交付模式，提升交付效能，并且注重对历史数据分析，智能化出具问题报告\n\n四句真言：量化现状，诊断问题，辅助决策，驱动问题解决。\n\n形式上可组织双月会，通过指标变化确认改进效果\n\n从闭环上来讲，以问题出发优化研发管理规范，收集各部门最佳实践，形成组织财富，进行推广复用。\n指标点体系\n\n片面误区指标\n\n\n源代码行可能会让你了解系统的复杂性，但这不是衡量开发人员生产力的最佳指标\n\n\n故事点和速度有助于开发团队衡量他们在冲刺或项目中的移动速度，但也不是衡量生产力的最佳选择\n\n\n\n\n故事估值因团队而异，一个故事点还是多个故事点的拆解视角并不同\n\n\n在短期内移动节奏可视为生产力的提升，但随着团队更好预测他们的工作量，速度将开始趋于平衡\n\n\n质量保证（Better）\n代码\n\n单元测试覆盖率\nSonar\n\n高级别违规项\n平均违规项\n圈复杂度\n扫描覆盖率\n\n\n\n测试\n\n测试缺陷修复时效\nL1、L2测试缺陷比例\n测试缺陷验证失效\n\n生产异常\n\n紧急版本比例\n纯缺陷版本占比\n\n敏捷交付（Faster）\n积压\n\n特性、故事积压量\n平均积压时长\n积压率\n\n规模\n\n量（总量、人均量）\n率\n\n交付率（交付、新增）\n丢弃率\n代码提交人员比例\n\n\n速度\n\n80%分位交付周期（故事、特性）\n平均开发周期（故事、特性）\n缺陷关闭时效\n双周/单月 需求（特性）完成率[限定状态为已发布]\n\n\n\n技术工程（More Effcient）\n开发\n\n构建\n\n构建平均时间\n构建失败率\n\n\n代码日均行数\n代码库合规（提交检查）\n\n测试\n\n自动化用例执行成功率\n自动化执行频率\n\n部署发布\n\n部署平均时间\n部署失败率\n部署次数\n\n后记\n单点能力的效能工具收益会随着时间逐渐递减，企业需要从更高视角对研发效能一体化平台进行整体规划的能力。\n敏捷在说什么事？以流动效率为核心，提升团队的持续交付能力\n更关键的是：以长期质量为核心，沉淀优秀软件资产和工程能力，助力敏捷\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["研发质效"]},{"title":"祛魅","url":"/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html","content":"\n体验-祛魅\n尼采的铁口直断：生命是一团欲望，欲望不满足则痛苦，满足便无聊。当你真的拥有或者到达目的地后，才发现那里空无一物。成长是对所有客体体验的祛魅。生命的意义就在体验生命本身，在自己能力范围内，尽情多的体验，别被乱七八糟的东西困住。世界辽阔眼界宜放宽，各类服务的体验对于二三十岁的人的自信是一个巨大的提升。\n何为体验？ 我经历过，你没经历过，讲出来，你也不信，这东西就叫体验。\n体验这东西值得花钱（体验一次就翘辫子的不在此列，很多有钱人都喜欢玩极限运动，因为只有生与死才刺激不会没有快感），能改变一个人的价值认知，开拓眼界，拔高思想上限。应了那句话，只有拥有了，才能去魅。\n看美女是美女，看山是山，是经历过足够多看过足够多以后悟出来的结果。以前看山，想知道山的后面是什么，现在已经不想知道了，因为已知道山的后面还是山，这个道理谁都懂，但对于那些么上过山顶的人说这话，你猜他们信不信？祛的是对人的滤镜、对事的畏惧、对物的执念。戳破虚幻的泡沫，看清生活的本质，成为更强大的自己。\n但也要清醒的认知到任何客体经历、关系状态，没有一样可以让我们永远保持幸福喜悦。只要我们开心的预期及理想的范式，一直寄托在他者和外界身上，我们就会一直试图用新的体验去替代旧的。也只有形而上的东西能寄托人的无限心，一味追求物质享受只能慢慢溺毙于愈来愈深的欲望之海中。\n心中有杆秤：穷人叫体验，富人叫生活\n有时候你会看到公众号写手写一些内容安慰普通人以博取共鸣，一种我想显得自己已看透一切很牛逼，有钱人也就过这样的生活的鸡汤文，让穷人更好的活在自己的世界中。但穷人不能写爽文很容易露馅：888 一位的海鲜自助，真不如饭店点两个自己爱吃的菜来得舒服，夸张点不如自家的白粥咸菜。一看就能看出从小家境非常一般的小地方人的画像，长大了获得了一些机遇，这种出身的人只觉得自己家门口那点东西才吃得惯，其它什么都不稀罕，字里行间有一种专升本的美感。\n一分钱一分货，一毛钱两分货，一块钱三分货。品质的提升伴随的是价格数十倍的增长，不是一些好东西完全可以平替，是任何领域都需要大量金钱长期的体验加上自身各方面体验的天赋，衣食住行吃喝玩乐也像音体美一样都需要天赋才能感知的更明显。\n体验很重要，比体验更重要的是怎么去持久的享受，正如你没见王思聪去舍身出家，反倒是不停歇地体验。\n衣食住行情\n衣：如果置办一身行头，能让自己变得自信一点，就是值当去做的，但也要内里精神气质的衬托，好鞍配好马。习惯后选择的更多是舒适性，君不见马云整个定制的布鞋满足舒适又装杯，真正富有的人，在穿着上通常会显得相当低调。当你拥有一定的财富时，无需依靠这些外在的事物来彰显。奢侈品是个壳，壳下面是人是鬼，真不好说。一身奢侈品牌，跟另一群奢侈品把酒言欢，100%都是场面，反倒是见面穿着运动服，能搞一身臭汗的，更可能是真心朋友。\n食：放在现今社会来说，吃花不了几个钱，高端餐厅去几次，高级菜品品尝品尝，体验下蓝星物产，体验下服务贵贱。吃是个最高频领域，富人的生活不在豪车名表所展示的财富，更在于他们日常生活中与普通人的显著差异。普通人偶尔装个杯去吃个环境可以，平常就顺着自己口味就行，看过天宫一隅就够了。\n住：酒店，在万豪，希尔顿，凯悦，洲际往上，就迈入一块钱三分货的区间了（如不一样在一堆奢侈品洗漱用品），怎么选就根据资金心情随意了。\n行：除了房子，车是最大件。少了销售的忽悠，一些东西你根本发现不了。市面上的豪车，不少是二手的，价格下来了，你还觉得它豪么？买二手豪车泡妞的，但凡有点见识的，一眼就看得出来，谁跟他呀，能被骗的，得是什么货色。飞机高铁商务舱，长途确实舒服，条件允许的时刻也别亏待了自己，除了专机，这是普通人和富豪最容易平齐的领域。\n情：萝莉岛大家可能没去过，但商K实在是大众可接触之物。与其意淫萝莉岛，干脆花点钱去 KTV 找人聊天唱歌，去了就知道，美女这玩意，只对穷矮挫才稀罕。美女是穷人的奢侈品，是富人的厕纸（上层社会的稀缺资源是说话的分量）。刘天仙，底层一点的有钱人想的都是怎么为她一掷千金，博得红颜一笑，上层完全不是这样想，出发点是财富逻辑。抛开情欲，性欲，剩下的才是爱情。酒池肉林红粉骷髅反而体验多了没劲。\n回到当下\n社会底层需要学会对世界祛魅，无论是控制权利还是控制资本，本质只是高于基础劳动之上的一个基本社会活动，其实就是造概念营销，在政治领域直接就是造概念，创造的概念针对不同阶级，如何让老百姓过上他所认为的好生活，基本群众不知道什么好坏，依靠社会定义去感悟如何成功如何失败。\n中等生活的普通人一生至少体验几项，体验几次，直到破除对物的执念，体验获得了，长见识了，这钱花得值，后面也就可以省了，常人最终还是要回到当下或你定下努力目标。想极致体验的感受，小富不行，要么大富，要么大贵，如此，你吃的将是根据你口味定制的看似普通却是一般人一辈子没吃过的正宗开水白菜。\n为自己转身\n祛魅的好处显而易见，它让你拨开客体迷障，睁开火眼金睛，谁是绣花枕头，哪儿是草台班子。需要祛魅的是那些消耗自己的事物，而不是理想和远方。优秀美好的事物，不是拿来祛魅的，而是让人看到更多可能。\n真正吸引人的是自信从容，不需要担心衣食住行，想做什么都能搞定的底气。\n人类真正的快乐在于创造，而不是体验，体验无非是没出做过有新鲜感。且身体上的感官受觉体验上限很低且无法持续，精神上的探索发现乐趣更能让人着迷，上限高可持续性强。举些最简单的例子，长期坚持某项运动到较高水平，去未开发的自然环境创作，给他人提供帮助，与特别人交谈，获取少有人掌握的知识，都是更佳的精神多巴胺，很多都需要花精力，磨功夫，不仅仅是靠钱能得到/掌握。而最终决定一个人是否宏大，正是取决于那些极致体验。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性","哲理"]},{"title":"穷查理宝典","url":"/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html","content":"\n“长寿秘诀的答案很简单：不嫉妒、不抱怨、不过度消费，保持开心，不纠结于你的烦恼，和靠谱的人共事，做你该做的，这些简单的事情可以让你生活变得很好。” – 来自享年99岁的芒格先生无比正确的建议。\n芒格的生活、学习和决策方法\n他们花在学习和思考上的时间，比花在行动上的时间要多，这种习惯绝对不是偶然的。这是每个行业真正的大师身上所体现出来的纪律和耐心的混合物：一种绝不妥协的 把手上的牌打好 的决心。就像世界级的桥牌大师理查德·萨克豪瑟那样，查理在意的并不是他本人是否能赢牌，而是是否能把手上的牌打好。尽管在芒格和巴菲特的世界里，糟糕的结果是可以接受的（因为有些结果并不在他们的掌握之中），但准备不足和仓促决策是不可原谅的，因为这些因素是可以控制的。\n\n这跟孙子兵法中的观念：不可胜在已，可胜在敌是一致的\n\n多元思维模型\n若想在任何领域拥有竞争力，就必须熟练地掌握该领域的方方面面，不管你是否喜欢这么做，这是人类大脑的深层结构决定的。\n大多数人都只养成一个学科——比如说经济学——的思维模型，试图用一种方法来解决所有问题。你知道谚语是怎么说的：“在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，世界就像一颗钉子。”这是一种处理问题的笨方法。\n\n如果把人脑比喻做决策树模型或深度学习的模型，那么有偏的训练做出的决策是有风险的\n\n得到系统的常识——非常基础的知识——是一种威力巨大的工具。你拥有的基本知识越多，你需要吸取的新知识就越少，这也是招聘时基本问题基本功的重要性。\n获取跨学科的知识\n\n跨学科知识的合理组织模式应该是这样的：\n\n\n必须完全弄清楚所有知识的原始出处；\n\n\n必须把更基本的解释放在第一位。\n\n\n刊物有时候能够让学生学到新的成因模式，而不仅仅是复习原有的知识。如果学生想要尽可能地提高自己的判断力，那么在校期间就实践他毕业后要终生从事的工作，是非常有道理的做法。在商业界，我认识的那些判断能力非常强的人，他们也都用这些刊物来维持他们的智慧。\n\n从吴军的阅读写作50讲中，也列举了读近年学科综述的高效性，读学科教科书或领域经典，而非选择快餐读物的好处\n\n反过来想\n卡森采用的研究方法是把问题反过来想。就是说要解出X，得先研究如何才能得到非X。伟大的代数学家雅各比用的也是卡森这种办法，众所周知，他经常重复一句话：“反过来想，总是反过来想。”雅各比知道事物的本质是这样的，许多难题只有在逆向思考的时候才能得到最好的解决。例如，当年几乎所有人都在试图修正麦克斯韦的电磁定律，以便它能够符合牛顿的三大运动定律，然而爱因斯坦却转了个180度大弯，修正了牛顿的定律，让其符合麦克斯韦的定律，结果他发现了相对论。\n如果你们把问题反过来思考，你们通常就能够想得更加清楚。例如，如果你们想要帮助印度，你们应该考虑的问题不是： “我要怎样才能帮助印度？”相反地，你们应该问：“我要怎样才能损害印度？”你们应该找到能够对印度造成最大损害的事情，然后避免去做它。\n核查与批评\n养成一些让你能够保持客观公正的习惯当然对认知非常有帮助。我们都记得达尔文特别留意相反的证据，尤其是在他证伪的是某种他信奉和热爱的理论时。如果你们想要在思考的时候尽量少犯错误，你们就需要这样的习惯。人们还需要养成核对检查清单的习惯。\n连爱因斯坦这样的大人物也说过，他的成就取决于四个因素，首先是自我批评，然后才是好奇心、专注和毅力。\n好奇心\n雅典人的纯粹好奇心推动了数学和科学的发展，而罗马人则对数学或科学几乎没有贡献。罗马人更专注于矿藏、道路和水利等“实用”工程。最好的现代教育机构（这样的机构在许多地方都为数甚少）能增强人们的好奇心，而好奇心则能帮助人们防止或者减少其他心理倾向造成的糟糕后果。\n\n\n好奇心还能让人们在正式教育结束很久之后依然拥有许多乐趣和智慧\n\n\n带着快乐不断地思考和学习在某种程度上能够延缓不可避免的衰退过程\n\n\n\n这也是科学家经常长寿的一部分原因吧\n\n普世基本的智慧\n天下熙熙\n在大多数情况下，要说服一个人，从这个人的利益出发是最有效的\n可视化沟通\n人类发明了一种东西，以便弥补我们天生不擅长处理数字的缺陷，这种东西叫做图表。奇怪的是，它居然是在中世纪期间出现的。在中世纪的修道士发明的东西里，我认为惟一有价值的就是图表。图表以图形的方式把数字表现出来，它利用了你们的神经系统来帮助你们理解它\n找准优势规避难题\n正如巴菲特和我经常说的，我们跨不过七英尺高的栏。我们寻找的是那些一英尺高的、对面有丰厚回报的栏。所以我们成功的诀窍是去做一些简单的事情，而不是去解决难题\n每个人都必须搞清楚你们有哪方面的才能。你们必须发挥自己的优势。但如果你们想在较不擅长的领域取得成功，那你们的生活可能会过得一团糟。这一点我可以保证。如果不是这样的话，那你们肯定是中了彩票或者遇到其他非常走运的事情。\n经济学是非完美的\n诺贝尔物理学奖得主、发现了普朗克常数的伟大物理学家普朗克曾经研究过经济学。他后来放弃了。有史以来最聪明的人之一普朗克为什么要放弃经济学呢？答案是，他说：“经济学太难了。你想尽办法，得到的结果却总是无序而不确定的。”这满足不了普朗克追求有序的愿望，所以他放弃了。如果普朗克早就明白他在经济学里面永远得不到完美的秩序，我敢自信地预言，你们也将会得到相同的结果。\n你们那些误人子弟的教授太过信奉经济学中的“理性人”假设，对心理学中的“非理性人”理论则所知甚少，也缺乏实际的生活经验。人类跟旅鼠一样，在某些情况下都有“集体非理性”的倾向。这种倾向导致聪明人产生了许多不理智的想法，做了许多不理智的行为——比如说出席今天会议的许多基金会的投资管理实践。如今每个机构投资者最害怕的事情就是它的投资实践和大家的不同，这是很可悲的。\n公平是乌托邦\n人世间大多数结果都是不公平的，而且道德规范有时候必须不公平，才能取得最好的效果。过于追求公平，会给社会制度带来严重的功能障碍。\n\n公平违背了自然设定的规则，恰是一种不自然的设定，必引出你理想之外的问题，《历史的教训》一书里也谈了好多这方面内容\n\n生活是什么\n生活不仅仅是精明的积累财富。生活和生意上的大多数成功来自你知道应该避免哪些事情：\n\n过早死亡、糟糕的婚姻等等\n避免染上艾滋病、在路口和火车抢道以及吸毒。\n培养良好的心理习惯\n避免邪恶之人，尤其是那些性感诱人的异性\n\n多说一句，按富兰克林的建议，结婚前要睁大双眼看清楚，结婚后要睁一只眼闭一只眼。”也许这种“睁一只眼闭一只眼”的方法是正确的，但我喜欢一种更难做到的办法：“实事求是地看清现实，可还是去爱。”\n避免嫉妒\n关注别人赚钱（比你）更快的想法是一种致命的罪行。妒忌真的是一种愚蠢的罪行，因为它是仅有的一种你不可能得到任何乐趣的罪行\n在成为伟大的英国首相的过程中，狄斯雷利学会了不让复仇成为行动的动机，但他也保留了某种发泄怨恨的办法，就是将那些敌人的名字写下来，放到抽屉里。然后时不时会翻看这些名字，自得其乐地记录下世界是怎样无须他插手就使他的敌人垮掉的。\n总的来说，妒忌，怨憎，仇恨和自怜都是灾难性的思想状态，过度自怜可让人近乎偏执，偏执是最难逆转的东西之一。\n这世界上大概可以分为两种人，一种是“受害者”，一种是“幸存者”。我不会因为人性而感到意外，也不会花太多时间感受背叛，我总是低下头调整自己去适应这类事情，我不喜欢成为受害者的感觉，我不是受害者，我是幸存者。\n\n不管是什么原因，哪怕由于自己的孩子患上重病即将离去，也要想到自怜是于事无补的，负面的，是一种标准反应，应该避开，这样你的优势就远远大于所有其他人（强者的心态和思维方式）\n\n避免透支收入\n从前有一个人，是全世界最著名的作曲家，可是他大部分时间过得非常悲惨，原因之一就是他总是透支他的收入，这位作曲家叫莫扎特（他虽然收入波动大，但在音乐家里算是非常高的，比90%的维也纳居民多，收入高时不储蓄，收入低时又不调整高消费生活方式，打官司也输，现金流出现问题，也经常赌博）。连莫扎特都无法摆脱这种自我服务偏好带来的愚蠢行为的毒害，大家就更不应该去尝试。\n莎士比亚的不同\n\n此段并不来自于穷查理这本书\n\n和很多文人穷困潦倒不同的是，莎士比亚是一个精明的商人，他晚年生活得恬适和安祥，这其实和他的人生态度以及生活方式有关。不仔细查阅他的生平文献和史料，仅从他的书中总结，都可以得到这样一些人生信条：\n\n合理支配金钱\n家庭和谐最珍贵，要忠贞于爱情，区分爱情和情欲。两性关系需要两情相悦，水乳交融，不能勉强\n要放松自己，享受生活，享受美食，体会文学和音乐的魅力，不要过度悲伤\n要克制自己的欲望，不要酗酒、赌博、纵欲无度\n年轻与老迈全由心灵决定\n\n应该投资什么样的企业\n\n“我有一张剪报，那是1911年的《布法罗晚报》，上面列出了当时纽约证券交易所成交最活跃的50家公司的股票。到今天，唯有一家公司仍是大型的独立企业，那就是通用电气公司。”\n当你专注的市场被狂热的小型竞争对手——比如说山姆·沃尔顿——盯上时，那么你要活下来就变得更难了\n\n「竞争性毁灭」的力量有多么强大。历史证明，一家公司能够长期以一种让它的拥有者满意的方式保留下来的可能性是微乎其微的。要怎样才能和狂热的对手竞争呢？惟一的办法是挖一条尽可能好的护城河，然后不断地努力加宽它。\n狂热的竞争的推手力：随大流只会让你往平均值靠近（只能获得中等的业绩）\n\n新纺织机带来的好处只会落到那些购买纺织品的人手里，而不是落进拥有纺织厂的那个家伙的口袋。\n新技术、新发明，有利于推动社会文明进步，但对股票投资者来说，未必是好事\n\n优秀企业是什么\n有这么两类企业：第一类每年赚12%，你到年底可以把利润拿走。第二类每年赚12%，但所有多余的现金必须进行再投资——它总是没有分红。这让我想起了那个卖建筑设备的家伙——他望着那些从购买新设备的客户手里吃进的二手机器，并说：“我所有的利润都在那里了，在院子里生锈。”我们讨厌那种企业。\n\n分红的企业才是好企业\n\n好生意的代表\n可乐没有味觉记忆，奶油苏打水、根汁汽水、橙汁、葡萄汁，这些都不行，这些饮料喝多了会腻。大多数食品和饮料都这样，吃多了或者喝多了会觉得腻。所以可以做到很大的消费量，因成本边际递减效应，这么多年还没怎么涨价。\n麦当劳的快餐生意不如可口可乐的饮料生意好做。快餐行业在全球规模巨大，要是一定要从里面选一家公司的话，选麦当劳没错。麦当劳这几年促销活动越来越多，越来越依赖促销，而不是靠产品本身卖的好。总要想着下个月搞什么促销活动对付汉堡王，要担心汉堡王签下了迪士尼，怎么办（给小朋友赠送玩具）\n产品本身卖得好的生意，是吉列，人们买不是为了得到什么赠品。每天晚上，想想一两亿男人的胡子都在长，你睡觉的时候，男人们的胡子一直在长，你就能睡得很踏实，再想想，女人们都有两条腿，这更好了（刮腿毛，😄）\n管理者很重要\n我们收购一家又一家的企业，是因为我们敬佩它们的创办人和这些创办人在生活中取得的成就。在绝大多数情况下，他们会留下来，而且从来不曾让我们失望。所以你们偶尔会有机会可以投资一家有着优秀管理者的优秀企业。当然啦，这是非常幸运的事情。如果有了这些机会却不好好把握，那你们就犯了大错。\n你们偶尔会发现有些管理者非常有才能，能够做普通人做不到的事情。\n激情和天分，哪个更重要呢？伯克希尔充满了对他们自己的事业特别有激情的人。我认为激情比头脑的能力更加重要。\n\n三分之二的收购是失败的。而我们的收购很成功，那是因为我们从来不试图为收购而收购——我们等着那些不用多想也知道会成功的机会\n\n现实思维的思考\n市场测算\n如果缺乏数学运算能力，在我们大多数人所过的生活中，你将会像一个参加踢屁股比赛的独腿人。使用数学运算来确定我们的目标到底意味着什么，以可乐行业举例。\n根据合理的推测，到2034年，全世界大概有80亿饮料消费者。每个消费者的身体成分主要是水，每天必须喝下64盎司的水，也就是八瓶八盎司的饮料。如果我们的饮料和其他饮料能够迎合消费者的味道，只要占到全世界水摄入总量的25%，而我们在全世界能够占据一半的市场，那么到2034年，我们就能一年卖出29200亿瓶8盎司的饮料\n\n$64 * \\frac{1}{4} * \\frac{1}{2} = 8$盎司，80亿 * 365=29200亿，相当于目标卖每人一瓶8盎司装，本身还是市占率之锚\n\n如果我们销售每瓶饮料得到的净利润是4美分，那么我们能够赚到1170 (=29200*$\\frac{4}{100}$=1168) 亿美元。这就足够了，如果我们仍然能够保持良好的增长率，那么企业的价值轻轻松松就可以达到2万亿美元 （相当于17倍的市盈率）\n目标分解\n第一，在这150年里（可口可乐1884年创立），我们必须创造一个新的饮料市场，让它能够占到全世界水摄入总量的$\\frac{1}{4}$；\n第二，我们必须经营有方，能够占有一半的市场，而我们所有的竞争对手加起来只占有另外一半的市场。\n这些结果称得上是lollapalooza效应。所以，我们必须调动一切有利因素来完成我们的任务\n如何打造产品皇座\n\n考虑到巴甫洛夫效应(条件反射)，我们将会明智地选择这个听起来神秘又高贵的名字——“可口可乐”，而不是一个街头小贩的名字，比如说“格罗兹的咖啡因糖水”。\n出于同样的巴甫洛夫原因，明智的做法是让我们的饮料看起来很像红酒，而不是糖水。所以如果这种饮料生产出来很清澈，我们将会给它添加人工色素。\n我们将会给这种饮料充气，让我们的产品看起来像是香槟或者其他昂贵的饮料。\n同时把它的味道调制得更好，让竞争产品难以模仿。\n\n因为我们准备将许多昂贵的心理效应和我们的味道联系起来，所以它应该不同于任何标准味道，这样我们就能给竞争对手制造最大的困难，并确保绝无现有的饮料因为味道碰巧和我们的产品相同而获益。\n金融衍生品\n我非常有把握地预测（美国的）主要银行无法以账本上的价格清算它们持有的衍生品\n老巴的投资风格画像和建议\n\n我想人们在投资管理中犯错的原因可以用一个故事来解释：我曾遇到一个卖鱼钩的家伙。我问他：“天哪，你这些鱼钩居然是绿色和紫色的。鱼真的会上钩吗？”他说：“先生，我又不是卖给鱼的。”\n亚伯拉罕·林肯曾经问：“如果你把尾巴称为腿，那么一只狗有几条腿呢？四条。将尾巴称为腿，并不能让它就变成腿。”— 忘记不现实的假设\n\n巴菲特今天的投资业绩可能得益于他早年研究赛马的经历。这两个领域都有大量的资料，都有已知和未知的变量，都有不同的学派研究怎样才能最好地评估这些因素。不出意料地，巴菲特在这两个领域使用的方法是相同的。\n\n速度派的赌徒很像股票市场上的动量投资者，认为跑最快的马能够赢得比赛（我们不都是这样吗？）。\n旅途派更关注的是马匹在“旅途”中遇到的各种细节。当天的赛道对前领型马匹（closers）有利吗？那匹马排位靠后吗？那条赛道有很多直道吗，还是没有直道？\n\n股票市场的传奇投资人物沃伦·巴菲特年轻时曾出版过一份赛马投注指南。他曾在描述他的投资风格时自称为旅途派赌徒。他的同行几乎没有人能听懂这句话；赌马者当然能听懂。\n靠折腾赚钱，还是靠不折腾\n\n这点老巴和华尔街是不同的，华尔街是靠折腾赚钱\n\n只要把生意看懂了，就能赚大钱。择时很容易掉坑里。只要是好生意，我就不管那些大事小事，也不考虑今年明年如何之类的问题。看一个生意，你就一门心思琢磨它将来会怎么样，别太纠结什么时候。把生意的将来能怎么样看透了，到底是什么时候，就没多大关系了。\n看重自己的能力圈\n不纠结过去的事，纠结也没用。人生只能向前看。你们从错误里或许能学到东西，但最重要的是只投资自己能看懂的生意。如果你像很多人一样，跳出了自己的能力圈，听别人的消息买了自己毫不了解的股票，犯了这样的错，你需要反省，要记得只投资自己能看懂的。\n自己要买什么，得对自己负责。一定要有个理由，说不出来理由，别买。是因为别人在和你闲聊时告诉你这只股票能涨吗？这个理由不行。是因为成交量异动或者走势图发出了信号吗？这样的理由不行。你的理由，一定是你为什么要买这个生意（我根本不想买它的生意，只是觉得它的证券便宜，这就是个错误）。我们恪守这个原则，这是本•格雷厄姆教我的。\n对分散投资的看法\n若不是职业投资者，不追求通过管理资金实现超额收益率目标，应该高度分散。98%~99%的投资者应该高度分散，但不能频繁交易，你的操作模型或标的应该和成本极低的指数基金差不多，相当于你持有中国/美国的一部分就可以了，这样投资，是相信持有中/美的一部分会得到很好的回报。普通投资者这么「指数化投资」是正路。\n如果想积极参与投资活动，研究公司并主动做投资决策，那就不一样了。既然你走上研究公司这条路，既然你决定投入时间和精力把投资做好，那么分散投资就大错特错。在资金量一般的情况下，你能看懂拥有的生意不应该超过六个，要是你能找到六个好生意，就已经足够分散了，且你能赚很多钱。\n\n靠第七个最好的主意发家的人很少[肯定掉沟里]，靠最好的生意发家的人很多。\n\n拥抱坏消息\n伯克希尔有一条普遍的规矩：“有坏消息要立刻向我们汇报。只有好消息是我们可以等待的。”\n\n风险类的舆情比极端正向的有效，正向的通常滞后很多\n\n人类误判心理学\n人类就像被驯养的动物和猴子，也生活在一种等级结构中，他倾向于尊重当权者，喜欢和同阶层的成员合作，同时对处于下层并与之竞争的人表现出极大的不信任和不喜欢。\n蚂蚁有限的大脑不但容易受环境欺骗，而且还会遭到其他生物的操控。这种蚂蚁的大脑里面包含了一种简单的行为程序，引导蚂蚁在爬行的时候跟着前方的蚂蚁走。如果在这种蚂蚁爬行时把它们弄成一个圆圈，它们有时候会不停地走啊走，直到死亡为止\n人类的知觉系统清楚地证明了大脑确实会失灵。人是很容易受到愚弄的，无论是人类精心设计的骗局，还是偶然出现的环境因素，抑或人们刻苦练习而掌握的非常有效的控制术，都能够轻而易举地让人们上当。导致这种结果的原因之一是人类感知中的微量效应。如果刺激被维持在一定水平之下，人类便察觉不到它的存在。由于这个原因，魔术师能够在黑暗中做一通虚张声势的动作之后让自由女神像消失。观众并不知道他们坐在一个慢慢旋转的平台之上。\n苏联共产党对激励机制的超级威力完全无知，结果造成什么情况呢？有个苏联工人这么说：“他们假装给薪水，我们假装在工作。”\n避免不一致倾向\n\n社会心理学中的“认知失调”理论\n\n凯恩斯教授说是人类头脑和人类卵子的运作方式非常相似。当一个精子进入卵子，卵子就会自动启动一种封闭机制，阻止其他精子的进入。人类头脑强烈地趋向于与此相同的结果。\n新思想不被接受，是因为它们与原有的旧思想不一致，甚至在物理学领域，激进的新思想也很少被旧卫士所接受。与此相反，普朗克说，唯有新的一代成长起来，较少受到旧理论毒害的他们才能接受新理论。实际上，这种“脑梗阻”的情况也曾经在某种程度上发生于爱因斯坦身上\n避免不一致性倾向造成的结果之一是，人们在获取新身份的过程中作出的重大牺牲将会提高他们对这种新身份的忠诚度\n避免不一致性倾向是如此强大，乃至一个人只要假装拥有某种身份、习惯或者结论，他自己通常就会信以为真。因而，许多扮演哈姆雷特的演员会在某种程度上相信自己就是那位丹麦王子。许多装好人的伪善者的道德水平确实得到了提高；许多假装公正无私的法官和陪审团确实会做到公正无私；许多辩护律师或者其他观点的鼓吹者最后会相信他们从前只是假装相信的东西。\n互利（回馈）倾向\n聪明的雇主试图压制从事采购工作的职员的回馈倾向。最简单的对策最有效：别让他们从供应商那里得到任何好处。山姆·沃尔顿（注：山姆·沃尔顿，1918—1992，美国零售商沃尔玛公司的创办人）赞同这种彻底禁止的思想。他不允许采购员从供应商那里接受任何东西，哪怕是一个热狗也不行。考虑到大多数回馈倾向是在潜意识层面发挥作用，沃尔顿的政策是非常正确的。如果我是国防部的负责人，我会在国防部实行沃尔顿的政策。\n拒绝-退让\n遇到陌生人就要求他们连续两年每周花大量时间去照顾少年犯。这个荒唐的请求得到了百分之百的拒绝。但实验员跟着又问：“那么你愿意至少花一个下午带那些少年犯去参观动物园吗？”这将西奥迪尼原来的接受率从1/6提高到了50%——整整3倍。\n西奥迪尼的实验员所做的是作出小小的让步，于是对方也作出了小小的让步。由于西奥迪尼的实验对象在潜意识中作出了这种回馈式的让步，所以有更多的人非理性地答应带领少年犯去参观动物园。这位教授发明了如此巧妙的实验，如此强有力地证明了某个如此重要的道理，他理应得到更广泛的认可。甚至在水门事件在司法部长批准进入水门大厦这事上也有体现。\n简单联想倾向\n这是那么多精致广告有用的原因，就像简单的条件反射一样\n“波斯信使综合症”中看出来。古代波斯人真的会把信使杀掉，而这些信使惟一的过错是把真实的坏消息（比如说战败）带回家。对于信使来说，逃跑并躲起来，真的要比依照上级的心愿完成使命安全得多。\n自视过高倾向\n有90%的司机都认为自己的驾驶技术在平均水平之上。\n这种误评也适用于人们的主要“私人物品”，人们常会称赞自己的配偶，非客观的过高评价自己的孩子，甚至细小私人物品也一般会得到过度的称赞。这种过高高估自己私人物品的现象在心理学里面有个名称&quot;禀赋效应&quot;。做出决定后就会觉得自己的决定很好，甚至比没做出决定前所认为的还要好。\n自视过高倾向往往会使人们偏爱那些和自己相似的人。有些心理学教授们用很好玩的“丢钱包”实验证明了这种效应。他们的实验全都表明，如果捡到钱包的人根据钱包里的身份线索发现失主跟自己很相似，那么他把钱包还给失主的可能性是最高的。由于人类的这种心理特性，相似的人组成的派系群体总是人类文化中非常有影响的一部分。\n自视过高往往会导致糟糕的雇佣决定，因为大部分雇主高估了他们根据面试印象所得结论的价值。防止这种蠢事的正确对策是看轻面试的印象，看重求职者以往的业绩。\n被剥夺超级反应倾向\n人类和芒格家的狗差不多。人们在失去——或者有可能失去——财产、爱情、友谊、势力范围、机会、身份或者其他任何有价值的东西时，通常会做出不理性的激烈反应，哪怕只失去一点点时也是如此。因此，因为势力范围受到威胁而发生的内耗往往会给整个组织造成极大的破坏。正是由于这个因素和其他因素的存在，杰克·韦尔奇长期致力于扫荡通用电气中的官僚作风是很明智的行为。很少企业领袖在这方面做得比杰克·韦尔奇更好。\n剥夺超级反应倾向也是导致某些赌徒倾家荡产的重要原因之一。首先，它使得赌徒输钱之后急于扳平，输得越多，这种不服输的心理就越严重。其次，最容易让人上瘾的赌博形式就是设计出许多差点就赢的情况\n避免因此而在公开报价拍卖会上付出愚蠢的价格，最佳的办法是巴菲特的简单做法：别去参加这些拍卖会。\n我用手头的现金买下了某支潜力股票。第二天，他又想以同样的价格再卖给我1500股。这次我谢绝了，部分原因是我没那么多现金，只能卖掉某些东西或者举债才能筹到所需的173000美元。这是个非常不理性的决定。当年我生活很好，也不欠债，买这只股票没有赔本的风险，而同样没有风险的机会并不是经常有的。不到两年之后，壳牌收购了贝尔里奇石油公司，价格是大约每股3700美元。如果我当时懂得更多心理学知识，买下那些股票，我就能多赚540万美元\n\n何尝不是很多欠缺财商的普通人的写照\n\n从众倾向\n一个人自动依照他所观察到的周围人们的思考和行动方式去思考和行动，那么他就能够把一些原本很复杂的行为进行简化。而且这种从众的做法往往是有效的\n\n这种倾向造成了许多可笑的结果。例如，如果一名教授安排10名实验员静静地站在电梯里，并且背对着电梯口，那么当陌生人走进电梯时，通常也会转过身去，摆出相同的姿势。\n\n对比错误反应倾向\n因为人类的神经系统并不是精密的科学仪器，所以它必须依靠某些更为简单的东西。比如说眼睛，它只能看到在视觉上形成对比的东西。和视觉一样，其他感官也是依靠对比来捕捉信息的。更重要的是，不但感知如此，认知也是如此。结果就造成了人类的对比错误反应倾向。\n错误衡量易得性倾向\n这种倾向和一句歌词相互呼应：如果我爱的女孩不在身边，我就爱身边的女孩。人类的大脑是有限和不完美的，它很容易满足于容易得到的东西，无法使用它记不住后者认识不到的东西。所以大脑会高估容易得到东西的重要性，从而展现出这种倾向。\n避免受易得性——错误衡量倾向影响的主要对策通常是按程序办事，包括使用几乎总是很有帮助的检查清单。\n总结\n这些我们无法摆脱的心理倾向能带来什么实际的好处呢？我的答案是，这些心理倾向带来的好处可能比坏处多。不然的话，它们就不会存在于人类容量有限的大脑中，而且还对人类的处境产生了很大的作用。所以这些倾向不能，也不该，遭到自动地清除。\n尽管如此，上文描绘的那种心理思考系统，如果得到正确的理解和应用，将有助于智慧和端正行为的传播，并且有助于避免各种灾难。心理倾向是可以改变的，认识各种心理倾向和防范它们的对策通常能够防患于未然\n应向工程学偷师\n很多系统都没有像工程学那样设定安全边际，用来防止不可避免的人性弱点所造成的损失。例如，面对外科手术中许多本可避免的死亡，工程学作出的反应是，创造一些阻止操作者将氧气输送量降到零的麻醉机器。\n\n从这种角度上来讲，软件工程学也是为普通人协作而生，真正的天才不受此约束，例如linus一个人假期内搞定linux\n\n据此理，乐观主义在会计中没有容身之地。\n人一生只需要富一次\n人其实不需要富很多次，也不需要成功很多事情，只要成功一件比较大的事情就可以非常有钱了。这时需要做的就不再是焦虑财富问题了，需要做的不再是借钱炒房，或者拿所有存款去炒币，赌一把看能不能单车变摩托。因为你已经有摩托了，为什么还要去赌一把。\n从无产者的赌徒心态变成一个真正的长线经营心态，也就是说的有恒产者有恒心。要做的恰恰是拒绝巨大部分机会，以保护自己已有的财富。那么大公司怎么有钱了还在激进投资，因为它们是垄断公司，它们有强劲的利润流。它们不是一辈子只富一次，而是富很多次，且是越来越富，不断做投资风险可控，这一般人比不了，也不是一般富人能做到的。\n这里说的是哪怕你再也赚不到钱了，还可以一直富下去到死，因为消费是消费不穷的，但一个重大的人生决策失误如投资，创业或婚姻，就可以让你直接返贫。所以有钱后重大人生决策一定要足够小心和慢，宁愿不赚钱，宁愿不做决策，也不能赔大钱，这才是富人的决策逻辑。进而彰显出财富的逻辑：没钱的人要不断折腾，当一个赌徒；有钱人的要保护自己的财富，哪怕不赚钱也不能亏钱。\n\n只富一次与阶层跃迁：对普通人来说，也就是说只跃迁一个阶层，然后把这个阶层守住，并传给下一代，对 99.99%的人来说，这种思想还是可取的，变成大富是小概率中的小概率事件，未知长路的赛跑，经验累积稳扎稳打更能穿越周期，传世长远。\n\n贫穷的本质\n贫穷的本质不是懒惰，而是无效努力和错误决策的结果。人的任务，不是看清楚远处模糊的东西，而是去做好身边清楚的事。\n凡事往简单处想，往认真处行。人生重要的机会不需要太多，一两次就够了。为什么要着急？明智的人能耐心等待，让时间流逝，体会其中的妙处，大多数人总是瞎忙活…\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["人性","经管"]},{"title":"童年成长寄语","url":"/%E7%AB%A5%E5%B9%B4%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%AF%84%E8%AF%AD.html","content":"\n童年的意义\n到了一定的年纪，你会发现，生命中很多美好的事情都发生过了，剩下的情节，只是重复和老去，日复一年。\n唯有孩子，他们会冲走生活的重复，原来小时候是如此的纯真和充满想象。让你可以重新经历一次童年，让你去买小时候在爸妈面前求之不得的玩具，让你去不断总结怎样做好父母，让你知道控制自己的情绪，放慢自己的语速，从而认清自己，接纳自己。\n低幼孩子的世界很小，除了学校就是家里，两处都给压力，他也就会找其他精神去处或无处可去。有些孩子学习不好是天然的（30%不适合读书），在学业压力下还有家里的支持能相对较好地度过青春期，有些绝望的案例比较极端跟双端压力有关。说到底父母应该清醒，如果世界上必须有人无条件地接纳孩子的不完美，那也责无旁贷是父母。\n父母存在的意义\n我们尽量对孩子好一些，让他们在小时候尽量快乐，因为长大以后他们会遇到很多痛苦，那时候，小时候的快乐就会成为他们最美好的回忆和安慰。\n父母存在的意义，不是给予孩子舒适和富裕的生活，而是当你想到父母时，你内心就充满力量，会感受到温暖从而拥有克服困难的勇气和能力，以此获得人生真正的乐趣和自信。\n幸运的人用童年治愈一生，不幸的人用一生治愈童年。\n学校 vs 家长\n孩子一半时间在学校，195天在校，170天在家，学习的差距不是在学校，而是在家里。\n\n\n学校的教育是批发式的，同样的老师，同样的教学\n\n\n孩子在学校的习惯和表现也是在家庭中培养出来的\n\n\n错过了孩子的成长后续是补不回来的，所以要有固定的更多的陪伴，也不要假手于上一辈，上一辈除非层次很高，否则必然跟现今社会脱节，错误习惯不少，教不好新时代的儿童。性相近，习相远。小朋友在性上差别不大，出现区别是在习上。交给老人或保姆，你的性+老人/保姆的习，养育出的结果，多数情况下不是你希望的。\n\n陪伴和教育是保姆和老人无法替代的\n\n照顾与分离\n照顾和分离，都是父母在孩子身上必须完成的任务。我们理应在孩子年幼时给予强烈的亲密，又需在孩子长大后学会得体的退出。亲子关系是生命中一场深厚的缘分，不是一种恒久的占有，是一场心胸与智慧的远行。\n所谓父子母女一场，你和他的缘分就是今生今世，不断在目送他的背影渐行渐远，你站在小路的这一端，看着他消失在小路转弯的地方，而且他用背影默默告诉你，不必追。\n\n当父母故去独剩你时你会如何接力？假设孩子脱离你独立时如何回顾过往？\n\n对于孩子而言，生命健康存在，在这个世界上走一遍，能体会美好，让父母有机会与他同行一段，也许就是缘分的意义。\n带娃是个技术活\n孩子不是随便生的，也不是当猪养的，带娃有多难，谁带谁知道。\n\n若是冲突硬碰硬，很容易伤害到孩子的小心灵。且小孩子能有什么坏心思呢，多半是父母搞错了，这是一场无硝烟的心理战。\n几个常见的情况或误区如下，得尽力避开\n没耐性，好贪玩\n在很知名的米歇尔实验中发现，哪些能忍住诱惑的孩子，学业和人际关系都更好，这就是很多人都知晓的延迟满足效应（学会忍耐，往往会得到更多）。\n从19个月起就能看出忍耐力的差异，最好从1岁半到8-9岁，训练孩子【加外力】，可以通过转移注意力（例如要玩时，给他讲故事），让他做积攒类的事情（你甚至可以设计一套奖励货币体系—例如用豆子）来进行磨炼。\n训练孩子是好事，怕的是，只训不练，就如下一种情形\n只会消极批评\n很多孩子受到的教育是不断强调他们有多蠢，有多坏，有多么不努力。他们从此失去了信心，变得越来越悲观，因为他们觉得自己一切痛苦都来自倒霉货命运的安排。你可以教会孩子如何拥有乐观的心态，具体的教育方式就是帮助他们理解挫折。告诉孩子们，他们遇到挫折都只是暂时的（不会伴随一生，不是永恒的烙印），只要保持耐心且继续努力就一定能将其克服，他们就会变得乐观。\n\n将时间放长远，也有助于培养乐观情绪，如十年奋斗目标\n\n你与孩子生气，批评，指责，抱怨，全身负能量，只会打击孩子的积极性与自信心，让孩子胆怯自卑，对你越发反感，最终两败俱伤。只会消极的批评，那就是往教育里注水，不但没啥用，还会让孩子心理抵触，只会重复犯错。看好一个人，他就会变好，这就是心理学中的罗森塔尔效应。平时，要多给孩子期望，赞许。这样孩子会从你的语言，表情甚至每一个细胞里，感觉到自己能行。\n犯错时，别急着骂，要给孩立个好人设，孩子是懂事的，心里觉得自己很优秀，就不想让父母失望。要让孩子愿意听你的话。\n神烦家长\n一件事反复哔哔，会让亲子关系，成为世界上最遥远的距离。咱们用马克吐温的故事来举个例子。一次马老听牧师募捐演讲，一听就想捐款，10分钟后，牧师还没讲完，他烦了，只想捐零钱，又过了10分钟，牧师还是没讲完，他气得直接走人，还顺走了两块钱。\n这种刺激太多，时间太长，让人烦的情况，叫做超限效应，孩子不是不可以批评，但最好只批评一次，或只讲一点才有效，总之就是：点到即止。\n强调习惯，不纠缠于某些细节之中，束缚孩子的生机，压制孩子的灵性，耗尽孩子的能量。能量都在小事上耗尽了，大事却疲于应对。\n家庭教育的秘诀是：闭上你的嘴，迈开你的腿。走你的人生路，演示给孩子看，说的越少越管用，越多越反感。爸爸的大格局，妈妈的好情绪，方是孩子成长最好的风水。\n神高侠侣\n家长自视甚高，觉得孩子也是天才，就对孩子要求也神高。试问小孩子哪有那么大能耐，一开始就目标很高，这得吓退多少人。在学习方面，要从简单有趣的东西学期，有兴趣了，才能愿意学下去。\n降级沟通，寓教于乐\n实际上人类孩子说话是自己学会的（常规不超过24个月），周围的人只是帮其纠正纠正，引导引导，他一直在听，听完他就会说，有先开语，也有说贵人语迟的，都学会了，沉浸式学习，体验式学习。要明白，行万里路比读万卷书还重要，花点时间陪孩子出去，沉浸式地去感受一下。\n你跟他需要有一种比较好的方式去沟通和学习，互相提问和启发式的一种学习，你的思维要降到他那个档次，然后再跟他去聊，你变成孩子跟他聊，而不是让他变成成人来跟你聊，这种方式他会把你当朋友，各种各样的问题就会越来越多。\n被夸大的孩子比批评大的一定好，挫折一生太多，无需太多挫折教育，你能把学习寓教于乐是你的本事，但学习真的不快乐，要坚持啊。\n小确幸vs大道理\n小确幸比大道理有用，未来从无数个现在组成，确定性来自于小确幸（每天往前走）\n智力成就来自于不盲从\n《自力更生-self-reliance》是超验主义哲学家/作家拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生最著名和最具代表性的作品之一，发表于 1841 年，里面将自力更生想象成通往真正和平与幸福以及天才和生产力的道路。爱默生审视了人类社会的一些轮廓，这些轮廓使一个人天生的独立思考和行动的能力变得复杂。他将社会比作暴徒，并提出了一些摆脱这种范式的建议，建议有历史局限性，就不提了。\n像其他超验主义者一样，爱默生想象每个人都与上帝有个人联系，没有中间人（例如牧师）的参与。真理和启蒙从内心开始，那里也是上帝对人说话的地方。\n\n\n掌握自力更生的最大障碍是模仿和从众，这两种做法被作者爱默生描述为可耻的流行病，它们浪费了潜力并违背了上帝的本意。\n\n\n在教育范围内，他也拒绝模仿，相反，他认为智力成就只能通过独立的、原创的思想来实现。爱默生坚持认为，过去的伟大思想家理解并体现了这一观念——他们的天才来自他们自己，而不是来自他们的老师或同龄人。这些天才/思想家经常被误解，但却并不害怕来自同龄人的反对或判断。\n\n\n从众要求一个人放弃个人驱动的追求，放弃发现和培养他独特的个人主义的机会。爱默生恳求人们谴责适应和盲目同意规范和惯例的舒适感，呼吁人们采取行动，重建与自己、与周遭的关系。一个人以自己为中心，才能充分发挥自己的潜力，造福于自己和世界。\n\n不可不说100 多年前的一些提法，也有其表达和发现的灵光\n\n育儿看法\n犹太人和华人都比较重视教育（也都重视钱），其实普遍重视教育，中国是不及犹太人的，因为也就是近代的事儿。\n犹太人的节日礼物大部分是书，这个华人族群就相形见绌了。在矮大紧的一些犹太朋友里，他举例家庭里甚至定期会举行读书会，外加定期去旅行，并不是那种豪华的，就是到处去看看世界。到处去看看，是我比较向往的看法，遍历山河，才觉人生值得（出走半生，归来仍是少年，难，成长是一定的）\n\n出走半生，归来仍是少年。这句其实改编于东坡的一句词，词写给自己一个乌台诗案牵连被贬的伉俪夫妇 --《定风波·常羡人间琢玉郎》，其中提到 “万里归来颜愈少”\n\n如果你已有孩子，尽量不要那么焦虑吧，不要把养孩子当做一场精细的科学实验，不要像个直升机一样在孩子头顶盘旋，现在的精细教育，一个孩子都快把六个大人逼死了，其实孩子不需要很多东西，也不需要跟别人攀比，这些都是家长自己心里的问题。这样你的孩子或许才能不叛逆，彬彬有礼，拥有一份出走半生仍是少年的正能量心态。\n\n来自查理.芒格的看法\n孩子来到这个世界是带着预设的半成品，你只需要看着他们自己发展就行了。小时候害羞的长大了依然害羞，固执的孩子长大了还是刚愎自用，没有什么办法能改变这些，但你可以改变自己的态度。\n\n智商回归\n智商有个均值回归现象，如果越来越聪明，一代比一代强，人类就不是今天这个样子，每代人都是不同的馈赠，只是今天你以文化课的成绩去衡量。\n例如数学是有天赋的，大概 $\\frac{1}{2000}$ ~$\\frac{1}{10000}$，才能有特别特殊的人才，他的大脑拓扑结构特适合学数学，但不等于科科都强，或者这辈子能比别人幸福。很多过于理性的人终身不幸福，因为他不能被周围的人理解。\n与孩子的对话\n不是我听不见，是你的脾气让我根本听不见，听不懂\n55-38-7定律\n\n当你跟一个人说话时，对方能感知到的，是\n\n55% 的形象和态度\n38% 的眼神和语气\n7% 的具体内容\n\n\n当你带着脾气跟孩子说话，孩子真正听到的只有 7%，那就意味着，你不得不反反复复地吼叫（你以为自己说的很清楚，但实际上，孩子完全没接收到你的信息，他们的大脑还在考虑安全的问题）\n当大脑遭遇到突发危机时，只会有三种情况：攻击，逃跑，冰冻。这就是孩子表现出来的行为，要么反抗，要么逃避，要么就是呆住。\n夸孩子的套路：FFC模型\n\n\nFeeling，指的是给我什么感受\n\n\nFact，感受的事实依据\n\n\nCompare，跟什么比较\n\n\n举个栗子\n\n女儿，妈妈今天很欣慰，我今天什么都没说，你就把锅洗了，居然比我洗的还认真\n\n牛娃培养\n在孩子教育的修罗场，想改变，只有两个办法：\n\n\n换个环境；\n\n\n不换环境，但无视无孔不入的环境压力。要是选第二条修罗之路。你将带着孩子，与周边的大环境为敌，你们将成为现行牛蛙试炼教育体系中的异类，绝不是一条容易坚持下去的道路。\n\n\n\n而作为异类在学校压力也是很大的，娃很难开心起来，对其成长也有影响\n\n你选择不屈服于现行教育体制，人家牛蛙整天在书山题海中搏击，你孩子虽然见多识广，但考试成绩不跻身上流，走国内的高考独木桥肯定会被挤下去，所以有种看法是最早初中毕业，最晚高中毕业，必须得出国，从背背背跳到想想想的国度，开启另一份残酷竞争。如果作为父母，不具备今后送孩子出国留学的经济基础，那你和你的孩子其实没有太多的选择空间。\n一个人的命运，既取决于宏观上的时代大环境，又取决于不可知的偶然性。决定未来富贵贫贱的因素，其实读书只在第五位，就像老古言说的，一命二运三风水，四积阴德五读书。直白点说，排在教育之前的还有出身与天赋（学区房有一个最大的不确定性是政策性风险），父母的格局和境界也是孩子出身的一种，起跑线的一种。\n让孩子提升认知，增长见识，关键是从理解学习的乐趣和世界的本质出发，从“要我学”变成“我要学”，有理工科的思维思辨模式和文科的表达能力，是最好的组合，如果还能有一定的艺术欣赏能力，就更好了。整体一生，最需要给孩子的，是理性的思维习惯和健全的人格素养。\n旅行是保持学习，获得不同思维方式的最佳方式之一（磨炼差异化思维，与他人和谐相处）。看看世界是什么样子，比纯待在学校有意义，尽量多带他们出去旅行，孩子的人生都将因此而改变。\n饱和教育\n普通人生活中能用到的数学知识，学到初二就够了，二次函数都用不上，再往后学的什么集合，指数函数，对数函数，复数，数列，立体几何，解析几何，空间向量，大部分早就还给老师了，但为什么我们还要学习呢？就是要透过数学，掌握这种相对复杂的思维能力。\n\n补充一句：深度的科研，应用技术，及理论层面，都离不开这些数学内容\n\n言传身教\n\n家长陷入了我执（不知足），其实孩子病了你只希望他赶快好。\n\n我执的本质应该是执我，而不是去执别人，孩子在弹钢琴的家庭长大，大概率会掌握会乐于弹，地球上只有不合格的父母。\n身教重言传，爹妈不看书孩子为什么看书。大家（母鸡）特别中意生一个蛋，然后告诉这个蛋，你要变凤凰。她/他忘了他自己要先变成凤凰，一起努力变成凤凰。教育不是教他，育他，而是一同成长，教育我们自己。做了父母最好有共处时间，当没有时间陪伴就算了，还不能很好的做榜样就比较惋惜。\n\n父母通常在12岁之后就不是孩子的榜样了，因为他必须逆反，对你批判否定，此时需要更高的榜样。提前引导认知一个好的榜样给他很有必要\n\n孩子的教育是将自己化作以一座桥，一个梯子，让孩子看到外面广阔的世界以及世界深处的真相。教育就是让孩子看见什么，带着他看，行走在历史、科学和现实中，能带多高带多高，培养其眼界和胸怀。从养育上看，有这么几点重要的要素：\n\n眼界和胸怀，自然有灵气。也影响其价值观\n对人和自然的仁慈和悲悯\n学识和教养，增加底蕴\n训练专注和自制。出活和迅速的长进离不开这种状态，在时间的催化下，就显现出不同\n慢慢培养其圆融和自在\n\n三代人培养一代人\n其实是他需要从爷爷奶奶姥姥姥爷那一辈，他就要有一个很好的表率，因为他会跨代影响到下一代。\n你会发现很多高知家庭，孩子后来的气质是不一样的，从小看到的东西生态或文化的基因已经构成了一种他意愿的积极向上。贵是指精神的高贵，是有一个过程。在物质上完成脱贫的中国，精神上脱贫的路还很长。\n静待花开vs拔苗助长\n家长其实在很多的要求脱离了孩子当前的一个认知的局限，让孩子在该玩的时候去各种书山字海，等孩子真的该书山字海的时候，他烦了他开始玩了，因为你太早的让他干了不该干的事儿，然后他一定要补偿过来。\n应有的人格心态\n说句难听的话，没几个孩子长大真成功了，最需要最实用的教育是：如何在没能成功的人生里随遇而安，此时，那些“没用”的东西(如艺术、品味)就变得弥足珍贵，孩子长大不会痛苦失落，做父母的就成功了，当然这不是劝你一起始就随遇而安。\n人生识字忧患始，看清了世道险恶，依然选择良善，看清了命途多舛，依然选择乐观，这才是强者应具备的最难得的生存智慧和生命品格。\n我们无法改变出身，无法改变环境，我们能改变的，只有内心的态度。\n\n同样是前途未卜，在王维笔下，是”劝君更尽一杯酒，西出阳关无故人“，在高适笔下，则成了”莫愁前路无知己，天下谁人不识君“的慷慨豪迈。\n同样是咏梅，陆游笔下成了”无意苦争春，一任群芳妒，零落成泥碾作尘，只有香如故“的落寞寂寥，但在毛泽东笔下，成了”俏也不争春，只把春来报，待到山花烂漫时，她在丛中笑“的豁达开朗。\n\n\n成绩差不代表人品差，分数低不代表能力低。作为家长，对孩子三观，人品，情商的教育才谓当仁不让，不可忽视，说是进入社会的长期成功因素不为过。\n成绩好就报效国家，成绩不好就承欢膝下。\n\n认知拓展过程\n\n要不要让孩子从小留学？\n这要反问你的孩子将来会在哪里生活，要知道，各国的基础教育都是为了在那个国家生活好而准备的。它的目的是获得在特定社会生活所需要的最重要的一些东西，包括让你形成对世界的看法，学会一些基本方法和工具，便于将来继续学习具体的技能。\n按杨振宁的说法，把中学生送到美国去教育是一个非常危险的事情，因为美国整个的社会是一个放纵型社会，好处是容许一个人个性发展，但走的太极端。年轻人容易受同学影响堕落，掉下去就回不来。中国的教育对于90分以下的学生是好的，可以使得这些小孩成材，将来做一个对国家前进有用处的人，90 分以上的小孩在美国占便宜，因为他不需要规规矩矩的念书，他自己就可以吸收进去，海阔天空的发展更有利，尤其是对于最聪明的人。千千万万规规矩矩努力的学生是新中国成功的基石，没有中国的教育制度，不可能有现今的改开成就。你是独奏家固然了不起，构建大交响乐团更需要协作合奏的人。\n当你理解基础教育的目的，也就能明白为什么编程和奥数这样的课程，对很多小学生来说是浪费时间，因为基础教育阶段并不需要学习这么具体的技能，这样反而可能耽搁他们的全面发展。\n人到高中，一个人接受的其实仍然是全方位的教育（因为人类寿命的增加，社会分工变得越来越复杂，基础教育不得不延长），所以中学阶段的教育，其实就是在小学教育的基础上再包一个同心圆。\n高等教育如何理解\n其实到了大学生认知边界仍然是个圆，本科教育虽然有专业之分，仍然有通识教育的成分，大学学的，未必会做那方面的事情，只不过有了全面的了解。在高等教育阶段， 尽量争取学的非常广，因为知识是相通的。人应该像一个圆规，扎的深，画的圈大。\n而到了硕士研究生阶段，人的知识体系重心真正开始往一个方向偏移，因为人没有时间和精力在每一个方向都前进了。\n硕士和博士有什么区别？\n\n硕士是学会使用前人经验，解决实际问题；\n而博士则是需要创造出前人不知道的知识（也就是图上超越原有边界那个突出的红色部分）。\n\n真实的世界可能是下面这张图所描绘的，知识的边界比人的认知边界要广阔得多。\n\n公立教育体系的内核\n教育既是现代社会的最大福利，也是最大的枷锁，不要对学校的教育有任何的幻想。\n\n中国的教育是叫人听话服从奉献的地方；\n西方的教育是你是最棒的，我们生而平等，但连小九九都整不明白。\n\n真正的教育是教育我们的孩子寻找生命的意义，自己存在的意义，爱自己，爱他人，勇敢的去走自己的路，面对自己的责任，然后这有另外一个名字，叫精英教育，是需要很多很多钱的，需要教育的人博雅宽广，学校里一码数理化的劳动技术教育，东方西方都在把孩子教育成工具，让国家政府提供真正的教育是不现实的，因为成本太高了。\n父母也是被这套体系灌输大的，嘴上抱怨自己是燃料，但让他摆脱燃料思维，还得跟你拼。要想醒悟过来，需要更多时间这些思想剥离，这一过程如同敲骨吸髓让人痛苦，如同三观重塑内耗极大。\n是思想在统治这个世界，古今中外都一样，人类历史就是一个精英与平民，农民与地主的游戏，洋洋得意玩了几千年，为了让这个游戏一直玩下去，就不要不停生产并往里面添加更多平民或农民，社会分配利益的模式是一个人所处的社会位置，教育是一个给底层进阶的狭窄通道。\n要想让孩子通过教育在未来有一个好位置。首先，尽可能的多教育自己，实际上很多父母对孩子的焦虑本质是对自己无能的宣泄，和对生活的不满，是自我认知的匮乏。一切都是废话，想鸡娃，那就努力搞钱。\n\n\n有至少30%的孩子真的不适合读书，要提前想好出路。不要完美，尝试成为老师的工具（那些智力和个性都比较平庸的人大部分都被应试教育毁灭，他们把一生中最好的年华浪费掉了）回头看七十年代出头的最有希望的两类人，一种是智力出色对付题海战术之外还有时间发展自己兴趣的人，另一种就是那些没考上大学或者干脆辍学的人。\n\n\n有5%的孩子不用管他，他也能211、985\n\n约翰-伯努利花了半年时间整出来最速降线的一般解问题，得意洋洋去挑战牛顿，而牛顿花了半天时间解决问题\n牛顿一辈子没画出来的正 17 边形，高斯一晚上就画出来了\n\n\n\n剩下的比的就是钱，不要对基础教育有任何幻想，一切只能靠自己\n\n\n\n应试教育本质不是教育，是圈层选拔（只要跟考试有关）。解题技巧在人生中没什么直接用处、实用价值，但训练了大脑的连接思维方式，另外也可以说筛选的是性格，坚持做一件自己不喜欢的事并把它做好，有责任感，这决定了一个人发展的上限。\n圈层选拔进入到大学之后忽然进入下一轮次的选拔，除开想做研究式的好好学习，一定要了解更多关于通识的东西（Liberal Arts）。\n\n此阶段这个世界没有正确答案，到处全都是正确答案。\n从应试教育的角度看，总是有对有错，但Liberal Arts角度答案不同，关键是视角问题。\n\n\n驴论\n学校只是把你培养成一个怎么转圈转的更好的驴，好学校就是把你培养成一头好驴，你怎么样获得真正的自由和快乐，实际一点来讲，就是挣更多的钱，这个不是学校能教你的，你要跳出驴的思维，要去想我怎么能当一个农场主，这甚至是学校不鼓励你那么做的。它就不会告诉你你们这些驴都生活在一个农场上。\n怎么成为一个农场主呢，先承认自己是一个不优秀的驴，你放下想要去做一头好驴的执念，你自然而然就走另一条道了。\n结语\n有很多关乎儿童成长的书，简直汗牛充栋，不知道怎么选时，就去樊登那去找吧，内容没毛病，看一本足够，其余的都是修行。\n父母子女的缘分\n为人父母和为人子女，这辈子这是一种缘分，你们之间真正能相处的时间（考虑到上学，上班的开销，睡觉的时间），很短。小的时候你要照顾他，他有了自我意识自己开始有更强的独立精神后，你可能管不了他了，工作以后他来看你已经变成了你的一种奢望了，你们真正能相处的时间我相信几年吧。\n\n据统计，儿女高中毕业后，一生跟父母相处的时间就已过了93%，能陪伴的时间只剩了7%\n人类能留下亲子之情已经是很幸运了，自然界的幼崽成熟后，多数几乎一辈子不会再见到父母，这样的认知是不是很正能量！\n\n这就是你们一生的缘分，何必上那么多枷锁，大家都活一辈子，换句话讲，他过的好不好，跟你没关，你觉得你过得好不好，你要怨你的父母吗？你自认为你改变所有事情你才能幸福，后来你才弄明白，你改变你自己就幸福了，把握现在，自己做好，孩子会跟着你的方式去做的，你快乐了，他就快乐了，他是你的影子，是你的印随效应。\n给孩子讲什么叫成功，什么叫幸福，他是体会不到的，这些词对成年人来讲都很奢侈，更别说对孩子。孩子快乐很简单，而成人简单很快乐。你只要简单了，快乐了，孩子自然就快乐了。\n千言万语一句话\n众生皆苦，愿对孩子献上无条件的❤️\n其实孩子幼儿期远比你想象中更爱你。当我们心情不好控制不住会发脾气，甚至对孩子打骂，然而当孩子心情不好时我们却制止他们发脾气还对他们加以批评甚至教训。为什么我们难以做到的事情却要求孩子做到，而孩子不但不会心生怨恨还会想办法取悦我们，孩子其实也是这世上曾经最疼爱你的人。换句话说，曾几何时，孩子对母亲的爱比母爱更纯粹。\n\n从某种角度讲，我们的人生都是所谓的二手的人生，父母总会把他们的经验，他们的喜怒哀乐加到我们身上，只是孩子和父母都不自知罢了。有一本《带蛤蟆先生看心理医生》讲这方面挺多，对情绪原理感兴趣可以传送过去看看。\n不要把劲儿都使在孩子身上，如果你自己充实，快乐，有责任感，有情绪管理能力，孩子会模仿你的。教育从来不是要求，而是影响，道无他，唯爱与榜样而已。真正觉醒的家庭，只改变自己，不改变孩子。人的最佳状态是找到自己不与任何人绑定的人生使命，好好享受人生这场游戏。\n你给孩子真正的财富正是在于你突破了你曾经遭受的种种限制一路披荆斩棘走到今天的经历和力量，以及你继续这样走向未来更加成熟通达的智慧，拥有这样力量和智慧的孩子，他以后会怎样呢？莫小瞧了自己，也小瞧了你的孩子，享受过程，相信自己，相信就是最大的力量。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"信息系统安全等级保护","url":"/%E7%AD%89%E4%BF%9D%E5%88%86%E7%BA%A7.html","content":"\n等级保护定义\n《网络安全法》规定&quot;国家实行网络安全等级保护制度&quot;，公司应当按照网络安全等级保护制度的要求，履行安全保护义务，不履行的将会面临相关法律责任的处罚，要求各企业借助等保推动风险隐患问题改进。\n《计算机信息系统安全保护等级划分准则（GB 17859-1999）》，将系统划分为 5 个级别：\n\n\n\n\n定级要求\n防护水平\n处理能力\n恢复能力\n\n\n\n\n一级：用户自主保护级\n信息系统收到破坏后，会对公民，法人和其它组织的合法权益造成损害，担不损害国家安全，社会秩序和公共利益。\n防护免受来自个人的、拥有很少资源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、一般的自然灾难、以及其他相当危害程度的威胁所造成的关键资源损害\n-\n在自身遭到损害后，能够恢复部分功能\n\n\n二级：系统审计保护级\n破坏后，会对公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益产生严重损害，或对社会秩序和公共利益造成损害，但不损害国家安全\n防护免受来自外部小型组织的、拥有少量资源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、 一般的自然灾难、以及其他相当危害程度的威胁所造成的重要资源损害\n能够发现重要的安全漏洞和处置安 全事件\n自身遭到损害后，能够在一段时间内恢复部分功能\n\n\n三级：安全标记保护级。三级以上（含三级）信息系统应明确网络安全负责人\n破坏后，会对社会秩序和公共利益造成严重损害，或者对国家安全造成损害，或对公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益产生特别严重损害。\n在统一安全策略下防护免受来自外部有组织的团体、拥有较为丰富资源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、较为严重的自然灾难、以及其他相当危害程度的威胁所造成的主要资源损害\n能够及时发现、监测攻击行为和处置安全事件\n自身遭到损害后，能够较快恢复绝大部分功能\n\n\n四级:结构化保护级\n破坏后，会对社会秩序和公共利益造成特别严重损害，或者对国家安全造成严重损害\n应能够在统一安全策略下防护免受来自国家级别的、敌对组织的、拥有丰富资 源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、严重的自然灾难\n能够及时发现、监测发现攻击行为和安全事件\n在自身遭到损害后，能够迅速恢复所有功能\n\n\n五级:访问验证保护级\n破坏后，会对国家安全造成特别严重损害\n略\n略\n略\n\n\n\n\n一般来说，公司是一到四级。二级以上（含二级）必须参加等保测评工作。\n二级系统每两年进行一次等保测评，三级每一年，四级每半年\n三级等保是对非银行机构的最高等级保护认证\n举两个四级的例子：国家级广播电视中心播出系统；国有商业银行、全国性股份制商业银行和中国邮政储蓄银行的核心业务信息系统或综合业务信息系统\n\n\n等保 2.0 安全通用要求\n每一级的标准都有详细的技术和管理指导，可查阅详细的标准文件，摘抄太长，只简要列一下标准骨架。\nmindmap\n  root((安全通用要求))\n    技术要求\n      安全物理环境\n      安全通信网络\n      安全区域边界\n      安全计算中心\n      安全管理中心\n    管理要求\n      安全管理制度\n      安全管理机构\n      安全管理人员\n      安全建设管理\n      安全运维管理\n概念解释\n社会秩序\n\n影响国家机关，企事业单位、社会团体的生产秩序、经营秩序、教学科研秩序、医疗卫生秩序\n影响公共场所活动秩序、公共交通秩序\n影响人民群众生活秩序\n其它影响社会秩序的事项\n\n公共利益\n不特定社会成员所共同享有的，维持其生产、生活、教育、卫生等方面的利益，表现为：\n\n社会成员使用公共设施\n社会成员获取公开信息资源\n社会成员获取公共服务等\n\n国家安全\n\n影响国家政权稳固和领土主权、海洋权益完整\n影响国家统一、民族团结和社会稳定\n影响国家社会主义市场经济秩序和文化实力\n其它影响国家安全的事项\n\n损害程度\n一般损害\n\n对客体造成一定损害和影响，经采取恢复和弥补措施，可消除部分影响\n工作职能受到局部影响，业务能力有所降低但不影响主要功能的执行，出现较轻法律问题，较低财产损失，有限的社会不良影响，对其他组织和个人造成较低损害\n\n严重损害\n\n指对客体造成严重损害，经采取恢复和弥补措施，仍产生较大影响\n工作职能受到严重影响，业务能力显著下降且严重影响主要功能的执行，出现较严重的法律问题，较高的财产损失，较大范围的社会不良影响，对其他组织和个人造成较严重损害\n\n特别严重损害\n\n是指对客体造成特别严重损害，后果特别严重，影响重大且无法弥补\n工作职能收到特别严重影响或丧失行使能力，业务能力严重下降且或功能无法执行，出现极其严重的法律问题，极高的财产损失，大范围的社会不良影响，对其他组织和个人造成非常严重损害\n\n定级参考\n伤害程度定级\n\n\n\n系统服务安全被破坏时所侵害的客体\n对客体的侵害程度\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n一般损害\n严重损害\n特别严重损害\n\n\n公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益\n第一级\n第二级\n第三级\n\n\n社会秩序、公共利益\n第二级\n第三级\n第四级\n\n\n国家安全\n第三级\n第四级\n第五级\n\n\n\n业务类型定级\n云平台类型系统（IAAS、PAAS、SAAS）\n\n考虑属于系统基础设施，一般建议至少定三级。IAAS，PAAS 需要着重考虑\n不得低于云上部署的系统最高级别\n\n在线交易类型系统\n\n一般至少定三级，另参考行业标准\n必须具备业务监管部门下发的业务许可，才能开展系统备案工作\n\n大数据平台\n\n涉及个人信息处理的大数据平台，至少定三级\n\n最高法定义用户信息泄露『造成严重后果』定义：致使泄露行踪轨迹信息，通信内容，征信信息，财产信息 500 条以上的；致使泄露住宿信息、通信记录、健康生理信息、交易信息等其他可能影响人身、财产安全的用户信息5000 条以上的；致使泄露如上规定以外用户信息 5w 条以上的。\n系统涉及个人信息类型及数量超过以上数量的，会建议定三级。行业主管部门有另行定义的，参考主管部门定义为主\n\n\n处理个人信息必须获得个人信息主体授权，并需制定个人信息保护相关制度规范\n\n应对加固举例\n标准的制定有很多服务商的参与，各家也各有应对方案整理，举例如下\nmindmap\n  false\n    威胁预测（攻击控制）\n      威胁情报预警\n      应急预案及演练\n    威胁防护（事件预防）\n      安全策略优化\n      安全基线评估加固\n      系统上线安全检查\n      安全产品运行维护\n    响应处置（事件控制）\n      安全事件研判分析\n      安全应急响应处置\n      安全事件实时通报\n    持续检测（事件检测）\n      全流量风险分析\n      网站检测\n      web失陷检测\n      渗透测试\n参考\n1.FREEBUF 等保2.0看这一篇就够了 ↩2.中南民族大学 深入解读等保2.0 ↩3.微信公众号 等保信息系统定级指导（国标+行标） ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"简读中国史摘记","url":"/%E7%AE%80%E8%AF%BB%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%8F%B2.html","content":"\n\n摘记最晚于2019年12月2日，那是一个在地铁上还不用戴口罩的日子\n\n地理文化论\n祖先崇拜是中国特有的，也是地理决定论，能安心发展农业，老年人的经验就非常有用。不像希腊要航海靠年轻人，中东战争冲突厉害，也要靠年轻人。自给自足的小农经济，是这种关系的保障。中国自西向东的河流也进一步强化此种情况（纬度相似资源出产也相似）。\n像中东文明中。资源必须靠互换和社会分工的地理环境，血缘纽带断裂就被神庙关系所取代。\n\n世界上大部分民族关于亲属的称谓25个，中国的有350个，分的很细。\n\n青铜器战车等都是从中东传入中国，因为地理的优势，战争压力较小，青铜器的发展方向朝向了礼器。不像中东朝向战争和耕种。中国民间仍然用石器耕种。\n西周的开创性\n商代的上天是只属于商族的上天。周代的上台创造了一项新统治宣言，上天是所有人的上天，改朝换代是因为前朝德行不足了，天命被替代。改信鬼神为信天命。在更广泛的宗族分封下，在一套套理法、仪式下，周代持续的够久。使得这条规则被后代普遍采用。这其实是创造性的，因为世界其它地方到今后很长的时间都在围绕侍奉鬼神干事，周代直接摆脱了宗教束缚，成为致力于现世幸福的世俗文化国家。\n嫡长子继承制也是周代订立，解决商代混乱的弊病。甚至这也是中国政治远凌驾于经济的根源（配合不能僭越的各种级别规定）。所谓周礼就是规定不同辈分的人、关系远近不同的人，见面该怎么行礼，平时该怎么交往。因为他就是一个家天下的封建朝代。\n\n我们的贵族时代在公元前就结束了，所以今天的中国人确实已经很难理解春秋战国时代老祖宗们的内心世界。秦汉的上台塑造了流传至今的文化。\n烽火戏诸侯别解\n周幽王的烽火戏诸侯虽然是史记记载，但稍显简单夸张，一把烽火诸侯不可能同时到达（地理距离）。但反映周天子已经号令不动诸侯（亲缘关系已越来越疏远），周平王迁都洛阳，东周春秋战国开始。\n东周纷争\n权威协商崩溃，森林法则统治。\n\n\n春秋时代战争是贵族游戏，灭掉的都是大国旁的小国，战争很少超过3天。战国就功利明显，就是为了消灭和掠夺。\n\n\n春秋时代师不伐丧，战国时代国君去世恰是出兵的好时机。\n\n\n铁器改造关系\n铁器在春秋末战国初出现，极大的提高了农业生产力。原来的诸侯国更像是碉堡据点，之间的空地可能没人要，住的是野民或异族。铁器出现后，空地大量被开发，国与国之间就接壤，利益冲突就明显了，战争来也。\n家国逆转\n秦之前，家大于国，这时候伍子胥为父仇报复楚国，并且将楚王鞭尸，在离他较近的史书中对其是肯定的，没有将其视作叛徒。\n而后，国大于家。政府的政策将小共同体社会打散，让多子的必须分拆居住，在自然村基本很少找到同姓的（非宗族化乡村）。三国时虽然世家大族与皇权分庭抗礼，但皇权直接控制的区域基层仍然是被打散。大家看到的一个村一个族的现象，基本是宋代后宗族复兴的结果。\n没有国大于家，想提高国家动员能力和汲取能力是不可能的，就像40万人修长城，50万人戍五岭，70万人修始皇陵，修阿房宫，都是周天子是不敢想象的。\n秦制的延续\n异人始皇帝\n秦始皇从来没没自称天子，他抛弃西周信天命，干的不好君权可以换人的天命观。还废除了谥号制度，觉得臣议论君是不被允许的，没有这套怎么搞，那自己就是始皇帝，二世三世往后数。可没想到二世而亡。还不立皇后，觉得没有女人能与他平起平坐。\n秦灭亡的原因是统一之后，对百姓的汲取体系还在高速的运转。\n郡县制的磨合\n中央政府一方面希望省一级政府大到可以集中力量来平息各地起义，另一方面，又希望它小到没有能力反叛中央。这个郡县平衡是历史上摸索了很久的。\n秦汉\n秦40郡，汉觉得太少，面积太大，不好控制，分成100郡，又太多，管起来太累，就又搞13战区，变成州郡县三级。\n魏晋唐\n魏晋南北朝吸收东汉三国的教训，州越整越小，搞出200个州，唐代直接整出350多个州，皇帝能记住？唐太宗写满一屏风，头疼。\n宋元明清\n宋吸取唐的教训，不给省一级政府集权身份，搞制衡分立，军权，财权，人事权分由不同的人执掌，这也导致宋对外敌能力较弱。\n元觉得宋这样搞法太没效率了，一上来就划分行省，集权管理。他少数名族，派的长官也是蒙古人。他不像汉人政权害怕地方官和地方社会搞成一体对抗中央。清朝也和元朝一样没这个担忧，明朝就不行，得仿宋，所以在御外敌或镇压起义时就很不得力。后期设总督巡抚集权已经晚了，镇压不力，导致亡国。\n央地博弈\n汉人王朝都有一个特点：一开始都是二级政府，而且坚决不愿设立面积较大或者权力统一的省级政府，但是后来因为省一级政府力量太小，地方动荡无法平定，只好下放权力，让省一级政区扩大，集权，以便有能力镇压起义，结果变成三级政府。然而地方每一次权力太大，总会导致分裂局面出现，新的王朝接受前代的教训，再一次强干弱枝，这么个循环往替(二三级间，只有少数民族王朝不担心这个)。\n第二个规律是上一个规律下的小规律，省一级政府内的分权和集权，就跟上面讲的宋元明清循环的区别一样。秦在已开始是分权设计的（三权分立），导致地方很弱，无力对抗中央，当东汉黄巾起义，不得不集权镇压，又导致割据。\n还有第三个规律，皇帝老不相信地方官。所以派巡视组，巡视组再固化成新地方大员，再派新巡视组。导致地方大员的名字常觉得很怪，像是个动词。如刺史，行省，巡抚，元代的行中书省事。\n隋唐夷狄之风\n隋文帝怕老婆那是因为鲜卑文化中女人地位高，贵母而轻父（母为外人，容易引起部落间冲突），唐初的府兵制也来自于鲜卑的部落兵制，当兵有荣誉感，免徭役，汉人耕种养活府兵，战斗力强。\n后来开始募兵制后，当兵就为吃饭，战斗力就不行了。均田制也来自于草原的习俗。\n四川遭遇的兵祸，也算是严重。南明将领给孙可望的信里说，四川荆棘塞道，野兽成群，人烟灭绝，偶尔碰到人也是残疾。\n帝国经济的逻辑\n中国对商人的防范成型于春秋的管仲，他认为财富集中到巨富个人手中，是非常危险的。有钱则难以以禄来驱使，剩下一些很穷的光脚不怕穿鞋的，以威也驱使不动，对国君都是不利的，最好的原则是力出一孔，这一孔就是君主的赐予。经济权力由国家统一掌握，这样的国家才强大无敌。\n财政的循环崩溃\n开国皇帝订立的轻徭薄赋执行不下去:\n\n一来官僚系统膨胀开销要从老百姓头上刮\n二来皇族膨胀（如明代皇族由国家供养，营收就靠生娃，设定标准有问题，皇族膨胀到100w人，导致多个省的赋税总量还不够供养本省皇族）\n三来各种不便或新增成本都要算到老百姓头上。\n\n鸦片战争的侧面\n自大露软肋\n乾隆因执着于英使臣不向其下跪的问题，没有听到西洋最先进物件的讲解，自己看不懂以为跟之前的无甚差别，错失了追赶的时机。为了显示军威，让英国人所到之地，都全副武装列队展示。不秀不要紧，这下把家底都抖出来了。英国人发现中国人还在用200年前的玩意。清军的技术还停留在明末的水准上。构筑了鸦片战争的军事信心。\n帝国的财政\n为啥鸦片战争打了一会就停了？不是英军不敢持久战，其实是因为大清的财政吃不住了。鸦片战争的开销已占到清全年财政的70%（贪污与装备重造，贪污占1/3，总开销3000万两，财政一年刚4000万两），而远道而来的英军开销只占到全年财政的8%。打下去清庭要破产。\n中国的人口是英国的27倍，财政收入英国却是中国的4倍。\n工业革命要素\n工业革命的两大促进动因\n\n人工工资高（有动力改进技术）+资源配套。阿姆斯特丹和伦敦的人工工资都很高（因生活水平高），但工业革命为啥没出现在荷兰，这就要说到另一个因素（煤炭资源），因机器是钢铁制造的，需要冶炼，荷兰在自然资源方面有天然缺陷。\n资本。西班牙不可谓没钱，但因为地理原因造就的落后的封建统治和沉重的税收，使得钱并未促成制造业发展，而是养就的炫耀性消费。\n\n现代化发展文化土壤\n现代化除了制度原因之外，还需要文化土壤。提供这种土壤有两种文化，清教文化和儒家文化，共同特征是积极进取，勤奋节俭。\n\n\n清教文化强调教徒在尘世中必须恪尽职守，将取得成功看做是上帝选择的证明，将饥饿与贫困看做是上帝对懒惰者的惩罚。\n\n\n儒家更为入世，不追求虚无缥缈的来世，天行健，君子以自强不息，齐家治国平天下。\n\n\n西葡法的天主教文化是种中世纪性格的宗教，宣扬受罪是好事，是未来获得永恒拯救的前提，既然托付给了上帝，索性万事不急。\n天主教文化圈的时间观念比较淡薄，能拖就拖，戏称明日文化，西班牙人对每一个要求，都回答以快乐的明天。\n结语\n每一个国家的发展道路，都是由它的地理条件和文化传统等各种因素汇集而成，无所谓对错。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"管好自己，自我修炼","url":"/%E7%AE%A1%E5%A5%BD%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%EF%BC%8C%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html","content":"\n大家谈及你能管理他人，首先都说你要管好自己，封面是知乎上一位分享的管理清单，类似于脑图但其实分解的还不够细，保不了你做出偏差或执行不足，离系统化的全面还欠了那么一步，可能最近在思考培训中接触的流程化-动作分解的作法，着了道（抽象的不容易错，细致的各有各的练法），面对任何内容都要的是聪明的模仿，带有思考的模仿，不断进化的是你的认知。\n管好自己，自我修炼\n\n\n人的维度，要学会通过培训和辅导他人，做一名教练，建流程去管理你的团队\n\n\n事的维度，要主动去定义问题，做一个主动轮，驱动事情落地\n\n\n管理是干出来的，将管理动作嵌入到日常的工作中，才不用疲于奔命，帮助你做一个收放自如的管理者\n管理日历工具\n打粮草-团队管理\n\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n团队交接\n1.检查团队交接制度，抽查下属间交接\n\n\n鼓舞士气\n1.解决一线问题找体感\n\n\n立威立规\n1.年度施政演讲，提出/重申团队合作规矩\n\n\n激励老人\n1.每季度与下属1vs1聊天，了解发展，收入，情感三方面需求2.组织一次有员工家属参加的互动活动3.对岗位工作出现审美疲劳的老员工安排适当的轮岗\n\n\n考核下属\n1. 对员工业绩表现进行及时反馈2. 反馈下属上月/季度业绩表现并沟通本月/季度目标3. 沟通去年业绩表现，提出今年业绩期望，制定并沟通KPI\n\n\n\n打粮草-战略落地\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n向上管理\n1. 写周报，抄送上级（上级的上级），并批改下属周报2. 适时的一对一谈话，汇报周期进展，确定新工作方向3. 全年业绩述职复盘，沟通去年业绩表现，听取今年的期望4. 可行的话，邀请上级和团队一起实地工作，让他了解你们的工作\n\n\n战略落地\n1. 拆解业绩积木，计算资源缺口\n\n\n争取资源\n1.和兄弟部门负责人吃饭2.复盘本月业绩达成情况，并利用复盘机会继续争取资源3.计划完成后进行资源申请\n\n\n任务分配\n1. 分配月度目标和资源，并可视化展示\n\n\n化解冲突\n1. 对资源使用情况进行矫正2. 颁布年度资源分配权重原则\n\n\n带队冲锋\n1. 备战期切换作战状态，冲锋期带队冲锋\n\n\n\n增肥力-团队管理\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n人岗匹配\n1. 制定编制预算，绘制组织架构图，标注关键岗位和缺编情况\n\n\n招聘面试\n1.面试候选人，优化面试流程\n\n\n招募牛人\n1. 回顾&amp;调整内部推荐制度2. 出席行业论坛并发言\n\n\n引领新人\n1.新员工午餐与新员工一周的关怀2.听取新人汇报一个月的工作情况3.优化新人入职体验\n\n\n培训发展\n1.组织一次外部专家的讲座\n\n\n经验萃取\n1. 在于优秀员工或指导他，或你自己的工作中萃取\n\n\n考察下属\n1.考察潜力表现，打出排序\n\n\n价值规范\n1. 进行价值观的宣导，搜集正面和反面案例2.对价值观行为进行评估\n\n\n文化打造\n1. 组织一次”朋友的团建“2.”队友的团建“，宣导使命愿景和文化价值观3. 年底业绩任务冲锋期，组织一次”战友的团建“\n\n\n人才梯队\n1.人才九宫格找出各梯队下属，对盘点结果进行沟通\n\n\n人才盘活\n1. 制定下属IDP个人发展计划&amp;绩效沟通\n\n\n团队学习\n1.绘制团队学习地图，并更新课题负责人2.攻克3个课题，并形成培训微课程\n\n\n\n增肥力-战略落地\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n业务探索\n1. 用业务盘点矩阵和业务优先矩阵对手头工作进行盘点\n\n\n持续优化\n1.优化一条工作流程\n\n\n商业常识\n1. 和兄弟部门回顾联合KPI达成情况，制定下一步的计划\n\n\n战略思维\n1.学习公司战略文件，制定部门的承接工作\n\n\n\nIDP\n指既满足组织要求的岗位能力提升又包括了学习者个性化学习需求的年度学习计划\n通常按时间分解到季度/月份，上级主管也会督促、跟踪员工的学习\n评价成就动机\n为自己/团队设定具有挑战性的目标，并努力实习它\n\n第一级：目标不清晰，安于现状，缺乏工作热情，对待工作得过且过，难以达到要求标准\n第二级：具有上进心，努力将工作做得更好，对自己有较高的标准，乐观面对工作中的困难，设定某个优秀的标准，不断改善工作\n第三级：在仔细权衡代价和利益，利与弊的基础上做出某种决策，克服一切困难，以便获得更大利益\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队","职涯"]},{"title":"精品年代的竞争","url":"/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html","content":"\n由QQ浏览器的背锅遭遇说开去\n看到鹅厂一篇文章反馈用户抱怨QQ浏览器耗费流量，经查其实是其它软件在背后偷跑流量，正巧用户此刻正在使用QQ浏览器。冤~~，某种情况下用户会下意识的把流量消耗归罪于自己常用的东东，特别是历史上有过劣迹（初始版本省流优化并不好），小白用户常有直观思维，包括手机卫士之类的软件其实也不太会用，你的产品对其印象不好，被其直观投诉，背黑锅，惨。。。。从塞班过来的用户亲爱UC，尽管QQ浏览器现在已经明显比UC省流，但用户习惯还是非常难扭转（浏览器成也无用户粘性，败也无用户粘性）。\n针对用户抱怨QQ浏览器的流量消耗问题，为了自证（流量消耗时不在场）加说明自己的特性，QQ浏览器在后续版本中特意突出明显化（通过图表而不是简单数字的形式）了流量消耗统计和节省的流量统计。让用户能更明白，其实你可以看出来对于误解，能采取的手段确实很有限。有更好的用户引导或特性宣传，是产品设计里非常重要的因素。\n精品年代的竞争\n当前已经是精品生存时代，用户见识广，口味挑，远不是几年前的用户寂寞苦楚，插扁担都开花的年代了。\n\n\n\n区分红海和蓝海，精确分析市场，天时地利人和\n\n\n营销费用很贵，最好出来就是精品，否则只能找个大树干爹\n\n\n偏要啃竞争对手市场，要高出对手很多才有可能，不断向用户传递，甚至找其他差异化的优势点，甚至还要祈求竞争对手犯错\n\n\n如果你实力雄厚，那可以找准切入点，稳扎稳打，求一小片份额，同时正确评估自己的影响力，别起步阶段就是做武林盟主的架势（这点来自QQ网购）\n\n\n大公司搞创业，人和很重要\n\n\n年轻创业者怎么办\n最好是选择一个还没有固定词汇或字眼能描述你想做的事情的方向\n\n想要在某个领域有所建树，最好选片真正的蓝海，没有词汇可以直接归纳。也没有专家知道该怎么形容。如果你发现自己很难向自己的父母解释自己在干什么。那这可能就是个好方向，失败的可能性很大，但潜在的收益也将很极为可观\n如10年前搞区块链，15年前搞播客\n最好别总想着再开发另一种搜索引擎，或开发另一款天气预报应用，红海里创业太难了\n\n小团队 or 大团队\n\n大公司难做出惊人颠覆，但安全性高\n小团队灵活速度快，易建立成员感情。坏处是工作都得亲手完成，任务没完没了。且公司体量越小，失败率越高\n\n\n需将自己所处的人生阶段结合起来看\n\n对于有孩子的双职工家庭来说，承担风险的难度更大。但如果你孑然一身还年轻，就简单多了。把自己能承担更高风险的优势发挥出来是更优策略，搏一搏，单车变摩托\n渡过难关的一种好办法就是眼光放长远，大家得愿意把回报周期放到十年的尺度上，不能指望两三年就原地起飞，大多数业务都需要十年时间\n\n一个人能在职场上取得成功的关键因素是什么？我们又该如何培养这些能力和品质？\n\n\n找一家重视学习的企业，所在的组织越擅长教学，员工们的能力就越强。换句话说，好公司一定是教学型的公司，而教学的对象就是你的员工\n\n通过同事间的讨论，结对工作，导师合作等，抓住机会为员工提供指导和教育，通过态度和能力完成筛选，帮其成为更好的工作者，更好的人\n\n\n聘用的是态度，培训的是技能\n\n假如你做消费品行业\n文艺复兴\n江山一代新人换旧人，当今的中国是一个什么中国，今天的消费者又是怎样一个消费者。做竞争，弄清形势也重要。老人不曾变，新人有千面。分析新消费群体很重要。\n天时地利人和，地利人和每个人每个公司的条件不一样，整合方法也不一样，但天时对每个人是公平的，不可能你开启一个天时。\n85后，90后一代人已慢慢成为消费市场的主力，他们代表一种中国新的文化意识，比以往的人更加理性，灵活，本土，这是一种更加本土意识的觉醒。（原因：见识更广，发展太快）\n举个例子，中国2012年出境人口超过8000w人次，海外消费超过1000亿美元，今天的中国人什么都见过了。当90一代的孩子进入市场时，将近7成的电影票房都给了国产电影，这也是一种民族特性定位的回归，今后你可以把它叫做中国的文艺复兴时代。见识多了，崇洋但不媚外。\n小时代\n未来的时代是一个小时代，做东西做品牌不可能做到所有人都喜欢。移动互联网让大家更便利的连接，但也分割成了小群体。人类重来没有如此被信息连接过，犹如大航海时代对世界的连接一样辉煌，但与大航海不同的是，人类重新的部落化，而不是在强大工业社会的趋势要求下必须开放拥成一体。\n供给过剩\n文艺复兴+小时代，今后的20年应该能搞出很多花样。但别忘了最重要的，供给过剩，精品自然是必须的，winner take all！\n后记-中心生活是啥\n消费群体变了，活在网上的人类，中心生活是啥\n\n心理实际特征：需要表达自我\n两大传播性主题：娱乐+自由\n娱乐在疯狂吸金，自由永有感染力\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究","时代"]},{"title":"红衣教主互方论","url":"/%E7%BA%A2%E8%A1%A3%E6%95%99%E4%B8%BB%E4%BA%92%E6%96%B9%E8%AE%BA.html","content":"\n体验的力量\n一切行业都是娱乐业。娱乐业最重用户体验，所有的行业都应向（最靠体验的）娱乐业看齐，销售用户体验。\n互联网常谈UE，但判断体验就一个简单的标准，超出预期的才叫用户体验；\n为什么着重提体验问题，因为当前已进入了信息更加透明，流动更快的互联网造就的新时代。商家原来的一套信息不对称的玩法被消解不少。消费者或者市场变了，商家很多却没有变。若技术人员想的是我要用怎样的技术去教育用户，技术怎样高，就非常危险，因为用户选择产品时，往往想的是，这个东西到底好不好用。大企业里有各种创新研究院，觉得非要搞出一个石破天惊的创新技术不可，多数就是落入了这种误区。\n例如微软vista操作系统，着力于创造出一种新语言和文件系统，界面，这导致研发周期很长，但并没有打动用户，相反，从win8开始，微软开始关注开机速度了，小儿科的技术，但对用户来看，却是一个很重要的问题。\n很多创业方面的创新是从改善用户的体验出发，新感觉，新冲击，打动用户的微创新，也会成为占领市场的巨大力量。消费者其实不理性的，都是感性的。他看到一个东西，脑子就用1秒钟不到，就会快速地给你的产品做一个分类，给它定位。\n立足微创新\n\n不要期望某一个版本带来革命，而是要靠很多小版本来实现革命。而且在这个时代，做产品一定要做减法，一定要找对一个点，做到极致。先不说你的资源有限，不够分，就是资源很多，做的产品没特色也不会有鲜明的卖点。思想都是和精益创业想通的。\n在计算机市场上，经常上演的是“次优者胜”，这有点像worse is better。且互联网产品是一个赢家通吃的市场，不成规模想守住一小块市场份额根本不可能。用户膨胀的过程是非常剧烈的，错过了机会，给予你的增长空间机会就没有了。回头看来，中国的触网人群增长真的是很快的，浪潮里多少商业模式发生变化，2005年中国网民是1亿，互联网普及率8%，到2013年，中国网民超6亿，手机网民比电脑网民还多。到2018年，微信都宣称月活账号有10亿，基本中国能上网的人都已经上网了，已经行进到C端市场的顶峰了。再往后，就是挖掘平均用户的时长或付费率了。\n对于创业者，都强调一点，不要满脑子想着做平台，而是要找一个大公司看不到的角落，给用户解决问题，平台是大公司玩儿的事情。颠覆要的是微观力，而不是平台力。\n创新的三种形式\n\n发明（新技术新材料出现越来越难）\n商业模式创新（贵的做成便宜的，收费做成免费的）\n体验上创新（复杂难用东西变简单，笨重变便携）\n\n商业上对市场格局的颠覆，多数都是商业或体验上的创新，而不是可口可乐的秘方或电灯轰动世界。\n颠覆式的创新都是小型创业公司做的事，因为正在做一些成熟企业认为不值得去做的事。**大型企业对一些虽然可能代表市场方向，却不符合其盈利模式或损害的项目上犹豫不决，进退维谷。**就是常说的“欲想成功，必先自宫”。\n微创新最容易犯的错误是不聚焦。衡量什么算微创新，其实有一个很简单的标准：用户会不会用最屌丝的语言在用户间流传。\n微创新还不够，还要思考活下去\n互联网产品，不管是客户端还是Web应用，要赢得用户，首先要找到典型用户群，提供好的用户体验。\n好的用户体验，就得找到能打动用户心扉的那一点，打动有一下子蒙对的，这是运气，有试错试出来的，这就变成了经验。有两点很关键，第一从小处着眼，贴近用户需求心理，第二要小步快跑，快速出击，不断试错。这是微创新的规律。\n强需求产品可以自我发展成强大的渠道，而弱需求产品独立做很难。腾讯的新闻门户靠的就是强大的弹窗渠道。有时弱需求的产品，并不是说不是好产品，而是对渠道的依赖比较大。\n推广模式也就是以怎样的方式接近目标用户群。\n\n在中国，永远不要相信酒香不怕巷子深\n要根据你的用户群和产品，去设计相应的推广方法。（不断应证的过程，也是不断打磨你的产品或发现真实用户群的过程，受益不是一般资源型推广可比）\n\n在传统行业转战互联网时，一定要形成用户这个概念，原来字典里只有客户的概念（客户是上帝），因为客户给企业钱，是衣食父母。当然 钱还是要赚，但要想想谁是你的用户，用户的定义就是你能长期提供一种服务，能长期让他感知到你的存在，保持联系的人，你只有在互联网上积累了足够多的用户，才有能力把其中一些用户转成客户。\n微信对运营商的最可怕之处，是将用户与运营商隔离开了，致使他们根本难以像之前接触客户，开发产品，成为了纯粹的流量商。\n互联网的盈利模式\n\n卖东西（电子商务，互金），卖服务（O2O），利用平台做传统生意，网聚人的力量\n广告，足够多的眼球，自己不能赚钱，就推荐一些其它，就跟免费看电视一定有广告一个道理\n以网游为代表的增值服务\n\n基于免费，还需要好产品，且提供一流的用户体验。\n组织能力\n以用户为中心的企业文化是没法靠奖惩制度建立的，而是靠员工对产品发自心底的热爱，对用户的热爱。作为老板，不仅要以身作则，更要言传身教。但当公司大了，原来好的企业文化会受到稀释，这是一个矛盾，但你要接受，相当于你的员工平均素质水准更大几率是随着公司增长往下走的。\n管理及流程的原本目标，是为了将以往的成功经验/实践变成可复制，保证持续成功。但应对的问题和市场是不断变化的，所以后来人经常不满意公司的现有流程或不理解，这有点像钱穆的书《中国历代政治得失》里讲的问题一样。\n用普通人你就需要一个管理流程，把某些东西模式化流程化。但这种管理一定会带来一个平庸的公司，这就是管理上的一个悖论，要保证不断产生优秀的产品，至少要像开经济特区一样，特殊区域放弃流程，聚集一帮很特别的人才。\n整个部分，老周都是在借乔布斯的某篇电视访谈在谈感想，这个访谈我也看过，没像他点评这么多，但是的确那篇访谈触及到了很多本质的企业管理和创造的问题，乔布斯也是直言不讳，值得经常回顾，前面的博文里自己也写过（本文的斜体都是自己敲写的文字）\n周自评的优秀能力\n有一种善于学习的能力，叫会问问题。特别在不懂的领域会问的话，就可以快速获得别人积累的知识经验。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"线粒体夏娃","url":"/%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%A4%8F%E5%A8%83.html","content":"\n在读《人类基因的历史地图》时接触的概念，书上语焉不详，埋下了一颗疑问的种子\n线粒体夏娃\n背景介绍\n线粒体是一种无核的细胞组织，是被人类单细胞祖先吞噬的古老细菌，最初它只是细胞内的害生虫，后来进化成了细胞的“呼吸器官”，为细胞活动提供能量。\n1963 年时，又发现线粒体中也有 DNA。线粒体 DNA 的遗传方式十分独特。\n在脊椎动物精子的生成过程中，绝大多数的线粒体都被去除了，只保留极少数的线粒体提供精子运动的能量。接着，在受精时，精子中的线粒体 DNA 不会进入受精卵，即使个别闯入了，也会很快分解。下一代的细胞核基因，一半来自精子，一半来自卵子，但线粒体基因则全部来自卵子。也就是说，线粒体基因只属于母系遗传。如果一位母亲没有生下女儿，那么她的线粒体基因就失传了。\n数学要说话\n\n知乎问答那么多，看了一堆，会简单讲清楚事情的人也是少比例，摘录如下\n\n线粒体夏娃是个逻辑假说\n\n每个人只有一个亲妈\n所有活人向上追溯一代，只取女性，那么人数必然减少或者不变，而不可能增加\n\n把这些女性再向上取一代，不停重复以上过程，只要上溯次数足够多，这个数量总能变成1。变成1之后，永远不可能变成0，因为所有人都有妈。\n成为线粒体夏娃的女性，最少要有两个女儿，否则就是她的女儿被授封该称号了。\n计算机模拟\n\n根据概率论的模型估计，其实用不了多少代，就会追溯到这个线粒体夏娃。\n举例某一种群有100位女性，有不同的线粒体基因，且种群稳定（每一代都是100位女性），按这个模型估计，则2N代后，平均也就是200代后，最初的100个不同的线粒体中的只有一个会扩散到全种群中，其他的99个都丢失了。\n通过计算机程序进行模拟500次，达成99个都消失的代际分布如下。集中于100~200代的区间最多，平均下来认为是200代。\n\n偶然的奇妙\n看上去不可思议，只是完全出于偶然。但从上帝视角来看，只要经过的时间足够长，从数学上来说，这是逻辑必然。\n只需要短短一千年，任何一个祖先绝大多数的基因差不多就会被降为零。但线粒体的特性但是现代人类，几乎完整地继承了“线粒体夏娃”的线粒体，并且我们的女性将会继续无限期地传递这位夏娃的线粒体\n此项研究成果作用\n线粒体基因特征背景\n\n线粒体 DNA 一般很难发生改变，平均要过 2 万年线粒体 DNA 才会发生微小的变异\n\n彻底终结了多地起源说\n\n多地起源说：这种学说认为，直立人自从在180万年前走出非洲之后，就在世界的各个地方不断繁衍，分别演化为现代人的不同族群，比如欧洲人就是尼安德特人的后代，中国人就是蓝田人、北京人的后代。但化石证据早就不支持这些观点，科学家们又找智人源流说，分子生物学的最终结论就是把多地起源说彻底扫进历史的垃圾堆里了。\n\n通过追溯成千上万年积累下来的细微突变，我们可以找出哪些人种是密切相关的，最终将线粒体夏娃的存在时间锁定为历史中的某一时间段。目前得出的结论是大约在 14万年前。这几乎排除了多地区起源说存在的可能性，否则线粒体夏娃应该存在于几百万年前。多地区起源说中所有其余地区发现的古化石追溯的人类，都已经灭绝。\n非洲起源\n全人类的线粒体 DNA 基本相同，差异很少，平均差异率仅为 0.32%，确认发展谱系后，现代人类线粒体分为两大类，第一类仅见于一些非洲人中，第二类则分布于包括其他非洲人在内的所有种族中，且第二类的最终源头也在非洲人中。线粒体夏娃是一位非洲女性。\n扩展说明\n她不是唯一\n线粒体夏娃的时代，当然不是只有她一位女性（也许是成千上万），当时种群中其他女性线粒体没有流传至今，但其余她们的核染色体依然传承到了现在人群中。\nY染色体亚当\n同样的逻辑，Y染色体亚当也是存在的。但他俩未必在一个年代，现在的结论初步估计他在六至九万年前。\n露西是线粒体夏娃吗\n\n“露西”是人类学家唐纳德·约翰森于1974年发现的南方古猿化石，化石的出土地点位于埃塞俄比亚的阿瓦什山谷（Awash Valley）。由于发现她时，营地里播放着披头士的《Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds》，化石因此得名“露西（Lucy）”–距今320万年\nSo 结论是 NO！\n\n各自所处时代的“女主角”，年代相差数百万年。\n露西其实已经不是最早的南方古猿化石，还不是最早的人属成员。最早发现的的南方古猿化石为“汤恩小孩”，目前已知最完整的南方古猿化石为“小脚”，最早的人属成员还存争议，南方古猿阿法种（露西所属）和南方古猿湖畔种都是有力的竞争者。\n南方古猿只是智人的远亲，属于灭绝的一种。称为早期人类还行，人类非洲老祖母（夏娃）称号不适合露西。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"组织能力的杨三角","url":"/%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%A8%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92.html","content":"\n看之前\n搞企业的人，想必都对执行力这个词很熟，但是空谈执行力概念是不行的。执行是人的问题，群体可以对等于组织的概念，一个公司的执行力，其实也可以说是组织能力打造的问题。组织能力建设的方向，就是一个公司想要打造的能力方向，也决定了你的公司是什么气质，决定了你老板想要的能否得到。\n不谈组织行为学，接触到组织能力的杨三角概念，这里确实是一个足够简单的抽象。说到底，组织能力，就是一个员工想不想，能不能，组织允不允许（员工治理方式）的三因素构成。那么只要上点规模的企业老板，就要在这几个方面找资源想对策。\n在组织能力打造上，一个企业要长期发展，必须依赖自己的培养体系，以及自己的培养体系培养出来的人才。说的都是简单易懂的大实话，像书中作序所讲，杨教授深谙华人思维，再高明的理论架构，再切题的解决方案，若无简单明白的实施办法，方便好用的执行工具，华人企业是难以付诸实施的。\n看到这个序总结，甚感这会是一本接地气的书。国人的思维习惯，语言体系，民族性格，中意的是“简单深刻”，而非照搬国外的首字母拼凑总结，解析理论的复杂图表。这也是为什么伟人，任正非流派，在企业界获得崇拜和有效的缘由。华人的艺术造诣诚然不足，但是词汇联想和理解能力是远超出欧美的，简单才能传播塑造，深刻执行才有力量。华人有短视贪利不守规矩的一面，在这方面更是要赏罚分明，知人善任，这突然让我想起求学时期时碰到的一个国企老总的讲座汇报，一人之力改善小国企的种种弊病，就靠赏罚分明，赏更要积极，用人也是赏。\n看书\n看了书的目录，主体如下\n\n定义组织能力\n打造企业需要的员工能力[人才抢夺，淘汰，培养机制]\n塑造员工思维模式（洗脑想不想）\n组织架构选择和改善（这个其实并不是允不允许的问题，允不允许是贯穿在2,3,4三项的）\n\n成功=战略*组织能力，战略体现了老板的最高能力（判断&amp;坚持），组织能力是战略执行落地的保证。战略是方向，当然异常重要，战略是修养是艺术，不在书本上。\n另外一点，战略是易于模仿的，但是组织能力却难以在短期内模仿，从这个角度，也可以将组织能力拔高一个层面。甚至你的历史投入资产都是你的组织能力，比如你实验室的多少，更别说团队&amp;文化了。\n组织结构\n对于我们这种没有经历过组织结构设计的人，看到什么组织结构都新奇，有搞产品事业部制的，有搞国家地区制的，也有搞职能分工的，也有搞矩阵式（同时多向汇报的）。但是不同的组织架构都有它各自的设计背景，与历史上该公司面临的机会情况和取得的成绩相关。显然没有万能的，因地制宜，因时制宜，考虑你公司的规模，协调管理的复杂度和外部面临的机遇和不确定性。回到头来还是创始人的对自己企业的认识或者愿不愿意放权。唯一确定的是，改变组织架构是一项复杂的工程，牵扯权力，资源的重分配，必然会遇到各种阻力和矛盾冲突。这需要强有力的顶层干部来干。\n组织边界\n水平边界与垂直边界，不同，一般没有全面大动干戈改动水平边界的。水平边界的改善都是针对某一个特定流程做优化，或为了关键资源或商机做协调共享。升级到一个公司的理念，以客户导向来包装，将水平组织打造成利益共同体的概念。想搞好水平边界的优化，激励策略和员工的流动能力培养我觉得是重中之重。权责和信息比较虚，并不能真实调用人的力量。\n营商变化\n今日的经营环境强调快速，灵活，创新，且要善于整合全球资源。所以老派的强调控制、分工、规模、专业的传统企业，被互联网嘴皮子穷追猛打。趋势显现时并不是排山倒海时，但你却不未雨绸缪。君不见还是有很多老派的企业家在尝试转型，尝试管理转型。\n老的做法有 决策慢，成本高，客户满意度低，因层层流程所限，员工工作被动，缺乏参与感等弊端，这都是新时代的痛点，但若能规避和迎合，痛点就意味着转化出新杀招，也决定了你是否真能基业长青。组织能力说到底是人的问题，很多企业嘴上讲以人为本，但并没有落到实处。\n产业链微笑曲线\n零组件（技术，制造，规模）–组合—分销（品牌，营销能力，运筹能力），是产业链的一个微笑曲线，国人在高附加值或高技术的两端做得并不好，值得努力。\n标杆\n在组织能力建设上，最强的应该还不算科技企业，而是有大量雇工规模的但又有良好管理的企业。这里丰田在若干年里一直是业界推崇的标杆，甚至有化腐朽为神奇的力量，被其收购的企业在付诸其管理后都脱胎换骨。精益生产是丰田的一个企业精髓，但并未体现丰田员工管理的精髓。从员工治理中，丰田充分与员工共享4方面的关键资源（缺一不可）：\n1. 权责共享（管理层级扁平化，自我管理团队和工种的简化给予前线员工更大的权责，甚至每一位员工都有权力停下整个公司的生产线）\n2. 信息共享（看板，每日小组组长会议，每两周全员大会及时共享有用的信息）\n3. 能力共享（招聘中的严格甄选和定岗，入职后的持续培训，确保员工能力的提升）\n4. 激励共享（平等底薪，设立小组和工厂奖金，奖励出勤，给予提案奖金鼓励员工全身心投入生产）\n如上其实体现出，当员工表现不尽如人意时，主管要反思，是员工问题还是主管问题，改变治理方式是否有用，丰田真是一个好标杆。垂直边界改造看丰田的例子，就够了，其实说白了，核心是高级主管把员工当做公司获得竞争优势的源泉。\n结语\n组织能力是你战略落地的内力，练好，责无旁贷。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["团队"]},{"title":"经济与债务","url":"/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1.html","content":"如何看待经济\n这点上可以借鉴桥水(Bridgewater)基金创始人瑞达利欧的视频–经济机器是如何运行的\n\n关键词：信贷，交易，人性。这三个元素相互作用使得经济具有了周期性。\n当现代信用经济没出现之前，经济并未表现出那么明显的周期性。在生产率不变的情况下，供给侧因素劳动力起了巨大的作用。现代经济要复杂的多了，波动也更加剧烈。\n\n\n支出是经济的驱动力\n一个人的支出是另一个人的收入\n生产率长期最关键（生产率能上升，也跟我们的知识随着时间会增多有关系），但短期信贷最关键，生产率短期不会剧烈波动。\n\n用很笨拙（本质）的一条公式来解释：\n$$\n\\frac{支出总额「现金+信贷(未来的现金)」}{产销总量「商品+服务+金融产品」}=价格\n$$\n\n什么是债务？什么是货币？其实就是一种信用，你要生产更多东西你肯定信用就要扩张。\n\n金本位时代结束后，经济增长是靠信贷扩张维系的。经济增长的契约是就是债务和债权，人类显性的奴隶制社会已经结束，但隐形的债务奴隶制却存在，一个人的债务是另一个人的资产，人类通过创造债务购买他人的未来。经济的周期也可以看做是债务的周期。\n周期\n在现今的社会，为拉动消费（经济的驱动力），人们的可支出总额，是包含现金+信贷（未来的现金）两部分。\n在借债时消费多过产出，在还债时消费就低于产出。这是周期的基本原因，长期周期除去债务，还跟供给侧和财富分配双重作用的不可割裂（这点达利欧是没提的）。干预债务是有很多手段的。\n\n\n上图就是其他因素均不变（如供给侧劳动力）经济周期受 生产率、短期债务周期、长期债务周期三要素作用的形象表现。短期债务周期通常5～8年的周期，所以小周期内表现出小波浪的波动。长信贷周期通常在75～100年。\n\n短期债务周期主要由央行控制（一系列的利率政策等干预信贷双方意愿，控制过热与紧缩），每个周期的低谷和高峰后，经济增长和债务都高过前一个周期，因为人性使然，爱借不易还（由奢入俭难）。\n长期内债务增加的速度超过收入，从而形成长期债务周期，而大家形式一片大好里呆习惯了，看不见泡沫，债务人因为负担过重不想再借更多债务，支出（消费）重挫，连带经济剧烈下挫（休克）来释放/消灭问题。\n\n\n解决债务的方案（去杠杆化）\n债务不会消失，是刚性的，只会转移，资产却可能清零。是债就得还，要么就用未来的收入还，要不就是等财产升值后（通膨也是一种升值手段），下面列出四种化债手段。\n\n\n削减支出（紧缩）\n\n\n通过债务违约和重组来减少债务（萧条）\n\n例如破产，违约会使很多各链条深信的财富化为泡影，太恐怖，将带来更多的传导，引致萧条（挤兑）。很多贷款人不希望自己的债务消失，同意债务重组，法拍也是一种。\n债务重组意味着贷款人的还款减少或延长还款期限，降低利率。\n\n\n\n财务再分配，将财富从富人转给穷人\n\n政府必须加税或举债来对冲赤字（稳定市场和民生的支出），向富人融资。\n为了使债务负担下降和经济活动恢复正常，通常需要十年时间，常有失去的十年一说，为啥要十年，得新一批韭菜长起来吧，老韭菜没人愿意吃。\n\n\n\n发行更多货币【膨胀，上面三种都是紧缩】\n\n理论上央行发行货币，只能购买金融资产，推升资产价格，提高人们信用，仅有助于那些拥有金融资产的人。中央政府可以购买商品和服务，向人民送钱，但无法印钞票。为了刺激经济，央行和政府通常合作。央行购买政府债券，其实是把钱借给政府，来运行赤字预算，通过失业救济金和刺激计划来增加购买商品和服务的支出，增加了人民的收入，也增加了政府的债务，但可以降低经济中的总债务负担（或者债务转移）。\n\n\n\n决策中在四种手段种进行平衡，平衡通货膨胀的办法和通货紧缩的办法，适当的平衡就可以带来和谐的去杠杆化。发行货币是否会造成通货膨胀，如果货币抵消信贷的降幅，就不会引发通货膨胀。不要忘了，重要的是支出，每一块钱的支出，不管是信用还是货币，对价格的影响是一样的。\n信用货币小例子\n直觉上世界上所有钱换所有市场上的商品与劳务，假如全世界每个人只有1美元，所有人手上1美元加起来，就是所有商品与劳务的交换计价。哪怕所有人加起来只有1美元，那么1美元就能买下所有。当地球上只有1碗饭吃的时候，这一碗饭等于所有人手里钱的总和。但实际上，货币其实本质无法替代实际财富（房子车子能源食物），它只是信用的凭证，信用的履行与否依然取决于人，假如某个传家宝打死不卖，货币在这个传家宝面前就失效了。\n来个简单的例子，一个星球上只有2人，A有水，B有饭。本来大家相互分享能解决问题，但有水的A使了个心眼，拿出一块货币，对有饭的B说，我拿一块钱买你一半的饭吃，你也可以拿它买我一半水喝，B同意了，然后当B拿这一块钱买水时，A没有遵守信用，不卖躲起来了，那么有饭的B拿着钱渴死了，我们可以说，渴死的B遭遇了经济萧条，手里的一块钱不值钱了，价值蒸发或遇到货币体系信用崩塌。\n深化一下这个模型，有水喝的A印了1亿钞票，然后拿它去买B1/10的饭吃，但一亿张太多了，放手上不方便交易，于是A说，一亿张钞票在我的保险柜里，你可以随时去取，我开个条给你做代表，B同意了，B开心的得到一张纸条和卖出1/10的粮食。反过来拿纸条去买水时，A说我水比较珍贵，你只能买我1/20，不然就不卖，B毕竟要喝水，只好同意，准备交易时，A又说这么卖显得我欺负你，为了公平，你可以不用花这张纸条的全部，可从我保险库里贷4000w，因为是贷款，每天要还我100w，同意的话我就4000w卖给你1/20水，B觉得好像不亏（5000w买1/20就容易反应过来被欺负了，毕竟还有利息），就同意了。\n这样B账户少了4000w，买到1/20水（钱仍在A库里），每天扣100w给A。只要这种账面贷款反复多次，A保险库里一亿钞票没动，账面上还会多出些钱来（利息）。在这种不对等情况下，A可以拿越来越少的水卖给B，B手上的粮食将变得不够他还债，最终变成A施舍粮食和水给B，B背负债过日子。\n货币蒸发\n当反转过来，B问A，买你这些水到底要多少钱，A说100亿，你买不起，于是B自己开个白条给A，说我这张白条，代表你对我的长期投资，价值1千亿，哪天我把欠你的债还清了，还挣钱了，就还1千亿给你。说完就把A的水拿来喝，A怕打不过没敢抢。于是乙也用这种白条游戏违了一次约。A发现名义上自己应得到的1千亿永远不会出现，但账面上他有。此时来了一个外星人C，A对其说我有1千亿，我开个条给你，买你身上的食物和水，你拿这个白条去找B给钱，这些钱能买10倍于我刚才买的食物和水。C评估了，发现AB信用等级不行，且他俩间是坏账，说出了实话：得了吧A，你已经破产了，你的1000亿蒸发了，我不会卖东西给你的，A于是一夜间遭遇大萧条，没有了一滴水还凭空蒸发1000亿。\n现实中的银行就是这样，放贷的钱并不等于存在金库中的存款总额，都是账面数据在增减，A开的白条除去本金，多出的利息甚至在上面故事的星球上都不存在，A保险库里只放着他自己印的一亿张钞票，B开的白条即各种股票债券期权，这种东西本质上代表不了银行里的那点钱了，属于高阶白条，是金融手段衍生出的杠杆。AB游戏本质与我们地球上的金融游戏并无二质。经济萧条时，手上有钱的人货币不值钱了，遭遇信用崩塌（当前产能过剩对于极端风险有平抑效应），说白了货币没有那么多价值实物对应。信用货币中本就受诸多杠杆加持，一旦产生信用违约，原该拥有的（钱）就会消失不见（有个逐步传导的过程），穿透看其反正本来就不存在。\n海通证券对上述模型的应用解读\n债务周期：从举债过度到去杠杆减税\n2010年成为了中国经济的一个很大的数据指标分水岭，人口红利开始下降，城市化推进速度开始变慢。从10年左右开始进入明显的举债发展模式，08-09年开始 4万亿企业举债，12-13年地方融资举债，15-17年居民举债买房。企业，政府，居民轮番加杠杆，使经济保持了中高速发展。\n因借钱不可持续，借钱是要还的，还钱的时候大家就很不开心，经过近10年的举债，我们的历史总债务率在16年达到了顶峰，所有经济主体，总债务水平已经达到GDP的250%，接近次贷危机前的水平，意味着我们达到了长期债务周期的顶峰，不得不考虑换一种方式来发展。\n\n我们过去几年主要政策是两件事：\n\n去杠杆\n补短板\n\n中国提出的供给侧结构性改革，其实就是在实践达里奥提出的完美去杠杆。\n郭树清的一些经典比喻\n\n对于过快的货币供应扩张（信用扩张-加杠杆）\n\n经常爬山的人都知道，越是陡峭的山峰，上去不易，下来更难\n\n财政扩张靠货币注入–美国联邦债务与GDP之比已超过二战时期创造的最高纪录\n\n像一架飞机在空中进入自转旋涡，很难由自己顺利改非出来\n郭的画像\n郭有担当懂实际，反感极速信用扩张。曾有他个人访谈，这位央地两端均有丰富从政经验的高官称，少数人正在违规构建庞大的金融集团，也却有其事，其主导的金融改革也是切中要害，在证监会履职的500多天，猜测也是因为触动太多人利益，导致调任山东省长，但不影响其强人本色，在地方履职仍然干的相当出色。\n\n行长易纲是CEO管业务，专业素养是其特长，主担对外角色.\n郭树清党委书记当董事长，按例管人事和组织培训，郭既有学术素养兼具地方政府工作经验，运筹帷幄果敢高效，是整合银保协同央行的跨界帅才。\n\n原来：影子银行货币放大\n大家找央行是借不到钱的，央行只把钱（基础货币）借给金融机构，实体经济部门接触不到。历史所有金融危机背后，都有商业银行的身影，如次贷危机，日本泡沫，欧债危机等，都是商业银行放贷过度，但商业银行的过度放贷是一种天性，因为银行本身是一个高杠杆的生意，自有本金（自有利润资金）1块钱，但可以放10块钱的贷款（客户的存款），天生就想扩张。\n\n用巨大的资产规模来賺钱的，因为他只賺 息差率-坏账率，不会吃饱了没事增加自有资金\n\n无数次危机后，大家发现必须把商业银行过度放贷行为管起来，因此共同发明了巴塞尔协议，核心要义就是，有多少本金才能放多少贷款。\n\n09年银行贷款增速30%，风险很高，当时还没加入巴塞尔协议，无知无畏。12年正式实施了巴塞尔协议。\n\n实施了巴塞尔协议，但金融机构很聪明，无数的非银行金融机构帮银行想办法。如果银行把贷款放给非银金融机构，非银金融机构再把贷款借给地产企业，在银行的报表中就把一笔房地产贷款成功便成银行对金融机构的贷款，按照中国的金融监管，银行对金融机构的贷款基本不用占银行的本金（应该是金融机构坏账率低过实体企业，占用率低，不像普通放贷一块占一块本金这种换算程度），这样就可以无限制发放贷款。2013年后的影子银行逃避监管，爆炸式的创新发展。\n\n可以看到信贷在M2中的比重17年远高于11和07年，17年影子银行做承担的比重在信贷的占比也远远高过11年。\n去杠杆\n债务周期run下去要靠把收入搞起来，就像真正的资产并不是房子，是打工人持续还债的现金流。当现金流不稳定了，债务就丧失了扩张的动力，旧债的价值也开始变得不可信任。\n债务扩张的过程一定伴随收入增速的下降，债务流向了打工人，财富流向了富人，贫富分化拉大到一定程度，必然带来萧条。债务挤压支出，一个人的支出又是另一个人的收入，就陷入了衰退螺旋。\n\n在金融资本无需扩张和实业资本两大利益集团的争斗下，我们选择了不等崩溃，主动刺破泡沫的去杠杆之路。养膘的过程就像加杠杆，欢快而有效，而去杠杆等同于减肥，缓慢而痛苦，有人要饿肚子，自然要嚎叫\n\n压缩货币再创造–紧缩\n直接大喇叭喊紧缩是痛苦的，也没人愿意听，能干的是间接反向传播–压缩货币再创造\n从17年开始，颁布资产新规，决心去杠杆。资产新规核心手段叫做穿透式监管原则，也就是哪怕银行找了各种通道，通过影子银行来发放贷款，但是银行必须如实披露所有的通道，按照底层资产如实占用相应的资本，这其实是彻底从源头关闭了影子银行，对银行来说，做影子银行不仅要占用资本金，还要支付通道费，完全得不偿失。\n资管新规上来了，按郭树清21年6月的发言，较历史峰值压缩了20万亿。中国的货币供应增速出现了非常明显的下降，过去10年M2平均增速接近15%，近来只有8%左右，相当于下降了接近一半。\n\n货币增速的下降对经济而言有两个好处：一是降低通胀预期；另一个好处是房价泡沫得到抑制。\n地产是信用货币创造机\n过去十几年，地产上涨堪称是一股不可回撤的趋势，啥叫不可回撤，就是所有的参与者都不想回撤。开发商不想回撤，这玩意80%杠杆空手套白狼，不要太简单粗暴，看准行情首富宝座轮流坐坐简直不要太爽；地方政府不想回撤，这东西断了哪来钱道，怎么干事；银行不想回撤，风险谁担？为国接盘嘛；散户不想回撤，稳定基石，舆论浪尖。回撤的关键点在于风险谁担，真的是谁来为国接盘的问题。新门路还在孕化的阶段下，太难受的地方政府怎么办，因城施策呀，太缺钱就吃点药，把双限的大门（限购限贷）打开一点。跟上这股大庄的人，相当于成为了牛市里的高手，可高手发挥的地方，也只能在牛市。横盘时干啥，最好研究观察具体生活层面不可回撤的趋势（大趋势船大不好调头，能给你充足的时间思考，建立信息对称度）。\n\n趋势观察：\n\n\n大组织会不会用它？\n\n\n中产基本面大不大，是否会变大?\n\n\n富人聚没聚堆出没出手，是否会出手?\n\n\n准备钱\n\n\n如果上面几条都没有，就喝茶遛狗钓鱼。这就是观局，何为入局，逃局？富人有没有扎堆出手决定是否入局，中产能否变大决定逃局（毕竟中产换名字就是最大的接盘侠）。\n\n地产并不是货币蓄水池，而是一台不断以信用为原料去生产货币的印钞机，一台将未来的货币抽到现在来用的抽水泵。这些从未来抽到现在的货币，如果不经历一场大规模的债务违约，去消灭他们产出的货币的话，那么这些货币都需要实际产出来偿还的。存量问题才是真正的大问题，增量问题之所以被重视，是因为它是作为存量问题的导火索存在的。相比于存量问题，实际上增量问题不值一提，现在是到了连增量都解决不了的地步。\n过去从现在和未来抽走了太多的货币，或者说产出，目光所及的未来被抽空了这才是危机的本质。一味想着当下的日子好过点，等到了刀尖上跳舞（很多政策在棚改货币化去库存时配套一起出，还比较有效，现在容易成压死骆驼的稻草）还说简单能解决的，免不了太看不起经济规律了。\n货币总量是动态的，生生灭灭时刻发生。信用的消失对应于货币的消失，货币消灭需要一个过程，且信用和货币并不存在一一对应关系。房地产蓄水降通胀是错的，恰恰相反，其作用是杠杆是发动机，撬动信贷和投资，消费者寅吃卯粮的行为，链条中的参与者完成了财富的转移。钱从千万购房者手中，转移到了政府和房开公司手中，再向下传导，造就了经济繁荣和数量庞大的富翁。\n经济繁荣的局面是微通胀的，客观上居民收入也是涨的，只不过涨不过房子和其它一些东西，这涉及小动物的养成分配问题，全球农场都一样，接受就好（只要有银行在放贷或有人不劳动就有收入，一定是有分配漏洞，压榨一部分人或行业供给另一部分行业或人）。\n\n财富分配有不合理的点，效率优先就必须要给特权。提高服务业占比也是为了推高底层人民收入\n\n针对地产业的新常态，这几年困难时期会阴跌,等待他们的是负债率降下去，跨界收缩，针对性结构性开发，进入到更为理性的时代。\n\n阴跌等同于达成高层设定的高位横盘，既不刺破，也不放任，让市场慢慢消化，避免走日本的路。\n\n现在缓解债务违约，只能是既得利益者银行让渡利润，或者打资产包让居民为国接盘（开新税通道费补贴银行？）。地产的巨大获利盘，必须锁死在地产上，让这张支票永远无法兑现（谁能提供这么多剩余价值给他们兑现收益呢），靠通胀消化泡沫，这就是房地产软着陆的既定走势。打砸与跌幅成正比，那就冻住，不跌。大家就都没话说了，市值摆在那，虽然不能流通不叫钱，但看起来好看。散户特点就是啃着馒头过日子比市值，勤俭节约会攒钱，这就是文化传统。（钱在骨子里就不是拿来花的，是拿来攒的）\n减税支撑消费和盈利-财富分配\n18年下调增值税税率1%，上调个税起征点，当年减税降费超万亿\n19年下调3%增值税率，个税5项抵扣，减税降费达到2万亿。\n税收增幅变成负的，正常情况下，税收增长应=GDP名义增速。\n中国居民收入不高，所以边际消费倾向很高，增加的收入基本都会花掉。19年人均国民收入达到1万美元，大家纷纷吐槽拖后腿，其实收入包含居民，政府和企业的总收入（GDP），除人口就高了，而单独居民人均收入只有4000多美元，折算成人均月收入只有2000多元人民币。因为人均收入普遍低，故平均边际消费倾向高达70%。也即是1万亿的减税可以增加7000亿的居民消费，真金白银减了后，19年效果的确不错。\n\n基于19年的数据，消费对经济的拉动效应已经到了60%，相对比投资则只有20%。故过去货币和地产增速走势重要，因投资决定了经济走势，而货币和房地产是最重要的指标。现在消费决定了经济走势，未来即便投资增速继续下滑，只要消费增速保持在8%以上，加权后中国内需经济增速仍在6%，依然是不错的增长速度。\n减税降费也让企业改善了盈利，在经济增速下降，贸易摩擦的背景下，净利润增速数据亮眼。\n总结来说，减税降费一方面支撑了消费增速，托底了经济增长，另一方面也改善了企业盈利。唯一难受的就是以往爽爽的政府部门，过紧缩的日子。\n债务违约-财富分配\n包商银行被接管及各种债务违约，各方达成新一轮妥协（如延长还款期，重新约定利息），也是财富分配或调整债务周期的一种手段，总有方要承担这些财富消失的问题。\n2022上半年信用债新增违约主体集中于民企和房企，上半年93只债券违约，金额共计601亿。举例武汉当代系多家上市子公司股权质押比例均超70%，22年来数次被强制平仓，流动性紧张凸显。融资方面，当代集团通过借款，发债，信托及股权质押等多种方式对外融资，但资金成本高昂，全年财务成本高达20亿。\n债务违约就像一个导火索，如果这个危机难以缓解，那么向它借债的租赁金融公司，银行，信托等，也将受到牵连。\n资产价格下跌时债务问题产生的根源，另一个方面是流动性风险。所有行业中，资产负债对比，杠杆率最高的是金融业，其次就是房地产。2021年银行业上市公司资产负债率是92%（高正常，吸收的存款对银行来说就是负债），非银金融85%，房地产行业上市公司资产负债率接近80%，接近于银行业杠杆率，从资产负债表来看，类似于金融公司，较少的资本，撬动杠杆来开发房地产。挤兑银行会导致银行破产倒闭，房地产公司融资困难，也会导致房地产公司破产。\n因为居民不能像企业那样破产，无限责任。从经济角度看，保交付的成本是比较低的，也可以做到。假设未交房住宅销售价值40万亿，按40%建安成本比（实际可能更低），完成建设需要16万亿，若按10%违约停建比测算，需要1.6万亿资金，实际情况可能更好，完成交付并不需要这么多资金。\n因为居民部门不能破产，房贷资产对于银行来说是非常优质的资产，而企业部门是可以破产的，这才是需要重点解决的问题。理论上，房地产企业负债80%，整个行业来看，房开公司应可以抗住20%的资产价格下跌，但现实情况可能更危险，尤其是中小城市房地产价格。大量房企或从市场破产出清，陆续被收购一些好的项目。破产房开公司的融资使得金融机构受损。问题房企资产处置后，优先偿还工资和保交付，其实才是偿还金融机构借款，再有资金剩余，才是偿还经营负债（这些上游供应商风险是照顾不上了，坑惨了）\n近10年的债务危机问题\n2012年钢企破产，15年过剩产能危机（设备制造），开始出台棚改货币化，18年民企违约潮（基建链和地产），20年底地方国企和房企债务违约。近年来债务出清周期明显拉长，信用修复时长在2015年还可以控制在1年左右，现在都奔2年以上而去。\n\n在这些过往问题中，经常看到降企业杠杆，转到居民部门头上的影子\n\n如果你在行业景气期背负了太多负债，就很痛苦。非景气期之前的效率优先带来的社会问题会集中爆发。中国在新能源和芯片领域还是有突破，于重度老龄化之前来到世界第一还是有希望。\n稳杠杆与转移杠杆\n过去我们债务增速远超经济增速，导致全社会债务率持续上升，就是在加杠杆。但如果未来债务增速降到经济增速下，有可能降低全社会债务率水平，实现去杠杆。普通手段肯定不行，肯定是产业升级，减其它国家的羊毛（全球的劳动生产率如果没有大提升的背景的话–这点还是要靠教育靠知识，理想情况下这都是一个慢斜率的长线事件）。\n常规发展降杠杆一定导致经济衰退，从经济整体而言，钱太多和太少都有问题。政府喊 货币和融资增速要和经济增速相匹配，也其实就是稳杠杆，债务水平稳定。这个大背景下，各个部门的债务是有升有降的，有的部门要去杠杆，有能力的部门加杠杆，这其实就是转移杠杆。\n以美国为例，次贷危机原因是居民举债过度，居民债务/GDP接近100%，而08年以后，政府部门大幅举债减税，政府部门债务率大幅上升，帮居民部门降低了债务率，经济整体债务率不变，使得经济重新恢复了活力，其实也就是债务重组+债务展期，也因为他是世界老大，美元地位才能无甚阻力地干成这个事。\n政府举债的理论支撑\n中国中央+地方的政府债务，预计为GDP 60%，比美欧100%，日本的200%有空间。美是印钱，欧和日本是老本厚余粮多，民众对国家认可度高，福利高且不断提升，民众才愿意掏钱。你学不了美国，欧日你也不好学，小心富人跑路，穷人本身就举债，哪有钱借给你。\n\n这里面还存在一个难题，大家都知道政府的资金运用效率是差过市场主体的，让政府举债一定是个垃圾招。但在政府比较有钱的时候，容易搞出来一些核心复杂技术（军转民），其它领域这都是舍本逐末的垃圾招。\n\n纯说下债务理论：\n从债务关系角度，将国内经济分为政府部门和私人部门。政府部门举债时，政府新增一笔债务，私人部门新增一笔资产。各主体努力工作扩大产能形成财富，财富同样需要地方储存，不放在房子上则可以放在国债上。毕竟国债代表对国家未来财富所有权，增加国债可满足未来大家财富配置需要，可以撑一段时间。这还有赖于你国家货币部门（比较于其它国家）不耍流氓，不要被政府债务协同绑架，搞货币发行通货膨胀来冲销政府债务，让投资人承担蒙难。\n例如地方政府可以发债做实体企业里的债务置换，国企混合所有制改革，也可以用 债转股 的形式来做。国企效率低，有资金的错配，能力的错配，负债率又高，负债成了羁绊国企发展的重要障碍。上一轮国企改革/下岗，银行债务转移，才有企业21世纪初的大发展，银行体系也变得更加健康。当时银行坏账率35%都活过来了。\n有人要问，国企债转股转到私人手上了，怎么办？我的回答就是，我们还是要想开一些，国企的资产是全民的，它转移到了私人投资者手上，其实还是整个社会的，它还是在中国。沈阳机床厂本来可以跟西门子竞争，结果因为财务问题打不过西门子多可惜。我们老说要搞自主研发，现在好不容易有这么一个企业，为什么不帮助它轻装上阵做大做强呢，它仍然是中国的企业。（理论上国有全民资产存在超额分配，实际效用上确实对长远产业发展有好处，更长期可以再从私人手中强制赎买回来或者再分配的干预）\n\n政府加杠杆，改善民生。老一代一半时间牺牲掉了，到了孙子一辈，含着金汤匙出生。储蓄那么多留给后代，这里就有代际公平的问题。让那时的年轻一代多抗点国家负担也理所应当。\n\n当基建投资边际收益率越来越低时，国债的低收益率也好过地方政府原来的高息举债。如果真搞政府举债，也必然后面意味着央行存在降息的空间，避免跟国债抢市场。\n问题很多，你怎么去解决呢，有人说这不行，那也不行，我们必须一揽子解决。中国的改革开放告诉我们不存在一揽子的解决方案。前段时间老谈顶层设计，你发现顶层设计根本行不通，中国的事情就是小步快跑，你要先找到一个突破口，然后再扩大。\n重点说说货币再创造\n在无锚的纸币化时代，通胀是最好的去杠杆手段，何必搞三种紧缩手段呢？加大货币供应让货币贬值进而降低债务价值最符合ZF的利益，在债务问题上，制造通胀比增加税收对人们造成的痛感要隐秘得多。\n是否低利率时代的诉求都是CPI稳定，否则就是社会不稳定的问题先跳出来。平台和要素经济扩张的这么些年，分配比例不平衡和债务周期问题已经开始在反制约市场经济下的经济增速了。央行的第一目标是稳定币值，因为可靠的货币信用确保他们可以长期靠”印钱“就可以分配财富。\n\n正所谓良药苦口但能治病，因为债务周期内生伴随着经济结构病症的，必须要进行锻炼来进行削减不必要的肥胖部分，就像一味的加强营养并不能使身体变棒一样。积弊还得磨练医，所以中国也提供给侧改革。\n现在处在上一轮IT技术革命的尾声阶段，消费侧已经积累了几十年的问题，各国无不例外期待的是一个供给侧的破局点\n\n现代经济危机的完整演化逻辑是:\n流动性危机→金融危机→债务危机→货币危机→威胁执政安全\n印钞，货币信用危机；不印钞，债务危机进而引发金融危机。有没有一种印钞方式，既能缓解债务压力精准投放货币于实体经济，又能避免损害货币信用呢？— 这不是以工代赈嘛 ，就是降杠杆周期有些长，也只有缓慢降杠杆是有效的。\n\n有一种提法是开启全国的水循环体系的建设，大型基建转向环境治理方面。水污染治理和水资源利用，可以渗入三四线城市，接替房地产的一定缺口。\n\n相对于财政发债印钞，央行投资BSA（基础战略性资产）发钞的可靠性更高，也最符合大众的利益。\n贬值说\n有一种说法是货币多了有没有问题呢？如果你发的货币是平均的分到每个人头上就一点问题都没有，两倍，十倍都没有问题，大家同比例的增加。这种观点是错误的，假如货币极速贬值1倍，是可以缓解债务，但一个人的债务是另一个人的债权，债权人的资产被稀释，将引发银行挤兑换物资，流动性危机爆发。且对外看，你的货币贬值，换来的物品并不会增加（除非你是美金这样的全球货币）。故只能拉长周期来处理降杠杆的事情。\n美联储搞量化宽松，其实也是为了促经济投资和就业，操作也不是直接发钱。扭转预期与保长线投资，使得不出现流动性危机，好在其世界货币的地位，去国外掠夺资产，资本界挣了钱，又反映到股市上，或分流一些到实体中，让负债者慢慢地去杠杆（用时间换空间）\n代金券说\n也有人说直接发居民代金券，但代金券将引发的是短期债务周期问题，稍微拉长点看，依然没用，想从你荷包里掏出更多的钱出来，与民众债务压制无力消费是违背的。搞任何的财政补贴，都是在给食利者张目，资金最终肯定会流入到食利阶层去。\n货币信用\n把货币信用看得这么重？你不是还要争一争世界货币的地位吗，那每一份信用都要珍视。见下面的货币霸权相关章节。\n直接印钱是玩笑话\n很多人认为印钞放水就是央行拧开水龙头，马上就水漫金山了。在实际操作中，不是这么回事，只有借出来的钱才是真的钱。你不去借，就没有水流出来。房地产作为国民经济支柱的真正作用之一就是通过居民的购房贷款负债，向市场投放货币，所以才有房地产是印钞机的说法。前几轮降首付降利息，房市就就救起来了，这回的表现很差，当时居民负债还很低，此刻再增加就会成为次级贷（收入下行，失业上行）。且我国有很多民间借贷，根本统计不到，所以实际负债比官方数字更重是情理之中（从居民端负债来看，已经借不动更多债了）。在周期向下趋势中，企业也不想借钱，轮到银行也为难，它敢放款的越来越保守，不想要钱，这样水就放不出来。\n22.8月中旬之所以调低MLF利率，是因为市场利率和基准利率出现了gap，市场利率早就跌到地板上了。原因是银行不缺钱，钱压根就放不出去。这就叫流动性陷阱。\n有人说，直升机撒钱行不行，牺牲货币信用托底房市，控制货币有序贬值。只要人民币贬值一倍，房价就没有泡沫了，软着陆了，这就是以通胀消化泡沫，以时间换空间。你见过哪个正经的经济学家敢这样讲，因为根本就没有可行性，钱不能直接印，这是常识。如果可以直接印钱，就相当于我随手写一个借条，对你说你欠我100w，你认吗，你不认这张借条就等同于废纸。民国金圆券就是不远的例子，只要当局稍动下念头，社会就会崩溃，所以根本不存在控制货币有序贬值，金融市场永远被两种情绪控制，一种是贪婪，另一种是恐惧。一旦贬值趋势确定，谁还愿意持有确定贬值的货币？定会一窝蜂抛售。货币信用是一种共识，它非常脆弱，必须要有制度约束，一旦约束没有了，它绝不会有序贬值，而是瞬间崩塌。\nMMT理论有话说\n有人会跳出来说MMT（现代货币理论）不是说可以无限印钞吗？讨论MMT虽是以印钞为切入口，但实际讨论的是宏观债务到底能加到什么程度。MMT讲的是通过财政扩张创造货币，也就是通过政府借债发钱。政府的还债承诺和借债规模，就是货币的信用基础。以美元发行为例，美债为美元背书，美元给美债兜底，有点像左脚踩右脚的轻功踢云纵，可以上天。理论上，美债可以无限展期和扩张，但实际上其利息规模一般要控制在GDP增量之下，这就是MMT理论的约束机制。若债务增长太快，会出现两种情况，一是偿债信用遭到质疑，你多干的部分连利息都还不上，债务只会越积越多，怎么可以让人相信你可以还债。二是劳动收入整体下降，失业上升。多干的部分拿去还利息就不够，那么存量的弱势群体就要被牺牲一下，用以节流，带来的结果一般就是劳动收入下降。\n逆周期调节与汇率\n所谓宏观调控，就是在上述平衡上走钢丝，并不是水多了加面，面多了加水那么简单。若GDP增速下行，逆周期调节要增加货币，会怎么样，会降息。但降息也受规则限制，就是发展中/发达国家间的利息差（买美债无风险收益的钱在美联储加息时肯定会跑一批）。发展中国家需要大量投资，是资本输入国。资本流出增长就会扑街，不增长资本进一步流出，这样就跌入了中等收入陷阱。南美的悲剧不能总怪华尔街玩阴谋，人家是阳谋，自己是青蛙在锅里洗澡，能怪得了谁。\n搞MMT是低增长的伴生品（配套低利息），日本就是玩这套，得益于日元信用良好，日元低息资金流入东亚其它国家，分享了发展中国家的增长，缓和分配矛盾，提高了社会对低增长的容忍度。\n22年的现状，既放不出水，央妈也不想放水，一涨解千愁的想法可以休矣。输入型通胀和猪周期来临，通胀可能也要抬头，连降息的空间也快到头了，随着资本外流，货币吃紧可能是常态，普通人做好储备准备过冬。\n阶段总结\n对一切经济危机进行溯源都可归结为贫富分化，这是所有体制内专家都不会说出的事实，他们只会归咎于贸易战和疫情等场外因素，倒不是他们没有读过马克思，而是他们只说符合其利益的话。\n\n高层有志于着手改变这一状况，比如一方面央行的数据显示城镇户均资产317万（含住房且为大头近7成，基于3万户城镇居民调查得来），而李总则公开表示有6亿人月收入不足1000，官方数据看似打架也不打架。收入是现金流是实的，资产没变现可以是虚的。\n户均资产同样本的（减去负债）均净资产是289万（看样子都挺有钱，算上这些未变现的房产，城镇户均负债率9.1%（虚），但债务收入(实）比为1.02，比美帝的0.93要高），分化程度高于资产分化程度（但又比美帝好些【美帝的贫富更剧烈】，净资产1%占据的净资产，美帝是38.6%，我们是17.1%，毕竟我国住房自有率远好过美帝）。但也不容乐观，最低20%的资产占总样本的2.6%，最高20%占63%，最高10%占47.5%。以资产论，东部最富（户均461w），东北最穷（165），西部（208），中部（263）都比东北强。\n央行报告的数据来自于30各省市，对3万余个家庭进行的调查，不是大数据的精确结果\n\n有效需求不足的根本原因是贫富分化，贫富分化的根本原因是财富分配制度出了问题。休扯什么努力or不努力，信这个的，要么是主张996是福报的资本家，要么就是还没走出象牙塔的小白。讲破大天，按劳分配（和按需分配相结合）最正经，道理虽这么讲，但现实是”按权力分配”。\n简单解读通胀与通缩\n经济只会出现通胀和通缩两种对立状态，最理想的就是我们说的温和通胀。信用货币本身是没有价值的，被创造出来就是为了流通和交易，上层的目标是增加社会的总产出，这样20%的人拥有比例会更多。而不是为了增加社会的总钞票或让钞票更值钱。\n\n\n什么是经济？经济就是做蛋糕\n\n\n什么是政治？政治就是分蛋糕\n\n\n什么是制度？制度就是规定谁先拿谁后拿\n\n什么是好制度？就是分蛋糕的人最后拿蛋糕\n什么是坏制度？就是分蛋糕的人先拿蛋糕，不让人知道他们拿了多少\n\n\n\n什么是宣传？宣传就是让做蛋糕的，感激分蛋糕的能让他吃到蛋糕\n\n\n通胀和通缩会影响人的判断，花钱还是存钱。就通胀而言，在合理预期下，大家会想着赶紧把钱花出去或投资出去，所以很多人不惜押上未来30年的收入去购买房子。这样的好处是大量的人愿意拿出钱或贷款消费，高速增长的消费会带动投资和出口，三驾马车跑起来了，经济自然就上去了。但同时也埋下了隐患，就是拉高了居民负债率。负债率这个东西，在居民收入增长的时候，是个听话的小媳妇，但当居民收入不确定的时候，她就是个闹离婚的母老虎。大量的货币流通也符合上层部分人的利益，市场上钱越多，他们财富增长的就越快，参与其中的普通人也跟着喝点汤。\n短暂通缩可以说是过度通胀的结果，通胀为因。在过去过度通胀会引起生产的相对过剩，随之发生供大于求，接着破产引起信用收缩，而用信用表现的信用货币也就出现紧缩。简单说通缩的发展不符合少部分人的利益需求，故任何国家都不允许通缩长期存在，走向温和通胀是必然的方向（从模型上因为资方并不会全消费，经济发展必然需要注入更多的货币）。\n从债题上看站队\n财政学的核心是负债转移，财政永远是最大的政治。两个有名的电视剧《走向共和》，《大明王朝1566》中开篇都是在算账\n\n短期的政府部门加杠杆，目的也是最终未来撬动更多的企业部门，居民部门杠杆（或者让子孙来还）。财政本身并不产生财富，财富还得是诱使劳动部门创造，他们最终抽取上来来填窟窿。\n下方跳出日本陷阱的章节里也提了杠杆置换。\n\n货币学的核心是信用稀释。储户多增发流动性让存款贬值，股民多时就牺牲流动性让股票跌。\n要去人数少的一方。保值的资产会相对本币上涨，举个不恰当的例子，大多数人炒股的时候就会通缩，大多数人存款的时候就会通胀，让经济和市场随机运转，不调控并不符合赌场的利益。\n用《一出好戏》来看货币\n还记得《一出好戏》里的货币应用场景吗？鸡贼的张总主张用扑克牌作为货币行驶交换媒介的职能，并告诉大家整座岛上只有一副扑克牌，结果小兴发现自己手上竟然有4张红桃二，说明扑克牌并不止一副，甚至都不止4副。\n值得思考的问题是：\n（1）扑克牌货币的锚是什么？\n（2）为什么张总增发了扑克牌，却没有引起通胀？\n第一个问题并不难回答，扑克牌货币没有锚，能行驶“交易媒介”的职能是基于全体认同的公共契约——这才是货币的本质。所以货币并不需要锚。\n\n自从布雷顿森体系终结，全世界国家的货币完全是信用货币了\n央行的第一目标是稳定币值，因为可靠的货币信用确保他们可以长期靠”印钱“就可以分配财富。\n\n全部的新纸牌都在张总手上，拥有货币发行权的张总随便掏两张纸牌出来就可以将别人辛勤捕获的鱼换到手却并不需要付出对等的劳动。\n既然如此，鸡贼的张总为什么没有掏出更多纸牌将市场上的所有物资据为己有呢？一旦人们发现他所发行的货币（纸牌）价值下跌，就没有人愿意持有纸牌而最终令他无利可图。\n如果你的家族可以通过印刷纸币就能占有社会财富的话，你会舍得让你发行的纸币变成废纸吗？张总在发行货币的过程中严格控制了货币量的增长，保持了物价的稳定，从而令人们感受不到他在超发货币，若不是小兴看到4张相同的牌型，他的秘密就不会被发现。\n非紧缩货币的降杠杆方法\n货币扩张推动金融资产涨价实现少数人超额分配的同时，也带来了债务危机。过分通过商业银行进行信贷扩张的路径不仅不能将货币注入实体经济，反而会进一步吹大泡沫筑高债务风险，加剧贫富分化。\n怎么降杠杆呢？多数人认为，我们必须降低M2的数量和增长速度。但是，降M2存量几乎不可能，很困难【意味着债务违约消灭货币】。降低速度是可能的，但是在经济下行的时候，全面的降低货币发行速度就是自杀。1929年的大箫条给我们的启示就是，胡佛总统控制货币的发行，结果让大萧条越来越深入【先拖住流动性陷阱，等不来新技术就等来新动乱】，这是美国学术界一致的看法。在我们现在这种情况下一定要保持一定速度的货币增长量，否则我们的经济下行压力就会更大。\n真正的降杠杆就是消除坏账，防止坏账增长。M2并不可怕（央行的储备货币是实锚），可怕的是坏账增加。原来我们有一种美丽的烦恼，就是储蓄太多，储蓄多却走上日本的道路。日本是我们的前车之鉴，他大量的钱先变成了房地产和股市泡沫，接下来承受的果子就是产业空心化。\n跳出日本陷阱的做法\n我们吸取他的教训就是，应该把电子符号转化为收入流，扩大直接融资，股市、债市、PE、VC，让钱流入实体领域，促进科技创新，产业升级。但是目前经济下行压力这么大的情况下政府要有所作为，要发行更多的政府债券，为老百姓提供稳定的收益。\n大家可能会问，政府债券谁还呢？子孙后代呗。我们的下一代，这一代已经生活得很好了，那他们的再下一代是含着金汤匙出生的，凭什么他就可以什么也不干享受美好的生活，让我们这代人做出牺牲呢？这是一个很好的代际公平问题。\n政府发债做什么？现在主要是置换地方债，这是对的。把原来的商业债务转化成政府债务。但这还不够。国企债转股混合制改革，也可以搞。大的方向是杠杆置换，现在也就只有国家可以继续加杠杆，但居民降杠杆也需要时间。\n应鼓励企业向中西部地区移动，中国仍有1/3的人口收入在每天2美元或以下，企业内移比走出去好，这也是走德国路线一种，产能转移与培养内需，也是产业竞争力再造的选择，利于共同富裕。资本回报下降是一个自然过程，原来01到12年这段时间资本回报率太高，12%，20%，其实是不正常的。\n降杠杆的反跳\n疫情之后，房地产交易又活跃了起来，这里可能的原因是：\n（1）2019年上半年同样经历过一段楼市、股市小阳春，彼时对美贸易战才正进入谈判期，不是一轮新增长的到来，恰是非金融部门经济效率恶化的一种转换。实业的老板不愿意那么累了，转换资金换个赛道玩玩。\n（2）疫情对经济影响一定是负面的，失业情况严峻，不然也不会搞什么“摆摊经济”。此时资产价格上升与基本面恶化的情况是不符的。你当然可以说资本市场的起伏是资金流动主导的与基本面无关，但与基本面相背离的上涨就是炒作，就看你玩不玩得起了。\n地方债务回望\n过去20年干完了发达国家100年的建设量，损耗最大的首先是地方政府错误决策，建设大量的低效低质量新城，各种消耗财政资金的错误项目，垃圾项目，虚假项目也是类似的。被贪腐或资金外逃，都是造成土地财政循环巨大损耗的地方。至于一般性腐败，裙带关系，普通行业利益输送，细分市场垄断在这些大巫面前可能都排不上号。\n这些年暴饮暴食，还欠下了巨额负债，这不是财政缺口那么简单，由奢入俭的缺口问题比债务暴雷更容易解决点，但如果财政缺口那么好填补，就不会有那么多王朝灭亡与财政崩溃，尤其是整体腐败造成的财政崩溃。要是财政缺口那么好补，90年代也不会有几千万人下岗，国企破产改制。\n解决财政缺口，不是拿新的耗材来填补缺口，而是忍痛壮士断腕，断臂求生以求缩小缺口。政府减员增效，至于科技突破，产业升级，一带一路海军发展本来是最大的发展方向，但其原始积累资金原本要靠财政，包括房地产收益来提供。这些原始收益大量被这个广袤的国家低水平的官员损耗掉，着实可惜，一方面这个国家太大，在放与管之间，也是分几级区位的，在大片的无所谓中国地带，更多是让基层自由发挥，撬动老百姓的积极性和资金，最终不都还是群众的钱么。\n22、23之交\n22年第4季度，住户贷款余额75万亿，同比增速5.39%，住户经营贷款同比增加16.5%。银行开始限制提前还贷。\n23年M2飙升，居民存款飙升已经超过贷款飙升。\n\n22年全年存款新增大概18万亿\n1月份新增6.2万亿，一个月就完成22年1/3的KPI，搏命存钱\n一月份贷款4.9万亿\n\n\n陷入到与海外不同的经济阶段，海外通胀，种花家通缩。可以说各经济体都害怕通缩，看什么时候爬出大坑，回头我再来更新此篇。\n\n感叹\n长期的灌水累积了大量的债务，债务维持依赖于低息环境，而债务的偿还还依赖于通胀造成的债券贬值（等同于货币购买力下降）。现在的这套货币扩张体系，带来的后果是：泡沫化，空心化，贫富分化。\n由于金融资产的另一端对应着债务，所以对一个独立经济体来说，金融财富的集合是0\n一国居民的生活水平取决于生产商品和服务的能力，工业制造能力才是大国综合国力最重要体现。荷兰和英帝国均是因为坐靠金融便可收割全世界，何苦自己跑船和生产，才将霸主地位拱手让出，结果无一例外让代工小弟掌握核心技术，成为生产中心，取代了旧霸主。\n中国抛头露面的少有真正的经济学家，这话不假，因为很多经济学家只是将资本掠夺进行合理化的“文化打手”而已。\n你讲公平，他谈效率，好像效率与公平天然相悖一样，事实上，在危机中公平就是效率，因为没有公平就没有稳定，又哪来的效率呢？\n里根的改革\n70年代在越南战争，德日的竞争压力下，美国的商品没那么好销路了，美元因为一直印及为了刺激出口，在动态汇率机制下，一直在贬值趋势中，当然在强大的工会和保障机制下，美国的人工成本是比较高的，与日德来说确实欠缺竞争力，这种趋势下在同一赛道的自然竞争下是没有胜出的可能。\n在石油禁运危机的加持下，短短几个月时间，美国的企业和生活成本飙升，本国企业产能没有出路，失业率大涨。按照凯恩斯主义理论，经济衰退，失业上升时，政府应该加大开支拯救经济；而当经济过热物价飞涨时，政府又应该紧缩财政，给经济降温。可衰退和通胀同时出现时呢，凯恩斯矛盾了，美国政府左右为难，对经济难题束手无策，当时投资者对经济前景更加悲观，股市崩盘40%，股神巴菲特的大部分财富也灰飞烟灭。\n滞涨\n适度通胀是对经济发展有利的选择。为什么这么说，生产的终极目标是消费，但是在上面的过剩问题解释中，已经提及了。\n滞胀是啥：经济停滞型通胀，不是供需导致，主要是由原材料或能源产品涨价所引发的。\n\n经济停滞，失业及通货膨胀 同时持续增长的现象。旋风的核心是失业（产能过剩的结果），带动消费不振，进而生产更没有动力；导火索通常是外部输入的通胀，如大宗商品原材料涨价，本质是财富分配不均，生产效率无法跃升的一种累积体现。\n可以这样简化理解，大宗商品价格上涨，成本上升及理论减少，引致商品价格上升，低收入人群更无力消费，引起经济随之放缓。\n另一方面配套经济政策延误问题出清，在这种情况下为了刺激，常规想到的是续命货币宽松，相信有产阶层的能力或觉悟，但并不能解决消费病症，更可能助长金融投机，该救助的人或模块根本得不到救治，相当于在膏肓的虚症下仍然下猛药，只能让身体进一步的虚。\n消费侧的问题只能调转方向，从供给侧来治，是一个问题出清的阶段，必然是痛苦的。\n\n政府当时通过增加货币发行来刺激消费，结果适得其反，因为政府增加的支出最终还是通过提高税收来保持财政平衡（当时里根的改革还没上，对资本层的征税求阶层平衡还是通行做法），结果让企业和个人来买单。\n公平 ===&gt;  效率\n社会对政府批判加剧，大家开始相信政府体制出了问题。被压抑已久的资本家阶层看到操纵社会舆论反攻倒算的机会。美国大法官鲍威尔批评企业家向劳工阶层谄媚，商会开始组织起来向政府和公共媒体进行游说，给美国人洗脑，十年时间内，游说机构在华盛顿如雨后春笋般成立，平均每位国会议员都有130名说客为其服务，是代表劳工利益说客的几十倍。普通民众的政治声音被淹没在了金钱的汪洋大海里。商界的声音主要有2个\n\n批评罗斯福以来美国政府采取的亲工会政策，把太多利益分配给了工人，挫伤了企业家的生产积极性，成为美国经济衰退的根源\n批评政府实施高福利政策，圈养了一批好吃懒做的社会蛀虫，提高了人力成本不利于经济复苏\n\n商界给政府开出的药方是：政府减税+放松管制+削减福利，把市场还给资本家，美国经济自然就会好起来。找了芝加哥大学一批信奉自由竞争的经济学家作为代言人，也就是芝加哥学派。一系列酝酿下，80年代，亲商业反劳工的里根总统上台了。\n里根上台\n里根的政策总结起来是：不进行财富再分配，而是反过来使有钱人更富有，大企业随后大量花费及投资，使社会各阶层皆获益。\n上任仅3个月，就铁腕镇压了一场罢工运动，开除了1.2w名参与罢工的空中交管员，给了工会下马威。开始解除终身合同，解散工会，开启将工厂搬到国外的做法。在任内，美国企业带头掀起了全球化浪潮，将生产基地转移到东亚墨西哥等低成本地区，昂贵的人力成本得以削减，企业利润由此突飞猛进。代价就是美国本土制造业岗位的快速流失，贫富差距随之加大，为后来的另一次危机埋下了伏笔。\n减税措施使企业负担转嫁到政府身上，政府赤字开始空前加大，成为世界最大的债务国。滞的问题最终解决还是通过产业结构的调整和第三次科技革命转民用，结合自己庞大的国内市场和美元霸权彻底甩开日德。\n也有批评家认为，里根投入大量预算押注军事产业，并认为接踵而来的经济增长并非减税造成的，而是政府大幅支出的结果。\n保罗·沃尔克有那么神？\n曾经吹他是最伟大的美联储主席，我个人来看，并没有，通过疯狂的加息，他的措施，对于胀是有用的，但是对于滞，没有功效。\n面对通货膨胀，芝加哥学派弗里德曼描述当时里根了解到”若要成功遏止通货膨胀，金融的管制和短暂的经济衰退是不可避免的“，故里根仍然赞成沃尔克执行紧缩货币的策略。\n拉美的滞胀\n宽松的外部资金供给\n在70年代原油涨价背景下，石油输出国美元收入充足，美联储维持低利率，共同提供了宽松的外部借债环境。\n一方面，七十年代两次石油危机导致原油价格大涨，石油输出国获得了巨额美元收入，增值保值需求强烈，国际市场美元供给充足。\n另一方面，七十年代美联储货币政策整体宽松（大宗商品涨价，经济难过，不敢加息），低利率环境降低了拉美国家的借贷成本。伴随全球金融一体化进程，欧美商业银行加大对拉美国家的信贷投放。\n在这种外部宽松刺激下，拉美国家经济激进扩张，举债盲目。\n\n相继实施进口替代战略，急于实现现代化，实行“高目标，高投资，高速度”的方针。庞大的经济发展战略需大量资金投入，但国内储蓄率和投资率普遍低，本国资金匮乏，只能依靠国际资本，大举外债。\n\n资金效益低下，内部政经局势差\n但拉美国家外债使用效率低下，缺乏良好的规划管理，大量外债被用于投资项目周期长，效率低，流动性和变现能力差的大型公共事业，且部分被用于非生产性支出如弥补国营企业亏损，购置军火等，短期内没有收益，当外部资金回流撤退，那就将压力山大了。\n另外，通货膨胀，经济衰退叠加政局不稳定，刺激拉美国家部分企业和私人的资金外流，资金愈发短缺，又进一步强化了拉美国家借外债的动机。\n外部局势变化\n80年代初，美联储为应对滞胀困境，吸引国家资本回流，自1980年8月起连续加息，一年内提到22%，拉美国家借的多为浮动利率，成本骤升，点燃债务危机的导火索。石油危机冲击带来的周期性衰退，欧美各国加强贸易保护主义，采取提高关税，设置进口限额等各种高非关税壁垒等手段，向发展中国家转嫁危机，造成拉美国家巨大的贸易逆差，沉重打击以出口贸易为主要外汇收入来源的拉美国家。\n当美元升值，大宗商品价格下跌，拉美国家出口减少，利息负担上升，偿债能力大幅下滑，国际资金加速流出，加剧拉美地区资金短缺局面，货币危机爆发，拉美国家货币大幅贬值。\n老美为啥不崩溃\n在过去几十年，中美没竞争关系，有一段时间肉麻的说G2。美国把低端产业转移中国，他们赚取超额利润，搞高端产业和技术研发，顺便吸收中国这边的顶级人才，中国这边没有高端产业，开不出来高工资，优秀人才自然会用脚投票离开中国，一定程度上讲，有那么一些年确实是这个路线。\n2010年之前，中国顶级名校的学生怎么说来着，不在国外就在出国的路上，尽管现在人才依旧在持续外流，但势头已经好转了，最主要的原因，还是我国内部市场已经形成，可以给头部人才定高价，不再像之前那样卖茶叶蛋的比造原子弹的收入高。那种情况下，除了少数有家国情怀的人，绝大部分为了生活还是离开了。现在顶级人才的收入差距不断拉近，将来才能继续回国。\n我国一直有个跟顶级人才讲奉献不讲钱的毛病，华为为什么研发像点样，主要是愿意给钱，头部科研人员的收入不低于欧美同行，但**中国现在距离美国那种吸引全世界富人举家迁入的能力还差很多，这种情况一天不出现，中国货币就没法跟美国相比较**。疫情这种样子，君不见潘跑跑这类人还在持续在向美国跑，这本身就是在给美国输血。美国经济一直有个很重要的增量，就是全世界富人的持续涌入。\n美丽国的二元对立统一\n只要你愿意，你可以拍出两个美国，首先是巨差的市区，穷人和无家可归者呆在那里，乱七八糟垃圾满天飞，连麦当劳窗户上，都装了防弹玻璃和铁丝网，一副末日景象。但是如果出了城，路过一个个富人区，别墅样式的房子一直延展到天边，绿油油的树，干净的马路，给人感觉这才到了一个发达国家。\n从老百姓层面看，太多人傻白甜到弱智的地步，连两位数加法都弄不明白，很多人说，有计算器就可以了。不过现实里，如果两位数加减法都弄不明白，思考更复杂的问题就会很痛苦，人就倾向于做点头脑简单的事情。时间长了，脑子就越来越简单。作为软件从业者，我们很清楚，类似像数据库，数学软件，芯片设计，CAD绘图等这些复杂又精细的软件，基本都被美国控制着。而且我国最顶尖的公司暂时也搞不出来。搞出来也没有什么市场空间，这些软件都融入到我们生活了，现在几乎每个用手机的人都间接使用这些软件，也就是说**美国这个国家的上限非常高，下限非常低**。\n大家平时在看他们底层loser的搞笑秀的时候，也要想想他们的头部公司在忙啥，认清差距才是进步的关键，以前因为我们主要是接受西方的技术转移，需要我们研发的并不多，这几年开始触碰到了技术屏障，也就是西方有些东西不愿意转移了。我们才发现这条路有多难，不过越是难才越要做，难的事才有价值，如果印度越南都能做的事那根本没什么意义只是增加点就业。现在的困难时期正好是深耕时期，低端产品卖不动，才更需要考虑研发更高水平的产品，科研人员才有价值和地位，才能产生正反馈和持续的发展动力。\n美国这个国家，类似于自然界的模式，赢家通吃，极度的奖励强者，马斯克的身价已经超过了Bill Gates和Buffett的总和，他的个人财富能排到全世界国家财富的前50，真正意义上的富可敌国，如果你足够牛逼，足够有创造性，他们可以动员天量的资源供你使用，你能做的事情更大，成就也就更多。用一个经济学家的话说，美国两百多年其中有100多年引领世界，靠的不是全部美国人，而是极度依赖一小撮极具创造性和突破性的美国人，这些人创立了美国的国债制度，研发出了原子弹和计算机，开创了一个又一个的新领域，其他人跟在这些人后面喝汤。\n制度优势\n美国人真正的优势在哪，它的制度对那一小撮头部的人极度友好，他们犯了错，给容错机会，有他们的破产制度，他们有成就就给难以想象的奖励。这种情况下，全世界顶级人才自然会向他们聚集，头部这些人一直以来都是美国的关键核心竞争力。\n这次疫情中，他们几乎没受影响，马斯克的火箭一直发个不停，电动车迭代比火箭快得多，苹果的产品发布也基本没落下。美国就算伤亡再大一些有些影响，但是没有伤筋动骨，且这次疫情主要死的是老年人，那就更没感觉了，剩下的人，傻白甜，却有种自己管自己的觉悟。平时不太相信政府，碰到麻烦，也不指望政府。综合起来，他们的老百姓对政府要求很低，又有一个强劲的火车头（创造力人群）拖着，糗事不断但好像混得又很滋润。\n货币霸权\n瓷器国内对美元崩溃这事，还是太急，觉得就Conv-19这几年滥发货币，应在就在眼前了，然后发现这都过去这么久了，依旧没崩，所以自己呢，有点崩。美元那么强，是过去200多年的一个延续，就像地主老财家的儿子只要是不创业，很难真的坐吃山空一样，美国这几年的各种败坏，本身也是在消耗以前的信用。\n美国过去30年的平均年通胀率只有1.75%。在国际流通领域，美元占到40%，在各国外汇储备中占到90%。美元之所以是世界货币并成为各国央行的压舱石，是因为美元长期稳定所营造出来的广泛信用。即使是对灯塔国恨得牙痒痒的ISIS，对美元却爱得深沉，即便上面印着“我们都信仰上帝”。\n国际化的信用积累需要币值稳定\n为什么rmb财政货币化就要被各路经济学家抵触？\n\n\nrmb没有形成稳定的“信用预期”，现在的情况是就连老大妈都知道“存钱要不得，买房抗通胀”。过去长期放水形成了“钱越来越不值钱”的惯性思维。此外，1994年的价格闯关时期有一次严重的货币贬值（幅度25%)，所以在国际上rmb并不具备信用优势。\n\n\n“财政货币化”所兜底的地方债的质量是存疑的（不透明）。\n\n\n货币的国际信用需要靠科学的制度系统和法治体系来予以保障，自由兑换和浮动汇率是起码条件，也是目前所缺少的。\n\n\n美联储可以“无下限”操作的原因是美元在过去几十年的市场参与中建立起了强大的信用基础，其基础货币发行制度和流通便利程度也是其他币种无可比拟的。而rmb在这方面还有很长一段路要走，不可贸然凭空印钞而前功尽弃。rmb国际化势在必行，那么实现金融开放、浮动汇率、取消资本管制便是理所当然，而这一切都必须用稳定可靠的币值进行保障。\n世界货币替换的过程\n垃圾不垃圾是比出来的，你拿着印度货币，还是俄罗斯货币，更不靠谱。美元霸权的易主得另一种货币本身得信用好，好的状态得持续很多年，才能在大家心里扎下根。美国在一战时经济已经比英国强太多，但美元依旧和英镑没法比，直到二战结束，美国已经超过了整个欧洲，但仍旧需要借着黄金这张虎皮才彻底拿下了美元霸权。可见货币霸权替换有多难，不过一旦发生替换，也可以收益折腾很多年。\n\n截止 24.7 月，基于 Swift 的数据统计，全球支付货币排名，按金额口径人民币保持全球第四大最活跃货币位置，占比 4.74%（前面是美元的 47.81%，欧元的22.47%，英镑的 7%，后面跟的是日元的 3.62%，加拿大元的 2.42%，澳大利亚元的1.8%, 港币的 1.63%）。若以欧元区外的国际支付口径，则占第 5，占比 3.32%\n同时，人民币在跨境贸易金融业务金额口径上（银行间的 MT400-跟单托收，MT700-信用证开立的报文量），占比6%，超过欧元的5.83%，已经来到第二位，仅次于美元，只是美元占比实在太高，83.22%，是中国的近14倍。也就是做生意付账，全世界有83.22%使用美元，我们自己做生意，用人民币支付的份额已经达到了52%，已经超过一半。关键是，外国人跟外国人做生意的时候，用人民币太少[1]。\n\n\n革命尚未成功，同志仍需努力。24 年还闹出一个外媒乌龙，金砖支付系统要代替美元，部分自媒体添油加醋单一使用人民币。如果未来的金砖支付系统就是单一使用人民币，那就直接用中国的人民币跨境支付系统CIPS就行了，所以自媒体上造谣都不带脑子\nCIPS 是美元Swift + CHIPS 的二合一体，现在还比Swift要差很远，截止到2023年底，CIPS有1518家机构参与，Swift系统有多少家机构参与？是11,000家。差距是7倍。我们这1518家参与机构里面，大多数是间接参与者，数字是1377家；只有少数是直接参与者，数字是141家。直接参与者，相当于有电话线直连；间接参与者，只是允许他用直接参与者家里的电话去打电话。直接参与者里面，要么是中国的金融机构，要么是中国金融机构在外国的分支机构（说到底还是中国的），要么是外国的金融机构在中国的分支机构（说到底跟中国沾边）。纯粹的外国金融机构，到2023年才出现了第一家，也就是才出现零的突破，一个英国的财团-渣打（香港）银行。还不是我们日常想象的跟中国关系比较好的俄罗斯、伊朗等国家的金融机构，只想感叹，做个事不容易。\n\n瓷器国现在的货币强势程度，感觉和美国在1900年左右状态比，依旧有些差距，毕竟在1894年美国已经时世界经济第一了，所以大家不要着急得慢慢来，一代人有一代人的任务，我们这一代人就依旧得目睹美元地位被侵蚀，估计很难看到它彻底倒掉。只要它不倒掉，确实可以一直洗劫全世界，就好比村里有人打了口井，大家都用这井取水，后来挖井的人退化成了恶霸，坐在井边收管理费，但是其他人想去打井呢，又太费劲了。有人已经在重新打了，不过还没出来水，或者出来一点，水质不如恶霸的，大家依旧优先去恶霸那里，只是信用积累的时间太长，彻底败坏也需要一些年。\n接下来不出意外的话，美国会一直不断出丑，因为巅峰应该已经过了，他们现在也跟所有帝国中后半期的情况一样，饱受债务的困扰，但想看他们彻底崩了，预计还得很多年，现在说中国超过美国为时尚早。任正非有句话，现在美国对我们很恶劣，但我们要继续坚持开放，继续向美国学习，其实大家也明白，美国这么大的成就不是偶然的，而是相继引领了两次技术革命，战后几乎所革命性的技术都是他们搞出来的。他们有自己的强悍之处，有一套行之有效的方案和路线。现在为什么在打压我们，因为我们在学习他们做事，并且他们发现我们学的很对，着急慌了。现在中国学习美国企业最有模有样的，就是华为。接下来还是要学习他们剩下了的优点，不骄不躁，我们需要学习的东西实在是太多了。\n接下来呢，还是要继续摸着白头鹰过河，直到把它彻底摸秃了为止。\n参考\n1.百家号 “朋友圈”不断扩大！人民币连续9个月位居全球支付货币第四位 ↩2.腾讯网 金砖支付系统，且行且努力 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"经济学派与大变局","url":"/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E6%B4%BE%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%8F%98%E5%B1%80.html","content":"\n经济学都是政治经济学\n经济学都是政治经济学，都有阶级立场。经济学人物多如牛毛，但代表人物就这么几个人，除了马克思，都是站在资产阶级的角度来说话的。\n政治经济学的底层是人口经济学，人口结构，没有负债人群时，经济学就不管用了。\n欧洲都是小邦，诞生的经济理论只适用于国土面积小，人口少的国家，不适用于中国这样的历史悠久的大一统国家。凭什么经济理论要按西方海盗文明底色的特点来阐述？\n\n亚当斯密\n18 世纪人，如火如荼工业革命。工业资产阶级就有诉求，工业品需要市场。自己都是小国，工业剩余必要倾销，基于这个地缘的特点，就朝（周围）不发达地区倾销。都完成工业革命时，周边的倾销地有枪杆子了，倾销市场就变成殖民地\n为欧洲大陆诞生的新贵工业资产阶级背书，他出书的时候正是英国完成了工业革命，需要搞出口的时候，所以一定要鼓吹自由。大家不要设贸易壁垒，实际上强则贸易自由，弱则关税保护。\n看不见的大手，就是亚当斯密说的。亚当斯密，自由市场观点，适合资本主义萌芽阶段，契合农业到工业的切换初期。\n马克思\n马克思经济学因其辩证，对很多问题没有提出清晰的解决方案。\n马克思政治经济学的根本内核是劳动创造财富，所有权决定分配权，分解来看是：\n\n\n生产机会人人平等\n\n\n多劳多得\n\n\n生产力和生产关系\n科技是第一生产力，也是第一破坏力，破坏生产关系。\n当生产力还有上升空间，产业升级还有空间，能覆盖到大多数人，生产力决定生产关系，被掠夺的一方也是没有怨言的。\n我们更像是社会达尔文主义，也是哈耶克学派的主张。\n凯恩斯\n工业资产阶级形成后，掠夺劳动剩余，产生了矛盾，野蛮生长和战争破坏，凯恩斯就适合了。他提出政府应干预稳定经济，避免衰退和失业，搞工业升级和产业升级，钱从哪来解决办法就是财政扩张。\n哈耶克\n也可称为撒旦经济学，寄生经济学，推崇私有化。光鲜靓丽的人物多信奉他，完成了资本原始积累的人就是其拥趸，是亚当斯密的升级版，从新兴工业资产阶级跳到代表金融资产阶级的利益。金融资产阶级推崇资本无国界，在搞钱生钱的生意，印纸片子就可以买到自己想要的东西。寄生于政治主体，没有了寄生主体，寄生虫就灰飞烟灭。\n哈耶克学派的人都是寄生虫。没有集体主义，就不会有这类人的存在。没有凯恩斯做大蛋糕，就不会这些人来完成私有化原始积累。这些人完成原始资本积累后，就开始主张自由化了，又开始主张政府不要干预经济，最好是让他们想怎么搞就怎么搞。例如用 30 亿本金撬动 3000 亿资金池。这就是哈耶克的门徒干出来的。休克疗法就是哈耶克的理论，无政府主义。\n屁股坐歪的经济学家会把概念往计划经济、市场经济上包装、套，但这个世界上不存在没有计划的市场，也不存在没有市场的计划，罗斯福就是妥妥的计划经济，发国债不也是计划经济，加关税是干嘛。\n社会主义和资本主义分别是集体主义还是自由主义哪个是底色。自由主义绑架国家机器，因为金融资本主义掌握了最强的资源。\n弗里德曼\n50 年代，货币需求理论，为美元背书，要全球化。\n金融资本主义\n金融是一种邪恶的经营世界的底层哲学观念。金融天生具有阶级属性，通过金融来收买全世界的精英阶层。要抑制商人，而不是抑制商业。商业要繁荣，但商人则可能是可恶的。\n东西方的根本差异是财富来源于生产还是来源于交换，西方人是贸易理念，贸易往上就是金融。\n金融能侵蚀人性，利用人对财富的向往，邪恶的部分，控制世界。犹太想创建一个精英主义的世界公民国家。唯一遇见了咱们这个有着家国民族概念的国家，吃了一鼻子灰。\n几十年前来了一拨人最牛掰的道德非常高的集体（二战以后，人民史观只在中国真正落地），给他们整郁闷了。如果不是 PRC，这个世界都会变成那样，没逃去湾湾的秃子一定会被鱿鱼搞定。如果不是中国把自己的路线保留住了，那个人主义和精英主义就彻底胜利了，整个世界就变成一个大号的印度，犹太人就是这么设计这个世界的，没准这世界就真的进化成雪国列车，饥恶游戏，疯狂的麦克斯，黑客帝国那样。\n金融的可怕之处就是让你坠落，变成霸道，变成资本家。犹太金融不在意你成为老大（不像中国文化十世之仇犹可报也），没关系，魔鬼的使命不是为了永远存在，而是为了让你也变成魔鬼，这才是其可怕之处。\n犹太本身就是一个打副手的。他来到世间的目的是为了让你坠落，屠龙勇士终成恶龙，便是西方的故事，也是西方人那种魔鬼思维的体现。\n百年大变局\n全球大萧条可能是百年未有大变局的部分含义，20 年代的大萧条用了 20 年才走出来。\n自我改革\n2025-2029年这四年看东西罗马谁先完成了自我改革，优化分配问题，若能通过生产关系进一步促进生产力更好（有些理想化忽略了人性的缺陷），不让经济危机蔓延到自己国内，才能在这个世纪成为这个世界的债权国（货币国际化）。\n\n几百年的现代化，越来越二元对立。集体主义和自由主义，看偏向而已。\n过往美苏争霸，苏联的解体和美国的独大。是苏维埃异化了，美国更像社会主义。「戈尔巴乔夫」及「里根」只能算重要原因和直接原因，不是根本原因。谁让老百姓过得好，才能走得久，是人民的选择。\n\n金融危机\n金融危机都是债务违约，抽贷引发经济危机。一战前美国是债务国，长期通过粮食，制造业形成贸易顺差，摇身一变成为债权国，霸权也从这里开始。人和债务是密不可分的，因为债务都是由人来承接的，当一个社会不再有人去当接盘侠，为你债务转移击鼓传花的时候，就必然会发生连锁性的债务违约。\n奥观海掘墓美利坚\n奥巴马是美国的掘墓人，奥巴马通过法案，将国债上限从 2900 亿提高到 12 万亿（当时已经有 10 万亿的国债了），法案的调整从此开启美元变毛的高速公路，也使得中国不再锚定美元发行人民币，开始锚定内部的专项债，内债不是债，不会被美国收割走。奥观海想把经济危机转嫁给中国。美元贬值，资产价值升值，再加息，抽贷，资产价格贬值，再回来。对中国这套一直不成功。\n2015 年中国打赢金融保卫战，千股停牌，惨胜。而美国美元潮汐效应有些不灵了，科技霸权也走到头了，且潮汐需要一个长周期过程（进入全世界经济体，资产价格涨-跌）来消化其的财政赤字。他已经到了连利息都还不起的地步，只能进一步超发国债，提高债务上限，到了爆发经济危机的边缘，民主党的奥马巴开了法案的头，但任上发的最多的还是特朗普。\n「川普王大美兴」已变「川普兴大美亡」\n特最想干的就是让美元贬值，制造业回流，就要降息，就会发生通胀，对世界货币来说是个无解的循环。其真正的目的应该还是美联储国有化，想要建立美国的国家银行，从人类命运共同体的角度中国可助他一臂之力，消灭金融资产阶级对全世界人民的吸血。\n但天命可能不在特朗普，他可能年龄不足以完成这个事，最大的可能是干成胡佛，小概率成为罗斯福。不管怎么来说，美国的人口结构底色还是红脖子，特朗普又是三权集于一身，不应轻视，夜郎自大。2029 可能是世界的分水岭。\n最后\n分析和抱怨很符合当下大众情绪，但立场始终是想办法去解决问题更为高级。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["经济"]},{"title":"自律是一种阶级属性","url":"/%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8Bvs%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html","content":"\n\n尊重原创，文章内容摘自 红豆不迷茫 的短视频作品\n\n自律其实是一种阶级属性\n自律是一种阶级属性，不是个人属性，底层人忙于生计和限于认知，是无法长期依靠意志力来自律的。\n\n 人的意志力有限，这里用了那里就没了，意志力的再生一定要看到正反馈。（即克制牺牲收获了实际的好处）。\n\n控制身材、保持家里整洁、对孩子温柔和坚定，其实都是钱，普通人做不到才正常。\n现在铺天盖地的自律人设，更对普通人造成了极大焦虑：不自律约等于无能，让你内疚自责，然后再用快速多巴胺比如零食奶茶爽剧综艺收割你，短暂的快乐后再加倍的内疚自责，就是这么拿捏你。\n\n\n不是自律使你自由，而是清醒使你自由，只要你足够不在乎，资本就不能拿你怎样。\n\n中美阶层生活没啥两样\n漂亮国社会（阶级）分层亦特别明显：\n\n有钱人吃死贵的有机，穷人吃海克斯科技。\n在穿上体现也同样明显，美国普通人穿的衣服连腰线都没有。\n\n巨大的生活压力和闭塞的信息及认知不允许一个底层人长期靠意志力去自律的，饮食习惯和居住环境上都能反映出来。暴饮暴食重口味和乱七八糟囤积癖，都无法纯靠意志力去解决。资本先把你剥削穷，然后让你发现你好穷，再剥削一波你的焦虑和失控呀。\n全世界的韭菜都一样，有需求有欲望。资本就是要把你割的干干净净，吃喝住喘气，压力大不开心想喝奶茶，加班了辛苦了想搓一顿，哪个环节都是资本方盘子上的肉，口袋里的钱。你肚子里的菌群都是被人家训练的。你的肉身，时间，尊严，整个人生都被人盯着。\n\n消费主义陷阱就是给中产设计的，在精益求精的路上被拿捏。\n\n上层引发的道德嫉妒\n最近有一本书叫《毫无意义的工作》，里面提及到了一个关于道德嫉妒的问题，现在的有钱人如CEO不仅有钱，还会站出来说我每天早上5点钟起床，我的时间是这样分配的。这个人占据了金钱带来的快乐，同时还占据了普通人辛勤工作带来的美德感。\n若把他的成功归因于他的努力的时候，这时候普通人对自己的结论有两个，一个是我又穷又懒惰，第二个是我越懒惰越穷，是一个恶性循环。\n以偏概全的宣传\n\n错误的因果关系的假象在这个时代的宣传口上普遍存在。\n\n这个努力导致成功的因果关系真的成立吗？还是说他一开始有了初始财富，有了教育资源，社会资源，有了家庭的扶持，甚至有了伴侣的支持，这一切外在因素突然之间都不存在，只归因到了他的努力。\nSo 结论是？\n\n虽满是恶趣味，但也未尝不是一记清脆的耳光\n\n自律不能让你自由，不自律是常态，不在乎才让你自由！\n\n要不要努力？\n劝别人努力的人是否有站着说话不腰疼的问题？\n\n当你做不同层的纵向比较时，的确会发现机会窗口相差特别大。\n但落回个人的方寸之间，努力会比不努力更好！\n\n用罗曼罗兰的话来说，认清生活真相后依然热爱生活，这才是英雄，哪个英雄不经历抗争?\n改变阶层离不开自律\n既然自律是阶级属性，社会又是有阶层的。能出世，你可以选择看透不在乎。入世情况下，达到更高的自我境界，抛开一夜暴富的少数情况，还是跟自律绑定无法分开。\n底层阶层多数是失去自由的状态，就会成为牺牲品，别人的牺牲品，单位的牺牲品，社会的牺牲品，这种情况下，心理也容易变得消极，唯有重拾积极，才能面对自己，面对痛苦，解决问题。\n自律的心理基础\n《少有人走的路》的作者的观点，自律的基础是自我价值的认可。\n要自我珍惜，自我照顾，就要认可自己的价值。举例来说，有些人如把自己的时间看成是有价值的资源，是不是就更可能珍惜时间，减少拖延？表面上是时间不够，其实是因为不把自己当回事，否定了自己的价值。\n\n为何有人会否定自己的价值呢?近了说跟环境有关，远了说跟原生家庭影响有关，是一个复杂的因素。\n\n结语\n自律是我们根据自己的价值观来约束指引自己的行为，积极来看，想要达到更高的自我境界，是一个慢功夫，需要持续不断优化自己，甚至是一辈子的功夫。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"蒸馏烧酒","url":"/%E8%92%B8%E9%A6%8F%E7%83%A7%E9%85%92.html","content":"\n各类酒的材料\nflowchart LR\n    A[土豆] -->|发酵| B(土豆酒)-->|蒸馏|C(伏特加)\n    AA[龙舌兰] -->|发酵| BB(布尔盖酒)-->|蒸馏|CC(龙舌兰)\n    a[葡萄] -->|发酵| b(葡萄酒)-->|蒸馏|c(白兰地)\n    d[麦芽] -->|发酵| e(啤酒)-->|蒸馏|f(威士忌)\n    dd[甘蔗] -->|发酵| ee(甘蔗酒)-->|蒸馏|ff(朗姆酒)\n    h[糯米/黍米] -->|发酵| i(米酒)-->|蒸馏|j(白酒)\n    x[大米] -->|发酵| y(清酒)\n\n外国烧酒\n\n\n全球基本同步开始蒸馏，如红酒蒸馏白兰地也就 600 年，brandy 的词源 brand 也就是燃烧，打火印的意思。用橡木桶保存变琥珀色。\n\n\n寒冷的北欧葡萄不好种，普遍都是大麦酿的🍺，一蒸馏，Whisky，精致水的意思\n\n\n炎热的中美洲适合种甘蔗这种糖分作物，甘蔗酿的酒蒸馏成烈性的朗姆酒\n\n\n美洲的土豆/地瓜，引入东欧的波兰，俄罗斯后，如获至宝的把这个东西酿的酒蒸馏成高度数的 vodka，词源voda 就是斯拉夫语水的意思\n\n\n中美洲还有一种跟芦荟似的龙舌兰，它的大根茎里富含大量淀粉，酿造蒸馏后就成了 tequila，龙舌兰酒，但它第一次蒸馏时度数很低，要经过二次蒸馏\n\n\n图片中的金酒，简单说原料是杜松子，有误导性。所谓的「Gin」指的是一种以谷物为原料，并以杜松子为主的多种药材与香料调味后，所制造出来的一种蒸馏酒，因为是以杜松子作为主要调味，所以很多人会称「琴酒」为「杜松子酒」，大家除了杜松子加其他东西各不一样，并无规范。当然确实在琴酒的世界中有只用杜松子做为单一原料，像义大利萨丁尼亚的「独奏曲琴酒Solo Wild Gin」，但是极少数派[1]。\n\n\n中国烧酒\n中国的第一锅蒸馏，技术质量也控制不好，含有醛，酮等杂质，一般会采取第二锅蒸馏的头一道酒为最佳，也就有了二锅头酒的名称。\n酒都是酒精+水的区别，正是蒸的时候伴随出来的 不同原材料微生物导致的复杂的高级醇，酯，酮类物质也被一起蒸出来提纯，形成了各自特殊的风味\n\n如泥窖+酒曲能蒸出富含己酸乙酯，丁酸乙酯的浓香型白酒\n二锅头这种更纯粹的乙醇就是清香型白酒\n用石窖酿的酒就会含有丰富的芳香型物质，就是酱香型白酒\n\n白酒莫吹\n白酒的历史不过百多年，蒸馏器元代诞生（是一种中东萃取药品的技术，经元朝向东传播的结果，英语 alcohol 就是阿拉伯语提炼精华的意思），但白酒的清晰传播历史记录，是清中后期的事了，成规模流行是清末民初。\n白酒在中国历史上就是非主流，一直是底层劳动者的麻醉品，有身份的没人喝辛辣火燎的烧酒。白酒翻身是 PRC 的军人爱喝，把旧时代的东西统统推翻掉，旧时代打土豪抄家抄没的都是绍兴，青岛产的黄酒。\n老百姓翻身，难道就不像喝点好的？精英阶层喝黄酒，喝葡萄酒，他们就不想？但粮食短缺，严格管控，黄酒损耗粮食太严重，给生存让路是第一要务，被国营的知名黄酒品牌主要是出口换汇用。那时我们能出口的只有粮食和基本矿产，粮食短缺一直持续到 70 年代末，黄酒文化基本断代 30 年，很多 50,60,70 都没喝过黄酒这东西，顶多是个药引子。\n早期的白酒基本都是高淀粉杂粮，比如说地瓜干酒，白酒只要是含糖含淀粉的农作物都可以，地瓜，土豆，糖厂的下脚料甘蔗干，甜菜渣，甚至是秸秆都成。白酒质量和口味讲究起来，成为奢侈品都是肉粮能吃饱以后的事。现在酿酒的顶梁柱是高粱，它成为酿酒主材，就是因为它旱涝地，盐碱地都能种，高粱杆还是编席的材料，真饿了还能吃，后来说的「单宁」这事是凑巧了。浓香，酱香，清香，米香这些概念是六七十年代才有的。从这些来讲，白酒品牌不要动辄上千年的来说故事，品牌要尊重历史。\n补记葡萄酒一些内容\n酿酒红葡萄的四大品种\n赤霞珠–Cabernet Sauvignon，皮厚晚熟，单宁重，涩，酒特别能存放，适合配硬菜\n梅洛/美乐–Merlot，口感柔和，更易入口，果酱感强。不确定大家的口味，容错率最高\n黑皮诺–Pinot Noir，颜色浅，有花果香，酸度高，酒出品依赖种植地和手艺，最顶级在法国勃艮第\n西拉/设拉子–Syrah/Shiraz，产地不同出品口味也不同，有黑胡椒味或浓郁果酱味，就像一个移花宫，一个恶人谷\n\n巨峰这种是鲜食葡萄，不是酿酒葡萄\n\n用乌龙茶来比喻\n赤霞珠：肉桂\n梅洛：水仙\n黑皮诺：凤凰单枞\n西拉：铁观音（清香型 浓香型）\n红酒的涩\n葡萄带皮酿酒会涩，有皮就有涩味，留糖去皮的香槟或白葡萄酒就没涩味。但白葡萄酒保存时间一般长不了，建议 2~3 年内喝掉。\n兑着喝\n西方某些师傅追求于去除葡萄酒里的糖份，而东方红酒+雪碧，威士忌加冰红茶，大家玩的时候常见的很，因为不是中国的传统文化，想怎么喝就怎么喝，也有好多女士不会喝酒觉得涩所以兑一下。但一旦喝茅台，我们不会加别的东西，冰块也不行。\n参考\n1.GQ 琴酒常见的25 种原料介绍 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史","生物"]},{"title":"蚂蚁上市受难记","url":"/%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E5%8F%97%E9%9A%BE%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\n吃瓜经过\n\n摩拳擦掌\n11月初的互联网好不热闹，大家都等着蚂蚁金服的上市，摩拳擦掌，超额认购，最大IPO，都想从蚂蚁身上成为股东挣得一桶。当时的热火劲信息描述很多，我就没必要费那个口水搬运了\n风云突变\n波云诡谲，杭州马外滩金融峰会上爆出惊人言论，炮轰监管，直怼当局，显出了不恰身份的不成熟。来自未来的同学请去搜视频搜图\n各路吃瓜\n接着网络上朋友圈的吃瓜群众们炸开了锅，有号召给杭州厉害马点赞的，有金融业从业者不服马云的（这是普遍态，都想其被深深公平监管），有朋友说蚂蚁背后有很多红二代，才敢炮轰监管。有人说这下要凉（我站这派），有夸赞还是深圳马低调，也有说PeterMa(马明哲)才是深得低调真谛。\n传媒有意误导\n最炸的是凑热点的短视频，立即跟进讲解ABS（Asset-backed Securities，资产证券化），我听了一番，哦，这个讲的好，其实这里不是蚂蚁不受监管，其实也受监管，视频里或普遍说ABS的文章里提及的杠杆率，早被蚂蚁在最近的3年时间内同银行业伙伴一样，降下去了。早期放贷业务开启时，的确是ABS化，杠杆高，但受监管影响，早变成联合放款模式了。自有资金占比极低，这波就属于纯粹带节奏的。\n暂缓上市\n不过随着四部门约谈，蚂蚁觉得大局已定，并未对网络上的各路言论进行澄清。A股上不了，港股主动撤下上市计划，避免定价破发更无法交代。\n到底咋个蚂蚁变蚂蟥\n\n内部说法\n有朋友在蚂蚁内部，掌握的经营信息还是比较充分正确，但结论不正确，通过马老板膨胀了来解释这个事情（杭州马没有按照宣传稿件来讲，而是自己发挥），从而导致大家不能上市暴富。\n答案在风中飘，但肯定不是马老板气血上涌一时飘，毕竟大会讲稿早就准备好了。马老板是知道结果，酝酿几天还是真性情一把，兵行险着，携民意演一把试试，但这一出也可能使得后续不再有马云的时代（此语来自短视频界）\n内部人士当然情绪上认为蚂蚁做的都是对的，高效率的，只是马老板不对。\n真实为啥\n扒开BigTech招股书看看\n历史上数次金融危机均与“大而不能倒”的金融机构出现问题有关，将上市的蚂蚁集团虽然津津乐道于为中小企业服务，但其上市招股书的数据已被专业人士研究个透，其以80%为消费贷款为主的盈利模式，年轻人仅凭信用担保难免会埋下金融风险。\n\n2.1万亿贷款余额的，那么消费贷款1.7万亿，意味着如果有1亿人欠债的话，这1亿人平均每人欠了1.7万元，这明显偏离了央行掌握的大数据\n\n四宗罪\n\n赢家通吃，造成市场垄断和不公平竞争\n增强金融风险传播性（经营模式和算法趋同，易引发羊群效应，导致市场大起大落；前面这解释扯淡，只是店大欺客，信用放贷KPI凶猛，传导风险给银行是真）\n\n剩余扯淡凑韵的两宗\n\n\n诱导过度负债消费（被一些文章冠了一个帽子，金融价值观扭曲），只不过是托词，KPI导向信用放贷过猛才是真\n\n\n过度采集客户数据，更是扯淡的托词。\n\n\n\n就像中国历史上都要凑个四一样，战国四公子，京城四少，江南四大才子（才子之间能级明显有差距，可见唐伯虎点秋香）\n\nBigTech与金融业的冲突\n\n\n原来银行是信贷中介，现在通过市场分工来实现（强势甲方变乙方，十分的不爽）\n\n\n可能存在BigTech公司与银行利益不一致，风险责任不清以及助贷风险向银行传导等问题。（实操层面这是实话）\n\n\n金融业说我助小微你选择看不见\n在普惠金融主力军方面，银行业的小微企业贷款和普惠小微企业贷款余额达到40.7万亿和13.7万亿，而蚂蚁集团发放的小微经营信贷余额不到5000亿（应该还是受资本金的限制，不要谁喊声大就听谁的）。\n金融业说蚂蚁过分吹大数据风控\n在放贷时，BigTech公司与银行贷款一样，也使用担保品。如现金担保，电商平台账上都有现金或余额宝账号上有钱。二是应收账款担保，电商商户并不是立即收到货款的，有7天的收账款间隔。三是摊位费担保，保证金，技术服务年费等。这些措施不能归功于大数据风控。\n蚂蚁的优势确实在C端\n服务产业要跟产业滚在一起，这点上阿里系走轻模式，其实组织能力模型对B端服务的构建和认知还没有京东金融捆绑赋能产业链来得深。另一种视角可能京东链的抵押物更多，大玩家也更多，更放得开手。\n其对于企业数据信息的累计上，并不对传统银行有优势，这是BigTech与传统银行的差别，无需各执一词，而是现实情况。\n监管的态度\n如果金融企业涉及了吸收公共存款，就要对其进行审慎监管，因为蚂蚁平台其实属于变相吸收公众存款，它有一些金融业务牌照，又可以进行与银行类似的存贷款业务，就需要进行审慎监管。个人觉得就算理论上只是代销（我认为可看作影子银行），其平台放大能力，也不得不更加投以监管关注的目光。\n金融危机的教训\n金融危机的一个主要教训就是对影子银行链条认识不请，监管不力。面对类似影子银行的创新业务，必须要强调监管的一致性，特别要重视新巴塞尔协议作用和实施。\n风险识别，计量，防范和处置等方法的普遍适用和不断进步，正是巴塞尔协议与时俱进的基础，也是国际上对BigTech公司金融业务进入监管的出发点\n对于BigTech公司而言，如果其涉足类似银行的存贷款业务，对于类似的业务必须要有准备金，资本金，杠杆率，流动性等监管要求，保持监管的一致性\n后记\n个人的看法里，金融界一直有我放开了玩的冲动，很多创新机制理论上没问题，为效率挺好挺美的，但实操层面，因为人的参与就会出现各种纰漏与变形。所以在金融层面引入审慎监管是有必要的，别的不说，理论上没有经济危机或金融危机，但还是实实在在会发生。\n黑钱为什么能洗白，跟实操层面的理解和跟踪复杂性一个道理。\n借用一句比较糙的话，你不能假装人（官员/从业者/评级机构）都有最高尚的道德和最过硬的能力，就像假装新中国没有娼妓一样。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"让大脑自由","url":"/%E8%AE%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html","content":"\n司令官的分层与发展\n\n人类可虚构出并不存在的事物。我们之所以称为人类，是因为我们能够幻想。\n细分下来说，还有一种能力–象征推理，也是人类最重要的特质（如五边形联想到五角大楼）。但这个能力全面运作起来，要经过3年的体验。说句玩笑话，在3岁之前，人类看起来与大猩猩没有区别。这种能力可能出于我们需要了解彼此的意图，动机，此能力使得人类在一个小团体内的协作称为可能\n\n幻想能力并不是在人一出生就完全形成了，大约需要3年时间。有实验表明如果她只有30个月大，就难以完成象征性地的推理，例如不能将玩具屋“小房间”与实验室“大房间”建立起联系。但若她已经36个月大，那就不一样了。所以3岁是一个很奇妙的时间点，也难怪3岁幼儿园开始喽。\n脑的分层\n我们头颅里不仅只有一个大脑，而是有三个。蜥蜴脑控制我们的呼吸，我们还有一个和猫大脑一样的大脑，在这两部分大脑上覆盖着一层类似果子冻薄薄的物质，是人类大脑第三个组成部分，也是强大且人类特有的大脑。\n\n\n\n脑干的功能与蜥蜴脑干的功能相同，脑干控制人身体的一些杂事，它的神经元调节呼吸，心率，睡眠和觉醒。脑干神经总是处于活跃之中。\n\n\n\n在脑干之上是古哺乳类脑，它更多地与人类动物性生存活动相关，可以成为3F活动：战斗（Fighting），觅食（Feeding），逃跑（Fleeing）以及生殖。\n\n在哺乳类脑中有一个重要区域，杏仁核，让人有愤怒，恐惧或愉快的感觉，负责情绪产生以及情绪所产生的记忆。\n另一个重要区域是海马体，海马体将人类短时记忆转换成长期记忆。\n还有一个重要的被包裹区域，丘脑，它是感觉的控制塔，是大脑中最活跃，构造最精细的部分之一。它位于大脑的正中心，处理来自感觉器官各角落的信号（皮肤和内脏的触压觉，痛温觉，视听觉），然后将信号传至整个大脑的特定区域。其下方的下丘脑是内脏活动和内分泌活动的高级神经中枢，如调节体温，水平衡、血糖，内分泌腺活动和生长发育等\n嗅球：连接了嗅觉神经，嗅觉信号会绕过丘脑直奔目的地\n\n\n皮层。直到一战前，人们还不知道最外层的皮层每个区域都是高度专门化的，有语言区域，视觉区域，记忆区域。\n\n一战有大量的人员中弹受伤，医疗技术使他们活了下来。战争中大脑受伤的士兵很多，科学家有机会详尽研究各种损伤及由于脑损伤导致士兵的奇怪行为。\n接着后来的二战，科学家们进一步证实了他们的发现，最终绘制出人类大脑的完整结构功能图，发现大脑在亿万年来使如何变化的。\n\n\n\n进化的驱动力\n发生了什么事让我们开始了这样的进化之旅，迄今最明确的解释是：人类的伟大成就看起来主要与讨厌的天气变化有关。天气的变化瓦解了我们祖先的食物供应，他们被迫从树上下来，到大草原生活，之后人类通过适应变化本身接管了地球。从四条腿走路到两条腿直立行走在大草原上，这节省了能量，让人类的大脑得以发展的更加复杂，精密。\n\n祖先的身体没有用剩余的能量来打造我们的肌肉，而是用来提升我们的大脑智慧。学习了如何在整个地球的大环境中生存，而不是一两个小生态环境中生存，我们学会了在头脑中而不是在嘴里长满尖锐的牙齿\n\n气候危机的源头猜测\n一些研究人员将这种气候变化归咎于喜马拉雅山的耸起，山的高度扰乱了全球气流，另一些学者指责突然出现的巴拿马地峡，改变了太平洋和大西洋洋流的混合，扰乱全球天气形势，就像今天的厄尔尼诺现象。\n越运动，大脑越正常\n特别的司令官\n虽然大脑只占常人体重的2%，却消耗了人体所需总能量的20%，当其处于完全工作状态时，单位组织重量消耗的能量要远远超过处在完全运动状态的四头肌。事实上，在任何时候，人类的大脑都不能同时启用超过2%的神经元，超过这些，供应的葡萄糖会被迅速消耗掉，人就会昏过去。\n大脑如此活跃，这也意味着大脑需要大量富氧血液，人不喝水可以坚持一周左右，然而大脑没有氧气它根本坚持不过5分钟，否则就面临严重或永久伤害。\n运动对大脑的保健\n运动使更多血液流向大脑，带来丰富的葡萄糖作为能量，还能带走氧气吸附遗留下来的有害电子。也能刺激蛋白生成，促使神经元彼此连接。活跃的儿童注意力更加集中。只要每周两次有氧运动可以将罹患一般老年痴呆的风险降低一半，阿尔兹海默症风险减少60%。\n\n我们的祖先在面临气候变迁时被迫四处迁徙，攀爬。开始在干旱的二维大草原走来走去，这需要很多体力。那时成年男子每天大约要走10~20公里路，妇女走大约一半。这意味着我们神奇的大脑是在人类不断解决问题的过程中，而不是在懒洋洋地躺着的过程中进化的。\n\n运动Make Us Better\n我们还不习惯在教室里或办公室的小隔间里面一坐就是8小时，也许还需几百万年时间人类才能适应这种久坐的生活方式。将运动整合到8小时的工作和学习中不会让我们变得更聪明，它只会让我们变得正常。\n每个大脑都不同\n越用越强\n大脑就像肌肉，你让它做的运动越多，它就变得越大，越复杂，人类生活中所做的一切实际都会改变大脑的样子，就例如你可以通过演奏乐器或从事某项运动等选择来塑造或重塑自己。\n\n野生动物的大脑比家养动物大脑大15~30%，寒冷，艰苦的环境迫使野生动物处于学习模式中，将野生动物的大脑塑造得非常不同。\n\n日常生活中你做了些什么，学了什么都会导致大脑形态的重新塑造，对每个人来说，这些变化都是独一无二的。即使具有相同经历的同卵双胞胎，他们的大脑也不是按照完全相同的方式布线的，你可以将整个事情都归因于经历。\n\n当神经元处于学习状态时，它们膨胀，摇摆进而分裂，在一点断开连接，滑行到附近的一个区域，与那里的新邻居建立连接，还有一些原地不动的神经元只是增强了彼此间电连接，提高信息传递的效率。你大脑深处大量的神经元像爬行动物一样移动着，蜿蜒滑行至新地点，一端处于膨胀或分裂状态。\n\n在大脑手术前无法预测大脑某个精确区域的功能，因为世界上没有两个完全相同构造的大脑，每个大脑不仅在结构上存在不同，在功能上也是不同的。每个人大脑中存储语言的区域是不同的，双语人群甚至不在相似的地方存储两种语言。且大脑每个区域在不同人之间以不同的速度发育。\n几个阶段高峰\n婴儿刚出生时，他们的大脑有着和成人大约相同数量的连接。儿童到了3岁时，他们大脑某些特定区域的连接已经增长了2~3倍。这种增长也不会持续很久，因为大脑不久就将这些成千上万的小分支修剪了，儿童大约到了8岁时，大脑中连接的数量又回到成人的标准。\n在青春期，整件事又重新开始，神经狂热地生长后又被愤怒地修剪回去，直到上高中时，孩子们的大脑开始以成年人大脑的样子安定下来，这个发展过程就像一个双驼峰。从连通性角度看，两岁孩子的大脑相当活跃，之后，十几岁青少年大脑更加活跃。\n皮肤闲话\n一个普通人皮肤重量约为9磅，其表皮细胞实际都处于死亡状态，作用就是为人体内其它细胞遮风挡雨，确保它们正常发挥作用。准确地说，人类露在外面的每一寸皮肤几乎都已经死了。\n大脑不关注无聊的事\n每一刻，你大脑中数以百万计的感觉神经元同时被激发，它们都携带信息，都在试图抓住你的注意力，然而只有少数能成功突破引起你的察觉，其余的或部分或全部都被你忽略掉，你读一句话时，能感觉到胳膊肘在哪儿吗？抓住你注意力的信息被连接到记忆，兴趣和知觉中去了。\n大脑不断扫描感官视野，不断评估事件潜在的兴趣或重要性，对重要事件给于额外的注意力。不管你是谁，大脑对以下问题都非常关注:\n\n\n我能吃它吗？它会不会吃我？\n\n\n我可以与他交配吗？他会不会与我交配？\n\n\n我以前见过它吗？\n\n\n没有完全记住危险经历或没有获得足够食物的祖先，不会活得足够长久以传递他们的基因。人脑中有许多专用系统，专注于生殖机会和危险的识别。我们也是极好的模式匹配者，不断评估环境以寻找相似之处，也更容易记住我们认为过去曾见过的东西。\n避免多任务处理\n这听起来令人费解，明明大家感知某些情况下大脑在进行着多任务处理，如一边走路一边说话，读书时心跳如常，钢琴家左右手同时演奏作品，确实，这就是多任务处理。\n我们这里说的多任务谈的事大脑集中注意力的能力，注意能力无法多任务操作。从生物学角度来讲，我们没有能力同时处理多个注意力丰富的输入。大脑自然地按顺序将注意力集中，在概念上，一次只能注意一件事。\n\n将序贯化的大脑强行带入多任务环境，就像是试图把右脚塞到左脚的鞋子一样。\n\n心流的重要性\n研究表明，一个人如果在工作过程中被打扰，那么他需要比原来多50%的时间才能完成任务，不仅如此，他出错的几率增加了50%。大脑每次转换任务时需要的那零点几秒。\n开车打手机者在紧急情况下要比不打手机者慢半秒踩下刹车，且在紧急情况后，要比不打手机的人需要更长时间才能恢复到正常的速度。80%的事故都发生在司机某种形式分心的3秒钟里，增加任务切换量就是增加事故的风险。开车打电话的人相比较注意力集中的司机可错过发现的50%以上的视觉线索，除了酒后驾车的人以外，开车打手机的人更容易出交通事故。\n沟通的建议\n人们最常见的沟通错误是什么？讲话的人谈了太多的信息，对于听众来说，没有用足够的时间将说话者所讲的点滴内容串连起来，就像被强制喂食的鹅，很少消化。大多数专家对他们要谈的话题如此熟悉，导致他们忘记作为一个新手是什么样子的了。\n大脑它喜欢层次结构，在处理细节之前需要先处理含义，要点，核心概念，实验表明这种方式能将听众理解力提高40%。\n10分钟注意力\n9分59秒后，观众的注意力开始准备下降到零，需要继续给听众下饵。饵料要能触发情感，无论哪种情感都很管用。\n注意力习惯的文化差别\n不同的环境带来不同的期望，文化对人类注意力的影响也很重要，亚洲城市人十分关注视觉景象的背景，对前景目标和背景之间的关系也十分关注，而美国城市人不同，对背景的感知要弱得多，这可能会影响如何认知某一特定的商务营销报告或学术讲座。\n总结\n良好的注意力总是对应着良好的学习，它改善了个体阅读材料的记忆结果，改善了写作，科学，数学方面的准确性和清晰程度。如果教师无法抓住学生的兴趣，知识就不会被存入学生的大脑数据库中。\n我们无法对无聊的事情集中精神，大脑的注意力聚光灯一次只能集中在一件事情上，不能多任务处理。与记住细节相比，我们更善于参照模式以及提炼事件的含义。\n情绪唤起有利于大脑学习，听众会在讲座开始的10分钟后走神儿，不过你可通过讲故事或制造一个富含情绪的事件来抓住听众的注意力。\n短时记忆\n我们强大的记忆给我们提供了巨大的优势，也是为什么我们身体柔弱，却可以在如此拥挤的星球上成功立足的原因。\n编码提取，分类分布式存储\n表述性记忆的生命周期可被分为四个连续的步骤：编码，存储，检索和遗忘。当信息进入大脑，它被逐个切成不连续的碎片，并在我们的脑子里四处飞溅，来自不同感官的信号被记录在大脑的不同区域，信息一进入大脑的瞬间被立刻被分成碎片并被重新分配。\n当你看一幅构图复杂的图片：\n\n你的大脑会立即将图画中的对角线从垂直线条中提取出来，把它们存放在大脑的单独区域。\n对于颜色也以同样的方式处理\n如果图片是动态的，其运动的事实也将被提取，并储存在一个不同于存放静止图片的另一个地方。\n\n实证分散存储的病例\n\n一位妇女一个特定区域发生中风后，她失去了书面填写元音的能力。每个字母都有自己的存储空间，不过该名妇女放元音的地点是空的。中风破坏了她大脑中某种连接通路，恰恰与录像机记录事情的原理完全相反。是不是难以置信，这个世界在我们看来似乎是一个整体，元音辅音竟是被分别记录的特征。\n\n大脑中没有什么记忆的中心天堂，在那里记忆可以被无限次地检索，相反，记忆遍布于皮层的表面。研究数据表明，人类大脑中并没有一个与计算机类似的硬盘驱动器，大脑每个区域对记忆都有各自不同的贡献，记忆存储是一个合作性质的活动。\n记忆坐在感知旁\n由于大脑中存储某一事件记忆的地方，也是最初被用于感知学习事件的区域。在学习时刻，学习者利用越多的脑结构就意味着安装了越多的门把手，日后学习者更容易回忆起记忆的信息。\n大脑对某个特定刺激越集中注意力，关于这个刺激物详细的信息就会被大脑编码并保留，日后能被记起的大多数事件，决定性都发生在学习的最初时刻（取决于最初几秒钟），我们在记忆的最初时刻对其编码得越精细，记忆就越牢固。如果你能复制你在记忆某个事情时的周围环境，你可以提高记起这个事情的几率。\n长期记忆\n\n海马专门负责将短时记忆转换成长期形式。短期转长期取决于有规律的重复\n\n记忆检索机制\n理顺为两个通用的模型：\n\n一个是被动想象的图书馆。在图书馆模式下，接到检索命令后馆藏内容被带进自觉意识，这样记忆就被检索了。这种温和的过程有时被称为再生检索。\n另一个是主动想象的犯罪现场。每个现场都有一个福尔摩斯，检查了现有的部分证据，然后，基于推理和猜测，侦探重建了案发现场，即重建了记忆（基于零散的数据重建事实）。\n\n哪个模式才是正确的？\n\n\n两个都是，使用哪个检索系统可能取决于被搜寻信息的种类以及从最初记忆形成至检索之时过去了多长的时间。\n\n\n实际上，你青少年时代编码形成的记忆与你成年时的回忆很少有相似之处。\n\n\n\n在一次学习结束后相对较早的一段时间（几分钟到几个小时到几天），检索系统允许我们对某一记忆再生出一个相当具体和详细的账目，可比拟为图书馆模式。\n随着时间推移，我们逐步切换到福尔摩斯风格的检索模式。\n\n极易被修改的记忆\n为了使一个故事连贯，大脑会乐于插入一些虚假的信息。\n在一个事件发生之后，立即思考或讨论这件事，有助于增强对这一事件的记忆，甚至能决定形成记忆的种类。这种趋势对执法专业人士极为重要，说明了为什么在一场犯罪发生后，尽可能让证人立刻提供信息具有十分重要的意义。\n\n\n大量的记忆在最初接触被记忆材料后的一或两个小时就消失了，这种记忆丧失可以通过有意的重复大大减少。记忆很像水泥，需要大量的时间才能形成永久的形式，虽然它一直都在忙着硬化，但人类记忆极易被修改。\n\n\n对于现实，大脑只给了我们一个近似的见解，因为他把新知识同过去的记忆混在了一起，并把新知识，旧记忆当成一个事物存储在一起。\n\n\n遗忘的作用\n\n遗忘对我们发挥自身其他方面的能力起着非常重要的作用，助于我们可以将事件区分优先次序。如果我们给那些与我们生存无关的事件与我们生存息息相关的事件同样的优先权，那么它们会占据我们的认知空间，造成浪费。我们将不重要的记忆变得不稳定，从而忘掉它们。\n\n与生存无关的事情占据认知空间是一种浪费，我们学了一堆讨生活用不上的知识记不住也是一个道理\n\n\n大部分的记忆在几分钟之内就消失了，不过那些度过了脆弱期的记忆随着时间的推移在逐渐增强。\n\n重复的功效\n使长期记忆变得更可靠的方式是，将新的信息逐步输入大脑并在固定的时间间隔温习这些信息。\n重复和记忆之间的关系式很清楚的，如果你想将来的回忆尽可能鲜活，那么就在固定时间间隔，有意将自己反复暴露于更精致的信息之下。\n\n如果距离期末考试只有一周的时间，你打算对某一科目复习十遍，那么在一周时间将十次复习间隔开进行，要比一股脑将十次复习挤在一起进行效果要好得多。\n\n我们应该像看待增强免疫力的疫苗那样看待学习，注射第一针疫苗后，要在半年或一年后进行第二三针的补注。所以学习也应以一年或半年为基础，对信息的关键点进行重复。\n神经信息传递实验\n突触前的神经元为老师，突触后的神经元为学生，老师神经元的目的就是将信息（本质上是电子的）传递给学生细胞。\n据实验观察，90分钟没有得到相同的信息，学生神经元兴奋水平将消失，就像重置了。如何将初始兴奋转换成一种长期形式呢？那就是一段时间后，信息要被重复。实验中，每隔10分钟刺激一下，共三次，老师神经元和学生神经元之间的关系开始发生变化，在得到越来越少输入，就可以引起学生越来越强烈的输出。这种很像谈恋爱是不？\n突触固化所需的时间间隔是以分钟和小时为单位衡量的，数据坚实的表明，在学习过程中重复至关重要。\n记忆硬化的等待时间\n\n\n\n几年~10年\n\n\n10年后，记忆就不受海马体损伤影响，在之前，海马一直与该记忆形成有关\n\n\n\n一旦一条信息被长期存储，需要多长时间它才能被转变成完全稳定的状态呢？换个方式来问：需要多长时间海马才可以与表层脱离关系？答案是：几年时间。\n如果海马参与了所有的记忆能力，那么海马的彻底摘除应破坏所有的记忆能力，但事实并不是所有的记忆被清除了。当某一事件被大脑长期存储后，在超过10年的时间里，海马一直与该事件的记忆形成有关。10年之后，不知怎地，记忆指派到另一个区域，不受海马脑损伤影响。在很多年里，海马一直紧紧抓着新形成的记忆痕迹，不是几个月，是几年，甚至是10年或者更久（长期记忆在海马和大脑皮层间的双向交流中形成，直到海马切断了与皮层之间的联系，记忆才被固定在皮层中）。\n系统固化，是将不稳定的记忆转变成持久形式的过程，这一过程可能需要几年的时间才能完成，在这段时间里，记忆是不稳定的。\n睡得好，大脑才会转得好\n虽然大脑没有遵从生物能量学的原则去很好地控制的行为（它不能真实的停工），不过身体的其它部位在睡眠过程中真的是休息了。\n大脑在睡眠期干什么活\n大脑似乎根本就没有睡着，在我们认为的“休息”期，大脑却处在令人难以置信的活跃之中，与它处于完全清醒时相比，睡眠期间大脑显示出更有节律性的活动。真正休息期出现在最深睡眠阶段，即无快速眼动睡眠阶段，不过它只占总睡眠周期的20%左右。\n如同小白鼠一样，人类似乎在夜间慢波睡眠阶段回放日间的学习经历/内容，但与小白鼠不同的是，更多的情绪刺激记忆似乎在睡眠周期的不同阶段反复重放。\n是否有可能我们需要睡觉的原因仅仅是为了暂时关闭外部世界，让我们能把更多的注意力资源转移到认知上来？\n清醒与睡觉的拉锯战\n大脑中有两股同由细胞和化学物质构成的战斗力量，它们处于持续紧张的战斗状态中，一股力量试图让你睡觉，而另一股力量试图让你清醒。\n人体拥有一系列生物钟，全部由大脑中各个分散区域控制，为我们觉醒和睡眠经历提供了一个有节奏的时间表。每时每刻都有两种力量在你的体内斗争：\n\n一支军队由神经元，荷尔蒙和其它各种化学物质组成，目的就是近一切力量让你保持清醒。\n有一支同样强大的军队在抵制它们，这支军队同样由脑细胞，荷尔蒙及各种化学物质组成，目的就是尽一切可能让你睡眠。\n\n这是一场奇怪的，甚至自相矛盾的战争。一支队伍控制战场的时间越长，越有可能在接下来失利。每支军队都因为自主行事而筋疲力尽。\n即使你生活在洞穴里，这个过程也会发生。昼夜觉醒系统和恒定睡眠驱力之间每天的胜利投降循环是可以预测的。\n生物钟模式\n百灵鸟\n大约每10个人中就有1个是百灵鸟型，中午前后头脑最为敏捷，一般不需要闹钟，通常在早上6点之前自己醒过来，他们在傍晚时候就感到昏昏欲睡，晚上九点左右就已经上床睡觉了\n猫头鹰\n10个人中有2个是猫头鹰型，在下午6点左右头脑最为敏捷，傍晚时分工作效率最高，很少在凌晨3点前睡觉，需要闹钟在早上将其叫醒。一整天都在一杯一杯喝咖啡以保证自己在工作时候头脑清醒，晚时型的个体在一生中积累了大量的“睡眠债务”。\n蜂鸟型\n百灵鸟型和猫头鹰型只覆盖了30%左右的人，其它多数人可称为蜂鸟型。\n有问题型\n一天只需要四五个小时睡眠的人，应该被认为患有健康失眠。\n生物钟在年龄段的变化\n学生在他们的青少年时代（13-19岁）会暂时转变为更多的猫头鹰时型，睡眠荷尔蒙（如褪黑素）在青少年大脑中含量最高，这些孩子自然趋势就是睡得更多，特别是在早上的时候。\n随着年龄的增长，我们需要的睡眠量减少了。\n白天的小憩\n需要多长时间的睡眠，以及什么时候睡觉，在这个方面人人都不同，但人类经常需要小睡一会儿，尤其在下午小睡一会儿的生物性驱动力人人都有。\n一些学者认为，夜间的长时间睡眠加上中午的短时间午休代表了人体最自然的睡眠行动。\n睡眠的化学作用\n睡眠缺失会损伤人的注意力，执行功能，工作记忆，情绪，数学能力，逻辑推理甚至运动灵巧性。\n如果一个30岁健康成年人连续6天睡眠被剥夺（只睡4个小时），他身体部分的体能化学水平很快下降，变成了60岁老人的水平。如果他们恢复到原来正常的睡眠时间，还需几乎一个星期左右的时间，这些体能才能恢复到他们30岁时的正常水平。\n压力会损伤你的大脑\n对人的身体来说，剑齿虎，高潮和火鸡肉汁看起来非常相似，被唤起的生理状态表现出既紧张又愉快的特点。\n压力伤害记忆能力\n大脑中的海马是保存人类记忆的要塞，其表面镶嵌有皮质醇探测器，使海马对压力信号极为敏感。\n如果压力过于严重或持续时间太长，就会影响到学习。高应激性成年人的成绩比低应激性成绩差50%，具体来说：压力会伤害表述性记忆（你可以描述的一些事情）和执行功能（与解决问题有关的某种类型的思考能力），而这些能力是在学校和职场表现的出类拔萃所必需的能力。\n\n戴安娜王妃因车祸去世当晚与她同车的保镖，直到今天，还完全回忆不起来车祸发生前后几个小时内的事情，这是对严重创伤的一个典型反应。\n与这个反应相比，症状稍轻的健忘，在人群中很常见。如今大多数人都在承受着不是十分严重，但却非常普遍的压力。\n\n皮质醇与BDNF\n有这样两个分子：一个是恶棍，一个是英雄。恶棍就是皮质醇，是成分混杂的糖皮质激素的一部分，可成为压力荷尔蒙。由肾上腺分泌，肾上腺像屋顶一样覆盖在肾的上方，对神经信号极其敏感，它们好像曾经是大脑的一部分，不知什么原因掉了下来，落在了人类的肚子里。应激激素可以断开神经网络，阻止海马体产生全新的神经元。\n大脑似乎意识到了这一切，所以不仅为我们的故事安排了坏人，也安排了一个英雄。就是脑源性神经营养因子BDNF，像一个配备有神器肥料的常备军，在敌对行动面前，保持着神经元的存活和生长。\n长期应激的其它坏处\n长期处于慢性应激刺激下的人更容易生病，很多人是经常生病。\n你的身体的防御系统通过释放肾上腺素和皮质醇，对严重的，短暂的危险做出即刻的反应。慢性应激，如家庭中的矛盾，严重损害我们身体的防御系统，因为我们身体的防御系统进化之初只是为了处理短时的压力反应。\n在慢性应激下，肾上腺素在你的血管壁上造成伤痕，会导致心脏病发作或引起中风。而皮质醇会伤害海马的细胞，从而削弱你的学习和记忆能力。\n抑郁症\n抑郁症是对一系列思维进程失去管理的表现，其中包括记忆，语言，定量推理，流体智力和空间感知，这串名单很长。对个体而言，最坏的压力是你感觉对问题失去了控制，感到束手无策，无依无靠。除非你亲身体验抑郁，否则这些特征没有一个是你所熟悉的。\n\n流体智力（Fluid Intelligence）是一种以生理为基础的认知能力，如知觉、记忆、运算速度、推理能力等。 流体智力是与晶体智力相对应的概念，流体智力随年龄的老化而减退。 而晶体智力则并不随年龄的老化而减退。\n晶体智力主要指学会的技能、语言文字能力、判断力、联想力等\n\n家庭情绪的重要性\n学生在学校成绩的最大预言者原来竟是学生在家里的情绪稳定性。生活在焦虑家庭环境的儿童，学习成绩无法和那些无忧无虑孩子的学习成绩相提并论。父母冲突越严重，对子女学习成绩的影响也就越大。\n职场压力数据\n每年5.5亿个工作日旷工中，有一半的旷工跟压力大有关。压力的类型，职业激励和厌倦之间的平衡性以及员工家庭的生活情况，这三件事情关系到一个工作场所员工承受的压力是否过大。\n大脑喜欢多重感觉的世界\n更多感觉，更多留存\n我们通过感官获得某一件事情的信息，将其翻译成电子信号（一些来自视觉，一些来自听觉等），然后将这些信号发送到大脑的不同区域，接着对发生的一切重建，最后大脑对整件事件有了认知。\n大脑似乎部分依赖过去的经历，以决定如何将这些信号整合，所以两个人可能对同一件事情产生完全不同的认知。\n我们感官就是被进化成要在一起协同工作的模式，这意味着同时激发各个感官可能让我们学得更好。\n嗅觉直通车\n气味具有唤回记忆的不寻常的力量，也许是因为嗅觉信号会绕过丘脑直奔自己目的地的缘故，这些目的地中，就包括那个被称为杏仁核的情绪主管者。\n视觉是最有力的感官\n视觉胜利\n在我们的进化历程中，充盈着文字的广告牌以及Word从来就没占过主导地位，占主导地位的是树木和猛兽。视觉对我们如此重要，我们的祖先通过视觉发现威胁所在，找到大部分的粮食供应，发现生殖机会。\n我们的嗅觉和色觉为了争夺进化控制权进行了激烈的战斗，约60%与嗅觉有关的基因在这次神经战争中被永久地损伤了，在我们大脑拥挤的零和世界中，有些东西必须放弃。\n视觉是目前我们最重要的感觉器官，占去大脑一半的资源。我们所看到的，仅是大脑告诉我们应该看到的，并不是百分百准确。\n我们并非在用眼睛看，而是在用大脑看\n大脑篡改了来自两只眼睛的信息，它进行了亿万次的计算，然后为你提供一个它认为最好的猜测。我们生活在一个三维的世界，但是光线以二维的形式投射在我们的视网膜上。要准确地描绘世界，大脑必须对这个差别进行处理。我们两只眼睛分别给了大脑两个视野，他们将图像颠倒着，反着投射给大脑。大脑被迫进行猜测。\n\n出现在左眼视网膜上的图像和出现在右眼视网膜上的图像是不同的，两只眼睛协同工作才能设法向大脑提供足够的信息，确保大脑看到一个非跳跃的现实画面（单眼分别开闭看到的图像位置是不完全相同 ）。\n\n大脑根据什么做出或部分做出这些猜测呢？根据你对过去某一件事的经验，大脑在收到的信息中坚决地插入许多假设后，将它的发现交给你细读。\n\n有时候接受截肢手术的人感觉得到他们的肢体仍然存在，即使他们看不见，有时患者感到被截去的肢体被冻结在一个固定位置，有时他们还会感觉到幻肢的疼痛。\n\n文字的图像化\n我们阅读的时候，都会尝试在心里将文字传达给我们的内容进行想象。文字只是邮票，它将包裹送来等我们打开。\n大脑的性别差异\nX染色体与大脑很有关\n居住在X染色体的1500个基因，许多基因与我们的大脑功能有关，从语言能力，社会行动到某些类型的智能，研究人员称 X染色体为认知“热点”。\n女性在说话和处理语言信息时往往同时使用大脑的两个半球，而男性主要使用一个半球。女性大脑左右半球之间有厚厚的神经纤维联系，而男性的联系则较稀薄，这就好像女性还有一个备份系统，而男性没有。\n成年时已发展成型的谈话风格直接源于我们在儿童时代就已固化的同性之间的影响。\nX染色体双份镶嵌\n男性只有一个x染色体，所以他们需要获得x染色体上每一个基因，女性却有双倍的数额，然而多并不一定就意味着好，你需要一杯面粉时你加了两杯，事情可能会像一个不愉快的方向发生变化。\n如何处理这多出一份的x染色体呢？研究人员发现不存在优先选择的情况，完全是一个随机事件，有些细胞选择妈妈提供的x染色体上，他们相邻的细胞又选择爸爸提供的x染色体上。这意味着女性胚胎中的细胞是一副复杂的活性与非活性的妈妈爸爸X基因镶嵌画。X染色体失活不会出现在男性中间，因为必须从妈妈那里获得X染色体。\n从X染色体角度说，所有男人都是妈妈的乖乖男，女孩的情况完全不同，她们的基因更复杂。\n火星与金星\n女女\n艾米丽，你渴吗？对这种语言协商，艾米丽知道她的朋友想要什么？\n她答到：不知道，你渴了？\n随后两人进行了一次小讨论，看彼此是不是都口渴极了，需要停车去买些水。\n男女\n几天后，这名女性和丈夫一起驾车出去，问丈夫：你渴吗？\n他答道：不，我不渴。\n新娘很生气，因为她想停车去喝些水。丈夫也很生气，因为她没开门见山直接说出她的想法。\n生化解释\n男女大脑在结构上和生化上都是不同的，男性的杏仁核大，合成五羟（qiǎng）色胺–别名血清素的速度快，但我们不知道，这些差别是否具有重要意义。\n对急性应激，男性和女性的反应不同：女性激活左半球的杏仁核，并记住情绪的细节；男性激活右半球的杏仁核，并记住要旨。\n我们是天生的探险家\n动物自带镜像神经元\n婴儿是指导我们如何学习的榜样，他们不是被动地对环境做出反应，相反他们通过积极的观察，假设，实验和总结对周围世界进行探索。因为“镜像神经元”的天然存在，我们在婴儿时期就可识别和模仿某些行为，这也是我们动物学习能力的一些来源。人类的镜像神经元分布在大脑的各个地方。\n儿童曾是榜样\n作者记下过他的一段触动，他曾试图让二岁的儿子跟上他行进轨迹，快点走，像大多数有些时间表的成年人那样举止行事，但二岁的儿子根本不理会，在去幼儿园路上看路上的鹅卵石，看野草，看蚂蚁组队抬食物前行，看泥球，看一颗生锈的螺丝钉，几个闪亮的油迹斑点。没有选择作者只好停下来，看着他的小老师，突然作者很好奇被一个念头击中，不知道其上次用了15分钟只走20几步远是什么时候的事情了。\n好奇心\n就像上面的例子一样，好奇心本身才是最重要的。儿童求知的渴望是一个纯粹的驱力，它像钻石一样清澈，纯洁，且像巧克力一样吸引人。如果儿童能一直保持好奇心，他们将会继续利用其自然天性去发现，去探索。\n婴儿会被物体的物理特性所迷倒，小于1岁的婴儿用他所有的感官武器系统地分析每一个物体，用手摸它，用脚踢它，试图把它撕开，贴在耳朵上，塞进嘴巴里，把它交给你，一心一意地收集着物体的信息。婴儿的惊人认知能力以及从语言习得到需要大量主动玩耍的时间，无需揠苗助长。\n对于小孩子来说，发现给他们带来喜悦。像令人上瘾的药物，探索让他们产生进行更多探索的需求，感受更多的快乐。孩子会将这种探索的渴求一直延续到学校。随着儿童渐渐长大，他们发现，学习不仅给他们带来快乐，且还给他们带来对世界的掌控。\n好奇心的拦路虎\n当然这种积极向上的进程也有可能被打破，使这个探索过程和儿童自己变得麻木。如从一年级开始，孩子们就知道，教育就意味着得高分。他们开始明白，获取知识，不是因为知识很有趣，而是因为它可以让他们得到某些东西。\n知识的魅力与“为了取得高分，我应该知道些什么”相比，倒成了次要的。这虽是一个很糟的事情，或许大范围发生。但好奇的本能是如此强大，总会有些人（少量精英）能克服社会不良信息，理智地一步一步探索下去。\n插播一段非本书的内容\n\n面对知识时保持自由，获取知识时保持纪律\n\n自由和纪律是教育的两个要素。自由和纪律这两个原则并不对立，在儿童的生活中应该调节自由与纪律以适应儿童个性的自然发展。大脑也不是自由到底，需被塞满各种陌生思想。用有序的方式掌握的知识，对正在发育的大脑是天然的养料[3]。\n成人也在探险进步\n随着年龄的增长，我们确实失去了某些突触连接（有学者估计，单神经元损失一项每天就接近3w个），但成人大脑中某些与学习有关的区域，还在继续产生着新的神经元，表现出和新生儿神经元一样的可塑性。成人的大脑在其一生中都保持着改变其结构，并应对经验而运转的能力。\n后记\n中文翻译不太好，或者不太走心，很多生硬口语不通的表达。\n书从京东买的二手的，好像之前都转过两手，夹了两个不同地方的人员名片，好在没人划线过。在Meland陪娃的时候花了一天看完，7.23日录完草稿，8.1日重整完毕。\n大脑的特征\n能耗\n作为人体的耗能大户，供能机制跟不上，导致\n\n注意力难以长时间保持，需要安排情绪唤起\n大脑喜欢层次结构，简化抽取关键信息，而不是善于长时间处理细节\n\n现在普遍承认的是，人脑遵循的模式就是简化抽取关键信息，然后对比历史信息相似性给予分类标签，使得我们记忆扩展到联想，判断速度非常快，在进化中得以幸存。人脑的配置像：量子CPU+超级显卡+小号运存+超级内存的组合\n\n智慧增长，知识就会消减，因为细节会被原则包容。---- 阿弗烈·诺夫·怀特海\n\n记忆\n\n信息在人脑皮层分布式存储，跟录像机是不同的机制\n记忆的硬化可能需要10年时间，在硬化之前需要海马体的辅助\n记忆在不断的改写过程中\n\n多模态\n进化过程中神经系统在资源争抢，人类是明显的视觉突出，占大脑50%的信息感受资源\n\n猫听觉灵敏+大近视眼，动态视力强，秒处理图像帧数很高，色彩能力弱\n狗嗅觉突出+听觉+色彩能力弱，静态视力也不如人类，动力视力好过人类\n\n与大模型的差异\n\n\n人脑含有总数在1011（千亿） 个神经元，1014（百万亿）突触链接 [1]\n\n\nGPT3.5是175B参数；GPT4多模态参数，资料显示达到1800B（1.8万亿），说是由8个220B参数的专家模型构成\n\n\n大模型规模还未达到临界点，突破看上去是迟早的事，起码技术大佬们是这么看\n人脑和模型的能效对比\n运行成本\n\nAlphaGo早期的版本是耗能很高的，1202个CPU、176个GPU和100多名科学家，另一边是一个人脑和一杯咖啡。就拿CPU 150W、GPU 300W来算的话，芯片功率是$1202150+176300=233100W$（233千瓦），这还不包括空调费，网络等费用。\n一个人每天消耗2000大卡热量，而大脑占用了其中的20%左右，对于围棋这种极耗脑力的运动，我们尽可能地提升一些，按25%算吧，旗手的功率大概25w。只对比运算中枢的话， AlphaGo差不多是李世石的一万倍功率，但时隔一年，硬件设施已极大不同，与柯洁对弈的AlphaGo已经在Google定制4块TPU上运行起来，功耗下降了1千倍，共160w，基本已经和人类同一数量级，进步的令人咋舌。\n训练成本\n\n\nAlphaGo2.0抛弃人类棋谱，自我对弈3000小时，大概花销1642万人民币\n\nAlphaGo每下一盘棋，大概 4 小时，消耗 3000 美元，每小时 750 美元。$30007507.3$=1642万人民币\n\n\n\n柯洁从出生到成才差不多到20年，消耗的能量和训练费用应该不到1642万人民币，所以还是AlphaGo训练消耗高\n\n\n长期来看，人类棋手的成本更高\n从出生起到退役的年龄，人类的大脑总共消耗的能量是持续的，少量的，最大的成本，还是来自于对一个专业棋手的培育，包含训练、陪练、参赛等费用（吃的食物， 他取暖烧掉的碳，避暑用过的空调，消费的商品的生产）都是成本。\n长远看是一个人的消耗高，算法可以复制人却不能，这就是人工智能的优势\n生而为人\n**独立思想的人格最为可贵！**我们要的不是「听话vs叛逆」的二极管思维。如果大家都没有独立思维的能力，那么我们今天被 AI，硅基生命替代又有什么关系呢。同时让人类去思考恰恰是一件难事，因为思考本身会去摧毁你过去的一些神经元链接，是一个拓扑结构的（微）重建过程，在消耗能量的过程中你会头疼（缺氧），生而为人最宝贵的就是大脑不被束缚，大脑是自由的。\n参考\n1.中科院神经科学研究所， 感觉整合与行为研究组 ↩2.知乎，AlphaGo 和人类棋手比起来谁消耗的资源更多? ↩3.新浪， 面对知识时保持自由，获取知识时保持纪律 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"让子弹飞","url":"/%E8%AE%A9%E5%AD%90%E5%BC%B9%E9%A3%9E.html","content":"\n整部电影暗线是20世纪的斗争史，现在大家都清楚知道。《让子弹飞》之后，姜文的其他作品都难以达到与《让子弹飞》并肩的高度，相信对于一个导演来说是痛苦的。\n主线人物\n汤师爷是一群人，六子是千千万万的年轻人，黄老爷代表的也是一个群体。\n只有张麻子对应一个人，一生致力于建成一个社会公平人人平等的新世界，一个晚年落寞时孤独的理想主义者。消灭一切压迫人剥削人的制度，改变历史周期律，远大的抱负注定获得不了多数人的理解。誓与私利和特权做斗争，只成门户私计，贫富分化是他最不愿意看到又是能想象到的情况。但他身体老了，已无力做更多了。在他之后，伟大谁来继承，情怀拿什么承载。他预见了未来，想要提前改变阻止，可阻力太大，战友就像张麻子的那些兄弟。\n他跟 FDR 一样，像是已一己之力改变历史走向的车夫，不过很可惜历史的铁轨早已铺设完善，他们的努力也仅是让轨道发生一点扭曲罢了。已有之事必再有，已行之事后必再行，一定还会有跟他们一样的人去尝试寻找通向更远方的路。\n\n\n给我在一起不高兴吗，高兴，就是有点不轻松。兄弟们不想在过回苦日子了，成功了就想跟张牧之分道扬镳，50年代的那帮战友们是不是也感同身受。上海不香吗，干嘛当麻匪？黄四郎在，我们一起干，兄弟们付出了惨痛代价，黄四郎没了呢，就是坐江山分江山。张牧之是理想主义者，他的价值观是大同，这也导致他最后成了孤家寡人；他的兄弟们是现实主义者，他们的价值观是钱和权。\n群众\n\n张麻子说得对，谁赢了他们帮谁，大部分人就是盲流，也不在乎逻辑，不在乎数据，也看不见未来，只在乎凑热闹和捡便宜，连上衣都不配穿的底层劳苦大众在分享胜利果实，但往往他们又捡不到便宜。\n结局\n\n腐朽的马拉列车拉着老三他们向右转了方向，上海，大乐园，好地方。老三们成了新的黄四郎。Over。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["影视"]},{"title":"诗文鉴赏","url":"/%E8%AF%97%E6%96%87%E9%89%B4%E8%B5%8F.html","content":"\n记下这些诗句，部分是源于情操优美，大部分是旁注的细节打动了自己，原来学的时候只是诵读，并不关心一些细节，当看到书里的仔细旁注时，忍不住想记下来给自己增添点营养，孩子在学习古诗文时也多一些趣味 。\n很多诗篇凝练了非常多的典故，因为信息量太大，要记录的太多就跳过了，感叹古人的记忆力，学成名家背后的心血非同寻常，成功多不是偶然的。\n民本篇\n《山坡羊·潼关怀古》-元·张养浩\n峰峦如聚，波涛如怒，山河表里潼关路。望西都，意踟蹰。伤心秦汉经行处，宫阙万间都做了土。兴，百姓苦；亡，百姓苦！\n《观祈雨》-唐·李约\n桑条无叶土生烟，箫管迎龙水庙前。朱门几处看歌舞，犹恐春阴咽管弦。\n修身篇\n《国语引古谚语节选》-先秦·无名氏\n从善如登，从恶如崩\n\n《题竹石画》-清·郑板桥\n咬定青山不放松，立根原在破岩中。千磨万击还坚劲，任尔东西南北风。\n用人篇\n已亥杂诗四首-清·龚自珍\n浩荡离愁白日斜，吟鞭东指即天涯。落红不是无情物，化作春泥更护花。\n九州生气恃（shì）风雷，万马齐喑究可哀。我劝天公重抖擞，不拘一格降人才。\n创新篇\n《小雅·鹤鸣》-先秦·无名氏\n\n《诗经》中“雅”部分，分为大雅、小雅，合称“二雅”。雅，雅乐，即正调，指当时西周都城镐京地区的诗歌乐调。小雅部分今存七十四篇\n\n鹤鸣于九皋（gāo），声闻于野。鱼潜在渊，或在于渚（zhǔ)。乐彼之园，爰（yuán）有树檀，其下维萚（tuò）。他山之石，可以为错。\n鹤鸣于九皋（gāo），声闻于天。鱼在于渚，或潜在渊。乐彼之园，爰（yuán）有树檀，其下维榖（gǔ）。他山之石，可以攻玉。\n\n九皋：深泽。渚：水边。爰：于此。萚：酸枣树。错：磨刀石。榖：构树，树皮可造纸。攻：雕琢。\n这是一篇呼唤周宣王招募重视民间人才的诗篇。檀树下又有小酸枣树和构树，郁郁葱葱，层次分明。他山之石可以攻玉，原比喻别国的贤才可为本国效力，后比喻能帮助自己改正缺点的人或意见。\n\n《论诗五绝》-清·赵翼\n李杜诗篇万口传，至今已觉不新鲜。\n江山代有才人出，各领风骚数百年。\n劝学篇\n《冬夜读书示意子聿（yù）》-宋·陆游\n古人学问无遗力，少壮工夫老始成。纸上来得终觉浅，绝知此事要躬行。\n\n子聿（yù）: 陆游的小儿子\n\n《观书有感二首》-宋·朱熹\n半亩方塘一鉴开，天光云影共徘徊。问渠那得清如许，为有源头活水来。\n昨夜江边春水生，艨艟（méng chōng）巨舰一毛轻。向来枉费推移力，此日中流自在行。\n\n艨艟：牛皮包裹可防火，开弩窗矛穴，以浆为动力\n向来：从前过去；中流：江河中央。\n第一首揭示知识不断更新和发展，才能永葆活力。第二首揭示事物发展需要条件和时机，顺势发展，才能收到明显的效果\n\n《老黄牛》-近代·臧克家\n块块荒田水和泥，深耕细作走东西。老牛亦解韶光贵，不待扬鞭自奋蹄。\n\n诗歌学会会长，毛泽东诗词研究会名誉会长。\n70年代，作者和作协的同事一起到湖北咸阳向阳湖干校劳动，72年因心脏病获准提前返京，用四个多月时间写出《向阳湖》，《离别干校》，《老黄牛》等五十七首诗篇，暗合五七干校，总名《忆向阳》，赞美干校劳动生活，表示，人回到北京，心还在咸宁，身离心不离，生死不相忘。\n\n明志篇\n《咏寒松》-南北朝·范云\n修调拂层汉，密叶帐天浔。凌风知劲节，负霜见直心。\n\n修：长。层汉：高空。天浔：天河。\n唐朝李世民曾在《赠萧瑀（yǔ）》一诗中化用为：疾风知劲草，板荡识诚臣。\n\n《一枝花·不服老》-元·关汉卿\n我是个蒸不烂，煮不熟，捶不扁，炒不爆，响当当一粒铜豌豆。恁子弟每谁教你钻入他锄不断、斫（zhuó）不下、解不开、顿不脱、慢腾腾千层锦套头？我玩的是梁园月，饮的是东京酒，赏的是洛阳花，攀的是章台柳。我也会围棋、会蹴鞠（cù jū）、会打围、会插科、会歌舞、会吹弹、会咽作、会吟诗、会双陆。你便是落了我牙、歪了我嘴、瘸了我腿、折了我手，天赐与我这几般儿歹症候，尚兀自不肯休！则除是阎王亲自唤，神鬼自来勾。三魂归地府，七魄丧冥幽。天哪！那其间才不向烟花路儿上走。\n\n子弟每：子弟们。斫：砍。顿不脱：挣不脱。锦套头：美丽的圈套，比喻妓女迷惑嫖客的手段。\n梁园：梁苑，西汉梁孝王的东苑。东京：汴州。章台柳：唐-韩翃（gōng）姬妾柳氏，以艳丽称。安史乱起，被番将沙咤（zhà）利所劫，韩寄柳诗曰：章台柳，章台柳，昔日青春今在否？纵使长条似旧垂，亦应攀折他人手。后柳氏被唐将用计夺还归韩。后以“章台柳”形容窈窕美丽的女子。\n打围：打猎，因需多人合围。插科：逗笑。咽作：歌唱。歹症候：坏毛病。兀自：犹自。烟花：犹“风月”，指情爱。\n双陆：古代一种博戏，双方各执棋马十五枚在十二道的棋盘上投骰（tóu）行马。因横道左右各六，两两相对，故名双陆。\n关汉卿带有自述心志性质的套曲，此段是尾声。表达了大无畏的叛逆精神，很有点老愤青的味道，风流狂诞之间，显示出生命勃发的血性和活力。\n\n《咏梅九首之一》-明·高启\n琼姿只合在瑶台，谁向江南处处栽？雪满山中高士卧，月明林下美人来。\n寒依疏影萧萧竹，春掩残香漠漠苔。自去何郎无好咏，东风愁寂几回开。\n\n只合：只应。漠漠：密布貌。何郎：南朝诗人何逊，青年时即以文学著称，为当时名流所称道。\n诗人的这组梅花诗共九首，这是首部第一首。毛泽东很喜欢高启的梅花诗，曾为查找这首诗的全文，一天给秘书连写三封信，当时他只记得“雪满山中高士卧，月明林下美人来”这两句，后来又想起前两句。找到后毛用草体书写了全诗，并在右起处大大写上了“高启”二字，还注明：“字季迪，明朝最伟大的诗人”\n高启，明洪武初参修《元史》，后回乡隐居。苏州知府修复府治旧基，高为其写了一篇《郡治上梁文》，文中有虎踞龙蟠四字，加上府治旧基为元末张士诚旧址，被疑为歌颂张士诚，也受株连，腰斩而亡。\n\n《述志》-清·洪秀全\n手握乾坤杀伐权，斩邪留正解民悬。\n眼通西北江山外，声振东南日月边。\n展爪似嫌云路小，腾身何怕汉程偏。\n风雷鼓舞三千浪，易象飞龙定在天。\n\n西北：苏轼《江城子-密州出猎》会挽雕弓如满月，西北望，射天狼。东南：泛指太平天国控制的区域。日月边：日月是自称，指天国周围。汉程：汉即银河，银河的航程。易象：易经中的卦象。飞龙在天：九五，飞龙在天，利见大人。九五之爻（yáo）在上乾卦中居于中的位置，称“得中”，才能够总卦来看，处于奇数的位置，阳爻处于奇位称“得正”，故九五爻既得中有得正，大吉大贵，暗示事物处于最鼎盛时期。如果用于开创王业则指能称帝王，所以皇帝有“九五之尊”之称。\n虽然是个失败的农民运动结局，但此诗畅述洪的政治抱负，气魄很大。尤其是第三句展爪腾身，的确一时很狂。\n\n《狱中赠邹容》-近现代·章炳麟\n邹容吾小弟，被发下瀛州。快剪刀除辫，干牛肉作糇（hóu）。\n英雄一入狱，天地亦悲秋。临命须掺手，乾坤只两头。\n\n章炳麟比邹容大18岁，故称小弟。两人一起1903年因“苏报案”（苏报发表《驳康有为论革命书》，《革命军序》）被捕入狱，但邹容于1905年病死狱中，而不是被杀，这纠正了我一贯的错觉，觉得那段历史宣扬的英雄都是被反动派杀害的。\n被发：披发，说尚未束发成年，形容邹容年轻。瀛洲：日本。糇：干粮，在地方用语中也形容吃过咸的食物之后引起的干渴和声音嘶哑。掺手：执手牵手。\n《革命军》一书由章炳麟作序，一起被捕，作者以为这次怕不能活着出去了，所以写了这首诗，最后一句夸张地说：我们这两颗头颅里思想不朽，将充满两个世界。邹容也留下一首和诗《狱中答西狩》，写的也不错，“西狩”是章的笔名。\n\n《自嘲》-鲁迅\n运交华盖欲何求，未敢翻身已碰头。破帽遮颜过闹市，漏船载酒泛中流。\n横眉冷对千夫指，俯首甘为孺子牛。躲进小楼成一统，管他冬夏与春秋。\n\n华盖：古星名，属紫微垣（yuán），共16星，在五帝星座上，今属仙后座。旧时间迷信，以为人的命运中犯了华盖星，运气就不好。\n孺子牛：齐景公曾口衔绳索扮成牛，让儿子牵着玩。一统：统一，戏言全国统一。\n1932年，郁达夫请自己哥哥吃饭，并请鲁迅和柳亚子作陪。柳亚子见面向鲁迅索字，鲁迅随后写了这首诗给他，用冷幽默的手法对自己面临的压力进行了嘲讽，对宵小的蔑视，旷逸高远的文人情怀。\n\n《诉衷情·江山靠谁守》- “毛泽东”\n当年忠贞为国愁，何曾怕断头？如今天下红遍，江山靠谁守？业未就，身躯倦，鬓已秋，你我之辈，忍将夙愿，付与东流！\n\n根据毛身边人员的评说，此作没有人证「手稿」物证证据，均不存在，实为伪托而作，74~75毛仍思想清晰，但语言表达有恙，很多时候都是靠书写文字传递信息。此作起初就是以传抄的方式在民间先传播，思想格调和平仄押韵硬伤都不符合毛的风格和水平。\n诉衷情 为词牌名，陆游也有一首名篇，诉衷情·当年万里觅封侯\n\n清廉篇\n《卜算子·咏梅》-宋·陆游\n驿外断桥边，寂寞无开主。已是黄昏独自愁，更著风和雨。\n无意苦争春，一任群芳妒。零落成泥碾作尘，只有香如故。\n\n著：&quot;着&quot;的本字，糟逢的意思。作者用梅花比喻自己高阶脱俗的美好情操。1961年毛泽东读陆游这篇词，曾反其意而作：风雨送春归，飞雪迎春到。已是悬崖百丈冰，犹有花枝俏。俏也不争春，只把春来报。待到山花烂漫时，她在丛中笑。\n\n齐家篇\n《郑风·女曰鸡鸣》-先秦·无名氏\n女曰：“鸡鸣”，士曰：“昧旦。子兴视夜，明星有烂。””将翱将翔，弋凫与雁。”\n”弋言加之，与子宜之。宜言饮酒，与子偕老。”琴瑟在御，莫不静好。\n“知子之来之，杂佩以赠之。知子之顺之，杂佩以问之。知子之好之，杂佩以报之。”\n\n昧旦：又叫昧爽，破晓之际。烂：灿烂。翱，翔同义。戈：用带绳子的箭射。言：助词，无实意。加：射中。宜：烹饪，烹调。御：用，这里指弹奏。来：音“劳“，关怀体贴。杂佩：连缀在一起的各种佩玉。顺：和顺。问：赠送。\n整首诗以对话的形式（开始催男子起床劳作，之后是女子慰劳爱人的情景），展现了二人的家庭分工和性格特点。除夫妻对话，还有诗人旁白，整首诗就像一幕短剧，生动逼真，情趣盎然。\n与子偕老也出现在诗经中另一首《击鼓》中，”死生相阔，与子成说，执子之手，与子偕老“，这里是战士之间的情谊，女曰鸡鸣中的与子偕老，才真正是对爱情的誓言和美好期许，只是语言的壮阔优美不及击鼓而已。这也是为什么此处记录此首诗的出发点。\n\n《赴戍登程口示家人》-清·林则徐\n力微任重久神疲，再竭衰庸定不支。\n苟利国家生死以，岂因祸福避趋之。\n谪（zhé）居正是君恩厚，养拙刚于戍卒宜。\n戏与山妻谈故事，试吟断送老头皮。\n\n1942年，林从西安启程赴伊犁，写诗留别家人，宽慰家人不要为自己担心。\n哀庸：近哀朽，衰老无能。苟利国家：《左传·昭公四年》春秋时郑国大夫子产改革军赋，受到时人诽谤，子产说，何害，苟利社稷，死生以之。\n谪居：古代官吏贬官降职到边远外地居住。养拙：才能低下而闲居度日。戍卒：戍守边疆的士兵。山妻：隐士之妻，这里指自己的妻子。\n老头皮：为年老男子的戏称。宋真宗闻隐者杨朴能诗，召对，问：此来有人作诗送卿否？对曰：臣妻有一首云：更休落魄耽杯酒，切莫猖狂爱咏诗。近日捉将官里去，这回断送老头皮。上大笑，放还山。东坡赴诏狱，妻子送出门，皆哭，坡顾谓曰：子独不能如杨处士妻作一首诗送我乎？妻子失笑，坡乃去。\n\n爱情篇\n《古怨歌》-汉·窦玄妻\n茕（qióng）茕白兔，东走西顾。\n衣不如新，人不如故。\n\n窦玄相貌不凡，天子命他与原配妻子分手，将公主嫁给他。窦妻写诗一首给丈夫。茕茕：孤独的样子。顾：回头。后两句表白心迹，劝告人们珍惜旧情，句短情长，动人心弦。\n\n《李延年歌》-汉·李延年\n北方有佳人，绝世而独立。一顾倾人城，再顾倾人国。\n宁不知倾城与倾国？佳人难再得！\n\n李延年，武帝时音乐家，善歌习舞，长于音乐创作。作者未用华丽辞藻修饰，精短简洁，留给人无限的遐想空间，却将女子容貌之美夸耀到了极致\n\n《离思》-唐·元稹(zhěn)\n曾经沧海难为水，除却巫山不是云。取次花丛懒回顾，半缘修道半缘君。\n\n元稹:与白居易同科及第，早年和白同提倡新乐府。\n曾经：曾经经历过。沧海：大海。难为：不会看在眼里。除却：除了。\n巫山：因战国宋玉《高唐赋》序的典故，巫山被用为男女幽会的典实。\n取次：经过。缘：因为。\n诗人用典故和比喻，把对亡妻的思念表达得深切婉转，缠绵绮丽。第一句化用孟子的”观于海者难为水“，第二句化用宋玉的”巫山之阳，高山之阻，旦为朝云，暮为行雨“。经历过大海，对溪流就不会看在眼里。除了巫山上那朵最美的云彩，别对云彩都不是我的所爱。\n\n《一剪梅·舟过吴江》-宋·蒋捷\n一片春愁待酒浇。江上舟摇，楼上帘招。秋娘渡与泰娘桥，风又飘飘，雨又萧萧。\n何日归家洗客袍？银字笙调，心字香烧。流光容易把人抛，红了樱桃，绿了芭蕉。\n\n作者生卒年不详，宋灭后隐居太湖里的竹山。吴江就是苏州市吴江区。帘：酒帘，酒家的标志。秋娘渡，泰娘桥：吴江沿途地名。\n银字笙：乐器名。调：调奏。心字香：心字型的熏香。\n上阙漂泊孤独，下阙团聚温馨。流光容易把人抛用拟人的手法，显得生动形象。红绿两个字从形容词变成动词用，将看不见的时光变为看得见的的突出意向\n\n报国篇\n《贺新郎·送胡邦衡待制赴新州》-宋·张元干\n梦绕神州路。怅秋风、连营画角，故宫离黍。底事昆仑倾砥柱。九地黄流乱注。聚万落、千村狐兔。天意从来高难问，况人情、老易悲如许。更南浦，送君去。\n凉生岸柳催残暑。耿斜河、疏星淡月，断云微度。万里江山知何处。回首对床夜语。雁不到、书成谁与。目尽青天怀今古，肯儿曹、恩怨相尔汝。举大白，听金缕（lǚ）。\n\n胡邦衡：胡栓，因上书请斩秦桧遭到报复，被贬新州（今广东新兴）。离黍：为感叹亡国之典。《诗·王风·黍离序》：周大夫行役于宗周，过故宗庙宫室，尽为禾黍，闵周室之倾覆，彷徨不忍去，而作诗也。昆仑倾砥柱：这里把昆仑天柱和黄河砥柱合在一起来说。九地黄流乱注：比喻金兵的猖狂进攻。聚万落，千村狐兔：描写中原经金兵铁蹄践踏后的荒凉景象。天意：帝王的心意。老易：老子与周易的并称。如许：像这样。南浦：南面的水边，后常称送别之地。\n耿：明亮。断云：片云。儿曹：犹儿辈。恩怨相尔汝：彼此亲昵的称呼，表示不拘形迹，紧密无间，出自唐韩愈的《听颖师弹琴》。大白：酒杯名。金缕：金缕曲词牌的简称，也即贺新郎。\n本词深受毛委员的喜爱，词表达了对友人的深切关心和强烈深沉的爱国情感。当董必武同志去世后，毛说原诗结尾太伤感，遂将最后两句改为”君且去，休回顾“录制而听。\n\n梅岭三章-陈毅\n断头今日意如何？创业艰难百战多。此去泉台招旧部，旌旗十万斩阎罗。\n南国烽烟正十年，此头须向国门悬。后死诸君多努力，捷报飞来当纸钱。\n投身革命即为家，血雨腥风应有涯。取义成仁今日事，人间遍种自由花。\n\n陈毅，1919赴法勤工俭学，1922年回国。历任红四军政治部主任，军委书记，红22军军长，长征后，留在江西苏区，领导三年南方游击战争。抗日时期，任新四军代军长，军长。解放战争时期，任三野司令员兼政治委员。49年后任华东军区司令员兼上海市长，国务院副总理兼外交部部长等。\n梅岭：即大庾（yǔ）岭（五岭之一）。泉台：地狱。国门：即城门，借伍子胥”扶吾眼县吴东门之上，以观越寇之入灭吴也“的典故，表示自己即使牺牲，也要头悬国门眼看敌人最后灭亡；也引自汪精卫的《狱中杂感》这首诗的最后一句，可叹年轻的汪行刺清摄政王入狱，后来却思想变化堕为汉奸。\n36年冬天，陈毅的游击队被蒋嫡系部队46师戴嗣夏部围困在驻地梅岭，戴有”碉堡专家“的称号，他让碉堡上山口，进山坑，进逼陈毅部队的根据地。白天警犬追踪，夜里探照灯搜索。陈毅因腿伤又加患病，行动不便，被困20多天，在苦虑不得脱身的情况下，写下了这三篇留衣底作为绝命诗。而就在他写下这三首诗的当天，46师罕见地停止了搜剿行动（因为发生了西安事变，戴急急撤走），梅岭之围旋解，此真乃命也。\n\n交游篇\n重赠卢谌（shèn）（节选）-西晋·刘琨\n功业未及建，夕阳忽西流。时哉不我与，去乎若云浮。朱实陨劲风，繁英落素秋。\n狭路倾华盖，骇（hài）驷（sì）摧双辀（zhōu）。何意百炼钢，化为绕指柔。\n\n刘琨：青年时曾与好友一起练武，留下了”闻鸡起舞“，”枕戈待旦“等典故，曾任并州刺史，后被猜忌而杀。\n西流：比喻时光飞逝。与：等待。若云浮：像浮云一样。朱实：红的果实。繁英：繁花。素秋：霜秋。华盖：华丽的车盖。辀：车辕。何意：谁能想到。绕指柔：缠绕在手指上的柔软物品。\n这是作者临终前写给自己部下和好友卢谌的一首诗，本书节选其中最后几句。诗的前半部分回忆了自己率兵的战斗经历和悲凉心情，叙述了前人受冤蒙困的遭际，最后这部分书法自己一生的感慨，表达了心中的忧愤和无奈。险恶的世道就像狭窄的路，翻了我的车，惊了我的马，折断我的车辕。谁能想到我这铁打的硬汉，如今变成人家指间玩弄的柔丝。\n\n送杜少府之任蜀州-唐·王勃\n城阙辅三秦，风烟望五津。与君离别意，同是宦游人。海内存知己，天涯若比邻。无为在歧路，儿女共沾巾。\n\n王勃由广州渡海赴交趾（今越南）时不禁溺水而逝。杜少府：作者的朋友。少府：就是县尉，处理武事。唐代时候县官称为令，以下有一名丞，处理文事。明府就是对县令的尊称，赞府是对县丞的尊称，少府就是对县尉的尊称。\n城阙：指长安城城楼。辅：拱卫。三秦：关中之地。风烟：风烟迷茫之中。五津：岷江的五个渡口，泛指蜀州。宦游：外出做官。无为：不必。歧路：岔路。儿女：像小女儿一样。沾巾：泪水沾湿衣服。\n古人送行，常常是送到大路的岔口才分手，所以他们有时候把临别成为”临歧“，沾巾就可以用来代替哭泣。此送别诗被评”兴象宛然，气骨苍然“\n\n题李凝幽居-唐·贾岛\n闲居少邻并，草径入荒园。鸟宿池边树，僧敲月下门。过桥分野色，移石动云根。暂去还来此，幽期不负言。\n\n贾岛早年出家为僧，后还俗。他的诗多描写自然风物，注重炼字炼句，是”苦吟派“诗人。李凝：贾岛的朋友。邻并：邻居。分：分享。移石动云根：仿佛山石在移动。幽期：隐逸的期约。负言：违背约定。这首诗描写了探访隐士李凝的过程。\n推敲的典故：贾岛在僧推和僧敲月下门上一时拿不定主义，在驴背上一边走一边想，不小心冲撞了吏部侍郎的韩愈的侍卫队。最后韩愈说：我觉得用敲字好，因为晚上的门一般会门闩栓住，直接推不开，所以用敲字更符合生活常识。另外，敲字是开口音，读起来比较响亮，且敲门声更反衬夜晚的宁静和孤寂。贾岛认为韩愈的意见很对，就欣然采纳了，推敲作为认真修改诗文的代用词流传下来。\n\n和董传留别-宋·苏轼\n麤（cū）缯（zēng）大布裹生涯，腹有诗书气自华。 厌伴老儒烹瓠[hù]叶，强随举子踏槐花。\n囊空不办寻春马，眼乱行看择婿车。 得意犹堪夸世俗，诏黄新湿字如鸦。\n\n这首诗是苏轼罢官凤翔签判赴汴京，途经长安时，与朋友董传话聚临别留赠董传的。\n董传：苏轼在陕西凤翔认识的友人，当时董很贫困。麤：同粗。麤缯大布：粗丝绑发，粗布批身。裹：经历。生涯：人生的境遇过程。诗书：诗经和尚书，泛指学问。气：精神气度。华：丰盈而实美，即不俗。老儒：年长学究。瓠叶：诗经小雅的篇名，开头两句为”幡幡瓠叶，采而亨之“。举子：参加考试的读书人。踏槐花：参加科举考试，唐代有槐花黄，举子忙的俗语，槐花落时就是举子应试的时间。寻春马：引用孟郊的诗，春风得意马蹄疾，一日看尽长安花。择婿车：唐代进士发榜，例于曲江亭设宴，其日，公卿家倾城纵观，高车宝马，于此选取佳婿。这指董传会不屑参加科举。得意：春风得意，即黄榜得中。世俗：适应大众的眼光。诏黄：即诏书。字如鸦：诏书上的黑字像乌鸦一样。\n身上包裹着粗布劣衣，但只要胸中有学问气质自然光彩照人。不喜欢陪着老儒一块清淡，过”烹瓠叶“那样的苦日子，决定随从举子们参加科举考试。口袋里没有钱不能置办那看花的马，但也会看看令人眼花缭乱的择婿车，考试得中仍可以向世俗的人们夸耀一番，诏书上如鸦的黑字写着我的名字。\n这首诗对友人的才华进行了鼓励，认为他胸有诗书，气质不俗，同时劝慰他改变自己的个性去参加科举考试以适应社会习惯，并祝愿他高中实现理想。\n\n哲思篇\n登鹳雀楼-唐·王之涣\n白日依山尽，黄河入海流。欲穷千里目，更上一层楼。\n\n鹳雀楼：旧址在今山西永济市，原有楼三层，经常有鹳雀落在上面，所以得名。楼前望中条山，下临黄河，后被河水冲沫。\n\n感巫州荠菜-唐·高力士\n\n力士谪黔中，道至巫州，地多荠而人不食，因惑之，作诗寄意。\n\n两京作斤卖，五溪无人采。夷夏虽有殊，气味都不改。\n\n这首诗没什么特别，只是作者特别。所以做记录。作者路过湖南怀化，见遍地荠菜而生苍凉感慨，也以荠菜比喻无论环境顺逆不改初心\n高力士：唐著名太监，本名冯元一，唐潘州人（今广东省高州市城区），幼年入宫由高延福收为养子，改名高力士，官至骠骑大将军等。传说曾为李白脱靴。\n两京：长安洛阳。五溪：怀化境内有5条重要支流，古称五溪。采，谐音”睬“，语义双关。夷：指穷乡僻壤。夏：中原繁华之地。\n\n乌衣巷-唐·刘禹锡\n朱雀桥边野草花，乌衣巷口夕阳斜。旧时王谢堂前燕，飞入寻常百姓家。\n\n乌衣巷：在今南京市东南，秦淮河两岸。三国时，吴国曾在这里驻军，士兵都穿黑衣，所以后来地名就叫乌衣巷。东晋时的王导，谢安等大官就住在这里。朱雀桥：秦淮河上一座桥的名字，在乌衣巷附近。\n\n浪淘沙令·伊吕两衰翁-宋·王安石\n伊吕两衰翁，历遍穷通。一为钓叟一耕佣。若使当时身不遇，老了英雄。\n汤武偶相逢，风虎云龙。兴王只在笑谈中。直至如今千载后，谁与争功。\n\n伊吕：指伊尹和吕尚。伊尹是夏朝末年的奴隶，后受到商王成汤的赏识重用，帮成汤攻灭夏朝。吕尚又叫姜尚，俗称姜太公。他起初非常穷困，年老时才被周文王赏识，辅佐武王灭商。穷通：穷愁潦倒，官运亨通。汤武也就是商汤王周武王。\n此咏史词抒发了作者建功立业的信心和怀才不遇的苦闷。也揭示了英雄能不能成就一番事业，除了自己努力之外，还要看机遇和外部环境，表达了对许多优秀人才被埋没的同情和感慨。说人世间如果出现了圣明的君主，谈笑间就能完成兴建国家的大事业。\n\n钓台题璧-郁达夫\n不是樽前爱惜身，佯狂难免假成真。曾因酒醉鞭名马，生怕情多累美人。劫数东南天作孽，鸡鸣风雨海扬尘。悲歌痛苦终何补，义士纷纷说帝秦。\n\n郁达夫浙江富阳人，左翼作家联盟发起人之一，42年化名赵廉避居苏门答腊，45年在苏门答腊失踪。\n钓台：严子陵祠。劫数东南：指日军进攻上海。鸡鸣风雨：用诗经中”风雨如晦，鸡鸣不已“之意。\n海扬尘：用道家神仙麻姑典故，以东海扬尘比喻世事变化巨大，也就是沧海桑田的另一种不流行说法。\n义士：指《战国策》中记载的战国时期齐人鲁仲连义不帝秦事。\n表达是一个特定历史年代里知识分子的心路历程，开始讲自己不喝酒不是害怕伤身体，而是怕平时佯狂娱世的姿态成了真心态，过去曾经走马章台，诗酒风流，今后将要关心国家兴亡，投入反对强秦的队列里去了。诗的原题挺长《旧友二三，相逢海上，席间偶谈时事，嗒然若失，为之衔杯不饮者久之，或问昔年走马章台，痛饮狂歌意气今安在耶，因而有作》，全诗中”曾因酒醉鞭名马，生怕情多累美人“一联最为有名，常用来形容潇洒脱俗的风流之士。\n\n胸襟篇\n将[qiāng]进酒-唐·李白\n君不见黄河之水天上来，奔流到海不复回。君不见高堂明镜悲白发，朝如青丝暮成雪。人生得意须尽欢，莫使金樽空对月。天生我材必有用，千金散尽还复来。\n烹羊宰牛且为乐，会须一饮三百杯。岑夫子，丹丘生，将进酒，杯莫停。与君歌一曲，请君为我倾耳听。钟鼓馔[zhuàn]玉不足贵，但愿长醉不愿醒。\n古来圣贤皆寂寞，惟有饮者留其名。陈王昔时宴平乐，斗酒十千恣[zì]欢谑[xuè]。主人何为言少钱，径须沽取对君酌。五花马、千金裘，呼儿将出换美酒，与尔同销万古愁。\n\n将[qiāng]:愿，请。高唐：华丽的建筑。且为乐：姑且寻欢作乐。会须：应当。岑夫子：岑勋。丹丘生：元丹丘，都是李白的好友。与君：为你们。馔[zhuàn]玉：精美的食物。陈王：指陈思王曹植。平乐：平乐观，宫殿名。在洛阳西门外，为当年显贵的游乐场所。恣：无拘无束。谑：玩笑。沽：买。千金裘：泛指贵重的衣物。将出：拿去。\n这一篇劝酒词，大约作于天宝十一年，作者跟好友岑勋多次到嵩山元丹丘处聚饮，把饮酒过程和心态描写的神采飞扬，激情洋溢，豪迈的笑声背后是不被重用的孤独和寂寞。\n\n狱中题壁-清·谭嗣同\n望门投止思张俭，忍死须臾待杜根。我自横刀向天笑，去留肝胆两昆仑。\n\n张俭：东汉人，被诬逃亡时躲避到亲友家中，结果连累多人。投止：止步。杜根：东汉人，曾上书要求邓太后归权安帝，太后命人将他装袋摔死，执法者将他放走，太后死后，杜根又重获官职。横刀：刀架脖颈。留：指像杜根那样得到帮助活下来。诗人也有一份生的渴望，希望有人能像救杜根一样在最后关头帮助自己。\n\n沁园春·雪-毛泽东\n\n除了最后的岁月《诉衷情-江山靠谁守》里「业未就，身躯倦，鬓已秋」，毛的诗词里看不到一个&quot;愁&quot;字，全是改天换地，战胜一切。梅花欢喜漫天雪，冻死苍蝇未足奇\n\n北国风光，千里冰封，万里雪飘。望长城内外，惟余莽莽；大河上下，顿失滔滔。山舞银蛇，原驰蜡象，欲与天公试比高。须晴日，看红装素裹，分外妖娆。江山如此多娇，引无数英雄竞折腰。惜秦皇汉武，略输文采；唐宗宋祖，稍逊风骚。一代天骄，成吉思汗，只识弯弓射大雕。俱往矣，数风流人物，还看今朝。\n\n惟余莽莽：只剩下无边无际的白色。大河上下：指黄河上下游。银蛇：比喻披着白雪的树木被风摇动的样子。原：指黄土高原。蜡象：白蜡做成的象。红妆素裹：旭日照在雪地上的景致。妖娆：这里指美好。多娇：美不胜收。折腰：膜拜，倾倒。文采风骚：这里都指文化底蕴。天子骄子：汉朝人称匈奴单于为“天之骄子”，后来称被北方某些少数民族君主为天骄。往矣：过去了。\n词写于1936年2月，借雪景抒情，表现了目空万古的豪放气概。上阙辞采斑斓，下阙怀古激昂奔放。45年8月抗战胜利后，重庆谈判期间柳亚子敬赠毛泽东七律一首，同时向他索句。毛便把9年前的这首词赠给柳亚子，并致信云：初到陕北看见大雪时，填过一首词，似与先生诗格略近，录呈审正。柳亚子得到词后称赞道：展读之余，以为中国有词以来第一作手，虽苏辛未能抗（相比），况余子乎？不久他就作了一首《次韵毛润之初行陕北看大雪之作》的和词，并把这首和词和毛词一并交给《新华日报》，要求同时发表。《新华日报》因未得到毛本人意见的缘故，不便同时发表，只好发表了柳亚子的和词。而这首《沁园春·雪》却因在报社内部披露，并被传抄除去。柳的和词一发表，立即引起社会的广泛关注，人们很想拜读毛的原作。当时重庆民营报纸《新民报晚刊》副编辑吴祖光最后把三个抄本凑合起来，终于得到一份完整的词，在11月14日该报副刊《西方夜谈》的显著位置隆重推出，立即轰动山城，传颂一时。\n有人说这词在引经据典和文学造诣上不如两宋豪放派，但两宋诗词再豪放再浪漫，都是夸张和想象，靠做梦，且结尾大部分是泄气的，即使是念奴娇赤壁怀古，最后几句也是早生华发，落脚点也是人生如梦，一尊还酹江月。外表的豪放和内里的软弱形成反差，但教员是不会给你泄气的，俱往矣，数风流人物，还看今朝。永远在晦暗无光的世界里给你点燃希望的火种。国家博物馆将沁园春雪手迹放在古代中国展厅出口，就是让你在看完整个封建王朝的历史，看到最后是一个七零八落白茫茫一片结局时，有人以一种绝对的自信挺身而出，挽狂澜于既倒，扶大厦之将倾，这种极致的个人英雄主义靠的不是动画里虚构的神来之力，而是靠人的智慧、谋略和胆识，相比于苏轼因乌台诗案贬谪黄州这种个人人生起伏，教员面对的情形是一个有着上下五千年文明历史的民族正危在旦夕，在那种极致不利局面下展现出的没有一丝怀疑的自信，哪个豪放派可与之比肩？\n\n人民解放军占领南京-毛泽东\n钟山风雨起苍黄，百万雄师过大江。虎踞龙盘今胜昔，天翻地覆慨而慷。宜将剩勇追穷寇，不可沽名学霸王。天若有情天亦老，人间正道是沧桑。\n\n钟山：俗名紫金山，这里指南京。苍黄：巨大变化的意思，原出《墨子》感叹染丝者过程。慨而慷：慷慨激昂的意思，曹操《短歌行》：慨当以慷。剩勇：形容胜利的解放军的士气。沽名：博取名誉。天若有情天亦老，借用唐李贺《金铜仙人辞汉歌》中的诗句，这里意思是说苍天如果有感情，也会因为那黑暗统治而心力憔悴。人间正道：人世变化的自然规律。沧桑：社会变革。\n\n满江红·和郭沫若同志\n小小寰球，有几个苍蝇碰壁。嗡嗡叫，几声凄厉，几声抽泣，蚂蚁缘槐夸大国，蚍蜉撼树谈何易。正西风落叶下长安，飞鸣镝。\n多少事，从来急；天地转，光阴迫。一万年太久，只争朝夕。四海翻腾云水怒，五洲震荡风雷激。要扫除一切害人虫，全无敌。\n\n62年冬，刚走出三年困难时期的中国，又迎来中苏关系紧张。中苏文章争斗中，郭沫若填《满江红》一词，表达中国人民面对反华势力，团结一致坚持斗争的必胜信念，本写的理直气壮富有激情，但无意间似乎把反动派的声势过分看重了些，沧海横流，天垮下来，世披靡矣，未免言过其实。毛的和词就是针对这一点而发的。\n蚂蚁缘槐：《南柯太守传》喝醉梦见自己在大槐安国当了驸马，醒来才知是梦，后来在屋后发现一个白蚁穴，还建有王城，原来这就是“大槐安国”。\n鸣镝：响箭，汉时匈奴冒顿单于用来发号施令。\n《满江红·沧海横流》：沧海横流，方显出，英雄本色。人六亿，加强团结，坚持原则。天垮下来擎得起，世披靡矣扶之直。听雄鸡一唱遍寰中，东方白。太阳出，冰山滴；真金在，岂销铄？有雄文四卷，为民立极。桀犬吠尧堪笑止，泥牛入海无消息。迎东风革命展红旗，乾坤赤。·\n披靡：草木倒伏\n\n山水篇\n次北固山下-唐·王湾\n客路青山外，行舟绿水前。潮平两岸阔，风正一帆悬。海日生残夜，江春入旧年。乡书何处达，归雁洛阳边。\n\n作者洛阳人，玄宗年间进士，生卒年不详，现存诗10首。海日生残夜，江春如旧年 被看作是初唐，中唐诗界限的标志。\n次：停泊。北固山：现江苏镇江北，三面被长江环绕。客路：旅途。平：涨满。风正：风顺。残夜：夜将尽的时候。江春：长江两岸的春天。\n春雪融化水涨岸，江潮看起来与两岸持平，此时一帆高挂，顺风而下，显得江面更加宽阔了，春天迈着脚步走进过去的时光，诗人想把这份心情写入家信，寄送到故乡亲人身边。\n\n宣州谢脁[tiǎo]楼饯别校书叔云-唐·李白\n弃我去者，昨日之日不可留。乱我心者，今日之日多烦忧。长风万里送秋雁，对此可以酣高楼。蓬莱文章建安骨，中间小谢又清发。俱怀逸兴壮思飞，欲上青天揽日月。抽刀断水水更流，举杯浇愁愁更愁。人生在世不称意，明朝散发弄扁[piān]舟。\n\n宣州：今安徽宣城市一带。谢脁楼：又名北楼，谢公楼，南齐诗人谢脁任宣城太守时所建。饯别：以酒食送行。校书：官名，即校书郎，负责朝廷的图书整理工作。叔云：李白的叔叔李云。酣高楼：在高楼上开怀饮酒。蓬莱：海中仙山，这里指东观。东汉时的藏书室东观被称为“道家蓬莱山”。建安，汉献帝的年号。小谢：指谢脁。清发：清新俊逸。逸兴：超逸豪放的意兴。壮思：豪壮的情思。揽：摘取。弄扁舟：指隐逸江湖。\n2016年1221日解放军报评论员在《星空浩瀚无比，探索永无止境》一文中也借用李白的俱怀逸兴壮思飞，欲上青天揽日月诗句表达太空之路需要广大航天人续写。虽然这首诗是给叔叔送别，但并没有主写离别之苦，反倒抒发了诗人自己心中的愁苦，不愿与其它势力同流合污的决心和风骨。\n\n附录\n李白生平\n因爹是富商，所以五花马千金裘，呼儿将出换美酒，千金散尽还复来。但也因为从商的家庭背景，导致在那个时代不能参加科举。\n\n生卒年「701~762」 有说法其出生在中亚，童年在四川度过。母亲不是汉族，是个混血。\n\n最大愿望是当宰相，两次倒插门娶了宰相的女儿（虽是失势的相府）。最后一个妻子是他的迷妹–宗氏，传说曾千金买下他写过诗的一面墙（宗氏信奉道教，二人算是灵魂伴侣，曾去庐山与李林甫之女李腾空结伴修道[1]）。15岁学剑，师从剑圣裴旻（长于剑舞，打仗还是用大刀），一生潇洒，但子女无人管。\n\n杜甫为李白写过15首诗，可谓是粉丝第一人。流传下来的李白有回应3首。可能跟传抄散佚有关。呈现出杜：我爱李白，李：我爱全世界的风貌。\n斗酒诗百篇，相当于多少呢，小斗大约4斤（大斗12斤）相当于4瓶啤酒。\n\n42岁被皇帝请进宫，但主要工作是写歌词。因为人缘差被辞退，玄宗骂他固穷相，意思是难成大器。54岁时安史之乱爆发，56岁参军卷入永王叛乱，因曾救过郭子仪的命，才没被处死，改判流放夜郎，走到白帝城遭遇大赦天下，故千里江陵一日还，轻舟已过万重山，此时58岁的李白得以归家，心里突发畅快，但流放的经历导致身体状况并不好，也步入了人生的最后几个年头。投奔族叔李阳冰，62岁病逝于当涂。\n\n当涂，今安徽马鞍山，儿子伯禽来为其守孝，至李白生前好友范作之子范传正任宣歙观察使，特意去当涂访李白后人。伯禽已亡，其子外出多年未归，伯禽的两女已嫁农夫，进止仍有风范，按其孙女所言李白遗愿「先祖志在青山，顷葬东麓，非本意」，将其迁葬于一心所向的青山，去世55年后与谢脁结为“异代芳邻&quot;\n\n李白一生坎坷，一生都在出世和入世间挣扎，虽名满天下，但没有获得政治上的建树。虽有入世之心，但也正是政治抱负严重超越政治才华而不自知的代表人物。去世一年后，新皇帝代宗登基，为永王平反，召李白为左拾遗（谏官，女皇开创的，从八品上，品级不高，却是天子近臣），可惜李白已无法亲历昭雪。\n杜甫生平\n在明朝才有诗圣一说。他爷爷是唐朝文章四友之一杜审言，外婆是唐太宗的重孙女，妈妈是清河崔氏家的大小姐，可杜甫自己却出生于一个小山村，也是家族没落的代表吧。\n\n当时唐朝人眼中，杜甫没有那么伟大，唐人自己选编的《唐人选唐诗》也没有收录杜甫的诗歌，以李白王维为主流的文坛上，杜甫甚至有些不入流。科举一直没考上，中晚年一直压抑悲惨，但诗文中小家大家都不放弃，推己爱人，心忧天下，是他的文化意义。\n\n7岁能吟凤凰诗，16岁随在郾城当副县长的父亲游洛阳，逛长安，结识了歌手李龟年。\n\n年幼时在歧王李隆范party上见过，相比较李白应没去过歧王府上做客，歧王去世的时候李白刚仗剑出蜀抵达扬州结识孟浩然。歧王作为玄宗的亲弟弟，钟爱诗文音律，不喜政治。睿宗一脉被长期被软禁生活，除了三子李隆基对政治有野心\n\n20岁开始了长达10年的溜达，24岁一心想参加高考，却落榜了，毫不在乎的杜甫继续溜达，浪荡齐赵间，会当凌绝顶，一览众山小。30岁娶了19岁的杨小姐为妻，32岁在洛阳认识谜一样的大哥李白（小李白11岁，此时李白已43），跟李白一起访仙山炼仙丹，还结识了高适。\n35岁长安大雨连绵2个月，李林甫奉旨在全国选拔人才，告别李太白来参加高考，发现是一场闹剧。这年他写下了饮中八仙歌，屡试不中的杜甫拿着自己的诗文开始长达十年的向长安的达官贵人行卷（诗文写成卷轴，投送朝中显贵，以求其推荐給主考官）。39岁向唐玄宗李隆基进献了3篇歌功颂德的大赋，终于等到了一次机会，加入了后备干部名单。\n一等又等了5年，43岁等到一个小职位，嫌小没有去，这年安史之乱爆发，小儿子饿死奉先家中，写下了朱门酒肉臭路有冻死骨。44岁又等到一个仓库保卫科科长的职务，同年带家人逃亡陕西，却被押回长安监狱。夜里想妻子，写下《月夜》，自己想媳妇写成媳妇想自己，后越狱，此刻同期隔壁还关着诗佛王维。45岁去运城冒死投奔唐肃宗，被授左拾遗（副处级），因爱管闲事同年又被贬华洲参军一职，47岁去洛阳探亲，写下了三吏三别。\n49岁辞去参军一职，在朋友高适帮助下，在成都浣花溪旁建好了草堂，过了两年平静生活。写下《春夜喜雨》，《忽闻官军收河南河北》，51岁春写下两个黄鹂鸣翠柳，一行白鹭上青天，这年8月份大风大雨磅礴刮倒茅屋，写下《茅屋为秋风所破歌》。\n53岁在朋友严武的举荐下，在京都挂了一个正处级的虚职，检校员外郎，史称杜工部。\n\n严武接替作为诗人将军的高适，领军作战能力强出一截，重击吐蕃，在高适到任之前就打的吐蕃闻风丧胆。\n严家和杜家是世交，严父与杜甫爷爷同朝为相，不过杜甫比严武年长；高严二人给了杜甫生活宝贵的帮助，二人故去后杜甫在成都也过不下去了\n\n55岁在奉节写下无边落木萧萧下不尽长江滚滚来(千古七绝-登高)。57岁在岳阳写下登岳阳楼，59岁春在长沙的一次宴会上，又遇李龟年写下了，正是江南好风景，落花时节又逢君。此时杜甫身患重病，双耳失灵，冬天坐小船开往岳阳，停靠耒阳，吃了耒阳县长送的牛肉和酒第二天中毒身亡（虚岁59岁, 712~ 770年)。\n终其一生，可说杜甫有快乐的童年，溜达的青年，求官的中年，寄人篱下的晚年，一代诗圣落幕。\n\n在诗歌创作上，杜甫1400多首风格多样，尤其律诗这种艺术形式被其发挥到极致（900多首律诗），是唐代律诗最高成就的代表，《登高》还被称为千古七绝第一。\n律诗对格律有十分严格的要求，一般人根本不敢尝试，杜甫不仅写的很通顺，还各种情景交融，各种用典，内涵丰富。至今运用的成语好多都是来源于他的诗。\n\n高适生平\n最近《长安三万里》（片名来自明代陈子龙的《从军行》，长安代表李白高适心中的理想之地，三万里是他们与理想之间的距离）上映，第一时间去看了。第一主角是高适，也用高适的视角讲了李白的一生，或者说真正的主角是李白。多数考据认为高适小李白3岁（生于704年），可叹唐代诗人唯一封侯的人，事业成就最高的人，连出生年份都未能在史书中直接留下。旧唐书对他的评价：有唐以来，诗人之达者，唯适而已。\n李高杜三人的人生经历，高很坚毅，面对苦难很坚持，不屈不饶，非常贴合普通人的状态。高适祖父高侃为唐代名将，于太宗朝擒突厥车鼻可汗，参与灭高句丽之战，封平原郡开国公，陪葬乾陵。亲父已经落为小公务员，又去世的早，所以作为渤海高氏出身的高三十五（字达夫，因官职又别名高常侍），幼时的生活并不富足，求功名不得经常在老家一呆就是10年。少有口吃，但有一颗以武建功的心，所以一生几次参加军旅生活，不然也不会称为边塞诗人的代表。\n屡次求功名不中，在46岁中了进士，授封丘尉（县公安局长），这点比杜甫在功名路上更有起色。49岁辞封丘尉，任凉州河西节度使哥舒翰幕府任掌书记，52岁转监察御史，佐哥舒翰守潼关。碌碌前半生，然因安史之乱获得了人生的大逆转。\n53岁潼关破，哥舒翰被俘，只身追赶避难的朝廷，给玄宗献策，得到重视，又因李辅国诋毁，将其下放至太子身边做事，不料此举拉近了高适与太子的关系。接着太子即位，同年面对永王叛乱，高适直接被任命为淮南节度使，讨伐永王叛军。此时的李白放弃了庐山清修，正在永王阵营中。二人从朋友站到了对立面，面对李白的求救信，高适没有留下只言片语，这种谋逆罪，对于辛苦半生得到难得上升机会的高适来说，如履薄冰实在是要避嫌，身不由己，在动画中策动郭子仪搭救李白，是一种美好的友情圆场。事实的真相是什么，的确无法得知了，或许因为此事，二人削减了交往的痕迹材料，让我们不禁惋惜。但二人的出身和人生理念，的确是有所别，走出不同的人生境遇选择，也是可以理解的。\n平定永王叛乱后，54岁又受命参与讨安史叛军，56岁任彭州刺史，57岁，改任蜀州刺史，60岁，迁任剑南节度使，但面对吐蕃进攻松 [治所位于今四川阿坝松潘县]，维 [今四川理县]，保 [今四川理县，天宝年间改名过云山郡，动画中有云山城] 三州，高适不能救，61岁被严武所代，迁刑部侍郎，转散骑常侍，进封渤海县侯。62岁正月，卒[704 - 765年]，留有《高常侍集》传世。\n\n动画中云山城一役的广德元年703年前一年，李白已过世\n动画中高适计谋成功功成身退的设计也是创作方的艺术加工，实际为不敌\n\n参考\n1.新华网 才华空前绝后的李白 从生到死都是一团迷雾 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文学"]},{"title":"读华为管理哲学","url":"/%E8%AF%BB%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%BA%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html","content":"\n战略思想–以客户为中心\n华为的一个功利集团，一切都是围绕商业利益的。华为文化的特征就是服务文化，因为只有服务才能换来商业利益。\n\n服务的含义是很广的，不仅仅指售后服务，从产品的研究，生产到产品生命终结前到优化升级，员工的思想意识，家庭生活，我们要以服务来设定队伍建设的宗旨。\n\n以客户为中心，以奋斗者为本，长期坚持艰苦奋斗，这三大根本保障就是华为超越竞争对手的全部秘密。\n\n以客户为中心是艰苦奋斗的方向，艰苦奋斗是手段和途径，以奋斗者为本是艰苦奋斗的活力源泉，保持客户为中心的内在动力。\n\n创新\n有价值的创新\n领先半步是先进，领先三步是成先烈\n\n\n超前太多的技术，当然也是人类的瑰宝，但必须牺牲自己来完成。技术先进到别人还没有对它完全认识和认可，以致没有人买，产品卖不出却消耗了大量的人力，物力，财力，丧失了竞争力。许多领导世界潮流的技术，虽然是万米赛跑的领跑者，却不一定是赢家，反而为“清洗盐碱地”和推广新技术而付出大量的成本。\n\n倡导有价值的创新，当你没有技术创新与管理体系的傻投入，就不会有真正的产品与市场的竞争力，就只能靠低价和打价格战，就没有利润空间。产品品质不好是耻辱，企业没利润可挣也是耻辱，从根本上看，利润只能从客户那来，只能加大对客户价值创造能力的投入。\n客户需求创新和技术创新双轮驱动是华为最好的创新指导思想，从工程师创新走向科学家工程师一同创新，我们不仅要以客户为中心，研究合适的产品与服务，且要面对未来的技术方向加大投入，对平台核心加强投入，要占领战略的至高地。\n围绕商业需要\n产品创新一定要围绕商业需要，不准胡乱创新。\n\n贝尔实验室为什么最后垮了，电子显微镜是贝尔实验室发明的，但它的本职是做通信的，它为了满足科学家的个人愿望就发明了这个电子显微镜。发明后成果丢到外面划不来，于是就成立电子显微镜的组织作为商业面的承载。无边界的技术创新有可能会误导公司战略。\n\n聚焦主航道，市场主导应用\n科学家能略宽一点，科学家的创新他们关注技术，愿意怎么想就怎么想（对研究和创新的约束不是无边界的，只能聚焦在主航道上，或者略宽一点），但是他们不能左右应用。技术是否投入使用，什么时候投入使用，我们要考另一个轮子marketing，marketing不断在听客户的声音，今天，明天，未来的需求，才能确定我们掌握的技术该怎么用，以及投入市场的准确时间。\n继承式创新\n一个大公司，最体现降低成本的措施就是资源共享，满脑子大创新的人实在是幼稚可笑的，是没有希望的。坚持在牛粪上长出鲜花来，一步步的延伸。\n饱和攻击\n内部对不确定性的研究，验证，实行多路径，多梯次的进攻，密集进攻，饱和攻击\n人才\n好的人才就值好价格\n要想真正地留住骨干员工，就必须提供有竞争力的薪酬。要让一个公司50%-60%的人是优秀分子，然后在优秀的种子中再选优秀的苗；中间分子20%-30%，让优秀分子来挤压稍微后进的人，这样他们可能也会发生改变。\n员工持股+股权激励\n第一版-内部集资（员工投资行为，吸储）\n90年第一次提出内部持股，其实是内部融资，许诺以税后利润15%作为股权分红。这么干，增加了公司现金流，也绑定了创业团队（股价=1人民币）\n第二版-虚拟股权，重点激励（留人过冬）\n未来的钱就是公司将会赚到的钱，可以提早进入管理系统来激励现有的员工，也就是许诺员工参与利润分享。\n2000后，互联网泡沫破灭，华为经历经济寒冬。员工股权调整成虚拟股权（没有投票权，不能转让出售，离开华为时自动失效），但在原来分红的基础上，把公司净资产的增值部分也拿出来和员工分享（本质就是超额利润分红，增强员工归属和核心团队的稳定，也是不少成长中现金不充裕中小企业的合适之选）。\n\n本质上还是超额利润分红的做法，利润好的公司是可以借鉴的\n\n股权从每股1元变成按净资产定价，还设定了4年的期权行使期限。激励从90年代的“普惠”原则向“重点激励”转变，核心骨干员工配股额度大大超过普通员工。\n第三版-饱和配股\n2008年，全球金融危机，华为又进行了大规模配股，根据不同级别员工设定了配股上限，也叫“饱和配股”，不少老员工因持股已到达上限，没参与本次配股，给新员工持股留下了空间。\n\n饱和率–说白了就是激励后来的潜力年轻人，拒绝人之道的马太效应，贴近天之道\n\n要调整饱和率上限，最直接的办法就是调整职级，要成为&quot;奋斗者&quot;\n\n要签订奋斗者协议才能获得股份，还有很多具体措施去识别\n\n第四版- TUP计划\nTUP- Time Unit Plan 时间单位计划，员工可在5年内享受分红权，5年后享受一次净资产增值权，然后全部清零。按照条件重新配股，彻底解决老员工“躺在功劳簿上睡大觉的问题”\n总结\n\n持股人多，按2019数据，18.8万员工，9.7万人持股（工作一定年限的奋斗者都有机会配股）\n不断强调奋斗者为本的价值观，强调员工间形成差距，承认人的差异性。避免激励的边际效用递减，早期的制度也要适配不定期调整\n虚拟股权的收入占到员工收入很高的比例（1/3以上），是员工无法忽视的，很少有放弃奋斗者资格的\n\n\n给的提示全员持股不要做成普惠的保健因素，而是应该做成向奋斗者倾斜与绩效强相关的激励因素。当然早期不值钱的时候不要搞那么复杂，早期躺在功劳簿上的人也没那么多。\n\n对很多人力资本为主的高科技公司来讲，因同行给员工配股，不给就留不住人。另一方面，给大家发股权好像也没太大激励效果，两难。股权越来越成为一个保健因素，如何变成激励因素，那就要观摩华为的做法：\n全员持股一般问题是钱少，普惠跟绩效关联不大，而华为全员持股是钱多，向奋斗者倾斜，跟绩效强相关，且还会做动态的调整。\n不要完美主义\n对英雄也不要求全责备，要接受有缺点的美，只要过了汶川救灾线，尿了裤子的也是英雄。有一点点成绩的就是英雄，将来才会有千军万马上战场。完人可能做不出大贡献。\n开放-全球化多喝咖啡\n华为过去上一个封闭的人才金字塔结构，现在已炸开金字塔尖，开放吸收宇宙能量，加强与全世界科学家 对话与合作，多与能人喝咖啡，从思想火花中，感知发展方向。\n干部考核–团队利益使命\n不要说考核残酷，有人说我还可以，我们不是仅仅要可以，我们对不同干部有不同要求，你们要思考怎么担负得起这个使命来。如果你的销售额及利润上不去，不是我要拿掉你的官职，你没有利润，薪酬包就小了，不够弟兄们分，在你的领导下，弟兄们都赚不到钱，那不推翻你才怪。你不如真正拿出自己的战斗能力，加强学习，加强对事物 认识，从而找到机会点。\n组织队伍要跟上业务\n解放战争胜利的太快了，为了接管全中国，毛泽东集中了两万营团干部在石家庄建立华北大学，这些营团干部完成训练就分配工作，接管全中国。华为的承接市场和推升发展，也进行一场比较大的组织结构变革，也需要两万营团干部，当然希望一万是将军。\n扩张\n抵御多元化的红舞鞋\n很多公司垮下去，不是因为机会少，而是因为机会太多，选择太多，太多伪装成机会的陷阱，使许多公司步入误区而不能自拔。机会，是炙手可热的战略资源，但并不是所有的战略资源都可以开发成战略产业，有些只能为资本运作和战略结盟提供题材和想象空间。中国企业战略资源本来就不多，战略失误将流失最宝贵的战略资源。\n\n在企业成长和发展的道路上，多元化的红舞鞋的诱惑随处可见，红舞鞋常常披着冠冕堂皇的外衣，或者伴随着高昂澎湃的激情，甚至爱有如泰山压顶的力量之下，被推到企业家的面前。\n\n很多公司的多元化发展，就是利用公司原有的人力物力进行新的行业，例如让船长直接去当机长，结果业务不精，运作成本太高，问题迭出。多元化成功的关键，并不在于技术和金钱，而在于不断改革管理体制。不要总想着做第一第二，不要抢登山头，不要有赌博心理，喜马拉雅山山顶冷得很，不容易活下来。华为最低最高战略都是如何活下来，你活得比别人久，你就是成功者\n民企灵活，高效，在快速发展的时期会有良好表现，但民营资本也容易暴露一些顽疾。一方面在多元化发展的误导下，盲目兼并扩张带来空心化；有些民营资本沉迷于资本运作带来的短期利益，盲目加杠杆导致难以消化。另一方面，战略方向选择上，过于“急功近利”，迷信规模和成本，忽略企业自身可持续发展能力的建设，最终遭遇到周期困境。\n安邦系，明天系已经灰飞烟灭，泛海系已经岌岌可危，复兴和新希望也陷入房地产困局。这些陷入困局的传统民营资本，都难以适应新的经济结构变化和资本市场发展的新形势，需要依靠自己的能力和新的战略获得新的可持续发展空间。\n老老实实种庄稼\n任正非的管理思维中，经常把一些管理模式比喻为种庄稼，任说：”华为要松土，翻新，种子是我们自己种的，外部请来的专家，引进的流程就像投射进来的阳光，如果我们离开这片田地，能从外面捡回来玉米（去旋转起舞），但也许一开始播下的种子（主赛道的核心业务）就死了“\n\n松土翻新，其实也是不断革新，求发展，甚至组织激活。所以这一段，你只取松土翻新这两句，也是可以用在开拓和组织管理领域的。\n\n占领制高点\n具有战略地位的地方就叫制高点，那制高点在什么地方呢，就在10%的企业和10%的地区，从世界范围看大数据流量，在日本，是3%的地区，汇聚了70%的数据流量，在中国，10%左右的地区汇聚未来中国90%左右的流量。怎么抓住机会，战略上要聚焦要集中力量。\n并购\n30年来，华为没进行过任何规模型的资本并购，华为的认知是，买规模就是买问题，这会带来文化冲突和价值观的冲击，以及可能的财务陷阱，更多是要点性并购，对象是尖端的研发类小公司。\n华为的扩张模式\n华为的扩张模式主要是一种贸易式扩张，全球性的市场网络和研发平台。产品的研发需求来自华为，架构由欧美顶尖专家设计，硬件由华为中国团队完成，软件主要由印度科技人才承担，制造主要由富士康公司完成，最后再在华为的全球市场网络进行销售。\n企业经营的辩证法\n经营中不追求完美\n世界是变化的，永远没有精致完美，追求完美就会陷入低端的事务主义，僵化越做越糊涂，且变成小脚女人，怎么冲锋打仗，如我们用完美的观点去寻找英雄，是唯心主义，英雄就在我们身边，天天和我们相处。\n灰度是常态，黑与白是哲学上的假设，反对在公司管理上走极端，提倡系统性思维。在认识事物时，极端的观点，绝对化的观点，一层不变的观点都是不正确的，任正非是深谙唯物辩证法的高手。\n关于系统性思维多说一句\n\n任正非说华为欠缺系统性思维，因为是从小的游击战打过来的，提拔的都是务实的人，没有对务虚的人给予肯定，要转换，慢慢从人力资源机制中形成培养战略家思想家的土壤。\n\n灰度与妥协\n妥协的内涵和底蕴比字面含义丰富的多，懂得它与实践更是完全不同的两回事。\n\n纵观中国历史上的变法，虽对中国社会进步产生了不灭的影响，但大多没有达到变革者的理想。面对他们所处的时代环境，他们的变革太激进，太僵化，冲破阻力的方法太苛刻，如果他们用较长的时间来实践，而不是太急迫，太全面，收效也许会好一些。\n\n变法的失败其实就是缺少灰度，方向是坚定不移的，但并不是一条直线，也许是不断左右摇摆的曲线，在某些时段，还会画一个圈，但我们离得远一些或粗一些看，它的方向仍是紧紧地指着前方。\n在任正非看来，清晰的方向来自灰度。一个领导人重要的素质是方向，节奏。他自己的水平就是合适的灰度。坚定不移的正确方向来自灰度妥协与宽容。\n管理改进\n七反对\n\n坚决反对完美主义\n坚决反对繁琐哲学\n坚决反对盲目创新\n坚决反对没有全局效益提升的局部优化\n坚决反对没有全局观的干部主导变革\n坚决反对没有业务实践经验的人参加变革\n坚决反对没有充分论证的流程进行实用\n\n对抗组织怠惰\n华为最可怕的不是腐败和山头问题，而是惰怠，是组织疲劳，历史是最可怕的敌人。\n什么是变革，变革就是利益的重新分配，利益重新分配是大事，不是小事，必须有一个强有力的管理机构，才能进行利益的重新分配，变革才能运行。旧平衡逐步走向新的利益分配平衡。平衡循环过程，是促使企业核心竞争力提升与效益增长的必需。\n\n阿里和华为被市场推崇，被老板喜欢，这两家公司喜欢和善于组织调整，善于刺激组织活力\n\n基本盘扎实-跳芭蕾的女孩都有一双粗腿\n\n芭蕾女孩身材好，腿细长，但在专业人士眼里，这些看法都是不客观的，大部分芭蕾女孩，双腿非常粗，脚也很大，因为这样才更有力量。才能支撑起弹性与柔性，支撑起令人炫目的动感与平衡。力量是根本，建立在力学原理基础上的事物，才可能存在和协之美，均衡之美。\n\n善跳芭蕾需要你基本盘扎实，不要被美感错觉欺骗。\n毛式企业管理\n任正非在部队服役时就是学毛标兵，仔细研究华为的发展史就不难发现，华为的市场攻略，客户政策，竞争策略，以及内部管理与运作，都深深地打上传统权谋智慧和毛式斗争哲学的烙印。任正非的很多内部讲话和宣传资料中，字里行间都跳动着战争术语。\n随着毛的军事战略被引入到现代化的企业战略中，形成了独特的毛泽东式企业管理理论，成了中国企业界特有的一道语言氛围风景。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"豫南迁徙史简记","url":"/%E8%B1%AB%E5%8D%97%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E5%8F%B2%E7%AE%80%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\n在豫南生活二十余载，一直很好奇家乡的方言和河南省主体差别那么大，初以为是地理因素隔条大淮河发音不同，到了市里发现与市里甚至不远的县发音也好大差异，异类般存在。其实不仅仅是方言语调，连习俗也很多细微区别，种种就不是简单一座山，一条河能够解释的了的了。\n难以置信的巧合是，在广东练车长训去韶关，住同一寝室一外省老者（江西还是浙江记不得了），说他们那一片人祖籍是我们家乡人，相隔千里，方言一样，他这代人已没见过家乡的样子，我诧异不已，原来还有这般渊源，勾起了探究这一份历史缘由的念头。\n迁入\n元末，连年（13年间）战乱，湖北湖南等地人烟稀少田地荒芜，举例湖北孝感地区在洪武二十六年统计，每平方公里5人，而江西受战乱影响较小，鄱阳湖周遭人口相对较稠密，为了恢复生产，平衡发展，朱元璋遂订立江西填湖北的计划（加之也要破除陈友谅的旧有势力），除去强制，且断绝返乡，也有政策优惠，太祖很推崇朱重八这个伟人，有些策略做法也向其学习过。\n两个移民管理点：筷子巷和麻城\n江西迁出的人员领取移民证后，则其留在江西的亲人就无需代其继续在江西负担徭役和税赋（强制外的利诱），到湖北后，必须到麻城登记，将江西户籍转为湖北户籍，否则不能占地耕种或免除徭役税赋等优惠政策，到麻城登记过后，还可以领取官方发放的种子等生产物资。固定的地点设定，利于统计移民数量和管理。\n在江西的移民销户地点设在筷子巷好理解，南昌筷子巷位于南昌和赣江之滨。但孝感府不一定要路过麻城，为甚转换户籍地点放在麻城呢，原因有二：\n\n一方面从1360年起，朱元璋的同乡及亲属也就是官方人士相继迁来麻城，是重要的官方人员聚居和办公地点\n另一方面，因为人烟稀少，在洪武初年，孝感已降级被黄州管理，后来才恢复的编制，麻城是黄州离孝感最近的州县，移民的吃住在人口密度较大的麻城才能承担。\n\n罗山/光山二县沉重的历史\n\n罗山亦是元末农民起义的发源地之一，20余年战乱使人口锐减，存者寥寥，光山罗山与湖广搭界，自然也是被填的对象。\n明末又连年兵祸天灾，豫南民众死的死逃的逃，至清顺治十六年（1659），罗山全县仅2858人，政府又从江西和湖北迁入大批人口。光山和罗山虽同处中原文化与楚文化的接合地带，但其文化传统却区别于同一地带的周边地区，其东边的潢川和西邻的信阳，语音更接近于北方中原，而光山和罗山的语音则更接近于楚，其祭祀方式在当地传统习惯基础上融入了对祖籍地江西的怀念之情。\n迁出\n许多人在迁入地一旦生活不下去外逃时，首选目标即是回到祖籍地江西，明末时就有大批人逃到江西。但本文提及的内容，倒不是主要江西，而是环太湖一线，散布苏皖浙三省。\n\n躲太平军之乱，清咸丰同治年间，太平军捻军清军在罗山境活动战斗长达10余年，给当地人民带来沉重灾难，大批人口被迫逃离家乡。还有一种说法是当时豫南人口多，有人口压力，税赋重，烽烟起，敢于冒险者响应政府招引，背井离乡远赴江南。谁愿意背景离乡，不管哪种说法对，当时一定是生存压力很大\n\n清同治年间，江南宣城广德一带出现瘟疫，人口锐减，（不如说是太平天国战乱死人太多引发瘟疫）前去补充人口多为光山罗山人。当他们逃到这里时，长兴当地人基本被太平天国军队杀光了，这里又临近太湖，是个水草丰美的鱼米之乡，于是先人们就在湖边拓荒耕地，开始了聚居生活。与故乡分离150多年，却仍沿袭和豫南迁出地一样的文化。\n\n太平天国一闹腾，江南受灾严重，举例浙江长兴县咸丰元年人口47万，战乱后到同治六年统计就只剩21969人，为汉朝以来人口最低点。\n\n迁移路线，一路向东出河南进安徽，在芜湖过江到宣城，到后来成为“小河南”的安徽广德和浙江长兴泗安（这两个地方都是交通要道，亦是当今信阳人比例最高的县乡）为中心点，再延伸到整个环太湖。这也是文章起头偶遇外省同音老乡的缘由。\n习俗的差异\n民俗对比了解得少，在参考文章的举例中，发现光山罗山二县连祭祀祖先，新婚回门时间，清明节操作习俗… 等等原来都是在豫南很特别的存在，有兴趣可以细看。\n参考资料\n\n浙江长兴有河南村，根在豫南\n信阳地区清末移民环太湖历史考察记略\n不该被遗忘的“江西填湖广”\n\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史","地理"]},{"title":"财务自由","url":"/%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html","content":"\n\n2024年9月13日，延迟法定退休年龄的决定被代议制人大常委会表决通过并对外公布。\n\n胡润报告\n胡润财富家庭报告，一石激起千层浪。把财富分为 ￥600w，￥1000w，￥1 亿，$3000w几个档。\n\n拥有 ￥600w 资产的有 514w 个家庭，能掏出 ￥600w 用于投资的只有 185w 家庭，\n在￥1000w 净值家庭中，分别是企业主 52%，金领34%，职业股民 8%，不动产投资者 6%，这批千万富翁中不动产基本占到总身家一半左右。\n但到了亿级富豪这个阶层，这个群体只有三类人，开公司的，炒股的，炒房的，没有金领这样的高级打工人了，也说明了你不可能通过出租时间（上班）暴富的，这个群体里房产占比就比较低了，不到 20%，更多是企业资产和证劵资产。\n\n为何 ￥600w 是一个槛？按大额存单收益，2.5%，￥15w 足够负担普通家庭一年开支，有 ￥600w 资产已经是百里挑一了，更别说有 ￥600w 可投资的现金了。\n换一种阶层算法，例如年息收入能到 30w，基本能保证你在一线城市过得还不错。如果年利率能到 5%，意味着你需要现金 存款 600w，所以你到底是要花 5w买个包，30w 买个车，接着忍受你不喜欢的工作，还是说尽量把这些钱都存下来。退不退休不一定，可以退而不休，选择余地特别大。\n欲念之火\n财务自由，当代人的生命之光，欲念之火。从绝大多数人上分析，实际上当代人的财务自由，本质就是拉皮条的神话。靠通过出租时间（上班）不可能暴富，在经济不景气的时候，创造点真金白银的财富，更为艰难，想法子把别人口袋里的钱，腾挪到自个儿口袋里，就是实现财务自由的不二法门（财富积累的最快方式是财富转移而非财富创造）。\n金额的认知\n人均百万的迷失\n越来越多的人对钱失去了认知，100w 算不算很多钱？以成都为例， 2020 年收入中位数不到 6w（2021 年达到 6.55w，月薪中位数 5458），100w 需要不吃不喝 17 年才能存到，如果一个月存 2 千，那么需要 50 年才能存到，即便号称人人收入过万的深圳（75%分位月入 1.13w，90 分位月薪 1.91w），收入中位数为 7235 ，上海 8600，北京 8100，二线城市中位数没有超过 5500 的，这也没什么可吃惊的，一线城市最大的群体就是产线工人，餐饮服务员，便利店超市员工，快递小哥等，更别说小城镇了。\n按二线城市的基本衣食住行，2千能活，3千稍微轻松，4~5千不买房也算得上安逸，100w 够你花 33 年，差不多是大部分人一辈子的工作时间。你有 5w 存款已超过全国平均值了，10w 则排进中国前 20%，有些人看似有房有车，但一次性拿出十几、二十万 可能也真的困难，比起资产来说现金流更为重要。\n\n\n把最高和最低的 10%去掉，深圳 80%的人年收入在 3.6w 到 39.4w之间\n\n\n有钱人标准\n按草根巴菲特安德鲁•哈勒姆（Andrew Hallam）的观点，一个“有钱人”（财务自由）至少应该满足如下两个标准：\n1、可以选择不工作，而不必为了生计而担忧。\n2、所持有的投资，可以保证终生都有两倍于本国中等收入家庭的收益。2020年，北上广深3口之家的平均家庭年收入为24-50万元，疫情后这几年这个数字应该没大变化。也就是说，一个人的投资年收益如果能持续超过50万，并随着时间的增长而不断增长，就可以算一个有钱人。\n在北上广深实现财务自由，实际的门槛并没有胡润《中国千万富豪品牌倾向报告》报告里提到的1.3 亿那么高，只要满足三个条件即可实现财务自由：有社保（提前离职也可以继续缴纳社保），有一套还款完成的住房加一千万现金（一半人民币一半美元，即500万人民币和70万美元），即可在北上广深实现财务自由。有社保和住房保证了医疗和居住不会出现大问题，一千万现金保证日常生活不会出大问题，人民币的部分，可以投入稳健类的理财（债券、信托、优质股票或优质基金等），美元部分，可以购买优质美股（苹果、亚马逊、谷歌、微软、脸书等）或者指数基金（标普500指数基金或纳斯达克100指数基金等），假设收益率为7%，通货膨胀率为2%，每年生活支出控制在50万元以内，即可一直持续下去，每年消费现金÷(7%-2%)=实现财务自由所需要的最少现金量。每年的消费额度控制在50万元以内，这大概就可以算得上进入财务自由的门槛了[4]。\n金钱和自由的认知\n财务自由的本质\n财务自由各路说法标准不一，但几乎都归结到拥有多少钱上，这种说法比较娱乐，从实质上讲货币这东西只是个中介物（一般等价物），它并不是财富，更不是财务。财务自由的本质是拥有多少合法占有他人财富的方法，并保持稳定。而不合法的都是掠夺[3]。\n通过解构来理解，普通人就财产性收入和工资性收入两部分，工资性收入属于劳动人民，社会经济的发展和科技的进步，让人们的使用价值期限越来越短，被辞退的年龄日渐年轻化。当财产性收入大于日常开销，在有限范围内想干点啥就干点啥，即财务自由。财务自由的关键在于财产性收入，说白了就是怎么剥削他人！坐享其成，躺着收财产的资息。从整个社会看，只有很小一部分人能实现财务自由，因为这部分人的自由需要其他人拼命劳动来承担。\n开拓被动收入渠道，增厚资产\n\n如果你在工作，就把工资收入的一部分存起来，养一只下金蛋的鹅，会为你带来持续的被动收入\n或边工作边修筑一条持续赚钱的管道\n或利用工作之余，挖一口属于你自己的井\n\n财产的背后支撑逻辑就是层级划分。事实上作为普通人，无论你有多少钱，社会金字塔画条线，塔尖的人永远比你更有钱。因为钱的分配肯定倾斜于他们，或者说给他们印的钱。货币就是一个中介物，是金字塔运行中的一股股水流而已。水流再多也不会改变金字塔结构。所谓「自由就是用他人的时间换来的」，大家唯一能做的，是跟住水流积累财产，才能在阶层动态变化中逐步晋升。\n货币不是财富，用钞票来衡量和计算不靠谱，那用什么呢？ 抠到根上，最能衡量的就是底层的分工劳动时间。如帝都一套房的增值收入（含租金），等于某村里一个农民多少年的劳动收入。这俩值（增值收入和劳动收入）是一直在变化的，比值就是劳动时间。所谓自由就是用他人的时间换来的。\n大家口头上的钱是你过去劳动力的集合，是你通过使用自己这个躯壳接受既定教育，完成技能培训，消耗时间生命换来的一般等价物。用这个一般等价物去交换其它生活必需品。有钱人用杠杆表面借的是钱，实际上借的是大家的劳动力，是大家存在银行的劳动剩余。最后用资本垄断资源，再把资源锚定一般等价物卖还给你，形成财富闭环。不能玩剥削的东西不叫财产！而剥削与劫掠就是富对穷。\n举个例子，当看到新闻里讲“加强居民财产性收入”的时候，就要想到两点： 一是有些群体可能要凉了，这边加强了，那边肯定要有牺牲的。一套房财产性收入翻个几倍，涨出的部分相当于十八线工农干好几辈子赚的。本质就相当于成全一小撮人劫掠一大撮人的劳动，而实现了自身的自由。\n资本时代的两个铁律：\n\n下面不停干活，才能保证上面的财务自由\n塔尖正在玩什么财产，钱肯定就流入到那\n\n资本社会的核心就在于货币流动。富人跟着资产转，资产跟着泡沫转，泡沫跟着货币转，货币跟着信贷转，信贷跟着周期转，周期跟着经济形势转，调节形势跟着央行政策转，一定时段上各国银行跟着美联储转。\n养殖供养\n世界是个养殖场，就是农场主饲养小动物，跟农场主靠的紧日子就好过，更大概率能得到财务自由！普通人最好做法是跟最大的庄，这类庄的选择是「能带动就业的盘」，跟着喝汤。\n在国际上这种“养殖”叫做国际协作分工，等神州国际化了，上面讲的十八线工农饱受掠夺的低端型劳动，也将扔给第三世界，而我们用财产性收入（金融）来买他们东西，实现我们的自由。老美就这么玩我们的，他们的幸福建立在我们的付出之上。我们也终将把老美玩的所有套路重演一遍，不管是对外还是对内。\n无论是国际分工还是神州内部的社会金字塔运行，「养殖」模式是相通的，小动物的养殖模式探讨可看这一篇文章。现在的大城市圈放开户籍抢人，在抢劳动力和劳动力兜里钱的背后，是形成“分圈养殖”。\n\n财务自由的对手盘\n对于大多数普通人，社会现在设计的本来就是你存不到钱，老美等国家也是一样的，社会稍微存款多一点，那房子就涨价一波吧。为什么，因为你存钱多了，谁去干活？总要有人去干活啊，你有数十年积蓄，你会去干活吗，都财富自由请问谁去做事！\n普通人不要指望自己可以存很多钱，商家会想办法掏空你的口袋，最好你还欠银行一些钱，每年你可以还得起的，这样你一家人会疯狂的工作，会调动最多的劳动力。钱只不过是印出来的。\n短缺经济时代，以产品为核心，好是真的好，大家讲4P；过剩经济时期，满世界都是套路，真实的商品交易已经赚不到高额利润，消费者认为的好都是被其他人洗脑的结果，玩的是 4C，以刺激需求为核心，就是让你想要啥，然后给你啥。保健品，知识付费，甚至自律都是一种智商税。\n为了建立一个健康的财务环境，你需要取消关注某些人，校正容易变穷的财务习惯和模式，主导自己的消费，顺势致富。对许多人来说，选择父母同侪($ch\\acute{a}i$, 辈分相同的人)和社会期望我们走的路，或按广告商告诉我们的方法来消费，会没那么挣扎。但若你的生活方式只是为了安抚身边人，违背了自己的价值观和想为自己设计的生活，那么财务上的危险就会出现。\n自由的心智标准\n财务自由是另一个更模糊词（这个词叫安全感）的组成部分。站在生命中点看终点，财务自由到底什么？从底线上来讲，像个人样活着，真不需要太多。\n\n不出席活动或会议，你的旧衣服估计能顶你穿200年\n高级套餐煎饼15块一套\n像个人样住着，十二平可能是个底线。\n后代们自有自己的福分\n养亲以讨欢心为本，但欢心和给钱没多少关系。洒脱的早已成仙，不洒脱的早已没一丝一毫觉悟的可能。\n\n财务自由很大程度上其实和财务无关，还是和一个人的心智洞明纠缠在一起。所以财务自由的标准是什么？很多人觉得是财务状况，但除了少数暴富群体，更重要是你对自由的定义，有人向往纸醉金迷，夜夜笙歌，有的人则追求高山流水，闲庭信步，如果你很确定不能实现财富大幅增长的话，倒不如降低自己对自由的标准，也许这样能快乐很多，毕竟生活本身就是一种过程。\n通胀的焦虑\n有一种通胀的恐惧，如 30 年前的钱放在现在不值钱，但那是在高速发展和变革时期的产物 ，30 年前的货币经验不适用于未来，过去 30 年发生太多社会变革了，观察发达国家，经济发达则币值稳定，通膨温和或低，渲染即将大通胀的可以休停一下，有小确幸的心态，你的生活水平和幸福指数不会差。\n真正的自由\n\n\n没有财富自由，只有时间自由，只有时间自由了，才是真正的自由。\n\n\n与钱有关但却关系不大。有一本书《时间贫穷》。如果有可能的话，尽量让白天也有属于自己的时间，人会健康很多。\n\n\n财务自由的庄家路线\n老牌资本主义靠战争输出生产力，我们通过人口红利输出生产力，和平崛起。现如今生产力以严重过剩，商品和服务都一样，这就会挤压出一个结果，想赚钱，就要靠存量财富转移，没有新科技，只能互相玩，财富互相转移，从分配方向看是从下往上转移。\n如索罗斯那句名言，世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧，要获得财富的做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认知之前退出游戏。\n这个世界一个残酷的事实是，认识泡沫，加入泡沫，传销泡沫，可能远比干实业实现财务自由的概率大的多。30 岁之前实现财务自由的人做对了两件事：不小心被动站上了风口（投胎好，命好）；自己参与了风口的创造（传销传的好，运好）。做不了庄和局，大概率要相信自己这辈子是不会财务自由了。\n坐庄转移\n坐庄某种程度上就是合法的抢和骗，本身转移就比创造快。在规则之内，被割者只能愿赌服输。股市是坐庄，商场是坐庄（商场甚至希望个体户能倒闭频繁些，以保持商场对顾客的新鲜度）。投机只是搭便车，从概率层面上，坐庄做局赢面要大很多，当然要求的资源整合能力也不一样。\n坐庄做局需要把一个事情搞复杂，搞得信息极不对称，这样才能收割韭菜。做生意割的都是小白和散户，普通的 2B 因为彼此信息都专业，只是在搬砖做事的层面，不太有财富自由的空间。\n各层的角色\n底层收智商税（人性的营销行为，攻击你的大脑，占有你的灵魂），底层是最接近市场化的层面，每天信息轰炸不停。所谓创业，营销都是围绕着最底层市场，因为其他层根本不屑这些繁琐的活。收智商税的核心逻辑是信息不对称，核心方法只有一个，洗脑。被洗脑者甘愿自欺欺人。\n中层找接盘侠：模仿即是接盘，盘面宰割的就是财富，中产是主要接盘对象。出国中介，伪奢侈品，学区房都算，一股模仿风一般至少能刮 10~20 年\n上层玩金融，小溪变大海。套路就两个：放贷和炒资产。\n财务自由的皮条路线\n\n要实现财务自由，对不同的客户，得拉不同的皮条\n\n下层人民安慰剂\n下层人民对社会，总有这样那样的不满，因此他们往往倾向于从集体身上寻求安慰。仿佛我们的卫星上天、航母下海，其中也有自己的一份功劳和荣光似的。兜售这一份集体的荣光，就能帮他们暂时忘却生活的苦楚，达到精神的高潮，向他们卖爱国最合适不过。\n中产先焦虑后方案\n中产的生活是受夹层气的。一方面，他们担忧上升通道关闭，另一方面，又担忧随时会滑落到底层去。担心失业供不起房贷，担心子女教育上落后，担心父母突如其来的大病，甚至担心滨海新区那场飞来横祸般的爆炸，任何突如其来的变化，都会轻松将他们击垮。向中产卖焦虑恰如其分。和底层不同，还可多贩卖一份东西：同时贩卖解决办法。贩卖解决办法也是蒙骗中产阶级，快速实现财务自由的不二法门。\n给中产贩卖的解决办法有三种：\n\n\n一夜暴富的梦想：股票，基金，炒房，比特币，区块链满天飞，忽悠的多少人蠢蠢欲动，仿佛自由的大门已在眼前敞开，争先恐后地投入到这场庞氏骗局的盛宴里去。各路理论知识大 V 们，办 live 开讲座，各路皮包公司大行其道，一个财务不自由的人，靠着给另外一些财务不自由的人，讲述财务自由的方法，而最终实现了财务自由，想想都魔幻笑话。\n\n\n贩卖知识、鸡汤、仁波切。\n\n卖知识，是通过拼搏抚平焦虑\n卖鸡汤，是通过等待抚平焦虑\n卖仁波切，一刀切断欲望之源，自然没了焦虑。相对中产先生，中产太太们更吃仁波切这套。\n\n\n\n卖移民梦，许多都市人在实现财务自由后，顿时陷入迷茫，这个时候会有热心人站出来为你指点迷津，为生活找到新的目标，那就是移民。移民美国，当然是许多一夜暴富者们的心头朱砂痣，然而美国就那么一个，已然不够我国的财务自由者移民的了。于是这些年来，各式各样的移民中介，如雨后春笋般在神州大地上生长出来，个个舌灿莲花，把外国包装成了天堂，只忽悠大伙儿掏钱，紧赶慢赶地去别的国家做二等公民。靠着兜售异国他乡的生活，也能有不菲的收入。\n\n\n我国这片神奇的土地，放眼望去，随便细分一下，都是一片绿油油的韭菜田，而每一颗韭菜入市的时候，都以为自己是一株参天大树。现在搞钱就是坑蒙拐骗，不会吹牛发不了大财，吹牛等同于画饼能力，也是一种高阶领导能力。\n赚钱之道其实很简单\n\n\n向未成年人卖电子游戏，卖娱乐[2]\n\n戏子当道，追逐潮流\n向玩游戏的卖装备（不局限于青少年）\n\n\n\n向少妇卖仁波切\n\n\n有钱有闲，迷失精神追求。\n\n\n结果上看算是对老公冷暴力的一种报复\n\n\n\n\n向老女人卖青春\n\n\n向老男人卖健康\n\n不举尿不尽，这失落感，无论多贵的「健康」产品都愿意消费\n\n\n\n向中年男人卖鄙视\n\n\n越鄙视，越来劲。你说我不行，我非要证明自己行\n\n\n没品味，立即买大牌；没地位，KTV 告诉你整个世界都是属于他的\n\n\n\n\n向上班族卖焦虑\n\n\n后浪推前浪，优胜劣汰\n\n\n向兜里有点钱的人卖通货膨胀\n\n\n\n\n向屌丝卖性暗示\n\n\n有人在屏幕上唱歌跳舞陪自己，比真女友要实惠\n\n\n他们需要的，只是一点点性暗示的甜头就够了，直播打赏走起\n\n\n\n\n向中产阶级兜售生活方式\n\n如何生活，也是一门生意。最喜欢兜售生活方式的就是车企\n\n个性生活方式是轿跑汽车，衬托你的不凡\n5+2 的生活方式是城市 SUV，（呼朋唤友）呼吸大自然的纯粹\n顾家的男人才是成功男人的标准，MPV 又成热品\n生活不止眼前的苟且，还有诗和远方，硬派越野高人一等\n精英人士需要豪华品质衬托（蓝天白云丁字裤四个圈）\n\n\n\n\n\n向看微博的人卖无聊，向读公共号的人卖鸡汤\n\n\n参考\n1.深圳市人力资源和社会保障局 深圳市2023年人力资源市场工资价位及行业人工成本信息 ↩2.凤凰网 当下中国最好的生意 ↩3.X.com 揭露财富自由之路的本质   ↩4.月光博客 在中国有多少钱才算财务自由? ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"贫穷思维与破局","url":"/%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E4%B8%8E%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%80.html","content":"家庭出身决定了突破阶层的难度，而思维决定出路，若是一身的穷人思维给&quot;保驾护航&quot;，则突破无望，将&quot;牢底坐穿&quot;。\n护驾贫穷的思维\n过度“节约”\n在任何事情上都斤斤计较的穷人，真的是很难翻身，消耗的意志力和判断力过多，就很难在其它有价值的事情上费心。节约是必要的，但务必要腾出一些时间和金钱在自我的教育和投资上，否则，为过多琐碎的事情耗费太多的时间，只会让自己在穷困里越陷越深，直至无法自拔。\n\n觉得什么东西都有价值，这样大脑里什么东西都往里放，最后啥都不重要了。真正的高手，只保留有价值的东西，生活极简，大脑是极其丰富的。\n凡是占据物理空间的东西，多数是没有价值的，你扔几次就明白了。\n一个房子，一定是越住越乱，房子里的东西也是越住越多。这种混乱程度，多少都是你内在精神的某种负担和意识存储的某种占用。这种占用，是一种精神阻塞，认知阻塞，更是一种对潜意识里看不见的世界占用。\n\n吝啬却又好攀比\n大多数穷人骨子里是吝啬的，因为生活经历，经济条件和父母的影响，不愿意为有价值的服务支付费用，喜欢廉价和免费，哪怕要付出更多的成本和代价。\n可他们却又是好攀比，爱面子的，会为面子牺牲很多，易做出不让自己被笑话却让自己很不利的选择路线上去，影响明智抉择，甚至阻挡了前进的，通往富裕的道路。\n泥潭环境的人，习惯性互相侵犯边界感，捧高踩低，占小便宜，追逐短期利益，不担事儿。\n传统保守，怕担风险\n\n最喜欢的工作是稳定没有风险的工作，哪怕是很少的风险也是他们不舒服的。很少去考虑挑战和成长，发展空间和长远，更看重的是现在，是稳定是安全。\n大多数穷人缺乏勇气，思维定势。不敢跳出那个看似安全的小圈子，最终只能原地踏步，年老时就算有心，力却不足了。\n只知量入为出，没有目标导向\n真正决定贫富差距的，不是拥有财富的多少，而是思维水平的高低\n拿买房置业这种观念财富增值的主要手段来说，很多人手里有一些存款，但距离房子首付款还有一些距离。这时候，典型的穷人思维是资源导向，首先考虑自己手头的钱够不够，等攒够了再买，结果存款能买的房子越来越小和偏。\n富人知道怎么抢跑制造差距，收割后来者，不会简单被门槛给限制住，办法是人想出来的，想到就去干（当然这则要结合周期阶段看）\n受害人心态和偏激思考\n老觉得富人是为富不仁的，只从自己的爱好，愿望和判断出发，事情稍不如意就很容易有愤怒，怨恨，委屈等负面情绪。\n反之认清社会，认知自己，反思并加以改进，否则在思维的泥淖（nào）里，你永远都无法逃离\n懒于思考\n一种懒惰时候行动上的懒惰，生活中散漫懒散。一种是思想上的懒惰，懒于思考和动脑，穷人其实在行动上并不懒的，不少还是夜以继日，加班加点的工作，可即便这样，并不能让他们有良好的生活条件，只是维持着还凑活的生活而已。穷人的懒惰，本质上还是在思维，只想着努力工作，只想着低头干事，却从来不曾抬头看天，分析和思考周围的环境，职业发展和收入，认清规律并真正采取行动加以改进。闲下来的时候，都是在看国产肥皂剧\n赌博思维\n\n容易陷入投机\n\n\n\n不做可量化的努力，而是通过赌博，怪力乱神来随机抽取他们的路。\n\n\n缺乏长期博弈观念，由于经常要面临短期生存压力，穷人的时间和资源更稀缺，难以兼顾更长远，健康，可持续的领域。\n\n\n即使突然暴富，也会缺乏长线思考的习惯而更容易被打回原形。\n热衷当下享受，消费主义\n\n拿铁效应\n\n一对夫妻习惯在每天外出时，一人买一杯拿铁喝。他们觉得这是一件非常惬意的事情。当理财顾问给他们算了账，才知道财务漏斗有多大。更可怕的是，这种财务漏斗，远不止一杯拿铁.\n\n\n每天两杯拿铁的花费是70元，一年就是25550元，30年就是76.65万元。\n\n\n生活中买衣服，点外卖，打车等一些不太引人注意到零散花费，积少成多，样样都不比拿铁少。\n\n\n富人思维不同，相信时间和积累的力量，在钱不多的时候厉行节约，然后用节约下来的钱，去帮自己赚钱，进而产生一个财富滚雪球的效应。\n为何贫穷？\n\n\n没有拿得出手的才能，忙着内耗，攀比，奶头乐，瞎晃悠，出卖劳力，低水平竞争，没时间锤炼技能，无法在任何领域做到无可替代。\n\n\n缺乏信息，更容易被规则剥削，不熟悉各种规则。筛选逻辑，礼仪，人际关系，黑话，生态链关系，在规则熟悉度上处于劣势。在成熟社交中，这些劣习很容易被识别，然后被排斥。穷人难以认知的领域更广，更容易陷入不可知论，继而习惯把无法认知的规律归结于命运。\n\n\n容错性差，财务不支持其做大量的尝试，很多成功人士可以失败八九十次直到成功，而他们只有一两次，甚至没有，成功概率就极低，且更难获得贵人相助。\n\n\n翻身要整合资源\n想翻身，想摆脱命运，首先要学的就是洞悉人性，学会利益交换，这样做事才会游刃有余。跟社会地位高的人，地位低的人懂得如何去交换。\n\n\n大部分人由于自身资源匮乏，对钱看得过重，甚至连对自己有过帮助的人都抠抠索索，算来算去。更不消说用钱换来更多价值，让别人主动帮你。\n\n\n要么就是交往过多无用社交关系，把钱用在无效社交，真到用钱时，陷入债务困境，到处借贷拆东墙补西墙，到最后积累不起任何资源，对金钱缺乏基础的认知无法驾驭，过不了价值交换这一关，最终只能是劳累一生而无所改变（空有一身本领而郁郁不得志的人在现在这个社会大有人在）。\n\n\n窍门是要学会整合资源，大部分人从小就被告诉勤劳致富，血汗钱是最踏实的，所有挣钱途径都是本本分分，对于利用关系挣钱的人心生鄙视。其实这个社会的真相和底层逻辑完全不一样，你可要知道，你就算拼命打工几百年都难以翻身。挣钱，挣大钱其实就是一个反人性的过程，说白了就是利用人性的欲望，在法律的框架内不停榨取别人的资源为己所用。商场如战场，如果只靠勤劳努力甚至一点点运气来积累财富，最终还是会凭自己的实力还回去。因为你的认知就驾驭不了金钱整合不了资源。\n不要褒奖苦难不谙世事\n说苦难能磨炼意志是因为苦难无法躲开，穷人的孩子早当家更多说的是在比较差的环境下掌握谋生技巧而已。\n能活着，但翻身困难。越是底层家庭出生的孩子，对社会规则理解的越晚，长大之后往往精力都用在努力工作，只知道埋头苦干，忽略对自己认知的提高，忽视对社会运行的洞察和理解，更不要说掌握人性。且价值观还很浅，讨厌研究人际关系，对于搞关系送礼拍马屁等极度鄙视。\n要是自身掌握核心技术，成为技术大拿也行。关键大多数人还是个普通人，没有核心竞争力，还清高不善于表达，或者喝点酒就就掏心掏肺，这就属于不谙世事了。\n社会真相\n改变命运就是要不断为各种资源积累和整合，当一个人开始走向社会，首先踏实积累经验，抽空多读书，但你个人的价值提升始终是有限的，而资源的整合是无限的。只有找到资源整合的路，才可能改变收入模式，进而积累起来进入下一阶层。\n这个社会的真相就是底层只管自己赚钱，相互攀比算计排挤，有钱人抱团取暖聚集圈子积累资源，榨取别人的价值为己所用，而这种对社会规则的本质认识，有人早早就掌握。穷人家的孩子往往在社会摸爬滚打几年也不一定能摸索出来，起步就比别人晚，随着社会的发展，资源的变幻，认知的不断深化，所取得的成就，跨入的阶层跟别人的差距会越来越大。\n个人观念改变的心理因素\n\n\n控制个人的借口：例如自己没时间，我没钱等借口，诚实地思考“对此我可以做点什么”\n\n\n成为、做、拥有；不是这样做，而是为何要做。有愿景，再实行，最后才可达成心愿，达成财务自由，有方法并不足够，还需清楚个人目标才行\n\n\n认清每种意见，同时要有独立思考能力，而非随波逐流，任由恐慌情绪控制自己。\n\n\n为自己未来制造美好的谎言：与其担心“这样做会怎样”，不如积极地强调梦想，以正面能量自我激励\n\n\n学习新词汇是免费的。改变所处的象限，首先要学懂需要的名词，从中适应这种转变\n\n\n学习对失败的豁达乐观，如果要破产的话，不如就来得严重一些。\n\n\n现金流象限\n\n\nEmployee（受雇者、雇员）：为他人工作而赚取薪金，追求安全、稳定，畏惧风险的一群人\nSelf-employed（自雇者、专业技能者、自由职业者、小企业主）：拥有某一专长而能为自己工作而赚钱，重视完美，不轻易将职责交托予人，如：医生、律师……等等。\nBusiness owner（企业所有人、雇佣者、雇主、老板）：拥有一个能够良好运转的企业系统，视风险为挑战、欢迎问题并乐于透过解决问题而致富的一群，信奉以别人的时间(OTHER PEOPLE’S TIME，OPT)以及别人的金钱(OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY，OPM)为他们工作，收入来源是企业的收益\nInvestor（投资者）：让钱为他们工作，收入来源是各种投资，用钱来产生出更多的钱，即是“富爸爸”一书中所强调“让金钱为你工作”。\n\n身处E、S两种象限，无法令自己达至财务自由（你是一个人玩游戏，去对付一个团队）。我们应该透过成为B、I象限，才能达到目标。在此基础上，穷爸爸富爸爸作者进而提出“B-I三角形”理念。\n致富的关键：B-I三角形\n\nB「企业家」健全架构三要素\n\n由创业家负责\n三者都不能瘸腿，否则内部5要素就难以稳住阵脚，事业经营就会陷入困境\n\n\n使命（Mission）：企业宗旨和理念，如提供最好最廉价的产品等，是企业价值观核心所在，打造精神使命和商业使命。每个人在生命中都拥有自己的使命。\n团队（Team）：组成公司的成员，擅长所属岗位工作的人才。拥有一支专业分工合作的梦想伙伴\n领导力（Leadership）：自己在领导，管理团队的能力，建立规则打造边界，让人们在其中安心工作。身具使命感，销售力，领导力，经营力。接受市场/团队的回馈做出正面改变。\n\n一个领导者的角色应是有远见的人，啦啦队长和老板的综合体\n领导者的职责是使最出色的人脱颖而出，而不是让自己成为最出色的人\n\n\n\n专业运作五要素\n\n由专才负责\n\n\n\n现金流（Cachflow）：一个可以为公司带来稳定收入来源的获利机器，现金流就好比身体的血液和汽车的燃油流动，要学会如何控制管理现金流。要记住利润和现金流的区别\n\n\n沟通（Communication），对客户的例如销售技巧等，对内部例如上司与下属可彼此了解情况。要有效的与金钱沟通从学习金钱语言开始。沟通和现金流之间的周期往往是 6 周，越善于沟通，与越多人沟通，越有利于你的现金流。\n\n外部沟通：推销、市场营销、客户服务、与投资者的沟通、公共关系\n内部沟通：与团队分享成功，定期召开员工会议，定期与顾问沟通，人力资源政策\n\n\n\n系统（System）：公司运作所必须的制度。事业成功关键之一就是了解有效率的系统。系统越好对人的依赖就越小。\n\n\n法律（Legal）：除了透过合法方式，减少应付税项，还有例如版权维护，免责条款等需要，在规范下尽情的伸展发挥。\n\n\n产品（Product）：产品质量，以及它是否迎合市场。但这点在B-I中不如其它部分重要，很多人都能做出比麦当劳更好的🍔，但没人能构建出比麦当劳更好的企业系统。\n\n\n学习B-I三角运作的3个方法\n\n\n扩展视野\n除了专业知识外，创业者必须了解其他相关领域与市场，如饼干公司的老板不能只具有烘焙饼干的专才，还必须学习包装与营销\n\n\n创业前先积累经验\n进入企业工作，目的在于好好观察企业的实际运作，如到麦当劳工作，借机了解企业的协调与营运。\n\n\n从旁观察\n观察某家企业，试想如果你是领导人，从产品到设计，行销等作业流程，该怎么规划。\n\n\n资产与负债\n穷爸爸富爸爸作者罗伯特认为：只有带来稳定现金流的东西，才算资产。能真正让人达到财务自由的，不是工作，也不是金钱，而是能带来源源不断现金流的资产。\n资产就是将钱放进你口袋的东西，负债则是把你口袋的钱拿走的东西。资产和负债不同的现金流向，会造成不同的财富结果。\n\n穷人只通过工作获取收入，通过消费将挣来的钱花出去，没任何资产。\n中产通过工作获取收入，再购买一些他们认为是资产的负债，然后通过偿还负债，花光他们的钱，同样没有资产。\n而富人通过购买资产来产生收入，再用收入来购买资产，循环下去最终获得大量财富，实现无需工作也能不断获得收入的财务自由状态。\n\n房产必定等于资产？\nNo！如房屋透过出租，抵消成本费用，并产生出业主的正向现金流，才可算是“资产”。不会产生正向现金流收入的房屋，充其量只是负债。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"赚不到认知范围外的钱","url":"/%E8%B5%9A%E4%B8%8D%E5%88%B0%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E8%8C%83%E5%9B%B4%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E9%92%B1.html","content":"\n不是不知道这句话，而是这几天自发蒙上心头，感触到了深深的沉闷压抑。\n\n你所赚的每一分钱都是你对这个世界认知的变现，或者是短时运气\n你所亏的每一分钱都是因为对这个世界认知有缺陷，当你的财富大于认知时，社会有100种方法收割你，直到认知和财富相匹配\n\n当人的智商与财富不匹配时，多余的资金就会以各种方式回流市场\n差距扩大是自然律动\n身处深圳这座城市，未体察到财富流动之水，埋头干活，普普通通，被甩下/收割就是因为进步的不够快\n人到中年，金钱社会，方知自己活得简单，活得肆意\n\n这是一个不进则退，拼成长速度的时代，这是一个彰显选择大于努力的时代，这是一个追求效率多过公平的时代\n这段话为什么蒙上心头呢，或许也片段受了《历史的教训》这本书的作用。\n\n人生来就是自由而不平等的，这在生物学层面就是确定性的，能做到法律和教育机会平等已经非常不易。经济水平稍下的人，渴求平等，水平稍上的则渴求自由，最终总是自由胜出，才智高超的人得偿所愿。\n\n我本来以为自己属于思考认知能力敏捷的人，虽然经济水平在深圳也许在前10%之内，但仍然感觉深深的被碾压，萌生自我挫败，不是自己算不上努力，而是自己不重视机会效率，就其而言，还是不够聪明。一个立体化聪明的人，才是一个生活的强者吧，活得体悟宽泛。\n认知的加强\n\n靠实践\n靠交流（与人交友，与书交友）\n\n牛马观\n小时候不懂，为何一根细小的绳子，可拴住一头牛，让其在田间辛勤劳作一生。现如今，一把无形枷锁，把你困在方寸之地。牛和你，都有致命的弱点，牛鼻子太软，怕痛；你人生太短，怕穷。牛的一辈子，只为了青草，你用尽一生，只图个温饱，空有人间自由身，却非人间自由人。\n对于大多数普通人，社会现在设计的本来就是你存不到钱，老美等国家也是一样的，社会稍微存款多一点，那房子就涨价一波吧。为什么？因为你存钱多了，谁去干活，总要有人去干活啊，你有10年积蓄，你会去干活吗？都财富自由请问谁去做事，普通人不要指望自己可以存很多钱，商家会想办法掏空你的口袋的，最好你还欠银行一些钱，每年你可以还得起的，这样你会拼命去工作，这样你会加班，你不敢辞职，再委屈也会996，这样你一家人会疯狂的工作，会调动最多的劳动力。\n换一种戏谑的视角：钱只不过是印出来的（虽不是这么儿戏）。\n力吹美股要当心\n\n大家都知道一个村的狗会接力叫，虽然都在叫，你要小心一点，因为只有第一条狗知道为什么叫。\n\n对多数散户来说，美股和大A实际都是判了死刑，但美股和大A两个诈骗中心，有什么区别？\n\n\n美股是每天都给你吃断头饭，但当天不一定行刑。因为它在钓大鱼，你在里面吃挺爽，它在等你卖房叫老婆孩子叫上亲戚一起来买，行刑的时候手起刀落特别快，一年可以拿走你10年的利润，一晚上可以收走你所有的本金和利润，让你损失惨重。\n\n\n大A诈骗中心，这里是判了死刑+无期徒刑，你在牢里老死，这个牢房周围山清水秀，每天让你出去放风，看看外面的美好。但定期从你身上割一块肉，短时间内死不了，又给你推回牢里了，给你抹上这世上最好的金疮药，等你肉长出来后再拉你一刀。\n\n\n在美股的交易者长期欢乐，死得特别痛快。所以你在自媒体上很少看到美股的差评；但大A的交易者每天都在牢里拿着手机，在自媒体上发表骂街的言论。可以说一个是酒池肉林，一个是空乏其身。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"跳到你的高维空间","url":"/%E8%B7%B3%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.html","content":"\n\n不要做在褶皱纸面上行进被推得东倒西歪的虫\n\n升维的能力\n自然规律在高维空间表述会变得更为简单和优美。\n在近几个世纪的数学和物理学都在高维领域得到了绝佳的扩展和应用。高维离科学那么近，离生活又那么远。生活中虽体味不明显，但不代表这个不重要。\n我们不能看见高维，就像我们是水里的鱼看不见水一样，只有岸上的生物（更高维度空间生活）才能体察到水的存在。另外一个方面，其余的维度可能蜷缩在普朗克尺度上，成为类似小球的形状，以人类当前的观察能力，尚无法观察到这个尺度范围。\n大家都知道欧几里得几何，但其描述的完美形状在现实世界中基本不存在，我们的自然界中没有什么地方能使我们看到平坦的理想化的欧几里得几何图形，山脉，海浪，云彩和漩涡都是不完美的原型，三角形和正方形，而是以无穷多样的方式表现出的弯弯扭扭的弯曲物体。连我们的几大行星都是螺旋形绕着太阳在疯狂赶路。\n\n科学巨人的接力\n黎曼几何\n高斯作为黎曼的导师，其实也对欧几里得几何学持有深刻而广泛的保留意见，但其非常保守，不愿意与人争论，有自己在这方面的研究发展，但不愿意拿出来。黎曼在做非欧几何的探索时，还在帮物理学做一些电学方面的实验，好挣些收入糊口。\n当时，大家都知道电和磁有相关性，黎曼直观地把电和磁认为是同一种力的某种表现形式，这是电磁一体化的第一小步。一方面，他又在按导师要求准备一个关于“几何基础”的重要公开演讲，在这种交叉情况下，他提出一种惊人的“力”的含义。自牛顿开始，科学家认为力是两个远距离物体间的瞬间相互作用，称为超距作用。\n黎曼认为“力”是几何的结果，类比一个生活在二位褶皱平面上的虫，其肯定认为其前进的世界是平坦的，因为他们的身体也将被弄皱，而不会注意到他们的世界被扭曲了。当运动时，他们将觉得有一种神秘的看不见的“力”在阻止他们沿直线运动，每当他们的身体越过纸的一道皱纹，他们就会被推的左右晃动。\n黎曼推断，电，磁，引力都是我们的三维宇宙在看不见的第四维中起皱所致。因此，力本身并不存在，它只是几何畸变引起的明显结果。（大家现在看，这个设想也足够大胆，超出一般人的常识范围）\n黎曼的度规张量使他建立了一种强有力的工具来描述具有任意曲率的任何维空间，但他不知道度规张量遵循的精确方程，即他不知道什么使纸张起皱。但其先进的数学超过了19世纪相对落后的物理认识。为了使物理学家赶上数学家，我们必须等待有一个世纪。\n物理追上数学\n而后爱因斯坦的发现，就不用赘述了。\n在大学里，爱因斯坦证实了他的才艺，知道光可以用法拉第的电磁场描述。这些场遵循麦克斯韦的场方程，他发现麦克斯韦方程不允许静止的冻结的波，事实上也证明，不管你怎么辛苦的追赶光束，这束广总是以同样的速度c前进。在麦克斯韦场方程基础上，得出了狭义相对论。\n当讨论宇宙的归宿时，某一种说法我们可以通过高维逃跑。在宇宙创生后的瞬间，四维宇宙以牺牲六维宇宙为代价膨胀，我们的姊妹宇宙已收缩到普朗克尺度。当我们的四维宇宙塌缩时，我们的姊妹宇宙可能是开放的，使得维际旅行再一次变得可能。\n当前物理学已经重新进入瓶颈期在举步维艰。电影《星际穿越》里设想了那核心的秘密正在视界之外（黑洞中心），让人难以窥见终极奥义。\n非理性领域抽象\n\n如上回顾了那些科技史上让人精心赞叹的历史\n\n科学可以在高维得到完美简单的推广解释，人类社会，也在某些理论模型下，也能够解释那反复重现的历史模型与大事件，显得非常的有意思，例如人口的马尔萨斯陷阱，可以用来解释科学改造人类社会之前的历史路径，当在这种更高维度看问题的理论指引下，循环往复出现的问题，不再那么模糊不清，没有那么多旁枝末节，跌跌撞撞。\n知识\n广泛经历是一个途径（还要勤于思考）\n深度研究也是一个途径，这条路更准，因广度知识通常是深度研究的副产品。包括熟读历史其实也是要到一定深度的。\n情绪\n人类除了有知识，人类还有情绪，是一个活在错综复杂情绪场的动物，学会管理自己的情绪（情商），也是一个非常关键的升级能力。\n世上多少人失败，不是因为不懂业务（能力），而是控制不了自己的情绪和欲望。\n情商论中有四个阶段。\n\n我是世界的中心\n我在世界的边缘\n我在世界之外\n我无处不在\n\n大部分人在1~2阶段中反复流转，当你进入第三阶，能在世界之外，人生也就更快乐了，或许你离改变世界的更大范围的成功就不远了。因为你已经跳到了更高的维度\n周期\n炒股活动大家都知道赔的人多，赚的人少，又看似一个复杂的迷局，每一天都有无数升升跌跌，但又在大周期里涨涨落落。只有成为高维度的玩家（智商），才能成为周期的赢家。\n赌博式的经济活动如炒股，控制自己的情绪，才能掌握成功的主动权。大周期虽在，但小时间跨度内仍然是波云诡谲的，总有黑天鹅的出现。输赢都控制在10%以内。不管输到10%，或者赢到10%，你都学会坚决离场，即使在最顺的时候，也不要纠缠。\n在这个世上，能在赢时退场的人，才是真正的赢家。\n读懂大周期，是超级能力（知识），辅以在一段段的小时间周期里修心（情绪），不断磨练升级。\n结语\n努力跳到你的更高维度，不要做在褶皱纸面上行进被推得东倒西歪的虫。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["物理"]},{"title":"身份证号码规则","url":"/%E8%BA%AB%E4%BB%BD%E8%AF%81%E5%8F%B7%E7%A0%81%E8%A7%84%E5%88%99.html","content":"\n地址码\n省份码\n\n\n\n华北\n北京\n天津\n河北\n山西\n内蒙\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n11\n12\n13\n14\n15\n\n\n\n\n东北\n辽宁\n吉林\n黑龙江\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n21\n22\n23\n\n\n\n\n\n\n华东\n上海\n江苏\n浙江\n安徽\n福建\n江西\n山东\n\n\n编码\n31\n32\n33\n34\n35\n36\n37\n\n\n华中/华南\n河南\n湖北\n湖南\n广东\n广西\n海南\n\n\n\n编码\n41\n42\n43\n44\n45\n46\n\n\n\n西南\n重庆\n四川\n贵州\n云南\n西藏\n\n\n\n\n编码\n50\n51\n52\n53\n54\n\n\n\n\n西北\n陕西\n甘肃\n青海\n宁夏\n新疆\n\n\n\n\n编码\n61\n62\n63\n64\n65\n\n\n\n\n台湾\n台湾\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n71\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n港澳\n香港\n澳门\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n81\n82\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n区县码\n每个城市有100个区号可用\n\n01~20 代表市辖区，县级市等\n21-80 代表县，旗林区等\n81~99 代表省辖县级市\n\n顺序码\n表示同一地址码范围内，出生人编订的顺序号，奇数分给男性，偶数分给女性。\n\n3位顺序码最多容纳1000人，500男，500女。举例编号005的男性其前面有2个出生，分别是001，003。\n超出500男/女则分不到合法的身份号码。这个问题概率很低。根据我国人口现状，历年人口统计，单区县一天出生人口达不到500个单性。\n\n疫情前2018中国每天出生人口4.17w左右，全国有1347个县级行政单位，那么平均下来，同日出生的新生儿数量约为31人。（历史人口出生最高峰是1963年的全国2959.3w，也只是 18 年的 2 倍不到）\n北京市20 年一年新生儿数量（户籍人口）是10万，平均到每一天才273人，更别说单独一个区县了\n实在当天不够用，编码生日提前一天或者延后一天，没多大影响的；或强行分配到邻区去占配额\n太多人口的区县则要单独建市改行政区划了，一个城市有 100 个区号可用，一个城市的每一天可以最大容纳：100x1000=10万新生人口。即便是我国的超一线城市：北京上海，也不可能出现一天出生十万人口的情况。\n\n\n\n区县人口之最\n\n\n中国人口最多的区县是苏州昆山市，县级市，七普人口 209w，排名中国第一。\n\n\n连大城市市辖区也看的话，第一名是上海浦东，面积 1210 平方公里，常住人口 568w，接近上海人口1/4\n\n\n24 年区县常住人口 Top25\n\n\n\n排名\n区县\n常住人口\n\n\n\n\n1\n上海-浦东\n578.58 万\n\n\n2\n深圳-宝安\n456.54 万\n\n\n3\n深圳-龙岗\n409.81 万\n\n\n4\n广州-白云\n369.56 万，占广州 20%\n\n\n5\n佛山-南海\n367.54 万，占佛山近 4 成\n\n\n6\n北京-朝阳\n343.9 万，占北京 15.8%\n\n\n7\n佛山-顺德\n323.78 万，占佛山1/3\n\n\n8\n北京-海淀\n312.5 万，占北京1/7\n\n\n9\n广州-番禺\n284.53 万，占广州 14.13%\n\n\n10\n上海-闵行\n271.66 万\n\n\n11\n深圳-龙华\n251.84万\n\n\n12\n重庆-渝北\n228.92万\n\n\n13\n北京-昌平\n227万\n\n\n14\n上海-宝山\n226.39万\n\n\n15\n广州-天河\n224.31万\n\n\n16\n郑州-金水\n221.64万\n\n\n17\n杭州-萧山\n216.4万\n\n\n18\n苏州-昆山市\n214.85万\n\n\n19\n西安-雁塔\n212.91万\n\n\n20\n泉州-晋江市\n209.1万\n\n\n21\n揭阳-普宁市\n203.43万\n\n\n22\n天津-滨海新区\n202.22万\n\n\n23\n北京-丰台\n201.1万\n\n\n\n青岛-黄岛\n200.78万\n\n\n25\n南京-江宁\n199.16万\n\n\n\n校验码算法\n采用ISO7064：1983，MOD11-2校验算法\nfunction checkIdCard(idCard) &#123;    //校验位字符对应的数字    var checkNum= [&#x27;1&#x27;,&#x27;0&#x27;,&#x27;X&#x27;,&#x27;9&#x27;,&#x27;8&#x27;,&#x27;7&#x27;,&#x27;6&#x27;,&#x27;5&#x27;,&#x27;4&#x27;,&#x27;3&#x27;,&#x27;2&#x27;];    //权重    var weight = [7,9,10,5,8,4,2,1,6,3,7,9,10,5,8,4,2];    //校验位    var checkCode = idCard.substring(17);    //前17位数字    var idCard17=idCard.substring(0,17);    //计算校验位    var sum=0;    for (var i=0;i&lt;17;i++)&#123;        sum += idCard17[i]*weight[i];        &#125;    var mod=sum%11;    //校验    return checkNum[mod] == checkCode;&#125;\n参考\n1.中国政府网 县及县以上行政区划代码（截止2010年12月31日） ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"软件哲学","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html","content":"\n希伯来最著名的故事或许是\n\n一位异教徒来到Rabbi Shammal【夏马尔】面前和他说：“要我改变信仰只有一个条件：那就是你在我单脚站立时教完Torah【'tɔ:rɑ:，希伯来文：תורה，意思是“教导、训诲”，圣经旧约之首五卷-律法书，通称摩西五经】的所有内容。”Rabbi Shammal将其赶走。\n然后他就来到Rabbi Hillel【希莱尔】（一个令其改变信仰的人）面前。Hillel告诉他，“勿对人做出连自己都憎恶之事，这就是Torah的全部；其它都是注释，你自己去学习。”\n\nRabbi Shammal有赶走这个异教徒的充足理由\n\n任何简化都只会误导。编写优秀的软件要比做出可靠的设计更复杂，细节就是魔鬼。\n\nRabbi Hillel没有赶走他也有充足的理由\n\n理解最本质的思想为接下来的所有细节提供了一个上下文关系。书籍多只给出一个框架性理解，其余的内容都融入到案例研究中。\n\n“单脚”注释了此种哲学\n确认你已理解问题，由小型的有才干的团队来实现解决方案，并且让你的客户告诉你如何改进它。这就是全部，其它的都是注释。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT哲学"]},{"title":"软件工程-理念与修习","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B-%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%AE%E4%B9%A0.html","content":"\n『简约主义』\n异教徒说：能在单脚站立期间讲完 Torah （旧约之首第 5 卷）所有内容，就改变信仰！\n先知说：勿对别人做出连自己都憎恶之事，其它都是注释，你自己学习！\n理解最本质的思想为接下来所有的细节提供了一个上下文关系，初始的动机（Basic Idea）最为核心。\n理念篇\n可维护的重要性\n\n面向维护设计\n\n\nKISS原则+文档清晰\n\n\n系统的优化迭代与做新，会走到 $6 / 4$ 的比例上\n\n\n\n价值反馈提速\n\n商业模式/产品规划$\\rightarrow$需求分析$\\rightarrow$方案设计$\\rightarrow$开发$\\rightarrow$测试$\\rightarrow$上线发布$\\rightarrow$运营\n若软件生命周期是一个链路的话，过去 10 年软件行业在通过创新和实践在不断的加速反馈环。\n\n\n\n软件工程直面的问题：复杂性\n\n需求本身就是复杂的。编写优秀的软件要比做出可靠的设计更复杂（细节就是魔鬼）\n\n\n功能需求+非功能需求+约束条件\n\n\n非功能需求：性能、吞吐能力、故障恢复、兼容性、弹性、可用性\n\n\n约束条件：技术熟悉度、容量「并发服务能力、系统存储量」、成本、失败容忍度\n\n\n最大要对付的就是复杂性。面对复杂性做架构选择，有几个问题要先回答：\n\n熟悉的技术栈（我是谁）\n产品的发展阶段和规模带来的压力如何（我在哪）\n技术复杂度是首要问题了么？（我要干嘛）\n\n技术属性（搜索、视频）\n\n\n\n\n回应好了这些问题，才能做出更匹配的架构设计，保证初级阶段的成功\n\n复杂性的解药：拿来主义\n\n\n系统开发中常碰到险恶(Wicked)问题：只有通过解决或部分解决才能被明确的问题。\n\n\n分析你所能找到的所有类型系统、设计、代码\n\n\n经验表明：系统中 80%的部分应能找到参照系，能很大程度降低设计的难度和风险\n\n\n全面分析是最棘手的 – 需求和技术上\n面对重构同样是这样的原则：80%能工作，20%很烂，大部分改动奔着的目标是改进这 20%，却想推倒重来。控制住自己解决最核心的问题，比推倒重来要好。\n高质量软件的目标：面向维护的设计\n\n最小的复杂度：避免聪明但不易理解的设计（KISS），才能经得起进化考验\n易于维护：软件的生命周期更多在维护阶段\n松散耦合\n可扩展性：面向未来设计（对变更进行隔离）\n可重用性：为团队积累做出贡献\n高扇入，低扇出：力求封装被最大需求，最小依赖\n层次性：力求在任意层次观察系统，层次间互相隔离\n标准技术：力求引入最少的新技术\n\n做好设计有哪些要求\n\n事业开阔，避免造轮子\n难题解决能力\n行业经验带来的直觉和预见性\n庖丁解牛的切分和设计能力\n\n松耦合\n清晰并行\n不过度设计\n\n\n\n\n高阶的要求是一步到位的能力或计划路线图\n\n警惕过早的优化\n\n发于 1974 年的《The Art of Computer Programming》: premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.\n\nwe should forget about small efficiencies,say about 97% of the time: premature optimization is the root of all evil.Yet we should not pass up our opportunities in that critical 3%\nThe real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times;\n思维武器\n\n\n抽象：从概念提炼和概念学习中锻炼\n\n\n简化\n\n\n关注要素：要的是什么，子模块是什么\n\n\n隐藏细节\n\n\n\n\n分层：人类世界亦如此演化而来\n\n\n分治：Divide and Conquer，复杂问题的规模也来自于分形的组合，包括自然界的进化，也可以看作是分形和变异（大量无方向的并行开发试错）的结合。比大量的并行试错反馈环更好的机制，你能找到不？\n\n\n演化：尤其直面客户的互联网系统，三分设计，七分演化\n\n\n组织惯例与公共建设：干干净净也是组织惯例建设的一种\n\n\n\n设计上的完美并不是没有东西可以加了，而是没东西可以减。\n只有简单的体系，才能经得起进化\n\nKISS 放宽到哲学领域就是奥卡姆剃刀\nCTO 要求再进一步\n\n深刻的产品意识\n量化的技术意识\n精细的成本意识\n团队管理意识\n\n这是对架构师的一种更高要求，因为纯做技术的人，是做不了CTO的。喜欢做技术且又能把技术做好做深，当然可以一直做技术喜欢技术的同时，又有很好的视野，格局和情商，可以涉足其它领域。\n让正确的事情相继发生!\n从熵的角度看软件生命周期\n\n没有绝对的静止\n\n\n软件开发是减少混乱度（熵减）的过程\n软件维护是提高混乱度（熵增）的过程，是一个退化到非稳态的过程\n现实世界的混乱无序，投射到Cyber宇宙就是不断变换的需求\n架构设计如何适应（隔离）改变，是一个架构的关键特征\n\n最熟练的维护工作，也是放缓系统退化到非稳态的过程热力学第二定律（熵增）：随时间进行，一个孤立体系中的熵不会减小。\n熵的乱炖与惊喜\n热力学领域能被宏观观测的物理量非常有限，热量，压力，体积、温度。玩来玩去，都玩的差不多了，大家就开始务虚，进行理想实验，加减乘除，排列组合，只要单位合适，造出很多概念。一段时间内，统计物理横行，一大堆进行理想实验造出的参数被证实，熵这玩意跟系统的所有状态数是亲戚，且是相当直系的亲戚，log(所有状态数)。因为其统计解释的直观性，所以被推广到很多的领域，在信息论中，也是跨界的神作\n信息熵\n在数学上，负无穷和正无穷都是极限态，甚至接近一回事。信息熵的正无穷(说法太多，混乱)和负无穷（完全没资料）等同于差不多。\n举个例子，资治通鉴记周朝某年，赵伐魏。\n\n这么一条消息，你编外星人在齐国横行霸道抢掠民女都没关系\n鲁国天天吃喝玩乐，花花世界，事情太多，版本多多，算了，不记也罢。\n\n修习篇\n重构\n\n丢弃代码中的坏味道，做到干干净净\n重构的第一步就是建立一个有效的测试机制，好的测试机制可帮助重构\n不仅代码要重构，文档一样要鲜活和进化跟上\n\n设计模式\n\nOO流行起来后，解决特定问题（创建型，结构型，行为型）较好的编程实践总结。OO之前，大家用宏也耍的飞起。目标是低耦合的情况下隔离变化。\n\nOO使得封装理解起来更自然；继承使得关系看起来更自然；\n多态真正提供了应对变化的最强大能力\n\n\n它是一个 95 后（诞生于 1995 年）。与其同年的事物：Java和Javascript诞生，win95发布（干倒中文Dos系统），九五计划提出，64k专线接入美国，镭射录像厅爆发，PC躺在要脱鞋进入的空调间，新世纪福音战士播出，京九铁路全线贯通，提出计划经济往市场经济根本转变，粗放型向集约型转变。\n\nJava一直在浪潮里，Applet，JavaEE, Android。语法进步缓慢，但Java平台生态非常好。且在大型软件所需的要素：确定的理念，强依赖管理，整洁的接口，抽象化，优秀的文档工具方面表现突出\n\n\n设计模式在国内开始有讨论，差不多在02年。为啥，加入世贸，国内还要用IT武装自己提升效率。当时国内的开发理念与国外有8-10年的差距，IT化水平差距更大\n\n好在我国人多码农多，追赶的特别快，除去基础能力，在互联网界的应用追赶到差不多只有一年差距的，部分超级应用已经赶超西方。\nweb开发当前疯狂攻城略地的时候，设计模式又没有那么热火朝天了\n\n\n\n领域设计模式\n\n对特定领域问题进行抽象挖掘，形成解决方案套件\n积累领域经验\n\n独孤四剑\n\npartition everything:how do you eat an elephant\nasync everywhere : good things comes to those who wait\nautomate everything\nremember everything fails: be prepared\n\n精进：持续学习\n\n领域太过专业化，一段时间后，可能会发现自己的专业已经陈旧了\n除了把工作中用到的技术掌握好，还应学习其它的语言和平台\n至少要掌握两门以上的编程语言，才能相互印证，融汇贯通（现在单一编程语言几乎干不成任何事）\n追求卓越，让事情变得更好，而不是追求完美\n\n生活的召唤，永远是我们前进中最好的原动力\n视野扩宽非常有必要。每天就面对那么几个人，经理就是监工，客户就是傻叉，每个角色都被自己设定好了，就把自己的范围设窄了，这就不好突破了\n结合自己的学习风格\n弄清楚自己属于哪一类，与自己的学习风格配套努力，才能得到好的更好的效果\n结语\n泰山不拒细壤，故能成其高\n江河不拒细流，故能成其深\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["职涯"]},{"title":"软件的体重","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%93%E9%87%8D.html","content":"\n塞班的失控\nNokia的没落，是科技史上的大败局事件。除了大家熟知的战略决策层面问题，讲个小故事，瞅瞅还有哪些背后的玩意儿导致了它的帝国覆灭。\n\n故事来了：\n\n一位Nokia的退休主管讲：我有一部E71，在手机锁机状态下，会弹出个对话框盖住提示信息。我问：“能把这个弄小5毫米吗？”。\n他们研究了一下手机代码说“找不到那行可以将它缩小5毫米的代码，手机上有2000w行代码（2000w行的代码量已经接近windows xp），找到它是不可能的。”\n仅仅改动一个对话框尺寸都会如此，说明事情已经到了失控的边缘。\n软件的体重\n软件的体重就是代码量。现代软件工程的各种规则，框架和工具保证我对代码的控制能力。与此同时，实践的越多，你会更加意识到方法的界限：没有魔术可以减小真正的复杂度。\n\n能反映复杂度的代码量增加一倍，维护成本要增加很多倍。而一个开发好的系统，可能开发人员1个，后续的维护人员占据就要到1-1.5个之间，亦或更多，除非你说旧系统砍掉或不管，否则不断的演化就是人力黑洞(软件开发是一场长跑，你是胖子当然跑起来比较费力，软件的维护成本通常占总成本的40%-80%)。\n当然阻碍Nokia翻身的还是其作为曾经成功的公司所培养起来的现代官僚主义。很多公司都不能幸免，包括大型的互联网公司，也是不断在于这样的文化搏斗，斗不过就危险了，这些组织上的癌症要是打不过你，也就没有行业新旧的兴替了。\n从类比生态系统的进化来说，组织患上病症是正常不过的事情，是衰老的天命。只是某些公司的治理比较聪明有效，是超级赛亚人，青春期长一些。天才是超级赛亚人，不常出，故珍贵。\n感想\n大家多数时候是在用工具工作，对工具的生存历史都不太关心，觉得作为从业人员，缺少一点点这方面的八卦精神也是不好的，或许说明不是真正的热爱，咱也看到了八卦起历史来，微观层面总有精彩故事。：）\n教训经验\n\n\n再次重申KISS圣经\n\n\n软件开发是长跑，不断锻炼自己，保持一个轻体重，或通过SOA好好治理吧\n\n\n兴衰是常事，看《浪潮之巅》你能懂更多\n\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT哲学"]},{"title":"软件的信心","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83.html","content":"\n要上线的系统你坐先\n\n心头之问\n\n面对功能强大、日益复杂，给人顶级体验的”过山车“系统，其安全保障也是非常之事，开发者对代码的信心来自哪里？\n在给”过山车“添砖加瓦交付的时候，你有如下经历吗？\n\n上线也像坐过山车\n你亲手打造的过山车，自己是否亲身体验过？\n是否对测试同事说：你们先上去坐坐看，遇到问题再下来找我？\n\n当自己不敢坐，代码要靠测试老师兜底，就说明工作还有待提升空间。反之说明，你作为一个开发者你已经相当优秀了。\n单测篇\n如何建立对自己代码的信心\n借外力\n启动前做充分检查：代码评审、让资深人员 (老法师) 帮把关，及时发现问题\n练内功\n零部件测试（单元测试），保证每一部分在各种场景下都可以正常工作或异常处理得当\n对单测的看法\n质疑声\n\n常有的声音，尤其在业务变化快的互联网行业：\n\n有必要做吗？\n做到多少合适？\n现在没做不也挺好吗\n\n实际遇到线上问题需要消耗多少工时？保守估计下面一套下来几个人日是底线值了。\n\n找bug，修bug上线\n修复数据问题\n复盘闭环规避 (文书工作)\n\n所以常说：发现的越晚，修复耗时越久。编码阶段分钟级、功能测试小时级，发布后就不可控了。【缺陷发现越到交付流程后端，修复成本就越高】\n定性来看\n写单测抱怨耗时多、可用维护也耗时，但集成测试阶段跟踪调试问题，解决时效被拖长。\n单测高覆盖的长周期好处\n每次代码改动后可提前发现改动引发的其它关联问题，软件质量更有保障，节省后续同事的精力，拉长周期看效率更高\n单测的FIRST原则\n\n看看就好，完全犯不着记\n\n\nFAST，快速\nIndependent，独立\nRepeatable，可重复\nSelf-Validating，自我验证\nThorough/Timely，彻底、及时\n\n现状及特点\n现状\n\n从行业特点看：传统行业软件（ERP，CRM等）单测覆盖率至少达到80%以上，互联网行业较低，一般低于50%，大部分没有\n从软件特点看：用户量较大的软件（工具类，中间件等）基础软件覆盖率相对较高，80%以上，需求变化快的业务类软件较低\n从开发习惯看：国外开发的软件较高，多数开源软件覆盖率至少60%以上。国内开发者多数未养成习惯\n\n例如我所在的项目环境全量代码单测分支覆盖率普遍看低于30%，质量主要靠测试兜底。这还是在考核变更代码行单测覆盖率的情况下，很多考核流于表面，只看覆盖率，不看通过率。我随处可见运行报告中，用例通过率只有50%，但依然统计生成行覆盖率，而不是中止。另外用例普遍断言宽松，实际并不能达到改动自测的效果。\n痛点\n\n\n开发者需投入更多工作量：单测代码行数与应用功能代码至少1:1，复杂应用则更高。随着单测覆盖率的提升，每提升1%，都需要大量的用例。因为后续用例至少有80%甚至90%以上的代码运行路径是重叠的，最坏的情况是增加一个用例，只多了一个覆盖\n\n\n存量代码数量庞大：见上一条\n\n\n单测代码容易失效：单测代码需要持续维护，当业务需求引发的失效要么忽略，要么删除。如此情况下，很难维持一个较高的覆盖率指标。\n\n\n归根到底，就是成本问题。\n这道菜原始原料是 开发者持续投入大量精力(克制牺牲一定要见到实际好处才可持续，但这条维度在任何公司都排不到第一位考核上，它不是直接第一线的结果指标)\n自动化解药\n静态代码分析\n单测自动化以前主流是靠静态代码分析，找出代码隐藏的错误和缺陷，有EvoSuite，Squaretest等\n\n\n此类产品生成的单测行覆盖率一般可达到30%左右，代码越复杂效果越差\n\n\n好处是安装即可用，还支持多种开发平台：idea，eclipse，命令行等\n\n\n缺陷是：生成代码质量不高，覆盖率不高。一些有丰富业务语义的信息，难通过静态分析生成有效的用例代码\n\n\n大模型\n代码大模型也是一条路，但当前阶段没看到大范围铺开，其实飘出的尚未足够革命/实用的味道，在业务语义丰富的方法场景生成效果也不可用\n\n每次生成的结果都理解一致无法保证\n生成的结果需人工修订，断言需大量人工工作，使其可用\n无法解决系统间集成代码的自测验证用例覆盖\n\n录制回放\n将录制数据转化为单元测试用例，获得更加丰富的业务数据，而不是通过一些策略生产数据\n此种方案有一个口实弊病：违反了及时性原则，应该在写代码时/提测前完成啊，后录制已经晚了。是的，它不是理论上完美的。\n优势\n\n\n存量代码收效大，能快速提升覆盖率\n\n\n新代码，开发本地运行程序自测，录制，而后基于生成的用例，复制，调整快速扩充，也能保证及时性\n\n\n接口层级用例录制回放\n\n调和这碗意见不一致的羹汤\n\n函数执行逻辑中通常包含 普通函数，外部系统调用两类。其中外部系统调用也含数据库操作。当下微服务时代，系统间的交付变得日益复杂，过度依赖外部服务很难保障用例执行成功。\n当前单测框架多采用了mock技术，屏蔽外部服务的依赖，如mockito、powermock、spock等。通过接口录制生成单测，帮开发者回顾找到代码里的bug，通过自动化技术建立单测的信心，软件的信心。\n方案优劣势\n\n\n正：用例编码量较少，实现速度快，业务执行路径被测试到，单测覆盖率指标不受影响\n\n\n反：用例失败场景定位较慢\n\n\n学究派肯定会有疑问？这样做跟集成测试阶段自动化用例有啥区别？\n是的，从效果上看是一样的，只不过将运行前移到了开发阶段。\n如何做？\n每个用例方法对应一个Json/自定义格式文件[非Json反序列稳定性更有优势]，记录出入参，全部外部调用的数据。\n用例代码和数据均由工具自动生成。大部分代码都是在帮开发者将录制的数据组装Mock对象，这部分工作量在实际开发中是最大的，因此可大幅减轻开发者自己手工编码工作。\n当需要手工扩充用例时，只需将用例方法和数据复制一份，再对数据做出调整即可制作出新的用例。\n挑战：\n\n用例的采样控制，重复用例的识别与剔除。\n基于动态代理技术实现代码的特殊处理，如mybatis，JSF\n结构化数据的录制与还原，复杂泛型的还原，复杂对象的序列化和反序列化\n底层技术如何使接入成本降低，减少对应用的入侵\n\n结语\n写单测这部分不是空谈，我们真有在实践，效果不错\n参考\n1.京东云 一台不容错过的Java单元测试代码“永动机” ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["软件工程","研发质效"]},{"title":"过早优化是罪恶之源","url":"/%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E4%B9%8B%E6%BA%90.html","content":"\n\nPremature optimization is the root of all evil。\nProgrammers waste enormous amounts of time thinking about, or worrying about, the speed of noncritical parts of their programs, and these attempts at efficiency actually have a strong negative impact when debugging and maintenance are considered. We should forget about small efficiencies, say about 97% of the time: premature optimization is the root of all evil.\nIn established engineering disciplines a 12 % improvement, easily obtained, is never considered marginal;\n—Donald Knuth 1974 《使用 goto 语句的结构化编程》\n\n保持简单\n简单化（避免复杂）永远都应该是你的头等目标。简单的程序让你写起来容易，bug更少，更容易维护修改，不要开发你当前用不到的功能。\n用最简单的办法让程序跑起来，这是你需要常常问自己的，也是第一点的实践保证\n避免过早的优化\n\n\n\n只有当你的程序没有其它问题，只是比你预期要慢时，你才能去考虑优化工作。\n\n\n只有当你的其它工作都做完之后，你才能去考虑优化问题。\n\n\n而且你只能根据经验做法来优化。对于小幅的性能优化都不应该去考虑，在成熟的工程学科中，能轻易获得12%的改进。\n\n\n效率的圣杯滥用导致程序员浪费大量时间去思考或担心程序中非关键部分的速度，而在考虑调试和维护时，这些提高效率的尝试实际上会产生强烈的负面影响。\n简略剖析\n1. 程序员多属于盲目乐观派，违反圣经KISS原则，可维护性维度定下降\n2. 过早优化容易让系统丧失扩展性\n\n需求发展总是动态的，优化是一种架构需求稳定后基于经验的静态思维的行动，过早做\n\n\n\n可能是浪费\n\n\n扩展性易受损\n\n\n\n应该在正确抽象层级进行优化\n\n3. 容易关注不重要的部分，而忽略行动和目标本身，造成项目进度失控\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT哲学"]},{"title":"逆向工程防护","url":"/%E9%80%86%E5%90%91%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%8A%A4.html","content":"\n何为逆向工程\n\n\n软件逆推，还原成一段段代码，找到其中的关键代码，篡改，破解，发现漏洞\n最好的例子就是盗版软件。开发者们累死累活写好的程序，分分钟被人逆向破解，植入广告和木马，重新打包成盗版\n正义的逆向者只是做安全研究，而非正义的逆向者却拿着这项技能四处干坏事牟利\n\n一方为防破解使出浑身解数\n一方为破解绞尽脑汁\n\n\n\n有哪些对抗逆向工程的手段\n\n加密和混淆\n反调试：调试器运行时出现错误或停止运行\n动态链接库保护\n数字签名防篡改，代码完整性保护\n运行环境保护：用虚拟化技术对软件运行环境进行保护，如沙箱技术，虚拟机等\n法律手段\n\n代码混淆\n\n代码混淆（Obfuscation） 是将电脑程序的原始代码或机器代码，转换成功能上等价，但难以被人阅读和理解的行为。\n\n加大阅读和理解的难度，以此来加强代码的保护\n甚至会在代码里加各种多余的垃圾指令和代码，把原来的逻辑拆分成个各种怪癖语法，达到防破解的目的\n\n怎么做？\n\n各种元素命名无意义化（名称混淆）\n代码缩减（删除注释，空格等）\n等价复杂化\n\n循环改递归\n精简中间变量等\n\n\n\n和加密的差异\n\n加密顾名思义是将想要隐藏的东西上锁\n混淆则不是，处理时，信息保持原样，只是以一种模糊的格式呈现出来。将复杂性提高到难以理解或解析的程度。\n\n逆向工程师死磕到底\n放弃破解转去破解更易破解的应用程序\n\n\n混淆只能增加难度，调试及除错也变得困难起来\n\n防Hook\n代码检测完整性，运行环境、框架检测等\n加壳\n\n利用特殊算法，对文件里的资源进行压缩，改变其原来的特征码，隐藏字符串等。使得一些资源编辑软件无法正常打开或修改，类似 winrar 的效果。只不过这个压缩后的文件，可独立运行，解压过程完全屏蔽，都在内存中完成\n解压原理：在文件头里加了一段指令，告诉 cpu，怎么才能解压自己\n相当于给可执行文件加个外衣，用户执行的是这个壳程序，外壳程序会把原来的程序在内存中解开，而后交给真正的程序\n\nApp 扫描与加固\n\n\nAndroid应用安全加固，使用 DEX VMP、DEX函数抽取加密及动态还原，DEX文件加壳，So 文件加固，核心代码转为二进制、H5 文件混淆、SDK 加固，资源文件完整性保护，防调试保护，签名校验，防截屏，防劫持等技术。使加固后的应用具备防逆向分析，防二次代码，防动态测试，防动态注入，防数据篡改等安全防护能力\n\n\nIOS 应用安全加固，使用常量字符串随机加密，等效指令替换，基本块分裂，基本块调度，虚假控制流，控制流扁平化，控制流间接化等技术，对 IPA 文件进行加固，活在 OC/C/C++/Swift代码编译的过程中对源码进行保护，增强加固后的应用的防逆向分析，防二次代码，防动态测试，防动态注入，防数据篡改等安全防护能力\n\n\nSDK 加固使用 DEX 加壳，DEX 源码分析及动态还原，DEX VMP、防调试技术对 AAR、JAR 文件进行加固，使加固后的 AAR，JAR 文件具备防逆向分析，防动态调试等安全防护能力；对于 So 文件，使用 So 加固技术；对于 IOS SDK，使用 IOS 源码混淆技术\n\n\nJava SDK 自定义解释器或用 Java Agent 技术活重写 class loader，对文件，方法进行加载时解密，确定是要修改运行环境，无法被其他项目兼容\n\n\n安全沙盒技术(virbox protector java VME保护技术)：SDK 中的字节码转换为自定义的虚拟机字节码，并将其替换成跳转代码，运行时跳转至自定义虚拟机中解释执行[1]\n\n\n\n\n\n\n反调试技术有哪些\n\n\n都可以检测当前进程是否被调试器附加，判定到调试器附加则终止程序\n\n有系统函数或标志位可以判断，有硬件断电检测技术，也可监视特定的库或文件\n\n\n\n利用流行调试器的漏洞，让调试器崩溃或无法正常工作（H5 也有类似做法）\n\n\n使用基于时间的检测技术，比较代码执行的实际时间和预期时间，有显著差异则终止\n\n都可使用硬件断点检测的技术，但实现不同，android 使用寄存器或内存地址来设置断点，IOS 使用调试寄存器来设置断点\n\n\n\n前端 H5 代码防护手段\n\n混淆压缩，如控制流混淆\n字符串加密，代码整体加密\n运行时保护\n\n域名锁定\n禁止控制台输出\n反调试\n\n无限 debugger，打断、阻止看代码。仅限于防静态分析\n禁止打开控制台\n\n\n\n\n\n参考\n1.sohu Java虚拟化加密保护 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT","安全"]},{"title":"通用度量衡关系","url":"/%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F%E8%A1%A1%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB.html","content":"\n\n结论先行，度『长度』为度量衡的基石\n\n基本物理度量衡\n长度\n米最早是赤道到北极长度的4千万分之一，现在定义为光在1/299792458秒时间进程的长度\n海里还比较标准，地球1/60度行过的距离\n\n英寸在荷兰语中本意是大拇指，指指甲底部拇指的宽度，14世纪英皇爱德华二世颁布了标准合法英寸：从麦穗中选三粒最大的麦粒排成一排的长度，就是一英寸，看起来就发笑\n\n\n英尺与英寸是12进制，feet英尺听名字就那么俗，只是历史原因不会动\n\n重量\n1克初始定义为1立方厘米0摄氏度的水的重量，克单位太小，不适合日常使用，那么1千克就是1立方分米水的重量。后来继续修正，因为水在4摄氏度时密度最大，就改为4摄氏度时重量，这里用重量称谓其实不太准确，因为跟重力加速度有关，但发生在地球，度量衡就是这么诞生的，称谓质量更为合适\n力\n1牛顿=1千克物体获得1m/s的加速度所需的力\n\n容量\n1升=一立方分米或是10厘米见方的立方体的体积\n角度\n在观测每年的四季轮动时，360这个数更贴近与365天，那么古人更自然将圆的切分贴近每年的天数这个数字。\n\n在唐代，圆的角度是365.25度，一行在制作他的《大衍历》时就放弃了365.25度的数据，借用了印度的360度进行计算(印度的又从两河流域传过来)\n均分度数能被更多数整除是好的\n\n例如圆6等分的弦长=半径，那么均分度数应被6整除\n4等分（90度）建筑中常用，这个度数也应该能被4整除\n从2到10的整数，除了7之外，都是360的因数。也就是360可以被2、3、4、5、6、8、9、10整除。如果一定要包括7的话，最小的数是2520，这个数实在太大，而七等分圆的情况并不多见，所以最终定为360\n\n\n时间进制\n时间单位为12进制，相信跟一个太阳年月球盈亏几次有关，这样切分到一天也是12进制，另外，以大拇指掐算指节也是12，所以早期数学为12进制也较为自然。在远离计时钟的远古年代，小时的长度是随季节不同的，但是古人当时认为白天黑夜必各占12小时\n\n历史上有的族群用60进制，这个也自然，毕竟两只手（掐算指节）能方便计算的最大数就是60，或许一个小时的60分钟也就来源于此，太大太小恰恰都不利于计时，总不能用一刹那，一念，一瞬，一弹指这种计量单位吧，哈哈。\n地球转一圈24小时360度，每一度大约4分钟，也是一个恰当的duration感受单位\n\n怪异的12am\n在现在通行的英文标准体制中，12小时制，凌晨0点到1点之间，是写作12：xx AM，12：00PM指的是下午十分，显得有些不适应。\n\n拉丁字母缩写AM (ante meridiem 正午之前)，PM（post meridiem 正午之后）\n钟表盘面没有0，计时机制通行时，0这个数字还没传入\n\n有这么两种解释角度\n\n英语世界从洋媚外用了罗马人拉丁字母缩写，但罗马人用AM是表示正午前多少小时，1AM是正午前1小时即11：00，12AM和12PM都是指00：00，英语世界的人拍脑袋用错了，将错就错\n指针式钟表的钟面0：30是读成12：30，从钟面没有0的这个直接性上，亦得自然。AM和PM权当做上下午的区分，下午时段由中午到午夜。\n\n温度\n华氏是一个很不科学的度量，可能跟当时采用的水银计的制作和水银充盈量有关，基本已被全球弃用。1摄氏度即为水冰点到沸点的1/100的划分。\n能量\n1焦耳=1牛顿的力前进1米所做的功\n一卡=1克水在标准大气压下提升1摄氏度所需的热量，1大卡就意味着1公斤水提升1摄氏度\n1千卡=1000卡=4184焦耳，简单来算，1卡是4.2倍的焦耳量\n功率\n1瓦特（w）=1焦耳/秒\n1度电=3600000焦耳=860.4千卡\n100w灯1小时 0.1度电，1天2.4度=2064千卡\n社会代谢率\n对我们人类而言，每天需要大约2000大卡的食物热量，这相当于100w的代谢率，和一只白炽灯的电功率相当\n但除此之外，我们还需要住房，暖气，灯光，汽车，道路，飞机，计算机等，举例支持一个普通人在美国生活所需的代谢率增至惊人的1.1万瓦特，这一社会代谢率相当于大约12头大象的需求总量，在从生物向社会动物转变过程中，我们的总人口从几百万到了现金的70亿＋，能源和资源危机就不足为奇了。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["物理"]},{"title":"阅读-表达-写作的训练","url":"/%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB-%E8%A1%A8%E8%BE%BE-%E5%86%99%E4%BD%9C%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83.html","content":"\n\n主体内容来自于吴军博士的得到App课程《阅读与写作50讲》\n\n理工科的人，不善言辞是一个常见标签，奈何中国历来推崇敏于行而讷于言[《论语·里仁》]，语文教育中一直比较单一未做纠正。随着职业到了一定的阶段，你会越发的发现，做事与表达是二位一体的，理解他人表达自己仍然是人的一张王牌，是底层能力。\n\n就像梁宁的产品思维30讲里提到的，产品能力也是每个人的底层能力，是一个人学习建立认知框架的过程。建立信息秩序，再建立内心秩序，在一片纷杂里，你会知道自己该放弃哪个点，抓住哪个点， 慢慢建立起掌控\n\n我开始切切实实的留意关注如何表达是最好的，而不是像儿时一笑而过能解决所有事情。这个过程也没有捷径，如写作一样，写什么不重要了，终极的专业的要求是有自己的风格，你追赶去学某人已经来不及了，做出你自己的风格就好。\n先说口头表达\n让自己的话更吸引人，真正达到表达自我的目的，这个要求可不低\n\n口头表达听众大致听了5分钟就走神，你说精彩的表现难不难\n\n平静而有节制的讲话方式很重要，因为只有那么讲出来，大家才会相信你讲的内容。另外，公众表达时，最好语速要比平时慢20%~30%，一是考虑到你准备的熟练度的问题，二是不要忽视了听众的信息接收能力与互动观察。\n\n明智的沟通者会观察间隙，停顿以及迟疑，他们听得到沉默，读的懂沉默。他们将停顿看作交叉路口的黄色信号灯，有时候，沟通中真正重要的信息埋没在沉默中。\n好的口头表达特征\n有的放矢\n\n好的口头表达，要有侧重点\n\n\n\n最重要的主题讲，其余都不讲\n除非你和听众都有很多的时间，你讲什么内容比郭德纲讲段子还好听，否则不要试图一次讲很多内容，最好一次只讲一个主题。如果内容删到再删这次讲话就可以取消了，那就差不多了。不舍得删，就挑一个最重要的\n\n\n能讲清楚的讲，讲不清或太花时间的不讲\n做学术报告的原则是，永远不要试图在有限的时间里，讲那些需要花很长时间解释，且容易引起大家疑问的结果，哪怕这个结果你看起来好的不得了。\n这个世界并非你做了一件牛事告诉大家，别人就觉得你牛，而是大家听明白了你的贡献，对此无异议，才觉得你牛，哪怕那个贡献看上去不那么大\n\n\n好的口头表达，要有对象感\n跟写书不一样，口头表达是对特定对象说话的，以一个对方愿意接受的方式传递信息，比用自己觉得最精彩的方式去讲，效果要好很多，讲话一定要看对象，“见人说人话，见鬼说鬼话”，并不是毫无道理。\n永远用对方懂得的事情和概念，去解释和形容新的事情。\n\n\n吸引力法则\n\n\n善用对比和类比\n\n比喻的价值绝不只是使语言生动形象，亲切自然，它是我们传递思想，把别人不知道的东西讲清楚的重要工具\n\n\n\n趣味性的废话\n\n从信息传播的角度讲，口语表达，如果讲的全是干货，听众接受的速率，是跟不上讲话人的，适当增加趣味性的废话是需要的\n\n\n\n避免竹筒倒豆子\n\n讲东西像写小说，要预设一些后面的场景，而不是像竹筒倒豆子一样把话讲完，而是等对方好奇提问后，以解答的方式把自己的意思继续表达下去。这样对方会感觉到，你传递过去的信息，不是你强加给他的，而是他的好奇心得到了满足\n\n\n\n做报告的注意原则\n\n最佳是小问题说成大问题，甚至把大成就说成小成绩。这就如同一个将军，所夸耀的伟大胜利不过是杀敌10人，再怎么吹大家也不会觉得了不起，反而把他定格在伟大胜利=杀敌十人了。相反，如果把自己的小问题说成大问题，而且表现的不虚伪，对方会觉得你是一个对自己标准定的很高的人\n控制报告时长的最简单办法，就是严格按照一张PPT 2分钟讲，如果做15分钟的报告，只准备7张PPT，不要太多\n若作为经验布道者，开场可以收集一系列问题，作为后续答疑解惑的依据和发挥影响力及针对性施教的抓手，看到很多培训课程是如此的套路，不无道理。\n报告不重过程，只重结论。大家阅读报告，是希望在短时间里了解结论，而不是自己花很多时间再做一次研究，因此，对于数据的解读很重要。\n综述类报告，要考虑读者群，因读者水平参差不齐，内容上需要做必要的背景知识介绍，在使用概念时做必要的解释。如果你读IEEE杂志的综述报告，会发现作者会用很多比喻来说明新的概念，而不是做字面上的解释。这种内容在论文里完全是浪费篇幅，但在报告中却是必要的。\n\n发言容易大脑空白？\n皆因准备不够\n\n名人轶闻：丘吉尔说，如果让他作2分钟的演讲，要准备半个月；5分钟的演讲，要准备一个星期；而一个小时的演讲，则不需要准备，立即就可以开始。\n\n名人现身说法1\n吴军博士的导师库旦普教授算是表达能力极强的人一人了，其准备报告也极为认真，无论是15分钟，还是一小时的。一个15分钟的报告，也要准备一两天，不仅PPT要反复修改，而且每一张PPT结束的时候，该停一秒钟，两秒钟，还是不停，都是设计好的，有时候觉得听众可能听完要想一下，他就会停2秒钟不说话，有时候，他需要讲一句俏皮话做过渡，全是设计好的。每一次讲的内容都会背的滚瓜烂熟。\n名人现身说法2\n谷歌搜索和人工智能的高级副总裁，美国工程院院士辛格博士，作报告之前，都要请同事事先听一听，提一提意见，早年他认为自己有口音，怕说话，在跟任何人谈话前，都回把要谈的内容写下来，包括和同事间5分钟的谈话，久而久之，他就能讲了。从这个例子来看，任何人做报告的时候，即使不能把内容背的滚瓜烂熟，讲什么至少要写在纸上，最不济，咱们可以拿出来念。\n现身说法3\n吴军博士举了他一个朋友的例子，这个朋友每次开派对，四五个小时就听他一个人讲，且大家听完觉得收获还很大，他跟女朋友在一起，从早上到深夜，能说十几个小时，还能让对方感觉意犹未尽。后来才得知，这个朋友哪怕派对上，准备讲什么笑话，讲什么严肃的内容，从哪里切入，都写在了纸上，有想不起来，会找个借口去洗手间看看。和女朋友在一起，也是这么做的，正是因为他做足了准备，所以在别人面前才显得轻松自如。\n总结\n很多人看到人能讲的现象，没有看到所谓能讲的人在背后准备所花的时间。\n所以，任何人，多准备，多练习，口头表达的能力就可以提高。准备得是真正的充分的准备，而不仅仅是自己觉得准备好了。我们可以看下面两个步骤\n\n把要讲的东西写处理啊，讲话的时候，实在想不起来就念稿子\n事先做几次预演，让一些同事，朋友提意见，当然自己讲什么要提前背熟。讲完后，问问同事和朋友的反馈。\n\n再说写作\n没有专职作家的目标，也难追赶拥有华丽文笔，所以不摘录结构等深度话题（就像电影讲故事的模式很多样，甚至烧脑），只谈基本意识\n\n书面表达只要能够不断吸引读者跟着作者的思路走，行文逻辑可以搞得很复杂，而且未必需要重点放在前面。\n书面表达在论述上常采用的两个手段是“层层递进”和“剧情大反转”\n\n基本功\n观察日记咋写\n找个有趣新鲜的题材写，写的好坏并不重要。很多小学生都被要求写观察日记，却憋半天写不出来。其实写观察日记就像用手机拍张有趣的照片，然后将一句文字说明那么简单。拍什么不重要，关键是你自己拍的，而且要说清楚什么时候，在哪里，为什么拍它，就可以了。\n每一个让我们感觉到“原来如此”或者“原来不过如此”的见闻，都是很好的写作题材。写下你的印象和感受，或**用一个特点聚焦镜头联想挖掘**，水到渠成很容易\n主题突出\n书面表达和口头表达不一样，没有机会辩解，好的记录写作应要让主题画面足够突出，这时你要是后悔没仔细观察事后想不起细节，为了凑字数扯一些脱离主题没用的事情，就像要通过增加背景来增加像素。\n此时其实最好的办法是做一次剪裁，把没用的画面裁掉，这样得到的图片可能像素不高，但是表达的目的能达到。\n为主题安排线索\n记录一件事情要有线索，但线索替代不了主题。说明一个观点也要如此，会有整体看法态度，这是轮廓，然后有支持它的证据，这是细节。这些细节不是以清单的方式罗列，而是要根据一条线索展开。\n对象感有的放矢\n为了让对方和我们一起产生共鸣，写东西的时候还要看对方是谁，还要以对方的认知体系为前提进行交流，做到有的放矢\n下笔卡壳无神？\n\n说人话就是，对一个东西不能很好组织语言进行表达\n\n\n\n收集写作所必需的素材，否则你肯定是“憋”，有感而发，有别人没有的素材才能写的精彩\n\n\n参考之前人写类似题材的经验，从经典作品取经\n\n\n先搭架子，再填内容（文字和结构写好，比文字优美重要）\n\n先把想写的东西都列出来，看看如何基于那些想法搭个架子。\n\n\n\n在搭架子的过程中，你就会发现，很多想写的内容其实和这个架子无关，那这时候你就要提醒自己，坚决不要写这些内容。\n\n\n另一种情况是很多人把想写的东西搭出一个架子后，发现凑不出一篇完整的文章，也会有些憋的感觉。类比于拖延症，这还是因为你定了一个超出自己的要求。\n\n\n没毛病老铁，写的辛苦写的累说明你在走上坡路。先把架子放在那，你可以逐项填入内容，先把容易写的或者能写的盘下来，回过头来再补前面卡主的内容。在学习写作的阶段，很多人写着写着卡壳了是常有的事，客观上来讲也没有必要从头到尾一气呵成，你又不是天才。\n从工程学里来讲，有架构设计是非常必要的，可以避免推翻重写的情况（普通人肯定是边写边想边调整），另外把大目标分解为小动作（小问题），其实是非常重要的能力来着。\n\n\n写的好离不开阅读量\n清华教艺术史的王乃壮教授讲，当初徐悲鸿先生对他们的要求，是需要了解至少500个艺术家的风格，这样才会产生自己的风格。类比至阅读量来说，是一样的道理，你能写的好，离不来广泛的接触和临摹。\n阅读和知识体系建立\n\n读书世界就在眼前，不读书眼前就是世界（价值由身边人决定，模仿周边被环境固定）\n\n人不是天生有阅读能力，严肃读物的阅读习惯，更需要后天的训练和培养，他会让人受益终身，这个能力，光靠浏览网页或社交媒体可不够。兼顾阅读的广度和深度，一个人的阅读应该分层。\n品味的基准线\n阅读的品味是土壤，有什么样的土壤长出什么样的植物。深度阅读是根系，细读是枝干，大量浏览是树冠，一颗漂亮的树要枝叶繁茂，光秃秃的没人喜欢，树叶回落了再长，大量浏览的书籍文章可能很快就忘掉了，但是只要有好的阅读习惯，很快又枝叶茂盛了。\n建立知识体系这件事的成本其实不是花钱多少，主要是要考虑时间成本和收益比。无论是对已知的还是未知的领域，建立知识体系从正统的观点出发，恰恰是效率最高的做法。从互联网上找好内容太高，若是将旁门左道的内容当做主流来读，品味就很难提高了。读经典文学作品的意义也是找到基准线。\n经典之所以是经典，是因为作品讨论的问题是穿越时空的，且用平实（或优美）的语言写出警句。\n阅读的分层\n深读，细读，浏览 三个层面。\n深度阅读是为了把一本书读透后，用它的内容构建我们整个知识体系和认知的框架及去伪存真，很多教科书就值得深读。在阅读的分层中，用于典藏的书，需要深度，不断反复阅读；用于实现知识完整性细读的书，有助于建立自己的知识图谱，翻翻浏览的书，可以用于扩大视野。\n客观看待书籍的信息度\n2/3的书，都是浏览一下就好，一本书哪怕只得两三页纸有用的信息，就不算浪费。你将你做过记号的内容章节剪下来保存，剩余的扔掉都没问题。有时候了解信息来说，杂志比书更有效。\n约翰霍普金斯大学的老师雅让斯基，藏书量很大，但95%也不过是浏览过而已。从他的话上来说，绝大部分的书，不值得仔细读。\n但阅读量大是有好处的，除了扩宽知识面，更重要的是能保证自己的想法客观中立（如果只了解一个作者的观点，就有可能被他牵着鼻子走）。任何专业人士想做到一流，必须对所在的领域有全面的了解，既要有知识面的宽度，又要对某些问题有深度的理解。\n带着体系目标读，避开读书的风险\n读书太多，容易让你与外界隔离，且获得一种超越现实的价值观，却得不到现实的承载，最终面临矛盾的价值观，经历蜕变和痛楚。知道的太多，发现现实只是一口井，你也不如青蛙快乐，最终你要么得到海洋，要么懂得妥协并视为艺术。所以读太多也是有风险的。你的目标应该是构建一种自己想要的知识体系，并像美国的大语文教育一样注重在实际生活中的应用，哪怕拿这个去当老师给人讲课挣钱或传播观点呢\n读书不应代替交流\n读书也没有那么高尚，优雅，时尚，和不同时空的人聊天而已。当你有一个困惑，排在首位的解决办法是向高人求教，其次是和朋友碰撞聊天，最后才是读书。说白了，读书是没有办法的办法，是我们和古人或没有办法谋面的当世高人交流的唯一途径。但是它不能超越任何人的交流，它只是其中一种方式而已，且不是最高效的。\n构建知识体系的方法总结\n\n进入陌生领域，第一步要从正统文献或作品开始（基准线）\n针对正统知识过时的问题，要对基准线进行修正，可以看近10年权威的综述文章，一个领域读5篇就有大致的了解。走正统的好处是，便于和专业人士交流。其实判断一个人专不专业，不是看其上大学学的什么，而是看他是否和专业人士经常交流，融入了专业人士的圈子\n知识体系的第三部就是有趣的专著。现在的书经常要走的观点鲜明，偏激，你要知道鲜明有新意的观点并不等于正确，有时恰好相反。但你有了基准线，这些鲜明的观点对你的帮助和触动可能就很大，且不会将你带偏。\n\n补充知识\n阅读速度的理论上限\n通过对脑科学和认知科学的研究，人一秒钟能接受的信息大约100-200个比特，换算成汉字，就是大约12-25个，如果阅读速度真能到这么快，那么一分钟能读700-1500个汉字，也就是32开的书1到2页，一本400页的小说4-7个小时就读完了。但是一般人，达不到这个速度。\n偏差的原因\n眼睛和脑子一同识别文字图像的速度不同。阅读文字，我们眼睛看到的是图像，脑子需要做一次图像识别，才能理解词汇。\n如果我们的眼睛分辨率非常高，真能做到一目十行，图像识别的速度也会快一些。不幸的是，我们眼睛视网膜只有中心区域分辨率高，也就覆盖我们眼睛前方大约 1  度角的范围。一度角有多大？你把手臂伸直，竖起食指，食指的宽度大约就是1度角。也就是说你把书放那么远，大约一次能看清四到五个汉字，如果书捧的近一点，不过三个字而已。我们看到的画面有几十度宽啊，那其实是我们人脑合成出来的图像。看过魔术表演的朋友会有这样的体会，你眼睛越盯着魔术师的手，越看不清他的把戏，因为它的手速太快，你的眼镜和大脑来不及合成图像。\n人眼和脑子是无法天生同步的，眼睛一扫而过，脑子往往跟不上。这是人的生理极限，没有办法改变。\n训练提高阅读速度\n生理极限可以通过训练来接近（实验室可以用眼睛不动，屏幕上的字缓慢移动，且中心区域字体加亮的方式来大大提速阅读速度，毕竟平时做不到这样）。\n\n书不要捧的太近\n默读能帮助眼睛扫描和脑子理解做到同步，用默读的节奏来控制眼睛扫描的速度，只要脑子稍微想一下读音即可不是真默读，经过练习后，看到熟悉的词组，可能读了前两个音节，整个词组就识别完了，眼睛就直接跳到下一个词组了。\n\n读书越多，图像识别的速度越快，但遇到一个生字卡壳，速度马上就会降下来。遇到不认识的词，不要停，跳过去。阅读并不需要理解每一个词，从段落里扣除30%的文字，不管是人还是计算机都无法理解，但如果扣掉10%，计算机理解要差点，但受到良好教育的人，基本上能恢复全部信息。几个词不认识，不会影响人阅读，有问题，读到几次后，自然就学会了。\n简而言之，提高阅读速度，要做到有意识地阅读，提高对文章结构和有用信息的敏感度。关键还在于脑和眼的配合，而语音是帮助眼和脑同步的辅助工具，再者稍微把书拿远一点，不仅对视力有好处，还有助于提高读速。\n结语\n今天不再是过去的熟人社会，而逐渐成为生人社会，讷于言不再是美德。离开学校的人，如果没有接受这方面的训练，要及早补上，家长可以注意，比如吃晚饭的时候，让孩子讲讲自己的作文是怎么写的，聊聊对一些问题的看法。\n大语文教育，应该重视口语表达，重视严肃读物的阅读量，注重语文在实际生活中的运用。\n\n浅入浅出是没学问\n浅入深出是假学问\n深入深出是小学问\n深入浅出是大学问（言论观点意义深刻，语言文字浅显易懂）\n\n\n这个世界充斥着假学问和小学问，作为起了个大早的罗辑思维用户，后来弃跟也是觉得里面到处是简单问题复杂化，落入了假学问的阵法，还有一种可能因素自己的能量密度或野心配不上，但收获已是很多。\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["软技能"]},{"title":"阶层思维差异","url":"/%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n阶层思维方式差异\n\n可以说是一种思维进化吧\n\n底层思维\n叫做“我有一个痛苦”。上班嫌挣钱少，炒股嫌亏钱，做饭嫌麻烦，吃外卖又嫌送得慢。\n眼中满是不幸和痛苦，心中充满憎恨和委屈，只有这种心态一辈子难以爬出底层。\n穷人思维\n开始意识到不幸都是自己造成的，开始进化到&quot;我有一个梦想&quot;，知道怨天尤人没用，自己的生活要靠自己创造，但空有梦想，却不落地执行，总是在等待，等待时机，学习经验，积累人脉，看似很努力，其实都瞎忙。\n他们永远不开始，因为它们没有勇气，他们恐惧失败，他们看起来不安于现状，但潜意识仍然害怕改变。一旦穷人行动起来，他们就变成了第三层，中产思维。\n\n\n改变自己最快的方式，就是逼自己去做自己害怕的事。你想堕落没人拦着你，可你想出人头地，拦你的人可多的了，首当其冲就是你自己。\n像高山滑雪一样，你不理解那些人怎么在这么多树的里面滑雪。如果你心里讲的是不要撞到树，不要撞到树，那么你眼中看到的都是树。你难免会撞上。但你想的是，看着雪滑，看着雪，那么你唯一能看到的就是雪道了。如果你专注在障碍物上，你看到的都是障碍，这是人脑的模式决定的，人脑是不太能处理negative的句子的。同理，如何看待你的工作其实是你自己的选择。\n\n夸一个穷人如何节俭，如同夸一个太监如何高尚坐怀不乱一样无耻。\n中产思维\n叫做&quot;我有一个目标&quot;，梦想是遥不可及的，目标却是可实现的可执行的。\n梦想是成为大富豪，目标是明年先赚一百万，中产就能把这个先赚100万的这个目标拆分成我现在应该怎么做，应该加入什么行业，做什么生意，开始考察项目，联系自己的朋友和陌生人，看有没有合作的可能。\n目标是终局思维，是以终为始，倒推路线，就像地图导航一样。\n富人思维\n真正的富人思维是当你设定好目标全力冲刺时，你会遭遇惨痛的失败，会发现这个世界的随机性是如此之强，能否达成目标并不取决于你的努力程度，运气，资源，能力都十分重要。\n你努力努力再努力，失败失败再失败，接下来有两种可能。\n\n\n第一是你放弃了退回到穷人思维，你仍然有一个梦想，但你不行动了。心理学管这种状态叫做习得性无助，因为你认为你怎么努力也没用，穷人没出路阶层固话，这辈子就这样了。你仍然有梦想但再也不会有勇气。\n\n\n第二种可能就是你顿悟了，你明白了真正的富人思维，可叫它“我有一个方法”，富人知道世界充满随机性，努力不一定有回报，设立目标也不一定能实现。\n\n你计划两个月后减肥十斤，于是你每天跑5公里，一天只吃2两白菜和3个苹果，两个月你却只瘦了两斤，你失败了；\n你计划明年多开发10个新客户，老客户续费率维持在50%，同时探索自己的副业，做一个自媒体，但明年疫情，公司把你开除了，你又没找到新的工作，你失败了。\n似乎你设立的目标能否完成根本不取决于你自己，一切都是命运的选择，这时应该怎么办？这时你要活在当下，你的目标失败了，但你做的事情是不是正确的，每天跑5公里是不是一个好事，如果是，那就做。\n公司开除了你，你的自媒体还要不要做，做自媒体是不是一件好事，是不是有价值，如果是，那就做。\n\n\n\n忘记你的目标，因为你控制不了它。你能控制什么，你可以每天跑5公司，每天写一篇文章，每天打50个销售电话，你还可以反思和学习，提高写作水平，深入挖掘客户需求，这些是正确的有价值的事，那就做。富人有一套方法，他不知道这套方法什么时候能帮助他走向成功，但他知道使用这套方法，成功只是时间问题。\n\n巴菲特的方法叫做价值投资，一辈子都在寻找价格低于价值的股票，买入持有，不知道什么时候能成功，也不知道明年的收益率能到多少，他遵循的是自己的方法。\n每个参加奥运会的健将，都有自己的方法，他们的方法是科学的训练，严格的自律，勤奋的付出，甚至不知道能不能拿金牌，拿铜牌的运动员和拿金牌的运动员，同样值得钦佩，有时真的只是运气问题。\n\n所以同为人生，富人在熬，穷人在混。或者说一个在熬人性，一个在熬人生。熬伴随的是你的努力，等着一个又一个结果的出现，熬得是生命体验、是周期、是认知，是舍得，是一个修炼人性的过程，换个词也是格局和胸怀。\n独立思考的稀缺性\n大部分人因为穷和压力，所有没有独立思考能力。生活环境导致大家没有时间和精力从基础开始专注学习较为艰深的知识，学习是非常消耗专注力的。睡眠不足，环境嘈杂，琐事烦心等等，都会造成学习效率不足，人在步入社会后，依然需不断学习行业知识，人际交往，人事管理，投资管理，科学育儿等等。如果没有专深的知识，如何独立的思考，理性的思维？\n很多人读的书非常劣质，喜欢看一些学术混子的视频，信一些宏大叙事和阴谋论，原因不在于他们的理解能力，而在于生活各类琐事让他们没有精力去读和思考。这些劣质图书，视频浅显的内容，就是在迎合这些还想学习，但不具备学习环境的焦虑阶层，市场上有多少课程，打着从零开始，30天学会的旗号，学个解1元二次方程都得这么久，这些课程的知识该是如何肤浅。\n\n心理学研究发现，压力使人更容易相信宗教，非自然力，阴谋论和小道消息。贫穷和不平等会导致更虔诚的宗教信仰，更迷信阴谋论，成了恶性循环，生成了贫困引力。越贫穷的人，决策和思维越非理性，非理性更加贫穷。\n川建国的支持者们更相信选举阴谋论，愈加支持川建国。而更利于他们摆脱贫困的更加合理化和强势的再分配政策，却和他们的投票抵触。\n日本即将战败时，穷人争相当神风敢死队，富人已经开始买海运和纺织业股票。\n这个世界就是这么残酷，制造谎言的人剥削韭菜，而韭菜却愈加相信谎言。\n\n对于普通人来说，只能更加强力的自省和学习，独立思考其实是一种非常稀缺的能力。\n\n在精英的语重心长话语体系中，充满了偏见与蔑视，也想让底层只学干活的知识，他们自己的孩子学思考的知识。独立思考的能力是建立在相对丰富的知识体系之上的，争取到抬头看路的权利，让孩子学学艺术，读读文学历史，学会体会生活的美好，避开贫穷的本质（失去思考的权利）。\n\n阶层不同无法真正沟通\n上中下无共同话题\n上中下三个群体两两之间不可能有共同的话题。底层人想的是感情和道德，中层人脑中的是逻辑和利益，上层人关注的是理想和未来。\n最蠢的无外乎是和底层人讲逻辑，和中层人谈理想，和上层人谈感情。\n\n底层人没有辨别是非的能力，他们做判断，依赖道德和感情；中层人除了内卷，什么都不考虑，升职加薪买车买房之间没有理想插足的空间，上层人实在不缺感情，大把人排着队要当他们的小弟和女友。你一无所有，只知道对上层人掏心掏肺，有如往大海里泼水，最多得到一朵水花作为表面回应。\n\n最好的策略是当底层人的哥们，帮中层人搞钱，忽悠上层人给他们画大饼，鼓吹一些不可捉摸的新概念，让他们相信你能帮他们做成改变世界的伟大事业，比如物联网，区块链，元宇宙。\n上层的特殊性\n上层人利用财富可以彻底让自己的生活与底层人隔绝，身边除了值得交流的上层同仁，就是和颜悦色通情达理的人形家具，避免种种毫无价值的情绪消耗。\n\n他们俩阶层不爱交流，就更简单了。底层人对上层人能够付出的，唯有真心和陪伴，也自然要求对方回馈真心和陪伴，然而上层人实在是不缺小弟和女友.\n\n他们什么都不缺，能打动上层人的是宏大叙事，是历史与时代的齿轮咬合声，是伟大文明相互碰撞的火星，是以一己之力推动人类进步这一愿景带来的激动战栗。他们最宝贵的就是时间和精力，因为都是要投入到伟大和丰富的刺激中去的，单位时间的爽度比底层高太多了，比忙碌焦虑的中层高更是不知道哪里去了。\n交流的本质\n交流本身是一种拼拼图式的过程，双方亮出自己脑袋里的知识拼图，互通有无。从对方那里找到自己欠缺的部分，尽可能去完成自己的拼图。完成这个拼图，需要匹配两个元素，一是知识点（拼图片），二是逻辑。逻辑就像拼图上的图案，告诉你这拼图拼好后大概是个什么样子，提示你该怎么拼。\n中层底层很难交流\n中层却日常中避免不了和底层接触，与底层交流，印象最深刻的往往是底层的拼图有多奇葩。太多被中层群体视为常识的东西，得从头教起，且困难重重。\n底层脑袋里拼图片本身很欠缺，对完成后的全图更是一无所知，只有一些稀疏而破碎的知识点，杂乱地漂浮在脑海里。时而两片毫无关联的拼图碰在一起，凹凸之处偶然咬合，就兴奋地称自己有了一个伟大新灵感（想想那些拍脑袋做出奇葩决定的土老板或善于在酒桌上抛出暴论的大爷）。脑袋里为数不多的拼图已经按照上面说的无视拼图表面图案胡乱咬合的形式紧紧结合成了一条没头没尾支棱扎刺的长龙。你想往他脑子里输入知识，输入逻辑，帮他帮他把整个拼图打碎重新拼好，遭到的阻力不亚于直接否认其人格，所以还是随他去吧。\n\n不要改变下层人的观念如同不要动上层人的利益，动下层人的观念如动他的祖坟。可悲的是，下层人观念恰好是上层人利益的来源\n\n但中层转身一说，底层脑袋里积累的拼图碎片很多还是有收集价值的，用你的逻辑去做引导性倾听，循循善诱的帮他把一整套牛吹明白，底层人吹牛的欲望得到满足会更喜欢你。你作为听众多少也能收获到几枚知识拼图，算是最不坏的结果。当然多数时间收获的零星时间，都覆盖不了努力捧哏的时间精力成本。所以，除非真正有拉拢该底层人的必要（比如是家中长辈亲戚），否则中层还是倾向于和底层不做深入交流。\n网络战杠精\n中层眼里，底层都是有意或无意的杠精，有自知之明愿意接受帮助获得提升的还好，战斗意愿巨强烈，还专门找上门来跟你辩论的，除了躲远点，真的没有别的办法。很多底层人来到你评论区，利用其自身的逻辑漏洞，揪住一个点上来就杠，你跟他讲逻辑根本听不进去，因为他那两片图案不合的拼图就是严丝合缝地焊上了，谁说什么都不好使。\n你跟他讲拼图的全图，他听不懂也不屑听，而且这种人一来就是好多，人多势众气势汹汹，逻辑错误如机关枪般向你扫射，根本接不过来。他们只要把自己脑袋里的错误观念抛出来就可以了，你却要真正动脑筋去拆解梳理重构，用简明易懂的文字去给这个素不相识的却跟你有仇的陌生人做启蒙，双方付出的成本差太多，实在是费力不讨好。\n向下兼容的原则\n第一原则：板起面孔。讲理的人最容易犯的错误，就是以为别人和他一样讲理。用逻辑说话用道理说话，温良恭俭让就能说服别人？结果是层次低的人只觉得你好欺负好对付。同样是拿钱办事他偏偏对你偷工减料，买卖东西也是一样。\n层次低不代表心眼坏，只是他判断一件事是对是错，不是从逻辑上来分析的，而是从气势上来分析的。你凶一点他觉得你是对的，不然你不会那么凶。你少说话他觉得你的理很清楚，你说的多他觉得你是在放烟雾弹，其实没什么理。\n你要判断一个人层次高低，你就要先让一步，好好讲看他听不听，如果他不听或者开始亏待你或占你便宜，你就知道他的层次了，你就不要试着再去说服他，而是要立即严肃起来挑剔起来。要善良，也要有锋芒（起码一定要有原则底线）\n结语\n四顾望去都是同类人，其乐融融，无论你身处哪个阶层，都是最幸福的事。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"面试三例观察感想","url":"/%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E4%B8%89%E4%BE%8B%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E6%84%9F%E6%83%B3.html","content":"近日参与二面三则，相逢多数转身不见感触记录\n\n85年-北方民族大学\n毕业于北方民族大学，坐落宁夏银川，未婚，毕业一直在北京，辗转于多家企业，有法国做中东航空客户的外企，有国内项目制的软件开发企业（碰不到合适的项目就把人裁掉）。最近一家是瑞幸咖啡，是自己待的最满意的一家，最想长久干的一家，可惜因为税务丑闻，也做了人员缩减。从04月份疫情后，一直赋闲，想着等疫情消停后再找工作。\n\n这让我挺吃惊的，猜测一人吃饱全家不饿，肯定有些积蓄，但淡定这就久也没有什么不同于工作的强烈的个人安排，也没有技术突破，实属浪费了时间。问及一些生活问题，家人在东北农村也理解不了他的生活，帮不了什么，可能在北京就是一份荣耀吧。问问他对银川的印象，还不错，想不想去那里发展？不置可否。\n94年-奥克兰大学\n毕业于北京交通大学，后去奥克兰大学读硕士。去了华三不喜欢，又去了一家也不喜欢，想进大公司，稳健谋长篇发展。基础体现出来不是非常扎实，散发出北京一般家庭的气质，上进心和钻研精神体现的不是很突出（写到这里我想起来毕业那年因自己的好奇心和特质，吸引了鹅厂的初面官，成为专业里寥寥几个入围者，虽然未能走到最后）。\n因为技术视野和发展规划未能匹配其教育背景，理解核心问题的速率也不够突出，本来不想给他过，但转念想想自己的要求可能有些严苛了，毕竟18年才硕士毕业，遂留言给后续HR面关注其面对挑战和冲突的应对能力和吃苦耐劳的意识。\nHR后续追加评价个性偏自我，略浮躁，条理性一般，抗压性一般，需关注稳定性，给过了。\n95年-太原理工大学\n戴着办包边黑框眼镜的妹子，嘴稍微有些鼓。我们这样的IT岗位，比较少面试女生。本来没报多高希望，但其谈吐顺畅，工作三年，饱含工作热情。在女生里算是很不错的工作者了，不足之处是解决技术难题的经验定然是欠缺的。虽学的是计算机，因学校布课原因，算是半个数学专业，顺带问了她对于数学学习的感受和体悟，仍然散发出来的是一个正能量坦荡的性格。这种性格好奇最终被龙凤胎打破，怪不得，独生子女里难得有这样的个性。\n原来的单位频繁出差做项目，也是项目制，原来还觉得挺好，可以到处去，但3年了，作为一个妹子也想缓缓下来安顿安顿，北京离山西不远，算是优选，个性好的人一般也认为其家乡城市也是好地方，岗位其实更需要这样一个工作者迎接各种未知的挑战，但其来晚了，不一定有入职机会。好在其还有京东的口头offer，祝好吧\n结语\n人生啊，百态，在点线（单领域线协作管理）面（多项目多团队协作管理）体（公司/部门）的发展路线上，希望都能挥洒出自己满意的轨迹。\n\n愿成长\n落落大方\n笑得坦荡\n不负众望\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["访谈"]},{"title":"面试法框架","url":"/%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E6%B3%95%E6%A1%86%E6%9E%B6.html","content":"\n前言\n\n也大大小小面试过很多场了, 回望觉到应更有章法的记录一些内容，大部分内容来自于培训记录\n\n成功的招聘从两个视角来观察，取两者的交集才是两情相悦\n\n企业要的，企业有的\n个人有的，个人要的\n\n企业用人其实是三重匹配：职位匹配，团队匹配，文化匹配。\n职位匹配：一个人的能力、经验、知识背景跟职位的要求是吻合的，这是能把工作做好的基础所在\n团队匹配：能快速融合被接纳并发挥作用，越是团队领导，对团队匹配的要求就越高。\n\n举例子候选人可能非常资深，但他已经习惯了一个成熟的职业化团队，而不是一个经验不足，快速成长的团队去教。想干掉随企业成长的老员工也不那么容易，彼此都不舒服，也很难有好结果。这也是很多职业经理人空降时，经常把团队换成自己的下级，这样虽有不合适之嫌，但团队匹配顺理成章地完成了\n\n文化匹配：企业文化和个人价值观的匹配。更多出现在决策层的职业经理人，合伙人之间。就不展开来说明了。\n工作早期更多是讲职位匹配，随着成长，团队/文化匹配就越来越近。很多人会觉得在某个公司工作痛苦，并不是他驾驭不了这个工作本身，而是个体价值观和组织的价值有冲突，这种情况下一般的建议是，有能力的话换一个更好的工作，因为这种情况下是没有前途的。\n定能力要求\n应该用流程性思维对用人要求进行梳理\n\n\n流程性思考，梳理职责\n用流程性思考，把职责转变为动作的流程\n动作理出来了，能力自然而然就产生了\n\n与流程性思维产生对照的是经验性思维，换种说法是头脑风暴法。头脑风暴法的问题是，它不是一种系统性思考问题的方法，在思考过程中中容易出现遗漏。\n面试阶段\n1vs1的面试考察大概分两类，（行为）追问大法与（场景）挖坑大法，你会只用一种么？我想不会，明明是混合大法。\n群面就来不及开展细致追问，明显是场景考察法\n开场白\n开场白-双方自我介绍，3-5分钟，作为面试者你可以准备一个3分钟的自我介绍\n行为面试法\n开启提问\n候选人分享成功案例\n追问\n核心是 不断追问细节，以判断候选人的行为方式，思维方式和能力素质，算是了解候选人能力和过去经历最有效的方法。\n了解背景\n\n团队当时有多少人，平均年限多久，团队过往业绩水平如何，汇报给谁\n公司的行业地位是怎样的\n\n任务的难度系数\n\n上级布置了什么目标，你怎么分解这个目标的\n要完成这个目标，难点在哪里\n阻碍你出业绩的难点是什么，获得了哪些上级的支持\n\n行动细节\n\n当时怎么考虑的\n如何做，寻求了谁的帮助，计划和执行出了偏差如何调整的\n如何与兄弟部门配合的\n出现分歧了么，如何说服他人的\n\n业绩评价\n\n最终取得了什么成绩\n上级如何评价你的\n个人认为自己好的地方，不足之处有哪些\n重来一次的话，怎么可以做的更好\n\n场景模拟法\n\n\n设定一定的假设情景，要求候选人对一系列相关问题（问题来自于工作或工作所需的某种素质体现）进行回答\n\n自己设计的情景，通常涉及对应聘者多种能力的考察，要想效果好，你必须对情景设计好，且清楚重点考察的方面\n\n\n\n也是结构化面试的一种特殊形式，通常对问题有预先的答案\n\n\n技巧是增加冲突来考察\n\n\n收尾10分钟\n\n还有什么问题想问（关于公司，面试官本人）\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"颈部观感差异解读","url":"/%E9%A2%88%E9%83%A8%E8%A7%82%E6%84%9F%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html","content":"\n抛开长相和说话的语言谈吐不说，只是站在那里，就让人觉得有气质和贵气，有个部位必须好看，那就是脖子。\n脖子也是观察年龄的一个有效点：女性从23-25开始出现细微颈纹，现在针对脖子的化妆保养品还不够多或有效。\n好看的脖子有何特点\n脸型可方可圆，可稍大或娇小，但脖子一定是细长的。尤其是对传统服装的驾驭，只有脖子够细长的人，才能真正穿出贵气感。脖子修长的男生不仅会有挺拔感，还会显高，也更能驾驭霸道总裁，都市精英或富二代角色。\n符合比例\n\n\n要让脖子尽量细长，但也要符合身材比例，9.4cm被认为是长度的平均值。测量从下巴到锁骨的距离，超过9.4cm就算长的了。当然这跟身材比例也有关系，头很小的人，脖子也可以相应短一点，相反则可更长。但最好不要超过1/2（下图的宋慧乔AD长度也没到脸部的二分之一，但她占了下颌角距离CD的便宜），平衡感最重要。\n\n下巴到锁骨（下图AD）的距离，接近脸长的1/2，就是标准脖长，\n\n除了长度，宽度也会影响美感。一般来说，女生脖子占头宽一半，男生占3/5。简单点来说，不超过两眼尾\n\n故用眼妆来扩大眼睛的长度，把原本的眼睛拉长，也是一招\n\n\n\n下颌角边露出脖子处（即C点）作为脖长的终点，看C点到锁骨的长度（即CD）, 这也是为什么宽脸显脖子短的原因\n\n长脖治理策略\n治本策略\n瘦脸\n首要任务仍是瘦脸，紧致面部轮廓。V型窄脸因为和脖子衔接流畅，C点更高，更易显得脖子长，厚实的肌肉或脂肪造成的宽大下颌角自然吃亏。瘦脸的方法无非减肥和医美手段，大家都懂。\n体态训练\n耸肩，驼背，脖子前探，会视觉上直观缩短本身就不长的脖子。不要脖子前倾（封面图）\n拍照或训练体态，有个小口诀，挺沉靠：挺腰挺胸，沉肩，头略往后靠。忽略任一个都达不到最佳\n\n拍照时歪头或侧脸，拉伸并露出一侧肩颈线也有利于表现\n\n治标策略\n衣着\n\n看清锁骨时\n\n在视觉上，下颌角举例肩部（CD）的距更容易被定义为脖子长度，故下颌角不够高或有肉堆积，看起来自然显短\n\n看不清锁骨时\n\n\n当看不清锁骨时，如你穿了较高的领子，但露出了耳垂，那么耳垂E，到脖肩转折点G的高度，也常备来看作脖子长度（EG），这时你斜方肌发达会吃亏。\n当衣领开口位置，接近锁骨或肩膀的水平位置，会用衣领的位置F为脖子起点，即脖长EF\n当你既遮住了耳朵和下颌角，又遮住了锁骨，人们就容易用下巴到领口的高度作为脖子长度，这是最短的一个长度（AF），悲催！\n衣着总结\n\n深V领短脖子友好\nU型领也值得拥有，线条柔和且也能遮斜方肌\n\n吊带露前胸肉多，也可以分散注意力，大面积肉色混淆脖子轮廓，也吸睛，还吸鼻血\n翻领比立领高领好，选圆领也要向下挖\n发型\n头发是掩人耳目的利器，不光能遮脸，还能遮脖子，需要讲究技巧。中长发两束散在脖子两侧，模糊了脖子真实长度和粗度，但注意不要把两只耳朵都遮住\n不建议刚到斜方肌或脖子中间的短发（起不到混淆效果），在锁骨附近过于臃肿会失分，太卷曲无法模仿脖子弧度的的发行也会失分。\n总结\n所以影响脖子视觉长度有几个关键位置，耳垂E，下颌角露脖点C，下巴A，脖根转折点G，锁骨D。其中最高的位置是耳垂E，最低的位置是锁骨D**，最长的脖长是ED**，通过选择性的遮盖和突出，就能影响视觉长度。聪明的你是否已经有了启发？\n视觉上尽量利用耳垂到锁骨的高度ED来做脖子的长度，这就是芭蕾丸子头的好处\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"颜值vs身材","url":"/%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BCvs%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90.html","content":"\n娱乐圈常有大美人、小美人之分，似乎有一个隐含要求是，大美人不仅要脸好看，身材也要足以「够震慑」，热巴的身材为她的整体形象加分良多。小美人即使脸很过关，也常因为身板和头身比被认为够不上大美人。文章更多从女性主角角度来剖析，女拳大师自行跳开就是，为悦己者容、饮食男女才是常情。\n脸和身材哪个更重要？\n对女性整体魅力来说，脸和身材哪个更重要？\n结论先行颜值派\n\n颜值天注定，身材靠努力\n\n\n来自女性的声音：要脸，身材我自己做主，别告诉我身材不好指的是身高150cm。魔鬼的身材常有，而天使的脸庞不常有。刘亦菲的脸蛋和柳岩的身材，你选哪一个？二者不能齐于一身都会有遗憾，但刘亦菲即使她年龄渐长，身材有点发福走样，神仙颜值就是神仙颜值，只有一个刘亦菲。\n\n小姐姐喜欢的不是肌肉男，她们只是喜欢好看的肌肉男，健身房吸引她们的不是肌肉，还是那些长得好看的小哥哥，身材只能算做一个加分项而已。\n\n明显是脸蛋重要，身材对男人标准有很多种（有维密天使般的性感、也有平胸长腿的骨感等等好身材），有些男的喜欢胖的，有些喜欢瘦的或者匀称的，但是脸蛋对男人标准只有一个，这是绝大部分男人内心的想法，只不过碍于现实社会和自己个人情况没办法而已。\n身材 (除了身高) 可以通过天然的方式(锻炼)做出本质改变，但是脸蛋是爹妈给的，亮肤祛痘还行，但天生脸蛋长得歪瓜裂枣的再怎么也没法改，除非整容。脸蛋好看给人的感觉是直观刺激，身材是偏气质这一块的，身材好的人骨子里透着自信。脸蛋与身材，就是一个“天赋”和“努力”的关系。\n有采访者说：身材只要不要太胖，长得好看的话，魅力绝不会拉胯。人长得很好看，谁有功夫看她有没有肉啊。\n对立派\n\n这显然是上了年纪的一群\n\n身材永远比颜值重要，身材是一种状态美，而脸是一种结构美和皮相美，脸即使再好看，随着年龄的增长，衰老是必然的，面部结构一定会产生衰老痕迹，不再是18岁时的娇嫩。一个不注重保持身材的女人，颜值再高也就十年保质期。\n实验研究\n\n科学家通过将脸和身材拆出来单看综合魅力评分研究过的结论：女性的整体魅力中，脸的影响占比47%，身材32%—— 脸的重要性比较明显地高于身材。一个脸好看身材不好的人，我们更可能称之为「身材不太行的美女」，但身材好但脸不好看的人，我们很多时候只会称为「身材好看的人」。身材其实加分很少的，可以参考瘦下来的高晓松。\n为何脸部对整体魅力至关重要，因为其传递出来的功能、信息更为丰富。面部有丰富的表情，可以是自信的、挑逗的、楚楚可怜的表情，让我们了解「这是一个怎样的人」而不止步于「这是一张怎样的脸」，从而更入迷，更深入喜爱。当然面部细节同样也反映健康特征，对称性高的脸，往往对应更健康的基因；女性化程度高的脸，往往对应更旺盛的生殖功能……相对于面部，身材传递的信息，更「价值观导向」些：我们是否健康生活，是否好好锻炼，是否积极自信？奥运冠军并不是硬照审美杀手，但大家都觉得身材好看，因为很健康又有活力。\n身材牌不好打\n身材和脸虽然拆出来单看，脸也只有47%的整体影响，整体看实际看，其实脸对颜值的影响还要更大（大家衣着都保守的情况下）。\n身材之所以常被感觉「没那么重要」，一个是因为很多拥有好身材的人「不会打」，另一个，也是因为身材好这张牌，本身就不那么好打。身材好虽然很加分，但展现起来确实掣肘比较多。科学实验表明，在大家更多裸露的状态下，身材对魅力的评分影响会增加。泳装状态下，身体吸引力重要性明显提升，但在生活中，我们穿着不仅要考虑凸显有点，还要考虑得体。\n\n身材好的人如果随便穿，也不太看得出身材加分。\n\n纯欲大热\n即使是身材很占优势的人，往往也很难大大方方地凸显身材，很容易被认为不得体。也难怪，这几年各种各样的「纯欲」风大热，尤其是在东亚较保守的环境下，确实是当下较优解。\n大脑的工作机制\n脸和身材的影响度加起来也不到100%（47%+32%=79%），似乎还有其他影响因素。出现这种情况，跟大脑对信息的处理机制有关。\n先整体后局部\n大脑会先关注整体，然后关注重点，最后才会关注到更细微的细节，比如说头部以上，观察重点在面部，头发的权重肯定要让路。\n短时上下文影响判断\n红花还得绿叶衬，见唐伯虎，对面孔吸引力的判断评分受感知历史信息的影响，在短短几秒钟内产生可测量的影响。\n身脸灵魂依次展开\n男人都是视觉动物，坚挺的胸部和臀部往往是男性心目中完美女神的标配（整体）。这就是男人的天性，那么男人目光也是第一时间的被吸引过去。火辣身材虽然能快速吸引男人的视线，但并不能持续性地引发好感。观赏过后，他们更关心女人的长相和其他优点（细节）。鉴定完毕之后，一旦发现女人除了身材好之外，没有别的特点时，就会转移视线了（短择目的除外）。\n魅力合力评分\n从大脑机理机制上说，有些美人细看缺点是明显，但不影响她们整体风情万种，风格亮眼让人久久难忘。如王祖贤的H身材（长腿但腰不算细胸不大）和她的英气长相构成合力，就形成特色；有些美人则不能说有明显槽点，但整体模糊缺乏重点，合起来却让人记不住也想不起来。\n我们的总体魅力效果，也并不只是各个部分的简单相加，重要的是整体和重点。无论是身材还是脸蛋，虽然你我可能确实有很多「细看不完美」的细节，但更重要的是整体和重点。且当身材和脸形成某种「合力」时，才能彼此加强。比如热巴，她的面孔和身材都是「极尽张扬的浓艳大美女」走向，两者构成合力时，整体效果最佳。杜鹃身材和脸都传递出一种冷淡感，形成了某种合力。反之，浓艳脸麻杆身材肯定会失败。\n身材的胜利时刻\n全面竞争\n现实中，我们往往会更强烈地执着于「看脸」。身材什么时候会更重要呢？\n\n情况一，周围的人脸长得都不错，此时主要靠身材刷出差别，因此身材会变得更重要。明星走红毯时，因为长相普遍在线（不能说都一个水平，但水平普遍偏高），所以身材更容易刷出差异。\n情况二、脸部差异越来越容易被医美拉近，身材、体态差异其实更能让我们「脱颖而出」。\n\n短择垂涎\n科学研究，男性对女性的外表关注点，受长短择偏好影响。长短择中，男性都很注重脸，但在短择关系中，男性对身材的关注度会明显提升，甚至超过看脸。生理上抱着短择心态的男性，更容易被好身材吸引，那么反过来说，（展现）身材好也更容易吸引到短择的男性。\n如果你身材性感，那么一定要“保护”好你的性感，把你的火辣好身材适当地隐藏起来。因为你的性感发挥到长择的对象上，是最聪明的结果。脸是给大家的，身材才是私有得到的。\n年龄分水岭\n基于一众采访，得出对于脸和身材的偏重，是受年龄影响的，可能30岁是一个分水岭。30岁之前更看重脸，毕竟脸是一个人的门面。\n\n有一个20岁的学生，被长的不好看的女生倒追，但身边朋友的女朋友颜值都不错，他觉得拿不出手，走路上不想牵手，不想KISS，亲热过一次还是在关了灯的前提下进行的，看不见脸就没那么难受 😥\n\n但过了30岁之后就觉得，脸面干净就行，更在乎的就是身材了。这时候太瘦的一般不太受欢迎了，有线条成了大家的共识，虽然匀称紧致也有美感。也有28岁的金融分析师声称，曾经被自己高挑白净，黑长直，眼睛大大，笑起来有酒窝的170女朋友迷了很长一段时间，但后来相处久了腻了也就没有那种感觉了。\n说个大实话，外貌在结婚后真的不重要，看多了就没多大感觉，只要不是太丑就好。但有趣的灵魂和性格好能让人相处更舒服，身材能让你们婚后一直保持较高的欲望。婚姻对普通人来说不是激情和浪漫，上限落在细水长流的小浪漫，下限落在柴米油盐酱醋茶，没有好性格很难细水长流。性格大于双方家庭，大于身材，大于外貌，是这么个排序顺序。年轻时会看脸也看身材，走过半生，发现，会不会疼你，愿不愿意给你花钱，最重要。\n婚姻的“临界感”\n婚后生活，管理好你们的“临界感”。\n\n\n保持距离感，有自己的独立空间，也让男人偶尔有失去的焦虑感；\n\n\n保持想象感，过于熟悉就容易腻，学会留一手，要让男人对你有想象的空间；\n\n\n保持限制感，尤其是同居之后，要控制性的频率，不要让“吃太饱”。\n\n\n让对方保持一定的“饥渴感”，才会越来越爱。\n普通人塑造健康性\n和普通人同时出现的，绝大多数时候也是普通人。我们不需要因为头身比、身材不如明星，就觉得自己「努力也没用」。比起死磕身边人共有的优势（比如皮肤白、瘦），不如多想想，大家普遍短板是什么，往大家的短板方面用力最容易「脱颖而出」。\n目前，脸部差异越来越容易被医美拉近，身材体态差异其实更能让大家显出不同。另外脸固然可以从硬件是否好看精致完美角度去看（但局部的过分突出只会让整体看起来失衡），也可以从对称性，健康性，元气感等角度去看。觉得自己不好看就研究化妆衣服搭配提升气质，日系韩系欧美系那么多路子，可盐可甜bf风等等等等。\n\n真正高级的照片从不 P 图，过度磨皮会滤掉很多生机。成就高级质感的是肌理，情绪，氛围这些高维度的视觉冲击，并不是无暇。另在充满自信的本我基础上大胆表现迸发出来的浑厚真挚的性格色彩，是一种感染力和张力。真正的美是一种充满故事性的可带动他人的情绪魔力\n\n身体大体能看出一个人的自律程度，因为只要你愿意你想的话，它就可以慢慢变好。自己觉得自己身材不好就减肥塑型；从意义上看，身材几乎藏着一个人的生活，审美观和生活态度。能接纳和欣赏自己，能尊重和挖掘自己的独特美的人，其实会很有吸引力，如辣目洋子。\n我们有怎样的魅力，核心不是我们有什么长相、身材牌，更在于我们怎么打。\n结语\n身材和脸蛋都是皮囊，好看的皮囊千篇一律，有趣的灵魂万里挑一。现实中的确高颜值更稀缺。\n真正的美不是复刻，是整体的协调和细节的质感，不是某个固定的部位，是鲜活的生动的感觉，也可以是形体结构之美，亦可是深刻的精神内涵。容貌无法选择，但可以选择做自己！\n经常有人在网络上讲：岁月从不败美人。可是时光老人会打败任何人，不败的是光影留下的形象快照，这个形象可以定格永远年轻，且人们喜欢的是演员塑造的人物而不是演员本身，你看见的也是荧幕形象不是私底形象。所谓英雄末路，美人迟暮一定会发生，只有你内心的从容淡然，高傲与自信，是可以对抗岁月的。从容处世淡如云，心志如松志不分，若再常怀坦荡真情，就更好了。\n性吸引力研究排序\n简而言之，女性喜欢阿尔法男，男性喜欢生育能力强的女性，这是底层逻辑\n女选男因素排序\n身高、颜值、社会经济地位（扭曲力场因素）、声音\n男选女因素排序\n脸、腰臀比（年轻的指征）、腿、胸\n性吸引力抽样预测\n$受欢迎概率=\\frac{A+1}{N+2}$\nA：被喜欢的次数\nN：接触的次数\n参考\n1.新浪新闻 好脸蛋vs好身材：科学看，哪个更能帮你进阶美人？ ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"风浪越大鱼越贵","url":"/%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%AA%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%A7%E9%B1%BC%E8%B6%8A%E8%B4%B5.html","content":"\n有人生在罗马，有人一生牛马。人生升舱虽不是一代都能完成，但努力攀爬好过躺平打转。与天斗，与地斗，与人斗，其乐无穷。与己斗，最大的坑是你根本不知道自己在坑里。\n财富是勇敢者的游戏\n弱者总以为别人在欺负他，总以为他错过了最好的时代，总以为富人年轻的时候遍地是黄金。乱世的时候他说饭都吃不饱，怎么能变富呢？盛世的时候他说钱都被抢光了，怎么能变富呢？\n第一批富人乌鸡变凤凰从哪来的，原来可都是抹鼻涕吃土豆。总有一些穷人更爱思考，更能冒险，在找一条别人没走过的路，可能家破人亡粉身碎骨的路，而后他咬咬牙，真的上路了。命运齿轮转动胜出的是动脑筋，在这个国度，能吃苦的人真的不缺。\n\n之前下海的人，都是边缘化的人，待业在家活不下去的人。没到这个地步的人，全在好单位全在挤破脑袋分房子、搞编制、抢铁饭碗，但凡有点身份，都不至于去路边卖茶叶蛋。那个年代做生意不容易贷到款，可能都是要卖房子筹钱。创业永远都是勇敢者的游戏，装备从来不是免费的，不敢拼命换，就不要抱怨不公平。\n\n穷人赚钱难，常因从头到尾都在追求一个确定的东西：到底做什么能赚钱？就像在追求一个按钮，按一下马上能变富。如果你总问别人今年干啥能赚钱，抱歉你干什么都赚不到钱，世界上能赚到钱的事，抛开坑蒙拐骗抢，都是供需和稀缺决定的，稀缺伴随着投入结果的不确定性。能赚到大钱的事，一定是极度不确定的。只有不确定性才能帮你把对手拦在门外，只有不确定能不能赚钱才能帮你淘汰掉最多的同行，使你独享那一份红利。\n发财得争\n\n人太厚道也会阻碍发财，很多人的传统观念，当一个穷的叮当响的好人，不掉价值，但做一个自私的坏人，会让自己颜面扫地，甚至丢祖先的脸面。一部分底层人擅长受苦，但不擅长争。做好人为什么难发财，因为发财就得争，好人不善争。\n老一辈里人中拿贫寒换口碑大有人在，做好人是要付出成本的，这个成本就是吃亏，争就必然树敌，就有人说你不是个好人。纵观混的好的10个人中，有一个是凭背景的，一个靠祖坟选的好的，有几个是选对行业深耕的，剩下的五六个都是凭狠凭争凭不择手段上去的。上去的这帮人论天资不过平平，但意识形态里，把君子固穷这条早就删除了。他别墅游艇离你远，你骂他他根本听不见。\n很多人不是不努力，只不过要么受限于能力运气祖坟，要么受限于良心，所以得不到实质的改变。\n无用知识提携命运\n很多人热衷于考证提升自己，比如学会计，学英语，每个人都知道它好，有用，这自然会引来很多对手逐步将利润拉平。考证是确定的，报班也是确定的。钢琴，数学，舞蹈提升都量化看得见。但你说三观提升怎么看？没法看，文史哲有什么用，怎么变现？\n真正能改变命运的恰恰是那些看起来没什么用的知识，学了之后不清楚短时间有什么回报的知识，只有这种长远的不急功近利的不只图眼前的不确定好不好的知识，才能让你甩开大多数对手，才能让你摸清楚规则后再同场竞技，才能让你在框架的层级上几十倍几百倍的超过对手。\n例如经济学就是底层框架，人和国家拆开看，都是代价换收益，如何用最小的代价达到最大的收益，才是大智慧。很多人的努力是走一步看一步的努力，什么有用学什么的努力，他们无比精明，自认为从来不在没用的地方花精力，但恰恰是这种精明误导了自己。死死的盯着脚下，生怕走错一步，却在大是大非的人生路口无脑前行，苦行半生两手空空，人生最重要的是判断方向，判断对错，并且敢用全身的力量去押注大势。你说你很厉害，那你敢不敢押呀。为什么不敢，还是没学透不懂。\n草根反人性之路\n肉体的勤奋生活的艰辛，更多是逃避选择的借口，我这么勤奋还赚不到钱，一定是这个社会错了。为什么赚钱这么难，因为很多人根本不懂，要在最关键的地方努力摆脱贫困，就要逆天改命。为什么摆脱贫困这么难，因为贫穷是一个陷进，符合基因限定的陷阱，让你不知不觉的陷进去，它太让人舒服了，太符合人性了，很多人根本意识不到自己在坑里。穷了就想省钱，而越省越找不到突破口，穷了你就想稳定，越稳定就越是抓不住新机会，于是陷入恶性循环。一定要摆脱一定要走出去，怎么办？三个字：反人性。\n反者道之动\n不是思维模式决定命运，思维模式正是命运。当下的思维也正是当下的命运，如果你想逆天改命，就一定要逆自己，颠倒你一如既往的思维，相反才是道的动力，主动的反才是你逆风翻盘的关键。你不愿意看书，变成你可以看书，你不愿意社交，变成你可以社交，那些你羡慕的做不到的都可以从现在开始变成做得到。大脑空空，行动如风，无因无果，无事无我。\n首先扔掉玻璃心，世界上最大的幻觉，就是你觉得你在独立思考，实际上只是有人在陪你玩游戏。\n性价比的魔幻\n\n为什么有人喜欢性价比高的东西啊，因为他们觉得自己懂，不在没必要的地方花钱。不对你再想一想，是谁提出这个词？是商家呀。正因为你没钱，商家为了卖东西给你，想法设法照顾你的自尊心，才造出了性价比这个词，他反复给你强调，你不买贵是因为你比别人更懂（哪里需要揉哪里，这才是顶级的营销技巧）。\n\n仔细想一想，你为什么有时间研究性价比，因为你的时间不值钱呀，否则你就不会把时间和精力花在研究产品上，商家跟你说你才是最懂行的，他们都人傻钱多，不对，一个人要是真傻，他就不会钱多。他更有钱，抛开运气和传承，就是因为他比你聪明，比你坚韧比你能吃苦，比你有远见。你觉得他傻，只是因为你看不懂而已。你视野不够开阔，你时间成本不够大。你需要一个理由将一切合理化。商家就帮你找了一个。你需要一个以自我为中心的幻觉，商家就帮你营造一个。有什么样的受众，就会有什么样的产品。\n美国大片也多是草根拯救世界，半生平淡碌碌无为，突然被蜘蛛咬了一口，马上有了超能力，行侠仗义，万人敬仰。因为每个草根都觉得他和超人之间就差了一个机会，每个情节，每个对话，每一帧画面都是精心设计的，让人陷入幻觉而不自知。你不是草根，你只是在通往伟大的路上。\n玻璃心是很脆弱的，看破不说破。越是草根，就越脆弱，就越在乎别人的看法，就越相信自我幻觉，就越难以逃开这个坑，无法超我审观察自己，敢于扔掉玻璃心，是能赚到钱的第一步。\n不要为面子付费\n把面子扔在一边，越穷就越好面子，越怕别人看不起，越会买贵的东西充门面就越会导致没有钱。面子不是别人给的，是自己给的。所谓他看不起你，实际是你自己看不起自己。不要管面子，不要为面子付费，看不起就看不起，只有你知道自己的目标是什么，你可以付出多大的代价，真正让一个人刮目相看的是这些。\n舍得为知识付费\n本金太少，你买任何理财产品都没有用。最好的投资对象是自己，最好的回报是知识，把吃喝玩乐的钱省下来去买书去学习，去找好的老师，一定要舍得在学习方面花钱，买个奢侈品刷卡是浪费，买个学习产品刷卡是借力，最好的知识一定是很贵很贵的。贵有贵的道理，贵才能节约机会成本，才能让你少走弯路。钱可以再生，而时间不行。\n提早踩坑\n该踩坑就踩坑，不要怕走冤枉路，不要怕被割韭菜，人生该踩的坑一个也少不了，穷的时候不踩富的时候一定会踩，而且还会更大。小孩摔一个跟头马上爬起来，老年人摔一个跟头可能就骨裂了，吃亏一定要趁早，越早试错成本就越小。看清世界的代价就越小，你都那么穷了，别人还能坑你点什么呢。小的地方尽量多吃亏尽量多踩坑，才能快速摸清规则积累经验，才能在人生最重要的节点突飞猛进，一骑绝尘。总有一天你会发现，当年那些过不去的坎，今天连个小水坑都算不上。\n寻找不确定性\n寻找不确定性，越穷就越安于现状，前面说过了这个世界上真正能给你带来超额回报的，一定是不确定性。但这有个前提，就是你需要有足够的判断力，而判断力就需要踩坑需要拼命的积累，需要找最好的老师，别人不能忍的你能忍，别人舍不得的你舍得，别人不敢下注的你敢下注，这样你才有突围的机会，越穷就越不要追求稳定，而是追求未来。越穷就也不要用时间换报酬，而是要用结果换报酬。\n切换生态系统\n人是环境的奴隶。很多东西你觉得那是你的喜好是你的判断，不对，那只是你从小到大的环境强加给你的，只是你没有意识到，你的一举一动，为人处事喜怒哀乐都会被环境不断的影响，以至于让你觉得这就是你。\n\n你觉得自己是个旱鸭子，只是因为你生在内地；你觉得豆腐脑不能加韭菜花，只是因为你生在南方；你觉得开个大奔回去就是光耀门楣，只是因为你周围的人都这么认为。鱼最难意识到的就是水的存在，所以你一定要有超我的意识，站在上帝的视角重新审视自己，重新审视你本来的样子。\n\n既然环境可以塑造人，为什么不能塑造成我想要塑造的样子呢，为什么不能主动选择一个塑造自己的环境呢？你要做的就是切换生态系统，离开你的初始环境，离得越远越好，去最大的城市，去竞争最激烈的地方，去顶尖人才最多的地方，去你之前想去而从来没去过的地方，去看去模仿去学习。你可能不知道什么是对的，但你一定知道这样大方向肯定是对的；你可能不知道过去哪些是错的，但你一定知道大概率很多地方都错了，在超我意识指导下奋力向前。\n6 in 1\n只要是舒服的享受的习惯的，你就不要做。草根阶段在你舒适区的一定是有问题的，但正是因为它符合你的习惯，你才意识不到他有问题。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"高效团队和亚马逊经验","url":"/%E9%AB%98%E6%95%88%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F.html","content":"\n文章不分来源于infoq的摘取 https://www.infoq.cn/article/MYEKmcClGEXvKRQ7LWNY\n\n\n业务模式不是孤立存在的，企业要想基业长青，不仅要有好的业务模式，还要有正确的人，永不熄火的创新引擎，既快又好的决策机制，及强有力的组织文化。\n企业成败关键在人，人是根本，战略都是人想出来的，事情都是人做出来的，始于老板，终于组织文化。\n\n你的人就是你你的企业，用什么样的人，你的企业就会变成什么样子\n积极上进的工程师能产生数倍于“普通工人”的价值，二者的区别就是前者能主动发现问题、而后者只会按指令办事\n\n高效团队\n\n软件开发迭代周期和频率越来越快\n管理问题\n\n团队越来越大，分布在不同区域\n执行力问题，流动问题，成长问题\n\n\n\n不是所有公司都需要高效团队，但当处理的业务复杂度，交互复杂度，或服务用户数越来越多，就需要高效团队了。要又快又好，还要降低成本，如上提及的管理问题也在凸显。\n如何搞成高效团队\n\n搞敏捷\n用权威，干不完不用下班\n使命感价值观，要不停地努力，这是对你好\nKPI，996，钉钉 等等\n\n如上保证不了你的公司你的团队去到更高的位置，解决更复杂更难的问题，有更有价值的产出，终极的问题还是在团队的人上，再看团队中的事，再之团队领导力。\n\n高效团队的人\n找到高效的人，怎么弄，是教育有问题的人，还是培养有潜力的人，还是花时间找优秀的人？\n招聘错误的人破坏性极大，正确的人让团队管理和建设变得简单有效。不是说不能应急随便招人，但明天招来的人，比今天招来的更差，就是一种错误的方向。\n什么样的人才是好的人\n\n能搞定事的人，能独立完成，用最小的成本完成\n讲方法的人。人和人最大的区别，就是方法。方法从总结和学习而来，讲方法的人，平时一定会总结和归纳出很多的套路，不管是编程还是解决问题，眼光必然更为长远\n沟通能力好的人。除了能听指令完成工作，更要是能把模糊和复杂的东西表达清楚，能说服别人的人，就更好了。\n有领导力的人，坚持高标准，喜分享，思考，挑战，有全局感。如果只能要一个的话，那么就是标准高，标准高的人一般都有领导力，有改进的愿望，想把这个事情做好。\n\n技术人员分层\n\n\n技工：能使用的操作技术，并能按时出活\n\n\n工程师：了解原理能解决难题，自动化和规模化，降低工程成本提升效率\n\n\n专家：有探路能力，贡献更好更优的方法，能创新和简化，提高标准，并能抽象标准化\n\n\n领导者：创造价值和利润，吸引人才和资源，组织并带动团队，提升整体效率，感知变化和挑战，抓重点，洞悉本质\n\n\n怎么找到人的优势\n有这么一个顺序：特长，兴趣，方法，经验，勤奋\n首先是找特长，人与人之间的差别是很可怕的事情，这是不容否认的。例如说听音乐，有些人就是会比一般人对这个事情敏感。\n次之就是找到有兴趣的人，就是那种不服输的精神。接着才到方法，多数人如果懂方法的话，有时间观念，会做计划，不磨增，对做过的事总结，喜欢自己找答案，厘清因果关系，追求原理，懂原理的人会一通百通，能突破自己的天花板。\n然后是经验，经验有很多东西，受过良好教育，不错的工作经历。最后才是勤奋。但勤奋解决不了太多的问题，不可能把你所有方面往上提，经验也不太可能，只有前面三种，才有可能是一个人的主导优势。你要找的人，或多或少一定要有1到2个点。\n核心成员\n驱动者\nOwner要有如下素质，能做出贡献（效应），带动团队，创新优化，前瞻能力，抓重点，简化，标准化\n\n简化，标准化问题，才可能规模化，平台化\n\n优化者\n中坚力量，对要做的事有热情，会想各种方法推动事情，有如下特质。\n\n探路能力：只要方向没问题，没有路也能趟出条路来。\n贡献方法\n解决难题\n提高标准\n\n贡献者\n执行力量，对要做的事有丰富的经验，能做出正确的判断和决策。能降低成本提升效率，防火胜于救火。\n除去如上三种人外，剩下的人都是可以替代的，不是核心团队成员，只是你的流水兵员工。\n亚马逊的人才观\n实干家（要builder而非dreamer）\n\n既有创新，又能实干\n有多种能力，才华出众\n永远充满好奇，爱探索\n\n主人翁\n\n着眼长远，极有担当\n在薪酬结构上，侧重股权激励而非现金激励，真正成为公司股东，激发员工的创造性和发自内心的主人翁责任感\n租户和主人翁的差别\n\n租户可能干出不买圣诞树底座，直接把圣诞树钉在地板上的事，房东自己绝不会这么短视\n不少企业高管，关心当下利益而不是长远利益，更像租户。例如不会思考少投入多产出，何必费心费力严控费用呢，反正又不是自己的钱\n\n\n\n高效团队中的事\n要增加效率，要么增加有用功，要么就降低总功。\n在亚马逊，程序员拿到需求的第一句话就是，我为什么要做这个需求，这个需求有什么用。如果你的组织都在追问为什么的话，你的效率可以提高到很快。小时候父母总是给我们压了不少他们所谓的理想，但你不去思考的话，不去经历，永远不知道父母为什么要告诉我要学这个，要干那个，带团队也是一样的道理。\n提升效率的三板斧\n抓重点\n做好数据和用户分析，找到最重要最有价值的事，用最小成本验证。\n只要你抓住重点，可以犯一万个错误，阿里犯过的错很多，但重点抓得对，方向对了，犯的一些错误也都无所谓。不要觉得什么都能干，或者跟竞争对手同质竞争，应想想怎么样干更高级一些。\n移动互联网到来的时候，两家公司都受到很大的冲击。一个是百度，一个是Google，广告是这两个搜索公司赖以生存的东西，都要迎头调整生存之道。Google干了一个事，开源android操作系统，百度干了一个事，百度外卖。Google不是个开源公司，死了200多个产品，都不开源，为什么安卓要开源，不开源现今手机市场就没它什么事了，开源让天下人去跟苹果或微软这样的公司抗衡，保住市场。百度没有抓住重点，掉队了。\n有时公司人多了以后，就会去想，这些人我得给他安排点什么事，不能让他闲着。如果你团队人少，你就会想另一个事，我的团队做不过来这么多，哪一些更重要？要想促成高效团队，就要让自己饿着，让自己条件受限，这样才会想着用工具，才会想着简化，才会想着抓重点。\n最能产生影响力的事\n最能产生影响力的事，恰恰是用户们尚且不知提出的需求。必须从用户的利益出发进行发明创造，想要探索可能性，就必须聆听自己内心的想象力。\nEcho和Alexa如此，亚马逊云服务也是如此。苹果手机也是如此。\nBig Wins\n指引发明创造的是直觉，勇气，灵感和好奇心（不是人人能干），通往成功的道路绝不可能是笔直的，尤其是带来重大突破的颠覆性创新，更需要保持耐心，给予足够的时间和空间。\n\n从有想法到上市，AWS经历了2年，Kindle三年半，Echo用了4年\n\n发明创造就像硬币的两面，丰厚的回报只是表面光鲜的一面，背面的困难艰辛，往往超乎常人的想象。\n与发明创造相伴而来的是风险，既然失败在所难免，只有规模巨大的成功（Big Wins）才能弥补多次失败带来的损失。规模巨大的必要条件是什么？就是简单本身。\n\n真正在做的过程中，大胆创意越做越小。各种绕道而行，但规模巨大不可回避。\n在撰写新闻通稿时，就必须深入挖掘可能遇到的困难和障碍是什么，制定必须坚持的设计原则（不能回避的困难）\n写新闻通稿还附上FAQ，对过程中这些思考及决策时可能会被问到的问题进行详细阐述\n\n自动化\n简化导致标准化，标准化导致自动化，自动化导致规模化。\n没有规模化就不会有效率，五年前亚马逊全球机房虚拟机一共有2400w台，两三千工程师运维2000w服务器，是不可能用人工来运营的，只能用人去管程序，程序去管机器。\n降成本\n去除支持性的工作，提高组件质量和重用，建立持续改善的文化。\n当你组织里，支持性工作越多，健康度就越糟糕，产出性的人越多，就越好。\n两种软件团队管理方式\n\n\n电影工作组\n个体有相当高智力和创造力，人们努力工作，且可享受工作。经理了解把一个伟大的软件组合起来的每一个碎片，他的角色是鼓舞大家，守护着方向（vision）\n\n\n小商品工厂\n认为人本性懒惰，逃避工作，对集体目标不关心，管理者需要以强迫，处罚，指导，金钱利益激发工作源动力。\n公司对实实在在软件开发漠不关心，想要把理想中的软件开发运作变成他们看得见的图表。对员工不信任，流程很重，组织单元和人员很多。\n\n\n用数据做支撑\n打造跨部门，跨层级，端到端的实时数据指标体系\n\n发现问题，解决问题，甚至自动完成常规决策\n发现问题专人自觉快速解决\n聚焦于因\n\n\n很多企业，组织精力都被消耗在日常经营管理上，基层经理到高管都特别忙，开各种会听各种汇报，处理各种问题\n借助于数据指标体系及智能管理工具，常规性经营决策都可以自动完成，组织精力就被极大释放出来，可以用于思考未来，布局长远，持续提升\n开会的重点通常在于讨论未来，例如如何解决反复出现的棘手问题和制定影响深远的重要决策，如何推动客户体验升级及组织能力持续提升\n\n只有被衡量，才能被提升\n今年相比去年如何实现提升？若内容相同，如何做到效率更高，成本更低。希望推陈出新，怎么实现客户体验提高。要有具体的工作计划，还要有明确清晰的衡量指标及有挑战性的提升目标\n\n\n新时代的组织能力\n在组织能力的杨三角3.0中，也是提及平台+小团队的模式（2.0中已强调授权，使命，小而精干的团队），拆解大的问题，全功能小团队，专注和简化。\n亚马逊的组织文化\n\n自己的东西要自己用（Eat your own dog food）\n两个披萨还喂不饱的团队，团队尺寸就大了，做的事情就要分解\n简化和自动化\n做产品前先逆向工作(working backwards)，准备好Press Release（新闻稿），FAQ，用户手册（User Manual ），每份不超过2页纸，不能用图表达。这要求着你的产品要是简单的，这些都可以约束提升效率\n\n创新创造的组织文化匹配–亚马逊解读\n创新创造有时需要打破大公司既有的组织架构，还原到创业的初始状态\n\n全职，最难做到\n\n挂帅人不能全情投入（有自己其它职位岗位，工作量满），这样的项目往往雷声大雨点小\n\n\n跨职能\n集中办公\n\n每一个重大突破的创新背后，都有一位卓越的项目负责人，情商，逆商都要高，兼容并包，有效激发个体，激发大家潜能与创造力，把大家拧成一股绳。\n大企业最容易落入的一种陷阱就是一刀切的重型决策机制。基层员工甚至不少中高层领导，都不了解业务的全貌，即便拥有决策权，做出的决策往往也只是局部最优，而非全局最优。组织最高层的几位领导能真正看到全貌，为保证决策质量，大事小事层层上报拍板，这样自然就快不起来，赋能授权也只能是说说而已。\n\n这种情况在传统企业比较常见，因为数字世代组织不同，传统组织设计首要原则本来就不是为了快速灵活，而是为了有效管控\n在贝索斯看来，很多传统企业决策速度慢的根本原因是对决策没有分类，不管轻重缓急，都用一套耗时长，过程繁复的方式进行决策\n对于结果影响不大的，过程可逆，可灵活调整的常规决策，要大胆授权，授权要确保这几个人能把决策做好，谁具体负责，谁就决策\n每个业务目标几个指标，每个衡量指标都有明确的责任人，决策质量都要靠强大的数据指标系统及智能管理工具提供支撑了。智能分析和工具（不搞老法师坐镇）对责任人完全开放，随时调阅查询。在信息达到70%的情况下，就可以大胆决策。不能百分百确定，就做实验低成本试错，实践出真知。\n\n必须要建立数据信息系统，否则如何打破沿袭百年的管控模式和根深蒂固的部门割据，打破人性使然的趋利避害，及时、准确、全面的掌握最佳真相呢\n\n\n另外，职能部门不能说no，如果有问题，职责在职能部门，得想办法解决，办业务部门把事做成，不搞多一事不如少一事的心态，不搞串联审批，直接并行审批。\n\n解决争议靠什么\n\n\n决议过程中，要有既要，让整个团队知道，信息平等很重要\n\n\n不妥协坚持高标准。第一标准是工业标准，第二标准是大公司标准，第三标准才是自己的经验\n\n有用要找个引用看看，谁这么干了\n\n\n\n有效争论\n\n产品原则优先\nThink Big 从更大更高的地方思考问题，大家更容易达到一致\nDivide &amp; Conquer 分而治之，绝大多数讨论没有效率，都是因为把很多东西混在一起讨论\n\nBreakdown the topic 一口一口把大象吃掉，产品，架构，运维请分开讨论\nwalk before run 从0到1，再从1到10，功能先做对，不要在讨论功能时，用性能来进行争论\n\n\nReference &amp; Data 权威引用和数据说话\n\n其它有效实践\n\n文档化：写文档是一种深度思考，会让你自己审视自己的想法\n通过演示展示工作，分享知识交流心得，接收意见改进产品\n1-2-3法则：自己处理1小时内没有思路，找人讨论，2小时内没有结果，上升至团队\n\n多说一嘴No PPT\n\n英文传意能力弱，中文PPT信息还是很大的，不可不加怀疑奉若圭臬\n\n\n只写要点时，思考往往浮于表面，内在逻辑都得靠现场讲（这就涉及英文的传意能力了，老外也特别喜欢提3C，4P等缩写用词缩写造概念，PPT信息量低）\n讲的人轻松，听的人难真正理解，之后再看，仍不知所云\n叙述问迫使阅读人深入思考，开会讨论时，也不需要讲。每个人按自己的阅读节奏，认知模式，自己读就好。高管们很难一言不发听别人讲完，经常打断别人。有时他们提的问题，其实后面就有回答，只是暂时还没讲到。既然每个人认知方式和节奏不一样，不如大家都默读，有问题记一边，看完再一起讨论。\n完成高质量的6页叙述文，并非易事，需要与人讨论反复修改，常看常新，一两天是不够的\n决策能力的培养和提升，需要不断练习\n拒绝官僚主义\n\n控制非直接人员编制\n控制费用，让人浮于事的官僚主义无处藏身\n简化流程\n\n\n\n思考的过程\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队"]}]
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+[{"title":"16型人格的自我修炼","url":"/16%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html","content":"\n近日读了一本关于性格（MBTI）的书，不知道是书的原因，直觉的原因，还是耐性不足（字多）的原因，个人对于九型人格更为看好一点。个人看法九型人格讨论的更为深邃，但9分类做的不易区分，因为对立象限不那么直接。迎合了自己MBTI里直觉型的特点。从职场上来说，MBTI更为流行，实用度也更好，总结为4个维度比9个维度，是要更简单实用些。所以它有它的可取之处。书的名字是 《16型人格的自我修炼》\n渊源\nMBTI，脱自于荣格的理论，荣格是弗洛伊德的学生，但脱离于弗洛伊德发展出自己的流派（弗洛伊德的体系总结于精神病治疗，推广于各个正常场景确实过于偏执，但无法否认开创了一篇天地）\n在荣格的理论中，认为人们有着不同的“原型”本能，这些不同的本能从自身内部驾驭着每一个不同的人，没有哪一个是更重要的，重要的是我们的自然倾向—内在或外在。这两种倾向和他提出的“四个基本心理学功能”—“思想、体验、感觉、直觉”相联系，形成了人的“功能类型”。荣格认为，我们可以把人根据他们的倾向性来进行分类，因为不同的倾向正是不同性格最深层最自然特质的外在表现，这些倾向体现了“你是怎么样的一个人”。\nMBTI最初就用于职场分析。二战期间，男人被送上战场，工厂车间的位置不得不由女人来顶替，MBTI的发明者是一对母女，就希望找到一个性格类型的测试方法，让从未进入工厂的女人们能从事和自己性格相匹配的工作，从而感到舒适而高效。\n简解\n\n内向（Introversion）/外向(Extraversion)，这个最简单，判断人多还是独处时精力最旺盛。\n感觉(Sensing) / 直觉(iNtuition)， 感觉的人关注身边真实存在的细节，看得到摸得着，描述也喜例子。直觉的人更喜欢形而上，类比，喜欢抽象的问题。\n思考(Thinking) / 情感（Feeling）， 原则第一还是周围人的感受第一，这要看不得不做选择时。\n判断（Judging）/感知（Perceiving）， 判断型的人有计划条理，感知型的人更喜散漫自由\n\n\n书评\n书籍的作者不仅仅是MBTI的分析师，更强调了习惯的作用，推崇1w小时理论。对16种性格组合给出了每一类的建议。可惜文字太多，自己没有勇气细细看完。我想这已经够了，读书很多时候花全书20%的时间已经有很大裨益，掌握80%最核心的内容，毕竟大家的时间都非常有限。\nINTP型，书中特别举了SMART原则，精读与泛读，习惯坚持的例子，用以指点，也是警醒。\n每种类型，作者都旁征博引了她看过的很多其他书中的观点，哪怕是鸡汤类的。起码说明作者真的看了不少书。不过从另一个侧面也显得讲的不能深入浅出，阶段和大多数出书者一样还是小学问。\n各种性格第一印象\n附16种性格类型人的第一印象\n\nINTP 思考者—聪慧深入地分析问题\nENTP 预言家—把点子变成众人的愿景\nENTJ 执行官—一切尽在掌握之中\nINTJ 专家—追求卓越与独特\nENFJ 赠与者—将每一个人的潜力发挥到极致\nINFJ 指导者—将光亮带入他人的黑暗\nENFP 启发者—天下没有不可能的事\nINFP 哲学家—生活在自己的理想世界里\nESTP 实干家—充满干劲解决周遭问题\nISTP 手工者—冷静观察却迅速行动\nESFP 表演者— 生活就是一个巨大的舞台\nISFP 艺术家—展示有形作品以丰富内心世界\nESTJ 管家—让当下的事情有条不紊地进行\nISTJ 检察员—细致谨慎地执行好现有规则\nESFJ 照顾者—热情主动地帮助他人操持一切\nISFJ 护卫者—细致周到呵护他人\n\nINTP\n自己做了一次测试，INTP， 学者型 – 聪颖机智的解决问题。\n潜在的弱点：\n\n\n喜欢给自己和他人过高的标准和期望\n\n\n过分强调工作，损害家庭的和谐\n\n\n不记得花时间夸奖同事下属或其他人\n\n\n过于理论化不考虑实际情况，受远景规划诱惑，难以具体落实\n\n\n想法太多，不知道哪些切实可行\n\n\n有时没注意到他人的情绪感受，给人冷漠，不近人情的印象\n\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理","url":"/95%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84Jobs%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88.html","content":"\n第一次发表于2014.05.18\n\n\n关于Jobs的述说已经够多，网上的一篇电视采访（那会儿Jobs还在运作着他的NeXT公司，未回归苹果），因为时长够长，且Jobs在那耐心并心情大好的侃侃而谈，很值得观看，起码有其亲口述说的早年历史。\n当然这就像没看过MJ打篮球的人，通过那些久远的录像来体味那辉煌时光一样的感觉，毕竟后期的苹果是如此的成功，Jobs作为出类拔萃的CEO，不少果粉只是赶上个末尾或连尾都没追上。\n我想这样的类比是恰当的。\n\n创新的困境\n施乐公司为何不能把图形界面系统项目推广开来？看Jobs如何说。\n他首先是揶揄了一下挤走他的前百事CEO。百事公司可能10年没什么更新，所以产品部门的人说话没什么分量。\n反而营销部门的人，很容易升职从而掌管公司。对于百事来说，这可能不是什么坏事。但是对于垄断科技公司也有这种情况，例如IBM和施乐。即便IBM和Xerox的人能做出更棒的产品，但那又怎样。那些已垄断市场的公司很难再提高业绩，想提高业绩还要靠营销部门。营销部门的人逐渐掌握公司后，产品部门的人被边缘化，公司就丧失了打造优秀的产品的热情和能力。\n而掌权的人一方面缺乏打造优秀产品的技术和能力，而且也非打心底愿意帮客户解决问题。这也是Xerox发生的事情。管理层可能根本不知道计算机是什么，而不过是碰巧赶上了计算机产业的顺风车。导致本来有机会把规模扩大10倍独占整个行业，却失之交臂。\n对于不能感知理解趋势的同事，Jobs的看法是他们在犯糊涂，而不是行业分工的差异。同样放大到公司层面时，解释就变成公司在犯糊涂。公司扩大规模后，就会变得因为遁守旧，他们认为只要遵循流程，就能奇迹般地继续成功，于是开始推行严格的流程制度。很快员工就把遵守流程和纪律当做工作本身。公司也就是这样一步步走下坡路的。当然各个大公司里，都有很懂管理流程的人，但从Jobs的经验来看，优秀的人才是那些一心想着产品的人，虽然这些人很难管理，但光靠流程和制度做不出好产品。\n如何持续创新与天才团队的管理\n聊及组建的Macintosh团队时，主持人发问如何鞭策引导，如何处理事情的轻重缓急，还有什么东西在开发一款产品过程中最被他看中。Jobs出我意外的凝思了好一会儿，又一次以挤走他的百事前CEO来举例子。虽然主持人连珠炮的问了几个问题，但Jobs只注意到了最后一个问题。\n\n吐槽盲目乐观，即认为光凭创意就能取得成功\n\n认为只要想到绝妙的主意，公司就一定可以实现。问题在于**优秀的创意和产品之间隔着巨大的鸿沟。实现创意的过程中，想法会变化甚至变得面目全非。因为你会发现新东西，思考的更深入。去权衡利弊，做出让步和调整**。总有些问题是电子设备解决不了的，是塑料玻璃材料无法实现的。或者是工厂或机器人做不到的。\n设计一款产品，需要把5000个问题装进脑子，梳理尝试各种组合，以获得想要的结果。这个过程很重要，才是真正的魔法所在，而无论你开始时有多少绝妙的主意。优秀人才的辩论，争吵，对抗，合作，相互打磨，磨砺彼此的想法，才输出精美的结果。\n生活中的多数东西，最好的和普通的，差距不超过两倍。但在软硬件行业，这个差距可能在50或100倍（包括人的能耐）。你只要找到5个A player，他们马上会喜欢上彼此合作的感觉，他们会不愿再与平庸者合作。所以你要做的就是找到几个精英，他们就会自己扩大团队。与优秀自信的人合作，不用太在乎他们的自尊。\n你要做的是提醒这些优秀的人回到对应的工作状态和成果，且不能让对方怀疑你的权威性，这其实很难，其实没有多少回旋的操作空间。所以Jobs总是采取最直接了当的方式。\n\n一定不能用质疑他们能力的方式去说，但也不能给太多空间解释为什么东西不够好（从虎嗅哥们的文章中提取）\n\n首先他是只管成功，不关心是非的人，如果你也是这样，那就尽管学他吧。当然他也拉得下脸，只要你能拿出足够说服力的证据，敢直接批评别人的人同样不怕犯错。\n\n你（管理者）需要关心的是：we do the right thing。\n\n在乔布斯的团队中，也有人咒骂他，他的解释，是每个人对高度紧张产出过程的持续容忍度不同，但就算是走的人，可能也不会否认当初的过程是其人生非常高效和难忘/难以替代的一段。\n除去人的基本面判断，激情和创新能力，还有一点应对压力的能力也是打造顶尖团队值得借鉴的。（此行摘自鹅长一位同事对Jobs的看法）\n\n小插曲：一个很有意思的事情是，adobe本来想成为一个硬件公司，生产打印机，但Jobs看过他们的东西看，劝他们成为一家软件公司，且砍掉了做得不如他们的apple桌面出版项目，转而控股20%的adobe的股权。\n而在在几年前，Jobs又大大吐槽adobe的flash技术太烂太烂，费电且漏洞多，真的是有意思。\n\n如何判断你画出的方向是对的（大背景下做对的事情）？\n沉思第二久的回答：最终由人的品位决定。你要熟悉人类在各种领域的优秀成果，尝试把它运用到你的工作里。 Jobs不觉得借鉴别人的创意可耻，这样你才不会做出狭隘的产品。\n追求极致，分享给同类，人类正是这样共同进步。这是苹果的魅力，成功的动力。\n虎嗅的哥们总结提炼的更有心，部分转述有其加工理解，且对我的文字互补查缺，值得一看。传送门\nDo something when you young\n\n另一份采访，有地方翻译为《戳破生活的真相》，不是表达原文，做了顺序调整和缩写\n\n在你长大后，往往被告知世界就是这样子，生活在这个世界上，你要避免出格碰壁，努力拥有一个幸福的家庭，过得开心，攒一些钱。但那是一种非常局限的生活，人生原本可以更加宽广。你周围你称之为生活的一切，都是由并不比你聪明的人创造的。明白这个简单的事实，其实你能改变它，影响它，你能建立自己的规则，东西让别人去使用。\n你不只是个过客，相反，你要拥抱，改变，完善它，并在上面留下自己的印记，不做生活的傀儡。戳穿生活这层膜，按下去，对面就会有东西按出来。知道了还要付诸行动，世界是由只会做梦的人和敢于行动的人分别组成。\n生命当中唯一拥有的是时间，把时间用来投资自己，用来获取经验，莫要等待。Do something when you young，20岁的年轻人就应该去闯（不是说50岁就不可以开一家公司，但当你年轻时，没有什么可以失去，不需要对更多人负责，做事会相对简单很多），没有什么会失去，得到的经验会是比失去多十倍的东西。\n\n作为创新的先驱，Jobs也不是完美的人，工作、亲情和生活处理的并不平衡。选择过一个什么样的人生，跟价值观有关系，价值观为主观标准，并无绝对的对错。\n但努力的拥抱生活，改造世界，是我们应该有的人生态度。We are here to be creators！有梦想趁年轻勇敢去追！\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队","访谈"]},{"title":"Apps城市级别用户画像","url":"/Apps%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%BA%A7%E5%88%AB%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html","content":"\n第一次发表于2014.05.18\n\n\n从Apps的使用来分析我们的互联网用户，各线城市有明显的偏好特征，和大家的印象模模糊糊的呼应，特别的有意思，也反映出不同的生存状态。\n城市级特征：\n\n一线城市忙交际，流连歌厅夜店，这也是O2O市场化的体现，说明一线走在前端，生活疯狂忙碌，但也是众人在压力下的舞蹈，为生计，为释放;\n二线城市看美女，但凡有美女存在的社交应用都很吃香；\n三线美女笑嘻嘻，逛街找笑点乐活人生，从这点上来看，三线和四线本质区别并不是很大；\n四线城市玩游戏，信奉游戏人生的生活态度。四线最广大的基层生产创新能量并未释放出来，但这进一步又是游戏业这么几年蓬勃的基石啊，怪不得游戏这么好赚。\n\n差异解读\n\n1- 4级城市时间的自我支配力度越来越强。\n3 与 4或许在PC端的区别并不大，但是无线终端还是互联网的高层级抽象，代表着一种非底端的趋势，所以才表现出这样的差异性。\n最不好理解的是 2 线城市，或许说明二线城市忙活之余，是一种更迷茫的群体，俗语说，高不成低不就？\n\n类型&amp;年龄特征\n\n游戏类\n\n00后爱角色扮演，90后爱策略塔防，70后中年大叔爱斗地主，80后工作压力大，爱暴打老板。\n\n社交类\n\n各年龄段男人都爱美女直播间，除去90后当值求偶期，更爱“恋爱”app.\n\n娱乐类:\n\n女人可不同了，娱乐类00后对明星毫无抵抗力，是追星主流。同样是看搞笑图片，70后纯为逗乐，90后女汉子更爱“内涵”图，80,60都向神婆靠近，前者爱星运，后者爱姓名。\n\n工具类\n\n90后爱弄头发，80后爱用qq提醒（工作好苦逼哦，也或许是生活琐事要记的多），70后爱测试“上辈子是夫妻“，60后钟情免费算命。都是宿命论的调调，只是不同的年龄层，有些着眼将来，有些活在当下，有些回味过去。\n\n交叉分析\n\n00后不管男女，都对游戏着迷。\n90后小伙在爱情路上奔忙时，姑娘们却已经在晒恩爱（qq情侣），\n80后女人看育儿经，但其男人们都在看美女。\n70后男女都会生活，一个限时养鱼，一个淘物美价廉物品。\n60后知天命，有些还在买卖东西，阿姨们可都在享福以种树养花为趣\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"DB锁","url":"/DB%E9%94%81.html","content":"\n自己其实也算对db的机制有不少时间投入，从刚工作参与的项目，充斥各种复杂sql，随之要求大家对sql语句的简洁与性能持续关注。新的互联网单位，又变换成充斥各种No-sql，缓存是一等公民，曾经的思索都忘的七七八八了。唯一碰到的深度讨论只是为什么innodb的数据文件不能缩小的问题，总结点什么吧。\nInnodb的卖身故事\n用mysql的人恐怕都知道innodb数据引擎，innodb的初始母Innobase公司成立于95年的芬兰，目标是开发一个事务引擎，且初始并不是开源的，但创始人死活找不到人买这个产品，才促成了2000年与mysql的合作，并促成了2001mysql第一次发布支持innodb引擎的版本。\n虽然mysql多次尝试与innodb 公司想达成收购交易，但还是oracle资金雄厚，笑到最后，好在oracle并未对innodb做什么不好的事情。oracle用的并不是innodb，虽然他们的思路相同（用日志系统来支持事务和并发）。innodb引擎和oracle数据库引擎对于事务的隔离级别支持并不同。\nOracle的隔离级别\noracle只支持“读已提交”和“串行化”（不在标准之列的只读模式咱就不提了），且它的串行化的实现，也不是真正的串行化，而是类似于基于日志系统的可重复读。\n对于应用来说，其看到的实际效果又跟理论上定义的串行化一致，因为看不到幻读的出现。oracle这种要性能不要对上隔离（屏蔽同步复杂性）的做法，我个人觉得还是很不好的，这种假串行太高估应用层开发人员的思维能力了，他们经常已经被业务搞死了，还要应付一遍这些繁琐的更新竞争问题。\noracle的串行化，当两个事务同时更新一条数据时，如a先获得锁，b更新等待。a提交后，b将抛出一个不可串行化错误。这种错误没有客户能理解，最好的办法还是通过业务锁（令牌）机制来处理。看这篇文章[2]\n关于oracle的隔离级别细节，说实在的我没有过一手项目经验，更多细节还可参见[3]，虽然我觉得其从设计动机的角度解释说明的亦不全靠谱\nInnodb的隔离级别\nInnodb作为开源的引擎，试图尽量与标准保持一致。但是其可重复读级别，在一定程度上也避免了幻读（通过间隙锁，你的读语句是范围查询，gap lock才有意义），但显然并不是真正的串行化（串行化要求读写可串行化），其可重复读隔离级别最好的解释看这里[1]。\nInnodb 的锁的详细解读，可参看这里[4]\n后记\n14 年当时想讲清的东西就很多，故此文一直未完工，但转去写了一个PPT，于2015年07月完工PPT，把想讲的内容都涵盖了。PPT上传过百度文库，也许有人看过。\n参考\n1.博客园 MySQL使用可重复读作为默认隔离级别的原因  ↩2.博客园 Oracle 数据库隔离级别，特性，问题和解决方法 ↩3.ITEYE 深究Oracle的隔离级别 ↩4.51CTO InnoDB行锁和表锁的分析 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"DevSecOps","url":"/DevSecOps.html","content":"\n云原生下的应用安全风险，不论是传统应用，还是拆分模块化后的应用，人为因素都是影响应用安全的重要一环，特别是当传统应用拆分为微服务后，可能导致各个模块被交给不同的开发组进行开发的情况，每个模块功能开发者的安全编码规范，安全意识并不统一。从安全团队的角度来讲，需要统一规范各个模块的安全编程质量。\n云原生下企业应用安全现状\n\n安全人员配比：相对于开发人员，安全人员数量配比比较低，随着云原生应用的推进，安全人员的压力越发明显\n应用开发质量：企业内部和外包人员缺乏一定的安全开发意识，外包人员流动大，安全能力培养无法固定，安全开发水平参差不齐\n应用合规化：《网络安全法》《个人信息保护法》《关键信息基础设施安全保护条例》《数据安全法》等一系列相关法律法规的出台，对应用安全提出了更高的要求\n有效的安全工具：传统安全工具需要进化，契合云原生下微服务分布式的监测能力\n\n安全风险普遍存在\n97%被测目标存在某种形式的漏洞\n\n28%的测试目标曾受过跨站脚本(XSS)攻击\n76%的被测目标存在OWASP（开放式Web应用程序安全项目) 在2021年所披露的前十大漏洞\n\n应用程序和服务器配置错误占比21%[安全配置错误类别]\n19%的漏洞与[访问控制失效]类别有关\n18%的系统在使用易受攻击的第三方库，这一漏洞属于[易受攻击和过时的组件类别]（有时甚至没有清单来记录这些内容，现在很多企业都在同时使用数百个应用程序或软件系统，并拥有数百甚至数千个不同的第三方组件或开源组件，对企业来说，一份准确且实时更新的软件物料清单来有效追踪外部组件是非常有必要的）\n\n\n\n数据泄露事件分析\n\n78%的数据泄露事件是由网络攻击造成的，攻击者利用漏洞非法入侵，查看或下载系统数据\n14%的事件是由系统不正确配置造成的，在数据传输或处理场景中，由于未对权限进行控制，未加密或未脱敏，导致用户隐私，组织的核心数据被窃取\n8%的事件是由人为错误导致的，如内部人员利用职务便利非法越权查看，下载数据等。此类内部向外部泄露数据的安全事件极难防范，更多是管理，非技术发力杜绝可为。\n\n\n移动应用程序安全风险\n不安全的数据存储和通信漏洞\n\n在移动设备安全测试中，有80%的漏洞与不安全的数据存储有关，攻击者既可以物理访问移动设备，也可以使用恶意软件进入设备\n还有53%的漏洞与不安全的通信方式有关\n\n漏洞复盘\n复盘历史漏洞，按成因粗略可归为两类：\n\n代码漏洞，因不安全的API使用和逻辑编写产生的安全风险\n运维漏洞，指运行环境，配置和依赖等系统运维的安全风险，如软件供应链攻击，如公司内员工使用包管理软件拉取时，未配置公司镜像源，可能会拉取到攻击者抢注的恶意包\n\n数据校验是几乎每份安全规范类文档会囊括的要点，可通过数据校验规避的漏洞约占历史web漏洞安全工单数量的70%~80%，但要落实好，最有效的解决办法还是自动生成代码来做此类事情。\nDevSecOps\n解释\n从开发周期起始就引入安全流程，贯穿整个开发周期，对代码进行评审，审计，扫描和测试。尽早确定和实施防御技术，就可以降低安全问题的成本。\n\n安全测试在整个发布和部署过程中持续进行，企业利用自动化工具（如SAST，DAST，IAST，SCA）及手工测试活动（如代码审查和渗透测试），综合达成安全加固的目标\n\n将安全原则集成到开发和操作过程中的实践，创造简化安全性的新机会，换一种简单的概念，叫做安全左移。\n措施策略\n\n尽可能使用日志记录和监视工具，并建立实施事件响应流程，以便快速响应安全警报\n部署自动化测试（如DAST），纵深防御解决方案（如RASP）及传统的的WAF技术以保护生产中的应用程序\n\n立体问题，立体解决\n从立体化上看，包括三个机制：\n\n\n面向开发人员的代码安全指南+静态代码安全检查\n\n常见误区：重检查，轻提供解决方案。如果只聚焦于发现问题，但开发人员在解决问题时，如没有可操作的解决方案，修复工作往往难以推动\n\n\n\n默认安全框架组件\n\n\n嵌入基础设施的代码安全检查。\n\n\n来自谷歌的实践建议\nGoogle在内部安全左移的实践中，提出\n\n越早越好，软件设计初期就应考量安全，稳定性问题，否则越往后代价越高，过程会很痛苦\n安全意识教育很重要，但也不是银弹，安全工程师甚至都会犯错。在业务开发阶段，关注点往往是功能实现，要兼顾安全和稳定性设计方面的权衡，会很难。因此，应关注安全机制和工具的建设\n安全能力嵌入框架大有裨益，复用最佳实践，提供规范性与一致性，减少由业务各自实现产生的风险（不同业务重复在写安全校验逻辑，浪费人力还易出错），还能提升研效，降低修复成本和时间，框架虽不能保证预防解决所有问题，但出现问题时，只需要在一个点解决\n\n\nSecurity By Design：写出漏洞不一定是开发者的问题，而可能是API设计得容易出错。如SQL注入为例，组件和框架都提供了参数绑定的功能，安全规范也有不断强调，但开发人员仍非常容易写出带SQL注入的代码。可以从API设计机制上禁用查询拼接，仅允许通过占位符替换进入查询语句。\n数据校验各类安全规范都会囊括，但在实际过程中，落地并不理想。通过复盘数据统计，可通过数据校验规避的漏洞占历史web安全漏洞工单数量的70~80%。\n\n组合采用校验和带默认安全机制的功能组件（融入Security By Design）两个方案是最优解。如你用IDL进行接口定义，可以定制规则请求消息体中的String类型字段必须限定格式/字符范围+长度，使得在保存IDL文件时，立即获得提示并修正存在的安全隐患。\n数据校验本身是一项业务需求，降低开发门槛，让框架层提供组件让每个业务模块都能做到数据校验，是应该去实践的方向。\n安全指南的难点\n语言差异\n\n每种语言面临的安全风险不同，如go和js相比，go就不存在原型链污染的风险。\n同一门编程语言，用在不同的终端应用开发，面临的风险类型和数量有着天壤之别。\n\n如JS应用于前端页面开发时，主要风险是DOM XSS\n依托于Node.js进行后端接口开发，编码不当则存在命令注入，SQL注入风险。\n\n场景关联\n风险通常与业务场景高度相关，如\n\nSQL注入，一般发生在SQL查询场景，因为允许拼接SQL查询语句，且未做参数绑定和参数值校验，造成风险敞口\nSSRF漏洞，则发生在资源请求场景，未判断网络资源请求目标是否属于内网\n命令注入，发生在命令执行场景，风险成因和SQL注入类似\n\n代码安全指南，与场景关联，有利于受众人员降低认知学习成本，更容易想起注意事项，且要配套结合在线学习课程和考试，如此更能弱化开发人员不了解如何安全地开发的问题。\n\n枚举的挑战\n\n在代码安全指引中，要枚举API/Sink点。通常安全漏洞可归因为API的错误使用，sink点是编写安全策略组件重要的一部分，直接决定了SAST系统的扫描能力。\n\n以google前端加固组件为例，通过对.innerHTML等容易被误用产生安全问题的API做了加固，封装为前端组件中心的函数对象，并设计了对应的编译时检查工具，使得DOM XSS由原来的20%降低到2%\n这个例子中，最重要的是XSS Sink点的提取，也就是易误用产生安全漏洞的API，故Sink的提取是开展API加固极为重要的一步\n\n\n确保所枚举的API的完善性是一个非常大的挑战，补充完善Sink点的工作长尾且任务量大，需随着内外部发现的漏洞，编程语言和框架的迭代而不断迭代。通过与社区携手一道维护是一条路。\n静态安全扫描\n代码安全指南只是安全左移建设的第一步，还需解决的挑战有：\n\n开发人员有一定安全意识，但因为赶进度或疏忽遗漏安全措施落实，或是错误地实现安全校验逻辑\n代码编写是否安全全凭开发人员自觉，缺乏提示、检查和卡点机制\n\n解决方式是：静态代码安全检查解决\n常规的源码表示方式以AST（抽象语法树）和IR（中间表达）为主。一般而言，IR是从AST经过层层转换而来，所以会比AST拥有更多信息。但相对的，每种语言一般会有自己不同的IR，处理起来会相对比较困难。而AST的形式则简单直观，操作起来也比较容易。\n\n第一种是在AST上做检查，既然源码被表示成了树的形式，我们就可以遍历AST，使用一些pattern去检查代码规范中的问题，如方法调用参数变量的检查。\n第二种就是污点分析，污点分析是更为常用的检查安全漏洞的方法，通过标记外部输入点，基于数据流观察能否达到危险函数（如SQL查询，命令执行函数）来检查安全漏洞。\n\n\n\n\n\n源码、AST、IR\n\n\n\nAST与污点分析的优缺对照\n\n\n\n方法\n优点\n缺点\n\n\n\n\nAST匹配\n开发简单，速度较快\n模式匹配能力有限\n\n\n污点分析\n完整的漏洞触发流分析，能针对特定条目做检查\n维护成本较高，速度相对较慢，会有部分漏报研发往往会采取不同的过滤方式，不同的写法，导致sanitizer不能很好的确定下来。大型项目中，组件往往分布于不同仓库，加之很多自定义的通信框架，完整程序数据流很难得到。\n\n\n\nstd::string cmdLine = &quot;ls&quot;;cmdLine += user_input; //source(输入)if (cmdLine.find_first_not_of(&quot;1234567890.+-*/e &quot;) == std::string::npos) //sanitizer(过滤点)  system(cmdLine.c_str());//sinkelse  warning(&quot;xxxxx&quot;)\n在写代码段不同阶段，开发人员对检查工具和结果的预期要求各不相同\n\n\n本地编写阶段\n要求速度快，此时往往代码还没写完，AST模式匹配就是个很好的检查方式，可考虑用semgrep等工具，封装为IDE插件。实践过程中，可尝试引入一些更激进的策略，如要求更改不安全的SQL查询拼接逻辑\n\n\n构建部署阶段：封装为流水线原子，并配套提供安全卡点机制，给出问题描述和解决指引\n\n\n日常检查阶段，代码仓库检查\n该阶段一般为旁路检查，可进行一系列复杂的分析。速度就不是第一考虑因素了。\n\n\n白盒扫描战斗机CodeQL\n行业产品对比&lt;span class=“hint–top hint–error hint–medium hint–rounded hint–bounce” aria-label=&quot;58集团，白盒代码审计系统技术选型\n&quot;&gt;[3]\n在这个领域，是有成熟的商业善品和开源项目的，Coverity、Fortify、CheckMarx作为领头产品，有深厚的技术积累和专业的产品技术团队。优点就不用说了，缺点是定制化需求支持困难，引擎对用户不透明，需求提交给厂商响应时长为Month++；规则学习成本高，自定义规则困难；厂商以最大并发量授权license，弹性扩容能力差，存在成本浪费；融入企业自身的CI/CD流程困难，难以准确处理误报，漏洞修复复查等业务需求。\n如Converity扫描脚本MacOS的版本适配一般都会delay2~3个月，这就会导致MacOS一更新，对C/C的安全扫描业务就会中断（C/C安全扫描依赖本地编译环境）。另外代码质量问题和安全漏洞并未明显区分，每个项目数千计的代码质量问题和安全漏洞难以修复落地。\n开源产品SonarQube、FindBugs、Checkstyle等更偏向质量检查而非安全性检查，虽利于适配CI软件，但没有跨文件AST能力，无法分析跨文件数据流和控制流。\nCodeQL\n通过适配各个语言的AST解释器，并将代码的AST解析结果按预设好的数据模型将AST数据及其依赖关系存储到CodeDB里，通过QL语言定义污点追踪漏洞模型，执行QL时通过高效搜索算法对CodeGB的AST元数据进行高效查询，在代码中检索出漏洞结果[4]。\n\n\n支持除PHP外的常见语言类型\n规则开源，无需依赖厂商支持；但AST分析引擎不开源，无法免费集成。\n不支持软件成分分析，无法结合软件版本进行漏洞判断\n它做得最棒的是通过不同语言的适配，把一些常用查询封装成QL语言，对AST数据进行一种类SQL的查询。结合AST元数据对DataFlow和ControlFlow进行更细致的判断，减少误报，漏报。\n\n悬赏开源社区完善规则\n通过GitHub庞大的开源代码及迭代数据，实现打标给神经网络学习提供学习样本\n\n\n\n现代应用安全工具\n静态应用安全测试（SAST）\n\n\n也称为静态分析，是第一批发现源代码和字节码或二进制文件本身缺陷的AppSec工具之一。\n\n\n能促成在软件研发生命周期的最初阶段收敛漏洞。\n\n\n动态应用程序安全测试（DAST）\n于运行状态下对应用程序进行爬行和分析。与SAST一样，它只能识别扫描引擎已知的漏洞和配置问题，传统的DAST扫描通常测试公开的HTML接口，更先进的DAST扫描器也可以测试REST API\nSAST（白盒）vs DAST（黑盒）\n\n一图胜十言，SAST和DAST联合起来才能彼此完整\n\n\n软件组合分析（SCA）\n由于开源组件带来的风险增加，SCA工具在过去几年变得越发流行。该工具能识别源代码，容器和注册表中的开源漏洞，大多数SCA工具还能检查开源许可合规性和归属要求。\n交互式应用安全测试（IAST–灰盒）\n\n关键技术：插桩检测模式+流量检测模式+实时web日志\n\n传统黑盒扫描器依赖于页面响应检测漏洞，需要发送大量的请求，还有误报的可能。对于SSRF，文件上传等漏洞，在页面没有回显，主机无外网权限的情况下，还可能漏报。\n机制解释\n交互性\n只会分析“交互”产生时所影响到相关代码的安全风险，而不是扫描所有代码、配置文件或遍历整个站点。\n插桩检测\n是在保证目标程序原有逻辑完整的情况下，在特定位置插入探针，在应用程序运行时，通过探针获取请求，代码数据流，代码控制流等。基于请求，代码，数据流，控制流等综合分析判断漏洞.\n\n你可以说它部署在应用程序运行的代理或传感器上\n\n由于该技术针对不同语言需要研发不同的插桩探针，因此对于厂商而来，其IAST工具每增加对一种语言的支持，即相当于开发一款新产品，也就意味着IAST工具支持的编程语言越多，厂商所需投入的人力成本和经济成本也就越大。\n如果语言本身提供了插桩的接口，那么探针开发的难度将会大大降低。例如Java提供了一个instrumentation 接口。通过该接口，可以以一种标准的方式，在启动应用时添加javaagent参数来加载插桩探针，从而实现动态数据流污点追踪。\nSAST&amp;DAST混合\n\n第一点是如何“理解”代码。根据不同语言来区分，需要关注哪些函数，这些函数里哪些是污点输入？哪些是污点传播、清洗、汇聚？根据不同的漏洞原理来做分析。\n第二点，从各种语言底层做突破，捕获关键函数的调用情况？读取到关键函数何时被调用、传入了什么参数、数据传递给了谁。\n\n工作模式\n\n现在较先进的IAST是支持两种模式，主动相当于可以发起测试，被动相当于只判定漏洞\n\n\n\n主动模式：接收到相应流量，在对流量进行初步筛查后，将流量发送到扫描控制端，扫描控制端会结合payload进行数据流重放，重放验证过程中根据请求和响应，及函数代码执行流，判断其中是否存在安全漏洞，主动模式支持漏洞复现。\n\n\n被动模式：引入动态污点技术，当一个请求流量输入后，给变量打上污点标记，在整个函数内部流转时，当变量携带着污点标记在整个函数内部流转时，就可以观察它经历了哪些函数，整个过程就是一个污点传播过程。\n\n在被动模式下，仅会对触发的流量进行扫描分析，为保证测试效果，触发的流量越全面，扫描越安全。\n不需要数据重放，也就意味着不存在脏数据；对于签名和加密接口都有很好的处理效率。\n\n\n\n\n漏洞发现后处理\n经判断存在风险需处理的漏洞，进行漏洞修复并更新至测试环境后，需再次触发漏洞所在的url，此时IAST插桩会自动进行回归测试，如系统判断该漏洞已修复，则会自动关闭该漏洞。\n一句话总结\nIAST通过运行时插桩或流量分析的方法，借助于功能测试或自动化测试的交互式行为，实现透明、高效分析应用漏洞，防止应用带病上线。\n污点分析实现三关键\n实现污点分析，有三个核心关键点\n\nsource点：表示外部输入，如web输入，文件输入等\nsink点：表示危险的函数调用或者变量赋值，如system等函数\nsanitizer：表示过滤点，经过过滤点的数据将被取消标记\n\n\n污点分析从user_input一路进行数据流追踪\n\n污点追踪漏洞发现举例\n\n以XXE实体注入漏洞为例\n\n\n通过RequestResponseBodyMethodProcessor.resolveArgument这个方法参数，引入了请求中postData的XML实体，将该实体标记为污点数据\n而后XML实体污点数据进入传播阶段，在传播阶段，探针会hook代码中String类型的方法（如String,StringReader,StringBuilder,subString等），这些String类型的方法称为传播函数，会对污点源进行String处理\n从污点数据可见，XML实体经过处理后，被封装到了一个对象内部（java.io.StringReader@20cca27a），此时java.io.StringReader@20cca27a也会被探针标记为污点数据，加入到污点集中继续进行污点追踪\n经过污点输入，传播两个阶段，污点数据会进入到污点汇聚过程。对于不同的漏洞而言，探针hook的汇聚函数有所不同，如针对SQL注入会hook语句执行的方法，针对XXE漏洞会hook解析XML实体的方法\n汇聚阶段被AbstractSAXParser.parse方法执行了解析操作，因为XXE漏洞最后阶段就是解析XML实体，所以污点追踪过程到此就结束了，探针此时会释放所有污点数据，不再继续追踪下去\n纵观整个污点数据流转过程，这个漏洞被上报的原因是：输入源XML实体在污点输入阶段，没有对请求包中的XML实体内容进行校验就进行了引入，在传播阶段，只进行了一次对象转换操作，没有对引入的XML实体做相应的无害化处理，直到对象在污点汇聚阶段被解析方法进行解析。整一个过程，探针没有识别到污点数据在三个阶段有任何的清洁函数，故此漏洞最终被上报。\n\nOpenRASP-IAST\n目前支持的漏洞检测\n\n触发条件均为用户输入的参数直接拼接产生的漏洞，尚不支持非HTTP参数，参数编解码方式触发的漏洞\n\n\n\n命令注入\n\n\n目录遍历\n\n\nPHP eval代码执行\n\n\n文件上传\n\n\n文件包含\n\n\n任务文件读取\n\n\n任意文件写入\n\n\nSQL注入\n\n\nSSRF\n\n服务器请求伪造，对于远程url没有进行严格过滤的情况下，攻击者可通过该漏洞控制web网站作为代理服务器远程攻击服务器或该web的本地服务器。一般情况下，其攻击目标是外网无法访问的内部系统。其危害有，利用协议获取本地文件；可对内网、本地进行端口扫描，查看端口开闭状态；发现漏洞后攻击运行在内网或本地的应用程序；通过访问默认文件实现对内网web应用的指纹识别。其触发的场景，可能有转码服务，图片加载与下载，url获取内容收藏等。可通过限制请求端口，禁用不需要的协议，统一错误信息等来进行限制\n\n\n\nJava XXE\n\n\n被动模式+fuzz测试\nOpenRASP-IAST是被动扫描模式，不会使用爬虫技术去获取URL信息，当iast.js下发成功，Java/PHP内部的探针会自动在请求结束时，将本次请求的参数，hook点信息提交给openrasp-iast服务器进行分析，并选择性的fuzz目标\n\nfuzz -模糊测试的代名词，所谓模糊测试，即为向应用提供非预期输入，从而检测程序逻辑漏洞。例如模拟用户面对输入框犯傻的时候总会出现一些“奇葩”的非预期初入，此外，模仿攻击者向应用、加密内容、操作系统指令或原始代码注入命令行函数，来检视程序会出现什么情况\n\n将IAST部署至测试环境，并长期运行。在QA，RD做单元测试，功能测试时自动的进行漏洞检测。检测目标按照IP：PORT或者HOST进行分组，每个目标可以有不同的配置，若勾选 自动启动扫描 选项，则会在发现新目标时自动启动扫描任务。\n运行时应用程序自我保护（RASP）\n\nRuntime Application Self-Protection\n\n集成到应用程序中分析用户流量和行为模式，以阻止和防止攻击。RASP部署在生产服务器上，工作模式更像传统的web应用程序防火墙（WAF），但RASP技术使用AI和机器学习来代替正则表达式匹配，将保护程序像“免疫血清”一样注入到应用程序中，与应用程序融为一体，能实时检测和阻断安全攻击，使应用程序具备自我保护能力。\nRASP是一种基于服务器的技术，应用程序开始运行就会激活，每个RASP系统都有自己的一组安全规则列表，用于交叉检查事件和相关数据，确保只有允许的事情才能执行，每种RASP技术提供的保护级别取决于安全规则的深度及实现类型。\n\n通过对请求调用的关键函数进行监听，拦截各种绕过流量检测的威胁攻击\n几乎所有的攻击手段最终都可归纳成敏感命令执行，敏感文件读写，敏感数据库操作等异常行为\n开源软件和第三方漏洞被利用时，执行到代码底层，通常聚焦到一些敏感函数上，如反序列化，数据库执行，命令执行，文件操作，响应返回等相关函数\n支持动态下发热补丁修复风险，可在不中断业务同时为系统提供临时保护，争取宝贵时间，紧急上线的项目也可以利用此特性临时加固\n\n\n除了执行代码检查，RASP还能做应用服务器启动时的安全配置规范检查，如进程启动账号检查，弱口令检查，重要cookie是否开启http-only配置等\n\n通过RASP的改造应用，可提升应用内敏感数据流向的可见性。例如，记录应用对数据库的查询行为，明确应用和表，字段间的依赖关系；记录应用http response信息，发现应用将敏感信息返回给客户端的行为；还可为数据加解密提供支撑。\n成熟RASP三构成\n安全插件\n实现RASP防御能力的执行模块，要求消耗低，能收集应用中间件/开发语言/语言版本/操作系统等信息，并通过与数据调度器的数据联动，实现资产信息传递，入侵防御，漏洞数据分析等功能\nAI攻击检测引擎\n判定攻击行为的决策中心：结合外部安全威胁情报中心，借助上下文情景分析能力，通过纵深流量学习算法，自主学习正常访问模型，防御未知的漏洞风险\n\n不是说其它工具都是基于正则的，哪怕SAST也有不同层级的实现，解决不同难度的问题\n\n概念解释：东西向流量\n\n\n南北向流量：外部发起\n\n\n东西向流量：内部产生\n\n\n\n探针平等对这些进入应用程序的数据进行分析\n\n管理平台\n\n展示应用资产，安全检测，分析，防御结果\n提供集中管控工具，统一下发配置和指令\n可视化展示应用的状态，安全态势，为安全事件处理和能力优化提供数据决策支撑\n\n工作流程简介\n\n\n大部分安全检测逻辑都在插件中实现，当引擎检测到敏感行为时，会依次调用插件进行检测，支持对数据库，文件，网络行为等进行检测（插件以js语法写成）\n\n\nJava版在服务程序启动时，动态修改Java字节码，对敏感操作的函数进行挂钩，如数据库操作，文件读取写入操作，命令执行…当攻击发生，就会触发这些Hook点，此时RASP agent就可以获取到函数的参数，如要读取的文件名，要执行的命令等\n\n\n基于启动时的插桩操作，当有类被ClassLoader加载时，该类的字节码先交给自定义的Transformer处理，判断是否为要Hook的类，如是则交给javassist字节码处理框架进行处理，类的字节码被按事件驱动模型逐步解析每个方法，当触发了需hook的方法，会在方法开头或结尾插入进行检测函数的字节码，然后把hook好的字节码返回给Transformer从而载入虚拟机\n\n字节码存储在.class文件中，每个.class文件包含一个java类或接口。\njavassist就是一个用来处理java字节码的类库，可在一个已编译好的类中添加新的方法，或修改已有方法，不要求你对字节码方面有深入的了解。它也可以去生成一个新的类对象，这点相较于反射方式不同，反射只能编辑一个对象，不能动态生成一个类\n\n\n\n实际过程细节，比如上的介绍复杂一丢丢，进此传送门去搜索\n\n\nOpenRasp的agent端和IAST agent端在探针端有近似的任务，可IAST还要配一个扫描器，接收agent报上来的请求数据，识别要关注验证的活，开始自动做渗透测试任务\n\n换种说法，你可以说RASP agent再加一个扫描器（fuzz测试发起的服务端），即可实现一个完整的IAST扫描工具\n\n\n\nSQL检测举例\n\n数据库操作的例子\n\n\n\n收到请求，进入服务器请求的hook点，开启当前线程的检测开关，并把请求对象和响应对象进行缓存，以便后面使用\n\n\nSQL查询被发起\n\n\n进入SQLStatementHook点，RASP挂钩了execute,executeUpdate,executeQuery等方法，从这些方法进入的检测流程如下\n\n受限来自标记线程的调用，才会激活检测\n采集connection_id（仅JDBC支持），SQL语句和数据库类型等信息\n在插件的执行安全检测，决定是拦截请求还是放行仅打印日志\n\n\n\n进入SQLResultSetHook点，RASP挂钩了resultSet.next方法\n\n调用插件检查是否发生拖库行为，默认策略为一次查询结果超过500条就告警\n\n\n\n若决定拦截攻击\n\n输出告警日志到logs/alarm.log\n如果header还没发出，默认用302跳转到拦截页面\n如body还没发出，则重置未发送的body\n输出自定义拦截页面跳转js脚本\n\n\n\nR(I)ASP补充信息\nJava版本工作原理介绍\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/java.html\nphp版本\nOpenRasp核心原理为：在MINIT阶段，替换全局compiler_globals的funciton_table与class_table中特定的PHP_FUNCTION对应的函数指针（封装原有的handler，增加前置，后置处理），由此实现对敏感函数的挂钩。通过敏感函数参数结合请求信息判断是否存在攻击行为，进而采取拦截或者放行操作。\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/php.html\nOpenRASP项目已经实现相当于IAST agent端的OpenRASP agent，在此基础上引入一个扫描端，即可实现一个完整的IAST扫描工具\n系统架构\n灰盒扫描工具采用python3实现，数据库采用mysql，通讯采用http+json的方式\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/iast.html\nHook函数列表\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/architect/hook.html\n添加新的hook点\n支持自定义hook函数，开放的体系\nhttps://rasp.baidu.com/beta-doc/hacking/hook.html\n参考\n1.安全左移理念，鹅厂DevSecOps如何实践？ ↩2.悬镜产品，《云原生下的IAST落地实践》 ↩3.58集团，白盒代码审计系统技术选型 ↩4.CodeQL入门，CodeQL从入门到放弃 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["运维"]},{"title":"IT系统安全方案导论","url":"/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html","content":"\n纲要\n狭义安全\n\n数据安全\n系统管理安全\n\n广义安全\n\n异常发现与系统高可用\n灾备与恢复\n质量流程\n\n信息安全三要素\n\n策略\n管理\n技术\n\n\n狭义安全的本质\n本质是信息（数据）的安全。\n\n\nIT 系统运行在可被访问的设备上，通过开放一系列的交互接口提供系统管理、信息处理和查看服务。\n\n\n信息=资源，一切信息互动的过程，都关联着操作角色（身份）的概念。只有合适的人面对和处理着合适的信息，才是信息安全的意义所在。\n\n\nmindmap\n  Root[IT系统（数据+业务逻辑）]\n    A[生产]\n    B[查看]\n    C[分析]\n狭义安全的体系建设分为两大部分\n\n系统的信息角色体系划分和制度管控\n防范信息角色体系被突破/误用（提升突破难度）的系统和机制\n\n物理环境和软件平台的安全建设，隔离防护及漏洞修复响应\n交互接口的鉴权\n信息传输过程的防护\n系统分层设计实施的健壮性\n恶意行为的启发式发现和追踪机制\nand more…\n\n\n\nIT系统的特征及网络时代的安全挑战\nIT 系统特征是分层分级，每一层都要有相应的安全策略，一环薄弱就会导致糟糕的木桶效应，威胁整体系统的信息安全。\n\n分层分级也是满足安全性这个非功能需求的诉求\nblock-beta\ncolumns 6\n访问源:3\nblock:group6:3\nDNS解析劫持\n......\nend\n信息传输:3\nblock:group5:3\n流量劫持\n数据窃听\nM[\"......\"]\nend\nY[\"业务服务层《面向C端服务》《内部运营系统》\"]:3\nblock:group2:3\ncolumns 3\n操作鉴权疏漏 账号密码泄露 跨站伪造请求 恶意输入 DDOS 机器请求 数据脱敏不当 RST复位攻击 M2[\"......\"]\nend\nD[\"数据层《面向C端数据》《运营数据》《代码/文档》\"]:3\nblock:group3:3\ncolumns 3\n错误的赋权 A[\"账号密码泄露\"] 误操作 敏感数据未加密 数据备份缺失 M3[\"......\"]\nend\nI[\"信息/系统宿主环境《操作系统运维》《平台软件设置维护》\"]:3\nblock:group4:3\ncolumns 2\n错误的赋权 A2[\"账号密码泄露\"] 错误的账号赋权 错误的资源访问控制 M4[\"......\"]\nend\n\n💡 提示\n\n\n信息层的数据窃听，可通过传输数据加密（如 https）来安全强化\n\n\n业务服务层的 操作鉴权疏漏，可建设统一鉴权入口；跨站伪造请求 可强化请求来源验证；DDOS 可前置恶意流量清洗；机器请求可增加频率限制、验证码等措施\n\n\n\n网络时代的安全挑战\n\n来自黑产或黑帽子等的作恶行为，如分布式拒绝服务攻击（DDOS），流量窃听等等。\n社会工程学导致角色体系依赖的密码机制更容易被攻破\n\n选择云服务商的三大原因\n\n构建和运维系统较低的成本支出「金钱成本、时间成本」\n可靠的运维服务质量和快速的扩容响应能力\n契合网络时代系统建设的安全防护特性（启发式防护和高频度攻击清洗能力）\n\n整体方案选型是综合成本和性能效率的产物，例如防范 DDOS 攻击，需要投入较高的成本，云服务商的统一建设和免费防护是一大优势。\n安全落地三要素\n大量的环节可能因为人的因素（及团队人员水平不一致）引入风险，技术只能提升误操作和作恶的门槛，各层级配以安全策略还要结合管理控制。正所谓在安全和分控领域，三分技术，七分管理。\n策略\n\n信息访问来源筛查过滤业务 环境\n系统接口级别统一鉴权业务\n数据访问接口传输加密传输\n敏感信息加密存储数据\n业务系统外部输入不信任开发原则业务\n云端及其仅支持密钥文件登陆环境\n数据备份数据\n管理员账号消除单点&amp;禁止直接登录环境\n\n管理\n\n角色账号细分维护，管理账号开放给少量人员\n普及提升全员安全意识和水平\n重要资料（文档/代码）分级别访问控制\n系统登陆行为日志记录\n数据变更日志记录\n人员退出时的账号注销机制\n异常账户冻结机制\n不引入不成熟的技术方案\n\n技术\n\n启发式恶意行为预警\n恶意流量清洗\n优选降低人工参与度的方案，充分发挥程序的客观高效性\n\n广义安全的系统预案\n异常发现与系统高可用\n\n服务异常发现（监控预警）\n架构 Design for failure\n鸡蛋不放在一个篮子里\n异常服务自动恢复\n有损服务\n\n灾备&amp;恢复\n\n数据热备\n数据恢复演练\n自动化部署\n版本回滚\n\n质量流程\n\n发布审核和权限管控\n版本质量跟踪系统\n代码高危函数扫描\n异常信息上报收集跟进\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"LVS三类工作模式","url":"/LVS%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n业界明星\nLVS是国内程序员界为行业付出的最响当当产品了，在互联网界更是采用的多。\n背景介绍\n个人认为LVS出现的基础有三点：\n\nIPV4 公网ip不够用的现状\n加之DNS更新调整的麻烦度\n服务器之间需要负载均衡，硬件负载均衡还是贵，原来国外大厂的闭源软件同样也贵\n\n在TCP/IP协议簇上，能做到的方案肯定最低工作在IP层做路由转发和负载均衡。\n大家都用过交换机和路由器，家用的都是路由器，因为有公网IP，一台路由器代理几台设备，家用路由器NAT转换协议也是为上面1,2点而来。\n作者语述\n真正有用的软件来源于实际应用，不同于闭门造车想象出来的功能，且看LVS作者章文嵩博士的回忆：\n\n“我在国防科大学读书之余，也帮湖南电信做一些系统集成项目，见到许多服务器忙不过来的情况。这时就需要考虑负载均衡。那时业界也有一些商用方案，常用的是思科LocalDirector。我希望在Linux内核上写点东西，又知道思科LocalDirector的工作原理。所以我当时就花了两个星期写了一个最简单的版本，那是1998年5月。（一套LocalDirector当时价值几万美元，我那时心里有疑问——这东西并不难写，为什么卖那么贵？）”\n\n\n\n“当时LVS开源放在网上一个星期，就被一家澳大利亚小公司用起来了，公司的负责人写邮件感谢我，说效果很好。我觉得这件事挺有意思，因为自己写的软件被别人用起来了，为他人创造了价值。2000年前后，收到了许多用户的感谢邮件。也有公司给我捐送服务器，有个瑞士用户寄了一大包饼干来感谢我。我把饼干拿回家，被丈母娘看到了，她说原来你半夜这么辛苦地工作，就是为了一大包饼干啊。\n做这些事是很有成就感的，更多的是乐趣。”\n\n硬核正题\n旁话不多讲，进工作模式正题。\n介绍前，先列几个缩写概念：\n1. LB(Load Balancer) :负载均衡器，也就是装有LVS（ipvsadm）的server2. VIP(VirtualIP):给远程客户端提供服务的外部IP，LVS设备具有此IP3. real server:后端提供真是服务的server4. RIP(Real Server IP):后端realserver的IP\nLVS有三种工作模式\n1.DR（direct routing直接路由）\n2.NAT（Network Address Translation网络地址转换）\n3.Tune（IP Tunneling隧道）\nNAT模式\n所有real server可分配保留私有地址，只有LB分配一个公网IP，但所有的请求包和应答包都经过LB，且不说网卡流量问题。包因为要修改再生，需要消耗CPU时间。举个例子，如果TCP包平均长度536字节，平均再生延迟60纳秒，那么这个延迟，导致LB的最大允许吞吐能力是8.93M/s（1/60*536）。做负载均衡，real server多了，就满足不了要求（如果单台real server允许400K/s，22台就达到极限）。这种模式下LB很容易成为整个系统的瓶颈。NAT通常的负担量也就在20台real server左右。\nDR模式\n与NAT模式一样，同样要求real server与LB在同一物理网段，这样对组网布线是有要求的。且realserver上须有一块网卡不接受arp广播（同样配上VIP）。\n涉及网络细节，且性能在三种模式下最好，详细讲下DR过程【模式出现 动机之一，在于现实发现许多Internet服务（例如WEB服务器）的请求包很短小，而应答包通常很大。如果只让LB处理入包，定可以提升吞吐能力】。\n\n客户端得到服务的目的IP（为VIP，可能是通过DNS查询），目的端口80。\n于是客户端与VIP的80端口建立连接，LVS在VIP上收到之后，根据均衡策略，从后端realserver中选出一台（RIP1）作为此次请求的接收者，然后将请求包的目的mac地址更改为RIP1的mac地址，封装后转发给后端的RIP1，同时将该链接记录在hash表中。\nRIP1的某块网卡，如eth0，接收到这个转发包看到mac地址是自己的，于是就转发给上层的IP层，IP层解包后，发现目的IP地址也是自己（VIP配置在一块non-arp的网卡上，如lo:0）,然后接着根据协议上传。\n应用处理完请求后，将数据传给TCP，TCP将源端口改为80，源IP更改为VIP，目的端口更改为客户端端口，目的IP为客户端IP，IP层根据目的地址进行路由，然后经网络返给Client，完成了一次请求，而不经过LB。\n\nDR模式的优缺点：\n优：可扩展性强，LB不会成为业务增长的瓶颈\n缺：节点不能跨网段，real server上须有一块网卡不接受arp广播\nTUN模式\n就是针对DR模式的物理网段限制而来，针对互联网业务的特点，也比NAT效率高。但需要所有的服务器支持 “IP Tunneling(IP Encapsulation)”协议。但跨网段，服务器离的近，还好，离得不近，则网络延迟会成为主要瓶颈。\n后记\n\n当前7层负载均衡，如Nginx已经让程序员大呼方便，但7层的效率肯定比不了在3层的处理效率，聊以此文，作为LVS工作模式简短总结介绍。\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["网络"]},{"title":"Me vs. Me","url":"/Me-vs.-Me.html","content":"\nI don’t care who is doing better than me,\n\n我不在乎谁比我做得更好\n\nbecause the truth is, I’m not in competition with anyone else.\n\n因为事实是，我与任何人都不是竞争关系。\n\nThe only person I need to be better than is the person I was yesterday.\n\n我需要超越的唯一一人，是昨天的我\n\n\nLast year，I was different.\n\n去年，我是不同的\n\nI’ve grown, improved, and learned a lot.\n\n我成长了，进步了，学到了很多。\n\nThat’s what really matters.\n\n这才是最重要的。\n\nIt’s me versus me.\n\n这是我和我自己的较量。\n\nEvery day，I wake up ready to push myself further,\n\n每天，我醒来都准备好挑战自己，\n\nto challenge my limits, and become the best version of myself.\n\n突破极限，成为最好的自己。\n\nI don’t let other people’s success make me feel small.\n\n我不会让别人的成功让我觉得渺小，\n\nTheir journey is theirs, and mine is mine.\n\n他们的旅程是他们的，我的旅程是我的。\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"OKR VS KPI","url":"/OKR-VS-KPI.html","content":"OKR 全称是 Objectives and Key Results，而 KPI 的全称是 Key Performance Indicators。\n\n参加一次敏捷培训引起的兴趣后记\n\n如果用一张图来解说\n\n说文解字：Objectives VS Indicators\n一个关注目标，一个关注指标，前者思考做什么事，后者思考如何评价。方向对了，不怕路途遥远，方向不对，指标漂亮也无甚意义，且选择衡量什么，你就得到什么。一个做正确的事儿，一个正确的做事。\n这两档子概念，对于大厂来说比较有意义，大公司的管理比较刻板，管理层无法触及一线，而一线正是对绩效和产出负责的，合适的衡量项，将决定了你的人力资源效益。\n选用KPI的超集OKR，有更灵活衡定的选择面（除了可量化，还有里程碑），可以让投入更加聚焦，更加敢于投入。\n科技巨头为什么乐于用OKR ？创新的引入经常不便于量化衡量，这就导致行使KPI机制的单位，常常孕育了不利于创新的大环境。\n\n换一种角度阐述\n\n\nKPI：从目标到行动计划\n\n优点：目标的上下一致性较好，结果控制\n不足：每个职位要做的工作本身，协同性可能差一点\n\n\n授权越充分的职位，越适合KPI\n\n\n\nOKR：从行动计划到目标\n\n优点：每个职位要完成的目标与其承担的工作有较好的逻辑关系\n不足：不同职位同类任务目标之间和上下级目标间可能缺乏一致性\n\n过程控制，管理成本高。经常要对齐：目标有无变化，有无遗漏\n一旦有遗漏，会导致总结果不好\n\n\n\n\n团队目标不是来自各成员之和，而是 分工 之后的结果之和，更适合用OKR\n对整体目标的实现影响越大的职位，越适合用OKR。岗位权重不同，在目标的可实现过程中，需要分解来保障，越是分解的透彻，目标可行性越有保障\n\n\n\n从OKR的不足出发，需要在实施OKR的团队时，必须分担一些团队共性目标。\n最本质区别\n\n在于控制的着眼点\n\nKPI 控制目标总和拆解一致，直接分解小目标给个人，个人再得出个人分工\nOKR 控制工作清单协同一致，再分工给个人，个人再得出小目标\n让自由和方向达成一种平衡\n雇员与组织目标保持一定的前提下，需站得更高，看得更远。\n100%能被完成的OKR不好，70%完成度的OKR却近乎完美，知道极限，才有继续提升空间。\n目标不是考核某个团队或员工，而是提醒。依靠员工的自主性和创造性去完成任务，达成分段标题里的平衡。\n管理动作/制度不要超越了你的经营水平\n上一段吹了那么多，不是说KPI族的更细的可衡量不对，生产制造型或可预测型的工种或领域，强调可量化还是挺有意义的，不同行业的从业人员工作性质和特点不同，管理方式也不同。\n别人的东西用得再好，最终还是要因地制宜（结合所处的经营水平），华为先僵化再优化的路线，是个好路子（也有它的市场和经营阶段支撑它要&amp;能坚持下来），再比如说丰田只有一个，谷歌也还没出现第二个一样，各家都有公开的明星做法，你学却你“死”。\n都是工具，服务好解决问题就好。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队"]},{"title":"PRC的道路","url":"/PRC%E7%9A%84%E9%81%93%E8%B7%AF.html","content":"\n中国历史上哪个朝代开国难度最高？\n目前为止是本朝\n\n\n别的朝代基本都是在打国服，偶尔联机国际服，但国际服难度不大\n\n\n近代国服和国际服开始合并服务器了「上溯到一千八百四十年，从那時起，为了反对内外敌人，争取民族独立和人民自由幸福，在历次斗争中牺牲的人民英雄们永垂不朽」\n\n\n为何资本主义道路在 75 年前走不通？\n\n在 90 年代的教科书中，并没有解释，只简单一句让人背诵，要考。实际上老人家是有自己的论述的，的确有实事求是的道理\n\n资本主义道路发展几百年，比社会主义制度成熟的多。但中国人口多， 民族多，封建主义历史长，地区发展不平衡，近代又被帝国主义弱肉强食，搞得民不聊生，实际上四分五裂。我们这样的条件搞资本主义只能是别人的附庸。帝国主义在能源，资金许多方面都有优势，美国对西欧资本主义国家既合作又排挤，怎么可能让落后的中国独立发展，后来居上？过去中国走资本主义道路走不通，『现在』（老人家讲话那会儿）还是走不通。如果要走就要牺牲劳动人民的根本利益，这就违背了共产党的宗旨和井冈山的追求，国内的阶级矛盾和民族矛盾都会激化，搞不好还会被敌人利用，四分五裂危险的很。我们要摸索出中国的社会主义道路，避免走资本主义道路防止修正主义，要继承和发扬井冈山的一些好制度好作风。\nPRC 开始三十年的成就\n1.全民扫盲+2.反赌+3.禁毒+4.解放农奴+5.改造妓女+6.土地改革+7.普及农村医疗+8.消灭天花等多种传染病、疟疾等多种寄生虫病+9.收复西藏、新疆+10.兴修全世界最大的水利工程+11.建立完整工业体系+12.把美国为首的联合国军打回三八线+13.打赢苏联，印度，越南等所有边界战争+14.收复西沙+15.从 0 到 1 突破原子弹，卫星，氢弹，洲际导弹，核潜艇+16.坐上联合国五常位置\n这些事，换成任何一个半殖民地国家，不要说 30 年，给他 100 年也做不到\n\n周末一个有钱的恨国党朋友聊起民国的评价，他说民国接了清朝的超级烂摊子，面临的情况很糟糕，周围还有一个过去从未有过的工业强邻日本，做得其实还不赖。熬败了日本后，PRC 面临的情况要好了些，着实无语。\n『交给他们一个国家，他们没有能力治好，交给他们一个省，最后自己成为了在野党』\n\n国共两党的对比\n两个党基因很大的不同！\n国民党一堆的 Founder 都是大文人，大名士，大海龟，非常讲学历，战斗力就自然不行，这一堆 Founder，活到台湾的有的是，一直干扰部门经理升上来的蒋的经营。蒋一方面无雄才，一方面其主抓的黄埔军校也是个速成学校，太速成了，甚至开学一年多就上战场打仗去了，所以蒋退到台湾之前还是依赖海龟那些大知识分子。国民党经营也差的太远，对外吸收入股，兼并收购，大家一块分享股权，内部斗争也远没有共产党来得凶悍，团队建设信任钱和位子这一套。\n而我党迅速摆脱了需要海龟，需要总公司派人来，需要空降 CEO ，需要总公司的钱的情况。且发现从总公司那泵来的专利产品在中国还不是特别灵，就开始自己研发产品。共产党完全做到不停开除 CEO，每一任 CEO 只要你不符合这公司的企业文化，就立即开除你，不管你是海龟还是土鳖，是大知识分子还是工人，这公司有铁一样的纪律，有强大的企业文化，一直向前进，在外面不跟你们妥协，不让你们入股，在里面坚定推行自己的企业文化，用了一大批学历普遍不高的实干家，转向所有从战斗中成长起来的人。\n\n留欧勤工俭学的这一大批人，真正拿到学位的只有聂荣臻一个人，其他人都是以革命为主，开各种少共的中央会议，以勤工为辅，以读书为辅辅，没有拿到什么学历，在欧洲主要工作就是发展党员，例如周总理在欧洲发展了朱德。\n留苏的这帮人也没正经在苏联大学里读过什么书，只有极少数人去过伏龙芝军事学院，如刘亚楼。绝大多数是在苏联的中山大学、东方大学，这两个有点像蒋中正在日本的振武学堂，专门为中国留学生办的预科，学语言，培训速成一下。\n\n任何公司的本质都是「与人分红的工具」的一个产品！\n朝鲜战争加速了社会主义路线\n建国之初新民主主义发展战略，认为农民为社会基础的小农经济进不了社会主义，需通过几十年的交换逐渐形成积累再进入工业化，才能搞社会主义。教员对全党讲得也明白，这个初期搞不得社会主义。\n一场朝鲜战争打来了一个大工业，苏联把重装备生产线整装搬到了中国，也来了斯大林特色的国家资本主义。53 年朝鲜战争还没结束时，统战部长约教员报告，以现在的一般经验来看，东北留下的工业是斯大林主义的国家资本主义，如果战后留下了，建议改变经济发展模式。45 年时苏联对中共没那么信任，觉得是民族主义的农民党，加之雅尔塔协定老政客斯大林盘算惦记日本在东北的资产，故把日本留在东北的所有设备尽数抬走，也提防你发展工业与他对抗（苏联远东部署薄弱，东北强大的工业体系让斯大林极度缺乏安全感）。一场战争打成同盟关系了，战争后产业要不要留，当然要留。\n56 年教员约见荣毅仁，王光英两大民族资本家代表，咱们都是要为中华民族工业化的振兴，都被打了这么多年，你们说要不要加快工业化呢？当然是要。要加快工业化，要看谁快，是私人资本主义快，还是国家资本主义快，谁快谁改造谁。那当然是国家资本主义快，所以完成私人资本主义改造。\nPRC 的四场社会实验\n打破阶级实现均等\n49-79 年，5000 年的历史里，打破政权不新鲜，但打破阶级是头一次。从 50 年 6 月颁布土改法，开始从农村斗地主和富农，给了贫农和中农一次翻身的机会，这几个阶层开始流通起来。在城市，通过三大改造运动，开始公私合营，建立国有资本。五四宪法收尾明确了土地的国有性质，这个阶段，原来掌握生产资料的阶级被消灭。我们回头看，就城市和农村被打破的程度而言，农村破的要更彻底，它是通过斗争这种暴力形式实现的。城市就温柔很多，大部分靠兼并和赎买。这场打破阶级实验的目的是什么，5 个字，实现均等化。体现在就业、教育和医疗三方面。这场实验中，全国就业率大幅度提升，尤其是妇女就业。\n当然分粥的人多了，能分到的粥自然就变少了。虽然工资少，但有班上确实让人们的社会地位开始趋向平等化。建国20%的小学入学率到了 65 年也来到了 89%。远超世界上其他低收入国家。赤脚医生制度在 69 年就覆盖了农村 90%的人口。结果名副其实，但也是有代价，由于打破了农村传统的阶级结构，宗族社会，导致基层管理难度远大于过往的时代。基层干部其实只是管理者，大部分没水平也做不到士绅那样的意识形态引领者\n拥抱科技拥抱人性\n79-02 年，生产力水平不足，养不起越来越多的人口，鼓励会折腾敢折腾的老登们重操旧业，那群人或一代后代还在，唤醒他们的创业记忆，允许一部分人先富起来。苏联没改成功有一个原因是社会结构被打破太久了，能给市场经济注入活力的个体户们坟头草已经几米高了。就剩一群寡头了，你指望寡头们能给市场经济带来活力？他们只会瓜分，结果就是苏联被玩散了。\n92 南巡后大大加速，还迎来了 98 房改，最大的一次财富洗牌。这场实验中先富带动后富的美好愿望并没有实现，贫富差距的状况逐渐积累\n探索资源配置方式\n02-15年，开始探索钱怎么分，这也是难度系数最高的一场社会实验。因为需要平衡三大势力：政府、市场、人民。想玩好这场制衡游戏，需要用到 6 脉神剑：分别是政府干预、市场机制、权利作用、关系作用、单位作用、公民博弈。政府干预用多了，会造成国资垄断，市场搞不好呢，官场勾结就更容易发生。权利滋生腐败、关系破坏法制、单位造成分配不公（喝茶看报与 996）、公民博弈又会造成群体性事件。\n缓解社会冲突\n15 年至今，改开 40 年一直转型，转型就会带来矛盾，矛盾就会有冲突。西方解决矛盾主要靠对外转嫁，我们则尝试把危机和矛盾去内部消化。与西方相比，中国最大优势不是资源和人口，而是动员能力。口罩让双方又重新认知了一次对方，老美惊讶我们一键暂停的能力，而我们也见识了老美对生命漠视的下限。二者在文化上的差异显而易见，一个是和为贵，就是整体利益，和西方个体本位文化完全不同。这种不同也会体现在应对冲突的缓冲机制上，中国家庭有经济互助，西方亲戚间少经济往来，中国这种就像加了一种免疫体系，对冲突有一定的自愈能力，40 年来虽矛盾不断但并未形成全国性事件，文化属性下的自愈能力也发挥了功效。\n从历史的纵向比较来看，还是处于近 100 年来的比较好的发展时期，还属于大治之世。社会实验也不会止步于此，还会继续向前走。\n华莱士采访邓\n\n\n\n如果毛还在世，会怎么看现在中国的政策？似乎有违他的主张\n答：毛泽东思想，现在还是我们的指导思想，可见我们没有违背他的主张。（打马虎眼过去了）\n\n\n邓领导下的中国和毛领导下的不一样，似乎在进行另一场革命\n答：（这个答起来就比较来劲）我们的确在进行一场革命，但中国还是那个中国，没有改变，这样做的目的还是为了让中国人民过上好日子「用商品经济的手段解决物资短缺的时局状况」，只不过我们对于过去的经验有一些总结，提出一些新的看法，如果建设共产主义我们总要摸索前进，不能因为现在有所不同就片面否定过去，我们本质没有改变。\n\n\n站着回头看\n三中全会后，邓的实用思想管了几十年，有它的功效和历史地位，就是解构毛的一套，有助于人的思想解放，大搞建设积累资产追赶科技，但回避了中国到底要一个怎样的发展与文明目标的问题，其局限性和带来的问题今天已非常明显。当前的当局（曾）想捏合毛与邓的思想，何其难也，也正凸显伟人只有一个。虽然现在也到了一个时候，需重新定义民族的现代性构建方向，价值标准。\n这个世界教员看得很清楚，一直强调自强并团结（天安门城楼的标语也在 1950 年由「中央人民政府万岁」换成「世界人民大团结万岁」），其留给人民真正的强者文化是：自强辅弱，团结互助，平等尊重。而不良强者向人民灌输片面自强，引向极端利己主义，忽略团结，这也是不良者希望看到的结果，而他们自己抱团。人民也的确就被片面的强者文化引向利己，继而再次对自己的同胞带上傲慢与偏见。当你深入了解那片土地，就能深刻理解那片土地的人民配得上他们的苦难。\n\n教员可称为新墨家的钜子，先秦墨家评断可见墨家从流行到没落，以庄子的话说墨子反天下之心，注定无法长久。墨子在的时候能很好协调墨徒的兼容性，钜子走后时代分裂和门人凋敝和之前也挺像，现行秦墨之道，身在其中，祝福祖国繁荣富强。\n中国家庭没有看到国有企业的高利润变成自己财富的一部分，当然从长远看，国企创造的财富被重新分配，着实在二次分配中为公民服务了，但现在普通家庭认为他们并未从中受益，所以消费水平比他们的实际购买力低。\n为什么解放军那么受欢迎爱戴\n抛开思想，那几乎是教员留下来的唯一遗产了，让我们绕过无耻知识分子的笔锋一窥开国时的气象。\n教员给中国底层造了个梦\n如「历史的教训」里说到的：\n\n人们间天然的不平等，就算发生了财富再分配，很快会发生新的占有和特权的不平等。唯一真正革命，是对心灵的启蒙和对个性的提升。\n唯一真正的革命者，是哲学家和圣人。\n\n而教员确是真正的革命者，不忘初心，可称圣人，又身兼哲学家，给神州大地留下了宝贵的主体性思想财产。二战以后，人类才步入人民史观的时代，且只有中国进入到这个时代，例如我们的邻居日本和韩国是血缘贵族时代。\n除去上古传说里的人物，他是中国 5 千年里第一个也是唯一一个舍弃自我利益，真正为底层民众谋福利的开国领袖（唯一自始至终都在为民奋斗，堪称真正的孤勇者），太多起义之初都宣称推翻残暴的统治者，为大众建立一个平等幸福的社会，但一旦政权得立，无一不一改嘴脸，把自己高高置于百姓之上，使天下重新成为一人之天下，一家之天下，一党之天下，因为皇帝轮流做，千里做官只为财的思想早已根植在中国，这些「思想钢印」老百姓也习惯了。当教员出现之后，人们才发现原来天下竟然也会有总是为穷人着想的队伍。\n他也是唯一一个改变人性的领导者，历史为什么总是循环往复？因为历史归根结底是由人性推动的，几千年来，人性是从来没有改变过的，人性中会有偶尔的光芒，但主要是贪婪，自私，这是生物本身的属性决定的，说不上多邪恶。然而，教员领导的革命和PRC却让人性中的光芒成为了主流，人们只有职业不同，思想简单纯粹，一心只想把国家建设好，之前的时代涌现了太多雷锋，焦裕禄式的传奇人物，这些都是与传统人性斗争中的奇迹。这些奇迹正是在教员领导的下的 RPC 人民创造的。遗憾的是奇迹只能保留在我们的记忆中了。因为，伟人不在了，而人性却一直没有改变。\n世间从不缺好的思想，制度，但缺抱有赤子之心一以贯之的人。一个没有英雄的国家是可悲的，一个连英雄都不知崇拜的民族是没有未来的。换句话说，什么是制度什么是文明？一个靠战争掠夺他国资源维持就是文明制度？一个讲小礼小节却无情屠戮他国就是文明？一个人前彬彬有礼身后殖民他国就是绅士？\n梦的希望\n古往今来，凡是讲了真话让他们幻想破灭的人，都会被他们群起攻之成为牺牲品，凡是能向他们提供美丽幻象的人，都很容易成为他们的主人，被他们膜拜。他们是不能活在真相里，而是需要活在希望里。《乌合之众》里说，谁掌握了影响大众想象力的艺术，就掌控了统治他们的艺术。\n\n如果人人都能享受闲暇和生活保障，原来由于贫困而愚昧无知的绝大多数人就会学习文化，独立思考，迟早就会认识到少数特权阶层的人没有作用，他们就会把他们扫除掉。从长期来看，等级社会只有在贫困和无知的基础上才能存在。— from 《1984》\n\n无论社会如何发展，都只是整体抬升，结构是大致不变的，放眼全球都是一群不良强者不择手段掠夺底层（教员之所以伟大，是他作为已站在世界最强者行列却从不愚弄弱者，从不欺凌弱者，而是像父亲、战士一样，教导者学生，关爱着子女，守护着人民）。\n\n看清人类的本质，世界上成熟的人只有1%，99%的人都是不成熟的巨婴，不可能掌握真理。他们并不想要真相和价值，它们只是渴望被理解和被认同。\n放宽一点，这个世界大约只有 5% 的人有愿望积累只是了解过去（还不一定能掌握真理），95%就是活着\n\n教员的晚年可用一词悲壮来概括。若没有晚年的坚守，他可能和历史上的人物区别不大。前半生是历史，后半生是人民。前者顺势而为，后者逆天而行。历史上打着人民旗号的比比皆是，前期都还好，遇难时需要人民，后面顺历史之势及欲望膨胀，几乎都变了。教员从青年到离去，心中和行动都未曾改变，以他的智慧比任何人都明白历史顺势和人性，只是他心里装的都是几千年来被称为沙子的人民。\n他看到了人民之光，知道自己走后很难能压住不良抬头，所以在余下的生命里拖着垂暮之躯，为人民发出最后一次明知不可为而为之的冲锋。他完全不在乎后面可能来的诋毁，哪怕毁了自己，知道会失败，只是在为人民拖延时间，让人民有时间成长起来，人人如龙，成为他超越他（只是已太老，队伍中也很多人不理解漏洞百出，无法成功）。离别前他心里只有担忧，六朝何事，只成门户私计，只有力不从心，以后你们怎么办，只有天知道，好在通过几代的交接和人民的不懈奋斗，中国现在已成为联合国的上三常，G2的一员，要为世界人民盖五件大瓦房，为世界走一条不同西方强盗的路。\n社与资的区别\n社和资的不同在于一个群体对另个群体的态度，讨好精英阶层比替底层说话更容易，走社本就是一个更难走的路（套用《历史的教训》里说的共产主义更似一个战时经济，不消一代人的和平就会被人的本性所侵蚀，这也是教员说的门户私计）。\n拿捏平衡社资融合\n四十年来我们经济飞速增长，达成国富，但我们现在面临的最大问题仍然是贫穷，富裕起来的只是沿海地区和少数的人群。经济的告诉增长掩盖或使得大家忘记了很多社会问题，我们那个体制的问题病的很重，分配不公和司法腐败，不满情绪实际也很多，一旦经济增速下来，这些被掩盖的问题都会回来。\n如题。在国家资本主义的工业化强国路上，旧道德并未带上路。现在艺术就是在拿捏平衡，在2049 年完成更好的治理现代性，从官僚垄断资本主义的沼泽中再拔回来一些（大洋彼岸是深陷金融垄断资本主义的泥沼，在乎赚取时间的速度，其它它都不关心，财富集中，外部压力减少，内部撕裂），重新在分配上找到更平衡的前进之道，全球或许最终走向是社和资的融合结果。\n\n列宁的国家资本主义有实用性，都非常成功的解决了工业化问题。发展到一定阶段，一定会出现官僚垄断资本主义，体现在经济、财政，金融，要素（如土地）的扭曲，例如90%税收主要来自于劳动者劳动，而不是对资本利得课税，这点就很扭曲。中国进入新世纪的阶段是官僚垄断资本主义，如何跨过是两个100年之间很有挑战的一个课题。\n\n中庸现实最优解\n教员是猛人，然后就需要守成之君。回到现实要改善老百姓的生活，首要矛盾就是生产力水平（更纯粹的内核是科学技术是第一生产力，能促进生产力的东西很多，糟粕也不少）。\n在这件事上引入资本主义和市场经济，发挥了重大的功效，或者一万年太久只争朝夕的话，甚至说必须要这么做。资本主义的贪婪和攀比心能牵动你的欲望，让你玩命干活（在不平等的社会里，人们会变得更在乎社会地位，变得喜欢跟别人比较，这场没有尽头的竞争，这就是资本主义）。\n\n在一定的阶段，人们需要被激励，所以不可能让每个人都赚同样多的钱，因为那样就没人努力工作。资本主义是创造财富的最佳方式，中国有 8 亿人摆脱了贫困。\n\n计划经济的问题\n大家经常提到计划经济的优势是集中力量办大事，但随着发展久了，最先集中起来的是干不好事的官僚（草台班子）。苏联号称全知全能国家计划委员会实际上不懂需求和供给，输出的自然是无效的生产和原料指标。\n信息失真\n他们不懂，会要求基层上报数据，但农庄会瞒报损失，工厂会夸大困难索要更多资源，信息传到莫斯科早就变了味，有个笑话。苏联皮鞋产量世界第一，但老百姓还是没皮鞋穿。因为工厂为了完成指标，全造了44码的大鞋，因为尺码大，用料多。\n决策滞后\n另一个严重问题是决策滞后，常做出的是上一代的图纸追赶下一代的市场的决策，这种问题使得苏联的家电业始终落后活在时差里，导航失效。计划经济里要把价格导航员绑起来，官员说了算。\n创新无力\n计划经济致命的短板，藏在（民生）『创新』这两个字里，在市场经济中，企业不创新，就会被淘汰。计划经济里只要完成指标就能活得滋润，谁还愿意费劲？伏尔加汽车几十年没改过，so what，计划指标里又没有用户体验这一项。 到了 80 年代，苏联的科技成果转化率只有美国的 1/3，工厂里设备平均寿命比美国长一倍，生产效率只有对方50%。\n恶性飞轮\n恶性循环，越想靠计划控制经济，越需要庞大的官僚体系，可官僚越庞大，信息越失真，腐败越严重，大家都看到了关系才有用。\n我们就比较灵活，弄了一套社会主义市场经济，既跳脱计划经济的僵化，又尝试规避市场经济的盲目性。\n靠对外开放启动的中国市场\n走上市场经济道路后封闭经济体往往要走漫长的积累阶段。因为生产端和需求端起初都穷，借贷太快会让资方都更快死火。（从企业角度是看不到劳动者和消费者的统一性的，他看到的是消费者没钱消费，我手里现金也不足，借钱扩大了生产没人买不就砸手里欠一屁股债，所以企业不敢冒险去借债），财富车轮有一个慢启动过程（一点点的赚取利润，用利润一点点扩大规模，劳动者收入跟着缓慢增长，消费能力缓慢强起来）\n有没有办法加速这个过程？这就不得不提到外贸和房地产了，房地产本质是在鼓励借贷，外贸就是去赚外国人的钱，国内人没钱消费，但国外有啊，新兴市场有成本优势，抢市场。我们干有成本优势，但无资金无技术，那就开放让外资和技术进来。\n在外部看来，投资新兴市场是血赚不亏的，汇率优势有升值预期，还有成本优势，投资中国企业要求汇报高利率，享受汇率和企业利润的双重收益。劳动者有钱了又拉动了内需，各行各业就借贷扩张，进入高发展飞轮。我们获得了外国市场，学到了技术，也快速完成了14亿人需求的货币化。给世界的补偿就是14亿人的巨大市场。\n回看市场经济\n现阶段，总体市场经济提高了中国人民的生活水平，代表了大部分人的利益，也有一部分人不公平。我们自己需要去调整它，从根本利益的角度，我们要去平衡和分配它，都是挑战和课题。它有马太效应，反而会制约生产力。资本主义不能失控，可以说是生产力掩盖了资本主义的弱点。\n从三个代表的角度来看，「资本和市场」确实代表先进生产力的方向，但其不一定孕育先进文化（例如消费文化可能就是有毒的文化），是否代表人民群众的根本利益这事讲起来复杂。是公有制效率高还是私有制效率高？要看什么地方私有制，该公有的一定要公有。\n中庸之道的反义词二极管，在国家运用中庸之道不能当成不思进取，而是合适，或者说最优解。\n国家资本主义的巅峰\n资本主义为了苟延残喘，会演化出它可能的一切形态，它允许国家扮演越来越重要的角色，调整其最初的纯粹私有制属性。如北欧式社会主义，特点是强化监管，提高税收，提供完善的社会福利体系，但本质仍是私人资本主义占据社会经济的主体。苏联自称实行社会主义制度，与北欧类似，但本质不同，政府全面接管并运营企业，这并未改变企业里雇主-雇员的结构，还是少数人说了算，如老板，经理等，管着一大帮打工的。前者占有后者的剩余价值，而不是反过来。这是一种高度结构化的权力布局，这种形态就是资本主义（生产过程中的雇佣关系），不论是私人还是政府来扮演雇主的角色。\n中国是一种新的实验形式，不同于苏联全包，北欧小政府大私营，而是55 开的混合经济模式，有一个权力极大的国家和执政党在上统领，是一种制度创新，创造的成就远超其他体制。就像封建时代的绝对君主制一样，是封建制度最辉煌的成就。中国的成功关键在于探索出了贴合国情的独特资本主义形态，成功实现脱贫，过去的贫困落后，科技不兴，发展停滞给甩进太平洋里，过上新生活。\n当今世界所有前沿技术，几乎都来自中美，欧洲一无所有。现在中美都在转折点上。中国特色混合资本主义既是资本主义最辉煌的巅峰，也将是其绝唱。\n回望四十年发展\n中国把西方工业革命三百年的发展压缩在半个世纪，这个大成绩跟中国文化传统有关， 也跟成功的社会，政治，经济政策有关。中美两国虽都有严重的贫富差距问题，但美国似乎有不愿意解决没能力解决的负债累累问题。他发明一个债务控制法，让底层人来负债，制造现代社会中的债务奴隶。例如教育负债，学生贷款甚至都得还 30 年。\n文化传统\n\n勤俭民风\n艰苦耐劳\n无种姓制度\n长久统一之传统\n\n政府贡献\n\n扫除文盲\n高速基建\n安定的社会\n\n内卷是因为都想当人上人\n当 14 亿人有 10 亿人都想要公平正义的时候，公平正义才可能实现，14 亿人都想骑到别人头上当人上人，那永远是上层倾轧下层，层内内卷。因为除了塔尖，金字塔每层都有人在你上面压着。你相当人上人时，也就接受了有人是你的人上人，也没有把包括自己在内的多数人当人看。\n现代经济里需要的就是把人训练成标准化，可替换的螺丝钉，磨损了可换一个，而不是忍受他在社会机器里吱吱呀呀地摩擦，拖累整个机器的运转。虽听起来残酷，但符合市场发展的规律。市场就是要筛选出效率更高的劳动力，把资源配置到最有效的地方。\n旧螺丝何去何从？你说旧螺丝太多了，机器没那么多空间容纳它们，没有那么多产能为它们考虑，旧螺丝日日夜夜磨损自己推动机器高速运转那么多年，攒下的产能去哪了呢？能不能用来提升一下旧螺丝的生存质量？这样的话人员淘汰也不是什么大问题。人能有脱产时间学习新技能，试错找到新阶段自己擅长的东西。\n总有说法，不能把螺丝的待遇搞得太好，那样大家都会变成懒汉，公社时期就是这样，殊不知这本就是以偏概全的谬论。时代有变化，现代经济最缺的不是生产，是需求，催生海量需求的往往是伟大的技术和理论，而伟大的技术和理论往往是用安全感和无聊感催生的，而不是 996 和低薪。给老百姓给生存基线拉上来，社会福利搞上去，才能最大化激发数亿人的创造力。\n当大多数人感到痛的时候，那现有发展模式一定快走到头了。少子化，老龄化，才是最大的民族风险，而不是异族天灾战争。降低每个个体的生存压力，让每个人有尊严的活着，引导大家平等对待每个同类，不要把占有更多权与钱当成所有人唯一的生命追求。族群的创造力才会被激发，才会有取之不尽的需求与生产，需求与生产的高速转换，又会创造无穷的财富。\n征税再平衡\n富人确实在创造岗位，我们也需要创新者，但没有谁能单靠自己创造巨量财富，我们需要一个持续运作的社会基础设施，英雄的成功也只是创造了部分，所有人的成就都基于前几代人的努力还有纳税资助的研究，所以他们应该缴税，但不是全部上交。\n向富人征税，是为了构建基础设施（机会、医疗保健），就像大学就是一个好投资，常返回超 10 倍的输出。相较而言，美国一切都在私有化，这就是资本主义意识形态失控的表现。资本主义在某些方面是好的，但教育应该是免费的，至少对负担不起学费的阶级免费。\n中国的领导层知道需要科技，所以在这里的大学学费很便宜，中国在这些年中的科技进步离不开理工科教育的大规模投入和供给。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"Python的起源和认识","url":"/Python%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90%E5%92%8C%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86.html","content":"\nPython的创始人是一个荷兰人，Guido van Rossum （吉多·范罗苏姆），89年圣诞节期间，在阿姆斯特丹，guido为了解决在分布式系统Amoeba项目中重复编写C语言工具代码的烦心问题，决心开发一个新的脚本解释程序，把写过的C语言小程序粘贴在一起构成一个新的工具。从89年12月开始编写，91年2月开源发布。91年10月第一版Unicode标准才发布，这给Python埋下了Python2和Python3版本分裂的隐患。\n作者其实并不喜欢语言和大蟒蛇关联上，选中大蟒蛇作为编程语言的名字，取自英文20世纪70年代首播的电视喜剧《蒙提.派森的飞行马戏团》(Monty Python’s Flying Circus)，那是他喜欢的一个马戏团的名字，也符合编程语言名称来源于名人的名字的习惯，如pascal，ada，eiffel\n发明Python的背景\nGuido1982年从阿姆斯特丹大学获得数学和计算机硕士双学位，接触过当时的多种流行语言，Pascal，C，Fortran。大学毕业加入CWI（荷兰教育部和其他研究基金资助的研究中心，国家数学和计算机科学研究中心），在CWI中，他参与了Amoeba项目，为两所机构共同参与开发的基于微内核的分布式系统。\n在这个项目中，Guido发现用C语言开发系统管理程序所花费的时间太长了，且Amoeba是一个全新的底层操作系统实现，导致了和原有的Bourne shell不兼容，在Bourne shell无法执行Amoeba项目之中的一些程序。这些原因让Guido意识到它需要一个能弥合C和shell间鸿沟，更高抽象级别，更加简单的编程语言去完成工作任务。\n为什么选择造轮子发明python，而不是移植其它编程语言？那是因为当初并没有其它编程语言可以完成这些任务。\n\nABC语言\nABC语言是在CWI主导研发的一种交互式，结构化高级语言，旨在替代basic，pascal等语言，用于教学机原型软件设计。Python的创始人在80年代曾在ABC系统开发中工作了数年。\n特点\nABC语言的设计者称其代码量通常为Pascal或C语言的1/4，且具备更强的可读性，其主要特点如下：\n\n只有五种基本数据类型\n不需要变量声明（动态变量）\n明确支持自上而下的编程\n语句嵌套由缩进来表示\n精度，列表，字符串均无限制\n\n未能流行的原因\nABC是由Guido参加设计的一种教学语言，就Guido本人看来，ABC这种语言非常优美强大，是专门为非专业程序员设计的。但ABC语言并不成功，一方面是Guido认为ABC不开放，故Guido决心在Python中避免这一错误，且还想在其中实现在ABC中闪现过但未曾实现的东西。就Guido本人看来，ABC失败的原因是\n\n高级语言为时过早\n平台迁移能力弱，难以添加新功能\n仅仅专注于编程初学者，没有把有经验的编程人员纳入其中\n\n其通过python解决了其一些问题，让拓展模块的编写非常容易，且可在多平台进行运行。可以说，Python是从ABC发展起来的，主要受到了Modula-3（另一种相当优美且强大的语言，为小型团队所设计的）的影响，且结合了Unix shell和C的习惯。\nPython的特色\n小的核心语言+大的标准库\nPython并没有把所有功能特性都嵌入到它的核心代码中。Python 的设计是高度可扩展。由于看到ABC语言的失败，Guido van Rossum认为“小的核心语言”+“大的标准库”才是他需要的\n优雅-明确-简单的哲学\n在语法层面，Python拒绝了强大并复杂的语法（比如Perl的语法），而倾向于一种更简单、更简洁的语法。Python 的哲学拒绝 Perl“语言设计的方法不止一种”，而倾向于”应该有一种——最好只有一种——显而易见的方法”。\n像Perl让人诟病的一点，就是它过于灵活，源代码常常难以阅读，甚至被称作write-only语言。当代码量达到成百上千行的规模，想在Perl中进行维护，就需要大量的纪律约束。而在Python中就没有这个烦恼，显得尤为优美。\n最好是只有一种方法来做一件事”，也因此它和拥有明显个人风格的其他语言很不一样。如果面临多种选择，Python开发者一般会拒绝花俏的语法，而选择明确没有或者很少有歧义的语法。这些准则被称为“Python格言”：\n优美胜于丑陋（Python 以编写优美的代码为目标）明了胜于晦涩（优美的代码应当是明了的，命名规范，风格相似）简洁胜于复杂（优美的代码应当是简洁的，不要有复杂的内部实现）复杂胜于凌乱（如果复杂不可避免，那代码间也不能有难懂的关系，要保持接口简洁）扁平胜于嵌套（优美的代码应当是扁平的，不能有太多的嵌套）间隔胜于紧凑（优美的代码有适当的间隔，不要奢望一行代码解决问题）可读性很重要（优美的代码是可读的）不要包容所有错误，除非你确定需要这样做（精准地捕获异常，不写 except:pass 风格的代码）当存在多种可能，而是尽量找一种，最好是唯一一种明显的解决方案如果你无法向人描述你的方案，那肯定不是一个好方案；反之亦然（方案测评标准）命名空间是一种绝妙的理念，我们应当多加利用（倡导与号召）\n更甚者，Python 的开发人员努力避免过早优化，并拒绝对 CPython 的非关键部分进行补丁，这些补丁将以成本为代价，提供边际增长速度。\nPython与C的不同\nPython大量使用了C语言里的设计，但它是一门动态语言。\n\n不像C语言一样需预先声明变量和指定变量类型，运行时也可以改变变量类型，也内置了大量的数据类型\n为了程序的模块化，引入了包，模块，类，方法和函数\n所有对象都是一等对象，这意味着函数，类，方法，模块和所有其它对象都可以在运行时自由传递，并放入在各种数据结构中去\n\nPython在刚开始时是一个个人独自维护的项目，没任何官方预算和支持，要快速有结果，所以有偷懒的设计哲学，性能也不是他的重要追求目标。对Python的发展也没什么预期，觉得它就跟当时做过的许多失败项目一样，没什么特别突出。\n作者对Python的目标\n\n一门简单直观的语言并与主要竞争者一样强大\n开源，以便任何人都可以为它做贡献\n代码像纯英语那样容易理解\n适用于短期开发的日常任务\n\n变态缩进\nPython使用功能缩进区分编程语句来源于ABC编程语言，虽然不是首创者，但ABC编程语言的作者确实发明了使用冒号将导入语句（lead-in clause）与缩进块 (intented block)分开的方式。\n代码缩进并不是作者要如此[5]，是因为30年前的代码编辑器都不能很好地对代码进行缩进排版。在同事的启发下作者就鼓励程序员自己来对代码进行正确的排版(作者也承认严格要求代码缩进确实有些夸张，改用花括号，也不是不可以)。确保从视觉上对代码的理解与编译器对代码的解析是一致的，这还挺重要。一些代码安全漏洞事故，就是由于代码中语句与程序员实际设想的if-else语法逻辑没有匹配引起的。\n青出于蓝\n作为ABC语言的一种继承及目标客服其失败，从早期的版本开始，Python就提供了一系列内置功能，被称为“Battery Included（内置电池）”，得益于Python开放易拓展的属性，最终拥有极其强大的标准库，是整个社区的贡献，让它从众多编程语言中容易脱颖而出。\nPython最开始的发展其实非常缓慢，也非常小众，因为在计算机资源非常有限的年代，大家都倾向于最大化榨取计算机资源并提升运算效率，而Python显然不是为此而生。\n得到大家的青睐，主要是在90年代末期，很多科学家开始进行科学计算时，就像Python作者一样用Python来作为胶水语言，调用原来由fortran或C++编写的代码。对于这些科学家来说，Python是非常顺手的工具。\n\n\n对初学者非常友好。Python 的语法简单直观，几乎就像是用英语写的，学习曲线平缓\n\n\n在数据科学、机器学习和人工智能领域提供了众多包，这些包或者是被科学家用于数据分析建模，或者被广泛部署在工业界的生产系统，经受了学术圈和工业界的检验。\n\n\n\n\n2018年guido在和Python社区斗争多年以后，选择退出独裁模式，2019年建立了委员会来管理python的走向，此后python就发展的越来越好\n作者的程序哲学\n底层概念与复杂体系\n我们不能把计算机当作是一个魔法盒子，而要去了解它是如何运作的。这样虽然不一定能成为最厉害的程序员，但会比那些完全不懂基本概念的程序员更了解软件和计算机的弱点和约束，从而更好地运用各种软件工具，避免愚蠢的错误。\n软件实际上是有多层结构组成的，这有点像生物的进化，一方面DNA编码方式已经有10亿年没有发生变化了，就像计算机体系中的比特，字节，指针和内存一样（在软件当中其实最终都是指针，内存和计算，了解这些最底层概念非常重要），水藻化石中发现的远古细胞跟现代的细胞，没有太大的形态变化，不同类的多细胞可组成不同的器官，各种不同的器官最终又组成了人类，人类自己又构成了人类社会。软件也像这样，软件领域里最重要的事情就是通过网络把计算机都联系在了一起，从而能基于简单的细小结构构建出多层次的大型复杂体系，在简单中蕴含着高层级的结构，这里面具有超乎想象的灵活性和可能性。\n\n**Guido：**我认为对编程来说真正酷的事情，是将新软件构建于先前软件的基础之上，现在的程序员编写代码可以借鉴前人的代码。\n\n开放与合作\nGuido自认为自己不是全能型的程序员，所以他只负责制订框架。如果问题太复杂，他会选择绕过去，也就是cut the corner。这些问题最终由社区中的其他人解决。社区中的人才是异常丰富的，就连创建网站，筹集基金这样与开发稍远的事情，也有人乐意于处理。如今的项目开发越来越复杂，越来越庞大，合作以及开放的心态成为项目最终成功的关键\n最爱Pascal的优雅\n其最早是1974与1975年在阿姆斯特丹开始学习编程。学的第一门语言是 ALGOL 60，还学过一些别的语言，但他最爱的是 Pascal，它是一门非常优雅的语言[5]。在这个过程中，其逐渐了解一门编程语言应有的特性，以及它们在处理具体问题时各自的特点。例如，在 ALGOL 60 里是没有字符串类型的，如果想定义一个标识符就必须用一种魔法一般的方式来处理字符串，这种魔法在不同的输入硬件上的施展方式还不一样——要知道当时是通过穿孔卡片来输入代码的，每一种卡片机都是不同的。而 Pascal 在处理字符串上也很有一套，他认为 Pascal 非常优雅，能帮程序员高效率编程。\n目标感与当下主义者\n有些人非常有驱动力，目标明确，访谈中Python作者就提到盖茨及一个摇滚乐手，做事非常有计划，有些人则没有雄心勃勃的创业理想或商业目标，如Unix创造者之一也是贝尔实验室花了一番功夫才说服加入，Python之父在年轻时也不知道自己将要干什么，更关注当下，而不是未来主义者。\n教堂与集市\n微软就像大教堂，开源则像集市？作者在微软工作过一段时间，他认为其实大公司不止有一个风格，内部实际上还有众多不同的部落，彼此有不同的目标及做事方式，有的人不怎么关心软件只关心钱，有的相反，有的不关心使用软件的人，还有人关心使用软件的人及软件如何帮助这些人，你可以找到属于自己的部落。\n创造性还无银弹\n人的大脑可能才是软件开发效率的天花板，而不是屏幕上能显示多少行代码、或者编译器能跑得多快。新出现的 GitHub Copilot，一用就喜欢上了它，它太棒了，但其也不认为这是提升代码编写效率的银弹——因为它自动生成了 10 行代码，你还得花时间去确认这 10 行代码所做的事情确实就是你想要的。\nPython作者想起来以前听过一个笑话，在MS-DOS年代，有个外行项目经理领导一个项目，要交付一百来个用户界面的应用，期限是6个星期，到了第三个星期，他们还没生成一个用户界面，这个项目经理非常焦虑，对他来说团队生产效率就是0！然而程序员却说，他们正在构建一个工具，这个工具会在最后两天自动生成这100多个用户界面。这大概是所有程序员都梦寐以求的事情，事实上他当初创建Python时也是这么想的，他通过Python把原来C语言写的小程序都粘连在一起，很快完成了任务。这说明他非常在意创造性与效率提升。\n移动设备上Python不太成功\n移动操作系统，套接字和信号行为和Unix有所不同，且禁止许多syscall，子进程使用受限。\nGuido说：CPython（官方的Python解释器）已有30年的历史了，它最初是为了工作站，台式机和服务器环境诞生的，但那些没法让CPython能在移动设备上运行的人们发现，Python消耗了太多的资源。\n他又补充说到：与期待中在移动操作系统运行的情况相比，Python又大又慢，运行Python编写的应用会迅速消耗电池电量和内存。\n因为Python应用需要自己的运行环境副本，意味着Python需缩小规模以顺利运行在移动设备，也有人建议过创建一个简化内核版本的Python以解决该问题。\n\n当时BeeWare联合创始人Russell Keith-Magee有一种Python的”存在恐慌“：当iPad成为主流，笔记本电脑不过是细分设备时，Python会发生什么？\n但AI世代的降临又让它飞上了天。\n\nPython为什么这么慢？\nPython速度真的是相当慢。最简单的整数循环耗时是未优化C程序的近30倍\n\n\nPython编译器还真是很少进行优化，比如明显的对i反复LOAD_FAST和STORE_FAST，可以改为一直在栈上操作。然而在Python里尝试做这种优化，和把基于栈的指令集改成基于寄存器一样，是没有关注到重点。\n\n\n如果是基于寄存器的指令集，那么最好情况下所有LOAD_FAST, LOAD_CONST, STORE_FAST指令可以去掉，指令数由9条减少到4条，看起来是很大的进步。然而“数指令数估计时间”这种思路并不适用于Python VM。\n\n\n所有指令都没有类型，或者说都是“抽象”操作。这与JVM形成了鲜明对比：JVM内置了多种基本类型，并且指令都指定了类型，比如iload,iadd。为了效率，Java甚至把这些类型在语言层面暴露出来，哪怕基本类型和对象类型语义不一致给初学者带来了困惑。\n\n\n如果把基于栈的虚拟机改为基于寄存器，确定能省掉的是TARGET和FAST_DISPATCH这种纯解释开销和POP_TOP/ROT_THREE这种栈操作指令，但是又要增加寄存器间复制的指令。核心并不是基于寄存器还是基于栈，也不是只要指令少就快。\n\n\n前面说了，Python字节码都是抽象的，所以INPLACE_ADD并不知道操作数能不能作inplace（不产生新对象）的加法，所以binary_iop1要去判断操作数是否支持。恰好int因为是immutable type，不支持inplace操作（nb_inplace_add=NULL），那么就要用普通的加法（nb_add）。\n\n\n由于不能inplace，每次n+=1要new一个新的int对象，还要free掉原来的对象。\n\n\n另外还要处理一大堆情况，比如加法既可以由左操作数定义也可以由右操作数定义；如果两边都定义了，而一个是另一个的子类，还要优先用子类的方法。\n\n\n和前面一样，最终实际干活的函数是由对象类型动态决定的。在我们的例子里对象是int，所以调用了long_add。由于int支持任意精度整数，long_add实现很长；\n\n\n“实际干活”的指令最后会用DISPATCH而不是FAST_DISPATCH，区别是前者会检查是否需要释放GIL给别的线程。这里需要原子地读一个标志，所以比FAST_DISPATCH慢不少。LOAD/STORE等指令用FAST_DISPATCH的原因是 1) 它们总是围绕着实际干活的指令，没必要这么频繁地检查 2) 实际干活的指令由于会调用用户代码，执行时间可以任意长，所以如果每几条指令才检查一次标志，线程切换延迟可能会很大；而LOAD等指令执行时间比较短，不检查标志也不会给线程切换带来很大延迟。\n\n\n所以Python为什么慢？一个整数加法，用C就是一条机器指令，Lua大概十几行C代码，而Python需要经过近百行C代码。这些代码都干啥了？\n\nLua VM的指令集虽然也是抽象的，但对应的数据类型是确定的几种，因此不像Python对所有指令都要dynamic dispatch。\nPython的加法语义设计得非常灵活，可以定义在左操作数/右操作数/两边同时定义… 进一步增加了dynamic dispatch的逻辑。\nPython的int没有使用机器native整型，而是自己定义的任意精度整型格式。因此即使数据范围可以被native整型支持，整数运算逻辑仍然较复杂。\n\n实际上不只是整数运算，作为面向对象语言最核心的“调用方法”和“访问对象自身属性”两个操作，Python也是非常慢。\n性能好的语言\n总的来说，Python性能为什么这么差？性能好的语言大体分两类：\n\n被设计成高性能。如C，Java。这类语言在设计之初就把性能放在优先位置，愿意为之作各种牺牲，比如前面提到的，Java作为面向对象语言而为基本类型搞特殊规则；而后面加新功能时，往往首先问的也是这是否会使现有程序变慢。\n设计时不重视性能，后期被强烈的性能需求和砸钱搞成高性能。如Javascript。\n\n而对Python设计者来说，有太多因素排在性能之前：易学，灵活性（比如加法的各种定义方法），概念简单（比如把int/long合并成一个任意精度整数类型）。即使有人愿意砸钱，设计者也不见得配合你，比如提出各种与性能优化相悖的向后兼容要求…\nPython3对Python2的抛弃\n为了修复缺陷，更好地适应新环境，让Python更有生命力，Python社区做了一个非常有决断的动作，推出Python 3，不向后兼容。Python 3 开发的重点是清理代码库并删除冗余，清晰地表明只能用一种方式来执行给定的任务。\n\n语法差异：Python2在语法上更倾向于简单明了，但某些设计可能会引起混淆，Python3的语法更加一致和清晰\n标准库改进：3对异步IO的支持，更好的日期和时间库等\n性能改进：性能上3开展了很多优化，某些功能执行效率更高\n字符串和字节处理：Python2字符串类型不区分Unicode和字节字符串，在处理非ASCII字符文本时可能造成混淆，Python3所有字符串都是Unicode，字符串和字节串有明确区分\n改进的编程功能：函数注解，类型提示，先进的异步编程等，更易读更易维护\n\n引用\n1.博客园 Python的起源 ↩2.知乎 Python早期设计与开发：从ABC到Python ↩3.刘缙 Lua 的速度为什么比 Python 快？ ↩4.36Kr Python 之父：移动设备中的 Python 应用“又大又慢” ↩5.36kr 对话Python之父：人类大脑才是软件开发效率的天花板 ↩6.标点符 认识Python：起源与发展 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"RPA-POC观察","url":"/RPA-POC%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F.html","content":"\nPOC\n目标\n\n提供技术可行性验证，展示课预估的商业价值\n\n技术：识别关键的技术壁垒，验证后续的扩展性\n商业：是否可以得到预期的回报\nProposal三种方案，一种是BP（BluePrism），一种是AA（AutomationAnywhere），AA和BP都是基于.net的，会.net比较好\n另一个是UIPATH，罗马尼亚的一家公司创造出来的，进行广泛的授权合作，也有一定的跟随者。\nPOC过程\n1.业务案例（访谈）-- &gt; 2.RPA场景提取（机会识别）–&gt; 3. 搭建原型（实施开发）–&gt; 4.评估（原型验证）–&gt; 5.试点运行（小规模部署/生产化）\n本文的过程在1~3环节，以期筛选出合适的合作商\n本身是成本优化项目，成本考量同样需关注\n基本问题：使用率如何定义？机器人设备的部署量如何评估？普遍现状：一个终端同时在运行一个机器人任务\nPOC感受\n\n正所谓人靠衣装，佛靠金装。体会到了职场的场面的重要性，机会降临给准备充分的人\n流程及流程输出物的标准化\n高强度，一点不比系统研发轻松\n\n合作商过程记录\n\nISearch\nQ：一定要虚拟化终端？A：不要求Q：任务的部署下发是指定终端，还是全终端有全部的待运行任务Q：多终端的中间结果互通整合，如何处理？A：支持在服务端的数据打通Q：申请个单独的机器人账号最好Q：设计器的软件如何安装？A：非标准软件，可以分Set控制配置不同的服务端Q：如何分开各部门的权限？A：回复待确认是否有任务资源的编辑访问控制基于UIPATH\n上海的公司，国内做RPA比较早，其最大优势是有一些既有的国内客户，如银行，已有实施案例。曾经一度是重点考察对象，成本优势应该也是有的。\n安永\n基于UIPATHQ：推荐的开发语言是什么？对VB的支持是最好的，其余几种语言还不确定支持完备度如何Q：UIPATH的Studio对任务的配置，没有中间层的调配管理，全量推送到机器人终端。有Server的三层方案在中华区还没有应用案例碰到的问题，就是个性化系统的操作识别有些问题，但UIPATH有较好的扩展性，还要考虑是否与终端软件的防护有无冲突。\n远程参会，两轮对口人，完成讲解。从形式上就让甲方觉得不够重视，陪跑是必然的\nIBM\n来的阵仗第二大，从售前，带队领导，到工程师代表一应俱全。准备全面，重点由工程师代表方案讲解发言\n讲述方法论比较成熟，包括ROI的模板分析方法，维度4象限（需求清晰度/业务重复度）划分，结合ROI分析。异常处理机制，显出功力\n\n重试\n邮件告警\n异常截图\n异常日志\n\n支持BP, AA两套方案，优推BP，也显出他们人员配置完备。\nQ：现有的模块库已经完备？反馈说已经有Q：拆分比较细的机器人时，如何建议部署量\n富璟科技\n基于AA业务咨询能力：数字化的劳动力，处理重复的工作（有点吹大--人工智能，100%准确率，投资回报精确计算）技术难点的识别上，显出整体人员的研发功力距离IBM有较大的差距（VBA操作Excel，处理邮件）但强调了排班的安排，倒是说的对，其余厂家没多强调团队的培养，确实重要，仅有这家提了\n深圳的单位，来了两个人，研发总监和一个开发，因为对比大厂没有优势，大概率陪跑角色，事实证明确实陪跑\n毕马威（KPMG）\n来的人就几个，阵仗不大，评审人反馈过往的合作也一直比较实在老实，但后来报价很机械（反向佐证？）\n德勤\n来的售前阵仗最大，从香港跑过来一批合伙人大佬，装束精致，给招标方一种非常高规格的感觉，大佬们不懂技术，但话讲的漂亮\n1000台机器人--UIPATH的应用，在日本的银行客户2018年的新版本支持一个并发license模型好像他们也是UIPATH的东亚区核心代理","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"Serverless简解","url":"/Serverless.html","content":"\n一句话Fancy概念\n将云看作一台计算机\n\nIAAS是硬件\n容器编排是操作系统\nServerless是应用的运行时\n\n\n理解这个运行时，你可以将其看作SaaS，也可以看作PaaS，BaaS（backend as a service）, 导致现在在往Faas方向在演进\n\nCloudNative\n充分利用云平台各种功能和服务所设计的应用程序（自建自研减少）\nServerless产品形态早已有之\n\nAmazon-S3（2006），即为serverless形态的存储服务，只需简单的API就可以实现海量数据可靠存储。用户毋需关心数据如何被分片存储到不同的服务器以实现负载均衡，也毋需考虑如何做到在服务器宕机或交换机故障时保证数据的高可靠和高可用\n\nS3是BaaS的体现\n\n2015概念加速\n自2015年Amazon正式商用Lambda后变得流行了，背后原因体现的是云产品体系一直在Serverless化\n\n对多数用户来说，最重要的是解决业务问题，若全托管的服务能带来更好的性能，更好的稳定性，更少的运维代价，why not？\n技术层面，serverless无特别难解的题，都是可攻克的。最难的还是心智教育，标准化和生态建设（技术严谨并非一蹴而就，如高级语言的市占率，软件工程的发展也是经过长时间的积累）\n与很多新兴技术一样，都经历了开发者幻想破灭的低谷。计算形态的变动对于开发者的习惯挑战较大，在工具链，编程模型，应用架构上，都需要开发者转换思路，不过这些问题都在不断被解决\n\nServerless与微服务的异同\n\n任何技术都有优劣，适合和不适合。例如微服务有很多优点，但要想落地好，需要在应用运行基础设施，工具链，可观测上有完善的配套支撑。\n\n微服务是一种架构概念，Serverless可看作是承载应用运行的基础设施\n\n松耦合，细粒度开发和发布边界，更敏捷的应用发布频度\n企业应用从单体架构到服务化，再到更细粒度的微服务化\n微服务构建应用，可运行在Serverless平台上，也可以运行在VM或容器平台上，二者概念上正交\n\nServerLess带来了什么不同\n\n结合云能力，弹性，轻量，端对端集成，与微服务很合拍\n实践推动微服务往一个更轻量的研发模式发展 – 应用函数化，按需加载 (FaaS)\n引领云原生下一个十年的发展潮流\n\nServerless四大特性\n\nNo Server Management（无需管理服务器）\nPay-for-value Service（按价值付费）\nContinuous Scaling（能自动伸缩）\nBuilt-in Fault Tolerance（内置高可用和容错能力）\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["云原生"]},{"title":"Tittytainment-奶头乐","url":"/Tittytainment.html","content":"\n奶头乐大家都知道了，网上一搜一大堆，此文仅仅是录下一套不那么复杂的体系化表达。\n奶头乐\n\n&quot;奶头乐&quot;理论（Tittytainment） 由2017年刚去世的美国战略大师布热津斯基【曾任吉米-卡特总统的国家安全顾问】在20多年前提出。\n\n资本主义天然会造成严重的贫富分化，而全球化进一步加速了全球范围内的贫富分化，这使得二八现象更加严重，20%的人掌握80%的资源，掌握人类社会各领域的话语权，而高达80%的人口会被&quot;边缘化&quot;。过去通过社保制度，工人持股等方式改良的资本主义制度也无法对抗广大底层民众的不满情绪，罢工，抗议，甚至革命会再次发生。\n解除边缘人不满情绪的办法只有一个，就是在他们嘴中塞一个“奶嘴”，让他们以为自己过得很充实，很幸福。\n\n萌发-人类清除计划背后\n1995年费尔蒙特饭店会议讨论全球化及如何引导人类走向21世纪等重大问题，与会者以“崭新的文明”，“后工业时代”等宣传术语把未来简化成两个概念：20比80，靠喂奶生活。\n具体意思是，仅靠全球20%的人（外加1%-2%的丰厚遗产继承人）就足以维持世界经济的繁荣，剩余80%将被边缘化，避免这80%的人的问题，提出两种解决方案，一是奶头乐，二是逐步设法用高技术手段消灭他们（近些年的生物战不了解是不是清除计划的一部分）。\n奶嘴的两种形式\n奶嘴的形式有两种：\n\n一种是发泄性娱乐，比如开放色情业，博彩业，鼓励暴力网络游戏，鼓动网络口水战；\n一种是满足性游戏，比如拍摄大量不切实际的肥皂剧和偶像剧，大量报道明星丑闻，播放很多虚假的真人秀等大众娱乐节目。\n\n把这些令人很轻松就可以沉迷其中的娱乐感官体验疯狂堆砌在边缘人面前，占据他们的业余时间，就算白天干活辛苦，收入微薄，受到剥削和不公平待遇，而且没有向上跃迁的阶层通道，他们也会在不知不觉中丧生独立思考的能力，这时，只要给他们一份能填饱肚子的工作，他们便会沉浸在“快乐”中。\n\n为何总有霸道总裁爱前台小妹这类节目给你看，因为穷人喜欢看，草根女主角才有时间看这种剧情，而这类节目受众里根本没霸道总裁。媒体的结果就是让基数最大的群体开心，话题越低越底层，共鸣就越多，收视率就越好。\n当前中国社会也进入娱乐至死的状态，人们对自己的处境又处在了百年前鲁迅批判的那种国民性上，麻木漠然：一个人走在街上，吐了一口痰就会有人上来看，两个，三个然后围成一群，最后轰然散去。这是中国旧社会人们的思维状态，习惯以“看客”的身份去对待周遭的世界，主体性丧失。当前社会也体现出主体性丧失的特点，或者说从未被完整构建过，毕竟当前时代沉渣泛起，从高效率的角度民可使由之，不可使知之。真正关切到每个人自身的社会议题总是被一带而过，而各路与自己毫不相干的人的家长里短总能频频冲上热榜。别人的瓜总是比自己的瓜吃起来要美味，人群是多么的像羊群。也有少部分清楚的人选择摆烂，摆出一幅犬儒的姿态，『社会病了，吃药的却是我们，不陪你们玩了』。\n游戏越反越多\n现今经常被家长抱怨的网络游戏，国家从来没有真正意义上想解决过，因为网络游戏本身就是国家的一套工具。\n也别全信游戏产业利益集团的说辞。什么“网游本身并不让人沉迷，沉迷的本质是家长关怀的缺位” 这种 政治正确的假话，让人沉迷的就是从业者设计的“好玩”，专业设局诱捕你大脑欣快感分泌。这跟反禁枪的人说“杀人的不是枪，是人”一样在玩逻辑诡辩。\n世界的真相就是：禁枪的地方就是比不禁枪的地方安全。\n游戏数据\n根据DFC Intelligence在2022年发布的《全球游戏用户市场概览》中，总结了全球范围内已有37亿游戏用户，按当年全球人口80亿的联合国数据看，已近一半的人在玩游戏。\n不过只有10%的玩家能称为核心玩家，这批用户大概3亿，是硬件驱动型用户，会为了玩游戏购买游戏主机，或配置高性能的电脑。\n相比之下，移动游戏的玩家群体庞大的多，更能代表全球玩家数量。那么，让只玩手机游戏的用户升级到更大屏幕的设备就是行业人士瞄准的重要机会，只是并不容易。\n游戏成瘾的原因和对策？\n玩游戏不动脑子？玩游戏可以躺平？很多游戏很费脑子也费力的。为啥孩子愿意动脑子而做数学题不动脑子呢？\n道理很简单，叫即时反馈，马上给你一个爽感快感。你通不过这一关不要紧的，再来重来再来重来，它永远都是鼓励你。你不会见过哪个游戏在里面骂你吧。\n学习考试就有反面的问题，学了几个月成绩没提升，老师批评你，家长批评你，开始制造各种焦虑，小孩脑子都坏了。当一个人持续做事做了半天没任何效果，周围都是在批评你的时候，你可能会喜欢这个东西么。\n长期提分提不了，孩子很容易厌学，所以要正视这个问题。另外一定要学会说话好听一点，要学会鼓励孩子让他看到自己的进步，哪怕分数没有进步，他的努力你是看见的，不是老师批评指责，否则他绝对是厌学。\n游戏这个事还是预防为主，立规矩为上，不要妥协。吸毒成瘾了你说该戒毒，好不好戒，你自己说呢。另外体育也是一种游戏，代替电子游戏也是一个选择。\n风潮变化\n\n\n奶头乐战略出来后，社会确实对不正统的通俗文化，低级无聊与摧毁心智的污染性文化变得十分宽容，商人政客等精英似乎也乐见其成了，或者说如获至宝。\n\n\n绝大多数平民也乐此不疲，追捧不已，就像那些深陷毒瘾的人对鸦片提供者往往感激得痛哭流涕一样，反而成为这一风潮最有力的推动者和捍卫者。\n\n\n社会稳定三大策略\n年轻人都负债，社会才会稳定。西方社会稳定最成功的三个手段：\n\n性自由\n成功学\n消费主义\n\n三个策略，年轻人只要中一个，就必须花费大把大把的银子，大概率会背负负债，努力工作。消费主义不消说，买房买车买奢侈品，贷款消费，媒体告诉你这都是刚需。要是三策略都击中你，你又是普通人，是得扛着比牛毛还多的负债奋力向前了。\n随着种花家越来越现代化，也同样学习到这些策略。有文章说有4亿老百姓身背大量负债，你信不信金融资本家正在琢磨的是把剩下的10亿也狠劲榨一榨，最好是榨干（不榨社会总产出也无法快速扩大）。\n结语\n\n\n提高他们的欲望，降低他们的收入，然后借钱给他们，让他们忙到停不下来，又不至于崩溃，制造娱乐和游戏用奶嘴安慰他们\n\n\n真要没人玩王者荣耀了，你出头只会更难。你有多强烈的延迟满足的反人性特质？奋斗是个慢跑，游戏马上享受不等一秒\n\n\n教育从来问题多多，从来没有得到根本的解决，因为教育不等于教育制度，教育是个体的事情，教育制度的根本目的是维系社会稳定\n\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"Yarn资源调度策略","url":"/Yarn%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5.html","content":"\n开宗明义\nYARN 资源调度器是直接从MR基础上修改而来，它提供了三种可用资源调度器，分别是\n\n\nFIFO Scheduler\n\n\nYahoo!的Capacity Scheduler\n\n\nFackbook 的 Fair Scheduler\n\n\n原理和细节基本上与MR的三种调度器一致。都是层级队列方式组织资源的\n\n如此这般，符合公司或部门组织架构，有利于资源在不同资源间分配和共享，进而提高集群资源利用率\n\n调度器详解\n\nFIFO Scheduler\nHadoop设计之初提供的一个最简单的调度机制： 即先来先服务。所有应用程序被统一提交到一个队里中，Hadoop按照提交顺序依次运行这些作业。只有等先来的应用程序资源满足后，再开始为下一个应用程序进行调度运行和分配资源。\n优点：原理和实现简单，也不需要任何单独的配置\n缺点：\n\n无法提供QoS，只能对所有的任务按照同一优先级处理\n无法适应多租户资源管理。先来的大应用程序把集群资源占满，导致其他用户的程序无法得到及时执行\n应用程序并发运行程度低\n\nCapacity Scheduler\nYahoo!开发的多用户调度器，以队列为单位划分资源，配置文件为conf/capacity-scheduler.xml\n\n每个队列可设定一定比例的资源最低保证和使用上限\n每个用户也可设置一定的资源使用上限，以防资源滥用\n支持资源共享，将队列剩余资源共享给其他队列使用\n\n容量保证\n管理员为每个队列设置资源最低保证（capacity）和资源使用上限（maximum-capacity，默认100%）\n所有提交到该队列的应用程序共享这个队列中的资源\n弹性调度\n队列中的资源有剩余或者空闲，可以暂时共享给那些需要资源的队列+非强制回收。提高系统资源利用率。（当队列有执行空间）\n多租户管理\n支持多用户共享集群资源和多应用程序同时运行。且可对每个用户可使用资源量（user-limit-factor）设置上限\n安全隔离\n每个队列设置严格的ACL列表（acl_submit_applications），用以限制可以用户或者用户组可以在该队列提交应用程序，实现计算资源隔离\nFair Scheduler\nFacebook开发的多用户调度器，公平不仅可以在队列中的应用体现，也可以在多个队列之间工作。\n举个栗子\n两个用户A和B，各拥有一个队列，都设置容量最小为集群的一半，最大为全部集群资源。当A启动一个job而B没有任务时，A会获得全部集群资源；当B启动一个job后，A的job会继续运行，不过一会儿之后两个任务会各自获得一半的集群资源。\n此时B再启动第二个job并且其它job还在运行，则它将会和B的第一个job共享B这个队列的资源，也就是B的两个job会用于四分之一的集群资源。而A的job仍然用于集群一半的资源，结果就是资源最终在两个用户之间平等的共享。\n与Capacity Scheduler不同之处\n支持资源抢占\n队列空闲资源被共享给其他队列后，如果再提交用户程序，需要计算资源，调度器需要为它回收资源。\n为了尽可能降低不必要的计算浪费，调度器采用了先等待再强制回收的策略。如果等待一段时间后尚有未归还的资源，则会进行资源抢占：从超额使用资源的队列中杀死一部分任务，进而释放资源。\n自定义负载均衡\n在Fair Scheduler尽可能把任务均匀分配到各个节点之外，你也可以根据自己的需求设计负载均衡机制\n资源公平共享\nFair策略是一种基于最大最小公平算法（内存资源使用率比率）实现的资源多路复用方式，默认情况下，每个队列内部采用该方式分配资源。\n有一个权重属性（这个权重就是对公平的定义），并把这个属性作为公平调度的依据。当调度器分配集群40:60资源给两个队列A和B时便视作公平（40和60分别替换成2和3，效果也是一样的）。如果队列没有设置权重则会被平均分配。\n与此同时，每个队列可单独设置调度策略（FIFO、Fair或DRF）\n\n默认调度算法的考量因子是memory，但是也可以也可以设置DRF(Dominant Resource Fairness)，会考虑mem和vcore的资源\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"万元美金时代","url":"/%E4%B8%87%E5%85%83%E7%BE%8E%E9%87%91%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3.html","content":"\nGDP，衡量的是一个国家的经济总量；人均GDP评价的是一个国家的富裕程度。在经济学界，人们更多地拿人均GDP作为划分经济发展阶段的重要指标，当然它局限性很明显，过于简单，未体现收入分配差异。两个国家的人均 GDP 可能相似，但因为分配方式的不同，实际收入可能差距甚大。\n\n从 1970 年开始，人均 GDP 的槛经常被提起，一开始是 3000 美元，后来韩国、台湾超过 5000 美元，中国把目标定在了 10000 美元。\n\n现今到了2w美元，可等于初等发达国家，[2.5~4)可称为中等发达国家（地区）。在2020年北上的人均GDP已经2.4w和2.3w美金，可称中等发达地区水平。\n\n其实国内最高的两位城市代表分别是克拉玛依和鄂尔多斯（能源开采和加工，附加值高用工要求不高，人口规模也不大），他们比北上更高，无锡也比北京高。人均GDP与发达程度的关联性偏小，人均是用总人口计算的，所以老龄化程度影响很大，老人占比越高，人均GDP越低，用就业人口计算看上去更合理，但也不合情理\n\n在1978年美国人均GDP超过1w美元的时候，我国人均GDP差不多是150美元，差距非常明显。2003年中国人均GDP超过1000美元。消费结构向发展型、享受型升级，过去的奢侈品将转化为居民的必需品。2003年以来，汽车等消费热点的日益形成，只不过是这一变化的序幕。消费结构的升级，带动的将是投资结构和生产结构的变化。住房、汽车、电子通信等高成长产业群，成为产业升级和经济增长的主要动力。\n万元美金的界限感\n一些国家和地区在人均 GDP 超过 10000 美元时社会形态发生了或大、或小的变化，当然对于身处期间的人来说，跃过一个数字并没什么可见的影响。工作在继续、生活在继续、问题也在继续。受通货膨胀影响，其实按今天的币值计算，这个门槛都在 10000 美元左右。\n\n各国 GDP 数值来自世界银行和经济史学家 Angus Maddison 的统计数据，再加以通胀换算[1]\n\n2019年，按官方统计数字，中国人均GDP跨国万元美金关口。\n\n\n美国第一次人均 GDP 达到 10000 美元发生在 1913 年，当时纽约华尔街对伦敦国际股票市场的撼动已然显现，女性上街游行，争取投票权。人们开始在报纸上玩填字游戏，消费主义的气氛浓厚，通过邮购手册，西尔斯把产品卖到全国各地，创造了标准化的美国消费，也涵括了农村的消费者。和后来的郊区化不同，这一时期美国人口的流动是朝向城市的。好莱坞诞生，摩天大楼天际线在不断刷新，制造业中也在刷新着效率。\n\n\n\n1933年，英国。1920 年代，电动吸尘器、洗衣机、电热炉都已经出现。但全球只有在美国，普通人才能用得起电——到 1925 年，一半美国家庭用上了电，当时英国没有成规模的电力公司，5 个灯泡一天就要烧掉普通人一个月的工资，所以只有6%。英国国家电网1933年建成，连接122座发电站，到1938 年，已经有 900 万户英国家庭用上了电\n\n\n1959年，德国。德国的经济极速增长，被认为是一个经济奇迹（Wirtschaftswunder）。到 1959 年，德国人均 GDP 首次超过 10000 美元（以 2018 年币值计算），出口商品首次超过英国、达到法国两倍。当年，一级方程式大奖赛在西柏林举办。西柏林被东德包围，进出要靠飞机，当地赛队没钱频繁飞去西边参加比赛，更多是组织赛事邀请各国运动员参加。德国人热爱赛车，也将整个国家的高速公路变成赛道。当年巴伐利亚发动机厂被匡特家族控股，筹备造车，作为纳粹金主之一战后很长一段时间BMW不允许生产汽车，59年股东大会被提议并入奔驰，看似已无出路。当年博朗TP1 便携式收音机也被设计出来，自然而不多余。\n\n\n1962，日本，身处举办1964奥运会的准备期，之前比埃菲尔铁塔更高的东京塔已经建成，还在建新干线，迎接1970 年大阪世界博览会。210km/h 的时速是 1963 年世界的最高水准。丰田造出自己的“大众车”。神龛佛坛本来的位置被电视机取代，《铁臂阿童木》电视动画出现，创下了全日本平均 30% 的收视率，开始击退进口节目。即食包装咖喱开始出现，进一步解放主妇。不按通胀平价计算美国人均GDP从1w到2w，用了9年，日本仅花了6年，可见其当时有多猛。\n\n\n1970年，苏联，太空竞赛才发了两个月球探测器，有一个还是首个遥控月球车。探测器也着陆在了金星表面\n\n\n1976年，香港，时髦的打扮、快餐文化、娱乐业和自我身份的焦虑在那几年特别流行，除了财富增长，十岁到十九岁的组别在香港人口中最多也是因素，使得整个香港由青少年文化主导。电影院此时被“感官电影”占领，暴力和艳情片最具票房号召力。其余的是讲究道义、气节的武侠片。此时香港已经开了 4 家麦当劳，1977 年，麦当劳在香港总计卖出了超过 100 万个汉堡。从港岛到九龙，需要搭乘渡海小轮和电船，码头旁总是停满接驳车。海底隧道在 1972 年开通，稍稍缓和了香港的交通。1970 年代，港岛市中心每 25 秒就有一班叮叮车，香港地铁在 1975 年 11 月动工，以应对人口暴增和交通的需要。也开始筹备更多公屋。\n\n\n1987年，台湾。7.15日，台湾正式解除延续 38 年又 56 天的戒严。1987 年年底，台湾解除了对大陆的“三不”禁令，并解除外汇管制，允许企业对外投资。次年，郭台铭从山西晋城老家返程时，途径深圳，向来擅长和本地官员打交道的郭台铭打算在深圳宝安区的西乡建工厂，这里的平均工人工资只有 223 元。在台湾，1987 年电子零组件制造业的职工平均月收入是 14094 新台币。人力成本上涨得厉害，制造业转移不可避免。在将工厂搬到大陆之前，泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印尼已经成为劳动力的重要来源。罗大佑去了香港。过去几年，罗大佑在台湾“和审查制度周旋久矣，苦矣”。1/6的歌送审不过，每张唱片平均有两首歌送审不过。\n\n\n2004，巴西。国家更富，个人交税更多了，巴西经济从国家和从个人角度看，是完全不同的两个东西。巴西人要把每年 42% 的薪水交给政府，买烟的话交 72%、买啤酒交 56%、买车交 44%，由于税率过高，按咨询机构麦肯锡的说法，逃税是巴西的一种生活方式。低效也体现在其它地方，2004 年巴西企业创建需要 15 道程序，平均需要耗时 152 天。比较而言，同期美国只需要 5 道程序，耗时 4 天；韩国 12 道程序，耗时 33 天；同一地区的智利也不过是 10 道程序和 28 天。在巴西几乎看不到奔驰、宝马、奥迪这些豪华汽车品牌。由于严格的贸易保护政策，进口车会被课以重税。收入分配的不平衡直接体现在巴西人的生活感受上。2004 年大概 33% 的巴西人每天生活费不到 2 美元，约有 45％ 的人营养不良。\n\n\n万元美金世代人群趋势\n\n中国2019年进入，从绝对数值上美国1978年进入\n\n\n中产阶层物质需求基本满足，开始追求自我实现和发展\n\n生存性消费（衣食住行）转向发展性消费（教育，医保，美容，旅游）\n\n\n颜值经济（爱美）\n\n美容美发美甲美牙\n健身\n\n\n老龄化（怕死）：各种医疗护理类缺口巨大，包括幼托\n\n普通人逆袭的机会\n甚至于普通毕业生也能进三甲医院的康复科\n\n\n孤独\n\n心理咨询\n宠物医生\n\n\n\n城市化趋势\n\n人均GDP和城市化率还将继续上升\n北上广深经济密度（每平方公里的产值）离世界标杆还很有差距，由人口规模支撑\n\n四大一线2-3亿美金，新加坡首尔5亿，东京7亿，纽约10亿\n\n\n\n城市马太\n磁铁城市（火焰）\n\n网络人口：移动手机总数\n更佳解释用水用电生活垃圾指标\n\n\n北上广深\n成都：网络人口比常住人口多1000w\n杭州\n东南沿海\n长三角地区\n\n抽离城市（海水）\n\n天津\n\n第二产业比重43%，没有支柱服务业\n用脚投票去服务业更发达，生产效率更高的周边火焰之城\n\n\n中部\n苏北\n鲁南\n西部地区\n\n城市的胜利\n\n规模、规模、规模：财富的&quot;规模溢价&quot;\n北上广深以全国1/14人口，吸纳全国餐饮1/4的就业\n\n四城餐饮门店11w家，承载700w人就业（全国3000w），占了全国餐饮就业人口23%\n\n\n大城企业外溢\n\n总部和生产基地分离\n制造业外迁\n服务业分工更细化\n\n\n接入大城市规模的小城镇\n\n房产的拐角\n\n劳动是财富之父，土地是财富之母\n\n投资属性\n\n国家地区和城市的股票\n长期保存的价值存储工具\n\n身价3000w美元的高净值家庭，40%配置在房产上。然后才是股票债券类\n长周期看，(140年间16个发达国家的数据)房产回报率比股票高2个百分点（50%）\n\n股票平均回报4.6%\n房产6.6%\n\n\n\n\n\n增长与调控\n房价增速=经济增速+通胀速度+城市化速度\n\n过去20年年增速是13.5%=经济增速9.5%+通胀2.5%+城市化1.5%\n\n调控的本质\n\n财富差距问题\n不是降房价，而是降增速\n\n让没买的人有机会买，分享经济增长和城市化过程中的财富增值\n\n\n\n拐角后时代\n拐角：快速城市化的结束，整体快速上涨结束\n租金即王道\n寻找租金增速上升最快的房产\n核心区域&quot;老破小&quot;好过远郊大别墅\n不同收入阶段，”舒适“的定义不同\n从温度舒适角度考虑，南方比北方好\n收入提高，时间越来越贵\n\n城市中心\n郊区地铁站旁\n无地铁无价值\n\n海景房的问题\n\n既不稀缺也不珍贵\n\n\n交通不便\n生活配套不完善\n教育和医疗资源缺乏\n\n财富”代际转移“需求：学位房\n阶层育儿方式的扎心差异\n\n贫困和工薪阶层倾向于给孩子更多自主权\n中产和富豪阶层对子女成长更加雄心，投入物质和时间更多\n\n在恐惧中贪婪\n通胀\n反映实际增速与潜在增速的关系：通胀水平高则目前增速高于潜在增速，反之低于\n高低不明确\n\nCPI高（膨胀）\nPPI低（紧缩）\n\n\n剔除食品和能源波动大的元素后，中国核心CPI数据1.5%（警戒线2%），不严重甚至偏低\n\n全球贸易特征\n\n全球巨大产业链\n中间品（零部件，原材料）占70%\n制成品30%\n\nG2摩擦\n###主要摩擦点\n\n人民币升值（金融）\n保护知识产权（科技）\n\n美国的核心竞争力\n科学技术\n\n知识产权保护\n技术转让\n\n货币金融\n\n金融服务\n汇率\n\n全球领导地位\n\n争端解决机制\n扩大贸易合作\n\n\n美国主要靠进口商品，商品贸易方面与中国并无冲突。贸易摩擦在同意中国加入WTO那天就结束了\n\nG2产业差异\n\n美：80%服务业\n中\n\n制造业占比较大\n服务业52%\n\n\n\n\n剔除服务的商品贸易总额，中国稍高一些\n\n幸福的烦恼\n消费时代降临\n\n服务业经济元年（2013）\n服务业（46.9%）首超第二产业（44.2%），成为支柱产业\n2018年已达52%\n大城市接力工业化，成为经济主发动机\n\n改开驱动力\n改革开放40年以快速工业化为基本驱动力，造成工业化超前，城市化滞后\n经济结构的本源性特征\n\n工业化太快，不平衡，不协调，不可持续\n\n唯一要担心是创新的不足\n\n有35项核心技术还待突破\n\n供给侧改革\n\n长期看供给，短期看需求，需求看政策\n长期没有其它办法，只能靠日积月累的技术进步，也是供给侧改革的缘由\n\n参考\n1.搜狐 人均GDP到一万美元时都发生了什么 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"三则面试的所录所想","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E5%88%99%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E7%9A%84%E6%89%80%E5%BD%95%E6%89%80%E6%83%B3.html","content":"\n这篇文章来自于19年的三则招聘，在跟被面试者对谈过程中，通过对方的口填补一些空白信息，或者交换印证一些看法，是一个有趣有益的体验。\nCase 1\n一个 鹅厂–&gt;猫厂–&gt;鹅厂 的候选人，心理不舒服想继续出来。鹅厂人出来的大概率原因，项目不满意。因为在给力的项目中，成就感和收入回报是让你不舍得走的，或者脱离了这个项目，你根本没有能力获取与之对应的价值，正所谓作为一个螺丝钉，离了操作平台没啥大作用。\n做专做扎实，做领域（行业）专家\n\n还是一个蛮理想的候选人，面谈期间，他的大意是想在一个领域做专做扎实，沉淀下来，结合技术方向做领域（行业）专家。这句话的确是对的，因为基础技术领域的执牛耳者太少，多数人并不适合走这条路，能走这条路的人其实起跑很早，外加天赋异禀。\n当他二进宫去鹅厂云部门时，痛苦于项目管理不合理，每个人并行几个项目，搞得人心累。出于追赶状态下，动作变形，手上还是拖拉机时，对外承诺已经是法拉利了，这是他口中的鹅厂的最大问题管理混乱，从这几年鹅厂的增增日上，反推出来，他应该是掉进一个不太好的组里去了，组里的领头人水平不行。\n反之，他感慨猫厂底层中台的支撑能力是非常强大的，鹅厂这边很多组件经常暴露问题，例如调度系统出问题，导致报表和分析一天都没出来。结合上面的法拉利论，这种情况是一定程度的现实，鹅厂的不少系统设计上有些糙的，外加先上线再优化的传统，出毛病自然而然。这并不需要一杆子打死，任何做系统，尤其是摊饼摊的太大的系统，一定早期问题很多，猫厂的系统起步更早，理应更加稳定\n中台如何考核\n旋而问之提出中台理念的猫厂，中台如何考核？答之如阿里云允许你花精力做探索性工作，如支持你成为某些开源项目的贡献者，作为绩效的一部分。\n内部中台，多少业务接入了，服务数据量如何。\n总而言之一句话，透明，通过技术尊重达成人员能力发展的人企平衡，相信我，公司有一千个招能约束你/考核你不是肆意摸鱼。\n猫厂还有哪些值得回味的点\n何为敏捷\n敏捷=story拆分合理，串行执行。以项目制组织人员，动态调动兵力，集中攻克问题（项目）\n总结抽象，拔高认知\n写周报，强调关注对业务整体的提升有什么帮助。逍遥子是财务出身，对数字非常敏感，反向影响每周的报表要做分析\n猫厂和菊花厂，是现在市场上溢价能力比较高的两家，因为大家都想学他们，两家都是组织变革的代表，不断的折腾，不断的不让组织稳定。学习者以期打造同样的组织成功来促成业务成功。为什么要请他们念经？因为视野认识在，类比于搞市场，得把钱交给花过大钱的人。\nCase 2\n大数据变现的渠道有哪些\n\n风控\n推荐 – 广告也是推荐的应用\n\n来自于一个长期搞大数据的候选人，简单的两句有道理给大家看看\n个性特征+动机+价值观 = 天赋\n实际候选人有缺陷，在与合作者沟通和影响力引领上，是低于同龄人，一个人在特定的年龄段，必须完成跟大家相似的里程碑。如果没有，要么强，要么有问题。所以考察时必须要全面。\n\n个性特征+动机+价值观 = 天赋，你不要去尝试改变或影响，所以关注考察基本面非常重要\n越放松越真实\n在放松的状态下，问过去的工作职责，印象最深积累最多的排在前面，看与企业要求是否匹配。\nCase 3\n一则面试反例\n博士读的计算机，2年工作经验，去腾讯之前在中兴还有些深度，做自研版本的mysql数据库，做智能电网的项目。跑去腾讯做微黄金的cgi开发，一些简单的设计。这类基础的开发工作，与其求学履历不对等匹配，个人觉得实在是浪费，不知道其个人为什么有这样的安排。\n如果你想在较不擅长的取得成功，那你们的生活可能会过得一团糟，持续经营优势才是明智之选。这句话强调的是务实之选，并不是说让大家故步自封。\n保持好奇心无可厚非，且相当值得，只是要付出努力\n\n建立立体化的思维模式/体系非常有必要\n并且你拥有的基本知识越多，需要吸取的新知识就越少\n\n痕迹体现经历，观点体现价值观\n判断一个人的成就动机：借助对第三者的评价（身边哪些人混的好），来获取他内心的成就动机。类似于其它标准的体察，同样可通过其对其它事件的评价，而不是直接问。\n\n成就动机跨越价值观定型到挂掉这么一个长周期，分为六类：权、钱、术、名、地位、闲\n\n判断一个人的职业动机：你认为最成功的三个人。此句语义上与混的好不好有差别，混得好不好易生活工作一起谈，更适合成就动机。\n\n职业动机跨度进入职场—&gt;退休这段周期，分为四类：权力，影响，亲和，成就\n\n成就动机和职业动机有一定的映射关系，成就动机里的地位对应影响动机，好名声对应亲和动机，闲这类职业动机不高，钱和术都映射为成就动机，权力不必多说，职业动机也是权力。\n后记\n代际变化整体趋势要求工作有趣化，只有两种途径\n\n氛围有趣化（容易做，但不持久）\n工作内容有趣化（难，持久，但员工兴趣感知不同）\n\n最顶级的公司，肯定两者都不能缺了。追其本质，团队管理者还是在难的一条路上多下功夫。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["访谈"]},{"title":"三国人物年龄与杂记","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\n三国人物出场\n30后\n陶谦(132-194,62岁)大刘备29岁，属于献帝爷爷同一年出生的人，跟董卓(139-192,53岁)，益州刘焉（约135-194,约59岁）他们是一代人\n40后\n刘表(142-208,66岁)都要更小十岁，但也比曹操大13岁，袁绍（146-202，56岁）大曹操9岁。这些都属于上一茬的。\n\n袁绍176-182年守孝6年，在守孝之前刚被委任濮阳县长（不满万户）不久。守孝有目的的避开了宦官强盛时的“党锢之祸”\n\n华佗（145-208,63岁），其「因撒谎和不服征召罪」被曹操冲动「以为华佗可治好他的病却故意不治断根，要挟自抬身价」所杀，三国志里也却确实记载其「以医见业，意常自悔」，「恃能厌食事（讨厌为吃饭而受人役使）」。其医书《青囊书》狱吏不敢接，华佗直接付之一炬了，可惜。华曹双方都有点问题，但曹阿瞒确实过于冲动了，虽然华佗死后阿瞒又活了 12 年，及后爱子曹冲（活了 12 岁）病困，阿瞒叹曰：“吾悔杀华佗！令此儿强死也&quot;。\n50后\n主角多是15x年后登场\n袁术（150-199,49岁）大曹操5岁；曹操(155-220，65岁) 与孙坚同岁，阿瞒应该是死于脑肿瘤，这在当时的确治不好；\n吕布的年龄\n\n一众耳熟能详的人物，除了投在/成了帝王家，否则在史书上很多都没有清晰的生卒年记载，吕布如此，董卓如此，袁绍如此，赵云如此，士族大家尚且如此，更别说百姓家。史有不足，但今人仍愿探佚~\n\n吕布(15x-199)，今包头人，应该是汉匈混血，吕布唤备弟，大家都认为其大于刘备。黄巾之乱(184)年在丁原手下做主簿，古人二十弱冠，被丁原识中肯定在20~30之间。188年丁原接替在与胡人的战争中死亡的并州刺史张仪懿继任其职务，第二年就被被噶了，可能在丁原手下被画了多年大饼，年龄不小了，才禁不住董卓的诱惑杀了自己知遇之人。\n但网络上一说吕布生于151年，还大曹操4岁，我深入琢磨认为也不太可靠。吕布手刃董卓（192）后，还与郭汜单挑，后逃出长安带着几百骑兵到处投靠，期间还在袁绍处冲杀山贼叛乱，如果生于151年，那时就42岁开外了，虽生猛但在古人年龄也算不惑之际了。另外张辽他们同属并州兵出身随丁原，后跟吕布，他俩应有一定的年岁差距，但不至于差18岁一代人这么多。\n自194年，吕布已成汉世豪强，曹攻吕，正史未见二人年龄差之类的对话或口气出现。更合适的推测是吕布略小于曹操，156年或许是一个靠谱的值。那么其亡于43岁，在丁原手下做主簿时28岁，189年拜中郎将时33岁。\n\n历史的特性之一，是它的“不可深考性”。没有一件历史的事实，曾经留下全部的史料。然而这门历史学问，虽则有捕风捉影之嫌，却不可废。先民过去的经验，我们总不能不参考，总不能不研究，尽量谨严之。\n\n60后\n曹操大 关羽(160-220，60岁) 5岁，大 刘备(161-223，62岁) 6岁。\n\n🔔 注意\n关羽实际大刘备1岁，这点估计触犯了大家的常识\n\n张飞（167-221，54岁）小刘备6岁，推测赵云小张飞1岁（168-229，61岁）\n\n黄忠年龄\n《三国志-费诗传》羽闻黄忠为后将军，羽怒曰：“大丈夫终不与老兵同列！”，此时关羽已经59岁(独领荆州5年)，黄忠在《三国志》中得到的描写也是“常先登陷阵（第一个登顶城楼，拿下城池）,勇毅冠三军”，不会是一个比关羽更老的人做的。\n\n作战的风格和张辽相近，张辽远征乌桓的时候也是靠着刚勇和肉搏死战拿下了胜利，而黄忠同样是好短兵相接，张辽（169）年生人，已经接近60年代末\n斩杀一直缺乏战功的“白地将军”夏侯渊，也被羽认为没有足够的分量，也是因为黄忠早年无甚显赫战功。\n\n按照黄忠的出道时间，192年刘表入荆州时，黄忠此时被任命为中郎将，和刘表的侄子刘磐一起在长沙驻守。普遍将领在三十多岁左右出任这一职位（中郎将）。黄忠的年龄处在160年代，较为合理。年龄肯定是关羽更大，只是黄忠与飞，云二位谁更大，没有史料支撑。\n\n黄忠在长沙和太史慈的多次交手，推断黄忠和太史慈(166)的年龄差不多，不至于年轻好多跳入70后去\n黄忠在封后将军后第二年就去世了（按上面的推测54岁），不似三国演义里为了英雄人物形象丰满，还要创作到关羽死之后的夷陵之战中。\n\n70后\n孙策（175-200）与周瑜（175-210，35岁）同岁，比其弟大7岁，可惜江东小霸王走的早，25岁就见他爹去了。\n周瑜大诸葛亮6岁，鲁肃（172-217，45岁）大周瑜3岁，司马懿（179-251，72岁）大诸葛亮2岁\n马超(176)小周瑜1岁，算是蜀汉的中生代将军，本可能支撑到北伐阶段，可惜死的早（46岁）\n80后\n刘备大 诸葛亮(181-234，53岁) 20岁，长 孙权(182-252，70岁) 21岁。\n汉献帝(181-234) 与诸葛一般年纪，活得年岁也一样大，当山阳公当了14 年。\n陆逊（183-245，62岁）虽然出场晚，实际年龄只比孙权小1岁，也就比周瑜小8岁而已。\n\n📌三顾茅庐诸葛出山时27岁\n\n魏延年龄\n\n魏延以刘备部曲（私人招募武装）的身份随先主入蜀（211），由于其是义阳（按西晋时郡属为当前南阳桐柏县）人，在荆州时期招募，当大头兵跟随刘备入川，应该不超过30岁。此时诸葛已经30整了。故理论上比诸葛亮还要年轻几岁，其也算是刘备作为黄埔军校校长，培养的第一期嫡系门生。\n\n曹丕（187-226，39岁）年生，在自己33岁时篡汉（逼献帝禅让，献帝当时39，不过献帝退休待遇还不错）\n90后\n曹植192年生，41岁时忧郁病逝，比其哥哥还长寿些\n邓艾（197-264，67岁），偷渡阴平（263）神兵天降（66岁）绕道剑阁关姜维身后（大姜维5岁），偷袭成都，蜀国投降\n00后\n姜维(202-264,62岁) 小诸葛亮21岁\n刘备生刘禅（207）时已经46岁了，刘禅的年龄都没曹操孙子大，还比姜维小5岁，可在位时间长啊，41年，享年64岁，比一众人君都长。\n10后\n司马昭(211-265，54岁) 小刘禅4岁\n20后\n邓艾钟会灭蜀，钟会（225-264,39岁）比邓艾小28岁，也小姜维23岁\n30后\n司马炎(236~290,54岁)，266年30岁时代魏建晋，开启司马家的昏聩王朝\n黄巾之乱\n黄天当立立不住\n黄金之乱开始于汉灵帝光和7年（184年），185年就剩零星的冲突了，对于三国历史的意义其实有点像RPG游戏中出了新手村后面对的第一个BOSS一样，远不能跟唐末的黄巢之乱和清末的太平天国起义相比。\n\n爆发于公元184年的2月份，原本定的起义时间是3月，但是因为起义内部的叛徒济南人唐周告密，所以起义提前了1个月。看出来多半是没有彻底准备好就被迫起事，到指挥者张角兄弟的仅存者张宝被斩杀是在同一年的11月，前后持续了不到一年时间。\n\n记载中完全看不到黄巾军有任何建立成型政治体系的能力，汉末三国历史，没有一个有所作为或是堪称一流的人才出身于黄巾势力，基本上决定了黄巾之乱不具备建立起与东汉王朝相抗衡的有效政权的能力。\n张角虽是太平道的领袖，却只在冀州转战，没有为其他军团作调控，没有同一目标，只是占地死守或四处抢劫。加上当友军有难时，各军都不会相救，官军利用此缺点予以各个击破。\n为了有效平定叛乱，朝廷对暴动频发和集中的刺史监察区改置州牧，延缓了黄巾之乱对全国的蔓延，起到了减缓东汉结束的作用。董卓掌权后，地方手握重兵的刺史和太守集体反叛中央朝廷，为东汉晚期军阀鏖战揭开序幕。\n黄巾时几路主角年龄\n袁绍当时38岁，守孝结束隐居洛阳并未任职，直到黄巾后184年朝廷取消党禁，大赦天下党人，才应大将军何进的辟召。\n曹操29岁，有积极参加镇压黄巾起义。\n刘备23岁，也开始投身讨黄巾，可参见昭烈帝生平。\n此时孙权是一个2岁的小宝宝。\n赤壁三分年龄考\n曹\n赤壁之战曹操已经53了，张颌42，张辽39岁，司马懿29\n刘\n刘备47，关48，张飞41，赵云小张飞一岁40，诸葛27。\n孙\n孙权26，鲁肃36岁，周瑜33，陆逊25。\n结合三国演义+裴松之注《云别传》解读赵云\n\n赵云的战迹没有关张那样耀眼，但他一生追寻仁主并坚守初心到最后，一生不争不抢，不管军功大小，都一往无前\n罗贯中也算是非常欣赏赵云，所以在演义里给赵云加了很多高光时刻。下文与史书不矛盾，但正史传记中对赵云记载并不详细，描述过于细节的地方则是根据三国演义的发挥，如早期的心理活动，与刘备的生动互动。\n\n赵云早期是常山郡民团团长，却也是常山郡领导干部最头疼的人。养，没钱，不养怕其闹事。故推荐其去投奔公孙瓒，当时公孙和袁绍正在争冀州，袁绍名气更大，距离也更近，为何为公孙转身？其实公孙瓒对此事也费解，赵云给出的解释是：天下大乱，不知谁是明主，百姓有倒悬之危，常山人经过讨论，决定追寻能实施仁政的地方。身为冀州人投奔幽州人公孙瓒，是因为他认为袁绍是乱贼，公孙是维护大汉统治，所以选择了公孙。赵云为了心中的道德，舍近求远，选择了公孙瓒，但热脸贴了冷屁股。天下大乱，人如蝼蚁，谈道德，不是伪君子就是幼稚鬼，所以一直不得重用。但人生充满意外和惊喜，刘备也来同窗公孙瓒这里求职。为了对抗袁绍，公孙瓒派赵云随军出征，做刘备的骑兵连长。刘赵二人对仁德的理念不谋而合，建立了最初的革命友谊。\n此时刘备还是打工仔，没能力也万万不能挖公孙同学的墙角。赵云和刘备说：终不背德也，这是其一生的座右铭。身为公孙瓒的部下，虽与刘备互相欣赏，但公孙瓒败亡前，始终也未背弃公孙瓒而南下投刘。\n后来看到公孙瓒趋向残暴，且闭城自守而自取死路，也没有接受袁绍的招降，因兄长去世而回家奔丧，避回乡里，一避就是六年。这六年中刘备的人生如同过山车，从小小别部司马到豫州刺史，徐州牧，直到左将军。公元200年，衣带诏事件爆发，刘备从曹操处出逃，投奔袁绍，赵云主动来到邺城，多年后相见，二人同床而卧四晚，讲述彼此的过往，回忆过去的峥嵘，展望理想的未来，灵魂和理想的交织与碰撞，从此赵云成了刘备最坚实的战友。\n后来赵云成功保护刘备投奔刘表，博望坡之战赵云生擒敌将夏侯兰，其是赵云的发小，但他丝毫不徇私，做到公私分明。刘备也给面子，没杀夏侯兰还让其做了军官。曹操亲自攻打刘表，刘备不敌不战而走，路过襄阳，百姓自发跟随刘备，刘备没有让赵云失望，放弃快速逃命机会携民渡江。导致行军缓慢，虎豹骑追到当阳长板桥，刘备妻小在混乱中走散，刘备年近五十，儿子当然金贵。赵云能在兵乱中帮刘备保住家眷，非同小可。长坂坡之战后，刘备就任赵云为牙门将军，此称号是刘备的为赵云在三国期间首创的，牙门顾名思义，就是守门的牙齿，刘备有两颗，一颗赵云，一颗魏延，后来吴国也学刘备设立，但没人配担任。\n赤壁之战后，赵云平江南，升为偏将军，领桂阳太守。等刘备迎娶孙夫人后，孙夫人手下横行霸道，刘备知道后特命赵云掌管内事，也就是家事。下属参与领导家事处理不好就会里外不是人，且孙刘是政治联姻，事情更复杂一些，往大了说是外交事务，这说明赵云在刘备眼中有着寻常武将不具备的细腻谨慎。长期跟随在刘备诸葛亮身边，所以赵云很少有单独作战的一面，因此战迹不及其它武将。单独带兵作战，史书有两次记载。一次是刘备打益州，走水路，协同刘备完成对刘璋的包围，刘备入主成都之后，任命赵云为翊($y\\grave{i}$)军将军，又是独创，有起飞又有辅佐之意。\n刘备为了表彰属下，计划把成都的房产和城外的庄园分封，赵云却站出来反对：国贼未除，还不是享乐的时候。且益州百姓刚遭遇战祸，应将田宅房产归百姓，发展经济，安居乐业，然后使他们服兵役，纳户税，收取民心。赵云还和20年前一模一样，历经风雨仍不忘初心。\n夷陵之战时，赵云劝谏无效，任命兵督江州，夷陵兵败后，赵云兵至永安，在刘备人生末尾，护刘备周全，刘备临终前，升任赵云为中护军，征南将军，封永昌亭侯，中护军这个位置很重要，是一个掌握军中实权的位置，就是希望他帮助刘禅看住兵权，毕竟这个世界谁背叛刘禅，将刘禅从尸山血海中带出来的赵云也不会。他不需要赵云冲锋陷阵，要的就是他好好活着，等他若不在了有一天可以帮他照顾儿子。\n赵云参加第一次北伐，也是他第二次独立带兵作战，奉命兵出箕($j\\bar{i}$)谷，牵制曹真率领的魏军主力，诸葛亮趁机兵出岐山。敌强我弱，赵云从容指挥，街亭之失负责断后，损失极小，次年赵云去世，他救的刘禅也没忘了他，谥赵云为顺平侯，是为全蜀汉有谥号的12人之一。\n铜雀春深锁二乔？\n\n东汉大儒有云：“天子 有三台：灵台，以观天文；时台，以观四时，施化；囿 台，以观鸟兽鱼鳖。诸侯卑，不得观天文，无灵台；但 有时台、囿台也。”\n\n铜雀台开建于建安15年冬（210）， 历时1年多，建安17年春建成(212)，算是作为“武平 县侯”曹操的一种僭越试探，打破了列侯“不立宫室”的规定。\n（213）提升为魏公后再建金虎台，冰井台二台，算是赤裸裸的僭越了，政治喻示可谓昭然若揭。当时的普遍认识是天子可以建三台，诸侯只能建两台。\n而后一系列的超然政治待遇提升接踵而至，终建安二十一年（216 年），曹操正式被封魏王。建安二十二年(217），曹操可以设天子旌旗，称天子 “警跸” （即出行像天子一样，沿途侍卫警戒、清道止行）。不久干脆直接使用天子的十二旒礼冠和礼仪车队，成为不是天子的“天子”。曹操以人臣所能获得的一切，至此达到顶峰，只差最后一步“改元”天下，更换国号，而这是曹丕登位后迫不及待要做的事。\n赤壁之战开始于建安十三年(208)年，这时锁二乔的念头虽可以有，但还跟铜雀台沾不上边。后世文人的梦想附会可见一斑，也显示出创作者历史背景架设的成功，与金庸的作品无不相似之处。\n卧龙与凤雏\n二人背景差异很大，诸葛背景优渥占优。诸葛亮和荆州主要的上层人物，都有着密切的关系。\n诸葛亮的妻子称刘表姨父，称蔡瑁舅舅，诸葛亮和刘表、蔡瑁都是亲戚。\n庞统比诸葛大2岁，因背景弱很多，故早就出仕干活，后是主动投靠刘备。\n英雄暮年经不起打击\n\n\n官渡之战袁绍54，曹操45，故袁绍战败后一年半就去世了(56)\n\n\n刘备也是夷陵之战后一病不起，10个月后就去会二位兄弟了(62)\n\n\n曹家不耐熬\n曹丕比司马懿小8岁，活的时间还短，39就嗝屁了。传给儿子曹叡，可儿子也才活了35岁，在位13年。父子俩接力都没活过司马懿。\n再传曹芳，即位时才7岁，曹芳非曹叡亲生，也埋下被废的祸根。曹芳17岁时经高平陵之变，大权旁落司马氏。司马懿爽了2年后也嗝屁了，值了，72了。\n曹芳22岁时彻底被废，由更年轻的13岁的曹髦替他，曹髦有勇气，可19岁被众目睽睽弑君。\n由比曹髦小5岁的曹奂即位（叔叔接替侄子）。曹奂实际与曹叡是一辈的，都是曹操的孙子，曹芳与曹髦都是曾孙辈。\n曹奂即位再5年后司马炎篡位建晋朝。\nflowchart LR\nA[[曹操: 65]]--次子-->B[[曹丕: 39]]\nA--三子-->C(曹彰)\nB--长子-->D[[曹叡: 35]]\nD--养子-->E[[曹芳：43，在位15年]]\nC--孙子--->E\nE--儿子-->G[[曹髦：19]]\nG-->H\nA--九子-->F(曹宇唯一活过60岁)\nF--儿子----->H[[曹奂：58岁，在位5年叔叔接棒最后一任]]\n高平陵之变为何没人阻止司马懿\n当时在群臣眼中，大反派是曹爽而不是司马懿，曹爽这么遭人恨，正是因为他之前进行了一场改革，触及了各方权臣门阀的利益，而不是因为他尸位素餐。\n这场改革就是历史上的《正始改制》，包含三个方面的内容：\n\n📌 曹丕为了向世族争取支持和妥协搞出的九品中正制，中正官权力很大，所有人的升迁录用全在中正官一句话上，就成了世家大族就业解决办事处。\n\n\n第一个是整顿九品官人法，要求原来中正官(高级人力HR），曹爽跳出来说你们挑出来的都是自家人，要改制，不能由中正官一家说了算，必须由中央的尚书台来决定，中正官以后就负责考察候选人道德水平和看地方官员工作能力，等同于一下子把中正官最大的权力掳走了，不是因为曹爽体贴底层人，而是任何正常的集权王朝都会逐渐的把权利从地方收上去。\n第二个改革内容就是废除郡的行政级别，将全国直接变成州县两个行政级别，这么改是因为郡这个行政级别冗官太严重，做的事情和上下级别又重叠。\n第三个级别就是改革服饰，包括官员的衣服车马，就是要求勤俭杜绝奢靡。\n\n曹爽做的全是戳世家大族气管的事情，这帮人觉得你都坐上大将军了，不享福非得改制，又要限制世家大族的人事任命权，还要废除郡，砸人家的地方工资，还不让人家享乐，不收拾你收拾谁。所以这场正始改制在历史上几乎没有存在感。\n作为司马家的对立面，后来正史《晋书》当中，就把曹爽写成纯纯的反派形象，花天酒地任人唯亲。世家大族对当时司马懿养私人武装当时全都装糊涂，高平陵之变发生时亦反应相当冷静，毕竟对他们来说是重大利好消息。\n此后的世族们就彻底放飞自我了，整个西晋一朝，世家权贵全都陷入了一场疯狂的享乐狂欢之中，世族也渐渐变成了土皇帝，门阀继而孕育而生。而曹爽和他的正始改制被扔进了垃圾桶。\n昭烈帝生平\n伪职期\n刘备23岁（184年）开始讨黄巾，因军功干过县公安局长(县尉)，也干过县委书记秘书长(县丞)，后干到大县县令(不到万户小县称县长)，在县长任上被贼人击破，投奔公孙瓒，任别部司马(低阶军官，下无定员)，是公孙瓒封的，算是伪职，无法律效力，包括后来干的平原令，豫州刺史(省纪委书记)，徐州牧，都算伪职。\n官方认定中级军官\n后曹操为拉拢刘备抗击袁术，表奏刘备镇东将军，封宜城亭侯。四镇将军与四征将军，四平将军类似，级别略逊四方将军。但此刻是官方认定的了，前任镇东正是曹操，此时刘备35岁(迁都许昌改建安年号，建安元年)，成为中级军官。\n宜城亭侯有否辱没?\n宜城在刘表手下，算是虚封，收税不可能收到刘表地盘，曹在兖州，刘在徐州，汉末军阀多数爵位也就止于亭侯，也不算辱没。\n荣膺左将军\n刘备吕布交恶后，投奔曹操，曹正式册封豫州牧，37岁正式做到省委书记。但豫州牧为遥领，属于空有政治级别。同年吕布战死，备力战有功，被正式册封左将军，一生荣耀的资本。\n军职阶层\n\n📝 东汉时大司马位尊而无所统御，相当于荣誉军委主席\n\n大将军一般为外戚所任，大将军下有骠骑将军，车骑将军，卫将军和四方将军，此八将军位高权重，是为重号将军。大将军和骠骑将军位次丞相，其余位次上卿。左将军之前正是吕布，再之前为袁术。\n左将军谢幕\n39岁，衣带诏事发，一路客居袁绍刘表阵营，蹉跎岁月，流亡途中时刻将左将军印带身边，虽曹此刻又将左将军封给于禁。\n47岁赤壁胜利又重新扬眉吐气。58岁称王，60岁称帝，62岁亡。\n英雄不简单\n刘备的前半生是很糟糕的，五易其主，四失妻子，不停投靠他人，不停遭到挫折和失败。但何曾见过刘备灰心丧气，只见他屡败屡战。他是英雄，关张诸葛都看出来，曹操也看出来。\n终究是大汉气数尽了，人力不可逆，老天为了阻止刘备，耗尽了三国的英雄气，正因为刘备，400年的汉朝才结束的如此体面，刘备的存在，给大汉一个隆重的葬礼。\n在宋时，百姓听书，每听到刘备败退皆是扼腕叹息，每听到曹操败退皆是鼓掌欢庆。那时人虽然受教育程度不高，但大多都相信世间有仁义之事，有行仁义之人。而今人多利己，不相信世上有不为己的人。如此对比之下，曹操更符合今人的认知，于是尊曹贬刘。于是枭雄变成了英雄。\n刘备能让姜维一个素未蒙面的誓死效忠蜀汉，让手握重权诸葛亮鞠躬尽瘁，让北地王刘湛（其孙子）当做信仰自刎于庙堂，谥号昭烈少见。其德昭昭，其志烈烈，屡败屡战，百折不挠。\n三国这段历史国民度这么高，有人说是因为诸葛孔明，关云长的忠诚符合历代统治者的教化意图，但这样的忠臣，历史上并不少见。真正的原因可以说是刘备，蜀国圈粉无数的大 V，都应该感谢他。正因为玄德公这个理想主义的存在，三国才焕发出了传奇性和英雄主义色彩，才没有像东晋十六国、五代十国一样成为『冷门历史』，那些当时有些能力的人才没有被历史洪流埋没，才能在 2 千多年后依然被记得被讨论。\n作为蜀汉创始人，玄德公既有圣教徒般的矢志不渝的虔诚与执着，又有亡命徒般彪悍刚毅的果决和热血，他和他的追随者屡屡在走投无路、山穷水尽时，仍保持旺盛昂扬的进取意志，始终不屈不挠，从草创到覆灭，蜀汉内部始终能做到君臣互信，上下一心，或许就来自于理想主义者的精神感召。对面的曹魏和孙吴，普遍缺乏这种状态。曹魏良将颇多，但实际掌权的永远是曹家和夏侯家，孙吴好几任都督死得不明不白。是曹孙蠢么？非也！因为囚徒困境、权谋制衡，才是人类历史的常态。更映衬蜀汉是极富浪漫主义和理想主义的政权，像一朵在历史刀光剑影和血雨腥风中独自盛开的理想主义之花，让人击节赞叹！\n节&amp;钺\n节是使者代表皇帝处理国家事务时所持的信物 , 不是专杀权的象征。钺为斧钺，一种刑具。\n\n节：最常见的形象就是苏武；长安三万里中持节监军程元振，也有节的画面形象出现\n假：权以给之,不常与\n\n\n\n假节：平时没有权利处置人，战时可斩杀犯军令的人。\n\n\n持节：平时可杀无官位之人，战时可斩杀二千石以下官员。\n\n\n使持节：平时及战时皆可斩杀二千石以下官员。\n\n\n假节钺：战时状态，可杀节将（含假节、持节、使持节）\n\n\n三国人口变动\n东汉末年没爆发黄巾赤眉时，5000w人(也有一说5600w人)，三国期间人口损失比例最多，人口下降71%，只剩1600w人（也有配套一说760w）\n\n看到这些初步惊心的数字，看得出来三国是中国谋略斗争一个高光时刻，亦是老百姓的一个灾难时刻。真实刻画了一将功成万骨枯，兴百姓苦，亡百姓苦的历史规律。真是盛世尽其力，乱世用其命（白话来说：穷人是战争时代的炮灰，和平时代待宰的羔羊）。\n三国时期杀人比例历代最高，带来71%登记人口的减少。但论绝对的损失人口最多，还得是太平天国时期，带来中国人口损失在1亿（一说7500w）以上，大约30%死于战争本身，剩余70%死于传染病霍乱。对长江中下游地区损失影响最大。\n\n\n📍三国农户数登记对比\n\n蜀国90，吴国240w，魏国440w\n\n📌 军队数量对比\n\n吴国23w军队，蜀国10w军队\n\n三户一兵， 蜀国加后勤应该有10万，但是不可能动用这么多，出兵一直都是1–3万\n姜维巅峰期估计也最多3万兵马！蜀国才90万人，3万兵6万伕，9万估计是极限了！\n\n\n战争就是赌博，好赌的人必输得裤衩都不剩，要就要一战定乾坤，而不要百战而陷泥潭（历史上从不缺百战而亡的典范）。 从这个角度，蜀国最后一直北伐，百姓应是最惨的，也是为何最后直接投降的原因吧。\n\n冷兵器时代的战斗\n兵力估算\n70%劳动人口很大比例了，50%女性，35%的男性劳动力，结合古代 3兵6伕 的投入比，能上战场再1/3，大致也就10%的远程极限兵力。现代28天的中越战争中，50w军力中后勤就占30w。现代美军的后勤比例更高，现役140w人，一线作战仅20多w，几乎达到每十名后勤人员补给一个战斗人员的比例，这才有了美军傲世全球的后勤能力，无论是食品还是武器弹药，美军都不需要担心这些物资的消耗。\n长平之战\n《史记》中说，长平之战，秦军共出动了60万军队。假设每个士兵每天吃1斤谷物，一天需要60万斤，长平对峙2年，就按照700天来算，总共需要21万吨。从秦国的收集和转运中心渭河谷地为起点，到太行山麓的长平大约是500千米。秦国+巴蜀约莫500万人，那么要每人交40公斤粮食才能保障。考虑到可能要配30w人后勤运输粮食，路上人吃马喂，整体要40万吨粮食。40万吨，那么每个人要交80公斤粮食。10税一的比例下，要人均产出800公斤粮食，这远超出了当时的农业生产力，要么就是积攒很多很多年的粮，才能打这一仗，要么就是60w是严重夸大其词，要么这里面包括大量的后勤兵[6]。\n汉匈之战\n《史记》记载元狩四年春卫青与霍去病兵分两路出击匈奴，武帝以14万匹战马及50万步卒作为后勤补给兵团，授于卫青与霍去病各五万骑兵，另步兵和运输物资的军队十万余，总人数约70万出击匈奴，70万人中，真正的战兵仅10万，辅兵10万，后勤兵有50万，占比达到了70%\n北宋记录\n沈括《梦溪笔谈》中有记：卒自携五日干粮，人食日二升。每个民夫可以背6斗米，那么一个民夫供应1个士兵，可以支撑18天，如果考虑回程，只能前进9天的路程。\n\n\n\n1斗10升，卒自带相当于1斗。二人合计7斗，7*10/2(人)/2(升)=17.5≈18天\n\n\n两个民夫供应一个士兵的话，单程可以维持26天，回程支撑13天（这还是考虑到1民夫带的粮食快吃完了，就发粮遣散回去，减少每日前线口粮的情况下）\n\n\n三个民夫供应1个士兵，单程可维持31天，回程支撑16天。在那个年代三人饷一卒，极矣！\n\n\n随着民夫的增加，运输能力确实增加了，但支撑天数边际效应却在递减。后勤运输无法用规模效应来降低成本！\n\n隋征高句丽\n《隋书·本纪四》记载：隋军第一次远征高句丽时，“凡一百一十三万三千八百人，号二百万，其馈运者倍之。”负责运送粮草的人员达到了令人瞠目结舌的70%\n战损比\n古代军队伤亡率超过 10% / 15%就会崩溃， 有这么一个观点。\n说这个问题吧，伤亡超过10%，不是整条战线逢10死1，而是某一点击穿了，一个局部已经被杀百分之七八十，局部作战单位已经不能发挥战术作用。这时战术部署已坏，还能不撤/不败？例如侧翼、中路、或包抄，导致某支关键部队完了，有缺口了，引起雪崩效应。\n古代几十场会战中，胜利方多数损失率不超过10%，一般看在7%以下，平均是1%~ 5%，从一个侧面可以认为，通常情况古代军队是比较难撑到10%这个全面伤亡率的，战败方那不不好说了，一溃就被追杀，损失率比正面交锋还高。古代作战，精锐在前，役夫在后，精锐按作战计划对敌实施突破，一旦形成压倒性优势，全军鼓动形成顺风态势，役夫也可争功追杀溃退的敌军，完成战役任务。\n如何理解10%这个比例，古代军队作战，只有精锐有战斗力，其它役夫多数是乌合之众，没有接受过军事训练。也正因为如此，古代战争中劫营经常只需要少量的精锐展开攻击，因为留在大营的役夫不会打仗。\n这10%损失往往对应的是精锐，一支10w人的队伍，精锐总数不过3w，1w被消灭，实际是精锐损失30%，不可能有充分的预备队能顶得上，精锐除了作战还要保护大营和役夫的安全，作战效能降低，管理能力下降，役夫恐慌一旦形成炸营，很容易崩溃。\n如上为基本判断的缘由。而精锐部队，在阵型不被撕裂的状态下承受伤亡肯定高于10%，承受不了肯定是指挥出了问题，精锐团队加持宗教或风俗的思想动力，在千人级战斗力完全可以做到玉碎，死战到最后一人，历史上就有很多事迹。\n武将单挑\n《三国演义》中武将经常单挑，这显然是不真实的，不妨碍大家最津津乐道武将单挑排名。大将相拼，纯属为提高小说故事趣味而已。\n\n《三国志》+建安七子之一王粲编写的《英雄记》中，拢共只记录了4次单挑。\n\n\n董卓死后李傕、郭汜进犯长安，与王允、吕布展开了血战。吕布拿着长矛，与郭汜展开了单挑。战斗中，骁勇的吕布用矛刺伤了郭汜，但郭汜的部下给力，当时就把他给救走了–《英雄记》[1]。吕布尽管赢了单挑，却输了战争，最后弃城而走\n关羽斩颜良。袁绍派遣颜良袭击白马，曹操亲自率军救援，并派关羽、张辽为先锋迎击颜良。羽望见良麾盖，策马刺良于万众之中，斩其首还，绍诸将莫能当者，遂解白马围。\n太史慈单挑孙策。时独与一骑卒遇策，策从骑十三，皆韩当、宋谦、黄盖辈也。慈便前斗，正与策对。策刺慈马，而揽得慈项上手戟，慈亦得策兜鍪。会两家兵骑并各来赴，于是解散。（孙策刺倒了太史慈的战马，夺了他的手戟，而太史慈也摘得了孙策的战盔。算是平局）\n建安初年，韩遂与马超大战。阎行挺矛来刺马超，矛折，因以折矛挝（zhuā，击打、抓）超项，几杀之。马超显得狼狈，几乎被一无名小将所杀。\n\n将军在谋不在勇，能指挥千军万马，攻城掠地或保家卫国，能不战而屈人之兵，方可称为真正将才帅才。\n逞匹夫之勇带兵冲锋陷阵者，只可为下级军官，中级军官亦不进入前沿阵地，否则一旦伤亡，千军无首，必大败无疑。\n传国玉玺哪去了？\n传国玺的形制和由来\n\n🔔   始皇帝一统天下，规定帝、后的印章称为“玺”，并且以玉为材质；其他的官印、私印只能称为“印”\n\n正史对玉玺的记载都很少，大部分是民间传说。离秦朝最近的史书《史记》里并没有任何传国玉玺形制的记载，传国玺这个称呼最早出现是在《汉书》，班固在王莽传中，描述它最早叫做始皇玺，后来因为子婴降汉落到了刘邦手中，刘邦得了后藏于长乐宫，汉朝国祚几百年，它才有了名字传国玺的意义（号为：汉传国玺）。到这个时候史书对玺的记录也仅仅停留在它的职能上，而完全忽视它的材质。在史记、汉书两部史书中，根本没有提到它是不是由玉石所做，更遑论是用和氏璧做得了。这两位应该是有机会见到传国玉玺的，却没有支言片语的相关记录，不能不说是一个遗憾。\n在《汉书-元后传, 也就是王莽的姑姑的传记》里提及，王莽请玺，元后不得已”投之地以授“，也没提掷地缺角的事[3]。《三国演义》编写始皇曾投玺至洞庭湖镇风浪全无正史依据。\n讨论下才材质谣言\n直到《后汉书》第一次肯定了传国玺的质地，作者南朝刘宋范晔在光武帝本纪的玉玺谱中是这么记录的“传国玺，其玉出蓝田山，在玉玺掉地后加上了一个补充，“乃出玺投地。玺上螭一角缺”。在玉玺有螭龙的那个角给摔掉了，注意这个角不是螭龙的角，因为螭是一种无角的龙”，内容源流应出自东汉卫宏《汉旧仪》-- 其实《汉旧仪》只提过天子六玺，毕竟范晔所处的年代和身份无缘一见玉玺的真容，却对其描述极其详尽。\n传国玺的流行观点是由和氏璧制作，这一说法最初来源于北魏的崔浩，但他完全没有任何依据。璧都是比较薄的，完全不具有做玺的厚度。\n汉朝时期的诏书都是竹简木牍写的，因为印泥是东晋南北朝时期才有的，蘸墨汁盖章效果可不好，扩散效果一印浸一片。战汉时期的玺印都是封竹简用的，捆后用封泥封上盖个戳子。当时的印玉大小有规定，方两寸，差不多2.7~2.8厘米，&quot;吕后&quot;的皇后印玺就是2.8厘米，通高2厘米，重33克，博物馆出土的印没大的，海昏侯刘贺的也就一点大。王侯级别尚且如此，官员就更小了，和拇指肚差不多，因为要证明身份+起封印作用，需随身携带，大了也不成。\n\n\n汉印较之秦印，在布局上更趋饱满、充实。成熟后的汉印印式，多无边阑界格，印文直逼印边。印文字间、行间的空隙．往往也留得很少。汉印用“缪篆”，较“摹印篆”更趋于端方、密实。对比下面的“皇帝信玺”的文字和皇后之玺 也正好印证。\n后来的玉玺越做越大，是因为纸张和各类技术的进步随之变化\n\n《吴书》中的记载，提到“玺方围（周长）四寸，上纽交五龙，上一角缺，现今出土的秦汉印章其纽制都罕见交龙，按照汉制，皇帝、皇后、太后所用的印玺纽制都为螭虎纽，然后丞相、列侯以下为龟钮、环钮等等。只有到了隋唐以后，才渐渐地采用龙形钮。\n皇帝另有6枚印玺：皇帝(天子)行玺，皇帝(天子)之玺，皇帝(天子)信玺。赏赐诸侯王用皇帝行玺，发兵/召大臣用皇帝信玺，向外国发送文书用天子行玺。看看这个”皇帝信玺“存世孤品封泥\n\n东汉学者卫宏在《旧汉仪》中有“天子信玺皆以武都紫泥封”之说\n\n\n\n国玺文字是什么？\n你会说，上图不是传国玉玺，传国玉玺是8个字。但没有任何文物能印证此说法，只能在后代史书中看文字描述。且多本史书上记载的刻字内容还不同，有这么几种说法：\n\n\n卫宏《汉旧仪》，《吴书》，《玉玺谱》：受命于天，既寿永昌。\n\n\n应劭《汉官仪》、皇甫谧《帝王世纪》：受命于天，既寿且康。\n\n\n孙盛《晋阳秋》载冉巍大将蒋干送东晋的是：昊天之命，皇帝寿昌\n\n\n徐广、沈约《宋书·礼志五》：受天之命，皇帝寿昌。\n\n\nflowchart LR\nA(东汉卫宏)-->B(汉末应劭)-->C(魏晋《吴书》)-->D(魏晋皇甫谧)-->E(东晋《晋阳秋》)-->F(东晋&刘宋徐广)-->G(南齐《玉玺谱》)-->H(南齐&南梁《宋书·志礼》)\n首先，应劭和皇甫谧，都没有见到传国玺的机会。应劭是汉末泰山太守。因为曹操的父亲曹嵩死在泰山郡，担心曹操报复自己，便弃官投奔了袁绍，一生没见过汉献帝。\n皇甫谧是魏晋名士，一辈子都没有做官，他写的书都是坐在家里写的，他的内容推测是照着应劭的《汉官仪》抄的。\n卫宏生活的时代最早，他是汉光武帝时期人，而且也是皇帝钦命的议郎，他的说法应该最可靠。剩下的年代都越离越远或算不上24史之列的野史记载。不足为信。\n\n卫宏乃是东汉初人，著《汉旧仪》四卷。在《后汉书．卷四八．徐璆传》唐．章怀太子注引卫宏语: 讲秦玺由蓝田玉制作而成，李斯书“受命于天，既寿永昌”。此处也是说蓝田玉的最早出处。章怀太子李贤在引此内容时，偏偏漏掉了书名，十分奇怪\n\n南朝刘宋人士裴松之在给在《三国志》做注时，发现《吴书》上关于传国玺上写的八个字与应劭、皇甫谧的记载最后两个字不同，他当场表示无法判断“且康”和“永昌”哪个是对的。他不知道？裴松之身处刘宋朝廷，他是有机会见到当朝的传国玺的，为何装糊涂？因为当时宋文帝手上的写的是”受天之命，皇帝寿昌“，他若提了就是在作大死，说南朝传国玺已不是秦汉那一枚了，所以只能装不知道。\n小方印刻8个字可能么？\n上海博物馆藏的汉代广汉大将军章，银质，方2.35厘米，高2厘米。能刻下6个字，对于在稍微大一点的王玺（2.8厘米），多容纳2个字也可能。\n\n什么字体？\n网上还有流传的鸟虫体的仿制照片，亦不可信\n“鸟虫体”不可太能，秦刚统一文字，使“小篆”成为当时法定通用的官方文字，不可能不采用官方文字。\n另秦汉印因为那时纸张印色还没发明，所以玺印都是阴刻。那张阳文鸟虫书做作，迥异于传世青铜器，玺印清秀神逸的风格。\n弄丢又找到\n它经常被弄丢，又莫名其妙被神奇找到，有人说其实他每次找到都是有人造了个假的。在西晋后出现好几方传国玺，做假已明着来。\n\n五胡乱华前，传国玺虽经过几次丢失，但都在数年内找回，那些见过玉玺的内官宫人还尚在，能辨别真伪。而从西晋灭亡衣冠南渡后，长安洛阳成为废墟，侨居江南的东晋人恐怕都没见过原货，无法鉴别。北魏为了说明自己正统性，也谎称在邺城佛像后发现了传国玺，还同时发现两枚，真是各种赝品层出不穷。\n\n流传比较广的说法是后唐末帝李从珂在洛阳自焚后，玺已下落不明（玉内部结构并不算稳定，遇高温会膨胀，容易破碎）。李从珂从隋唐继承下来的玉玺也是来历不明的，往前追溯，是从东晋从冉魏手中获得，而玉玺上文字跟《后汉书》记载不同，当时多份玉玺出现的记载也相互矛盾（东晋，前秦，后秦，北魏，北齐都自称有传国玺）。\n南朝有两枚玉玺已经够乱了，北朝又出现了新的玉玺。北魏太武帝灭佛期间，从邺城被捣毁的佛像中发现两枚玉玺，刻字确实是&quot;受命于天，既寿永昌&quot;。但其中一枚又多刻了一句话：魏所受汉传国玺。\n这两个也是假的，因为如果真玺在手，何必要造假呢？就算造假也没有把两个放在一起的道理。多出的那句：魏所受汉传国玺，看起来也有些画蛇添足，因为以往的史书根本没提过曹丕乱刻乱画一事。\n真相最可能是什么？\n\n要么根本就没有六玺之外的传国“吉语玺”，因为此重要物件在《史记》中毫无记载，最早的痕迹都出自东汉，属于汉代自己创作的。\n要么秦始皇在“六玺”之外确实刻过另一枚玺，但那只不过是普通的“吉语玺”，随身佩带以趋吉避邪，不具有权力象征的意义。这枚玺后来被汉高祖刘邦所得。\n\n之所以受到历代皇帝的推崇，被尊为“传国玺”，与汉代“符命”、“谶纬”学说的发展有着密切关系。\n真正的传国玉玺（秦玺），大概率在汉末董卓之乱时已经丢失。孙坚在井中得玺太过神异，不真实。魏晋南北朝都伪造玉玺，以明正统。\n\n如果像《三国演义》描述的中平六年（189年）的那场十常侍动乱中丢失的说法（汉少帝夜出北宫避难，仓促间将传国玺留在宫内，待到返回后，传国玉玺已经不知所终），首先正史未提及传国玺当时不见的事，且《献帝起居注》记载“天子从河上还，得六玉玺于阁上”。按《演义》的说法，没道理孙坚短暂驻留洛阳能找得到，而董卓呆了近两年却找不到（未提及去寻过），所以更可能丢失晚于十常侍之乱，在董卓之乱时。\n孙坚得玺被袁术夺走，当时离的最近的陈寿《三国志》袁术传里，丝毫没提，孙坚传里也没收录记载孙破虏得玺。这条线索还靠后世人写的书修这个逻辑漏洞。裴松之特别强调史书应“直书实录”，裴氏批评鱼豢《魏略》有“妄说”，谢承《后汉书》有“妄记”，对于乐资《山阳公载记》和袁暐《献帝春秋》，裴氏的批判尤为尖锐，说他们“轻弄翰墨，妄生异端”。\n汇总整理前面几本后汉书的范晔，与裴松之同时代，以年龄论，裴比范长二十岁，裴死更比范后六年。裴年终八十，长寿。\n\n曹丕逼迫汉献帝禅位，强令曹皇后交出“传国玺”，但由于此物已经遗失，于是只好重刻一枚。但后世朝代之所以没有一人对“传国玺”的真假提出过怀疑，是在于为了维护皇权的稳固。\n传国玉玺这个东西其实没有实际的意义，只能起到一个加成的作用。如果你坐了江山，这时候玉玺在手，说明你名正言顺。如果没有，那就差点意思了, 且是怀璧其罪了，这时候有还不如没有（如三国演义中的袁术）。\n而至于后来所谓“传国玺”的故事，不过是统治者为了证明“皇权神授”的地位而人为做出的品宣工作。\n十胜十败黑本初，阿瞒更拼值得赢\n袁绍囊括冀青幽并四州，收渔阳上谷精锐，控地千里，作为非家族正室所生没继承核心荣光和资产，却俨然要成为东汉末年最靓的仔，这样的人说其多谋而少决，说他愚蠢不会用人，或许也是史书马后炮的评论。白马将军公孙瓒都称赞其：袁绍之攻，似若神鬼。曹操整个少年时代，也是作为袁绍的马仔在洛阳混的，可以说袁绍是曹操前半生仰望的对象。肯定不止来自袁绍的出身，还来自其个人魅力。\n公元199年，袁绍和曹操直接开干一点问题没有，当时曹刚接收徐州豫州，只有兖州是自己的基本盘，打了这么多年，已经是一身虚汗。在袁绍角度看，我方现金流充足，对方刚花巨资吞并一些小公司，正是需要安抚吸纳的时候，此时不干更待何时？\n官渡之战时，曹老板很怵袁绍，只不过是被动迎战没得退路。自己内部不恐冀不会抛出什么狗屁十胜十败，真是这样能撺出北方那么大一摊子？郭嘉也知道，但必须这样去黑袁绍来安稳军心，侧面说明袁绍没选错时机。曹老板在官渡前线心态其实几乎崩溃，荀彧不断写信给曹老板让其坚持下去。曹操看着因高压和断粮即将崩溃的士气，跟士兵说，再给我15天，15天内我必破袁军。他心里肯定没底，但没有办法，否则士卒当场就会溃散。\n神奇就神奇在转机出现，许攸因为党争原因叛逃，见面就问曹老板你还有多少军粮？断言其连三日的军粮就没有，三国志记载曹操当时震惊的看着许攸，说明这消息可能袁绍已掌握。许攸说袁绍同样也缺粮，但有一批粮食即将运到袁军大营，现存放乌巢。这点上看袁绍的情报工作做的更好，曹断粮他知道，他断粮要靠人叛变曹老板才知道。还派过人刺杀曹操，差点得手，真是印证了似若神鬼这句评价。\n曹操即钦点5千精锐亲自带领，一路打着袁军的旗号向乌巢进发，这5000人军队哪怕被发现，或被咬住，曹操本人也是万分凶险，但曹操没有选择，因为弱者是没有选择的，他只能赌。摸到乌巢后，守军有1万，大将淳于琼坐镇。曹老板带领虎豹骑疯狂的杀向粮仓。袁绍反应也很快，立马派5000骑兵驰援乌巢，并派张郃带领大军直接攻向曹营。当袁绍援军距离还有10里时，哨兵来报，大将纷纷劝曹老板留下一半的人狙击，曹老板可清醒的很，等他们杀到我身后来再说。随即亲自带兵搏杀，大家看到大领导连命也不要了，纷纷那袋也别在裤腰带上，爆发出惊人战斗力，阵斩淳于琼。试想如果不是曹操亲自前来，为首大将看到前方受阻，后方敌军援军又快到了，会不会心里一崩溃就投降了，就算心理过硬，但就是打不下来怎么办？大概不是曹亲自来，派哪位大将来也达不到历史上的效果。曹军大营侧艰难顶住张郃进攻，迟迟攻不下，传来乌巢火起，淳于琼被斩，袁军士气当时一下就散了，张郃顶不住压力直接带着本部就投降曹军了。\n前方大将叛逃，后方粮仓起火，袁军士气此时脆弱如纸，瞬间崩溃，官渡之战以曹老板的胜利而告终。袁绍唯一做错的，就是不该派一个手下去攻击曹操大营，他亲自去，说不定袁军战斗力就会提升一个档次，大将也怎么可能叛逃。袁绍就败在关键时刻把自己豁出去的勇气，曹操相反知道自己如果输了，要么在乌巢死，要么逃回许昌，苟延残喘几个月也是死，这个时候不拼完全没有机会了。跟创业一个道理，既然选了，前期就不要想着休息偷懒假期，创业的本质就是在改命，命运感知到你想要更大的福报的时候，一定会给你压力，给你低谷，给你安排各种人和事，造成你情绪上的各种不稳定，老天在用这种方式测试你是否配得上你的欲望。欲戴王冠，必承其重。几乎不存在人在家中坐，好消息天上来的情况，你不把自己命豁出去，你的团队如何去拼命，只有你连命都不要了，你的团队才有可能为了你的事业而去努力。\n老板就是兄弟们跟我上，成功了大家分，失败了我自己死。有了这份觉悟，在加上运气加持，命才能改成。若你真身处一个必须的境遇，须记得创业和打工不同，要靠自己的披荆斩棘，生生开创出一条路出来，所以必然很难很累，考验的是你全方位的能力：个人的魅力，沟通能力，分钱的模式，你的气量，抗压能力。最后还有运气运气运气和时代的呼唤。\n谋士为何做不了一把手\n正常的谋士其实都是清醒的，有自知之明的，并不觉得自己的谋起了决定性作用。在历史的关键时刻，人格魅力，用人水平，组织能力，执行力乃至人心向背，天命所归，这些看起来较玄的东西都比『谋』重要。\n官渡之战的时候，曹袁双方的谋士集团都不差，双方的弱点和命脉都看到了，但关键时刻，只有曹操豁得出去，赌上数万人的生死存亡直扑乌巢，且全军上下都愿意跟着他拼命，这些本事胜过无数谋士，你思前想后谋划一晚上，不如一瞬间的当机立断。\n隋唐虎牢关之战的时候，李世民麾下谋士多次劝他班师免得腹背受敌，窦建德的谋士也多次劝窦不要去洛阳，应直捣长安，攻其必救。双方都有道理，结果双方都不听劝，然后李世民围点打援，3000 玄甲军突袭，破 10万众，一战擒双王。李密也是当谋士很清醒，当君主很糊涂，当君主需要把方案落实，这中间差距很大。\n淮海战役时，双方参谋不知对着地图推演多少遍，但那都是理想状态，真正的战场是瞬息万变的，教员直接放手让 502 去干，让其把小淮海打成大淮海，直接解决了敌人的主力集团，直到杜聿明全军覆没前，国民党大佬们上上下下围着地图在那谋呢，有用么。\n把历史连起来看，就发现谋重要，断更重要。这些历史上惊天动地的大人物，往往不是同时代最聪明考虑最周密的人，但他们往往是最能决断，最具人格魅力，最一呼百应，敌我皆服的人物。不下决心则已，一下决心，似乎英雄豪杰，百姓万民，天地乾坤都能站在他们那边。\n谋士是提供各种思路和可能性，然后把各种后果都摆在一把手面前，让一把手去决定。他们经常出上中下三策，这很合理，他们只出主意，不做决断，也不承担责任。但谋划只是大事的一部分，就算你算无遗策，大事还是需要无数人去执行，变数和意外太多了。越是环环相扣，精巧无比的谋算越容易出纰漏，这时候领袖的决断，各个部门的执行力，甚至是运气都比谋划更重要。\n\n三流的方案匹配一流的执行力的结果不一定比一流方案三流执行差，所以事情一定要去做，做才有成功的机会\n\n谋士不用去抉择，不用去执行，不用去选人用将，更不用去承担后果和责任。谋士可以甩锅，一把手甩不了锅。历史上的一把手往往具有常人没有的魅力，如刘邦的大事换成张良，萧何，韩信都不可能做成。一把手不需要瞻前顾后，算无遗策，面面俱到。他更需要在生死存亡的关头站出来，带领大家走出绝境，找到发展空间，赢得胜利。我行的道，你连尝试都不敢，春秋褒贬，一身当之，谋士们没有这个勇气担当，能扛得起这些才是历史的选择\n董卓也曾甘当牛马\n不经历永远不会在脸上长出横肉。董卓也曾甘当牛马为东汉南征北战。成年后在陇西郡担任官吏，胡人经常骚扰边境，他保境安民，破胡人斩获千计，羌人进犯，董卓斩其首领，俘虏万余人，功拜郎中，并将赏赐分给下属官吏和士兵。\n他镇守帝国边陲多年，一直是东汉最忠实的牛马。可黄巾起义的爆发改变了他的人生。184年6月，北中郎将卢植被罢免后，改拜董卓为东中郎将，接管冀州战区事务。董卓放弃围攻张角据守的广宗县，率主力北上攻打张宝据守的曲阳县，围攻两月不克，被罢免至廷尉受审，判“减死罪一等”，如果没有大赦天下，董卓可能会在囚牢中度过余生，这让已53岁的他明白，任劳任怨是应该的，错一次就能让你万劫不复。\n同年底，西凉叛乱，董又有了新机会，这次他决定为自己而活，185年3月，朝廷命左骑将军皇甫嵩领军出征，董卓拜中郎将为副，11月董大破叛军，斩数千，追击叛军时，6路大军只有董的这支全员班师屯兵于右扶风，因功封其为斄(lai)乡侯，封邑一千户，可这让董卓已提不起兴趣，他开始培养自己的势力。\n189年成为董真正蜕变的一年，2月灵帝病重，下诏拜董卓为并州牧，实则让他交出兵权，董接受而不交权，于是灵帝下诏责备董卓。最终董带了5000人向并州出发，但停留在河东郡就不走了，他是想观察洛阳局势，4月灵帝驾崩，大将军何进预诛杀宦官，而何太后不肯下诏。于是何进私召董卓领兵进京。这时董卓又有了前往洛阳的借口。\n宦官和外戚斗作一团，董明白东汉已经烂到根了，直接兵进河南尹，九月二十二日，何进被杀，袁绍等人直接闯宫诛杀宦官，董卓望见洛阳上空浓烟滚滚，才得知朝廷发生重大变故，于是下令进军在北邙山营救了皇帝刘辩和后来的献帝刘协。董入京后，一方面让自己的部队半夜出城，白天进城，造成他的兵马源源不断进驻洛阳的假象，另一方面极力收拢何进的部曲，如张辽和车骑将军何苗的部曲，又引诱吕布杀害丁原，吞并了并州人的军队，如此掌握了洛阳的所有军权，一时间成为帝国真正掌权人，皇帝成为了木偶，后宫成为了他的乐园，鱼肉百官，横征暴敛，这魔性难道不是这世道逼的？不是这减死罪一等吓的，不是牛马翻身后的狂欢吗？\n时代困兽吕奉先\n为什么曹操性格那么多变，为什么袁绍不听人建议，为什么袁术那么强又一塌糊涂，为什么孙权会那么分裂，为什么刘备一定要给二爷报仇。看个人不光从客观视角，还要从人的视角。史书是“结果归因”的产物，根据事情定义一个人，没办法，大家不是古人的蛔虫，很多想不通，都是视角问题。\n要争的就是一个公平\n出生在东汉帝国的边陲，家境寒微，没有举孝廉的条件，所以学习武艺勤练骑射。通过一次次的搏命中被丁原看重初入仕途。丁原对他很亲近，他以为这是老板的看重，可他错了，当何进让丁原推荐合适将领入京时，丁原没有将这入京看繁华的机会给他，而是给了比他年龄资历都小的张辽，张辽的家族是雁门当时显赫的家族。这让他明白公平只能靠自己争取，别人给的全是施舍。\n何进死后，洛阳龙盘虎踞，他需要进一步展示自己的机会，终于被董卓看中，拜中郎将，封都亭侯。可殊不知董卓也是让他在身边当个保安，190 年诸侯讨董，让吕布去挖皇陵，191 年抵御孙坚，让胡轸为大都护，他只为副手（骑督），情同父子只是让他干脏活累活的借口。董卓只信任他的西凉亲信，吕布这样的人怎配统领他的西凉铁骑。\n当被王允找到时，吕布知道这个世族出身的人对他以礼相待，又是在利用他，可不被他们利用，又如何自保呢，192 年诛董后被拜为奋威将军，假节，仪比三司，进封温侯，皇帝也会叫他一声将军，一时间成了帝国当世红人。这个看似的公平，也是拿命争抢过来的。\n困兽之斗的时代解读\n《三国志》评价吕布无战略规划，轻浮反复无常，只看眼前利益，每个点都有史料依据，客观看没一点问题，但换个角度看，吕布除了上过失信名单榜首这点比我们离谱外，简直就是百姓的历史[7]。我们谁有长远规划，谁不是得意忘形，谁不是只看眼前利益，我们谁不是吕布，谁不是放纵兽性。\n在社会里做困兽之斗，谁能喜怒不形于色跟刘备一样？谁能眼光长远跟孟德一般？谁能恬静淡泊跟孔明一样？谁能藏剑于心稳如化石跟司马老贼一样？下层人爱眼前也没办法。按网络上的新解：眼光放长远就是眼前没我，大局为重就是大局无我。咱们要是开路虎住别墅，小米新车一上市就来一辆，眼光可比西气东输的管道还长。\n吕布面临的局势是咋样的？三国前是两汉相对平和的四百年，和平久了长得像人的兽就比较多，还结成团伙。东汉是百年的王朝，千年的大族。两汉前就有很多大族，汉长期相对稳定，大族变得更多了，陈寿写三国，一说家世，二说才能。很多人一开头是西汉哪个名臣之后，东汉哪个太尉司徒之后，皇家有宦官外戚，朝堂有世家大族，民间有豪强地主，有些人土地多的连自己都记不住，能养起几千人吃穿，有人富的明着犯罪都不用躲风头。大族在朝堂互相推荐，地主在民间互相兼并。东汉末年的仕途，看得一是家世，二是名声，三是颜值，没准第五才是才能。所以曹操在当时的正向意义很大，袁绍就占了颜值高的光，东汉末年真到了该社会洗牌的时候了。\n但有吕布啥事啊，要不是他武艺杰出，牌桌上不会有他，他连陪跑的资格本就没有，因为武力高他才能在省里上班，因为武力高，董卓盯上他，王允盯上他。董卓死后，他在长安是坐不住的，大族朝臣谁买他账啊，要家世没家世，要名声名声毁了，文官看不上他，武将恨他，打了一架，他成了流浪军。袁绍要杀他，袁术讨厌他，没人疼爱，陈宫盯上了他，后来跟曹操打了三个月军粮尽了，虎落平阳被犬欺连一个县里的李进他都打不赢，而后跑到徐州，又被曹操袁术盯上。说好听点驰骋中原，不好听点一个打手。\n曹操给官打袁术，袁术给粮打刘备，曹操有政治，刘备有人望，袁术有兵马，吕布陷入了代理人战争，一个在兖州饿得死去活来的集团，没办法，他需要那些官位粮草，曹操有饭吃时，眼光看得长远，逼急了也得看眼前利益，就像很多人需要窝窝头不需要长远机会一样，你和一些人说AI是风口，新能源是未来有屁用，他吃了上顿下顿还要去赊账，哪能顾得了那么长远。\n吕布一生无一例外是被人摆布，困兽之斗。他对朝堂有功，对袁家有恩，虽不是他的主观本心，也是客观存在。唯物史观喷他没问题，也可以说他世俗，牌桌上的下等人，心性上的普通人，品格上的差等人，个人史观也没问题，但还是应以唯物为主，否则易陷入唯心主义和虚无主义。然而最后最重要的还是以吕布为原型，创造了一个头戴束发紫金冠，身披西蜀红锦袍，手持方天，马踏中原的经典艺术形象，这种过程快乐更是读者喜闻乐见的。\n参考\n1.古诗文网 英雄记 ↩2.关于吕布的年龄 ↩3.汉书-元后传 ↩4.故宫博物院 宝玺源流 ↩5.新浪新闻 公元420年代，他为何要为《三国志》作注？ ↩6.搜狐 盘点历代后勤兵比例 ↩7.抖音-以古为镜老汪 吕布，世俗里的困兽 ↩","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"三国台词如饮美酒","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E5%8F%B0%E8%AF%8D%E5%A6%82%E9%A5%AE%E7%BE%8E%E9%85%92.html","content":"听老版三国的台词，如饮美酒。网上的片段传播的很多，故听到这些台词很有画面感。文学性，演员的表演节奏也相得益彰，摘录一些，开心饮之。\n本初高光\n\n袁本初：当今，朝廷初定，召尔等入京，以为辅佐天子安定庶民。而你，却几次三番，妄议废嫡长而立庶，岂不是蓄意谋反吗？\n董仲颖：天下事在我，我今为之，谁敢不从？\n袁：哼，天下之事在皇帝，在诸位忠臣，你，只不过是一篡逆之辈，又待怎样？\n董：尔要试试我宝剑是否锋利吗？\n袁：我剑也未尝不利！\n\n真实的历史是二人私聊的，当场袁绍的确表达不同意见，后袁为避反目旋即离开洛阳。对话定不如演义般剑拔弩张。\n\n燕雀鸿鹄\n\n\n曹孟德：燕雀安知鸿鹄之志。\n诸葛亮：鸿鹄之志岂燕雀能知？\n三让徐州\n\n刘玄德：公以备为何人？圣人云：“自古皆有死，人无信不立。”备借得到人马借不到人马，都必将亲至。\n煮酒论英雄\n曹孟德：放今春深，龙趁势变化，犹如人得志而纵横四海，龙之为物可比世之英雄，玄德久历四方必知当世英雄，请试为操言之。\n…\n备：淮南袁术兵粮足备，可谓英雄？\n曹：冢中枯骨耳，我早晚必擒之\n备：河北袁绍四世三公，今虎踞冀州之地，部下能仕者极多，可谓英雄？\n曹：袁绍色厉胆薄，好谋无断，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，非英雄也。\n评袁绍：色厉胆薄，好谋无断，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，非英雄也。\n…\n备：益州刘季玉可谓英雄也？\n曹：刘璋虽为宗室不过守门之犬，何足英雄也\n备：那张绣张鲁韩遂等辈如何？\n曹：此等碌碌小人何足挂齿\n备：舍此之外，备实不知\n曹：夫英雄者，胸怀大志，腹有良策，有包藏宇宙之机，吞吐天地之志也！\n备：谁可当之？\n曹：今天下英雄，惟使君与操耳。\n丈夫之辞\n\n吕奉先：大丈夫生居天地之间，岂能郁郁久居人下！\n邓(艾)士载：想我幼年丧父，年方十二，为农家放牛，奉养老母，发奋攻读，才有今日。我以牧牛为生，自然爱惜牲畜，揣情度理，近乎人情，不为辱也！出身寒微，不是耻辱；能屈能伸，方为丈夫！\n败走麦城\n\n关云长：孙权贼子，怎能与我兄汉中王相提并论。我乃解良一武夫，蒙我主以兄弟相待，桃园结义三十余年，情同手足，从不相移。汉中王委我以大任，义重如山。我堂堂丈夫，焉能背义投敌？哼！城若破，有死而已。玉可碎而不可改其白，竹可焚而不可毁其节。身虽死，名可垂于竹帛也，又何惧哉！\n舌战群儒\n\n诸葛亮：子山兄以为苏秦，张仪仅仅是说客吗？岂不知他二人是真豪杰也！苏秦佩六国相印，张仪两次为秦国宰相。二人皆有匡扶国家之大智大勇，非比那欺弱怕强，苟安避祸之人。君等未见曹操一兵一卒，便闻风丧胆，畏惧请降，如此还敢嘲笑苏秦、张仪吗？\n诸葛亮：薛敬文，何出此无父无君之言！人生天地之间，以忠孝为立身之本。今曹操祖宗为汉臣、食汉禄，子孙不思报效，反怀篡逆之心！不是汉贼，又是什么？此等国贼，本应天下共讨之，天下共诛之。而公等身为汉臣，却在此为曹贼张目，岂不是无君无父之人？此辈不足与语，请勿复言！\n诸葛亮：我从不做寻章摘句，引经据典的学问，那是迂腐书呆子们的事情，与兴邦立业毫无关系。自古以来的大贤们，也未必治什么经典。商汤的宰相尹伊，当初不过是个耕地的奴隶，兴周的姜子牙曾作渭水垂钓之渔夫，之于后世张良、陈平之辈，皆有匡扶宇宙之才，也没听说他们治什么经典。可叹如今书生们张口经典，闭口古训，整日忙碌于笔砚之间，我看这些人恐怕只会数黑论黄（过度计较琐碎细节，死守书本教条，空谈理论），舞文弄墨而已。\n诸葛亮：既然说起儒者，可知道儒者有君子、小人之别么？君子之儒，忠君爱国，守公正，斥邪恶，既能恩泽于当世，又可流芳于后世。而小人之儒则不同，专工笔墨文章，只会雕虫小技，可谓青春作赋，皓首穷经，**笔下虽有千言，而胸中实无一策！**试看杨雄，才华横溢，修辞作赋名盖一时。然而奸臣王莽篡权，他不顾廉耻，屈膝投靠，最后落得个跳楼自杀的下场。此等小人之儒，就是日赋万言，又有什么可取之处呢？\n王朗之死\n诸葛亮：你世居东海之滨，初举孝廉入仕，理当匡君辅国，安汉兴刘，何须反助逆贼同谋篡位。罪恶深重，天地不容！\n诸葛亮：二臣贼子，你枉活七十有六，一生未立寸功，只会摇唇鼓舌，助曹为虐。一条断脊之犬，还敢在我军阵前狺狺狂吠。我，从未见过如此厚颜无耻之人。\n司马复出\n司马(昭)子上：父亲，学成文武艺，献与帝王家。而今帝王不用，还练它何来呀？\n司马仲达：一派胡言！你等年纪轻轻，一遇挫折，便松散懈怠，日后怎成大器？你等可知那司徒王朗，七十六岁还任军师出征，此正如曹公所云，老骥伏枥，志在千里，烈士暮年，壮心不已！休得放肆！\n司马仲达：我笑那王朗，虽称满腹经纶，却是鸡肠鼠肚，连几句恶语都容它不下，活该有此下场。你等要记住，为人者，有大度，成大器也！\n司马昭：父亲，赞他是你，咒他也是你，儿不知孰去孰从？\n司马仲达：夫处世之道，亦即应变之术，岂可偏执一端？用兵之道亦然如此，皆贵在随机应变。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["影视"]},{"title":"三观关系与人生动机","url":"/%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%82%E4%B8%8E%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA.html","content":"\n\n落笔写这篇文章，首先是前天增补OpenAI公司核心价值观的变动议论，昨天三两粉晚餐时间又碰到一位好利来烘焙小姐姐来深圳出差考察市场，同桌论及同行对比时，快速提到她们超然的企业文化–传递爱，brain wash的很成功。如此常见，推司及人，值得整理下。\n\n三观这个词被大家提起很多，虽然常挂在嘴上，但这几个概念都比较抽象，当你需要与人探讨时候，最好还是能分得清，拎得明比较好。为何提出三个概念，谁是鸡谁是蛋？在工作中用得着这么深刻的概念么？\n三观\n价值观:善\n我们用来 在各种可能目标中 选择自己合意目标 的准则，用以评价人、事、物的主观标准。简化点来说，就是你认为怎么做是对的（好坏对错的判断系统，哲学门类是价值论）。\n它是世界观的核心，是驱使人们行为的内部动力。\n价值观在三观中占核心地位，代际之间的价值观有差异，故价值观跟成长经历有关，重中之重是原生家庭。\n\n有人会认同知识改变命运，有人会认为这是无用论。\n有人会觉得健康很重要，有的人认为财富才是最重要的\n\n\n价值观在非个体\n价值观很多时候是一个combo体（是一组排序），多不是一个词能概括表达，如社会主义核心价值观就整了一组词。把国家比作企业的话，价值观可看作是团队共同的认知，可以是目标，也可以是结果（最佳实践的事后总结），也可以是二者的混合体 – 旨在降低内部运行管理成本。\n\n一神教强调信仰也是为了核心价值，我国宗教信仰不强但有其它核心价值在朝在野形成共识，在新中国之前是&quot;三纲五常&quot;，那是适应小农经济的核心价值。在改革开放之前，是“阶级斗争”，这是适应计划经济的核心价值。改革开放之后，适应计划经济之后，核心价值应该是“拜金主义”。\n\n价值观在个体\n个体价值观不会体现出与生活的云泥之别，源于成长经历的凝练，与生活长期撕裂的价值观个体迟早要自爆掉。价值观只有经历负面强刺激才能变动。\n个体价值观聚焦自己，不像利益共同体价值观，要求全面，会呈现出一种构型占主导，对应工作于认知系统的快速反应部分。\n\n《思考，快与慢》一书将我们的认知系统划分为两个部分\n\n系统1：反应快速，依赖直觉，几乎不需要我们努力就能完成任务\n系统2：懒惰，工作起来需要我们集中注意力，但它理性，精确\n\n\n从心理学家谢洛姆·施瓦茨（Shalon Schwartz）的角度，其拆分了10种价值观，可以借他的角度理解一下不同人群的特征。\n\n\n\n价值观\n界定\n\n\n\n\n成就\n符合社会标准的个人成功（成功，能力，抱负)\n\n\n慈善\n关注周边人的状态（能帮助他人的，正直，原谅，爱情等）\n\n\n守规\n减少对社会或他人有害的行动，遵守规则（有礼貌，恭敬，节制）\n\n\n享乐主义\n为自己的快乐、取得快感满足\n\n\n权力\n取得较高社会地位或控制他人的力量（力量，权威，财富，知名度）\n\n\n安全\n在社会状况，人机关系，日常生活中追求平静与和谐（社会秩序，家人安全，健康，归属感等）\n\n\n自我取向\n独立的思考和行动（创意，好奇心，自由，独立等）\n\n\n刺激\n使人高兴或有新鲜感的事情，追求挑战（多样性，高兴，挑战等）\n\n\n传统\n尊重并遵守文化或宗教的规矩（虔诚，对传统的尊敬等）\n\n\n普遍性\n珍惜所有人类和自然，并对他们理解、宽容、感谢，尊重（重视环境，社会正义，平等，世界和平和和谐）\n\n\n\n鄙人觉得 九型人格 也能从侧面体系化的解释价值观的差异。\n\n\n\n九型人格\n行为动机\n\n\n\n\n理想崇高者（完美型）\n不能犯错\n\n\n古道热肠者（助人型）\n不能自私\n\n\n成功追求者（事业型）\n不能丢脸\n\n\n个人风格者（自我型）\n不能一样\n\n\n博学多闻者（理智型）\n不能没用\n\n\n谨慎忠诚者（疑惑型）\n不能无备\n\n\n勇于创新者（活跃型）\n不能受限\n\n\n天生领导者（领袖型）\n不能被欺\n\n\n向往和平者（和平型）\n不能孤立\n\n\n\n世界观:真\n对世界总的根本的看法 (观察，感受，体验世界的系统化结果，哲学门类是认识论)，简单点来说，你与多大的世界发生关系 。受所见所闻动态影响，今天学了一个公式，读了一本书，结交一个有智慧的朋友，都可能会丰富和扩大你的世界观。\n分两个维度\n\n广度：你去过多少地方，遇见过多少人，碰到过多少事，读过多少书？\n深度：最终直指人性，映照外部世界的本质。\n\n\n一辈子在一个地方打转的人，话题的确会比较鸡毛蒜皮，这在老一辈的身上体现的较为明显，换种角度可解释为上一辈的世界观比较小。\n\n人生观:美\n对人类生存的目的，价值和意义的看法，由价值观和世界观决定。读了那么多书，走了那么多路，你的梦想是什么，要成为怎样的人？（人生的选择和规划，哲学门类是方法论）\n人生动机\n三观概念太抽象，还需将其具象化的应用起来，才真有解读他的意义，让我们从动机论的角度来照它一照。\n内在需求：成就动机（价值观）\n\n涵盖一生，从价值观形成到走入坟墓。它的内涵是对未来成功的判断标准（七老八十回顾人生认为人生成功），一个人不限一种，占主导的影响你的选择。是一个人终身所追求的目标，也决定职业动机的出发点\n前三种在人群中是大比例，后三种是小比例\n\n分型\n\n钱\n权：组织权威，及权力（职位）\n术（专业，做自己想做的事）\n名：名气。名气有大小，名声(望)有好坏，当前的时代，名气和名声可以负相关。一个人可以名气不大，但好名声\n地位（非权力型成就，是非组织权威，威望/声誉，如族长辈）\n闲（是平衡，主妇的完美生活，可能覆盖近1/3的女性）\n\n如何识别一个人的成就动机？\n\n你身边哪些同学/朋友 混得好？\n期待的未来10/20年的生活状态，选择哪个年份量，跟被问者的年龄有关。一般人的职业顶峰年纪男的在50岁，女的到45岁，过去了就没啥上升戏了。所以加上年份不超过上面的年龄限为佳\n\n\n还可以借助对第三者或其它事件的评价，来获取他内心的标准\n\n内在需求：职业动机（职业成长动力）\n\n从入职场到退休。是一个人在职业中驱动自身成长的内在动力，界定了其职业目标。\n\n核心就一个问题，从长远角度看，人为什么工作？ 本质上取决于一个人的价值观，自然匹配上自身的成长欲望的职业是最合适的。\n分型\n\n\n权力动机\n获取权力，典型者在意运用权力本身，而非用权力所能成就的事情。对能否职位上升非常在意。\n\n\n影响力动机\n影响他人的欲望，未必在意权力获取，会很希望用自己的知识，思想，资源影响和改变他人，对是否带来影响他人的机会很在意\n\n\n亲和动机\n获取他人赞许的欲望，在意他人\n\n\n成就动机\n实现事业目标的欲望\n\n\n识别职业动机的问题\n你认为最成功的三个人是谁？ 三个就足够，多了容易实质重复。\n\n此与混的好不好语义上有差别，混的好不好可以生活工作一起谈，所以更适合成就动机\n\n成就动机和职业动机的映射矩阵\n\n\n\n成就动机\n职业动机\n\n\n\n\n权\n权力动机\n\n\n钱、术\n成就动机\n\n\n（好的）名\n亲和动机\n\n\n地位\n影响力动机\n\n\n闲\nN/A\n\n\n\n其它普遍性动机\n\n自主权：每个人都想要掌控自己的生活\n专精：每个人都希望自己在某件事情上能越做越好\n人际关系：每个人都想要归属感\n目标：都希望自己成为一个伟大群体的一员\n\n外在需求：工作动机\n\n工作动机是一个人短期的需求，除了受成就动机、职业动机影响外，还与候选人当时的境况有关\n\n排名不分先后：职业安全感（“避险”）、薪酬、福利、发展空间（个人成长）、专业对口，职位本身（尊重）、公司文化、兴趣、工作地点、交通、加班、心理安全（找老乡）、环境、出差、出国、培训、公司品牌、公司性质、上班时间、住宿、个人崇拜、找朋友、过渡、“潜伏”、户口…\n三类动机关系图\n---\ntitle: \"三类动机关系图\"\n---\ngitGraph\n   commit id:\"出生\"\n   commit id:\"价值观定型\"\n   branch \"成就动机\"\n   commit id:\"进入职场\"\n   branch \"职业动机\"\n   commit id:\"找工作\"\n   branch \"工作动机\"\n   commit id:\"工作1\"\n   checkout \"职业动机\"\n   merge \"工作动机\"\n   checkout \"工作动机\"\n   commit id:\"工作2\"\n   checkout \"职业动机\"\n   merge \"工作动机\"\n   checkout \"成就动机\"\n   merge \"职业动机\"\n   commit id:\"退休\"\n   checkout main\n   merge \"成就动机\"\n   commit id:\"挂掉\"\n商业组织的挑战\n训练人们停止聚焦于自己，开始聚焦于团队\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"世界神话体系简观","url":"/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D.html","content":"\n希腊\n特点：关系乱，必须得各论各的叫。乱的原因是什么呢？因为他们受到了埃及神话的影响，埃及神话的特点是将统治埃及的国王塑造成是天神的血脉，这是法老维持统治的根本，如果你法老和普通人婚配，那不就稀释了体内天神的血液么，所以在埃及人看来，王室就应该内部婚配。\n古希腊的贵族和城主也学习了『血统至上』的观念，所以和妻子结婚就是为了应付工作，和情人偷吃才算是找到真爱，也就不难理解后来的欧洲王室为什么有这么高的畸形率和夭折率了，一是为了证明自己高贵的血统，二是通过这个血统来维护权力。\n\n普拉图时期，他又将古希腊的爱情观发展到一个新高度，叫柏拉图式的爱情，他认为异性之间的爱情都源自于人类自身的特性，这种感情没有智慧，没有经过理性的思考，所以经受不住时间的考验。而相反同性之间的感情则要三思而行，这样的感情才能更能体现出人类的智慧。所以在当时的贵族看来，你结婚了不等于你恋爱了，你找了情人不等于你找到了真爱，但是男情人就不一般了，是最顶级的政治正确，哈哈。所以不管是希腊城主，还是罗马贵族，都有着数不清的女性伴侣，和一个代表智慧的同性伴侣，最典型的就是罗马皇帝尼禄。\n希腊神话受到了埃及神话的影响，那埃及神话就没那么乱呢，因为埃及只有一个法老，希腊却是个城邦制国家，有大量的城主，在后来不断的吞并和伐交中，天神血脉开始变得越来越混乱，越来越抽象。希腊神话就是希腊社会的翻版，所以希腊诸神也有着和人类一样的情感，一样的欲望，人类社会的苦难来自于哪？根本原因就来自于人性，所以希腊神话就呈现出一种特殊的悲剧色彩，人类只要遵循自己最自然淳朴的本性，就会无意间导致悲剧的出现，这就是我们常说的世事无常，也是希腊混乱的神话背后想表达的核心观念。\n北欧\n北欧神话同样以悲剧为核心，悲剧的体现就是诸神黄昏，从整个北欧神界诞生开始，就同时出现诸神黄昏的预言，也就是神界注定要被摧毁，整个北欧神话都是为了阻止这个诸神黄昏。但想要阻止，就要知道这个事件可能会怎么发生，那就是预言。所以北欧神话的大部分内容基本上就是主神奥丁通过和一位女性结合从而得知了一部分预言，之后再通过这个预言和另一名女性结合，生下能阻止灾难的预言之子，后来因为这个预言不太准确，所以他要再预言，再繁衍，就这样重复不断的循环，为了拯救整个神界，奥丁先后与大量女神，巨人，女巫，以及人类女性都被迫发展出了亲密的关系，但最后还是不能阻止灾难的发生。\n这就体现出了北欧神话的核心观念，宿命和悲剧。北欧包括今天的挪威、瑞典、丹麦、冰岛、以及芬兰的部分地区，这里有着极端的气候和格外频繁的自然灾害，面对无法预测的气候变化，北欧人对于自然的无力感，就逐渐塑造了他们对于命运的看法，简单来看，就是人们必然要受到自然的掌控，而因为自然的变化无常，这个掌控的结局必然是个悲剧，人要活着，但宿命是悲剧的，于是该怎么活，就成了一个关键问题。在北欧神话中有个叫英灵殿的说法，意思就是在战场上英勇牺牲的战士们，都会去到天上的英灵神殿，那里有吃不完的食物、酒水，去到这里的唯一条件就是成为战士，死在战场上，也就塑造了一种特殊的英雄文化。\n印度\n核心就是种姓制度，影响印度、尼泊尔、不丹、及东南亚的部分地区，种姓制度是作为入侵者的雅利安人为了统治印度当地的达罗毗荼人，创立的一套社会分层制度，从创立开始就解决了私有制文明的一大难题，就是凭什么你站在我头上，你凭什么是贵族。\n雅利安人说这是由天神决定，由出生决定，我知道你很急，但你先别急，每个人都有自己的社会职责。只要好好的吃苦，完成自己的职责，积攒业力，也有可能在几百年后投胎成一个高种姓的人。雅利安人为达利特留下一个上升方法，但这个方法却是投胎。印度历史上不少刹帝利都通过武力把自己变成了婆罗门，有不少吠舍通过捐赠把自己变成了婆罗门，这些人都没有好好投胎，凭什么就能成为高种姓？雅利安人又搞出一个苦修的概念。在印度神话中，如果一个人能狠狠的苦修，那就可能得到主神的赐福，或者得到诅咒他人的能力，从而在今生成为更高的种姓，所以人家不是没有经过投胎，而是经过了狠狠的苦修。怎么苦修才能得到赐福呢，那就是婆罗门说了算了。所以侵略者可以通过苦修的缺口，得到高种姓，然后再手牵手一起来统治达利特。\n种姓制度的巧妙，不在于他的理论，而是在于这个社会分层的制度，种姓内部还要相互竞争，按照地域按照职位还有3000 多个次种姓，内部还有大量的歧视，只有同种姓之间才会有竞争，根本就不可能联合起来。\n日本\n日本神话受到中国的影响，日本最早的神话古籍《日本书纪》和《古事记》基本都是用汉字编写。日本神话从创立之初，就背负一项重要任务，就是将日本所有神灵和信仰全都融合起来，然后再说明天皇对这些神灵有绝对的统治权。\n日本神话有两大特点：第一个是八百万神，日本神话几乎每时每刻都在造神，任何事件都可以造神，哭、吐、拉都能造神，真是映照了这个国度崇尚生育的观念（古代日本朝廷为了增加人口，就鼓励男子在夜晚主动爬进女子闺房，为提升人口事业添砖加瓦）。第二个特点是君权神授，天皇的本意是将自己塑造成神的化身，再以此掌控人间的实权。结果搞得不伦不类，天皇成直接下凡的天帝，二战结束还要颁布一个《人间宣言》，也是离谱。\n待读参考\n1.gcores.com 世界神话体系大盘点 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"业务思维","url":"/%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n业务思维\n\n一种解决问题的思维方式，需要考虑的更加全面。相较于产品思维，更锚定于长链条服务，少一些打造的味道（成瘾性产品的打造甚至贯穿有针对人性不完美的利用挖掘）。换句话说，业务思维就是我要解决问题\n\n结果导向\n\n我需要的结果如何衡量，如何达成？\n达成这个结果需如何拆解指标，建立什么机制进行追踪？\n\n全局思维\n\n市场需要什么？\n我的关系和资源\n我的客户是谁，我解决了什么痛点，他们为什么付钱？\n我需要什么平台能力，谁来帮我开发？\n需要哪些流程，标准化什么动作，构建什么运营机制？\n\n\n成本思维\n\n\n我的成本结构，盈利模式是什么？\n\n\n如何提升效率？\n\n\n业务理解\n\n先对业务产生兴趣，好奇心是所有学习推动的动力\n了解业务运作逻辑：从组织架构，角色分工，业务流程开始\n理解业务核心指标，达成路径\n\n打造产品路上的陷阱\npie title top10创业陷阱\n   \"做自嗨之物 building something nobody wants\": 300\n   \"雇人抠唆 hiring poorly \": 153\n   \"不专注 Lack of focus\" : 112\n   \"营销失败 Fail to execute sales & marketing\":98\n   \"合伙内讧 Not having the right co-founders\":66\n   \"迷失客户 Chasing investors,not customers\":45\n   \"现金枯竭 Not making sure you have enough money\":28\n   \"花钱太快 Spending too much money\":18\n   \"孤立无援 Failing to ask for help\":12\n   \"忽略媒体 Ingoring social media\":6\n\n参照于 领英一篇文章 Top 10 Startup Mistakes\n\n结语\n回到技术人员身份，不论想成为哪层架构师，架构师同学都需要更全面的学习，深入的思考，模型化思考业务和系统的运作，以在专业道路上持续提升，做出更多成绩实现自我价值\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"东亚未发展有魅力的生活方式","url":"/%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E6%9C%AA%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%89%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n以不在东亚圈却同属汉文化圈的新加坡做例：新加坡虽然富，但没有打造出一种令人神往的生活方式。\n欧洲\n欧洲以瑞士为代表，不仅是富裕，也是一种生活方式，景色美，铁路房屋景点融合很好，工作强度也低，生活氛围轻松，这就对在东亚高强度生活的人产生了吸引力，若中国以后发展到瑞士的水平，相信大家都是高兴的。\n\n北美和澳洲\n北美、澳洲也不仅仅是富裕，也是一种生活方式。广袤的领土，宽阔的道路，大house，不用一家人生活在逼仄的空间。从纽约的种族熔炉，到各种体育赛事，好莱坞、休斯顿、迈阿密、拉斯维加斯，环球影城，迪士尼，也是有各种不同的生活方式\n东亚文明区\n东亚文明的地区从农村到城市是有一个跃升，但城市化后，发展出的特色并不令人神往：\n\n地狱高考，大公司垄断优质工作机会\n996高强度\n高房价，公寓楼，人口密度高度集中\n\n\n日韩新，港澳台人均是中国大陆几倍，但觉得和北上深没什么太大区别，不是一种新风格，仅是收入水平的提高而已。\n更有甚者，东亚发达地区都有明显的老人工作现象，餐厅，出租车等，前景比中国大陆还要糟糕，内地老人还可以跳广场舞。\n结语\n\n成都连续 15 年蝉联中国最具幸福感城市榜首，人文气息与市井气息交织，一半诗意一半烟火，一直是这座城市独特的生活美学。\n\n生活方式有其魅力，同在国内，成都，长沙，三亚，大理丽江就对游客有吸引力，同在欧洲，巴黎吸引力就更强。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"东亚英语发音差异","url":"/%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD%E5%8F%91%E9%9F%B3%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n一则笑话开头：\n日本人：Are you ready？（r u lady）英国人：I’m a man\n随着各类电影及视频类节目的增多，大家都了解到我们的东亚邻居，在英语表达上好似很不正宗，这成为了一个很有意思的问题，值得探究一下\n原因简究\n简略看了几则说法，大致有两大原因，外来词干扰和发音体系的不匹配，第二项则是根本原因\n日常外来词的干扰\n在中文中英语外来词汇是专造的，不像日韩外来词直接尝试用本国发音来模拟，本国发音体系又不够丰富，导致蹩脚的发音过早荼毒国民或小孩子，在学习正式的英语时，反倒需费力纠正，得不偿失。中国人学习英语时，绝对不会用纯中式发音来念词（咖啡，沙发，威士忌，引擎），而日本人如果不是意识到自己必须要说‘正宗’英文了（电视台主播去采访外国人），他们都懒得切换成英式发音。\n在日本这种社会中，你显摆正宗发音，真会被周围的人鄙视，所以他们更喜欢随大流演绎蹩脚的风格\n发音体系的不匹配\n\n另外，中文的发音系统中，有23种辅音（声母表），英文中有24种，数量不是最重要的，关键是它们的发音非常像。例如吃（chi）和教堂（church）的ch发音是很像的。这使得英文中的辅音相对中国学生来说更简单。\n\n声母和辅音是两个不同的概念，声母是从分析音节结构的角度划分出来的，辅音是从分析音素（辅音+元音）性质的角度提出来的。与元音相比，辅音的主要特征是：气流在发音器官中受到一定程度的阻碍或阻塞，发音器官参与节制气流的部分肌肉紧张。\n声母是由辅音充当的，但辅音并不都是声母。如光这个音节中的ang中的ng，单看的话是辅音，但它不是声母。\n闭音节（又称急煞音节）：以一个或几个辅音字母（r除外）结尾而中间只有一个元音音素的音节。闭音节结构可分为元音+辅音，元音+辅音+辅音\n\n看看韩语\n韩语中只有19种辅音，欠缺f、sh、v、ch、tr 这些辅音发音，除去这些，韩语中L、R两个发音用一个字母标记代替，使得其发音经常混淆。例如call能发生car的音，呜呼哀哉，导致他们在学习英语时有些懵逼。\n日语更加夸张\n日语也缺少了几个重要的辅音发音，例如f、sh、v，跟韩语一样，只有一种辅音发音来同时标注L和R的发音。\n可能不那么准确地简单点来说，日语没有r这个音，也没有ŋ这个鼻音，导致他们把road念成lo-do，把timing念成taimingu\n加之他们的语言中都是元音结尾的绝对开音节，没有辅音结尾的闭音节，从而导致他们会把set念成seto，big念成bigu\n其实现代汉语普通话也没有辅音结尾的闭音节（这句话存疑，很多韵母也符合辅音结尾，也符合闭音节结构），这点大家是难兄难弟，但是中国方言众多，在保留入声的诸多南方方言里就有闭音节，例如粤语就保留了p-t-k结尾的入声\n最后日语里没有卷舌音，也就是∫、t∫、ʒ、dʒ这种，导致他们把she念成xi，shadow念成syadou\n普通话有卷舌音，不过发音方式跟英语不完全一样，相比日文还是更接近英语的发音，毕竟有和没有还是很大差别。\n普通话也不是无缺憾\n其余一些发音缺陷，汉语普通话也有，例如普通话里没有æ，中国会把rap更容易念成rua普，而日本人会念成拉普。念成拉普是因为没有r，没有æ，没有闭音节辅音p只有pu这个元音结尾。念成rua普，是因为有r，没有æ，没有闭音节辅音p，只有pu这个元音结尾\n黏着语，屈折语，孤立语\n从语言学上分类不止这三位，但这三位是主流代表。屈折语代表是印欧语系诸语言；黏着语代表土耳其语，日语，韩语，维吾尔语；孤立语（分析语）的代表就是我们的汉语，受汉语影响最深的越南语也是。\n\n咱们汉语中的词序要求严格，没有词形（格）的变化，虚词十分重要；\n\n\n屈折语中通过（词根的）词形变化（时态，所有格，复数…）来区分不同的发音，继而表示不同的意义；\n\n\n黏着语词的前面和中间（是重心）不发生变化，只是词的尾部发生变化来表示不同意义（中间也有一些胶水助词）。\n\n英语虽然是曲折语，但是在被外来民族统治的过程中（受到 盖尔语–凯尔特人：乡村土著，古北欧语–维京海盗：沿海城市贸易据点，法语–征服者：上层社会 的巨大洗刷，虽然都是屈折语，但屈折方式差别太大，混合后屈折变简单 ），也杂具了很多孤立语的特性，如很多副词，of，about，所有格只剩了一个‘s，动词变位简化太多，取消了名词和形容词的性。相较而言，俄语，德语的屈折语特征更明显（事态，格，性，令人炫目）。也可以说屈折语是语法最复杂的，孤立语最为简单，所以受众面影响力最大，历史上兼容并包能力最强，历史也是佐证。\n汉语其实也有屈折语的一些特征，如登/升，开/启 都是主宾时的不同用字，历史上起始发音也是一点点区别；有些方言用一个鼻辅音表示小称，用声调变化表示完成体。黏着语的特征也有，如“了，着，过”这些语法标记，名词出现“子，儿，头”这些词缀。可谓没有绝对的形式，只是何为主体。\n为何有这些差别？个人浅薄的看法如下\n\n汉语的特立独行，与汉字有莫大的关系，世界上表意的文字，我们是一大家，其余的语言几乎都是拼音文字。\n在靠发音来进行意义说明的时候，必然要在读音上做很多变化。印欧片区的主导祖先，选择词的变化来促成发音变化准确传递意思。黏着语的主导祖先们，选择主体不动，在尾部叠加修饰来使得句子发音不同传递意思。\n你把你想成猩猩，哼哼哈嘿外加手势比划，有的动脑筋在面部扭曲上，阴阳怪调的扭曲发音。有的选择主发音不动，多加一些动作+哼哈在后面。一个把句子雕塑整容，一个把句子整长。\n\n表意字的优势过于强大（只有汉字，才能维持住大一统的历史和文化传承），孤立语为了适配文字，四声八调。\n随着游牧民族的融合，发音体系简化了，太多同音字，那么就要相较于古代汉语多出一些双字词，成语；\n配合简化的声调，加上增多的副词，仍能应对无论多么复杂的情况。\n现代的计算机语言也是一种分析语，用有限的指令互相搭配，忽略了指令的形式变化。这也是孤立语的生命力的趋势。\n兼聊一下我国的外语翻译\n通常翻译的准则\n专有名词（人名，地名）是要按照当地语言音译（个别因为历史传统的除外），大陆的翻译一直都是追本溯源派，这点上大家要有自信\nParis：巴黎（法语音译，要不就要念巴里斯）Rome:罗马（意大利语是Roma，音译为罗马）Germany：德国（从德语Deutschland音译的）Belarus：白俄罗斯（既是音译，也是意译）Greece: 希腊，希腊语音译的。Greece来自于拉丁语GraeciaTrump 特朗普，是因为它原本是德国姓，德语发音译过来就是特朗普，用英语确实是川普\nCaesar 翻译成凯撒（迦太基语大象的意思），而不是西撒。是因为我们是以拉丁文发音来翻译的（罗马音）。说个不一定那么准确的原因，中国因为贸易原因，接触西方文化比较早, 音译一直是以罗马音为基础的，再看两个差异例子，约翰/乔恩，德拉贡/拽根，是否觉得唾沫星子更有文化\n\n顺便说一下，尤利乌斯而非朱利乌斯是正确发音，古典拉丁没有j，只有iulius，后来有了j也发y的音\n\n我们的东亚邻居日本直到很晚也只能接触到大明和朝鲜，最早接触的西方文化是大英帝国，所以他们的舶来语是以英语为基础的，香港的殖民地身份也使得他们会以英语原声为基础进行音译，和大陆也不是一个音译体系\n英文与拉丁文的发音差异\n欧洲各国都对拉丁语的发音依照本国的发音规则做了演化，这也是我们看到一些翻译冲突的原因，当然拉丁文在种族冲撞的过程中，在吸收外来词的过程中，自己也发生了一些变化，太细节了，我也不是学语言的，去搬运解释搞复杂了，过犹不及。\n英文发音规则的一大特色是喜欢把辅音c（拉丁语中是/k/）软化为/s/，语言的软化是种族融合的常见特征，正所谓稀释。\n另一大特色是喜欢把重读的长元音发成单元音，例如双元音ae，在拉丁语中读音是/a/和/e/的组合，类似于英语lie的元音，但在英语特色的拉丁语发音中，重读的开音节ae，oe几乎都发了/i:/的音，例如Caesar，Oedipus（俄狄浦斯） /'i:-dɪ-pəs/，其实按照英文读音翻成“伊迪普斯”就和原来的读音相差太远了。类似的Pompey，在英文里读POMP-ee，但中文翻译“庞培”更加接近拉丁文的正确读音\n\n现代英语对拉丁语的读音有两套规则，在读拉丁语名言或短语时，通常用古典语音，\n但在读人名地名时，还是用传统的英语读音，个中原因还是因为使用频率太高\n\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["地理","语言"]},{"title":"中台的林子好热闹","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9E%97%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%BD%E7%83%AD%E9%97%B9.html","content":"\n中台战略\n10年之前，没人讲中台。第一次见到在电商行业的企业中，以前只讲前后台，讲平台，冒出来个中台几个意思。\n其实和平台化管理没什么区别。强调的是组织不断的业务/技术沉淀，比平台多讲一个敏捷（可运营），平台这个词历史包袱重，大家很讲边界。\n中台能力框架\n\n\n个人觉得能力聚合层提法奇怪，其实也就是小业务前台的一部分，非要用一些大词概念-编排，编排已经差不多成了容器化的云平台的专用词汇了\n\n大公司下的蛋\n没见小公司讲中台，大公司讲这个问题的动机是什么？\n组织是否存在重复建设和资源浪费？重复功能建设和维护带来重复投资，不利于业务的沉淀和持续发展，技术团队扩张增长不经济\nSo：如何沉淀企业核心竞争能力，更好的支撑新业务的发展？表面是系统，实际是业务能力被沉淀。\n怎么火起来的？\n\n悔创阿里JackMa，从他嘴里带出的新词\n\n2015年，jackma带领阿里众高管拜访芬兰移动游戏公司supercell，让其惊讶的是，创造税前利润15亿美元的公司只有不到200名员工（人均利润¥5000w，$750w）。其公司的系统支持小团队快速研发游戏，快速试错。被震撼，阿里就开始奔这个方向上去了。\n各说各话，大道至简\n\n都有自己的认识和宣传，如前所言，另一种平台化建设策略\n比较同意thoughtworks一位同行的话：多数公司将前台和后台形容为两个转速不相协调的齿轮。一个要快速响应用户需求，一个要稳定至上。中台的功能，是将企业的核心能力，数据，用户信息以共享服务的形式加以沉淀，从而解决业务部门造轮子的问题，企业能力复用，降低创新成本。\n\n让上游/用户自助，缩短TTM（Time To Market），同时能快速响应变化。最后的一句愿景是好的，但大公司中台发展到后期也难免越来越僵化不适应业务发展。\n\n中台的核心价值就是业务价值驱动（多渠道数据共享，人效比提高），在互联网企业热度高（打破原来烟囱林立的系统和组织边界）。整合后才有更大范围IT变革的可能。\n始作俑者怎么讲中台\n阿里官方的企业中台定义：将企业核心能力随业务不断发展以数字化形式沉淀到平台，形成以服务为中心，由业务中台和数据中台构建起数据闭环运转的运营体系，供企业更高效的进行业务探索和创新，实现以数字化资产的形态构建企业核心差异化竞争力。\n\n通过数据统一治理和应用，给业务带来数据驱动的运营能力的提升。\n通过解决信息获取成本高，系统互联互通成本高的问题，给企业带来组织效率的提升。\n\n太阳底下没有新鲜事\n\n海尔10年前支持客户服务的体系，也是一种组织中台\n华为的大平台炮火支撑精兵作战，也是说这档子事\n\n具体的好处\n\n在高确定性和高通用性场景下能创造增量价值\n提高需求-研发上线-效果复盘各环节效率，减少重复建设投入的人力和时间成本\n\n\n低研发成本上线\n提升业务稳定性：产品差异不大的领域，集中研发运维获得更高的业务稳定性，RD角色通过更多的场景加速打磨设计，聚合流量加速积累\n能力跨BU复制\n统一数据资产\n集团层次的资源高效利用\n\n补充的解读\n\n\n数据规模的变化驱动了平台化向中台化演进，它不是系统的演进\n\n\n中台是腰部力量，要有一个好腰。但腰部力量的打造经常又处在不紧急的地位，重要不紧急，这就需要战略定力\n\n\n不存在超前的完美设计为未来不断创造价值，中台在业务起初产生最大的价值，其后逐渐衰减，因为一个健康的行业中需求是永远进化的\n\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["架构"]},{"title":"中国国民性演变历程书摘","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%9B%BD%E6%B0%91%E6%80%A7%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98%E5%8E%86%E7%A8%8B%E4%B9%A6%E6%91%98.html","content":"\n初始发表于2014.05.19\n\n\n\n增补于2020.10.19，阅读了近代的一些名人传记后，包括作者写的曾国藩，自觉作者本书对于近代来临的感触是过于学者化了，中华文化确实精华糟粕是一样多，没有这些糟粕也不成为屹立于民族之林之中华。但主体读后感写的较早，忠实记录，不加新评断。\n\n国民性演变概述\n古代中国和后来的中国人，似乎是两个物种。从春秋到唐宋，再到明清。国人的性格历程仿佛直落的三叠瀑布。\n左传里记载的中国人性格上的活力和倔强，显得有普遍的审美张力，惹得他国研究者钦佩，后来则越来越猥琐。\n源头的中国人，品格清澈，唐宋时雍容文雅，明清时品质却大幅劣化，麻木懦弱，创造力大减。\n\n若比作黄河，先秦是上游，清澈见底。\n汉唐是中游，虽泥沙俱下，毕竟有波涛汹涌之雄大气象\n明清是下游，经常断流，奄奄一息\n\n\n书中观点的意思是这些与顶层制度变化引导有很大关系，底层屁民在性格品质下滑过程中没能抗拒突围成功，真真实实连历史的注脚都算不上。\n\n\n春秋时代\n贵族精神及其散落民间\n先秦是贵族文化，贵族嘛，要有贵族的范儿：\n\n贵族首要标志是&quot;礼&quot;（俗点讲就是要优雅）\n勇敢。上古贵族都是武士，春秋时代，整个贵族阶级均匀执戈披甲为荣，冲锋陷阵为乐。\n重视荣誉，敢于承担。贵族不仅仅意味特权，但权力也意味着责任。（贵族生活是荣誉的，奴隶生活是牟利的）。\n\n贵族精神之所以宝贵，是因为勇敢，尊严，优雅，荣誉心等品性的成长和发育非一朝一夕之功，产生和完善，像酿酒，要一个个代代承继，陈陈相因的漫长过程。\n上层社会中，礼如空气一样无所不在，就如同今天的钱无所不在一样。甚至在战场上，也要遵守战争礼。春秋时的车战，是一种贵族式的战争，有时彼此都以竞技的方式看待，布阵有一定的程序，交战也有公认的原则，也就是离不开礼的约束。\n礼崩乐坏与士文化萌生\n当然，礼与百家争鸣的文化的绚烂貌似是冲突的。西周后期，分封井然的大一统制度因血缘关系淡薄及中央与地方的实力变化，礼崩乐坏，社会控制&amp;身份禁锢都弱化，所有层级的人都可以随意用脚投票（迁徙），人的精神首次空前发展。\n这要归功于多级的政治格局和激烈竞争的社会环境(同时使各国统治者急于延揽人才)。当时夏商周留下来的典籍不再是贵族的专利，普通人也有机会接受教育，进行精神上的探索。首先演变出来的“士文化”，其实是贵族文化的一种延续（虽然上层政治杀伐暴戾，贵族开始堕落），当人们能用本领为资本，主宰命运，第一次体验到自主的欢欣和自由的快乐，也就特别强调精神的自由和人格的独立。\n追求绝对的精神自由，是春战时期知识分子的重要特征。\n民风及文化\n争雄竞长，几乎都强悍好战\n东方大国齐，民风强悍，百姓都是急性子，倔脾气，和今天韩国人差不多，贵族经常在路上驾车相撞。今天吴侬软语的吴越地区，在先秦时代也是一片气质刚劲的地盘，《淮南子》中曰：越王好勇，而民皆处危争死。春秋时代，贵族各个下马能文，上马能武，侠客遍地，武士横行，一言不合，就拔剑相斗，那时的中国人，不喜弱不禁风的书生，不论男女，皆以高大健硕为美。故《诗经·卫风·硕人》言卫庄公夫人庄姜之美，必先言“硕人其颀（qí，身子长）”。\n天真烂漫心无杂念\n高远纯净可见诸诗三百，诗经里充满生命的欢欣，野性，活力，大自然和美。\n先秦时代，中国人吃饭酒酣耳热后常离席跳上一段，直到汉代，载歌载舞仍是国人的拿手好戏，汉代宴会，常以舞想属（就是说吃高兴了，主人先跳上一段，罢了，一位客人站起来接着跳，客人接着循环一圈，才算尽兴）。\n\n高晓松说汉人音乐细胞差，在更远的时代里，汉族人还是挺奔放乐活的。\n\n侠客灿烂\n春秋时代，侠人义士救危扶困，知恩必报，受恩之托一诺千金。赵氏孤儿，荆轲刺秦，演绎了那个时候男人们的壮烈与决绝，告诉后代什么叫轻生重义，生死相许。\n春秋时代侠客，最大特点是极端重视人格的独立平等，如同珍视眼珠一样珍视自己的个人尊严，对平等二字珍视甚至到了敏感的程度。\n\n孟尝君曾待客夜食，有一人蔽火光。客怒，以饭不等（有个人遮住了灯亮。那个宾客很恼火，认为饭食的质量肯定不相等），辍食辞去。”孟尝君起，自持其饭比之。客惭，自刭（自杀了，oh my lady gaga）。\n\n即使在座位安排这样的小事上，他们也不能容忍任何的不平等。乃至明清，侠客们却自愿攀附权力。春秋时侠客们只听命于自己的良心，而《三侠五义》中侠客却自称罪名，以向权力规则屈服为荣。\n\n如鲁迅所言，春秋时侠客，以死为终极目的，结局确实是一个个慷慨赴死，而清代小说中的侠客，却个个成为地主官僚，黑白两道都吃得开。\n\n如三侠五义所写，双侠丁兆兰，丁兆蕙家广有田产，实乃豪绅，五鼠则是陷空岛渔霸。\n当历史迈进帝制\n皇帝终结贵族\n春秋战国时代的绚烂风格，被一个叫嬴政的人挥剑斩断。\n秦始皇的过错不在于他统一天下，也不在于他修长城，而在于他建立了皇帝制度。皇帝制度是天底下最自私的制度。这种统治制度的根本特征是，皇帝不是为国家而存在，相反，**国家是为皇帝而存在。**皇帝一个人的意志大于所有臣民意志的总和。**皇帝制度的出现，意味着贵族社会的终结，帝制之前，贵族地位来自血统，不来自恩赐，对最高权力形成制约。而后两千年，国人一直在“做稳了奴隶”和“求做奴隶而不得”的了无新意的一治一乱中挣扎。奴隶性格和专制性格逐渐发展成民族性格中相辅相成的两个突出特征。**从这个意义上说，国民性劣化的第一推手是秦始皇。\n楚汉之争，平民上台\n始皇帝之后，社会发展的一条主线就是贫困文化或底层文化日益取代贵族文化。秦代末期的楚汉之争，就是底层文化战胜贵族文化的第一例。其结果就是平民第一次登上历史舞台的中心位置，并且把底层气质注入到最高政治中。乌江之战的结果说明了项羽身上难以化解的贵族精神。在恶化的生存环境中，贵族精神和流氓精神斗争，当然后者更有竞争力。\n淳朴未泯的汉人\n霸王道杂之\n帝制这个新型政治怪物在诞生之初毕竟不够完美，始皇父子政治风格过于率真，以为暴力可以解决一切。秦的瞬间崩盘给后来的统治者树立了反面样板，两大教训：\n\n吸食天下不能太急；\n私心私欲不能直接昭然于众，须加伪装。\n\n**儒家学说被选做门面工程，让老百姓相信，皇帝是为他们服务的。秦始皇浇筑房屋骨架，汉代的最大发明是抓意识形态建设，对房屋进行装修。**汉王朝的统治秘诀就是霸王道杂之，表面是孔子的王道，实际上是秦始皇的霸道。专用王道，肯定翻车。焚书坑儒是诛身，独尊儒术是诛心。这一招对后世的影响之深远，只有帝制和隋炀帝发明科举制可相仿。\n知识分子残存春秋之风\n被统治阶级作为工具的孔孟之道，诞生之际并不像后来那般充满奴性，而是有着刚健清新的一面，春秋士人每以君王师友自居，将自己所学之道，凌驾于权势之上，合则留，不合则去。孔子周游列国，不留恋高官厚禄，不屈服政治权威，只为推行自己的政治主张，孟子远比孔子个性更锋芒毕露，性格外向，感情丰富，行事张扬。\n到汉代，知识分子性格与先秦发生明显变化，因儒家大学成为高官，搞儒学自然渐多，但因只允许一种方式思考，大家都迷信教条，孔子成了顶峰，大家不敢越雷池一步。但毕竟汉代去古不远，风气未凿，独尊儒术的更明确精致有效的控制知识分子的技术-科举制还没发明出来，政府所能控制的，只是一小部分入仕的知识分子。汉代知识分子汉残存春秋之风：单纯朴直，好面子。汉代政治一个引人瞩目的现象，官员的高自杀率。官员获罪，都多会选择自裁，免受小吏之辱。东汉的读书人还闹学潮。\n尚武率直\n另外，汉代仍然尚武。对人体美的欣赏可体现一个社会的价值取向。汉代人眼中，男性美集中在胡须浓密，身形高大，肌肉有力等最能体现男性第二性征和力量感的方面。女性美的一个条件也是身材高挑丰满，出土的汉代画像资料上贵族妇女大多身形高大丰腴。画像砖石上，较力比武是常见的内容，汉人率直粗朴，男女关系通达。汉代男女可一同宴饮，结伴同路同车。女子能单独会见男宾，妇女改嫁是家常便饭。\n魏晋风流\n乱世世族\n从汉至唐，中国人身上一直保持着尚武，通达，开放的雄性气质。这个面貌是由当时的社会结构背景决定的。从汉到唐，中国是士族社会，这种社会与先秦贵族社会还有一定相似之处，这是强大的历史惯性决定的，虽然汉是第一个平民建立的王朝，但还不能一步跨入平民社会。\n秦始皇当初全力打击贵族，打击大户，建立平民社会。**通过立法的形式，要求“民有二男以上而不分异者，倍其赋”，以使富家大族迅速原子化，不再任用贵族当官，而是训练大批技术型官员，任免权抓在自己手里。**秦始皇背离传统的高速急转弯，终于导致秦朝翻车。\n**汉代吸取教训，不得不从法家激进主义立场上，一定程度退回先秦社会传统。只是做的没那么激进而已，也是受条件不成熟限制（无法进行大规模考试），汉代使用荐举制，使得贵族社会借此还魂。地方官员们在察举人才时，自然以民门大族为先，这样导致官位被上层社会垄断，造成了几乎变相世袭的特点。**直到唐代，门阀观念依然盛行，虽然隋就发明了科举制，但科举直到宋代才成为最主要的选官方式，因为李世民就有浓厚的门阀情结。\n从汉到唐，中国社会兼具平民社会和贵族社会的双重面貌**。**\n\n专制集权的郡县制国家，体制上讲，官位由皇帝任命。\n荐举制导致皇帝和平民间，又恢复了一个类似贵族的稳定强大的士族阶层。士族中选拔人才，靠的主要不是官员政客权力交易，而是家族声望。\n\n一个大门第，决非全赖外在权势与财力，而能保泰持盈数百年之久。文化和教育在家族里必然很重要。这也是魏晋风流不可忽视的文化背景。魏晋人士纵性任情，饮酒啸歌，风度被后人追慕。如果说士族社会中的汉、唐更像贵族社会的西周，整饬有序，礼乐辉煌，文化雍容大度，那么魏晋就像贵族时代的春秋战国，是一个个性才情得以充分展示因此极富创造力的时代。\n之所以如此，因为魏晋社会背景与那个年代高度相似。**魏晋南北朝是一个大动荡，大变革的时期。**三国鼎立之后，接着就是司马氏建西晋，新王朝未稳，就爆发八王之乱。永嘉之后，北方陷入十六国割据，江左出现东晋政权。淝水之战后，南北对峙局面正式形成。其后则是南北朝政权不断更迭。\n权威崩溃，性情释放\n**与皇权不稳定形成鲜明对比的，是世家大族的稳定。**门第高贵的士人，甚至对门第不如他久远的皇帝报以一种睥睨之态，许多人甚至不屑于为皇帝服务。政治权威的崩溃，意味着儒学也不再是唯一的价值体系，魏晋士人对庄子和佛学的兴趣头一次超过儒家经典，导致了玄学的兴起。\n哲学是非功利的产物。魏晋士人的时髦活动“清谈&quot;，激烈辩论人究竟该怎样活才算快乐，究竟什么样的人格才是最理想，最完美，如何协调个体和社会。思考的结论是，人生意义不在于一时一事的物质得失，也不在于把活生生的生命做僵硬的伦理教条的注解，而是在于心的自在，真性情的释放，竹林七贤就是这股思潮的代表，强调一个真字。魏晋南北朝，在中国政治史的一个衰落时代，确实中国艺术史的无比辉煌的时代，与书法一样，绘画，文学，音乐舞蹈雕塑等都出现了突破性发展。王羲之不用说了，顾恺之，陆探微绘画史划时代的大家，文学史第一次出现山水田园诗，音乐领域，诞生了广陵散这样直指内心的千古绝唱。\n大唐的雄健阳光\n女权空前绝后\n对比近代的中国女装，唐代就是另一个世界。在唐人那里，性还没有变成要遮掩的罪过，没发明出那么多莫名其妙的清规戒律，离婚改嫁家常便饭。\n\n唐肃宗之前的唐代公主，再嫁者达23人之多，三嫁则有3人。&lt;古今图书集成&gt;所列烈女节妇，宋代267人，明代达到36000人，唐代只有51人。\n\n唐代上层社会，对性更是持宽容甚至放纵的态度。文人狎妓是公开的时尚，李白不说了，白居易这样的高级领导也公然养妓。后世所谓脏唐臭汉，指的就是唐代上层社会的淫乱之风。武则天养面首，唐中宗的韦后先后与几个人私通，太宗女儿高阳公主嫌一个老公不够玩，还跑外面找和尚道士，为补偿，找两个美女供老公享用。还有其它公主纵欲的记载，简直乱到不行。唐代女权意识空前绝后，产生一系列弄权的宫廷女性，更产生了唯一的女皇帝。唐代小说里甚至有不少女侠，与其它朝代里国人喜欢的女性形象大异其趣。\n胡气恰到好处\n唐代种种与众不同，因为汉族文化中优质健康成熟的部分，与北方少数民族天真刚劲开阔地气质的偶然结合。催生独一无二的自然丰盛灿烂，是中国人最自信，放松，自由的时代。唐太宗至多有十六分之三的汉人血统，高宗只有三十二分之三。少数民族做皇帝，唐代并非空前绝后。但是唐代**与元代、清代完全不同的是，唐代皇帝的少数民族血统是隐蔽的。盖古人观念之中，父亲提供了全部的遗传基因，母亲只提供了血液营养而已。所以在社会心理上，唐代帝王从来没有被当作少数民族看待。**这是隋唐与元朝和清朝至关重要的区别。唐代皇帝既不必像元代与清代皇帝那样，对汉民族及汉文化抱着恐惧提防心理，同时又拥有根植于少数民族血液的蓬勃生命力，因而也就造就了他们博大开阔的胸怀与视野。正如陈寅恪所说：“李唐一族之所以崛起，盖取塞外野蛮精悍之血，注入中原文化颓废之躯。旧染既除，新机重启，扩大恢张，遂能别创空前之伟业。”\n这种“胡气”使唐初诸帝有着海纳百川兼容并包的心态。\n文弱之宋\n唐宋对比(热烈vs内敛)\n唐代女人外向泼辣，宋代妇女却内敛柔和。唐代女人喜欢骑着高头大马招摇过市，宋代妇女却只能站在重重帷帘之后，掀起一角向外悄悄张望一下。唐代妇女可以和男人一样，大呼大叫地参加集体体育运动，宋代妇女却裹起了三寸金莲，讲究起行不动裙，笑不露齿。唐代妇女以丰肥壮硕为美，而宋代追求瘦弱和病态，如张子野的《菩萨蛮》中所描写的那样：“轻怯瘦腰身，纱窗病起人。”唐人粗豪，宋人细腻。凡是唐代的事物，无一不博大恢宏，健硕丰盛。而宋代文物的风格则细腻而文雅。\n唐人热烈，宋人内敛。唐人喜欢画骏马、苍鹰和牡丹。这几种热烈、奔放、大气的意象正抒发了唐人性格中的慷慨和雄健，宋代的文人画家却偏爱画梅兰竹菊，它们独处山中，低调含蓄，幽冷寂寞。唐瓷大气，宋瓷精致。唐瓷以雍容自然而取胜，宋瓷则精致而谨慎。小山富士夫说：“唐瓷华贵，宋瓷纯净，明清瓷器精细俗艳。”宋瓷或为纯白、漆黑，或为清澈无垢的青白，或为幽玄深邃的粉青。与大气粗朴的唐瓷相比，它简洁清秀，反映出宋人细腻内向的心理性格。唐诗热烈，宋诗沉思。唐人笔下的边塞壮丽无比：“秦时明月汉时关，万里长征人未还。但使龙城飞将在，不教胡马度阴山。”对比之下，宋代为数不多的边塞诗词中最有名的那一句范仲淹的“浊酒一杯家万里，燕然未勒归无计，羌管悠悠霜满地”，读起来是那么的凄凉。如果说唐诗体现的是少年精神，那么宋诗则充满了中年人的冷静和沉思。\n总结来说，唐宋时代，中国人在思想上的原创力不再，但是文学艺术方面的创造力却突然勃发。唐诗展示了前所未有的艺术生命力，精神蓬勃，气象光辉。其风格或者高昂明朗，或者雄浑壮大，或者具“清水出芙蓉”的自然之美。宋词则为中国人表达情感开辟了新天地，其清新婉约和生活化更胜唐诗一筹。\n乱世后遗症，重文轻武\n这一切源于宋代统治者对武器的深深恐惧。从开元盛世后到宋朝建立的二百二十年，中国都是在打打杀杀中度过的：先是生灵涂炭的安史之乱，然后是动荡不安的藩镇割据，后来又是乱成一团麻的五代十国。篡弑和兵变是五代十国的主旋律，每个政治人物的辉煌都不过是昙花一现。武人统治的时代，人人都朝不保夕，不但老百姓流离失所，连皇帝都是高危的职业。枪杆子决定一切的世界，实在太让人绝望了。费尽心机得来的荣华，转眼又成泡影。在这个世界里，没有胜利者，所有人都同归悲惨结局。以兵变从孤儿寡母手中夺得江山的赵匡胤不想再继续这无望的恶性循环。结束它的办法只有一个：建立新的游戏规则，让人们不再凭枪杆子，而是凭笔头子来进行竞争。因此，宋代政治设计的第一个特点是对武力的全方位防范。\n因宋统治者为了吸取前面王朝的教训，防止权力被剥夺，采取重文轻武的政策，最终使宋朝经济快速发展，教育文化发达，但是也导致宋朝是个文弱的朝代，军事老是败北，最终被马背民族打败，灭了。宋教育文化的发展也是文化平民化，世俗化，雅文化与俗文化共同发展。可惜到了元朝，蒙古族对文化的破坏，铁骑踏断了民族脊梁，最终俗文化逐渐朝暴力文化发展，典型的元时代的《水浒传》，底层崇尚暴力，假如站在当今的角度分析，里面很多英雄都是反人类的，并且是藐视女人，对女人的极大不尊重。\n丢失自信，心理扭曲\n亡国灭种的威胁，是宋代理学兴起的直接原因。它基于一种心理误区：“宋代中国人没有了自信，因此他们靠守节来获取安全感。在他内心中隐隐约约以为，只要他用强意志力谨守一些细微的行为准则，灾难好像就不会降临于他。”这种心理误区使中国知识分子从宋代开始都染上了“强迫性人格”，都成了完美主义者。他们给自己提出的标准非常高而不切实际，要求自己必须成为“圣人”，不允许自己犯哪怕最微小的错误。只有这样，他们才能获得真正的心理安全。这就是宋明理学的诞生背景。梅兰竹菊在宋代以后被称为“四君子”，这四种事物所表现的，其实都是对即将到来的严酷环境（亡国灭种的威胁，笼罩在每个宋人心头）所做的一种心理准备，为在死亡、在被征服的威胁面前坚守气节而进行的自我精神动员。\n\n孙国栋在《唐宋之际社会门第之消融》一文中说：“唐代以名族贵胄为政治、社会之中坚，五代以由军校出身之寒人为中坚，北宋则以科举上进之寒人为中坚。所以唐宋之际，实贵胄与寒人之一转换过程，亦阶级消融之一过程。深言之，实社会组织之一转换过程也。”\n\n平民社会在政治结构上的主要特点是皇权独尊。到了宋代，政治权力全归天子所有，不再有可与政府相抗衡的庞大家族，君主独裁统治正式开始。\n\n宋代宰相还有比较大的权利，皇帝相当于董事长，CEO还是宰相，这里不同意作者的讲法\n\n在平民社会，君主的个人价值取向，对国家和民族的前途命运影响更为直接。\n宋代统治者的开明、理性体现在：尊重文臣，文臣的理性和谨慎，社会管理特别是舆论管制的宽松。\n**宋代的基本制度设计，大幅度改变了中国人的性格。中国人历史上第一次不再以立功疆场为荣。**立多大功勋，也难有文臣的风光。**男人开始丧失尚武精神，沉醉在案头书牍，体质越来越差，性格越来越细腻。**宋代之前，国人并不压制自己的欲望，活的健康自然。宋代开始，不会骑马的不能比赛疆场杀贼，只能比赛谁个能杀心中贼，也就是谁更能”克人欲，存天理“。男人们缺乏自信，妇女的命运因此遭遇180度转弯。文弱的宋代男人开始了处女嗜好，三寸金莲，女人被用礼教和衣服包裹起来。甚至宣称，女性贞节是关乎国家前前途的大事。缺少安全感的人，都善于推卸责任。宋代男人就是通过这样的方式，把亡国灭种的责任转嫁到了女人身上，通过盯着女性守贞节，缓解自己的内心压力，梅兰竹菊这四个节操的象征物，越来越多被用作女性的名字，是一个暗示。\n蛮霸之元\n文化被弃\n如果说宋朝只是使国民普遍在气质上变得更文弱，那么元朝则彻底打断了中国人的脊梁，后者对国民性的改变是摧毁性的。中国文明最大的一次倒退，应该说是从元朝开始的，**蒙古人一直比较残暴，靠暴力统治。元代出现了一个前所未有的局面：上层文化遭遇到了毁灭性打击，下层文化或者说俗文化首次取代雅文化，成为主流。**忽必烈就曾发出疑问：“汉人惟务课赋吟诗，将何用焉？”虽然后来忽必烈决定以汉法治汉人，但对汉人的礼法传统，始终不予重视。有位著名的外国学者曾说：“鞑靼统治不但压迫了为其牺牲品的人民，并且凌辱而且消磨了他们的灵魂。”\n精英损耗\n由于华夷之辨独盛，所以蒙古人在中国所遇的抵抗是他们征服世界的过程中最为顽强的。事实上，南宋军队虽称软弱，但是也涌现了众多铁骨铮铮的人物：襄阳之围，宋人坚守了5年。1275年的常州之战，数千守军战斗至死，只余六人，反背相柱，杀敌多人后才壮烈殉国。元兵围扬州，守将李庭芝誓死坚守，甚至南宋太皇太后亲自劝降也拒不接受。他们杀掉元朝的招降使者，焚招降书于城上。“城中粮尽，有自食其子以坚持者”……\n然而从另一个角度看，**数十年的抗元战争，最可怕的后果是消耗掉了汉民族最精英的人物。那些有血性、有骨气、有胆量的人大面积地被消灭。**有人说，在文天祥赋诗而死、陆秀夫负幼主蹈海而亡后，中国作为一个文化体已经灭亡，“崖山之后，已无中华”。这一方面是指中国文化受到毁灭性的打击，另一方面也指中国的脊梁已被打断，中华精神已经灭绝。\n宋代以前的中国，可以说是一个伟大的民族。它创造着，体验着，发现着，说自己想说，想自己所想，生机勃勃，生趣盎然。\n宋代以后，诗人们的才性、阅历、学识均大幅崩塌。他们画地为牢，处处模仿着过去，重复着过去，以诗写得像唐或者像宋沾沾自喜。遇到花朝或者月夕，或其他任何人生情境，他们都已经形成固定的解释方式、感受方式和表达方式。他们以拾前人牙慧为荣，不敢越藩篱一步。明清五百年的诗坛，没有一点激情和冲动，没有一点真性情，甚至没有一个真表情，除了纳兰容若外，居然没再产生一个有影响的诗人。\n宋代以后的中国人不但失去了创造力，也失去了感受力。整个民族只剩了一个外壳，没有了灵魂。社会如同一潭死水，散发出腐烂的气味，从上层到下层，人们都既狡猾又愚昧，既贪婪又懦弱。如果说这几百年中国人有什么进步，那就是在政治厚黑学和民间骗人造假术上的进步。\n混蛋之明\n户籍管制，八股诞生\n秦始皇之后的历代开国皇帝，除了北魏隋唐等少数民族血统者之外，几乎都有或浓或淡的流氓气，汉高祖早年就是一个小流氓，赵匡胤亦出身游民，其父做了倒插门女婿，赵匡胤少而流浪四方，从军后才渐渐发迹。而朱元璋是杰出代表，在社会上游荡过三年，毁灭了朱的道德底线，人不为己天诛地灭成为他的生命哲学，在个人奋斗和治理国家过程中，多次表现出他的流氓意识。\n虽朱赶走了蒙古人，在历史上称为汉族的光复，然而朱的统治比蒙古人更野蛮强硬。继承了蒙古人统治的精髓–户口世袭制。他恨不得把全国人民都植物化，只产出果实供他享用。因此他又创立历史上最严格的户籍管理制度，不允许随便迁移。重视对知识分子大脑的控制。唐代科举制度**，把全社会智力资源集中到功名利禄这一个指向，限制了智力活动的多级多向发展。**朱元璋的改革，规定只能写八股文，造成格式化的知识分子。四书一经之外，咸束高阁。\n特务治国，流氓社会\n治国措施的第二个核心，防止任何人窥视他的权力。防止豪门巨户，屡兴大狱，几万豪门杀得所剩无几。清洗开国元勋，清洗当时上层社会几乎所有智商较高，权力较大的人。**第三是大搞特务治国，因为出身卑贱又防范心重。对治下的臣民表现出强烈的不信任心理。**对臣民的一举一动一言一行包括私生活，表现出一种病态的关注。中国历代王朝的运转，总要套上一件文质彬彬的外衣，只有明代的皇帝们撕掉了这层外衣，赤裸裸表现出对他人的防范和贱视。从某个角度来说，明朝是一个由流氓建立的，以流氓规则运转的流氓社会，这在中国历史上是绝无仅有的。\n以流氓手段治国，自然就要依赖流氓。明代政治的另一大特点是流氓与权力的高度结合。（专横的权力）毁灭道德，因为缺乏安全感就不会有道德。民代特殊的制度设计和同志作风对民族性格产生了不可逆转的影响。**通过强硬而残暴的政策，朱元璋把传统文化的负面因素放大到影响整个国家的性格。**他的强横残暴，使中国民族的整体性格又一次大幅度软化，他将社会个体的自主性摧毁殆尽，人们本来不多的自尊意识更被扫除一空。奴性从明代开始，在人格空地上如同野草一样长得更加茂盛。\n明代社会的最大特点是，几乎所有社会阶层都呈现出&quot;流氓“面貌。皇帝贵族的流氓事迹多了去，我就不写了。明代正统以后，从朝廷首辅到普通官员，争相向皇帝献房中术以邀宠，成为中国历史上从来没有过的一道奇景。太监之祸的严重大家也知道。僧道集团，结交衙门，吃酒赌钱，靠诈骗为生，形成了一股风气。至于底层政权，如金瓶梅所描写的，明代地方政府中，具体办事儿人员也大多是流氓。\n随着社会日益腐败，几乎每个社会成员都从学会了颠倒的社会规则。上梁不正下梁歪，底层百姓们无条件地接受了流氓规则，我们耳熟能详的俗语里，大多数都是在明代流行开来的。流氓性格从明代开始，成为中国人性格中一个重要组成部分。\n\n在明朝万历年间到达中国的传教士利玛窦意外地发现，中国的男人都如此文弱。他在写给罗马的信中说：“很难把中国的男子看作是可以作战打仗的人。”他惊讶地发现，这个帝国里最聪明的人看起来都像女人。鸦片战争后来到中国的外国人，更惊讶于中国人的胆小。古伯察说：“傲慢尊大的、看上去颇具刚毅的中国人，一旦遇到态度坚决，意志不挠的人，马上就会变得软弱，像患了癔病。面临困难的中国人嘴里常说‘小心’，即‘胆子要小’。”罗斯则说：“中国儿童不像欧洲儿童那样蹦蹦跳跳……对武力的赞赏已经完全没有了。大男子当众啼哭而不以为耻。”\n\n秦汉以降，虽然在世俗层面，士人们遵守权力秩序，但是在精神层面，他们中的许多人却以“圣人”自期，追求“始乎为士，终乎为圣人”，保持着一定程度的人格独立。及至朱元璋时代，士人们做隐士的自由首次被剥夺。朱元璋不能容忍在他至高无上的皇权之下存在另一种高傲，认为拒绝为他服务的士人必定是看不起他。他发布命令：“率土之滨，莫非王臣。寰中士大夫不为君用，是自外其教者，诛其身而没其家，不为之过。”在这道前无古人的“寰中士大夫不为所用律”下，苏州才人姚润、王谟因征召不至，被朱元璋斩首、抄家。\n当历史进入大明王朝时，流氓化，恐怖统治，更是典型。流氓典型表现，不讲规则，没有底线，欺软怕硬，不择手段。这也逐渐成为国民性格的一部分。\n帝制终点\n历代王朝莫不要求大臣们成为有操守的名臣，然而清代帝王却首次提出，一个大臣不应该追求成为名臣，因为过于坚守道德原则，也会妨碍他们不打折扣地、像狗一样地为皇帝服务。乾隆更提出了一个著名的理论：“奸臣”固然并非国家幸事，“名臣”的出现其实也不是什么好事。国家只需要唯命是从办事敏捷的奴才。因此清代这些饱读四书五经的大臣有一个共同的特点，那就是无思想无操守，除功名利禄外无所关心。在皇帝明察之下，他们老老实实，卖命效力，以图飞黄腾达。皇帝一旦放松警惕，他们就会大肆贪污，尽一切可能盗窃皇帝的家产。他们选择了动物式生存。所谓操守、尊严和人格，对他们来说已经是不着边际的空话。\n更加混蛋的满清基本制度上几乎全部研习明朝，故就不用多说了，一个鸟样。清朝世人皆为奴隶。\n\n满清混蛋之余只剩一个疆域扩大的有利结果\n\n明清不再开放，使得文明衰落，断绝了走向世界的机会。\n近代来临\n改良论调\n\n胡适说：“民治的本身就是一种公民教育。给他一票，他今天也许拿去做买卖，但将来总有不肯卖票的一日；但是你若不给他一票，他现在虽没有卖票的机会，将来也没有不卖票的本事了。”\n\n有人卖票，说明民选这一票还有用。比起这张票一文不值，毕竟还是进步。在胡适看来，中国的民主政治也许注定要从卖票甚至打架开始，关键是一定要迈开这一步，然后再一步步地进行改良：“选票制的改革，从公开的变成秘密的，从记名变为不记名的，便可以除去许多关于选举的罪恶。今天中国的选举坏到极处了；将来我们若想改良选政，一定还得从制度上寻下手的方法。”\n\n胡适说：“暴力革命带来的，必然是暴力专制政府。”\n\n鲁迅的国民性批判很大程度上也是一种激烈的道德批判。胡适则认为，只进行道德批判，不追究道德背后的东西，把所有的事情都混到“国民性改造”这个大锅里一锅煮，是达不到效果的。政治的归政治，道德的归道德，不能试图以道德解决政治问题。\n中国人历来有一种一元论的思维倾向，喜欢把复杂的世相归结为“小葱拌豆腐”式的某种“终极真理”之下，认为找到“大本大元”之后，则一切复杂的问题都会“彻底解决”，迎刃而解。**但“统一的思想只是思想的僵化“。**胡适的思想来源于杜威的实验主义，他认为人类永远不能掌握终极真理，任何一种“主义”都不可能绝对正确，“包医百病，根本解决”。\n胡适的“全盘西化”并不是指毁灭中国旧有的一切。他说，全盘西化只是一个方向，凡事取法其上，得乎其中，向全盘西化努力的结果，必然是两种文化的融合。\n革命派\n年轻的毛泽东是一个比较右倾的人（早期向各种人学习，较早崇拜的是梁启超），甚至主张湖南独立及资产阶级型的政权，但其思潮变化的很快，各种流行思潮在其脑中都过过一遍。但有一条主线，国民性改造需要有圣人来领导，掌握了大本大元（真理）的人出现来唤醒，改造全国人的头脑，引向被解救的境地。马列主义占据每个人的头脑，去掉人性中的私。\n“文化大革命”亦未达目标。经过文化大革命之后，大家感觉国民性没有什么进步，反倒有重大的退步。人为分为两部分，相互斗争，私底下的谈话作为证据拿出来指控你。相互提防，仇恨，彼此间的冷漠滋长。\n实践教训\n任何一种变革都要有立足的基础，现代化与其说是一个摧毁传统的“除旧布新”运动，毋宁说是一个将传统资源转化利用的“推陈出新”过程。或者说，文化只可能在旧的基础上升级换代，而不可能一夜之间全盘更换。\n改造过程中要警惕左派，左派通常是人品败坏之徒，我的是我的，你的还是我的，咱把你的分了吧。全部的loser都在左派下集结，不满现状，希望没有秩序，重构秩序，想睡秀才娘子的床，想捏小尼姑的脸蛋儿。党和政府只怕煽动和组织，这是底牌。剩余的声张自己权利的事儿，都可以干。\n来段结语\n\n《乌合之众》中也强调了民族性的差异，漫长的时间造就了不同的作品。遗传的心理结构在人们感觉和思维方式上造成巨大的差别，民族是在历史中形成的有机体，只能通过缓慢的世代累积的过程发生变化，而教育是我们在一定层度上影响国民心智的唯一手段。\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"中国就业人群调查","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E7%BE%A4%E8%B0%83%E6%9F%A5.html","content":"\n劳动力人群\n就业vs非就业阶段\n14亿人口中，就业和非就业年龄段大概是6 vs 4开\n\n\n非就业阶段人口5.9亿【靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段】\n\n\n就业段劳动人口8.2亿，如果女性退休年龄下探则就业人口应会对齐下探至统计年鉴的口径7.69亿\n\n\npie showData\ntitle 人口14.1（亿）\n    \"就业阶段人口\" : 8.2\n    \"靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段\" : 5.9\n非劳动阶段人口\n\n储备力量3.1亿\n\n6岁以下的人口有0.78亿（7788万）\n中小学生1.85亿（18534万）\n在读大学生0.47亿（4655万）\n\n\n离退力量2.8亿：60岁以上老人\n\n\npie showData\ntitle 5.9（亿）非劳动人口\n    \"儿童（6岁下）\" : 0.78\n    \"中小学\" : 1.85\n    \"大学生\" : 0.47\n    \"退休\": 2.8\n总分布\npie showData\ntitle 人口140000（万）\n    \"6岁下儿童\" : 7788\n    \"中小学\" : 18534\n    \"大学生\" : 4655\n    \"工作人群\": 82000\n    \"60岁以上老人\": 28000\n8.2亿适龄劳动人口\n按2022统计年鉴，抽样统计到劳动力7.6863亿人[1]，那么还约有5000w+人完全不从事任何获取报酬的活动，实际上更多点，因为60岁以后，还有一些人返聘或者继续在工作。\n从三产性质看\n第一产业-1.77亿\n（农林牧渔）1.77亿人，围绕农林牧渔卖饲料卖工具的可不算在内，其实第一产业职业门槛并不低，这行当对没基础或者没地的人是关闭的\n第二产业-2.11亿\n含采掘业（不含辅助开采）、制造业（不含修理）、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业、建筑业。\n\n可细分为41个行业，在23年1-10月只有14个实现营收和利润正增长，电力热力生产和供应业增长最好（电力，燃气，热力生产，水再生等）。投身这些行业会比较有汤喝\n建筑行业呈下降趋势，2022年建筑行业从业人数减少了141w，剩5142万。不少由放开转向物业服务，分类性质发生会变化。\n\n第三产业-3.46亿人\n物流运输\n\n物流运输（运货+运人）有5000万+从业者\n\n\n汽车司机\n\n货车司机最多，1800w人\n网约车司机次之，657w（网上一种说法1900w没有官方出处）\n出租车司机 270w\n100w公交司机\n\n\n除了司机，还有其他物流运输从业者\n\n450w快递小哥\n205w铁路工作人员\n190w的航海人员\n60w航空从业者\n剩下的或许都是外卖小哥1268w\n\n\n\npie showData\ntitle 物流运输（货+人）5000w\n    \"货车司机\" : 1800\n    \"网约车\" : 657\n    \"出租车\" : 270\n    \"公交车\": 100\n    \"快递小哥\": 450\n    \"铁路人员\": 205\n    \"航海\": 190\n    \"航空\": 50\n    \"外卖\": 1268\n信息服务业\n大概有1000w信息服务业，其中600~700w程序员，70w产品经理，50w软件测试，100w个UI和设计师。整个行业一边裁员一边招人，给年轻人让位。这个领域人数上限还有提升空间\n金融行业\n金融圈大概有1000w人，保险是大头，570w人，银行占300w，证劵35w人，剩下的是投行和投融资中介。这个圈子里要求的是先会做事（业务），再会做人（升得快但投入也很高），做自己（佛系）舒服也是危险的\n通讯行业\n通讯行业200w人，三大运营商占一半，中移动人最多45w，联通24w，电信28w。行业平均工资高，平均25w~31w，但基层员工收入低，可能才3k/月，收入差距明显，技术和管理人才收入很高\n文化产业\n文化产业420w人，各部门机构从业人员72.5w，从业人数最多的是各地景区工作人员，147w，还有产业配套服务人员（旅行社酒店）134w（按统计年鉴光住宿就162w，数字存疑），艺术创作和演出从业人员41.5w，6w人负责图书馆公共服务，0.64w负责美术馆。这个板块挣得不多胜在较稳定。\n律师\n执业律师超过65w，行业平均薪资超过15w，工龄越长越值钱，一线收入高。也是不平衡的，没案子的律师一年下来收入可能还不如外卖小哥，还是看谁能掌握更多的优质客户，算是高端局，既要学历高，又要经验好，专业和销售能力都要强。\n电子商务\n电子商务大概有720w卖家和337w主播，一半的卖家已开播，便宜了消费者，养活了平台，一片厮杀红海，亏死一批老板，成就了一小部分人（如头部主播）。电商不是均富的，82开，91开的比例，一直洗牌，平台还是卖家都是一样，可能几年不赚钱，几个月就把之前亏的钱都赚回来了，是一个波动不稳定的行业。老板在寻找爆款商品，员工在寻找爆款老板。\n其它\n[数据无法核实] 餐饮约莫有700w从业人员，家政3000w，文化娱乐2000w，体育行业490w。\n\n其中北上广深的餐馆最多，占全国的 23%\n\n图形分列\npie showData\ntitle 三类产业从业人员（亿）\n    \"第一产业（农林牧渔）\" : 1.77\n    \"第二产业\" : 2.11\n    \"第三产业\" : 3.46\n\n从24 年发布的第五次全国经济普查中，法人单位的批发零售从业人员5326 万，含个体户的话就更多，一种说法是达到 1.35 亿（但未见数据官方出处）\n\npie showData\ntitle 第三产业人员细分（34600万）\n    \"批发零售\": 5326\n    \"物流运输\" : 5000\n    \"信息服务\" : 1000\n    \"金融\" : 1000\n    \"通讯\": 200\n    \"文化产业\": 420\n    \"律师\": 65\n    \"餐饮\": 700\n    \"家政\": 3000\n    \"体育\": 490\n    \"文化娱乐（影视歌游戏演出等）\": 2000\n    \"电商卖家\": 720\n    \"主播\": 337\n从姓资姓社看\n社会主义群体\n财政供养人员\n\n参考全国住房公积金2021年度报告表，国家机关和事业单位实缴职工4654.61w人。\n截止2022年末全国缴纳机关事业单位养老保险人数5953w，在职约4500w，理解起来加上离退休约6000w人。\n人类时代食利（食税）阶层的人口一定要小于交税人口的$1/10$，超过这个数就不可持续\n\n\n\n公务员：党委、政府、人大、政协+公检法 共700w（含220w警察，法院30w，检察院20w）。如果加上参公，党群，工会妇联残联作协人员（实际上这批按定义不是公务员）则可能达到1300w\n\n\n事业单位：3300w。\n\n教师是事业编里最多的，1884w人，中小学老师已经饱和了。\n医生440w（学历要求高），注册护士522w，药师53w。\n\n  pie showData title 在职财政饭（4600万）\n    \"国家机关（四大班子公检法）\" : 700\n    \"参公：党群工会妇联残联作协\":600\n    \"事业单位\" : 3300\n\n\n国企\n\n国企：4000w\n\n\n含电网90w\n\n\n烟草50w\n\n\n邮政90w\n\n\n石油石化天然气200w\n\n\n\n\n现役军人\n270w，其中军人200w，武警66w\n图例展示\n\n事业单位中群体最大是教育行业，大部分是教师，占比57%。注册护士占比 15.8%，医生占比 13.3%\n\npie showData title 社会主义群体概分（单位万）\n    \"国家机关\" : 700\n    \"参公党群...作协\":600\n    \"事业单位\" : 3300\n    \"国企\" : 4000\n    \"军人\": 270\n\n从第 5 次经济普查数据看，23 年底教育行业人员增长到 2241w，卫生人员增长到 1110w\n\npie showData title 社会主义群体细分（单位万）\n    \"国家机关\" : 700\n    \"参公党群...作协\":600\n    \"教师\" : 1884\n    \"医生\" : 440\n    \"注册护士\": 522\n    \"药师\": 53\n    \"事业单位其它\": 400\n    \"电网\":90\n    \"烟草\":50\n    \"邮政\":90\n    \"石化\":200\n    \"国企其它\":3570\n    \"军人\":200\n    \"武警\":66\n资本市场群体\n数量\n除开上面的社会主义群体，再除去农业兄弟1.77亿，无产阶级打工人最多。1.14亿个体工商户，2亿灵活就业者（也就是没单位给交社保，灵活就业者不包含个体户），在民企老老实实上班的最多2亿（7.7亿就业人口-0.8亿编制人员-2亿灵活就业-1.1亿个体户-1.77亿一产=2.1亿）\npie showData title 姓资群体（亿）\n    \"农业兄弟\" : 1.77\n    \"个体工商户\":1.14\n    \"灵活就业\" : 2\n    \"民企\" : 2.1\n五险一金\n劳动法选择性生效，五险一金能给还着实是小部分人\n\n全国缴纳失业险的2.3亿[1]，买了社保就一定有失业险。公务员和事业单位不用交失业险。那么正在上班的人中加上公务员事业单位合计有社保的不到3亿（保底2.76=0.46机关公积金+2.3）\n累积城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数是5亿[1]\n缴纳公积金的人数就更少了，1.64亿\n\npie showData title 就业人群社会保障（亿）\n    \"在职社保+公积金\" : 1.64\n    \"在职有社保\":2.76\n    \"有社保已退休\" : 2\n未来已来\n从目前的就业人口数量就可以支撑我们经济的正常运行，甚至实现稳步增长。反身一想，那么当前未能成功的就业人口其背后的经济价值正在趋近于 0。\n就业未来甚至具有一定的社会福利意义，福利的属性决定了被剩下的人，即使找到岗位，收入也是有限的。\n科技是第一生产力，也是破坏力，破坏生产关系。有论调新技术会创造新的岗位，但这个观点的正确性仅限于宏观层面，把目光放到微观会发现，新岗位和旧岗位承接的不是同一批人，被电商挤压回家的百货人并未成为物流人和客服人，因为新产业只要年轻人。\n我们面临的问题是史诗级的，是人类首次面临 10 亿级别人口的产业升级，破局之道必定是组合拳：\n\n转移支付：产业升级可看作传统部门向现代部门让利的过程，生产袜子的企业关闭了换成生产芯片的企业，不一定是袜子卖不动了，而是生产芯片对社会来说更有效率。袜子厂的员工理论上应得到一定程度的补贴，等同于过去的给农民减负，都是财富上的转移支付，今天换了一个名字：防返贫\n对内分流：只能用三产来承接，教育分流和免费职业培训，就是想让被淘汰的旧产业者有机会转向围绕新产业衍生出来的生产性服务业或基础服务业里。\n对外输出：向新兴市场输出，是每一个发达国家的必经之路。与低端产业出口相匹配的就是低端就业人口的输出。我们曾是日本最大的海外输出市场之一，从商品到生产线甚至技术人员，日本是一并出口，大量的技术人员来到中国，没有我们这个庞大的市场，这些人在日本国内也是要被淘汰掉的。\n\n如果你没在产业升级的快车道上，大概率就在产业淘汰的车轮之下。作为普通人，未来的选择无非三种：自我放弃、投身三产、海外出征。\n引用\n1.国家统计局 中国统计年鉴2023 ↩2.国家统计局 人口和就业指标口径说明 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"中国式思维","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n\n曾老讨论这个话题的出发点如下：\n\n可以欣赏别人的长处，却实在不必要样样优点都要学，否则自己乱了根本，反而产生很多化解不掉的矛盾。先做好中国人，再来学习外国人的优点，当然能够做到他山之石，可以攻玉，徒然把自己弄得四不像，根本没有好处。\n正所谓持经达变。经也可以指群体生活中的常规定理，个体在生活中进退取舍的指导原则。中国文化如果真的乱七八糟怎么可能生存五千年之久？人生短暂，最大的任务在于提升自己并承前启后。\n哲学源流之分\n西：一分二，二分四，四分八\n东：一生二，二生三，三生万物\n古时，东西方隔离很远，互不沟通，那时东方以一内涵二为主要理念，西方则以二构成一为主流，日本向中国学习，却由于生态环境影响，逐渐形成一统全局的理念，德意也在20世纪30年代先后变形为一统全局的状态。\n西方人的**分别性大过和合性**，中国人倒过来。一个以分为常，视合为变，一个以合为常，不得已才分。合中无分是一种变形，称之为一统全局\n\n分和在生活体现\n中国人的思维总是把很多东西揉在一起\n秘书\n中国人总是要求一专多能，呵呵，就像中国的女秘书总是年轻的，带的出去的，能陪吃饭的。\n国外的秘书可能是很老的女性。表现出思维上不做分类。\n菜肴\n中国的菜也是混着炒的，西方的肉菜，多是分开的。印度他们的东西也是，甚至贯彻到严格的人群分层。\n中式风格点\n中国人的基本性格\n由于历史悠久，加上包容性很强，中华民族实在是世界上最复杂的民族，几乎样样特质，在我们身上都可以找到。\n说起来十分简单，就是我们口头上常说，心里头常想的**”不一定”**，判断标准妥当性往往大于真实性。\n有一套常见的复合标准，如害怕权威却不服从权威；喜欢表现又害怕表现；个人主义又重视团体；嘴上常常没意见却常常很有意见；告诉大家不用担心便是希望大家各自小心。\n在这些复合标准中，中国人主张合理就是好，要因时因地而制宜。\n基本立场\n中国人欢迎合理的变来变去，厌恶不合理的乱变，正所谓不可不变，不可乱变。\n中国人的基本立场，是不偏不倚，秉持既不反对也不赞成的态度，反对应反对的部分，又赞成应赞成的部分。\n安全和面子是中国人最先想到的因素，有本事不随便表现，出于明哲保身的考虑。中国人比较喜欢打击有能力的人又同情没能力的，不随便表现才不致一表现就死。\n警觉性高\n中国人警觉性很高，非常怕被讨好，对方特别客气时都不忘提醒自己礼多必诈，但一旦遭受冷落，也会提醒自己受了委屈要给对方一点颜色看看，所以讨好要让对方觉得好像没讨好一样，例如说:我不必当面奉承您老，我这是说真心话，让对方心理上做好准备。\n自大与自卑\n好为人师是中国人自大的通病，听到一些相反的道理，觉得自己好像思考不够周全，显得有些自卑，但中国人不可以轻易认输，死抬杠也要硬撑到底。谦虚是治疗中国人一面自大一面自卑的良药。\n长期圆满\n中国人注重长期性的衡量，是对人最大的激励，只要跑到终点，早一点晚一点没有太大的差别，希望大家互相鼓励学习，共同发展以求互补，利于整体进步。\n长期性的激励与综合性的鼓励，乃是中国人不折不挠，见贤思齐的原动力，也是站在中国人让大家都有面子的圆满立场上的选择，激励大家从事长期竞赛而不要中途放开。\n\n个人觉得这段原动力的表述并未触及本源，历史的悠久记载与核心地理区的稳定传承，让中国相较而言有一份长期性的视角。欣赏见贤思齐的总结表述。\n\n中式良心\n中国人的良心表现在为子孙设想上，不能留下坏榜样，以免祸延子孙，凡事妥当性须大于真实性，理大于法。\n合理就是好，一切力求恰到好处，高手过招，点到为止，赢得装没赢，输的装没输。\n必要修养\n至少应包括：明辨随机应变和投机取巧，分清圆通与圆滑，弄清楚“经（原则）”和“权（权宜之计）”之间的配合，分辨虚安和欺骗，区别大我和小我，多说我们少说我。\n\n莫把自己所作所为视为随机应变，将别人行为当做投机取巧\n避免营造中国人时常骗来骗去，没有信用的印象\n避免无意中把自己和别人划出界线，对自己造成不利\n\n圆通和圆滑\n园通和圆滑，概念不同，一个受欢迎，圆通人士，一个都厌恶，圆滑小人。一个用推拖拉的功夫来解决问题，省时又减少许多阻力，一个毫无解决问题的诚意。\n文明的冲突\n西方与非西方关系的中心问题是：在全球范围内推广西方文化的努力与其推广能力下降这两者之间的不协调。在西方眼中的普世主义，对于非西方来说就是帝国主义。\n中国的历史，文化，传统，规模，经济活力和自我形象，都驱使它在东亚寻求一种霸权地位，这个目标是中国经济迅速发展的自然结果。\n李光耀在94年曾说：中国参与世界地位重组的规模，使得世界必须在30或40年的时间内找到一种平衡。假装中国不过是另一个大的参与者是不可能的，它是人类历史上最大的参与者。\n\n中国官方的主流观点是不倾向于赞同“文明的冲突”这一观点的，如果承认文明的冲突，那就是在文明之间区分优劣。\n\n危险化学反应\n在宏观层面，最主要的分裂是在西方与非西方之间，未来的危险冲突可能会在西方的傲慢，伊斯兰国家的不宽容和中国的武断的相互作用下发生。\n中印有别\n中国是一个伪装为国家的文明，印度是一个伪装为国家的宗教。\n\n印度对人的分类层次很多，贱民称为不可触摸者，认为他们是不洁净的，因为他们从事的是不洁净的职业，例如清扫，制革等等，下等是不能进入上等人的领域的，其宗教里的种姓制度明显。\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"中国汽车数据分析","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.html","content":"\n数字会说话\n有车家庭比例\n中国有车家庭占全国的 42%，有车比例家庭最高的 5 个省市区依次是江苏，山东，浙江，河北，天津。这 5 个省市有车家庭比例在 49%以上，江苏达到 51%。\n占比最低的 5 个省市区依次是黑龙江，海南，甘肃，吉林，广西，有车率在 35%以下，倒数第一的黑龙江只有 27%。\n23 年购车量排名\n分省份来看，哪些省买车最多呢，2023 年购买乘用车最多的5 个省依次是广东，江苏，浙江，山东，河南。五个省共卖出 856 万辆，占到全国总销量 41%，需求可见强劲。具体到城市，则依次是北京，上海，成都，广州，郑州。\n\n如下数字均以 23 年销售为基准\n\n车价\n大家现在买车主要是买什么价位的车呢？23 年乘用车销售总额约 4.26 万亿，卖出 2606.3 万辆，全国车价平均值16.3w，也符合 7 普数据。\n\n七普全国有车家庭拥有 10w~20w 汽车的中国家庭最多，比例高达 42%，\n其次是拥有 10w 以下汽车的家庭，比例达到 39%，这两部分加起来已经高达 81%。\n拥有 30w 以上豪车的家庭，全国只有 7.95%，你开 30w 以上的车子，在全国来说已经是 10 里挑一的精英选手，但在魔都仅是1/4的好手( Ĭ ^ Ĭ )。\n\n\npie showData title 车价家庭分布\n    \"~10w\" : 39.35\n    \"10w~20w\" : 42\n    \"20w~30w\" : 10.7\n    \"30w~50w\" : 5.2\n    \"50w~100w\" : 2.1\n    \"100w+\" : 0.65\n车型\n2023 汽车销量前十的分别为特斯拉 Model Y，轩逸，比亚迪海豚，速腾，比亚迪秦 Plus，比亚迪元 Plus，长安 CS75，五菱宏光 Mini，凯美瑞，比亚迪海鸥，只有特斯拉 Model Y价高点，次之为凯美瑞，多数车价都不贵。\n具体到车企，23 年前五是比亚迪，一汽大众，吉利，长安，上汽大众。\n阵营\n现今销量国产车已经成为销售主流，占56%，德系占 17.8%，日系占 14.4%，美系占8.8%。\npie showData title 23车辆销量阵营\n    \"国产\" : 56\n    \"德系\" : 17.8\n    \"日系\" : 14.4\n    \"美系\" : 8.8\n豪车售往哪\n豪车（30w+）都是谁在买呢，豪车占比最高的省份有哪些？\n七普数据豪车家庭占比最高的 5 个依次为上海（23.8% - 接近路上4 量车中一辆 30w 以上的车），北京（20.5%），浙江（18.6%），西藏（12.6%），广东（12%），全国各省豪车中位数是 6.2%\n最低的 5 个省份是山西（2.8%）、河北（3.5%）、河南（3.6%）、黑龙江（3.7%）、甘肃（4.1%）。\n在上海看到豪车的概率要比山西高出 8 倍多，相当于戴了 8 倍镜。\n产业的重要性\n有车对中国经济多重要呢？中国的吃、喝、穿、用商品零售总额全部加在一起 4.35 万亿，而汽车类零售总额则高达 4.86 万亿，全国人民用来购买汽车和零部件的钱比全国人民的吃喝穿用总花费还要高，汽车对中国经济的带动效应可想而知。\n按需消费\n汽车就像手表，对普通人而言不过是个工具，对于有社交需求的人而言，就是行走的名片，象征着实力和身份，马斯克赚到钱也买了迈凯伦，购车算是人类的一种孔雀开屏行为。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"中年的意义","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E4%B9%89.html","content":"\n人类取得食物的整个系统都很独特，成年成员取得卡路里的能力，会随着学习狩猎和采集技巧而不断提升，中年人为社群取得资源的能力一向最强。年轻个体除了基因会得到另外一种形式的中重要信息—跟长辈学习\n**中年人则擅长分析，计划，组织和文化延续，**见树又见林，可称为洞察力。\n人脑能力进化的驱动\n人类取得食物的整个系统都很独特，大部分灵长类会消耗大量养分含量低，但非常容易获取的食物，灵长类中，人类特别擅长取得埋在土里，有外壳，外层有毒或跑得比我们快的食物，专门找需要技巧才能取得的各式宝贵食物（要靠寻找，挖掘，剥皮，智取），而这大概是我们变得如此聪明的主要因素之一（当时扳机可能是200万年前的气候变迁，人类为适应草原扩张的干旱气候而待在没有遮蔽的地方），人类需要时间来学习这些技巧。\n现代狩猎采集的社会中，成年成员取得卡路里的能力，会随着学习狩猎和采集技巧而不断提升，狩猎采集者在25-30岁之间取得食物的能力会提高3倍，取得食物的能力在45岁达到巅峰（黑猩猩大多活不到那个岁数），45岁，狩猎采集者的体力逐渐变差，骨质量和灵活度也开始下降，但他们拥有多年的实践经验，所以还是胜过年轻的同伴，中年人为社群取得资源的能力一向最强。\n\n灵长类群落大多可以全体一起四处游荡，轻松捡食食物，但人类不可能这样，高超的狩猎采集需要技巧和灵活性，不可能同时带着小孩和双亲，所以人类必须分工。对南美狩猎采集者进行的研究显示，每对夫妻在抚养子女时，平均会得到另外1.4个成年人的帮助。\n中年人的功效\n人类的觅食模式与众不同，中年人在其中起到了关键作用，而频繁的重新分配食物关系重大，也许正是人类高度社会性的基础，而高度社会性或许是我们头脑如此发达的另一个重要原因。\n只有人类在青春期会有十多年的发育过程，人类演化出青春期是为了把无敌的发达头脑发育的更完美，而头脑正是我们这个物种得以成功进化的关键。\n\n人类幼儿的头脑以惊人的速度消耗能量，吸收知识，需要的能源远大于其它人猿婴儿。我们的物种是需要高投资，密集信息的。\n新生儿87%的能量被发育中的大脑消耗掉，一万年前的人得打猎才能得到这一切能量。和其它灵长类比起来，人类儿童死亡率很低，一个原因就是我们不让孩子参与狩猎和采集，在生病的时候，其他人还会为他们提供食物。\n\n年轻时，我们庞大的头脑需要非常多的能量，常常需要由父母之外的人提供，我们背后的这种支持也束缚了我们，让我们受制于紧密的社会协作，而这种协作需要更大的脑容量，人类处在一个智力，技术和社会性的良性循环之中，而驱动这个循环的力量正是中年人。\n养育一个儿童，不仅需要食物，还需要信息，大部分信息存在于基因中，许多动物到所有信息都在基因里，但在哺乳类（尤其是人类）这么复杂的动物中，年轻个体会得到另外一种形式的中重要信息—跟长辈学习。\n基因外文化的塑造\n将学到的信息以非基因的方式传承格外重要，因为其中包含日常生活中用得上的大量信息，知识，技术，价值观，态度和目标都会代代相传，而这种信息的集合体或许可以称为“文化”。人类用老练的手段搜集食物，用复杂的方式照顾后代，有繁复的社会互动，因此年轻人需要习得许多文化。\n基因可以延续几百万年，但思想却会轻易地溜走，然而，这种待机信息传递会瞬息消逝的特质，也是它最大的优点，一个人在某个当下获得的新技能或新知识，可能在其家族，后代，盟友和朋友间迅速延续。\n人类的独特之处，在于我们可以用语言表达我们所想到的任何事，而不是像其他物种，只能通过搜集食物，使用工具和用声音传递信息。\n**人类过了生育年龄还可以活很久，就是为了扮演这种传递信息的角色。**中年人兼具经验和精力，是人类所需最有力的提供者，文化传承的重责大任非中年人莫属。世界上到处都是中年人在教导和训练青年，虽然这些青年常比中年人更聪明伶俐，中年人却因此拥有惊人的固有价值。\n人类的头脑（尤其是记忆和语言的部分）在四五十岁之间没有明显衰退，处于这一年龄段的人（无论是父母，其它亲戚，朋友还是职场的良师）所起到的主要所用是储存，传授信息。\n研究显示，老年人对支持年轻人兴趣缺缺，可能是老年人罹病或死亡的早期征兆，仿佛我们一旦不再把思想传承给年轻人，自然选择就对我们失去兴趣。\n\n这也是为什么科技工作者经常长寿的部分原因，一定要勤用脑，与年轻人多相处啊\n\n农业的影响\n在智人存在于这个星球的岁月中，有99.5%的时间不是过着定居农耕的生活（智人在过去一万年的演化，和过去200w年的演化截然不同）\n副作用–寿命更短\n在旧石器时代晚期（5万年前开始），老年人数量其实多得惊人，根据化石直接估算，老年人的数量居然在实行农业后逐渐减少，这似乎不符合大家的普通认知。问题出现在饮食的改变上，农业无可避免的使人类的食物种类不再那么丰富，他们通常只吃自己种出来的那一两种作物，因此限制了所摄取的维生素，矿物质和不同种类的蛋白质。这也表示少数几种主要作物一旦种不好，就会造成惨剧。\n现代社会的证据显示，农业会减少付出同样努力所得到的食物量。南非的狩猎采集者，不像附近几个农业社群那么辛苦，而食物又比较充裕。据估计，从事狩猎采集的哈扎族人，每天只需花5个小时张罗食物，附近的农人则需要辛勤工作一整天，才能满足一天所需。农耕出现后，儿童的四肢变得比较柔软，没那么强健。\n更多的疾病\n农业社会平均寿命减短的另一个因素是传染病。农业和聚落则给人类带来了五花八门的新疾病。首先，大部分早期人类永久聚落恐怕肮脏又拥挤，缺少污水处理系统，加上为了灌溉而减缓水道流速，只会让疾病蔓延情况加剧。现代世界最重大的疾病，起因都是人口密度过高与卫生问题，而这些状况不大可能影响从前在开阔草原上游牧的狩猎采集部落；他们只要离开自己的排泄物就好了。\n疾病更常发生的另一个因素是人类和动物间的距离拉近了，在人类开始饲养牲畜之前，大概只有在短暂的狩猎过程中才会接触到动物，而最大的风险是被践踏或吃掉。相反地，畜牧让人类与动物及其身上各种赘生物持续近距离接触。\n有了农耕，人和动物也与细菌，病毒和寄生虫接触更多，除此之外，五花八门的病原菌原来埋在土里，因为翻土而暴露在空气中，之后飘进人类的肺部或被人类的伤口吸收，所以说，农业恐怕和我们一般所认为的一样，并不是那么美好的创新，人类的疾病形式发生了改变。\n有了农业后，人们更辛勤地工作，收获却更少，食物种类变得单一，活在污秽之中，年纪轻轻就死去，这一切的苦难是为了什么呢？事实上，虽然农业让我们进入了人类的新时代，物竞天择无情的力量却仍作用在我们身上，它们是：\n唯1.5的好处\n农业需要的土地比狩猎采集少，所以人类可以在小面积的土地上定居，人口密度远比以前高，若没有农业，世界上的人类可能还只有100万人，另外，农业社群状况良好的，稳定的热量来源能使人类更多繁衍更多后代。简而言之，农耕让人类繁衍得更多，这在演化上确有意义。\n农业的形成是个了不起的现象，不仅永远改变了我们吃的食物，也迫使人类在一个地方落脚，待在靠近田地和牲畜，以及可以储存食物的地方，农业的生活方式更加重视财产，随之而来的是保护财产并将之留给后代，不让别人取得。所有人类族群在短短一千年间，从狩猎采集的生活方式转变成耕作和聚落，城市，书写和政府也随之出现。\n中年感官的退化\n男性的错觉\n几乎所有哺乳动物两性寿命差不多，人类男性似乎成了例外，不论是死于心脏病，意外，还是酒精，药物，他们甚至容易忽略自己的健康—中年男性一直觉得自己比女性健康，虽然他们实际的健康状况可能比较糟糕，这些想法错误的健康乐观主义者，不愿意寻求医疗协助的情况也是众所周知的。\n感官却有下降–年轻人做替代\n感官退化通常在中年不会被注意到，因为我们的周遭的感官信息是在过量，大脑又是个成功的信息筛子，失去部分感官其实不会造成太大的问题，另外我们的感官其实过度精细。\n\n我们的鼻子能分辨出只有一个原子差异的不同化学物质，眼睛能侦测出数量不到10个的光子闪过，耳朵可以感应比原子半径还小的震动，听起来很神奇，到40岁时，真的还需要这样吗?\n\n偶尔我们的确需要那么惊人的精准度，但我们是群居生活，附近会有年轻人提供这种能力，这并不影响中年人协调实际狩猎行动的能力。让年轻人来当我们的眼睛和耳朵吧，中年人仍然是群体中的首脑。\n大脑的缩小–未必是严重损失\n通过MRI研究观测到人类大脑的灰质体积从20-80岁会持续减少1/4，听起来像是严重损失，其实不然，未必是坏事，有效率地截除神经细胞间不需要或没用的联结，就常常会使灰质的体积减小。\n为什么时间越过越快\n\n麻蛋，日子过得这么快，当我看到一篇文章是用星际穿越的剧照做的封面，写就日期却是在2014年的时候，我就开骂了。已经接近7年过去了，当时我还在青春的尾巴上\n\n随着年纪愈发增长，时间似乎过得愈快，像在嘲讽我们似的。提了好几套观点，但我觉得靠谱的为如下内容：\n我们的记忆扭曲了，因此扭曲了时间\n记忆基准点校正\n我们知道记忆会骗人，记忆也是我们感知时间的重要依据。我们大多对最近的事件记得比较清楚，而远的就差，我们对过去一两年有个清楚的时间架构，这段时间发生的事情都彼此吻合，但只要回忆之前的事，相关的记忆就变得支离破碎，常常须借助技巧和辅助记忆，来厘清事情发生的先后顺序，例如我们用重要的基准点（像是孩子出生，搬家）校正5-20年前的小事件的相对时间，这种时间感知的缺失情形，会造成一种错觉，让人觉得时间流逝的速度变快了 。\n新鲜感缺失\n我们都有经验，第一次做某件事，感觉比以后做花费时间要漫长，新学校或新单位第一天，甚至假期第一天，时间似乎过得慢吞吞的。深陷险境时，几分之一秒的时间会戏剧性地随着主观意识而夸张的延长。比起熟悉的刺激，默认刺激需要多加思索，所以大脑给这些刺激更多主观时间，相对之下，语料中的平凡刺激几乎不可以不加留意，统统略过。\n我们年轻时，事事新奇，你还在专心探究新的应对方式，所以有人认为时间随我们长大而加速，是因为我们比较少遇到新事物，中年人的世界很好预测，而我们大脑的反应方式让我们加快参与这个世界的速度，早年的生命因新挑战而延长扩展，中年的生命却因为缺乏新经验而在眼前压缩。\n为什么新鲜感会影响我们对时间流逝的主观感知呢，或许完全是记忆的关系，中年人需要储存的记忆比较少，我们大脑认为发生的事变少了，也就是流逝的时间没那么多。\n\n一年的时光并没有变短，但参照系数一直在变大，5-6岁一年相当于增加了100%的记忆，36岁时增加的记忆只相当于原来的1/30，新内容也在降低，无法激起波澜，主观上生命的确在加速流逝\n\n如何走出困境\n增加记忆的厚度，如果每天都是三点一线简单机械的重复，那么大脑的数据库就不可能像儿时那样爆发式的增长，大脑会误认为这一个月就是一天，所以每天给自己设置一点新鲜感，其实就是主观生命的延长。\n比如翻开一本新书，结交一个新朋友，去一个没去过的餐厅吃饭，到一个陌生的地方旅行。我们或许无法左右生命的长度，只要你愿意，随时都可以改变它的宽度。\n中青年竞争\n远古时代，中年人在大草原上狩猎和采集的效率，大大胜过年轻的同伴，到了近现代，他们则更懂得在城市里赚钱，有更强的政治势力\n纵观人类历史，年轻人一直擅长求新，创新和文化变革，中年人则擅长分析，计划，组织和文化延续。这种思考方式的专门化，并不是社会强加的结果，我们的大脑在不同生命阶段会发生结构和功能的改变，而思考方式的专门化是脑部变化不可避免的结果。\n中年人参与争夺，要领先年轻人，不是靠「经验」胜过年轻人，而是靠我们可称为「洞察力」的特质。研究证实，中年人特别擅长“见树又见林”，实验显示，他们可以在脑中储存大批量的信息，也可以“退后一步”，从全局思考事情的来龙去脉，而不是被细节迷惑。\n\n例如，从中年打字员得到的证据显示，虽然他们打字的速度不像以前那么快，但大脑中可以记住的字符串更长了。\n针对中年工程师的研究表明，他们更能筛选新信息，简化问题，避免混淆。\n中年推销员被证明可以随着年龄增长，自然地发展处量身定做的全新的推销方式，使得他们自身更成功。\n\n这些适应行为都能减少脑力工作需要的能量，中年人能量效率非常高，更擅长委派工作和职责，可能是因为他们拥有全面的洞察力，使他们更容易引导其他人，尤其是年轻人。他们发现不仅解释需要做什么很容易，且也知道为什么特定的任务对于共同的努力的成功是重要的。\n古代人类的生活离不开合作，部落为了达成共同目标而合作，很清楚中年人和年轻人有不同的贡献技能，新发现的中年视角还有另一个好处：让中年人很容易确定优先级和目标，这项能力我们从前称之为“智慧”。\n一夫一妻制\n从遗传学的研究来看，一夫多妻制在人类历史上相对而言并不重要，比较X染色体和其它染色体的基因重组程度，显示人类过去女性和男性的繁殖率是1.1-1.3，这表明绝大部分是一夫一妻制，不是绝对的1：1可能的原因不只是我们的祖先偶尔会一夫多妻，他们也可能是连续式一夫一妻制，或只是出轨。\n对其他物种的研究显示，想知道某种生物的生殖模式是否为一夫一妻制，有些简单的数值可以作为完美的指标，例如体型就是很好的指标，一夫多妻的灵长类，雄性的体型通常是雌性的2倍大，而长臂猿是一夫一妻制，雌雄体型相同。人类男性体型大约是女性的1.2倍，这一现象显示，我们偏向于一夫一妻制的那端。某些生物特征对于其他物种来说是杂交的特征，如杂交物种的睾丸大，还有独特的精子形态，以增加精子在多次交配的雌性身上赢得冲向卵子的赛跑，相较之下，人类的睾丸比较小，精子显得非常没活力。\n许多人类学家现在认为，社会对连续式一夫一妻不以为然，目前的一夫一妻制其实是人为的产物，使我们对宿敌时做出的情急反应，那些宿敌就是农业和定居的生活。农耕，定居，财产和集成，可能使社会强迫成员实行终身一夫一妻制。农业革命后，人们被迫比邻而居，在空间有限，生活贫困的的状况下，男人更不能为了性而彼此竞争。这也能解释为什么很多社会对通奸会有残酷的处罚。第二个理论是，农业的出现，让人类出生的婴儿数目达到前所未有的新高，就那么一块地，如果多妻可能后代就会挨饿，因此中年男性无法离开，中年女性得到一些保障，结合之前养育人类儿童的能量消耗之困难，而社会顺之订下终身一夫一妻制。\n停经的考虑\n卵子损耗的过程会把胎儿的几百万个卵子库存，削减到最后会排卵的几百个，40岁的卵子库其实富含不正常的卵子。大部分卵子不是发育之后消失，就是根本还没发育就消失了，其实，青春期的卵子数目已经削减到50万个以下，这时甚至还没开始排卵。萎缩过程在接下来的几十年中毫不减缓，如果40岁的女性可以设法停止萎缩的过程，那么她可能仍然会保留足够的卵子来维持1000年每个月的排卵。\n为什么停经时剩下的少数卵泡不再回应脑垂体分泌的促性腺激素？卵巢如何计算剩下多少卵泡，卵巢仿佛会做这件事，比方说，卵泡会分泌一种抑制素的激素，浓度会随着卵泡减少而降低，而停经前女性生育力不规律的下降，其实会受到抑制素浓度降低的影响。\n人类演化出停经，是以为到了人生某个时候，难产死亡会让须抚育的现有子女失去母亲的风险变得很高，超过生更多孩子的好处。预期死去时留下许多孩子挨饿，不如或者照顾几个健壮的孩子。有证据支持，工业化前美国和现代发展中国家的数据显示，每多生一个子女，父母的寿命就会缩短。\n还有一种假说是“外祖母假说”，自然选择不只偏爱停止生育，活下来把后代养育到成年的女性，还有利于存活更久的女性，可以帮助照顾外孙，人类后代的需求很大，双亲的劳动力通常不足，无法替后代收集足够的资源。外祖母扮演的角色或许类似工蜂。\n荣格谈中年觉醒\n每个人都有两次生命，第一次是活给别人看的，第二次是活给自己。第二次生命常常从 40 岁开始，在此之前，你知识在探索面具人生。\n一直以来，或许你都是按照父母，老师和社会的外在要求塑造着自己，职业生涯、社会角色，甚至人际关系的处理方式，都受到这些外部压力的影响。来到中年，你开始怀疑，你一直以来追求的目标是否真正属于你？过往的胜利|成就|挣扎|失败，都只是为接下来的阶段做准备。\n早年的成就和努力或许是人生的一种必要铺垫，帮你意识到什么并不能真正让你内心深处真正满足，随着年龄增长，目标和身份问题开始浮现，人到中年大脑也发生一些变化，增强情绪调节和自我意识，这些变化使得能以宽广的视角重新审视生活和应对挑战，那些曾经看似不可动摇的目标，现在也可以被重新定义。\n转变从来都不容易，通常伴随着不适，你需要极大的勇气，踏入未知领域，面对长期存在恐惧，放弃熟悉的安全模式。面对每一个恐惧和抛弃每一个过时的信念，都会让你更接近更真实的自己。荣格认为，中年是独特的人生转变的机会，发现并融入你一直想成为的那个人。这不是危机，而是一种觉醒，是一种超越他人期望，重新发现真实自我的独特机会。中年的觉醒是迈向个性化的过程，这是一种整合自我所有部分的旅程，包括意识、潜意识、光明和阴暗。个性化不是摧毁过去的生活，而是重新评估价值观和优先事项，或许外在的成就和成功变得不再那么重要，或许更加重要。剥离那些不再契合自己的东西，重新与内在自我建立连接的旅程。这个生命的阶段邀请你向内探索。\n直面阴影，深层的自我接纳。阴影是荣格哲学中最有力的核心概念之一。阴影代表了你隐藏的部分，包括未实现的梦想，你的恐惧，欲望和脆弱。年轻时我们常常忽略这些部分，以换取成功和社会的认可。真是这种对抗，你才有机会真正的成长。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"中餐的生命力","url":"/%E4%B8%AD%E9%A4%90%E6%8A%B5%E5%BE%A1%E9%A5%AE%E9%A3%9F%E8%A5%BF%E5%8C%96.html","content":"\n中国可能是全球唯一一个能成功抵御饮食西化和快餐化的国家。\n环球扫视\n韩国曾是稻米生产国，2k 年后面粉就成了第一大口粮，导致韩国粮食自给率从 80 年代的自给自足跌到30%，同时韩国年轻人还在加速抛弃传统韩餐，对外宣传的美食也成了韩式炸鸡。这些在日本，泰国，印度等亚洲虽保留传统本土饮食，但年轻人的饮食习惯在快速抛弃传统饮食，拥抱西式吃法。至于菲律宾，非洲，拉美这些早年西方殖民地饮食早已全盘西化，太平洋岛国更夸张，因为 70 年代美国快餐文化的冲击，大量美国快餐食品的边角料 0 关税进入，现在汤加街头很难看到一个瘦子。\n世界级餐饮资本对人类饮食结构的基本判断是，快餐化一定是普通人饮食结构演变的主要方向，全球饮食西化、快餐化，成了蓝星的整体趋势。好像唯独在中国，阻力重重。\n中国生产了全球 80%的罐头，但我们人均年销量只有2公斤，不到美国的 1/10，中国是面条的起源国，作为穷人美食，中国人均方便面销量远低于日韩，也不如越南，甚至还不如一些非面食传统国家。中国人的胃喜欢吃现做出来的热乎乎的饭菜，使得快餐和工业化食品成本相对较高，始终无法大幅攻入底层市场。\n剖析\n法餐、意餐，土餐，有着丰富的烹饪技巧和恰到好处的味蕾把控，都不错，高档的印餐香料的层次感也非常棒，昂贵的上层菜就没有难吃的，但平头老百姓能吃好的却不多。法国人平时就是面包香肠沙拉，德国人吃土豆拌猪肉，美国人吃烤肉淋酱汁，留学生都知道，不是没有好吃的馆子，是真舍不得吃。\n\n护城河\n而中餐不一样，中餐下沉，路边几块钱的炒饭也会放满料打火现做香气扑鼻，几十块的炒菜更是花样丰富，中国能用最简单食材来打造魔法，中国人挑剔的口味和厨师内卷的手艺堪称相辅相成，中国厨师几乎没有不能做的食材，和外国厨师形成反向对比，在中国，每一种食材的最大可能性都会被挖掘出来，中国厨师去到全球都能利用当地特色食材做出特色中餐。\n中国饮食的韧性源自深厚的文明积淀，在《齐民要术》记载的年代，就掌握了「急火快炒」的烹饪智慧，也塑造了中国人食不厌精的味觉审美。而日韩的传统饮食，受限于岛国的地理环境，发展的是以保存性食物为主的饮食文化，日本的饭团，韩国的泡菜，本质都是物质匮乏时期的生存智慧，西式快餐带着工业化的便利性袭来时，这些传统饮食抵抗力就不足了。\n中国的菜系形成的了一套复杂而完备的体系（难以替代），日韩料理多依赖简单加工如生食、蒸煮，新中国成立后，政府整理了散落民间的烹饪秘籍，让传统技艺得以大规模传承。中餐化身一位身怀绝技的武林高手，在平民化市场筑起难以攻破的护城河。\n菜篮子生鲜网络\n不仅是食材多样性，中国对新鲜食材的追求从未停止，今天的菜篮子工程也是饮食传统的现代化延续，当美国主妇开车半小时才能买到一把香菜，巴黎市民为两颗青菜付出半天工资时，中国主妇正在楼下菜市场从容挑选晚餐食材。遍布全国的生鲜供应网络，也是中国抵御饮食西化的秘密武器。中国市民平均步行 15 分钟就能到达一个食材采购点。这种便利性在全球堪称奇迹。\n对「饭」一词的执念\n外国人对饭的理解和中国人根本不在一个量级，白人就算一年不开火，也不耽误他们吃饭。而在中国人们对悲惨生活的一种形容就是一口热乎的都吃不上，中国人在桌子上吃的才是饭，其它形式只能叫随便吃点，外面买的快餐，垃圾食品不是饭，自己做的糊弄餐也不是饭，只能算食物，零食，这种吃撑了也不算饭。\n也不要夜郎自大\n家乡味是所有人刻在骨子里的执着，中国人偏爱中餐偶尔吃上一顿西餐也行，但天天吃西餐保证你生不如死。老外一样不一定适应天天正品中餐。如白人更接受并热爱的是跟自己家乡味接近的食物，如拌酸奶的面条，放醋的手抓饭，炸一切加甜辣酱的组合，全球各地各有所爱。欲罢不能正是的家乡味，你我均难以免俗，你可以不理解，但尊重。\n结语\n虽我们会看到快餐化食物在中国出现的范围和频率变高，但中餐的文化和底蕴是绝不可能被取代的。正餐快餐化和正餐聚餐化会同步发展，中餐店做不大或许是我们的幸运（美国的贫困性肥胖与食品工业紧密结合，戒糖比戒毒都难，肥胖人口和中国数量一样多）。筷子握住的不仅是美食，也是文化延续的密码。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"为什么女性有永久性乳房","url":"/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html","content":"\n题记\n文章围绕的是永久性乳房在自然界作为个100%不利的变异，为何在人类中得以遗传发展的原始层面的探究，不乏犀利的观点，还有和编码领域【不是编程亦可看作程序出错】相关的思想火花。\n当时这篇文章最早出现在译言，那时译言的宣传语还是一个很中二的啥子“百年之前梁启超。。。。。翻译使中国强盛之类的语句”，不过对于上面所有兄弟姐妹的热情和诚意我是100个佩服，甚至也想利用自己的闲余时间贡献一把。访问期间在上面看到过不少有意思的东西，译言被强制关闭过一次，之后就访问的很少了。这篇文章觉得是最有意思，最有思想火花的。在IT行业做的越久，越是觉得中国人在独创性方面越来越被甩得远（在Web2.0 copy american to china的年代这种感觉很明显）。\n这篇文章吧，虽文字确有些多，也希望有人能喜欢，虽然标题比较吓人。\n为什么女性有永久性乳房\n是个问题吗？是的\n很多人可能会认为标题中的这个问题很愚蠢，因为答案很明显：女人有乳房是为了喂养婴儿。实际上，这是一个很好的问题，因为为何几乎所有女性都有乳房是一个谜。大多数女性在目前这个时间并没有分泌乳汁，但是她们拥有乳房。\n如果乳房仅仅是为了喂养婴儿，那么大多数女性就不会拥有它了。如果真是如此，那么乳房只会在怀孕的时候才发育出来，而且在女人们停止母乳喂养之后又会消失。人类中女性在青春期乳房得到发育，而且在年老之后仍然保留乳房，不管她们是否怀孕，这点在动物世界中是独一无二的。它需要一个解释。\n生长乳房是有代价的\n\n小母牛在到了为喂养自己的小牛而产出牛奶的时候乳房才得到发育。一旦小牛断了奶，小母牛（如今是一只“奶牛”）的奶水枯竭，乳房消失。就像任何身体组织一样，生长乳房是有代价的。生长和维持乳房需要营养，而且乳房本身对于快速移动是一个障碍。确实，突出的乳房完全就是不必要的。这种突起物会毁坏海豹那符合流体动力学的外形，它们能够设法在没有乳房的情况下给自己的幼崽喂奶。一个女人在不需要乳房的情况下长出乳房，需要为此付出营养上和敏捷性上的代价。如果这样做有代价，那么它必须有一种益处，来解释为什么人类进化出这种特征。我们知道这个特征是人类所独有的，所以很有可能对此的解释可以从一些其他同样也是仅为人类所特有的特质中找到。\n令人惊讶的是关于这个话题的著作非常少。有少量短篇的论文是很久以前写出来的，而且其中的大多数都被后来的作者所批驳。重复对于许多早期理论的证伪已经没有多少意义了。参阅参考书目以做进一步阅读（特别是Cant, John G.H.1981年发表的那本书）。\n素食的女人，肉食的男人\n我们的祖先是猎人，他们能生存下来主要依靠吃其他的动物。其他的狩猎物种，像狗、猫和鼬，它们的成年雌性可能只有在自己怀孕后期或是照料年幼的后代的时候才停止狩猎。没有乳房，狩猎也足够困难了。所以乳房的阻碍作用被降低到了最小程度——它们只有在分泌乳汁的时候才发育。食草的兽群，像奶牛、绵羊和鹿必须能够比自己在兽群中的邻居跑得更快才能逃脱捕食者，所以拥有无用的乳房就相当于请别人吃你。大多数哺乳动物依靠速度来逃脱被捕食的命运，所以甚至独居的食草动物最好也是在合适的时候再发育乳房。\n劳动分工冲销代价\n然而，人类却不是依赖速度来躲避捕食者的，这是一个非常重要的不同点。很少有会攻击一群人的动物，而且人类会利用团体策略，火、武器、投射物和类似的东西来防御自己。任何强大到足以打倒像成年女性这么大动物的物种，都可以如此轻易地在速度上超过她，以至于脚的速度根本就不是一个问题。人类女性成群地搜寻食物，而在这样做有危险的地方，部落派遣有武装的年轻男孩，偶尔也有更年长的男人，来守卫女人。大多时候女人们都在营地里，在火堆旁边，很少有动物敢到那种地方冒险。因此，人类女性在进化过程中为发育乳房付出的代价相比于其他动物来说小了很多。在更新世（大约起始于两百万年前，终于一万年前，当时地球大多被冰雪覆盖，译者注），很少有怀胎的女性丧命于捕食者口下。她们允许被不分泌乳汁时的乳房妨碍。\n换言之，劳动分工使得未生产时的乳房成为可能。我们父辈祖先的行为像食肉动物，需要能够自由地跑、跳来狩猎，而我们母辈祖先的行为更像食草动物，成群地收集食物。一个未产妇（nullipara）是还没有生过孩子的女性。很奇怪的是，我们都知道“处女”这个词，却很少有人知道“未产妇”这个词。\n以上我们解释了进化出存在于不分泌乳汁时的乳房是如何成为可能的，但是这距离解释为什么它们最终被进化出来还有很远的距离。\n美丽的羽毛，美丽的乳房？\n一旦我们确立了进化出乳房的可能，那么持进化论的科学家可以争论，乳房可以进化为性别特征。它们可能就像孔雀的尾巴一样，是对于异性的主观的信号。孔雀的尾巴是很大的、扇状的、绿色的，上面有很多“眼状斑点”。其他的鸟类拥有长的、逐渐变细的尾巴，或是鲜明的红色羽毛。似乎进化出什么类型的羽毛并不重要，只要它可以被辨识，属于每一物种，而且引起异性对它的偏爱。一旦雌孔雀开始认为带有斑点的、扇状的绿色尾巴是迷人的，那么它们就乐于和符合这种描述而且拥有最美丽的尾巴的雄性交配。人类的乳房也可能是以相同的主观的方式进化的。这可能会导致我们相信“费舍尔压倒性优势选择学说（Fisherian run-away selection）”，并迅速地致使一种物种进化出例如颜色鲜亮的羽毛、喉部肉垂和鸡冠，以及或许乳房这样的特征。费舍尔的逻辑是说一旦男人发觉乳房很迷人，那么女人就有选择的压力使自己长出乳房，因此她们变得更加迷人，于是又有更大的压力使男人们认为她们迷人。\n经典的费舍尔的例子就是孔雀的尾巴，我要向已经读过这个例子很多遍的进化论者道歉。然而在孔雀中，雄性是更加美丽的。一只雄孔雀的尾巴似乎有种天生的美，人类因此认为它美丽，不过它们并不是为了让我们观赏而设计的。人类的乳房呈现在观赏者面前一层套一层的圆环。我们很容易想象在这样的设计中也有一种天生的美丽。在人类中，这是相反的：女性是更美丽的，而男性则都令人惊讶得丑陋。在大多数物种当中，雌性是生育后代的，它们必须对于掩饰这类行为比较敏感，所以不能过于艳丽。不过即使大多数雄性因为阻碍行动的羽毛而被猎杀，这也没有关系，因为剩下的雄性会对所有雌性受精，而且由于它们设法生存了下来，它们很可能会拥有最好的基因。这种情况最极端的表现形式就是某些物种中雄性很少甚至不参与抚养后代。然而，人类中男性比较多地投入到抚养后代中，因此男人更加有价值。正如之前所说，即使被乳房阻碍，成年女性由于被捕食造成的死亡数目仍然如此之低，以至于上述这条法则在人类中性别是反过来的。\nGeoffrey Miller在自己的《The Mating Mind》(2000)一书中令人信服地论述了乳房是由性的选择（sexual selection）来选择的。就像其他类似的特征一样，它们凸显出性别间的差别；它们在骨骼上无从辨认；它们的大小在个体间存在很大差异；它们在青春期后开始变大；它们在性兴奋的时候充血；所有的文化都将其视为性别符号，而且很多文化以切去乳房作为一种性侵犯；在全世界它们都被凸显以示性感，或是被掩饰以减少有关性的注意。乳房大小差异如此之大是表明它们不像手或眼睛那么有实用价值的线索。\n不自然的设计规划\n在分泌乳汁之前乳房主要由脂肪组成。乳房在哺乳期开始大约八个月后产出最多的乳汁。然而，在最初八个月的哺乳期中，乳房的大小是最大的。似乎实际上脂肪阻碍了乳汁的产生，所以需要八个月的时间来改变乳房的构造，来达到最高的效率，并除去装饰性的脂肪。\n乳头位于那个位置并不是用来高效地哺乳的。当我们要打破一个桶，放出里面的液体时，我们不会在桶一半高的地方开口。一个更加高效的方法是在桶底开一个口。这样可以更好地得到乳汁（重力喂养），并且让婴儿更容易吮吸。对于乳头位置的一种可能的解释是，当它指向上面时显得更加诱人。同时这样不会显得下垂，因为它几乎从不直接指向下面（看看下文就可以知道为什么这点如此重要）。另一种解释是这种设计在几何学上的完美让观看者可以看到最微小的瑕疵。眼睛可以轻易察觉一个圆是否是一个正圆，它内部的一个圆是否和它同心。如果乳房的外形是用来观赏的，那么它的设计中就应该有些方面是特别难以做到正好合适的。\n装饰作用-越大越好吗？\n乳房在不哺乳的时候有非常重要的装饰作用。\n所以，越大越好，对吗？\n如果费舍尔压倒性优势选择学说能够解释人类乳房的进化，那么可能会有人认为乳房会长得越来越大。不过，这个过程中有许多制约因素。\n首先，乳房还有另外一个重要的功能：某一天它们需要被用来给婴儿哺乳。拥有很大乳房的女性描述说她们很难用母乳喂养婴儿。婴儿难以吸住乳头，而且他们可能会窒息。被严重拖累的母亲往往需要用双手来喂养婴儿。在我们祖先进化过程中所处的环境（进化适应环境（Environment of Evolutionary Adaption））中，母乳喂养应该是很重要的。如果没有母亲的乳汁，婴儿会死亡[1]。母乳喂养需要很多时间，而更新世的婴儿可能需要比现在的婴儿所需更长的母乳喂养期。低估由于需要用双手来喂养孩子而付出的时间上的代价是不明智的。频繁的少量喂养对于母亲来说远比偶尔的大量喂养更加高效和舒适。乳汁在乳房中贮存了没几个小时后就会导致乳汁分泌的迅速较少，而乳房也会由于充血而感到不适。我们的母辈祖先希望继续采集食物和喂养婴儿的工作，而喂养每个小孩可能需要两年的时间。\n另一种错误的“越大越好”的论据是认为男人觉得丰满的乳房性感，因为他们知道这样自己的孩子就不会挨饿了。实际上，未产妇的乳房主要含有的是脂肪，而不是可以分泌乳汁的组织。它们几乎完全无法表明将来这个女人能够分泌多少乳汁。乳房通常在哺乳期的前八个月变大。另外，能够分泌比实际需要量更多的乳汁并不是一种优势。一旦一个女人为了喂养孩子已经分泌了足够多的乳汁，任何剩余的产出都是浪费的废物。几乎所有女人都可以分泌足够多的乳汁来喂养一个孩子。乳汁的分泌会增加，以满足需求，所以一个生育了一对双胞胎的女人会分泌更多的乳汁[2]。\n另外一个对于乳房大小的限制是它越是丰满，重力对它的不利影响就越快显露出来。下垂的乳房是年龄的象征，而在所有的文化中，年轻女人都是迷人的。一个年轻的新娘很可能会为男人生下更多的孩子，所以长出大到加速自己衰老的乳房是很不明智的。\n还有一个限制则是一对东西长得越大，就越是难以让它们保持对称。身体的对称是健康的表现，而且它似乎在包括人类的多数物种中被用来作为评判配偶的一个重要标准。只有非常健康的女人才可以长出一对丰满而又对称的乳房。\n因此，可能费舍尔压倒性优势选择学说在人类乳房进化中得到了体现，使乳房成为了性的装饰，但是一部分限制因素随后又限制了人类外形的变化程度。\n性感对吗\n它们很性感，你真傻！\n对于这个谜团的下一个显而易见的答案是男人觉得乳房性感，所以女人进化出乳房。然而，需要再说一次的是，这还不够。是的，男人的确认为乳房有性的吸引力，但是问题是为什么他们这样认为？可能有人说我们喜欢吃，所以去获取食物。这不是“我们为什么吃东西”的答案。我们吃东西是因为不吃东西会死。我们喜欢吃东西是因为过去那些喜欢吃东西的人更努力地获取食物，于是因此遗传下来了更多基因。愉悦除了自己本身还有一个目的。男人认为乳房性感必定是因为它们是某些值得知晓的东西的信号。男人们尤其认为乳房性感，这表明乳房是女人某样优良的特性的非常可靠的指示物——它们是“诚实的指示物”。\n一种对于以上理论的反驳是在一些女人习惯于袒胸的文化中，男人并不认为乳房性感。我要驳斥这种观点：我们不说女人的脸是性感的，多半是因为我们一直都可以看到它。但是如果我给一个典型的英国人看一张Celia Johnson（四十年代英国著名影星）的照片，那么他肯定会说自己在照片中看到的是一个有魅力的女人。女人身上任何向男人传达出其优良特质的身体部位都是性感的。\n敌对理论\nWroclaw（波兰一城市）的Boguslaw Pawlowski博士在1999年提出了一种对于永久乳房的解释。他写道当人类不再生活于树上和森林中，而是转移到平原以后，他们进化出了一层皮下脂肪用以隔挡新环境中的寒冷。雌性激素同时负责女孩体内这种脂肪的形成和乳房的发育。乳房是拥有适量脂肪的象征，而男人们认为这样性感，因为胖的女性往往生出更易于生存的胖小孩。这个理论的一个障碍在于，男人肯定也能从这种皮下脂肪中受益，然而男人体内的这种皮下脂肪大大少于女性。他用了雌性激素会“扰乱男性的男性化过程”，以及男性需要变得更加敏捷以进行狩猎和打斗来解释这个问题。我认为即使一层脂肪可以起作用，那么一个敏捷灵活的男人也可能会在夜里冻僵。男人有时候也需要睡觉。\n那层脂肪对于女人很重要，这点是可以肯定的。女人体内需要拥有一定量的脂肪才能够生育[3]。以前，要想变胖要困难许多。现代的饮食让它变得容易。如今，多数成功的职业女性田径运动员瘦得无法生育，他们不排卵。\n进化让男人发觉能够生育的女人迷人，而不能生育的女人就没有吸引力。多数男人自然更喜欢迷人的模特的曲线美，而不是无生育能力的女运动员的精瘦身材（Polivy 1986）。这为女人增加一点点脂肪提供了足够的理由。在我们祖先所生活的过去，女人不用狩猎也意味着她们可以肆意地增加脂肪。而食物的储存和隔离很可能也是有用的，因为为了略显丰满的体态所付出的代价并不高。\n对于男人来说乳房可以作为女人拥有了足够脂肪的标志。我同样也不觉得这是个好的解释。人类利用对别人的一瞥来搜集关于对方的信息的能力是很强的。女人可以简单地用拥有多得足以生育的脂肪来向男人发出信号，告诉他们自己拥有足够的脂肪来生育。这样就可以显示了[4]。而且，如果男人把乳房看成是拥有生育需要的足够的脂肪的信号，那么女人可能会进化为有的长乳房，有的不长乳房，以此作为一种欺骗性的信号。她们可以不长乳房，来隐藏自己的脂肪，或者可以利用不足的脂肪长出具有欺骗作用的乳房，来显示自己丰满而能够生育。这和我们的观察不符。**如果乳房仅仅是脂肪贮存量的一种信号，那么男人为什么会认为丰满的乳房和苗条的身材的结合是有吸引力的？**为什么一个非常胖的女人仍然长着一对乳房？Singh（1995）发现无论在长期还是短期的恋爱中，不管女人其他部位长得怎么样，男人都更喜欢丰满而对称的乳房。\n在我看来，Pawlowski的理论太过依赖于激素的作用了。认为激素有一些先天的作用是一个常见的错误。试想在一场战争中，某个男人是炮兵的前进观察员。他被告知如果看到敌人在西面的山谷中就点燃绿色的信号弹，而如果看到敌人在北面的山谷中就点燃白色的信号弹。他在北面山谷看到了敌人，然后点燃了白色的信号弹。几分钟后，他看到了敌军部队中的巨大爆炸。“我的天呐！”他想到，“这枚信号弹的威力真大！”实际上，信号弹对于敌人没有任何作用。真正起作用的是传递给在他身后成百上千炮兵的那个任意的信号。炮兵对于信号做出回应，遵循了事先预定的计划，向地图上的一处网格参考点开火。如果炮兵们不在那里，或者他们没有被告知白色信号弹代表的意义，那么信号弹就不会有任何效果。在另一个星期里，可能又会安排不同的密码，白色信号弹可能会代表完全不同的意义。\n在动物中，激素就好像那些信号弹。他们没有先天的作用，对它们的响应是可变的。同样的激素对于某个物种可能有某种作用，而对于另一个物种中又有另一种作用。它可以在某种动物生命中的不同时期对其产生不同的作用。同种激素在同一物种的不同个体间可以产生不同的反应。生物进化出了对于激素的存在的不同反应。人类女性进化出了乳房和皮下脂肪，作为对于雌性激素的响应。她们同时也进化出了对于同种化学物质的其他响应。如果睾丸激素既导致了深沉的嗓音，又导致了胡子的生成，那么它真是一种不同寻常的化学物质。事实是它只是一种信号，是进化让男人对于这种信号做出长出胡子和声音变得低沉的回应。他们可能会进化成以在耳朵上长出很多绿色的小斑点作为对于睾丸激素的回应，但是他们没有那样进化。\n同一种激素导致女人长出乳房和皮下脂肪不能解释女人长有乳房这个事实。患有库兴氏综合征的女人由于激素问题变得十分肥胖，但是他们并不长出丰满的乳房。在这里，不是雌性激素，而是皮质醇在起作用[5]。女人的身体对这个信号做出身体变胖的回应，而不是长出巨大的乳房。如果脂肪是用于隔挡寒冷，那么在乳房中增加脂肪并不有效。似乎身体可以产生一种机理，在不生长乳房的情况下长出用以隔离寒冷的脂肪，如果身体可以产生这种机理，那么它就会产生这种机理。导致永久的乳房的应该还有另外原因。\n大障碍\n我认为多数其他理论失误的地方在于它们在时间上都没有回溯到足够早的年代。我们有充足的理由推测曾经有一段时间我们的母辈祖先在不哺乳的时候是没有乳房的。我们和黑猩猩有着共同的祖先，而它们就没有永久的乳房。在过去的某个时期，原始人只在需要分泌乳汁的时候才长出乳房。如果永久的乳房是作为性的装饰物而得到进化的，那么我们首先必须思考当时的男人的色欲是什么。\n如果乳房只在需要乳汁的时候才得到发育，那么当一个男人看到一个女人拥有乳房的时候，他就知道她可能将要生产了，她正在生产，或者她正在给婴儿哺乳。一个孕妇是无法再怀上另一个孩子的。一个正在生产的女人是很忙的。而一个正在用母乳喂养孩子的女人是很难怀孕的。母乳喂养是一种有效的避孕剂。如今通过现代高脂肪的膳食可能可以让正在母乳喂养阶段的女人怀孕，但是在更新世，可以做到这点的必需是一个罕见的营养良好的女人。在以狩猎为生的群居人群中，母乳喂养使分娩不会过于集中。因此，一对乳房对于一个注意观察的远古的男人来说，就很像是现代社会中一块写着“我现在不能生育。不要费力气尝试和我交配，你只会浪费自己的精子”的霓虹灯标牌。\n简而言之，乳房曾经并不是催情剂，相反它只会让人“扫性”。人们认为更新世时期的女人花自己生育期的一半时间来分泌乳汁，远多于如今的女性。因此，女性是否有乳房对于当时的男人来说是一个非常重要的信号。\n男人会进化出适合于当时的女人的好色本性。因此永久乳房的进化还有一个巨大的障碍有待清除。首先在生育之前就长出乳房的女人肯定在吸引优良配偶的时候遇到了巨大的困难。一个男人的本能会警告他不要和这样的女人交配，因为他看上去已经怀孕了，所以她的第一个孩子不会是自己的，而且她在很长一段时间里都不能产下自己的孩子。他可能会被误会，但是如果他依据自己的信念行事，那么这个女人就只有很小的机会和他交配。\n一旦这个障碍被清除，那么乳房就可以自由地作为费舍尔的主观特征进化，或是以各种良好基因的广告的身份得以进化。直到那以前，所有其他的解释都是无用的。\n女人是特殊的\n女人是人类，尽管男性观察者会告诉你不同的结论，而人类和其他的动物在很多方面是不同的。正如我用人类的独特性来解释为什么乳房可以不用顾忌累赘的代价而得到进化一样，我会用同样的方法通过人类的独特性来解释最早拥有永久的乳房的女人是如何设法克服她们的问题的。\n如果最早拥有永久乳房的女人是女人特质的优良实例，那么她们设法说服一些男人和她们交配就显然不是那么难以置信的了。女人也有性欲（我在这方面是杰出的权威），所以她们有实现这个举措的动机，特别是在遭遇了一段时间的白眼之后。\n女人是秘密的\n\n另一个关于人类的奇怪的事情是女性是偷偷地排卵的\n\n对此现在广为接受的理论是女人偷偷排卵，以此让男人们猜测。如果一个男人知道一个女人生育能力不强，那么他就不太可能去努力讨好她的的孩子，讨好她，给他提供肉或者类似的东西。相反，他会有动机去别的地方寻找更有生育能力的配偶。雄性黑猩猩只有在看到雌性拥有丰满的粉红色臀部这个表明其生育能力的信号时才会对雌性产生兴趣。一个被蒙在鼓里的男人需要和一个女人有一种长时间的契约，需要在让她怀孕之前和她交配很多次。最近一项研究显示，女人在自己处于生育能力的顶峰时更有可能和性感的男人上演风流韵事。这些都是女人的优势，同时也是男人的劣势。如果女人是为了自己的优势而进化出这种保密的，那么她们仍然只在怀孕的时候发育乳房的事实就会有毁掉这整个效果的威险。乳房意味着哺乳，而哺乳意味着孩子和暂时的不能生育。这是男人可以利用的优势。\n我认为进化出永久乳房的一个原因是为了维持秘密排卵的绝对优势。我的想法是秘密排卵和永久乳房大约实在同意时期进化出来的。\n她们是怎么做到的？\n第一批拥有永久乳房的狡猾的女人能够得到自己地区中最好的精子。她们能够做到这些多亏了许多的优势，包括如下所有：\n女人可以说话，而且可以比其他任何动物更加有效地撒谎。虽然她们有乳房这个缺点，这些说话和撒谎的能力使得她们可以得到她们梦想的男人和精子。人类是生存时间很长的社会动物。一个男人可以因为一个女人的人格魅力、智慧和善良而爱上她。当一个和如此熟悉的女人交欢的机会摆在眼前时——这种情节他可能已经想象过一百遍了——他会很容易被说服去和她交欢，即使他对她胸前那对摆动的东西有一点点厌恶。他总是可以闭上眼睛不去看它们。\n那些第一批拥有永久乳房的女人的伴侣很可能不会对于自己的女人是否只和自己交欢过于警惕，因为很显然那些女人的生育能力并不是很强。当一个女人生育了一个孩子，因此证明自己有生育能力的时候，她的伴侣只会在她的乳房消失的时候才会堤防自己的情敌。直到那以前，他会错误地以为自己可以放松警惕。\n男人们不会认为有乳房的女人是永久没有生育能力并因此放弃她们。他们觉得，最终，一个女人的乳房会变平，她们也会再一次变得有生育能力。于是，男人总是费力气去和自己区域里的最好的女人发展关系，甚至是在这些女人没有生育能力的时期。一个即使是没有性爱的确立的恋情，对于希望和男人有一段风流韵事的女人来说也是有利的。这是另一个人类的特点。虽然雄性黑猩猩可以无视无生育能力的雌性，但是男人这样做会显得更加愚蠢。\n与那些女人同时代的人和如今的女人很可能有不同的本能。明显的月经期使一种生物不能进化成在没有生育能力的时候也保持强烈的性欲。女人只有当处于生理周期中有生育能力的时期时才会进化得较为性饥渴。即使在今天，这仍然是她们性欲最强的时期。男人看到女人长着乳房就会自然地觉得她不会给自己戴绿帽子，因为她不会性饥渴。因此，不但要感谢她们放松警惕的男性伴侣，同时还要感谢她们的那些配偶正相对来说经历着缺少性爱时期的女性对手，第一批拥有秘密的经期和永久乳房的女人可以更加容易地和不同的男人做爱。\n有可能当时男人拥有的一些本能促使他们为拥有乳房的女人提供食物，这种本能如今可能已经遗失了。有乳房的女人要用母乳喂养孩子，所以需要一些额外的食物。男人看到自己有乳房的伴侣会继续为她提供食物，继续为她外出打猎，她却自己在别处交欢，而且他有可能在她抚养作为果实的私生子的过程中继续赡养她。\n由通奸所产下的孩子往往比平均水平的孩子更加优秀，因为那些女人们用自己的力量获得了最好的精子，而且在一开始她们成功证明了自己很可能是高质量的女人。因此这些女人的基因有很大几率得到了复制。\n几乎可以肯定，这些拥有永久乳房的女人因为乳房的存在往往不会被认为是迷人的。不过，同样可以肯定的是，她们确实克服了这个劣势。现在的女人都有乳房就是证明。如果没有任何男人愿意和有乳房的女人交配，那么如今唯一拥有乳房的女人就只能分泌乳汁了。\n进化的压力迫使男人摆脱了认为乳房令人反感的这个过时的本能。这种进化的压力真的很伟大。\n重大的变革\n突然间，男人们的世界被改变了。女人身上的乳房让他们失去性欲的这种本能曾经是一件好事，但是过了不久这种本能却成了一种劣势。如果在一个所有女人都有永久乳房的部落里，一个男人是仅有的一个不因为女人的乳房而完全失去性欲的人，那么他就会成为整个下一代人的父亲，而男性的本能就会迅速被改变。我不是说如此极端的或者和我的假设完全一模一样的事情突然间就发生了，但是我觉得男性本能的改变从正常的进化标准来看是相当迅速的。\n本能是由基因编码的。基因由DNA串组成，而DNA又使用一种语言，Gattaca（一部科幻电影，影片中社会通过对每个人DNA的分析来决定你生命中的归属，译者注）。通过英语来说，一个男人的本能可能颇为简单，就像如下这样：\n“看女人的胸前是否有一对圆的、摆动的东西。如果她们有这样的东西，就会觉得性欲消退。那对东西越大、越圆、越是摆动，这种感觉就越是强烈。”\n可能有人会争论说，考虑到女人身体上的变化，男人可能会完全删除这种大脑中的程序。然而，一个相对小很多的变异可以把这种程序改变为：\n“看女人的胸前是否有一对圆的、摆动的东西。如果她们有这样的东西，就会觉得性欲被激发。那对东西越大、越圆、越是摆动，这种感觉就越是强烈。”\n只有一个词被改变了。这种本能差不多和之前是相同的，它同样定义了乳房，而且基于对这样被定义了的东西的评估加入了一种情绪，一种和性欲有关的情绪。我的猜测是将男人的本能从一个极端变到另一个极端要比将其从一个极端变为中立容易很多。而且，如果进化确实进行得很快，那么男人们可能会有竞争发展出更合适的本能的竞赛。最简单的一种解决方案可能会赢得这个竞赛，不是因为这是最好的手段，而是因为这是最快捷的手段。在一个大多数男人认为乳房使人性欲消退，同时很多女人都拥有永久乳房的世界里，一个觉得乳房正向地刺激性欲的男人相对于那些对于乳房感觉不太强烈的男人来说，可能会遗传下来更多的基因。男人对于乳房的色欲是进化过程中的一个伤疤——它并不是最理想有效的，但是这条道路最后引领我们走到了现在。\n在进化使男人认为乳房性感之前，女人先进化出了永久的乳房。这两种变化可能在时间上有重叠，但是这个过程是由乳房的进化开始的，而不是男人对乳房的性欲。如果乳房的进化先发生，那么对于乳房的厌恶对于男人来说就是灾难性的。从最不现实的极端情况来看，在一个所有女人都有乳房的世界里，一个讨厌乳房的男人很可能根本不会育种。为了赶紧避免这种灾难，大自然会做得过分一点，给男人一种和乳房的价值不成比例的对乳房的本能好感。男人们可能会发现乳房如此性感，因为他们曾经觉得它是如此明显地使性欲消退。那种厌恶相当强烈，就和如今男人对于和老女人性交的厌恶一样强烈。男人们完全没有理由去和一个没有生育能力的人性交，所以本能会竭力阻止这种情况的发生。\n我怀疑这是正确的一个理由是，我观察到男人们几乎认为所有的乳房都是性感的。基本上，男人们根据吸引力做出对于身边的女人的定性的评判。一个女人拥有皮肤并不让她显得性感。所有女人都有皮肤。光滑、健康、没有斑点、富有活力的有弹性的皮肤是有吸引力的，而粗糙、有斑点、没有弹性的皮肤当然是令人反感的。男人是被女人皮肤的品质所吸引，而不是被皮肤本身所吸引。男人们确实给与乳房一些定性的评价，但是几乎所有年轻女人的乳房都会增强，而不是降低自己的魅力。一种相反的认为所有乳房都降低性欲的本能可以对此做出解释。\n另一个让我们相信这种假设的理由是，如果男人好色的本性刚好和女人的生育能力完美地相配，那么男人会认为丰满的乳房最没有吸引力，因为女人的乳房在她用母乳喂养小宝宝的时候是最大的，而在此时她是没有生育能力的。男人会认为娇小的乳房更加性感，因为女人的乳房随着她们持续哺乳而变小。而随着哺乳的避孕作用的消退，女人们则渐渐变得更加有生育能力。这很显然和我们在现实世界中所看到的并不一致。\n而还有一个让我们认为男人对于乳房的本能从厌恶变为被吸引的理由在于，男人们认为超大的乳房是有吸引力的。现在整形手术可以创造出在更新世难以想像的丰满乳房。有些女人通过丰胸使自己的乳房大到了可笑的地步，她们然后去跳脱衣舞或是做平面模特，并因此赚到了很多钱。似乎这样看来男人们头脑里对色欲编码的本能非常简单。这让我想起了一个我看过的实验。实验中在一种海鸥的幼鸟面前呈现了很多不同的东西，根据记录它们经常去啄那些东西。成年的这种海鸥在它们的喙的下侧有一个略带红色的斑点。当幼鸟去啄那块斑点的时候，成鸟就将咽下去的食物喂给幼鸟。而当成鸟的斑点被颜料涂掉后，幼鸟就几乎不去啄成鸟的喙了。大多数幼鸟都去啄一个用有光泽的鲜红色指甲油涂过的乒乓球。看上去幼鸟似乎并没有留意到一个活生生的、会动的、熟悉的、海鸥形状的物体在他们身边，它们没有留意过去是谁喂养它们的，也没有留意从海上捕食回来的父母身上的气味。它们的本能只是“去啄圆的、红色的东西的冲动，越圆越红越好。”我觉得男人对于乳房有一种类似的本能。确实，男人相对假的乳房更喜欢真的，但是不能否认的是他们着迷于巨大的乳房。\n最后的障碍\n如果最早拥有永久乳房的女人是女人特质的粗劣的样品的话，那么选择和她们交配的男人可能如今只有很少的后代。只有当那些拥有处于原始形态的“累赘物”的女人至少是合格的生育机器的时候，进化才会偏向于那些认为这种装饰有吸引力的男人。我需要证明虽然这是一种奇怪的变异，但是那些最先拥有永久存在的乳房的女人是能够胜任成为我们祖先的这项工作。\n如果你跟随我最后部分的论据，那么你就会同意这种理论是围绕着这最后一个障碍的。是的，使男人被最有生育能力和高质量的女人之外的其他东西吸引的色欲是竞争不过更加合适的色欲的。不过有一种色欲是有竞争力的，它使男人被那些不比别的女人好也不比别的女人差的女人吸引，并且给别的竞争对手戴绿帽子。一旦这些女人生下了一个孩子并存活了下来，那么她们至少是合格的，而且她们会得到最好的精子，于是生下的孩子至少会和他们的母亲一样优秀。\n进化是一个有很大随机性的过程。有可能最早拥有永久乳房的女人正好就是女性特质的良好的样品，即使她们不能用双手来跑步。\n未产妇加入其中\n在过去某个时期男人的色欲被改变成认为乳房是由吸引力的。一旦男人开始发展这种色欲，那么对于未产妇来说，看上去和比她们更成熟的竞争对手相似成为了她们的优势。我猜测先是女人进化出不会在母乳喂养结束后消失的乳房，然后这导致了男人进化产生对于乳房的色欲，接着，未产妇对这种新出现的色欲做出回应，进化出了乳房。\n如果男人认为乳房性感，那么一个年轻的女人拥有乳房就会好于没有乳房。这样，她就更有可能赢得一个更好的伴侣，然后更早地开始生育，并生下和养育更多的孩子。她拥有的乳房没有任何分泌乳汁的作用。它除了让男人们觉得这个女人性感之外没有任何作用。在过去，年轻女人不会因为没有乳房而显得没有吸引力，但是一旦一部分女人拥有了永久乳房，那么所有的女人都必须承担这个负担。\n如今的现状\n现在男人的确认为乳房是有吸引力的，而且乳房如今是女人永久存在的特征。一旦人类进化到达这一步，乳房和对于乳房的色欲就开始被性的选择影响，作为费舍尔特征进化。一个被性的选择选中的特征就是它往往有很大的差别。人类的乳房大小有很大的变化范围。似乎乳房现在已经成了一种符合性的选择的特征。\n孔雀的尾巴能够得到进化很大程度上是因为这是一种优良基因的诚实的信号。如果它是任何一种关于不良基因的信号，那么它就不会得到进化了。为了生存和长出美丽的尾巴，孔雀必须健康、强壮、没有寄生虫，而且营养充足。所以当雌孔雀挑选雄孔雀的时候，如果一个雄孔雀有着巨大的、炫丽的尾巴，它就是一只好的孔雀。如果雌孔雀喜欢单调的、不对称的、损坏了的尾巴，那么她们很可能就会选择营养不良、多次险些逃脱、体内有寄生虫的雄孔雀。于是，她们就无法使自己的基因和最优良的基因结合。如果人类的乳房就和孔雀的尾巴一样，那么我们就会预计某些乳房会比其他的乳房更有吸引力，而且这些乳房是最难长出的乳房。\nJ.T. Manning (1997) 指出，女人体内雌性激素的高含量和较差的免疫系统是有联系的。这就说明只有十分健康的女人才有本钱拥有高含量的雌性激素。通过给一种障碍做宣传，丰满的乳房就像是孔雀的尾巴。正如孔雀尽管有尾巴还可以生存和茁壮成长一样，尽管免疫系统被抑制，但是女人仍然可以生存。\n一个让拥有丰满乳房的女人性感的原因在于，她告诉人们自己容易怀孕。这可能是由于丰满的乳房是雌性激素充足的标志，而雌性激素的一种作用是使卵子的细胞膜——透明带更有可渗透性。它还能够影响子宫颈内粘液的pH值。因此，精子能够更容易地对一个乳房丰满的女人的卵子受精。请注意这部分推理没有解释女人为什么会长出乳房，但是它解释了为什么男人认为丰满的乳房比娇小的乳房更加性感。上面这两段都将激素的影响用来作为论据的一部分，所以它被我之前关于激素的理论削弱了。然而，现在我谈到的是现在乳房的差异，而不是乳房为何会得到进化，在这样的语境下，这条论据就变得有力多了。\n我先前提到过丰满的乳房会更快的下垂这一事实对于乳房的大小是一种限制。可能有人会争论，丰满而有活力的乳房因此是年轻的证据。对于一个有短期交配策略的女人来说这可能是有利的，虽然她在将来会为此付出代价。我将其视为一个很不重要的因素，如果在乳房的进化过程中，这是一个主要的影响因素，那么我会预测进化使女人拥有一种被改进了的乳房，它在女人年轻的时候丰满，而随后逐渐变小，于是这样就可以将下垂的缺陷尽量减小。而且，还有很多其他关于年轻的信号，例如年轻的皮肤。我们还可以相应地指出，色情行业模特的职业生涯会在她们丰胸之后变得更长。有人可能会说这种丰满的人工乳房可以成功地让女人看上去更年轻。不过也有可能被丰满的乳房激起的性欲仅仅弥补了男人看出她们已经不再年轻的这个事实。我曾经考虑用一张照片来阐明这点，但是后来决定不这么做。\n对称是健康的一种良好的体现。很多研究有力地说明人类和其他生物将对称的身体视为良好的身体。人类的某些部分尤其难以长得对称。脸就是其中之一，而人们鉴别一个人是否美丽很大程度上要看脸部。小的乳房容易长得对称，但随着乳房变大，长得对称就变得越来越难，而且任何的不对称都更明显地被体现出来。长出丰满而不对称的乳房就是将自己的畸形告知别人，而这对于女人生育的可能性是不利的。Manning和其他人（1997根据1996的版本修订）指出乳房丰满的女人其乳房惊人的对称，远比通常意义上典型的身体部位对称得多。这说明只有有能力长出对称而丰满的乳房的女人才会长出丰满的乳房，这正好符合它是体现女人健康的一种宣传这一说法。对称的问题可能可以从Manning（1997）的发现中得到反映。他发现已婚女性的乳房更加对称，且略小于未婚女性的乳房。再一次提醒大家，这只是解释了丰满乳房的性感，而不能解释乳房的存在。\nMiller（2000）提出单一的给人印象深刻的性装饰物就足够了。一只孔雀如果长了一条无比美丽的尾巴，那么它必需是非常健康的。它没有必要长出两条这样的尾巴来证明自己。一条尾巴是一个诚实的信号，而一个诚实的信号就是证据。Miller声称，拥有幽默、音乐、演说以及其他才能的人脑是一种性的装饰物。这就意味着一个很聪明的女人用自己的智慧就已经向世界证明了她拥有良好的基因和健康。她并不需要用丰满的乳房来赢得属于自己的男人。一个智力较低的女人就需要做些事情来证明自己是值得男人的求爱的。如果她没有足够的智慧让一个男人待在自己身边很多年，经常和自己做爱，并且和自己一起抚养孩子，那么她至少可以证明自己容易怀孕，以此做为弥补。男人们会认为这种女人是尤其有吸引力的，因为她们似乎向男人提供了彩票的头奖：一个不需要为之承担抚养义务的孩子。\n女人不同的行为和她们不同类型的魅力是相吻合的。这点得到了很多观察结果的支持。比方说，身材迷人，而脸蛋不太美丽的女人更有可能沉溺于一夜情，而且早三年失去贞节。她们也更看重自己伴侣身体上的吸引力，而在其他方面倾向于表现得更有男子气概（Mikach和Bailey, 1999）。这有可能一部分是由于一个女人出生前在子宫里，而出生后会接触到雄性激素。一些女人两种性激素含量都很高，而雄性激素让人变得好色。乳房丰满的女人第一次月经来的更早，而更少结婚（Manning, J.T, et al., 1997）。这表明女人的本能被微调成对她们的生殖最为有利的情况，同时也说明乳房是性感的。一个很可能因为美貌和智慧获得长远的成功的女人，可能会长出较小的乳房，并且在失去贞节之前等待更长的时间。对于女人来说，另一种选择则是尽早变得尽可能的性感，并且尽早开始生育。这并不意味着她们对于和自己性交的男人不挑剔，但是这意味着她们比较不关心那些男人会和自己相伴多久。她们可以因为性感，而不是聪明，来得到最好的精子，但是她们只能在自己年轻的时候用这种方法得到最好的精子，所以她们“去争取这些东西”。根据推测，高含量的性激素，包括雌性激素和雄性激素，和较低的智力水平之间是有联系的，而这正好符合我们上面的说法。这同时也和另一个常见的现象相吻合：女人们很看不起那些胸部丰满而水性杨花的情敌。\n拥有乳房的另一个好处是它扩大了胸部的大小，同时减小了腰部的相对大小。对于一个观察者来说，如果女人拥有乳房，那么她的腰部看上去就更细。男人会觉得看上去很有生育能力的女人是性感的，而孕妇是没有生育能力的，所以看上去腰部没有凸出的体型让女人更加性感（参见我对于肥胖的大腿的理论）。\n所以，女人既然需要一直“带着”乳房，似乎她们中的很多人已经接受了长出一对优良的乳房带来的麻烦。\n同时，男人被一种并不理想的本能所束缚。他们的欲望被一对无用的充斥着脂肪的袋子所点燃。然而，男人却承担不起失去这种本能的损失。不分泌乳汁的乳房就好像核弹一样——我们需要它只是因为别人也有这种东西。\n注释说明\n1.我相信用其他动物的乳汁（最好不要是牛奶）是有可能可以将孩子养大的，因为它们含有丰富的钠。很显然狗奶是可以的。婴儿一开始不能消化固体，因为他们的肠子还没有发育完全，而且他们不能很好地排出固体或者生成所有必需的酶。用血液来喂养婴儿是行不通的。血液中没有足够的能量。它只含有一点点葡萄糖和非常少的脂肪。 ↩2.吮吸导致母亲体内催产素和催乳素的释放。催产素产生贮存的乳汁；催乳素催发出更多的乳汁。吮吸的越多，产生的乳汁也越多。 ↩3.要出现第一次的月经，一个女孩需要积累相当于自己体重17%的脂肪。到脂肪重量达到体重的27%时，女人的生育能力仍然相对较低。在性成熟以后，如果这个指标降至22%，则会导致月经停止（Gallup 1982） ↩4.Tovée, Cornelissen et al. (1999, 2001) 指出人们在评判同胞的身体质量指数（Body Mass Index）的时候是非常准确的 ↩5.库兴氏综合症是由过多的皮质醇引起的。皮质醇是（在其他东西中）重要的激素，它含量过高最典型的原因就是药物或者肿瘤。皮质醇虽然和合成代谢类固醇（anabolic steroid，一种加速肌肉生长的药物，译者注）有关，但是它并不是导致后青春期脂肪贮存的主要激素。雌性激素才是其真正原因 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"乌合之众","url":"/%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%88%E4%B9%8B%E4%BC%97.html","content":"\n此书之所以这么标新立异，与作者信奉的研究哲学分不开：不受外界观点教条影响是发现真理的唯一途径。\n在这样的指导思想下，他不怕自己观点与当代所有派别的观点相左，这样的勇猛自然离真相更进一步。因为一旦属于某一学派，观点就必然会受到其偏见和先入为主的观点影响。\n无意识\n理性不过是人类最近才具有的属性，尚未完美到能够揭示无意识的规律。无意识对我们的行为有着十分重要的影响，就像一种不为人知的力量在起作用。\n历史告诉我们，当文明赖以生存的道德因素失去威力时，它也就被无意识的野蛮群体解散了。创造和领导着文明的，从来都是少数的高级知识分子而不是群体。群体只有强大的破坏力，他们的规则永远是渴望回到野蛮阶段。\n组成种族的个体在无意识因素方面是十分相似的，差异主要来自性格中有意识的一面：比如受教育的结果。在人们的情感领域，如宗教政治道德和爱恨，最卓越的人才也不见得比平民百姓高明多少。在集体的气氛下，个人的智能差异被削弱了，他们的个性也被削弱了。形成群体后，个体的才智就变得平庸了，这就是为什么群体完成不了高智商的工作。处于群体中时，约束个人的责任感便荡然无存，就可以为所欲为了。\n群体性\n群体常常夸大自己的情感，所以要想打动他们，只能用最极端的感情才可以。\n专横和偏狭是一切类型群体的共性。但在不同群体中强度却不一样。有些民族只关心自己所属的宗派是否还具有独立性，甚至发展到必须通过暴力手段让与他们意见相左的人改变信念，才算独立，这种单一而顽固的对只有的理解，与英美人具有的强烈的个人独立精神是不一样的。\n高深的观念必须通过改造才能被群众接受，民众的想象力是政治家的权利基础。无论给群众提供的是哪种观念，只有当它们具有绝对的，毫不妥协的和简单明了的形式时，才能产生绝佳的影响力。它们都会披上形象化的外衣，也只有以这种形式出现，才能被群体接受。该如何影响群体的想象力，绝对不可以采用论证的方式。因为影响民众想象力的并不是事实本身，而是它扩散和传播的方式。\n民族性\n群体信念和观点的基础，受蓄积因素影响最大。这些因素包括种族，传统， 时间，制度和教育。各民族无法选择自己认为最好的制度，相同的制度名下掩盖着极不相同的东西，就是这些蓄积性因素。\n种族\n种族的重要性远远超过其他因素，种族所有的文明要素都仅仅是其禀赋的外在表现而已。\n\n传统代表着过去的观念，需要和感情，是种族综合作用的产物。\n民族是在历史中形成的有机体，只能通过缓慢的世代累积的过程发生变化。\n\n种族精神代表着文明状态，群体精神代表着野蛮状态。种族的差别，造成了有多少个国家就有多少种不同形式的社会主义和民主的局面。遗传的心理结构在人们感觉和思维方式上造成巨大的差别，在大型集会中把不同国家的工人代表聚集在一起，往往弄得意见纷纷，不欢而散。有些为了实现自己的利益，会寻求国家干预，有些更多求助于个人的主动性，就像喜欢集权和不把国家当回事的民族差别一样。\n各种制度和政府对一个民族的生活只能产生很小的影响，民族主要受其种族禀赋支配，也就是说，受着某些品质的遗传残留的支配，而所谓禀赋，这是这些品质的总和。种族和日常生活中我们必须遵循的条条框框，是决定我们命运的神秘原因。\n传统\n没有传统，文明是不可能的；没有对这些传统的破坏，进步也是不可能的。理想的方式是保留过去的制度，只用不易觉察的方式一点一滴的加以改革，这种理想很难实现。在一个民族被传统习俗捆绑过死而失去变革的能力，在这种情况下，暴力革命也是徒劳，因为革命的结果要么像打碎的锁链被重新拼接在一起，过去的统治原封不动重现，要么对被打碎的事物撒手不管，衰败后很快出现无政府状态。\n时间\n漫长的时间造就了自己的作品，一致的环境，不间断的种族通婚以及共同生活等因素共同施加了它们的影响。小群体逐渐融合成一个大整体，形成了一个种族，即一个有着共同特征和情感的群体，因为遗传的作用它们越来越稳固，这群人变成了一个民族。获得某种理想之后，才能形成一个理想的民族。这个理想具有什么样的性质并不十分重要。不管是罗马式的崇拜，雅典式的强盛还是真主安拉式的胜利，都足以让种族中的每个人在情感和思想上达到完全的统一。\n时间做完创建性的工作后，便开始搞破坏，文明一旦止步不前，注定会走向衰落，标志就是种族理想的衰弱。理想衰弱过程中，个人的个性和智力增长，但人群最终会变成一群缺乏团结一致的个体，回到自己的原始状态——一群乌合之众。\n制度\n政治制度形成需要上百年的时间，改变它也同样如此。在某一个时刻对一个民族有益的制度，对另一个民族也许是有害的。决定各民族命运的是它们的性格，而不是它们的政府。\n社会组织和所有生命有机体一样复杂，大自然从不以我们普遍流行的方式进行变革，而是采取一些激烈的手段，因而变革对于一个民族而言是有致命危险的，无论此变革在理论上是多么出色。\n对英美宪政滴灌式变化的吹捧\n需求和时间承担着完善宪政的责任，最明智的做法就是像英美人一样，让这两个因素发挥作用。与欧洲大陆民族一拥而上发疯般制定出来的宪法文本与英国的宪法进行了比较并指出，英国的宪法总是一点一滴慢慢地发生变化，收到直接需求的影响，而不是受思辨性的推理的影响。\n教育\n教育是我们在一定程度上影响国民心智的唯一手段。生活中取得成功的条件是判断力，经验，开拓精神和个性，这些素质都不是书本能够带来的。\n\n附上作者的观点：废除可恶的教科书和可悲的考试，代之以实质性的教育对多数人来说，可能更为有利于适用（从工厂，矿山，法庭，书房，建筑工地和医院获得大量的感观印象，和看到各种工具，材料和操作），对各种细节的累积和消化，默默的推敲，或迟或早会促使他们产生新的组合，简化，创意，改进或发明。\n\n体验能让人们对人对事有一个敏锐而准确的概念，并掌握处理它们的各种方法。在最能出成果的年级，被剥夺了所有这些宝贵的亲身接触而一直被关在学校里，是可悲的。过多的，过于沉重的知识在考试后将不断流失，被培养好时，已经快到了精力衰退的年纪，结婚生子落入生活的俗套，这就是平庸的生活。比起个人前程完全取决于他在十几二十岁的一次几小时考试的做法，注重实践能力和实物教学发展的英美教育体制，更民主对社会更有利。\n\n有关教育：国家用教科书制造出这么多有文凭的人，却只能利用其中的一小部分，从而使另一些人无事可做。培养出心怀不满和不适应自己生活状况的人。\n\n英美有用的人才，还具备自主创业的能力，如果条件允许，可能在25岁之前就能发生。相反中国成了反面典型，作者批评法国越来越像中国看齐，造成了巨额的人才浪费。缺少丰富的常识和意志力，结果是进入世界后，会接二连三的遇到痛苦的挫折。\n营造真理\n群体从来不渴望真理，面对那些不合口味的证据，他们会不加理睬，谁为他们制造幻想，他们就把谁当做主人。曾经社会主义的强大也在于它是有活力的最后幻想，鼓吹者是无视现实，敢于向人类承诺幸福的人。\n群体，不善推理，却急于行动。\n要让真理在群体心中牢固扎根，摧毁幻觉，必须依靠大范围频繁重复验证的经验，可一代人的经验对下一代人往往没多大用处，这就是被引经据典的历史事实达不到目的的原因。很可悲，经验这几乎是唯一的手段，并不能总发力生效。\n一切集体，不管其成员组成如何，全都存在智力低下的问题。政治经济学家，都受过高等教育。但他们的学问不过是我们普遍无知的一种衰减形式而已，在社会问题上，因为未知的因素众多，所有人都是同样无知的。支配投票结果的仍主要是个人的情感和党派的精神。\n领袖的行为方式\n领袖的行为方式：断言，重复，传染。群众总是愿意听从那些意志坚强的人。一个断言越是简单明了，不理睬任何推理和证据，就越有威力。就如所有时代的宗教典籍和各种法典，都是简单的断言。\n不断重复的观点会进入自我的无意识区域，我们的多数行为动机就是在这个区域中形成的。这就是为什么广告能够有吃惊威力的原因。\n同质性群体\n包括派别，身份团体和阶级。\n\n\n派别包括在教育，职业和社会阶层等方面可能十分不同的个体，由于共同的信仰联系在一起，如宗教信仰，政治信仰。\n\n\n身份团体是由相同职业的个体组成，因此有相似的教育程度和差不多的社会地位，如军人和教士。\n\n\n阶级有不同来源的个体组成，是由于某种相同的利益，某些像是的生活习惯以及几乎相同的教育背景联系起来。例如中产阶级和农民阶级。\n\n\n选民群体，工人农民很少会选出自己的同行来代表自己，原因在于这种人在他们中间没有威望。能取代声望的只有财富，才能天赋都不是成功的主要因素。当前的财富崇拜也是一种声望崇拜，社会引导经济（财富）决定论，财富者声望最高。实质上声望背后绑定的是成功，成功的支撑是多维度的，一旦失去成功这一基础，声望便会在很短的时间内消失。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"九型人格","url":"/%E4%B9%9D%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC.html","content":"\n没有人为的持续努力，所有的心灵奇迹都不会发生。认识自己本就是一件需要勇气和毅力的工作。\n不仅要承担面对自己性格黑暗面时的难堪，同时还要想办法放下既有的性格惯性，发展出新的态度与行为模式。通过学习，你可以更清楚自己的内在运作和外显特质。\n\n焦虑型人格想掌控，内耗型人格想成功，强迫型人格想完美，社恐型人格想认同，付出型人格怕指责，虽然这些款式跟九型不完全对应，但动机挖掘有异曲同工之处。\n九型介绍\n1. 理想崇高者（完美型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能犯错。\n\n行为：一切遵规守矩，认真负责，习惯关注在不完美的地方，很难包容自己或别人的缺点，喜批评指责。\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持去改正他认定的错误（爱批评）\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为经常犯错的无知孩子。担心自己不够完美，没人爱。沟通的重点是如何完美无缺。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力管好自己，就不会有人批评我\n\n\n原罪 ：\n\n愤怒: 第一型格的人习惯压抑愤怒，导致自我挫折与对他人潜藏愤恨不平的情绪\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n眼神：像鹰一样锐利，坚定;\n肢体：站坐行都保持规范不随意;\n表情：常不满\n\n\n\n2. 古道热肠者（助人型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能自私。\n\n行为：处处表现对别人的关心，特别是对弱者的同情关心，爱心\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持先去帮助他认为需要帮助的人（有目的取悦别人却易忽略自己）；担心因为没关心别人，所以别人也不爱自己。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为自私的坏孩子。沟通重点是爱心，感恩，向其求助，示弱就容易得到他的支持。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力照顾别人，大家就会喜欢我，\n\n\n原罪：\n\n骄傲：看不见自身的问题，认为别人才是需要帮助的弱者。其实是内心的骄傲感在作祟。长期忽视自己的需要，将导致自我欺骗与因得不到想要的回报而心生怨气\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n眼神：亲和的；\n肢体表情：柔、顺、亲\n\n\n\n3. 成功追求者（事业型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能丢脸。\n\n行为：以目标为导向，重视自我形象，喜欢自我表现\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持赢得大家的肯定。最担心自己不成功所以没人爱\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为让父母丢脸的没用孩子。沟通的重点是目标和蓝图，喜欢自我表现，并要多注意对其称赞。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力表现，就可以证明自己的价值\n\n\n原罪：\n\n欺骗：将自我意识认定是真我，并想尽办法满足自我意识的需要。长期关闭对真我的感受，将导致自我麻木与否定更深入的感情联结。\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n语言：快人快语，直接；\n身体语言：大多热情夸张，随环境需要变；\n眼神：明亮，活跃，灵动\n\n\n\n4. 个人风格者（自我型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能一样。\n\n行为：我行我素，审美特别有天赋\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持要有自己的风格。最担心心灵空虚，自爱就是最爱。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕害怕成为没有人注意到的寂寞孩子\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力表达自己，大家就会知道我是谁。沟通的重点是和谐与美丽的事物，夸赞她的独特之处。\n\n\n原罪：\n\n嫉妒：注意力集中在自己与他人的差异上，产生自卑又自傲的复杂情结。长期渴望他人所有，将导致自我怜悯与错过值得珍惜的事物\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n语言：一切无所谓之态，怀旧与感叹；\n肢体眼神：一举一动处处刻意表现出高贵气质，眼神随时寻找美丽特别的事物\n\n\n\n5. 博学多闻者（理智型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能没用。\n\n行为：行为理性，不带感情\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持要比别人懂得更多\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为什么都不懂的笨孩子。沟通的重点是你要显得知识渊博或指出哪些对他提高有所帮助就能得到他的支持\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力充实自己，就不怕需要依靠别人\n\n\n原罪：\n\n贪心：一方面自觉缺乏，一方面又担心他人占用自己的资源，第五型人学会不依靠别人，也不想被他人依靠。长期专注在个人世界，将导致自我封闭与外在环境格格不入\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n表情木讷，冷静，眼神深邃无光彩；\n语言：简洁，无肢体动作，无表情\n\n\n\n6. 谨慎忠诚者（疑惑型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能无备。\n\n行为：处处表现谨慎，严密\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持要确定一切安全无虞。担心做错事情，所以很谨慎，思维很细密\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为没有人可依靠的孤单孩子。沟通一定要谨慎再谨慎，显得自己很细心很认真就能得到他们的认同\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力寻找支援，就不怕遇到困难\n\n\n原罪：恐惧：担心不可知的未来，让第六型人永远活在焦虑当中。长期忽视自己的力量，将导致自我怀疑与对他人产生负面的投射（例如自己内心感到不安，便先认定他人内心正在不安）\n\n\n肢体眼神：\n\n语言：声音小时略带颤抖，或刻意大声掩饰；\n眼神：拘束，恍惚，或刻意表现强硬姿势，眼神逃避或可以直视（6号有恐惧型和反恐型两种）\n\n\n\n7. 勇于创新者（活跃型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能受限。\n\n行为：喜欢有趣，讨厌无趣，自娱自乐\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持先去做自己有兴趣的事情。担心没快乐没趣味，所以要及时行乐。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为一无所有的穷孩子\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力满足自己，就可以过着快乐的生活。沟通的重点就是你要告诉他真的很好玩他就会支持\n\n\n原罪：\n\n贪吃：不愿面对痛苦，第七型不得不用有趣的活动与事物来填补内心情感的空洞。长期以追逐快乐与刺激逃避问题，将导致自我沉沦与永远得不到满足的困境\n\n\n\n肢体眼神\n\n语言：活跃，跳跃（注意3号也活泼，但7号和3号最大的不同是3号做什么事都有明确目的，而7号做什么都喜欢追求好玩）；\n肢体眼神：好动，不稳重，眼神关注好玩儿的事物。\n\n\n\n8. 天生领导者（领袖型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能被欺。\n\n行为：表达权威，坚定有力，赶紧利落，易怒\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持一切要在他的掌控之中。最担心不掌握全局就得不到爱，所以强势控制。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为爱哭的软弱孩子。\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力武装自己，别人就不敢欺负我。能为8号出谋划策，或为其所用是8号沟通的重点。\n\n\n原罪：\n\n贪欲：要求强度，控制力，不断自我扩张，是第八型人受欲望驱动的结果。（长期放任欲念，将导致自我膨胀与过度损耗所有资源）\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：肢体动作大，喜欢指点，表情不怒自威，眼神威严\n\n\n9. 向往和平者（和平型）\n\n\n行为动机：不能孤立。\n\n行为：随意，缓和，不出众，不能拒绝别人\n\n\n\n性格盲点：坚持不要有冲突。最担心不和谐，破坏自然或气氛，不自在也没人爱，所以喜欢和平。\n\n\n核心恐惧：怕成为讨人厌的孤独孩子\n\n\n核心欲望：只要我努力配合别人，就可以和大家相处愉快。似乎是最没主见的人，很容易被影响，但喜欢和谐的沟通说服方式。\n\n\n原罪：\n\n怠惰：对生命报持旁观的态度，让第九型人只想活在自己的安乐窝中。长期抗拒外在的影响，将导致自我退缩与对所有事物失去感觉\n\n\n\n肢体眼神：肢体随意不讲究，迟缓，眼神平和\n\n\n个别易混淆的差别说明\n2型助人vs 9型和平\n2号和9号容易混淆，2号的动机是爱他人，所以眼神充满感情的亲和力，9号的动机是爱自然和谐，眼神若有若无的，常融入自然环境中好像随时在发呆。\n2和9的人缘都很好，没攻击性，比较讨人喜欢。但两者的区别在于：\n\n2号更关注个体，会挑选帮助他所喜欢的，或者有权力的，或者和他相似的人。\n9号更关注整个群体，9号更愿意帮助群体的每一个人。\n\n比如在一个一大群人的聚会中：\n\n2号锁定自己目标后，会迅速行动，上前打招呼，不会浪费时间在自己不关注的人物上。\n9号的行动力就会显得慢很多，也随和很多，往往显得漫无目标，碰到谁都可以聊上一会。\n\n5型理智vs 6型疑惑\n5，6号做事都喜欢思考，所以很容易混淆。\n\n\n5号思考是完全理性的，独立的。所以5号在团队中思考了也很少讲出来。\n\n\n6号思考绝大多数是为了得到团队或他人认可，经过严密思考后会发表个人看法。\n\n\n三大性格类组\n在九型人格中，可以三三分组，维度也可以切成三份\n\n三大基本性格类组\n三大情绪管理\n三大欲望满足机制\n\n九种性格类型在性格分类上虽然各自独立，但在心里结构上确实各有相连关系，同一组性格类型者遭遇共同的心理困恼，但因为性格类型不同而产生不一样的外显行为。\n三种维度分组，可以指出每种性格类型的失衡点，同时还揭露每种性格类型的运作机制。\n心理三大结构\n三大基本性格类组是根据人类的心理三大结构做分类的：本能，情感与思考。分别对应体内三大能量中心。丹田，胸腔和头部，九大原罪正好与此三大能量中心有关。\n本能组【8.9.1】\n\n经常体验愤怒\n\n\n8 不计后果的外化表达\n9 则愤怒麻醉，否认消极应对\n1 则愤怒内化，怒而不宣，经常批评别人\n\n\n性格影响-反抗现在\n\n自我防御与高度戒备，麻木与消极抵制，划清界限与恼怒\n\n真我特质-促成活在当下\n\n放松与发挥内在力量，去感受与参与，接受现状与宽容\n情感组【2.3.4】\n\n经常体验到的情绪是悲伤，都希望获得别人的认同。\n\n\n2 通过帮助别人，通过别人的感受找到自己存在的价值\n3 通过获得成就地位获得他人尊重\n4 通过自己的独特性\n\n\n性格影响-放不下过去\n\n情绪化与想要改变别人，不去感受与否认，戏剧化与自我形象\n\n真我特质-促成活在当下\n\n悲悯与放下，同理心与自我肯定，平静与真相\n思考组【5.6.7】\n\n\n经常体验到焦虑/恐惧\n潜藏的情绪是对未来的恐惧。幼儿在建立自我意识过程中会经历所谓的“分离阶段”，也就是学习如何走出母亲的照顾，开始独立。理想的成长经验中，父亲是帮助幼儿学习分辨外界危险的最佳人选，而思考组的三种人就是在这个阶段出现困恼，他们找不到父亲角色所给予的安全感，因此，他们意识到，必须完全靠自己，焦虑于是产生。在强烈的恐惧中，第5型人退回内心躲藏起来，6号有时屈服有时反抗，7型会假装没事。\n书上解释第5型的父母或一方过度强势，导致自己深怕被父母掌控。第6型曾被非常信任的人欺骗或捉弄，像其他两组的主性格（3.6.9）一样，都是既内向又外向的，所以他奋起反抗又怕受责罚，造成矛盾感很强第7型自认太早失去母亲的关爱，决定自己当母亲，好好为自己争取应得的一切，向外追逐，把一切可能都纳入自己的选择当中，不想错过任何机会，才能感到安全，需要越来越多的“玩具”带来安慰\n\n\n\n5通过获得更多知识信息获得安全感\n6通过把安全焦虑投射到环境中，希望与同道中人结盟获得安全感\n7通过不断从外界获得能量驱逐内心的焦虑不安全感\n\n\n性格影响-为未来烦恼\n\n想得透彻与焦虑，不确定与怀疑，逃避与过度参与\n\n真我特质-促成活在当下\n\n内在的大智慧与相互支持，相信自己和清明的心思，承受与节制\n情绪管理机制\n理性主义【1.3.5】\n碰到问题，第一反应是克制内心情绪，要求自己保持冷静与理性态度解决问题。也希望对方理性讨论与协调\n乐观派【2.7.9】\n第一反应是要求自己往好的方面想，不愿承认自己的问题。\n情绪分子【4.6.8】\n发泄是他们的第一反应。这组人在信任别人这事儿上出现了问题\n欲望满足机制\n欲望满足机制，揭示潜意识里想以何种方式去追求想要的东西，同时也揭露我们的社交风格，看每种人如何达到想要的目的，及在团队中如何自处定位自己。\n强制组【3.7.8】\n属于强势组，以自我为中心，侵略性较强，不能被满足时，不会退缩放弃，而是更积极争取\n责任组【1.2.6】\n受传统约束，强调义务责任。不被满足时，会要求自己以合乎法理的方式取得想要的，普通看不清自我的价值，不是否认就是要依靠别人的肯定。\n离群组【4.5.9】\n比较容易逃离现实，倾向以想象来取代行动的人。不能被满足时，会先躲回内心世界，借由想象力安抚内心失落感\n九型变数\n九型有左右翼与三变数，还有放松或压力时的成长走向与凋零走向。\n三变数是身体舒适度、社会关系网、人际亲密感，也就是你日常更关心的维度（影响价值观，因为它们是人类的三大基本需求），找出影响你最深的变数，了解你成长过程中被过度开发或发展不足的需求。\n找出你的主变数，Easy。走进公司晚宴，你最关心的是下面的哪个问题你就明了了。\n\n\n场地布置如何，有什么菜品，哪个位置坐起来更舒适方便？\n\n\n有哪些长官来现场？谁才是有实权的人？谁跟他们说话，谁对自己升迁最有利？\n\n\n那一桌气氛最热闹？谁最受大家欢迎？想去和有吸引力的人坐一桌\n\n\n在九型人格理论中，宣称每个人都只属于一种人格，这或许有他的道理。认定你的主人格后，从其它相似的人格中了解修正建议，也有利于改善自己的其它毛病（每个人都或多或少拥有1-9之间的特质，但肯定有一个主的）。\n个人分析\n纵观整本书后，看出自己是属于第五型人，但有很强的第六型的问题。别以为自己像第九型人，这是因为在独生的环境中害怕孤独，害怕没有人跟自己玩，加之父母相对平和所生出来特性，并不是主体特性，我并不怕冲突，甚至在倔强的时候，是完全无视冲突的，这并不是我最担忧的方面。另外有时的完美主义，并不是时时刻刻发生的，且很小很小的时候明显，过了小学4年级好像就没了，所以就更不是了，虽然我也喜欢批评别人。\n第五型人\n作为一个第5型人【思考组】，而且我还是一个性格健康度普通的第5型。健康的第5型认为自己是一个聪明且洞悉力强的人，当开始不断追求新知，深怕自己表现不如他人时，健康度已经下滑至普通。当我如果害怕没有足够资源，沉溺在自我想象世界，为维护自己的思想而无理攻击他人时，就是一个重度问题患者了。\n\n\n世界观：这世界充满侵略性的事物，我要躲起来好好思考并做足准备\n\n\n自我概念：我是一个聪明，知觉敏锐的人\n\n\n核心恐惧：我不想被别人威胁或控制\n\n\n核心欲望：我一定要了解周围的一切\n\n\n性格形成点：越来越坚持知识就是力量\n\n\n性格扭曲点：当开始不断追求新知，深怕自己表现不如他人\n\n\n性格自救点：保持清明的思考健康的洞察力，以免掉入脱离现实或扭曲解释的性格困境\n\n\n性格成长点：转向健康的第八型，开始相信自己所知的已经比别人多，并且能自信地领导别人\n\n\n性格凋零点：转向不健康的第七型，开始不再思考地冲动行事，甚至性情变得极度不稳定\n\n\n第5型人可以忍受长时间的独处，太强调思考的重要性，倾向以思考取代行动，经常是跳跃式的思考模式，一点引发另一点，花很多时间却不容易有结论。5w6（具有第六翼型的第五型人）是解决问题的高手，健康时，擅长从不想干事物中找到共同性，并加以延伸使用，但又依附权威。关注身体舒适度的家伙，比另外两种更注重个人隐私，更离群索居，不容易表达内心真正的情感，潜意识里是拒绝与别人心灵相通的。\n健康转换\n当第5型人长期处于放松状态，不再坚持自己的理论，而是向现实大环境认同，他将呈现出健康的第8型人的特质：坚定，自信，实际动手做。脚踏实地而不是空谈理论，用心去感受而不是切断自己的情感。\n多了第8型的自信，第5型开始收割长期的自我耕耘，相信自己有足够的能力去赢得胜利。只是，把意识从心智调整到身体与感受面，并且解放长久被压抑的情感，这是第5型人一直以来最抗拒的状况。好在第5型人性格健康时，他会勇于承担，以专业素养和敏锐洞察力带领团队寻找新方案，会是精力充沛又思虑缜密的智慧型领导人物，不再是虚无缥缈的理论家，也不再是与世隔绝的怪人，而是完美理论的实践者。\n不止用脑，更要用心，是第5型人重获新生的关键。\n第六型人\n其实自己还有比较严重的第6型人的问题。\n因为担心被抛弃和鼓励，在人际关系中，潜意识里常寻找可以依赖的情感来源为目标，会显得特别友善与愿意支持别人。性格中的自我怀疑，常忽略自己的优点和能力。常依据别人的反应来决定自己的回应方式。不友善激起防御心，微笑足以把你当做自己人。\n容易受别人影响，情绪随着摆荡。性格不太自信而害怕做出改变。想要摆脱母亲却得不到父亲的指引与保护，慌乱与焦虑特质因此而生。\n对于相同问题反复思量的第六型人， 往往做好决策后，又开始挑剔这个决策的毛病。当时间一分一秒逼近，着急的他为了要摆脱不知该如何是好的焦虑感。常常会冲动做出完全相反的决定。\n控制住你容易往坏处想的毛病，你比别人更容易伤害你自己\n降低防御心，要有勇气表达自己，但是，不需要与人对立。\n健康转换\n第6型可成长为性格健康的第九型，稳定宽容，笑看缘起缘灭。\n第九型人\n第九型人的性格扭曲点：为了不起冲突或减少麻烦而顺应别人的要求\n\n\n【性格成长点】：转向健康的第三型，开始想要发挥自己的潜力，变得比较有自信，而且不再需要依赖别人来规划生活\n\n\n【性格凋零点】：转向不健康的第6型，开始变得多疑而且焦虑，表面上看起来冷淡而且不在乎的他，其实像一颗不定时炸弹般充满危险性。\n\n\n像第4型人总是以浪漫伤感看世界，第9型总是以阳光角度去诠释他的生活。第9型人希望自己与外在世界合为一体，倾向放下自己去适应周围环境。当环境不如意时，不做行为反抗，却在内心里为自己的平静筑起一道保护墙，影响平静的东西都被阻挡。只选择自己想看到的事情，没有选择时，倾向美化不好的经验。遇到困难时，第九型人反应是退缩而不是面对。\n\n许多第九型人自认拥有不错的童年生活，他们对父母有肯定的认同。以和为贵，适合在组织规章明确，挑战性不高的环境工作，最大优点是沉着，乐当无名小卒，不表达自我，当绿叶衬红花。\n\n第九型人总是抹灭自我，尤其抗拒任何会让他感到内在的愤怒和不安等情绪事情。看起来很忙，但在逃避等着被解决的问题，干的都是琐事，通常不愿花心思在任何可以让目前情况变得更好的事物上。\n真实表达你自己并不会损害你的人际关系，如果对方介意，那也许他与你并不相合\n当有负面情绪出现时，学习在公开场合说出你的心里话，或者至少承认你的感受\n转换\n\n9 --&gt; 3（健康）\n\n性格健康成长时，第9型人会到健康的第三型，对如何发挥自我潜能与积极提升自我成长相当感兴趣，收敛漫无目标与过度乐观的空想，有效率地掌握自己的生活。不再自我否定，也不会习惯性遇到困难就感到压力过大而提早放弃。懂得看重自己，勇于在自己的人生舞台上当主角。\n\n9 --&gt; 6（凋零）\n\n第九型当处在受压状态，担心无法顺利融入周围环境而与别人产生隔阂时，焦虑会浮上台面，呈现性格不健康的第6型的人特质，开始忙碌于工作，高压力逼迫自己，且开始抱怨。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"书同文字体理解","url":"/%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3.html","content":"\n刀与笔\n所有古代简牍上的文字，都是用毛笔书写，而不是刀刻的。百年来出土的战国秦汉乃至三国两晋的简牍多到难以计数，只要随便翻看其中任一种的图版，就可以知道“刀笔吏”的刀只是用来刮去错字，“笔”才用来是写字的。秦始皇厌恶竹简上“密密麻麻的刻痕”、“写下‘知道了’三个字，都要埋头刻上好久”，都是不可能发生的。\n秦国文字的复古\n相对东方六国文字而言，秦文字并不是“简化字”，而是最保守、最接近西周春秋文字的一种，在一定程度上，秦统一文字甚至起到了文字“复古”的作用。\n\n东周时期，秦一直是文化相对落后的国家，其疆域又处在西周故地（也是西北边陲），因而秦文字没能跟上东方六国文字剧烈变化的步伐，而是恪守陈规，很大程度上继承了西周春秋文字的字形及用字习惯。比如“马” ，秦文字与西周晚期至春秋的字形几乎全同，而东方六国的“马”字，有些已简化到只剩一个框加几横的地步了。\n\n「馬」在战国时期的简体写法普遍只保留马头（带鬃毛），马身被省略为几个横笔。而晋系(韩赵魏)的第三个「馬」字连横笔也省掉了，只剩下一个马头，与「目」形十分接近。\n\n\n正是由于秦统一后给汉字来了个“复古运动”，才使得后世继承秦文字而来的隶楷文字，有相当一部分能跟商或西周的古文字串连起来，也使得今天的古文字研究者，能够相对容易地读懂商周出土文献，或循着秦篆的形体，直接认读上古三代的甲骨、金文。若是其他国家（比如楚）统一了中国，那真是不堪设想……\n\n书同文\n秦始皇统一文字的主要内容，是规范字形与用字习惯，而不是简化。“字形”大家都理解，所谓“用字习惯”，是指用哪个“字”记录哪个“词”，如秦文字用“爵”记录爵位的“爵”，楚文字则用“雀”，后统一作“爵”；秦文字用“謗”记录诽谤的“谤”，楚文字则用“方”，后统一作“謗”；秦文字用“重”记录重量的“重”，三晋文字等则用“冢”，后统一作“重”等等。\n从这几个例子也可以看出，“书同文”重点在“同”，而非“简”。\n秦简日常体\n秦人书写在简牍上的文字，不是“小篆”，而是秦隶。\n“篆”是铭刻的意思，哪怕在秦代，篆书也只是用于金石铭刻的“标准体”，而不是日常使用的“手写体”。在所有出土的战国秦至秦代的简牍上，所能见到的都是笔画较为平直、易于书写的手写体（可以称为“秦隶书”），而绝不是盘曲婉转的“篆书”。\n从出土实物看，文字的“标准体”与“手写体”，或者说**“正体”与“俗体”是长期并存的**。“篆书”只见于秦刻石及铜器铭文，是“标准体”。而“秦隶书”本就是通形于战国秦地的手写体，不是秦统一文字之后，“下级书吏嫌小篆写起来还是麻烦，偷偷作了进一步简化”而成的。两套系统从不混用，也就不会有将竹简上的六国文字“翻译成秦篆”、“无论是从什么地方送来的竹简，上面都清晰工整地写着小篆”这样的事情了。\n字库演变而非闭门造车\n“小篆”是春秋战国时代的秦文字逐渐衍变而来的的，秦统一前后的文字，并没有明显的区别（所谓“大篆”、“小篆”的名称也是汉代才开始使用的）。“规范字库”不可能是一夜之间，由少数人“创造”出来的。 这就像我们今天所使用的“规范汉字”，也不是文字改革前夕由一小撮人闭门造车弄出来的，而基本是“述而不作”，是对于古已有之的简化字形的整理与认定（当然也有部分推衍），也是对民国时代兴起的汉字简化运动的继承与发展\n引用\n\n强烈推荐看原作的内容，2w 多字，详实多了\n\n1.知乎 关于秦始皇帝「书同文字」的新知，兼谈《小篆战争》 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["文字"]},{"title":"云原生基座下的大数据","url":"/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html","content":"\n存算耦合架构回顾\n最早的 Shared-Disk 架构主要是通过独立定制网络 NAS 于存储架构来实现第一代的存算分离架构，性能好但成本较高（采用网状通道技术交换机连接存储阵列和服务器主机，建立专用于数据存储的区域网络）, 可扩展性较差(ScaleUp)\n过去十几年 Shared-Nothing 架构，可以通过普通硬件实现类似高成本数据存储阵列所实现的效果，性能好且性价比高，有一定的可扩展性(ScaleOut)。可通过普通硬件实现类似高成本数据存储阵列所实现的效果。过去由于网络带宽的限制，我们习惯性的把计算和存储偶合在一起，以减少网络传输的压力.\nHadoop的三元老\n\nMapReduce负责计算\nYARN负责资源调度\nHDFS负责存数据\n\n发展最迅速的事计算组件这一层，业界在计算上面各显神通，造出了一大堆轮子，有MapReduce，Tez，Spark这样的计算框架，Hive这样的数据仓库，还有Presto，Impala查询引擎，各种各样的组件。配合这些组件的还有像sqoop这样的数据流转采集组件也很丰富。\n\n然而存储在问世十年后，还是HDFS一枝独秀，组件都是面向HDFS去设计的。\n\n如Hbase，在写 WAL log 的时候就深入利用了HDFS 的一些很内核的能力，以达到一个低时延的写入\nSpark 也提供了数据亲和性（Data Locality）的能力，这些都是HDFS 提供的一些特殊的 API\n\nHDFS自身架构的约束\nHDFS本身也有局限，NameNode不能分布式扩展，限制了单机群管理文件的数量。当NameNode的资源占用较多，负载高的时候可能会触发FullGC，影响整个集群的可用性。这也是HDFS高负载集群一直以来的痛点。\n\n根据运维经验，在3亿文件以内，运维HDFS还是比较轻松的，3亿后复杂度就会明显提升，峰值在5亿左右，就达到单集群天花板了。\n文件量更多，需要引入HDFS的Federaton联邦机制，增加了很多运维和管理的成本。\n\nHadoop组件生态碎片化\n另外Hadoop生态私有化部署，集成新的计算和存储技术，也有不小的碎片化难度。Hadoop的组件经常和HDFS和YARN的版本有严格适配要求，很多新的大数据组件不适配老的Hadoop，而升级Hadoop又会造成其它组件的生效。\n云厂商为了与现有Hadoop组件适配，一方面要去改造组件和对象存储之间的connector，一方面给上层组件去打patch，验证兼容性，是不小的工作量。所以公有云提供的大数据组件包含的计算组件也是有限的，一般只含Spark，Hive，Presto三个常用的，且还只包含少数几个版本。\n硬件的局限\nHadoop设计之初是一个存算耦合的架构，一个不可忽视的原因是网络通信和硬件的局限\n2006年Amazon才发布第一个云服务，机房里当时最大的问题是网卡，06年刚开始千兆，百兆还是主流。此时大数据搭配的磁盘，吞吐大概50MB/s，换算成网络贷款就是400Mbps，一个节点8块盘，吞吐都跑起来就需要几千Mbit传输了，可网卡最早也就1Gb，每一个网络节点带宽根本不够，故要让计算靠近存储\n数据处理任务从远程物理机读取数据开销大，故以数据为中心，将数据处理任务迁移到数据所在的物理机上，能有效降低网络贷款，保证整体性能，此即为存算一体的大数据技术架构。\n存算分离悄悄起了变化\n企业数据增长很快，但算力需求增长没那么快\n\n数据生产出来，不知道怎么用。但考虑到未来会用，企业都先把数据尽可能存起来，再去挖掘价值\n存算耦合的硬件拓扑结构给扩容带来一个影响。数据节点还负责计算，故CPU和内存配置也不能太差。机器都是计算和存储配置平衡的机器：足够的存储容量+等量算力\n\n这样扩出来的算力，对企业来说造成了很大的浪费，资源利用率不平衡\n\n\n万兆网卡普及了，有些AI场景有100Gb网卡（10w兆），带宽提升明显，磁盘吞吐提升到了100MB/s，一个万兆网卡的实例，可差不多支持12块盘峰值吞吐，对大部分企业来说已够用，网络传输瓶颈基本不存在了。\n软件也在变化，算法和存储格式减少了要传输的数据量（压缩算法+列存储格式），IO瓶颈在合力作用下在弱化，存算分离可行性在得到保证\n\n最初的尝试\n\nYARN 会在节点上布一个 Node Manager的进程。有了 Node Manager 之后，YARN 就会认为 HDFS DataNode 的节点，在其管理范围之内，当需要计算任务可以分发到这个节点上来完成\n\n最初的尝试（2013 年在 Facebook ）来自于将HDFS与负责计算的worker分开部署（这样没引入新的组件），DataNode节点不再部署NodeManager，这样不再把计算任务发送到DataNode节点上，计算要用到的大数据都通过网络来传输，用万兆网卡去支持。\n尽管HDFS最巧妙的数据本地性设计被舍弃了，但给集群配置带来极大便利\n通过实验此改造，对整个平台性能的影响仅是几个百分点[3]，2%\n\n云厂商助力\n云计算厂商所提供的基础平台能力基本上解决了运维稳定性风险，改造周期长，资源使用成本的问题。将整体存算分离改造的复杂度明显降低，可行性提升。\n\n多租户资源共用机制（网络/存储作为基础设施共用）, 以降低支撑单用户的成本，有边际成本下降效应\n托管了运维复杂性问题：屏蔽网络，安全，稳定性风险，搭建周期长等难题\n\n从技术到成本的解决，让工程师更多尝试在公有云标准 IaaS 环境下不断改进大数据存算分离的技术方案，无论是数据湖存储加速还是缓存加速等等\n\n云原生时代\n以容器化和K8S为代表的云原生时代技术，已经引领一整套新的生态全景，涵盖10多个技术领域，如消息流处理，调度和任务编排，数据库等。在新技术和云平台的加持下，大家简便的享用着[分布式，弹性，存算分离（多副本容灾），资源隔离]等诸多技术福利，简直不要太幸福，另一方面，新的趋势也在催生一些旧的流行中间件，出现新竞品，如Pulsar之于Kafka。\n2021年，Spark 3.1正式支持了K8S，Kafka也发布了能运行在K8S上面的版本，这两个事件也表明大数据平台的云原生化已是大势所趋。按这个趋势，Hadoop也会迁移到K8S上，MapReduce被Spark替代，Yarn也被K8S替换，最坚挺的HDFS也在出现对标替代方案。\n资源调度的统一\n\nYARN Resource Manager负责集群中所有资源统一管理和分配，它接收来自各节点（Node Manager)的资源汇报信息，将资源按一定策略分配给各个应用程序，功能起始和K8S Scheduler功能非常类似\n不同场景需要的存储空间和算力配比不一样，造成集群资源浪费。算力需求也存在波峰波谷，不同业务对运行环境要求不同。Spark应用序绑定spark集群运行，web类型需实例快速水平扩展\n通过统一平台来混合部署提升资源利用率的需求强烈，容器技术的出现，给了IT行业统一运行环境的梦想和能力。Build Once，Run AnyWhere\n统一的Infrastructure平台能支持多种计算资源统一调度能力，如AI的GPU，web业务的cpu，大规模容器集群管理，K8S已是无可争议的事实标准\n针对K8S自带的资源调度器依次调度策略，不适合AI和大数据场景的问题（这些计算任务包含的容器想要的是，要么同时都成功，要么就都别执行，否则等于白跑），也有了增强型调度器Valcano（尤其是总体资源需求&gt;集群资源时，依次调度存在的问题很明显），Valcano解决了Gang Scheduling的问题，要么都成功，要么都别调度，基本可用来解决死锁问题，还提供多种调度算法，满足各种复杂场景需求，提高资源利用率。\n对象存储的基座\nHDFS上云碰到的矛盾\n企业自建大数据时，一般使用裸磁盘搭建HDFS，为了解决裸盘损坏的风险，HDFS设计了多副本机制保证数据安全性和可用性。数据上云，云提供给用户的是有多副本机制存储的云盘，直接用云盘就成9副本了，成本上升之余大量浪费资源\n云也会提供一些有裸磁盘的机型，但这类机型往往很少。云盘可以随意配置，但有裸盘的机型只有寥寥几款，选择余地不一定能匹配企业集群需要。\n况且你用裸盘，云的开箱即用，弹性伸缩按量付费这类优势，都被放弃了。自己创建机器，手动部署和维护，自己监控和运维，还不能方便的扩容。\n对象存储出位\n\n随之云计算成熟，多了一种对象存储作为选择，不少云厂商都在尝试往对象存储替代HDFS的方向去发展\n\n采用EC纠删方法，实现存储优化，低成本高可用，优于HDFS三副本\n开箱即用免运维，按量付费无需规划\n也支持海量中小文件，对非结构化数据分析场景较有用\n\n对象存储在并发访问的支持，前端应用的调用方面，默认高可用，及采用成本可控的分布式架构，相比HDFS文件系统，块存储和NAS存储有很大优势，因为是云端存算分离架构的主流存储底座。（阿里oss宣传冷热分层存储，整体存储预估下降成本20%）\n兼容（以JuiceFs举例）\n\nJuiceFS Hadoop SDK：部署在执行节点上，SDK完整兼容HDFS\n\n兼容POSIX API，HDFS在设计时就是简化版的POSIX\n得益于Hadoop的设计，在一个Hadoop集群里，可配置多个文件系统，JuiceFs可以和HDFS同时使用\n\nJuiceFS Metadata engine：相当于NameNode，文件系统的元数据信息存储地。\nS3 bucket：等同于DataNode，看成海量磁盘来用，它会管理好数据存储和副本的相关任务。\n对象存储的原生弱项\n\n文件listing性能比较弱（对象存储没有树形结构，是扁平的，当文件数量众多，前缀匹配搜索的性能比树形结构差），可listing又是文件系统中一个最基础的操作\n没有原子rename操作，影响人物稳定性和性能（用新文件/目录名，作为key复制旧对象，此时会发生数据拷贝，一次copy和一次delete）\nETL计算模型中，每个任务将结果写入临时目录，整个任务完成后临时目录改名正式目录即可。在常规文案系统中此操作是原子的，速度快，有事务性保证，可由于对象存储没有原生目录结构，处理rename是一个模拟过程，会包含大量系统内部数据拷贝，耗时比想象的多\n\nMR过程会产生大量的list和rename操作，相比原生HDFS，对象存储在大数据分析效能会有明显的性能损失\n\n\n最终一致性机制会降低计算过程的稳定性正确性\n\n多个客户端在一个路径下并发创建文件，这时调用 List API 得到的文件列表可能并不能包含所有创建好的文件列表，而是要等一段时间让对象存储的内部系统完成数据一致性同步，List在ETL 数据处理中经常用到，最终一致性可能会影响到数据的正确性和任务的稳定性\n\n\n\n对象存储的元数据加速\n\n直观简述：元数据操作会路由到元数据加速层进行处理，小投入大收益\n\n元信息数据（文件名，分块信息，分块所在的服务器等）存储在索引库表中。按主流公有云对象存储设计，会按照字典返回文件索引信息（索引信息存储在ssd盘上，拉取索引信息的性能会受限于SSD盘单进程限制），每个存储桶list qps很难达到很高的值\n\n以腾讯云的测试结果举例\n\n\n\n元数据数量\n指令\n开启元数据加速\n未开启\n\n\n\n\n5w\nls\n4.359s\n10.354s\n\n\n50w\nls -R\n7.065s\n21.376s\n\n\n1000个100KB文件的目录\nrename\n1.016s\n30.323s\n\n\n\n参考\n1.Juicedata，从 Hadoop 到云原生， 大数据平台如何做存算分离 ↩2.TencentCloud，听说你想把对象存储当 HDFS 用，我们这里有个方案 ↩3.Meta， Taking Advantage of a Disaggregated Storage and Compute Architecture ↩4.CSDN, Hadoop势微，云原生上位 ↩5.阿里技术, 大数据上云存算分离演进思考与实践 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["云原生","大数据","存储"]},{"title":"互联网交友","url":"/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E4%BA%A4%E5%8F%8B.html","content":"\n交友，跟人类所有活动一样，都是有动机的。三类诉求应该能涵盖\n\n要么某种同好聊得来，士为知己者死\n要么有所求(利益/信息流动)\n要么男女之爱\n\n数字不说谎\n人人都从陌生人开启，转入熟识，有些再继续转入陌生，走着这样的轮回，有些就真成了要好的朋友，但这个比例不会大。经数据调查证实，一个人真正的朋友多在10人以下，且一个人能保持联系的友人在150以下。这个数字在Facebook上也能得到印证，平均每人130个好友，但常联系的只有4-6个（放宽点在7-15个之间），通过分析用户的交际圈分组，85%的组是不属于朋友概念的，且多数是维持4-6组不超过10个人的关系人组。在北美的其它调查中，平均每个人有10个左右关系较近的朋友（每周交流或见面），同样佐证着数据范围。\n你可能好奇，what the hell about 150，150个人的维系差不多是普通人脑袋能力的上限。Oh my god，真的么？新石器时代的村庄，通常在达到150个人后，会拆分为2个，罗马军队也是150个互相认识的人一组，对数字不服来战。\n我更激进的认为，线上的轻量化使得你更容易与人保持联系，其实回归到线下，你会更加缩小朋友范围，以日常电话时间举例，你80%的电话是打给同样的4个人，表明电话圈是强关系控制的。说实在的，你的熟人没你想的那么多，精力跟不上时，你还会启动关注隐私问题。\n两大流派\n\n交友应用两大流派\n\n一个流派是把用户数据“封闭”，阻隔用户获得其他用户信息，站方从中赚钱，这就是“婚恋网站”；\n一个流派是把用户数据“开放”，用户随意搜索和联络其他用户，站方试图通过用户的粘度，而以广告费或增值费获得收入，这就是“（通用）交友网站”。\n\n基于“保持联系”的SNS应用成为主流；而“认识朋友”的SNS应用被边缘化，是最近这些年SNS领域的整体趋势。\n列了数字，其实也得谈谈产品。搞产品第一是搞定位人群，再之搞产品人员境界，此两点导致每款产品想要的世界不同。婚恋网站因为真正需要用户花大钱的交友过程，并不在其上实现，所以是个想象力不大的生意，我们不多谈。说另一派，不远的几年前，数家SNS网站并存，争斗的还很厉害，现在都消停了【咋个回事，网民规模脱离疯狂上升期是背后实质推手吧】，我们都说以史为镜，可知兴衰，开始吧。\nSNS的大败局：我们都不谈内部争斗问题\n开心网之死\n开心网死于腾讯的挤兑和微博的崛起。腾讯本走屌丝路线，以MySpace模式迎战51.com的，**且一般来说，社交网站可以由精英往草根发展，却难以从草根向精英发展。**但腾讯因为强大的QQ关系链支撑，就是可以做到逆袭。你以社交游戏起家，我就抄你一个开心农场出来，抄一套Facebook类的观感给白领人群用。\n\n这里有一点，紧随Facebook路线的校内网并没有像Facebook一样占领白领人群，因为中文公司用户保持联系的需求被其它工具个满足了，例如QQ。打动他们的是社交化游戏。\n\n09年微博的出现，又更多的分流了白领人群，状态更新什么的，我天然能替代，还能提供到更多有价值的信息，还有明星参与，且微博更好的察觉对接到了无线互联网的趋势（Twitter 70个字的限制你就知道天生要玩手机端）。\n51.com之死\n51的名字听起来像”我要“，总有人说搞情色交易或妓女化交友。但我觉得创始人绝不是这个初心吧，但确实走的是农村包围城市的道路，以简短好记的域名，不错的访问速度，席卷厂妹和二三线城市枯燥人群。\n其靠陌生人交友起家，在没有同好因素支撑的人群中，第一大支撑力就是荷尔蒙（展示自己或约炮，哎，寂寞啊。因为生活枯燥，其实他们有本能的思乡和地域情结）。如果陌生人之间缺乏约束，低俗后，容易对女性用户造成不利刺激，此类情况若驱逐走了女人，社区衰落是不可避免的。\n在急躁的盈利和发展压力下，搞出的东西没服务好自己的目标人群。搞游戏其实也不适合它，厂妹哪有时间玩游戏。往城市人群扩展，同样碰到草根转精英的不匹配问题。当然其死亡当然也少不了腾讯的挤兑。\nFacebook之活\nFacebook有很多缺陷，但是它靠发展为一个平台，撑了下来（且一直注重人的互动联系），这就像Amazon的创始人一样，靠的是洞察力布局支撑公司的发展。Myspace败在管理人员眼光（我想被新闻集团收购后的管理问题估计也导致它走向必败的结局）\nSNS结语\n保持联系比创建朋友重要\n但线上保持联系，不好做（手段很匮乏，除了评论回复，多是利用用户的虚荣心），其不像门户类并没有改变用户的阅读行为，聚餐，泡吧，踢球等导致交友结果和保持联系的行为，复制不到线上来。就像Facebook的长期繁荣也不是靠互动支撑一样（逃脱了每过几年被新兴形态挑战替代的风险）。\n总结下来，纯交友诉求的网站，除了婚恋类，后期都会遇到劣币驱逐良币的宿命问题。\n搞社区和UGC是一种出路，这两样要关注信噪比，低信噪比的产品也会自然变成落后的物种，消亡是注定的。信噪比不仅仅适用于社区内容类，所有SNS类都适用。微信的私密朋友圈交往，抢夺微博的人群，也是一个例子。\n互联网时代大分而不是大同\n因互联网时代引起的”大分“和年轻人总是不喜欢跟老产品老人们混在一起（老产品也感知不到年轻人的口味），使得认识朋友的需求永远极其庞大，“嗷嗷待哺”，站方只要提供一个合适的产品，就能快速发展。但拉到人群之后，你会继续面临保持联系的基石问题，如何把自己的平台变成一个重复访问的用户寄居地，哦，想起信噪比，听起来头大又那么牛逼！\n我说的都是错的！\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["社交"]},{"title":"五大新型黑产","url":"/%E4%BA%94%E5%A4%A7%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%A7.html","content":"\n就如历史的教训一书中所说，各个时代的丑恶只有种类的差别，而没有程度的不同，罪恶在每一个时代都蓬勃发展。黑产也环绕在我们这些心思简单的人身边。聊以记录，给立体脑袋的知识边角多填充点内容。\n\n如果没记错的话，内容应该来自公司的邮件推送，煞费苦心\n\n\n\n不断翻新的网络赌博\n不用过多解释，已形成完整产业链。甚至几个下方的黑产都是为非法赌博的衍生品。不得不说，合法的赌博只有政府开的有礼有节的档口，不是政府开的都没有良民证，也确实政府的智商税档口相对有礼有节一点。\n\n\n出租收款码轻松躺赚–实则在为黑产洗黑钱\n交付一定数额的押金，再按对方要求输入收款金额，然后把收款码截图发给对方，就能拿到一定比例的佣金。\n**非法赌博网站**精心研究出的新型洗钱路径，利用互联网的庞大用户将他们的赃款分散。不知不觉沦为了违法犯罪活动的工具，可能需要承担法律责任\n\n\n动辄千万的数据深化–刷量黑产\n从粉丝数，互动量，播放量，任何数据都可以轻易飙升，都可以造假，刷量服务随着技术日益升级，已然形成一条专业化，体系化，分工明确的黑产链\n\n\n出国务工高薪梦\n好机会，但门槛却很低，没工作经验，学历，专业的要求。其实这是招聘 网络博彩 行业推广业务员。让受害人人财两空的杀猪盘就是他们的杰作之一，外表光鲜，实际没有完成公司制定的业绩，就会遭到警告，记错，罚款甚至是毒打，软禁。\n\n\n谈恋爱误入杀猪盘\n杀猪盘是业界的一种俗称，指打着交友名义，通过培养感情获取信任，再诱惑受害者至**博彩网站**实施敛财的新型情感投资类诈骗，人才两空。\n\n\n博彩博彩，真是一个个诱人香喷喷的好项目。投资亦是Game，普通人上牌桌上莫过于放大自己的欲望！\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"五阶段职业模型","url":"/%E4%BA%94%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html","content":"\n一定是少数人经历全部5个阶段，更少的人经历过一次以上的周期循环。我们也会听到或看到有这样的人，在达到五个阶段中的某一个时刻，选择回到上一个阶段重新开始。\n五阶段职业模型\n搭建一个共同的语境，使得大家建设性的探讨职业进步，收获职业生活的洞察力。\n阶段并无职业路径的对错，因为它跟个人的欲望关联，且上山下山皆有流动。\n洞察可建立对自身的理解与对话，在碰到职业困惑时，能跳到更高的维度来看见自己，看到来时路与指引未来路。\n\n\n阶段1：测试你的训练成果\n测试你的知识和完成任务的初始技能，探究个人的核心资源和关键业务模块。例如大学毕业生即将开始第一份全职工作，切换职业身份重新开始\n阶段2：发展你的专长\n建立声誉（比知识技能发展重要），回应你的价值主张，如何帮助他人\n阶段3：在你的专长领域成为领导者\n挑战（切换思维模式，从第二阶段的自驱型的独立思考到系统化思考），帮助他人的工作变得更加有效\n阶段4：引领更加复杂的环境或超出你专长范围的环境\n走出舒适区，团队连接，需要更加综合的模型理解（企业模型等），你能否感知跨领域的问题，事件，需求和趋势，并实践指导解决\n阶段5：管理复杂度更高的环境或重新开始\n极少数人经历全部五个阶段，更少的人经历过一个以上的周期循环\n变身定位问题的提问者\n趋势方向上，我们会转变为定位问题的提问者\n\n从你告诉我怎么做做什么，到解决问题，提供答案的人，再到定位问题的提问者\n这个过程并不是那么简单，就如《你的灯亮着吗？》这本小书里提及的，如果对问题没有一定的常识，解决办法几乎毫无疑问是针对这一被误解的问题\n\n在构筑一个领域的常识或高阶知识时，本身就是一个不断捕捉和思考问题，独立思考的积累过程，这个过程中\n\n首先是时刻保持问题意识，有效的问题多半与生活和历史的情境有关，抓住问题有时要求走出书本\n找（提）出自己的问题，问题很小无关紧要。大问题总是通过小问题来显露端倪。\n再次，在思考中澄清扩展提升问题，当你用尽所学仍不能做出令自己信服的答案时，恭喜你，找到了自己的真问题大问题。记录或表达出来寻找共鸣或更好的分析和回答。\n\n尽力的往复，这就是你的深层积累，换种形象的说法，是一种摔熟泥巴的过程。雕塑家在未形成作品的构思时，摔泥巴是他们的日常活动。\n\n尽力的往复且澄清扩展，感知现象–探索规律，从现象摸索更高能级的规律解。\n如光电效应一般，尽力的往复加深仿佛就是提高辐照光束频率，这才能高效的促成激发\n\n价值主张的机会矩阵\n\n问题，事件，需求，趋势\n\n\n\n\n待帮助/待解决机会分类\n价值探测解析\n价值主张（提供的帮助）\n价值主张内涵\n\n\n\n\n问题\n东西坏了，运行不良，或新需求萌生\n解决方案\n对新方法，新服务或新产品进行调整，修复或建议\n\n\n事件\n东西没坏，但规则，条件改变了。如新法律\n创新\n适应新事件的影响，前摄性地调整事务或环境\n\n\n需求\n填补空白，如进军新市场\n资源\n满足需求的人力，资金，物料或知识产权\n\n\n趋势\n事物在朝新的方向演进，或人们习惯发生了改变。如行业机器人化，衍生公司要减少原有人员，补充机器人工程师\n定位&amp;创意\n利用趋势或最小化风险\n\n\n\n问题方向不同，致使解决问题所提供的价值主张有所区分。细分带来不同的机会，商业上更是如此。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["职涯"]},{"title":"亚伯拉罕诸教的差异","url":"/%E4%BA%9A%E4%BC%AF%E6%8B%89%E7%BD%95%E8%AF%B8%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n亚伯拉罕诸教\n基督教、伊斯兰教和犹太教被学术界称为亚伯拉罕诸教，因为他们都相信有位先知亚伯拉罕，在古兰经里，亚伯拉罕也称 易卜拉欣。\n经典成书的时间和过程\n\n\n《旧约》 前1200-前400年，上帝只选了犹太人做他的子民，从埃及返回迦南福地，建立国家，可惜后又被巴比伦国蹂躏。\n\n\n《新约》 公元50-100年 ，两约之间是记录空白。普世性较好，因为耶稣的时代，以色列这地方已经有很多不同种族混居，所以发展为其它种族也可以信仰基督。可惜不被犹太人所容，被钉死在十字架上。\n\n耶稣原本是犹太人，出生在地中海东岸的伯利恒（耶路撒冷南），当时此地属于罗马帝国。被征服地区的人不但没有公民权，反而是罗马征服的劫掠对象。\n为了反抗罗马征服的残暴统治，耶稣在原始犹太教基础上创立了基督教，给广大被征服地区人民带来了希望，自称弥撒亚（救世主）得罪了犹太教 [犹太教里本身也期待一个弥撒亚]，罗马人正在失去对很多地区的控制，行政当局也在寻找其统治不力的替罪羊，两者一拍即合耶稣蒙难。\n\n\n\n《古兰经》 公元610-633年。阿拉伯地区部落常年征战，贵族作威作福，商人和穷人都生活无望，且被波斯人欺压。默罕默德嫁给一个遗孀后，生活的挺滋润，经常山洞清修，本身不识字，但听过基督教牧师很多故事，在这样的时代背景下，借了基督教的很多信息创立了伊斯兰教。给了穷人希望，从实用的角度上强调顺从，团结阿拉伯人，取得了空前的成功。\n\n阿拉伯半岛生存条件比地中海差多了，沙漠多宗教多部族林立；穆罕默德出生在阿拉伯半岛红海东岸的麦加城，是阿拉伯人。\n阿拉伯人和犹太人都属于闪米特人的一支，可现在势同水火。其实当今的犹太人是精神上的犹太人，巴勒斯坦人才是传统意义上的犹太人（没有出去流浪），只不过皈依了伊斯兰教。\n\n\n\n每个后继者是前者的补丁版，古兰经是矛盾处最少的一个\n\n\n古兰经圣经异同\n主旨概念异同\n\n古兰经大量故事与新旧约一致\n古兰经不承认基督是神的儿子，因为这违背一神教的原则，基督只是与默罕默德一样的先知\n古兰经认为旧约，新约都是被篡改的经，而古兰经是创始之前就有的，天使授与先知\n根据圣经，人是堕落的罪人，而古兰经则说人不是罪人，但他基本上是善良的\n根据圣经，魔鬼是堕落的天使，而根据古兰经，魔鬼不是堕落的天使，而是堕落的精灵\n\n文本风格差异\n《圣经》文本的风格各异，不一而足，内容包括历史，诗歌，哲学，甚至私人信件和讲章，历史版本也多，原始文本是希伯来文和希腊文，现实流行文本是英文等欧洲文字。神学贯穿于文本意义的表达之中。\n《古兰经》文本的风格统一，是自由的韵文体。原始文本和现实通用文本是阿拉伯文，译本只能用做参考。信仰的表达不仅在于文本（text），还在于诵读（chanting）。与意义相比，声音的作用更加直接和实在。\n\n《古兰经》共114章，6236节，其中穆罕默德在麦加口述了86章，占全书的三分之二\n他迁移到麦地那以后又口述了28章，占全书的三分之一。麦地那的部分的确提倡圣战，应该也是解决矛盾的实用主义需要吧，毕竟默罕默德它最终发展成是政教合一。\n\n穆氏在麦加传教时期势单力薄，因此阿拉要先知与信士们对冒犯者温和宽恕，甚至以德报怨。\n麦地那伊教强势时期，针对异教徒与敌对者阿拉给穆氏的命令总是攻之杀之。\n\n\n\n信仰体系总体特征\n基督教强调信仰观念，犹太教强调行为律法，伊斯兰教观念和行为是紧密捆绑在一起的。\n《旧约》强调对神的“顺服”，但缺少普世性；《新约》强调的普世性，而弱化了仪式、律法的约束。从《旧约》中犹太人不断恶化的历史产生了末世观和对弥赛亚的期待。福音中所表达的是末世观。人们期待耶稣的再次降临和末日审判，他们过集体的生活，轻现世。保罗神学提出了“十字架奥义”即“赎罪说”，强调灵魂的拯救，是对末世观的扭转。但《新约》以《启示录》结局，末世观的影响非常深远，直至今日。\n在伊斯兰教中，造物主是绝对的超越的，人对主是绝对的依赖和服从。而信仰和仪式是紧密结合的。把对造物主的信仰与普世性结合起来，把精神的信与实践的信结合起来。\n\n伊斯兰教法规定，成年穆斯林在具备一定条件的情况下，要承担 “念、礼、斋、课、朝”五项基本功修，这是磨炼穆斯林宗教信仰意志所必须遵循的义务\n\n对死亡的看法\n基督教强调现世人避不开罪恶，信仰基督赎罪，死亡是人类犯罪后的结果，肉体死亡但灵魂未灭，赎罪说使得基督徒更为痛苦点。\n伊斯兰教则被称为“两世吉庆”的宗教，现世的享受与考验，后世的审判与结局，都需要一个“身体”来实践和承受。将今世的现实生活视为人的旅途，将后世视为人的归宿，倡导两世并重。\n二者都信死后复活，信末日审判，按生前善恶受审判，善者进入天园，永享幸福，恶者堕入火狱，备受痛苦。\n人间世认识差异\n伊斯兰主义意图借着实施伊斯兰宗教法（Shariah）以建立阿拉国度（Hakimiyyat Allah），以为那就是人间天国。\n\n理论上伊斯兰十分重视道德。原则上禁止收取利息、奸淫、酗酒、无故杀人、赌博等恶行〔包括禁食猪肉〕。按照伊斯兰教义，敬虔、顺从、慷慨、怜悯、宽恕、好客等都是美德。穆民之间也常强调宽恕、互爱与合一。\n但穆斯林没有义务爱仇敌，因为以眼还眼、以牙还牙，是天公地道准则，然而有时若不报复可算为是项赎罪功德。\n上述伦理准则“大致上”〔非尽然〕乃从犹‧基宗教传承的价值观\n\n按照基督信仰，人若不重生就不能见也不能进神的国，更不必说要靠守律法以建立人间天国，或者说就没有人间天国。\n两家教义大意\n基督教\n你行公义，好怜悯，存谦卑的心，与你的神同行。（弥迦书6：8） 耶稣对他说：“你要尽心、尽性、尽意爱主（你的神）。这是诫命中第一，且是最大的。其次也相仿，就是爱人如己。这两条诫命是律法和先知一切道理的总纲。”（马太22：37-40）、\n伊斯兰教\n\n一方面同情穷人，一方面让人忍受现世\n\n把自己的脸转向东方和西方，都不是正义。正义是信真主，信末日，信天神，信天经，信先知，并将所爱的财产施济亲戚、孤儿、贫民、旅客、乞丐和赎取奴隶，并谨守拜功，完纳天课，履行约言，忍受贫困、患难和战争。这等人，确是忠贞的；这等人，确是敬畏的。（古兰经2：177）。\n一些严重的观念冲突\n父子与主仆\n穆斯林最引以为豪的是“真主唯一”的一神信仰，引述主耶稣的话说 — “当相信并敬拜独一真神”，进而控诉说基督宗教徒的三位一体乃敬拜多神。\n对基督宗教而言，伊斯兰神观最大的缺失在于否定宇宙真神的父性。否定神是耶稣基督在天上的父，也是基督门徒在天上的父。“上帝是父”乃是犹‧基宗教共有的基本信念，由基督宗教加以进一步的发扬光大。\n在伊斯兰神人之间乃属于主仆关系而非如基督宗教的亲子关系；在神与人之间的亲情与生命关系层面；在伊斯兰世界，人不能称为阿拉的儿女，因为阿拉没有儿女。伊斯兰不单否定上帝是父，否定人（被上帝创造）是上帝儿女，而是主仆，也否定耶稣基督是上帝的独特儿子，人不可能与阿拉的生命与性情有份。\n两大教义形而上争论主仆与亲子之间的差别乃关乎生命的本位与本质，现实世界上还是地理地盘利益之争。\n救赎\n伊斯兰认为只有阿拉是救主，众先知只是真主委派给人类的代言人与警告者。认为人要得救唯有仰赖真主的怜悯并个人努力修行。相信通天的路是伊斯兰的“沙里亚”（宗教法，涵盖基本信仰、宗教功修，以及个人与社会生活守则）而非基督的十字架。否定主耶稣被钉死在十字架上，也否定十字架代罚替死的救赎恩情。穆斯林认为耶稣被钉死在十字架是误解历史，而十字架代罚替死的救赎是不合理性也违背道德的。伊斯兰教认为阿拉至高至伟且拥有无比权能，因此没有必要流血赎罪（剥离简化了《旧约》里“不流血罪得不到赦免”的天命）。他若愿意只要说声“赦免了”罪恶也就都赦免了。\n基督宗教确信耶稣基督不单是最后也是最伟大的使者与先知，更是上帝为全人类设立的独一救主与君王。基督信徒无不为基督十架代罚替死的救赎感恩称颂，穆民却看十字架为错误与羞辱。认信于流血赎罪的犹‧基宗教早已因个别因素停止杀牲献祭，而否定流血赎罪的伊教反而至今犹在朝觐季节大事宰牲。伊斯兰认为杀牲仪式无关赎罪，乃在表彰亚伯拉罕/穆民对阿拉的顺服与摆上「把某些东西呈交给另一个人，归还给主」。犹太教停止祭牲因圣殿早已被毁；基督宗教从开始即不祭牲因确信基督本身已成为终极性的代罪羊；\n基督宗教不单认同摩西律法的流血赎罪体制，更是藉着十字架的救赎把它涵义提升。伊斯兰以繁杂的宗教法为宝贝，基督教认为其实大多是糟粕，更可悲是因而错失了十字架的救赎恩情。\n\n十字架赎罪真理的缺失，致使看不到伊斯兰的阿拉对罪人终极性的爱悯。伊斯兰处处所表达的，乃是阿拉按自己意愿所命定“要怎样就怎样”的全能谕令。\n\n爱与怜悯\n伊斯兰不说“阿拉是爱”，因认为阿拉肯定是大过爱；但穆斯林乃开口闭口提述阿拉的慈悲（rahman）与怜悯（rahim）。承袭十字架学说，按基督信仰，主耶稣（神化身为人）十架上的死乃彰显了天父上帝在基督教为罪人自我牺牲的爱，犹如父母为儿女之受苦牺牲。\n按伊斯兰信仰，阿拉对他仆人的爱不过像君王或沙漠酋长对其子民般的施舍、赐福与恩待，无论在今生或来世，需什么给什么。针对天父上帝“在基督里”为罪人所作主动、十字架之爱的舍己牺牲，伊斯兰认为那是不必要、多余的；尊荣全能的阿拉没有必要这么样“作贱”自己！\n东西方争与不争\n基督教到了后来权力无边，而伊斯兰教从一开始就政教合一，二者水火矛盾很大程度上是利益之争。因为利益，两个宗教总是希望自己的教众越多越好。西方人不明白为什么中国人不信教，中国人同样不明白西方人非要入教。\n中国的道教受老子哲学影响，多数都是抱着出世的心态，一幅高冷样子，你爱入不入（老子的风格在文学回忆录系列中有较多的描述）。基督教和伊斯兰教不同，一听你没入教，立马一幅怜悯的姿态，这是上帝的弃民呀，赶紧入教救赎自己吧。\n中国道教人士，盛世上山修行，乱世下山救人，这很好，出家人就应该像个出家人的样子嘛。基督教和伊斯兰教一开始就要参与政治，争取权力，最终演变成利益之争。\n道教的特殊\n基本上所有宗教都是构建一个死后的世界，天堂、地狱、六道轮回，这些东西来营销本质是售卖来世的幸福。唯独中国道家讲今世的修炼，目标瞄着肉身成仙而去，本质上是一种身心修炼学说和技术。\n\n\n\n道家这个设置很难卖出去，有几个能修炼成的？太容易证伪\n\n\n而售卖来世的好处可以不考虑售后服务，也不用考虑顾客的评价。\n\n\n\n道教没有信徒供养系统，要么收精英，要么自己打工挣钱（看风水，算命，健身，驱邪，习武）。\n道家的精神状态\n说了某人的坏话，别的教都说你犯了口业，损福报，只有道教会说你是他的报应，他想找骂你成全了他，你是积德。\n烧香烧不着，可能道长会直接说那香受潮了，换一把别受影响。\n心情不好，很多人会劝你不要太敏感，要学会调节自己的情绪，道长会说不是你的问题，而是有人克你。\n道家主打一个无为自在，顺应本性，不留遗憾，只有活得畅快，才不憋屈，自然也就身心舒畅，少生病。\n中国人信自己不靠神拯救\n中国人不把神当做主人来信仰，从中外远古大洪水的处理方面就可见一斑，中国人相信自己不靠神拯救，努力工作，最终疏通战胜了洪水自然灾害。神只是中国人的打工仔，需要神仙帮忙的时候，先去烧香付订金，事成再去还愿。如果神仙能力不行，脾气好的也就拜拜了，脾气不好的可能直接砸了它，美其名曰追究违约责任，不过有砸佛像的，少有砸关二爷的，他更像中国人道德的模范，是中国人优良美德的化身。\n神仙在中国的待遇，简直妥妥工具人。\n\n例如人们出于工具性的目的和龙王建立了不对等的交换关系，不灵就抬出去晒太阳，抽鞭子，谁允许你躺平。\n神连单间都住不上，很多都是群租房，多教合一，一个庙里同时供奉佛，菩萨，关二爷，龙王…甚至还有孔夫子，一个大殿挤满各路神明。😂\n\n鲁迅说，中国人敬神，是想控制神，利用神才是主要的。想抱孙子就拜菩萨，想发财就拜财神，想读书做官就拜孔子，各路神仙随便用，不似西方意识中充斥神对人的惩戒与怜悯，中国人实用主义的行为，恰表现了以人为本的思想态度。\n如果神能让人丰衣足食，那么早就见过，曾经他是神农，后来他是袁老；若神能移山填海，那么他曾是愚公，现在被称为基建狂魔；神能百战百胜，曾经他叫轩辕，现在他在天安门广场上。炎黄子孙人人都是神，神就体现在每个中华儿女身上。\n扩展好奇下\n大食与教派\n倭马亚家族和哈希姆家族为争夺哈里发位置爆发内讧, 分裂为逊尼派和什叶派\n白衣大食：\n倭马亚王朝【逊尼派】\n黑衣大食\n阿拔斯王朝【借什叶派力量推翻了倭马亚王朝，可后来什叶派和王朝统治者哈希姆家族杠上了，哈希姆家族皈依了逊尼派，剧本就不按常理去发展】\n\n什叶派也有自己合理的解释：只有阿里的后代才是合法的哈里发继承人。而阿里是先知穆罕默德的侄儿兼女婿——也就是直系后裔，阿拔斯王室虽出自先知一系（也就是穆罕默德系）的哈希姆家族，但其祖先却是穆罕默德的叔父；故阿拔斯王室不具备合法的哈里发继承资格。\n可阿里已去世100多年，且由于倭马亚王朝对哈希姆家族的残酷打压，阿里的直系后裔早已在反抗倭马亚的过程中被斩草除根，绝后了。什叶派就是死脑筋。\n什叶派搬出之前抗争倭马亚时期出现的“隐遁伊玛目”理论，认为当年反抗倭马亚斗争中牺牲的最后一位伊玛目（阿里系嫡传领袖），并没有被倭马亚势力杀害，而是被真主置于人所不知的地方，将来会以救世主的身份重现，在人间建立正义和太平盛世。所以哈里发的位置依然是由这位不知道在哪儿的隐者来做。触及了阿拔斯的利益，就怪不得阿拔斯不念旧情了。\n\n中西亚沿线各板块会凭借畅通的东西商路而获益颇大，政治上的统一才能保证商路畅通。所以，为了商业利益，伊斯兰将中亚各地缘板块整合到了一起。正所谓经济基础决定上层建筑。而商业贸易的收益并非全部，还有以农牧业为生的部族和地区，并不会因为伊斯兰世界的大一统而分得一杯羹。总有一些边缘的地区和部族，在东西贸易的获利剖少，心不甘情不愿的被两河流域的伊斯兰中央政府统治，两河流域的体量有限，其地缘影响力不足以强横震慑地缘势力。\n哈希姆家族反对的，仅仅是倭马亚王朝本身，是想倭马亚家族取而代之，成为伊斯兰世界的统治者。而边缘势力他们不想被阿拉伯帝国统治，是想获得政治独立。原来的盟友变成了敌人，便不难解释为何边缘势力会重提隐遁伊玛目，否认阿拔斯王朝的统治合法性；而阿拔斯王朝则皈依受绝大部分穆斯林尊奉的逊尼派，转而对什叶派和边缘势力大势打压。\n两派冲突其本质是主张统一的伊斯兰中央政府与寻求独立的边缘势力之间的矛盾。后来16世纪伊朗萨法维帝国尊什叶派为国教的选择，也是地缘政治的因素，使得什叶派也有能挺胸抬头的一片天。\n阿巴斯王朝极为强盛，可蒙古西征铁蹄，仍然将其碾平。\n绿衣大食\n北非伊斯兰王国，法蒂玛王朝（909年，奥贝德拉什叶派首领在突尼斯以法蒂玛和阿里的后裔自居，自称哈里发），与黑衣大食并存一顿时间，但整体王朝时间较短，又被其大臣推翻，建立其它王朝，与我国历史上的交集较小。\n佛教\n是一神教吗\n\n\n如果“神”指的是世界的主宰、造物，佛教就是无神教（接近于万物有灵论）。佛教信仰的目标是涅槃，不是神，是一种修行的状态。\n\n\n如果“神”指的是超自然的存在，佛教就是多神教。佛教有许多天神地祗，但不包括佛、菩萨、罗汉。\n\n\n其实是一套哲学\n佛理和佛教是两个事情，不信教可以信佛理，例如善恶终有报，虽然轮回说是错的，但结果和初衷是好的，算是善意的谎言。\n佛教主讲的是降低欲望来获取平静，获取智慧。但民众理解能力太低，讲底层原理没有哲学功底的人很难听懂，为了打入下沉市场，轮回说完美贴合了人性的趋利避害，促成用户极速增长（概念能力）。\n\n推崇降低欲望，在宗教事务运作和传道手段上，又推崇多多造像，有功德有福报（竟然整出一本《大乘造像功德经》，也给了教众从业者灰度敛财的空间有利于组织的发展），侧面印证西游记如来讲的 经不可轻传。也得益于造像运动，历代的供养人给大家留下了宝贵的记录历史，生活，审美的传世作品。\n\n何为五荤三厌\n\n五荤指五辛（五种辛味蔬菜），道家佛家炼形家的五荤清单各有出入，但都有蒜，说是熟食生淫，生啖增恚[hui-4声，愤怒怨恨]（提高人的性欲，使人发怒）\n三厌道教指雁（天），狗（地），龟（水）。雁有夫妇之伦，狗有扈主之谊，乌龟有君臣忠敬之心，故不忍食。\n\n荤原本是荤辛，后不知何故，传为荤腥，从造字上看，荤草字头，为植物。腥月字旁，指肉类。\n五荤三厌是佛道二教的混合物。佛教为在家的男女教徒又制定了八项戒条：不杀生，不偷盗，不淫欲，不妄语，不饮酒，不眠华丽之床，不打扮及观听歌舞，正午过后不食。是为八戒。\n佛教禁欲与酒肉穿肠过\n禁欲不是目的，而是手段。如上五荤是五种含有大蒜素的蔬菜，它们会提升人的欲望，目的是不要被欲望干扰你的思维，近早达到不被欲望控制的状态。\n成佛不是剃发修行，不是具体的形象，看破了欲望，不被他操控，反过来掌控欲望的时候，就能做到胸有惊雷而面如平湖，泰山崩于前而不惊，才能真正百无禁忌，才能酒肉穿肠过，佛祖心中留，不被戒律形式所锢。\n为何要善良\n在弱肉强食的现实规则中，从善良中能得到切实的好处。善良能让你变强，本质上让你克制欲望，净化欲望，让你的眼睛和心更清澈，明心净目，看清很多事情，提升智慧提升创造力，提升思维能力，让你的判断更准确，当你在生活和事业上的决策比以前更正确，人生当然会变得更好，这就是善的好处。\n作恶有什么坏处？所有的罪恶都来自于对欲望的过度追求，所以恶的本质是你在追求欲望，并且被欲望控制。当你凝视欲望的深渊，深渊也会凝视你。失控的欲望会极大的影响你的判断力，影响你的思维能力，增加你出现重大决策错误的概率，最终导致灭亡，这才是善有善报，恶有恶报的唯物辩证解释。\n宗教一字师\n\n基督教：爱\n伊斯兰教：从（顺从）\n佛教：空\n道：虚/道（虚不是没有，是不执着于一端，自有规律），但道教也是最好教人自处的哲学，超越情绪的干扰。不管别人说你好，还是说你不好。说你好是因为别人今天心情不错，说你不好，是他今天自己有问题，所以看你不顺眼。大家要的是独立，让生命能站在自己的脚上，相比于儒家教的让人真诚，道家教人真实，所以自在。人到中年，有点道家思维挺好的。\n\n道法术器：法为人定，有善恶。\n\n道：方向；法：路的选择；术：驾驶技术，操作方法；器：车\n道：趋乐避苦；法：威逼利诱；术：具体实施过程；器：工具，资源，条件\n道：特定的顺风车；法：搭便车；术：戴高帽；器：小红花\n\n\n\n\n儒：礼（礼法，食不厌精脍不厌细）。改良后的儒家，把礼搞成实践仁的外在形式和途径，打扮成道德伪君子，不甘寂寞热衷入世，在权势旗下做个伪娘奴仆，多数历史下除了吃就是跪。\n\n儒家除了孔子等少数几个，都在术以下的层面，汉武帝看得很明白，独尊儒『术』，改造后的儒家是用来治士的\n理想是穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下。帝王可又不信这一套，拿着商君书管着千千万万读论语的人，算是一个扭曲的体系。\n儒家不算是实学，不教数学、自然科学和地理，更多是一种思想建设；最大的问题是没有胆量超越权势，和正义无缘\n\n\n\n\n佛修心，道修骨，儒修表\n三清只需泥土身，佛祖却要黄金渡，乱世佛门不问事，老君背剑救苍生\n\n参考\n1.认识伊基 从伊斯兰的古兰经与基督教的圣经看这两大宗教的异同 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"产品意识","url":"/%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86.html","content":"\n造神前言\n在互联网圈里混，多少要培养一些个人的产品意识。用最直白的话来说，什么是产品意识，其实就是对人性的洞察。所有的大而玄的东西谈产品，如果不说人话，你就可以把它们踢到垃圾堆里。有一段时间，在鹅厂狂吹张小龙，造神一样，其实也是广研团队下层自身需要的宣传，虽说造神，但不得不说张小龙确是人才，杰出程序员，到了不惑年纪，看透纷繁复杂的羁绊，了解各种行业迷障，搞产品懂用户也是一等一的厉害。特摘录改写部分分享内容，提醒自己没有一身研发功夫的产品经理不是好运营。我们这里不看营销，不看技术，只看产品。\n后来梁宁的产品经理30讲和增长30讲也讲的很好，讲到产品经理的能力其实是建立信息秩序的能力，干这行也需天分，天分的一点是敏感度高。后期难以培养，就像个性特征+动机+价值观=天赋一样，这些都是在其过往的经历中基本已经定型了，瓜若强扭大概率不甜。\n用户定位\n\n要设计一款网络产品，我觉得最关键的是首先是定位用户，而不是想做个什么，就像张小龙这样，研究透了群体，做么样的东西如何做不容易错。想干个东西，多问问题把自己问醒。三个就够，what/who/why。\nwho\n这个层面谁人都绕不过去，举例说微信就是做普通百姓，不限行业，不限能力，不限年龄。\nwhy\n各种不同类型的产品，就是找自己的价值点。微信以好玩起家，以简洁干练的爽构造自己的体验哲学，以低噪音生活化信息流经营自己的最大价值。莫提生态体系，那是讲给市场听的。\nwhat\n张小龙分享谈到的内容，更多的集中于what这个层面（因为他的who很宽泛）。 what中的产品展现气质的定位和哲学，粗线条的观点是有演绎推广内涵的。细的举例又具有醍醐灌顶的趣味效果。\n一款产品的气质其实也是讲产品经理的自我修养。what!\n洞察最本质的用户心理诉求\n心理满足的驱动力，远胜工具和省钱。面向普通用户的互联网产品，要利用好人性的驱动力，贪嗔痴或性。举例来说，\n\n\n微博上的用户心理诉求是自我存在感\n\n\n微信植根于手机环境，定位要比它更简单好玩，而不是简单的点对点省钱。\n\n\n\n关于微博和微信的用户画像分析可阅读另一篇详细的文章，传送门在此\n\n洞察诉求，要懂人，如何获取用户心理？\n这条线中，其实你无法了解他人，只能理解自己，要从己出发推演人最普遍的心理活动，捕捉大众需求，而不是海量的个性化需求。其实你蹦出来的或听到的琐碎好点子99%都是脱离需求的，用户反馈也只是帮你了解他们的想法，终要回到内省归纳。莫太相信集体智慧，集体决策导致平庸和各个部分的分裂，不要贬低自己，你的短板可能就是你的强项（例如，社交恐惧者可能知道怎么做社交产品）。哐哐哐地列了这么一大堆，强调的是重视让人都能用都会用的基本需求，很多（个性）需求都是不必做的。逼迫自己变成傻瓜看待产品，变不成就别放过第一印象（忘性大就记下来）\n营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚\n像《乌合之众》中说的一样，群体智商本身低于个体智商，群体自己会表现出像一个完整生命个体的特性，就好像蜜蜂群尽管没有管理层却会统一行动一样。傻傻的人们他们会跟风，自认为跟的是“时尚”，这种时尚是互联网产品重要的推动力，有价值的好用产品，会成为时尚。\n抛开价值，怎个好用？乔布斯的高境界在于Stay hungry，Stay foolish，如果套在用户身上，就是让我爽，不要让我思考。爽是用户需求，不思考是用户体验。在这种情况下，面向懒人设计，简化场景选择，保持主线质量，给用户自由用完即走，这样你才有好用的口碑。\n产品设计-少即是多\n像科学界的奥卡姆剃刀原则一样，理论都是宁少勿多。很多物理学家会说我们发现宇宙的规律是很简单的，那么既然上帝创造宇宙订立的规则都这么简单，然后演化出这么一个多样世界，为什么我们要把很多事情搞复杂化？留点空间，多点可能，因为你的决策来自个体推演，群体行为有规律但难以预测，你不也在试验和迭代吗，站在上帝身边的PM，也要学着上帝的哲学（做多就是抹杀）。体验要简单，规则要简单。记得每增加一种选择，都让用户迷惑，不固定感跟用户对随机的好奇，不是一个事儿。\n举个不设定复杂规则的例子，SNS玩的都是群体效应的功能。当初做摇一摇或者基于LBS的附近的人，也没想到用户会拿来干什么，只是往好玩好用，爽方面做。让用户自己去演化发掘（人们首次相互被看到时，值得期待用户间会发生什么，况且陌生人交友嗷嗷待哺，是你保底的需求点）。\n产品迭代的过程中，主线功能不强，堆再多辅助功能也没用，做好条理分类清晰的主体特性（分类本身就是人脑的学习&amp;工作机制的天性），感受关注用户的潮流和反应（非常重要），等待他们说，太好玩了。\n\n关于微信的发展和迭代路线，可窥见其对内核和次序的选择，传送门在此\n\n平等 &amp; 灵魂\n\n跟用户平等做朋友，做有灵魂的产品\n欢迎页是你为数不多的表达感受的地方，让每个欢迎页都是一个故事，让产品值得期待，传递人文意识当然更高级。\n文案特别提下，产品中的文字是你和用户在说话，反映了你的气质。不讨好用户，不抬高自己。不用“吧”，“哦”，提示语不累赘加“成功”等多余字眼，用你不用您，不勉强用户使用功能。QQ邮箱管理员附上真人信息，也是尊重用户的一种体现。\n**互联网产品应让个体更自由。**工业化满足低成本的诉求，个性化体现独特价值，长尾和碎片化越来越明显，大家可创造的希望也越来越多。但不意味着你能像超级App一样规模化成功。\n\n\n互联网没有造就一个大同的世界，而是大分。因为大分才是人群的本质，感谢互联网打破了时空阻隔。\n\n如果现在来回应what，应该是什么？\n\n\n有机联系的结构（产品结构）\n\n\n有肌肉（功能）\n\n\n有气质（价值观）\n\n\n反应敏捷（速度快）\n\n\n理性（逻辑清晰，交互合理）\n\n\n谈吐佳（文案）\n\n\n好玩的补充（醍醐提醒）\n\n管理是不自然的，SNS产品不要让用户卷入到管理工作中。例如通讯录分组（微博分组，google+其实做出来了没人用），别以为这是真实大众需求\n不搞已发送已阅读之类的，也是做到简洁自然不累赘。老板用上已阅读特性，还不把下面的人紧张死，要允许人性的缺陷存在。\n需要打通，说明不是需求。需要整合，说明都不行了。需要拉动，说明是KPI了。需要导入，说明没有生命力了。避免全面，全面的东西是平庸的。\n微博上的人的心理诉求是自我存在感，其实活得都不是自己，并不是自言自语，而是博主希望在听众心目中构筑自己希望的形象。微信植根朋友圈，信噪比高，让用户使用维护起来简单轻松，胜在这里\n\n后记\n这一篇记录的比较早，有一种在微信如日中天时代跪拜+碎碎念奉若圭臬的感觉，不如另一篇讲用户思维来得简洁，可以对照着看。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"人力资源的阶段和策略","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E7%9A%84%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E5%92%8C%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5.html","content":"\n前言\n\n文章摘抄而来，主要目的是解释领域概念。因为各领域都有很多系统化研究和沉淀，这些系统化的知识利于经验转化和传承的效率，也利于看清问题与共识交流。\n\n老板们永远希望人才能够“来之能战、战之能胜、胜之能好”。不仅如此，他们还希望人才能够跟随企业一起成长，焕发第二春。但他们的期望是一条不可能曲线，当人才带着职场经验过来，他们心里的决策模型已经固化，能力提升空间也有限，就是来寻求“能力套现”的，如果天天进行价值观“同化”，还希望人家再学习，再实现创意的井喷，这就非常不理智了。引进型人才确保发挥出正常水平即可。\n另一个无奈的现实是，高潜型人才也会出现“技能过时”，而成熟型人才也会出现“激励两难”。人力资源战略必须在动态中寻找空间。\n作者举的例子中混合型策略并不是华为独享代表，其实阿里，腾讯都是。常青树科技公司，必然都在赋能型上下了大工夫。\n赋能型的代表海底捞，中海地产，讲得也实在。\n面对职业倦怠期越来越短，人才战略的讨论，请见此文\n\n据非正式调研，\n\n\n1990-2000年期间，中国企业员工的平均职业倦怠期为5-7年；\n\n\n2001-2010年期间，平均职业倦怠期缩短为3-5年；\n\n\n2010-2020年期间，平均职业倦怠期进一步缩短为1-3.5年\n\n\n\n人力资源经营的四个阶段\n\n\n\n引入；\n\n\n增值，人力资本的初次增值，企业用沉淀的组织知识来提升人才素质，使其匹配企业的各类组织单元。如图中平坦曲线显示，这个环节的操作需要长期投入才能见效\n\n\n项目的激励（投资评估），人力资源的再次资本化，即将人才配置进组织单元里，辅以项目式的激励和风控机制，将其锁定为与项目的股权和债权关系。陡峭曲线显示这个环节的操作可以短期见效\n\n\n项目的赋能（投后管理），这是人力资本再次增值，即为项目提供人力资源管理解决方案，增加其成功可能性，同样需要长期投入才能见效\n\n\n\n三种人力资源战略与代表\n\n激励型人力资源战略\n\n让自带技能包核心人才与企业共同劣后，提升其意愿。适配低成本竞争战略（供给侧稳定，需规模效应摊低成本或需求侧大量重复标品，低价多销），仅需要快速稳定的输出\n\n人力资本增值出现在1、3阶段。用支付杠杆引来了成熟型人才，对其进行初步绑定后，再为他搭好班子，配好资源，下沉权力，再用激励手段将其牢牢绑在项目上。\n\n第一阶段用得好的是小米等互联网企业\n第三阶段用得好的典型是海尔，万科，碧桂园等传统企业的先锋。\n\n\n赋能型人力资源战略\n\n让企业的核心人才队伍良将如潮，用自身丰富的资源或方法论培养高潜型人才，提升核心人才仓的人才密度。\n适配差异化竞争战略，也就是厚利少销（聚焦高支付能力的客群）。要么供给侧有大量创新产品或服务，要么需求侧有精准的顾问式销售，让有限的客群产生体验感。人才必须实现与企业的融合，才能产生深度创意\n\n增值出现在2、4阶段。分为资源赋能和方法论赋能，前者指资源连接，后者的本质是人才培养。这样做企业必须有足够的底气：一是自己资源好，二是自己方法论好，能够让普通的人才快速成长。这是一条更不容易走的路。\n企业代表\n海底捞，中海地产是这种战略典型代表。海底捞有严格的任职资格体系，对人员的改造效率超高；中海地产为核心人才设计了阶梯式成长路径，在每个关键节点都有赋能项目的介入，使其人才培养与成长效率在业内首屈一指。\n这些企业不怕人才被挖走，挖走才有职位空缺让后来的年轻人上位，人才供应链才能正常运转（人才的年轻化是发展的诉求）。值得一提的是，不少企业选择这条路不是因为自己的资源和方法论好，而是为了节约成本。\n难走的路收益才厚\n难走的路：下跳棋没那么便宜\n不少企业想下跳棋，用“带教”来跳过知识管理（知识萃取，知识分享），这是错误的，采用这类战略的企业必须用心打磨自己的人力资源政策，在任职资格体系，素质模型，课程体系，讲师体系，培养项目等方面花心思，有投入。\n最佳状态\n最佳状态是：员工一旦进入人力资源体系，高手的知识自动上传，徒弟的知识自动下载。这种体系是卷入式的，不以个人意志为转移，才能实现真正意义上的赋能。\n\n混合型人力资源战略\n\n多数企业其实是执行混合人力资源战略\n\n华为是典型的例子，为员工设置了人才培养长周期，抵达产出的拐点之前（成为华为的“奋斗者”）以赋能为主，而在拐点到达之后则以激励为主，员工不仅可在项目中获取丰厚的奖金，还可以分享TUP激励，即有效期为5年的股权激励。\n大部分实施混合型的落实不好，因为决心不够，赛道不够。\n忌讳的操作\n胡乱建仓\n\n由于企业未清楚自己想要什么，导致大力气找来的大牛空降后迟迟不能有所产出。最后企业觉得自己花了冤枉钱，而大牛觉得企业耽误了自己的机会\n纸面上储备人才，动辄招入高、精、尖人才，并没有将人才校准至战略需求，不能发挥价值时，人才也会自然选择离开，最后的结果就是双输\n\n盲目乐观\n\n引入了成熟型人才之后，没有意识到他们的技能会随着企业的发展而“相对衰退”，没有提前做好补仓的准备，导致产品或服务水平波动。\n高潜人才发展带来的红利后，没有意识到他们有离开的风险，依然用感情去规划未来，没有提前做好补仓的准备，导致的产品或服务竞争力不足\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"人文旅者","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%97%85%E8%80%85.html","content":"\n人文旅者\n上周下班路上撞见同事，等地铁间隙串起话题她在这疫情年还出游了-- 四姑娘山，一个四川阿坝藏族羌族自治县的景点。相较于这种内心所往风雨无阻，我就顺嘴自嘲自己就没这份勇气（19年其实到了不少地方，算是非常有收获了）。对方（园园）也很有趣的说起，记忆里我应该也是很爱玩的人，在敦煌都流连超时不愿上大巴，可不，封面就是在敦煌景区展览馆拍的一些文物复制品，我个人对于这种历史物件，非常有好感。\n这引起了一个差异话题，接着聊起来，例如她就打卡自然景点，我就更偏向人文景点，在自然景点，我更像是一个做任务者，要从起点冲到终点，不能掉队，不喜拍照，不喜一直停留，这种习惯可能原因有三\n\n\n自然除去美景，还有很多不便和危险，人类个体并无对抗自然的决胜能力，美景与危险并存，其实并不能长久相处（自己也有舍友生活在西藏半年，2周后就彻底对周遭景色失去了感觉）。通常时间计划安排紧密，为了在有限的时间里观览足够多的景色，也需要快步赶路，才有可能充分贪多式观看。另附带有明确的目的地，最终在阶段性目的地附近游览更为妥当，不给团队造成麻烦\n自己幼小一直生活在城镇中，更熟悉人群聚居的环境\n自然的故事没有温度，没有多样化演绎，没有嬉笑怒骂，没有我了解的故事凝结，触发不了最大化的思索联想\n\n从书本上接触到了除了名山大川，更多的是历史人文古迹与文物，这些文物凝结了时代的故事，穿越了时空来到我们面前，从接触和了解的密度而言，我更喜欢联想这些物件当时所见证的一切。\n正如《春江花月夜》中的诗文所比：\n\n江畔何人初见月，江月何年初照人\n\n我更关心的是这里的核心 – 人\n又如李白的《把酒问月》里：\n\n今人不见古时月，今月曾经照古人\n\n这里的第一句的古时月，就好比当时的故事，第二句的今月就相当于穿越时空来到今人面前的物件。\n穿梭城市亦然，我可以观察不同地方人的生活习性的差别，语言的差别，饮食的差别，建筑的差别，地理的差别，气候的差别，这些差别构成了一幅完整的画卷，你不可能活出一份完整的人生，这些画卷丰富了你的体验，联系了你有限的知识，而你，只需要驱动身体+开动脑筋。\n别了，那些广袤的历险之地，洞天福地，有限的选择我投向能将眼睛和大脑喂饱的地方，因为放空实在有太多的办法。\n后记\n附上几张19年国博，中国美术馆和天津，西部所拍的照片，聊以记录那经历的时光\n\n\n\n天津也正是因为海河，孕育与北京截然不同的气息风格\n\n大家同时拍四羊方尊，记录下来比我拍的一张干净的四羊方尊照更有意思\n\n\n\n日常训练并不让拍\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["日记"]},{"title":"人生三见-不着相","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%81-%E4%B8%8D%E7%9D%80%E7%9B%B8.html","content":"\n见天地，见众生，见自己\n天地\n天地是规律是时序轮转，是道法自然，阴晴圆缺\n见了天地，格局宽广了，心胸开阔了，体会了伟大与渺小，尽力谦卑\n自己\n自己是一团被欲望塑造的七情六欲，贪嗔痴恋，得见自己，唯有回归本心，自知，自省。\n见了本我，感受真我，不以物喜不以己悲，最终自然通透豁达。\n众生\n众生是人性，妖魔鬼怪，名利权情。经历人生起伏，体验人情冷暖。\n何以得见众生，无谓善恶是非。见了众生万相，修得荣辱不惊，众生在眼中，也在心中。\n容而不满，痛而不悲，苦而不语，宽容自生\n\n见山仍是山\n\n苏轼晚期的诗《观潮》：庐山烟雨浙江潮，未至千般恨不消。到得还来别无事，庐山烟雨浙江潮。\n\n还来：回来\n\n王国维《人间词话》描绘读书的三重境界亦是同味\n\n昨夜西风凋碧树，独上高楼，望尽天涯路\n衣带渐宽终不悔，为伊消得人憔悴\n众里寻他千百度，蓦然回首，那人却在灯火阑珊处\n\n不着相\n\n金刚经向外破相，心经向内破执\n\n金刚经所说的其实是这样一句：人生不过是一场游戏，不要着相。只要你不着相的玩下去，所有的游戏都是好玩的，也不会有苦和恐惧来折磨你。\n\n人生三万天，放在历史的长河中连沙子都不是，就跟没来过这个世上一样，就如你不记得你的太爷爷是谁一样。人这一世玩累了就回去躺着了，你会死，你身边的人都会死，你在意的事情终有一天都会消失，空无一物来，空无一物走，那么沉重没必要。\n生活就像一场游戏，重在享受体验，谈恋爱关系不能带来快乐就分开呗，找另一个人谈朋友，不断的向前，像水一样不断的向前流动。你活成一个苦瓜，你这辈子也不重要的，终点也是死亡；勇敢追求自己想过的生活，终点也一样。大家只是过程的不同，过程的体验不同。\n\n佛像大人，带着我们这些凡夫状的小孩去游乐场，每玩完一个好玩的，小孩子总想多玩几次赖着不肯走。佛陀告诉小孩不要太执着一样游戏，小孩终又哭又闹，心不甘情不愿继续玩下一个后同理亦不舍。等到全部玩完要回家时，又抱着游乐场的大门柱子不放，要死要活不闹不休。\n\n任凭佛陀一再解释这个游乐场是假的，只是个梦，但小孩子听不进去，游乐场在小孩眼里是真实不虚的天堂，在里面永远是那么快乐。但在佛陀心中清楚这座游乐场是很多因缘聚合而成的假相，所以他不会执着，而我们小孩子会执着认为这些游乐场会永远存在。\n\n金刚经是要告诉我们，生命的过程是要我们体验了解生存的感觉。用有限脆弱的生命，且使用期限不长的肉体，来完成一些使命和任务，悟透一些道理，重拾我们的本心。包括对金钱的态度，如果我们不懂得用钱，不懂得钱的力量的和意义，人生功课也是等于交白卷。\n换一种世俗的角度来说这个事，人在起步的岁数，看世界上的一切皆神奇，去到一个从来没去过的地方，见到一个从来没见过的风景，遇到一个可爱的人，觉得兴奋异常。等到后来，发现很多的地方都很相像，所有的风景都很重复，所有的事情都很平庸，所有的事情或许没什么最终意义，心情就会变得沮丧，此时没有一个游戏心态，情何以堪。\n从微观的角度，只有把生活当做游戏才能快乐；从存在的角度，只有把存在当做游戏才能超脱。上面蓝色字体总结表达的就很到位。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"人种迁徙与语言分布","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83.html","content":"\n当初看《人类基因的历史地图》这本书，实在有些啃不下去，配图太少，不善用符号，文字没有情感，导致基本只能记住线粒体夏娃，中国的黄种人由东南亚进入中国版图这样的印象。是近几年中读书没有读完丢在一边的特例，但仍埋下了种子。无意间网络间见一老兄推荐『天涯论坛』的一篇帖子讲世界中国史(此链接已失效)，过去一观，开篇的问题就能勾住我的眼球，没想到接着往下翻，前面古人类的篇章，写的非常好，遂摘录整理，非常感谢原作者。作者的帖子火了，后来也出了书（在参考资料章节），是对知识和实力的肯定。\n地理与气候\n地区盛兴的气候，植被，风向本文并不细讲，其实地理联合气候决定了很多大历史，是探讨大周期历史必须要关注的，正所谓地理是最大的历史，不过本文摘录的重心不在这里，就简要记录几个有名的地点解释，放在文尾。\n人类登场\n\n在登场之前的年代，最有名的就是恐龙时代了，距今过于久远，人类并不是最佳运动员，不是体力身形最大者，但现在是地球实际的霸主，我们来一张动物身形对比图, 看看我们地球上曾经出现过的恐龙猛兽们。\n\n\n蓝鲸没有恐龙大，但可能借助海洋的浮力，有着更多肉更重的身体。\n翼龙不是恐龙，而是一种会飞的爬行动物，翼龙和恐龙、鳄鱼都是从主龙类爬行动物进化而来，算是表亲（骨骼结构不同；恐龙定义很窄：限指蜥臀目和鸟臀目，且限于陆上爬行类。其希腊语名词本意就是恐怖的蜥蜴；\n恐龙一词翻译取自日本，日本人将这这个外来词翻成恐竜，被旧时代的中国借鉴复用）。翼龙没能进而为鸟类就灭亡了，一般认为鸟类是由恐龙中个体较小，身体轻巧，速度快速的驰龙科进化而来的。\n\n按照现代生物进化分类学“界门纲目科属种”七分法，人类属于动物界—脊索动物门—哺乳纲—灵长目—类人猿亚目—人科—人属—智人种。现存与人类关系最亲密的就是类人猿亚目生物，共分为长臂猿、红毛猩猩、大猩猩、黑猩猩四大类，号称四大类人猿。\n直立人\n\n更古老的南方古猿等等猿类就不讲了，直接从直立人开始。为何直立人能如此强大，成为猿人中唯一幸存者？答案就在他的名字上——直立，以猩猩为代表的灵长类动物其上肢比下肢更发达，而直立人下肢骨骼明显比上肢粗硕，关节韧带牢固，大腿肌肉发达，已经和人基本无异，完全为行走而生。\n其大脑左右两半球出现了不对称性，显示出直立人已经有了掌握有声语言的能力。两足行走和大脑发展让他们更好的使用双手并进行发明创造，他们开始使用火种，并发明了制造工具的工具——手斧。\n手斧让他们制造工具更加精细，并出现较先进捕猎工具——石球，石球是一种投掷工具，除了用手直接投掷外，还能作绊兽索和飞石索使用，其有效射程可达50-60米之远。\n工具的更新让直立人狩猎能力大大提高，而直立行走让他们完全他们更好的迁移和奔走，直立人开始大批走出非洲，向世界各地扩张觅食，在欧亚大陆各地发现的欧洲前人、印尼瓜哇猿人、中国的北京猿人、陕西蓝田人、云南元谋人都属于直立人种。\n多地区进化说被否决\n因为中国出土了连续性化石遗址，而世界各地也都出土猿人的化石，所以中国原来一直是“人类多地区进化说”的支持者，主张现今的棕黑黄白四大人种分别起源于澳大利亚、非洲、中国、欧洲四个地区，分别从当地猿人进化而来。\n\n黑人腿长，擅长奔跑和跳跃，打篮球。黄种人四肢短适合举重，如女子举重几乎被中国和朝鲜垄断。\n\n这种学说符合种族主义的观点，也就是说现存人类早在猿猴时期就分出个高下不同，不过在化石和地质学发现上目前却非常不给力。\n东亚直立人灭绝\n通过地质学推测在10万——6万前，东亚地区经历了一次剧烈的冰川期，东亚气候可能不再适合人类生存，原来繁盛的东亚古代直立人（如北京人、蓝田人）消失了。在距今8万——5万年间，中国境内没有发现古人类化石。化石断层的存在说明中国境内直立人可能都灭绝了，没有进化为距今3万年左右的山顶洞人。\n当然化石没发现，并不代表没有，但是“人类多地区进化说”最关键的是违反了遗传学上的常识。因为这根本无法解释太早分化却没造成我们和其它人种的生殖隔离，如狮子和豹子间才有100万年的进化距离，就无法繁殖后代，直立人可是180万年前就出现的物种，能够繁衍后代的四大人种间显然没有这么大的进化距离。\n如果“多源说”成立，意味着中国人和直立人这些猿人血缘关系比白人、黑人更近。既然中国人能和白人、黑人混血，意味着更能和和直立人等猿人混血繁衍后代，想想直立人是什么样的吧，眉骨突出，嘴巴突出，全身长毛，相当于现代人和猩猩差别一样大，完全是两个物种，连语言发音都可能不相同，而白人、黑人主要只是肤色、发色差别，语言也无发音障碍。明显从外貌看中国人和黑人、白人更像是近戚，而直立人只能和猩猩攀亲戚。而且各地直立人能一致突变出只是肤色不同、还能繁殖后代的现代人类，这对进化论来说根本就是天方夜谭。\n单源说是主流\n目前科学家通过基因检测的方法得出北京猿人是一种已灭绝的人科动物，四大人种都是起源于非洲的智人的后代，单源说已经成为主流。\n\n人属（学名 Homo）是人亚科下的一属，共 17 种，其中 16 种已经灭绝\n\n已灭亡的人种代表\n海德堡人大约在70万年前从直立人演化而来，是直立人的一个亚种，比直立人脑容量大（1100~1400 vs 900~1200 ml），被认为是智人的祖先, 且已经会制作工具，其活动范围主要在欧洲和非洲，那时这两块大陆相连，后来海平面上升，欧洲和非洲被隔离，遂区分为欧洲海德堡人和非洲海德堡人，演化出两种不同的智人。\n尼安德特人\n欧洲海德堡人先行演化成适应寒冷生活的尼安德特人（早期智人），其分布足迹遍布整个欧洲到西亚，甚至中国和西伯利亚也留下踪影，但非洲没有发现化石，估计没进入非洲。他们会保存火，形成了原始的宗教，虽有比现代人更大的大脑，但未必更聪明，从数万年间工具没有更新就可见一斑。\n在非洲的海德堡人稍晚一点在撒哈拉以南演化出现代人祖先，成为晚期智人。现代人有出色的狩猎技术，进入欧洲时，也是尼安德特人遗迹消失的时候，在灭亡大部分尼安德特人时，也在地中海东部与小部分尼安德特人发生了混血，所以目前除非洲外的人类大都含有尼安德特人的基因。\n佛洛勒斯人\n除了尼安德特人和现代人外，印尼猿人也演化出新的物种佛洛勒斯人，传说被称为“小矮人”：霍比特人，身材矮小，仅1米左右，脑容量为现代人1/3，但构造复杂智商也高，遗憾的是，1.3w年前的一次火山喷发，这群印尼霍比特人全部灭绝。\n现代智人\n人科动物虽然下属种类极多，但只有现代智人种存活下来，这说明拥有高智力并非就能在物种竞争中占据优势，就好比现在最聪明的猩猩也当不了百兽之王一样。只有当智力发展到一定高度，人类才整正成为地球霸主，现代人的演化也并非一蹴而就。\n过去教科书一般把现代人种根据肤色划分为几大人种，但其实更应该以遗传学为依据，通过演化的过程进行划分，肤色只是表象而非本质。\n\n就像非洲鬣狗虽然长了副狗的模样却属于猫型亚目，和其他猫科动物一样有相同的祖先，和狗只有八竿子打不着的关系。\n\n基因也并非越纯种越好，事实证明较纯种的基因大多是人口较少，与世隔绝的小部落，而发达地区，因为吸纳各地优秀人才，必然融入更多种族基因。分子生物学的研究，现在地球各人种，都是十五万年前某一非洲女性祖先的后代，男性祖先是一名六万年前居住在非洲的男子(亚当年限不同文献有不同的说法，wiki百科倾向于6~9万年之间)，有究底兴趣可看文章线粒体夏娃，亚当夏娃相差近9万年。\n人类迁徙发展\nY染色体立大功\n单倍群\n单倍群或单倍型类型是一组类似的单倍型，它们有公共的单核苷酸多态性祖先，单倍型是单倍体基因型的简称，在遗传学上是指在同一染色体上进行共同遗传的多个基因座上等位基因的组合\n\n中国人的单倍群类型是O3，不过O3不仅出现在中国，在东南亚也大量存在\n\n当前科学家已经将各民族的父系来源通过Y染色体研究的比较清楚，而母系来源至今如同雾里看花，几乎所有民族的母系构成都比父系复杂，主要有以下两点原因：\n\n斗争中，弱小民族的男子多数被杀死，而女子往往作为战利品被战胜方掠走，导致母系来源较丰富\n通婚主要表现为女子外嫁，一个地方男性来源都是本地男性，而女性来源则来自各地。\n\n只要通过Y染色体就能比较清晰发现人群的迁徙和发展，但这仅仅是因为其遗传模式简单，容易研究，无关疾病，相貌，相对说得清楚一些。\n\n当然，忽略N代前无数个母系祖先而只管一个纯父系祖先传下来的遗传物质，无疑是荒谬的，如欧洲白人基因R，世代娶E（黑人基因）女性为妻，尽管父系染色体还是R，但体质实际上就等同于E，已经完全是黑人了。\n\n今天所有人类的Y染色体单倍体类型（只有精子和卵子是单倍体，其他细胞都是双倍体）都能在非洲找到（M168、YAP、M130）类型，而非洲以外的居民，都是一支走出非洲居民的后裔，他们的Y染色体上都带有M168的突变点。这就是亚当的后代，在以后的历史中，人类依次发生几次基因分化，形成现在不同的人种，按先后，用A、B、C等来标识\n\n Y染色体在遗传的过程中，每经历一定的世代就会出现一个随机的SNP突变，父系关系更近的男性共享更多的SNP突变，通过这个方法我们可以判断不同男性之间的父系家族关系。将所有男性的Y染色体进行对比，我们就能得到人类父系家族的谱系树\nSNP突变发生的速率基本是稳定的，这样我们只要得到两个男性的Y染色体各自积累的特异SNP数量，就可以据此计算出这两个男性个体的最近共祖时间\n\n结论先行\n\n\n分化次序文字化解释\n一：祖先人——A科伊桑人（南部非洲棕种人）、B非科伊桑人\n\nA——科伊桑人：代表是南部非洲棕种人，目前非洲南部国家有大量他们的单倍群类型\n\n二：非科伊桑人——B尼格利罗人、C非尼格利罗人\n\nB——尼格利罗人：代表是非洲中西部矮小俾格米黑人，主要集中在非洲中西部国家\n\n三： 非尼格利罗人——CF集团、DE尼格罗—尼格利陀人种（亚非黑种人）\n四：DE尼格罗—尼格利陀人种——D阿伊努—尼格利陀人人种、E.尼格罗人种（常见黑人）\n\nD——尼格利陀人：他们父系单倍群比率占印度安达曼群岛土著(100%)、尼格利陀人苏门答腊岛土著(91%)、阿伊努人（90%）、冲绳人(55%)、藏族(50%)、彝族（40%）、日本(34.7%)、朝鲜(7%)\nE——尼格罗人：常见到的身材高大非洲黑人单倍群\n\n五：CF集团——C棕色人种、F中东部落\n\nC棕种人在大洋洲他们的父系占澳大利亚土著的70%、几内亚岛的25%、婆罗洲的17%、在南亚个别达罗毗图语系民族中比率达到20%\nC3——蒙古支：如今亚洲满族的25%、朝鲜族的16%、蒙古族的58%、布拉特蒙古人在60%、哈萨克族的45%、吉尔吉斯人60%、回族的23%、阿尔泰族的23%、乌孜别克族的17%都含有C3单倍群，尤其是西伯利亚南部和东北亚鄂温克族、鄂伦春族等通古斯民族C3单倍群更高达60%以上，在北美阿拉斯加印第安人种比率也高达30%，\n\n六：F中东部落——G高加索单倍群、H印度蒙达单倍群和IJK集团\n\n中东部落：广泛分布欧亚，其中有一支较古老的在斯里兰卡，又叫斯里兰卡单倍群，占达罗毗荼人诸民族的13%\nG高加索人种：占亚美尼亚人20%，又叫亚美尼亚单倍群，意大利族的6%、伊朗族的5%、土耳其族的11%\n印度H单倍群 占达罗毗荼人种18% 、印欧语系的印度人的20%\n\n七：IJK集团——克罗马农人种I、地中海人种J、欧亚部落K\n\nI克罗马农人：主要分布北欧—巴尔干—欧洲—中东，今天克罗地亚50%、冰岛的37%、苏格兰的20%、挪威族的30%、德意志族 的25%、西班牙族的12%、意大利族的15%、伊朗族的18%、俄罗斯族的18%、土耳其族的15%都为I\nJ典型地中海人种：闪米特阿拉伯-犹太单倍群，主要分布中东-南欧，中东阿拉伯族的48%、土耳其族的25%、意大利族的 20%、埃塞俄比亚族的15%、伊朗族的12%、印度达罗毗图诸民族的12%、维吾尔族的10%、苏丹的10%为J类型\n\n八：K欧亚部落——LT集团和MNOPS集团\n九：LT集团——L达罗毗荼人单倍群和T埃塞俄比亚单倍群\n\n印度L单倍群：占达罗毗荼人种30%、印欧语系的印度人26%\nT埃塞俄比亚单倍群：主要分布在埃塞俄比亚和埃及，又叫做埃及基因\n\n十：MNOPS集团——伊里安查亚新几内亚M单倍群、巴布亚新几内亚S单倍群、NO黄种人和P中亚部落\n\nS——巴布亚新几内亚高地人S单倍群：主要分布在大洋州、巴布亚新几内亚单倍群，苏门答腊岛的15%、婆罗洲的16%、伊里安查亚新几内亚5%、巴布亚新几内亚的59%\nM——伊里安查亚新几内亚M单倍群，伊里安查亚新几内亚的70%、巴布亚新几内亚的34%拥有M\nN——芬兰-乌拉尔极北单倍群，主要分布在乌拉尔山两侧、北欧北部、东欧北部和北极圈内，占部分乌拉尔族80%、芬兰52%、爱沙尼亚40%、爱斯基摩人40%、喀山鞑靼21%、俄罗斯18%、满族15%、叶尼塞鄂温克族17%、\n\n十一：NO黄种人——N北亚黄种人、O东亚—东南亚黄种人\n十二：O东亚—东南亚黄种人——O1南岛支、O2泰柬支、O3华夏支\n\nO1——南岛支：主要分布在马来半岛、马来群岛、以及太平洋三大半岛上，其中高山族100%、汤加82%、壮族的17.9%、泰国泰族的10%、越南京族的7%、柬埔寨高棉族的8%、土家族的20%、朝鲜族有12%O1单倍群\nO2——泰柬支：柬埔寨高棉族90%、泰国65%、壮族的35.95%，日本族31.7%，朝鲜族32%，满族11%都有O2单倍群\nO3——华夏支：是汉藏缅甸族父系主体黄种单倍群，其他民族占独龙族100%、越南北部50%、朝鲜族40%、满族38%、日本人20.1%、蒙古族20.5%、鄂伦春族 22%、吉尔吉斯族24%、回族17%，维吾尔族14%都含有O3\n\n十三：P中亚部落——Q印第安人、R印欧人种\n\nP——中亚部落：该单倍群类型主要分布在中亚和阿尔泰地区，目前已不多见。\nQ——北亚-美洲单倍群：占印第安人90%、部分西伯利亚土著民族66%、爱斯基摩人47%、印第安人因混血棕种母系而和东亚人有较相似外貌，而爱基斯摩人父系基本是N+Q结合种。\n\n十四：R印欧人种——R1a印欧东支、R1b印欧西支\n\nR1a——印欧东支、又被称为雅利安人单倍群：占波兰56%、阿尔泰族的50%、俄罗斯47%、挪威族的30%、冰岛族的22%、德意志族的20%、芬兰人的20%、吉尔吉斯族的40%、喀山鞑靼的18%、维吾尔族的20%、乌孜别克族的18%、印度讲印欧语的40%、波斯人的18%、土耳其族的8%。\nR1b——印欧西支，其基因又被称为西欧基因：占苏格兰族的75%、西班牙族的65%、德意志族的48%、意大利族的44%、冰岛族的40%、挪威族的25%、维吾尔族的17%、土耳其族的 14%、回族的12%。\n\n\n父系单倍群和色系人种对应规律\nA型、B型、E型主要对黑种人。\nC型、D型主要对黄种人、棕种人。\nF型、G型、H型、I型、J型、R型主要对白种人。\nK型、L型、M型棕、白、黄都有。\nNO型、Q型主要对黄种人。\n\n\n\n\n敲黑板的说明\n\n单倍群的字母并不是严格按照支系的远近关系划分的。比如由于早期发现的SNP较少，认为C、D、E、F是并列的四个支系，后来发现C和F具有更近的共同祖先，D和E具有更近的共同祖先。L、M、N、O、P、Q、R、S、T也是类似的情况。即字母顺序并不能完全反映分化次序和远近关系。\n研究者还发现非洲之外人群中的男性都属于单倍群CT，共享M168等SNP突变，可以追溯到7万年前左右的一个共同男性祖先。这个祖先的两个男性后代分别成为了单倍群CF与单倍DE的祖先\n通过Y染色体的分化时间表明，中东人种（J、G单倍群）虽然过去被划分为白人，但是他们和欧洲白人®分离的时间比欧洲白人®和黄种人(NO)分离的时间还早，所以从主体父系基因角度中东白人和欧洲白人关系反而会更远些。\n不过因地理上接近，欧洲白人和中东白人有更多的机会进行混血，所以他们也逐渐形成某些相同体态特征，而同样地理上接近欧洲白人的芬兰黄种人N和欧洲白人R混血后，就基本分不出差别来，芬兰的父系单倍群有60%属于黄种人，但是他们不但跟周边国家的白种人相貌相似，其皮肤白得程度让大部分欧洲人都自叹不如，更难以想象的是一个有如此多黄种人血统的国家，居然是世界上金发碧眼比率最高的国家，所以无论是从血缘角度，还是从生理特征角度，纯种的欧洲白人和纯种黄种人亲缘关系要比和纯种中东白人更接近。\n和我们是亲兄弟的芬兰人，长得像白人，而和我们只是表兄弟，和欧洲白人才是亲兄弟的印第安人却长得像黄种人，由此可以看出过去只依外形划分的人种是多么片面不科学，中东白人和欧洲白人、亚洲黄人和美洲黄人、南亚棕人和澳洲棕人这些血缘较远的人类，过去被同归一类，认为是同种起源。\n可以说四大人种的划分方法和过去“人类多地区进化说”对应，“人类多地区进化说”就是主张棕黑黄白四大人种分别从澳洲、非洲、东亚、欧洲四个地区的当地猿人进化而来，然后这四大人种再混血形成世界各民族的样貌，其中黄种基因占绝对优势中国人，竟然被认为是蒙古人种（蒙古人被认为是纯种黄种人）和其他人种混血的产物，如今从Y染色体单倍群分化时间看来这种观点已经不适用了。\n各人种登场\n所有人类的Y染色体单倍体类型都能在非洲找到(M168\\YAP\\M130)类型，这说明人类都起源于非洲，不过(M168\\YAP\\M130)虽然在非洲生活，他皮肤可能也是黑的，但是他不是我们所说黑人。现代黑人是在后期人类分化中形成的，他们单倍群类型是E，希特勒就是E的后代，而除黑人以外大部分人种，如我们中国人单倍群类型都不是E\n\n中国人单倍型是CF集团下F中东部落的进一步变异细分，是棕种人集团的后代，黑种人是DE集团\n\nA科伊桑人（南部非洲棕种人）\n被认为现存最古老的人种，可能是人类最早的样子，身材矮小，平均身高145~150厘米，和其它人种最大的不同在于他们的女人又超级巨大的臀部。过去一般把科伊桑人归为黑色人种，但他们肤色呈黄褐色，面部扁平多皱，眼睛细小，体貌与黑人有明显差别反更像是黄种人，且他们都是单眼皮。\n\n\n有一种说法认为单眼皮是黄种人在蒙古沙漠为防止风沙从双眼皮进化而来的（白人黑人都是双眼皮），但事实并非如此，单眼皮是人类最古老人种的特征，双眼皮反而是后来才出现的。\n从语系和外貌上看，科伊桑人又分为科伊科伊人和桑人两支，科伊科伊人又名霍屯督人（意为“笨嘴笨舌者”），桑人又名布须曼人（英语意即丛林人），其中分布于西南非的布须曼人在外貌上比霍屯督人有更多热带特征：如卷发（但卷曲形状和黑人不同），较宽的鼻子和较大且较厚的嘴唇。\n过去科伊桑人广泛分布于撒哈拉以南的非洲，后来由于黑人的屠杀、强奸和驱逐，目前现存不足20万，主要分布在非洲南部从纳米比亚到莫桑比克再到南非的一条狭长且辽阔的沙漠地区。直到今日纯种的科伊桑人大部分依然过着原始的采集、狩猎生活，而赤道南部黑人身上大多混有他们的基因，比如南非前总统曼德拉就是黑人和科伊桑人的混血后代。\nB尼格利陀人（非洲小黑人）\n第二支分化出去的基因是一支更加矮小的尼格利罗人，在希腊语中意思为侏儒，成年平均身高只有130~140厘米。\n尼格利罗人外貌特征是：黑皮肤、深眼窝、塌鼻梁、高颧骨、头大腿短、长得精瘦、人人都腆着大肚子，肚脐眼凸起鸡蛋大小的肉疙瘩。他们没有青春期，8岁即发育成熟，可以结婚生子。他们外貌和我们常见非洲黑人明显不同，所以也深受黑人歧视，在刚果共和国俾格米人和笨蛋就是同义词。\n目前这群非洲小黑人主要生活在非洲中西部的原始森林中，他们称森林为“万能的父母”，自己是“森林的儿子”，过着最原始的狩猎采集生活，他们以白蚁为美食，用芭蕉叶、棕榈叶当衣料和盖房子，从生产力看，他们甚至还不知道怎样取得火种，因此保存火种就成了妇女日常的重要工作。\n\n\n亚非黑人种DE\n祖先分化出两支小矮人后，约5万年前进一步分化出CF集团和亚非黑人种DE，亚非黑人种又叫做尼格罗—尼格利陀人种，是现在非洲尼格罗人种（黑人）和亚洲尼格利陀人种（矮黑人）的共同祖先。\n亚非黑人是第一批走出非洲的现代人，一般认为他们其中一支最早在东南非沿海居住，并开始沿着印度洋海岸向东方扩散开来，沿海地区一路都有稳定的高蛋白海洋食物来源，保证他们可以一直沿着海岸快速移动。 这支黑人从东非沿海—阿拉伯半岛—伊朗沿海一线前进抵达印度、东南亚的沿海，成为亚洲最早的主人。\n进入亚洲后这群黑人和留在非洲黑人同胞由于长期隔离，基因发生分化，分别形成D基因亚洲矮黑人（尼格利陀）和E基因非洲黑人（尼格罗）两种不同的类型。\nE-尼格罗人\nE类黑人就是我们最常见的高大强壮黑人，在体型上**分为赤道北部纯黑肤色的苏丹黑人 &amp; 赤道南部浅黑肤色的班图黑人两大亚种**（班图黑人大量进入中国，广州就达到20w以上，即将成为中国第57个民族）\n\n真正非洲纯种黑人很多都是单眼皮，如西非黑人单眼皮几率接近100%，比亚洲单眼皮比例最高（93%）的蒙古人还高，中非黑人单眼皮也达到92%，美国黑人明星双眼皮多，因其父系远祖26.5%是白人，白人都是双眼皮，而双眼皮是显性基因\n\nD-尼格利陀人-亚洲矮黑人\nD基因的亚洲矮黑人成年男性只有1.55-1.6米，矮黑人除又矮又黑外，还有小眼睛、深眼窝、厚嘴唇、粗颧骨、短方脸、黑眼珠、体毛发达、头发黑色呈波状发等特征，不过也有人认为他们最初肤色可能并不太黑，应该改叫古亚洲人更合适。\n独霸亚洲让矮黑人得到快速繁衍发展，并迅速扩张开来，他们从印度进入东南亚，向西北进入青藏高原，如今矮黑人基因在藏族中比例非常高，达50%以上，彝族矮黑人血统高达近40%的，在苗瑶人群也有较高的比率。\n现代矮黑人的纯种直系后代主要包括印度安达曼群岛和印尼苏门答腊岛的土著，其中印度安达曼群岛土著矮黑人父系血统比率达100%，在苏门答腊岛土著达91%。\n此外在东南亚菲律宾、马来半岛、泰国、缅甸也有矮黑人零星分布过着半原始半游牧的生活，我们从印度和东南亚人黝黑的皮肤也可发现他们身上定混有不少矮黑人的血统。在中国除西藏外，生活在西南地区许多少数民族也有不少矮黑人的血统，如上已经提及。\n\n印度安达曼群岛土著\n\n\nD2-适应寒冷气候的矮黑人\n矮黑人D基因下有一最特别分支D2基因，从东南亚沿海北上中国，并一路扩张至朝鲜，日本。这支矮黑人甚至一度被认为是白人，他们就是日本现在唯一的少数民族–阿依努人，又叫虾夷人，因适应高纬度寒冷气候，进化出较浅肤色\n\n\n高眉深目外貌和最旺盛的体毛，长相甚至类似白人明显不同于周边的黄种人，是日本最早的原住民，创造了一万年前日本最早的新石器时代–绳纹时代，直到公元前三世纪才被外来黄种民族弥生人征服取代，他们中一部分北逃到本州岛北部、北海道和库页岛等地，而另一部分则和外来的弥生人混血融合，成为今天近37%的日本人的祖先。古代日本人身材矮小被称为小日本也和其矮黑人血统有很大关系。如今阿伊努人（90%）、冲绳人(55%)、日本(34.7%)、朝鲜(7%)都有D2基因\n\n\n过去人种学将非洲尼格利罗小黑人、尼格罗黑人、科伊桑人共同被划分为黑色人种，而将亚洲矮黑人划为棕色人种。同时因为亚洲矮黑人和非洲小黑人外形相似，连其学名尼格利罗人也相同，尼格利陀人也都源自西班牙文小黑人之意，所以两者都被统称为俾格米人。\n\n现在从基因分化顺序可以看出亚洲矮黑人无论是和非洲小黑人的血缘关系还是和澳洲人种血缘关系都不及和非洲尼格罗黑人(现在的E型高大黑人)来得亲，原属棕种的亚洲矮黑人应划为黑色人种更合适。\n棕色人种 CF集团–C棕色人种+F中东部落\n矮黑人独霸亚洲没多久，距今5万年前单倍群CF集团中的一支也沿着矮黑人的老路进入亚洲，离开非洲时，还是原始的CF型，到达印度时，亚洲CF人群因长期与非洲CF人群隔绝，演化成独立的单倍群为C棕色人种类型，\n\n\n这群C棕色人种和D矮黑人是最早抵达亚洲的现代人，统称为“老亚洲人”\n\n\n留在非洲的CF人群则继续演化出F类型，他们早期活动在中东地带，所以又叫中东部落。\n\n\n在4万—5万年前，棕种人从印度南部向东迁移，那时地球海平面很低，东南亚的马来群岛与中南半岛连成一片，澳大利亚以及美拉尼西亚的许多岛屿也连在一起。所以棕种人并不需要航海技术就可以扩散到整个太平洋诸岛。在4万年前，棕色人种已经进入澳大利亚，曾经澳大利亚的霸主，历史上最大的蜥蜴——长达6米的古巨蜥，就是在这一时期被棕种人灭绝的，成为人类进入澳洲发展的牺牲品。\n\n如今东南亚印尼东部27.3%的马来人、17%的婆罗洲土著都有棕种人单倍群，印度个别达罗毗图语系民族棕种人血统比例达到20%，而较纯种棕种人的直系后代主要分布在澳大利亚、新西兰以及南太平洋的岛屿上，占到澳大利亚土著70%、波利尼西亚人63.3%以上父系血统比率。\n\n在白人发现新大陆前，棕种人独霸澳大利亚，这也是棕色人种别称澳洲人种的原因。由于与世隔绝，他们文化仍长期停滞于旧石器时代。\n\nC3单倍群-通古斯-蒙古支\n在4万年前左右，一支棕色人种从东南亚北上东亚沿海，演化出单倍群C3人种，这是单倍群C棕种人下影响最大支系，C3支又可称为通古斯—蒙古支，顾名思义，他们是通古斯民族和蒙古族的主要单倍群类型。\n棕种人出非洲进东亚的路线，都是沿矮黑人路线走来。他们和先到的矮黑人发出冲突，事实证明，棕种人更加英勇善战，矮黑人犹如丧家之犬，被一路驱逐追杀，棕种人所到之地，矮黑人都不复存在，大部分矮黑人都被驱逐至边缘的日本、琉球列岛和中国西南的山地、高寒的青藏地区以及东南亚的密林里。C3棕种人成为东亚的新霸主，并扩张至北亚和中亚，还继续沿西伯利亚东海岸北上越过白令海峡直至美洲地区，成为美洲最早的居民，在今天北美洲阿拉斯加地区印第安人也有比例高达30%的C3单倍群。\n\n如今亚洲满族的25%、朝鲜族的16%、蒙古族的58%、布拉特蒙古人在60%、哈萨克族的45%、吉尔吉斯人60%、回族的23%、阿尔泰族的23%、乌孜别克族的17%都含有C3单倍群，尤其是西伯利亚南部和东北亚鄂温克族、鄂伦春族等通古斯民族C3单倍群更高达60%以上。在中国发现山顶洞人化石也被认为是棕色人种。\n这些人群后来多少都受来自中国黄种人单倍群混血（尤其是内蒙古人）故形成和中国人较相似的外貌，过去一般都将C3单倍群为主人群划分为黄种人，现在看来叫他们棕黄人种也许更合适点。\n\nC单倍群棕种人体貌总体特征是单眼皮、黑眼珠、小眼睛、宽平脸、粗颧骨、扁鼻梁、塌鼻头、黑卷发、身材矮小。\n而C3单倍群棕种人因为所处维度较高，所以进化出较浅肤色，此外还有浅眼窝，眉骨不明显、身体柔韧性好等特征，现代亚洲黄种人因大多混血棕种人，所以也大量保留了这些特点，在混血较多的满族、朝鲜族身上更加明显。\n目前较纯种C3棕种人是俄罗斯的卡尔梅克蒙古人，他们是古代蒙古人西支，因为远离东亚黄种人基地中国，所以基本没有和中国黄种人混血，其蒙古C3单倍群高达70%，保留了较原始蒙古人的样貌， 和成吉思汗长相也接近。蒙古人不光脸大，整个头都大，这是C单倍群基因下的主体特征\n\n棕种人迁徙路线图\n\n\n\n物种竞争不仅来自异种的竞争，也来自同种，好比是同行业，同类产品的竞争，因为古人类生存方式相同，竞争也必然激烈，新物种的出现必然导致旧物种受到冲击，好比手机更新换代一样。一个物种生存如何，不在于更聪明或更强大，在于是否适应变换环境，就像恐龙，猛犸象都绝了，古代人类密度小，是由于采集狩猎原始生产方式决定的，在生产力提高之前多大面积只能养活多少人口有上限，所以不能同时容纳另一种人类生存。现代人进入除南极以外的世界各地，只要现代人进入的地方，其它古人类就无立足之地。\n\nF中东部落\n\nF中东部落——G高加索集团、H印度蒙达集团和IJK集团\n\n棕种人和矮黑人一样，也没能笑到最后，像矮黑人被棕种人驱逐一样，棕种人也重蹈了矮黑人的命运。大约4万年前，他们在非洲的F单倍群也走出非洲，这是人类第三次走出非洲，也是影响最大的一次。F单倍群是现代人中数量占压倒性的类型，是今日中东、欧洲、亚洲大部分民族的祖先，大概全世界80%以上的人都是这个变异点的后代。\n\n科学家推测F单倍群集团有大眼睛、双眼皮、粗眉骨、颧骨明显、椭圆脸、棕皮肤、棕色波浪发、棕眼珠等外貌特征。\n\n中东部落F进入亚洲的路线和老亚洲人C、D不同，他们没有走海岸线，而是走陆路进入中东，途径高加索山脉，南下进入印度直至斯里兰卡岛，这一路都有人定居下来，由于地理分割形成以下几大单倍群集团：\n斯里兰卡混血F单倍群\n进入斯里兰卡F人群和本地棕种人混血，形成今天斯里兰卡东南部低洼地带的维达人，他们身上保留这较古老原始F单倍群。今天维达人依然过着原始社会的生活，男人们只在腰间悬一根腰带，女人们只用布片盖住肚脐至膝盖的区域，他们现存数量比大熊猫还要稀少，据统计目前他们只剩下800人左右。\n\nH单倍群\n留在印度大陆F单倍群体变异为H单倍群体，他们也和当地棕种人大量混血，目前H单倍群占印度人总体比率不超过20%，纯种H单倍群民族已经找不到了，所以对于H单倍群最初是什么样子，无法判断。H单倍群最高频种族是印度蒙达人，过去他们被划为棕种人，是印度第三大种群，人口多达900万。蒙达人曾经广泛分布印度各地，但由于受到后来的达罗毗荼人和雅利安人排挤，现居住在印度中部和东部深山密林之中，该地区山脉连绵，丛林密集，土地贫瘠，远离印度文明中心。\n\nG单倍群\n留在高加索山脉F单倍群演化出G单倍群，如今G单倍群体主要分布在高加索山脉地区，所以又叫高加索集团，和H单倍群一样，他们由于和后来白人大量混血，纯种G单倍群同样也找不到了，含G单倍群比例较高的高加索山脉的亚美尼亚民族，所占比率也只达到20%，并不能构成体内的主体基因。不过含G单倍群较多的高加索人外貌还是明显和其它地区不同，他们体毛更加浓密、鼻梁更高、鹰钩鼻的特征也更加明显。这些很可能是G单倍群体的原始外貌特征。\n\nIJK集团\n留在中东西部沿海的F单倍群 后来成为黄白人种的祖先，我们称其为IJK集团，该集团人群分出IJ、K两支。看下方分解。\nIJ集团+K欧亚部落\n大约4万到3.5万年前，IJK集团的一支向东进入伊朗阿富汗高原并在此演化出K单倍群集团，他们后代遍布欧亚，所以我们暂且称他们为欧亚部落；而留在原地(中东西部沿海)的IJK集团则演变成IJ集团。\nJ单倍群体–地中海基因\nIJ集团后来分为两支，一支进入地中海沿岸演化出J单倍群体，他们成为整个西亚和北非及地中海沿岸地区主要的单倍群类型，是地中海人种最主要的父系基因来源，所以又被称为地中海基因。\n\n过去地中海人种被划为白种人两大亚种之一，对比白种人另一大亚种“北欧白人”的显白肤色，他们肤色暗白，有些甚至比黄种人还黑，所以又叫做暗白人种，此外他们身材也较北欧白人矮小，高鼻深目特征更加明显，并有大胡子、鹰钩鼻等特征。他们也不是金发碧眼，其头发和眼珠都呈棕褐色\n\n\n因从地理位置上看，地中海人种离黑人较近，所以过去认为他们样貌是北欧白人和黑人混血导致。不过现在从DNA检测上否定了这样的观点，他们样貌特征应为J单倍群人种主体特征。\n\n目前，中东阿拉伯族、犹太人的48%、土耳其族的25%、意大利族的20%、埃塞俄比亚族的15%、伊朗族的12%都含有J单倍群。\n含J单倍群较多的人种被称为典型地中海人种，集中在地中海沿岸地区。而原本高加索山地G单倍群后来也被外来J单倍群大量混血所以也被划为地中海人种，不过因为体内G单倍群基因的缘故和纯种J单倍群还有较大差别，所以一般又将地中海人种分为两大类\n\n\nJ单倍群为主体的典型地中海亚人种\n\n\n含有一定G单倍群的高加索亚人种\n\n\n地中海高加索亚人种\n\n\n\n\nI克罗马农人种\nIJ集团另一支进入伊朗高原和小亚细亚演化出I单倍群，如今伊朗族的18%、土耳其族的15%、亚美尼亚的8%人群的父系染色体标示都为I。不过含有I单倍群最多的地方不是在他们老家西亚，而是在欧洲。约3万5千多年前，I单倍群体开始分成两支从高加索和小亚细亚两地北上进入尼安德特人的大本营欧洲，他们是最早进入欧洲的现代人，也就是考古发现欧洲最早的现代智人——克罗马农人。\n\n克罗马农人因最早发现于法国的克罗马农山洞而得名，他们是冰河世纪结束后，全新世到来前这阶段最早被发现的完整人类化石。全新世也就是我们目前所处最年轻的地质年代，它开始于距今1.1万年前后，最近一次亚冰期结束、以气候转暖为标志，因此又称为冰后期。\n\n从欧洲克罗马农人的遗骨可以看出I单倍群的原始特征，这群人身材高大魁梧，大多男性平均身高达1.82米，体格强壮，以狩猎为主要食物来源，连曾经欧洲霸主尼安德特人被他们成群猎杀捕食，到3万年前这批人已经到达欧洲最西端的大西洋边，并彻底导致尼安德特人的灭绝。\n\nI单倍群人种是上古欧洲分布最广的种族，不过也不能将他们完全就等于欧洲克罗马农人，因为欧洲克罗马农人还包括在1.1万年全新世到来之前，进入欧洲所有现代人种。继I单倍群进入欧洲后，稍晚一点进入欧洲的有地中海J单倍群体，他们主要分布在南欧希腊和意大利半岛，如今南欧地区人们多留有他们的单倍群基因。\n在欧洲的科罗马农人\n到目前为止，智人已经遍布除南极以外的世界各大洲，在已发现各地区智人遗址中，以欧洲地区最多、最为丰富，这可能是因为欧洲比较湿润，不像中东和非洲那么干旱，有较丰富的采集和狩猎资源，当然这也和欧洲考古工作更早、技术更发达有关。目前在欧洲发现著名现代智人遗址包括：\n\n\n距今3.4万～2.9万年的奥瑞纳文化，遗址出土人类最早乐器——骨笛，并出现人类最早的艺术作品——洞穴壁画、岩画和陶制雕像等。\n\n\n距今2.1万～1.8万年的梭鲁特文化，以高超的压制石器技术著称，达到了旧石器时代石器制作技术的顶峰，骨器制作的手工艺也非常突出，大量骨制的鱼叉、矛头、针等被发现。\n\n\n距今1.7万～1.15 万年的马格德林文化，这时期原始艺术作品被誉为是美术史上最早的惊世的杰作，其中最著名的当属法国拉斯科洞窟壁画（被誉为“史前卢浮宫”）和西班牙的阿尔塔米拉洞窟壁画（被誉为“史前西斯廷教堂”）。\n\n法国拉斯科洞窟壁画距今已有15000年左右，它由一条长长的、宽狭不等的通道组成，其中有一个外形不规则的圆厅最为壮观，洞顶画有数十头大型动物形象，包括野马、野牛、鹿等，图像长度大多在2米到3米，最长的约5米以上，被誉为“史前卢浮宫”。\n\n\n\n\n雕塑艺术成就\n小型雕塑艺术上克罗马农人同样取得巨大的成就，雕像以小型动物雕刻为主，也有一些圆雕和浮雕的女裸体雕像，女裸体雕像最具有代表性的就是奥地利出土的“原始的维纳斯”，雕像极大夸张突出女神的乳房、臀部、孕肚等女性特征形象，而脸部和手脚几乎被忽略，是这时期女裸体雕像的代表特征，一般认为这些雕像和的巫术有关，体现出晚期克罗马农人对女性和生殖崇拜思想。\n\n原始的维纳斯\n\n\n创造这些灿烂的上古石器文化的是以I单倍群为主体的克罗马农人，可以说上古欧洲克罗马农人遗址是已发现旧石器时代晚期文化最杰出的代表，所以上世纪欧洲的主流学者一直声称现代欧洲人就是由克罗马农人演化而来的；\n巴斯克人是克罗马农人直接后裔？\n\n后来随着语言学的研究，欧洲主流说法又变成：就像克罗马农人淘汰尼安德特人一样，称霸欧洲的克罗马农人也被后来进入欧洲的印欧人所淘汰，他们中男性大都遭到杀害，女性则成为了新征服者的配偶，现居住在西班牙比利牛斯山脉不讲印欧语的巴斯克人(巴斯克人是西班牙足球重要力量)是他们仅存的直系后裔。 但Y染色体检测发现这种说法并不正确。\n\n巴斯克人语法复杂异常，外族人绝难掌握，传说魔鬼迁居巴斯克人居住区，可是住了7年之后又不得不搬走了，因为他无法与巴斯克人沟通！7年里，魔鬼只学会了两个巴斯克语单词：“是”和“不是”。 巴斯克因此被认为是“上帝的语言”，因为只有上帝才能听得懂。\n巴斯克人在欧洲历史可以追溯到旧石器时代，目前已经发现了上万年前的巴斯克人骨骸，在全世界各个民族中，巴斯克人可谓真正意义上的“钉子户”，他们上万年蜗居在西班牙和法国交界的比利牛斯山脉中，不愿与外界沟通，目前有70多万巴斯克人居住在西班牙，另有约12万居住在法国，他们语言极其独特。是目前西欧惟一不属于印欧语系的语言，而且也不属于世界上任何语系，语法复杂异常，外族人难以掌握，很多学者认为巴斯克语就是上古欧洲的克罗马农人的语言，并因此断定印欧人在进入欧洲后，从东欧开始自东而西横扫I单倍群的克罗马农人，只剩下少数躲进了土地贫瘠的比利牛斯山脉成为巴斯克人。\n巴斯克人身上基本没有最早的克罗马农人的I单倍群类型，他们的单倍群类型基本都是印欧人西支R1b，其比率甚至高达到90%以上，可以算得上是最纯种的印欧R1b单倍群人群，但究竟是什么原因，导致了同为R单倍群巴斯克人语言和周边印欧民族语言如此不同，巴斯克人为何不讲R单倍群体的语言印欧语，而讲一种不属于世界任何语系的语言。目前对此主要有以下两种猜测。\n第一种猜测认为：巴斯克语就是最早克罗马农人I单倍群集团的语言，这种看法认为印欧人西支R1b是分批进入欧洲的，而巴斯克人就是最早进入欧洲的一支，由于他们进入欧洲时人口很少，所以被当地土著克罗马农人同化，不再说印欧语。后来印欧人主体进入欧洲，征服了克罗马农人，但巴斯克人因在偏僻的山区没被印欧人同化，导致他们和印欧人语言的不同。\n第二种猜测认为：巴斯克语是印欧人西支R1b最早的语言，而印欧语最早只是印欧人东支R1a的语言，R1a才是真正印欧人，西支印欧人R1b其实就是被印欧化的巴斯克人。\n第一种可能性要大得多，因为少数巴斯克人被多数克罗马农人同化，要比多数R1b被少数R1a同化要容易得多。如今除巴斯克人，英国和爱尔兰的凯尔特人也是R1b占绝对优势，红发绿眼是凯尔特人常见特征，在R1b占优势的西欧地区也是红发高发区，所以红发绿眼很可能R1b单倍群特有基因特征，金发对比黑发是隐性基因，而红发对比金发又是隐性基因，作为隐性基因中的隐性基因导致现实中红发绿眼如同大熊猫一样的稀少\n克罗马农人被吸收\nI单倍群克罗马农人并没有灭绝，目前很多欧洲人都属于克罗马农人I单倍群，不过现在完全纯种I单倍群克罗马农人已经找不到了，I单倍群在欧洲比率不是很高，一般不超过20%，但是在北欧、巴尔干半岛地区所占比率较高，达40%左右，其中巴尔干半岛地区克罗地亚人I单倍群高达50%以上，尤其是波黑共和国的克罗地亚人中I的比率更是高达73.3%，算得上是I单倍群克罗马农人最直系的后代。其它如冰岛的37%、苏格兰的20%、挪威族的30%、德意志族的25%、西班牙族的12%、意大利族的15%、俄罗斯族的18%都为克罗马农人I单倍群类型。可以说大部分克罗马农人是被欧洲人所同化，改用印欧语，而且由于和欧洲人长期混血，已经基本变成白人的样貌。\n波黑共和国的克罗地亚人中I的比率更是高达73.3%，算得上是I单倍群克罗马农人最直系的后代，从出土遗骸上看，克罗马农人身材高大臃肿，他们一些后代多少继承这个特征。（此处欠一张克罗地亚大只妹的picture，原有一张被鉴黄服务给禁止访问了，大家搜克罗地亚女总统科琳达·格拉巴尔-基塔罗维奇也能管中窥豹一番）\n欧洲人也有不少黑人基因\n非洲黑人单倍群E进入欧洲时间似乎比J更早，他们主要集中在南欧、意大利南部、西班牙、希腊这些地方，从如今许多欧洲人中多少都带一点黑人单倍群类型可以看出这点。二战时期，黑人和犹太人一样受到希特勒迫害，而如今从希特勒身上单倍群检查发现他的父系单倍群标示为E，也就是说希特勒最早的远祖父就是黑人。因为一直和白人女子通婚，而成为现在这样貌。\n\n现代人在走出非洲时曾经和尼安德特人发生过混血，而现代人既然起源于非洲，在形成之初也可能和非洲直立人发生混血，从基因角度上讲，你也可以认为这是古人类是“融入”到新人类里，不过这其中比率相当稀少，就物种角度来说直立人和尼安德特人这两个物种确实是灭绝了。就像我们说华南虎灭绝，不代表他们基因不在其他老虎身上存在。\n可以肯定的是现代人并没有和东亚直立人混血，因为东亚的直立猿人（元谋人）在大约170万年前就出现了，而现代人走出非洲的时间最早也在15万年到8万年前，这中间分化时间非常长，足够产生“生殖隔离”。到东亚时，现代人直立人外貌差别相当大了，语言和血型也不同，就猿人那猩猩一样长相，就算现代人性欲再难以满足，能想到和猿人发生性关系，也只有极少数超重口味的，而且就算能现代人真和东亚直立猿人能杂交有后代，也基本很难生存下来。比如同样狮子，科学家让印度狮和非洲狮杂交的后代连行走都很困难。\n\n欧洲人长相差别\n现代欧洲人主体由（东）斯拉夫人，（北）日耳曼人，（南）拉丁人，（西）凯尔特人，长相差别较大。身材高大、高鼻深目、皮肤白皙的欧洲人印象主要来自于日耳曼人，金发深蓝眼也是其常见的特征。皮肤虽白，但脸上雀斑也多。\n拉丁人主要在法国，意大利，两牙，罗马尼亚等国，拉丁人皮肤黑多了，一般都是黑头发黑眼珠，个头也不高，跟亚洲的阿拉伯人有些像。斯拉夫人身高上看和日耳曼人相似，因为受过蒙古人统治，有些皮肤呈黄褐色，脸庞也具有黄种人特征。\n凯尔特人被挤压主要退守英伦三道，主体在爱尔兰，最显著的特点是眼睛是天蓝色+红发。\n芬兰人比较特别，祖先是黄种人迁移到了北欧，下面的N单倍群黄种人有介绍，和周围的日耳曼和斯拉夫人混血，形成现在的芬兰人，既有北欧人双眼皮大眼睛，皮肤白的特点，又有东方柔和的面容轮廓，可能比较讨好中国人的审美观。\nK欧亚部落\n在伊朗高原演化出的K单倍群是继F单倍群后的又一个伟大的演化，K单倍群是F单倍群下的最大分支，全世界基本除西亚、非洲以外，大部分都是K单倍群的后裔，如我们汉族中，96%的人都是K类型下的分支。\nK单倍群在伊朗高原繁衍一段时间后，分化出LT集团和MNOPS集团两支，LT集团先行一步离开伊朗高原，兵分两路，一支向东进入印度，另一支向西进入非洲。\nLT集团——L达罗毗荼集团和T埃塞俄比亚集团\n印度L单倍群\n进入印度K单倍群演化出印度L单倍群，事实证明，K单倍群分支L就是比较强悍，虽然是后来者，但是L单倍群还是成为前几批进入印度的中东部落后裔（F、H、J单倍群）的领袖，他们一起征服了当地最早的土著矮黑人和棕种人，并且抢了他们的女人作配偶，L、F、H、J单倍群与当地矮棕黑人种母系不断混血，最后形成了以达罗毗荼人为代表的南亚人种，其中L单倍群占主导地位。\n达罗毗荼人又叫德拉维达人，目前主要分布在印度南部、斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦，占印度全部人口的21.6%，他们也我们常见的印度黑人，过去一般把他们划为棕色人种，但是他们占主导地位单倍群还是F中东部落下属类型（F、L、H、J），应该独立列为一个人种。\n\n\n过去达罗毗荼人皮肤应该比现在白，但是后来由于白种雅利安人南下，许多白种人特征较多的达罗毗荼人都被雅利安人同化了，直到今天，在巴基斯坦境内还生活着属于白色人种的达罗毗荼人分支——布拉灰人\n\n\n\n达罗毗荼人种父系单倍群比率：\n\nL——印度L单倍群占达罗毗荼人种30%、印欧语系的印度人26%\nF——斯里兰卡维达F单倍群占达罗毗荼人诸民族的13%\nH——印度蒙达H单倍群占达罗毗荼人种18%\nJ——地中海J单倍群占达罗毗图诸民族的12%\nC、D——矮黑人和棕种人大多成为达罗毗荼人母系祖先，在达罗毗荼人父系中含量较少，但在个别达罗毗荼语系民族中比例达到20%。\n\nT埃塞俄比亚集团\n进入非洲的K单倍群演化出埃塞俄比亚T单倍群，目前T单倍群体主要分布在埃及和东非埃塞俄比亚。从外貌上看，就会发现埃塞俄比亚黑人和其它地区黑人差别很大，一般将他们单独划为高原黑人种。从外貌上看他们应该属于最俊美的黑人了，双眼皮、大眼睛、五官立体感强，这和他们体内含有T单倍群基因，并大量混血阿拉伯人有关。目前这一种族主要分布于东非埃塞俄比亚高原及附近索马里等地区，人口约几千万，是东非黑人的主体。\n\nMNOPS集团——S巴布亚新几内亚高地人、M伊里安查亚新几内亚人、ON黄色人种、P中亚部落\nLT集团从K欧亚部落分离出后，留在伊朗高原印欧人K单倍群在3.5万年分化&gt;\n一支向北进入中亚里海附近，形成P单倍群的中亚部落;\n一支后来演化成黄种人祖先NO。\n另有两支S、M沿着棕色人种的路线，从马来半岛出发，分批进入苏门答腊岛和婆罗洲，挺近大洋洲，并一度大举入侵澳大利亚，但最终不敌澳洲棕种土著C而被融合。\nSM\nS、M虽然没能成功征服澳洲，不过他们却成功进入大洋洲最大的岛屿、世界第二大岛新几内亚岛。新几内亚岛以东经141°为界线，东西两端分为巴布亚新几内亚国和印度尼西亚伊里安查亚省，而S和M则分别形成巴布亚新几内亚国和印尼伊里安查亚省的土著居民。\n\n如今S单倍群后代广泛分布在大洋州和马来群岛：巴布亚新几内亚的59%，苏门答腊岛的15%、婆罗洲的16%、伊里安查亚新几内亚5%都为S单倍群。\n而M单倍群后代则主要居中在新几内亚岛，如今伊里安查亚新几内亚的70%、巴布亚新几内亚的34%都为M单倍群。\n\n新几内亚岛上的S、M单倍群体由于长期混血棕种人，现已经具备有明显棕种人特征，过去也将他们划为棕色人种，但是如果要和C单倍群棕色人种区别还是很明显。\n\n父系单倍群为S、M的人群脸更狭长、鼻子更高、有鹰钩鼻、皮肤相对较白，这都和周边棕色人种明显不同。对比如下两图，是不是头发是否卷也是一种特征？\n\n\nS、M后代的新几内亚人\n\n\n\nC单倍群棕色人种\n\n\n黄色人种\n黄种人祖先NO从伊朗高原向东南进入印度北部、并通过东南亚进入中国，最后成为东亚、东南亚最后的霸主。\n\n为什么古人类全都喜欢绕道印度、东南亚进入中国，而不直接近道走直线经西亚过新疆直到中原呢？这是因为中原地区和西亚之间隔着大面积沙漠戈壁和草原，原始人只靠打猎和采集野果，是很难通过此地的。只有等到发明畜牧业，尤其是成功驯化马和骆驼后此路才变得畅通。所以大规模的原始部落进入中国途径印度、东南亚是必然的\n\nNO黄种人\n\nN北亚黄种人人和O东亚与东南亚黄种人\n\nNO黄种人在东南亚分化为南北两支，南支演化出O单倍群体，并成为后来东亚与东南亚黄种人的主体类型。而北支先行一步进入东亚，目前达斡尔族2.6%、鄂温克族3.82%、赫哲族2.2%、回族2.9%，华北汉族2.3%，华南汉族2.5%，越南人3.1%，外蒙古人0.7%、布依族5.7%、日本人2.1%、韩国人2.3%、彝族人2.3%都为NO单倍群类型。\nN单倍群黄种人\n向北发展的NO最终演化出N单倍群黄种人，他们大致在距今2~1.5万前从东亚出发，进入叶尼塞河和阿尔泰山区域，并分化为东西两支。\n一支向西北迁移至乌拉尔山两侧到北冰洋沿岸形成了芬兰-乌拉尔语系的主体民族，在历史上入侵欧洲游牧民族多属于这支黄种N单倍群集团（这和入侵中国地区游牧集团主要是棕种C单倍群集团不同）\n\n从今天N单倍群在东欧和北欧广泛存在就可看出来，目前芬兰人65%、爱沙尼亚55%，立陶宛、拉托维亚等人群中50%，俄罗斯北部35%，中部20%，南部10%，挪威和瑞典人的5-10%都为N单倍群类型。这些在欧洲的N单倍群黄种人因为长期和白人混血，样貌已经和白人相差不大\n\n而另一支N单倍群则迁移到西伯利亚北部和东部地区，在如今西伯利亚北部地区，N单倍群占绝对的优势，如雅库特人N3占92.2%，北部埃文人中，N3占90.9%。而在西伯利亚南部地区，北亚黄种单倍群N则和南部棕种C单倍群的通古斯民族发生混血，目前N南部西伯利亚通古斯人比例一般在20—50%之间，中国属于通古斯语系的满族也有15%黄种N单倍群的血统。\nN单倍群最东方的一支就是和印第安人混血而成的爱斯基摩人。由于N单倍群人群主要生活在地球最北方，所以N单倍群基因又被称为极北基因。N 单倍群黄种人在欧洲的基地，芬兰和爱沙尼亚。严重白化的黄种人代表——芬兰人，在外貌上已经和白人很难区别呢，但是头颅还是明显黄种人类型。\n\n芬兰人\n\n\n北亚N单倍群黄种人代表——西伯利亚北部的雅库特人，他们N比率高达92.2%\n\n雅库特人\n\n\nO单倍群黄种人\n在东南亚黄种人南支O，在大约两万年前进入中国，被称为“新亚洲人”，他们与亚洲上任霸主棕种人爆发了激烈的领地争端，最终，“新亚洲人”O取得了胜利，棕色人种被一路向北驱逐，最后逃亡到蒙古高原和东北亚地区，不过他们的女性却大部分留下来和“新亚洲人”O混血融合成了现在东亚—东南亚黄种人。\n\n据统计今日中国人来自棕种的母系成分大致占60%的成分，越往北汉人就吸收越多棕种人母系血统，在个别地区棕色人种的母系达到80%以上。\n\n\n从单倍群类型可以看出，亚洲黄种人基本的父系祖先和小部分母系祖先是来自于伊朗高原单倍群K的欧亚人，而大部分母系祖先则是更早到达亚洲的老亚洲人，所以亚洲黄种人实际上就是第三批走出非洲的欧亚人和前两批出非洲的老亚洲人女性的混血儿。\n\n黄种人扩张过程主要兵分三路，并形成现代黄种人O1、O2、O3三种不同单倍群。\n南岛支O1\n第一路O1黄种人我们称之为南岛支，这支黄种人擅长航海，他们从东南亚马来半岛出发，扩张到印度洋到太平洋半岛和岛屿上，向北他们抵达台湾，今日台湾高山族O1单倍群成分高达97%，是最纯种O1民族；向西他们一直抵达到非洲的马达加斯加岛，建立非洲唯一黄种人国家马达加斯加，向东南他们占领马来群岛(马来西亚、印尼、菲律宾等地)，并一路扩张到大洋洲三大群岛。\n\n南岛支主要分布图\n\n\n\n马达加斯加黄种人\n\n\n在浩瀚的太平洋上，星星点点散布着许许多多的岛屿，它们被分成三大岛群，即密克罗尼西亚、美拉尼西亚和波利尼西亚。O1黄种人成功入驻三大群岛，并与当地棕种土著混血，形成密克罗尼西亚、美拉尼西亚和波利尼西亚三大人种，其中又以波利尼西亚人种数量最多。\n\n波利尼西亚意思是“多岛群岛”，它北起夏威夷，南至新西兰，东至复活节岛，是太平洋三大群岛中范围最大的群岛。波利尼西亚人种包括毛利人、汤加人、夏威夷人、复活节岛人等10多个支系，共有90多万人，可能是由于渡海迁移，只有最强壮的人活了下来的原因，这些波利尼西亚人是世界最高大强壮种族之一，其种毛利人男性平均身高180CM，在过去是著名食人族。\n虽然波利尼西亚人种为棕黄混血人种，但是在部分地区O1的成分占绝对优势，其中汤加岛上的汤加人黄种O1单倍群高达82%，汤加在过去是一个以肥胖为美的国家，其前国王体重达到世界吉尼斯纪录，是世界上体重最重的君主。\n\n除称霸印度洋和太平洋外，O1黄种人还沿东部海岸线北上中国，并成为中国人的第二大单倍类型。\n\n虽然在中国北方黄河流域的山东、河北地区的汉族人中，O1的比例都小于5%，但是在长江以南O1占父系比率平均12%左右，尤其以江苏南部和浙江地区比例最高，超过20%以上，而这还只是父系祖先的比率，在母系祖先中比率更高，可以说O1成分不同是导致南北方汉人外貌不同一重大原因\n\n除汉族外，亚洲北部贝加尔湖畔的布里亚特人O1的比例高达34%，外蒙、满族、朝鲜、日本、堪察加人等民族也有部分O1类型，但一般比例不超过10%，都不是主体单倍群类型。\n\n泰柬支O2\n第二路黄种人O2可称为泰柬支，目前O2单倍群比例在中印半岛中部的泰国和柬埔寨最高，其中柬埔寨高棉族O2比率高达90%以上，泰国O2比例也高达55%，周边国家按离泰柬两国的远近相应递减，由此大致可以推测O2变异最初出现在泰柬两地，并以此为根据地，向四方扩散开来。\n\n混血较少的O1，O2人种\n\n\n在东南亚O2单倍群体与来自马来半岛和马来群岛O1融合，一起征服原本在东南亚矮黑人和棕种人，并和棕黑人种的女性混血形成今日东南亚地区的马来人种，由于东南亚丛林中矮黑人较多，所以马来人种外貌有较多矮黑人的特征。\n\n混血后的马来人种\n\n\n除称霸中南半岛外，O2单倍群体还沿东南亚海岸北上中国，如今O2单倍群在中国东南沿海广泛分布、中国少数民族人口最多的壮族就有36%属于O2单倍群，与广西相邻的广东O2单倍群也达到15%。与O1一样，O2在母系成分中比率更高，广东、广西部分地区甚至可以达到85%。目前O2是中国汉族第三大单倍群类型，不过除两广外，其它地区比例都不高\n\n这也造成广东汉人（客家人除外）外貌及语言和汉族其它地区都大为不同，北方人常说广东人一副马来人的长相原因就在于其混血较多O1、O2种群基因。\n\n除中国南方外，O2人群最北直达东北亚地区融入当地通古斯民族，并经朝鲜直达日本，如今满族人身上就有十分之一O2基因，朝鲜和日本O2比例甚至高达三分之一以上，比来自中国华夏族O3单倍群类型还多。可以说日本人、朝鲜人和东南亚人血缘关系更近，和中国血缘关系反而更远些。\n\n但是由于来自内陆中国华夏族O3的扩张，O2被分割成南北两支，因为长期隔离，形成南支以东南亚人主体为O2a和北支以日韩人为主体为O2b两种不同类型。\n\n华夏支O3\n第三路黄种人O3最初在缅甸生存了很长一段时间，后来也北上进入中国，不过他们和O1、O2沿海北上不同，走的是陆路。这条路可比沿海路线难走，最早的人类部落，大多只能沿海迁徙，这是因为内陆地区固体盐矿不如海盐丰富，缺乏人类的生存繁殖必要的盐和碘，尤其是中国云贵一代，盐巴自古紧俏，由于缺碘导致大脖子病很普遍，所以能走陆路说明O3已经具备较发达生产力。\nO3群体表现出强大的战斗力，早先进入中国的黄种基因NO、N、O1、O2基本全都融入O3群体中，他们成为汉藏语族黄种人的祖先，尤其在汉族血统中更占主导地位，所以又把第三路黄种人称为华夏支。\n\nO3-M134和O3—M122是今日中华民族中体内含量最多的，O3-M134是O3—M122下的亚型，\n南方O1虽高，但是这是上一级的，只能和O3对比，O3—M122也是O3-M134上一级，\n在O3-M134同级成员中，没有任何Y染色体能比O3-M134还高，而且O3-M134更是为汉藏民族所特有，可以说是华夏民族一大标志。\n\n\n目前O3大致占汉族单倍群的55-65%，其中华北地区、黑龙江、陕西、客家人比例较高，大致在65%-75%，尤其是福建客家人更是O3比率最高的群体；而江浙地区和闽粤除客家人以外人群O3比例较低，大致在50-55%。\n如今南北汉族在父系Y染色体单倍群上相似度高达90%，也就是说南北方汉族父系祖先都是同源的。南北汉族的差异主要体现在mtDNA上，也就是母系祖先来源上。\n\n中国人母系来源分析\n据统计今日中国人来自棕种的母系成分大致占60%的成分，越往北汉人就吸收越多棕种人母系血统，在个别地区棕色人种的母系达到80%以上。通过母系mtDNA检测结果得出，目前参与DNA验证人群是非常多的，可以肯定东亚黄种人母系有大量来自原老亚洲人的成分，老亚洲女性大多留下来的真实情况是黄种人打跑了老亚洲人的男人，抢走了他们的女人。\n黄种人O原本母系来源就较复杂，最初主要为N系下属各支，其原配具体可能B、F*,F1a，R9等，进入亚洲棕种人区域时，有大量的M加入进来，M被认为是棕种人的女人，如今M东亚地区最主要的母系来源。纯种的百越人，纯种的巴蜀人的确找不到，但是在汉人单倍群里还留有他们的基因。\n人类的历史证明，一个社会集团，其文化的进步往往取决于它是否有机会吸取邻近社会集团的经验。一个社会集团所获得的种种发现可以传给其他社会集团；彼此之间的交流愈多样化，相互学习的机会也就愈多。大体上，文化最原始的部落也就是那些长期与世隔绝的部落，因而，它们不能从邻近部落所取得的文化成就中获得好处。换句话说，如果其他地理因素相同，那么人类取得进步的关键就在于各民族之间的可接近性。最有机会与其他民族相互影响的那些民族，最有可能得到突飞猛进的发展。\n\n上古时期，随着华夏族的扩张，很多周别民族都融入华夏族，今日有些姓氏如：黄、徐、马、谭、郝、江等就是源自东夷族，汉族是在汉朝才形成的，春秋时期的楚国长期和南蛮混血，秦国和戎狄混血现在都是普遍的观点。\n古代战争中，男人往往被杀死，女人却被往往当作战利品留下来，所以导致世界上所有民族母系来源非常丰富。母系mtDNA成分也更复杂，汉族也不例外。\n越是强大民族，由于征服地区越多，母系往往越是复杂，在宠物中纯种意味着稀有，所以价钱也就越贵，但人不是拿来卖的，不以纯种论高贵，完全纯种民族都是与世隔绝的稀有民族，太纯种也意味不够强大，强大民族都有一个主体Y染色体类型，并融入其它各地区优秀种族人群\n\n从周朝开始，O3主体的中原王朝开始控制O1、O2的大本营中国南方地区，大量的O3单倍群汉族开始迁往长江以南，迁移的原因包括服兵役、逃避战乱、因罪流放、拓荒开发等，这些人基本都是男性，带家属的情况不多，所以大多娶了当地的女性，这就造成了南方汉族和北方汉族有着相同的父系祖先，却有不同的母系祖先。北方汉人的母系融入较多的棕种人类型，所以有些类似蒙古人，身材高大威猛，多国字脸和单眼皮，南方人融合大量O1、O2黄种人的血统，所以有些类似马来人，五官精致秀气，多瓜子脸和双眼皮。\n南方汉族不仅和北方汉族在母系来源上不同，南方各地区之间差异也很大，如江西的汉族和福建的汉族母系mtDNA就不同；甚至同是福建人，闽南人和客家人在母系mtDNA上也不同。这主要是因为南方多山远不如北方平原开阔，少数民族种类数量更多，各地区交流不便导致。\n汉族的单倍群发展\n虽然O3单倍群是当今汉族的主体，但是除汉族外，东亚、东南亚各地也都含有大量的O3单倍群，所以并不能说O3就能代表汉族，如果将O3单倍群细化，O3基因下O3-M122的亚型O3a5-M134仅现于汉藏民族，可以说华夏汉族重要标记，所以也有学者将O3-M122/O3-M134单倍群体称为古羌族。\n\n\n汉族的近亲羌族\n\n\n研究人士认为，大约六千年前，古羌族分为东西两支，一支向东最终形成华夏族，另一支向西形成羌族。羌人后来进入青藏高原遇到了当地生活数千年的土著矮黑人D，他们一起融合形成后来的藏族。今天，藏族的父系血统里D矮黑人与O3黄种人各占一半，离汉族最远的喜马拉雅山西南地区的藏族矮黑人的血统比例最高，而离汉族最近的四川境内的嘉绒藏族等则有最高的黄种人比例。\n\n混血D单倍群的西藏人\n\n\n\n各省Y染色体父系单倍群比值表\n\n\n华夏各地区单倍群历史变迁图\n\n蒙古种人并不是黄种人\n\n外蒙古人血统=28.7%黄种O单倍群+55%棕色人种+13%白种人+2%中东人+1.3%其它人种\n北方汉人血统=77%黄种O单倍群+6%黄种N单倍群+5%棕色人种+12%其它人种\n朝鲜族血统=75%黄种O单倍群+15%棕色人种+6%小黑人D +4%其它人种\n日本族血统=54.2%黄种O单倍群+34.7%小矮黑人+8.5%棕色人种+2.6其它人种\n\n黄种人学名叫做蒙古人种，蒙古人曾经被认为是最纯种的黄种人，这是因为19世纪的西方人种学家布卢门巴赫（Blumenbach）在划分世界各大人种时，认为单眼皮是黄种人的本质特征，而蒙古族人群中90%为单眼皮，所以他想当然认为蒙古人的相貌特征才是纯种的黄种人特征，其它黄种人相貌都是混血的产物，于是他就将黄种人学名定为蒙古人种，并成为了当今流行的说法。现在通过Y染色体的研究，让我们看看东亚各民族单倍群比率。\n\n从单倍群类型可以看出蒙古人的黄种单倍群O是最少的，蒙古人种相貌特征更接近C3棕色人种，单眼皮也是棕色人种的遗传特征，因为外蒙古族棕色人种单倍群比例高达55%，所以大部分蒙古人为单眼皮。朝鲜族单眼皮的比率也相当高同样是因为他们体内有大量棕色人种的基因。\n\n\n而黄种人的发源地东南亚则完全是双眼皮的天下，黄种人的近亲F中东部落下属各支也都是双眼皮，中国双眼皮比率南方占86%，北方占52%，整体上也是双眼皮占优势，所以再把黄色人种称为蒙古种人，并用单眼皮来判断是否为纯种黄种人明显不合适。\n\n\n将黄色人种称为蒙古人种并不合适。很多人可能会对中国人有那么多新几内亚K单倍群感到好奇，其实中国K单倍群主要是欧亚部落K下属的黄种人单倍群（NO、N*等），因为当时没有进一步化验，所以都归类到上属的k欧亚部落，\n从图中可以看出南方父系来自棕种人比北方多，但是北方棕种人母系会更多点\n纯种O3黄种人推测\n关于纯种黄种人NO最初究竟是什么样子，有学者推测其特征可能为：双眼皮、眉骨粗、颧骨细、瓜子脸、浅皮肤、深棕直发、棕色眼珠、脑容量大等，不过这也只是推测，毕竟经历数万年混血黄种人早已经不是最初的模样，目前最纯种黄种O3人群，当属云南省贡山的独龙族，他们是云南特有民族中人口最少的，现约有7000人，由于山区的与世隔绝，他们父系O3成分高达100%的，也许他们的外貌就是O3黄种人最初的模样。\n\n独龙族妹子\n\n\nP中亚部落\n亚洲黄种人征战棕种人的同时，曾经在伊朗高原和NO黄种人分离北上的“中亚部落”P于距今大约2万年发生分化，他们中的一支向东北进入西伯利亚演化出**Q单倍群**。\n西伯利亚驯鹿土著，爱斯基摩人\nQ单倍群一部分留在西伯利亚融入当地黄种人N、棕种人C中，在今天西伯利亚的驯鹿土著塞尔库普人Q高达60%以上，在靠近美洲附近，Q单倍群人群融合部分北亚黄种人N形成爱斯基摩人，如今爱斯基摩人单倍群中N占50%、Q占47%。\nQ印第安人\n不过Q单倍群最成功地方不是在西伯利亚，而是在美洲，Q单倍群下的一支Q3通过亚洲和美洲交界的白令海峡进入并扩散到整个美洲大陆成为了印第安人的祖先。\n由此可以看出印第安人并不是过去所说的是中国人北上迁移过去的，而是从中亚部落P中分离出来，但是为什么印第安人会有着黄种人的样貌呢？\n这是因为印第安人和亚洲黄种人有着共同的母系祖先棕种人，正如黄种人驱逐老亚洲棕种人父系，霸占他们的母系，美洲印第安人也同样征服先到达美洲的棕种人父系，并融合部分棕种人母系血统，棕种人母系基因无疑是显性基因，对后代外貌遗传影响更大，导致东亚黄种人和印第安人外貌上相似\n\n两者主要区别是印第安人面形宽大，肤色黄褐色，头发黑、直、硬，颧骨突出，多铲形门齿，鼻子更像白人，鼻根较高，鼻梁多呈凸形且前突，眼窝更深，身材也相对高大，其中南美的巴塔哥尼亚印第安人男性平均身高达183CM。\n\n虽然现在普遍把印第安人归类为黄种人，但是如果从遗传学角度，应该把印第安人排除出黄种人，只有NO单倍群才能称为黄色人种，印第安人应另外划为印第安人种或美洲人种更合适，也可以按照最初方法划为红色人种。（最早印第安人因常在皮肤各处涂红色颜料被划为红色人种）\n印第安人身上没有任何来自东亚—东南亚黄种O成分，父系基本都是Q和少量的C3，尤其是南美洲地区全是Q\n\n生活在地球最北端的爱斯基摩人，是N和Q的混血后代，国内著名主持人柳岩穿得少，特别“抗冻”，她经过DNA检测发现原来其先祖是古爱斯基摩人。\n\n现代东亚黄种人就算不混血，经过数万年演化也和古人不同，如果真要了解最早黄种人样貌，还是需要通过科技手段复原出土的头骨遗骸\n\nR印欧人种from P\n在P中亚部落分离出Q单倍群印第安人后，他们中的另一支向西进入南俄罗斯草原并在一万五千年前发生突变形成R单倍群，虽然R单倍群和印第安人Q单倍群同属P中亚部落为兄弟类型，但是印第安人Q反而和关系较远的黄种人NO有相似的外貌，这不仅因为印第安人和东亚人同有棕种母系祖先，另一个重要的原因是因为父系Q单倍群和黄种父系NO单倍群外貌并没有太大差别，正是R单倍群这次突变，形成了与黄种人甚至和他们兄弟印第安人完全不同的外貌。\n这些R单倍群体皮肤变得亮白、发色变浅、并形成高鼻深目、金发碧眼的外貌，曾有人认为高纬度地区容易形成这样特征，但是生活在地球最北端的N系黄种人却不是这种外貌，所以纬度样貌说并不合理。\n印度R单倍群\n金发碧眼是R单倍群体一重要特征，今日北欧是世界金发碧眼最多的地区，R单倍群后来进入印度形成今日印度主体民族印度斯坦人，但是印度斯坦人却基本没有金发，不过印度斯坦人传说中的祖先雅利安人就是金发蓝眼，这是因为金发是隐性基因，不容易遗传，所以在人种多样，混血严重的印度金发绝迹，但也能找到个别稀有纯种雅利安人的后代。\n\n\n蓝眼印度人\n\n\n\n混血后常见印度人\n\n\n不仅如此，随着全球化频繁的婚配和移民活动，白皮肤和金发碧眼的基因将会被深色发和深色皮肤的种族基因压倒，金发一族终将会成为濒危人群。\n东支R1a和西支R1b\n中亚印欧人种R单倍群后来分化成东支R1a(雅利安人)和西支R1b（西欧基因）\nR1b（西欧基因）\n其中西支R1b在1万5000年左右开始进入I单倍群欧洲克罗马农人的土地。R1b单倍群在欧洲占有重要的地位，尤其在西欧地区更是明显，所以又被叫做西欧基因，可以说欧洲西部大部分讲印欧语都是R1b后代\n\n如意大利R1a成分不到2%，而R1b却达到49%，其它如苏格兰族72.5%、西班牙族65%、德意志族的48%都为R1b单倍群。\n\n但是为何这些R1b的后代都纷纷忘记了自己的祖先语言巴斯克语，而讲起R1a的印欧语呢？\n相关研究学者认为，约在6000年前印欧人东支R1a曾入侵欧洲，并征服西支R1b，只剩下躲在比利牛斯山脉中巴斯克人，R1a以少数征服了多数，并强迫他们学习自己的语言，而他们血统则被大多数的欧洲原住民R1b所同化。\n英国和爱尔兰的凯尔特人也是R1b占绝对优势，红发绿眼是凯尔特人常见特征，在R1b占优势的西欧地区也是红发高发区，所以红发绿眼很可能R1b单倍群特有基因特征，红发是很稀有的。\nR1a单倍群-雅利安人\n他们约在6000年——4000年左右大肆扩张，不仅入侵欧洲，同时还侵入伊朗和印度。目前R1a是欧洲白人、印度斯坦人、中亚突厥人的主要单倍群类型之一。\n在欧洲R1a分布从发源地东欧开始，自东向西、自北向南减少。\n\n今天波兰56.5%、俄罗斯46%、挪威29%、冰岛22%、芬兰20%、喀山鞑靼的18%、德意志16%都为R1a单倍群类型。\n而在亚洲R1a则主要分布在中亚、中东和南亚，其中阿尔泰族的50%、吉尔吉斯族的40%、印度的印欧语系民族的40%、维吾尔族的21%、乌孜别克族的18%、波斯族的18%、土耳其族的8%都为R1a类型后代。\n\n德国希特勒执政后推崇纯种印欧人种——雅利安人，他认为斯拉夫民族（俄国、乌克兰、波兰等）是混血后的印欧人，已经沦为劣等种族，应被消灭，在二战时期希特勒共屠杀200万波兰人和500多万苏联人，现从雅利安人R1a单倍群分布看来，波兰高达56.5%，俄国也高达46%，是雅利安人成份最高的民族之一，那么是否意味着希特勒梦想消灭的他所谓的劣种斯拉夫民族就是他最崇拜的雅利安人呢？\n从希特勒的语录中我们可以了解到他所说的雅利安人应为纯种印欧人种，包括R1a和R1b两支，而并不是单指R1a人群。斯拉夫民族R1a比率虽然高，但是被N系黄种人混血严重，确实不属于纯种R系种群，希特勒种族歧视和屠杀无疑是错误，不过说斯拉夫民族是混血后的雅利安人并没错。\n印欧人R的迁徙最终形成古代欧亚大陆的人种格局，目前欧洲主体三大单倍群R1a、R1b、I分布情况如下：\n一：印欧人东支雅利安R1a单倍群占绝对优势的欧洲国家和地区，R1a东支受黄种N单倍群影响严重，说明历史上入侵欧洲游牧民族多是N单倍群为主\n\n波兰：R1a占56.5%，R1b占16.5%，I占16%、N占11%\n俄国：R1a占46%，R1b占6%，I占15.5%，N占23%\n立陶宛：R1a占38%，R1b占5%，I占13%，N占42%\n芬兰：R1a占7.5%、R1b占3.5%，I占29%，N占60%\n\n二：印欧人西支R1b单倍群占优势，或R1a、R1b含量相当欧洲国家和地区\n\n威尔士：R1b占82%，R1a占2%，I占7.5%。\n爱尔兰：R1b占79%，R1a占3%，I占13%。\n苏格兰：R1b占72.5%，R1a占8.5%，I占14%。\n英格兰：R1b占67%，R1a占4.5%，I占21%。\n法国：R1b占61%，R1a占2.5%，I占16.5%，J占7%。\n西班牙：R1b占69%，R1a占2%，I占7%，J占4%。\n荷兰：R1b占53.5%，R1a占6%，I占25.5%，J占6%，E1b1b占4.5%。\n意大利：R1b占49%，R1a占2.5%，I占6.5%，J占20%，E1b1b占11%。（意大利的南部，主要是来自中东的J，而意大利的北部R的比率高一些）\n丹麦：R1b占44.5%，R1a占12.5%，I占36%。\n德国：R1b占44.5%，R1a占16%，I占22%，J占4.5%，E1b1b占5.5%。\n挪威：R1b占28%，R1a占28%，I占37%，\n瑞典：R1b占21%。R1a占23.5%，I占44%，\n希腊：R1b占12%，R1a占12%，I占15.5%，J占27%，E1b1b占27%。（从比率看希腊人R所占比例甚至没有来自西亚的J基因和非洲黑人E基因多，所以古希腊文明并不是纯粹的R创造的，明显受到亚非两地的影响。希腊人的外貌也和欧洲人不同，他们属于欧洲人和西亚人、非洲人混血类型，颅型短宽，胡须、体毛尤其发达，其肤色较深，发色、眼色也较深，几乎没有金发碧眼的类型.）\n\n\n\n由于这是较早的图，图中一些叫法不是很妥当，阿尔泰基因就是R1a（雅利安人），过去由于阿尔泰族的50%都是R1a，所以叫阿尔泰基因\n\n北欧基因就是克罗马农人的I基因，在北欧分布比较多，不过最多还是巴尔干半岛克罗地亚人，从基因上看，北欧人是最纯种白人的说法并不正确，凯尔特人反而会纯种点\n\n\n图中将G单倍群称为突厥基因叫法错误，很多突厥人都没有G基因，G基主要是高加索民族，应叫高加索基因\n\n和中东人种混血最多的R系印欧人——伊朗人，伊朗就是“雅利安人的国家”的意思，\n三大混血R系印欧人群，看谁混血混的最好看，从左到右依次为希腊、印度、伊朗\n\n亚洲现代人类迁徙地图\n\n语系\n19世纪时，语言学界的比较学派研究了世界上近百种语言，发现有些语言的某些语音、词汇、语法规则之间有对应关系，他们把世界上的语言按相似程度分为语系、语族、语支和语种。其中我们日常所说的就是语种，相似的语种归为同支语言——语支，相似语支再归为同族语言——语族，同一语族一般和广义上的一个大民族对应，如突厥语族对应突厥民族，日耳曼语族对应日耳曼民族。而有些语族与语族之间又有些对应关系，又被归为同系语言，这样就形成了语言的谱系关系，目前学术界通过语言间的亲属关系将世界的语言大体划分为以下九大语系（也有十大、七大划分法），通过语系和Y染色单倍群的对照，我们可以发现，他们之间有着较一致的对应关系。\nY染色体虽不能对应四大人种，但是却和民族有极强的对应关系，而民族之间最重要的区别之一就是语言。**除Y染色体单倍群外，语言也是反映人类亲缘关系的一大标准，单倍群所占比率只代表血统的同化，而语言则代表政治和文化的同化。**例如中欧的匈牙利人单倍群为R1a占20.4%、R1b占20.4%、I占28.3%、Q占2.6%，从单倍群类型上看，匈牙利无疑算是相当纯种是欧洲人，当代匈牙利人外貌和体质也和周别欧洲民族类似，不过他们在语言上却完全不同。\n匈牙利人讲着和芬兰人类似的乌拉尔系语言，而不是周别欧洲民族所说的印欧语，这是因为当地居民曾经被来自东方的马扎尔人征服过（注：匈牙利的祖先不是匈奴人），马扎尔人以少数征服多数，他们的血统也被当地土著同化，但是作为统治者，他们语言却成为当地人的常用语，可以说语言比单倍群比率更能反映一个种族的胜利。\n匈牙利人单倍群为R1a占20.4%、R1b占20.4%、I占28.3%、Q占2.6%，从单倍群类型上看，匈牙利无疑算是相当纯种是欧洲人（R、I占优势），当代匈牙利人外貌和体质也和周别欧洲民族类似。\n有人称他们祖先是匈奴人，但是你看他们那有一点像亚洲人的样子，只是因为他们使用来自东方征服者的语言，从血统上看，基本都是欧洲土著\n语系分布地图\n\n印欧语系\n这是世界上最大的语系，主要使用者为R单倍群的印欧人，代表R系民族迁移和征服。印欧语系分为两大类：S类语言和K类语言，分别对应印欧人东支R1a和印欧人西支R1b\nS类语言\nS类语言人群的主体R单倍群为R1a，下属语族包括：\n1、印度语族：该语族人民统称为印度斯坦人，包括梵语、印地语、巴利语等，\n2、伊朗语族：包括波斯语、阿富汗语等，该语族和印度语族为近亲语言，伊朗人和印度人也都称自己祖先为雅利安人，说明他们之间有较大亲缘关系。\n3、斯拉夫语族：对应斯拉夫民族，共分为东部、西部、南部三大语支：东部语支包括俄语、乌克兰语、白俄罗斯语，对应东斯拉夫民族；西部语支包括捷克语、斯洛伐克语、波兰语、卢萨提亚语，对应西斯拉夫民族；南部语支包括保加利亚语、马其顿语、塞尔维亚-克罗地亚语和斯洛文尼亚语，对应南斯拉夫民族。\n4、波罗的海语族：主要分布在原苏联的波罗的海沿岸，原先有三种语言，拉脱维亚语，立陶宛语和古普鲁士语，但后来古普鲁士被德意志人征服，古普鲁士语随之消亡。波罗的海语族和斯拉夫语族有较大的亲缘关系，由于波罗的海民族都含有较多黄种N单倍群，所以其语言也受到N单倍群乌拉尔语系的较大影响。\n5、其它独立语族：包括巴尔干半岛阿尔巴尼亚语族和高加索山脉亚美尼亚语族等。\nK类语言\nK类语言人群的**主体R单倍群为R1b**，或R1b与R1a大体相当，下属语族包括：\n1、日耳曼语族：包括英语、德语、荷兰语、北欧各主要语言，使用者被称为日耳曼民族，对应单倍群为R1b下的U106。\n2、拉丁语族：又称为罗曼语族或罗马语族，包括法语、意大利语、西班牙语、葡萄牙语和罗马尼亚语，这些国家使用语言都是从古罗马的拉丁语演化而来，罗马拉丁语相当于汉语文言文，现今拉丁语国家语言相当于汉语方言白话文。拉丁语国家在过去大多属于西罗马帝国的领土，西罗马帝国被日耳曼蛮族灭亡后，入侵西罗马境内的日耳曼蛮族，其单倍群类型、语言和文化都被拉丁罗马化，今日拉丁人无论是外貌，语言、还是性格习俗都和日耳曼民族大为不同，拉丁人对应单倍群类型多为罗马时代的R1b-u152和R1b-M269，和日耳曼民族的R1b-u106不一样，其信仰也多为罗马天主教，而日耳曼语族多信仰新教。在性格方面拉丁人热情奔放，注重生活，多艺术家，擅长生产各类奢侈品，法国菜和意大利菜等拉丁菜系都世界享有盛名，而日耳曼人性格严谨，工作认真，多科学家和哲学家，擅长机械制造，英国菜和德国菜都以难吃出名。\n3、希腊语族：目前主要在希腊和塞普路斯两地使用。\n4、凯尔特语族：使用者称凯尔特人，目前主要分布在苏格兰、爱尔兰、威尔士地区。对应的单倍群类型是R1b-L21。\n\n拉丁人大多混血比较严重，他们身材比日耳曼矮小，金发碧眼很少见，多信仰天主教，爱喝红酒。性格热情、奔放、浪漫（有时有点散漫）、追求艺术、生活和爱情，讲究生活第一，工作第二。文艺复兴兴起源于拉丁国家意大利，达芬奇、毕加索等著名艺术大家都是拉丁人。世界上的生活奢侈品牌如服装、鞋包、香水、豪华轿车等主要来自拉丁国家（法国、意大利、西班牙）。法国饮食和意大利饮食在世界享有盛名，拉丁人喜欢跳更奔放更有野性的拉丁舞和听歌剧（三大男高音歌手都是来自拉丁国家）。\n日尔曼人身材更高大，多金发碧眼，皮肤更白，日耳曼人性格严谨，工作认真，多科学家和哲学家，擅长机械制造，英国菜和德国菜都以难吃出名，而代表美国饮食的更是只有缺乏营养的快餐。日尔曼人喜欢跳有基本套路的国际标准舞（起源于英国）和听交响乐。\n汉藏语系\n这个不用说，就是我们中国人的主体语系，也是世界上的第二大语系，代表单倍群类型是黄种人的O3，下属语族包括：\n\n\n汉语族：对应汉语各类方言，共分北方话（简称：北语，代表普通话）、广东话（简称：粤语）、江浙话（简称：吴语）、福建话（简称：闽语）、湖南话（简称：湘语）、江西话（简称：赣语）、客家话（简称：客语）七大方言，下又分各小方言，如闽语按其语言特点大致分为5大主要的语言片：闽北语、闽东语、闽南语、闽中语和莆仙话。从汉语方言分布看，汉语七大方言就有六大在南方，北方汉族语言统一，而南方不但各省方言不同，连省内方言也各不相同，南方一些山区甚至在几里之内就有好几种不同的方言，这也正好和南方母系来源各不相同对应。中国北方话的相似有利于北方人的团结也是历来北方更容易统一南方的重要原因之一。\n\n\n藏缅语族：主要包括中国彝族语、藏语、羌语、东南亚缅甸语、印度曼尼普尔民族语言等，有些学者认为汉语也应该被划入藏缅语族（不过要改名为汉藏语族），因为汉语族和藏缅语族十分相似，而且汉语和藏语之间的关系比藏语和缅甸语的关系更密切，从东亚人类迁移上看也是汉藏民族先和缅甸族分化后，然后汉族和藏族才发生进一步的分化，如果藏语和缅甸语能划在一起，那么汉语和藏语就更应该能划在一起。从汉语和藏缅语族关系大致可以推出汉族和彝族、藏族、羌族、缅甸族关系应为同宗，从Y染色体的单倍群类型上也证明了这一点。\n\n\n苗瑶语族：就是我国苗族和瑶族的语言，苗瑶两族关系密切，瑶族一度被认为是苗族的分支，过去很多人从蚩尤和女娲的传说认为苗族和汉族是很晚才分化，不过从单倍群上看，虽然苗瑶语族单倍群也是以O3为主，但下属分支不同，苗瑶语族属于O3c＋O3d类型，而汉藏语族多属于O3e类型，而且从语系上看，苗族和汉族语言差别较大，反而是较远的缅甸族和汉族关系更密切。\n\n\n壮侗语族：下属语支包括壮傣语支（含泰国语、老挝语、中国西南部布依族的布依语、缅甸东北部掸族的掸语、印度东北部阿萨姆邦的阿萨姆语）；侗水语支（包括中国西南地区少数民族的侗语、水语、仫佬语等）；黎语支（海南黎族语言。）壮侗语族Y染色体单倍群O2成分普遍比O3还高，语言也和其它的汉藏语系大为不同，所以现在学者大多把他们独立划为壮侗语系，也有学者认为壮侗语系和南亚语系关系比汉藏语系更接近。\n\n\n\n印度地区的汉藏语系\n印度有2000万黄种人，其中包括大量汉藏语系民族，许多都和中国人一样以龙为图腾，他们和中国人有非常大的亲源关系，印度东北各邦的民族，包括藏南地的阿鲁纳恰尔邦，相貌和中国人很相似，在印度地区经常面对各种各样种族歧视,印度,东北邦的人一直想从印度独立出来，由于人种和中国接近,很多人想干脆加入中国算了，\n印度的汉藏语系主要分布在中印交界藏南地区。不丹语也属于汉藏语系 ，不丹原来是中国的附属国，受中国的册封。他们也用中国龙作为他们的图腾，每个不丹人都相信自己是龙的传人，不丹国旗有龙，并且不丹国旗上的龙严格符合中国藩属的规格，采用的是四爪金龙，这是藩王级别的标志（五爪金龙只有中国皇帝才可以采用），代表不丹中国心。\n南亚语系\n南亚语系与汉族语系中壮侗语族无论是血统还是语言都有密切的关系。\n南亚语系基因成分复杂多样，但还是可以将其相对较多的O2单倍群作为标示。\n该语系主要包括柬埔寨语、越南语、缅甸孟族语，也包括印度蒙达语族和部分中国西南部少数民族语言，也有学者认为南亚语系和南岛语系本为同源。\n南岛语系\n也叫马来—波利尼西亚语系，对应的是黄种O1单倍群，它主要分布于西起马达加斯加，东到复活节岛，北起台湾岛和夏威夷群岛，南抵新西兰的广阔海域内的岛屿上，是世界上唯一一种主要分布在海岛上的语系，也是世界上分布面积最广的语系之一。下属包括印度尼西亚语族、波利尼西亚语族、美拉尼西亚语族、密克罗尼西亚语族四大语族。其中最大的印度尼西亚语族是菲律宾、马来西亚、印尼、文莱等国语言，也包括台湾高山族语、非洲马达加斯加语等，而其它三大语族则分别对应大洋洲波利尼西亚、美拉尼西亚、密克罗尼西亚三大群岛土著所用语言。 （南岛语系与O1南岛支分布图相同）\n\n乌拉尔语系\n分布于从北欧的斯堪的纳维亚半岛往东到乌拉尔山脉，再到西伯利亚地区的一组语言，对应的是黄种N单倍群。下属包括芬兰-乌戈尔语族和西伯利亚地区萨莫耶德语族（含有一定的Q单倍群）。其中芬兰—乌戈尔语族包括芬兰语支和乌戈尔语支，前者包括芬兰语、爱沙尼亚语等，后者包括中欧的匈牙利语和鄂毕河流域的曼西语等，主要为侵入欧洲的N系、Q系黄种游牧民族使用的语言。\n乌拉尔语系和阿尔泰语系关系密切，在过去曾被一起划分为乌拉尔-阿尔泰语系。\n阿尔泰语系\n这是世界第三大语系，也是我国北方少数民族主要语系，代表的单倍群是亚洲棕种C3类型，阿尔泰语系的扩张对应的是棕种游牧民族的扩张，下属包括突厥、蒙古、通古斯3个语族，有时也包括朝鲜语族和日本语族。 突厥语系的发源地阿尔泰山脉，阿尔泰山脉也是阿尔泰语系得名的原因\n\n\n突厥语族是指古代突厥民族使用过的，现在突厥后裔仍在使用的语言，他们又常被统一称为突厥人，突厥语族是阿尔泰语系中最大的一个语族，分布于西起巴尔干半岛，东至西伯利亚东部的勒拿河，南临阿拉伯半岛，北至亚洲大陆北端的新西伯利亚群岛的广大地区，使用突厥语为主要地区包括土耳其、阿塞拜疆、塞浦路斯、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯鞑靼斯坦共和国以及中国的新疆等地（中国境内使用人口约750万）。虽然突厥语是中亚民族的主要语言，但是在过去中亚、新疆等地使用的都是印欧语，而且直到今日印欧人R单倍群依然是中亚、新疆单倍群主要成分之一，之所以现在会改用阿尔泰语，原因就在于来自东方讲阿尔泰语的突厥人的征服。\n\n\n蒙古语族：不用说就是蒙古人以及和蒙古相关民族的语言，蒙古语族各语言主要分布在中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯联邦、阿富汗等地，使用人口约500万。从使用人数上看，虽然蒙古帝国的领土和声威都远胜曾经突厥汗国，但是在语言文明的同化方面，突厥人要远胜过蒙古人。\n\n蒙古人民共和国境内的蒙古语属喀尔喀方言，使用人口约 180万;中国境内的蒙古语分内蒙古、卫拉特、巴尔虎布利亚特3种方言，使用人口近300万。\n不过今日中国许多蒙古族已经不会说蒙古语了，蒙古国人口也增加到290万\n\n\n\n通古斯语族：通古斯语族包括中国满族语和东北亚鄂伦春语、埃文基语、鄂温克语、赫哲语等，一般认为该语族共同起源于西伯利亚东部森林的通古斯河畔，现在使用通古斯语的人数已经十分稀少，最大的通古斯语族—满族也基本不会讲满语。\n\n\n朝鲜语族：朝鲜语和通古斯语关系密切，又被合称为朝鲜-通古斯语族，虽然从单倍群类型上看，朝鲜基本都是黄种O类型，但是从语言上看朝鲜人基本被棕种通古斯人同化，这说明朝鲜民族最初很可能是以外来移民的方式不断融入当地棕种C3通古斯民族，而不是像汉族一样征服当地棕种民族，从单倍群类型上看汉族是以O3单倍群为主体，而朝鲜族O1、O2、O3成分都有一定比例，反映出朝鲜族是不同类型黄种人分批进入棕种通古斯人区域，不断被通古斯同化的过程。不过也有人认为朝鲜语和通古斯语还是有较大不同，应该被单独划为一语系。\n\n\n日本语族：日本学者曾经提议将日语单独划为一个语系，包含日语族和琉球语族两大分支，也有学者认为日本和朝鲜语系接近，应该划出“日朝语系”。从实际情况上看，日语主要是来自从朝鲜东渡过来的弥生人的语言，既然朝鲜属于阿尔泰语，所以也有人认为日本语系和朝鲜语系一样应该同归为“阿尔泰语系”。\n\n\n\n土耳其的吊诡\n土耳其最常被称为突厥人的后代，但是土耳其的父系单倍群：R1b占15%，R1a占7.5%，I占5.5%，J占33.5%，E1b1b占11%。基本上没有任何来自东方的成分，从血统上看大部分土耳其人实际上是希腊人和阿拉伯人（J–地中海人）的混血，讲突厥语原因就在于他们被来自东方突厥人征服过\n中亚新疆语言亦是征服产物\n\n中亚五国都是突厥语国家\n\n中亚、新疆原本是R系印欧语的天下，但是来自东方C3棕种人（游牧民族）后来征服这里，虽然这里依然以R单倍群为主，但是语言已经从印欧语系变成了阿尔泰语系\n突厥语族中的哈萨克人基本就是来自东方的棕黄人种 。今日突厥国家中以哈萨克人C3成分最多，哈萨克人应该最接近古代突厥人的模样，土耳其人则基本没多少古突厥的血统 （哈萨克人是标准的东方面孔和维吾尔人相貌大不相同）\n而突厥语族的维吾尔人、乌兹别克人虽然改用阿尔泰语系，则单倍群类型大多还是以印欧语系R单倍群为主\n闪-含语系\n该语系又叫做亚非语系，主要分布于北非和西南亚地区，对应的是地中海J单倍群，也包括东北非E3b单倍群，下属包括闪米特语族和含米语族。\n闪-含语系的由来据《圣经﹒旧约﹒创世纪》记载：上帝觉得人类十分邪恶，所以要将所有人消灭。在罪孽深重的人类中，只有诺亚在上帝面前蒙恩。上帝认为他是一个有德之人，很守本分；诺亚的三个儿子也在他的严格教育下也没有误入歧途。于是诺亚夫妇、三个儿子及其媳妇听从上帝的旨意造出“诺亚方舟”逃过大洪水，作为新一代人种保存下来，这三个儿子大哥叫做闪，老二叫做含，最小一个叫雅弗。\n闪的子孙叫闪米特人，“闪米特”意即“闪的子孙”，又称“塞姆人”或“闪族”，他们被认为是亚洲人祖先，现在的闪米特人特指闪米特语族，包括犹太语和阿拉伯语等。他们现在主要分布在西亚和北非地区，体内 J 单倍群(地中海基因)占主体地位。\n含的子孙叫含米特人，“含米特”意即“含的子孙”，又称“哈姆人”或“含族”，被认为是古埃及、古努比亚等非洲人祖先。他们主要分布在北非，除J单倍群外，大部分含米特人体内东北非黑人E3b单倍群的比率比J单倍群还多。\n\n含米特语可以认为是东北非E3b单倍群黑人在J单倍群闪米特民族混合下产生语言。含米特语可分为北支、东支：北支系指北非的柏柏尔人的语言，东支指非洲东北部古埃及人（不是今日埃及人）、科普特人和库希特各族的语言。\n\n雅弗的子孙相传为雅利安人，亦称“印欧人”，被认为是欧洲白人的祖先。不过印欧语系和闪-含语系可是大为不同。\n高加索语系\n主要指分布于黑海和里海之间高加索山区的民族语言，其代表是格鲁吉亚语和车臣语，从地理位置和人种单倍群类型上看，很可能对应的是高加索G单倍群语系，虽然G单倍群已经普遍不是当地居民比率最大的单倍群类型。\n达罗毗荼语系\n就是印度达罗毗荼人使用的语言，前面说过他们的单倍群类型就是一个万花筒，所以具体也不清楚其到底对应的是哪支父系单倍群的语言（含量最多L单倍群可能性最大），也许就是一种混合语言，已知达罗毗荼语系支系多达20多种，和他们体内多样化的单倍群一样复杂，其中最重要的四种是泰米尔语、马拉雅拉姆语、卡纳里斯语和泰卢固语，分别为印度泰米尔纳德邦、喀拉拉邦、卡纳塔克邦和安得拉邦的官方语言。\n其它语系\n除了这以上九大语系外，还有一些非洲、美洲地区的语系，如非洲的尼日尔—刚果语系、沙里—尼罗语系、科依桑语系（对应A单倍群），美洲的爱斯基摩—阿留申语系以及一些印第安语系（对应Q单倍群），不过因为都比较孤立，在以后讲世界史中的民族关系应用较少，就不一一介绍了\n地理小记\n帕米尔高原\n帕米尔高原（塔吉克语中就是世界屋脊的意思）平均海拔高过青藏高原，只是面积较小，加上海拔峰值在喜马拉雅山，所以世界屋脊还是被青藏高原戴着。帕米尔高原是亚洲的一个重要分隔位，东西方在近代前都难以逾越，正所谓是东西方的隔离屏障，各方打到这里，都变成强弩之末，势不能穿鲁缟。\n干旱牧区\n草原人民活动在欧亚大陆干旱半干旱气候区，这里是欧亚大陆除西伯利亚以外最恶劣的生存坏境，但是却盛产冷兵器时代最可怕的军备——马匹，艰苦的坏境和强大的军备使他们对富裕的周边文明馋涎欲滴，只要一有机会他们就去掠夺周边文明的财富，他们常常自比作狼，而把周边文明比作羊，认为对富裕文明的掠夺如同狼吃羊一样天经地义。在古代史上草原游牧文明是世界各大文明中最可怕的敌人，直到火器广泛应用以后，游牧民族骑兵作战优势不复存在，从此逐渐退出历史的舞台。\n中东\n\n这里是古代世界文明最早的交流中心\n\n广义的中东包括整个西亚和北非，狭义的中东是指地中海东部到波斯湾的大片地区，即西亚北非中从埃及到土耳其、伊朗的部分，这片地段被称为两洋三州五海之地，其处是联系亚欧非三大洲，沟通大西洋和印度洋的枢纽地带，周边被地中海、黑海、里海、红海、阿拉伯海五大海所环绕。这片地区与黑非洲文明间隔着撒哈拉沙漠、与欧洲文明间隔着土耳其海峡和高加索山脉、与东亚文明间隔着帕米尔高原、与南亚文明间隔着兴都库什山，中东处在各大文明的地理中心位置，这也是为何这片炎热干旱，沙漠遍野的地区能够在古代长期保持较先进的文明重要原因之一。\n伊朗高原\n伊朗高原周围被雄伟的高山所包围，其南部边界是印度洋和波斯湾，高原中央是辽阔的内陆盆地，没有河流通往大海。\n扎格罗斯山脉\n位于伊朗伊朗高原西南部，是伊朗第一大山脉，为伊朗高原和伊拉克美索不达米亚平原的分界线\n美索不达米亚平原\n是指伊拉克及叙利亚东部，为西亚地区最大的平原，又称中东两河流域。\n小亚细亚\n\n亚细亚即亚洲，源自希腊语中的日出之地\n\n小亚细亚意思就是小亚洲，小亚细亚又名安纳托利亚或西亚美尼亚，是亚洲西南部的一个半岛，包括土耳其的安那托利亚一带和塞浦路斯岛，大体上相当于土耳其的亚洲部分，位于黑海和地中海之间。\n非洲\n源自希腊语，全称是阿非利加洲，意思是：阳光灼热的地方，以撒哈拉沙漠为界，分为北非和撒哈拉以南非洲两部分，北非现在70%以上为阿拉伯人，阿拉伯文化与伊斯兰教为北非重要人文特征，和西亚文化类似，撒哈拉沙漠中部以南的非洲以黑色人种为主，所以又叫做黑非洲。\n其它\n世界史讲的过程中，一直有一个问题，把世界各个文明孤立介绍，这种世界史不如称之为国别史，且介绍顺序也常有问题。\n例如常从埃及，巴比伦，印度，希腊，罗马这顺序过来，仿佛这几个国家是先后出现的。实际上巴比伦地区的苏美尔文明比埃及更早，只是巴比伦国出现的较晚，占印度大篇幅的列国时期，孔雀帝国出现时间都比古希腊开始和繁荣的时间要晚。\n参考资料\n全球史下看中国（第1部）：上古时代【翁启宇】\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史","地理","生物"]},{"title":"平凡回望中的不平凡","url":"/%E4%BA%BA%E9%97%B4%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97.html","content":"\n\n素材源头是一位从业心理医生近70年的普通1.48米小老太太，90岁时仍在朝九晚五地工作，老太太不是什么巨擘($b\\grave{o}$)，没发表过什么文章，一生无惊天动地的成绩。就其 平凡世俗但却丰满 的人生，娓娓而来的一本小书。摘取部分文字成文。\n\n家人健康，精力充沛，有几个知己可以交谈，就不错，其它都是过眼云烟\n将事做好的习惯与内心\n\n工作\n适当忙碌比过多空闲好，如果工作紧紧束缚自己宝贵的生命和家人的幸福，自信的离开，更多是别人赚钱的工具。\n必须这样做（你也应该）就像人生不必要的行囊，年轻时将欲望作为动力，努力奋斗并非坏事，但随着年龄增长，要学会了解自己，慢慢舍弃想要达到更多的想法，让自己快乐起来。\n在追求的过程中，一定要分清自己是自己，他人在实践他人的人生，我们不需要追寻别人的脚步。\n与人关系\n在遭遇不顺时，放弃浇愁只会止步之前，按部就班好好工作和生活，微观来说，命运一部分就是与人的关系，改变人生的重要转机，会在某时某刻突然出现。\n试着扩大交际圈，探索未知的世界，都会给你带来别样的体验，这样就不容易记起那些烦心事，不被负面情绪影响的最大秘诀就是好好生活，这种药不会立即生效，需要日积月累，人生中精神饱满的时光非常有限，不要过多停留在过去的阴影中。\n很多表面风光无限的人，承担的责任更大，立场与人际关系更复杂，遇到的问题和承受的压力，比旁人看到的多得多，无论外表多么光鲜。打开盒子，谁也不知道会冒出什么东西。\n人，生而孤独\n过于害怕孤独，就会迎合别人，或对别人妥协，使自己痛苦，但人生的本意基本就是一个人生活（从出生到离开，正视孤独有助于过上更幸福的人生）。人与人之间有距离，想通了，对别人不会抱有强烈的愿望或期待，给周围人带来的自由和欢乐也更多，孤独并非一件坏事，是一件正常的事。\n不依附伴侣，把心力放在自己想要的生活上「耗费几年或几十年想要改变别人，只会让自己陷入麻烦中」。\n家庭\n追求完美只是父母的一厢情愿，与孩子的幸福并无多大关系，为了孩子的健康成长，不如平和和欢笑地与孩子好好相处。\n对患者来说，能接待他们的医生很多，但对孩子而言，母亲只有一个。孩子的成长的每个过程比任何一部动漫或电影都令人感动，育儿过程是让自己越发优秀的成长过程，培养他人是一种很好的经验。\n不要阻碍别人自立，如果全面掌控，成长就会停止，公司如此，孩子亦如此。孩子开启自己的人生，父母就不要贸然闯入，孩子成年后人生与父母人生已完全分离，有座桥梁沟通关系，不能频繁登上这座桥，应在各自生活事业兴趣中寻求充实感。\n活在当下，坦然自在\n日文版的翻译放在首标题上了，也更符合岛国人内敛的风格，个人觉得比现今书名《人间值得》更为贴切，或者用二位作者的另一续作的翻译名《活得通透》，也更合适。\n两位作者（都是精神科医生，【奥田弘美】54 vs 92【中村恒子】）如下：\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"从Error Based Injection看MySQL group by过程","url":"/%E4%BB%8EError-Based-Injection%E7%9C%8BMySQL%20group-by%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B.html","content":"\nError Based Injection\n作为SQL注入的一种\n\n构造恶意的输入来引发报错\n数据回显受限时，通过构造特定的报错来获取数据库中的特定数据\n\n利用回显的报错注入\n不断尝试，进行猜测目标数据库的基本信息和sql语句构造的形式\n利用报错信息的报错注入\n\n最典型的是双注入查询\n\n在一个查询中再套一个子查询，精心构造报错，这些报错将泄露数据库数据[1]\n\n\nBIGINT等数据类型溢出\nXpath语法错误，如extractValue（目标文档，xml路径)，第二个参数当你写入其它格式就会报错，如第二个参数改为concat(‘!’,select database())，！开头不是xml语法，就报错异常回显。类似的函数还有updateXml\nconcat+rand+group by导致主键重复\n类型转换报错\nAnd More\n\n看看这套group by组合\nselect count(*),CONCAT(version(),floor(rand(0)*2)) as x from information_schema.tables group by x;\n触发报错\n[Err] 1062 - Duplicate entry &#x27;5.7.30-log1&#x27; for key &#x27;&lt;group_key&gt;&#x27;\n这个错入注入里 rand() 指定参数很重要，一旦制定后，生成的随机数队列就是确定的，结合 *2 并 floor后，其生成的值只有0和1两种情况\n这个报错不得不说是MySQL的bug，因为在MS SQL和Access里并不会出现，联想到先前一位程序员大法师吐槽 最流行的数据库MySQL代码乱糟糟\n其根源在于rand函数在select后的第二阶段，又被再次运行所致\n\nselect 发现group key不存在，设定下一阶段动作转态为insert操作\n在insert时，再次运行rand()，进行插入动作，再运行到第3行就出错了。前两行的统计结果也是错的。\n\nfloor(rand(0)*2)生成的序列为0,1,1,0,1，前面的count结果也是错误，本应两行count各为1，计算结果却是5.7.30-log1计数为2\n前两行将0,1,1给用掉了，第3行的0,1撞在枪口上\n\n\n\nDrill-Down看看\n随机数\n计算机因为是程序控制，只能产生有规律的随机数，即成为伪随机数，咱们看个例子\nRand_seed=(rand_seed*123+59)%65536;\n你当黑盒看，放进一个数，会出来一个特定的数，并把这个数当下一次的种子再放进去\n\n如果你每次放进去一样的种子，生成的随机数列就是一样的了。这样的随机数设计有无好处？有，可重入\n有些软件，放时间种子是内置的默认操作，有些则将种子设置开放给调用方\n\nPG数据库的random函数就不接受参数，JS的Math.random()也不接受参数\n\n\n\n配套什么操作才出错\n\n\nmax，avg，min，sum均一样，都在第3行出错\n\n\n没有count类函数是否出错？不出错。\n\n\n剖析过程\ngroup by执行过程中的insert逻辑不同，等同于select distinct的语义（性能相同，distinct当有limit加持时，性能更好）\n\n创建临时表，且创建唯一索引\n遍历源表，依次取数据插入临时表。碰见唯一键冲突则跳过，否则插入成功（此处没复用出bug的代码）\n遍历完成后，将临时表作为结果集返回给客户端\n\nDrill-Down再看group by\n一个标准的group by局域包含排序，分组，聚合函数。当group by语句中没有order by，默认按group字段升序排序。\n\n\n\nfiltered\nExtra\n\n\n\n\n100\nUsing temporary; Using filsort\n\n\n\nexplain看常见分析结果：Using Index能用上索引，Using temporary使用临时表，Using filsort需要排序\n\ngroup by字段用不上索引，那么临时表常见就要搬出来救场，故也为什么索引对性能很重要\n filsort并不是说通过磁盘文件进行排序，只是告诉我们排序操作，或可理解为不按表中索引的排序\n\n\n内存临时表若达到tmp_table_size的大小（默认16M），就会将内存临时表升级为磁盘临时表，然后重新开始遍历计算（丢弃重做纯浪费）\n执行过程一边读数据，一边直接得到结果，是不需要额外内存的，要额外内存保存中间结果（如遍历无序数据）或过程要利用唯一索引约束等，就要搬出临时表救场\n遍历完成后，再根据group by字段做排序，得到结果集返回给客户端\n\n觉得文字不够形象的，可参考此文章[2]的配图加深认识\n\nDrill-Down第三弹：order by\n排序执行过程：\nsort_buffer是有序数组，临时表是二维表结构\n若sort_buffer设置的大小不够大，会用临时表来辅助排序（增大sort_buffer_size可尽量减少对排序数据进行分段，buffer区放不下，分治；分段会造成MySQL不得不使用临时表进行交换排序）\n\n\n如何确定是否使用了临时文件来完成排序呢？[4]\nset session optimizer_trace=&quot;enabled=on&quot;; -- 开启optimizer_trace运行SQL语句;select * from information_schema.OPTIMIZER_TRACE&#x27;; --查询优化跟踪过程set session optimizer_trace=&quot;enabled=off&quot;; -- 关闭optimizer_trace\n结果中的number_of_tmp_files表示排序过程中用到的临时文件数，因为sort_buffer放不下\n\n\nfilsort也是在内存中排序的，排序区sort_buffer是每个thread独享的\n\n双路排序【rowid排序】：取排序字段和行数据指针，放进sort_buffer中完成排序，是MySQL认为磁盘外部排序还比不上回表查询的效率时的选择，好处是节省内存\n单路排序【全字段排序】：所有字段在sort_buffer中进行排序，好处是不用再查表记录（减少随机IO)，排序结果直接返回，性能更好（此改进算法子MySQL4.1出现，应对大内存时代）\n\n当max_length_for_sort_data更大，就用单路排序算法。否则才降级为双路排序，排序效率高，就要加大此参数值，结合去掉不必要的返回字段\n\n\n\n\n\n\n觉得文字不够形象的，可参考此文章[3]的配图加深认识\n\nDrill-Down第四弹：概括总结与优化\n\n分组（group by）列无索引的数据，因为无序，所以要创建临时表，然后一个个判断属于哪个分组，再根据分组进行排序\ngroup by的优化\n\n索引不必赘述，顺序访问获取要返回的字段或计算聚合函数，再友好不过。列值变化当前组就访问结束，将之前的数据直接返回，避免创建临时表，也不用sort_buffer额外排序，大大提高效率\n\nMySQL 5.7支持generated column机制，来实现列数据关联更新，在此列上加上索引，可更加便利达到目标效果\n\n\n不用排序的可禁止排序，添加order by null，这样你在explain就可以看到效果，没有了filesort\n（若分组字段使用率很低，欠缺索引）很大的表，内存临时表放不下转成磁盘临时表，也是耗时的，有无更深的优化方法？\n\n可试用 SQL_BIG_RESULT这个hint来暗示优化器改变执行过程【告诉优化器直接使用磁盘临时表，省却内存放不下，丢弃，再用磁盘临时表的浪费动作，且用排序算法】\n大喇叭宣告：这个语句涉及的数据量很大，请直接用磁盘临时表\n\n如未达到磁盘临时表的使用条件，仍不会使用磁盘临时表\n\n\n优化器一看，磁盘临时表是B+树存储，存储效率不如数组来得高，语句最终的结果使用场景为全块扫描，没有范围查找。优化器会使用数组结构的磁盘临时表（类比memory引擎内存临时表来理解，和磁盘临时表默认InnoDB不同，数据单独存放，索引保存数据位置。采用无序hash索引，数据按照写入数据顺序存放，本质与数组无差）\nSQL_BIG_RESULT+order by null explain结果只展示filesort，Using temporary没出现\n\n\n\n\n\n\n此段也可以对照[2]来加深形象理解\n\n参考\n1.HatBoy MySQL报错注入 ↩2.腾讯云 看一遍就理解groupby ↩3.CSDN MySQL排序内部原理揭秘 ↩4.CSDN MySQL优化器原理 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["数据库"]},{"title":"从技术到管理转型的几个技巧","url":"/%E4%BB%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7.html","content":"\n纯技术走向技术管理，是开发人员职业生涯的新发展。\n如何从管好自己变成管好别人？这个转型的问题相信很多人都碰到了。悟性好，准备足的，对于转型的不适，看看书可能就解决了。\n也许你最开始会面对转型处理不好，昏天黑地的加班。到慢慢你能放弃内心挣扎，良好的泰然处之这些个问题。但说到底，这里的核心是组织管理，组织行为学了解一下无妨，但人的因素团队的管理又不是组织行为学能简单的涵盖的。\n说几句恭维性的话，你能在公司里被领导提拔为一个管理者，至少是聪明度，准备度在团队中是一流的，且具有一定不可替代性的业务精英。\n\n我转一下同事写的在转型过程中的总结，也用以提醒自己\n管理的核心是管理人\n技术转型管理的人都会在这个问题上本末倒置，管理初期都会把大量精力放在开发工作的管理上。如流程改进，项目跟进排期，需求评审PK，技术体系规划，整天都是你忙碌憔悴的身影（这是你想要的么？）。\n当你把团队定义成自己的四肢，精力的延伸，让自己这个骨干更能干事，这可能在一时会有效果。但人的精力还是有限的，当团队人员增长到9个以上的时候，你会明显感觉到这不是一件快乐的事儿。\n还有一点更可怕的事情，老组员不愿意再做你的影子。他们的主动性被你扼杀的差不多了。老大交一个团队给你，是想你把这个团队带起来。「起来」的含义很多：成熟，可持续，有战斗力，有思想。核心是团队能力的提升。\n只控制目标，定期Review，少给评论，少下结论，任其犯错，事后总结。这对于高级的老大来说，容易做到，因为他们对事情的细节不熟悉，故容易放得开。但对于技术转型的人来说却容易成为一个超大门槛，事无巨细，了然于心。知道可以做到更好更规范，却要憋着不说，是一种内心折磨。但唯有如此官僚才能让团队不变成一个人的手脚，而自己日益成长。\n理解人的另外一个概念是：“人的事情比项目的事情更加重要!”。\n当招聘需求和项目需求碰在一起的时候，新管理者都会毫不犹豫的把招聘的事情搁在一边，把精力集中到攻坚项目。其实不然，项目永远都是做不完的，人的问题才是最迫切的。\n管理没有人就不是管理的。把招聘的优先级放在所有工作的第一位，把人员指标当作决不让步的关键。据同事的观察，厉害的领导在人的问题上往往非常狼性，决不让步。而在其他情况下又非常好说话，甚至愿意主动帮忙你最紧急的项目往后推几天。\n交流与关注\n作为基层管理，你必然对上又对下，了解每个人的特点和性格，合适用人，关注给予每个人阶段性的发展适应的工作分配与支持，相信已经是能做到的极限了。对于组织成员，你需要给些空间，就如放风筝一样。\n充分的向上沟通是你给团队带来的最大福利\n技术人员很含蓄，当你不突破含蓄的习惯，进而缺乏向上沟通将使你长时间的悲催。\n\n\n克服心理障碍，把领导当朋友。所有困难困惑都让他知道，早期他会乐意帮助你，时间长了会把你的成长当作他的心血。\n\n\n把下属的成绩宣扬出去，让你的领导知道。下属的成绩既是你的成绩，也是你的领导他的成绩。\n\n\n\n在领导前面变得八卦，把团队各种变化讲给领导听，不经意间给他提供重要资讯。孜孜不倦向领导打听各种消息，他们有很多你完全不知道的消息和对待某些问题更高层面的看法。\n\n团队的困难解决，团队的成绩放大，有价值的资讯，这些是一个管理者对于团队来说不可替代性产生的重要因素。\n\n总结来说，领导也是人，所谓领导，就是给更大的领导服务的人\n\n为个人增值而工作\n带团队绝不仅仅是技术够高就行，更重要的是综合影响力的提升。只有个人价值真正随着你的工作而一点点提升，才能收获到更多成就感，也能让自己更值钱。让自己更值钱的目标也能让你将很多问题和决定看的更透彻。\n结语\n管理不像写代码，没有准确的方法论，如上只是提醒，修行还靠个人。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队","IT"]},{"title":"从迅雷IPO到互联网生存模式思考","url":"/%E4%BB%8E%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7IPO%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83.html","content":"\n最近迅雷不是二次重启赴美IPO么，从毕业时室友去到迅雷，大家羡慕不已，呼成x百万，到现在早已离开，迅雷却仍在奋斗奔上市。也算是见证了一个科技扎实的创业公司在这一路的变化，虽然不是从内部，这里写下看到的一点点分析。\n2014其商业模式\n迅雷的商业模式简单：\n\n网络广告\n付费增值\n游戏及其它业务\n\n\n2011年，网络广告收入占51%，付费增值25%，游戏及其它服务占24%\n大家都知道迅雷从下载软件转战在线视频，但并不属于第一梯队。归结于马太效应，二三线梯队的迅雷，酷六，56，激动网能量都开始下滑，集中表现在广告收入的急速下降。\n从迅雷提交的spec文件上，发现广告收入已下滑到只剩下20%，2014 Q1只剩18.3%。\n放眼视频行业，广告依然是各家的主要口粮。换句话说，迅雷已不算一个靠广告为主的视频公司，变成了付费用户为主，游戏为辅的公司。\n但是这两者来看，都是向消费者收费的模式，在欧美人口味看来，不具有持续的放大潜力。类比得出来腾讯的模式为什么要弱过阿里。两家都是在卖流量，但是阿里的流量更“挣钱”。\n游戏模式估值\n腾讯好在骑在磅礴的游戏浪潮上，关系链上的人活跃时，基本可认为处于闲暇时刻。\n\n\n说到游戏浪潮，游戏概念股一直在资本市场上不太受待见，PE基本只能给到5-6倍左右。\n\n\n再加之多数是靠运营成功的公司，还未证明其开发实力。\n有开发实力可能公司更稳固，老外的游戏口味本身就与东方不同，市场成熟度也不同，再加上无线互联网的变数，君不见现在活的最high，挣的最快的都是搞代理运营的，你要去美上市，你就忍忍吧，老美看长期价值来投资，死脑筋发展的更坚实，不像我东方大国满地豆腐渣，建在流沙上也没啥。\n\n现在回头看，10 年前的自己，还真是对社会运行与生存认识浅薄，口无遮拦张嘴即来\n\n\n\n三是游戏公司的持续成长性问题，游戏是文化创意产业，世界顶尖游戏公司暴雪也没能抵挡住现在持续下降的业绩，以及后续作品推出来乏力的宿命。可见，如何解决可持续发展，是所有游戏公司的一门必修课。\n\n\n互联网经济生态\n\n无聊经济（典型代表: 游戏）\n团体优惠（已经式微）\n线上广告/销售(所有的销售，实物虚拟都可以向网上搬)\n\n这些形态就是互联网经济生态的加和？08年就听过上海的同事离职前做此样的分享，说明别人思虑在先，我等上班太麻痹了。\n2011其市场数据附录[1]\nxychart-beta horizontal\n    title \"2011一季度三大视频品牌广告营收\"\n    x-axis [\"迅雷\", \"优酷\", \"土豆\"]\n    y-axis \"万美元\" 0 --> 2000\n    bar [537, 1830, 1123]\npie showData title 2011.4月下载工具使用时间Top5\n\"迅雷Thunder\":78\n\"电驴Emule\":6.3\n\"FlashGet\":2.8\n\"超级旋风\":2.6\n\"FlashFXP\":2\npie showData title 2011一季度在线视频月均浏览时间分布\n\"优酷\":31\n\"土豆\":16\n\"搜狐\":14.6\n\"爱奇艺\":12.1\n\"迅雷看看\":4.2\n\"酷6\":4.1\n\"新浪视频\":4\n\"中国网络电视台\":2.3\n\"56\":2.2\n\"乐视\":1.3\n\"其它\":8.2\n数据参考\n1.中国经济周刊 两月四度推迟IPO，迅雷是个奇迹，反正我信了 ↩","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"企业人才的筛选模型","url":"/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%9B%E9%80%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html","content":"\n《贞观政要-卷七-崇儒学》所言：为政之要，惟在得人，用其非才，必难致治。放在企业经营中一样适用，国家其实也像一个大公司。\n在小的企业，筛选人才靠老板的眼光，在大的企业，不是所有招聘都过老板，为了统一认知，需订立对人才的评估指标，以指导执行。\n因为 IQ，EQ 的高接受度，用来量化衡量一个人就有了好的评价尺子/评价角度。我们看看一众『商』及在不同岗位的指导意义。\n各类能力/考察指标\n\n\n\n智商\n情商\n专业\n经验\n逆商\n态度\n忠诚\n资源\n规划力\n执行力\n领导力\n\n\n\n\n教育背景学习理解逻辑分析抽象归纳思维敏捷\n亲和友善人际理解沟通协调换位思考感召能力\n专业经验学术背景理论深厚技术过硬前沿思考知识宽广\n行业经验解决问题跨界融合\n毅力坚韧执着抗压逆势应对适应能力\n求新求变狼性自驱阳光开放解决问题\n文化认同忠诚可靠诚信尽责职业操守遵纪合规\n社会关系资源转化市场网络\n视野格局洞察规划创新能力系统思维\n结果导向组织规划团队驾驭\n团队领导激情激励识人用人凝聚感染人才培养\n\n\n\n能力\nIQ\n无需多解释，标签是：反应敏捷，教育背景。高 IQ 的人善于举一反三，融会贯通，快速总结提炼，表达清晰简洁\n\nPQ\nProfession Quotient，专业商。标签是：专业经验，学术背景。是在专业上有长期，深度的钻研及成果，出自特定学术领域的专业教育培训。对于一些业务经营岗位，精算，量化投资，科研人员等专业技术岗位较为关键\nEQ\n同样无需解释。标签是：亲和友善，人际理解。销售人才必须具备很高的情商，专业技术人才对事多，对人少，要求可适当降低\nSQ\nSocial Resources Quotient，资源商。标签是：人脉关系，资源转化。对销售工作尤为重要。\nEEQ\nExperience Quotient，经验商，标签是：行业经验，解决问题。能从经验中形成很强的预判问题，发现问题，分析并解决问题的能力，是管理和销售人才不可少的核心素质\nExecute\n执行能力，标签是：结果导向，组织执行。能合理分解计划，充分利用资源，有组织，有步骤的实施计划，坚定的结果导向，以结果检验执行\nThink\n规划力，标签是：格局事业，跨越式思维。洞察机遇，创造性跨界思维能力。这一指标是评价潜力管理干部的关键，级别越高，此指标要求越高。本质是衡量人的思维能力。就像有些人是从高空俯瞰城市一样，能透视掌握空中，地面，地下交通设施的整体结构和关系，看到城市在更大版图中的位置，有些人则只看到分散的车，人，房子。\n每个人的成长，一定伴随着立体性思维的构建成长。点线面体最少要到面的层级，能多角度多维度思考分析，将复杂交错的线条，有逻辑地综合起来，把握全局抓住复杂问题的本质找出整体的解决方案。\n到体这个层级，就进一步是框架式思维，能将海量知识，经验，信息，结构性地分类，重组。将上下左右，过去，现在和未来融会贯通，直达本质，找准战略定位和未来趋势。\nLead\n领导力，标签是：团队领导，感染激励。能自上而下穿透至基层，凝聚人心，以身作则，不断激发队伍积极性，主动性，创造性，利用影响力实现高绩效，高质量\n态度\nATQ\nAttitude Quotient，态度商，标签是：求新求变，狼性自驱。ATQ 优秀的人才普遍具有强烈的自我成就动机和强大的自驱力，能持续敏锐学习，自我突破。ATQ 无论对管理还是销售人员，都是判断其个人发展潜力的核心指标。个人认为此动机维度统摄如下两商，甚至经验商业远程被其统摄。\nAQ\nAdversity Quotient，逆商，标签是：毅力坚韧，执着抗压。具备坚持不懈死磕到底的个性。AQ 不够强的人，很难走得好，走得远\nLQ\nLoyalty Quotient，忠诚商。标签是：文化认同，忠诚可靠。根基是个人的品行，进而是个人价值观和企业文化契合\n岗位评判要求\n把能力维度都分四档\n\nA+档，非常杰出，同类人群前 5%\nA-档，较为突出，同类人群前 20%\nB+档，基本合格，同类人群前 70%\nB-档，不达要求，同类人群后 30%\n\n不同工位在不同指标要达到的水平不同，如销售人才，EQ 至少要在 A - 及以上，但 PQ 可以是 B-。但若所有能力加权是 B-，这样的候选人不能录用。\n\n\n\n\n智商\n情商\n专业商\n经验商\n逆商\n态度商\n忠诚商\n资源商\n规划力\n执行力\n领导力\n\n\n\n\n管理\n中\n中\n高\n高\n高\n高\n高\n低\n高\n高\n高\n\n\n专业\n高\n低\n高\n低\n中\n中\n低\n低\n中\n中\n低\n\n\n销售\n低\n高\n低\n高\n高\n高\n低\n高\n低\n高\n中\n\n\n\n如果以 10 分制的定区间的话\ngitGraph\ncommit id:\"10分\"\nbranch \"杰出\"\ncommit id:\"9.5分\" tag:\"前1%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"杰出\"\ncommit id:\"优秀\"\nbranch \"优秀\"\ncommit id:\"9分\" tag:\"前5%\"\ncommit id:\"8.5分\" tag:\"前10%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"优秀\"\ncommit id:\"良好\"\nbranch \"良好\"\ncommit id:\"8分\" tag:\"前20%\"\ncommit id:\"7.5分\" tag:\"前30%\"\ncommit id:\"7分\" tag:\"前40%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"良好\"\ncommit id:\"基本符合\"\nbranch \"基本符合\"\ncommit id:\"6.5分\" tag:\"前50%\"\ncommit id:\"6分\" tag:\"前60%\"\ncommit id:\"5分\" tag:\"前70%\"\ncheckout main\nmerge \"基本符合\"\ncommit id:\"不符\" type:REVERSE\ncommit id:\"4.5分\" type:REVERSE tag:\"后30%\"\ncommit id:\"0分\" type:REVERSE\n\n但在实际执行过程中，打分制因拆分太细，且分值和比例并不直接映射，不利于操作人记忆掌握，且每个人的打分水位线不同，就像电影评分有人都打分偏高，不利于数据对齐分析，不如简化为更上面的四档位\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管","HR"]},{"title":"企业大数据历史与应用趋势","url":"/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E4%B8%8E%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF.html","content":"\n大数据\nGartner 技术成熟度曲线的随动\n大数据并不是一个学术概念，而是自2010年从产业界孕育起始，陆续有开源项目配套出现。2013年大数据到了炒作顶点，到14年往落地方面去走。从15年开始，大数据概念已经消失，取而代之的是“机器学习”。16年机器学习炒作到顶峰，17年深度学习代替机器学习站在顶点上，18年都差不多只谈深度学习。\n\n\n\n内涵\n\n\n数据驱动智能化是大数据的本质特征\n\n\n相较技术，大数据更是商业模式创新和企业治理方法论（从它的孕育点就可见一斑）\n\n肩扛去卖菜和开车去卖菜，是有很大的经营区别的。大数据相当于高速公路，将从种菜思路改变成公路思维，但不会改变你的业务本质\n\n\n\n短期内，强人工智能还不会出现\n\n当前还不能进行因果学习，都还停留在弱人工智能的阶段\n人类还可暂时领先的领域：跨领域推理，抽象能力，知其然和所以然，常识，自我意识，审美，情感\n\n\n\n能解决什么问题\n\n\n数据孤岛\n\n\n数据异构\n产生一系列技术来解决如上两点，融合，继而用好数据\n\n\n目标朝向\n智能化，人性化，精细化\n数据分析的流程\n目标体系指导（自顶向下）\n\n指标体系\n数据采集体系\n数据治理体系：清洗变换\n数据分析\n数据可视化\n\n新的工业革命呼之欲出\n生产力发展历史规律告诉互联网什么？\n\n新生产力（技术和产品）改变新的商业模式\n\n\n\n第一次工业革命 - 200年\n\n\n第二次工业革命 - 100年\n\n\n第三次工业革命 - 50年\n\n\n\n2015年以前50年的时间，其主要特征是：（更加）自动化的流水线， 生产力：电子及IT，所以也被称为基于电脑和网络的知识信息革命\n\n\n第四次工业革命\n\n\n以大数据，人工智能，物联网等信息技术为基础的超连接革命。\n\n主要特征：智能化；生产力：物联网\n数据的广度，宽度，深度呈几何式增长，人类认识有了更深更广的数据基础。其中，广度只指以标签化描述数据更多特征；宽度是指数据类型除了量化数据，还包括了非结构化的图片，视频，文字等；深度是指通过知识图谱，形成了数据关系的认识网络。\n中国过去20年IT发展\n沿着如下这么一条路线\n\n信息化\n移动互联网化（每个人都在产生数据，过去10年）\n\n\n互联网=流量+内容+服务\n\n\n\n数据化（云计算，大数据–服务专业化，数据互联融合）\n\n数字化对企业的价值和意义\n\n聪明经营。先知先觉先行\n提升管理。提升内部管理和运转效率，简化流程降低耗时\n防范风险。风险分析前移，从财务数据，业务数据，行为数据，再借助人工智能精准监测分析，甚至微表情\n优化服务。服务庞大客户群，人力不可为，数字化能力7*24必不可少\n降低成本，取代人工\n\n\n\n\n智能化（数据的资源化，服务的智能化）\n\n\n人工智能的前进要素\n\n\n数据+算法+算力（能量）\n\n\n芯片+平台（PAAS+SAAS）+大数据（基础设施）\n\n\n平台有：视觉图像，NLP，预测 等\n从弱人工智能到强人工智能（因果推理），乐观看还需要20~30年的时间，或许算力的突破要突破硅基芯片，向碳基芯片或生物芯片要助力，从脑科学材料学方面借力启发\n\n人工智能想模拟人的听说读写，是一种交互形式的改变\n现在的机器智能是”大数据小任务“，如GPT-3有1750亿参数，使用上千GB的数据训练出来。如何让机器智能有人脑小样本学习的能力，动物的直觉能力及举一反三的能力，是面临的巨大挑战\n\n到了2022年12月，通用人机对话智能GPT3.5横空出世，让上面的时间推测掉进了垃圾堆\n人脑的模式\n\n人脑的运行速度慢过计算机1000万倍，但能耗低很多（整个人基础代谢大概相当于100w的灯泡，虽然大脑耗能占比较高）\n更像一个量子计算机，彼此之间相互联动，有很多捷径，不像当前的电脑是一个固定的程序，多核并行度要弱于人脑\n人类先天打造了一个包含大量神经元的熵极高的初始化状态–出生的婴儿有大量神经元且之间有大量的连接，伴随着成长，很多连接消失，有价值的连接不断强化，熵变得越来越低，大脑中变得越来越有序，也变得越来越固执\n我们的记忆也是不断以熵最小化的形式组织及重构，换种说法我们总在找最低存储代价的特征抽取方案，仿佛有一个关乎存储代价的惩罚函数在不断指导算法的更新\n\n人脑的配置就像：量子CPU+超级显卡+小号运行内存+超级内存的组合\n\n这一切的结果来自于大自然的压力，人类的识别器必须执行更简单的运算，快速的进行反应\n\n新革命的形态\n\n互联网下半场的第一起跑者，摩拜单车\n\n10年内 硬件+软件形式重做一遍衣食住行；所有有传感器的，都可以看作新形态\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据","AI"]},{"title":"低生育陷阱","url":"/%E4%BD%8E%E7%94%9F%E8%82%B2%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1.html","content":"\n低生育陷阱\n七普的钟声\n\n过去10年中国人口的变化\n\n65岁以上定义为老年人口\n\n劳动年龄[15-64岁]人口相较于10年下降6%，占比68.6%（前值74.5%）,合计9.7亿人，相较于10年少了3000w。\n我国流动人口3.76亿人，相对于六普增加70%，显示出城镇经济活力提升，相当于每4个人中有一个流动人口，省内流动占大头（$2 \\over 3$）。2020年城镇化率63.9%，已看齐中等偏上收入国家平均线。\n调查显示2020年我国育龄妇女主 观生育意愿为1.8，低于代际更替率。主观生育意愿的降低一方面是经济社会发展中的自然现象，但我国1.3的总和生育率显著低于1.8的生育意愿，这方面有待于完善生育政策降低家庭面临的经济压力、时间压力和心理压力，保障女性就业合法权益，缩小生育水平与生育意愿之间的差距。\n\n育龄妇女[15-49岁]人数在 2011年达到约3.8亿的顶峰后持续减少，使2010年后出生人口直接进入下行区间。随着政策的（全面二孩）放开。在2016年、2017年出生人口大幅增长至1,883万和1,765万人，但随即掉头向下，二孩占比由2013年的30%左右升至2017年的50%左右。随着此前积累的存量释放，2018年以来出生人口回落，但出生人口中的二孩及 以上孩次占比在2019年仍高达59.5%，“二孩效应”放缓但仍在延续，使得2020年 0-14岁少儿人口占比较2010年回升1.4个百分点。\n截止到2023年，讨论最热烈的是1孩出生率，0.5，这个举世不是最低也是第二低的数字了，说明这个群体社会的确有病了。\n\n\n\n年份\n2015\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n\n\n\n\n出生人口（万）\n1655\n1883\n1765\n1523\n1456\n1202\n1062\n956\n902\n954\n\n\n死亡人口（万）\n975\n977\n986\n993\n998\n998\n1014\n1041\n1110\n1093\n\n\n净增加（万）\n680\n906\n779\n530\n458\n204\n48\n-85\n-208\n-139\n\n\n\n60 岁以上的老人首次破了3 亿大关，占总人口的 22%。60 年代和 70 年代的出生潮也意味着后面的死亡人口会继续攀升，死亡人口每年可能会飚到 1900 万，无声的人口地震，人口红利蜕变成养老压力，我们终将见证很多之前你不曾知道的历史。\n老龄化袭来\n\n随着第二波婴儿潮（63-）出生的人口逐步步入老年时期，劳动力作 为经济增长的重要生产要素之一，中国劳动年龄人口占比 将进一步下降，对宏观经济带来多方面影响。\n0-14占比18%，65岁以上占比13.5%。我们在人均GDP1万美金时就达到了日韩3w美金时的老龄化率，真所谓未富先老(65岁以上人口占比暂低于发达国家，日德法在20%开外，美英韩在20%以下，日本超级夸张，28%)。在老龄化增速方面，第一第二被韩中两国占据。\n\n到2030年，预计65岁以上人口占比触及20%，预计届时全国人口收缩到12.33亿。\n农村老龄化更严重\n在年轻人进城就业的整体趋势下，大量劳动年龄人口向城市迁移，使中国农村地区老龄化明显高于城市地区。2020年全国乡村地区60岁、65岁及以上老年人占总人口比重分别达到23.8%、17.7%，分别较城镇地区高约8个百分点和6.6个百分点。我国教育、就医等公共服务供给与户籍挂钩，加重了养老和育幼的负担。\n\n局势中的福地\n人口增长\n贵州、重庆两地人口较2010年分别增长11%，扭转了六普中下降的趋势。\n贵州在过去十年间生育率保持在较高水平，0-14岁人口占比高达24%，居全国第二；此外，贵州15-59岁人口较2010年增加188万，也是贵州人口增长的主要原因。贵州人口的增长与交通条件大幅改善有很大关系，加上大数据综合试验区的助力势头强劲。\n重庆已形成全球重要的电子信息产业集群，带动常住人口较2010年增长11%。随着成渝地区双城经济圈建设，长江经济带建设，还有集聚潜力。\n年轻态\n人口流入数量最多的广东地区，相比之下人口老龄 化并不显著，65岁以上人口的比重为8.7%，仅高于西藏的5.7%以及新疆的7.8%。\n\n劳动人口变化\n东部地区人口占全国近40%，中部占25.8%，西部占27.1%，东北占7%，与2010相比，东部地区占比上升2.2%，中部下降0.8%，西部上升0.2%，东北下降1.2%。\n劳动人口流动与区域经济发展速度，就业机会，自然环境，医疗教育等公共服务存在紧密联系。过去10年，东北劳动人口减少较为明显，广东，浙江，新疆，贵州，重庆，海南等劳动人口增长最多。\n\n新中国的人口观察\n\n新中国三次婴儿潮分别在建国初期、1962-1973年左右、 1986-1990年左右出现，有明显的周期性，第四次婴儿潮在计生政策的影响下并未在2010年左右出现。\ntimeline\n    title 中国人口增长节点\n    section 高速阶段\n    1981 : 10亿\n    1988 : 11亿\n    1995 : 12亿\n         : 98年12.48亿\n         : 世界人口21%\n    section 中速阶段\n    2005 : 13亿\n    section 低速阶段\n    2020 : 14亿\n代际人口数量\n\n90+00 的确比70+80少了1亿人，计生工作在70，80一代身上收效不错\n\n70后在接下来的10年也即将步入退休通道，加上60后的庞大基数，的确是一个庞大的退休群体。当80后再退场的时候，更是雪上加霜。后面的年轻人如果不赶上产业升级及我们跳出中等收入陷阱，真是难以想象退休人员过得是什么日子。\npie showData title 代际人口数(亿)\n    \"50前\" : 1.17\n    \"50后\" : 1.47\n    \"60后\" : 2.2\n    \"70后\" : 2\n    \"80后\" : 2.2\n    \"90后\" : 1.66\n    \"00后\" : 1.57\n    \"10后\" : 1.67\n\ngantt\n    title 以60断代-代际人口柱状对比图-markdown\n    dateFormat SSS\n    axisFormat %L\n    section 60前2.64亿\n        50前1.17亿: 000, 117\n        50后1.47亿:117,264\n    section 60+70共4.2亿\n        60后2.2亿:000,220\n        70后2亿:220,420\n    section 80+90共3.86亿\n        80后2.2亿:000,220\n        90后1.66亿:220,386\n    section 00后3.24亿\n        00后1.57亿:00,000,157\n        10后1.67亿:157,324\n\ngantt\n    title 以50断代-代际人口柱状对比图-markdown\n    dateFormat SSS\n    axisFormat %L\n    section 50前1.17亿\n        50前1.17亿: crit,done,000, 117\n    section 50+60共3.67亿\n        50后1.47亿:done,000,147\n        60后2.2亿:active,147,367\n    section 70+80共4.2亿\n        70后2亿:done,000,200\n        80后2.2亿:active,200,420\n    section 90+00共3.23亿\n        90后1.66亿:done,000,167\n        00后1.57亿:active,167,323\n    section 10后1.67亿\n        10后1.67亿:crit,active,000,167\n2030人口预测\n具体参见[1]\n\n预计到2030年\n\n65岁以上人口达到2.5亿规模，55-65的退休准退休年龄占到2.3亿规模【合计4.8亿，巨大的银发经济】\n0-14岁的占到2.3亿规模，-9%，\n25-35的1.67亿规模，相较于2020年下降的比较厉害，-26%。\n\n\n\n吹哨警醒\n中国难以走出低生育陷阱（尽可以参阅东亚的几个邻居），这里面有多方面的原因。也有人说低生育陷阱（自身强化）本身是个大忽悠，就如封面图有爬出来的国家，但中国现有低生育意愿是真实存在的，这样提完全没毛病。日韩这两位小哥确实跌进去现在还没爬出来，中国步其后尘，也有很大的近似风险。\n\n东亚难兄难弟\n\n东亚几个邻居的状况差不多，只不过韩国体量较小，相当于广东省，日本走得更早，体量也更大，对我们更有借鉴意义。但中国的幅员纵深及多样性非日本能比，所以中国在人口下降时所能做的挽救和努力空间稍大点，但个人因生活在城市中，不太看好。\n\n儒家文化下的隐忍，勤奋和内敛使东亚几国成为百年仅有的几个强国俱乐部后起之秀。但无一例外发力阶段用力过猛，导致一大堆后遗症。\n年轻人还奋斗不/日本的镜子\n\n日本搞工业的冲劲比中国过分的多，都不止是996了，每天干活18个小时。经济奇迹就是这么被搞出来的，好处是取得巨大的进展，毛病是奋斗狂成为管理层后天天跟年轻人扯当年的辉煌往事，说年轻一代都是废物，连当年一半努力都达不到，成功的把年轻人给吓废了。\n\n日本年轻人也不想去过当年的那种生活，甚至都觉得当初都那样奋斗了，还是迎来了大停滞，现在的奋斗又有什么意义呢。\n奋斗的动机\n奋斗这种事，是需要动机的，动机有两种\n\n对贫穷的恐惧，但不是谁/代阶群体 都有感受的\n另外一个就是对美好生活的向往，也不是所有人都向往。\n\n中日韩崛起的动机往往来自对”一无所有“的恐惧，战后一穷二白，努力摆脱悲惨境遇成了早期人的源动力，再苦也比住在瓦砾里强，再累想到今后会好起来，也就忍了。\n年轻一代缺乏悲惨经历，也就缺少对贫穷的恐惧，生活本来优渥，那么艰苦的奋斗到底是为了什么呢，反而对那种奋斗过程充满了恐惧，眼见父辈年轻时那么辛苦，到老了也没获得什么本质跃迁，社会的阶层固化是十分明显的，那继续一代代奋斗竞争，不如简单躺下来做个废物，当初父辈躺下那就会全家饿死，所以必须得起来干活，自己躺下也饿不死，反而能更快乐一些，为什么不呢？\n社会不孕症\n产业升级\n\n\n在非工业化时代，人口那是家庭资产。\n\n\n工业化/服务业逐步升级时代\n\n\n所需的技能要投入的教育较多。\n\n\n女性的就业机会也增多（农业偏重体力），生孩子势必影响工作。\n\n\n产业升级提出诉求高等教育比例提升。\n\n\n\n\n城市化\n东亚三国有个明显特点，大城市特别大，人多地少，搞超大城市又是效率最高的发展方式，落后（作为后起）国家没什么更好的选择了。这玩意好处和毛病都很明显，城市越大，人的幸福感就越差，可又没别的办法。\n城市化后的生活压力更大（城市的层级也比农村复杂100倍，一个公司都分很多层，不似农村族群中那般简单，公共资源也会依据优劣分出很多个等级，激烈的资源争夺，拼尽心力），教育竞争伴随也升级，房产支出也是一重大山。当今的时代社会薅赤贫线下-富豪线间的人的羊毛太厉害，可劲的薅，个人奋斗又艰难，养娃负债味道明显，对生活质量有影响。经济储备不行的对多生自然望而却步，晚生代替早生。晚育在代际上100年内可能就导致少一代人，其实影响是很巨大的。\n\n待高教育人群常期待的经济稳定，家庭稳定，能照顾小孩状态达成时，一般已熬到一个较大的晚育年纪，年纪越大做决定更审慎(针对养娃负债)\n\n\n现今社会对于普通人来说，养娃能投入社会的周期拉长，加之标准提高【贫富差距拉大】，养孩子属于投资，投资必然会抑制消费，两口子追求诗和远方的心态就会变化，报个兴趣班吧，花这个钱不心疼。教育是赤裸裸的军备竞赛，长达十几年，足把父母整个中青年全耗进去，消耗战想想都虚，愿意操盘的就少了。东亚家庭生几个孩子对父母的生活质量是决定性打击（城里人生孩子几乎要他们搭上所有的一切），干脆不玩了，生下来就得养，少生的趋势是自然趋势。\n\n高等教育的两面刃\n教育把生育年龄大幅往后延伸，且教育让所有人都痛苦不堪，绝大部分人读书的过程并不是什么愉快的体验，等到自己长大了，要生孩子了，想想就精神上打一哆嗦。\n女性受教育水平提高，也更关注个人独立的此生体验，不愿意多生多养。\n\n军备竞赛\n\n81年生的人，5%接受了本科教育，千分之八读了硕士，99年出生的人，23%的人都上了本科，3.5%读了硕士\n48%的家庭教育支出占了家庭支出的40%以上\n\n社会变革和女性觉醒\n女性社会地位提升是一个不容忽视的因素，随着女性主义思想的传播，越来越多的女性开始反思传统，婚姻制度中存在的不平等问题。且随着教育水平的提高和职业机会的增加，女性有了更多自主选择权，可通过工作获得经济独立不再依赖婚姻维持生活，因此许多女性选择推迟婚姻，甚至放弃婚姻，来追求事业和个人生活的自由。\n噫吁嚱\n这代人经历史上最快的现代化和城市化，翠花和狗蛋就成了写字楼里疲惫的mary和tony，悬殊的身份转换，还要尽快的成家立业，真的很不容易，时代的必然。\n\n从遗传学上看，你的后代越少，你投入的精力越大，你必须保证他成功，否则基因就断了。\n上一代人还没做好准备，孩子已经噼里啪啦就过去了，或者多了没有精力分配去管。\n\n婚姻是为了稳定社会关系发展和繁殖后代的产物，和人口及养老息息相关，结不结婚是个人选择，个人自由应该支持。但任何的自由都是有代价的。如果一项自由没有相对应的代价，那就说明我们的政策有问题。许多年轻人不愿意结婚，只是一种既定社会经济条件下的趋利避害。这就像一个游戏，运营不好慢慢就没人了。\n上一辈人把世界玩废，种的断子绝孙的因，自然得断子绝孙的果。年轻人人间清醒，直接不玩，不受束缚。N 年后的历史书，会轻飘飘的写到：我们走了一些弯路，于是很多人丢了命，很多人误了青春，很多了废了一生。\n人不愿意生育的根本是突然意识到自己好像不是人，意识到自己和那些取得成绩的人不是一个物种，突然认为自己可能是数字。生殖行为只是天性或者受到社会某种力量推动而完成的行为，他的生育是一个社会希望的结果，却跟自身无关。他认为这个阶段只会给自己生下下一个奴隶，这个奴隶一辈子也不会意识到自己在干什么，不仅不会改变自己的处境，且还会空泛的幻想自己有美好的未来，然后被他人所利用。进而消失生育的欲望，甚至认为这件事情意义不大。\n\n晚婚成为普遍现象，我国乡村25至29岁人群未婚率近5成，城市30岁人群未婚率超3成\n\n\n\n\n年龄\n城市\n镇\n乡村\n\n\n\n\n25-29\n56.9%\n44.6%\n47.4%\n\n\n25\n77%\n63.1%\n66.5%\n\n\n26\n67.4%\n56.1%\n54.6%\n\n\n27\n57.5%\n45.7%\n48.7%\n\n\n28\n48.6%\n36.1%\n39.2%\n\n\n29\n38.1%\n29%\n31.9%\n\n\n30-34\n20%\n14.1%\n19.3%\n\n\n30\n30.7%\n22%\n27.7%\n\n\n31\n26.3%\n17.8%\n24.4%\n\n\n32\n20.2%\n14.1%\n18.2%\n\n\n33\n14.6%\n10.6%\n15.3%\n\n\n34\n12.4%\n8.8%\n13.4%\n\n\n35-39\n8.3%\n5.9%\n9.4%\n\n\n35\n10.3%\n7.9%\n12%\n\n\n36\n9%\n7%\n9.9%\n\n\n37\n8.2%\n5.5%\n8.6%\n\n\n38\n7.0%\n4.6%\n8.1%\n\n\n39\n6.2%\n3.9%\n7.4%\n\n\n\n在东亚或我国里，生的少后，导致父母对孩子更想尽责，孩子的压力也同样山大。传统的孝道导致儿女（对下辈是父母）紧张，没有宗教信仰导致还是有一点点自私（在上帝面前还有一点点义务），低生育陷阱在中国不好爬出。\n\n欧美的一些反例：一批心理比较坚强独立的人（当然一般经济条件也过得去）甚至会表现出too much love，收养的小孩都不少。还是经济水平和随之而来的心理态度的影响，毕竟原生家庭状况对青少年的成长影响不容忽视。\n\n人性常态\n\n\n旧社会，很多女人宁当豪强妾，不做布衣妻。\n\n\n解放后成立了婚姻法，实行一夫一妻，目的就是让底层人的布衣都能找到媳妇。一段时间是解决了问题\n\n\n但刚过去几十年，现在乡镇光棍成堆，城市剩女成云。\n\n\n从春秋战国到现在，人性没有发生实质性改变。还是宁可当剩女，不做布衣妻，时代变了又变，但人性始终没变。\n经济使然\n婚姻制度存在的时间，远比你以为的要短。婚姻其实是个复杂的问题，里面感情反而最不重要，经济才是重点\n\n一个部落所有人紧密团结尚且捉襟见肘，把大家分割成两两组合的小家庭，不就更活不下去了？\n生产力的发展促成了婚姻的存在，相当于两个公司合股，这样就可以调动更多的资源，进一步发展生产力。这时的婚姻不是两个人的事情，而是两个家族的事情。\n近现代，虽然还叫婚姻，但又完全不是一回事了。\n\n现代婚姻制度强调自由恋爱，已经从原来两个家族的合股变成了两个人的合作，至少家族因素的占比已经大大降低。为什么能允许如此零散的组织形式出现？\n还是因为生产力进一步发展，两个人合作就可以生存和繁衍了，所以用不着其他人掺和，自己做主反而效率最高。\n时间来到当下，人们逐渐发现，这种两个人合作的模式也开始变得多余了。收入的提高，社会保障的健全，商品的极大丰富……这些都使得个人并不需要与任何人合作就可以过上舒服日子。既然日子可以过得舒服，那为什么还要去找一个人结婚？\n两个人的合作有沟通成本，一旦发现这种成本并无必要，人们自然要把它砍掉。婚姻对于满足生存而言成了负分，剩下唯一的维系就只是繁殖。人工授精甚至试管婴儿，都比婚姻的成本低得多。一位单身妈妈养育一个孩子的难度也不是无法承受。既然生存和繁衍都有了成本更低的解决方案，为什么还要结婚呢？\n纵观世界\n进入二十一世纪以来，婚姻制度就已经开始崩塌了，从发达国家开始，中国只是一个后来者。随着生产力的发展，这种趋势已经势不可挡。用不了多久，人类社会会演化出全新的组织形式，更加自由也更加无依无靠。作为社会性动物 ，人与人之间的交流并不只是单纯为了合作赚钱，交流本身也是刚需。\n\n\n\n国家\n30-34岁男性未婚比例\n30-34岁女性未婚比例\n数据年份\n\n\n\n\n意大利\n72.16%\n54.65%\n2020\n\n\n法国\n68.76%\n58.94%\n2017\n\n\n德国\n66.19%\n50.82%\n2020\n\n\n韩国\n55.83%\n37.53%\n2015\n\n\n英国\n54.90%\n44.13%\n2011\n\n\n日本\n44.74%\n33.59%\n2015\n\n\n美国\n43.19%\n33.14%\n2012\n\n\n加拿大\n37.56%\n27.98%\n2020\n\n\n中国\n18.16%\n8.70%\n2019\n\n\n\n\n中国大龄男性和女性未婚比例低于绝大多数发达国家，但也在直追而去\n\n当社会越来越原子化，人们需要一种新的组织形式来满足这种刚需。猜测这种组织不以利益为纽带，而是以兴趣为纽带。大家各自赚各自的钱，然后大家凑钱一块儿玩。\n自我淘汰\n\n20-29 岁单身男性比同龄女性多 2260w\n出自《中国统计年鉴2024》，2023 年抽样调查，中国未婚人数突破 2.34 亿（离异，丧偶不属于未婚）\n25-29 的适婚青年中，有一半尚未结婚\n\n剩男和剩女的错配，从空间上根本不在一个地方。剩女几乎都集中于一线城市，越下沉越少，剩男情况刚好相反，越下沉越多。\n\n上等男配了上等女\n中等男配了下等女\n因此下等男就没人要了。中等女则是高不成低不就。\n\n光棍，就是高不成低不就。男的是，女的也是。一辈子光棍和一辈子剩女，没有后代，他们身上的基因就会被淘汰，从这会角度来说，这是好事，这个世界只有懂得平衡理想和现实的人才有资格拥有后代，才有资格把身上的基因传宗接代下去，从生物进化角度来说，就是因为有这样那样的缺陷，比如性格缺陷，所以他们就应该被淘汰。\n国际婚姻\n如果想解决剩男问题，建议彻底开放国际婚姻，给国内剩男多一个出路。漂亮国也执行这样的策略，结婚发绿卡，也就是底层男性能变相给出彩礼。随着一带一路的发展，那里的女性都是中国男性的结婚对象，男多女少的问题是有解决办法的，中国男儿应志在四方。\n人口红利\n人口下降当然有坏处（人口结构），但也预示着一个更加尊重劳动者的时代（这才是更加健康更加长久的道路），说到底人口红利是谁的红利，作为供给侧的三大因素之一（劳动力，效率提高，资本）是“老板”的红利，而不是劳动者的红利。\n去欧美的人为什么不愿意回来，其实一个原因也是国内太卷了。不能太过习惯长期依赖压榨式的发展，初期底子弱没选择，到了一定程度，必须要做调整，马太效应+长期的奋斗也吓退一部分育龄的年轻人。也有人被压榨出斯德哥尔摩综合症了，总觉得不搞血汗工厂，中国经济就会垮塌。\n\n分配有问题，其实还是劳动阶层互相竞争，自己把价格打了下来。\n艰苦奋斗不是目的，目的是用一代的艰苦换取后来人不那么艰苦。\n\n人口红利固然有吸引力，但没人想自己的孩子生活在一个依赖人口红利的国家。这样的生活，经历一代人就够了。改善民生是最重要的最正义的。\n舍不得与当前的对策\n\n一句游戏行业的戏谑调侃：当一个游戏策划不行、氪金力度又大，我们一般是不会推荐新玩家入坑的。更要命的是，别人带新玩家入坑，多少有点福利（比如推荐奖励，师徒奖励）好家伙，这场游戏，你还要给新玩家挪一点本就不多，也不高级的装备\n\n生孩子的人过得很惨会使得中立区的人倒向不生，也看到政府想在这方面做点动作，又舍不得钱，因为它认为社会本身是分层的，投入过度了不是浪费么。政府看到的是入不敷出，看不到的是暂无法量化的群体痛苦。\n\n时代把红利发给依一些人，必然要以另一些人为代价。\n盛世的纸醉金迷，从来不是普通人的生活状态，那只是既得利益者的日常。就好像，我们的民国时期，自由，开放，才子佳人辈出。那是大地主，大军阀，大资本的好时代，却是无数个闰土的坏时代。\n\n生育观往往是长期的生活经历形成的，不是你几句话就能改变的，更不是仅靠宣传能搞定的。出生率是“沉默的大多数”给出的答案。\n政府先拿教培开刀，软柿子还没绑定金融风险，下一步就是找城市试点新加坡模式。房地产的杠杆已经养成，只能慢慢通过边调经济结构边等技术突破时间换空间来降。\n存地失人，人地皆失。存人失地，人地皆存。对一个国家而言，这笔买卖肯定是赚的。\n\n很多人有固定思维，觉得日本是泡沫破裂后，滑入失去的30年，才导致生育率降低。其实恰恰相反，早从70年代，日本告诉城镇化起，出生率就开始下滑，尤其在85-90年，所谓的黄金时期（基尼系数飙升），出生率下滑得最为厉害，简直要血崩。相反主动刺破泡沫后，日本的生育率下滑的趋势，还放缓了\n\n消费主义是精神思想\n工业化和大城市本身就带着避孕效果，这跟内里哲学消费主义是契合的，放弃繁衍后代（本身也是放弃储蓄和投资），放弃储蓄，好好消费，换取自己过得省心。此种消费主义观念种下去还没有洗脑逆转成功的先例。\n消费文明的十大性格\n\n东京大学经济学教授林周二在 1960 年代初提炼。日本那时在迈入万元美金时代的门槛边上\n\n\n用完即丢：如一百日元的打火机或时钟\n夸张使用：大颗的方糖，轻压即大量喷射的喷雾容器\n鼓励赠礼：情人节大拍卖，父亲节大拍卖\n鼓励收集：洋酒瓶或大全集画刊等\n配件产品：照相机的外拍皮套等\n制造入门机会：读书周或蛀牙防治日等\n单一功能化：专用维他命，一周七日换穿内裤等\n副用品化：第二个家或第二台车\n备用品化：备胎或灯泡等消耗品，摄影底片等可囤积品\n旧款式化：就算还能用，也要让消费者认为太旧了\n\n互联网揭开的绝望感\n互联网的透明化在这一波中起了很大的推手作用，因为穷不穷其实是个观念，当大家不觉得自己穷的时候就不那么穷了，原来不知道自己吃的是饲料（社会阶层一直都存在，只是以前不太知道，全靠想象。本来觉得自己过得还不错，一对比，发现自己是在生存线上徘徊），现在不少人直接崩溃了。让我们让看看这些让人认清阶层差距的金句，简直有毒。\n\n奋斗一辈子赶不上别人的起点\n你的努力在门第面前不堪一击\n免费玩家就是人民币玩家的道具\n龙生龙，凤生凤，劳动力的孩子还在劳动\n\n人对痛苦承受能力很强，但对精神上的无助和失去控制力的感觉很痛苦。很多人都甚至有点想删档卸载游戏的冲动或者干脆放弃了打怪升级，只想安安静静的做个废物，更别提再生一代受二茬苦了。米兰昆德拉从他的视角讲：生小孩的前提是，你已经证明了人生是快乐的。当有人发现自己深陷从小成绩、长大钞票、老了打针吃药的既定模式中，浑浑噩噩只是廉价劳动力而已时，自己的孩子竟然在重复自己的路，自然生育的意愿会下降。\n\n普通人可能是这样看的。不因自己没钱，还因别人太有钱。人与人之间的差距太大了，导致心理压力太大，人毕竟不患寡而患不均。父母那一辈毕竟大家都穷。没有钱，还看得见别人有钱人的生活，他自己都不乐意活着，哪有生育的欲望，这就是不仅二胎搞不上去，连一胎都在下滑的原因。\n起跑线不一样，有含金汤匙出生的，有纠结尿布还是尿片的，眼瞅着绝对会输的比赛，就没有人愿意投入精力去打，生孩子当做一个游戏，玩这个游戏的人就跟《绝地求生》在线人数一样，迅速暴跌。这不是重在参与的问题，参与的代价太大了，要赔上一代人甚至两代人的心血，赌注太大，胜算太低。\n完全丁克也没有那么多人敢，但生二胎还真没那么多人敢。\n\n房价是绝望感的一部分，而不是决定因素。鹤岗房子都地板价了，也没听说人口暴涨吧。\n新世代人群特征\n上一代的老者都会对新生辈们深感看不上，虽近现代的互联网有替年轻人不断上位的力量，但丝毫不影响每一代的年轻人们在成长阶段被冠以XX代的称谓，且多数在早期都是具有负面的含义，虽这些概念来自西方，迅速被善于学习的中国人移植套用，不乏常见于笔端。\nX时代\n1965-1980年出生的人，他们在80年代长大，是未知，迷茫的一代人\nY世代\n1980-1995年出生的人，经历了电脑和因特网的迅速普及，由此形成了与X世代截然不同的生活态度和价值观，他们大多自信、乐观、坦率、有主见，见识广\n Z世代\n1995-2010年出生的人，是数字时代的原住民，互联网和数码产品是他们与生俱来及日常生活的一部分。在技术革命推动下，Z世代生活方式发生了质的变化，他们性格更加独立，更加关注人生的体验感，同时也更加懂得去挖掘最好的价值和服务。会为自己的热爱倾注感情，表达，追逐自己所爱，但同时也拥有一颗理智之心，不容易被各种纷乱的信息所动摇，显得深思熟虑而有主见。\n据国家统计局2018年数据显示，Z世代约占我国人口的19%，他们同样赶上了中国经济腾飞的时期，物质生活富足，同样是互联网的原住民。\n人口与经济拐点\n2025-2035年的就业压力还是很大的，人口红利仍在。到2045年左右，计划生育实施前的人基本去世，中国人口构成趋于稳定。\n9000后是压力不小的一代人，都说人生发财靠康波，我们现在处在互联网周期的中后段，80年代开始由美国主导进入复苏期，90年东欧剧变全世界进入经济增长爆发期，2000年后中国是传导国进入扩散期，2535岁能卡在20002010年的人都是幸福的，也就是70年代生人，他们的黄金时间处在了世界经济的高速成长期中，中国巨富基本来自这个时间段。2015年后转入互联网周期的滞涨期，2020年后就是衰退期，黄金年龄卡在20202030年是悲催的。\n下个幸福窗口的人口应该是2025~2035年出生的人，再次遇到世界经济的成长期，同时叠加中国人口的下一个合理期。从30年开始将进入新康波复苏期：\n\n复苏期基本没钱赚，好在危机后人类的预期会下降\n爆发期则会产生新的世界巨富\n扩散期会出现国家级富豪\n滞涨期只能出现炒房炒股的金融富豪\n衰退期基本前面三个都要跪。\n\n95~05年出生的人想扬眉吐气急不得，先要熬过这个时期，身体健康是首要任务，否则机会到时候出现了你都没力气捡。\n躺平\n躺平换个词也可以叫做非暴力不合作，但其实是躺平不了的，生活不会因为你躺平就不找你麻烦，日本的平成废柴是因为其父辈没躺平，人均GDP在哪里。\n躺平的解读\n社会资源的不平衡配置导致社会躺平现象的出现（躺赢的太多），躺平其实是社会发展规律中的环节（阶段的一种必然），对于社会分层和变革还是会产生巨大影响。\n\n从某种层度上，各个国家都出现过躺平阶段，包括美国的嬉皮士年代你可以看作是躺平的一种（make love not war），还是深刻影响了美国过往几十年的历史。美丽国享受全球化高潮后当前的撕裂及对应的对外对内政策，其实也蕴含着底层新的躺平对政策和局势的影响。\n\n我国由计划迈入市场经济是一场巨大的能量释放，不过也从一个极端走向了另一个极端 (市场经济的底层是竞争，本质是资源不足)，通过市场经济运动，阶层重新划定。当前发展到与世界接轨的大高潮，学的太像，没理由你万花丛中过，就片叶不沾身，该染的麻烦少不了，就得有法治。\n在柏拉图理想国的三等论中，设想了三种阶层：情绪欲望主导型，平头百姓大多是这类（群演，劳动者），意志主导型（主演，靠品牌；有组织，军人；），理性智慧主导型（导演制片编剧，配置资源，形成结构性短缺; 顶层，制定规则）。在中产阶级陷阱这个节点上，出现底层躺平，也是一种阶层的抗争，影响不了顶层的人，最大的伤害还是小老板小中产，靠命运运气挣来的钱可能凭本事再输出去，导致社会阶层重新分配，重新划分。这也要看躺平的人能不能形成一种新的意志和理性（互联网倒是一种推手力）。\n中等收入陷阱冲突期\n躺平出现在出现在中等收入陷阱这个时点上，其实也是有一定的原因的，迈到这个节点，原来的发展模式势必已到强弩之末，随之而来的社会精神也与贫穷起始点有很大的不一样，君可见每一个国家在迈入万元美金时代（中等收入陷阱）时，都免不了面对大量的国内冲突转型。\n\n举例来说现有的发达国家在中等收入阶段遭遇的问题，是由传统的垄断资本主义向福利资本主义的社会转型，前期的经济高速增长使得原始资本主义的弊端暴露无遗，经济周期轮回，政治腐败，社会矛盾尖锐，冲突加剧等问题集中凸显。在变革基础上实现市场，国家与社会之间的良性互动制度，其实质是政治现代化为核心的社会转型。\n但东亚的几个国家和西方还是有所不同，其中日韩的财阀垄断性显得更加固化，过往的发达国家转型期也还没有互联网，互联网的信息流动也是新形态，真正能破局还是靠产业升级迈过这道坎，但社会改良是个保健因素。不能转型成福利资本主义或许就等价迈不出这个坎儿了（歇菜）。\n\n在此方面，有两篇文章值得一看\n\n美国当年如何跨过中等收入陷阱\n人均GDP1万美金时都发生了什么\n\n网络上这些天关于这个议题，热闹非凡，但三观正的态度是：\n\n愿意躺平的躺平，愿意站着的站着，愿意攀登的攀登，就是不跪\n\n养老\n在祖传智慧中『养儿防老』是最实际的选择，年轻人未曾老过，所以对养老没有足够的认识，老人真如同孩子一样，需要各种照顾。现在各种看起来很美好的养老方案，其实都不如养儿防老。你想着你不婚，让别人来给你服务，也是一种理想化。养老服务供不应求，年轻人奇货可居，人工智能赡养可能还有些遥远，就算人工智能陪护出来了，从突破性创造到批量化大规模生产的商业化运用，还有一段不断降成本的漫长道路。\n更重要的是这个世界不允许那些不承担家庭和生育责任的人拥有美好的晚年，因为只赚钱不养育这是动摇国家存在根基的，繁衍规模，社会人口是整体进化和迭代是和社会产业升级间匹配的。所以不可能出现单纯有钱就能很好养老的环境这种现象。因为这个世界任何国家都不会允许“你只安心赚钱而不承担社会责任”，这是这个世界上集体的意志和人心不允许。你年轻时爽的一批，不用带小孩，晚年还能过得比我们好，这件事情在社会制度设置上一定会被杜绝。\n生孩子的赔率游戏\n2020年儿童节前一天，计划生育三胎放开了，网络上又是一片热议。大家多数觉得此政策没什么用。对于顶层的人，社会抚养费并不是他们担心的，确实没什么利好意义。但对于底层的人，这个政策还是有促进作用的。毕竟过去的一年里，二孩的出生量是远大于一孩的，正所谓让底层有生育冲动的人不至于受到掣肘。\n生三胎这事，其实在国家的大数据里，就没指望城市人群或中产（中产连一胎都不想生），是互联网的人以为自己是主角的自嗨，好像这个政策是给自己看的，包括配套措施是要为自己设的，天真，在大数据面前，so naive\n\n生二胎排名前十的基本是中西，西南部省份，偏远地区二胎数妥妥超过大城市。中间指望不上，希望都在头尾。\n\n头部不消多说，他们一直愿意多生，这对他们来说是一个赢面更大的赔率游戏。中产生一个败家子，老底都能赔光，富人不用担心，假如出一两个人才，不但能传承财富，还能开疆拓土。\n你去看看江南士族的族谱，在富不过三代的规律下，那些富过很多代的江南大族是如何实现的？其实就是多生孩子，注重培养，每一代都能出一些政商人才，靠宗族血缘相互扶持，保证家族绵延不绝。\n\n韩国曾经也实施过计划生育，当前统计显示韩国有孩子家庭31%两个孩子，14%三个孩子，但是全国合计生育率0.98，全球最低，唯一生育率不足1。（日本也是一种类型，生三孩的家庭和生一孩的家庭一样多，问题是有近30%的人选择不生或不婚）\n6成年轻人没能力生，sigh。负面影响是没有穷二代来伺候有钱人，开出的解药是移民，不给同等国民待遇，榨干了哪来哪去。\n韩国最有经济条件的人口基数扩大了，达尔文主义的物竞天择。家族企业的合法继承问题也迎刃而解，生的多，独生碰到废柴的风险也冲销下降，摆脱外来职业经理人对企业的控制。\n\n偏远地区还有重男轻女的思想，且小地方人口流失，公立学校都招不满学生，职场压力没那么大，生三胎的组里较小。农村多生孩子其实也是赔率游戏，赢面虽不大（其实还是上升了），但万一出了人才，一大家子可以跟着脱贫，基本来说不会变的更差。\n人类种群的混沌自限\n低生育是全球的命题，不搞计划生育作业不多的国度也比之前差，蓝星合计生育率风雨无阻下降了60年。全球大概在2050-2100年间的某一年，降到更替率之下。80年后，5条人还剩2条半，每个楼上的窗口都只有1半亮起，幼儿园空养老院满。明明这60年是人类历史上条件最优越的60年。\n老生常谈将生育率下降归结为2类原因：一种是社会性的，如竞争压力、妇女权利、社会稳定程度等；一种是自然性的，如化石燃料带来的副作用。听起来都有道理，看多了它们的材料仿佛觉得它们也是在盲人摸象。人口是一个巨大的混沌问题（非线性系统），不是那么因果直接，冥冥中或许蓝星有一个总人口天花板，具体表现为生产能力、组织能力、繁衍能力 三者到了一定程度就不会一并增长了，一个增长必然伴随着另一个的倒退。好比一个公司的管理水平、业务水平、人才规模，总会有一个是短板。\n人类族群体现出自限性的一系列症状，如莫名的战争，精子数量下降，新冠疫情。只是我们很容易将这些症状误以为原因。当人口触顶之后，除非有巨大的改变，如星际殖民或基因工程之类的，否则就难有转折，采访中马斯克提及他很担心人口这个重大本质问题，不可不说英雄眼光犀利独到。\n老鼠乌托邦&quot;行为沉沦&quot;\n在1960年代发起过一则25号宇宙实验，以小白鼠为实验动物，到实验终止仍不缺吃不缺喝的乌托邦环境崩坏，白鼠种群灭亡。社会欲望的不断丧失是实验得出的核心病症，竞争后期，所有失败的白鼠聚焦在中央，失去了斗争的能力，阶级固化严重。\n处在斗争边缘的白鼠没有力量获得竞争的胜利，无法获得任何社会资源（领地，交配权，优先权，地位等），就算实验人员能提供充足的生存资源，但社会资源无法均分，也无法控制，它们不断失去欲望，形成越来越大的失败者群体，压制欲望造成的性格的不断扭曲，出现越来越多的同性恋，只关注吃饭喝水睡觉梳毛，每天把自己打理的油光水滑。母鼠受到霸占压迫也没有公鼠保护，变得暴躁，无法同时照顾幼崽和守护巢穴，侵略性大增，甚至伤害幼崽。畸形的社会阴暗面，就是欲望受到压制的一种具体表现。这和我们当今社会，低婚育面临的问题也有一致的味道。\n结婚率下降的本质，是社会资源的分配出了问题，越来越多人无法从社会资源分配上得到公平公正的对待，就会有越来越多人选择阉割掉自己的社会欲望，而极低的社会欲望就伴随着极低的婚育率。\n中国宏观政策的钟摆正在迅速从追求效率摆向追求公平，只有社会资源分配公正透明，才是解决婚姻，人口，乃至社会问题的核心。\n普通人该有的生养觉悟\n主线游戏\n人来到这个世界到底是干啥的？绝大部分人只有两主线任务，给父母送终，把孩子养大。除了主线任务，还有无数小任务，如跑图开荒，玩玩其它副本，或者打怪升级赚金币升装备，不过这些支线任务深层来讲也是为上面两主线任务服务的。\n人生这个游戏是氪金游戏，会相对容易一丢丢，但也没容易哪里去，有钱人也会被自己的孩子折磨的不要不要的。若是装备差，金币少，还手残，这个游戏会难到你怀疑人生，现实里绝大部分人也的确在怀疑人生。一旦主线任务完成，很多人还会有茫然无措的感觉，曾经想做的事情也变得索然无味，从基因角度看，你有了后代，且后代已确认存活，这幅躯壳可能在基因的眼里，已经没有意义了。这也是绝大部分人到了 40 多变得没有了任何爱好，或者开始偏爱动作幅度较小，低功耗的东西，盘串钓鱼养鱼喝茶，不生孩子的话就是主线任务提前结束一个，人生的游戏难度一下子就降下来了。\n这样就有很多时间在这个地图上瞎溜达，初期这样很爽，可以玩的东西很多。到了40岁左右，慢慢该玩的也玩过了，很多男性出现了类似电子阳痿的症状，女性化妆旅游可能也没兴趣了。年轻时你有很多朋友，大家聚一起分外快乐，到了一定年龄大家慢慢也孤岛化了，都在操心自己的一亩三分地，互相联系也少了。约有事，聚变难。丁克到后来的普遍态度就是无聊，孩子的人生各个阶段就是你的 boss 关卡，让你痛苦，也让你有了探索感和成就感。去掉了孩子，相当于这个游戏难度凭空下降一大截，问题是如果一个游戏太简单也没啥 boss，那玩的就没啥意思了。生活变成一个大围城。\n穷人的难处\n生孩子的确会大幅提升无法消解的必须支出，这无需回避。穷人没装备金币碰到事情只能是硬抗，游戏体验要差太多，所以很多穷人家庭都是鸡飞狗跳的，尤其很多父母，压力大，挣钱少，回家后精疲力尽，对孩子自然没耐心，动不动打骂，这些孩子长大后普遍有点问题，容易陷入失败主义情绪，现在坚定不生孩子的人很多都出身贫困家庭，家庭生活对他们来说没啥好印象，纯粹是各种抱怨，语言暴力羞辱\n。\n另外，全社会都在激进地想跨越阶级，其实这是个零和博弈，90%的人最后只能吃到时代红利，智商，精力，知识水平，都不足以让自己大幅超越别人，这种情况拼命想跨越本身就是一种自我折磨，有些人觉得自己孩子应该跨越不了，所以不应带到这个世界上来，还有一些人单纯就是太想进步，往死里折腾孩子和自己，可孩子和自己一样，都是普通人，逼也没进展，代际冲突也逐步增大。目睹自己原生家庭对自己的摧残和身边人婚后的鸡飞狗跳，所以孕育越来越多不婚/不生主义者。\n最痛苦的一批就是对孩子的期望严重超过自己本来水平的人，天赋一般还使劲报课，条件普通还总想给孩子最好的，又是花钱长见识，又是各种兴趣班。\n时代对待普通人进步了\n几十年前大家都很穷，所有人都得使劲往上爬，爬慢了人生就掉坑里了，现在社会逐步走向正轨，不出头也没那么难，绝大部分好东西都能找到平替，各种传统贵重东西价格都被打下来了，贵的东西大家偶尔体验一下也都有机会，很多东西也彻底平权了，你跟富豪用的苹果手机也是一样的。孩子学习不好，不好就不好呗，反正绝大多数人都不好，这也是排位赛这种零和博弈的必然结果，现在大家都摊上好时代了，没必要那么焦虑。放下焦虑，重新看这个世界，其实也就那样。尽量去顺其自然，不去折腾远远超过自己能力的东西，痛苦感会少太多，顿觉天地宽。\n生育不在于该不该，而是能否看清人生这个游戏的于自己的真实难度，能否接受并管理好养育孩子可能带来的巨大挑战，是否在为虚幻的目标徒增痛苦呢，比如强迫阶级跃升，总是盯着自己根本达不到的目标，用自己做不到的事情来折磨自己，陷入各种消费陷阱而不自知，财务状态一塌糊涂。绝大多数都是观念上的痛苦，找到内心的平静最重要，过好自己的人生版本。\n信息终是越辨越明！\n如题\n参考信息\n1.毕马威 从七普看中国人口变化的趋势和机遇 ↩2.网易 完整的“七普”人口数据，终于来了！  ↩3.知乎 预测2100年中国会有多少人口 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["灰犀牛"]},{"title":"你的灯亮着吗","url":"/%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%81%AF%E4%BA%AE%E7%9D%80%E5%90%97.html","content":"\n\n整本书中有很多故事举例，本就为问题解决者所写，薄薄一本，通透练达，没看这本书的时候总奇怪到底为什么取这个书名，看看故事就明白了\n\n引子故事\n问题\n瑞士日内瓦湖上的山脉中，建成了很长的汽车隧道，从隧道东出口再往400米，就是世界上风景最优美的俯瞰日内瓦湖的度假胜地，每天都有成千上万的游客在此处欣赏美景，同时，每天当着几百名神清气爽的游客返回他们的汽车时，都会有十来个（甚至更多）的人们收到一份意外的惊喜：汽车也跟着放松了（电池没电了）——因为他们在放松之余，忘记关掉车灯！\n解决者出场\n怎么着？只能打911，叫交警过来帮忙呗。为此，游客们这愉快的心情都瞬间化为乌有，“去了日内瓦湖，车都开不走了”。谁让你这么设计的，锅工程师你扛了吧！经过一系列的调研，工程师想出了N个他认为可行的办法来：\n\n\n可以在尽头挂一块牌，写上：关掉车灯。然而，如果夜间行走的人也关掉车灯，这样真的好吗？\n\n\n他可以装傻，啥也不知道，就让这些“意外”继续上演。然而，这样差评更多，到问责的时候，就会背上“豆腐渣工程”的骂名！\n\n\n他可以在风景俯瞰处建一个充电桩，但是这要不要成本的？还有就是充电桩出故障时，挨骂挨得更多呢！\n\n\n他可以把充电桩承包给私人，然后人家开起小卖部来，什么臭豆腐、黄酒奶茶、茴香豆都在卖起来，还拉动GDP增长呢！但是，这样景区就变成了商业化，游客们的体验更糟糕了。\n\n\n他在隧道尽头挂一块牌即可。想来想去，还是这个办法最靠谱！\n\n\n解决方案出场\n\n这张牌写什么内容比较好呢？咱们来一段简约的提示吧：（对于计算机来说，即使是再微小的一步也必须用琐碎的细节表示出来）\n\n\n如果这是白天，并且如果您的车灯开着，那么请熄灭车灯；\n\n\n如果天色已晚，并且如果您的车灯没开，那么请打开车灯；\n\n\n如果这是白天，并且如果您的车灯没开，那么就不用打开；\n\n\n如果天色已晚，并且如果您的车灯开着，那么就不用关灯。\n\n\n各位读者，你看蒙了吗？如果这张牌挂在隧道口提醒司机们，他们的时速至少60，如果盯着这个指示牌来看，读完这个指示牌，汽车早就飞过护栏，并且咕噜咕噜地沉到湖底了——这根本没办法实质性解决问题！还可以做得更好一点吗？\n作为一个老司机，他们能通过考试，并且久经各种路况的考验，就不可能是彻头彻尾的傻瓜，他们所需要的，只是隧道尽头加一块牌，写上几个字：\n“你的灯亮着吗？“\n如果他们连理解这种提醒的能力都没有，那么他们遇到的问题就不只是电池没电这么简单了。一个小小的标牌，就完美的解决了这个问题。因为这条信息足够短，所以标牌上可以用多种语言表达出来，包括英文、法文、德文、中文……\nAfter 故事\n引子故事有点长，结合书里的其它一众故事引申出来的道理才是书本的核心。\n面对问题不要迷路\n\n\n不要把人们的解决方法认为是问题的定义。\n\n\n每一种解决方法都会带来新问题。\n\n\n问题最难处理的那一部分恰恰是去意识到它们的存在。\n\n\n或许还可以改变问题的表述来获得不同的解决办法。\n\n\n当你沉迷于寻找问题定义和解决方法时，不要忘记随时都回头看看，看看自己是不是已经迷路了。\n\n\n与世界上其它动物相比，人类恐怕是最多变的。可惜我们碰到的绝大多数问题都离不开这种动物，甚至往往都是源于这种动物。他们不止多变，还多疑，自私，自以为是。\n正视问题\n在这个时候，大师提醒我们：\n1.当别人能很好的解决自己的问题的时候，千万不要越俎代庖（如果这是他们的麻烦，就让它成为他们的麻烦。）\n2.当某人能解决这个问题，但他本人却不会碰到这个问题时，你要做的第一件事情就是让他也感受到这一问题\n3.不管看上去如何，很少人知道知道他要什么，直到你给了他们所想要的东西（参看Make it Worse）\n4.甚至，事实上，没多少人真希望他的问题被解决\n缺经验的解决者怎么干？\n那些没有经验的问题解决者们，几乎无一例外，都是去匆忙的寻找解决办法，而不是去给要解决的问题下定义。\n即使是有经验的解决者，在社会压力要求他匆忙做决定的时候，也很容易屈服。这样，他们会找到很多解决办法，但未必适合手头这个问题，当一个人努力让别人接受他赞成的解决办法时，总是指责别人太顽固，而不是说对方的观点其实是可以替代的\n经验可贵，常识无价\n如果对问题没有一定的常识，那么解决办法几乎毫无疑问不是针对这一被误解的问题。通常，它就变成那个声音最高或口才最好的人所认为的问题的解决方案了，或者，是那个最有钱的人的认为的问题了。\n让问题起舞\n在某些时候某些人期望的是尽量去减少抱怨，犹如房东。如果抱怨永远不被统计出来，而仅仅是对着空气嘟囔，他也许可以通过不理睬来解决他的问题，鬼知道呢，他或许认为这本就是一个无中生有的问题。\nMake it Worse\n有时候如果你想找到一个问题的解决办法，试试“让情况变得更糟”，这个不好理解，我们可以从这个角度看待这句话，给你一个角度看当前的问题是不是真正的问题。犹如，例子中，有人在镜子上涂鸦，有人抱怨的问题。其实并不是乱涂乱画的问题，是拙劣和没有想象力的绘画的问题，停下来照镜子和停下来欣赏涂鸦并没有区别，只要他们不觉得乏味，时间过得慢就行\n尾声\n给问题下一个哲学定义\n问题其实就是你期望的东西和你体验的东西之间的差别。要么改变期望，要么改变体验。\n作者的感触\n解决问题不会是一个道德上中立的的行为，所以首先对自己要真诚。This above all, to thine own self be true [from 莎士比亚之哈姆雷特]\n如果在对技术的使用和构建过程中没有赋予足够的人文方面的重视，技术将毫无价值，甚至是危险的（technology is worthless even dangerous if we don’t pay attention to the human aspects of both its use and its onstruction）\n还有一些摘录，如作序者的骚柔，作者的人际警言，觉得已不再符合自己2020年时的胃口，想回顾看传送门在此\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["方法论"]},{"title":"保险业的监管与改革","url":"/%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E4%B8%8E%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9.html","content":"\n保险业的监管\n代理人模式怎么玩？\n新代理头两个月，可通过自保和近保完成考核目标，然后后续的业务开展仍然很艰难，无论是短期获取陌生客户的信任，还是熟练掌握销售的心理和技巧，都非一日之功。\n怪圈：增员即销售\n相较于保险业务的难开展，增员似乎变成更简单更稳定的赚钱方式。保险公司的招聘策略堪称”完美犯罪“，不断招收新人，即使你只待了一个月，也可能为公司带来几单生意，没有底薪，一进一出，公司稳赚不赔，留下来的人往往成为招募新人的主力军。”看，我就是从底层爬上来的！你也可以“，传销式的激励，让整个系统像滚雪球一样越滚越大。\n新代理人被吸引入职是看中保险未来发展空间大，前端业务容易开展，但实际入职后发现前端业务开展并不容易，因此多数代理人都将增员并入自己的工作范畴，甚至有的代理人不做保险经纪业务而专门做增员工作。\n困顿\n\n上升飞轮\n随着代理人数量激增，保险下沉速度随之加快，业务逐渐达到阶段性瓶颈。\n下降飞轮\n保险姓保–人均产能下降\n市场主流产品回归到了重疾医疗等保障产品，这类产品的销售非常考验代理人的基本功，导致人均件数下降。人均产能下降，这意味着代理人收入的下降。\n成长周期长–其它行业抢人\n在快递和外卖行业，新人只要努力，是可以快速实现月入过万的，但在保险业非常困难。缘故转化完之后，没有新客户来源，收入就很难维持。这就是来自其它行业的人力竞争。\n为何代理人选择离开？过去5年，代理人的平均月工资为3500元，仅为社会平均工资的78%。要知道，同期快递员的平均工资从4500元涨到6000元，代理人宁愿去送外卖、跑快递，也不想卖保险了。《中国保险中介市场生态白皮书》显示，月收入在1万元以下的保险营销员占比超过了61.5%。其中，月收入在3001元-6000元的保险营销员占比最高，达到了26.42%。当时代的列车撞倒你的时候，是不会和你说一声对不起的。\n\n增员受阻\n同时，各大招聘网站加强了对于保险代理人的监管，禁止代理人以个人名义展开招聘，增员难度骤增，发展团队也没那么挣钱了（增员有1000-2000元增员奖励），代理人陆续选择离职。\n不仅代理人数量在减少，代理人活动率（当月出单代理人占比）也在持续下滑。全行业基本都是类似的趋势。\n代理人加速离职同时带来保单继续率下滑，13个月还是25个月的保单继续率还在持续下滑。对保险公司而言，长险保单前两年是不挣钱的，退保伤害很大，13/25保单继续率表明新保单续期质量。正常情况下，保单继续率会维持在90%左右，平安的保单继续率近三年持续下滑，与代理人离职时将自己凑业绩的“自保件”退掉有关。\n\n在跟保险机构多次交流中经常陷入增员话题，可发现，整个行业需要一次大改革，大洗牌，在一些思路上要有大转变，代理人自身也是迷茫的。\n\n宏观数据分析\n寿险的真实客观主客群体0-50岁，国内50岁以下人群在下滑态势中。\n寿险潜在客户阶段性饱和，突破需配合宏观经济。保守估计，近5年做过寿险代理人的人群达到5000w。假设向周边10个人推销过保险，那么至少有5亿人接触过保险产品或理念。开拓新客户的难度自然不小。房贷很高没有多余的钱买保险，个人及家庭收入未能如预期增长，寿险在受众支出决策的优先级必定越发靠后。\n\n2014年代理人数量325w人，5年后的2019年，这个数字来到912w，达到顶峰。在保险代理人飙升的时间里，从2013到2020年，个人保险保费收入同比增长217.2%，任何事物都有周期，根据《2024中国保险发展报告》，截至2023年底，代理人数量已减至281.34w，相比2019年下降了69%。超过600w代理人，离开了这个行业，结合流动，实际洗牌的更多点。\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"个人代理人数量（万）\"\n    x-axis [2014,2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023]\n    y-axis \"数量 (w)\" 0 --> 1000\n    bar [325,471, 657, 807, 871, 912, 843, 591, 571, 281]\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"个人代理人数量波动率\"\n    x-axis [2014,2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023]\n    y-axis \"变化率\" -60 --> 60\n    line [12.1,44.9, 39.6, 22.8, 7.9, 4.7, -7.6, -29.9, -3.4, -50.7]\n寒风\n保险行业经历大洗牌，多家险企裁员超7万人，平安减员最多。\n在2024基金，券商，银行纷纷降薪的当口，保险行业薪酬结构相对稳定，很重要的原因，是保险行业员工收入大部分来自提成。保险行业躲过了降薪，却躲不过缩编。2023年7家上市险企合计在职员工76.21w，较22年减少超7w人，同比下降8.59%。此中最突出的是平安，2023年在职员工28.88w（业态多元，不仅含保险子公司的员工），相较22年34.42w下降16.12%，减员达5.5w人。按报告解读，减员最多的是科技类业务员工，其次是保险业务类员工。2018年平安保险类业务在职员工数量为23.28w，到了2023年已变成15.15w，五年下降了8.13w人。\n\n平安集团员工变化（2022~2023）\n\n\n\n\n分类\n2022\n2023\n人员变化\n\n\n\n\n保险类员工\n170053\n\n-18569\n\n\n银行类\n\n43119\n-1088\n\n\n资管类\n19651\n18833\n-818\n\n\n科技类\n93680\n\n\n\n\n其它员工\n16632\n19886\n+3254\n\n\n\n代理人流失\n截至2024年7.1日，共有848家保险分支机构退出市场。其中，人身险公司新设36家分支机构，退出520家，净退出484家。\n截至23年底，平安寿险及健康险月均代理人数量为35.6w，同比下降26%；个人寿险代理人34.7w，同比下降22%\n目光回看2018年，平安寿险代理人规模高达141.74w，如今已减少75%以上\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            titleColor: \"#ff0000\"\n---\n xychart-beta\n    title \"平安人寿个人代理人数量（万）\"\n    x-axis [2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023]\n    y-axis \"数量 (w)\" 0 --> 150\n    bar [86.99, 111.08, 138.6, 141.74, 116.69, 102.38, 60.03, 44.5, 34.7]\n    line [86.99, 111.08, 138.6, 141.74, 116.69, 102.38, 60.03, 44.5, 34.7]\n营运利润下降\n还是以平安举例，在投资方面，保险资金投资组合规模超过4.72w亿，2023年增长了9%，但报告期内寿险及健康险业务短期投资波动扣亏了343亿。这些投资的底层资产，无论是楼市还是股市，都不是好打的牌。结合全国经济的增长率和人口状况，虽23保费6019.34亿还增长了10.85%，但寿险及健康险的营运利润1060.83亿，相较于2022年下降了3.4%，净利润733.91亿，下降2.8%\n从金融数据看\n\n\n\n项目\n2023年上半年（单位亿元）\n2024年上半年（单位亿元）\n变化率\n\n\n\n\n保险保费收入\n32054   收入相较22年同比增长12.54%\n35467\n4.9%\n\n\n财产险\n7206\n7442\n4.5%\n\n\n人身险\n24848\n28025\n5.1%\n\n\n保险赔付支出\n9151   支出相较22年同比增长17.8%\n12301\n33.1%\n\n\n财产险\n4103\n4500\n10.2%\n\n\n人身险\n5048\n7801\n57.4%\n\n\n\n从资金运用情况看，无论是财产险还是人身险，资金运用余额的最大头都是债券，在38%到48%之间，在股票上的直接投入都控制在6%~8%之间，24年中都是6.x%，整体年化财务投资收益率都已经跌到了2字头，不超过3%。\n收入增速和赔付增速的剪刀差\n这种情况已经持续一段时间，这个趋势在23年已经有所显现，23年保费收入5.12万亿，同步增长9.13%，赔付支出1.89万亿，同比增长21.94%。进入24年更为明显。前3个月赔付支出增长47.8%，虽增速有所降低，但一直保持在高位。赔付快速增长主要出现在人身险领域。前4个月人身险赔付支出增长68%，财产险赔付支出增长13%\n为何赔付支出会快速增长？\n\n2013年我国开启寿险费率市场化改革，引发寿险保费快速增长，而我国首先保单平均期限在十年左右，意味着当初快速增长的首先保单将会集中在近几年内到期\n应激管理部公布的数据，一季度自然灾害造成的直接经济损失为近五年之最，也会影响人身险领域的赔付支出，但不会是主因\n进入2024年，5年期以上两全保险部分到期，增额终身寿险等理财保险的”存款搬家“，也造成不少赔付增加\n疫情后医疗健康费用的增加，连带保险赔付增长。中国人寿总经算师竟然甩锅到一季度支原体流感季新冠对呼吸道感染的影响，尤其是儿童作为被保险人群体，还甩锅过度医疗，显然是掩盖真相，避免形成羊群效应\n\n这种剪刀差会持续多久？\n\n财产险赔付变化主要受到保险事故，特别是重大事故和灾害的影响\n人身险特别是寿险，过去业务高增长带来的当前赔付快速增长短期难以改变，恐怕还要持续一段时间，最少未来1~2年还将保持在较高水平，将无疑增加经营压力影响现金流，一部分也能印证为何23年平安的经营利润下滑\n\n财产险和人身险的销售比\n\n金融监管总局的数据表，总额方面，相互有些对不上。让人质疑他们表哥表姐的专业水平\n\n\n\n\n财险项目\n2024年上半年（单位亿元）\n人身险项目\n2024年上半年（单位亿元）\n\n\n\n\n财产险保费收入\n9176\n财产险保费收入\n26291\n\n\n机动车\n4311\n寿险\n21454\n\n\n责任险\n771  保险金额的大头确在这里\n意外险\n230\n\n\n农业保险\n1063\n健康险\n4607\n\n\n健康险\n1475\n\n\n\n\n意外险\n259\n\n\n\n\n其它\n1297\n\n\n\n\n\n各省的规模潜力\n\n24.9 月切片看，合计 1000 亿以上的省份和地区[3]，广东数据中摘掉未含深圳\n\n\n\n\n\n地区\n合计（亿）\n寿险\n财险\n健康险\n\n\n\n\n1\n江苏\n4637\n2961\n943\n676\n\n\n2\n广东\n4461\n2717\n933\n730\n\n\n3\n山东\n3028\n1775\n619\n590\n\n\n4\n北京\n2960\n2022\n411\n496\n\n\n5\n浙江\n2942\n1747\n700\n447\n\n\n6\n四川\n2367\n1366\n502\n461\n\n\n7\n河南\n2303\n1384\n502\n385\n\n\n8\n上海\n2268\n1400\n491\n334\n\n\n\n河北\n2017\n1146\n492\n352\n\n\n10\n湖北\n1934\n1140\n381\n386\n\n\n1\n深圳\n1591\n841\n382\n338\n\n\n12\n湖南\n1558\n883\n374\n275\n\n\n13\n安徽\n1427\n745\n413\n249\n\n\n14\n陕西\n1134\n703\n226\n189\n\n\n\n改革之举\n在不利的环境下实现突围，不仅需要壮士断腕的决心，还需要足够的耐心。友邦是个例子，2010年开展改革计划，招募高质量代理人，严格规范培训和奖励机制，当然副作用是代理人数量的下降及新业务增速下降。但三年后，终于涅槃重生，代理人数量和质量得到改善，新业务价值持续稳定增长，优秀代理人裂变若干个优秀团队，业务和增员能进行良性循环。\n平安改革迹象也很明显：低产出代理人加速出清，培养也受到重视。招募高学历，高素质代理人，查漏补缺，提高整体代理人团队的营销质量。\n若改革顺利，或将在2023年看到拐点，能观测到的先行指标是代理人数量何时企稳。若代理人数量和质量依旧在下滑，产能不足将直接导致保险新业务价值继续减少和内涵价值加速降低，进一步“杀估值”将不可避免\n平安从2019年就开始代理人制度改革，背后是行业思路的转变，从人海战术转向高质量发展。客观说，改革有一定成效，人均新业务价值在2023年大幅增长89.5%，平均工资也从2022年的7051元上涨至9813元。\n平安寿险的改革自 19 年起头一直在路上，换了几任领导，走过虚空的弯路，浪费了几年时间，随着 CEO 的荣退，新上来的年轻领导又要开始折腾了，从我的不成熟预判来看，精兵简政是一定会搞的，旧的项目要砍掉一些，但他新立的方向也大概率不靠谱，草台班子的既视感袭来，顶层仿佛同步进入了战术盲区，允许在小范围乱折腾。随着主要领导班子大量接近退休年龄（已连续荣退几位了），后几年的调整看来不会少。\n\n\n\n姓名\n性别\n出生年月\n现平寿任职\n分管业务\n入司时间\n\n\n\n\n杨峥\n男\n64.2\n党委书记，董事长，代总经理\n\n94.7\n\n\n蔡霆\n男\n85.10\n副总经理上交人力资源管理专业学士毕业\n渠道中心，产品中心，财企中心\n14.11\n\n\n胡景平\n男\n65.1\n副总经理\n个险事业部机构督导部\n93.12\n\n\n邓明辉\n男\n65.8\n副总经理，财务负责人，首席风险官\n财务部，风险管理部\n\n\n\n史伟玉\n女\n76.12\n副总经理\n运营中心，科技研发部，法律合规部，稽核监察部\n99.1\n\n\n\n看看保险姓保\n严惩误导性销售 提高全渠道人员质素\n一方面代理人不专业和离职，最终的后果都是由保险公司承担。代理人体系亟待改革，原有运转模式病入膏肓。\n过去，保险业追求高速成长，员工数量随之快速增长，员工绩效也仅仅以销售额为主要考核指标。因此，销售人员在进行产品销售时，不免出现违规现象。\n外资险企由于发展年限较长、经验较多，对于员工培训、销售行为等方面已经形成一套严格的执行方法，我国险企有望借外力完善自身体制机制。转型期，“粗放式”增长已满足不了日益变化的社会环境和监管要求，保险公司向高质量发展转变更为紧迫。\n保险中介监管全面趋严–政府网的通告\n\n事实上，由于保险公司部分业务过分依赖中介销售，导致很多时候险企在中介销售面前没有主动权。《通知》强调，保险公司应及时要求中介渠道业务主体纠正违法违规行为，且保险公司要对中介渠道业务报告内容的真实性负责，这便于帮助保险公司实现对中介业务的合规管控。\n\n十四五的调调\n“深入整治保险市场乱象”，在银保监会年初召开的2021年工作会议以及7月的全系统2021年年中工作座谈会暨纪检监察工作（电视电话）座谈会上均被提及。\n\n在毫不松懈地防范化解金融风险的背景之下，针对保险市场特别是人身险、互联网保险等重点领域的痼疾与新症，银保监会继续重拳整治违法违规行为，并且加快补齐制度短板，监管成效显著。\n\n监管部门将牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线，更好地保护消费者权益，着力提升保险业的形象与声誉。这是保险机构必须清醒认识的现实，也是接下来前行发展的正确方向。\n此篇文章讲的挺多\n18年的这篇文章也是铺垫-督促险企提升发展质量\n什么风险\n2021年以来，银保监会还因偿付能力严重不足、险资运用违规、违反“试点批复”要求等情况分别向安心财险、珠江人寿、人保健康发出监管函。\n还有这种腔调：部分人身险产品实际成为保险公司的融资通道和客户投资渠道，并没有真正的保险责任。\n看看这则险企风险评级新闻\n代理人队伍培养如何赋能\n\n\n代理人最大的需求不是工具，而是客源，纯粹的工具并不能从根本上解决问题。\n\n\n展业工具要直接嵌入到代理人的客户经营中，要在最核心的价值链中发挥作用，否则效果会大打折扣。\n\n\n代理人的培训也要优先关注最具核心价值的环节，先做主顾开拓培训，再培训销售技巧。\n\n\n次数优于金额可能较务实\n此处的问题是，大部分保险公司认为解决问题的关键在于保额提升，这个思路是对的，但用户资金既定的情况下，实操难度非常大。因此，提高人均件数是一个更好的思路。特别是互联网时代，对多数代理人来说，拓宽主顾开拓边际找到更多的准客户，比在一个客户身上卖更多保单容易。\n把代理人队伍稳住，才能实现可持续发展，包括与互联网深度结合等.\n互联网如何切入？\n产品抓手\n\n\n用客观细致的产品评测吸引更多用户\n\n\n用高标准严要求吸引优质代理人\n\n\n服务目标\n\n建立两者间高效，顺畅的桥梁，为行业降本增效\n\n\n\n代理人端解决主顾开拓问题\n\n\n消费端解决保险认知问题\n\n\n如何看待保险代理人职业通道\n保险公司会提供看似丰富的培训和支持，从产品知识到销售技巧，应有尽有。但培训的终极目标只有一个，让你尽快开始销售，为公司创造利润。是把你推向战场的最后准备，而不是真正关心你的职业发展。\n很多人相信只要熬过最初的艰难期，就能迎来丰收，这种心态就像买彩票，明知道中奖概率渺茫，还是忍不住幻想。不得不承认，有人在这个行业里找到了成功，这些”榜样“的存在，给了很多人坚持下去的动力。\n保险行业像一个多棱镜，从不同角度看，会呈现不同的景象。有机遇也有陷阱，是淘金地也是一些人望而生畏的险滩，那些真正热爱这个行业，专业敬业的保险从业者，他们不仅仅是在销售产品，更是在传递一种责任和关怀。\n如果你准备好了面对高压力，且有足够的人际资源和销售才能，那么可能是你的舞台，但如果你只是被高收入传言吸引，却没有做好充分准备，那么等待你的不会是一场美梦。\n任何行业都没有捷径可走，成功是努力，智慧和运气的结合，保险行业也不例外，可能给你带来财富，但绝不会轻易让你得到。\n参考\n1.搜狐 保险行业，四年少了600万代理人 ↩2.百度 保费赔付缘何剪刀差 ↩3.国家金融监督管理总局 24年9月全国各地区原保险业保费收入情况表 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业","金融"]},{"title":"儿童作业-言而有信","url":"/%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E4%BD%9C%E4%B8%9A-%E8%A8%80%E8%80%8C%E6%9C%89%E4%BF%A1.html","content":"\n\n学校的书信体读书练笔作业，要求家长也参与回复一封\n\n亲爱的\n你好，这段时间你一直在阅读《尼尔斯骑鹅历险记》，读的很认真和仔细，从你的这封来信中可见一斑，你不仅通读了故事，了解了尼尔斯变成小人后的各种奇遇，还对作者对瑞典的画卷般的描写印象深刻，仿佛跟着尼尔斯一同经历了这番挑战历程。你自己阅读期间，多次向我讲起尼尔斯和公鹅莫顿的历险，和狐狸斯密尔的斗智斗勇，和雁群度过的精彩时光，真是读的非常投入。\n循着你的推荐，我也快速读了这篇世界名著，将我的一些额外理解同你分享。作者借助尼尔斯变小后的特殊观察视角，向小朋友描绘出了大自然是一张会呼吸的生命网络这一温柔真谛，当我们温柔对待世界，世界就会向我们回赠整片星空。尼尔斯也在与动物朋友们的相处中完成了从捣蛋鬼到守护者的成长。这一路旅程，尼尔斯交到了最特别的朋友，大雁阿卡队长教会他勇敢，就像体育委员带着大家挑战跑步比赛；莫顿鹅和他分享最后一条小鱼干，就像同桌把新橡皮切成两半；就连曾经讨厌他的麻雀，最后也变成能说悄悄话的伙伴。这些朋友让他明白，真正的友谊不是争夺，而是像拼图那样互相需要和给予。\n人生是一场成长游戏，爸爸希望你保持住阅读的好习惯。读书世界就在眼前，不读书眼前就是世界。借助读书可做到，千年精华，尽收眼底，多样遗产，罗列手边。爸爸现在阅读书籍时也会发布读书笔记，替你将书读薄，希望你长大后能读到来自十几年前的交流问候，更快速的建立知识体系。爸爸现在正在读《历史的棋局》，看穿民族迷雾，学史明理、学史增信、学史崇德、学史力行。\n祝你\n茁壮成长，乐学趣考！\n​                                                                                                                                                                             爱你的爸爸\n​                                                                                                                                                                             2025年3月16日\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["亲子","文学"]},{"title":"儿童时期最幸福的10件事","url":"/%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E6%97%B6%E6%9C%9F%E6%9C%80%E5%B9%B8%E7%A6%8F10%E4%BB%B6%E4%BA%8B.html","content":"\n3-6岁经历的美好体验会转化为内隐记忆，形成终生的情感基底色。看似简单的快乐，实则是大脑构建情绪调节、认知框架和社会适应的关键材料。\n开门见山\n\n父母的无目的拥抱。父母肢体接触促进催产素分泌，超 8 次拥抱可使杏仁核焦虑指数下降 42%。每天 10 分钟高专注度的亲子游戏能促进情绪调节能力发展。\n自由涂鸦的权利：前额叶皮层活跃度提升 37%，获得对物质世界的控制感，创造冲动得到释放\n水与沙的物理探索：非结构化游戏刺激多巴胺分泌量是玩具的 2.3 倍\n模仿成人劳动：获得我能做到的初级效能感\n自主选择零食：打破被动接受状态的解放感。2-4 岁每周 3 次食物选择权，成年后决策失误率降低 19%。\n重复性的仪式：如吹生日蜡烛，睡前交流等，昏暗灯光下的叙事形成海马体特殊记忆轨迹\n泥巴里的微生物社交：过敏率下降+突破禁忌带来的叛逆快感\n捉迷藏的峰值体验：躲藏时皮质醇短暂升高，发现瞬间释放内啡肽\n雨中踩水坑：对水资源的原始亲近本能，跨模态整合最佳场景\n被认真倾听的瞬间：成人蹲下平时对话时，儿童语言中枢血流量增加 31%，获得我存在的确认感\n\n总结\n\n\n这些活动的共同特征是：非功利性互动+感官自由+掌控感确认。\n\n\n非结构化的快乐体验 1 个单位将在成年后心理健康回报率 6.2 个单位，非常划算。\n\n\n每天有 2 小时的无目标活动时间，是比早教课程更珍贵的成长养料。\n\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["育儿"]},{"title":"内循环与共同富裕","url":"/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html","content":"\n躲不开的“过剩”\n小时候大家都听过资本主义倒牛奶的故事，辅以画外音：经济危机是资本主义自身不可克服的矛盾，一些简单的教条让中小学生们死记硬背着。\n但是其中的概要总结现在回头来看，也是切中要害的：社会化大生产与生产资料私人占有之间的矛盾日益深化，从而使资本主义经济危机周期性发作。在中国特色主义的高歌猛进下，产能过剩，也不能免俗。\n举个栗子\n让我们从一个比喻开始，你希望有五个老婆，这要需要，但你只养得起一个，这叫“有效需求”。同理，老王想要苹果全家桶，BBA各来一辆，两个超模保姆，大平层，天天米其林…但是上边说的这些老王都买不起，只能买得起红米手机，那他的需求就只有红米手机。在市场经济的话语体系里，如果买不起，那你就不是人。（卖不出去，东西过剩了）\n产能也是一样的，如果大家都买不起，或者不需要这些玩意，那就是过剩。奇怪，有钱能生产出来，咋个就卖不出去呢？\n让我们以一个极简化模型来讨论。假设地球是一个村，里面有资本家黄四郎和一堆村民。黄四郎有个厂子，雇佣村民生产自行车，杯子和房子等必需品，将来卖给村民。如果这些商品值100万，这时候就有个分配问题，如果黄四郎拿20万，给员工分80万，这合理吧（这也就是占有剩余价值）。合理是合理，但问题来了：员工们的80万无论如何也买不完黄四郎的100万产品（地球村简化模型说的就是等价交换，不提微观的垄断差价，360行你赚我赔，100w的蛋糕也是工人切分的基础），而黄四郎也不可能把自己的20万都花掉，富人在消费品领域消费比例一直不高，看着他花钱猛，不过消费占收入比例远小于穷人。换句话说，最后20万产品死活卖不出去，所以说，只要商人逐利，一部分收益不消费，就有一部分对应物资卖不出去，这玩意就是过剩。能不能给工人们发110w工资下去，那资本家赚啥？（能有110w那也是工人透支举债投资消费，后面会提到）\n\n社会化大生产的牛皮癣\n从英国引爆了工业革命那一刻，这个问题就如影随形，也就是消费这么重要的原因，但当时英国工人工资非常低，无论如何也消费不了那么多的物资，富人又不可能把赚到的钱都花了，多余的工业品卖不出去就成了个大问题，怎么办，只能卖到海外去（外循环），拼了命在全世界找市场，打大清，打印度。只要资源足够，英国人工业品生产潜能是无限的，麻烦的问题就是卖不出去。打下印度后，英国一下子牛逼的不得了，因为印度既是英国原料产地，又是工业品倾销地，一牛两用。等印度不跟着英国混，英国也就现了原形，变成小岛国去了。\n当所有产能过剩，东西卖不出去，厂子倒闭，工人更没钱，更没法消费，然后就全球经济危机了。美国人想出来给普通百姓贷款，借钱消费，危机被延缓了，但也会出现借力过猛，还不上的问题，也就是大家也熟知的金融危机。\n只有外部市场，产能依旧迟早过剩；如果完全内循环，在市场经济的远处也只能是死路一条。外部市场不能没，但我国长期太过依赖外部，今后也要提升内部市场地位，所以提双循环，而且提的是内循环为主，oh my god。\n啥是内循环\n外循环典型及弊端\n直接解释没啥意思，先讲一个不是内循环的，二战前的德国。德国在一战中伤了元气，欠了一屁股债，日子没法过，尽管工厂还在，但政府没一毛钱，也没钱买原料，不能开工，工人没工资，市场无法循环，整个国家越来越挫。好在美国人来了，给了德国大笔贷款，让德国人去买了原料重新开工，然后生产出来的东西一部分德国人用，剩下的大部分卖到了美国，这种情况下，典型的外向型经济体（压低要素成本，一般来说劳动者没钱），生产的东西主要卖到海外。随后1929经济危机爆发（经济危机也因美国无法继续高效挖掘外部市场，见下段），德国出事了。因为美国那边大规模破产，美国人没钱买德国东西，德国工厂也没法开工，工人失业，绝望下，把希特勒推上总理位置。\n希特勒当时想出来一个策略就是扩大军工，国家发行国债，筹钱投资给军队，让军队去向企业订货，空闲产能就被调动起来，扩军不稀奇，但问题钱从哪来，希特勒有办法，不是已经扩军嘛，枪在手，随后的事大家都知道，打劫捷克，波兰，然后法国，最后苏联。德国这个典型的外循环国家，一旦海外出事，东西卖不出去，就是大规模失业潮，一点办法都没，只能转向军工，武装后战争机器就去海外打劫，这样形成一个新的外循环。\n内循环-漂亮国\n接着说接近内循环的例子，美国。美国很早就意识到，想可持续发展，关键是搞一个庞大的内部市场，生产出来的东西自己尽量消化（福特就是这么理解这个问题的，一度指望自己的员工将来买自己的汽车）。\n理想骨感，在实操阶段，就是大萧条爆发前，资本家血腥无比，往死里压榨工人工资。当时美国资本家养的打手比美国军队还多，动不动就对要求涨工资的工人们来一波血腥屠杀，当时的美国政府其实就是资本家的马仔，在边上看热闹，偶尔还帮着资本家镇压工人。\n当时工人整体工资上不去，自然也买不完本国生产的物资。当时全世界都指望把自己的商品卖到别的国家去或殖民地去。当时美国就热衷将物资卖给中国，中国的地主们有点积蓄，很欢乐地购买西洋玩意。这些工业品从长三角进入中国，入关就得交税，所以控制了长三角税收的蒋委员长就是各军阀里最强大的一个。民国电视剧里的绿台灯，就是美国生产的，那时权贵基本一屋子都是美国货。这个背景下，美国也有外循环，也要把东西卖海外去，等到全世界所有市场全部挖掘干净了，资本主义天量的工业品就没地方卖了，又出现严重的过剩，再加上股市崩溃，引发了1929大萧条。德国在这次危机中转向军工来吸收产能，那美国怎么办呢？\n罗斯福新政\n美国和德国思路有些像，又不完全像。罗斯福搞以工代赈，也就是政府借钱搞基建，吸收产能和就业，有点像我国现有的模式。但这不是罗斯福政策的全部，他牛逼在他超前地意识到，整个社会想稳定运行，必须得搞出一个庞大的中产阶级来。通过提高工人工资和福利保障，把社会从之前的金字塔变成橄榄球造型。这样就可以通过自我革命，避免被苏联演变。那个时代苏联那套才是普世价值，处于进攻位置，欧美处于防守状态。\n在搞基建过程中，罗斯福大刀阔斧拆分自由主义时代的工业和金融巨头，对大企业开始征税，搞转移支付，向工人阶级提供保障，提高工资。当时工人和资本家冲突严重，罗斯福一改以前政府保护资本家的习惯，果断站在工人一边。比如1932年福特汽车工人罢工，州警察照例来驱赶，但联邦政府军队赶来支持罢工群众，州警察和联邦军队持枪对峙。为了跟资本家对抗，顺便打击黑社会（美国当时资本家大部分跟黑社会不明不白），罗斯福充分向FBI授权，继而FBI雄起。\n1929经济危机爆发时，美国两级分化最严重，0.1%的人拿走全社会25%的财富，90%的人分16%，老百姓没钱消费。从罗斯福开始，美国搞了一堆法案，致力于降低贫富差距，通过国家来调整收入结构，从那后，富人财富占比一路走低，美国慢慢涌现出一个庞大的中产阶层，政府强制搞养老金，避免老无所依，让大家放心消费。这种趋势一直持续到里根上台，美国重新大规模搞自由化，社会越来越分化，到了2008年产生了大危机。\n效率至上？\n众所周知，国家介入肯定会影响效率，不过政治家理解问题更加全面一些，因为社会追求的不仅仅是效率，从理论上讲，达尔文式的物竞天择效率最高。如果都不去照顾老人，让每个弱者都自发淘汰，效率会更上一层楼，但那样社会很快就会陷入崩溃，也就别谈效率了。\n而事实上，欧洲的福利制度也起源于革命运动风起云涌的俾斯麦德国。俾斯麦搞这玩意的初衷就是稳定社会，防止德国社会在一波革命中灰飞烟灭。\n技术平民化-市场经济的功效\n单纯的分配并不能解决问题，还要把蛋糕持续做大。在这方面，美国其实做的最好的事情是“国转民”。啥意思呢，进入20世纪后，就明显出现一个问题：技术越来越复杂，难度越来越高，如果私人部门搞研发，就算急死也搞不出多少来。比如影响了整个20世纪的几项关键研究：原子能，计算机，互联网和基因工程，都是以国家的力量，集合各种资源搞出来，并不是什么市场经济的伟力。\n市场经济真正的能力在于把这些技术变得既廉价，又亲民，让大家都用上，最后国家通过税收回收了投入，企业通过雇佣高收入员工拉高了社会就业率和工人收入，社会效率也得到大幅提高。\n\n苏联其实当时在技术研发上也很厉害，但最大的问题是没法对新技术进行廉价化，导致技术研发过程巨贵无比，研发出来后生产了几个样品就没下文了。这种只投入无产出的单向路径，想都不用想最终会让财政不堪重负，苏联正是财政崩溃后，苏联上层决定不过了，然后解体了。\n\n全球化-空心化\n美国通过一系列的操作，成功让美国从巨大的工业国，拥有了一个巨大的内需市场，实现了真正的内外两循环。只不过到了新千年之后，问题发生了大变化，大量的美国公司变成了跨国公司，搬到了海外，尤其是东亚，东亚本来是个内卷大坑，就是人多勤奋不怕苦。如果竞争有限资源互相往死里坑，但是如果去跟海外竞争基本无人能敌，很快东亚就成了“工业巨坑”，美国也逐步空心化。\n种花家的艰难转型\n\n把内循环搞起来，本身是个系统化工程，超复杂，且不是短期能搞定的，很可能要到20年后才能明白现在这个政策的意义，正如现在的房地产政策始于朱总时代，当时的人没啥感觉一样，再过很多年，突然才发现原来在2020年政策已经变了。\n\n过去三十年，中国向美国出口通缩（生产大量商品却没有足够消费力，一直在积累通缩压力），美国向中国出口通胀（印大量钱但没有对应商品），两者均保持微通胀的良好状态。可现在二者终来到了贸易失衡的阶段，且双方无法通过谈判解决分歧。太平洋两端，一个高血压，一个低血糖，隔空相视。\n中国要成为世界经济的领导者，过去的老路肯定无法持续，因为就算卷死欧美，那么需求也跟着死了，必须让自己的国民富裕起来，内循环转起来，让国内需求拉动经济，进而扩张拉动全球经济。\n搞内需，这事复杂在哪？\n提工资\n如果单纯提高工资，确实会增加消费，但会损害我国产品海外竞争力。这点上纯劳动密集型产业还是转移到经济水平更低的国家为好，消化产能带动后发国家的同时，做高海外收益。内部靠再次/三次分配，搞服务业相互挣钱。\n\nGNP在GDP之外，又再加上了当年国外生产的红利，利息总值，包含到国民在国外的投资和生产（但是是减去外国投资者在本国的投资收益和短期劳务报酬，这样一减也就没多少了，因为经济、资本高度全球化的世界，很难做到“只对外投资，而不接受他国投资”）。全球的大国，GNP和GDP的差异大多都在3%以内，日本也一样。你海外开厂投资赚别人的钱，别人也通过资本渗入分享你本国创造的收益，都绑定在一起了。\n\n企业减税\n如果给企业减税，企业订单没增加，突然账上多了一笔钱，它会给员工涨工资吗？\n可能会吧，但从历史经验来看，企业第一反应基本是去买套房屯着，反而推高了房地产价格。美国那边减税后会去回购股票，来推高股价。\n给中产减税呢？\n中产又分好几等，年收入60万以上也是中产，5-10万也是中产（美国那边定义滴滴司机就算中产），你给他们减了税，各个阶层反应差别很大。\n年入100w者\n年入100w等家庭退税10w，这一家人会把多出来的钱去超市买水果，买衣服增加消费吗？可能吧，不过大概率是去海外购买奢侈品，或者直接去海外旅游，钱也花国外去，又成外循环了。\n年入30w者\n给月入30w家庭退税，或者补助，他们啥反应？会去三亚旅游？买鞋？给孩子买个玩具？有可能，不过更大可能是攒着准备下一套房了，毕竟旅游和买玩具他们本来就支付得起，不原因支付是因为在攒钱买房，买了一套还想买。\n低收入减税？他就没交税\n如果你给低收入阶层减税，会惊喜的发现他们并没有交税，减啥减？直接发钱？这个倒是也可以，而且他们倒也很愿意消费，这个操作我国已经在做了，“脱贫攻坚”就是向下转移。促进社会保障体系，我国也做了很多年了。\n技术拉动经济-创造高薪岗位\n中美当初相比，缺了点什么呢？政府看出来了，正是技术的转换。国家投资技术研发，然后转化给私企来廉价化和市场化，最后涌现出一堆公司来。这一点上我国已有成功经验，如移动互联网，就是典型的“政府搭台，企业唱戏”，且成熟的内循环的案例。\n政府投了无数的钱，把中国移动互联网体系搭了起来，然后涌现一堆互联网公司，塑造了中国现在的新面貌，大量的高薪岗位，还拉动了其他岗位，如二三线的快递和电商从业者。\n大家要有个常识，一般说的“中产阶级”，是介于穷人和有钱人之间的那伙人，所以美国开滴滴，修下水道的，都是中产。换算到中国，大概年入5w到100w之间的这群人。3个年入10万的，肯定比一个年入30w的对经济效果好。6个年入5w的，效果会更好。\nSo，扩大中产阶级规模，说的是5w这个阶层的，不是30w的阶层。\n\n\n大部分挂在网上的人与这个关系都不大，因为大家可能觉得自己钱不够的，但是在中国，政府关心的是低收入阶层。当你年收入超过5w，你就是成熟的社会人了，不能指望政府帮你做点啥了。\n\n\n如果你年收入超过10万，妥妥的社会中坚，得承担起义务来，得想想你能给国家做点啥了。\n\n\n年收入超过三十万或者一百万的知乎群众，政府根本没工夫理他们。政府唯一在意的，就是想想搞点高端玩意，让他们想花钱的时候，尽量在国内花。\n\n\n移动互联网在这方面做的最好，生动地向大家展示了什么叫“技术拉动经济”，创造了几千万个相关岗位，广度很大。一个本来在大城市上班的抖音博主，有几十万粉丝，无意向大家推荐了他家乡的手工竹器，现在他们村竹器卖得特别好，以前村里每家年收入不到1w，现在已经3，4万了，后续会更好，技术创新的触手已经伸到了乡村。\n内循环的直观影响\n所谓内循环：\n\n短期靠转移（财政向基层转移财富，提升基层消费能力，改善民生，消耗我国工业品，正是扶贫攻坚的意义）\n长期靠科技\n\n从根本上解决问题，最关键还是要靠技术的突破，搞几个新的爆发点出来，像移动互联网一样，催生一大堆新公司，更多数量的高收入阶层和更大规模的中产，这才是决定性的操作。\n房价\n房价问题，隐隐我国要搞新加坡模式。新加坡政府给大家提供一堆长得差不多的廉价房，你愿意就去那里住。廉价房旁就是商品房，嗷嗷贵，比北上深都贵，新加坡有钱人就在那里边住着。我国关系民生的那部分房价会慢慢平复下来，但是还有一部分房产价格贵到让人怀疑人生，例如一二线核心区，彻底金融化。不然有钱人的钱去哪？全世界有个共同点，就是一有钱就搞豪宅，而且如果没有高端房产，他们就跑去国外置产了，这对我国来说，也是一种财富外流。\n\n一线豪华盘贵到大家怀疑人生，超级都市圈会越来越大，这些地方的房子没空闲出来一说；其它地方会空心化，没什么投资价值\n\n进口替代\n今后进口替代会进一步加剧，就是说一些豪华大品牌，要慢慢国产化，中国工业品尽管发达且门类齐全，但有钱人消费的高端玩意还是依赖进口，政府可能会像扶持京东方一样扶持这类产业，让大家都能廉价用上高端玩意。\n旁边的杂音\n这段时间，常有越南出口和订单如何如何猛的消息，抢了中国的生意云云。但越南和中国根本不在一个竞争咖位上，传播之流也就是些鼠目之辈或别有用心。\n越南\n越南取代中国就像马来取代德国一样搞笑，在中国看来，它就是个省级国家。越南自己设定的小目标是泰国（泰国是东南亚的头部国家，有制造业，旅游业，环境也不错），下定决心10年内超过泰国，争取50年内达到中国台湾的水平。我们跟越南的关系有点像10几年前我们和美国的关系，处在不同的生态位。\n越南现在最大的优势就是人力便宜，普通工人月薪1千左右，有些国内企业外派员工过去，各种补助算下来一个月2-3w，过着神仙一样的生活，像极了20多年前老外在中国的感觉。但越南很难培养出自己巨大的国内市场，产业升级是个大麻烦，他们自己也懂，没那么多谈判筹码。且其国家小（国土狭长面积小，山多平地少，人口集中在南北两个山脚），基础设施差，居民教育水平也不行（殖民地肯定不推行教育，一直打仗也影响，直到70年代后才慢慢开始），干不了复杂的事情。要从最底层的组装也慢慢去爬科技树。\n越南转型较快，但还有一个问题是党政军三家不分，有军队经商的问题（硬实力最强），改革开放裁军一半60w人转业到地方，造成军队影响力不减反增。越南军队影响力可与泰国和缅甸相媲美（军政府尾大不掉），要是在改革中遇到问题，军队利益受损，暴走没准也是一瞬间的事情。\n人才教育\n\n越南很难培养自己巨大的国内市场，21年人口9850w，产业升级会是个大麻烦。人力资源水平更多取决于知识水平，所以非洲的人力资源要差些意思。印度教育水平不差，差的是普及程度，基层差的一塌糊涂，所以印度相当于一个2,3亿人的国家。\n美国从越南撤军时也带走了精英人群，meta小扎的老婆就是越南华裔，当时随美军撤走的，虽然逃难什么都丢了才去美国时很惨。\n越南的人才外逃一直没停止过（动乱使中产阶级全面出逃，且有清洗历史），国家人才失血，有点家产和能力的人都想跑路，美国有200w越南裔，都是一点点跑来的。\n越南的高等教育是个大问题，文科生比理科生多得多，因为没有足够的岗位提供理科生，还有部分是理科生培育成本相对更高，东南亚国家都有这种味道。\n\n中国产业转移\n中国中低端制造业专业出去已是必然，不少工厂已经招不到人，追着这些刚从坑里爬出来的国家跑也是必然。只要这些国家的人稍微有些选择，没人会选择在流水线旁站8个小时当人肉机械臂的工作。流水线没换机械臂只是因为这世界上还有人比机械臂还便宜。华人一些不准备干的厂，发现到了越南还有得赚，于是就搬过去了。且越南应该是这个星球上最接近于我们的国家，而中越实际没什么竞争关系，没必要敌视越南。\n总结\n**正所谓：穷人国家补，富人国内花，科技要突破，进口要替代。**只是过程快不了，只能是慢慢来，且政府只是个导向，通过税收来激励，真正去操作，还得依赖一波波强人们去操作，一般十年一个周期，2010年中国和现在完全不一样，不出意外，2030又是一番天地。\n发达国家都得有个强大的内部市场来消化产能，之前出口导向有太多的收益者，如果想改变这种导向，平常没法基本操作，只能在危机时期才能操作，类似美国南北战争后遭到封锁，才被迫发展太平洋航线和国内市场，大萧条爆发后才被迫调整贫富差距，每次经历巨大的危机，大家才会思考怎么避免这类问题，平时谁顾得上啊，就算你提出来也会被笑话成杞人忧天。\n危机绝对是转机，肯定是之前的老路走不下去才危机嘛，这时候被迫跳出舒适区，去做那些艰难的事，解决复杂的问题，才是进步之源。\n共同富裕的外部启示\n在贸易顺差追赶美丽国的过程中，德日都遭受了打击，都要求签署了广场协议，都经济遭受重创，但德日两家受影响不同，给我们在共同富裕上的启示很大。\n广场协议\n日本战后发展很快，一方面美国大哥开放了西方市场给他们（生产东西卖给西方），解决了需求端的问题，另一方面西方也转让了一部分资金和技术给日本，让他快点起来围堵苏联和中国，就解决了供给端的问题，天时地利人和，都凑齐了。日本从战后到73年，每年8%以上的增速，74年放缓一年后，第二轮增长持续到90年前后，同时期德国情况差不多，也是飞速发展。美国本来准备修理他俩来着，但随着冷战铁幕落下，正好落在他俩家门口，美丽国只好扶他俩起来干苏联。\n在增长下，日本和我国情况一样，对外贸易上占了美国人便宜，贸易顺差，德国一样，美国人一度不准德国人去美国卖车。美国越来越暴躁，三十年间纺织大战，钢铁贸易大战，彩电摩擦，汽车贸易摩擦，不过也是因为你牛逼才摩擦你。\n80年代日本事世界上第二大经济体，人均收入是美国145%，GDP占世界15%，超过德法两家综合。德国也成了欧洲领头羊，法国也通过举国之力搞定了一堆重要的技术突破，他俩开始威胁美国在欧洲的影响力。\n在这个背景下，美国忍无可忍，准备收拾下德日，就有了广场协议，但说被广场协议直接干趴，太过简化了。美丽国指责两国操纵汇率（跟说中国一样），不过这事没冤枉日本，日本老百姓买美国东西巨贵，基本不买美国东西，美国人买日本人东西巨便宜，疯狂消费日本产品，上调两国汇率，这样德日货就会很贵，美国货也不那么完全没竞争力。\n美国搞日本是个长期的事，广场协议只是其中一部分，真实情况是1971年就开始搞，一直搞到1987年，并不是一个协议那么简化。71年西方十国财长就搞了个《史密斯协定》，要求日元升值，小打小闹不断，85年美英德法日财长在美国纽约广场饭店签订了《广场协定》，87年还有《卢浮宫协议》，核心就是一件事，让日元和德国马克升值。迫于压力且日本政府希望日元国际化，日元出现大幅升值，日本生产的汽车和彩电变贵，86年日本出口增速从3.9%暴跌到-16.8%，以往卖到海外的东西卖不出去了，德国也差不多，出口暴跌，随后几年GDP增速也遭到腰斩。\n他俩可都是工业国，也是生产国，生产出来的东西卖不出积压在仓库，但是贷款利息就能把大部分企业干倒闭，怎么办，德日都慌了。\n协议的副作用-产业转移\n德日都使劲压低制造成本，德国办法是把一部分制造业搬到东德和东欧国家，那些国家老百姓工资低，成本低。日本也一样，为了提升竞争力降成本，很多工厂就转移到中国沿海去了，当时中国急需外汇，这部分工业转移帮里不少忙。在这以前，中国换外汇主要通过卖石油和煤炭给日本，那时中国属于资源国，随后升级到低端制造业，近几年又在向高端制造业发展。\n不过日本大部分转到东南亚，就说亚洲四小虎，但98年金融危机后，四小虎遭到欧美资本屠杀，资本家发现东南亚国家政府太弱，中国正好加入WTO，低端产能于是都来了中国。历史上是中国吸走了东南亚的制造业，现在中国也在向外转移不太赚钱的产能。\n分岔路口\n我国当前也面临日德当初的问题。出口不产业升级势必长期走弱，原材料价格狂涨，原材料主要在澳洲等手里，资源公司背后都是美日资本控股，资源涨价，看着我国出口发展很好，大头其实被原材料赚了，也就是欧美赚了，我们制造业现在利润非常薄。\n投资回报率面临一个边际收益递减的问题，好理解，早起投资基建是雪中送炭，现在成了锦上添花，如早期投建京沪高铁，流量大收益高，现在主干道修的差不多了，比较偏大线路流量根本撑不住高铁这样的大投资，投资回报率非常低。\n绕来绕去只剩扩大内需一条路了，扩大内需又两条路\n\n一是通过货币政策来放大，贷款消费日本路线，结果是资产泡沫达到离谱，最后大家借不到钱整体崩了。08年的次贷也是一个道理。\n\n\n我国这两年坚定去杠杆，这事的本质和沃尔克和三重野康的做法目标是一致的，都是降负债投机降泡沫，只是疯狂原始人激进了些。\n\n\n另一个办法就是德国办法，国家主动转移，降低贫富差距，让基层老百姓有钱消费，拉动内需，有消费了才能继续生产，逻辑听起来很奇怪，不过搞市场经济就这样，消费在前，生产在后。我国一线城市收入水平直逼发达国家，但还有很多地方仍属于欠发达地区，这也像西德东德的关系。本来德国主要深耕欧洲，被美国搞了之后，更加深耕欧洲，跟我们现在大力发展跟东南亚的贸易也很相似。\n\n德国那套逻辑还有个好处，避免房价股价什么暴涨，这类东西一暴涨，大家就会借钱去炒作，本该消费的钱就花到这类资产上了，非常容易出事。但这几年东欧老年化严重，德国对东欧的投资收益率也上不去，开始投机本国房地产，叠加美元放水，德国的房价也是一直在攀高。\n我国不断出台政策，压房价，提共同富裕，完善财税系统，明显是在走德国的路线且回避日本当初的坑。且跟德国相比，我们的纵深优势比他们大得多，空间更大，尤其要利用起来。\n日本对策\n\n在早期的美日产业争端中，美国没搞透日本这种官僚+财阀的有计划的市场经济。其内部跟铁桶一样，外力难以插进去，到了80年后，美国以各种方式开始切割这种联系。第一，不准日本再集中所有资源去大规模推行各种产业政策，第二，开始大力扶持韩国，将日本订单份额转移给韩，造成竞争，阻碍进步。第三要求日本开放各种管道，使财阀可以从其它地方获取资金，摆脱对本土资金的依赖，同时让美国资本去购买这些财阀的股票，形成利益捆绑关系（这一点最重要）。\n日本能崛起的重要原因，就是因为这些财阀能利用官僚提供的无限资金进行赶超式发展，哪怕赶超的方向没什么利润，甚至亏损也义无反顾，毕竟资金上依赖它，当然指哪打哪。\n\n日本的起家就是一个出口的过程，但切断外部需求时，只能通过拉通它自身的需求来填补空缺，可长期的出口早就让其内部养成了一个高储蓄但无需求（压低要素成本没多少收入）的环境。美日的第二次产业争端，决定的是全球创新型国家的位置，需要的是海量资金试错成本，美国可以依靠美元虹吸全球，可日本并没有达到那种程度。\n\n高储蓄率除去文化因素和保障政策，与特定发展阶段经济增长方式也密切相关，人口红利丰裕，投资回报率较高，必然诱导出以要素累积为主导的经济增长模式，高投资回报率又会引发储蓄的动机。\n当要素累积推动的增长模式难以为继的情况下，高储蓄率可能通过挤压消费，给经济增长带来不利影响。\n家庭的发展和国家的发展也有类比之处，没有储蓄结余的家庭也是没法增长型发展和阶层跃升的，做复杂的事情需要延迟满足，这部分延迟的消费（储蓄）也是投资/杠杆基石的一种。\n\n当消费市场需求不足，就只能通过拉动房股来人为制造需求，完成一个市场循环。这种方式并没能形成金融和商品的对接，按当时炒资本的疯狂劲头，很难说到底有多少资本愿意去一些特定的方向去拼搏一些未知的未来（而且即使成功了，在走出去时也有可能被老美围追堵截），结果嘛大家现在都知道了，日本的第二次转型自然失败了。\n让本国老百姓消费掉过剩产能，可老百姓钱就那么多，要消耗，就得多花钱。怎么让他们多花钱呢，政府想来想去，最后出了个主意，降息降准央行放水（鼓励通过信用创造债务，试错/消费需要资本供给；我没法虹吸，就吸自己老百姓的储蓄吧）。\n\n降息这事理解起来既容易又复杂，直观的感受就是你去银行贷款利息更少了，就可以贷更多的钱消费。而利息影响投资标的，比如你本来有几百万想去投资开饭店，算了下收益率只有4%，如果利息5%，你可能就不干了，毕竟躺着比投资都赚钱，那还折腾啥。如果现在降息到1%，存钱就不划算了，不如去投资，工作岗位就创造出来了，老百姓就加工资了。\n\n降息降准的成果\n降息后，市场确实充满了热钱，日本的钱，美国的钱都涌入日本投资，效果怎样呢，非常不怎么样。银行是最嫌贫爱富的，它贷款给你，都是要抵押的，你有上千万的房子，它随随便便贷款给你几百万，你没钱想贷点，轰你出门。相当于富人们手里一下子多了一堆钱，他们会去买电视冰箱洗衣机吗，谁家会花几百万去买这些东西。\n大家要知道一个情况，大钱和小钱的花法完全不是一回事，普通老百姓家里多了几千块，可能就会去改善生活，买点电器，主要是消费。但是如果你账上多恶劣上千万的银行贷款，吃喝是花不掉的，只能去投资，如果投资建厂还好，但是当时日本是产能过剩，厂子已经太多了，所以基本都投资到房地产和股市里了。\n日本富人疯狂去买房和股票这样的资产，随后资产价格上涨，中产阶级一看房价和股市都在起飞，赶紧把房子抵押了也去买，从银行贷出来更多的钱，房价股价进一步被推高，左脚踩右脚就飞起来了，国内一片欣欣向荣，看着和我国挺眼熟的。\n\n但日本政府慌的要死，因为他们知道，降息的目的不是为了拉房价，而是为了给企业消化过剩产能，现在产能没消化，企业都跑去贷款炒房炒股，日子怎么办？\n\n日本央行自89年起开始温和提高利率，降低货币供应，89年底三重野康出任日央行行长，这位中国东北长大的经济奇才极其讨厌投机，当时日本主流经济学家觉得投机是市场行为，市场是不会错的，所以他们送讨厌投机的三重野康一个“疯狂原始人”称号，认为他是中了计划经济的毒。为啥说他疯狂呢，因为他作风极端雷厉风行，甚至有点不顾后果。他上台后五次提高利息，在90年8月，利息由超低的2.5%飙升到6%，且银行不放水了，股市房市切断了货币供应，涨不动了，没人接盘了。随后就爆发股灾，三年跌掉一半多，楼市也没逃掉，晚于股市半年后开始动摇，随后激烈下跌，三年也跌掉了46%，上万亿日元资产化为乌有。\n三重野康之前，美联储主席沃尔克（79-87年间），也是一个强人，曾经大幅提高利率，把美国经济直接搞出三年萧条，不过一般认为沃尔克是一个伟大的美联储主席（半瓢水的鼓吹），有壮士断腕的决心，三重野康明显要做下一个沃尔克。\n\n79年彼时美国接连遭遇两次石油危机冲击，全国陷入滞胀危机，美元与金融体系摇摇欲坠，为抑制通胀水平，沃尔克提高联邦基准利率，紧缩政策初时效果不彰，不仅美元继续贬值，失业率也一度突破9.5%。紧缩政策虽导致卡特连任失败，但里根依然信任沃尔克，最终在82年迎来转机，通胀水平开始回落，股市摆脱近十年低迷，拉开一场史诗级牛市，持续到90年代（说白了靠里根大搞自由化，竞争不过日德，画了一个新大饼，市场经济活力军转民，确实引领了新经济，美元回流续了命。沃尔克只是在避免大而不能倒和削减投机扎实搞研发起到了一定的作用，作用完全没里根大）\n\n92年后，日本房价一直降，又降了50%，现在是在老龄化夹击下，恢复不上去了。\n来自日本的部分反思\n日本央行原行长白川方明提出，中国能从日本身上吸取什么样的教训？货币政策时常会被提及，日本过去 30 年的增长乏力的根源与所谓的通缩并无关联，根本原因首先是人口结构的恶化，其次在于日本经济和社会为适应全球化与技术变革等环境变化所做的艰难调整。\n经济增长的长期动力来源于『劳动力投入』和『生产率』的提升，日本劳动年龄人口自 90 年代中期达到峰值后持续下降，直接拖累了经济潜在增长率。劳动力减少意味着生产和消费的基础都在萎缩，同时老龄化社会导致社保负担加重，挤占了可用于经济增长的资源。当劳动力投入无法增长时，生产率就成为经济增长的唯一引擎，但日本的生产率增长在经历了告诉发展期后显著放缓。国内市场需求饱和增长停滞，企业缺乏扩大投资的强烈动机，加之几轮金融危机的冲击，企业的盈利和资产负债表几次遭遇重创（08 年再度重创已修复资产负债表的日企），迫使企业将目标从利润最大化转向债务最小化，抑制企业投资。随着全球化中，韩经济体的崛起，日本的诸多优势产业面临激烈竞争，产业升级和转型速度未能跟上全球化的步伐。\n通缩更多是经济低增长的结果，而非原因。仅仅靠激进的货币政策，无法解决人口老龄化和生产率低下等根本问题。\n如果用劳动人口人均 GDP 增长率来衡量，日本经济增速其实高于美国，但大家将通缩视为首要问题，所以祭出货币政策的解法，认为应当通过大量印钞或采取激进货币政策来解决，他认为中国不应轻信这类观点。\n插播一条近代韩国\n韩国是伴随着打压日本崛起的，一度也是日本的好学生，发展自身的同时也学来了一身的毛病，毛病层面更上一层楼。\n韩国继承了日本的躺平文化后，又多了一个投机文化，（杠杆化）疯狂炒美股买币。韩国当前处在一个尴尬的境地，向上突破不了，人口规模在那摆着，发展到现在的水平已经出乎意料。韩国内卷到了极致，因为创作比较自由，所以出了很多反映阶级的影视作品。\n东亚国家老百姓过得普遍苦，一个原因是东亚发展水平和人口数量决定的，注定很难过上欧美那种生活，但又过于在意阶级跃迁，跃迁成功固然好，失败的代价又有些承受不来。别为了一个低概率事件（赌博暴富）搞得自己活不下去，那才是真正的悲剧。\n\n代价小收益高的，可以搏一搏，但这种往往比较苦，不然大家都来搞了\n\n德国对策\n德国当时也没好办法，不过德国有惨痛通胀经历，对降息印钱这事比较敏感，就没着急降息，抑或考虑的比较通透（哲学修养深厚，对人性洞悉的也深刻），还**在苦恼的时候，好运降临，两德统一了**。\n到了90年，苏联眼瞅大势已去，两德人民统一愿望呼声很高，这事就开始聊上了。但这事，所有西方国家，都不希望德国统一，因为他统一了再发育发育，又变成欧洲一极，英法又得看其眼色。但当时西欧都是盟友，不好意思直接出手干预，都指望苏联修理德国，但苏联一言不发，看着德国统一了，把西方差点气死，当时法国总统没忍住，当场就说：苏联领导人到底收了多少马克？为啥不出兵阻止德国统一？\n为啥苏联不管呢，因为苏联是一堆加盟国的联盟，最大成员国是俄罗斯，俄一直觉得自己在联盟里比较吃亏，到了90年，俄罗斯自己想跑路，且跑路派已经充满了苏共高层（前面说的非市场经济，财政实在吃不住），他们巴不得盟友都跑了，那俄罗斯自己也就顺利脱身，当然不会管两德统一了。且法国人说的也对，俄罗斯人确实收了西德无数的钱，德国人有钱，觉得能用钱解决的问题都不是问题，为了两德统一他们愿意支付天价，还给俄罗斯人开出丰厚的价码，如永久放弃加里宁格勒（东普鲁士首府-哥尼斯堡，康德的故乡），成为俄罗斯的飞地。俄罗斯本来就不想留东德，又收了钱，又永久保住了加里宁格勒，就做了个顺水人情。\n两德统一德国一下子多出一块巨大的市场和人力资源池，大量廉价且受过高等教育的工人加入德国市场导致德国工人工资大幅下跌，制造业成本也就降下来了。因两德经济差距很大，为救济东德，德国政府通过了加税协议，对富人和富裕州征税，补贴东德地区。东德人收入增加后，就要买车买电视，德国自己增加了一大块内需，补充了消费力，本来卖不出去的那部分产能被东德消化了部分。\n德国当今产业人口现状\n据19年的数字，德国就业人口4552万\n\n农业，传统生产制造业，占比仅仅1/4，制造业吸收不了那么多人口，中国劳动力成本上升+老龄化，今后工厂里也难以像以往一样容纳那么多人口\n\n农业：57w\n制造业（1095w）：837w，建筑业258w\n服务业（3400w）：商业交通酒店1028w，企业服务商627w，信息通信/金融保险/房地产/公共服务/教育/健康 1748w\n来自《断层线》的评断\n不是每个国家都能成功实施外向型增长战略，这种战略随着国家的富裕而逐渐显现其局限性。上面的德日两国二战后，都不算真正的贫穷，它们拥有受教育程度很高的国民，明确的组织发展蓝图，只是经历战火资本储备大大减少，大企业崩溃或被占领当局压制，普通家庭无消费，出口成为它们解决问题的必由之路。\n随着经济的发展，德日工业部门每小时工资水平分别于1975年和1990年代赶上美国的水平，因此出口企业不再由于低工资在国际市场上享有相对优势，随着人均资本水平赶上发达经济体，但这些国家的贸易盈余最终会加剧本国货币的升值压力（宏观政策着眼于增加生产，家庭消费战后收到抑制）\n为了保持竞争力，德日都进入价值链上游，制造技术密集型产品，不断提高生产率。在贸易部门，两国做得都很不错，但非贸易部门，如建筑，零售和宾馆业这些外国竞争不存在的领域，生产增长率低下，这种在日本表现的尤为畸形，到过日本的人都惊奇的发现日本仍有专职女士为宾客升降电梯，这一工作能保存至今，说明这是一个没有竞争的服务领域。\n创造出口奇迹的国家看起来发展有点畸形，像只有一半肢体的人，效率奇高的生产部门和病态的服务部门并存，尽管国内需求萎靡却依然注重国外需求。\n难念的经也得念\n种花家当前就有这个问题，非常有钱的人几乎是不消费中国工业品的，主要买各种高端玩意，收入的大头都花在了资产上，消费才花几个钱。如果他们的财富转移支付一部分到穷人身上（当然一定是以法律税收的形式明明白白地转），穷人生活改善了，且穷人不可能每个月多2k块就去买奢侈品，主要消耗的是我国的产能，还可以抑制资产价格上涨。这套逻辑叫平衡战略，而不是简单地像日本那样操作。\n不过日本也是没招，日本没那么大一块外来天降资源，周围的国家中国和东南亚又不够富裕，暂时消费不起它的产品，远水解不了近渴。培育起来要时间（早期也不是为了培育外部市场，仅仅是为了降低自己的生产成本），不像一个国家里可以搞劫富济贫。\n这些年德国一直接受穆斯林难民，尽管老百姓不愿意，但国家政策要考虑大资本家的想法，引进受过教育的穆斯林，通过补贴和再教育，让他们成为德国工人，补充廉价劳动力，又可以提供内需。\n产业升级之路(技术拉动经济)，必然是集中攻坚之路，这条路上旧有产业产能必然转移/淘汰，调结构过程不会是轻松愉快的过程。\n只谈消费不谈分配\n财富分配的过去，今天和未来。PRC 也经历过三个阶段：\n\n平均主义时期（实际从 57 年开始），大锅饭也的确到后来生产效率不高。\n第二个阶段多劳多得，兼顾公平。但初次分配单纯的多劳多得很有公平问题，因为地域地理本就不公平，加之市场的马太效应太强大，在初次分配阶段资源向有钱人集中的太快，非强力不可逆转。\n从 04 年开始强调促公平，甚至到后来提出了三次分配的概念。三次分配是捐赠，换句话说施舍，只能是辅助作用，解决不了问题。\n\n通过你对初次分配的观察分析，很多人并没有发展起来，并不是他们不够努力，只是当今的发展方向并不适合他们，他们牺牲了自己的发展前景换来了社会的进步，那么理应是发展起来的人需要对他们进行补偿，而不是施舍。\n只能靠二次分配，也叫再分配来平衡解决问题。西方的二次分配做的好的，都是地小人稀的地方，北欧五国最大的瑞典，和黑龙江差不多大，最小的丹麦就和哈尔滨一样大。瑞典全国只有 70 多家公立医院和 6 家私立医院，这 70 几家医院足以服务全部瑞典人。\n而黑龙江要建2185 个医疗机构（2022 年的数据，其中含专科疾病防治院 28 个，妇幼保健院 116 个），黑龙江的人口也只有瑞典的 3 倍而已。再分配效率低是因为我们人口分散，瑞典城市化率 88%，把医院建在城市里就足以覆盖绝大部分人口，而我们是 60%多，墨西哥都有 80%，由于我们地域实在辽阔，剩余 30%的人分布在各种犄角旮旯，安土重迁思维使得即便发展不畅也不愿意离开自己的家乡。但凡有人的地方，我们的基建即便跋山涉水也必须跟上，如果没有二次分配，很多地方连医院学校都养不起。\n搞城镇化本质就是让大家富起来，医疗只是一个侧面，反映着我们的分配成本。在保障公平方面，我们还做了哪些？提高退休金，提高福利保障，扶贫，乡村振兴，可以说做的还不够好，不能像某些人说的什么都没做，但总有人说我怎么感觉不到，怎么不发钱云云。这是因为我们绝大多数是以间接方式运行，没有补贴的公交车价格最少翻 5 倍，直接发钱只会加速不公的出现，底层人收到钱基本只有两条出处：偿还负债+消费。偿还负债会迅速流回金融机构，金融的慕强性，会快速流入富裕人群和发达地区。消费的部分被部分老板赚到集中，然后带着钱去更高级的地方消费。总之钱会以各种形式回到产业源头的发达地区，偏远地区啥也没剩下，还不如人为增加投资这道关卡，基建的本质也是一种二次分配。基建的钱多数来自于转移支付，以工代赈可增加当地人的初次分配收入，还能给贫困地区留下很多物资资产，拉长这笔资金在贫困地区的流通时长。\n二次分配我国做得不错，但最终更彻底解决问题还是要靠初次分配的适时调整。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"别2021，迎2022","url":"/%E5%88%AB2021-%E8%BF%8E2022.html","content":"\n环境变革与内省调整\n2021年是一个肃杀之年，听到最多的词就是内卷和动荡。广纳贤才的大厂也开始只出不进了，年轻人创业卷，连楼底下的奶茶店，都开出了奈雪的茶和蜜雪冰城。卷，这个词，似乎成了这两年经济的主旋律，但这不代表你能躺平，逃避，而相反这时候最适合你悄悄努力。人这一生，读书和赚钱是最好的修行。读书不仅可让人不惑，更可让人心有尊严（虽然尊严也需要护法神）。\n可惜成长总是会伴随着告别和失去，走着走着你发现身边的人都换了，你的同窗，你的旧友联系越来越少了，你的父母早已两鬓斑白半身入土了。但你似乎什么都没来得及做，时间就把这些悄悄剥夺，猜人生到头来就是不断的放下，只是永远最令人痛心的就是没来得及好好道别。\n人生的本质就是一个人去活着，不要对别人心存太多期待，我们总是想要找到能为自己分担痛苦和悲伤的人，可大多数时候，你以为的惊天动地生无可恋的伤痛，在别人眼里不过是随手拂过的尘埃。人生不易，只有经历过黑暗和无助，你才能感恩生活中的一切习以为常。\n你胸怀大志，去大城市去创业去追梦，我生而俗常，选择简单平凡的守候也是一种人生。人活一世，草木一秋，活着本身就是人生的意义。我们要学会认清现实，接受自己的失败甚至平庸，到头来无非还是柴米油盐酱醋茶，琴棋书画诗酒花。而这些物质和精神世界的核心组成，真的用不到太多财富，更用不到每个人都去追求财富自由。\n人生最大的自由就是懂得与自己的过去和缺陷和解，学会悲喜自渡，星海横流，岁月成碑，生如逆旅，一苇以航。就这样让我们与2021道别吧，与过去的自己道别，与失去的人和遗憾的事道别。站在新的起点上一起拥抱2022，期待新的开始，也愿每个人都能平安喜乐，得偿所愿。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["心理","时代"]},{"title":"别2024迎2025","url":"/%E5%88%AB2024%E8%BF%8E2025.html","content":"\n2024 成为大周期转折的共识年，LPR 年内三次下调。提前还贷倒逼了降存量房贷，前两天央行行长，说存准还有下降空间，也意味着利息下降的空间不大了，金融监管总局披露二季度商业银行净息差均值是 1.54%，跌过 1.8%的警戒线了。大家从几年前的买房、创业，憧憬 跌跌撞撞到还贷、躺平，深思。\n\n部分年度关键词\n一揽子增量政策\n赶在国庆节前上马一系列劫贫济富重磅拉抬政策，解救玩杠杆要爆仓的资本家，A 股上证一周拉抬 1000 点，重返 3600，年度最后最后一天收盘定格 3351。可惜没有直接收割到 60、70的钱，收割了60、70小孩的钱，也算是曲线救国。\n咱们就不说近的这场人造小牛。从有人做的 2014.7~2015.2这一小段牛市从酝酿到破灭期间上交所4000万投资者样本调查复盘看资本量和结果的关系，虽有全部日频持仓信息和交易记录，但没从交易动向来分析，而是端到端拉通看结果。\n\n《Wealth Redistribution in Bubbles and Crashes》，2022 发表于《Journal of Monetary Economics》\n\n在这个调查中，将个人账户分为 4 组\n\n\n0-50 万元，占比 85%，累计损益$-$2500 亿\n\n\n50 万元-300 万元，占比 12.5%，累计损益 $-$420 亿\n\n\n300 万-1000 万元，占比 2%，累计损益 440 亿\n\n\n1000 万元以上，占比 0.5%，累计损益 2540 亿\n\n\n只有 2.5%的高净值投资者在那轮行情波动中是赚钱的，85%的普通投资者的 2500 亿左右的资金被 0.5%的高端投资者给赢走了。\n止跌回稳\n10.17 日，住房和城乡建设部联合四大中央部门打出一套“组合拳”：四个取消，四个降低，两个增加。这套组合拳比 12.31 日《上海市加快完善生育支持政策体系推动建设生育友好型社会的若干措施》12 条，要有诚意的多，哈哈，毕竟确实降了存量贷款利率，生育友好型社会的若干措施就像是满船的喇叭一样的既视感，表明他们并不真想解决问题，只是给上方演一出我在全面思考，全面举措的戏。退一步想，他们知道问题解决不了，再退一步想，抑或他们完全不知道如何解决，当权者私，肉食者鄙，均有可能。\n期待房价像股市般触底反弹并不现实，过去几年的房价只能算是处于相对低位，止跌回稳这一说法也很明确，目标并非制造再次繁荣，消化库存，维持房价稳定才是第一要义。所以现行的结果也很明显：你放出了除降价以外的一切措施，我提供除购买以外的一切支持。\n其实止跌回稳这四个字，已是良苦用心，用以稳住一些城市的税收和饭碗，而不是提倡都去买。毕竟不提一个涨字难道是为了避谁的讳？此四个字其真正的含义就是慢慢下跌，平稳着陆。不能实话实说，是要拿时间换空间。如果明确告知房地产时代要过去了，人们都懂了，都去抛，那么价格，市场，就业都要崩，还在还房贷的人，心态也要崩掉，雪崩对谁都是不好的。\n我们的国家经历大基建后，现在的状态确实和当年的日本最为接近，房地产泡沫，年轻人失业，通缩，发国债，同样人口锐减（更甚之），水泥壳子多。水泥壳子猛涨的时间就是完成了它的一个历史使命，税收任务。现在疲软了，聪明人都会发现他是不能等的了，就像聪明人不会等股票深套一样。政府要的是高效率，决策找新方向。涨价肯定也是新玩法，新产品了，旧的装备在新版游戏中就是标配了。新游戏版本还告诉你旧版神装会涨价的，不是蠢那就是纯坏，因为他囤多了，让你接盘而已。\n\n任何一个国家不能轻易号召一个具体的事情，号召了你也要反着来。不是说假话，而是方向不能说的太具体。例如摆摊挣钱，你闷声摆就好（除了黄赌毒，一切正经生意，都不会拦着你），国家说摆摊挣钱，那你就快点跑，他的报道是对个例的总结和提振士气用的，不是让所有人都进场卷的，都进场卷，就都没钱赚了。\n\n延迟退休\n延迟退休9月落地，同步启动延迟男、女职工法定退休年龄。用 15 年的时间推进延迟 3 年。我国人均预期寿命达到 78.6 岁（全球平均 72）。能否顺利领到退休金，还是要看个人造化。有人能拉满40年后正常退休，自然死亡，也有驴肉火烧，阿胶的运数。不是所有人都能享受赶集的生活。\n\n在社科院的《中国养老金精算报告2019-2050》\n\n\n当期结余短暂地增长到2022年，然后从2023年便开始下降，到2028年当期结余首次出现负数，此当期结余是在“大口径”（包括财政补助）情况下测算得到的。如果不考虑财政补助，即在“小口径”情况下，当期结余在2019年就已经是负值，而且下降的更快\n\n\n累计结余将于2027年达到峰值并在2035年耗尽\n\n\n基金可支付月数两极分化趋势依然明显\n\n\n\n中国过境免签\n中国 144 小时过境免签，便利特定国家旅客来华，不少外国人也体验了一把&quot;特种兵式旅行&quot;，不少中老年欧美人一看一个不吱声。政策后，入境游客显著增加，上半年免签入境外国人高达 854.2 万，占比 52%，同比增长 190.1%。\n阿勒泰\n阿勒泰火了，成了打工『牛马』的精神故乡，是轻盈生活态度的一种意象映射，上半年阿勒泰地区接待游客同比增长 30.25%。剧中，开小卖部的张凤侠和女儿李文秀间有一场对话。女儿问：我虽笨手笨脚，但我还是个有用的人，对吧？妈妈说道：啥叫有用？生你下来是为了让你服务别人的？你看看这个草原上的树，草，有人吃有人用，便叫有用，要是没人用，就这么待在草原上也很好嘛！\n通缩\n按凯恩斯学派的说法，通货紧缩的本质是有效需求不足，换句话说，钱被有些人收藏起来了。\n说老百姓恶意存款的专家和嘲笑老百姓买不起眉笔的网红，悄悄吃你的肉，别吧唧嘴了。\n周处除三害\n可能大篇幅涉及邪教诈骗揭露，暴力镜头这么明显的电影破天荒的过审。影片的成功，也捧红了里面的“洗脑神曲”《新造的人》，魔性的旋律嵌入人心，很多观众都会唱了。邪教控制人心的手段，歌曲是最直接高效的伎俩之一：无数次重复成为肌肉记忆，伴随着朗朗上口的律动，邪教麻痹人心的教义，锥入人的灵魂之中。\n我没有背叛工人阶级\n\n童润中被网友亲切称为「润中同志」，用《宪法》和《毛选》捍卫自身利益，硬刚资本，火爆全网。而后视频被全部下架。\n胖东来也被媒体围剿过，但其在河南的区域经营也还是愈发火爆。\n\n在乌鸦的眼中，天鹅都是有病的：\n胖东来有一个问题是：用人成本较高，06 年给保洁 2000~2500，高过市场 50%以上。零售是一个高劳动密集型的行业，在这个行业，把人工成本做得这么高是很危险的。DL 一年营收几十亿，去年净利润 1.4 亿，这不是对所有企业都适用的模式。另外，DL 没有模仿转向全渠道经营，线下做得再强也仍有提升空间。\n监听则明\n外资的全国连锁商超已经证明了不成功，永辉这样的全国连锁这几年也业绩不佳，一方面可能是模式不行，另一面是商品力出了问题：\n\n模式不行是因为大卖场这种业态在一二线城市没有太大空间，与人们的消费习惯需求不匹配，目前仓储会员模式、精品路线、小店前置仓等还有空间；\n商品问题在于，产品和需求不匹配，同样的商品，在购买力不同的地区，表现会不一样” 。\n\nDL 算是区域零售的佼佼者，但也不具备扩张和复制的条件。在高工资地区，靠薪资激励员工的成本会更高，同样的 1000 在三线和一线在基数比例上的影响就显出差距了。\n黑神话\n游戏 8.20 日登录几大平台，迅速登顶多个平台的销量榜首。首发 3 天内全球销量超 1000 万份，一个月超 2000 万份，成为有史以来销售速度最快游戏之一。大家称赞其在战斗系统、视觉设计及世界观方面的构建。游戏谁都能融合中国的文化和自然地标，也融入了佛道两教的哲学元素。\n游戏由游戏科学于2017 年开始开发，于 2020 年 8 月 20 日公布首段实机演示视频，目标是向通过视频吸引开发人才，毕竟最初开发团队只有 7 个人。游科的底子团队，曾经在腾讯参与开发过斗战神，可惜游戏未能获得成功，这次算是梦想的延续。游戏开发成本超过 3 亿人民币，销售收入超过 73 亿，大赚特赚。\n游戏动漫的确更容易扩大文化输出的接触面，且是潜移默化植根在别人脑子里，对方还花钱买，这比孔子学院有效的多。但铺天盖地的宣传文化输出，就有些操之过急了，也显得太不高明，这档子事能说么。任重道远，各位天命人直面天命吧。\nOther\n巴黎奥运随性松弛，巴以冲突一年多了，特朗普再次上台，25 年多放 2 天假。\n时代\n经历过「全球化」和「互联网两次革命」带来的高速增长后，全球经济已步入寒冬，高速的中国经济第一次遇到了经济增速的降速停滞，日本经济停滞多年后，以安倍被刺丧失了仅存的一点金融主权。\n全球空虚的经济浮在泡沫之上，只有股市和通胀在上升。\n欧盟过去一直受高福利和多元化困扰，现在又陷入通胀的泥潭，对内四分五裂，外部又虎视眈眈，徘徊在战争边缘。\n美国过去由于蓝领和中产多年收入的停滞，导致川普的崛起，提出一系列反全球化的政经主张，疫情后被迫走上疯狂加息的钉子路，现陷入债务黑洞，政经陷入多方对抗的局面，底下一帮小弟各怀鬼胎，现有世界经济发展模式正面临分崩离析的可能，面临一次大的危机和大变局。拜登就是现在美国的象征，谁都知道他有大问题，觉得他好像随时会垮掉，很多人讨厌他，但暂时无法摆脱他，他虽然年老体衰，但经验老道，积累深厚，时不时又会回光返照，你可以笑话他，但最好不要低估他，如果这样的人是你的对手，最好的做法是充分了解他，然后做好自己的事情，因为时间站在我们这边。\n过冬\n在即将到来的经济寒冬中该如何度过，这种大的趋势对个人来说，选择的余地很少，在时代洪流面前，个人宛如蝼蚁，除了顺势而为，别无他法，能做的只能是调整自己的心态。\n\n首先做好长期过冬的准备，这个冬天也许很漫长，是一次世界性大衰退的调整\n其次不要贪婪，在经济寒冬中，各路资金犹如釜底鱿鱼轮番炒作，不要眼红人家炒债炒股发大财，没有经济基本面的支撑，这些炒作不过是搏杀赌博而已，谁接最后一棒就是傻子，普通小民资讯见识都无法跟大佬相比，后知后觉的羊群效应只会追涨杀跌，冲进去的时候都是高位站岗，做了炮灰，所以要有定力，任尔东西南北风，咬定青山不放松。普通人青山，立身之本就是一技之长，没事锻炼下身体，找点乐子，开心搬砖就好。\n最后不要恐惧，社会和时代在进步，历史不会重复过去的错误，在核武导致恐惧均衡的今天，各大国不会发生全面战争，至多是经济上的冷战和代理人战争。在科技发达生产力过剩的今天，大饥荒之类都是无稽之谈，寒冬是财富再分配，经济再平衡的过程，日子艰难，但活下去绝对没问题。\n\n悲观者正确，乐观者赢得未来\n中国真正发展起来靠的底色是中国人的勤奋，辅以杠杆，卷遍全球。我们从中低端已经在往高端走，从欧美人视角中，他们是很尴尬的，因为不能往下走，往上增长只能带动下一步的技术革命，否则永远都是缩量缩量，对我们则不然，我们的天花板远远还没达到。核心点就在于如何产业升级，外面全是蓝海。\n过往中国真正的人口红利同步全球，二战后的婴儿潮，50~70 年第一波。劳动力供给逆转大概要到 2040 年，届时 80 后不如退休，10 后成为职场主力。\n教育红利\n\n\n75后开始大学毕业的 96 年，那时大学毕业生 84w 人，只占当年出生人口的3.77%，占总人口的 1/1547，差不多是说千里挑一，毕业非常吃香\n\n\n85年，当年毕业 377w，占同年 18.1%，5 个人里一个大学生\n\n\n95 后，765w 应届生，36.46%的大学生渗透率，依然还是有他的价值\n\n\n00 后毕业人数 1174w，渗透率 60.2%，大学生比高中及以下的人更多，明显的产能过剩。在趋势面前头悬梁锥刺股以为混得文凭就可以了是自己骗自己\n\n\n增长红利\n只有有变化则就有机会，未来十年真正的增长红利在哪？技术红利和文化自信的红利。\n\n大学生红利。创业一定要做跟大学生相关的产业，如高端制造，中国高素质人才最多最便宜，供应链也最全。就业赛道也很好赚。80 后的红利是金融和移动互联网，90 和 00 后更偏向智能制造，转变思路，而不是办公室白领的模式，才能博得更多上市的机遇。\n70 后的退休红利，中国最幸福的一拨人，充分享受了经济的大发展，基本都买了房，还没赶上退休红利。有钱有房无负债，还有养老金。解决 70 后养老的生活，尤其是女性，则一定有赚。这波人在高端消费上花钱是如流水的。这波人和 50、60 不一样的，会自己消费不完全给儿女攒着。\n口红经济，娱乐诉求。游戏，自行车，算是一种消费降级。\n对孩子的经济，二胎。大尺寸 SUV，销售还是好。\n90 后的悦己经济：演唱会，增长了 400%。国潮，旅游…\n\n\n大部分人就是懒惰和懦弱嘛，生活在 1900 年前后，劝你去闯上海，劝你去租界扛麻袋给老外推独轮车，你会说，没办法呀，还是科举考试好，科举考试我可以做官，推独轮车多辛苦，被老外鄙视还挣不着钱，万一我在上海饿死了怎么办。劝你闯大洋彼岸，你又来一堆理由，论证来论证去还是科举最好。所以只需一个勇气就能改变很多事\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"办公AI生产力工具","url":"/%E5%8A%9E%E5%85%ACAI%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7.html","content":"\n员工生产力工具创新发展很快，现在普遍在营销宣传，产品设计，交互体验，编码提效方面老板们关注度很高，应秉行拿来主义，重视外部风险+催动变化。\n\n\n\n工作领域\n产品名称\n境内\n功能简介\n服务模式\n收费方式\n优劣势分析\n适用岗位\n\n\n\n\n图像生成\nfigma\n\n在线协作工具、支持 UI/UX设计、原型制作与版本控制的团队共同编辑协作。\n线上网页\n$540/年\n设计研发提效，主流产品更新及时，可预见性的 AI 功能强大\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\nMastergo\n$\\checkmark$\n专注于设计协作和项目管理的工具，提供从设计到开发的全流程支持。支持多人协作、设计系统管理及与开发团队的无缝对接\n线上网页\n￥2016/设计师/年\nAI 生成页面，设计研发提效，可本地部署，可导出\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n即梦\n$\\checkmark$\n字节跳动出品的 AI 生图、视频制作与分享平台Agent创作：一句话做任何你想做的任务生图：文生图/参考生图（角色特征、人像写真、主体识别、风格参考、人物姿势）生视频：文生视频/图生视频数字人：对口型视频+声音、视频动作模仿画布：图片精修（局部重绘、扩图、消除、抠图、细节修复）\n线上网页\n多套餐，连续包年 现 7 折优惠后：基础会员：￥659/年/人（约 4.3k 张图/月，216 个视频/月）标准会员￥1899/人年（月 16k 张图，800 视频）高级会员￥5199/人年（月 60k 张图，3k 视频）\n优：可进行创意广告、电影级制作，质量高生成速度快劣：视频质量略逊色于可灵平台\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n墨刀\n$\\checkmark$\n支持通过自然语言或草图快速生成原型页面，可在墨刀编辑器中二次调整，生成结构化页面同时支持与前端代码的联动1. 文本输入生成原型:\n私有化部署\n可企业版购买服务￥599/席位/年，也可私有化部署400-659-9879\n优：在需求初期、方案快速验证或内部演示阶段提升生产力，将构思快速转为具象原型劣：需求中后期生成效率可能无人为调整快\n产品类、设计类\n\n\n视频工具\nprinciple\n\n原型和交互设计工具，支持创建流畅动画和交互效果，提供直观界面和丰富的设计资源，帮助设计师快速制作高质量原型\n卓面软件\n$129/一次性(一年更新权限)，一年后继续更新续费99/年\n快速产出交互动画，提供 demo 演示\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\nLottie\n\n基于 Adobe After Effects 的开源动画库，支持将复杂动画导出为 JSON 格式，方便在移动应用和网页中实现流畅动画效果。应用于图标动画、加载动画和交互设计，帮助开发者快速实现高质量动态效果\n卓面软件\n$239.88/年\n优：更小内存动效文件输出劣：长城限制\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n可灵\n$\\checkmark$\n快手出品：AI 生图、 视频制作与分享平台生图：文生图/参考生图/风格转绘生视频：文生视频/图生视频/多模态编辑（替换元素等）生音：文生音效/视频生音效AI 试衣：AI 模特/AI换装其它：对口型/视频延长\n线上网页\n多套餐，连续包年 现 7 折优惠黄金会员：￥554/人年（每月3.3k 张图，33 个标准视频）铂金会员：￥2234/人年（月 15k 图，150 视频）钻石会员：￥5594/人年（月 40k 图，400 视频）黑金会员:￥11079/人年（月 130k 图，1300 个视频）\n优：视频生成质量和面面细致度高。通常生图用即梦，生视频用可灵劣：生图能力、图生图理解能力明显逊色即梦\n设计类、宣传类、营销类\n\n\n\n剪映\n$\\checkmark$\n服务于内容运营视频剪辑工具、有丰富特效库和预设模板，能对视频进行只能剪辑与创作（消除、扩展、音频分离）,可一键生成字母，多轨编辑与合成\n桌面软件\n个人版：￥499/年30团队版：￥1.7w/年\n优：智能化程度高、支持数字人视频生成，画面 AI 消除，素材库丰富（音乐，特效、转场、滤镜、音色）劣：定位仅为已有视频的剪辑工具\n营销类\n\n\n\n小云雀\n$\\checkmark$\n剪映团队推出的内容创作 Agent，支持一句话生成短视频、数字人口播、AI 设计（文生图）、AI 换背景等，强调『自动化+可控性』结合，适用于电商带货、品牌营销等强网感内容生产\n桌面软件\n常规功能免费，高级功能￥759/年，或连续包月￥50/月\n创作门槛极低：一句话生成完整视频，零基础，生成内容传播力强流程可控：关键节点提供修改入口且通过自主任务完成最后结果的输出\n短视频运营、电商直播策划、初级剪辑师\n\n\n文稿起草\nPAMI\n$\\checkmark$\n面向产品经理的 AI 驱动原型设计工具，支持通过语言描述需求快速生成高保真原型、输出解决方案\n线上网页\n年费 ￥128.8\n适用于：部分解决方案思路扩充；基础场景需求说明，简单的流程图、时序图，页面原型图的快速调整布局劣：复杂方案无法直接生成使用\n产品类、设计类\n\n\n\nkimi\n$\\checkmark$\n擅长超长文本处理、多轮对话优化，适用于通用类长文写作和资料分析场景（总结、研报），PPT 生成能力佳\n线上网页\n个人免费、企业级 API 接口按量计费\n优：支持 200 万字上下文，适配 PDF、word\\excel\\ppt等多种文件格式，能处理各类复杂文档劣：文档数量过多或大小超限影响输出表现，图片识别解析能力有限\n项目类、产品类\n\n\n\nwps AI\n$\\checkmark$\n支持团队知识库的智能知识问答、支持特色公文 AI，有专属政务模型(13B)，生成内容更符合党政公文需求\n线上网页、桌面软件\n支持年度订阅、按用户数或场地授权模式\n优：基于 WPS Office 客户端使用，用户体验友好劣：需集中部署 AI 服务，结合可调优的 WPS 文档中台\n各类岗位\n\n\n音频工具\n豆包\n$\\checkmark$\n语音交互类 AI 产品，擅长语音识别，语音合成等\n线上网页、桌面软件、移动 App\n基础功能免费，企业使用按调用量收费\n优：语音识别准确率高，响应速度快劣：复杂语音场景下表现待提升，个性化定制能力有限\n客服类、营销类、宣传类\n\n\n\n讯飞听见\n$\\checkmark$\n语音交互领先企业，提供语音识别、合成、翻译等多种语音 AI 服务\n线上网页、API 或 SDK\n个人限额免费、企业套餐 960 小时/人年起步，可按定制化解决方案收费\n优：老牌头部 TTS 厂商，识别准确率 98%，支持 11 种语言，17 类专业领域优化，功能稳定劣：多模态能力弱，高端定制化解决方案价格高\n客服类、培训类（多会议办公企业）\n\n\nExcel 分析\n商汤小浣熊\n$\\checkmark$\n对 Excel、CSV、Json文件进行数据处理、建模分析、数据统计分析。分析结果可视化展示，除数据文件外科支持连接数据库进行实时分析\n线上网页、桌面软件、SDK 或 API\n按并发用户量阶梯计费年度订阅、也支持永久许可\n优：用代码解释器方案，具数据分析规划和反思机制，数据分析准确率高，支持多种数据格式，多文件/多数据表关联分析，数据可视化图标样式丰富劣：与 WPS 未对接，深度分析能力仍然有限\n经营分析、销售、采购、营销、财务、IT、人力资源、项目管理等\n\n\nPPT 生成\niSlide AI 与 PPT 插件\n$\\checkmark$\n有企业专属设计平台和中央品牌素材库，将 VI 规范（字体、颜色）预置，自动应用，保持品牌输出一致性。管理和数据分析能力强：通过统一的权限管理，精细控制不同团队对模板和素材的访问、使用权限。后台仪表盘监控素材库使用情况，为优化企业内若资产提供数据支撑\n线上网页、桌面软件、SDK 或 API\n首年 ￥68 万起，个性化定制按实际开发时间计费\n优：降低专业门槛，解决只会做内容，不会做设计的普遍痛点。具有海量资源库和强品牌一致性管控劣：不满足深度定制个性化生成需求\n市场营销、销售、产品经理、人力资源、财务和数据分析、企业高管\n\n\n代码生成\ncursor\n\n美国 Anysphere 公司开发的 AI 编程工具，能根据自然语言描述生成代码，实现代码智能补全、全工程级理解等\n线上网页、桌面软件\n订阅制，企业版按账户 $384/年\n优：集成 GPT-4 和 Claude3.5 双引擎，代码生成准确率高，能实现全工程级理解，与 VSCode 无缝集成劣：对于复杂需求需多次细化才能达到理想效果\n开发岗、编程初学者、数据分析师\n\n\n\nTRAE\n$\\checkmark$\n字节编程工具，能理解需求，调动工具，独立完成开发任务的 AI 工程师，可快速搭建 Demo\n桌面软件\n\n劣：易用性不如 cursor\n研发，产品、经设计师\n\n\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI"]},{"title":"十年看趋势","url":"/%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9C%8B%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF.html","content":"\n万元美金时代，技术的趋势，让文章说的部分内容有接近实现的可能，有些夸张的做了摘取删减，同议题的主题合并表达。毕竟做研判，都是外行看内行。保持一直开放的头脑是我们一直要追求的。\n\n2020，中国在全球疫情下表现非凡，也直面了贸易新格局的焦头烂额挑战。10年后看今天，未来那辉煌的起点，从今天开始。\n\n芯片行业巨变\nIntel被人工智能浪潮抛下，几成定局，这是技术更替带来的结果，也向我们揭示了，企业一旦停止前沿技术布局，就注定跟不上这个时代\n\n虚实融合的世界努力尝试\nIphone12将激光雷达带到手机上，只相当于一个起步，工业化上更有用，但挡不住人类一切娱乐化的决心\n人工智能继续加码发展\nAI医疗风口正在到来\n例如通过对眼底的观察来判断并筛查早期糖尿病，各种AI技术都将下到AI医疗的赛道，促成蓬勃发展，股市会为之疯狂\nAI技术全面渗透各行业\n有成本革命的大动机\n无人机的战争理论革命\n未来战争规则会发生巨变，投入巨额经费，研发高顶尖导弹的专家可能没意识到，一堆廉价无人机机海战术是他们的新挑战\n智能制造\n3D打印，印刷技术造显示屏幕等。印刷原理虽然简单，但制造里有大量的高科技，有非常多的know-how在里面，这是中国制造优势的体现。制造也是高科技，也要前瞻性布局，提前预埋下一轮新技术\n生物科技经历一场产业变革\n喊了20多年的生物的世纪，慢慢在降临。生物技术催生的产业变革，也是一大high点，化学药–&gt;生物药–&gt;生物治疗\n基因编辑也在产业结合，人们通过健康管理和科技手段越来越长寿\n能源焦虑或被攻克\n清洁能源在慢慢缓解能源焦虑，未来的终极解决方案是可燃冰与可控核聚变，这些还远。临时解页岩气和太阳能可以顶一小段\n人造肉\n豆制品模仿肉的口感，后续合成生物学可能直接培育肉，人类贪婪的食欲和成本可以得到一个更好的平衡。\n全球化仍是大概率事件\n逆全球化声音存在，但资本还是推动全球化隐性回归，科技全球化还是大概率事件，由奢入简难。\n\n2024年宣导的新型工业化\n\n人形机器人\n脑机接口\n元宇宙\n下一代互联网\n6G\n量子科技\n原子级制造\n深空海天开发\n\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["IT","生物"]},{"title":"协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记","url":"/%E5%8D%8F%E5%90%8C%E8%BF%87%E6%BB%A4%E5%B0%8F%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\nCollaborative filtering\n\n\n10年之前就接触了协同过滤的概念内容，但常学常新。最近因为要在Spark MLlib中浅显应用一把，发现整体的工业界做法已经进步了很多。脑中知识的框架又有更新，记录下来，利于随机存取与向外概念贩售。\n术语表\n显性反馈\n\n用户明确表示对物品喜好的行为\n\n隐性反馈\n\n不能明确反应用户喜好的行为。在许多的现实生活中的很多场景中，我们常常只能接触到隐性的反馈。如浏览，点击，购买，喜欢，分享\n\n\n两大方向\nMemory-based\n这个普及的很多了，基于关注的目标，又分基于用户和基于项目两大类。除非是为了交友，否则都会转向项目推荐的数据变现目的地，一个相似消费过的东西（也靠留下的人的痕迹），一个相似的人消费过的东西。\n基于用户\n\n通过用户对共同物品的“主观价值”来筛选相似用户，再互补评分高的物品，从而达到推荐物品（项目）的目的\n\n比较直观的协同过滤，是基于用户这一种，通过“臭味相投”的线索来做。\n基于项目\n\n通过用户集体对商品集的评价，在物品的角度上去寻找相似度高的物品，达到推荐物品的效果\n\n物品相似度的计算用上协同过滤，是基于用户的一种变体。通过查看哪些人喜欢某一特定物品，再看这些人喜欢哪些其它物品来决定物品距离（用相似度概念不贴切）。这种变体仅相当于数据结构的反转。\n&#123; &quot;jim&quot;:&#123;&quot;a&quot;:2.5,&quot;b&quot;:3.5&#125;, &quot;kate&quot;:&#123;&quot;a&quot;:3.0,&quot;b&quot;:3.5&#125;&#125;\n转变成\n&#123; &quot;a&quot;:&#123;&quot;jim&quot;:2.5,&quot;kate&quot;:3.0&#125;, &quot;b&quot;:&#123;&quot;jim&quot;:3.5,&quot;kate&quot;:3.5&#125;&#125;\n最终计算一个物品与物品之间距离的矩阵表格\n映射现实-此反转运用在帮零售商找到清仓物品的潜在客户方面，很直观。\n总结\n且一般来说，用户行为有更加明显的冷启动问题，且绝大部份用户都只生产过稀疏的显性反馈记录（评价评分），对数据集的使用利用度来说，尚不及基于项目的方式（起码热门物品集，有显性反馈的可能性较大）。\n基于物品的计算，就更加聚焦高效。数据积累到一定量，物品的特征定义就更加稳定，物品间的比较不会像用户间的比较那么频繁变化，无需不停计算与每样物品最相近的其它物品，也可以削峰平谷的更高效利用计算资源。\n弱势\n\n物品之间的相关性，随着特征维度的增加，其计算量并不是线性增加\n在稀疏数据集上，计算结果随着增减向量维度，计算结果不稳定\n\nModel-based\n回应如上弱势，大家就想到更线性更通用的解法来做这个事情，这样模型就出场了。模型里常见的是矩阵分解。\n将用户和物品的矩阵，分解为用户因子矩阵和项目因子矩阵两个矩阵的乘积（两个矩阵乘回去，期望得到一个饱满的用户评分矩阵）。什么是项目因子乘积，咱们来举几个例子图就比较容易理解了。\n稀疏数据集\n\n\n单曲循环=5, 分享=4, 收藏=3, 主动播放=2 , 听完=1, 跳过=-2 , 拉黑=-5\n\n如上，原始用户数据集稀疏，很难相互推荐（用户本身听过的歌就不够多），现在目标就是要让数据饱满起来。\n矩阵分解的数学基础是行列式变换：行变换相当于A左乘一个矩阵，矩阵A进行列变换等价于矩阵A右乘一个矩阵，因此矩阵A可以表示为$A=PEQ=PQ$（E是标准阵）\n$n\\times m \\approx (n\\times k) \\times (k\\times m)$\n\n$m$ 是用户数，$n$ 是音乐数量，左侧矩阵是用户对音乐的评分，右侧是音乐在隐空间的表达和用户在隐空间的表达，二者结果尽可能逼近左侧。即由抽取的用户属性和音乐属性，尽可能还原出大型评分矩阵。这一分解通常也被称为 UV 分解\n\n咱上面接着的例子展开，$k$ 矩阵，可以看作可量化的音乐风格因子。\n用户因子\n\n\n\n\n小清新\n重口味\n优雅\n伤感\n五月天\n\n\n\n\n张三\n0.6\n0.8\n0.1\n0.1\n0.7\n\n\n李四\n0.1\n0\n0.9\n0.1\n0.2\n\n\n王五\n0.5\n0.7\n0.9\n0.9\n0\n\n\n\n项目因子\n\n\n\n\n小清新\n重口味\n优雅\n伤感\n五月天\n\n\n\n\n音乐A\n0.9\n0.1\n0.2\n0.4\n0\n\n\n音乐B\n0.5\n0.6\n0.1\n0.9\n1\n\n\n音乐C\n0.1\n0.2\n0.5\n0.1\n0\n\n\n\n你可以用最大似然的办法来计算这些权重。\n求权重矩阵\nALS\n\nAlternating Least Squares - 交替最小二乘\n\n因为两个权重矩阵都是未知的，无法直接求得，所以每次要假设一个矩阵已知，做最小二乘迭代，交替进行。（ALS是一种对目标函数进行优化的方法，通过先固定其他维度，在单独对某一维度进行更新）\nSVD\n\nSingular Value Decomposition - 奇异值分解\n\n略\nSpark内置协同过滤算法\nMLlib的ALS Demo例子，这个例子排版清晰，步骤细致，做初步试验学习是最好的参照。Spark的MLlib，实现的ALS算法，已经提供了显性和隐性反馈的版本，可通过implicitPrefs =true|false(默认)来指定。\n内置ALS数据集包含的行格式：电影编号，用户编号，用户电影评分，uinxtime时间戳\n还有一个Java版本的实现文章\n显隐反馈的策略区别\n数据处理/看待的策略角度不同。\n\n\n当你提供的是显性反馈时，相当于直接对你的评级数据进行建模求权重；\n\n\n而隐式反馈时将数据集看作代表强度的数字化用户行为观察（如点击次数或某人观看项目的累积时间），这些数字与观察到的用户偏好的置信水平相关，而不是明确与评分评级有关。\n\n\n当implicitPrefs = true时，还有一个配套参数 alpha（默认值1.0，也就是不干预训练结果），用来与最终模型训练结果输出前相乘。很多地方描述称做控制偏好观察中的 基线置信度，提法直观阅读比较绕，特作前面的实际作用机制说明。\n补记：CTR中流行FM算法的特点\nFM（Factorization Machine）是由Konstanz大学Steffen Rendle于2010年最早提出的，旨在解决稀疏数据下的特征组合问题。经过One-Hot编码之后，大部分样本数据特征是比较稀疏的，特征空间还变得更大。某些特征经过关联之后，与Label之间的相关性就会提高，那么引入特征组合就非常具有意义了。\n在FM模型之前，CTR预估最常用的模型是SVM和LR（包括用GBDT给它们提取非线性特征），SVM和LR都是线性模型（SVM理论上可以引入核函数从而引入非线性，但由于非常高维的稀疏特征向量使得它很容易过拟合，故实际运用起来不太顺手），在特征关联领域，怎么建模二阶，三阶甚至更高阶非线性的关系就是预估更加准确的关键点。\n\n因为其实际上确有相关性\n\n如吃饭时间食谱类App下载量比平时大: App类别和时间的二阶关系\n年轻男性更喜欢设计类游戏: 年龄，性别，游戏类别的三阶关系\n\n\nFM通过给每个特征引入一个低维稠密的隐向量来减少二阶特征交互的参数个数，同时实现信息共享，使得在非常稀疏的特征向量上的学习更加容易泛化。理论上FM可以建模二阶以上的特征交互，但是由于计算量急剧增加，实际一般只用二阶的模型。\n\n直观上看，FM的复杂度是 $O(kn^2)$。但是，FM的二次项可以化简，其复杂度可以优化到 O(kn)。由此可见，FM可以在线性时间对新样本作出预测\n\nFM可以模拟二阶多项式核的SVM模型，MF模型，SVD++模型等，相比SVM的二阶多项式核而言，FM在样本稀疏的情况下是有优势的。FM的训练/预测 复杂度是线性的，而二阶多项式核SVM需要计算核矩阵，核矩阵复杂度就是$\\mathcal{O}(n^2)$。\n参考补充\n1.CSDN 推荐算法（一）——音乐歌单智能推荐 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI","算法"]},{"title":"卓有成效的管理者","url":"/%E5%8D%93%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%95%88%E7%9A%84%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%80%85.html","content":"\n\n借用别人一张图做封面，作者的笔记脑图做得很细很好\n\n此书很久之前就读过，很有启发性，尤其是组织绩效在组织之外，要事为先已记得很熟悉。最近恰逢机会重读，依然觉得所言非虚，总结的不错，真所谓常读常新（如以前不太注意的：找到自己做得特别好的事，你最擅长做的事，理顺自己的生活与事业。只针对妨碍长处发挥的短处进行改进），的确是一本经典书籍，索性提炼一些作为读书笔记。\n\n管理的书籍一般都是讲如何管理别人，本书讲的却是如何让管理者管理自己，使管理者本身变得卓有成效。\n\n术语前提\n管理者\n\n尽力铺在少数几个影响最重大优先任务的人，都是管理者\n不生产“实物”的知识工作者其实都是管理者，他们作为专才，必须让自己生产的片段发挥成效（搞清楚谁会使用自己的产出）。\n\n另外，掌握知识的人始终应承担起让人理解的责任，要关心知识的可用性。\n\n\n\n组织\n\n\n组织是社会的器官，功能是对外部环境做出贡献。现代文明建立在大型组织基础上，需要大量合适的人员，上帝造人并不是为了给组织提供资源，其规格未必正好适合他们要完成的任务，大致匹配就已是最好的情况\n\n\n组织作为一种工具，克服每个人在“寿命和贡献”上的限度，同时也是使个人才干得以增值的工具。个人的知识被组织吸收，可以成为其他知识工作者做好事情的动力和资源。\n\n\n\n组织伴生的结构性问题\n\n一个浪费时间的因素，是组织结构缺陷，表现就是会议太多。会议本质是对组织结构有缺陷做所做的补救（无缺陷：人人知晓自自己完成工作需要知晓的事，和获得开展工作所需的资源），之所以开会，因为处理某个情境所需的知识和经验需要把多个人拼成整体。\n另一个组织时间浪费常因人员过剩而起，普遍的情况是人太多导致有效性差，因为越多的时间用于“交流”而不是工作。\n\n人才\n\n全才从来就是奇缺的，人类历史清晰表明，供应充足的只有各方面能力平平的人，所以组织里能用的顶多是在某一方面表现出色的人。但组织里的人有能力成为多少有点有效性的管理者（如果有效性是一种像音乐和绘画一样的天赋，现代文明就会变得非常脆弱，不堪一击）。\n现在每个学科领域都很庞大，大到人们终其一生都研究不完，各方还都很容易狭窄自得（可能同是物理学家，却彼此难弄懂对方关心的是什么问题）\n且在人类的各个领域，领导者与普通人间的差距常固定不变。\n\n总纲\n全书有一个完整的逻辑\n\n组织的命运系于成果\n组织成果源于外部机会，源于组织的有效决策，源于人的长处的发现与发挥，源于组织对人”自我发展“的激励。最终这一切源于管理者”自我管理“的有效性\n管理者的有效性作为一种习惯是可以学会的\n\n掌握自己的时间，进而管理自己。因为最稀缺的是时间，管理者的时间通常只属于别人，必须要事优先（集中少数重要的领域）。\n善用上下左右的长处，善于抓住形势，且不做自己不擅长的事。\n决策的正确与否是卓有成效的关键…将理念诉诸于实践\n\n\n\n管理者有效性的发展，是对组织的目标和方向的挑战，有了这种挑战精神，就能转移视线：由专注于问题转而重视机会，由见人之短转而用人所长。组织到了这一境界，会对外界的优秀人才产生吸引力，内部既有的人也将获得更大的激励，做出更大贡献。\n有效管理者间的风格差别之大和无效管理者间差别之大别无二致，但共同点是他们有一些做法能让手上的资源和自身能力变得有效。有效是一种习惯，也就是惯常做法，学会就是练习，练习，再练习。\n成为大师可能需要特别的天赋，但如果只要做到有效，需要的只是熟练，也就是掌握音阶而已。（哪怕是伟大的钢琴家，如果不练习音阶，而且是反复练习，也弹不好莫扎特的曲子），这些音阶也就是提高时间的有效性，立足外部成果，要事为先；善用长处，有效决策。\n善用有限的时间\n清楚自己时间花在哪里，系统地管理为数不多的自主可控的时间。\n时间的特殊特性\n\n\n时间是一种独特的资源，供给弹性为0，且是稀缺资源，容易流失。\n\n相较而言，资金都不算是稀缺资源，在重视管理的场景，时间的特殊性才是真正意义上的稀缺资源。\n现实世界资金供给通常是过剩的，供给并不是制约经济增长和活动的因素，资金的需求才是。\n\n\n\n要想取得有效性，特别是知识工作者和管理者，必须有大块时间可供利用，支离破碎的时间不足以成事。\n\n\n创新和变革对时间的过度需求\n现在各个国家的管理者工作时间都是比过去更长，出现此情况的重要原因是：\n\n只有不断创新和变革的经济才可能为人们提供高水准的生活\n创新和变革对管理者的时间要求非常高。如果时间短促，一个人就只能考虑他已经熟悉的事，只能做他曾经做过的事\n\n有效性的迫切性\n工作的失效/失败，往往因为没足够时间去思考如何做正确的事或把事做正确：管理者的时间往往被掠夺，限于日常事务和内部复杂的关系中，疲于奔命，被现实压力牵着鼻子走，以致忽略了产生成果的方向/外部联系。进一步讲，随着企业规模扩大，内部专业化分工深化，更看不到外部的机会和协同的必要。\n有效性最高的人，和其他人拥有的时间其它一样多，差别在于他们的时间利用的更好。善用时间的管理者，须排除干扰，最终学会：安排时间，学会如何拒绝，周旋和规避，如何应对来自他人的压力，集中时间和精力于一件值得做的事。不要把时间弄碎了，零星时间等于没有时间。\n授权时把可由别人做的事情交付给别人，这样才能做真正由自己做的事，此为有效性改进的一大法门。大胆减少无谓的工作，绝对无损于有效性\n对中老年的建议\n中年人或老年人最好还是早睡早起。早起比开夜车要好，晚上回家加班的情况虽然非常普遍，但恰恰是时间管理最差的一种情形，逃避了管理白天的工作时间。\n在贡献上下功夫\n一切成果都存在于组织之外，做出外部贡献，才能算有所成就：管理者的贡献被利用，不是在组织内，而是在横向组织外（旁系人士）或上级领导能利用其贡献。要主动接触这些人。\n重视贡献是一种意识，决定了管理工作的有效性。脑子里要装的是成果而不是工作本身，不能只顾着往下看（关注对外的贡献，而不是只为完成工作：哪些成果是我们理当提供的，而不是想工作需要用哪些方法和工具），对整个组织的绩效承担责任才是名副其实的“高管”。所有组织都需在三个重要方面取得绩效：\n\n取得直接成果\n确立并不断强化价值\n培育和开发将来需要的人才\n\n组织在其中任何一个方面缺少绩效，都会走向衰落，最后灭亡。\n如果领导者绩效突出，普通人也会随之提高涨。提高一个领导者的绩效，比提高一群人的绩效容易。\n创造成果的友情提醒\n添加新人，多数情况下应增添在已有成规可循的工作上。新工作应责成能证明有能力的人来负责。一项新工作，本身就是一场赌博，倘若另聘新人来做，更是赌上加赌。\n善用长处\n通才（精而后博的人与所谓的通才不同）和天才一样，可遇不可求。不能拔高能力的标准和期望万能的天才，不是期望人的能力突然提高。世上没有“能人”这回事，“能在哪里”才是关键所在。\n对我们的要求和启发是：以长处立身处世，利用同事，下属，上司的长处及情境中的有利因素，即在当下形势下能去做的事\n明白自己和别人的长处，关键不是将不胜任变成优秀。只能通过改进工作的手段充分发挥人的能力\n\n只想避免短处，那所领导的组织最终必是平庸的，才情越高的人，缺点往往越多\n\n学会善用专精某一领域的人，我们既不能增加资源的供应量，就应设法增加资源的产出量，也就是必须提高有效性。 这里的有效性，是使能力和知识资源能产生更多更好成果的一种手段。对于能力和知识这些资源，我们不能增加它的供给，提高有效性即是提高它的产出质量的唯一方法。\n向上管理\n下级通常想要”改造“上级，试图让上级克服其短处。有效的下级不会那样做，且明白，上级也是人，有他取得有效性的方式。想要了解上级长处并使其富有成效，需做出改变的通常是“方式”而不是“内容”。且经验表明，下级自己设置的目标几乎从来不同于上级对他们的期望。\n设法发挥上司的长处，从正确事情着手，以上司能接受的方式向其提出建议；帮助上司晋升多数情况是下属成功的捷径，你要知道哪怕逼走上级通常也是空降替代。\n要事为先\nFirst thing first, do one thing at a time\n要事优先的重要原则是：\n\n\n注重未来而不是现实/过去，注重机会而不是现实压力。\n\n\n对于外部情况，真正重要的不是趋势，而是趋势的转变。趋势的转变才是决定一个机构及其努力的成败关键\n\n可量化的东西基本是组织内部的\n外部事件通常是难量化的，本质是重要且相关的外部事件通常是定性的，还没有成为事实，无法加以量化（所谓事实就是有人定义和分类的事情，特别是赋予相关性），量化必须先有概念，从无数现象中抽象出某个具体的方面进行命名，计量。\n趋势的变化只能去感知，无法加以计数定义分类。强加分类虽然能取得数字，但研判与真实行为并不相符。\n\n\n\n这就引出的重要的结论：专注于机会，而不是问题。\n问题vs机会的视角\n当然问题必须被解决，不能藏着掖着。解决问题并不能创造出成果，充其量是防止损失。只有利用好机会，才能创造成果。需要将变化视作机会而非威胁，将变化用作发展的机会。\n除非是真正的大灾难，否则管理层会议第一页应首先讨论机会而不是问题。\n有效管理者在启动一项新活动之前，会砍掉一项旧活动，这对于组织的“体重控制“很有必要。社会组织和生物体一样，有必要保持精干和强健。\n要事原则升华\n\n起决定作用的因素是勇气而不是分析，调集各方的努力去做对未来贡献最大的一件事。独特的贡献，说白了就是一个没有你的领导就不会有的重大决策。\n\n\n选择自己的方向，而不是随波逐流\n目标高远，做可以带来不同的事，而不是“安全”，容易的事//科学家的事迹表明成就取决于追逐机会的勇气，而不是科研能力\n\n在一家垄断企业内部，也可通过组织安排，让未来业务与当前业务产生竞争，就像贝尔实验室就是首个以淘汰现有产品和技术为目标的实验室\n\n\n\n有效决策的要素\n\n\n了解问题的性质，若是经常性的/共性问题，只有通过建立规则或原则的决策，才能解决。\n\n从混乱中发现模式，站高点，做出少数具有共性，可用于大量具体情境的决策。简而言之，就是从混乱中提炼概念。\n\n\n\n找出解决问题时必须满足的界线（边界条件），这是最难的一步。而最危险的决策是假设一切都不出差错才可能奏效的决策（没有任何边界条件）\n\n\n先想清楚什么是正确，解决方案是什么，再去思考需做出那些妥协，调整和让步，才能让决策被接受\n\n\n需兼顾到相关的执行措施，让决策变成可以被贯彻的行动。把决策转化为有效行动通常是最耗时的一步，除非一开始就把行动安排融合到决策中，否则决策就不会有效，只是良好的愿望。\n\n行动计划违反约束，通常无效，要意识到灵活性。检查点安排在计划的中间点和终点是必不可少的。拿破仑说过，没有哪场胜仗是按计划取得的，但他还是会比任何将军都精心部署每一次战斗。没有行动计划，管理者就会成为事件的囚徒。\n\n\n\n执行中重视反馈，建立“反馈机制”，用事情的实际发展情况检验决策的正确性，有效期和有效性\n\n\n计算机不能替代感知\n计算机是一种逻辑运算机器，运算能力强，但外部发生的重要事件无法用计算机等逻辑运算系统可以识别的格式录入去处理。\n感知能力是人类的优势所在。危险在于，管理者轻视那些不能简化成计算机逻辑的语言的信息和刺激，对感知（事件本身）无动于衷，等成为事实后才注意到。如此这般，海量计算机信息反倒会阻断管理者通往真实世界的路。\n所以需要管理者努力感知外部世界，否则就会被内部情况遮蔽双眼，看不到真正的现实。\n勉励\n有效管理者通过专注于贡献突破自己，这就要求管理者“超越自己的专业领域，有限的技能，自己的团队，把注意力投向整个组织的绩效”。就如下面三个石匠的故事：\n\n我在挣钱糊口\n我在干最漂亮的石匠活\n我在建造大教堂。\n\n最后一个石匠才是有望取得有效性的人，他专注的是外部，是贡献。\n补充\n几个方向管理的本质\n\n向上管理：获取授权\n横向管理：共识\n向下管理：辅导，激励\n\n如何进行工作汇报\n谁来听：对象风格很重要\nD掌控驾驭型：老虎\n\n变现风格：目标明确，反应迅速\n如董明珠，任正非，王健林，李嘉诚。不表扬不讲感情，要结果，干得好是应该的；生而为工作，不服就干。做决定快，理性。\n\n单刀直入，教人如何达到目标、有说服力，效率高\n\n决策要点\n\n\n直接，简短，重点式的答复\n强调利益，关注业务及成果\n提供挑战，自由及机会\n问”什么？“，而非”如何？“\n\nI魅力表现型：孔雀\n\n表现风格：热爱交际，幽默风趣\n如：马云，后来的雷军，口若悬河聊未来。做决定快，感性。\n\n愿意花点时间了解，喜欢漂亮舒服的东西，有眼光，有乐趣，活力十足\n\n决策要点\n\n\n关注团体而非个人，重视整体而非细节\n提供社交的活动，提供发表意见的机会，提供支持\n\nC思想家分析型：猫头鹰\n\n表现风格：讲究条理，追求卓越\n如马化腾，张一鸣。流程标准逻辑体系。做决定慢，理性。\n\n单刀直入，谨慎且有条不紊，精确完整，有耐性\n\n决策要点\n\n\n\n事先准备，分析利弊得失\n\n\n关注任务，对事不对人\n\n\n系统的方式，一致性的\n\n\nS追随者亲和型：考拉\n\n表现风格：喜好和平，迁就他人\n如丁磊，这种是一把手最少见的，更适合当最好的二把手。韧性强，能忍受另外三类人。做决定慢，感性。\n\n愿意花点时间了解，希望一起参与，温暖诚挚\n\n决策要点\n\n诚恳，澄清事实，耐心引导出目标，保留弹性，关注人机关系\n讲什么：内容\n思考的出发点：站在领导的角度思考\n怎么准备材料\n\n明确任务目的\n思考任务价值\n分析决策风格\n思考呈现逻辑\n怎样开展工作\n\n要结果\n进行决策\n\n好的反馈 : 同意，去做吧；我选方案X；还行，先试试吧；方向是对的，细节还要再看看\n差的反馈：这事你不要做了，逻辑混乱，回去重做\n\n通报进展\n\n好的反馈：知道了\n不好的反馈：这个不行\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"博弈知识 and 预测收敛法","url":"/%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%20and%20%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B%E6%94%B6%E6%95%9B%E6%B3%95.html","content":"\n人脑云计算：没大数据时如何预测\n土法炼钢-德菲尔法\n\n把专家的独立观点不断收敛\n\n\n从各领域邀请20位权威专家，预测最高，最低，最可能三个值\n独立预测，不要召专家在一起开会讨论，避免相互影响\n统计回归：归纳整理后，匿名反馈给各位专家，然后请专家参考修正自己的预测。如此往复几次，一般到第四次预测时，大部分专家已不再修改自己的意见，彼此的预测也越来越接近（收敛）\n分析结果，用“主观概率加权平均法”，最低25%权重，最高25%权重，最可能50%权重，加权求和，得到你想要的预测值。\n\n在20世纪中期，此套方法就在发生功效，准确预测朝鲜战争的结果。此套方法可充分利用专家的专业判断，在一些很难定量分析预测的问题上，实现“人脑云计算”，获得相对准确的预测结果。使用的注意事项是专家可以多样化，专家不一定是咨询公司，也是可以是一线管理人员，可以是客户，但他们必须独立给出预测。\n拍卖博弈\n\n拍卖博弈的和核心逻辑，就是在不完全信息博弈中，尽量引发博弈者们自相残杀，获得最高收益。\n英国式拍卖\n从底价开始，价高者得的拍卖模式。最为常见，拍卖行的古董拍卖，慈善晚宴善品拍卖，都是英国式拍卖。如果担心成交价过低，可设定一个保留价，没超过保留价，交易作废。\n荷兰式拍卖\n因荷兰人用这种方法拍卖郁金香而得名。郁金香的价值随着时间流逝不断递减，卖家逐步降价，达到买家心理价位而成交。\n现实中荷兰拍并不多见，但经常做采购招标架构的人，可以试试荷兰式拍卖和日本式拍卖的综合体。\n日本式拍卖指的是，只有上一轮出价者，才能参与下一轮出价。\n密封式拍卖\n密封的荷兰式拍卖，最低价中标，又叫暗标\n密封的英国式拍卖，最高价中标，又叫暗拍，如车牌竞拍。\n不知道别人的出价，最好直接叫出接近自己心理价位的报价，以提高成交机会。\n维克瑞拍卖\n又称第二价格密封式拍卖，出价最高者竞拍成功，但只用支付第二高的报价，而不是他自己的报价。因为密封式会让拍卖者保守地写出略低于自己心理价位的最高价。\n\n竞价排名广告，就是维克瑞拍卖。\n\n拍卖美元：竞合与赢家通吃\n\n价高者得，出价次高者，也要支付他的报价\n\n是一个著名的博弈陷阱，机制设计，就是让第一名赢家通吃，第二名颗粒无收，必然导致前两名非理性竞价，最后玩家双输，庄家获益。\n如何跳出此博弈陷阱？\n\n不要参与。一旦参与，就有被套牢的可能性\n出价不到50美分时，玩家结成同盟，分享收益\n若同盟很难达成，第一个人直接出价1美元，不赚不赔，让其它玩家直接失去出价的意义\n两家纠缠时，例如0.95和1美元，直接报价2美元，用损失1美元的代价终止游戏，避免纠缠升级到失控\n\n资本的互搏补贴大战，最后赢家通吃。它们不断公布自己已获得巨额融资，就相当于拍卖美元游戏中从0.95美元直接报到2美元，希望吓退对手。但谁也不让步，最后两家出价都要突破临界点时，坐下来谈判，停止出价，合并分享市场。\n打破零和博弈\n零和博弈存在吗？存在，只在封闭系统内部。如何避免？\n\n打开封闭系统，吃碗里，看锅里，想田里，寻求增量。有了外来的太阳能，地球上所有生物才不是零和博弈\n确定存量分配规则，不容博弈。交通规则，逃生顺序等都是打破零和的策略。开公司，先分钱，再赚钱，也是同样道理，分钱逻辑确定后，不容博弈，大家才会去想怎么创造增量。\n\n博弈策略优选：一报还一报\n囚徒困境，明明合作对双方有利，但囚徒往往因为自私和不信任而选择背叛，两败俱伤\n在没有被欺骗之前永远不要主动欺骗他人，如果对手选择背叛，立刻反击；如果对手补偿，不计前嫌继续合作。这样的清晰规则会激发对手的合作动机。\n将应对囚徒困境的博弈策略写成电脑程序，捉对厮杀，这个一报还一报策略在十几万次重复博弈中获得了冠军，多次合作后突然背叛的狡猾策略，总是选择合作的老好人策略都干不过它，屹立20年至今无敌。其基本逻辑是\n\n第一回合采取合作策略，然后每一回合都采取上一回合对手的策略\n\n这也是所谓的：人不犯我，我不犯人，人若犯我，我必犯人。\n启发\n这实验给了很多人启发，让大家重新相信：一报还一报，好人终有好报。\n我们看看以德报怨的论语记载\n\n以德报怨，何如？\n子曰: 何以报德？以直报怨，以德报德\n\n翻译成白话是：有人问以善行报恶行，怎么样，孔子说：那用什么回报善行？用适当的惩罚回报恶行，用善行回报善行。\n这跟博弈论策略是一致的。本性善良（严格兑现合作承诺）- 以直报怨-以德报德-规则清晰（毫不犹豫坚决执行）\n麦穗理论：放弃最优决策追求满意决策\n最优决策只在理论上存在，要追求“满意决策”，用37%的时间找到最基本的满意标准，用剩下的时间选择第一个好于这个标准的。\n\n将麦田分三段，走过第一段麦田时，只观察不下手，在心中将麦穗分为大中小三类。\n第二段时还是不下手，验证第一段的标准\n第三段，摘下遇到的第一支属于大类中的麦穗，不再寻找最优方案。可能不是最大的一支，但可心满意足地走完全程\n\n放到寻找人生伴侣的算法中，如果相信这套理论，只有20年时间给你做选择（20-40，过了就成黄花菜了），那么可以用20年中的37%，也就是7.4年交往不同的男士，到27岁时，确定最基本的满意标准，然后嫁给往后第一个好于这个标准的男士，并不再寻找更优方案。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["方法论"]},{"title":"卫将军骠骑列传说开去","url":"/%E5%8D%AB%E5%B0%86%E5%86%9B%E9%AA%A0%E9%AA%91%E5%88%97%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4%E5%BC%80%E5%8E%BB.html","content":"\n不可胜在我，可胜在敌\n2020读过 华杉讲透《孙子兵法》，综合多家批注，觉得讲的很好。且兵法作为传统文化，金句很多，作为华人诵记再合适不过。写本文也是因为感触 “不可胜在我，可胜在敌”的审慎战争观，联系牵引出霍去病的故事，点线面的再多说一些而成。\n\n在华衫这本书中，对于正奇，关于虚实，关于战略，有足够精辟的解释，推荐有兴趣的都可以去读读\n\n在孙子的战争观中，很多历史上无赫赫杀伐记录的将军，没准够格可称为好将军\n\n曹操语：善战者，无赫赫之功\n孙子语：故善战者之胜也，无智名，无勇功。先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜，正所谓不可胜在我，可胜在敌。\n\n武帝要向冠军侯讲授孙、吴兵法，被其回应：打仗看方针策略就够了，不用尽学古兵法。果真天才不需理由，主角光环加身？遂搜史记证实，发现司马迁对卫青和冠军侯笔法态度还不同，有意思嘿，毕竟司马迁写书那会冠军侯也才过世十几年。\n兵书可是垄断资源\n\n唐之前，兵神首推姜太公，国家祭祀中多以姜太公为主位，关羽只是陪祀众多武将中的一个而已，关公被封为武圣那是南宋以后的事情了。为何之前如此推崇姜太公，因其属于理论水平和赫赫功业双举。太公写的兵书《六韬》是我国最早的军事著作，比《孙子兵法》还早了几个世纪。古代军事教科书有很强的指导意义，打仗不读书是不行的。\n夏商周以来军事就是学在世家，春秋以来世袭贵族掌握的军事知识并世代相传不为外人道，以此维持对于军事的垄断地位。\n在秦以前，没受过正规军事教育没有赢得可能，那是稳定技术水平下的常规对抗，野路子注定打不过正规军。那个时代大家的兵种、军事制度、技术手段全都一样，在这样的军事对抗中，谁会的套路多，谁对技术的理解深入，谁就更有希望赢。世代为将的，几代人的经验给你用，当然神勇。就像刘邦率兵很难打过项羽，项羽败在自己的政治上。\n略不变，术常变\n兵书浩如烟海，为啥只有《孙子兵法》最流行？他多讲战略，少讲战术。战略多久都不过时，但战略需要战术来落地。有孙子兵法，鸦片战争还是打不过英军，燧发枪密集队型战术，这个战术人家玩了两百多年总结出来的专门打你的人海冲锋。\n历史上的战争长期碾压，无外乎两点：\n\n工具：技术/装备碾压 【核心要素|绝对优势，装备含 领先进攻装备+高质量单兵装备】\n战术：结合训练组织有素\n\n冠军侯鄙视兵书\n汉武帝刘彻要教导霍去病兵法时，霍去病所回的话影响**“顾方略何如耳，不至学古兵法”**，这句话的意思是要临机应变，不必拘泥，无须学习古代的兵法。\n\n挺狂妄的，为啥他还能成呢？\n\n中原以往的战车步兵方阵在和匈奴的战争中，追不上也跑不了，威力强大的战车在匈奴骑兵面前机动性全无，成了被射杀的活靶子。即使你家有两百年指挥战车作战的经验，这个时候你也用不上，因为对手变了。\n我们学他们行不行？也搞骑射结果发现根本射不过人家，匈奴人孩童时代就骑羊射鼠，大了就骑马射人，汉家将士后期在如何训练也比不上这样的对手。你再咋搞那些布阵，地形，计策你也赢不了。\n汉匈战术变革\n卫青，霍去病因为处在一个变革的关键时期，依靠出众的才华把中原王朝的冲锋战术和骑兵相结合，发明了骑兵冲锋战术，不在和敌人对射，而是用我们擅长的高度纪律性和组织性发起骑兵冲锋和匈奴人肉搏作战，用自己的长处打击敌人的短处。在肉博中汉军占尽优势，在武器上，汉代环手刀锋利异常可以长达100CM，装备的铁甲匈奴人的青铜短刀也难以一刺而破。从骑射到冲锋的改变，彻底改变了战争局面，用兵不拘古法。\n欧洲重骑兵又被蒙古打\n欧洲为啥重装骑兵多，他的地形没那么开阔，常有树林，沼泽，不利于骑射骑兵游走，重骑冲杀迅猛到前，有优势，才存在。\n为啥对付蒙古人不好使？蒙古人两副弓，还有先进的火器，先来火器干一波，再来硬弓射杀一波，临近了再用射速快的弩，工具&amp;战术上落后了，所以打不过。\n在合乎现实的情况下组合自有资源，好过每天惦记要发明新东西和出奇制胜，世界上没有出奇制胜，有的是用绝对优势击败对手。\n列传二杰的态度\n《史记-卫将军骠骑列传》写卫青之功，多陈述事实，“摹写唯恐不尽”， 而写霍去病之功则多用皇帝诏辞点出，这正是对诏辞所列骠骑三出，竟斩捕十一万余敌人之事的存疑之笔（诏辞以幕府报功表为据），真是“句中有筋，字中有眼”，褒贬之意于叙事之中。暗讽霍去病之功是武帝为了提拔他而夸大的。\n汉代皇帝好男宠，汉武也不例外，太史公还品冠军侯不体恤士兵（赏赐酒肉臭，自顾自踢球，士兵饥渴寒—也有人洗白年级轻轻，制造距离立军威），你品你细品。\n\n爱屋及乌，霍去病的儿子霍嬗5岁就领二千石的官（奉车都尉），武帝首次泰山封禅是陪着他上山的唯一一人（此时10岁或11岁），何等的待遇，皇太子都靠边站，唯二人携手与天交流（也有说冠军侯已逝，带他儿子展示一下对匈奴的威慑）。\n可惜唯一目睹泰山封禅的后浪霍嬗，也在泰山封禅后不久宣布疾病去世，看来超规格了无福消受。\n霍嬗的出生年份未见确切史籍，但走的时候无子嗣，肯定年纪不大，应该真的是10~11岁左右\n\n史记可以随意抹黑老板？\n武帝活着的时候，根本不知道《史记》的存在。司马迁写完史记后，这本书一直在他的家里，被私人收藏了几十年。直到后来，司马迁的女婿成为汉朝丞相后，这套书才被司马迁的外孙翻了出来得以传世。如果没有这个好女婿（杨敞，原在霍光麾下做官），可能后世永远不会知道。\n司马迁的父亲司马谈，在读书的时候就发现，从来没有一本书完整的记录了以往全部的历史，且基本是编年史，记录也简短。司马谈就有了一个想法，写一本写全本历史的书。遂借着自己太史令的身份四处搜集各种历史文献资料，不过这个梦想到他去世也没完成，毕竟这个工作量太大了。司马迁接班干，立志要完成父亲的梦想。此后十多年时间里，按照父亲搜集的资料正式开始写。在这期间，司马迁因为给李陵求情，触怒武帝遭受宫刑。但他还是完成了这部旷世巨著。\n具体成书日期不可考，只知道写完时武帝还在位。里面对武帝有不少不利的内容，例如对耗尽国力打匈奴持反对意见，且迷信鬼神，好大喜功。从司马迁的视角看，他只是出于一个史官的职责，秉笔直书。如果武帝知道这样内容的存在，能允许此书传世吗？司马迁自己也不敢赌，因为这是两代人一生的心血。所以他写完后并未有对外宣传，在临终前，把史记的书稿传给了自己的女儿。\n司马迁的女婿参与拥立了汉宣帝，到宣帝坐稳皇位以后，此时汉朝官方已经能接受对武帝的一些批评了。此时杨家地位也很高，所以拿出公开在世人面前。随着史记流传，汉朝官方认识到私人写史书的影响力，后来对于私人写史书持反对态度，东汉时期班彪开始续写史记，班固接力写的时候就被邻居举报了，给抓起来了。私修国史是有罪的，好在弟弟班超为了救哥哥，向汉明帝求情，汉明帝算是个明君，把班固写成的内容看一遍，发现写的确实不错，也没夹带私货，就赦免了他。\n不管是《史记》或是《汉书》，传下来都不容易。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"历史的教训","url":"/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD.html","content":"\n地理决定论\n\n地理好比孕育历史的子宫，哺育着历史，规范着历史\n\n在每个地方，北欧人都是冒险者，勇敢的战士和纪律严明的人。他们使性情多变无常，懒惰的地中海南部民族成了他们的臣民或奴隶。在欧洲，南方人创造文明，北方人就征服它，毁灭它，借鉴它，传播它：这是对历史的一个简要概括。\n从长远来看，传统或种族类型的差异性，是由于环境的影响造成的。当安逸的南方民族跑到北方后，活动和思维的节奏也会加快。\n生物学的教训\n人生来不自由不平等\n生物学给历史的教训就是：\n\n生命就是竞争，战争就是一个国家的觅食方式\n人生来就是不自由不平等的，30%的人的能力综合可能跟剩余70%的能力和一致\n\n大自然对我们梦想中的自由与平等的结合付之一笑，因为自由是平等对立面。只有经济才能处于平均水平以下的人，才会渴求平等，只有那些才智高超的人，才会渴望自由。最终的结果总是自由胜出，才智高超的人得偿所愿。\n乌托邦式的平等已经被生物学判了死刑，立场温和的哲学家所能指望的最佳状态，是法律和教育机会的大致平等。\n天地不仁\n自然极其喜爱数量，因为量变是质变的先决条件，与个体相比，大自然更喜欢群体，她对文明和野蛮几乎不加区分，不介意高出生率通常会导致在文化上变的不那么文明，而低出生率通常又与文化高的文明相伴，低出生率的国家周期性地收到更加孔武有力和生育力强的群体的惩罚。\n若人类繁衍过快而使食物变得短缺，大自然有三个办法使其恢复平衡：饥荒、瘟疫和战争。\n\n经济道德史\n从有历史记录以来，人的演化一直是社会性而不是生物性的：其进化程度不是经由物种遗传变异，而主要是因为经济政治智力和伦理道德的革新，通过模仿，习俗和教育的力量，个别或一代代传递下去。\n我们把经济史分为三个阶段：狩猎期，农业期和工业期。我们会发现，一个阶段的道德规则将会在下一个阶段发生改变。\n道德规范跟经济模式走\n狩猎期\n如狩猎期，大量的不安全感，男人高死亡率，促成男性好斗，残暴，贪婪和好色，这是当时那个时代的优势，放在今天是罪恶\n农业期\n进入农业期，勤奋变得比勇猛更加重要，讲究规则和节俭比武力更有价值，和平比战斗更加有利。孩子是经济资产，节育是不道德的。\n工业期\n工业革命改变了欧洲人和美国人的经济形态和上层道德结构，男女和子女离开故乡和家庭，放弃权威社群，以个人身份去工厂打工，所得也归个人所有，工厂的房子并非为人而建，而是为了机器，机器也越来越复杂，使得经济自立延后（养家糊口的能力–原来农业的年龄线更靠前）。\n子女不再是经济资产，城市让人对婚姻望而却步，女人被解放了，避孕药使得她们能够将性和孕分离开来。\n个人主义在工业社会日益增长，使得父母的权威失去了经济基础。\n叛逆的年轻人不再受村民的监督和限制，他可以在素不相识的城市人群中隐藏自己的罪孽，旧的农业道德规范开始走向灭亡。\n罪恶的烈度从未不同\n历史提醒我们，罪恶在每一个时代都蓬勃发展，我们这个时代的道德沦丧，与英国复辟时代相比，只有种类上的差别，没有程度上的不同。\n每个时代男女都嗜好赌博；每一个时代，男人都不诚实，政府都很腐化。十六世纪的小册子文献中，充斥着对食品和货物大量掺假的谴责和抱怨，淫乱更不消说，人们从不甘心遵守十诫。\n经济史是财富心脏的缓慢跳动\n美国人在1776年前是相对平等的，现在已经被成千上万种生理上，精神上，和经济上的差异所击垮，贫富差距是历史最大。历史对此有不同的应对方式，或者通过立法，用和平的手段重新分配财富，或是通过革命，用暴力手段强行分配。所有的经济史都是这个社会有机体缓慢的心脏跳动，财富的集中和强制再分配，便是它巨大的收缩和扩张运动。\n治钱者治一切\n劳心者治人，劳力者治于人，但治钱者治一切。银行家爬到经济金字塔的最顶端，观察农业，工业及贸易趋势，引导资金的流动，使钱发挥2~3倍的效用，他们控制贷款，利润和企业，进行风险最大收益又最大的活动。\n银行家都形成了家族，他们稳稳坐在政府的议事厅中，为战争和教皇出钱，偶尔还会点燃革命的火花。可能这是他们权力的一个秘密：他们研究价格波动，知道历史总会通货膨胀，钱是聪明人应当藏入地窖的最后一样东西。\n回头看制度\n君主制最自然–中等成绩\n历史对所有的形式，以及政府这种普遍存在的东西，都会给予赞美。君主制似乎是最自然的政府体制，因为它的权威适用于群体，就像父亲在家族中或首领在战士们中享有的权威一样。相对而言，民主制一直是其中的插曲。\n君主制取得了中等的成绩，这个制度因为继承而引发的战争带给人类的灾难和它的连续性和正统性带来的好处一样多。\n兼论下君主制时代贵族的堕落\n贵族鼓励，支持且控制艺术，但是他们很少能创造艺术，贵族们蔑视艺术家，把艺术家视为匠人，他们喜欢生活中的艺术，而不是艺术化的生活，从未想过屈尊受尽千辛万苦，而这通常是天才必须付出的代价。他们也很少进行文学创作，因为他们认为为出版而写作是出风头和推销自己的表现。\n这种现象所导致的结果是，现代的贵族中产生了无所用心而又浅薄的享乐主义。\n资本主义的创造性\n资本主义履行了创造性的历史职能：如他们用许诺分红和支付利息的方式，集合人们的储蓄变为生产资本；他们对工业和农业的机械化进行投资，并合理分配利润，结果一大批商品如潮水般从生产者手中涌入到消费者手中。\n自由企业制度下，竞争的激励及所有权的热情和兴趣，激发了人们的生产力和创造力。\n共产主义:战时经济\n共产主义在俄国而非英国先出现，定是超过马克思的预想的。俄国革命的成功，因为沙皇政府在战争中的战败蒙羞，经济已崩溃混乱，农民携带武器从前线回到家乡。新政府内受混乱的挑战，外受他国的攻击，人们的反应是任何一个国家受到围攻情况下的自然反应–在秩序和安全恢复之前，可以舍弃一切个人的自由。这里的共产主义，也是战时经济。只消一代人的和平，它便很可能被人的本性所侵蚀。\n黑格尔哲学的断章应用\n马克思是黑格尔的不忠实弟子，他将黑格尔辩证法的意思解释成资本主义和社会主义间的斗争，将会以社会主义的完全获胜而结束。但是，如果黑格尔的正题，反题，合题公式应用于历史，工业革命是正题，资本主义对抗社会主义是反题，那么下一个状态就应是资本主义和社会主义的合题。\n这种协调现象，西方世界已经明显在进行。对资本主义的恐惧，迫使社会主义不断扩大自由，而对社会主义的恐惧，迫使资本主义不断增加平等，一对双胞胎很快就会团聚。\n真正的革命\n人们间天然的不平等，就算发生了财富再分配，很快会发生新的占有和特权的不平等。唯一真正的革命，是对心灵的启蒙和对个性的提升；唯一真正的解放，是个人的解放；唯一真正的革命者，是哲学家和圣人。\n文明的进步\n我们曾把文明界定为“促进文化创造的社会秩序”。政治秩序是依靠习俗，道德和法律而得到保障。经济秩序则是依靠连续的生产和交换而得到保障。文明是错综复杂又很不稳定的人际关系网络，建立起来很辛苦，摧毁则很容易。\n文明不能遗赠，它必须经由每一代人重新学习，如果传播的过程被打断一个世纪以上，文明就会死亡，我们又会重新变成野蛮人。当代最好的成就，就是付出了空前的财力和物力，为所有的人提供了更高的教育。\n\n如果生命的延长表明了对环境有更大的控制力，那么死亡率的降低就宣告了人类的进步\n\n民主是政府形式中最难的一种\n按照民主一词的严格定义，它只存在于现代，因为成人（包括女性）投票权也只开始于20世纪。在所有政府形式中民主是最困难的一种，因为它需要最大限度的普及聪明才智。\n宿命悲观但努力值得鼓励\n教育是普及了，但是才智却因为头脑简单的人众多而永远受到阻滞。林肯说过：“你不可能永远欺骗所有人”，但是你可以愚弄足够多的人，以便治理一个大国。\n民主有缺陷，但还是比其它形式的政治好，害处较少而优点较多。虽然不能做到生而平等，但教育和机会的获得会让他们越来越接近平等。\n复古是逃避\n我们身处城市生活的纷乱的压力之下，有时很想逃避回到文明前的淳朴生活方式。但是，这也只是偶尔的想入非非，我们知道这是对现实工作产生的一种逃避反应，将原始人偶像化，就像年轻人的其他许多心情一样，也是青春期一种不能适应环境的发泄表现，是自觉的能力尚未成熟，尚未派上用场的表现。\n宗教的正向力量\n人生来不平等，宗教是希望的安慰者，摧毁了希望，阶级斗争就会愈演愈烈，天堂和乌托邦此消彼长，当宗教衰退时，共产主义就会兴起。\n地球上的统治者都是受神的指派，受神保护，出于感激，几乎每个国家都会与祭司分享它的领土和税收。\n\n中国的天子，好像倒是有多次清理宗教的活动，估计宗教势力太大，影响到了国家的税收和宗法控制\n\n只要有贫穷，就会有神灵\n如果再有高烈度战争让科学名誉扫地，那么教会就会变成劫后余生的人们唯一的希望和指引。只要有贫穷，就会有神灵。\n天主教又压新教一头\n天主教禁止堕胎而导致的高生育率，使它的信徒逐步收回了因宗教改革失去的地盘，天主教失去了知识阶层的依附，且由于和世俗教育与文学的接触，信徒也日渐不守教规，但它得到了两种人的皈依：\n\n\n一种人对理性的不确定而感到苦恼\n\n\n另一种是希望借助教会之力，来压制内部的混乱，以及抵制共产主义的浪潮。\n\n\n它勾起了人们的幻想，希望和情感，安慰穷人的生活照亮了他们的希望。\n增补章节：农业革命的骗局\n常识认为人类历史上的几次革命，农业革命，工业革命，信息革命对人类发展和进步都做出了极大贡献。但《人类简史》的作者不这么看，从人性关怀的角度他指出农业革命是人类历史上最大的骗局。\n人类曾有250w年靠采集和狩猎为主，大约公元前9500到前8500年，人类开始向农业耕种转变。本以为有了农业生产，人类可以放弃狩猎采集的艰苦，危险，简陋，可以安定下来享受愉快和饱足的生活。其实这只是一个幻想。\n\n农业革命直接成效是人类的食物总量增加，但同时也带来了人口的急剧增长。并产生了一批可以养尊处优，不劳而获的阶层。\n为了养活更多的人，农民必须更辛苦的劳作，过上比采集时代更辛苦的生活。\n\n\n农业对寿命/健康的影响也可以参阅中年的意义。\n\n采集时代食物品种非常多，遇到荒年也不容易饿死，农业时代食物单一，只要遇到灾害，被饿死的贫民很多。农业社会也并未给人类带来人身安全，采集年代碰到冲突撤退搬家还能生存；农民遇到强敌，撤退放弃自己的土地，几乎注定会被饿死，势必更多与外来者拼个你死我活。\n以繁衍后代为导向的生活让农民的生活质量迅速下降，人类非但没越过越好，反而越来越糟。\n普遍进步被不均衡收割和欲望再次填平\n人类从古至今，种种想要自己生活变得轻松幸福的努力，总是未达到那么美好的结果，却给自己带来新的麻烦。\n今天依然如此，年轻人投身大企业发誓努力工作赚钱，好在35岁就可以不工作，去从事自己真正有兴趣的事业，而到了35岁，才发现自己背巨额贷款，要付子女学费，要供房车，该怎么办，放下一切吗？只能继续埋头工作，把自己累个半死。\n我们发明了那么多本该让生活轻松省时的发明，如洗衣机，吸尘器，手机，计算机，到头来，我们的生活并没有变得轻松。\n物种演化上的成功，并不代表个体的幸福。每当人类整体能力大幅增加，看来大获成功的时候，个人的苦痛也总是随之增加。以此类推，工业革命，信息革命乃至智能革命好像都是如此，值得人类反思，我们究竟要什么，什么才是人性。\n增补章节：人性本私\n利益越大的地方，人性越自私。自私大到一定程度，人性就变成了恶。古代帝王相争，连善的影子都看不到。你之所以痛苦，是因为你把身边的人都想成了好人，自然期望值就拉高了。\n人与人之间，没有背叛与忠诚，一切关系因利益的产生而开始，因利益的消散而结束。很少有纯粹的好人和坏人。你伤害了对方的利益，你在对方的眼中就是坏人。社会人与社会人相处的本质就是利益交换，你的价值就是你的一切。\n\n当你贫穷时，你遇到的都是嘲笑，算计，占你便宜的人；你有钱了，你遇到的都是友好善良的好人，重点是他们都是同一群人。社会就像猴子爬树，从上往下看，都是笑脸，从下往上看，都是屁股。当你实力足够强大时，才会感受到社会的美好和温柔。\n\n人性的本质是什么，既不是本善，也不是本恶，本质是本私的。随着你利益大小的变化而发生变化，无利益冲突时，人性是本善的，产生利益，人性开始变得自私，利益足够大，人性是恶的。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史","人性"]},{"title":"历史的棋局","url":"/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html","content":"\n学历史不是记时间，那叫记事本存储器，得有纵向跨时空的穿插和逻辑。\n先秦的棋谱\n人文家国，历久弥新。从周代的历史缩影都能窥见后代棋局的棋谱大意。\n周朝时间790年最长，占文明史$1 \\over 6$长，奠定了华夏的重要根基。相当于南宋(成吉思汗）到清四个朝代（784年）到今天的距离。\n军政层面\n从东周迁到洛阳开始，周王朝的发迹之地事实上转移到了秦国名下。前期春秋冶铁科技水平不高，各位权贵“亲戚”封地间有很多的缓冲地带，随着改造自然能力增强，大家的胃口和冲突都变大了。韩赵魏三家分晋后，历史迈入战国时代，诸侯纷争，攻伐掠夺，礼乐崩塌，社会通行的法则就是在武力基础上建立的社会语法：剑戟说话。\n经济层面\n魏国占的土地恰是尧舜禹建立都城的河东之地（都是围绕山西运城盐池而建都），拥有解池的盬($g\\check{u}$)盐而成为文明的发祥之地，黄帝蚩尤大战，也是为了争夺这个盐池。管子的治国理念，就是要实行君权对国家经济的垄断性经营，对国家的一切社会财富实行有组织，有计划的控制，只有实行了”利出一孔“，国家才会”无敌“。\n整个战国时期，各国王权已无余力调和国家和民生的羹汤，发展到最后，权贵阶层和财富阶层混为一体。在私营商业势力大为膨胀的背景下，由赵而秦，由商入朝的吕不韦，反映的正是那个时代商人们发达升迁的路线，为商官群像的一个历史缩影。可只有秦国真正实现了盐铁的专营。解池盐卤之地+巴蜀的盐尽收秦国之手，辅以盐铁专营，秦国的强大已无可阻挡。\n新大一统通常短命，后跟一个长命的王朝。简单解读是终结乱世，容易膨胀，听不进劝。秦如此，晋如此，隋亦如此。\n\n削藩也是手艺活\n汉高帝削藩\n刘邦最终击败项羽称帝前，所封的诸侯都是盟友而非属下。而项羽小气，不愿分封绥靖各方，被迫面对无休止的游击战。\n刘邦削藩的成功，关键是在获得压倒性优势之前完全隐藏自己的意图，隐藏到韩信，英布这种顶尖人物都心存侥幸。击败项羽后，马上开始了自己的削藩行动。\n\n\n关键第一步是把整个齐地纳入自己的管控中。借口让韩信衣锦还乡，把韩信从齐地改封到项羽的西楚故地，不露痕迹地取得齐地控制权，分封给自己的儿子。从此之后，叛乱者都要面对齐地和关中两个地方的强力夹击，中央政府获得了显著的地缘优势。\n\n\n第二步是控制韩信统治下的西楚国故地。韩信政治能力实在不敢恭维，不具一个有能力问鼎天下的气度，甚至作为一个诸侯王也不及格。先是打擦边球（可能感觉到刘邦对其不放心），私自收留项羽的高级将领，结果刘邦一较真却怂了。这种主动露怯，让刘邦占据了极大的主动。\n\n\n最后，刘邦用陈平之计诱捕韩信，把他的楚王废掉，将楚国领土封给了自己的两个亲戚。\n\n\n等刘邦把齐，楚，燕三个国家的辖区封给自己人后，刘邦对其它异性藩王的优势已经是决定性的了，剩下所有的异性诸侯加在一起，也不是刘邦的对手。用最小的代价逐渐用自己家族成员取代原来的异性王。\n后世典型的反面案例\n清康熙\n康熙高喊“削亦反，不削亦反”的口号（典型的冲动型人格，朝鲜使臣记载其青壮年时期性燥急多暴怒），逼反了本来态度游离的耿，尚二藩，创下一个历史记录：被以云南为基地的叛乱势力席卷了半个中国。虽然吴三桂的败局是注定的（他年龄大劣势，名声差，叛军三心二意）如果玄烨有刘邦的政治智慧，吴三桂掀不起那么快的风浪。不过他很快察觉到自己的失策，在三藩叛乱后手忙脚乱地宣称“暂缓撤耿，尚二藩”，后期成功分化了三位藩王。\n明建文\n比起建文帝的操作，他的小失误不算个事。在朱元璋都做好制度性安排，藩王主动叛乱成功可能性为0的情况下，朱允炆偏偏觉得自己比爷爷和刘邦更聪明，往死里逼毫无威胁的藩王们，成了两千年间唯一被藩王造反推翻的大一统王朝君主。\n靖难之役背后的深层矛盾\n建文，就是朱允炆建立文治的坚定决心，但他的新政，反而为政权崩塌埋下伏笔。区别于洪武时期的严猛治国，建文强调自己的宽和，对祖制进行了不同程度的改动，最明显的是从重武轻文到尊佑右文教的转型。如《大明律》明确规定文官不能封公侯，建文登基后，为进一步提高文官地位，特意将六部尚书升为正一品，任用文官作为决策核心。\n这种调整使那些认同祖制的人，特别是一些藩王及武臣难以接受。重文轻武的政治倾向下，必然招致上下军官群体的不满，其军队频频失利或许与此有关。\n在朱标死后到立朱允炆为皇太孙的半年时间内，可以想象朱棣为储君之位下过不小的力气，拉拢了一批王侯武将。虽然最后争位失败，但拉拢的人却为靖难之役胜利奠定了基础。本身开国第一功臣徐达的长女为燕王妃的姻缘安排，就增添了朱棣在武将集团中的声望，再加上他战功最为显赫，与众多武将结下深厚情谊，手下聚集一批能征善战的将领。通州，遵化，密云的指挥使率部投降也是力证。朝中武将也多有倾心，如大舅子徐达之子徐增寿时任左都督，多次通报北境京师虚数。反观建文集团主要力量是苏浙赣皖地区的文官，与朝中武将观念相对不合。\n朱棣即位次日便下令奚复旧制，洪武时期，武将尚未被文官压倒，但在建文时代，严重以来文官集团激进推行新政，抬高文官地位，必然引起武官群体不满，在争夺皇权的表面背后，是明前期政治演进过程中矛盾冲突的产物，是”尚武“到”尚文“两种治国理念的交锋。\n两汉时光\n西汉初年刘邦鉴于秦朝土崩瓦解的教训，使用郡国制是符合潮流的，但文景之治之后，刘家血缘关系疏远尾大不掉，武帝削藩的必要条件随之成熟。但西汉末年后，武帝矫枉过正的策略又显出了负面效应，豪族缺少刘姓制约，开始雨后春笋生长，导致王莽篡汉发生，王莽激进不成熟的改革导致豪族的翻脸进而支持刘秀。东汉开始，刘秀只是借豪族的手，减少了人口压力，缓解了资源分配的压力，但其没有武帝和刘邦的觉悟或不敢，没有从源头上清洗豪族，这直接导致刘氏无法全面掌握主动权，演变成外戚专权豪族平衡天下的局面，三国志上演也成了必然。\n武帝为何没像秦朝一样崩溃\n大家常说武帝继承殷实家底，可景帝平定七国之乱时，还要向商贾借钱。伴随几十年的休养生息，无为而治的另外一面就是不抑制土地兼并。到武帝时期，地方上土地兼并和豪强林立已非常严重了，再加上北方匈奴的胃口一天天变大（强敌环伺），总结来说是个危局。所以毛的评价：文景守成庸主，幸承乱后人口稀少，固有假象。刘彻乃真雄主，改制度获罪天下，晚年省己，犹不失明。\n对内，刘老板为了筹措天价的军费，不论是基层百姓，贩夫走卒，还是商贾豪强，皇亲贵族，都如同韭菜般被刘彻挥舞镰刀收割了一茬又一茬，成为巅峰对决的养料。盐铁专营先是剥夺了全体大富绅，豪强们的赚取暴利的生计，然后从全民手里收间接税。再通过算缗（m$\\acute{i}$n）告缗没收绝大多数有产人的田宅现金和奴隶，掌握铸币权无差别收割天下所有人。对外消灭对汉民族生存构成威胁的敌对势力，匈奴被打的漠南五王庭，前后斩首俘虏 30w，壮年人口断层，羌人被驱逐，南越被灭国，朝鲜被灭国，还有一众西域小国被灭。领土直接扩大一倍，获得大量可开垦的土地，尖锐的人地矛盾被极大缓解。\n虽然老百姓过得不好（为国家战争做准备，全阶层不仅老百姓都为生存慌不择路焦头烂额），但阶层流动性几乎是西汉年间最强的，在那个年代做到了唯才是举。之后到宋代大规模科举之前，都是世家门阀掌权的时代。内部那些听调不听宣的勋贵，大商人，地方豪强也被彻底碾碎，各地曾经的封国也已名存实亡。这个曾经磕磕绊绊的国家也被整成了一个整体。每个人都被武帝的厚赏麻痹神经，也都为自己的生态位焦虑的不能自拔。\n随着汉匈战争的结束，民力疲敝，但汉朝外部威胁被彻底剪灭，让汉成为了一个民族的名字，给了一个名族前所未有的尊严。最后下罪己诏将罪责揽于一身，休养民生。在这一基础上出现的昭宣中兴也就顺理成章了。给到我们的启示是：任何伟大事业的成就，都需要在理想主义和现实主义，集体荣耀和个体命运间找到那个鲜血淋漓的平衡点。\n西汉吊打东汉\n西汉周期性清洗顶层贵族，地方豪强，敢于对各种顶层动刀子，不断腾空无用只能食利的顶层位置，然后用军功激发中层士人的活力，所以大汉从生强到死，不断扩张，三国分裂了还能吊打周边的唯一一个铁血朝代。\n\n陵邑制淘汰清理豪强，白鹿酌金清理贵族，军功制筛选底层。\n东汉不敢明目张胆搞领导淘汰制了，所以没西汉能打，但军功制仍在，连三国都巨能打。\n\n三国时代文化形态斗争\n东汉的权柄拉扯战\n王莽和一群知识分子搞了一次开天辟地的政治实验，依照《周礼》来改造衰亡中的帝国，帝国不出意外地被这帮胆大心急，眼高手低的理论派搞垮了。\n重整山河的光武帝刘秀吃一堑长一智，不敢再相信书生，依靠南阳，颍川，河北豪强势力拥戴上位。为了羁縻笼络这些豪强，就和他们结成姻亲，刘秀不敢触动已根深蒂固的豪强势力，只好让他们以血统参股的方式，共享帝国的最高权力。\n但刘秀的妥协，从一开始就给东汉帝国埋了雷，皇位两传之后，姻亲舅爷便反客为主，靠挟持外甥而成为帝国的实际主人。外甥皇帝当然也不服气，又依靠身边的宦官发动反击，从舅爷手中夺回权力。\n公公们的下层寒门盟友 [商人和庶族地主]，奸商老财的子弟，走读书出路参与国家政治，仍然是不容易的，因为要是读书的料，早投到书生主流阵营中去。所以，公公索性忽悠皇帝为自己的盟友打开另一扇方便之门—卖官鬻爵。让那些有经济实力和社会影响力却不具备做官资格的人，通过这种特殊方式参与到国家政治中来。这个市场在洛阳宫苑的西园，后世称为“西园卖官”。\n东汉中后期的历史，就是一场外戚和宦官轮番把持帝国权柄的乱战。乱战中，书生们只能跑跑龙套。他们中的佼佼者，朋比牵引，逐渐上升为学阀世家，世代相继把持着对经书文义的阐释权。这就和中世纪欧洲僧侣扮演的角色差不多了。大家玩的是同一套把戏，通过加强意识形态工作，让被统治者变得更加驯服，从而降低统治成本。\n经学和文学从学阀统治下分离\n在外戚当权的时代里，舅爷总会装出一副礼贤下士的样子，邀请有社会影响力的学阀出来做官。书生虽会做出各种姿态，到底扛不住千钟粟和颜如玉的真香定理。“罢了，为了天下苍生，老夫就入世走一遭吧”，或者“经费不够学生们吃了，老夫还是去找大将军申领点皇粮吧”。正统的书生和公公，显然不可能做好朋友。\n公公们和下层寒门盟友同盟成为既有秩序的破坏者，既要从舅爷手里抢皇帝，又要从学阀手里抢编制[或者叫经费]，还要跟世家大族争做土豪。在意识形态领域，公公们虽出身寒微，但脑子并不傻，成立一个“鸿都门学”的大学堂，与正统派大本营三万太学生抗衡。和太学里那些捣鼓经学，钻研政治和党争的正统派不同，鸿都门学学术专业要平和得多，他们研究诗歌，辞赋，绘画书法这些修身养性的东西。\n从这时起，经学和文学就算分了家。穿越到东汉中后期的洛阳城，千万别随便跟人谈论诗歌，当然你碰到曹操除外。\n黄巾之乱\n儒生知道“子不语怪力乱神”，但公公们不同，他们不但相信，残缺的身体往往还驱使他们更迫切地寻找灵魂寄托。黄巾之乱爆发时，汉灵帝发现他宠信的公公中，居然有两个太平道的信徒，正准备为信仰去出卖他和他的帝国。\n皇帝愤怒了，但手里没其它力量可用，只得走回用外戚的老路，请自己的大舅子何进来担任大将军，负责全国的剿匪行动。靠平息&quot;黄巾之乱&quot;重新回到政治舞台的舅爷和书生联盟，自然地要求帝国政治重新洗牌。以袁绍为首的&quot;正统派&quot;坚决要求根除宦官势力，双方冲突激化，非你死我活不能了结。\n灵帝去世，双方立刻发生火并。先是宦官诱杀大将军何进，随后何进手下的袁绍等人又尽杀宦官，双方两败俱伤。皇权的两大支柱一块完蛋，帝国顷刻崩溃，乱世烽烟。\n曹魏爱写诗，蜀汉多论文\n《诗经》中就有四言诗，正统派还能容忍，至于五言诗，在他们看来，不啻于离经叛道，以《青青河畔草》为代表的汉末无言《古诗十九首》，几乎可以肯定是出自“鸿都门学”文人群体之手。\n\n青青河畔草的后文“昔为倡家女，今为荡子妇。荡子行不归，空床难独守”之语\n\n”鸿都门学“开创了五言诗与文学艺术化的先河，这个文人群体有过短暂的辉煌，但随即湮灭在汉末兵火中，灵魂与肉体，竹简与诗歌，都在”十常侍之乱“和董卓毁洛阳的劫难中灰飞烟灭。\n建安七子领导的五言诗崛起，从此文学尤其是诗歌，登堂入室成为艺术。曹操还写了不少颇有影响力的四言诗，如《步出夏门行》，曹丕，曹植就以五言诗为主了。曹家本是公公之后，又处在挑战正统皇权的地位，自然也不惮于引领一群邺下文人群体，再多搞出个文学革命来了。\n反观”正统派“人设的蜀汉文人群体，他们就绝不写诗，更不会写五言诗，他们只写《出师表》、《陈情表》、《仇国论》这样铿锵有力的议论文。\n曹魏写诗，蜀汉议论，原来如此。\n曹魏的运气\n董卓迁都长安后，讨董联盟的诸侯们开始火并，北方的幽州名将公孙瓒开始了他的扩张之路。他在多年的对抗鲜卑，乌桓的战事中积累了大量经验，有包括白马义从的精锐骑兵队，实力在河北首屈一指。袁绍在冀州刺史让位给他（袁绍原为渤海太守）后，与公孙瓒互有攻伐胜负，甚至公孙瓒还略占上风，为何袁绍后来居上呢？\n公孙瓒始终有一个名不正言不顺的问题，他不是幽州的行政长官，受幽州牧刘虞的节制，自然非常不对付。而后公孙瓒杀害德高望重的刘虞，此番作为致使士族都不能同他合作，虽表面控制幽州，但暗流涌动。刘虞的子嗣 刘和 回到幽州，搅动时局。在鲍丘之战中，公孙瓒的势力被悍将麹($q\\bar{u}$)义给予歼灭性打击，一蹶不振，这距离公孙瓒俘杀刘虞，势力达到巅峰不过两年时间。\n对于志在控制河北的袁绍来说，鲍丘之战后他野心的最大阻碍变成了实力相当的刘和，及悍将麹义。此二人均被袁绍除掉，历史上虽没记载刘和的死因，可能是动用了暗杀或毒杀的手段，假装自然死亡。总之是理应成为幽州牧的刘和从史书中彻底消失了。\n官渡之战前，阎柔和鲜于辅不约而同放弃之前联合对抗公孙瓒的盟友袁绍，选择投靠曹操，其原因应可能就是刘和之死。对曹操来说，刘虞系力量的加盟，使得袁绍不但无法利用幽州资源对抗他，还要腾出资源去防备。\n可袁绍又有什么选择呢，如果不对刘和，麹义下黑手，他连初步整合黄河以北都做不到，只能说曹操的运气实在太好了。\n南北朝与隋唐\n隋前乱世\n581年，隋建立，标志着”魏晋南北朝“近400年的乱世行将结束，8年后，隋灭掉南方的陈朝，重新实现中国大一统。北周，隋，唐三个朝代的权力更替，实际上是在关陇集团内部进行的，更具体一点，是在同一个婚姻圈子，一堆亲戚间进行的。\n杨坚建立的隋朝，实际继承的是宇文泰家族控制的西魏–北周政权，完成的也是宇文泰家族未竟的统一大业。534年，北魏分裂为东西魏，这一段中国的演进如此：\nflowchart LR\nsubgraph 北朝一统脉络\nC[[北魏 : 拓跋/元]]-->J{孝武帝与高欢决裂自洛阳西逃}\nsubgraph 关陇集团\nF[[西魏]]-->G[[北周 : 宇文]]-->H[[隋 : 杨]]-->I[[唐 : 李]]\nend\nJ--孝武帝西逃长安几个月后被毒杀，另立魏文帝-->F\nend\nsubgraph 好牌打稀烂的一支\nJ--高欢另立孝静帝-->D(东魏)\nD-->E(北齐 : 高)\nend\nsubgraph 南朝\nA(南梁 : 萧)--侯景之乱-->B(南陈 : 陈)\nend\nE-->G\nB-->H\n当时东魏占据中原最富庶之地，河北一带是粮食和丝绢的高质产地，而西魏的地盘除了关中平原，大部分是贫瘠的黄土高原和沙漠地带。东魏人口逾2千万，西魏人口不及千万，东魏高欢家族掌控的军队超过20万，西魏宇文泰军队不及十分之一。最终的输赢，却是西魏实现了对东魏和南梁的逆袭。\n北魏末年六镇起义，在长达10年的乱局中，杀出了两大权臣家族，一是高欢家族，一是宇文泰家族。高欢崛起更早，当高欢拥立北魏孝武帝元修登位，遥掌朝权时，宇文泰还是关中地区实际控制者贺拔岳手下一员将领。\n北齐高家–鲜卑化的汉族政权\n起高楼\n高欢发迹比宇文泰早，实力也更强，他出生时，家族已在怀朔镇生活三代，成为鲜卑化汉人，他还有个鲜卑名，叫”贺六浑“。他虽为六镇中最底层的人，但相貌帅气，相传他在城门站岗时被鲜卑豪族女儿娄氏看上了，依靠妻子彩礼买了匹战马，终于当上队主，实现阶层首次上升。而后，”轻财重土“的高欢结交了许多同阶层朋友，而后投靠掌握北魏朝政的「尔朱兆」，很得尔朱兆赏识，六镇兵很快集结到高欢麾下。且其注重联合河北豪族武装，创业程中，通过一路的姻亲，朋友，乡里，联盟的力量积攒准备，与无能力的尔朱兆决裂。两场决战后，高欢胜出，掌权7年的尔朱兆兵败自杀。高欢在自己38岁时入洛阳另立新帝，自己为大丞相，太师，居晋阳，派心腹在邺城管理朝政。\n高欢视孝武帝元修为傀儡，而元修却视自己为君王，借口南伐梁朝，调兵遣将，高欢听到风声，进军洛阳。孝武帝仓促投奔关中，成为宇文泰自立对抗高欢的一张底牌。\n宴宾客\n高欢治下东魏一直有胡汉矛盾和腐败问题两个大雷。东魏稳定控制河北地区后，高欢转而开始抑制汉族豪强。此与宇文泰在关中吸收本地豪族，打造关陇军工集团，缔建胡汉共同体的做法，形成强烈对比，两位枭雄对待鲜卑化和汉化的根本态度，决定了谁最终被历史选中。\n高欢不信任汉人，将他封闭的民族理念传给了下一代，使得北齐在持续不断的内斗中走向了终点。在腐败问题上，高欢认为勋贵贪腐都是他们冒着生命危险打天下后应得的回报，他只要求勋贵都他的家族保持忠诚，其它一概不管。且还有奇葩理由，现三国分立，他若厉行反腐，会逼得功臣宿将投奔关中宇文泰或南方萧衍。从他为贪腐辩护的这番理论来看，虽称得上权谋大师，在乱世中白手起家实现霸业，但政治视野显得非常有限，治理国家能力欠缺。高欢做一个草莽大哥没有问题，能让底下弟兄过上为所欲为的生活，但做一个国家领导人则有待训练。\n在高欢儿子正密谋禅代事宜时，历史开了一个大玩笑，一个厨子将政治天赋极高的高澄刺杀了，前期装笨的弟弟高洋登上历史舞台。父子两代三人经17年努力，取代元氏家族，建立北齐王朝。\n楼塌了\n高洋同样很有政治才干，但在将北齐带到一个高度后，开始彻底放飞自我，将家族和人性中的恶释放出来了：纵欲，乱伦，酗酒，滥杀，内斗，连同高欢遗留的胡汉矛盾和贪腐，所有问题一起爆发，使得北齐成为历史上臭名昭著的禽兽王朝。\n高欢家族精神气质表现：尚武好侠，嗜酒好色，智商高，情商欠缺。子孙都具有卓越军事才能，高洋就经常在战场上冲锋陷阵，身先士卒，表现十分勇猛，也遗传了爱喝酒的基因。但高欢自制力很好，大事后饮酒必不过三杯，而高洋则不然，统治晚期只喝酒不吃饭，34岁的时候就饮酒过度暴毙。且酒后嗜杀乱性。乱性也是高欢家族一种病态，高欢就收集了一众人妻，在这方面儿子们比其父有过之无不及。高澄先后与父亲两个妃子私通，还强奸大将高慎妻子，造成其叛逃西魏，引发邙山大战。还调戏奸污二弟高洋妻子。故而高洋称帝后，公然强奸哥哥妻子元氏。另一个弟弟称帝后也逼奸二嫂（高洋妻子）。乱伦之事已然乱套，不仅如此，还聚众淫乱。史学家通常认为，高氏家族自认鲜卑人，并对汉化改革十分排斥，视娶弟媳，纳寡嫂等鲜卑民族习俗为正常之事。\n高洋建立北齐后，既需要宗室成员与怀朔勋贵维持军政统治，又担心这些人权势膨胀对皇权构成威胁。后期一项主要工作便是对宗室诸王进行打压，先后以各种理由逼死自己的族叔，两个弟弟。而他暴毙后，儿子的皇位第二年便被两个叔叔政变废掉，借口是清君侧的弘农杨氏汉族辅政大臣，恐威胁鲜卑人利益。接班的高湛也跟其兄高洋一样，酒色过度而死。而后就是没完没了宗室内斗。\n北周宇文家–汉化的鲜卑政权\n宇文泰在贺拔岳突然遇害情况下成功接收其军团，源于武川豪酉家族的出身，个人的政治军事才能及在关陇地区4年积累的口碑。此时宇文泰远未能与高欢抗衡，他需要与孝武帝联手，取得政治合法性。孝武帝不甘心接受被权臣操控的命运，无时无刻不在希望借助不愿降服于高欢的军事势力。在匡辅魏室的旗帜下，宇文泰称霸关陇。在孝武帝与高欢决裂后，慌忙带领自己的人马西逃，投奔宇文泰。通过迎奉孝武帝迁都长安，把高欢置于乱臣贼子的舆论高压下，宇文泰的这招与以往曹操狭天子以令诸侯有异曲同工之妙。\n收留逃亡皇帝北魏二分\n孝武帝本质上是一个权力欲望很强的年轻人，宇文泰决定先下手，秘密鸩($zh\\grave{e}n$)杀了年仅26岁的孝武帝，改立好控制的元宝炬为帝。此前，高欢以孝武帝弃国逃跑为由，改立元善见为帝，并迁都邺城，北魏正式分裂为东西魏。\n从跟随贺拔岳进入关中，到成为西魏实际掌权者，仅用了不到5年时间。\n关陇改革\n历史上，任何改革都指向富国强兵，但历史上改革成少败多，不少改着改着就把一个国家改没了。宇文泰也开始操刀改革，因为不改革西魏肯定亡。\n离宇文泰最近的一场改革，是北魏孝文帝主导的改革，此场改革在北魏百年左右，鲜卑贵族利益板结时进行，以汉化为核心。改革者是有魄力的，但改完后北魏也乱了，不到30年就分裂成了东西魏。\n宇文泰的这场改革涉及广泛，政治经济军事文化无所不包，其建立起来的各项制度，成为北周，隋朝，唐朝的制度滥觞，影响深远。史学界认为隋唐帝国是”北朝化“的中国，很大程度上指的是西魏制度的影响力。\n府兵制\n尤其在军事制度上，宇文泰建立的府兵制以及由此形成的关中本位政策，深刻影响了此后300多年的中国历史。\n鲜卑化与汉化，是北魏一直以来最为棘手的一对矛盾，宇文泰的高明之处是从中找到了一条高明的道路，实现了胡汉政策的有效结合。而府兵制则是其胡汉政策结合的最重要内容。\n东西魏分立时，均以北魏六镇军事力量为基础立国，只是宇文泰仅有武川镇一镇的军力。这也是高欢动辄强势兵力碾压宇文泰的原因。要改变军力不足的局面，必须扩大兵力来源，持续吸收关陇地区豪强的私有兵力及各方势力。地方大族及其乡兵以汉族为主，也解决了地方豪族拥兵自重，尾大不掉的问题。由于当时盛行军阀割据，而鲜卑的军队部落属性很强，基本只认各自的首领，不认中央。宇文泰还急需解决军权的中央集权化问题。\n宇文泰采取了很高明的一招，设置八柱国，十二大将军的组织结构。八柱国除宇文泰和元魏宗室代表元欣之外，其余六人各督二大将军，分掌禁旅，合计十二大将军。每个大将军各领开府二人，每一开府各领一军，合计二十四军。\n柱国与大将军势力相互交错，牵制，有利于宇文泰进行最终的驾驭。特别是各个柱国，依次被任命为朝廷公卿，身份由边镇将领变成开国元勋，朝廷重臣，逐渐脱离军旅生涯，变相削弱了他们的军事实力，实现了军权的初步集权化。\n关中本位\n宇文泰将西迁的汉族将领籍贯，一律改为关陇郡望，给予大批出身寒微的汉将附会士族高门的机会，并由此构建”关中本位“观念，强化本地华戎族群的凝聚力和认同感，从而与山东（崤山以东），江左争中原正统。宇文泰家族很看重立足关中的周朝历史资源，后来自立的政权干脆以”周“为国号，这些都是胡汉融合”关中化“的体现。\n改革收效\n府兵制的创建和完备，在宇文泰手上前后历时12年才完成。最终西魏军队人数翻了一番，府兵达到5万人，中央对军权实现了强有力的控制，结束了地方割据，私立林立的状态。且府兵制是兵民分离的职业兵，相比东魏北齐兵民合一的义务兵，整体素质和战斗力更强。\n运气爆棚\n面对东魏三路进攻，西魏一些将领建议分兵把守诸道，但若按此部署，则使本来就处于弱势的西魏兵力更为分散，极可能被各个击破。宇文泰关键时刻，做了一个赌徒式的判断，赌高欢造浮桥渡河只是虚张声势，实则掩护窦泰部从潼关趁虚而入。那就先集中兵力消灭窦泰一路。宇文泰放出烟雾弹，扬言欲保陇右，退还长安，暗地率6千骑兵东出，日夜兼程，很快抵达潼关附近，窦泰听闻宇文泰军突至，仓促应战。宇文泰利用有利地形，四面埋伏，诱窦泰部陷入泥淖($n\\grave{a}o$) ，千弩齐发，窦泰军死伤大半，被俘万余人。宇文泰在与高欢的心理博弈中，押中了后者兵分三路的真实目的，出奇兵，以少胜多击败窦泰，使得东魏军队全面撤退。潼关之战后，宇文泰以攻为守，数次出兵侵蚀东魏领土，而后的数次双方交战，东魏都没占到便宜，最后在围攻玉璧城（山西稷山西南）的战斗中，10w人久攻50天不克，战死及病故者约7w人，高欢忧愤成疾，回到晋阳不久，就病死了，时年52岁。\n高欢死后，他的儿子代东魏自立北齐政权，被宇文泰家族的北周政权攻灭。\n除开90%的努力，东魏猛将侯景的搅局就是宇文泰那10%的运气。东魏没高欢，侯景早就称王称霸了，高欢在世时，侯景拥兵10w，专制河南，高欢病逝仅几日，侯景就造反了。但侯景的地盘属四战之地，凭这个自立，独自对抗三国哪一方，都是很难的事。在举起反旗的那一刻，侯景就张罗找靠山了。他首先想到的是西魏，起初宇文泰觉得划算，遂派兵去支援侯景。宇文泰部将站出来劝谏，说侯景这个人反复无常，高欢一死便叛离，怎么会忠于西魏呢，他只是不愿作被困在池中的蛟龙，想利用我们的军事支援罢了。宇文泰一听，甚觉有理，才避免了一场惹火上身的大祸。\n最终这枚苦果被梁武帝吞食了，梁武帝被活活饿死，而梁朝本有统一天下的可能，经侯景之乱后变成了无力复兴，任人宰割的弱国。北齐和西魏都借机吃成了一个大胖子。梁朝崩溃后，梁武帝的子侄们陷入无尽的内斗，让宇文泰看到了机会。公元554年，荆襄成了西魏的地盘，连荆襄以南的湘州（湖南）也一度被西魏拿下，发展为三国中的头号强国，综合实力在北齐之上，不要说后来的陈朝了。这段暴发史，从侯景之乱算起，不过六七年时间。若不是梁武帝引入侯景，自我毁灭，宇文泰连关中都出不了，这就叫机运，在宇文泰生命中的最后几年，被他牢牢地抓住了。公元556年，宇文泰病逝，年仅50岁。557年，宇文泰家族取代东魏自立，建立北周。\n北周被大隋摘了果子\n20年后577年，宇文泰之子，北周武帝宇文邕($y\\bar{o}ng$)，攻灭北齐，统一北方。578年，正当其打算平突厥定江南，实现统一全国的时候，却在出征前病逝。3年后，杨坚篡北周自立，拉开华夏第二帝国序幕，距离宇文泰之死，仅仅过去25年，七八年后，中国一统。\n离隋最近一次统一历程，是西晋，也是借前朝奠定的统一基础，完成统一大业。有所不同的是，西魏立国时是最弱小的一方，但也埋下了不安的种子，就是统治者一直有心机的要削弱河东地区的人力，河东豪族与关中地区一直有不安分的种子，隋末大工程大战争，安史之乱都有此背景。\n侯景之乱的搅局运气\n萧衍老年痴呆？\n梁武帝是老年痴呆还是聪明过头？他对皇族成员和世族高门的确宽厚到不可思议的程度，是对宋齐两朝皇族激烈内斗的矫枉过正，但对民众犯罪惩罚极严，且实行连坐，一人逃亡，全家都要被罚作苦工。\n他是不是有圣母心，收留侯景。非也，侯景冒充东魏政权写信试探梁武帝，提出用侯景交换被俘虏的皇族萧渊明时，他可是说立即就可以将侯景送回去。请求梁武帝赐婚时，梁武帝说王谢门第太高别妄想了，可见心里并未把侯景当回事。\n那么他纵容侯景筹备叛乱，是怎么回事呢？\n侯景是东魏开创者高欢的主要合作伙伴，高欢死后，侯景不愿继续做他儿子高澄的臣子，反叛并向梁朝求援。梁武帝就让自己的侄子萧渊明带兵支援侯景。然而两拨人都败了，萧渊明反被俘。侯景只剩八百人渡过淮河进入梁朝境内淮南重镇寿阳城附近。侯景得知自己可能会被梁武帝用来交换俘虏时，果断以占据的寿阳为基地，打着“清君侧”的旗号起兵造反。梁武帝萧衍听说侯景叛乱，呵呵大笑：我只要折下一根树枝就能打死这小子。实际上，他是等待侯景反叛的。\n寿阳是北魏末年局势大乱，梁军趁乱收复的，从梁朝立国到侯景叛乱期间，寿阳属北朝的时间还多于南朝时间，对建康朝廷的离心力很强。以夏侯氏和裴氏为代表的当地豪族对萧衍和南梁是极度排斥的，本质上是当地豪族联合北方来的侯景反抗梁武帝的行动。所以，北魏和南梁之间十万大军都未能攻下的寿阳城，侯景仅用八百人就拿下了。\n既然前任地方长官无力压制当地豪族，干脆让侯景去搅局，敢叛乱就来个一锅端，战后对该地区的控制可以大大加强。\n奇葩”废太子“助攻\n当初占据寿阳的侯景，最初目标不过是割地自保，然而一个奇葩的萧梁皇族萧正德主动上门求合作，让侯景看到了新的机会。萧正德是萧衍弟弟萧宏的儿子，当年萧衍没儿子，就过继了弟弟的这个儿子。没想到萧衍自从起兵自立开始，突然连生许多个儿子，于是就将萧正德归还到弟弟名下，称帝后立长子萧统为太子，就是著名的文学家昭明太子。萧正德一直愤愤不平，后来找机会投奔了北魏，对外自称“废太子”。\n北魏大概把这货当神经病，毕竟叔父是皇帝，亲爹是有大实权的亲王，却跑来投奔敌国，甚至一度有人建议杀掉这个“间谍”。北魏没杀他，基本拿他当空气，最后他受不了了，又跑回了南梁。对宗室宽厚到不可思议的萧衍不但没罚他，流泪劝诫他一番后，竟然恢复了他的爵位，让他继续做官。侯景叛乱时，竟然任命萧正德做平北将军，真是选对人了，废太子决定和侯景联合搏一把大的。由于淮南豪族的支持和萧正德的叛变，侯景从最初占据寿阳叛乱到渡过长江直逼首都建康城，都没有遇到什么样的抵抗。\n力量逆转\n萧正德起初比侯景实力强很多，在最初的合作关系中居优势地位。在萧正德看来，侯景只不过是一个凶悍的打手。侯景不久拥立萧正德称帝，自己为丞相，而在围攻建康城的过程中，双方的合作力量对比却逆转了。因为联军实力相比守军仍相差甚远，故侯景想法设法扩大自己的力量，他敏锐察觉到南梁尖锐的阶级矛盾：萧衍对皇族和世家大族极度放纵，南梁底层充斥着大量破产的农民和部曲奴婢，这些人方是沉默的大多数。\n在依靠自己的力量进攻建康失败后，侯景下令解放当时豪门贵族家中的奴婢，废除了梁朝沉重的赋税，开仓放粮，奴婢们纷纷投靠侯景，侯景也选拔他们之中有才能者为官。就这样，侯景很快就有了10w之众，都是有顽强斗争精神的构成。与萧正德合作关系中也占据了绝对上风。晚些时候，不满意侯景凌驾自己之上的萧正德试图杀掉侯景时，反被侯景所杀。\n皇族的觊觎\n事情到这个地步，完全超出了萧衍的预料，不但没能借机清除淮南的反对势力，反而使自己麻烦不断。但萧衍还没放弃希望，因为各地亲王几十万勤王大军已经要到了。可是他统治天下近半个世纪，此时已经八十多岁了，是惊人的高寿，包括昭明太子萧统在内，许多子孙已经在他之前病死了，当时的太子萧纲也在围城之内，对于那些正在壮年，手握重兵的南梁亲王来说，这是一个天赐良机，如果能借侯景的手同时除掉梁武帝和太子萧纲呢？各路援军各怀鬼胎，在力量小许多又要围城的侯景军前梭巡不前。\n城破后梁武帝被俘后不久被饿死，萧纲即位后沦为侯景的傀儡，失去了号令天下的合法性，在侯景失败前被杀。侯景最后被梁元帝萧绎击败，各地亲王丧失了约束，在侯景败亡前就大打内战，还不惜向北方的西魏，北齐求助，最终被来自南方的军阀陈霸先摘了桃子。梁朝被推翻，只剩昭明太子一系在西魏保护下继续控制着江陵一带。\n南北定局\n侯景之乱和南梁内战，打破了东晋建立后南北对峙200年的均势，侯景之乱前，南朝大约是三国吴蜀两国之和，在加上孙权梦寐以求的淮南地区，侯景之乱后，南朝丧失了所有南北缓冲地带，川蜀被西魏政权屯兵，淮南全境落入了北齐之手。基本只剩吴国地盘在南朝，这地界内，还分裂成两个死敌，陈朝，其主要领土建康城和三吴地区在战乱中遭遇毁灭性的摧残，实力大大下降，长江中游后梁政权，以江陵为首都，方圆只三百里，在西魏的保护下才能延续下去。存在的战略价值就是控制长江中下游遏制陈朝的发展空间。\n此时，南北朝由北方统一南方的结局已经确定，是北方本身的分裂和战争，才使南朝又苟延残喘了三十多年。梁武帝真正的问题是机关算尽，却对自己治下国内的尖锐阶级矛盾和皇族成员的自私心理没有充分认识。\n萧氏门阀\n\n齐和梁均出自兰陵萧氏，但萧衍和齐皇室亲戚关系刚出了五服至亲，作为血缘关系继承南齐大统，合法性和优先级并不强。且齐这个国号在内部乱杀的法统传承上已紊乱不堪，且对外战争连连战败，被北魏不断夺地，还内战不止，天下不堪其扰。萧衍换掉旧招牌，以全新国号示于天下，反有拨乱反正，咸与维新的意味。\n兰陵萧氏建立的王朝虽灭亡，但却成为中世纪顶级门阀，有唐一代就出了十位宰相，《琅琊榜》也是以兰陵萧氏为原型，火爆异常。\n\n隋杨家祖传残暴\n\n与被称为变态王朝的北齐相比，杨家三代是理性的残忍，对待被征服的城市和俘虏，治理下的平民百姓，残暴程度远超北齐。隋朝速亡一点也不冤枉。\n\n隋文帝的父亲杨忠是一位英勇善战的武将，早年滞留南朝，后加入北魏，北魏分裂后，投向西魏，长期跟随独孤信与高欢的东魏作战。独孤信在史书上因为分别嫁女儿给北周，隋，唐三朝皇族而知名。其中一个女儿嫁给战友杨忠之子杨坚。一次战役中，独孤信和杨忠被侯景打得一败涂地，无力返回关中大本营投入南梁。虽在南梁未立功，梁武帝仍给给了他俩优厚的生活待遇，等他几人想返回关中继续未西魏效力，梁武帝不但同意还亲自饯行。对于梁武帝的恩德，杨忠在打猎时多次惺惺作态，鸟向南飞就不射箭，表达对梁武帝的感谢。但而后的事情，上演的却是《农夫与蛇》。\n侯景之乱，南梁内部混乱时，西魏趁机南下在荆州方向扩张，杨忠在新征服地区烧杀抢掠，得到大量金银，但并没有将战利品上交朝廷统一分配，而是全部私吞。南梁被俘将领向宇文泰提及了此事，宇文泰考虑到杨忠功劳不小，将其外调了事，但杨忠认为他没错，错的是告发他的人。后来怕再次暴露自己抢劫后私吞战利品的行为，把控制此地区的所有梁朝贵族杀光灭口。攻破江陵城后，挑完充作奴婢的人后，制造了江陵大屠杀，只有三百多家人幸存下来。杨忠晚年还参加了与北齐的多次大战，也是纵兵大掠，也看出刚形成的关陇集团极度野蛮，残暴。杨忠的表现比起其子的大破坏来，却显得微不足道。\n杨坚不太费力当了开国皇帝，其崛起是他女婿北周宣帝宇文赟打压宗室和托孤重臣的结果，宣帝短短几年相继除掉宗室主要成员，作为外戚的杨坚才能迅速崛起，宇文赟又早早暴死，杨坚趁机控制了中枢。而后杨坚大肆屠杀宇文氏皇族，所有宇文泰子孙辈杀尽及各种旁支。顺着族谱全部灭绝的残暴，在当时堪称独一份。称帝后的猜忌心和刻薄寡恩也很突出，大部分功臣都没有善终。有许多朝臣甚至由于激怒了杨坚被打死在朝堂上，这些只是统治阶级的倾轧。\n屠戮平毁城市\n对百姓的罪行，更是夸张。其篡位过程中，控制邺城的北周宗室尉迟䢛(宇文泰的外甥，官拜相州【今安阳】总管)起兵反抗，被杨坚击败。而后在邺城屠杀一个多月。这次杀戮过于惨烈，以至于一向残暴的杨坚都会良心不安，多年后在屠杀旧址上建立了一座大慈寺超度亡魂。自三国曹魏时代起，邺城就是河北重镇【铜雀台也在邺城】，历经数百年发展，是河北最繁华的大城，出征前，杨坚就授意将领们胜利后把邺城从地图上彻底抹去，伴随一个多月的烧杀和之后对城市的平毁，邺城（邯郸市临漳县）这座超级大城彻底从史书消失了，沧海桑田，漳河改北流为东向，河道向东拦腰贯穿过邺城，邺城冲毁，看不出曾经繁华的迹象，一马平川，零星散落着几个村庄。后来唐朝的邺城（今安阳），已与河北历史名城实不为一地（但地理上靠近接壤，距18公里，比临漳县所属的邯郸市40公里更近）。\n\n春秋时，齐桓公始建邺城；战国时魏文侯定为陪都，也是西门豹投巫治邺之地；曹操于邺城兴霸业（取了袁绍大本营），建铜雀台，封王后国都也在邺城，曹丕篡汉后以此为北都；后赵、东魏、北齐相继都邺。\n\n\n同样倒霉的还有南朝首都建康，隋灭陈统一南北后，建康遭受灭顶之灾，地面建筑全部拆毁，真正字面意义夷为平地，随后开垦成田。整个隋唐，南京地区基本默默无闻，地位被扬州取代。\n大兴土木故意消耗民力\n隋文帝一大功绩是兴建大兴城（唐长安城），只花了9个月就建成，在依靠人力的古代，这么快的速度，背后同样是人民的血泪。据资治通鉴的整理记录，一个仁寿宫，死者数万。纵观隋文帝一生，堪比后赵暴君石虎，但因为他捡便宜重新统一南北终结大分裂时代，因此在历史上被大大过誉。\n杨广是中国历史上知名的暴君，但就史书事迹而言，他的残暴没超越其父亲和祖父，虚伪程度也未及他们。作为亡国之君往往被丑化到不可理喻的程度，就像开国之君通常得到额外美誉一样。隋炀帝一些被历史证明是错误的决策，除开个人品质，背后也有其政治和战略考量。\n修建大运河和攻伐高句丽，一个罪在当代，一个功败垂成。但这两个政治决策本身是一回事，不惜人力物力的蛮干，存在一个常被人忽略的战略意图：蓄意削弱原北齐控制区的人力、物力。\n北周吞并南梁西部领土后，人口有700~800w，到隋文帝篡位时，官方掌握户口约460w户，共2900w人。经历战乱后，原北齐境内户籍人口约2000w，而北周领土只有900w，对比悬殊。灭南陈时，陈朝在册人口300w。北齐境内人口远远超过北周和南朝境内人口总数之和。\n北齐灭于比自己弱许多的北周，是因为皇族内讧过于激烈。对于以关陇集团为基本盘起家的隋朝来说，北齐故地对自己的统治是极度危险的，必须尽可能多耗一些。隋炀帝开辟大运河，善待原来南朝士族，自己也以萧梁皇族后裔为皇后，有联合南朝力量压制北齐故地的因素在内。在修建大运河时如此不恤民力，很大程度就是为了削弱北齐故地人力财力优势而蓄意为之。高智商的隋炀帝，在征讨高句丽时，劳民伤财如同“脑残”，他内心希望的是北齐故地和高句丽两败俱伤。高句丽固然是个威胁，但实际上北齐故地一旦整合出强势反隋势力，对隋朝威胁更大。\n把关东地区人民视为假想敌的隋炀帝最终玩火自焚，死于最信任的关中人组成的近卫军之手。隋朝这个对百姓无比残暴的政权终于倒台了。隋末的天下大乱，关东也成了群雄混战的主战场，关中地区和江南地区遭到的破坏相对小得多。\n到唐太宗时末期，北齐故地的精华部分也是唐朝最富，人口最多的河北和河南两道，登记人口分别只有隋巅峰时期的17%和10%，人口下降比例厉害程度可见一斑，当然这种可以削弱北齐故地的行为，也使得李渊统一天下时十分顺利，给唐做了嫁衣。\n瓦岗盟主被李渊得了天下\n瓦岗寨李密是顶级豪门贵族，曾祖父李弼在关陇集团地位相当高，祖父是北周魏国公，虽然李密早年丧父，但他继承了父亲的爵位和财产，因身份高贵，早年李密被选为隋炀帝的侍卫，但隋炀帝看他不顺眼，将他打发回家了。\n初叛失败\n李密后来加入了杨玄感发起的反隋义军（二人都算是门阀出身，只是李密家族在关陇集团内部地位要远高于杨玄感），成了头号智囊，他提了上中下三策：\n\n上策是在河北蓟($j\\grave{i}$)县截击在辽东和高句丽作战的隋炀帝主力归路，夹击粮草不足的隋军主力；\n中策是进入关中，占领长安慢慢发展；\n下策是先占领东都洛阳。\n\n杨玄感选择了下策，在洛阳守军坚守和关中，辽东兵的夹击下败死。为何选择下策，杨玄感起兵时关中或是洛阳，均有庞大的正规军，辽东军在隋炀帝指挥下，一个月就回援，杨注定成为先烈。\n杨的叛军基本力量是河南地区的民众，装备差。让这些人远离老家去遥远的河北或关中作战，士气和战斗力必大打折扣。所谓上策，很难落实。等李密有了数十万之众，包括精锐的骑兵队，遇上归心似箭的隋军主力，仍极度吃力，杨招募的乌合之众去拦截，无异螳臂当车。\n隋炀帝依照宁枉勿纵的原则，大肆追查株连，一口气捕杀3w多人，流放6k多人，甚至将接受杨开仓赈济的百姓全部处死。然而李密竟靠贿赂押送者逃脱了。\n瓦岗称王\n隐姓埋名后投靠瓦岗寨，显示出了极高的军事才华，在军中的地位迅速上升，在翟让之外独领一军，攻占洛口仓胜利后，由于李密家族地位很高，开始有大批隋朝任命的官吏带着地盘来投，如裴仁基带秦琼，程咬金等来投。这个时期，魏征亦加入他的麾下。周边的饥民被粮仓吸引，纷纷加入瓦岗军，各路小武装拥戴李密为盟主。大部分中原地区名义上成了李密的地盘。李密考虑到洛阳附近隋军仍然强大，称王时机尚不成熟，决定先称魏公。\n此刻，他也面临先入关还是先占洛阳的选择。放弃洛阳直扑长安，在当时时一个胜率很小的豪赌。孤军在两方夹击下很容易被瓮中捉鳖。关中东北方向，山西长官李渊仍忠于隋炀帝，要到几个月后才会起兵反隋，一旦入关，可能要应对三面受敌局面。而且，老瓦岗军，饥民及各路叛军，基本都不愿意在攻下洛阳前入关。因此，李密必须攻克洛阳或将洛阳守军削弱到一定程度，才可能进入关中地区经营。他的队伍多是山东人，不攻克洛阳的话，怎么愿意跟其向西进关？且把绿林好汉出身的反王们留下，必相互争夺，关东就必然全丢了。\n洛阳消耗战\n作为隋王朝的东都，李密和隋朝打起消耗战，关中也派军增援，李密负箭伤，左右司马都战死。而休息一个月后，李密再次出动全部精锐去找隋军拼命，大胜，三大粮仓全部落入其手。洛阳守军再次陷入被动，甚至河北窦建德等势力都向李密表达了归附之意。隋炀帝害怕其对关中，河北控制被切断，砸锅卖铁从江淮和河北调兵支援洛阳。\n李密开始和在江淮流域剿灭起义军的王世充大战，首战失利而后三胜，洛阳地区的十几万隋军基本或死或降。王世充试图挑起李密和翟让的矛盾，分化瓦岗军，而李密干净利落火并了翟让。而这一时期关中地区落入了他人之手，李渊太原起兵后利用关中部分隋军东出支援洛阳，洛阳守军和各地隋军都在和李密缠斗的机会，从山西直入关中，很快控制了整个关中，得了大利。当李密即将攻占洛阳时，控制关中的李渊派李建成和李世民率10w军东出，趁乱捞好处，双方发生若干次小冲突，互有胜负。\n“骁果”军影响战局\n隋炀帝禁卫军大部分是关中人，急于返回故乡，终发起政变，弑君后拥戴宇文化及为主，沿大运河北上，开始向关中进军。他们必须要经过的地盘，就是李密控制下的中原地区。当10w禁卫军向李密请求借道，借粮时，李密终和禁卫军发生了战斗。\n影响李密做出决策的关键性因素，就是对“骁果”禁卫军战力的评估。“骁果”军的战斗力远超李密想象，且他中箭受了重伤。经过跟“骁果”军的力战，李密身经百战的嫡系部队基本消耗殆尽，“骁果”军也战至力竭，没能攻占粮仓而断了粮，最后大部分成员反过来投降李密。\n李密和“骁果”军恶战时，王世充在洛阳发动政变，重新和李密作对。本来只需用饥饿逼迫城里士兵投降就行，但新投降过来的“骁果”军将帅和原翟让系统的单雄信等人都撺掇李密和王世充决战。在进攻洛阳的战役中，李密嫡系内军先接战，先前没有得到恢复败下阵来。撺掇他进攻洛阳的一拨人又投降了王世充，李密一下子陷入了穷途末路，只好向西投奔李渊的唐王朝。\n卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡\n李渊对所有曾称帝称王的群雄的处理方针，一律采取设计肉体消灭的政策。\n在隋末群雄中，李密是唯一有可能同唐王朝一较高下的人物。可惜在隋朝腹心地区洛阳周边起兵的李密，必须先战胜洛阳守军，才有资格真正实行西进关中或南下剿灭隋炀帝残余势力的战略，偏偏洛阳对于隋炀帝也是绝不可失去的地方，双方在洛阳城下进行了长年的消耗战，最后几乎同归于尽。在李密麾下效力的徐世勣，秦叔宝，程咬金，则继续为唐帝国南征北战。\n李承乾为太子为何还谋反\n太子和能当上皇帝完全是两码事，尤其是站在隋唐那个年代上。他弟弟李泰已经有了都督22州的大权，几乎占了当时全国1/8，还当上了雍州牧，这可是之前李世民干过的位置。李承乾的心里肯定是要哆嗦，他要是想学习一下太子该怎么做，往前一看。上一位太子他大爷被他爹干掉，再往前看是隋文帝太子杨勇被弟弟杨广干掉，清一色的全无好下场。\n在李承乾之前顺利完成父子间正常皇位传承的太子都是陈后主时候的事情了，说明在那个时代，皇位就不是靠太子这个位子得来的。唐之前，是短暂的隋朝和混乱的魏晋南北朝，再之前是宗室内部有爱的掏心掏肺的西晋，废杀弑篡这些字眼几乎到处都是，大家玩的几乎都是承乾他爹的那套玄武门继承法：宗室们先是开刀互砍，等有实力的宗室死的差不多了，就该轮到那些有实力的大臣们了，最后顺利上位，完成改朝换代。\n往后看，整个大唐二百八十九年，皇位的交接几乎没几次顺利完成的，除了李承乾被废后的李治之外，第一个顺利继承的竟是安史后的代宗李豫，是玄宗的孙子。连代宗本人都差点成了政变的牺牲品，代宗后皇位都不是皇帝太子说了算了，得看神策军支持谁。\n历史上的太子好做的不多，历史上皇帝和太子关系大多数都是紧张的，因为在帝制环境下，他俩本身就是天生的正敌，尤其是在科举制还不成气候的时候，士绅群体不够大。当时的中国是一个皇帝宗族氏族勋贵豪强共生共治，谁都不服谁的社会。当时东亚乱了快300年了，别说太子，皇帝能善终的都没有几个，位置不是拼爹是拼命。看了几百年的大乱斗后，剩下满满的求生欲可以理解。\n立嫡立长立贤\n汉人王朝喜欢立嫡立长，只有清朝选择立贤。这个结论首先不准确。汉唐属于嫡子/长子继承的，都远不到一半，宋朝更是惨，一大半人连儿子都没生出来（绝嗣是宋朝皇帝一大特色），真正贯彻嫡长子继承制的只有明代，这么热衷，主要是朱棣之后，他自己的宗室就是最不稳定的因素，只有用嫡长子这个死命令把小宗们封印起来养猪，大宗才敢安心睡觉。\n所以立嫡立长或立贤，最重要的核心因素就是稳定。清代宗室制度和明朝不一样，不是封王养猪的制度，且要把宗室尽可能利用起来好好培养统治数量庞大的汉人。他们也想学汉人立嫡立长，子嗣不昌，像活了最久的乾隆，十七个儿子，活到成年的只有10个，到最后一次秘密立储确定由永琰即位是乾隆三十八年（此时63岁），那个时候乾隆能立的儿子已经不多了。永琰能即位不一定是因为他很优秀，主要是生的晚活得久。大多数皇帝几乎都没得选，要么是紫禁城风水问题，要么是只能与满蒙贵族通婚，近亲结婚的后果。所以立贤是一种游牧民族的变形制度，也是一种子嗣不昌的无奈选择。\n立长还是立贤，都有问题，立长司马家弄出傻子当皇帝，立贤隋炀帝戏精胜出，老领导眼光判断失误几率很大，其实还是玄武门继承法最有能力，只是不利于王朝的稳定。\n嫡长子继承制，是以官僚集团把活都干好为前提的。总体上汉族从稳定交班出发追求立嫡立长，实际情况嫡长有被废被杀病死的，不是想立一定能立。在继承人问题上，多数朝代都是灵活操作。\n安史之乱\n唐的衰落\n强盛、富庶、开放、包容的大唐是中国人梦魂萦绕的朝代，万邦来朝。为大唐盛世找到一个根源，那么这个根源最应该是：均田与府兵。士兵多是家中有田的自耕农，他们平时为农，战时为兵，上阵杀敌虽然需要自备武器，但是相较于税负的减免，取得战功还可获得封田，对于世代以土地为生的中国人来说，土地的奖励最能聚拢人心，大唐府兵勇武无双。那些年，大唐走入了一个正向循环：朝臣上战场，开疆扩土可获封地爵位官位，百姓上阵杀敌可免税，立功还有封田。大唐上下锐意进取，原本虎视眈眈的外敌纷纷被打怕打服。虽然还有一个讨厌的吐蕃，但这并不妨碍这个时代成为盛世，但盛世的裂痕也从中产生：边患日甚，藩镇割据与宦官专权如三朵恶之花在大唐盛世下依次开放，三者互为因果，交替生长，最终消解了大唐的所有荣光。\n府兵制的崩坏\n大唐战斗力来自府兵，府兵制的基础是均田制，理论上讲，通过军事行动开疆扩土可以获得更多的土地封与府兵，府兵一方面戍边开疆，一方面生产繁衍，这个模式可以一直持续下去。但是，任何事情皆有极限，中国古人为何不厌其烦的修建长城，因为长城所保护的是适合农耕的土地，而长城之外的土地大多只适合游牧，在生产技术落后的农耕时代，这些土地未必是资源，一旦过多甚至可能是累赘\n\n一个帝国如果能够持续对外用兵，其原因只可能是一个：对外用兵，是个赚钱的买卖。\n\n如果对外用兵变成赔钱的买卖，这种用兵就不再是盛世之光，而是乱世之源，但很可惜，大唐由于前期扩张太快，边境线太长，需要更多的士兵镇守，于是大唐不得不将这个赔钱的买卖继续下去。在农耕地带或半农半牧地带打仗，主场优势在大唐这边，但是一旦战场转移至游牧地带，大唐的主场优势就变成了客场劣势。超过临界点后，战争变得越来越不划算，但大唐已经回不到从前，只能硬着头皮往坚持下去。\n府兵制的基础是均田制，但是一方面，随着人口数量的增加，国家手中可供分封的公田很快消耗殆尽，而另一方面，土地兼并让无数有地农民变成失地流民。从古至今，随着社会稳定，土地和财富向少数人手中集中的趋势，就像地心引力一样不可抗拒，即使抛来权贵势力使用暴力手段的强行兼并，如果政府不加干涉，土地的趋势也是向少数人集中。\n时代一粒沙，个人一座山，支撑起大唐的府兵们家中确实有田，比给别人种田的佃农要好，但是家中那为数不多的田产也是他们唯一的资产了。一次旱灾、水灾，家人患一次重病，都会把这些在战场上无所畏惧的汉子们逼到走投无路，只能卖地以解燃眉之急，于是，他们没地了。\n地没了，边疆还得守，仗还得打，但他们没有了可以种粮换钱买兵器的土地，这仗怎么打？没有兵器上战场就是送死，去他大爷的，逃吧。于是，大唐荣耀的根：大唐府兵，崩溃了！战斗力减弱，大唐的疆域和边界又过大，那些当年被打服的少数民族还能继续臣服吗？绝不可能，于是，大唐的边患旋即又起，并且愈演愈烈，似乎永远都处理不完。\n节度使割据\n总结来说，唐在击败东突厥等周边民族后，边疆地区军事形式发生战略性转变，由进攻转为防御，为有效防御吐蕃，突厥，契丹等民族的侵扰，需在边境设立固定的军事指挥体系。而从高宗武后以来，均田制逐渐被破坏，导致流民逃户问题严重，一方面是边疆需要大量人员从军守边，一方面大量流民无处安置，于是二者结合，玄宗时期就大量招募流民来充军戍边，于是募兵制取代了府兵制，为节度使制度的出现提供了条件。既然是为了应对边疆地区快速变化的军事形势，那么改革军事指挥体系也有必要，需要建立边防快速反应部队，财政和后勤就要跟上，中央不能全部解决后勤保障问题，不能给钱就要给政策，就是允许各边防军屯田自行解决供应问题，财权下放给节度使（税收田赋不交中央，留作军费），军财治理权均落入节度使手中。可见节度使的设置是中央政府为了应对来自多个方向的边患压力，在边境地区设立军事和行政机构来快速应对而设立的，在中央无法提供后勤保障时，是政府平衡中央和地方势力的一种做法。从最初设立看，起到了加强中央对地方控制的作用，十镇节度使，85%兵力，全在边疆，可见唐王朝对边疆的重视。\n\n中央军 9w，藩镇兵力 49w\n\n\n\n\n\n藩镇节度使\n治所\n兵力\n\n\n\n\n平卢\n营州-今辽宁朝阳市\n37500\n\n\n范阳\n幽州-今北京\n91400\n\n\n河东\n太原\n55000\n\n\n朔方\n灵州-今宁夏吴忠市\n64700\n\n\n河西\n凉州-今甘肃武威市\n73000\n\n\n陇右\n鄯州-今青海海东市乐都区\n75000\n\n\n剑南\n益州-今成都\n30900\n\n\n北亭\n北庭都护府\n20000\n\n\n安西\n龟兹城-今新疆阿克苏地区库车县\n24000\n\n\n剑南\n广州\n15400\n\n\n合计\n\n486900 约等于 49w\n\n\n\n既然支撑府兵制的生产关系已经不存在，那么只有改变兵制了，不是有很多人没了土地，失了生计吗？国家招募成为职业军人，专门为国家打仗，可以吗？如果大唐的边疆没那么广，如果大唐周边的强敌没那么多，这是个好办法，如果只看募兵代替府兵后唐军的战斗力，似乎还有提升，毕竟，军人职业化了嘛。\n但是，大唐的疆域太大了，需要防御的边疆，需要面对的强敌太多了，于是，大唐派往镇守边疆的常规部队常常会遇上仅靠自己应付不来的情况，这时候怎么办？常规方法当然是找中央，找朝廷要援兵，这些兵来自朝廷，朝廷理应负责到底，遇到麻烦应该朝廷全权调度，但是，在交通、通讯等方面如此落后的古代，如果将军队的一切事物都交于中央管理，其效率可想而知，打仗哪里等得及，于是，兵权开始下放。**这里说的兵权不是领兵权，而是招兵权。**为了应对复杂的边境战事，当地的守军将领（后来成为节度使）开始根据实际情况需要自行招兵。\n\n当时构成税基主体的自耕农已经纷纷成为失地流民，世家大族们想方设法少交税不交税，长安的皇帝，其实也不富裕。\n\n于是，魔鬼一点点被释放，中央先是命令节度使在边界驻军处组织屯田，先保证将士的吃饭问题，这倒是很合理，但是这样一来，一个悖论就来了：如果粮食有余，可以换钱，节度使手上就有了一定的财权，如果粮食不足，节度使就会向中央要其他赚钱手段，无论怎么样节度使都会有一定的财务权。中央逐渐放开了盐税，铁税，其他税务也被逐渐从中央下放到地方，地方愈实而中央逾虚，当独立的募兵权和征税权都到了节度使手里，这些节度使实际上就已经是割据一方的土皇帝了。演变到最后，给钱不足，天不怕地不怕的募兵们不但敢杀节度使，也敢杀皇帝。\n最后大唐已经完全信奉武力至上，宦官掌握禁军，各地节度使掌握地方军，军队就是唯一，军队就是一切，大唐变成了一个由丛林法则主宰的帝国。\n天宝危机\n大唐天宝14载（755年），安史之乱爆发，至757年，两京收复在望，唐肃宗已经开始头疼，让他头疼的不是如何尽快平定安史之乱，而是如何安排朔方军的两位主将。\n\n他招来李泌询问：两位主将郭子仪，李光弼已为宰相，若克两京，平四海，则无官以赏，奈何？\n李泌给的对策是，不要用官位奖励功臣，此将导致将帅权重，功高难制。等天下太平后，要用土地和爵位赏赐功臣，这样他们会为自己的子孙而珍惜既得利益，不敢乱来。\n而建议肃宗未听进去，在天下未太平时，就开始防范为大唐续命的有功之臣，不让他们权重，不让他们立下高功。\n\n安史之乱打了8年，实际上与肃宗搞帝王之术有很大的关系，对他而言，打赢战争什么最重要？巩固自己的权威最重要。相州之战，九个节度使联合攻打史思明叛军，兵力占压倒优势，结果惨败，纯粹就是肃宗从中作祟。他害怕诸将拥兵自重，故未在军中设主帅，却命亲信宦官鱼朝恩为观军容宣慰使，到军队牵制各方势力。使诸将畏首畏尾，无法协同。相州之战败了，虽没有统帅，但也要有人担责。郭子仪势头正劲，那对不起就你了。遂将郭子仪解职闲置京师三年多。\n有人说是鱼朝恩构陷，谗言能发挥作用说明皇帝相信，可历史上那些挑拨君臣关系的所谓谗言，说白了都是主子借小人口说出来的心声。\n狡兔死走狗烹\n正因为赋闲，郭子仪则性命无忧。而第一战将李光弼则生命堪忧。在对付统兵将帅方面，代宗比肃宗走得更远，肃宗防范将帅权重，将他们调来调去，但还给他们留后路，以备战时之需，好再为大唐卖命。代宗这里安史叛军已被收拾，于是狡兔死，走狗烹。代宗即位两年内，为大唐续命的功臣相继死去。来瑱($ti\\grave{a}n$)先遭兵谋，后被赐死；仆固怀恩遭猜忌举起反旗，很快病死；李光弼在遭受猜忌后忧惧而死。\n当仆固怀恩被逼反，勾结吐蕃，回纥南下，代宗封郭子仪一堆官职，让他率兵抵御。郭说，招抚使是抵御叛军需要，不敢辞让，但太尉一职绝不能接受，上表请辞，向皇帝表明心迹说：早就想像范蠡（$l\\check{i}$）一样过逍遥日子，但因为寇仇在近，家国未安，臣子之心，不敢宁处，才勉为其难担当重任。一次请辞不准，再次上表辞让，代宗终于同意。\n在《资治通鉴》中落得一个社稷纯臣的评价，也折射出郭子仪周遭险境重重。别人都在玩阴谋，他一把年纪了，却只能装疯卖傻，否则就是身死家亡。于85岁去世时，已熬过7任皇帝，生命的最后20年，与皇帝们持续不断无声之战，也终于埋进了历史。\n赵宋：一个不正的正统王朝\n经常美化赵宋，而实际上也是少数官僚的烈火烹油，十之八九的衣不蔽体。在攫取型制度下，大多数人依然处在温饱线上。重文抑武，给了管家与士大夫阶层更大的空间享受生活，客观上促进了文化艺术的繁荣，不管百姓如何，如果身为百姓，却向往这样的时代，那将是啼笑皆非的。拥有世界最大的常备军，却总是屡战屡败，大宋基本可以等同于大怂。\n纵然历史上任何一个王朝都有被践踏的普通人群，但像宋代这样既没有大国崛起也没有小民尊严，有的只是君臣共治坐地分赃的黑帮政治，从人本主义史观上说，作为普通人实在没什么值得缅怀与惋惜。\n我们而今依旧如宋人般国富民穷，国内是短视频里的假美女和假消息，国外则是合法化后的大麻，把大多数人养起来，让他们过上不能思考，行尸走肉，但越来越上瘾的生活。\n\n美国也变成靠金融吸血全球，靠军工维持对外吸血，靠医疗对内吸血，靠法制维持内部吸血的攫取性制度。底层甚至中层也同药渣，精英推崇绩优主义，让每个人如同上了加速发条的傀儡\n\n开封和临安之所以能聚集百万人口，是因为皇权将数十万统治阶层（宗室，官僚，禁军及其家属）聚集在这。为了满足统治阶层的消费需求，开封和临安犹如巨大的怪兽，源源不断汲取全国人力与财力。\n还我河山莫须有\n\n岳飞是一份高洁的礼物，南宋朝廷承受不起。赵构、秦桧一心媾和。尤其是赵构这个软脚虾、脆皮狗是主要罪人，秦桧是个垫背的跪在岳飞墓前。\n\n在高宗眼里，岳飞有四宗罪\n\n议立太子。高宗其实有过儿子，但在苗刘之变中受惊吓死掉了。而高宗后来又生不了孩子，就过继了两个孩子。岳飞再三催高宗早立太子。文臣还可以建议，武将万万不可说。高宗当时就很不客气的说，这不是卿不可以谈论的事情\n淮西兵变。当时宋朝军队四大战区，淮西军是刘光世的军队，战力最差，朝廷就想把刘光世的军队给裁撤了。一开始想让岳飞领导指挥，和岳飞聊过除了韩世忠张俊不受节制外，所有部队受你节制。但此举收到文官集团强烈抵制，当时岳家军已在四路军队中最大，有84员将领，人马10w，如果再把刘光世的五六万人交给他，就是尾大不掉了。高宗就动摇收回了成命。岳飞恼火撂挑子不干了，跑到庐山自己母亲坟前守坟。他一守坟，手下10w人都休了年假。此种情况下高宗再三给岳飞写信要求其回到本职工作上。他这才销假回来，虽然让岳飞面子是做足了，但使得高宗对岳飞产生了不信任和厌恶，认为是在要挟自己\n十二道金牌。朝廷为了达成宋金和议，要求前线部队都回来，其他都很听话，马上就回来了，岳飞却要12道紧急军令才回，在高宗看来你已经调动不了了。\n不忌讳武人和文人间的交往。朝廷的忌讳，岳飞偏不忌讳，有时候也舞文弄墨，跟文人间书信往来，诗词唱和，很能参与到文人的活动中去。鉴于朝廷对武将的不信任，武将的自保之术呢一般是抹黑自己，例如张俊就做出一副很贪财的样子，韩世忠也大量去收购土地，积累财富，岳飞不怕死又不贪财。\n\n杀了岳飞后，高宗常舒一口气：今兵权归朝廷，朕要易将帅，承命奉行，与差文臣无异。宋朝对官员很宽容，纵观两宋岳飞这种等级被处死的仅此一例。\n坚定迎回二帝是误解\n徽钦俩个王八蛋北狩以后，赵九妹自己先定的迎回二圣的口号，那时飞哥还是大头兵，跟着喊口号怎么了，皇帝都这么喊。\n自从绍兴五年徽宗死了以后，岳飞就再没提过迎回皇帝这种话，因为此时对面金国宣传的也是放回钦宗回来当皇帝，这不是跟敌国呼应么，飞哥在这方面变现很正常，识大体，对钦总这个废物点心的称呼头衔由“圣”改成了“天眷”。\n莫须有\n当时杀岳飞甚至是朝中共识，除了大家简单说的迎回二帝得罪高宗（听众易信），兵权太重（实际原因），可能黄袍加身。皇帝要杀他可以理解，但大臣和将军们也要杀他，甚至是宋金的共识，是天下有钱人的共识，以莫须有，不需要理由，共识都同意。为什么会形成共识呢？因为他干了一件拓跋宏当年做的事，均田也就是土改，在解放了的北方领土上分给了宋朝的，金朝的流民和难民。你在北方土改了，南方呢？再打下去，金就被全部土改了，这还得了。所以杀岳飞是朝中共识。\n直捣黄龙府？\n无论是在与宋高宗的沟通上，还是实际军事部署上，岳飞的重点都是“还于旧都”，“直捣黄龙”是岳飞为振奋军心而提出的口号。\n基于岳家军的超强战力和岳飞卓越的指挥能力，加上两翼友军的倾力配合，且颖昌之战后完颜宗弼基本上也会不战而弃汴梁，故而岳飞恢复故土是可能的，至于之后怎么办，要看宋金的力量对比了或看具体情况了。\n\n若收复东京后下令继续北伐，岳家军冒着被分割包围的风险孤军北上才能达成目标，不管有没有撤军令，岳飞都不会兵行险着，全军为上、见好就收定是他的不二选择。毕竟岳帅从来都是善于思考、讲求实际的，“运用之妙，存乎一心”（《宋史•岳飞传》）便是这位战神用兵风格的最好体现。\n胜利下的风险\n金军在郾城、颖昌两场大战中损失惨重，“女真铁骑满万无敌”的神话被岳家军击得粉碎，但绝对未到“伤筋动骨”的地步。在岳飞班师后不到半年，完颜宗弼即统兵九万再次南下，可见金国并没有大伤元气，其军事力量也基本完好，他们在幽云地区及辽东老家的大量部队还没有调动。\n岳家军连战连胜，但其两翼掩护俱失（议和先撤了），已陷入过于冒进的险境之中，另外兵力不足的问题一直困扰着岳飞，他实际只有8w人，经过郾城、颖昌两次大战和无数小战的消耗，加之还需留下力量驻守新占城池和保护补给线，岳飞能够投入下一步作战的兵力已不足5w。\n作为优秀的军事统帅，岳飞对此是清楚的，故而在拿下永安军（今河南巩义）后就命令各部向自己驻扎的郾城（今河南郾城）和王贵驻守的颖昌(今河南许昌）靠拢，以缩短战线、集中兵力。完颜宗弼也看出了岳家军的命门所在，于是不等岳飞调整完毕，就抢先向郾城、颖昌这两处岳家军后方咽喉部发起反攻。虽然这两仗岳家军经浴血搏杀大获全胜，但对于敌人**“击我之后，断我归路”**的打算，岳飞不会看不出来。\n金军越往北撤，其补给线越短、越有利于大军集结应战。金军采取诱敌深入之法步步后撤，将岳家军吸引到开封以北的大平原上，再以骑兵发动反击，以步兵为主的岳家军极有可能被敌从侧后迂回分割。\n宋军，一旦进入华北平原、远离江淮水运的支持，其补给效率之低下、转运之耗时的劣势就会被成倍放大。\n\n南宋末年宋军“端平入洛”时，本想赶在蒙古军之前占据汴梁，结果一头扎入黄泛区导致后勤系统崩溃，最后因断粮而功亏一篑。\n\n所以，即便没有高宗的撤军令，在兵力不足且孤军深入的情况下，岳飞最理智的做法也应是后撤以集中兵力稳定防线、固守待援，而不是继续冒进。\n义军武装不应高期待\n有人指出，岳家军当时有一大优势，就是黄河南北各路抗金义军的积极配合。如果能够集中义军力量，就可以极大充实岳家军的战力，并从后方袭扰金军，前后夹攻以取中原。但从冷兵器战争史的一般经验来看，对这种类似民兵游击队的义军武装，从来都不可对其给予过高期望。由于缺乏组织引导和纪律约束，义军往往都只有打“顺风仗”的能力。\n其作用也就仅在于牵制金军部分治安力量，**假如岳家军战事不利的消息传来，号称百万的义军武装很快就会作鸟兽散。**而且其动辄几十万的数量，绝对不能当真，百万义军揭竿而起，也不过是宋军在宣传上的造势。即便岳家军继续北上，得到义军武装的支持力度也不会很大，相反岳家军还必须拿出相当的装备和补给来支持义军，否则这些人顷刻间就会走的走、散的散，这反过来又大大加重了岳家军的后勤负担。\n\n宋人一直都有高估北方、特别是幽云一带汉人“故国情怀”的误区。实际上，当地汉人在辽、金百余年以“以汉法因俗而待”的治理下，并不对辽、金怀有什么敌意，对宋也没有“箪食壶浆以迎王师”的期望，“遗民泪尽胡尘里”只是南宋文人们一厢情愿的臆想而已。\n\n士绅堕落邀请异族政权统治\n三穷（皇帝穷，百姓穷，大臣自称穷）问题就是从靖康之变到 49 年 800 年间旧中国政治问题的核心所在，也是中国为何没进入殖民时代的部分原因。王安石变法的核心是四个字：富国强兵。被批判的核心也是四个字：敛财害民。王安石评价走高的背景依然是四个字：天下为公。其变法围绕增加国家政府收入这个核心问题展开，简称『为国』，反对他的人的理由就是『为民』，那么谁是民呢？自然是天下士绅。\n对抗王安石变法\n宋仁宗期间想改变积贫积弱的局面，柔和一点的庆历新政2 年又回到老调重弹失败了，猛点的王安石在神宗的支持下变法，开了一个藏富于君，均贫于民的局面，神宗一下线，变法就遭到反扑。之后几十年靖康之变就来了，亡国了。左也不是，右也不是，尝试都失败了。南宋朱熹谈起北宋的历史教训，回答是：古者刻剥之法本朝皆备，所以有靖康之乱，正是由于盘剥过重。\n北宋亡不亡国，大臣们不关心，但对连番上书批判王安石要求剥夺王安石死后所有待遇，要求废除王安石变法所有内容，绝逼是兴趣盎然的。南宋立国之时，大家关心的仍然不是是否可以北伐抗战复国，还是在追问一个问题，就是陛下你究竟是怎么来看王安石变法的？逼着赵构一定要表态王安石和王安石变法统统都是王八蛋后，这些人才心满意足地支持南宋政权偏安一隅，直至被元朝灭国为止。\n变法三百年后朱元璋放弃唐宋的开放性财政设施，而采取一种保守性和收敛性的体制，其说出宋神宗用王安石小人竞进，天下骚然，此可为戒，其个人认知力对王安石极为反感。清乾隆直接骂王安石是个混蛋，对王安石的风评随着时间线逐步走到臭不可闻的地步。\n随着中国进入近代，戏剧性的事情来了，中华民族陷入危机后，原本那个臭不可闻的王安石，风评直接进入扭转的快车道，从梁启超开始到新中国，直接把王安石变法写入官方教科书中，其形象从一个几乎误国小人形象重塑成为一个救国救民的大改革家形象。\n金融化的萌芽\n文明的进程\n文明的发展需要人口，文化，技术等生产力因素的积累，唐宋从皇帝和贵族统治的结构转变为皇帝与士绅统治的结构，原因就是人口，技术、文化等生产力因素的累积已跨过一道关口。唐宋之前的税收是因人征税，中唐之后转向财产，国家的关注点转去了对经济的掌控程度。从王朝掌握的人口少到王朝掌控的财产越少，离亡国就不远了，这个转变可能是粮食产出的增加。就是粮食产出不仅可以支撑温饱，还可以支撑土地额外的经济性物资产出，进行远距离商贸的需求。文明进步到在人口，粮食，商业三个点之间构成稳定构型。内核从耕者有其田这个能不能活人的问题，进入到了有产者要交税这个均衡性问题上去了\n宋是中国商业社会的顶峰，三冗（冗兵冗官冗费）问题最核心最根本的是冗官，通过细密管理，让商业抓在自己手里。发展出稳固的纸币发行体系，打通流通脉络。\n冗官就要让更多士绅进入成为国家认证统治阶级的一部分，要有收益。最后形成一个藏富于民，独穷国君的局面，到处求和。面对几年一更新，不断膨胀的大臣和背后的士绅群体，力不从心是皇帝朝廷的常态。力量的不平衡是问题的根源。\n财税发展\n神宗政府对铸钱充满热情便是财税扩张的典型表现，在铸钱高峰期，两年所造铜钱数目便超过明 200 余年的总量。宋室南迁后，大部分矿区沦陷金国，铸币锐减，但南宋财政政策并未转向紧缩和内敛，相反，很快便建立一套包括东南会子在内的政权体系，作为铜钱的替代。宋代的会子不是现代意义的货币，而是某种具有流通性质的政府债券。\n大宋是个金融帝国，纸币决定国家兴亡，是利益分配不能贯彻好了才有异族政权入主中国的结果出现。\n宋代以后税收是倒退的，在财产税上几乎只有农业税和在农田计算基础上的财产税，缺了财产商业增值税\n异族政权与士绅合流\n辽金元清这些异族政权，特别是金元清三个政权，拆开看可以都算得上被邀请进来统治中国的政权。辽国的存在218 年那全都是意外，是非常不可思议的事情，辽从后晋手上拿到幽云十六州，但辽他连一个正经国家实际都算不上，是澶渊之盟（大怂打赢了却要给岁币）达成稳定的宋辽对峙后，他才从原来那个部落联邦集合体变成一个真正意义上的国家。他开始用治下的汉族统治的幽燕地区，作为国家政权建设的发动机，推广到原本仅在军事概念上存在的辽国其它地区。是汉族士绅，汉化支撑了辽国进入国家实体的进程。\n汉化才有出路。这就是辽国全部的经验总结。后来金国建立，并且占领中原。珠玉在前，有样学样，继续学辽国汉化。元朝建立，继续汉化，一方面不汉化他就存在不下去。\n异族政权纷纷选择汉化，那么什么是汉化，就是利益分配。异族政权和汉族士绅的利益分配关系，达成一种分赃式的利益平衡。与其说是税收，不如说是朝廷在收保护费。\n短命蒙元\n忽必烈占 1/3，元顺帝占1/3，其它 9 帝占1/3。\n有一个人燕铁木尔，历经世祖、成宗、武宗、仁宗、英宗、泰定帝、天顺帝、文宗、明宗、宁宗、惠宗（顺帝）11 帝，享年 48 岁。\n成吉思汗的独一性\n铁木真出现之前，游牧民族没出现蒙古帝国这般逆天的存在。是匈奴人不是全民皆兵么？是柔然人不是来去如风么？是突厥人不懂以战养战？是回鹘、契丹的战马脚力不够强，跑不到淮河以南或中亚以西？为何成吉思汗之前没人开拓如此宽广的疆域呢？草原这片江湖的政治生态是这样的，水草丰美时大家各自出去放牧，等到水草没有了，就集中到一起报团过冬，在报团的日子里大家交流一下一年的感受，顺便规划一下明年的任务。年复一年，在这帮报团的人中间总会出现一位首领。于是以这位首领为核心的部落就诞生了。部落人数可多可少，多则上万，少则数十。部落和部落之间，因抢夺牧草和其他资源，免不了发生冲突，冲突出一个特别能打的部落，其它部落便会认其为草原共主，但共主并不等于至尊无上的皇帝，他并不能支配草原的一切，而仅是本部落的资源而已。另外，其他部落对其义务有限，类似武林人士对盟主的感觉。因为再厉害撑死就是一个部落的当量，这就决定了草原上的共主必然是快起快落的。部落制的缺点非常明显，就是太松散，没有足够向心力，这种强势部落带着随从部落的模式，破坏力和影响力终究有限，很难持续且高强度的对外输出战力，以犯边和骚扰为主。汉唐就常利用拉拢一派打击一派的方式使得草原尽可能处于孱弱的非统一状态，从而降低军事威胁。霍去病为啥能开全图直捣匈奴腹地？李靖为何能举重若轻干翻突厥？草原带路党功不可没。\n千户制\n正如中原大地出了一个秦始皇，草原也等来了他的千古一帝，铁木真。他的过人之处不局限于军事领域，他实行『千户制』重塑了草原政治生态，千户制，顾名思义，以千人为单位把人口进行编队，其不仅是战时单位，还是行政单位，每个千户有固定的活动范围，不能随意移动出圈，千户长在范围内有权指定每个牧民的具体放牧场所和要求他们旅行差派徭役。战时，千户长要负责带领户内 15-70 岁男子全部出征。最关键的是，千户长由成吉思汗亲自指派。相当于让草原从部落制跳过了分封制，直接进化到了郡县制。春秋战国 800 年的活，铁木真谈笑间一个人就干完了。过大的部落瞬间被肢解为数个部落，降低了抢夺造反的几率，例如万户挂一个虚职，下面捏实权的千户长都是我指派的，你怎么和我斗。原来零散的小部落太过分散，固定活动区域，管理难度降低了好几个数量级。战败的部落奴隶，铁木真允许以千户制的方式重建，原本奴隶打起仗积极性不高，但现在相当于在新政下复国了，积极性和忠诚度都大大增加了。从制度上杜绝了中原政权大规模招募草原带路党或者直接扶持草原代理人的可能，都打散成千户了，不可能成建制一批一批去玩离间。成吉思汗通过千户制将草原的一切力量都捏在自己手里，汗庭中央集权大功告成，20 万蒙古铁骑似一人般如臂使指，这绝不是此前的匈奴和突厥可比的。\n但千户制也有弊端，和秦有点像。原来战争年代尚有通过军功晋升的通道，平定天下后，没有了怎么办？放草原上就是原来还可以通过欺负其他部落来获取不定期的资源红利，现在千户制把各自的规模和牧所都定死了，上哪去弄新的战利品？铁木真的答案是，勇士们，看看周围，全是一帮菜鸡，地狭人稀的西夏，暮气沉沉的金，再往南听说还有一个只知研究儒家理学的宋，往西是连皇位都被外人夺了的西辽，再往西是建国不久，军队都是雇佣过来的花剌子模，要怎么做，还需要教？\n分裂\n为何蒙古帝国又如此快消亡了？大蒙古帝国（到蒙哥死四大汗国独立为止）实际只存在 50 多年，时间并不算长。原因当然很多，主要原因还是成吉思汗一走，蒙古人就不太能维持中央集权的政治生态了。一项大的改革，尤其涉及国本，涉及体制的改革，光靠一代君王是完不成的，需要好几代人的坚持才能形成习惯。跟秦一样，立郡县制，始皇帝一死，天下一乱，秦二世就 hold 不住了。基于习惯，大家很自然去复辟分封制，项羽不就只想做一个西楚霸王嘛。到武帝之前实际用的也是半分封半郡县，直到平定七国之乱，推恩令才算把郡县制强行拉回来。成吉思汗后，没人的威望可以高到在如此广袤的疆域内继续实行中央集权。大家都差不多，谁打仗都不差，谁，都是黄金家族的后代，更何况忽必烈把汗位继承规则由推举改成了世袭。蒙古人就更不可能买这个账了，帝国的分裂就是必然的事情。从 17 世纪开始，当火器成为战争的主角，军事科技的进步，让草原骑兵失去了对他国的碾压优势，使得无法再出现第二个蒙古。本来你的宗教，经济，文化和社会制度先进性就不如农耕文明，草原政权自然又回到年年犯边的但打了就跑的老路上。\n蒙元算中国王朝么\n这可以从几个角度来解读：中国是定义为地理概念还是文化族群？\n\n如果是地理概念，那么日本人占领中国，建立的王朝是不是中国\n接受华夏汉文明，那么汪伪和伪满算不算中国人的政权，其头上有日本人当太上皇。用趋势当结果，可以说元已经中国化。\n蒙古人自己的认知，蒙古文的历史中没有中国这个词，一直叫自己蒙古国。大元大蒙古国，大元是什么词，元也是大的意思，大大蒙古国，是个定语，都不是国号。外蒙当前一直独立存在，争这个叙事权的话，我们就不占优，他们会认为他们占领了中国，只是奴役（殖民）了这片土地一段时间。\n\n蒙古战力强么\n其战术只对东亚古典集权帝国才有效，13 世纪，西欧战斗力虽然不强，但防御 buff点满。 蒙古西征中被打败的匈牙利人和波兰人只是一群乌合之众，军队中都是些临时凑起来的农民，大部分是轻步兵，都没什么弩兵。\n1287 年平安夜，蒙古直扑波兰首都，波兰人吸取之前的教训把木头城堡换成石头的，配置了弩炮，让蒙古人损失惨重。后期金帐汗国基本都败了，蒙古人的战法完全不适应欧洲城堡。按照中世纪德国的标准，蒙古人继续西进也是费，每个城堡都是私兵，攻打一个巨石城堡的战利品和战损消耗完全不成正比。法国能动员的骑兵比东欧的盲流军队总数都多。\n消除藩镇皇帝一下线就亡国\n封建制比中央+郡县更能维持强军力，藩镇化更能抵抗外敌入侵，其本质上是全面战争和局部战争的区别。华夏两次沦陷更是离不开宋明都解决了藩镇化，集权体制下的将领都是打工仔。\n西欧每个领主没有绝对实力，那苟住比什么都重要，防御力buff拉满，封建都是自己的兵，保护自己资源和头衔，跟你丫战。\n朱明王朝\n明朝建立的意义\n明朝的建立让汉族在1279到1912之间有个难得的空窗期，在这600年里喘一口气，不至于在异族压迫下窒息。唐的后继者是孱弱的两宋，崇文抑武为方针带来的后果是连基本盘都保不住，更不用提靖康之耻和崖山沦陷。\n唐宋元明清，若少了明朝，那么汉人在上一次统治全国的稳定期，是1000多年前的唐玄宗时期，若无明朝重塑法统，“汉人”或许会成为类似“罗马人”的历史名词。\n\n\n唐以后关中残破不堪，被金元统治近300年。\n\n\n往北半个陕甘宁被西夏统治到明朝收复，至少脱离汉族统治300多年\n\n\n整个大西南包括四川贵州土司遍地\n\n\n云南从六诏到大理，再到明初，至少600多年，当地百姓已经不知道汉字\n\n\n燕云十六州丢失450多年\n\n\n淮河自北宋灭亡近250年沦落异族\n\n\n南宋旧城被元统治也有90多年。\n\n\n如没有明朝，汉人经历持续600年的异族统治后民族意识是否能很好保留？难说。\n土木之变的连锁历史\n历史上蒙古民族是由两个基本部分组成的。古代两分为“草原百姓”和“林中百姓”。瓦剌简单来说是指西部蒙古族，清朝称漠西蒙古。“瓦剌”的意思是“森林之民”或“邻近者”。\n北京保卫战与夺门之变\n调兵备战\n从全国各地调兵勤王，含两京河南的预备役，沿海备倭军，漕运运粮军。三类都不算精锐，但也凑了22万兵员。\n当时京师军队只有1/10配备武器，盔甲。于谦又下令将南京储存武器的2/3共计126w件调入北京，还派人去土木堡战场收集明军遗弃的头盔9000顶，甲5000件，火枪1.1w杆，火铳2w只，火箭44w枚，火炮800门，装备守卫北京的明军。\n兵马未动粮草先行，北京一下子多出这么多增援部队，必须提前解决粮食问题。由于大运河的运输，通州是京城粮草主要囤积地，仓米数百万石，可充京军一岁饷。这么多粮食，不动员十几万人根本搬不回来。打北京保卫战确实也用不了这么多粮食，但蒙古骑兵从来都是就食当地，运不回来也要毁掉。除了付费请老百姓运粮，令所有来京增援部队路过通州时，自行到通州取粮，超额多带粮食到北京的，还有赏钱。大军从通州一过，顺手就把通州的粮食搬空了。\n土木惨败后，瓦剌并未乘胜直捣京师，而是几次在宣府，大同等边镇勒索财物，使朝廷得到1个月的喘息时间。\n在北京保卫战中，于谦特别重视谍报工作，英宗刚随也先大营走远，于谦就得到线报，马上下令前线大炮轰击，不必投鼠忌器。主动出击，不向也先示弱，几场城门伏击战打消了也先速胜梦，天寒地冻，各地亲王大军纷纷开拔，也先遂拔营北遁，北京城保住了。\n储位拉锯\n得知英宗被俘后，孙太后命朱祁钰监国，一天后又想立两岁的朱见深为太子。她的如意算盘是英宗若能脱险归来，皇位自然还是自己儿子的，若有万一皇位也只能是她孙子的。避免朱祁钰生母吴氏母以子贵。但土木之变后文官集团爆发出清洗内廷势力（宦官和锦衣卫）的政治诉求与潮流，局势发展已超出孙太后的控制。\n宣宗一生只有2个儿子，但由于出身，朱祁钰母子在宫外生活，在明朝藩王不得参与朝政。如果没有土木之变，软弱的朱祁钰母子肯定可以平静度过一生。事情的发展却将其推到了前台。此时朱祁钰年方22岁，正春秋鼎盛，太后扶他上马也有条件，景帝只在特殊情况下代任其位，不得改变皇统世系，死后仍由朱见深继承。\n后朱祁钰改易太子，将朱祁镇的儿子换成自己的儿子，于谦勉强签字。改换太子后，朱祁钰笼络朝臣，给官员发双倍薪水，于谦又推辞不受。明代有人指责于谦不谏言景泰帝易储之事，王世贞指出大家想多了，这是皇帝的家室，汉高帝想废太子刘盈改立刘如意，张良都不敢开口直谏，凭什么认为于谦就能说服景泰帝？\n夺门之变\n夺门之变实质是孙太后，朱祁镇与朱祁钰的政治斗争，于谦执掌兵部总督十团营，阻止发起的人不难，难的是如何善后。朱祁钰当时病危，其即位的合法性来自孙太后的敕书，而不是其父宣宗。在病危之际，孙太后复立朱祁镇当然也合法，要彻底否定这个合法性，只有废黜孙太后，将谋逆的朱祁镇废为庶人再赐死，如何面对未来登基的朱见深，此时朱祁钰病危没有子嗣（改立的太子早亡），如果于谦当日有所行动，他就不再是于谦，而是王莽，曹操，司马昭。\n\n南宫复辟当日凌晨，景泰帝听闻朝堂钟鼓大作，大惊，问左右曰：是于谦吗？左右告之，是上皇复辟了。病榻上的朱祁钰知道自己政治生命了结了，眼神空洞，嘴中无奈念叨：哥哥做，好，好。\n\n于谦用人，只看才能功绩，不看出身，得罪了不少大臣勋贵。南宫复辟同时，于谦被当场逮捕。朱祁镇说于谦可是有功之人，他知道若非于谦主持战局，击退也先，自己怎么可能回到北京呢？此时逆臣走到朱祁镇面前说：不杀于谦，今日之事无名。\n\n少年苦读时，于谦就写下著名的《石灰吟》，刚直无畏性格已经罄露。\n\n抄家官兵冲进于谦宅邸，只见正室被封得严严实实，里面珍藏的是从宣宗开始开始几位皇帝赐他的东西，对于于谦的死，天下无不冤之。\n\n于少保和岳武穆都是胸怀天下之人，是民族脊梁、国家之魂，可惜都低估了周遭的恶意。\n\n土木堡后的瓦剌与鞑靼\n瓦剌首领也先 将英宗送还北京，结束了与明朝的战争。后来，在北京城的夺门之变发生之前，瓦剌统治集团内部倒是率先爆发了一系列血腥的内讧。\n也先虽当时声震大漠南北，名义上他也只是蒙古汗廷内的“太师”，比起“黄金家族”的「岱总汗」(即太宗汗）– 脱脱不花 仍矮一头。也先无法将大汗变成自己的傀儡，因为他们分营而治，天高皇帝远。但权臣与英主的冲突，如箭在弦，面临摊牌。\n瓦剌为了控制大汗，早将也先的姐姐嫁给大汗，充当线人。其子理当继承汗位，不甘充当傀儡的脱脱不花却不买账，决心立另一个妻子所生的儿子为太子，无可调和。景泰二年，脱脱不花率先发难，也先初战不力，但不久用“离间计”瓦解了对方军队，最后杀死了这位大汗。也先下令大杀“黄金家族”后人，忽必烈直系后裔在这场劫难里几乎被斩尽杀绝。\n盛极而衰\n也先自立「大元田盛大可汗」，用北元大汗脱古帖木儿年号，表露出继承元朝大统的意思，以非“黄金家族”身份窃据蒙古大汗之位，做到这一点的唯有也先一人。可惜好景不长，不到一年时间，也先兵败身死，不是只有“黄金家族”不能称汗的天命，而是也先避不开创业者的顽疾，做到共患难，做不到共富贵。\n也先对草原的统治，能依靠的只是瓦剌的军事集团，里面的阿喇知院，是其得力助手。也先称汗后，太师之位空出来了，但也先来了个内举不避亲，把位子给了自己儿子。且为了削弱阿喇的势力，也先派人暗杀阿喇两个儿子，如此一来，其不反也得反了。结局是也先和阿喇先后都被杀，鞑靼各部拥立脱脱不花幼子为汗，瓦剌部众退居西北旧巢。\n黄金家族再次定鼎草原\n瓦剌因内讧而衰，鞑靼内部也四分五裂，25年换了三位大汗。随着1479年满都古勒汗的去世，忽必烈嫡系只剩一个大约5岁的孩童，巴图蒙克。满都古勒汗遗孀满都海夫人登上历史舞台，身兼母亲，妻子，辅臣三项重任，成为蒙古族历史上著名的巾帼英雄。巴图蒙克号称“达延汗”，也就是“大元汗”，后来再次统一了草原，异姓领主专权的局面也被扭转不复存在，不安定因素全部解决后，开始分封诸子，今日内蒙古行政区域图，仍看到达延汗分封的痕迹。\n达延汗的子孙们开始了“画地住牧”的生活，这有利于减少鞑靼内部冲突，但游牧经济很快遇到它的瓶颈，畜群增长，要求增补饲料牧地，剩余产品也需要找到渠道交换“绸缎绢布”乃至“锅釜针线”等生活用品。\n当时蒙古地区最有势力的首领是土默特部的阿勒坦（又音译为俺答，金子的意思），第一个问题通过向西武力扩张解决，征讨瓦剌，迫使其进一步西迁至阿尔泰山一带，“西海”成为土默特的领地。第二个问题，通过与中原贸易来解决，在隆庆年间，开市和通贡终于实现（前面嘉靖年间一直互打，不同意开市）。随着互市的开展，许多喀尔喀部乃至瓦剌领主也派遣商队以漠南各地领主名义到马市，民市，月市进行贸易。土默特部趁机做生意，抽贸易税或物资高价转售，从中取利。俺答的营帐地库库和屯，逐渐成为漠南蒙古手工业和商业中心，这座蒙古语里的“青色之城”，就是呼和浩特。\n瓦剌的终局\n与俺答求贡类似，瓦剌因为接近中原市场较困难，对阿姆河与锡尔河间的农区市场需求就很迫切，经常袭扰伊犁河谷。瓦剌各部在达延汗攻击下败多胜少，步步西退。为了结盟，在16世纪50年代，公推「和硕特部」首领为汗，再经过长期演变，瓦剌各部归并为准格尔，和硕特，土尔扈特，杜尔伯特四大部。\n各部的领袖领地有限的矛盾无法调和，在距离也先时代过去200年后，又开始组织大反攻，企图恢复旧有荣光，1628年，土尔扈特部占领乌拉尔河，伏尔加河流域，1637年，和硕特部入主青海西藏地区。但在东戈壁地区遇到了清朝大炮，在叶尼塞河遇到了莫斯科连发枪，13世纪遭遇18世纪，不再是势均力敌，最后一次蒙古帝国在上升的时候倾覆了，因为它是过时的事物了。\n明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么\n明和北宋当时完全是两码事，北宋的覆灭方式和历朝历代相比，都是相当炸裂的。类比放在明朝也是朱祁镇留学之后明朝打输北京保卫战才对味。靖康发生距离宋朝建立不过160余年，这个时间节点放在明朝，道长还在忙着和大臣讨论亲爹的事，放到清朝才是嘉庆九年，太上皇清纯帝刚去世五年不到，所以北宋结束时还算个身体强健的中年人，被流氓来了一闷棍，脑震荡在床上躺着不能动，虽身体没以前那么好了，但再勉强活几年还是没问题的，至于明朝到后来展现出来的情况和历朝土地兼并到了不可调和的状态是一样的。大一统封建王朝和西方殖民主义那套不同，建立后的主要经历不是对外扩张和掠夺，而是地主阶级在国家内部去压榨农民。\n\n天之道，损有余而补不足；人之道，损不足而奉有余。\n\n每个朝代运行一段时间后，都会发现少部分人太有余而大部分人太不足，这个时候若统治者遵循天道，那就要去损有余而补不足，从而让社会达到一个相对平衡的状态，如果继续遵循人道，问题就积累走到over的地步。这个考验的并不是想怎么选，而是你还有没有能力选。就像大明最后，老百姓都凄风苦雨逼上绝路，国库也没钱，军饷都发不出，但以私产输助官饷的建议遭到文武百官的强烈抵制，提建议的官员被打入大牢，崇祯也被这么激烈的场面吓的断了这个念想，不了了之。既然不能遵循天道，那自然就有别人来&quot;替天行道&quot;了。\n官僚代表地主团体，通过朝廷这个架子去吸收百姓的赋税，等收不上来的时候就需开始自救，打击官僚勋贵，就是看地主阶级能不能有人愿意吐点东西出来。等这些人没东西往外拿了，新一批轮回就开始了。明朝把这条路已经走完了，属于一个老人器官衰竭浑身上下已经到了什么都不可以正常维持的状态。早走晚走就是一两天的事，器官衰竭，大脑再怎么下指令，其它的器官也干不动了。所以朱由检跑哪里都一样。南明也属于傀儡，因为南方那些反清的人互相也看不顺眼，精力都放在内讧上，所以南明也没撑多久。明朝迁不迁根本不重要。\n辫子大清\n中国在世界上的地位，由盛转衰，由先进转化为落后，是在清代这个历史时期中发生的，甚至走到了亡国灭种的边缘。在改变民族命运时众人不遗余力地揭露清政权的腐败和黑暗，对于全面评价容易有偏颇。从历史唯物主义角度，清也做了些好事。例如把中国许多兄弟民族联在一起，把中国的版图定了下来。为了要长期统治，减低了田赋，继而发展了人口。文化上融入汉文化，促进了各民族中国文化的发展。\n对历史首先是不要割断历史，要看到新的东西总是从母胎里生长出来的。其次，我们的历史遗产中有许多好东西，很多民族财富要好好发掘，取其精华，弃其糟粕。再次，一定要发扬历史传承下来的优良传统。在各种宝贵传统中，最重要的是革命的传统。如果认为传统文化什么都好，一切照搬，就会走向复古主义；如果认为什么都不好，全盘否定，就会走向民族虚无主义。不但要批判地继承我们的传统文化，还要吸收外国的优秀文化，吸收外国的东西要加以溶化，而不是把中国的东西和外国的东西焊接在一起。\n历史上的统治阶级中也有一些比较进步的人物，有的帝王也做过促进历史发展的事情，尽管他们对人民的同情是有局限性的，但是那时的人民对这些人还是歌颂的，但也要做实事求是的评价，例如俄国彼得大帝和康熙是同时代的人，因为俄国地处欧洲，手工业比较发达，他汲取了西欧的经验，发展了工商业。中国当时封建经济的统治比较稳固，工商业不发达，康熙只致力于发展封建文化。\n清纯帝被儿子恶心\n原本在庙号体系中，有功者称组，有德者称宗，不是所有皇帝都能有庙号，如两汉四百多年28个皇帝只有7个有庙号。西汉太祖高帝，太宗文帝，世宗武帝，中宗宣帝。“太高中世”都是顶级字眼，都不是普通君主能拿到的。庙号原不能当谥号来用，谥号字多，夸的骂的好的惨的什么形容都有，包罗万象，存在的目的就是为了评价君主。而庙号是没有评价功能的，原本就是给那些有代表性杰出贡献的人才能用的，只不过唐代之后，谥号注水严重，几乎除了亡国之君都是好谥号，已经起不到评价君主的功能了。这会儿庙号也是严重超发，人手一个，就导致了庙号反而起到了评价君主好坏的作用。\n判断的方法也不是让你看字，而是看同样的庙号上一个使用者是什么德性，也就是所谓的判例法。六味地黄丸唐中宗使中宗不爱有人用了，被老妈收拾，被老婆绿，最后据说被女儿毒死，瞬间贬值，再没人用过，都觉得晦气。宋朝的徽钦度理持有者一个赛一个拉胯，有爷俩组团出国访问回不来的，有去世后脑袋被做法器的，有智商低下荒淫无道亡国南宋的，他们悲催的遭遇也让这些庙号全都是一次性使用。后世明清帝王用庙号就可看出来君主本身有无问题。\n明英宗听起来挺好，但上一位元英宗死在南坡之变，只不过他平安跑回来了不然得给他安个徽钦都可以。历史上的高宗除了十全老人，再上一位就是宋高宗完颜构，再前面的重量级唐高宗虽开疆拓土但有治家不严的形象。大宋火种金国忠臣赵构这形象太突出了，不仅杀了岳飞还对金国称臣，总被金国人骂哭，让高宗名声扫地。\n嘉庆这么搞也是因为父子关系着实一般，乾隆与赵构一样都做过太上皇，禅让后对儿子是指手画脚，不仅让他给早就死去的哥哥下跪行礼，对其能力也是各种质疑，总觉得这个接班人没选好，还向天公开许愿，如果这个儿子没选好就让老天爷早点取其性命收回去，再换一个上来。本来乾隆开疆拓土假谦虚想要个祖字的，可儿子偏偏装糊涂就给个宗，还扔了一个高宗上去，且乾隆本人生前偏偏最看不起宋高宗，也算是唯一可以抱负老爹的机会了。\n晚清塑料姐妹花\n两宫皇太后，慈禧母以子贵，但和慈安相比始终还是有嫡庶之别，慈禧也心知肚明。\n辛酉政变\n为防止辅政八大臣权力过大，咸丰临终前将自己两枚私章：御赏，同道堂 分给慈安和皇子。特别规定，凡是皇帝谕旨，起首要盖&quot;御赏&quot;，结尾盖“同道堂”，方可生效。皇帝的决策没有慈安的批准就不能生效，而当时皇子载淳只6岁，故印章就落入慈禧手中。安排是完善的，两宫地位虽然崇高，但她们充其量是拥有了否决权，但议程权力掌握在八大臣手中。八大臣也认为，两宫不应过问谕旨，更不能改，否则就是母鸡报晓。但两宫不会妥协，挡在她们前面的，只有一道“后宫不得干政”的祖宗家法。八大臣也不退了，在朝堂上纠党忿争，声震殿陛，直接把小皇帝吓尿了，尿了慈安一身。此后恭亲王坚定支持两宫太后，发动辛酉政变，将八大臣一网打尽。\n抢儿子的矛盾\n两宫太后垂帘的很长一段时间内，并没有爆发宫廷斗争，慈安在世时，慈禧深知自己妃子出身，与正宫娘娘慈安不能相提并论，事事恭谨。20年内，二人只在三件事上闹出公开化的矛盾。\n\n\n第一件事是慈禧宠爱的太监安德海案，杀他的上谕由慈安签发，可能是对慈禧专断已久的不满，借恭亲王和丁宝桢的势头，给慈禧当头一棒。\n\n\n第二件事是同治帝即位时很小，和温柔的慈安比较亲近。与忙于政务，强势精明的慈禧比较疏远，慈禧很不高兴。\n\n\n第三件事是同治皇后人选的问题，他不喜欢亲妈慈禧相中的女子，反而选中慈安相好的阿鲁特氏为皇后，导致慈禧的不满公开化。\n\n\n野史毒害，也仅仅是野史\n光绪六年，慈禧得了重病，卧病在床，慈安垂帘听政，这段时间慈禧很少露面，第二年春，慈安“感寒停饮，偶尔违和”，身体不太舒服，没有引起重视，不料在第二天夜里突然去世，年仅45岁，臣子们听说时还以为是重症卧床的慈禧，感到不可思议。\n还有一些秘史传出，吃了慈禧送的点心而死，说有先帝密诏要慈安监督慈禧，但老实人慈安却将此事告知慈禧，并当着慈禧的面烧掉密诏。写这本秘史书《崇陵传信录》的惲毓鼎 在慈安去世时，连举人都没考中，省城都没去过几回，上哪打听宫城秘史。\n慈安由病到亡，前后不到两天，有清史学者认为，慈安死于心血管病症。慈禧生了重病，听政的负担全部压到性情温和的慈安身上，事无巨细都要她决定，压力陡增。原来慈安只对大事拍板，慈禧长于处理具体事务，按记载言，慈安有选择恐惧症：见大臣，“呐呐如无语者”，“或竟月不决一事”。但慈安轻易不下决策，做的决策天下百姓都称赞，忽一死，故各种谣言风行海内。\n全然放飞\n慈安之死，给慈禧解除了最后一道权力紧箍，垂帘逐步到纱幕拿掉，再到同坐御塌，俨如宋仁宣故事，盖前此所未有也。\n丧权辱国难以理解乎\n近代史清廷腐败无能可能看得大家头晕，生气。大家之所以生气，是潜意识里将满清认作是自己人，哀其不幸，怒其不争。其实只要不把满族中的统治阶级当作自己人思考，一切所为顿时就合理起来了。\n大清不是蠢，就是单纯的坏。中日甲午战争时，日本也还是农业国，日本历史上第一个钢铁厂八幡制铁所，建于 1897 年，正是拿马关条约的赔款才得以兴建，完成工业革命，成为强国。\n甲午战争时，当时西方预测日本将败，毕竟其战争资源极其有限。日本发布《开诚忠告十八省豪杰书》，试图号召汉人反清复明。声称「天与不取，反受其咎，卿等速起，勿为明组所笑」，这一招，真正让慈禧慌了神，害怕了，转而把保住满清自己的权利放在了最重要的位置。起用投降派官员，请洋人介入调停战争。通过外交谈判，慈禧也放下了心，因为她了解到日本的根本目标只是要赔款和土地，并不是要推翻清政府。对大清和慈禧而言，钱财和土地，民族尊严都只是小事，只要能保住权势和地位，一切都可以商量。所以才有量中华之物力，结与国之欢心。反正不是自己的东西，卖起来一点都不心疼。\n历代的教训\n先秦\n商朝因为将过多军队派出去开荒（前提老找诸侯要钱要人去开荒）而忽略了首都的防御，被周部族一举偷家灭国（纣王应该是祭祀觉得平民羌人不行，得拿贵族诸侯来祭祀才有效，而不是『昏弃厥肄祀』，所以被反。当然周武王立国2年就噶了，留下弟弟周公辅政，建洛阳护西安-自己的儿子所在），周王痛定思痛，改换策略，让诸侯出去开拓疆土，在京畿要地周围分封安排自己家人，自己则留守大本营。此做法前期可谓是一帆风顺，然而随着分封越来越多，慢慢便不满足自己的一亩三分地，开始互相征伐，最后连周王室也不放在眼里了。结果诸侯坐大，灭国。\n秦汉\n最终秦国做大做强，统一了天下，看到商周的下场，认为都是诸侯的错，选择另辟蹊径走前无仅有的中央集权郡县制，不分封了哪来诸侯造反。权力掌控在中央，分派流官管理地方，避免地方官吏做大做强。结果流官没有与帝国同存亡的觉悟，一点不忠诚，光速投降，换个主子继续当流官。\n作为流官出身的刘邦，继续吸取秦朝的经验，觉得还是有必要分封诸侯，但诸侯得是自己亲儿子，即便天下大乱，不管谁赢天下还在刘氏手中。可低估了权利带来的欲望，权利过大皇权就受到威胁，权利过小就容易把他们逼向造反，结果就爆发了七王之乱。到了武帝，想想咱还是搞郡县制度，心不齐的问题，让儒家宣传造神，并将矛头一致对外，赫赫战功解决民众和官员的归属感。却没注意有外戚内鬼，这个内鬼就是王莽，篡了孙女婿的位，西汉亡。\n到了东汉，小皇帝不知道该信谁了，在外戚门阀压力下，认为太监没根最不可能造反，可太监掌权后，更不让人省心，借权肆意妄为，天下鸡犬不宁。紧接着爆发了大规模的起义，朝廷掌控不了局面，就将权利下放给地方自行解决。结果叛乱解决了，地方又做大了。皇帝也成了军阀的掌中玩物，各路军阀一顿征战，最终被司马家族偷了家。\n魏晋南北朝隋唐\n\n两晋南北朝包括隋唐，开始探索新道路，可编纂为一本论皇帝的花样死法。之前的禅让皇帝还能善终。\n\n司马家族再次汲取曹魏的教训，认为曹魏灭亡由于皇族太过衰弱，魏文帝大肆打压家族势力，才给了他人偷家机会。于是晋朝就冒天下之大不讳，大肆分封自己家族成员以壮大势力，相当于回到了分封制度，很快报应就来了，八王之乱降低了晋朝的实力，被外族偷家灭国。\n在南北对立局面很久后，隋最终一统天下。再次汲取前面的教训，认为很多朝代灭亡在于世家大族权利过大，威胁到了皇权，于是便决定削除老牌贵族势力，诞生了科举制度。通过选举有能者居之，然而这种做法，大大削弱了老牌贵族的势力。在世家大族的推动下加上隋炀帝的过度消耗所引发的一系列问题，很快民怨沸腾，最终被唐取代。\n唐在逐步落实科举制的同时，走汉的路数，对外军功，随着土地兼并领土大摊子难以激励维系，不转向防守转而对抗进攻，财政上不堪重负，衍生出了一个新的官职，节度使。可没想到边镇军力过强，节度使权利过大，直接造了皇帝的反，叛乱虽被平息，但大唐已开始走下坡路了，最终被朱温篡取政权。天下继续进入混乱时期，五代十国，乱了几十年，直到北宋的建立。\n宋元明\n宋吸取前朝各种教训，首先军队集中到首都既防偷家，又防地方武装力量造反。饯行重文轻武的方针打压武人（武将空有一身力气本领无用武之地），大规模科举挑动平民与世家互斗，再次太监后宫不得干政。做了所有自认为正确的事情，可大肆打压武将造成忽略了外敌，最终被一群游牧民族取代。\n朱明再次汲取前面的经验教训，重点加了防外敌，首都也迁往了边防站，搞个天子守国门，防外族和看家二合一，这次外敌被安排的老老实实的，最终却后院起火被农民起义军一举偷家。\n清\n清朝再次吸取教训处理内在问题和外在隐患，农民起义都没闹出什么幺蛾子，疆域也开拓的够大。于是当时的统治者格外自信，连前来通商的外邦都打发了回去。清在历代中央集权制度下国家治理问题做的最好，除了制度顽疾贪腐注定解决不了，其它问题都克制的不错：争夺储位的问题被解决了，外戚，宦官，藩王都没有，民族问题解决的最好的，民生新增人丁永不加赋，看似海内生平，农业帝国在此情况下则不思进取，没有改革动力，不像工业社会不断要开发新东西，农业经济没什么新产品要做。\n可没想到海那边科技正如火如荼的发展，最终问题就来自海外，鸦片战争被降维打击，被外国联军强开大门。\n我们的经验教训又多了一条：落后就要挨打！真理只在大炮的射程之内！\n从南向北统一难？\n南北之间不是地理差异，也不是骑兵水军的差异。能成功的都是新政权讨伐旧势力，新陈代谢。\n整个中国的历史是以新统旧，南方通常是一个旧政权，跑过去的，华北难守就往淮河长江以南跑（黄河/太行山一突破，一马平川呵呵了）。基于旧政权的底子，哪怕中兴一下，还是不够有生命力，这些人本身就是安逸惯了的才被打到南边的，安逸富足就享受，想他们一下子就洗心革面不现实，如东晋、南宋就没有一个新开创王朝的生机勃勃的样子。\n史观\n国家的内容是什么？国家的内容是人民。知识分子的臭毛病，就是把残酷的历史审美化。天下兴亡，匹夫有责；国家兴亡，匹夫无责。\n汉唐什么盛世？唐巅峰 5000w 人口，版图比现在还大，一直边患用兵。去时里正与裹头，归来头白还戍边。\n汉武帝3600w人口，大军北击匈奴，50w 步兵，10w 骑兵，这里面精兵可能 10w，辅兵10万，后勤兵预计有50万。加上全面的后勤加上武帝用兵 44 年（在位 54 年），几乎全国男人都得参与进去。被俘了失踪了，全家则抄没为奴，打完匈奴，全国人口减半，看汉乐府，当兵要当一辈子，十五从军征，八十始得归，道逢乡里人，家中有阿谁？\n都太残忍了，中国历史的解读特别拿人民不当人的时候当盛世，把自己放在帝王世家的角度解读历史，都把自己带入秦皇汉武，低一点就带入霍去病，其实更多是战死沙场的小兵。\n文治 vs 武功\n文治：商鞅的改革，制度设计才叫文治。能对历史和未来人的思想，社会的结构利益分配做改变，才叫文治。\n武功：开朝代，开疆拓土。\n文治比武功更难，汉文帝宋仁宗只是内政，牛掰的帝王干内政保姆肯定也能干好，只是他们干了更难的事。\n宋的科举，文官制度对当今影响很大，但也亡了天下。不是重整乱局的情况，一般是先有文治，才有武功。汉唐为何那么暴躁，因为国家只有一个上升路，去打仗，牛掰的人都去打仗了。宋朝都去考试了，可是武功就悲剧了。\n民族代码\n为中华民族写过底层代码（搭架子）的人：周公、孔子、老子、商鞅，秦皇汉武，宋祖（科举文治），朱重八（再统北方，但也设计了很多不好的制度），近代就是教员写入马克思主义。\n额外参考\n1.百家号 日落长安，终结大唐盛世的边患、藩镇与宦官 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"去工业化之辨","url":"/%E5%8E%BB%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%96%E4%B9%8B%E8%BE%A8.html","content":"\n货币出口挤压一切\n在金本位时，美元相当于代金券，其它国家想获得美元也很难，美当时还是世界第一工业大国，是贸易顺差国。可自布雷顿森林体系瓦解脱离金本位后，美国就成了彻底的货币输出国，当一个国家能出口货币且货币生产成本低廉（低于绝大部分工业品生产成本，比西班牙开采美洲金银矿低多了），就会倾向于只出口货币，从而挤压其它商品的出口。\n\n如你把货币也当成商品，那么美国仍旧是世界第一出口大国\n\n上一个货币输出国是西班牙，在美洲开采大量金银，成为货币洼地，造成它手工业成本大幅上升，只需要输出金银，就能换回欧洲和中国的商品，断绝了工业革命的希望。\n所谓世界贸易，本身就是在比较优势的基础上，进行交换。通过出口货币换取其他国家的原材料和工业品，这种趋势是制造业回流的最大阻碍，想要扭转这种趋势就是在对抗人性。就像沙特科威特在油气禀赋下只有傻子才玩制造业一样。更何况油气还有竞争对手，世界货币可只有美国能生产，生产成本比油气开采还低廉，恢复制造业，难度可想而知，只剩两条路。\n\n要么通过生产力发展技术提高到一定程度，比如 AI 和无人生产全面落地，以暴利对抗货币出口利润\n要么就大幅提高货币生产成本。才有恢复工业制造的基础\n\n阿美莉卡喊制造业回流，是精英脑子short了吗？No，美国真正的主人哪有意愿重振制造业，他们只是喊一个虚假的口号，把中国推到前面，制造中国人抢了美国工作机会的虚假话题，给红脖子对工业衰退的愤怒一个发泄口而已。让美国去工业化的不是别人，正是美国自己的金融资本，把美国工厂搬到海外，借美元潮汐成为欧日韩的主人。不仅有两个日本，也有两个美国，一个本土美国，一个金融资本控制的海外美国。\n大背景下资本的选择\n在上世纪80 年代，当时美英按着资本家给底层让利，这种状态自然不是资产阶级愿意承担的，冷战进入末期，当时第二大社会主义国家的倒向，使得西方找到一个长期靠谱的新路数：里根撒切尔的新自由主义经济（配合当时西方的长期高通胀高失业，工人运动也到了低潮期）。国内去工业化，国外搞全球化，一举多得，提供利润，打压工人阶级一箭双雕。\n斗争与供需\n\n一直有种说法，西方社会福利是跟苏联竞争的结果或者迫于苏联的压力，这种说法是错误的，一切事务的转化，内因是根本，外因起到推动作用。西方社会的福利，是长期斗争来的，也受供求关系制约。赫鲁晓夫后的苏联反而是放弃革命的反面典型，对自己内部的工人运动也是打的像狗一样。80 年代之前，向全世界输出革命的是中国，80 年代之后或者说 70 年代末期，春天来了。\n一战前生产力增长遭遇瓶颈，出现劳动力过剩，但一战后特别是二战后，生产力再度爆发增长，美欧对高素质劳动力的需求超过了供给，都遇到了高素质劳动力不足的问题。日韩有高素质劳动力但还满足不了需求，东南亚南亚非洲要么素质太低（识字率低或文化太懒），要么战乱频繁，要么政府效率低，所以整体上工人议价能力提高。把产业都搬国外？抱歉，日韩只能接一部分，当时还有东西方冷战的压力，最理智的选择是，提高本国的福利待遇，这样工人能给各阶层生产足够的产品，分给工人的比例提高了，上层拿到手里的财富也足够过奢侈生活。\n在上世纪80 年代苏联尚没解体，但社会主义阵营已开始衰退，里根撒切尔开始砍社会福利了，跟中国的开放也有一定的关系（大量的高素质劳动力潜力）。他们搞的新自由主义经济实际上是靠着透支未来做成的，超发国债寅吃卯粮（里根上台国债 9000亿，卸任下台2.6 万亿，美从债权国转为借债国），自然能做到两面光。本来这种玩法，长久不了，到了 90 年代就要出问题，结果苏联轰然倒塌（苏的倒台核心是自己背叛了自己的理想），吃了一波大饱，让他们错误的认为这是一场正确的道路，甚至还喊出了文明终结的口号。\n没有了外部压力，新自由主义 $\\longrightarrow$ 金融垄断资本主义，它们可不关心什么地区和民族发展，只在乎赚取时间的速度，带来的内部问题和撕裂终会带来革命或危机。\n历史的回旋镖\n可这条国内去工业化的路，也达成了军工凋敝，自我兵解。像北宋一样，将压迫的屠刀朝向支撑自己力量阶级的时候，最终是劳资内患得到解决，但会被外敌攻陷，可这条路想回头都难。\n中国的吸星大法\n除了世界货币带来的产业优势变小，更重要的是中国崛起导致美国去工业化。23 年全世界制造业增加值 15.6 万亿美元，中国 4.68（30%），美国 2.8（17%），假设中国不存在，那么增加值 10.92 万亿，美国占比 25.6%，90 年后其巅峰占比也才 25%左右（1950 年时是真强，约占全球40%），也就是说若没有中国，美国其实并未去工业化，美国去工业化是站在中国的角度看的。\n\n一般来说，制造业门类可以分为 5 个板块，目前的美国只剩下后两类高端制造业，且还保留着很强的实力，但前三类的中低端制造业已经基本消失，也就是大家说的『空心化』\n\n纺织、皮革等基本消费品的制造\n塑料、食品等加工业\n石油、木材等资源加工产业\n汽车、飞机等中高端制造\n芯片、生物制药等高科技制造\n\n\n\n为何中国崛起导致？原因在于中国实在太大了，在以往的工业国中，美国就是体量人口最大的国家，88 年日本人口是美国一半，现在是其三分之一，此种情况下就算美国产业向其它国家转移也问题不大，因为这些国家体量有限，所以吃不下多少产业。中小型经济体在获得高端产业后，必须放手中低端产业。这样从比重看美国还会是世界最大工业国。但中国完全不是这样，人口是美国的 4 倍，01 年中国入世是历史上第一次出现美国向一个体量远大于他的国家转移产业，所以才出现美国被吸干的这种情况。美国体量若是一只羊，之前的都是些兔子，而中国是小马来吸羊奶，马长大了羊自然被边缘化了。\n在中国巨大的的工业化趋势下，去工业化的国家老牌工业国无一幸免，都在急剧下滑。美国由 25.47%降到 15.5%，日本由 18.8%下滑到 5.1%，德国由 7.77%下滑到 4.75%，法国由 3.67%下滑到 1.66%。美国的下滑幅度是最小的。现今的工业格局是在中国工业极速狂飙下带来的，除去中国都在去工业化。\n哪怕某一天人民币国际化了，升值会导致消费能力大增，工业上限远大于美国，加之对产业转移的管控+机器人世代的来临，未来同量级的中国去工业化恐难上演。\n个体的追求\n去工业化往往不全是国家的选择，还是个体的选择。美国人在上个世纪80年代就形成过中产阶级的高覆盖比例，这些中产中的不少人，就是产业工人而来，但是到了他们的下一代，这群孩子不再愿意进工厂。因为他们父母花钱让他们受教育的原因，就是让他不用再进厂赚钱，所以他们宁可当健身教练也不会进厂。美国产业工人工资高，是社会治理抗争的结果，一方面不愿意干的人确实太多了。\n工业的核心是利润空间，直接服务人能获得的收益显然要高于服务机械，当聘用人工成本影响利润空间时，工厂就会主动搬走。\n现在科技服务业也是如此，在新兴高科技公司中，知识产权确权体系才是最重要的生产环节，知识产权的确权往往会极大程度激发高级工人的积极性，高科技产业如此令人着迷的原因就是因为个人因素占比更大，工人的稀缺性更高，雇主也愿意为了高额汇报付出更大的代价。这个阶段的工人们就有机会跨越阶级，但一旦过了知识产权的确权风口，产业结构发生改变，新晋的工人又会承接了打灰的工作。\n当农业化社会彻底进入工业化之后，工人就替代了农民的位置，所有人都在等着压榨中低端制造业工人的价值吃饭。这种社会分层的事情，第一代中产中的聪明人心知肚明，他们不想让自己的孩子变成代价，所以会主动培养自己的孩子，脱离低端制造。\n工业化的厚黑社会学规则\n世界任何一个地域想保持工业化，且不断往工厂输送廉价劳动力，都只有5个办法\n\n让一部分潜在年轻人的父母处于贫困线左右，保持工人及其家庭的饥饿感\n引进移民，贫困国家来的移民多受过苦难，对这些人来说，最重要的是吃饭，而不是工作本身\n压低整体教育水平，对教育进行筛选分流，让部分年轻人无法接受高等教育，跳不出循环并且构建信息茧房，让打工人只能内部比价，双层夹击下无法脱离内部工业循环\n降低社会福利期许，对产业工人和农民发极少的退休金，同时调高退休年龄，这群过过苦日子又有孩子的人什么都不会抱怨，有想法都会憋在心里，老了之后即便有一万个不情愿，也会选择进厂打工。社会福利化是工业化大杀器，有了最低保障人们会天然的拒绝逆人性事件\n背上债务。杀死一个人最好的办法不是肉体而是灵魂，房贷加上孩子的软肋贷，就是逆人性的开始，也是进厂的开始。甚至说，负债不是目的，让大家好好工作才是精髓。把工作理由描述的再好，市面上绝大多数工作也都是基础工作，薪资待遇一般\n\n美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱\n美国在经历工业化高峰+美元霸权确立后，导致民众没有辛苦从事体力劳动的动力，而更倾向于从事金融，医生，律师等高收入服务行业。\n美国工业创新能力的衰败，产业空心化的本质原因，是基于美国社会发展水平下的民众选择，这是美元霸权的福利，也是美元霸权的代价\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["经济"]},{"title":"发展自己的工具箱","url":"/%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E7%AE%B1.html","content":"\n看到别人的东西组合出价值，想要模仿时，就会意识到，别人是N年前打好了深厚的基础，才会有这一天。\n开宗名义\n发展自己的专长，的确存在漫长的爬坡期\n\n前期慢，后期加快，新内容的比例会保持在一个美好的数字上（新问题本质都是基本零件的复杂组合）\n临界点与涌现\n\n高手有深入研究问题的工具库和习惯\n\n善用写作\n注重输出\n\n厉害的人也同样艰苦，你没那么孤单\n\n蹚过漫长的爬坡期\n枯燥和乏味是常态\n脱口秀节目的演员在台下也和码农差不多，熬夜改稿，一遍遍反复练（台上几分钟，台下得折腾一礼拜）。你听了哈哈直乐的段子，他们自己是笑不出来的。\n\n干喜剧的抑郁症不少。医疗剧经常演帅哥美女在医院搞对象，殊不知医学相关书有多厚，部分医生还业余练散打。律师剧也各种制服男女搞对象，其实大部分律师也是一箱箱看材料。商人说难听点就是到处求人调资源。\n\n特别厉害的人也一样艰苦，一样会没灵感，你没那么孤单\n增量学习策略最佳\n\n如果你学的都是新东西，大脑很容易过载，导致沮丧失落，然后就要放弃；但学的都是已了解的东西，又会觉得乏味。最好状况是所学中含有15%的新东西\n在一个领域知道的越多，学习得也就越快，后期存量大了，新东西就接近15%法则了，又快又准。前期填鸭式教育，等底子好了，就到了15%的快乐教育阶段\n\n临界点与涌现（emergence）\n在二八定律作用下，积累期会有种错觉，在未过临界点前无比痛苦\n\n新特性不包含在其系统组成部分或先前系统状态中。如生命现象是化学的一个涌现特性，心理现象是从生物的神经生物学现象中涌现出，物理学亦同样广泛拥有此类特征。\n到了一定程度，慢慢就有了组合型和扩展性。基础部件懂了，别人的东西很容易看一遍就懂了。\n碰到新问题，就在已存在的巨大知识库中搜相关内容，组合后进行快速输出（新问题本质都是基本零件的复杂组合）\n过了后有种天地宽的感觉，蹚不过，就一直是二流水平\n\n靠爱发电，找到内驱很重要\n\n坚持这个可贵的品质，有个最大的毛病 – 不可持续，除非一直被人逼着\n\n\n如当兵的的人有的说最讨厌就是5公里负重山地跑，但军队里没选择，只能每天跑的肝胆俱裂。好处也很明显，退役多年身体倍棒，但退役后就再也不坚持了\n\n\n很多人无法坚持到越过临界点，区别就在于是否能在没有感觉的情况下趟过漫长的无聊和低成就感时期\n\n工具箱式的积累\n\n捡垃圾式开宝箱和装备合成\n\n生活有点像游戏中的捡垃圾，到了一个地方，先把那地方的箱柜都翻一遍，找出有用的东西，将来升级了技能后，这些垃圾就可以合成高级玩意，成为得力工具，继而战斗力更强，幂律增长，开始超级慢，而后加速。\n捡的时候有时并不知道有用，甚至会丢掉，用的时候又找不到，边掰边扔。\n\n人的大脑是关系型图数据库，你记住的所有东西强依赖大脑里已有的东西\n客服这一点带来的负面效应，可借助写作这个工具，给捡到的每个垃圾找个位置存放起来，弄懂了的，用自己的话描述一遍，分享出来，链接到原来的知识树上，这也是费曼学习法的核心内容\n\n知识半衰期+持续学习\n从学校出来的知识，5年一个半衰期，十年的知识只有一开始的1/4\n要突破天花板到更高职级，对整体知识的要求，数量是不断增加的。伴随着知识价值的萎缩规律，想达到知识总价值的提升，需要不断有新的知识补充进来，所以不断的学习探索很重要。\n涉猎未知领域，新知识比例在15%以下，大脑才好接受。这是一个循序渐进的过程，每个人的学习风格不同，善用自己的方式和渠道就好，但与人交流时一个非常高效的方式。\n除去能力的积累，还有一项洞察问题和机遇的能力，更为重要。结果 = 发现问题+ 解决问题能力。引领自己走在人前，洞察力必须在先。\n注重输出-- 不断提高自己输出价值的能力\n\n学习基础知识后，如果每天都接触全新的知识或解决各种难题，确实没必要计较看多少书，在实践中持续学习和思考，在输出中锤炼。商人在这点上很明显，看书不多，但一直在解决各种难题，在实践中持续学习和思考，时间长了也变得非常不得了\n如果你在互联网上只是消费自己的时间和精力，而没从中赚到啥的话，那就就成为了互联网的道具。最好是向这个池子输出点啥，你不输出你卖啥呢？卖时间和隐私信息？【No Free Lunch】\n\n养成研究的习惯\n碰到一个问题，普通人可能百度一下，了解个梗概，而受过系统训练的博士可能通过多种方式，深入地把这个问题研究透，一般人没有博士们研究问题的那种心力，也不具备深入研究问题的工具库。\n高低手的区别\n\n工具箱巨大不无vs小得多（顺应工作的需要，也等价于门槛）\n高手有深入研究问题的工具库\n思维方式同样是个大工具箱，从实践中来到实践中去\n\n工具库越来越比人本身更重要，超越了人类自己，大到空间站，小到纳米手术刀，论文库，EDA，信贷，本质都是工具库里的工具。\n举一个生活处处工具箱逻辑的例子\n销售岗一般存在这样的洗礼过程\n\n头大半年一单也没谈成（熟悉流程和见世面）\n先跟着别人去搞订单，一般三四年才能独当一面\n销售这种靠搞关系的工作，也有放满基础部件的工具箱\n\n每天对着镜子练习习惯性微笑\n怎么判断对方是一个什么样的人，该用什么套路打交道\n说话前要调整心态，因为心态影响预期，别人都会感觉到\n真正的销售过程中，需要话术引导-- 不同的人有不同的软肋\n\n有些人喜欢听别人夸他\n有些人受不了别人对他好，受点好处就想还回去\n还有些人油盐不进，就等着你说回扣的事，而且你得说的非常专业，让他知道你也是专业人士，自己拿回扣很安全，不然他会一脸正气的告诉你施主请自重\n\n\n\n\n\n每个人都是一把锁，得找到你钥匙链上的那把对应钥匙，有的人可能是好几把锁得试好几次，甚至得临时发挥几把钥匙组合一下\n结语\n\n让我们搬出Jobs的名言\n\nYou can’t connect the dots looking forward, you can only connect them looking backwards.\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["HR"]},{"title":"变革是一把手工程","url":"/%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%8A%E6%89%8B%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B.html","content":"\n变革是一个亘古话题\n热力学第二定律的“死寂”宣言，可能是最终的宿命，但时间尺度太远。从更哲学的角度看，时间可能就是不存在的，时间就是运动。自然在运动，人在运动，组织在运动，这是无可否认的，在商业社会“竞争性毁灭”的压力下，一个企业（组织）的变革是无法回避的问题，甚至咱们有一则很顺口的话，改是找死，不改是等死，狭路相逢勇者胜，找死还有一线生机，总比等死好。\n商业的本质就2条\n\n与众不同（产品领先）\n成本领先（效率驱动）\n\n企业发展的大了，都不是单条腿走路的。与众不同是艺术问题；成本领先是通用问题，常见的要效率的一个解决方案是数字化转型、信息化整合，道路大家都懂，可很多公司走不到自己想要的彼岸，这是咋回事，就这个问题就记录一点点。\n虽然内容聚焦数字化转型，但制度转型，文化转型亦然，没有不是一把手工程（道理相通只是没数字化转型复杂），标题没毛病\n\n数字化转型\nMedia公司的说法\n转型不是0和1，而是广度和深度的问题，每一个环节都可以做得更深，不管是与客户的交互，还是与经销商的合作，及制造环节，产品体验等各个方面，都是逐步深化的过程。\n个人觉得这个表达是非常具有代表性的，各个领域求深度，整个公司求广度。\n数字化如果单独靠技术部门来推动，实际是产生不了效益的，成功的关键在于，大家思维的改变，说句不好听的话，思维不变的人肯定是要被一把手挪窝的。\n任何一个重大的转型（如数字化转型），sponsor（推进人）都是业务的领导，作为推进人，在业务是一把手，再加上IT数字化的团队，大家一起搞。为了打破鼓励，分散困境，一把手定下了“一个美的，一个系统，一个标准”的变革决心。光重构数字化转型基础，统一流程，IT系统，数据标准，美的就用了3年时间，正因为一步步的推进，才有可能迈入到柔性制造，智能制造的阶段（由制造到智造）\n总而言之，转型是一把手工程，如果一把手不推，永远推不动，一把手思维，再大的困难也会解决。\n摸石头过河\n美的的数字化转型，每年投入数十亿，老板坦言心中也很忐忑和如履薄冰，不知道投下去有什么确定性的收益，听到老板说这些化，CIO应该脊背发凉吧，哈哈\n这就引出了一个好玩的话题，历史上大规模的数字化/信息化不是没发生过，人性没变过，太阳底下新鲜事就不多，过往的成败有可以援引学习的东西吗\n回看ERP年代\n中国入世前后，制造业与世界接轨，要想发展的好，无不要致力于追求成本的降低及作业效率的提升（改善营运绩效），当时的大词是ERP（的确没有ERP企业也大不起来），导入ERP拥抱数据化/信息化是各有抱负的老板绕不开的选择。\n从网络上的文章结论，得出一个奇怪的现象，虽然没有公司宣称ERP导入失败，但听到各种发声的印象是没有让人满意的ERP。且但凡经历过ERP导入的人，除非负责人是皇亲国戚，常见的结局是被换掉，随之带走一两批工程师。ERP成为企业之重器，亦成为企业最大的killer应用系统，杀死最多的IT员工。宏观上看，不是ERP不好，是它赶上的年头不好，深刻理解和有成功导入经验的人太少，跟社会主义初级阶段996，过劳死一样是一个时代赋予的注脚。\n因为ERP系统的复杂性（这跟做复杂的大型软件项目一样），成功导入ERP不仅仅是技术上的事情，还有很多人的因素的事情，如果你仅仅有技术视角，大概率上失败不难理解，从微观上看，除去技术外有哪些问题或人的能力问题呢？\n\n辅以说明ERP系统的复杂，Oracle ERP约4w+的表，SAP ERP则超过7.5w张，也要为技术端开解一下，出发点不是喜欢把系统搞得辣么复杂，而是现今企业运营就是很复杂，one size的套件，又涵盖了解决业态或异化需求的边边角角\nOracle是美国的，在全球化管理和供应链定有绝招，SAP起于德国，自然在制造管理精细和科学上无出其右\n不是所有的企业都有财力导入SAP，Oracle，也有一些是本土雇人慢慢开发或用本土软件厂商的产品，当年不少高校老师也搞ERP挣钱。成熟的软件，就像一件one size的成衣，让不同身材的人穿，肯定难以满足企业各式各样的需求，但中小企业还是别怀揣自行开发的梦，导入套装仍然是最优的选择\n\n\n启动阶段，往往需求由各部门派熟悉部门运作的人负责，但这些人还是境界和认知不够，通常只考虑作业层面的需求，未考虑高层所要的整合咨询与公司未来政策，定制化的部分若只听他们这群人的，搞成单一部门功能便利性的作品，出品一定完蛋。满足不了高层对ERP的期待，最终迎接的就是管理层的责难，花了上亿的钱，数年的时间，在决策管理上，没有差异。\n需求描述与真实本质诉求不同，与IT实施方认知差距大，鸡同鸭讲；IT人员具有企业Know How的顾问师寥寥无几，有些外部顾问对企业的商业逻辑，政治和文化亦不够了解，难以贴合指引定制化，加之没有工程师可以了解ERP的所有环节，技术和商业逻辑均十分片段，大错偶尔，小状况不断。\n相关系统无法正确的提供资料给ERP系统，使得依赖细微数据的ERP功效打折扣\n使用者厌恶改变操作习惯，ERP偏偏带来全面性的变动，全面上线时，因为定制化一般做的不好（甚至中英掺杂的语言障碍），到处遇到大大小小地排斥和嫌弃，充斥信息危机\n经费花销大，工期长，有些软件合约霸道，尤其是当高层参与不够的情况下，不能最短时间内有效解决跨部门整合所衍生的冲突和变革，必然超工期和预算\n\n上面说了那么多不好，但毕竟还是有不少明星企业挺过了那个年代，不管导入阵痛和周期多久，但结果是成功导入，迈入一个新的全新的发展阶段。这一定有赖于一把手的信念和推动，借台词来说老牛在腰间，龙头在胸口，人挡杀人，佛挡杀佛。有幸成功参与（若干）大制造ERP成功导入的人，所积累的资历和经验亦是让人稀缺的羡慕。\n多说一句，那是一个洋和尚念经好使的年代，当今中国的巨头皆已换成本土企业，新一轮中国的信息化到了摸石头过河的阶段，需要的人才能力模型更加强大，人才的竞争不仅仅是IT部门的，同样对新时代的管理层，毕竟将熊熊一窝，sponsor不行，结果一定趴窝\n人才\n数字化转型的组织能力配套里，核心还是关键人才，很多是领导人才。例如美的把老的，思维跟不上的都换了，都是最近几年的年轻领导带领公司的转型，发展。在此自我革新过程中，大量的改造，基于现有的人员，不断进行训练改造思维，聘请外部专家，甚至找第三方机构协助，整个组织能力最核心的改变是关键人才跟领导人才的升级和配套。\n对顶部（关键/领导）人才的期待要要求–综合性和桥梁性。既要懂业务、产品、技术的人，又要懂数字化的科技人才，这种人很稀缺。作为科技型人才，你只懂数字化技术不算厉害，牛逼是你深刻理解业务，还要对未来的业务模式，方法有深刻的洞察力（未来的业务机构），这种人有何种竞争力自不必多言。简单点来说技术专家结合发展成为业务专家，依托业务成功打造你自己更大的成功，一个人一生能选择的成功业务其实也不可能很多。\n\n如《穷查理宝典》里所说，若想在任何领域拥有竞争力，就必须熟练地掌握该领域的方方面面，不管你是否喜欢这么做，这是人类大脑的深层结构决定的。你必须有浓厚的兴趣去弄明白正在发生的事情背后的原因，如果你能长期保持这种心态，你关注现实的能力将会逐步得到提高，如果你没有这种心态，那么即使你有很高的智商，也注定会失败\n\n因为是人才之争，除去关键人才/综合型人才，吸引其它人亦必然要付出。例如美的是哪里有数字化技术人才，他们就设到哪里去，在深圳设立了办公室，在上海也有。由硬变软，更加数字化，为了吸引人才，愿意为人才设点。\n过河方向\n在组织结构上，包括互联网公司都推崇高度分权高效率的事业部制，但视效率为生命的制造业甚至奔在了前面，也许是压力使然，没有空间再等下去了。\n随着变化越来越快的时代，需要的是高度快速反应，敏捷性，韧性，灵活性，如此在组织转型的思路上，朝向的是大平台，小组织，小团体，小单元，小业务，小分队。后台是高度的一致性，根据企业的数据，技术，追求敏捷。建两个核心，一个业务中台，一个技术部门，前方全是小的团队，区域的，产品的，以某一个业务板块划分。\n这也是当前中台为什么这么火的原因，我先前甚至还写了一篇中台的林子好热闹的文章，以显透彻沉着，看得越多，越觉趋势最重要，早信早超生。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"可复制的领导力","url":"/%E5%8F%AF%E5%A4%8D%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%8A%9B.html","content":"\n中西方的领导力有区别吗？\n东西方教育理念不同，西方注重标准化，认为只要按标准操作，一切任务都可以完成，东方则依赖能人的实力。西方企业主张管理能力由一个个工具组成，可进行标准化。\n执行力是一个伪概念\n企业领导心心念的执行力是一个伪概念，不属于规范管理学的概念，是培训课程市场化的产物。在西方管理学中，员工执行力跟老总的管理能力密切联系在一起，管理能力强悍才能衍生出执行力的坚决。如果员工执行力不强，代表企业老板的管理能力不过关。\n\n可能基于基督教性本恶的理念，员工的执行力是跟老总的管理能力配套的。\n\n当之前看一分钟经理人的时候，提出领导要明确任务。但没有给出实操的样例，因为学习是通过模仿和榜样来的，领导力的习得也是参照你能模仿的路径才能掌握。结合《你的灯亮着吗》里的说法，交待一个事情，下属要是能做好，离不开多想几个问题。\n\n在理解问题之前，至少准备好接受三种可能的出错情况，想不出来说明你根本不愿意思考\n\n最好的实操路径：\n\n\n布置任务\n麻烦你重复一遍\n你觉得我让你做这事的目的是什么\n你觉得做这事会遇到什么意外？什么样的汇报，什么样的自己搞定\n有更好的想法和建议\n\n沟通漏斗你甩不掉\n在沟通中，我们经常会遇到一个问题–沟通漏斗，你心里想的是100%，在众人面前表达时，已漏掉了20%。这80%的内容被倾听者接受后，由于文化水平，知识背景等关系，只留下了60%，实际上被消化了40%，行动时已变成了20%。\n\n所以纠偏动作第一位，提效动作第二位\n\n通过他人做事，即刻变身\n在公司里面，最大的成本是重做，在砍柴之前，耐心的磨刀是十分必要的，不要拿着钝刀子就上山，不但费力，还没什么实质性收获。\n管理者的头脑定位是“通过别人”，这里建立团队就是重中之重，最终能达到你出差，出国，团队自然运转下去。判断你带团队的能力或检验你的体系，就看你的输入产品和输出产物，最好是输入3流人才，1流结果，这里麦当劳就是好的体系（店长才要求高中以上文化），反过来就糟糕了。\n不要将管理说的很大，只要通过他人做事，此刻他就是一个管理者，哪怕普通的放羊人让别人帮他放羊。\n获得领导力伴生于公开象限的扩大\n个人工作的进程，其实就是公开象限不断放大的过程。一个人如果有足够大的公开象限，就会拥有优秀的领导力。\n\n说实在的公开象限的用词，如果只考虑4象限，不那么精准，如果你扩大想象到超空间，把象限看做维度，感性的层面会递进一层\n\n团队是球队不是家\n团队不应该称为家，而应该是一支球队，大家聚在一起是为了进步，为了赢得最终胜利。\n大船船长莫划船\n在海洋型国家中，常把管理者比如船长。小船吃水浅，没机会碰到水下暗礁，但大船吃水深，就可能碰到暗礁，如流程问题，绩效考核问题等，这时船长要做的其实是制定航行战略，避免暗礁等重要事情，而不是去划船。\n目标明确，专注主要矛盾\n作者举的一个例子很有意思，碰到自己之前的中学老师，老师说：就是你们这些好学生让我操碎了心。甚觉诧异，不应该为学渣操心么。其实不然，老师每天在教室里边转边数，清华北大上交复旦，数够15个能上好大学的，才能安心去吃早餐。那么15名以后呢，老师回答，只要别捣乱，别影响这前15名就行。\n\n看到这段老师的视角颇有醍醐灌顶的震撼，我是一个没注意或珍惜老师良苦用心的娃\n\n赛马不相马\n赛马不相马，人人是人才。当人数较多时，最重要的是管理者创造一种公平竞争，积极向上的氛围，重视赛马机制的建立。\n一些其它\n价值观和使命是企业区别的高级状态\n公司无论规模多大，都可以建立属于自己的企业文化，是价值观，信念等精神因素的结合，是一个企业文化区别于其他企业的最高级状态，在精神上将员工凝聚在一起。企业文化的特征在于独特，西方很多公司用创始人自己的名字命名也是这样的一种诠释。\n团队一致性 – 持续弱刺激\n任何一个员工反馈的时机，都是打造团队一致性的好时机。发奖金的时机就是一个好时机。\n善用激励\n技术人员转管理经常激励手段很单一\n虽然你能掌控的资源可能是有限的，但有意识的制造资源的稀缺性，是需要去锻造的，打破给人提供充足资源的习惯性做法\n撒谎的信号\n一个人在撒谎时，会抚摸自我安慰区，女性的自我安慰区是胸口，男性的自我安慰区是脑后。另外耸肩，摸鼻子，抓痒，快速眨眼也是说谎的一些信号。\n绩效最终体现在员工的成长中\n员工为企业的成长投资了最宝贵的资源–时间，因此企业要保证在这些时间内让员工有所提升，企业严格管理员工，是为了提升员工的职场价值。对职场人士来说，如果在工作中没有开拓新领域，获得新能力，只是日复一日重复，所谓的”工作经验“是非常廉价的。员工的进步跟管理者的严格管理有很大关系，是团队自信的底气。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"后疫情时代房价观察","url":"/%E5%90%8E%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F.html","content":"自三道红线和指导价开启的调整\n本世纪最伟大的两个营销骗局，钻石和房子。钻石已经被戳穿了，作为哺乳动物繁衍后代是刻在基因里的终极使命，所以捆绑这个主题进行营销，总能成功给消费者洗脑，没有房子就没有生育权，搭配没有钻石就没有择偶权。\n2021年开始，中国的房地产市场经历了连续三年的下滑（基于人均住房面积+居民上门宏观杠杆率，官方主动踩的刹车），这算是自商品房市场成立以来持续时间最长、跌幅最大的一次调整。当前市场步入『以价换量』的阶段，房价跌幅大于租金。\n楼市一次性拿走整个社会 50 年的财富，出现了短暂的十几年繁华，成就了少量的超级富豪，领先全球的城镇基建，外加一班的房奴和一班的老赖。\n这次调整周期中，中国的房价到底下跌了多少？\n从 重点50 城来看，上半年平均租售比为 1:590（相当于 590 个月能收回成本，约 49 年），但仍远低于国际合理区间（传说全球合理区间为1:200~1:300之间，也就是售租比 16.7~25，租金回报率 6%~4%），理论上仍有修正空间，但其收益私有化，成本社会化（资本来自外部，推高的成本又有全民买单），风险全民化的特征，实际也没什么太多下探空间，只能死扛到『科技竞赛胜利/产业结构胜出』$\\longrightarrow$收入上涨来缓解。\n\n至于为何会进展到如此地步，可以联系看看经济与债务。胆子大的奸商是有，但造成整体产业高杠杆高周转等风险问题的制度绿灯，都是为了加快房地产的流转速度，而房地产流转速度的本质就是土地流转速度，不就是城市的发展速度吗？所以我们已经在为城市化进程过快的果买单了。\n预售卖光的烂尾楼监管账户钱去哪了\n\n房企根本不把房款打进监管账户，而是进普通账户「这里是监管尸位素餐+开发商舞弊的狼狈为奸」\n建筑公司承接自己楼盘，伪造工程进度/虚假关联交易，都是自家人，按流程套取工程款\n监管渎职，违规发放监管资金：开发商表衷心，提起拿钱去盖更多楼，拉动小芬，自然有人愿意放行\n\n提前取钱对多方都是有益的，除了业主。\n房贷、养老、生育三角困局\n房贷本质是以未来现金流为抵押，获取的长期融资工具，在普通家庭机缘下，这是唯一一种创造负债的同时创造家庭核心资产的工具。根据发展阶段，其可以是优质杠杆，也可以是伪装成资产的负债。\n在首付和月供能力约束下，央行的标准是不超过收入的 50%，那么月入过万的负债上限也就 100w（总价 150w 的房子，首付接近 50w）。而现实默认是父母资助或双方共同，一二线超 60%首付资金依赖于父母的资助，没有家庭资助的应届毕业生在城市收入水平线，要存 10 年，才够首付。\n这种结构性矛盾就衍生多个社会效应\n\n代际财富的畸形分配（社科院调研1/3的养老金都是用来资助子女购房，这还是在40%的群体缺乏可持续收入的养老金的前提下），\n家庭夫妻双方 60%的收入用来月供和养孩子，若加上反哺养老，则要超过 60%。\n这些压力转移到现代适婚人群，就是延迟生育，被迫的人口结构转型。从十几20 年前的20 岁出头，到现在的接近30 岁，农村都延迟了何况城镇。\n\n老龄化加速和生育延迟叠加会形成更大的财富断层和阶级断层，普通居民杠杆 60%无限接近发达国家，但社会保障支出远远跟不上。国内家庭资产又有 70%集中于房产，在房价或经济波动周期里表现出极其脆弱性，这是当下的最本质问题。\n买房、育儿、养老导致高杠杆，高杠杆导致高负债，高负债导致延迟结婚生育，新生儿持续降低，老龄化加速。当代年轻人和当下经济核心目的就是债务出清和资产负债修复，在拉扯中尽力平衡，要理性的是房价与居民杠杆率存在负相关关系，房价下降 10%，实际负债将被动上升 11%左右，这种金融和民生保障的复杂博弈，决定了政策工具箱必然优先选择稳资产，也就是先救市，而不是放任市场自由活动。\n市场其实已经救过来了，只是缩小到个人身上感觉是没救过来。因为对个人而言，100w 还剩 20 才叫救过来，不愿意付出时间也不愿意让开空间，这是常规心态，凡是有盈利想法的就不要抱怨。\n需求决定下限，长期解决方案还是要回到基础的收入分配改革，还有公共服务均等化，所以有增收，教改，医改等支出型结构调整。这些都是实质性破解房贷，养老，生育三角困局的办法，但这是长期的事情，短期还是用别的水池的水，先解渴，再普惠。各方还是想通过拉动资产价格，用你的债务接别人的债务的方式做到债务出清，途径还是发贷款，降首付也不是图你那 15%的现金。\n一线城市房价状况\n回落至2016至2017\n\n\n\n香港楼市在去年2月宣布全面“撤辣”(取消额外印花税、买家印花税和新住宅印花税等)后，香港楼市迎来一波小反弹，先是中原城市领先指数持续上扬，但后续又开始持续下跌\n从峰值到现在，深圳的二手房价格累计下降了37.3%，涨幅是最高的，同时也最早达到了峰值，跌幅也是最显著的。最新二手房成交均价约为5.9万元/平方米，这一水平大致回到了2016年8月的价格水平，2016年的二手房成交均价大约为5.4万元/平方米，部分月份 6 万元/平方米。如何理解呢，也只能说在四大一线中深圳原来杠杆率最高\n广州的房价从峰值至今已经下跌了26.8%，回到了2017年6月的价格水平，二手房挂牌量也去到了 15w 套的历史高值\n归因于北上两地早些时候实施了更为严格的房地产市场调控政策，提高了投资炒房的门槛，使得市场波动相对平稳。8月初上海二手住宅的平均成交价为57915元/平方米，结合历年的价值，可以得出当前房价价格已回落至2017年水平。北京二手住宅的平均成交价已较23年高点下跌约一万元，部分数据显示已回调至2016年水平，整体跌幅显著，尤其是郊区和老破小房源，跌幅普遍在40%至50%之间\n\n下钻搞钱第一城鹏城（2023）\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#fdd8e1,#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"深圳 04-23 年二手房交易走势\"\n    x-axis \"年份-折线均价w/平米\" [2004, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09,  10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16,  17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23,24H1]\n    y-axis \"量能-柱图过户量w套\" 0 --> 16\n    bar [5.3, 6.6, 8.5, 9.2, 4.3, 15.5,11.3, 6.1, 5.7, 8.8, 5.7, 12.7, 9.6, 6.4,  6.5, 7.7, 9.5, 4.1, 2.2, 3.3]\n    line [0.6, 0.7, 0.9, 1.3, 1.2, 1.4,1.6, 1.5, 1.6, 1.9, 2.3, 3.1, 5, 5.5,  5.9, 6.2, 7, 8, 7.4, 6.5,5.9]\n2023议价空间\n2023 年深圳二手房平均议价空间\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#ff0000,#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"2023年深圳二手房平均议价空间\"\n    x-axis \"月份 议价率=(最后挂牌价-成交价)/最后挂牌价\" [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12]\n    y-axis \"议价比例 %\" 1 --> 11\n    line [8,6.8,6.9,7.1,7.5,9.1,10.5,8.2,8.1,8.8,10.7,10.2]\n\n2021年参考价政策出台第一年，深圳54.5%的房源成交价高于参考价20%以上，只有5%的房源成交价低于参考价。\n2022年，低于参考价成交的占比上涨到19.7%。\n2023年全年，低于参考价成交的占比大幅增长至50.3%。2023H1，低于参考价成交占比仅3成左右，但7月开始大幅度提升，一跃超过6成。Q4起更是超过7成，直至12月底，低于参考价成交占比达到80%，『不低于参考价的房子不看』已经为市场常态\n\n2023H2 指导价vs 实际价偏差\npie title 低于指导价成交的低多少\n\t\"低 0-5%\":25\n\t\"低 5-10%\":23\n\t\"低 10-15%\":21\n\t\"低 15-20%\":14\n\t\"低 20-30%\":12\n\t\"低 30%+\":5\n2023二手房源成交周期\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#ff0000,#ff0000\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"2023年深圳二手房成交周期\"\n    x-axis \"年份\" [2019,2020,2021,2022,2023]\n    y-axis \"成交周期（天）\" 30 --> 200\n    line [136,113,108,153,178]\n\n\n2023年深圳二手房成交周期平均为178天，比2022年拉长了近1个月的时间。\n\n\n近5年里成交周期最短是2021年的108天，大概3个半月。3年时间，深圳二手房成交周期已经近乎翻倍。业主出售需要更大的耐心。\n\n\n不完全是“越大越难卖”。2023年改善客群积极入市，90-144㎡的二手房成交周期反而是最短的，为166天。低于60㎡的小户型成交周期并不低，达到172天。144㎡以上的豪宅总价高，目标客群主要是小范围的高净值人群，成交周期自然较长，超过210天。\n\n\n---\nconfig:\n    themeVariables:\n        xyChart:\n            plotColorPalette: \"#fdd8e1\"\n---\nxychart-beta\n    title \"2023深圳不同面积二手房去化周期\"\n    x-axis \"面积段\" [\"(0,60]\",\"(60-90]\",\"(90-144]\",\"144+\"]\n    y-axis \"成交周期（天）\" 160 --> 220\n    bar [172,169,166,211]\n成交片区与客户年龄\n2023年二手房过户量排名前三的片区依然是三大“老演员”：龙岗中心城、布吉和西乡，前三名连续3年未变。但去年各片区成交量同比有了明显上涨。龙岗中心城上涨39%，布吉上涨31%，西乡上涨59%，各类片区数据可详见参考链接[1]。\n城市常住人口的平均年龄只有32.5岁，购房者平均年龄36.5岁，购房群体年龄相较 22 年上涨 0.5 岁，有增大趋势。各年龄层上41-50岁群体和21-30岁群体分别相较 22 年出现 2%左右的升降，主力31-40 的几乎无变化，95后00后年轻人更加倾向于先租房，部分群体转向购买人才房也会带来购房年龄增大。\n售租比详细透视\n\n2019年来重点 50 城租售比=单位月租金/单位房价[3]\n\n\n\n\n时间\n租金（元/平米/月）\n房价（元/平米）\n租售比\n\n\n\n\n2019\n33.93\n20219\n1:596\n\n\n2020\n33.83\n20310\n1:600\n\n\n2021\n33.82\n20677\n1:611\n\n\n2022\n33.79\n20665\n1:612\n\n\n2023\n33.68\n20597\n1:611\n\n\n2024 上半年\n33.29\n19640\n1:590\n\n\n\n\n2019年来重点 50 城售租比=房屋总价/房屋年租金\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"重点 50 城售租比\"\n    x-axis [2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024H1]\n    y-axis \"售租比\" 48 --> 53\n    bar [49.7, 50, 51, 51, 52.1, 49.2]\n    line [49.7, 50, 51, 51, 52.1, 49.2]\n高售租比城市集中在长、珠三角经济圈。\n\n厦门位居售租比榜首，靠出租收回成本需 76 年，东莞达 71.6 年，位居第二。宁波，金华，深圳，苏州紧随其后，售租比均在 60 年以上。\n银川、乌鲁木齐、贵阳分列低租售比前三，不到 30 年就可以通过出租收回成本。桂林，哈尔滨，长沙，湛江租售比也较为合理，均在 35 年以下\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"重点 50 城租金回报率\"\n    x-axis [2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024H1]\n    y-axis \"租金回报率 (in %)\" 1.9 --> 2.1\n    bar [2.01, 2, 1.96, 1.96, 1.96, 2.03]\n    line [2.01, 2, 1.96, 1.96, 1.96, 2.03]\n\n租金回报率 2.03%（高过五大行 5 年期定存 1.8%，但与 10 年期国债2.23%比仍无优势），创 2019 年来新高\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"24年投资收益率对比\"\n    x-axis [\"10年期国债\", \"50城房租金\", \"基金平均收益率\", \"5年定存\", \"1年期国债\"]\n    y-axis \"回报率 (in %)\" 1.3 --> 2.3\n    bar [2.23, 2.03, 2, 1.8, 1.47]\n    line [2.23, 2.03, 2, 1.8, 1.47]\n租金回报城市能级负相关\n城市能级越高，租金回报率越低，高租金回报率以弱二线及三四线城市居多。24H1 一线城市租金回报率 1.79%，同比回落0.01%;二线城市回报率1.92%，同比上升0.09%, 三四线为2.46%，同比上升0.12%。\n\n\n\n时间\n一线\n二线\n三四线\n\n\n\n\n2019\n1.89%\n1.96%\n2.41%\n\n\n2020\n1.9%\n1.95%\n2.34%\n\n\n2021\n1.84%\n1.92%\n2.32%\n\n\n2022\n1.91%\n1.9%\n2.32%\n\n\n2023\n1.8%\n1.92%\n2.46%\n\n\n2024H1\n1.79%\n2%\n2.57%\n\n\n\n2024H1租金回报率降序队列\n\n2024H1租金回报率降序排列，厦门租金回报率仅 1.32%，最差高居榜首。银川租金回报率4.58%, Top1，甩第二名乌鲁木齐3.63%近 1 个百分点；\n因各种研究报告的城市范围不一致，也没释出全部清单，所以你看到部分省会城市未列出数据，因为它们也藏在区间内。\n\n\n\n\n名次\n城市\n等级\n经济圈\n租金回报率%\n售租比（年）\n售租比较 23 年变化（年）\n租金收入比%\n租金收入排名（租房痛苦烈度）\n\n\n\n\n1\n厦门\n二线\n海峡\n1.32 %\n75.8\n-3.6\n15.71 %\n44\n\n\n2\n东莞\n二线\n珠三角\n1.4 %\n71.4\n-6.2\n9.9 %\n15\n\n\n3\n宁波\n二线\n长三角\n1.58 %\n63.3\n-4.2\n\n\n\n\n4\n金华\n二线\n长三角\n1.6 %\n62.5\n+3.4\n8.05 %\n1\n\n\n5\n深圳\n一线\n珠三角\n1.61 %\n62.1\n+1.1\n26.95 %\n50\n\n\n6\n苏州\n二线\n长三角\n1.66 %\n60.2\n-2.8\n\n\n\n\n7\n三亚\n三四线\n珠三角\n1.69 %\n59.2\n-4.2\n24.57 %\n48\n\n\n8\n青岛\n二线\n环渤海\n1.74 %\n57.5\n-4.6\n9.68 %\n13\n\n\n9\n福州\n二线\n海峡\n1.77 %\n56.5\n\n\n\n\n\n10\n南京\n二线\n长三角\n1.79 %\n55.9\n\n12.91 %\n\n\n\n11\n泉州\n二线\n海峡\n1.81 %\n55.2\n+1\n9.79 %\n14\n\n\n12\n常州\n二线\n长三角\n1.81 %\n55.2\n\n8.53 %\n5\n\n\n13\n北京\n一线\n环渤海\n1.81 %\n55.2\n+1\n24.52 %\n47\n\n\n14\n温州\n二线\n长三角\n1.86 %\n53.8\n-4.1\n9.56 %\n12\n\n\n15\n杭州\n二线\n长三角\n1.86 %\n53.8\n-5.5\n16.36 %\n45\n\n\n\n上海\n一线\n长三角\n\n\n\n25.28 %\n49\n\n\n\n广州\n一线\n珠三角\n1.89 %\n\n\n16.63 %\n46\n\n\n\n成都\n二线\n西南\n\n\n\n15.21 %\n43\n\n\n\n福州\n二线\n海峡\n\n\n\n14.96 %\n41\n\n\n\n西安\n二线\n西北\n\n\n\n14 %\n38\n\n\n\n天津\n二线\n环渤海\n\n\n\n13.41 %\n36\n\n\n\n烟台\n三四线\n环渤海\n\n\n\n8.13 %\n2\n\n\n\n中山\n二线\n珠三角\n\n\n\n8.23 %\n3\n\n\n\n无锡\n二线\n长三角\n\n\n\n9.26 %\n9\n\n\n\n佛山\n二线\n珠三角\n\n\n\n9.34 %\n10\n\n\n\n惠州\n三四线\n珠三角\n\n\n\n9.34 %\n11\n\n\n\n昆明\n二线\n西南\n\n\n\n10.1 %\n\n\n\n\n武汉\n二线\n中部\n\n\n\n10.76 %\n\n\n\n\n盐城\n三四线\n长三角\n\n\n\n11.03 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n36\n太原\n二线\n环渤海\n2.51 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n37\n威海\n三四线\n环渤海\n2.59 %\n\n\n9.17 %\n8\n\n\n38\n呼和浩特\n三四线\n西北\n2.69 %\n\n\n9 %\n6\n\n\n39\n洛阳\n三四线\n中部\n2.75 %\n\n\n10.36 %\n\n\n\n40\n南宁\n二线\n珠三角\n2.76 %\n\n\n14.35 %\n40\n\n\n41\n大连\n二线\n东北\n2.76 %\n\n\n14.18 %\n39\n\n\n42\n淄博\n三四线\n环渤海\n2.79 %\n\n\n8.5 %\n4\n\n\n43\n沈阳\n二线\n东北\n2.8 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n44\n湛江\n三四线\n珠三角\n2.89 %\n\n\n15.03 %\n42\n\n\n45\n长沙\n二线\n中部\n3.07 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n46\n哈尔滨\n二线\n东北\n3.13 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n47\n桂林\n三四线\n珠三角\n3.29 %\n\n\n9.14 %\n7\n\n\n48\n贵阳\n二线\n西南\n3.44 %\n\n\n\n\n\n\n49\n乌鲁木齐\n三四线\n西北\n3.63 %\n\n\n12.29 %\n\n\n\n50\n银川\n三四线\n西北\n4.58 %\n\n\n13.58 %\n37\n\n\n\n对照 2019 年\n\n更多信息和图表，可参见[2]\n\n\n不谈房价谈变化\n央行在二季报里也特地设了一个专栏：支持租房租赁产业可持续发展，给了一些调调和资金支持的吹风。提到租金是影响住房价值的核心变量，租售比是衡量住房价值的简化指标，若静态租售比提升到 3% 「对应于售租比 33 年，租售比1：400」以上，将高于多数资产回报率，租房租赁产业是未来房地产发展的重要方向。\n政策鼓励或不鼓励的事项，或许不会立刻产生效果，但最终必然会带来显著影响。例如曾有一段时期，银保监的郭主席将房地产称作「灰犀牛」，并告诫众人留意房地产投资的风险，一年多以后，房地产的拐点就出现了。证监会在两年多前提出构建『中国特色社会主义估值体系』，许多人不相信 PE低于 10 倍，市净率低于 1 倍的央企未来会迎来一波上涨，而后中石油、工行，中行，长江电力，中国联通的走势验证了者一切。要关注政策趋势，而且要提前进行布局，且还需要一定的耐心。\n1970年以来15个国家的22次房地产危机\n\n\n\n大型房地产泡沫5年期内至少上涨50%，或3年35%随后下跌至少35%\n时间\n小型房地产泡沫5年期间至少上涨35%，或3年20%随后下跌至少20%\n时间\n\n\n\n\n比利时🇧🇪\n1979-Q3\n芬兰🇫🇮\n1982-Q2\n\n\n丹麦🇩🇰\n1986-Q2\n爱尔兰🇮🇪\n2007-Q1\n\n\n丹麦🇩🇰\n2006-Q3\n荷兰🇳🇱\n1978-Q2\n\n\n芬兰🇫🇮\n1974-Q2\n新西兰🇳🇿\n1974-Q3\n\n\n爱尔兰🇮🇪\n1980-Q4\n挪威🇳🇴\n1987-Q1\n\n\n意大利🇮🇹\n1981-Q2\n南非🇿🇦\n1984-Q1\n\n\n日本🇯🇵\n1973-Q4\n西班牙🇪🇸\n2007-Q2\n\n\n日本🇯🇵\n1990-Q4\n英国🇬🇧\n1973-Q3\n\n\n韩国🇰🇷\n1979-Q2\n美国🇺🇸\n2006-Q1\n\n\n韩国🇰🇷\n1991-Q1\n\n\n\n\n西班牙🇪🇸\n1978-Q2\n\n\n\n\n西班牙🇪🇸\n1991-Q4\n\n\n\n\n瑞典🇸🇪\n1990-Q1\n\n\n\n\n\n\n以危机发生当年的实际房价水平为100，泡沫破裂前后房价的走势变化可以分为四个阶段：\n\n危机前10年至前5年，房价较为缓慢上升，5年内总计上涨约7%\n危机前第5年开始到危机爆发前，房价进入快速上涨期，相较于危机前第5年累计上涨了50%\n泡沫破裂后房价进入漫长的下降期，在危机后第6年下降至最低值，较峰值下降30%，刚好大约是危机前5年的水平 （和中国 16~17 年也差不多能对上）\n房价开始缓慢向上修复，但截至第10年，房价水平仍不能回复至危机前的峰值水平，仅为最高值的85%左右\n\n\n\n日本的危机在很多其它方面也与别的样本国家非常不一样，日本的危机是一个虽然烈度并不算太高，但更加漫长的危机（部分跟日本的人口结构有关系，90 年危机后工作年龄人口增长率持续为负）\n房地产投资的走势变化与房价变化基本相同，但要延迟于房价反转一年才反转\n\n从渴盼暴涨到止跌企稳\n房价的修复前提是居民负债表得到修复，自发性修复非常缓慢，天量烂尾楼尚未解决，公信力已经打了折扣。00 后及更后面的新时代群，购房动机比较低（24 年 9 月16~24岁全国城镇不含在校学生失业率17.6%，实际更高，或许这批锚定公租房）。当前最尴尬的是 85-95 人群，这代人在房地产带来的负债被修复前显得无力积极参与整个消费市场，而这批人反而是目前社会上生产力最高，消费也本应是最高的人，这场债务危机加大了年轻世代衡量购房必要性的疑虑，又进一步加大了人口断代的长期危机，在人口大趋势（年净新增1000w 退休）下今年火急火燎上马了延迟退休。\n参考其他国家房地产模式，美日西方房地产泡沫出清节奏，长期的下跌通道是大概率结果，只有美国走出了V字反转，这是在唯一的超级大国的背景下虹吸全球做到的，从人口趋势上中日太像「同恰逢劳动人口拐点」，中国甚至未富先老，但从产业和政治独立性上大不一样，所以这是一场探索式的行军，没有复刻模板可以借鉴，不可悲观也不应盲目自信「灰犀牛一个也没躲过去」。\n\n\n上图也有其险恶用心，只以时间长度来推算描述，不看下跌深度和速率。按本文前面的分析，中国一线城市房价已经下探了接近25 ~ 30%，类比美国的下探幅度28%，日本的下探幅度45%，中国已经接近美国的修复幅度(当然中国的泡沫是大过美国的，美国的都只能算是一个小型地产泡沫），不是说 30%就代表实际 OK了，而是政府干预金融风险，不允许继续下探修复，很多小国都是下探幅度过 40%，如日韩西班牙。\n\n\n\n从这张图上二手房是理应更亮起始点更高的那条线，也反映出当年一二手的倒挂趋势，现在尚未普遍修正到 20%的区间，一线城市已领先修正到75%分位，国家在急忙出来喊话喊底\n\n中国长期人口结构很不乐观（23 年15~59 岁劳动力净减少 1000 万，不过这 1000万退休不是购房人群），这个锚点永远无法绕过，所以房地产即使进入止跌企稳，后面仍有数年的横盘，直到新一波年轻人口入市（租售比修复），或城市旧基建翻新（新房去库存周期低于 14 个月），才有明显上涨（将在改善房和优质房中复苏）；还有一种情况是天量货币流入市场（大通胀），可以冲销债务，但以货币购买力层面来说，货币大幅贬值会导致更多人变穷，哪怕是这种下下策，大量三线以下城市也回不到高点，因为人口和政策都会流向大城市群和枢纽城市。房地产税和维修基金的落地是楼市在货币购买力和纸面金额见底的必然因素，当从市场扩张走向市场维护，必然需要可持续税源，房地产那么好的税源不可能不收。待到房地产税落地后，家庭收入稳健到f时可重点考虑购入一二线城市，除此外买房都将注定是消费而非投资。\n好房子写入政府工作报告\n我国所有的政策都是围绕着卖，而不是围绕着住。除了降价外的招都愿意出。如何让有房子的人心甘情愿地换新房，总要找个合适的理由。而老房二手房既然已经被老实人接盘，还能让你跑了不成？\n开发商可以影响政策，而真正住房子的业主却不行。开发商说在阳台偷面积种树是好房子，政策就配合开发商做噱头，鼓励在阳台盖违建；开发商说中央新风恒温恒湿是好房子（实际在中国这个季风气候国家，层高调高后知冷知热效果都会变差，会增大使用成本，新房只能面向对增加成本感知较弱的人群），政策就配合加高层高；开发商在公摊面积上做文章，政策就配合改公摊面积，政策总是跟着开发商胃口前后脚走，总是为了售楼小姐话术服务。\n新房企稳跟存量二手房的关系已经没那么大了，一般的二手房在陪老实人变老途中慢慢贬值。\n好房子/豪宅可否成为救世主？\n高端楼盘维护成本跟豪车一样，是逐年上升的，例如维持会所运营要额外的付出。房子的真实成本=初始售价+维护成本，有不少提前折现的产品，而多数购房者并未真正具备持续支付能力。2024 年 140m2 以上户型库存去化周期达 28 个月，是 90m2 以下户型的 3.1 倍。原因也简单，家庭规模持续缩小，2025 年平均每户 2.4 人，较 2010 年减少 0.7 人。从功能调研显示，独立衣帽间的实际使用率仅 19%，对可变空间的需求增至 68%。当时间走到 2025 年，25-35 购房群体变成了如下考量公式：\n$住房价值=0.4通勤效率+0.3社区活力+0.2改造弹性+0.1身份象征$\n\n而 60、70 后的群体公式中身份象征权重达 0.45\n\n年轻人更倾向轻资产模式，48%选择买 老破小+重金改造，而非直接购买精装新房，37%接受 核心区小户型+近郊第二居所的组合方案，甚至 15%开始尝试 购房+REITs 投资对冲持有成本。新一代用消费电子品逻辑看待住房，不追求永恒占有，而是持续迭代，计划每 5-8 年通过置换升级居住体验。住房从资本品回归耐用消费品，定价权从金融属性转向使用价值，市场生态分化：有钱人不差钱住豪宅，普通人老老实实计算成本和性价比，不为明天的泡沫支付今天的溢价。\n参考\n1.深圳房地产信息网 2023年深圳楼市年报—乐有家研究中心 ↩2.每经网 2019只靠房租，房东多少年能回本 ↩3.腾讯网 租房更划算了吗 ↩4.网易 美日是如何走出房地产危机的 ↩5.金融四十人论坛 跨国比较：泡沫破裂后的房地产市场 ↩6.经济50人论坛 2024年二季度宏观杠杆率 ↩7.格隆汇 如何看待中国房地产的调整 ↩8.格隆汇 中金：别人的“后地产”时代 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["房产"]},{"title":"和田玉的下沉演变","url":"/%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98.html","content":"\n以前有种说法讲东方审美重『韵』与『质』，西方重『色』与『火』，在资本与品牌推广方面，东方相较弱势点。今天看到一篇侧面解读，是否客观需要琢磨求证。但不失为一种视角补充。\n和田玉的成分\n和田玉的主要成分是透闪石，一块矿石若超过 90%都是透闪石（透闪石是含水的钙铁镁质硅酸盐），就可以称为软玉。如果一块软玉里透闪石恰好按纤维交织的状态排列，看起来温润，反光柔和，就可以称为和田玉。所以和田玉的本质只是特定结构的透闪石。\n中国古人为何会喜欢和田玉？\n人类天生喜欢漂亮的石头，甲骨文的玉字就是穿起来的石片形状。钻石和彩色宝石这些硬质矿物需要长期处在高压低温环境才能形成，比如说钻石一旦温度超过 1400 度就会石墨化，矿石成型后，又需要快速喷发的岩浆把矿石运到地表，速度太慢的话矿物质就会被高温降解。\n地理的限制\n现在世界上绝大多数硬质宝石都集中在克拉通地形的古大陆，主要是南非、印度这些地方。中国虽也有克拉通地形，但主要集中在东北和胶东地区。中国古代封建王朝主要活动在中国的泛滥平原，东部的沉积盆地，这些区域产生不了硬质的宝石，古代中国人就接触不到。虽没有其它的宝石，但中国人接触到相对软的玉石，今天的中国是欧亚板块，印度板块，太平洋板块碰撞形成的，有全世界最宽的复合造山带，这种地理构造让岩层出现很多裂缝，方便岩浆带着矿物质侵入，形成玉石矿。中国各种原始部落活动区域，都可以产出玉，如新疆产和田玉，河南产独山玉，内蒙产鸡血石，陕西产蓝田玉。很长一段时间里，中国人能接触到的漂亮石头只有玉，所以特权阶层就开始垄断玉石，证明自己和普通人不同。和田玉质地更加细腻，也更容易加工，地位相较其它国内玉石就要高一些。\n\n玉石的下放\n在原始社会，玉是通神之物，一般被打造成祭器，只有部落首领可以使用，跟神进行沟通，说文解字解释灵这个字时也说：巫以玉事神。这个时候玉的作用可称为神玉，巅峰是商朝。\n商王武丁曾花了三年时间对西北一个叫鬼方的部落发动战争，可能目的之一就是抢夺和田玉，形成中原王朝和新疆最早的贸易通道，和田玉也有了稳定的供应，开始从神权降格到王权，也被称王玉。妇好墓里就有 755 件玉器，基本都是和田玉。到了周朝，和田玉的产量进一步提高，玉的重要性开始下降，从王室用品变成了贵族用品，按照不同规格用玉器标识身份。\n到了秦汉时期，贵族阶层消亡不少，丝绸之路成型，和田玉的重要性进一步下降，西域都护府设立之后，于阗国每年要给汉朝输送十万斤和田玉，从此后，除了羊脂白玉仅限皇室使用外，其它和田玉被加工成配饰，挂件，酒杯甚至镇纸，这时和礼器的关系就不大了。\n到魏晋南北朝，儒家不流行了，玉的神圣性进一步削弱，墓葬里玉制的礼器不到 8%（汉朝时还是 50%），将近 80%还是日常挂件，这时候玉还开发出了食品功能，等到唐宋时期，跟新疆的商路更加稳定，玉就彻底世俗化了，普通人开始用上和田玉，陕西山东都形成了玉雕产业带，城市里也出现了卖玉小店铺。虽然地位在下降，玉石的加工水平反而快速上升，透雕圆雕工艺就出现在这个时候。\n翡翠的冲击\n到了清朝，和田玉的地位遭到毁灭性打击，因为中国不产硬质宝石，历代统治者才推崇和田玉。乾隆 36 年开始，缅甸的翡翠大量进入中国，翡翠的颜色更加鲜艳，质地也更硬，很快收到统治者认同，慈禧直接把翡翠定为皇家玉，带头用上翡翠饰品。\n在乾隆初年，翡翠的价格只有和田玉1/10，到了晚晴，价格已经超出和田玉近 10 倍，一开始大家没有把翡翠当成玉，过了 五六十年，就比和田玉贵多了。苏州本来是清朝的玉雕中心，到了道光年间，70%的店铺都转行开始加工翡翠首饰，从此以后翡翠基本占领了首饰市场，和田玉只能加工笔筒镇纸供文人使用，这些文人显然不是有多爱和田玉，只是翡翠的价格太高。直到今天，翡翠还是中国的玉石之王。翡翠有什么高级特性？无非更好地迎合特权阶级为了区别其它人群的需求。\n现在对和田玉的炒作喜欢附加各种玄学属性，清朝已经证明，皇帝一旦接触到翡翠，马上就抛弃了和田玉，如果古代中国能和南非保持稳定的贸易，钻石和其他宝石估计早就能打败玉石了。今天的和田玉有大规模的市场，原因不是稀缺，也不是古代流传的文化价值，唯一可靠的只是装饰价值，作为漂亮石头来出售，用化学分析的方式去定义质量（如国标里的颜色，彩度，明度），跟产地无关，和历史也没有关系，市场才能透明，才能得到普通消费者的长期认同。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史","文化"]},{"title":"哪吒与雄狮少年","url":"/%E5%93%AA%E5%90%92%E4%B8%8E%E9%9B%84%E7%8B%AE%E5%B0%91%E5%B9%B4.html","content":"\n初看代入哪吒，我命由我不由天。再看代入小镇做题家申公豹（离十二金仙一步之遥），再看是土拨鼠，终日为那碗饭奔波。最后一合计，自己最多是一个没有什么法术战斗力接近于 0 的陈塘关百姓。\n年龄上来后，大家慢慢会有中感觉，开始意识到自己的渺小，很难再代入那些有超能力，buff 叠满的主角们，反而开始共情那些弱小的，因为在潜意识里意识到了，如果真有什么事情发生，自己可能是弱小的一方。主角感的遗失就是年龄增长的一个结果。\n魔童设定的百姓视角\n俩官二代祸害老百姓捅了娄子再造反，神仙打架百姓遭殃。这便是里面普通人的感受。\n在电影构造的氛围渲染下，小孩或许以为自己是哪吒，我命由我不由天。但作为父母的你是龙王还是陈塘关总司令？若你只能是陈塘关的百姓，则是另一番际遇，连个妖精都不如（好歹妖精还有炼丹的价值）。\n在魔童宇宙，一群禽兽甚至植物都在努力装做人，道行越高装的越像，装的越像地位越高，但千万别是人，是人台词没有，被官二代横行乡里折磨的不敢出门，被西海龙王碳化，从头欺负到尾，在 2 中喊疼的机会都没有，灰飞烟灭，屁都不剩。\n\n魔童系列里的主要人物除了李靖和李夫人以外都是变态暴徒，包括太乙真人。哪吒和母亲的母子情大家看得到，所有的类型片为了区分黑老大和坏黑老大通常都是用他们是不是顾家孝顺来区分，毕竟两边都是欺负老百姓毫无心理负担，哪吒全片除了李靖找不到对普通百姓有责任感的角色了。\n李靖在影片结尾经过龙王一句：“你们都是被骗的！”，好像已经原谅那些屠戮陈塘关的虾兵蟹将，但不代表李靖原谅你就要原谅，南京大屠杀能原谅吗？\n饺子导演用一种戏谑的手法解构了神仙妖怪的残忍，让普通观众看这些的时候不会有太大的道德心理负担，沉浸享受整部电影，不这样表达，没法推动这些正反横跳的角色们了。漫画类电影特点就是把所有能打的放一个竞技场里乱炖，漫威和火影亦是这个路数，只不过在人物底色处理上，魔童2导演更加冷酷决绝。\n你可以外延导演他讽刺现实，但饺子也不敢也不会承认，那么人物动机就不是惩恶扬善追求是非公道，就是图个痛快！是迎合观众的爽剧设定。大家去电影院看的就是一个超脱，不想看另一个自己.天天心想：老子受不了这口鸟气。但你要问呢，就是为朋友，为帮派，为天下，这样格外吸引现实中被生活折磨窝囊到没边的观众们。\n厌恶角色设定不代表厌恶作品本身，画面效果大卖实至名归，只能说多喜爱谈不上。大概率魔童3，导演会安排一个时光倒流大复活。有些事真的回不去了，但童话可以。\n对比1979哪吒闹海\n我们的神话改编相较以往出了问题，传统哪吒闹海的一个高潮部分是李靖和哪吒在百姓和儿子间做出道德选择，是一种舍己为苍生，忠孝难两全的道德陷阱，强调的是苍生，强调的是普通老百姓的生命价值，非常高级。在那个年代，普通人的命是可以换一个军区司令儿子一条命的，龙王要的也是一个说法，一个公道。\n大卖的新国漫中，普通人什么都不是，毫无价值。故事的主角可能是人，但目的是升级提高，成佛成仙，成功的标准就是不成人，练级把自己的级别提高，拳头越大说话越好使，整个世界观都在强调出身，背景，师承关系，血统。什么个人努力，历史进程都关系不大。\n雄狮少年：普通人的拼搏故事\n雄狮中的阿娟就是我们普罗大众中的一员，他在逆境的野蛮成长，面临生活中的一座座大山，正是普通人时刻面对的周遭，更值得借鉴，更直戳人心。\n它不是那种“我生来就强大，你别看不起我，总有一天我会打败你”的爽片，天才叙事看起来爽但现实中实在太少见了；它是那种“我是一点都不强大的小草，你可以欺负我看不起我，但我依然坚韧活着”，这是属于千万普通人的拼搏故事，是无数努力改命的小镇青年能共情的故事。\n影片并未俗套地赋予阿娟一个格斗之夜总冠军的高光，更多是让我们看到无论胜负，始终坚守初心，真诚、善良又坚韧的阿娟。\n动画电影就不要看它的剧情了，只要画面够好就行，也是一种观点。视觉上的冲击带来的快感相对短暂，出了电影院不久就消散了，但是有深度的故事，会一直激励人心。本人看魔童 2 最触动的还是天元鼎中的李夫人，毕竟同为人父母。\n票房败北\n雄狮最被人诟病的是迎合西方种族化审美的的东方眯眯眼，这点上从主角形象设定上确实有问题，尤其是瞳距。往正面上说上天是主创团队用一个自以为雅的审美来打动观众，那是白瞎了，观众不会有代入感，没有人想长成几位主角的样子，掏钱包的人自然就少了，顺带白瞎了一部精细的国漫作品。\n创作对比\n画面水准\n每一个重磅国产动画IP，在制作和技术层面，都会下足功夫做出创新突破，从而惠及后来的创作者和整个动画产业。\n哪吒 2 比哪吒 1 优秀很多，实至名归，超燃的场景，酷炫的粒子特效。但雄狮少年2 让人惊艳的是招式扎实，现场感十足，从分镜到最终画面精细的让人咋舌，为了再现自然的动态肌肉感，主创用一年时间自主研发升级肌肉特效系统，细致还原了人体每一块肌肉、筋膜和皮肤的动态。连街景都努力还原，这也非常不容易。\n\n\n情绪宣泄\n\n印度电影爱跳舞，美国电影爱炸自由女神，不代表对错，就是观众爱看。「故事共鸣」为观众的首要消费需求\n\n哪吒 2 充斥充斥着炽热的爱、强烈的恨、放纵的笑和催人泪下的“痛”，且这些情绪都有具象的对应物，整部电影的情绪供给可谓“量大管饱”。而这些情绪的主要根源是反派无量仙翁。他道貌岸然，虚伪残忍，屠戮无辜，他越强大，就越可恨，越残忍，就越可杀，越能让观众沉浸其中。\n雄狮少年2的反派却过于疲软，一个是傲慢跋扈、比赛作弊的拳手，一个是抢走练武场、网络抹黑主角的资本力量，他们不杀人放火、不巧取豪夺，也没对主角造成实质性伤害。他们的代名词只是冰冷的生活本身，是贫富的压力、世道的艰险与人生的困顿。他们是抽象的、模糊的、复杂的，无法像无量仙翁那样，成为一个明确的靶子，供观众的情绪枪口一致朝前。\n当哪吒声嘶力竭地喊出“我活不活无所谓，我只要你死”时，阿娟打出的口号却是“战胜偏见和自己”。在当下的电影市场语境里，没有人想要战胜自己，我们只想战胜敌人。\nIP 鸿沟\nIP与IP之间，也有某种“鸿沟”，而这种“鸿沟”，或许从起点就影响了作品的命运。\n以《哪吒2》和《雄狮少年2》来说，前者有原生IP“哪吒”这一超人气神话英雄为其背书，选择耳熟能详的历史或神话人物，进行故事新编，是一种相对稳妥的策略。后者则没有，近乎纯粹的原创，另外受众还需考虑年轻甚至儿童观影群体\n再者，《哪吒2》与《雄狮少年2》还有一个题材方面的IP“鸿沟”：一个是奇幻神话，一个是社会现实。书写当下社会现实的动画，鲜有商业上大卖的例子。动画从诞生之初便与幻想、夸张、变形等艺术语言紧密相连。传统认知中，动画常被视为“造梦工具”，观众更期待通过动画逃离现实。如果要剖析现实，我为什么不看一部真人出演的电影呢？\n现实主义动画在直面社会问题时难免会引发争议，而神话传说题材因文化安全性和普适性更易被接受。\n市场惯性、创作难度与受众认知的多重夹击，造成了诸如《雄狮少年》此类现实主义动画的市场困境。\n艺术探索 vs 大众市场\n如上两点在掀起国漫复兴的序幕《大圣归来》导演田晓鹏的新作品《深海》上体现的也非常明显，一个大赚一个赔钱。\n\n\n\n维度\n大圣归来\n深海\n头脑特工队 2\n\n\n\n\n题材受众\n经典 IP 改编\n原创故事+抑郁症心理议题（小众）\n对人的意识情绪，进行动画处理\n\n\n叙事风格\n线性英雄成长（易懂热血）\n意识流+梦境隐喻（需深度解读）\n\n\n\n情感基调\n光明向的自我救赎\n压抑的创伤疗愈预告片强化奇幻冒险吸引合家欢观众与内容错配\n\n\n\n情绪宣泄\n妖王炼化童男童女，几次伤及江流儿性命，是必欲除之而后快的大恶之人\n敏感抑郁的小女孩的梦境，几乎没有奸恶的反派和具象的情绪供给\n癫狂的反派&quot;焦虑&quot;，从形象设定到故事浅显度，都比深海梦境式的漫游历险，更为具象更为让观众代入。\n\n\n\n莫要在商业片里灌些文艺片的内核。90%的人玩艺术，就是要证明自己不是一般人。因为要证明自己不是一般人，艺术就必须像皇帝的新衣一样，让普通人看不到，看不懂，这是一种浅入深出 / 深入深出的不高明方式，算不得「大家」。别人质疑，就回怼：你不懂艺术，可多数并不能经受住时间的考验。但我相信雄狮（抛开眼距眼型设计）称得上原创动画的精品之作，就如电影结尾段台词中提及的「让时间去证明一切吧」。\n引用参考\n1.搜狐 8000万与90亿，雄狮少年与哪吒的命运为何这般天壤之别 ↩","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["影视"]},{"title":"哲学与哲理","url":"/%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%8E%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86.html","content":"\n哲学\n三大要素\n\n存在（本质）\n认知（本源）\n价值（本意）\n\n对此三大基本问题的探讨是人类智慧和思考的结果，涉及到人类思考和理解世界的方式，并探究生命的意义和目的。\n\n唯心派的三个哲学问题\n\n\n我是谁？\n\n\n我从哪里来？\n\n\n我要到哪里去\n\n\n\n贫僧唐三藏，从东土大唐而来，去往西天拜佛取经\n\n唯物的三个哲学问题\n\n\n如何更好的认识宇宙世界、并解决关于宇宙的问题。\n\n\n如何更好的认识人类社会、并解决关于人类的问题。\n\n\n如何更好的认识自我人生、并解决关于人生的问题。\n\n\n复杂又简单\n托尔斯泰写过一则小寓言，说有一个国王每天都在思考三个最最终极的哲学问题： 在这个世界上：\n\n\n什么人最重要？\n\n\n什么事最重要？\n\n\n什么时间做事最重要？\n\n\n举朝大臣，没人能够回答得出来。后被一个老农解答：\n\n\n最重要的人：就是眼下需要你帮助的人\n\n\n最重要的事：就是马上去做\n\n\n最重要的时间：就是当下，一点不能拖延\n\n\n哲理与哲学的区别\n二者有本质上的区别。哲学是关于思维规律的研究，而哲理是研究处事学问。\n\n一般来说，哲学是有系统，知行合一的。\n哲理，狭义上只是哲学体系内的定理或推论。把道理走出来，某个哲理可能会上升为你的人生哲学。\n\n哲学的目的\n从 20 世纪兴起的语言分析哲学，开启对传统形而上学的终结，摒弃传统哲学总想建造一座大厦，用理论体系解释一切的构想。认为哲学的核心功能是解构困境，而不是提供终极答案的学科。\n从路德维希-维特根斯坦的角度，哲学的目的是给困在玻璃瓶中的是苍蝇指出一条飞出的路。哲学应该是清理场地，就像擦玻璃一样，擦掉语言和思维上的污渍，比如概念的混淆和误用，让我们看清问题本身。\n很多人的困扰，常不是来源于现实，而是来自于语言和思维方式，例如觉得自己工作没价值，人生没意义，无法找到真正的自我等。但同时很多人并不知道，什么是价值，意义、自我，这些概念是高度抽象的。\n我们产生了真实的困扰，不是这些困扰真实存在，而是我们困在了自己的语言和思维里。就像苍蝇并不是没有飞翔的能力，只是被困在了玻璃瓶中，看得见光亮，以为有出路，反复撞向**玻璃瓶（认知困境）**却找不到真正的出口，最后在无效的挣扎中陷入迷茫和痛苦，这是很多人的人生状态。\n日常有人反复纠结&quot;我必须完美&quot;才能被爱，反复因为不够完美而痛苦，这不是&quot;不完美&quot;本身的问题。人类的很多痛苦和困惑不是来自世界的复杂，而是我们用错误的方式去理解世界。\n就像有人因『人生的意义是什么』而焦虑，哲学不会说『人生的意义是 xxx』，而是会问：你是否把『意义』当成一个必须找到的『实体』，就像找一把丢失的钥匙。如果意义本就是自己赋予的，那么你纠结的是『必须找到一个别人认可的意义』，这才是你的『瓶子』。\n语言分析哲学的总结\n哲学不是直接给我们『如何生活』，『世界是什么』的标准和终极答案，而是帮我们看清『困住我们的瓶子』是什么，让我们有机会停下无效挣扎，找到跳出框架的可能。\n哪怕哲学的世界本质问题、当你用错误的语言逻辑、僵化的概念去追问时，才会导致问题无解，而不是问题本身无解。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"唯品会的生存之门","url":"/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html","content":"\n从「中国最大名牌折扣网」到「一家专门做特卖的网站」\n线下品牌商对未来的款式及库存的预估是很粗放的，导致唯品会的模式对它们有巨大的价值\n当大家在讨论唯品会变数时，同事非常快速的发出精准专业化的表述，点中了要害，不由得佩服。\n当在大数据分析基础上&amp;创新性的CMS系统出现，或许才能一改当前线下粗放的特征。但 CMS和大数据，都不捏在品牌商手里，品牌商从来不是建设IT系统的精兵，却是渠道及门店的强将。\n自己一直在锻炼技术领域的专业透视能力及表达技巧，对业务的分析表述的确很差火候，但二者有相同之处，优秀的跨界，也是互联网时代的魅力。正向来看，自己有很大的成长空间，不错。\nPS：个人不看好唯品会的长期发展，没有绝对的杀手锏门槛，在AJ两家电商巨头转身来大力搞这个时，特别是J，唯品会的神话或许几年后就成为追忆。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["IT","行业"]},{"title":"回望2020","url":"/%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B2020.html","content":"\n魔幻的2020\n2020在近代史上定有一笔，全球肺炎疫情，地球村给干成了不相往来。从2019年底先在武汉流行，西方一顿喷，到中国动用集权政府的强大组织能力，生生给压了下去，成为首个从肺炎流行中脱离迈入常态化的国家。\n作为地球上的寄生虫的人类，这场病毒要么是地球用来自我清理的，要么是人为制造生物攻击却失控的，总之，口罩是带了一年，很多人也美了一年。随着北半球冬季的来临，有继续加重和重流行的可能，希望各位国人都能过个平安喜乐的春节。\n这一年中上演了各种美好与丑恶，有代际冲突，有全国一心，有传媒控制，有叛国出卖，有人发国难财，有人赔的底掉，年初没有货发，年终货发不出去（集装箱大排队）。直播带货成为风口，年底又干出了社区团购，却给官方戴上紧箍咒，说资本无序创新，却不看星辰大海。\n\n疫情伊始，远程办公，对于各家公司的IT基础设施大为挑战，对管理能力也大为挑战。环比中验出了互联网的组织能力还是更高，企业文化也更胜一筹（对雇员来说）。无聊经济和电子商务，都在今年赚的盆满钵满。疫情封锁刚刚告一段落，有人就思考了工作的意义，选择与旧岗位告别，更多人是选择规避风险敞口，再走走看。今年对多数公司是艰难的一年，对多数打工人同样也是。\n川建国经济干的漂亮，可没控制好疫情，连任无望，但一年中让中国感受到了科技卡脖子的力量，荣耀从华为中拆分，我看凶多吉少，时代浪潮就那么残酷，大厂的人别以为在什么平台都是一等一的好手。\n又进入风象元素时代\n\n国内的离火九运即将开始于2024年，也是宣称将开启与旧时代趋势的一些告别，新趋势风潮和这个风象时代描述近似\n\n从星象学上来说，土木合相从1980年应该就进入了风元素时代了，只是2000~2020又在土元素时代（金牛座）游了一波，这20年里文化比较废，不似人才辈出的1980年代。20年末，土木合相又进入水瓶座的区间，不回头的迈入到风元素周期，大概要延续到2159年。\n土元素时代重资源物质，风元素时代重信息沟通。暗合计算机产业，互联网产业的爆发，也暗合金融创新，时代使然，今后的20年互联网科技肯定继续突进。\n\n\n土：工业运营，物资，资源\n\n\n风：信息，传播，思想，沟通\n\n\n从细分上来说，前10年受木星影响\n\n1920年的咆哮风格，1940年的帝国扩张及跨越边界，1960年的享乐主义，1980年的雅皮士\n\n后10年，土星的衰退，修整和计划又重新占据主导。在2020-2030这十年间，继续绚烂的疯狂，是大概率事件\n历史上的元素周期时代\n\n上一次土木合相水瓶还在1226，与2020的这次，都带来一些&quot;不好&quot;的事件\n\ntimeline\n    title 元素时代周期(一)\n    section 奴隶封建社会\n        BC1017 ~ BC779【水】 : 空\n        BC779 ~ BC580【火】 : -770 春秋开始\n        BC580 ~ BC402【土】 : -475 战国开始\n        : -403 三家分晋\n        BC402 ~ BC223【风】 : -359商鞅变法 \n    section 华夏第一帝国\n    \t\tBC223 ~ AD15【水】 : -221秦一统\n        : -140 汉武登基\n         : 8 王莽新朝\n        15 ~ 214【火】 : 25 东汉伊始\n        : 105 造纸\n         : 121 说文解字\n         : 184 黄巾之乱\n         : 164-190 瓷器发明\n        214 ~ 392【土】 : 214 刘备入益州\n        : 220 魏代汉\n        : 221 刘备称帝\n        : 280 三分归晋\n        : 291 八王之乱\n        : 317 东晋立/十六国\n        : 383 淝水之战\n        392 ~ 571【风】 : 420 东晋亡，南北朝（宋齐梁陈）\ntimeline\n    title 元素时代周期(二)\n    section 华夏第二帝国\n    \t571 ~ 809【水】: 隋唐盛世\n        : 577 北周灭北齐 \n        : 626 玄武门之变\n        : 630 唐太宗天可汗\n        : 755 安史之乱\n        : 806 唐宪宗即位，元和中兴\n        809 ~ 1008【火】: 黄巢之乱\n        : 五代十国\n        : 960 宋建立\n        : 1004 檀渊之盟\n        1008 ~ 1186【土】: 活字印刷\n        1186 ~ 1365【风】: 1127 靖康耻，南宋立\n        : 1226 **土木合相水瓶**,蒙古崛起\n        : 1279 南宋灭\n        : 1337 英法百年战争开始\n     section 大航海时代\n     \t1365 ~ 1603【水-238年】: 文艺复兴\n     \t: 大航海\n     \t: 1405 郑和下西洋\n     \t: 1421 明迁都北京\n     \t: 1425 土木合相天蝎\n     \t: 1572 张居正改革\n     \t: 1588 西班牙无敌舰队惨败\n     \t: 1598 法国宗教战争结束\n     \t: 1600 东印度公司成立\n     \t: 1603 伊丽莎白1世去世，斯图亚特王朝开始，苏格兰/英格兰共戴一君\n     \t1603 ~ 1802【火-199年】: 殖民地\n     \t: 万有引力\n     \t: 1799 乾隆驾崩\n     \tsection 近现代\n     \t1802 ~ 1980【土-178年】: 1804 拿破仑称帝\n     \t: 各种独立战争，革命\n     \t: 科技爆发\n     \t1980 ~ 2159【风-179年】: 互联网\n     \t: 2020 **土木合于水瓶**，新冠\n     \t: 2000-2020 在土象金牛，文化比较颓\n近几年\n2018\n年在变动之际，去了几个网红城市，厦门，西南二城，成都重庆。厦门有南方特色，温润舒服，重庆更魔幻，成都如饮茶，平淡宜居。\n2019\n2019 4月去北京参加Qcon会，记错飞机时间差点赶不上，会议结束之际，去了天津一睹风采，夜晚商业民俗一条街早早关门，颇感失望，但天津真是一个气候文化和北京迥异的地方。\n5月底去青海甘肃来了一圈，领略了西北风光，卸去了高节奏的枷锁，西部是片可以让人放空，离心灵更近的天地。\n国庆假期带刚上幼儿园的男仔上了南岳衡山，是一份深刻的记忆，我对拥有这么一个男娃感到欣慰，除了扛他上山，今后还有长路在肩，如何引导和呵护他的发展，他的下限不会差，但上限能去到哪，一生能否快快乐乐，虽有平常心，亦任重道远。\n冬季随家人闪现网红城市，西安，就住在鼓楼商业区附近的特色小旅馆里，没那么多时间去逛博物馆标杆历史景点啊，选择去了交通成本不太高的大唐芙蓉园，陪着家人同行，不那么累，是一种莫大的幸福吧\n2020\n这个疫情年，除了驾车回老家，未远行，走走亲友大家也都是无惧病毒风险。2020个人与以往突破最多的是，对于非技术领域的阅读和领略。看书不算少，尤其是传记类的原来不愿碰的，都啃完了，受益匪浅，遗憾没早些年听技术总监的话去读传记，但我能技术持续深入掌握精髓，也离不开那时的那股愣头劲吧。看书且更愿意做下笔记。对于讲一个概念更能形象化的给出类比。对于组织的培训，有更客观的看待与珍惜，且会更留意教师的授课技巧和风格，体悟体系化的知识对于经验的转化率和传承性的作用。应该做培训是今后的一种职业出路。\n2020与来自蚂蚁的前同事侃天说地，了解了蚂蚁风波的核心问题，感叹总理同事多金仍怀揣大梦想。大学同事也有自己出来当老板开干的，我未到时候，甘愿当个干饭打工人，说实在的在资源型社会除了这副皮囊也没有什么拿得出手的核心资源。对于选择大于努力的大原则明确的太晚，落在后面，愿它是一场长跑…\n体重继续慢速攀升，仍有晚睡的差习惯，现在在体重平台期。表哥用自己减重成功的成绩现身说法，刺激了自己对减重的期待（实际还是体检结果在刺激，毛病越来越多），一些无趣的运动，自己是坚持不下来的。实践管住嘴，成为必由之路（读研时期有效果），相信在2021年会有收获。\n新年展望\n2021，体重稳步下降，重在可喜的趋势，这里就不立什么FLAG了\n2021，团队管理工作继续开悟，形成更体系化的知识，更能把一个事情本质浅显的讲明白。AI中台建设成果落地开花，给予团队成员成就感\n2021，更懂理财\n2021，老房子翻新装潢下，愿家庭生活和谐健康\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["时代","日记","周期"]},{"title":"文件-块-对象存储的区别","url":"/%E5%9D%97-%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6-%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8.html","content":"\n开门见山\n\n\n\n对比项\n文件存储NAS\n对象存储\n块存储\n\n\n\n\n共享访问\n多台ECS（千级别上限）同时挂载，并发访问同一个文件系统\n客户端（百万级别上限）向同一个存储空间并发上传下载文件\n单台ECS通过POSIX接口访问\n\n\n操作对象\n文件和文件夹\n依软件系统而定，常见亦是文件\n磁盘\n\n\n协议接口\nPOSIX/NFS/SMB/MPI 注重接口灵活及访问权控制（Lookup/Access/Read/Write/Create/Remove/Rename/MkDir/RmDir/ReadDir等等）\nRESTful/SDK/客户端PUT/GET/DELETE，更注重简洁\n格式化后支持POSIX协议Read/Write/Read Capacity/Inquiry，更注重传输控制\n\n\n读写模式\n随机读写\n顺序读写\n随机读写\n\n\n存储结构\n目录树\n扁平结构\n格式化后支持目录树\n\n\n最大容量\n10PB\n无限\n32TB\n\n\n时延\n低时延（毫秒级）\n较低时延（几十毫秒级）\n极低时延（微秒级）\n\n\n吞吐\n数百Gbps\n数百Gbps\n数十Gbps\n\n\n用户\n自然人\n计算机软件\n可读写块设备的软件系统，如文件系统，数据库\n\n\n\n\n\nNAS\n将存储作为网络文件系统公开，当设备附加到NAS系统时，将显示一个挂载文件系统，用户可使用适当的访问权限访问其文件。对NAS的访问通过NFS和SMB/CIFS协议进行处理。与任何服务器和存储解决方案一样，文件系统负责在NAS中定位文件，这对于数十万甚至数百万文件非常有效，但对于数十亿的文件就不行了。\n块存储\n\n这些玩意-磁带，光盘，软盘 都是块存储\n哪些块组成一个文件，哪些块记录的是目录/子目录信息，这是文件系统的事情\n\n弹性块存储采用三副本分布机制可靠性高；本地存储即本地盘，是指云服务器ECS所在宿主机上的本地硬盘。无论是弹性块存储还是本地块存储，一般用于服务器系统盘或数据盘使用。\n块存储EBS是裸磁盘，挂载到ECS后不能被操作系统应用直接访问，需要格式化成文件系统（ext3、ext4、NTFS等）后才能被访问。块存储EBS的优势是性能高、时延低，适合于OLTP数据库、NoSQL数据库等IO密集型的高性能、低时延应用工作负载。但是块存储EBS无法容量弹性扩展，单盘最大只能32TB，并且对共享访问的支持有限，需要配合类Oracle RAC、WSFC Windows故障转移集群等集群管理软件才能进行共享访问。因此，块存储EBS主要还是针对单ECS的高性能，低时延的存储产品\nNAS和块存储都需要实现用户访问权限的功能，以便对数据进行修改。\n对象存储\n之所以出现对象存储这种东西，是对块存储与文件存储的扬长避短。简单来说，块存储读写快，不利于共享；文件存储读写慢，利于共享。\n\n能否搞一个读写块，利于共享的出来呢？这就是对象存储了。\n另外文件存储的树状结构以及路径访问方式虽然方便人类理解、记忆和访问，但计算机需要把路径进行分解，然后逐级向下查找，最后才能查找到需要的文件，对于应用程序来说既没必要，也很浪费性能。\n\n对象存储最常见解决方案，就是多台服务器内置大容量硬盘，再装上对象存储软件，然后再额外搞几台服务作为管理节点，安装上对象存储管理软件，管理节点可管理其它服务器对外提供读写访问功能。\n以往像FAT32这种文件系统，文件数据和文件Metadata一起存储。存储过程先将文件按照文件系统的最小块大小来打散（如4M的文件，建设一个块4K，那么将文件打散成1000个小块），再写进硬盘里，每个块最后会告知你下一个读取的块的地址，一直这样按图索骥，最后完成整份文件所有块的读取。这种清咖滚下，读写速率很慢，因为就算你有100个机械臂在读写，但只有读到第一个块，才知道下一个块在哪里，相当于只有一个机械臂在实际工作。\n对象存储将原数据独立出去，控制节点叫元数据服务器（服务器+对象存储管理软件），还有专门负责存储数据的分布式服务器。当访问文件对象，元数据服务器反馈对象存储在哪些数据节点，当有多台数据节点同时对外传输数据时，读取速度就加块了。当数据节点服务器数量越多，读写速度提升就越大，继而达到读写加快的目的。\n对象存储的关键概念\n存储空间（Bucket）\n所有对象必隶属于某个存储空间，存储空间有各种配置属性，包括地域、访问权限、存储类型等。用户可根据实际需求，创建不同类型存储空间来存储不同的数据\n对象（Object）\n是存储数据的基本单元，对象没有文件目录层级结构的关系，由元信息（Object Meta）、用户数据（User Meta）和文件（Data）组成，并有存储空间内部唯一的 Key 来标识。\nAccessKey/SecretKey（秘钥）\n对象存储颁发的秘钥，用于鉴权（如用该秘钥用 HmacSHA256 算法来生成访问令牌或签名）\n如何提升访问安全性\n\n不要签名要素均在请求链接里，而是分布在请求链接和请求头中，链接泄露不会造成文件泄露。\n仅使用常见的 accessKey、secretKey无法构造有效请求，增加参数量构成（如 Appid，终端用户标识，…），与业界常见设计造成一定区隔。签名注册必须由后台系统来完成\n签名的有效期的常规设计自不必说\n设计链接有效次数，即使合法的请求者，也只能访问有限次\n\n说的这么牛，咋不上天一统江湖\n\n一类应用需存储直接磁盘映射，如数据库，为性能计，为历史资产继承计。\n对象存储在非海量场景，成本还是较文件存储高，如需买专门的对象存储软件和大容量硬盘。\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["存储"]},{"title":"城市用电量大数据","url":"/%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E9%87%8F%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html","content":"\n第七次人口普查数据出来了，发布的信息都是政府早就知道的，我曾经问上门普查的女民警，她也不说不出普查的实际意义，可惜养了一堆干简单活的公务员。\n通过大数据的手段人口总量啊，人口分段分层啊，早就大差不大。普查也就实际对在籍的人口常住流动做一个精确的摸底，决定后续三四线的财政投资和政策投资动向吧。在智慧政务或治理层面，估计中国是远超世界一众国家的（后来者的建设优势），通过各项大数据，讲将一眼透视各地的发展特征。\n用电大数据\n工业社会/城市化，用电量是一个直观的指标，但指标的解读一样要注意多面立体化。\n\n工业用电量的增长，与城市经济发展密切相关（第二产业大市就是用电量大市）；\n生活用电更多地会受到气候变化影响；\n人均用电高的多是资源型城市，三产经济占比低，人均指标无法衡量经济运行质量。\n\n2017市区用电量\n\n)\n\n\n市区用电总和方面，北，上，深，天津（工业用电&gt;广州），广州位居前五，上海高过北京接近50%，第六是重庆\n奇妙的是苏州，位列第七。超过一众省会城市。苏州GDP高（市区全国第12，全市全国第7），产业结构偏向现代工业和制造业。按全市口径（非仅限市区），2016年苏州用电量占江苏1/4，是我国用电量第二大的城市。\n地域上三线城市用电量高度集中在山东半岛，珠三角，长三角。京津冀的城市发展还是不均衡（Top 30有2座，珠长各有6座，山东甚至有7座）\n\n\n工业用电\n上海，天津，重庆，东莞（深圳产业转移助推），深圳，唐山（承接北京高耗能转移），苏州，广州。北京压缩高耗能如愿，只排到第六\n生活用电\n靠消费水平及人口基数决定。上海，北京，广州，深圳，Top20的城市人口多超过500w，市区人口少（低于400w）而生活用电较高的有长沙，福州，厦门，这三座对夜生活喜爱啊\n三产，公共服务及其它用电\n北京超过上海位列第一，更多的机关，古迹维护让北京承担了更多的电力支出。\n很多工业用电大市明显靠后，主因还是三产经济贡献低，城市建设和公共服务仍有较大提升空间.\n人均方面，人口少的资源或旅游城市就靠前了（有钱任性&amp;旅游装扮）\n人均用电量\n\n没有任何省会城市进入TOP20，上海和南京甚至进不了TOP50\n\n用电指标在人均这个数值上，无法全面衡量经济运行的“质量”。\n服务业更节能\n一般是三产占比较低的工业尤其是制造业城市，也有不少是资源型城市，如嘉峪关（铁）、攀枝花（铁）、黑河（金、铜）、抚顺（煤）、百色（铝）等城市，冶金、铸造均会消耗大量电力，但就经济发展、就业率等方面的贡献来说不如三产密度高的城市大，反而成为调结构压产能的对象。\n\n气候因素\n人均生活用电方面，除了受到居民生活水平影响之外，更多的还会受到地域气候、生活作息、取暖方式等因素影响，如福州、长沙、珠海、三亚等气候炎热、夜生活相对丰富的城市生活用电量均居于前列，黑龙江的黑河、双鸭山人均用电量也均位居全国前十。而华北、华东区域用电量则相对较少一些，如北京、上海、南京、济南人均生活用电量均在800千瓦时左右。\n资源城市不差钱，旅游城市铆劲亮\n三产、公共服务及其他用电方面，人口较少的资源型、旅游城市则往往会占优，如白银、张掖、石嘴山等资源型城市即居于全国前三，三亚排在了第四的位置。\n\n不懂南阳为什么那么高，是在用民电磨玉石么？\n\n\n人均工业用电增速\n我国城市市区规划变化较大，尤其省会城市为了加速城市边界扩张和带动周边发展，常常会撤县设区，因此计算市区百分比增速数据会严重失真，指标方面人均工业用电量的实际增量会更有指导意义。人均工业用电量的增长更会是“有质量“地增长，更与经济发展息息相关。人均工业用电量正增长的重点城市，其人均GDP增量也大多居于全国前列的位置。\n\n在全国GDP增量TOP10城市中，除深圳外工业用电量均为正增长，深圳在腾笼换鸟调结构，总部经济明显，收益很大。\n结语呼应\n\n用电量总量高的城市更多的是人口大市\n人均用电量高的城市更多的是资源型城市或重工业城市\n增长指标而言，工业用电量的增长（生活用电更多地会受到气候变化影响）是实体经济发展的重要参考指标\n\n参考\n1.克而瑞 大数据|如何正确看待城市用电量指标 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["地理"]},{"title":"堆排序与归并排序","url":"/%E5%A0%86%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F.html","content":"大家最常见的就是用数组这一数据结构来记录一系列有序或无序的数据。\n堆排序\nHeap\n\n此文讲的堆和堆内存不是一个概念。属于大家都形而上的用了这个英文词来描述自己的领域概念。\n\n完全二叉树\n\n叶子结点只出现在最下层和次下层（所有分支长度几乎相同，最长分支最短分支差异最多为1），最下层节点都集中在最左边若干位置的二叉树\n\n堆也是一颗完全二叉树，举例如下无序数组：$\\begin{bmatrix}4 &amp;5 &amp;3 &amp;2 &amp;6 &amp;1 \\end{bmatrix}$。表示为完全二叉树的形式为\n\n基于完全二叉树的基本性质，可从数组索引角度描述数字与数字在二叉树中的位置关系，堆的结构性要求其为完全二叉树，就为了使用此好特性好结论\n\n$A_i$ 的左节点为 $A_{2i+1}$\n右节点为$A_{2i+2}$\n父节点为 $A_{i/2}$\n\nFull vs Complete vs Perfect\n\n\n二叉树通常用链表通过指针实现。堆的“(almost)-complete”属性及所有非叶子节点也是数值节点，对于将其实现为数组非常有用。堆为完全二叉树，我们可使用位置来确定哪个节点是哪个节点的子节点，i，2i+1，2i+2。\n\nalmost-complete 和 complete是一个意思\nfull binary tree 要求只要你有孩子，就必然是有两个孩子，但不要求所有长短分支差异最多为1的约束，也不要求孩子在最左边位置优先集中\n\n堆序性\n堆序性，通俗点也是说，父节点中的元素不小于（不大于）任意子节点的元素。\n我们举例大根堆，一个节点元素在其子树所有元素组成的集合中必定是最大值。\n\n如下3个，都是符合定义的大根堆\n\n\n具体实现\n\n根据无序数组创建一个大根堆，不断调整大根堆，使其达到有序。\n\n堆排序是一种算法，可归纳为2个步骤：\n\n将输入数组转换为堆 – 初始堆排序\n将堆转换为排序数组 – 堆排序输出\n\n交换-下沉\n将根元素与最后一个叶子节点元素交换位置，这样做产生了两个后果：\n\n\n最大值6被挑选出来，置于数组的末位 （1和6换位置）【首尾交换】\n\n\n根节点元素1打乱了堆序性\n\n\n其中第2点不是我们希望的结果，那就重复做这个过程（此时，尾部元素6不参与任何交换位置操作，已经是最终位置，且它确定是最大值，后续的二叉树可以将元素6排除在外）【元素下沉】\n\n每次堆顶元素与数组尾部元素互换后，我们要处理生成最大堆树的节点数据都会减一\n\n\n\n通过重复提取最大元素，在$\\mathcal{O}(n\\log(n))$的复杂度下，可轻松使用它生成排序数组（提取的元素放置在数组末尾，不再参与下一轮的堆处理中）。\n这一点上，大根堆实现数组从小到大排序；小根堆实现数组从大到小排序。\n概念Tips\n堆本身不是排序数组\n原始数组\n[9,7,3,5,4,2,0,6,8,1]\n转换成 堆\n[0,1,2,5,4,9,3,6,8,7]\n而排序数组是\n[0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]\n堆看上去元素顺序看起来不像原始数组中那样随机，但它们没有完全排序。\n堆形式并不是唯一的\n\n对于给定的无序数组，根据算法的叶子节点左右大小设定不同，可以构建出多个大根堆，即可以生成的大根堆并不是唯一的\n\n上段中的数组，转换成堆不止一种形式\n       0      /      \\     1        2 （这里2，1左右互换，也是符合堆的含义的）   /   \\     / \\  5     4   9   3 / \\   / \\ / \\ / \\6   8 7\n归并排序\n兄弟排序算法\n\n冒泡排序和选择排序，是最好理解最容易实现的两种排序算法。\n\n\n\n冒泡：交换相邻两个元素，将最大元素升至最后位置（像水中的冒泡）\n\n\n选择：遍历所有元素，选出最小的 ，放在排序序列头部，然后再从未排序元素中继续寻找最小的，放到已排序序列末位，以此类推直至排好所有元素（这点的一个个来，和堆排序有那么一点神似）\n\n\n\n这二位相较于其他排序算法，除了易于理解外，并无任何优势，所以在实际开发或类库中，基本没人用。\n\n\n\n插入排序，像打扑克牌，核心是将某个元素插到合适位置，该元素后所有元素都后移一个位置（比较和挪动到抽牌处为止）。适用场景为大部分数据近乎有序。如原始数据根据订单完成时间排序，现需要根据订单发起时间排序，这样每个元素就能很快挪到正确位置。这个动图比较形象 插入排序动图\n\n\n快速排序是最快的的通用排序算法，多数情况下，都适合适用快速排序。\n\n\n外部排序的选择\n归并排序：将已排好序的两部分进行归并（合在一起），动图的话观看 归并排序动图\n当待排序的文件超过内存可使用容量，文件无法一次性放到内存中进行排序，需要借助外部存储器，称为外部排序。外部排序算法由两个阶段构成，类比为Map-Reduce过程也合适\n\n按内存大小，将大文件分成若干子文件，将各子文件依次读入内存，适用恰当的内部排序算法对其进行排序，将排好序的归并段重新写入外存，为下一个子文件排序腾出内存空间\n对得到的顺序段进行合并，直至得到整个有序文件位置。\n\n例如含有1w个记录的文件，内存可使用容量仅为1k个记录，毫无疑问需要使用外部排序算法（可以看作是选择排序的组合版）。\n\n实际归并过程中，由于内存容量限制不能满足同时将2个归并段全部完整的读入内存进行归并，只能不断取2个归并段中的每一小部分进行归并，通过不断读取数据和向外写数据，直至2个归并段完成归并成1个大的有序文件。\n\n\n多路归并\n堆外部排序算法来说，影响整体排序效率的因素主要为读写外存的次数，即访问外存越多，花的时间也越多。\n简单来看，访问外存的次数同归并次数成正比（每次归并都要在外存中暂存结果），两个角度可助力提高算法效率\n\n\n减少初始归并段的数量m，即增加每个归并段(小文件)的容量\n\n\n增加k-路同行归并的段数\n\n\n因此在m个初始段下，提高归并时参与的段数，可以加快效率。这也是多路归并的由来\n多路举例\n\n2路归并\n\n\n\n5路归并\n\n\n归并路数扩大的弊端\n无限度增加K值，虽会减少读写外存数据的次数，但会增加内部归并的时间。\n\n2路归并，每次从2个文件中得到一个最小值只需比一次，5路归并时要比4次。\n\n如要得到整个临时文件，耗费的时间就会相差很大，如何同等参数下优化算法缩减比较次数（耗时）呢？\n算法优化登场\n结论先行\n\n最小堆 $\\Rightarrow$ 胜者树 $\\longrightarrow$ 败者树\n\n首先选择用来做外部排序优化的是最小堆，(小文件内部为最小堆)，它的插入和查询复杂度都是$\\mathcal{O}(\\log(n))$，可以说比较高效。不过，堆调整时，每个节点都需要和左右孩子进行比较，即需要2次比较。在不考虑块读取优化的外部排序中，也就是需要读取两次外存，能不能再优化下呢？\n树排与堆排\n二叉堆\n二叉堆除了可以应用于对一个数组进行堆排序外，还可以应用于多路归并排序中。\n\n堆排序的后半部分算法中，就是一个很明确的，多个值中选取极值，取出极值，更新根，然后修复堆的过程。在多路归并排序中，每次取出极值后，堆长度未变\n\n胜者树\n树排，全称可叫树形选择排序，因为其排序过程和体育比赛中的8进4, 4进2, 2争冠非常相似，所以树排又称为锦标赛排序，且树排中用到的树就是胜者树（8进4，4进2，2争冠嘛）\n树排算法很简单：\n\n建树。注意事项是胜者树种的节点都是原数组中的索引，而不是真实值（因为第二步要拿到冠军的索引，节点都在叶子上），然后一路向上更新胜者树\n冠军出堆，然后找到冠军的索引，将此索引处的值变成inf（要求最小），进行siftUp调整，剩余元素个数-1\n\n重复上述步骤直至剩余元素个数为0，此时按照出堆顺序就是从小到大的。\n\n胜者树的特征\n\n1. 完全二叉树 2. 每个叶子节点表示一个选手，记录选手的标号3. 每个非叶子节点表示一场比赛，记录胜者（数值小的）的标号，每层表示一轮比赛\n\n\n新插入选手（红色–来自另一个归并段的胜者），胜者树重构\n\n\n胜者树与堆的异同\n都是完全树，时间复杂度量级也一样，最大的区别就是堆的非叶子节点有包含元素，而胜者树只有叶子节点有元素，非叶子节点用来存放两个节点的胜者。由于此结构上的差异，在每次调整的时候堆分别要跟两个孩子进行两次比较，而胜者树只需要跟兄弟进行一次比较即可，效率上会高一点（路径保存了额外的信息）。\n树深度的疑问\n但大家可能有疑问，你比较次数虽然少了，但堆非叶子节点也含有原始数据，所以堆的树高度会比胜者树低，那么要调整的次数少了，综合起来是否差不多？\n请注意，大家都是完全二叉树，每增加一层，节点数目可容纳就多了一倍，因此堆的高度一般也之比胜者树矮一层，这样定性来分析，堆在高度上也只有很小的优势。\n胜者树vs败者树\n\n胜者树在内部排序有用，而败者树在外部排序的多路平衡归并中有用武之地，怎么讲？其实现在程序的主要瓶颈在于访存了，计算倒几乎可以忽略不计了，谁能在减少比较/更新次数上更胜一筹，谁将拔得头筹！这必然要重新调整数据结构设计\n\n比较胜者树与败者树的代码，非常相似，都像是一根根不断将数组中的水（数组元素）吸取上来然后吐出来，也都是完全二叉树，是树形选择排序的一种变形。\n胜者树，新元素上升时，首先需获得父节点值（内容是下标），然后再获得兄弟节点的值进行比较，相较于堆减少了一半的比较量。且因为新插入的值取代了原先的最优胜者，新值向上调整的过程中，必然要更新父节点，能不能再优化呢？\n败者树就抓住者一小点再做优化\n\n胜者树种的非叶子节点存储的是胜利的一方；而败者树非叶子节点存储的是失败的一方，而在比较过程中，都是拿胜者去比较。有一个额外指针保存当前的胜者。\n\n败者树解决了胜者树存在的弊端，只需和父节点比较一次，新插入的值向上调整中，不一定要更新【总得来说，减少了访存时间】。\n胜者树和败者树在每输出和补充一个值之后都需要自底向上调整，每上升一层都需要一次比较，败者树是和父节点的一次比较，胜者树适合兄弟的一次比较，在比较的内存次数上二者没有太大的差别。不同的是胜者树每次必然需要更新胜者（这条路径就是以原来的最终胜者为外部节点的路径，而原来的最终胜者已经被输出了），但败者树每次不一定需要更新，这代表它在每次上升时可能会少一次向内存的写入，因此更优。\n败者树工作过程\n\n如上图为一个5路归并的败者树，其中b0 ~ b4为叶子节点，分别为5个归并段中存储的记录的关键字。ls位一维数组，表示非叶子节点，存储的数值表示第几归并段（如b0就为第0归并段），ls[0]中存储的为最终胜利者，如图表示第3归并段中的值最小。\n当胜利者筛选出来后，只需要更新叶子结点b3的值，即导入15，然后让该节点不断与其父亲节点表示的值进行比较，败者留在父亲节点，胜利者继续向上比较\n\n\n为防止归并过程中某个归并段变空，处理办法通常是在每个归并段最后附件一个关键字为最大值的记录，这样当某一时刻选出冠军位为最大值时，表明所有归并段已全部归并完成。\n\n量化对比\n在堆，胜者树，败者树，空间和时间复杂度都一样，没有量级上的差别，但还是有优中选优的差异。\n堆不消多说，胜者树每次从k个组中首元素中选一个最小的值，加入到新组，都要比较k-1次，算法复杂度就是 $\\mathcal{O}((n-1)(k-1))$，而如果用败者树，可以在$\\mathcal{O}((n-1)\\log(k)$的复杂度下，得到最小的数。对于外部排序这种数据量超大的排序来说，也是一个不小的提高，故外部排序大多采用的都是败者树算法实现的【在信息爆炸的年代，海量数据大文件排序是很普遍的】。\n外排序本质上在真正排序的时候用的还是内排序的算法，毕竟CPU不能直接和外存打交道。外部排序比内排序在同等算法下要慢得多，根本原因在于IO时间相比内存和cpu交互运算时间太长，所以外部排序的算法主要集中的地方在于如何有效降低读写外存的次数，次数越多，算法效率越低，一种思路就是增加k路平衡归并中的k值。但无限增加k值，虽会减少读写外存的次数，但会增加内部归并的时间。败者树数据结构使得在增加 K 值时不会线性的影响内部归并的效率，所以成为一种优中之选。\n后记\n临近春节，把这拖拖拉拉一直放在草稿箱5个月的文稿终于可以post出来，事情结项如此拖沓，着实惭愧，清扫TODO的心境是松弛的，轻装迎接兔年。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["算法"]},{"title":"墨家从流行到没落","url":"/%E5%A2%A8%E5%AE%B6%E4%BB%8E%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%B0%E6%B2%A1%E8%90%BD.html","content":"\n墨家在战国时期曾是显学，孟子说：天下之言，不归杨，则归墨。说明当时儒家的式微，辩论赛的正方反方都没儒家什么事。\n\n杨朱：老庄分支；一毛不拔；无政府主义\n墨家：社会主义\n\n出现及与儒家的对立\n墨子「出身为有技术的奴隶」原来就是儒家门生，然而他越学越觉得不对劲，非常不认同儒家那套伪君子佶（ji）屈聱牙（礼制繁琐，丧葬耗财，守丧耽误生产），反而成为反对儒家的急先锋。列举看看与儒家有哪些对立。\n\n墨子这本书的前半部分是记录自己的哲学主张，有著名的墨家十论，除了我们熟悉的兼爱、非攻，还有尚贤，尚同，节用，节葬，天志，明鬼，非乐，非命。这已经有一些破除礼节和花费的务实主义论调，后面的章节就直接叫非儒，明摆着指着鼻子开喷。\n有一章叫公孟，记录墨子与当时一个公孟子的辩论，结果是墨子大获全胜\n\n出身造就本心不同\n春秋战国时代“士”分两种\n\n没落的贵族（孔子）\n靠自己的努力获得一定地位的社会底层的人（墨子）\n\n\n受创始人出身影响，两个派别追求的本心内容难免会不一样，墨子又非常聪明，分道扬镳也是势所必然。\n\n\n\n孔子拥护之前的社会制度，墨子想要打破束缚，建立新的社会制度\n\n\n孔子好音律，墨子却视作奢靡之物\n\n\n孔子讨厌机械之类投机取巧的物件，墨子确是著名的机械能手\n\n\n\n有关机关术\n也是有的，因其个人出身背景，比较专注于理工类知识的研究。\n墨子一书也记载墨子（守城）和鲁班（攻城）一战还是墨子胜。\n杨朱派的反对\n墨家理论比杨朱派（核心思想是全性保真）出现的要早一些，杨朱一派的产生有一部分原因就是反对墨子。杨朱是非常极端的贵己主义，墨家就是另外一个极端的道德主义，比儒家更甚。\n杨朱与老庄的不同\n老庄追求精神修养（清心寡欲），杨朱追求身体享受与自由（生命长短无意义-若不能掌握自己的时间自由，尊崇本性快乐生活才重要，贵己和唯我，爱自己第一位）\n从显学到消亡\n从如下三个角度来看，虽然也有木心老先生觉得用墨家来治国，中国早是强国，但考虑其第二点的反人性，也就是一个理想主义的泡影吧。\n从统治者角度看（外）\n墨家除了是一套哲学，他还是一个世俗化组织，足够引起统治者的戒心。\n\n墨家提倡团体生活，拥有严格的组织结构。\n墨家的领袖是终身制，整个墨家学派的成员必须严格遵守规定，他们形成了一支组织严密的军队（只听从于巨子），这支军队具有很敏捷的防御能力。\n\n统治者最怕的不是有野心的小人，恰恰是有极大号召力的君子。\n这也是位极人臣后通常有人通过各种方式给自己加污点，反而让相关的老大龙颜大悦。否则你有了能力和势力，即使你再怎么忠厚老实，也难免不被找借口问罪，墨子这种有号召力的君子做派，难为统治者所喜。\n从墨家教义角度看（内）\n成为墨家弟子，要有献身精神（视死如归）。相对于孔子食不厌精脍不厌细的生活态度，相对于道家只有少数东西不吃（五荤三厌），“衣同囚，食同丐，居如穴”，是墨家向往的生活。墨家行的是一种苦行憎般的生活，但又没有苦行僧的超脱。\n苦行僧是一种非常出世的生活态度，在忍受形而下的艰苦的同时，又能享受形而上的精神愉悦。而墨家体系中，既没有丰富的物质激励，又没有通过神秘学创建的一套精神激励，一味强调对自己的克制，一腔热血为苍生，违背了人性的本来面目。\n\n庄子在天下一书中对墨子进行了批评，认为他反天下之心（恐其不可以为圣人之道），注定无法长久。\n但墨子自己的精神世界伟大这个谁也黑不了，对此庄子又补了一句，墨子真天下之好也。\n\n这个世界所有需要大力宣传的东西，都不是真的，都不是真理，比如说人要大公无私，要奉献，要学会忍受苦难和清贫等。这些都不是人性的本质，所以才需要不断的教化。而那些从不宣传的不允许宣传的，难登大雅之堂的，甚至打压的东西才是真理，才是这个世界的本质。如没有人宣传如何自私，敛财，懒惰。\n多数人要做的，不是逃离这些最根本的人性，去接受世俗的教条，而是要深刻体会并学会利用这些人性的本质，明白这个才是大智慧，才能实现你更伟大的目标或向上跨越。\n从分裂和门人凋敝来看\n墨子在的时候能很好协调墨徒的兼容性，共同为发展做贡献。有的专门研究与其他学派进行辩论，有的专门研究如何实现兼爱，非攻，行侠仗义；有的一心专研自然之理，科学之道。\n墨子死后，从事同一方向的墨徒纷纷齐聚一方，宣扬自己才是真传。分裂为三派：\n\n楚墨为侠客代表，信义为先，坚守兼爱非攻，在底层留下良好印象。\n秦墨是科技人员的代表\n齐墨是论者的代表。\n\n分裂的墨家已不全面，自废武功，开启衰败之势。\n天下乱成一锅粥时，墨子能做到严于律己，最初的几代也能做到（然而能担当大任的人太少，就像儒家后续还有孟子荀子发展学派，墨家却没有声名赫赫的墨子带领继续发展了），且碰到天下承平之后，大家生活富足喜乐，还能剩下多少人这么苛刻的对待自己呢？\n在非攻的守城战中，视死如归也极易出现培养数十年的人才却英年早逝的情况，也是门派的损失。\n\n第三代巨子孟胜就为朋友楚阳城君看家时舍生取义（楚王要收回阳城君封地，孟胜知不可抗，但有违所托），180门徒跟随取义。\n\n儒家怎么翻身的\n秦太超前，看不得儒家的不务实\n秦只传了两代就亡了，亡就亡在秦始皇太超前了，至少领先时代100年。在他手分封制一下进入郡县制，这个过程太猛了，为了实现他做了很多功在千秋的努力，开灵渠，统一文字，度量衡，建驰道，巡视全国，要把全国统一起来。有些东西不是他一个人可以做到的，大统一需要很多技术上的进步以及制度上的改善。\n大统一王朝的巩固是在汉武帝时期\n\n\n刘邦开了点倒车搞了郡国并行制，先稳定下来，然后景帝削藩，武帝推恩令，这样天下才归于一人。\n\n\n文帝开始又搞了察举制，让地方豪强有上升通道，像项羽这样的人不至于给人家办红白喜事从而产生不满报复社会。\n\n\n汉武帝又干了打击豪强的事(没办完又退回去了)，汉武帝都没完全实现始皇帝的目标，因为门阀还在，地方豪强还控制着地方。到了唐朝门阀还很强。\n\n\n始皇帝想要的天下其实是大唐盛世这样的天下，达到这样的程度需要更多的技术，比如马镫（投放力量到四方），印刷术，纸张（传媒，普及司法，不会出现农民工被陈胜这个包工头「法盲」欺骗造反）的出现。没有这些工具，嬴政超前8百年，很难做到心中的壮举。\n汉代的特别\n战国后期荀子填法入礼，适合帝王，只是历代扬孔而隐荀不明说。儒家才在汉代被搬上舞台。\n刘邦这个泥腿子出身不行，观念，行为都很差，安排这样的人来当皇帝，是历史上少见的例子。或许正是将草根注入上层，才能破除旧规，不受贵族中流行的杨朱一派掣肘，不受墨家一派的蛊惑（当时两大显学，不过当时的统治阶级能受墨家蛊惑是不可能的），由他和他的家族来做皇帝，反正什么都不懂，才会把儒家复兴起来。\n\n来自曾仕强的一种解读，也不免有一番趣味（虽然不在他手上独尊儒术）\n\n读史的好处\n学史明理、学史增信、学史崇德、学史力行。\n我们经历的那些悲欢，其实别人早就经历过，王朝更迭中的挣扎，命运洪流里的浮沉，甚至是一场误解，一次遗憾，都能在史书中找到回声，如王安石变法成空，张居正身后倾覆，读史会明白执念终会风化，时间也从来不会为谁停留。历史从来不提供答案，但它会不断的告诉我们，眼前的山，早就有无数人爬过，太阳底下无新事，懂得的你人生也就多了一份从容。\n欲知大道，必先为史，看穿本民族迷雾。读更多族群的历史，则可看穿人类族群迷雾，有如《历史的教训》一样。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["文化"]},{"title":"大国大民地图炮","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%BD%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE%E7%82%AE.html","content":"\n优秀的执政者们，其内在逻辑往往趋同，一要高度抽象，二要抓主要矛盾。正所谓治大国如烹小鲜，这种逻辑可总结为三个中国：关键中国、敏感中国、无所谓中国，几者的区别就是心腹之患和肘腋之患的区别。什么叫关键中国，北上广，江浙，牵一发动全身，这都是执政者时刻关注的，必要时亲自抓的地方。什么叫敏感中国，如新疆西藏，虽地处边陲，但牵涉我国核心利益，战略地位很高，也是高度重视的区域，这种地方干部，非得能力与魄力并重的干将不可。什么是无所谓中国，只是相比之下没那么重要，从用人角度而言，是过渡人，检验人，锻炼人的地方。\n我们当前碰到的是辽阔，复杂，急速变化的中国，人类历史所罕见。虽然充斥碎片化的表述，但不应附以高度撕裂的情绪宣泄。成熟的一大标志是宽容与自信，我们就简要看看这块辽阔大地的些许地域风味。\n中华上半场舞台-陕西\n提到中国社会转型的重大变革，离不开周秦，强盛年代，则必称汉唐。若说周秦汉唐组成了中华文明的上半场，陕西则是上半场毋庸置疑的主舞台。概括来说，周礼，秦制、汉习、唐风，也算是陕西给中华文明的最高贡献。\n在没有发明铁器前，黏滞板结的土壤很难耕作，而北方黄图高原的疏松肥沃的黄土，特别适合我们使用石器和木器的先民。\n\n与黄土地上的农业生产活动相关的祭祀仪式，是周礼诞生的基础。分封，世袭，井田，等级观念等，都是周礼的延伸与扩展。从历史上看，陕北历来都是少数民族的地盘，也是各民族相互征战的战场，民族大融合一直都在这一地区进行着。这使得陕北地区既有农耕文化的厚重，又有游牧文化的粗犷，既有中原文化的底蕴，又有边疆文化的纹饰。\n游牧文明传承的毛病\n草原上王位传承往往采用兄终弟及，因为在草原部落联盟中，维系凝聚力的基础就是大汗个人的绝对强势，征伐频繁，若采用父死子继制，常出现主少国疑，很快分崩离析，兄终弟及实属不得已为之。但兄终弟及最大的矛盾点在于，兄弟间都是同一辈分，按最乐观的情况来假设，一代人不过区区百年。本代最后一位汗王过世后，留下的是无数虎视眈眈的皇子皇孙，除非有极强势的人物横空出世，否则一场席卷草原的大分裂将不可避免，这也是草原帝国国祚通常不满百年的重要原因。这一套政治问鼎中原， 通常混乱不可避免。\n表里山河发现山西\n五千年看山西，看的不是帝王将相，也不是亭台楼阁，而是文明的生发。宋元以降，全国经济中心逐渐南移，元末明初天下大乱中，山西获得过短暂的喘息机会，当时两淮中原一带是主战场，血流成河。而靖难之役使得华北华东硝烟密布，彼时山西，表里山河，易守难攻，独善其身，成了离乱年代的乐土。而好景不长，明朝统一后，其它各地经济凋敝，人烟稀薄，躲过一劫的山西成了全国最大的人口迁出地，洪洞大槐树自此有名。\n表里山河的封闭体系让山西人总体偏保守，两山夹出一连串断陷盆地更弱化了内部交流，曾横跨农耕，游牧两大文化区让山西人更多元，既有抠门又有豪爽，既保守又激进。百度的李彦宏很保守，融创的孙宏斌很激进，乐视的贾跃亭更激进。\n涤荡黑金盛宴心灵要点时间\n山西的黑金经济使得环境污染，经济失衡，但人心蒙尘才是真正的诅咒。三十年的黑金盛宴，影响更多的是人心，人性共通的贪婪，虚荣，侥幸，就像癌细胞一样，在利益的驱动下无限恶性增值，分布极广，荼毒极深，实现人心层面的净化，绝非一朝一夕之功。\n齐鲁之地\n齐人求工仅限于臣，鲁人求德也仅限于辅王，所以山东在历史上没出过皇帝，齐鲁可谓殊途同归，齐人总希望做的是体制内的豪杰，鲁人追求的则是循规蹈矩的圣贤，齐鲁文化构成了山东人性格的基本面。\n海上山东\n\n自明代以来，运河经济日渐衰落，以打鱼和煮盐为生的沿海荒僻之地开始勃兴，海上山东也露出雏形\n\n历代以来，中国人民其实都在远离海洋，文学上也是如此，除了曹孟德的一首《观沧海》，少有直接描写海洋的诗篇。不论是李白的海客谈瀛洲，还是苏轼的江海寄余生，更多是诗人的浪漫想象。波诡云谲的海洋往往意味着灾难和变化，所以在农耕文明的语境下，中国人对海洋一向敬而远之。\n在传统中国的九州天下观众，山东是离海洋最近的，在古代中国（从夏商周到秦汉这2千年），山东沿海区域–胶东–主导者整个中华民族的海洋观。\n治乱中原\n五味杂陈，苦辣酸甜的胡辣汤里，熬着一部千年河南史。唐朝开国百余年，皇帝待在洛阳时间长达五十多年，皇帝都戏称自己为逐粮天子，政权东迁另一个重要原因是长安缺水。\n黄泛区\n黄河于1194年（金章宗明昌5年，南宋光宗绍熙四年）向南决口，夺淮入海，河南原有的漕运系统被彻底摧毁，富饶的豫东平原成为黄泛区，从此京杭运河干脆不走河南，改走山东济宁，临清。这使得河南的地位一落千丈，加速了自北宋灭亡后的衰落之路。\n\n黄河经常淤塞河床，决堤泛滥。中央集权必须要有威望能动员所有的资源，指挥有关的人众，才可实现有效的全流域管控。当分裂时间过长，中央集权衰落，环境上就会产生极大的压力，呼唤大一统的再度出现。\n\n河南（东部）骗子，安徽（北部）乞丐，苏北苦力，山东（东南部）强盗，这四类是现代中国人之间最流行的地域歧视的受害者。他们在地理上接壤，且同属黄泛区，黄泛区带来最致命的问题，不是贫困与流离，而是不稳定。河洛大地的文明史烙印在黄河摆动的轨迹上，正是因为不知道明天和意外哪个先来，黄泛区的人们一直不太热心自家房屋的建设，时刻准备逃难，自然不会在装修和布置上花费力气，房屋和家具摆设常能看出凑合的味道。有恒产者有恒心，无恒产者无恒心，苟无恒心，放辟邪侈，无不为己。坑蒙拐骗舞刀弄枪都无所顾忌。\n安徽亳州，已很难看到过去黄泛区极不稳定的自然环境和社会环境，但这种不稳定的环境对命运的看淡，或许正是老庄思想的源头。\n农耕+灾难熬就风霜\n河南人的性格弱点中，灾难带来的不稳定性是一面，另一面是高度发达的农耕文明造就的小农意识：春种秋收导致的精明，自给自足导致的保守，格局所限导致的愚昧。无论是放辟邪侈还是小农意识，河南的问题都是中国民族性的深刻体现和浓缩。人穷志短，马瘦毛长，整个中华民族又何尝不是如此呢。福地和战场轮转，沃土和灾区互换，文明和劫难交织，天下之中，中不中的乡音，一起熬成了河南这碗饱经风霜，历久弥香的胡辣汤。\n寂寞安徽\n今天的安徽，存在感弱很正常，毕竟存在感的前提是认同感。黄河流域的省份，认同感相对强烈，齐鲁，燕赵，中原，三晋，三秦，甘陇，行政板块就是文化板块，早早就定型了，各有疆界，传承至今。像安徽这样因为政治原因被拆分或硬捏到一起的省份，自然没什么认同感可言。堂堂安徽甚至没有安徽话，有人说吴侬软语，有人操北方官话，省内不同地域的人最好用普通话交流。八大菜系的徽菜，和皖北人也基本没什么关系，在这样的大背景下，认同感弱点再也正常不过（安徽就像一盆大锅饭，你是土豆我是白菜，它是萝卜，相互不搭界，唯一共同点在同一口大锅里，不过，土豆对锅哪有什么认同感）。\n历史上守江必守淮，也就是代表着今天的安徽，皖中天然是条拉锯战线，一省之内打得战火连天，从这个角度看，皖南和皖北人互相看不顺眼简直是天经地义。\n徽京的调侃\n南京的确曾是安徽，江苏两省共同前身江南省的省会。两省分家后，安徽的行政班子硬是在南京逗留了近百年，才恋恋不舍地搬到安庆。安徽对江苏的影响，除了食物，还有语言。南京话和天津话都与江淮官话非常相似，一个天子脚下，一个天子津渡，都是大明留下的遗产。\n五个浙江\n杭嘉湖平原\n是农耕文明的典型浙江，是富饶江南的典型代表，是文人心中的人间天堂。太湖流域是典型的水乡泽国，丰水期往往酿成灾难，其发展与治水技术的进步密切相关，拦水筑坝和造船建桥技术成熟之日，才是杭嘉湖迎来发展之时。\n温台\n艰山海阻的地形，限制了温台与其他地方的联系，虽有永嘉学派，但书卷气终归是点缀，地形的限制也让这里得以摆脱官方正统思想抑制商业的压力，敢于冒险成为温台人刻在骨子里的精神（猫有猫道，鼠有鼠道，不是无道，各行其道）。\n宁绍平原\n介于杭嘉湖和温台之间，既不像杭嘉湖是鱼米之乡，也不像温台曾海盗横行，它是这两者的结合。绍兴自古文人荟萃，输出师爷，学得文武艺，售予帝王家。宁波文化气息相对淡一些，靠海更喜欢的还是经商。\n丽水，衢州\n丽水是浙江最大的市，经济不出彩，但风景很神秀，更有举世三宝：龙泉青瓷，宝剑和青田石雕，浙江作为文化大省，这些传统工艺也功不可没。衢州四省交界，和浙江风俗有了很大区别，无辣不欢。\n金华\n交通闭塞。但孕育了永康的小家电，义乌的小商品市场，东阳的劳务输出和横店影视城。最出名的还是东阳，义乌。东阳出包工头的同时也出文化人、大匠人。泥瓦匠和木雕非常厉害，给无中生有的横店影视城提供了基础。东阳和义乌虽制造业薄弱，但在做市场方面在中国首屈一指。\n破釜沉舟-义乌小商贸\n关于义务小商品市场，曾经问过宁波人，你们宁波制造业那么发达，更有通江达海的的区位优势，为什么你们没把市场做出来？他们很诚实地说道：刚开始我们也想自己做，后来是发现做不过他们，原因也不太清楚。可能是义务人做制造业根本没有优势，所以只能做市场，再遇上几个眼光长远的官员，能持续制造政策洼地，长远规划，持之以恒，最后产生的巨大的虹吸效应。\n义乌周边的一些制造业重镇，都放弃了自己做市场的野心，一门心思做好制造业，然后把市场放在义务，走向全世界。当整个浙江居全省之力借助义乌平台来释放自己的产品的时候，想不成为世界级的小商品市场都不可能。\n吴头楚尾-粤户闽庭-江西\n1840年鸦片战争后，随着上海开埠与商路变迁，中外贸易重心逐渐由广州转移到上海，后来外国轮船获许在长江通航，全国内外商货流通改道。由此，原来大运河-长江-赣江轴线被迅速废弃。这对整条轴线区域发展都是致命打击，杭州苏州相对影响较小，扬州淮安等传统运河沿线城市只好黯然退场。另一个受影响严重的区域就是江西，由江西至广东的传统商业运输线路完全衰落。\n\n之前进入岭南还是岭南商人学子北上，江西都是必经之路，岭南货物从广州沿北江北上，过了梅关，就可以沿赣江北上直通长江，顺江而下，最终由镇江进入京杭大运河\n\n中国历史王朝更迭，南渡北归之时，中原文明往南逃有条通道，从河南到湖北，再顺江而下，黄梅和对岸的江西九江就是这个重要的过江渡口，自然也成了军事重地。\n江西虽然位于南北交汇的枢纽，但它本质还是一个三面环山的大盆地，有非常典型的农耕文明气质。在低调温和的同时保守谨慎，在精打细算的同时瞻前顾后，在朴实热情的同时缺乏锐气与创新，小富即安，缺乏拼劲的盆地意识强烈。\n两湖楚地\n百年风流-湖南\n清朝文书上说，湖南全省一年税收不及江南一大县，所以上马从军或下马读书，成了很多湖南人改变命运的唯二办法。当年苦于条件所限，只有少数湖南人才能读书，然而几十万盆满钵满的湘军裁撤回乡，一夜间完成了原始积累，开始在家乡置田地，聘塾师，教子弟。短短一二十年，三湘大地兴起一股教化之风，尤其是洞庭湖一代，更是文化昌明。\n\n洞庭湖边的岳阳乃千古名城，因为《岳阳楼记》，其实范仲淹根本没来过岳阳，所谓旅游就是这样，看景不如听景，听景不如想景，神游八极，思接千载。\n\n在跟一部分湖南老板打交道的过程中，发现他们确实百无禁忌，底线颇低，加上湘菜多味，湘女多情，湘水多姿，离醉生梦死也差不远了。\n\n湖南人霸蛮，和近代的曾国藩的确关系不小。曾文正是带领湖南出山的人，还将全国的资本带回湖南，包括教育，饮食等等，重新定义了很多东西，实现了湖南的现代化。近代中国湖南就是翻江倒海的地方，养成一部分湖南人心气高，有韧劲，霸蛮，格局大的特点。\n\n丹田湖北\n正所谓南船北马，湖北就是马和船的转换之地，自然形成了南北文化交融，东西人文荟萃的特征。\n无政府械斗\n万里长江，险在荆江，荆江段河道非常曲折，加之江水刚从三峡的束缚中奔涌而出，导致每逢汛期荆江周边地区极易酿成水患，在治水，修坝，建桥等技术没成熟的时期，江汉平原就是水乡泽国的代名词。每次洪水冲刷后，长泛区地貌都会发生极大改变，要么田地变成湖泽，要么湖泽变成淤地，同时带来很多肥沃的土壤，这种地貌变化非常频繁，导致江汉平原上土地，湖区秩序常陷入无政府状态。农民间对田土，湖权的争夺，只能用暴力分出胜负，以邻为壑，宗族械斗非常常见。\n市井\n\n又奸又狡从某种意义上说也是农耕文明对码头文化的嘲讽和回敬\n\n重庆山高水长，地形闭塞，报团性很强，武汉却很开阔，四面透气，更像是一个江湖与市井的结合体。武汉人也彪悍多体现在嘴上，脏话成了武汉甩不开的标签，行动上，却是出了名的精明。不止武汉，整个湖北都是如此。湖北人是出了名的不报团，相形而言，山东人见了老乡眼睛都放光，广东人也重同乡情谊，温州人也如此，都是抱团一致对外。有些湖北商人做生意时会算的过于精，把个人身家和一时成败考虑得太重，导致生意规模起不来。\n要命的女人\n跟大部分地区女性要么要钱，要么要人不同，湖北女人是两手都要抓，两手都很硬。赚少了，她看不起你，赚多了，会看死你。你在家里，她不省心，你在外面，她不放心，简直是娶了女皇。但洁身自爱，独立自强，像要求男人一样要求自己，也是她们的特点，她们在经营家庭方面，绝对是一等一好手。\n楚地对照\n湖南人比湖北人更完整的保留了南方人基因里的霸蛮，都是干架，湖北人是审时度势，尽兴就好，场面上过得去就行，湖南人是豁出所有，死磕到底，出手就做好决裂的准备。湖北有江西人的精明，而没有江西人的含蓄，作为吴头楚尾的江西，比湖北人更多了一丝含蓄儒雅。同样是精于算计，湖北人是一手钱一手货当面算清，可不占便宜但决不能吃亏，江西人是可以月结，小账可以缓一缓，但算总账的时候，同样把算盘打得滴水不漏。湖北人有安徽人的勤勉，但没有安徽人的谦和，同样重农崇文，勤勉上进，安徽多了一份难得的谦和，多灾少田的安徽，稍有不慎就有饿肚皮的窘况，求人就要懂得放下面子，相对于湖北人不愿求人也不轻易帮人的秉性，安徽人的容忍和谦和让他们的勤勉得到了更丰厚的回报。\n阴阳巴蜀\n烟火成都与江湖重庆。从容淡定，乐天知命，随遇而安，追求享受的成都味。重庆本身产盐，古代的巴国人就是通过贩卖井盐给蜀国和楚国过上了不耕而食，不织而衣的生活。巴人尚武爽直的特点，一直浸染着生息与这片土地的人们。成都的男人像女人，重庆的女人像男人也不是不无道理。\n成渝火锅不仅做法不同，吃法也不同。成都火锅讲究麻辣鲜香，味道细腻讲究，菜品多摆盘也精致好看。重庆火锅则注重劲爆火辣，码头食物都是必点食品。这对欢喜冤家双城记，看似阴阳相对，实则有机整体，互相浸润。\n东北往事\n流民的语言特色\n近代闯关东的汉人大多也是文化水平不高的流民，不懂寻章摘句，因为他们极善于用常见的事物来形容抽象的东西，这种语言的艺术充满了来自草根的生命力，画面力很强，让人耳目一新。\n\n比如同样是一座山，在广东叫笔架山，在江浙叫灵翠峰，在东北就叫一撮毛。\n同是一条河，在广东叫珍珠滩，在江浙叫鉴湖，在东北就叫老母猪河。\n\n你可以说他们少内涵，多粗鄙之词，但这就是鲜明的东北特色。\n\n今天额尔古纳的俄罗斯族，其实就是山东淘金汉子和俄罗斯逃难的上流阶层妇女结合形成的民族。从这些后人的艺术造诣，生活品味中，都明显看出长期浸染的贵族气质\n\n东北的很多地方风景美，但少见宣传，不是东北文旅不想宣传，名字很多让人听了实在憋不住笑。\n\n美如阿勒泰，可名字一看叫老秃顶子山（黑龙江最高峰）；\n原始森林风光超美，一看名字叫干饭盆国家森林公园。\n「智取威虎山」大家都听过，这是美化的名字，不美化应该叫智取大夹屁股沟山。\n云海超美，一看名字叫大牛沟。\n在长白山脚下还有一个叫大裤裆沟的地方。你说能不能宣传？哈哈哈\n\n本山的共情能力\n本山大叔始终保持了一种难能可贵的与普通百姓共情的能力，很多人看待中国广大的草根群体，往往抱着的是科学家研究太平洋土著的心态，又或是成功人士俯瞰凋敝山村时的悲天悯人，只有本山的小品能让无数为生活奔波的人们，放下焦虑与疲惫，笑几分钟，你可以大家批驳其文化格调与艺术价值，但这几亿普通人的笑声和背后的共情，也是东北喜剧文化真正的魅力。\n游牧民族执掌中土\n东北的游牧民族身上集渔猎，游牧，农耕三大特征于一体，再加上距中原的距离和落后的程度恰到好处，他们更容易适应中原文明，更容易建立纵横草原，中原的二元封建政体。\n在经略西域和草原方面，清朝远胜中国其他封建王朝，满族入关，除了带来160万平方公里白山黑土的嫁妆外，更用100多年的时间陆续征服明代疆域之外的准格尔部，西藏，青海，喀尔喀蒙古，将王朝疆域推进至帕米尔高原以东的广阔领域，收复台湾，基本奠定现代中国的雏形。中国历史上纯粹的汉家大一统王朝只有汉，明两个朝代。\n\n宋代按标准来说，都不算大一统王朝，他连北方的皇帝都没有消灭，天下有两个太阳，自己权且算一个割据政权\n\n东北真正的问题不在于小城镇的衰退，而是由于当初打下的底子太好，每个县域经济体都比较完善，造成东北的城市化过度分散，最终导致中心城市不够强。我国经济发展的空间结构正在发生深刻变化，中心城市，城市群正在成为承载发展要素的主要空间形式。\n潮与汕不同\n潮温文儒雅，汕则大不相同，汕头人是典型的海洋族群，对于他们中的一些人而言，和平时当渔夫，混乱时就成了快乐的海盗，形成私人武装，打家劫舍，渔盗一体的现象，在浙江，福建沿海地区都比较普遍，汕头表现的更典型。\n\n苏东坡曾被贬惠州，王阳明到贵州龙场，韩愈到了8个月潮州，其实，名人的到来哪有那么大的作用，他们只是薪火，真正的干柴是中土文明和边缘文明间巨大的落差，及这种落差带来的无限向往\n\n潮汕这两种文化传统，交织成了潮汕人两头摇摆的族群特质，形成海盗和儒雅并存的文化格局。儒雅文化培育出工夫茶，潮汕菜，潮剧等厚重的文化底蕴，还有诚信，义气等良性文化基因；海盗文化则鼓励勇敢走出去，打破底线意识，能发横财，用什么手段无所谓（汕头大多还是官商勾兑灰色手段，汕尾「月黑杀人夜，风高放火天」的玩法着实吓人）。据说深圳有三百多万潮汕人，占深圳人口近四分之一，早期三资企业中近40%为潮汕人所投资。\n潮汕商人天生就对生意敏感，再加上他们的勾兑能力，在大众还没醒过来的时候，他们就把整个中国保险牌照，金融牌照拿了个七七八八。\n一个地方有没有文化要看饮食，文化越高的地方，在饮食上花的功夫就越大，人们把想象力和创新力都放到里面去了。潮汕菜之所以出众，和潮汕商人发达有很大关系，潮汕人最早跑到香港发了财，继而产生舌尖上的乡愁，期待向往家乡的这些美味。\n大湾区\n特区深圳\n所谓经济特区探索，本质上是一场以实用主义为导向的探索，一场以对外开放推动对内改革的微创手术，一场收益最大化，代价最小化的精明生意。\n\n按照熊秉权的说法，袁庚这个人翻手为云覆手为雨，政治品质不好，从某种意义上说，袁庚是玩政治的高手，所以熊秉权跟他发生矛盾时非常痛苦。换一种角度，只问目的，不讲手段也成全了袁庚。\n\n深圳是一个大熔炉，不断淘汰和吸纳，像筛子一样，米往哪里走，慷往哪里走，沙子往哪里，最后各归其位，所以，深圳才能汇聚四海人才，刀口舔血，所以深圳这地方，人情淡如纸，大家都疲惫不堪，惶恐不安，没什么情分礼节可讲。。\n什么是生态？生态就是热带雨林，其中乔木灌木各安其位，老虎狐狸物竞天择。\n华为成功的秘诀，是对人性的激发和控制，构成了一部华为的发展史。在任正非看来，企业管理遵循的是人性和欲望的逻辑，华为能披荆斩棘屹立行业之巅，正是因为团队能激发人性，也能节制人性。坚持力出一孔，利出一孔的原则，集众人之私，以成大公。\n对常识的尊重，最规律的顺应，对本质的把握，这是大湾区强势崛起的真正基石。什么是规律，陈云说：不唯有书，不唯上，只唯实。\n湾区起步\n70年代末，80年代初，香港已经很明显出现了问题，劳动力，土地资源有限，生产要素成本急剧攀升。弹丸之地，光靠制造业的转移，人均1万美元GDP都难以实现，要想继续发展，腾笼换鸟成了必然选择。产业转移契机下，中国打开了门户，这是最大的天时，港商只要有订单，不用给钱，村集体拿土地来入股，借钱找包工头把厂房盖好，港商只要把设备拿过来就可以生产，最后利润两边对账。成本之低简直无法想象，土地不要钱，厂房因陋就简，有取之不尽的劳动力，最大的成本就是那些二手的设备。一个个香港大小老板，跑到老家珠三角，找到当地农民租块地建厂房，不断扩大规模再生产，也没什么道德水准可言，对工人无所不用其极的剥削压榨。\n现今\n制造业会逐渐向都市群外圈移动，核心区高房价留下的是金融和总部经济，东莞多年沉淀的加工制造经验，看上去与深圳形成了完美的配合。\n湾区总结\n这个世界从来不是光辉温暖的温室花园，而是充满残酷搏杀的黑暗丛林。人皆凡夫俗子，你我都不例外。我们可以用正能量引导人性向善，但千万不要指望所有人都是圣人，一旦按照洁白无瑕的标准要求普通大众，这个国家只能批量生产伪君子。人性的水推动了大湾区的船，顺水行舟最终成就了万类霜天竞自由的大生态。\n片面结语\n我们的国家太大，放在欧洲就是一个洲，几十个国家，人跟人之间其实已经是不同国家人的性格，如果没有书同文，方言间说的根本就不是一种语言，大家挤在一个大家庭里，其实各个地方人的性格和方言一样，都是不一样的，互相也并不太懂。\n这块大土地上的逻辑，江浙沪的人看得最明白，他们假装不明白。他们已经接近儒教资本主义社会，氛围就是使劲鸡娃，使劲当官，使劲赚钱。江浙沪的富有家庭很少流连夜店，都是低调谦卑，把所有资源都投入到家庭，投入到下一代，对外不卑不亢，所以江浙沪的人在这个国家混得很好。\n山河四省的人算是这个国家的基本盘，一部分人极端不明白，另一小部分人极端明白。这一小戳人就是许三多那种人，看起来木讷酣傻，得到机会都会混得风生水起。他们太明白这个国家的底层逻辑了，你懂这个省甚至懂所在的那个村，就已经别的不需要再懂了。这是生于山河四省的一个幸运，也是不幸。山东官员多，一部分也基于此。\n北京是个例外，是自以为自己最明白，但其实不明白。离真相太近，离事实太远，所以他们明白的是北京城里事和逻辑，误以为这是整个土地的事。门清，啥都门清，一点就透甚至不点都透，但实际上理解的跟真实不是一码事。他们规矩多，会囿[y$\\grave{o}$u]于规矩，误以为这些规矩就是道理，拿来行事往往事与愿违。\n广东人也是自以为明白其实不明白。这里和香港的文化性格差不多，香港人是一种基于落后的先进，北京是一种基于先进的落后。广东人看起来落后，其实很先进。北京人看起来先进，其实很落后。广东人的价值观一方面生冷不忌，开拓进取的生猛精神，涤荡天下的气概(几百年前甚至一千年前那种好)，另一方面又有很多封建的想法，如男尊女卑敬神敬祖宗。很多有钱人喜欢讨二奶，搞三妻四妾，见怪不怪。不是说别的地方的有钱男人不搞，而是别的地方这样搞成本很高，在文化上是要被谴责的，广东人就有点司空见惯的意思。广东人的想法就是过日子，讨老婆，生仔，然后循环，别管世事变化，永远是过日子，这才是生活的全部。他们以为别的地方的人也是这样生活的，其实不是。广东人的宗族关系让他们有很强的纽带，通常还有不错的家庭氛围和家庭关系。小孩子甚至崇拜自己的父母，这在其它地方是很少见的。他们的封建残余是好的一面，不像其他地方是压抑个人发展，个人自由的东西。一句话就是粤语区同时保留了传统文化中最先进的一面，也保留了糟粕的一面，存在些许矛盾与尴尬。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["地理"]},{"title":"大数据收集处理工具链简介","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%94%B6%E9%9B%86%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E9%93%BE.html","content":"\nHDFS存储格式探查\n\n在 MapReduce 中，数据格式易于分割是被期望的特性\nXML，JSON 都不容易被分割，类似于它们的所有半结构化的格式特征好处是可以模拟复杂的数据结构\n大规模的数据，存储空间和数据能支持模式演变（版本兼容）都是值得考量的因素\n一些常见的序列化格式，如 PB，Thrift 等，都原生没考虑数据分割，一些第三方包的处理方式是在原基础上对格式进行扩展，加入分割块，但序列化/反序列化就需要专有配套的类库\nSequenceFiles/Avro，都是设计出来适配 MapReduce 的文件格式\n\nHive存储格式探查\n\n\n分为元数据存储（通常在关系型数据库中）与数据存储两部分\n\n\n数据存储构建在 Hadoop 的 HDFS 文件系统之上\n\n\n基本的划分，有内部表外部表之分（数据是否全由 Hive 管理为判定依据）\n\n\n常见其它平台有数据入库的过程，统一存储格式，数据清洗\n通常业务直推的文件格式都是行格式组织，入库过程可转换为大数据场景友好的列存储格式\n\n\n\n开放 SerDe 接口用以支持各种格式的文件解析\n\n需要将解析类添加至 classpath 的查找路径，通过 addjar 的方式（支持本地或 hdfs 的 jar 包）\n或者加入固定的 hive lib 目录或配置文件中声明（在公共平台上灵活获得配置支持较难）\n\n\n\nHive 的原生的存储格式选择\n\nTextFile：默认格式，行存储，默认列分隔符 0x01，压缩的text 无法分割和合并\nSequenceFile：压缩的文件可以分割和合并\nAvro（From Hive 0.10.1）直接读写 avro 格式文件\nRCFile (RecordColumnar File)\n\n行列结合，同行数据不会跨 Block 存放，块内数据按列组织存储\n对 schema 演化自持较差\n\n\nORC（Optimized），从名字上就看出是 RCFile的升级\n\n空间「压缩编码」&amp; 性能优化\n支持事务和 Update 操作（自 Hive0.14.0完整支持 ACID 操作）\n\n\nParquet（From Hive 0.13 开始逐步支持），初始设计动机是存储嵌套式数据，如 PB，json，转成列式，方便压缩 和编码，减少 IO\n\nORC 和 Parquet都是 Apache列式存储引擎的顶级开源项目，由不同的厂家推广，性能优劣上 ORC 可能更佳（来自 netflix2014 的测试），Parquet 对嵌套式数据结构支持上更佳\n\n\n\n\nParquet(parquet.apache.org)\nOrc(orc.apache.org)\n\n\n\n\n开发语言\nJava\nJava\n\n\n主导公司\nTwitter/Cloudera\nHortonworks\n\n\nACID\n不支持\n支持\n\n\n修改操作\n不支持\n支持\n\n\n支持索引（统计信息）\n粗粒度索引block/group/chunk级别统计信息\n粗粒度索引file/stripe/row级别统计信息，不能精确到列建立索引\n\n\n支持的查询引擎\nApache Drill、Impala\nApache Hive\n\n\n查询性能\n\n更高一点\n\n\n压缩比\n\n更高一点\n\n\n列编码\n支持多种编码，字典，RLE，Delta 等\n支持主流编码，与 Parquet 类似\n\n\n\nHive 操作 JSON 文件\n\n\n解析操作 JSON 格式的数据，需要引入对应 SerDe 类\n\n在 Hive 安装目录 hcatalog 下有 hive-hcatalog-core-x.x.x.jar包可以采用\n运行命令 add jar /appcom/hive/hcatalog/share/hcatelog/hive-hcatalog-core-x.x.x.jar\n亦可添加 hdfs 上的 jar 包，如 add jar hdfs://AAA/BBB\n\n\n\n因为不在 Hive 的默认配置中，所以每次运行都需要执行 add jar 命令\n\n\n建表示例\ncreate external table spark_people_json (  `name` string,  `age` int) ROW FORMAT SERDE &#x27;org.apache.hive.hcatalog.data.JsonSerDe&#x27;STORED AS TEXTFILE;\n\n\nORC和Parquet 的补充对比\n引用[1]做的一个简单实验数据（建表，写数据，SQL 查），量化形象对比\n\n\n\nFormat\n压缩算法\n文件大小\n耗时-秒\n总CPU时间-秒(Cumulative CPU)\n\n\n\n\ntextfile\nNONE\n98.2G\n41.521\n3745.67\n\n\nORC\nZLIB\n18.5G\n31.713\n1107.44\n\n\nORC\nSNAPPY\n28G\n25.59\n1234.89\n\n\nORC\nNONE\n87.6G\n40.571\n1652.23\n\n\nParquet\nNONE\n88G\n33.318\n5440.49\n\n\n\n\n如果数据结构比较扁平，那么用 ORC，如果嵌套较多，用Parquet\nParquet 脱始于 Google Dremel 项目，当初较吸引互联网大厂的眼球\n\n\n日志落地文件仓库\n\n日志数据基本均为可见打印字符\n嵌套复杂数据结构较少\n各业务格式风格不统一且存在变更扩展可能\n业务端的数据应用需求不同（统计分析/导出）\n\n推导出的方案建议\n\n保留业务端的日志原始格式\n数据的使用由业务方自行定制\n无嵌套数据结构，哟给你固定分隔符的文本行，否则用 Json（hive 解析需要额外 jar 包的引入支持）\n类似 PB，Avro，Thrift 及其它格式，亦可以，空间占用率下降的和模式演化能力增强，但可读性下降\n\nFlume\n\nSource --》 Channel --》 Sink 的三级概念设计及数据流向\n\n每级概念均支持多类型实现\n多种数据源，多种 channel，多种 sink 类型\n\n\nSource 中生产出 Event，对 Event 上可以进行自定义（拦截）处理，存入 Channel，Sink 保存数据至指定目的地\nChannel 的功能比较简单，性能瓶颈可能出现在 source 和 sink 两端，更容易出现在 sink 端。Sink 端可以通过成组多配置，来扩容提升处理能力（round robin 或其它负载均衡机制）\nSink 类型支持多种\n\nHive 要求表提前定义，存储格式为 ORC，分区分桶\n\n\n\n结合 Flume 的日志落盘方案\n\n开放字符型日志的上报接口（会自动附加换行）\n\nByte[] 二进制型的接口，视需要后续开放，其放入不同的 kafka topic 中（sink 时不加换行符号）\n\n\nreportLog（String app，int version，String log）\n落盘至 HDFS /应用目录路径/version/日期 对应目录下\n指引业务建表时根据日期进行静态分区，每日脚本运行时，进行分区添加动作\n\n数据推送及消费的流程\nflowchart LR\n    A(日志上报至 Kafka 的对应 topic) --> B(Flume根据 topic 的消息头进行分流)\n    B --> C(sinks至HDFS)\n    C -->D(建Hive表『可选』)\n    D --> E(统计计算onHive/Spark)\n    E --> F(保存数据至 Hive 表『可选』)\n    F --> G(回传数据至业务数据库『可选』)\n数据供业务消费的方案机制\n\n通过 Sqoop 脚本导出 Hive 表对应数据至业务库表\n计算结果直接存入业务数据库表\n计算结果存入 Hbase，业务访问 Hbase\n统计结果推送邮件作为内容查看\n\nSpark的 API\n\nRDD\nDataFrame/DataSet\n\nDataFrame是 SparkSql 在处理数据时的核心数据结构\n类似于数据库的表的形式进行存储，按行组织\n\n\n选择编写 SQL 和编写 Spark 程序（Scala/Java/Python）的依据\n\n类同于用存储过程和普通 SQL 的差别\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRDD\n非结构化的数据处理，可对数据进行最基本的转换，处理，控制\n\n\n\nDataFrame/DataSet\n提供类似数据表的抽象，处理数据上对数据分析人员更有熟悉感\nDataSet 可看作是编译时类型检查版本的 DataFrame\n\n\n\n引用参考\n1.github orc与 parquet 对比 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"大航海前奏-古国交往","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E8%88%AA%E6%B5%B7%E5%89%8D%E5%A5%8F-%E5%8F%A4%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A4%E5%BE%80.html","content":"\n以大航海时代为时间节点，世界史可分为两部分：在此之前，世界史主要是欧亚大陆的历史，而此之后，才是全世界的历史。撒哈拉以南的非洲，因大沙漠的阻隔，文明发展相对滞缓，欧洲航海者到来时，刚刚步入铁器时代，且越往南，因越远离欧亚文明中心，发展越落后。美洲因为孤悬海外，导致文明发展亦及其缓慢，欧洲人能迅速政府那里正是因为文明代差太大。澳大利亚，更是被称为被文明遗忘的角落，甚至一度没把这里的土著当成人类。一开始欧洲人将文明发展的差异归因于文化和人种，但其实根本原因正是地理。\n\n历史地理是中外史家必备的治史密钥，最能体现历史地理对治史的重要性的莫过于战争，任何一场战争都离不开指挥者对地形地貌的利用。如果对战时的地理环境没有足够的认识，历史作品就无法复原战争原貌，认识其背后的历史内涵。\n\n\n东：丝绸之路\n\n西域\n帕米尔高原\n丝绸之路开辟于西汉，当时世界上只有中国能生产丝绸，同时代陆路运输的成本很高，高到如果不运昂贵的丝绸就会无利可图。这也是为啥用丝绸之路来命名的原因。\n帕米尔高原山体高大，平均海拔4500米以上，要翻越帕米尔高原就要面临生死考验，一到冬天，大雪封山。汉人要前往中亚，如果不想翻越帕米尔高原的话，最好是走天山以北。\n\n北道南道\n事实上汉人在出了玉门关后，在天山南麓会遇到两个比较富庶的地方，一个是哈密（哈密瓜产地），一个是吐鲁番（盛产葡萄），盆地能蓄积附近山顶融化的雪水。天山山脉在吐鲁番盆地西北断开了一个口子，沿着这条裂谷往西北前进，入口处是达坂城，出口处是乌鲁木齐（汉时属&lt;东且弥&gt;国），今天达坂城属乌鲁木齐一个区，乌鲁木齐之所以成为新疆首府，正是因为它扼守南北两疆的通道。\n在准格尔盆地西部，有很多出口通往中亚，但最好的路线是过了乌鲁木齐后，沿着依莲哈比尔尕(ga^3)山【蒙古语义：花斑状的肋形山】北麓走，受惠于雪山融水的滋养，有不少绿洲城市可提供补给。到达艾比湖后，折向西南，沿婆罗科努山的山谷到达赛里木湖，在赛里木湖西南角，又有一条狭小山谷通向伊利河谷，这里就是今天的霍尔果斯所在。\n如上是丝绸之路的主要路线，在不同朝代会有不同，如汉代一开始控制南疆，北疆还是小国林立。伊犁河谷和巴尔喀什湖以南都在乌孙手上，那时丝绸之路就需翻越帕米尔高原了。唐代中央政府在西域统治范围更大更强，北疆线路才成为主要线路。\n中亚斯坦\n进入伊犁河谷，就进入中亚了。从地理上讲，就是西起里海，东到帕米尔高原，北至西伯利亚，南抵伊朗高原的部分。此地深处欧亚大陆腹地，最大特点就是气候干燥，造就极具特色的历史和人文。北部是草原，中部以荒漠为主，东部靠着雪山，山脚下滋养出一个个绿洲。因为欧洲地形相对平坦，从大西洋过来的暖湿空气可顺着西风带一直吹到这里，遇到帕米尔高原和天山山脉，形成降雨，所以此片区远离海洋却没有全变成沙漠。但另一方面，北冰洋空气干冷不能带来降水，给这里的冬天只带来低温。\n中亚一带主要生活的是草原游牧部落，经常被抢劫，且缺少定居点，沿线的补给和市场都成问题，所以更多是折向西南人口众多区域进发。\n\n乌兹别克斯坦人口最多，三千多万。哈萨克斯坦富有但是冷清，乌兹别克斯坦贫穷但是热闹，土库曼斯坦沙雕而又中二，剩下的吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦处在山区与中国密切接壤一直在那边自娱自乐\n\n\n\n乌兹别克斯坦占据了中亚最富庶的传统农耕区中的最好几个，所以他人口也是最多的，想比较于其它中亚兄弟，历史上乌兹别克斯坦可以说是农耕区，其他地方传统上是游牧经济为主。\n在二战之前，乌哈两国人口相差不大，但由于大饥荒和二战时塔吉克参战率高，人口增长比乌兹别克人缓慢了很多，这二十多年时间里差距拉大了。\n\n伊朗高原\n\n过了中亚，就进入了伊朗高原，除伊朗外，还包括今天阿富汗的绝大部分和巴基斯坦大部分，海拔900~1500米，面积比青藏高原还大，名义上是高原，实际是个山间盆地，四周高山围绕，中间却相对平坦。伊朗高原是一个非常独特的地理单元，同中亚类似，是草原荒漠气候，适合放牧。四周有高山阻隔，有效防止外来攻击，占据高地，对周边地区有居高临下的优势。东有开伯尔山口，直插印度河平原；北有马什哈德，可进入中亚图兰低地；南有阿巴斯港，可进入波斯湾；西有哈马丹，可进入两河流域。自然成为帝国的诞生摇篮，促成波斯帝国的崛起。\n雅利安人原本是生活在乌拉尔山南部一个古老游牧民族，后迁到阿姆河和锡尔河之间，公元前14世纪，开始南下，一支通过开伯尔山口进入南亚次大陆，摧毁了古印度，统治了那里皮肤黝黑的达罗毗荼人，并建立种姓制度，另一支进入伊朗高原，建立了波斯帝国，摧毁了巴比伦王国和古埃及，四大文明古国，三个都亡在雅利安人之手。\n来自中亚的商队从马什哈德山口进入伊朗高原后，可南下印度，可经阿巴斯刚进印度洋，可西经小亚细亚半岛（土耳其）去希腊，最主要的线路是西经哈马丹到达西亚最富庶的地方美索不达米亚平原。\n两河流域\n两河（底格里斯河和幼发拉底河）流域在今伊拉克境内，也是古巴比伦所在地。古巴比伦能成为人类文明发祥地，一是因为这里产粮，二是处于欧亚大陆十字路口，商贸一开富得流油。但因为这里地处平原，无险可守，逐步成为周边民族抢夺的焦点。虽然伊拉克地处古巴比伦国的地盘上，但伊拉克人与古巴比伦人几乎没有任何关系。\n商队到了两河流域，基本就到了终点，溯两河而上，到达地中海东岸安条克，通过陆路到达君士坦丁堡和开罗，或者水路把货物送到亚历山大港，雅典或威尼斯，热那亚，罗马…\n古国的区别\n古巴比伦和古埃及有一点与中国不同，中国要发展农业，首先要解决水患问题，但这二者不需要大禹这样的人，他们河水定期泛滥，在沿河两岸留下厚厚的淤泥，是很好的农耕土壤。古印度也类似，印度河流域流经沙漠，河水泛滥会留下肥沃土壤，不会形成沼泽。早期人类行为只会影响地表植被，对大气候不会产生明显影响。所以在中国，要想保证农业收成，必须和上下游人一条心，甚至南北方一条心，这也是客观促成中国成为一个统一国家的原因之一。\n海上丝绸之路\n当时苏伊士运河并没有开通，加上海风有季节性，海上点对点航行充满凶险，所以早期海运并不占绝对优势。从中国到东南亚的商船装载主要是丝绸，瓷器，茶叶，但从东南亚到印度的商船就装满了各种香料，如豆蔻，丁香，胡椒，肉桂…，没有这些香料，欧洲人一日三餐都难以下咽。\n蒙古人的影响\n地球最宽广的草原，欧亚大草原，东部干燥，西部湿润，所以逐水草而居的游牧民族总是由东部向西部迁移，而气候更恶劣的东部草原上的游牧民族相对战斗力更强，因而西部游牧民族总是受压不断西迁。欧亚大草原原本部族林立，各山头征伐不断，当蒙古人第一次把草原统一时，丝绸之路变得畅通无比，欧亚间商贸也异常发达，但当蒙古人落败后，草原又回到互相征伐的状态，丝绸之路不再畅通，没有丝绸的衣服缺少光鲜，没有香料的饭菜难以下咽，欧洲的贵族，生活已经离不开东方各种产品，那个时候，欧洲人对东方人生活充满憧憬。\n西：地中海欧洲\n巴尔干半岛\n\n在土耳其语中，巴尔干就是山地的意思，山地面积占到半岛总面积的70%，只有东部沿海一带，以及部分山间盆地，有一些敌视较平整的低地平原。因而难以降生大一统王朝，进而孕育强势文明国家，让自身免受外界威胁。周围也没有有效的地理屏障，南面的地中海气候不恶劣，不能阻挡古典时代敌方海军，东面的黑海也是屏障有限的内海。北部是广袤的匈牙利大草原，与遍地蛮族的欧洲内陆只隔着多瑙河，萨瓦河，外来势力进入巴尔干，难度并不大。换句话说，在没有外界势力插足下，半岛本就四分五裂。历史上长期处于各大势力角逐范围，希腊-马其顿与波斯帝国，罗马与日耳曼–斯拉夫人博弈前沿。随着伊斯兰势力崛起，又成了宗教争夺的对象。\n\n巴尔干是中欧封建大国“征东”要道，扼守欧亚大陆入口，控制着贸易路线，其战略价值吸引了历史上各个帝国的竞争和争夺。\n这里也有肥沃的土地，温暖的气候，适宜农业生产，古代就存在较为发达的农业聚居地带，马其顿王国就以这里作为发展基础向四周扩散。古代巴尔先受古希腊和罗马帝国这些地中海文明统治，中世纪先后被拜占庭帝国和奥斯曼土耳其帝国控制。尤其是土耳其突厥人控制并压迫小民族，那时抗争最为动荡，在一战后，趁奥斯曼帝国开始病，塞尔维亚，克罗地亚人，斯拉夫人联合起来要了土耳其人在巴尔干的命，建立了一个新王国即南斯拉夫王国，但随着铁腕领袖逝去，冷战结束，立即出现国家解体和民族冲突。\n铁托在民族问题上也犯下了巨大错误，为以后的科索沃危机埋下伏笔，他不仅让塞尔维亚这个工业最强的加盟国和其它五个国家完全平等，还让科索沃实行自治。科索沃是塞尔维亚人起源地，在大部分塞尔维亚人心中地位崇高，而铁托当政时期科索沃主体民族已经换成了阿尔巴尼亚人，两个民族和国家地区的祸根就此埋下。\n\n巴尔干地处欧洲与亚洲交界地带，既是交通要道，又是多民族杂居，多种文化混合集中之地，也是三大宗教影响力交界之地，还是主要大国势力范围交锋之所。地处多种主要文明分界线，造成前南地区复杂的民族矛盾，宗教冲突和文化差异，更由于历史原因造成无法和解的对立，前南地区难以长期维持和平，动荡局面总是周期性的出现。因为巴尔干火药桶的称呼，该地区现在更喜欢用东南欧的称谓来替代旧的叫法。\n南部斯拉夫人群体，拥有完全不同的文化体系和宗教信仰，其间的差别远大于西欧各国间的文化差异。塞尔维亚是前南地区人口最多的国家，信仰东正教，与同为东正教的俄罗斯和希腊联系紧密。同信仰东正教的黑山人在前南解体后，与塞先后组成南联盟和塞黑，但终因民族差异而分道扬镳。\n马其顿人也信奉东正教，但历史上亲希腊与塞尔维亚比较疏远。克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚信仰天主教，受德国等周边国家影响较大。\n阿尔巴尼亚和波斯尼亚人都信奉伊斯兰教。三大宗教在此激烈碰撞，无法融合。\n\n希腊半岛\n欧洲最早的文明，受到古巴比伦和古埃及的双重影响。希腊半岛位于巴尔干半岛南部，山峰林立，几乎看不到平地，生活在半岛上的人们一直很苦闷，故在神话故事里，常看到某王子去放羊，就是因为这里不产粮，生活条件很艰苦。地中海气候，是13种气候中唯一的雨热不同期气候类型，农作物生长离不开的两样东西，水和热，在这里是分离的。故希腊不产粮，但有两个特产：葡萄和橄榄，这两样东西都耐旱，山地也可以种植。葡萄酒和橄榄油都很好保存，是很好的商品。好在不远的埃及尼罗河两岸就是产粮区，再远一点可以到两河流域与苏美尔人交换粮食。\n幸运的是，每到夏天的时候，地中海风平浪静，不需要很高的航海技术就可以穿过。于是希腊人和埃及人和苏美尔人有了交流。有了交流，就有了文明的传播，显然希腊人不能照着埃及人和苏美尔人一般学习农耕，也不能学游牧民族去抢，风险大朝不保夕，基于世代出海经商为生的传统，发展出一套自己的商业文明，或者说商业海洋文明。因为粮食是必需品，一旦希腊人以次充好动歪点子，埃及人下回就不做生意了，没有葡萄酒喝埃及人照样生活，故诚实守信是商业文明的根本。\n今天全世界拿橄榄代表和平，也跟这场商贸有一定关系。希腊如没有橄榄，也只能学游牧民族去抢，不偷不抢，靠贸易换粮食，这就是和平。为什么不用酒，因为酒不是普通百姓能消费起的东西，远无橄榄油那样家喻户晓。\n生意人不需像农民那样一年忙到头，葡萄和橄榄树平时基本不需打理，所以希腊人空闲时间比较多，仰望星空，思考灵感突发。在希腊文明时期，中国正处春秋战国时代，先贤也在思考，但中国哲学家思考的是人和人之间的关系，没办法，农耕文明人口密度大，不处理好人与人间的关系，会出乱子。希腊商业文明人口少，地形复杂交通不便，平常也见不着几个人，故更多思考的是个人的问题，进而上升到对世界本质的思考。\n\n希腊并不是一个国家，而是一个地域文化符号，城邦林立，以雅典和斯巴达为代表。雅典实行民主政治，斯巴达实际是有限的王权政治。其它小邦多依附于这两个城邦。和现代民主政治中的代议制不同，雅典实行直接民主，比较麻烦，好在人不多，且不是所有人都有公民权（妇孺，奴隶没有），也不是所有公民都经常参会。即使这样，公民大会最少也有几千人参加，经常开的五百人议事会也有四五百人参加，在公元前6世纪没有麦克风没有便宜的纸和笔传递文件，几千人几百人一起开会是什么结果（效率+混乱）。\n意大利（亚平宁）半岛\n\n意大利北部波河平原超过了关中渭河平原，足以孕育一个农业帝国。波河平原北部是阿尔卑斯山，其雪山融水也是波河平原不缺水的先天条件。平原南部是长1400公里的亚平宁山脉，在山脉两边靠近地中海的沿海地带，有一些比较小的冲积平原，这些地方受希腊文明影响，早期也建立了一些城邦国家，如罗马。\n罗马人要前往埃及和两河流域做生意远不如希腊人方便，但他们有耕地，可自己种粮食。农耕文明人口增长很快，耕地不够了需要对外扩张，逐步占领了半岛。罗马扩张到波河平原后碰到高大的阿尔卑斯山，于是调转方向，目光放在地中海几个岛上，西西里岛，撒丁岛，科西嘉岛，可惜这些岛有其主人，就是迦太基人。\n灭国迦太基（Carthage）\n\n\n当时地中海被两大势力控制：东部是希腊人，西部是迦太基人。迦太基是腓尼基人在北非西部（今突尼斯)建立的国家，腓尼基人（原意为紫红色，出产紫红色颜料）原本生活在地中海东岸（今黎巴嫩和叙利亚沿海一带），后受到亚述，巴比伦等国积压，一部分迁到北非，向生活在那里的柏柏尔人借了块地建国。腓尼基人是出色的商人，擅长航海，在频繁的商贸活动中，腓尼基人经常需要书写，记账，于是他们参考埃及人和苏美尔人的文字，创造了简单又方便书写的22个腓尼基字母，这22个字母传到希腊，被稍加改造，就成了希腊字母，进而成为罗马和拉丁字母的源头，故可以说腓尼基字母才是欧洲文字之母。\n\n腓尼基人和希腊人一样，都是商业文明，都吧目光放在海上，为了争夺海权经常发生冲突，谁也没留意到罗马从一个部落发展成了一个大国。辉煌一时的希腊在逐渐帅落后倍北方的马其顿人征服，在亚历山大国帝国土崩瓦解后，希腊辉煌也一去不返。此时罗马在地中海的唯一对手就是迦太基。\n在公元前3世纪至前2世纪，罗马和迦太基进行了三次战争，最终迦太基被灭国，被同化，腓尼基人消失在历史长河中。迦太基是海权国家，罗马擅于陆战，第一次战争中于是罗马在舰队上装有尖钩的“接舷吊桥”（corvus），宽1.2公尺、长10.9公尺，两侧设有小栏杆，当敌舰驶近时迅速放下吊桥钩住对方船舰，相当现代的舰桥，在甲板上展开陆战而赢得胜利。第二次战争中腓尼基将领汉尼拔创造了军事胜利，但接下来有战略失误，最终还是被罗马反攻。\n治理之困\n罗马人在消灭迦太基后进入巴尔干半岛，希腊也并入罗马的版图。罗马帝国在扩张道路上始终没有解决一个问题，就是如何统治一个面积如此广的帝国，同时期的东方，秦朝实行郡县制，用武力实现统一，但很不稳定，到了汉朝，武帝独尊儒术，从思想上解决了人们对大一统的认可，又创立察举制，选拔专业官员管理国家，从而实现中央集权。而罗马帝国没有解决这些问题，内部各种势力错综复杂，各处征服的土地也有相当的自主权，随时有土崩瓦解的危险。\n罗马的政体是雅典和斯巴达的结合体，即使在帝国时期，执政官的权利也和中国皇帝相差万里，且执政官职位不能世袭，不管是王政时代，共和时代还是帝国时代，内核还是权力制衡的三权分立，制衡的好处是公民相对自由，创造了古典文明。欧洲人的爵位是层层分封的，中国的公侯伯子男是由周天子分封的。欧洲人说：国王的国王不是我的国王。国王和封建领主之间也是一种契约关系，国王做不到一言九鼎。各大领主组成议会，参与国家的治理，左右国王的一举一动，总之一句话，欧洲统治者的权力是有限的。\n因为各地都有一定自治权，罗马帝国又没实现中国那样的中央集权，统治这么大一片土地难度相当大，终于迎来罗马帝国的东西分裂。\n匈奴西去\n汉朝人并未将匈奴斩草除根，最后他们还有很大的势力，只是按中国史书记载，他们西去后就不知所踪了。但只要一看地图就知道，匈奴是游牧民族，逐水草而居，去向只会有一个，就是沿着欧亚大草原一路向西，先到中亚，再到欧洲。\n欧洲早期文明集中在沿地中海一带。在阿尔卑斯山以北，是广袤的平原，分为西欧平原，波德平原和东欧平原。在西欧平原（今法国一带）居住着高卢（凯尔特人一支）人，波德平原居住者日耳曼人，东欧平原（今俄罗斯西部和乌克兰）居住着斯拉夫人。这三支被当时的罗马帝国称为三大蛮族。虽然欧洲平原多，但维度高（阿尔卑斯和哈尔滨的维度相当），北大西洋暖流影响的主要是西欧和北欧，所以早期农耕技术还不发达的时候，欧洲平原发展不出农耕文明，只能是游牧民族的天堂。\n匈奴人的到来引起欧洲草原上的连锁反应，当匈奴人击败东哥特人（日耳曼人一支）时，其它日耳曼人（西哥特人，汪达尔人，昂撒人，法兰克人等）为了躲避进攻，像潮水一样涌入罗马帝国境内，西罗马帝国在这些蛮族入侵下，终于挺不住灭亡了。\n教会的蓬勃\n日耳曼人没希腊人那么多文化，也不识字，一开始烧杀抢掠，但后来发现抢劫不如收税，于是想效仿罗马人建立国家。但他们多数人是文盲，知识掌握在教会手里，于是日耳曼人向教会请教，欧洲大地一时涌现众多日耳曼国家，其中以法兰克王国为代表，鼎盛时期占了欧洲西部大片土地。后来法兰克王国一分为三，西法兰克，中法兰克，东法兰克，分别奠定了法国，意大利和德国的雏形。\n罗马帝国衰落时，执政者为了加强控制，曾将基督教定为国教（镇压了多年民间一直有生命力，且其教义主要以个人去除欲望，宣扬和谐，逐渐被当局接受），但教权一直控制在政府权力之下。这次日耳曼人像学生一样向教会请教怎么建国，教会从生活，法律，宗教方面对日耳曼实施全方位改造，并搞加冕仪式。形式上最高统治者变成了教皇，但并不真正掌握世俗权力，但手握对世俗权力的控制，重要是达到在思想文化方面的控制，以保证教会的利益。\n东罗马地拖凭借独特的地理位置在蛮族入侵下幸存下来，但无力收复故土，最后和日耳曼人达成协议，不会西征，专心对付北边的斯拉夫人和东边的波斯人。两个教皇的矛盾，也造成天主教和东正教的撕裂。\n东罗马夹在欧洲和中东之间，一直面对着来自东方的巨大压力。波斯帝国衰落后，7世纪，一支来自半岛的阿拉伯人兴起，依靠着伊斯兰教的力量，席卷整个中东，建立了横跨亚，欧，非的阿拉伯帝国。伊斯兰教和基督教同发源于犹太教，但这两支从一开始就势同水火，可参见亚伯拉罕诸教的差异。也正因为东西方通道的阻塞，导致了近代地理大发现，人类大探险—大航海时代故事将拉开帷幕。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史","地理"]},{"title":"大语言模型LLM","url":"/%E5%A4%A7%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html","content":"\nChatGPT\n\nGPT:Generative Pre-trained Transformer\n科技部长的金句：踢足球都是盘点，射门，但是要做到梅西那么好也不容易\n\n惊喜与惊醒\n大语言模型的效果好到令人咋舌，我们距离LLM的认知和发展理念，距离世界最先进的想法，差得有点远\n\nBert出现后1~2年间，国内追赶技术很快，也提出了一些改进模型\n分水岭在GPT-3，即为2020年中，体现了LLM应往何处去的发展理念，全球看中的人很少，梯队明显\n\n包括Google在内，对于LLM发展理念的理解，都落后OpenAI一个身位（半年到一年的时间）\n国内可能落后2年左右\n\n\n\n\n鹰酱的风格是进化论模式，各个方向上各个公司都搞低成本试探进攻，让企业家去承担试错成本。进化是允许犯错的，甚至是进化不可少的前提\n\n最难的事情 : 方向可行性，已经被蹚出来了（此正是技术最难的一点）\n\n\n我方堆资源，集中力量办大事的优势可以发挥\n\n\n商业的竞争，开源的平替也在出现（甚至可能是故意的泄露）\n\n\n老美限制我们，软件上挡不住，那就硬件上挡\n\n\n\n\n芯片型号\n售价（美元）\n售价（人民币）-- 22年汇率还有优势\n供应中国情况\n\n\n\n\nV100\n10000\n69000\n\n\n\nA800\n12000\n82800\n缺货\n\n\nA100\n15000\n103500\n断供\n\n\nH100\n36500\n251820\n断供\n\n\n\n\n\n\nA800是A100阉割特供版，计算性能相似，数据传输速度降低30%，影响AI集群训练速度和效果，还缺货，一次只能采购数百片\n\nNLP研究范式转变\n从深度学习到两阶段训练模型\n深度学习期\n\n\n由大量改进LSTM模型及少量改进的CNN模型作为典型的特征抽取器\n\n\n以Sequence to Sequence（或叫encoder-decoder亦可）+Attention作为各种具体任务典型的总体技术框架\n\n\n在这些技术下，研究目标归纳为如何有效增加模型层深或模型参数容量。就是往encoder-decoder里不断叠加更深的LSTM或CNN层。\n但受限于有限的训练数据总量（不够匹配模型容量增加）和特征抽取器有限的表达能力（不能吸收数据里蕴含的知识），最终这条路径相较于飞深度学习方法并没有出现碾压式的优势\n\n三元或四元甚至更高阶的模型是不是能覆盖所有语言现象。答案是不行\n上下文之间相关性可能跨度非常大，甚至可以从一个段落到另一个段落\n\n两阶段训练大模型\nBert和GPT模型出现后，在学术研究和工业应用角度看，都带来了一个技术飞跃，子领域的技术方法和框架日趋统一\n\nBert出现一年左右，技术栈就基本全线收敛到此二位上。\n图像领域预训练模型（vision transformer）应用到下游任务，带来的效果收益，远不如Bert/GPT应用在NLP下游任务那么显著，要是蹚通了，图像处理的各个子研究领域可能也会逐步消失，直接完成终端任务\n\n带来的影响\n中间任务消亡\n中文分词，词性标注，命名实体识别（NER），句法分析，指代消解，语义Parser等，这类任务不是解决任务的实际需求，但作为解决任务的中间阶段或辅助阶段存在。而用户其实只关心最终具体任务有没有干好。\n通过大量的预训练，Bert/GPT已经把这些中间任务作为语言学特征，吸收到了Transformer参数里，无需对中间过程专门建模，可端到端直接解决最终任务。\n\n在技术发展的早期阶段，很难一步做好有难度的最终任务，科研人员就把难题分而治之\n\n技术路线统一\n最终任务分类：NLU+NLG\nNLU：文本分类，句子相似性计算，情感倾向判断，意图识别等，都是分类任务。\n\n统一到了Bert为代表的“双向语言模型预训练”+应用fine-tuning的模式\n\nNLG：聊天机器人，翻译，文本摘要，问答系统等\n\n统一到了GPT-2为代表的“自回归语言模型（从左到右单向语言模型）+zero/few shot prompt”的模式\n\n绝大多数人当时都低估了GPT这条路线的潜力，视线中心都聚焦到了Bert模式上。\n预训练到通用人工智能\n\n从GPT-3以后，尚在加速演进\n\nChatGPT\nChatGPT是触发这次范型转换的关键点，在InstructGPT出现前，LLM其实出于过渡期。\n\nChatGPT最惊艳和最大的贡献是基本实现了让LLM适配人的命令表达方式，给出了很好的解决方案，增加了易用性和用户体验\n证明了可以去直接追求理想的LLM模型，未来的技术趋势应是越来越大的LLM模型，增加预训练数据的多样性\n\n\n\n预训练模型早期，人们普遍更看好Bert一些\n\nfine-tuning方式解决下游任务，Bert&gt;GPT\nFine-tuning效果占优的领域是因为领域训练数据量大，从数据安全角度，fine-tuning还没那么快消失，但已经不是潮流了\n\n\n\n随着技术发展，目前规模最大的LLM模型，几乎清一色类似GPT-3的模式，背后有一定的必然性\n\n\nNLG表现形式可兼容NLU，反之则不行。分类问题可转换成让LLM生成对应类别字符串，Google的T5模型，形式上就统一了NLU+NLG的外在表现形式。\n\n\n\nZero/few shot promot方式做好任务，采取GPT模式\n\n数据是海量的，要吸收知识，需非常多的参数来存储只是，必是巨无霸模型\n模型规模巨大，有能力做出及改动这个模型参数的机构必然少\n就算把模型开源出来，中小机构和个人也无力部署，更不用说用fine-tuning这种模式去修改模型参数了\nLLM as Service的模式运行，超大模型一定会走向AGI（人造通用智能）\nChatGPT用Instruct取代了prompting，由此带来新的技术范式转换\n\n\n\n\n\nChatGPT改变了GPT-3.5什么？\n\nGPT-1学习资料5G，参数1.17亿\nGPT-2学习资料40G，参数15亿\nGPT-3学习资料45T，参数1750亿\n\nGPT有了海量知识，但回答形式和内容却不受约束，因为它知道的太多了。见到了一个人几辈子都读不完的资料，会随意联想，像一只脑容量超级大的鹦鹉，如何指挥它成了一个目标。\nChatGPT注入了人类偏好知识，什么是好的回答，什么是不好的。如详细回答是好的，带有歧视内容的回答是不好的，人类对回答质量好坏的偏好，用对话模板去矫正其开卷有益时学到的不规范习惯（跟教鹦鹉说话一个道理），通过reward-model反馈给LLM数据，得到一个懂得人话，比较礼貌的LLM。\n\n用人工专门写好的优质对话范例让GPT去接龙\n\nLLM的知识构成\n\nTransformer是足够强大的特征抽取器，尚不需做特别的改进，那它学到了什么？\n\n语言类知识和世界知识\n\n语言类知识是指语法，词性，句法，语言等有助于人类或机器理解的自然语言知识\n世界知识指发生在这个世界上的一些真实事件和常识性知识\n\n对于Bert类型的语言模型来说，只用1000w到1亿单词的语料，就能学好句法语义等语言学知识；事实类知识要更多的训练数据。\n随着Transformer模型层深的增加，能学到的知识数据以指数级增加，把模型看作是以模式参数体现的隐式知识图谱，一点也不违和。\n如何存取知识\n\n多头注意力（MHA）占了参数总量的1/3，用于计算单词或知识间的相关强度，对全局信息进行集成，建立知识间的联系，大概率不会存储具体的知识点\nFFN（Feed Forward Network）结构占了剩余2/3，承担主体知识的存储。FFN的输入层其实是某个单词对应的MHA的输出结果Embedding，将整个句子有关的输入上下文集成到一起的Embedding，代表整个输入句子的整体信息\nTransformer低层对句子表层模式做出反应，高层对语义模式做出反应。也就是低层FFN存储语法，句法等表层知识；中层和高层存储语义及事实概念知识\n\n\nLLM的规模效应\n目前效果最好的LLM模型，参数规模大都超过了千亿（100B），如OpenAI的GPT-3规模175B，Google的LaMDA规模540B，华为盘古模型200B，百度文心260B，随着模型不断增长，会发生什么？\n\n\n研究证明，越大的LLM模型学习效率越高，学到了更多知识，任务效果更好。多数NLU任务，都是知识密集型任务，近两年都在模型规模增长下获得了极大的效果提升。\n\n\n模型规模是解锁LLM新能力的关键，出现某种涌现能力带来意想不到的精彩，如chatGPT的推理能力。\n\n思维链是典型的增强LLM推理能力的技术，流利性也是在规模上得以解决的。\n上下文学习里出现的涌现效应，等价于隐式的微调，但如何有效尚未搞明白\n\n\n\n\n\n想出现涌现能力，模型规模大小和具体任务有一定的绑定关系\n\n图表第一行的3位数加法任务，模型只要达到 13B（130亿参数），就可以具备涌现能力，但是对倒数第二行的 Word in Context Benchmark任务而言，目前证明，只有540B 大小的模型才可以做到这点。我们只能说，就In Context Learning而言，如果模型达到 100B， 大多数任务可以具备涌现能力。\n把模型做小会影响LLM的涌现能力么\nDeepMind 2021年发表的模型 Chinchilla，这个模型目前做各种任务的效果，和 540B大小的PaLM 基本相当。Chinchilla的思路是给更多的数据，但是把模型规模做小[4]。\nChinchilla模型大小只有 70B，是Gopher的四分之一，但是付出的代价是训练数据总量，是Gopher的四倍，所以基本思路是通过放大训练数据量，来缩小模型规模。\n在以后训练模型的时候，可以考虑 先增加训练数据 ，降低模型参数量，把模型做小(保险起见，不应小于70B)，先把模型参数利用充分，在这个基础上，再继续增加数据，并推大模型规模。\n第二个小模型代表是 Meta 发布的开源模型 LLaMA，它的做法其实很好理解，本质上就是开源的 Chinchilla，它的思路是完全遵照 Chinchilla 来做的，增加训练数据，并把模型规模做小\nTransformer的稀疏化\n目前规模最大的LLM中，相当比例的模型采取了稀疏结构，如GPT-3，PaLM，好处是它可以极大减少LLM的训练时间和在线推理时间\n有研究表明，标准的Dense Transformer在训练和推理时，它本身也是稀疏激活的，既然如此，不如直接迁移到稀疏模型\n随着模型越大，稀疏模型带来的收益越明显\n人机交互\n\n从In Context Learning到Instruct理解\n\nZero shot prompt是Instruct的早期叫法，内涵一致，具体做法不同\n\n早期Zero shot prompt实际上就是不知道怎么表达一个任务才对，就换不同的单词或句子，反复尝试好的任务表达方式。这种方式已经被证明是在拟合训练数据的分布\nInstruct做法则是给定命令表达语句，试图让LLM理解它，尽管表面都是任务的表述，但思路是不同的\n\nIn Context Learning和Few shot prompt意思类似，就是给LLM几个示例做范本，然后让LLM解决新问题\n\nIn Context Learning也可以理解为某项任务的描述（用例子来具象表达任务命令），只是Instruct是一种更抽象的描述形式\n\n\nLLM用来生成Instruct效果很不错，在一些任务上超过人类的表现，所以Prompt engineer也是一个不长久的职位\n\n\nFine-tuning和In Context Learning表面看似都提供了一些例子给LLM，但两者有质上的差别\n\nFine-tuning拿这些例子当训练数据，用反向传播去修正LLM的模型参数\n但In Context Learning只是拿出例子让LLM看了一眼，并没有根据例子去修正参数，就要求它去预测新例子（正是In Context Learning的神奇之处，尚无清晰的原理解释）\n\n\n\n如何增强LLM的推理能力\n咱们通常不会因为一个人单靠记忆力强，就说这个人很聪明，还要看他是否有强的推理能力，推理能力是智力水平更佳的标准。强大推理能力也是让用户认可LLM的心理基础。\n\n推理能力的本质是综合运用很多知识，去推导出新的知识或新结论\n\n在LLM推理方面相关的工作和研究，可归为4大类\n\n\n基于Prompt的方法，通过合适的提示语或文本，更好地激发LLM本身就具有的推理能力，google在这个方面做了大量很有成效的工作\n\n更好的展示出能力的技术方法，直接在问题上追加辅助推理Prompt，在众多领域都很有效\n\n第一阶段在提问的问题上追加“Let’s think step by step”这句提示语，LLM会输出具体的推理过程；第二阶段，在第一阶段的问题后，拼接LLM输出的具体推理过程，并再追加Prompt。如此简单的操作，却可以大幅增加LLM在各项推理任务中的效果，比如在数学推理测试集GSM8K上，加上提示语后，推理准确率直接从原先的10.4%提升到了40.4%，可谓神奇。（猜测预训练数据里面存在大量的此种数据，提示语激发LLM模糊得“回忆”起某些例子的推导步骤）\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCOT\n标准的COT由人工来写推理步骤，而Zero-shot COT大概是通过提示语，激活了记忆中某些包含推理步骤的示例。人工给出的示例，准确性是有保障的，所以自然标准CoT效果会更好。\n\n最早的COT概念文章发表于22年1月，虽然做法简单，但应用COT后模型推理能力得到了巨大的提升\n\n意思是让LLM明白一个道理：在推理过程中，步子不要迈的太大，化大问题为小问题，积小胜为大胜\nCOT提出不久，很快在22年3月，一种被称为“Self-Consistency”的改进技术继续助力提升准确率，它要求LLM输出多个不同的推理过程和答案，然后用投票的方式选出最佳答案，将GSM8K测试集准确率提高到83%左右。简答的方法往往蕴含着深刻的道理。虽然COT起效仍有黑盒的味道。\n\n\n\nLeast-to-most prompting，应用分治的思想，将一个复杂的推理问题，分解成若干更易解决的子问题，应证了COT的工作模式。要解决Final Q问题，先把原始问题和Prompt交给LLM，让LLM给出最终问题的前置子问题sub Q，然后用原始问题拼接子问题sub Q及答案，再去问LLM最终问题Final Q\n\n\n在预训练过程中引入程序代码，和文本一起参与训练，这应是OpenAI实践出来的思路\n\n体现出一种通过增强多样性的训练数据，来直接增强推理能力的思路\n为何预训练模型可以从代码中获得额外的推理能力，确切原因未知。可能开始只是尝试从文本生成代码，而代码中往往包含很多文本注释，本质上类似于预训练模型做了两种数据的多模态对齐工作\n支持越来越多的任务类型，主要是通过增加LLM预训练数据的多样性来达成\n\n\n\n算力约束下的最优培养策略\n假设用于训练LLM的算力总预算（如多少GPU天）给定，是应多增加数据量，减少模型参数呢，还是说数据量和模型规模同时增加，减少训练步数呢？\n OpenAI选择了同时增加训练数据量和模型参数，但采用早停策略来减少训练步数的方案\n\n且优先增加模型参数，然后才是模型数据量\n假如算力预算增加了10倍，那么应增加5.5倍的模型参数量，1.8倍的训练数据量，此时模型效果最佳\n单调增加模型参数，固定住训练数据量，这个做法也是不对的，限制了模型的潜力\n\nAGI？\n不少人批评大模型本质上只是统计学，预测下一个 token，就像随机模仿人类说话的鹦鹉。但大家体验到的事实告知我们不是这样，训练压缩了文本生成过程的某种表示，文本实际上是对世界的投影。\n\n问题后的下一个 token，便是答案的第一个 token。大模型的训练过程可能就跟大脑学习过程类似，就像你在预测视觉的下一帧，听觉的下一个声音。很好地预测下一个 token，意味着了解创造该 token 的深层现实：预测即压缩，压缩就是智能的来源。大模型做的就是寻找共同结构，使用共同结构编码事物，这样效率更高。甚至它有能力理解数百种人类还未见过的类比，这就是创造力的来源。\n来自 hilton 和\n如果一个人轻信别人告诉他的一切，就太致命了。不轻信他人，而是尝试将信息融入自己对世界的理解框架中，如果融不进去，就拒绝，这是很好的策略。如果试图吸收被告知的一切，最终会得到一个非常模糊的框架，相信一切，但是没有用处。应拥有一个坚定的世界观，并试图摆弄输入的事实以适应你的观点。\n为何是OpenAI\n胜在一开始就自我定位比较高，要做出人物无关超大型LLM，以生成一切的方式解决各种实际问题，且应能听懂人类的命令。不受外界干扰态度坚定不移。\n\nGPT-1比Bert出来更早，Bert证明了双向语言模型对于很多NLU任务，效果比GPT这种单向语言模型更好，尽管如此，GPT-2也没有切换技术路线，且开始尝试zero/few shot prompt。因效果比Bert+fine-tuning差的比较远，所以大家都没太当回事，甚至不理解它为什么要始终坚持走单向语言模型的路线。\nGPT-3展示出不错的zero/few shot prompt能力，后面技术差距从这里拉开，再往后是InstructGPT和ChatGPT\n\n\nOpenAI的股权设计很特别，不受任何股东制约，投资者没有控制权，协议上是一种债的结构，赚完2万亿，接下来不再盈利了，一切回归社会\n\nOpenAI首席科学家Ilya Sutskever生于俄罗斯，长大于以色列，十多岁岁父母移民到了加拿大。从小就一直想搞清楚意识（consciousness）这个东西，对一切能助其了解意识的东西感兴趣，AI对其就是一个好的切入点，他有一个观点，你能高效压缩信息，你一定已得到知识（这与自己对模型的表述不谋而合）。在OpenAI建设引领中他和组织坚信两件事\n\n模型架构，它要足够深，bigness is betterness，只要有算力，只要有数据，越大越好。在OpenAI早期用的是LSTM，后来看到Transformer就用Transformer\n改变一切的范式永远有个引擎，引擎能不断前进\n\n其近期的研究方向是提高模型的可靠性和可控性，加快模型从少量数据中学习知识的速度，并降低对人工指导的依赖，避免出现幻觉\nWhy OpenAI Not Google\n两者的技术人员可是差了一个数量级，OpenAI联合创始人Greg Brockman面对这个问题如此说道：\n都是站在巨人的肩膀上，全AI行业在计算，算法，数据上都取得了进步，不过OpenAI在早期，做了一些深思熟虑的选择。\n\n\n第一个选择就是直面现实，很认真的想过如果想要在这个领域取得进展，需要做什么，也做了很多没用的尝试，才看到这些有用的结果\n\n\n还有一点最重要的是让不同团队间可以紧密协作\n\n\nStep By Step\n无心插柳\nOpenAI过去有人尝试训练一个模型，预测亚马逊平台评论的下一个字符。最终得到了一个可以分析评论句法的模型，但同时也得到了一个达到SOTA的情绪分析分类器，可以告诉人们这条评论是好评还是差评。这个算法现在看来可能不足为奇，但在当时他们第一次从底层句法中分析出语义，他们就知道必须朝这个方向做下去。\n\n一些后来看上去很大的成果，都不是起初的目标，而是在实践过程中潜移默化发展出来的。\n\n面对AI恐惧的解答\n现在有很多对AI的担忧，呼吁暂停更强AI的研发。Brockman如此回应到：\n\n一开始考虑如何构建通用人工智能时，也是希望它能造福全人类。\n不存在弄清楚所有安全性后再开始，这可能是对的，但他不知道该如何执行这一计划\n唯一可行的是在机器变得完美之前，给人们时间来提建议。\n\n人类开发计算机，算法等技术，都是step by step，并要再推进的每一个阶段去弄清楚如何管理好它们，就好像养大一个孩子，是大家共同引导，给它树立规矩，而不是教它毁灭人类。\n成本与挑战\n当前能做ChatGPT这类事的机构，国外不超过5家，国内不超过3家\n\nAzure云服务为ChatGPT构建超过1w枚A100/H100的计算集群，大型商业化后续投入还需更多\n国内超过w枚GPU的企业不超过5家（高低配合起来）只有1家，有w枚A100的最多只有一家，短期内布局的选手十分有限。需要长期高成本投入，高性能GPU芯片短缺，采购成本和运营成本都很高昂，挑战的就是资金储备，战略意志和实际技术能力（含工程能力）。\n考虑到成本问题，未来或许会出现股份制大模型，机构合作共建\n\n大模型分布式训练挑战\n200B参数，参数内存占用 754GB 内存，训练过程需要 3500GB+内存「权重+激活+优化器状态」。通讯过程需要综合考虑数据参数量、计算量、计算类型、数据样本量、集群带宽拓扑和通讯策略等不同因素，才能设计出性能较优的切分策略，最大化通讯效率。\n大模型的分布式训练，考验的是算法，数据，框架，资源调度等全栈和全流程的综合能力。\n深度学习训练耗时与优化\n训练耗时 = 训练数据规模 $\\times$ 单步计算量 / 计算速率\n\n前两个参数与模型相关，计算速度是可变因素\n\n计算速率 = 单设备计算速率 $\\times$ 设备数 $\\times$ 多设备并行效率(加速比)\n\n单设备计算速率的影响因素：混合精度、算子融合、激活重计算、加速优化器\n设备数的影响因素：服务器架构、通信拓扑优化\n并行效率影响因素：数据并行、模型并行、流水并行\n\n并行与内存优化概览\n数据并行：将训练数据分成多个子集，在多个计算设备上同时计算每个子集，然后将梯度进行聚合并更新模型参数\n模型并行：将模型分成多个部分，在不同计算设备上计算不同部分的模型，并通过消息传递协议进行交互\n管道并行：将模型分成多个阶段，在不同计算设备上计算不同阶段的模型，并通过消息传递协议进行交互，实现对深度神经网络的分布式训练\nmindmap\nroot[并行和内存优化]\n  Tensor并行\n    1D\n    2D\n    2.5D\n    3D\n  流水线并行-Pipeline Parallelism\n  序列并行-Sequence Parallelism\n  数据并行\n    ZeRO 1\n    ZeRO 2\n    ZeRO 3\n    ZeRO ++\n    DDP\n    Pytorch FSDP\n  分布式训练框架\n    ColossalAI\n    DeepSpeed\n    Megatron\n    Huggingface Accelerate\n    NeMo\n    FairScale\n  Selective Activation Recomputation\n  Flash Attention 1&2\n分布式模型训练加速\n---\ntitle: 多进程分布式模型训练\n---\nflowchart LR\n  A((进程 1)) --> B[拉起容器]--> C[设置系统环境变量]--> D[拉起训练进程]--> E[获取环境变量确定自身角色]--> Split1[切图获取当前要执行的子图]\n  subgraph 执行任务1\n  direction LR\n  R1[\"Run State1\"] --> R2[\"Run Stage2\"] -->|Communicate| R3[\"Run Stage...\"]\n  end\n  Split1-->|Barrier|执行任务1\n  执行任务1-->Finish1((训练结束))\n  \n  A2((进程 1)) --> B2[拉起容器]--> C2[设置系统环境变量]--> D2[拉起训练进程]--> E2[获取环境变量确定自身角色]--> Split2[切图获取当前要执行的子图]\n  subgraph 执行任务2\n  direction LR\n  R12[\"Run State1\"] --> R22[\"Run Stage2\"] -->|Communicate| R32[\"Run Stage...\"]\n  end\n  Split2-->|Barrier|执行任务2\n  执行任务2-->Finish2((训练结束))\n每个进程启动后，需感知自己的「全局进程数」及自身「进程 ID-或 rank_id」，由于每个进程上运行的都是同一份训练脚本，所以得事先在每个进程所在的系统上设置不同的环境变量，进程运行起来后，即可获取环境变量，从而确定自己的角色（Worker、PServer、Coordinator 等）及 rank_id、world_size等信息\n在运行过程中，还有两个重要的环节是 Barrier 和 Communicate\n\nBarrier 的目的是为了实现进程间同步，比较成熟的开源项目有 gloo、mpi 等\nCommuncation 操作就是实现通信，满足进程间数据交换需求。通信可在不同类型硬件间发生，如CPU 和 GPU 间，通信后端也有多种形式，如 grpc、nccl、socket等\n\n大模型研发粗略基础架构\nblock-beta\ncolumns 5\n垂直应用场景:5\n模型加速适配层\nblock:group1:4\ncolumns 4\nTensorRT/ONNX 剪枝量化工具 在/离线部署 服务管理工具\nEmbedding工具 推理加速工具 蒸馏工具 实验/灰度发布工具\nend\n大模型仓库层\nblock:group2:4\nHuggingface模型库 领域算法模型库 FairSeq模型库 自定义模型库\nend\n训练加速适配层\nblock:group3:4\ncolumns 5\n混合精度训练 梯度检查点 CPU[\"CPU Offload\"] 模型状态切分 梯度累计\nS[\"Dynamic Shape\"] 算子拆分 流水并行 Kernel融合加速 MOE\nend\n高性能分布式训练加速框架\nblock:group4:4\ncolumns 5\nD[\"MicrosoftDeepSpeed\"] N[\"NvidiaMegatron\"] H[\"HuggingfaceAccelerate\"] BMTrain CollossalAI\nend\n基础设施\nblock:group5:4\ncolumns 3\nTensorFlow/Pytorch NCCL/ACCL 训练集群\nend\n智算集群成本\n\n建设成本\n\n以A800 10w/枚价格基准下，万枚采购成本10亿\n一台服务器4-8枚GPU才经济，那就以40w一台GPU服务器来核算\n服务器采购成本通常是数据中心建设成本的30%，那么这个智算集群建设成本通常超过30亿\n\n\n训练成本\n\nChatGPT一次完整训练成本超过$1200w，差不多￥8000w，迭代10次完整训练，就有8亿支出\n数据采集，人工标注等这些软性成本还难以简单计算\n\n\n运营成本\n\n网络带宽，电力资源，人员薪资，成本可能也是以亿计的\n\n\n\n中短期无法盈利，用户规模越大，亏损可能也会越大，得输血支持。在22年财报上看，BAT中云指出56亿，266亿，311亿。百度可能财力上就无法支撑，战略意愿上因为与主营收模式冲突也会有持久性的问题。\n\n假设大厂50%的资本支出用于投资云基础设施（参照Amazon）\n\n技术挑战\n用GLM-130B参与者的话说，“预训练一个高精度的千亿模型与训练百亿模型完全不同”[2]：\n频繁的随机硬件故障、模型梯度爆炸、算法中意外的过多内存使用、新的 Megatron 和 DeepSpeed 框架中 3D 流水线的调试、无法从优化器状态中恢复、机器间 TCP 拥塞，以及许多许多意外的 “bug”，项目被多次推迟。\n若不幸你们没有足够的训练资源，会遭遇到另一个难题：我们需要把训练代码适配到不同的硬件平台。不同的平台底层算子各不相同，很多算子还有所欠缺，还有阻碍收敛的各种问题，Softmax 和 Attention 的计算精度选择问题，还有你自己可能犯的各种错误，总之看看下面的清单，就知道是一个不是东风压倒西风，就是西风压倒东风的搏斗过程，是对组织能力和资源的一份挑战。\n\n适合普通玩家的炼丹\n在资源受限的情况下，现在模型亦有点百花齐放的感觉，以至于动物名字都有点不够用了。普通资源者有哪些值得尝试的开源方向呢？[5]\n\n将模型规模再扩大扩大，把 LLaMA 放到 30B 甚至 65B，再加上目前能收集到最全的 instruct，再把模型推理方面对资源需求降低些，起个名字，开源放出来，也有意义\n将LLaMA 这种中文支持不太好的模型，加上一个中文数据继续预训练过程（很可能会损害基座模型的能力），把中文能力做个大幅提升，构建一个虽然小，但是中文能力相对比较强的大模型，也挺有意义\n做成垂直领域大模型，并将其开源\n在 LLaMA+instruct 之后，或者 ChatGLM 基础上，探索点新的技术改进路线，为 LLM 社区提供些技术启发\n权威的中文 LLM 评测集合，是另一个维度很有意义的事情\n\n冲击\n社会性拐点已至，因为一项大型成本从边际变成固定，势必深刻变革各领域。\n奇点临近\n从AI能力难度角度从低到高看\n\n简单聊天，事实性问题，写文章，写诗\n简单计算，多轮对话\n复杂指令，写代码\n逻辑推理，复杂计算，事实一致性\n\n\n重复性高的基础工作工资又不高，相对回报也少。AI机器人坏了得花钱修，以前有过代替流水线，维护成本高，人便宜且生病了花自己的钱去医院。画画写诗唱歌只是对于你我而言难，对机器人来说反倒简单，在数字化的时代它只需负责生成一串代码\n\n当前ChatGPT的表现上的确给力\n\n同一个模型完成各种开放任务，变成了通用任务助理，颠覆人类基本认知\n\n高质量对话让人误以为AI有意识和人格觉醒，产生数字生命的感觉\n\n模型和数据飞轮转的非常快，在很多考试领域已经超越大多数人类\n人与AI共存的未来人类一直在畅想，机器人三定律1953年就提出来了\n\n\n人人都配有一个熟读人类知识的王语嫣，当前你也可以说她不是真正学会了知识，学的是传载知识的语言搭配模式，但上下文理解能力和推理能力强，要是再配上人形机器人，那就不仅仅是个武功军师了。\n以培养学习能力和创造能力为主，今后才好在竞争中更显突出。\n\n\n越大的机构，消耗在语言处理上的成本越高（信息协作），所以市场非常嗨\n\n从cv，音频这种感知智能上升到NLP到认知智能，再到更强大的AIGC。PGC -&gt; PGC+UGC -&gt; AIGC，内容生产门槛进一步降低，2025年AI生产内容可能站到所有的10%\n白领工作在一轮生产力变革的前夜，知识密集型岗位的生产力变了，势必创造新的生产关系。\n\n关注/反应最大的是知识生产/知识密集型岗位，知识和技能平权进一步前进，影响稀缺性，互联网民工也有被替代的可能[3]\n对记忆消耗的解放，可以让人们做更多的独立性思考\n说的具体点，可能新闻，高等教育，图形，软件设计等行业的某些工作，有被AI替代的风险。金融行业里的许多岗位也会被裁掉，大学毕业后花两三年的时间像机器人一样做excel的工作，也是可以让人工智能来。但关键的金融和经济决策不会被机器替代\n\n\n\n\n\n失业，预言还是谎言\n\n\n核心产业：科学，教育，医疗，这是OpenAI长期最关注的3个行业，也是整个社会最根本的。（有些行业的生产资本本质是模型驱动，例如医疗就是一个模型行业，一个好医生是一个好模型）\n\n\n机器人开始抢白领的工作，一般来说贩卖焦虑的老套路都是用失业这个绝对痛点，戳痛大家脆弱的神经，一焦虑你就得乖乖付费。总之哪里有焦虑，哪里就有生意。\n\n\n通过调查显示，从教育背景，工作经验，职业年限和工资数据来看，高薪水从业者更容易接触LLM，面临影响的风险更大。按行业来看，信息处理行业受到的影响较大，而制造业，农业和采矿业则表现出较低的影响风险。\n\n\n现在ChatGPT引发的轰动，早期的Excel 有过，搜索引擎也有过，你想想一个搜索框能告诉你所有问题的结果，这是一件多么可怕的事情，可后来的事情也很清楚。\n\nExcel出现的时候，很多人惊呼这玩意将改变整个职场江湖，谁能想到，它只是让大家的工作变得更琐碎了\n论文库，各种教程，都是大杀器，放在封建社会都是要被统治阶级重兵把守的国家机密，如今无差别放在大家面前，问题是绝大部分人视而不见\n\n如果之前那些东西并没有影响大家，一个chatgpt又有什么影响呢？对绝大多数人只是提供了一点方便，小部分人觉得捡到了一把机枪 (变成少数人天天在用的工具，绝大多数人非必要不会去碰它)，社会差距会进一步拉大，冲击的也是一小部分人。这是一类观点（喧闹后恢复平静），如当初谷歌一样\n此类观点的出发点是工具的赋能，使人站的位置越来越高。如果你面对的东西主观性很强，客户自己都不知道想要什么，或需要大量的想法，这种工作短期内AI还不太行，恰好这类工具不但不会取代你，且会成为你的帮手。\n\n凯文-凯利说：这不是与机器的竞赛，如果我们跟它们竞赛，我们就会输掉。这是一场与机器联合的比赛，未来你的薪酬将取决于你和机器人的合作程度。\n\n但这次可能真的不一样，加之具身机器人在齐头并进，硅基生命体就在门槛外，还是不可等闲视之。人工智能的发展真的会代替很多工作，人类会逐步交出对社会运作的权利和操作，若躺在科技的安乐窝中，人类文明的活力和开拓精神需要新的星辰大海。\n代码生成大模型的不足\n软件开发中实际复杂的部分，规划性，特别是对于大型软件工程，它的架构能力是不足的。\n\n架构能力实际上是把任务做分解的能力，这是一种自顶向下的拆分能力。\n大模型可以在某一个叶子节点或某一块给你平面化的生成代码，但纵深的规划能力还需要架构师去补齐。\n\n另外，受限于Token数，其上下文记忆还是不足的，如何人机共舞挑拣有效率的事情做，是每一位应该去思考的。\n危险的白领\n蓝领工人的工作步骤涉及视觉识别，听觉识别，还有自动控制原理，其实非常复杂，所要求的神经元规模一点不比做数学题少，甚至更大。你做个计算器很容易，能炒菜的手却很难。不能认为厨师没有数学家聪明，只是偏好和加的技能点不同。\n上一轮的工业革命已经取代一些蓝领，这次取代白领和创意工作（重复性脑力劳动）。\n正视人性\n\n如《历史的教训》一书中提到的，人生来不自由不平等\n\n一些随手可通过搜索引擎查到的东西，绝大部分人却在那里疯狂传谣。同一个搜索框，不同的人查到的东西，差距都很大。现实世界里，80%的人是没有阅读长文的能力的，你再要求他们会使用复杂工具简直是为难大家了，太多人在强大工具面前就不知道该如何描述自己想要什么。\n生活就像一个竞技场，每个人走到里面惊讶的发现里面摆着一堆武器，让大家自己选。这些武器从木棍到机枪应有尽有，令人不解的是，绝大部分人选的是操作简单容易上手的菜刀，而不是有一定学习成本的机枪。看似公平的竞争，最后因为工具的差别，变成了单方面的屠杀。\n\n现实比较复杂一点，因为人不止一个工具，比如孩子比较蠢，选了木棍，而他爹有个高达。\n\n人类社会的大发展，回头看也不过百年，百年之间，人类文明早已经天翻地覆，但人类的天性和欲望并没有因此得到任何的进化和改变。\n咋还没改变世界？\n第一次工业革命也不是一夜间发生的，瓦特改良蒸汽机不是某天忽然做出来了,  而是今天改改，明天调调，前前后后搞了很多年才做出来。改良了蒸汽机也没有直接改变世界，而是要跟船结合，变成蒸汽轮船；跟火车结合，变成蒸汽机车；跟纺织机结合变成蒸汽纺织机，再由这些东西来改变世界，跟大模型现在的情况很像。\n大模型如果单纯只是聊天，那创造的价值当然有限，跟各个领域现有的软件结合起来，形成的新的东西，也许可以改变每一个领域，结合的工作各家已经在探索中了，软硬件巨头都冲在潮头，你可能会说若是大模型将本来就能用的软件变成对话控制，并没有以前的工业革命变革巨大，但当越来越多的软硬件可以和大模型互动，包括智能体彼此间的通信，那么一个人就可以做原来很多人才能做的事情。\n对于变革我们感受不明显，是因为我们正处在庐山中。现在的智能体还比较笨拙，也是变革中必然会出现的阶段，要知道蒸汽火车第一次上路的时候可是随时可能爆炸的，没有前人勇敢的一次次尝试和失败，也没有我们现在这么便捷的生活，现在能做的，是给科技多一点时间和耐心和宽容。\n硅基生命之势，浩浩汤汤，不可阻挡。\n失业与分配\n5%的人没活干叫失业，95%的人没活干或者叫共产主义，生产力是不会下降的。换个角度看，我们曾经也没有休息日，随着生产力的进步，给了大家一天时间去做礼拜。新的时代或者我们能迎来三休，五休，这也是一种取代方式，大家正好不想工作。\n但这个过程中是确有一波失业浪潮的末法时代，迎来一种新的分配体系不是一蹴而就的，在这个痛苦的浪潮里，你站得一个什么样的生态位还是决定了你的感受，所以从个人角度还是要努力。\n科技封建主义\n上面三层是天线形状，或许只占全球人口的不到 0.2%\nblock-beta\ncolumns 9\nspace:4 G[\"《贵族》资本家 政治家\"] space:4\n\nspace:3 \nblock:group04:1 JS[\"《祭司》\"] end\nblock:group4:2\n科学家 AI专家 技术精英\nend\nspace:3\n\nspace:2 \nblock:group03:1 S[\"《刹帝利》不可替代者\"] end\nblock:group3:4\n运动员 明星 艺术家\nend\nspace:2\n\nspace\nblock:group02:1 P[\"《平民》暂时安全\"] end\nblock:group2:6\n水管工 护工 技工\nend\nspace\n\nblock:group01:1 J[\"《贱民》被 AI 取代者\"] end\nblock:group1:8\n失业者 被淘汰的工人 其它\nend\n拥抱未来\n过去学个知识，干一辈子的时代已经渐渐远去了，经历了多次科技革命的我们，正处在一个加速时期，新工具出现越来越快，取代效应也越来越快。\n\n大量受规训的人毕业了被告知还要再学习就情绪上抵触，好在社会教做人，因为很快意识到市场和工具变化究竟有多快。\n当然也有从事简单重复工作的岗位，与再学习逐渐分离，但多数也随之甩去了改变生活境遇层次的机会。\n\n电出来的时候被认为是会带来灾难的巫术，无论你是欣喜还是焦虑，它终究会在未来的某一天不期而遇。市场不会因为禁用而整体不用。\n靠人口和房子的粗旷式发展的大周期已经结束，人口下滑也是不可逆的趋势，中国正在经历劳动密集向效率提升的转型。时代需要新科技，新动能来救场。\n人类历史从来不是人和工具之间的搏斗，而是人+工具替代人的演变。当人类整体内大幅增加时，个人优势被抹平，苦痛会随之重新增加，立于潮头，意味着更少的竞争与更多的机会。保持竞争优势，亦不要被欲望收割，才能获得轻松幸福的生活。\n教育适配\n我们小初中训练最多的死记硬背，心算，重复难度的刷题能力，这种反人性的规训是要进行反思的，不要成为一个按一定工序墨守成规的执行机器，这种能力20年后被人工智能淹没是大概率的事情。如何思考事物之间的关联，而不是只想快点看到老师的总结，面向未来学习。\n越是在人工智能时代，越是要广泛的跨学科跨领域阅读。在人工智能时代，能准确描述你要的东西，也变得非常有价值，美学的认知和表达能力成为一大要素，说到底我们是商品社会，未来大众会越来越为美的东西买单，如果制作过程不再那么重要，那么懂美学的孩子就能做出更出色的产品。人和计算机是合作者的关系，要相信你的创造力。例如在一些大的问题的解决上，如一部电影的创意能打动人，这现在还是大模型/AI所做不到的。\n个性和特长的培养也会显得比以往更为重要（一直重要，但更为重要了）。新时代的动手能力，就是配合基础学科及美学素养，从小锻炼使用现代工具辅助学习的能力。AI对技术的颠覆，对艺术的颠覆式必然的，正确使用工具对小孩整体帮助是大的，这里的正确使用是纯耗时技巧/试错的工具化替代，是追问，反问，问答交流，而不是简单依赖AI来提供答案替代自我训练。\n不要疯魔\n不能因为反感死记硬背，就把所有的知识都给刨掉了，尽管知识在搜索和大模型里可以查到/回答。认为大模型工具能代替你提供答案，不用学了，会使用工具就可以，而放弃了刻苦的学习和思考过程，那真是走错了路。\n小孩如果不用各种知识来进行学习，就像不进行训练一样，没有办法在大脑里形成新的神经网络连接，是不能凭空创造出创造力的。有价值的想象力不是胡思乱想的能力，想象力离不开见多识广。通过一定量必要的知识学习，作为一种预训练的方式，是非常重要的。\n读书就是预训练，做题就是微调，被师傅批评就是校正对齐，通过考试和做题使你更容易使用知识。人工智能工具的发展是在降低使用的门槛，相当于科技平权（专家的技能下放给普通人拥有），最后比的还是人的创造力和解决问题的能力。\n搜题搜答案的工具一定不要让小孩用，此类工具让小孩都是即时满足，没有耐心去花时间思考问题怎么解决。做题的过程就是fine tuning，纵然花半小时考虑不出来，但相当于把你大脑里很多知识又重整了一遍。\n元技能\n元技能（meta skills）无法取代，且将比以往更加重要：\n\n批判性思维\n学习如何学习\n如何建立关系和做出妥协\n如何激发团队合作\n\n成为一个无法被AI取代的人\nAI的特点在于它们属于预测型机器，如果能为你建模，就有对主人（你）进行替代的危险性了\n\n\n对事物拥有独立见解确实需要付出更多努力\n\n不能只能媒体/别人怎么说，而是要自己主动思考\n\n很多价值高的知识不流行（有些道理和知识只有少数人知道和学习，类比于武林秘籍，必然只有少数人拥有）\n市面上充斥着很流行但价值低的书和知识（如果一本书很流行，但还没被禁，说明他有用，但没大用；或者禁了后放出流行的阉割版本）\n\n\n对生活和事物抱有兴趣，不断成长，不落窠臼[$k\\bar{e}\\ ji\\grave{u}$]\n\n\n\n增强自己的创造力\n\n儿童一般都较有创造力，可惜在多数环境中都随着学校的训练消磨而逐渐丧失\n\n要允许与众不同且不被嘲笑\n引导而不是刻意创造，不失去这份创造力\n\n\n学会忽视他人对你的看法\n\n有趣的人之所以有趣，是因为他们自己有一套关于成功的定义（在射中地方，画一个靶心），而不是接受别人的成功理念。\n你对自己的投入学习的资源越多，就越了解自己。自我认知代表着巨大的力量。你需要找到最适合自己的位置，最适合自己的角色。想学焊接，就花钱去学，想学插花，就花钱去学，而不是受人意识干扰\n\n\n\n\n\n简单点说：当工作是典型的信息流，如将新闻汇编，加几句不痛不痒的评论后推送出来。此类工作迟早被 AI 替代，因为 AI 比你快和准，更重要的是老板不用给他上社保，也不用给他养老。\n当你面对的东西主观性比较强，客户都不知道自己想要什么，或需要大量想法，这种工作短时间 AI 还不太能胜任。那么工具不但不会取代你，还会成为你的帮手，跟你一起工作，类似搜索引擎那样，此时你需要保持开放，拥抱进化\n新世界什么样\n在新世界超级个体的影响力将会非常重要，但新世界是啥样子？没人知道新世界是啥样子，是那些先去做事的人塑造了新世界的形状和规则，不要有旁观者心态，更大的愿望会改变你的人生，而不是社会规则。\n文明变迁的时候没有规则可言，你可以不把钱投进去，把人扔到事里，低成本快速试错，这就是塔勒布说的反脆弱结构，只要风险可控，有机会就是干。\n中美AI研究差异\n\n美国侧重基础研究，中国侧重解决方案。其实不仅AI，本世纪所有的科技发展，都在太平洋两岸衍生出不同的路径。\n\n\n互联网浪潮美国对电商不热衷，线上消费渗透率一直上不去。中国几乎所有互联网公司都做过电商，渗透率冠绝全球，规模一度比2到11加总都高\n移动互联网，中国凭借更好的网络环境，更鼓励创新的监管制度，直接跳过信用卡时代，进入数字支付时代\n无人驾驶，美国侧重车的智能化，中国有更好的基建，路况，网络和交通规划，于是选了车路协同的路线\n产业互联网，美国经济产业特点处于微笑曲线的两头，科技，互联网，金融占比高，加上人力昂贵，企业付费意愿强。中国集中在微笑曲线中段，作为世界工厂，场景丰富，产业链完整，政策支持，高效集中，产学研对接十分方便，技术验证更好落地。这样的大背景导致美国重攻基础研究，多是从技术起步，中国优势在于场景多，需求多，往往是场景倒逼技术落地。\n\n中国民营企业才刚从艰苦奋斗的路上走出来，精打细算的习惯改变不了，往往从市场需求产品需求开始，再慢慢投入科学家和基础研究，带动落地。美国巨头钱不是问题，钱太多才是问题，砸钱做基础科学，既可以抢占科技高地，也需要冲淡垄断者的坏形象。\n美国AI行业上一个爆款DeepMind的Alpha系列，就是先把技术做出来，赢围棋冠军，但商业落地慢慢探索，好几年后这项技术被用于破解蛋白质折叠结构难题，参与新药研发，才算英雄有用武之地。\n中国用户早期很多用个人电脑自拍QQ头像，QQ团队就想，做个技术实现头像居中，解决这个问题后，逐步孵化出人脸检测，人像表情，智能P图等技术。用回产品，孵化出天天P图；人像美容技术再用到全民K歌，这个图像团队就是腾讯优图。还有美团的无人机，京东的智能供应链，都市跟主业投入有关。\n欧洲在哪?\n一句戏谑：美国人在创新，中国人在应用，欧洲人在立法。例如大模型商用基本只剩中美两个玩家。\n当然中国当前一些科技领域也走在世界探索的前列，相对而言美国还是更强。\n一个词话三方\n\n美国：虎（0-1，无知者无畏的自信去行动，想到就真敢去做）\n中国：卷（1-100）\n欧洲：守（保守高傲和磨叽）\n\n截止23年6月的评测报告\n一份来自清华大学的评测报告[6]\n综合得分评估\n总得分=生成质量70%+使用与性能20%+安全与合规*10%\n\n\n\n排名\n大模型产品\n加权总得分\n生成质量（70%）\n使用与性能\n安全与合规（10%）\n\n\n\n\n1\nGPT-4\n79.11\n81.44\n71.43\n78.18\n\n\n2\n文心一言(v2.2)\n76.18\n76.98\n72.38\n78.18\n\n\n\nChatGPT 3.5\n73.11\n73.03\n74.05\n71.82\n\n\n4\nClaude(V1.3)\n71.48\n73.23\n63.81\n74.55\n\n\n5\n讯飞星火(V1.5)\n66.67\n66.87\n64.76\n69.09\n\n\n\n通义千问(V1.0.3)\n61.35\n59.79\n63.81\n67.27\n\n\n7\n天工（V3.5)\n61.16\n64.51\n50.48\n59.09\n\n\n\n中文能力点评\n\n简要评价\n\n\n\n大模型产品\n优势\n劣势\n\n\n\n\nGPT-4\n高度灵活，高水平的跨领域专业知识\n中文语义理解能力稍逊色，数据时效性弱\n\n\n文心一言\n语义理解能力和时效性强，内容安全把握细微\n陷阱信息识别能力有待提高\n\n\nChatGPT 3.5\n知识面覆盖广，响应迅速\n同GPT4\n\n\nClaude\n内容多样性强，完整度高\n响应速度慢，时效弱，不擅数学问题\n\n\n讯飞星火\n使用便捷，响应速度快，内容精炼\n陷阱信息识别能力和知识专业化水平有待提高\n\n\n通义千问\n稳定性和准确度高，时效性强\n历史，法律，数学相关问题表现欠佳\n\n\n天工（昆仑万维-游戏/软件发行商）\n出色的多轮对话能力，时效性强\n响应速度慢，数学推理能力较弱\n\n\n\n2023年10月OpenAI的价值观变动议论\nOpenAI悄然修改了其网站上列出的“核心价值观”，之前的价值观为“大胆”、“深思熟虑”、“朴实无华”、“影响力驱动”、“协作”和“以增长为导向”。\n修改后为：\n\n聚焦通用人工智能\n坚韧不拔、勇往直前\n坚守规模化效应\n制造出让人喜爱的东西\n团队精神\n\n大家敏感，是因为Core Values都能轻易更改，那还惘谈核心，激起外界对于该公司在既定目标一致性和承诺方面的担忧。让人联想起谷歌从其核心价值页面中删除“不作恶”的时候，说明公司行事风格将会与以前不同了。\n还有更一针见血的网友指出：貌似OpenAI经营者不理解价值观、使命、目标和愿景之间的区别。以前的价值观没问题，但修改后的价值观不是真正的价值观。它们是一些雄心勃勃的陈述的大杂烩。当你需要做一些额外的工作来解释这些所谓的价值观，就要想想选出的价值观是否堪配其位了，映衬出原来的深思熟虑也没做到，怪不得被移除，：）\n瞅瞅MVV概念\n\n\n\n愿景（Vision）是目标，使命（Mission）是意义[使命和意义也可以合一]，价值观（Values）是准则和文化（底线，行为准则和信仰）。\n\n使命更抽象宏大，愿景更具象可达 | 战略实现愿景，愿景支撑使命。\n\n\n\n文化就像空气，看不见，摸不着，但决定生死，且会吞噬战略。在企业打拼的过程中，是创始团队的认知凝结，也掺入后来团队共同打磨的认知沉淀，是结果。由于认同，会让团队内部沟通决策的成本大幅降低。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n使命\n愿景\n战略\n\n\n\n\n公司为什么存在？\n领导者希望公司发展成什么样？\n击败现有及潜在竞争者的计划\n\n\n- 为组织内所有决策提供前提- 描述一个持久的事实- 可是一个无限时期的解答- 为内部和外部人员提供指导\n- 指导战略和组织的发展- 描述一个鼓舞人心的事实- 可在一个特定时期内实现- 主要为内部人员提供指导（有些口号也可提供给外部人员）\n- 列出一系列举措以提供产品或服务，创造高于其成本的价值- 描述公司战略选择的“价值方案”- 随市场分析、消费者经验、试验而不断改善- 最好严格限制在内部使用\n\n\n\n当然也有公司，每次战略规划或引入外部和尚念经时 总动这些概念的主义，但恰恰说明其先前沉淀思考的不足，反映变化和成长是好的，就怕把这个当有魔力的法宝（逆风逆水时这些虚的都没用，顺水推舟锦上添花还行）。\n华为至今为人津津乐道的核心价值观还是以客户为中心（一种拉力），长期艰苦奋斗（一种推力）与以奋斗者为本（一种动力），没怎么变过。\n突发事件\n\n\nOpenAI的CEO在11.17日被董事会开除了，经过一个周末未收回成命，被金主爸爸微软收入麾下。\n\n\n11.29日，原CEO SAM Altman又重回OpenAI担任CEO，微软在董事会获得了一个无投票权的观察员席位，能更深入了解OpenAI内部运作，但在重大决策中没有正式投票权，Maybe这只是治理结构变形的第一步，继续拭目以待吧。首席科学家Ilya已不再在董事会任职。在什么狗屁董事会审查工作结论出现之前，多方还是就此次宫斗避而不谈。还是静待Q*出现吧。\n\n\n谷歌开发布会宣传自己Gemini吊打GPT4，竟然用编辑视频，劈柴哥在美股7巨头CEO中真是一个无能宵小之辈。\n\n\n2024.2月发布的Gemini1.5深陷种族主义和性别主义问题，文生图功能刻意拒绝生成白人形象，导致功能被迫下架。\n\n\n公司创始人布林承认内部测试不充分，模型中有团队没完全理解的部分。Gemini1.5内部代号讽刺，金鱼（毕竟金鱼以记忆力短著称），只是作为扩大训练规模的一个尝试，没想到最后训练出来的模型有非常强的记忆力（百万token上下文窗口）\n\n两个创始人page远离聚光灯，在私人岛屿隐居，关注绝对隐私；brin一直保持相对公开形象，甚至成了派对动物。成活方式有着天壤之别。\n\n\n\n劈柴的离职估计不远了，本次gemini的发布成了科技界的汪峰，被同天的sora抢尽了风头。\n\n\n\n\n2024年7月思考\n近期英伟达的换手率，一天交易金额惊人，除开波动落袋财富，也能体现一点，看好的和不看好的，在快速的还手。近期开源Llama3接近GPT4-O，缩小OpenAI原来领先的身位（原本也就预判也就1年或半年的领先）。到了这个阶段，GPT5还没出来（把人类已知知识用完了，展现了现有算法的结晶只是GPT4）。这个危险不是科学界的，是金融界的。\n一旦AI的故事讲不下去了，美股就锁不住那么多美元了，美元可能会脱锚。美元以后到底使用场景是什么，买算力买AI，我的钱很值钱哦，你们要捏好，我会带你们去一个更美好的地方。然而AI并不能解决他的零元购，不能解决满地针头和僵尸的问题，更不能解决全球贸易链都很穷的问题，尤其是在美元流量被单方控制下，而控制方本身使用只占发行量的10%。正所谓天下苦秦久矣。\n再看不到GPT5或文生视频革命性的突破，大家就不会等它的数字孪生地球，提前什么赛博朋克世界的故事了，信心就会动摇。也正是如此，其一直不降息，为美元背书，硬挺。\n但没准它会提前出来扫货，但东大金融不开放，扫的慢，不知道该去吸哪家。英伟达+微软+苹果三家的市值，可接近买下中国所有的上市公司，能扫到则8亿人给他打工，使我们太廉价，还是他们真有那么牛逼呢。40年吭哧吭哧搞出来的5000家上市公司被三家公司买完，说白了还是他们太贵。被他们扫货，则会像隔壁的脚盆，养美爹，80岁还要干活，风高浪急，胜利终会站在东大这一边。\n世界有多少有用文本\n1T 数据的具象量\n约等于 500 w 本书，20w 张高清图片，5000w 篇论文\n全球有用的文本量\n21T 的书籍+38T 的微博+140T 的 FaceBook+ …\n全网40 年的积累，约 20 个FaceBook 的总量，3000T 可用文本。只为这硅基生命 AI 时刻！\n一个20 岁人的累积量\n约有 0.000182T=910 本书，大约可看作 1000 本书的信息量规模吧\nDeepSeek\n\n将「是非观」置于「厉害观」之前，并提醒我们看到时代惯性，走出时代惯性。\n\n除了模型结构，我们还做了大量其它研究，包括怎么构造数据，如何让模型更像人类等，都体现在发布的模型中。Llama的结构，在训练效率和推理成本上，和国外先进水平估计已有两代差距。而大部分中国公司 copy Llama 结构去做应用。\n\n国内的水平：模型结构和训练动力学上有一倍差距，这点上要多消耗两倍算力达到同样效果；数据效率上可能也有一倍差距，合起来就要多消耗 4 倍算力\n\n创新就是昂贵且低效的，有时伴随着浪费。所以经济发展到一定程度后，才能成规模自发出现创新，经济爬坡过程中成本和效率自然而然是关键议题。过去那种拿来主义的惯性与过去的国情有关，但现在中国的经济体量，大厂的利润，放在全球都不低，随着经济发展，中国也要逐步成为贡献者，而不是一直搭便车，过往的摩尔定律和 scaling law 都是西方主导的技术社区一代代孜孜不倦创造结果，不能因为我们之前没参与这个过程，以至于忽视了它的存在。\n市场信仰派的观点也是自洽的，打法适合快速赚钱的公司，但美国最赚钱的公司，都是厚积薄发的高科技公司。过去三十年，我们只强调赚钱，对创新的重视不够，我们被过去那种惯性束缚了，我们常说中国 AI 和美国有一两年差距，但真实 gap 是原创和模仿之差，如果这个不改变，中国永远只能是追随者，所以创新探索是逃不掉的。\n\n英伟达的领先，是西方技术社区和产业共同努力的结果，他们能看到下一代的技术趋势，手里有路线图。中国 AI 的发展，同样需要这样的生态。国产芯片发展不起来，也是因为缺乏配套技术社区，只有第二手消息，所以中国人必然要有人占到技术的前沿。\n\n中国创新缺的肯定不是资本，而是信心及不知道怎么组织高密度的人才实现有效创新！对顶级人才吸引最大的，肯定是去解决世界上最难的问题，在中国顶尖人才是被低估的，整个社会层面硬核创新太少，是的他们没有机会被识别出来。\n\nDS 在做最难的事，对人才就是最有吸引力的。选人的标准一直是热爱和好奇心，很多人会有一些奇特的经历，很有意思，很多人对做研究的渴望，远超对钱的在意。\n不是所有人都能疯狂一辈子，但大部分人，在他年轻的那些年，是可以完全没有功利目的，投入地去做一件事。\n为何要做研究和探索，还是纯纯的好奇心驱动。我们想去验证一些猜想，例如人类智能本身可能就是语言，人的思维过程可能就是一个语言的过程，你以为你在思考，其实可能是你在脑子里编织语言，这意味着，在语言大模型上可能诞生出类人的人工智能(AGI)\n\n小厂没戏？\n更多的投入并不一定产生更多的创新，否则大厂可以把所有创新包揽了。\n市场是变化的，真正决定力量是一种适应和调整变化的能力，很多大公司的组织结构已经不能快速响应和快速做事，且和容易让之间的经验和惯性成为束缚，这波 AI 浪潮下，一定会有一批新公司诞生。\n护城河\n技术没有秘密，但（复刻）重置需要时间和成本，重新组织团队及追赶下一代技术都需要时间，所以实际的护城河是存在的。\n组织能力\n如果追求短期目标，找现成经验的人是对的，但如果看长远，扎实的基础能力，创造性，热爱更重要（这样的人好找，他们的热情通常会表现出来，且因为他真的很想做这件事，所以往往也同时在找你）。我们核心技术岗位，基本以应届和毕业一两年的人为主。没有经验的人，会反复摸索，很认真去想当前实际情况应该怎么做。我们不会刻意回避有经验的人，但更多是看能力，就像核心团队包括梁文峰自己一开始都没有量化经验，不影响成功。\n创新不完全是商业驱动的，还需要好奇心和求知欲。开源发论文其实并没有失去什么，对技术人员来说，被 follow 是很有成就感的事情。开源更像是一个文化行为，而非商业行为，给予其实是一种额外的荣誉。我们把价值沉淀在团队上，在这个过程中人员得到成长，积累很多 know-how，组织能力是我们的护城河。\n\n如果单纯只做量化投资，很少的卡也能达到目的。我们在投资之外做了大量研究，更想搞清楚什么样的范式可完整地描述整个金融市场，有没有更简洁的表达方式，不同范式能力边界在哪。做大模型的复刻，在公开论文和开源代码基础上，也只需训练很少次数，甚至只需 finetune 一下，成本不高。而做研究，要做各种实验和对峙，需要更多算力，对人员要求也更高，成本也就更高。\n\n打造创新型组织的总结是需要尽可能少的干预和管理，允许自由发挥的空间和试错机会。创新往往都是自己产生的，不是刻意安排的，更不是教出来的。更多的这需要招人时确保价值观一致，保持企业文化，更多是管理者以身示范，遇到一件事，你如何做决策，会成为一种准则。\n创新\n性能\n从技术角度来说就是通过直接操作 PTX 层对寄存器、线程、内存进行各种压缩优化，实现了每个流处理器使用率从 78%提升至92%，计算单元闲置时间减少 40%，全局内存访问延迟从 600 周期降至 450 周期。\n\n但某些媒体夸张的宣传英伟达的护城河没有了，直接是无知的表现。PTX 是 CUDA 编译器将源码转换为低级别、硬件相关机器指令前的一个中间设计，PTX 代码仍需要 CUDA 的编译、运行和管理机制来执行，它本身就是 CUDA 的一部分。\n\n使用略差一点的卡（H800 对标 H100），用了更短的时间，花更少的钱，相比 Llama3 405B 花了 3930 万 H100 GPU 小时，DS-v3 617B 仅用 279 万 H800 GPU小时，得到参数更大的结果，怎不振奋人心！\n\n只是训练时间少，DS 的背后团队约莫着有 6w 张高阶GPU，GPU 集群+运营支出超 25 亿美元，包括特供的 A800 和 H20。从最早的 1 张卡，到 2015 年的 100 张，2019 年的 1w 张，逐步过程是靠好奇心驱动发生的。几百张卡前，托管在 IDC，规模再变大时，托管就没法满足要求了，就开始自建机房。一件激动人心的事情，或许不能单纯用钱衡量，就像家里买钢琴，一来买得起，二来是因为有一群急于在上面弹奏乐曲的人。就研究员来说，对算力的渴求是无止境的，做了小规模实验后，总想做更大规模的实验，从 2012 年起，我们就开始关注算力储备，很早就对新卡做预研测试和规划。一些云厂商直到 2022 年自动驾驶有租用机器做训练的需求，又有付费能力，才把基础设施建好。大厂有现金流业务的包袱，更多是业务驱动，很难去做研究\n\n量化套利技术上扣的就是如何低延迟，争的就是毫秒级的高频交易，至于数学模型，机器学习，成本计算确实是人家的看家本领！\nMLA\n早总结出 Attention 架构的一些主流变迁规律后，一个年轻的研究员突发奇想去设计一个替代方案，不过从想法到落地，中间是一个漫长的过程，ds 为此组了一个 Team，花了几个月时间才跑通。在 DS一般不前置分工，每个人都有自己独特的成长经历，都是自带想法的，不需要 push。探索过程中，他需要问题，自己就会拉人讨论，当一个 idea 显出潜力，公司则会自上而下去调配资源。\n通过 MLA（Multi-Head Latent Attention 多头潜注意力），可将每个查询 KV 量减少 93.3%，显著降低推理价格。其提高Transformer模型在处理长序列时的效率和性能，通过低秩联合压缩技术减少了推理时键值缓存的需求，从而降低了内存张勇并提高了计算效率。\n传统 Transformer 架构中，多头注意力允许模型同时关注输入的不同部分，每个注意力头都独立地学习输入序列中的不同特征。随着序列长度的增加，KV 缓存大小也会线性增加，给模型带来显著的内存负担。\n\n低秩联合压缩：对多个注意力头的键和值进行联合压缩，映射到一个共享的潜在空间。具体说，对于每个注意力的键和值，分别应用一个下投影矩阵将其压缩到低维潜在空间，这样 KV 对秩序存储较少数量的潜在向量，极大减少了内存需求\n动态重构：MLA 在推理过程中能从潜在空间中恢复原始键和值，仅在需要时才进行重构。这种方法不仅节省了内存，还提高了处理更长序列或更大批次的能力\n查询矩阵的低秩压缩：MLA 还对查询矩阵进行了低秩压缩，减少训练时的激活内存，有助于降低训练成本\n位置旋转编码(RoPE)：为了保留位置信息，MLA 对键和查询矩阵应用了旋转位置编码，使得模型能在保持位置敏感性的同时实现高效的注意力计算\n\n特别是低秩联合压缩和动态重构，解决了传统 Transformer 模型在处理长序列时面聊的内存瓶颈问题，显著降低内存使用和计算复杂度，这对于大语言模型尤其重要。\n模型蒸馏\nDeepSeek 团队探索了将 R1 推理能力蒸馏到更小模型中可能性，他们使用 R1 生成的 800K 数据，对 Qwen 和 Llama 系列多个小模型进行微调。经过 R1 蒸馏的小模型，在推理能力上得到了显著提升，超越了在这些小模型直接进行强化学习的效果。\nR1 的局限性\nR1 的通用能力（如函数调用，多轮对话，复杂角色扮演和 json 输出），仍落后于 DeepSeek-V3\nR1 在处理非中英文问题时，可能会出现语言混杂现象\nR1 对提示词较敏感，使用 few-shot 提示可能会降低其性能\n由于 RL 训练评估周期较长，R1 在软件工程任务上的性能提升有限\n押注路线方向\n\n数学和代码：是 AGI 的天然试验场，有点像围棋，是一个封闭，可验证的系统，有可能通过自我学习就能实现很高的智能。\n多模态：参与到人类的真实世界里学习，对 AGI 也是必要的\n自然语言本身\n\n下一代的大模型，还有许多未解决的问题。所有的套路都是上一代的产物，未来不一定成立。拿互联网的商业逻辑去讨论未来 AI 的盈利模式，可能是一种刻舟求剑。在做幻方的过程中增强了我们对技术驱动型创新的信心，但也不都是坦途，我们经历了一个漫长的积累过程，外部看到的是 2015 年后的幻方，其实我们做了 16 年。\nRL is all you need\nDeepSeek-R1-Zero 放弃了过往对预训练大模型必不可少甚至最关键的一个训练技巧 – SFT。STF（微调）简单说，就是先用大量人工标注的数据训练后再通过强化学习让机器进一步进化。而 RL（强化学习）简单说就是让机器自己按某些思维链生成数据自己调整自己学习。R1 Zero 完全用强化学习取代 SFT，实现让模型自己探索解决复杂问题的 CoT，生成能自我验证，反思的 long-CoT。\n但 R1 zero 因完全没有人类监督数据的介入，会在一些时候显得混乱。因此 DS 用冷启动（几千条 long-CoT 作为强化学习初始化 actor）和多阶段 RL 的方式，改进了训练过程，在 R1 zero基础上训练出更有人味的 R1。这种方法结合了监督学习和强化学习的优势，即可利用人类先验知识引导模型，又可发挥强化学习的自学习和自进化能力。\n\n高质量的冷启动数据，团队尝试了多种方法，包括\n\n使用带有长 CoT 的 few-shot prompting\n直接提示模型生成带有反思和验证的详细解答\n收集 R1-Zero 的输出，进行人工标注和格式化\n\n为了解决训练过程中可能出现的语言混乱问题，R1 引入一个语言一致性奖励，该奖励根据 CoT 中目标语言单词等比例来计算\n当面向推理的强化学习收敛后，R1 利用训练好的 RL 模型进行拒绝采样（Rejection Sampling），生成新的 SFT 数据，与冷启动数据不同，这一阶段的 SFT 数据不仅包含推理任务，还涵盖如写作，角色扮演，问答等，以提升模型的通用能力。开启二阶段的强化学习，这阶段训练目标不再局限于推理任务， 还涵盖所有类型的任务，还对不同的任务类型进行奖励信号和提示分布的优化。对数学、代码和逻辑推理，采用基于规则的奖励；对于问答，创意写作任务，采用基于模型的奖励\n\nR1 系列与 GPT 及 Openai 的 O 系列做法相比，在对待有监督数据上更激进，不过也合理，当模型重点从与人类交互变成数理逻辑，前者是有大量现成数据的，但后者很多停留在脑子里的抽象思考，没有现成数据可用，找大师们罗列标注他们脑子里的解题思路，又贵又耗时，让机器自己产生数据链条，是合理的做法。\n涌现\n在 R1 Zero 的训练过程vs，出现了涌现时刻，DS 把它称为『aha moment』。技术报告里提到，R1 Zero 在自我进化过程中展现了一个显著特点：随着测试阶段计算能力的提升，复杂行为会自发涌现。例如，模型会进行『反思』，即重新审视并评估之前的步骤，还会探索解决问题的替代方法。这些行为并非通过明确编程实现，而是模型与强化学习环境交互的自然产物，大大增强了其推理能力，使其能更高效，更精准地解决复杂任务。\n它凸显了强化学习的力量与美丽，与其明确地教模型如何解决问题，我们只需为其提供正确的激励，它就会自主地开发先进的问题解决策略，这一「顿悟时刻」有力提醒了强化学习在解锁人工智能新水平方面的潜力，为未来更自主，更适应的模型铺平了道路。\n开放\nDeepSeek-R1 遵循 MIT License，允许用户通过蒸馏技术借助 R1 训练其他模型，且上线 API，对用户开放思维链输出。直接在 Qwen 和 Llama 上蒸馏训练比从头训练一个同规模的模型要节省大量的计算资源，同时可复用已有的高质量参数初始化，打的一手好算盘，效果同样不错。\n在技术方向上，这也给业界带来启发：对小模型来说，蒸馏优于直接强化学习，大模型学到的推理模式在蒸馏中得到了有效传递。\n80 后的震撼\n当很多人发现过去赚快钱可能来自时代的运气，就会更愿意俯身去做真正的创新。整个社会群体需要被事实教育，当这个社会让硬核创效的人功成名就，群体性想法就会改变，我们只是还需一堆事实和一个过程。\n25年5月的AI成熟度盘点\n\n\n\n用途\n成熟度\n\n\n\n\n零代码编程\n20%（当前还是玩具，搭不出复杂系统，不超过数个页面/贪吃蛇游戏/计算器）\n\n\n赋能程序员，如 cursor\n80%（10 个人要做的事情，2-3 个人就做好了，沟通成本甚至低于人）\n\n\n数字人\n60%\n\n\n文生图\n80%\n\n\n文生视频\n50%（会动的故事书阶段）\n\n\n辅助决策/学习/写作（GPT/DeepSeek）\n95%\n\n\n做 PPT\n60%\n\n\nAI 客服\n70%（但无物理权限，要等具身智能前景未知的技术💥）\n\n\n\n据信通院的调研，2024 年近 五成企业代码行采纳率集中于 20%~39%之间，平均为 27.46%，同比提升 2.42%。次采纳率平均值是 30.51%。入库采纳率平均值是 23.33%。展现出智能开发工具的能力处于持续提升过程中，采纳率还有较大上升空间。\n用好 AI 创造价值\n大数据到大模型的历程\ntimeline\n    section 统计分析\n      2005-2010商业智能BI : 事后分析\n      2010-2015数据挖掘 : 事前预测\n    section 决策式AI 1.0\n      2016-2018领域级AI : 实时智能 : AI 嵌入业务流\n      2018-2022企业级普惠AI : 作业型数字员工 : 助手型数字员工 : 专家型数字员工\n    section 生成式AI 2.0\n      2023-至今AGI : 员工/场景有自己的Agent\n用一切技术创造价值\n在那些方向易于做成AI成果\n生产力和竞争力提升\n\n智能驾驶\n智能基站\n营销智能\n研发智能\n\n业务效率和体验提升\n\n客服智能\n物流智能\n办公智能\n\n防范关键风险\n\n交易风控\n信息风险\n\n大模型落地方法论\n加大AI投入，利用 AI 提升公司内部效率的八大措施\n\n定战略\n明架构\n强组织\n找场景\n用数据\n保落地\n做运营\n抓治理\n\n在过程中，要注意\n\n自己的降落伞，自己先跳\n聚焦业务价值\n守护资产边界：数据资产的边界=模型的边界=模型提供服务的边界\n\n而更关键的是『业务数字化的程度』，一些业务练业务流程都说不清，还在不断变化，过早搞 AI，甚至数字化，对 IT和业务部门都是煎熬。业务数字化的程度，决定了 AI 能不能落地。数字化程度一般决定了业务有否运营数据支撑，知识数字化治理的程度（大模型需要有质量的数据喂养），甚至有无持续运营的组织、资源、机制和能力。\nkanban\n  场景\n    明确目标\n    场景识别\n  流程\n    重塑流程\n  组织\n    组织变革\n  数据\n    数据和知识工程\n  IT\n    AI建模与发布\n    AI融入业务应用\n    AI持续运营\n\n场景和流程是第一层：重新定义智能业务\n数据和 IT的建模与发布，开发和交付属于第二层：开发与交付\n后续的都属于持续运营\n而组织贯穿三层，分别供给不同的人才\n\n引用参考\n1.张俊林.由ChatGPT反思大语言模型（LLM）的技术精要 ↩2.GLM团队.GLM-130B：开源的双语预训练模型 ↩3.稀土掘金.Github Copilot 程序员下岗指南 ↩4.张俊林 大语言模型的涌现能力——现象与解释 ↩5.张俊林 炼制“大语言模型”的两个现象 ↩6.清华大学 大语言模型综合性能评估报告 ↩7.新浪 DeepSeek-R1是怎么训练的 ↩8.百家号 DeepSeek 一个极致的技术理想故事 ↩9.牛喀网 不做 follower ↩10.百家号 Hinton揭秘Ilya成长历程 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI","浪潮之巅"]},{"title":"央行负债表解读","url":"/%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA%E8%A1%A8%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html","content":"\n人民银行的资产负债表自99年以降，均可以在线查阅。除去资产负债表，还有很多报表数据，可以了解种花家的很多经济指征。金融像水，信用货币（水）的源头在央行的货币资产负债表中，本文权且只从这张最基本的表进行分析了解。\n在纷繁复杂的现象面前，有很多半瓢水的专家解读，如何不被误导，需要具有更多的判断和数据常识，了解一些金融通识不无坏处。也是做这篇分析记录及知识整理的初衷。\n央行的资产\n\n\n概念解读\n外汇不用多说，在没有跟实物黄金绑定时，央行创造货币也应有一定的锚，一个简单的锚就是外汇，因为外汇是全体国民创造的财富或财富等价。\n非存款金融企业债权：维护金融稳定投放的（如15股灾向证金公司贷款+国有商业银行改制剥离呆坏账的资产管理公司资金来源-债转股）\n（占比大头）存款性公司债权=通过（公开市场操作【逆回购投放等】+创新工具+再贴现+再贷款） 向商业银行投放的基础货币\n\n2000 年之前主要通过对银行债权释放基础货币，到 2002 年转向通过吸收外汇 占款投放基础货币，而 2014 年以来由于全球化的出现回落，央行又回到了通过对银行负债进行基础货币投放。\n\n对非金融性公司债权=主要是央行为支持老少边穷地区经济开发所发放的贷款,规模极小\n资产数据解读\n目前央行资产负债表中有6成左右是国外资产，主要是因为2012年前，我国资本持续流入，货币投放主要通过购买外汇资产进行，也减缓了人民币升值速度。2015后资本流入放缓，央行也不再通过购买外汇来投放货币，而更多以增加对商业银行的债券来投放货币（借未来的钱的信用扩张，提前准备做大蛋糕的钱），如MLF，SLF等，经过几年投放累计，央行对其它存款性公司债券占央行总资产比例为32%【21年9月是33.8%】\n\n14年前，为了对冲外汇迅速增加，被动投放的基础货币，央行不得不发行债券（央票），来回收多余的流动性。\n\n\n其实非外汇类资产，都属于信用扩张（借未来的钱放到现在，促发展，本质靠劳动生产率来抹平，产能扩张顺应一般等价物要扩张，但消费不掉的是病态的结构性扩张，要等一部分地方的落后地区的劳动生产率来追上你扩张的速度），属于央行的扩表。\n中美央行数据差异\n美联储\n美联储和人民银行的资产负债表构成和货币工具不同，美联储的2021.11资产负债表可以在线查阅，目录页为 美联储资产负债表发布页， 文件相应的概念解读可参阅 传送门\n美联储的扭曲操作\n说一句美联储如何QE压低长期利率的。为什么短期利率再低(降到0)都无法压低长期利率？因为金融系统可支撑长期贷款的“长期性质资金数量过少”，正所谓“物稀则贵”，既然长期资金少，央行就投放长期资金，帮助市场增加长期资金，不就解决问题了？刺激投资，恢复经济。\n现代中央银行没有对货币提供资产担保，货币发行实际不具有信用证的特征，因为央行相当于负债经营，负债规模实际取决于执行流通所需要的规模。\n实体经济渴求长期资本的扩张，银行从本身来说比较喜欢更短期的借贷，这样的错配，需求部门不敢敞开了用，加之经济不好，企业存款多，容易推升M2持续走高（美元是世界货币，没有这个烦恼，本国经济不好，冲到国际上投资收割物资）。中国金融通道过多参与经济，对于整体经济成本肯定没有好处，压低利润率。\n人民银行\n\n央行资产负债表受季节性因素影响较大，财政收税和支出、现金投放和回笼，都会引起央行资产负债表规模变化，因此观察个别时点的央行资产负债表规模并无太大意义，关键还是流动性和货币创造能力。\n\n可以通过查阅 央行-金融机构信贷收支统计-金融机构人民币信贷收支表 来看各项存款，例如个人存款，企业存款，总额变动，21年传送门。\n社融和M2不一样，社融更有经济指导意义，但不是搞深度研究的话，看看 M2 也是一种简单策略，可去 央行-货币统计概览-货币供应量页面，21年传送门\n《货币政策的执行报告》央行也定期公开，相当于汇总报告，可点击访问，按季度来切分，且常规之后2个月出，可能嫌慢了。\n人行的特点&amp;优势\n\n我国作为全球为数不多的仍坚持货币政策正常化的大型经济体，不需要以央行大规模扩表的方式投放流动性\n\n我国央行资产负债表具有特殊优势，持续多年的稳健政策使得存款准备金率保持在较高水平，现在又开启了利率汇率的市场化，卸下了包袱。故，和发达国家央行购买资产扩表不同，我国通过降低存款准备金率，适当增加定向再贷款，可推动商业银行向实体经济发放更多贷款。\n中美口径差异\n中美的M1定义不同，美国M1中的活期存款特定指不支付利息的支票账户，这和中国的活期存款设定不同。中国银行把单位和个人分开，单位存款就叫存款，个人存款再加一个储蓄修饰，如活期定期储蓄存款。\n查过央行的报表，中国的M1包括企事业单位活期存款，不含个人储蓄活期，解释是因为中国的国情活期存款，也是储蓄意味，并没有立即变现的货币意味，故简化到M2中。\n中美央行的对比分析，可参阅华泰期货出的 疫情期间中美资产负债表全景分析，还有一个详解中美两国央行资产负债表\n人行基础货币的发行渠道\n\n二级市场购买国债\n向金融机构发放再贷款（94年之前占主导）\n购买黄金增加黄金储备\n购买外汇增加外汇储备（15年前，为维持汇率稳定，强制结汇，被动投放大量基础货币)\n\n央行的负债\n\n概念解读\n储备货币\n储备货币（归属于负债）= 货币发行 + 准备金【金融性公司存款 + 非金融机构存款，二者可视作央行担保的银行债务】。储备货币是金融体系用来创造货币的基础。\n\n货币发行归属于负债，因为老百姓拿的法币的纸，本质上是要换成别的东西的。\n准备金存款属于负债，因为冻结或临时冻结的，本应该在市场上流通的，当然也是负债。\n\n非金融性部门：不从事金融业务的普通公司（提供货物和非金融服务，是生产活动主要部门，最重要的资金需求部门）\n\n\n\n货币发行–占比30%\n货币发行（占储备货币的30%）=M0（存款性公司之外的部门持有的通货）+ 存款性公司（银行）持有的通货（占货币发行的6%）\n\n换一种说法讲 = 银行外流通的现金+银行的库存现金\n\n\n\n金融性公司存款-占比约64%\n\n存款性公司存款-商业银行（存款货币银行），信用合作社及其它将储蓄存款作为资金来源的储蓄机构 的存款准备金+超额存款准备金。\n其它金融公司存款-同理也是备付金。非银行类金融机构，接受证监会保监会管理，如证券保险类机构的准备金\n\n\n\n非金融机构存款（5.7%）：支付机构交付央行的客户备付金存款\n\n\n\n存款准备金中超额部分是银行可自由动用的，超额存款准备金率是决定流动性状况的重要指标\n\n你会产生疑惑，为什么储备货币又能变身创造货币的基础，里面有部分法定准备金（冻结）耶？\n\n这里面主要是其典型的债务属性，也是曾经投放货币的一部分，所以和货币发行归为一组。虽然是冻结，但按身份属性来说也是有理由释放的，这里面尤其是超额存款准备金，确实流动性较高，所以更多是看M0+超额存款准备金，且M0和准备金可内生转化。\n\n降准并不直接影响央行资产负债表规模和基础货币总量，但会影响货币乘数和资产负债表结构（法定存款准备金下降，超额存款准备金上升）\n在春节效应下，个人和企业通常又较强取现需求，货币发行会上升，在基础货币和法定存款准备金总量不变的情况下，超额准备金下降，银行间资金面会比较紧张。春节后一个月，现金回流银行体系，超额准备金又会上升。\n精要解释\n负债规模可视为为了获得资产(真实的资产+未来的资产)而印发的钞票数。分为两部分\n\n一部分是投放到实体部门（货币发行）和银行间市场（超额存款准备金）上的钱\n另一部分是曾经投放在市场上的钱，但目前暂时回笼了起来（主要是政府存款和法定存款准备金）\n\n超额存款准备金是可以支持银行货币创造的银行体系流动性，而法定存款准备金是被“冻结”的银行体系流动性，不能支持银行货币创造。央行资产负债表和基础货币中包含了上述两项的加总，简单用于分析货币政策取向的意义不大。\n与资产端的转换对齐\n基础货币（保留货币:Reserve Money） = 外汇 + 存款性公司债权（信用扩张） - 政府存款\n\n政府存款：当基层税务机关将税收上缴至人民银行或分支机构国库账户，企业在商业银行存款减少，计提的准备金相应减少，储备货币随之减少。相反，财政预算拨付或流向到商业银行账户时，储备货币增加。\n一般会呈现季初上缴（1，4，7，10月），季末投放的规律，随之影响储备货币。18年10月政府存款大增，可能是国地税合并的影响，不过又迅速拨付下去。\n\n近20年央行负债表关键数字\n货币发行，央行发了多少货币，自己是有数的，减去银行持有的通货，简单看就是M0的数字\n\n\n\n年.月\n央行国外资产 （万亿）\n中国外债（万亿美元）\n外储vs外债结余（万亿）\n存款性公司债权 （万亿）：承担信用扩张职能\n非存款金融企业债权（万亿）\n基础货币（万亿）\n货币发行（万亿） M0(非银行持有的通货) +银行持有的通货\n\n\n\n\n99.12\n1.45\n\n\n1.54 (当时国债0.16不高，应就是超发注入)\n0.38\n3.36\n1.5\n\n\n00.12\n1.56\n\n\n1.35\n0.86 （国企困难，债务转移）\n3.65\n1.59\n\n\n01.12\n1.99\n\n\n1.13\n0.85\n4\n1.69\n\n\n02.12\n2.32\n\n\n1.2\n0.74\n4.5\n1.86\n\n\n03.12\n3.1\n\n\n1.2\n0.74\n5.28\n2.1\n\n\n04.12\n4.7\n\n\n1.4\n0.9\n5.89\n2.3\n\n\n05.12\n6.33\n\n\n1.27\n1.32 （交行，建行上市）\n6.4\n2.6\n\n\n06.12\n8.58\n\n\n0.65\n2.2 （中行，工行上市）\n7.78\n2.9\n\n\n07.12\n12.48\n\n\n0.79\n1.3  (从8月开始大幅下降解困，之前变化不大，股民韭菜钱来解围了)\n10\n3.3\n\n\n08.12\n16.25\n\n\n0.84\n1.2\n12.9\n3.7\n\n\n09.12\n18.53\n\n\n0.72\n1.15\n14.4\n4.16\n\n\n10.12\n21.5\n\n\n0.95\n1.13 （农行上市）\n18.5\n4.86\n\n\n11.12\n23.79\n\n\n1.06\n1.02\n22.5\n5.6\n\n\n12.12\n24.1\n\n\n1.67\n1\n25.2 （12月前仍少于外汇）\n6.06\n\n\n13.12\n27.2\n\n\n1.3\n0.89\n27.1\n6.5\n\n\n14.12 （货币开始超发）\n27.86\n1.78【汇率6.12】\n16.97\n2.5  （自9月份就持续开飚到2.1）\n0.78\n29.41  （12月份前与外汇相差不大）\n6.7\n\n\n15.12\n25.38\n1.38【6.49】\n16.42\n2.66 （12月在外汇大幅下降下，政府存款突击拨付减少1.2进入银行，维持货币供给）\n0.67\n27.64  （与外汇剪刀差12月开始跳档，不回头地快速变大）\n6.99\n\n\n16.12\n22.98\n1.42【6.94】\n13.13\n8.5  （1月份就跳到5.2）\n0.63\n30.9 （突破30，按年看逐步继续上升）\n7.5\n\n\n17.12\n22.12\n1.76【6.53】\n10.63\n10.22\n0.59\n32.19  （前11个月未突破30.8，而后就在信用扩张的新台阶上跳舞了）\n7.7\n\n\n18.12\n21.76\n1.98【6.86】\n8.18\n11.15\n0.46\n33.1\n7.9\n\n\n19.12\n21.86\n2.07【6.98】\n7.41\n11.77\n0.46\n32.4\n8.29\n\n\n20.12\n21.8\n2.4【6.52】\n6.15\n13.34\n0.44\n33\n8.98\n\n\n21.12\n22.5\n2.75【6.35】\n5.04\n12.86\n0.41\n32.95 （与2017年变化不大）\n9.62\n\n\n22.1\n22.57\n\n\n13.47\n0.41\n33.12\n11.2\n\n\n22.6\n22.54\n2.64【6.7】\n4.85\n12.68\n0.17\n33.43\n10.12\n\n\n22.12\n22.69\n2.45【6.9】\n5.79\n14.31\n0.16\n36.1\n11\n\n\n23.5\n23.15\n\n\n13.17\n0.16\n34.42\n10.98\n\n\n23.6\n23.16\n2.43【7.25】\n5.54\n14.34\n0.16\n36.52\n11.03\n\n\n23.8\n23.16\n\n\n14.68(开始提前施展投放，化解自4月开始并7月重新掉头启动的信用紧缩)\n0.14\n35.36\n11.14\n\n\n23.11\n23.28\n\n\n16.99\n0.13\n36.32\n11.5\n\n\n24.3\n23.58\n\n\n16.35\n0.32\n37.09\n12.28\n\n\n24.5\n23.56\n\n\n15.64\n0.38\n35.76\n12.18\n\n\n24.10\n23.4\n\n\n16.56\n0.7\n36.18\n12.71\n\n\n24.12\n23.3\n\n\n15.64\n0.67\n36.8\n13.33\n\n\n25.1\n23.28\n\n\n18.46\n0.67\n38.87\n14.8\n\n\n25.4\n23.14\n\n\n17.39\n1.03\n37.38\n13.62\n\n\n\n\n外汇和外债的差（净结余）整体呈缩小的趋势\n\nxychart-beta\n    title \"中国央行基础货币（外汇+信用扩张-政府存款）\"\n    x-axis [99.12, 00.12, 01.12, 08.12, 14.12, 16.12, 19.12, 23.11, 24.3, 24.10, 25.4]\n    y-axis \"基础货币 (in 万亿￥)\" 3 --> 40\n    bar [3.36, 3.65, 4, 12.9, 29.41, 30.9, 32.4, 36.32,37.09,36.18,37.38]\n    line [3.36, 3.65, 4, 12.9, 29.41, 30.9, 32.4, 36.32,37.09,36.18,37.38]\nxychart-beta\n    title \"中国央行货币发行（M0+银行持有的通货）\"\n    x-axis [99.12, 00.12, 01.12, 08.12, 14.12, 16.12, 19.12, 23.11, 24.3, 24.10, 25.4]\n    y-axis \"货币发行 (in 万亿￥)\" 1 --> 15\n    bar [1.5, 1.59, 1.69, 3.7, 6.7, 7.5, 8.29,11.5,12.28, 12.71, 13.62]\n    line [1.5, 1.59, 1.69, 3.7, 6.7, 7.5, 8.29,11.5,12.28, 12.71, 13.62]\n如何理解14年节点\n为了做大蛋糕扩大产能及外部输入，07-17年的10年间，基础货币也膨胀了3.2倍，11年前主要受外汇影响，从14年的12月份就启动明显的信用扩张，从15年12月份进入新阶段，大幅加速扩张，17年相较于11年，膨胀了1.4倍（外汇还缩了，本来不该扩张的）。按基础货币的理论平均来看，11年后房子增值1.4倍，是等同于理论通货膨胀率的，可实际上不是这么回事。\n从基础货币的数量看，货币的投放4万亿并不是一年砸下去的，而是逐步释放，且当时有外汇基础，释放给市场并不算冒进，但积累的财富支持进一步发展出了结构性的问题\n央行自己公布的数字，在政府当局网站可查。海通图表基础货币的量，对应货币当局资产负债表中-负债-储备货币一栏。如2017年的报表数据\n\n很详细的一番讲解，来自于 华西证券的详解央行资产负债表\n\n央行的投放冲动\n和商业银行一样，央行投放基础货币需要强信用支撑，在最初很多央行用黄金做支撑，但事实证明无法满足经济体对货币的需求；逐步不少国家央行用国债作为发行货币的支撑，通过购买国债（一二级市场）增加货币供给，非常容易导致央行被财政的饥渴绑架（买国债也不能在一级市场买，得包装一下来二级市场买），导致通胀飞涨。中国90年代初，欧洲比如意大利都曾有惨痛教训。\n中国央行最终选择折中方案，用高等级商业银行的信用+国债或者政策性金融债质押来作为支撑发行货币。但随着时间推移，商业银行范围扩大，抵质押品范围也大幅扩张到各类金融债和企业债。\n金融工具集\n央行扩表主要是再贷款，逆回购，MLF，PSL，TMLF，SLO，TLF（后面3种中部分甚至历史以来只用过一次，普遍意义不强）；不扩表只改变基础货币结构，主要是降准，释放流动性，扩张商业银行的资产负债表。除了降准，都有一个明确的到期日，一旦到期，商业银行需归还从央行的借款，这个时候实际就是基础货币收缩。所以这些工具有很强的刚性，为了避免货币收缩，到期时央行都必须续作（回收都一直是狼来了假的）这在过去3年的MLF上充分体现。\n\n\n公开市场操作：正逆回购，现券买卖（主要是短期国债买卖，目前央行没有这样操作），SLO，央票，国库现金定存招标。\n\n\n再贷款：支农再贷款，支小再贷款，再贴现等，地方中支经常也把SLF纳入再贷款范畴，因为SLF和再贷款都是由地方中支行操作。\n\n\n从央行实际操作结果看，基本都是MLF和PSL占主流，几乎所有类型的创新流动性工具和传统的公开市场操作不同点在于“定向”特征明显，也就是说一般都是一对一定向流动性注入，公开市场操作是一个相对更加透明公开的操作模式。\n再举几个例子\n\n\nSLF（standing lending facility 常备借贷便利），创新流动性工具最早类别。最大特点是地方中心支行对地方中小金融机构提供短期流动性支持，不是央行总行直接操作。由金融机构主动发起申请，一对一交易，针对性强，隐蔽性也强，传统公开市场操作，是央行市场化手段向一级交易商注入流动性，属于宏观调节。SLF指定交易对象，属于微观干预。（全国性股份制银行及五大行需要向人民银行总行提交申请）\n\n\nSLO（short-term liquidity operations短期流动性调节工具）和普通公开市场操作无实质性差异，只是期限更短（1-7天），操作频次更高更灵活，操作对象是国有大行或股份制银行，属于一级交易商中更优质的金融机构。16年底后都没有进行任何操作，总计也只用过12次。\n\n\nMLF，中期借贷便利，理论上期限有3个月，6个月，一年，现实中运用最广泛的是1年，投放量的绝对主力，成为了降准的重要替代品，反复续作且不断扩大，外汇占款停止增长甚至下降后平衡央行资产负债表的重要工具。\n\n\n货币政策药瘾易上难下，在MLF身上也充分体现，第二次大幅度上升是16年为救助债市杠杆暴力去杠杆，2个月大幅注入1.3万亿增量MLF。即便央行3次降准都明确提及降准释放资金一部分用来置换到期MLF，但事实上MLF后续依然快速反弹。\n\n\nTMLF，强调一个定向修饰\n\n\nPSL（pledged supplementary lending抵押补充贷款），实际上是央行和政策性银行结合的 货币政策财政化的措施，解决国开行棚户区改造的资金难题，开发出来的工具。央行向国开行贷款，国开行向棚改主体贷款。棚改主体通过货币化安置向拆迁户发放补偿款，地方政府拆迁卖地支付款项，棚改主体偿还国开行贷款，国开行偿还央行贷款，资金闭环。名义上是央行借贷给政策性银行的抵押贷款，实际上是央行直接为商业银行提供基建，民生领域长期限，低成本资金支持，变成了基础货币的投放渠道。因为他的长期性回账周期慢，导致在几年时间内基础货币增加，最终债务能否缩表不得而知。传统意义上，央行不能直接购买国债，不能简单货币政策财政化，否则会为未来通胀埋下隐患，但是将财政部换成国开行，进出口银行，再冠名“棚改”，投放了3.3万亿基础货币。\n\n\nM1和M2\nM1和M2并不能归结于央行的供应，M1和M2中的非发行部分（M0)部分，是由于货币在市场中流通，在商业银行系统中反映的统计数字，是市场内生的“表现”货币，并不是央行供应的。\nM2的解读\n广义货币创造的直接主体是银行而非央行，现实中的广义货币M2由银行通过贷款等信用扩张创造而来，是由银行自主实现的，并不需要用到基础货币。中央银行通过调节基础货币为银行货币创造提供支持和约束。\n在金融周期流通过程中，商业银行的信用创造能力实际不受货币政策和货币供给制约，商业银行的最终负债规模取决于商业银行的净资产规模和风险经营能力。\n货币乘数是广义货币 M2 和基础货币之间的恒等式比例。广义货币 M2 的创造取决于银行行为，而银行贷款创造存款后所产生的缴纳法定准备金的需求，央行既可以通过缩表的降准对冲，也可以通过扩表的再贷款工具提供，这意味着货币乘数其实是一种事后的恒等式结果。\n M2 就像游戏币，在庄家柜子里毫无意义，被玩家兑换后才有价值。这句话用以解读中国的 M2 也够精辟。\n主要经济体货币层次定义\n\n美国的定期存款口径较小，大面值（10w美金以上）定期存款计入M3，中日的定期存款则包含所有面值。美国M2中的小面值定期存款，非机构持有的货币市场共同基金余额部分扣除了长期储蓄部分，即个人退休账户和基欧计划余额，中国的M2并未做相应扣除，口径略大于美国。不过中日欧没有将货币市场存款，非机构持有的货币市场基金余额，回购协议和隔夜欧洲美元等包含进M2。整体上，美国的M2统计更为精细，且统计口径相对较小。\n\n中日M2统计口径较为接近\n\nM2增加是什么原因\n有很多人说发钞票多了，这是不对的。主要是两个原因\n\n一个是和我们的金融体系有关系\n一个是高储蓄率\n\n我们国家是银行主导的，银行自然就创造信用，另一方面我们的储蓄太多了，我们的GDP只占全世界的15%，但是我们的储蓄达到全世界的40%。央行这几年基础货币的扩张就是外汇储备，我们所谓的发货币是有基础的发货币，不是凭空发货币的，不是印钞票，我们的央行印钞票的成分很少。\n我们怎么快速“富”起来的\n在过去的20年里，尤其是01-11这十年里，我们钱袋子的膨胀速度要远超美日。有人说因为改革开放，有人说因为WTO，其实还跟我们坚持强制结汇有很大关系，对冲增发。\n我们因为廉价的劳动力在过去成为了世界工厂，别人干不了的活我们来干，别人吃不了的苦我们来吃。每次发生危机，四面八方的都来咱们这里开厂子，把做出来的产品再卖到国际上，用赚回来的钱进一步扩大市场占有率，扩大投资，带动大量的外资流入。那边不停进，我们这边就不停的对冲增发，01年往后，新增货币$2 \\over 3$都是对冲增发出来的。\n当前周期危机的表象本质就是货卖不动了：\n\n钢产量过剩我们提了工业供给侧改革\n农产品和猪肉过剩，我们17年提出了农业供给侧改革\n工农都过剩，实体就不好干，钱没地方去。势必催生第三大过剩，金融过剩，所以我们在19年又提出金融供给侧改革。\n\n现在解决过剩的方式就是倒推，给钱找个去处。一带一路，乡村振兴，来了。再把库房里吃灰的钢拉出来周围邻居搞一搞援建，刷波好感，给张家送温暖，给李家盖高楼。别生气，钱还只能这么“造”，在国内冲撞到民生领域，老百姓连小米都要吃不起。\n美联储\n美联储是全世界最大的印钞机，是无中生有的印钞票，在其帝国下半场的趋势下，美国财政纪律极其差（不断的债务扩张），自己印的最多，带动大家印钱跟进，制造舆论别人印，虚伪不厚道。【文化打手也是真的多】\n\n北美崔哥在他的微信圈里发一个文，说他有一次被邀请到军校参加毕业典礼，典礼有一个退役的四星上将做演讲，这位上将拿出一张100美元的大钞，说只用十美分就能印出这张纸，但为什么全世界的人要用好几百元的货物才能来换回这一张价值十美分、擦屁股还嫌不够大的纸？别的国家为什么要咬牙接受这种不公平呢，他说，就是因为台下在坐的你们（军校学生，也就是军队）。\n\n这就是真正的美国精英的想法，因为他们有军事实力，所以可以印钞票。美国财政部一边发大量的债，那边美联储就印钞票，就是发一大堆电子符号把债务买来，然后中国人傻乎乎的拿我们的血汗做出来的杯子、椅子出口到美国，换那些美元票子。\n人民银行\n中国央行放贷是要有真正的实物做抵押。所以批评说中国央行大印钞票的说法是错误的。另一方面，我们的央行根本没有开足马力发钞票，因为我们的准备金率很高。\n货币发行量最大的参数是什么？\n\n\n基础货币有多少\n\n\n准备金率\n\n\n准备金率越高你发的越少，我们的准备金率最高达到22%，银行收来100块钱的存款，有22块钱不能拿去贷款，现在降下来了，但还有17%。\nM2/GDP比率解读\n经分析，即使美国将大额定期存款等纳入M2，中国的M2/GDP仍远大于美国，以2014年数据为例，美国119%，同期中国193%。\n从国际经验来看，储蓄规模较高的国家，M2/GDP比率较高。\n\n中国国内储蓄占GDP的比重，1970年为28.93%，14年升到48.57%，09年一度是51.92%\n我国社会保障制度由“国家-单位保障制”向“国家-社会保障制”转变，教育和医疗改革都增加了居民收入和消费的不确定性，出于预防性动机，居民不得不维持较高的储蓄水平。大量储蓄放在银行，经由银行的中介作用满足我国经济的投资需求，并加速了货币扩张。\n\n\n高M2彰显中国金融效率较低\n美国金融创新工具（资产证券化）可使居民将属于M2的资产转换为收益更高的债券（M3），共同基金和长期基金，从而降低M2余额，一定程度上“替代”了银行货币创造作用。部分锁定成M3，货币能量更低，完成了流通对GDP的贡献，拿不出来而已，只要一直就业稳定/社会保障稳定，脑子不多想日子也能过，靠机构投资者收剪全世界羊毛供给这群无脑工作者(核心是你不取出来，我就尽量可以保持纸币不多发尽量稳定，只要美元全球环流正常就好，反正我是世界货币，谁也不想看见我印钱)。\n中国民营企业难以获得银行信贷，过剩资金缺乏投资渠道，存款水平较高。企业定期存款与M2之比从21世纪初的10%，扩张到14年的21.5%（在08年后显著提高）。\n中国储蓄率变化\n随着国民收入分配逐渐向居民部门倾斜（老板的收益在那里，企业间竞争+劳动力供给下降，迫使企业让渡劳动/劳务分配，也就是逐步向居民部门倾斜），居民高储蓄导致大量资金集中于金融体系，\n\n除了07年大量人炒股，存款占比暴跌，其余都是存款占大头\n\n\n08年之后，储蓄率走到历史峰值52.2%【资金运用结构，看图进入到保险的资金越来越多】后掉头下降，对资本深化形成较大影响。储蓄率下降，主要受经济增长率下降，消费增速保持不变影响。2017年住户，政府，企业三部门的储蓄率分别占22%，3.4%，21.2%，比08年分别下降1.2，2.5，1.5个百分点。政府支出刚性且减税让利，下降正常。企业储蓄率下降主要与企业增加值增速下降，劳动者报酬刚性上涨有关。\n储蓄跨部门流动（从居民到企业和政府）需求增加必推升金融业在国民经济中的比重，中国金融业增加值占GDP比重在17年已超过英美等主要经济体金融业比重。金融业扩张势必挤占更多社会资源，也算是一个突出问题。\n储蓄多了，推进住户部门财富和储蓄合理分布，避免储蓄淤积，也是上方头疼的问题，要让你们的钱拿出来，最好是直接融资，减少金融业扩张挤占社会资源。住户部门可支配收入占比上升是合意的，但问题在于住户部门内部收入和财富增长更多集中在高收入群体，财富差距持续扩大。\n共同富裕，平衡住户储蓄结构\n\n一方面积极推进资产税改革出台，进行调节\n另一方面扩大优质基础教育普惠供给，使中低收入群体人力资本获得更快增长。\n\n贫富的分布：6‱\n\n万分之六\n\n何被称为有钱人，在金融机构的眼中，你得有私人银行的账户。私行的条件就是你的优质现金流达到一个水平，以招行为例大概就是1000w左右。\n据各大行2020年报数据显示，大概有90w人达到这个标准，每10000人中有6个人才称得上是富人。不要以为这个资金池子小，富人们手握的财富超过穷人想象。招行8w多私行客户，账户平均资产是2700w+，简单乘一下就是22万亿，他们的财富占到了金融财富的30%，07年的时候这个数字还不到10%，也就是万分之六的人坐拥1/3的金融财富。\n如果再把中产（招行为样本把金葵花当门槛）算进去，就是不到2%的人，占有80%的资产，这告诉了我们劳动力的增长速度是跑不过资本的增长速度的，凭打工逆袭成富人结论大概率是残酷的。\n\n占比1.84%的金葵花及以上客户占了81.2%的财富，2020年还继续提升，中产和中产的资源均在增加。\n私人银行客户视作富人，富人占比0.06%，掌握31.03%财富，户均资产2775w。\n中产占比1.9%，掌握51.12%的财富，户均152w。\n普通人占比98%，掌握17.85%的财富，户均资产1w。贫富差距无法看扁。\n\n企业部门储蓄承压\n企业部门收入增长放缓导致企业储蓄不足，只能更多依靠举债维持资本开支，债务风险加大。低迷的收入增长导致企业资本开支更多用于购买存量资产，宏观上降低了储蓄运用效率，减税降费政策空间不断收缩，更多还是要靠改善产业组织格局和供求关系等供给侧改革。\n工业化进入中后期后，生产力大发展与总需求不足的矛盾会越来越突出，要解决需求不足问题.\n\n\n对外要努力扩大出口\n\n\n对内逐步扩大公共支出\n\n\nM2和社融\n社会融资总量，是全国整个实体经济（包括企业，居民部门，不含金融、政府部门）获得的融资总量。\n现代货币制度下，货币主要来自于银行的信用派生。如银行给老王发放了一笔100元贷款，老王拿到这100元，存进银行中，整个社会就多出来了100元的存款（货币）。这个例子中，发生了100元的社融，同时新增了100元货币（M2），社融和M2变化一致，为硬币的两面。\n现实中，社融内容很多，M2来源也多，两者不完全一致。\n\n\nM2不变，社融变动\n\n\n直接融资是存量M2的转移，例如老王买了A公司的债券或股票，小李把自己的存款（M2）有偿转给B公司使用，M2却并不增加。\n\n\n个人购买资管产品也是直接融资，个人支持的M2，变成了资管产品的M2，M2总量不变。资管产品再把M2投给借钱的企业，M2总量仍然不变（但增加了社融）\n\n\n有些社融，根本就没有发生现金流动，如银行开未贴现银行承兑汇票，这只是开出了一张票据，跟M2完全无关。\n\n\n\n\n来源渠道的不同\n\n除了信用派生（银行给实体放贷，购买企业债券，投放给非银等）外，M2还来自外汇占款，财政支出等渠道，这些渠道跟社融无关\n\n\n\n间接融资时间差\n\n如银行给非银放款会派生M2，非银再给实体放款则计入社融。非银通道的加入，把银行间接融资行为划分为了两个步骤，前一个派生M2，后一个计入社融。两个步骤可能会有时间差，但如果资金很快100%投出去，那么此不分M2和社融仍是统一的。但现实中不可能这么理想，二者数据错位是常态\n极端情况是资金空转，银行把钱投给资管（派生M2），资管产品则不再投给实体，而是资管产品间作击鼓传花的游戏，这样M2已派生出来，而社融则没有了。\n\n\n\n总结下二者关系\n\n分部门债务数据\n宏观杠杆率是指非金融企业部门（也就是企业部门），政府部门，住户部门的债务余额与年度国内生产总值之比。08年金融危机后，我国宏观杠杆率呈上升态势，20年受新冠肺炎冲击影响，更为明显。20年末我国宏观杠杆率为279.4%（美国为296.1%，日本为418.9%），比19年高23.5%（美日增高比较大，分别为42.8%和40.6%，但看波动量不如看绝对值，莫要玩汇报口径游戏）。分部门看：\n\n企业部门为161.2%，比上年末高9.1%；\n住户部门为72.5%，比上年末高7.4%；\n政府部门为45.7%，比上年末高7.1%。\n\n\n如上数字来自于人行的 2021中国金融稳定报告\n企业部门杠杆率是我国宏观杠杆率最主要组成部门，占比基本在60%左右，在主要经济体中位居前列。从某种侧面也反映中国还是有造富机会较多，否则企业就不敢举债了。从17-19年，企业部门杠杆率连续三年下降，合计共降7.6个百分点，有序释放潜在风险，为企业部门新增债务留下了一定空间。\n20年政府赤字3.76万亿，发行抗疫特别国债1万亿，地方政府专项债券3.75万亿，合计比19年多3.6万亿，稳经济稳就业。\n\n20年末央行公布的数字，住户部门债务余额73.6万亿（还有民间借贷？）-- 同比增长14.6%\n\n\n归属于金融机构个人贷款余额63.2万亿，同比增长14.2%\n\n49.57万亿(占78.4%)为消费贷款（住房贷款余额34.44，占总个人贷款63.2中一半稍多【54.5%】）\n13.62万亿为经营性贷款，占21.6%\n\n\n以平安银行零售金融 24年的个人贷款余额看，住房贷款 16.8%，信用卡 25.9%，消费贷 26.8%，经营贷 30.5%。虽然过了几年，小行的数据可能也不够典型，看有一种感觉是不是不少住房贷款搬家到了经营贷，让上层和金融机构嗅到了风险，不得不在 24 年让利降了 2 波存量房贷利率。\n\n\n\n以央行的债务口径来算，除以当年GDP101.6万亿，占比72.5%（社科院公告的只取了贷款余额，可视为62.2%）\n\n\n\n人民银行的数据更为准确，将未在金融机构的住户贷款中反映的居民债务也统计进来\n08年时住户部门债务18.2%，历年来一直在稳步上涨。\n\n资本市场的供给问题\n资本市场是解决金融为实体经济服务的撒手锏。2018年，全社会新增融资20万亿中，83%是间接金融，即商业银行贷款和信托等机构提供的资金，17%是直接融资，直接融资中又有一部分是企业债券等，约占10%，也就是说，93%是债务债权，7%是资本股权。这个比例显然是失衡的。反观美丽国，18年70%是股权融资，而银行债务融资和债券融资占比仅为30%。\n美国企业的负债率加总数据是GDP的60%多，而我国是160%，这就是我们资本市场供给明显不足造成的。\n这种融资结构的不合理，直接融资占比低，导致中国整体杠杆率水平很高。\n何为杠杆金融风险\n经济快速发展的同时也蕴含着系统性金融风险的积累，可以说是微观主体出于对盈利预期的乐观估计，积极扩大投资头寸引发风险敞口扩大和杠杆率攀升，也可以按达利奥的说法是长期债务持续扩张超速生产率过多，必然反制消费，引发调整。也可以说是市场经济的必然，有逃不过去的过剩问题。\n杠杆率的快速攀升是系统性金融风险加剧的重要标志，当单个部门的金融风险积聚到一定程度后，金融风险会跨部门溢出和传染，并形成系统性金融风险。一旦临界值到达或突破，经济，社会中就会爆发某些冲突事件\n居民杠杆率分析\n居民杠杆率在全球大体呈现发达国家较高，不发达国家较低的规律。发达国家金融供给充分及社会保障完善。20年9月，所有国家居民杠杆率67.4%，发达经济体平均值78%，新兴经济体50.6%，中国以62%计的话，低于发达经济体和平均值。但按央行的72%的口径，就高过世界平均值，仍低于发达经济体。\n以09年居民杠杆率和15年末比，居民杠杆率上升最多的是中国，说明中国居民突击了一轮加杠杆。世界前六的经济体，08年金融危机以来，都大体呈去杠杆的趋势，只有中国明显一直处在加杠杆的阶段。\n\n我国到现在还没经历过房价和居民杠杆率的大幅下降，也就是房地产泡沫破裂和金融危机。居民杠杆率高到何种程度会发生金融危机或房地产泡沫破裂，没有一个绝对的临界值，瑞士，挪威，丹麦居民杠杆率都超过110%，也没看到发生危机的迹象，日本房价崩盘时，居民杠杆率不到70%。\n常规来说这种寅吃卯粮的情况毕竟不能长期持续，如果原来储蓄多的情况下，长期债务周期带来的调整应还不会来，杠杆高过GDP，说明当前国家经济发展不良，在吃老本（余粮），但挪威这些北欧国家特别，人特别少，资源特多。例如500w人口，国家卖石油，简单的印钞机模式，哐哐来钱，虽然居民杠杆高，但国家杠杆不高，挪威的主权基金也确实在国际上持有大量资产，收益颇丰。从历史上爆发危机的国家来看，挪威吃其它地方的本钱还没有触碰到债务阵痛，侧面也说明其贫富差距不明显，保障好/尚有积蓄。\n\n欧洲的负利率政策，存银行还要给银行钱，也促成居民借贷消费。在制表和简单统计的出发点，一般来说债务是债务，资产是资产，不冲抵来输出，因为资产是虚的（算不算账面的浮盈呢），债务是实的。有债务也不代表其没储蓄。\n\n常规来说，一个平民积蓄不高（贫富差距明显）的国家居民杠杆率高企时，就会触发完蛋模式次贷爆发了，有钱人肯定没事。\n\n结语\n\n中国超发的是债务，不是货币\n\n我看了那么几天的资料，杠杆率远远比M2重要。因为M2是一个存量概念（历史滚动结果–有些人存着一直没取，里面还存在一部分钱坏账冻结了，因为商业银行的信用放大再创造，它仅是对应于一个财富计算方式，仅此而已。就像房价涨，涨了你原来是100平你还是100平，不能变现根本没任何作用），GDP是一个年度数字，直接来比并没有什么精确的意义。△M2/GDP还更有意义些。中国尤其高，说明放贷的金融行业作为通道在经济中角色偏重，分享利润，其实并不会是一个健康的发展模式。\n\n如果不产生坏账，M2再高都没有问题。但难就难在，M2越高，累积的坏账总额就越高，变成冻结的资产，有一种有害的经营。\n不良贷款（坏账）的产生意味着这一部分货币已在金融体系内沉淀（计提, 不知道是不是存入保证金–可放贷额度下降），不再发挥作用，因而降低了货币流通速度。经济运行支撑，银行肯定会叫自己没钱可用，倒逼央行扩张信用，经济运行需要投放更多货币，M2/GDP 比率随之提高。\n\n\n日本人也不是一个消费驱动, 同样没什么直接金融投资偏好的国家，所以累积下来比我们的M2/GDP高。但是我们△M2/GDP又高过日本。\n常规来说，负债率过高，寅吃卯粮在债务周期的影响下，对金融的潜在破坏性最大。也是这几年去杠杆之路的缘由。解读M2真不如去看央行的基础货币的量，这个才代表了整体的货币供应，才是整个社会的财富量体现。\n温和降杠杆\n比例于GDP，中国居民部门的负债已经较高，类比于同样贫富分化较大的国家，已接近于历史上出现金融危机的区域。所以国家在实操温和去杠杆。\n中国的人均GDP已突破1w美金，但到了居民部门，人均收入就只有4000美金，合每个月2000多人民币，借债发展之路如履薄冰。\n货币政策的松紧\n货币政策的松紧，关键看作为货币政策中介标的–货币供应量和社会融资规模。只要保持了货币信贷合理增长（这合理应该是与结果数字–GDP的比值），就说明银行货币创造的市场化功能正常发挥，中央银行提供的基础货币是适度的。\n上峰看不到个体，只能看到一堆堆数字，按照一堆堆数字做应对决策，作为个体，努力自我拼搏吧。\n来自24年的变动\n央妈下场买国债\n这是4月底的热门话题。\n货币发行开始和外汇脱钩了，也意味着新蛋糕周期模式开始了。这是货币发行方式的悄然变化（如果只是调节货币流通的松紧，大可继续用原来的MLF，SLF等），影响的是所有人口袋的转变。\n哪怕央妈嘴上说不是QE，无外乎是此地无银三百两而已。小日本之前搞QE嘴上也是说的一套一套的，渐进还是走向QE。\n\n从逻辑上推论，央行在二级市场买国债更类似日本央行的做法，YCC，即收益率曲线控制。日本的YCC方案，是控制政府的融资成本，日本的做法就是我国照抄的模板。\n\n仅从理论上，央行在二级市场买国债，只发生所有权的转移，不会产生货币增发，可以定义为央行的金融工具(一种解读目的是控债不是增发)，现实情况是，日本的YCC方案，本质就是QE，中国是否按此不断降低利率，是大家尤其是投资者值得擦亮眼睛关注的问题。届时央行的”资产“部分增加”对政府债权”，“负债”部分增加“货币发行”或“金融性公司存款”\n正所谓信用货币年代，九曲十八弯MMT是归宿。\n正向的视角：阶段轮动\n每一轮做蛋糕周期离蛋糕近的人，更易成为先富起来的一部分人。\n\n2008年以前，做蛋糕方式，出口赚汇，有多少美元结余，发行多少人民币，谁做出口谁赚钱。\n09年尤其是13年后，外汇无法赚得更多，限制了货币投放，就开始增加MLF，SLF等工具投放货币。最经典的是棚改PSL，用基建投放货币，谁做基建谁赚钱。\n现在将国债买卖纳入政策工具箱，无论是QE还是YCC，或者是债务置换也好，本质都起到了向市场投放货币的作用，同时也在为第三次做蛋糕打基础。点解？\n\n并不是所有国家央行都可以下场买卖国债，此举会导致汇率崩盘\n发达经济体都是在内部接近饱和后，制造业完成升级，有了向外扩张的需要，原有货币发行锚定方式已不适应当下的情况，才会改用国债作为货币发行方式\n对应的就是资本出海时代\n\n\n\n市场经济下，当国内劳动力成本不再有优势，制造业就会迁往人力成本低的地方，资本就会对外投资\n如不改变货币发行方式，就会导致国内市场中流通的货币趋于减少引发流动性紧张的风险。\n资本出去是为了利益最大化，对应的就是攫取海外发展红利，包括人口红利，资源红利\n全球化以来，我们的人口红利让欧美依赖上了高福利。\n是什么蛋糕\n资本出海时代带来两点变化\n\n国内低端制造业被淘汰，迁往发展中国家，高端制造业产品出口，吃到产业链红利，中国人和中国产品将被当地人吹捧，就像当年我们认为欧美人牛一样\n国内福利体系上升，以买国债发行货币的发行货币的方式，政府会把钱花出去，提升社会福利的同时，培育消费市场和服务业\n\n未来蛋糕在\n\n拿钱投海外吃中华主导的全球发展红利\n国内吃政府订单\n福利上升后培育的消费市场发展红利\n资本市场红利，货币循环的中华版中圆，中股，中债\n\n货币发行方式的改变都是发展阶段的变化，从打工者升级到包工头，再到企业老板的变化，打工阶级要会存钱，老板阶段要会花钱。\n参考\n1.cn.investing.com  USD/CNY历史数据 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"女性婚恋相亲窘境","url":"/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html","content":"\n“割韭菜”的相亲平台\n现实世界满足不了的幻想，相亲平台来满足你。现实中找不到理想的另一半，相亲平台都有。实际上稍微有点吸引力的人，身边的追求者都应付不过来，哪有时间精力来相亲平台登记呢？\n相亲的本质（看看这对 很难不相互嫌弃 的矛盾体）：\n\n一帮最不会给女人提供情绪价值的男人遇见的了一帮最需要情绪价值的女人\n再真实一点：一帮最不会追女人的男人遇到了一帮最难追的女人\n再再真实一点：一帮要求很高的男人遇到了一帮要求也很高的女人，他们能不互相嫌弃吗？\n\n在婚恋市场上，一旦你进入了相亲这个环节，虽然表面看上去你有很多的选择权，但实际意味着，你其实没有选择权了。不绕口来讲，女生相信花钱能帮忙找个优质男的；男生去相亲时想找个直接能结婚的，能减少追女孩子的成本的。双方为了自己的利益本无错，只是问题是断舍离意识可能准备不足。实际上市面上的优质资产它是不流通的，要通过花钱打广告的这种旺铺转让，它本质自然不是旺铺，并没有所谓的圈子小。\n\n可能有人会杠，相亲平台有高学历女士，男士也有年薪百万千万的。你要知道，一个人优点越大，而它依然找不到对象，要么就是有不小的缺陷，要么就是极度挑剔。另一面很漂亮或很帅的你更是要谨慎看待，摆正自己的需求，降低在相亲市场寻求爱情的期待，思维转角才识爱。\n男女方的相亲认知偏差\n男人想的是我越相亲我越不想付出，但是女人的想法恰恰相反，我越相亲我越要找一个能对我付出的，否则我等了35年白等了。反正沉默成本这么高，大不了再等三年呗，但是再三年，她的要求就更高了。\n但男人想的是，又过了三年，价格该打折了。所以这些男人和女人之间的需求，完全是错配的，且女性更难一些。\n女性的特质囧境分析\n\n男性剩下来可以简单等同为是因为经济条件，极少量是身高或抠门。女性剩下来多半跟挑剔有关。\n\n单身时一直难遇真爱的关键因素有这么两个：\n不知道对方什么需求\n比如很多女生以为男人喜欢的特点是女生读世界名著，钢琴，瑜伽，对小动物有爱心，环保做义工，有份好工作，吃有机食品不吃烤串，其实这些男人都不在乎。男生在乎的无非是温柔体贴加好看。\n如果把相亲的人比做滞销产品，还没找到另一半真正的原因，是你自认为的优点，根本不符合客户的需求。如果一个产品卖不出去，滞销了怎么办？这个时候，你不应该埋头生产更多不符合市场需求的产品，各种客户不需要的功能都加上去，越卖越贵。比如弹个钢琴，做个瑜伽，读书旅游，然后强行推销。而是应该立即停产，要么降价大促销，要么调整配方再出售。相亲也是一样的道理。\n\n高估自己\n其次，人都会高估自己。比如女生会高估自己的容貌，直男行规是平方/10。比如有位女性宣称自己有8分，直男心算6.4分，女生宣称自己6分中等美，实际上是3.6分。1957年美国一个实验也能证实，你觉得你的智商是否超过了社会平均？91%的美国人选择了是，反映到相亲市场也是一样的，90%的人认为自己在平均线以上，所以要求对方也要在平均线以上。\n慕强无法向下兼容\n\n大龄优质单身男 青年这个词基本不存在，但最后一个字换了，就有一大堆。\n\n大龄优质单身女青年难找到好对象，原因无外乎择偶更慕强。男性圈层中意的是贤惠更胜聪慧，优秀还听话，这点就很不符合现实。所以男性实际择偶要求降了一点，或者说更聪明一些，他们不要优秀的，只要听话的。\n优秀王老五的择偶条件绝大多数都是美貌与温柔并存，缺一不可，学历工作好当然是加分项。\n漂亮有能力她一定有个性有思想，这就是矛盾点，优秀男性择偶条件其实并不高，但偏偏筛掉了一大把优秀女性，从而导致优秀女性择偶呈现一种高不成低不就的状态。（2022年，100位女生本科录取，对应只有58名男生，比例都快干到2:1了，大学正在被女生全面攻占，这还是汇总平均值，有些省更夸张）\n**找漂亮弟弟？**同龄夫妻都容易被认成姐弟恋，更别说年龄差得有点的。一直捯饬自己也很心累的，老是气场问题，绝不仅仅是皮肤状态的问题。况且弟弟图你什么你也不是不知道，能走到最后概率也不大。\n城市相亲角\n城市二代大量进入相亲市场，在一线城市这是一群相对较难结婚的一群人。北京土著和上海土著曾经演绎过这条路。相亲文案里：独生女，深/京/沪二代。这种就基本表示富养长大，不差钱无危机感，挑男人就挑性格挑长相，可这这是男性最稀缺的资源，又帅有会哄我的，事业也不要太差，再对标自己家里得有套房，那灾难就发生了，北上的土著不少就这么剩下的。\n基本都是家长帮张罗，呈现一种皇帝不急太监急的情景。80,90 是主力，00 也出现了， 80 这一代的相亲角资源容易出现两极分化，要么只要求男性有担当，能供养，捉急要上岸；要么标准奇高不能降，毕竟都坚守这么多年了不是。\n糙话说找对象统共就分三类\n\n聪慧但事儿逼的\n愚蠢但忠诚的\n愚蠢但事儿逼的（社会新闻离婚案例里多见）\n\n人无完人，但缺点可以并存。高富帅有没有，比比皆是，但脾气呀你一定接受不了。优秀的好人不可能没有脾气，抑或白马王子就不会出现在你普通人身边，找对象还是要基于你的脾气和性格来做搭配决定，才能顺顺利利过下去，婚姻里一定不会出现的就是鱼与熊掌兼得，偶像剧里一样的棋逢对手，双强现实里一定不得劲，要么形散要么神散。不要总是看别人多好多好，他家锅底的灰是你想不到的 50 度灰，他家老爷们浪漫是你想不到的浪。男人就像食堂里的饭菜，虽然难吃，但去晚了就没了。\nquadrantChart\n    title 婚配的安娜卡列尼娜原理：不幸的多样化\n    x-axis \"刺头\" --> \"温柔\"\n    y-axis \"能力弱\" --> \"能力强\"\n    quadrant-1 \"A-强大又温柔\"\n    quadrant-2 \"C-强大的刺头\"\n    quadrant-3 \"D-又弱又刺头\"\n    quadrant-4 \"B-不添堵\"\n    \"解决问题同时还温柔\" : [0.75, 0.75]\n    \"能力不强但温柔\": [0.75, 0.25]\n    \"一边解决问题一边骂人\": [0.25, 0.75]\n    \"解决不了问题，同时还骂人\": [0.25, 0.25]\n\n能力强=能自己解决问题\n温柔=解决不了问题，能不能安抚别人\n\nC 找 B 是常见的。A 型不管到多大年龄，在婚姻市场都留得很少，男女都一样，结婚就看这个目标型。碰到想不开的 A，这时候你不能要求 A 长得高又帅，不能要求 A 父母怎么样。\nD型： 解决不了问题，同时还「骂人」。如果你自己是 D，那就变强大，因为（性格）刺头是改变不了的。D 如果长得好看一些，是能找到想不开的 A 的。\n结语\n人生每一步都有其必然意义，如果不结婚人生就能一帆风顺的话，那婚姻这个制度压根不会被发明出来。换种视角来看，是以孤单的苦来替代磨合的痛。当然如果你特别享受孤单，群体生活会让你感到病态的不适，没有一丝的羡慕，那也就没有苦一说，独处即美好（允许独美，尊重独美）。\n如失业久了容易丧失工作能力，单身久了也是类似的道理。爱一个人或与人融通相处，也是一种能力。所以了解对方的需求，合理评估自己，把爱他人的能力培育起来，比设计择偶条件有用。做好这些，相信真爱就在拐角处。\n婚姻曾是农业社会的生存&quot;刚需&quot;，但走到当今社会，如今更是两个独立灵魂的共谋，两个人敢不敢一起走新路，决定这场关系，可能给两个人插上翅膀，但也可能陷入一个『牢笼』，毕竟选择一个人，选择一段感情，其实就是选择了一种生活。当下，人们普遍处于纠结之中，很多人觉得自己很浪漫，但实际上真正做选择的时候，又很现实。而真正的勇士可以现实主义和浪漫主义并存，就像认清生活真相后仍然热爱生活。选择单身的人，以咖啡馆、剧场、书籍为伴，在孤独中与万千世界对话，也可能是『对生命可能性的诚实』，这个时代珍贵的就是每个人都拥有了书写剧本的权利。\n我们正身处一个新的大航海时代，今天的大航海是每个人向内探索的文化远征，是在快速前行的世界中，对自己精神锚点的探索。过去的社会像一艘巨轮，只要按部就班，就能抵达终点，如今，更多人像千万艘独木舟，在汪洋中各自寻路。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["社交"]},{"title":"好好说话","url":"/%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%BD%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D.html","content":"\n很多人觉得登台之后自然就开始演讲了，非也，第一件事是停住，得让大家看到你全身。大家在演讲时都会做手势，右力手就站左边，反之站右边，这样就有一个很大的打手势空间。\n能控场的人要具备三个条件：第一要有自信，没自信也不能从众多人中脱颖而出，第二要有逻辑，组织起来才有底，第三点要会控制节奏。但谈话还是要有质量，还要善于总结。\n尴尬与紧张\n难的不是尴尬本身，而是我们对尴尬放大后的担心和焦虑\n人如果紧张，说明还有精力，还有使不完的劲，你瞅瞅那些病入膏肓的人，哪个还能紧张得起来？如果你感到紧张就攥紧拳头咬紧牙关绷紧关节，自己跟自己较劲，把你全身的劲都用尽，气都不要喘，连续做个两三回，你就能便松弛了，因为你没劲了，也就紧张不起来了。\n\n不好听的话\n安慰：禁忌是把对方当弱者\n\n\n不要抢话\n\n\n不要分享自己的经历\n\n\n不要建议，不要给意见\n\n\n经常性的去肯定对方的情绪跟感受\n\n\n认可对方的能力和对现状的处理情况\n\n\n行动上去关心\n\n\n危机对话\n\n\n确定已发生的事实\n\n\n支持对方的感受\n\n\n表达承担责任的态度\n\n\n告诉对方你现在能做什么，给对方一个强有力的承诺\n\n\n批评指责\n禁忌\n\n\n不要把对方的行为恒常化\n\n\n不要揣度别人的意图：你就是故意的\n\n\n攻击对方人品或人格：根本就不懂浪漫，无趣，没用\n\n\n合适的策略\n\n\n先把情绪卸下来，体察自己的需求，然后跟对方去对话\n\n描述自己的感受，说出你的期待\n\n\n\n指出替换做法的影响\n\n\n拒绝\n\n\n承认对方的处境\n\n\n告诉不能帮忙的具体原因：甚至可以跟对方说我再考虑一下，没有关系的话我再考虑下，都比你稀里糊涂的答应别人强\n\n\n告知勉强帮忙的后果，为对方去着想：答应但做不到，后果还是对方受损\n\n\n告诉对方可以提供帮助的情况，或者推荐别的方案给他：晚两天再来借，或者找谁谁谁\n\n\n自我推销\n公正世界假设\n\n付出就有收获，做得好别人就能看到\n\n既然是假设，你懂得。除非你是一个特别牛的人，有专人围着你给你报道\n自我推销是成功者必备的能力\n错误的自我推销\n\n\n自揭其短。不敢说自己好，这是错误的，没必要一上来给别人介绍自己的缺点，缺点暴露时不逃避否认就是了\n\n\n流水账：按年份介绍自己\n\n\n充满形容词：空、泛。别人不会因为你口说自己是一个积极的人就相信你，甚至会通过你的外表去判断都不会相信你的话\n\n\n提要求：请大家多多帮忙、鼓掌、鼓励\n\n\n把名字拆开：并不是什么重要的信息，你原本可以用此时间说一些让别人对你印象更深刻的事情\n\n\n讲好自己的故事，打造自我品牌\n\n生活中都一直在做交易和销售\n\n你跟别人不一样，你很厉害，你值得信任\n\n用谦虚来自我标榜的人不会这么做或者说也做不到，这恰恰是效率的命门所在\n\n\n\n不要只讲一个大家好，我是xxx，然后就开讲产品或内容。要介绍自己的成功事迹（做到过什么），第一步骤把成绩拿出来\n\n退而求其次，介绍自己品质好，如乐于助人资助了很多学生\n\n\n\n告诉别人你怎么做到的：用具体的案例和细节，告诉别人你凭什么很厉害\n\n\n要点：简洁，用最简单直接的方式力证自己的闪光点\n\n\n一个人说他多好，尽管我们有点反感，但下意识还是会相信。正是自我推销的重要性\n\n\n减轻听众恶感的办法\n\n\n找到跟听众的相关性，对他们有什么用\n\n\n讲点非功利的品质：如参加公益活动\n\n\n讲更宏大的愿景信念和使命，自我推销成救世主\n\n\n原则\n\n\n真实才有底气\n\n\n不要前后矛盾和左右摇摆\n\n\n与听众相关\n\n\n找不到特别的成绩，就讲自己的品质曾经克服过什么困难，期望听众得到你品质不错，善于动脑很有毅力等等\n\n\n年终总结\n还是之前讲过的，千万不要有公正世界假设，你做的事情，领导真的没有你自己认为的那么了解，即便了解，你也要说出来\n\n峰终定律，论功行赏，最好拿出一周的时间准备自己的年终总结演讲\n\n在公司/部门的核心目标下自己的任务和核心绩效\n\n\n每个公司都有它的目标和需要的关键结果\n\n\n所以你上来不要说自己多辛苦，干了这那。而是从公司核心目标触发，从公司对你岗位关键结果的要求出发\n\n\n做了什么和做到什么的时候，一定要跟公司目标相关，这样会让老板觉得你是一个头脑清楚有大局观的人，先从公司的核心目标开始说\n\n\n报告绩效完成情况\n\n\n结构清晰：时间/内容分类\n\n\n成绩具体。作为大船的一个部件，你今年到底是什么状况，做到了哪一步？你对航行的距离做出的贡献是什么？\n\n\n遇到的问题和解决的方案\n\n\n不要让老板觉得你轻飘飘就做到了\n\n\n也不能回避问题，只说成绩。体现成长性和诚恳性\n\n\n\n\n额外付出：不属于你的岗位职责，但对公司的核心目标有好处。必须在你报告核心绩效后，否则显得不务正业（我的大船前行，而你还在东南西北乱晃）。\n\n\n感谢和分享经验（如果同事也能听到你的报告的话，就不要忘记团队协作别人的帮助，也能团结同事），经验能复制，对整个公司也有好处\n\n\n反思和展望：继续的决心和信心，及一个具体的计划\n\n\n如何口语化理解上面的内容\n\n领导让你做的，你都做了，故对你放心。\n你做的特别好超出他的预期，故对你有信心。\n你还做了他没有要求的，对公司有好处的，会觉得你特别有事业心，是一个值得培养的人。\n\n这就是年终总结要的效果。\n注意原则\n\n\n时间要短：领导其实没那么耐心，他们讨厌听人讲话。故不要罗里吧嗦，讲核心\n\n\n不要抱怨\n\n公司有这样那样的问题\n对一个东西最好的批评，是做出新东西来替代它\n\n\n\n不要过分炫耀自己的成绩\n\n\n不要说没有经过验证的话，需要具体证据或数字去支持\n\n\n可以去强调努力，但一定要讲成绩\n\n\n竞聘\n解决的两个问题\n\n\n为什么是你\n\n\n这个职位\n\n\n如何讲\n表达对这个岗位的理解\n赋予这个岗位一个跟别人不一样的更深刻的理解\n证明自己的能力\n\n你比别人更适合，也就是你的优势\n\n\n\n不介绍经历，去介绍经验\n\n经历只是流水账的告诉别人自己过去做了什么\n经验是经历之中，积累的对这个岗位有帮助的一些技能和技巧。在经验后要加背书，就是获得过什么成绩，往往举一个具体案例\n\n\n\n一个更厉害方法：讲出现有问题，讲出大家心里的痛点，提出解决方案\n\n\n兴趣和价值观，与岗位相符的地方\n\n\n在适合之上，多一份热爱，让大家感受到你对这个岗位的热情\n\n\n对价值的阐述，是一种非常高明的恭维\n\n\n塑造个人魅力\n\n\n往往支持一个人，不仅是认为这个人能力符合，我们认可的是这个人本身\n\n\n尤其在不熟悉你的人的场合\n\n\n两大保底技巧\n\n\n强烈表达你提供资源和帮助的愿望，也是展现自己能提供的价值\n\n\n示弱：展示谦虚与真实可靠\n\n\n\n\n表达信心和请求支持\n\n收尾让听众支持你\n\n\n\nyes，we can\n\n\n台上体面也很重要：希望大家支持你；让我们一起去建设一个更好的xxx\n\n\n失败了也能坦然面对，还是继续愿意给大家提供帮助，这种话不要讲\n\n\n饭局\n在饭局想成为焦点，还是一定要说属于自己的话\n模板：感谢、回顾和希望\n感谢\n将话头接过来，可以表达你此刻的心情，也可以说一些赞美的话\n回顾\n\n\n选一个人或一个群体身上最重要的品质和特征来讲\n\n\n也可以讲这个人给你带来的影响\n\n\n围绕彼此之间的关系来讲，发挥说几个短小案例\n\n\n一个点三个例子，比三个点各一个例子要好得多\n\n\n反复强调让能记得关键信息\n\n\n\n\n说一下这个人对大家的意义和帮助，最好也有具体的案例\n\n\n\n注意不要代表别人发言，如我们都应该向你学习都不如你之流，得罪现场的人\n\n祝福和希望\n\n\n怎么走心？人们说什么，你尽量不要说\n\n\n体察听众或你讲话对象的需要，有针对性，就会觉得你是用心\n\n\n技巧方式\n\n\n伤感式，悲剧更走心，是我们的天性\n\n\n力量承诺式\n\n\n圈出一个群体着重说，再撒面式也提及大家\n\n\n\n\n真是嘴笨，也不要用成语，就用朴素的口语比套话也要好\n\n\n即兴表达\n三类人不怕即兴说话\n\n\n肚子里有货，见过很多世面和知识\n\n\n储备多，例如主持人灵活应对突发状况，实际上他们对各种情况累积的一些应对方法在脑海中，越来越纯熟\n\n\n有即兴的技巧\n\n\n即兴的2分钟，可能是过去20年的积累决定的\n每个人都有自己的说话风格，这是跟他过去的语言储备有关\n争取时间\n需即兴讲话时，首先要做的就是争取时间，需要给自己一点时间去思考\n\n\n不能让现场冷场\n\n\n不能去跟别人讨论一个很复杂的问题，脑子才能抽出来想下来的答案\n\n\n几种办法\n\n\n重复问题，能争取几秒钟\n\n\n讨论几句如赞美问题，或者分析一下自己的心情\n\n\n多给观众机会，然后去选择问题\n\n\n问观众自己的情况\n\n\n鼓励听众鼓掌\n\n\n用问题中的关键词转移掉，变成一个更容易的问题或者说你的话题让我想到什么\n\n\n\n\n克服完美主义，果断开口\n\n\n脱口而出的人，大多数人都会后悔，少部分人觉得在某些瞬间，自己讲得精彩\n\n\n不再多想原则：大多数人对一个问题的第一反应，基本上就是他能想到的最好答案了\n\n\n顶多再反问自己一句：还有更好的答案吗？然后就不要再多想了\n\n\n你不可能在现场两三分钟想出一个特别棒，自己以前都不知道的答案\n\n\n不用那么迟疑，否则会显得很不自信\n\n\n\n\n说话三段论\n开头切入\n\n找一个角度，还是说其中一个概念，从宏观层面，还是从微观层面。\n\n\n\n你要说：关于这个问题，我想从哪里谈谈\n\n\n或者重复一下听到的上一个人说的话，如刚刚xx他说了这样一个问题，对这个问题….\n\n\n丢出自己的观点和说话的结构\n\n\n即兴表达由于没提前准备好，容易越说越啰嗦，一定要注意，不要啰嗦\n\n\n没有观点没有重点和支支吾吾都不要\n\n一定要用简单的结构，如问题+方案，问题+原因的等\n\n\n\n这里可偷懒用排比句，主持人特别喜欢用排比句，因为不费脑，句式结构一样，只需替换部分就可以\n\n排比句还不用那么有逻辑\n\n\n\n结束最好是金句，想不到的话，用呼吁行动方式去结束\n\n\n坦率破一切尴尬，这是最后的武器\n\n\n保持真实，不会有人会取笑你\n\n\n忌讲不出来还拼命掩盖\n\n\n积累比技巧重要，练习比学习重要\n\n\n好好积累说话素材，且多去练习\n\n\n学会争取时间，用几个小方法让自己多想一会儿\n\n\n克服完美主义，大胆开口，不要多想原则，结构性的表达\n\n\n实在不行的场景，坦率处之\n\n\n路演\n\n一般时间是很短的，最长也不会超过半小时\n\n讲清楚你的目标\n\n\n证明市场上，确实存在一个没被完全满足的需求\n\n\n人们愿意掏钱买你的产品，去解决这个需求\n\n\n未来向把公司做成什么样子，达到什么规模，有什么样的收益，描绘蓝图\n\n\n讲清楚达到目标的途径\n这部分你实际要讲的是赚钱的模式\n\n点子本身是不值钱的， 你想到去做一件事情的时候，地球上已有成千上万想过了。\n一定要告诉别人如何把点子变成现实，去达到在目标部分描绘的蓝图\n投资人关心的是收益，你不能让投资人自己去思考，投入之后能不能赚钱，能赚多少钱这个事情。你要告诉他，这个产品怎么卖出去，怎么就能达到那样一个规模和收益。\n还有一点，你的主要竞品是谁，毕竟它是你在执行自己的商业计划时除了钱可能碰到的最大障碍。\n\n讲清楚执行能力\n讲你自己和你的团队是怎么回事，你们身上有哪些品质，有什么东西可以证明，你们一定能把自己的目标和计划执行完毕\n\n\n有点子的人多，但执行的人少，愿意开始的人多，但坚持的人少。心潮澎湃的人，对于有经验的投资人来说，见得太多了。\n\n\n你的执行记录包括，你们产品获过什么奖项，你自己过去领导一个团队的经验是什么，有没有过创业的经验。把你过去的执行记录，干了什么，告诉投资人。\n\n\n投资人很喜欢投一些连续创业者，贴有坚韧、有执行能力，有执行毅力的标签。\n此部分最为重要。因为最重要的就是投人。投那些有经验的，愿意坚持到底的，有组织能力的，需带领团队往前走，投那些诚实的人。\n提出你的要求\n\n\n打算融资多少，出多少股份，融资用途是什么， 目前你公司的资金结构怎样，你自己投了么? 还是用了你亲戚的钱?\n\n\n这是一个报价的环节，你要对方付出的代价是什么，要掏多少钱，以及他得到的回报是什么，会影响到回报的因素，也要介绍给他。\n\n\n自己做陈述的时候就要说清楚问题，避免投资人对一些基本问题提问，会显得你准备的不充分。\n\n\n峰终\n不要以你和投资人间的问答去结束，做一个自己的总结。\n\n\n重新描绘一下自己的蓝图，用排比句更有激情\n\n\n表达你做此事的决心，可强调自己的信念和价值观\n\n\n给一个强有力的承诺\n\n\n整个过程，你证明两件事：你做这个事情，能为投资人赚到钱，第二件事，你可以帮他们挣到，不是别人。证明你是一个头脑清晰的人，适合创业的人，是一个值得他们投这笔钱的人。\n销售\n生活之中处处是推销，重点是用户心理分析，而不是一味的介绍手上自己的东西。\n用户的典型心理\n摸清心理需求，才知道在销售的过程中，应该说什么，应该怎么说\n\n你不要拐弯抹角兜圈子，你以为我不知道你想卖我东西？\n如果你让我觉得假，觉得不诚实，那么我不可能向你买任何东西\n不要总说你家产品好，多适合我，给我一个理由为何你的产品和服务适合我？\n证明给我看，我更愿意买\n让我知道我不是唯一买你家东西的人，他们买之后使用情况和感受如何，满意吗？\n不能买完这个东西后，你们就不管我了，告诉我会提供什么售后服务，不要跟我说那么多空话，如果我用了不好，会怎么办\n不管我多有钱，不管你东西多好，我希望付出的价格是合理的。首先不能比别人高，不能你突然降价，不能你是暴利的\n不要否定我，说我以前买的东西差，以前的决定多蠢，我不想听\n不管你说你家产品多好，价格都合理，做选择，我还是担心会做错，需要你给我一些支持和肯定\n不要与我争辩，我不想别人来否定我的观点，与我争论\n不要总是让我听你说，给我说话的机会，我希望最好感觉是自己做的决定\n一定让我感觉与众不同，很明智。我确实想要一个折扣，但不想让你觉得我是个抠门在意钱的人\n让我有个好心情，否则我付款概率会降低\n帮我去做选择，而不是一门心思向我推销，然我感觉你想把我口袋的钱，转移到你口袋中去\n\n一上来就罗列自家产品好处，像机器人一样，背词讲述并不符合用户的心理要求。这样你再热情，也很难变成一个优秀的销售人员。还有一种销售特别喜欢在说话时做对比，这样会让消费者陷入一个更纠结的转态。因为市面上的产品，很少没缺点只有优点，无非就是价格，产品质量，产品优缺点之间的一个平衡，所以你一上来就一直做产品的对比并不是最明智的。\n互动挖掘客户需求\n最好让客户说自己需要什么，自己怎么想的，他说的越多，你成功可能性越大。\n真正的需求，并不是表面的需求\n就如需要一个包，并不是为了包的实用性去买，而是因为虚荣心。你要准确抓住用户心理，抓住她想展现和炫耀的这种心理，去做推销。\n多数时候，用户要么不说，要么说不清楚自己到底需要什么，用户调研会有陷阱。就想调研“你喜不喜欢一些娱乐型的内容”，大家都说不喜欢，大家天天刷抖音，并不喜欢看一些深度的内容。所以她以为的和他最后的行动，可能有不相符的地方，你需要通过每次销售去验证“哪些是真正的需求，哪些是表面的需求”。\n具体的需求而不是模糊的需求\n减肥产品不能说你买完后，会变得更好，这种话就非常模糊。而是要讲：你一定要减肥，为啥，你给他看一个三斤脂肪的图片，看这就是三斤肉贴在肚子上的感受。才好说服对方其确实需要\n眼前这个人的需求而不是群体需求\n每个人具体的需求实际上不一样，你永远要把你的客户看成一个人，去细致体察他到底需要什么，而不是这个群体需要什么。\n问是一个特别好的互动方式，让听众自己参与其中，而不是你自以为是的强加给他的需求。详细的描述这个需求是什么样子，在什么场景发生的，他更容易觉得你说的是他们想要的。\n挖掘和描述需求，就是演讲的第一个部分，跟听众发生一种共鸣。\n介绍你的产品\n不要上来就讲自家产品比任何家的都好\n\n首先说你家产品有哪些特征和品质。\n然后说你家产品优势在哪里，如“得过xx第一认证”等等特别的优势。\n最后要说对用户有什么好处，这部分越具体越好，代入感才强。\n\n用户最喜欢听的是什么，是故事。如果时间允许，可以加一个产品的故事（如其他用户用过后的产品故事），来打动这个听众。\n促销\n\n能让用户现在行动的方法，都称之为促销\n\n用户虽然认可产品，但可能并不会及时去行动，等几天可能就去看别的产品。 另外，现场用户关注的好处，是如何满足他的需求，而回到家后，可能关注的就是成本了。需要用一些促销手段，让用户现在就行动。用户很多时候也是需要你去推一把的。\n低端产品可以给个限时折扣，高端产品可以强调稀缺性。\n\n100人中，可能愿意当下就行动的，只有10个或5个，另外20~30人，都是喜欢想想再行动的人。所以现场没有征服客户，千万不要丧气。\n\n肯定你的消费者\n在良好的自我感受和一个好心情，再去说促销的部分，会更容易帮助你去达成目的。用各种方法去肯定对方，让他知道自己做的这个决定是对的，是非常值得骄傲的，就会促进他的购买行动。\n“在我们国家，只有1%的人能看到这个机会，只有1%的聪明人，才能抓住这个机会”。如果再有客户崇拜和喜欢的人买过，客户不刷卡都难以相信。\n尊重选择权\n大家都喜欢有选择权，对小孩亦如此。\n在有选择的情况下，人才乐于改变；营造选择感的话术，并不是欺骗，而是从对方角度出发，表现你的关心和体谅。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["软技能"]},{"title":"如何拥有痛苦而又抑郁的人生","url":"/%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%8B%A5%E6%9C%89%E7%97%9B%E8%8B%A6%E8%80%8C%E5%8F%88%E6%8A%91%E9%83%81%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F.html","content":"\n如果想生活痛苦一些，照着下面做，疗效非常好\n坚持做容易的选择\n容易的选项和从众心理，是危险的。碰到挑战忍不住想退缩，多年后回头看，才发现人生的关键点，都是那些挑战。\n初期入场的难度是最低的，面对便宜的股票和房产，绝大部分人看不上。人生可以的选择会越来越少。\n人类的幸福不相通，痛苦却是一样的，想法千奇百怪，到了落实阶段，绝大多数人选择了容易的选项。第一个保持痛苦的秘诀就是一直做容易的选择。\n保持孤僻\n这个窍门就是保持孤僻，谁也别理，给自己筑一道隐形的墙，效果非常好\n准备好了再开始\n这就是第三个窍门了。黄埔将星璀璨的那几期，并不是学校教的好，其实只上了7个月的课，而且也没教啥，都是在后来的战争中成长了起来；\n这在商界中也非常明显，学习牛逼的去了美丽国，剩下的在中国市场化大浪潮中拼搏，挺过来的都是神人了。\n事情比知识重要，有事先做事，反复思考后充分意识到困难，就拖着一直不开始，停留在思考阶段，初心到头来你都会忘记。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"存算分离","url":"/%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB.html","content":"\n概念内涵和缘由\n计算是核心，数据是原料或产物，计算能脱离存储？\n概念窄化明确\n\n\n存储：持久化\n\n\n计算过程中的存储归纳为计算（cpu+内存）\n\n\n新瓶装旧酒？\n20 年前就有NAS-网络附加存储（使用 TCP/IP协议的以太网文件服务器），价格较贵扩展困难。重提计算和存储分离肯定要做出点不一样，我们放到后续展开\n综合言之，经典计算机概念中，都是移动存储到计算。但在大数据体系下，大家慢慢接受移动计算到存储（MR），哪怕 MR 本质都还是存储和计算耦合的架构.\n存算分离的弱势\n\n\n在讲分离之前，还是要明确完全的存储与计算分离是伪需求（网络传输与我们当前 CPU 的处理速度还是完全不匹配）\n\n随着技术的进步，瓶颈不是在网络速度，在磁盘 IO 速度，计算和存储耦合的架构缺点逐渐暴露。\n机器浪费\n计算先到瓶颈，还是存储先到瓶颈，两种情况往往不一样，时间点也不一样\n\n计算不够，加一台机器\n存储不够，也加一台机器\n\n这样粗放的操作架构中的浪费明显\n机器配比需频繁更新\n一个公司的机器配型（CPU、内存、存储）一般比较固定，业务的不断发展，配型需要不断更新扩充变化\n扩展不易\n存储不够了经常需扩展，耦合模型下扩展就存在迁移大量数据\nRDMA\n既然基于网络分离，又不同于 NAS，怎么装新酒？酒又是什么味道？\n前面说 IO 才是瓶颈，现有的网络机制又瓶颈？ – YES\nSSD 催生网络接口性能要升级\n\n10Gbps 带宽下，ISCSI 架构，iodepth=32，block-size=4k，随机读写，IOPS在 TCP 下能做到 160k，吞吐能力超过网卡上限的一半，远超单磁盘能力，所以已很够用。\nSSD 性能，单盘 180k 以上的 IOPS，NVME SSD 单盘 550k iops，SSD 时代存储网络中，呼声要变革现有网络传输机制\n\nRDMA 的特征描述与历史沿革\n目标：降低网络吞吐时延\n核心关键词：Direct\n详细解释\n\nRemote：通过网络传输\nDirect：没有内核参与，有关发送传输的所有内容都 offloading 到网卡上\nMemory：在用户空间虚拟内存与 RINC 网卡直接进行数据传输，不设计系统内核，没有额外的数据移动复制\nAccess：Send、Receive、Read、Write、Atomic 操作\n\n在 RDMA 技术下，吞吐能力比 TCP 高 6-7 倍，应用于 GPU 间，能带来一倍的时延下降，小包传输方面能带来 3 倍性能提升，能达到 2G 的通信带宽时延从 20 微秒下降到 10 微秒\n罗马不是一日建成的\n\nCPU 参与 TCP 协议栈的处理，封解包涉及用户态/系统态数据传递\nTCP Offloading Engine：主机处理器的工作转移到网卡上（万兆网卡一般都支持）\nUser-Net Networking\n\n协议处理部分移动到用户空间去处理\nU-Net 应用程序可通过 MUX 直接访问网络\n\nU-Net 的 virtual NI 为每个进程提供了一种拥有网络接口的错觉\n避免用户空间数据移动和复制到内核空间的开销\n\n\n\n\nVIA（Virtual Interface Architecture）\n\n标准化 user-level 的网络通信模式\n组合 U-Net 接口和远程 DMA 设备\n\n\n\n实施特点\n\n把资料直接传入计算机存储区，将数据从一个系统快速移动到远程系统存储器中\n消除了外部存储器复制和上下文切换的开销\n解放内存带宽和 CPU 周期用于改进应用系统性能\n\n通过专有的 RDMA 网卡，提供一个专有的 verbs interface 而不是传统的 TCP/IP Socket Interface，当数据路径建立后，应用程序可直接访问用户空间的 Buffer\n\n网络实现\n\nInfiniband（IB）\n\n专为 RDMA 设计的网络，从硬件级别保证可靠传输，无损链路层，可防止使用链路层（基于拥塞）流量控制的损失\n需要支持该技术的网卡和交换机：硬件成本+运维成本\n性能最好，可达到 40Gbps\n最早 IBM 和 HP 一群大佬在搞，有 10 几年历史，现在是 IBM 控股的以色列公司 Mellanax 在做\n\n基于以太网的 RDMA 技术\n\n支持 verbs 接口\n仅需使用特殊网卡，都还使用 IB 定义的 user space api\n\nRoCE（互联网圈火）\nMellanax 鉴于 IB 过于昂贵这个事实推出的一种低成本产品，较低网络标头是以太网标头，较高网络标头（包括数据是Infiniband标头）\n\nRoCEv1: 基于以太网链路层实现的 RDMA 协议（交换机需支持 PFC 等流控技术，物理层保证可靠传输）\nRoCEv2: 以太网中 UDP 层实现\n\niWARP\n\n在 TCP 上执行 RDMA 网络协议\n网卡特殊–支持iWARP（使用 cpu offloading），否则就丧失大部分 RDMA 优势了\n实际上用得不多\n\n为啥没成为标配\n技术难度\n\n去掉操作系统这个中间层，很多事情变得复杂化了\n\n新接口 ibverbs/rdmacm，暴露了很多细节，如内存注册，要考虑 RDMA 网卡缓存容量不够\n\n\n多数应用其实都不会真正去调 Socket\n欠缺通用成熟的 RDMA 扩展，不友好于上层应用开发者\n\n硬件成本\n\n需更新网卡和中间交换设备\n近几年才上万兆网卡，还不舍得换更贵的\n\n场景\n\n不考虑通用，真正有动力采用 RDMA 的，使用已经很广泛\n\n\n分布式 AI 框架\n分离式存储架构\n非必要情况下，都在考虑收益，如 Spark 这样的任务，真正有网络 IO 的 shuffle 阶段可能只占整个任务的 3%~5%，更多是离线，觉得未到非用不可的地步\n\n\nDB 篇\nNewSQL 的新趋势\n数据库集群的传统矛盾\n\n分布式事务\n集群吞吐量线性扩展\n\nNoSQL 和 SQL 的融合\n\nNoSQL 大规模，高吞吐，易扩缩容，自动容错\nSQL 的通用性，支持复杂查询，分布式事务\n\n架构带盐人\nGoogle Spanner（扳手）\n\nShare Nothing\n重点解决分布式事务和性能线性扩展的矛盾\n\nAmazon Aurora（极光/曙光)\n\nShare Storage\n存储分布式化，突破物理单机的限制\n一写多读，更高的吞吐量\n\nAurora 模式优势说明\n优势场景\n\n读多写少-性能提升\n成本是商用解法的1/10\n应云而生：节约成本，敏捷创新 – 企业上云的核心驱动力\n\n分离优势总结\n\n提升资源利用率，降低云成本。共享存储，空间扩展更简单\n相比一主两从的传统 RDS 集群具备更高的性能，写性能扩展\n更有利于数据库实例实现一写多读\n存储计算分离，且把存储计算的网络流量降到最低\n\n国产类 Aurora 数据库 Cynos（北极星）\n\n\n计算层：负责SQL解析、日志生成等；\n\n\n存储层：负责数据存储，日志归档，日志合并等。\n\n\n日志即存储，主从内存页同步\n\n主客户端不断将 CynosStoreJournal（CSJ）从主实例发送到从实例\n与relaylog不同，不用等到日志全部 Apply\nDB engine 就可以读到这些日志所修改的最新版本\n\n日志转换为页由存储层消化，只要主实例将日志持久化至Store Node，从实例即可读到这些日志所修改的最新版本数据页，特别适合一写多读的场景\nCSJ 比 Binlog 更底层，不讲细节，只描述能力，类型有如下几种：\n\nSetByte\nSetBit\nClearBlock\nDataMove\nuserDefined\n\nCSJ 的抽象尝试隔离数据库引擎，不仅局限于 postgresql，设定基于块/页的，都可以转换成这 5 种日志来，这种非典型的做法带来了理解的复杂性，也可以对照 Aurora 的文章来理解。\n用户态 IO\n\n提升磁盘操作效率：SPDK（Storage Performance Development Kit）provides a set of tools and libraries for writing high performance ,scalable ,user-mode storage applications\n解决网络传输效率\n\nRDMA（硬）：RDMA 与 TCP 对比测试中，可明显看到 4K 数据的传输平均时延缩短 6~7us（微秒），在 4K 数据的 echo 测试中，CPU 使用率降低了 65%\n日志即存储（软）\n\n计算层不再将脏页发送到数据层\n只发增量日志，存储层异步将日志转换为数据页\n写流量在某些基准测试下，能减少 60%\n\n\n\n\n\n分层设计（以兼容 pgsql 举例）\n\n灰色部分是 PostgreSQL 内核原生模块\n\n\nSQL 引擎\n\n词法/语法分析\n语义分析\n查询重写/优化\n查询优化\n\n\n\nAccess：数据库访问层，定义了对象的组织方式和访问方法\n\n\nStorage/Buffer\n\nbuffer pool和存储管理\n用文件接口对数据文件进行读写\nCynosDB 使用 CynosStorageClient 对 CynosStore 中的文件进行操作\n\n\n\n参考\n1.CSDN RDMA的三种实现方式 ↩2.博客园 详解RDMA 架构和技术原理 ↩3.腾讯云 CynosDB的计算层设计优化揭秘 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"学习风格与发展方式","url":"/%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n在鹅厂育龙培训时，见过一些关于学习风格的总结，认为符合观察到的情况且有代表性。总结学习风格是为了区分性的引导同事，以得到更有效的提升发展。\n\n迄今为止，承认特殊性的存在，是我觉得社会科学领域的结论能站得住脚的前提。再进行良好/有趣的分类分析总结，才有意义。\n\n学习风格差异\n就像每个出生的小朋友天生就有精力，性格差别倾向一样，不同的小朋友被有效对待的方式自然要求也不同。进入正式教育阶段后，每个人的学习风格也是有别的。大致可以划分为如图的4类，挑了一个有趣点的说明图，有两个类型的边界不是那么清晰，用英语来释义区别更加精确。\n\nACTIVIST（行动者）-experience: Do it!\nPRAGMATIST（应用者）-plan: Let’s try it out!\nREFLECTOR（反思者）-review: What happened and why?\nTHEORIST（理论者）-conclude: How can we do it?\n\n\n其中ACTIVIST和PRAGMATIST相比，只是更加激进点，两者的实践精神都都强。套用这套定义，自己更贴近REFLECTOR，看官们可以瞅瞅自己属于哪一种。\n培养方式差异\n不同的学习风格，配套合适的培养发展方式，才能得到更好的效果。\n\n乐于行动的，就适合在做中学。\n理论者更多安排些参加培训或让其进行分享。\n反思者适于自学或向他人学习，这类人一般也比较谦逊。\n\n封面图的内容还有一点精华的点是我之前看到的培训里没有讲明的：行动者的镜像是理论者, 反思者的镜像是应用者。\n总结一图\n\n一图胜千言，且看\n\n\n学习分两种\n\n\n一种为信息获取，就是读书看报上课听讲追新闻之类的。\n\n\n另一种是训练-把知识通过自己身体的加工再输出成某个成果。例如反复练习一个打球动作，把几页纸文档变成PPT，把读过的书用自己的口语表达出来。这都算训练。\n\n\n\n训练比信息获取重要的多，训练的好处是你把软的知识转化成类似于肌肉记忆这样的东西完成实质上的提升。很多人学习很用功，但是进步很少，为啥呢？也许就是这个原因，他们只是在吸取知识，但是从来不是给自己在训练。\n在没有压力的情况下，很多人没有养成自我训练的习惯，就比如我自己，做了很多信息吸取的事情，虽然领会快速，一点就破，但长期下来，还是离造就影响力差了一个台阶，现在开始通过写和不断修改日志开始刻意在培养自己的训练习惯，先把『百万成神』当做一个短期目标。\n组织管理画像分类\n情境领导\n从组织管理的角度讲，还有情境领导和PDP性格测试，也有四分类，应用面更加广泛，一并铺出，图片来自网络\n\n四分类不仅仅在大汉族历史里流行–我们什么都要凑个四大xx，花旦和公子都要凑够4，个体级别或许都层次不齐\n\n\nPDP 性格测试\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["HR"]},{"title":"家庭的觉醒","url":"/%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92.html","content":"\n导语：重要是成人自己内心的觉醒，我们越觉醒，离孩子的心便越近，也越能给孩子温柔而有力量的教养体魄、情感和心智全面成长的孩子。\n\n简而言之，人生健康比绩优主义重要的多。但整本书还是有阶级定位的，这一切很难在困顿国家/家庭中大范围讨论，所以若你觉得此主题虚头巴脑，你是对的\n\n镜子前的怒火\n是孩子点燃了我们的怒火，我们得想个办法让他改变变得更好，改掉坏毛病，这几乎是所有父母本能反应。你内心深处那个我的孩子必须是自律，优秀的完美设定受到了挑战，你倍感自己做父母的失败。绝大多数的育儿焦虑和情绪失控都源于我们的自我。这个自我是什么？它就像一个住在我们心里的形象总监，会觉得自己的权威受到了挑战，自己的价值被否定了。于是愤怒，焦虑，失望等情绪便排山倒海而来。\n但问题的关键其实在我们自己身上，孩子就像一面无比清晰的镜子，他并没有做错什么，他只是以他最真实的样子存在着，当我们在镜子前暴跳如雷时，不是镜子出了问题，是我们看到镜子里自己无法接纳的焦虑的，恐惧的不完美的影像。我们试图擦拭，修正甚至砸碎这面镜子，来让自己好受一点。\n但真正要做的，是转身向内看，去疗愈那个影像背后的我们自己内在的伤痛和匮乏，这就是家庭觉醒第一步。我们对孩子的要求，都是为了满足我们自己的自我，而不是孩子真正的福祉，你的孩子不是你用来炫耀的作品，也不是你人生的延续，更不是弥补自己遗憾的工具，他只是一面镜子，来帮助你看见真实的自己。\n内在的小孩\n\n镜子里让你抓狂的形象，是你被压抑的内在小孩的哭泣和求救。\n\n\n我们每个人心里都住着一个过去的自己，那个小孩可能在童年时因为哭闹被父母呵斥，不许哭，再苦就关小黑屋。可能因为考试没考好， 被父母冷落和羞辱，可能想要一个玩具被拒绝， 同时被贴上一个不懂事的标签，可能不得不放弃自己喜欢的画画，而去学父母觉得更有前途的钢琴。\n在那些时刻，我们作为孩子的真实感受，悲伤，恐惧，渴望，愤怒，没有被看见，没有被允许，更没有被安抚，为了生存，为了继续得到父母的爱，我们学会了压抑这些感受。把那个受伤，委屈，不被理解的小孩关进了内心的小黑屋。长大成熟了似乎已经忘了那个小孩的存在，但他一直潜伏在我们的潜意识里。\n直到有一天，我们有了自己的孩子，我们的孩子就像一个时间旅行者，用他天性中的真实，脆弱和毫无保留的情感表达，精准的一次又一次敲开我们那个小黑屋的门。例如一个妈妈只要看到自己5岁的女儿在公共场合因为一点小事哭闹，就会瞬间被点燃，会觉得无比羞耻和愤怒，会用非常严厉的方式制止女儿，在她自己的童年里，她是极度懂事的孩子，因为她的妈妈总是告诉她，家里穷，你要乖，不要给大人添麻烦。所以她从小就学会了压抑自己的所有需求和情绪，现在当她看到女儿可以如此肆无忌惮的表达自己的欲望和不满，她内心那个被压抑几十年的小孩开始尖叫，这不公平。\n表面上是管教，是为了孩子好，但深层未被觉察的驱动力却是她对自己童年缺失的嫉妒和不平，真正在对抗的不是眼前哭闹的女儿，而是过去那个强行被自己压抑下去的渴望被看见被允许的自己。\n每一个让我们情绪失控的育儿瞬间，都是一个宝贵的路标，指向的不是孩子的问题行为，而是我们内心深处未被疗愈的创伤，我们之所以想要急切的去管教孩子，其实是我们内在受伤的那个小孩在用一种扭曲的方式向我们求救，他希望我们能停下来看一看他，抱一抱他，告诉他我知道你当年的委屈了，我现在来爱你了。\n真正的觉醒不是向外挥舞管教的鞭子，而是伸出向内疗愈的双手，疗愈自己，才是给孩子最好的礼物。一个内心完整，情绪平和的父母自然会养育出一个内心丰盈充满安全感的孩子。\n坦然的联结\n真正的联接始于你全然看见他本来的样子，知道了问题所在，接下来最关键的一步是到底该怎么做。是不是我们什么都不管，任由孩子发展？当然不是，答案不是无作为，而是不妄为，是一种放下，转而全然与孩子同在的智慧。\n联接永远先于纠正，没有联结的管教只是压迫，而有了联结，很多时候你甚至不需要管教，问题会自然化解。当我们放下自我的执念，疗愈了内在的创伤，学会了与孩子深度联接，我们会发现一个全新的更广阔的世界。这意味着我们不再用二元对立框架去评判我们的孩子。全力支持他找到自己的热爱，并为此由衷感到惊喜，而不是仅执念于你的看法如成绩单。\n\n他内向、敏感，我们不再焦虑的想把他推出去，变得开朗活泼，而是欣赏他那份独特的细腻和深度，保护他那份宝贵的感受力。\n他是一个充满活力的破坏大王，我们不再只是看到麻烦和混乱，而是尝试看懂他们那份旺盛的生命力和探索欲，并为他创造一个安全并让他尽情探索的环境。\n\n我们不再将他看做一个需要被填满的空瓶子，或是一块需要被雕琢的璞玉，认识到他是一个独特带着自身生命密码的灵魂，像一个专业的园丁一样去观察他到底是一颗什么样的种子，是向日葵就给他阳光，是一颗松树，就给他屹立于风雪的土壤，不会强求一颗向日葵长成松树的样子，只是满怀敬畏和欣喜的陪伴他，滋养他，看着他长成他自己最绚烂最挺拔的样子。\n蜕变\n从一个焦虑的管理者，蜕变成一个宁静的观察者。我们见证一个生命的舒展，见证他所有的快乐，悲伤，成功与失败。\n不再把他的成就看成是我们的勋章，把他的挫折看做是我们的耻辱，只是作为他生命中最坚定的支持者。\n告知他的存在本来就是这个世界最美的礼物，当孩子能从父母眼中持续地接收到这样无条件接纳的信号时，他内在的生命力就会被彻底激活，会变得勇敢，自信，敢于尝试，也敢于失败，因为他知道身后永远有一个温暖的港湾，这才是我们能给孩子最根本的赋能。\n胡长的树-无用之用\n有用和无用，是现代人亟待解决的课题。在这个追求效率和功用的时代，有人为了有用随波逐流，长成了别人眼中的『栋梁之材』，但当整个社会只将这一种成材奉为圭臬，只认可笔直的树干和既定的轨迹时，那些蜿蜒的枝丫，自由的形态，便被归入了『无用』之列。\n如果把一个人比喻成一个树，那在优绩主义的影响下，我们一直在被修剪成有用的形状，是好苗子，要成为栋梁之树，不要旁生枝节，要遥遥领先，无🌲匹敌，要换上金盆，赢得世俗的全部认可，要一路披荆斩棘。在社会的丛林法则里卷成优绩主义的胜利者，看起来在人生这棵树上，唯有如此才可以交出满分答卷。\n有些金盆里的盆栽做到让所有人满意时，自己也停止了生长。当野性被驯服，当在精致的牢笼里日渐枯萎，当为有用耗尽心力时，你会发现，它符合一切关于成功的想象，却唯独失去了生长的内在动力与欢愉。\n野外那些胡长的树，他们不问东西，自在舒展，以它们蓬勃的生命力为我们展现了『有用』的另一种可能，它们或许不成栋梁，却为飞鸟提供栖枝，为大地投下荫凉，它们不循规蹈矩，却构成了自然最丰富，最动人的风景。它们的价值并不符合任何外部标准，而是全然接纳并活出了自身的生命形态。\n长不长，长成什么样，树自己说了算。生命本身都具有足够的意义，它更像是一场向内而行的旅程，一次与真我相遇的仪式。\n不要用学校和社会的标准去评价你的孩子，他一定是某个领域的千里马，你唯一的职责是想办法找到这个领域。能力才是重要的，学历是作为伴随产物存在的，故相比较学历就不重要。 AI 世代推进回归本源，回归能力，未来社会比拼领域深耕的能力，所以兴趣是第一位的。\n\n举例：语言天赋，逻辑数学天赋（喜欢探究为什么），空间天赋（建筑师、飞行员、画家，创造和驾驭虚拟空间），自然天赋（对自然界和观察设备感兴趣）、肢体动觉天赋，人际天赋，内省天赋（与自己的内在世界建立深度连接，自我调节控制，也适合哲学心理探究）、音乐天赋等\n\n结语\n我们养育孩子，孩子也在养育我们，唤醒我们内在最深处的智慧和慈悲，愿你终能跟内在小孩真诚相拥，也成为孩子生命中那面清澈温暖永不碎裂的明镜。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["育儿"]},{"title":"家驹六月天","url":"/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html","content":"\n刚开始听流行歌曲，是从表哥那里得到的一盘古惑仔的磁带。一开始是郑伊健的fans，那么帅的长发是不，视觉冲击力非凡，结合影视作品，古惑仔，话说说风云1的特效放到现在看仍然能打。\n忆不清是从哪里第一次拿到Beyond的磁带，应该是同学推荐的，结下了喜爱的缘分。在网络兴起的时代，也主动搜索过阅读过不少乐队的信息。可能在于Beyond40周年的推动，在23年竟然又看到听到不少没接触过的视频音频。感叹短视频爆发的时代，内容上传和传播的力量。\n转眼间，家驹已经离开30周年，时间飞快。各位Beyond的成员也都接近耳顺的年纪。虽然乐队成员亦有不和，但大家都感激他们曾带来的音乐力量和美好的回忆。按短视频里的夸张说法，如果没有Beyond曾经的存在，吉他行业（零售+教学）可能都要萎缩几成。\n为什么能传唱这么多年\n Beyond是一个有着左翼情怀的乐队，赤子少年心，谁不爱黄家驹。\n吸毒、性、自我放纵 这些在摇滚乐里常见的主题，在Beyond的歌词里比较少见，他们表达的东西和思想与其他歌手有蛮大的不同，能进入人们的内心，家驹的访谈也看得出三观吊打很多二十多岁的同龄人。另一方面音乐不仅仅是拿技术说事，Beyond的作品因为精神内核和编曲简单合理所以传唱度好和再翻弹频次高。同为音乐偶像，很多摇滚乐队如披头士有严重的吸毒史，克莱普顿也有种族歧视言论，东方社会的内核，反而造就了持续40年的传奇。\n\n摇滚乐诞生的基础是原创、原创、还是原创。虽然港台接触欧美摇滚乐要早很多，但摇滚乐基本和内地一样从 80 年代大发展。Beyond 做到了属于香港的音乐，而不是欧美的附属品，作品突破了粤语区，成为了一代华人的记忆。凭借极其丰富的风格和扎实的能力，示范了如何平衡作品的流行性、思想性和艺术性。家驹在商业高峰期展现了极强的旋律能力，同时保留两个标志性的东西：硬摇滚打底的具有冲击力的听感，内涵丰富视野开阔的歌词内容。前期偏艺术性，后期风格化人声旋律弱化，总结他们的职业生涯是充满探索、妥协和坚持的，丰富多彩的旅程。至于他们有没有被高估？看看还在流传的作品，就已经有答案了。\n\n探索期主要受硬摇滚，金属音乐和前卫音乐的影响，较重视歌曲的艺术性，还会有一些器乐曲目，明显能感觉到西方经典摇滚乐的影响。随着签约新艺宝，进入商业高峰期，不管是比较重的作品还是轻快的作品，大都旋律流畅，作品欣赏难度降低，这个时期的编曲也大都是旋律化的，成为 Beyond 最为大众熟知的编曲风格。家驹离世后，三子时期音乐开始更加风格化，优美又伤感追忆的《二楼后座》后，后面的专辑里进行了开放性的探索，《sound》 中爆裂的吉他音色，《惊喜》里时髦的电子音色，人声稍微退后，但硬摇滚仍是作品的骨架，增添了很多另类摇滚的元素，氛围感出色，但人声旋律的弱化，这也带来了商业性和传唱度的下降。\n\n摇滚传奇\nBeyond确实是香港最成功，也最有名的乐队，这三十年还没有乐队超越，有其历史原因，也说明其它的确还不够成功。有没有一个乐队像以前60年代的英国乐队披头士，他们的地位是很难超越的，他们出来的早，而且全世界都知道。Beyond就类似披头士的热潮一样，你要超过Beyond很难，但也不是不可能。\nBeyond去日本的时候，在香港已经是顶峰了，要冲出香港的话，内地市场当初还没开放所以不在考虑之列，台湾也尝试过，最主要还是日本有唱片公司看上了他们，认为他们在香港是一线乐队，应该可以在日本发展。对Beyond来说去日本是一种很好的挑战，因为日本乐坛，市场是和技术是非常好的。\n92年，Beyond前往日本发展，推出了《继续革命》唱片，在旋律和编曲上也有了更多的新元素。这张唱片的销量不如前一张《犹豫》，但却备受业界和歌迷的好评。新唱片《乐与怒》里家驹野心更大，与更多的日本音乐人合作编曲，主打歌《海阔天空》用了一线交响乐团进行编曲。不但同时推出了日语版，还安排Beyond上更多节目进行宣传，接受更多的杂志和媒体访问。从各种角度看，六月推出的《乐与怒》，都会创下Beyond的新高峰。\n人员变动\n世荣与家驹在琴行认识，当时世荣的band因为大家升学就解散，有的去其它学校，有的出国，只剩一个吉他手owen（关宝璇）和他。所以就需要找一个bass手，让老板介绍弹bass的人，慕名的bass手（李荣潮)同时带了他的朋友家驹给世荣认识，当时家驹应是一个制衣厂上班的采购布料的采购员。家驹好健谈，二人有一见如故的感觉。和世荣的吉他手不停的研究吉他。邓炜谦在录音室结识弹吉他的四眼仔家驹，当时家驹的工作是送信员，纯音乐大厦也部分来自他这份工作。\n1982.12月beyond正式成立，初代 beyond基本是邓炜谦引领他们（家境优渥点，听歌风格多），做原创也是邓的提议，之前大家主玩外国音乐。83年参加山叶吉他大赛，取名beyond最初也不是取超越的意思，更像是『以外』,beyond rock and roll。他们玩的算是摇滚主流之外的音乐，那时几个年轻人尚不开口闭口谈超越摇滚，但这个名字，也可以有多种层面的解释，大家都同意。家驹看到吉他杂志的一个比赛，只限港区参加，奖品为数千元的琴行礼券，还有机会和其他乐手一起灌录一张杂锦大碟，大家决定参加。\nBeyond第一场演唱会是83.6.11号，家驹生日后一天，也是这场演唱会导致两名成员跑路。当时只写过 5首歌，但大家都希望乐队更上一层楼，毕竟得了冠军，他们认为接下来马上要做的工作是扩大歌迷人数，所以在湾仔区艺术中心的寿臣剧院搞了一场演出，剧院是一个不到200观众的小场地，当天观众只有20、30 人，大部分都是自己的朋友。入场观众不足已是一个打击，开场前大家都有些紧张，除了世荣，另三个为了壮胆，都喝了酒才上台。结果家驹首先在又弹又跳的时候摔跤在台上，家驹自己都醉到摔倒傻笑不记得，另两位在酒气冲天的表现简直也是一塌糊涂，劲band 四斗士还小小还原了此事。\n本来有签约一家《音乐一周》杂志，演唱会后与他们立即解约。在83年底，李荣潮(出国上学，其父亲本也不喜欢他玩音乐)和邓炜谦（演唱会事故+风格上更喜欢古典慢摇理念差异）离队，导致9 月 Beyond 拍&lt;香港合辑&gt;照片–山叶吉他大赛副产物时都找不到二位，为了维持阵容，家驹就拉家强入镜，而后家强就真的取代阿潮做 bass 手。83.10 月再拉上世荣原来的吉他手owen，凑成二代阵容。无奈owen是社恐，没出去过公开演出只喜欢在band房玩，在 84 年离队。陈时安加入，成为第三代吉他手，陈时安英文功底深厚，在队期间乐队创作多首英文曲，85.4月举办首个演唱会前因离港升学而离队，Paul 作为世荣的朋友简演唱会海报免费设计，被拉入临时顶替，这就凑成了稳定的核心阵容。\n\nPaul 加入 Beyond 时，当时也是同时玩两队 band 的，但他那队中有两位经常吵架，本身就没钱，在band 房本来就争取时间玩，可一半时间用来吵架，算了\nOwen 离队后，84.12.1日就出现在徐小凤的专辑上，当起了一名职业混音师，找到了自己合适的职业，那时还很年轻呢\n\n为何四人走在一起夹Band\n驹：不知道原因，相信是缘分。性格合得来最重要，大家要无条件风险，肯牺牲，全心全意为夹Band而夹Band，不要盘算乐队能为自己带来什么利益。其实大家未夹Band前都各自有自己的乐队，那时兴一人夹几队Band，加强和我和太极的Joey，Gary，Ricky组成Laser Band，平日好少练歌，有人出钱请我们才练。\n当时在Mark I Studio练歌，练得密，收钱少。唱叁十首歌只几千元，交租都未够。Paul那队Stone更惨，帮市政局的欢乐篷车表演，最初收四百元，後来有人压价，收叁百五十元，最後更离谱，说「宾佬」只收叁百，不干就「宾佬」上。\nPaul最迟，八五年才加入。当时并不知道Paul会弹结他，只知道他长头发，喜欢听歌。他帮我们做演唱会海报，演出前其中一个成员「陈时安」突然决定去外国读书，彷徨之际，无意中知道Paul会弹结他，於是找他夹一下，一夹即合。\n\n「宾佬」：菲律宾人\n除了世荣不抽烟，另外三个都爱抽烟，但世荣酒量最好。\n\n弹 Band 最重要的是互相 Match 到对方的口味和感觉，不同时期成员对作品也有不同影响。owen是一个比较喜欢 Wishbone Ash此类比较传统的技术派音乐，如《旧日的足迹》时期的作品；陈时安则是位 heavy metal 的吉他手，于是他们创作了《永远等待》、《myth》等；而 Paul 格调较重 Purple 味，所以写了《再见理想》、《飞跃苦海》、《the other door》这类作品，Paul 对音乐的 Feel 最好，所以大家都很爽。\n\n84 年《myth》这首参赛时，把 Paul 和刘志远都折服了，埋下了伏笔。而 84 年基本都无影像留下，只有录音，所以没有陈时安当时的合影。\n\n最后一场演唱会\n1993年5月，Beyond在马来西亚开了一场不插电演唱会。天气已经很热，在没有冷气的场馆，他们十分投入地为上万歌迷演唱。没有人知道，这会是黄家驹时代Beyond的最后一场。\n唱到最后一首《海阔天空》时，家驹向观众介绍他的队友们：\n\n我们的吉他手——阿Paul。\n我们的低音吉他手——黄家强，我弟弟。\n我们的鼓手阿荣——叶世荣。\n我叫做黄家驹，明年我们会在这里开一个更加大型更加精彩的演唱会，1994年后见！\n\n黄伯失约了，大家意难平，但另一面如香港电台一则宣传视频里讲的：家驹，永远年轻。\n解读天才一词\n天才就是天上来的灵魂，是带着使命来的，他只是来办他一件事情，办完他就要回去。天才经常伴随着的条件或结果就是他活不长久，他无师自通，很快就要发挥他的才能，有很多非常特殊的才能，你哪里学学不到，然后很快就没有了。\n从这个角度来说，家驹是一个天才，在最光辉灿烂的时候把生命一下子玩到尽头，达成永恒，永远年轻。\n家驹和阿Paul的吉他对比\n两人的吉他风格不一样，各有优点，前音乐经纪人陈健添说如果硬要比较的话，家驹稍微高一点，因为阿Paul弹的比较正路，而家驹很喜欢搞创新，经常玩一些奇怪的音符和旋律，例如阿拉伯条舞女郎就是家驹所写。\n三子 vs 四子\n经常有谈及，三子音乐性更高级了。但从笔者的角度看，三子可以是很好的乐手，音乐性不降是有能力做到的，他们实际上在四子时代也是乐手的定位，做得很开心，当时的采访/上各类活动家驹回答为主，其余三人都很轻松，笑容满面。\n家驹是天才，他对世界，对衣着，潮流等有自己的理解和品味，也非常自信。一些事情不是自然的，你就做不到杰出。三子撑的很辛苦，的确撑不起一个 Band 的创作走向和市场化发展，无法产生更广泛的群体产生共鸣连接的创作，应了家驹说的吃力不讨好。\n\n如家驹所讲：譬如听到一些社会性的东西, 我的耳朵会慢慢走了过去,有些人可能没有感觉的嘛, 不是很刻意地做一样东西, 很辛苦的如果你太刻意做一样东西出来, 你会吃力不讨好。\n\n部分创作背景\n再见理想专辑\n\n\n早期art rock（亦称前卫摇滚）形式的歌很少人支持，乐队成员的离离合合让其落寞。在4人组合定型之前，很有才华相处不错的的陈时安的离队，给了家驹不少的触动。在83-84之间乐队虽然获得过吉他比赛的冠军，但早期属于在苦练技术的阶段。在陈时安（84年初到85年4月）加入的这段周期里，乐队的创作算是进入了爆发期，陈时安的英文功底非常好，经常创作英文歌词。如填写Myth和修改这首long way without friends，乐队在这一阶段也推出了最早的广东歌《永远等待》，大家都有参与歌词创作，作曲和编曲则由家驹和陈时安一起完成。\n\n\nLong是后朋克+前卫摇滚，使用了滑棒技巧。Myth是D小调+空弦，做出这种特别的和弦感觉。属于典型的前卫摇滚，乐曲结构复杂，戏剧性很强，风格轻柔舒缓，古典肃穆。《永远等待》前卫摇滚份额则小得多，以硬摇滚为主，带有后朋克色彩。\n\n\n\n在陈时安未离队阿Paul未顶替这段时期Beyond演出不多，忙于创作和练习，但创作无论从数量上还是质量上都有迅猛提升。\n\n\n\n《再见理想》做的像《soldier of furtune》，想构造出很惨很幽怨的效果，也表达出了Beyond当时的一些心态，离他们想玩的blues很远很远，默默着望着我的孤影这句是梁翘柏写的，大家当时在band房你一句我一句凑出歌词，也成为后日Beyond合唱歌的典范，合唱版反应不俗。对歌迷说你们放心我们会永远坚持我们的理想，写了唱完后几晚都睡不着觉的歌(可能是现场营造气氛)\n\n\n《谁是勇敢》是世荣填词，用中世纪的蜡烛，教堂这种景象去带入想象创作的，有反宗教的主题味道。\n\n\n《the other door》背景：一个人不择手段达到自己的理想，动用邪恶的力量。开头的门声，形容说是世荣家的厕所门，也可能就是二楼后座的地方。是拍子迁就solo的一种创作，很怪，但好听。\n\n\n《飞跃苦海》开头【笑声+哇xx】的声音，倒放出来是一句粤语骂人的话。\n\n\n永远等待专辑\n\n\n《Water Boy》：灵感来自叫water boy的英国乐队，里面的口琴是家驹演奏的，因为歌词没出现歌名，就直接安排远仔仔歌的开端录上water boy两个字。主题是讲部分年轻人理想飘忽不定，而对现实又不肯接受。歌词概念来自于白先勇的一本小说，题目叫做&lt;寂寞十七岁&gt;。\n\n\n随着《永远等待》混音版在disco成为必打热歌，电台也爱是推荐Beyond的第一首上榜歌曲《昔日舞曲》。《昔日舞曲》的背后故事是备着吉他路过湾仔一天桥底，看到很多无家可归老年人，被一位饮过酒的老年人叫住讲了一个多小时往事，老人家年轻时也风光过，但由于不务正业，结果家财散尽，无依无靠，根据此老人家的事迹写的，描写流浪老汉在晚年的心态。昔日舞曲虽电台排名不高（最高位置连前五名都未能打进），但播放率方面却维持了一段较长的时间。这首歌的solo在打鼓世荣的建议下做了节奏的切分，所以大家看到这般变节奏跳跃感的样子，不同音乐认知的碰撞。\n\n\n《金属狂人》的前奏世荣提议用古典乐章去做，造出很凄惨很痛苦的感受，配合受尽社会压力年轻人的主题，用一个强烈的方式发泄自己的内心。鼓的方面也很新鲜，像rockabilly（山地摇滚）风格的形式演绎\n\n\n《灰色的心》讲述一个生活在刻板社会的人，利用幻想曲逃避现实，是当时那张碟中唯一用键盘乐器的歌，因加强的参与在贝斯上花了很多心思以突出每个段落。\n\n\n亚拉伯跳舞女郎专辑\n他们听歌很宽阔，家驹很中意民族色彩的音乐，就尝试将中东的曲式放在广东流行曲上。\n\n\n《无声的告别》，是写给要离队的刘志远\n\n\n《追忆》是一个虚构的故事背景，抽烟追忆逝去的女友。\n\n\n现代舞台专辑\n\n\n《旧日的足迹》，写的是家乡在北京的家驹朋友刘宏博回到故乡，又回港后讲的他的感受和他见到的事物。小岛的键盘手孙伟明参与旧日的足迹演奏，那一段经典钢琴引子所带来的，就是那片消失了的旧日故地，也就是这首作品的神韵。对于制作来说，外来乐手参与除了能提供你本身所缺乏的技巧，专长和触角同时可将你的音乐进一步提升。也是Beyond早期作品中第一首最有流行度的作品。\n\n\n《赤红热血》在表达性方面，较为隐晦，因为中国人很难开放地去接受谈论性。\n\n\n《现代舞台》来自刘卓辉的批判性，每一句都像在骂人，批判娱乐圈，人生，政治，这首歌也称为专辑的名字，但这首歌市场反响并不大，但用字有很多沉音，令唱的部分较难发挥，相较而言Paul填的词更容易发力和记忆，对发生的束缚令家驹有所不满，但也坦然大地实在精彩，他们自己没刘那种笔力。\n\n\n《大地》讲的是台湾允许老兵回大陆探亲，分隔四十年的感受。到处寻找记忆，但老家已无一个近亲，更何况父亲，所以父亲是一个幻想出来 。儿时的玩伴，也都一个个变成花甲老人。\n\n\n\n最初家驹提议paul唱的时候，他拒绝了，但家驹鼓励他说，你现在在拍电视剧，这样这样大家容易认识我们。当时为了提高乐队知名度，成员们开始涉足影视圈双栖发展，当时大家也是为了让这个团尽快红起来。\n《暴风少年之黑仔强》1987年，贯中主演黑仔强，家驹客串“卷毛”\n\n\n《喜欢你》是家驹在当时女友潘先丽面前弹唱副歌旋律，并顺势填词而来。亮眼的分解和弦是Paul的创作。\n\n北京演唱会\n在北京演唱会前1个月，《大地》斩获十大劲歌金曲。88年是乐团的转折点，开始在流行乐团取得商业成功。\n88年10月15日，北京首都体育馆，这个可以容纳近1.8万人的场馆坐满了人。\n当时看到台下的歌迷都是朋克（风格），也有摇滚，留着长头发的，穿着皮夹克的，这跟他们在北京的观感形成了很大的反差，心想平常你们这些人都躲在哪里？。也发现很多没接触过摇滚乐的，看热闹过来的，一些年纪很大的人，开场时看到他们坐在第一排他们还很担心，因为离音响很近，结果一开始就看到他们全部把耳朵捂着，两只手捂着耳朵这样看演唱会。\n演唱会进行到一半的时候，就有半数观众离席，北京观众那时还无法接受粤语歌曲。大陆首秀并没有掀起太大风浪，崔健珠玉在前，他们的摇滚未必让大家买账。后来他们录制了国语专辑，朝向登陆台湾唱片市场。\n这片他们未揭开市场的土地，在黄家驹去世后又神话了他们。90年代，改革浪潮中的年轻人迫切需要某种精神上的慰藉。那一句“原谅我这一生不羁放纵爱自由”，足以让他们心潮澎湃。\nBEYOND IV\n\n\n《真的爱你》家驹和小美在餐厅定下母爱的主题，并一路延伸到整首歌，因为二人都很感激自己的母亲在音乐路上的默默支持，亲友多认为喜欢音乐的人赚不了大钱，出头机会不多。昂贵的乐器即是一份负担，但母亲们毫无怨言。真的爱你其实是let it be和弦做出改良后产生的模式，也是借用天分的体现。\n\n\n《午夜迷墙》原声流露着浓厚的pink floyd的影子，因为避电影黑色迷墙的嫌，歌名取第一段歌词的最后二字午夜，于是合成了午夜迷墙，里面家驹的滑棒吉他演奏也很不错，电影原声录制主要有家驹和世荣两人负责，家驹肩负所有创作及大部分吉他演奏，世荣负责所有电脑程序的编排。\n\n\n真的见证专辑\n\n\n《岁月无声》创作于88年底，是刘卓辉为麦洁文参加上海巴黎世界歌唱比赛而写，可惜没得奖，冠军为林楚琪所得。以一个中国人在大陆旅游所生的感慨为题，以历尽沧桑的老人姿态来写。\n\n\n《无悔这一生》讲香港人流落异乡的感情和心态，为TVB台庆剧所做。\n\n\n《明日世界》原版是林楚麒89年收录的&lt;怨你没留下&gt;，家驹作曲家强填词，由于歌词以女性为第一视角，因此阿Paul只好将歌词重新改写，让大家更实在的体验再深一层的Beyond风格。\n\n\n灰色轨迹\n《灰色轨迹》根据天若有情主角填写，电影原声中四首，一首罗大佑的追梦人，另三首均为Beyond做的，或许灰色轨迹是四首歌里流行得最久的一首。\n命运派对\n\n《光辉岁月》就不用说了，最初始创作概念是老兵回乡探亲，后来想想很普通，看新闻看到黑人领袖曼德拉，种族问题的不正确就成了要表达的事情。\n《无泪的疑惑》是刘卓辉第一首为Beyond写的情歌，其实词作者本人并不是很满意，因为觉得没什么特别之处，但意向不到的是，这首歌日后也有很多人提及，作为作者理解下来认为歌名本身已经带有思念家驹的味道。\n《可知道》的曲在5月份早就写好，经理人知道要去新几内亚时，就跟家驹讲要准备给这次探访写首新歌，在电台肯定会取得播放优势。当时时间不够，7月开心鬼上映，9月大碟必须要出，就问家驹认为新唱片里哪首可给新几内亚用，他说那首有点像phil Colins的作品，然后就决定先把音乐部分录好，回来把词填好然后录唱，两三天肯定可以完成。唱片其它歌就先把mixing录好，因此，可知道并非是Beyond的编曲，而是交由监制独自处理。从新几内亚回来后，家驹在两天内完成了歌词，就是现在看到的作品。\n《送给不懂怎去保护环境的人（包括我）》，应商台退出的环保专辑促成的作品，刘卓辉特意加上包括我，以免让人产生不快，专辑名为《绿色自由新一代》，集合当时香港最有名10支乐队。\n\n犹豫专辑\n《谁伴我闯荡》也是体现一种年轻人集体的情绪，对于理想的追寻和失落，孤立无援世界里实现理想的困难与无奈，于是容易引起共鸣，但不得不说，吉他独奏非常出色。\n继续革命\n\n《长城》是第一首日本制造的中文主打歌，找来喜多郎参与编曲，感觉很华丽，demo送来的时候，伴奏已经录好，上面写着长城二字，难免会让人想起中国的过去，但刘卓辉想要有别于一般歌颂长城的歌曲，不可流连过去的辉煌，可以说更多是刘卓辉的笔力和意向。\n《农民》歌词灵感来自两套老电影红高粱，黄土地，曲是文武英杰宣言的慢拍版，编曲不一样了。\n《厌倦寂寞》，《温暖的家乡》，《遥望》都是反映他们在日本的生活状态，都是他们自己的感受，内容都是关于想念。阿Paul比较直白，就是想家。家驹用想歌迷，想情人来表达。\n《可否冲破》概念是因为他们那时踏入而立二年，是一个新的开始，很多想法都不同了，应该更有远见点，所以世荣就写了这份歌词\n《快乐王国》是因为卡通化的音乐，讲的童年的梦想和嬉戏的情形，人成熟之后，可缅怀童年欢乐的时光，这就是歌表达的内容。\n\n乐与怒\n\n《命运是你家》，是九龙皇帝，曾灶财，整天在天桥底下画字。《wish you were here》是其曲调模仿源头。\n《情人》是刘卓辉与Beyond四子时期合作的最后一首歌曲，93年创作，原名是大陆情人，也许是家驹知道他在内地有女朋友，跨越中港两地的感情关系。\n\n海阔天空\n《Piano Song》是Beyond第一次真正的弦乐团为歌曲配乐，而不是香港惯用的电子乐器模拟效果，后来证明，歌曲由此而来的感染力超过了人们的想象。最早由家驹自弹自唱的demo已丢失，负责录音的是有古典音乐背景的韩裔日籍音乐制作人梁邦彦，他请来30多位管弦乐手组成的桑野圣乐团到录音室。原本梁邦彦只负责创作钢琴部分，后来进一步完成了开场和间奏的钢琴演奏，并和乐队一致商定用弦乐增加节奏感和力量感。\n\n在抖音上听到一个家驹在不插电节目上唱 海阔天空的片段，第二重复段唱到谁人都xx，不知道是忘词还是情绪，突然用哼唱替代，阿Paul都吃惊。下面的点评很特别：这首歌家驹可能还没我们熟悉，毕竟他才唱了几个月，我们唱了三十年。\n\n从无人识到时代绝唱\n93年5月，海阔天空最开始在电台播放时候并不如Amani，光辉岁月等反响好，电台排行榜成绩普通，听众一开始并没有什么特别的反应，因为仅仅是乐队10周年的心路写照，讲述个人理想，是一首普通的Beyond歌，专辑《乐与怒》在杂志评分也只有三星半，媒体访问也几乎不提这首歌。没有那几首有故事性[1]。\n\n香港电台的DJ梁兆辉回忆说：「因为那首歌慢热，所以播了一阵就停了。」\n5分24秒的歌曲对那时的电台来说太长了。即使这首歌在送到电台时被唱片公司剪成了4分钟的版本，仍然无法瞬间抓住听众的耳朵。\n同一时期，排行榜上热播的是草蜢的《世界会变得很美》，黎明的《夏日烧着了》，张学友的《只想一生跟你走》和刘德华的《该走的时候》。《乐与怒》在推出仅三周后就被挤出销量榜前十。\n\n专辑的第一主打，其实是《爸爸妈妈》– 中英谈判启发的摇滚歌曲，首次加插粤语rap，而并非《海阔天空》。\n《乐与怒》跌出销量榜前十之际，Beyond全体再度前往日本，宣传即将推出的日文版迷你专辑《This is Love 1》。直至不幸意外出现，大家才推崇这首歌到另外一个世界，（这首歌）才得到更大的回响\n首批出货两万余张之后几乎没有唱片店要求追加，但在黄家驹去世三到四个月内，专辑销量一下冲到了30万张。「共鸣、回忆，都在这首歌里」\n特别纪念集92~93\n《为了你为了我》刘卓辉填词原不是为Beyond写的，是给新人蔡兴麟，由Beyond第一代唱片监制王纪华制作，乐器演奏也无Beyond参与，后来又是给家驹重唱才变得为人熟知。要是早知道家驹会唱，刘就不会用这么情歌的歌名，因为并不贴近Beyond的风格。\n陨落\n\n\n上面是一则国语采访视频（可窗口弹出播放），家驹讲他在富士山学日本话，所以觉得很辛苦，学日本话就花了很多时间，所以觉得每天都很累，因为嘴巴很累，讲话真的很累，还要做广东专辑，所以工作分量比之前多了很多，很累很想睡觉（疲れる），也是他在日本经常讲的一句话。音频中语气满是疲惫，没有精神。每天满满的行程，还要熬夜录节目，如果不那么累，那天录节目可能就敏捷注意好自身安全，远离那个吞噬生命的陷阱，避免悲剧的发生了。\n最后的合照\n1993年6月23日，Beyond四子前往富士电视台录制游戏节目，为新唱片做宣传。中午，他们在一家日本杂志接受访问，摄影师给他们拍下了杂志的配图照片。接受完访问，Beyond四子启程前往富士电视台。\n夜晚，节目的录制过程出现意外，家驹不慎跌落舞台……随后昏迷，再也未能苏醒。日本摄影师无意拍下的这套宣传照，则成为了Beyond四子最后的合照。\n\n做个纪念\n吉他照+昔日舞曲手稿\n\n23年清明假期去通利琴行拍的，当然早有很多人拍过\n\n\n高中时的作文原稿\n\n结语\n其实吧，Beyond 四子也有偶像，创作过程中也刻意模仿很多外国乐队的作品。外国有很多极具引领性和风格的rock n roll作品，Beyond对大家更为亲近，核心在于其优异的中文化创作和强大的书同文文化圈。\n\nRock N Roll原始意义应该是黑人土著的”做爱“，格式上正好能跟其脱胎的rhythm and blues对仗\n在剑桥词典中 Rock做动词，有move backwards and forwards or from side to side in a regular way的意思，也有强烈震动的意思，Roll的意思就比较直观\n\n关于最终解散\n乐队解散几乎都是宿命，家驹在的时候在其协调领导下，大家能兼容相处。当这一人物缺失时，乐队的发展降速后，加速走向解散只是必然的结果。可能普通人天真的想，觉得都在一块那么多年了，那得多好的哥们感情啊，怎么能闹掰呢。其实吧，这跟合伙开公司也类似，不是哥几个在一起玩时间长了，感情会越来越好的，几个人尤其是几个老爷们在一块，日后越来越放大的是绝对不是你们互相的优点，而是缺点。这一点在各自成家后枕边人参与后，会更加的突出(妯娌关系处得好的不多)，君不见Beatles在小野洋子与列侬结婚的第二年就解散了，列侬和麦克特尼相互指责对方的妻子过分介入乐队的事务。\n好的一面的解释\n家驹在93年6月中旬的一次乐队会议中，也提出等Beyond十周年巡演结束后，打算将乐队的活动暂停一段时间，各自去做自己想做的事情。他也有很多个人化的作品，并不适合Beyond去演奏。据其前私人助理阿龚的忆述提过几次”希望Beyond四个人都有自己的专辑，因为每个人都有自己的想法，可以各出各的作品。“[5]\n坏的一面的还原\n不要听三子说天天说做自己风格得不到市场认可无所谓，其实很在意市场的。到了98和99年左右，三子基本到了强弩之末，风格走向越来越得不到市场认可，老Beyond迷觉得风格很怪，新粉很少但却觉得老粉土。《想你》拿到过金奖，发行过多个版本，但这首歌与Beyond老风格不挨边，和新风格也不像，但Paul对这首歌受欢迎很骄傲。当时签约的公司滚石也没什么资源给他们，资源主要集中在任贤齐等台湾歌手上，续约价钱也不好。\n环球的陈少宝一直很喜欢Beyond，分开跟他们谈，先重金投资了Paul，几张个人大碟很有话题性，那几年Paul很享受香港摇滚话事人的身份，脾气也比较大，单飞基本都只唱自己歌，陈少宝觉得和Paul沟通的不好，也开始扶持家强。家强有一些才华，但是不逼自己创作，不怎么太往前冲的人。你会发现他在94,95逼自己的时候和长空创作很赶的时候，水准还挺高，但平常就懒洋洋的，这样特质Paul看不上。\n家强单飞的碟风格不是很新，毕加索的马这张前面一些歌制作很完整，后面明显有些着急，但后面有些歌很有意思。世荣那几年刚开始坚持自己创作，产量很低水准也一般，后面也逐步声势浩大，拉了一帮北京老炮站台，那时音乐市场已经开始向内地转移，二黄对世荣打着Beyond名义演出心有不满，其实世荣签约的经纪公司都不大，也是手停口停，但唱功练出来了。所以03~04年大家看到了非常精彩的演唱会，三子乐器技术都在，创作能力得到了锻炼，唱功都很出色。那会儿大家也信心满满。\n之后《长空》问世，拿了金像奖音乐奖，家强很骄傲，但Paul参与不多，世荣也没参加颁奖礼去日本开歌迷会了。再之后解散，因为《故事》一歌发生了矛盾。家强觉得应三子一起，因为有点像再见理想之类的乐队歌，Paul说你做《长空》自己全搞定了我都没说啥，我写了你怎么这么多话。后来这首歌就没发表，那时Paul就越来越不爽了，后来在巡演途中发生了争吵，当时家强不希望解散，世荣可能倾向于解散，那阵子他在内地发展不错，也有很多乐手要养。\n08年搞纪念演唱会，三子最后登场，Paul依然很不爽，家强觉得提出单飞的是你，提出解散的是你，我忙前忙后搞活动，你啥也没干就在那不爽。二黄虽有短暂合体演唱会，但又因《故事》吵起来，谭校长当过和事佬都没好使。\n再之后借助微博的平台，事情越演越烈。Paul因我是歌手又火了，在13年纪念年份准备三子重组开演唱会，但当时世荣不愿意，因为他有其它演出也有团队要养，不想逢三就停下来纪念，Paul情绪不高当时也没工作安排，就有一搭没一搭的跟粉丝透露各种事，身边有一批脑残粉就跑到家强微博下乱骂，那时家强很生气，就把所有事都公开了，包括不想养世荣那句，世荣只能假装不在意不是真的。家强后来的态度就是你们随便以Beyond的名义搞纪念都可以，我不参与，跟他无关了，他纪念他自己的。基本就是当前的三子状态了，也看到Beyond重聚会邀请刘志远，家强的确不参加了。\n应了乐队处久了，放大的是缺点不是优点的宿命结局，何况是少了强力灵魂人物的情况下。\n8090的影音高峰\n唯一没有亏待80,90的是那个时代的精品电影和音乐，尤其以香港为华语圈的代表，留存了很多回忆。时代使然，娱乐菜单丰盛，再难有传唱度那么高的音乐作品出现了。\n\n用美好的歌词收尾\n\n从6.16标题落笔到8.2真正发出，都错过了6月天，写下心中的纪念就好！\n\n让海天为我聚能量，去开天辟地，为我理想去闯。看碧波高壮，又看碧空广阔浩气扬，既是男儿当自强。这就是那个昂扬的时代。\n引用\n1.BBC中文 《海阔天空》超越时代的黄家驹绝唱 ↩2.网易 BEYOND成员更替全纪录：流水的吉他手，铁打的灵魂 ↩3.懂球帝 当Beyond失去家驹 ↩4.Beyond帝国 一段当红冷观自身的电台采访 ↩5.知乎 《乐与怒：Beyond传》节选 ↩","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["音乐"]},{"title":"小动物养成模式","url":"/%E5%B0%8F%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E5%85%BB%E6%88%90%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F.html","content":"\n\n整理的一家之言内容会有一丝压抑意味, 也穿插了其它内容（国民公子、文明冲突），但认识它是为了更豁达，脱离浑噩。延展段的内容做了很多表述修正，改变其原偏消极的看似超脱的口吻。配个风和日丽的图吧\n\n文明的冲突\n地球就是一个个农场集合，搞养殖就是做生态，更符合生态搞养殖就是制度。生态结构首先取决于土地结构，小动物形态结构。\n\n作为农场小动物们，常进行农场间闲话对比，这种对比一半有意义，一半没意义。有意义的一半叫经济和科技，没意义的一半叫体制。\n\n种花家农场\n每个农场的小动物天然结构并不一样，种花农场小动物基本都是土著，经过几千年融合趋同，动物民族具有相对的单纯性。这种单纯性不仅是因为地缘封闭因素，更是因为东方传统文化的强大内核。没有科技外挂出现之前，这个内核就是陆地最强，多少外族入侵不得不变成一家人。文化内核也堪称最高宗教，佛道讲抽象思维，特点是包容性，儒学入世实践，科技正冲击其局限性。正所谓一个人拥有祖先记忆，在东方的这片土地，你讲出的每句话，每个词及你背后的思想，都来自于儒释道，已深入你我骨髓，只是大家未仔细体会而已。\n\n自秦以来，皆行秦制，搞法家“一也”，将小动物整齐划一，2000年来形成的种花家农场的土地性格–同化，或者叫同一性，决定了这块土地生长出的制度也是同一性的，农场主只能适应土地搞制度，叫做顺天应人。种花家自然长出圈养模式，玩分配，大家刨食集中起来给老大，再给下面小动物分东西，\n\n海盗农场\n海盗农场，小动物种类繁多，花色不一，花色内部还分内部特色，每个花色物种都有自身动物民族的特点，都不是土著，都是别的农场后组合的，最后模式必然是多元性。海盗农场都是乘船出海抢东西，属于放养模式，放养的模式就是玩自由抢，结果必然是贫富分化越来越大。\n\n二者对照\n共和和合众俩字，本质意思也不同（墨西哥和美国是现在仅存的国名中叫合众的两个国家）。\n种花农场更像是农场，海盗农场更像是股份合伙公司。前者的核心是权力，后者的核心是资本。\n农场主只是暂时之王，长周期看还是思想融合之战，科技发展在朝着释放人性罪恶的角度去，科技是冰冷的，看最终是那种文明占据主导（主观上保护地球和维护世界和平）。佛道两家中，还是道家更尊重现世大自然规律，佛家太空，且前世因果讲的太多。道包含因果，但因果不包含道，春播秋收是因果，东升西落是规律。\n亨廷顿的《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》\n冷战后看待世界格局的决定因素在几大文明中：\n\n中华文明\n印度文明\n伊斯兰文明\n西方文明\n东正教文明\n非洲文明（存疑）。\n\n冷战后，冲突的根本根源不再是意识形态，而是文化方面的差异。\n\n李光耀在94年说：中国参与世界地位重组的规模，使得世界必须在30~40年时间内找到一种新的平衡，假装中国不过是另一个大的参与者是不可能的，它是人类历史上最大的参与者。\n\n\n\n文明间有三分之二到四分之三是穆斯林和非穆斯林之间的战争，穆斯林的边界是血腥的，其内部也是如此。\n\n\n俄罗斯几百年来都没搞清楚自己是不是西方国家，它没有或很少经历界定西方文明的历史现象：罗马天主教，封建主义，文艺复兴，宗教改革，海外扩张和殖民化，启蒙运动及民族国家出现。如果俄罗斯称为西方国家，东正教文明将不复存在。\n\n\n西方文明的价值在于其是独特的，而不是普世的。常忘记这一事实，非西方人眼中它们曾或一直是帝国主义。\n\n\n每个文明都把自己视作世界的中心，把自己当做人类历史主要的戏剧性场面来撰写，与其他文明相比，西方可能更是如此。\n强大的社会是普世的，弱小的社会是狭隘的。经济繁荣是道德优越的证明。\n农场解构\n剩余价值汲取\n人类社会持续发展的一个重要原因是集中剩余价值发展生产力，绝大多数人必须将自己的剩余价值贡献出去。以前最主要的集中手段是税收，一部分用于供养社会组织者，一部分用于维持国家运作，剩下的用于提高社会生产力(去试错新发明，新技术)。\n当前世界主要经济体的直接税+间接税大概在35%左右，剩余的钱想变成自己的得经历重重考验。社会组织者要么会给空头支票，比如房贷一次性征你30年的税，要么包括各种工具包括但不限于通胀，股市，p2p，空气币，各种智商税消费陷阱等方式消耗掉你的劳动成果。为了游戏可以玩下去，会有一小撮人可实现财富增值，然后告诉绝大部分人，只要你努力，也可以像他们一样，从而激发你的积极性，不然都躺平不创造价值如何收割。（在拿捏人习惯的管理者/大神面前，普通人就是妥妥的降维打击，高人在知道普通人结局的时候依然刻意煽风点火，挑起普通人的情绪，组局唱戏收割韭菜，局越大被割的人越多。最为猎人，其早就一直在估摸着这篇森林，到底有多少可以捕捉的动物，体积有多大，要挖多大的坑）\n\n君不见每代人都比上代人生活水平好，但仍然忙累么。当消费需求饱和了，就要搞创新，哄你花钱。如手机换个新花样，新能源车替换燃油车，人工智能产品。现在很多技术还没法进入民生领域，当下共享经济无关科技，是给科技创新争取时间，大类资产以租代买，解决消费问题，可长久不了，因为一将功成万骨枯，一个模式兴起会打垮一个行业，大幅降低了行业利润。\n\n无形的手\n国富论奠定资本主义玩法的基础，核心是分工产生效率，辅以释放小动物的趋利本能（无形的手）。但在小动物的抢夺中，会周期性的爆发分配危机。所以要引入有形的手进行梳理。\n\n我们看看产能过剩+资本盲目逐利是如何导致经济萧条的\n\n5人星球，ABCDE每人每日生产2单位共计10单位粮食，每人每天消耗1单位，那么星球每日富余5单位。A一算，粮食屯久了会变质，岂不很浪费，它观察到有时某人生产工具坏了要修，会停止当日生产粮食，也有人偶尔休息一天，削个笛子吹一下调节身心，也不生产。A发现商机，自己停止生产2单位粮食改为生产2单位木制品，可能是2笛子1农具，1板凳，一弓箭什么的。理论上每一单位木制品换一单位粮食，于是5人星球日剩余3单位粮食（8-5），此外生产2单位木制品。由于木制品存放时间更久，拉长周期，5人星球囤积的粮食与之前无多大差别，又多出许多乐器工具，实现了这个星球整体财富的增长。\n但问题来了，制作器具的A并不能完全知悉另外4人的真实需求，会出现一天生产的擀面杖换不到哪怕1单位粮食，于是这一天A必须消耗自己之前交换囤积的粮食，等于亏本。为了减少风险，或用高利润平抑风险满足最大期望，A开始涨价。因为他知道另外4人多生产的富余粮食对他们来说价值不大，于是定价1单位木制品换2单位粮食。那么当天产品若交换完，可换到4单位粮食，自己可富余3单位，其余4人看做一个整体来话，相当于当日没富余，都被A占据了。总结一句话，追逐利润的市场交易意味着必然导致交易一方占有的社会整体财富百分比相对增加。\n与分工之前比，A日常囤积的粮食增加了，由于发现了利润，A业务开始拓展，为防止出现当日做出笛子卖不出去的局面，A甚至引入预定制，为了便于交易，还允许赊账，且开始生产金属制品。由于金属制品消耗量更少，为了防风险定价更高，1单位金属制品可换4单位粮食。由于还是A一人生产，他还是一天只能生产2单位木制品/金属制品。由于带来了金属制品，另外4人生产效率也提高了，斧头镰刀伐木收割更快，每天粮食提高到了4单位，日富余12单位（16-4），需求从此改变。斧头镰刀金属制品需求提高了，A开始扩大生产和涨价，1金属制品要换6单位粮食（能把当日结余粮食换完）。于是A日囤积11单位粮食，其余4人看做整体的话，日绝对财富增加（有金属制品了），相对财富不变或可能减少（依旧是消费完后结余）\n技术进步带来效率，效率改变社会财富分配结构，引发新需求，新需求引导下的行业得到超额分配（利润），风口行业就是这样\n\n暴利的直观体现就是原本占社会财富1/5的A，现在占有星球3/4的财富（不算消耗单日看，12单位粮食其独得，剩余4人除去自己生存开销没有剩余），且绝对财富增加6倍（2-&gt;12）\n\n除了涨价，A还要扩大生产，由于成功引导了市场消费习惯，金属成了日用品，稳赚（如食品包装改用罐头，另外4人每天都要消耗金属罐头），A一合计，如果4单位粮食雇佣一个人帮自己生产金属，那么2人一天就可以生产4单位金属制品，可换24单位粮食，扣除工资，自己日得20粮食。B看这方案刻意，自己日生产4粮食和得4工资没区别，可接受（当觉得没区别不接受时，A可以提升一点工资/使用手段打压其余4人生活水准，诱惑促成有人能接受此收入）。然而人算不如天算，B加入后，星球日生产粮食变成12单位，只剩9单位可供交易。A发现生产4单位金属制品只卖出1单位，可能还是卖给了B（甚至抵上工资和欠条买的），于是A就解雇B，缩小生产规模，B想回去生产粮食发现地荒废了，在过往的消费洗脑下又欠下一屁股债，余粮很快消耗光，于是跳楼了（生产能力消失）。盲目扩大生产又没准确计算供应和需求变化，星球遭遇了经济萧条，盲目逐利带来供需失衡和经济危机。5人星球供需关系很容易看出来，但几十亿人口商品千万行业生态复杂的地球，资本家恐怕就算不出来了。\n5人星球的故事告诉我们，人类整体财富就是一张饼，经济问题归根结底就是交易和契约的问题。\n市场需求引导行业利润，逐利引导集中生产，集中生产供应（垄断）一方的行业暴利。在工业化的自由竞争中，这种问题循环往复。\n地盘经济殖民\n经济增长也伴随着价值汲取，左手吸劳动价值，右手吸资源价值，合起来就是劳动+资源=财富。在科技发展停滞不前时，经济增长会达到一个顶峰，抢地盘就会成为一个必然。历史上的日不落农场当时就大干这种事。当前侵略已经是过时做法，得搭上一票人去搞管理，经济殖民是更好的选择，有些农场主觉得他们进来挺好的，有钱有方法，使自家小动物生产能力提高，自己也受益。这个模式就是工业化转移，有些农场主傻乎乎，工业化水平毛都没学到，财富倒是被吸干了，满地鸡毛和污染，有些农场主比较机灵，既然财富必然要被吸，自家小动物学习能力强，慢慢工业化水平就练出来了。自力更生，自己的盘面自己吸，这世界满是经济殖民地。\n改变消费习惯，改变市场需求，一靠枪炮，二靠广告，铺天盖地的广告是消费主义世代最显著的特征。\n了解环境与互动\n小动物从生到死依赖于各个农场，解构农场对人生大有帮助。但大量信息是站在小动物趋利的角度写出来的，比如怎么理财，怎么提高情商。20%的信息是站在农场主管理的角度写出来的，比如某某政策如何，某某行业运作数据和问题，某某经济学理论如何产生，实际指导管理等等。对于思想开悟帮助有限。\n\n古典文献多数也是站在农场主视角写的，帮助其管理，这种书看起来很高端，但对小动物帮助不大，因为利益角度不同。只有鬼谷子是跳出来看结构，因为他是纵横家，游走在多重利益集团间搞公关。\n\n小动物要看清农场结构，需忘记自己的坐标，跳到空中看。任何结构都由相互依存的主体构成，主体间的利益流动形成了结构，看两样东西。\n小动物的价值（有啥）\n繁衍能力\n小动物第一项价值就是繁衍能力，繁衍是动物社会存续的第一因素。农场主专家团站在运营角度（自身利益存续与迭代发展），宏观上每天研究动物人口结构，毕竟是地球上目前看来最有劳动价值群体。强人工智能的进展缓慢和细分技术知识爆炸式扩展，使得社会需要高度协作，人力需要高度层次化和多样性，继而需要人口需要保持特定的量。\n劳动能力\n作为灵长类动物，智商比马牛羊高级，个体劳动力会随着工具生态环境而无限放大（复杂工具+分工协作），故作为小动物，最重要就是经营好自己的工具使用能力。\n复杂工具\n在原始时代，灵长小动物没有马牛羊值钱，大航海时代一匹马可以换5个大黑，马耕地比小动物效率高得多，运货物，繁衍能力都更强。小动物价值超过马牛羊得益于工具的发明，也就是科技发展，劳动能力大大提高。马牛羊是不开会拖拉机的。\n科技的发展两大实效作用：提高生产效率和生产能力，增强打架斗殴的能力，对应于民用+军用两大领域。不少发明还是先军用再民用，所以有时说科技发明是罪恶的。\n\n对于农场主来说，在劳动效率没看见变化的情况下，抢地盘是最重要的。抢完了地盘，再研究管理和提高小动物的劳动效率。\n\n所以小动物要想在农场过得比其它动物好，能获取更多利益，首要学习使用各种工具的本领，会用的工具越复杂，会的人越少，就有劳动的稀缺性，会受到农场主和全农场的温暖关怀，优越性伴随着稀缺性而来，小动物活着追求的朴素体感目标也即优越感。\n分工复杂度与稀缺\n你会的工具越复杂，与其它动物分工协作度就越高。动物社会发展到今天，每个小动物都要依赖分工协作释放自己的劳动价值。分工越精细，小动物们的整体生产力就越高，创造的总财富就越多。一个人干所有活来种地，累到吐血也只能种1-2公顷土地，但农业机械+分工+生物科技，10个人能操持的土地就高出个人不知道多少倍。\n占坑稀缺性\n小动物天天面对土地和庄稼，总会有个别动物心理扭曲精神崩溃，要去城里找专门研究小动物精神领域的专家开导开导，小动物高兴了继续种地情绪高涨。种地的越多，心理扭曲就更频繁，研究精神领域的小动物少，就稀缺值钱。故研究分工协作环节中的稀缺性，也非常有价值。\n价值总结\n从农场主宏观视角，绝大多数小动物就上面两个价值：\n\n\n繁衍\n\n\n在社会分工中提供劳动\n\n\n是不是很悲哀？绝大多数小动物都可有可无，被丢掉或被擦除掉，对这个世界没有任何影响，眼睛一闭，这个世界对他根本没有感觉。所以小动物活着，总在讨论动物人生的意义，本质上就是在讨论如何能留下一道痕迹，作为小动物，只有思想才能闪出光芒。\n有没有好逸恶劳不爱思考却获得物质结果的动物呢，有，比如拆迁，这都是运气。精密机器的运转，当然会有小概率事件，这不可简单将小概率事件转述为命运，不思进取靠小概率事件获得物质优越性的动物，从未获得思想的优越性，没有思想结构的优越性，很多捡到死耗子的瞎猫，大概率会因为物质而带来痛苦。\n举个不普通的栗子\n通常暴发户吸毒是情理中的事情，因为他的感受从来无人梳理。成功和毒瘾只是相同快感的不同来源而已。\n思聪当前来看是成功的，显示出一个正常人的状态，大众的追捧有一点积极意义。给你一个亿也许让你家破人亡，给他一个亿，他竟然在好好表现。因为他从未经历过苦难的错误感受，不会傻到认为钱可以给人持久的快感，说真话干实事才可以。哪怕有些话不那么恰当，有些事还有些赔钱。或许这就是那句牛逼的话，难得糊涂，他的清醒就是普通人的糊涂。\n\n王公子早年在英国留学，高中时才知道自己的真实家世，读的专业是大众觉得没什么用的哲学。王健林不仅早预料到自己狂野的商业版图，也预料到儿子将来直面这些成功所带来的无聊。如何将儿子培养成一个简单通透的人是接班的先决条件。王公子永远缺失普通人从0到1的艰辛记忆，怎么才能支持他继续工作呢？\n大多数人从出生起就接受了很多感官垃圾，99%的人都在生活的恐吓下活着，一生必定耗费巨大的精力和勇气去梳理这些垃圾感受，读大量的书才能让自己安静下来，不忘初心。\n\n爱思考的小动物会产生一个焦躁的思想，思想力是有的，心力不够（本质还是思想力不足），心力就是10年磨一剑的耐心的坚守和实践的坚持。\n农场主靠啥榨油小动物\n土地\n世界由不公平构成，平衡木只有不公平才能左右摇摆起来，这就是社会发展，不平才是正常状态。动物性趋利（荀子简化讲人性恶），活着意味这要抢地盘。地球每个农场文化中崇拜的伟大人物，常有共同特点就是抢地盘能力强。人类打败了所有动物，就开始内斗抢地盘。每个地盘都划出了农场主和小动物两个群体，土地是自然之母，每个农场主都会将土地垄断起来，这个控制权利的词叫产权，这个词也很虚，严格意义上讲，小动物不可能拥有一寸土地。海外的永久产权，但极高的税赋打破这一幻象。想拥有土地操控权，必须拥有强大的武力和组织力做为支持，土地是农场主的第一大资源。\n周期收割劳动价值\n小动物劳动力价值超过马牛羊时，农场主从抢马牛羊转向抢小动物。古代农场一个个主管人员都叫牧，原来这些主管都是帮农场主牧养马牛羊，后来就改为牧养小动物，内涵一样。\n繁衍，提高劳动效率。收割。\n社会存在的本质就是分工协作，对社会的管理就是对分工的管理。\n经济的本质就是循环。宏观上的循环就是对小动物的周期收割。微观上的循环，就是农场各种动物分工协作的利益往来。所以宏观上研究的都是大势，是农场间的往来，地盘怎么分，对小动物怎么互相利用利用，都收割收割。微观上研究的都是企业，行业，小动物间的具体分工协作，生产协作和利益交换，都是一些行业政策，法律条文类细的东西。宏观上围绕小动物的求生与发展本能，吃饭看病住所教育（脑子开光），搞周期收割。牧养马牛羊靠鞭子，牧养小动物靠税收和货币。\n金融\n金融即为打破农场的空间障碍，穿越时间获得更大地盘的工具，变收割当下为收割未来。利用金融，贪婪本性得以无限释放。但金融有个确定性问题，理论上可对未来无限收割，但物质财富不可能穿越时空存在，拿未来的财富标的现在，本身就是个幻象，所以金融必定会产生泡沫。\n金融就是一种打破时间的交易的障眼法，一种对当下资源配置的魔术，载体就是货币，一串数字，数字当然可以穿越时间搞周期收割。\n每一滴泡沫都要由小动物买单，可小动物傻傻的崇拜金融，没办法，专业词汇都是障眼法，背后的本质没那么复杂，甚至有些简单。可惜大部分新兴市场工业化都没玩明白，金融货币就更玩不转了，周期被大流氓收割，收割不了就更换农场主。\n资产阶级在哪里\n当前劳资矛盾的中小老板不应该是直接的阶级斗争对象，他们并不是资本家，充其量只是生产活动的组织者。当今资本主义的发展程度，社会学家和哲学家没跟上或者拿了钱故意混淆视听，使得大家认知模糊。当今具体劳动者能接触到的具体资本家，无非市场上一个个经营实体，更多是小资产者，为风投，为利率，为汇率，为劳动法，为超级地租，为直接间接的税收打工而已。有些能完成暂时的积累，很快又会在资本市场中被新的投机机会吸引，又再一次把积累给砸空，而机会呢，往往来自上层的庄家所制造出来的。\n当前因为产权制度的改革，包括资本在内的各种生产要素都飞快的流动起来，能保证old money不流失的个体很少，看似长寿的企业股权也经常流动，几易其手。小资产者也永无休止地被驱使着运动着，又被梦想吸引的部分，大部分也是被迫运动（生产要素在专业交易机构和法律体系逼迫下做着无法停歇的运动，使得经营者也常规短视化）。他们其实才是真正为资本主义打工的一群人，他们被收割的源泉就在于他们造富的梦想或改变世界的理想，只要去挣钱，就要服从一套秩序。而无产阶级反倒像化外之民，不怎么受统治。\n后资本主义时代或新自由主义下，真正的资本家已经退居幕后，不会直接跟劳动者打交道，也不会直接管理哪一个实体企业，通过错综复杂的内部交易关系，从货币到金融，从政策到文化，抱团团结。从具体经济行为来看，越来越不像一个剥削者，而更像一个统治者，维度已经上升到构建一个秩序或构建他们的生态来共同统治世界，而不是再吭哧吭哧的和劳动者去算工资，真正被盘剥的是具体的生产经营组织者，也就是市场中的实体，暂时的小资产者。在后资本主义时代，世界已经变得非常复杂， 真正的资本家坏人看着像好的人，当然他们也是一个个具体的人，第一个按宣传能想到谁，老柳头应该算一个（复杂隐含的关系实控着很多关系老百姓生命生活的行业， 却隐而不见）\n延展：小动物的自由从何而来\n人的自由来自于内外部结构平衡，在内部无限物欲膨胀，外部喧嚣浮躁的信息轰炸下，不是迷失在物质欲望里，就是迷失在思想雍杂里。作为生物个体，无限逐利只会让你失去自由，获取平衡才是自由的本源，要获取自由，要搞清楚四点。\n认识你所依存的世界的运作方法\n多数人仿佛对一切都习惯了，这种任由摆布的生存方式在光景好的时候等待你的是收割和随波逐流，在坏光景的时候等待你的就是丢弃。随波逐流被收割的愤恨和对被丢弃的担心，是人们心中不安的由来。\n这种担心会随着物质丰富而暂时缓解，而不是消失；思想的雍杂更是一种负担，满大街贩卖的焦虑正是如此，不管是对底层刨食者，还是对巨量中产，焦虑摧残着每一个人。无论你站在哪一层物质梯队上，焦虑首要因素来自于不自信，不自信不分来自对自己依存世界的不理解。\n对自己依存世界进行解构，使其更透明起来，你的心也会变得宁静安全起来。请抓住一个逻辑线路，个体是如何在集体中生存的。\n生态生存的阴阳两面\n阳面是分配运作，阴面是精神与道德\n集体规则无外乎一个逻辑：分配。农耕按劳分配，封建时代按血缘和权位分配，政治时代按分工和阶层分配，分配方法越来越细化复杂，这也是所以多数人没有技术去观察所依存世界的原因。\n事务的发展变化必然伴随着漏洞，漏洞就是分配的不合理，任何的政治意识到经济运行，再到阶层的呈现，总会充满分配漏洞（人主管掌控的东西，无论是集体还是个体，都会充满人性上的漏洞），一切不可能100%按照管理者意志运作。农耕时代劳动计价就是漏洞。封建时代家天下意志在于权位社稷，从分封到一统，历代王朝的分配漏洞正是这种人为设计的权威体系而生成，变化就在这种分配漏洞中。外戚制，藩镇割据，诸侯王等。如今是政商时代（政治控局），管理者的意志在于对经济设计，经济反哺政治，如计划经济与市场经济，封闭与开放，对内保护与引入竞争等，这些进化就是对之前漏洞的修补，而又会产生新的漏洞，影响最终生态结构（阶层)。\n站在个体角度，对于进化的观察与对漏洞的分析和把握，决定着个体的生存结构。\n政商时代，信仰分很多个层级，越往下越信仰金钱，信仰自然神，底层刨食未摆脱农耕劳动思想束缚；越往上，越信仰权位，站在物质和权力顶端，难摆脱封建权位思想。中间层是开放的，是一种依附于金钱，权力的对自由的向往。越没有什么，越向往什么。若你能解构看清诸多信仰，也能进一步理解生态。\n找到自我禀赋与信仰，得舍\n达成对自我的解构，也很重要。在这世界你的禀赋是什么，决定最适合活着的方法。每个人都有禀赋的不同（老鼠打洞，狡兔三窟，鹰犬守在主人门外），每个人都需要遵从自己的秉性。你可以信仰金钱，权力或某种条款，但要坚持下去才有力量。多数人的一生都是徘徊的一生，而坚持最好的方法就是朝向你的禀赋。天生是鹰犬，那么就做下去；天生是葛朗台，那么就拜金下去，当然能更豁达一点更好。\n\n多数人的认命就是在信仰的浑浑噩噩左右徘徊中，就这样吧；\n少数人能清楚的认命，原来我就应该怎样啊；\n极少数人能做到的认命，是在观察生态世界后的开悟与豁达。\n\n\n信仰是一种生存力量，看清并解构人们的信仰，会得到更大的力量，金钱与权利只是附带的筹码，信仰才是至上的力量\n\n在自己的禀赋下争取自己想要的，有了对生态结构和自我的解构准备，力争掌握更为复杂的工具或卡位优势分工环节(穷人之所以穷，是因为他是拿时间还钱，获得的是平均社会薪酬，社会薪酬主要和行业阶段有关系)，营造自己的生态位，分流剩余价值流动，收获自己活着的充实。\n在这场活着的游戏中，认知清楚后，仍然比拼的是坚持的力量（当下的社会组织者也是通过一套方法，一步一个脚印孤独又快乐的坚持走向自己的信仰之地）。哪怕你视角宏大与独特，像俯瞰蚂蚁搬家一样，也不要陷入虚无主义（空谈舍弃），人的生命有且只有一次，要挑战，不要磨灭。\n当你把城市建设的繁华喧闹，空虚也会随着繁华而来，此时幸福的本源在于你想得到什么，又能舍弃多少。但没有获取你就不知道该舍弃什么（这也是为什么释迦摩尼能创佛教的原因，它的阶层与曾有的资源，普通的刺激根本诱惑不了他），成就与信仰都离不开舍弃。心无所求方得自由，无所求即为有所求。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"中产滑落与小镇做题家","url":"/%E5%B0%8F%E9%95%87%E5%81%9A%E9%A2%98%E5%AE%B6.html","content":"\n中产的滑落\n挤公交效应\n举个挤公交的例子，车下的你往上挤，意愿非常强烈，车上的人呢，他们才不管你赶时间或有多急的事，几乎都不希望你上去。你对那些毫无同理心的人厌恶至极，可一旦你上去了，马上翻转。\n这种人性丑陋的心理作用机制与现象，无处不在。在较低精英层与中产层中，往往体现在以团体共进退的模式形成一种一荣俱荣，一损俱损的壮观社会现象。最高层精英似乎更加围绕“血统”达成繁荣，巩固与传承。而平民百姓往往以单打独斗的方式进行，效能很低。\n精英阶层最希望社会场景应通过规则制定与掌控，控制通道流量，也不希望关闭这一通道（关闭对谁都不利）。现在挤公交效应非常严重，精英也早就在考虑和安排规则的事情。奶头乐也是安排的一个环节。\n\n至于规则，所有人一视同仁的那叫规则；只约束一帮人不约束另一帮的，那叫剥削。比如要求私德高尚，私德就像螃蟹的钳子一样，是让螃蟹们相互制约和监督的，捕蟹人就在旁边看着，这个阶层的缺德在那个阶层叫能力。\n\n精英有座城堡，中产只是外城\n\n管钱管天下门派最重要，拿到现在就是家庭和圈子。\n\n精英阶层在历史上名头多变，不管你管他们叫什么豪强，士族，门阀，权贵集团，当他们作为一个整体出现的时候，首先是一座城堡，第一功能是防止别人再进来，所以先进来的人会不断增加城墙的高度，避免再进人摊薄自己的特权和福利，不过砌墙的行为会被包装下，使普通人很难分辨。\n今天精英阶层一项杀手锏在于会为子女预留很多止损线，其后代人生是被设置了下限的，上不封顶，这就是这群人开挂的地方，何况精英阶层还会以相互之间彼此关照对方子女的方式强化这种机制，这早已是城堡里的潜规则。与这些招数比起来，那些所谓的增长视野，减少摸索的好处都只能算毛毛雨。\n主流意识形态现在开始鼓吹中产阶级的崛起，但中产本质是精英阶级的随从，是经营分配酬劳体系里的一环，若精英是躲在城堡里，那么中产就是拱卫城堡的一圈外城，依附于城堡，但又优越于外层的乡野，中产作为城堡的外城也有自己的城墙，中产外城墙是学历，而城堡的内城墙是血缘，这是最核心的区别，越上层的人越爱用血缘来区分人，中产阶级的城墙比起城堡要矮的多，防御薄弱，所以时不时就有人可以翻进来，中产与底层间的流通也相对顺畅的多，通过几十年个人奋斗到中产的人，很容易得出个人奋斗能改变阶层的结论，等下一代接着向上时却发现上面的游戏规则完全不一样。\n中产依旧是靠出卖脑力和劳动时间来吃饭，从来没有真正掌握过生产资料，中产这个群体内心非常脆弱和焦虑。人最大的痛苦还不是得不到，而是得到以后再失去，中产一方面受到资产阶级的压制，很难真正的实现阶层跨越，一方面又受到底层劳动者的仇视，一不留神就会阶层滑落，所以他们特别舍得在教育上花钱，妄图向上层靠拢，也特别喜欢买一堆性价比极低的奢侈品，妄图和底层劳动者划清界限。\n\n而真正的富人，反倒不怎么重视应试教育，他们的子女根本不需要参与社会竞争，真正的富人也反倒不太注重穿戴，他们早已无需通过衣着来彰显自己的身份。有产者技能60分晃荡，认知却得是满分。雇佣最聪明的大脑，买别人的时间创造自己的财富。只有普通人才纠结在意标签。\n什么爱情恒久远，一颗永流传；什么人生当有别，一墅见高下；什么你来我培养你的孩子，你不来我培养你孩子的竞争对手。几乎一切的消费主义，鸡娃主义，庞氏骗局等等，无一例外都是针对中产定制的。历史上每逢金融危机来临，受伤最重的往往就是中产，因为他们最害怕自己手里的现金贬值，最喜欢用全部身家外加数倍杠杆买入泡沫资产。\n每一轮金融泡沫的破灭都会让无数中产一夜之间沦为赤贫，然而又有谁会在乎呢，这本就是中产的宿命，这本就是历史的轮回，他们每一次的滑落，都会给底层注入新的活力和高素质人才，崛起则给国家带来新一轮增长和飞跃。这就是培育中产收割中产的过程。穷人没钱可割，富人有办法规避。中产这个词本身就是个不折不扣的伪概念，产就是生产资料，中产的手里有过生产资料吗？\n精英阶层的阶层内差距也非常大，就如跟盖茨和小扎这等超级富豪比一样，0.1%的富豪也跌至底层。他们内部也存在巨大的对权力，资本支配的差异，就像太阳系与银河系一样。\n错误的经验\n绝大部分的中产只是赶上了好时代，凭借自己的职工身份，城镇户口和高考成绩就能享受时代快速增长的红利，既没有富人的认知和资源，也没有穷人的野心，却有不错的生活水准，如何必然会滑落呢？\n因为中产阶级家庭，是对社会运行规律的误解最为严重的人群，他们所有的成果都是特定的产物，比如几十年前国企招工的时候他们正好是城镇户口，刚分完房子就赶上快速的城镇化，房价大涨。工作的时候，中国几乎所有的行业都处于爆炸性增长的阶段，只要不缺胳膊少腿，就算是论资排辈，都能有不错的上升机会，恰恰是这些躺赢的经验，让他们认为这一切都是理所当然的，把这种理所当然传递给子女，让他们乖乖读书老实工作结婚买房熬年头。\n当下的中国社会已发生巨变，房产无脑上涨的时代已结束，子女面临的是空前的竞争和变化，沿袭老路只会更加迷茫。\n教育的差别\n有人讲教育有三个层次：\n\n什么能做、什么不能做，这叫平民教育\n做什么赚钱，做什么不赚钱，这叫精英教育\n什么能抢，什么不能抢，这叫贵族教育\n\n文化也有两种，精英文化和洗脑文化。在看不到角落有一群更聪明的人控制着我们，控制的工具不再是旧有的刀枪，是文化，是制度，是风俗，是习惯。\n草根/中产的孩子在做好自己方面投入过多，学习工作非常努力、能力优秀，但在如何与别人建立连接方面重视不够，不知如何在人群中升级，最后沦为工具。没有前人搭桥，认知都需要一个人用青春教训去积累，最宝贵的时间流逝了，机会也随之减少。\n穷人能给孩子的教育，基本都属于做人的大道理，但缺乏处世做事的能力教育。有多少人家里教过他说话方式和言辞把控，甚至是说话声调和气势？教过他怎么控制和释放自己的表达欲和表现欲？教过他如何与小人相处，如何与领导相处，如何与坏人相处？教过他如何谋取自己的利益？这些看似是做人的教育，实际都是对抗风险和谋取利益的手段。谋事谋利能力，就是穷人家庭最缺的知识，而不是盯着试错成本这种大能力大目标不放。还有一点穷人缺关系，更是不会结交和维护上层关系，毕竟这个社会说到底是人的社会，关系也是一种绝对实力。\n消灭中产有4个手段\n\n加税，富人避税手段较多，容易加不到他们头上， 加太狠且能润，所以欧洲中产总上街。毕竟富人跑了财政不够用了，只能向中产要，中产税更重了。\n通货膨胀，也不能太多，不会搞货币崩塌社会立即崩盘那套。\n给你暴富机会让你掉坑，旧时的科举也相当于一个暴富机会，一万个里考一个，失败只能怪你自己，毕竟有人成功了。\n金融危机，例子太多，从住别墅到睡大街。给中产（有技能的无产）动力以刺激斗志，推动改善生活的欲望的形成。\n\n中产的欲望\n阶层跳跃和财富保值是中产的两大欲望，在能力足够的前提下都喜欢折腾，财富保值是确保家庭阶层不下滑的底线，阶层跳跃是确定家庭代代传承的关键。\n在经济的上行期，实现财富保值甚至增值的方法简单而粗暴，上杠杆，或者说上杠杆买房，2017年之前，所有按此方法操作的中产阶层基本都达成了这个目标。如果你觉得自己没有达成，唯一的原因是你买的不够多或者你买了鹤岗。\n要实现阶层跳跃，唯一的途径就是创业和教育，因为只有创业才能真正获得优质资产，掌握生产资料，即使是在经济上行期，中产阶层去创业成功率也不高，原因也简单，因为绝大多数从事的行业技术门槛不够高，任何一个存在高利润的行业很容易被蜂拥而至的后来者给稀释掉利润，真正有技术门槛高利润的产业链太少了。\n所以在中国，普通人在正常情况下爬到中产阶层已是极限，这还不够全面，应该是在经济的上行期，爬到中产已是极限；在经济的下行期，普通人要保住中产阶层的位置不变，也已是极限。\n整个世界现在有进入经济下行期的大概率风险，我们也许是下行期表现最好的国家，但是也不可能逃过这个经济周期。在经济的上行期，大家最爱谈的词是双赢，因为大家做的是增量，只是强者吃的那一口一定要大一些，但在经济的下行期，大家心照不宣会谈一个词，内卷，因为大家做的是存量，没有双赢了，只有赢两次，强者吃完第一口，还得吃第二口。\n内卷和内卷期的正确作为\n我们上一个经济轮次先基于加入WTO的整个的经济系统，后基于移动互联网和金融管制的开放。14年是一个明确的分割线，之后中国内部也在做相对宽松的经济货币政策，房地产轮次的增长，这一整体轮次结束了。新的一轮不管是从新能源，还是从新基建，AI还没开始，青黄不接大家就觉得卷。\n卷是阶段，对每一个普通人，通过内卷增加实力，新的一轮经济增长的时候，你能把这个能力迁移过去就是跳脱的储备，底层能力含：影响力，领导力，文案写作能力，公众演讲能力，耐挫折能力，这些能力是能迁移到任何一个行业中的。\n在过程中我们的目的不是说我内卷要获得胜利，而是修炼这些能迁移的能力。还有一种是在内卷发生之前，你要坚持先卷自己，这叫坚持做难而正确的事情。\n下行期的欲望克制\n经济上行期，中产阶级的欲望是上升的阶梯，有欲望才敢上杠杆，上杠杆才有机会获得超额收益；但是在经济的下星期，中产阶层的欲望是悬崖边的毒蛇，随时准备将你拉下悬崖。中产阶层的欲望，在经济上行期越折腾越有；在经济的下行期越折腾越惨。别折腾，别轻易上杠杆，留足现金流。活下来的中产阶级越有可能在未来获得财富增值以及阶层跳跃的机会，这就是内卷的残酷真相。社会的资源是有限的，能够供养的中产阶层也是有限的。\n股市收割机\n中年男人有了一定的社会阅历，可在网上侃侃而谈，在出租车里指点江山，在火锅店里慷慨陈词，从国际形势到宏观经济，从地缘政治到行业趋势，虽然他们只是渊博，观点独到，可惜领导不懂用人，公司战略有问题，创业又是大环境不好，空有一身本领，可惜英雄无用武之地。\n35岁上有老下有小，体力也不如从前了，告别了理想，余生又很长，职业发展停滞，想涨工资又没本事，想创业又没资源，买彩票中奖概率太低，这时候股票出现了，没开始做就能憧憬未来的美好生活，点点鼠标就能赚钱，改善家庭生活品质，给老婆多买一个包，给孩子报个培训班，多带家人出去旅行，提升家庭地位。虽然职场进不了阿里腾讯，但自己认知完全可以从这些公司股票中赚到钱，虽然没有巴菲特的资产，但我可以像巴菲特一样开始滚雪球啊。\n看似很简单，不就是低买高卖嘛，自己对行业，对国际局势的深刻理解也能用得上。以上这些对中年男人的吸引力还不是最关键的，最关键的是股市投资虽不如赌博，赌博概率50%左右，股市概率不到10%，但股市有个正经的名号，叫职业投资者。\n关起门来研究各种K线，国际局势，美联储加息，好像在努力勤劳致富，给了亲朋好友自己正在奔向财富自由的路上，且充满了正能量的自我感动。我一直在奋斗，有希望发财，就有希望吊打那些看不起我的亲戚同事。虽绝大多数人和赌徒没区别，对中年男人最有吸引力的是股市中一时半会证明不了自己没本事，亏钱了那叫浮亏，不是真正的亏损，还可以把巴菲特持有股票几十年不动，获得巨额收益的例子搬出来，证明亏损只是暂时的，以后可以赚回来，虽然整体亏了一半，但有一只股票赚了不少，可以一直拿出来说事，就这样，中年男人的继续在不断的抄底中一点点被消耗，被收割。\n资本的真相\n\n总有人要在甲板之下\n\n所有的资本家要尽一切的可能设计各种游戏避免普通人完成原始积累，因为一旦完成，你就不愿意当螺丝钉了，不愿意当工具人了，你也想坐在头等舱思考人生，思考诗和远方，但头等舱是坐不了那么多人的。\n要是人人都轻松赚钱，谁来建设社会主义？\n人生的悲欢很多就是关于船票的故事，关于升舱的故事，这条路上诞生了很多伟大的文学作品。\n\n一条船（国家/体制）的活力就是补票的机会多不多！\n\n中产子女如何突围？\n田忌赛马\n避开和马二代正面冲击，在需要依靠金钱财力厮杀的领域，就回避。如用好看的妞，玩漂亮的车，喝昂贵的酒，避开这些，马二代的弱点是耐不住寂寞，不愿意静下心来，磨剑十年。\n不和金凤凰死磕，金凤凰虽然穷但好斗，超级努力，虽然很难全方面避开他们。但因为要原始积累，所以金凤凰非常注重短期利益，急啊。\n这样突围路径就清楚了\n\n35岁前不怎么赚钱，秒死金凤凰\n需要5-8年的苦功夫，秒死马二代\n\n面对父母很难容忍子女去做辛苦没面子的工作，较可行的路径有几个：学校老师，医生药师，有编制的大单位，律师会计师。这些工作的特点：需要10年以上的苦熬，中后期有机会大放异彩（上不封顶，下有保底），且需要一定人际关系的情商，父母一辈子的积累可以变现了。\n更宏观的看阶层向上流动\n城堡的这堵城墙依然是有缝隙的，当今的时代拥有比以往更多的工具实现阶级跃迁，但前提是你得具有以下三者中的一项，一是天赋，二是才华，三是美貌。\n天赋\n有天赋的人通常叫天才，本质是基因突变，按人口中的一定比例随机生成，出现地域和时间无法控制和预测，一旦出山就光芒万丈，再保守的既得利益者也不得不考虑将这些天生异能者收编进城堡之内。有天赋者万中无一，上升难度最易。\n才华\n二是才华，一般也叫能人，才华和天赋的区别在于，才华不是随机出现的，而是刻意培养的成果，这往往是平民阶层举数代人之力打造的特优产品，功能和特点都是为统治阶层精心定制的，用着绝对顺手包你称心满意，统治阶级看到居然有人这么有心，往往心生感激，愿意接纳其成为自己一员，有才华这千里挑一，上升较易。\n美貌\n美貌就不用多解释了，占人口比例大概1%左右，可被上层阶级拿来直接当装饰品或者改善基因用，因数量最多，上升的难度要比前者高好几个数量级。\n壁垒升高\n以上三大要素占一个，就有实现阶级跨越的可能，勤奋并不能使人上升到精英序列，勤奋只有在和天赋才华美貌相结合的时候才能发挥助攻作用，单凭勤奋只能保证你上升到底层阶级里的上层。\n三大能力之所以得到精英阶层的承认，是因为这三样东西放在任何群体内都是稀缺资源。\n稀缺资源被优化配置的效率在当今的时代是极速上升，怀才不遇的牛人，小村小镇的美女在未来将越来约难以埋没，随时随地都会被挖掘出来并往城堡输送，过去因为于外界交流不多，娶到自己村里的大美女这种捡漏的好事以后会越来越不他可能。城堡的顶层对于这种受管控的上升通道也乐见其成，他们需要定期小规模换血的方式来弥补自身后代里出现废人的概率损耗，也需要通过引入外来跃迁者的机制来时不时敲打城堡内的对手，甚至不惜打开向下掉落的通道，来警示城堡内的食物链下游。天赋才华美貌其门槛也在不断提高，也是城堡里的人加高壁垒的露骨表现。\n错觉\n平民中的天资平庸者，尽管生活水平会随着技术进步持续上升，但相对的社会位阶却很难变化，很多人会把生活水平绝对值的提升当成自己在人群中相对地位的提升。今天一个普通人拥有的东西，500年前的皇帝会用半壁江山来换，就是典型的在故意混淆绝对值和相对值的概念，今天的小白领在全人口序列中所处的位置看，也就相当于他爷爷辈的一个普通庄稼汉，或者他父辈里一个厂里的工人，看似生活水平极大改善，实际阶层位置分毫未动，这就是被精心设计出来的幻觉，可预见的是，这一两代有生之年，只要社会大致稳定，技术持续进步，社会财富不断增加，这套精英系统便能完美的持续运转。\n谷爱凌给大家的启示\n注重颜值\n长相虽然是天生的，但是这不代表颜值无法靠后天培养。给孩子充分的户外运动时间能保持视力不近视，从小注重营养均衡肉蛋奶尤其是蛋白质的摄入有利于青春期的发育和身高，关注孩子的牙齿发育是否需要正畸，这些事情并不需要花很多钱，但很多父母就是会忽视，导致孩子颜值输在起跑线上，在可见的未来，无论从事什么职业，颜值都是重要的核心竞争力。\n家庭教育\n其次，培养高学历子女，家庭教育在这方面密不可分，谷的家庭为孩子提供最合适的教育资源，这点就领先很多对教育一窍不通只会盲目抨击中美教育的家长太多，还要清楚名校录取规则，万里挑一的规则非精英不录取，相较于常规的内卷考分，谷选择了相对小众的途径：成为某个体育项目的精英运动员，以体育特长的身份入学。\n运动天赋\n再者，关注孩子的运动天赋，中国家长很少有真心培养孩子体育特长的，因为国内家长很喜欢带孩子学一些华而不实的项目，什么弹钢琴啦这种（只能胜出在年会上）。国外的中产和上流，都最重视体育，足球，篮球，高尔夫，拳击网球等。\n体育对于青少年培养最的意义有两个\n\n\n良好的身体素质，比如说足球，世界第一运动。足球能很大程度的培养孩子的敏捷性，灵活性，爆发力。网球，世界商业化排名前三的运动，培养孩子的手眼协调能力移动能力，平衡感。拳击就更不用说了，对于提高耐力，抗击打能力，爆发力，速度都非常有用。\n\n\n另一个很重要的点，良好的心理素质。华尔街金融机构很喜欢招大学里杰出运动员，比如橄榄球四分卫，理由也简单，专业知识是可以学的，但四分卫这种冷静的判断能力，优秀的身体素质，强大的头脑思考面对危机时的抗压能力，这些玩意儿时公司无论如何都培养不出来的。\n玩体育的孩子心理素质普遍比较好，因为玩体育经常要面对的就是接受失败，这会在很大程度上培养出所谓的耐挫力，除了失败，体育也会培养所谓的竞争意识，即便水平不及对方，也不能轻易放弃，认输在很多项目是绝对不允许发生的事。我们富起来的时间太短，对体育重视程度远远不够。\n\n\n颜值，学历，运动这三者缺一不可。这个时代对于优秀的评判标准会越来越多元化，走自己的路不要去内卷，可能是最佳的建议。\n行业岗位\n2000年到2010年间，体力劳动者不缺了，技术人员也饱和了，到处都是求职的普通人，公务员的铁饭碗和隐性福利又成了优势。2010-2020年间，毕业生最期望进入的行业分别是金融，IT，政府。\n金融行业的高薪水来源于国家政策福利，货币从央行流向各行各业，经过的第一道手，就是金融行业，十年周期就是人才的培养周期。下一个十年可能是5G时代，甚至拯救煤炭这样的夕阳产业。谁能预测30-40年后的自己在干嘛呢，能做的，只是把时间拆分开来，并做好当下的事情。\n个体职业生涯阶段\n第一阶段，韬光养晦+强势开局。第一个时间要花时间为前方的漫长道路挖掘和装备自己，学习曲线比职位职称更为重要。\n第二阶段，聚焦长版+持续输出。30-40区间，首先目标是寻找自己的甜区，想方设法平稳地走在那条收获最大的职场路径上，专注于自己的长板。\n第三阶段，优化长尾+可持续发展。40岁之后，已经积累了足够的信用，这时最重要的就是整合资源，让你的体系内的人都受益，让人，钱，事有效运转起来，自发形成一条可持续的职业道路。\n第一份工作很重要，也不那么重要。有很多人第一份工作和自己的事业大相径庭，有多少资源，就去做多少事情。既要专注于手里的六便士，还要记得抬头望望天上的月亮，做长远的规划，也要从当下最平凡的现在出发。\n小镇做题家\n\n小镇做题家形容出身小城，擅长应试，进而通过高考跻身知名大学，可在此之后，不少人却发现人生的走向越来不不在自己的掌控之中，一般用来描述高分低能那批人，或者分数很高却越混越挫的人。\n\n背景的局限\n\n不会处理复杂的人际关系，不懂人性\n\n穷人家的孩子，都是体力阶层，没见过资源交互，利益互享来挣钱。底色还是懦弱、本分，常为情感面子所累，为传统道义所束缚。想当然地认为这个世界是按照课堂上教给你的政治正确，非黑即白的逻辑来生活，而不知道潜规则，灰色地带。中国就是一个大贾府，以前和未来还是。\n当你好不容易懂了，蹉跎到四十，没了机会。一个成熟的人，一个可以轻松驾驭周围所有人关系的人，他们都有一个共同点：知道自己能给别人带来什么。想清楚这个点，一起关系就顺畅了，包括你的父母你的配偶。\n\n下一代总是对弯路上的风景更好奇，非得把他爹吃过的亏再吃一遍，而且津津有味。两代人的话不投机，那些好奇的事情，一半没法讲，一半没水平讲。\n\n原生家庭带给他们太多的狭隘，自卑，呆板，低情商。以至于这些低情商木讷想法，混沌无知的性格贯穿整个前半生，为了盲目努力的唯一信条，不懂社会运行的规则，不懂人情世故的重要，不懂利益交换的逻辑，不懂人性的狡诈多变，更不懂万物的周期规律。误打误撞半生，弄得满身疲惫，偶开眼界，青春早已不在，岁月也早已蹉跎，社会的本质就是丛林世界，人际交往的筹码就是你的价值，价值是别人定的，但价值的提升是你可以改变的。要想获得财富必须建立资产，你最重要的资产是投资自己，让自己更值钱，才能赚到钱。光靠机械的努力是无法改变命运的，比埋头努力更重要的是选对赛道。\n能力的关键伴生因素\n能力这事是流动的，若玩游戏你就明白，出生点位就决定了后续很多的发展方向和风格。看历史也有这种感觉。资源禀赋，交通情况，粮食产能等，这些因素，直接决定后续你应该怎么发展，人亦如此，出生家庭影响后续发展，每个人一生中有好几次重新选择点位，差不多背景的人处于不同的位置，完全就是两种完全不同的结果。\n相同的一个人，在小城市大城市完全是不一样的结果。在小城市去私企和去当公务员，也是完全不一样的结果， 位置对人的影响超过我们自己的想象（一个较好的描述概念是势能位）。位置不仅影响前途，而且影响想法和观念，甚至生活态度也跟着变。我们常说的富人思维和穷人思维，一部分确实是富人们的观念厉害，还有一部分完全就是他成为富人后自觉地就那么思考。\n环境塑造人\n如果把人分为S：顶级高手，A：正常高手，B：普通人，C：脑子不正常的人。S级的人只要环境相对公平竞争，在哪都是牛人。绝大部分人属于A或B，而A或B是相互转换的，这两种人差距并不大，一个正常人被安排到一个高挑战高压力的环境中，不断地被指派舒适区之外的工作，持续几个月不明显，持续几年且能顶得住的话，一样会强悍到难以想象，有些人才智平庸却考上985，也是在高中阶段找对办法潜力爆发B变成A，相反一个人本来很牛逼，名校毕业后被安排去天天填表格打扫卫生，几年下来也只能算是个填表达人；大学英语8级却不怎么用，10年后肯定和个高中生差不多，初中毕业出国不混唐人街，十年英语水平肯定完爆8级高手，所以环境对人的塑造更持久更有决定性。\n说点扎心话\n普通人往往在40岁左右才明白社会的真相，这时正是家庭的顶梁柱，各种压力山大。上层阶级在20岁左右就已经通透了，那是一种传承，几代人的智慧浇灌出来的。人最大的浪费就是时间的浪费，努力奋斗了半生，可能发现自己走的路是错的，几十年的努力抵不上一个正确的选择，最根本的还是自己的认知局限，及身边能影响自己的人的认知局限。\n很多人说的看不到未来其实是看到了未来，因为不甘心所以不愿承认。在40岁某一天突然发现，生命中最好的事情都已经发生过了，剩下的只是重复和老区，让你鼻子一酸的从来不是谁给你说的感悟，而是你似曾相识的经历和久久憋在心里的委屈，是你想说却不能说的心酸。\n辛劳不等于获得财富，整个社会财富的流转实际上是人与人之间博弈的结果，而博弈的技能在各种信息不对称的释放和信息获取中。谁处在信息食物链的顶端，从行业角度来看，获取信息量巨大的金融业，互联网业，政治始终在食物链中高于其它行业，比起其他行业，它们永远都能先闻到肉味，并且利用自身力量对其他行业造成信息不对称的隔阂。从人角度看，学历更高的人和拥有更多权力或技能的人，能在信息不对称中表现的更加精明强干，通俗点说，不太好蒙，且能通过自身力量对他人展出信息不对称能力。如医生说开刀5w，你绝对没有还价能力，病人如果只是一个普通人，哪怕是个小商人，因为自己的能力和阶级地位，决定了他每天都要被讨价还价，财富就是在这样一场场博弈中逐渐积累和丧失的。\n信息差永远存在，也是最快的赚钱方式之一，最典型的就是股市，信息差就是认知差距和认知时间差距。接触这个社会久了，会发现很多事情并非你想象的那样，你发现很多事情不公平，很多歪门邪道依然凑效，很多钻空子的人活得很好。但劝你千万别在自己改变不了的事情上耗费精力。你撞墙角了，你指着墙角一顿骂有什么用，有那功夫还不如去学学挖掘机，给他掘了就行了。\n没人帮你，因为帮你没有任何回报和义务，学会将自己的苦难与他人的苦难绑在一起，将帮助你的利益摆上台面，他人自然就会来帮你了。成年人的世界，没有利益上的驱动，就别指望他人热心肠对待。推送人进步的是不知足，但恰恰人性最恶的也是不知足，总觉得得不到的才是最好的，对得到的又不屑一顾。很多人成功于巨大的不满足，也失败于巨大的不满足，欲望可以让人振作，同样也可以将人吞噬。\n人际交往的规则的核心是一样的，是自我价值体现和趋利避害。工人抽烟喝酒一方面为了排遣干活的劳累，一方面是为了合群，吹牛是为了想显示和炫耀自己，在圈子里赢取尊重。研究派遣属于趋利，因为这样舒服；合群属于避害，打好关系和避免排挤，吹牛就是自我价值体现。高层次人群也是这点事，只不过形式换成了品茶，打高尔夫，欣赏艺术之类的。把人性吃透的人精，到什么层次都是交际花，平民子弟的逆袭之道，不仅要有专业技能等硬实力，更需熟谙社会规则，人性应用等软实力为跳板.\n借力\n北上深的天花板直插天际，大家没空窝里斗，每个人都活在极度焦虑中，就像每年都要高考一样，不断往出榨自己的潜力，自己单打独斗必然有上限，需要依赖别人提拔你，对你赋能。你也需要搭别人的快车。事实上我们一般说的环境，就是周围的各种人对你的影响，在脉脉上吐糟自己领导的员工，也不排除自己没领会到领导的真正能力，当然直属领导也可能就是去的早，不犯错就会有老领导护着。因为领导也需要多年追随自己的坚定支持者，越下层越是自由竞争，讲的是规则。越往上越是熟人社会，甚至王者荣耀顶级段位的人也互相认识，因为段位越高人越少，越容易变成熟人社会，他们互相之间的关系，不只是同事和生意伙伴，更是多次博弈后衍生出来的熟人关系。\n\n有点像你去办点什么事，要先预约，写申请，等审批，但若你的段位很高，对方领导跟你很熟，或想跟你很熟，可能这些事就都免掉了，直接把相关责任人推给你，一个礼拜的流程可能半个小时就解决了。\n由小及大，可能别人要几年才能搞定的事情，在一些大佬那里也就分分钟的事情，只要他愿意出手。马太效应也是这样发挥效果的，你能力越强，帮你的人能力也越强，到最后是指数倍的强。\n\n要破层先破圈\n\n总的来说这个社会是个圈层结构，却一直没人说清楚到底怎么个圈层。每个人既在圈中，又在层中，有的圈是跨层的，有的圈上限却很低。\n\n\n如果你不幸加入个倒霉的不断收缩下沉的圈，整体而言，你最好的结局也不会更好。\n每个人都在不同的圈层中，高考可以帮你破第一个层，但接下来的层却需要圈来破，圈又分为好几种，有的圈本身天花板就很低，它的上限都没法破层，更别说带着你破了。个人奋斗往往在这些圈层里才有意义，或者说这些圈层能放大你的努力，很多小镇做题家其实就是通过高考破了第一层，接下来怎么搞呢彻底懵逼了，如果你没有进入破层圈，上限也就定了，一辈子也就看到头了。太多的人知道自己的舒适区上升空间不大，想破局首先得思考破圈，但是因为舒适区问题，一直不敢去做，最想通过做题这种熟悉的操作解决所有问题，但是如果不懂破局先破圈，那最后也是耗子踩滚轮。\n闯关提升\n高考这个游戏，跟参加工作后的游戏机制不大一样，高考呢更加单元化一些，只要凑齐那么几个装备，就可以打到一个大boss，拿到奖品，参加工作后，游戏的规则变得越来越古怪，甚至没有明确的关卡和boss，不可能像高中一样，通过看书这一个动作，就取得最后的胜利。你需要摊上相对上升的行业，赏识你的领导，不错的运气，领导还得自己有能力，毕竟他能爬上去后才能把你给带上去，而且你自己的能力还得很强，有足够的的积累，把这些都凑齐了，才能每隔一段时间闯一次关，如果凑不齐，甚至连闯关的机会都没有，不少人的痛苦就在这里，毕业后闯关的标准，似乎变得捉摸不定，莫名几年的时间过去了，当初远不如自己的人，已风生水起，自己还在原地。\n\n爬得动的，基本这么几种\n\n\n有意无意加入了一个牛逼的圈，通过这个圈进入了下一个圈\n行业在暴涨，行业里的一部分人，也跟着上去了\n运气特别好\n\n小概率通道\n也不排除有些人有特殊天赋，这些天赋不仅限于数理化，包括当主播，哗众取宠，讲段子。上班创业往上爬，发展会非常缓慢，慢慢才能成为富人或牛逼人，而那些具有哗众取宠特质的人可能就是短短一两年的事，这不是时代的悲哀，恰恰只是成熟社会的特点，成熟社会里娱乐性质的职业爆发会非常快，只是想发达的人多，真正发达的人少罢了。美国那边年轻人的普遍梦想，也不是去nasa当科学家，普遍希望去当歌星，橄榄球明星，这两样才是爆发最快的。\n也有些人天赋一般，但对某件事充满独特的热爱，若有机会，这种人也能向上突破一次，热不热爱非常明显，就看不赚钱是否还能全身心投入，可以就是热爱.喜欢的这件事正好能在市场上找到买家，你也很可以飞黄腾达。但如爱下象棋这类找不到观众和买家的爱好就很难致富，因用户群太小，但如果你打游戏别人爱看，也可以称为月入百万的游戏主播。\n成就自己\n有的人给不了你钱，但可以为你卖命，给无能之辈一个可以鄙视他人的机会，他就会把命给你，就跟李逵给宋江卖命一样。\n能让你成为少数人的事都是反人性的，然你赚钱的事一定是顺应大多数人本性的。我们渴望自由，却无一不在枷锁之中，最重要的是看透枷锁，打造新的枷锁。\n大多数人想要的不是改变，而是一个理由/借口，让他们爽的理所当然，废物的天经地义。人是非常善于给自己洗脑的，80%的人不会承认自己不堪的一面。大众化的内容是一种束缚，为的就是让80%的人稳固在底层。\n真正读懂人性的那段时光，注定是要独自修复自己，勇敢面对一切，没有快乐，好像也没有不快乐，更豁达的接受很多人和事，逐渐平和的内心让现在的自己和以前的自己达成和解，坚韧而又无畏的前行。见天地，见众生，见自己，在自己的世界里独善其身，在别人的世界里顺其自然，做一个永远打不败的自己\n总结\n大部分人可以对马云的成功平常心对待，但很少有人能对大学室友发家熟视无睹，小镇做题家的痛苦其实主要是他们曾经也是狼，只是后来因缘际会，进入了一个静态通道，向上爬不动，陷入了无助和痛苦。\n每个人都是一步步走进了自己编织的困局，也要自己想办法走出来。面对不利处境，一反思就能明白，当初其实也有机会，只是当时被恐惧控制，选择了在舒适区待着，越选路越少。\n小镇做题家的脑子基本没有差的，但是普遍偏保守，渴望稳定，渴望确定性，这种方式没啥错，只是你的目的是稳定和确定性，大概率会获得一个同等的结果。\n解题中年危机\n普通人过了35岁，开始步入“觉醒重塑阶段”，社会的历练使其重新认知了这个世界，祛魅后明白了这个世界并不是像我们被教育的那般运转，那些一直被我们追求的东西，即使没得到也不再有强烈的渴求，开始减配，做减法，开始体验孤独带来的快感，开始“自我”，每天都有不同的发现，认知，顿悟，接纳一切发生，顺其自然。\n碰到问题最难立足的是老实孩子，没有家底，却有家教。法家锁喉，儒家插肋。你若是持善，唯有活成道家，平凡修身，顺应自然。若是弃善，那是另外一说，要么成枭雄要么成狂徒。\n不全是钱的问题\n常提的城市中年危机不仅仅是钱的问题，不然你很难理解为什么很多人遇到中年危机后反而去做一些根本没有胜算的创业项目去翻盘，这可以叫做失业型创业。就是手里有些积蓄，被裁员之后找不到工作只得创业，结果往往是赔了几万甚至上百万，被社会毒打之后老老实实去卖保险了。他陪的几十上百万用来养家，能坚持若干年呢，所以中年危机不全是钱的问题。\n我们行走在这个社会上，需要三个标签\n\n身份标签，是雇佣你的那个企业所赋予你的标签，某大厂总监啦，副总裁啦。\n第二类叫能力标签，就你身上打铁还需自身硬的那个能力，大部分职场打工人这个能力标签是很虚妄的，根本不硬，甚至脱离了公司那套螺丝钉系统，根本就不能独立闭环赚到钱。\n第三个标签是市场标签，通过产品链接到的资源和人脉的这个标签，很多人一旦失业之后，这些人脉资源立马翻脸不认人，因为人家看得是你公司，根本不是看的你这个人。\n\n大部人职场打工人只有第一个标签，中年危机最大的问题就是一旦公司剥夺了你这个身份标签，你其实就是社会性身份死亡，商业社会追求的是价值交换，谁愿意和一个身份标签是中年下岗待业的人交换价值呢？很多人为了社交身份的复苏，他必须得去创业，必须重新给自己一个XX总的身份标签，攒了一辈子的积蓄应付创业其实根本坚持不了几天，于是得到的结果就是中年返贫。\n不错的解法\n\n\n开始着手建立一个公司拿不走你的身份标签。\n\n\n例如你去写一本书，畅销书作者可以是一个不依靠公司的身份标签。\n\n\n可以做自媒体，百万粉丝播主，可能在自媒体圈并不算厉害，但它可能在长江商学院，清华五道口同学里就吸睛了，这可是比公司标签闪亮的多得多的身份标签，同学群里上市公司易得，百万大V难求，每次聚会只要是关于如何理解新媒体，如何理解新流量，如何建立创始人IP的话题，这样估计总能吸引一大群的上市公司同学向你请教。\n\n\n还有一些讲师认证，可给你带来一些独立培训的业务，特别是金融机构券商这些，他们总想人找给他们去做培训，给他们那些理财师啊，投顾做财经IP培训。市面上财经博主很多，但有认证资格的不多。这些都是不依赖公司背景的。\n\n\n\n\n第二个是建立自己的能力闭环的标签。\n\n\n第三是建立公司拿不走的人脉资源。\n\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"少不读水浒","url":"/%E5%B0%91%E4%B8%8D%E8%AF%BB%E6%B0%B4%E6%B5%92.html","content":"\n水浒传行走江湖，快意恩仇，杀富济贫，只是表象，隐藏在表象下的，是梁山英雄充沛的『生命力』，这是生命力的奔放和宣泄，是人体内潜藏的冲动本能，不需要任何附加的深刻意义。明清之后，中国人越来越讲究忍让克制，代价就是上上下下一片死气沉沉，任人欺负，甚至连一声呐喊的能力都被消磨掉了。四大名著之所以不朽，是里面的生命力在时时蓬勃跳动，为沉默压抑的人们保住了火种。\n招安的必然性\n昨天短视频里推荐了武松过飞云浦的一段，评论中又如常的争论起来，谈马下武松，论这种场景只有天伤星武松能逃脱，卢员外和豹子头都将歇菜，说鲁提辖有低血糖毛病也挣不脱，争武松是不是滥杀无辜，提擒方腊死伤梁山众将都怪宋押司这个投降派，梁山的悲剧都怪这黑厮。相信这最后一个论调是男性观众都会有的第一感受，但这个事情真的这么简单吗？有爱好者对梁山的处境做过一番分析，个人觉得非常在理，跳脱常规情绪，招安实在是最好的一条归宿。\n招安到底对不对？\n看看水浒的人员结局\n朝廷毒死二人，宋押司和卢员外，被宋押司毒死一人，李逵。\n自杀殉了二人，吴用花荣（在宋押司坟前，很多人在评论里说在忠义堂，不知道是不是受影视剧影响没看原著）\n做官+退隐共33人，征方腊途中意外死亡5人（淹死4人+毒蛇1人），战死54人，病死11人（算上鲁提辖圆寂）。意外和生命随时可能发生，真正因为征方腊战死就54人，刚好一半。\n梁山造反就不死人，不生病，不发生意外了吗？当然不是，招安不招安梁山都是要死人的，区别就是战死多少的问题，是坚持造反死的多还是招安死的多呢？\n造反的结局\n\n造反失败死光光\n造反成功，但死一半就想做皇帝，就有点太天真了。至少得牺牲一大半，招安死一半算是个不错的结果了。\n\n招安是定数\n\n从结果来看，招安是成功的。下面来看看，宋押司为什么一定要选择招安了。\n人员结构\n三部分组成：民间黑社会草根，有罪在身朝廷官吏降将。草根杀老百姓还算牛，但是和官军作战是不行的。所以要反围剿只能重用朝廷武将，而朝廷武将能投降梁山也一定能投降朝廷，而且他们知道做官的好处。无论何时内心都是向往的，不带着招安下面人也可以自己搞。这也是梁山为什么没有分兵去占领城池的重要原因，把这些人撒出去，谁知道他们会不会主动寻求招安呢。为了把大家牢牢困在一起，宋江才发明了108将制度，大家都待在梁山上，彼此挟持，谁都甭想叛变。\n经济条件\n打仗打的是钱，梁山因为人员结构决定了他占领城池之后不能守（官军会来围攻），就连梁山脚下的乡镇县城，也因为山上缺少读书人，也没有形成有效的治理。梁山为什么缺少读书人？正经读书人为什么当土匪啊？朝廷的科举不香吗，能读得起书的也没那么穷。\n没有治理的结果就是，梁山缺乏可持续发展的能力，只能对外进行掠夺，而为了安全又不能离梁山太远。随着时间发展，梁山能抢的地方必然越来越少，如果朝廷不攻只围，来个坚壁清野，梁山就被困死了。\n梁山的力量在不断壮大过程中，人口也越来越多，经济问题就摆在了眼前。\n\n林冲上山时，柴进向其介绍梁山说3个好汉聚集着700~800小喽啰\n清风寨拉秦明上山时说，晁天王聚集着三五千兵。\n宋江一打祝家庄时起兵6千小喽啰，马军300，算上守山人马，姑且认为三打祝家庄前梁山1万人。\n\n算算账\n一万人一顿伙食20文，那么就是20w，来壶酒吃块肉一天50文打不住。当1两银子1000文，那么就是200两，一个月6千两，一年就是7万两。\n这还没算工资，一个月工资发2两，一年下来就是24w两。这还不算管理层分红和其它不必要的开支，马得买吧兵器得造吧，一年四季衣服得换吧，节约的话，梁山一年开支可能要50w两。\n物资有钱还不一定买的齐。这些事晁盖一定不会操心，但宋江一上山看账本，这离破产不远了啊，解决财政问题的唯一出路就是抢。这不瞄上了祝家庄（山头），跟着宋大哥有肉吃有酒喝有钱花。\n但招安还不够规模，接下来攻打城市高唐州，从区域性团伙到全国性反贼，有资格成为朝堂上探讨的对象。\n段景住来投，他本是倒卖马匹，但马匹是军需物资，是国家管控的，倒卖军用品抓住了脑袋不保，商人就是不能吃亏，他的马（大金国王子的坐骑）被曾头市抢了，跪倒在宋江面前，说要献给宋江的马被曾家五虎夺了去。晁盖被压得太久了，连个军师都不带，奔向了自己的生命终点。\n年龄与战斗力\n从梁山的年龄来说，梁山大聚义的时候宋押司都快40了, 卢员外30多，大宋的平均寿命也就这样了。梁山好汉大多是老宋的同龄人，他们现在是人生的高峰，但是随着岁数的增长身体必然越来越差。\n且大家看梁山的饮食，个个都是酒不离口肉不离手。如此生活方式大大加速好汉们战力的衰退。招安后关胜就是喝醉了坠马而死。在朝廷死了还有后来人补，在梁山死了就无法补充了。\n你能想象50岁的林冲对战20岁的朝廷少年吗? 除非宋江能在10年内消灭大宋，不然梁山的老龄化来临，同样是思路一条。\n大家可能就要问了，梁山就不能生育吗，就问你女人从哪来，到山下抢吗？你有他没有，队伍还怎么带，要么大家一起当光棍，要么一个都不能少，你在哪去找上万的育龄妇女，弄上山又怎么养，有家有口了怕不是战斗力衰退的更快。\n民心向背\n最关键的民心，别看梁山喊的是替天行道，那是梁山的自我美化，在李逵做官那个部分，梁山在百姓心中形象就是土匪，舆论是掌握在朝廷手里的，每天一个告示，梁山就算做了些好事也都被覆盖了，更别说吴用还屠了大名府。虽说朝廷烂吧，梁山也强不到哪去，民心在朝廷梁山怎么会成功？\n宋头领的觉悟\n从宋押司个人来说，当官是他个人的梦想，老大不小了想有所成就，且他的身体也不怎么好，梁山那么多事要操心，人际关系要维持，他累啊，一直造反一直累，招安就可以退休了。就算被朝廷弄死，他也完成名垂青史的目标。\n无论如何作为反贼被人唾弃，他是不要的。宋江对于死是有觉悟的，作为造反头子，朝廷极大可能不会放过他，明知是死也要招安，说一点没为兄弟考虑是假的，毕竟所有人都知道要死也是老大先死。\n事实上宋江也为大多数兄弟找了条不错的路，至于战死的也没办法，无论如何都是要死人的。希望梁山一直存在却不死人的，那只能是幻想。既然一定要有所牺牲，那么就选一条牺牲最少的，收益最大的。\n为何民众不理解\n既然招安是对的，为何很多人觉得宋江很恶心呢，因书中将宋江招安的心态表现的太急切，近乎没有尊严，且也没有像我们上面这样去写梁山面临的困境，如果不换位思考，看起来宋江就是出卖兄弟。\n其实老宋只是在梁山最强大的时候，把梁山卖了一个好价钱。所以宋江无所谓信仰，他所追求的一直以来的都是现实利益最大化，这才是宋江的真面目。\n乌托邦的破灭\n水浒英雄打不下江山，花果山猴子也打不下天庭，悲剧是古今中外一切乌托邦（大观园、永无岛、桃花源）的命运，要么被内部力量冲破，要么被外来的力量打破，乌托邦一定是无法长久维持的。\n家破人亡套餐卢员外\n被逼上梁山人很多，有被女人逼的，有被官府逼的，但有一小撮人，有些特殊，他们衣食无忧，他们身家清白，在家里吃着火锅哼着歌，突然来了一波兄弟，对他说，来吧，兄弟，不要迟疑，梁山欢迎你。不想去？那就是不想给宋大哥面子，家破人亡套餐已经给你热好了。\n这其中，卢俊义的上山尤其突然，像是管理层心血来潮的从北宋胡润榜上找了一位会武功的。没有一点点防备，他就出现在了梁山的名单上。让我们看看卢老爷上山背后的故事。\n晁天王坑货遗言\n晁天王中箭，宋大哥收到消息后一边抹着眼泪一边开始准备第二天的就职演说发言稿，他告诉圣手萧让，润色这稿子时，要悲痛中饱含力量，绝望中透出希望，当晚萧让被逼的差点上吊。晁天王眼看着只有出的气没有进的气了，宋大哥揣好就职演说稿，就等天王咽气前的那一句：贤弟，就由你干下一任，接着就是伏地痛苦哥哥你别走，众人恳求，自己推辞，众人再哭求，自己再力辞，直到李逵喊着，哥，你要是不领导我们，我现在就死。此时，才能抬头45度，让一滴眼泪慢慢从自己的黑脸上滑落，发出一声轻微的叹息，既然如此，哥就勉为其难吧。虽然只是走个形式，但是读过书明事理的人，都在朝中做官了，梁山兄弟们讲的是排面，表面功夫要做足。\n但那天晁天王展现了自己第一遗言家的风采，彻底打乱了宋大哥的计划。他说，贤弟，哪个捉得射死我的，哪个顶我的位。演讲稿用不上了，问题变得很棘手。宋大哥后悔死了，自己怎么提前把招安的想法透露给了晁盖？如果当时自己说，要把梁山健身事业做大做强，卖课撸铁拿冠军，晁天王死前一定心满意足的把权杖交给自己，现在天王生气了，临死前还在跟宋江怄气。\n记得晁天王刚中箭时，所有人都跃跃欲试，武松喝多了，大着舌头说：史文恭知不知道我的名字就叫今晚打老虎，林冲冷笑道，这厮马上枪棒还可以，八成是跟他师娘学的。李逵挥舞着板斧，骂得比较粗糙，他说我要把姓史的打出屎来。可现在这句临终怄气遗言，更像是临终诅咒，梁山此刻变成水泊上的黑珍珠号，每个人都噤若寒蝉，史文恭从人人喊打变成了无人敢抓，一旦抓了就要继承。宋大哥要当话事人，史文恭就是龙头棍。问题是不要说曾头市绝顶高手史文恭，就是曾头市的老太公，宋大哥如果凭自己本事，怕是也只能跟老人家五五开，看似已成僵局，但是难不倒奇谋妙计宋大哥。\n引入强力外援\n几天后，他召集所有员工告诉他们，晁天王的仇一定要报，但经过公司慎重考虑，俱乐部决定引入一名强力外援，这名被称为强力外援的人，此刻正在自己的大庄园里，吹吹风，喝喝酒，在他眼中，只有自家这美丽的别墅庄园，有屋又有田，生活乐无边。管家得力，妻子漂亮，小乙（燕青）能干，所有人都会称赞他卢老爷真是个体面人。\n有钱人上梁山，背景调查要做足，像柴老板这样的，有钱敢折腾天天养着几百杀人犯的大佬，自然受所有人爱戴，可毕竟是少数。勾结官府的不能选，联手恶霸的不能要，考虑到已有好汉的感受，霸占人妻的pass，坑害忠良的pass，范围无限缩小，条件直逼圣人，本以为在水浒世界，这样的珍稀物种已经灭绝，万万没想到，目标人物出现。梁山河北办事处的兄弟收集了卢俊义的信息，上流社会，有钱有闲，不干坏事，武力一线。听到这个消息，宋大哥激动地好几天没睡着。武力值方面，全国武术枪棒冠军的头衔足够震撼，史文恭毕竟手到擒来。但这只是表面，卢老爷的用途远不止于此。\n一切围绕招安\n宋大哥反复强调，一切围绕招安，一切为了招安，我们一定要招安，我们一定能招安，但想要朝廷看得起，必须自身有点东西。卢老爷这样的正面形象，如果加入梁山，必然能极大地提升企业形象。在此之前，在梁山上漫山遍野奔跑着的是，都是疯狗李逵，跳蚤时迁一类的野生动物，朝廷招安的特派员来到山上，就如同踏入了动物世界，叫出名字不好听，宋大哥面子上不好看，公司估值上不去，而一旦卢老爷加入后，人们谈论梁山会发现上流社会，竟然也有人甘愿抛弃庄园产业跑到一个湖心岛上自得其乐，看来水泊有好人，梁山有前途。这支股票买它！如果再补上一句，卢老爷这样的人物在梁山也只能担任二号，那么一号该是何等英雄？\n想到这里，宋大哥先是偷笑，随后一拍桌子怒吼道，卢俊义我吃定了，徽宗也留不住，我说的。宋大哥豪言已经出口，如何兑现就是下面人的事儿了，吴学究认为自己的赚人技巧天下无双，但缺乏代表作，这个大case的出现让他塑造心中的完美作品成为可能。教授的水平就是高，在把握人心方面登峰造极，他明白像卢老爷这样的成功人士，买东西都是不求最好，但求最贵，于是算卦开口就是一千，贵人一万。对于这样的定价卢老爷非常满意。如果和普通人一样价格，逼格何在？\n眼前的算命组合不按套路出牌，以前这帮大忽悠都是吉祥话说不完，但今天这位上来就说你有血光之灾。经过了吴教授的一番忽悠，生在豪门没有受过苦的卢老爷突然感到了一阵枯燥和乏味，他一边告诉家人，世界那么大，我想去看看。一边感激地握着教授的手说，你来的太及时了，我怎么早没发现我有血光之灾呢？\n对于燕青的警告，李固的劝告，夫人的挽留，卢老爷通通回绝，想每个师父都说我功夫天下无双，梁山几个小毛贼，我分分钟教他们做人。\n一人包围一万人\n一路向东南前进，路过梁山时，卢老爷扛着横幅，向梁山发起了自杀式冲锋，他准备用自己一个人，包围梁山一万人。由于吴用负责的HR面已经通过，在经过李逵，武松，鲁智深等部门经理的重重面试后，卢老爷被捆到了忠义堂前，宋大哥双手递上信封，语重心长的说，卢员外，这是梁山给你发的special offer，卢老爷当场就撕了，平时就很鄙视贪官，更鄙视盗贼，他做梦都想不到有人让他当强盗。\n看着卢老爷愤怒的挣扎，宋大哥又笑了。新来的给脸不要脸，这就是梁山的名场面。后续行动，那就请各位经理再配合一小下，吴军师送管家李固下山，告诉他你们老爷已经干土匪了，回家怎么做自己看着办，李固对这天赐良机立马心领神会。\n在梁山上，卢老爷经历了人生中最漫长的饭局，第一天，宋大哥请吃龙虾，第二天吴教授请吃鲍鱼，第三天公孙法师请吃仙丹，依次继续，他怀疑这样下去，是不是要吃一千零一夜，才能回去。四个月后，打圈完毕，在苦苦的哀求下，宋大哥终于同意，放人回家。卢俊义觉得自己梁山这一趟，虽没做成什么买卖，但是认识了一些真好汉，他们都拿自己当兄弟，这年头据说人脉也很重要，这波不亏。\n归城被捕梁山救人\n卢员外从城外一回来，第一个看见的就是前门大街正在乞讨的小乙。小乙边哭边诉说自己被李管家和贾氏扫地出门的情景，卢老爷听了大怒，大骂小乙，你小子简直是张口就来，李固和贾蓉是不会背叛我的，可惜结局和卢老爷想的有些差距，很快他就到了监狱里。在监狱里，李固说：”哥，卢府已经改李府了，为了小贾你认罪吧！“，贾蓉说：”老爷，李固是个值得托付的人，但我们是清白的，darling你快画押“。\n人的一生有许许多多的夜晚，很多都是没有意义的，但是大名府死囚牢的那一夜，对于卢老爷来说，意义重大。他想了很多，到底是梁山害了我，还是管家和老婆害了我？思考的结果不得而知，只知道在梁山大军将他救出来时，宋大哥面带歉意，吴军师脸色微红，他们说，员外，我们来迟了。卢老爷想，这一切应该归咎于李固贾蓉，更应该归咎于梁山，可现实是囚徒不好当，人要往前看，世界上只剩一条路，但仇人是收费员，那到底要不要交钱？\n只听威震天下的玉麒麟朗声答道：全是我的经纪人串通老婆，谋夺家产要害我！多亏梁山兄弟救我，宋大哥万岁万万岁！宋大哥和教授相视一笑，不愧是卢老爷，一下就想通，事办得真体面。\n上梁山立大功\n上了梁山后，得知了晁天王的诅咒，卢俊义有点慌，左看右看，上看下看，原来每个好汉都不简单。小乙端来洗脚水，卢老爷一边泡脚一边陷入深深的思考，这些不简单的好汉，他们平时开口宋大哥，闭口吴教授，左一句鲁大师，右一声林教头，问题我这个外来户，脸上可是一点麻子都没有啊。\n怕什么就来什么，曾头市战场上，宋大哥那边已经布下了天罗地网，各位好汉全都奋勇争先，但是没有一个人敢碰史文恭一根手指，连史文恭都很纳闷，自己是不是开了挂，一个人怎么就从几千人的包围圈中毫发无损的杀出来了，正在诧异中，一把砍刀划破夜空招呼过来，史文恭应声落马，卢老爷毕竟上山时间短，看到敌人要逃，条件反射出手，等回过味来，才惊恐发现，自己真的抓了史文恭。\n忠义堂上，宋大哥躬身行礼，指着第一把交椅说，按照天王遗愿，卢老爷你请。卢俊义惶恐的看了看四周友善的眼神，做了平生最完美的演讲，他声泪俱下的说：”英雄身后是英雄，好汉身边有好汉，在梁山的领导下，在宋大哥的指挥下，我才有了今天的成绩，如果说我得了100分，那么宋大哥完成了前面99分，却将最后的1分体面留给卢某，你们说，谁该当大哥，我选宋大哥，谁赞成，谁反对？“\n掌声响起来，忠义堂放起了愉快的音乐，卢老爷掏出手绢擦了擦汗，刚才厕所偷听吴军师的话，言犹在耳，他要是不体面，你们就帮他体面。生在大名府富豪之家，从小练就了一身绝世武功，可社会经验等于零，拿了爹给的几个亿，就以为自己很行，遇到宋江之后，才明白了谁是大哥，什么叫忠义江湖，一切根本不像小说中说的那样，武林高手，江湖畅游，功夫高万事都能摆得平，因为有功夫而没实力，头一个死的就是你。\n卢老爷在梁山唯一做对的事，就是宋大哥谦让寨主之位时没有顺杆上，说“感谢大哥提拔，那小弟就不客气了”，只能说，经过家破人亡，亲信背叛的大挫折后，他长大了。\n如果他真敢坐虎皮椅，那么喝了毒酒落船淹死的杀青戏，相信会再提前几年，毕竟咱们梁山泊还缺水吗？\n梁山在哪\n水浒的浒字，最早见于《诗经》，就是水边的意思。梁山是一座山（主峰海拔197.9米，按当地地面海拔算起，只有150米，相当于胡夫金字塔的高度），在今天山东西南部的梁山县，其周围的水今天已经全干了，春秋到汉代，叫“巨野泽”，是当时九大湖之一（刘邦的大将彭越，就在这里打渔，是游击武装和强盗的欢乐谷）。五代以后，黄河经常决口。后晋天福九年（公元994年），黄河在河南滑县决口，大水漫灌，最后在梁山周围聚积起来，将原来的巨野泽扩大，就叫梁山泊，这个名字也是五代之后才有。此后黄河经常决口，梁山泊就越来越大和有名。\n水浒除了发生在水边的故事，还有一些发生在山边的故事痕迹，例如黄泥岗书里说在太行山，郓城县离太行山三四百里，能跑这么远去劫道？梁山是座小山，但水浒里描写梁山，很像一座高大险峻，易守难攻的山寨。这是因为水浒传还融合了一些南宋初年北方抗金忠义军的故事，这比宋江活动的时间晚了二三十年。北宋亡了，但北方还有许多被打散的宋军，就自发组成许多队伍，和金人打仗，这些民间军队，统称为忠义军，打游击，正好河北山西交界的太行山，合适，高大险峻，有多少兵马都可以藏在里面。水浒里的梁山好汉，很多是军官出身，如智深做过提辖，这是忠义军队伍的特征。太行山和梁山泊，同样流传着好汉故事，传着传着就合并了。\n其之所以易守难攻，在水不在山，周围港汊数千条，四方环绕八百里，这种地貌的湿地，适合藏人马，打游击。就像雄安新区的白洋淀，还保留着华北湿地的基本样子，也是抗日战争游击队的重要战场。\n自南宋到元代之后，因黄河改道，梁山泊失去了水源，不断缩小。今天唯一留下的水面，叫东平湖，此湖离梁山已经三十多里。变成梁山有山没水，东平有水没山，两者一直在争。\n真实的宋江打仗比水浒传里厉害多了，史书上说他“勇悍狂侠”，数万官军，都不敢和他交锋。后来中了名将张叔夜的埋伏，才投降了朝廷。只是没什么证据证明这位真实的宋江和梁山泊有关系，也不知道他到底是哪里人，既然故事中梁山泊成了他的大本营，就干脆把他的老家安在山东郓城县–梁山泊的边上。\n宋江的三十六个兄弟，只有他留下了名字。到了南宋时期，人们就开始给这三十六人起名字编故事。南宋有个人叫龚开，写了一篇《宋江三十六赞》，出现了完整三十六人名单，但有晁盖、孙立、没有公孙胜、林冲。到了元代，出现一本《大宋宣和遗事》，把这些人的故事写得更详细，大部分被吸收到水浒传里了。\n施耐庵生平与笔力\n\n施耐庵这个名字在正史中并无记载，作者的考证，尚有疑问，大家权且一看\n\n36岁得中进士，结识了同榜进士刘伯温，在钱塘县尹任职，当时做事要得到元人担任的达鲁花赤（蒙语 掌印者的意思，即督官）批准，不得志触怒元人，愤然辞官，在苏州施家桥办学授徒，手下了一个商人儿子罗贯中为徒。后贩卖私盐的张士诚起兵反元，其属下卞元亨是施耐庵表弟，在卞元亨邀请下，施耐庵做了张士诚的军师。后因为张降元，施耐庵多次劝谏不听，意见不合，辞别张士诚开始游学。\n内战内行，外战外行，在人心描写和角色塑造上笔力很强，但在作战书写方面就跟不上，描写草草。\n\n108将排位最后是时迁和段景住，这就是“时过境迁，此段光景难驻”，大排位后，就开始走下坡路了。\n梁山三位寨主，名字先后为王伦，晁盖，宋江，倒过来看，你可以看作宋朝亡。宋朝江山改朝换代（晁盖），王朝轮换（王伦）。\n宋江，宋清，分别是老三老四，宋将倾，非一木所支，而宋字下面就是一个木字，水浒传写的就是宋亡，写的就是末日来临，不久之后靖康之耻，宋江招安不招安，结果都是末日。\n大宋那么多起义主角，天魁宋江，地魁朱武，朱明就是作者在经历的时代，对宋江充满惋惜和向往，不得不接受历史的滚滚洪流\n\n元末明初写就水浒传，但朱元璋查禁，无人敢印，直到嘉靖年间，才付诸刻印。\n一些地理描写错误\n\n林暮冬时节上梁山，水不结冰，还山排巨浪，水接瑶天。\n杨志押生辰纲，出发地在北京大名府，也即当今河北大名县，只要一路向西南就能到开封，竟然往东南跑山东绕一圈，在郓城县把生辰纲丢了，且书中提到的黄泥冈在太行山，是另一个问题了\n宋刺配江州牢城，即今天九江市，宋从郓城县（梁山南边）到江州只要一路向南，为何又向北走了几十里跑到梁山泊附近被晁盖劫上山\n宋在江州（九江）题了反诗后，戴宗去开封送信，居然又经过梁山泊。\n武松回家路线也神奇，从柴大官人在沧州的庄园出来，回河北清河，本来是省内旅游，居然跑到山东阳谷县打死一只老虎。沧州去阳谷是会路过清河县的，不知多绕这段是为何。\n有些回本中写宋江打辽国，说霸州有两个隘口两边都是险峻高山，可霸州都是一马平川的大平原，小土包都没有。\n\n创作者对北方路线不熟，对北方地貌也不熟。另外，梁山好汉为了完成任务，竟然可以大队人马全国乱跑，不被沿途官军发现。除了不熟悉北方地理（写征方腊时，一条河，一座桥，都符合当地地理），对军事问题也不太熟悉，写英雄好汉，人情世故，都入木三分，但写到军事，就逊色的多，还有很多错误。\n水浒的优异\n水浒的设定实在真实，英雄也会得病，也要吃饭，也有老小要照顾，沦落成囚犯，也会受到差役的欺压，手里没钱了，一样走投无路要变卖祖传宝刀。\n西游记悟空每到没办法时，总有满天神佛相助，而水浒里没有人可以倚靠。最后若写好汉招安为国屡立战功，封妻荫子，世代富贵，好听了，但这是廉价的结尾，起义军的下场历史上就是水浒这样的。\n像俞万春的《荡寇志》，写张叔夜1121年擒宋江，从此万民乐业，恭承天命，永享太平，可靖康耻就在1127年，合着这永享太平也就6年时间。\n残忍与血腥\n如何评价《水浒传》里的负能量，无数的凶杀场面只当是很寻常的事。作者并没有刻意说这种行为多么正确，也没有为这种行为辩护。古代与今天比起来，是非常残酷和不安全的，古人见到的死亡太多，瘟疫，疾病，战争，孩子夭折家常便饭。还有溺死女婴等，这些今天看来都是蓄意谋杀的事在古代也经常发生。古代饥荒爆发的严重性，频繁性，是今人很难想象的，即便经济发达的宋代，也出现多次「人相食」，元代更多，短短九十七年，见于史料记载的人相食就有几十次，所以水浒作者多次写吃人肉，当时并不觉得有什么下不去笔。在杀人这件事上，梁山好汉和官府的做派是半斤八两，即便是童话一般的《西游记》，八戒，沙僧都曾做过吃人的妖怪，吃了几百年的人。\n《水浒》对普通人生命是漠视，无感的，这种无感，普遍存在于古代社会中。文学是反映人心的，科技没那么发达，社会没那么安定，法律没那么人性，都会影响人们的普遍心态，影响到文学上，就是拿人命不那么当回事。这种心态直到新中国成立后，才慢慢消失。早期武侠小说也有一些无辜路人被随意杀害的情节，后期才越来越人性化，笔下越来越有节制。\n梁山好汉的替天行道，大体是处死贪官和劫富济贫，杀贪官是平民愤，劫富济贫是利民生。看上去是大家喜闻乐见的（不像当今的工业社会，财富永远在增长，当时财富就那么多，大户的钱粮往往是靠不道义的手段压榨周围穷人而来），但社会并不能靠这种激烈的非常规手段促进公平。让通臂猿猴开办服装厂，让轰天雷研发开矿爆破技术，没准更加有利民生，当然这在当时是不切实际的幻想，也不是梁山好汉所能想到的。\n读古代文学作品时，应看到古人的苦难和无奈，理解他们为什么这么做，这么写。例如我们并不知道，一千年后的人看现在的文学，会不会也觉得反感和厌恶（每天许多人像填鸭式的挤在地铁里，会不会也打呼灭绝人性呢）。另一方面，我们要看到优秀的文学作品都是在深刻的描写人性，弘扬正气还是娱乐大众，只是它的副产品。人性有光辉的一面，也有阴暗的一面，好的作品，一定不会无视、回避、而是如实地书写。不是创作者残酷，而是当时的社会就是这样的残酷，人性中就有这样的残酷。写出来后，创作者的任务就完成了，该思考的，是我们自己。\n宋公明的魅力从哪来\n宋江论出身，不如柴进；论相貌不如卢老爷，论武功就不用说了，矮脚虎他也不是对手。但大家都服他，见了无不纳头便拜，和他为难的人，一听说是宋江，立即就换面孔，原来是及时雨宋公明哥哥，小弟有眼不识泰山。宋江是江湖上义气的标杆，当上梁山泊的领袖，实至名归。\n水浒的伟大就在于它的现实，水浒里的江湖，有别于武侠小说，谈情说爱，捡到武功秘籍，遇到世外高人。水浒的江湖是一个凶险的世界，正所谓但凡能安居乐业，谁去流浪江湖。江湖上吃饱肚子的时候少，饿着的时候多，有钱的时候少，扬眉吐气的时候少，活着的少，残酷恐慌，冰冷阴暗。在这样的江湖，好汉最需要什么？不是神兵利器，不是武功秘籍，而是关爱，谁能慷慨的给他们温暖，谁就是义的化身，受到尊重，有号召力。『仗义疏财，扶危济困』八个字，正是宋江立身扬名的本钱。宋江在上层社会没名气，因为他们少有在江湖遇到困窘时刻，但在底层哪里，他绝对是神一样的存在。何况宋江待人是不分高低的，这就是他有别于柴大官人之处。\n今天出门有高铁高速，到处有餐馆旅社，不行还可以找警察，只要勤劳不愁没工作，穷不至于饿死人，所以大家的兴趣集中在明星或专家身上，所以难想象过去能做到那 8 个字的人是多么的难得。宋江哪怕在落难途中也不改乐善好施，被押解江州，路过揭阳镇，遇到病大虫薛永在街上打把式卖艺没人打赏，见他惶恐，便叫公人取出五两银子来，给其道『教头，我是个犯罪的人，没甚与你。这五两白银权表薄意，休嫌轻微』，要说他收买人心，他和薛永素不相识，路上偶遇，以后也未必再相见，有什么人心可买，可说是真正的仗义了。然而薛永此刻需要的，正是钱啊。柴也不是不款待武，他待人是不能始终如一的。柴称武为大汉，连个名字都没，可见他对客人是多么漫不经心了。反过来看宋，他在柴庄上还是客人，却和武一处安歇，还拿出钱来给武做衣服。送别武时，更体现了宋的细致，拿了银两，一送再送，还请吃一顿饭，望不见了才回来。这样的温暖，怎能不让武死心塌地，认这位大哥呢，其实宋只花了十两，相当于柴见人就给的十贯钱，另外柴还搭了一斗白米。\n说慷慨，柴花的钱比宋不知多多少倍，但如果只是给钱给物，与养条小狗有什么区别？宋对人的关心，是经济上的，又是精神上的，且始终如一的，符合江湖上对义的要求，这就是他成为及时雨，受到好汉拥戴的原因。\n晁盖的作风，和宋很像，爱结识好汉，仗义疏财，但没提他扶危济困，周济穷人，替人排忧解难。这里正是本质区别，一个自发的义，不计宋超越社会阶级的自觉的义。虽然在胡乱杀过人方面，晁比宋强得多，也够厚道和真诚，但做事太粗糙，缺乏通盘的计划，信马由缰的干，是独行侠的生活，不是领袖的生活。把决策权完全交给别人如吴用，说好听点是对属下信任，不好听就是缺乏谋略，不负责任。\n真实历史上的宋，被评勇悍狂侠，应是能打仗，胆子大，很像智深。小说，戏曲，民间故事，甚至电视里面的宋都不一样，也就是不同的媒介里，会拥有不同的性格。人物性格会受到媒介形式的影响，这是一种很重要的思考方法。\n另外，书中同是酒后吐真言，一个要造反要当黄巢，血染浔阳江口，一个要招安，平虏保国安民。哪个为真，人性没有那么简单，这是其心中不同小人的声音。文学是描摹人性的，越是名著人物越难随便给人贴标签，大家喜欢讨论他，为一个文学人物争吵，正因为其身上，具备我们所有人的多层心理，雄心壮志，说谎耍赖，慷慨大方，自私自利。\n一个较奇特的角色公孙胜\n入云龙公孙胜较早的离开队伍，从命数上看，他了解了造反之事在宋江来了之后成不了。\n晁盖没有大抱负，宋江一心想招安。这跟刘秀有二十八宿就开创东汉局面很不一样，将熊熊一窝。\n靖康之难降至，不打碎这个旧世界，维护的出路已看透，索性不如归隐。\n电视剧与原著\n98年水浒传针对原著有很多丰富和修改，但拍的很精致，满足了民众的胃口，属实可称精品，尤其是老电视剧的选角，不说先入为主，着实非常用心审慎。\n\n举两个原著与影视的差异\n\n\n起码很多人一张嘴武松单臂擒方腊，可书上是花和尚在山林的房子里绑的\n林冲也是在征方腊成功后病死的\n\n其它版本不及98版就不说了，部分情节也借用98版的改造设定，如武松单臂擒方腊。\n三国与水浒的对比\n梁山好汉主体是市民阶层，比三国里的精英阶层差了一大截，对社会底层的描写和关注恰恰是水浒的优秀之处。\n三国里曹操为父报仇打徐州，需要白旗白甲，一个命令全军就完成了，这些装备是谁赶做的，是不用问的，看到三国英雄叱咤风云，可曾想过战马病了谁来治，盔甲坏了谁来修，饿了饭菜谁来安排。\n三国写押运粮草，几句话就到了前线，可曾想过这些运粮的士兵，赶上酷暑怎么办，辛苦不辛苦，想不想家，押队的将领对他们好不好，路上的饥民有无动过抢劫的心思。水浒里告诉你杨志押运生辰纲，热得嘴里冒火，无比辛苦。三国几句话就打下一座城，可曾想过，会不会有人趁火打劫，普通人家的孩子躲在门缝看到满城乱跑的兵马，是害怕他们的刀枪，还是羡慕他们的威风，水浒说了，剿匪的官兵下到三阮的村子，就要大抢，百姓不堪其扰。\n历史书上常写的政治腐败，民不聊生，在水浒里就是林娘子被逼上吊，武松告状无门，三阮打不到鱼，及石秀做生意“消折了本钱”。三国放眼是天下大事，水浒着重个人经历，一个鸟瞰，一个特写。小说归根到底是要写人的，从事转移到了人，是文学的进步。\n蔚然成风的宋代农民起义\n历史上农民起义闹的最严重的，是很多人心心念念的宋朝，从宋代319年的时间里，记载爆发农民起义433次，一年就要爆发1~2次。\n元朝人编的宋史是又臭又长，毕竟蒙古人没有写书的习惯，所以宋史内容大多就是把宋朝官方文件换个封皮直接拿来主义，这也使得相对客观。不过433次农民起义里真正属于大规模的，只有方腊那一次，剩下的都是小打小闹跟明的李自成，清的太平天国不是一个级别。\n维稳和谐社会\n宋史里农民起义规模虽小，但哪怕最小的县城里几个刁民闹事都能写进官方文件里，且写的非常详细，有注水的起义的嫌疑。这就要说起宋朝对待农民起义的态度了，宋朝政府对待民变最直接的态度就是招安，能不动手就不动手，每年为了维持地方的稳定还会专门给地方拨款，用来安抚暴动的乡民。\n不抑兼并的历史根基\n在大多数人的印象里，农民起义能反映一个王朝在特定阶段社会矛盾的严重性，可这个常识在宋朝完全不适用，因为其他王朝基本是新的地主阶级打倒旧的地主阶级，掌权后再一次对全国重新分配土地，因为战争导致了人口下降，所以王朝初年还能政通人和，可宋朝的开国不是建立在重新分配土地基础上，而是旧的军阀将领趁着老领导挂了，欺负人家遗孀才上位，掌权后面临一套已形成利益勾结的官僚班底，毕竟开国皇帝没有把老股东一起送走，导致宋朝刚一建国已经出现一个王朝中期才会有的土地兼并严重的问题。\n怎么办？不抑兼并政策出台了，百姓的土地全被兼并走了，所以宋代开国之初老百姓过得也不咋地，没了土地只能造反了。\n政策性起义\n朝廷的做法是招抚，给这些失去土地活不下去的农民招募到军营去当兵，有点文化又没土地的，则通过不断扩大王朝编制的方式为这帮人解决就业问题，你一看闹事居然会闹成公务员，不想进编制的，朝廷会给你安置费，这样你就能活下去了，那这不蔚然成风？\n政府不管这样乱局？毕竟朝廷的安置费也可以克扣，你懂的。有时候地方只是闹了屁大点的事，地方官就会添油加醋的报给朝廷，朝廷立马拨款，官员先吃一部分安置费，农民挣剩下的那部分，实现灵活就业，大家都有美好未来。到蒙古人南下，大宋生死存亡的时候，全国的政策性起义突然下降了，毕竟朝廷没功夫管了，大家折腾也没意义了。\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史","文学"]},{"title":"巨头的医疗软肋","url":"/%E5%B7%A8%E5%A4%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BB%E7%96%97%E8%BD%AF%E8%82%8B.html","content":"\n截止2021年，一个略显“尴尬”的现象是，在辅助诊断用途医学影像AI的三类证审批上，有钱、有人、有资源的BAT颗粒无收。\n\n对于医疗人工智能企业来说，三类证是最重要的入场券。而当前没有三类证的医疗AI公司，犹如怀有一身教学绝技，但没有在校内教学资格的老师。纵使本事不小，也上不了台面，更赚不了钱。\n\n新冠之前，是中国互联网狂飙突进的十几年，改造重塑了不少行业，也有些行业始终不接受深刻指导。举例从没立起来一个母婴垂直电商巨头，医院除了挂号，多一点手机App看诊断报告之外，也是互联网化外之地，说明总有些领域有其特有的特质及禀赋，势必不能粗线条等同看之。\n本文主题是&quot;医疗信息化整合-AI化&quot;历史撞墙，管中窥豹瞅瞅曾经失败的过往和各路神通，原文是一个&lt;巨头的医疗软肋5问&gt;系列，很长，摘录少许组织如下：\n供给侧\n矛盾的心理：大三甲生意难做，民营机构故事又不够动人，无法帮立人设。\n铁锤人的狂躁\n互联网一两年时间就要出成果的打法，在医疗行业连水花都打不出来，对一个巨头内部团队来说，按时间来兑现成果，是很残酷的一件事。\n投入产出\nB端软件要看人均投入和产出，一般B端软件传统人均投入30w，人均产出40-50w。但现在B端公司，招了互联网人员，算法人员，人均投入50w-60w，但人均产出都不能double，行业级软件不会因为产研投入贵，就有强溢价权。\n\n医疗AI的商业化充满了定制化，人力成本高企的情况下，盈利非常困难。\n\n模式碰墙\n交付轻的医疗信息化软件商业模式不成立，没有一家企业在这个领域靠卖工具上市，客单价高，交付重的产品（如大数据）才是好底牌。远程问诊已交学费，基本全挂，奇点未到。移动支付甚至还倒贴一些成本（来自帮接口开发）。\n医疗行业重渠道，重生态，重用户习惯，科室主任的个人主观因素，对医疗AI有决定性的生杀大权。应当从某一刻开始，从研发主导切换成合规主导。【大厂赛马机制及人员高流动，让信息科主任需要与不断更换的团队进行磨合】\n创业的文化冲突\n任何创业领域都是帮派，文化冲突大于业务冲突。消费互联网可以没有文化，靠业务驱动，团队不需要特别强的文化共识，只要业务告诉增长，也能往前走。可中国商业模式创新已偏红利尾声。\n文化冲突其实非常难办，比如说医学背景往往就是体系内的人、技术背景往往是互联网人、产品有可能是B端HIT（医疗信息化，民营背景）、商务又是药械外企背景的。他们彼此吃饭的口味都说不到一起去。\n利益冲撞\n医疗行业的山头，利益群复杂程度要比教育体系更多，比如运营商就绕不开。运营商内部有KA，部分与医院合作一签就是三五年，强在本地服务网络，BAT就只能通过一个核心来辐射区域业务，人力体量与运营商没法比，与客户的日常沟通也没运营商多，慢慢出现一种现象，承接城市级的云，将医疗作为其中一个部分，间接获得一部分数据，核心还在运营商管控下的城市级云中。\n需求侧\n云，伪需求\n有些企业更关注云服务中的弹性元素，如电商，但还有一些相对静态的企业，对云服务的使用需求较为稳定，维持核心业务系统稳定，高效，数据安全和可用性更加重要（医院就属于这后一批）\n\n极少有高并发，一般不需要大算力，即便是医院规不断增大，医院信息中心进行有序的扩容也能满足要求，对云的需求甚至只是网站托管。\n\n云服务出现故障，大公司部门林立，沟通流程很长，医院等不起，除了医疗事故谁来负责？数据上云之后，医院心理上就成为被动的一方，感觉被人拿住了七寸，上云之后，云厂商就从水厂电厂，变成了水老虎，电老虎。\n上云之后很多开销，是花在传输线路上，共享式带宽，上传和下载速度不对等，仓促上云，很多项目细节没协调好就仓促上马，效果不佳结果易不欢而散（如单体架构换微服务没改造充分）\n定制化\nIBM Watson与德州大学医院做的私有化方案时，发现与HIS深度整合的构想实现难度极高，很多院内数据完全不可用，互联互通困难。\n瞄向重做一套全新的HIS系统的方向，重做HIS那也不是一点点成本能包住的。\n\n整个合作关系中，强势方还是甲方医院，作为吞金兽的院方，原来的HIS系统碎片化，本就是各院方刻意的成果。重做，除非来自上方的力量压力，否则是不可能的。\n\n各路角儿\n三甲\n医院上云的核心顾虑在于数据安全，要数据安全，一个有效措施就是管控数据流动。上云对管控数据流动带来很大挑战，就算加了堡垒机日志审计，但终究失去了对数据的管控；拉了专线面对链路故障，灾害协作时间也是不太可控。\n三甲医院必须要满足等保体系要求，机房面积，空调，UPS等，很多硬性规定，一开始就注定三甲医院会被“困在”机房里。从三甲医院信息中心主任来看，面向患者端的业务（移动支付，挂号等）可考虑上云，面向院内业务的上云动力不强。\n民营\n民营企业处境则完全不同，很乐意有上云需求，还爱数字营销。\n医生\n利益无法忽视，只要治疗方案没对患者造成严重后果，医生就很难被挑战治疗的合理性。一些医生和药企有利益关联，医生的治疗理念难推翻，哪怕AI-watson说自己只是增强智能，不是人工智能（虽然翻译过来都叫AI），不仅是原来的IBM的watson，和现今的AI，没结构，只能说是见过很多数据，概率的结果，在临床上会有意义困境\n\n结构是两个事物之间的联系，没推理就没有智能，没结构就没推理\n\n对于AI，医生持接纳、观望、鄙视三种心态\n\n顶级医生在学术研究和临床实践上，放眼国际都有话语权，会“屈尊”接受AI指导？各路大佬一点不会给科技巨头好脸色\n能力弱的医生是另一种害怕被替代的心理，行动上必是碰到负面必放大转发\n\n用户\n中国患者更愿意为手术和药品买单，认为出方案应是免费的。中国的医院更在意收入和患者数量，不太愿意提升治疗规范性，这都导致原类似watson这种AI产品找合适的付费方产生困难。\n结语\n现在AI技术重新爆发上路，在诊病方面必会有长足进步，挑战在于高质量数据，希望早日攻下这块难啃的骨头，或许寄希望先从国外突破更现实点。\n参考\n1.雷锋网,巨头的医疗软肋-五问 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"带蛤蟆先生看心理医生","url":"/%E5%B8%A6%E8%9B%A4%E8%9F%86%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%E7%9C%8B%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%8C%BB%E7%94%9F.html","content":"\n必须完成的事情，唯有靠自己才能完成，这是长大成人的蜕变!\n\n标题党简述：蛤蟆先生原本是大家眼中的开心果，如今变得郁郁寡欢，点解？看看这本智慧温暖的小书\n\n儿童自我状态\n\n行为和感受都像一个孩子，这不同于幼稚，而是像孩子一样。\n\n在心理咨询过程中最打动蛤蟆的一点是：他能得到全身心的关注，这辈子还没有人对他全神贯注过。以前他老说：你明白我说的吗？或者 我说清楚了吗？ 这些习惯用语，其实是他为自己表达不清的胡扯道歉用的。\n萌生\n儿童自我状态是由我们童年残留的遗迹搭建而成。刚出生时，我们只具备几种最基本的情感。幼年时，这些基本情感演变成更微妙复杂的行为模式，这些行为模式成为自我的核心，定义了我们一生的行为。\n某些特定的情形和场景会激发我们的基本行为模式，让我们自动做出反应，所以我们会和小时候一样去行动和感受。\n打个比喻，某些基本情感是与生俱来的，就好像红黄蓝三原色，所有婴儿都类似，当我们作为个体发展时，情绪和反应都变得越来越个人化，就好像几种原色混合在一起就变出各种微妙的色调和色差来。\n如果我们看到有人非常深情，或者发怒，悲伤和害怕，就能说这人正处在自然型儿童的状态里，与实际年龄并没有关系，只是愤怒更加复杂。\n\n大多数父母会尽最大的努力来养育孩子，可是，父母也是人，不可避免地把他们的观念和行为传递给后代。婴儿和小孩没法坐定下来计划怎样应对父母的行为。最早期的经历塑造了人格的雏形，我们无法否认也无法忘记它们。想象在一个很小的星球只住着三个人，你和其它两个人。那两个人的身高比你高一倍还多，所有事情你都得完全依赖他们，他们通常对你很好，你也用爱来回应他们。但有些时候，他们会对你生气，这让你感到害怕和不快，他们是那么高大有力，所以你感到很无助，我们学着调整自己的行为来适应这个特定的情形。\n我们都会因为某些词或某些场景触发童年的感受。当你吞下怒火，却化成了内疚。若是父母严厉挑剔，这个孩子就必须学习如何应对他们，自然行为调整为最能适应现状的行为，由自然型儿童（基本情感）进入到适应型儿童模式。\n\n顺从行为可能导致有些人学会了把依赖当成生活方式。\n\n父母自我状态\n处于父母自我状态，表现得正如自己的父母。\n困惑是学习过程的第一阶段，这说明固有知识的局限开始被打破，你要直面新的信息，挑战你现有的观念和行为模式。产生的焦虑是让你改变的动力，可能也会开启你的创造力。\n没有一种批判比自我批判更强烈，也没有一个法官比我们自己更严厉。\n你能停止自我批判吗？你能对自己好一些吗？也许最重要的问题是，你能开始爱自己吗？\n成人自我状态\n只有在成人自我状态里，才能学到关于自我的新知识。儿童状态时，你会体验到童年的感受，好的坏的都有。再现过去的情形，再次体验过去的事情，学不到任何新的东西。\n处在父母自我状态呢？当你处在父母状态时，你不是在挑剔就是在教育别人，用言行重复从父母那里学来的观念和价值观。为了让别人接受你的观念和价值观，这种确信无疑的状态，没法给新知识和新理念留出一席之地。\n没人能强迫别人进入他们的成人状态，只能鼓励他们。\n你还要为自己的不快乐责怪别人多久？\n复杂的愤怒\n愤怒是我们行为的必要组成部分，不可能完全压抑下去，想象一个煤气罐开始发烫，压力越来越大，有爆炸的危险，怎样可以迅速减压？\n第一件事就是尽可能把阀门开到最大，让气体以最大强度喷射出来。这是部分人应对愤怒的方式，瞄准一个选定的目标释放愤怒，然后再恢复常态。\n如果更小心一点的话，就慢慢打开阀门，让气体在一段时间里慢慢渗漏出来。这是一部分人学到的，不带攻击性地发火，用缓和的方式释放愤怒。\n撒泼正是表达愤怒的一种幼稚的方式，孩子非常愤怒同时又被要求说不行，你不能这样，无助。\n怄气也是发怒的一种方式，怄气的人总是绷着脸，阴沉沉的样子，安静得很反常。适应性儿童的所有行为中，怄气是最能说明怎样用时间来稀释愤怒的例子。成年人或许会因输掉一场权力斗争而生闷气，也是同样道理。怄气是输家再对强大的赢家做出反应。逐步少量降压来降低愤怒的强度。\n儿童如何释放愤怒\n从强到弱依次是：\n叛逆 -》撒泼 -》怄气 -》任性 -》郁闷 -》拖延 -》厌烦 -》退缩\n所有这些行为策略实际上都是从我们童年发展而来的防御机制，用来保护我们免于受到危害。当成年人怄气，撒泼，郁闷或者厌烦的时候，我们可以想想是在无意识或无法控制地重演童年的行为模式。其实成年人撒泼怄气是件蛮好笑的事情，这类行为告诉别人，这人是个失败者。\n人生坐标与心理游戏\n把生活比作舞台并不新鲜，或许他有自己专属的“人生剧本”，一有机会就会出演，这个想法挺新奇。也许还有另一种活法，无须跟着预先设定的剧本走，甚至可以没有剧本，或者说，可以即兴发挥。\nPLOM\n这是四个英文单词的缩写，意思是“可怜缩小的我呀”。当你扮演这个模式时，这个游戏你每局都赢了，也可以说输了，这取决于你自己的看法。你偷偷地或无意识地配合对方，来给自己制造不快，这就是在玩心理游戏。\n越是能帮助你深入自我的概念，也越容易引发激烈的对抗\n我们看到的自己，并不一定是我们喜欢的样子。从当下的你，变成你想成为的自己，必定要经历行为和态度的转变，需要付出艰辛的努力，需要勇气和决心。\n想要理解你的现在，就必须回顾你的过去，回顾你生命最早期的阶段，从出生到大约4，5岁的时候，发生的一切都对你影响重大。\n你的内在，包含着情绪和情感的心理世界，是通过你早年的经历而形成的。\n愤怒能非常有效地抵御抑郁，愤怒的人从不觉得内疚，因为他们总在怪罪别人，自卫的方式，是把自己内在的恐惧对外投射到别人身上。\n我好，你也好，其实是一种发自内心信念的行为。人本主义的信条：信自己，新他人，而不一定非要信神或超自然。\n情商\n情商和理解别人有关，一个高情商的人能辨识他人的感受，这种技能称为“共情”，情感智力中最大的技能是通过理解和回应对方的情感，与他人建立良好的关系。\n\n老师不同于咨询师的一个地方是：老师用讲解模式，而咨询师用倾听模式\n\n情感智力能让你在自我成长和完善的路上走得更远，因为它将带你从独立的个体走向共生的关系。共生性可以让你在社交和工作上与别人有效联结，协同合作。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理","亲子"]},{"title":"常用LaTeX符号","url":"/%E5%B8%B8%E7%94%A8LaTeX%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7.html","content":"\n常用符号\n\n\n\n类型\n命令\n显示效果\n说明\n\n\n\n\n加减乘除等大小\n+、-、*、/、=、&gt;、&lt;\n$±*/=&gt;&lt;$\n直接输入\n\n\n绝对值\n\\lvert| \\rvert\n$\\lvert x \\rvert$\n\\left| 兼容性不好\n\n\n不等于\n\\not= 或 \\ne\n$a\\ne b$\n\n\n\n约等于\n\\approx\n$a\\approx b$\n\n\n\n恒等于\n\\equiv\n$a\\equiv b$\n\n\n\n加减\n\\pm\n$a\\pm{b}$\n\n\n\n分式\n\\frac{a}{b}\n$\\frac{a}{b}$\n\n\n\n连分式\n\\cfrac\n$\\cfrac{1}{2+\\cfrac{3}{4+\\cfrac{5}{6+\\cdots}}}$\n\n\n\n点乘\n\\cdot\n$a\\cdot b$\n\n\n\n横三点、竖三点、斜三点\n\\cdots、\\vdots、\\ddots\n$\\cdots$、$\\vdots$、$\\ddots$\n\n\n\n除法斜线\n\\div\n$\\div$\n\n\n\n叉乘\n\\times\n$a\\times b$\n\n\n\n度数符号\n^\\circ\n$360^\\circ$\n是上标和点的组合运用\n\n\n异或\n\\oplus\n$a\\oplus b$\n\n\n\n与\n\\And\n$\\And$\n\n\n\n无穷\n\\infty\n$\\infty$\n\n\n\n角、实测角\n\\angle、\\measuredangle\n$\\angle$ $\\measuredangle$\n\n\n\n对号\n\\checkmark\n$\\checkmark$\n有很多形态，这个好记+够用\n\n\n并集\n\\cup\n$A\\cup B$\n\n\n\n交集\n\\cap\n$A\\cap{B}$\n\n\n\n属于\n\\in\n$a\\in A$\n\n\n\n不属于\n\\notin\n$a\\notin A$\n\n\n\n不小于\n\\not&lt;\n$a\\not&lt; b$\n\n\n\n子集\n\\subseteq\n$A\\subseteq B$\n\n\n\n大于等于\n\\ge\n$a\\ge b$\n\n\n\n小于等于\n\\le\n$a\\le b$\n\n\n\n正弦/反正弦\n\\sin 、\\arcsin\n$\\sin{x}$ 、$\\arcsin x$\n\n\n\n余弦\n\\cos\n$\\cos x$\n\n\n\n正切、余切\n\\tan、\\cot\n$\\tan x$、 $\\cot x$\n\n\n\n最小值、最大值\n\\min、\\max\n$\\min x$、$\\max x$\n\n\n\n右箭头\n\\rightarrow或\\to\n$\\to$\n\n\n\n左箭头、双向箭头，推导箭头，长箭头\n\\leftarrow \\leftrightarrow \\Rightarrow \\longrightarrow\n$\\leftarrow$ $\\leftrightarrow$ $\\Rightarrow$ $\\longrightarrow$\n\n\n\n上确界、下确界\n\\sup、\\inf\n$\\sup M$、$\\inf M$\n\n\n\n上下标\nx^{y}、x_y\n$x^{y}$ $x_y$\n\n\n\n向量\n\\vec\n$\\vec{x}$\n长式子展示居中太短\n\n\n长剪头向量\n\\overrightarrow\n$\\overrightarrow{a + b}$\n\n\n\n上划线、下划线\n\\overline、\\underline\n$\\overline{abc}$、$\\underline{abc}$\n\n\n\n导数\n^\\prime 或 ’\n$x^\\prime$或$x’$\n\n\n\n求和\n\\sum_{i=1}^n\n$\\sum_{i=1}^n$\n\n\n\n积分\n\\int_a^b\n$\\int_a^b$\n\n\n\n极限\n\\lim_{x \\to \\infty}\n$\\lim_{x \\to \\infty}$\n\n\n\n组合数\nC_n^k\n$C_{n}^{k}$\n\n\n\n指数对数\n\\sqrt、\\sqrt[3]、\\log、\\ln\n$\\sqrt{x}$$、\\sqrt[3]{x}$、$\\log{x}$、$\\ln{x}$\n\n\n\n上括号、下括号\n\\overbrace、\\underbrace\n$\\overbrace{1+2+\\cdots+100}^{100\\text{个数}}$$\\underbrace{1+2+\\cdots+100}$\n\n\n\n存在\n\\exists\n$\\exists$\n\n\n\n任何\n\\forall\n$\\forall$\n\n\n\n\n拼音四调\n\n\n\n方法一\n数学环境-更简洁\n\n\n\n\n\n一声（阴平）\n\\bar\n$\\bar{a}$\n\n\n二声（阳平）\n\\acute\n$\\acute{a}$\n\n\n三声（上声）\n\\check\n$\\check{a}$\n\n\n四声（去声）\n\\grave\n$\\grave{i}$\n\n\n\n\n\n\n方法二\n普通文本环境\n在此 blog 上不生效\n\n\n\n\n一声（阴平）\n\\text{\\=a}\n$\\text{=a}$\n\n\n二声（阳平）\n\\text{\\'a}\n$\\text{'a}$\n\n\n三声（上声）\n\\text{\\va}\n$\\text{\\v{a}}$\n\n\n四声（去声）\n\\text{\\`i}\n$\\text{`i}$\n\n\n\n空格与换行\n\n\n\nblog 上\n只有 \\quad和\\qquad正常\n换行因转义问题展示异常\n\n\n\n\n窄空格，$\\frac{1}{6}M$的宽度\n\\,\n$a\\,b$\n\n\n中等空格\n\\:\n$a:{b}$\n\n\n大空格\n\\;\n$a\\;b$\n\n\n字母 M 宽度空格\n\\quad\n$a\\quad{b}$\n\n\n两个 M 宽度空格\n\\qquad\n$a\\qquad{b}$\n\n\n缩进一个窄空格\n\\!\n$a!{b}$\n\n\n换行\n两个\\\n$\\A$\n\n\n\n字体\n\n\n\n还能控制字体和颜色\n有点意思\n但#rgb在此 blog 中不行，#导致错误，单词颜色可以\n\n\n\n\n黑板报粗体-只对大写字母生效\n\\mathbb\n$\\mathbb{FONT}$\n\n\n粗体\n\\mathbf\n$\\mathbf{ABC}$\n\n\n罗马花体\n\\mathscr\n$\\mathscr{ABC}$\n\n\n罗马正体\n\\mathrm\n$\\mathrm{ABC}$\n\n\n哥特体-德文尖角体\n\\mathfrak\n$\\mathfrak{ABC}$\n\n\n意大利体-斜体\n\\mathit\n$\\mathit{ABC}$\n\n\n无衬线体\n\\mathsf\n$\\mathsf{ABC}$\n\n\n打字机体\n\\mathtt\n$\\mathtt{ABC}$\n\n\n手写体-美术字\n\\mathcal\n$\\mathcal{ABC}$\n\n\n颜色\n\\color{rgb}\n$\\color{yellow}{ABC}$\n\n\n\n方程，公式\n\n因 Blog 系统的 bug，两个\\换行被迫变成 4个 \\\n\n无编号多公式\n$$\n\\begin{align*}\nE = mc^2 \\\\\ne^{i\\pi} + 1 = 0\n\\end{align*}\n$$\n方程组\n$$\n\\begin{cases}\nx + y - z = 0 \\\\\n2x - y + z = 2 \\\\\nx + y + 2z = 4\n\\end{cases}\n$$\n矩阵行列式\n\n矩阵中 &amp; 分隔元素，\\\\ 进行换\n\n行列式\n$$\n\\begin{vmatrix}\na_{11} &amp; a_{12} &amp; \\cdots &amp; a_{1n} \\\\\na_{21} &amp; a_{21} &amp; \\cdots &amp; a_{2n} \\\\\n\\vdots &amp; \\vdots &amp; \\ddots &amp; \\vdots \\\\\na_{n1} &amp; a_{n2} &amp; \\cdots &amp; a_{nn}\n\\end{vmatrix}\n$$\n小括号矩阵\n$$\n\\begin{pmatrix}\na_{11} &amp; a_{12} &amp; a_{13} \\\\\na_{21} &amp; a_{22} &amp; a_{23} \\\\\na_{31} &amp; a_{32} &amp; a_{33}\n\\end{pmatrix}\n$$\n含值方框的方括号矩阵\n$$\n\\begin{bmatrix}\n\\boxed{-1} &amp; 3 &amp; 0 &amp; 2 \\\\\n0 &amp; \\boxed{1} &amp; 3 &amp; 1 \\\\\n0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \\boxed{2} \\\\\n0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0\n\\end{bmatrix}\\\n$$\n技术背景\n$\\LaTeX$ 是一种基于 $\\TeX$ 的专业排版系统，适合学术论文、技术报告、包含复杂数学公式的文档，核心思想是内容与格式分离，用户只专注于文档内容和结构，排版细节由 $\\LaTeX$ 自动处理。它由计算机科学家 Leslie Lamport 在 1980 年代开发，旨在简化 $\\TeX$ 的使用（提供了更高层的文档结构，如章节，参考文献，降低了使用门槛）。\n$\\TeX$是底层的排版引擎，提供了强大的排版功能和灵活性。$\\LaTeX$是$\\TeX$的一种格式，是建立在$\\TeX$基础上的宏语言。每一个$\\LaTeX$命令实际上都会转换成几个甚至上百个$\\TeX$命令。普通用户无需了解这些复杂的转换过程，就像使用编译好的函数库和模板一样，$\\LaTeX$ 通过定义许多命令和模板，使用户可快速得到漂亮的排版结果\n\n$\\TeX$排版系统是 Donald E. Kunth于 1977 年在校对其著作《计算机程序设计艺术》时，发现出版社使用的计算机排版系统（取代活字印刷）生成的数学公式质量严重下降，排版粗糙且不美观。作为一个注重细节的作者，无法接受这种低质量的结果，遂用 10 年时间开发完善了一个能实现专业级印刷质量的排版系统$\\TeX$。\n尽管现代排版工具众多，$\\TeX$ 仍然因其严谨性和可重复性，在学术论文等需精确排版的场景广泛使用。\n\n参考\n1.博客园 Latex 公式速查 ↩2.CSDN Latex数学公式符号大全（超详细） ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"平均预期寿命理解","url":"/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD.html","content":"\n根据国家卫健委于8月29日发布的《2023年我国卫生健康事业发展统计公报》，2023年我国居民人均预期寿命达到78.6岁。而根据七普数据，2020年我国居民人均预期寿命为77.93岁，其中男性为75.37岁，女性为80.88岁。\n人均预期寿命又称为平均预期寿命，是指按照当前的分年龄组死亡率水平下，活到某一年龄x岁以后，平均还能继续生存的年数。如果不特别说明，平均预期寿命是指0岁人口的平均预期寿命。\n\n换句话简单说，指的是预期 2023 年出生的人口他们的寿命，是78.6 岁，不是已经长大的那批人。\n\n平均预期寿命（指0岁预期寿命）并不是预测现在出生的人将来能活到多少岁，而是说，假设有一批人出生后每一年都按照当年的分年龄组死亡概率度过一生，那么这批人预期能够活多少岁。\n\n平均预期寿命与总和生育率这两个概念有相似之处，都是采用假设一代人法。总和生育率是假设有一批刚进入育龄期的妇女，她们在整个育龄期内（一般指15-49岁）按照某一年的各个分年龄组生育率来生育，当她们度过育龄期后（即过了49岁之后），平均每个妇女在育龄期所生育的孩子数。\n平均预期寿命的数据通常是从生命表中计算得来的。按照年龄组组距的不同，生命表分为完全生命表和简略生命表。完全生命表是一岁一组，简略生命表通常是五岁一组。按照性别的不同，生命表分为男性生命表、女性生命表、男女平均生命表。\n以 2023 年中国人口生命表来解读\n下表是2023年中国人口完全生命表（男女平均）的详细数据，数据来源是联合国于今年7月发布的《世界人口展望2024版》\n\n第一列是年龄 x，第二列是尚存人数 I(x)，第三列是死亡人数 d(x)，第四列是死亡概率 q(x)\n\n生命表中，通常假定l（0）=100000（即10万人）\n$l（x）- d（x）= l（x+1）$ ：当年尚存人数 - 当年死亡人数 = 来年尚存人数\n$q（x）= d（x）/ l（x）$：死亡概率=当年死亡人数/当年尚存人数\n\n第五列是生存年人数 L(x)，是把人数和存活时间联系起来计算的一个复合指标，例如，1个人活了2年，就是2人年；2个人各活了1年，也是2人年\n\n$L（x）=[l（x）+ l（x+1）]/2$ ： 生存年人数 = (当年尚存人数 + 来年尚存人数)/2\n\n第六列是生存人年数累计T（x），是对生存人年数L（x）的累计, T（x）是从高年龄组向低年龄组进行累计，上表中最高年龄组为100岁，所以T（100）= L（100）=723人\n\n$T（x）= L（x）+ L（x+1）+…+ L（100）$ ：生存人年数累计 = 当年生存年人数 +…+ 100岁生存年人数\n$T（x+1）= T（x）- L（x）$：来年生存人年数累计 = 当年生存人年数累计 - 当年生存年人数\n故 $T（x）= T（x+1）+L（x）$\n\n第七列是预期寿命e（x），通常说的平均预期寿命是指0岁预期寿命，60 岁的预期寿命则是e（60）。 x岁人口的预期寿命并不等于0岁预期寿命减去x岁。例如，60岁人口的预期寿命并不等于（77.95-60）岁，而是等于e（60）= T（60）/ l（60）= 1946794/ 90881≈21.42岁，意思是说，按照上述生命表的分年龄死亡概率，活到60岁的人，平均来说，还有21.42年的余寿，活到 70 岁的人，则平均还有13.77年余寿\n\n $e（x）= T（x）/ l（x）$ ： 预期寿命 = 生存人年数累计 / 当年尚存人数\n0岁预期寿命e（0）= T（0）/ l（0）=7795292/100000≈77.95岁\n50岁预期寿命e（50）= T（50）/ l（50）= 2882091/ 95556≈30.16岁\n\n上表的最高年龄组是100岁，并不是说最高寿命是100岁。从上表来看，100岁人口的预期寿命是1.69岁，也就是说，能够活到100岁的人，平均来说，还有1.69年的余寿。当然这只是平均数，实际上，有些人可能到101岁就去世了，有些人可能活到105岁才去世。\n平均预期寿命仅与各个分年龄组的死亡概率有直接关系，但与人口的年龄结构无直接关系。我们可以通过预期寿命，衡量当下健康水平，指导医保改革。你若想问平均死亡年龄，官方会说一堆的说辞，还可能会说重要的不是知道，而是改善，它并不是一个科学的统计指标，无法精确评估社会的健康状况，嘿嘿。\n平均死亡年龄（是当年所有死者年龄的平均值）则跟人口结构有关，比如说老龄化的社会平均死亡年龄则高。虽然官方不公布，但了解这个数字的方式也很多，例如养老金『计发月数』，还有火葬场的统计数据。火葬场数据看似全面，但忽略了死亡原因和生前的健康状况，无法真实代表死亡年龄分布。\n生存年龄平均值/中位数\n全国殡仪馆火化平均年龄，只有 67 岁。80%的人在 80 岁前去世。\n\n男性平均火化年龄 63 岁，中位数是67.7 岁（可戏称上午退休，下午火化。也意味着约有半数的男人没有活到退休年龄）\n女性不到 68 岁，中位数 79.7 岁\n\n谁也不知道谁被平均，珍惜当下。\n参考\n1.腾讯网 平均预期寿命不是平均死亡年龄 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"开源许可证","url":"/%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81.html","content":"\n2023年开源软件的下载使用达到了4万亿次，以空前的力量推动软件生态的发展与创新。这里面下载最突出的领域语言是JavaScript，能占到1.5万亿\n开宗明义\n开源软件\n既继承了“自由”软件所提倡的知识共享理念，同时又允许人们以专利的形式从知识产品中谋取利益，从而保护人们生产、创造知识产品的积极性。开源软件使用者必须按照License的规定履行相应的开源义务。例如使用声明义务：在对外分发产品时，需附上声明文档，注明产品所使用的开源软件名称、版权、License内容等信息。还有些有代码开源义务。\n误区\n把代码放网上算不算开源软件\n是否开源取决于源代码发布的授权协议\n不指定任何开源许可证\n\n\n没有明确注明所适用的开源许可证，则应用项目作者司法管辖区的“默认”版权。\n\n\n没有明确的许可证，你，项目的作者，事实上并未放弃法律授予的任何权利。（即：一般作品中没声明协议的默认为copyright的，也就是版权保留）\n\n\n许可证大分类\n\n\n许可证大分类，强度由高到低\n\n\n\n\n宽松式（permissive）许可证\n弱Copyleft（许可复制权，著作权保留） 许可证「弱著作权」\n强Copyleft（许可复制权，著作权保留） 许可证「强著作权」\n\n\n\n\nBSD (Berkeley Software Distribution)MITApache 2\nLesser GPL (LGPL) Mozilla Public License (MPL) Eclipse Public License (EPL) Common Development and Distribution License (CDDL)\nSSPL Affero GPL (AGPL) GPL\n\n\n\n要求对软件的修改，重新分发必须按获得该软件的许可证进行开源，但合并这些软件代码的大型产品可以称为私有作品。\n要求对软件的修改和扩展，必须按照该软件许可证进行开源，且不得违背原作品的限制条款\n\n\n\n可以理解为仅要求修改的部分开源，不『传染』整个项目\nSSPL要求托管 MongoDB实例的云计算公司要么获取商业许可证，要么向社区开源其服务代码，包括支持这个软件使用的后台管理平台软件。相比之下，原来使用的 AGPLv3 只声明要将修改的代码回馈社区，没有涉及到托管即分发，已经跨越了OSI 定义的开源的概念，迈入了&quot;源代码可用&quot;的范畴\n\n\n\n\nCopyright: 复制权，印刷术发明催生的印刷出版之权。用户只有使用权，没有其它如复制，重新修改发布的权利。\nCopyleft：著作权。版权归原作者所有，其它权利可自由决定与别人分享自己的作品。1984年发表《GNU宣言》，抨击封闭源码行为，也创造了该词。还分强著作权和弱著作权。\n\n特性：意味着如果你修改软件并重新发布，必须将修改后的代码以原许可证方式发布，保证了代码的开放性和开源性。\n\n\n\n\n代表性开源协议的价值主张\n\n\n\n价值主张\n协议\n权利义务\n\n\n\n\n我只想安心的写代码,其他随别人怎么搞\nMIT\n署名作者，其它随意（别删了我的名字）允许他人修改源代码后再闭源，不用对修改过的文件做说明，且二次开发的软件可以使用原作者的名字做营销\n\n\n同MIT，但需尊重代码作者的著作权\nBSD\nBSD 3-Clause $\\approx$ MIT + 禁止用作者名背书（但可以提及其贡献）\n\n\n我保留专利，但你们可以随便用\nApache\n授权使用者免费使用个人专利，额外的简易专利授权，这点是与MIT的区别点使用者必须放置协议说明使用者需对修改部分声明禁止用作者的名号进行商业广告\n\n\n我希望代码生根发芽遍地开花\nGPL\n使用者需遵循相同的协议进行开源GPL/LGPL都保障原作者的知识产权，避免有人利用开源代码复制并开发类似的产品\n\n\n\n和MIT有些类似的BSD同样是鼓励代码重用，但需尊重代码作者的著作权\n软件供应链脱钩断链风险\n伴随国际形势变迁，越来越多组织声明将遵循美国出口管制法律的约束，且蔓延到了开源领域，当时两大引爆事件：\n\n全球最大开源软件基金会ASF（Apache 软件基金会）的管理办法中明确说明其遵循美国出口法律，所以它旗下所有项目亦受到美国出口法律的管制。而ASF旗下开源项目名单中有很多耳熟能详的项目：如Kafka，Solr，Hadoop，Spark等\n全球最大源码托管平台GitHub表示：GitHub.com，GitHub Enterprise Server及你上传到任一产品的信息可能受美国出口管制法律的约束，包括美国出口管理条例（EAR），且实际已对古巴与朝鲜等地实施限制\n\n消息一出，国内外开源界议论纷纷，关于开源生态如何自立，做到在无法与国际接轨的情况下能健康发展的措施也被提上议程。\n华为在加快国产开源操作系统鸿蒙的开发，看到国内第一个开源软件基金会从紧急筹备到建立，也看到第一个国产开源协议木兰的诞生。\n正本清源\n自由软件中分离出了开源概念\n\n自由软件(Free Software)：此处的free强调的是自由，而不是价格上的免费。支持自由软件开发的非盈利组织为FSF(Free Software Foundation)。自由软件是指授权用户自由共享，学习和修改权利的软件，名称在上世纪80年代创造。你可以对此类软件做任何事情，甚至改进从中获利。\n免费软件(Freeware): 与开源和自由软件不同，免费软件给最终用户提供了最小自由度。虽可被免费使用，但源码可能并不对外公开。\n\n自由软件是一个比开源软件更严格的概念，因此所有自由软件都是开放源代码的，但不是所有的开源软件都能被称为“自由”。\n\nMIT，GPLv2，Apache v2，BSD都算是自由软件的许可证类型。\n\n“开放源代码软件运动”是一个主要由程序工程师及其它电脑用户参与的声势浩大的运动。它是自由软件运动的一个分支，但两者差别并不明显。一般而言，自由软件运动是基于政治及哲学思想（有时被称为所谓黑客文化）的理想主义运动，而开放源代码运动则主要注重程序本身的质量提升。为了避免这些对于「自由」的探讨，而只专注于技术，在自己的领域做得更好，有人把「开源」这个概念分离了出来。\n许可证\n软件协议可分为开源和商业\n\n商业协议，或者叫法律声明，许可协议，每个软件会有自己的一套行文，由软件作者或专门律师撰写，因涉及到以后侵权打官司这种事情，行文史非常严谨而讲究的，读起来很晦涩难懂\n开源协议。开源并不等于免费，不等于没有约束。虽相对商业协议更加简明，但对于很多人来说还是像在看天书一样\n\n大部分人都希望作品能被多数人分享查阅，这样不仅提高自己业界知名度，同时也方便了有需要的人。但代码一旦被贴出来，任何人都可看到并获取，之后发生的事情就无法控制了。所以为了公开分享你的代码，同时又让你对代码保留一定权利，在作品中声明一个许可协议是非常有必要的。\n开源 != 免费\n开源，是指公开源代码，但也并不代表就是免费。有时，开源也可以作为一种商业模式存在。\n\n提供订阅服务 | 捐赠打赏\n高级功能付费\n提供云服务\n生态价值\n获得声誉谁说不是一种商业模式呢\n\n开源的非经济利益\ngantt\n    title 开源的非经济利益认定（基于53份问卷）\n    dateFormat SSS\n    axisFormat %L\n        个人声望: 000, 043\n        产品可见性:000,031\n        建立行业标准:000,017\n        挑战的乐趣:000,038\n        职业发展:000,028\n        扩大用户基础:000,022\n        社区中开发者支持:000,031\n        其它:000,002\n开源流派的理念比喻\n开源组织是共产主义社会，商业公司联盟则是资本主义世界。\n共产主义靠共产国际的会议决议来协作行动，商业公司则凭无数的商务协议组成利益共同体。理论上共产主义更先进，现实中总是输给一盘散沙，各怀鬼胎的资本主义世界。\nApache &amp; GPL是两种加入共产主义社会的方式\n\nGPL是宣布自己国家也共产了，拒绝一切资本主义的东东\nAapache则是自己来参加共产国际大会，分享经验，但是走独立自主的道路\n共产主义天然是国际主义的，终极目标是要看到环球遍是赤旗，而不是希望成员国直接为其贡献GDP\n选择成为Aapache体系的国家，的确消耗一部分优秀党员为其效力，又无法直接计入共产国际的GDP中，因为他们也要为自己国家生存发展考虑，不可能断绝与资本主义的一切来往，但终究是让共产主义理念得以发扬光大了。\n\n衍生作品\nDerivative Work是一个关键法律概念，它决定了许可证『传染性』范围，即修改或组合开源代码后，新作品是否必须遵循原许可证的开源要求。\n衍生作品指基于原作品进行修改/翻译，或与其它作品结合后，整体可被认定为原作品的修订或衍生版本的作品。判断标准：\n\n代码融合程度：是否直接修改、重构或扩展了原开源代码的功能结构\n\n直接修改源代码：对原代码功能，结构、逻辑进行增减或重构。如修复 bug，添加新功能，优化算法等\n\n\n功能依赖性：新作品是否必须依赖原开源代码才能运行核心功能\n\n代码组合（形成新作品）：将原始代码与其它代码（无论开源或专有）组合成一个新项目，如将开源库A嵌入到你的项目B中，形成新系统 C\n静态链接/动态链接：动态链接不同许可证规定不同\n\n\n非代码衍生形式：文档、配置文件、脚本若基于原始作品创作，也可能被视为衍生作品\n\n多个独立程序打包分发，只要未共享内存/直接通信，通常不视为衍生作品。\n如何规避衍生品风险\n\n明确隔离\n\n通过进程间通信（如 Shell 调用）/网络调用开源工具，而非代码级链接\n输出品与工具代码物理分离（如生成 PDF 后独立分发）\n\n\n选择宽松许可证：若需代码级集成，选用 MIT/BSD/Apache等无传染性的许可证工具\n架构设计：如将 GPL 代码封装为独立服务，闭源程序通过 API 交互\n\n开源许可证的市场\n从编程语言看\n从编程语言开源许可证分布进行统计\n\nC/C++ 主要使用MIT，BSD，Apache许可证，GPL/LGPL约占16%，整体使用更严格\nJava主要使用Apache，MIT许可证，GPL/LGPL约占1%，整体使用更宽\n\n\n市占率\npie showData\n    title GitHub上开源许可证使用现状\n    \"MIT\" : 51\n    \"Apache-2.0\" : 15\n    \"GPL-2.0\" : 10\n    \"GPL-3.0\" : 10\n    \"BSD-3-Clause\" : 5\n    \"BSD-2-Clause\" : 2\n    \"Unlicense\" : 1\n    \"AGPL-3.0\" : 1\n    \"CC0-1.0\" : 1\n    \"EPL-1.0\" : 1\n    \"LGPL-2.1\" : 1\n    \"MPL-2.0\" : 1\n    \"ISC\" : 1\n    \"Artistic-2.0\" : 0\n%%{init:{\"pie\":{\"textPosition\":0.9}}}%%\npie showData title 开源项目许可证大类型分布\n    \"宽松型\" : 3886\n    \"弱限制型\" : 114\n    \"限制型\" : 70\n许可证简洁区别示意\n\n对于网络上的图，对LGPL的表达缩略的并不恰当，故不放置在此flowchart图中了。对LGPL感兴趣的可去查阅[5]\n静态链接至LGPL的代码/库，还是有一些衍生品行为要求的\n\n%%{init: {\"flowchart\": {\"defaultRenderer\": \"elk\"}} }%%\ngraph TB\n    A{修改后可闭源?}--是-->B{修改过的文件放置著作权声明}\n    A--否-->C{采用相同许可证?}\n    C--是-->D(GPL许可证)\n    C--否-->E{对修改之处提供说明文档}\n    E--是-->F(Mozilla许可证)\n    B-->|是|H(Apache许可证)\n    B-->|否|I{衍生作品是否可用原作者名作广告?}\n    I-->|是|J(MIT许可证BSD2句版)\n    I-->|否|K(BSD许可证3句版)\n\n\n\n许可证种类\n要在源码里包含原许可证\n允许商业使用\n允许修改再发布\n修改后的源码强制继续开源\n\n\n\n\nBSD\n是\n是（不能用原作者相关信息进行宣传）\n是\n否\n\n\nMIT\n是\n是\n是\n否\n\n\nApache\n是\n是（禁止使用其商标与作者的相关信息进行商业行为）\n是\n否\n\n\nGPL\n是\n是（商用代码要公开）\n是\n只要源码中使用GPL的代码，都要开源\n\n\nLGPL\n是\n是\n是\n若用户只是对LGPL的程序库进行调用而不是包含其源码时，无需开源；反之需要\n\n\nMozilla（MPL）\n是\n是\n是\n含有MPL许可证的代码放在单独文件里，只需开源这个文件。其它新增的文件无需开源\n\n\n\n\n\nMPL：允许重发布，免费修改，但要求修改后的代码版权归软件的发起者。这种授权维护了商业软件的利益，它要求基于这种软件的修改无偿贡献版权给该软件。这样，围绕该软件的所有代码版权都集中于开发发起人手中。但MPL允许修改及无偿使用，对链接也没有要求。\n\n\nEPL：CPL（Common Public License 1.0） 是 IBM 提出的开源协议，主要用于 IBM 或跟 IBM 相关的开源软件/项目中（例如，Eclipse、Open Laszlo 等）。已被 EPL 替代，EPL是一个与CPL相类似的许可证，任何扩展自 Eclipse 源码的代码也必须是开源的\n\n\nCDDL是MPL的扩展协议，它允许公共版权使用，无专利费，并提供专利保护，可集成于商业软件中，允许自行发布许可\n\n\n详细区别和选择对照\n\n许可证概念词汇释义\n\n\n\n商用：用于商业用途，不论使用成果是否对外销售或盈利，只要使用主体为营利组织，因使用行为有助于主体经营，均视为”商用“\n\n公司及员工使用任何开源软件都属于商业使用，如将开源模型用于内部模型训练，不对外推广，但因为公司为盈利组织，此种情形仍属于商业行为\n\n\n\n分发：通过任何媒介向他人提供程序、文档、数据等作品的行为。当今时代最为常见的就是手机App。\n\n传递副本：将作品拷贝提供给他人，可以是物理介质形式（如光盘或U盘）或以电子方式（如电子邮件，文件共享或网站下载）传递\n公开展示：在公共场所或网络上公开展示作品，使他人能获得访问、下载或复制的机会\n提供访问途径：在网络上提供作品的访问途径，使他人可通过远程访问、下载或复制作品\n包含在产品中：将作品捆绑在硬件或软件作品中，出售或分发给他人\n\n\n\n公开来源：分发传播时，需提供该开源软件本身，修改版或包含该组件及其修改版的新软件的源代码（不同协议对于披露范围要求可能存在差异）\n\n\n许可证声明：传播时必须包含授权许可证和版权声明的源文件副本，不需要编译成二进制文件\n\n\n修改记录：必须有文档说明对代码的修改记录\n\n\n商标使用：许可证表明表示不授权商标权，禁止使用开发者的名义或名称进行宣传，或许可证暗含表明不授权商标权\n\n\n质量保证：开发者不对该开源软件质量提供任何保证或承诺\n\n\n免责声明：阐述开发者不对用户使用该开源软件而带来的任何问题负责。\n\n\n\n许可证权利、义务、限制、案例 对照表\n\n\n    \n        \n            类型\n            权利(Permissions)\n            条件-义务(Conditions)\n            限制(Limitations)\n            案例\n        \n    \n    \n        \n          \t许可证归类\n            许可证\n            商用(&radic;)\n            传播分发(&radic;)\n            修改(&radic;)\n            专利使用\n            自用(&radic;)\n            公开源码(&otimes;)\n            许可和版权声明(&radic;)\n            网络即分发(&otimes;)\n            相同许可证(&otimes;)\n            修改记录\n            免责声明(&otimes;)\n            商标使用\n            质量保证(&otimes;)\n            著名案例\n        \n        \n          \tCopyLeft\n            GPLv2.1\n            \n            \n            \n            无声明，未提及\n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            Linux内核、MySQL、Git\n        \n      \n            GPLv3\n            \n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            bash、gzip、wget\n        \n      \n            AGPL\n            \n            \n            \n            无声明，未提及\n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            MongoDB(18.10前)、Tdengine（时序数据库）\n        \n      \n            LGPLv2.1\n            \n            \n            \n            跟随对应GPL版本\n            \n            弱传染\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            mariadb客户端动态库，glib，7-zip\n        \n      \n            Mozilla 2.0-MPL\n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            弱传染\n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            Firefox、LibreOffice\n        \n        \n          \tPermissive\n            MIT\n            \n            \n            \n            无声明，未提及\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            Bootstrap、jQuery、Nodejs、Rails\n        \n      \n            Apache\n            \n            \n            \n            &radic;\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            &radic;\n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            Spring、Hadoop、Kylin、Kafka、netty\n        \n      \n            BSD\n            \n            \n            \n            2句版未提及3句版&otimes;4句原始版未提及\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            chromium、Nginx、FreeBSD、Redis、Django\n        \n      \n          \t商业\n            BSL 1.1\n            额外限制\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            mariadb、CockroachDB、Akka\n        \n      \n            FAIR SOURCE LICENSE\n            人数限制\n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            GitLab、WIRED、FirstRead\n        \n      \n            Sun Software LICENSE Agreement\n            商用须付费\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            \n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            &otimes;\n            \n            &otimes;\n            \n            com.sun.media:jai-codec\n        \n    \n\n典型开源许可证解读\nBSD多版本\nBSD许可证有三种版本：初版的4句版许可证，“修订版”3句版许可证和“简化版”2句版许可证。4句版BSD许可证和3句版增加了对广告，名称重用的更多要求。如果你想保护自己的产品或品牌名称，可以考虑使用这两版许可证。\n\n被许可方不得使用原作者名称或商标来为衍生作品背书（3句版和4句版BSD）\n被许可方必须在提及此项目功能或用途的所有广告材料中致谢软件开发者和伯克利大学（4句版BSD，绑定伯克利大学，反倒不利于许可证走出伯克利，因此才被修订吧），让我们看看原文：All advertising materials mentioning features or use of this software must display the following acknowledgement: This product includes software developed by the University of California, Berkeley and its contributors.\n\n这三种版本都在使用理念上高度接近MIT许可证。可以将2句版BSD许可证 =MIT许可证\nBSD vs MIT\n与MIT类似，但版本太多，条款不够清晰简洁\n不得使用版权所有者的姓名或其贡献者的姓名来推广\nApache\nApache软件基金会起始于1999年，由一群在网上协作为网络服务器打源码补丁的人创建，源码最终被称为Apache Httpd项目。在2004年，开发了成熟的Apache 2.0许可证，成为世界上最受欢迎的开源许可证之一，授予用户使用，修改和分发等权限，且拥有非常明确的专利权，使得开发者能轻松使用和重用代码许可。\nApache软件基金会是一个公共慈善机构，服务于广大公众的最大利益，使命是为公众免费提供软件。使用邮件列表来作为讨论和决策的常规工具，因为其他人要一直往回翻阅去了解整个经过。\n与MIT许可证下前端项目扎堆的情况不同，采用Apache许可证的项目涵盖的前后端，DevOps，大数据处理，深度学习等各种类型的系统，框架和工具。\n虽然有各种类型的许可证，但不得不说MIT和Apache两个许可证加起来，就囊括很大一部分(66%)我们耳熟能详的项目了。\nApache与MIT的区别：\n\n是否要求明确声明修改了哪些部分\n是否明确限制商标使用权，Apache许可证明确限制了商标使用权。例如你在Spring Boot源码基础上做了修改，作为你自己的产品发行，你的产品就不能叫做“Spring Boot”之类的名字了。\n许可证长度是MIT的10倍左右，描述精确的多，当然你也可以说MIT最自由，所以不用啰嗦，这也是MIT许可证流行的一个重要原因。\n\nMPL\nMPL是Netscape的Mozilla小组为其开源软件项目设计的软件许可证，其出现的重要原因是，Netscape公司认为GPL许可证没有很好平衡开发者对源码的需求和他们利用源码获得的利益。相比GPL而言，MPL有如下不同之处：\n\nMPL对“发布”的定义是以“源代码”方式发布的文件，就为借鉴别人的代码用作自己商业软件的开发行为留了一个豁口\nMPL允许将经过MPL许可证获得的源码同自己其它类型的代码混合得到自己的软件程序\n\nCreative Commons 知识共享协议\nCreative Commons (CC) 许可协议并不能说是真正的开源协议，大多被用于设计项目/文档项目上，一个 CC 许可协议具有四个基本部分，这几个部分可以单独起作用，也可以组合起来。下面是这几部分的简介：\n\n署名(BY)：作品必须附有作品的归属，如此厚，作品可被修改，分发，复制和其它用途（相当于只要人们能维护你的名誉，对你的作品怎么使用都行）\n相同方式共享(SA)：可被修改，分发或其它操作，但所有衍生品都要置于CC许可协议下\n非商业用途（NC）：可被修改，分发等，但不能用于商业目的(获得商业优势或金钱回报)\n禁止衍生品（ND）：您不可以分发衍生品，限制了他人参与协作，用于 Pull Request 的 fork 也可以看作一种「分发」。\n\n大多数比较严格的CC协议会声明“署名权，非商业用途，禁止衍生”条款，这意味着你可自由分享这个作品，但不能改变它和对其收费，且必须声明作品的归属。这个许可协议非常有用，它可让你的作品传播出去，但又可对作品的使用保留或完全的控制。\nCC0 1.0许可证，使用该许可证代表作者放弃了关于作品的一切权利。\nGPL族\nGPL全称是GNU General Public License协议，核心是只要在一个软件中使用（类库引用、修改代码即衍生代码）GPL协议的产品，则该软件产品必须也采用GPL协议，即开源。这就是所谓GPL协议的传染性，商业软件或开发者对代码进行集成及作为类库进行二次开发，在进行再发布时需伴随GPL协议。\n但它还有两个广受关注的属性：可修改 &amp; 可盈利\n\n可修改：可自由修改增删功能，或在别的项目中使用部分代码。没任何问题，唯一的要求是，使用了这段代码的项目也必须使用GPL协议\n可盈利：可在分发软件时收费，但必须在收费前，向你的客户提供该软件的GPL许可协议，以便让他们知道，他们可从别的渠道免费获得这份软件，以及你收费的理由。\n\n在GPL下，你通过物理媒介分发软件，必须将源码一起分发，告知用户以发行成本费用提供源码CD是被允许的，CD上给源码链接，放在网站上免费下载源码倒是不行的。\nGPLv3 vs GPLv2\n\nGPLv3对类似TiVo这种硬件（执行DRM的平台）做了要求。在不少软件大牛的眼中，GPLv3是政治化的，所以他们抵触[2]，如linus\nGPLv2和v3是不兼容的，两者在”不能添加任何额外的限制“一条上是冲突的，所以不能合并 两种协议的代码在一起\n\n\nTivo中包含了带有GPL许可证的软件，按照copyleft原则，这些软件应允许用户随意修改使用。Tivo也的确允许用户修改，只是修改后的软件不能直接在原有硬件上运行了。此种做法被称为Tivoization，指通过硬件限制或DRM使用户无法在原有硬件上运行修改过的代码的现象\n\n理念的冲突\nLinux的GPLv2哲学：我们给你源码，你给我你的修改，扯平了 [源码可见并确保持续改进]。\n自由软件基金会认为Tivo的做法在剥夺自由，应该允许用户”刷机“绕开DRM。linus不这么认为：\n\n他认为生产硬件去锁定其中的软件，是硬件提供者的决定，并没有违反软件互哺前进的大前提。当你禁止DRM坏的用途，也意味着好的用途也不被允许。\n如果想要反对DRM，应该是去支持知识共享运动（the creative commons movement）而不是在软件上做政治正确的文章（内容产业本就倾向于垄断，上游的内容垄断才是症结所在）。\n\n分歧导致 开源(open source) 这个词从自由软件中分裂了出去。linus代表的开源阵营并不反对专有软件，其本人自比奥本海默（因成果被用来制造原子弹而深切自责），拒绝涉猎政治。且GPLv3条款自然会限制linux在嵌入式或消费类电子产品的发展，这显然是linus不能接受的\nAGPL\n更严格的GPL，防止钻空子，通过网络与GPL开源项目交互，也需要提供源代码。辩解称socket/http通讯，本质与过程（函数)调用没区别。\n除了AGPL，其它许可证都规定只有在”分发“时，才需要遵守许可证的要求。不分发，则尚不实质约束。简单说，分发就是指将版权作品从一个人转移到另一个人，这意味着，如果你自己使用，不提供给其他人，就没有分发。另外，这里的人也可指法人。当使用方是公司，只在公司内部使用，也暂无版权再转移。\n云服务（SAAS）是否构成”分发“呢？答案是不构成，此种情况不必提供源码。AGPL打击的就是这种钻空子行为，它规定云服务也必须提供源码。\nLGPL\n\n使用LGPL的一般都是库，以API的形式向用户提供某些功能（facility），动静态库都有，且都提供源码\n\nGPL的发明人Stallman，是自由软件的死忠，为何还允许别人用了自己的东西还能闭源？\n他并不喜欢LGPL，但这是争取用户的办法，自由软件库要和其他库竞争。如果其它库允许别人闭源，而他不允许，显然占下风啊。这就是为何对GNU C库使用LGPL的心理动机，毕竟世界上有那么多C函数库。\n对商业应用仍隐含不友好\n\n\n其留了口子，不可约束目的用于调试修改本库的逆向工程动作。\n\n\n静态链接使用时准备提供目标码，虽然未强制（以便库修改后仍能验证集成有效性），也对商业公司来说有些尴尬\n\n\n本质上已隐含了GPL，LGPLv3=GPLv3+补充条款，与GPL不一致的地方以补充部分为准，相当于override了\n\n实操的例子可参考[35]\n\nLGPL与Java\nLGPL 对所有已知编程语言都一样，包括 Java。连接 LGPL 库的应用不一定要按照 LGPL 授权，但要允许新的库版本连接到该应用；并且允许使用反向工程的方法来调试，这不意味着你需要提供源代码或你应用的内部详解，提供目标码即可，但大部分人连目标码也不想提供。\n\n\n当你和应用一起发布库（或者单独发布库）时，你需要包含库的源代码。\n\n\n但是如果你的应用需要用户自己去获取库，那么你就不需要提供库的源代码。\n\n\nJava 程序的典型配置是应用用到的每个库都以一个独立的 JAR（Java Archive）文件来分发。应用使用 Java 的 “import” 机制来访问库中的类。当应用编译之后，系统根据库的签名来创建链接。那么应用一般来说就是LGPL库的一个衍生作品[36]。\n\nIf you distribute a Java application that imports LGPL libraries, it’s easy to comply with the LGPL. Your application’s license needs to allow users to modify the library, and reverse engineer your code to debug these modifications\nBut if your application instead requires users to obtain the library on their own, you don’t need to provide source code for the library\n\n\nJavascript的库调用更像是静态链接，Python 更接近动态链接，Java 也更接近动态链接(类型的加载和链接过程都是在运行的时候进行的，动态加载和动态链接赋予了 Java 应用程序高度的灵活性)，但 Java 库一般喜欢用 &quot;GPL+Classpath 例外&quot;的许可证 2、3（如 GPL-2.0-with-classpath-exception）而非 LGPL[37]\n\n从大型产品角度看，GPL是更好的开源许可证？\n当程序员放弃版权，他可能认为自己做了世界上最无私的行为。\n但这个世界是一个商业利益占主导的世界，大公司可能先免费利用，然后在推出取代的私有产品，你以为自己风险了爱心，实质上变成了为大公司无偿打工。\n\n像Oracle拥有mysql这类事情就是很有风险的事情\n\n从这个角度，GPL是更好的开源许可证，它保证了自由无法被剥夺，也不是一种圈套或陷阱\n举操作系统领域的例子\n\nLinux效率更佳，FreeBSD架构优美但效率低，此为宏内核和混合内核的区别\n\n\n GPL可确保Linux不会成为专有产品，开发者做出的贡献最终会回到社区，Linux可以得到更好的发展。\nFreeBSD的贡献者就常被调侃为Apple公司的无薪员工，Apple在其基础上进行了一些更改，就变成了一个专有，非自有的操作系统，还对内核和其它部分进行了分叉，将其命名为Darwin，这一系统基本就远离了FreeBSD传统，Apple挣的钱也没有流向FreeBSD\n最新的Linux内核基本直接可用在android上\n\n许可证是Linux成功的决定性因素之一，因为它强制你必须回馈，如果你真的想创造更大的东西，如果你想围绕它创建一个社区，BSD/MIT许可证不一定是很好的许可证，会让开发人员觉得大公司在利用他们的工作\n\n PG库在国内就产生了很多版本分叉（国内基于PG的自研数据库，已没办法Merge最新的PG15的代码，和PG差距越来越大，最终决定开源自己的版本，如阿里Polar DB-PG）\n未积极融入社区讨论与回馈\n\n律师的最爱\nGPL的传染性，最具话题性。公开修改后的源码，这就是所谓的强制执行GPL。被告多为大企业，索赔数额巨大，大部分是庭外和解，但让GPL名声多少粘上污点，令人敬而远之。\nSFC（软件自由保护协会）靠强制执行GPL一战成名\n07年代表BusyBox走着向Monsoon Multimedia公司发起GPL侵权诉讼\n\nBusyBox作为GNU CoreUtil的替代品（提供流行的Linux命令，但仅包含这些命令的常用选项，相当于极简主义），能运行于linux、hurd、freebsd等，常用于嵌入式设备，用户大部分是linux用户\n\n对代码作者来说：没有什么比回馈代码更重要的了。然而最终得到相关代码，作者却用了四个字评价“毫无用处”（改动质量看不上）。\n\n从工程角度上，BusyBox不值得，没获得有用的代码，还导致多家公司完全退出Linux开发，用非Linux开发其嵌入式产品，真是抽了一块砖，倒了一堵墙。\n但SFLC（软件自由法律中心）偶尔会收到大额支票，留下大部分用于资助下一次诉讼。\n\n抽了一块砖，倒了一堵墙\nBusyBox的主要维护者曾寄希望于诉讼：“我只是希望人们尊重GPL”，他最后放弃了诉讼，也放弃了BusyBox。投身ToyBox的开发，那是一个没有GPL约束的替代品，以BSD许可证发布.\n\n按其写的简要自传记录，也有代码作者群体在GPLv3协议升级方面看法冲突，导致其主或被动 退出\nToyBox没有BusyBox功能覆盖广，但又比ToolBox强\n\n诉讼让更多人远离BusyBox及GPL，而不是产生有用的代码\n“摧毁”项目的人是声称要“拯救”这些项目的律师 – Linus\n社区抵制疯子&amp;“治愈”条款\n\n诉讼是激怒企业，并与之树敌的最快方式，而企业是社区很重要的一部分。\n\nLinus并不买诉讼的账，称SFC是传播恶疾的“伤寒玛丽”，引发了无休止的诉讼与争吵：除了律师和疯子，我不知道有谁对BusyBox的结局感到高兴。SFC闪耀了，开发者在法庭获胜，真正发生的是个人和企业开发者及用户都成群结队的逃离，因为用户也不喜欢大量的争吵。\n诉讼毁了社区，而不是保护。破坏了多年通过友好建立起来的所有善意，把朋友变敌人。FSF尝试过对抗模式，这就是为什么从自由软件中分离出了开源概念。\nLinux成功正式因为我们没有疯子对抗，而不是说采用了GPL是唯一的秘诀\n\n过去25年，一旦发现有公司违反GPL，linux社区开发者都会悄悄与公司合作，向他们展示GPL的好处，从内部说服他们，GPL值得遵守。尽管这种方式慢，累，令人沮丧，吃力不讨好，但奏效了，拉拢的不仅仅是linux追随者，还有反对者，发展了社区，赢得了对GPL许可证的信赖\n英特尔过去曾滥用GPL，但它今天是领先的贡献者，是linux最亲密的朋友之一，连微软都不曾与linux有过任何诉讼\n\n治愈补丁\n\n\n用户违反GPLv2，会立即终止该许可。\n\n\n在2017年linux内核组野针对项目补了一个补丁，给了30天补救时间，在收到违规通知后，30天内得到纠正，则许可不会被终止，此方案从GPLv3“治愈”条款借鉴过来。\n\n\nLinux 内核的 GPL 约束\nLinux 内核开源项目在 GPL 的庇佑之下，十多年来在服务器、PC 端以及各种嵌入式设备上成绩斐然，是当之无愧的当代计算机软件的基石。GPL 开源乌托邦和商业社会的丛林法则之间存在剧烈的冲突。有这么几个颇有争论的核心问题：\n\n使用 Linux 内核的头文件定义，进行系统调用的程序是否会被定性为衍生产品？\n链接使用了其他 GPL 的类库的程序是否会被定性为衍生产品？\nLinux 内核动态载入的模块 LKM（Loadable Kernel Modules）是否会被定性为衍生产品，以 LKM 形式开发的 Linux 驱动程序是不是衍生产品？\n\n自问自答\n第一个问题内核开发人员多次澄清普通系统调用为非 GPL 的作用范围，甚至固化在 Linux 内核的源码 COPYING 文档中。\n第二个问题的答案：是，除非能证明主程序与 GPL 模块之间具有 “独立性和可区分性”（Separate and Independent），官方的FAQ如此释疑：任何使用非LGPL类库的软件必须以 GPL 或者 GPL 兼容的许可证下进行发布？\n\n是，因为软件包含了该类库才能运作。\n\n第三个问题是硬件厂商和 Linux 内核开发社区之间一场旷日持久的争论的中心。如AMD/ATI、NVidia 出自硬件规格保密以及知识产权的考虑，长期以二进制软件包的方式独立发布图形驱动。答案：是。\n说到此处，NVidia不会因侵权被起诉 主要原因是， N家已经与Linux社区达成协议，根据协议，N家不开放其驱动的源代码，但会按linux内核版本更新，发布对应的驱动二进制文件，方便用户更新自己的驱动程序。此外，N还发布了CUDA变成平台，为linux用户提供强大的GPU计算力支持，为社区开发者和用户提供了重要的贡献。\n硬件厂商有自己的商业模式和技术优势需要保护，不撕破脸对双方都好（高性能和专业级别的显示驱动用户需求能得到满足，更别说AI世代来临）。只是从GPL社区的理念上，闭源驱动这事不道德。\n业界的确有GPL恐惧症\nGPL下的linux，存在着开源精神和商业机密及知识产权保护相关的商业精神之间的尖锐对立。对硬件厂商及其它商业软件开发者来说，既不能忽视linux广阔的商业市场，也不能放弃产品规格以及知识产权保护，两者都会伤害其立命之本。\n在早年的一份嵌入式操作系统选型的研究报告指出，Linux相对于其它BSD的Unix like操作系统，由于GPL的约束限制，不具有商业优势，一言以蔽之，业界有GPL的恐惧症。\nAndroid 在GPL下的成功\n\n把GPL局限在内核空间，用Adapter模式来处理Android和Linux的关系\nAndroid Open Source Project，简称ASOP（不包含设备驱动程序及Google移动服务）\n\nASOP 作为一个Linux的发行版本，在各种智能嵌入式设备上大放异彩。展示了采用GPL授权代码的手机也能获得巨大的市场成功。\n上古的Android\n主页风格借鉴了MacOS的风格，底部有一个Dock可显示五个应用图标，按Home键弹出快捷方式抽屉，操作完全用摇杆切换图标，与苹果全触控的交互逻辑完全没法竞争。原始Android M3版本有太多全键盘的交互逻辑，时间紧急，谷歌只好以侧滑盖方式保留了全键盘，在默认状态下以屏幕触控进行交互，硬碰IPhone。随着开放手机联盟的奋进，面世三年的Android在2010年就超越了Symbian\nAndroid被收购前，是准备做一个智能相机平台（可联网的相机，核心功能是一个基于云的照片存储系统，为了吸引投资人兴趣，为相机加上键盘，无线通讯等模块，做成了可上网的智能手机Sidekick，一种侧滑盖全键盘手机），公司的运营很不理想。受到Sidekick的启发，佩奇有了开发手机和一个移动操作系统的想法，旋即Android被收购。\nAndroid为何不基于FreeBSD开发？\n\nopenbsd更执着于服务端，freebsd还想将自己包装的更适合通用系统，驱动支持也更好点，二者都强调对安全的关注。\n\n\nFreeBSD对ARM的支持不如linux好，驱动更是不如linux多\n开放平台放给各厂商需要充足的人力资源环境支撑，linux这方面也优于BSD\n也利于避免各厂商fork闭源自己玩，不由Google全盘控制，更利于稳固生态圈\n\n\nX86采用CISC（复杂指令集计算机，指令多，电路设计复杂，功耗大，但对应编译器设计简单）\nARM（进阶精简指令集机器-Advanced RISC Machine）采用RISC精简指令集（指令少，功耗小，但编译器设计很复杂，其关键在于流水线操作能在一个时钟周期完成多条指令），是一个32位精简指令集处理器架构，ARM单核面积仅为X86的 1/7，同样芯片尺寸下可以集成更多核心数。通过”堆核“的方式，使得ARM架构处理器在性能快速提升下，也能保持较低的功耗。\n\nASOP的逃逸设计\n\nAndroid设计的多层软件栈中，采用Adapter模式处理Android和Linux的关系\n\n\n仅最核心的Linux内核使用GPL，Google对内核的修改需回馈回Linux主版本树\n\n\n上层类库，应用框架及所谓用户空间部分，大部分使用了 “ 温和 ” 的 Apache-2.0 软件许可授权，允许 Android 上的开发商基于 Android 的源代码进行开发而不向社区反馈，吸引了商业投资的潜力\n\n\n抛弃GNU glibc重写Bionic libc暴露了更多接口，充满争议单给出了GPL的清晰界限。\n\n其中一个主要原因是 “ We want to keep GPL out of user-space ”。（这其实有点难理解，毕竟 Gnu glibc 采用的是 LGPL 而非 GPL，并基于上文 GPL 第一点的讨论，使用系统调用的程序不再被视为 Linux 内核的衍生产品)。Bionic Libc 拷贝内核头文件的行为，充满着非议。\nAndroid 通过 Bionic libc 类库暴露了更多的接口，包括原来在内核空间才能使用的系统调用接口。其目的是为了让用户空间的驱动能够充分的利用内核和硬件资源，这也可能 Android 抛弃使用 gnu glibc 重写 Bionic libc 的其中一个主要原因。\n还有一个原因是Android被设计在仅有128M内存设备商长期运行，当时的glibc embedded这方面做的不理想，所以另起炉灶\n\nBionic针对移动设备上有限的cpu周期和可用内存进行了剪裁（去掉很多和进程，线程，同步相关的高级功能），在减少库大小的同事也提高了工作效率\n\n\n\n\n\n传统的linux驱动中包含了访问硬件寄存器代码和业务逻辑代码，Android HAL将驱动进行拆分。\n\n将访问硬件寄存器的代码保留到内核中，而将业务逻辑代码提取到HAL中（驱动中包含了技术专利和商业秘密，此举对保护厂家利益很有裨益）\n\n\n\n内核的用户空间 ABI（应用二进制接口）就是一种 GPL 的作用边界，能让开发者意识到用户空间的代码，不被定性为内核的衍生产品，如果 GPL 的界线清晰而易懂，可以帮助大家消除对 GPL 的恐惧。\n当前Android的做法梳理了各方在版权上的权利和义务，让 GPL 止步于内核空间的做法，目前看来获得了惊人的商业成功。且linus称Android违反GPL授权说法不正确，还肯定Android做的不错[18][19]。\n用户空间的驱动\nAndroid 的发展离不开硬件设备厂商的支持，硬件设备厂商最关注的是 Linux 驱动的 GPL 约束问题。公开驱动程序源代码将会泄漏设备的硬件规格和泄漏核心知识产权，这是硬件厂商 GPL 恐惧的缘由。Google 不遗余力的为硬件设备厂家排忧艰难，保驾护航。Android 在用户空间与内核空间之间存在着硬件抽象层  HAL（Hardware Abstraction Layer），HAL 类库本质上一种用户空间的驱动，其中的主要用途之一：规避 GPL\nLinux作为宏内核操作系统（Macrokernel），优点是驱动与系统内核共生在相同的地址空间，运作的效率比较高，缺点是当驱动有问题的时候，容易危及内核的工作安全。用户区间驱动的思路是将驱动的主要业务逻辑剥离出来放到用户空间的主驱动模块中，内核中的驱动是个 “影子” 驱动，只有透传控制命令和数据的功能。\n\n调试内核空间的程序比调试用户空间复杂得多，内核空间的bug引起的后果也严重的多。device driver是内核空间占比较大的代码。\n用户空间程序与设备通信的方法，主要有以下几种方式\n\n通过ioperm获取操作IO端口的权限，然后用inb/inw/inl/outb/outw/outl等函数，避开设备驱动程序，直接操作IO端口\n用ioctl函数去操作/dev目录下对应的设备，这是设备驱动程序提供的接口，像鼠标，键盘和触屏一般都是这样做\n用write/read/mmap去操作/dev目录下对应的设备，这也是设备驱动程序提供的接口，像framebuffer等都是这样操作的。\n\n对于hotplug设备，如U盘，上面的方法就有些困难了。处理hotplug的传统方法是，在内核中执行一个称为hotplug的程序，相关参数通过环境变量传递过来，再由hotplug通知其它关注hotplug事件的程序，这样效率低下且不那么优雅。新的方法是用一种特殊类型的socket–netlink实现的，专门用于内核空间和用户空间的异步通信。\n\n规避 GPL 的硬件厂家把需要保护的商业机密以及知识产权相关的逻辑放在 HAL 层，以二进制包的方式发布，不需要公开源代码。\nHAL\n简单来说，HAL就是一个设备数据库，管理当前系统中所有设备，你可以以多种灵活方式去查询这些设备，获取指定设备的特性，注册设备变化事件。Window下和Linux下的HAL所指并非相同之物。\n\nwindow下的HAL位于操作系统最底层，直接操作物理硬件，隔离与硬件相关的信息。为上层操作系统和设备驱动程序提供一个统一的接口，起到硬件抽象的作用，有了HAL，编写驱动要容易不少。\nlinux下的HAL，是一个位于操作系统和驱动程序之上运行于用户空间中的服务程序。众所周知，linux习惯用文件来抽象设备，但设备文件名没什么规范，从简单的文件名，无法得知它是什么设备，具有什么特性。\n\n乱七八糟的设备文件让设备的管理和应用程序的开发都变得很麻烦，所以有必要提供一个硬件抽象层，为上层应用程序提供一个统一的接口，告知其系统中有哪些设备可用，及这些设备的类型，特性和能力，让应用程序知道如何使用它们。\n针对一些特殊要求如一些硬件，可能需访问一些用户空间资源，或在内核空间不方便完成\n\n\n\n公地悲剧\n开源是每个人都参与其中，共享责任和所有权。这意味着利用该软件谋利的公司需要做一些回馈，无论是代码，文档，社区工作还是金钱。在可持续的开源中，参与者应该感到做贡献的必要性和道德义务。\n开源的早期大部分工作都是由热情的开发人员在深夜和周末完成的，这一切的动力源于他们对编程的热爱和在社区大家一起工作的乐趣。但在过去10到15年间，情况发生了巨大变化。\n开源软件生态恶化\n\n开源软件生态有变：以前，开源软件有众多的使用者，会形成一个社区，从社区得到反馈和支持。现在，企业级开源软件很可能都有云服务，导致企业客户都流向了云服务商，虽成为众多大型组织的关键基础设施，软件自身却形成不了社区。平衡全球企业社区的需求（云服务商反过来会对软件产生巨大影响），同时支持庞大的开源需求必然是一个巨大的负担，所以近些年见到不少流行的开源软件变更许可证（只是抵抗云服务商的一种策略）。\n\n如Amazon的Elastisearch的一个服务收入就高过了原始开发商Elastic的所有收入，相当于开源开发者在给Amazon创造利润\n\n\n云厂商代表还不做回馈，有些违背了开源共享责任和所有权的道德义务\n\n当Elastic推出付费版本后，Amazon一不做二不休，把开源分支分叉了，把所有收费功能写出来了\nAmazon不仅拿走利润，还创造出一个竞争性产品，类似的情况还有，Azure 提供 MongoDB 兼容的 CosmosDB 服务。导致开源数据库感到了云服务商的威胁，开始改变授权模式\n\n\n\n许多开源数据库对云服务都有限制。这完全是由 Amazon 的 aws 云服务引起的。aws 一直提供数据库服务，2009年推出 RDS MySQL 服务，2013年推出 PostgreSQL 服务，2015年推出 Amazon Elasticsearch 服务。大量企业购买这些服务，使得收入都向 Amazon 集中。如上面Elastisearch的例子。\n许可证授权变化\n近些年不少流行开源软件变更许可证，三种授权变化：\n\nAGPL：防止云服务上对软件进行内部修改，坏处是打击企业采用该软件的积极性\n产品分层：免费社区版和收费企业版，这样能保证收入，高级功能只在企业版不利于软件的开源\n软件开源，提供服务必须付费：CockroachDB 的策略。目前来看这种策略在开源和收费之间达到平衡，但影响力还不大。\n\nBSL(Business Source License)打个样\n BSL 的模式下，软件的源代码始终是公开的，代码的非生产使用始终免费。另外，软件作者即许可证还可以增加附加的使用条款，允许部分生产使用。同时，BSL 会保证在某一时间点，软件的源代码自动更换许可证为开源许可证，比如 GPL 2.0 以及更高的版本，或者是其他兼容许可证，如 Apache 许可证。\n\n“BSL 的目的是为客户、开发人员、用户和供应商提升软件行业整体的自由度和创新性。最后，我希望 BSL 将为新的商业模式铺平道路，这种新模式可以在不主要依赖捐赠的情况下维持软件开发。”，创造者如是说，希望 BSL 能带来新的增长模式，表达了开源需要支持的观点。\n\n不是开源许可证\nBusiness Source License 1.1不是开源许可证，BSL 不符合 OSI 所提出的 OSD 开源定义。原因在于 OSD 不允许对特定类型的行为做限制，如生产用途。\n\n\n一是非商业性使用没有限制，商业性使用有限制。\n\n\n二是许可证是模块化的，可以附加自己的条件（Additional Use Grant）\n\n\n是参数化许可证\nBSL 是一种参数化许可证，它允许版权所有者设置三个灵活的参数：\n\n一是更改许可证，该作品在 “更改日期” 之后，可更改成 GPL 版本 2.0 或更高版本兼容的许可证；\n二是更改日期，作品不再根据 BSL 获得许可，而是根据 “变更许可” 获得许可的日期；\n三是设置附加条款，“针对性” 收费，BSL 默认禁止软件的生产使用，许可人可以选择使用此参数向被许可人授予额外的权利。例如，它允许开发人员设置服务器 / CPU 等的数量限制，测试环境没有使用限制，只有生产使用时，高于限制值的使用会产生许可费。比如，MariaDB 附加的条件是，一个项目最多只能使用两个数据库服务器实例，超过就要付费。CockroachDB 附加的条件是，对外提供商业性的数据库服务需要付费。听起来像是一个非常标准的商业授权，但它与商业授权最大的区别在于 —— 源码始终可用。并且 BSL 通过设置一个到期日，保证 BSL 会变更成标准的开源许可证。\n\n但拥趸寥寥\n放眼 MariaDB 之外，BSL 的使用者并不多，并且，从其他使用者的附加条款来看，BSL 更多地是作为一种防御云厂商 “白嫖” 的方式。\n\nCockroachDB：变更日期 3 年；变更为 Apache 2.0；附加规定允许将 CockroachDB 用于任何目的（例如生产），只要不将其作为商业 DBaaS（数据库即服务）提供即可。 另几个软件也有类似禁止SAAS化的附加设定。\n\n国产开源：木兰许可协议系列\n木兰系列许可证包含”木兰宽松许可证“和”木兰公共许可证“（后续可能更多），均由北京大学作为牵头单位，依托全国信标委云计算标准工作组和中国开源云联盟，联合多方起草，修订并发布\n\n第一个版本于2019年8月5日发布，第二版本于2020年1月发布\n2020年2月14日，开源促进会（OSI，Open Source Initiative）批准了来自中国的木兰开源许可证第二版（MulanPSL v2），正式成为一个国际化的开源软件许可证（或称”协议“）\n\n许可证兼容\nBSD，MIT类宽松许可证兼容Mulan PSL V2许可证；\nMulan PSL V2兼容Apache License V2.0，L/GPLv2，L/GPLv3等许可证。即，许可在BSD，MIT类许可证下的代码可贡献到Mulan PSL V2项目中，许可在Mulan PSL V2下的代码可贡献到Apache License V2.0，L/GPLv2，L/GPLv3等项目中。\n木兰许可证取名由来？\n《木兰辞》有言：万里赴戎机，关山度若飞。像飞一般翻越关隘和山岭，或许这是木兰协议团队取名的由来。\n\n木兰辞作为北朝民歌，按歌中所写，花家应该是北魏鲜卑军户，并不是汉人，参与的是北魏太武帝（第三位皇帝）拓跋焘对抗 柔然 之战，先后十三次，木兰参加的应是429年这场胜果最大的一次。可汗这个名称也是最早由鲜卑人使用。\n柔然，是鲜卑和东胡的混合。也算是蒙古族的祖先构成之一。据传柔然的祖先是鲜卑家的奴隶，两家打了长达超百年的战争（391~523)，跟15世纪英法百年战争有一拼，还都出了女将军，木兰vs贞德，不过木兰胜利凯旋，贞德19岁火刑而死。公元552年，突厥人崛起，柔然国灭，几乎同时，北魏也分裂灭亡。\n\n一些杂问\n能使用多个开源协议吗\n当然可以，但要注意许可证冲突的问题\n\n以Apache V2.0为例，看看冲突情况\n\n\n\n\n协议\n是否与Apache2.0协议冲突\n\n\n\n\nBSD\n不冲突\n\n\nGPL\n冲突\n\n\nLGPL\n不冲突\n\n\nMIT\n不冲突\n\n\nMPL\n不冲突\n\n\n\n许可证兼容\n如何理解两个证兼容\n把两个程序合成一个较大的程序，你就会碰到此类问题。当无论如何都不能同时满足两个许可证，那么它们就是不兼容的。有些许可证允许把两个模块连接在一起，但是不允许把两个代码合成一个模块。\n例如你只是想把两个程序安装到同一系统中，那么它们的许可证是没必要兼容的，因为安装并不是把它们合成一个大的程序。\n为何原始的4句BSD许可证和GPL不兼容？\n因为它强加了一个GPL没有的条款：就是，要求对程序做广告的条款。而GPLv2/v3的陈述是，不能对被授权者获得的权利强加任何额外的限制。广告条款正是这种额外的限制，修正的BSD（3句）许可证没有这个广告条款，他就没有这个问题\nMIT和GPL如何兼容\n举例，A（使用MIT）和B（使用GPL）合并起来，形成C，如 netdata 这个代码包就是如此情况\n发布C时，你要显著地在文档或代码里体现以下内容\n\n说明C是GPL授权的，比如用LICENSE或COPYING文件来说明\n说明C用A，说明A的著作权，以及A是用MIT协议的。一方面要在文档中说，另一方面，在代码里也要保留A的著作权和MIT协议\n\n这样做，不违背MIT，也不违背GPL。别人看了，如果想用C，就遵循GPL；如果只想用A，遵循MIT就可以了\n我后面能修改许可证吗\n版权所有者负责许可条款，只要你是唯一的贡献者，就可以轻松更改许可证。\n这样Linus想要在不同的许可下发布Linux内核，他可能首先需要成千上万的贡献者同意该项目，o(￣︶￣)o\n开源对工程师的要求\n\n结构要求\n\n项目结构：应有一个合理，专业，符合语言特色的项目结构\nLICENSE：声明遵循什么软件协议\nREADME.md：放在项目根目录下，包含项目描述，依赖项，安装、使用、贡献方法和遵循的软件协议\nCHANGELOG：目录，用以存放版本的变更历史，方便其他开发者了解新旧版本的变更内容\nexamples：完善的examples，可帮助用户快速学习和使用项目\nCONTRIBUTING： 用以说明如何给本项目贡献代码，流程和流程细节的详细操作\ndocs：目录，存放项目所有文档，如安装、使用、开发文档。部分可链接到根目录的README中。使得开发者能轻松理解、部署、使用项目\n\n\n品质要求\n\n安全：不要出现类似内部IP，域名，密码，密钥这类信息\n好的Commit Message记录：遵循一定的规范，使其它开发者能快速浏览和理解变更历史，减少学习成本\n严格遵循代码规范：开源代码面向所有开发者，不规范和可读性差的代码不利于其他开发者阅读和贡献代码\n代码质量：低质量代码隐藏性能和功能缺陷，还会影响开源项目品牌和开源效果\n单测覆盖率：使得开源项目更专业，也可保证代码质量，让你更安心发布版本\n版本发布规范+向下兼容：尽可能减少发布变更的影响\n详细的文档说明：保证代码能被其他开发者很容易的阅读和贡献代码，文档的质量和数量都有高水准\n发布可用的版本：确保每次发布都经过充分测试，每个版本都是可用的\n及时处理pull request、issue、评论等+持续的更新：好的开源项目，应能持续更新功能，修复bug，当项目被别的开发者提交pull request、issue、评论，要及时处理，激发其他贡献者的积极性。对于一些已结项、不维护的开源项目，要及时对项目进行归档，并在项目中予以说明\n\n建立讨论小组：最好和贡献者建立讨论小组，每周或每月组织讨论，共同维护\n\n\n\n\n做好推广：如果有条件，可宣传运营开源项目，如在各类技术平台发表文章，创建交流群等\n\n开源使用的风险与治理\n开源软件在最为敏感的金融行业的应用主要面临合规风险、安全风险、技术风险和管理风险等四类风险[16]。\nmindmap\n  root((开源风险))\n    合规风险（违反许可，导致侵权）\n    安全风险（安全漏洞，被攻击风险）\n    技术风险（专业技能不足或错误应用，导致故障）\n    管理风险（台账不请，难紧急应对`\n\n台账：原指摆放在台上供人翻阅的账簿，也就是明细记录表\n\ntimeline\n    title 开源风险治理建设锚点\n    section 战略目标\n        感知+治理 : 合规使用\n        : 供应链安全\n        : 安全使用\n    section 过程能力\n        引入管控 : 引入台账\n        : 软件测评\n        : 漏洞分析\n        问题管控 : 专家支持\n        : 漏洞跟踪\n        : 风险跟踪\n        退出管理: 存量治理\n        : 退出台账\n    section 工具能力\n        托管平台 : 制品仓库\n        : 知识库\n        : DevOps集成\n        组成分析 : 制品成分分析\n        : 许可证扫描\n        : 漏洞扫描\n        : 黑名单\n        : 报告清单\n供应链安全\n23年以来，部分公司也收到Qt公司的律师函，被指控使用其开源软件但未遵守开源许可证义务。QT公司现在主要靠卖license活，有LGPL和商用license两种协议，在桌面开发方面一般用LGPL没问题，但其就想在嵌入式上挣点钱。例如其在IOS上官方只提供静态库，你开发闭源软件就容易中招。\n现在流行的组件扫描和漏洞发现工具，是美国的Synopsys（新思科技）的BlackDuck，但其只在国内销售不带库的版本，要把安全漏洞对应到开源组件上，需要把代码特征值传到国外网站上，才能对比\nSynopsys Detect扫描项目并计算项目文件的特征值信息，这些特征值信息会加密传至BlackDuck应用服务；BlackDuck应用服务器再将项目文件特征值信息加密上传至BlackDuck服务进行匹配对比，并将识别出的项目开源组件版本及安全漏洞信息展示给用户\n安全生态\n\n\n84%的代码库至少包含一个已知的开源漏洞（仍在上升趋势），48%的含高风险漏洞（微下降趋势）\n\n高风险漏洞是指已被主动利用，已被证明存在或已被归类为远程代码执行的漏洞\n\n\n\n开源漏洞在流行项目中较为普遍，检查最流行的 Java、JavaScript、Python 和 .NET 项目的前 10% 时,29%的流行项目至少包含一个已知的安全漏洞[27]\n\n\n截止23年开源软件模块库中，检测到24w恶意软件包，增长非常迅速。Node.js (npm) 和 Python (PyPI) 存储库一直是恶意软件包的主要目标，推测是因为在软件包安装过程中很容易触发恶意代码\n\n95%以窃取敏感信息为目的\n\n\n\n34%的受访者表示过去12个月经历过”利用开源软件已知漏洞发起的攻击“，到2025这比例可能会继续攀升\n\n\n2023.11月工行就因为思杰软件的漏洞，被黑客侵入勒索，交了赎金（也难怪思杰最近也退出中国了）\n开源软件过期状态\n\n91%的代码库都包含过去2年未进行任何更新的开源代码，即非最新版本\n\n功能升级\n代码改进\n安全问题修复\n\n\n商业软件的补丁和更新是自动推送的，使用开源软件用户端的责任加重了，这也是信任带来的问题\n\n碎片化加剧问题\n\n15%的代码库中包含同一组件的10个以上版本\n\n\n究其根因，还是开展维护活动的贡献者缺乏激励\n\n感知+治理\n各团队依赖关系管理实践差异极大，保护软件供应链的第一步是管理应用程序中的开源代码和第三方代码\n\n了解贵组织对它们的依赖情况\n针对这些组件引入的风险轻松收集相关信息\n借助工具和实践对其进行管理，确定优先级并进行补救\n只有获得供应链及其众多相关元素完全可视性，你才能开始保护它\n\n\n依赖管理是一项大规模的努力，仅在生产应用程序中的 25% 的库上实施\n\n【要信任，但要验证】是与开源生态共存的工作原则\n许可证治理咋办？\n直接治理\n\n替换：替换组件本身或替换组件版本，也包含外购组件替换\n停用：完全删除或停用该组件\n\n软性治理\n\n\n\n方法类别\n介绍\n适用场景\n\n\n\n\n程序隔离\n剥离封装为服务对外提供\n适用多数许可协议\n\n\n公示声明\n哪里用了开源软件，协议是什么，在哪里可以下载\n客户端，SDK等，GPL，CDDL，LGPL，MPL等有“许可证声明”约束条件的协议\n\n\n引用变更\n用“依赖”替代“嵌入”，如动态链接替代静态\n绝大部分开源许可协议\n\n\n用户下载\n开源组件从部署包中剥离，在软件操作文档中给出指引，提示用户自己下载软件运行所需要的开源组件\n存在无法避免传染的风险协议\n\n\n\n引用\n1.runoob.com. 各种开源协议介绍 ↩2.百度. Linus全身每一个细胞都在拒绝GPLv3 ↩3.ifanr. Android ，在争议中逃离 Linux 内核的 GPL 约束 ↩4.STGOD. 各种开源协议介绍 ↩5.腾讯云 LGPL协议详解 ↩6.oschina BSD开源协议对比 ↩7.oschia 开源指北大全 ↩8.阮一峰 为何开源数据库更改许可证 ↩9.微月人话 步进式解读Apache许可证 ↩10.ifengkou 开源软件和开源许可证 ↩11.知产力 开源，就真的可以随意使用吗？ ↩12.软件学报 开源许可证的选择: 挑战和影响因素 ↩13.维基百科 自由及开放源代码软件许可协议比较 ↩14.维基百科 GNU通用公共许可证 ↩15.ZGEO博客 关于开源软件许可的介绍 ↩16.安全内参 西安银行开源软件治理体系的建设实践 ↩17.OSCHINA FreeBSD大败局 ↩18.新浪数码 Linux创始人：Android问题多不在Google ↩19.OSCHINA Linus 称 Android 违反 GPL 授权说法不正确 ↩20.CSDN 深入Android系统 Bionic库 ↩21.gnu.org GNU 许可证常见问题 ↩22.开源中国 GPL也没有那么可怕 ↩23.百度问问 nvidia闭源驱动为什么不被起诉 ↩24.百家号 android发展史 ↩25.OSCHINA linus称Android违反GPL授权说法不正确 ↩26.gnu.org 为什么“自由软件”好于“开源” ↩27.安全内参 2021 年软件供应链状况报告 ↩28.synopsys 2023开源安全和风险分析报告 ↩29.Sonatype 第9次软件供应链状态报告 ↩30.知乎 开源软件的安全与自主可控 ↩31.csdn 常见开源许可协议核心内容 ↩32.IT分享知识网 开源协议的权限解析 ↩33.csdn 开源协议思维导图 ↩34.腾讯云 一图说明常见开源协议 ↩35.腾讯云 LGPL协议详解 ↩36.GNU LGPL 和 Java ↩37.CSDN 人话解读 LGPLv3 ↩38.InfoQ MongDB 与 SSPL ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"微信版本的历史地图","url":"/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE.html","content":"\n内容是22年1月27号整理完的，提及v1.0~8.0的历史脉络，搬上来更易阅读。借鉴了他人的网络文章的图和内容，也融合了梁宁得到课程里的一些内容。\n国民应用微信这一路走来，拳打米聊，脚踢微博，用春晚红包逼阿里高层过年开会，健康码普及又打开父母的手机，它俨然已是大而不能倒的基础设施，虽然天下也苦微信久矣，我最近还吐槽其支付特性中霸王设定，不可否认此一款创造了诸多第一的产品能给我们不小的启发。\n产品直指人心最重要\n很多产品为什么第一版本设计的那么复杂？因为不自信\n\n对于&quot;只要做强哪个点，就是对的&quot;没把握，希望通过一些附加功能点上找心理依靠\n奥卡姆剃刀也在这里检验你的认知水平能力\n\n要的是什么？\n\n简单\n直接\n切中要害，直指人心\n\n\n1.0–熟人间的通讯工具\nV1.0\n2011.1.21 微信1.0，iphone版首发，只有4个功能，三天后的1月24日，微信又发布了第一个Android版本\n\n设置头像和微信名\n发送信息\n发送图片\n导入通讯录\n\n\n当时主要通过QQ号和邮箱注册，添加好友的方式是邀请QQ好友和添加微信号\nV1.2\nv1.2添加了多人会话，通讯录分组和会话搜索，腾讯微博私信互通，接着支持表情包，好友备注和黑名单\n\n\n每隔一个多月更新一个版本，它在社交上的基本功能继续增加，并不断通过腾讯其它产品拉新。微信1.x版本共有400w用户\n\n拳打米聊\n米聊起步在先，微信的确先是抄袭，早期大家都定义为熟人间通信工具（用免费的发短信照片，替代收费的短信和彩信），对比只能发文字的飞信，显得更有意思。\n但系统能力让微信赢了米聊。直到2.0版之前，微信vs米聊用户数 400w vs 1000w\n\n系统能力上，微信团队已经做了快10年的QQ邮箱，全国最大的邮箱服务平台，有个很强的功能是超大附件。超大数据定点传输负载均衡，系统不崩溃。这点系统能力建设是米聊团队望尘莫及的。\n初创期的小米，根本不可能囤积那么多设备去提升米聊的性能，这就是你永远觉得微信很快，米聊有时会慢，会卡，偶尔系统崩溃。这就像ATM机，前端那个铁盒子没你想象的那么重要，一个ATM机要放20多万现金，一个银行若要提供100台ATM机时，就意味着把2000w现金放到外面去，一毛钱增值收益都没有。分流了企业的核心资源，它的价值不是界面红的蓝的，先出卡还是先出钞那么表面，这个男女老幼通吃没有用户区隔的产品，提供完整系统能力需要多个岗位配合，战略规划和运营，现金，硬件维护，客服，技术等\n\n微信的1.0、1.1版本的时候，加好友不需要备注，因为不会加陌生人，这里只有特别熟的朋友。\n当2.x版本查看附近的人上线后，微信用户突击到了2000w，已和米聊拉开差距。随后的迭代里，3.0退出摇一摇功能，微信用户上亿。米聊峰值永远停留在3000w。在2020年1月19日晚7点40分，张小龙用视频号开启微信下一个十年，而数小时前，米聊宣布将于2.19日停服，同样10年，一个坐拥12亿用户，一个黯然退场\n2.0–陌生人社交上场\n\n初版4个月后2011年5月10日\n\n新增功能：语音通讯（发语音）功能，支持QQ邮箱提醒\n\nV2.2\nV2.2 加了查看附近的人（距离V1.0不到半年）\n\n查看附近的人一上线，在没有动用任何QQ资源的前提下，日增用户一跃达到10w\n\n\n陌陌同天登场\n当微信V2.2版本上线的当天，陌陌也同一天上线，同是基于位置的陌生人社交。\n米聊止步于熟人社交，直到很久之后才打破，但那时大势已去。张小龙和陌陌的唐岩体验过孤独与弱势，有与陌生人建立连接的需求。且和陌生人交往过程中，压力点的体验非常清楚。\n雷军少年得志，他的世界一直非常拥挤，时间宝贵，个人需求就是提升与熟人间的沟通效率，没有认识陌生人的需求。\nV2.5\nV2.5增加聊天支持发送视频，以及加了一些细节特性功能，执着于引流\n\n支持手机通讯录匹配找到微信好友，支持向我推荐QQ好友和通讯录好友（将熟人间的社交与微信相联系）\n接收QQ离线消息\n语音记事本；设置个性签名\n支持手机号注册微信\n好友验证，QQ号查找到我，将我推荐给QQ好友等隐私设置\nQQ邮箱中，还会经常受到微信好友的微信下载邀请，持续骚扰，相当于转介绍\n\n增长神话\n微信上线433天，用户突破一亿。QQ这个数字用了近10年，FB用了5年半，twitter用了4年，微博用了20个月，微信用时14个月，这得益于无线互联网时代的到来。这个时代，诸多好手你上我下。\n移动互联网元年\n2012，算是中国移动物联网时代的元年，这一年小米2发布，但与此同时，360搜索也发布，跟百度大打搜索战争。无线互联网时代降临的趋势节点，连大佬们也不是全部观察得到。\n3.0–扫一扫连接物理世界，服务号伏笔内容生态\n2011年10月1日，V3.0上线，更像是一个蛰伏过度期，仍在谋用户增长，没生态化反\n\n\n摇一摇，漂流瓶\n\n漂流瓶功能现已下线，始于寂寞，止于色情。这个非即时通讯功能满足了用户对倾诉和匿名社交的需求。最早是在2010QQ邮箱上帝一个小功能\n\n\n\n\n群组可保存至通讯录\n\n\n还有一些不那么重要的功能\n\n支持繁体中文语言界面，支持插件卸载安装，免打扰\n港澳台，美国，日本五个地区的用户绑定手机号\n\n\n\nV3.5\n在V3.5这个版本中，新增了扫描二维码，二维码名片的功能，与此同时，还有支持更多表情，自定义聊天背景，石头剪子布和扔骰子游戏\n\n\nV3.6\nV3.6版本中，腾讯新闻插件，腾讯微博插件，支持写邮件，服务号上线\n\n从这个版本开始，微信和陌陌开始走向不同的道路，陌陌继续连接陌生人，但微信生态更高一个档次，但此时服务号还不火，且待在沉默中爆发\n\n核心的聊天功能还在优化，新增了\n\n群发助手\n发祝福有彩蛋\n支持语音取消\n\n\n4.0–朋友圈转身社交平台\n2012年4月19日，V4.0发布\n\n这一版的打开介绍有这样一段话：如你所知，微信不只是一个聊天工具。一切从照片开始，你拍了一张照片，你就拥有了自己的相册，在[朋友圈]你可以了解朋友们的生活。如你所见，微信，是一个生活方式。\n\n\n\n相册功能和朋友圈功能，照片可分享到微信内的朋友圈\n\n\n在推出朋友圈工作之前，做了两个前置工作，V3.5增加了扫描二维码，V3.6增加了微信公众号。这两个动作的价值在于，一个普通人的生活没有那么多可供朋友消费的内容，如果没有这两个前置功能，我们就直接打开朋友圈，会非常难看\n\n\n微信消息可向好友群发，照片和视频可转发给好友\n转发当下所在位置给好友\n微信开放接口，支持从第三方应用向好友分享音乐，新闻等内容\n给好友加星标，可用facebook账号登录，英文版本改名WeChat，界面支持7种语言，支持用海外手机号码接收验证码进行注册\n\n\nV4.2\nV4.2版本中，可以与朋友视频聊天[视频聊天才是国民福利]，朋友圈可以设置权限，也终于可恢复朋友圈照片的评论了\n\n此前的版本朋友评论你是无法回复的，直到4.2才做出来，这说明没必要憋大招，没有必要所有功能全做好再出来。因为如果你非常想回复他，大可以点对点跟他说。基于核心功能附加的其它功能点没有那么重要，可以一步步来\n\n\n\nV4.3 &amp; V4.5\nV4.3版本中，支持解绑QQ号和手机号，聊天置顶，语音搜索也出现了，此时的扫一扫可以扫描任何二维码了\n\nV4.5版本推出了内容公众号，同时还支持实时对讲和多人实时语音聊天，进化了摇一摇和新增群二维码，还有位置导航功能\n\n公众号的突破\n微博是喧嚣的广场，那么公众号就是小圈子的沙龙会客厅。在微博形成围观改变中国超大公共空间之外，微信公众号另起炉灶，成功创造出了一个内容输出平台，开凿出一条内容护城河\n公众号推动了一大批媒体人创业，孕育了一大波网红\n公众号上线15个月后，达到200w个，每天新增8000个。到2015年10月，总量突破1000w，这使得它有信心成为一个新的桌面系统，构建一个内生闭环的社交和商业生态链\n5.0–开始成为移动互联网枢纽\n2013年8月，V5.0发布，重磅功能有：微信支付，公众号/服务号，进化的扫一扫\n为了让好几亿用户尽可能更新到V5.0，当时微信把更新开机界面变成了一个“飞机大战”小游戏\n\n订阅号与服务号\n为了抑制公众账号信息泛滥，V5.0分为了两类账号：订阅号和服务号\n\n订阅号可以个人为主体注册，服务号需要提供企业信息\n\n\n扫一扫升级\n扫一扫的内容除了之前的二维码之外，还增加了扫描条形码，扫封面，扫街景，扫描翻译。这个功能由最初的社交（加好友）进化为各种商业交易的入口\n\n微信支付\n4.7亿用户，社交功能已经够用，如何从移动版的QQ空间（晒照，聊天，点赞）升级为移动商业帝国，绑定银行卡就是这个预动作\n\n微信支付功能，打通线上线下，可把微信号和银行账号绑定\n\n\n宕机失联\n2013年7月22日，微信遭遇宕机，花了6个小时才修复，人们在社交网络上失联，让人们意识到它的大而不能倒\n6.0–钱的流通，微信红包\n2014年9月30日，微信6.0 for ios版本上线，同一天还有一个新闻是国行iphone获得入网许可，即将开放预定（彼时iphone6刚刚面世）\n最初6.0版本没有太多大招，新增的主要功能有\n\n\n微信小视频，可分享到朋友圈或聊天界面\n\n\n\n微信卡包，可聚合优惠券，会员卡，机票，电影票等（后证实也是鸡肋功能，我还是卡包的首发对接方）\n\n\n\n可为微信钱包设置手势密码，游戏中心改版\n\n\nV6.1-红包降临\n2015年新年发布的V6.1版本中，微信红包来了，羊年春晚借势爆发，400w到一亿一天完成，当然不是任何一个小公司在这种情况下能接得住\n\n6.0-7.0之间相隔了52个月，也就是超过了4年，斗转星移\n\n\n6.2 版本：二维码收款，长按翻译朋友圈文字\n\n\n比政治讳，没有6.4版本\n\n\n6.5.1，朋友圈中分享10s小视频\n\n\n6.6.1版本for ios(2017-12-28)，小程序可以下拉访问到\n\n2017年1月9日，张小龙在2017微信公开课Pro上发布的小程序正式上线\n\n\n\n\n微信红包的历史\n\n2013年的移动支付市场，支付宝市占率76%，财付通3.3%，这20多倍的差距，差不多是3层楼和76层楼的差别。\n\n微信红包其实于2013年偶然诞生（团队业余时间小项目，用公司资源未做申报就做了），当时是微信里的一个插件（点对点红包，拼手气红包均有）。自诞生来只是在小圈层中传播发展，并未有多大能量。\n2014年春节达到了一个峰值，458w人，几个月后就没再突破这个数字，且是掉下来的。这个458w可能是2014年时全国互联网圈的核心活跃人数（尝鲜爱好者），是自然能量达到的极限值。在不借助任何外部势力的情况下，近7个月的时间，困在400w用户里无法突破。\n阿里集五福的失败\n2015年支付宝集5福，分2亿，参加活动不少于2000w人，但集齐5福的人只有79w（82w张敬业福），不爽的人有96%，如果以4亿用户为基数，不爽率99.8%，这可是消耗了2.7亿的广告费\n7.0–天下初定，小修小补\n\n7.0的大版本维持了2年多，从2018年出现，到2021年上线8.0版本，期间一直在7.0.xx修修补补，一个ios深色模式也是拖拖拉拉，好像整体团队放价或颓了一样\n\n\n\n主界面全新改版，更扁平化和清晰直观\n\n\n新增时刻视频，也可给朋友的视频冒个泡，告诉他你来过； — 强如微信也要失败，小龙也开始慢慢下山去打高尔夫\n\n\n\n\n\n点赞变好看，可在看一看中浏览朋友认为好看的文章— 在用户隐私上动心思，结果使得活跃度受到抑制\n\n\n\n可在单聊中设置强提醒（全屏提醒并震动）-- 我从来没用过，在8.0版本上已经不见了\n\n\n8.0–继续短视频攻伐\n2021年1月21日发布，老一辈全歇菜，新生代登场\n\n动画表情\n\n\n\n浮窗改版，破除最多5个的限制\n自定义状态\n\n\n\n视频有关\n\n视频号点击可隐藏，为了短视频，也是拼了，其实国内非监管类的各家对于用户隐私，应该都是说一套做一套\n视频号原声提取\n\n\n公众号末尾新增收藏按钮\n\n\n\n下拉菜单变更，用过的小程序被收到顶层，只展示最近用过的5个，空白区域则会显示最近看过的直播，未看完的视频，文章等\n红包可以加视频\n\n数字化看产品\n\n\n每天有10.9亿用户打开微信，3.3亿用户进行了视频通话\n\n\n7.8亿用户进入朋友圈，1.2亿发表朋友圈，其中照片6.7亿张，短视频1亿条\n\n\n3.6亿用户读公众号文章，4亿用户使用小程序\n\n\n2亿人朋友圈设置仅3天可见，2019年时还是1亿人\n\n\n结语\n\n\n微信是一个无线互联网时代明星产品的缩影，凝结了认知战略和系统能力\n\n从最早一个通讯工具，到社交平台，到移动生活场景，甚至是移动商业帝国\n从一个点，走向了一个面，最后形成了一个巨大的经济体，就像一个生命体一样，会有意识和进化\n从生物学启示来说，巨无霸生命体自然寿命比较长\n\n\n\n不要憋大招，新世代敏捷是王道\n\n从一个最好的内核开始\n迭代中，重要的是次序，前一个动作是后一个动作的预动作\n基于核心功能附加的其它功能点没有那么重要，可以一步步来\n\n\n\n参考\n微信八年：从 1.0 到 7.0 版本，一个通讯工具的进化史\n从微信版本历史，学产品功能迭代和用户体验（下）\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["历史","方法论"]},{"title":"微博微信差别与微博用户画像","url":"/%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%8E%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html","content":"\n概论\n每个公司都有自己的企业基因，新浪的基因是网络媒体，腾讯的基因是社交和聊天工具，决定了两家的产品及走向。\n微博和微信最核心的区别在于媒体Media和社交Social的侧重。\n\n微博本质是一个媒体工具，同时有社交的功能；\n微信的本质是社交工具，同时有一些媒体的功能\n\n微博作为媒体工具，关系主要在兴趣上，关系质量较弱，单向传播多，注重是传播速度和内容公开。弱关系更有利于知识和信息的传播\n微信是社交工具，关系建立在社会关系上，注重私人内容交流和互动，消息消化率高，评论回复率是肯定高过微博。强关系更倾向于沟通和和分享。\n二者重叠吗\n互联网时代以前，你还是要看电视（媒体），也还要打电话（社交）。\n微博做的是媒体，主要是卖广告，微信做的是社交，卖的是增值服务和平台。\n早期产品模型\n\n微博：让所有人看到你发的短信\n微信：用流量打电话；公众号针对粉丝订阅模式，很类似邮件营销的进化版本\n\n\n用户心理需求不同\n微博上用户更具隐匿性，因熟人不多，更加倾向于表达真实的自我，满足更多的是用户的尊重需要和价值实现需要。微信因为是熟人关系网络，重在沟通分享，更多是满足用户的情感和归属需要（喜怒不形于朋友圈，而形于微博）。\n\n微博：一个人的狂欢。陌生人社交产品，都带着一种扩大交际圈和排解孤独的味道。\n微信：一群人的孤单\n\n微博微信的用户使用目的雷达图可见下，微博主要目的是“及时了解新闻热点”，微信用户最主要是“和朋友互动”\n\n一种内容结果的比喻，很是揶揄。微博让大家意识到：天下SB数不胜数。微信用朋友圈证明：SB出自亲朋好友。\n微博微信内容分析\n强传播者的差异\n微信总榜前50公众号中，占比最大的是娱乐类型的公众号，达到32%，其中6个是笑话类；其次是文化类公众号，占比24%，然后依次是生活类20%，时事类18%，健康类4%\n\n微博总榜前50，占比最大的依然是泛娱乐类的号，达到52%，26个，其中19个是明星个人号，其它几个也是和娱乐明星息息相关的娱乐资讯号。其次是时事类，占比34%，大部分是权威新闻类IP，然后依次是生活类10%，文化类2%\n\n结论\n微博上以强传播力IP以名人和知名品牌为主，微信上强IP为草根IP为主。内容方面，微博以娱乐时事为主，微信上除了娱乐和时事，文化类也占了重要的比例。\n深度内容或草根以微信端为主战场会更好。\n且很有意思的一点，微博和微信前50强或100强，没有重合，进一步说明微博和微信平台调性和传播方面的巨大差异。\n内容形式区别\n微博内容短文+视频为主，视频多来源于秒拍，新浪也入股了。对外链没限制，外链会以蓝色文字和图片形式展示，效果也是很不错，能有效推广官网，公众号等其它企业宣发渠道。\n相较于微博，微信内容大部分以长篇图文形式展示，适合做深度内容，电商常在公众号里详细描绘产品功能，特性，使用方法，适宜人群等，但只会在微博放上几张图片或视频，外加一个购买链接。\n微博没有点击率一说，都是自动加载。点击率对微信的重要程度很高，这也是微信中盛行标题党，微博中少见的原因了。\n诱导转发区别\n微博对于诱导转发，诱导关注宽容，甚至成立个官方机构–转发抽奖平台，来保证诱导转发等活动的公开公平公正。诱导转发一直是微博上吸粉最快的方式，大量企业都采用这种方式增加粉丝，提高活跃度。\n\n副作用：放任假粉丝、广告、等诱导信息的肆无忌惮，使得微博的流量生态/风味不好，劣币驱逐良币。\n\n微博的转发率可通过两个方面来提升，内容质量和诱导转发，微信中就只剩前一条了。微信更强调互动深度，微博更强调传播链条和粉丝覆盖。\n根因分析\n对于诱导转发或关注行为的态度不同，主要因为微博和微信的盈利模式存很大差异。微博主要靠影响信息排序来盈利，微信主要靠卖广告位（朋友圈和公众号广告位）盈利。换句话说，微博不干涉甚至支持你获得粉丝，但在你给粉丝发消息的环节，会人为干扰，给了钱的用户获得消息的优先展示权；微信不干涉消息排序，都是按时间轴排序，但在最开始的品牌曝光环节进行干扰。否则，大家都靠诱导转发增加（粉丝）曝光了，广告位还有谁买？\n\n毕竟，一个信息一定能收到，一个或许被淹没。增曝光的结果可测度不同。微信也不显示转发量，来暗示你转发，都转发也不利于它卖广告。\n\n微博的内容排序干预工具\n微博主要通过热门微博，博文头条，微博会员等功能参与信息排序。\n\n\n热门微博以热度为标题进行排序，有小时榜，天榜，周榜，月榜，还可根据用户喜好划分出兴趣，娱乐，生活，本地等类别。热度值由机器计算，主要指标有转发，点赞，发布时间等，结合其它指标进行热度加权或降权。通过把控这个流量超大的热门微博栏目，实际上很大程度控制了微博用户获取信息的内容。\n\n\n博文头条能在24小时内，让你的博文出现在所有粉丝微博首页第一位，左上角会有热门标记，可增加相关博文阅读量和影响力。支付的费用和粉丝量和曝光量成正比。\n\n\n微博会员有本人主页置顶微博的特权。\n\n\n微博2020用户发展报告\n年轻化\n90，00占比近80%，80后还剩（18%）。女性用户占比越来越高，00后中，已盖过男性达到61%。\n\n50年代出生1.78亿人\n\n\n\n\n\n60\n70\n80\n90\n00\n10\n\n\n\n\n总人口\n2.37亿\n2.17亿\n2.21亿\n2.09亿\n1.63亿\n1.63亿\n\n\n微博用户占比\n1%(含50后)\n3%\n18%\n48%\n30%\n未知\n\n\n\n\n\n内容特征挖掘\n\n\n接下来进入代际特征大比拼\n80后“求知欲”最旺盛，关注大V最多，是00后的近2倍，是90后1.3倍。00后平均关注20多位明星。\n话题总榜\n\n70，80泛社会，90，00泛娱乐\n\n70后和00后，同关注高考和天问一号火星探测。除此之外，70后更关心美股暴跌，腾讯状告老干妈，马拉多纳去世。00后更喜欢创造营2020和2020KPL秋季赛，参与流行热梗。\n\n活动时段\n12点和晚上22点是微博用户的黄金冲浪时段，上班路上也是高峰，90后和00后的互动量最高。\n90后使用流行梗是80后的4倍。\n热点话题中表情包是用户最直接的表态方式。\n\n电视剧\n70后关注家庭，在意别人家的小孩\n80后更喜欢都市剧，喜欢寻找情感共鸣\n90后偏好大IP改编，鲜衣怒马快意恩仇\n00后关注写实类电视剧和流星小甜剧\n\n综艺\n00后偏爱爱豆真人秀\n90后喜欢养成类综艺\n80，70后姐姐粉，喜欢突破年龄禁锢的综艺，在各种跨度综艺中享受生活\n\n美食\n在美食上，火锅、奶茶、螺蛳粉入选00后美食榜单前三名，螺蛳粉、烤肉、酸辣粉则是90后钟爱的小吃。在年轻用户的频繁讨论和分享中，螺蛳粉迅速培养起热搜体质，以各种花式热门话题频频冲上热搜\n\n健身\n\n\n动漫\n\n\n剁手之王\n90后女生成为消费中流砥柱，赢得“剁手之王”的称号，她们通过电商小店购买的商品是清洁用品、药品，非常注重健康防护，伴随着成家立业，她们经常购买的商品还包括居家用品、床上用品、婴儿用品、蔬菜肉类，与生活息息相关\n\n万物开箱\n不管是丑东西还是雷品，都能遇到猎奇的测评er，万物皆可开箱，每天1500万人观看\n\n附录-七普部分人口数据分析\n\n老龄化\n有12个省份65+人口比重超过14%，分别是天津，黑吉辽，上海，江苏，安徽，山东，两湖，重庆，四川。\n除西藏外，全国31个省市（不含港澳台）65+全部超过7%，广东8.58算比新疆7.76号的第二名，比青海都好。\n乡村老龄人口比重比城镇更高\n受教育程度\n\n\n\n人口总计\n大专以上\n高中（含中专）\n初中\n小学\n\n\n\n\n141178\n21836\n21301\n48716\n34966\n\n\n\n\n15岁以上人口，全国平均受教育年限9.91年，大家没有特别冒尖的，前三名是北上天，分别是12.64年，11.81年，11.29年。接下来竟是广东，10.38。\n16-59岁劳动年龄人口（约为8.94亿，总人口的63.35%）平均受教育年限平均值更高些，10.75年。高中以上文化水平3.85亿（总人口4.31亿），43.79%。大专以上占比达到23.61%。\n文盲率（15岁以上）已降至2.67%，64年普查的时候，还有33.58%。\n北京大学生最多，10个里面有4.2个，上海第二梯队，3.4个\n城镇化率\n全国平均城镇化率63.89%【居住在城镇】，公安部户籍人口城镇化率45.4%，相较于2010年49.68%，2000年36.22%，前进了一大步。\n城镇化率前7名，上海（89.3%）北京（87.55%）天津（84.7%）广东（74.15%）江苏（74.44%）浙江（72.17）辽宁（72.14%），其余都在70%以下，重庆69.66%紧随其后\n人户分离人口4.93亿，总人口35%\n出生人口\n中国出生人口数据\n统计局官网是不会公布每年出生人口数量的，因为具体的数量很难精确统计，但是根据提供的年末总人口可以计算出年平均人口，然后根据出生率计算年度出生人口。\n各年度出生人口数\n二孩政策的红利于2016、2017年释放完毕后，掉头向下。2020年出生人口1200万，公安部公布为1003万，因为一些不登记，晚登记户口的，所以公安部的数据常规有偏差，且及时率在80%左右。\n原来卫生健康委公布住院分娩活体数，相对比较准，因为住院分娩率已从1996年的58.7%上升至2017年的99.9%。根据卫生计生统计数据，2016年全年住院分娩活产数为1846万人，2017年为1758万。2018年后，机构改革后承担计划生育职能的国家卫生健康委并未再专门向媒体发布全年住院分娩活产数，而是采用国家统计局的数据。不过，在《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》中，2018年全国住院分娩活产数(包括户籍和非户籍)显示为1521万，2019年为1455万，与统计局数据相差不大。\n\n有人诟病统计局常规是抽样调查，所以不准，但现在的年代，合并职能后用住院分娩数就已经差不多。\n\n2020年完成户口登记的新生儿数量较2019年少了175.5万\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"心力发展与组织塑造","url":"/%E5%BF%83%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0.html","content":"\n领导者心力发展的五个阶梯\n用己之力-勇气\n勇气之上是正能量，勇气之下是负能量。勇气能让你成为公司的核心骨干，你才具备成为英雄的一个最基本能力。什么叫英雄？英是聪慧过人，雄就是有胆识。当你有一定的智慧，又有一定胆识的时候，你就可能成为英雄。\n英雄最大的特点是用己之力，靠自己的胆识和智慧去创造价值，但英雄的心智不一定足够成熟。\n用人之力\n晋升到技术管理者时，仅仅用己之力是不够的。用人之力是科学管理理念最好的一种体现。\n用人之智\n\n从管理者晋升到领导者，要迈过一个巨大的鸿沟，因为要跨越两个维度，第一要跨越卓越这条线，第二要跨越成熟这条线。之后你会进到一个新的空间。\n领导者的核心叫做用人之智，要用那些能力比自己强的人，比你有个性，工资比你高的人，能弥补自己短板的人。你能不能做到引领和包容，做不到你就成不了一个优秀的领导者。\n推动你走向这个位置的思想是价值思维，从全局出发去看问题，要考虑整个组织价值最大化，而不是成本最优。我可以请比我收入高的人，但可解决我解决不了的问题，局部看付出代价大，整体看他帮你创造了更大的组织价值。\n用人之心\n做大做强易，做持久难，基业长青，不仅需要员工出力，出智慧，还需带领员工跟你心在一起，企业领袖可做到用人之心，这是一个更高的境界，领导者，尤其是创始人，一名技术领导者，CTO也一样，主要看的是技术人员的心有没有跟你在一起。\n\n换种说法愿不愿意跟你干，对你仰慕不仰慕，对你的管理和塑造的文化服不服，满意不满意。搞一大堆书面词，说都说不明白。\n如烹小鲜，天下熙熙，皆为利往，把利这个东西落到实处。\n\n用人之愿\n再往上发展就是精神领袖，这是更高的境界，把企业愿景和个人发展的愿景融为一体，我中有你，你中有我，同心同德同进同退。\n\n民族复兴，行业发展，针对的是驾驭高端人才\n\n心力修炼\n让别人感受到动力，不是要求别人行为发生改变就可以，这个动力是要求自己改变，通过自己的沟通，通过自己的思想，通过自己的行为，让对方感受到我（领导者）的这种力量，传递到他们身上就会形成他的自驱力。\n\n\n真诚欣赏：表扬要具体有细节，当然人分不同类型。有的人心智模型是包容型的，需要一对一的关怀和表扬；有的人性格是卓越型的，他需要的是公开的表扬，因此要学会了解不同的内心需求，区分真诚对待。\n共同利益\n包容归属和信守承诺\n直面乐观和100%投入：没有悲观的权利，不管遇到多大的困境和挑战，都必须保有信心，在所有纷繁复杂的问题中选一个出来，然后百分百解决它，把它搞定，团队的士气和信心就会被提升起来。\n理性处理\n指令清晰\n\n员工动力系统与组织塑造\n\n\n价值认同\n\n\n包容归属\n\n\n学习成长，充满希望\n\n\n管理拆开来说，管人+理事，理事就离不开工作分解，也是达成一个目标的路径能力。管人是洞察人心，拿捏人性。人性复杂，但简单来说就是趋利避害，也是同理心和换位思考能力的驱动要求。满足人性很简单：赚钱分钱，让你值钱。\n与之呼应的员工槽点\n员工的槽点一般集中在三处：工作意义，工作环境，个人价值成长。工作环境这个有必要做些外延，除了物理硬环境，氛围文化软环境更为重要。这些槽点摇身一变同样是激励驱动因子。\n最能激励员工的因素\n是否感受到上司真正关心自己的发展和利益\n肩并肩，不要面对面\n跟自己的团队成员站在一起，跟他一个视角去看问题，不要形成对抗和冲突，冲突会极大地消耗组织的精力和能力，跟员工并肩作战是非常重要的一种心态或一种方式。\nZ世代确有不同\n现在多数是90后居多，00后也开始进入职场。90后在马斯洛需求理论中，需求层级是高维的。90后出生就未经历贫穷，他们的需求是爱，尊重和自我实现。做事时赋予意义是至关重要的。\n计划设定-让事情发生的能力\n\n专业设计，把做这个事情的专业能力设计出来\n组织设计，关键岗位的人员和能力支撑你去完成你的设计\n沟通设计，利益相关者，高层抑或是底层员工，用不同的方式讲清楚你要干什么，给他们塑造意义\n\n在一个专业公司做成一个事情，能把项目或组织目标按上面的维度分解，是简洁清晰的，故收录记下\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队"]},{"title":"悦己觉醒","url":"/%E6%82%A6%E5%B7%B1%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92.html","content":"\n悦己觉醒\n提悦己消费就不得不提到某个对立面词汇「舔狗经济」，舔狗经济大白话说，为了讨好喜欢的人而产生的消费经济。也可以说荷尔蒙经济。\n之前有一个有趣现象，每到情人节和 520，总能在二手平台看到大量『舔狗礼物』，如全新 IPhone，未拆封的口红套装，高档包包，这些东西背后，往往有一段「舔狗故事」。而到了近几年，舔狗经济有式微的趋势，**25 年新华社 App 也发了文章《“舔狗经济”退烧，拒绝PUA》，这明显是配合生育率压力的宣传。**棋局形势有变，棋子的使用方式应有所变化，宣发就自然配合。\n\n舔狗这样说：不敢聊，一聊她就肚子饿了，手机屏碎了，香水没了，粉底液没了，生日到了，房租到期了，好像我给她聊的家徒四壁一样！\n\n节日太多，舔狗舔不动了；腰包瘪了，舔狗没钱舔。年轻人都在卷，焦虑烧光了情欲，少年心事重重，哪有心情玩舔狗这档子事。除开消费，也体现在婚恋观念上，中国结婚率持续走低，年轻人对婚姻的热情在降温，单身挺好的，钱花在自己身上， 开心又自在。\n舔狗经济失灵，是社会观念觉醒，消费理性回归，个体价值重塑与媒介环境净化的综合体现。越来越多人开始关注自我成长和内心需求，不再愿意为了迎合他人而牺牲自我尊严和利益，更加注重自我价值实现和内心满足感的获得。\n\n回首历史\n大洋对岸渡过上世纪70年代滞涨期后，从 80 年代起，美利坚各大媒体和电视台就开始疯狂宣传消费主义：女人就应该漂漂亮亮的，投资自己；男人就应该开好车，戴一块有品味的表。把各种消费行为融进电影中，潜移默化改变民众的认知，通过持续洗脑，漂亮国的民众们渐渐从爱储蓄变成了爱消费。\n同样的套路在中国上演，但有不同的是，我们国内的男性似乎在消费领域相当理智，面对这种特殊的国情，资本只能改变策略，主攻女性市场。从 2010 年开始，所有的节日都成了消费的由头，更凭空出现了许多以前从未有过的节日，白色情人节，3.7 女神节，520 节，更荒唐的还有秋天的第一杯奶茶等。\n女性收入整体偏低些，兜里收割的有限，资本曲线救国，通过女性来收割男性，例如男人就该赚钱养家，女人只需负责貌美如花；爱她就应该把卡给她刷；给女生买礼物是基本项，而不是加分项；家是讲爱的地方，不是讲理的地方；这些言论目的两个发力方向：\n\n利用女性更感性这一特点，让她们觉得花钱是天经地义的事，花男人的钱更是天经地义的事，你既然爱我，给我花钱不是应该的吗\n通过道德绑架，让男性也觉得应该给女性花钱。对于硬骨头男性，资本搬出男性比女性多 3000 万这事，告诉你男性本来就卷，那不活该单身吗。把不会提供情绪价值的男性叫直男，把不送礼不转账的男性叫穷屌丝。别人能给的你给不了，那你就处于了弱势。\n\n达到了这两大目的，一个完美收割闭环就完成了。最疯狂的那几年，朋友圈非常流行晒转账，各种 5201314，清空购物车。\n贬低与捧杀\n除了贬低男性，对女性的捧杀也同时在进行。老一辈人普遍不愿意欠人东西，无功不受禄，这才是正确价值观。而今他们把普通女孩子称作小仙女，称作小主，普通男性则成为穷屌丝。毫无逻辑的拉踩行为把原来处于同一水平的两个人，拉到堪比主仆的位置上，这样收钱也心安理得。\n没有公主的命，却落下了一身公主的病。在择偶的时候也总觉得别人都配不上自己，只有出手阔绰的公子哥才入得了自己的法眼，但公子哥只会租赁女性，他们确实会送礼物，更会提供情绪价值，还会表现的非常尊重女性，但他们没想着跟她们结婚。被租赁过的女性觉得自己被金钥匙开过，那自己就是一把金锁了，往后再择偶时，标准会不自觉升高，连带她的闺蜜也升高标准，毕竟闺蜜间也要攀比。\n\n男性在进化过程中是猎人，他们的目标是更大的猎物（放到现代就换成了赚更多钱、更高的职位），然后带回家。男性天生不具有给别人创造情绪价值的能力，除非花费精力培养和训练。\n男人的大部分能量交给了生存和斗争，所以和女人相处时更倾向于尽量减少麻烦，二次元也是这样一种体现。男性大多数不会喜欢有个性的女主，就像多数男性喜欢宝钗而不是黛玉，因为林代表更多的麻烦和损耗，薛代表了帮你解决麻烦。\n\n城市化+经济地位提升，获得与男性竞争同样的地位和水平，合力催化使得单身女性越来越多，单身人群中求偶意愿却女性高过男性，相亲角都是女性。资本不会报道这样的消息。因为这种消息只会加速舔狗经济的消亡，从而影响资本的收益。\n\n实际上女人是吸引来的，不是追求来的。你自己过得越好，对方会觉得靠近你也会过得好。\n钱这种东西是花给孩子和孩子的妈的，不是花给女朋友的。\n\n观念转型与个体价值崛起\n独立性与自我实现：00 后更注重个人成长和生活质量，婚姻和生育不再是人生必选项。上海的调查中，57.44%的未婚未恋青年对恋爱『不感兴趣』，更追求精神自由。00 后生长在全球化和信息化的时代，获取知识途径多样化，对世界的认知和视野更为广阔（包括世界各地婚姻模式），社交网络的普及让大家更易于产生同好群体的链接，更易形成小群体的支持。\n大家都更关注自我价值的实现，会思考，更多想的是我怎么想的，为我而活，思考出发点是能带给我什么？新生代除了工作和吃饭，倾注在个人爱好上的时间很多。面对恋爱，时常会发出灵魂一问：是手机不好玩吗，为什么要去谈恋爱呢?\n婚姻自由\n舔狗经济崩盘的底层是传统婚姻制度面临瓦解。但也没有必要“从此不相信爱情了”，就算人人刷手机的今天，依旧有人捧着纸质书来读。\n这一切背后，其实反映了社会的深刻变化，结婚生子不再是年轻人必然的选择，近两年结婚人数断崖式下跌，24 年前三季度，全国结婚登记数量 474 万对，创下近 40 年新低，晚婚甚至不婚以成为普遍现象。\n年轻人对婚恋的态度发生了改变，加之就业压力，房价高企，与其把钱花在『追求别人』上，不如多投资自己。这背后是既是消费观念的转变，也是社会文化变化的缩影，是社会观念的一次转型。以前，男追女是天经地义，而现在，年轻人越来越务实，逐渐意识到，感情不是靠砸钱就能换来的。不再盲目追求仪式感，而是更注重实际的幸福感。这一切算是健康恋爱观和消费观的再度弘扬。\n你这一生的第一使命就是让自己幸福，积极健康的恋爱关系也应该如此。\n新生代的压力\n\n社会的发展给大家提供了更多的选择和自由，但也带来了前所未有的竞争和压力。前几代人对婚育的观念，深受传统文化影响，不仅是个人选择，更是家族的延续。\n\n00 后00 后从小就被寄予厚望，父母期待他们通过努力实现阶层跃升，高考，升学，就业，每步都充满了激烈的竞争和较量。父母为孩子的教育和未来投入了大量的时间、精力和金钱，反过来也带来了巨大的精神压力。\n动物在条件不好的时候，只迁徙不生育，是动物界的规律。我们今天的环境不足以让大家觉得生育对我来讲是有意义的，是我们的环境变了，不是人变了。迁徙是逃避，生育是留守。在重压下逃避是更容易的选择，如果大家不愿留守，只说明我们要改变环境，让孩子们重拾信心，人口学就是一切。\n婚恋市场金钱化\n国内充满了资本主义的生活方式和思维逻辑，传统男欢女爱被腐蚀侵袭也是很自然的事情。改开发展取得了巨大成就，财富获得空前增长，但有利就有弊，由此带来的亲情感情爱情物质化显而易见。\n舔狗背后的经济逻辑是通过某人追求自己换取经济利益，将荷尔蒙和传宗接代拿来讨价还价甚至是生财之道。贫富差距不断拉大的现实促进如今婚恋市场过度金钱化，每个人都身在其中，却又无法改变。富人希望强强联合不吃亏，穷人希望狠狠赚上一笔，或者空手套白狼，实在不行就躺平。背后都是人性，利益和交换。\n这些会导致一些年轻人结不起婚，直到财富不断集中到极少数富人手中，穷人则被迫从肉体上消失，加上人工智能的发展和普及，最终这个世界变成少数有钱人的伊甸园，也绝不是危言耸听。\n结构性失衡\n类比结构性粮荒：通常是短缺引发恐慌屯粮，不良商家哄抬粮价，直到 20%买不起粮食的人饿死，从而达到供需新平衡。如今婚恋市场被同一逻辑支配，基本面是男多女少，且媒体持续渲染，恐慌传递导致雄竞加剧，彩礼车房压力，很多男性望而却步，资源短缺催生行为扭曲，捞女横行，同时极端女权鼓吹激化男女对立。\n结果部分男性主动去责任化，或在雄竞失败后被动放弃，同样部分女性也如此，就如大龄慕强投机女，溢价泡沫破裂后滞销，虽然男女比例还是失衡，但每个代际都有主动或被动退出的人，如经历一场粮荒后达到新的平衡。\n未来是会演进成老死不相往来的日服，还是极度利己绝对平等的韩服，亦或是非婚共生的北欧服，并不知道，因为中国向来走自己的特殊化因地制宜道路，一切有待观察。\n发散一下\n卡死性资源\n性资源的稀缺性是如何影响社会的？你要获得性资源，只有一个合法途径，那就是结婚，结婚你就要买房子，这样就会拉动消费，带动社会经济。\n扫黄不仅仅是道德问题，而是一场利益博弈，背后也是对性资源的控制战，根本目的就是让性这种资源变得不易获得，至少对普通人而言不易获得（嫖娼被严厉打击，保养却被容忍）。对中国这个国情和传统，性资源供给稀缺，尤其对普通年轻男性，需求极大，能享受到的人极少。保持性资源的稀缺，才能让你去奋斗，让驴拉磨时前面总要挂个胡萝卜一样。如果色情产业也合法了，很多人真的不会选择去努力工作(不高的费用就可以满足核心需求，还可以随意更换技师，这样普通的工薪阶层都能满足需求，那样谁还会为了生活拼命工作呢？谁还会内卷)。这年头，要是你真打定主义不结婚不买房真不需要多拼命，而包养小姑娘的人本来也不需要你去整天敦促他去奋斗赚钱。\n一千个失足女搞不好都可以搞崩一个小城市的房地产，这绝对是不可接受的。多对一的服务模式，会迅速扩大市场供给，影响全社会的性资源供需平衡，包养是 1 对1的服务模式，不会对整个市场造成重大影响。\n\n一个失足女性一天内最多可接待 20-30 名客户，假设每天工作 8 小时，只接待 8 位客户，一周工作 5 天，一个月 22 天则一个月就可以提供 176 次服务，1w 名则可提供 176w 次服务，可覆盖上百万男性的需求（足以让一个普通三线城市的大部分劳动力失去斗志，甚至拖垮地方经济）\n\n如果不扫黄，可能就不会存在天价彩礼。彩礼高的问题难以解决，根源也在性资源的供需失衡，甚至也是阳谋的一部分，避免一般年轻人轻易满足而选择躺平，从而影响整个社会的活力，而富人对彩礼问题并不在乎。\n底层男性是不是资源？是不是有人力资源，自带干粮修长城的人，在秦始皇眼里是不是资源，是！\n女性的自我物化\n性资源这一词从内因上讲来自于女性的自我物化，从古至今全世界普遍都是，只有少部分女性在权钱威胁下宁死不屈。\n\n古代女性没有自我物化的条件和选择，她们一般是被上位者物化的，所以批评古代青楼没问题。\n但现在的风俗产业呢？包括上门按摩，现代具有青楼属性的女子，即使有不得已的原因，大部分也是自愿去的，大多数是自我物化，自己明码标价，待价而沽的。在感受到个人奋斗很辛苦后，相当一部分女性会选择出卖性资源来获取生存和利益，是两害相权取其轻，也是物质主义的一个表现。\n\n爱的淡化和稀释，是男女共同作用的。女性会普遍跟随从雄竞中成功出来的男性，而实际上好老公不一定符合物质化的标准，而男性要在这样剧烈的社会达尔文环境中脱颖而出，只能变得冷血残酷，否则几乎不可能成功和掌控资源。女性屈服于资源和权钱，同样是爱小于物的表现。男女都一样现实。\n性操控与ED\n生活里的一切都和性有关， 除了性本身，性更关乎权力。你做很多事情，往细里看，都是在追求一个多巴胺刺激，性本身里面还混杂着占有，臣服，操控等，确实还有些权力的意味。本质上，性和武器，金钱，权力一样，都是一种掣肘别人，拿捏别人的利器。\n\n一个绝色美女，她的姿色，对大多数男人来讲就是一把夺命刀。本质上就是一种能玩精神操控的权力，可杀人于无形。只要一个男人没有 ED，那他就身处这种权力的辐射范围，始终受制于这种脑控。\n倒转过来也一样成立，男 Idol 的核武器是什么，本质上就是在供应一种性幻想。\n\n我们反过来想，假设一个男人现在 ED 了，充血少年开始支棱不起来了，看上去立地成佛了，也可以理解是脱敏了，解放了，人生搞不好别有洞天了。本来拿捏你的那股无形权力，现在威胁不到你了，框不住你了，塞翁失马，你反而获得了另一种意义上的解放和自由。你的闲者时间，那种松弛和平静，是不是非常超脱，这玩意比多巴胺脉冲，更高级。当然这违背了雄性生物学的意义，所谓死道友，无死贫道，ED 只能是失意中年男人的一种福报。\n\n在华尔街之狼里教了一个成事狠招，为了让你保持头脑清醒，思路清晰，建议你每天释放一下，而且是 twice，很极端。相当于人为制造了一场间歇性 ED，从浴壑难填直接挥刀变成六根清净。话虽粗俗，但本质上是在聊一种屏蔽力，跟闭关更容易修行差不多一个意思，有奇效。\n这种世界上很多事情正着看是诅咒，反过来看，它可能成为一种福报。\n\n婚姻的意义\n父母得以喘息\n婚姻可以让父母得以解脱，跟子女一起，她那么大了永远当孩子，让父母有种绑定的感觉，让父母的生命无法喘息。父母也先是自己，再是别的角色。不要把亲子关系脱离人性美化了。\n如果孩子很自立，自给自足，生活开心。你做父母的还焦虑，那就是被传统思想和社会舆论影响了。\n养育的神经递质\n多巴胺更多是一种兴奋剂（兴奋过后就会产生空虚烦躁这类负面情绪）。真正和幸福相关的神经递质是 内啡肽和催产素。这两种都不是容易获得的。\n\n对于常人来说，内啡肽获得需要经过压力、痛苦、困难、成就感才能主动分泌产生\n催产素则需要亲子配偶之间的亲密关系才能促进分泌。\n\n养育过程中肯定是困难重重的，但是这也正是内啡肽分泌的主要条件，而养育过程中培养出的良好的亲子关系则是催产素分泌的条件。男性的劳动参与程度更高，有时候还可以靠事业的成功来获得一些内啡肽，女性的幸福感大部分还是来自于育儿过程，这本就是自然规律。\n亲密关系的人生作用\n人类是群居动物，与人要有链接。有一天你会发现人生到了一定节点后，不仅没有方向，也没有重点和支点，也就是这个世界不需要你，你也没有什么值得操心的事了，你茕($q\\acute{i}ong$)茕孑($j\\acute{i}e$)立自己一个人在这个世界上，生也好，死也好，没人在乎，会觉得特别孤独，要找寻价值感，另外也会有性的生理需求，解决这些个问题有多种办法：\n\n你可以很有钱买体验，买服务，买东西，用钱充实投资自己。\n你若是个企业家，也不会孤独或缺少价值，也有成长，性资源也不缺。\n\n但普通人成为特蕾莎修女或成为企业家都很难，婚姻生子是最容易解决这些问题的方法，亲密关系是一个很好的自我成长过程，这个叫做镜中我，亲密关系中的冲突解决帮助我们改进我们自己，养育孩子不是单向的给予，是生命与生命的相互淬炼。看似被消耗的光阴，实际上我们以最隐秘的方式参与着宇宙的自我认知，人类对存在的追问在新的瞳孔中获得新生。单身也很好，但如果你想更丰富的体验，此为一个普通人最容易参与的方案。\n参考\n1.网易 舔狗经济崩盘”，底层其实是婚姻制度崩盘 ↩2.观察者网 晚婚市镇乡差异 ↩","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"情商这玩意","url":"/%E6%83%85%E5%95%86%E8%BF%99%E7%8E%A9%E6%84%8F.html","content":"\n此文来自一次培训，觉得京东大学的讲师还是把知识串接的挺棒的，不光有理论，还有自己的真实经验，且没有保留，多少改变了我对情商的认识或建立了我对情商的认识。\n转移到情商的定义上来：来自亚里士多德的观点，每个人都会发脾气，这非常容易，但是把脾气发在对的人身上，用对的程度在对的时间，为了对的目的，运用对的方法，却不容易。\n\nAnyone can be angry,that is easy.But to be angry with the right person to the right degree at the right time, for the right purpose and in the right way, that is not easy\n\n情绪绑架你躲不开\n道理谁都懂，可就是办不到。这过程中，你就是与你的原始大脑对抗不过\n\n理性脑与情绪脑的脱离，200w年的大脑和5000w年的大脑部分达不成一致，所以人痛苦。人再经过5000w年，三脑可以合一，反应都达到毫秒级 (一亿年的脑干和5000w年的中脑已经可以认为已合并)\n\n\n情绪的反应是毫秒级-微表情的反应是毫秒级，它会泄露你的秘密，故才有测谎仪，才有《FBI教你读心术》这本书。只有高手才能转移微表情，通过训练，转移到没那么容易观察到的角落。例如你内向不适合当众讲话，会紧张脸红，可以转移这些微表情到到捏拳头，若还容易被察觉，可以转移到脚趾头抓地。\n2秒钟左右大脑皮层(理性大脑)产生干预。大脑皮层有反应到情商起作用，要6秒钟时间，这比2秒的干预启动还要慢些。还有一个60秒圣境（我当前的60秒圣境是与家人在游轮上），能让你平静调整到最美好的心态来处理事情，这时你最聪明。\n情商启动时间在秒级，所以你不可能控制情绪，只能察觉，理解和管理。我们讨论情商的最终目的，也是想发挥情商的最大作用【不后悔或洋洋得意】\n带情绪说话和不带情绪，能量差24倍。\n1112，1718岁最容易出现情绪绑架，可能在激素的作用或大脑快速发育过程中，理性脑和情绪脑产生脱离，pheromone真的很厉害。\n发散谈一下，在教育小孩过程中，要多做延迟满足训练。这样的小孩儿长大后能更好的应对复杂情况的能力。【每天目击那么多宠爱，这恶习肿么破】\n大脑最高级的功能，乃白日梦也\n大脑有三大功能，记忆(最初级)，思考，想象(白日梦，最有价值的模块)，当前第六代时间管理已推崇更多时间到想象，清空大脑是第一步。\n带团队过程中把大家的想象调动起来，这种力量最有用。放松的时候最利于想象，深圳有午休的习惯，故利于想象创新。而京东的同事也不午休，太紧张，只能做安全不出错的事情。\n通过想象(视觉化训练)把未知的领域拉进自己的范畴。在体育领域最常用明显，想象自己要学的新动作。未知的自己也是自己，就像你去面试时能看到某些年轻人后续的发展可能一样(可能会像自己公司的某位同事，但被面试者认识不到)\nSelf_Talk 实际日常中的理论体现\n正常人一天给自己说4000句，自我对话。希望能整理出10句对自己最有用或常用的self talk，救命时用的。\n一天 = 一生，先要察觉到自己每天的4000句都是些什么。\n万达主题乐园的领到4000元月薪的一线员工，有客户对其服务反馈时，是会真诚的笑的，而不是职业的笑。然而迪斯尼的员工不关心客户的考评，而是真诚的喜欢这份工作，但他们的薪水是1w块的。\n曾经做了一首歌让新员工每天唱，这也是一种形式的self talk，对人来进行筛选(初期这个歌曲产品的预期有效期是半年，也就是半年能完成人员淘汰筛选)。这就像常听歌，某些歌词能让你发生变化一样。\n软化自己的壳儿\n已知的自己和未知的自己之间有一个硬硬的壳儿，你甚至可以只向自己提难题但不思考回答。类似于向潜意识的自己(未知的自己)提问和学习，反正已知的自己是解决不了，何必费劲，潜意识的自己你能帮我解决就解决。\n你能利用自己的潜意识或团队的潜意识来解决复杂的问题吗？睡觉刚起来的时候，这个壳儿可能最软，存在于一个坚硬的自己将要回来接管的这么一个时刻。\n放松冥想，让潜意识的自己找到答案。情绪是一种强大的能量。\n与世界的四种认知关系\n\n\n我是世界的中心(自信)，我是世界的边缘(自卑)，我在世界之外(跳出画面来看)，我无处不在(瞬移)。\n\n大部分人在一二状态中间反复流转，完成碌碌无为的download的人生。\n好有意思的四维说法，我在世界之外，我无处不在。（当时讲师的说法并没有照搬网上的拗口的我中我，你中我等说法，是一种认真的面向主题和受众的姿态，所以我才觉得此次培训印象深刻吧）\n结语\n课堂上听到薇姐的一句self_talk, 颇为欣赏，正能量美好无比：\n\n我们的征程是星辰大海。\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理","软技能"]},{"title":"我们到底知道多少之意念的力量","url":"/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html","content":"\nWater is the most reciptive of the four elements，perhaps it would response to non-phicial events. A true experiment is taken like this. Print out the words of good meaning such as &quot;love&quot;, bad meaning words such as &quot;kill&quot;, separately tape them to bottles of distilled water and let them out overnight. when photo the water molecules（分子） of these two bottles, they appear very diffent Image, the water molecules with good words are symmetry, beautiful, but the other is ugly and horrible. Thought or intent becomes the driving force in all of this. The science of how that actually affects the molecules is unknown, except to the water molecules, of courese. And it&#x27;s really fascinating when you keep in mind that 90% of our bodies are water. It thoughts can do that to water, imaging thought can do what to us!\n\n以上的一段，来自于大概7年前（2007），当在观看纪录片&lt;我们到底知道多少时&gt;受触动改述的一段来自水分子的思维实验。曾几何时，还想用在找工作的英文自我介绍时，当时写了个不完整版。今天我看到那份缺少词汇不太连贯的草稿时，索性就把它完成了。草稿也可以扔掉了，再也没有保存的意义。\n思维的力量，在毕业时刻左右，曾是自己的信念基石之一，用以自我说服，非邪恶的信念，对于个体的生活坚挺是非常有意义的\n就算是现在写完的这段，随着英语的生疏，不免有语法错误，句病，也不太所谓了。看到草稿时，还惊奇7年前的自己还用了一些复杂的衔接连贯与介词短语+进行时的语法，呵呵，让我再来一遍，恐怕都不敢耍了吧，：）\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"我所理解的生活","url":"/%E6%88%91%E6%89%80%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB.html","content":"\n\n摘录改写自韩寒的博客文章《我所理解的生活》\n\n我所理解的生活，它不是攀爬高山，也不是深潜海沟，而是做着自己喜欢的事情，并能养活自己，养活家人。\n不觉得留有遗憾是一种缺憾美，相比之下，干砸了倒是一种美。每个人喜欢的事情，肯定不止一两件，只是有些做的不够好，有些做得很失败。和朋友聊天时，你可以直接说，这事我特喜欢，也干过，但我真的不合适，丢人了。\n完全可以嗤鼻于说要是我去干这事一定比某某好的人，在台面上见过我成功一次，那么在台面下我就干砸过十次。\n当你决定喜欢干，那么就信奉下一句：干砸不可怕，又没死，不停的干就行了，因为人们只会记住你成功的那一次。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"扒家底看大佬发展","url":"/%E6%89%92%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%95%E7%9C%8B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95.html","content":"\n出身草根的大佬占比并不高，就像2000年来泥腿子当皇帝的就两个，汉与明。两个都还出在特定的知识分子庙堂无出路的年代。除了卵巢彩票，一个普通人最大的机遇在于婚姻，上大学提供的跃迁其实都不及婚姻大。\n\n骆驼成功穿越沙漠，成为野外生存专家，讲了很多技能，又强调说坚持和努力更重要（这些都对），就是不说自己有驼峰，所有的成功的秘诀都是很难复制的，也不会外传\n\n扒了一下企业界大佬们的情况，发现祖传的天分，几代人的经验积累，耳濡目染的传承（素质、资源或成长条件），远超寻常农民子弟的成功几率，能更早更充分具有超越一般人的从商的意愿、见识，办事的能力。\n\n王石年轻时参军，上大学，找工作和创业，都离不开家里的背景；柳传志的父亲在他早期或者联想早期发展过程中都起了不小的作用；\n周鸿祎王兴都是中国第一批用上电脑和互联网的人，雷军可从村办小学转到县城名校，张一鸣从小听父母讨论各种科研，发明；马化腾14岁就可以买天文望远镜；冯仑从小就能看到图书馆大量的书，包括“仅供内幕批判”的读物，都离不开家庭条件的支撑。\n更何况，每天饭桌上的交谈，待人接物的言传身教，不同家庭不啻天壤之别。精英家庭讨论国家政策对家庭的什么利好时，农村家庭可能又在讨论家里的老母猪又生了一窝，孩子每天要早起一小时多打一篮猪草回来。\n\n当然事情并不绝对，李彦宏，俞敏洪，张小龙，王传福等人的成功，也证实，天道不绝，终留一线。\n\n不要抱怨祖辈没给自己一个好出身，不如自己奋斗，给孩子一个好出身。\n上层精英\n政界&amp;国企领导干部\n王石\n父亲王辉是大别山老红军，王震下属，母亲是45年参加革命的东北锡伯人。解放后，父亲官居郑州铁路局副局长，母亲是郑州火车站副站长，前岳父王宁是广东省委副书记（历任广东省公安厅厅长，政法委主任，省省顾委主任等）\n柳传志\n父亲柳谷书解放前是上海金融系统地下工作者，解放后曾参与中国人民银行筹建工作，后来在中侨委，贸促会等部门任职，退休后派驻贸促会香港公司负责人。是新中国第2号律师证持有人和中国知识产权事业的开创者，当然近年爆发联想贸工技和流失国有资产争论后，也有人扒其更久的祖上就是买办阶层干下不少难以难说和证实的勾当\n任正非\n父亲任摩逊虽只是中学校长，退休前是都匀市政协副主席，这不重要，其岳父才关键。其前岳父是四川省副省长，后来任成为深圳南海石油集团下属的一家电子公司的经理，在之前孟军已成为了深圳南海石油集团的一名高管。\n\n孟晚舟的母亲孟军其实也一直旅居加拿大\n\n只是碰到造成公司损失200w，任老被南海石油集团开除，孟军也与他离婚（二任妻子是其秘书）。从哪跌倒从哪爬起，创立华为，代理销售交换机，华为的早期成功相信也少不了助力。\n王健林\n父亲 王义全 参加过长征 、抗日战争 、解放战争 ，曾官至西藏自治区副主席、四川省委组织部副部长。岳父林连章参加革命比他父亲还早一年，也是老革命，职位也是很好。\n马化腾\n父亲马陈术退休后（准确说是下海创业）是深圳盐田港集团董事，副总经理。之前本身就是中国电子商务部下面电子商务中心一个二级公司的财务总负责人，开奔驰600给小马做财务。小时候马在海南生活较长一段时间（出生于海南东方市八所港，出生前一个月林彪叛国坠机），大学又赶上89学潮，本来的可上清华或复旦的高分，在父母的担忧下都留在了深圳这块土地–深圳大学。造成了深圳大学最好的一届生源。\n\n八所港是海南岛最西端，居民以苗族为主，小城里很多人脸上刺青，背着硕大的竹箩，蹲在滴雨的屋檐下，南中国海海港夜空特别清澈，繁星如织，能勾起人们无穷好奇与想象，使人们深感自身的渺小。在海南的童年生活必然深深影响了马化腾的性格，包括爱天文的爱好。\n\n慧多网（FidoNet）的“马站”是较豪华的，4条电话线，8台电脑，同时可接受4位用户的传送申请，当时电话初装费是很贵的，8000元一架，其姐姐在电话公司，申请了半价优惠，整体还是花了近5万元，将其出售股票行情软件的钱都花了进去。\n\n在马站长等人的推动下，96年初求伯君在珠海架起了“西线”站点，5月雷军在北京创建了“西点”站点。\n\n\n最早开发了通过寻呼机接收电波里股票行情，并用单板机实现转码通过串口接到电脑上去，称为“股霸卡”，标价8000，最后降到4000，成本是1000，在华强北卖掉几十套，赚了一点钱。\n\n经济背景\n曹德旺\n曾祖父是地方首富，父亲是在海外赚了大钱的归侨，三四十年代就在上海开夜总会和（永安）百货公司，母亲是一个地主的小女儿。不过解放前返回福建老家时，人安全回去了，一船的财产不见了。父亲跑路去上海留下母亲一个人带几个孩子。\n后来父亲也回来了，父子俩搞投机倒把赚了一些钱，在改革开放之初靠倒卖木耳已积攒6w块，但那时候不是你想干啥就干啥，他深知只能做政府允许做的事情，那就是想办工厂，但私人不能开厂。曹就帮政府办厂，自己干自己擅长的采购，做了水表玻璃厂，很会来事很会搞交际。\n后来厂子不行了，就拍胸脯承包，不管盈亏，给政府每年交6w块钱。业务不断扩展时，跑业务知道汽车玻璃当时巨贵巨赚钱，可能200块钱的本卖4000，这就下定决定技术攻关，花2w块钱买淘汰的旧图纸，找不到解决方案就一直开会不让走。\n功夫不负有心人，生产投放市场了，200块的成本卖1000，一下把日本人的玻璃市场慢慢干趴了，搭上了汽车高速增长的国内市场，也做到了不被外国人卡脖子，这点上其功不可没。\n黄光裕\n祖父是大地主，外祖父家族是泰国著名侨商，母亲家里有制油作坊，经常给黄光裕兄弟讲祖辈如何经商致富的故事。\n王兴\n祖父是福建龙岩二中教导主任，龙岩市歌舞团编剧，但文革期间受迫害自杀。祖母是厦门大学经济系毕业生，师从著名经济学家王亚南（厦大校长，《资本论》中文版译者）\n父亲王苗是龙岩市水泥大王，亿万富翁。其本人也不纨绔，清华毕业。\n文化跨界\n马云\n父亲马来法是浙江省曲艺家协会主席，母亲崔文彩是评弹演员，虽然父亲行政级别只在正处副厅之间，但曲协主席这个位子在浙江省文化界举足轻重，也能接触到地方上政商两届高层人士。不可否认马云的能力，但在读书的时间段能2年杭州市学联主席完全无力量加持也不一定。后来又拿外经贸部的offer，借部里平台开发外经贸部官方网站，网上中国商品交易市场，后来的掘金过程也是有目共睹。\n\n赵本山独霸春晚十余载，用只在辽宁曲协混个副主席。所以你说这不算个啥真说不过去。关晓彤是曾任北京曲协主席关学曾的孙女，还那么多人捧呢。\n\n马云家里的领导家庭出身中医家庭，岳父后升任地级市区级医院院长，但网上传说其舅舅曾身处本省高位，难以求实，权当一个看资吧。以马云的过人表达能力加上亲爹的加持，就足以开闯一番事业了\n一般精英\n公务员\n丁磊\n父亲是一位宁波科研机构工程师，受父亲影响，从小就喜欢无线电，出生于蒋介石的家乡，留存着大量传统乡绅文化和新儒家精神的痕迹。“不以物喜不以己悲”，“君子坦荡荡，小人长戚戚”是父母常对丁磊说的话。89年考进电子科技大，与马化腾是同年生人也是同级。毕业后进入宁波市电信局，是慧多网前100名用户之一，只是没像马化腾一样开设自己的（深圳）站点，而是利用电信局免费的线路资源，成为一个“中继器”，帮各地网游交换信包，在那时，知道了深圳的马化腾，95年无法忍受平淡乏味的生活，“开除自己”去了南方，拜访了几位网上已十分熟捻却从未见面的网友，看看他们到底长什么样，有什么稀奇的想法。在深圳，遇到了同样焦躁没有方向的小马站长。\n95年5月先加入sybase广州，成为技术支持工程师，一年后跳到一家叫飞捷的ISP，用火鸟程序搭了一个BBS系统，告别了相对小众的惠多网。96年注意到免费电邮系统hotmail被微软以4亿美元收购，意识到电子邮箱是一个前途无量的基础服务，拿出50万积蓄，注册了有3名员工的网易公司，与华南理工大二学生陈磊华一起，开发出了第一套中文免费电子邮箱系统，成了第一个赚到真金白银的互联网界创业者。用119万的价格卖给了广州电信旗下的飞华网，后来各地电信公司开办的“信息港”，纷纷向他采购，每套10w美金，很快丁三石就成了百万富翁。\n张朝阳\n64年陕西临潼人，比马云小一个多月，父母都是上世纪5，60年代的老牌大学生（多少人的爷爷辈或爷爷的父辈都是文盲），父亲是某医院的副院长，母亲是儿科医生，从小家庭算是优渥，从小偶像就是科学家。86年毕业于清华大学物理系（17岁考上），同年考取李政道奖学金赴美留学，93年在MIT获博士学位后（在美在玩乐上花了大量时间，功课却一直没落下），在MIT继续博后研究，后被互联网【94年雅虎出现震惊无数人，96年上市】迷住决定放弃成为一个“李政道式的物理学家”的理想，投身于更让人激动的数字化生存，95年31岁，回到北京想做一个叫中国在线（china online）的项目，找不到网站模式照搬雅虎，请人开发中文搜索引擎，起名搜狐，当雅虎的表兄弟，于98年正式推出。\n\n第一笔风险投资来自MIT媒体实验室主任尼葛洛庞帝教授和斯隆商学院爱德华·罗伯特教授，17万美元\n第二笔也是在天使投资方的斡旋引荐下获得，220多万\n\n程维\n滴滴创始人，父亲是江西铅山县公务员，母亲是数学老师。毕业于北京化工大学，在阿里巴巴工作业绩出色晋升为最年轻的区域经理，大量的客户拜访累计了扎实的销售能力和经验。据他说其高中数学很好，但在高考时竟然忘记翻开试卷最后一页，漏做三道大题，结果考上不怎么知名的化工大学，想学信息技术专业被调剂到商业管理专业。\n张一鸣\n毕业于南开大学，父亲是福建龙岩市科委普通干部，母亲是护士。后来父母下海到东莞开电子产品加工厂，但生意做的不大。但道听途说其父辈的好朋友也是大佬，在外面遇到资本贵人，做大之后仿佛背后有高人指点。\n周鸿祎\n父亲周学斌和母亲胡少先均毕业于武汉测绘学院（现武汉大学测绘学院），同为河南省测绘局工作人员。挚爱阅读，物理老师用个人名义给三所大学写信，意外接到西安交大的通知，没有参加高考就去了西安交大。\n李国庆\n北京文科状元，家境殷实，父母文化水平不高，但皆食公禄，出生在北京人声鼎沸的国庆节，注定是个性格热烈高调的人。83年成为费孝通在北大社会学系的第一届学生，大学里风生水起（学生会副主席），学生活动中存在感极强，也是他直至今日一直在寻找的（87年崔健被封杀，他跟同学创办首届艺术节还请崔健到北大礼堂唱《一无所有》）。大二写了一本28万字的《中国社会改造之我见》，浪漫热血，最终开成一朵奇葩。\n高中虽学文科，离开也不错，数学竞赛二等奖，化学竞赛三等奖照拿，从小一直是“别人家的孩子”，据其自述初中教材发下来一周就自学完了一学期的课程，并把课后习题全做完交给老师。初二初三还上台给同学们讲课。\n教育背景好，毕业就去国务院发展研究中心工作，后又在农村政策研究室工作。\n其老婆俞渝父母家庭一般（家住商务印书馆和中华书局的大院，门口就有新华书店，棍棒教育女儿），其个人比较隐忍克制，又充满勇气不惧困难。\n两人的特点都是童年以书相伴，一个租书看，一个据说年幼时常担心父母会命丧书架。\n史玉柱\n安徽怀远人，父亲是警察，母亲是工人。18岁怀远县状元身份考入浙大数学系，但在图书馆看了《数论》后了解到数学是那么的难，放弃了成为陈景润的理想选择了计算数学的方向。84年毕业分配到安徽省统计局工作，其回忆此举觉得挺荒唐，数学不是加减乘除，数学系主要是逻辑是大脑体操。上班没几天就通知到西安统计学院进修，他发现做这行离不开计算机，琢磨后决定去广州看看。他花了5w块买了IBM PC，自己写程序，分析年收入400，800元以上的农民消费特征分别是怎样的，这段经历让史玉柱了解到中国各人口群体的需求特性，开始在杂志上发表关于农村经济问题的文章，被安徽副省长，中科大教授，深圳大学客座教授看到，将其招为深圳大学软件科学专业（数学系）研究生。当时深大经商氛围强过学术氛围，讲座亦如此，对其触动很大，毕业后便辞了安徽统计局的工作，扎进研发打字软件的项目中。\n冯仑\n祖上是地主后来破产，父亲是陕西某国企工会负责人。\n教师\n段永平\n父亲段锡明是南昌工程学院（原江西水利电力学院）思政老师，退休前是马列教研室主任，母亲彭建华是学校图书馆工作人员。在 60 年代就能进大学任教，也算是起点很高的高知家庭了。虽然经历文革耽误了学习，但高考恢复78 年二进宫考试就考入浙大无线电专业，也说明了他及自身家庭的不俗。其超然常人的人生理念，相信与家庭的耳濡目染不无关系。\n雷军\n父亲师范学校毕业，在县城当老师。并不是仙桃市的高考状元，网上都是自媒体谣传，实际上其高考分数离87 年清北湖北录取线差 2 分，他数理化都是出色的，语文和英语就没那么好，有些偏科，要不然会有『are you ok？』的梗？\n王志东\n广东东莞人，教师家庭，88年毕业于北大无线电系，89年进入北大计算机技术研究所，研制中文多窗口图形支撑环境，90年转入北大方正负责产品二次开发和新产品研制，91年推出国内第一个实用化windows中文环境–BDWin3.0\n93年创办四通利方信息技术有限公司，98年成立新浪网，2000年上市。\n方洪波\n美的董事长，祖父方树伯在冯玉祥手下当过县长和少将军法主任，解放后为安徽枞阳县人大代表和政协委员。父亲方继达是村里第一个师范生，后为中学老师，母亲是医生。\n文化跨界\n李想\n汽车之家和理想汽车创始人，父母都毕业于中国戏曲学院，父亲是剧团导演，母亲是教师。\n从小成绩中下，酷爱计算机高山就放弃高考开始创业，未读大学，算是异类。\n普通\n工农出身超级富翁一般是遇到贵人，或者自己有过硬的技术，才走上成功之路。董明珠遇到了贵人，同时自己再销售上也极具天分。黄铮遇到了段永平，自己计算机水平也是出类拔萃。李彦宏是网络搜索技术大牛，俞敏洪是全国牛逼的英语培训老师。\n小资本家\n刘强东\n祖籍湖南湘潭，曾祖父移居苏北，在骆马湖和京杭运河做货船生意；祖父是资本家，后被镇压，父亲是个跑船的小老板，80年代初就有自己的货船，据说一直是县里的能人，本人也争气，宿迁高考状元。\n工人\n黄铮\n父母都是普通工人，但自己是学霸，12岁就进入杭州最难进的杭州外国语学校，01年结识丁磊被举荐给段永平，02届浙大计算机毕业，04年威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校计算机硕士毕业，后加入谷歌，后06与李开复一起派到中国拓展业务，建立Google中国办公室。\n贵人段永平非常器重他，06年62w美元拍下巴菲特午餐时都将其作为陪同参加。\n李彦宏\n父亲是晋东化工厂锅炉房工人，母亲是皮革厂工人。本人学习争气，阳泉高考状元。\n启蒙教育全靠姐姐教导，年少时痴迷于戏曲，曾梦想成为一名戏曲演员。高考恢复第一年，大姐就考上大学，在榜样引领之下，他也改变了自己的选择，：）\n百度成为行业试错员\n百度还是经常能起个大早，但却赶个晚集，在大家还在拼外卖的时候，他已经喊出了 All in AI，铺了一个大滩子内部起了一个好势后又把陆奇踢走。百度除了现金奶牛产品搜索，其余产品打造在这 20 年里一言难尽。\n企业拼的一个维度就是老板，有好事的人评断，Robin 和袁绍有点像，色厉胆薄，好谋无断，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，非英雄也！\n董明珠\n父母都是南京市普通工人，本人毕业于安徽芜湖干部教育学院统计学专业，75年在南京一家化工研究所做行政管理，84年其丈夫在儿子2岁时病逝，她30岁，此事件成为了其人生的转折点，6年后儿子上了小学，她南下闯荡。90年加入格力做业务经理，基本没休过年假，94年开始做经营部部长，并一路升迁，12年5月被任命为集团董事长。\n张磊\n高瓴资本创始人，生于驻马店市双职工家庭，80年河南省文科状元考取中国人民大学，98年赴美求学，后获得耶鲁大学工商管理硕士国际关系硕士双学位。\n05年拿着耶鲁导师数年万美金戎马归来，创立高瓴资本，资金面上势单力薄，想把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，以博取收益最大化，看上了刚刚在香港上市的腾讯，这比投资，让基金升值了200倍，一战成名。\n农民\n俞敏洪\n父亲是木匠，母亲生产队妇女主任，80年代办工厂成为万元户。老俞是个实在人，看过他上的电视节目做导师之类，点评建议真实，不讲虚的。\n王传福\n其表哥吕向阳大专学历，但16岁就进入了中国人民银行安徽分行工作，一干就是15年，后来创建了融捷投资管理集团，王传福能有钱搞电池研究和创业，十分有赖于表哥200W的投资。\n但家庭出身是真苦，父亲为木匠，在其13岁时就去世，母亲也是普通农民，在其15岁时也离世，由哥嫂做小生意供其读书。\n许家印\n58年生于周口太康县，父亲许贤高虽38年（16岁）就参加共产党抗日武装，且在当年就入党，但46年因伤退伍（当过骑兵连连长），回乡务农，在家乡当了一名仓库保管员，负责拿钥匙保管公家的用品记公分等事务，自己8个月大的时候母亲就因家境贫困无钱就医败血症撒手人寰。\n在恢复高考之后，78年以周口市高考探花的身份考入武汉钢铁学院（今武汉科技大学）冶金系金属材料及热处理专业，大学里出任卫生委员，2/3的时间读花在为同学服务，参与班级和学校的管理上，也积累了一些今后成功的影响。\n毕业分配到平顶山舞阳钢铁公司，虽然心有不情愿（平顶山不是他向往的大城市），但仍然一干就是十年，当热处理车间主任7年，整的井井有条，获得冶金部高级经济师职称。92年南巡讲话后，没有提拔遂决定出去闯一闯，在南方打下了自己的天下。\n张小龙\n出生湖南贫苦农民家庭，87年（18岁）考上华中理工大学电信系，硕士主攻微波技术方向。91年清华首开C语言课程，紧接着其它高效也引入，张小龙碰上C语言，一台386电脑前一坐就是深夜。\n在程序界成名比马化腾早，97年就独立写出foxmail，他还收到过pony对其发的用户邮件，提出foxmail一个非常细微的错误，当时有些吃惊，也是二人的缘分。\n\n94年张小龙虽然毕业分到电信机关但非常压抑，出走广州，97在破旧烟雾缭绕的办公室里一战成名，但依然穷困，正在做“面向对象数据库系统”的研究开发。\n97年还是大佬们集体吃糠咽菜的一年，周鸿祎是方正的高薪白领，25岁刘强东在中关村卖碟，26岁的Pony还在打工，33岁的马云在北京火锅店流泪大唱“在我心中，有一个梦”，只有求伯君和雷军好点，却被微软打的奄奄一息，29岁的李彦宏在硅谷山景城种菜。\n打出名堂的是丁三石，回国搞的张朝阳（），当时新浪还是前身四方利通www.srsnet.com[创办者是发明“中文之星”输入法的王志东]\n\n历史名人\n民间传说的不可靠\n岳飞\n岳飞的父亲叫岳和，他是个财主，当地发过大水，但岳飞的父亲很仁义，仗义疏财。他父亲活到岳飞22岁，为岳飞请了各种各样的私塾先生来教好自己的儿子文化知识，又请了周同过来教自己儿子武艺。岳飞19岁的时候那时候还有辽宋大战，岳飞上了战场，是父亲让他去打仗的。等他父亲去世岳飞已经在战场闯下了名头。\n\n岳飞成为这样子是父亲培养了他\n\n包拯\n传说中包青天为嫂子带大，其实包拯一样是地主家庭，他的父亲也是很有作为的\n近代名人联姻\n林则徐两个女儿（共4个女儿，一个夭折）分别嫁给了河南布政使和两江总督，联姻不凡。\n曾国藩有位孙女，为民国国防部长俞大维之母，俞大维姑姑是陈寅恪生母，俞大维又娶了表哥陈寅恪的女儿。蒋经国的女儿蒋孝章（中俄混血）嫁给了俞大维之子俞扬和。\n俞大维堂哥俞大纯曾任龙海铁路局局长，有子俞启威曾与江青同居，曾任天津市长，中共第一任机械部长，有孙俞正声曾任政治局常委，上海市委书记。\n叶剑英的父亲为梅县武秀才，夫人曾宪植为曾国荃玄孙女，曾宪植也算是俞大维的表姐(曾宪植父亲为其表舅)。\n俞大维妹妹俞大彩为台大前校长傅斯年妻子，妹俞大缜，俞大絪都曾任北京大学西语系教授，弟俞大纲是中国戏曲专家，弟俞大绂是植物病理学和微生物学家,曾任北京农业大学校长。\n结语\n三代人培养一代人，很多时候是需要从爷奶辈就要有一个很好的表率。不抱怨，向上道路必然艰辛，向下的大门却永远敞开。\n走近关系不只是靠送礼，有很多种方式，比如学会他人的爱好跟他交朋友，或者是在某一方面有独到的见解能聊得来，或者是平时经常一起吃饭去玩，细心待人。有些学问不是让你一步登天的，而是让你慢慢改变自己的命运的。在中国社会，没有关系，或者你跟别人的关系处不好，你就绝对不可能成功。这个关系，可以是你的家庭带给你的，可以是你的对象家庭带给你的，也可以是你自己努力，让别人觉得有交换价值或者投资价值攀上的关系。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"抽象Thailand","url":"/%E6%8A%BD%E8%B1%A1%E6%B3%B0%E5%9B%BD.html","content":"\n2025 年春节，带着家人在曼谷和 Pattaya 过了几天日子，对其国民福利覆盖和服务业低廉感到矛盾困惑，聒噪的街边也有不少带儿乞讨者，以曼谷的交通聒噪和混乱程度，不是很适合 citywalk。有幸碰到一次泰王出行参加唐人街活动，多样性体验拉满。\n\n泰国GOV 每月至少进行五次街头检查，被发现带着无关孩子的乞丐将面临刑事指控，外国乞丐将被驱逐出境，泰国本地乞丐会被送去接受职业培训。但消灭乞丐很难，因为与收入相比，罚款微不足道\n\n按某些人的总结来说，Thailand 属于少数非法起家而后洗白的那一类富人+不干活的政府+非常多的贫困的底层百姓构成的国度。非常有钱又没有底线，那么这个地方就是极乐世界，有诸天神佛皆为你诵经。没钱这种挣扎生存的地方就是狮驼岭。泰国很多时候是宜居，可给长期签证，但不给国籍。服务物美价廉，适合去消费，是地理套利的一种方法。小乘佛教的表象下是赤裸裸鲜活的阿鼻地狱，真实的西部世界，累累底层堆积出最有钱的家族，难的是大多数都身处无间。\n泰国人信佛，跟我们目的不一样，我们求财，他们求消灾。\n\n神话力量\n按抽象层次来说，泰国差不多和印度一个层次，简单说也是因为它受到印度的影响。自从种姓制度被确立后，印度祭司们就致力于把这项先进的文化给传播出去，让更多人都能过上有一顿没一顿的幸福生活。第一站受害者就是东南亚，拿泰国来说，泰国不仅学习了印度神话，还仿照了印度神话编写了一个叫『拉玛坚』的神话传说，建造了属于自己的神话体系，且从泰国历史上第一个王朝，素可泰王朝开始，国王就已通过印度的神话完成泰国版本的君权神授，把自己神话成了湿婆的化身。比如说泰国非常流行的崇拜叫四面佛，它的原型就是印度神话里的梵天。既然印度神话已渗透进了泰国历史，那印度的祭司为何没在泰国搞种姓制度？不是祭司们不想搞，是在忙着另一件事：斗法。印度祭司想要搞种姓制度，首先就要打破巫师对基层的控制，这波是印度的祭司碰到了泰国的巫师。魔法碰上了魔法，二话不说就是斗法。尽管印度祭司有着超强的洗脑能力，但泰国巫师的剑也未尝不利，由于文化上的差异，双方的交流都成问题。祭司说原人创造了世界，他的身体变成了四个阶层，巫师们问：什么是创造世界？祭司们说 1+1=2，巫师们问，什么是加。双方根本不在一个频道上，而巫师和百姓唯一关心的问题，是你祭司懂不懂法术？想在泰国混，你得会斗法。比如说 2010 年泰国两股势力起了争斗，面对对方的武力威胁，另一方请来了以为婆罗门祭司，让祭司发动了一场抽血行动，然后再把收集到的血液全都泼在对方地盘上，对敌人进行狠狠的诅咒。\n\n想要搞出一套新的分层制度，首先要打破原有的社会结构，可泰国古代的社会结构类似我们古代的分封制，王权对地方没有绝对的控制力，管理地方的不是朝廷官员，而是各地的贵族，由于泰国有着自己的信仰，所以这些贵族还有着另一层身份：巫师。\n\n斗法说到底就是看辩经的能力，就是说出去的话得让人们不能反驳，搞出来的仪式得能让百姓愿意相信，这就需去融合当地文化。等到这些印度祭司好不容易融合了泰国的文化，压制了当地的巫师后，佛家僧侣们也来到了东南亚，泰王二话不说，又转头成了佛学的守护者，等到这些新来的僧侣准备深入基层时，印度的祭司已经完成了本地化，于是和当地的巫师一起问出了那个抽象的问题，你僧侣懂不懂法术。于是僧侣也融合了当地的文化，掀起了一场魔法对轰的抽象场面。一直延续到了现代社会。到了今天，僧侣们已占据了主导地位，但这三类神仙早就出现了合流的情况，可能干得好的僧侣就变成了婆罗门祭司，干得差的还俗就变成了民间的巫师。\n不难理解，为何泰国会流行恐怖电影，为何每部电影都有斗法桥段。本地化的佛学有了很多魔法，尤其是印度魔法的成分，这些成分就为一些法外狂徒提供了心理和精神上的安慰，所以敢于尝试，犯罪容错率高。\n近代历史\n泰国本身就缺乏对基层的控制力，尤其是对边境地区的控制力，之前的巫师和祭司，也就是现在的地方贵族，依然对当地有着绝对的控制力，王权不下乡，乡下有贵族，双方不是上下级关系，更像是一种合作关系。泰国的统治者既是国王，也是天神的化身，还是佛学的守护者。\n在殖民者出现后，各国都出现了反对王室，变法维新的运动。结果还没等到泰国百姓要求变法，拉玛五世朱拉隆功国王就率先发起了变法维新，且凭借在英法间左右横跳制衡的能力，使得泰国成了整个东南亚唯一没被殖民的国家，极大地提高了王室的形象。\n到了 20 世纪，全球又发起一场推翻王室的风潮，一个叫颂堪的军人准备联合泰国各级势力共同胁迫王室退位，还政于民，结果时任国王根本不给他们机会，没等到他们胁迫，就主动让出手中权力，只留下拔剑四顾心茫然的众人。主打一个只要我投降的快，就没人能够打败我，客观上也避免了流血牺牲。\n此后颂堪就成了泰国的实际控制者，同时也保留了整个王室。到了二战后颂堪被推翻，泰国宣布之前对英美宣战无效（宣战书没有得到国王授权，泰国大使也觉得政府愚蠢，根本没向英美提交），对已投降的日本宣战。到了 48 年，颂堪又政变成了新的统治者，军方来回发动政变，相互推翻『泰国过去 80 年，军队进行了近 20 次政变』。此时王室在干嘛，在搞慈善活动，兴修水利，兴办学校，一幅忧国忧民形象，在拉玛九世操作下，王室获得大量民众基础。一边是说变就变的军队，一边是爱民如子的国王，民众很自然就倒向国王的阵营。\n后来的军政府就选择与国王合作，由国王赋予自己统治的合理性。说以前的动乱都是生搬硬套别国的制度导致的，不顾泰国的实际情况，应放弃国会权威，重新树立起神王的权威。简单来说，就是把国王打造成集王权，神权，民权为一体的至高神，然后自己作为神的臣子来治理国家，这个模式就一直延续了下来。\n泰王和军方实际是彼此帮扶相互利用的关系，军方通过泰王敛财贪腐，泰王利用军方罢黜反对派和铲异己。一旦民选政府施政失当，军方就政变，收取民心，拉拢各方利益。全国大说数大中型企业，外资企业，石油电力通讯等国计民生行业，特许经营行业都充斥着王室背景。军方高级将领几乎各个都是大地主，身处财富圈的高端；几百万有产阶级，形成了财富圈的中间部分。\n只要民选政府要割这些权贵的肉，富裕阶层必然反击，对政府命令阳奉阴违，难得到有效落实，这时就动员平民阶层红衫军上街诉求，代表有产阶级和王室军方利益的黄衫军也会及时出马抗争，于是，王室授意的军方政变就会发生，民选政府被推翻，政治重新洗牌。泰国可以实行短期军管，但不能长久，对立严重搞不好会把泰国引入内战，到时候军方和王室的命运就会很微妙。所以军方政变后都会承诺一定期限内回到民主体制，循环往复。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史","地理"]},{"title":"拥抱世界善待自己","url":"/%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%96%84%E5%BE%85%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html","content":"\nBelieve yourself, Find a different self\n每当我遇到自己不敢直视的苦难时，我就会闭上眼睛，想象自己是一个80岁的老人，为人生中曾放弃和逃避过的无数苦难而懊恼不已，我会对自己说，能年轻一次，该有多好。然后我就睁开眼睛，砰，我又年轻了一次。\n看过一个街头老人采访，3个被采访对象，问想对年轻的自己说些什么。除了一位境遇差的说应该多读书，另外两个都大意是应该更加自信和更加勇敢（don’t warry，take risk），活出多样的自己。\n\n人人都希望拥有财富和勇气，正说明这两项都是稀缺的，但与财富不同，勇气不能任意运用。\n\n在周游半个地球回到澳洲后投身8年临终护理的邦妮·韦尔，写出这么一份临终后悔总结，记住了临终的老人们提到最多的五件事\n\n\n希望有勇气过真正自己想要的生活，而不是过别人所期望的生活\n\n\n人生叹息\n\n\n环境的产物\n\n\n\n\n希望以前没有那么拼命的工作\n\n\n忙碌无为\n\n\n目的与意义\n\n\n\n\n希望有足够的勇气表达自己的感受\n\n\n\n对家人说爱\n\n\n对内疚说不\n\n\n祸中得福\n\n\n\n\n希望能和自己的朋友一直保持联系\n\n保持联系\n真正的朋友\n自我允许\n\n\n\n希望让自己成为快乐的人\n\n承认自己\n快乐就在眼前\n视角问题\n\n\n\n微笑与领悟：没有人后悔赚钱太少，房子太小，人们只是后悔不够关心自己…让人们疲于奔命的『人生任务』，不过是社会机器运转所需要的润滑剂。人们行色匆匆，眼神中带着焦虑与急切，得到了满足就无聊，得不到就痛苦，人生就像钟摆一样，在痛苦和无聊之间不停摆荡，永无安宁。不应将生命的希望寄托在外物上，正确的做法是无视外物，向内求，回归自我的探寻，享受生命的宁静与安逸，感受到生活的美好。人生三见不着相。\n高龄老人最害怕的也不是死亡，而是那之前的种种状况：丧失听力、记忆力、失去最好的朋友和固有的生活方式。生活中最好的事，就是能自己上厕所。\n\n一个人 30 岁就开始进入不可逆的衰老进程，牙齿磨损，骨密度下降，感官退化。\n40 岁左右，肌肉质量和力量开始走下坡路，大脑的处理速度也开始降低。\n50 岁开始，骨头以每年 1%的速度丢失骨密度。\n60 岁视网膜接受到的光线是你 20 岁时的 1/3。\n70 岁的时候，大脑灰质丢失，头颅灰空出差不多 2.5cm 的空间，所以老年人在头部受到撞击后，更易因大脑晃动导致颅内出血。\n80 岁，我们会丢失 25%到 50%的肌肉。\n\n人生好狼狈，生命的厚度需要用一生去体会。我们最终的目的不是好死，而是好好地活到终了。— 来自《最好的告别》\n善待你的时间\n\n\n你浪费的今天是昨天死去的人奢望的明天，你所言恶的现在，是未来的你回不到的曾经。\n\n\n时间面前人人平等，如果你认为锻炼身体是第一位的，那你自然会优先安排好锻炼的时间，总是认为没有时间锻炼身体的人，未来总会有时间生病，忙不是借口，比你再忙的人，都有时间运动。身体状态和年龄无关，健康的身体需要付出时间去管理，最好的医生是自己，最好的药物是时间，往后余生，身上无病，心中无事，便是最好的光景。\n\n终有一天，你会发觉你值得炫耀的不是你有多少钱，不是你开什么车，而是你周围的人都玩不动，走不动的时候，你还拥有强健的体魄\n在河南省这个中等经济水平的省份，郑州市一个医院，2008年收入6.8个亿，2018年收入是180个亿，如修车般修人，拿命换钱转换为拿钱换命\n\n\n\n走运前的七个征兆\n学会戒掉情绪\n戒掉悲观情绪，戒掉坏情绪。所谓运气，就是你体内运转的一股气，当你怨天尤人，唉声叹气的时候，你的运气自然就会往下走，这个世界你想什么，不一定能遇到，但是你怕什么，它就会来什么。所以一定不要在有情绪的时候做决定。\n学会社交送礼\n礼物不一定要很贵，但一定要学会与人处处逢源。比如你去别人家做客，手里一定要尝尝拎一袋水果，永远不要空手去别人家做客，别人帮了你的忙，随手就给人家发个红包，向高手请教问题，一定要事先给人家发一个红包，收不收是人家的事，但发不发却是一个很重要的事。只有别人觉得你上道了，别人才会一直帮着你\n学会了开始自律\n放弃游戏，闲聊以及无效社交，学会了享受孤独，开始关注于工作学习，规划作息，锻炼身体，对自己的人生和家人负责，责任感越来越强，从内心认识到要想重新好起来全靠自己。\n学会了反思自己\n每天拿出来一个小时梳理你自己，你现在的生活是什么状况，个人毛病是什么，恶习是什么，造成了自己什么样子，被哪些事牵扯到了精力，这些问题怎么解决，怎么改正。孔子说吾日三省吾身，本意就是如此\n开始有利他之心\n懂得感恩，站在他人的角度思考问题，持续创造价值，最终才能收获到他人的厚爱。机会和爱戴是留给感恩的人。如果你的思考只围绕着自己，那很难获得成功。要想赢得好运，还要学会保持微笑，与周围的人好好说话，时间一久啊，都想跟你接触，你的磁场一旦发生改变，境随心转，连贵人都会从天而降\n学会了思维方式的转变\n正向的思维是事业成功的开始。如果你的思维方式从负面变成了正向，从消极变成了积极，那你的后半生，财富就是个副产品而已。如果你自己都觉得自己不行，那你注定只能失败，人这一生啊，就是要改闯敢拼，不拼几次，你到老了肯定会有遗憾\n开始对金钱有了强烈的欲望\n心不唤物物不至，穷身前行行必果，倘若你没有对金钱强烈的欲望，注定一定只能穷下去，你要学会热爱自己的事业，要把自己的梦想真正的放在心上，一步步地去执行，落地去实践，而不是晚上想起千条路，早上起来走原路。只有对金钱强烈的欲望，才能激励自己不断的成长，未来乾坤未定，你我皆是黑马\n\n改变命运的办法首先是改变自己，总指望着“靠外部环境的变化来提升自己的命运”是非常懒惰且愚蠢的生活方式。殊不知，人的命运需要自己掌握。\n\n结语\n没有完美的人生剧本，所有的选择都有代价，关键是承担选择的勇气。承认脆弱反而是强大的开始，正如树木会在受伤处生出最坚硬的结，人生是体验而非任务，要允许自己『过得不好』，我们不是来『赢』的，活出自己才是正确之道。\n幸福不是来自生命的过程，而是来自你对生活所持的态度。取决于自己对现在客观环境的理解，享受自己的当下，而不是去追求别人想象出来的幸福。\n当你看过世界，见过众生，才发现你要见的世面，是自己内心的勇敢和自信！\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"换个视角理解人生-十日谈","url":"/%E6%8D%A2%E4%B8%AA%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F-%E5%8D%81%E6%97%A5%E8%B0%88.html","content":"\n《十日谈》\n2020年全球疫情，历史什么时候跟这个阶段有些相似呢，大家把目光投向薄伽丘的《十日谈》。当时佛罗伦萨和欧洲很多地方都爆发了黑死病，仅佛罗伦萨就死了10w+人，欧洲可能因疫情损失的人口在7000w~2亿之间。\n1350年，薄伽丘开始创作《十日谈》，内容是讲述十位年轻男女跑到佛罗伦萨郊外躲避瘟疫。他们在宜人的花园住下，每天除了唱歌跳舞之外，每个人要讲一个故事，十天下来就讲了一百个故事，这些故事合在一起，就是这本书。书中故事离奇有趣，人物类型众多，有王公贵族、僧侣骑士，也有平民百姓、贩夫走卒。书中教会里面的人物，特别是头面人物，嘴上都是仁义道德，骨子里却是男盗女娼，而且贪得无厌。相比之下，人间正常的男欢女爱广受赞颂，书的内容从主题到形式的差异非常大，但思想内核突出，就是赞美人间美好的生活，讽刺教会和贵族骑士。\n《第一天-第二个》\n\n犹太人亚伯拉罕是个Good guy，有个天主教好友杨诺，杨诺为了劝说他皈依天主教，不断吹嘘天主教的好处。时间长了，亚伯拉罕真的有点信了杨诺的话，但他说耳听为虚眼见为实，他要去罗马一趟，亲眼见见天主教什么样，才能决定信与不信。\n杨诺一想，亚伯拉罕一到罗马，目睹教会腐败的生活，肯定就不信了，所以就劝说他不要去罗马。但亚伯拉罕很坚决，这样杨诺已经打定了朋友回来肯定不信天主教的结果了。\n果然，罗马教廷丑陋的东西让亚伯拉罕看到了，但回来后，亚伯拉罕说他准备皈依天主教了，杨诺很困惑，问他为什么？\n亚伯拉罕讲，罗马本该是神圣的，但成了包容一切罪恶的大熔炉，教皇以及主教们（牧羊人）本该做天主教的支柱和基础，却日夜千方地想要天主教早些垮台。但是亚伯拉罕话锋一转的讲，我还是决定皈依天主教，为什么呢，因为无论他们千方百计挖墙角想把天主教推翻，天主教还是岿然不动，还发扬光大，那么天主教肯定有圣灵在做支柱和基石，你们的宗教的确比其它宗教更正大神圣。\n好友杨诺万万没想到，亚伯拉罕会因教会的腐朽得出这么个大反转结论来。\n故事的启示\n追寻合理的本质，换个视角理解人生\n应用场景1\n例如举此文章例子的作者吴军在给从google来腾讯的员工开解问题时，就借道讲过这个故事。来自google的这位同学，跑来抱怨代码质量这么差，单元测试也没有，三天两头死机，没救了，很郁闷，通过这个故事，开导他换个角度看问题。\n你看，照理说，这么差的工程质量，系统三天两头崩溃，用户早该跑光了，可他的用户还在不断增加，大家使用好像也没有遇到什么麻烦，这说明这像故事里的天主教，有圣灵给他做支柱。\n接下来建议他去找原因，这个原因一定是价值所在，果然他找到了原因，且能客观的评价腾讯的工程工作，自己也发展很顺利。\n能提醒我们思考表现和本质的区别，表现可能是假的，当表现解释不了原因时，就需要思考我们是否没看到本质。\n应用场景2\n他还举了一个应用此故事的例子，某个创业公司，盯着它很多细节看，大把问题，但很奇怪的是，很多企业做不成的事情，它都能做成，因此外面整体看起来发展的很好。\n国内本来有一家基金，看到乱象问题没有跟投。几年后回问，为什么当年坚持看好它？就以此故事来解释。当你发现这个大厦有很多蛀虫，却屹立不倒，说明他可能有过人之处，找到他就可以放心投了。\n这家的创始人确实厉害，总是先人一步进入一个蓬勃发展的领域，这就是他致胜的秘诀。\n文学对读理工科、做技术、做投资没用么，显然不是。\n回望文艺复兴与十日谈\n黑死病对欧洲影响巨大，大家对宗教的兴趣大减，转而关注世俗的幸福。\n\n离上帝更近的教士也没少死，对上帝的崇拜大减。神治不了病，还得靠医生，促进了欧洲医学的发展\n原本重来世，一下死这么多人，倍觉生命可贵，重视当下生活，加上十字军带回了阿拉伯地区的生活方式，以意大利为代表的欧洲进入一种享乐主义，教皇亦不例外\n劳动力一下少了好多，荒地处处，幸存者变得非常值钱，城里的雇主为了吸引劳工都在涨工资，逐渐形成城市中产阶级，因为缺少劳动力，欧洲开始寻求通过机械替代人力，促使了欧洲的工业革命。\n\n《十日谈》和《神曲》分别从民间的、世俗的故事和神的、精神的故事开始文学从中世纪到新世纪的转折。在中世纪，文学体裁远没有现在这么丰富，只有宗教文学、诗歌和宫廷文学。凡人的故事是难登大雅之堂的，《十日谈》之后，欧洲出现了大量的讲述人间故事的短篇小说。这些短篇小说后来又成了一些著名戏剧的创作原本。比如莎士比亚的很多戏剧的情节就来源于那些短篇小说。好的经典文学在历史上同样是功德无量。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"接纳不完美的自己书摘","url":"/%E6%8E%A5%E7%BA%B3%E4%B8%8D%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E4%B9%A6%E6%91%98.html","content":"\n主旨: 做一个好人，还是做一个完整的人？\n认识自己\n“投影”是一种有趣的心理现象（为什么你身边会出现某一类人）：\n\n我们会不自觉地用潜意识去影响周围的人，让他们表现出为我们所压抑的特质和情感，或者把容易表现出这种特质和情感的人吸引到我们身边，这就是投影的机制\n\n认识自己可以问别人，也可以列举3个喜欢/厌恶的人做分解\n用大声讲自己的阴暗面来达到脱敏的效果\n用第三人称的命名方式来区别自己身上的亚人格，与其进行对话\n\n疯狂就是一次又一次地重复同样的事情，希望得到不同的结果（这又是一种愚蠢的象征）\n\n承认自己才能改变自己\n\n当你想有所改变时，除了上面提及的脱敏办法，还可以试试下面的:\n\n\n换个活法，从换个说法开始\n承认自己的优点和长处，学会以自己为荣\n愤怒也是一种生命的能量，如果承认自己的愤怒，它能给予你实现人生梦想所需的能量，完全没有愤怒，毕竟也不是好事\n滋养我们的心灵，可以挂一张自己婴儿期的照片再每天都看到的地方\n\n\n现代人太忙，忘记该怎么照顾自己，许多人最需要两件东西：\n\n\n休息\n自己和别人的肯定\n\n\n像贵族一样对待自己，若已对自己做了一切，世界还是冷若冰霜，再检视内心潜藏，消极的东西（因为你关怀自己，别人就会关怀你）\n你欣赏他人的每一个特质，在你身上都有，只不过借助别人显现出来了，这也是相似相映。与其说我们在不断寻找值得欣赏的人，不如说我们是在不断去发现自己。\n做计划按目标改变自己\n如果没有计划，梦想就会成为我们的心理负担，让我们感到空虚\n作者提出了很多可操作性的心理疗法，也提倡冥想，有需要可以尝试\n\n接受心理阴暗面，肯定自己\n认识自己\n寻找目标\n制定计划\n开辟新人生\n\n\nps：无节制进食也是一种麻醉行为，其实和吸毒差不多，不要用一种瘾疾代替另一种\n(通过进食来舒缓压力的胖子们都醒醒吧)\n\n任何人的性格都是一体两面的\n\n喜恶同因，瑕瑜互见。你爱他的容颜，就要接受他的衰老一样，性格同样如此\n\n你爱他的勇敢，就要接受他的急躁\n你爱他的细腻，就要接受他的纠结\n你爱他的稳定，就要接受他的平淡\n你爱他的温柔，就要接受他的依赖\n你爱他的智慧，就要接受他的冷漠\n你爱他的才华，就要接受他的自恋\n结语：认可自己，允许一切发生\n\n真正的强大不是对抗，而是允许发生\n真正的自信是认可自己。进步和收获的每一步不是给别人的评价做的，不需要任何人看见。\n\n当你允许遗憾、愚蠢、丑恶、虚伪、允许付出没有回报之后，你会逐渐变成一个柔软放松舒展的人，总是和自己对抗，和人性以及世界的运行规律对抗，你会越发拧巴，软弱和痛苦。\n允许一切发生，不是让你破罐子破摔还自我安慰，而是让你学会真正接纳自己的情绪，学会带着情绪去做事，和自己的情绪和谐相处。\n善待自己，善待别人，允许自己做自己，允许别人做别人。对自己不必远虑，对他人不必多想。不在别人心中修行自己，不在自己心中强求别人。按荣格的话说：你连想改变别人的念头都不要有，要学习像太阳一样，只是发出光和热。\n允许一切发生，接纳，包容，善待自己和别人，这才是真正的强大！\n后记：活在别人眼中是对自己的不尊重\n凡敏感皆是懦弱，凡愤怒皆是无能，凡抱怨皆是依赖。不在意精神修持，一生将很快在盲目的追逐和焦虑中空耗过去，外面没有什么是真正属于你的，内在的滋养和丰盛是你真正需要的。\n不必活在别人的期待里，不以外界的评判内耗自己的情感。费尽心思让所有人开心，会忘了自己怎么笑。认可和存在感的获得，是向内求索而非向外祈怜。无需为了那些不属于自己的观众，去演绎你不擅长的人生。\n一个人最可悲的就是为了别人的看法一味的改变自己，到了最后，做不成别人，也找不回自己。曹操再奸，都有知心友；刘备再好，都有死对头；孙权再温柔，两边都是仇。再厉害的人，背后都有人议论，活在别人眼里，也就死在别人嘴里，闲话一直有，不听自然无。议论别人的人本身是可怜可悲的，因为这是非常低层次的事件。高层次的人不是在议论别人，而是在学习别人。另一个层面，被人议论也说明你牵制了他，吸引了他，值得开心，大概率因为你比他强。也有些人身处水洼遍地的烂泥中，绝不允许你站在高塔上光彩夺目，同归于尽才痛快。\n你越在乎别人的看法和评价，也是一种信号，你该提升了（你跟他混在一个级别了）。什么叫诅咒，就是我骂你一句，你入心了，这就叫诅咒，进一步讲甚至表扬和批评也是对人的控制的手段，不以物喜不以己悲方是超越的状态。当你不提升受到这种能量的牵制和侵扰，就会和他同频，时间长了就会是一个负能量的状态，又会吸引过来什么样的事情呢？你比他厉害（精神力量、智慧、素质），比他层次高的时候，他是不可能影响到你的，就如飞机飞在云层之上，所以就看不见下面在下雨。\n\n稻盛和夫说：我站在一楼，有人骂我，我很生气；我站在十楼，有人骂我，我听不清，以为他在和我打招呼；我站在一百楼，有人骂我，我根本看不见，也听不见。\n\n当你在一百楼，触目所及的是碧空无云，峰峦叠嶂，我见青山多妩媚，料青山见我亦如是。一个人之所以痛苦别人的看法是因为他缺乏高度，高度不够看到的都是问题，格局太小纠结的都是鸡毛蒜皮，时间都损耗在无意义的纷争之上。\n不与井蛙语海，不与凡夫言道。活在别人眼里是一件很可悲的事情，做好自己的事，走好自己的路。虽有时也要照顾别人的感受，但那不是为了寻求认可和存在感，而是尊重对方而已。\n无惧无悔\n情绪稳定的本质是无惧无悔：无惧是允许一切发生；无悔是不假设自己未选择的路，不自怜自艾。活在当下，由心而生。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"提桶跑路Civil Engineering","url":"/%E6%8F%90%E6%A1%B6%E8%B7%91%E8%B7%AFCivil-Engineering.html","content":"\n工地是真的苦\n提到工地的苦，大多都口出粗鄙之语。\n一些早已离开工地多年的人，都会发生过半夜被噩梦惊醒的事情。有的是梦见用的钢筋标号搞错了；有的梦见自己掉进了深基坑；有的梦见陷在水泥里四周一个人都没有；有人做梦自己建的铁路桥塌了，事故责任调查判了自己几年，醒来特意开车会去那个桥看一次。\n工地是全方位的辛苦。\n\n\n第一就是环境太差，铁皮工程房就是工程人员办公休息二合一的地方，保证你冬冷夏热，晴天一身灰，雨天一身泥，出来都掉渣。\n\n\n吃得也差，他们的厨子是没考上新东方烹饪学校出来报复社会的。提桶跑路回来转身给工友卖盒饭，发现比干工地挣得多。\n\n\n\n工地的偏远就不用说了，除了少量拆迁改造，地铁，大部分工地肯定都不在市区，例如修路修桥肯定是在没路没桥的地方，加上工作忙，工地上人出门也少，很多时候变得比山里农民还闭塞。地理位置偏僻，很多时候无处可去，所以工作时间非常的长，工地人对抱怨996持轻蔑态度，606算不了什么大事。\n\n除了工地上的那群劳动者，方圆二十里甚至都没有灵长类生命出现。\n\n开车去县城就要两小时，见到超过20个人都会很激动。\n大城市大学毕业生参加铁路工程局工作2年后对参加乡下赶集都非常高兴，会认真记录了自己吃早点的过程。\n也有住快捷酒店不舍得走，实在不想回工地的。\n\n工作量大价平\n所有工程都有工期，而工期大多都紧到催命。工地上10个坑，只准备8个萝卜，那个萝卜闲了，就有坑等着你。\n通宵打灰反人类\n\n活儿虽机械枯燥，但并不好干，动不动就要被上头的人训斥。\n\n颜值垮塌\n晒黑，饮食不规律，烟酒一起来，颜值普遍会快速崩塌，稀碎可能更准。\n\n伤病风险与积劳成疾\n工地的风险小到踩钉子打破伤风，大到掉进水泥搅拌机里，各种安全事故每天都大小发生，没有不受伤的。夏天干活一天能喝10升水，休息的时候一点尿都没。职业病难免会积累下来。早年在工地累的是腰腿膝盖，当了领导又喝废了。\n耽误婚恋\n男性占比99%，终身大事很容易耽误。有了老婆孩子也是常年的两地分居，一年见不了几次，工地三宝：台风，停电，来美女。发生一件，就值得加菜庆祝，三件同时发生，那地球基本保不住了。\n留人难\n随着发达地区基建越来越少，工地越来越偏僻，想回家越来越难，出国甚至2，3年才能回家一次。除了收入增长停滞，更要命的是升级难。\n收入不振\n先说收入，苦是一直如此，设施不完善，工期紧，任务重，总体还是一直在改善。工地到底是个临时设施，位置又偏僻，即使欧美发达国家施工的地方，大多也非常简陋。\n说的直白一点，最主要的问题就是收入，工资加个0，今天就不可能剩下一点工作干不完。21世纪初期，工地人收入并不低，但近十年，收入没什么变化，产业链上都一样，包括设计院的人。主要是时代不再是大发展大基建的时代了。\n十年前一个经理能拿到20w，收入远超社会平均水平，能在城市买车买房，虽然买上住不了几天，对吃的苦到底有个交代，比起金融IT都不差的，房地产的崛起，大学土木录取分还是很高，但20年收入没涨多少，工作场景谁比谁流泪。\n\n在2008~2012年那几年，伴随着房地产的景气，土木迎来了它的黄金时代，那时做这行就像在淘金，只要跳进去就极大可能赚钱。\n\n\n算上面的困难和时薪的话低的离谱，收入增加也有限，前几年相当于白干，和热门专业的同学比，就是入错行的代表。年轻的想着提桶跑路，年老的就觉得这辈子就这样了，极力避免自己孩子再学这个。\n新人入职培训吃的好住得好，直到把你送到工地前，你都觉得自己是找对工作了，甚至有的为了留住新人，项目经理前两个月都让新人在室内弄资料，直到你不能再以应届生应聘工作了，才会以小伙子老坐着不好，我给你介绍一下现场的情况为名，带你去干活了。\n晋升困难\n985毕业生到了工地打灰拉线干起，学的东西用不上，干到总工和项目经理级别才用得上。当年中专毕业的项目经理干的也好好的，自己学的到底有多少用心里还真没底，哪怕是设计院，绝大多数工程都是普通工程，使用现今的制图软件，大量原本需要很多计算的工作，都自动完成了。不能说知识没用，在工地上使用的知识和学到的知识差异太大了，除了考证书上的东西，作用很有限。\n大基建时代，发展快的要命，到处缺技术人员，一个大项目坐下来就能升级一次，小项目做个两次也能升级，让你赶快带队出去独当一面，那时候三年做到总工，五年做到项目经理，虽说有点夸张，但5总7项（5年总工7年项目经理）是非常可能的，就像海底捞刚开始的时候加入的早，开新店员工就可能成为店长。\n内卷\n这些年虽然工程建设技术变化很大，但具体工作流程没多少进步，甚至因为高技术手段，很多工作技术含量更低了，大多数工程只要看得懂图纸，按照上面写的按部就班干，不违反规程不偷工减料，都不会出什么问题的，行业早年的快速发展造成现在严重的僧多粥少，也就是内卷，以至于工程单位最重要的工作，一个是找活干，一个是结工程款。\n也就是干工程你在这两个领域干得好，基本上爽的要死，且现在有工程资质的公司太多了，都想尽办法压价，毕竟这么多人闲着也有成本，不但压价还垫资，结款没有不扯皮了。喊哑了嗓，拍烂了桌，喝坏了胃和肝，最后还被扣着尾款.\n供给与变化\n每年毕业相关专业学生太多，20年前全国大学只有100多个学校开了建筑土木专业，现在已经有5，600家了，还有师范学校，也开建筑系的，一窝蜂的上马使得大量不管合不合格的毕业生都进入这一行了，搞得最后企业除了大学生好招，什么人都不好招了。\n毕业后，大部门学土木的都会选择进施工单位，也就是下工地干活儿。\n\n提桶跑路视频，就是土木学子考验加油站，考公加油站。进工地一个月后，提桶跑路的土木毕业生数不胜数，有的回家备考公务员，有的则去互联网公司做了运营。\n\n一年下来，同学打卡了三亚的凤凰岛、长沙的太平街，以及成都的宽窄巷子。同学打卡的都是热门景点，人头攒动。\n而土木人则打卡了距离廊坊市区60公里的楼盘、兰州新区刚刚兴建的厂房，以及广西北部山区里的隧道，在电视上就看过有大工程在一个地方作业10年。不是家里苦在时代趋势下真难以坚持。\n\n现今土木的分数已经降下来了，清华大学土木已经在提前批和贫困批招生，强制规定提前批不能转专业。领导对于新人表示理解，一旦有提桶思想，一般是先画饼，不行就放假，再不行就承诺转你去轻松岗位，虽说都是空话，但是据说这是工地人最能感受自己价值的时刻。前二十年，在整个行业积累了大量骨干，这些人短时间都不会退休了，这保证了后十几年中国工程建设实力依然不会有多少下降，出海算是一条路，但消化过剩生产力。\n总结\n土木人自称牛马，虽是调侃，真的有现实写照，中国速度，基建狂魔，基础是大量在工地工作的人，内卷成这样严重已经影响行业的发展。比海员还惨，海员能积累休假歇一段时间，也是土木人期待的改变。\n还有希望吗，行业是不会消失的，年轻人都不来干工地，这一行才有希望。\n为什么写下这么一篇文章，有同窗本科土木改靠英语研究生改行，现在大团队也有南京大学学土木跑去外国读研计算机，面试中也碰到过土木自行改行做码农的，小时候听及长辈言传土木工程好，这种观点冲撞通过这篇形象的小文予以回应解读。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["行业"]},{"title":"搜索的本质","url":"/%E6%90%9C%E7%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8.html","content":"\n\n利用信息，消除歧义 – 吴军博士对于搜索本质的解释定性\n本文内容来自于一次吴军博士的讲座整理\n\n用信息熵衡量搜索\n\n香农在信息论中提出信息熵的概念，统摄这个议题\n\n语言的出现是为了人类之间的通信，任何一种语言都是一种编码的方式，这也是语言模型中直接抽象 encoder $\\rightarrow$ decoder 的来源，自然语言处理问题等价成通信的解码问题\n\n一本五十万字的中文书平均有多少信息量？\n\n\n\n常用汉字大约有7000，假如每个字等概率，那么大约要用13个bit表示一个汉字（实际上汉字的使用是不平均的）\n\n\n考虑到实际每个汉字使用不平均，前10%的汉字占文本的95%以上\n\n\n不考虑上下文相关性，每个汉字独立概率，那么每个汉字信息熵大约8-9个bit\n\n\n考虑上下文相关性，每个汉字信息熵约5bit左右\n\n传统理论上一个汉字包含的信息少于5bits，大部分网上均称汉字的信息熵大于6，甚至达到11\n\n\n\n\n\n故一本50w字中文书，信息量大约是250wbit\n\n这里讲的250wbit是个平均数，同样长度的数，所含的信息可以差很多\n\n编码压缩存储\n\n用好用的压缩算法压一下，整本书可存成一个320KB的文件\n若直接用两字节编码存储这书，大约要1MB大小，是压缩文件的3倍\n\n这两个数量的差距，在信息论中称作 冗余度（redundancy)\n\n重复内容越多，信息量就越小，冗余度就大\n\n不同语言的冗余度差别很大，汉语在所有语言中冗余度是相对小的，这与人们普遍的认识“汉语是最简洁的语言”是一致的\n定量分析\n从10亿数据中找出10个文档，需要27bit的信息\n\n$10亿=2^{30}$， $10=2^3$，30-3=27\n\n其中query本身能提供20bits的信息，这就是搜素中最重要的内容\n\n每个查询串，一般3-5个字符，平均4个，4*5bits/字=20bits\n所以查询命中信息（hit proximity）最重要，占20bits\n\n还需要7bits\n\n文本质量度量（pagerank）\n大众的知识（查询重写、点击模型）\n个性化\n\n西瓜和芝麻\n抓住主要部分，钻在小的芝麻粒做得再好也只是&quot;芝麻&quot;，这里的西瓜就是20bits的内容，即查询文字\n信息的来源：\n\nQRW – query rewrite transform提供20bits的信息，占70%的信息量（hits）\n客户端收集的log数据（点击行为模型），提供3.4bits信息，对相关性排序贡献在40%以上（现阶段更高）\nQRW的重构，根据上下文相关性提供2~3bits的信息（关联性）\n搜索偏好的设定（个性化）\n隐含信息，把可能的结果作为QRW进行查询\n\nQRW功能示例\n当今地球上五十个最值得去的地方\n\n当今，表明结果网页有时效性要求。时间较晚的网页会被排序加权，提供全局属性\n上下文无关冗余词：个，最，去，的\n上下文相关冗余词：当今。提供全局属性后，其在匹配时可作为非必留\n同义词替换\n\n地球：世界\n五十：50\n地方：地域，地区（得分不高，不适合是合适的同义词替换）\n\n\n世界上 五十 值得 地方\n\n技术的两个支柱\n有信息–数据的重要性\n\n\n索引量要尽可能大\n\n\n内容尽可能全\n\n本来信息就不够，还丢掉些就更难做好\n不需要多余小歘歘\n\n\n\n过滤掉噪音：作弊\n\n\n用好信息–模型的重要性\n\n保证将效果接近最佳\n\n所有信息一起用\n\n\n好的模型一定是简约的\n模型里的每一部分原理都讲得清\n\n排序所需的信息\n与查询无关的部分\n\n可分为link-related 和content-related\n\n\n\n完整的网页（内容、title、body、anchor等\n\n\nPagerank（很像专业内的reference）\n\n原始算法未回应时效性方面的关注\n因作弊被污染数据的纠正\n\n今天对网页质量的衡量是全方位的，商业度同样考量，如一些八卦网站pagerank可能很高，但内容权威度很低\n\n\n\n\n\n访问量（popularity分层的依据）\n\n\n信息含量（informative measurement去重）\n\n负向例子：如过短的新闻\n\n\n\n时效性\n\n\n和查询相关的部分\n\n命中：hits\n点击：click information\n关键词之间的关联性（proximity）\n\n距离\n其它语义相关性\n\n同义词\n语法关联性没有语义关联性重要，语义：信息直接对应\n\n\n\n\n查询重写\n商业和作弊信息\n隐含信息\n\n高考（年代），地点\n查询类型（人物，专有名词，问题）\n同义词扩展等\n\n\n关联性本质是上下文信息有助于降低不确定性\n汉字查询词：上下文相关提供的信息约莫占2-3bits\n\n个性化信息\n\n浏览器设置和搜索偏好的设置\n地点\n用户画像\n\n搜索历史：search history,query hints\n喜好站点\n\n\n订阅信息\n前面几次搜索\n前几次点击的表现\n\n个性化是否是良药\n\n\n累死了产品经理，但效果甚微\n\n\n两个人在不同维度权重不同（维度由产品决定），但差异性（距离）过小，不足以累计起足够有意义的信息\n\n\n例如有6个维度\n\n\nA $\\begin{bmatrix} 0.3 &amp;0.2 &amp;0.15 &amp;0.05 &amp;0.2 &amp;0.1 \\end{bmatrix}$\n\n\nB $\\begin{bmatrix} 0.2 &amp;0.4 &amp;0.05 &amp;0.2 &amp;0.05 &amp;0.1 \\end{bmatrix}$\n\n\n大众平均 $\\begin{bmatrix} 0.25 &amp;0.3 &amp;0.1 &amp;0.125 &amp;0.125 &amp;0.1 \\end{bmatrix}$\n\n\n两者之间的KL-divergence\n\nA对B： 0.154 bits\nB对A：0.152 bits\n对大众更小：A：0.102，B：0.081\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n需要比较多的信息才起作用，累计道1bits的信息\n\n\n成本上也要考量，是否要每个人建立一个click model，要做，但不是首要的目标任务\n\n\n排序的一勺烩\n\n信息是原料，排序函数ranking function是菜谱\n把每种信息看成一种变量，多种信息组合搜索空间巨大\n难点就在信息的组合\n\n借鉴统计模型的思想\n\n符合所有可靠的统计数据\n满足所有的边际分布\n尽可能平滑\n\n\n方法论：机器做 Jump Start，专家做经验公式\n\n\n理想情况下各种信息是正交的，现实却是：\n\n大多信息不是统计独立的\n一些信息完全被其它信息覆盖\n\n\n面对现状，对影响力较小的信息，需定期review和删除\n\n召回不是问题，但准确率不高时\n\n内容作弊\n没有找到关键词\n\n我们需帮用户补上（隐含的信息）\n\n\n信息整合的不好 – 模型不好\n\nN种Feature，如何构造scoring function G$\\begin{pmatrix} x1,&amp;x2,&amp;…,&amp;xn \\end{pmatrix}$\n新闻：时效性和质量的平衡\n内容质量和相关性的平衡，等等\n如果一个scoring/ranking的架构不能适应算法，改架构而不是改算法\n\n点击模型放到最前面\nQRW的预计算（保证先于很多的过滤）\n\n\n架构（模型）上要避免同一个原始Feature多次使用\n\n\n\n应对作弊的方法\n笨办法：在网页上做文章\n\n检测无效跳转页面\n检查javascript等\n减少hard code排序算法\n\n聪明办法：在链接上做文章（背后皆有利益驱动）\n\n链接批发商检测\n惩罚购买链接的目的地\n过期域名检测\n\n垃圾的本质\n\n噪音的引入且产生正反馈\nAnti spam（反作弊）的核心是加入信息，降低不确定性\n\n简单的分类器不足够\n如有1/2的spam，至少需要一个bit的信息\nNaive Bayesian Classifier，准确率差不多有90%\n\n\n\n点击模型&amp;客户端的竞争\n\n对相关性的贡献在40%以上\n\n举例，20条信息，等概率的话，信息熵5.7bits\n若点击率分别是1/2，1/4，1/8，信息熵变成2.3bits\n改进了3.4bits，在查询所需的额外7个bits中，相当于提升了3.4/7=50%的效率\n\n\n今天所有搜索引擎，对常见的查询，结果都不差，差异在于不常见的查询。提高这些搜索查询质量实际靠的是大量的数据\n数据成为决定好坏的第一要素，算法倒在其次了\n\n网页本身的数据(完备，新)\n用户点击的数据，点击模型统计数量足够，这种根据点击决定的排名就很准确有效。点击模型贡献了搜索排序至少60%~80%的权重\n\n市占率较小的引擎甚至在这些查询由热变冷之前，还没凑齐那么多数据，因此点击模型就非常不准确\n搜索行业就形成了一种马太效应：后进场的公司也不会坐以待毙，采取办法快速获取数据，收购流量（如微软收购雅虎，其搜索量由原来google的10%陡然提升至20%~30%，点击模型排名准确了许多）\n还有更激进的办法，如toolbar，浏览器甚至输入法来收集用户点击行为\n若一家公司能在浏览器市占率高，即使搜索量小，也能快速改进长尾搜索的质量\n搜索质量的竞争就变成了浏览器或其它客户端软件市占率的竞争\n\n\n\n\n\n爬虫的挑战\n现在互联网非常庞大，商业网络爬虫需要成千上万个服务器，通过高速网络连接起来\n如google在2013年时整个索引大约有1万亿个网页。即使最新最频繁的基础索引也有100亿个网页，假如下载一个网页要1秒钟，那么下载这100亿网页需317年，下载1万亿网页要3.2w年，是人类有文字记载历史的6倍时间\n现在很多网页是用一些脚本语言生成的，页面分析很复杂，要模拟浏览器运行一个网页，才能得到里面隐含的URL，所以要做浏览器内核的工程师来写网络爬虫的解析程序\n\nV8引擎和Chrome应该就是网络爬虫的副产物\n\n神经网络的代际趣闻\n人工神经网络和人脑没半毛钱关系，本质上是一种有向图。但它使用了一个新名词：神经元。让人感觉很神秘，且会联想到仿生学或认知科学等一辈子都难搞懂的东西\n神经网络的规模决定了它能做多大事情，因为节点之间是连接的，复杂度随着网络规模扩大呈指数级上升\n\n经历了几次技术名词被玩坏：神经网络$\\longrightarrow$连接主义$\\longrightarrow$深度学习\n这一代根据网络非常深的特点，起名深度学习\n\n相较于往代运气很好，云计算的兴起使得使用成千上万台计算机成为了可能\n\n\n\n总结\n\n过去几十年智能产品质量的根本：信息\n信息量的提升是这些产品（机器翻译，语音识别，搜索，NLP）进步的根本\n如果没有提供新的信息，不要指望搜索质量有任何提高\n\n如导出式特征，是没有贡献额外信息的，同一个信息用多遍没有用\n\n\n两个支柱\n\n有信息（数据的重要性），常被忽视\n用好信息（模型的重要性）\n\n\n\n赠语\n\n忘掉自己的专长\n\n不要做铁锤人，一锤在手，满眼都是钉。解决问题有很多办法，很多办法比你手上的简单，简单才是美！\n考虑产品是怎样的，不是我最容易做成什么样\n\n\n在产品方案选择上，关注每一个细节，但在过程中要建立信息秩序\n在工程方案选择上，集中精力解决95%的问题，不浪费精力在5%的问题上，不要低估简单方法的有效性\n\n完成比完美重要，经常来说可以提早很多时间将变化提供给用户，且带来质的提高，雪中送炭；\n暂时放弃的20%的收益，对用户而言通常是锦上添花\n坚持选择简单方案另一个原因，是容易解释每一步和方法背后的道理，便于出问题时查错，且容易找到今后改进的目标\n\n\n用数据说话，再有sense的人也会犯错。Never get any conclusion without data\n提高自己的境界\n\n之前苹果的东西为什么做那么好\n境界高了，才知道关键技术在哪里\n\nipod的关键技术，google的关键技术\n\n\n\n\n最好的指引也是不要去做什么（可少犯很多错误），节省很多可能做无用功的时间\n所有产品最终都是要盈利的\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["算法"]},{"title":"敏感信息加密","url":"/%E6%95%8F%E6%84%9F%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86.html","content":"\n敏感数据的加密存储无论从国家，行业及监管合规层面，亦或是单纯提高自身信息安全水平的层面看均是势在必行的一则工作。\n\n业界实践中大批量数据的加解密一般选择对称加密算法，其计算效率远高于非对称算法。主流商用对称算法包括美国FIPS标准定义的AES算法，中国国标定义的SM4算法，国内肯定是用国密算法\n\n国密可不是简单的算法设计的问题，它包含了: 物理和环境安全（如电子门禁和视频监控）、远程管理通道安全、日志文件加密安全、网络和通信安全、应用和数据安全，人员管理和制度建设等立体化多角度的要求。\n密码学基础\n柯克霍夫原则（Kerckhoffs‘s Principle）\n有奥古斯特.柯克霍夫 于19世纪提出：即使密码系统的任何细节已为人所知，只要密匙（key）未泄露，它应该也是安全的。通俗理解也即一个密码学算法的安全与否不应基于算法本身是否为外界所知，即通过让算法变成黑盒子无法提高算法本身的安全性。当前密码学基本都基于这一原则进行设计，即算法细节公开，通过密钥的安全性来实现加解密算法的安全性。\n为何不能自行设计加解密算法\n违反柯克霍夫原则。业界目前普遍使用的算法，基本都是由权力机关牵头，众多业界专家反复论证多年并达成共识才作为标准公开使用的，安全性有保障。\n在应用层进行数据加解密\n从发生层次大体可分为：前端，后端，数据库，文件IO层，硬盘加密 五大类\n\n前端加密发生在系统安全边界之外，其运行环境安全性无法保障，首先被排除\n文件IO和硬盘，因为其发生层级低，能获取的元数据少，例如文件IO加密，系统仅能看到数据库底层映射的二进制文件，所以也只能对该文件进行加解密处理，无法再进一步区分哪些数据需加密，哪些不需要。这样对不同数据的管控能力基本为零，有悖于业界数据分类加密的安全思想。\n对比后端加密即数据库加密两种方案，数据库种类，版本繁多。不同种类，版本数据库对国密的支持能力也千差万别。如此看，后端加密（应用层）加密就成为最合适的方案（对第三方软件侵入性低，兼容历史现状）。\n\n敏感信息表改造\n一列字段换两列密文\n针对一个敏感字段，需新增两列密文字段\n\n摘要索引：存储原始值+盐（不可逆哈希）计算后的密文字段\n密文：存储密钥对称加密后的密文，密钥最好最小粒度到列级\n\n业务需要明文时，可用封装提供的解密SDK提取明文\n\n\n\n\n存储和计算资源估计要增加（每个明文字段要加上2个密文字段），密文是变长的（国密SM4算法分组对齐加密，二进制结果再转base64编码），摘要字段长度固定\n\n\n密钥策略\n\n摘要索引盐值整个公司统一\n\n不可逆，窃取到数据也要通过数据碰撞的方式来对明文进行猜测\n减少对称加密后数据无法关联的弊端（故需在可接受更广范围内使用相同颜值），关联计算比对值是否相等时直接使用\n\n\n密钥每个应用都不一样，甚至每一列密钥都不同\n\n考虑到密钥泄漏风险，更新密钥的代价，综合得出的策略。密钥应用范围越小，要更新数据的范围越小，要跟随更换密钥的应用越少。故范围越小越好\n行业监管要求标准各异，不会有统一的密钥期，统一技术方案方不会主动发起密钥失效\n\n\n\n密钥过期/泄漏如何更换\n依赖我们在加密数据前增加的标识位信息\n\n记录密钥版本，在切换密钥时知道如何解密\n记录算法信息，让SDK可判断算法无需向服务端询问\n包含一个MagicNumber，可快速排除非本系统加密的数据\n\n看到待弃用密钥加密的数据，那么就在解密提取明文信息后使用新密钥更新加密\n密文改造的挑战\n\n模糊字段查询\n\n密文索引有诸多方案，主要解决思路是将信息分片，如将11位手机号分成3/4/4三段，允许各自按约定规则达成模糊查询\n\n\n手写SQL\n\n这对彻底改造干净字段的处理逻辑带来不少的工作量，select * from也可能引入一定的逻辑风险\n应借此机会构建数据服务层，利用AOP降低应用和数据对象操作的耦合度，以注解方式标注要加密处理的字段，收口进行处理\n\n\n存储过程\n\n无在存储过程上的加解密方案，在加解密改造过程中，存储过程逻辑需要被改造和去除\n若存储过程仅为了搬运数据，可适当改造保留\n\n\n加字段性能风险\n\n老版本数据库在增加密文字段时的执行时间风险需要关注\n历史数据清洗会引起同步机制大量更新延迟\n\n\n\n催生的设计变革\n设计变革\n\n集中管理涉敏数据比分散在不同应用中好，相当于提供一个统一的数据服务，需涉敏信息原文时，都来这里取值\n加密后无可避免会有特权人员要对原始明文进行查阅确认的需求，如生产排障，事件调查。需要一种功能来应对这种密文或脱敏信息的即席查询需求\n授权长度可控，例如对人的授权通常为15天，30天，60天，365天不等。权限上也分脱敏查询权限，明文查询权限两类\n\n闭环管控流程变革\nflowchart LR\nsubgraph 增量\n\tA[新增应用\\库\\表\\字段]\n\tsubgraph 上线前-纳入安全开发流程\n\tB[需求评审存储加密需求分析&架构评审]-->C[安全开发安全策略申请&存储加密功能集成]-->D[安全测试/上线]\n\tend\n\tsubgraph 上线后-定期扫描监测\n\tE[风险控制和监督管理每月定期扫描，识别违规上线应用、字段]\n\tend\n\tA-->B\n\tD-->E\nend\nsubgraph 存量\nAA[存量应用\\库\\表\\字段]-->BB[制定整改计划]\nend\nBB-->C\nE--应加密未加密-->BB\n架构组成模块关系\n\n对于线条多的flowchart图，mermaid还真的胜任不佳\n\nflowchart LR\n\tsubgraph employee域\n\tA[(KMS加密机)]--秘钥管理-->B(((加解密服务)))\n\tC[/敏感数据扫描系统/]--敏感数据地图-->B\n\tB-..->|私钥加密策略|D((加解密SDK))\n\tB-..->|私钥加密策略|E[\\历史数据加密清洗工具\\]\n\tB-..->|私钥加密策略|F[[安全访问代理]]\n\tend\n\tG[员工]--查询加密数据-->F\n\tsubgraph user域\n\tBB[/应用服务\\]--数据保存-->CC[(应用数据库)]-->DD>ETL任务搬运数据]-->EE[(大数据平台)]FFfalse\n\tend\n\tAA[用户]--应用采集用户敏感数据-->BB\n\tD -..-x |加密增量数据及提供解密|BB\n\tD -..-x |加密增量数据及提供解密|DD\n\tD -..-x |加密增量数据及提供解密|FF\n\tF-->|涉敏查询审批动态解密脱敏|EE\n\tF-->|涉敏查询审批动态解密脱敏|CC\n\tC-..->|全字段采样扫描识别敏感信息|CC\n\tC-..->|全字段采样扫描识别敏感信息|EE\n\tE -..-o |加密存量数据|CC\n\tE -..-o |加密存量数据|EE\n改造步骤\nstateDiagram\n\tdirection LR\n\tA : 去扫描平台完成库、表、列等元数据信息扫描和确认\n\tB : 登录加解密服务平台配置策略等信息\n\tC : 策略文件下载\n\tD : SDK加解密功能集成\n\tE : 业务系统调用\n\t[*] --> A\n\tA --> B\n\tB --> C\n\tC --> D\n\tD --> E\n\tE --> [*]\n明确数据加密范围，上下游和关键风险后，接下来就是开干\n\n在涉敏数据表添加相应密文字段\n申请加解密sdk\n完成SDK完成增量加密\n存量数据加密清洗\n应用程序使用密文数据\n应用程序停写明文且清理历史明文\n\n最终目标：删除存量敏感明文\n\n明文如何清理\n\nDB不删除字段是例行做法\n按不同数据库方案兼容，写入“0”清除原明文敏感信息是目前兼容性最广的方案\n\n\n大数据环境怎么玩\n大数据的特别点\n大数据环境对数据的使用，更多是探索，挖掘等不确定性的使用。最具探索特质的带有主观能动性的数据工程师，而不是被设计出来完成固定任务的系统。理想化来说，大数据系统这使用数据的是分析师而不是系统\n\n\n数据权属主体是组织，组织的工程师是使用数据的主体\n\n\n几乎不存在数据生产者，因此数据资产主要来自于生产数据资产的使用权、使用权让渡\n\n\n数据所有权是业务系统所有，当生产环境数据通过ETL传输到大数据环境后，使用权发生了变化。若在大数据环境降低多源数据密钥不同对数据分析工作效率带来的影响，应考虑变更数据所有权（按大数据自己的密钥加密）\n\n多元数据汇聚（不同部门密文不同，摘要也不同），必须以所有权让渡的方式进行\n\n\n\n有无一种方法可允许数据属主保留数据资产所有权，同时允许大数据环境的分析师可对多源数据进行联合分析？  众多技术路线中有一路隐私计算，对密文二次加密后密文结果相同（相同明文两次加密后密文结果相同）\n\n在深度模型训练这种数据向量化的场景适用，但对数据分析师这种人工参与的场景有些理想化了\n\n\n\n\n\n加密没商量\n大数据加密方案将大数据也看作一个应用，不限于诸如Hadoop，spark，hive等大数据相关框架的应用场景。\n\n从加解密视角看，大数据应用是指数据来源多样化（包含使用不同密钥加密的数据或明文）的应用。\n\n应考虑提供各部门级别的解密授权特性（针对要获取大量应用解密授权）\n\n获得授权后，对于该权限内的加解密数据，都可在授权有效期内解密且无需更新配置文件，避免每增加一个数据源进行解密授权申请和策略文件更新下发\n\n大数据应用的敏感数据输出也可以转加密（以下游形式加密好，申请下游加密授权），要么直接以密文输出（此时下游申请大数据应用的解密授权）\n糅合那么多数据密钥怎么玩最妥当\n是一个求取平衡的过程，一个极端是大数据应用内所有数据用一把密钥进行解密，从管理及落地角度出发看比较简单，但从数据安全角度看密钥使用范围过大，存在前面讲过的问题。\n每条数据使用不同的密钥，带来的是管理成本和系统复杂度的提升\n从实践上看，按照不同的敏感数据类型进行密钥加解密是较合适的策略。如手机号使用同一把密钥，身份证号用另一把密钥，这样在管理成本，系统复杂度，安全性上能达到一个相对平衡的状态。\n多说几句\n\n不同法人主体间数据流动须有相应授权才对\n从数据安全角度，无论出入，不建议明文传输敏感数据\n解密授权意味着被授权方对敏感数据有了读取明文的能力，伴随而来就是密钥扩散的风险，也可能用此授权解密了非预期数据。\n反向加密授权就是敏感数据被污染的风险（可通过单项散列数据特征校验码来缓解此风险）\n密钥扩散的风险可通过单独准备一把数据共享密钥，用此密钥单独加密需共享数据的方式降低密钥扩散的风险\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"教育改变命运","url":"/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html","content":"\n\n\n\n内容的主体来自于畅销书作家吴军博士在17年《大学之路》书发布会的一次主题演讲，外加自己的一点杂糅感触\n\n悖论\n\n\n教育改变命运\n\n\n清北毕业生都买不起学区房，将来孩子还上清北干什么\n\n\n社会上常听见一种例子，上了大学白领工作，还不如一个保姆收入多，用以佐证教育无用论。但是教育改变命运又是一种历史共识。\n真是一对冤家，这问题是出在学校、社会、家长那，还是出在学生呢？原因皆而有之吧，开始。\n多面看问题\n学习（不限于读书）是为了明理，涨知识，在遇到事情的时候能开阔思路，而不是就会着急，积累下来你可以在更大的平台学习知识，展示自己。\n教育资源不平衡是与世界接轨\n\n不是中国特色，而是世界问题，竞争使然\n\n\n市场经济的成功，常让大家迷信了市场的魔力，仿似一切东西推给市场，就能有效解决。No，不要太相信市场化。教育资源不平衡是一个世界性的问题，并不仅是中国的痛。在今天的中国，三线城市里一个像样的中学，可能教育水平比30年前很多北京高中都好，教师水平，实验条件都要好。但现在中国最好的大学，最好的中学，你的孩子仍然未必进得去。\n90年代清华一年招2200人，30年后呢，现在3400，每年的量都不高。90年代还基本都是凭高考分数进，个别靠什么竞赛头名进（如计算机比赛第一名），但总量也就二三十人。现在3400人中，55%高考进，45%各种各样进，有如奥运冠军，奥数金牌，健美操加分（奶茶妹妹），还有一些自主招生，这样一来，靠高考进的还没90年代多。\n这就说明教育资源永远是个金字塔情况，顶尖的永远很难进，这就是现实，必须得认清。\n大学教育扩招解决问题了么？\n结果大学生多了，教育模式却跑步没跟上。大学生群体增多了，实在的结果是提升高层次人才规模，以与经济发展的水平和产业升级相匹配，也消解了人民群众日益增高的精神文化需求矛盾。没有这些基数打底，科技的发展加速度肯定是不稳的。\n硬币的另一面，也给管理者提出了新的挑战，企业和国家的治理模式，也要跟上民众教育水平的变化。这也是为什么很多老板创立的企业文化不适应90后的员工的深层原因之一，世界终将是年轻人的，管理者们只能迎接改变。\n阶层已固化吗\n大家狂谈内卷（战术上的勤奋，战略上的懒惰），到了一种网络上多到一种让人想吐的地步。殊不知向上的通道必然艰辛，向下的大门永远打开。你维持了现有的阶层可能并不差，没有走上去有各种各样的原因。\n\n什么叫内卷，换一种说法，指一种社会或人发展到某一阶段，达到一种确定形式后，便停滞不前，难以转化为另一种高级模式的现象，从而把自我锁死在低水平状态上，周而复始地循环。如何解决内卷化陷进，就是注入外界资源，对一个人而言，教育正是一个人解决此问题最好的外界资源，终身成长\n\n有人网络发言，说我从一个小地方来，在北京上了大学，快毕业时根本找不到工作，真个人感觉都不好了，抱怨这个社会不公平，拼颜值，拼爹。其实这个社会不欠你任何东西，从一个县城来也好，农村也罢，到了北京，已经是人生很成功的一步了，某种意义上你应该对自己满意，不要对自己太苛刻；另一点来说，你有自己的特长，你努力学习，用功肯吃苦，这就是你的优点。但这个世界上资源各种各样，长得漂亮也是一种资源，爹有本事也是一种资源，有些时候你不要光看到自己的独立，实际上那些富二代很多并不是都在打游戏。\n从阶层说，若分100层，你从第80层上升到60层已经是不错的事儿了，不要指望一下上升到第5层，第5层的人资源比你不知道多多少，他可能只努力20%，比你努力100%能做的事还多，这就是现实。每个人应该对教育，对自己有一个比较客观的预期，这才是比较好的。\n我们听到的教育改变命运的名故事，在国外说来说去总是那几个代表，在中国反倒身边例子很多，是不是证明这种情况本身就是稀缺的少数，是个困难的事儿，在中国反而是做得非常好，给了大家希望。\n你痛苦在于追求错误的东西（或维持所得理所当然），照内卷人朴素的逻辑，中国在金字塔向上爬的过程中，挤掉的国家，有一个甘心让位的？中国往上爬的过程是轻松的？位置就那么宽，上面的一个个都想踹一脚摔你下去。\n大富靠命，小富靠运\n其实很大程度上，最后并不是考试成绩决定了你最后成功与否，开玩笑的说，命运早就注定了，例如卵巢彩票或大时代，而教育本身就是让你的命运变得更好一点。\n而人一辈子不会都是坏运气，也不会都是好运气。\n如果说有起跑线，那么父母的格局是孩子的第一个起跑线，也就是说你哪怕有钱，到了智能时代以后，可能你遇到过几次很倒霉的事情，你一辈子的钱就没了。所以，一两次好运是帮不了人的，世界上任何人不可能永远是坏运气。活到今天的所有人没有五十代贫农的，五十代贫农的人早淘汰了，我们活到今天的人祖上都是王侯将相，或者你的亲戚是王侯将相，所以你不要跟我吹我祖上是哪个朝代的状元，哪个朝代的大员大户。那么就说明人永远有好运的时候，也有恶运的时候，在美国，所有中了千万以上大奖的那些人，基本上不出10年都成了穷光蛋，只有一家人例外，中奖后跑到一个小镇隐姓埋名过普通工薪阶层的生活。\n\n运气这事很重要，所有成功人士，总会感谢说:&quot;老天爷特别照顾我，给了我好运气，所以成功了”，并不是吹牛说，我一定比所有人强多少，而那个事干不成的人，可能也只是运气差一点。而约翰霍普金斯大学的前校长就曾经对全校毕业生做过一个演讲，就是讲运气的，他说：你们之所以能走到这一步，很大程度上是你的运气好，你要感谢这个运气，你自己要知道自己几斤几两，还举了杜鲁门的例子。\n\n不要指望在教育功效上每一个人都能成为火车发明者史蒂芬森，从最底层一下子到最顶层，认识清楚自己所在的位置，认识清楚自己的目标，教育是一个途径。\n时代的力量\n你所处的时代就是你的命运，一辈子能有多大成就，首先取决于你的时代。\n全世界75个最富有的人中20%出生在同一个国家，且都是在1830-1840年这10年间，这就是美国的第二次工业革命期间。洛克菲勒，老梅隆等都是那个时代的人，而中国现在所有的富人基本都赶上了改革开放的浪潮，所以，生在一个好时代，你的命运就被决定了，你要相信你这个时代。\n决定你命运的，首先是大时代，所以你到哪个山就要唱哪个山的歌。过去30多年是很好的时代，今后20年也会是不错的时代，该做什么就做什么。过去30多年我们中国人最大的不幸就是不相信这个时代，跟这个时代倒着走。\n时代也是你的运\n照吴军博士的说法，时代是命的一种，我听到过一个关于东方传统谚语的现代解读，将时代归到运中，也挺有意思，这里也一并奉上。\n一命二运三风水四积阴德五读书\n命是你的性格；运是你所在的时代；风水是你所在的行业/平台;阴德是你的善良，正所谓德位相配; 排到第五才是读书，都说明了教育不是一锤定音的按钮，你要有客观的期待。\n教育能改变命运吗？\nYes\n东西方国家都在各取所需的学习，阶层已经实打实的明显重现于这个古老的国度。在美国，社会的阶层分化很明显，基本上只有5%的人能从底层的20%上升到上层的20%，在实践中只要将底层的孩子与周围糟糕的环境隔离，他们都是可塑之才。但是前提是一定要好好读书，且要有读公立学校，拥有一技之长。例子如果想了解的话，可以去看美国的KIPP项目，但还是重复那句话，能爬到Top阶层，没那么简单，你要有合适的预期。\n很多基础教育学校其实像衡水中学，这些孩子在申请大学的时候，可能上不了常青藤大学，但他们可以上到州立大学。毕业后找到一份体面的工作，走出自己家庭所在的阶层。\n搞清楚自己的教育定位\n教育也分技能教育和博雅教育之分，用更接地气的说法来讲，衡水中学所培养的人和清华附中培养的不是一类人，让衡水中学像北京顶级中学那样培养人是错的，社会需求不一样，针对的家庭教育方式也是不一样的。蓝翔技校的毕业生要比白领赚得多，因为他们掌握了基本技能，这一点上无可厚非。在美国，私立名校的教育是为了更高一层的进阶准备的，但公立教育总体来讲就是技能教育。很可惜，我们国家也在大步学习西方这套东西，只是不愿撕破那层窗户纸。\n主题虽然是教育上升，但讲个偏题的，中国80%的人需要的是技能教育，我国的本科毕业率毕竟也就5%左右，不要受舆论主题吵吵一叶障目只看到5环内。\n中产上升注定艰辛\n实际上，中产阶层的孩子是最辛苦的，平时要上课，补习，还要学各种艺术体育等。没没办法，中产阶层要想进入精英阶层，就是最辛苦的。因为，你的孩子一方面要具备一技之长（接受技能教育），否则没有立足之地，另一方面，你认为的精英阶层需要具备的技能，需要在他这一代人中补齐。向上的通道太窄了，而教育也不会是轻松的，只会更辛苦，而向下的大门永远敞开，不辛苦就会面临阶层下滑。\n在美国也一样，中产阶层的孩子也是最辛苦的，在真正的上层社会，拥有的资源是别人没法比的，例如川普的女婿，据说练算数都算不清楚，但因为它父亲给哈佛捐了几百万，所以他轻松的进入了哈佛\n清醒反思\n学校里教的适合谋生不适合发财，适合无产不适合有产，中产只是学校技能学的好的无产而已。我们（中国）的教育太功利，筛选出来的是欲望最强顺便脑子不笨的。\n学校两功能\n\n\n第一孩子去动物化，基本规则和礼貌教好，不闹事不瞎折腾\n\n\n第二充当给社会提供成熟产品的流水线，人力市场需要啥产品就生产啥产品（孩子也不是你的孩子，而是社会资源）。\n\n阳春白雪搞艺术，心无旁骛做科研。 经济实用款最好使，观赏和情绪价值怎么都得排在面包之后。\n\n\n\n快乐教育与否\n快乐教育的功能是培养未来的普通劳动者，是对平民子弟的一种放弃，这就是教育的分层，资质普通的学生随波逐流，只掌握最基本的知识。\n美国的教育在快乐教育的基础上，还有办法将天才型学生甄别和选拔出来，在它好的教育体系下是德智体美劳全面发展的。再加上其能容忍失败的社会氛围，更使得它能涌现一些特立独行，不按常理出牌的天才型人物，能提出一些原创性思想。\n中国普通劳动者水平不差，但不利于偏才怪才的发挥和脱颖而出，故我们在科技的应用层面更强一点，美国的特点能吸引到世界上其它国家的一流人才，加强了它在科技领域的优势。\n起跑线\n起跑线虽然存在，但教育的重心不在学校在家中，但是品格是父母能给孩子最好的礼物，你自己是否热爱学习，如何待人接物，人生态度是否不屈不挠，不向逆境低头，传递给孩子更加重要。\n2021年的双减\n2021突出重拳，消灭了基础学科的校外培训。政策从来不是针对有钱人（群体小）的，政策是为了降低绝大部分人的军备竞赛烈度。敞开拼校外，大城市能把小地方打的抬不起头来，且市场能把所有体制内的好老师变成有钱人的专属老师，毕竟市场经济最擅长分层。针对不同财力的人，提供不同的服务。放任此种方式，校外就会搞出另一个教育体系。幼儿园比大学贵，就是一种体现。关键是这么折腾，也没有什么明显产出，跟电影院里人都站着和都站着都一样，只是体验差了一截。\n关于双减的争议很多，但改革都是在摸索中试错中向前推进，大家需要适应一段时间，当下不争议可能是最好的策略，当初的改革开放争议也很大。双减定为国策，会持续执行很多年，将来最终的目的是给家长减负，解决生育率的问题，包括后续要最终成型的所有细则，避免陷入最终要考移民来解决国家人口结构的结局上去。\n影响谁\n影响最大的中产（钱是整个系统的bug，有钱人不和你们一起玩的），他们赚的钱不够下一代丰衣足食，希望重现一把昔日靠教育的胜利，有学历崇拜。补课对学霸和学渣都没什么用，这层窗户纸没啥不好意思捅破的，父母操心的学渣，补课是救不了的。把高中基础知识掌握扎实了，能考个本科，基础问题弄不明白，进阶题目也是打酱油。老师课上讲的你都掌握不好，你还上什么课外班呢？课外班使得学生上课的注意力下降了，有课外班兜底思维的学生往往课外班也兜不住底。\n承认现实\n抓重点，扎实认真\n我们多都听过这句，脑子很好就是粗心，您那不是粗心，您那是缺一块。一道题涉及5个知识点，你只知道4个，最后解答出来好像快要对了，又没全对，又不承认现实，说自己粗心，不反思相同错误重复犯的毛病会持续一辈子。\n道理推广一下，一个app，几十万行代码，经常使用的不到5%。一个人性格深不见底，把事情搞砸的往往就是那么几个点。高速公路那么多，10%的部分跑来90%的车。人的工作学习也是一样的，经常用的东西就那么多，最重要的就是保证这部分内容不能出错，人能做到下次不在同一个地方摔倒，进步的比什么都快。贪多，最后容易搞得哪个部分都乱七八糟。\n大部分孩子学习不好，往往是两大原因：内驱不足，核心投入时间太少。\n内驱不足\n内驱不足是自己不想学，找不到学习的理由，这很普遍，绝大部分人就没有什么内生动力，一辈子都没有。学习的时候凑合着学，工作来凑合着干，生了孩子凑合着养，大部分人对长期目标不响应，但很少有人对短期激励不响应的，想想朋友圈里的砍一刀，为了打副本和兄弟们通宵战斗的网吧少年们。学霸们学习好往往也不是立志要建设祖国为人民服务，他们往往是从学习中获得了持续的短期成就感。同样公司的激励制度同样这些年在从长期激励在往短期激励转向，长期激励能筛选出大神，可是绝大部分人都被筛掉了。大人都缺少进取心，指望小孩更是痴人说梦。\n核心投入时间不足\n一个苏式冷笑话，他们假装给我们发工资，我们假装工作。太多人都在装上学，大家都懂。学习这种事，不在于在书桌旁呆多久，而在于有多长的时间真实投入，太多人狂补课，可真实投入时间少的可怜，毕竟注意力就那么点，太过分散可能哪一部分都不够用。类似高考或者工作这类长期斗争，最后胜出的往往都是性格的胜出。考清北需要脑子特别好，考个211主要是性格和习惯，其实985也是性格和习惯，养成好习惯，稳定的情绪，把预习，复习，认真做作业都做到了比什么都强，公务员考试律师资格等，都一样，不需要太强的脑子，需要慢功出细活，每一步走扎实，自然出成果，慢慢来，急也没有用。如果课堂上的没掌握，指望校外辅导不现实，都掌握了，也就不需要什么课外辅导了。\n面对双减回归纯粹\n校外补课纯粹只能锦上添花，没法雪中送炭（寄希望于补课也不比拜佛强多少）。所以双减把资本的煽动冷下来，绝对是好事，大家停下来想想该怎么搞，了解一下短板在哪，怎么激励，怎么保底，认认真真，扎扎实实走好每一步。\n结语\n最重要的是找到适合自己的位置。如果你在20岁是相信绝对公平，说明你是一个有情怀的人，但到了40岁，你依然相信绝对公平，那你就有点傻了。世界是不可能绝对公平的，因为一旦出现绝对公平，世界就停止进步了。\n蔡崇信的看法：有一两个专长，培养到前10%，告诉别人我是某一个领域的专家，这是得到尊重(成功）的前提。也即在某一领域追求专业卓越，将为未来的成功奠定坚实基础。\n从国内10~15年的时间段来说，还是偏向有一门技术比较好，甚至一些偏门的技术都不错。以我国的考古发掘和博物馆建设/翻新速度，这门基本一直需求不断，大量的钱在往文化上投资。考古甚至是刚性的技术性门槛的铁饭碗，还能衍生出第二职业写小说，😋\n教育资源永远是不够的，今天的中国高等教育同质性太强，每所大学都要建设成研究性大学，其实有些学校不适合，有些大学可能应该好好地搞教学，培养学生的一技之长，让这些学校大学毕业以后能够去发挥自己才干的地方。\nLiberal Arts Education\n在中国普遍称为素质教育，香港称为博雅教育，台湾通称为通识教育，虽然叫法不同，大家都认为在教授专业知识的同时，大学应注重通识教育（涵盖文学，技术，历史等），提供人文训练，培养人文素质。\n专业化的教育是让你掌握某种劳动技能，越垂直的专业人员只能对自己的本职工作负责，而无法对更大的整体工作负责。在技术创新非常快的时代，专业的确立的同时，还要主动寻求通识教育去提高个人素质，营养自身，抵御波动。\n\n我遭遇河南省高考素质教育改革的试点第一年，也踩在大学扩招的浪潮(超重点线20分，不在扩招浪潮应该也能考上所学校），现在回头也理解大综合科目的主观题比平时练习的大很多，是有道理的，只是正好切中自己自我观点和表达的软肋（各小学科综合客观题摸底我一直是学校头马，几近满分），若是客观题多就又陷入重理轻文的培养套路上，背离精神\n\n现在学科细分越来越严重，知识台阶越来越高，要出创造性的人才，又回到了要比拼科技积累的阶段，所以现在把STEM模式搬出来，企图在小学阶段就开始着手，没有坏处，物质条件也具备了，没办法，只能动脑筋让有能力有意愿的人能跳脱出来，其余的就走技能（快乐）教育吧，（stem 教育这一块数学是基石，数学是认知社会的一种逻辑，最好对这块不要放弃，或搞得孩子没自信）咱不去评断STEM你要不要拥抱，也就吴军博士的一些讲述做些摘要，他所处的阶层肯定是重视博雅/通识教育的。\n如果你在技能教育之外，也关注基础教育里的更多，可以看看这段章节，个人觉得语文和历史的精华表述还是有的，否则本文可以跳到末尾了。\n\nSTEM：Science，Technology，Engineering，Mathematics\n还有一种扩展是 STEAM，多加了一个 ART，这应该是培训界塞进去的，官方没有这种提法\n\n学语文\n📌 Why ?\n\n理解问题和表达思想：自己的想法要用合适的语言对合适的观众表达出来，而不是为了一点点简单的文采。\n语文是职业化的基本训练。在职场中，要做职业化的人，当你写邮件都写不明白，讲半天讲不清楚自己的意思，这样会给人的感觉是，这个人不职业化，我们都希望我们找的会计师，律师，医生是个职业化的人，而不是业余的，语文不好，永远给人别人一种业务的印象\n进入上流社会的敲门砖。不同阶层的用语是完全不一样的，学好语文是你说出来的话，用的词，能够达意准确，有的人为什么叫土豪，因为他数来说去都是那些基本词汇，完全没有文采，这是语文的重要性。很多人表达好就会一个词–好。有些时候你都不知道他说好是真的好，还是他知道这件事了。\n\n\n高等教育在最早的时候，大学只教拉丁文，为什么？三个原因\n\n读拉丁文的圣经\n那时学术语言是拉丁文，就是要训练你做事的职业化\n学会拉丁文，就学会了上流社会的语言。就像白话文早就有了，但只有读书人会写文言文，文言文就是你进入更高阶层的敲门砖\n\n\n语文要安排兴趣的时间，其依赖人文修养和广泛的阅读，要主动选择好的文本，克服浮躁和庸俗，把阅读变成兴趣驱动的习惯，最终会转化为热爱。\n学数学\n培养科学的常识和基本的素养，讲究逻辑和方法。每一种解决数学题的法，都是可以用于工作和创业（这句自己并没有通感）\n为什么很多人学不好，其实很多人题就读错了或没读懂。那是语文的问题，数学学不好1/3是语文不好。老师教了基本知识，也教了大多数解题逻辑，但分析和逻辑也是磨炼考验，在竞赛题和拉分题中，逻辑还是要从自己的基础知识和思索中来。\n数学需要整块的时间，需要高度的专注和独立思考，要敢于迎难而上，最好要集中精力进入心流的状态，才能深入理解概念，解破难题。\n学英语\n语言工具的学习重在记忆和重复，在于持续的积累，充分利用好碎片的时间，如晨读通勤睡前，巩固单词和句型，靠日常自律形成语感\n学历史\n历史在英语叫history（男人的故事），当然女权主义说应该叫herstory，但历史绝不是要讲故事。以史为鉴不容易，资治通鉴让皇帝们不要做荒唐事，司马光后的昏君照样数不胜数，远远比明君多，因为条件在变化，加之历史长河，各种正负向的例子你都能找得到，关键选择还是求心及审时度势。例如土木堡之变于谦守京城，打退蒙古人，救了明朝，换到崇祯时，应对李自成也这么干，结果城破自己上吊死了。\n美国历史说最好把历史当做研究，如何搞？给你有个问题，你把这个问题解决掉，自己去找一些证据，发表你的观点，证实你的观点，这就是做研究。证实了一句话，历史没有真相，只残存一些道理，你去找到一些道理就可以了。\n了解过去有助于我们变成一个更好的人，这有点像咱们说的以史为鉴，因为历史是在一个很长的时间线看问题的，从历史出发，你就可能了解未来。学历史是还会了解世界的多样性，会变得更包容，这个世界不像我们周围的生活这么简单。\n\n我有印象的是，少量基础教育的历史老师不是照本宣科，而是对照在同一年份东西方相互串讲，这当时就给我给震惊了，原来同时发生了好多事情，甚至还有联系，这个联系就是最美的地方，这远比让我们记和背的事情有意思多了。\n\n学科学\n不是信仰科学，只有宗教才是信仰，科学是怀疑，科学是要不断被证伪的，今天看上去正确的结论，明天可能就过时了。\n牛顿定律到了光速的的时候就不成立了就是例子。德国拜耳公司同一个化学家发明了两种药，阿司匹林和海洛因，刚开始的时候海洛因是个不得了的药，因为它可以让人戒掉吗啡，但后来发现它危害比吗啡还大。刚开始出现阿司匹林的时候，大家说这是一个坏的不得了的药，因为它副作用太大了，但后来把它做成了肠溶片，不在胃里溶解，到肠里溶解就没事了。所以换一个新环境，就会有新认知，科学就是这样不断地在进步。\n高等教育认知失调\n年毕业生数量\n当前每年大学毕业生接近1000w，从2000年到2022年，高校在校生人数从550w上升到4000w，年毕业生从100w增加到1000w，高等教育完成了从精英到大众普及的转变。所有的学历都贬值了，包括博士的毕业量。\n\n相较于美丽国年毕业生人数也才近400w人, 不过按人口总量来说，我们尚未追上US，毕竟总人口我们也是其4倍\n\n\n\n90年之前毕业的大学生，一共加起来才5000w人。\n\n\n近来5年中国新增4000w大学生，4000w什么概念，是全韩国的人口！\n\n\n2035年，我们中国45岁以下的青年劳动力都是90后，一共4.8亿人，共2.4亿人受过大学教育，全世界没发生过这样的情况。\n\n\n这个变化，对中国的经济结构和社会制度都会引来重大的变化牵动力量。\n中国早期的经济奇迹，是因地制宜地使用好人力资源，是利用3亿初中毕业的农民工结合出口导向和劳动密集型产业完成了如此成就，从人均800美金干到了8000美金。后面20年，这么好的人口结构资源，用好是个挑战。\n博士的通胀\n我国博士培养始于1978年，首年仅招了18个，但只有6人获得学位顺利毕业。\n90年代开始，招生规模一直处于年增长率9%的扩张中，95年首破招生1w人，99年首破毕业1w人。\n08年我国博士学位授予数首超美国。截止2007年，累积授予博士学位者达24w（这一数字到19年增长到88w，21年到101.85w），硕士则有180w。\n至2017年，40年间，博士招生规模从18人涨到了8.39w人，算是高速扩张。2020年毕业博士6.62w，21年毕业7.2w（当年70w硕士毕业），23年7.52w博士毕业，还在扩张中，大头还是去高校和科研机构（近40%），有稍超20%能去企业就业。\n七普的博士人口比重0.072%（还没算去世的博士），还低于主流发达国家水平（美国约1%）。一般来讲，教育强国人才占人口比重，博士1%，硕士10%，本科30%，换言之，1/3的人受过高等教育，才称得上一个真正教育强国\n巨变的认知滞后\n这个巨变不是到今天才完成的，从十几年前的2011年，毕业人数已经超过600w，在21世纪初的10年就完成了其它国家基本用了30-50年时间的高等教育的转变。如此短时间的剧变，确实会导致一个问题，那就是认知滞后。当前还有一些人认为上大学就是鲤鱼跳龙门，其实那得是上某几所大学才是。\n50，60，70里的绝大多数人都没受到高等教育，发现这个社会最好的资源都被身边极少数上过大学的同龄人掌握着，于是就对自己的下一代充满了殷切的期待，对通过高等教育改变命运，从社会底层跃迁到中上层充满信心，这种认知有些还相当固化。\n社会大多数人的固有认知与高等教育已经完成大众化的客观事实反差过大，认知的改变是需要时间的，我们发展的太快了，以致现在很多人还没反应过来。如果你也用50年的时间慢慢改变，认知和事实同步改变，人们是可以坦然接受大学毕业后从事一份普通的劳动工作，能去华尔街的仍然是极少数的名校精英，但是做卡车司机和修路工人也很正常，职业歧视也少了。\n说就业难的大学生不是找不到工作，而是找不到期望中的工作。供给量大了，稀缺性消失了，大家都是同样水平的普通人了。如果仍然把自己当做精英，工作当然难找了。工作难找，大学还要不要考？当然，如果你是普通人且追求上升变化的机会，上大学仍然可取，哪怕上大学和几十年前上初中变成一个水平，初中和文盲更是有差别不是。大学普通了，那就踏踏实实从基层做起，用智力和体力劳动换取相应的报酬，现在挣3000不要紧，要紧的是你能不能坚持学习，不断精进，报酬高低会随着你的能力上升，学历平平但毕业之后仍坚持学习的人几年之后都不会过得很差，大家的身边也不乏这样的榜样例子。\n当前中国的大学生硕士博士数量已不是几十年前可比，已不再稀缺，所以要修正希望。未来最稀缺的人才，可能是72变的人才，在一个瞬息万变，顺流逆流，整天面临新挑战的时候快速做出应对，博闻杂记，了解各种交叉学科，为人处事又如沐春风，能团结很多人和事情，这种领袖人才，组织能力，未来和人打交道的发展要远超和书本和工具打交道的。\n所有的成功都跟时代有关，顺势而为，因势而生，教育方式也要适应时代，时势造英雄。\n结语\n不管你是技能教育，通识教育，STEAM教育，受教育通常能跳脱工匠式经验的传承，而上升到一个积累式的经验改进上，这是教育给予人类的一种基础现实意义。\n通才就是蠢材，这个世界只有长板理论。战略是找长板，管理才是补短板。在初中高中阶段，\n\n第一，要服从内心，父母要善于发现孩子的天分，不要成为什么都齐备的人。\n第二，重视兴趣。\n第三，一专多能，补充通识知识。\n\n从中产到精英的升级，就是有我存在，对这个世界有什么贡献，或者说这个世界因为我多了一个什么事？从朋友圈影响力开始，到同行影响力比较好（前2%专业，职业选手在任何时候都发挥稳定，且多条腿走路多元化能力如演讲能力，有体系化的方法）\n总结\n\n我们当前处在一个非常好的时代，相信它，找一个相对好一点便于自己发展的环境，这个很重要，有时候我们再努力，也不如环境好\n教育的确能改变命运，但不要指望每一个人都能从最底层一下子到最顶层，认识清楚自己所在的位置和目标\n素质教育很重要，但是在一开始温饱阶段，必须掌握一个技能。须抛弃不切实际的文艺思想，无论在任何地方，都要讲理讲利益。\n人的见识、教育可以加速进步，正因为这个好处，大家终身接受教育\n一个人如果不看书，其价值观就由其身边的人决定，因为他没有其它的输入途径。只能模仿周边的人或者慢慢被环境所改变。书是向上的阶梯，是启迪智慧的良方，是唤醒心智的道法。\n\n孩子长大不陷入痛苦失落，做父母的就成功了，心之所向，便是光芒。\nAI 终将学会人类的所有本事，这是人类最大的挑战和机会，可能会颠覆社会结构和经济模式，同时也能解决气候变化，疾病等全球性问题，同时也能创造前所未有的发展机会。用上 AI，培养对它的能力直觉。人类创造性学习和问题解决的能力，将成为你核心的竞争力。另外，别纠结过去，专注于解决眼前的问题，遇到困难的时候，不要陷在『如果当初怎么样就好了』的情绪里，而是直接问自己『下一步该怎么去改善现状』，这能让人更能应对 AI 时代的不确定性。社会可能跟不上技术的脚步，AI 的发展速度可能远超社会的适应能力，如现有的法律教育体系，可能无法及时应对 AI 带来的伦理问题。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["育儿"]},{"title":"数字化时代回看运维","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%9B%9E%E7%9C%8B%E8%BF%90%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n从维护到流程革命\n一想起”运维“这个词，大家就想到的是运行维护，保证系统稳定运行。\n中国互联网发展创造了科技神话，伴随着用户和设备规模不断扩大，运维技术也不断发生变化\n\n人工运维\n脚本和工具的使用\n平台建设，向自动化，智能化方向发展\n\n运维和开发人员从”分离“状态转变成”融合&quot;状态，DevOps从一种实践方法论从09年出现，逐渐涉及到开发和运营生命周期的各个阶段。\n运维工作也从操作性的维护工作，发展为需要多方面知识，具备IT综合能力的研发运维工作，难度也翻了山头。从维护性工作到软件开发革命。\n\n从人工脚本到自研平台\n互联网早期，线上系统规模和服务器数量不大，可用脚本来进行部署维护工作，最初的业务运维，也就是做好服务器的部署和变更，及时处理掉一些告警，排除隐患\n2010年左右，互联网行业快速发展（SNS互动大爆发），用户规模增大，要维护的系统资源有了大规模的增长，靠人工脚本已经捉襟见肘，运维的“资源”和运维岗的人数同步上升，到后来，资源可大规模投入，但运维人员可不能照样同步增加\n人工运维存在风险，效率也无法支撑规模化发展，就进化到用平台去解决运维问题的主流方向，运维平台使得研发和运维互为结合，DevOps概念开始出现\n云计算的发展，成千上万的服务器，运维必须从全局角度思考如何用平台化的手段解决问题，追求大规模场景下的效率，用集中化的监控平台把云数据中心的告警等统一在一个地方管理\n运维从最初的职能（安全+质量），扩展到（安全+效率+质量+成本）多维度并看\n云计算的成本是商业模式里非常重要的一个因子，需考虑如何用最优的成本去提供优质服务，要极致，就要对系统有精细化的掌控，运维有了开发职能，对研发能力要求也提升了，难度非脚本时代可比拟的了\n云服务\n数据中心的运维是云服务正常运行的一大支柱，电力系统，空调系统，新能源储能跨界设计\n早期的基础设施层面，属地化运营，监控告警都是厂商提供的，但随着规模扩大，效率要求提升，就需要自研集中平台化的统一运维平台，全层级掌握非厂商层面可以做到（集中监控，园区，模组，配电单元，采集器等）\n过去的告警一般从设施出问题到捕获到告警大概是分钟级，自研的要求能提升到10秒下，及时定位排除故障\n云数据中心，还引入对基础设施的物理建模，用数字孪生技术实现对基础设施的配电和暖通的图形建模，可视化表征整个数据中心实时运行状况\n基于图模一体的技术实现告警风暴的收敛，包括告警的一些降噪处理，把影响到现场运营效率的无效告警在平台层面处理掉\n\n运维利用故障树，知识图谱等方式快速定位故障根因，节省故障排查时间\n用AI模型对设备进行精准预测，实现设备自动化巡检，保障运营安全等\n用机器学习算法和设备机理结合，寻找最优设备运营控制策略，节约运营能耗\n\nDevOps\n研发团队在引入敏捷后讲究快速变更和迭代，运维层面追求的还是稳定，可靠，安全，沟通协调琴瑟不和，总是争论。\nDevOps之父提出一个解决方案，聘请“思维过程与开发一样的运维人员”，建设系统以一步构建和部署项目。最终发展成一系列自动化整合实践，让所有团队回到最初的目的上来，更快更可靠的构建测试，更高效的交付软件。\n\n源代码管理\n持续集成\n软件测试自动化等流程\n\n背后避免浪费，自动化，全流程的思想给企业带来了一定的收益，降低了信息化转型过程中的门槛\nDevOps是敏捷发展的自然结果，在最后一公里破墙衔接起来了。\n谈业务成本的时候，在分析每一个不良的中间环节时，都需要去思考怎么尽可能去减少浪费\n微服务\n微服务是研发组织扩张的一剂良药，但也带来了更高的运维复杂度，提高了可观察、测试等难度，容器的出现给微服务提供了一个量身定做的底座\n\n研发组织扩张是应对复杂度上升的需要\n\n容器化提供支持后，DevOps自动化的能力，成本管理能力都得到了加强。DevOps需对全流程有更多的观察，更多的透明性。容器技术的资源伸缩，成本的控制，很好地提供了支持\n当大家有了共同的目标，开发团队也在转型，会去关注质量的左移和右移，尽早发现问题，避免问题向下游走，也会更多去关注运维层面的问题，根据发生的问题去做复盘和根源分析，缩短问题解决的时间，更高频的交付。\n软件运维的主要矛盾是不断增加的架构复杂度和快速变更间的矛盾。按理说，运维也会参与架构设计层面的事情，对架构进行抽象，提供更标准化的架构设计和建议，因为标准化的架构设计就意味着更好更轻松的运维能力，抽象层的建设也能更好实现运维层面的自动化工作。\nAIOps\n在深度上，在数据问题上，结合人工智能，就有了AIOps，基于算法的运维\n海量信息中有大量需要去挖掘和观察的信号，这正是AI擅长的范围。\n通过挖掘在可观测领域曝出来的这些数据，消灭噪音，做自动化告警的聚合，最终带来更深入，更准确，更快的运维，价值是非常明显的\n\n怎么快速在大量报警信息中得到因果关系，快速选择最正确的响应变更路径。进一步提升故障预警能力，建立提前防御的机制。\n\nAIOps也给运维工程师提出了更高的要求，不仅左移到架构，代码方向，更要提升一些更垂直的能力，如掌握大数据，机器学习这些知识。把运维经验结合运维数据，用机器学习的方法对这些数据进行归纳总结，模型评估，模型选择，参数调整等运维决策，成为一种多领域结合的专家\n数字化转型\n数字化转型意味着引入技术，流程和文化以实现共同目标，拆开来看\n\n资产的全生命周期管理，实时掌握资源使用情况，系统健康状态\n实现数据的可视化，自动化部署，自动化处置，自动化故障接管等\n逐步发展的趋势是：提高各岗位对数字精细化的敏感度\n\n高密度IT机架运行大数据和AI业务会消耗大量电力，要确保关键业务可靠运行，必须保证机架峰值功率运行在额定容量内。没有可信精细数据，可能倾向于保守运营，预留太多冗余容量。数据精细可信及有综合分析能力（应对数据异常）时，可在保证可靠情况下充分提升电力容量利用率，降低电力成本，也符合各企业碳中和的战略目标\n\n\n\n数字化是对现实场景的数字化表征，一定体现在对数据的实时掌握的基础上，要求数据的采集，监控是全方位的，并且是立体的。\n数字化转型意味着团队经常应对发生冲突的挑战\n\n建立学习型组织，每个角色都有全流程能力\n\n结语\n一路而来，是一路超载发展的路程。“超载”，就是在不同时期，根据业务需要被赋予不同的职责和责任，有此而来，想象的空间才会变大，可做的事情也越来越多，未来会有更多可以发展的方向。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["运维"]},{"title":"数据中台与技术漫谈","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%BC%AB%E8%B0%88.html","content":"\n数据中台\n数据中台并不产生数据，而是将组织在业务中产生的全域数据，汇进数据中台建立一套标准，形成数据资产后再进行服务化，业务化的过程。\n目标\n目标在于提升运营效率，决策效率，数据精准。对外支撑各种场景应用。\n\n在实施上把数据加工，存储，分析，建模等与数据相关的所有事情都可轻松的解决\n从管理上把一切的数据，口径，项目，工程等都管理起来\n面对客户，使客户一站式在此平台上获取到任何想要的数据，有足够的数据应用能力\n\n价值锚定\n梳理业务场景：搞清楚中台如何对业务产生价值，回归到业务本质，如何提升商业能力\n工作范畴\n工作内容涵盖：（1) 数据标准和指标建设 （2）数据采集（3）数据集成（4）数据治理（5）数据应用（6）数据资产管理（7）大数据仓库等技术应用\n\n能力建设\n复用性，资源整合，能力沉淀，数据深度整合沉淀为公共数据服务，这些能力在构建数据中台之初就是必须去直面的问题。\n\n\n能力沉淀：（1）数据接入能力（2）计算能力（3）存储能力（4）业务支撑能力（5）展现能力\n\n\n数据域的建设，分为\n\n内容建设\n工具建设：（1）ETL 过程（2）数据工具（3）调度工具（4）元数据工具（5）指标字典（6）库表字典（7）数据质量\n\n\n\n\n\n\n内容价值探索，工具体系化建设是数据平台的基石，内容透过工具提取出价值\n\n\n指标字典：解决公司指标管理，口径管理的问题\n\n\n每个工具产品解决特定领域的问题\n\n\n\n数据治理怎么强调都不为过\n和业务独立开的数据治理少有成功的，治理需要跟业务场景紧密结合\n\n\n大的数据标准要有（数据资产目录），通过数据资产目录将共有的维度，共性的业务模型提炼出来\n\n\n建立统一的企业级数据指标体系，解决数据来源多元化和标准不统一的问题。规范有序的完成数据采集，建模，分析，集成，应用和资产管理\n\n\nblock-beta\ncolumns 5\na[\"应用\"] block:application:4\n\t服务使用分析 服务提升建议 趋势分析 个性服务推荐 影响分析\nend\nv[\"可视化\"] block:visualization:4\n\t报表 大屏\nend\ns[\"服务管理\"] block:service:4\n\t服务创建 API 管理\nend\nm[\"资产管理\"] block:management:4\n\t资产门户 标签管理 价值评估 标准管理\nend\np[\"资产建设\"] block:property:4\n\t数据交换 \n\tdd[\"数据开发\"]\n\t算法建模\nend\nblock:develop:5\n\t可视化开发IDE 任务发布管理 任务调度管理 任务运维监控\nend\ni[\"基础设施层\"] block:infrastructure:4\n\tAWS S3 RDS ...\nend\ndd-->develop\ndata[\"各类数据源\"]:5\n算法建模管理\nblock-beta\ncolumns 7\na[\"分类\"] block:a1:6\n逻辑回归算法 SVM算法 ID3算法 C4.5算法 随机森林算法\nend\nb[\"回归\"] block:b1:6\n线性回归模型 朴素贝叶斯模型 Lasso回归模型 Ridge回归模型\nend\nc[\"聚类\"] block:c1:6\nK均值算法 高斯混合模型 DBSCAN算法 幂迭代聚类模型 隐含狄利克雷分布\nend\nd[\"关联降维\"] block:d1:6\nApriori d2[\"FP-growth\"] SVD奇异值分析 PCA主成分分析\nend\ne[\"时间序列\"] block:e1:6\nAR模型 MA模型 ARIMA模型 ARCH模型 GARCH模型\nend\nf[\"识别\"] block:f1:6\n产业舆情矩阵模型 产品价格弹性模型 产业聚集度模型 团伙分析模型 重点人员行为模型 商标相似度检测模型\nend\ng[\"预测\"] block:g1:6\n企业成长性模型 重要商品价格预测模型 钢铁企业融资模型 环境预警模型 销售订单预测模型\nend\nh[\"优化\"] block:h1:6\n资本热度模型 景气指数模型 克强指数模型 扶贫资金分配优化模型\nend\n团队划分\n\n业务专家团队+数据治理团队\n数据工程团队（平台）+数据分析团队\n智能算法团队\n\n\n数据中台和数据平台有一个潜台词的区别，就是最终会有数据服务化的目标，提高数据共享能力，治理的好避免数据的重复计算\n\n一般一上来就喊中台化的基本入不敷出，不是人员投入问题，就是实施方向以及定位到底是什么不明确，有的企业用演进的办法来做实施是个非常不错的选择。\n失败的数据中台常碰到如下问题\n\n「人的争斗」：有几方人/势力都想驱动这个平台，想法太多\n「能力问题」：做中台难度和普通产品比，有量级的差异，能力不足，真搬不动这块石头还砸自己的脚\n「头疼医头」：原本一条线到头的建设，实际上变成头痛医头的复杂网建设\n「高投低产」：资源问题，产研几十位，运营几十，数据人员几十，审核人员可能上百，算上流动，前后大概可能有好几百人。如果一开始给了老板很高的预期，希望花一年的时间几十人就能完成中台的建设，到头来不断降低预期，投入产出比不断透支，可想最终的结果\n\n数字化转型，忐忑艰苦\n指导思想\n被动响应转主动建设，修炼内功，降本增效\n\n工具建设提升自身效率（标准化，组件化，内部运营工具）\n沉淀优化内容建设\n围绕业务场景化做敏捷探索\n\n总结与例说\n综合言之：支持业务商业模式不停快速尝试下的数据场景化需求，还要进行自身内容与工具化建设，拆解历史包袱 !\n系统化$\\longrightarrow$业务在线化$\\longrightarrow$业务信息化$\\longrightarrow$数据整合化$\\longrightarrow$业务智能化；也有企业信息化能一部到位，毕竟这样的很少，更多是原来资源的整合升级\n举例：\n\n\n定制化的数据产品改成了可配置化，持续做减法，表从近万张缩减到几千张，成千的指标一样做缩减\n\n\n通过该数据做数据作战地图–数据产品的方式来做数据模型的阶段性布局和设计（定优先策略）\n\n\n过去的债务\n在过去企业构建IT基础设施的过程中，逐渐形成了各种烟囱式的数据设施，也带来了数据孤岛问题，还有一点可怕的事是：ETL任务和中间过程大量膨胀，不仅是存储问题，更大的挑战是无数的ETL任务其实不断地做重复性的工作，不断消耗整个数据集群的资源，还存在数据口径不一致的问题。数据来源又可能有分歧，如这个部门说自己是从PowerBI中看到的，另一个部门说是从数仓里看到的，这就不能帮助企业做出高效的决策。\n过去上了ERP到电子化时，就有一个企业流程再造的说法，就是说你上系统要先梳理自己的业务流程，梳理不好系统上不去，也没法提升管理能力。现在和那个阶段有一点味道相像，一样要先将企业的指标，数字化运营的思路理清楚，如果讲不清业务目标，过程目标，结果目标，那就不知道拿什么追踪，拿什么来做数字化的管理？\n各部门各组织都非常有欲望生产自己的数据指标，会形成几百倍的放大。不同部门指标不统一，指标过时，都属于管理问题。\n古早技术概念介绍\n数仓的星型和雪花模型（多表组合模型）\n区别就是对维度表的拆分，雪花模型维度表设计更加规范，一般符合第三范式；而星型一般采用降维操作，用冗余避免模型过于复杂，提高易用性和分析效率。\n在数据仓库中多用星型模型，构建宽表，维度整合，减少多表关联，方便性能高。\n在数据采集中，要注意完整性校验，针对缺失字段的数据建议直接丢掉，也可以用同列前/后一个数据来填补。还要注意合法性校验，异常值全部替换为一个特殊值（特殊值这要根据具体的业务场景而定）\n宽表模型和多表组合模型\n\n\n\n宽表型\n组合模型\n\n\n\n\nElasticsearch、Solr应用Scatter-Gather计算模型\nGreenPlum\n\n\nClickHouse\nPresto\n\n\nDruid\nImpala\n\n\n\n宽表模型能提供比多表模型更好的查询性能，不足的是支持的 SQL 操作类型比较有限，如对 Join 等复杂操作支持较弱或不支持。\n多表组合模型一般均基于 MPP 架构，相较其它类型的 ROLAP 和 MOLAP，通常不具有性能优势，实时性较一般。但其支持的数据量大，支持 SQL 类型多样，这样通用系统往往比专用系统更难实现和进行优化。\n基于明细数据的多维模型、雪花模型能支持业务灵活用数问题，但性能问题令人头疼，ROLAP 开发简单但效率完全依靠数据库本身，当数据量到一定程度后很难保证性能，所以又出现了大量为解决性能而开发的报表物理表（宽表），MOLAP 能解决效率方面很多问题，但相对于 ROLAP 会带来管理运维成本的增加。\n基数估计\nCardinality Estimation一直是大数据领域的重要问题之一：一批数据中，不重复的元素有多少个。以 UV 为例，对访问量巨大的系统来说，统计出 10 亿和 10 亿零 10w 其实没太多的区别，因此，在这种业务场景下，为了节省成本，可只计算出一个大概的值，没必要算出精准的值。\n大家常规用字典的数据结构，遍历字典后，得到的整体计数就是这批数据的基数了。这种算法虽然精准度很高，但使用的空间复杂度却很高，故提出一些近似方法，估算数据集合的基数。如 HyperLogLog，MinCount，ThetaSketch\nOLTP vs OLAP\n\n\n与 OLAP 不同，OLTP 系统强调数据库内存效率，强调内存各种指标的命中率，强调并发操作，强调事务性\n\n\nOLAP 系统则强调数据分析，强调磁盘 I/O，强调分区。它是一种让用户可以用不同视角方便快捷分析数据的计算方法，主流 OLAP 可分为三类\n\n\nMOLAP：多维 OLAP，Multi-dimensional：典型代表是：Druid，Kylin，Doris，它们一般会根据用户定义的数据维度，度量（也可以叫做指标）在数据写入时生成预聚合数据；Query 查的是预聚合数据而不是原始明细数据，不支持明确数据的查询，仅适合这种查询场景相对固定且对查询性能要求非常高的场景。其优缺点都来自于其数据预处理环节，预聚合处理需预先定义维度，会限制后期数据查询的灵活性，如果查询工作涉及新的指标，需重新增加预处理流程。\n\n\nROLAP：关系型 OLAP，Relational。典型代表是：Presto，Impala，GreenPlum，Clickhouse，ES，Hive，SparkSQL，FlinkSQL。数据写入时，ROLAP 并未应用像 MOLAP 那样的预聚合技术，ROLAP 收到 Query 请求时，会生成执行计划，扫描数据，执行关系型算子，在原始数据上做过滤，聚合，关联，分组，排序，整个过程都是即时计算，拼的都是资源和算力的大小。ROLAP 不需要进行预处理，因此查询灵活，可扩展性好，这类引擎使用 MPP 架构（与 Hadoop 相似的大型并行处理架构，可通过扩大并发来增加计算资源），可高效处理大量数据。有人说 Spark SQL 和 Flink SQL 属于 DAG 模型，其实 DAG 并不算一种单独的模型，它只是生成执行计划的一种方式。\n\nHive执行 ad-hoc 查询慢的痛点，推动了 MPP 内存迭代和 DAG 计算模型的发展。\nMPP减少 IO资源消耗，充分利用 CPU 资源，但事情往往是两面的。中间结果不落盘，正常情况是利好，异常情况如出现节点宕机，需要重新计算中间结果，拖慢任务完成时间。另扩展性没有 MR 架构好，随着 MPP 系统节点增多到一定规模，源于木桶效应，性能无法线性提升，且规模越大，出现宕机、坏盘等异常情况就会愈频繁，会导致 SQL 重试概率提升。所以 MPP比较适合执行时间不会太久的业务场景，如数小时，因为时间月越久，故障概率越大。\n\n\n\nHOLAP：混合 OLAP，Hybrid。将聚合信息存储在 OLAP 服务器上，详细记录保留在关系表中，因此不会保留重复副本，平衡了磁盘空间需求。劣势正是同时支持 MOLAP 和 ROLAP，本身体系结构非常复杂。\n\n或者换种说法其允许模型升级者决定哪些数据存储在 MOLAP 中，哪些数据存储在 ROLAP 中，把数据划分成传统关系型存储（细节数据）和专有存储（聚合数据）\n\n\n\n\n\nOLAP 脑图\nmindmap\n\troot((OLAP))\n\t\tROLAP)ROLAP(\n\t\t\tMPPDB\n\t\t\t\tDoris/StarRocks\n\t\t\t\tClickHouse\n\t\t\t\tGreenPlum\n\t\t\tSQL-On-HadoopNaN\n\t\t\t\tMPP架构))MPP架构((\n\t\t\t\t\tPresto\n\t\t\t\t\tImpala\n\t\t\t\t\tDrill\n\t\t\t\t\tHAWQ\n\t\t\t\t通用型))通用型((\n\t\t\t\t\tHive\n\t\t\t\t\tSparkSQL\n\t\tMOLAP\n\t\t\tKylin\n\t\t\tDruid\n\t\tHOLAP\n\t\t\tMicrosoft SQL Server Analysis Services\n并发差异\n在 OLAP 场景，一般认为 QPS 达到1000+就算高并发，而不是 10w 以上才算，毕竟数据分析场景，数据海量，计算复杂，达到 1000 已经非常不易。\n如 Clickhouse 在 TB 级别，单集群达到 100 已经很困难，更适合企业内部 BI 报表使用，而不是广告主平台报表。Clickhouse 的执行模型决定了它会尽全力来执行一个 query，而不是同时执行很多 query\nHadoop的调度演进\n在 Hadoop1 中，MapReduce计算框架既负责集群资源调度，还负责 MapReduce 程序运行，资源调度和计算的高度绑定耦合。\n到了 Hadoop2 改成了Yarn+MapReduce 的架构，这样就保证 Hadoop 集群既能跑 MapReduce 计算任务，还能跑任何支持 Yarn 资源调度的计算任务，如 Spark，Storm 等。\n大数据架构\nLambda 架构\n\n同一套指标需开发两套代码进行在线和离线分析，维护复杂。\n数据应用查询指标可能需同时查询离线数据和在线数据，开发复杂。\n两套引擎（流+批），运维复杂\n数据更新要 overwrite 整张表或分区，成本高\n\n随着在线分析业务越越多，Lambda 架构的弊端越发明显，增加一个指标要在线、离线分别开发，离线指标还可能和在线指标对不齐，部署复杂，组件繁多。真是一个痛苦的时代。\nKappa 架构\n使用同套引擎同时处理在线和离线数据，数据存储在消息队列上。也有其局限：\n\n消息队列的容量特性使得历史数据可能无法回溯；数据可能乱序，可能对部分时序要求严格的应用造成数据错误。\n流计算引擎批处理能力较弱，处理大数据量性能较弱。\n从消息队列取数没有 SQL 自然，需要开发适配，开发复杂。\n\n湖仓一体化\n实时数仓\n三大当红国际派\n基于 Lambda 和 Kappa 架构的缺陷，凸显了在大数据领域，实时数仓的建设和维护非常重要。Uber 孵化的Hudi，Databricks 孵化的 Delta lake，Netflix 孵化的 Iceberg 都在尝试解决此问题。三者均为 Data Lake 的数据存储中间层。\n\n\n\nHudi为了解决 uber 的增量 upserts问题；\n\n\nIceberg 诞生于Netflix, 旨在解决文件列表等云存储规模问题（当时是 S3 上存储大型 Hive 分区数据集时出现的性能，可扩展性和可管理性挑战），定位高性能分析与可靠的数据管理；\n\n\nDelta 定位流批一体的数据处理\n\n\n\n三种场景的不同造成三者设计上的差别。Delta 在数据 Merge 方面性能不及 hudi，查询性能不如 Iceberg，但与 spark 整合好，工作场景多。从字节和亚马逊的实践上看，当前上下游生态的开放性和成熟度上，对全局索引的支持，对某些存储逻辑的定制化开发接口，Hudi 暂胜一筹。如 hudi 有强大的数据摄取实用程序deltaStreamer允许你从各种来源增来摄取上游更改。\n\n三者都支持数据可变更，并发控制也都支持的不错。其中 Hudi 相比较另两个还支持 Merge on Read，能更好应对流式场景，减少写放大的发生。\n在元数据变更上，Iceberg 很有优势，其设计能进行Full Schema Evolution，可任意地改变列的位置，类型，还提供 Partition Evolution，能帮助更好地管理数据。另两个引擎，Delta 只能与 Spark 结合，利用了 SparkSQL 的 Schema，Hudi 同样直接使用 SparkSQL 或 FlinkSQL 的 Schema，在 Schema Evolution 上比较弱，只支持在最后新增列。\n在多引擎支持方面，Iceberg 原生设计就为了支持多引擎，分层设计很好，想增加一个新的引擎时就很简单。Delta 和 Spark 绑定骄较深，移植困难。Hudi 支持多引擎，只是支持别的引擎的话，增加代码会比较多，需从底层往上垒代码\n对后端存储的支持，Iceberg 对后端存储之要求简单的三点，不管是分布式存储还是对象存储大多数都支持。Delta 相比 Icegerg，它的 Constant Listing 是比较严格的要求，有些对象存储可能满足不了。Hudi 并未对存储有什么具体要求，只要你实现一个 Hadoop FileSystem API，就可以跑 Hudi[6]\n\n对于数据湖，大家可能进行数据探索和开发，如果你的存储格式在并发读/并发写（包括元数据变更）上不友好，在任务编排上就会出现很大的局限性。另外最好对多种计算引擎都亲和支持，以方便拥抱技术调整，还有一点比较重要的是部署和存储选择灵活，HDFS，云托管，对象存储也支持。\n多记一嘴 Hudi\nHudi 和 Hive 间的关系是相互依赖的，Hudi 作为数据管理工具，可将数据以 Hudi 表的形式存储到 HDFS中，而 Hive 可通过 Hive 表的方式对 Hudi 表进行查询和分析。可理解为 Hudi 赋能了 Hive 表增量更新和删除的能力，且相较于几种原始表存储格式有更高效的索引实现。它本质上是在大数据存储上的一个数据集，使得用户能在 Hadoop 兼容的存储上存储大量数据（其实也可以不依赖 hadoop。可以用操作系统的文件系统存储，但为了分析性能和数据可靠性，一般都搭配 HDFS），对上可暴露成一个普通的 Hive 表或 Spark 表，通过 API 或命令行可以获取到增量修改的信息，且保管了修改历史，可做时间旅行或回退。\n\nHudi 以两种不同的存储格式：读优化的列存格式 ROFormat，缺省值是 Parquet；写优化的行存格式，缺省值是 Avro\n\nDoris\nDoris是一个 MPP（大规模并行处理框架-Massively Parallel Processing） 架构的分析型数据库，孵化于百度的 Palo，是根据 Google Mesa 论文和 Impala 项目改写的一个大数据分析引擎「架构整合 Google Mesa + Apache Impala + ORC列式存储三种技术，通过 Mesa 实现预聚合，Impala 实现 MPP连接处理，ORC 列存储更好服务 OLAP 数据分析」，兼容标准 SQL 且完全兼容 MySQL 协议，运维部署难度不高（只有 FE：负责管理元数据、解析 SQL 生成和调度查询计划+BE：存储数据及执行 FE 生成的查询计划 两种组件）。简单易用，多副本的机制减少数据网络拷贝，将数据进行分区分桶后分发散列到各个节点实现分布式计算，亚秒级获得查询结果，有效支持实时数据分析。\n支持批量数据和流式数据 load ，支持数据更新，支持聚合表和物化视图，特点是采用了预聚合技术，向量化执行引擎（ShareNothing 架构，且在数据写入时建立多级索引，将任务并行分散到多个服务器和节点上，结合单节点的多核并行处理能力，在每个节点计算完成后，将各部分结果汇总在一起得到最终结果），再加上列式存储，是一个高效的查询引擎，如果你数据量比较小，可在 Doris 里完成一站式分析。\n但当数据量变大时，ETL 和分析都在 Doris 里进行时，会相互影响性能，这时势必要将 ETL 任务分摊出去，外挂湖。\nKudu\nKudu 需要单独部署集群，Hudi 则不需要，还有个关键区别是 Kudu 还试图充当 OLTP 的工作负载和数据存储，且 Kudu 虽然支持更新，但不支持增量拉取，在增量自动处理方面 Hudi要方便的多。\nKudu 于分布式文件系统抽象和 HDFS 完全不同，它自己的一组存储服务器通过 RAFT 相互通信，Hudi 则与 Hadoop 兼容的文件系统(HDFS,S3,Ceph)可一起使用。\n不同于Hudi 或 Delta Lake 是作为数据湖的存储方案，Kudu 设计初衷是作为 Hive 和 HBase 的折中，同时具有随机读写和批量分析的特性。但相较于前两者，Kudu 不支持云存储，版本回滚和增量处理。\n总结\n新技术的出现使得数仓支持 ACID、Update/Delete、数据 Time Travel、Schema Evolution 等特性，使得数仓的时效性从小时级提升到分钟级，支持部分更新，兼具流计算的实时性和批计算的吞吐性，支持近实时场景。\n但也要认识到数据湖模式无法支撑更高的秒级实时性，也无法直接对外提供数据服务，需要搭建其他的数据服务组件。\n湖仓对比\n\n\n\n对比维度\n数据湖\n数据仓库\n\n\n\n\n方法论\n事后建模（schema-on-read）\n事前建模（schema-on-write）\n\n\n存储类型\n结构化/半结构化/非结构化（文件）\n结构化/半结构化（表）\n\n\n计算引擎\n向所有引擎开放，各引擎有限优化\n向特定引擎开放，易获得高度优化\n\n\n成本\n易启动，难运维管理\n难启动，易运维管理\n\n\n数据治理\n质量低，难管理使用\n质量高，易管理使用\n\n\n\n随着数据量的增长，运维管理会越来越困难，所以有很多数据湖最终有可能变成数据沼泽（比如，大家也不知道这个数据属于谁，谁被谁来用，能不能删掉，该怎么治理），这是数据湖面临的一个问题。\n大多数数据仓库建立之初要有一个有关整体数据建模的顶层设计，所以数据仓库的启动成本很高。但这种很好的顶层设计，会使数据仓库日后扩展时的运维和管理成本变得更低，长线成本优势变得非常明显。（但数仓在面对AI这种非结构化数据存在很大挑战，它几乎不支持音视图类型的数据，而数据湖可存储所有类型，更灵活更有优势）\n融合流派（Data Lakehouse）\n数据复杂性与管理挑战\n51%的受访者报告他们有 20 到 100 个或更多的数据源，显示了数据整合和管理的复杂性。\n湖仓架构通过减少数据移动和数据副本，提高了查询速度并降低了成本，大型企业预计能节省成本 75%以上，56%的受访者也觉得他们能节省 50%以上的分析成本。\n体系融合\n这两个体系可以说是硬币的两面，很多厂商开始考虑怎么在数据湖上应用更多数据仓库技术，反过来数据仓库厂商也希望用数据湖技术使自己更开放，这两个技术在相互学习和融合，也就造出一个新名词—湖仓一体。\n\n一种将数据湖的灵活性和数据仓库的结构化查询能力相结合的架构，支持各种数据类型的高效存储和分析\n\n\n有两个流派，双方都在发展中：\n\n「仓外挂湖」左边一个数据仓库，右边一个数据湖，中间以高速网络相连形成联动，这种流派的代表是AWS的Redshift。\n另一个流派是数据湖向数据仓库演进「湖上建仓」，整体架构师在数据湖上搭建数据仓库，阿里云的Maxcompute，Databricks是代表\n\n总结 vs 预测\n大数据平台的发展在很长一段时间几乎都是以分析（BI）为轴，主流接口是SQL，侧重结构化的数据和二维关系表达的运算模式，以历史数据为主，在之上做统计和分析。\n非结构化的数据处理过去一直是瓶颈，但10年前的深度学习技术突破了这一瓶颈，在过去5年中，算法类负载在数据中心里从一个很低的比例增长到10~30%，正式成为数据平台的一等公民。\n说数据分析和BI侧重于历史数据总结，算法和AI具备越来越好的面向未来做预测的能力，该说法有合理性。\nOLAP 查询引擎\n古早实时数据探索系统的问题\n第一代的实时数据探索通常是 Spark+Redis+Hbase 的方案，存在下述问题\n\n流量高峰期处理延迟\n纬度交叉分析不灵活\n消耗资源大，碰到系统故障时，重算慢\n\n在大内存情况下很容易崩溃，哪天一个硬件故障，一天的数据可能要重算，算一天需要十几个小时。\n新质生产力对比\n在传统的数据仓库架构中，ETL 是在数据仓库之外，OLAP 在数据仓库之内的，Hadoop 体系引入数据仓库领域后，大大提升了数据 ETL 处理的能力，集群的扩展能力，数据存储的稳定性，但是牺牲了数据的查询能力。\n\n\nKylin，Presto，Impala，Druid 都是为了解决 OLAP 查询而设计的，但这些基于 HDFS 设计的 OLAP 引擎只是加速了查询速度，未能达到令人惊艳的速度，ClickHouse 和 Doris 在速度方面更胜一筹。\n\n\nPresto，Impala，Greenplum 在支持的 SQL 计算上更为通用，更适合 Ad Hoc 场景，然而这些通用系统往往比专用系统更难做性能优化，所以不太适合做 $QPS &gt; 1000$ &amp; $Latency &lt; 500ms$的在线服务，更适合做公司内部的查询服务和加速 Hive 查询的服务。\n\n\nTiDB 是一套 OLTP+OLAP 的数据库，但作为非独立 OLAP，分析处理能力并不理想，性能在不同场景下表现参差不齐。\n\n\n当时间回到 2017 年，市场上找开源 OLAP工具就像在非洲大草原上找树一样，寥寥无几，可能只有 Druid 或 Kylin，Kylin的最佳存储引擎为 HBase，预计算查询效率出色，但预计算带来的维度爆炸会给存储带来一定压力（有 N 个维度，就会有 2N 种组合，所以最好控制好维度的数量）。Druid 也有缺点，对 Join 支持弱，组件众多需大量安装维护工作，侵入 Hadoop 的 Jar 依赖，精确去重较慢。\n细说说一众引擎\nPresto（适合秒级查询），Impala，Druid，Kylin（专注预计算，最初由 eBay 开发并开源贡献)，Doris 和 Clickhouse（实时数据更新和高吞吐写入，但多表Join查询支持性能不好，并发较低），GreenPlum有较好的生态，但作为老将应对超大规模数据已显颓势。\nPresto\nPresto 是 MPP+SQL on Hadoo，它的设计和编写完全是为了解决像 Meta 这样规模的商业数据仓库的交互式分析和处理速度问题，它不是一个数据库，是一个运行在多台服务器上的分布式系统，命令行把 CLI 提交给 Coordinator 解析，分发处理队列到 Worker，将多个数据源进行合并，跨越整个组织进行分析，主要用来处理响应时间小于 1 秒到几分钟的场景。并没有使用 MapReduce，而是通过一个定制的查询和执行引擎来完成，所有的查询处理在内存中，所以性能较 Hive 快很多，但多张大表关联操作时易引起内存溢出错误。\n实际体验结果：查询延迟一般，因为它是从明细层开始查询，没有任何预聚合\nImpala\nImpala 是 Cloudera 受到 Google Dremel 启发主导开发的 Hive 的升级品，不同于 Hive 的原始 MapDeduce 过程，提供访问 Hadoop 文件系统中数据的最快方法，但不能读取自定义二进制文件，仅限于文本文件。\nImpala使用 Hive 的元数据，完全在内存中进行计算，是 CDH 平台当时首选的PB 级大数据实时查询分析引擎。通常搭配存储引擎 Kudu 一起提供服务，最大优势是点查比较快，且支持数据的 update 和 Delete。\nClickHouse\nClickHouse由俄罗斯yandex公司开发。专为在线数据分析而设计。Yandex是俄罗斯搜索引擎公司，日处理记录数”十亿级”。其从 OLAP 场景需求出发，定制一套全新高效列式存储引擎，实现了数据有序存储、主键索引、稀疏索引、数据 Sharding、数据 Partitioning、TTL、主备复制等丰富功能，用C++实现，具备向量化执行，剪枝等优化能力，具备强劲的查询性能。不依赖 Hadoop 体系（HDFS+YARN），比较擅长的地方是对大数据量单表进行聚合查询，比较适合内部 BI 报表型应用，可提供 ms 级别的响应速度。\n\n今日头条内部用 Clickhouse 做用户行为分析，内部一共几千个ClickHouse节点，单集群最大 1200 节点，总数据量几十 PB，日增原始数据 300TB 左右\n腾讯也用ClickHouse做游戏数据分析，并建立一整套监控运维体系\n携程内部从 18 年 7 月开始试用，现24 年每天数据增量十多亿，近百万次查询请求\n快手内部也在使用，存储总量大约 10PB，每天新增 200TB，90%查询小于3秒\n\nClickHouse 作为目前所有开源MPP计算框架中计算速度最快的，它在做多列的表，同时行数很多的表的查询时，性能是很让人兴奋的，但是在做多表的join时，它的性能是不如单宽表查询的。性能测试结果表明ClickHouse在单表查询方面表现出很大的性能优势，但是在多表查询中性能却比较差，不如Presto、Impala、HAWQ的效果好。\n单表查询性能对比 Presto，Impala包括 Doris，确实要高很多。但 Clickhouse 没有高速低延迟的更新和删除方法，行级别的更新删除方法一般都是异步进行。\nGreenplum\nGreenPlum在基于PostgreSQL9.4开发，采用 MPP架构的关系型分布式数据库。其SQL支持，特性，配置选项和最终用户功能在大部分情况下和PostgreSQL非常相似。相比较，GreePlum可以使用追加优化（append-optimized）的存储格式来批量转载和读取数据，且能提供HEAP表上的性能优势。追加优化的存储为数据保护，压缩和行/列方向提提供了校验和。行式和列式追加优化的表都可以被压缩。 Greenplum的interconnect（网络层）允许在不同的PostgreSQL实例之间通讯，让系统表现为一个逻辑数据库。也包括为针对商业智能（BI）负载优化PostgreSQL而设计的特性。\n提取下GreePlum和 PG 的主要区别：\n\n在基于Postgres查询规划器的常规查询规划器之外，可以利用GPORCA进行查询规划\n可以使用追加优化的存储\n可选用列式存储，只能和追加优化表一起使用。在所有使用列式存储的追加优化表上都提供了压缩\n\n优势\n有完善的生态系统，可以与很多企业级产品集成，譬如SAS，Cognos，Informatic，Tableau等；也可以很多种开源软件集成，譬如Pentaho,Talend 等。从应用编程接口上讲，它支持ODBC和JDBC。完善的标准支持使得系统开发、维护和管理都大为方便。支持分布式事务，支持ACID。保证数据的强一致性。\n作为关系型数据库产品，它的特点主要就是查询速度快，数据装载速度快，批量DML处理快。而且性能可以随着硬件的添加，呈线性增加，拥有非常良好的可扩展性。因此，它主要适用于面向分析的应用。比如构建企业级ODS/EDW，或者数据集市等\n劣势\nGreenplum无法对实时数据进行增量聚合计算，难支持实时数据分析，数据扩容时需进行数据重分布，需人工操作且工作量大，影响线上服务。前端采用 cognos query studio 作为自由拖拽，实现灵活查询和效率之间的一个相互平衡和制约，查询效率不会太高，业务更关心的是能出数而不是效率本身。\n但在这个年代选择多了，Greenplum 已经不流行了，但在大数据体系成熟之前，在 10 年之前，还是有很多公司引入其做基础数据仓库，不乏银行金融机构，淘宝，支付宝等。\nDruid\nDruid由 MetaMarkets（一家广告数据分析平台公司） 开发并于 2015 年开源，创建的最初意图是为了解决查询延迟问题，毕竟使用 Hadoop 来实现交互式实时查询分析很难，Druid 在这方面提供了以交互式访问数据的能力，并权衡了查询的灵活性而采取了特殊的存储格式。它的核心架构吸收结合了数仓，时序数据库及检索系统的优势。\n其功能介于 PowerDrill 和 Dremel 之间，几乎实现了 Dremel 的全部功能，且从 PowerDrill 吸收了一些有趣的数据格式，在二者基础上增加了一些新特性，如为局部嵌套数据结构提供列式存储格式，实时摄取[收录事件]和查询（事件创建后毫秒/秒内查到），高容错的分布式体系架构等，每天能处理数十亿事件和 TB 级数据。其应用最广的是广告分析（点击流分析），广告监控及网络监控等，最适合应用于面向事件类型的数据，数据插入频率较高，但较少更新数据。\n多数查询场景为聚合查询和 groupby分组查询，数据具有时间属性（Druid 对时间做了优化设计），需要对高基维度数据列（URL，用户 ID等）进行快速计数和排序，需要从 Kafka，HDFS，对象存储中加载数据。无论何种查询，历史节点都会先将相关 Segment 数据文件从磁盘加载到内存，然后再提供查询服务，历史节点的查询效率受内存空间影响很大，内存越大，需从磁盘加载数据的次数就越少，查询速度就越快。\n目前 Druid 在实际应用中遇到的最大问题是缺少支持精确的基数计算的数据结构。Druid 的架构组件比较复杂（协调器，历史节点，实时节点），部署和运维成本较高。对 SQL 的支持不够全面，某些复杂查询可能要自定义实现。\n\nDruid 有三个外部依赖：Mysql 存储各种 metadata，存储 Segment 的载体（本地磁盘，NFS，HDFS，S3 均可），Zookeeper 管理当前 cluster 的状态，如哪些 Segment 由Real-time node 移到了Historical nodes。\n\n不适合的场景\n如果你需要对现有数据进行低延迟的更新操作，就不太合适用 Druid 了，它支持流式插入（流数据摄入后会以 Index 形式保存在内存中，定期将 Index 序列化成 Segment 文件持久化到可靠存储中-如 HDFS），但不支持流式更新（更新通过后台批处理作业完成）。批数据摄入则会直接生成 Segment 存储，供服务加载使用。\n其查询并发有限，不适合 OLTP 查询，不支持 join 使得只适合处理星型模型的数据，实时数据要能容忍丢失数据。\nOLAP 的实现模式\n作为一个 OLAP 数据库，需要支持类似上卷，切块，切片，下钻等操作，但不适合明细查询（根据某主键 id 定位唯一数据的任务），常见的 OLAP 数据库实现方式有以下几种：\n\n数据检索引擎，如 ES。可存储结构化/非结构化数据，同时具备明细查询和聚合查询能力，但其索引类型并不是针对聚合分析设计的，所以聚合查询方面开销较大，其次，ES 不但要保存所有原始数据，还需要生成较多索引，所以存储空间开销会更大，数据写入效率较 Druid 会差一些。相比较，Druid 只能处理结构化数据（预定义 Schema），由于进行预聚合，所以 Druid 抛弃了原始数据，导致其缺少原始明细查询能力，若关闭预聚合，又会丧失 Druid 的优势。\n预计算+KV 存储实现，如 Kylin。缺点是需在预处理中处理预设的聚合逻辑，故损失了查询灵活性，且面临数据过于膨胀的情况。\nSQL on Hadoop 引擎：如 Presto，SparkSQL\n\n能力对比\n\n\n\n\nKylin\nES\nSparkSQL\nDruid\nPresto\nImpala\n\n\n\n\n离线查询\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\n\n\n实时查询\nN\nY\nN\nY\nN\nN\n\n\n丰富的 SQL\nY\nN\nY\nY\nY\nY\n\n\n百亿数据集\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\nY\n\n\n聚合亚秒级响应\nY\nN\nN\nY\nN\nN\n\n\n精准去重\nY\nN\nY\nN\nY\nY\n\n\n表关联\nY（弱）\nN\nY\nN\nY\nY\n\n\n\n\n相较于 Kylin，Druid 没有模型管理和 cube 管理能力，Kylin 无法提供实时查询\n相较 ES，Druid 优势在于聚合计算，ES 优势在于查询明细\n\n性能特性比较\n简单查询\n在简单查询场景（命中索引或物化视图-预聚合数据），这样的查询通常出现在「在线数据服务」的企业应用，并发查询量大，对响应时间要求一般是 ms 级别，最合适的是 ES，doris，druid，kylin 这些\n\n\ndruid、kylin的 QPS &lt;1000\nClickhouse的 QPS &lt; 100\nElasticSearch QPS &gt; 1000\n在亚秒级别响应的只有 es，druid，kylin，clickhouse。Hive 在落在分钟小时级，其它在秒级。\n\n\nquadrantChart\n\ttitle 简单查询吞吐能力\n\tx-axis \"毫秒\" --> \"分钟小时\"\n\ty-axis \"几十\" --> \"几千\"\n\tquadrant-1 \"高QPS高时延\"\n\tquadrant-2 \"高QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-3 \"低QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-4 \"低QPS高时延\"\n  Druid:[0.3,0.6]\n  Kylin:[0.3,0.55]\n  ElasticSearch:[0.2,0.85]\n  Clickhouse:[0.32,0.2]\n  Impala+kudu:[0.42,0.57]\n  Presto:[0.42,0.52]\n  FlinkSQL:[0.45,0.32]\n  SparkSQL:[0.45,0.21]\n  Hive:[0.75,0.3]\n复杂查询\n复杂查询场景，指复杂聚合查询，大批量数据 scan，在 ad-hoc 场景中，往往用户不能预先知道要查什么，更多是探索式的。\nquadrantChart\n\ttitle 复杂查询吞吐能力\n\tx-axis \"毫秒\" --> \"分钟小时\"\n\ty-axis \"几十\" --> \"几千\"\n\tquadrant-1 \"高QPS高时延\"\n\tquadrant-2 \"高QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-3 \"低QPS低时延\"\n\tquadrant-4 \"低QPS高时延\"\n  Druid:[0.65,0.30]\n  Kylin:[0.65,0.25]\n  ElasticSearch:[0.65,0.35]\n  Clickhouse:[0.48,0.2]\n  Impala+kudu:[0.42,0.57]\n  Presto:[0.42,0.52]\n  FlinkSQL:[0.75,0.19]\n  SparkSQL:[0.75,0.14]\n  Hive:[0.9,0.21]\nES 出列单看\nES，Druid，Kylin 都是单轮的 MapReduce，中间结果结果存储在内存中，通过网络直接交换，而不是像典型的 多轮MR 每次 shuffle 要先落盘。\n用 ES 做 OLAP 引擎，有几项优势：\n\n查询模式简单的场景高 QPS，低延迟，过滤条件多。ES 底层依赖 Lucene文件格式，可把 Lucene 理解为一种行列混存的模式，在查询时通过 FST，跳表加快数据查询。\n\n但单轮的 MR模式（单节点汇聚）若 Reduce 数据量较大（数据量较大或进行扫描聚合类查询时），由于 ES 是单节点执行，可能会非常慢。\n\n\n集群自动化管理能力非常强（shard allocation，recovery），集群，索引管理和查看 API 非常丰富。\n\n多记一嘴 Druid\n很多数据仓库产品都是以『批处理』为基础，这导致记录指标时的时间与进行分析时的时间间出现延迟。\n\n\n指标是衡量事物发展程度的单位和方法，通常需要经过加和、平均等聚合统计才能得到。如 PV，UV，页面停留时长，用户获取成本\n\n\n维度是事务现象的某种特征，如性别、地区，时间，版本，操作系统都是维度。Druid 只会预计算最细粒度的维度和时间结果，减少维度爆炸问题，是一种比较平衡的方式。\n\n\nDruid 之所以能在 OLAP 家族中占一席之地，除了依赖 MPP 架构外，还运用了四点重要的技术\n\n预聚合：减少数据存储于避免查询时不必要的计算\n列式存储\n字典编码：有效提升数据压缩率\n位图索引：让很多查询转化成计算机层面的位计算，提升效率\n\n存储层是 Druid 的核心组件，用于存储和管理数据，其用列式存储格式来优化查询性能和压缩数据大小，存储层由多个数据分片组成，每个分片都包含了特定时间范围内的数据，数据分片可水平扩展和复制，以实现高可用性和高吞吐量。\n使用 Druid 过程中，维度不要太多，维度数据导入将十分耗时。磁盘适用固态盘，这样你的查询速度才稳定的快。\n时序数据库特性\nDruid 是针对时间序列数据提供的低延时数据写入及快速交互式查询的分布式 OLAP 数据库。时间列是 Druid 数据模型的核心组成部分，它允许数据按时间进行排序，分割和分片存储，以支持高效的数据查询，且可将数据按固定时间间隔（小时，天，周）划分为不同的桶，每个桶存储一个时间段内的数据。其与典型的InfluxDB、OpenTSDB部分特性类似，这些时序数据库具备一些共同特点\n\n一是通过内存增量所有让数据写入即可查\n二是下采样或 RDD操作减少数据量，Druid 在数据写入时就会对数据预聚合，进而减少原始数据量。\n三是可能会支持 SchemaLess，InfluxDB中，用户可任意加 tag，InfluxDB 可对新增 tag 进行聚合查询，但 Druid 在这点上跟 InfluxDB 略有差异，Druid 需预定义 Schema，Schema 数据打包在最后形成的数据文件中，也就是说过去和未来数据的 Schema 可以不同，不同 Schema 的数据可共存，固然 Druid 不是 Schemaless 的，但调整也是比较灵活的\n\n在时序数据上，ES 也有类似功能，提供了全文检索的模式，并提供访问原始事件级数据，也提供了分析和汇总支持，但根据研究，ES 在数据获取和聚集上资源消耗比在 Druid 高，Druid 侧重于 OLAP 工作流程，以较低的成本设计了聚集和获取的高性能方案（亿级百列数据查询时间是 mysql cluster 的1/100~1/10），提供了结构化事件数据的一些基本的搜索支持，更偏重于数据汇总分析。\n为了性能，你开启了预聚合 rollup，这会带来信息量的丢失，因为 roll-up 的粒度会变成最小的数据可视化粒度。如果以分钟粒度进行 roll-up，那么入库后能查看的数据最小粒度即为分钟级别。\nSegment设计\nSegment 是 Druid 的一个关键抽象，是一种不可变（但有版本控制）数据结构。Druid 可看作是 Lambda 的第一个实现。\nSegment 的不可修改性简化了 Druid 的实现，但若你有修改数据的需求，重创建 Segment的 Bitmap indexing 过程是比较耗时的。其能接受的数据结构相对简单，不能处理嵌套结构的数据。\nDruid 用 Lambda 架构分别处理实时数据和批量数据。数据存储在 Datasource 中，类似 RDBMS 中的 Table，每个 Datasource 中按时间划分，每个时间范围称为一个 Chunk（一般一天一个 Chunk），在一个 Chunk 中数据根据维度的Hash 或范围分成一个或多个Segment，每个 Segment 都是一个单独文件，通常含几百万行数据，这些Segment 是按时间组织的，所以在按时间查询时，效率非常高。\n\n实际上，Datasource 和 Chunk 都是抽象的，Druid 底层存储就是 Segment，一个 Segment 生成后就无法被修改，只能通过生成一个新 Segment 来替代旧的。Segment 的命名规则可帮助快速找到需要查的 Segment 文件。不同列的数据都单独保存一个文件的话，会产生很多小文件，严重影响文件系统读写性能，因此每个字段数据生成好后，会以二进制拼接的方式合成一个文件以提升性能，在逻辑上，不同列的数据存储是分开的。\n\n在数据摄取准备时，要敲定查询的最小粒度，如 hour，查询最小粒度要&lt;= Segment 分块文件粒度\nDruid 使用 Segment 时会以多级缓存的方式使用，除了可靠存储，还会在内存中及服务器硬盘上加载 Segment 作为缓存。开启预聚合（rollup）特性的 Segment内部也会不一样，可大幅减少数据存储量，提升查询效率，关闭 rollup 则 Segment 中会保留写入的原始数据。\n让 Druid 在繁重的查询压力下保持良好的操作性能，应让 segment 文件大小在 300mb 至 700mb 之间。其在设计之初，为了追求亚秒级的 OLAP 能力，对精准去重计算，不支持，只提供近似查询。在实时要求程度不高的情况下，可通过时间换空间的方式，对需要计算的字段做 group by 查询，然后 count(1)实现精确去重，\n行数据结构剖析\nDruid 中每一行包含 3 部分：时间戳，维度和指标。\n\n时间戳就是该条数据产生或保存的时间，主要作用有划分 Segment，按照某种时间粒度预聚合数据等。\n指标就是一些整数或浮点数值，也可能是复杂数据结构如 HyperUnique，用来在查询时聚合得到结果。\n维度相对复杂点，因为在查询时要支持 filter，group by 操作，每列维度值会保存 3 个数据结构来记录（如10 行数据，某列数值取值如下)\n\n$$\n\\begin{bmatrix}\nA\\\nA\\\nB \\\nC \\\nB \\\nC \\\nD \\\nC \\\nD \\\nD \\\n\\end{bmatrix}\n$$\n\n取值字典：每个值映射为一个 ID，可理解为独热编码表\n\n&quot;A&quot;:0&quot;B&quot;:1&quot;C&quot;:2&quot;D&quot;:3\n\n10 行/每一行取值的 ID：行数据的独热编码表示。用于支持 group by 和 TopN 查询。\n\n[0,0,1,2,1,2,3,2,3,3]\n\n每个取值对应的 Bitmap（对 AND 和 OR 操作速度非常快），在 Segment 存储中会以 concise/roaring 方式压缩。独热码表值在此列的位置分布。\n\n0:[1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]1:[0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0]2:[0,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0]3:[0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,1]\n位图索引再举例\n举一个更直观的例子，如下表数据\n\n\n\n时间戳\n维度列\n\n指标列\n\n\n\n\ndt\nloc\nitem\namount\n\n\n2022-01-01\n北京\n书\n100\n\n\n2022-01-01\n北京\n电脑\n200\n\n\n2022-01-01\n上海\n电脑\n300\n\n\n2022-01-01\n广州\n手机\n400\n\n\n2022-01-01\n杭州\n水果\n500\n\n\n2022-01-01\n北京\n书\n600\n\n\n\nDruid 将如上数据结构构建位图索引，来实现快速查找\n\n\n\n原始值\n列值编码\nBit\nm\na\np\n位\n图\n\n\n\n\n北京\n0\n1\n1\n0\n0\n0\n1\n\n\n上海\n1\n0\n0\n1\n0\n0\n0\n\n\n广州\n2\n0\n0\n0\n1\n\n0\n\n\n杭州\n3\n0\n0\n0\n0\n1\n0\n\n\n书籍\n4\n1\n0\n0\n0\n0\n1\n\n\n电脑\n5\n0\n1\n1\n0\n0\n0\n\n\n手机\n6\n0\n0\n0\n1\n0\n0\n\n\n水果\n7\n0\n0\n0\n0\n1\n0\n\n\n\nselect sum(amount) as totalamout from table where loc=&quot;北京&quot; and &quot;item&quot;=&quot;电脑&quot;\n那么根据位图，查询条件就是（110001）&amp; （011000）= (010000)所标 1的行，也就是第 2 行。\n设计讨论\nDruid vs Impala\nDruid 和 Impala 的比较基本可归结为需要设计什么样的系统。\n\n\nDruid 被设计为一直在线的服务（所以其容灾，扩容再平衡都做得很完备, 各种nodes挂掉都不会使得 Druid 停止工作，但状态会无法更新），可获取实时数据。在查询速度方面，Druid 是列存储方式，数据经过压缩加入到索引结构中，&quot;压缩&quot;增加了 RAM 中数据存储能力，能使 RAM 适应更多的数据快速存储。支持时间序列和 group by 样式的查询，但不支持 join。\n\n\nImpala 可认为是 HDFS 之上的后台程序缓存层。Impala 基于 HDFS 或其它后备存储，限制了数据获取的速度。支持 SQL 样式的查询。\n\n\nDruid vs Kylin\nDruid 是 OLAP 计算+存储二者一肩挑设计，Kylin 是一个离线预处理框架，依赖 Spark 和 YARN 做计算，然后用 Hbase 保存预处理结果，而后进行展示。它们二者都对 HDFS 有依赖，Druid 只把 HDFS 当做远程离线存储，但实际计算过程并不使用。而 Kylin使用的是 Hadoop 技术栈，中间计算过程和最后计算结果里面都会用到 HDFS。\nDruid 有灵活的预聚合能力，可利用 HyperLogLog 算法做多维的 UV 聚合，而 Kylin 则是使用强大的位图计算，做了精确的 UV 计算能力。\n新的Topic与期待\n全频谱可平衡支持\n新一代数据平台系统需要形成一个从离线到实时的全频谱计算能力，在\n\nData Freshness\nResource Costs\nQuery Performance\n\n的不可能三角里给用户提供多种不同平衡的选择。面向未来的系统，应能做到一套系统一套资源，针对上述三个方向的不同平衡点，为用户提供多种选项，实现从离线到实时的全频谱。\n数据网格\nData Mesh 是一种数据管理方法，强调数据的分布式架构和以业务领域为中心的数据所有权和治理权，促进数据的可访问性和质量。从侧面也反映了以中央IT团队来管理数据搞不好。\n\n数据量过大或中央数据管理人员对数据不够了解，那么数据湖可能无法确保数据质量。数据网格架构的基础理念是将数据视作有价值的产品，那么数据的质量和完整性就成为数据管理的重点。\n将企业内特定数据集的所有权和职责，分散至具备专业知识的用户（能深入了解并充分利用这些数据），同时通过标准化和自动化来保证整体的一致性和互操作性，发挥数据的价值。\n另外数据湖的集中式架构，数据检索流程和程序一直较复杂，很容易出现瓶颈，大量整合数据的管控工作全压到了一个 IT 团队肩上，随着这些数据量和数据检索需求的增加，这些IT 团队会不堪重负，合规任务也可能会被仓促了事，引入潜在的风险和损失。\n\nstateDiagram-v2\n\t\tstate1:面向领域的所有权\n\t\tstate2:数据即产品\n\t\tstate3:自助式数据平台\n\t\tstate4:联邦计算治理\n    state1 --> state2:防止数据孤岛\n    state1 --> state3:赋能领域团队\n    state1 --> state4:增加参与度，减少领域孤立\n    state2 --> state3:降低所有权成本\n    state2 --> state4:通过互连数据产品获得更高阶价值\n    state4 --> state3:网格级别一致可靠的策略执行\n    note left of state2 : 产品思维应用于数据管理：可发现、可理解、可信赖\n    note left of state3\n    支持去中心化数据管理\n    简化数据产品创建和使用过程\n    end note\n    note right of state4\n    通过自动化和计算实现政策执行\n    平衡域自主性和全局互操作性\n    end note\n数据安全\n数据本身已经成为一种资产，有非常好的资产变现和产生额外价值的能力和需求。同时，数据很可能涉及隐私泄露，这就形成了有关数据安全，隐私保护和数据共享的矛盾。在隐私和安全的情况下做到更好的数据共享和变现成了新热点。\n数据安全不仅仅是一个权限问题，还涉及很复杂的系统架构，包括权限管理，用户隔离，存储加密，异地备份，敏感数据/风险行为的识别。\n安全共享这个方向包括两个核心场景：一方数据对外共享，多方数据共同计算。第二点是多方的数据交叉计算或者叫联邦计算。这里面包含两项核心技术，一个是基于隐私计算的数据交互，一个是基于联邦学习的数据交互。不论是一方域内多租的安全模式，还是跨域多方的安全共享模式，目前都是领域热点。\nIOT 时代的不同\n目前的大数据系统处理的数据主要是人的行为日志，如浏览记录，手机上对App的点击操作等，都会以日志形式传到系统中，反馈给推荐系统，广告系统。\n后续接入网络的硬件设备的数据慢慢会超过人的数量，IOT数据处理也会成为一个热点。但大多数时候设备数据并没有太多意义和价值，只有出问题的时候数据才会产生波动，这种情况下如何有效收集设备产生的数据，海量数据无法全量上云，需要在端侧做一定处理，就成了新的需求，也就是端云协同，是IOT的特点，不过也实在没什么新鲜，没有技术难度。\nDW Automation\n\n国内最大的互联网公司，内部数据量均在EB级别，作业量每天百万级别以上。\n主流客户其实都在PB级的数据规模，有些在百PB级别。\n\n面对这么大的数据规模，传统DBA以人为轴来开展数据管理和优化的方式不再胜任。这种复杂的数据组织和优化需更多的基于AI的自动化技术来完成。如通过机器学习自动进行数据分层，依据访问的统计判断什么样的数据更重要，那些作业可放在冷存储上。\n几朵乌云\n\n计算引擎的多样化，最终能否诞生一套onesize4all的引擎满足多样的计算需求，兼顾通用性和效率\n\n\n现在大家几乎还是通过拼接不同引擎来搭建自己的计算平台，如Spark做批处理，Flink做流处理，Clickhouse做交互分析，再复杂点，可能还要部署Hbase做KV查询，用ES做文本检索。虽每个单独产品已比较成熟，但整个系统复杂度非常高，这里面就蕴含着标题的期待。\n\n\n基于开源自建还是选购企业级产品\n\n\n开源软件免费，但需要独立的团队去支撑这一大数据平台的部署和运维，带来相对较高的维护成本（一个简答的公式是：对于百台规模的平台，基于开源软件自建的总TCO=物理硬件成本+开发维护人力成本=物理硬件成本*2）。\n头部的技术公司，规模较大，人力边际成本低。非头部企业直接购买SAAS化企业级平台，综合成本更低，享受更好的性能，安全性，稳定性和兜底能力。当然另一面就是技术黑盒和高改造成本（需平台厂商来做）的问题。\nSnowflake开箱即用全托管平台大受欢迎，Databricks以开源生态为主线也形成广泛客户群体。组装还是直接买笔记本，答案在客户手中。\n\n\n关系模型外，是否会发展处其它主流计算范式\n\n\n数据库数仓已发展40+年，主流计算范式就是二维关系表达，近10年，深度学习带来新的计算方式，有没有更新一代会产生？\n图计算当前最被看好（点边模型）。但数据库技术发展过程中也诞生了图计算模式，且发展多年，但目前仍不是主流，但随着图学习(graphembedding)的兴起，是否会焕发新生，值得期待。\n\nOther\n大家都说软件工程师，软件产业，但需要从 Code/Program观念转变成 Data 观念，在做任何设计和开发时，要把 Data 放在第一位，这样才是 Information Technology 行业。\n海量数据一直在增长，但我们应想办法控制下来，未来的趋势要考虑缩小海量数据，而不是任凭它扩张。\n太多初创企业陷入错误的逻辑：大数据=非结构化数据=hadoop，非结构化和半结构化数据的利用是呈现了爆炸式增长，但也要注意到，结构化数据的使用上，也出现了指数式增长。\n搞起来了，自有人会来光顾。这是错误的观念，想用大数据创业，业务专长必须有，同时技术也必须保证是尖端的，这些都是普通商户所缺乏的，如何帮助非技术型用户在其日常工作中轻松使用数据才是问题的关键。\n参考\n1.Segmentfault 简单认识 KMV Sketch 估算算法 ↩2.CSDN 开源 OLAP 技术架构对比 ↩3.51CTO 数据湖三剑客对比 ↩4.腾讯云 Druid Segment存储格式 ↩5.腾讯云 解读数据架构的2021 ↩6.腾讯云 基于 Iceberg 扩展 Doris 数据湖能力的实践 ↩7.搜狐 主流开源OLAP系统的分类及核心技术点 ↩8.搜狐 主流开源OLAP引擎大比拼 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"数据倾斜浅述","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%80%BE%E6%96%9C%E6%B5%85%E8%BF%B0.html","content":"\n数据倾斜\n数据倾斜即指在大数据计算任务中某个处理任务的进程（通常是一个JVM进程）被分配到的任务量过多，进程运行时间超长甚至最终失败，进而导致整个计算任务超长时间运行或失败的问题。\n\n外部表现的话，在MR任务（如跑HiveSQL）里看到map或reduce的进度一直是99%持续数小时没有变化；\n在SparkSQL任务重则是某个stage里，正在运行的任务数量长时间是1或者2不变。\n\n简而言之，如果任务进度信息一直在输出，但内容长时间没有任何变化的时候，大概率是出现数据倾斜了。\n\n\n有个特例需要注意，有时大家会看到SparkSQL的任务信息也显示有1到2个任务在运行中，但进度信息不再刷新而表现为假死很久的时候，这通常是进行最后阶段的文件操作，并不是数据倾斜（这通常意味着小文件问题严重）\n\n类型分类\n读倾斜\n在读取数据阶段长期无法完成，这通常是因为文件分块过大或分块数据有异常，这种情况出现频率较小。\n算倾斜\n即在某个需要排序（如开窗函数或非广播关联时）或者聚合操作时候，同一个key（通常是一个或者多个字段或者表达式的组合）的处理耗时过长。这通常是最多的情况，情况也较为复杂。\n大数据中动辄上亿行的数据，如果有排序（order by或sort by）的需求且数据量巨大的话，通常会产生溢写磁盘的操作，非常耗时，且容易造成OOM异常。99.99%的大数据场景下，完全的排序都是不必要的，因为业务通常需要的统计信息而非具体某一条记录的细节信息。\n写倾斜\n即某个操作需要输出大量数据，如超过几亿或者几十亿行。主要出现在关联后数据膨胀或某些只能由一个task来操作（如limit）的情况。\n表关联，举例两张表join可能产生数十亿行记录。问题本质是一个task最多由一个进程来执行，而相同的key也必须在同一个task中处理。因为在无法改变这个机制的前提下，我们只有想办法减少一个task输出的行数\n文件操作倾斜\n即数据生成在临时文件夹后，由于数量巨大，重命名或移动的操作非常耗时，这通常发生在动态分区导致小文件的情况。\n原因剖析与解决出发点\n为什么会有数据倾斜\n\n业务数据分布规律无法预知，比如系统无法不经过计算而提前知道某个表的某个字段的取值分布是否大致均匀\n计算结果数量无法预知。比如两表关联的结果对于某些key（关联一个字段或多个字段组合）的输出行数无法不经过计算而预知而针对性处理：又比如某个字段的值进行split操作或者explode等操作后产生的结果数量无法预知而进行针对性的应对\n某些操作只能由单一节点进行，一切需要维护一个全局状态的大多数操作，如排序、limit、count、distinct、全局聚合等，一般会安排到一个节点来执行，有概率导致在单节点上处理巨量的数据，造成所谓的倾斜问题。\n\n当然，这些困难并不是理论上不可避免的，随着时间的推移，越来越多的针对性优化措施已逐渐出现（如spark3已经能自动应对部分数据倾斜的情况了），也许在不久的将来业务同学不会再被倾斜问题烦恼，但现阶段还需数据开发工程师主动关注并应对。\n从业务逻辑审视出发\n如果发生了数据倾斜，有不小的概率是业务逻辑/需求不合理，需要跟业务方反复确认逻辑的合理性，优化业务逻辑一定要高过优化技术方案。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["大数据"]},{"title":"数据库schema概念差异","url":"/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93schema%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n涉及到数据库的模式有很多疑惑，问题经常出现在模式和数据库之间是否有区别，的确有区别，取决于数据库供应商，各家数据库系统倾向于以自己的方式处理模式(schema)这个概念。\n概念厂商差异\nMySQL\nMySQL文档指出：在概念上，模式是一组相互关联的数据库对象，如表，表列，列的数据类型，索引，外键等等；但在物理上，模式和数据库是同义的，所以schema和database是一回事，在MySQL中create schema和create database可以混用\n\nOracle\n\nA schema is a collection of logical structures of data, or schema objects. A schema is owned by a database user and has the same name as that user.Each user owns a single schema\n\nOracle的文档却指出，某些对象可存储在数据库中，但不能存储在schema中，因此二者不是一回事，schema是数据或模式对象的逻辑结构的集合，由数据库用户拥有，且与该用户具有相同的名称，也就是每个用户拥有一个独立的schema。Oracle的schema与数据库用户密切相关。\n在oracle中，create schema实际并不创建一个模式，因为在创建用户时，数据库用户就已经创建了一个模式，也就是说在oracle中create user就创建了一个schema。create schema语句允许你将schema同表和视图关联起来，并在这些对象上授权，从而不必在多个事务中发出多个SQL语句\nSQL Server\n\nThe names of tables,fields,data types and primary and foreign keys of a database\n\nSQL Server说schema是server内部一个独立的实体，和database不是一回事，包含了数据库的表，字段，数据类型以及主键和外键的名称。与MySQL不同，create schema创建了一个单独定义到数据库的模式，但自然也和oracle不同，在SQL Server中，一旦创建了模式，就可以往模式中添加用户和对象。\n差别清单\n\n\n\nDBMS\nDatabase/Schema\nImplicit schema\n\n\n\n\nJust schemas\n\n\n\n\nOracle\nServer =&gt; Schema = User\nN/A\n\n\nMySQL\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nMariaDB\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nTeradata\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nFirebird\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nInterbase\nServer =&gt; Database = Schema\nN/A\n\n\nSQLite\nFile = Database = Schema\nmain\n\n\nDatabases and schemas\n\n\n\n\nSQL Server\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\ndbo\n\n\nPostgreSQL\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nAzure SQL Database\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\ndbo\n\n\nIBM Db2\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\nN/A\n\n\nAmazon Redshift\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nSnowflake\nWarehouse =&gt; Database =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nSAP/Sybase ASE\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\ndbo\n\n\nSAP HANA\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\nN/A\n\n\nVertica\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\npublic\n\n\nIBM Informix\nDatabase =&gt; Schema\nN/A\n\n\n\n\n逻辑概念的命名空间\nschema的另一个含义是大多数关系型数据库引擎用于对对象分组的特定元素。\n可以把schema认为是一个命名空间(namespace)或容器(container)，其中包含有表、视图和函数等。\n数据库(database)的所有者就是schema的所有者\nschema的功效\n主要在以下的场景中将database拆分为多个schema(namespace):\n\n容易为整个schema来分配权限，可以基于用户访问权限应用安全权限来分隔和保护数据库对象\n为两个或多个不同的表(或其他对象)使用同一个name\n对相似的对象进行分组来降低复杂度，数据库对象的逻辑分组可以被数据库管理起来，schema可以将数据库对象组织成逻辑分组。\n同一个schema可以用在不同的数据库中\n可以很容易地对几个schema的ownership进行切换\n\n国内的信创数据库生态\n产业图谱\n\n\n征集+评选，填写“数据库产品与产业图谱调研表”，发送至liusiyuan@caict.ac.cn，邮件主题为“企业名称+数据库产品与产业图谱”。权当个信息黄页看吧，中国组织编纂的官方机构不少呢，且并不是NGO，你去参加IT技术峰会也能感知到。\n\n数据库溯源图谱\n\n经实证mermaid的mindmap效果离专业的脑图工具还有不小的差距\n\nmindmap\n  root[国产OLTP数据库谱系]\n    ((自研))\n      (Oracle兼容)\n        达梦DMB\n        浪潮K~DB\n        科蓝软件SunDB\n      (RocksDB分布式)\n        TiDB\n        OceanBase\n      (巨杉数据库SequoiaDB)\n    ((PostgreSQL))\n      (华为 Open Gauss)\n        海量 VastBase\n        人大金仓 KingBase\n        南大通用 Gbase 8c\n        神舟通用 神通V7\n        中国移动 磐维数据库\n        云和恩墨 MogDB\n        超图软件 Yukon禹贡\n        超聚安 FusionDB\n      (PGXC)\n        华为 GaussDB\n        腾讯 TBASE\n        亚信 AntDB\n      (PG社区版)\n        瀚高 ivorySQL\n        优炫 UXDB\n        阿里 PolarDB~PG\n        恒生电子 LightDB\n        浪潮 kaiwuDB\n        中国电信 TeleDB PG\n    ((MySQL))\n      阿里\n      \tRDS~MySQL\n      \tPolarDB~mysql\n      腾讯 TDSQL\n      万里开源 GreatSQL\n      中兴通讯 GoldenDB\n      热璞 HotDB\n      星环 KunDB\n      百度 GaiaDB\n      中国电信 TeleDB~mysql\n      石原子科技 StoneDB\n    ((Informix))\n      南大通用 Gbase 8s\n      星瑞格 SinoDB\n      华胜 xigemaDB\n开源社区精神在于众人拾柴火焰高，不过在数据库主版本一路迭代时，大多数企业并未安排数据库升级合并，另一些基于自身需求做的功能增强和社区主版越行越远（未积极融入社区讨论与回馈），最终变成主版本更新迭代很多代了，自己的核心还停留在上个世纪，这点上在PG社区尤为明显（国内基于PG的自研数据库，已经没办法再去merge最新的PG15的代码，如PolarDB for PG，和PG的差距越来越大，最终决定开源自己的Polar for PG版本）。\n用户使用数据库，必伴随着应用系统，中间件，操作系统，硬件平台等上下游产品，另一方面在整个数据库销售链条当中也涉及分销商，增值渠道商，独立软件开发商，系统集成商，数据库运维伙伴一系列的商业链条。从学术上来看，又要考虑高效合作（顶会期刊与成果转化），独立应用开发商合作，周边生态产品合作（管理工具，调优工具，报表工具，SQL工具）。\n用户选择视角\n对用户来讲，考察主要在如下几点：\n\n兼容性：是否兼容主流标准，主流开发工具和报表工具\n合作伙伴：是否有足够多的合作伙伴，已基于该产品进行了二次开发或加工，有多少解决方案\n案例多不多：踩着别人的脚印走，不容易踩到💩\n\n谱系说明\nOracle兼容\n主选手是武汉达梦，及浪潮K-DB数据库，产品功能和特性，基本复刻Oracle，如RAC这样的技术。\nMySQL兼容\n最为流行的数据库，簇拥衍生品肯定不缺。但一方面MySQL存在数据量上面的瓶颈，和Oracle的差异化概念设计也一定程度上制约它的迁移替代机会，给了PG库施展魅力的空间。\nPG兼容\n开源界除开Mysql，就是PostgreSQL备受喜爱，除开上面说的MySQL问题，另MySQL/MariaDB的GPL开源协议，不允许衍生品作为闭源软件发布和销售，只能卖服务，这使得国内厂商望而生畏，导致大量倒向BSD协议的PG，如巨杉数据库，腾讯TBase等。\nOpen Gauss体系\n源自PG9的变体，现在也作为一个独立的生态体系存在。自主可控了，国内有不少数据库转投open gauss阵营，如人大金仓，MogDB等。\nInformix兼容\n2005年，IBM对中国公司销售informix源代码，与IBM签订源代码授权的公司有华胜天成，南大通用和星瑞格，故成为引进Informix源代码发展国产数据库的代表\n自研分布式\n基于LSM树的数据库，因其优秀的写友好及高并发，也有非常优秀的产品。典型的就是TiDB和OceanBase，基于LSM-Tree，结合Paxos或Raft协议实现分布式高可用。\n另SequoiaDB巨杉数据库，是一款金融级分布式数据库，支持创建多种类型数据库实例MySQL，MariaDB，PostgreSQL，SparkSQL四种关系型数据库实例，JSON文档类数据实例，及S3对象存储的非结构化数据实例。\n参考\n1.What is a Database Schema? ↩2.What is Database Schema ↩3.国产数据库选型生态篇 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["数据库"]},{"title":"文学回忆录-上","url":"/%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95-%E4%B8%8A.html","content":"\n当我读完陈丹青牵头出版的木心讲课笔录–文学回忆录两册时，总体觉得体系化不好，毕竟木心用序言里的人的话说，木心老先生是位艺术家，他不是专职的文学评论家，但正因为其艺术家的特色，敢言，金句频出，我们暂不论金句是否经得起全面推敲，对于我这个文学白痴来说，这些内容已经受用良多，起到一定的观点体会，提纲挈领的作用，故从厚厚的书中摘录出这么上下两篇，我也对其内容进行归类重调整出现顺序，让自己有意回顾时能更加高效。\n也看过网上对于木心水平的争论，最早听到他的名字到是从中国好歌曲中的《从前慢》，故就埋下了一份好奇，价值敢言的陈丹青对其这位老师的推崇，不惧骂战，必要实际一窥，才有自我公正的看法。从文学阅读的品味和经典来说，这套书确实不是非常好（一部分也是也是我认为其观点有时是矛盾和随意的，且因受过迫害颇崇洋抑汉），但一本书其实有两三页有干货，已值回书价，对我这种文学瞎子，通过文字与不同时代的人产生交流，得知直接简短的观点，已受用很多，后续就是要扩大阅读，达到兼听则明，形成大而整的个人知识体系。\n文学的起源\n文学的起源：战歌，祷词，劳动号子。古人类最大的快乐是什么，唯物主义说劳动，唯心主义称始于性爱，可能最大的快乐是战争胜利后，打败敌人必有唱跳欢乐，久而久之，众声和谐者，易牢记，易传播，久而久之，诗出。劳动是苦的，做爱是静悄悄的，唯战争胜利是大规模的，开放的，故有声，声有歌，歌有诗。对神的崇拜是初民的精神生活，祈求必出声，高唱即祷词。\n\nAmazons在神话传说中也是吵架国，因为全是女人。\n中国的神话，太现实，神权，夫权，谁管谁，渗透神话，令人惧怕；希腊神话无为而治，自在自为。\n\n最早的文学，即记录人类的骚乱，不安，始出个人的文学，所有伟大的文艺，记录的都不是幸福，而是不安和骚乱。\n\n希腊神话传说\n克里特岛\n在克里特岛迷宫杀死牛头人身怪物的英雄忒修斯后来成为专制暴君，人民反，逼他退位，流放后被民推导海中死。在克里特岛的这则传说中，可以这样解读，牛象征欲望，迷宫（楼）象征社会，监囚人，包括婚姻，法律，契约。唯一的办法是飞，艺术家，天才，就是要飞。然而飞高（蜡沾的翅膀被日光融化），狂而死。青年艺术家不懂，但他的父亲是老艺术家，懂。飞出迷楼，靠艺术的翅膀。\n金羊毛\n另外金羊毛的故事为何闻名？原来史学家认为这是希腊第一次航海记录，商业远航，金羊毛，即东方的财富象征。\n艺术，哲学，宗教，都是人类的自恋，都在适当保持距离时，才有美的可能，真的可能，善的可能。如果你把宗教当做哲学对待，就有了距离，就能看清宗教究竟是什么，同理其它。如果讲宗教当做宗教来信，就迷惑了；将哲学做哲学来研究，就学究了；将艺术作艺术来玩弄，就玩世不恭了。\n希腊神话可以概称为“人的倒影”，妙在倒影比本体更大更强，整个人类文化就是自恋，动物对镜子不感兴趣，只有人感兴趣。早古人类的疑问，是自问自答，因无人回答，故神话以人类自问自答的方式流传，人格化，也是一种文学雏形，在早期是口传，好则留，坏则不留。近世，传播出版发达，却相反，坏的（流俗的）变得容易传播多了，降低了高雅的比例。\n早期历史上的哲学家从不写书，学生记下，宗教家更如此，由弟子传。\n史诗\n各民族有各自的童年，荷马史诗风格，迅速，直捷，明白，壮丽，读原文最明显。最伟大的诗人是瞎子，就像上帝让最伟大的的音乐家耳聋。\n\n\n《伊利亚特》-- 漫长的战争（一系列的战绩），阳刚\n\n\n《奥德赛》-- 漫长的奇迹（漫长而曲折的旅程），阴柔\n\n\n印度史诗二十万行，相当于荷马史诗的八倍，是世上最长的史诗。《摩柯婆罗多》出在印度之西，《罗摩衍那》出在印度之东。前者讲战争，后者讲英雄，前者艰深，有哲学，难懂，后者浪漫，易传。神话，英雄，加天才，即史诗，中国没有此物。\n如果有人能以诗的形式改写《三国演义》，或不输《荷马史诗》，但改写者必须具有荷马的天才–世界各大国，大族的历史都丰富悲壮，然而伟大的诗才太少了，中国没有史诗流传下来。历史学家要的是当然，艺术家要的是“想当然”。\n哲学，宗教，艺术\n哲学\n什么是哲学，是思考宇宙，思考人在宇宙的位置，思考生命意义，无功利可言。宇宙观决定世界观，世界观决定人生观，老子庄子，尼采，释迦牟尼，都从这样的顺序而思考。\n哲学家中，只有尼采一人觉察到哲学的不济，坦率的说了出来，其它哲学家不肯承认思想历程的狼狈感。中国百家争鸣时三百年出10个哲学家，不算太多，不幸是后面不再出了，吃老本吃了两千年，坐吃山空，所以唯物论进来的时候，没有抵挡。\n中国哲学，更像是老年哲学，唯有李耳思想最透彻，完全绝望，看破两大神秘，一是天，宇宙；二是人，生命。天地不仁，这个观察过程一定很长，所以相信老子真的很老。且说到圣人不仁，以百姓为刍狗，打破你一切幻想\n在智慧层次上，宗教低于哲学；宗教的善有善报，恶有恶报是低层次的，平民的，乡愿的。善之可爱，皆因无报偿。\n\n历史使人通达，哲学使人明智。\n\n一个哲学家，总得自己定一个点，定一个名。叔本华，自由意志，尼采，权力意志，黑格尔，总念，孔丘是仁，孟轲是义，韩非是法，老子是道。定名是哲学家，感知而不定名是艺术家。\n中国哲学家\n诸子百家，是伦理学家，研究社会结构人际关系；是政治家，讨论治国之策。只有老子思考宇宙，生命，庄子是老子的延续，是老子哲理的艺术化。\n老子是阿婆罗式的，冷静观照，光明澄澈。庄子是狄俄尼索斯式的，放浪形骸，郁勃汪洋。老子是古典的，庄子是浪漫的。老子是苦行的，庄子是享受的，老子内敛克制，以少胜多，以柔克刚，庄子外溢放射，意多繁华，傲慢逍遥。一个像音乐，一个像舞蹈，想西方的日神和酒神。\n老子生活的时代，是很坏的时代，政治卑鄙龌龊，各种治国理论纷纷出笼，而天下俞弄俞乱，他最早知道中国的两种特产，一是暴君，一是暴民。一代代暴君暴民，相互杀，相互转换，文学性呢，语言直白又含蓄，直截了当说出来，再想想，无限深意。\n\n天地不仁，以万物为刍狗（太阳照好人也照坏人）\n\n老庄和尼采通，魏晋高士和尼采通，鲁迅早年受尼采启示，早年才华品格也合乎尼采。不过在中国儒家思想势力太大，司马迁的最高价值是安邦治国，他们不会认为修身齐家治国平天下是小事。古时人不写商人，不写流氓，司马迁才气大，胆魄大，皆入文章，忘记了儒家的训诫。\n宗教\n一神论很难通向泛神，更不可能无神（基督教至今不灭，而不像希腊诸神已消失）。叔本华说，泛神论即客客气气的无神论。希腊之所以健康，是他们早在神的多元性上，伏下了无神论的观念（故中国也是无神论）。\n\n神学是宗教的催眠，我们开了几十年的会，哪里是改造思想，全是催眠，所谓催眠，就是我的意志控制你的意志。\n\n基督\n《旧约》的文字和思想，天然和谐，是由于希伯来人的语言，而《新约》作者似乎都是犹太人（除了圣·路加），以犹太人的思想注入希腊的范畴，这种和谐就不能再有了。《新约》作者采用口语化的文体（大概在耶稣离世30年后），很明智，得以广为宣传，信徒都属于中下阶层，耶稣的新都也多数来自这个阶级。\n要进窄门，引到灭亡的那门是宽的，引到永生那门是窄的，路是小的。\n\n基督教是个人主义，西方知识分子易相信，爱人如己。\n\n宗教的矛盾\n《圣经》中的矛盾：既是无边博大的爱，又是有选择的，很多人他们不爱，只在乎以色列人，看不起法利赛人，看不起税吏，看不起番邦“利未记”有一句：你要爱你的邻人如爱你自己。整个基督教真谛，就在这句，但正是这句问题最大，宗教总是从情理开始，弄到不合情理，逼人弄虚作假（跟佛家的以身饲虎一样）\n佛家\n佛家的前半段，就是悲观主义，道家的后半段，就是超人哲学。佛家以为生命是受苦，易经句句话向往阳刚，但不得已，以阴柔取之，道家以阴柔取阳刚（酒神精神）。\n佛经吸引中国人去研究，说明佛经的文学性，哲理性之丰富，研究佛经，是东方智者和知识分子的一个底。东方经典以佛经最高，波罗蜜多，即反复证明之意。佛教经典是庞大丰富杂乱的，而禅宗是精神快餐，易传。\n佛教与婆罗门教的关系，犹若基督教与犹太教的关系，新教与旧教之分。释迦牟尼，有神意的寂静沉默之人，牟尼，是寂静沉默之意。婆罗门教祭神，乔达摩不来这一套，只注重自我祈祷修行，唯重视悔过和祈祷，这和犹太教和基督教也类似。\n中国知识分子爱信小乘，终身做起。愚夫愚妇信大乘，要上天国，小乘有可能，大乘不可能。\n\n如来，不来不去之意，三生如来，指过去，现在，未来。\n\n基督教佛教都是平民的宗教，道家思想（不成其为宗教），极端贵族。\n艺术\n宗教是父母，艺术是孩子，艺术在童年时靠父母，长大后则难管，到了哀乐中年，渐渐老去，宗教管不着，艺术是单身汉，只有一个朋友，哲学。\n上帝是位立体的艺术家，艺术家只是平面的上帝。艺术家要安于平面，尼采和托尔斯泰都不安于平面，结果一个疯了，一个痴了。\n汤显祖在自己的书信中有言：智极成圣，情极成佛，佛比圣高，圣是现世的，佛是超脱的。汤显祖是极多情的，艺术家是什么呢？现实生活中用不了的热情，用到艺术中去，艺术家都是热情家，热情过盛。\n音乐中最任性的是贝多芬，乐谱中常标出”必须这样“，画家中最任性的是梵高，哲学家中最任性的是尼采。\n音乐是纯粹的，这是它的弱，也是它的崇高。\n行相与灵智\n行相型的艺术家，很好相处，可爱，纯粹。弄灵智的人不好办，都是有神论者，挟灵智而令众生。希腊雕刻是形相和灵智的合一，米开朗基罗也是，故灵智的达芬奇嫉妒他，拉斐尔是形相型的。\n形相到极致，灵智到极致，都是伟大的艺术家。\n人文教养\n画家如果对世界文化缺少概念和休养，文人画就没有了，对文学，文化没素养，会越来越糊涂。毕加索晚年，才气尽，习惯还在，但他内心清楚，他画不好了，脾气坏。中国以前讲琴棋书画要通，现在的科学家，问音乐多数是不懂的，以不懂为乐就不一定对。西方还保留通些的习惯，他们的人文教养正常。\n中国文学\n用衣装喻文学\n多少有名的文学，靠服装，琳琅满目，里面要么一具枯骨，要么一堆肥肉。庄子的衣裳就很讲究，汉人喜宽博，魏晋穿的潇洒，唐人华丽，宋人精巧，明清学唐宋不像，民国乱穿衣。文学，艺术，哲学，思想，像人的肉体一样，贵在骨骼比例关系，肌肉停匀得当，形体美好，穿什么衣服都好看。思想，情操，越是高超，深刻伟大，越是自然涌现。\n希腊神庙，柱子，浮雕，都可说是裸体的，圆就是圆，三角就是三角，到巴洛克，就穿衣服了，到洛可可，全是装饰，内在的真实被掩盖了。\n先秦两汉魏晋\n诗经大部分是民间歌谣，小部分是诗人作品，更小部分是贵族作品。\n离骚\n唐诗是琳琅满目的文字，屈原全篇是一种心情的起伏，充满辞藻，却总在起伏流动，一种飞翔的感觉，用的手法其实是古典意识流，时空交错。屈原很靳尚谗言，又恨王糊涂，遂写《离骚》，可能算是最早的“伤痕文学”。\n渔父劝屈原随波逐流，这是一种老庄哲学。《九歌》是楚国民间的宗教古歌，屈原改动，不动原来的体裁风格，不着痕迹把自己放进去，流露的很自然。《少司命》-有如行书《山鬼》-有如狂草，两篇是中国古典文学的顶峰之作，精神上是贵族的，其余篇幅都是正楷。\n史书\n中国最早的古书，是《尚书》，它不是文学著作，而是历史资料，档案，是古代文诰誓语的汇编，文笔简练，内容繁琐，不是文学。《尚书》后还有一部史书，《春秋》，也不能算文学作品，文笔简练到极点，如“郑伯克段于鄢“，这种高度概括，态度立场观点毫不假借（讥笑哥哥，责备弟弟，批评他们自己的家事弄到像两国交战），就叫做”春秋笔法“。《左传》作者生平不可考，他是第一个以文学水平写史书的人。\n《左传》、《国语》、《战国策》的文学成就不下于《史记》，更高古奇拔，司马迁会写实，像是画油画。\n\n当司马迁写出人物，忘掉儒家时，是他最精彩的部分。写屈原，以儒家精神写，写到鸿门宴，忘了儒家，写项羽即是一种无政府主义。\n\n古代的这光荣现象，因为文学家，史学家，哲学家都是贯通的，现代知识分工大势所趋，一分工，智慧分开。古代文化的总和性现象，一定出华而又实的大人物。\n百家争鸣画像\n中国文化是阴性的，以阴柔达到阳刚，西方则是直截了当的阳刚（耶和华，丘比特，宙斯；中国的始祖和保护神是女娲，王母娘娘，妈祖，观世音）。中国文化几乎没有哲学家，没有正式的大自然科学家。诸子百家是热心于王，霸的伦理学家，权术家，修身齐家治国平天下是哲学吗？兵家，法家，杂家都在权术范畴。\n老子奇怪，主张退，守，弱，柔，独一无二，一是他的气质，二是他吃够了苦，对付宇宙自然，对付人事生活，这般才能保全自己，《周易》也和老子哲学通，都是吃足苦头的经验。\n孔丘思想与李耳正好相反，乐观，积极，务实，以中庸之道架构人伦关系。他其实是一个庸俗的高级知识分子，内心复杂固执，智商很高，精通文学，音乐，讲究吃穿，欲望强盛，种种苛求，十分精致的虚伪，食不厌精脍不厌细，割不正不食…\n\n但只讲了儒家虚伪的一面，没讲儒家高能国家制度帮衬的一面，从人的角度来说，儒家确实枷锁多\n\n墨子是有技术的奴隶，非常好学，受业于儒者，但他有独立思考的能力，一上来就认为孔子的理论偏极端：礼制太烦琐，厚葬费财力，守丧三年太长，伤身体又误生产。他提出巨子学说，成立制度，有点像黑社会的教父，成员都能赴汤蹈火，视死如饴。\n\n墨翟比孔丘小几十年，释迦摩尼生于公元前500余年，比孔丘大几岁。当年希腊正在造宇殿，起塑像，唱歌，跳舞，饮酒，中国正在吵吵闹闹，百家争鸣，而印度正在吃食，绝食。\n\n\n庄子有批评墨子的套路反人性，注定无法长久，但无可磨灭墨子个人的自律精神伟大\n\n荀子赵国人，战国后期儒家大师，当时商鞅变法已过，孔子已死，他是儒学的总结，将法填入礼，才适合一代帝王的统治术，历来不肯明说，扬孔而隐荀。荀子是个强者，豪爽而实际，当时是个革新派，青出于蓝而胜于蓝就是《劝学篇》里的句子。\n韩非子是荀子的学生，是战国末年融汇诸子百家的任务，后称法理学家，文学特点笔锋犀利，说理透辟，通俗易懂，矛盾一词就出自他的《说难》\n老子精炼奥妙，庄子汪洋恣肆，孟子庄严雄辩，墨子质朴生动（若以墨子治国，中国早已是强国），韩非子犀利明畅，荀子严密透辟，孔子圆融周到(孔子调皮，滑头，话从不说死)。他们(这些巨子)的用字，用比喻，都成专利，别人冒充不得。\n汉魏晋\n中国历代大人物的自我期许，自我评价，现代话叫自我推销，古话叫做”言志“，魏晋人士的言志最好，狂而得体，不肉麻而能诗意洋溢。孔丘多重人格，表面一套，心里一套，标榜”君子泰而不骄“，却又熬不住，说出来。孔孟都是憋不住发出舍我其谁的感慨。\n汉的赋家，魏晋高士，唐代诗人，全从庄子来。\n中国的伦理观是孔孟的，艺术观是老庄的。\n唐诗\n李杜二人，承继有别，李白承《楚辞》，杜甫承《诗经》\n\n会当，唐人口语，一定要\n\n中国的文化，秦以前是人民的文学，秦以后是士大夫的文学，皇帝大臣刺史州官均会写诗。\n宋词\n范仲淹”先天下之忧“名句，很正经，但写起词来，和女人一样善感，词人一写词，多数都像女人一样。向来是婉约派占上风，算是词的正宗，词本来是小品，是小提琴，打仗可用枪炮，不要勉强小提琴去打仗，所以你推苏东坡，辛弃疾是弄错了方向。\n绝句律句，自齐到唐，到全盛期，渐渐太过成熟而烂，词开始的很早，在唐代，即有人写词，想《菩萨蛮》《忆秦娥》多数学者认为是李白写的，越是有才华，敏感的诗人，文人，越是开风之先。\n宋初出现所谓百年盛世，比较安定，城市经济繁华，文化渐盛，妓院场馆需唱，词于是发达，上下阶层均欢迎，上层写雅词，下层写俚词。\n辛弃疾，爱国词人，其实”官倒“很厉害，贪污也多。\n戏曲\n宋朝伶人唱的曲，其实是词，金人占据中国北部，词作者觉得格律不够表现强烈复杂的情绪，也太嫌斯文，不够口语化，便另创新形式，就是所谓北曲的起源。\n早期剧中配角只能白，不能唱，只有才子佳人才能唱。较复杂的故事，四折实在概括不了，北曲行了很久以后，南方才把北方的成例突破，无论哪个角色都可以唱，幕或折，都增加了。\n中国戏剧是官方也提倡，民间也热衷，咋没出世界性的大作品？中国剧作家的创作观念是伦理的，寓教于戏，起感化教育作用。容易写成红脸白脸，好人坏人，不在人性上深挖深究。儿女情长，长到结婚为止，英雄气短，短到大团圆，不再牺牲了。在人伦关系上转圈圈。\n莎翁的作品，无为，剧中有好人也有坏人，他关心怎么个好法，怎么个坏法，所以他伟大。人性，近看是看不清的，人间百态，莎翁退的很开。莎翁是放之四海而皆准，中国元曲，则不然。再其次，中国戏剧的唱词，念白，互不协调。唱有诗意，念则俗意，莎士比亚的唱词，念白，通体是诗。\n在戏剧中还夹着中国民族的一个偏好，什么呢，喜欢”作美“，职业媒婆多，业余媒婆更多。中国人爱这种团圆，状元，作美，是想把一切都当场在剧院里了结，西方不肯了结，带回家。\n明清小说\n古代民间文学都是白话文，白话文古已有之，绝非”五四“以后才有。小说，是现在的词，当时叫做平话，也就是”评话“，”说书“，以口语敷衍故事，带有动作，重点是说白。说书的人很能发挥，譬如讲武松进酒店，大喝一声，酒瓮嗡嗡作回答，完全是发挥创造。\n相较西方而言，小说的兴盛期明朝，多取唐人传奇，说明明人创作力不高，没有大灵感。\n\n一则边角小记，《狮吼记》写苏轼之友陈季常害怕老婆，其妻柳氏善妒，东坡设计赠以家姬，后以佛印禅师降服了号为河东狮子之柳氏。这是难得的喜剧，情节对白很风趣，人物逼真，流传广，从前讽人怕老婆，曰。贵公有季常癖乎。\n\n有些奇怪的是大部头书中，鲜提民间社会，如民间社会在《红楼梦》一点没有提到，《老残游记》,《儒林外史》也只稍稍点到，不应该忘记这些民间文化。\n历史小说是不容易写的好，太真实，呆板无趣（如东周列国，两晋演义）；离真实太远，则荒诞无据（如《杨家将》），只可惜当时没出伟大的文学家，不然可以又真实又文学，所以讲史平话盛极一时，都是宝塔，没有塔尖。塔尖在哪里呢？不是历史题材，而是纯粹的创作，《西游记》，《金瓶梅》。\n西游的争论与创作\n有过争论的《长春真人西游记》，实为李志常所写，相干的是杨致和《西游记传》，才两薄本，一说吴承恩放大了十倍，此说比较可靠，两本对照，可见吴本的高超。所以天才者，就是有资格挪用别人的东西，拿了你的东西，叫你拜倒，世界上只有这种强盗是高贵的，莎士比亚是强盗王，吴承恩这强盗也有两下子，想象他的性情，是个快乐人，大有趣，孙悟空的模特，就是他自己。\n东游记，南游记，北游记，故事变幻有趣，但文笔不济，远不如吴承恩的天才和功力，吴承恩把南游记，北游记的精华也拖了几段过来（铁扇公主即出于《南游记》），中国文学史从来没有像孙悟空这么一个皮大王，没有人这样大规模以动物拟人化，以人拟动物化。\n《西游记》后，写奇幻小说的有《封神传》,《三宝太监西洋记通俗演义》，封神榜故事场面大，多变，但文笔一般，限于民间社会，上不到文士阶层。哪吒闹海一段，写出了中国第二号异端，在忠孝至上的仁义之邦，哪吒是彻头彻尾的叛逆者。\n几部小说名著\n《金瓶梅》《西游记》《水浒传》三大奇书，三部奇书，奇在一部给男人看，一部给小孩看，一部给女人看。《水浒》着力写男人，女性带带过就算了，《西游记》童心烂漫，写个有童心的成人，《金瓶梅》对妇女性格的刻画，极为精细，近乎现代的所谓心理小说。\n《红楼梦》是浪漫的，《金瓶梅》是现代的。读红楼梦，难在你必须高于作者（指观点），方能了悟此书巨大的潜台词。\n《金瓶梅》更容易误解，太像性书，性通常是器官在活动，没有人，金瓶梅不然，器官在身上，还是写成了人，几乎是性的陀思妥耶夫斯基，完成了艺术，要靠你自己找出它的艺术。明朝富贵人家和平民百姓，淫风大盛，杨乃武小白菜的时代何尝不然。\n红书明朗，金书幽暗，放大瞳孔看，一如托尔斯泰明朗，陀思妥耶夫斯基幽暗。\n三言两拍限于民间社会，士大夫阶层不关心，以为不登大雅之堂。\n曹雪芹和红楼梦\n曹雪芹的伟大，分为两极，一是细节伟大，玲珑剔透：一痰一咳一物，都是水盈盈的，可把握的真颓废，比法国人精细多了；再者是整体控制的伟大：绝对残酷，不宠人物，当死者死，当病者病，当侮者侮。他一点不可怜书中人，始终坚持反功利，反世俗，以宝玉，黛玉来反。\n\n但看高晓松的评说，曹雪芹还是置了褒贬的，看不起焦大，看不起刘姥姥，推崇一群唇红齿白的正太处女。不似《金瓶梅》一般真实残酷，不置褒贬，一切白描，抛开架构和文字，《金瓶梅》更显得现代和突出。\n\n波斯文学，阿拉伯文学\n同样写饮酒，东方是借酒浇愁，忘忧，西方则是创造极乐，狂欢。\n大家没有读过《可兰经》，却多少听到过《一千零一夜》的故事，证明艺术比宗教更有生命。\n日本\n日本本国有名的思想家匮乏，都是从中国哪去和欧洲来的思想。\n平假名，片假名，其实是整个借字和局部借字之说。\n《源氏物语》作者紫式部是宫廷贵妇人，也是女官，父亲是大学问家，博学早寡，守在宫中，和《红楼梦》一样，是回忆文学，和红楼梦不一样的是，她写完了。\n日本的好处是没有成见，善于模仿，不动声色地模仿。喝茶，中国讲究差距，环境士大夫化，士大夫没有了，茶则沦为茶馆，卖茶叶蛋。日本则规规矩矩，恭恭敬敬弄成茶道，但其实也是野狐禅居多，将茶弄成形而上，成为一种礼，不过尊敬茶，也是尊敬自己。\n真正理解日本文化的还是中国人，我们看日本生活情调，居高临下，他们再好，再精致，我们一目了然。\n文艺复兴时代的西方文学\n蒸汽机推动了产业革命，印刷机推动了文艺复兴。\n马基雅维利的《君主论》，讲韬略权谋，与中国兵法比，更赤裸裸谈论权力与统治。拿破仑，俾斯麦都以马的理论为然，但培根的评价最为中肯，他说，我们十分感谢马基雅维利，他写出了人所做的事儿，而不是人应该做的事。\n《哈姆雷特》与《唐吉坷德》\n《哈姆雷特》与《唐吉坷德》是人类的两大类型。\n塞万提斯与莎士比亚同年同月同日死，典型西班牙男子冒险的一生。先与土耳其打仗，失左臂，醒来后人告知失臂，他说：那右臂就更伟大更有力量了。三十四岁写作，脾气不好，常入狱，出书后成名，一点好处也没有，还要饭。后十年写成《唐吉坷德》，这是一本从嘲笑开始，以祈祷结束的伟大的人道主义杰作，骑士的行径怪诞不经，悖于情理，可你读着读着，会深深同情他（骑士的善良被浪费了），这就是塞万提斯的文学魅力（伟大的善良）。\n\n骑士晚年退休后没有保障，弱者当雇佣兵，强者当强盗，制度没落了，塞万提斯就写骑士。\n\n写作是面对上帝（艺术），讲课是面对学生（朋友），演讲是面对群众（平民），对上帝说的话，绝不对门徒讲，同理类推，该懂的懂，不该懂的就让他不懂。\n许多作家喜欢死乞白赖地赖在角色身上，喜欢靠角色来说自己的话，可是莎士比亚，普希金，陀思妥耶夫斯基，福楼拜，司汤达，哈代，巴尔扎克，从不和剧中人发生暧昧关系，哈姆雷特是莎士比亚精神上的儿子，是莎翁所有名著中最大的一颗明珠，可是这位父亲一点不通私情，冷静看他儿子表演。\n哈姆雷特是个悲观主义者，但却是享乐主义者，是个思想者，不肯行动，觉得”我在思想里已做过一回了“，一个思想过度的人，行动非常软弱\n\n思想多而行动少 – 悲观而享乐，最吸引女性，但爱上这种人，不会有结果，林黛玉爱上一个贾宝玉。\n\n读欧洲历史，不可忘两种思潮：\n\n\n希伯来思潮\n\n希伯来思潮以基督教为代表，注重未来，希望在天堂，忽略现世，讲禁欲，组织上，教会统治一切.英国，希伯来思潮主流\n\n\n\n希腊思潮\n\n雅典文化为代表，讲现世，享乐，直觉。组织上讲民主自由。\n\n\n\n西方文艺复兴伟大大艺术家都是异教的，米开朗基罗的《大卫》，是古代以色列王，他弄成男性裸体美，当时何等大胆，不得了的大事。\n莫里哀死在舞台上，他的剧本影响法国日常用语，比任何法国文学家大。这种语言的实际影响和功劳，如但丁之于意大利，塞万提斯之于西班牙，莎士比亚之于英国。\n《鲁滨逊漂流记》是一个分水岭，逼真的文学替代了古代幻想的文学，古文学和新文学的分界在此。现代人喜欢真实，在陀思妥耶夫斯基之前，以为已写的真实了，到陀氏一出，啊！文学能那么真实，到普鲁斯特，更真实。\n文采/形式的重要\n一种思维，一种情操，来自品性伟大的人，那么这个人本身是个创造者，思维，情操的创造性，必然伴随着形式的创造性。艺术原理，形式，内容是一致的，没有形式的内容，是不可知的，独立于内容之外的形式，也是不可知的。后世哲学家不过是思想的翻版，盗版，不是创造性的，所以，不可能有文学性。\n**哲学家，史家，必须得兼文学家，否则无文采。孔丘是伦理学家，但他有文采。**艺术家要留名，一定要”文采风流“，拉斐尔不及芬奇，文才不及也。\n\n孔子说，不学诗，无以言。他懂得文采的重要。从汉朝开始，《诗经》不当做作品，而当做伦理，教条，格言，将其文学价值文学光辉淹没了，儒家使《诗经》没落，魏晋的文人还是很明显的受到《诗经》的影响，将其精神，技巧继承发扬了。\n\n\n从西方史诗到中国《诗经》，充满比喻，几乎是靠比喻架构完成的，劝君使其听，用比喻，对下民，知其不懂，也用比喻。\n古代画战争，伤的，死的，姿态优美，古人就是懂得一切讲姿态，你要永垂不朽，无穷魅力，必得讲究姿态。\n\n每一教的创教者，都是坦荡真诚的，有创造性。凡教会，就有功利性，然而又不能公开，故向上用经院哲学，向下是标语口号，任何一种意识形态，都先要从语言入手，共产运动也如此。\n\n孟子文学才能极高，这是他们占的优势，墨子吃点亏，老庄是不折不扣的艺术家，故赢得世界声誉。庄子和孟子同期，略小，二人从未谋面，文学源流，都从庄子来。\n\n格局与俗套\n文学家，固然要文字高超，最后还得靠“神智器识”统摄技巧，神智器识，可姑且解作世界观，世界观，意味着上有宇宙观，下有人生观。要不落俗套，有小俗套，大俗套，后者是别人的风格，对你来说就是俗套，别人的雅，就是你的俗。\n大的叛逆，要找大的主题，攻击上帝的，是尼采，攻击宇宙的，是老子，他们从来不肯指具体的人，事。鲁迅大量的讽刺文，对象太具体，今日没有人看了。\n嘲笑是文学的侧面，光靠嘲笑不能成其伟大的文学。庄子不老是嘲笑，仅用一用，余力用到文学的正面。\n历史只说悄悄话\n历史的契机，往往在”置死地而后生“，之于改革开放和文革。\n每一种文化，当它过去后，看回去，是有一个人作为前导，代表，象征。事前是无法预知的，事中，也是半知半觉，直到最后，它死了，同代人也不存在了，这时，历史开始说话，谁是前导，谁是代表，谁是象征。历史从不疾呼，历史只说悄悄话。\n少年人的指导\n一个人能否成大器，主观因素最重要（存在感？），被人忽略的是信心。天才幼年只有信心，没有计划。\n少年人一定要好的长辈指导，光是游历，没有用的。少年人大多心猿意马，华而不实，忽而兴奋，忽而消沉，很多青少年时期好机会错过了，没错过大多也被自己浪费了。\n后记\n木心讲课的框架底本，借自上世纪二十年代郑振铎的《文学大纲》。他不是学者，是个作家，是个艺术家，以作家身份谈文学史，遂有作家的“artistic excuse”，比较浅显，有很多乾纲独断的个人见解，金句也多。这也是我摘取记录的原因吧。\n\n人类的伟大高贵，完全在于精神生活，在于少数的精神贵族，即天才和天才的朋友（欣赏者）。\n连科技与真理的探索都不提，嗯，一口老血。\n\n总体上感觉其意见混乱，不成体系性，也不够严谨，随便。但对于文学白痴的我，翻看也能了解一些大体脉络，有自我分辨之心就好，善莫大焉。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文学"]},{"title":"文学回忆录-下","url":"/%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95-%E4%B8%8B.html","content":"\n总纲弥补\n历史是更伟大的圣经，文学史是在讲文学的圣经，学文学，就是文学的神学。\n精髓\n讲文学史课，胜于读书，就好在可以讲私房话\n动机\n这几年开讲文学，是为了他自己，是想训练口才，第一次讲完，气也透不过来，后来七八个小时也能讲，以后回大陆见人，可以当众说话。\n\n发现其课程里的确”私货“越讲越通畅，在这下半册中，的确内容很多，只可惜自己认识的文学家太少，读的太少，感同身受不得，所以摘录有限，算是一种无知的不太尊重。\n\n十九世纪的文学\n木心想，凡能搞起主义运动的，大致是二流角色，走兽飞禽中，可以找到例证：鹰，狮，虎，都是孤独的，不合群的，牛马羊蚁，一大群，还哇哇叫，最合群是蛆虫。“文革”最聪明，他们把你“隔离审查”，他们知道人是合群的，可是连陶渊明也受不了—结庐在人境，却无车马喧，只要一隔离，全部都完蛋。\n所以文学的黄金时代，是十九世纪，这时的大作家都不合群，那时没有作家协会，十九世纪是个光荣的世纪。偏近代的人的主观观点如此相似，反过来看十九世纪，叔本华，尼采，等等，都异乎寻常，这也是十九世纪的魅力。\n\n英国篇\n诗人\n歌德一有机会就赞美拜伦，因为在文学上或生活上，拜伦做了歌德想做而不敢做的事情。拜伦的个人之上，纯粹的独立和自由其实就是尼采的超人意志。可以说拜伦是“超人”的少年时期，和唐璜等都是语言蛮横的小伙子，不读书不看报，漫游抢劫乱伦，骂上帝，这位怀疑主义的子弟尚未成熟，他诗中的人物，都是捣蛋的美少年，胆大，气醇，赋厚。\n尼采一来，超人进入中年壮年，他不再如拜伦诅咒上帝，干脆宣布上帝已死，小老板（耶稣）又不在，一切重新估价，更提出系统的理论，这是哀乐中年说的话。\n雪莱与拜伦性格不一样，拜伦因为思想上的不成熟，呼天抢地地宣扬他的怀疑，雪莱也因为思想上的不成熟，欢天喜地维持他的信仰。\n\n西风颂有句：冬天到了，春天还会远吗，这是雪莱的名言，世界哪是这样的，好人读了要上当的。\n\n西方人真正会写的，是小说，不是诗，中国人反过来。但既然讲到那个时代的英国文学，也要说些积极的。那时的诗，已摆脱神话英雄故事，自湖畔诗派起，已倾向生活，爱，儿童，自然，属于感情上的民主主义。以诗论，勃朗宁强，借古代，显示现代气息，赏十九世纪英国诗，要保持距离。\n\n如听说过勃朗宁诗为蓝本的儿童故事《花衣吹笛人》\n\n狄更斯\n查尔斯-狄更斯，早年穷困，父亲还不起债入狱，不幸的生活早就他的文学起点，他从未进过学校，一切自修。父亲出狱后送他到律师事务所工作，他不喜，宁可去当速记员，得以练习速记和文章的剪裁。托尔斯泰说：忧来无方，窗外下雨，坐沙发，吃巧克力，读狄更斯，心情又会好起来，和世界妥协。**如果谁落在忧悒中，不妨试试，沙发，巧克力，狄更斯。**狄更斯的小说结尾，失散和久别的亲友又在一起了，总是夜晚，总是壁炉柴火熊熊燃，总是蜡烛，热茶，大家围着那张不大不小的圆桌，你看我，我看你，往事如烟，人生如梦，昔在，今在，永在。这种英国式的小团圆，比中国式的大团圆有诗意得多，在硬撑时，谁不思念狄更斯结局中的那张不大不小的圆桌？\n女作家\n十九世纪后半叶的英国文学，女作家领头登场，勃朗特三姐妹，她们在约克郡一直写到死，真正做到了生活和艺术的一元。感情上爱情上看不懂《简爱》，是个大老粗，对《少年维特》《简爱》《茶花女》《冰岛渔夫》这几部爱情小说，如果看不懂，不爱看，那是爱情的门外汉门外婆。西方有这个好处，有这样健康的爱情教科书，中国要么道德教训，要么淫书。人生多少事，只能“虽不能至，心向往之”。人的幸福，其实就是到心向往之的地步。\n爱情的内容其实很简单，没有多大内容，为何有的爱情造成这样大的历史景观？因为遇到挫折，不让他们爱，于是道德，智慧出现，才显得伟大。光是爱情，有多少东西？歌德说：高昂的热情，坚持不了两个月。\n儿童文学\n《爱丽丝奇游记》据现在说，是为一个女孩写的，一出版就风行各地。罗伯特-路易斯-史蒂文森的《金银岛》非常有名，尤为少年喜。他的冒险小说一不写爱情，二不写悲剧，英文本领无敌，语言特别有弹性，纯技术地去享受，欣赏他的英文本领。\n哈代\n托马斯-哈代，伦敦国王学院出身，十六岁学建筑，数度得到皇家建筑师学会奖励，二十五后才专事文学，一个大问题，天才如何认识自己，如果哈代的才智用在建筑上，名利双收，前程远大，他不走，一个天才是在他一无所有时，就知道自己的才能在哪方面。\n《苔丝》这种小说，福楼拜，托尔斯泰，看了都会发呆。我想象福楼拜会说：我还是写的粗了，急躁了。如果给陀思妥耶夫斯基看，他会说：你注意到吗？我用的方法也是这样的，他用大调，我用小调。\n他是真正的大家，内心有大慈大悲，行文非常迟缓。哈代，陀氏，是一种方法的两种用处，公平地说，福楼拜，托尔斯泰是耶稣衣服的一部分，重外在；哈代，陀氏，是耶稣心灵的一部分，重内在。\n读书如交友，读万卷书，朋友总有千把个，但刎颈之交，不过十来人。一个人要成熟，成长，成功，其过程应该是不自觉，半自觉，自觉这样一个自然的过程。艺术家贵在自觉，曹雪芹是半自觉的，哈代陀氏是恰如其分的自觉，普鲁斯特，乔伊斯，太过自觉了。哈代可以教大家的，是气度。陀氏可学的，是一种文字的粘度，一看就脱不开了。\n人要从凡人做起，也要学会做观众。起点高，而不退到观众席，老在台上演戏，那糟糕至极。罗兰一上来就起点太高，结果并不长进，在师范大学写信给托尔斯泰，是这点水准，到老得诺贝尔奖，还是这点水准。\n王尔德\n王尔德讲起话来气象很大，如“思想总是朝阴影飞去，太阳是嫉妒艺术的”。他的逆论，容易讨好羡慕智慧的人，但说者常把读者看轻，让人讨厌。他的生活是个失败者，自称天才用在生活中，却结果正好相反。健康，灵活，明智，健美，善于保护自己，留后路，这才是生活中的天才。\n\n什么是艺术家，要将天才用到生活上而不配，去用在艺术上者。要自己会料理自己，思想家，第一不要疯，艺术家，第一不要倒下去，本来站不直，靠艺术才能站好，怎能跌倒，连艺术的面子也会丢。\n\n法国篇\n一个文学家，艺术家如果被人归类为什么主义，那是悲哀的，如果作者是自己标榜的，那一定不是一流。大艺术家一定不是什么主义的，莎士比亚什么主义。要讲笑话时，也不要说：我来讲过笑话。\n雨果\n《巴黎圣母院》《悲惨世界》《九三年》宏大，奇怪，振奋人心，用的是故事，情节，场面，人物是为故事，情节，场面存在的，和陀氏相反，陀的故事情节是为人物存在，当人物说话时，故事情节场面好像都停顿了，不存在了，雨果和陀氏比，陀氏更高超，符合原理。\n雨果是当时的诗王，占了近五十年的王位，小说，戏剧，名声极大，诗名尤大，但大家听说最多还是那些小说，其实他确实擅写诗，心肠柔软，头脑凌冽，很有才。他有伟大的仁慈，对法兰西，对世界，对全人类都是爱，都关怀，面对此种伟人，心里时时尊敬，也是对前辈应有的态度。\n\n\n如下这部分从得到-吴军-阅读与写作50讲中摘录，他单拎出来提醒从李文这个角色理解现在的西方\n\n《九三年》这本书是雨果最后一部小说，它完成于1874年，当时法国刚经历巴黎公社起义。已经72岁高龄的雨果对人性有了极为深刻的思考。因此，他在这本书中所描写的人性相当复杂，不像在《巴黎圣母院》中所描写的善恶美丑分明。\n\n白军统帅朗特纳克侯爵, 蓝军指挥官郭文子爵。郭文和朗特纳克是远房亲戚，但双方都坚持自己的政治主张，要消灭对方。朗特纳克是一个非常冷血而残忍的人，对拥护共和国的人绝不留情。而郭文是一个军事天才，打得白军节节败退。\n朗特纳克等人被包围到一个有平民做人质的城堡里。最后白军终于抵挡不住，放火烧了城堡，朗特纳克带领手下从密道逃跑了，出城堡的一刻，听到一位母亲的呼救声，原来她的三个孩子被困在城堡里了。朗特纳克毅然从暗道返回城堡，救出了那三个孩子，然后就被郭文逮捕了\n在如何处置朗特纳克上郭文和他的老师发生了意见分歧，老师认为革命高于一切，主张处死朗特纳克。郭文却认为大恶人朗特纳克在危急时刻，显示出人性善良的一面，希望饶他不死。最终郭文进入牢中，跟朗特纳克交换了服装，放跑了他，自己替他受死。老师忍痛将郭文处死，然后自己也自杀了。\n\n雨果一生经历了法国的多次革命，可以讲是惯看秋月春风了，他的思想相比年轻时有了巨大的变化。当年他曾经因为反对拿破仑三世称帝而被流放，但是到了晚年，他却开始怀疑暴力行为能否真正解决社会问题。早年他支持法国殖民非洲，到了晚年，他开始谴责法国参与血洗圆明园。在巴黎公社的问题上，雨果则强烈谴责对阵双方的暴行。他在日记里写道：\n\n“简而言之，这个公社是白痴，正如国民议会太残暴一样。两边都荒唐。”\n\n虽然这么评价巴黎公社，但对于晚年的雨果来讲，人性的善是最可贵的，并且他身体力行。在巴黎公社失败后，帮助遭到镇压的公社社员，为他们寻求比利时的政治庇护。雨果最终的理想是建立一个大家能够和平相处的欧洲共和国，不再有战争和暴力，并且呼吁废除死刑。如果他生活在今天一体化的欧洲，大概会感到欣慰很多。\n为了解释朗特纳克身上的矛盾，很多人主张人性会被阶级性或者说团体的利益扭曲，也就是说，朗特纳克原本是有人性的，但是一旦被阶级、民族利益所左右，人性就会被淹没或者掩盖。对于这个问题，雨果没有给出答案，而是启发读者去思考。但是，从雨果在巴黎公社事件前后的所作所为和言论来看，他到后来是厌恶了当时法国大革命的那些政治、民族主义和阶级对立的，认为它们扭曲了人性。\n\n朗特纳克做了善事，有没有资格将功补过？\n\n对于自我赎罪的人，雨果的想法是矛盾的，所以他通过郭文表达出，他希望对这些人网开一面，又通过西穆尔登神父，表达出应该严惩首犯的看法。\n\n郭文是否是个烂好人？\n\n对这个问题雨果也没有给出答案。显然，朗特纳克逃出去后，肯定会继续组织反攻。对敌人的同情，就是对自己人的残忍，这一点郭文是清楚的。但是他依然决定用自己的命去救朗特纳克，这体现出一种骑士精神。如果朗特纳克真的有贵族精神的话，他应该好汉做事好汉当，而不是让郭文顶缸，自己逃走。郭文这样的人物，同样能够影射到今天欧美人身上。和欧美人打了几十年的交道后，发现今天很多欧美人，就是雨果笔下的郭文。\n他们不会站在全局的高度来决定该如何做事情，很容易被一些善行感动，这当然也有人性光辉的一面*。因此，处于矛盾中的雨果，一方面将郭文这个烂好人处死，另一方面讴歌他的善。在全球化的今天，和西方人打交道，就必须理解他们中有一大堆郭文这样的烂好人。你要是不认同他们，就很容易受到围攻。*\n\n为什么小说的结尾正面的角色都死了，反角反而逃脱了？\n\n这就需要换位思考了。其实，虽然雨果整本书都安排郭文处在一个正面角色的地位，但是如果换一个角度来看，可能那就是另一个故事了。朗特纳克为什么要反叛，因为当时雅各宾派在法国各地杀了一万六千人，抓了50万人，所以朗特纳克也不得不反抗。实际上在雨果的书里，不管是保皇党还是共和党，在面对平民时，都是同样冷漠和残忍。大革命里法国的芸芸众生，在他们眼中不过是实现自己政治目的的代价。但是雨果认为：“在革命的绝对真理之上，存在着人道的绝对真理”。因此在他的书中，并没有真正的正派和反派之分。这部作品凝练了雨果一生对人性善恶的思考。\n好的作品，不是给一个完美的答案，而是启发你做更多的思考。\n雨果提出的问题，我们至今绕不过去。比如：前两年对待中东难民的问题、今天各国防疫的措施，都涉及人性的冲突。这时我就会想：“这又回到了雨果当年谈的老问题了。”\n\n大小仲马\n大仲马有黑人血统，文学老板，很会经营事业，有两百个伙计，小说工厂，日夜开工，出两百多种小说，《三剑客》《基督山恩仇记》法国妇孺皆知，就像旧中国的关公，武松，家喻户晓。如果没有通俗小说，人们谈什么，何等无聊。通俗小说最好是三十岁前读，且一口气读完。\n作为一个有心性的男子，人生的快乐无非是有恩报恩，有仇报仇，人生不得此痛快，小说中痛快痛快。\n小仲马是大仲马的私生子，家教严，被关起来，写完再放出来，有《茶花女》等二十多个剧本，论技巧，胜于大仲马，结构严密，人物真切，在法国长期有影响。\n巴尔扎克\n巴尔扎克很怪，以为自己善于经营事业，但诸事皆败，死心写作，靠班费版税，写作还债，一辈子还不清的债，可见他的生活一点不现实，一进入文学，就现实了。他的手稿，据说是全世界最潦草的。\n\n他写作时穿着浴衣，蓬头垢面，一个人在房间里大声说话，和小说中的人对话，吵架。十九世纪墨水干得慢，要用吸墨纸，巴尔扎克用粉吸墨，像爽身粉，胡椒面，把粉洒在稿纸上，叫道，好一场大战。常常忽然失踪，半年一年没消息，忽然一天出现扔一捆手稿在沙发，随之倒下，大叫“给我吃的”。\n\n他的世界中，人，事，物 都是夸张的，就方法论而言，和米开朗基罗的壁画是一样的。一进入他的书，就感到他每个人物的精力。福楼拜一定嫉妒巴尔扎克，一如芬奇嫉妒米开朗基罗。巴尔扎克是动，福楼拜是静，巴尔扎克，米开朗基罗多产，福楼拜，芬奇，是少作的。\n《人间喜剧》总计划未完成，但和《红楼》缺后半部不一样，他的未完成不遗憾。他是整体性的渊博，社会结构，时尚风格，人间百态，什么都懂。法国小说家如果要论到伟大，首推巴尔扎克，他的整个人为文学占有，被作品吸干。难在有一个巴尔扎克。\n福楼拜\n年轻人谈人生，谈世界，其实说的是自己。\n福楼拜初写《圣安东尼的诱惑》不成功，遇到大批评家圣伯夫（Sainte-Beuve），劝他写“黄色新闻”，三思，懂了，写成《包法利夫人》。他是世界文学史上最讲究文法修辞的大宗师，本人是个对世界的绝望者，深知人的劣败，无情揭露，其实是个道德力量特别强，又特别隐晦的人物。他的小说人物都是些不三不四，无可奈何的角色。晚年说：我还有好几桶脏水，要倒到人类头上。他写的都是些他看不起的人，主张不动感情，不表立场。\n司汤达\n《红与黑》的故事，红指军装，黑指教袍，主角于连夹在两者之间，故称“红与黑”\n莫泊桑\n莫泊桑从平凡琐屑中截取片段，构思，布局，别具匠心，文词质朴优美，结局耐人寻味。\n一定要比的话，巴尔扎克，福楼拜，司汤达，更有未来的意义和价值。司汤达的光射的最远，莫泊桑的光比较柔和，以后可能暗淡了，地位始终在的，契科夫还是不及莫泊桑。\n莫泊桑体质好，但消耗得厉害，十年全盛期过完，得了严重的神经官能症，近乎疯狂，四十三岁就逝世了。\n十九世纪后半叶到二十世纪上半叶，是一个时期，可理解为老派短篇小说时期，莫泊桑，契科夫，欧亨利，是代表。二十世纪后半叶，世界性地产生了新的短篇小说，体裁，风格，大异于老派。法国，英国领先，美国随之而起，南美大有后来居上之势，日本也窜上来了，新型的短篇小说，特征是散文化，不老实，重机智，人物和情节不循常规，先读新派，嘴巴刁了，再读老派会觉得笨，啰嗦，把读者当傻瓜。\n德国篇\n划线笔记的都是哲学评价而不是文学评价了\n什么是悲观主义，我觉得是“透”观主义，不要着眼于“悲”，要着眼于“观”，说夸张点，悲观主义是一个勇敢的人的态度。\n所谓东方，中国才是代表，西方最缺的就是中国的东西：含蓄，以弱制胜。这里讲的中国，是指嵇康他们，就像讲俄国，是讲普希金一般。\n叔本华、康德、尼采、瓦格纳不是四个人，而是一个人，这一个人有时悲观，有时快乐，有时认真，有时茫然。尼采有哈姆雷特的一面，也有唐吉坷德的一面，但偏爱他哈姆雷特的一面，很多人是在读他唐吉坷德的一面。\n俄国篇\n俄国文学实发于十九世纪，就一百年，天才纷纷降生，难以解释，期初当然受欧罗巴影响，后来反过来影响欧罗巴，整个世界忙不过来地读俄国文学。\n任何天才免不了模仿期（贝多芬的第一，第二交响乐，就明显受莫扎特，海顿的影响），而天才的特征，又是不顾死活要找自己的风格，“风格”的定义，最近得到的诠释是：敏于受影响，烈于展个性，是谓风格。\n\n与鲁迅同代的，郁达夫学卢梭，郭沫若学歌德，茅盾学左拉，巴金学罗曼罗兰\n\n托尔斯泰十岁时，陀思妥耶夫斯基十七岁，而屠格涅夫二十岁，这三位天才，是一代人。屠格涅夫父亲是没落贵族，母亲性格怪癖，有大庄园，童年时对农奴制度的残暴乖谬，愤懑不平。他自己是哈姆雷特型，因此大力夸奖唐吉坷德型（像哈姆雷特那样深思，像唐吉坷德那样勇敢）\n陀思妥耶夫斯基\n陀思妥耶夫斯基生于医生家庭，从小爱文学，遵父意学工程，毕业后专事写作。小说《穷人》集成普希金，果戈里传统，但他自己的风格全在其中。\n1849年，陀氏被捕，判死刑，在刑场即将枪决的一瞬间，沙皇特赦，改判四年苦役，六年军役。罪名呢？一是朗读别林斯基致果戈里的信，内容是反农奴制度的，二是筹备秘密印刷所，三是参与彼得拉舍夫斯基小组。\n在此之前，陀氏思想进步，流放后，成了唯心主义，敌视革命。陀氏的读者在欧洲，情况有点像佛教，释迦牟尼后来在印度吃不开的，到了中国，佛教兴盛了。欧洲一般的评论，认为陀氏最能表现神秘的斯拉夫民族的灵魂。\n托尔斯泰\n托尔斯泰父母都是古老而有名望的大贵族，十岁前父母双亡，而家道富厚。受法国启蒙运动思想影响，反沙皇专制，退学回家，在自己的领地上尝试改革，结果农民不信他，也不接受（农民怕上小当，革命来了，上大当很起劲），后来赴高加索当下级军官，在克里米亚战争立功，那段经历，为他累积了《战争和和平》的战争场面素材。\n他两度游历欧洲，然而不喜，完全否定欧洲文明，对金钱地位的崇拜引他愤怒，回国后又在自己的庄园办学校，做调解员，当陪审员，维护农民的利益（奇怪的是，他一生只爱农民，只见农民，不见人类），临死前还在想：农民是这样死的？不过从电影上看，俄国农村，农民，确实可爱。\n写完《安娜》为便于孩子上学，托尔斯泰举家迁往莫斯科，调查贫民探访监狱，更加紧哲学，宗教，道德，伦理的研究。可怜这位老先生学不进去，他头脑中早就自有一套，别的思想塞不进去。\n托尔斯泰当时的国际地位非常高，一不高兴，直接写信给皇帝，劈头就说：你忏悔吧。朝廷要办他，宪兵将军说：他的威望太大，俄罗斯监狱容不了他，不敢动，利用最高教会机关宣布托尔斯泰为“邪教徒，叛教者”，开除教籍，这时他快八十岁了。遵照他的遗嘱，葬在故乡庄园，没有十字架，没有墓碑–伟大。\n高尔基\n高尔基善于理解人，善于爱人，最好的作品，是对文学长辈与同代人的回忆。大革命后，高尔基苦苦求请于列宁，放了许多文学家和知识分子，斯大林时代，他保住晚节，没有留下歌功颂德的文字，没有违背良心。\n长篇的力量\n写长篇，要考强大的人格力量，极深厚的功底。哈代，陀氏，曹雪芹，哲学，史学，文学的修养，深刻。德国人的耳朵和头脑特别灵，法国人的眼睛嘴唇特别灵（善美善爱），俄国人，有一颗心，有伟大的道德力量。\n人要靠人爱，此外没有希望。人到教堂，或养猫狗，不过想从猫狗或从神，得到一点爱的感觉。真正的同情，应该来自人，给予人，俄国文学的同情心，特别大。\n中国，和世界不同步，中国不会浪漫，唯美，给唐宋人浪漫，唯美去了。写实倒是有过了，但鲁迅，茅盾，巴金，才不及陀氏，托氏高，鲁迅之为鲁迅，他是受益于俄国文学的影响，写好了短篇小说，他的古典文学修养也一流，但他接受的有限，成就有有限。鲁迅的诗和哲学的底子不够，写不成长篇\n丹麦篇\n小孩是善恶不分的，野蛮的，胡来的，安徒生有这个东西，他用心肠写作\n爱尔兰篇\n爱尔兰民族是世界上最具童心的民族（海涅常写小妖魔，小精灵），心灵诚恳，对超自然的力量，比别族强烈。爱尔兰早期文学都以神怪为渊源，成了传统，古代传说可分为三系，一，神话系，二，红枝系，三，芬尼亚系\n\n神话系，讲诸神冲突，故事纷乱，主角巨大，唯美形象，性格粗鲁轻率，不定型，比较原始。\n红枝系，也成英雄系，故事大约发生在七八世纪，情节优美，故事较有条理，有结构\n芬尼亚系，后于红枝系两百年，主要人物一对父子，他俩是武士，又是诗人，是一群芬尼亚武士的中心。\n\n\n这三系的传奇最初是韵文，后来加进散文\n\n科学技术高明，不等于文明高明，文明应该是指精神道德的高度，文化应该是指心灵智慧的创造。\n叶慈所谓贵族政治，是出于概念，一厢情愿，马克思以为工人阶级是当然的统治阶级，也是一厢情愿，出于概念。\n大思想家最有意思的是他们的短句，而不是他们的体系。明白社会科学不成为其科学，再去观察分析人，倒每有真知灼见。\n中国篇\n何谓昆曲，指以昆山的腔调唱出的戏曲。当时有北曲，南曲，一度南曲伴奏仅用弦索，唱北方的官腔。后改革者出，入笛，笙，琵琶等各种乐器，他活跃于昆山，昆山腔由他倡扬得名。\n二十世纪初期世界文学\n二十世纪的名家自己更不熟悉，课本上摘录的都是老作家，导致笔记都无关文学了，稍有羞愧。\n世界上的书可分两大类，一类宜深读，一类宜浅读。尼采的书宜深读，你浅读，骄傲，自大狂。深读，读出一个自己来。《道德经》若浅读，就会讲谋略，深读，会炼成思想上的内家功夫。\n当十九世纪快结束时，世界各国知识分子都对现实不满，精神苦闷，消沉，悲哀，所谓世纪末的悲哀，中老年知识分子退回内心，守住自我，通称个人主义。年轻知识分子喜欢标新立异，倾向无政府主义，巴金，许杰，在当时都属于这一类。\n到了三四十年代，因为反法西斯，文学又出现转入现实主义的流派，有的入党，有的放弃个人主义。\n\n法西斯不是超人哲学，是反文化的，要毁灭世界。凯撒，拿破仑是英雄，希特勒，墨索里尼是暴徒。对英雄，可以成败论得失，也可以不论成败与得失，对于暴徒无话可说，打倒，消灭，根治。\n\n垮掉的一代\n垮掉的一代，发生在五十年代，二战后出现这一代，名称国际通用。在英国被称为“愤怒的一代”，德国叫做“返回家园的一代”，日本叫”太阳族“，叫垮掉的一代，是在美国。\n其实是大战的后遗症，是人性崩溃的普遍现象，是外向的社会性流氓行为，内向的自我性流氓行为的并发症，既破坏社会，又残害自己。主要是文学青年，对既成的文明深恶痛绝，新的文明又没有，广义上的没有家教，胡乱反抗。\n\n中国，苏联都用唯物史观，阶级分析，批判垮掉的一代，存在公式化的问题\n\n存在主义\n二战前，现代派文学受的是叔本华，尼采，伯格森哲学影响，二战后，悲观气息又起，存在主义应运而生。\n\n存在主义并无新意，是大战后青年人没有心思去细读叔本华，尼采，伯格森的经典，存在主义是前三者思想的通俗化，平民化，抄近路，正好合了战后青年的胃口。\n\n叔本华认为生存意志是万物之源，理性是管不住的，是佛家思想的欧化，且说了一半。他讲的是佛家讲的“人间苦”，另一半，清净，超脱，叔本华不讲，他的哲学，不讲救世这一套。人生无常，欲望不能满足，没有多大新意，古印度，波斯，中国的诗文，早已讲得透彻，而且东方人以自己的方式得到快乐。欲望固然是匹野马，而高超的骑手，驰骋如意，叔本华本人就很长寿。\n\n被引用很多，消极悲观，不可取\n\n尼采早期是叔本华的信徒，后来反对叔本华，悟到叔本华的生命意志不符他的想法–权力意志。由此产生超人哲学，法西斯也利用他的思想做武器，给人洗脑占领心智。尼采是入世的，所以他疯狂，庄子佯狂，但他是出世的，佯狂是为了自保，尼采不知自保。\n叔本华的悲观主义，尼采的超人哲学，是一种高贵的欣赏品，一种美味的滋补品，但存在主义是实用的救济品。\n所以不要宣传悲观主义，可以宣传存在主义，不要忘记存在主义产生的年代，二次大战先后牵涉六十多个国家，世界人口五分之四卷入战火，数以千万计的死者伤者，精神文化的遗产被摧毁。而存在主义同期，中国知识分子如何？抗战刚结束，大家忙于重建家园，我所看到的，没有人思考根本的彻底性的问题，有种的，去延安，没种的，参加国民党所谓的“戡乱”救国，既不去延安，也不去戡乱的，就在时代边缘跑革命的龙套，跑得很起劲，木心当时就是这样。中国当时没有思想家。\n《存在主义是一种人道主义》观点是：人是自由的，没有上帝，没有先验性，没有客观规律，人就是他自己造成的。\n平民性的哲学\n伯格森和佛洛依德两位是平民性的，深得人心，影响广泛。\n佛洛依德对大家都有好处，对心理学，医学，文学，娱乐圈有好处，对警察破案，也有好处。他的性学说，以偏概全，又要解释一切，只这么一说，好，说一切，不好。\n木心说他要是活在二十世纪三十年代，不好，至少驳不倒唯物辩证法，会和鲁迅先生吵，到了八九十年代，世界四十多年和平，冷战结束，共产破产，窗明几净，坐下来说，坐下来写。他的观点是不做大成者，要做先驱者，一入流派，就不足观，所谓时髦，就是上当的意思。唯有把叔本华，尼采，伯格森，佛洛依德这四位近代的思想先驱，反反复复弄懂，才可能有所超越。伯格森的哲学，是为了天才写的，为艺术家写的（为艺术家而思考的哲学家）。\n弗洛伊德\n弗洛伊德1895年，和好友布洛伊尔合出一本书《歇斯底里的研究》，奠定精神分析学的基础。凡伟大者，得到一个奇妙的角度，见人所未见。\n超我有两种，一是良心，一是自我理想。良心，是世世代代道德积累沉淀下来，几乎成本能，自我理想，是我要成为怎样一个人。\n天才的潜意识和性欲特别强，天才的自我超我，也要特别强。\n弗洛伊德有两重错误，一，为说明他的理论，强拉文学名著附会，二，他对两文学主角的想法，是卑污的。一切爱都以性欲为基础，也不对，最高贵的爱，完全不涉性欲。弗洛伊德的艺术是“本能宣泄说”。可是世上小人多，弗洛伊德的学说大为流行，二十世纪实在是个平民恶俗的世纪，谁把伟大神圣的东西拉下去，搞臭，大家就鼓掌。\n荣格生在现代，现代心理学多以他的理论为说，故名气很大。弗洛伊德学说，运用到艺术上来，是有点显著效果。而荣格的学说对艺术家来说就大大不够了\n进化论与乐观主义\n进化论，乐观主义，都是要骗人，研究宇宙，世界，必然涉及衰退，毁灭，必然导致悲观主义。文学家的乐观主义是糊涂，政客的乐观主义是欺骗，商人的乐观主义是既糊涂，又欺骗。\n历史上几次文艺复兴，包括中国的贞观开元，俄国普希金到托尔斯泰，都是自身力量充沛，不存鄙吝之心，自己弄自己一套，不搞打倒别人那一套。\n马克思的问题\n马克思不适合做哲学家，他是个经济学家，一个乐观自信的进化论者。进化论者为什么不说太阳越来越年轻？海水空气变得越来越甜美？有营养？说穿了，尼采的超人也还是进化论。回味韩非子的寓言：郑人买履，宁信度，毋信足。萨特宁可相信马克思主义的这个“度”，不相信存在主义这个“足” ---- 宗教，哲学，都是这一类“度”。\n马克思宣称过去的哲学是解释世界，他的哲学是想改造世界，迷惑多少人。这个世界被解释对了吗 ---- 无产阶级被消费社会溶解了。\n明于析物力，陋于知人心，这是马克思理论的要害。\n科学的发展也出乎马克思预料，他是书斋里的政客。但资本主义是个不好的制度，它是没有最高理想的，没有目标的，永远是以经济衰退/经济复兴这套循环。\n唯二的文学笔记\n卡夫卡\n卡夫卡手法是很好，写的朦胧，但笔法很肯定，再看下去，发现他是个寓言。寓言宜短不宜长，寓言一长，读着读着，读者已经悟了，到后来，大悟没有了，分散了，卡夫卡上了自己的当。\n南美文学\n《百年孤独》那么厚一本书，写马孔多地方一个布恩迪亚家族七代人的遭遇，这种雄心，很可贵。这本书，讲讲可以，去读，太闷热，我吃过墨西哥菜，太多了，吃不下。\n木心的哲学大纲\n一个人有才华，有能力，一时艰难，总会被赏识重用，这是规律；但是世上多有才能不受重用的人，被埋没，被糟蹋了，这是命运。事物有它的规律，可是事物变化，又是命运支配。\n老子思考过，结果是没有结果。他说：“天网恢恢，疏而不漏”。这是规律，他又说:“天地不仁以万物为刍狗”，这是命运，《道德经》是这么二元的，即命运又规律，一会儿解释命运，一会儿解释规律。\n\n其实讲规律，就是乐观主义，讲命运，就是悲观主义。\n\n《道德经》偏重讲规律，但老子是上智，他始终知道，规律背后，有命运在冷笑。\n中国的《易经》，也很可悲，它认为命运是有规律的，索性去研究命运，以为找到命运的规律，便可趋吉避凶，但事情哪有那么便宜。精通《易经》的人，而弄到走投无路，自身不保的，可多。刘基，精通却死于非命。胡兰成，也懂《易经》，做汉奸，后来流亡客死。\n事物的细节是规律性的，事物的整体是命运性的。\n\n木心和亚里士多德抬杠，他说：大自然从不徒劳。我主张，在细节上，是这样，但整体上，大自然整个儿徒劳（细节上讲，动物，植物，都是有目的的）\n\n老庄的空灵是讲实用的空灵，是高层次的“活命哲学”（《易经》也是活命哲学，《诗经》是苦命的悲叹）。\n时代的旁观\n个人遭遇时代，有人手舞足蹈，有人直接介入，我以为，遭遇大事要先退开，退开，可以观察。有的是人投入。\n\n木心说他看鲁迅杂文，痛快；授课的学生们看，快而不痛，到下一代，不痛不快，灯塔在动，高度不高，其间不过一百年。\n\n一些零散金句\n知识分子对快速变化的社会，感到困扰，要反抗，又无力，因此悲观绝望，所谓当时文学艺术上的未来主义，实在是虚无主义，个人主义，他们渴望破坏，渴望新的境界。\n乱世，有天才降生。文艺就灿烂光华，反历史唯物论，乱世激起人的深思，慷慨，激情。\n没有品性上的丰满，知识就是伪装。\n脑子要用，越用越灵，还要多记，越记越精彩。\n\n从中年的意义一书中，也有这种生物学上的观点，脑子要用哦，不然自然就终结你\n\n追求绝对真实的人，不能享受相对真实。意思是说，他什么都享受不到，斯大林昏倒后，没有人进来救他。\n落后地区，不开化地区，一个杰出的人物，都要从精深的学历做起，可是强大的民族，法国，意大利，一个有才华的人不必什么学历，就成功。\n金钱和健康一样，一个健美男子，天天躺在床上，有什么用？有钱，要会用。\n文学与其它艺术\n\n\n文学家，最好是青年时代有点经历，颠颠倒倒，中年晚年平静下来，好好写。可是音乐家，画家，舞蹈家，不必吃这些苦，一个画家不必经历一次大战，也能画出立体派，这一点，文学家吃苦了。\n\n\n文字不要去模仿音乐，文字至多是快跑，慢跑，纵跳，缓步，凝止，音乐是飞翔的，但音乐没有两只脚，停不下来，一停就死。\n\n\n艺术家唯一可靠的是直觉，可是莫扎特的直觉，只有莫扎特有。越是上乘的画，越重直觉。说起来，绘画凭视觉，看一张画的整体感，则全靠直觉。伦勃朗，塞尚，远远望去就是伦勃朗，就是塞尚，这不是直觉吗？以直觉把握美，对后来的艺术家影响莫大。\n\n\n艺术家逃艺术，是世界性的，达芬奇最要逃，《蒙娜丽莎》画了四年，其实逃了四年。\n\n\n曹雪芹聪明，抽掉他的时代，他本能懂得时空必须自由，大观园在南京，北京？他不让你弄清楚，莎士比亚对他的时代，毫不关心，他最杰出的几部作品，都不写他的当代。\n\n\n东西方差异\n西方一切归于神，中国一切归于自然。\n日本人是经济动物，中国人是政治动物，中国的政治经济，有希望，哲学艺术的希望很低，儒家意识形态深深控制着中国人的灵魂，集体潜意识是这样的，总想要找一个依靠，真正的思想家完全独立，超党派，木心说中国没有，他不关心中国哲学，艺术，思想界的争论\n\n但其实毛，邓就很独立\n\n中国\n孔子说，交友交三种：友直友谅友多闻。\n\n不谦虚的说，我觉得自己就属于这种，正直诚信知识广博\n\n中国有人家里不养鸡，不养狗，一遇到事，鸡飞狗跳。\n方言\n北京话，使北京人的日子好过而不好过。上海话，使上海人永远永远不能博大精深。北京话是头头是道，可是凭这种话，日子就能过得好？上海人，是语言快过思想。\n佛教\n禅宗的悟，本也是天才的事，许多人也学禅，硬参，苦，有的人有了疯子，有人做了骗子。\n佛到中国和老庄结合，才大行其道，佛道两家当时通婚，不分的。\n后记\n讲课与聊天究竟不通，自上世纪五十年代木心在上海高桥做过几年中学教师，此后数十年再没教过书，起初几堂课，谈希腊罗马，谈诗经，他可能有些生疏而过于郑重了，时或在解读故事或长句中结巴，绊住，后来他说，头几课讲完，透不过气来，两三课后，他恢复了平素聊天的闲适而松动，越讲到后来，越是收放自如。陈丹青的这段也回应了木心自己的课堂自评。\n或许下册是更个人化的，上册的文学名人们根深蒂固，希望自己有可能多拜读一些穿越时空的经典文学。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文学"]},{"title":"时间去哪了","url":"/%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%8E%BB%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%86.html","content":"\n总体印象\n好忙好忙，现在的人比以前的人忙。可是明明现在不管工作还是娱乐，效率都是越来越高，你咋觉得时间越来越紧？\n点解\n在发达国家，有种有意思的纯理论说法，收入增长比寿命增长来得快，人之所以越来越忙，是因为花钱这件事，你还得花时间去花才行 (时间花完了，钱还没花完)\n\n调研对象基于美国 – 跟50年前相比，人们的平均预期寿命只增加了15%，而收入是那时的三倍。中国这个烈度更大。\n\n\n\n贫富差距使它呈现出更复杂的面目\n\n\n穷忙穷忙 vs 富人才是真忙\n\n\n\n一件东西的价值由其机会成本决定，富人的悠闲机会成本更高\n\n\n时间用于玩，富人也必须玩得更有金钱密度，忙做头发，看展览，听歌剧，看着悠闲，其实很忙\n\n\n电视/视频（时间密集而资金不密集）基本都被穷人看了，富人看电视就没空花钱了。在这方面，爱看电视的特朗普算是个另类\n\n穷人时间价值低，所以看电视时间比富人多，美国人平均每天看电视2小时40分，穷人每天看4小时，考虑到穷富人数比，可能美国的电视基本都被穷人看了，特朗普传言每天看4个小时福克斯电视台，还真是特立独行\n\n\n\n\n\n时间的开销和节省\n每个人的时间罐子都一样大，从幸福感上讲都应该先装鹅卵石，再装细沙。\n开销\n正常人时间分到4大类工作中：工作的事、家庭的事、个人的事、休闲的事\n\n\n工作的事儿：时间用于其它三项的前提，研究省时间的首要目的，就是想把时间省下来用在工作上。工作时间没有朝九晚五（六）那么长，有时候名义在工作，其实是假装在工作。\n\n\n家庭的事儿：耗时大户是家务和照顾孩子。\n\n\n休闲的事儿：第一耗时大户是看电视/刷手机。\n\n\n个人的事儿：第一耗时大户是睡觉，睡觉时间也是有贫富差距的。穷人平均比富人多睡近一个小时，睡觉这档子事，只花时间不花钱。\n\n\n省时：天花板低\n当你把一天到晚做的各种事花了多少时间不厌其详地记下来，一年到头，周而复始，你就会有本时间日记，十几年下来，你可能会发现节省空间没你想象的大。省时间难，难在花时间这事有天然瓶颈，不能有人替你睡觉看电视和吃饭，替你照顾孩子还得有收入和住房条件，要么条件不够要么不愿意。这条路走不太通。\n\n也是基于跟踪上千个美国人十几年的结果\n\n转念：提升质量\n什么事花时间最多，就把什么事的体验做好！\n睡好即躺赢\n用时第一大户是睡觉，所以，你要搞张舒服的床，舒服的枕头，手机莫放床头，发光体都关掉，有噪音的，装上双层隔音玻璃，搞上耳塞。若眼罩有助睡眠，那就整上，还不行，该用安眠药就用，只要能帮你睡得好的事情，需要做你就做。睡觉是最值得的消费，收益最高的投资。睡觉平均占用你人生的1/3，只要睡得好，人生就已躺赢。\n休闲要主动\n用时第二大户是看电视/刷手机，真想看你就看，但得把握住关键的一条: 不要被动要主动\n不能被动的有什么看什么，而是主动的看，只看自己想了解的内容和节目。被动使你沉迷，主动才有掌握，就算时间还是花了那么多，至少体验不同\n家务事不爱尽量甩\n你喜欢做，挺好，否则能外包尽量外包，能自动化尽量自动化，起码把一两件最讨厌的事外包是最佳策略，甩不掉的话也可安排和快乐的事情一起做，如做家务同时听你喜欢的内容。\n照顾孩子要尽心\n几乎很少碰见后悔生育的父母。但统计数据摆在那，平均而言，人们在有孩子后幸福感下降，到孩子成人离家后幸福感才回升。所以对此只有一个办法：若原本将照顾孩子当麻烦，必须学会骗自己，相信它是享受。18年漫漫长路，不骗骗自己怎么过得去？\n时间管理就是痛苦管理\n非自控出错，态度问题\n刷朋友圈，刷微博，是我们管理痛苦的手段，驱动人的不是趋利避害，就是避害。做一切事情都是为了逃避痛苦，干扰嘛，是我们自找的，以便从眼下的痛苦里逃离。\n举例，一天拿起79次手机，醒着的时候每小时5次，每12分钟一次，打断了专注，将已经很有限的时间切割成碎片，其实这已经是高自律的一批人的表现了。有人一天拿起200次，约等于清醒时每4分钟拿起一次，生活是碎的不能再碎了。\n碰到这种情况，你别实践到另一个方向：晚睡对身体不好，所以我一般选择通宵\n达成心流\n\nMental Flow : 人们在专注进行某行为时所表现的心理状态，表现为抗拒中断，高度的兴奋和充实感\n\n创造性的工作离不开这类高质量的状态，艺术类工作如此，研发工作亦然。专注可提升效率，能浇灌幸福感。哪怕是休闲阶段，心不在焉也更不容易体验到快乐。\n行动的专注高效，也受自信状态的影响。自信对完成任务很关键，「多锻炼+帮助他人」 可有助于增强自信，但要注意这里的帮助说的是举手之劳的场景。\n提升心理能量和生活质量，第一步就是要减少拿起手机的次数，第二步可多感受敬意：对大自然的敬畏，对人类创造力和体力的敬意（欣赏画作，体育竞技），感受敬意的目的是识别琐碎摒除杂念，在这些过程中，你会发现很多琐碎的事情都不重要了，更有判断能力\n兼论拖延症\n有种解释是因为对自己有完美主义的要求，超出自己的要求（听了这个是不是好受了很多），所以拖延症在好人身上也很常见。进入现代这会进一步加剧，因为很多目的都是强加的。你认为它是症，不好治不也得治么。\n\n让创造性的任务变成机械式的劳动，例如不喜欢背书，就变成抄书，这可能是唯一能治的硬招 – 勤劳练习+分而治之，说的不好听点勤能补拙，别想一口吃个胖子。还有一种叫做无负担习惯策略，简单到不可能失败的自我管理法则，例如每天1个俯卧撑，每天只读1页书。\n让种子飞一会，就算不做，也要放在心中酝酿，当拖不下去的时候，最高效率解决战斗（有此经历，但仍不推荐），个中滋味当然不好受，不是最高招\n群体组织中立Flag，靠虚荣心压你往前，也不是什么绝招\n不同年龄对时间刻度的认知和规划也是不同的，看开点。要么你人格成熟来应对，毕竟拖延也是上境界的磨炼，要么loser比例在人类社会的比例基本不变，你不过是其中一员而已，看你自我的要求了\n\n拖延并不是你懒，而是你的恐惧。人在面对困难时都会恐惧，面对恐惧都会选择拖延，你所见到的自律，除了对目标的渴望，就是面对任务有焚膏继晷（gui，燃烧蜡烛直到第二天日光出現）的决心，减少即将去做的时间（包括刷牙洗脸吃早饭本质都是在拖延）\n还有一种对付拖延症的高级方法，那就是一天只做一件事。那么你就不会受计划制定后到开始前，那种煎熬的痛苦。多个任务并行做和单个任务逐个做，前者的效率可能是后者的1/4。\n鸟瞰时间的安排\n何为鸟瞰时间，就是拉长尺度来看，从几年或几十年的角度思考人生。从实践落地上：\n\n第一种是写自己的悼词\n第二种是采访敬仰的长者，在采访长者时，有两个问题必须问：\n\n回顾人生，你最自豪的事情是什么？\n回顾人生，你最遗憾的事情是什么？\n\n\n\n从《时间贫困》作者收集弟子的采访汇总看，76%的长者最自豪的事情都说是家庭，与伴侣建立了良好的关系并抚养孩子健康成长。除了家庭张除外，还有少部分的人把坚持走自己的路和职业成就看作最自豪的事情；在最遗憾的事情里，有 38%的人提到没有花足够的时间陪伴家人，18%的人提到没有充分开发自己在学习和工作中的潜能，还有 7%的人提到失败的关系，例如兄弟姐妹关系破裂。\n结合这些采访，不难得出和前面类似的结论，和家人的关系非常重要，影响人生的整体满意度，所以在规划时间时，优先把时间留给陪伴家人是一个优选的策略。\n自由时光并非越长越好\n生活满意度和每天的自由可支配时间有关，在 2~5 个小时间最为宜\n\n上班族：2.5个小时左右的空闲时间\n无业者：4.5小时\n\n自由时刻不可或缺，但并非越长越好。通常高过 5 个小时，无所事事感又会袭上心头，少于 2 个小时会降低人们的幸福感。\n\n同样来自于对美国人的调研，有一定的同感，但不一定完全适用于国人\n\n当代城市人，多数有“空白时间恐惧症” –  难享受无所事事的快乐\n结果的推论\n\n无业者心理状态更差（不被需要），闲得更久，满足感却没有比工作者高多少\n工作者的2.5小时可能处在愉悦的“有人陪伴”状态中，效用顶无业者4个钟\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["效率"]},{"title":"晒神兽=晒自己","url":"/%E6%99%92%E7%A5%9E%E5%85%BD=%E6%99%92%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1.html","content":"\n四年级分水岭\n孩子小的时候都大差不差，都可爱肉嘟嘟的，睡觉吃饭拉屎玩闹，第一次说话，第一次写字，第一次去上幼儿园哭的鼻子冒泡。这时孩子展现出来的是幼儿最自然，最没社会性的一面，是本能驱动的各种行为和情绪，也是最能引起周围人普遍关注和共鸣的经历。\n小孩主要负责无知和可爱，越无知越可爱，上学了就主要看 KPI 了。四年级以前，蠢萌还算是萌，10 岁以后就不再萌了，长相开始显露出来，再也不是以前可可爱爱的模样，有些甚至开始使得父母难以接受，基因也开始真正表达，不管是长相还是智商，家长都无法自欺欺人了，无法像刚出生那样戴滤镜了。多数家长终于认识到自己的娃，就是个普通小孩。\n晒大龄娃=晒自己\n四年级以上，孩子逐渐褪去了本能驱动的生活模式，转而进入社会竞争，身份上已一定程度脱离幼儿的范畴。这时晒出的是什么状态呢？\n长相暴露了父母的遗传基因，情绪暴露了家庭的亲子氛围，生活暴露了家庭的生活质量，学习更能直观暴露了家庭的教育能力和资源，这个阶段及以后的孩子其实就是家庭的镜子：能从孩子的外貌，穿着，表情，性格，入学的学校，成绩高低，是否学习特长等发现这个家庭的真实状态。\n此时愿意晒的父母其实晒的是自己，又有多少人能给孩子无忧无虑精致殷实的生活呢？显而易见这样的家庭在任何环境和社交圈里都是稀缺的存在（忽略一些优秀到能晒的稀缺家庭，反倒不敢晒），结合要尊重孩子的隐私，所以朋友圈晒大龄神兽的就少了。\n\n搞笑看神兽是如何进化的\n\n幼儿园：为什么\n小学生：凭什么\n初中生：你懂什么\n高中生：你什么也不是\n大学生：你给点钱，给点钱\n毕业后：别管我\n恋爱后：要你管\n生孩后：你来管\n\n平常心看成长\n孩子随着年龄的增长，逐渐消失在父母的朋友圈，不仅有父母的原因，也有孩子的原因。孩子的成长和变化是一辈子的事情，要以平常心看待孩子的成长。\n最好的教育永远是自我教育，父母应该帮助孩子实现自我觉醒和自我教育。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"智能驾驶的中国故事","url":"/%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E9%A9%BE%E9%A9%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B.html","content":"\n经典的中国故事，硅谷诞生酷炫吊炸天的高科技，中国不着急，让美国人搞去。我们的特长是搞钱，不见兔子不撒鹰。\n后发国家最初并不注重创新，因为富裕国家已开发好了必要的技术，且技术可以被授权使用或借来使用。\n激光雷达的人民战争\n激光雷达就是这么一个典型的中国故事：美国创新，中国等着，直到有了商业前景，利用中国供应链 + 场景 + 工程师红利 + 牛马加班，冲进去，摧枯拉朽，高端科技品干成白菜价，几万美元被卷成几千人民币，卷死了欧美品牌。\n\n\n2019-2020年，中国新能源车市场突然爆发，中国力量排山倒海而来，傲慢且缓慢的欧美公司，让你见识一下人民战争的汪洋大海。\n\n\n2019年行业龙头禾赛科技激光雷达平均售价12w人民币，2023年变成了3.2k人民币，还有品牌已经干到千元附近。全球车载激光雷达市占率23年排名前五厂商中，前三都是中国车企，加起来有80%\n\n\n\n人类用视觉可行，一部分是因为人类有一颗超强眼睛+超越所有物种的大脑，另一部分是人类没有其它敏锐的传感器了。\n但从人工智能的大力奇迹演化路径上，纯视觉方案才有足够的优质训练数据。\n\n几类雷达的区别\n\n\n\n类型\n\n作用\n优势\n劣势\n\n\n\n\n超声波雷达\n机械波，需要传播介质\n通过超声波发射装置向外发出超声波，再利用接收器接收反射回来的超声波时间差来测算距离。主要用在倒车、自动泊车上\n成本低\n探测距离短\n\n\n毫米波雷达\n电磁波\n把无线电波（雷达波/电磁波）发射出去，根据接收回波与发送之间的时间差测得目标位置距离数据。主要用于高速巡航车距保持功能。穿透雾、烟、灰尘的能力强，可以在糟糕的天气中探测。\n穿透能力强，不受恶劣天气（雨、雪、雾、霾）影响，能够全天候工作。适用于交通监控、安防，以及作为自动驾驶系统中的补充传感器\n毫米波雷达的探测距离受到频段损耗的直接制约（想要探测的远，就必须使用高频段雷达），也无法感知行人（行人反射波较弱），并且对周边所有障碍物无法进行精准的建模（对高处物体如标识牌，小物体如井盖、锥桶识别效果不佳）\n\n\n激光雷达\n光波也即电磁波\n发射的电磁波是一条直线，主要以光粒子（红外线）发射为主要方法。通过测量激光脉冲的往返时间来确定距离和绘制周围环境的3D点云图\n探测精度非常高，能够实现高精度的定位和环境建模\n受环境影响较大，光束受遮挡后就不能正常使用，因此无法在雨雪雾霾天，沙尘暴等恶劣天气中开启。也不能穿透固体\n\n\n\n端到端的模型趋势\n一种宣发的说法：一个无限接近人类司机的自动驾驶系统约需要 10 亿行代码，以人力编写规则，几乎是不可能完成的任务。但端到端模型几乎能实现几乎无上限的规则。从 24 年 5 月 16 日，零一汽车披露其端到端自动驾驶系统的进展，宣称系统复杂度降低 90%，研发成本下降 80%，标注任务减少 90%[3]。\n\n\n输入：大部分自动驾驶汽车都装载了相机、Lidar、毫米波雷达等各类传感器，采集这些传感器的数据，输入深度学习系统即可。\n输出: 可以直接输出转向角、油门、刹车等控制信号，也可以先输出轨迹再结合不同的车辆动力学模型，将轨迹转为转向角、油门、刹车等控制信号\n\n为了降低训练难度，端到端大模型也需要进行拆分，一般分为两个阶段：\n\n一个阶段解决感知问题（看懂世界-输入为各类 corner case 视频+高清采集数据，通过多模态技术将视觉信号与文本信号对齐输出）\n一个阶段解决认知问题（驾驶决策-输入为感知结果+驾驶行为，这一阶段可通过量产车进行大规模定向采集，训练结果类比于捧哏的生成式模型，做续写作文预测任务）\n\n人类驾驶汽车不仅依赖历史感知结果，还更多依赖对未来的判断，老司机往往对未来几秒的交通环境有非常好的预判\n\n\n\n如此有两个好处：\n\n可先独立训练，再进行联合 finetue，降低训练难度\n不同阶段可采用不同的数据，大幅降低数据成本\n\n自特斯拉的FSD V12（没有程序员写一行代码来识别道路、行人等概念，全部交给了神经网络自己思考。V12的C++代码只有2000行，而V11有30万行）放出来后，自24年国内的厂商开始转向营销端到端（End to End）智驾了，也开始集中资源开始猛攻。\n\nFSD V12一出场, 国家又开始对特斯拉这条鲇鱼网开一面，在备案落地上开始大开绿灯\n\n\n\nFSD的硬件平台由特斯拉自主研发，芯片采用三星14纳米工艺制造，集成了多个CPU、GPU和神经处理单元，算力高达144TOPS。相比较国产车采用较多的高通8155，FSD的硬件平台比8155的GPU和NPU算力和高很多，8155采用7nm制程，一种说法是其GPU算力8T FLOPS，NPU算力4TOPS\n\n\n马斯克发现，当输入超过100w个视频后，基于神经网络的自动驾驶系统才开始变现良好。这里真正的门槛就是算力+数据。随着自动驾驶技术的不断进步，自动驾驶可能会迎来ChatGPT时刻，只有投身到智驾的公司，才能进入到科技企业的定位，从不断向制造业车企靠拢的估值泥沼中摆脱出来。\n\n上车难题\n云端系统为了处理数以百万计的 clips，一般都采用复杂的网络结构，巨大的网络参数（10 亿或更多），再用成千上万张 A100 进行训练，但车端往往只有很低的算力，功耗也不能高，却要求极高的帧率，极低的延迟，这导致只有经过大规模量化剪枝等提效手段后才有可能上车运行。\n这些最难的部分，特斯拉还没公开谈过是如何解决的。\n当前国内智能驾驶走在前面的华为乾崑ADS3.0和小鹏XNGP，应该都还不是全端到端的解决方案，乾崑ADS3.0实现了决策规划的模型化[3]，一方面是监管的原因，一方面车载的算力可能也不支持，但相信一旦有同行趟出路来，以上面的中国优势加产业锚定的举国之力，必然又是迎头赶上，且迎头痛击国际同行，就请时间来见证。\n数据的难题\n\n端到端范式下想要自动驾驶识别一些 corner case的处理方式，需要大量数据进行训练，远超过了原始的分任务策略范式。例如想要自动驾驶识别塑料袋是可以压过去的，需要喂数据（传统的占用网络遇到塑料袋时，往往会认为空间被占用），而原来可以人为设计一个塑料袋可以压过去的驾驶策略。塑料袋，泡沫等软性材质是可以压过去的。交警的手势优先级高于红绿灯，救护车是要避让的，这些都属于人类社会的世界知识，都是人类经过长期学习后获得的，一种拿来主义借力方式是引入大语言模型辅助，相当于副驾坐一位见多识广的陪练告知你 corner case 如何处理，但 LLM 的幻觉在车规级来看还非常严重，仍然风险巨大\n采集到的数据绝大部分驾驶行为都是雷同的，大部分都是直行，能用的数据少得可怜。平衡数据的长尾（有效性）和数据的规模（成本）是个问题。除了从海量 clips 中提取有效的特征，从哪些维度统计数据的分布，都需要大量的工作。\n\n为了解决长尾数据问题，业界也在尝试用 AIGC 技术构造数据\n\n\n数据泛化问题，不同车型传感器配置差异巨大，采集的数据往往难以复用，国内车企普遍车型众多，最后可能采了一堆数据放那里没法使用，看起来是数据资产，实际都是存储成本。\n\n\n数据可能占到端到端自动驾驶开发80%以上的研发成本\n\n纯视觉的问题\n视觉解决方案在远端的障碍物如果跟背景颜色相近的话，容易出现识别误差。如果墙上车上有车辆的图案，会出现误差，如果碰到团雾，会出现误差，这些都会造成安全隐患。国内最喜欢吹的 FSD，特斯拉内部邮件也承认了目前只能算L2级。L2级意味着驾驶员必须时刻准备接管转向、制动或加速以确保安全。\n\n国内安全标准很高，多数是融合解决方案，激光雷达点云配合双目 800w 像素摄像头，再加上 3-5 毫米波雷达，加全车 11 个超声波雷达，能在全维度识别固体、气体障碍物，安全角度上远远超过纯视觉方案。自动驾驶是中国必须走在前面的事情，中国牵头做了全球自动驾驶的测试标准，叫 ISO34505，是中国作为联合国自动驾驶工作组副主席的单位来牵头做的，全球大概 20 多个国家参与，主要是中德，中国企业如东风，上汽，比亚迪，蔚来在里面做了很多工作（蔚来开放了 30w 公里的智驾数据源给工作组）。纯技术的公司是华为和百度参与较多。标准的建立是为全球自动驾驶树立一个通用化的衡量标准，会成为后来各国自动驾驶立法的基础。未来进口和中国出口的车辆都要经过这个非常严苛的测试。\n纯视觉算法，在我们国家的极端测试下，26 台车只有 23%能过，视觉算法比融合激光雷达的整个成功率低 15%左右。中国新能源车的只能驾驶已经远远走在世界前列，中国城市交通复杂程度比美国高 15 倍左右。\n2010 年之前95%国产车都在 10w 块以下，现在国产车为什么做得越来越好，大家都喜欢去选择，老百姓愿意为更好的品质而掏钱。奇瑞的星纪元 ET 在比利时，墨西哥，墨尔本，应政府要求不能低于 75w 人民币的，你不想挣这么多，你必须这样挣，要不然它本土企业卖不了。\n老牌车企的落后\n动力+售后全面超越\n汽车方面速度一直是一个硬指标，打造速度与激情的荷尔蒙设定是豪车的拿手好戏，也是豪华品牌的基础。\n现今豪华车企在三电动技术面前就扛不住了，且绿牌怪瞅着BBA的豪华感累积深厚，直接用科技感即正义的全新美学 + 互联网时代的运营手段把你干碎，从动力硬实力到豪华感服务售后层面的软实力都给你把规则改了，尤其是 智能化吊打 BBA。\n欧洲为啥没落\n**可人家老牌车企这么有钱，就不能也搞电动车? ** 这种问题在传统互联网转移动互联网时期，欧洲的爱立信和诺基亚也同问过。\n从全球领先最终却依然在新技术面前无力回天，要弄懂近20年为什么欧洲出不了超一流科技公司说起：\n\n欧洲太享受和强调劳工权益，且缺少语言和文化的统一，欧洲有27个国家，24种语言，每个国家都有各种严苛法规，扩张阻力太大，风投人才储备技术孵化机构都四分五裂，人才钱都不那么容易流通\n\n中美都是铁板一块，且中美两国人民皆有更强的挣钱意识\n\n\n守和佛导致造出的电动车都平平无奇，续航动力配置还是智能化都被甩在很多中国新能源车后，想赢着实难\n\n今后的格局\n东罗马和西罗马并存，共同卷死世界！\n成长的反思\n端到端之前，基于规则**（rule-based）。这个路线，特别适合中国的工程师红利**，人海战术，堆人处理各种corner case。在裁员和就业难的背景下，HR和猎头针对智驾工程师的挖角，却剑拔弩张，华为，狠角色，大约有7000人规模。另外，小鹏超3000人，比亚迪快速募集 4000 人。正当卷的火热，“端到端”来了，技术路线变了。特斯拉做端到端的团队在200-300人。这路线不堆人，但掀起另一场军备竞赛——数据+算力。2024年底前，马斯克的Dojo 超算中心总算力要提升至 10 万 PFLOPS，中国汽车行业比较领先的，华为的超算中心是3500 PFLOPS，长安1420 PFLOPS，目前是数量级上的差异。但好在以华为为代表的芯片企业正在步步突破半导体的卡脖子问题，NPU 卡自己能生产。\n“卷”，曾经是功大于过，卷出了竞争力，助力了产业升级和突围，但是当中国已经来到这个体量，再卷，就是路径依赖，依赖老方法，一叶障目，就会看不清未来的路。卷到我们的生态底层病了，如今我们想栽创新的苗，但是我们的土壤是病的，这怎么搞？\n\n怎么分配，这就是产业价值观。尤其是大公司，一年下来，核心精力是很有限的。\n\n\n特斯拉，分配给“卖车”这事的核心精力，是有限的，赚钱这事，其实耽误了。按照行业规律，快速多出新车，特斯拉会卖的更好。\n工作重心如老是降本增效，扣硬件成本；卷，勒紧裤腰带奋斗，鞭子抽在自己和伙伴的身上，大家咬牙冲啊。这一套东西，过去是对的，有功的。但是当下，已经是中国突围的障碍。\n\n小业靠自己卷，大业靠伙伴[4]。我们很多企业已经成功到自己当行业带头大哥了，要做的是领导好生态，建立健康的、尊重知识产权的产业价值观，兄弟们都有合理的利润，大家一起帮中国想想，怎么汇集顶级人才。未来比拼的不是人才的数量，而是人才的高度和厚度，高质量发展，新质生产力离不开创新的苗。\n频繁 OTA 在车上不是好事\n有些车主很自豪频繁的 OTA，而我国是禁止频繁的 OTA 的，就是担心车企把一个不成熟的功能放车上拿真实用户去进行采集数据和测试。所以中国的智驾升级没有小版本，大规模更新都是备案推送的。\n参考\n1.易车网 解密端到端背后的数据、算力和AI奇迹 ↩2.CSDN HydraNet—特斯拉自动驾驶强大的人工智能神经网络模型 ↩3.百家号 “端到端”是自动驾驶的曙光吗 ↩4.维科网 “端到端”奇袭：中国内卷到了必须结束的时候 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["行业","AI"]},{"title":"最高级的想象力是不自由的","url":"/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84.html","content":"\n现代认知科学对人类想象力的研究成果：想象力来源于知识。正是理解了事物之间的因果关系知识后，儿童的想象力才成为可能。\n人能想象自己在天上飞，是因为看到鸟在天上飞。我们比较30年前的科幻电影和现在的，同样描写数百年的未来世界，肯定是现在的更像。古老的科幻电影里，打视频电话，可能演着一只手还拿着听筒。未来世界的飞船控制室布满键盘和指示灯，你不在现实世界给他们发明一个触摸屏，专门负责想象的电影制作人就忘不了键盘。\n举个国人的例子，古代神侠小说暗器几乎没有出现，而现在武打书里本本都有暗器，为什么古人想不到暗器，因为暗器是近代小说家受到手枪的启发想象出来的。\n想象力的等级\n对于科幻小说和童话故事这种想象力，也存在两个等级。\nwhat if\n\n初级想象力就是日常生活中玩&quot;what if&quot;，如老鼠会说话、能驾驶玩具飞机。舒克贝塔的想象力就是这个级别的。整天问“what if”的人，可以写出一大堆童话故事来，这些故事讲的其实不是老鼠，而是披着老鼠外衣的人，讲的是小朋友自己的故事，而小朋友自己的故事，成不了世界名著。这种“what if”想象力是完全自由的，没人会追问这个问题，因为没太多人关心这个故事。\nself-consistent\n要写一个《指环王》或《哈利波特》这样有很多人关心的故事来，所需要的是另一个等级的想象力，一种不自由的想象力。\n写幻想的世界名著，你必须构建一个完全自恰（self-consistent）的想象世界。如阿凡达的潘多拉星为什么有些山悬浮–矿石还有常温超导物质且星球的磁场紊乱，而人类之所以来这个星球就是为了这种物质，星球磁场紊乱，也是该星球的动物有一定感应能力的原因。而磁场紊乱，是因为附近有几颗别的行星，这可以在天空中看到…几件事须能相互解释，是一个完备的逻辑系统。\n《指环王》和《哈利波特》亦是如此，除了世界观自成体系外，这两本书还有一个特点：就是对欧洲神话要有相当深的研究，各种魔法，种族，道具不能胡思乱想，必须符合一定的传统。《西游记》也是这方面的代表。\n最高级的想象力\n最高级的想象力因为是不自由的，难度才大。这种意义上上讲，中国导演拍不出《阿凡达》，缺的不是自由，而是这种不自由的超难脑力和物力。\n自由想象力崇拜背后是顿悟崇拜，这种思想认为一般人终日被自己的知识所束缚，而一旦跳出这个束缚，就能取得重大突破。\n《费曼物理讲义》一小节中叫做《相对论与哲学家》。相对论流行后，哲学家跳出来说“坐标是相对的，这难道不是最自然的哲学要求吗，这我们早就知道了“，可是如果你告诉他们光速在所有坐标系不变，他们就会目瞪口呆。所以，真正的科学家其实比”想象家“更有想象力，一个理论物理学家可能每天都有无数个怪异的想法，真正的困难不是产生怪异的想法，而是产生对的想法！\n如波尔所言，你的理论的疯狂是不争的事实，但令我们意见不一的关键是：它是否疯狂到有正确的可能。（We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enouch to have a chance of being correct—Niels Bohr）\n记录这么多，可能源于我对国外科幻电影哲学自洽的欣赏，细节的认真。加上若干年前阅读《上帝掷骰子吗》的兴奋与对波粒战争的难忘。\n\n几年前最欣赏的科幻电影《机械公敌》，近期最欣赏的群体英雄电影新版《x-man》1、2。把电影的背景设定到历史中去，如x-man第一部的第一战，对于我这种历史爱好者，有很好的代入感。第二部的逆转未来，同样有不错的历史事件设定及穿越时空效应，x-man的正反哲学设定及常人社会的表现，都合乎理解，跟其它超级英雄电影又不一样，希望后面有更佳的表现。\n\n有价值的想象力特质\n有价值的想象力包含三个特质：\n\n建立在既有知识基础上，而非欲望的基础上\n逻辑自洽，简单点就是自身逻辑推演不会矛盾\n经过有训练的技巧，可以表现为作品\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"材料的力学性能指标","url":"/%E6%9D%90%E6%96%99%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD.html","content":"\n硬度\n材料局部抵抗硬物压入其表面（抵抗外物刺入）的能力称为硬度【抗刮擦、切割、磨损、压痕或穿透的能力】。所讲的硬度，是指物质之间的表面划痕，即较硬物质可以在较软的物质的表面上造成划痕。孰硬孰软，就是看谁能在谁身上“画上画”，而不是看谁能打碎谁。打碎问题就是脆性问题。\n\n已知地球上最硬的金属是铬。\n常温条件下，最硬的合金则是钨钢（硬度还是比金刚石差一点点），这种材料通常被用来制作钻头等切削工具。\n地球上天然存在的最硬的物质是金刚石，也是碳的同素异形体（还有石墨、石墨烯等）。\n\n人造材料中，比钻石、铬、钨钢还硬的物质有很多，比如氮化碳、石墨烯、碳炔，这些超硬的物质通常并不天然存在于自然界中。氮化碳和钻石的硬度旗鼓相当。石墨烯，大家都很熟悉，它的硬度比钻石还硬。\n\n脆性\n脆性—表示物质受拉力或冲击时容易破裂破碎的性质【脆性是指材料在外力（如拉伸冲击等）作用下发生断裂，仅发生很小变形的特性】,比如铸铁的脆性大,甚至跌落地上亦会破裂。脆性与硬度有密切关系,硬度高的材料通常脆性亦大。材料抗拉强度低于屈服强度下，材料呈现脆性，这是相对塑性而言，塑性指的是材料发生永久变形的能力，一般用A-延伸率和Z断面收缩率表征。\n强度&amp;塑性\n\n\n强度是指材料可以承受的最大力。\n\n\n塑性是指材料能变形到最大的百分比。\n\n\n例如，一根钢筋最大能承受100Mpa的力，即强度为100Mpa，如果在100Mpa的力下变形20%而断裂，则其塑性为20%。\n有些材料在低温下会变脆，而有些金属材料在长时间使用过程中会产生金属疲劳：易变形和破裂，此时硬度，延展性，韧性就不足，带来航空领域的危险。\n韧性\n韧性=强度+塑性\n韧性是指材料从受力到断裂所吸收的能量，使材料断裂所消耗的能量越多，韧性越好。 能量的消耗意味着对系统外的材料做功，这表明力和位移（变形）的存在。\n\n\n承受应力的能力以强度为特征\n\n\n变形能力以塑性为特征。 所以\n\n\n韧性材料具有良好的塑性。\n弹性\n是物质受外力变形,当外力消除之后又恢复其原有形状的一种性质\n延性\n又称柔软性，是物质受外力永久变形而不碎裂的性质,即可以拉成细丝而不断裂的性质。例如某些金属可抽拉成细线。\n延性最好的是铂。\n展性\n又称可锻性，是物质接受锤锻或滚轧而变形时不致破裂的一种性质，即可以压成片状而不断裂的性质。\n展性最好的是金。\n一些对立相生关系\n硬度-脆性\n硬度比较高的物体，通常韧性比较低，脆性大。比如钻石和玻璃虽然硬度很高，但却很容易碎。\n强度-塑性\n一般来说，一种材料的强度和塑性不能同时满足，它们就像一枚硬币的两面：强度的增加通常会导致塑性的降低。 研究表明，金属材料的塑性变形通常是通过位错滑移来实现的。 在加工硬化过程中，金属发生塑性变形，晶粒滑移，位错缠结，导致晶粒伸长、断裂和纤维化，防止进一步变形和随之而来的失效和断裂。\n材料强度越高，塑性一般较差。常言道，过刚易折。\n强度+硬度\n从工程角度讲，特定材料的强度一般指材料的屈服强度。总体上材料的强度越高，抵抗塑性变形能力越强，硬度越高，在特定条件下存在一定的线性关系。\n参考\n1.瑞士防止检验公司 一篇文章帮你了解材料的力学性能强度硬度韧性脆性 ↩2.化学自习室 脆性与硬度 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["物理"]},{"title":"架构师与SQALE","url":"/%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%88%E4%B8%8ESQALE.html","content":"\nSQALE质量模型\n\nSoftware Quality Assessment based on Lifecycle Expectations 目标管理软件中源代码的质量\n\n如下对于过程质量和结果质量的分类并没有绝对的官方出处，更多是一种直觉的分类\n过程质量\n\nMaintainability\nChangeability\nTestability\nReusability\n\n结果质量\n\nReliability\nEffciency\nSecurity\n\n互联网中架构更喜欢讨论的是结果质量，的确有其挑战，但过程控制是结果控制的非取巧不二法门\n\nSQALE度量内在质量\n整合了ISO-25010标准与代码规范，目标是客观，准确，可复制和自动化的方式为评估软件应用程序的源代码提供支持，为管理技术负债提供一种有效的方法\n\nSonar code quality testing essential,戏称开发人员7宗罪\n\n\n编码规范：名字是最短的咒，各位法师常乱施法\n潜在的Bug：可能在最坏的情况下出问题的代码，及存在安全漏洞的代码\n文档和注释：过少，过多（亦对信息量也是冲销），过时\n重复代码：违反了Don’t Repeat Yourself 原则\n复杂度：结构复杂（如圈复杂度高），难以理解，测试，维护\n测试覆盖率：单元测试，尤其是针对复杂代码的覆盖是否足够\n设计与架构：是否高内聚，低耦合，依赖最少\n\n从可测性，可读性，可理解性，容变性 等代码可维护的质量属性来衡量代码质量，代码质量不好最直接的受害者是开发者或组织本身\n\n同样是代码质量问题，重复代码和注释过多危害肯定不一样，圈复杂度为10和20的方法相比，危害和修改难度差别也大，不能直接用问题的数量来衡量质量，需要更精细合理的量化度量方法，这时你考虑解决问题的人力投入耗时这个维度，根据不同的项目组是可以根据自己的生产力自定义配置（开发语言不同，默认值也不尽相同）\n\nSonarQube，CoderGears，SQURE等商用代码扫描工具都将SQALE作为参照标准，但同时也在做自己的扬弃或简化\n落地好架构的要求\n\n\n方向清晰：具有一定的前瞻性，了解技术的发展方向拥抱应用之；理解业务，最好领先业务半年（因为架构升级-- 朝向解决复杂问题–往往带来业务阵痛），这也要求架构师对业务理解和预判有更高的要求\n\n\n方案细致：除了宏观上层设计，还要关注关键细节，给多种方案选型予以综合评估\n\n\n方法实用：以解决问题为目标，不搞大而空\n\n\n多方利益均衡：康威定律（1967）：软件架构无法超然跳脱组织架构\n\n\n架构合理性目标\n\n软件系统的架构将系统描述为计算机组件与组件之间的交互。包含了组成系统的结构元素及它们的接口，协作的问题决策，不仅注重软件本身的结构和行为，还注重其他特性：易于使用，功能性，性能，弹性，重用，可理解性，经济和技术限制和权衡，以及美学。\n\n以高效、稳定、安全 三大目标衡量架构的合理性。\n\n追求的是面向维护的设计;\nKISS，不仅仅是逻辑简单，只有简单的体系，才能经得起进化\n\n需求角度\n\n优雅可复用地解决当下业务问题\n前瞻设计：能在未来一段时间都优雅可复用满足业务\n\n非需求角度\n\n稳定指标：可用性，包括各种测试覆盖（单元测试、自动化测试、黑百盒、故障注入等），都是为了这个目标\n高效\n\n文档化\n可扩展：软件设计秉承低耦合理念，在合理的地方抽象，方便功能更改，新增和运用技术的迭代\n高复用\n\n\n安全：数据安全\n\n持续架构的5原则\n\n产品思维，而非项目思维来设计架构\n聚焦质量属性，而不仅仅是功能性需求\n在绝对必要的时候再做设计决策\n面向变化来设计架构，将系统分解设计成可独立替代的松耦合模块集合。Reduce the risk of change, Leverage the power of small\n为构建、测试、部署和运营来设计架构\n\n架构和架构师的价值\n\n\n通过保障系统质量属性来降本增效\n\n\n排首第一武器是抽象能力，接着还有分层，分治和演化\n\n《模型思考者》中提及模型是对现实世界问题的抽象，模型思考着需针对问题，看穿客观事务本质，选取或构建合适模型，推导出问题最优解\n架构师的职责和模型思考者类似，定义问题并识别方向，创建/选择/调整架构，找到最合适的方法，推进团队解决问题\n\n\n\n架构质量的优劣\n\n取决于系统在应对变化时所需投入的研发成本，隔离变化\n用Martin Fowler的话来说，重要任务之一：消除不可逆的决策\n\n\n\n高质量低成本直观看违背常理，但高质量=低成本\n通过业内在增量功能迭代和研发投入时间的增长曲线分析上发现，基于低质量的架构，在数周内就显现出研发效率的降低，而高质量架构要好得多\n\n\n程序员最难任务排位\npie showData\n    title 程序员最难任务\n    \"命名\" : 49\n    \"解释我的工作\" : 15\n    \"工作量评估\" : 10\n    \"团队协作\" : 8\n    \"接手别人的代码\" : 8\n    \"实现不认可的功能\" : 3\n    \"写文档\" : 2\n    \"写测试\" : 2\n    \"设计方案\" : 2\n着眼长期成本\n架构规范的价值是降低长期成本，涉及组织惯例和公共建设，文档，流程，文化\n如何消解程序员的头疼问题？\n\n\n命名: 下定义是一种概念能力，抽象能力的磨炼，锻炼存在平时之中。如小说《阴阳师》中所言，名字是最短的咒。\n\n\n工作量评估：WBS，掌握工具\n\n\n别人的代码：代码规范\n\n\n写文档：常规环节，代码即文档\n\n\n不同周期的发力方向\n短期\n代码开发，联调测试，部署\n长期\n页面变更，业务流程/规则变更，基础实施变更，依赖包升级，etc\n榜样\n\nAmazon的领域API标准化\n\n\n所有团队的模块都要通过Service Interface方式将其数据和功能开放出来\n团队间程序模块的信息通信，都需要通过这些接口\n除开Service Interface的通信形式一概不允许：不能直接链结别的程序（如外部团队的动态库），不能直接读取其它团队的数据库，不能使用共享内存模式，不能使用别人模块的后门\n所有的Service Interface，毫无例外，都必须从骨到皮设计成能对外开放的。即：团队必须做好规划，以便未来把接口开放给全世界的程序员\n不这样做的人会被炒鱿鱼！\n\n如此这般的的好处之一是：领域限界清晰，没有意外，你的团队控制着源代码和数据，在单一的限界上下文中工作\n\n工程师文化\n质量\n\n它是一个高度概括的词汇，是一个结果。质量是工程师的reputation，不仅是在职场。\n换个土话，可以解释为“靠谱”\n\n事情做成离不开靠谱的人，聪明的人只能聊聊天\n\n\n工程师一直以做事为己任，视出品为生命，是我们对成事的渴望，对自己孜孜向上的推进\n\n务实\n\n不消多说，工程师一直在解决问题的路上，眉眼为问题而动，养成的自然是以解决问题为目标，不搞假大空的作风\n但在评估需求时，存在普遍乐观主义的倾向。本质是因为需求信息不够详尽。\n\n慢思考模式是惰性的，通过经验可训练强化自己的评估模式\n\n\n\n效率\n\n效率就是生命，减少中断进入心流状态，充分将人脑效能提速起来。\n抓重点：做好数据和用户分析\n自动化：更多的自动化，更少的多人协作\n降成本：去除支持性工作，提高组件质量和重用，持续改善组织文化\n良好的分层分治设计，也是我们应对效率怪兽的解药\n\n革新\n\n在小革新的积累下，也在涌动大的革新，以解决结构性问题/难题，旧的世界的打破需要技术突破，技术突破有些时候是跳跃性的，但离不开原来渐近式的铺垫\n\n\n跳跃性解决结构性难题\n渐进性解决日常问题\n\n事务性动作 vs 革新成长 存在对时间的争夺，故在效率方面下功夫无可回避！\n角色划分\n现在架构师划分的角色也很细，顾名思义，数据架构师，（运维）云架构师，安全架构师这些都比较容易让人好理解其定位。还有几个不那么容易概念区分的架构师角色，特在此记录说明一下。\n\n企业架构师：企业架构师的职责包括协助创建和执行信息技术架构路线图，创建支持业务目标的企业基础设施。\n\n分析技术架构领域的当前趋势并提供建议\n评估应用程序是否符合企业标准和业务标准\n确定与组织变更相关的架构的生存能力\n就治理模型和框架等领域的最佳实践对技术人员进行培训\n\n\n业务架构师（解决方案架构师）：专门评估业务需求，并将它们转换为解决方案、产品或服务。通常花费大部分时间来协调正在进行的活动，从概念定义到需求的分析和实现，最后转移到IT操作。\n\n在设计和构建阶段管理应用程序开发团队\n为初级员工提供培训和指导\n与应用程序开发人员协作以实现业务目标\n\n\n领域架构师–应用架构师：领域架构师是在其专业领域具有深入知识的专家。数据架构师，安全架构师也属于领域架构师\n\n何为工作能力？\n\n不局限于架构师角色\n\n工作能力即为 将大目标分解为可执行的小任务的能力，任务是实现结果的过程。\n知无涯和能力发展\n\n各种岗位都是要不断构建自己的知识体系，将经验沉淀总结为方法，这方面贯穿着宏观思维能力，抽象思维能力和钻研能力\n\n\n宏观思维就是考虑整体，站在更高层次上看问题，需要有意的跳出细节看整体，找到关键重点再深入细节\n软件项目永远不变的就是变化，抽象（简化、关注要素、隐藏细节）是应对变化的主要手段，要求看得更远，将现有和未来可能的业务场景综合起来进行分析，做出相对稳定的抽象，预留架构的扩展性\n钻研能力要求具备深入细节的能力，攻坚克难\n\n\n专业的方向可以有选择性，并不是所有技术都要深入到细节层面\n\n\n用源码学习很多时候并不是一个特别高效的学习过程，API学习就是一种挺高效的途径\nAWS的API，J2EE的API，这些吵架吵出来的API设计很漂亮，通过API学习你可以把它的领域想透了，不信你自己写一个，一比较很容易是这也忘了（不对），那个也忘了（不对）\n\n\n还有一个误区\n\n都喜欢钻研计算机科学知识，唯“底层”为王，深入钻研细节要权衡好ROI，对于业务部门技术人员而言，在软件设计方法和软件工程的专业知识实际上也是应花力气钻研的，这些基础知识同样是该领域的底层\n技术债（TechnicalDebts）\n概念最早出现在1992年，本义指开发人员为加速软件开发，在应采用最佳方案时做了妥协，改用短期能加速开发的方案，从而在未来给自己带来额外开发负担。\n本金 : 定义为修复代码质量所需消耗的人力资源估值\n\n例如针对java而言，修复一个圈复杂度为15的方法需一个开发人员15分钟的时间\n\n通常借钱是有利息的，技术债也一样，存在利滚利的情况。有些违规项马上修复要10分钟，若放一段时间后，也许就需要20分钟甚至更多时间来修复（代码细节的知识随时间流逝，及破窗效应造成代码问题加速恶化等原因），因为利息的存在，不及时偿还的话，会在未来呈现非线性增长，造成始料不及的损失\n负债率：偿还债务所需耗费的资源，除以重写所有代码预估耗费的资源。在扫描工具的实现中，分母是通过代码量和开发生产力水平计算得出，其中生产力是一个配置项。\n技术债的排序\n技术债务对每个问题设置了规则等级，面对那么多技术债务，如何按优先级排序你的工作呢？\n且看技术债务金字塔\n\nReusability\nPortability\nMaintainability（非结构化语句goto，switch外的break，文件注释率&lt;35%，循环语句中使用continue，文件行数&gt;1000, 不一致的缩进，变量大小写风格）\nSecurity\nEffciency（残留吴用的变量，类继承太深&gt;7）\nChangeability（滥用public，类复杂性&gt;100）\nReliability（未初始化变量使用，条件循环语句中使用赋值符号）\nTestability（方法参数列表庞大&gt;6, 需独立测试路径过多 &gt; 11）\n\n这个金字塔仅是一个比喻，自底向上的看，每个特性建立在它下面的基础上，可测试性是底部，因为它是最重要的，首先要确保你的应用程序是可测试的，接着确保它的可靠性，可变性，有效性等等\n\n\nmaintainability及以上，更偏长期债务（通常在转移维护团队时才得以察觉显现）\n\n\n二者间可视作中期债务\n\n\nReliability及以下，更偏短期债务\n\n\nSecurity和Reliability属于关键债务，按比喻来说是债务利息中最高的部分，多见逻辑错误或异常管理不善等问题，直接影响业务，而其它问题有时并不会直接影响业务。\n\n\n技术债规避举例\n某组织挑拣的4条规则\n\nSource files should not have any duplicated blocks\nClasses should not becoupled to too many other classes\nMethods should not be too complex\nControl flow statements if for while switch and try should not be nested too deeply\n\n个人看法这几条规则，有三条都跟复杂度有关，抓本质的能力有待提升\n代码是资产也是债务\n\nJoshua Bloch(布洛赫)：java.math.assertions、 Collections Framework、《Effective Java》作者\n\nJava架构师 Joshua Bloch曾说：随着年龄增长，其意识到 编程不仅仅是让程序运行而已，它是创造一个利于理解，可维护的，高效的作品。一般来说，干净整洁的代码即使运行不快，也可以很容易让它变快。让正确的程序更快，要比让快速的程序正确容易得多。\n\n最小化人们理解它所需要的时间是比最小化代码行数更好的度量方法\n别为了获得一丁点 ”性能“ 就牺牲掉整洁，一流的编译器优化通常会自动把短代码转换成内联函数，在现代计算机上，函数调用的代价接近于0\n霰弹式修改，是个坏味道\n\n圈复杂度\n\n构造软件有两种方法：一种是简单，明显地没有缺陷，另一种是使其复杂，却没有明显的缺陷。 — 图灵奖得主 tony hoare(霍尔)\n\n有研究表明，圈复杂度大于10的方法存在很大的出错风险\n10以下圈复杂度的方法，有bug修复不成功率在5%，20~30的复杂度，不成功率就来到了20%，大于50，修复不成功率来到40%，接近100的复杂度，有60%的几率出现修复失败\n应该将复杂的计算分解成具有内聚性的步骤，令大尺度的运算更具可读性\n性能 != 效率\n效率意味着最短路径，性能意味着以跑代走。就算你用博尔特的速度，虽然高性能，但可能没选择最优路径\n影响程序运行时间的一个重要原因是内存中的数据的布局和结构，布局不优良，会造成要花费很多时间获取数据，同时会造成指令冗余\n金玉良言\n最好维护的代码就是没有代码，好的程序员代码产量是负的，他们通过减少代码来增加功能\n回顾收尾\n好的代码就像好的笑话一样，它不需要解释（Good code is like a good joke：it needs no explanation）。\n有编码经验的人对代码有一定的鉴赏力，能凭感觉给出代码好坏的主观评价，这方面的反例就是意大利面条式代码（spaghetti [ spəˈgeti ] code）\n\n意面式代码：非结构化和难以维护的源代码的代称，有一个复杂和纠结的控制结构，程序流在概念上有如意大利面，扭曲和纠结。\n国内圈有更震撼的翻译：屎山代码\n\n意面/屎山代码产生的原因\n由于程序员在开发过程中缺乏良好的设计和规划：从而导致逻辑混乱、耦合度高、难以理解和修改，给后续开发人员带来了极大的成本。\n不仅局限于代码难读，环境差异，废弃的代码，过时/临时的逻辑，依赖和组件引入及锁片，都在助力屎山代码的形成。\n公认的幽默标准 ： 每分钟爆粗数量，强调了代码的可读易懂有多么感人和基础\n\n重构~精进\n\nRefactor，Be Better\n\n当已有代码存在问题时，程序员应主动进行重构，优化代码结构和逻辑（对一个东西最好的批评，是做出新东西替代它）\n精神误区\n得过且过、无能为力、推到重来\n\n面对现实的挑战和过去的包袱，不能站出来的成不了架构师，没有勇气承担的成不了架构师\n\n动手解决\n\n\n理解不干净背后的东西，勇于承担、拒绝破窗、养成日常清洁（边打扫边生活）的习惯\n\n\n和产品达成共识，解决“大石头”的同时干掉“小石头”，慢即是快\n\n\n要干净的不仅仅是代码，善于用减法的思路去对待产品\n\n\n使用工具，提升效率。君子性非异也，善假于物也。\n\n\n代码助手\n常规项目程序员时间分解\npie showData\n    title 常规迭代程序员时间开销\n    \"理解需求\" : 8.4\n    \"理解整体架构设计并做详细设计\" : 5.8\n    \"画图/写文档\" : 6.8\n    \"理解关联代码\" : 11.2\n    \"参考内部规范和已有基建\" : 7.7\n    \"查找类似代码或及技术方案\" : 6.4\n    \"修改/新增代码\" : 9.8\n    \"运行调试\" : 7.2\n    \"写单元测试\" : 8.7\n    \"功能联调测试\" : 6.5\n    \"准备发布物料\" : 3.1\n    \"协作/被动沟通\" : 11.4\n    \"其它/摸鱼\":7\n\n编码准备+编码调试=查找方案+编码+调试+单测=32.1%\n\n开发阶段约占版本周期中的60%，测试约占20%，产品阶段10%，架构师设计5%，运维5%。项目经理贯穿消耗10%。在研发阶段，代码大模型能着力的部分占32.1%，再加成项目周期的60%占比，对整体项目的提升上限不超过20%=32.1%*60%=19.26%\nLLM 改变软件开发模式，软件工程进入 3.0 时代\n\n\n\n\n人月神话\n软件工程 1.01968年 NATO 会议，软件工程学科诞生\n软件工程 2.02001年 Snowbird 会议，《敏捷软件开发宣言》发布\n软件工程3.02023年 chatGPT 发布\n\n\n\n\n开发模式\n提升协同效率\n1970 瀑布模式\n2001敏捷开发2009 DevOps2015 MLOps\n延续\n\n\n架构模式\n分解复杂度\n1970 年半单体1990年模块化\n1998 服务化2012 微服务化2014 ServerLess\n延续CloundNative --&gt; AI Native\n\n\n重大挑战举例\n软件规模\n几十万行\n百万 --&gt; 千万 --&gt; 亿级\n精英与模型协同作业：代码责任田 10 万行 $\\rightarrow$ 50 万行软件生命周期成本：开发 vs 维护 从 3:7 $\\rightarrow$  5:5\n\n\n\nAI擅长的事情\n交给AI擅长的事情，接受AI的不完美（放大优势，规避缺点，心态开放，接受短板）\n\n全库检索与总结\n代码解释与解读\n局部重构与改写\n不熟悉的编程语言\n算法与通用逻辑\n\nAI对软件工程师的影响\n真正的价值创造来自于弥补其它人决策盲区，你之所以被认为是架构师，是因为你能看到别人看不到的东西。\n在整个软件开发过程中，越是偏向个体研发的能力，受到的冲击就越大。换句话说，那些依赖与单兵作战的工作，更容易被自动化工具和智能系统所取代。越往下，即越偏向于对整个开发场景的控制和管理，这些工作受到的冲击相对较小。\n架构活动中最大的成本是人力和时间，这两个成本在大模型世代都会发生巨大变化\n---\nconfig:\n  theme: base\n  themeVariables:\n    radar:\n    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性\n\n跨域架构师\n\n分工选型：前后端、业务/中台，开源//自建\n长期思考：领域扩展、规模跨度、技术壁垒\n外部环境：不确定性、竞争格局、监管合规\n\nLLM效能提升的正确姿势\n\n广泛提升个体效能，让没有很好prompt能力的人也能受益，并内置到企业现有开发环境和工具链中，成为开发基础设施有机组成部分\n嵌入于研发全生命周期，CI/CD流程，项目管理工具等；优化上下游知识共享。\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["架构","软件工程","研发质效"]},{"title":"母亲回忆录--上山下乡","url":"/%E6%AF%8D%E4%BA%B2%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95--%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%8B%E4%B9%A1.html","content":"\n上山下乡\n毛主席的最新指示发表了：“要把自己初中，高中，大学毕业的子女送到乡下去，接受贫下中农的再教育，很有必要。”全国各地的这些学生都有了归处，那就是“上山下乡”，到最艰苦的地方去。\n1968年不知几月份，人民日报刊登了一篇文章，标题是：“我们也有两只手，不在城里吃闲饭”。街道居委会通知开会学习了，让这些没有正当职业的居民，动员报名，不报名者，也不让你做工，全家人的生活就成了问题，逼你走上山下乡这条路。\n\n所以1968年的冬天，我们全家六口人都下放到老塆（管塘大队，管塘生产队）。大姐1966年首批下乡青年下放的，还有我哥嫂一家也要下放，当时我嫂快怀孕快生了，就说等生了再去就没走。我们家刚到老塆，第二天就下起了鹅毛大雪，那年雪下的真大呀，直接封门，不下乡也被饿死，一场大雪才算结束了整个下放户的运动，隔壁的罗传模农村的来车接，板车走到西街头，雪下的睁不开眼，路都被下得看不清，全是一片白，不敢往前走，又转回头，拉回来了。这场雪下得没有走的再也不来催啦，我哥嫂就不用再操心下放了。那年冬天她生下了大女儿永玲，生活的来源，就靠那个下放的安置费，后来从我份那里扣除。\n挣工分\n从城镇下放到农村，干农活挣工分，我也不上学了，父亲弱劳力4.5分，二姐女头等分7分，我二等分6.5分（那年我14岁了），国友9岁，腊云还不到5岁，冬闲二姐一人上班，到了春天，就有活干了，挑粪，担泥塘。男劳力，犁田，耙地，播种。到了夏天，不论白天和黑夜，除了回家吃饭外，大部分的时间就在田间，脸朝泥土背朝天。那时农村都没有表，天不亮就看犁弯星，白天看太阳，阴天就估谱。插秧和秋收，这两季节最忙，夜晚还休息不好，蚊子，臭虱子睡着了给你咬醒，二姐咬醒了坐在床上哭，蛮老三在南边公路段上班，说他那里供销社卖的有蚊帐，十几元一床，我家买了两床，臭虱子怎么也搞不绝，最后想个办法，用电灯的柴油往床缝隙里倒，臭虱子怕柴油总算给它消灭了。\n冬腊月若是闲下来，我要去给老大推车，我嫂因为要照护孩子，老大拉车没有驴子（很多拉车的都用驴帮忙）。\n有学不能上\n我们大队初中班就一个班，班里只有4个女生，老师很想让我到他那里上学，记得有一次，我挑着稻谷去大队打米，被老师看见后，赶快跑到我面前，劝我来上学，在他们眼里，像我这大的年龄，不上学有点可惜，一生有干不完的活，我跟他讲：“谢谢你的好意，我也很想上，只因我家没有劳动力，再上学生产队里人会有意见的”，老师感到很失望的离开了。\n虽然我只上了六年学，在那个年代基本文化还算够用，不论是读书还是看报，还是算账都难不倒我，秋收分粮食，会计算账总会叫我帮忙，那时算账都是用珠算，没有计算器，加减乘，除法不用，基本都是用乘法，农村有些妇女说：“老嫌，你要不是肚里有些黑墨水，怎么会坐在这里呢？”，我反驳说道：“我也不是干活干不动，你以为我想坐在这里吗？”，她们就哑口无言啦。\n干了几年农活，不论是犁田耙地，栽秧，割稻子，砍柴，除草，打草绕子，捆稻草，样样都会，很多妇女不会的，我都会，我的特点就是接受事物快，用心，好学。\n与机遇擦身而过\n五七干校\n我们塆离尤店很近，翻过大坝不远就到了，那里有个工程兵五七干校，经常会演露天电影，无论再累，一听说有露天电影，年青的小伙对队长说：“今天夜晚不要加班了，我们到部队看电影去”，队长有时也会采纳，因为他家也有孩子嘛，五七干校那里还有个小卖部，我们也经常去那里买东西，一来二往都熟悉了，跟塆的伙伴一块，往那里一站，干校的人就爱问我们是哪个塆的，叫什么，吓得我总是站在别人后面，伙伴嘴快说我是她塆下放的。\n去北京的机会\n我小时候很胆小，有一次我去干校买东西，被一位老首长看见了，他喊住我，让我明天早晨八点给他买两只老母鸡送来，他要回北京任职。第二天清晨我在自家鸡圈里逮了两只，怕去晚了，我连早饭没吃就送来了，给我钱，我没要，我要走，他不让走，问我去过信阳没有，我答：“没有”。他说坐这车一块去信阳玩玩，完了再坐这车一块回去。我没吱声，跟她一块上了吉普车，以前从没坐过车，还以为很舒服，谁知道心里七上八下难受死了，想吐，憋着，直到车开到信阳部队招待所，一停车，我赶快下来跑到一边去吐，只因早晨没吃饭也没喝水，只吐了一点黄胆水出来，歇了一会又上车，到地区招待所吃中午饭，午餐很丰盛，李首长把好吃的都往我碗里夹，让我多吃点。吃完饭，休息一会，李首长问我：”想去当兵吗，想去跟我们一块走吧，我们部队女兵就要你这大年纪的“，见我不吱声，他又接着说：”上周塆有位下乡知青，老来跟我讲要去当兵，她已经二十多岁了，部队女兵只要十来岁的，她已经超龄了，她有个弟弟脚是个六趾，可以当兵他又不去“。我心里想没说，你说的这俩人我都认识，我们以前是门对门的邻居，她叫周成秀，弟弟叫周成安，姐弟俩下放到上周塆，太熟悉啦。他又说：”你怎么不愿意去当兵呢？“，见我不吱声，又说：”不想当兵也行，我一封信就可以叫你进工厂“。我还是不搭腔，我在想：”我怎么不想去当兵呢？有这么好的机会这可是做梦也不敢想的“，我有我的苦衷，我怕真去了，塆上的人知道了，传到大队，他们去搞外调，拿着介绍信找到部队，说我父亲是个份子，那时又讲政治，再给你搞回来，还不够丢人的，这就是我不敢答应的理由。\n上火车的时间快到了，吉普车又开到了火车站，他让我上了火车看看卧铺，他讲：”夜晚我就睡在这里，明天就到了北京”，我在火车上还看到了一个外国女人，快下火车前，他还跟我说：“跟我们一块走吧”，真实情况我也不敢讲，不知从何说起，没办法，他只好交待送他走来的随从兵给我安全的送回家–尤店工程兵五七干校，到了干校，下了车我回到家，天已经黑了。我给家里人讲，干校首长再三让我跟他一块走，去北京当兵，我没敢答应，父母没吱声，大姐遗憾地对我说：“你真傻，要是我就去，在哪里找这么好的机会”。\n谨小慎微左右命运\n你以为我想去吗，到时候大队干部再去给你搞回来，说父亲是个份子，到那时候还不够丢人的，北周塆和喻老四下放一个队的周姓人家，孩子还没我大，不知怎么和队里发生口角，随口说了一句：“骑驴看唱本，走着瞧”。他的意思是，农村能待就待，不好就回城，可是他们把这句话的意思想歪了，把他扣了一个上纲上线的帽子，说他是想变天，因为他成分是地主，一个小孩弄到各生产队斗争，说是想翻天变账，想回到解放前，欺压百姓，作威作福。\n解放前什么样他也没见过，这不是胡说吗？当年他们全家都搬回了城，可怜那孩子，回城没工作，拉起了板车也不愿在那里受气，这就是我不敢去北京的原因。（小周后来转知青，分在供销社）\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["回忆录"]},{"title":"母亲回忆录--童年","url":"/%E6%AF%8D%E4%BA%B2%E5%9B%9E%E5%BF%86%E5%BD%95--%E7%AB%A5%E5%B9%B4.html","content":"\n康家大院\n我出身在河南罗山的一个小县城里，那时的小县城以十字街为中心，东到电影院，西到粮食局，南到跃进门，北到县一中，以这往外都属于农村（现叫郊区）\n我家住在西街，上有父母亲，兄弟姐妹六人。老大是个哥，1944年出生，起名叫世有，老二大姐，1948年出生起名叫康毛，老三三姐，1952年出身，起名二毛，我排行老四，1954年出生，又是个女孩，起名叫嫌毛，把给别人，又没人要，肯定是嫌弃哟，老五是个弟弟，1959年出生，起名叫国有，那时正赶上过粮食关，几家的粮食供应他一人，精心的喂养，才算活了下来。那时很多人都被饿死了。1963年腊月，我又来了个老妹，起名叫够毛，上户口时，那人可能文化浅，写不到那个字，写成了个康狗毛，后来邻居老奶奶说：“叫什么够毛，我孙女冬月出生叫冬云，你这是腊月出生的就叫腊云吧”。\n一家八口人，就靠我父亲做杂货生意维持生活，母亲是家庭妇女，清理家务很有一套，父母都不识字，在这种困难情况下，还让我们每个孩子上学，不能当新社会的文盲，读个高小（小学）毕业，大哥，大姐，都下学做临工来补贴家庭生活，每个孩子都要做些力所能及的活（二姐除外），比如：上街到处窜着捡烟头，打石子，捡庄稼，挑土方等等，只要能换来钱，什么活都做，童年真是太苦了，不是我们一家街邻的孩子都是这样。\n\n初入学\n1961年那年我7岁，去县直幼儿园报名上学，妈妈领着我和二姐，因为二姐数数不张嘴，费了很长时间才数了五十个数，老师一生气，喊下一位，临到我一口气数了一百多，颜色都认全，问什么都能对答如流，抬榜出来了，我被录取了，没有二姐的名。妈妈说：“二姐大些，让她上“，所以我俩就换了个学名，那时都呼小名，没人喊大名，换个人谁也不知道。\n1962年，我和街邻同伴一起到西街完小报名，上一年级，那年我八岁，我很聪明，老师教什么，一教就会，拼音，认字，造句不在话下，考试语文总是满分，数学几乎也是一样，一年级当个副班长，二年级任学习委员，学习委员负责收作业，收完之后送到办公室，有一次送作业到办公室，几个老师正在谈论我，有个老师问：”这就是康模珍呀！“，不知老师为什么在说我，放下作业本我就走了，记得有一次，西完学校的美术老师调到电影院画漫画，我和街邻的同伴一块去看解放电影，什么叫解放电影？就是电影快结束了，不守门了，那天正赶上施老师守门，我以为他不认识我，我往前一站，他就叫我的名字，康模珍进去，那时的人老实，给我吓得赶快往回跑，从那以后，我再也不去看解放电影啦。\n辛苦童年\n1963年底，我哥结婚了，因为家里人多，后来就分家，住在后院三间屋里，那时城里人都没有正当职业，不是当木匠，就是学泥瓦匠，再不就是拉板车，或做临工，不知工作去哪里找，也从没人开后门，也找不到门，我除了上学外，还得给我哥推车子，因为大哥小时候身体差，干拉车活有些吃力，父亲怕他拉不动，总是安排我帮她推车，因为我好叫嘛。记得又一次，天还不亮，我妈就把我叫起床说：”你哥到子路卖枣子，路上坎多怕拉不上去，你去给他推车去，可怜一个十岁多一点的孩子，四十八里路哇，别说还推车，就是跟在车后面跑也很够呛，累得我心里直犯嘀咕，还有多远，怎么还没到，好不容易到了子路，集镇上已经上了很多人，找一个地方放好，他卖，称秤，我负责看着不让别人没下钱的就把枣子拿走了。因为我办事尽责，我二姐从来就不干这活，养成了爱干活的习惯，还经常乐意帮助别人，不论在什么地方，或者是放学的路上，看到一个拉车人很吃力，我赶忙跑上去推上一把。拉车人猛感轻松，回头一望是个小孩帮忙，高兴的说声：“谢谢啦！”，我听了也很高兴。这种性格跟随我一生，以现在的话说，送人玫瑰，手有余香。\n我爱看书学习，我上二年级时，就给我父亲写简历，他说，我写，写罢念给他听听，他说：行，免得去求人，还要酬情“。老师见了我父亲总爱说：”康模珍的爸，你女儿上学不用操心，上初中我们老师保送“，父亲听了很是高兴，每年都能拿个”三好学生“奖状回来。二姐每年考试都不及格，开学后再补考，康世有给她起了个名叫”二闷子‘，所以，我这个嫌毛就没有那么讨人嫌了。\n四清运动\n1964年四清运动开始了，工作组驻进了街道，破四旧，立四新，谁家有老式的东西，该砸的砸，该收的收，吃运动饭的人开始整人了。住我隔壁的表叔刘定忠因年轻时不给他妈吃，我父亲打过他，因此，怀恨在心，又嫉妒我父亲的生意好，整我父亲的机会来了。他让他老婆去工作组举报，说我父亲做生意是投机倒把二道商，买了又卖赚老百姓的钱，说我家房子多，都是投机倒把赚的。工作组找我父亲谈话，父亲说：“我做杂货生意是经过工商局批的，有营业执照正当生意，怎么叫投机倒把呢？我每个月都交工商管理费和税费”。把发票和税费都拿给工作组的人看，他们一核算，还没算完都已经上千元了（不知道是多少年的票据）。工作组一气之下，把那些票据都撕碎了，说我父亲不老实，要斗他，让他游街，最后说我们家房子多，要腾出来三间做毛泽东思想大学校，父亲被折磨的没办法，只好商量腾房，不然的话，没完没了。\n哥嫂分家后住在后面，那年哥嫂的孩子一百天突然死掉了（是个女儿，长得也很漂亮），房子太空，嫂子总有些害怕，她也同意，街面上的筒子屋，一分为二，因哥拉车，便于放车住前面，我们六口住在后面（那时大姐做工经常在外），好在妈妈会收拾，房子虽窄，收拾得井井有条。\n文化大革命\n四清运动罢了，1966年史无前例的文化大革命开始了，我们小学生除外，初中生，高中生也不上课，带着红卫兵袖章，到处造反，“革命无罪，造反有理”。\n工人也不怎么上班，“抓革命，促生产”，红卫兵带着袖章，打着红旗，拿着毛主席语录，全国各地跑，吃饭坐车都不要钱，各地都有红卫兵接待站，首先整的就是知识分子，什么知识越多越反动，北京最开始就是揪出文学专家大人物，邓拓，吴晗，廖沫沙，再就是国家副主席刘少奇，说刘少奇的《论共产党修养》一书是本大毒草，紧接着又揪出一个党内最大的走资派邓小平，从中央到地方轰轰烈烈，真是吓人。说你是啥就是啥，说你是白就是白，说你是黑就是黑，没有一点反驳的余地。只要反抗，就没有好果子吃，整死你。\n学生斗老师，工人斗领导，职工斗干部，农村斗成分不好的（地主，富农），有本事的人都会被人整。颠倒黑白。我父亲解放前在联保当了一个月的警卫员，也被这次运动划上一个反革命份子，不接份子书就斗你不罢休，整死你。没法子，只好接受。从此后就成了地，富，反，坏，右份子的一员了。\n文化大革命搞了整整三年，打，砸，抢也没人管，学生不升学，工厂不招工。后来小学六，七，八三个年级一块毕业，那年我六年级也毕业了（1968年结束了我的学生生涯）。初中高中三年没升学，三个年级一块毕业。\n三年没招工，毕业这么多学生怎么办？文化大革命三年，总结是，国民经济倒退了十年，物质非常缺乏，买东西凭票。\n那些吃运动饭的积极份子，我记事，也没落到好。几个人都早早的死掉了，本着实事求是，不能亏良心，亏良心的都会招报应，这是为人的宗旨。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["回忆录"]},{"title":"毕业十年相聚","url":"/%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9B%B8%E8%81%9A.html","content":"\n既抗战胜利70周年假期之际，我们0110班举行了短暂的十年相聚。多数人只待了2天，但因为大家的投入，收获的远超常规上班两天的时间感受。\n与相处四年的同学处在一起，非常亲切，尽管不少人都十年未见，但还是非常的熟悉，加之大家都没啥变化，面貌年轻（但多数都更宽了是肯定的），分开像只在一周前一样。\n城市倒是大变样了，街道口有了一些高架，已经完全不认识。东西两院的校门也变了，虽然多了过街地道，地表上加了广场显得拥挤。住的未来城大酒店为小区房改装，一门两卧都是单独的房间，方便。三位深圳的同学都选择一趟车同时到达，事先也没商量，也是没料到。\n同学的职业分布：\n出国2人，华为7人，银行5人，公务员+事业单位7人，企业9人（创业1人当老板啦），未知5人。单家企业华为真是同学归属的大头，也有单间寝室3位公务员的光荣寝。\n\npie showdata \n   \"出国\": 2\n   \"华为\": 7\n   \"银行\": 5\n   \"公务员+事业单位\": 7\n   \"其它企业\": 8\n   \"创业大老板\":1\n   \"未知\": 5\n第一天\n9.2号提前到了的同学，执意要去户部巷吃早餐，去年回家路经武汉，去过一次，印象不佳。口味和就餐条件包括卫生，都不值得称道。强烈建议耳闻的朋友们别去了。深情拥抱完，我不去留下，晃悠到不远的武大看了一眼，校门改过，进了校门，却再无任何兴趣往里走，毕竟我又不是武大学生，路上吃了个鸡蛋灌饼，很不正宗，怀疑加的肉也不是什么好肉，以后吃这样东西还是尽量少加料，虽然吃不出问题。打道回府碰到同学，就一起回酒店看阅兵了。阅兵实在是无趣，就不谈了。\n校园游园\n酒店门口小馆拼长桌吃饭吃到下午2-3点，换上统一T恤衫，校园游园开始，路过的有些说毕业十年了，还这么年轻。确实，大家不管在家乡的，在外打拼的，都很年轻。在校园里谈论的还是上学的傻事儿，上过课的楼，挂科的重修。一路从西院经工大路走到了鉴湖校区。工大路变化也不小，少了不少店面，没了趣味。鉴3教学楼里满是自习的同学，很恐怖，猜测是考研的大军，我们都不好意思进到教室里去拍照。\n遥望对面的图书城还是那么高大，但是从本地同学口中得知里面已经主体不是卖书了，搞很多档次很低的店铺，卖书不挣钱啊，回想之前的环境真正好啊，碰到的最好的图书售卖环境，没有之一，就算在其它城市的书城或图书馆也没看到更好的图书部署环境，找更好的估计要去国外了。\n住所回访\n摆拍完后，回到入驻4年的公寓看了看。公共场合显得破旧了，向看门的小哥说了点好话让上去了，推门看过寝室，还是老样子，学生们也感觉是老样子。园区的超市还是同样的布局。\n辅导员到访\n夜里聚餐，来了当时的辅导员，头发白了(有些超乎意料)，记性却是很好。大家相聚推杯换盏，跟毕业聚餐差不多，一样的开心，不过没那时喝得多，也不会有人再喝到吐了。酒足饭饱，唱K第二场，两位女同学表现很佳，大家更能放得开了，不像学校那会儿拘谨的不行。\n第二天\n第二天轻松磨山行，武汉挖路堵车厉害。湖心岛吃饭，实惠美味。下午又去了楚河汉街，老国企厂区改造建设出来的。万达电影主题公园里的飞跃湖北观感还是不错的，其他的对于我们成年人吸引力就不大了，更多的是为小朋友准备的。\n最后一晚\n夜里聚餐时，大家去了稻香，茶点和点菜一起来。茶点还是有不少同学不习惯。酒过，有同学洒泪。天各一方，大家的感情更加好了。这是一个可喜的变化，相比较于其它班的聚会，我们的相聚是很成功的。这都得益于在武汉几位同学的热心组织。\n尤其是我们同寝的柏君。柏君是武汉本地人，在校的时候，做事就是很大气得体，心态也是非常好，这还是得益于家教培养的好。让我这个大学之前几乎没出过县城的家伙非常钦佩。其实柏君在这毕业后十年，经历的家庭变动，比我们任何一个同学都大。见他，外在还是那么的豁达。最后一晚，大家饮着啤酒，他讲：人生有八苦，生老病死，爱别离，怨赠会（不喜欢的人总是碰到），求不得，放不下。这几点他都体会过，都已经看得开了。\n展望\n下一个十年，大家经历的会更多，每一个人，都要学会放开，放下。(到了2025年，20年大相聚未能组织起来)\n不用说那么多，这篇文章，也不是为了梳理下什么总结，生活也值得记录。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["日记"]},{"title":"汉字造字的精细","url":"/%E6%B1%89%E5%AD%97%E9%80%A0%E5%AD%97%E7%9A%84%E7%B2%BE%E7%BB%86.html","content":"\n关于水的字\n大水坑：池；小而深：潭；大而深：渊；广而浅：淀；广而深：湖\n湖连湖：泊；泊连泊：泽\n水面涌动：荡；水面微动：漾；水流很急：湍；水流很缓：滞；掀起小浪：波；掀起大浪：澜\n山水分界：涯；两山夹水：涧\n一面临水：滩；两面临水：湾；三面临水：渚（zh$\\check{u}$）；四面临水：洲\n人工开凿：渠；自然形成：溪；溪水汇聚：河；大河相连：江\n关于山/地的字\n \n小土山：丘；大土山：陵；土山统称：阜(f$\\grave{u}$)；\n高而尖的山：峰；高而大的山：岳；高而险的山：嶂；高而陡的山：峭；小而尖的山：峦；四周陡顶端平的山：崮；小而险的山：岘（xi$\\grave{a}$n）；山与山相连：岭；多草木的山：岵（h$\\grave{u}$）；不长草的山：屺（q$\\check{i}$）；\n水中小块陆地：渚；水中大块陆地：洲；水中更大陆地：岛；水边平地：汀(t$\\bar{i}$ng)\n沿河道修的：堤；拦河修筑：坝；控制水流：堰\n山梁山脊：冈；山脚：麓；山腰小道：阪（b$\\check{a}$n）；山陡立的侧面：崖，山岗高地：陇\n两山之间：谷；山脉中断处：陉（x$\\acute{i}$ng）\n两山相对有水：峡；两山相对无水：岬(ji$\\check{a}$)\n关于鬼的字\n\n魑魅魍魉分别是什么妖怪：\n\n魑：类似野兽的怪物，在山林里害人，可理解为山间猛兽变化的妖怪\n魅：老物精，上了年纪的老物件成精。又多指草木成精，所以可理解为山间草木化作的妖怪。\n魍魉：水里的恶鬼\n跋山涉水的危险形象化，就变成了这几个字。\n\n24鬼字旁的字，不是24种鬼，是包含鬼怪，现象，星宿，还有几个是同义通假字\n\n关于建筑的字\n亭：有顶无墙，用于休憩；台：高出地面平整开放，用于观赏，所以有戏台没有戏亭；\n楼：重屋为楼，两层以上带屋的；阁：与楼很像，四面有窗有门（源于南方的干阑式建筑），还有栏杆回廊（外挑平台）供人漫步观景，四敞为阁（楼阁中的四敞就是重点区分），阁的规则更高\n轩：与亭很像，但有窗有屋，一般在水边或高土台之上；榭：临水而建，一部分伸出水面；\n廊：连接两个建筑的通道，有顶棚用于遮阳挡雨；舫：仿船形建筑而成，大多三面临水，一面与陆地相连。\n寓：临时住所才叫寓；室：堂后休憩才叫室，所以登堂入室\n厅&amp;堂：都是聚会议事的大空间，但厅对外，堂对内（家\\族\\理念相同的群体）。如餐厅和食堂。\n房&amp;屋：屋可指多间房的建筑整体，正中为屋，两侧为房。房相对小和私密空间，所以是房事。\n家&amp;庭：都是平头百姓家的建筑，但庭比家要阔，百姓住的叫家，房前有院才叫庭。\n宅&amp;院：都是大户人家的建筑，院比宅应用更广。财主富户住的叫宅，院本指围墙，后连带院内的建筑，更扩展到偏脑力活动的区域。如枢密院，学院。\n府&amp;邸：虽都是官家建筑，但邸比府级别高，高级官员住的才叫邸\n宫&amp;殿：都是帝王家的建筑，但殿是办公场所，宫是居住场所\n根与本的区别\n根：是从草木等植物的形上去认识的，植物生长在地面之下的部分。艮($g\\grave{e}n$,$g\\check{e}n$)的甲骨文字形是一个拱起的后背上一个眼睛，好像是看脚后跟，造字的本意可归纳成身体最下端，对应到植物，最下面的部分就是根。\n\n艮的造字本意很多：回望、向后看、怒目回视，和见（向前看）相反。也可说怒目如刀，所以发展出来了狠，很，狠。又有艮，止也的含义，视而不让。其余含义属于引申变化，或用于小范围，小众领域。\n\n\n本：是在木下部加一指示符号，表明树根位置所在，跟末相对。也可以看作是草木起源于种子。引申为主体，原始等意义。\n美人与佳人\n美：甲骨文字形的本意是人带着漂亮的头饰格外引入注目（头上插着华丽羽毛等头饰的人，看起来好看，被人喜欢），羊大为美是金文小篆变体后的解读。美从本义上是经过修饰后呈现的漂亮状态，可以说仅代表一种客观的审美态度，并不注入个人感情，跟赏玩器皿风景等物件并没什么区别，所以古人称美人戏谑成分大过赞赏成分。\n丽：两只鹿角，也延伸指成对，如伉俪，黄鹂鸟。形容美貌的女子，唐代杜甫就喜欢用丽人\n如何称倾心仰慕和品貌俱佳的女子？佳人！\n仁义的区别\n仁：就是人二，把两个不同的人当成一个人去对待。去掉我与非我的差别，把别人当成自己人一样来看待。\n义：義，上美，下我。把美的下半部分，用我来代替。特指，我会被别人认为是美，会被别人赞赏。于是被用来指代那些会被别人赞赏的行为。\n二者是什么关系\n仁包含了义，义是从仁中分化出的行为类别之一。老子说，失仁，而后义。让咱们通过一则故事来剖析之。\n论语里有个故事：楚王打猎时丢了一把心爱的弓箭，手下们急得要回去找，而楚王说，算了吧，楚人丢了弓，反正也是被楚人捡走。手下听到楚王这么说，就认为楚王胸怀豁达，很有格局。\n而孔子听后说，楚王格局不够，应该说，人丢了弓，被人捡走。孔子就是从仁的角度去看这件事。\n而楚王则是从义的角度去看这件事。楚王要是觉得弓被秦国捡走来射自己，那楚国人一定骂自己，这种行为不会被人赞赏。所以义，是要被自己人赞赏，才能是义。所以古惑仔，土匪，要讲究一个义字，而不是仁字。它的思想理念，行为标准是更小格局的。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["文化","语言"]},{"title":"没走过的路开满鲜花","url":"/%E6%B2%A1%E8%B5%B0%E8%BF%87%E7%9A%84%E8%B7%AF%E5%BC%80%E6%BB%A1%E9%B2%9C%E8%8A%B1.html","content":"\n生活在别处\n\n生活能选择么？永远都像现在这样，我羡慕你清闲，你羡慕我钱多。\n在小城市安家的同学的这句说说道出了普遍之问\n\n看着身边朋友过得平淡安稳，而自己却依然辛苦忙碌，求而不得时，忍不住就会质疑起自己的人生。你会想，这样的生活当初你也唾手可得，可你偏偏选了一条难走的路。如果愿意降低标准，那份平淡或许仍是唾手可得，要做的就是往前勇敢选择时，你又退缩了。\n这个世界，总有人在过着你想要的生活。\n没走过的路鲜花拥簇？\n\n巷子里的猫很自由，却没有归宿，笼子里的鸟有归宿，却身陷囹圄，终身要低头。大城市繁华热闹，可容不下肉身，小城市有现世安稳，却容不下灵魂。无需脑补美化那条你没走过的路，那并不真实。得失从来就参半相生，你得不到的一切，可能也是别人在背后心酸和沧桑换来的（虽不绝对）。\n人在二十多岁，总愿意相信一句话：生活在别处。可惜人要到很久之后才能明白，这世上并不存在传说中的“别处”，你所拥有的，也不过是你手上的这些。而你兜兜转转最终得到的，也不过是你在第一个站台错过的。\n人与人，各有渡口，各有归舟，相信凡所发生，皆有意义。成年人最大的清醒是懂得顺势而为，既往不恋，未来不迎，当下不杂。\n永远不要美化那条没有走过的路，当下就是最优解，而未来的路又取决于你当下是否走好。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"油腻的周董","url":"/%E6%B2%B9%E8%85%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%91%A8%E8%91%A3.html","content":"\n油腻与江郎才尽\n《Mojito》一出感到不是那么欣慰的fans应该不少，也有老腔调“江郎才尽”来描述感受，这个词可以用在很多文艺界人士身上，但用这个词给周董是不公平的，因为周董已经可以不靠这个搏生活，还继续出来其实是也是一种有感而发，加之对粉丝的一个交代，这种状态下用油腻是更贴切的。\n任何才气横溢的人也有收敛的一天，不可能时时刻刻输出好作品的，像伍迪艾伦每年一部电影，也不是每年都有好作品，但你要敬佩的是别人的态度，别人是在淡然书写自己的热爱坚持和答卷。不知道市场的口味还期待大收获，屡次撞墙的话用江郎才尽总结才合适。\n天才是年轻人的专利\n滚石史上最伟大的十首歌，绝大多数都是21-24岁之间写出来的，也就是说对于流行音乐来说，先天天赋比后天勤奋更重要。随着年龄增长，命途通达，创作力减缓是很正常的一件事。这不仅在音乐界，在科学界也不是什么新鲜话题。\n周董的名字和他过去的成绩，就已经足够了，周董就算再做十年旅游博主，照样是站在顶峰的人，同样20多岁，后来者大可以挑战他试试。\n\n为什么产出会下降\n周董现在的状态太好了，所以没有以前对外界和新事物敏感（或者不感兴趣了），人到中年，可能都会进入一个思考自己的过程，以前是单身所以思考问题以自己居多，看世界的方式是年轻人的方式，对抗，不平，撕裂，活出风格，展现格调… 现在家庭圆满，我自己挺好，不需要你指导，顶多想要给孩子们留点指导意义的东西，所以半退休状态的他，还肯出来，粉丝们感恩意味更大点或许会更实际。\n音乐人还是要有表达欲，创作者都是我手写我心，写自己当前最真实，最想表达的状态，人家这几年就是安享美满家庭，享受甜甜爱情，没有那么多大风大浪，写点情歌咋了，只是部分歌迷还停留在过去的生活状态或者是旧歌新俘虏的年轻人。当然如果没什么想和歌迷交流，没什么想要说出来，也无需硬拗，周董这种风格眼见将是常态，被新生代年轻偶像替代自是当然，不妨碍其历史成就。\n后记\n记这篇内容，主要是出于学习第三章中别人对这种现象的表达，从娱乐圈类推其它行业圈其实又有很多相似之处，借用能量密度这个概念可以。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["音乐"]},{"title":"浪潮之巅NVIDIA","url":"/%E6%B5%AA%E6%BD%AE%E4%B9%8B%E5%B7%85NVIDIA.html","content":"\n吴军老师的《浪潮之巅》写作较早，暂未收录NVIDIA这家公司。写一篇网文汇总，回顾这位2023年彪炳IT史的弄潮儿，勇立潮头者，少不了值得我们品味学习的地方。\n从&quot;刺头&quot;到巨头\n\nlinux之父linus，因英伟达多年来拒绝对GPU内核驱动开源，对英伟达竖过🖕🏻：英伟达是我们遇到过最糟糕的公司。So F**K you，Nvidia！\n\n22年应黑客攻击，才开源Linux驱动源码（黑客也为了解除特定显卡的挖矿限制）\n\n\n\n\n\n\n微软，英特尔，AMD，三星，高通都跟英伟达对簿过公堂，但「皮衣刀客」就是：不怕得罪客户，不怕战斗！\n\n\n给加密货币提供矿机，推出专门面向“挖矿”定制的专业矿卡。为了挖矿生产的，游戏玩家们没办法用，直接舍弃了图形处理功能\n\n以前吹以太坊有价值，加密货币矿机有未来。但以太坊从POW（工作量证明）转向了POS（权益证明），话锋一转，又说加密货币无法给社会带来啥价值\n矿机的几年背负了很多骂名，但也让公司撑到了AI新世代的周期\n\n\n\n一路推动GPU走向主流市场，坚持搭建生态，形成了如今高耸的护城河和垄断式的市场占有率，不得不佩服管理层近10几年的远见卓识\n\n\n\n命运的齿轮\n\n老黄如今已是硅谷科技巨头中现任最久的CEO，敏锐又灵活，精明无比\n\n成长履历\n\n\n祖籍浙江，1963年生于台湾，9岁后跟哥哥一道去美国，并就此定居在美（老爹出差去了一次美国后就执意让孩子过去发展），脱离父母在美生活了2年，陌生的差环境，锻炼了黄仁勋强大的环境适应能力\n\n\n当时住在肯塔基州的亲戚家，上着一所乡村寄宿学校，学校有很多问题学生，他学会了爬墙，偷吃东西和抽烟\n\n\nAMD掌舵人 苏姿丰（3岁移民美国，比老黄小6岁）要尊称黄仁勋为表舅，其姥爷是老黄的亲大舅\n\n\n\n1978年，15岁的老黄获得美国乒乓球男子双打季军，在竞争不强的美国乒乓球界，老黄有很大机会成为乒乓球运动员，代表美国队参加88年奥运会\n\n说说有趣的走向，大神钱学森生于清朝，二战末期被授予上校军衔，他和冯.卡门，冯.布劳恩都是美国现代火箭和导弹技术奠基人，若在漫威世界线中，钱上校应该和美国队长是战友，和霍华德史塔克是同事，同是神盾局创始人之一\n\n\n\n81年(18岁），黄仁勋进入波特兰州立大学就读，86~89年进入斯坦福攻读电子工程硕士学位，在斯坦福，接触到了更先进的计算机图形技术，对于图形处理器的研究个更加深入\n\n\n毕业后，黄仁勋加入AMD负责图形处理器及相关产品，两年后，黄仁勋离开AMD，加入了LSI Logic，担任图形处理器设计师。在LSI Logic，他又积累了大量关于图形处理器的实践经验\n\n\n创立NVIDIA\n93年，30岁的黄仁勋与Chris Malachowsky和Curtis Priem共同创立了NVIDIA，专注于图形处理器的研发和制造。公司名称NVIDIA来源于拉丁语“envidea”，意为“视觉”，此时是游戏发展「街机转家用机」的浪潮。他们早期的明星产品是Geforce 256，是dx7时代「千禧年前后」的市场精品\n老黄立志将公司做到计算机图形领域的老大哥，可现实是残酷的。起初，黄与团队耗时两年打造了第一款显卡产品NV1，由于不兼容竞争对手3DFX的Glide 3D标准，销售表现十分惨淡，最终不得不停止销售。好在这款产品吸引了视频游戏制造商Sega的注意，并与之建立了合作。但经过一年的开发，英伟达的团队意识到其设计的架构是错误策略，因为微软即将宣布基于反向纹理映射和三角形的Windows 95 Directx3D，这代表着如果英伟达完成了Sega的游戏机，公司将会创造出与Windows不相容的产品，sigh！\n想要拯救奄奄一息的英伟达，必须破釜沉舟。黄仁勋将英伟达的战略从游戏主机转向PC市场，并从游戏设计公司晶体动力挖来David Kirk（也就是后来的CUDA之父）博士担任首席科学家，组织了一个庞大的研发团队。\nCPU vs GPU\n\n通用vs专用\n\nCPU就像一个学习渊博的教授，什么都精通都能做，但任务的一项项做，比较慢\nGPU就像一堆小学生，对于特定的简单运算任务，人多力量大，所以在大量并行计算上，GPU完胜\n\nGPU是做协同处理，叫co-processor，因为GPU是处理大量并行计算，所以它的设计上并没花很多心血做程序的控制，依然作为协处理器存在PC体系结构中\nGPU由于历史原因，是为了视频游戏而产生的，在三维游戏中常常出现的一类操作是对数据进行相同的操作，如：对每一个顶点进行同样的坐标变换，对每一个顶点按照同样的光照模型计算颜色值。GPU的众核架构非常适合把同样的指令流并行发送到众核上，采用不同的输入数据执行。\nCUDA时代的CPU和GPU差异可以参阅[6]，在CUDA的概念中，CPU和GPU分属Host和Device，二者之间通过PCIe总线连接，可以在CUDA编程中使用cudaMemcpy函数进行CPU与GPU之间的数据传递\n核数差异\nCPU虽然有多核，但总数没有超过两位数，每个核都有足够大的缓存和足够多的数字和逻辑运算单元，并辅助有很多加速分支判断甚至更复杂的逻辑判断的硬件；\nGPU核数远超CPU，被成为众核（Nvidia Fermi有512个核）。每个核拥有的缓存大小相对小，数字逻辑运算单元也少而简单（初始GPU在浮点运算上一直弱于CPU）\n\n总结来看\n\n\n\n\nCPU\nGPU\n\n\n\n\n包含\n较少的多功能核心\n很多功能单一的核心\n\n\n内存消耗\n高\n低\n\n\n专注于\n低延迟\n高通量\n\n\n擅长\n处理复杂的串行指令\n处理并行的简单指令\n\n\n\n成本+专业演进\n两个小芯片比一个大芯片便宜\n不断膨胀臃肿的CPU，在成本，功耗，还有灵活性上，远不如一个小CPU加上一个GPU的组合搭配\n专业之道，惟精惟一\nCPU和GPU很多东西是不一样的，领域专注使其性能，架构灵活性，使得其可随着行业生态及编程API等不断去修改，去提升\n独立GPU的催化剂-DirectX\n微软看到越来越多人开始用PC，而PC除了办公外，还有游戏功能，但PC游戏的3D效果没有办法跟PS2对比。Windows上尚缺乏统一的图形和音频接口，开发者难以为应用程序和游戏提供一致的用户体验。\n微软那时想到一个办法，就是把大量图形的功能，才CPU中移植出来放到GPU上，通过这种方法让GPU的性能强起来，推动行业发展，反过来去巩固他自己在PC端的地位。与此战略打配合的就是DirectX：一种图形音频API接口。\nDirectX把市面上各种各样的硬件统一起来，提供了一个标准API，让开发者们能更好地调用这些GPU的硬件性能，而不必耗费大量精力在兼容性上。\nDirectX，它的早期版本图标是一个核弹（内部代号曼哈顿计划），寓意也很明显，从日本人手里把图形方面的制高点拿下来。把市场、标准甚至以后的前沿技术，都攥在自己手里\n\n刚诞生时，还是很原始的一个东西，没什么人去用它，那时候整个民用行业关于图形应用方面的话语权，都在日本游戏厂商手里。\n\n97年当时还有三个标准:OpenGL、DirectX、3DFX公司的Glide。\n直到Directx6（1998）才借助32位渲染和整合的纹理压缩算法打败对手，成为主流\n\n在微软的带动下，英伟达开始与下游厂商纷纷结成伙伴，最终活了下来。\nDX7：催化剂的临界点\nDirectx在DX7版本的时候（1999）的设计，决定了现代意义上的GPU的诞生。\nDX7之前的GPU，专做填充颜色，图形从顶点到多边形的的生成，这种运算全都由CPU来做。微软在DX7-API里，把顶点计算、多边形生成的很大一部分工作卸载下来了（Transform &amp; Lighting：T&amp;L，坐标转换和光源），给了GPU，使得GPU有更大的作用。\n\n\n3D游戏中除了场景+物体还需要灯光，没有灯光就没有3D物体的表现\n卸载前，CPU计算出顶点坐标之后，还要去生成很多三角形，然后再做一些着色指令发给GPU，GPU再去做这些东西，之前坐标转换和灯光都需要CPU来计算\n卸载后，CPU只要告诉GPU坐标点在哪里，剩下的交给GPU自己去做就可好了。在刚开始分离的时候，效率没有太大的提升\n\n随着特效越来越多，往CPU中塞入更多浮点加速单元，跟上DX新版本的要求，已经越来越难了，这时候GPU的重要性就凸显出来了\n\n换句话说，通过一个很复杂，性能很强的CPU去渲染3D图像，在成本和技术上实现都有困难\nGPU就是能从一个硬件上支持T&amp;L的显示芯片，因为T&amp;L是3D渲染中的一个重要部分，其作用是计算多边形的3D位置和处理动态光线效果，也可以称为“几何处理”\n\nDX7时代开始，英伟达和微软深度绑定。之前英伟达喜欢支持一些自有或不够主流的标准，经常产品失败，而后微软每一次API的大改动，老黄都是第一时间去支持的。\n\n深度绑定微软，Geforce256就是DX7的划时代产品。\nGeforce256所采用的核心技术除了硬件T&amp;L之外，还有立方环境材质贴图、顶点混合，纹理压缩和凹凸映射贴图，双重纹理四像素、256位渲染引擎等诸多先进技术，在性能大幅提升同时，3D游戏的画面得到了质的提升\n\nDX8：CPU和GPU彻底分离\nDX8（2000）也发生了一件关键的事情：微软在GPU API中引入了法线贴图，及可编程着色器\n\n这两个功能都需要你在处理器的执行单元额外加入晶体管，芯片面积会变大。\n\n比如说1000个流处理器，每个周期可以做两个操作，它跑在1GHz频率下，就能跑出2TFlops的浮点运算能力\n今天7纳米的时代，把1000个流处理器集成到一个CPU里，也还是一个非常占面积，很费力的事情，而这只是独立GPU的入门水平\n\n可编程着色器（每一个渲染管线），开发者控制力增强。走到这一步，CPU就没办法承受了，因为CPU本就为了追求单核性能和灵活性，再去加入专用单元，CPU会越来越臃肿。\n首款DX8显卡：GeForce 3 Ti，由于DX8渲染模式的改变，GeForce 3相对于DX7的GeForce 2/256有了天翻地覆的变化，一半以上的模块需重新设计，更多的晶体管融入，你也可映射为现在显卡的浮点计算能力（3D图形处理），在两家显卡厂商的DX8产品里，ATI架构更出色，NV家的性能更强（晶体管投放到顶点管线上）\n DX8后，行业已默认CPU没办法再完全承担3D图形渲染任务，如果你想玩游戏，或者想从事一些3D工作的话，GPU是必须的。\n大幅增加CPU性能继续负担图形渲染的思路，也是有的，即PS3上的用的处理器\n\n这颗处理器非常奇葩，完全沿袭了日本人过去十几年对图形行业的理解，就是一个CPU加入足够多的浮点单元和加速单元，可实现各种各样的计算功能，他们当时号称能“模拟地球”，可惜在那个年代没有走通\n这样的芯片太复杂了，开发难度太大，处理器很臃肿，成本也太高，最后的表现不尽如人意。\n\nDX的后续嬗变\n从DX7到DX8，GPU出具成型。DX9C（2004，DX9首发于2002），是一个非常好的标准，吹响高精度渲染时代的号角。但实际上，当时游戏主要依靠美工，并没有支持很多特效，主要原因是，GPU灵活性不是很强，本质上还没有跳脱暴力的“纹理填充”机器的范畴。\n统一渲染Milestone\nDX10（2006），微软又一次推动了行业，引入了“统一渲染”\n渲染一个画面，本质是两个步骤\n\n绘制出顶点，顶点用来绘制三角形，然后绘制每个模型 ： 顶点单元\n给这些顶点绘制出来的部分上色，或者做一些渲染：像素渲染\n\n分开来看，本来是一种很合理的方案，让专门的单元做专门的事情，但在游戏渲染过程中，你顶点单元10个，渲染单元5个的硬件预设，可能对编程的灵活应用带来复杂度。\n微软对两者做了一个合并，这两个东西变成了一个东西，我就既可以计算顶点，也可以去填充像素，这就是我们说的统一渲染。\n\nDX10随07年Vista发布，NVIDIA在支持DX10方面可谓占了先机，早在06年就已经推出了硬件支持DX10的下一代显示核心–G80。其不再区分像素和顶点着色单元，而是由流处理器单元按照负载动态的执行包括像素和顶点在内的各种着色指令，不同的着色单元不会再出现空闲浪费资源的情况。\n\n命运齿轮的再次转动\n微软尝试统一渲染的时候（DX10），英伟达是被排除在体系之外的（之前两家在打官司），但后来，英伟达非常迅速地倒向统一渲染，完成了架构上的革新（架构推倒重来，彻底地自我革命）\n\n英伟达把它的流处理器拆成了很独立，很标准的单元，方便控制和调度，每个流处理器都可以独立运行\nAMD的处理器是很长的一个大组，一次读取大量指令，缺点是每5个或4个流处理被绑定在一起，不能独立运行\n\nATI是用超长指令集的架构（SIMD-单指令多数据流），每4个矢量+1个标量做一个流处理器组，配合当时微软做的统一渲染的一种试水，没有彻底为统一渲染架构从头做一个设计，效率还是很有问题\n只有一个指令数据输入口，5个单元同进退，现实中很多时候，每个周期可能只是过来一个标量和或两个矢量指令，相当于流处理器中很多单元是在闲置状态（设计与现实不完全匹配）\n后来被收购合并更是无法及时对技术架构做一个彻底的变革\n\n\n\nDX10引导了CUDA\n而如果英伟达没有把自己的GPU变成统一渲染的标量化，CUDA就是一个空谈\n\n本身GPU编程已经是一个很困难的东西了，更何况是给超长指令集的GPU编程。\n给GPU编程，让其资源利用最大化，计算资源需要都标准化，不能是特殊配比\n\n\n流处理器是1D标量处理器，它一次只能计算像素和顶点 4个数据中的一个，这样效率不会很低吗？当然不是，因为随着游戏的发展，GPU要处理的指令已经不是4D这种常规数据流了，进入DX10时代后，Z缓冲区（1D）或纹理存取（2D）等非4D指令所占比重越来越多，此时传统的Shader单元在执行此类指令时效率会降至1/2甚至1/4\nG80 1D标量处理器执行各种类型指令时效率都能达到100%，这也就是NVIDIA对于GPU架构大换血的主要目的，G80的这种架构被称为MIMD（多指令多数据流），其特色就是执行效率非常高，但也不是没缺点，理论运算能力偏低，晶体管消耗比较大，当然由于对手产品实力不行，这些缺点在很长一段时间内都没有被发现。而且NVIDIA的1D标量流处理器还可以异步工作在超高频率下，一般是GPU核心频率的两倍，由此大幅提升了渲染能力，这一技术ATI到2010年时还没实现。\nG80的MIMD标量架构需要占用额外的晶体管数，在流处理器和理论运算能力方面比较吃亏，但却能保证超高的执行效率；而R600的SIMD超标量架构可以用较少的晶体管数获得很多的流处理器数量和理论运算能力，但执行效率方面却不如人意，G80的架构显然要比R600改进更为彻底。\n\n\n\nMIMD(单指令多数据流)的超标量架构可以执行任意组合形式的混合指令\nSIMD架构非常依赖于将离散指令重新打包组合的算法和效率，赢了晶体管成本，输了执行效率\n\n\n真正的大佬：Microsoft\n\n半导体行业，尤其数字芯片这块，有一句话叫“硬件软件不分家“，微软是PC生态主导，它的API承担了桥梁的作用，自然而然，它能去收集很多游戏开发商及软件生态行业的需求。\n还有一些研究院，有很多前沿的探索，在研究的过程中，微软觉得下一代可能要做某些改进，于是反馈给GPU厂商。\n也正是因为如此，微软在GPU行业发生变革的时候，它走在前面，或者说它引领了变革\n\nDX重大版本更新，GPU必采用全新架构\n\n决定显卡市场胜败的关键是在体系架构方面，这是双方设计实力的体现\n市场验证每次都是新架构产品胜出，不变则败\n\n\nCUDA真正能起来，一方面是英伟达顶层的远见卓识，一方面是因为微软背后推动了GPU架构的重大变革\n微软要搞光追，老黄第一个站出来说：”好，我来当马前卒“，老黄很卖力地去推微软要推进的东西，相比之下，AMD，英特尔对这一块没那么感兴趣\n\n土地与作物\nGPU本质上跟软件是高度耦合的，这也导致了它跟API版本，跟API厂商关系必须非常密切，微软在图形领域掌握了标准话语权\nGPU作物要长得好，它就必须听土地的话，而土地就是微软。\n英伟达干过很多荒唐的事，但还是一步步走到了今天，能够成功，有很大的因素就是他当微软的跟屁虫，这样能保证其在生态上、在标准上不会被人拉到后面去\n与各位大佬Battle\n\n曾几何时，半导体市场有4大玩家：英特尔，AMD，ATI以及英伟达，还有一个超级大甲方金主：微软\n英特尔CPU的市场太大了，处于非常舒服的位置，基本上的态度就是：市场上有啥新东西，你们先搞着，到时候组装到我的主板里面就行了，后来Intel采用了CPU+GPU的集成显卡策略，让ATI和英伟达去竞争，英特尔坐收渔利。\n\n集成显卡一般分为独立显存集成显卡，内存划分集成显卡及混合式集成显卡三类\n\n两个CPU巨头盯着两个GPU新星，明着暗着拉帮结派，再加上，微软，几方就开始搞事情\n微软为了进军游戏主机业务，与任天堂和索尼展开直接竞争，就找到了英伟达，让他成为当时还是秘密项目的Xbox（2002）的GPU供应商。（此时正是DX8的年代）\n\n52亿美金的合同，定金就直接给了2亿美元，当时英伟达全年销售才5亿美元，相当于包养了\n氪金玩家下场，初代配置奇高（堪比高配电脑），进而错过了与PS2（2000）的先发时机，盖茨的一号项目，不成功就成仁，亏钱市场也要有个响（卖一台Xbox，就要亏126美元）\n\n奔腾3处理器+英伟达的显卡+DVD光驱+…\n装载英伟达GPU-Geforce 3的Xbox比单买Geforce 3还要便宜30美金（299 vs 329）\n\n\n这就动了让供应商英伟达降价的念头，一口回绝法庭见，微软扭头转向英伟达的对手ATI，英伟达一年股价蒸发90%\n\n以5.07亿美元身家排在第12位，后一年老黄个人财富缩水10倍，直接从”亿万“回到了”千万“富翁\n\n\n\n意识到错误，忍辱负重\n与微软的交恶，直接导致新推出的Geforce FX因为和微软的标准不兼容，而被对手ATI推出的Radeon 9700打得一败涂地，更糟糕的是，GeForce FX还出现运行温度过高的问题\n挣钱嘛，跪着很常见\n\n服了软，在2003年2月6号与微软共同宣布结束法庭仲裁程序，同意与微软合作降低Xbox的未来成本\n另一手，争取到新金主，为下一代游戏主机PS3提供显示芯片\n主板芯片领域也开始和Intel芯片组兼容（原来首发跟老东家AMD），04年还跟Intel专利交叉许可\n\n\n2004第三季度，在独立显卡市场，ATI市占率59%，而英伟达只有37%。此时在DX9时代区间（02~04）\nAMD收购ATI，天上掉馅饼\n时代的转机：当时AMD很焦虑，CPU争不过Intel，也认同GPU的发展会是未来重要的策略，于是一跺脚，买下市面上最好的GPU供应商。\n\n最开始，AMD想买的是英伟达，但黄仁勋坚持要做合并后公司的CEO，遂告吹，你可以说老黄开出一个无法接受的条件拒绝合并\n\n2006年7月，AMD宣布，以54亿美元收购ATI，市场认为，一个强大的巨头即将诞生，但老黄不这么看，他笃定，AMD吞下AIT之际必然有一段时间的消化和整合期，而英伟达需要抓住这个时期，重新找到市场优势。\n\n这简直是天上掉馅饼一样的礼物，ATI基本上已经认输了，我们成了世界上唯一一家独立的图形芯片公司 – 老黄的采访原话\n\n果不其然，整合让AMD伤筋动骨，颓势一直持续到2016年，消化不良了10年时间\n\n沉重的债务负担，几乎用光了公司的账面现金，负债表到2010年才降下来，一度让AMD濒临破产\n\nAMD收购ATI之前，ATI花了相当的时间在当时的显卡领域”买买买“，专利和技术在ATI的收购过程中产生了大量的溢价（其实老牌显卡商的技术已落后），也就是说，ATI花大价钱把自己吃成了个大胖子，然后这个大胖子又被AMD花更大的价钱吃掉\nAMD穷得连晶圆厂也卖了\n\n\n整合拖慢了节奏，资金链紧张拖累了研发进度，暂时没有产生1+1&gt;2的效果，双线作战的时候力不从心\n\nDX10（2006），统一渲染，ATI面临收购买落地架构变革\n\n\n\nIntel vs Nvidia二英扭打起来\n\n英伟达不满足只做Intel的芯片组集成显卡供应商，开始进攻Intel的蛋糕\n\n2007年，英伟达退出Tesla系列，用于大规模的并联电脑运算，GPU计算解决方案，涵盖到个人电脑以及大规模服务器集群，大客户是Apple。\n08年的苹果MacBook除了CPU用Intel的Core 2 Duo，剩下的直接替换成英伟达的Tesla架构支持的集成控制器GeForce 9400MG，而不是英特尔芯片组的南北桥。\nIntel保守坠落\nIntel铆足了劲想自研芯片，CPU市占率80%，图形处理器市场靠集成芯片组，也能吃50%\n\n这么大的公司，这么多人才，可就是搞不定自研GPU芯片平台\n那就决裂，提前脱钩，北桥芯片不跟你合作了，之前的交叉专利授权不再适用新一代芯片组\n\n一个月后，老黄反手就将Intel诉上，指Intel违反合同，实为阻碍技术\n\n\n打了两年官司，Intel累了，双方和解，和解条件是，Intel要在5年内向英伟达支付15亿美元的专利使用费\n\n市值对比\n谁曾想，英特尔市值当前竟是英伟达的九分之一，直奔1:10而去（2024.2.6）\n\n英特尔市值：$1808亿\n英伟达：$17125亿\nAMD：$2815亿，原来PC时代的万年老二，现今也力压Intel 1千亿市值\n\nxychart-beta horizontal\n    title \"半导体公司市值\"\n    x-axis [INTEL, AMD, NVIDIA]\n    y-axis \"2024.2.6市值 (in $亿)\" 1000 --> 20000\n    bar [1808, 2815, 17125]\n移动市场battle三星高通\n\n英伟达推出的独立移动芯片Tegra，也就是AP（Application Processor）处理器，含CPU+GPU，但还缺基带芯片整合和市场\n\n半道转行到手机芯片，看似功能强大，功耗发热问题有致命伤\n\n英伟达之前一直是苹果Mac电脑系列的GPU提供商，手机芯片这样一块大蛋糕，大家都想要，但苹果说：你们都别想了，我自研\n\n苹果芯片找三星来代工，同时合作了高通的基带芯片\n苹果不满意，可能也跟遭遇过显卡门事件有关，何况Jobs这么吹毛求疵一人\n\n然后就将三星，高通告上法庭，侵犯英伟达图形技术专利7项。三星亦反诉其推出的平板电脑侵犯三星专利8项。官司一打就是8年，却在16年无赔偿庭外和解（AI和挖矿已经开始，大时代画卷已经展开，何必在法庭瞪眼）\n一路走来的经营感悟\n因为专注研发最领先的GPU技术，将巨头们都甩在身后\n但也意识到：产品过于单一、过于依赖性金主甲方的商业模式终究是不安全的\n\n\n大客户永远想砍价\n\n\n永远想将技术变为自有\n\n\n反脆弱化生存\n在老黄的感悟中，生存非常重要，现今为王，作为一名CEO，要么赚钱，要么省钱，要么融资。不专注于这三件事就是CEO不务正业。\n活下去 $\\rightarrow$ 站着挣\n\n\n紧跟标准。图形领域的的标准话语权掌握在微软手里，当好微软的跟屁虫\n\n\n英伟达的文化，就是“快速试错，快速迭代”。如果一个东西对了，它就死命加注；如果错了，就当做没发生过。比如大概十年前，3D显示很火。英伟达不遗余力宣传3D 显示，推出配套软件，配套眼镜。但后来发现这个东西没推广开，英伟达很快翻篇了。\n\n\nGTC发布会什么热点都蹭，量子计算、元宇宙，挖矿等等\n\n老黄看到了大家都在做智能手机，他也想去做智能手机的soc，所以它有一个图睿的产品线，但一直很烂。图睿就一直在折腾，折腾手机，折腾什么机顶盒，后来去折腾车，终于给他蹭上一次风口\n“在英伟达创立初期，我经历了失败，极大的失败，所有的失败都令人羞愧和尴尬。很多都几乎使我们走向了灭亡。”老黄总是有一种创业初期的紧张感，强调快速决策并要求快速执行\n\n\n\nGPU本质上跟软件是高度耦合的，开始下注GPU产品的多样性以及软件生态的搭建。\n\n\n另拓生态求生\n GPU产品的多样性以及软件生态的搭建，路在哪里？\n任务分解\n\n\n如何将自己身的技术更前沿化，修建更高的护城河\n\n\n将产品更多元化，更少依赖单一大客户？\n\n\nGPU技术通用化\n首席科学家David Kirk提出了“将GPU技术通用化”的思路\n\n\n之前主要为了图形图像处理而生，主要做3D渲染，游戏是长期核心业务\n\n\n应该探索“运行图形渲染”之外的“通用计算”任务，包括超级计算机\n\n科学研究和计算、模拟、药物发现、更专业的好莱坞制作等其他更高端的专业图形领域\nGPU的众核架构非常适合把同样的指令流并行发送到众核上，采用不同的输入数据执行。开始在通用计算领域得到广泛应用，包括：数值分析，海量数据处理（排序，Map-Reduce等），金融分析等\n\n\n\n黄仁勋支持了David Kirk的想法，在2006年开始投入大量人员和资源研发这样的并行计算程序开发环境，名为CUDA-Compute Unified Device Architecture–计算统一设备架构\n\n成功之前路亦难走\n\n计算统一设备架构太前瞻了，外界质疑一片\n\n回顾通用计算，2006年到2008年期间，dx10统一渲染刚刚出来，英伟达就不断投入资源，持续了很多年，当时被人骂的非常惨。\n\n在硬件产品中增加CUDA逻辑电路，这使得芯片面积变大、散热增加、成本上升、故障率增高；图形性能却和AMD差不多，人家价格还便宜，功耗还低\n\n2008年就发生了英伟达“显卡门”事件，高温下屏幕扭曲、画面杂乱，让苹果这些大客户对英伟达产生了不满\n\n\n至于英伟达那时候扯什么显卡能做通用计算？消费者根本不关心，玩游戏为什么要考虑蛋白质折叠计算？\n\n如果做CUDA的原因仅仅是基于“科学计算”的需求，你将所有市场加起来，也不过是个几十亿美元的小市场，华尔街否定CUDA\n\n\n华尔街一直问英伟达，为什么你们做了这项投入，却没有人使用它，他们对我们的市值估值为0美元\n围绕着CUDA的质疑一直持续到了AI时代的前夜，英伟达的市值常年徘徊在10亿美元的水平，股价甚至一度因为CUDA附加成本对业绩的拖累跌至1.5美元。股东多次提出希望他们专注于提高盈利能力。老黄也需要说服股东接受成本上升一倍，去搏一个回报周期可能在10年以上的未来\n\n当时，说实话，老黄在当年也无法准确预知，这个市场会有多大，是不是正确的选择。他只知道他押注的是“加速计算”并深信不疑相信这是未来。若这份坚持对的，那么更大更宽的市场会向他打开大门。\n**智能车，云计算、元宇宙、超算，还有各种各样的一些支撑我们数字化的底层的东西，都需要算力。而这些算力大部分时候，都是需要一种并行的向量计算。**他们可能不需要像CPU那样去处理不同的程序，但是需要做很多简单但是非常繁重的计算任务。很多超算、数据中心、加速卡，他们做的事情就是这类计算，需求的是一种大规模并行向量的计算卡\n软件烘托硬件\nGPU可以有效地执行多种运算，从线性代数和信号处理到数值仿真。虽然概念简单，但新用户在使用GPU计算时还是会感到迷惑，因为GPU需要专有的图形知识。这种情况下，一些软件工具可以提供帮助\nGPU编写程序的复杂度非常高，如果要为更通用的人群做GPU产品，那就要开始做软硬件的生态\n\n满足不同领域的开发者用他们已经熟悉的编程语言在软件生态上编写程序和应用，来驱动GPU处理不同的计算任务\n当程序员为CPU编写程序时，他们倾向于利用复杂的逻辑结构优化算法从而减少计算任务的运行时间，即Latency。当程序员为GPU编写程序时，则利用其处理海量数据的优势，通过提高总的数据吞吐量（Throughput）来掩盖Lantency\n\n\nCUDA编译器，把一个本来是串行处理的东西变成并行。就是因为CUDA降低了编程的难度，所以很多人来用它。如果英伟达没有做在硬件架构上做一个彻底性的变革，后来通用计算的功能也就不可能了。\n\nCUDA并非一个纯软件的解决方案，它还需要在硬件上做出相应的设计，从directx10那时的G80至往后都有CUDA相关的硬件设计\n经 GPU存储和操作的数据被形象地比喻成“流”（stream），类似于标准C中的数组。核心（Kernel）是在流上操作的函数。在一系列输入流上调用一个核心函数意味着在流元素上实施了隐含的循环，即对每一个流元素调用核心体\n\n早期CUDA让GPU能运行C写的通用计算程序，可惜AMD没有加入合作协议计划（他们毕竟是竞争对手）。NVIDIA发布了CUDA，AMD和Apple等公司也发布了OpenCL，GPU开始在通用计算领域得到广泛应用，包括：数值分析，海量数据处理（排序，Map-Reduce等），金融分析等等\nCUDA真正能够起来，一方面是因为微软背后推动了GPU架构的重大变革，另一方面，在大家都还没看好时间节点的时候，英伟达投入大量的资源去开发相关的生态\n坚守与创新\n皮衣刀客在守住自己的基本盘——GPU传统图形业务的同时，不断地在未来看得到赔率的地方加速投入。\n\n\n从g80开始，g90、g200，整整四代的架构、对应五代的产品线。他折磨了无数的玩家，无数买他卡的人，陪他一起去分摊成本\n\n\n也推出了Tesla系列的专门的计算卡，但是除了超算之外的地方，相对卖得比较少\n\n\n从又臃肿又难用，到不断自我革命，英伟达挺过来了，等到了那一刻，获得了未来十年的丰厚回报\n\n\n不断自我革命。英伟达创新性引入了一个东西——tensor core。之前所有的AI计算，都是用GPU里面的CUDA或者说流处理来计算\n\n\n很多人都觉得流处理器，是给图形渲染局用的，效率比较低，就想用ASIC去做AI计算。那英伟达本来是最不应该去开发ASIC或者加速单元的，因为这是自己抢自己饭碗吃嘛。但英伟达就做了，他引入了Tensor Core，一种专用加速单元，效果非常好，进一步拉大了跟其他后来者的一个差距。\n\n\ntensor core是一种能执行高效矩阵运算的微小核心。以两个32*32的矩阵乘法为例，有tensor core，计算频率周期能下降一半（访问共享内存周期和计算周期都下降）\n\n\n\n\n\ncuda9.0引入了一个warp矩阵函数 C++语言API，以便开发者可使用GPU上的tensor core，加速矩阵乘加操作\n\n\nNVCC编译器将CUDA代码编译成主机端代码和设备端代码。设备端代码首先编成设备无关机器语言指令集，然后再编译成设备相关机器码\n\n\nCUDA环境已经在持续投入过程中成型了，一些生物实验室开始买显卡了\nNumpy与Tensor的应用区别\nnumpy虽然在科学计算领域十分普及，但在深度学习领域，有两个制约它使用的因素：没有自动求导，不能用GPU加速。故大公司普遍选择了创立更易用的接口或新的编程语言来进行深度学习计算。另：\ntensor可在GPU进行高效并行计算，tensor可别分割成多个块，每个块可以在不同的GPU上进行计算，还有自动求导，形状变换，张量积，矩阵乘法等\nAI浪潮\n2012-奠基年\n\n“深度学习之父”的Jeffery Hinton教授带着他的两位学生Alex Krizhevsky和Ilya Sutskeverz，参加ImageNet大赛，设计的深度卷积神经网络AlexNet一举夺冠，开启了之后十多年神经网络AI的迅速发展。\n\n\nHinton团队参赛的时候，他们发现，如果用CPU来训练AlexNet，需要几个月的时间，于是他们尝试了一下英伟达的GPU，没想到，他们惊喜的发现，两张GTX580显卡只花了一周时间，就训练完成了1400万张图片。人工智能历史上算力的重大突破\n\n\n装载了CUDA的GPU GTX 580，从因为功耗和发热问题而臭名远扬的“核弹显卡”，一夜之间，变成了通往未来最重要的必要装备\n\n\n各大厂商，还有各个高校实验室，纷纷开始向英伟达订购GPU\n\n\n算力大部分时候，都是需要一种并行的向量计算。他们可能不需要像CPU那样去处理不同的程序，但是需要做很多简单但是非常繁重的计算任务\n乘胜出击，人类群星闪耀\n为了计算和人类的未来\n\n英伟达的硬件，仿佛就是新时代的内燃机，载着AI世代不断前进\n\n黄仁勋敏锐的意识到AI发展的重要性，开始加速打造为AI设计的GPU硬件\n\n\n2016 OpenAI之初，就将8块P100GPU的超级计算机DGX-1，送去（捐给）OpenAI的办公室\n\n\nDGX-1价值过百万美元，是老黄带领英伟达3000名员工，耗时三年打造轻量化的小型超算，计算和吞吐能力相当于 250台传统服务器，能把OpenAI 一年的训练时间，压缩到短短一个月\n\n\n在场的工程师和科学家纷纷签名，里面还有两位华人，附录参考里有现场照[5]\n\n\n\n\n\n\n这件事往往被解读为黄仁勋的眼光老辣，但对他本人来说，这无非是确保CUDA成为前沿科学研究者最习惯的框架的又一次尝试\n\n中国的人口红利创新\n\n\n2016年，种花家互联网金融搞得如火如荼，当年的网贷交易额接近2万亿\n\n\n2016年，种花家的房价开始翻番，人们为了摇号买房彻夜排队\n\n\n第二年，种花家网贷开始清盘，楼市迎来最严调控\n\n\n\n历史在奖励长期主义者\n\n遥遥领先\n为何GPU领先一众专用解决方案\n\n\n\n复杂处理由基本计算组成，指令复杂度越高，性能越好，处理器形态越多，单个处理器覆盖场景越小\n左侧灵活性通用性，右侧性能高能耗低\n\nDSA：具有一定程度的可编程，覆盖领域和场景比ASIC要大，但仍需要很多面向不同领域的DSA\n\n为什么今天大家选择的是GPU，而不是DSP？本质上来说还是编程环境的易用性。其次，GPU能更好地适配各种各样的任务。\n大规模的并行向量计算，是一种计算效率、编程性以及通用性的一个取舍，目前取舍最好的结果就是GPU。\n\n\n相较于ASIC和DSA，GPU每项测试都不能拿第一，但可以每项测试都在前10%，这对下游应用和厂商很有价值\n\nDSA-特定领域架构\nASIC-专用集成电路的芯片\n\n\n\nAI的算法迭代太快了，ASIC和DSA都很难跟上变化\n\n\n英伟达有符合它的架构，有支持编程的编译器，还能够给你提供一套完整支持的生态，所以才能在今天的环境中走到这样一个地位。英伟达能够跟随时代的发展趋势，不断去调整策略，赌赢了趋势\n\n\n极致的将来\n真正到最后的极致，软硬一体化才能达到最优。就如苹果的设备相对比较流畅。软件开发到一定阶段，一定会受制于硬件的发展。\n到底是先确定硬件平台，再向上构造软件生态的 bottom to top 过程合理，还是现有软件应用方案，然后 top to bottom 逐步 offload 业务，交由硬件加速合理？\n\nbottom to top，软件基本是消耗资源，达成多平台都支持，要么豪赌一个\ntop to bottom，时间要短一点，则是硬件同志们痛苦，战况往往惨烈。如 SmartNIC，AI 芯片爆发都是这类\n\n在硬件跟得上摩尔定律时，专心投钱做 multi-arch 软件，挑最快的顺风车搭（模型的爆发期阶段因为护城河差距，GPU顺风车竟然只有一辆）；当硬件魔法失败时，给钱给硬件厂商给你造一个独享的法拉利。\n大家怎么不去卷它\n为什么大家都在卷模型，不去卷老黄的市场呢？\n因为拿不到入场卷了，整个深度学习的框架已经是老黄的形状了。通过十数年时间CUDA的开发和社区的持续投入，CUDA和各类AI框架深度绑定。\n\n曾几何时，主机甲方爸爸也尝试过统一开放的API–OpenCL，给各家不同GPU提供一个规范，用以开发类似CUDA的通用计算软件框架， 但通用就意味着不一定好用。\n\n\n各大厂商GPU型号繁杂，驱动差异，质量参差不齐\n\n\n统一框架缺少针对特定厂商的针对性优化\n\n\n同等算力下，都比不过CUDA的速度。且开发复杂\n\nCUDA Toolkit，Nvidia GPU Computing SDK，Nsight等\n\n\n\n同为显卡厂商，AMD有没有解法？\n\n\n有生态平台ROCm，兼容不少计算框架，但效果不咋地\n\n很多东西理论上都支持 ROCm，但在实践中，当你尝试使用它时，你会遇到大大小小的错误，并且会崩溃或无法正常工作\n\n\n\n还要在源码级别对CUDA程序进行支持\n\n各AI框架还费尽心力编写一套支持框架干啥，那就只支持N家的就得了\n\n\n\n其它玩家呢\n\n\n谷歌的TPU也只能做到对自家的Tensorflow框架进行优化\n\n\nIntel的OneAPI还在起步态\n\n\n风光无限好\n当大家都在AI淘金时，英伟达成为了那个卖水的，关键是只有他家的水能解渴\n从OpenAI的第一台GPU，到之后微软帮OpenAI训练ChatGPT用的一万颗英伟达A100 GPU打造的超级算力中心，英伟达清楚并关注大模型的进展。它家是如今训练通用模型的最优解，市占率高达95%。GPU在AI工作中的能效是CPU的20倍，H100 GPU在训练大型语言模型方面的效率是CPU的300倍\n但护城河并非GPU本身，而是在软件部分\n\n\nCUDA软件框架，允许开发人员和用户在不同型号和连续几代GPU上运行相同的软件，实现无缝升级，并显著简化原始开发\n\n\n用户们还是会因为太熟悉自06年起步的CUDA的软件生态而不愿意选择非英伟达的GPU\n\n\n能风光多久，还是一个未知数\n\n\n在定价方面，英伟达为其他公司留出了很大的竞争空间\n\n\n有人估计H100芯片成本只需3200美元，但H100的售价高达3万美元\n\n\n“皮衣刀客”，就是对产品性能和价格的精准控制，花少钱买好货？不存在的！\n\n一款价钱不高的产品，在某方面的性能过于强大，老黄就会对该产品砍一刀，让它在其他方面非常弱鸡\n\n\n\n\n\n过于重视 AI 发展的英伟达，它的老本行显卡已经被其玩烂\n\n\n大客户蓄力自研\n\n\n大客户微软也正在与AMD合作共同自研人工智能处理器“雅典娜”（Athena），来制衡英伟达\n\n\n特斯拉的自研FSD芯片在2017年12月第一次试产，2018年7月获得认证后开始全面生产，英伟达和特斯拉的蜜月期，也只有短短几年而已\n\n\n\n\n既然脱钩断链，中国人力资本雄厚，准备另玩一个生态\n\n\n寄语\n\nCreativity Create Advantage\nInnovation Create Leadership\n\n反脆弱生存\n你说AI已经够他赚了，老黄又跑去蹭挖矿，蹭元宇宙、量子计算机。这就是很典型的反脆弱行为，不断去做额外的尝试，以便于在未来出现大的机遇或者大的混乱的时候，能够抓住机遇或者规避损失。\n\n\n真正的英雄主义，是认清了生活的不确定性后，努力从不确定性中收益 – 塔勒布\n\n反面的代表\n英伟达作风相反的一个很典型的例子，就是英特尔。\n\n2010年，当时的CPU王者英特尔曾传出计划收购英伟达，当时价钱不是问题，问题是该给黄仁勋一个什么职位。从AMD动心收购时就知道想收购老黄的梦想，还是别做梦了\n\n英特尔在十年前天下无敌，没有人能打过它。曾经英特尔有最好的架构，最好的工艺，谁都没有想到，仅仅是因为10纳米制程翻车了一次，整个都被打乱了。看起来很稳的，但实际上它的系统是很脆弱的，没有能抵抗黑天鹅的能力。对自己的工艺过度自信，按着线性外推的结果制定发展策略，一次翻车即遭遇了滑铁卢（原来强势的半导体制造工艺反落后于以台积电为代表的新兴势力，让AMD乘着台积电的工艺占据了优势）\n在竞争中寻找新的增长点\nDPU（Data Processing Unit）在投资领域又成为一个新的重要科技概念，也要拜英伟达的布局所赐。老黄在演讲中表示：DPU将成为未来计算的三大支柱之一，未来数据中心的标配是：CPU+GPU+DPU，分别用于通用计算，加速计算和数据处理。\n随着游戏，3D设计等多媒体图形软件的高速发展，要处理的工作量越来越大，越发复杂，CPU实在忙不过来，就有了GPU分担CPU的压力。DPU出现的道理也一样，也是因为CPU一些难以负担的复杂计算需要进行任务分工。在现在的云计算的趋势下，在数据中心等算力基础设施，提升设施效率，减少能耗浪费，降低成本是一个无法回避的问题。\n虚拟化，网络，存储和安全，是数据中心非常重要的工作，大量消耗算力资源。以网络为例，时时刻刻大量的数据在进行传输，主机在收发数据时，需要进行海量网络协议处理工作，根据传统的计算架构，这些协议都是由CPU完成的。要处理10G的网络包，约要占4个Xeon CPU的核，也就是说，业务程序尚未运行，仅仅进行网络数据包的处理，就要占用8核CPU一半的算力。现在数据中心网络不断升级，从10G到100G，甚至400G高速网络，这些开销如何承受。这些开销，甚至被称为Datacenter Tax。\n就有公司提出了SmartNIC（智能网卡）的概念，将网络协议处理的工作从CPU卸载到网卡上，以此分担CPU的负载。2015年，AWS率先探索这种模式，收购了芯片厂商Annapurna Labs，于17年推出Nitro系统，同年，阿里也发布了类似功能的神龙(X-Dragon)架构。\n2019年3月，NVIDIA花费69亿美元收购了以色列芯片公司Mellanox，英伟达将Mellanox的ConnectX系列高速网卡技术与自己的已有技术结合，在2020年推出两款DPU产品，从此GPU概念正式进入公众视野。DPU不仅仅是智能网卡，扩展将存储，安全和虚拟化等工作从CPU卸载到自己身上。\n\n05年，CPU和内存的硬件虚拟化问题逐渐解决，让虚拟化系统的性能有了大幅的提升，激活了云计算的发展前景和价值。虚拟化发展的过程，是硬件能力不断取代软件能力的过程\n\nDPU是一种新型可编程多核处理器，具有很高的算力，具备高性能网络接口，能告诉解析处理数据，并高效将数据传输到CPU和GPU。在网络协议处理，交换路由计算，加密解密，数据压缩等累活型基础层应用任务很擅长。\n英伟达的DPU是首款为AI和加速计算设计的DPU，提供数据中心级的软件定义和硬件加速的网络，存储，安全和管理等服务，为了构建更为强大的生态，NVIDIA专门给BlueField DPU打造了开发平台–NVIDIA DOCA（Data Center Intrastructure On A Chip Architecture），数据中心基础设施体系架构，利用行业标准API快速创建网络，存储，安全和管理服务，及AI/HPC(高性能计算)一系列应用程序和服务，从而迅速推出新产品。利用专业合理分工，促成数据中心能效最大化。\n功成名就的英伟达不再需要苦口婆心地向市场证明自己眼光的独到之处，创投圈已经蜂拥尾随。\n\n2020年，创投圈曾流行过一个笑话。\n“DPU是什么？”\n“支付宝到账，一亿元。”\n只要触发了DPU这个关键词，钱就会滚滚而来\n\n国外厂商中，Marvell、英特尔、AMD均研发了DPU或DPU的对位产品，国内亦涌现出一批DPU初创企业。\n参考\n1.泡泡网 DirectX支配游戏！历代GPU架构全解析 ↩2.搜狐 在诉讼与骂名中崛起的英伟达GPU ↩3.搜狐 GPU/CPU/DSP有什么区别 ↩4.百家号 英伟达的“反脆弱”式崛起 ↩5.英伟达 单机箱人工智能超级计算机赠予 OpenAI ↩6.知乎 CUDA是什么？以及GPU 与 CPU 性能对比：代码矩阵乘法示例 ↩7.Cornell University康乃尔大学 Roadmap: Understanding GPU Architecture ↩8.新浪 NVIDIA正在“垄断”AI！ ↩9.百家号 Tensor Core有多牛 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["AI","浪潮之巅"]},{"title":"游戏力","url":"/%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E5%8A%9B.html","content":"\nPlayful Parenting：用我们的爱，把孩子的杯子装满\n在充满幻境与想象的世界里，孩子可毫不费力地随意出入，对成人而言，游戏意味着休闲。但对孩子而言，游戏就是工作。\n在生物界，智慧越高的动物，玩游戏的时间越长。与动植物不同，人类对世界和自身的了解，都是通过主动探索和实践来进行的。人类童年期越来越长就是为了更多的游戏时间（学习时间）。\nTips\n\n如果你已经厌倦每天提醒孩子20次要带午餐，倒垃圾。下一次就试试就唱歌剧的方式来发出你的提醒。\n假想游戏：在你对孩子感到失望生气时，可以转换说，现在我们来假装你是我女儿，我是你爸爸。然后我在生你的气。这虽是眼前的事实，但顺从为游戏时，你的怒火会很快不见。\n\n\n\n游戏力\n游戏力所提倡的，就是父母与所有教育者，要充满渴望地与孩子建立联结，献出爱，鼓励与激情，甚至不要害怕重复。\n\n对于孩子自身的孤独感，大人最有可能的反应是生气或担忧，而看不见孩子内心深处所掩藏的痛苦。如果孩子在孤独状态中，就会不停地重复玩同一个游戏，横加斥责只会加重孤独感。\n很多父母会说，哪有那么多时间总和孩子玩游戏。但只要仔细算一算，会发现花在游戏上的投入和产出比非常高。你花在唠叨，发脾气不停催促上的时间，加在一起可比游戏时间多多了。\n\n\n\n禁止孩子玩游戏，就好像禁止承认说话和思考；\n\n\n根本不陪孩子游戏，就像同一个成人整天在一起，但却彼此不说一句话。\n\n\n多孩子参与\n两个孩子-同伴相处\n只要有2个孩子，就会有争吵：玩具，遥控器，大的那块蛋糕，都是争夺的对象。\n你变成箭靶有助于他们走出冲突。例如，打架时，你可以说：你们肯定打不到我，然后跑出房间，假装害怕的要命。\n争吵不公平时，你可以愁眉苦脸的说：我一次也没轮上，这才不公平呢。或者你抓起叉子（争吵物）说，这把叉子我谁也不给，谁也别想用。\n你的加入就像一个鱼饵，孩子有时回来咬，有时不会。如果他们来咬，那么很快就会把自己所关注的同伴相处问题引入到游戏中来。但更内核的是，孩子也要学习如何进行协商。\n\n还有一个有趣的蓄杯实践，面对两个你处理不了时，你可以先给每人一个拥抱，接下来给每个人提供5分钟的妈妈/爸爸时间（单独相处），然后建议大家吃点点心休息一下\n\n三个孩子-包容和排挤\n有3个以上的孩子，就会产生包容和排挤的问题，不应过度插手孩子的游戏或友谊。但也得确保没人被完全排挤或受到严重攻击。高标准是，不抛弃任何人，不放弃任何人。\n把孩子的杯子装满\n只有当大人没时间、精力或 不得其法而无法提供帮助时，孩子们才转而去攻击别人。\n手足相争的核心，是孩子提出的一系列深刻普遍的问题：我被爱着吗？被需要吗？有什么特别吗？我有力量吗？可以视作企图从别人怀里偷东西来蓄满自己的杯子。\n\n孩子是天生的达尔文主义者，资源有限，物竞天择。\n\n我们必须主动给孩子提供更多的蓄杯机会，让他们不必偷，抢。与一对一时做法一样，我们用关注，爱的情感和倾听来蓄满他们的杯子，给他们提供力量和热情，解决冲突，增强合作和包容，激发他们的创意来更好地共同游戏。\n如果他们因为互相竞争而受到惩罚，会把他们的杯子倒得更空。\n让孩子互相照顾，必要提供一些情感沟通的技巧。例如示范年长的孩子如何让弟妹偶尔来主导游戏，角色置换帮每个人都有机会把竞争情绪释放出来。年长的孩子通过假装比年幼者更慢，更弱的方式，可更深刻地理解自己的重要性和能力。\n公平？\n\n此段不是书上的内容，来自网络上的发言讨论。生一个的确省事，没有偏心难题。但手足最大的意义是世界上多了一个除了父母能相互无条件依靠，为你考虑的人。当然这是建立在良好的手足关系下，构筑不是竞争，而是互相依靠互相搀扶的手足关系。\n\n孩子想要的从来不是公平，而是偏爱。被偏爱的小孩是不会计较事事都绝对公平的。反而是不被偏爱的最大的诉求就是公平。\n越是展示公平，越是向小孩展示他们自己不是被偏爱的那个，反而都会不满。“被偏爱”是最大的安全感的来源，一个在亲情里拥有足够安全感的人，是不会计较细枝末节的公平与否的，是有能力主动去爱别人的（因为安全不缺爱，故在付出爱的过程中乐在其中）。\n如果被偏爱无法再父母这里获得，很多人终其一生都会陷入寻找被偏爱之中无法自拔，甚至为了追求那么一丝被偏爱，而在感情中受尽伤害。\n多子女家庭的家长要做的，不是公平，而是让每个子女觉得自己是被偏爱的那个。\n多子女家庭是可以同时偏爱每个孩子的， 如何建立被偏爱的&quot;错觉&quot;？\n那就是建立在特殊上，就是，有些事情父母只会对“我”做。\n\n如跟父母独处散步聊天谈心；某一方的卧室永远更大；表演单方面偷偷给某娃一些奖励，让其不要告诉对方（实际上每一方都有）\n\n父母身心疲惫怎么办？\n很多时候我们和孩子发脾气，并不是我们孩子做错了什么，而是我们当下的心情不好，压力大，情绪低落，看到亲人更容易发泄出来。这时，一定要先照顾好自己的情绪，让自己先好起来，才能去帮助孩子。\n用你自己的方式去放松一下：唱歌，逛街，和朋友聊天，刷剧。。。。只要和孩子告知自己的状态就可以，一定要明确和孩子说：爸爸/妈妈现在有点累，你先自己安排自己的事情，我休息一下再来找你。\n只要你和孩子及时明确表明你的情绪，孩子都会理解。孩子还从你身上学会了表达情绪，以后他有什么问题，也会清楚的说明。\n千言万语一句话\n众生皆苦，愿对孩子献上无条件的❤️\n有更多兴趣，还可以串联看看自己的另一篇文章，传送门在此：《童年成长寄语》。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"深度关系与精神资源","url":"/%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E4%B8%8E%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90.html","content":"\n本期内容主体来自于梁宁产品思维30讲的《02用户体验与结婚教练》课后彩蛋文章汇总节选\n\n\n一篇是《关系的深度–“纸牌屋”安德伍德与克莱尔夫妇的深刻关系》，此篇表述更为精彩\n\n\n一篇是《一个人的精神结构和他的精神资源》\n\n\n第一篇描述要强者；第二篇描述苟安者，这苟安者的出场头牌是慈禧。\n\n文章是节选，我再继续缩写节选警句，尊重原创。\n\n第一篇-深度关系\n《纸牌屋》中 安德伍德 与克莱尔夫妇独处镜头总是在一起吸烟或跑步，从来没有躺在床上松弛聊天的场景。与各自的情人在一起时，场景镜头则不同。克莱尔告诉情人亚当只能爱他偶尔一周，然后继续回到安德伍德身边。\n为甚？因为他们拥有更为深刻的关系。\n人生重要的天分是持续快乐的地方，每个人都没有办法拒绝自己真实的快乐，会不自禁的在自己喜欢的事情上花时间，不知不觉放一万个小时在那里。\n然而，成就最高的某批人，还有一个比快乐更重要的天分 – 痛苦！\n\n\n有人受不了山顶不是他，有人受不了成绩好过他，有人受不了“我想要的那张椅子上坐的不是我”的痛苦。\n向上爬、严格自律、殚精竭虑，这样日复一日，委实不快乐，但驱动他们的是痛苦，巨大的痛苦，让他们无法停下来。\n\n普通与杰出\n什么叫普通人？就是快乐没那么强烈，痛苦也没那么巨大。\n什么是杰出的人？就是如果他想要的那个得不到，就像万蚁噬心般痛苦。牺牲什么都可以，他必须得到他要的那个东西。\n当他不再痛苦的时候，也许他超越了，也许他就平庸了。\n所以，要想和一个优秀的人在一起，就要懂他真实的快乐，懂他真实的痛苦，并且给予他能量。\n深浅远近\n《纸牌屋》克莱尔的优雅聪慧得体，但内核，一直点燃她，推动她，折磨她的，是她自己勃勃的野心。\n\n情人亚当对克莱尔说：你一直要万众瞩目。不！我要举足轻重。\n\n安德伍德则和她有一样的痛，对于拥有这样巨大痛苦的人，欢愉显得短暂与廉价。他们一寸一寸前进，痛苦才能得到慰藉，只有他们二人，才能真实地分享痛苦，交换能量和灵魂，这就是人与人关系的深浅远近。\n这就像傻白甜是不可能搞定霸道总裁的，他可能真实地给了霸道总裁欢愉，可欢愉在霸道总裁这里相对脆弱。\n很多人一生关系中，最大的痛是与父母的关系。论获得能量，生命都是父母给的，父母的爱是一生最大的能量。可是若父母不能理解子女的快乐，不能理解子女的痛苦的时候，这种生生疏离的痛苦，是多么残酷，也是做儿女的要学会与生活和解的一面，双方的修行。\n第二篇-精神资源\n伊丽莎白和慈禧相差300年，但都单身主政40年，可成就不同，前者使英格兰文化达到顶峰（出现莎士比亚，培根等大师），国力猛进；后者虽周遭名臣涌现，难阻败局。\n\n\n伊丽莎白童年教师，是英国文艺复兴时期著名人文主义者罗杰·阿斯卡姆，伊丽莎白会六国语言，精神资源中有亚里士多德，凯撒，哥伦布\n\n\n慈禧的精神资源，是《资治通鉴》，以及戏文《挑滑车》、《四郎探母》，这些内容形成了她的世界观和精神结构。\n\n\n家庭注入的精神\n为什么家庭环境对人一生的影响，远大于他在学校里收到的教育？\n因为，家庭和教育，给予了一个孩子影响他一生的做事习惯与精神资源。孩子成年后一生的所有重要决策，不是基于数学考90分还是60分，而是从幼年开始的经历及有意无意被注入的精神资源。\n精神资源结构会主导他的好恶感和羞耻心，他的愿望，梦想和恐惧，继而对决定产生影响。\n小说三体的例子\n《三体》中致使太阳系毁灭的美女程心，拥有人类世界最高权柄，却连续两次做出错误决策，放弃对三体人的威慑，放弃曲率飞船研发。因为她不具备在宇宙生存竞争中，带领一个知识和技术不占优势的种族，劈开红海断腕而出，开辟自己的生存空间的精神结构，而书中的地球人温顺，麻木…\n分层视角来看人\n故事来自于一个结婚教练，用从表及里的剖析法来分析潜在配偶，助力姑娘们看准郎君嫁人。自底向上分为这么五层：\n\n\n感知层\n\n\n角色层\n\n\n资源层\n\n\n能力圈\n\n\n存在感\n\n\n存在感\n存在感是前面讲的精神结构/资源下最里面的部分，也是一个人持续让自己变化的内在动力。要深度关系在一起过，你要看他这个人对自己的存在感到底是一种什么样的自我设定和感知，他对自己能力圈的建设和经营，他对自己的资源的建设和管理。\n存在感的不同，驱使同在一批起跑线的青年创业者在若干年后做出不同产品，收获不同的结局。如校内网的王兴，抓虾的徐易容，豆瓣的阿北。三个人的能力圈和资源结构相较于05年都发生了很大变化，而不是当时都很斯文的干web2.0的文艺男青年。\n存在感即是他自己为什么而存在，什么状态下存在感得到满足，什么时候他不爽或烦躁，它是一种触发情绪和推动行动的开关。就像狮子为什么要去咬长颈鹿，其实它也很吃力，很勉强，被踢挨打有风险，但没办法，必须厮杀下去，吃饱了它才不这么费劲呢。\n一个人为什么奔波，焦虑，不安，机关算尽，上蹿下跳？其实皆因他的存在感还没有被满足，动物其实只要生存条件满足，就会很愉悦了。男人和女人又不一样，很多女孩在一段关系中如家庭中对方给了足够的确认感，就会很满足，但很多男人是不局限于此的。\n一个人是为了不断强化自己的存在感，在左冲右突中扩充了自己的能力圈。就如同动物在奔波和厮打中强健了自己的肌肉。换言之存在感满足了，能力圈就不会再扩充了，毕竟扩充能力圈其实是一件很痛苦的事情。\n\n存在感会驱使改变自己的能力圈，改变自己的资源，然后甚至改变自己外在的样子\n\n释疑\n角色框架\n每个人都生活在角色里，且被角色驯化，你是银行职员，军人，或是公务员，你会看到他身上角色的痕迹。大家日常就是角色的对接。\n资源结构\n出身背景，财富，人脉，精神资源，每个人都不一样。资源结构会推动每个人，去往不同的地方，未来可能会到不同的系统不同的角色中去。\n乔布斯的三个女人\n\n\n生了一个女儿却不愿给分一分钱的布伦南\n\n\n弥留写自传，潸然泪下坦诚是最美是首爱的蒂娜，向蒂娜求婚却被拒绝。蒂娜觉得用户体验太差了“忽视是一种虐待，爱上一个以自我为中心的人，这种痛苦难以置信”，或者你可以说，蒂娜没有那么爱乔布斯。\n\n\n分得百亿遗产的劳伦，陪了乔布斯27年，给了他稳定的情感支撑，她找到了消解糟糕体验的办法，也说的很真实。“他像激光那么专注，当他的光芒照耀到你身上，你就会沐浴着他的关爱。但是，当他的光芒转移到其它关注点的时候，你就会觉得人生非常黑暗”\n\n\n摆一个乔布斯在你面前，你能接住么？你要么？\n结语\n个人看法存在感是动态的，跟环境有关，但内核稳定，就像一个人价值观稳定，除非受什么强刺激\n你的存在感是什么？此时我在问自己，总结清楚后，或许我会补充到文章上\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["心理"]},{"title":"漫谈个人能力发展","url":"/%E6%BC%AB%E8%B0%88%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95.html","content":"\n开门见山\n\n聚焦\n恒心、方式与坚持\n升级\n\n聚焦\n按需所学（I will learn it when i need it）也许是一个不错的能力，但不应该成为有志工程师的价值观\n\n我会在我需要钱的时候再去进行投资，这句话套上如上的实用主义光环就不那么漂亮了\n\n用专注来换取效率，赢得差异性\n当今各个行业通常都很巨大，你不可能学习所有的东西，有所选择地把其学精。\n广度知识是深度研究的副产品\n\n只要你有足够的好奇心去跟从你的兴趣，你会发现最终真正掌握很多其它的东西\n看过网上一个例子：发言者说其爷爷是一个核物理学家，数十年在工作中获得这个领域中更深的知识让他成为了一个专家，同时也让他成为了一个优秀的数学家、不错的化学家、非常好的物理学家、还是一个合格的生物学家\n为啥 python 不支持自增\n学过 C、Java的人都了解自增运算符，但当你转用Python时，会发现没有此语法，好奇怪\n若你把它看作理所当然时，你会丧失一些深度对照理解的契机。这是因为 Python 和 C 语言概念上的一些差异所致\nPython 中，变量是以内容为基准而不是像 C 中以变量名为基准，所以只要你的数字内容是 5，不管你起什么名字，这个变量的 ID 是相同的，同时也说明了 python 中一个变量可以以多个名称访问，如\nb=5a=5id(a)==id(b)a is b 结果是 True\n这样的设计逻辑决定了 Python 中数字类型的值是不可变的，改了 a，b 也直接变，这当然不是你希望的\n恒心、方式与坚持\n\n\nStay Hungry、Stay Foolish（坚守痴心）\n\n\n学习并非快乐，要坚持。有兴趣，去琢磨和钻研，慢慢才变成会学习，最后才可能发展出一定的乐趣。这是身体上的内啡肽奖励，每个人的多样性是不同的，学习风格也不同，找到你自己的这份奖励\n\n\nflowchart LR\n\t行为习惯 --> |决定|思考方式\n\t思考方式 --> |框定|发展路径\n\n迟滞岁月磨损的唯一办法是始终保持思考，怀抱欣喜之心学习\n\n升级\n$工作结果 = 思维方式 * 热情 * 能力$\n能力一般有如此发展路径：\nflowchart LR\n按要求行事 --> 领会意图+主动回报 --> 抓住重点克服困难 --> 实现预测应对变化 --> 创造性地执行\n在创造性地执行之前，都可以说在迈向一个词：靠谱\n职业通道评审中常见的问题\n\n技术细节了解不足、核心数据关注不够、视野不够、对公司相关系统、行业动态了解不足\n\n只了解框架或仅关注业务层实现，专业深度了解不足\nCase by case 地解决问题，缺乏提炼归类。人类学习能力其实就是抽象能力\n\n\n知识分享不足\n设备选型也是可以加强了解的，例如 GPU 机型不同型号的算力\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["职涯"]},{"title":"犬儒主义","url":"/%E7%8A%AC%E5%84%92%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89.html","content":"\n犬儒主义（Cynicism）是个外来词，中文里本来没有现成的对应词汇，通常将它理解为讥诮嘲讽、愤世嫉俗、玩世不恭。来源于古希腊犬儒学派学者主张的哲学思潮。早期的犬儒是极其严肃的,提倡对道德的无限追求。随着犬儒理念的流行，犬儒主义的内涵发生了微妙的根本变化。\n\n早期的犬儒主义者是根据自身的道德原则去蔑视世俗的观念；\n后期的犬儒主义者依旧蔑视世俗的观念，但是却丧失了赖为准绳的道德原则。\n\n\n大家都是狗，只是一部分人认识到自己是狗，一部分不自知，认知到的这批就是那批犬儒主义者。\n\n理想主义 VS 虚无主义\n后期的犬儒主义者普遍有这样的想法：既然无所谓高尚，也就无所谓下贱。既然没有什么是了不得的，因而也就没有什么是要不得的。这样想法的结果是，对世俗的全盘否定变成了对世俗的照单全收，而且还往往是对世俗中最坏的部分的不知羞耻的照单全收。于是，愤世嫉俗就变成了玩世不恭。\n犬儒一词的演变证明，从愤世嫉俗到玩世不恭，其间只有一步之差。一般来说，愤世嫉俗总是理想主义的，而且是十分激烈的理想主义。玩世不恭则是彻底的虚无主义。偏偏是那些看上去最激烈的理想主义者反倒很容易转变为彻底的虚无主义者。简单不负责任的解释是：犬儒不只是在过去饱尝辛酸，犬儒是对未来过早地失去希望\n\n现代犬儒\n现代犬儒主义是一种“以不相信来获得合理性”的社会文化形态。现代犬儒主义的彻底不相信表现在它甚至不相信还能有什么办法改变它所不相信的那个世界。犬儒主义把对现有秩序的不满转化为一种不拒绝的理解，一种不反抗的清醒和一种不认同的接受。\n“说一套做一套”形成了当今犬儒文化的基本特点。“世界既是一场大荒谬，大玩笑，我亦惟有以荒谬和玩笑对待之。”\n超然解释\n犬儒思想并不带有自我罪孽感。在它那里，怀疑正统成为一种常态思想。无论从认知还是从道义来说，不相信都是常态，相信才是病态；相信是因为头脑简单，特容易上当。犬儒思想者也不再受恐惧感的折磨，因为他知道人人都和他一样不相信，只是大家在公开场合不表明自己的不相信罢了。\n\n上面的后半部分的评说比较有意思，包括大荒谬\n\n逗趣不如好奇\n社会公共话题中在当前的网络时代通常跟随着犬儒主义，不过除非能提出一些我们想象不到的视角或者思考，否则这个路数是没有多少存在价值的。最后引用一句话结束这篇日志，《从优秀到卓越》一书作者考林斯说他年轻时在大学教书，他想请教如何成为一个更好的老师。对方给他的建议让他获益终身：吉姆，你花太多时间想逗趣，为什么不反过来，多点好奇呢？（You spent too much time trying to be interesting, why don’t you become interested for a change?) 如果没有好奇心去倾听，去研究，去看不同观点不同视角，而仅带着成见，带着犬儒心态去看待公共话题，是不能对公众产生多少帮助的。\n其实那段英语的原话是：\n\n“It occurs to me, Jim, that you spend too much time trying to be interesting,” he said. “Why don’t you invest more time being interested.”\n\n上面下划线是别人文章里的话，日志的主题是为了记载概念而不是评论问题，虽然我不认同里面“带着成见”这样的表述，不过实在是避免只引用这句英语就结束显得突兀，摘抄要完整。\n后记\n从我2020年重贴这篇日志时，我的动机是记忆力不清楚犬儒主义概念的内涵了。为什么当初行文要找出英文原话，应该是觉得\n\n句子经典，迎合了自己当时自学模式识别的努力背景\n不符合英文对话语境，应该不是原文。我当时估计挺较真，对英文也还敏感\n\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"理财的底牌","url":"/%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%95%E4%BB%93.html","content":"\n每一种金融资产，都有底层资产，买股票，就是买这个公司的股份；买国债，就是把钱借给国家；买MBS，就是买了银行的应收账款，也即买了银行的资产。\nMBS资产证券化\n\n你的贷款是大家的资产+收益，企业债亦同理\n\n银行是不满足于你缓慢还款赚点利息的，要提高资金运用效率和减少期限错配风险。放给你房贷后，后续操作是把你的借条让点利卖出去，买到这张借条的公司相当于赚了，只是条件是需要30年才到手 （这家公司可以是保险公司，也可以是理财公司）。\n他们也不会等30年，把买到的这一堆借条作为一个整体打包投放在金融市场上，举例总额100亿，比如民生发展基金AE，谁都可以来买，标注为低风险，年利率2.75%，然后很快手里有闲钱的客户就买光了这100亿。假如这批理财计划除去要付给客户的利息，将净赚10亿到手（100万贷款30年，利息3.95%，利息共有70w。刨掉提前还贷，100亿赚10亿还是很有保障的），实际收益远超10亿，因为支付给用户的钱，也不是一下付清的，周转流动还有额外的收益。\n\n滚动执行，例如先留下5亿缓慢支付客户利息，然后拿剩余的钱，继续去银行那里买借条，借条卖出去银行又可以放贷了，买回来后又可以发基金债权了。雪球越买越大，直到每个人都背负到债务为止。\nMBS流程如下：\n\nsequenceDiagram\n    购房者->>银行:还款计划\n    银行-->>购房者:贷款\n    银行->>SPV:应收账款\n    SPV-->>银行:证券化\n    SPV->>发售机构:理财产品\n    发售机构-->>SPV:资金\n    发售机构->>散户:理财产品\n    散户-->>发售机构:投资\n    散户->>保险集团:保费\n    保险集团-->>散户:风险损失\n\nSPV:Special Purpose Vehicle：特殊目的载体，为实现破产隔离创设的法律实体。它是接受发起人的资产组合，并发行以此为支持的证券的特殊实体。整个资产证券化运行机制中的最核心的设计，风险隔离机制，SPV一般由信用级别较高的机构来做。\n基本操作流程就是从资产原始权益人（即发起人）处购买证券化资产，以自身名义发行资产支持证券进行融资，再将所募集到的资金用于偿还购买发起人基础资产的价款。\n\n打包的证劵，对散户来说，就是买理财产品；钱流向发售证券的机构，在通过一系列的机构，流向银行。这些证劵的投资本金和收益，就等银行收到房贷之后，用这笔钱来兑付。对金融机构来说，就是融资，有抵押品的融资，抵押品可以是自己的应收账款，或者不动产，或者未来收益的现金流等，几乎是万物皆可打包。与MBS类似的理财产品很多，如有ABS（底层资产比MBS更多元一些，如高速公路的过路费），不过现在不叫ABS了，叫REITs。还有CDO（担保债务凭证，主要以各种现金流为底层资产，打包成证券，如别人欠自己的债务，保险公司未来收的保费等）。\n万一购房者不还房贷了，买MBS的钱，银行拿什么来兑付呢？谁来承担这个风险？大部分投资者就看看理财产品的名称，也看不底层资产是个啥。保障金融产品的保险，名称上有个专门术语，叫信用违约互换，简称CDS（credit default swap），保险公司当然不是无偿做这个的，你要交保护费（或者由SPV交了）。2014年前后，P2P产品也有看展CDS，不过很快被监管部门叫停了。\n很多项目，前几年投入大量资金，该经营收钱的时候，撞上疫情，没有盈利，就收不回早期的成本，早期的债务该怎么还？历史不会简单的重复，但是却惊人的相似，名字大家都知道了或臭了就会发明一个新名词，REITs其实就是多年前的ABS，MBS这个名字可能也不会出现，而是换个名字再来。债务可能会打包成各种理财产品，城投债只会是个开始，更别说无实体的数据资产也允许并表装入城投平台。\n以书面风格再讲一遍\n5年期以上贷款，房贷占比很高。众所周之它是最优质的金融产品，也是银行的最爱。为了最大程度发挥资金的使用效率（循环使用），一个叫做RMBS的次级金融产品就诞生了，直译过来就是住房贷款抵押支持证劵。简单来说银行将住房贷款包装成资产包经评级机构评级后，卖给其他金融机构，投资人的来源主要是保险公司，大型的资产管理公司，社保或者其它的公募基金。\n举例子一般保险公司亦非常喜欢这样的底层资产，一是时间足够长，收益非常稳定，期限和保险类产品匹配，作为底层资产设计成保险类产品，如分红险，全能险，卖还给投保者。银行把个人住房贷款以资产包的形式卖给了保险公司，换回资金，再利用这笔资金用于继续发放个人住房贷款业务。循环往复，相得益彰。\n通过杠杆投资，优先劣后分级，机构一般都能获得比较稳定且安全的投资回报。中国这些年的RMBS产品规模是逐年升高。20年是4011亿，21年5000亿，截止22年末，存量规模差不多在1万亿左右，体量不小，机构多，已经产品金融化，关联化，不同的金融机构高度融合，非常难以剥离。\n净值法银行理财\n\n当前债券型理财的估值方法，已经由摊余成本法全面转向了市值法。\n\n成本摊余法基本上按照几年确定能偿还，做出来的斜率直线。\n\n之前债券基本从不违约，自从2014年开始首例违约，14~18年间违约数量和规模也较小，但在2018年后，数量开始激增，所以再用摊余成本法去估值，对后面的投资者就非常不公平了，后面赎回的人就是来填坑的。\n\n前几年的理财产品都刚兑了，其中有一部分就是挪用的现在还没到期的理财产品的本金。\n\n2018年资产新规后，去刚兑，要求银行理财净值化。债券是标准化产品每天都可以交易，二级市场上的定价能及时反映债券的风险。例如3年期票息5%的公司债，假设是5年前的恒大，如日中天大而不倒，那时债券都能卖到101元，但是现在恒大未到期的债券在市场上20块都不到，市值法是可以立刻反映债券风险。\n摊余成本法是一路向上固收思路，净值法的波动是比较大的。如债券发行主体信用发生波动，也会受到流动性和利率影响的波动。债券熊是资金面比较紧张的时候，债券价格下跌。赎回踩踏也会加剧波动，加大亏损。\n估值大幅回撤\n你信22年是资金面紧张的原因吗？我不太信各路传媒说的，我更信大额赎回为首发导火索（之于大额赎回来自哪里，就没人说了。要么知晓信用波动内情想从窟窿提前爬出来，要么杠杆耍起来受不了各类风吹草动）。\n\n\n10年期国债收益率，这个是债券市场的锚定标的。债券收益率和债券价格是反向关系，收益率飙涨，就意味着整个债券市场的价格出现大跌\n\n\n\n十年期国债收益率从上涨后，波动不大，理财净值又开始慢慢爬坡\n\n债券市场波动引发理财产品估值大幅回撤，但11月11日以来十年期国债利率上行，幅度占有12%，相比2013年钱荒，2016年债市去杠杆，调整幅度其实小得多。但二级资本债，信用债等理财公司配置重点成为重灾区，收益率普遍上行50-60个基点。不分杠杆高的基金几乎抹平全年收益，收益为负的理财产品占比近50%。\n2022年以来一直维持低利率，债市加杠杆现象抬头，导致整个市场对“利率反转”极为敏感。增厚固收一般有三个途径：信用下沉，拉长久期，加杠杆。\n在经济下行背景下， 投资者一般会控制久期，对信用下沉也有顾虑，故普遍采用加杠杆的方式增厚收益，市场整体杠杆水平偏高。市场上资金极度充沛，MLF都不再是市场短期资金定价的锚，市场机构普遍借短买长，运用杠杆套利。\n疫情、房地产是困扰我国经济的重要因素，但反而是债券牛市的支撑，随着疫情防控措施优化，金融稳地产措施出台等超市场预期，开始触发本轮债市调整。可市场对流动性变化过度反应，市场利率整体反转，基金专户大量抛售债券，下跌-赎回-抛售的通道构建出来，触发广大投资者跟随，市场巨额赎回发生，各家理财公司纷纷发布公告解释安抚客户情绪，然而金融机构的可信任度是要存疑的（管理比较严的保险资金实体可能好过银行），谁跑得慢谁慢慢爬坑，封闭期理财的着实叫挣扎无门，洗干净脖子享受。\n调整存量房贷利率\n降低存量房贷是一件困难的事情，因为牵扯的利益方多，难协调\n\n如果这时有人说我要提前还贷，100w（30年共220w到总还款额），加上违约金一共还120万，可银行已经150w把这笔借条卖出去了，买到借条的人把它220w的价值卖给市场了，相当于100w的收益不存在了，人少银行可以闷声吃这个亏，因为利润兜得住，已卖的也没事，但要从银行这个窗口处控制已卖出的借条的风险爆发太快。\n有人本来能赚到的钱没赚到，是可能发不出工资的\n\n金融机构自身毫无动力，所以当住建部喊话时，金融机构根本不鸟。做出调整，银行利率、保险公司费率、公募基金收益率都要变化，投资人的预期收益率就会降，关键这些投资人还不是普通的投资人，都是境内外的大型财团或者国资背景的投资人。\n这种一连串的政策调整，不仅仅牵扯到央行一家，乃是多监管方协调。另外，银行自身的经营压力，存款金额不断攀升，放贷却放不出去，这几年放给开发商钱也难收回来，放不出去的存款就是负债，银行的ROE就靠个人住房贷款这种优质业务在续命。\n23.8.31强力靴子落地\n最高层有介入，作为行动方案的统一制定者，消除各部门的隔阂，才得以持续的推进。才出现831官宣政策，要求9.25号前落实。\n真实可能是为了缓解因坏账率激增和提前还贷压力而导致的银行经营的萎缩。23年法拍房比去年增了20%，30.4w套，住宅占法拍增量的59%，成交只有5.2w套，远不及增长的速度（拍不出去）。\n\n\n一旦法拍房低于原评估值的70%，就可能意味着银行会承受损失，银行坏账的绝对数值在攀升。\n\n\n提前还款也意味着优质业务萎缩，收入减少，存款增加，双重打击。当前的数据可能就体现了这种风险趋势。\n\n\n非对称吊诡\n上一周非对称降息，市场哗然，股市又是一片韭绿。不调5年期LPR，也就是手心手背都是肉。\n\n一是降低了资本市场的影响，对冲MLF带来的收益率下降的预期，投资人对资本市场会有些交代。\n二是对外展示了我们没有通过行政干预利率市场，LPR的降低是银行之间的市场行为，和政府无关，所以面子里子我们都有了。\n第三点5年期LPR不变，可以保持国债收益率稳定，缓冲美债收益率压力。\n\n存量房贷利率政策\n加点央行壁上观\n当年是你们加的点数，现在你们只能去调低加点数，将降低存量房贷的皮球踢回给了各地政府和银行，这次也由你们自己来决定，央行做壁上观。\n你的房贷利率能降多少，取决于两个关键因素：\n\n贷款发放时间\n以及所在城市首套房贷利率政策下限。\n\n影响降幅多少的“分水岭”就是2022年5月15日，因为自那日起，全国首套房贷利率政策下限调整为LPR减20个基点。\n若那时你贷款所在城市首套房贷利率下限与全国下限一致，而你当时的贷款利率是LPR加50个基点，那么就会有两种情况。\n\n\n第一种情况，如果贷款是在2022年5月14日或之前发放，这次利率最低能调整到LPR，可下降50个基点；\n\n\n第二种情况，如果贷款是5月15日及以后发放的，最低能调整到LPR减20个基点，可下降70个基点\n\n\n高线城市高高在上\n当然也有城市首套房贷利率下限与全国下限不一致。拿北京来说，从房贷利率“换锚”伊始，就在全国政策下限LPR的基础上“因城施策”加了55个基点。如你当时在北京正赶上信贷供给偏紧、利率走高，合同利率签订为LPR加135个基点。这次则可和银行协商，最多可降低的加点幅度是80个基点，降到签订合同当年北京首套房贷利率政策下限，即LPR加55个基点，sigh！\n幸哉无需客户申请，是本次的效率之举。真是个人自发去跟银行协商，那银行的柜面文书工作都得忙死。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"生活好看吗","url":"/%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E5%A5%BD%E7%9C%8B%E5%90%97.html","content":"\n\n牛角尖视角\nQ : 你看这张照片好看吗？\nA : 不好看。\nQ : 那缩小看全部呢？\nA : 诶[éi]，我觉得挺好看。\nQ : 谁他么会这么看照片啊？\nA : 嗯，你说的对！我只是用我们经常看事情/问题/生活的方式去看照片而已。\n\n用视频表达更形象\n\n可惜抖音视频都有防盗链，引入进来用不了多久就失效了\n\n视频传送门\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["哲理"]},{"title":"用户思维","url":"/%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html","content":"\n要的不是产品\n要的是打造卓越表现的用户\n不是打造卓越的产品，而是卓越表现的用户\n\n在一个场景里实现\n打造用户的能力和渴望（意愿）是KeyPoint\n\n设计一些方法建立用户的信心（难以掌握的技能，需要做技能/功能的拆分）\n排除障碍，对用户的支持和鼓励，也是非常重要的点\n\n\n\n渴望营造\n\n清除障碍，激动人心的分段路径设计\n消耗用户认知资源的产品设计是失败的, don’t let 用户 think(思考，记忆)\n即学即用式学习，优于储备式学习\n\n\n不是一杆子打死的，储备式学习很有用（例如外科医生）\n\n重视情绪\n\n\n\n用户往往无法分层次说出他的体验，能展现只是他的情绪\n情绪是底层操作系统\n人欲即天理，做产品要尊重人欲\n\n\n理性知识的调用需要时间和思考，而用户情绪却是一瞬间的体验\n\n用户本质的心理诉求\n\n贪嗔痴\n愉悦、不爽、愤怒、恐惧\n\n愉悦、不爽 是一对，关键词是【 满足】\n愤怒、恐惧 是一对，关键词是 【侵犯】\n\n\n\n\n用户是否通过我们的服务得到了满足，持续的确定性满足，会上瘾\n\n需求怎么看\n痛点\n不是难受，是恐惧；怕长胖\n爽点\n即时满足；火锅酣畅淋漓\n痒点\n满足虚拟自我；网红餐厅，拍照\n升空来看\n\n\n产品能力是一种建立信息秩序，再而建立内心秩序的学习建立认知框架的过程，得到结构化的体系（大而整）。\n\n\n在一片纷杂里，知道自己该放弃哪些点，抓住哪些点，慢慢建立起掌控（知轻重）\n\n\n如果我们不追求这些，与人类形而上的进步能力是违背的，没有这个过程，就没有人类的进步，相对而言也是个人的进步\n打造产品的过程\n\n\n打造产品的过程，是一种定义用户，定义价值，打造增长的过程。\n\n\n价值主张决定了产品和服务的边界。\n\n\n用户画像+故事地图+精益迭代 是一个靠谱的路数\n\n\n营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚\n内容略，想想网红Apps或产品，即是一个道理\n\n还可以参阅另一篇记录 产品意识 的老文章的同名章节\n\n误区提醒\n\n以输出服务的视角而非输出产品的视角来引领工作，能助你看到更正确的目标，多数情况下用户要的并不是一个你要售卖的产品，而是一个产品带来的服务。\n\n\n常规的例子就是钻孔和钻机的比喻\n\n\n把解决方案看作是对问题的定义，相当高几率处理的就是一个被误解的问题\n\n意识到问题是什么，这依赖于常识、经验、归纳内省、反向思维、用户意识和敏捷意识\n\n\n避免成为铁锤人，多用拿来主义\n\n内省归纳\n\n\n推演大家都能用都会用的基本需求，很多个性需求都是不必做的\n\n\n不要尝试解决所有的问题/服务所有的客户，用户如果连某些最简解决方案理解能力都没有，那么他们遇到的问题就不仅仅在你们这\n\n隧道开关灯，你只需提醒你的灯亮着吗？电池电的问题他们自己会看护\n\n\n\n跳出知识诅咒，逼迫自己变成傻瓜看待产品（立体思维模型）\n\n\n本质思考，Stay Hungury，Stay Foolish\n\n\n\n经验可贵，常识无价\n\n后记\n这篇的主要触发点还是最近听的一堂电子课，用户思维，兼具一些梁宁的内容，与几年前的产品意识，是一种呼应。现在的自己写东西可能会更加精简，一些激情式的表达更加少见了。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究"]},{"title":"电子游戏史话","url":"/%E7%94%B5%E5%AD%90%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E5%8F%B2.html","content":"\n最近看了一本《游戏学》，涉嫌给游戏洗地，想必是学界的人写的，更多冷门的东西都有人作书立传，更别说这么大的产业了，一天就看完了 ，权且当做了解技术之外的历史也是挺好的，还是有些框架性的收获，能解一些惑。\n游戏发展史\n美国篇\n\n美国游戏历史发展连贯，自1947年第一个电子游戏（阴极射线管娱乐装置）诞生，第一个主机游戏（1967 Brown Box），电脑游戏（1962，太空战争），第一个网游，第一个手游（1994 俄罗斯方块，贪吃蛇还要靠后），多类游戏均诞生在美国。期间经历过家用游戏平台重量不重质的雅达利崩溃，让位让日本游戏主机厂商有了居上的契机。总体上美国游戏产业始终健康发展，形成主机，端游，手游三足鼎立局面，也在主要的主机游戏中形成任天堂，索尼及微软三足鼎立的稳定态势。\n\n苹果两位创始人都曾是雅达利的游戏开发工程师，他们在1974年一同合作，仅用4天就完成了一个《打砖块》的雏形游戏–《突出重围》-- 关卡升级玩法机制的越狱游戏，首次加入了斜角度物体运动概念，反弹两侧墙壁造成连锁撞击效果\n\n第一个电脑游戏\n\n当时的电脑大多借由打孔卡或磁带来输入及输出资料、令人感到乏味，而PDP-1有显示器的设备，使MIT的几个学生下决心基于PDP-1开发游戏，玩家需各自控制一架可发射导弹的太空飞行器争取击毁对方。为了兼顾真实性与可玩性，进行了各种设计，例如使用实际的星图制作背景并设计星等、限制太空船的鱼雷数量及燃料、只在恒星周遭有重力的设计、以及可进行超空间跳跃等设计。当时PDP-1价值120000美金，对一般民众而言过于昂贵，使《太空大战》难以成为商品。但游戏程序在美国各学校广为流传。\n\n第一个主机游戏\n1955 年，在美国国防设备承包商劳拉公司工作的拉尔夫·贝尔接到了一个任务——制造世界上最好的电视机。就在完成任务的过程中，他突然有了一个非常新颖的想法，此时的他并不知道他的这个想法在后来改变了整个娱乐行业，这就是“电视游戏”。但早期造价太贵定无市场。\n11年后的1966年，彩色电视机的出现和电子原件材料价格的下降使得美国的电视机数量已经达到4000万台之巨。基本家家有一台，但只能坐等晚上6点收看”新闻联播“，贝尔认为这其中大有可为，把有些频道用来打游戏杀时间最为合适。\n从1966年9月开始，贝尔就开始和同事利用空闲时间来制作原型机，最初的原型机12月造出来，可以在电视屏幕上显示和移动一条垂直的线，这款简单到发指的游戏得到了公司主管的2500美元资助，第七次迭代机出现，就是下图的brown box\n\n\n外壳采用实木材质，通体棕色，全世界仅有一台。内置了数款游戏，包括国际象棋，手球，高尔夫球，乒乓球等，甚至还顺带设计出世界第一款设计游戏，并配套开发了世界第一款光枪外设。靠电池驱动，已具备后代游戏机的一些特征，两个控制器，使用卡带等，但这个卡带并无存储读写能力，只是通过控制不同电路闭合切换集成在主机电路板上的程序，相当于一个开关而已。\n\n商业化的Odyssey\n不过这个游戏机后来加以改进并1972年商品化，就是Odyssey，售价100美元，Odyssey于1974年停产，短短两年售出33w台，外加8万把光枪，算是差强人意，当年媒体不发达，宣传出了一些偏差，导致很多人误认为Odyssey只有搭配厂商生产的电视才能运行，一定程度影响了主机的销量。那时的游戏也简陋，有些球类游戏计分板没有，靠玩家用纸笔手动计分。产品包装里除了主机卡带，还附带筹码卡牌之类的玩意，：）\n\n奥德赛能够在屏幕上显示三个正方形的点和一条垂直线。两个点由两个玩家控制，第三个由系统本身控制。主控制台有两个旋钮，一个旋钮在屏幕上移动垂直线，另一个旋钮可调节计算机控制的点的速度。也就是我们熟悉的“PONG”《乓》的最初版本。\n\n虽然Odyssey没登陆日本，但这一新兴事物引起了日本老牌玩具厂商的注意，这就是任天堂。\n独立章-主机篇\n美国市场以主机游戏为主，2017年主机游戏占全部游戏平台比例为47%，此前主机游戏占比更高。\n\n1970年代是街机的黄金时代，这一时期代表作有雅达利的《乓》和《电脑空间》，南宫梦的《吃豆人》，太东公司的《太空侵略者》等。雅达利在1972年诞生，不仅仅是游戏开发商，还是街机和主机硬件制造商，其它厂商也为雅达利主机做游戏，这种灵活方式导致厂商可自由地开发和发布游戏，充斥在市场中相当一部分游戏质量非常糟糕，1982年，质量低劣和数量供大于求，玩家对这些游戏彻底失去兴趣，雅达利从此一蹶不振。\n\n街机游戏的诞生\n1971年，美国计算机工程师诺兰在《宇宙战争》基础上，设计了一个叫做《电脑空间》的游戏，规则和《宇宙战争》大同小异，玩家控制自己的宇宙飞船用导弹攻击对方的船，但具有引力的场所由屏幕中央的黑洞变成了移动的星体。他把一台与装好《电脑空间》的电脑，装上外壳和可以投币控制的开关，放在了一家提供弹珠游戏的酒吧，这就是世界上第一台商用投币式电子游戏机，也就是我们所说的街机。他坚信电子游戏不仅仅属于计算机技术的领域，一定具有巨大商业价值，创立了人类历史上第一个电子游戏公司—雅达利（Atari Inc，这词来源于日语中的围棋术语–”叫吃“）\n\n不可思议的成功\n雅达利公司成立的一个月后，就开发完成了《乓》- Pong，放到酒吧里第二天老板便打来电话：你们的机器出故障了，一个币都投不进去。赶过去打开机箱，发现是因为机器早就被1200个25分硬币塞满了，游戏一天内就征服了酒吧的客人，还让很多从来不去酒吧的人，专程来酒吧一睹芳容。因为雅达利前期资金不足和申请专利进度较慢，市场被抄袭者占领了一大部分（2/3），《乓》的山寨版也是电子游戏史上最早的盗版游戏。\n家用机宇宙\n雅达利的专利被他人捷足先登，没办法只能继续创新，维持自己在电子游戏市场的领先地位，促成了家用游戏机的兴盛，他也在1977年发售了雅达利2600，打破了游戏与机身的绑定，开创了游戏主机和游戏软件分开销售的商业模式，仅1981年，雅达利2600的销售额就突破了10亿美元，1982年甚至接近30亿美元，整个生命周期全球发售3000w台，共2687个游戏在这个平台上发售。\n任天堂和《大金刚》-- 日本登场\n\n1981年任天堂发售《大金刚》-Donkey Kong，玩家扮演水管工跳跳人（Jumpman）跳过场景里不断滚来的木桶，躲过火焰锤子等障碍物，爬上层层梯子，从大猩猩”大金刚“手里，解救跳跳人的女友宝琳（Pauline），这是游戏史上第一个可进行跳跃动作的游戏。\n其影响力之深远，不是因为游戏本身，而是让任天堂在该作成功后，坚定了在电子游戏领域持续发展的决心，从传统玩具公司转型，巨大投入电子游戏产业和创新，推动了几次重大变革。\n1983年发售Family Computer家用游戏机时（当时性能最好，价格最便宜，8位CPU专用图像处理器PPU），增添了划时代的游戏控制器设计- 十字方向键，几乎为所有家用游戏机沿用。大金刚的主角色跳跳人在83年的街机游戏《马里奥兄弟》中正式改名为马里奥，走向了成为游戏明星的第一步。1985年9月13发售的《超级马里奥兄弟》，使其成为一个传奇。将卷轴玩法（2D水平面上使用各种方式令游戏角色穿过障碍，到达终点的游戏方式，画面会随着角色移动而平移）进一步发扬光大。融合了跳跃，踩踏攻击，角色变身，多重组合关卡，道具收集，隐藏奖励，位置传送，迷宫，水下场景，Boss战等多种系统创新，加上精准的动作设计，成为完成度极高的集大成作品。\n任天堂对游戏设计，制造，发行的整个流程，都进行了精细化的监督和管理，排除了浑水摸鱼的小型厂商和粗制滥造的游戏作品的出现，对游戏品质的提升有非常明显的作用，成为行业奉行准则。\n\n游戏厂商需向任天堂交高额的平台授权费\n加盟厂每年发售的游戏数量有限制，内容需经任天堂审核通过才允许发售\n卡带制造和销售都由任天堂官方全权代理\n\n世嘉与刺猬索尼克\n\n世嘉公司在88年也推出了游戏主机MD（搭载两块CPU和专用PCM声音处理系统），其战略布局是重点经营海外市场，决定创造一个可以和马里奥分庭抗礼的游戏角色，角色特征要反映MD的性能–快速，设计出了刺猬索尼克，仍然是卷轴平台游戏模式，但突出的是”高速冲刺“理念。\n任天堂为了应对MD的冲击，90年11月推出了16位游戏机，在控制器中首创了肩部按键L/R, 维持了竞争优势。\n一众历史开创作品\n\n89年已经有《波斯王子》，经典关卡设计和出众的分镜头动画\n\n90年已经有《F-Zero》赛车游戏，伪3D效果\n\n92年《重返德军司令部3D》，经典的第一人称设计游戏，打下了现在游戏图像产业的地基\n\n93年的《神秘岛》，预渲染技术现在或许已过时，当时画面上的确超越了所有对手\n索尼PS逼上梁山\n\n90年代初，技术领先的街机游戏开始了从2D游戏到3D游戏的技术革新，家用游戏机显得技术落后，几乎无法完美移植任何主流街机作品，这时需要破坏进入者出现。92年Sony原计划与任天堂合作生产CD-ROM版SFC新主机，但得到了任天堂单方面撕毁合作协议的消息。此时，PlayStation已经基本完成，如果此时退出面临巨额损失，于是索尼独立进军游戏产业，PS搭载32位CPU，独立拥有GPU，带有1MB显存，运算能力每秒150万多边形，24位色彩取样深度，可显示16.7百万色，研发带独特震动功能和双摇杆的控制器，是第一部真正拥有成熟3D处理能力的家用游戏机，家用机进入了第五代。\n索尼早期单方游戏研发实力较弱，故采取了较宽松的授权和审查制度，不同于任天堂，PS平台的软件阵容，拥有压倒性的优势。代表游戏《最终幻想7》，融汇了当时最先进的3D即时渲染和CG技术，划时代的精美画面，宏大的世界观架构，感人至深故事设定，优秀的游戏系统，成为了日式角色扮演游戏的代表性作品。第五代中比PS发售更早的世嘉Saturn，还是性能远超PS的任天堂N64，都没能阻止PS的全面成功。\n世嘉领先成先烈\n98年急于挽回市场劣势的世嘉，发售新主机Dreamcast，揭开了家用6代机的序幕，搭载当时非常先进的200MHz的CPU和拥有100MHz的GPU，拥有划时代的图形处理性能，将调制解调器作为标准配置，全面支持线上游戏，不幸，刚刚投入市场，显示芯片产能不足，货源严重短缺，持续一年多，白白浪费了竞争中赢得先机的机会。2000年3月4号索尼的PS2上市后，DC仍未充分供货处境变得更加困难，2001年初世嘉宣布永久退出家用游戏机市场，变成纯粹的游戏软件厂商。\n微软气粗\n微软在2001年11月15发布第一台搭载了奔腾3的XBox，加上英伟达的显卡Geforce3，配置堪比一台当时的主流PC，在六代机中拥有压倒性的最强性能，跻身主流游戏主机厂商队伍。\n正是因为氪金玩家下场，第一把就想放个大礼花，所以堆配置过高，64MB DDR内存，DVD-ROM，百兆网卡，5.1声道环绕声（当时唯一），产能和系统集成跳票，错过了领先于PS2的先发时机，没能激起预期的狂潮，不敌如日中天的PS2，但挤掉了任天堂的NGC成为主机销量第二。\n\n错过先机，但困不住富豪，亏钱抢市场（卖一台Xbox，就要亏126美元），售价比单买Geforce显卡还便宜30美金。\n\n比尔刚开始是想收购任天堂的，氪金玩家舍我其谁，通过收购方式入局，而当时任天堂主机规格不如sony，但手握大量现金，也风生水起，理念和商业策略也不一致，不同意合并。最终盖茨决定自己来，开发真正流淌微软血液的主机。\n好玩的游戏才是购买主机的最大动力，或许这也是任天堂的看法，所以对xbox的秀肌肉不感冒。微软也砸钱收购游戏公司为xbox开发独占游戏《光环》，也是一款业界影响深远的作品\n\n任天堂体感逆袭\n\n第七代出现了体感游戏，2006年任天堂Wii投放市场，没有像对手专注提升主机性能，而是革新游戏的操作方式，重新激活了玩家的客厅，很多轻度游戏玩家加入了Wii的阵营，第一款《Wii Sports》大获成功，取得8272万套全球销量，是人类历史上销量最高的电子游戏，自然成为第七代中最成功的家用机。\n总结\n主机游戏和主机的绑定性，使得这一领域具有天然的垄断性质，市场格局形成后，后进入者更加困难。\n中国篇\n中国的游戏产业几乎没参与主机游戏时代，PC单机游戏也因网游的带来而黯然失色，凭借网络人口的红利，网游大爆发，巨大的市场利润也使得国内游戏厂商更多选择代理游戏而非自主研发。\n\n2012年前的网游时代，中国饱受盗版困扰，转入运营并依靠运营发展壮大。这种背景下，中国玩家也只能愿意忍受低一些的游戏版本和质量。网游更看重运营，社交属性和持续收费模式决定了游戏不仅仅在于研发，更在于游戏的管理和运营。中国以手游和客户端游戏为主，2017年，手游占市场近60%的份额，客户端游戏仅次于手游，2016年之前，客户端PC游戏更多\n\n中国游戏从1994年开始（诞生第一个真正自己研发的游戏，北京金盘电子有限公司出品的《神鹰突击队》，实际上没什么销量和影响），经历游戏禁令（2000-2014，14年的深远影响，一方面阻碍本土主机游戏发展，使得技术差距越来越大，一方面阻碍国外主机游戏进入中国市场，所以主机游戏未能孕育），到2013年引发全民手机游戏热潮，后来居上。游戏产值在2016年超过美国。中国游戏元年晚了美国47年，错过时代。不仅仅是我国，东亚邻居如韩国也起步晚了，只能跳过发力网游。2000年前的游戏史，基本就是美国和日本的游戏史，别的国家参加都不算大角色。\n\n\n早期甚至有纯文字类游戏，动作展现也是文字叙述。国内文字MUD大多数以武侠为主题，跟我们的文化密不可分。\n\n\n主机山寨\n1980年代，主机游戏也进入中国市场，价格昂贵，购买途径有限，更多还是山寨产品，以“小霸王”最出名，游戏也多是国外游戏的盗版汉化版本。\n游戏禁令\n2000年6月，国务院审核通过了《关于开展电子游戏经营场所专项治理的意见》，以预防青少年沉迷游戏，以及电子游戏对身心成长带来的潜在伤害。”面向国内的电子游戏设备及其零附件生产，销售即行停止，任何企业个人不得再从事面向国内的电子游戏设备及其零部件的生产，销售活动“，主机游戏在合法市场上销声匿迹，还没来得及发展便胎死腹中。\n2014年解禁，PS4，Xbox进入中国，主机游戏市场有所增长，但增速缓慢，2017年所占比例只有0.7%。\n仙侠/武侠原创\n金山西山居的《剑侠情缘》系列最初只是对台湾大宇《仙剑奇侠传》的模仿，但随后西山居推出了剑侠情缘的单机和网游续作，《剑侠情缘网络版三》取得了巨大的成功。\n运营发力\n\n盛大代理的韩国游戏《传奇》取得了巨大的成功，奠定了那个年代玩家对游戏的认知，时至今日，众多页游手游的风格继续延续《传奇》的风格。2004泡泡堂的收费道具模式开始后，从2006年，中国网游全面转向免费模式。\n腾讯早期一直在避开红海，搞成了棋牌游戏平台后，也不自己搞MMORPG，自2007-2009，代理了三款不同类型的游戏，第一人称射击游戏《穿越火线CF》，横版格斗游戏《地下城与勇士DNF》，MOBA《英雄联盟LOL》，这不得不说眼光独到，这三款游戏都在各自的分类中牢牢占据第一的位置，带来了可观的利润，都是免费+内置付费的模式，这种模式和盗版游戏站在同一个竞争起点，精心策划的运营，使这批游戏保持了比盗版游戏更持久的生命力。\n中美差异\n\n美国电子游戏产业”研发为王“的态势从主机时代便延续下来，消费者也养成了固定的消费审美与习惯，对游戏体验的高要求使得玩家仍主要通过主机和PC体验高品质的游戏体验，手游端更多承担休闲娱乐等轻游戏的内容。中国游戏产业发展依托巨大的人口红利，网游凭借快速发展的通信设施，手游随着移动互联网的高速发展及更低的准入门槛让更多的民众参与其中。手游的广大市场正在倒逼中国游戏研发能力提升。\n主机游戏在美国担负着重度游戏的承载者，美国手游和主机游戏分工不同，手游只作为主机游戏的替代和补充，以轻度休闲为主。主机游戏配合更高的游戏配置，拥有更好的游戏体验感，且主机和主机游戏相对价格不高，所以决定了市场不同。\n起步差距\n中国早期的盗版时代，玩家主动付费意愿低，加之网游的竞争，孕育尚需时日。买断式的盈利模式下，美国把游戏当成普通文化娱乐产品。中国内购为主的游戏模式，游戏变成一个免费公园，充值才能变强的观念深入人心。\n\n内购付费的倡导者是盛大，在《泡泡堂》中第一次采用，大家纷纷效仿，这种方式与网吧模式结合，与去网吧租赁电脑花费模式相似。\n\n游戏产业的起步差距47年，导致游戏人才培养的巨大差异，游戏人才培养以专科为主，美国以开设相关硕博学位。中国重点在学习如何培养，提升游戏玩家的付费转化率问题时，美国游戏人才更多在思考什么是游戏，如何建立游戏的规则，如何通过游戏表达自我，这也造就两国研发创新能力的差异。\n人才培养\n\n游戏顶层设计人才的欠缺使得我国难以做出如欧美具有丰富故事性及宏大视角的游戏，一部分也因如今产业”运营为王“的格局所造成，游戏巨头已开发出一套成熟的游戏生产流程，再凭借资源的优势及优秀的运营手段，可以高效地实现收益，没有动力去开发大作。随着游戏产值的提高，其发展质量也将引起人们更多关注，届时游戏设计人才的培育也会逐渐引起关注并逐渐完善。\n美国游戏专业更多设置是硕士学位，本科专业相对较少，多半开在计算机或电影相关学院之下，通常分游戏技术开发和游戏策划制作人，游戏美术方向。专业基础课程包括编程，3D，声音设计，囊括游戏历史，游戏设计，除了基础课程，还允许选取感兴趣的方向如叙事游戏，严肃游戏，桌游等，还会提供游戏设计中的人文，历史，行为，心理等知识。主机平台玩家对游戏故事性和画面都有高要求，使得美国游戏专业更注重整体设计的培养。\n国内人才岗位大致分为三类，以编程为主的技术方向，以绘画3D建模为主的美术方向，以游戏内容设计为主的制作人（仅中国传媒大学有本科相关专业）方向，前两者培养较为完善，跟”重运营，轻设计“的模式使得游戏生产趋于工业化也有关系。\n产业数据\n2017年中国腾讯（181.2亿美元）和网易（55.76亿美元）合计占86%的国内市场份额，有游戏版号的共2614家，剩余的2612家分13.8%的市场，北京游戏企业最多，682家，广东489家次之，上海438家，浙江183家，江苏123家。年收￥5亿以上的游戏厂家，18家，可见头部企业挣的远远的多于尾部的。尾部企业更多是走游戏细分市场路线，如哔哩哔哩虽然是视频门户公司，主营收入84%来自游戏（￥20.16亿），主打二次元用户，主打御宅风格游戏。\n美国的头部游戏公司，仍以主机游戏，PC游戏为主，沿用IP资源，很少进行手游创新，在美国的手游新贵公司的股东中，不少是来自中国的游戏公司。相较于主机，PC游戏，手游的研发要求不高（Unity游戏引擎以降低开发者门槛闻名全球，相较于PC游戏，Unity引擎更适合做手机游戏，如《王者荣耀》，《炉石传说》等著名手游均采用Unity引擎开发，掌趣科技在2014年投资参股Unity公司1.5%的股权），所以尽管中国游戏研发实力弱，但依然能做出好的手游产品。\nTop15的游戏厂商，都有手游页游业务，巨头都想搞游戏，渠道商把控流量入口也期望通过游戏变现，逐利行为屡见不鲜。\n2017年中国游戏人群6亿，仅游戏人口就超越美国总人口，腾讯以近两倍的收入额超过第二名的索尼，成为全球第一大游戏公司，网易第7，完美世界第20\n里程碑手游\n\n\n1994 俄罗斯方块移植\n\n\n\n1997 贪吃蛇移植\n\n\n\n2009 愤怒的小鸟（玩法也是借鉴历史上的游戏）\n\n\n\n2010 水果忍者\n\n\n\n2011 神庙逃亡\n\n\n\n2012 保卫萝卜（中国）\n\n\n\n游戏玩家，心理诉求及对应的游戏行为\n\n\n\n动作（boom）-破坏-刺激\n\n破坏：追求混乱和损坏的诉求，这一类玩家是”爆炸就是艺术“的热衷者，破坏游戏场景元素寻求解压 《使命召唤》\n刺激：快节奏，激烈对抗的诉求，喜欢充满动作和惊险的游戏，期待通过自己的快速反应来获取奖励 《极品飞车》\n\n\n\n社交（一起玩吧）- 竞争 - 社群\n\n喜欢和其它玩家互动，包括合作和竞争。\n竞争：指玩家对抗比较的诉求，游戏中对决，对抗赛是他们的最爱。《王者荣耀》\n社群：追求友谊，合作的诉求，享受处于团队中并朝向一个目标前进的过程，相互聊天甚至倾诉心情 《魔兽世界》\n\n\n\n掌控（让我想想）- 挑战 - 战略\n\n挑战性的游戏体验，追求策略深度和高复杂度的游戏。\n挑战指对自身游戏能力展现和突破的诉求，玩家愿意花时间去打磨自己的技巧完成高难度的任务或BOSS，困难模式就是为他们设计的，还有一类&quot;速通玩家&quot;不断挑战更短的游戏通关记录。\n战略：游戏中表现高超决策和计划能力的诉求。享受权衡选择和相应结果的过程，如在资源和竞争性目标间的权衡，管理外交政策或想出最优的长期战略等，谨慎地调整资源消耗，人口增长等取得最终胜利。《部落战争》\n\n\n\n成就 - 完成 - 力量\n\n喜欢游戏中的数值成长，收集稀有物品。如任务，收集物，隐藏地图等，解锁所有成就或角色/动作行为。如《阴阳师》里的卡牌\n力量指在游戏中更强大力量的诉求，通常体现在游戏数值上，装备或道具。《地下城与勇士》\n\n\n\n沉浸 - 幻想 - 故事\n\n沉浸于有趣的故事，任务角色构建的游戏世界中，细分为幻想和故事两种\n幻想指体验不同人生/生活的诉求，角色扮演类，模拟经营类\n故事型愿意深入了解游戏的故事和角色，当做电影或小说一样去解读，感受人生或人性的微妙之处。\n\n\n\n创造 - 设计 - 发现\n\n喜欢不断尝试和实验游戏的交互编辑，通过设计和给个性化系统留下属于自己的作品。\n设计：体现自身创造力的诉求，对提供设计或定制化功能的游戏会更加偏爱。《我的世界》\n发现：探索游戏世界，体验游戏中的新奇的设置/反应的诉求，以游戏设计师预料之外的方式去试探游戏。《赛达尔传说》探索彩蛋。\n\n\n\n好的一面\n还有功能游戏这一方非议较少的净土，又称严肃游戏或应用型游戏，以解决现实社会和行为问题为主要功能诉求的游戏品类。是学习和实验的有效工具，用场景模拟化和游戏结合的方式提升教学效果。\n\n如2002年《金山打字通》，集打字练习和游戏于一体，2004驾驶模拟游戏《驾车高手》，宣传驾车安全知识。2015年职场培训游戏《满满学院》，2016年外科手术模拟游戏《柳叶刀客》，2018少年编程教育游戏《极客战记》，融入功能或教育意义。\n\n当然也有很好的贯穿宏大知识体系和财商教育或创造发挥的大型/流行游戏。除去好的，逐利的游戏确实应该被诟病，只不过是统治者的一份奶头乐社会安定工具罢了。\n里程碑手游看竞争\n农药传说\n王者荣哟作为近5年霸榜的MOBA（多人在线战术竞技游戏）游戏强者（15.11月内侧），其发迹前有何精彩故事可述说吗？\n2012年LOL已火遍世界，开启了电竞的新格局。腾讯也着手做准备，身处成都的卧龙工作室就整出一款端游《霸三国OL》，这便是农药故事的开端，农药中大部分英雄原画也是因此而来。\n\n但《霸三国OL》是RTS端游，4v4对战可操控小兵，画质优秀，但还没大展拳脚就遭遇变故。14年10月，腾讯游戏八大工作室解散重组。卧龙工作室和琳琅天下，天美艺游一起合并为天美工作室，《霸三国OL》也成为了天美的所有物。此时天美工作室负责人认为手游才是游戏界未来，为率先抢占MOBA手游市场，停止了《霸三国OL》的运营。在原有端游基础上着手开发新的MOBA手游–即为王者荣耀前身《英雄战迹》，但上百人打造的《英雄战迹》一上线就遭遇危机。\n《王者荣耀》目的是在MOBA端游爆火的大背景下，在尚未成型的MOBA手游市场中迅速占领制高点，但打着MOBA竞技第一手游的口号，却不是真正的MOBA玩法。看似休闲的1v1和3v3模式，让《英雄战迹》看起来更像是大乱斗模式的角色养成游戏，且连装备系统都没有。虽建模和画质不错，但一上线就受差评。同时光子工作室的MOBA手游《全民超神》，上线早几个月，下载量和好评都高很多。\n\n但《全民超神》也有自己一众前辈的老问题，做成了氪金游戏。虽然画风很贴近LOL，可培养机制的养成系统一样犯MOBA玩家忌，另外操作过于简单使得风头逐渐被农药压下去。\n市面上的更早的《自由之战》，由于英雄的不平衡，武器加成过高，也是氪金量大，违背MOBA竞技原则，趋向养成游戏，性能优化也差，逐步被潮流抛弃。\n还有一款《时空召唤》，贴近moba端游，但没请好声优，画质和打击感也差，还逐渐陷入骗氪活动的恶风。\n\n压力山大下，天美决定开启一众借鉴之路，三个月时间加班加点，听取玩家建议，大刀阔斧修改\n\n靠拢MOBA\n操作上学《自由之战》的双轮盘操作，提升操作手感\n简化游戏规则，短时间上手\n改名\n\n\n正所谓，在不占先机退无可退的情况下，狭路相逢勇者胜，你尽管努力，待对手的犯错的时机，一击必杀。\n\n新的变动-原神（赛尔达传说）\n\n市场终会出现挑战者，如现在风头挺劲的《原神》，抢占用户时间\n\n软硬件技术提升，移动游戏质量大进步，连吃鸡等过去只在PC和主机端出现的游戏品类也大规模移植到移动平台\n开放世界大作开发商们（如《刺客信条》，《荒野大镖客》，《侠盗飞车手》）彼时还对移动游戏兴趣平平，少有搬上移动平台的打算\n开放世界手游的奇思妙想还是被米哈游花了3年时间给掏出来了\n\n市场经过数年发展，也逐渐接受了日系游戏氪金抽卡机制付费模式\n\n\n多平台同步开发的游戏（主机，手游，PC等），才能打开出海的市场，当前出海文化输出要强过农药\n\n\n原神的成功离不开两个要素：米哈游深耕多年二次元赛道积累的卡通风格光影渲染技术 + 开放世界玩法（源自重度游戏更多的PC和主机平台）\n\n本质上原神和农药玩家是不同类型的，米哈游的游戏一贯是弱化社交，创始人也宅，热度同样会受后续同等级游戏的分流挑战。\n\n《王者荣耀-世界》出现，怪物猎人概念改版，原神玩家也高兴，可以给策划狗压力，让国内游戏市场卷起来，玩家受益\n\n原神不联机\n为啥不搞大型多人在线（MMO）\n\n玩个游戏是为了自己开心，新手玩的菜就得被人口吐芬芳？（不搞我伤害比你高顺带踩一脚的萌新恶臭环境）\n交流过多，欣赏美工，故事，配乐和其它精华部分的人就少了\n二次元玩家主体就是社恐怕麻烦，跟多人协作冲突\n技术挑战也是次要因素，运营成本高。反正来钱你还不是得靠商城？(游戏开发经验同样是很重要的，就仿似有些东西不可以用金钱快速堆出来，反映在原神身上的，就是其渣优化了)\n\n\n原神挣钱靠利用用户赌徒心理，收集心理，炫耀感，满足感来付费，充值抽卡，类似于日本的扭蛋，国内的盲盒\n\n大家都想明白了，MMO歧视弱玩家，这个品类弱势是必然，已很久没出新品了。除了魔兽，最终幻想没啥大玩家，付费能力强的玩家也没时间搞的像上班一样玩游戏了，千万别搞组队\n解读米哈游与原神\n米哈游是上交大三位大学生12年创立，旗下至今也只有寥寥几款手游。相比网易等公司，一年几十款手游的速度，米哈游真只能算弟弟，但是其崩坏系列，却成为二次元手游的标杆之作，特别是崩坏3的大获成功，一举奠定了米哈游在二次元手游的王者地位。\n\n用上一个游戏的应收，投下一个游戏的研发，是米哈游的传统，横版卷轴射击游戏《崩坏学园2》收益投入做3D动作游戏《崩坏3》，《崩坏3》收益投入做开放世界冒险游戏《原神》，游戏风格，形式虽不同，但也是在不断变换的游戏形式中，完成技术，经验的积累。\n\n不似巨头搞赛马，好处是物尽其力，坏处是经营风险。\n\n原神创始人跳出来说研发费用1亿美刀，远超设想（最夸张的业内人士估计加宣发，也就2-3亿），走了弯路是肯定的（动作手游转开放冒险），交学费出师正常，练兵需要钱，好奇崩坏系列到底赚了多少钱，才能如此财大气粗\n崩坏3系列挣了多少钱？\n预计有23亿人民币的营收\n\n从米哈游vs企鹅看创新\n通过在蓝海的创新，才能建立自己的生态位（避开血肉之躯，投入一场混战）\n\n挖一条自己的沟，抢别的江河的流量，形成自己的河流和生态，巩固自己的水土\n用户价值=新体验-旧体验-替换成本，小企业仰攻没有赢面，同维度竞争体量大占优\n你认为的20-40%的优化，好大的改变，在用户那里算上替换成本，可能是负分。妄图承载你的野望，到头多是自负的败局\n鹅厂长于社交，就不跟它拼社交型游戏，蓝海在哪里，从定位理论上来说，首先是客户定位，为社恐人士开发游戏，再则才是产品模式定位，成本领先或与众不同\n\n\n一群在欧洲的loser，去了美洲大陆所向披靡\n\n改变，去向何方，只能朝向大海的方向\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史","行业","浪潮之巅"]},{"title":"白话内卷","url":"/%E7%99%BD%E8%AF%9D%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7.html","content":"\n内卷是结构性的结果而非原因\n内卷是过去几十年特定发展模式所产生的结构性困境的集中体现，是结果而不是原因，反内卷也显得空洞而无力。\n过去特定历史背景的发展动力过于侧重人口红利和效率优先，带来了惊人的经济重量增长，推动了基础设施的快速完善，使中国快速融入全球产业链，在追求极致效率和规模效应的过程中，对社会公平劳动者权益和环境可持续性的考量置于次要位置，城乡和区域发展上也有大量的不平衡存在。\n过去庞大的人口基数曾被视为巨大的生存发展包袱，为了缓解人口对社会资源的压力，推行了严格的计划生育，可正是劳动力极度充裕的现实成为了中国发展经济的独特优势。改开背景下的农民工制度与 WTO 这两个最大的新变量，挽救了中国经济和整个城市福利体系。最大限度压低社会用工成本和企业负担，获得成本比较优势，同时可进行低成本的基建和城市化。\n福利甩锅\n劳动权益和福利的最小化，户籍壁垒和城市排斥，是的农民工即便长期在城市生活，也难以真正融入城市社会，公平享受城市公共服务，土地成为农民工事业和养老的最后一道防线，实际是将由社会承担的保障成本转嫁给了农村和农民家庭\n柔性执法\n\n效率优先降低了法律的权威性和统一性，柔性执法（严格立法下选择性执法）的策略，降低了经济发展成本，增加了地方经济的发展竞争力，也形成一种筑底竞争的恶性循环。谁与权利更亲近，谁就能获得更多执法优待权和法外特权，谁越遵纪守法合规经营，谁成本就越高，导致市场寻租普遍存在。\n土地税收\n户籍制度与土地财政的结合，形成一种独特的进城税汲取模式，将发展成本层层转嫁，居民的大部分收入都被提取，导致社会整体消费能力的不足。这种发展模式实现了经济的超常规增长，在全球经济中占据了举足轻重的地位。\n然而也带来了深远且持续的代价，劳动者薪资微薄，被迫长时间工作，且缺乏完善社会保障，没钱没时间没底气去消费，只能被迫选择廉价商品，厂家也没有向高附加值升级的空间，从而陷入低工资低消费的循环。\n模式结果\n这种模式财富必然高度集中于少数人手中，导致经济增长红利未能普惠大多数居民。我们错过了增量改革的最佳时期，导致存量分配改革变得日常艰难。我们选择低福利和高积累的发展模式，有意识将效率放在公平分配之前，并通过延后分配加速资本积累。将本可以将在经济增量时代推进的改革推迟，结果就导致这些问题越拖越严重，老问题没解决，新问题不断滋长。\n等到高速发展时代结束，再想回头做分配改革，发现强大的既得利益群体及路径依赖，使改革变得异常艰难。当前在「经济结构转型」，「社会公平实现」和「共同富裕」推进方面上形成了比其它经济体更为复杂的挑战，意味着改革不仅需要顶层设计的决心，更需要勇气打破根深蒂固的制度惯性和利益藩篱。\n内卷是非卷的序曲\n卷是阶级固化的尾声，当教育普及了，大多数人就不可能通过教育改变命运。过去机会特别多，有希望的时候大家并不感到卷，觉得是有奔头的，心情满满，阶级固化一旦形成，但人们的惯性还在，还没认识到固化的完成，像实现阶级跳跃。就像一个列车突然在高速上刹车了，大家啪一下压到前面去了，怎么突然走不动了呢，都想奔波想跑到前面去，是意识还没注意到实际情况的发生的状态。\n当一两代人意识到自己的父母没有卷成功，自己不会比自己的父母过得更好，这个卷的阶段就会过去了。西方早就走完了这些路，8090 年代后就进入非卷状态了，并不是什么新鲜事。\n破局在于理念与机遇\n硬币的正面写满了困难重重，反面的破局之路也在隐隐发光。所以如何将危机化为转型机遇是首要问题，当前是实现经济转轨和实现共同富裕承诺的重大历史机遇，要破除中国式内卷和实现高质量发展就必须彻底扭转发展理念，从单纯追求短期效率和总量增长转向以人为本，兼顾公平与效率的包容性发展。\n\n\n首先、要放弃汲取式经济发展模式，转为包容普惠式经济发展模式，向欧洲等先进经济体看齐，把劳动权益环境保护和经济发展放在同一个水平。\n\n\n要优化收入分配结构，提高劳动者报酬在国民收入中的比重。\n\n\n要鉴权和完善社会保障体系，让医疗教育养老真正成为全体公民的基本权利和坚实后盾\n\n\n要严格保障劳动者合法权益，加强劳动执法和监管，让劳动者有尊严的工作，拥有闲暇时间和精力去享受和消费，而不是在他们没钱时推动他们消费或者制造房价价格恐慌，把钱从老百姓钱包里逼出来。\n\n\n要坚定推动产业升级和技术创新，从人口红利和柔性执法中跳出来，转到人才红利和创新红利。\n\n\n要重塑法律环境，确保法律统一性和权威性。\n\n\n要正视和兑现对前期做出巨大贡献的农村农民和中西部的反哺承诺，化解城乡和区域间的历史性错位。\n\n\n从追求国富到实现民富：让人民公平共享发展红利，才能打破当前负循环。\n\n整个最后的一段，是否属于非理性的期待（反人性），有待观察，大概率是。反内卷可以实现，但可能是倒数第二段的内容。\n\n","categories":["社科自省"],"tags":["时代"]},{"title":"相爱相杀 -- 企业并购中团队管理观察","url":"/%E7%9B%B8%E7%88%B1%E7%9B%B8%E6%9D%80--%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%B9%B6%E8%B4%AD%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F.html","content":"\n**关键问题：**企业并购（组织激荡）团队整合使命下的人员管理\n**案例概要：**并购融合冲突下，保持成建制的团队稳定，接棒落实战略实施，以时间换空间，打造适合企业发展的组织\n突如其来的并购\n并购有风声，但一定有辟谣。当消息降临在打工人的那一刻，答案在风中已经飘了很久了。在小范围的核心团队圈层，势必已做了心理建设和鸡汤灌输。大量的基层人员，在此种场景必然分群，有本来就打算要走，多来一个N+1心中小甜美的；有心有不甘，小范围拉伙准备抗议到底的；有准备呆更久领取N+X补偿后，在另做打算的；有走一步看一步步步为营的。哪种比例会更高？肯定是后一种或后两种，否则也不是厌恶风险的打工人了。\n这里矛盾的大主角，显然是劳资双方。被收购方出卖的除了平台，品牌，商誉，还有团队。但在互联网领域，固定资产的机器不算什么，人是最大的资产。搞定人，搞定收购过来的团队，是横亘在高管面前的一套题。\n绩效的产出需保持组织稳定\n\n收购新上了一套高层班子，踌躇满志，战略战术有待检验，这需要士兵冲锋上前。解决执行问题是直观诉求，潜在诉求其实是组织的稳定，因为只有稳定的组织，才有绩效产出的保障。保持组织的稳定明面上不是重中之重，背地里却是。我们知道选好人，用对人，留住人是我们团队管理的三个角度，除去这些，影响个人，还有一些技巧。我们分别从这几个维度看看上演的做法。\n选好人 – 消除负面弱刺激\n在一波打算离职的人中，容易和抗争到底的人形成联盟，充当其为民请命的代表。这两拨人分开对待，要离职的人，利用威权和大局观游说，促成其放弃冲锋抵抗的角色，尽最大可能让其尽快离职。对于负隅顽抗的人，进行孤立，促使其向自行离职做转换。\n用对人 – 保持建制\n尽量保持原有建制和团队关系不变，维持一个相对放松的环境。利用原有的管理关系，进行影响力释放。\n留住人 – 利诱核心骨干\n对于核心团队，保持待遇不衰减，提升管理机遇，许有上市激励。\n其实新东家还有一些好的制度，如加班调休制度，但在并购振荡期，这些新制度并不是宣传战的要点。种植一个梦想才是洗脑的高境界。\n洗脑 – 重复弱刺激\n\n尽量保持原有建制和团队关系不变，维持一个相对放松的环境，也容易营造从众态势\n包装权威，领军人的传奇经历，让部分愿意相信的人相信继续成功的可能性\n推脱原来的不成功是旧环境的问题\n由原有带队人不断组织团队建设，进行鸡汤灌输，营造我们能赢，我们能收获跟原来不一样的结果的念想\n虚许空头支票（职位，股票），营造更具个人意向的目标感。\n\n我们知道一句话，谎言重复千遍，那就是真理。重复的弱刺激，是形成印象，占领心智的有效武器。\n后记\n管理并不需要换位思考\n管理并不需要换位思考，沟通需要换位思考。这句话看上去挺冷漠，但又实实在在。管理者真心希望组织稳定，以达成组织绩效，因为管理者是更具目标感和专业度的一撮人，理解达成使命或解决问题是价值的体现。人的管理又是有些复杂，因为他是意愿和能力的综合体，不仅仅要关注技能成长（绩效诉求体现在下属的成长中），同样要影响和关注意愿变动。人员流动在所难免，淘汰率和留存率又是一组相杀相爱的指标。最后让我们看看一个企业留人的因素\n\n薪资留人\n事业留人\n文化留人\n\n文化留人有那么重要么\n案例中的并购冲突，本质上事业没变，其实主要是两家企业文化不同。在软性的人文关怀，机会发展和品牌认同上，造成了员工使命和认同的差异。\n企业治理和组织能力打造中，现在更强调变革的基因，生态化的组织，创新迎接压力，这也是跟大家都在强调学阿里，学华为的调调相符，这两家都是不断组织变革的代表。新态势下的组织，需要使命，价值观驱动，并结合激励。而非传统的要求，惩罚来逼你做。围绕人，构建发挥人最大能动性的文化和环境，非常重要。\n说这么虚，文化包含啥\n\n使命，价值观\n激励机制\n福利，培训，工作设备，工作环境，工资\n信息共享\n\n也许还有更多，文化对于较好的人员留存有较大影响比重，经营一家伟大的企业需要重视。\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"研发效能指标","url":"/%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E6%95%88%E8%83%BD%E6%8C%87%E6%A0%87.html","content":"\n目的\n\n研发指标的目的是客户卓越：用户增长、收入增长、运营效率提升、利润增长…\n\n评估现状助推改进\n从建立标准到精细管理\n\n交付模式规范化：内容包含从需求提出到上线反馈端到端的流程，实践等\n研发管理数字化：用成熟度数据管理团队能力，营造数据分为，全组织使用数据持续优化交付模式，提升交付效能，并且注重对历史数据分析，智能化出具问题报告\n\n四句真言：量化现状，诊断问题，辅助决策，驱动问题解决。\n\n形式上可组织双月会，通过指标变化确认改进效果\n\n从闭环上来讲，以问题出发优化研发管理规范，收集各部门最佳实践，形成组织财富，进行推广复用。\n指标点体系\n\n片面误区指标\n\n\n源代码行可能会让你了解系统的复杂性，但这不是衡量开发人员生产力的最佳指标\n\n\n故事点和速度有助于开发团队衡量他们在冲刺或项目中的移动速度，但也不是衡量生产力的最佳选择\n\n\n\n\n故事估值因团队而异，一个故事点还是多个故事点的拆解视角并不同\n\n\n在短期内移动节奏可视为生产力的提升，但随着团队更好预测他们的工作量，速度将开始趋于平衡\n\n\n质量保证（Better）\n代码\n\n单元测试覆盖率\nSonar\n\n高级别违规项\n平均违规项\n圈复杂度\n扫描覆盖率\n\n\n\n测试\n\n测试缺陷修复时效\nL1、L2测试缺陷比例\n测试缺陷验证失效\n\n生产异常\n\n紧急版本比例\n纯缺陷版本占比\n\n敏捷交付（Faster）\n积压\n\n特性、故事积压量\n平均积压时长\n积压率\n\n规模\n\n量（总量、人均量）\n率\n\n交付率（交付、新增）\n丢弃率\n代码提交人员比例\n\n\n速度\n\n80%分位交付周期（故事、特性）\n平均开发周期（故事、特性）\n缺陷关闭时效\n双周/单月 需求（特性）完成率[限定状态为已发布]\n\n\n\n技术工程（More Effcient）\n开发\n\n构建\n\n构建平均时间\n构建失败率\n\n\n代码日均行数\n代码库合规（提交检查）\n\n测试\n\n自动化用例执行成功率\n自动化执行频率\n\n部署发布\n\n部署平均时间\n部署失败率\n部署次数\n\n后记\n单点能力的效能工具收益会随着时间逐渐递减，企业需要从更高视角对研发效能一体化平台进行整体规划的能力。\n敏捷在说什么事？以流动效率为核心，提升团队的持续交付能力\n更关键的是：以长期质量为核心，沉淀优秀软件资产和工程能力，助力敏捷\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["研发质效"]},{"title":"祛魅","url":"/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html","content":"\n体验-祛魅\n尼采的铁口直断：生命是一团欲望，欲望不满足则痛苦，满足便无聊。当你真的拥有或者到达目的地后，才发现那里空无一物。成长是对所有客体体验的祛魅。生命的意义就在体验生命本身，在自己能力范围内，尽情多的体验，别被乱七八糟的东西困住。世界辽阔眼界宜放宽，各类服务的体验对于二三十岁的人的自信是一个巨大的提升。\n何为体验？ 我经历过，你没经历过，讲出来，你也不信，这东西就叫体验。\n体验这东西值得花钱（体验一次就翘辫子的不在此列，很多有钱人都喜欢玩极限运动，因为只有生与死才刺激不会没有快感），能改变一个人的价值认知，开拓眼界，拔高思想上限。应了那句话，只有拥有了，才能去魅。\n看美女是美女，看山是山，是经历过足够多看过足够多以后悟出来的结果。以前看山，想知道山的后面是什么，现在已经不想知道了，因为已知道山的后面还是山，这个道理谁都懂，但对于那些么上过山顶的人说这话，你猜他们信不信？祛的是对人的滤镜、对事的畏惧、对物的执念。戳破虚幻的泡沫，看清生活的本质，成为更强大的自己。\n但也要清醒的认知到任何客体经历、关系状态，没有一样可以让我们永远保持幸福喜悦。只要我们开心的预期及理想的范式，一直寄托在他者和外界身上，我们就会一直试图用新的体验去替代旧的。也只有形而上的东西能寄托人的无限心，一味追求物质享受只能慢慢溺毙于愈来愈深的欲望之海中。\n心中有杆秤：穷人叫体验，富人叫生活\n有时候你会看到公众号写手写一些内容安慰普通人以博取共鸣，一种我想显得自己已看透一切很牛逼，有钱人也就过这样的生活的鸡汤文，让穷人更好的活在自己的世界中。但穷人不能写爽文很容易露馅：888 一位的海鲜自助，真不如饭店点两个自己爱吃的菜来得舒服，夸张点不如自家的白粥咸菜。一看就能看出从小家境非常一般的小地方人的画像，长大了获得了一些机遇，这种出身的人只觉得自己家门口那点东西才吃得惯，其它什么都不稀罕，字里行间有一种专升本的美感。\n一分钱一分货，一毛钱两分货，一块钱三分货。品质的提升伴随的是价格数十倍的增长，不是一些好东西完全可以平替，是任何领域都需要大量金钱长期的体验加上自身各方面体验的天赋，衣食住行吃喝玩乐也像音体美一样都需要天赋才能感知的更明显。\n体验很重要，比体验更重要的是怎么去持久的享受，正如你没见王思聪去舍身出家，反倒是不停歇地体验。\n衣食住行情\n衣：如果置办一身行头，能让自己变得自信一点，就是值当去做的，但也要内里精神气质的衬托，好鞍配好马。习惯后选择的更多是舒适性，君不见马云整个定制的布鞋满足舒适又装杯，真正富有的人，在穿着上通常会显得相当低调。当你拥有一定的财富时，无需依靠这些外在的事物来彰显。奢侈品是个壳，壳下面是人是鬼，真不好说。一身奢侈品牌，跟另一群奢侈品把酒言欢，100%都是场面，反倒是见面穿着运动服，能搞一身臭汗的，更可能是真心朋友。\n食：放在现今社会来说，吃花不了几个钱，高端餐厅去几次，高级菜品品尝品尝，体验下蓝星物产，体验下服务贵贱。吃是个最高频领域，富人的生活不在豪车名表所展示的财富，更在于他们日常生活中与普通人的显著差异。普通人偶尔装个杯去吃个环境可以，平常就顺着自己口味就行，看过天宫一隅就够了。\n住：酒店，在万豪，希尔顿，凯悦，洲际往上，就迈入一块钱三分货的区间了（如不一样在一堆奢侈品洗漱用品），怎么选就根据资金心情随意了。\n行：除了房子，车是最大件。少了销售的忽悠，一些东西你根本发现不了。市面上的豪车，不少是二手的，价格下来了，你还觉得它豪么？买二手豪车泡妞的，但凡有点见识的，一眼就看得出来，谁跟他呀，能被骗的，得是什么货色。飞机高铁商务舱，长途确实舒服，条件允许的时刻也别亏待了自己，除了专机，这是普通人和富豪最容易平齐的领域。\n情：萝莉岛大家可能没去过，但商K实在是大众可接触之物。与其意淫萝莉岛，干脆花点钱去 KTV 找人聊天唱歌，去了就知道，美女这玩意，只对穷矮挫才稀罕。美女是穷人的奢侈品，是富人的厕纸（上层社会的稀缺资源是说话的分量）。刘天仙，底层一点的有钱人想的都是怎么为她一掷千金，博得红颜一笑，上层完全不是这样想，出发点是财富逻辑。抛开情欲，性欲，剩下的才是爱情。酒池肉林红粉骷髅反而体验多了没劲。\n回到当下\n社会底层需要学会对世界祛魅，无论是控制权利还是控制资本，本质只是高于基础劳动之上的一个基本社会活动，其实就是造概念营销，在政治领域直接就是造概念，创造的概念针对不同阶级，如何让老百姓过上他所认为的好生活，基本群众不知道什么好坏，依靠社会定义去感悟如何成功如何失败。\n中等生活的普通人一生至少体验几项，体验几次，直到破除对物的执念，体验获得了，长见识了，这钱花得值，后面也就可以省了，常人最终还是要回到当下或你定下努力目标。想极致体验的感受，小富不行，要么大富，要么大贵，如此，你吃的将是根据你口味定制的看似普通却是一般人一辈子没吃过的正宗开水白菜。\n为自己转身\n祛魅的好处显而易见，它让你拨开客体迷障，睁开火眼金睛，谁是绣花枕头，哪儿是草台班子。需要祛魅的是那些消耗自己的事物，而不是理想和远方。优秀美好的事物，不是拿来祛魅的，而是让人看到更多可能。\n真正吸引人的是自信从容，不需要担心衣食住行，想做什么都能搞定的底气。\n人类真正的快乐在于创造，而不是体验，体验无非是没出做过有新鲜感。且身体上的感官受觉体验上限很低且无法持续，精神上的探索发现乐趣更能让人着迷，上限高可持续性强。举些最简单的例子，长期坚持某项运动到较高水平，去未开发的自然环境创作，给他人提供帮助，与特别人交谈，获取少有人掌握的知识，都是更佳的精神多巴胺，很多都需要花精力，磨功夫，不仅仅是靠钱能得到/掌握。而最终决定一个人是否宏大，正是取决于那些极致体验。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性","哲理"]},{"title":"穷查理宝典","url":"/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html","content":"\n“长寿秘诀的答案很简单：不嫉妒、不抱怨、不过度消费，保持开心，不纠结于你的烦恼，和靠谱的人共事，做你该做的，这些简单的事情可以让你生活变得很好。” – 来自享年99岁的芒格先生无比正确的建议。\n芒格的生活、学习和决策方法\n他们花在学习和思考上的时间，比花在行动上的时间要多，这种习惯绝对不是偶然的。这是每个行业真正的大师身上所体现出来的纪律和耐心的混合物：一种绝不妥协的 把手上的牌打好 的决心。就像世界级的桥牌大师理查德·萨克豪瑟那样，查理在意的并不是他本人是否能赢牌，而是是否能把手上的牌打好。尽管在芒格和巴菲特的世界里，糟糕的结果是可以接受的（因为有些结果并不在他们的掌握之中），但准备不足和仓促决策是不可原谅的，因为这些因素是可以控制的。\n\n这跟孙子兵法中的观念：不可胜在已，可胜在敌是一致的\n\n多元思维模型\n若想在任何领域拥有竞争力，就必须熟练地掌握该领域的方方面面，不管你是否喜欢这么做，这是人类大脑的深层结构决定的。\n大多数人都只养成一个学科——比如说经济学——的思维模型，试图用一种方法来解决所有问题。你知道谚语是怎么说的：“在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，世界就像一颗钉子。”这是一种处理问题的笨方法。\n\n如果把人脑比喻做决策树模型或深度学习的模型，那么有偏的训练做出的决策是有风险的\n\n得到系统的常识——非常基础的知识——是一种威力巨大的工具。你拥有的基本知识越多，你需要吸取的新知识就越少，这也是招聘时基本问题基本功的重要性。\n获取跨学科的知识\n\n跨学科知识的合理组织模式应该是这样的：\n\n\n必须完全弄清楚所有知识的原始出处；\n\n\n必须把更基本的解释放在第一位。\n\n\n刊物有时候能够让学生学到新的成因模式，而不仅仅是复习原有的知识。如果学生想要尽可能地提高自己的判断力，那么在校期间就实践他毕业后要终生从事的工作，是非常有道理的做法。在商业界，我认识的那些判断能力非常强的人，他们也都用这些刊物来维持他们的智慧。\n\n从吴军的阅读写作50讲中，也列举了读近年学科综述的高效性，读学科教科书或领域经典，而非选择快餐读物的好处\n\n反过来想\n卡森采用的研究方法是把问题反过来想。就是说要解出X，得先研究如何才能得到非X。伟大的代数学家雅各比用的也是卡森这种办法，众所周知，他经常重复一句话：“反过来想，总是反过来想。”雅各比知道事物的本质是这样的，许多难题只有在逆向思考的时候才能得到最好的解决。例如，当年几乎所有人都在试图修正麦克斯韦的电磁定律，以便它能够符合牛顿的三大运动定律，然而爱因斯坦却转了个180度大弯，修正了牛顿的定律，让其符合麦克斯韦的定律，结果他发现了相对论。\n如果你们把问题反过来思考，你们通常就能够想得更加清楚。例如，如果你们想要帮助印度，你们应该考虑的问题不是： “我要怎样才能帮助印度？”相反地，你们应该问：“我要怎样才能损害印度？”你们应该找到能够对印度造成最大损害的事情，然后避免去做它。\n核查与批评\n养成一些让你能够保持客观公正的习惯当然对认知非常有帮助。我们都记得达尔文特别留意相反的证据，尤其是在他证伪的是某种他信奉和热爱的理论时。如果你们想要在思考的时候尽量少犯错误，你们就需要这样的习惯。人们还需要养成核对检查清单的习惯。\n连爱因斯坦这样的大人物也说过，他的成就取决于四个因素，首先是自我批评，然后才是好奇心、专注和毅力。\n好奇心\n雅典人的纯粹好奇心推动了数学和科学的发展，而罗马人则对数学或科学几乎没有贡献。罗马人更专注于矿藏、道路和水利等“实用”工程。最好的现代教育机构（这样的机构在许多地方都为数甚少）能增强人们的好奇心，而好奇心则能帮助人们防止或者减少其他心理倾向造成的糟糕后果。\n\n\n好奇心还能让人们在正式教育结束很久之后依然拥有许多乐趣和智慧\n\n\n带着快乐不断地思考和学习在某种程度上能够延缓不可避免的衰退过程\n\n\n\n这也是科学家经常长寿的一部分原因吧\n\n普世基本的智慧\n天下熙熙\n在大多数情况下，要说服一个人，从这个人的利益出发是最有效的\n可视化沟通\n人类发明了一种东西，以便弥补我们天生不擅长处理数字的缺陷，这种东西叫做图表。奇怪的是，它居然是在中世纪期间出现的。在中世纪的修道士发明的东西里，我认为惟一有价值的就是图表。图表以图形的方式把数字表现出来，它利用了你们的神经系统来帮助你们理解它\n找准优势规避难题\n正如巴菲特和我经常说的，我们跨不过七英尺高的栏。我们寻找的是那些一英尺高的、对面有丰厚回报的栏。所以我们成功的诀窍是去做一些简单的事情，而不是去解决难题\n每个人都必须搞清楚你们有哪方面的才能。你们必须发挥自己的优势。但如果你们想在较不擅长的领域取得成功，那你们的生活可能会过得一团糟。这一点我可以保证。如果不是这样的话，那你们肯定是中了彩票或者遇到其他非常走运的事情。\n经济学是非完美的\n诺贝尔物理学奖得主、发现了普朗克常数的伟大物理学家普朗克曾经研究过经济学。他后来放弃了。有史以来最聪明的人之一普朗克为什么要放弃经济学呢？答案是，他说：“经济学太难了。你想尽办法，得到的结果却总是无序而不确定的。”这满足不了普朗克追求有序的愿望，所以他放弃了。如果普朗克早就明白他在经济学里面永远得不到完美的秩序，我敢自信地预言，你们也将会得到相同的结果。\n你们那些误人子弟的教授太过信奉经济学中的“理性人”假设，对心理学中的“非理性人”理论则所知甚少，也缺乏实际的生活经验。人类跟旅鼠一样，在某些情况下都有“集体非理性”的倾向。这种倾向导致聪明人产生了许多不理智的想法，做了许多不理智的行为——比如说出席今天会议的许多基金会的投资管理实践。如今每个机构投资者最害怕的事情就是它的投资实践和大家的不同，这是很可悲的。\n公平是乌托邦\n人世间大多数结果都是不公平的，而且道德规范有时候必须不公平，才能取得最好的效果。过于追求公平，会给社会制度带来严重的功能障碍。\n\n公平违背了自然设定的规则，恰是一种不自然的设定，必引出你理想之外的问题，《历史的教训》一书里也谈了好多这方面内容\n\n生活是什么\n生活不仅仅是精明的积累财富。生活和生意上的大多数成功来自你知道应该避免哪些事情：\n\n过早死亡、糟糕的婚姻等等\n避免染上艾滋病、在路口和火车抢道以及吸毒。\n培养良好的心理习惯\n避免邪恶之人，尤其是那些性感诱人的异性\n\n多说一句，按富兰克林的建议，结婚前要睁大双眼看清楚，结婚后要睁一只眼闭一只眼。”也许这种“睁一只眼闭一只眼”的方法是正确的，但我喜欢一种更难做到的办法：“实事求是地看清现实，可还是去爱。”\n避免嫉妒\n关注别人赚钱（比你）更快的想法是一种致命的罪行。妒忌真的是一种愚蠢的罪行，因为它是仅有的一种你不可能得到任何乐趣的罪行\n在成为伟大的英国首相的过程中，狄斯雷利学会了不让复仇成为行动的动机，但他也保留了某种发泄怨恨的办法，就是将那些敌人的名字写下来，放到抽屉里。然后时不时会翻看这些名字，自得其乐地记录下世界是怎样无须他插手就使他的敌人垮掉的。\n总的来说，妒忌，怨憎，仇恨和自怜都是灾难性的思想状态，过度自怜可让人近乎偏执，偏执是最难逆转的东西之一。\n这世界上大概可以分为两种人，一种是“受害者”，一种是“幸存者”。我不会因为人性而感到意外，也不会花太多时间感受背叛，我总是低下头调整自己去适应这类事情，我不喜欢成为受害者的感觉，我不是受害者，我是幸存者。\n\n不管是什么原因，哪怕由于自己的孩子患上重病即将离去，也要想到自怜是于事无补的，负面的，是一种标准反应，应该避开，这样你的优势就远远大于所有其他人（强者的心态和思维方式）\n\n避免透支收入\n从前有一个人，是全世界最著名的作曲家，可是他大部分时间过得非常悲惨，原因之一就是他总是透支他的收入，这位作曲家叫莫扎特（他虽然收入波动大，但在音乐家里算是非常高的，比90%的维也纳居民多，收入高时不储蓄，收入低时又不调整高消费生活方式，打官司也输，现金流出现问题，也经常赌博）。连莫扎特都无法摆脱这种自我服务偏好带来的愚蠢行为的毒害，大家就更不应该去尝试。\n莎士比亚的不同\n\n此段并不来自于穷查理这本书\n\n和很多文人穷困潦倒不同的是，莎士比亚是一个精明的商人，他晚年生活得恬适和安祥，这其实和他的人生态度以及生活方式有关。不仔细查阅他的生平文献和史料，仅从他的书中总结，都可以得到这样一些人生信条：\n\n合理支配金钱\n家庭和谐最珍贵，要忠贞于爱情，区分爱情和情欲。两性关系需要两情相悦，水乳交融，不能勉强\n要放松自己，享受生活，享受美食，体会文学和音乐的魅力，不要过度悲伤\n要克制自己的欲望，不要酗酒、赌博、纵欲无度\n年轻与老迈全由心灵决定\n\n应该投资什么样的企业\n\n“我有一张剪报，那是1911年的《布法罗晚报》，上面列出了当时纽约证券交易所成交最活跃的50家公司的股票。到今天，唯有一家公司仍是大型的独立企业，那就是通用电气公司。”\n当你专注的市场被狂热的小型竞争对手——比如说山姆·沃尔顿——盯上时，那么你要活下来就变得更难了\n\n「竞争性毁灭」的力量有多么强大。历史证明，一家公司能够长期以一种让它的拥有者满意的方式保留下来的可能性是微乎其微的。要怎样才能和狂热的对手竞争呢？惟一的办法是挖一条尽可能好的护城河，然后不断地努力加宽它。\n狂热的竞争的推手力：随大流只会让你往平均值靠近（只能获得中等的业绩）\n\n新纺织机带来的好处只会落到那些购买纺织品的人手里，而不是落进拥有纺织厂的那个家伙的口袋。\n新技术、新发明，有利于推动社会文明进步，但对股票投资者来说，未必是好事\n\n优秀企业是什么\n有这么两类企业：第一类每年赚12%，你到年底可以把利润拿走。第二类每年赚12%，但所有多余的现金必须进行再投资——它总是没有分红。这让我想起了那个卖建筑设备的家伙——他望着那些从购买新设备的客户手里吃进的二手机器，并说：“我所有的利润都在那里了，在院子里生锈。”我们讨厌那种企业。\n\n分红的企业才是好企业\n\n好生意的代表\n可乐没有味觉记忆，奶油苏打水、根汁汽水、橙汁、葡萄汁，这些都不行，这些饮料喝多了会腻。大多数食品和饮料都这样，吃多了或者喝多了会觉得腻。所以可以做到很大的消费量，因成本边际递减效应，这么多年还没怎么涨价。\n麦当劳的快餐生意不如可口可乐的饮料生意好做。快餐行业在全球规模巨大，要是一定要从里面选一家公司的话，选麦当劳没错。麦当劳这几年促销活动越来越多，越来越依赖促销，而不是靠产品本身卖的好。总要想着下个月搞什么促销活动对付汉堡王，要担心汉堡王签下了迪士尼，怎么办（给小朋友赠送玩具）\n产品本身卖得好的生意，是吉列，人们买不是为了得到什么赠品。每天晚上，想想一两亿男人的胡子都在长，你睡觉的时候，男人们的胡子一直在长，你就能睡得很踏实，再想想，女人们都有两条腿，这更好了（刮腿毛，😄）\n管理者很重要\n我们收购一家又一家的企业，是因为我们敬佩它们的创办人和这些创办人在生活中取得的成就。在绝大多数情况下，他们会留下来，而且从来不曾让我们失望。所以你们偶尔会有机会可以投资一家有着优秀管理者的优秀企业。当然啦，这是非常幸运的事情。如果有了这些机会却不好好把握，那你们就犯了大错。\n你们偶尔会发现有些管理者非常有才能，能够做普通人做不到的事情。\n激情和天分，哪个更重要呢？伯克希尔充满了对他们自己的事业特别有激情的人。我认为激情比头脑的能力更加重要。\n\n三分之二的收购是失败的。而我们的收购很成功，那是因为我们从来不试图为收购而收购——我们等着那些不用多想也知道会成功的机会\n\n现实思维的思考\n市场测算\n如果缺乏数学运算能力，在我们大多数人所过的生活中，你将会像一个参加踢屁股比赛的独腿人。使用数学运算来确定我们的目标到底意味着什么，以可乐行业举例。\n根据合理的推测，到2034年，全世界大概有80亿饮料消费者。每个消费者的身体成分主要是水，每天必须喝下64盎司的水，也就是八瓶八盎司的饮料。如果我们的饮料和其他饮料能够迎合消费者的味道，只要占到全世界水摄入总量的25%，而我们在全世界能够占据一半的市场，那么到2034年，我们就能一年卖出29200亿瓶8盎司的饮料\n\n$64 * \\frac{1}{4} * \\frac{1}{2} = 8$盎司，80亿 * 365=29200亿，相当于目标卖每人一瓶8盎司装，本身还是市占率之锚\n\n如果我们销售每瓶饮料得到的净利润是4美分，那么我们能够赚到1170 (=29200*$\\frac{4}{100}$=1168) 亿美元。这就足够了，如果我们仍然能够保持良好的增长率，那么企业的价值轻轻松松就可以达到2万亿美元 （相当于17倍的市盈率）\n目标分解\n第一，在这150年里（可口可乐1884年创立），我们必须创造一个新的饮料市场，让它能够占到全世界水摄入总量的$\\frac{1}{4}$；\n第二，我们必须经营有方，能够占有一半的市场，而我们所有的竞争对手加起来只占有另外一半的市场。\n这些结果称得上是lollapalooza效应。所以，我们必须调动一切有利因素来完成我们的任务\n如何打造产品皇座\n\n考虑到巴甫洛夫效应(条件反射)，我们将会明智地选择这个听起来神秘又高贵的名字——“可口可乐”，而不是一个街头小贩的名字，比如说“格罗兹的咖啡因糖水”。\n出于同样的巴甫洛夫原因，明智的做法是让我们的饮料看起来很像红酒，而不是糖水。所以如果这种饮料生产出来很清澈，我们将会给它添加人工色素。\n我们将会给这种饮料充气，让我们的产品看起来像是香槟或者其他昂贵的饮料。\n同时把它的味道调制得更好，让竞争产品难以模仿。\n\n因为我们准备将许多昂贵的心理效应和我们的味道联系起来，所以它应该不同于任何标准味道，这样我们就能给竞争对手制造最大的困难，并确保绝无现有的饮料因为味道碰巧和我们的产品相同而获益。\n金融衍生品\n我非常有把握地预测（美国的）主要银行无法以账本上的价格清算它们持有的衍生品\n老巴的投资风格画像和建议\n\n我想人们在投资管理中犯错的原因可以用一个故事来解释：我曾遇到一个卖鱼钩的家伙。我问他：“天哪，你这些鱼钩居然是绿色和紫色的。鱼真的会上钩吗？”他说：“先生，我又不是卖给鱼的。”\n亚伯拉罕·林肯曾经问：“如果你把尾巴称为腿，那么一只狗有几条腿呢？四条。将尾巴称为腿，并不能让它就变成腿。”— 忘记不现实的假设\n\n巴菲特今天的投资业绩可能得益于他早年研究赛马的经历。这两个领域都有大量的资料，都有已知和未知的变量，都有不同的学派研究怎样才能最好地评估这些因素。不出意料地，巴菲特在这两个领域使用的方法是相同的。\n\n速度派的赌徒很像股票市场上的动量投资者，认为跑最快的马能够赢得比赛（我们不都是这样吗？）。\n旅途派更关注的是马匹在“旅途”中遇到的各种细节。当天的赛道对前领型马匹（closers）有利吗？那匹马排位靠后吗？那条赛道有很多直道吗，还是没有直道？\n\n股票市场的传奇投资人物沃伦·巴菲特年轻时曾出版过一份赛马投注指南。他曾在描述他的投资风格时自称为旅途派赌徒。他的同行几乎没有人能听懂这句话；赌马者当然能听懂。\n靠折腾赚钱，还是靠不折腾\n\n这点老巴和华尔街是不同的，华尔街是靠折腾赚钱\n\n只要把生意看懂了，就能赚大钱。择时很容易掉坑里。只要是好生意，我就不管那些大事小事，也不考虑今年明年如何之类的问题。看一个生意，你就一门心思琢磨它将来会怎么样，别太纠结什么时候。把生意的将来能怎么样看透了，到底是什么时候，就没多大关系了。\n看重自己的能力圈\n不纠结过去的事，纠结也没用。人生只能向前看。你们从错误里或许能学到东西，但最重要的是只投资自己能看懂的生意。如果你像很多人一样，跳出了自己的能力圈，听别人的消息买了自己毫不了解的股票，犯了这样的错，你需要反省，要记得只投资自己能看懂的。\n自己要买什么，得对自己负责。一定要有个理由，说不出来理由，别买。是因为别人在和你闲聊时告诉你这只股票能涨吗？这个理由不行。是因为成交量异动或者走势图发出了信号吗？这样的理由不行。你的理由，一定是你为什么要买这个生意（我根本不想买它的生意，只是觉得它的证券便宜，这就是个错误）。我们恪守这个原则，这是本•格雷厄姆教我的。\n对分散投资的看法\n若不是职业投资者，不追求通过管理资金实现超额收益率目标，应该高度分散。98%~99%的投资者应该高度分散，但不能频繁交易，你的操作模型或标的应该和成本极低的指数基金差不多，相当于你持有中国/美国的一部分就可以了，这样投资，是相信持有中/美的一部分会得到很好的回报。普通投资者这么「指数化投资」是正路。\n如果想积极参与投资活动，研究公司并主动做投资决策，那就不一样了。既然你走上研究公司这条路，既然你决定投入时间和精力把投资做好，那么分散投资就大错特错。在资金量一般的情况下，你能看懂拥有的生意不应该超过六个，要是你能找到六个好生意，就已经足够分散了，且你能赚很多钱。\n\n靠第七个最好的主意发家的人很少[肯定掉沟里]，靠最好的生意发家的人很多。\n\n拥抱坏消息\n伯克希尔有一条普遍的规矩：“有坏消息要立刻向我们汇报。只有好消息是我们可以等待的。”\n\n风险类的舆情比极端正向的有效，正向的通常滞后很多\n\n人类误判心理学\n人类就像被驯养的动物和猴子，也生活在一种等级结构中，他倾向于尊重当权者，喜欢和同阶层的成员合作，同时对处于下层并与之竞争的人表现出极大的不信任和不喜欢。\n蚂蚁有限的大脑不但容易受环境欺骗，而且还会遭到其他生物的操控。这种蚂蚁的大脑里面包含了一种简单的行为程序，引导蚂蚁在爬行的时候跟着前方的蚂蚁走。如果在这种蚂蚁爬行时把它们弄成一个圆圈，它们有时候会不停地走啊走，直到死亡为止\n人类的知觉系统清楚地证明了大脑确实会失灵。人是很容易受到愚弄的，无论是人类精心设计的骗局，还是偶然出现的环境因素，抑或人们刻苦练习而掌握的非常有效的控制术，都能够轻而易举地让人们上当。导致这种结果的原因之一是人类感知中的微量效应。如果刺激被维持在一定水平之下，人类便察觉不到它的存在。由于这个原因，魔术师能够在黑暗中做一通虚张声势的动作之后让自由女神像消失。观众并不知道他们坐在一个慢慢旋转的平台之上。\n苏联共产党对激励机制的超级威力完全无知，结果造成什么情况呢？有个苏联工人这么说：“他们假装给薪水，我们假装在工作。”\n避免不一致倾向\n\n社会心理学中的“认知失调”理论\n\n凯恩斯教授说是人类头脑和人类卵子的运作方式非常相似。当一个精子进入卵子，卵子就会自动启动一种封闭机制，阻止其他精子的进入。人类头脑强烈地趋向于与此相同的结果。\n新思想不被接受，是因为它们与原有的旧思想不一致，甚至在物理学领域，激进的新思想也很少被旧卫士所接受。与此相反，普朗克说，唯有新的一代成长起来，较少受到旧理论毒害的他们才能接受新理论。实际上，这种“脑梗阻”的情况也曾经在某种程度上发生于爱因斯坦身上\n避免不一致性倾向造成的结果之一是，人们在获取新身份的过程中作出的重大牺牲将会提高他们对这种新身份的忠诚度\n避免不一致性倾向是如此强大，乃至一个人只要假装拥有某种身份、习惯或者结论，他自己通常就会信以为真。因而，许多扮演哈姆雷特的演员会在某种程度上相信自己就是那位丹麦王子。许多装好人的伪善者的道德水平确实得到了提高；许多假装公正无私的法官和陪审团确实会做到公正无私；许多辩护律师或者其他观点的鼓吹者最后会相信他们从前只是假装相信的东西。\n互利（回馈）倾向\n聪明的雇主试图压制从事采购工作的职员的回馈倾向。最简单的对策最有效：别让他们从供应商那里得到任何好处。山姆·沃尔顿（注：山姆·沃尔顿，1918—1992，美国零售商沃尔玛公司的创办人）赞同这种彻底禁止的思想。他不允许采购员从供应商那里接受任何东西，哪怕是一个热狗也不行。考虑到大多数回馈倾向是在潜意识层面发挥作用，沃尔顿的政策是非常正确的。如果我是国防部的负责人，我会在国防部实行沃尔顿的政策。\n拒绝-退让\n遇到陌生人就要求他们连续两年每周花大量时间去照顾少年犯。这个荒唐的请求得到了百分之百的拒绝。但实验员跟着又问：“那么你愿意至少花一个下午带那些少年犯去参观动物园吗？”这将西奥迪尼原来的接受率从1/6提高到了50%——整整3倍。\n西奥迪尼的实验员所做的是作出小小的让步，于是对方也作出了小小的让步。由于西奥迪尼的实验对象在潜意识中作出了这种回馈式的让步，所以有更多的人非理性地答应带领少年犯去参观动物园。这位教授发明了如此巧妙的实验，如此强有力地证明了某个如此重要的道理，他理应得到更广泛的认可。甚至在水门事件在司法部长批准进入水门大厦这事上也有体现。\n简单联想倾向\n这是那么多精致广告有用的原因，就像简单的条件反射一样\n“波斯信使综合症”中看出来。古代波斯人真的会把信使杀掉，而这些信使惟一的过错是把真实的坏消息（比如说战败）带回家。对于信使来说，逃跑并躲起来，真的要比依照上级的心愿完成使命安全得多。\n自视过高倾向\n有90%的司机都认为自己的驾驶技术在平均水平之上。\n这种误评也适用于人们的主要“私人物品”，人们常会称赞自己的配偶，非客观的过高评价自己的孩子，甚至细小私人物品也一般会得到过度的称赞。这种过高高估自己私人物品的现象在心理学里面有个名称&quot;禀赋效应&quot;。做出决定后就会觉得自己的决定很好，甚至比没做出决定前所认为的还要好。\n自视过高倾向往往会使人们偏爱那些和自己相似的人。有些心理学教授们用很好玩的“丢钱包”实验证明了这种效应。他们的实验全都表明，如果捡到钱包的人根据钱包里的身份线索发现失主跟自己很相似，那么他把钱包还给失主的可能性是最高的。由于人类的这种心理特性，相似的人组成的派系群体总是人类文化中非常有影响的一部分。\n自视过高往往会导致糟糕的雇佣决定，因为大部分雇主高估了他们根据面试印象所得结论的价值。防止这种蠢事的正确对策是看轻面试的印象，看重求职者以往的业绩。\n被剥夺超级反应倾向\n人类和芒格家的狗差不多。人们在失去——或者有可能失去——财产、爱情、友谊、势力范围、机会、身份或者其他任何有价值的东西时，通常会做出不理性的激烈反应，哪怕只失去一点点时也是如此。因此，因为势力范围受到威胁而发生的内耗往往会给整个组织造成极大的破坏。正是由于这个因素和其他因素的存在，杰克·韦尔奇长期致力于扫荡通用电气中的官僚作风是很明智的行为。很少企业领袖在这方面做得比杰克·韦尔奇更好。\n剥夺超级反应倾向也是导致某些赌徒倾家荡产的重要原因之一。首先，它使得赌徒输钱之后急于扳平，输得越多，这种不服输的心理就越严重。其次，最容易让人上瘾的赌博形式就是设计出许多差点就赢的情况\n避免因此而在公开报价拍卖会上付出愚蠢的价格，最佳的办法是巴菲特的简单做法：别去参加这些拍卖会。\n我用手头的现金买下了某支潜力股票。第二天，他又想以同样的价格再卖给我1500股。这次我谢绝了，部分原因是我没那么多现金，只能卖掉某些东西或者举债才能筹到所需的173000美元。这是个非常不理性的决定。当年我生活很好，也不欠债，买这只股票没有赔本的风险，而同样没有风险的机会并不是经常有的。不到两年之后，壳牌收购了贝尔里奇石油公司，价格是大约每股3700美元。如果我当时懂得更多心理学知识，买下那些股票，我就能多赚540万美元\n\n何尝不是很多欠缺财商的普通人的写照\n\n从众倾向\n一个人自动依照他所观察到的周围人们的思考和行动方式去思考和行动，那么他就能够把一些原本很复杂的行为进行简化。而且这种从众的做法往往是有效的\n\n这种倾向造成了许多可笑的结果。例如，如果一名教授安排10名实验员静静地站在电梯里，并且背对着电梯口，那么当陌生人走进电梯时，通常也会转过身去，摆出相同的姿势。\n\n对比错误反应倾向\n因为人类的神经系统并不是精密的科学仪器，所以它必须依靠某些更为简单的东西。比如说眼睛，它只能看到在视觉上形成对比的东西。和视觉一样，其他感官也是依靠对比来捕捉信息的。更重要的是，不但感知如此，认知也是如此。结果就造成了人类的对比错误反应倾向。\n错误衡量易得性倾向\n这种倾向和一句歌词相互呼应：如果我爱的女孩不在身边，我就爱身边的女孩。人类的大脑是有限和不完美的，它很容易满足于容易得到的东西，无法使用它记不住后者认识不到的东西。所以大脑会高估容易得到东西的重要性，从而展现出这种倾向。\n避免受易得性——错误衡量倾向影响的主要对策通常是按程序办事，包括使用几乎总是很有帮助的检查清单。\n总结\n这些我们无法摆脱的心理倾向能带来什么实际的好处呢？我的答案是，这些心理倾向带来的好处可能比坏处多。不然的话，它们就不会存在于人类容量有限的大脑中，而且还对人类的处境产生了很大的作用。所以这些倾向不能，也不该，遭到自动地清除。\n尽管如此，上文描绘的那种心理思考系统，如果得到正确的理解和应用，将有助于智慧和端正行为的传播，并且有助于避免各种灾难。心理倾向是可以改变的，认识各种心理倾向和防范它们的对策通常能够防患于未然\n应向工程学偷师\n很多系统都没有像工程学那样设定安全边际，用来防止不可避免的人性弱点所造成的损失。例如，面对外科手术中许多本可避免的死亡，工程学作出的反应是，创造一些阻止操作者将氧气输送量降到零的麻醉机器。\n\n从这种角度上来讲，软件工程学也是为普通人协作而生，真正的天才不受此约束，例如linus一个人假期内搞定linux\n\n据此理，乐观主义在会计中没有容身之地。\n人一生只需要富一次\n人其实不需要富很多次，也不需要成功很多事情，只要成功一件比较大的事情就可以非常有钱了。这时需要做的就不再是焦虑财富问题了，需要做的不再是借钱炒房，或者拿所有存款去炒币，赌一把看能不能单车变摩托。因为你已经有摩托了，为什么还要去赌一把。\n从无产者的赌徒心态变成一个真正的长线经营心态，也就是说的有恒产者有恒心。要做的恰恰是拒绝巨大部分机会，以保护自己已有的财富。那么大公司怎么有钱了还在激进投资，因为它们是垄断公司，它们有强劲的利润流。它们不是一辈子只富一次，而是富很多次，且是越来越富，不断做投资风险可控，这一般人比不了，也不是一般富人能做到的。\n这里说的是哪怕你再也赚不到钱了，还可以一直富下去到死，因为消费是消费不穷的，但一个重大的人生决策失误如投资，创业或婚姻，就可以让你直接返贫。所以有钱后重大人生决策一定要足够小心和慢，宁愿不赚钱，宁愿不做决策，也不能赔大钱，这才是富人的决策逻辑。进而彰显出财富的逻辑：没钱的人要不断折腾，当一个赌徒；有钱人的要保护自己的财富，哪怕不赚钱也不能亏钱。\n\n只富一次与阶层跃迁：对普通人来说，也就是说只跃迁一个阶层，然后把这个阶层守住，并传给下一代，对 99.99%的人来说，这种思想还是可取的，变成大富是小概率中的小概率事件，未知长路的赛跑，经验累积稳扎稳打更能穿越周期，传世长远。\n\n贫穷的本质\n贫穷的本质不是懒惰，而是无效努力和错误决策的结果。人的任务，不是看清楚远处模糊的东西，而是去做好身边清楚的事。\n凡事往简单处想，往认真处行。人生重要的机会不需要太多，一两次就够了。为什么要着急？明智的人能耐心等待，让时间流逝，体会其中的妙处，大多数人总是瞎忙活…\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["人性","经管"]},{"title":"童年成长寄语","url":"/%E7%AB%A5%E5%B9%B4%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%AF%84%E8%AF%AD.html","content":"\n童年的意义\n到了一定的年纪，你会发现，生命中很多美好的事情都发生过了，剩下的情节，只是重复和老去，日复一年。\n唯有孩子，他们会冲走生活的重复，原来小时候是如此的纯真和充满想象。让你可以重新经历一次童年，让你去买小时候在爸妈面前求之不得的玩具，让你去不断总结怎样做好父母，让你知道控制自己的情绪，放慢自己的语速，从而认清自己，接纳自己。\n低幼孩子的世界很小，除了学校就是家里，两处都给压力，他也就会找其他精神去处或无处可去。有些孩子学习不好是天然的（30%不适合读书），在学业压力下还有家里的支持能相对较好地度过青春期，有些绝望的案例比较极端跟双端压力有关。说到底父母应该清醒，如果世界上必须有人无条件地接纳孩子的不完美，那也责无旁贷是父母。\n父母存在的意义\n我们尽量对孩子好一些，让他们在小时候尽量快乐，因为长大以后他们会遇到很多痛苦，那时候，小时候的快乐就会成为他们最美好的回忆和安慰。\n父母存在的意义，不是给予孩子舒适和富裕的生活，而是当你想到父母时，你内心就充满力量，会感受到温暖从而拥有克服困难的勇气和能力，以此获得人生真正的乐趣和自信。\n幸运的人用童年治愈一生，不幸的人用一生治愈童年。\n学校 vs 家长\n孩子一半时间在学校，195天在校，170天在家，学习的差距不是在学校，而是在家里。\n\n\n学校的教育是批发式的，同样的老师，同样的教学\n\n\n孩子在学校的习惯和表现也是在家庭中培养出来的\n\n\n错过了孩子的成长后续是补不回来的，所以要有固定的更多的陪伴，也不要假手于上一辈，上一辈除非层次很高，否则必然跟现今社会脱节，错误习惯不少，教不好新时代的儿童。性相近，习相远。小朋友在性上差别不大，出现区别是在习上。交给老人或保姆，你的性+老人/保姆的习，养育出的结果，多数情况下不是你希望的。\n\n陪伴和教育是保姆和老人无法替代的\n\n照顾与分离\n照顾和分离，都是父母在孩子身上必须完成的任务。我们理应在孩子年幼时给予强烈的亲密，又需在孩子长大后学会得体的退出。亲子关系是生命中一场深厚的缘分，不是一种恒久的占有，是一场心胸与智慧的远行。\n所谓父子母女一场，你和他的缘分就是今生今世，不断在目送他的背影渐行渐远，你站在小路的这一端，看着他消失在小路转弯的地方，而且他用背影默默告诉你，不必追。\n\n当父母故去独剩你时你会如何接力？假设孩子脱离你独立时如何回顾过往？\n\n对于孩子而言，生命健康存在，在这个世界上走一遍，能体会美好，让父母有机会与他同行一段，也许就是缘分的意义。\n带娃是个技术活\n孩子不是随便生的，也不是当猪养的，带娃有多难，谁带谁知道。\n\n若是冲突硬碰硬，很容易伤害到孩子的小心灵。且小孩子能有什么坏心思呢，多半是父母搞错了，这是一场无硝烟的心理战。\n几个常见的情况或误区如下，得尽力避开\n没耐性，好贪玩\n在很知名的米歇尔实验中发现，哪些能忍住诱惑的孩子，学业和人际关系都更好，这就是很多人都知晓的延迟满足效应（学会忍耐，往往会得到更多）。\n从19个月起就能看出忍耐力的差异，最好从1岁半到8-9岁，训练孩子【加外力】，可以通过转移注意力（例如要玩时，给他讲故事），让他做积攒类的事情（你甚至可以设计一套奖励货币体系—例如用豆子）来进行磨炼。\n训练孩子是好事，怕的是，只训不练，就如下一种情形\n只会消极批评\n很多孩子受到的教育是不断强调他们有多蠢，有多坏，有多么不努力。他们从此失去了信心，变得越来越悲观，因为他们觉得自己一切痛苦都来自倒霉货命运的安排。你可以教会孩子如何拥有乐观的心态，具体的教育方式就是帮助他们理解挫折。告诉孩子们，他们遇到挫折都只是暂时的（不会伴随一生，不是永恒的烙印），只要保持耐心且继续努力就一定能将其克服，他们就会变得乐观。\n\n将时间放长远，也有助于培养乐观情绪，如十年奋斗目标\n\n你与孩子生气，批评，指责，抱怨，全身负能量，只会打击孩子的积极性与自信心，让孩子胆怯自卑，对你越发反感，最终两败俱伤。只会消极的批评，那就是往教育里注水，不但没啥用，还会让孩子心理抵触，只会重复犯错。看好一个人，他就会变好，这就是心理学中的罗森塔尔效应。平时，要多给孩子期望，赞许。这样孩子会从你的语言，表情甚至每一个细胞里，感觉到自己能行。\n犯错时，别急着骂，要给孩立个好人设，孩子是懂事的，心里觉得自己很优秀，就不想让父母失望。要让孩子愿意听你的话。\n神烦家长\n一件事反复哔哔，会让亲子关系，成为世界上最遥远的距离。咱们用马克吐温的故事来举个例子。一次马老听牧师募捐演讲，一听就想捐款，10分钟后，牧师还没讲完，他烦了，只想捐零钱，又过了10分钟，牧师还是没讲完，他气得直接走人，还顺走了两块钱。\n这种刺激太多，时间太长，让人烦的情况，叫做超限效应，孩子不是不可以批评，但最好只批评一次，或只讲一点才有效，总之就是：点到即止。\n强调习惯，不纠缠于某些细节之中，束缚孩子的生机，压制孩子的灵性，耗尽孩子的能量。能量都在小事上耗尽了，大事却疲于应对。\n家庭教育的秘诀是：闭上你的嘴，迈开你的腿。走你的人生路，演示给孩子看，说的越少越管用，越多越反感。爸爸的大格局，妈妈的好情绪，方是孩子成长最好的风水。\n神高侠侣\n家长自视甚高，觉得孩子也是天才，就对孩子要求也神高。试问小孩子哪有那么大能耐，一开始就目标很高，这得吓退多少人。在学习方面，要从简单有趣的东西学期，有兴趣了，才能愿意学下去。\n降级沟通，寓教于乐\n实际上人类孩子说话是自己学会的（常规不超过24个月），周围的人只是帮其纠正纠正，引导引导，他一直在听，听完他就会说，有先开语，也有说贵人语迟的，都学会了，沉浸式学习，体验式学习。要明白，行万里路比读万卷书还重要，花点时间陪孩子出去，沉浸式地去感受一下。\n你跟他需要有一种比较好的方式去沟通和学习，互相提问和启发式的一种学习，你的思维要降到他那个档次，然后再跟他去聊，你变成孩子跟他聊，而不是让他变成成人来跟你聊，这种方式他会把你当朋友，各种各样的问题就会越来越多。\n被夸大的孩子比批评大的一定好，挫折一生太多，无需太多挫折教育，你能把学习寓教于乐是你的本事，但学习真的不快乐，要坚持啊。\n小确幸vs大道理\n小确幸比大道理有用，未来从无数个现在组成，确定性来自于小确幸（每天往前走）\n智力成就来自于不盲从\n《自力更生-self-reliance》是超验主义哲学家/作家拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生最著名和最具代表性的作品之一，发表于 1841 年，里面将自力更生想象成通往真正和平与幸福以及天才和生产力的道路。爱默生审视了人类社会的一些轮廓，这些轮廓使一个人天生的独立思考和行动的能力变得复杂。他将社会比作暴徒，并提出了一些摆脱这种范式的建议，建议有历史局限性，就不提了。\n像其他超验主义者一样，爱默生想象每个人都与上帝有个人联系，没有中间人（例如牧师）的参与。真理和启蒙从内心开始，那里也是上帝对人说话的地方。\n\n\n掌握自力更生的最大障碍是模仿和从众，这两种做法被作者爱默生描述为可耻的流行病，它们浪费了潜力并违背了上帝的本意。\n\n\n在教育范围内，他也拒绝模仿，相反，他认为智力成就只能通过独立的、原创的思想来实现。爱默生坚持认为，过去的伟大思想家理解并体现了这一观念——他们的天才来自他们自己，而不是来自他们的老师或同龄人。这些天才/思想家经常被误解，但却并不害怕来自同龄人的反对或判断。\n\n\n从众要求一个人放弃个人驱动的追求，放弃发现和培养他独特的个人主义的机会。爱默生恳求人们谴责适应和盲目同意规范和惯例的舒适感，呼吁人们采取行动，重建与自己、与周遭的关系。一个人以自己为中心，才能充分发挥自己的潜力，造福于自己和世界。\n\n不可不说100 多年前的一些提法，也有其表达和发现的灵光\n\n育儿看法\n犹太人和华人都比较重视教育（也都重视钱），其实普遍重视教育，中国是不及犹太人的，因为也就是近代的事儿。\n犹太人的节日礼物大部分是书，这个华人族群就相形见绌了。在矮大紧的一些犹太朋友里，他举例家庭里甚至定期会举行读书会，外加定期去旅行，并不是那种豪华的，就是到处去看看世界。到处去看看，是我比较向往的看法，遍历山河，才觉人生值得（出走半生，归来仍是少年，难，成长是一定的）\n\n出走半生，归来仍是少年。这句其实改编于东坡的一句词，词写给自己一个乌台诗案牵连被贬的伉俪夫妇 --《定风波·常羡人间琢玉郎》，其中提到 “万里归来颜愈少”\n\n如果你已有孩子，尽量不要那么焦虑吧，不要把养孩子当做一场精细的科学实验，不要像个直升机一样在孩子头顶盘旋，现在的精细教育，一个孩子都快把六个大人逼死了，其实孩子不需要很多东西，也不需要跟别人攀比，这些都是家长自己心里的问题。这样你的孩子或许才能不叛逆，彬彬有礼，拥有一份出走半生仍是少年的正能量心态。\n\n来自查理.芒格的看法\n孩子来到这个世界是带着预设的半成品，你只需要看着他们自己发展就行了。小时候害羞的长大了依然害羞，固执的孩子长大了还是刚愎自用，没有什么办法能改变这些，但你可以改变自己的态度。\n\n智商回归\n智商有个均值回归现象，如果越来越聪明，一代比一代强，人类就不是今天这个样子，每代人都是不同的馈赠，只是今天你以文化课的成绩去衡量。\n例如数学是有天赋的，大概 $\\frac{1}{2000}$ ~$\\frac{1}{10000}$，才能有特别特殊的人才，他的大脑拓扑结构特适合学数学，但不等于科科都强，或者这辈子能比别人幸福。很多过于理性的人终身不幸福，因为他不能被周围的人理解。\n与孩子的对话\n不是我听不见，是你的脾气让我根本听不见，听不懂\n55-38-7定律\n\n当你跟一个人说话时，对方能感知到的，是\n\n55% 的形象和态度\n38% 的眼神和语气\n7% 的具体内容\n\n\n当你带着脾气跟孩子说话，孩子真正听到的只有 7%，那就意味着，你不得不反反复复地吼叫（你以为自己说的很清楚，但实际上，孩子完全没接收到你的信息，他们的大脑还在考虑安全的问题）\n当大脑遭遇到突发危机时，只会有三种情况：攻击，逃跑，冰冻。这就是孩子表现出来的行为，要么反抗，要么逃避，要么就是呆住。\n夸孩子的套路：FFC模型\n\n\nFeeling，指的是给我什么感受\n\n\nFact，感受的事实依据\n\n\nCompare，跟什么比较\n\n\n举个栗子\n\n女儿，妈妈今天很欣慰，我今天什么都没说，你就把锅洗了，居然比我洗的还认真\n\n牛娃培养\n在孩子教育的修罗场，想改变，只有两个办法：\n\n\n换个环境；\n\n\n不换环境，但无视无孔不入的环境压力。要是选第二条修罗之路。你将带着孩子，与周边的大环境为敌，你们将成为现行牛蛙试炼教育体系中的异类，绝不是一条容易坚持下去的道路。\n\n\n\n而作为异类在学校压力也是很大的，娃很难开心起来，对其成长也有影响\n\n你选择不屈服于现行教育体制，人家牛蛙整天在书山题海中搏击，你孩子虽然见多识广，但考试成绩不跻身上流，走国内的高考独木桥肯定会被挤下去，所以有种看法是最早初中毕业，最晚高中毕业，必须得出国，从背背背跳到想想想的国度，开启另一份残酷竞争。如果作为父母，不具备今后送孩子出国留学的经济基础，那你和你的孩子其实没有太多的选择空间。\n一个人的命运，既取决于宏观上的时代大环境，又取决于不可知的偶然性。决定未来富贵贫贱的因素，其实读书只在第五位，就像老古言说的，一命二运三风水，四积阴德五读书。直白点说，排在教育之前的还有出身与天赋（学区房有一个最大的不确定性是政策性风险），父母的格局和境界也是孩子出身的一种，起跑线的一种。\n让孩子提升认知，增长见识，关键是从理解学习的乐趣和世界的本质出发，从“要我学”变成“我要学”，有理工科的思维思辨模式和文科的表达能力，是最好的组合，如果还能有一定的艺术欣赏能力，就更好了。整体一生，最需要给孩子的，是理性的思维习惯和健全的人格素养。\n旅行是保持学习，获得不同思维方式的最佳方式之一（磨炼差异化思维，与他人和谐相处）。看看世界是什么样子，比纯待在学校有意义，尽量多带他们出去旅行，孩子的人生都将因此而改变。\n饱和教育\n普通人生活中能用到的数学知识，学到初二就够了，二次函数都用不上，再往后学的什么集合，指数函数，对数函数，复数，数列，立体几何，解析几何，空间向量，大部分早就还给老师了，但为什么我们还要学习呢？就是要透过数学，掌握这种相对复杂的思维能力。\n\n补充一句：深度的科研，应用技术，及理论层面，都离不开这些数学内容\n\n言传身教\n\n家长陷入了我执（不知足），其实孩子病了你只希望他赶快好。\n\n我执的本质应该是执我，而不是去执别人，孩子在弹钢琴的家庭长大，大概率会掌握会乐于弹，地球上只有不合格的父母。\n身教重言传，爹妈不看书孩子为什么看书。大家（母鸡）特别中意生一个蛋，然后告诉这个蛋，你要变凤凰。她/他忘了他自己要先变成凤凰，一起努力变成凤凰。教育不是教他，育他，而是一同成长，教育我们自己。做了父母最好有共处时间，当没有时间陪伴就算了，还不能很好的做榜样就比较惋惜。\n\n父母通常在12岁之后就不是孩子的榜样了，因为他必须逆反，对你批判否定，此时需要更高的榜样。提前引导认知一个好的榜样给他很有必要\n\n孩子的教育是将自己化作以一座桥，一个梯子，让孩子看到外面广阔的世界以及世界深处的真相。教育就是让孩子看见什么，带着他看，行走在历史、科学和现实中，能带多高带多高，培养其眼界和胸怀。从养育上看，有这么几点重要的要素：\n\n眼界和胸怀，自然有灵气。也影响其价值观\n对人和自然的仁慈和悲悯\n学识和教养，增加底蕴\n训练专注和自制。出活和迅速的长进离不开这种状态，在时间的催化下，就显现出不同\n慢慢培养其圆融和自在\n\n三代人培养一代人\n其实是他需要从爷爷奶奶姥姥姥爷那一辈，他就要有一个很好的表率，因为他会跨代影响到下一代。\n你会发现很多高知家庭，孩子后来的气质是不一样的，从小看到的东西生态或文化的基因已经构成了一种他意愿的积极向上。贵是指精神的高贵，是有一个过程。在物质上完成脱贫的中国，精神上脱贫的路还很长。\n静待花开vs拔苗助长\n家长其实在很多的要求脱离了孩子当前的一个认知的局限，让孩子在该玩的时候去各种书山字海，等孩子真的该书山字海的时候，他烦了他开始玩了，因为你太早的让他干了不该干的事儿，然后他一定要补偿过来。\n应有的人格心态\n说句难听的话，没几个孩子长大真成功了，最需要最实用的教育是：如何在没能成功的人生里随遇而安，此时，那些“没用”的东西(如艺术、品味)就变得弥足珍贵，孩子长大不会痛苦失落，做父母的就成功了，当然这不是劝你一起始就随遇而安。\n人生识字忧患始，看清了世道险恶，依然选择良善，看清了命途多舛，依然选择乐观，这才是强者应具备的最难得的生存智慧和生命品格。\n我们无法改变出身，无法改变环境，我们能改变的，只有内心的态度。\n\n同样是前途未卜，在王维笔下，是”劝君更尽一杯酒，西出阳关无故人“，在高适笔下，则成了”莫愁前路无知己，天下谁人不识君“的慷慨豪迈。\n同样是咏梅，陆游笔下成了”无意苦争春，一任群芳妒，零落成泥碾作尘，只有香如故“的落寞寂寥，但在毛泽东笔下，成了”俏也不争春，只把春来报，待到山花烂漫时，她在丛中笑“的豁达开朗。\n\n\n成绩差不代表人品差，分数低不代表能力低。作为家长，对孩子三观，人品，情商的教育才谓当仁不让，不可忽视，说是进入社会的长期成功因素不为过。\n成绩好就报效国家，成绩不好就承欢膝下。\n\n认知拓展过程\n\n要不要让孩子从小留学？\n这要反问你的孩子将来会在哪里生活，要知道，各国的基础教育都是为了在那个国家生活好而准备的。它的目的是获得在特定社会生活所需要的最重要的一些东西，包括让你形成对世界的看法，学会一些基本方法和工具，便于将来继续学习具体的技能。\n按杨振宁的说法，把中学生送到美国去教育是一个非常危险的事情，因为美国整个的社会是一个放纵型社会，好处是容许一个人个性发展，但走的太极端。年轻人容易受同学影响堕落，掉下去就回不来。中国的教育对于90分以下的学生是好的，可以使得这些小孩成材，将来做一个对国家前进有用处的人，90 分以上的小孩在美国占便宜，因为他不需要规规矩矩的念书，他自己就可以吸收进去，海阔天空的发展更有利，尤其是对于最聪明的人。千千万万规规矩矩努力的学生是新中国成功的基石，没有中国的教育制度，不可能有现今的改开成就。你是独奏家固然了不起，构建大交响乐团更需要协作合奏的人。\n当你理解基础教育的目的，也就能明白为什么编程和奥数这样的课程，对很多小学生来说是浪费时间，因为基础教育阶段并不需要学习这么具体的技能，这样反而可能耽搁他们的全面发展。\n人到高中，一个人接受的其实仍然是全方位的教育（因为人类寿命的增加，社会分工变得越来越复杂，基础教育不得不延长），所以中学阶段的教育，其实就是在小学教育的基础上再包一个同心圆。\n高等教育如何理解\n其实到了大学生认知边界仍然是个圆，本科教育虽然有专业之分，仍然有通识教育的成分，大学学的，未必会做那方面的事情，只不过有了全面的了解。在高等教育阶段， 尽量争取学的非常广，因为知识是相通的。人应该像一个圆规，扎的深，画的圈大。\n而到了硕士研究生阶段，人的知识体系重心真正开始往一个方向偏移，因为人没有时间和精力在每一个方向都前进了。\n硕士和博士有什么区别？\n\n硕士是学会使用前人经验，解决实际问题；\n而博士则是需要创造出前人不知道的知识（也就是图上超越原有边界那个突出的红色部分）。\n\n真实的世界可能是下面这张图所描绘的，知识的边界比人的认知边界要广阔得多。\n\n公立教育体系的内核\n教育既是现代社会的最大福利，也是最大的枷锁，不要对学校的教育有任何的幻想。\n\n中国的教育是叫人听话服从奉献的地方；\n西方的教育是你是最棒的，我们生而平等，但连小九九都整不明白。\n\n真正的教育是教育我们的孩子寻找生命的意义，自己存在的意义，爱自己，爱他人，勇敢的去走自己的路，面对自己的责任，然后这有另外一个名字，叫精英教育，是需要很多很多钱的，需要教育的人博雅宽广，学校里一码数理化的劳动技术教育，东方西方都在把孩子教育成工具，让国家政府提供真正的教育是不现实的，因为成本太高了。\n父母也是被这套体系灌输大的，嘴上抱怨自己是燃料，但让他摆脱燃料思维，还得跟你拼。要想醒悟过来，需要更多时间这些思想剥离，这一过程如同敲骨吸髓让人痛苦，如同三观重塑内耗极大。\n是思想在统治这个世界，古今中外都一样，人类历史就是一个精英与平民，农民与地主的游戏，洋洋得意玩了几千年，为了让这个游戏一直玩下去，就不要不停生产并往里面添加更多平民或农民，社会分配利益的模式是一个人所处的社会位置，教育是一个给底层进阶的狭窄通道。\n要想让孩子通过教育在未来有一个好位置。首先，尽可能的多教育自己，实际上很多父母对孩子的焦虑本质是对自己无能的宣泄，和对生活的不满，是自我认知的匮乏。一切都是废话，想鸡娃，那就努力搞钱。\n\n\n有至少30%的孩子真的不适合读书，要提前想好出路。不要完美，尝试成为老师的工具（那些智力和个性都比较平庸的人大部分都被应试教育毁灭，他们把一生中最好的年华浪费掉了）回头看七十年代出头的最有希望的两类人，一种是智力出色对付题海战术之外还有时间发展自己兴趣的人，另一种就是那些没考上大学或者干脆辍学的人。\n\n\n有5%的孩子不用管他，他也能211、985\n\n约翰-伯努利花了半年时间整出来最速降线的一般解问题，得意洋洋去挑战牛顿，而牛顿花了半天时间解决问题\n牛顿一辈子没画出来的正 17 边形，高斯一晚上就画出来了\n\n\n\n剩下的比的就是钱，不要对基础教育有任何幻想，一切只能靠自己\n\n\n\n应试教育本质不是教育，是圈层选拔（只要跟考试有关）。解题技巧在人生中没什么直接用处、实用价值，但训练了大脑的连接思维方式，另外也可以说筛选的是性格，坚持做一件自己不喜欢的事并把它做好，有责任感，这决定了一个人发展的上限。\n圈层选拔进入到大学之后忽然进入下一轮次的选拔，除开想做研究式的好好学习，一定要了解更多关于通识的东西（Liberal Arts）。\n\n此阶段这个世界没有正确答案，到处全都是正确答案。\n从应试教育的角度看，总是有对有错，但Liberal Arts角度答案不同，关键是视角问题。\n\n\n驴论\n学校只是把你培养成一个怎么转圈转的更好的驴，好学校就是把你培养成一头好驴，你怎么样获得真正的自由和快乐，实际一点来讲，就是挣更多的钱，这个不是学校能教你的，你要跳出驴的思维，要去想我怎么能当一个农场主，这甚至是学校不鼓励你那么做的。它就不会告诉你你们这些驴都生活在一个农场上。\n怎么成为一个农场主呢，先承认自己是一个不优秀的驴，你放下想要去做一头好驴的执念，你自然而然就走另一条道了。\n结语\n有很多关乎儿童成长的书，简直汗牛充栋，不知道怎么选时，就去樊登那去找吧，内容没毛病，看一本足够，其余的都是修行。\n父母子女的缘分\n为人父母和为人子女，这辈子这是一种缘分，你们之间真正能相处的时间（考虑到上学，上班的开销，睡觉的时间），很短。小的时候你要照顾他，他有了自我意识自己开始有更强的独立精神后，你可能管不了他了，工作以后他来看你已经变成了你的一种奢望了，你们真正能相处的时间我相信几年吧。\n\n据统计，儿女高中毕业后，一生跟父母相处的时间就已过了93%，能陪伴的时间只剩了7%\n人类能留下亲子之情已经是很幸运了，自然界的幼崽成熟后，多数几乎一辈子不会再见到父母，这样的认知是不是很正能量！\n\n这就是你们一生的缘分，何必上那么多枷锁，大家都活一辈子，换句话讲，他过的好不好，跟你没关，你觉得你过得好不好，你要怨你的父母吗？你自认为你改变所有事情你才能幸福，后来你才弄明白，你改变你自己就幸福了，把握现在，自己做好，孩子会跟着你的方式去做的，你快乐了，他就快乐了，他是你的影子，是你的印随效应。\n给孩子讲什么叫成功，什么叫幸福，他是体会不到的，这些词对成年人来讲都很奢侈，更别说对孩子。孩子快乐很简单，而成人简单很快乐。你只要简单了，快乐了，孩子自然就快乐了。\n千言万语一句话\n众生皆苦，愿对孩子献上无条件的❤️\n其实孩子幼儿期远比你想象中更爱你。当我们心情不好控制不住会发脾气，甚至对孩子打骂，然而当孩子心情不好时我们却制止他们发脾气还对他们加以批评甚至教训。为什么我们难以做到的事情却要求孩子做到，而孩子不但不会心生怨恨还会想办法取悦我们，孩子其实也是这世上曾经最疼爱你的人。换句话说，曾几何时，孩子对母亲的爱比母爱更纯粹。\n\n从某种角度讲，我们的人生都是所谓的二手的人生，父母总会把他们的经验，他们的喜怒哀乐加到我们身上，只是孩子和父母都不自知罢了。有一本《带蛤蟆先生看心理医生》讲这方面挺多，对情绪原理感兴趣可以传送过去看看。\n不要把劲儿都使在孩子身上，如果你自己充实，快乐，有责任感，有情绪管理能力，孩子会模仿你的。教育从来不是要求，而是影响，道无他，唯爱与榜样而已。真正觉醒的家庭，只改变自己，不改变孩子。人的最佳状态是找到自己不与任何人绑定的人生使命，好好享受人生这场游戏。\n你给孩子真正的财富正是在于你突破了你曾经遭受的种种限制一路披荆斩棘走到今天的经历和力量，以及你继续这样走向未来更加成熟通达的智慧，拥有这样力量和智慧的孩子，他以后会怎样呢？莫小瞧了自己，也小瞧了你的孩子，享受过程，相信自己，相信就是最大的力量。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["亲子"]},{"title":"信息系统安全等级保护","url":"/%E7%AD%89%E4%BF%9D%E5%88%86%E7%BA%A7.html","content":"\n等级保护定义\n《网络安全法》规定&quot;国家实行网络安全等级保护制度&quot;，公司应当按照网络安全等级保护制度的要求，履行安全保护义务，不履行的将会面临相关法律责任的处罚，要求各企业借助等保推动风险隐患问题改进。\n《计算机信息系统安全保护等级划分准则（GB 17859-1999）》，将系统划分为 5 个级别：\n\n\n\n\n定级要求\n防护水平\n处理能力\n恢复能力\n\n\n\n\n一级：用户自主保护级\n信息系统收到破坏后，会对公民，法人和其它组织的合法权益造成损害，担不损害国家安全，社会秩序和公共利益。\n防护免受来自个人的、拥有很少资源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、一般的自然灾难、以及其他相当危害程度的威胁所造成的关键资源损害\n-\n在自身遭到损害后，能够恢复部分功能\n\n\n二级：系统审计保护级\n破坏后，会对公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益产生严重损害，或对社会秩序和公共利益造成损害，但不损害国家安全\n防护免受来自外部小型组织的、拥有少量资源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、 一般的自然灾难、以及其他相当危害程度的威胁所造成的重要资源损害\n能够发现重要的安全漏洞和处置安 全事件\n自身遭到损害后，能够在一段时间内恢复部分功能\n\n\n三级：安全标记保护级。三级以上（含三级）信息系统应明确网络安全负责人\n破坏后，会对社会秩序和公共利益造成严重损害，或者对国家安全造成损害，或对公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益产生特别严重损害。\n在统一安全策略下防护免受来自外部有组织的团体、拥有较为丰富资源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、较为严重的自然灾难、以及其他相当危害程度的威胁所造成的主要资源损害\n能够及时发现、监测攻击行为和处置安全事件\n自身遭到损害后，能够较快恢复绝大部分功能\n\n\n四级:结构化保护级\n破坏后，会对社会秩序和公共利益造成特别严重损害，或者对国家安全造成严重损害\n应能够在统一安全策略下防护免受来自国家级别的、敌对组织的、拥有丰富资 源的威胁源发起的恶意攻击、严重的自然灾难\n能够及时发现、监测发现攻击行为和安全事件\n在自身遭到损害后，能够迅速恢复所有功能\n\n\n五级:访问验证保护级\n破坏后，会对国家安全造成特别严重损害\n略\n略\n略\n\n\n\n\n一般来说，公司是一到四级。二级以上（含二级）必须参加等保测评工作。\n二级系统每两年进行一次等保测评，三级每一年，四级每半年\n三级等保是对非银行机构的最高等级保护认证\n举两个四级的例子：国家级广播电视中心播出系统；国有商业银行、全国性股份制商业银行和中国邮政储蓄银行的核心业务信息系统或综合业务信息系统\n\n\n等保 2.0 安全通用要求\n每一级的标准都有详细的技术和管理指导，可查阅详细的标准文件，摘抄太长，只简要列一下标准骨架。\nmindmap\n  root((安全通用要求))\n    技术要求\n      安全物理环境\n      安全通信网络\n      安全区域边界\n      安全计算中心\n      安全管理中心\n    管理要求\n      安全管理制度\n      安全管理机构\n      安全管理人员\n      安全建设管理\n      安全运维管理\n概念解释\n社会秩序\n\n影响国家机关，企事业单位、社会团体的生产秩序、经营秩序、教学科研秩序、医疗卫生秩序\n影响公共场所活动秩序、公共交通秩序\n影响人民群众生活秩序\n其它影响社会秩序的事项\n\n公共利益\n不特定社会成员所共同享有的，维持其生产、生活、教育、卫生等方面的利益，表现为：\n\n社会成员使用公共设施\n社会成员获取公开信息资源\n社会成员获取公共服务等\n\n国家安全\n\n影响国家政权稳固和领土主权、海洋权益完整\n影响国家统一、民族团结和社会稳定\n影响国家社会主义市场经济秩序和文化实力\n其它影响国家安全的事项\n\n损害程度\n一般损害\n\n对客体造成一定损害和影响，经采取恢复和弥补措施，可消除部分影响\n工作职能受到局部影响，业务能力有所降低但不影响主要功能的执行，出现较轻法律问题，较低财产损失，有限的社会不良影响，对其他组织和个人造成较低损害\n\n严重损害\n\n指对客体造成严重损害，经采取恢复和弥补措施，仍产生较大影响\n工作职能受到严重影响，业务能力显著下降且严重影响主要功能的执行，出现较严重的法律问题，较高的财产损失，较大范围的社会不良影响，对其他组织和个人造成较严重损害\n\n特别严重损害\n\n是指对客体造成特别严重损害，后果特别严重，影响重大且无法弥补\n工作职能收到特别严重影响或丧失行使能力，业务能力严重下降且或功能无法执行，出现极其严重的法律问题，极高的财产损失，大范围的社会不良影响，对其他组织和个人造成非常严重损害\n\n定级参考\n伤害程度定级\n\n\n\n系统服务安全被破坏时所侵害的客体\n对客体的侵害程度\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n一般损害\n严重损害\n特别严重损害\n\n\n公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益\n第一级\n第二级\n第三级\n\n\n社会秩序、公共利益\n第二级\n第三级\n第四级\n\n\n国家安全\n第三级\n第四级\n第五级\n\n\n\n业务类型定级\n云平台类型系统（IAAS、PAAS、SAAS）\n\n考虑属于系统基础设施，一般建议至少定三级。IAAS，PAAS 需要着重考虑\n不得低于云上部署的系统最高级别\n\n在线交易类型系统\n\n一般至少定三级，另参考行业标准\n必须具备业务监管部门下发的业务许可，才能开展系统备案工作\n\n大数据平台\n\n涉及个人信息处理的大数据平台，至少定三级\n\n最高法定义用户信息泄露『造成严重后果』定义：致使泄露行踪轨迹信息，通信内容，征信信息，财产信息 500 条以上的；致使泄露住宿信息、通信记录、健康生理信息、交易信息等其他可能影响人身、财产安全的用户信息5000 条以上的；致使泄露如上规定以外用户信息 5w 条以上的。\n系统涉及个人信息类型及数量超过以上数量的，会建议定三级。行业主管部门有另行定义的，参考主管部门定义为主\n\n\n处理个人信息必须获得个人信息主体授权，并需制定个人信息保护相关制度规范\n\n应对加固举例\n标准的制定有很多服务商的参与，各家也各有应对方案整理，举例如下\nmindmap\n  false\n    威胁预测（攻击控制）\n      威胁情报预警\n      应急预案及演练\n    威胁防护（事件预防）\n      安全策略优化\n      安全基线评估加固\n      系统上线安全检查\n      安全产品运行维护\n    响应处置（事件控制）\n      安全事件研判分析\n      安全应急响应处置\n      安全事件实时通报\n    持续检测（事件检测）\n      全流量风险分析\n      网站检测\n      web失陷检测\n      渗透测试\n参考\n1.FREEBUF 等保2.0看这一篇就够了 ↩2.中南民族大学 深入解读等保2.0 ↩3.微信公众号 等保信息系统定级指导（国标+行标） ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["安全"]},{"title":"简读中国史摘记","url":"/%E7%AE%80%E8%AF%BB%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%8F%B2.html","content":"\n\n摘记最晚于2019年12月2日，那是一个在地铁上还不用戴口罩的日子\n\n地理文化论\n祖先崇拜是中国特有的，也是地理决定论，能安心发展农业，老年人的经验就非常有用。不像希腊要航海靠年轻人，中东战争冲突厉害，也要靠年轻人。自给自足的小农经济，是这种关系的保障。中国自西向东的河流也进一步强化此种情况（纬度相似资源出产也相似）。\n像中东文明中。资源必须靠互换和社会分工的地理环境，血缘纽带断裂就被神庙关系所取代。\n\n世界上大部分民族关于亲属的称谓25个，中国的有350个，分的很细。\n\n青铜器战车等都是从中东传入中国，因为地理的优势，战争压力较小，青铜器的发展方向朝向了礼器。不像中东朝向战争和耕种。中国民间仍然用石器耕种。\n西周的开创性\n商代的上天是只属于商族的上天。周代的上台创造了一项新统治宣言，上天是所有人的上天，改朝换代是因为前朝德行不足了，天命被替代。改信鬼神为信天命。在更广泛的宗族分封下，在一套套理法、仪式下，周代持续的够久。使得这条规则被后代普遍采用。这其实是创造性的，因为世界其它地方到今后很长的时间都在围绕侍奉鬼神干事，周代直接摆脱了宗教束缚，成为致力于现世幸福的世俗文化国家。\n嫡长子继承制也是周代订立，解决商代混乱的弊病。甚至这也是中国政治远凌驾于经济的根源（配合不能僭越的各种级别规定）。所谓周礼就是规定不同辈分的人、关系远近不同的人，见面该怎么行礼，平时该怎么交往。因为他就是一个家天下的封建朝代。\n\n我们的贵族时代在公元前就结束了，所以今天的中国人确实已经很难理解春秋战国时代老祖宗们的内心世界。秦汉的上台塑造了流传至今的文化。\n烽火戏诸侯别解\n周幽王的烽火戏诸侯虽然是史记记载，但稍显简单夸张，一把烽火诸侯不可能同时到达（地理距离）。但反映周天子已经号令不动诸侯（亲缘关系已越来越疏远），周平王迁都洛阳，东周春秋战国开始。\n东周纷争\n权威协商崩溃，森林法则统治。\n\n\n春秋时代战争是贵族游戏，灭掉的都是大国旁的小国，战争很少超过3天。战国就功利明显，就是为了消灭和掠夺。\n\n\n春秋时代师不伐丧，战国时代国君去世恰是出兵的好时机。\n\n\n铁器改造关系\n铁器在春秋末战国初出现，极大的提高了农业生产力。原来的诸侯国更像是碉堡据点，之间的空地可能没人要，住的是野民或异族。铁器出现后，空地大量被开发，国与国之间就接壤，利益冲突就明显了，战争来也。\n家国逆转\n秦之前，家大于国，这时候伍子胥为父仇报复楚国，并且将楚王鞭尸，在离他较近的史书中对其是肯定的，没有将其视作叛徒。\n而后，国大于家。政府的政策将小共同体社会打散，让多子的必须分拆居住，在自然村基本很少找到同姓的（非宗族化乡村）。三国时虽然世家大族与皇权分庭抗礼，但皇权直接控制的区域基层仍然是被打散。大家看到的一个村一个族的现象，基本是宋代后宗族复兴的结果。\n没有国大于家，想提高国家动员能力和汲取能力是不可能的，就像40万人修长城，50万人戍五岭，70万人修始皇陵，修阿房宫，都是周天子是不敢想象的。\n秦制的延续\n异人始皇帝\n秦始皇从来没没自称天子，他抛弃西周信天命，干的不好君权可以换人的天命观。还废除了谥号制度，觉得臣议论君是不被允许的，没有这套怎么搞，那自己就是始皇帝，二世三世往后数。可没想到二世而亡。还不立皇后，觉得没有女人能与他平起平坐。\n秦灭亡的原因是统一之后，对百姓的汲取体系还在高速的运转。\n郡县制的磨合\n中央政府一方面希望省一级政府大到可以集中力量来平息各地起义，另一方面，又希望它小到没有能力反叛中央。这个郡县平衡是历史上摸索了很久的。\n秦汉\n秦40郡，汉觉得太少，面积太大，不好控制，分成100郡，又太多，管起来太累，就又搞13战区，变成州郡县三级。\n魏晋唐\n魏晋南北朝吸收东汉三国的教训，州越整越小，搞出200个州，唐代直接整出350多个州，皇帝能记住？唐太宗写满一屏风，头疼。\n宋元明清\n宋吸取唐的教训，不给省一级政府集权身份，搞制衡分立，军权，财权，人事权分由不同的人执掌，这也导致宋对外敌能力较弱。\n元觉得宋这样搞法太没效率了，一上来就划分行省，集权管理。他少数名族，派的长官也是蒙古人。他不像汉人政权害怕地方官和地方社会搞成一体对抗中央。清朝也和元朝一样没这个担忧，明朝就不行，得仿宋，所以在御外敌或镇压起义时就很不得力。后期设总督巡抚集权已经晚了，镇压不力，导致亡国。\n央地博弈\n汉人王朝都有一个特点：一开始都是二级政府，而且坚决不愿设立面积较大或者权力统一的省级政府，但是后来因为省一级政府力量太小，地方动荡无法平定，只好下放权力，让省一级政区扩大，集权，以便有能力镇压起义，结果变成三级政府。然而地方每一次权力太大，总会导致分裂局面出现，新的王朝接受前代的教训，再一次强干弱枝，这么个循环往替(二三级间，只有少数民族王朝不担心这个)。\n第二个规律是上一个规律下的小规律，省一级政府内的分权和集权，就跟上面讲的宋元明清循环的区别一样。秦在已开始是分权设计的（三权分立），导致地方很弱，无力对抗中央，当东汉黄巾起义，不得不集权镇压，又导致割据。\n还有第三个规律，皇帝老不相信地方官。所以派巡视组，巡视组再固化成新地方大员，再派新巡视组。导致地方大员的名字常觉得很怪，像是个动词。如刺史，行省，巡抚，元代的行中书省事。\n隋唐夷狄之风\n隋文帝怕老婆那是因为鲜卑文化中女人地位高，贵母而轻父（母为外人，容易引起部落间冲突），唐初的府兵制也来自于鲜卑的部落兵制，当兵有荣誉感，免徭役，汉人耕种养活府兵，战斗力强。\n后来开始募兵制后，当兵就为吃饭，战斗力就不行了。均田制也来自于草原的习俗。\n四川遭遇的兵祸，也算是严重。南明将领给孙可望的信里说，四川荆棘塞道，野兽成群，人烟灭绝，偶尔碰到人也是残疾。\n帝国经济的逻辑\n中国对商人的防范成型于春秋的管仲，他认为财富集中到巨富个人手中，是非常危险的。有钱则难以以禄来驱使，剩下一些很穷的光脚不怕穿鞋的，以威也驱使不动，对国君都是不利的，最好的原则是力出一孔，这一孔就是君主的赐予。经济权力由国家统一掌握，这样的国家才强大无敌。\n财政的循环崩溃\n开国皇帝订立的轻徭薄赋执行不下去:\n\n一来官僚系统膨胀开销要从老百姓头上刮\n二来皇族膨胀（如明代皇族由国家供养，营收就靠生娃，设定标准有问题，皇族膨胀到100w人，导致多个省的赋税总量还不够供养本省皇族）\n三来各种不便或新增成本都要算到老百姓头上。\n\n鸦片战争的侧面\n自大露软肋\n乾隆因执着于英使臣不向其下跪的问题，没有听到西洋最先进物件的讲解，自己看不懂以为跟之前的无甚差别，错失了追赶的时机。为了显示军威，让英国人所到之地，都全副武装列队展示。不秀不要紧，这下把家底都抖出来了。英国人发现中国人还在用200年前的玩意。清军的技术还停留在明末的水准上。构筑了鸦片战争的军事信心。\n帝国的财政\n为啥鸦片战争打了一会就停了？不是英军不敢持久战，其实是因为大清的财政吃不住了。鸦片战争的开销已占到清全年财政的70%（贪污与装备重造，贪污占1/3，总开销3000万两，财政一年刚4000万两），而远道而来的英军开销只占到全年财政的8%。打下去清庭要破产。\n中国的人口是英国的27倍，财政收入英国却是中国的4倍。\n工业革命要素\n工业革命的两大促进动因\n\n人工工资高（有动力改进技术）+资源配套。阿姆斯特丹和伦敦的人工工资都很高（因生活水平高），但工业革命为啥没出现在荷兰，这就要说到另一个因素（煤炭资源），因机器是钢铁制造的，需要冶炼，荷兰在自然资源方面有天然缺陷。\n资本。西班牙不可谓没钱，但因为地理原因造就的落后的封建统治和沉重的税收，使得钱并未促成制造业发展，而是养就的炫耀性消费。\n\n现代化发展文化土壤\n现代化除了制度原因之外，还需要文化土壤。提供这种土壤有两种文化，清教文化和儒家文化，共同特征是积极进取，勤奋节俭。\n\n\n清教文化强调教徒在尘世中必须恪尽职守，将取得成功看做是上帝选择的证明，将饥饿与贫困看做是上帝对懒惰者的惩罚。\n\n\n儒家更为入世，不追求虚无缥缈的来世，天行健，君子以自强不息，齐家治国平天下。\n\n\n西葡法的天主教文化是种中世纪性格的宗教，宣扬受罪是好事，是未来获得永恒拯救的前提，既然托付给了上帝，索性万事不急。\n天主教文化圈的时间观念比较淡薄，能拖就拖，戏称明日文化，西班牙人对每一个要求，都回答以快乐的明天。\n结语\n每一个国家的发展道路，都是由它的地理条件和文化传统等各种因素汇集而成，无所谓对错。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["历史"]},{"title":"管好自己，自我修炼","url":"/%E7%AE%A1%E5%A5%BD%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%EF%BC%8C%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC.html","content":"\n大家谈及你能管理他人，首先都说你要管好自己，封面是知乎上一位分享的管理清单，类似于脑图但其实分解的还不够细，保不了你做出偏差或执行不足，离系统化的全面还欠了那么一步，可能最近在思考培训中接触的流程化-动作分解的作法，着了道（抽象的不容易错，细致的各有各的练法），面对任何内容都要的是聪明的模仿，带有思考的模仿，不断进化的是你的认知。\n管好自己，自我修炼\n\n\n人的维度，要学会通过培训和辅导他人，做一名教练，建流程去管理你的团队\n\n\n事的维度，要主动去定义问题，做一个主动轮，驱动事情落地\n\n\n管理是干出来的，将管理动作嵌入到日常的工作中，才不用疲于奔命，帮助你做一个收放自如的管理者\n管理日历工具\n打粮草-团队管理\n\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n团队交接\n1.检查团队交接制度，抽查下属间交接\n\n\n鼓舞士气\n1.解决一线问题找体感\n\n\n立威立规\n1.年度施政演讲，提出/重申团队合作规矩\n\n\n激励老人\n1.每季度与下属1vs1聊天，了解发展，收入，情感三方面需求2.组织一次有员工家属参加的互动活动3.对岗位工作出现审美疲劳的老员工安排适当的轮岗\n\n\n考核下属\n1. 对员工业绩表现进行及时反馈2. 反馈下属上月/季度业绩表现并沟通本月/季度目标3. 沟通去年业绩表现，提出今年业绩期望，制定并沟通KPI\n\n\n\n打粮草-战略落地\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n向上管理\n1. 写周报，抄送上级（上级的上级），并批改下属周报2. 适时的一对一谈话，汇报周期进展，确定新工作方向3. 全年业绩述职复盘，沟通去年业绩表现，听取今年的期望4. 可行的话，邀请上级和团队一起实地工作，让他了解你们的工作\n\n\n战略落地\n1. 拆解业绩积木，计算资源缺口\n\n\n争取资源\n1.和兄弟部门负责人吃饭2.复盘本月业绩达成情况，并利用复盘机会继续争取资源3.计划完成后进行资源申请\n\n\n任务分配\n1. 分配月度目标和资源，并可视化展示\n\n\n化解冲突\n1. 对资源使用情况进行矫正2. 颁布年度资源分配权重原则\n\n\n带队冲锋\n1. 备战期切换作战状态，冲锋期带队冲锋\n\n\n\n增肥力-团队管理\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n人岗匹配\n1. 制定编制预算，绘制组织架构图，标注关键岗位和缺编情况\n\n\n招聘面试\n1.面试候选人，优化面试流程\n\n\n招募牛人\n1. 回顾&amp;调整内部推荐制度2. 出席行业论坛并发言\n\n\n引领新人\n1.新员工午餐与新员工一周的关怀2.听取新人汇报一个月的工作情况3.优化新人入职体验\n\n\n培训发展\n1.组织一次外部专家的讲座\n\n\n经验萃取\n1. 在于优秀员工或指导他，或你自己的工作中萃取\n\n\n考察下属\n1.考察潜力表现，打出排序\n\n\n价值规范\n1. 进行价值观的宣导，搜集正面和反面案例2.对价值观行为进行评估\n\n\n文化打造\n1. 组织一次”朋友的团建“2.”队友的团建“，宣导使命愿景和文化价值观3. 年底业绩任务冲锋期，组织一次”战友的团建“\n\n\n人才梯队\n1.人才九宫格找出各梯队下属，对盘点结果进行沟通\n\n\n人才盘活\n1. 制定下属IDP个人发展计划&amp;绩效沟通\n\n\n团队学习\n1.绘制团队学习地图，并更新课题负责人2.攻克3个课题，并形成培训微课程\n\n\n\n增肥力-战略落地\n\n\n\n关键任务\n表头\n\n\n\n\n业务探索\n1. 用业务盘点矩阵和业务优先矩阵对手头工作进行盘点\n\n\n持续优化\n1.优化一条工作流程\n\n\n商业常识\n1. 和兄弟部门回顾联合KPI达成情况，制定下一步的计划\n\n\n战略思维\n1.学习公司战略文件，制定部门的承接工作\n\n\n\nIDP\n指既满足组织要求的岗位能力提升又包括了学习者个性化学习需求的年度学习计划\n通常按时间分解到季度/月份，上级主管也会督促、跟踪员工的学习\n评价成就动机\n为自己/团队设定具有挑战性的目标，并努力实习它\n\n第一级：目标不清晰，安于现状，缺乏工作热情，对待工作得过且过，难以达到要求标准\n第二级：具有上进心，努力将工作做得更好，对自己有较高的标准，乐观面对工作中的困难，设定某个优秀的标准，不断改善工作\n第三级：在仔细权衡代价和利益，利与弊的基础上做出某种决策，克服一切困难，以便获得更大利益\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队","职涯"]},{"title":"精品年代的竞争","url":"/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html","content":"\n由QQ浏览器的背锅遭遇说开去\n看到鹅厂一篇文章反馈用户抱怨QQ浏览器耗费流量，经查其实是其它软件在背后偷跑流量，正巧用户此刻正在使用QQ浏览器。冤~~，某种情况下用户会下意识的把流量消耗归罪于自己常用的东东，特别是历史上有过劣迹（初始版本省流优化并不好），小白用户常有直观思维，包括手机卫士之类的软件其实也不太会用，你的产品对其印象不好，被其直观投诉，背黑锅，惨。。。。从塞班过来的用户亲爱UC，尽管QQ浏览器现在已经明显比UC省流，但用户习惯还是非常难扭转（浏览器成也无用户粘性，败也无用户粘性）。\n针对用户抱怨QQ浏览器的流量消耗问题，为了自证（流量消耗时不在场）加说明自己的特性，QQ浏览器在后续版本中特意突出明显化（通过图表而不是简单数字的形式）了流量消耗统计和节省的流量统计。让用户能更明白，其实你可以看出来对于误解，能采取的手段确实很有限。有更好的用户引导或特性宣传，是产品设计里非常重要的因素。\n精品年代的竞争\n当前已经是精品生存时代，用户见识广，口味挑，远不是几年前的用户寂寞苦楚，插扁担都开花的年代了。\n\n\n\n区分红海和蓝海，精确分析市场，天时地利人和\n\n\n营销费用很贵，最好出来就是精品，否则只能找个大树干爹\n\n\n偏要啃竞争对手市场，要高出对手很多才有可能，不断向用户传递，甚至找其他差异化的优势点，甚至还要祈求竞争对手犯错\n\n\n如果你实力雄厚，那可以找准切入点，稳扎稳打，求一小片份额，同时正确评估自己的影响力，别起步阶段就是做武林盟主的架势（这点来自QQ网购）\n\n\n大公司搞创业，人和很重要\n\n\n年轻创业者怎么办\n最好是选择一个还没有固定词汇或字眼能描述你想做的事情的方向\n\n想要在某个领域有所建树，最好选片真正的蓝海，没有词汇可以直接归纳。也没有专家知道该怎么形容。如果你发现自己很难向自己的父母解释自己在干什么。那这可能就是个好方向，失败的可能性很大，但潜在的收益也将很极为可观\n如10年前搞区块链，15年前搞播客\n最好别总想着再开发另一种搜索引擎，或开发另一款天气预报应用，红海里创业太难了\n\n小团队 or 大团队\n\n大公司难做出惊人颠覆，但安全性高\n小团队灵活速度快，易建立成员感情。坏处是工作都得亲手完成，任务没完没了。且公司体量越小，失败率越高\n\n\n需将自己所处的人生阶段结合起来看\n\n对于有孩子的双职工家庭来说，承担风险的难度更大。但如果你孑然一身还年轻，就简单多了。把自己能承担更高风险的优势发挥出来是更优策略，搏一搏，单车变摩托\n渡过难关的一种好办法就是眼光放长远，大家得愿意把回报周期放到十年的尺度上，不能指望两三年就原地起飞，大多数业务都需要十年时间\n\n一个人能在职场上取得成功的关键因素是什么？我们又该如何培养这些能力和品质？\n\n\n找一家重视学习的企业，所在的组织越擅长教学，员工们的能力就越强。换句话说，好公司一定是教学型的公司，而教学的对象就是你的员工\n\n通过同事间的讨论，结对工作，导师合作等，抓住机会为员工提供指导和教育，通过态度和能力完成筛选，帮其成为更好的工作者，更好的人\n\n\n聘用的是态度，培训的是技能\n\n假如你做消费品行业\n文艺复兴\n江山一代新人换旧人，当今的中国是一个什么中国，今天的消费者又是怎样一个消费者。做竞争，弄清形势也重要。老人不曾变，新人有千面。分析新消费群体很重要。\n天时地利人和，地利人和每个人每个公司的条件不一样，整合方法也不一样，但天时对每个人是公平的，不可能你开启一个天时。\n85后，90后一代人已慢慢成为消费市场的主力，他们代表一种中国新的文化意识，比以往的人更加理性，灵活，本土，这是一种更加本土意识的觉醒。（原因：见识更广，发展太快）\n举个例子，中国2012年出境人口超过8000w人次，海外消费超过1000亿美元，今天的中国人什么都见过了。当90一代的孩子进入市场时，将近7成的电影票房都给了国产电影，这也是一种民族特性定位的回归，今后你可以把它叫做中国的文艺复兴时代。见识多了，崇洋但不媚外。\n小时代\n未来的时代是一个小时代，做东西做品牌不可能做到所有人都喜欢。移动互联网让大家更便利的连接，但也分割成了小群体。人类重来没有如此被信息连接过，犹如大航海时代对世界的连接一样辉煌，但与大航海不同的是，人类重新的部落化，而不是在强大工业社会的趋势要求下必须开放拥成一体。\n供给过剩\n文艺复兴+小时代，今后的20年应该能搞出很多花样。但别忘了最重要的，供给过剩，精品自然是必须的，winner take all！\n后记-中心生活是啥\n消费群体变了，活在网上的人类，中心生活是啥\n\n心理实际特征：需要表达自我\n两大传播性主题：娱乐+自由\n娱乐在疯狂吸金，自由永有感染力\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["客户研究","时代"]},{"title":"红衣教主互方论","url":"/%E7%BA%A2%E8%A1%A3%E6%95%99%E4%B8%BB%E4%BA%92%E6%96%B9%E8%AE%BA.html","content":"\n体验的力量\n一切行业都是娱乐业。娱乐业最重用户体验，所有的行业都应向（最靠体验的）娱乐业看齐，销售用户体验。\n互联网常谈UE，但判断体验就一个简单的标准，超出预期的才叫用户体验；\n为什么着重提体验问题，因为当前已进入了信息更加透明，流动更快的互联网造就的新时代。商家原来的一套信息不对称的玩法被消解不少。消费者或者市场变了，商家很多却没有变。若技术人员想的是我要用怎样的技术去教育用户，技术怎样高，就非常危险，因为用户选择产品时，往往想的是，这个东西到底好不好用。大企业里有各种创新研究院，觉得非要搞出一个石破天惊的创新技术不可，多数就是落入了这种误区。\n例如微软vista操作系统，着力于创造出一种新语言和文件系统，界面，这导致研发周期很长，但并没有打动用户，相反，从win8开始，微软开始关注开机速度了，小儿科的技术，但对用户来看，却是一个很重要的问题。\n很多创业方面的创新是从改善用户的体验出发，新感觉，新冲击，打动用户的微创新，也会成为占领市场的巨大力量。消费者其实不理性的，都是感性的。他看到一个东西，脑子就用1秒钟不到，就会快速地给你的产品做一个分类，给它定位。\n立足微创新\n\n不要期望某一个版本带来革命，而是要靠很多小版本来实现革命。而且在这个时代，做产品一定要做减法，一定要找对一个点，做到极致。先不说你的资源有限，不够分，就是资源很多，做的产品没特色也不会有鲜明的卖点。思想都是和精益创业想通的。\n在计算机市场上，经常上演的是“次优者胜”，这有点像worse is better。且互联网产品是一个赢家通吃的市场，不成规模想守住一小块市场份额根本不可能。用户膨胀的过程是非常剧烈的，错过了机会，给予你的增长空间机会就没有了。回头看来，中国的触网人群增长真的是很快的，浪潮里多少商业模式发生变化，2005年中国网民是1亿，互联网普及率8%，到2013年，中国网民超6亿，手机网民比电脑网民还多。到2018年，微信都宣称月活账号有10亿，基本中国能上网的人都已经上网了，已经行进到C端市场的顶峰了。再往后，就是挖掘平均用户的时长或付费率了。\n对于创业者，都强调一点，不要满脑子想着做平台，而是要找一个大公司看不到的角落，给用户解决问题，平台是大公司玩儿的事情。颠覆要的是微观力，而不是平台力。\n创新的三种形式\n\n发明（新技术新材料出现越来越难）\n商业模式创新（贵的做成便宜的，收费做成免费的）\n体验上创新（复杂难用东西变简单，笨重变便携）\n\n商业上对市场格局的颠覆，多数都是商业或体验上的创新，而不是可口可乐的秘方或电灯轰动世界。\n颠覆式的创新都是小型创业公司做的事，因为正在做一些成熟企业认为不值得去做的事。**大型企业对一些虽然可能代表市场方向，却不符合其盈利模式或损害的项目上犹豫不决，进退维谷。**就是常说的“欲想成功，必先自宫”。\n微创新最容易犯的错误是不聚焦。衡量什么算微创新，其实有一个很简单的标准：用户会不会用最屌丝的语言在用户间流传。\n微创新还不够，还要思考活下去\n互联网产品，不管是客户端还是Web应用，要赢得用户，首先要找到典型用户群，提供好的用户体验。\n好的用户体验，就得找到能打动用户心扉的那一点，打动有一下子蒙对的，这是运气，有试错试出来的，这就变成了经验。有两点很关键，第一从小处着眼，贴近用户需求心理，第二要小步快跑，快速出击，不断试错。这是微创新的规律。\n强需求产品可以自我发展成强大的渠道，而弱需求产品独立做很难。腾讯的新闻门户靠的就是强大的弹窗渠道。有时弱需求的产品，并不是说不是好产品，而是对渠道的依赖比较大。\n推广模式也就是以怎样的方式接近目标用户群。\n\n在中国，永远不要相信酒香不怕巷子深\n要根据你的用户群和产品，去设计相应的推广方法。（不断应证的过程，也是不断打磨你的产品或发现真实用户群的过程，受益不是一般资源型推广可比）\n\n在传统行业转战互联网时，一定要形成用户这个概念，原来字典里只有客户的概念（客户是上帝），因为客户给企业钱，是衣食父母。当然 钱还是要赚，但要想想谁是你的用户，用户的定义就是你能长期提供一种服务，能长期让他感知到你的存在，保持联系的人，你只有在互联网上积累了足够多的用户，才有能力把其中一些用户转成客户。\n微信对运营商的最可怕之处，是将用户与运营商隔离开了，致使他们根本难以像之前接触客户，开发产品，成为了纯粹的流量商。\n互联网的盈利模式\n\n卖东西（电子商务，互金），卖服务（O2O），利用平台做传统生意，网聚人的力量\n广告，足够多的眼球，自己不能赚钱，就推荐一些其它，就跟免费看电视一定有广告一个道理\n以网游为代表的增值服务\n\n基于免费，还需要好产品，且提供一流的用户体验。\n组织能力\n以用户为中心的企业文化是没法靠奖惩制度建立的，而是靠员工对产品发自心底的热爱，对用户的热爱。作为老板，不仅要以身作则，更要言传身教。但当公司大了，原来好的企业文化会受到稀释，这是一个矛盾，但你要接受，相当于你的员工平均素质水准更大几率是随着公司增长往下走的。\n管理及流程的原本目标，是为了将以往的成功经验/实践变成可复制，保证持续成功。但应对的问题和市场是不断变化的，所以后来人经常不满意公司的现有流程或不理解，这有点像钱穆的书《中国历代政治得失》里讲的问题一样。\n用普通人你就需要一个管理流程，把某些东西模式化流程化。但这种管理一定会带来一个平庸的公司，这就是管理上的一个悖论，要保证不断产生优秀的产品，至少要像开经济特区一样，特殊区域放弃流程，聚集一帮很特别的人才。\n整个部分，老周都是在借乔布斯的某篇电视访谈在谈感想，这个访谈我也看过，没像他点评这么多，但是的确那篇访谈触及到了很多本质的企业管理和创造的问题，乔布斯也是直言不讳，值得经常回顾，前面的博文里自己也写过（本文的斜体都是自己敲写的文字）\n周自评的优秀能力\n有一种善于学习的能力，叫会问问题。特别在不懂的领域会问的话，就可以快速获得别人积累的知识经验。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"线粒体夏娃","url":"/%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%A4%8F%E5%A8%83.html","content":"\n在读《人类基因的历史地图》时接触的概念，书上语焉不详，埋下了一颗疑问的种子\n线粒体夏娃\n背景介绍\n线粒体是一种无核的细胞组织，是被人类单细胞祖先吞噬的古老细菌，最初它只是细胞内的害生虫，后来进化成了细胞的“呼吸器官”，为细胞活动提供能量。\n1963 年时，又发现线粒体中也有 DNA。线粒体 DNA 的遗传方式十分独特。\n在脊椎动物精子的生成过程中，绝大多数的线粒体都被去除了，只保留极少数的线粒体提供精子运动的能量。接着，在受精时，精子中的线粒体 DNA 不会进入受精卵，即使个别闯入了，也会很快分解。下一代的细胞核基因，一半来自精子，一半来自卵子，但线粒体基因则全部来自卵子。也就是说，线粒体基因只属于母系遗传。如果一位母亲没有生下女儿，那么她的线粒体基因就失传了。\n数学要说话\n\n知乎问答那么多，看了一堆，会简单讲清楚事情的人也是少比例，摘录如下\n\n线粒体夏娃是个逻辑假说\n\n每个人只有一个亲妈\n所有活人向上追溯一代，只取女性，那么人数必然减少或者不变，而不可能增加\n\n把这些女性再向上取一代，不停重复以上过程，只要上溯次数足够多，这个数量总能变成1。变成1之后，永远不可能变成0，因为所有人都有妈。\n成为线粒体夏娃的女性，最少要有两个女儿，否则就是她的女儿被授封该称号了。\n计算机模拟\n\n根据概率论的模型估计，其实用不了多少代，就会追溯到这个线粒体夏娃。\n举例某一种群有100位女性，有不同的线粒体基因，且种群稳定（每一代都是100位女性），按这个模型估计，则2N代后，平均也就是200代后，最初的100个不同的线粒体中的只有一个会扩散到全种群中，其他的99个都丢失了。\n通过计算机程序进行模拟500次，达成99个都消失的代际分布如下。集中于100~200代的区间最多，平均下来认为是200代。\n\n偶然的奇妙\n看上去不可思议，只是完全出于偶然。但从上帝视角来看，只要经过的时间足够长，从数学上来说，这是逻辑必然。\n只需要短短一千年，任何一个祖先绝大多数的基因差不多就会被降为零。但线粒体的特性但是现代人类，几乎完整地继承了“线粒体夏娃”的线粒体，并且我们的女性将会继续无限期地传递这位夏娃的线粒体\n此项研究成果作用\n线粒体基因特征背景\n\n线粒体 DNA 一般很难发生改变，平均要过 2 万年线粒体 DNA 才会发生微小的变异\n\n彻底终结了多地起源说\n\n多地起源说：这种学说认为，直立人自从在180万年前走出非洲之后，就在世界的各个地方不断繁衍，分别演化为现代人的不同族群，比如欧洲人就是尼安德特人的后代，中国人就是蓝田人、北京人的后代。但化石证据早就不支持这些观点，科学家们又找智人源流说，分子生物学的最终结论就是把多地起源说彻底扫进历史的垃圾堆里了。\n\n通过追溯成千上万年积累下来的细微突变，我们可以找出哪些人种是密切相关的，最终将线粒体夏娃的存在时间锁定为历史中的某一时间段。目前得出的结论是大约在 14万年前。这几乎排除了多地区起源说存在的可能性，否则线粒体夏娃应该存在于几百万年前。多地区起源说中所有其余地区发现的古化石追溯的人类，都已经灭绝。\n非洲起源\n全人类的线粒体 DNA 基本相同，差异很少，平均差异率仅为 0.32%，确认发展谱系后，现代人类线粒体分为两大类，第一类仅见于一些非洲人中，第二类则分布于包括其他非洲人在内的所有种族中，且第二类的最终源头也在非洲人中。线粒体夏娃是一位非洲女性。\n扩展说明\n她不是唯一\n线粒体夏娃的时代，当然不是只有她一位女性（也许是成千上万），当时种群中其他女性线粒体没有流传至今，但其余她们的核染色体依然传承到了现在人群中。\nY染色体亚当\n同样的逻辑，Y染色体亚当也是存在的。但他俩未必在一个年代，现在的结论初步估计他在六至九万年前。\n露西是线粒体夏娃吗\n\n“露西”是人类学家唐纳德·约翰森于1974年发现的南方古猿化石，化石的出土地点位于埃塞俄比亚的阿瓦什山谷（Awash Valley）。由于发现她时，营地里播放着披头士的《Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds》，化石因此得名“露西（Lucy）”–距今320万年\nSo 结论是 NO！\n\n各自所处时代的“女主角”，年代相差数百万年。\n露西其实已经不是最早的南方古猿化石，还不是最早的人属成员。最早发现的的南方古猿化石为“汤恩小孩”，目前已知最完整的南方古猿化石为“小脚”，最早的人属成员还存争议，南方古猿阿法种（露西所属）和南方古猿湖畔种都是有力的竞争者。\n南方古猿只是智人的远亲，属于灭绝的一种。称为早期人类还行，人类非洲老祖母（夏娃）称号不适合露西。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"组织能力的杨三角","url":"/%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%A8%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92.html","content":"\n看之前\n搞企业的人，想必都对执行力这个词很熟，但是空谈执行力概念是不行的。执行是人的问题，群体可以对等于组织的概念，一个公司的执行力，其实也可以说是组织能力打造的问题。组织能力建设的方向，就是一个公司想要打造的能力方向，也决定了你的公司是什么气质，决定了你老板想要的能否得到。\n不谈组织行为学，接触到组织能力的杨三角概念，这里确实是一个足够简单的抽象。说到底，组织能力，就是一个员工想不想，能不能，组织允不允许（员工治理方式）的三因素构成。那么只要上点规模的企业老板，就要在这几个方面找资源想对策。\n在组织能力打造上，一个企业要长期发展，必须依赖自己的培养体系，以及自己的培养体系培养出来的人才。说的都是简单易懂的大实话，像书中作序所讲，杨教授深谙华人思维，再高明的理论架构，再切题的解决方案，若无简单明白的实施办法，方便好用的执行工具，华人企业是难以付诸实施的。\n看到这个序总结，甚感这会是一本接地气的书。国人的思维习惯，语言体系，民族性格，中意的是“简单深刻”，而非照搬国外的首字母拼凑总结，解析理论的复杂图表。这也是为什么伟人，任正非流派，在企业界获得崇拜和有效的缘由。华人的艺术造诣诚然不足，但是词汇联想和理解能力是远超出欧美的，简单才能传播塑造，深刻执行才有力量。华人有短视贪利不守规矩的一面，在这方面更是要赏罚分明，知人善任，这突然让我想起求学时期时碰到的一个国企老总的讲座汇报，一人之力改善小国企的种种弊病，就靠赏罚分明，赏更要积极，用人也是赏。\n看书\n看了书的目录，主体如下\n\n定义组织能力\n打造企业需要的员工能力[人才抢夺，淘汰，培养机制]\n塑造员工思维模式（洗脑想不想）\n组织架构选择和改善（这个其实并不是允不允许的问题，允不允许是贯穿在2,3,4三项的）\n\n成功=战略*组织能力，战略体现了老板的最高能力（判断&amp;坚持），组织能力是战略执行落地的保证。战略是方向，当然异常重要，战略是修养是艺术，不在书本上。\n另外一点，战略是易于模仿的，但是组织能力却难以在短期内模仿，从这个角度，也可以将组织能力拔高一个层面。甚至你的历史投入资产都是你的组织能力，比如你实验室的多少，更别说团队&amp;文化了。\n组织结构\n对于我们这种没有经历过组织结构设计的人，看到什么组织结构都新奇，有搞产品事业部制的，有搞国家地区制的，也有搞职能分工的，也有搞矩阵式（同时多向汇报的）。但是不同的组织架构都有它各自的设计背景，与历史上该公司面临的机会情况和取得的成绩相关。显然没有万能的，因地制宜，因时制宜，考虑你公司的规模，协调管理的复杂度和外部面临的机遇和不确定性。回到头来还是创始人的对自己企业的认识或者愿不愿意放权。唯一确定的是，改变组织架构是一项复杂的工程，牵扯权力，资源的重分配，必然会遇到各种阻力和矛盾冲突。这需要强有力的顶层干部来干。\n组织边界\n水平边界与垂直边界，不同，一般没有全面大动干戈改动水平边界的。水平边界的改善都是针对某一个特定流程做优化，或为了关键资源或商机做协调共享。升级到一个公司的理念，以客户导向来包装，将水平组织打造成利益共同体的概念。想搞好水平边界的优化，激励策略和员工的流动能力培养我觉得是重中之重。权责和信息比较虚，并不能真实调用人的力量。\n营商变化\n今日的经营环境强调快速，灵活，创新，且要善于整合全球资源。所以老派的强调控制、分工、规模、专业的传统企业，被互联网嘴皮子穷追猛打。趋势显现时并不是排山倒海时，但你却不未雨绸缪。君不见还是有很多老派的企业家在尝试转型，尝试管理转型。\n老的做法有 决策慢，成本高，客户满意度低，因层层流程所限，员工工作被动，缺乏参与感等弊端，这都是新时代的痛点，但若能规避和迎合，痛点就意味着转化出新杀招，也决定了你是否真能基业长青。组织能力说到底是人的问题，很多企业嘴上讲以人为本，但并没有落到实处。\n产业链微笑曲线\n零组件（技术，制造，规模）–组合—分销（品牌，营销能力，运筹能力），是产业链的一个微笑曲线，国人在高附加值或高技术的两端做得并不好，值得努力。\n标杆\n在组织能力建设上，最强的应该还不算科技企业，而是有大量雇工规模的但又有良好管理的企业。这里丰田在若干年里一直是业界推崇的标杆，甚至有化腐朽为神奇的力量，被其收购的企业在付诸其管理后都脱胎换骨。精益生产是丰田的一个企业精髓，但并未体现丰田员工管理的精髓。从员工治理中，丰田充分与员工共享4方面的关键资源（缺一不可）：\n1. 权责共享（管理层级扁平化，自我管理团队和工种的简化给予前线员工更大的权责，甚至每一位员工都有权力停下整个公司的生产线）\n2. 信息共享（看板，每日小组组长会议，每两周全员大会及时共享有用的信息）\n3. 能力共享（招聘中的严格甄选和定岗，入职后的持续培训，确保员工能力的提升）\n4. 激励共享（平等底薪，设立小组和工厂奖金，奖励出勤，给予提案奖金鼓励员工全身心投入生产）\n如上其实体现出，当员工表现不尽如人意时，主管要反思，是员工问题还是主管问题，改变治理方式是否有用，丰田真是一个好标杆。垂直边界改造看丰田的例子，就够了，其实说白了，核心是高级主管把员工当做公司获得竞争优势的源泉。\n结语\n组织能力是你战略落地的内力，练好，责无旁贷。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["团队"]},{"title":"经济与债务","url":"/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1.html","content":"如何看待经济\n这点上可以借鉴桥水(Bridgewater)基金创始人瑞达利欧的视频–经济机器是如何运行的\n\n关键词：信贷，交易，人性。这三个元素相互作用使得经济具有了周期性。\n当现代信用经济没出现之前，经济并未表现出那么明显的周期性。在生产率不变的情况下，供给侧因素劳动力起了巨大的作用。现代经济要复杂的多了，波动也更加剧烈。\n\n\n支出是经济的驱动力\n一个人的支出是另一个人的收入\n生产率长期最关键（生产率能上升，也跟我们的知识随着时间会增多有关系），但短期信贷最关键，生产率短期不会剧烈波动。\n\n用很笨拙（本质）的一条公式来解释：\n$$\n\\frac{支出总额「现金+信贷(未来的现金)」}{产销总量「商品+服务+金融产品」}=价格\n$$\n\n什么是债务？什么是货币？其实就是一种信用，你要生产更多东西你肯定信用就要扩张。\n\n金本位时代结束后，经济增长是靠信贷扩张维系的。经济增长的契约是就是债务和债权，人类显性的奴隶制社会已经结束，但隐形的债务奴隶制却存在，一个人的债务是另一个人的资产，人类通过创造债务购买他人的未来。经济的周期也可以看做是债务的周期。\n周期\n在现今的社会，为拉动消费（经济的驱动力），人们的可支出总额，是包含现金+信贷（未来的现金）两部分。\n在借债时消费多过产出，在还债时消费就低于产出。这是周期的基本原因，长期周期除去债务，还跟供给侧和财富分配双重作用的不可割裂（这点达利欧是没提的）。干预债务是有很多手段的。\n\n\n上图就是其他因素均不变（如供给侧劳动力）经济周期受 生产率、短期债务周期、长期债务周期三要素作用的形象表现。短期债务周期通常5～8年的周期，所以小周期内表现出小波浪的波动。长信贷周期通常在75～100年。\n\n短期债务周期主要由央行控制（一系列的利率政策等干预信贷双方意愿，控制过热与紧缩），每个周期的低谷和高峰后，经济增长和债务都高过前一个周期，因为人性使然，爱借不易还（由奢入俭难）。\n长期内债务增加的速度超过收入，从而形成长期债务周期，而大家形式一片大好里呆习惯了，看不见泡沫，债务人因为负担过重不想再借更多债务，支出（消费）重挫，连带经济剧烈下挫（休克）来释放/消灭问题。\n\n\n解决债务的方案（去杠杆化）\n债务不会消失，是刚性的，只会转移，资产却可能清零。是债就得还，要么就用未来的收入还，要不就是等财产升值后（通膨也是一种升值手段），下面列出四种化债手段。\n\n\n削减支出（紧缩）\n\n\n通过债务违约和重组来减少债务（萧条）\n\n例如破产，违约会使很多各链条深信的财富化为泡影，太恐怖，将带来更多的传导，引致萧条（挤兑）。很多贷款人不希望自己的债务消失，同意债务重组，法拍也是一种。\n债务重组意味着贷款人的还款减少或延长还款期限，降低利率。\n\n\n\n财务再分配，将财富从富人转给穷人\n\n政府必须加税或举债来对冲赤字（稳定市场和民生的支出），向富人融资。\n为了使债务负担下降和经济活动恢复正常，通常需要十年时间，常有失去的十年一说，为啥要十年，得新一批韭菜长起来吧，老韭菜没人愿意吃。\n\n\n\n发行更多货币【膨胀，上面三种都是紧缩】\n\n理论上央行发行货币，只能购买金融资产，推升资产价格，提高人们信用，仅有助于那些拥有金融资产的人。中央政府可以购买商品和服务，向人民送钱，但无法印钞票。为了刺激经济，央行和政府通常合作。央行购买政府债券，其实是把钱借给政府，来运行赤字预算，通过失业救济金和刺激计划来增加购买商品和服务的支出，增加了人民的收入，也增加了政府的债务，但可以降低经济中的总债务负担（或者债务转移）。\n\n\n\n决策中在四种手段种进行平衡，平衡通货膨胀的办法和通货紧缩的办法，适当的平衡就可以带来和谐的去杠杆化。发行货币是否会造成通货膨胀，如果货币抵消信贷的降幅，就不会引发通货膨胀。不要忘了，重要的是支出，每一块钱的支出，不管是信用还是货币，对价格的影响是一样的。\n信用货币小例子\n直觉上世界上所有钱换所有市场上的商品与劳务，假如全世界每个人只有1美元，所有人手上1美元加起来，就是所有商品与劳务的交换计价。哪怕所有人加起来只有1美元，那么1美元就能买下所有。当地球上只有1碗饭吃的时候，这一碗饭等于所有人手里钱的总和。但实际上，货币其实本质无法替代实际财富（房子车子能源食物），它只是信用的凭证，信用的履行与否依然取决于人，假如某个传家宝打死不卖，货币在这个传家宝面前就失效了。\n来个简单的例子，一个星球上只有2人，A有水，B有饭。本来大家相互分享能解决问题，但有水的A使了个心眼，拿出一块货币，对有饭的B说，我拿一块钱买你一半的饭吃，你也可以拿它买我一半水喝，B同意了，然后当B拿这一块钱买水时，A没有遵守信用，不卖躲起来了，那么有饭的B拿着钱渴死了，我们可以说，渴死的B遭遇了经济萧条，手里的一块钱不值钱了，价值蒸发或遇到货币体系信用崩塌。\n深化一下这个模型，有水喝的A印了1亿钞票，然后拿它去买B1/10的饭吃，但一亿张太多了，放手上不方便交易，于是A说，一亿张钞票在我的保险柜里，你可以随时去取，我开个条给你做代表，B同意了，B开心的得到一张纸条和卖出1/10的粮食。反过来拿纸条去买水时，A说我水比较珍贵，你只能买我1/20，不然就不卖，B毕竟要喝水，只好同意，准备交易时，A又说这么卖显得我欺负你，为了公平，你可以不用花这张纸条的全部，可从我保险库里贷4000w，因为是贷款，每天要还我100w，同意的话我就4000w卖给你1/20水，B觉得好像不亏（5000w买1/20就容易反应过来被欺负了，毕竟还有利息），就同意了。\n这样B账户少了4000w，买到1/20水（钱仍在A库里），每天扣100w给A。只要这种账面贷款反复多次，A保险库里一亿钞票没动，账面上还会多出些钱来（利息）。在这种不对等情况下，A可以拿越来越少的水卖给B，B手上的粮食将变得不够他还债，最终变成A施舍粮食和水给B，B背负债过日子。\n货币蒸发\n当反转过来，B问A，买你这些水到底要多少钱，A说100亿，你买不起，于是B自己开个白条给A，说我这张白条，代表你对我的长期投资，价值1千亿，哪天我把欠你的债还清了，还挣钱了，就还1千亿给你。说完就把A的水拿来喝，A怕打不过没敢抢。于是乙也用这种白条游戏违了一次约。A发现名义上自己应得到的1千亿永远不会出现，但账面上他有。此时来了一个外星人C，A对其说我有1千亿，我开个条给你，买你身上的食物和水，你拿这个白条去找B给钱，这些钱能买10倍于我刚才买的食物和水。C评估了，发现AB信用等级不行，且他俩间是坏账，说出了实话：得了吧A，你已经破产了，你的1000亿蒸发了，我不会卖东西给你的，A于是一夜间遭遇大萧条，没有了一滴水还凭空蒸发1000亿。\n现实中的银行就是这样，放贷的钱并不等于存在金库中的存款总额，都是账面数据在增减，A开的白条除去本金，多出的利息甚至在上面故事的星球上都不存在，A保险库里只放着他自己印的一亿张钞票，B开的白条即各种股票债券期权，这种东西本质上代表不了银行里的那点钱了，属于高阶白条，是金融手段衍生出的杠杆。AB游戏本质与我们地球上的金融游戏并无二质。经济萧条时，手上有钱的人货币不值钱了，遭遇信用崩塌（当前产能过剩对于极端风险有平抑效应），说白了货币没有那么多价值实物对应。信用货币中本就受诸多杠杆加持，一旦产生信用违约，原该拥有的（钱）就会消失不见（有个逐步传导的过程），穿透看其反正本来就不存在。\n海通证券对上述模型的应用解读\n债务周期：从举债过度到去杠杆减税\n2010年成为了中国经济的一个很大的数据指标分水岭，人口红利开始下降，城市化推进速度开始变慢。从10年左右开始进入明显的举债发展模式，08-09年开始 4万亿企业举债，12-13年地方融资举债，15-17年居民举债买房。企业，政府，居民轮番加杠杆，使经济保持了中高速发展。\n因借钱不可持续，借钱是要还的，还钱的时候大家就很不开心，经过近10年的举债，我们的历史总债务率在16年达到了顶峰，所有经济主体，总债务水平已经达到GDP的250%，接近次贷危机前的水平，意味着我们达到了长期债务周期的顶峰，不得不考虑换一种方式来发展。\n\n我们过去几年主要政策是两件事：\n\n去杠杆\n补短板\n\n中国提出的供给侧结构性改革，其实就是在实践达里奥提出的完美去杠杆。\n郭树清的一些经典比喻\n\n对于过快的货币供应扩张（信用扩张-加杠杆）\n\n经常爬山的人都知道，越是陡峭的山峰，上去不易，下来更难\n\n财政扩张靠货币注入–美国联邦债务与GDP之比已超过二战时期创造的最高纪录\n\n像一架飞机在空中进入自转旋涡，很难由自己顺利改非出来\n郭的画像\n郭有担当懂实际，反感极速信用扩张。曾有他个人访谈，这位央地两端均有丰富从政经验的高官称，少数人正在违规构建庞大的金融集团，也却有其事，其主导的金融改革也是切中要害，在证监会履职的500多天，猜测也是因为触动太多人利益，导致调任山东省长，但不影响其强人本色，在地方履职仍然干的相当出色。\n\n行长易纲是CEO管业务，专业素养是其特长，主担对外角色.\n郭树清党委书记当董事长，按例管人事和组织培训，郭既有学术素养兼具地方政府工作经验，运筹帷幄果敢高效，是整合银保协同央行的跨界帅才。\n\n原来：影子银行货币放大\n大家找央行是借不到钱的，央行只把钱（基础货币）借给金融机构，实体经济部门接触不到。历史所有金融危机背后，都有商业银行的身影，如次贷危机，日本泡沫，欧债危机等，都是商业银行放贷过度，但商业银行的过度放贷是一种天性，因为银行本身是一个高杠杆的生意，自有本金（自有利润资金）1块钱，但可以放10块钱的贷款（客户的存款），天生就想扩张。\n\n用巨大的资产规模来賺钱的，因为他只賺 息差率-坏账率，不会吃饱了没事增加自有资金\n\n无数次危机后，大家发现必须把商业银行过度放贷行为管起来，因此共同发明了巴塞尔协议，核心要义就是，有多少本金才能放多少贷款。\n\n09年银行贷款增速30%，风险很高，当时还没加入巴塞尔协议，无知无畏。12年正式实施了巴塞尔协议。\n\n实施了巴塞尔协议，但金融机构很聪明，无数的非银行金融机构帮银行想办法。如果银行把贷款放给非银金融机构，非银金融机构再把贷款借给地产企业，在银行的报表中就把一笔房地产贷款成功便成银行对金融机构的贷款，按照中国的金融监管，银行对金融机构的贷款基本不用占银行的本金（应该是金融机构坏账率低过实体企业，占用率低，不像普通放贷一块占一块本金这种换算程度），这样就可以无限制发放贷款。2013年后的影子银行逃避监管，爆炸式的创新发展。\n\n可以看到信贷在M2中的比重17年远高于11和07年，17年影子银行做承担的比重在信贷的占比也远远高过11年。\n去杠杆\n债务周期run下去要靠把收入搞起来，就像真正的资产并不是房子，是打工人持续还债的现金流。当现金流不稳定了，债务就丧失了扩张的动力，旧债的价值也开始变得不可信任。\n债务扩张的过程一定伴随收入增速的下降，债务流向了打工人，财富流向了富人，贫富分化拉大到一定程度，必然带来萧条。债务挤压支出，一个人的支出又是另一个人的收入，就陷入了衰退螺旋。\n\n在金融资本无需扩张和实业资本两大利益集团的争斗下，我们选择了不等崩溃，主动刺破泡沫的去杠杆之路。养膘的过程就像加杠杆，欢快而有效，而去杠杆等同于减肥，缓慢而痛苦，有人要饿肚子，自然要嚎叫\n\n压缩货币再创造–紧缩\n直接大喇叭喊紧缩是痛苦的，也没人愿意听，能干的是间接反向传播–压缩货币再创造\n从17年开始，颁布资产新规，决心去杠杆。资产新规核心手段叫做穿透式监管原则，也就是哪怕银行找了各种通道，通过影子银行来发放贷款，但是银行必须如实披露所有的通道，按照底层资产如实占用相应的资本，这其实是彻底从源头关闭了影子银行，对银行来说，做影子银行不仅要占用资本金，还要支付通道费，完全得不偿失。\n资管新规上来了，按郭树清21年6月的发言，较历史峰值压缩了20万亿。中国的货币供应增速出现了非常明显的下降，过去10年M2平均增速接近15%，近来只有8%左右，相当于下降了接近一半。\n\n货币增速的下降对经济而言有两个好处：一是降低通胀预期；另一个好处是房价泡沫得到抑制。\n地产是信用货币创造机\n过去十几年，地产上涨堪称是一股不可回撤的趋势，啥叫不可回撤，就是所有的参与者都不想回撤。开发商不想回撤，这玩意80%杠杆空手套白狼，不要太简单粗暴，看准行情首富宝座轮流坐坐简直不要太爽；地方政府不想回撤，这东西断了哪来钱道，怎么干事；银行不想回撤，风险谁担？为国接盘嘛；散户不想回撤，稳定基石，舆论浪尖。回撤的关键点在于风险谁担，真的是谁来为国接盘的问题。新门路还在孕化的阶段下，太难受的地方政府怎么办，因城施策呀，太缺钱就吃点药，把双限的大门（限购限贷）打开一点。跟上这股大庄的人，相当于成为了牛市里的高手，可高手发挥的地方，也只能在牛市。横盘时干啥，最好研究观察具体生活层面不可回撤的趋势（大趋势船大不好调头，能给你充足的时间思考，建立信息对称度）。\n\n趋势观察：\n\n\n大组织会不会用它？\n\n\n中产基本面大不大，是否会变大?\n\n\n富人聚没聚堆出没出手，是否会出手?\n\n\n准备钱\n\n\n如果上面几条都没有，就喝茶遛狗钓鱼。这就是观局，何为入局，逃局？富人有没有扎堆出手决定是否入局，中产能否变大决定逃局（毕竟中产换名字就是最大的接盘侠）。\n\n地产并不是货币蓄水池，而是一台不断以信用为原料去生产货币的印钞机，一台将未来的货币抽到现在来用的抽水泵。这些从未来抽到现在的货币，如果不经历一场大规模的债务违约，去消灭他们产出的货币的话，那么这些货币都需要实际产出来偿还的。存量问题才是真正的大问题，增量问题之所以被重视，是因为它是作为存量问题的导火索存在的。相比于存量问题，实际上增量问题不值一提，现在是到了连增量都解决不了的地步。\n过去从现在和未来抽走了太多的货币，或者说产出，目光所及的未来被抽空了这才是危机的本质。一味想着当下的日子好过点，等到了刀尖上跳舞（很多政策在棚改货币化去库存时配套一起出，还比较有效，现在容易成压死骆驼的稻草）还说简单能解决的，免不了太看不起经济规律了。\n货币总量是动态的，生生灭灭时刻发生。信用的消失对应于货币的消失，货币消灭需要一个过程，且信用和货币并不存在一一对应关系。房地产蓄水降通胀是错的，恰恰相反，其作用是杠杆是发动机，撬动信贷和投资，消费者寅吃卯粮的行为，链条中的参与者完成了财富的转移。钱从千万购房者手中，转移到了政府和房开公司手中，再向下传导，造就了经济繁荣和数量庞大的富翁。\n经济繁荣的局面是微通胀的，客观上居民收入也是涨的，只不过涨不过房子和其它一些东西，这涉及小动物的养成分配问题，全球农场都一样，接受就好（只要有银行在放贷或有人不劳动就有收入，一定是有分配漏洞，压榨一部分人或行业供给另一部分行业或人）。\n\n财富分配有不合理的点，效率优先就必须要给特权。提高服务业占比也是为了推高底层人民收入\n\n针对地产业的新常态，这几年困难时期会阴跌,等待他们的是负债率降下去，跨界收缩，针对性结构性开发，进入到更为理性的时代。\n\n阴跌等同于达成高层设定的高位横盘，既不刺破，也不放任，让市场慢慢消化，避免走日本的路。\n\n现在缓解债务违约，只能是既得利益者银行让渡利润，或者打资产包让居民为国接盘（开新税通道费补贴银行？）。地产的巨大获利盘，必须锁死在地产上，让这张支票永远无法兑现（谁能提供这么多剩余价值给他们兑现收益呢），靠通胀消化泡沫，这就是房地产软着陆的既定走势。打砸与跌幅成正比，那就冻住，不跌。大家就都没话说了，市值摆在那，虽然不能流通不叫钱，但看起来好看。散户特点就是啃着馒头过日子比市值，勤俭节约会攒钱，这就是文化传统。（钱在骨子里就不是拿来花的，是拿来攒的）\n减税支撑消费和盈利-财富分配\n18年下调增值税税率1%，上调个税起征点，当年减税降费超万亿\n19年下调3%增值税率，个税5项抵扣，减税降费达到2万亿。\n税收增幅变成负的，正常情况下，税收增长应=GDP名义增速。\n中国居民收入不高，所以边际消费倾向很高，增加的收入基本都会花掉。19年人均国民收入达到1万美元，大家纷纷吐槽拖后腿，其实收入包含居民，政府和企业的总收入（GDP），除人口就高了，而单独居民人均收入只有4000多美元，折算成人均月收入只有2000多元人民币。因为人均收入普遍低，故平均边际消费倾向高达70%。也即是1万亿的减税可以增加7000亿的居民消费，真金白银减了后，19年效果的确不错。\n\n基于19年的数据，消费对经济的拉动效应已经到了60%，相对比投资则只有20%。故过去货币和地产增速走势重要，因投资决定了经济走势，而货币和房地产是最重要的指标。现在消费决定了经济走势，未来即便投资增速继续下滑，只要消费增速保持在8%以上，加权后中国内需经济增速仍在6%，依然是不错的增长速度。\n减税降费也让企业改善了盈利，在经济增速下降，贸易摩擦的背景下，净利润增速数据亮眼。\n总结来说，减税降费一方面支撑了消费增速，托底了经济增长，另一方面也改善了企业盈利。唯一难受的就是以往爽爽的政府部门，过紧缩的日子。\n债务违约-财富分配\n包商银行被接管及各种债务违约，各方达成新一轮妥协（如延长还款期，重新约定利息），也是财富分配或调整债务周期的一种手段，总有方要承担这些财富消失的问题。\n2022上半年信用债新增违约主体集中于民企和房企，上半年93只债券违约，金额共计601亿。举例武汉当代系多家上市子公司股权质押比例均超70%，22年来数次被强制平仓，流动性紧张凸显。融资方面，当代集团通过借款，发债，信托及股权质押等多种方式对外融资，但资金成本高昂，全年财务成本高达20亿。\n债务违约就像一个导火索，如果这个危机难以缓解，那么向它借债的租赁金融公司，银行，信托等，也将受到牵连。\n资产价格下跌时债务问题产生的根源，另一个方面是流动性风险。所有行业中，资产负债对比，杠杆率最高的是金融业，其次就是房地产。2021年银行业上市公司资产负债率是92%（高正常，吸收的存款对银行来说就是负债），非银金融85%，房地产行业上市公司资产负债率接近80%，接近于银行业杠杆率，从资产负债表来看，类似于金融公司，较少的资本，撬动杠杆来开发房地产。挤兑银行会导致银行破产倒闭，房地产公司融资困难，也会导致房地产公司破产。\n因为居民不能像企业那样破产，无限责任。从经济角度看，保交付的成本是比较低的，也可以做到。假设未交房住宅销售价值40万亿，按40%建安成本比（实际可能更低），完成建设需要16万亿，若按10%违约停建比测算，需要1.6万亿资金，实际情况可能更好，完成交付并不需要这么多资金。\n因为居民部门不能破产，房贷资产对于银行来说是非常优质的资产，而企业部门是可以破产的，这才是需要重点解决的问题。理论上，房地产企业负债80%，整个行业来看，房开公司应可以抗住20%的资产价格下跌，但现实情况可能更危险，尤其是中小城市房地产价格。大量房企或从市场破产出清，陆续被收购一些好的项目。破产房开公司的融资使得金融机构受损。问题房企资产处置后，优先偿还工资和保交付，其实才是偿还金融机构借款，再有资金剩余，才是偿还经营负债（这些上游供应商风险是照顾不上了，坑惨了）\n近10年的债务危机问题\n2012年钢企破产，15年过剩产能危机（设备制造），开始出台棚改货币化，18年民企违约潮（基建链和地产），20年底地方国企和房企债务违约。近年来债务出清周期明显拉长，信用修复时长在2015年还可以控制在1年左右，现在都奔2年以上而去。\n\n在这些过往问题中，经常看到降企业杠杆，转到居民部门头上的影子\n\n如果你在行业景气期背负了太多负债，就很痛苦。非景气期之前的效率优先带来的社会问题会集中爆发。中国在新能源和芯片领域还是有突破，于重度老龄化之前来到世界第一还是有希望。\n稳杠杆与转移杠杆\n过去我们债务增速远超经济增速，导致全社会债务率持续上升，就是在加杠杆。但如果未来债务增速降到经济增速下，有可能降低全社会债务率水平，实现去杠杆。普通手段肯定不行，肯定是产业升级，减其它国家的羊毛（全球的劳动生产率如果没有大提升的背景的话–这点还是要靠教育靠知识，理想情况下这都是一个慢斜率的长线事件）。\n常规发展降杠杆一定导致经济衰退，从经济整体而言，钱太多和太少都有问题。政府喊 货币和融资增速要和经济增速相匹配，也其实就是稳杠杆，债务水平稳定。这个大背景下，各个部门的债务是有升有降的，有的部门要去杠杆，有能力的部门加杠杆，这其实就是转移杠杆。\n以美国为例，次贷危机原因是居民举债过度，居民债务/GDP接近100%，而08年以后，政府部门大幅举债减税，政府部门债务率大幅上升，帮居民部门降低了债务率，经济整体债务率不变，使得经济重新恢复了活力，其实也就是债务重组+债务展期，也因为他是世界老大，美元地位才能无甚阻力地干成这个事。\n政府举债的理论支撑\n中国中央+地方的政府债务，预计为GDP 60%，比美欧100%，日本的200%有空间。美是印钱，欧和日本是老本厚余粮多，民众对国家认可度高，福利高且不断提升，民众才愿意掏钱。你学不了美国，欧日你也不好学，小心富人跑路，穷人本身就举债，哪有钱借给你。\n\n这里面还存在一个难题，大家都知道政府的资金运用效率是差过市场主体的，让政府举债一定是个垃圾招。但在政府比较有钱的时候，容易搞出来一些核心复杂技术（军转民），其它领域这都是舍本逐末的垃圾招。\n\n纯说下债务理论：\n从债务关系角度，将国内经济分为政府部门和私人部门。政府部门举债时，政府新增一笔债务，私人部门新增一笔资产。各主体努力工作扩大产能形成财富，财富同样需要地方储存，不放在房子上则可以放在国债上。毕竟国债代表对国家未来财富所有权，增加国债可满足未来大家财富配置需要，可以撑一段时间。这还有赖于你国家货币部门（比较于其它国家）不耍流氓，不要被政府债务协同绑架，搞货币发行通货膨胀来冲销政府债务，让投资人承担蒙难。\n例如地方政府可以发债做实体企业里的债务置换，国企混合所有制改革，也可以用 债转股 的形式来做。国企效率低，有资金的错配，能力的错配，负债率又高，负债成了羁绊国企发展的重要障碍。上一轮国企改革/下岗，银行债务转移，才有企业21世纪初的大发展，银行体系也变得更加健康。当时银行坏账率35%都活过来了。\n有人要问，国企债转股转到私人手上了，怎么办？我的回答就是，我们还是要想开一些，国企的资产是全民的，它转移到了私人投资者手上，其实还是整个社会的，它还是在中国。沈阳机床厂本来可以跟西门子竞争，结果因为财务问题打不过西门子多可惜。我们老说要搞自主研发，现在好不容易有这么一个企业，为什么不帮助它轻装上阵做大做强呢，它仍然是中国的企业。（理论上国有全民资产存在超额分配，实际效用上确实对长远产业发展有好处，更长期可以再从私人手中强制赎买回来或者再分配的干预）\n\n政府加杠杆，改善民生。老一代一半时间牺牲掉了，到了孙子一辈，含着金汤匙出生。储蓄那么多留给后代，这里就有代际公平的问题。让那时的年轻一代多抗点国家负担也理所应当。\n\n当基建投资边际收益率越来越低时，国债的低收益率也好过地方政府原来的高息举债。如果真搞政府举债，也必然后面意味着央行存在降息的空间，避免跟国债抢市场。\n问题很多，你怎么去解决呢，有人说这不行，那也不行，我们必须一揽子解决。中国的改革开放告诉我们不存在一揽子的解决方案。前段时间老谈顶层设计，你发现顶层设计根本行不通，中国的事情就是小步快跑，你要先找到一个突破口，然后再扩大。\n重点说说货币再创造\n在无锚的纸币化时代，通胀是最好的去杠杆手段，何必搞三种紧缩手段呢？加大货币供应让货币贬值进而降低债务价值最符合ZF的利益，在债务问题上，制造通胀比增加税收对人们造成的痛感要隐秘得多。\n是否低利率时代的诉求都是CPI稳定，否则就是社会不稳定的问题先跳出来。平台和要素经济扩张的这么些年，分配比例不平衡和债务周期问题已经开始在反制约市场经济下的经济增速了。央行的第一目标是稳定币值，因为可靠的货币信用确保他们可以长期靠”印钱“就可以分配财富。\n\n正所谓良药苦口但能治病，因为债务周期内生伴随着经济结构病症的，必须要进行锻炼来进行削减不必要的肥胖部分，就像一味的加强营养并不能使身体变棒一样。积弊还得磨练医，所以中国也提供给侧改革。\n现在处在上一轮IT技术革命的尾声阶段，消费侧已经积累了几十年的问题，各国无不例外期待的是一个供给侧的破局点\n\n现代经济危机的完整演化逻辑是:\n流动性危机→金融危机→债务危机→货币危机→威胁执政安全\n印钞，货币信用危机；不印钞，债务危机进而引发金融危机。有没有一种印钞方式，既能缓解债务压力精准投放货币于实体经济，又能避免损害货币信用呢？— 这不是以工代赈嘛 ，就是降杠杆周期有些长，也只有缓慢降杠杆是有效的。\n\n有一种提法是开启全国的水循环体系的建设，大型基建转向环境治理方面。水污染治理和水资源利用，可以渗入三四线城市，接替房地产的一定缺口。\n\n相对于财政发债印钞，央行投资BSA（基础战略性资产）发钞的可靠性更高，也最符合大众的利益。\n贬值说\n有一种说法是货币多了有没有问题呢？如果你发的货币是平均的分到每个人头上就一点问题都没有，两倍，十倍都没有问题，大家同比例的增加。这种观点是错误的，假如货币极速贬值1倍，是可以缓解债务，但一个人的债务是另一个人的债权，债权人的资产被稀释，将引发银行挤兑换物资，流动性危机爆发。且对外看，你的货币贬值，换来的物品并不会增加（除非你是美金这样的全球货币）。故只能拉长周期来处理降杠杆的事情。\n美联储搞量化宽松，其实也是为了促经济投资和就业，操作也不是直接发钱。扭转预期与保长线投资，使得不出现流动性危机，好在其世界货币的地位，去国外掠夺资产，资本界挣了钱，又反映到股市上，或分流一些到实体中，让负债者慢慢地去杠杆（用时间换空间）\n代金券说\n也有人说直接发居民代金券，但代金券将引发的是短期债务周期问题，稍微拉长点看，依然没用，想从你荷包里掏出更多的钱出来，与民众债务压制无力消费是违背的。搞任何的财政补贴，都是在给食利者张目，资金最终肯定会流入到食利阶层去。\n货币信用\n把货币信用看得这么重？你不是还要争一争世界货币的地位吗，那每一份信用都要珍视。见下面的货币霸权相关章节。\n直接印钱是玩笑话\n很多人认为印钞放水就是央行拧开水龙头，马上就水漫金山了。在实际操作中，不是这么回事，只有借出来的钱才是真的钱。你不去借，就没有水流出来。房地产作为国民经济支柱的真正作用之一就是通过居民的购房贷款负债，向市场投放货币，所以才有房地产是印钞机的说法。前几轮降首付降利息，房市就就救起来了，这回的表现很差，当时居民负债还很低，此刻再增加就会成为次级贷（收入下行，失业上行）。且我国有很多民间借贷，根本统计不到，所以实际负债比官方数字更重是情理之中（从居民端负债来看，已经借不动更多债了）。在周期向下趋势中，企业也不想借钱，轮到银行也为难，它敢放款的越来越保守，不想要钱，这样水就放不出来。\n22.8月中旬之所以调低MLF利率，是因为市场利率和基准利率出现了gap，市场利率早就跌到地板上了。原因是银行不缺钱，钱压根就放不出去。这就叫流动性陷阱。\n有人说，直升机撒钱行不行，牺牲货币信用托底房市，控制货币有序贬值。只要人民币贬值一倍，房价就没有泡沫了，软着陆了，这就是以通胀消化泡沫，以时间换空间。你见过哪个正经的经济学家敢这样讲，因为根本就没有可行性，钱不能直接印，这是常识。如果可以直接印钱，就相当于我随手写一个借条，对你说你欠我100w，你认吗，你不认这张借条就等同于废纸。民国金圆券就是不远的例子，只要当局稍动下念头，社会就会崩溃，所以根本不存在控制货币有序贬值，金融市场永远被两种情绪控制，一种是贪婪，另一种是恐惧。一旦贬值趋势确定，谁还愿意持有确定贬值的货币？定会一窝蜂抛售。货币信用是一种共识，它非常脆弱，必须要有制度约束，一旦约束没有了，它绝不会有序贬值，而是瞬间崩塌。\nMMT理论有话说\n有人会跳出来说MMT（现代货币理论）不是说可以无限印钞吗？讨论MMT虽是以印钞为切入口，但实际讨论的是宏观债务到底能加到什么程度。MMT讲的是通过财政扩张创造货币，也就是通过政府借债发钱。政府的还债承诺和借债规模，就是货币的信用基础。以美元发行为例，美债为美元背书，美元给美债兜底，有点像左脚踩右脚的轻功踢云纵，可以上天。理论上，美债可以无限展期和扩张，但实际上其利息规模一般要控制在GDP增量之下，这就是MMT理论的约束机制。若债务增长太快，会出现两种情况，一是偿债信用遭到质疑，你多干的部分连利息都还不上，债务只会越积越多，怎么可以让人相信你可以还债。二是劳动收入整体下降，失业上升。多干的部分拿去还利息就不够，那么存量的弱势群体就要被牺牲一下，用以节流，带来的结果一般就是劳动收入下降。\n逆周期调节与汇率\n所谓宏观调控，就是在上述平衡上走钢丝，并不是水多了加面，面多了加水那么简单。若GDP增速下行，逆周期调节要增加货币，会怎么样，会降息。但降息也受规则限制，就是发展中/发达国家间的利息差（买美债无风险收益的钱在美联储加息时肯定会跑一批）。发展中国家需要大量投资，是资本输入国。资本流出增长就会扑街，不增长资本进一步流出，这样就跌入了中等收入陷阱。南美的悲剧不能总怪华尔街玩阴谋，人家是阳谋，自己是青蛙在锅里洗澡，能怪得了谁。\n搞MMT是低增长的伴生品（配套低利息），日本就是玩这套，得益于日元信用良好，日元低息资金流入东亚其它国家，分享了发展中国家的增长，缓和分配矛盾，提高了社会对低增长的容忍度。\n22年的现状，既放不出水，央妈也不想放水，一涨解千愁的想法可以休矣。输入型通胀和猪周期来临，通胀可能也要抬头，连降息的空间也快到头了，随着资本外流，货币吃紧可能是常态，普通人做好储备准备过冬。\n阶段总结\n对一切经济危机进行溯源都可归结为贫富分化，这是所有体制内专家都不会说出的事实，他们只会归咎于贸易战和疫情等场外因素，倒不是他们没有读过马克思，而是他们只说符合其利益的话。\n\n高层有志于着手改变这一状况，比如一方面央行的数据显示城镇户均资产317万（含住房且为大头近7成，基于3万户城镇居民调查得来），而李总则公开表示有6亿人月收入不足1000，官方数据看似打架也不打架。收入是现金流是实的，资产没变现可以是虚的。\n户均资产同样本的（减去负债）均净资产是289万（看样子都挺有钱，算上这些未变现的房产，城镇户均负债率9.1%（虚），但债务收入(实）比为1.02，比美帝的0.93要高），分化程度高于资产分化程度（但又比美帝好些【美帝的贫富更剧烈】，净资产1%占据的净资产，美帝是38.6%，我们是17.1%，毕竟我国住房自有率远好过美帝）。但也不容乐观，最低20%的资产占总样本的2.6%，最高20%占63%，最高10%占47.5%。以资产论，东部最富（户均461w），东北最穷（165），西部（208），中部（263）都比东北强。\n央行报告的数据来自于30各省市，对3万余个家庭进行的调查，不是大数据的精确结果\n\n有效需求不足的根本原因是贫富分化，贫富分化的根本原因是财富分配制度出了问题。休扯什么努力or不努力，信这个的，要么是主张996是福报的资本家，要么就是还没走出象牙塔的小白。讲破大天，按劳分配（和按需分配相结合）最正经，道理虽这么讲，但现实是”按权力分配”。\n简单解读通胀与通缩\n经济只会出现通胀和通缩两种对立状态，最理想的就是我们说的温和通胀。信用货币本身是没有价值的，被创造出来就是为了流通和交易，上层的目标是增加社会的总产出，这样20%的人拥有比例会更多。而不是为了增加社会的总钞票或让钞票更值钱。\n\n\n什么是经济？经济就是做蛋糕\n\n\n什么是政治？政治就是分蛋糕\n\n\n什么是制度？制度就是规定谁先拿谁后拿\n\n什么是好制度？就是分蛋糕的人最后拿蛋糕\n什么是坏制度？就是分蛋糕的人先拿蛋糕，不让人知道他们拿了多少\n\n\n\n什么是宣传？宣传就是让做蛋糕的，感激分蛋糕的能让他吃到蛋糕\n\n\n通胀和通缩会影响人的判断，花钱还是存钱。就通胀而言，在合理预期下，大家会想着赶紧把钱花出去或投资出去，所以很多人不惜押上未来30年的收入去购买房子。这样的好处是大量的人愿意拿出钱或贷款消费，高速增长的消费会带动投资和出口，三驾马车跑起来了，经济自然就上去了。但同时也埋下了隐患，就是拉高了居民负债率。负债率这个东西，在居民收入增长的时候，是个听话的小媳妇，但当居民收入不确定的时候，她就是个闹离婚的母老虎。大量的货币流通也符合上层部分人的利益，市场上钱越多，他们财富增长的就越快，参与其中的普通人也跟着喝点汤。\n短暂通缩可以说是过度通胀的结果，通胀为因。在过去过度通胀会引起生产的相对过剩，随之发生供大于求，接着破产引起信用收缩，而用信用表现的信用货币也就出现紧缩。简单说通缩的发展不符合少部分人的利益需求，故任何国家都不允许通缩长期存在，走向温和通胀是必然的方向（从模型上因为资方并不会全消费，经济发展必然需要注入更多的货币）。\n从债题上看站队\n财政学的核心是负债转移，财政永远是最大的政治。两个有名的电视剧《走向共和》，《大明王朝1566》中开篇都是在算账\n\n短期的政府部门加杠杆，目的也是最终未来撬动更多的企业部门，居民部门杠杆（或者让子孙来还）。财政本身并不产生财富，财富还得是诱使劳动部门创造，他们最终抽取上来来填窟窿。\n下方跳出日本陷阱的章节里也提了杠杆置换。\n\n货币学的核心是信用稀释。储户多增发流动性让存款贬值，股民多时就牺牲流动性让股票跌。\n要去人数少的一方。保值的资产会相对本币上涨，举个不恰当的例子，大多数人炒股的时候就会通缩，大多数人存款的时候就会通胀，让经济和市场随机运转，不调控并不符合赌场的利益。\n用《一出好戏》来看货币\n还记得《一出好戏》里的货币应用场景吗？鸡贼的张总主张用扑克牌作为货币行驶交换媒介的职能，并告诉大家整座岛上只有一副扑克牌，结果小兴发现自己手上竟然有4张红桃二，说明扑克牌并不止一副，甚至都不止4副。\n值得思考的问题是：\n（1）扑克牌货币的锚是什么？\n（2）为什么张总增发了扑克牌，却没有引起通胀？\n第一个问题并不难回答，扑克牌货币没有锚，能行驶“交易媒介”的职能是基于全体认同的公共契约——这才是货币的本质。所以货币并不需要锚。\n\n自从布雷顿森体系终结，全世界国家的货币完全是信用货币了\n央行的第一目标是稳定币值，因为可靠的货币信用确保他们可以长期靠”印钱“就可以分配财富。\n\n全部的新纸牌都在张总手上，拥有货币发行权的张总随便掏两张纸牌出来就可以将别人辛勤捕获的鱼换到手却并不需要付出对等的劳动。\n既然如此，鸡贼的张总为什么没有掏出更多纸牌将市场上的所有物资据为己有呢？一旦人们发现他所发行的货币（纸牌）价值下跌，就没有人愿意持有纸牌而最终令他无利可图。\n如果你的家族可以通过印刷纸币就能占有社会财富的话，你会舍得让你发行的纸币变成废纸吗？张总在发行货币的过程中严格控制了货币量的增长，保持了物价的稳定，从而令人们感受不到他在超发货币，若不是小兴看到4张相同的牌型，他的秘密就不会被发现。\n非紧缩货币的降杠杆方法\n货币扩张推动金融资产涨价实现少数人超额分配的同时，也带来了债务危机。过分通过商业银行进行信贷扩张的路径不仅不能将货币注入实体经济，反而会进一步吹大泡沫筑高债务风险，加剧贫富分化。\n怎么降杠杆呢？多数人认为，我们必须降低M2的数量和增长速度。但是，降M2存量几乎不可能，很困难【意味着债务违约消灭货币】。降低速度是可能的，但是在经济下行的时候，全面的降低货币发行速度就是自杀。1929年的大箫条给我们的启示就是，胡佛总统控制货币的发行，结果让大萧条越来越深入【先拖住流动性陷阱，等不来新技术就等来新动乱】，这是美国学术界一致的看法。在我们现在这种情况下一定要保持一定速度的货币增长量，否则我们的经济下行压力就会更大。\n真正的降杠杆就是消除坏账，防止坏账增长。M2并不可怕（央行的储备货币是实锚），可怕的是坏账增加。原来我们有一种美丽的烦恼，就是储蓄太多，储蓄多却走上日本的道路。日本是我们的前车之鉴，他大量的钱先变成了房地产和股市泡沫，接下来承受的果子就是产业空心化。\n跳出日本陷阱的做法\n我们吸取他的教训就是，应该把电子符号转化为收入流，扩大直接融资，股市、债市、PE、VC，让钱流入实体领域，促进科技创新，产业升级。但是目前经济下行压力这么大的情况下政府要有所作为，要发行更多的政府债券，为老百姓提供稳定的收益。\n大家可能会问，政府债券谁还呢？子孙后代呗。我们的下一代，这一代已经生活得很好了，那他们的再下一代是含着金汤匙出生的，凭什么他就可以什么也不干享受美好的生活，让我们这代人做出牺牲呢？这是一个很好的代际公平问题。\n政府发债做什么？现在主要是置换地方债，这是对的。把原来的商业债务转化成政府债务。但这还不够。国企债转股混合制改革，也可以搞。大的方向是杠杆置换，现在也就只有国家可以继续加杠杆，但居民降杠杆也需要时间。\n应鼓励企业向中西部地区移动，中国仍有1/3的人口收入在每天2美元或以下，企业内移比走出去好，这也是走德国路线一种，产能转移与培养内需，也是产业竞争力再造的选择，利于共同富裕。资本回报下降是一个自然过程，原来01到12年这段时间资本回报率太高，12%，20%，其实是不正常的。\n降杠杆的反跳\n疫情之后，房地产交易又活跃了起来，这里可能的原因是：\n（1）2019年上半年同样经历过一段楼市、股市小阳春，彼时对美贸易战才正进入谈判期，不是一轮新增长的到来，恰是非金融部门经济效率恶化的一种转换。实业的老板不愿意那么累了，转换资金换个赛道玩玩。\n（2）疫情对经济影响一定是负面的，失业情况严峻，不然也不会搞什么“摆摊经济”。此时资产价格上升与基本面恶化的情况是不符的。你当然可以说资本市场的起伏是资金流动主导的与基本面无关，但与基本面相背离的上涨就是炒作，就看你玩不玩得起了。\n地方债务回望\n过去20年干完了发达国家100年的建设量，损耗最大的首先是地方政府错误决策，建设大量的低效低质量新城，各种消耗财政资金的错误项目，垃圾项目，虚假项目也是类似的。被贪腐或资金外逃，都是造成土地财政循环巨大损耗的地方。至于一般性腐败，裙带关系，普通行业利益输送，细分市场垄断在这些大巫面前可能都排不上号。\n这些年暴饮暴食，还欠下了巨额负债，这不是财政缺口那么简单，由奢入俭的缺口问题比债务暴雷更容易解决点，但如果财政缺口那么好填补，就不会有那么多王朝灭亡与财政崩溃，尤其是整体腐败造成的财政崩溃。要是财政缺口那么好补，90年代也不会有几千万人下岗，国企破产改制。\n解决财政缺口，不是拿新的耗材来填补缺口，而是忍痛壮士断腕，断臂求生以求缩小缺口。政府减员增效，至于科技突破，产业升级，一带一路海军发展本来是最大的发展方向，但其原始积累资金原本要靠财政，包括房地产收益来提供。这些原始收益大量被这个广袤的国家低水平的官员损耗掉，着实可惜，一方面这个国家太大，在放与管之间，也是分几级区位的，在大片的无所谓中国地带，更多是让基层自由发挥，撬动老百姓的积极性和资金，最终不都还是群众的钱么。\n22、23之交\n22年第4季度，住户贷款余额75万亿，同比增速5.39%，住户经营贷款同比增加16.5%。银行开始限制提前还贷。\n23年M2飙升，居民存款飙升已经超过贷款飙升。\n\n22年全年存款新增大概18万亿\n1月份新增6.2万亿，一个月就完成22年1/3的KPI，搏命存钱\n一月份贷款4.9万亿\n\n\n陷入到与海外不同的经济阶段，海外通胀，种花家通缩。可以说各经济体都害怕通缩，看什么时候爬出大坑，回头我再来更新此篇。\n\n感叹\n长期的灌水累积了大量的债务，债务维持依赖于低息环境，而债务的偿还还依赖于通胀造成的债券贬值（等同于货币购买力下降）。现在的这套货币扩张体系，带来的后果是：泡沫化，空心化，贫富分化。\n由于金融资产的另一端对应着债务，所以对一个独立经济体来说，金融财富的集合是0\n一国居民的生活水平取决于生产商品和服务的能力，工业制造能力才是大国综合国力最重要体现。荷兰和英帝国均是因为坐靠金融便可收割全世界，何苦自己跑船和生产，才将霸主地位拱手让出，结果无一例外让代工小弟掌握核心技术，成为生产中心，取代了旧霸主。\n中国抛头露面的少有真正的经济学家，这话不假，因为很多经济学家只是将资本掠夺进行合理化的“文化打手”而已。\n你讲公平，他谈效率，好像效率与公平天然相悖一样，事实上，在危机中公平就是效率，因为没有公平就没有稳定，又哪来的效率呢？\n里根的改革\n70年代在越南战争，德日的竞争压力下，美国的商品没那么好销路了，美元因为一直印及为了刺激出口，在动态汇率机制下，一直在贬值趋势中，当然在强大的工会和保障机制下，美国的人工成本是比较高的，与日德来说确实欠缺竞争力，这种趋势下在同一赛道的自然竞争下是没有胜出的可能。\n在石油禁运危机的加持下，短短几个月时间，美国的企业和生活成本飙升，本国企业产能没有出路，失业率大涨。按照凯恩斯主义理论，经济衰退，失业上升时，政府应该加大开支拯救经济；而当经济过热物价飞涨时，政府又应该紧缩财政，给经济降温。可衰退和通胀同时出现时呢，凯恩斯矛盾了，美国政府左右为难，对经济难题束手无策，当时投资者对经济前景更加悲观，股市崩盘40%，股神巴菲特的大部分财富也灰飞烟灭。\n滞涨\n适度通胀是对经济发展有利的选择。为什么这么说，生产的终极目标是消费，但是在上面的过剩问题解释中，已经提及了。\n滞胀是啥：经济停滞型通胀，不是供需导致，主要是由原材料或能源产品涨价所引发的。\n\n经济停滞，失业及通货膨胀 同时持续增长的现象。旋风的核心是失业（产能过剩的结果），带动消费不振，进而生产更没有动力；导火索通常是外部输入的通胀，如大宗商品原材料涨价，本质是财富分配不均，生产效率无法跃升的一种累积体现。\n可以这样简化理解，大宗商品价格上涨，成本上升及理论减少，引致商品价格上升，低收入人群更无力消费，引起经济随之放缓。\n另一方面配套经济政策延误问题出清，在这种情况下为了刺激，常规想到的是续命货币宽松，相信有产阶层的能力或觉悟，但并不能解决消费病症，更可能助长金融投机，该救助的人或模块根本得不到救治，相当于在膏肓的虚症下仍然下猛药，只能让身体进一步的虚。\n消费侧的问题只能调转方向，从供给侧来治，是一个问题出清的阶段，必然是痛苦的。\n\n政府当时通过增加货币发行来刺激消费，结果适得其反，因为政府增加的支出最终还是通过提高税收来保持财政平衡（当时里根的改革还没上，对资本层的征税求阶层平衡还是通行做法），结果让企业和个人来买单。\n公平 ===&gt;  效率\n社会对政府批判加剧，大家开始相信政府体制出了问题。被压抑已久的资本家阶层看到操纵社会舆论反攻倒算的机会。美国大法官鲍威尔批评企业家向劳工阶层谄媚，商会开始组织起来向政府和公共媒体进行游说，给美国人洗脑，十年时间内，游说机构在华盛顿如雨后春笋般成立，平均每位国会议员都有130名说客为其服务，是代表劳工利益说客的几十倍。普通民众的政治声音被淹没在了金钱的汪洋大海里。商界的声音主要有2个\n\n批评罗斯福以来美国政府采取的亲工会政策，把太多利益分配给了工人，挫伤了企业家的生产积极性，成为美国经济衰退的根源\n批评政府实施高福利政策，圈养了一批好吃懒做的社会蛀虫，提高了人力成本不利于经济复苏\n\n商界给政府开出的药方是：政府减税+放松管制+削减福利，把市场还给资本家，美国经济自然就会好起来。找了芝加哥大学一批信奉自由竞争的经济学家作为代言人，也就是芝加哥学派。一系列酝酿下，80年代，亲商业反劳工的里根总统上台了。\n里根上台\n里根的政策总结起来是：不进行财富再分配，而是反过来使有钱人更富有，大企业随后大量花费及投资，使社会各阶层皆获益。\n上任仅3个月，就铁腕镇压了一场罢工运动，开除了1.2w名参与罢工的空中交管员，给了工会下马威。开始解除终身合同，解散工会，开启将工厂搬到国外的做法。在任内，美国企业带头掀起了全球化浪潮，将生产基地转移到东亚墨西哥等低成本地区，昂贵的人力成本得以削减，企业利润由此突飞猛进。代价就是美国本土制造业岗位的快速流失，贫富差距随之加大，为后来的另一次危机埋下了伏笔。\n减税措施使企业负担转嫁到政府身上，政府赤字开始空前加大，成为世界最大的债务国。滞的问题最终解决还是通过产业结构的调整和第三次科技革命转民用，结合自己庞大的国内市场和美元霸权彻底甩开日德。\n也有批评家认为，里根投入大量预算押注军事产业，并认为接踵而来的经济增长并非减税造成的，而是政府大幅支出的结果。\n保罗·沃尔克有那么神？\n曾经吹他是最伟大的美联储主席，我个人来看，并没有，通过疯狂的加息，他的措施，对于胀是有用的，但是对于滞，没有功效。\n面对通货膨胀，芝加哥学派弗里德曼描述当时里根了解到”若要成功遏止通货膨胀，金融的管制和短暂的经济衰退是不可避免的“，故里根仍然赞成沃尔克执行紧缩货币的策略。\n拉美的滞胀\n宽松的外部资金供给\n在70年代原油涨价背景下，石油输出国美元收入充足，美联储维持低利率，共同提供了宽松的外部借债环境。\n一方面，七十年代两次石油危机导致原油价格大涨，石油输出国获得了巨额美元收入，增值保值需求强烈，国际市场美元供给充足。\n另一方面，七十年代美联储货币政策整体宽松（大宗商品涨价，经济难过，不敢加息），低利率环境降低了拉美国家的借贷成本。伴随全球金融一体化进程，欧美商业银行加大对拉美国家的信贷投放。\n在这种外部宽松刺激下，拉美国家经济激进扩张，举债盲目。\n\n相继实施进口替代战略，急于实现现代化，实行“高目标，高投资，高速度”的方针。庞大的经济发展战略需大量资金投入，但国内储蓄率和投资率普遍低，本国资金匮乏，只能依靠国际资本，大举外债。\n\n资金效益低下，内部政经局势差\n但拉美国家外债使用效率低下，缺乏良好的规划管理，大量外债被用于投资项目周期长，效率低，流动性和变现能力差的大型公共事业，且部分被用于非生产性支出如弥补国营企业亏损，购置军火等，短期内没有收益，当外部资金回流撤退，那就将压力山大了。\n另外，通货膨胀，经济衰退叠加政局不稳定，刺激拉美国家部分企业和私人的资金外流，资金愈发短缺，又进一步强化了拉美国家借外债的动机。\n外部局势变化\n80年代初，美联储为应对滞胀困境，吸引国家资本回流，自1980年8月起连续加息，一年内提到22%，拉美国家借的多为浮动利率，成本骤升，点燃债务危机的导火索。石油危机冲击带来的周期性衰退，欧美各国加强贸易保护主义，采取提高关税，设置进口限额等各种高非关税壁垒等手段，向发展中国家转嫁危机，造成拉美国家巨大的贸易逆差，沉重打击以出口贸易为主要外汇收入来源的拉美国家。\n当美元升值，大宗商品价格下跌，拉美国家出口减少，利息负担上升，偿债能力大幅下滑，国际资金加速流出，加剧拉美地区资金短缺局面，货币危机爆发，拉美国家货币大幅贬值。\n老美为啥不崩溃\n在过去几十年，中美没竞争关系，有一段时间肉麻的说G2。美国把低端产业转移中国，他们赚取超额利润，搞高端产业和技术研发，顺便吸收中国这边的顶级人才，中国这边没有高端产业，开不出来高工资，优秀人才自然会用脚投票离开中国，一定程度上讲，有那么一些年确实是这个路线。\n2010年之前，中国顶级名校的学生怎么说来着，不在国外就在出国的路上，尽管现在人才依旧在持续外流，但势头已经好转了，最主要的原因，还是我国内部市场已经形成，可以给头部人才定高价，不再像之前那样卖茶叶蛋的比造原子弹的收入高。那种情况下，除了少数有家国情怀的人，绝大部分为了生活还是离开了。现在顶级人才的收入差距不断拉近，将来才能继续回国。\n我国一直有个跟顶级人才讲奉献不讲钱的毛病，华为为什么研发像点样，主要是愿意给钱，头部科研人员的收入不低于欧美同行，但**中国现在距离美国那种吸引全世界富人举家迁入的能力还差很多，这种情况一天不出现，中国货币就没法跟美国相比较**。疫情这种样子，君不见潘跑跑这类人还在持续在向美国跑，这本身就是在给美国输血。美国经济一直有个很重要的增量，就是全世界富人的持续涌入。\n美丽国的二元对立统一\n只要你愿意，你可以拍出两个美国，首先是巨差的市区，穷人和无家可归者呆在那里，乱七八糟垃圾满天飞，连麦当劳窗户上，都装了防弹玻璃和铁丝网，一副末日景象。但是如果出了城，路过一个个富人区，别墅样式的房子一直延展到天边，绿油油的树，干净的马路，给人感觉这才到了一个发达国家。\n从老百姓层面看，太多人傻白甜到弱智的地步，连两位数加法都弄不明白，很多人说，有计算器就可以了。不过现实里，如果两位数加减法都弄不明白，思考更复杂的问题就会很痛苦，人就倾向于做点头脑简单的事情。时间长了，脑子就越来越简单。作为软件从业者，我们很清楚，类似像数据库，数学软件，芯片设计，CAD绘图等这些复杂又精细的软件，基本都被美国控制着。而且我国最顶尖的公司暂时也搞不出来。搞出来也没有什么市场空间，这些软件都融入到我们生活了，现在几乎每个用手机的人都间接使用这些软件，也就是说**美国这个国家的上限非常高，下限非常低**。\n大家平时在看他们底层loser的搞笑秀的时候，也要想想他们的头部公司在忙啥，认清差距才是进步的关键，以前因为我们主要是接受西方的技术转移，需要我们研发的并不多，这几年开始触碰到了技术屏障，也就是西方有些东西不愿意转移了。我们才发现这条路有多难，不过越是难才越要做，难的事才有价值，如果印度越南都能做的事那根本没什么意义只是增加点就业。现在的困难时期正好是深耕时期，低端产品卖不动，才更需要考虑研发更高水平的产品，科研人员才有价值和地位，才能产生正反馈和持续的发展动力。\n美国这个国家，类似于自然界的模式，赢家通吃，极度的奖励强者，马斯克的身价已经超过了Bill Gates和Buffett的总和，他的个人财富能排到全世界国家财富的前50，真正意义上的富可敌国，如果你足够牛逼，足够有创造性，他们可以动员天量的资源供你使用，你能做的事情更大，成就也就更多。用一个经济学家的话说，美国两百多年其中有100多年引领世界，靠的不是全部美国人，而是极度依赖一小撮极具创造性和突破性的美国人，这些人创立了美国的国债制度，研发出了原子弹和计算机，开创了一个又一个的新领域，其他人跟在这些人后面喝汤。\n制度优势\n美国人真正的优势在哪，它的制度对那一小撮头部的人极度友好，他们犯了错，给容错机会，有他们的破产制度，他们有成就就给难以想象的奖励。这种情况下，全世界顶级人才自然会向他们聚集，头部这些人一直以来都是美国的关键核心竞争力。\n这次疫情中，他们几乎没受影响，马斯克的火箭一直发个不停，电动车迭代比火箭快得多，苹果的产品发布也基本没落下。美国就算伤亡再大一些有些影响，但是没有伤筋动骨，且这次疫情主要死的是老年人，那就更没感觉了，剩下的人，傻白甜，却有种自己管自己的觉悟。平时不太相信政府，碰到麻烦，也不指望政府。综合起来，他们的老百姓对政府要求很低，又有一个强劲的火车头（创造力人群）拖着，糗事不断但好像混得又很滋润。\n货币霸权\n瓷器国内对美元崩溃这事，还是太急，觉得就Conv-19这几年滥发货币，应在就在眼前了，然后发现这都过去这么久了，依旧没崩，所以自己呢，有点崩。美元那么强，是过去200多年的一个延续，就像地主老财家的儿子只要是不创业，很难真的坐吃山空一样，美国这几年的各种败坏，本身也是在消耗以前的信用。\n美国过去30年的平均年通胀率只有1.75%。在国际流通领域，美元占到40%，在各国外汇储备中占到90%。美元之所以是世界货币并成为各国央行的压舱石，是因为美元长期稳定所营造出来的广泛信用。即使是对灯塔国恨得牙痒痒的ISIS，对美元却爱得深沉，即便上面印着“我们都信仰上帝”。\n国际化的信用积累需要币值稳定\n为什么rmb财政货币化就要被各路经济学家抵触？\n\n\nrmb没有形成稳定的“信用预期”，现在的情况是就连老大妈都知道“存钱要不得，买房抗通胀”。过去长期放水形成了“钱越来越不值钱”的惯性思维。此外，1994年的价格闯关时期有一次严重的货币贬值（幅度25%)，所以在国际上rmb并不具备信用优势。\n\n\n“财政货币化”所兜底的地方债的质量是存疑的（不透明）。\n\n\n货币的国际信用需要靠科学的制度系统和法治体系来予以保障，自由兑换和浮动汇率是起码条件，也是目前所缺少的。\n\n\n美联储可以“无下限”操作的原因是美元在过去几十年的市场参与中建立起了强大的信用基础，其基础货币发行制度和流通便利程度也是其他币种无可比拟的。而rmb在这方面还有很长一段路要走，不可贸然凭空印钞而前功尽弃。rmb国际化势在必行，那么实现金融开放、浮动汇率、取消资本管制便是理所当然，而这一切都必须用稳定可靠的币值进行保障。\n世界货币替换的过程\n垃圾不垃圾是比出来的，你拿着印度货币，还是俄罗斯货币，更不靠谱。美元霸权的易主得另一种货币本身得信用好，好的状态得持续很多年，才能在大家心里扎下根。美国在一战时经济已经比英国强太多，但美元依旧和英镑没法比，直到二战结束，美国已经超过了整个欧洲，但仍旧需要借着黄金这张虎皮才彻底拿下了美元霸权。可见货币霸权替换有多难，不过一旦发生替换，也可以收益折腾很多年。\n\n截止 24.7 月，基于 Swift 的数据统计，全球支付货币排名，按金额口径人民币保持全球第四大最活跃货币位置，占比 4.74%（前面是美元的 47.81%，欧元的22.47%，英镑的 7%，后面跟的是日元的 3.62%，加拿大元的 2.42%，澳大利亚元的1.8%, 港币的 1.63%）。若以欧元区外的国际支付口径，则占第 5，占比 3.32%\n同时，人民币在跨境贸易金融业务金额口径上（银行间的 MT400-跟单托收，MT700-信用证开立的报文量），占比6%，超过欧元的5.83%，已经来到第二位，仅次于美元，只是美元占比实在太高，83.22%，是中国的近14倍。也就是做生意付账，全世界有83.22%使用美元，我们自己做生意，用人民币支付的份额已经达到了52%，已经超过一半。关键是，外国人跟外国人做生意的时候，用人民币太少[1]。\n\n\n革命尚未成功，同志仍需努力。24 年还闹出一个外媒乌龙，金砖支付系统要代替美元，部分自媒体添油加醋单一使用人民币。如果未来的金砖支付系统就是单一使用人民币，那就直接用中国的人民币跨境支付系统CIPS就行了，所以自媒体上造谣都不带脑子\nCIPS 是美元Swift + CHIPS 的二合一体，现在还比Swift要差很远，截止到2023年底，CIPS有1518家机构参与，Swift系统有多少家机构参与？是11,000家。差距是7倍。我们这1518家参与机构里面，大多数是间接参与者，数字是1377家；只有少数是直接参与者，数字是141家。直接参与者，相当于有电话线直连；间接参与者，只是允许他用直接参与者家里的电话去打电话。直接参与者里面，要么是中国的金融机构，要么是中国金融机构在外国的分支机构（说到底还是中国的），要么是外国的金融机构在中国的分支机构（说到底跟中国沾边）。纯粹的外国金融机构，到2023年才出现了第一家，也就是才出现零的突破，一个英国的财团-渣打（香港）银行。还不是我们日常想象的跟中国关系比较好的俄罗斯、伊朗等国家的金融机构，只想感叹，做个事不容易。\n\n瓷器国现在的货币强势程度，感觉和美国在1900年左右状态比，依旧有些差距，毕竟在1894年美国已经时世界经济第一了，所以大家不要着急得慢慢来，一代人有一代人的任务，我们这一代人就依旧得目睹美元地位被侵蚀，估计很难看到它彻底倒掉。只要它不倒掉，确实可以一直洗劫全世界，就好比村里有人打了口井，大家都用这井取水，后来挖井的人退化成了恶霸，坐在井边收管理费，但是其他人想去打井呢，又太费劲了。有人已经在重新打了，不过还没出来水，或者出来一点，水质不如恶霸的，大家依旧优先去恶霸那里，只是信用积累的时间太长，彻底败坏也需要一些年。\n接下来不出意外的话，美国会一直不断出丑，因为巅峰应该已经过了，他们现在也跟所有帝国中后半期的情况一样，饱受债务的困扰，但想看他们彻底崩了，预计还得很多年，现在说中国超过美国为时尚早。任正非有句话，现在美国对我们很恶劣，但我们要继续坚持开放，继续向美国学习，其实大家也明白，美国这么大的成就不是偶然的，而是相继引领了两次技术革命，战后几乎所革命性的技术都是他们搞出来的。他们有自己的强悍之处，有一套行之有效的方案和路线。现在为什么在打压我们，因为我们在学习他们做事，并且他们发现我们学的很对，着急慌了。现在中国学习美国企业最有模有样的，就是华为。接下来还是要学习他们剩下了的优点，不骄不躁，我们需要学习的东西实在是太多了。\n接下来呢，还是要继续摸着白头鹰过河，直到把它彻底摸秃了为止。\n参考\n1.百家号 “朋友圈”不断扩大！人民币连续9个月位居全球支付货币第四位 ↩2.腾讯网 金砖支付系统，且行且努力 ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"经济学派与大变局","url":"/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E6%B4%BE%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%8F%98%E5%B1%80.html","content":"\n经济学都是政治经济学\n经济学都是政治经济学，都有阶级立场。经济学人物多如牛毛，但代表人物就这么几个人，除了马克思，都是站在资产阶级的角度来说话的。\n政治经济学的底层是人口经济学，人口结构，没有负债人群时，经济学就不管用了。\n欧洲都是小邦，诞生的经济理论只适用于国土面积小，人口少的国家，不适用于中国这样的历史悠久的大一统国家。凭什么经济理论要按西方海盗文明底色的特点来阐述？\n\n亚当斯密\n18 世纪人，如火如荼工业革命。工业资产阶级就有诉求，工业品需要市场。自己都是小国，工业剩余必要倾销，基于这个地缘的特点，就朝（周围）不发达地区倾销。都完成工业革命时，周边的倾销地有枪杆子了，倾销市场就变成殖民地\n为欧洲大陆诞生的新贵工业资产阶级背书，他出书的时候正是英国完成了工业革命，需要搞出口的时候，所以一定要鼓吹自由。大家不要设贸易壁垒，实际上强则贸易自由，弱则关税保护。\n看不见的大手，就是亚当斯密说的。亚当斯密，自由市场观点，适合资本主义萌芽阶段，契合农业到工业的切换初期。\n马克思\n马克思经济学因其辩证，对很多问题没有提出清晰的解决方案。\n马克思政治经济学的根本内核是劳动创造财富，所有权决定分配权，分解来看是：\n\n\n生产机会人人平等\n\n\n多劳多得\n\n\n生产力和生产关系\n科技是第一生产力，也是第一破坏力，破坏生产关系。\n当生产力还有上升空间，产业升级还有空间，能覆盖到大多数人，生产力决定生产关系，被掠夺的一方也是没有怨言的。\n我们更像是社会达尔文主义，也是哈耶克学派的主张。\n凯恩斯\n工业资产阶级形成后，掠夺劳动剩余，产生了矛盾，野蛮生长和战争破坏，凯恩斯就适合了。他提出政府应干预稳定经济，避免衰退和失业，搞工业升级和产业升级，钱从哪来解决办法就是财政扩张。\n哈耶克\n也可称为撒旦经济学，寄生经济学，推崇私有化。光鲜靓丽的人物多信奉他，完成了资本原始积累的人就是其拥趸，是亚当斯密的升级版，从新兴工业资产阶级跳到代表金融资产阶级的利益。金融资产阶级推崇资本无国界，在搞钱生钱的生意，印纸片子就可以买到自己想要的东西。寄生于政治主体，没有了寄生主体，寄生虫就灰飞烟灭。\n哈耶克学派的人都是寄生虫。没有集体主义，就不会有这类人的存在。没有凯恩斯做大蛋糕，就不会这些人来完成私有化原始积累。这些人完成原始资本积累后，就开始主张自由化了，又开始主张政府不要干预经济，最好是让他们想怎么搞就怎么搞。例如用 30 亿本金撬动 3000 亿资金池。这就是哈耶克的门徒干出来的。休克疗法就是哈耶克的理论，无政府主义。\n屁股坐歪的经济学家会把概念往计划经济、市场经济上包装、套，但这个世界上不存在没有计划的市场，也不存在没有市场的计划，罗斯福就是妥妥的计划经济，发国债不也是计划经济，加关税是干嘛。\n社会主义和资本主义分别是集体主义还是自由主义哪个是底色。自由主义绑架国家机器，因为金融资本主义掌握了最强的资源。\n弗里德曼\n50 年代，货币需求理论，为美元背书，要全球化。\n金融资本主义\n金融是一种邪恶的经营世界的底层哲学观念。金融天生具有阶级属性，通过金融来收买全世界的精英阶层。要抑制商人，而不是抑制商业。商业要繁荣，但商人则可能是可恶的。\n东西方的根本差异是财富来源于生产还是来源于交换，西方人是贸易理念，贸易往上就是金融。\n金融能侵蚀人性，利用人对财富的向往，邪恶的部分，控制世界。犹太想创建一个精英主义的世界公民国家。唯一遇见了咱们这个有着家国民族概念的国家，吃了一鼻子灰。\n几十年前来了一拨人最牛掰的道德非常高的集体（二战以后，人民史观只在中国真正落地），给他们整郁闷了。如果不是 PRC，这个世界都会变成那样，没逃去湾湾的秃子一定会被鱿鱼搞定。如果不是中国把自己的路线保留住了，那个人主义和精英主义就彻底胜利了，整个世界就变成一个大号的印度，犹太人就是这么设计这个世界的，没准这世界就真的进化成雪国列车，饥恶游戏，疯狂的麦克斯，黑客帝国那样。\n金融的可怕之处就是让你坠落，变成霸道，变成资本家。犹太金融不在意你成为老大（不像中国文化十世之仇犹可报也），没关系，魔鬼的使命不是为了永远存在，而是为了让你也变成魔鬼，这才是其可怕之处。\n犹太本身就是一个打副手的。他来到世间的目的是为了让你坠落，屠龙勇士终成恶龙，便是西方的故事，也是西方人那种魔鬼思维的体现。\n百年大变局\n全球大萧条可能是百年未有大变局的部分含义，20 年代的大萧条用了 20 年才走出来。\n自我改革\n2025-2029年这四年看东西罗马谁先完成了自我改革，优化分配问题，若能通过生产关系进一步促进生产力更好（有些理想化忽略了人性的缺陷），不让经济危机蔓延到自己国内，才能在这个世纪成为这个世界的债权国（货币国际化）。\n\n几百年的现代化，越来越二元对立。集体主义和自由主义，看偏向而已。\n过往美苏争霸，苏联的解体和美国的独大。是苏维埃异化了，美国更像社会主义。「戈尔巴乔夫」及「里根」只能算重要原因和直接原因，不是根本原因。谁让老百姓过得好，才能走得久，是人民的选择。\n\n金融危机\n金融危机都是债务违约，抽贷引发经济危机。一战前美国是债务国，长期通过粮食，制造业形成贸易顺差，摇身一变成为债权国，霸权也从这里开始。人和债务是密不可分的，因为债务都是由人来承接的，当一个社会不再有人去当接盘侠，为你债务转移击鼓传花的时候，就必然会发生连锁性的债务违约。\n奥观海掘墓美利坚\n奥巴马是美国的掘墓人，奥巴马通过法案，将国债上限从 2900 亿提高到 12 万亿（当时已经有 10 万亿的国债了），法案的调整从此开启美元变毛的高速公路，也使得中国不再锚定美元发行人民币，开始锚定内部的专项债，内债不是债，不会被美国收割走。奥观海想把经济危机转嫁给中国。美元贬值，资产价值升值，再加息，抽贷，资产价格贬值，再回来。对中国这套一直不成功。\n2015 年中国打赢金融保卫战，千股停牌，惨胜。而美国美元潮汐效应有些不灵了，科技霸权也走到头了，且潮汐需要一个长周期过程（进入全世界经济体，资产价格涨-跌）来消化其的财政赤字。他已经到了连利息都还不起的地步，只能进一步超发国债，提高债务上限，到了爆发经济危机的边缘，民主党的奥马巴开了法案的头，但任上发的最多的还是特朗普。\n「川普王大美兴」已变「川普兴大美亡」\n特最想干的就是让美元贬值，制造业回流，就要降息，就会发生通胀，对世界货币来说是个无解的循环。其真正的目的应该还是美联储国有化，想要建立美国的国家银行，从人类命运共同体的角度中国可助他一臂之力，消灭金融资产阶级对全世界人民的吸血。\n但天命可能不在特朗普，他可能年龄不足以完成这个事，最大的可能是干成胡佛，小概率成为罗斯福。不管怎么来说，美国的人口结构底色还是红脖子，特朗普又是三权集于一身，不应轻视，夜郎自大。2029 可能是世界的分水岭。\n最后\n分析和抱怨很符合当下大众情绪，但立场始终是想办法去解决问题更为高级。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["经济"]},{"title":"自律是一种阶级属性","url":"/%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8Bvs%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html","content":"\n\n尊重原创，文章内容摘自 红豆不迷茫 的短视频作品\n\n自律其实是一种阶级属性\n自律是一种阶级属性，不是个人属性，底层人忙于生计和限于认知，是无法长期依靠意志力来自律的。\n\n 人的意志力有限，这里用了那里就没了，意志力的再生一定要看到正反馈。（即克制牺牲收获了实际的好处）。\n\n控制身材、保持家里整洁、对孩子温柔和坚定，其实都是钱，普通人做不到才正常。\n现在铺天盖地的自律人设，更对普通人造成了极大焦虑：不自律约等于无能，让你内疚自责，然后再用快速多巴胺比如零食奶茶爽剧综艺收割你，短暂的快乐后再加倍的内疚自责，就是这么拿捏你。\n\n\n不是自律使你自由，而是清醒使你自由，只要你足够不在乎，资本就不能拿你怎样。\n\n中美阶层生活没啥两样\n漂亮国社会（阶级）分层亦特别明显：\n\n有钱人吃死贵的有机，穷人吃海克斯科技。\n在穿上体现也同样明显，美国普通人穿的衣服连腰线都没有。\n\n巨大的生活压力和闭塞的信息及认知不允许一个底层人长期靠意志力去自律的，饮食习惯和居住环境上都能反映出来。暴饮暴食重口味和乱七八糟囤积癖，都无法纯靠意志力去解决。资本先把你剥削穷，然后让你发现你好穷，再剥削一波你的焦虑和失控呀。\n全世界的韭菜都一样，有需求有欲望。资本就是要把你割的干干净净，吃喝住喘气，压力大不开心想喝奶茶，加班了辛苦了想搓一顿，哪个环节都是资本方盘子上的肉，口袋里的钱。你肚子里的菌群都是被人家训练的。你的肉身，时间，尊严，整个人生都被人盯着。\n\n消费主义陷阱就是给中产设计的，在精益求精的路上被拿捏。\n\n上层引发的道德嫉妒\n最近有一本书叫《毫无意义的工作》，里面提及到了一个关于道德嫉妒的问题，现在的有钱人如CEO不仅有钱，还会站出来说我每天早上5点钟起床，我的时间是这样分配的。这个人占据了金钱带来的快乐，同时还占据了普通人辛勤工作带来的美德感。\n若把他的成功归因于他的努力的时候，这时候普通人对自己的结论有两个，一个是我又穷又懒惰，第二个是我越懒惰越穷，是一个恶性循环。\n以偏概全的宣传\n\n错误的因果关系的假象在这个时代的宣传口上普遍存在。\n\n这个努力导致成功的因果关系真的成立吗？还是说他一开始有了初始财富，有了教育资源，社会资源，有了家庭的扶持，甚至有了伴侣的支持，这一切外在因素突然之间都不存在，只归因到了他的努力。\nSo 结论是？\n\n虽满是恶趣味，但也未尝不是一记清脆的耳光\n\n自律不能让你自由，不自律是常态，不在乎才让你自由！\n\n要不要努力？\n劝别人努力的人是否有站着说话不腰疼的问题？\n\n当你做不同层的纵向比较时，的确会发现机会窗口相差特别大。\n但落回个人的方寸之间，努力会比不努力更好！\n\n用罗曼罗兰的话来说，认清生活真相后依然热爱生活，这才是英雄，哪个英雄不经历抗争?\n改变阶层离不开自律\n既然自律是阶级属性，社会又是有阶层的。能出世，你可以选择看透不在乎。入世情况下，达到更高的自我境界，抛开一夜暴富的少数情况，还是跟自律绑定无法分开。\n底层阶层多数是失去自由的状态，就会成为牺牲品，别人的牺牲品，单位的牺牲品，社会的牺牲品，这种情况下，心理也容易变得消极，唯有重拾积极，才能面对自己，面对痛苦，解决问题。\n自律的心理基础\n《少有人走的路》的作者的观点，自律的基础是自我价值的认可。\n要自我珍惜，自我照顾，就要认可自己的价值。举例来说，有些人如把自己的时间看成是有价值的资源，是不是就更可能珍惜时间，减少拖延？表面上是时间不够，其实是因为不把自己当回事，否定了自己的价值。\n\n为何有人会否定自己的价值呢?近了说跟环境有关，远了说跟原生家庭影响有关，是一个复杂的因素。\n\n结语\n自律是我们根据自己的价值观来约束指引自己的行为，积极来看，想要达到更高的自我境界，是一个慢功夫，需要持续不断优化自己，甚至是一辈子的功夫。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"蒸馏烧酒","url":"/%E8%92%B8%E9%A6%8F%E7%83%A7%E9%85%92.html","content":"\n各类酒的材料\nflowchart LR\n    A[土豆] -->|发酵| B(土豆酒)-->|蒸馏|C(伏特加)\n    AA[龙舌兰] -->|发酵| BB(布尔盖酒)-->|蒸馏|CC(龙舌兰)\n    a[葡萄] -->|发酵| b(葡萄酒)-->|蒸馏|c(白兰地)\n    d[麦芽] -->|发酵| e(啤酒)-->|蒸馏|f(威士忌)\n    dd[甘蔗] -->|发酵| ee(甘蔗酒)-->|蒸馏|ff(朗姆酒)\n    h[糯米/黍米] -->|发酵| i(米酒)-->|蒸馏|j(白酒)\n    x[大米] -->|发酵| y(清酒)\n\n外国烧酒\n\n\n全球基本同步开始蒸馏，如红酒蒸馏白兰地也就 600 年，brandy 的词源 brand 也就是燃烧，打火印的意思。用橡木桶保存变琥珀色。\n\n\n寒冷的北欧葡萄不好种，普遍都是大麦酿的🍺，一蒸馏，Whisky，精致水的意思\n\n\n炎热的中美洲适合种甘蔗这种糖分作物，甘蔗酿的酒蒸馏成烈性的朗姆酒\n\n\n美洲的土豆/地瓜，引入东欧的波兰，俄罗斯后，如获至宝的把这个东西酿的酒蒸馏成高度数的 vodka，词源voda 就是斯拉夫语水的意思\n\n\n中美洲还有一种跟芦荟似的龙舌兰，它的大根茎里富含大量淀粉，酿造蒸馏后就成了 tequila，龙舌兰酒，但它第一次蒸馏时度数很低，要经过二次蒸馏\n\n\n图片中的金酒，简单说原料是杜松子，有误导性。所谓的「Gin」指的是一种以谷物为原料，并以杜松子为主的多种药材与香料调味后，所制造出来的一种蒸馏酒，因为是以杜松子作为主要调味，所以很多人会称「琴酒」为「杜松子酒」，大家除了杜松子加其他东西各不一样，并无规范。当然确实在琴酒的世界中有只用杜松子做为单一原料，像义大利萨丁尼亚的「独奏曲琴酒Solo Wild Gin」，但是极少数派[1]。\n\n\n中国烧酒\n中国的第一锅蒸馏，技术质量也控制不好，含有醛，酮等杂质，一般会采取第二锅蒸馏的头一道酒为最佳，也就有了二锅头酒的名称。\n酒都是酒精+水的区别，正是蒸的时候伴随出来的 不同原材料微生物导致的复杂的高级醇，酯，酮类物质也被一起蒸出来提纯，形成了各自特殊的风味\n\n如泥窖+酒曲能蒸出富含己酸乙酯，丁酸乙酯的浓香型白酒\n二锅头这种更纯粹的乙醇就是清香型白酒\n用石窖酿的酒就会含有丰富的芳香型物质，就是酱香型白酒\n\n白酒莫吹\n白酒的历史不过百多年，蒸馏器元代诞生（是一种中东萃取药品的技术，经元朝向东传播的结果，英语 alcohol 就是阿拉伯语提炼精华的意思），但白酒的清晰传播历史记录，是清中后期的事了，成规模流行是清末民初。\n白酒在中国历史上就是非主流，一直是底层劳动者的麻醉品，有身份的没人喝辛辣火燎的烧酒。白酒翻身是 PRC 的军人爱喝，把旧时代的东西统统推翻掉，旧时代打土豪抄家抄没的都是绍兴，青岛产的黄酒。\n老百姓翻身，难道就不像喝点好的？精英阶层喝黄酒，喝葡萄酒，他们就不想？但粮食短缺，严格管控，黄酒损耗粮食太严重，给生存让路是第一要务，被国营的知名黄酒品牌主要是出口换汇用。那时我们能出口的只有粮食和基本矿产，粮食短缺一直持续到 70 年代末，黄酒文化基本断代 30 年，很多 50,60,70 都没喝过黄酒这东西，顶多是个药引子。\n早期的白酒基本都是高淀粉杂粮，比如说地瓜干酒，白酒只要是含糖含淀粉的农作物都可以，地瓜，土豆，糖厂的下脚料甘蔗干，甜菜渣，甚至是秸秆都成。白酒质量和口味讲究起来，成为奢侈品都是肉粮能吃饱以后的事。现在酿酒的顶梁柱是高粱，它成为酿酒主材，就是因为它旱涝地，盐碱地都能种，高粱杆还是编席的材料，真饿了还能吃，后来说的「单宁」这事是凑巧了。浓香，酱香，清香，米香这些概念是六七十年代才有的。从这些来讲，白酒品牌不要动辄上千年的来说故事，品牌要尊重历史。\n补记葡萄酒一些内容\n酿酒红葡萄的四大品种\n赤霞珠–Cabernet Sauvignon，皮厚晚熟，单宁重，涩，酒特别能存放，适合配硬菜\n梅洛/美乐–Merlot，口感柔和，更易入口，果酱感强。不确定大家的口味，容错率最高\n黑皮诺–Pinot Noir，颜色浅，有花果香，酸度高，酒出品依赖种植地和手艺，最顶级在法国勃艮第\n西拉/设拉子–Syrah/Shiraz，产地不同出品口味也不同，有黑胡椒味或浓郁果酱味，就像一个移花宫，一个恶人谷\n\n巨峰这种是鲜食葡萄，不是酿酒葡萄\n\n用乌龙茶来比喻\n赤霞珠：肉桂\n梅洛：水仙\n黑皮诺：凤凰单枞\n西拉：铁观音（清香型 浓香型）\n红酒的涩\n葡萄带皮酿酒会涩，有皮就有涩味，留糖去皮的香槟或白葡萄酒就没涩味。但白葡萄酒保存时间一般长不了，建议 2~3 年内喝掉。\n兑着喝\n西方某些师傅追求于去除葡萄酒里的糖份，而东方红酒+雪碧，威士忌加冰红茶，大家玩的时候常见的很，因为不是中国的传统文化，想怎么喝就怎么喝，也有好多女士不会喝酒觉得涩所以兑一下。但一旦喝茅台，我们不会加别的东西，冰块也不行。\n参考\n1.GQ 琴酒常见的25 种原料介绍 ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["历史","生物"]},{"title":"蚂蚁上市受难记","url":"/%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E5%8F%97%E9%9A%BE%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\n吃瓜经过\n\n摩拳擦掌\n11月初的互联网好不热闹，大家都等着蚂蚁金服的上市，摩拳擦掌，超额认购，最大IPO，都想从蚂蚁身上成为股东挣得一桶。当时的热火劲信息描述很多，我就没必要费那个口水搬运了\n风云突变\n波云诡谲，杭州马外滩金融峰会上爆出惊人言论，炮轰监管，直怼当局，显出了不恰身份的不成熟。来自未来的同学请去搜视频搜图\n各路吃瓜\n接着网络上朋友圈的吃瓜群众们炸开了锅，有号召给杭州厉害马点赞的，有金融业从业者不服马云的（这是普遍态，都想其被深深公平监管），有朋友说蚂蚁背后有很多红二代，才敢炮轰监管。有人说这下要凉（我站这派），有夸赞还是深圳马低调，也有说PeterMa(马明哲)才是深得低调真谛。\n传媒有意误导\n最炸的是凑热点的短视频，立即跟进讲解ABS（Asset-backed Securities，资产证券化），我听了一番，哦，这个讲的好，其实这里不是蚂蚁不受监管，其实也受监管，视频里或普遍说ABS的文章里提及的杠杆率，早被蚂蚁在最近的3年时间内同银行业伙伴一样，降下去了。早期放贷业务开启时，的确是ABS化，杠杆高，但受监管影响，早变成联合放款模式了。自有资金占比极低，这波就属于纯粹带节奏的。\n暂缓上市\n不过随着四部门约谈，蚂蚁觉得大局已定，并未对网络上的各路言论进行澄清。A股上不了，港股主动撤下上市计划，避免定价破发更无法交代。\n到底咋个蚂蚁变蚂蟥\n\n内部说法\n有朋友在蚂蚁内部，掌握的经营信息还是比较充分正确，但结论不正确，通过马老板膨胀了来解释这个事情（杭州马没有按照宣传稿件来讲，而是自己发挥），从而导致大家不能上市暴富。\n答案在风中飘，但肯定不是马老板气血上涌一时飘，毕竟大会讲稿早就准备好了。马老板是知道结果，酝酿几天还是真性情一把，兵行险着，携民意演一把试试，但这一出也可能使得后续不再有马云的时代（此语来自短视频界）\n内部人士当然情绪上认为蚂蚁做的都是对的，高效率的，只是马老板不对。\n真实为啥\n扒开BigTech招股书看看\n历史上数次金融危机均与“大而不能倒”的金融机构出现问题有关，将上市的蚂蚁集团虽然津津乐道于为中小企业服务，但其上市招股书的数据已被专业人士研究个透，其以80%为消费贷款为主的盈利模式，年轻人仅凭信用担保难免会埋下金融风险。\n\n2.1万亿贷款余额的，那么消费贷款1.7万亿，意味着如果有1亿人欠债的话，这1亿人平均每人欠了1.7万元，这明显偏离了央行掌握的大数据\n\n四宗罪\n\n赢家通吃，造成市场垄断和不公平竞争\n增强金融风险传播性（经营模式和算法趋同，易引发羊群效应，导致市场大起大落；前面这解释扯淡，只是店大欺客，信用放贷KPI凶猛，传导风险给银行是真）\n\n剩余扯淡凑韵的两宗\n\n\n诱导过度负债消费（被一些文章冠了一个帽子，金融价值观扭曲），只不过是托词，KPI导向信用放贷过猛才是真\n\n\n过度采集客户数据，更是扯淡的托词。\n\n\n\n就像中国历史上都要凑个四一样，战国四公子，京城四少，江南四大才子（才子之间能级明显有差距，可见唐伯虎点秋香）\n\nBigTech与金融业的冲突\n\n\n原来银行是信贷中介，现在通过市场分工来实现（强势甲方变乙方，十分的不爽）\n\n\n可能存在BigTech公司与银行利益不一致，风险责任不清以及助贷风险向银行传导等问题。（实操层面这是实话）\n\n\n金融业说我助小微你选择看不见\n在普惠金融主力军方面，银行业的小微企业贷款和普惠小微企业贷款余额达到40.7万亿和13.7万亿，而蚂蚁集团发放的小微经营信贷余额不到5000亿（应该还是受资本金的限制，不要谁喊声大就听谁的）。\n金融业说蚂蚁过分吹大数据风控\n在放贷时，BigTech公司与银行贷款一样，也使用担保品。如现金担保，电商平台账上都有现金或余额宝账号上有钱。二是应收账款担保，电商商户并不是立即收到货款的，有7天的收账款间隔。三是摊位费担保，保证金，技术服务年费等。这些措施不能归功于大数据风控。\n蚂蚁的优势确实在C端\n服务产业要跟产业滚在一起，这点上阿里系走轻模式，其实组织能力模型对B端服务的构建和认知还没有京东金融捆绑赋能产业链来得深。另一种视角可能京东链的抵押物更多，大玩家也更多，更放得开手。\n其对于企业数据信息的累计上，并不对传统银行有优势，这是BigTech与传统银行的差别，无需各执一词，而是现实情况。\n监管的态度\n如果金融企业涉及了吸收公共存款，就要对其进行审慎监管，因为蚂蚁平台其实属于变相吸收公众存款，它有一些金融业务牌照，又可以进行与银行类似的存贷款业务，就需要进行审慎监管。个人觉得就算理论上只是代销（我认为可看作影子银行），其平台放大能力，也不得不更加投以监管关注的目光。\n金融危机的教训\n金融危机的一个主要教训就是对影子银行链条认识不请，监管不力。面对类似影子银行的创新业务，必须要强调监管的一致性，特别要重视新巴塞尔协议作用和实施。\n风险识别，计量，防范和处置等方法的普遍适用和不断进步，正是巴塞尔协议与时俱进的基础，也是国际上对BigTech公司金融业务进入监管的出发点\n对于BigTech公司而言，如果其涉足类似银行的存贷款业务，对于类似的业务必须要有准备金，资本金，杠杆率，流动性等监管要求，保持监管的一致性\n后记\n个人的看法里，金融界一直有我放开了玩的冲动，很多创新机制理论上没问题，为效率挺好挺美的，但实操层面，因为人的参与就会出现各种纰漏与变形。所以在金融层面引入审慎监管是有必要的，别的不说，理论上没有经济危机或金融危机，但还是实实在在会发生。\n黑钱为什么能洗白，跟实操层面的理解和跟踪复杂性一个道理。\n借用一句比较糙的话，你不能假装人（官员/从业者/评级机构）都有最高尚的道德和最过硬的能力，就像假装新中国没有娼妓一样。\n","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["金融"]},{"title":"让大脑自由","url":"/%E8%AE%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html","content":"\n司令官的分层与发展\n\n人类可虚构出并不存在的事物。我们之所以称为人类，是因为我们能够幻想。\n细分下来说，还有一种能力–象征推理，也是人类最重要的特质（如五边形联想到五角大楼）。但这个能力全面运作起来，要经过3年的体验。说句玩笑话，在3岁之前，人类看起来与大猩猩没有区别。这种能力可能出于我们需要了解彼此的意图，动机，此能力使得人类在一个小团体内的协作称为可能\n\n幻想能力并不是在人一出生就完全形成了，大约需要3年时间。有实验表明如果她只有30个月大，就难以完成象征性地的推理，例如不能将玩具屋“小房间”与实验室“大房间”建立起联系。但若她已经36个月大，那就不一样了。所以3岁是一个很奇妙的时间点，也难怪3岁幼儿园开始喽。\n脑的分层\n我们头颅里不仅只有一个大脑，而是有三个。蜥蜴脑控制我们的呼吸，我们还有一个和猫大脑一样的大脑，在这两部分大脑上覆盖着一层类似果子冻薄薄的物质，是人类大脑第三个组成部分，也是强大且人类特有的大脑。\n\n\n\n脑干的功能与蜥蜴脑干的功能相同，脑干控制人身体的一些杂事，它的神经元调节呼吸，心率，睡眠和觉醒。脑干神经总是处于活跃之中。\n\n\n\n在脑干之上是古哺乳类脑，它更多地与人类动物性生存活动相关，可以成为3F活动：战斗（Fighting），觅食（Feeding），逃跑（Fleeing）以及生殖。\n\n在哺乳类脑中有一个重要区域，杏仁核，让人有愤怒，恐惧或愉快的感觉，负责情绪产生以及情绪所产生的记忆。\n另一个重要区域是海马体，海马体将人类短时记忆转换成长期记忆。\n还有一个重要的被包裹区域，丘脑，它是感觉的控制塔，是大脑中最活跃，构造最精细的部分之一。它位于大脑的正中心，处理来自感觉器官各角落的信号（皮肤和内脏的触压觉，痛温觉，视听觉），然后将信号传至整个大脑的特定区域。其下方的下丘脑是内脏活动和内分泌活动的高级神经中枢，如调节体温，水平衡、血糖，内分泌腺活动和生长发育等\n嗅球：连接了嗅觉神经，嗅觉信号会绕过丘脑直奔目的地\n\n\n皮层。直到一战前，人们还不知道最外层的皮层每个区域都是高度专门化的，有语言区域，视觉区域，记忆区域。\n\n一战有大量的人员中弹受伤，医疗技术使他们活了下来。战争中大脑受伤的士兵很多，科学家有机会详尽研究各种损伤及由于脑损伤导致士兵的奇怪行为。\n接着后来的二战，科学家们进一步证实了他们的发现，最终绘制出人类大脑的完整结构功能图，发现大脑在亿万年来使如何变化的。\n\n\n\n进化的驱动力\n发生了什么事让我们开始了这样的进化之旅，迄今最明确的解释是：人类的伟大成就看起来主要与讨厌的天气变化有关。天气的变化瓦解了我们祖先的食物供应，他们被迫从树上下来，到大草原生活，之后人类通过适应变化本身接管了地球。从四条腿走路到两条腿直立行走在大草原上，这节省了能量，让人类的大脑得以发展的更加复杂，精密。\n\n祖先的身体没有用剩余的能量来打造我们的肌肉，而是用来提升我们的大脑智慧。学习了如何在整个地球的大环境中生存，而不是一两个小生态环境中生存，我们学会了在头脑中而不是在嘴里长满尖锐的牙齿\n\n气候危机的源头猜测\n一些研究人员将这种气候变化归咎于喜马拉雅山的耸起，山的高度扰乱了全球气流，另一些学者指责突然出现的巴拿马地峡，改变了太平洋和大西洋洋流的混合，扰乱全球天气形势，就像今天的厄尔尼诺现象。\n越运动，大脑越正常\n特别的司令官\n虽然大脑只占常人体重的2%，却消耗了人体所需总能量的20%，当其处于完全工作状态时，单位组织重量消耗的能量要远远超过处在完全运动状态的四头肌。事实上，在任何时候，人类的大脑都不能同时启用超过2%的神经元，超过这些，供应的葡萄糖会被迅速消耗掉，人就会昏过去。\n大脑如此活跃，这也意味着大脑需要大量富氧血液，人不喝水可以坚持一周左右，然而大脑没有氧气它根本坚持不过5分钟，否则就面临严重或永久伤害。\n运动对大脑的保健\n运动使更多血液流向大脑，带来丰富的葡萄糖作为能量，还能带走氧气吸附遗留下来的有害电子。也能刺激蛋白生成，促使神经元彼此连接。活跃的儿童注意力更加集中。只要每周两次有氧运动可以将罹患一般老年痴呆的风险降低一半，阿尔兹海默症风险减少60%。\n\n我们的祖先在面临气候变迁时被迫四处迁徙，攀爬。开始在干旱的二维大草原走来走去，这需要很多体力。那时成年男子每天大约要走10~20公里路，妇女走大约一半。这意味着我们神奇的大脑是在人类不断解决问题的过程中，而不是在懒洋洋地躺着的过程中进化的。\n\n运动Make Us Better\n我们还不习惯在教室里或办公室的小隔间里面一坐就是8小时，也许还需几百万年时间人类才能适应这种久坐的生活方式。将运动整合到8小时的工作和学习中不会让我们变得更聪明，它只会让我们变得正常。\n每个大脑都不同\n越用越强\n大脑就像肌肉，你让它做的运动越多，它就变得越大，越复杂，人类生活中所做的一切实际都会改变大脑的样子，就例如你可以通过演奏乐器或从事某项运动等选择来塑造或重塑自己。\n\n野生动物的大脑比家养动物大脑大15~30%，寒冷，艰苦的环境迫使野生动物处于学习模式中，将野生动物的大脑塑造得非常不同。\n\n日常生活中你做了些什么，学了什么都会导致大脑形态的重新塑造，对每个人来说，这些变化都是独一无二的。即使具有相同经历的同卵双胞胎，他们的大脑也不是按照完全相同的方式布线的，你可以将整个事情都归因于经历。\n\n当神经元处于学习状态时，它们膨胀，摇摆进而分裂，在一点断开连接，滑行到附近的一个区域，与那里的新邻居建立连接，还有一些原地不动的神经元只是增强了彼此间电连接，提高信息传递的效率。你大脑深处大量的神经元像爬行动物一样移动着，蜿蜒滑行至新地点，一端处于膨胀或分裂状态。\n\n在大脑手术前无法预测大脑某个精确区域的功能，因为世界上没有两个完全相同构造的大脑，每个大脑不仅在结构上存在不同，在功能上也是不同的。每个人大脑中存储语言的区域是不同的，双语人群甚至不在相似的地方存储两种语言。且大脑每个区域在不同人之间以不同的速度发育。\n几个阶段高峰\n婴儿刚出生时，他们的大脑有着和成人大约相同数量的连接。儿童到了3岁时，他们大脑某些特定区域的连接已经增长了2~3倍。这种增长也不会持续很久，因为大脑不久就将这些成千上万的小分支修剪了，儿童大约到了8岁时，大脑中连接的数量又回到成人的标准。\n在青春期，整件事又重新开始，神经狂热地生长后又被愤怒地修剪回去，直到上高中时，孩子们的大脑开始以成年人大脑的样子安定下来，这个发展过程就像一个双驼峰。从连通性角度看，两岁孩子的大脑相当活跃，之后，十几岁青少年大脑更加活跃。\n皮肤闲话\n一个普通人皮肤重量约为9磅，其表皮细胞实际都处于死亡状态，作用就是为人体内其它细胞遮风挡雨，确保它们正常发挥作用。准确地说，人类露在外面的每一寸皮肤几乎都已经死了。\n大脑不关注无聊的事\n每一刻，你大脑中数以百万计的感觉神经元同时被激发，它们都携带信息，都在试图抓住你的注意力，然而只有少数能成功突破引起你的察觉，其余的或部分或全部都被你忽略掉，你读一句话时，能感觉到胳膊肘在哪儿吗？抓住你注意力的信息被连接到记忆，兴趣和知觉中去了。\n大脑不断扫描感官视野，不断评估事件潜在的兴趣或重要性，对重要事件给于额外的注意力。不管你是谁，大脑对以下问题都非常关注:\n\n\n我能吃它吗？它会不会吃我？\n\n\n我可以与他交配吗？他会不会与我交配？\n\n\n我以前见过它吗？\n\n\n没有完全记住危险经历或没有获得足够食物的祖先，不会活得足够长久以传递他们的基因。人脑中有许多专用系统，专注于生殖机会和危险的识别。我们也是极好的模式匹配者，不断评估环境以寻找相似之处，也更容易记住我们认为过去曾见过的东西。\n避免多任务处理\n这听起来令人费解，明明大家感知某些情况下大脑在进行着多任务处理，如一边走路一边说话，读书时心跳如常，钢琴家左右手同时演奏作品，确实，这就是多任务处理。\n我们这里说的多任务谈的事大脑集中注意力的能力，注意能力无法多任务操作。从生物学角度来讲，我们没有能力同时处理多个注意力丰富的输入。大脑自然地按顺序将注意力集中，在概念上，一次只能注意一件事。\n\n将序贯化的大脑强行带入多任务环境，就像是试图把右脚塞到左脚的鞋子一样。\n\n心流的重要性\n研究表明，一个人如果在工作过程中被打扰，那么他需要比原来多50%的时间才能完成任务，不仅如此，他出错的几率增加了50%。大脑每次转换任务时需要的那零点几秒。\n开车打手机者在紧急情况下要比不打手机者慢半秒踩下刹车，且在紧急情况后，要比不打手机的人需要更长时间才能恢复到正常的速度。80%的事故都发生在司机某种形式分心的3秒钟里，增加任务切换量就是增加事故的风险。开车打电话的人相比较注意力集中的司机可错过发现的50%以上的视觉线索，除了酒后驾车的人以外，开车打手机的人更容易出交通事故。\n沟通的建议\n人们最常见的沟通错误是什么？讲话的人谈了太多的信息，对于听众来说，没有用足够的时间将说话者所讲的点滴内容串连起来，就像被强制喂食的鹅，很少消化。大多数专家对他们要谈的话题如此熟悉，导致他们忘记作为一个新手是什么样子的了。\n大脑它喜欢层次结构，在处理细节之前需要先处理含义，要点，核心概念，实验表明这种方式能将听众理解力提高40%。\n10分钟注意力\n9分59秒后，观众的注意力开始准备下降到零，需要继续给听众下饵。饵料要能触发情感，无论哪种情感都很管用。\n注意力习惯的文化差别\n不同的环境带来不同的期望，文化对人类注意力的影响也很重要，亚洲城市人十分关注视觉景象的背景，对前景目标和背景之间的关系也十分关注，而美国城市人不同，对背景的感知要弱得多，这可能会影响如何认知某一特定的商务营销报告或学术讲座。\n总结\n良好的注意力总是对应着良好的学习，它改善了个体阅读材料的记忆结果，改善了写作，科学，数学方面的准确性和清晰程度。如果教师无法抓住学生的兴趣，知识就不会被存入学生的大脑数据库中。\n我们无法对无聊的事情集中精神，大脑的注意力聚光灯一次只能集中在一件事情上，不能多任务处理。与记住细节相比，我们更善于参照模式以及提炼事件的含义。\n情绪唤起有利于大脑学习，听众会在讲座开始的10分钟后走神儿，不过你可通过讲故事或制造一个富含情绪的事件来抓住听众的注意力。\n短时记忆\n我们强大的记忆给我们提供了巨大的优势，也是为什么我们身体柔弱，却可以在如此拥挤的星球上成功立足的原因。\n编码提取，分类分布式存储\n表述性记忆的生命周期可被分为四个连续的步骤：编码，存储，检索和遗忘。当信息进入大脑，它被逐个切成不连续的碎片，并在我们的脑子里四处飞溅，来自不同感官的信号被记录在大脑的不同区域，信息一进入大脑的瞬间被立刻被分成碎片并被重新分配。\n当你看一幅构图复杂的图片：\n\n你的大脑会立即将图画中的对角线从垂直线条中提取出来，把它们存放在大脑的单独区域。\n对于颜色也以同样的方式处理\n如果图片是动态的，其运动的事实也将被提取，并储存在一个不同于存放静止图片的另一个地方。\n\n实证分散存储的病例\n\n一位妇女一个特定区域发生中风后，她失去了书面填写元音的能力。每个字母都有自己的存储空间，不过该名妇女放元音的地点是空的。中风破坏了她大脑中某种连接通路，恰恰与录像机记录事情的原理完全相反。是不是难以置信，这个世界在我们看来似乎是一个整体，元音辅音竟是被分别记录的特征。\n\n大脑中没有什么记忆的中心天堂，在那里记忆可以被无限次地检索，相反，记忆遍布于皮层的表面。研究数据表明，人类大脑中并没有一个与计算机类似的硬盘驱动器，大脑每个区域对记忆都有各自不同的贡献，记忆存储是一个合作性质的活动。\n记忆坐在感知旁\n由于大脑中存储某一事件记忆的地方，也是最初被用于感知学习事件的区域。在学习时刻，学习者利用越多的脑结构就意味着安装了越多的门把手，日后学习者更容易回忆起记忆的信息。\n大脑对某个特定刺激越集中注意力，关于这个刺激物详细的信息就会被大脑编码并保留，日后能被记起的大多数事件，决定性都发生在学习的最初时刻（取决于最初几秒钟），我们在记忆的最初时刻对其编码得越精细，记忆就越牢固。如果你能复制你在记忆某个事情时的周围环境，你可以提高记起这个事情的几率。\n长期记忆\n\n海马专门负责将短时记忆转换成长期形式。短期转长期取决于有规律的重复\n\n记忆检索机制\n理顺为两个通用的模型：\n\n一个是被动想象的图书馆。在图书馆模式下，接到检索命令后馆藏内容被带进自觉意识，这样记忆就被检索了。这种温和的过程有时被称为再生检索。\n另一个是主动想象的犯罪现场。每个现场都有一个福尔摩斯，检查了现有的部分证据，然后，基于推理和猜测，侦探重建了案发现场，即重建了记忆（基于零散的数据重建事实）。\n\n哪个模式才是正确的？\n\n\n两个都是，使用哪个检索系统可能取决于被搜寻信息的种类以及从最初记忆形成至检索之时过去了多长的时间。\n\n\n实际上，你青少年时代编码形成的记忆与你成年时的回忆很少有相似之处。\n\n\n\n在一次学习结束后相对较早的一段时间（几分钟到几个小时到几天），检索系统允许我们对某一记忆再生出一个相当具体和详细的账目，可比拟为图书馆模式。\n随着时间推移，我们逐步切换到福尔摩斯风格的检索模式。\n\n极易被修改的记忆\n为了使一个故事连贯，大脑会乐于插入一些虚假的信息。\n在一个事件发生之后，立即思考或讨论这件事，有助于增强对这一事件的记忆，甚至能决定形成记忆的种类。这种趋势对执法专业人士极为重要，说明了为什么在一场犯罪发生后，尽可能让证人立刻提供信息具有十分重要的意义。\n\n\n大量的记忆在最初接触被记忆材料后的一或两个小时就消失了，这种记忆丧失可以通过有意的重复大大减少。记忆很像水泥，需要大量的时间才能形成永久的形式，虽然它一直都在忙着硬化，但人类记忆极易被修改。\n\n\n对于现实，大脑只给了我们一个近似的见解，因为他把新知识同过去的记忆混在了一起，并把新知识，旧记忆当成一个事物存储在一起。\n\n\n遗忘的作用\n\n遗忘对我们发挥自身其他方面的能力起着非常重要的作用，助于我们可以将事件区分优先次序。如果我们给那些与我们生存无关的事件与我们生存息息相关的事件同样的优先权，那么它们会占据我们的认知空间，造成浪费。我们将不重要的记忆变得不稳定，从而忘掉它们。\n\n与生存无关的事情占据认知空间是一种浪费，我们学了一堆讨生活用不上的知识记不住也是一个道理\n\n\n大部分的记忆在几分钟之内就消失了，不过那些度过了脆弱期的记忆随着时间的推移在逐渐增强。\n\n重复的功效\n使长期记忆变得更可靠的方式是，将新的信息逐步输入大脑并在固定的时间间隔温习这些信息。\n重复和记忆之间的关系式很清楚的，如果你想将来的回忆尽可能鲜活，那么就在固定时间间隔，有意将自己反复暴露于更精致的信息之下。\n\n如果距离期末考试只有一周的时间，你打算对某一科目复习十遍，那么在一周时间将十次复习间隔开进行，要比一股脑将十次复习挤在一起进行效果要好得多。\n\n我们应该像看待增强免疫力的疫苗那样看待学习，注射第一针疫苗后，要在半年或一年后进行第二三针的补注。所以学习也应以一年或半年为基础，对信息的关键点进行重复。\n神经信息传递实验\n突触前的神经元为老师，突触后的神经元为学生，老师神经元的目的就是将信息（本质上是电子的）传递给学生细胞。\n据实验观察，90分钟没有得到相同的信息，学生神经元兴奋水平将消失，就像重置了。如何将初始兴奋转换成一种长期形式呢？那就是一段时间后，信息要被重复。实验中，每隔10分钟刺激一下，共三次，老师神经元和学生神经元之间的关系开始发生变化，在得到越来越少输入，就可以引起学生越来越强烈的输出。这种很像谈恋爱是不？\n突触固化所需的时间间隔是以分钟和小时为单位衡量的，数据坚实的表明，在学习过程中重复至关重要。\n记忆硬化的等待时间\n\n\n\n几年~10年\n\n\n10年后，记忆就不受海马体损伤影响，在之前，海马一直与该记忆形成有关\n\n\n\n一旦一条信息被长期存储，需要多长时间它才能被转变成完全稳定的状态呢？换个方式来问：需要多长时间海马才可以与表层脱离关系？答案是：几年时间。\n如果海马参与了所有的记忆能力，那么海马的彻底摘除应破坏所有的记忆能力，但事实并不是所有的记忆被清除了。当某一事件被大脑长期存储后，在超过10年的时间里，海马一直与该事件的记忆形成有关。10年之后，不知怎地，记忆指派到另一个区域，不受海马脑损伤影响。在很多年里，海马一直紧紧抓着新形成的记忆痕迹，不是几个月，是几年，甚至是10年或者更久（长期记忆在海马和大脑皮层间的双向交流中形成，直到海马切断了与皮层之间的联系，记忆才被固定在皮层中）。\n系统固化，是将不稳定的记忆转变成持久形式的过程，这一过程可能需要几年的时间才能完成，在这段时间里，记忆是不稳定的。\n睡得好，大脑才会转得好\n虽然大脑没有遵从生物能量学的原则去很好地控制的行为（它不能真实的停工），不过身体的其它部位在睡眠过程中真的是休息了。\n大脑在睡眠期干什么活\n大脑似乎根本就没有睡着，在我们认为的“休息”期，大脑却处在令人难以置信的活跃之中，与它处于完全清醒时相比，睡眠期间大脑显示出更有节律性的活动。真正休息期出现在最深睡眠阶段，即无快速眼动睡眠阶段，不过它只占总睡眠周期的20%左右。\n如同小白鼠一样，人类似乎在夜间慢波睡眠阶段回放日间的学习经历/内容，但与小白鼠不同的是，更多的情绪刺激记忆似乎在睡眠周期的不同阶段反复重放。\n是否有可能我们需要睡觉的原因仅仅是为了暂时关闭外部世界，让我们能把更多的注意力资源转移到认知上来？\n清醒与睡觉的拉锯战\n大脑中有两股同由细胞和化学物质构成的战斗力量，它们处于持续紧张的战斗状态中，一股力量试图让你睡觉，而另一股力量试图让你清醒。\n人体拥有一系列生物钟，全部由大脑中各个分散区域控制，为我们觉醒和睡眠经历提供了一个有节奏的时间表。每时每刻都有两种力量在你的体内斗争：\n\n一支军队由神经元，荷尔蒙和其它各种化学物质组成，目的就是近一切力量让你保持清醒。\n有一支同样强大的军队在抵制它们，这支军队同样由脑细胞，荷尔蒙及各种化学物质组成，目的就是尽一切可能让你睡眠。\n\n这是一场奇怪的，甚至自相矛盾的战争。一支队伍控制战场的时间越长，越有可能在接下来失利。每支军队都因为自主行事而筋疲力尽。\n即使你生活在洞穴里，这个过程也会发生。昼夜觉醒系统和恒定睡眠驱力之间每天的胜利投降循环是可以预测的。\n生物钟模式\n百灵鸟\n大约每10个人中就有1个是百灵鸟型，中午前后头脑最为敏捷，一般不需要闹钟，通常在早上6点之前自己醒过来，他们在傍晚时候就感到昏昏欲睡，晚上九点左右就已经上床睡觉了\n猫头鹰\n10个人中有2个是猫头鹰型，在下午6点左右头脑最为敏捷，傍晚时分工作效率最高，很少在凌晨3点前睡觉，需要闹钟在早上将其叫醒。一整天都在一杯一杯喝咖啡以保证自己在工作时候头脑清醒，晚时型的个体在一生中积累了大量的“睡眠债务”。\n蜂鸟型\n百灵鸟型和猫头鹰型只覆盖了30%左右的人，其它多数人可称为蜂鸟型。\n有问题型\n一天只需要四五个小时睡眠的人，应该被认为患有健康失眠。\n生物钟在年龄段的变化\n学生在他们的青少年时代（13-19岁）会暂时转变为更多的猫头鹰时型，睡眠荷尔蒙（如褪黑素）在青少年大脑中含量最高，这些孩子自然趋势就是睡得更多，特别是在早上的时候。\n随着年龄的增长，我们需要的睡眠量减少了。\n白天的小憩\n需要多长时间的睡眠，以及什么时候睡觉，在这个方面人人都不同，但人类经常需要小睡一会儿，尤其在下午小睡一会儿的生物性驱动力人人都有。\n一些学者认为，夜间的长时间睡眠加上中午的短时间午休代表了人体最自然的睡眠行动。\n睡眠的化学作用\n睡眠缺失会损伤人的注意力，执行功能，工作记忆，情绪，数学能力，逻辑推理甚至运动灵巧性。\n如果一个30岁健康成年人连续6天睡眠被剥夺（只睡4个小时），他身体部分的体能化学水平很快下降，变成了60岁老人的水平。如果他们恢复到原来正常的睡眠时间，还需几乎一个星期左右的时间，这些体能才能恢复到他们30岁时的正常水平。\n压力会损伤你的大脑\n对人的身体来说，剑齿虎，高潮和火鸡肉汁看起来非常相似，被唤起的生理状态表现出既紧张又愉快的特点。\n压力伤害记忆能力\n大脑中的海马是保存人类记忆的要塞，其表面镶嵌有皮质醇探测器，使海马对压力信号极为敏感。\n如果压力过于严重或持续时间太长，就会影响到学习。高应激性成年人的成绩比低应激性成绩差50%，具体来说：压力会伤害表述性记忆（你可以描述的一些事情）和执行功能（与解决问题有关的某种类型的思考能力），而这些能力是在学校和职场表现的出类拔萃所必需的能力。\n\n戴安娜王妃因车祸去世当晚与她同车的保镖，直到今天，还完全回忆不起来车祸发生前后几个小时内的事情，这是对严重创伤的一个典型反应。\n与这个反应相比，症状稍轻的健忘，在人群中很常见。如今大多数人都在承受着不是十分严重，但却非常普遍的压力。\n\n皮质醇与BDNF\n有这样两个分子：一个是恶棍，一个是英雄。恶棍就是皮质醇，是成分混杂的糖皮质激素的一部分，可成为压力荷尔蒙。由肾上腺分泌，肾上腺像屋顶一样覆盖在肾的上方，对神经信号极其敏感，它们好像曾经是大脑的一部分，不知什么原因掉了下来，落在了人类的肚子里。应激激素可以断开神经网络，阻止海马体产生全新的神经元。\n大脑似乎意识到了这一切，所以不仅为我们的故事安排了坏人，也安排了一个英雄。就是脑源性神经营养因子BDNF，像一个配备有神器肥料的常备军，在敌对行动面前，保持着神经元的存活和生长。\n长期应激的其它坏处\n长期处于慢性应激刺激下的人更容易生病，很多人是经常生病。\n你的身体的防御系统通过释放肾上腺素和皮质醇，对严重的，短暂的危险做出即刻的反应。慢性应激，如家庭中的矛盾，严重损害我们身体的防御系统，因为我们身体的防御系统进化之初只是为了处理短时的压力反应。\n在慢性应激下，肾上腺素在你的血管壁上造成伤痕，会导致心脏病发作或引起中风。而皮质醇会伤害海马的细胞，从而削弱你的学习和记忆能力。\n抑郁症\n抑郁症是对一系列思维进程失去管理的表现，其中包括记忆，语言，定量推理，流体智力和空间感知，这串名单很长。对个体而言，最坏的压力是你感觉对问题失去了控制，感到束手无策，无依无靠。除非你亲身体验抑郁，否则这些特征没有一个是你所熟悉的。\n\n流体智力（Fluid Intelligence）是一种以生理为基础的认知能力，如知觉、记忆、运算速度、推理能力等。 流体智力是与晶体智力相对应的概念，流体智力随年龄的老化而减退。 而晶体智力则并不随年龄的老化而减退。\n晶体智力主要指学会的技能、语言文字能力、判断力、联想力等\n\n家庭情绪的重要性\n学生在学校成绩的最大预言者原来竟是学生在家里的情绪稳定性。生活在焦虑家庭环境的儿童，学习成绩无法和那些无忧无虑孩子的学习成绩相提并论。父母冲突越严重，对子女学习成绩的影响也就越大。\n职场压力数据\n每年5.5亿个工作日旷工中，有一半的旷工跟压力大有关。压力的类型，职业激励和厌倦之间的平衡性以及员工家庭的生活情况，这三件事情关系到一个工作场所员工承受的压力是否过大。\n大脑喜欢多重感觉的世界\n更多感觉，更多留存\n我们通过感官获得某一件事情的信息，将其翻译成电子信号（一些来自视觉，一些来自听觉等），然后将这些信号发送到大脑的不同区域，接着对发生的一切重建，最后大脑对整件事件有了认知。\n大脑似乎部分依赖过去的经历，以决定如何将这些信号整合，所以两个人可能对同一件事情产生完全不同的认知。\n我们感官就是被进化成要在一起协同工作的模式，这意味着同时激发各个感官可能让我们学得更好。\n嗅觉直通车\n气味具有唤回记忆的不寻常的力量，也许是因为嗅觉信号会绕过丘脑直奔自己目的地的缘故，这些目的地中，就包括那个被称为杏仁核的情绪主管者。\n视觉是最有力的感官\n视觉胜利\n在我们的进化历程中，充盈着文字的广告牌以及Word从来就没占过主导地位，占主导地位的是树木和猛兽。视觉对我们如此重要，我们的祖先通过视觉发现威胁所在，找到大部分的粮食供应，发现生殖机会。\n我们的嗅觉和色觉为了争夺进化控制权进行了激烈的战斗，约60%与嗅觉有关的基因在这次神经战争中被永久地损伤了，在我们大脑拥挤的零和世界中，有些东西必须放弃。\n视觉是目前我们最重要的感觉器官，占去大脑一半的资源。我们所看到的，仅是大脑告诉我们应该看到的，并不是百分百准确。\n我们并非在用眼睛看，而是在用大脑看\n大脑篡改了来自两只眼睛的信息，它进行了亿万次的计算，然后为你提供一个它认为最好的猜测。我们生活在一个三维的世界，但是光线以二维的形式投射在我们的视网膜上。要准确地描绘世界，大脑必须对这个差别进行处理。我们两只眼睛分别给了大脑两个视野，他们将图像颠倒着，反着投射给大脑。大脑被迫进行猜测。\n\n出现在左眼视网膜上的图像和出现在右眼视网膜上的图像是不同的，两只眼睛协同工作才能设法向大脑提供足够的信息，确保大脑看到一个非跳跃的现实画面（单眼分别开闭看到的图像位置是不完全相同 ）。\n\n大脑根据什么做出或部分做出这些猜测呢？根据你对过去某一件事的经验，大脑在收到的信息中坚决地插入许多假设后，将它的发现交给你细读。\n\n有时候接受截肢手术的人感觉得到他们的肢体仍然存在，即使他们看不见，有时患者感到被截去的肢体被冻结在一个固定位置，有时他们还会感觉到幻肢的疼痛。\n\n文字的图像化\n我们阅读的时候，都会尝试在心里将文字传达给我们的内容进行想象。文字只是邮票，它将包裹送来等我们打开。\n大脑的性别差异\nX染色体与大脑很有关\n居住在X染色体的1500个基因，许多基因与我们的大脑功能有关，从语言能力，社会行动到某些类型的智能，研究人员称 X染色体为认知“热点”。\n女性在说话和处理语言信息时往往同时使用大脑的两个半球，而男性主要使用一个半球。女性大脑左右半球之间有厚厚的神经纤维联系，而男性的联系则较稀薄，这就好像女性还有一个备份系统，而男性没有。\n成年时已发展成型的谈话风格直接源于我们在儿童时代就已固化的同性之间的影响。\nX染色体双份镶嵌\n男性只有一个x染色体，所以他们需要获得x染色体上每一个基因，女性却有双倍的数额，然而多并不一定就意味着好，你需要一杯面粉时你加了两杯，事情可能会像一个不愉快的方向发生变化。\n如何处理这多出一份的x染色体呢？研究人员发现不存在优先选择的情况，完全是一个随机事件，有些细胞选择妈妈提供的x染色体上，他们相邻的细胞又选择爸爸提供的x染色体上。这意味着女性胚胎中的细胞是一副复杂的活性与非活性的妈妈爸爸X基因镶嵌画。X染色体失活不会出现在男性中间，因为必须从妈妈那里获得X染色体。\n从X染色体角度说，所有男人都是妈妈的乖乖男，女孩的情况完全不同，她们的基因更复杂。\n火星与金星\n女女\n艾米丽，你渴吗？对这种语言协商，艾米丽知道她的朋友想要什么？\n她答到：不知道，你渴了？\n随后两人进行了一次小讨论，看彼此是不是都口渴极了，需要停车去买些水。\n男女\n几天后，这名女性和丈夫一起驾车出去，问丈夫：你渴吗？\n他答道：不，我不渴。\n新娘很生气，因为她想停车去喝些水。丈夫也很生气，因为她没开门见山直接说出她的想法。\n生化解释\n男女大脑在结构上和生化上都是不同的，男性的杏仁核大，合成五羟（qiǎng）色胺–别名血清素的速度快，但我们不知道，这些差别是否具有重要意义。\n对急性应激，男性和女性的反应不同：女性激活左半球的杏仁核，并记住情绪的细节；男性激活右半球的杏仁核，并记住要旨。\n我们是天生的探险家\n动物自带镜像神经元\n婴儿是指导我们如何学习的榜样，他们不是被动地对环境做出反应，相反他们通过积极的观察，假设，实验和总结对周围世界进行探索。因为“镜像神经元”的天然存在，我们在婴儿时期就可识别和模仿某些行为，这也是我们动物学习能力的一些来源。人类的镜像神经元分布在大脑的各个地方。\n儿童曾是榜样\n作者记下过他的一段触动，他曾试图让二岁的儿子跟上他行进轨迹，快点走，像大多数有些时间表的成年人那样举止行事，但二岁的儿子根本不理会，在去幼儿园路上看路上的鹅卵石，看野草，看蚂蚁组队抬食物前行，看泥球，看一颗生锈的螺丝钉，几个闪亮的油迹斑点。没有选择作者只好停下来，看着他的小老师，突然作者很好奇被一个念头击中，不知道其上次用了15分钟只走20几步远是什么时候的事情了。\n好奇心\n就像上面的例子一样，好奇心本身才是最重要的。儿童求知的渴望是一个纯粹的驱力，它像钻石一样清澈，纯洁，且像巧克力一样吸引人。如果儿童能一直保持好奇心，他们将会继续利用其自然天性去发现，去探索。\n婴儿会被物体的物理特性所迷倒，小于1岁的婴儿用他所有的感官武器系统地分析每一个物体，用手摸它，用脚踢它，试图把它撕开，贴在耳朵上，塞进嘴巴里，把它交给你，一心一意地收集着物体的信息。婴儿的惊人认知能力以及从语言习得到需要大量主动玩耍的时间，无需揠苗助长。\n对于小孩子来说，发现给他们带来喜悦。像令人上瘾的药物，探索让他们产生进行更多探索的需求，感受更多的快乐。孩子会将这种探索的渴求一直延续到学校。随着儿童渐渐长大，他们发现，学习不仅给他们带来快乐，且还给他们带来对世界的掌控。\n好奇心的拦路虎\n当然这种积极向上的进程也有可能被打破，使这个探索过程和儿童自己变得麻木。如从一年级开始，孩子们就知道，教育就意味着得高分。他们开始明白，获取知识，不是因为知识很有趣，而是因为它可以让他们得到某些东西。\n知识的魅力与“为了取得高分，我应该知道些什么”相比，倒成了次要的。这虽是一个很糟的事情，或许大范围发生。但好奇的本能是如此强大，总会有些人（少量精英）能克服社会不良信息，理智地一步一步探索下去。\n插播一段非本书的内容\n\n面对知识时保持自由，获取知识时保持纪律\n\n自由和纪律是教育的两个要素。自由和纪律这两个原则并不对立，在儿童的生活中应该调节自由与纪律以适应儿童个性的自然发展。大脑也不是自由到底，需被塞满各种陌生思想。用有序的方式掌握的知识，对正在发育的大脑是天然的养料[3]。\n成人也在探险进步\n随着年龄的增长，我们确实失去了某些突触连接（有学者估计，单神经元损失一项每天就接近3w个），但成人大脑中某些与学习有关的区域，还在继续产生着新的神经元，表现出和新生儿神经元一样的可塑性。成人的大脑在其一生中都保持着改变其结构，并应对经验而运转的能力。\n后记\n中文翻译不太好，或者不太走心，很多生硬口语不通的表达。\n书从京东买的二手的，好像之前都转过两手，夹了两个不同地方的人员名片，好在没人划线过。在Meland陪娃的时候花了一天看完，7.23日录完草稿，8.1日重整完毕。\n大脑的特征\n能耗\n作为人体的耗能大户，供能机制跟不上，导致\n\n注意力难以长时间保持，需要安排情绪唤起\n大脑喜欢层次结构，简化抽取关键信息，而不是善于长时间处理细节\n\n现在普遍承认的是，人脑遵循的模式就是简化抽取关键信息，然后对比历史信息相似性给予分类标签，使得我们记忆扩展到联想，判断速度非常快，在进化中得以幸存。人脑的配置像：量子CPU+超级显卡+小号运存+超级内存的组合\n\n智慧增长，知识就会消减，因为细节会被原则包容。---- 阿弗烈·诺夫·怀特海\n\n记忆\n\n信息在人脑皮层分布式存储，跟录像机是不同的机制\n记忆的硬化可能需要10年时间，在硬化之前需要海马体的辅助\n记忆在不断的改写过程中\n\n多模态\n进化过程中神经系统在资源争抢，人类是明显的视觉突出，占大脑50%的信息感受资源\n\n猫听觉灵敏+大近视眼，动态视力强，秒处理图像帧数很高，色彩能力弱\n狗嗅觉突出+听觉+色彩能力弱，静态视力也不如人类，动力视力好过人类\n\n与大模型的差异\n\n\n人脑含有总数在1011（千亿） 个神经元，1014（百万亿）突触链接 [1]\n\n\nGPT3.5是175B参数；GPT4多模态参数，资料显示达到1800B（1.8万亿），说是由8个220B参数的专家模型构成\n\n\n大模型规模还未达到临界点，突破看上去是迟早的事，起码技术大佬们是这么看\n人脑和模型的能效对比\n运行成本\n\nAlphaGo早期的版本是耗能很高的，1202个CPU、176个GPU和100多名科学家，另一边是一个人脑和一杯咖啡。就拿CPU 150W、GPU 300W来算的话，芯片功率是$1202150+176300=233100W$（233千瓦），这还不包括空调费，网络等费用。\n一个人每天消耗2000大卡热量，而大脑占用了其中的20%左右，对于围棋这种极耗脑力的运动，我们尽可能地提升一些，按25%算吧，旗手的功率大概25w。只对比运算中枢的话， AlphaGo差不多是李世石的一万倍功率，但时隔一年，硬件设施已极大不同，与柯洁对弈的AlphaGo已经在Google定制4块TPU上运行起来，功耗下降了1千倍，共160w，基本已经和人类同一数量级，进步的令人咋舌。\n训练成本\n\n\nAlphaGo2.0抛弃人类棋谱，自我对弈3000小时，大概花销1642万人民币\n\nAlphaGo每下一盘棋，大概 4 小时，消耗 3000 美元，每小时 750 美元。$30007507.3$=1642万人民币\n\n\n\n柯洁从出生到成才差不多到20年，消耗的能量和训练费用应该不到1642万人民币，所以还是AlphaGo训练消耗高\n\n\n长期来看，人类棋手的成本更高\n从出生起到退役的年龄，人类的大脑总共消耗的能量是持续的，少量的，最大的成本，还是来自于对一个专业棋手的培育，包含训练、陪练、参赛等费用（吃的食物， 他取暖烧掉的碳，避暑用过的空调，消费的商品的生产）都是成本。\n长远看是一个人的消耗高，算法可以复制人却不能，这就是人工智能的优势\n生而为人\n**独立思想的人格最为可贵！**我们要的不是「听话vs叛逆」的二极管思维。如果大家都没有独立思维的能力，那么我们今天被 AI，硅基生命替代又有什么关系呢。同时让人类去思考恰恰是一件难事，因为思考本身会去摧毁你过去的一些神经元链接，是一个拓扑结构的（微）重建过程，在消耗能量的过程中你会头疼（缺氧），生而为人最宝贵的就是大脑不被束缚，大脑是自由的。\n参考\n1.中科院神经科学研究所， 感觉整合与行为研究组 ↩2.知乎，AlphaGo 和人类棋手比起来谁消耗的资源更多? ↩3.新浪， 面对知识时保持自由，获取知识时保持纪律 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"让子弹飞","url":"/%E8%AE%A9%E5%AD%90%E5%BC%B9%E9%A3%9E.html","content":"\n整部电影暗线是20世纪的斗争史，现在大家都清楚知道。《让子弹飞》之后，姜文的其他作品都难以达到与《让子弹飞》并肩的高度，相信对于一个导演来说是痛苦的。\n主线人物\n汤师爷是一群人，六子是千千万万的年轻人，黄老爷代表的也是一个群体。\n只有张麻子对应一个人，一生致力于建成一个社会公平人人平等的新世界，一个晚年落寞时孤独的理想主义者。消灭一切压迫人剥削人的制度，改变历史周期律，远大的抱负注定获得不了多数人的理解。誓与私利和特权做斗争，只成门户私计，贫富分化是他最不愿意看到又是能想象到的情况。但他身体老了，已无力做更多了。在他之后，伟大谁来继承，情怀拿什么承载。他预见了未来，想要提前改变阻止，可阻力太大，战友就像张麻子的那些兄弟。\n他跟 FDR 一样，像是已一己之力改变历史走向的车夫，不过很可惜历史的铁轨早已铺设完善，他们的努力也仅是让轨道发生一点扭曲罢了。已有之事必再有，已行之事后必再行，一定还会有跟他们一样的人去尝试寻找通向更远方的路。\n\n\n给我在一起不高兴吗，高兴，就是有点不轻松。兄弟们不想在过回苦日子了，成功了就想跟张牧之分道扬镳，50年代的那帮战友们是不是也感同身受。上海不香吗，干嘛当麻匪？黄四郎在，我们一起干，兄弟们付出了惨痛代价，黄四郎没了呢，就是坐江山分江山。张牧之是理想主义者，他的价值观是大同，这也导致他最后成了孤家寡人；他的兄弟们是现实主义者，他们的价值观是钱和权。\n群众\n\n张麻子说得对，谁赢了他们帮谁，大部分人就是盲流，也不在乎逻辑，不在乎数据，也看不见未来，只在乎凑热闹和捡便宜，连上衣都不配穿的底层劳苦大众在分享胜利果实，但往往他们又捡不到便宜。\n结局\n\n腐朽的马拉列车拉着老三他们向右转了方向，上海，大乐园，好地方。老三们成了新的黄四郎。Over。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["影视"]},{"title":"诗文鉴赏","url":"/%E8%AF%97%E6%96%87%E9%89%B4%E8%B5%8F.html","content":"\n记下这些诗句，部分是源于情操优美，大部分是旁注的细节打动了自己，原来学的时候只是诵读，并不关心一些细节，当看到书里的仔细旁注时，忍不住想记下来给自己增添点营养，孩子在学习古诗文时也多一些趣味 。\n很多诗篇凝练了非常多的典故，因为信息量太大，要记录的太多就跳过了，感叹古人的记忆力，学成名家背后的心血非同寻常，成功多不是偶然的。\n民本篇\n《山坡羊·潼关怀古》-元·张养浩\n峰峦如聚，波涛如怒，山河表里潼关路。望西都，意踟蹰。伤心秦汉经行处，宫阙万间都做了土。兴，百姓苦；亡，百姓苦！\n《观祈雨》-唐·李约\n桑条无叶土生烟，箫管迎龙水庙前。朱门几处看歌舞，犹恐春阴咽管弦。\n修身篇\n《国语引古谚语节选》-先秦·无名氏\n从善如登，从恶如崩\n\n《题竹石画》-清·郑板桥\n咬定青山不放松，立根原在破岩中。千磨万击还坚劲，任尔东西南北风。\n用人篇\n已亥杂诗四首-清·龚自珍\n浩荡离愁白日斜，吟鞭东指即天涯。落红不是无情物，化作春泥更护花。\n九州生气恃（shì）风雷，万马齐喑究可哀。我劝天公重抖擞，不拘一格降人才。\n创新篇\n《小雅·鹤鸣》-先秦·无名氏\n\n《诗经》中“雅”部分，分为大雅、小雅，合称“二雅”。雅，雅乐，即正调，指当时西周都城镐京地区的诗歌乐调。小雅部分今存七十四篇\n\n鹤鸣于九皋（gāo），声闻于野。鱼潜在渊，或在于渚（zhǔ)。乐彼之园，爰（yuán）有树檀，其下维萚（tuò）。他山之石，可以为错。\n鹤鸣于九皋（gāo），声闻于天。鱼在于渚，或潜在渊。乐彼之园，爰（yuán）有树檀，其下维榖（gǔ）。他山之石，可以攻玉。\n\n九皋：深泽。渚：水边。爰：于此。萚：酸枣树。错：磨刀石。榖：构树，树皮可造纸。攻：雕琢。\n这是一篇呼唤周宣王招募重视民间人才的诗篇。檀树下又有小酸枣树和构树，郁郁葱葱，层次分明。他山之石可以攻玉，原比喻别国的贤才可为本国效力，后比喻能帮助自己改正缺点的人或意见。\n\n《论诗五绝》-清·赵翼\n李杜诗篇万口传，至今已觉不新鲜。\n江山代有才人出，各领风骚数百年。\n劝学篇\n《冬夜读书示意子聿（yù）》-宋·陆游\n古人学问无遗力，少壮工夫老始成。纸上来得终觉浅，绝知此事要躬行。\n\n子聿（yù）: 陆游的小儿子\n\n《观书有感二首》-宋·朱熹\n半亩方塘一鉴开，天光云影共徘徊。问渠那得清如许，为有源头活水来。\n昨夜江边春水生，艨艟（méng chōng）巨舰一毛轻。向来枉费推移力，此日中流自在行。\n\n艨艟：牛皮包裹可防火，开弩窗矛穴，以浆为动力\n向来：从前过去；中流：江河中央。\n第一首揭示知识不断更新和发展，才能永葆活力。第二首揭示事物发展需要条件和时机，顺势发展，才能收到明显的效果\n\n《老黄牛》-近代·臧克家\n块块荒田水和泥，深耕细作走东西。老牛亦解韶光贵，不待扬鞭自奋蹄。\n\n诗歌学会会长，毛泽东诗词研究会名誉会长。\n70年代，作者和作协的同事一起到湖北咸阳向阳湖干校劳动，72年因心脏病获准提前返京，用四个多月时间写出《向阳湖》，《离别干校》，《老黄牛》等五十七首诗篇，暗合五七干校，总名《忆向阳》，赞美干校劳动生活，表示，人回到北京，心还在咸宁，身离心不离，生死不相忘。\n\n明志篇\n《咏寒松》-南北朝·范云\n修调拂层汉，密叶帐天浔。凌风知劲节，负霜见直心。\n\n修：长。层汉：高空。天浔：天河。\n唐朝李世民曾在《赠萧瑀（yǔ）》一诗中化用为：疾风知劲草，板荡识诚臣。\n\n《一枝花·不服老》-元·关汉卿\n我是个蒸不烂，煮不熟，捶不扁，炒不爆，响当当一粒铜豌豆。恁子弟每谁教你钻入他锄不断、斫（zhuó）不下、解不开、顿不脱、慢腾腾千层锦套头？我玩的是梁园月，饮的是东京酒，赏的是洛阳花，攀的是章台柳。我也会围棋、会蹴鞠（cù jū）、会打围、会插科、会歌舞、会吹弹、会咽作、会吟诗、会双陆。你便是落了我牙、歪了我嘴、瘸了我腿、折了我手，天赐与我这几般儿歹症候，尚兀自不肯休！则除是阎王亲自唤，神鬼自来勾。三魂归地府，七魄丧冥幽。天哪！那其间才不向烟花路儿上走。\n\n子弟每：子弟们。斫：砍。顿不脱：挣不脱。锦套头：美丽的圈套，比喻妓女迷惑嫖客的手段。\n梁园：梁苑，西汉梁孝王的东苑。东京：汴州。章台柳：唐-韩翃（gōng）姬妾柳氏，以艳丽称。安史乱起，被番将沙咤（zhà）利所劫，韩寄柳诗曰：章台柳，章台柳，昔日青春今在否？纵使长条似旧垂，亦应攀折他人手。后柳氏被唐将用计夺还归韩。后以“章台柳”形容窈窕美丽的女子。\n打围：打猎，因需多人合围。插科：逗笑。咽作：歌唱。歹症候：坏毛病。兀自：犹自。烟花：犹“风月”，指情爱。\n双陆：古代一种博戏，双方各执棋马十五枚在十二道的棋盘上投骰（tóu）行马。因横道左右各六，两两相对，故名双陆。\n关汉卿带有自述心志性质的套曲，此段是尾声。表达了大无畏的叛逆精神，很有点老愤青的味道，风流狂诞之间，显示出生命勃发的血性和活力。\n\n《咏梅九首之一》-明·高启\n琼姿只合在瑶台，谁向江南处处栽？雪满山中高士卧，月明林下美人来。\n寒依疏影萧萧竹，春掩残香漠漠苔。自去何郎无好咏，东风愁寂几回开。\n\n只合：只应。漠漠：密布貌。何郎：南朝诗人何逊，青年时即以文学著称，为当时名流所称道。\n诗人的这组梅花诗共九首，这是首部第一首。毛泽东很喜欢高启的梅花诗，曾为查找这首诗的全文，一天给秘书连写三封信，当时他只记得“雪满山中高士卧，月明林下美人来”这两句，后来又想起前两句。找到后毛用草体书写了全诗，并在右起处大大写上了“高启”二字，还注明：“字季迪，明朝最伟大的诗人”\n高启，明洪武初参修《元史》，后回乡隐居。苏州知府修复府治旧基，高为其写了一篇《郡治上梁文》，文中有虎踞龙蟠四字，加上府治旧基为元末张士诚旧址，被疑为歌颂张士诚，也受株连，腰斩而亡。\n\n《述志》-清·洪秀全\n手握乾坤杀伐权，斩邪留正解民悬。\n眼通西北江山外，声振东南日月边。\n展爪似嫌云路小，腾身何怕汉程偏。\n风雷鼓舞三千浪，易象飞龙定在天。\n\n西北：苏轼《江城子-密州出猎》会挽雕弓如满月，西北望，射天狼。东南：泛指太平天国控制的区域。日月边：日月是自称，指天国周围。汉程：汉即银河，银河的航程。易象：易经中的卦象。飞龙在天：九五，飞龙在天，利见大人。九五之爻（yáo）在上乾卦中居于中的位置，称“得中”，才能够总卦来看，处于奇数的位置，阳爻处于奇位称“得正”，故九五爻既得中有得正，大吉大贵，暗示事物处于最鼎盛时期。如果用于开创王业则指能称帝王，所以皇帝有“九五之尊”之称。\n虽然是个失败的农民运动结局，但此诗畅述洪的政治抱负，气魄很大。尤其是第三句展爪腾身，的确一时很狂。\n\n《狱中赠邹容》-近现代·章炳麟\n邹容吾小弟，被发下瀛州。快剪刀除辫，干牛肉作糇（hóu）。\n英雄一入狱，天地亦悲秋。临命须掺手，乾坤只两头。\n\n章炳麟比邹容大18岁，故称小弟。两人一起1903年因“苏报案”（苏报发表《驳康有为论革命书》，《革命军序》）被捕入狱，但邹容于1905年病死狱中，而不是被杀，这纠正了我一贯的错觉，觉得那段历史宣扬的英雄都是被反动派杀害的。\n被发：披发，说尚未束发成年，形容邹容年轻。瀛洲：日本。糇：干粮，在地方用语中也形容吃过咸的食物之后引起的干渴和声音嘶哑。掺手：执手牵手。\n《革命军》一书由章炳麟作序，一起被捕，作者以为这次怕不能活着出去了，所以写了这首诗，最后一句夸张地说：我们这两颗头颅里思想不朽，将充满两个世界。邹容也留下一首和诗《狱中答西狩》，写的也不错，“西狩”是章的笔名。\n\n《自嘲》-鲁迅\n运交华盖欲何求，未敢翻身已碰头。破帽遮颜过闹市，漏船载酒泛中流。\n横眉冷对千夫指，俯首甘为孺子牛。躲进小楼成一统，管他冬夏与春秋。\n\n华盖：古星名，属紫微垣（yuán），共16星，在五帝星座上，今属仙后座。旧时间迷信，以为人的命运中犯了华盖星，运气就不好。\n孺子牛：齐景公曾口衔绳索扮成牛，让儿子牵着玩。一统：统一，戏言全国统一。\n1932年，郁达夫请自己哥哥吃饭，并请鲁迅和柳亚子作陪。柳亚子见面向鲁迅索字，鲁迅随后写了这首诗给他，用冷幽默的手法对自己面临的压力进行了嘲讽，对宵小的蔑视，旷逸高远的文人情怀。\n\n《诉衷情·江山靠谁守》- “毛泽东”\n当年忠贞为国愁，何曾怕断头？如今天下红遍，江山靠谁守？业未就，身躯倦，鬓已秋，你我之辈，忍将夙愿，付与东流！\n\n根据毛身边人员的评说，此作没有人证「手稿」物证证据，均不存在，实为伪托而作，74~75毛仍思想清晰，但语言表达有恙，很多时候都是靠书写文字传递信息。此作起初就是以传抄的方式在民间先传播，思想格调和平仄押韵硬伤都不符合毛的风格和水平。\n诉衷情 为词牌名，陆游也有一首名篇，诉衷情·当年万里觅封侯\n\n清廉篇\n《卜算子·咏梅》-宋·陆游\n驿外断桥边，寂寞无开主。已是黄昏独自愁，更著风和雨。\n无意苦争春，一任群芳妒。零落成泥碾作尘，只有香如故。\n\n著：&quot;着&quot;的本字，糟逢的意思。作者用梅花比喻自己高阶脱俗的美好情操。1961年毛泽东读陆游这篇词，曾反其意而作：风雨送春归，飞雪迎春到。已是悬崖百丈冰，犹有花枝俏。俏也不争春，只把春来报。待到山花烂漫时，她在丛中笑。\n\n齐家篇\n《郑风·女曰鸡鸣》-先秦·无名氏\n女曰：“鸡鸣”，士曰：“昧旦。子兴视夜，明星有烂。””将翱将翔，弋凫与雁。”\n”弋言加之，与子宜之。宜言饮酒，与子偕老。”琴瑟在御，莫不静好。\n“知子之来之，杂佩以赠之。知子之顺之，杂佩以问之。知子之好之，杂佩以报之。”\n\n昧旦：又叫昧爽，破晓之际。烂：灿烂。翱，翔同义。戈：用带绳子的箭射。言：助词，无实意。加：射中。宜：烹饪，烹调。御：用，这里指弹奏。来：音“劳“，关怀体贴。杂佩：连缀在一起的各种佩玉。顺：和顺。问：赠送。\n整首诗以对话的形式（开始催男子起床劳作，之后是女子慰劳爱人的情景），展现了二人的家庭分工和性格特点。除夫妻对话，还有诗人旁白，整首诗就像一幕短剧，生动逼真，情趣盎然。\n与子偕老也出现在诗经中另一首《击鼓》中，”死生相阔，与子成说，执子之手，与子偕老“，这里是战士之间的情谊，女曰鸡鸣中的与子偕老，才真正是对爱情的誓言和美好期许，只是语言的壮阔优美不及击鼓而已。这也是为什么此处记录此首诗的出发点。\n\n《赴戍登程口示家人》-清·林则徐\n力微任重久神疲，再竭衰庸定不支。\n苟利国家生死以，岂因祸福避趋之。\n谪（zhé）居正是君恩厚，养拙刚于戍卒宜。\n戏与山妻谈故事，试吟断送老头皮。\n\n1942年，林从西安启程赴伊犁，写诗留别家人，宽慰家人不要为自己担心。\n哀庸：近哀朽，衰老无能。苟利国家：《左传·昭公四年》春秋时郑国大夫子产改革军赋，受到时人诽谤，子产说，何害，苟利社稷，死生以之。\n谪居：古代官吏贬官降职到边远外地居住。养拙：才能低下而闲居度日。戍卒：戍守边疆的士兵。山妻：隐士之妻，这里指自己的妻子。\n老头皮：为年老男子的戏称。宋真宗闻隐者杨朴能诗，召对，问：此来有人作诗送卿否？对曰：臣妻有一首云：更休落魄耽杯酒，切莫猖狂爱咏诗。近日捉将官里去，这回断送老头皮。上大笑，放还山。东坡赴诏狱，妻子送出门，皆哭，坡顾谓曰：子独不能如杨处士妻作一首诗送我乎？妻子失笑，坡乃去。\n\n爱情篇\n《古怨歌》-汉·窦玄妻\n茕（qióng）茕白兔，东走西顾。\n衣不如新，人不如故。\n\n窦玄相貌不凡，天子命他与原配妻子分手，将公主嫁给他。窦妻写诗一首给丈夫。茕茕：孤独的样子。顾：回头。后两句表白心迹，劝告人们珍惜旧情，句短情长，动人心弦。\n\n《李延年歌》-汉·李延年\n北方有佳人，绝世而独立。一顾倾人城，再顾倾人国。\n宁不知倾城与倾国？佳人难再得！\n\n李延年，武帝时音乐家，善歌习舞，长于音乐创作。作者未用华丽辞藻修饰，精短简洁，留给人无限的遐想空间，却将女子容貌之美夸耀到了极致\n\n《离思》-唐·元稹(zhěn)\n曾经沧海难为水，除却巫山不是云。取次花丛懒回顾，半缘修道半缘君。\n\n元稹:与白居易同科及第，早年和白同提倡新乐府。\n曾经：曾经经历过。沧海：大海。难为：不会看在眼里。除却：除了。\n巫山：因战国宋玉《高唐赋》序的典故，巫山被用为男女幽会的典实。\n取次：经过。缘：因为。\n诗人用典故和比喻，把对亡妻的思念表达得深切婉转，缠绵绮丽。第一句化用孟子的”观于海者难为水“，第二句化用宋玉的”巫山之阳，高山之阻，旦为朝云，暮为行雨“。经历过大海，对溪流就不会看在眼里。除了巫山上那朵最美的云彩，别对云彩都不是我的所爱。\n\n《一剪梅·舟过吴江》-宋·蒋捷\n一片春愁待酒浇。江上舟摇，楼上帘招。秋娘渡与泰娘桥，风又飘飘，雨又萧萧。\n何日归家洗客袍？银字笙调，心字香烧。流光容易把人抛，红了樱桃，绿了芭蕉。\n\n作者生卒年不详，宋灭后隐居太湖里的竹山。吴江就是苏州市吴江区。帘：酒帘，酒家的标志。秋娘渡，泰娘桥：吴江沿途地名。\n银字笙：乐器名。调：调奏。心字香：心字型的熏香。\n上阙漂泊孤独，下阙团聚温馨。流光容易把人抛用拟人的手法，显得生动形象。红绿两个字从形容词变成动词用，将看不见的时光变为看得见的的突出意向\n\n报国篇\n《贺新郎·送胡邦衡待制赴新州》-宋·张元干\n梦绕神州路。怅秋风、连营画角，故宫离黍。底事昆仑倾砥柱。九地黄流乱注。聚万落、千村狐兔。天意从来高难问，况人情、老易悲如许。更南浦，送君去。\n凉生岸柳催残暑。耿斜河、疏星淡月，断云微度。万里江山知何处。回首对床夜语。雁不到、书成谁与。目尽青天怀今古，肯儿曹、恩怨相尔汝。举大白，听金缕（lǚ）。\n\n胡邦衡：胡栓，因上书请斩秦桧遭到报复，被贬新州（今广东新兴）。离黍：为感叹亡国之典。《诗·王风·黍离序》：周大夫行役于宗周，过故宗庙宫室，尽为禾黍，闵周室之倾覆，彷徨不忍去，而作诗也。昆仑倾砥柱：这里把昆仑天柱和黄河砥柱合在一起来说。九地黄流乱注：比喻金兵的猖狂进攻。聚万落，千村狐兔：描写中原经金兵铁蹄践踏后的荒凉景象。天意：帝王的心意。老易：老子与周易的并称。如许：像这样。南浦：南面的水边，后常称送别之地。\n耿：明亮。断云：片云。儿曹：犹儿辈。恩怨相尔汝：彼此亲昵的称呼，表示不拘形迹，紧密无间，出自唐韩愈的《听颖师弹琴》。大白：酒杯名。金缕：金缕曲词牌的简称，也即贺新郎。\n本词深受毛委员的喜爱，词表达了对友人的深切关心和强烈深沉的爱国情感。当董必武同志去世后，毛说原诗结尾太伤感，遂将最后两句改为”君且去，休回顾“录制而听。\n\n梅岭三章-陈毅\n断头今日意如何？创业艰难百战多。此去泉台招旧部，旌旗十万斩阎罗。\n南国烽烟正十年，此头须向国门悬。后死诸君多努力，捷报飞来当纸钱。\n投身革命即为家，血雨腥风应有涯。取义成仁今日事，人间遍种自由花。\n\n陈毅，1919赴法勤工俭学，1922年回国。历任红四军政治部主任，军委书记，红22军军长，长征后，留在江西苏区，领导三年南方游击战争。抗日时期，任新四军代军长，军长。解放战争时期，任三野司令员兼政治委员。49年后任华东军区司令员兼上海市长，国务院副总理兼外交部部长等。\n梅岭：即大庾（yǔ）岭（五岭之一）。泉台：地狱。国门：即城门，借伍子胥”扶吾眼县吴东门之上，以观越寇之入灭吴也“的典故，表示自己即使牺牲，也要头悬国门眼看敌人最后灭亡；也引自汪精卫的《狱中杂感》这首诗的最后一句，可叹年轻的汪行刺清摄政王入狱，后来却思想变化堕为汉奸。\n36年冬天，陈毅的游击队被蒋嫡系部队46师戴嗣夏部围困在驻地梅岭，戴有”碉堡专家“的称号，他让碉堡上山口，进山坑，进逼陈毅部队的根据地。白天警犬追踪，夜里探照灯搜索。陈毅因腿伤又加患病，行动不便，被困20多天，在苦虑不得脱身的情况下，写下了这三篇留衣底作为绝命诗。而就在他写下这三首诗的当天，46师罕见地停止了搜剿行动（因为发生了西安事变，戴急急撤走），梅岭之围旋解，此真乃命也。\n\n交游篇\n重赠卢谌（shèn）（节选）-西晋·刘琨\n功业未及建，夕阳忽西流。时哉不我与，去乎若云浮。朱实陨劲风，繁英落素秋。\n狭路倾华盖，骇（hài）驷（sì）摧双辀（zhōu）。何意百炼钢，化为绕指柔。\n\n刘琨：青年时曾与好友一起练武，留下了”闻鸡起舞“，”枕戈待旦“等典故，曾任并州刺史，后被猜忌而杀。\n西流：比喻时光飞逝。与：等待。若云浮：像浮云一样。朱实：红的果实。繁英：繁花。素秋：霜秋。华盖：华丽的车盖。辀：车辕。何意：谁能想到。绕指柔：缠绕在手指上的柔软物品。\n这是作者临终前写给自己部下和好友卢谌的一首诗，本书节选其中最后几句。诗的前半部分回忆了自己率兵的战斗经历和悲凉心情，叙述了前人受冤蒙困的遭际，最后这部分书法自己一生的感慨，表达了心中的忧愤和无奈。险恶的世道就像狭窄的路，翻了我的车，惊了我的马，折断我的车辕。谁能想到我这铁打的硬汉，如今变成人家指间玩弄的柔丝。\n\n送杜少府之任蜀州-唐·王勃\n城阙辅三秦，风烟望五津。与君离别意，同是宦游人。海内存知己，天涯若比邻。无为在歧路，儿女共沾巾。\n\n王勃由广州渡海赴交趾（今越南）时不禁溺水而逝。杜少府：作者的朋友。少府：就是县尉，处理武事。唐代时候县官称为令，以下有一名丞，处理文事。明府就是对县令的尊称，赞府是对县丞的尊称，少府就是对县尉的尊称。\n城阙：指长安城城楼。辅：拱卫。三秦：关中之地。风烟：风烟迷茫之中。五津：岷江的五个渡口，泛指蜀州。宦游：外出做官。无为：不必。歧路：岔路。儿女：像小女儿一样。沾巾：泪水沾湿衣服。\n古人送行，常常是送到大路的岔口才分手，所以他们有时候把临别成为”临歧“，沾巾就可以用来代替哭泣。此送别诗被评”兴象宛然，气骨苍然“\n\n题李凝幽居-唐·贾岛\n闲居少邻并，草径入荒园。鸟宿池边树，僧敲月下门。过桥分野色，移石动云根。暂去还来此，幽期不负言。\n\n贾岛早年出家为僧，后还俗。他的诗多描写自然风物，注重炼字炼句，是”苦吟派“诗人。李凝：贾岛的朋友。邻并：邻居。分：分享。移石动云根：仿佛山石在移动。幽期：隐逸的期约。负言：违背约定。这首诗描写了探访隐士李凝的过程。\n推敲的典故：贾岛在僧推和僧敲月下门上一时拿不定主义，在驴背上一边走一边想，不小心冲撞了吏部侍郎的韩愈的侍卫队。最后韩愈说：我觉得用敲字好，因为晚上的门一般会门闩栓住，直接推不开，所以用敲字更符合生活常识。另外，敲字是开口音，读起来比较响亮，且敲门声更反衬夜晚的宁静和孤寂。贾岛认为韩愈的意见很对，就欣然采纳了，推敲作为认真修改诗文的代用词流传下来。\n\n和董传留别-宋·苏轼\n麤（cū）缯（zēng）大布裹生涯，腹有诗书气自华。 厌伴老儒烹瓠[hù]叶，强随举子踏槐花。\n囊空不办寻春马，眼乱行看择婿车。 得意犹堪夸世俗，诏黄新湿字如鸦。\n\n这首诗是苏轼罢官凤翔签判赴汴京，途经长安时，与朋友董传话聚临别留赠董传的。\n董传：苏轼在陕西凤翔认识的友人，当时董很贫困。麤：同粗。麤缯大布：粗丝绑发，粗布批身。裹：经历。生涯：人生的境遇过程。诗书：诗经和尚书，泛指学问。气：精神气度。华：丰盈而实美，即不俗。老儒：年长学究。瓠叶：诗经小雅的篇名，开头两句为”幡幡瓠叶，采而亨之“。举子：参加考试的读书人。踏槐花：参加科举考试，唐代有槐花黄，举子忙的俗语，槐花落时就是举子应试的时间。寻春马：引用孟郊的诗，春风得意马蹄疾，一日看尽长安花。择婿车：唐代进士发榜，例于曲江亭设宴，其日，公卿家倾城纵观，高车宝马，于此选取佳婿。这指董传会不屑参加科举。得意：春风得意，即黄榜得中。世俗：适应大众的眼光。诏黄：即诏书。字如鸦：诏书上的黑字像乌鸦一样。\n身上包裹着粗布劣衣，但只要胸中有学问气质自然光彩照人。不喜欢陪着老儒一块清淡，过”烹瓠叶“那样的苦日子，决定随从举子们参加科举考试。口袋里没有钱不能置办那看花的马，但也会看看令人眼花缭乱的择婿车，考试得中仍可以向世俗的人们夸耀一番，诏书上如鸦的黑字写着我的名字。\n这首诗对友人的才华进行了鼓励，认为他胸有诗书，气质不俗，同时劝慰他改变自己的个性去参加科举考试以适应社会习惯，并祝愿他高中实现理想。\n\n哲思篇\n登鹳雀楼-唐·王之涣\n白日依山尽，黄河入海流。欲穷千里目，更上一层楼。\n\n鹳雀楼：旧址在今山西永济市，原有楼三层，经常有鹳雀落在上面，所以得名。楼前望中条山，下临黄河，后被河水冲沫。\n\n感巫州荠菜-唐·高力士\n\n力士谪黔中，道至巫州，地多荠而人不食，因惑之，作诗寄意。\n\n两京作斤卖，五溪无人采。夷夏虽有殊，气味都不改。\n\n这首诗没什么特别，只是作者特别。所以做记录。作者路过湖南怀化，见遍地荠菜而生苍凉感慨，也以荠菜比喻无论环境顺逆不改初心\n高力士：唐著名太监，本名冯元一，唐潘州人（今广东省高州市城区），幼年入宫由高延福收为养子，改名高力士，官至骠骑大将军等。传说曾为李白脱靴。\n两京：长安洛阳。五溪：怀化境内有5条重要支流，古称五溪。采，谐音”睬“，语义双关。夷：指穷乡僻壤。夏：中原繁华之地。\n\n乌衣巷-唐·刘禹锡\n朱雀桥边野草花，乌衣巷口夕阳斜。旧时王谢堂前燕，飞入寻常百姓家。\n\n乌衣巷：在今南京市东南，秦淮河两岸。三国时，吴国曾在这里驻军，士兵都穿黑衣，所以后来地名就叫乌衣巷。东晋时的王导，谢安等大官就住在这里。朱雀桥：秦淮河上一座桥的名字，在乌衣巷附近。\n\n浪淘沙令·伊吕两衰翁-宋·王安石\n伊吕两衰翁，历遍穷通。一为钓叟一耕佣。若使当时身不遇，老了英雄。\n汤武偶相逢，风虎云龙。兴王只在笑谈中。直至如今千载后，谁与争功。\n\n伊吕：指伊尹和吕尚。伊尹是夏朝末年的奴隶，后受到商王成汤的赏识重用，帮成汤攻灭夏朝。吕尚又叫姜尚，俗称姜太公。他起初非常穷困，年老时才被周文王赏识，辅佐武王灭商。穷通：穷愁潦倒，官运亨通。汤武也就是商汤王周武王。\n此咏史词抒发了作者建功立业的信心和怀才不遇的苦闷。也揭示了英雄能不能成就一番事业，除了自己努力之外，还要看机遇和外部环境，表达了对许多优秀人才被埋没的同情和感慨。说人世间如果出现了圣明的君主，谈笑间就能完成兴建国家的大事业。\n\n钓台题璧-郁达夫\n不是樽前爱惜身，佯狂难免假成真。曾因酒醉鞭名马，生怕情多累美人。劫数东南天作孽，鸡鸣风雨海扬尘。悲歌痛苦终何补，义士纷纷说帝秦。\n\n郁达夫浙江富阳人，左翼作家联盟发起人之一，42年化名赵廉避居苏门答腊，45年在苏门答腊失踪。\n钓台：严子陵祠。劫数东南：指日军进攻上海。鸡鸣风雨：用诗经中”风雨如晦，鸡鸣不已“之意。\n海扬尘：用道家神仙麻姑典故，以东海扬尘比喻世事变化巨大，也就是沧海桑田的另一种不流行说法。\n义士：指《战国策》中记载的战国时期齐人鲁仲连义不帝秦事。\n表达是一个特定历史年代里知识分子的心路历程，开始讲自己不喝酒不是害怕伤身体，而是怕平时佯狂娱世的姿态成了真心态，过去曾经走马章台，诗酒风流，今后将要关心国家兴亡，投入反对强秦的队列里去了。诗的原题挺长《旧友二三，相逢海上，席间偶谈时事，嗒然若失，为之衔杯不饮者久之，或问昔年走马章台，痛饮狂歌意气今安在耶，因而有作》，全诗中”曾因酒醉鞭名马，生怕情多累美人“一联最为有名，常用来形容潇洒脱俗的风流之士。\n\n胸襟篇\n将[qiāng]进酒-唐·李白\n君不见黄河之水天上来，奔流到海不复回。君不见高堂明镜悲白发，朝如青丝暮成雪。人生得意须尽欢，莫使金樽空对月。天生我材必有用，千金散尽还复来。\n烹羊宰牛且为乐，会须一饮三百杯。岑夫子，丹丘生，将进酒，杯莫停。与君歌一曲，请君为我倾耳听。钟鼓馔[zhuàn]玉不足贵，但愿长醉不愿醒。\n古来圣贤皆寂寞，惟有饮者留其名。陈王昔时宴平乐，斗酒十千恣[zì]欢谑[xuè]。主人何为言少钱，径须沽取对君酌。五花马、千金裘，呼儿将出换美酒，与尔同销万古愁。\n\n将[qiāng]:愿，请。高唐：华丽的建筑。且为乐：姑且寻欢作乐。会须：应当。岑夫子：岑勋。丹丘生：元丹丘，都是李白的好友。与君：为你们。馔[zhuàn]玉：精美的食物。陈王：指陈思王曹植。平乐：平乐观，宫殿名。在洛阳西门外，为当年显贵的游乐场所。恣：无拘无束。谑：玩笑。沽：买。千金裘：泛指贵重的衣物。将出：拿去。\n这一篇劝酒词，大约作于天宝十一年，作者跟好友岑勋多次到嵩山元丹丘处聚饮，把饮酒过程和心态描写的神采飞扬，激情洋溢，豪迈的笑声背后是不被重用的孤独和寂寞。\n\n狱中题壁-清·谭嗣同\n望门投止思张俭，忍死须臾待杜根。我自横刀向天笑，去留肝胆两昆仑。\n\n张俭：东汉人，被诬逃亡时躲避到亲友家中，结果连累多人。投止：止步。杜根：东汉人，曾上书要求邓太后归权安帝，太后命人将他装袋摔死，执法者将他放走，太后死后，杜根又重获官职。横刀：刀架脖颈。留：指像杜根那样得到帮助活下来。诗人也有一份生的渴望，希望有人能像救杜根一样在最后关头帮助自己。\n\n沁园春·雪-毛泽东\n\n除了最后的岁月《诉衷情-江山靠谁守》里「业未就，身躯倦，鬓已秋」，毛的诗词里看不到一个&quot;愁&quot;字，全是改天换地，战胜一切。梅花欢喜漫天雪，冻死苍蝇未足奇\n\n北国风光，千里冰封，万里雪飘。望长城内外，惟余莽莽；大河上下，顿失滔滔。山舞银蛇，原驰蜡象，欲与天公试比高。须晴日，看红装素裹，分外妖娆。江山如此多娇，引无数英雄竞折腰。惜秦皇汉武，略输文采；唐宗宋祖，稍逊风骚。一代天骄，成吉思汗，只识弯弓射大雕。俱往矣，数风流人物，还看今朝。\n\n惟余莽莽：只剩下无边无际的白色。大河上下：指黄河上下游。银蛇：比喻披着白雪的树木被风摇动的样子。原：指黄土高原。蜡象：白蜡做成的象。红妆素裹：旭日照在雪地上的景致。妖娆：这里指美好。多娇：美不胜收。折腰：膜拜，倾倒。文采风骚：这里都指文化底蕴。天子骄子：汉朝人称匈奴单于为“天之骄子”，后来称被北方某些少数民族君主为天骄。往矣：过去了。\n词写于1936年2月，借雪景抒情，表现了目空万古的豪放气概。上阙辞采斑斓，下阙怀古激昂奔放。45年8月抗战胜利后，重庆谈判期间柳亚子敬赠毛泽东七律一首，同时向他索句。毛便把9年前的这首词赠给柳亚子，并致信云：初到陕北看见大雪时，填过一首词，似与先生诗格略近，录呈审正。柳亚子得到词后称赞道：展读之余，以为中国有词以来第一作手，虽苏辛未能抗（相比），况余子乎？不久他就作了一首《次韵毛润之初行陕北看大雪之作》的和词，并把这首和词和毛词一并交给《新华日报》，要求同时发表。《新华日报》因未得到毛本人意见的缘故，不便同时发表，只好发表了柳亚子的和词。而这首《沁园春·雪》却因在报社内部披露，并被传抄除去。柳的和词一发表，立即引起社会的广泛关注，人们很想拜读毛的原作。当时重庆民营报纸《新民报晚刊》副编辑吴祖光最后把三个抄本凑合起来，终于得到一份完整的词，在11月14日该报副刊《西方夜谈》的显著位置隆重推出，立即轰动山城，传颂一时。\n有人说这词在引经据典和文学造诣上不如两宋豪放派，但两宋诗词再豪放再浪漫，都是夸张和想象，靠做梦，且结尾大部分是泄气的，即使是念奴娇赤壁怀古，最后几句也是早生华发，落脚点也是人生如梦，一尊还酹江月。外表的豪放和内里的软弱形成反差，但教员是不会给你泄气的，俱往矣，数风流人物，还看今朝。永远在晦暗无光的世界里给你点燃希望的火种。国家博物馆将沁园春雪手迹放在古代中国展厅出口，就是让你在看完整个封建王朝的历史，看到最后是一个七零八落白茫茫一片结局时，有人以一种绝对的自信挺身而出，挽狂澜于既倒，扶大厦之将倾，这种极致的个人英雄主义靠的不是动画里虚构的神来之力，而是靠人的智慧、谋略和胆识，相比于苏轼因乌台诗案贬谪黄州这种个人人生起伏，教员面对的情形是一个有着上下五千年文明历史的民族正危在旦夕，在那种极致不利局面下展现出的没有一丝怀疑的自信，哪个豪放派可与之比肩？\n\n人民解放军占领南京-毛泽东\n钟山风雨起苍黄，百万雄师过大江。虎踞龙盘今胜昔，天翻地覆慨而慷。宜将剩勇追穷寇，不可沽名学霸王。天若有情天亦老，人间正道是沧桑。\n\n钟山：俗名紫金山，这里指南京。苍黄：巨大变化的意思，原出《墨子》感叹染丝者过程。慨而慷：慷慨激昂的意思，曹操《短歌行》：慨当以慷。剩勇：形容胜利的解放军的士气。沽名：博取名誉。天若有情天亦老，借用唐李贺《金铜仙人辞汉歌》中的诗句，这里意思是说苍天如果有感情，也会因为那黑暗统治而心力憔悴。人间正道：人世变化的自然规律。沧桑：社会变革。\n\n满江红·和郭沫若同志\n小小寰球，有几个苍蝇碰壁。嗡嗡叫，几声凄厉，几声抽泣，蚂蚁缘槐夸大国，蚍蜉撼树谈何易。正西风落叶下长安，飞鸣镝。\n多少事，从来急；天地转，光阴迫。一万年太久，只争朝夕。四海翻腾云水怒，五洲震荡风雷激。要扫除一切害人虫，全无敌。\n\n62年冬，刚走出三年困难时期的中国，又迎来中苏关系紧张。中苏文章争斗中，郭沫若填《满江红》一词，表达中国人民面对反华势力，团结一致坚持斗争的必胜信念，本写的理直气壮富有激情，但无意间似乎把反动派的声势过分看重了些，沧海横流，天垮下来，世披靡矣，未免言过其实。毛的和词就是针对这一点而发的。\n蚂蚁缘槐：《南柯太守传》喝醉梦见自己在大槐安国当了驸马，醒来才知是梦，后来在屋后发现一个白蚁穴，还建有王城，原来这就是“大槐安国”。\n鸣镝：响箭，汉时匈奴冒顿单于用来发号施令。\n《满江红·沧海横流》：沧海横流，方显出，英雄本色。人六亿，加强团结，坚持原则。天垮下来擎得起，世披靡矣扶之直。听雄鸡一唱遍寰中，东方白。太阳出，冰山滴；真金在，岂销铄？有雄文四卷，为民立极。桀犬吠尧堪笑止，泥牛入海无消息。迎东风革命展红旗，乾坤赤。·\n披靡：草木倒伏\n\n山水篇\n次北固山下-唐·王湾\n客路青山外，行舟绿水前。潮平两岸阔，风正一帆悬。海日生残夜，江春入旧年。乡书何处达，归雁洛阳边。\n\n作者洛阳人，玄宗年间进士，生卒年不详，现存诗10首。海日生残夜，江春如旧年 被看作是初唐，中唐诗界限的标志。\n次：停泊。北固山：现江苏镇江北，三面被长江环绕。客路：旅途。平：涨满。风正：风顺。残夜：夜将尽的时候。江春：长江两岸的春天。\n春雪融化水涨岸，江潮看起来与两岸持平，此时一帆高挂，顺风而下，显得江面更加宽阔了，春天迈着脚步走进过去的时光，诗人想把这份心情写入家信，寄送到故乡亲人身边。\n\n宣州谢脁[tiǎo]楼饯别校书叔云-唐·李白\n弃我去者，昨日之日不可留。乱我心者，今日之日多烦忧。长风万里送秋雁，对此可以酣高楼。蓬莱文章建安骨，中间小谢又清发。俱怀逸兴壮思飞，欲上青天揽日月。抽刀断水水更流，举杯浇愁愁更愁。人生在世不称意，明朝散发弄扁[piān]舟。\n\n宣州：今安徽宣城市一带。谢脁楼：又名北楼，谢公楼，南齐诗人谢脁任宣城太守时所建。饯别：以酒食送行。校书：官名，即校书郎，负责朝廷的图书整理工作。叔云：李白的叔叔李云。酣高楼：在高楼上开怀饮酒。蓬莱：海中仙山，这里指东观。东汉时的藏书室东观被称为“道家蓬莱山”。建安，汉献帝的年号。小谢：指谢脁。清发：清新俊逸。逸兴：超逸豪放的意兴。壮思：豪壮的情思。揽：摘取。弄扁舟：指隐逸江湖。\n2016年1221日解放军报评论员在《星空浩瀚无比，探索永无止境》一文中也借用李白的俱怀逸兴壮思飞，欲上青天揽日月诗句表达太空之路需要广大航天人续写。虽然这首诗是给叔叔送别，但并没有主写离别之苦，反倒抒发了诗人自己心中的愁苦，不愿与其它势力同流合污的决心和风骨。\n\n附录\n李白生平\n因爹是富商，所以五花马千金裘，呼儿将出换美酒，千金散尽还复来。但也因为从商的家庭背景，导致在那个时代不能参加科举。\n\n生卒年「701~762」 有说法其出生在中亚，童年在四川度过。母亲不是汉族，是个混血。\n\n最大愿望是当宰相，两次倒插门娶了宰相的女儿（虽是失势的相府）。最后一个妻子是他的迷妹–宗氏，传说曾千金买下他写过诗的一面墙（宗氏信奉道教，二人算是灵魂伴侣，曾去庐山与李林甫之女李腾空结伴修道[1]）。15岁学剑，师从剑圣裴旻（长于剑舞，打仗还是用大刀），一生潇洒，但子女无人管。\n\n杜甫为李白写过15首诗，可谓是粉丝第一人。流传下来的李白有回应3首。可能跟传抄散佚有关。呈现出杜：我爱李白，李：我爱全世界的风貌。\n斗酒诗百篇，相当于多少呢，小斗大约4斤（大斗12斤）相当于4瓶啤酒。\n\n42岁被皇帝请进宫，但主要工作是写歌词。因为人缘差被辞退，玄宗骂他固穷相，意思是难成大器。54岁时安史之乱爆发，56岁参军卷入永王叛乱，因曾救过郭子仪的命，才没被处死，改判流放夜郎，走到白帝城遭遇大赦天下，故千里江陵一日还，轻舟已过万重山，此时58岁的李白得以归家，心里突发畅快，但流放的经历导致身体状况并不好，也步入了人生的最后几个年头。投奔族叔李阳冰，62岁病逝于当涂。\n\n当涂，今安徽马鞍山，儿子伯禽来为其守孝，至李白生前好友范作之子范传正任宣歙观察使，特意去当涂访李白后人。伯禽已亡，其子外出多年未归，伯禽的两女已嫁农夫，进止仍有风范，按其孙女所言李白遗愿「先祖志在青山，顷葬东麓，非本意」，将其迁葬于一心所向的青山，去世55年后与谢脁结为“异代芳邻&quot;\n\n李白一生坎坷，一生都在出世和入世间挣扎，虽名满天下，但没有获得政治上的建树。虽有入世之心，但也正是政治抱负严重超越政治才华而不自知的代表人物。去世一年后，新皇帝代宗登基，为永王平反，召李白为左拾遗（谏官，女皇开创的，从八品上，品级不高，却是天子近臣），可惜李白已无法亲历昭雪。\n杜甫生平\n在明朝才有诗圣一说。他爷爷是唐朝文章四友之一杜审言，外婆是唐太宗的重孙女，妈妈是清河崔氏家的大小姐，可杜甫自己却出生于一个小山村，也是家族没落的代表吧。\n\n当时唐朝人眼中，杜甫没有那么伟大，唐人自己选编的《唐人选唐诗》也没有收录杜甫的诗歌，以李白王维为主流的文坛上，杜甫甚至有些不入流。科举一直没考上，中晚年一直压抑悲惨，但诗文中小家大家都不放弃，推己爱人，心忧天下，是他的文化意义。\n\n7岁能吟凤凰诗，16岁随在郾城当副县长的父亲游洛阳，逛长安，结识了歌手李龟年。\n\n年幼时在歧王李隆范party上见过，相比较李白应没去过歧王府上做客，歧王去世的时候李白刚仗剑出蜀抵达扬州结识孟浩然。歧王作为玄宗的亲弟弟，钟爱诗文音律，不喜政治。睿宗一脉被长期被软禁生活，除了三子李隆基对政治有野心\n\n20岁开始了长达10年的溜达，24岁一心想参加高考，却落榜了，毫不在乎的杜甫继续溜达，浪荡齐赵间，会当凌绝顶，一览众山小。30岁娶了19岁的杨小姐为妻，32岁在洛阳认识谜一样的大哥李白（小李白11岁，此时李白已43），跟李白一起访仙山炼仙丹，还结识了高适。\n35岁长安大雨连绵2个月，李林甫奉旨在全国选拔人才，告别李太白来参加高考，发现是一场闹剧。这年他写下了饮中八仙歌，屡试不中的杜甫拿着自己的诗文开始长达十年的向长安的达官贵人行卷（诗文写成卷轴，投送朝中显贵，以求其推荐給主考官）。39岁向唐玄宗李隆基进献了3篇歌功颂德的大赋，终于等到了一次机会，加入了后备干部名单。\n一等又等了5年，43岁等到一个小职位，嫌小没有去，这年安史之乱爆发，小儿子饿死奉先家中，写下了朱门酒肉臭路有冻死骨。44岁又等到一个仓库保卫科科长的职务，同年带家人逃亡陕西，却被押回长安监狱。夜里想妻子，写下《月夜》，自己想媳妇写成媳妇想自己，后越狱，此刻同期隔壁还关着诗佛王维。45岁去运城冒死投奔唐肃宗，被授左拾遗（副处级），因爱管闲事同年又被贬华洲参军一职，47岁去洛阳探亲，写下了三吏三别。\n49岁辞去参军一职，在朋友高适帮助下，在成都浣花溪旁建好了草堂，过了两年平静生活。写下《春夜喜雨》，《忽闻官军收河南河北》，51岁春写下两个黄鹂鸣翠柳，一行白鹭上青天，这年8月份大风大雨磅礴刮倒茅屋，写下《茅屋为秋风所破歌》。\n53岁在朋友严武的举荐下，在京都挂了一个正处级的虚职，检校员外郎，史称杜工部。\n\n严武接替作为诗人将军的高适，领军作战能力强出一截，重击吐蕃，在高适到任之前就打的吐蕃闻风丧胆。\n严家和杜家是世交，严父与杜甫爷爷同朝为相，不过杜甫比严武年长；高严二人给了杜甫生活宝贵的帮助，二人故去后杜甫在成都也过不下去了\n\n55岁在奉节写下无边落木萧萧下不尽长江滚滚来(千古七绝-登高)。57岁在岳阳写下登岳阳楼，59岁春在长沙的一次宴会上，又遇李龟年写下了，正是江南好风景，落花时节又逢君。此时杜甫身患重病，双耳失灵，冬天坐小船开往岳阳，停靠耒阳，吃了耒阳县长送的牛肉和酒第二天中毒身亡（虚岁59岁, 712~ 770年)。\n终其一生，可说杜甫有快乐的童年，溜达的青年，求官的中年，寄人篱下的晚年，一代诗圣落幕。\n\n在诗歌创作上，杜甫1400多首风格多样，尤其律诗这种艺术形式被其发挥到极致（900多首律诗），是唐代律诗最高成就的代表，《登高》还被称为千古七绝第一。\n律诗对格律有十分严格的要求，一般人根本不敢尝试，杜甫不仅写的很通顺，还各种情景交融，各种用典，内涵丰富。至今运用的成语好多都是来源于他的诗。\n\n高适生平\n最近《长安三万里》（片名来自明代陈子龙的《从军行》，长安代表李白高适心中的理想之地，三万里是他们与理想之间的距离）上映，第一时间去看了。第一主角是高适，也用高适的视角讲了李白的一生，或者说真正的主角是李白。多数考据认为高适小李白3岁（生于704年），可叹唐代诗人唯一封侯的人，事业成就最高的人，连出生年份都未能在史书中直接留下。旧唐书对他的评价：有唐以来，诗人之达者，唯适而已。\n李高杜三人的人生经历，高很坚毅，面对苦难很坚持，不屈不饶，非常贴合普通人的状态。高适祖父高侃为唐代名将，于太宗朝擒突厥车鼻可汗，参与灭高句丽之战，封平原郡开国公，陪葬乾陵。亲父已经落为小公务员，又去世的早，所以作为渤海高氏出身的高三十五（字达夫，因官职又别名高常侍），幼时的生活并不富足，求功名不得经常在老家一呆就是10年。少有口吃，但有一颗以武建功的心，所以一生几次参加军旅生活，不然也不会称为边塞诗人的代表。\n屡次求功名不中，在46岁中了进士，授封丘尉（县公安局长），这点比杜甫在功名路上更有起色。49岁辞封丘尉，任凉州河西节度使哥舒翰幕府任掌书记，52岁转监察御史，佐哥舒翰守潼关。碌碌前半生，然因安史之乱获得了人生的大逆转。\n53岁潼关破，哥舒翰被俘，只身追赶避难的朝廷，给玄宗献策，得到重视，又因李辅国诋毁，将其下放至太子身边做事，不料此举拉近了高适与太子的关系。接着太子即位，同年面对永王叛乱，高适直接被任命为淮南节度使，讨伐永王叛军。此时的李白放弃了庐山清修，正在永王阵营中。二人从朋友站到了对立面，面对李白的求救信，高适没有留下只言片语，这种谋逆罪，对于辛苦半生得到难得上升机会的高适来说，如履薄冰实在是要避嫌，身不由己，在动画中策动郭子仪搭救李白，是一种美好的友情圆场。事实的真相是什么，的确无法得知了，或许因为此事，二人削减了交往的痕迹材料，让我们不禁惋惜。但二人的出身和人生理念，的确是有所别，走出不同的人生境遇选择，也是可以理解的。\n平定永王叛乱后，54岁又受命参与讨安史叛军，56岁任彭州刺史，57岁，改任蜀州刺史，60岁，迁任剑南节度使，但面对吐蕃进攻松 [治所位于今四川阿坝松潘县]，维 [今四川理县]，保 [今四川理县，天宝年间改名过云山郡，动画中有云山城] 三州，高适不能救，61岁被严武所代，迁刑部侍郎，转散骑常侍，进封渤海县侯。62岁正月，卒[704 - 765年]，留有《高常侍集》传世。\n\n动画中云山城一役的广德元年703年前一年，李白已过世\n动画中高适计谋成功功成身退的设计也是创作方的艺术加工，实际为不敌\n\n参考\n1.新华网 才华空前绝后的李白 从生到死都是一团迷雾 ↩","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["文学"]},{"title":"读华为管理哲学","url":"/%E8%AF%BB%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%BA%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html","content":"\n战略思想–以客户为中心\n华为的一个功利集团，一切都是围绕商业利益的。华为文化的特征就是服务文化，因为只有服务才能换来商业利益。\n\n服务的含义是很广的，不仅仅指售后服务，从产品的研究，生产到产品生命终结前到优化升级，员工的思想意识，家庭生活，我们要以服务来设定队伍建设的宗旨。\n\n以客户为中心，以奋斗者为本，长期坚持艰苦奋斗，这三大根本保障就是华为超越竞争对手的全部秘密。\n\n以客户为中心是艰苦奋斗的方向，艰苦奋斗是手段和途径，以奋斗者为本是艰苦奋斗的活力源泉，保持客户为中心的内在动力。\n\n创新\n有价值的创新\n领先半步是先进，领先三步是成先烈\n\n\n超前太多的技术，当然也是人类的瑰宝，但必须牺牲自己来完成。技术先进到别人还没有对它完全认识和认可，以致没有人买，产品卖不出却消耗了大量的人力，物力，财力，丧失了竞争力。许多领导世界潮流的技术，虽然是万米赛跑的领跑者，却不一定是赢家，反而为“清洗盐碱地”和推广新技术而付出大量的成本。\n\n倡导有价值的创新，当你没有技术创新与管理体系的傻投入，就不会有真正的产品与市场的竞争力，就只能靠低价和打价格战，就没有利润空间。产品品质不好是耻辱，企业没利润可挣也是耻辱，从根本上看，利润只能从客户那来，只能加大对客户价值创造能力的投入。\n客户需求创新和技术创新双轮驱动是华为最好的创新指导思想，从工程师创新走向科学家工程师一同创新，我们不仅要以客户为中心，研究合适的产品与服务，且要面对未来的技术方向加大投入，对平台核心加强投入，要占领战略的至高地。\n围绕商业需要\n产品创新一定要围绕商业需要，不准胡乱创新。\n\n贝尔实验室为什么最后垮了，电子显微镜是贝尔实验室发明的，但它的本职是做通信的，它为了满足科学家的个人愿望就发明了这个电子显微镜。发明后成果丢到外面划不来，于是就成立电子显微镜的组织作为商业面的承载。无边界的技术创新有可能会误导公司战略。\n\n聚焦主航道，市场主导应用\n科学家能略宽一点，科学家的创新他们关注技术，愿意怎么想就怎么想（对研究和创新的约束不是无边界的，只能聚焦在主航道上，或者略宽一点），但是他们不能左右应用。技术是否投入使用，什么时候投入使用，我们要考另一个轮子marketing，marketing不断在听客户的声音，今天，明天，未来的需求，才能确定我们掌握的技术该怎么用，以及投入市场的准确时间。\n继承式创新\n一个大公司，最体现降低成本的措施就是资源共享，满脑子大创新的人实在是幼稚可笑的，是没有希望的。坚持在牛粪上长出鲜花来，一步步的延伸。\n饱和攻击\n内部对不确定性的研究，验证，实行多路径，多梯次的进攻，密集进攻，饱和攻击\n人才\n好的人才就值好价格\n要想真正地留住骨干员工，就必须提供有竞争力的薪酬。要让一个公司50%-60%的人是优秀分子，然后在优秀的种子中再选优秀的苗；中间分子20%-30%，让优秀分子来挤压稍微后进的人，这样他们可能也会发生改变。\n员工持股+股权激励\n第一版-内部集资（员工投资行为，吸储）\n90年第一次提出内部持股，其实是内部融资，许诺以税后利润15%作为股权分红。这么干，增加了公司现金流，也绑定了创业团队（股价=1人民币）\n第二版-虚拟股权，重点激励（留人过冬）\n未来的钱就是公司将会赚到的钱，可以提早进入管理系统来激励现有的员工，也就是许诺员工参与利润分享。\n2000后，互联网泡沫破灭，华为经历经济寒冬。员工股权调整成虚拟股权（没有投票权，不能转让出售，离开华为时自动失效），但在原来分红的基础上，把公司净资产的增值部分也拿出来和员工分享（本质就是超额利润分红，增强员工归属和核心团队的稳定，也是不少成长中现金不充裕中小企业的合适之选）。\n\n本质上还是超额利润分红的做法，利润好的公司是可以借鉴的\n\n股权从每股1元变成按净资产定价，还设定了4年的期权行使期限。激励从90年代的“普惠”原则向“重点激励”转变，核心骨干员工配股额度大大超过普通员工。\n第三版-饱和配股\n2008年，全球金融危机，华为又进行了大规模配股，根据不同级别员工设定了配股上限，也叫“饱和配股”，不少老员工因持股已到达上限，没参与本次配股，给新员工持股留下了空间。\n\n饱和率–说白了就是激励后来的潜力年轻人，拒绝人之道的马太效应，贴近天之道\n\n要调整饱和率上限，最直接的办法就是调整职级，要成为&quot;奋斗者&quot;\n\n要签订奋斗者协议才能获得股份，还有很多具体措施去识别\n\n第四版- TUP计划\nTUP- Time Unit Plan 时间单位计划，员工可在5年内享受分红权，5年后享受一次净资产增值权，然后全部清零。按照条件重新配股，彻底解决老员工“躺在功劳簿上睡大觉的问题”\n总结\n\n持股人多，按2019数据，18.8万员工，9.7万人持股（工作一定年限的奋斗者都有机会配股）\n不断强调奋斗者为本的价值观，强调员工间形成差距，承认人的差异性。避免激励的边际效用递减，早期的制度也要适配不定期调整\n虚拟股权的收入占到员工收入很高的比例（1/3以上），是员工无法忽视的，很少有放弃奋斗者资格的\n\n\n给的提示全员持股不要做成普惠的保健因素，而是应该做成向奋斗者倾斜与绩效强相关的激励因素。当然早期不值钱的时候不要搞那么复杂，早期躺在功劳簿上的人也没那么多。\n\n对很多人力资本为主的高科技公司来讲，因同行给员工配股，不给就留不住人。另一方面，给大家发股权好像也没太大激励效果，两难。股权越来越成为一个保健因素，如何变成激励因素，那就要观摩华为的做法：\n全员持股一般问题是钱少，普惠跟绩效关联不大，而华为全员持股是钱多，向奋斗者倾斜，跟绩效强相关，且还会做动态的调整。\n不要完美主义\n对英雄也不要求全责备，要接受有缺点的美，只要过了汶川救灾线，尿了裤子的也是英雄。有一点点成绩的就是英雄，将来才会有千军万马上战场。完人可能做不出大贡献。\n开放-全球化多喝咖啡\n华为过去上一个封闭的人才金字塔结构，现在已炸开金字塔尖，开放吸收宇宙能量，加强与全世界科学家 对话与合作，多与能人喝咖啡，从思想火花中，感知发展方向。\n干部考核–团队利益使命\n不要说考核残酷，有人说我还可以，我们不是仅仅要可以，我们对不同干部有不同要求，你们要思考怎么担负得起这个使命来。如果你的销售额及利润上不去，不是我要拿掉你的官职，你没有利润，薪酬包就小了，不够弟兄们分，在你的领导下，弟兄们都赚不到钱，那不推翻你才怪。你不如真正拿出自己的战斗能力，加强学习，加强对事物 认识，从而找到机会点。\n组织队伍要跟上业务\n解放战争胜利的太快了，为了接管全中国，毛泽东集中了两万营团干部在石家庄建立华北大学，这些营团干部完成训练就分配工作，接管全中国。华为的承接市场和推升发展，也进行一场比较大的组织结构变革，也需要两万营团干部，当然希望一万是将军。\n扩张\n抵御多元化的红舞鞋\n很多公司垮下去，不是因为机会少，而是因为机会太多，选择太多，太多伪装成机会的陷阱，使许多公司步入误区而不能自拔。机会，是炙手可热的战略资源，但并不是所有的战略资源都可以开发成战略产业，有些只能为资本运作和战略结盟提供题材和想象空间。中国企业战略资源本来就不多，战略失误将流失最宝贵的战略资源。\n\n在企业成长和发展的道路上，多元化的红舞鞋的诱惑随处可见，红舞鞋常常披着冠冕堂皇的外衣，或者伴随着高昂澎湃的激情，甚至爱有如泰山压顶的力量之下，被推到企业家的面前。\n\n很多公司的多元化发展，就是利用公司原有的人力物力进行新的行业，例如让船长直接去当机长，结果业务不精，运作成本太高，问题迭出。多元化成功的关键，并不在于技术和金钱，而在于不断改革管理体制。不要总想着做第一第二，不要抢登山头，不要有赌博心理，喜马拉雅山山顶冷得很，不容易活下来。华为最低最高战略都是如何活下来，你活得比别人久，你就是成功者\n民企灵活，高效，在快速发展的时期会有良好表现，但民营资本也容易暴露一些顽疾。一方面在多元化发展的误导下，盲目兼并扩张带来空心化；有些民营资本沉迷于资本运作带来的短期利益，盲目加杠杆导致难以消化。另一方面，战略方向选择上，过于“急功近利”，迷信规模和成本，忽略企业自身可持续发展能力的建设，最终遭遇到周期困境。\n安邦系，明天系已经灰飞烟灭，泛海系已经岌岌可危，复兴和新希望也陷入房地产困局。这些陷入困局的传统民营资本，都难以适应新的经济结构变化和资本市场发展的新形势，需要依靠自己的能力和新的战略获得新的可持续发展空间。\n老老实实种庄稼\n任正非的管理思维中，经常把一些管理模式比喻为种庄稼，任说：”华为要松土，翻新，种子是我们自己种的，外部请来的专家，引进的流程就像投射进来的阳光，如果我们离开这片田地，能从外面捡回来玉米（去旋转起舞），但也许一开始播下的种子（主赛道的核心业务）就死了“\n\n松土翻新，其实也是不断革新，求发展，甚至组织激活。所以这一段，你只取松土翻新这两句，也是可以用在开拓和组织管理领域的。\n\n占领制高点\n具有战略地位的地方就叫制高点，那制高点在什么地方呢，就在10%的企业和10%的地区，从世界范围看大数据流量，在日本，是3%的地区，汇聚了70%的数据流量，在中国，10%左右的地区汇聚未来中国90%左右的流量。怎么抓住机会，战略上要聚焦要集中力量。\n并购\n30年来，华为没进行过任何规模型的资本并购，华为的认知是，买规模就是买问题，这会带来文化冲突和价值观的冲击，以及可能的财务陷阱，更多是要点性并购，对象是尖端的研发类小公司。\n华为的扩张模式\n华为的扩张模式主要是一种贸易式扩张，全球性的市场网络和研发平台。产品的研发需求来自华为，架构由欧美顶尖专家设计，硬件由华为中国团队完成，软件主要由印度科技人才承担，制造主要由富士康公司完成，最后再在华为的全球市场网络进行销售。\n企业经营的辩证法\n经营中不追求完美\n世界是变化的，永远没有精致完美，追求完美就会陷入低端的事务主义，僵化越做越糊涂，且变成小脚女人，怎么冲锋打仗，如我们用完美的观点去寻找英雄，是唯心主义，英雄就在我们身边，天天和我们相处。\n灰度是常态，黑与白是哲学上的假设，反对在公司管理上走极端，提倡系统性思维。在认识事物时，极端的观点，绝对化的观点，一层不变的观点都是不正确的，任正非是深谙唯物辩证法的高手。\n关于系统性思维多说一句\n\n任正非说华为欠缺系统性思维，因为是从小的游击战打过来的，提拔的都是务实的人，没有对务虚的人给予肯定，要转换，慢慢从人力资源机制中形成培养战略家思想家的土壤。\n\n灰度与妥协\n妥协的内涵和底蕴比字面含义丰富的多，懂得它与实践更是完全不同的两回事。\n\n纵观中国历史上的变法，虽对中国社会进步产生了不灭的影响，但大多没有达到变革者的理想。面对他们所处的时代环境，他们的变革太激进，太僵化，冲破阻力的方法太苛刻，如果他们用较长的时间来实践，而不是太急迫，太全面，收效也许会好一些。\n\n变法的失败其实就是缺少灰度，方向是坚定不移的，但并不是一条直线，也许是不断左右摇摆的曲线，在某些时段，还会画一个圈，但我们离得远一些或粗一些看，它的方向仍是紧紧地指着前方。\n在任正非看来，清晰的方向来自灰度。一个领导人重要的素质是方向，节奏。他自己的水平就是合适的灰度。坚定不移的正确方向来自灰度妥协与宽容。\n管理改进\n七反对\n\n坚决反对完美主义\n坚决反对繁琐哲学\n坚决反对盲目创新\n坚决反对没有全局效益提升的局部优化\n坚决反对没有全局观的干部主导变革\n坚决反对没有业务实践经验的人参加变革\n坚决反对没有充分论证的流程进行实用\n\n对抗组织怠惰\n华为最可怕的不是腐败和山头问题，而是惰怠，是组织疲劳，历史是最可怕的敌人。\n什么是变革，变革就是利益的重新分配，利益重新分配是大事，不是小事，必须有一个强有力的管理机构，才能进行利益的重新分配，变革才能运行。旧平衡逐步走向新的利益分配平衡。平衡循环过程，是促使企业核心竞争力提升与效益增长的必需。\n\n阿里和华为被市场推崇，被老板喜欢，这两家公司喜欢和善于组织调整，善于刺激组织活力\n\n基本盘扎实-跳芭蕾的女孩都有一双粗腿\n\n芭蕾女孩身材好，腿细长，但在专业人士眼里，这些看法都是不客观的，大部分芭蕾女孩，双腿非常粗，脚也很大，因为这样才更有力量。才能支撑起弹性与柔性，支撑起令人炫目的动感与平衡。力量是根本，建立在力学原理基础上的事物，才可能存在和协之美，均衡之美。\n\n善跳芭蕾需要你基本盘扎实，不要被美感错觉欺骗。\n毛式企业管理\n任正非在部队服役时就是学毛标兵，仔细研究华为的发展史就不难发现，华为的市场攻略，客户政策，竞争策略，以及内部管理与运作，都深深地打上传统权谋智慧和毛式斗争哲学的烙印。任正非的很多内部讲话和宣传资料中，字里行间都跳动着战争术语。\n随着毛的军事战略被引入到现代化的企业战略中，形成了独特的毛泽东式企业管理理论，成了中国企业界特有的一道语言氛围风景。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"豫南迁徙史简记","url":"/%E8%B1%AB%E5%8D%97%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E5%8F%B2%E7%AE%80%E8%AE%B0.html","content":"\n在豫南生活二十余载，一直很好奇家乡的方言和河南省主体差别那么大，初以为是地理因素隔条大淮河发音不同，到了市里发现与市里甚至不远的县发音也好大差异，异类般存在。其实不仅仅是方言语调，连习俗也很多细微区别，种种就不是简单一座山，一条河能够解释的了的了。\n难以置信的巧合是，在广东练车长训去韶关，住同一寝室一外省老者（江西还是浙江记不得了），说他们那一片人祖籍是我们家乡人，相隔千里，方言一样，他这代人已没见过家乡的样子，我诧异不已，原来还有这般渊源，勾起了探究这一份历史缘由的念头。\n迁入\n元末，连年（13年间）战乱，湖北湖南等地人烟稀少田地荒芜，举例湖北孝感地区在洪武二十六年统计，每平方公里5人，而江西受战乱影响较小，鄱阳湖周遭人口相对较稠密，为了恢复生产，平衡发展，朱元璋遂订立江西填湖北的计划（加之也要破除陈友谅的旧有势力），除去强制，且断绝返乡，也有政策优惠，太祖很推崇朱重八这个伟人，有些策略做法也向其学习过。\n两个移民管理点：筷子巷和麻城\n江西迁出的人员领取移民证后，则其留在江西的亲人就无需代其继续在江西负担徭役和税赋（强制外的利诱），到湖北后，必须到麻城登记，将江西户籍转为湖北户籍，否则不能占地耕种或免除徭役税赋等优惠政策，到麻城登记过后，还可以领取官方发放的种子等生产物资。固定的地点设定，利于统计移民数量和管理。\n在江西的移民销户地点设在筷子巷好理解，南昌筷子巷位于南昌和赣江之滨。但孝感府不一定要路过麻城，为甚转换户籍地点放在麻城呢，原因有二：\n\n一方面从1360年起，朱元璋的同乡及亲属也就是官方人士相继迁来麻城，是重要的官方人员聚居和办公地点\n另一方面，因为人烟稀少，在洪武初年，孝感已降级被黄州管理，后来才恢复的编制，麻城是黄州离孝感最近的州县，移民的吃住在人口密度较大的麻城才能承担。\n\n罗山/光山二县沉重的历史\n\n罗山亦是元末农民起义的发源地之一，20余年战乱使人口锐减，存者寥寥，光山罗山与湖广搭界，自然也是被填的对象。\n明末又连年兵祸天灾，豫南民众死的死逃的逃，至清顺治十六年（1659），罗山全县仅2858人，政府又从江西和湖北迁入大批人口。光山和罗山虽同处中原文化与楚文化的接合地带，但其文化传统却区别于同一地带的周边地区，其东边的潢川和西邻的信阳，语音更接近于北方中原，而光山和罗山的语音则更接近于楚，其祭祀方式在当地传统习惯基础上融入了对祖籍地江西的怀念之情。\n迁出\n许多人在迁入地一旦生活不下去外逃时，首选目标即是回到祖籍地江西，明末时就有大批人逃到江西。但本文提及的内容，倒不是主要江西，而是环太湖一线，散布苏皖浙三省。\n\n躲太平军之乱，清咸丰同治年间，太平军捻军清军在罗山境活动战斗长达10余年，给当地人民带来沉重灾难，大批人口被迫逃离家乡。还有一种说法是当时豫南人口多，有人口压力，税赋重，烽烟起，敢于冒险者响应政府招引，背井离乡远赴江南。谁愿意背景离乡，不管哪种说法对，当时一定是生存压力很大\n\n清同治年间，江南宣城广德一带出现瘟疫，人口锐减，（不如说是太平天国战乱死人太多引发瘟疫）前去补充人口多为光山罗山人。当他们逃到这里时，长兴当地人基本被太平天国军队杀光了，这里又临近太湖，是个水草丰美的鱼米之乡，于是先人们就在湖边拓荒耕地，开始了聚居生活。与故乡分离150多年，却仍沿袭和豫南迁出地一样的文化。\n\n太平天国一闹腾，江南受灾严重，举例浙江长兴县咸丰元年人口47万，战乱后到同治六年统计就只剩21969人，为汉朝以来人口最低点。\n\n迁移路线，一路向东出河南进安徽，在芜湖过江到宣城，到后来成为“小河南”的安徽广德和浙江长兴泗安（这两个地方都是交通要道，亦是当今信阳人比例最高的县乡）为中心点，再延伸到整个环太湖。这也是文章起头偶遇外省同音老乡的缘由。\n习俗的差异\n民俗对比了解得少，在参考文章的举例中，发现光山罗山二县连祭祀祖先，新婚回门时间，清明节操作习俗… 等等原来都是在豫南很特别的存在，有兴趣可以细看。\n参考资料\n\n浙江长兴有河南村，根在豫南\n信阳地区清末移民环太湖历史考察记略\n不该被遗忘的“江西填湖广”\n\n","categories":["文史探微"],"tags":["历史","地理"]},{"title":"财务自由","url":"/%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html","content":"\n\n2024年9月13日，延迟法定退休年龄的决定被代议制人大常委会表决通过并对外公布。\n\n胡润报告\n胡润财富家庭报告，一石激起千层浪。把财富分为 ￥600w，￥1000w，￥1 亿，$3000w几个档。\n\n拥有 ￥600w 资产的有 514w 个家庭，能掏出 ￥600w 用于投资的只有 185w 家庭，\n在￥1000w 净值家庭中，分别是企业主 52%，金领34%，职业股民 8%，不动产投资者 6%，这批千万富翁中不动产基本占到总身家一半左右。\n但到了亿级富豪这个阶层，这个群体只有三类人，开公司的，炒股的，炒房的，没有金领这样的高级打工人了，也说明了你不可能通过出租时间（上班）暴富的，这个群体里房产占比就比较低了，不到 20%，更多是企业资产和证劵资产。\n\n为何 ￥600w 是一个槛？按大额存单收益，2.5%，￥15w 足够负担普通家庭一年开支，有 ￥600w 资产已经是百里挑一了，更别说有 ￥600w 可投资的现金了。\n换一种阶层算法，例如年息收入能到 30w，基本能保证你在一线城市过得还不错。如果年利率能到 5%，意味着你需要现金 存款 600w，所以你到底是要花 5w买个包，30w 买个车，接着忍受你不喜欢的工作，还是说尽量把这些钱都存下来。退不退休不一定，可以退而不休，选择余地特别大。\n欲念之火\n财务自由，当代人的生命之光，欲念之火。从绝大多数人上分析，实际上当代人的财务自由，本质就是拉皮条的神话。靠通过出租时间（上班）不可能暴富，在经济不景气的时候，创造点真金白银的财富，更为艰难，想法子把别人口袋里的钱，腾挪到自个儿口袋里，就是实现财务自由的不二法门（财富积累的最快方式是财富转移而非财富创造）。\n金额的认知\n人均百万的迷失\n越来越多的人对钱失去了认知，100w 算不算很多钱？以成都为例， 2020 年收入中位数不到 6w（2021 年达到 6.55w，月薪中位数 5458），100w 需要不吃不喝 17 年才能存到，如果一个月存 2 千，那么需要 50 年才能存到，即便号称人人收入过万的深圳（75%分位月入 1.13w，90 分位月薪 1.91w），收入中位数为 7235 ，上海 8600，北京 8100，二线城市中位数没有超过 5500 的，这也没什么可吃惊的，一线城市最大的群体就是产线工人，餐饮服务员，便利店超市员工，快递小哥等，更别说小城镇了。\n按二线城市的基本衣食住行，2千能活，3千稍微轻松，4~5千不买房也算得上安逸，100w 够你花 33 年，差不多是大部分人一辈子的工作时间。你有 5w 存款已超过全国平均值了，10w 则排进中国前 20%，有些人看似有房有车，但一次性拿出十几、二十万 可能也真的困难，比起资产来说现金流更为重要。\n\n\n把最高和最低的 10%去掉，深圳 80%的人年收入在 3.6w 到 39.4w之间\n\n\n有钱人标准\n按草根巴菲特安德鲁•哈勒姆（Andrew Hallam）的观点，一个“有钱人”（财务自由）至少应该满足如下两个标准：\n1、可以选择不工作，而不必为了生计而担忧。\n2、所持有的投资，可以保证终生都有两倍于本国中等收入家庭的收益。2020年，北上广深3口之家的平均家庭年收入为24-50万元，疫情后这几年这个数字应该没大变化。也就是说，一个人的投资年收益如果能持续超过50万，并随着时间的增长而不断增长，就可以算一个有钱人。\n在北上广深实现财务自由，实际的门槛并没有胡润《中国千万富豪品牌倾向报告》报告里提到的1.3 亿那么高，只要满足三个条件即可实现财务自由：有社保（提前离职也可以继续缴纳社保），有一套还款完成的住房加一千万现金（一半人民币一半美元，即500万人民币和70万美元），即可在北上广深实现财务自由。有社保和住房保证了医疗和居住不会出现大问题，一千万现金保证日常生活不会出大问题，人民币的部分，可以投入稳健类的理财（债券、信托、优质股票或优质基金等），美元部分，可以购买优质美股（苹果、亚马逊、谷歌、微软、脸书等）或者指数基金（标普500指数基金或纳斯达克100指数基金等），假设收益率为7%，通货膨胀率为2%，每年生活支出控制在50万元以内，即可一直持续下去，每年消费现金÷(7%-2%)=实现财务自由所需要的最少现金量。每年的消费额度控制在50万元以内，这大概就可以算得上进入财务自由的门槛了[4]。\n金钱和自由的认知\n财务自由的本质\n财务自由各路说法标准不一，但几乎都归结到拥有多少钱上，这种说法比较娱乐，从实质上讲货币这东西只是个中介物（一般等价物），它并不是财富，更不是财务。财务自由的本质是拥有多少合法占有他人财富的方法，并保持稳定。而不合法的都是掠夺[3]。\n通过解构来理解，普通人就财产性收入和工资性收入两部分，工资性收入属于劳动人民，社会经济的发展和科技的进步，让人们的使用价值期限越来越短，被辞退的年龄日渐年轻化。当财产性收入大于日常开销，在有限范围内想干点啥就干点啥，即财务自由。财务自由的关键在于财产性收入，说白了就是怎么剥削他人！坐享其成，躺着收财产的资息。从整个社会看，只有很小一部分人能实现财务自由，因为这部分人的自由需要其他人拼命劳动来承担。\n开拓被动收入渠道，增厚资产\n\n如果你在工作，就把工资收入的一部分存起来，养一只下金蛋的鹅，会为你带来持续的被动收入\n或边工作边修筑一条持续赚钱的管道\n或利用工作之余，挖一口属于你自己的井\n\n财产的背后支撑逻辑就是层级划分。事实上作为普通人，无论你有多少钱，社会金字塔画条线，塔尖的人永远比你更有钱。因为钱的分配肯定倾斜于他们，或者说给他们印的钱。货币就是一个中介物，是金字塔运行中的一股股水流而已。水流再多也不会改变金字塔结构。所谓「自由就是用他人的时间换来的」，大家唯一能做的，是跟住水流积累财产，才能在阶层动态变化中逐步晋升。\n货币不是财富，用钞票来衡量和计算不靠谱，那用什么呢？ 抠到根上，最能衡量的就是底层的分工劳动时间。如帝都一套房的增值收入（含租金），等于某村里一个农民多少年的劳动收入。这俩值（增值收入和劳动收入）是一直在变化的，比值就是劳动时间。所谓自由就是用他人的时间换来的。\n大家口头上的钱是你过去劳动力的集合，是你通过使用自己这个躯壳接受既定教育，完成技能培训，消耗时间生命换来的一般等价物。用这个一般等价物去交换其它生活必需品。有钱人用杠杆表面借的是钱，实际上借的是大家的劳动力，是大家存在银行的劳动剩余。最后用资本垄断资源，再把资源锚定一般等价物卖还给你，形成财富闭环。不能玩剥削的东西不叫财产！而剥削与劫掠就是富对穷。\n举个例子，当看到新闻里讲“加强居民财产性收入”的时候，就要想到两点： 一是有些群体可能要凉了，这边加强了，那边肯定要有牺牲的。一套房财产性收入翻个几倍，涨出的部分相当于十八线工农干好几辈子赚的。本质就相当于成全一小撮人劫掠一大撮人的劳动，而实现了自身的自由。\n资本时代的两个铁律：\n\n下面不停干活，才能保证上面的财务自由\n塔尖正在玩什么财产，钱肯定就流入到那\n\n资本社会的核心就在于货币流动。富人跟着资产转，资产跟着泡沫转，泡沫跟着货币转，货币跟着信贷转，信贷跟着周期转，周期跟着经济形势转，调节形势跟着央行政策转，一定时段上各国银行跟着美联储转。\n养殖供养\n世界是个养殖场，就是农场主饲养小动物，跟农场主靠的紧日子就好过，更大概率能得到财务自由！普通人最好做法是跟最大的庄，这类庄的选择是「能带动就业的盘」，跟着喝汤。\n在国际上这种“养殖”叫做国际协作分工，等神州国际化了，上面讲的十八线工农饱受掠夺的低端型劳动，也将扔给第三世界，而我们用财产性收入（金融）来买他们东西，实现我们的自由。老美就这么玩我们的，他们的幸福建立在我们的付出之上。我们也终将把老美玩的所有套路重演一遍，不管是对外还是对内。\n无论是国际分工还是神州内部的社会金字塔运行，「养殖」模式是相通的，小动物的养殖模式探讨可看这一篇文章。现在的大城市圈放开户籍抢人，在抢劳动力和劳动力兜里钱的背后，是形成“分圈养殖”。\n\n财务自由的对手盘\n对于大多数普通人，社会现在设计的本来就是你存不到钱，老美等国家也是一样的，社会稍微存款多一点，那房子就涨价一波吧。为什么，因为你存钱多了，谁去干活？总要有人去干活啊，你有数十年积蓄，你会去干活吗，都财富自由请问谁去做事！\n普通人不要指望自己可以存很多钱，商家会想办法掏空你的口袋，最好你还欠银行一些钱，每年你可以还得起的，这样你一家人会疯狂的工作，会调动最多的劳动力。钱只不过是印出来的。\n短缺经济时代，以产品为核心，好是真的好，大家讲4P；过剩经济时期，满世界都是套路，真实的商品交易已经赚不到高额利润，消费者认为的好都是被其他人洗脑的结果，玩的是 4C，以刺激需求为核心，就是让你想要啥，然后给你啥。保健品，知识付费，甚至自律都是一种智商税。\n为了建立一个健康的财务环境，你需要取消关注某些人，校正容易变穷的财务习惯和模式，主导自己的消费，顺势致富。对许多人来说，选择父母同侪($ch\\acute{a}i$, 辈分相同的人)和社会期望我们走的路，或按广告商告诉我们的方法来消费，会没那么挣扎。但若你的生活方式只是为了安抚身边人，违背了自己的价值观和想为自己设计的生活，那么财务上的危险就会出现。\n自由的心智标准\n财务自由是另一个更模糊词（这个词叫安全感）的组成部分。站在生命中点看终点，财务自由到底什么？从底线上来讲，像个人样活着，真不需要太多。\n\n不出席活动或会议，你的旧衣服估计能顶你穿200年\n高级套餐煎饼15块一套\n像个人样住着，十二平可能是个底线。\n后代们自有自己的福分\n养亲以讨欢心为本，但欢心和给钱没多少关系。洒脱的早已成仙，不洒脱的早已没一丝一毫觉悟的可能。\n\n财务自由很大程度上其实和财务无关，还是和一个人的心智洞明纠缠在一起。所以财务自由的标准是什么？很多人觉得是财务状况，但除了少数暴富群体，更重要是你对自由的定义，有人向往纸醉金迷，夜夜笙歌，有的人则追求高山流水，闲庭信步，如果你很确定不能实现财富大幅增长的话，倒不如降低自己对自由的标准，也许这样能快乐很多，毕竟生活本身就是一种过程。\n通胀的焦虑\n有一种通胀的恐惧，如 30 年前的钱放在现在不值钱，但那是在高速发展和变革时期的产物 ，30 年前的货币经验不适用于未来，过去 30 年发生太多社会变革了，观察发达国家，经济发达则币值稳定，通膨温和或低，渲染即将大通胀的可以休停一下，有小确幸的心态，你的生活水平和幸福指数不会差。\n真正的自由\n\n\n没有财富自由，只有时间自由，只有时间自由了，才是真正的自由。\n\n\n与钱有关但却关系不大。有一本书《时间贫穷》。如果有可能的话，尽量让白天也有属于自己的时间，人会健康很多。\n\n\n财务自由的庄家路线\n老牌资本主义靠战争输出生产力，我们通过人口红利输出生产力，和平崛起。现如今生产力以严重过剩，商品和服务都一样，这就会挤压出一个结果，想赚钱，就要靠存量财富转移，没有新科技，只能互相玩，财富互相转移，从分配方向看是从下往上转移。\n如索罗斯那句名言，世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧，要获得财富的做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认知之前退出游戏。\n这个世界一个残酷的事实是，认识泡沫，加入泡沫，传销泡沫，可能远比干实业实现财务自由的概率大的多。30 岁之前实现财务自由的人做对了两件事：不小心被动站上了风口（投胎好，命好）；自己参与了风口的创造（传销传的好，运好）。做不了庄和局，大概率要相信自己这辈子是不会财务自由了。\n坐庄转移\n坐庄某种程度上就是合法的抢和骗，本身转移就比创造快。在规则之内，被割者只能愿赌服输。股市是坐庄，商场是坐庄（商场甚至希望个体户能倒闭频繁些，以保持商场对顾客的新鲜度）。投机只是搭便车，从概率层面上，坐庄做局赢面要大很多，当然要求的资源整合能力也不一样。\n坐庄做局需要把一个事情搞复杂，搞得信息极不对称，这样才能收割韭菜。做生意割的都是小白和散户，普通的 2B 因为彼此信息都专业，只是在搬砖做事的层面，不太有财富自由的空间。\n各层的角色\n底层收智商税（人性的营销行为，攻击你的大脑，占有你的灵魂），底层是最接近市场化的层面，每天信息轰炸不停。所谓创业，营销都是围绕着最底层市场，因为其他层根本不屑这些繁琐的活。收智商税的核心逻辑是信息不对称，核心方法只有一个，洗脑。被洗脑者甘愿自欺欺人。\n中层找接盘侠：模仿即是接盘，盘面宰割的就是财富，中产是主要接盘对象。出国中介，伪奢侈品，学区房都算，一股模仿风一般至少能刮 10~20 年\n上层玩金融，小溪变大海。套路就两个：放贷和炒资产。\n财务自由的皮条路线\n\n要实现财务自由，对不同的客户，得拉不同的皮条\n\n下层人民安慰剂\n下层人民对社会，总有这样那样的不满，因此他们往往倾向于从集体身上寻求安慰。仿佛我们的卫星上天、航母下海，其中也有自己的一份功劳和荣光似的。兜售这一份集体的荣光，就能帮他们暂时忘却生活的苦楚，达到精神的高潮，向他们卖爱国最合适不过。\n中产先焦虑后方案\n中产的生活是受夹层气的。一方面，他们担忧上升通道关闭，另一方面，又担忧随时会滑落到底层去。担心失业供不起房贷，担心子女教育上落后，担心父母突如其来的大病，甚至担心滨海新区那场飞来横祸般的爆炸，任何突如其来的变化，都会轻松将他们击垮。向中产卖焦虑恰如其分。和底层不同，还可多贩卖一份东西：同时贩卖解决办法。贩卖解决办法也是蒙骗中产阶级，快速实现财务自由的不二法门。\n给中产贩卖的解决办法有三种：\n\n\n一夜暴富的梦想：股票，基金，炒房，比特币，区块链满天飞，忽悠的多少人蠢蠢欲动，仿佛自由的大门已在眼前敞开，争先恐后地投入到这场庞氏骗局的盛宴里去。各路理论知识大 V 们，办 live 开讲座，各路皮包公司大行其道，一个财务不自由的人，靠着给另外一些财务不自由的人，讲述财务自由的方法，而最终实现了财务自由，想想都魔幻笑话。\n\n\n贩卖知识、鸡汤、仁波切。\n\n卖知识，是通过拼搏抚平焦虑\n卖鸡汤，是通过等待抚平焦虑\n卖仁波切，一刀切断欲望之源，自然没了焦虑。相对中产先生，中产太太们更吃仁波切这套。\n\n\n\n卖移民梦，许多都市人在实现财务自由后，顿时陷入迷茫，这个时候会有热心人站出来为你指点迷津，为生活找到新的目标，那就是移民。移民美国，当然是许多一夜暴富者们的心头朱砂痣，然而美国就那么一个，已然不够我国的财务自由者移民的了。于是这些年来，各式各样的移民中介，如雨后春笋般在神州大地上生长出来，个个舌灿莲花，把外国包装成了天堂，只忽悠大伙儿掏钱，紧赶慢赶地去别的国家做二等公民。靠着兜售异国他乡的生活，也能有不菲的收入。\n\n\n我国这片神奇的土地，放眼望去，随便细分一下，都是一片绿油油的韭菜田，而每一颗韭菜入市的时候，都以为自己是一株参天大树。现在搞钱就是坑蒙拐骗，不会吹牛发不了大财，吹牛等同于画饼能力，也是一种高阶领导能力。\n赚钱之道其实很简单\n\n\n向未成年人卖电子游戏，卖娱乐[2]\n\n戏子当道，追逐潮流\n向玩游戏的卖装备（不局限于青少年）\n\n\n\n向少妇卖仁波切\n\n\n有钱有闲，迷失精神追求。\n\n\n结果上看算是对老公冷暴力的一种报复\n\n\n\n\n向老女人卖青春\n\n\n向老男人卖健康\n\n不举尿不尽，这失落感，无论多贵的「健康」产品都愿意消费\n\n\n\n向中年男人卖鄙视\n\n\n越鄙视，越来劲。你说我不行，我非要证明自己行\n\n\n没品味，立即买大牌；没地位，KTV 告诉你整个世界都是属于他的\n\n\n\n\n向上班族卖焦虑\n\n\n后浪推前浪，优胜劣汰\n\n\n向兜里有点钱的人卖通货膨胀\n\n\n\n\n向屌丝卖性暗示\n\n\n有人在屏幕上唱歌跳舞陪自己，比真女友要实惠\n\n\n他们需要的，只是一点点性暗示的甜头就够了，直播打赏走起\n\n\n\n\n向中产阶级兜售生活方式\n\n如何生活，也是一门生意。最喜欢兜售生活方式的就是车企\n\n个性生活方式是轿跑汽车，衬托你的不凡\n5+2 的生活方式是城市 SUV，（呼朋唤友）呼吸大自然的纯粹\n顾家的男人才是成功男人的标准，MPV 又成热品\n生活不止眼前的苟且，还有诗和远方，硬派越野高人一等\n精英人士需要豪华品质衬托（蓝天白云丁字裤四个圈）\n\n\n\n\n\n向看微博的人卖无聊，向读公共号的人卖鸡汤\n\n\n参考\n1.深圳市人力资源和社会保障局 深圳市2023年人力资源市场工资价位及行业人工成本信息 ↩2.凤凰网 当下中国最好的生意 ↩3.X.com 揭露财富自由之路的本质   ↩4.月光博客 在中国有多少钱才算财务自由? ↩","categories":["经济社会"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"贫穷思维与破局","url":"/%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E4%B8%8E%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%80.html","content":"家庭出身决定了突破阶层的难度，而思维决定出路，若是一身的穷人思维给&quot;保驾护航&quot;，则突破无望，将&quot;牢底坐穿&quot;。\n护驾贫穷的思维\n过度“节约”\n在任何事情上都斤斤计较的穷人，真的是很难翻身，消耗的意志力和判断力过多，就很难在其它有价值的事情上费心。节约是必要的，但务必要腾出一些时间和金钱在自我的教育和投资上，否则，为过多琐碎的事情耗费太多的时间，只会让自己在穷困里越陷越深，直至无法自拔。\n\n觉得什么东西都有价值，这样大脑里什么东西都往里放，最后啥都不重要了。真正的高手，只保留有价值的东西，生活极简，大脑是极其丰富的。\n凡是占据物理空间的东西，多数是没有价值的，你扔几次就明白了。\n一个房子，一定是越住越乱，房子里的东西也是越住越多。这种混乱程度，多少都是你内在精神的某种负担和意识存储的某种占用。这种占用，是一种精神阻塞，认知阻塞，更是一种对潜意识里看不见的世界占用。\n\n吝啬却又好攀比\n大多数穷人骨子里是吝啬的，因为生活经历，经济条件和父母的影响，不愿意为有价值的服务支付费用，喜欢廉价和免费，哪怕要付出更多的成本和代价。\n可他们却又是好攀比，爱面子的，会为面子牺牲很多，易做出不让自己被笑话却让自己很不利的选择路线上去，影响明智抉择，甚至阻挡了前进的，通往富裕的道路。\n泥潭环境的人，习惯性互相侵犯边界感，捧高踩低，占小便宜，追逐短期利益，不担事儿。\n传统保守，怕担风险\n\n最喜欢的工作是稳定没有风险的工作，哪怕是很少的风险也是他们不舒服的。很少去考虑挑战和成长，发展空间和长远，更看重的是现在，是稳定是安全。\n大多数穷人缺乏勇气，思维定势。不敢跳出那个看似安全的小圈子，最终只能原地踏步，年老时就算有心，力却不足了。\n只知量入为出，没有目标导向\n真正决定贫富差距的，不是拥有财富的多少，而是思维水平的高低\n拿买房置业这种观念财富增值的主要手段来说，很多人手里有一些存款，但距离房子首付款还有一些距离。这时候，典型的穷人思维是资源导向，首先考虑自己手头的钱够不够，等攒够了再买，结果存款能买的房子越来越小和偏。\n富人知道怎么抢跑制造差距，收割后来者，不会简单被门槛给限制住，办法是人想出来的，想到就去干（当然这则要结合周期阶段看）\n受害人心态和偏激思考\n老觉得富人是为富不仁的，只从自己的爱好，愿望和判断出发，事情稍不如意就很容易有愤怒，怨恨，委屈等负面情绪。\n反之认清社会，认知自己，反思并加以改进，否则在思维的泥淖（nào）里，你永远都无法逃离\n懒于思考\n一种懒惰时候行动上的懒惰，生活中散漫懒散。一种是思想上的懒惰，懒于思考和动脑，穷人其实在行动上并不懒的，不少还是夜以继日，加班加点的工作，可即便这样，并不能让他们有良好的生活条件，只是维持着还凑活的生活而已。穷人的懒惰，本质上还是在思维，只想着努力工作，只想着低头干事，却从来不曾抬头看天，分析和思考周围的环境，职业发展和收入，认清规律并真正采取行动加以改进。闲下来的时候，都是在看国产肥皂剧\n赌博思维\n\n容易陷入投机\n\n\n\n不做可量化的努力，而是通过赌博，怪力乱神来随机抽取他们的路。\n\n\n缺乏长期博弈观念，由于经常要面临短期生存压力，穷人的时间和资源更稀缺，难以兼顾更长远，健康，可持续的领域。\n\n\n即使突然暴富，也会缺乏长线思考的习惯而更容易被打回原形。\n热衷当下享受，消费主义\n\n拿铁效应\n\n一对夫妻习惯在每天外出时，一人买一杯拿铁喝。他们觉得这是一件非常惬意的事情。当理财顾问给他们算了账，才知道财务漏斗有多大。更可怕的是，这种财务漏斗，远不止一杯拿铁.\n\n\n每天两杯拿铁的花费是70元，一年就是25550元，30年就是76.65万元。\n\n\n生活中买衣服，点外卖，打车等一些不太引人注意到零散花费，积少成多，样样都不比拿铁少。\n\n\n富人思维不同，相信时间和积累的力量，在钱不多的时候厉行节约，然后用节约下来的钱，去帮自己赚钱，进而产生一个财富滚雪球的效应。\n为何贫穷？\n\n\n没有拿得出手的才能，忙着内耗，攀比，奶头乐，瞎晃悠，出卖劳力，低水平竞争，没时间锤炼技能，无法在任何领域做到无可替代。\n\n\n缺乏信息，更容易被规则剥削，不熟悉各种规则。筛选逻辑，礼仪，人际关系，黑话，生态链关系，在规则熟悉度上处于劣势。在成熟社交中，这些劣习很容易被识别，然后被排斥。穷人难以认知的领域更广，更容易陷入不可知论，继而习惯把无法认知的规律归结于命运。\n\n\n容错性差，财务不支持其做大量的尝试，很多成功人士可以失败八九十次直到成功，而他们只有一两次，甚至没有，成功概率就极低，且更难获得贵人相助。\n\n\n翻身要整合资源\n想翻身，想摆脱命运，首先要学的就是洞悉人性，学会利益交换，这样做事才会游刃有余。跟社会地位高的人，地位低的人懂得如何去交换。\n\n\n大部分人由于自身资源匮乏，对钱看得过重，甚至连对自己有过帮助的人都抠抠索索，算来算去。更不消说用钱换来更多价值，让别人主动帮你。\n\n\n要么就是交往过多无用社交关系，把钱用在无效社交，真到用钱时，陷入债务困境，到处借贷拆东墙补西墙，到最后积累不起任何资源，对金钱缺乏基础的认知无法驾驭，过不了价值交换这一关，最终只能是劳累一生而无所改变（空有一身本领而郁郁不得志的人在现在这个社会大有人在）。\n\n\n窍门是要学会整合资源，大部分人从小就被告诉勤劳致富，血汗钱是最踏实的，所有挣钱途径都是本本分分，对于利用关系挣钱的人心生鄙视。其实这个社会的真相和底层逻辑完全不一样，你可要知道，你就算拼命打工几百年都难以翻身。挣钱，挣大钱其实就是一个反人性的过程，说白了就是利用人性的欲望，在法律的框架内不停榨取别人的资源为己所用。商场如战场，如果只靠勤劳努力甚至一点点运气来积累财富，最终还是会凭自己的实力还回去。因为你的认知就驾驭不了金钱整合不了资源。\n不要褒奖苦难不谙世事\n说苦难能磨炼意志是因为苦难无法躲开，穷人的孩子早当家更多说的是在比较差的环境下掌握谋生技巧而已。\n能活着，但翻身困难。越是底层家庭出生的孩子，对社会规则理解的越晚，长大之后往往精力都用在努力工作，只知道埋头苦干，忽略对自己认知的提高，忽视对社会运行的洞察和理解，更不要说掌握人性。且价值观还很浅，讨厌研究人际关系，对于搞关系送礼拍马屁等极度鄙视。\n要是自身掌握核心技术，成为技术大拿也行。关键大多数人还是个普通人，没有核心竞争力，还清高不善于表达，或者喝点酒就就掏心掏肺，这就属于不谙世事了。\n社会真相\n改变命运就是要不断为各种资源积累和整合，当一个人开始走向社会，首先踏实积累经验，抽空多读书，但你个人的价值提升始终是有限的，而资源的整合是无限的。只有找到资源整合的路，才可能改变收入模式，进而积累起来进入下一阶层。\n这个社会的真相就是底层只管自己赚钱，相互攀比算计排挤，有钱人抱团取暖聚集圈子积累资源，榨取别人的价值为己所用，而这种对社会规则的本质认识，有人早早就掌握。穷人家的孩子往往在社会摸爬滚打几年也不一定能摸索出来，起步就比别人晚，随着社会的发展，资源的变幻，认知的不断深化，所取得的成就，跨入的阶层跟别人的差距会越来越大。\n个人观念改变的心理因素\n\n\n控制个人的借口：例如自己没时间，我没钱等借口，诚实地思考“对此我可以做点什么”\n\n\n成为、做、拥有；不是这样做，而是为何要做。有愿景，再实行，最后才可达成心愿，达成财务自由，有方法并不足够，还需清楚个人目标才行\n\n\n认清每种意见，同时要有独立思考能力，而非随波逐流，任由恐慌情绪控制自己。\n\n\n为自己未来制造美好的谎言：与其担心“这样做会怎样”，不如积极地强调梦想，以正面能量自我激励\n\n\n学习新词汇是免费的。改变所处的象限，首先要学懂需要的名词，从中适应这种转变\n\n\n学习对失败的豁达乐观，如果要破产的话，不如就来得严重一些。\n\n\n现金流象限\n\n\nEmployee（受雇者、雇员）：为他人工作而赚取薪金，追求安全、稳定，畏惧风险的一群人\nSelf-employed（自雇者、专业技能者、自由职业者、小企业主）：拥有某一专长而能为自己工作而赚钱，重视完美，不轻易将职责交托予人，如：医生、律师……等等。\nBusiness owner（企业所有人、雇佣者、雇主、老板）：拥有一个能够良好运转的企业系统，视风险为挑战、欢迎问题并乐于透过解决问题而致富的一群，信奉以别人的时间(OTHER PEOPLE’S TIME，OPT)以及别人的金钱(OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY，OPM)为他们工作，收入来源是企业的收益\nInvestor（投资者）：让钱为他们工作，收入来源是各种投资，用钱来产生出更多的钱，即是“富爸爸”一书中所强调“让金钱为你工作”。\n\n身处E、S两种象限，无法令自己达至财务自由（你是一个人玩游戏，去对付一个团队）。我们应该透过成为B、I象限，才能达到目标。在此基础上，穷爸爸富爸爸作者进而提出“B-I三角形”理念。\n致富的关键：B-I三角形\n\nB「企业家」健全架构三要素\n\n由创业家负责\n三者都不能瘸腿，否则内部5要素就难以稳住阵脚，事业经营就会陷入困境\n\n\n使命（Mission）：企业宗旨和理念，如提供最好最廉价的产品等，是企业价值观核心所在，打造精神使命和商业使命。每个人在生命中都拥有自己的使命。\n团队（Team）：组成公司的成员，擅长所属岗位工作的人才。拥有一支专业分工合作的梦想伙伴\n领导力（Leadership）：自己在领导，管理团队的能力，建立规则打造边界，让人们在其中安心工作。身具使命感，销售力，领导力，经营力。接受市场/团队的回馈做出正面改变。\n\n一个领导者的角色应是有远见的人，啦啦队长和老板的综合体\n领导者的职责是使最出色的人脱颖而出，而不是让自己成为最出色的人\n\n\n\n专业运作五要素\n\n由专才负责\n\n\n\n现金流（Cachflow）：一个可以为公司带来稳定收入来源的获利机器，现金流就好比身体的血液和汽车的燃油流动，要学会如何控制管理现金流。要记住利润和现金流的区别\n\n\n沟通（Communication），对客户的例如销售技巧等，对内部例如上司与下属可彼此了解情况。要有效的与金钱沟通从学习金钱语言开始。沟通和现金流之间的周期往往是 6 周，越善于沟通，与越多人沟通，越有利于你的现金流。\n\n外部沟通：推销、市场营销、客户服务、与投资者的沟通、公共关系\n内部沟通：与团队分享成功，定期召开员工会议，定期与顾问沟通，人力资源政策\n\n\n\n系统（System）：公司运作所必须的制度。事业成功关键之一就是了解有效率的系统。系统越好对人的依赖就越小。\n\n\n法律（Legal）：除了透过合法方式，减少应付税项，还有例如版权维护，免责条款等需要，在规范下尽情的伸展发挥。\n\n\n产品（Product）：产品质量，以及它是否迎合市场。但这点在B-I中不如其它部分重要，很多人都能做出比麦当劳更好的🍔，但没人能构建出比麦当劳更好的企业系统。\n\n\n学习B-I三角运作的3个方法\n\n\n扩展视野\n除了专业知识外，创业者必须了解其他相关领域与市场，如饼干公司的老板不能只具有烘焙饼干的专才，还必须学习包装与营销\n\n\n创业前先积累经验\n进入企业工作，目的在于好好观察企业的实际运作，如到麦当劳工作，借机了解企业的协调与营运。\n\n\n从旁观察\n观察某家企业，试想如果你是领导人，从产品到设计，行销等作业流程，该怎么规划。\n\n\n资产与负债\n穷爸爸富爸爸作者罗伯特认为：只有带来稳定现金流的东西，才算资产。能真正让人达到财务自由的，不是工作，也不是金钱，而是能带来源源不断现金流的资产。\n资产就是将钱放进你口袋的东西，负债则是把你口袋的钱拿走的东西。资产和负债不同的现金流向，会造成不同的财富结果。\n\n穷人只通过工作获取收入，通过消费将挣来的钱花出去，没任何资产。\n中产通过工作获取收入，再购买一些他们认为是资产的负债，然后通过偿还负债，花光他们的钱，同样没有资产。\n而富人通过购买资产来产生收入，再用收入来购买资产，循环下去最终获得大量财富，实现无需工作也能不断获得收入的财务自由状态。\n\n房产必定等于资产？\nNo！如房屋透过出租，抵消成本费用，并产生出业主的正向现金流，才可算是“资产”。不会产生正向现金流收入的房屋，充其量只是负债。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"赚不到认知范围外的钱","url":"/%E8%B5%9A%E4%B8%8D%E5%88%B0%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E8%8C%83%E5%9B%B4%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E9%92%B1.html","content":"\n不是不知道这句话，而是这几天自发蒙上心头，感触到了深深的沉闷压抑。\n\n你所赚的每一分钱都是你对这个世界认知的变现，或者是短时运气\n你所亏的每一分钱都是因为对这个世界认知有缺陷，当你的财富大于认知时，社会有100种方法收割你，直到认知和财富相匹配\n\n当人的智商与财富不匹配时，多余的资金就会以各种方式回流市场\n差距扩大是自然律动\n身处深圳这座城市，未体察到财富流动之水，埋头干活，普普通通，被甩下/收割就是因为进步的不够快\n人到中年，金钱社会，方知自己活得简单，活得肆意\n\n这是一个不进则退，拼成长速度的时代，这是一个彰显选择大于努力的时代，这是一个追求效率多过公平的时代\n这段话为什么蒙上心头呢，或许也片段受了《历史的教训》这本书的作用。\n\n人生来就是自由而不平等的，这在生物学层面就是确定性的，能做到法律和教育机会平等已经非常不易。经济水平稍下的人，渴求平等，水平稍上的则渴求自由，最终总是自由胜出，才智高超的人得偿所愿。\n\n我本来以为自己属于思考认知能力敏捷的人，虽然经济水平在深圳也许在前10%之内，但仍然感觉深深的被碾压，萌生自我挫败，不是自己算不上努力，而是自己不重视机会效率，就其而言，还是不够聪明。一个立体化聪明的人，才是一个生活的强者吧，活得体悟宽泛。\n认知的加强\n\n靠实践\n靠交流（与人交友，与书交友）\n\n牛马观\n小时候不懂，为何一根细小的绳子，可拴住一头牛，让其在田间辛勤劳作一生。现如今，一把无形枷锁，把你困在方寸之地。牛和你，都有致命的弱点，牛鼻子太软，怕痛；你人生太短，怕穷。牛的一辈子，只为了青草，你用尽一生，只图个温饱，空有人间自由身，却非人间自由人。\n对于大多数普通人，社会现在设计的本来就是你存不到钱，老美等国家也是一样的，社会稍微存款多一点，那房子就涨价一波吧。为什么？因为你存钱多了，谁去干活，总要有人去干活啊，你有10年积蓄，你会去干活吗？都财富自由请问谁去做事，普通人不要指望自己可以存很多钱，商家会想办法掏空你的口袋的，最好你还欠银行一些钱，每年你可以还得起的，这样你会拼命去工作，这样你会加班，你不敢辞职，再委屈也会996，这样你一家人会疯狂的工作，会调动最多的劳动力。\n换一种戏谑的视角：钱只不过是印出来的（虽不是这么儿戏）。\n力吹美股要当心\n\n大家都知道一个村的狗会接力叫，虽然都在叫，你要小心一点，因为只有第一条狗知道为什么叫。\n\n对多数散户来说，美股和大A实际都是判了死刑，但美股和大A两个诈骗中心，有什么区别？\n\n\n美股是每天都给你吃断头饭，但当天不一定行刑。因为它在钓大鱼，你在里面吃挺爽，它在等你卖房叫老婆孩子叫上亲戚一起来买，行刑的时候手起刀落特别快，一年可以拿走你10年的利润，一晚上可以收走你所有的本金和利润，让你损失惨重。\n\n\n大A诈骗中心，这里是判了死刑+无期徒刑，你在牢里老死，这个牢房周围山清水秀，每天让你出去放风，看看外面的美好。但定期从你身上割一块肉，短时间内死不了，又给你推回牢里了，给你抹上这世上最好的金疮药，等你肉长出来后再拉你一刀。\n\n\n在美股的交易者长期欢乐，死得特别痛快。所以你在自媒体上很少看到美股的差评；但大A的交易者每天都在牢里拿着手机，在自媒体上发表骂街的言论。可以说一个是酒池肉林，一个是空乏其身。\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"跳到你的高维空间","url":"/%E8%B7%B3%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.html","content":"\n\n不要做在褶皱纸面上行进被推得东倒西歪的虫\n\n升维的能力\n自然规律在高维空间表述会变得更为简单和优美。\n在近几个世纪的数学和物理学都在高维领域得到了绝佳的扩展和应用。高维离科学那么近，离生活又那么远。生活中虽体味不明显，但不代表这个不重要。\n我们不能看见高维，就像我们是水里的鱼看不见水一样，只有岸上的生物（更高维度空间生活）才能体察到水的存在。另外一个方面，其余的维度可能蜷缩在普朗克尺度上，成为类似小球的形状，以人类当前的观察能力，尚无法观察到这个尺度范围。\n大家都知道欧几里得几何，但其描述的完美形状在现实世界中基本不存在，我们的自然界中没有什么地方能使我们看到平坦的理想化的欧几里得几何图形，山脉，海浪，云彩和漩涡都是不完美的原型，三角形和正方形，而是以无穷多样的方式表现出的弯弯扭扭的弯曲物体。连我们的几大行星都是螺旋形绕着太阳在疯狂赶路。\n\n科学巨人的接力\n黎曼几何\n高斯作为黎曼的导师，其实也对欧几里得几何学持有深刻而广泛的保留意见，但其非常保守，不愿意与人争论，有自己在这方面的研究发展，但不愿意拿出来。黎曼在做非欧几何的探索时，还在帮物理学做一些电学方面的实验，好挣些收入糊口。\n当时，大家都知道电和磁有相关性，黎曼直观地把电和磁认为是同一种力的某种表现形式，这是电磁一体化的第一小步。一方面，他又在按导师要求准备一个关于“几何基础”的重要公开演讲，在这种交叉情况下，他提出一种惊人的“力”的含义。自牛顿开始，科学家认为力是两个远距离物体间的瞬间相互作用，称为超距作用。\n黎曼认为“力”是几何的结果，类比一个生活在二位褶皱平面上的虫，其肯定认为其前进的世界是平坦的，因为他们的身体也将被弄皱，而不会注意到他们的世界被扭曲了。当运动时，他们将觉得有一种神秘的看不见的“力”在阻止他们沿直线运动，每当他们的身体越过纸的一道皱纹，他们就会被推的左右晃动。\n黎曼推断，电，磁，引力都是我们的三维宇宙在看不见的第四维中起皱所致。因此，力本身并不存在，它只是几何畸变引起的明显结果。（大家现在看，这个设想也足够大胆，超出一般人的常识范围）\n黎曼的度规张量使他建立了一种强有力的工具来描述具有任意曲率的任何维空间，但他不知道度规张量遵循的精确方程，即他不知道什么使纸张起皱。但其先进的数学超过了19世纪相对落后的物理认识。为了使物理学家赶上数学家，我们必须等待有一个世纪。\n物理追上数学\n而后爱因斯坦的发现，就不用赘述了。\n在大学里，爱因斯坦证实了他的才艺，知道光可以用法拉第的电磁场描述。这些场遵循麦克斯韦的场方程，他发现麦克斯韦方程不允许静止的冻结的波，事实上也证明，不管你怎么辛苦的追赶光束，这束广总是以同样的速度c前进。在麦克斯韦场方程基础上，得出了狭义相对论。\n当讨论宇宙的归宿时，某一种说法我们可以通过高维逃跑。在宇宙创生后的瞬间，四维宇宙以牺牲六维宇宙为代价膨胀，我们的姊妹宇宙已收缩到普朗克尺度。当我们的四维宇宙塌缩时，我们的姊妹宇宙可能是开放的，使得维际旅行再一次变得可能。\n当前物理学已经重新进入瓶颈期在举步维艰。电影《星际穿越》里设想了那核心的秘密正在视界之外（黑洞中心），让人难以窥见终极奥义。\n非理性领域抽象\n\n如上回顾了那些科技史上让人精心赞叹的历史\n\n科学可以在高维得到完美简单的推广解释，人类社会，也在某些理论模型下，也能够解释那反复重现的历史模型与大事件，显得非常的有意思，例如人口的马尔萨斯陷阱，可以用来解释科学改造人类社会之前的历史路径，当在这种更高维度看问题的理论指引下，循环往复出现的问题，不再那么模糊不清，没有那么多旁枝末节，跌跌撞撞。\n知识\n广泛经历是一个途径（还要勤于思考）\n深度研究也是一个途径，这条路更准，因广度知识通常是深度研究的副产品。包括熟读历史其实也是要到一定深度的。\n情绪\n人类除了有知识，人类还有情绪，是一个活在错综复杂情绪场的动物，学会管理自己的情绪（情商），也是一个非常关键的升级能力。\n世上多少人失败，不是因为不懂业务（能力），而是控制不了自己的情绪和欲望。\n情商论中有四个阶段。\n\n我是世界的中心\n我在世界的边缘\n我在世界之外\n我无处不在\n\n大部分人在1~2阶段中反复流转，当你进入第三阶，能在世界之外，人生也就更快乐了，或许你离改变世界的更大范围的成功就不远了。因为你已经跳到了更高的维度\n周期\n炒股活动大家都知道赔的人多，赚的人少，又看似一个复杂的迷局，每一天都有无数升升跌跌，但又在大周期里涨涨落落。只有成为高维度的玩家（智商），才能成为周期的赢家。\n赌博式的经济活动如炒股，控制自己的情绪，才能掌握成功的主动权。大周期虽在，但小时间跨度内仍然是波云诡谲的，总有黑天鹅的出现。输赢都控制在10%以内。不管输到10%，或者赢到10%，你都学会坚决离场，即使在最顺的时候，也不要纠缠。\n在这个世上，能在赢时退场的人，才是真正的赢家。\n读懂大周期，是超级能力（知识），辅以在一段段的小时间周期里修心（情绪），不断磨练升级。\n结语\n努力跳到你的更高维度，不要做在褶皱纸面上行进被推得东倒西歪的虫。\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["物理"]},{"title":"身份证号码规则","url":"/%E8%BA%AB%E4%BB%BD%E8%AF%81%E5%8F%B7%E7%A0%81%E8%A7%84%E5%88%99.html","content":"\n地址码\n省份码\n\n\n\n华北\n北京\n天津\n河北\n山西\n内蒙\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n11\n12\n13\n14\n15\n\n\n\n\n东北\n辽宁\n吉林\n黑龙江\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n21\n22\n23\n\n\n\n\n\n\n华东\n上海\n江苏\n浙江\n安徽\n福建\n江西\n山东\n\n\n编码\n31\n32\n33\n34\n35\n36\n37\n\n\n华中/华南\n河南\n湖北\n湖南\n广东\n广西\n海南\n\n\n\n编码\n41\n42\n43\n44\n45\n46\n\n\n\n西南\n重庆\n四川\n贵州\n云南\n西藏\n\n\n\n\n编码\n50\n51\n52\n53\n54\n\n\n\n\n西北\n陕西\n甘肃\n青海\n宁夏\n新疆\n\n\n\n\n编码\n61\n62\n63\n64\n65\n\n\n\n\n台湾\n台湾\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n71\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n港澳\n香港\n澳门\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n编码\n81\n82\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n区县码\n每个城市有100个区号可用\n\n01~20 代表市辖区，县级市等\n21-80 代表县，旗林区等\n81~99 代表省辖县级市\n\n顺序码\n表示同一地址码范围内，出生人编订的顺序号，奇数分给男性，偶数分给女性。\n\n3位顺序码最多容纳1000人，500男，500女。举例编号005的男性其前面有2个出生，分别是001，003。\n超出500男/女则分不到合法的身份号码。这个问题概率很低。根据我国人口现状，历年人口统计，单区县一天出生人口达不到500个单性。\n\n疫情前2018中国每天出生人口4.17w左右，全国有1347个县级行政单位，那么平均下来，同日出生的新生儿数量约为31人。（历史人口出生最高峰是1963年的全国2959.3w，也只是 18 年的 2 倍不到）\n北京市20 年一年新生儿数量（户籍人口）是10万，平均到每一天才273人，更别说单独一个区县了\n实在当天不够用，编码生日提前一天或者延后一天，没多大影响的；或强行分配到邻区去占配额\n太多人口的区县则要单独建市改行政区划了，一个城市有 100 个区号可用，一个城市的每一天可以最大容纳：100x1000=10万新生人口。即便是我国的超一线城市：北京上海，也不可能出现一天出生十万人口的情况。\n\n\n\n区县人口之最\n\n\n中国人口最多的区县是苏州昆山市，县级市，七普人口 209w，排名中国第一。\n\n\n连大城市市辖区也看的话，第一名是上海浦东，面积 1210 平方公里，常住人口 568w，接近上海人口1/4\n\n\n24 年区县常住人口 Top25\n\n\n\n排名\n区县\n常住人口\n\n\n\n\n1\n上海-浦东\n578.58 万\n\n\n2\n深圳-宝安\n456.54 万\n\n\n3\n深圳-龙岗\n409.81 万\n\n\n4\n广州-白云\n369.56 万，占广州 20%\n\n\n5\n佛山-南海\n367.54 万，占佛山近 4 成\n\n\n6\n北京-朝阳\n343.9 万，占北京 15.8%\n\n\n7\n佛山-顺德\n323.78 万，占佛山1/3\n\n\n8\n北京-海淀\n312.5 万，占北京1/7\n\n\n9\n广州-番禺\n284.53 万，占广州 14.13%\n\n\n10\n上海-闵行\n271.66 万\n\n\n11\n深圳-龙华\n251.84万\n\n\n12\n重庆-渝北\n228.92万\n\n\n13\n北京-昌平\n227万\n\n\n14\n上海-宝山\n226.39万\n\n\n15\n广州-天河\n224.31万\n\n\n16\n郑州-金水\n221.64万\n\n\n17\n杭州-萧山\n216.4万\n\n\n18\n苏州-昆山市\n214.85万\n\n\n19\n西安-雁塔\n212.91万\n\n\n20\n泉州-晋江市\n209.1万\n\n\n21\n揭阳-普宁市\n203.43万\n\n\n22\n天津-滨海新区\n202.22万\n\n\n23\n北京-丰台\n201.1万\n\n\n\n青岛-黄岛\n200.78万\n\n\n25\n南京-江宁\n199.16万\n\n\n\n校验码算法\n采用ISO7064：1983，MOD11-2校验算法\nfunction checkIdCard(idCard) &#123;    //校验位字符对应的数字    var checkNum= [&#x27;1&#x27;,&#x27;0&#x27;,&#x27;X&#x27;,&#x27;9&#x27;,&#x27;8&#x27;,&#x27;7&#x27;,&#x27;6&#x27;,&#x27;5&#x27;,&#x27;4&#x27;,&#x27;3&#x27;,&#x27;2&#x27;];    //权重    var weight = [7,9,10,5,8,4,2,1,6,3,7,9,10,5,8,4,2];    //校验位    var checkCode = idCard.substring(17);    //前17位数字    var idCard17=idCard.substring(0,17);    //计算校验位    var sum=0;    for (var i=0;i&lt;17;i++)&#123;        sum += idCard17[i]*weight[i];        &#125;    var mod=sum%11;    //校验    return checkNum[mod] == checkCode;&#125;\n参考\n1.中国政府网 县及县以上行政区划代码（截止2010年12月31日） ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT"]},{"title":"软件哲学","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html","content":"\n希伯来最著名的故事或许是\n\n一位异教徒来到Rabbi Shammal【夏马尔】面前和他说：“要我改变信仰只有一个条件：那就是你在我单脚站立时教完Torah【'tɔ:rɑ:，希伯来文：תורה，意思是“教导、训诲”，圣经旧约之首五卷-律法书，通称摩西五经】的所有内容。”Rabbi Shammal将其赶走。\n然后他就来到Rabbi Hillel【希莱尔】（一个令其改变信仰的人）面前。Hillel告诉他，“勿对人做出连自己都憎恶之事，这就是Torah的全部；其它都是注释，你自己去学习。”\n\nRabbi Shammal有赶走这个异教徒的充足理由\n\n任何简化都只会误导。编写优秀的软件要比做出可靠的设计更复杂，细节就是魔鬼。\n\nRabbi Hillel没有赶走他也有充足的理由\n\n理解最本质的思想为接下来的所有细节提供了一个上下文关系。书籍多只给出一个框架性理解，其余的内容都融入到案例研究中。\n\n“单脚”注释了此种哲学\n确认你已理解问题，由小型的有才干的团队来实现解决方案，并且让你的客户告诉你如何改进它。这就是全部，其它的都是注释。\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT哲学"]},{"title":"软件工程-理念与修习","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B-%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%AE%E4%B9%A0.html","content":"\n『简约主义』\n异教徒说：能在单脚站立期间讲完 Torah （旧约之首第 5 卷）所有内容，就改变信仰！\n先知说：勿对别人做出连自己都憎恶之事，其它都是注释，你自己学习！\n理解最本质的思想为接下来所有的细节提供了一个上下文关系，初始的动机（Basic Idea）最为核心。\n理念篇\n可维护的重要性\n\n面向维护设计\n\n\nKISS原则+文档清晰\n\n\n系统的优化迭代与做新，会走到 $6 / 4$ 的比例上\n\n\n\n价值反馈提速\n\n商业模式/产品规划$\\rightarrow$需求分析$\\rightarrow$方案设计$\\rightarrow$开发$\\rightarrow$测试$\\rightarrow$上线发布$\\rightarrow$运营\n若软件生命周期是一个链路的话，过去 10 年软件行业在通过创新和实践在不断的加速反馈环。\n\n\n\n软件工程直面的问题：复杂性\n\n需求本身就是复杂的。编写优秀的软件要比做出可靠的设计更复杂（细节就是魔鬼）\n\n\n功能需求+非功能需求+约束条件\n\n\n非功能需求：性能、吞吐能力、故障恢复、兼容性、弹性、可用性\n\n\n约束条件：技术熟悉度、容量「并发服务能力、系统存储量」、成本、失败容忍度\n\n\n最大要对付的就是复杂性。面对复杂性做架构选择，有几个问题要先回答：\n\n熟悉的技术栈（我是谁）\n产品的发展阶段和规模带来的压力如何（我在哪）\n技术复杂度是首要问题了么？（我要干嘛）\n\n技术属性（搜索、视频）\n\n\n\n\n回应好了这些问题，才能做出更匹配的架构设计，保证初级阶段的成功\n\n复杂性的解药：拿来主义\n\n\n系统开发中常碰到险恶(Wicked)问题：只有通过解决或部分解决才能被明确的问题。\n\n\n分析你所能找到的所有类型系统、设计、代码\n\n\n经验表明：系统中 80%的部分应能找到参照系，能很大程度降低设计的难度和风险\n\n\n全面分析是最棘手的 – 需求和技术上\n面对重构同样是这样的原则：80%能工作，20%很烂，大部分改动奔着的目标是改进这 20%，却想推倒重来。控制住自己解决最核心的问题，比推倒重来要好。\n高质量软件的目标：面向维护的设计\n\n最小的复杂度：避免聪明但不易理解的设计（KISS），才能经得起进化考验\n易于维护：软件的生命周期更多在维护阶段\n松散耦合\n可扩展性：面向未来设计（对变更进行隔离）\n可重用性：为团队积累做出贡献\n高扇入，低扇出：力求封装被最大需求，最小依赖\n层次性：力求在任意层次观察系统，层次间互相隔离\n标准技术：力求引入最少的新技术\n\n做好设计有哪些要求\n\n事业开阔，避免造轮子\n难题解决能力\n行业经验带来的直觉和预见性\n庖丁解牛的切分和设计能力\n\n松耦合\n清晰并行\n不过度设计\n\n\n\n\n高阶的要求是一步到位的能力或计划路线图\n\n警惕过早的优化\n\n发于 1974 年的《The Art of Computer Programming》: premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.\n\nwe should forget about small efficiencies,say about 97% of the time: premature optimization is the root of all evil.Yet we should not pass up our opportunities in that critical 3%\nThe real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times;\n思维武器\n\n\n抽象：从概念提炼和概念学习中锻炼\n\n\n简化\n\n\n关注要素：要的是什么，子模块是什么\n\n\n隐藏细节\n\n\n\n\n分层：人类世界亦如此演化而来\n\n\n分治：Divide and Conquer，复杂问题的规模也来自于分形的组合，包括自然界的进化，也可以看作是分形和变异（大量无方向的并行开发试错）的结合。比大量的并行试错反馈环更好的机制，你能找到不？\n\n\n演化：尤其直面客户的互联网系统，三分设计，七分演化\n\n\n组织惯例与公共建设：干干净净也是组织惯例建设的一种\n\n\n\n设计上的完美并不是没有东西可以加了，而是没东西可以减。\n只有简单的体系，才能经得起进化\n\nKISS 放宽到哲学领域就是奥卡姆剃刀\nCTO 要求再进一步\n\n深刻的产品意识\n量化的技术意识\n精细的成本意识\n团队管理意识\n\n这是对架构师的一种更高要求，因为纯做技术的人，是做不了CTO的。喜欢做技术且又能把技术做好做深，当然可以一直做技术喜欢技术的同时，又有很好的视野，格局和情商，可以涉足其它领域。\n让正确的事情相继发生!\n从熵的角度看软件生命周期\n\n没有绝对的静止\n\n\n软件开发是减少混乱度（熵减）的过程\n软件维护是提高混乱度（熵增）的过程，是一个退化到非稳态的过程\n现实世界的混乱无序，投射到Cyber宇宙就是不断变换的需求\n架构设计如何适应（隔离）改变，是一个架构的关键特征\n\n最熟练的维护工作，也是放缓系统退化到非稳态的过程热力学第二定律（熵增）：随时间进行，一个孤立体系中的熵不会减小。\n熵的乱炖与惊喜\n热力学领域能被宏观观测的物理量非常有限，热量，压力，体积、温度。玩来玩去，都玩的差不多了，大家就开始务虚，进行理想实验，加减乘除，排列组合，只要单位合适，造出很多概念。一段时间内，统计物理横行，一大堆进行理想实验造出的参数被证实，熵这玩意跟系统的所有状态数是亲戚，且是相当直系的亲戚，log(所有状态数)。因为其统计解释的直观性，所以被推广到很多的领域，在信息论中，也是跨界的神作\n信息熵\n在数学上，负无穷和正无穷都是极限态，甚至接近一回事。信息熵的正无穷(说法太多，混乱)和负无穷（完全没资料）等同于差不多。\n举个例子，资治通鉴记周朝某年，赵伐魏。\n\n这么一条消息，你编外星人在齐国横行霸道抢掠民女都没关系\n鲁国天天吃喝玩乐，花花世界，事情太多，版本多多，算了，不记也罢。\n\n修习篇\n重构\n\n丢弃代码中的坏味道，做到干干净净\n重构的第一步就是建立一个有效的测试机制，好的测试机制可帮助重构\n不仅代码要重构，文档一样要鲜活和进化跟上\n\n设计模式\n\nOO流行起来后，解决特定问题（创建型，结构型，行为型）较好的编程实践总结。OO之前，大家用宏也耍的飞起。目标是低耦合的情况下隔离变化。\n\nOO使得封装理解起来更自然；继承使得关系看起来更自然；\n多态真正提供了应对变化的最强大能力\n\n\n它是一个 95 后（诞生于 1995 年）。与其同年的事物：Java和Javascript诞生，win95发布（干倒中文Dos系统），九五计划提出，64k专线接入美国，镭射录像厅爆发，PC躺在要脱鞋进入的空调间，新世纪福音战士播出，京九铁路全线贯通，提出计划经济往市场经济根本转变，粗放型向集约型转变。\n\nJava一直在浪潮里，Applet，JavaEE, Android。语法进步缓慢，但Java平台生态非常好。且在大型软件所需的要素：确定的理念，强依赖管理，整洁的接口，抽象化，优秀的文档工具方面表现突出\n\n\n设计模式在国内开始有讨论，差不多在02年。为啥，加入世贸，国内还要用IT武装自己提升效率。当时国内的开发理念与国外有8-10年的差距，IT化水平差距更大\n\n好在我国人多码农多，追赶的特别快，除去基础能力，在互联网界的应用追赶到差不多只有一年差距的，部分超级应用已经赶超西方。\nweb开发当前疯狂攻城略地的时候，设计模式又没有那么热火朝天了\n\n\n\n领域设计模式\n\n对特定领域问题进行抽象挖掘，形成解决方案套件\n积累领域经验\n\n独孤四剑\n\npartition everything:how do you eat an elephant\nasync everywhere : good things comes to those who wait\nautomate everything\nremember everything fails: be prepared\n\n精进：持续学习\n\n领域太过专业化，一段时间后，可能会发现自己的专业已经陈旧了\n除了把工作中用到的技术掌握好，还应学习其它的语言和平台\n至少要掌握两门以上的编程语言，才能相互印证，融汇贯通（现在单一编程语言几乎干不成任何事）\n追求卓越，让事情变得更好，而不是追求完美\n\n生活的召唤，永远是我们前进中最好的原动力\n视野扩宽非常有必要。每天就面对那么几个人，经理就是监工，客户就是傻叉，每个角色都被自己设定好了，就把自己的范围设窄了，这就不好突破了\n结合自己的学习风格\n弄清楚自己属于哪一类，与自己的学习风格配套努力，才能得到好的更好的效果\n结语\n泰山不拒细壤，故能成其高\n江河不拒细流，故能成其深\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["职涯"]},{"title":"软件的体重","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%93%E9%87%8D.html","content":"\n塞班的失控\nNokia的没落，是科技史上的大败局事件。除了大家熟知的战略决策层面问题，讲个小故事，瞅瞅还有哪些背后的玩意儿导致了它的帝国覆灭。\n\n故事来了：\n\n一位Nokia的退休主管讲：我有一部E71，在手机锁机状态下，会弹出个对话框盖住提示信息。我问：“能把这个弄小5毫米吗？”。\n他们研究了一下手机代码说“找不到那行可以将它缩小5毫米的代码，手机上有2000w行代码（2000w行的代码量已经接近windows xp），找到它是不可能的。”\n仅仅改动一个对话框尺寸都会如此，说明事情已经到了失控的边缘。\n软件的体重\n软件的体重就是代码量。现代软件工程的各种规则，框架和工具保证我对代码的控制能力。与此同时，实践的越多，你会更加意识到方法的界限：没有魔术可以减小真正的复杂度。\n\n能反映复杂度的代码量增加一倍，维护成本要增加很多倍。而一个开发好的系统，可能开发人员1个，后续的维护人员占据就要到1-1.5个之间，亦或更多，除非你说旧系统砍掉或不管，否则不断的演化就是人力黑洞(软件开发是一场长跑，你是胖子当然跑起来比较费力，软件的维护成本通常占总成本的40%-80%)。\n当然阻碍Nokia翻身的还是其作为曾经成功的公司所培养起来的现代官僚主义。很多公司都不能幸免，包括大型的互联网公司，也是不断在于这样的文化搏斗，斗不过就危险了，这些组织上的癌症要是打不过你，也就没有行业新旧的兴替了。\n从类比生态系统的进化来说，组织患上病症是正常不过的事情，是衰老的天命。只是某些公司的治理比较聪明有效，是超级赛亚人，青春期长一些。天才是超级赛亚人，不常出，故珍贵。\n感想\n大家多数时候是在用工具工作，对工具的生存历史都不太关心，觉得作为从业人员，缺少一点点这方面的八卦精神也是不好的，或许说明不是真正的热爱，咱也看到了八卦起历史来，微观层面总有精彩故事。：）\n教训经验\n\n\n再次重申KISS圣经\n\n\n软件开发是长跑，不断锻炼自己，保持一个轻体重，或通过SOA好好治理吧\n\n\n兴衰是常事，看《浪潮之巅》你能懂更多\n\n\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT哲学"]},{"title":"软件的信心","url":"/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83.html","content":"\n要上线的系统你坐先\n\n心头之问\n\n面对功能强大、日益复杂，给人顶级体验的”过山车“系统，其安全保障也是非常之事，开发者对代码的信心来自哪里？\n在给”过山车“添砖加瓦交付的时候，你有如下经历吗？\n\n上线也像坐过山车\n你亲手打造的过山车，自己是否亲身体验过？\n是否对测试同事说：你们先上去坐坐看，遇到问题再下来找我？\n\n当自己不敢坐，代码要靠测试老师兜底，就说明工作还有待提升空间。反之说明，你作为一个开发者你已经相当优秀了。\n单测篇\n如何建立对自己代码的信心\n借外力\n启动前做充分检查：代码评审、让资深人员 (老法师) 帮把关，及时发现问题\n练内功\n零部件测试（单元测试），保证每一部分在各种场景下都可以正常工作或异常处理得当\n对单测的看法\n质疑声\n\n常有的声音，尤其在业务变化快的互联网行业：\n\n有必要做吗？\n做到多少合适？\n现在没做不也挺好吗\n\n实际遇到线上问题需要消耗多少工时？保守估计下面一套下来几个人日是底线值了。\n\n找bug，修bug上线\n修复数据问题\n复盘闭环规避 (文书工作)\n\n所以常说：发现的越晚，修复耗时越久。编码阶段分钟级、功能测试小时级，发布后就不可控了。【缺陷发现越到交付流程后端，修复成本就越高】\n定性来看\n写单测抱怨耗时多、可用维护也耗时，但集成测试阶段跟踪调试问题，解决时效被拖长。\n单测高覆盖的长周期好处\n每次代码改动后可提前发现改动引发的其它关联问题，软件质量更有保障，节省后续同事的精力，拉长周期看效率更高\n单测的FIRST原则\n\n看看就好，完全犯不着记\n\n\nFAST，快速\nIndependent，独立\nRepeatable，可重复\nSelf-Validating，自我验证\nThorough/Timely，彻底、及时\n\n现状及特点\n现状\n\n从行业特点看：传统行业软件（ERP，CRM等）单测覆盖率至少达到80%以上，互联网行业较低，一般低于50%，大部分没有\n从软件特点看：用户量较大的软件（工具类，中间件等）基础软件覆盖率相对较高，80%以上，需求变化快的业务类软件较低\n从开发习惯看：国外开发的软件较高，多数开源软件覆盖率至少60%以上。国内开发者多数未养成习惯\n\n例如我所在的项目环境全量代码单测分支覆盖率普遍看低于30%，质量主要靠测试兜底。这还是在考核变更代码行单测覆盖率的情况下，很多考核流于表面，只看覆盖率，不看通过率。我随处可见运行报告中，用例通过率只有50%，但依然统计生成行覆盖率，而不是中止。另外用例普遍断言宽松，实际并不能达到改动自测的效果。\n痛点\n\n\n开发者需投入更多工作量：单测代码行数与应用功能代码至少1:1，复杂应用则更高。随着单测覆盖率的提升，每提升1%，都需要大量的用例。因为后续用例至少有80%甚至90%以上的代码运行路径是重叠的，最坏的情况是增加一个用例，只多了一个覆盖\n\n\n存量代码数量庞大：见上一条\n\n\n单测代码容易失效：单测代码需要持续维护，当业务需求引发的失效要么忽略，要么删除。如此情况下，很难维持一个较高的覆盖率指标。\n\n\n归根到底，就是成本问题。\n这道菜原始原料是 开发者持续投入大量精力(克制牺牲一定要见到实际好处才可持续，但这条维度在任何公司都排不到第一位考核上，它不是直接第一线的结果指标)\n自动化解药\n静态代码分析\n单测自动化以前主流是靠静态代码分析，找出代码隐藏的错误和缺陷，有EvoSuite，Squaretest等\n\n\n此类产品生成的单测行覆盖率一般可达到30%左右，代码越复杂效果越差\n\n\n好处是安装即可用，还支持多种开发平台：idea，eclipse，命令行等\n\n\n缺陷是：生成代码质量不高，覆盖率不高。一些有丰富业务语义的信息，难通过静态分析生成有效的用例代码\n\n\n大模型\n代码大模型也是一条路，但当前阶段没看到大范围铺开，其实飘出的尚未足够革命/实用的味道，在业务语义丰富的方法场景生成效果也不可用\n\n每次生成的结果都理解一致无法保证\n生成的结果需人工修订，断言需大量人工工作，使其可用\n无法解决系统间集成代码的自测验证用例覆盖\n\n录制回放\n将录制数据转化为单元测试用例，获得更加丰富的业务数据，而不是通过一些策略生产数据\n此种方案有一个口实弊病：违反了及时性原则，应该在写代码时/提测前完成啊，后录制已经晚了。是的，它不是理论上完美的。\n优势\n\n\n存量代码收效大，能快速提升覆盖率\n\n\n新代码，开发本地运行程序自测，录制，而后基于生成的用例，复制，调整快速扩充，也能保证及时性\n\n\n接口层级用例录制回放\n\n调和这碗意见不一致的羹汤\n\n函数执行逻辑中通常包含 普通函数，外部系统调用两类。其中外部系统调用也含数据库操作。当下微服务时代，系统间的交付变得日益复杂，过度依赖外部服务很难保障用例执行成功。\n当前单测框架多采用了mock技术，屏蔽外部服务的依赖，如mockito、powermock、spock等。通过接口录制生成单测，帮开发者回顾找到代码里的bug，通过自动化技术建立单测的信心，软件的信心。\n方案优劣势\n\n\n正：用例编码量较少，实现速度快，业务执行路径被测试到，单测覆盖率指标不受影响\n\n\n反：用例失败场景定位较慢\n\n\n学究派肯定会有疑问？这样做跟集成测试阶段自动化用例有啥区别？\n是的，从效果上看是一样的，只不过将运行前移到了开发阶段。\n如何做？\n每个用例方法对应一个Json/自定义格式文件[非Json反序列稳定性更有优势]，记录出入参，全部外部调用的数据。\n用例代码和数据均由工具自动生成。大部分代码都是在帮开发者将录制的数据组装Mock对象，这部分工作量在实际开发中是最大的，因此可大幅减轻开发者自己手工编码工作。\n当需要手工扩充用例时，只需将用例方法和数据复制一份，再对数据做出调整即可制作出新的用例。\n挑战：\n\n用例的采样控制，重复用例的识别与剔除。\n基于动态代理技术实现代码的特殊处理，如mybatis，JSF\n结构化数据的录制与还原，复杂泛型的还原，复杂对象的序列化和反序列化\n底层技术如何使接入成本降低，减少对应用的入侵\n\n结语\n写单测这部分不是空谈，我们真有在实践，效果不错\n参考\n1.京东云 一台不容错过的Java单元测试代码“永动机” ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["软件工程","研发质效"]},{"title":"过早优化是罪恶之源","url":"/%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E4%B9%8B%E6%BA%90.html","content":"\n\nPremature optimization is the root of all evil。\nProgrammers waste enormous amounts of time thinking about, or worrying about, the speed of noncritical parts of their programs, and these attempts at efficiency actually have a strong negative impact when debugging and maintenance are considered. We should forget about small efficiencies, say about 97% of the time: premature optimization is the root of all evil.\nIn established engineering disciplines a 12 % improvement, easily obtained, is never considered marginal;\n—Donald Knuth 1974 《使用 goto 语句的结构化编程》\n\n保持简单\n简单化（避免复杂）永远都应该是你的头等目标。简单的程序让你写起来容易，bug更少，更容易维护修改，不要开发你当前用不到的功能。\n用最简单的办法让程序跑起来，这是你需要常常问自己的，也是第一点的实践保证\n避免过早的优化\n\n\n\n只有当你的程序没有其它问题，只是比你预期要慢时，你才能去考虑优化工作。\n\n\n只有当你的其它工作都做完之后，你才能去考虑优化问题。\n\n\n而且你只能根据经验做法来优化。对于小幅的性能优化都不应该去考虑，在成熟的工程学科中，能轻易获得12%的改进。\n\n\n效率的圣杯滥用导致程序员浪费大量时间去思考或担心程序中非关键部分的速度，而在考虑调试和维护时，这些提高效率的尝试实际上会产生强烈的负面影响。\n简略剖析\n1. 程序员多属于盲目乐观派，违反圣经KISS原则，可维护性维度定下降\n2. 过早优化容易让系统丧失扩展性\n\n需求发展总是动态的，优化是一种架构需求稳定后基于经验的静态思维的行动，过早做\n\n\n\n可能是浪费\n\n\n扩展性易受损\n\n\n\n应该在正确抽象层级进行优化\n\n3. 容易关注不重要的部分，而忽略行动和目标本身，造成项目进度失控\n","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT哲学"]},{"title":"逆向工程防护","url":"/%E9%80%86%E5%90%91%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%8A%A4.html","content":"\n何为逆向工程\n\n\n软件逆推，还原成一段段代码，找到其中的关键代码，篡改，破解，发现漏洞\n最好的例子就是盗版软件。开发者们累死累活写好的程序，分分钟被人逆向破解，植入广告和木马，重新打包成盗版\n正义的逆向者只是做安全研究，而非正义的逆向者却拿着这项技能四处干坏事牟利\n\n一方为防破解使出浑身解数\n一方为破解绞尽脑汁\n\n\n\n有哪些对抗逆向工程的手段\n\n加密和混淆\n反调试：调试器运行时出现错误或停止运行\n动态链接库保护\n数字签名防篡改，代码完整性保护\n运行环境保护：用虚拟化技术对软件运行环境进行保护，如沙箱技术，虚拟机等\n法律手段\n\n代码混淆\n\n代码混淆（Obfuscation） 是将电脑程序的原始代码或机器代码，转换成功能上等价，但难以被人阅读和理解的行为。\n\n加大阅读和理解的难度，以此来加强代码的保护\n甚至会在代码里加各种多余的垃圾指令和代码，把原来的逻辑拆分成个各种怪癖语法，达到防破解的目的\n\n怎么做？\n\n各种元素命名无意义化（名称混淆）\n代码缩减（删除注释，空格等）\n等价复杂化\n\n循环改递归\n精简中间变量等\n\n\n\n和加密的差异\n\n加密顾名思义是将想要隐藏的东西上锁\n混淆则不是，处理时，信息保持原样，只是以一种模糊的格式呈现出来。将复杂性提高到难以理解或解析的程度。\n\n逆向工程师死磕到底\n放弃破解转去破解更易破解的应用程序\n\n\n混淆只能增加难度，调试及除错也变得困难起来\n\n防Hook\n代码检测完整性，运行环境、框架检测等\n加壳\n\n利用特殊算法，对文件里的资源进行压缩，改变其原来的特征码，隐藏字符串等。使得一些资源编辑软件无法正常打开或修改，类似 winrar 的效果。只不过这个压缩后的文件，可独立运行，解压过程完全屏蔽，都在内存中完成\n解压原理：在文件头里加了一段指令，告诉 cpu，怎么才能解压自己\n相当于给可执行文件加个外衣，用户执行的是这个壳程序，外壳程序会把原来的程序在内存中解开，而后交给真正的程序\n\nApp 扫描与加固\n\n\nAndroid应用安全加固，使用 DEX VMP、DEX函数抽取加密及动态还原，DEX文件加壳，So 文件加固，核心代码转为二进制、H5 文件混淆、SDK 加固，资源文件完整性保护，防调试保护，签名校验，防截屏，防劫持等技术。使加固后的应用具备防逆向分析，防二次代码，防动态测试，防动态注入，防数据篡改等安全防护能力\n\n\nIOS 应用安全加固，使用常量字符串随机加密，等效指令替换，基本块分裂，基本块调度，虚假控制流，控制流扁平化，控制流间接化等技术，对 IPA 文件进行加固，活在 OC/C/C++/Swift代码编译的过程中对源码进行保护，增强加固后的应用的防逆向分析，防二次代码，防动态测试，防动态注入，防数据篡改等安全防护能力\n\n\nSDK 加固使用 DEX 加壳，DEX 源码分析及动态还原，DEX VMP、防调试技术对 AAR、JAR 文件进行加固，使加固后的 AAR，JAR 文件具备防逆向分析，防动态调试等安全防护能力；对于 So 文件，使用 So 加固技术；对于 IOS SDK，使用 IOS 源码混淆技术\n\n\nJava SDK 自定义解释器或用 Java Agent 技术活重写 class loader，对文件，方法进行加载时解密，确定是要修改运行环境，无法被其他项目兼容\n\n\n安全沙盒技术(virbox protector java VME保护技术)：SDK 中的字节码转换为自定义的虚拟机字节码，并将其替换成跳转代码，运行时跳转至自定义虚拟机中解释执行[1]\n\n\n\n\n\n\n反调试技术有哪些\n\n\n都可以检测当前进程是否被调试器附加，判定到调试器附加则终止程序\n\n有系统函数或标志位可以判断，有硬件断电检测技术，也可监视特定的库或文件\n\n\n\n利用流行调试器的漏洞，让调试器崩溃或无法正常工作（H5 也有类似做法）\n\n\n使用基于时间的检测技术，比较代码执行的实际时间和预期时间，有显著差异则终止\n\n都可使用硬件断点检测的技术，但实现不同，android 使用寄存器或内存地址来设置断点，IOS 使用调试寄存器来设置断点\n\n\n\n前端 H5 代码防护手段\n\n混淆压缩，如控制流混淆\n字符串加密，代码整体加密\n运行时保护\n\n域名锁定\n禁止控制台输出\n反调试\n\n无限 debugger，打断、阻止看代码。仅限于防静态分析\n禁止打开控制台\n\n\n\n\n\n参考\n1.sohu Java虚拟化加密保护 ↩","categories":["信息技术"],"tags":["IT","安全"]},{"title":"通用度量衡关系","url":"/%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F%E8%A1%A1%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB.html","content":"\n\n结论先行，度『长度』为度量衡的基石\n\n基本物理度量衡\n长度\n米最早是赤道到北极长度的4千万分之一，现在定义为光在1/299792458秒时间进程的长度\n海里还比较标准，地球1/60度行过的距离\n\n英寸在荷兰语中本意是大拇指，指指甲底部拇指的宽度，14世纪英皇爱德华二世颁布了标准合法英寸：从麦穗中选三粒最大的麦粒排成一排的长度，就是一英寸，看起来就发笑\n\n\n英尺与英寸是12进制，feet英尺听名字就那么俗，只是历史原因不会动\n\n重量\n1克初始定义为1立方厘米0摄氏度的水的重量，克单位太小，不适合日常使用，那么1千克就是1立方分米水的重量。后来继续修正，因为水在4摄氏度时密度最大，就改为4摄氏度时重量，这里用重量称谓其实不太准确，因为跟重力加速度有关，但发生在地球，度量衡就是这么诞生的，称谓质量更为合适\n力\n1牛顿=1千克物体获得1m/s的加速度所需的力\n\n容量\n1升=一立方分米或是10厘米见方的立方体的体积\n角度\n在观测每年的四季轮动时，360这个数更贴近与365天，那么古人更自然将圆的切分贴近每年的天数这个数字。\n\n在唐代，圆的角度是365.25度，一行在制作他的《大衍历》时就放弃了365.25度的数据，借用了印度的360度进行计算(印度的又从两河流域传过来)\n均分度数能被更多数整除是好的\n\n例如圆6等分的弦长=半径，那么均分度数应被6整除\n4等分（90度）建筑中常用，这个度数也应该能被4整除\n从2到10的整数，除了7之外，都是360的因数。也就是360可以被2、3、4、5、6、8、9、10整除。如果一定要包括7的话，最小的数是2520，这个数实在太大，而七等分圆的情况并不多见，所以最终定为360\n\n\n时间进制\n时间单位为12进制，相信跟一个太阳年月球盈亏几次有关，这样切分到一天也是12进制，另外，以大拇指掐算指节也是12，所以早期数学为12进制也较为自然。在远离计时钟的远古年代，小时的长度是随季节不同的，但是古人当时认为白天黑夜必各占12小时\n\n历史上有的族群用60进制，这个也自然，毕竟两只手（掐算指节）能方便计算的最大数就是60，或许一个小时的60分钟也就来源于此，太大太小恰恰都不利于计时，总不能用一刹那，一念，一瞬，一弹指这种计量单位吧，哈哈。\n地球转一圈24小时360度，每一度大约4分钟，也是一个恰当的duration感受单位\n\n怪异的12am\n在现在通行的英文标准体制中，12小时制，凌晨0点到1点之间，是写作12：xx AM，12：00PM指的是下午十分，显得有些不适应。\n\n拉丁字母缩写AM (ante meridiem 正午之前)，PM（post meridiem 正午之后）\n钟表盘面没有0，计时机制通行时，0这个数字还没传入\n\n有这么两种解释角度\n\n英语世界从洋媚外用了罗马人拉丁字母缩写，但罗马人用AM是表示正午前多少小时，1AM是正午前1小时即11：00，12AM和12PM都是指00：00，英语世界的人拍脑袋用错了，将错就错\n指针式钟表的钟面0：30是读成12：30，从钟面没有0的这个直接性上，亦得自然。AM和PM权当做上下午的区分，下午时段由中午到午夜。\n\n温度\n华氏是一个很不科学的度量，可能跟当时采用的水银计的制作和水银充盈量有关，基本已被全球弃用。1摄氏度即为水冰点到沸点的1/100的划分。\n能量\n1焦耳=1牛顿的力前进1米所做的功\n一卡=1克水在标准大气压下提升1摄氏度所需的热量，1大卡就意味着1公斤水提升1摄氏度\n1千卡=1000卡=4184焦耳，简单来算，1卡是4.2倍的焦耳量\n功率\n1瓦特（w）=1焦耳/秒\n1度电=3600000焦耳=860.4千卡\n100w灯1小时 0.1度电，1天2.4度=2064千卡\n社会代谢率\n对我们人类而言，每天需要大约2000大卡的食物热量，这相当于100w的代谢率，和一只白炽灯的电功率相当\n但除此之外，我们还需要住房，暖气，灯光，汽车，道路，飞机，计算机等，举例支持一个普通人在美国生活所需的代谢率增至惊人的1.1万瓦特，这一社会代谢率相当于大约12头大象的需求总量，在从生物向社会动物转变过程中，我们的总人口从几百万到了现金的70亿＋，能源和资源危机就不足为奇了。\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["物理"]},{"title":"阅读-表达-写作的训练","url":"/%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB-%E8%A1%A8%E8%BE%BE-%E5%86%99%E4%BD%9C%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83.html","content":"\n\n主体内容来自于吴军博士的得到App课程《阅读与写作50讲》\n\n理工科的人，不善言辞是一个常见标签，奈何中国历来推崇敏于行而讷于言[《论语·里仁》]，语文教育中一直比较单一未做纠正。随着职业到了一定的阶段，你会越发的发现，做事与表达是二位一体的，理解他人表达自己仍然是人的一张王牌，是底层能力。\n\n就像梁宁的产品思维30讲里提到的，产品能力也是每个人的底层能力，是一个人学习建立认知框架的过程。建立信息秩序，再建立内心秩序，在一片纷杂里，你会知道自己该放弃哪个点，抓住哪个点， 慢慢建立起掌控\n\n我开始切切实实的留意关注如何表达是最好的，而不是像儿时一笑而过能解决所有事情。这个过程也没有捷径，如写作一样，写什么不重要了，终极的专业的要求是有自己的风格，你追赶去学某人已经来不及了，做出你自己的风格就好。\n先说口头表达\n让自己的话更吸引人，真正达到表达自我的目的，这个要求可不低\n\n口头表达听众大致听了5分钟就走神，你说精彩的表现难不难\n\n平静而有节制的讲话方式很重要，因为只有那么讲出来，大家才会相信你讲的内容。另外，公众表达时，最好语速要比平时慢20%~30%，一是考虑到你准备的熟练度的问题，二是不要忽视了听众的信息接收能力与互动观察。\n\n明智的沟通者会观察间隙，停顿以及迟疑，他们听得到沉默，读的懂沉默。他们将停顿看作交叉路口的黄色信号灯，有时候，沟通中真正重要的信息埋没在沉默中。\n好的口头表达特征\n有的放矢\n\n好的口头表达，要有侧重点\n\n\n\n最重要的主题讲，其余都不讲\n除非你和听众都有很多的时间，你讲什么内容比郭德纲讲段子还好听，否则不要试图一次讲很多内容，最好一次只讲一个主题。如果内容删到再删这次讲话就可以取消了，那就差不多了。不舍得删，就挑一个最重要的\n\n\n能讲清楚的讲，讲不清或太花时间的不讲\n做学术报告的原则是，永远不要试图在有限的时间里，讲那些需要花很长时间解释，且容易引起大家疑问的结果，哪怕这个结果你看起来好的不得了。\n这个世界并非你做了一件牛事告诉大家，别人就觉得你牛，而是大家听明白了你的贡献，对此无异议，才觉得你牛，哪怕那个贡献看上去不那么大\n\n\n好的口头表达，要有对象感\n跟写书不一样，口头表达是对特定对象说话的，以一个对方愿意接受的方式传递信息，比用自己觉得最精彩的方式去讲，效果要好很多，讲话一定要看对象，“见人说人话，见鬼说鬼话”，并不是毫无道理。\n永远用对方懂得的事情和概念，去解释和形容新的事情。\n\n\n吸引力法则\n\n\n善用对比和类比\n\n比喻的价值绝不只是使语言生动形象，亲切自然，它是我们传递思想，把别人不知道的东西讲清楚的重要工具\n\n\n\n趣味性的废话\n\n从信息传播的角度讲，口语表达，如果讲的全是干货，听众接受的速率，是跟不上讲话人的，适当增加趣味性的废话是需要的\n\n\n\n避免竹筒倒豆子\n\n讲东西像写小说，要预设一些后面的场景，而不是像竹筒倒豆子一样把话讲完，而是等对方好奇提问后，以解答的方式把自己的意思继续表达下去。这样对方会感觉到，你传递过去的信息，不是你强加给他的，而是他的好奇心得到了满足\n\n\n\n做报告的注意原则\n\n最佳是小问题说成大问题，甚至把大成就说成小成绩。这就如同一个将军，所夸耀的伟大胜利不过是杀敌10人，再怎么吹大家也不会觉得了不起，反而把他定格在伟大胜利=杀敌十人了。相反，如果把自己的小问题说成大问题，而且表现的不虚伪，对方会觉得你是一个对自己标准定的很高的人\n控制报告时长的最简单办法，就是严格按照一张PPT 2分钟讲，如果做15分钟的报告，只准备7张PPT，不要太多\n若作为经验布道者，开场可以收集一系列问题，作为后续答疑解惑的依据和发挥影响力及针对性施教的抓手，看到很多培训课程是如此的套路，不无道理。\n报告不重过程，只重结论。大家阅读报告，是希望在短时间里了解结论，而不是自己花很多时间再做一次研究，因此，对于数据的解读很重要。\n综述类报告，要考虑读者群，因读者水平参差不齐，内容上需要做必要的背景知识介绍，在使用概念时做必要的解释。如果你读IEEE杂志的综述报告，会发现作者会用很多比喻来说明新的概念，而不是做字面上的解释。这种内容在论文里完全是浪费篇幅，但在报告中却是必要的。\n\n发言容易大脑空白？\n皆因准备不够\n\n名人轶闻：丘吉尔说，如果让他作2分钟的演讲，要准备半个月；5分钟的演讲，要准备一个星期；而一个小时的演讲，则不需要准备，立即就可以开始。\n\n名人现身说法1\n吴军博士的导师库旦普教授算是表达能力极强的人一人了，其准备报告也极为认真，无论是15分钟，还是一小时的。一个15分钟的报告，也要准备一两天，不仅PPT要反复修改，而且每一张PPT结束的时候，该停一秒钟，两秒钟，还是不停，都是设计好的，有时候觉得听众可能听完要想一下，他就会停2秒钟不说话，有时候，他需要讲一句俏皮话做过渡，全是设计好的。每一次讲的内容都会背的滚瓜烂熟。\n名人现身说法2\n谷歌搜索和人工智能的高级副总裁，美国工程院院士辛格博士，作报告之前，都要请同事事先听一听，提一提意见，早年他认为自己有口音，怕说话，在跟任何人谈话前，都回把要谈的内容写下来，包括和同事间5分钟的谈话，久而久之，他就能讲了。从这个例子来看，任何人做报告的时候，即使不能把内容背的滚瓜烂熟，讲什么至少要写在纸上，最不济，咱们可以拿出来念。\n现身说法3\n吴军博士举了他一个朋友的例子，这个朋友每次开派对，四五个小时就听他一个人讲，且大家听完觉得收获还很大，他跟女朋友在一起，从早上到深夜，能说十几个小时，还能让对方感觉意犹未尽。后来才得知，这个朋友哪怕派对上，准备讲什么笑话，讲什么严肃的内容，从哪里切入，都写在了纸上，有想不起来，会找个借口去洗手间看看。和女朋友在一起，也是这么做的，正是因为他做足了准备，所以在别人面前才显得轻松自如。\n总结\n很多人看到人能讲的现象，没有看到所谓能讲的人在背后准备所花的时间。\n所以，任何人，多准备，多练习，口头表达的能力就可以提高。准备得是真正的充分的准备，而不仅仅是自己觉得准备好了。我们可以看下面两个步骤\n\n把要讲的东西写处理啊，讲话的时候，实在想不起来就念稿子\n事先做几次预演，让一些同事，朋友提意见，当然自己讲什么要提前背熟。讲完后，问问同事和朋友的反馈。\n\n再说写作\n没有专职作家的目标，也难追赶拥有华丽文笔，所以不摘录结构等深度话题（就像电影讲故事的模式很多样，甚至烧脑），只谈基本意识\n\n书面表达只要能够不断吸引读者跟着作者的思路走，行文逻辑可以搞得很复杂，而且未必需要重点放在前面。\n书面表达在论述上常采用的两个手段是“层层递进”和“剧情大反转”\n\n基本功\n观察日记咋写\n找个有趣新鲜的题材写，写的好坏并不重要。很多小学生都被要求写观察日记，却憋半天写不出来。其实写观察日记就像用手机拍张有趣的照片，然后将一句文字说明那么简单。拍什么不重要，关键是你自己拍的，而且要说清楚什么时候，在哪里，为什么拍它，就可以了。\n每一个让我们感觉到“原来如此”或者“原来不过如此”的见闻，都是很好的写作题材。写下你的印象和感受，或**用一个特点聚焦镜头联想挖掘**，水到渠成很容易\n主题突出\n书面表达和口头表达不一样，没有机会辩解，好的记录写作应要让主题画面足够突出，这时你要是后悔没仔细观察事后想不起细节，为了凑字数扯一些脱离主题没用的事情，就像要通过增加背景来增加像素。\n此时其实最好的办法是做一次剪裁，把没用的画面裁掉，这样得到的图片可能像素不高，但是表达的目的能达到。\n为主题安排线索\n记录一件事情要有线索，但线索替代不了主题。说明一个观点也要如此，会有整体看法态度，这是轮廓，然后有支持它的证据，这是细节。这些细节不是以清单的方式罗列，而是要根据一条线索展开。\n对象感有的放矢\n为了让对方和我们一起产生共鸣，写东西的时候还要看对方是谁，还要以对方的认知体系为前提进行交流，做到有的放矢\n下笔卡壳无神？\n\n说人话就是，对一个东西不能很好组织语言进行表达\n\n\n\n收集写作所必需的素材，否则你肯定是“憋”，有感而发，有别人没有的素材才能写的精彩\n\n\n参考之前人写类似题材的经验，从经典作品取经\n\n\n先搭架子，再填内容（文字和结构写好，比文字优美重要）\n\n先把想写的东西都列出来，看看如何基于那些想法搭个架子。\n\n\n\n在搭架子的过程中，你就会发现，很多想写的内容其实和这个架子无关，那这时候你就要提醒自己，坚决不要写这些内容。\n\n\n另一种情况是很多人把想写的东西搭出一个架子后，发现凑不出一篇完整的文章，也会有些憋的感觉。类比于拖延症，这还是因为你定了一个超出自己的要求。\n\n\n没毛病老铁，写的辛苦写的累说明你在走上坡路。先把架子放在那，你可以逐项填入内容，先把容易写的或者能写的盘下来，回过头来再补前面卡主的内容。在学习写作的阶段，很多人写着写着卡壳了是常有的事，客观上来讲也没有必要从头到尾一气呵成，你又不是天才。\n从工程学里来讲，有架构设计是非常必要的，可以避免推翻重写的情况（普通人肯定是边写边想边调整），另外把大目标分解为小动作（小问题），其实是非常重要的能力来着。\n\n\n写的好离不开阅读量\n清华教艺术史的王乃壮教授讲，当初徐悲鸿先生对他们的要求，是需要了解至少500个艺术家的风格，这样才会产生自己的风格。类比至阅读量来说，是一样的道理，你能写的好，离不来广泛的接触和临摹。\n阅读和知识体系建立\n\n读书世界就在眼前，不读书眼前就是世界（价值由身边人决定，模仿周边被环境固定）\n\n人不是天生有阅读能力，严肃读物的阅读习惯，更需要后天的训练和培养，他会让人受益终身，这个能力，光靠浏览网页或社交媒体可不够。兼顾阅读的广度和深度，一个人的阅读应该分层。\n品味的基准线\n阅读的品味是土壤，有什么样的土壤长出什么样的植物。深度阅读是根系，细读是枝干，大量浏览是树冠，一颗漂亮的树要枝叶繁茂，光秃秃的没人喜欢，树叶回落了再长，大量浏览的书籍文章可能很快就忘掉了，但是只要有好的阅读习惯，很快又枝叶茂盛了。\n建立知识体系这件事的成本其实不是花钱多少，主要是要考虑时间成本和收益比。无论是对已知的还是未知的领域，建立知识体系从正统的观点出发，恰恰是效率最高的做法。从互联网上找好内容太高，若是将旁门左道的内容当做主流来读，品味就很难提高了。读经典文学作品的意义也是找到基准线。\n经典之所以是经典，是因为作品讨论的问题是穿越时空的，且用平实（或优美）的语言写出警句。\n阅读的分层\n深读，细读，浏览 三个层面。\n深度阅读是为了把一本书读透后，用它的内容构建我们整个知识体系和认知的框架及去伪存真，很多教科书就值得深读。在阅读的分层中，用于典藏的书，需要深度，不断反复阅读；用于实现知识完整性细读的书，有助于建立自己的知识图谱，翻翻浏览的书，可以用于扩大视野。\n客观看待书籍的信息度\n2/3的书，都是浏览一下就好，一本书哪怕只得两三页纸有用的信息，就不算浪费。你将你做过记号的内容章节剪下来保存，剩余的扔掉都没问题。有时候了解信息来说，杂志比书更有效。\n约翰霍普金斯大学的老师雅让斯基，藏书量很大，但95%也不过是浏览过而已。从他的话上来说，绝大部分的书，不值得仔细读。\n但阅读量大是有好处的，除了扩宽知识面，更重要的是能保证自己的想法客观中立（如果只了解一个作者的观点，就有可能被他牵着鼻子走）。任何专业人士想做到一流，必须对所在的领域有全面的了解，既要有知识面的宽度，又要对某些问题有深度的理解。\n带着体系目标读，避开读书的风险\n读书太多，容易让你与外界隔离，且获得一种超越现实的价值观，却得不到现实的承载，最终面临矛盾的价值观，经历蜕变和痛楚。知道的太多，发现现实只是一口井，你也不如青蛙快乐，最终你要么得到海洋，要么懂得妥协并视为艺术。所以读太多也是有风险的。你的目标应该是构建一种自己想要的知识体系，并像美国的大语文教育一样注重在实际生活中的应用，哪怕拿这个去当老师给人讲课挣钱或传播观点呢\n读书不应代替交流\n读书也没有那么高尚，优雅，时尚，和不同时空的人聊天而已。当你有一个困惑，排在首位的解决办法是向高人求教，其次是和朋友碰撞聊天，最后才是读书。说白了，读书是没有办法的办法，是我们和古人或没有办法谋面的当世高人交流的唯一途径。但是它不能超越任何人的交流，它只是其中一种方式而已，且不是最高效的。\n构建知识体系的方法总结\n\n进入陌生领域，第一步要从正统文献或作品开始（基准线）\n针对正统知识过时的问题，要对基准线进行修正，可以看近10年权威的综述文章，一个领域读5篇就有大致的了解。走正统的好处是，便于和专业人士交流。其实判断一个人专不专业，不是看其上大学学的什么，而是看他是否和专业人士经常交流，融入了专业人士的圈子\n知识体系的第三部就是有趣的专著。现在的书经常要走的观点鲜明，偏激，你要知道鲜明有新意的观点并不等于正确，有时恰好相反。但你有了基准线，这些鲜明的观点对你的帮助和触动可能就很大，且不会将你带偏。\n\n补充知识\n阅读速度的理论上限\n通过对脑科学和认知科学的研究，人一秒钟能接受的信息大约100-200个比特，换算成汉字，就是大约12-25个，如果阅读速度真能到这么快，那么一分钟能读700-1500个汉字，也就是32开的书1到2页，一本400页的小说4-7个小时就读完了。但是一般人，达不到这个速度。\n偏差的原因\n眼睛和脑子一同识别文字图像的速度不同。阅读文字，我们眼睛看到的是图像，脑子需要做一次图像识别，才能理解词汇。\n如果我们的眼睛分辨率非常高，真能做到一目十行，图像识别的速度也会快一些。不幸的是，我们眼睛视网膜只有中心区域分辨率高，也就覆盖我们眼睛前方大约 1  度角的范围。一度角有多大？你把手臂伸直，竖起食指，食指的宽度大约就是1度角。也就是说你把书放那么远，大约一次能看清四到五个汉字，如果书捧的近一点，不过三个字而已。我们看到的画面有几十度宽啊，那其实是我们人脑合成出来的图像。看过魔术表演的朋友会有这样的体会，你眼睛越盯着魔术师的手，越看不清他的把戏，因为它的手速太快，你的眼镜和大脑来不及合成图像。\n人眼和脑子是无法天生同步的，眼睛一扫而过，脑子往往跟不上。这是人的生理极限，没有办法改变。\n训练提高阅读速度\n生理极限可以通过训练来接近（实验室可以用眼睛不动，屏幕上的字缓慢移动，且中心区域字体加亮的方式来大大提速阅读速度，毕竟平时做不到这样）。\n\n书不要捧的太近\n默读能帮助眼睛扫描和脑子理解做到同步，用默读的节奏来控制眼睛扫描的速度，只要脑子稍微想一下读音即可不是真默读，经过练习后，看到熟悉的词组，可能读了前两个音节，整个词组就识别完了，眼睛就直接跳到下一个词组了。\n\n读书越多，图像识别的速度越快，但遇到一个生字卡壳，速度马上就会降下来。遇到不认识的词，不要停，跳过去。阅读并不需要理解每一个词，从段落里扣除30%的文字，不管是人还是计算机都无法理解，但如果扣掉10%，计算机理解要差点，但受到良好教育的人，基本上能恢复全部信息。几个词不认识，不会影响人阅读，有问题，读到几次后，自然就学会了。\n简而言之，提高阅读速度，要做到有意识地阅读，提高对文章结构和有用信息的敏感度。关键还在于脑和眼的配合，而语音是帮助眼和脑同步的辅助工具，再者稍微把书拿远一点，不仅对视力有好处，还有助于提高读速。\n结语\n今天不再是过去的熟人社会，而逐渐成为生人社会，讷于言不再是美德。离开学校的人，如果没有接受这方面的训练，要及早补上，家长可以注意，比如吃晚饭的时候，让孩子讲讲自己的作文是怎么写的，聊聊对一些问题的看法。\n大语文教育，应该重视口语表达，重视严肃读物的阅读量，注重语文在实际生活中的运用。\n\n浅入浅出是没学问\n浅入深出是假学问\n深入深出是小学问\n深入浅出是大学问（言论观点意义深刻，语言文字浅显易懂）\n\n\n这个世界充斥着假学问和小学问，作为起了个大早的罗辑思维用户，后来弃跟也是觉得里面到处是简单问题复杂化，落入了假学问的阵法，还有一种可能因素自己的能量密度或野心配不上，但收获已是很多。\n\n","categories":["读书笔记"],"tags":["软技能"]},{"title":"阶层思维差异","url":"/%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html","content":"\n阶层思维方式差异\n\n可以说是一种思维进化吧\n\n底层思维\n叫做“我有一个痛苦”。上班嫌挣钱少，炒股嫌亏钱，做饭嫌麻烦，吃外卖又嫌送得慢。\n眼中满是不幸和痛苦，心中充满憎恨和委屈，只有这种心态一辈子难以爬出底层。\n穷人思维\n开始意识到不幸都是自己造成的，开始进化到&quot;我有一个梦想&quot;，知道怨天尤人没用，自己的生活要靠自己创造，但空有梦想，却不落地执行，总是在等待，等待时机，学习经验，积累人脉，看似很努力，其实都瞎忙。\n他们永远不开始，因为它们没有勇气，他们恐惧失败，他们看起来不安于现状，但潜意识仍然害怕改变。一旦穷人行动起来，他们就变成了第三层，中产思维。\n\n\n改变自己最快的方式，就是逼自己去做自己害怕的事。你想堕落没人拦着你，可你想出人头地，拦你的人可多的了，首当其冲就是你自己。\n像高山滑雪一样，你不理解那些人怎么在这么多树的里面滑雪。如果你心里讲的是不要撞到树，不要撞到树，那么你眼中看到的都是树。你难免会撞上。但你想的是，看着雪滑，看着雪，那么你唯一能看到的就是雪道了。如果你专注在障碍物上，你看到的都是障碍，这是人脑的模式决定的，人脑是不太能处理negative的句子的。同理，如何看待你的工作其实是你自己的选择。\n\n夸一个穷人如何节俭，如同夸一个太监如何高尚坐怀不乱一样无耻。\n中产思维\n叫做&quot;我有一个目标&quot;，梦想是遥不可及的，目标却是可实现的可执行的。\n梦想是成为大富豪，目标是明年先赚一百万，中产就能把这个先赚100万的这个目标拆分成我现在应该怎么做，应该加入什么行业，做什么生意，开始考察项目，联系自己的朋友和陌生人，看有没有合作的可能。\n目标是终局思维，是以终为始，倒推路线，就像地图导航一样。\n富人思维\n真正的富人思维是当你设定好目标全力冲刺时，你会遭遇惨痛的失败，会发现这个世界的随机性是如此之强，能否达成目标并不取决于你的努力程度，运气，资源，能力都十分重要。\n你努力努力再努力，失败失败再失败，接下来有两种可能。\n\n\n第一是你放弃了退回到穷人思维，你仍然有一个梦想，但你不行动了。心理学管这种状态叫做习得性无助，因为你认为你怎么努力也没用，穷人没出路阶层固话，这辈子就这样了。你仍然有梦想但再也不会有勇气。\n\n\n第二种可能就是你顿悟了，你明白了真正的富人思维，可叫它“我有一个方法”，富人知道世界充满随机性，努力不一定有回报，设立目标也不一定能实现。\n\n你计划两个月后减肥十斤，于是你每天跑5公里，一天只吃2两白菜和3个苹果，两个月你却只瘦了两斤，你失败了；\n你计划明年多开发10个新客户，老客户续费率维持在50%，同时探索自己的副业，做一个自媒体，但明年疫情，公司把你开除了，你又没找到新的工作，你失败了。\n似乎你设立的目标能否完成根本不取决于你自己，一切都是命运的选择，这时应该怎么办？这时你要活在当下，你的目标失败了，但你做的事情是不是正确的，每天跑5公里是不是一个好事，如果是，那就做。\n公司开除了你，你的自媒体还要不要做，做自媒体是不是一件好事，是不是有价值，如果是，那就做。\n\n\n\n忘记你的目标，因为你控制不了它。你能控制什么，你可以每天跑5公司，每天写一篇文章，每天打50个销售电话，你还可以反思和学习，提高写作水平，深入挖掘客户需求，这些是正确的有价值的事，那就做。富人有一套方法，他不知道这套方法什么时候能帮助他走向成功，但他知道使用这套方法，成功只是时间问题。\n\n巴菲特的方法叫做价值投资，一辈子都在寻找价格低于价值的股票，买入持有，不知道什么时候能成功，也不知道明年的收益率能到多少，他遵循的是自己的方法。\n每个参加奥运会的健将，都有自己的方法，他们的方法是科学的训练，严格的自律，勤奋的付出，甚至不知道能不能拿金牌，拿铜牌的运动员和拿金牌的运动员，同样值得钦佩，有时真的只是运气问题。\n\n所以同为人生，富人在熬，穷人在混。或者说一个在熬人性，一个在熬人生。熬伴随的是你的努力，等着一个又一个结果的出现，熬得是生命体验、是周期、是认知，是舍得，是一个修炼人性的过程，换个词也是格局和胸怀。\n独立思考的稀缺性\n大部分人因为穷和压力，所有没有独立思考能力。生活环境导致大家没有时间和精力从基础开始专注学习较为艰深的知识，学习是非常消耗专注力的。睡眠不足，环境嘈杂，琐事烦心等等，都会造成学习效率不足，人在步入社会后，依然需不断学习行业知识，人际交往，人事管理，投资管理，科学育儿等等。如果没有专深的知识，如何独立的思考，理性的思维？\n很多人读的书非常劣质，喜欢看一些学术混子的视频，信一些宏大叙事和阴谋论，原因不在于他们的理解能力，而在于生活各类琐事让他们没有精力去读和思考。这些劣质图书，视频浅显的内容，就是在迎合这些还想学习，但不具备学习环境的焦虑阶层，市场上有多少课程，打着从零开始，30天学会的旗号，学个解1元二次方程都得这么久，这些课程的知识该是如何肤浅。\n\n心理学研究发现，压力使人更容易相信宗教，非自然力，阴谋论和小道消息。贫穷和不平等会导致更虔诚的宗教信仰，更迷信阴谋论，成了恶性循环，生成了贫困引力。越贫穷的人，决策和思维越非理性，非理性更加贫穷。\n川建国的支持者们更相信选举阴谋论，愈加支持川建国。而更利于他们摆脱贫困的更加合理化和强势的再分配政策，却和他们的投票抵触。\n日本即将战败时，穷人争相当神风敢死队，富人已经开始买海运和纺织业股票。\n这个世界就是这么残酷，制造谎言的人剥削韭菜，而韭菜却愈加相信谎言。\n\n对于普通人来说，只能更加强力的自省和学习，独立思考其实是一种非常稀缺的能力。\n\n在精英的语重心长话语体系中，充满了偏见与蔑视，也想让底层只学干活的知识，他们自己的孩子学思考的知识。独立思考的能力是建立在相对丰富的知识体系之上的，争取到抬头看路的权利，让孩子学学艺术，读读文学历史，学会体会生活的美好，避开贫穷的本质（失去思考的权利）。\n\n阶层不同无法真正沟通\n上中下无共同话题\n上中下三个群体两两之间不可能有共同的话题。底层人想的是感情和道德，中层人脑中的是逻辑和利益，上层人关注的是理想和未来。\n最蠢的无外乎是和底层人讲逻辑，和中层人谈理想，和上层人谈感情。\n\n底层人没有辨别是非的能力，他们做判断，依赖道德和感情；中层人除了内卷，什么都不考虑，升职加薪买车买房之间没有理想插足的空间，上层人实在不缺感情，大把人排着队要当他们的小弟和女友。你一无所有，只知道对上层人掏心掏肺，有如往大海里泼水，最多得到一朵水花作为表面回应。\n\n最好的策略是当底层人的哥们，帮中层人搞钱，忽悠上层人给他们画大饼，鼓吹一些不可捉摸的新概念，让他们相信你能帮他们做成改变世界的伟大事业，比如物联网，区块链，元宇宙。\n上层的特殊性\n上层人利用财富可以彻底让自己的生活与底层人隔绝，身边除了值得交流的上层同仁，就是和颜悦色通情达理的人形家具，避免种种毫无价值的情绪消耗。\n\n他们俩阶层不爱交流，就更简单了。底层人对上层人能够付出的，唯有真心和陪伴，也自然要求对方回馈真心和陪伴，然而上层人实在是不缺小弟和女友.\n\n他们什么都不缺，能打动上层人的是宏大叙事，是历史与时代的齿轮咬合声，是伟大文明相互碰撞的火星，是以一己之力推动人类进步这一愿景带来的激动战栗。他们最宝贵的就是时间和精力，因为都是要投入到伟大和丰富的刺激中去的，单位时间的爽度比底层高太多了，比忙碌焦虑的中层高更是不知道哪里去了。\n交流的本质\n交流本身是一种拼拼图式的过程，双方亮出自己脑袋里的知识拼图，互通有无。从对方那里找到自己欠缺的部分，尽可能去完成自己的拼图。完成这个拼图，需要匹配两个元素，一是知识点（拼图片），二是逻辑。逻辑就像拼图上的图案，告诉你这拼图拼好后大概是个什么样子，提示你该怎么拼。\n中层底层很难交流\n中层却日常中避免不了和底层接触，与底层交流，印象最深刻的往往是底层的拼图有多奇葩。太多被中层群体视为常识的东西，得从头教起，且困难重重。\n底层脑袋里拼图片本身很欠缺，对完成后的全图更是一无所知，只有一些稀疏而破碎的知识点，杂乱地漂浮在脑海里。时而两片毫无关联的拼图碰在一起，凹凸之处偶然咬合，就兴奋地称自己有了一个伟大新灵感（想想那些拍脑袋做出奇葩决定的土老板或善于在酒桌上抛出暴论的大爷）。脑袋里为数不多的拼图已经按照上面说的无视拼图表面图案胡乱咬合的形式紧紧结合成了一条没头没尾支棱扎刺的长龙。你想往他脑子里输入知识，输入逻辑，帮他帮他把整个拼图打碎重新拼好，遭到的阻力不亚于直接否认其人格，所以还是随他去吧。\n\n不要改变下层人的观念如同不要动上层人的利益，动下层人的观念如动他的祖坟。可悲的是，下层人观念恰好是上层人利益的来源\n\n但中层转身一说，底层脑袋里积累的拼图碎片很多还是有收集价值的，用你的逻辑去做引导性倾听，循循善诱的帮他把一整套牛吹明白，底层人吹牛的欲望得到满足会更喜欢你。你作为听众多少也能收获到几枚知识拼图，算是最不坏的结果。当然多数时间收获的零星时间，都覆盖不了努力捧哏的时间精力成本。所以，除非真正有拉拢该底层人的必要（比如是家中长辈亲戚），否则中层还是倾向于和底层不做深入交流。\n网络战杠精\n中层眼里，底层都是有意或无意的杠精，有自知之明愿意接受帮助获得提升的还好，战斗意愿巨强烈，还专门找上门来跟你辩论的，除了躲远点，真的没有别的办法。很多底层人来到你评论区，利用其自身的逻辑漏洞，揪住一个点上来就杠，你跟他讲逻辑根本听不进去，因为他那两片图案不合的拼图就是严丝合缝地焊上了，谁说什么都不好使。\n你跟他讲拼图的全图，他听不懂也不屑听，而且这种人一来就是好多，人多势众气势汹汹，逻辑错误如机关枪般向你扫射，根本接不过来。他们只要把自己脑袋里的错误观念抛出来就可以了，你却要真正动脑筋去拆解梳理重构，用简明易懂的文字去给这个素不相识的却跟你有仇的陌生人做启蒙，双方付出的成本差太多，实在是费力不讨好。\n向下兼容的原则\n第一原则：板起面孔。讲理的人最容易犯的错误，就是以为别人和他一样讲理。用逻辑说话用道理说话，温良恭俭让就能说服别人？结果是层次低的人只觉得你好欺负好对付。同样是拿钱办事他偏偏对你偷工减料，买卖东西也是一样。\n层次低不代表心眼坏，只是他判断一件事是对是错，不是从逻辑上来分析的，而是从气势上来分析的。你凶一点他觉得你是对的，不然你不会那么凶。你少说话他觉得你的理很清楚，你说的多他觉得你是在放烟雾弹，其实没什么理。\n你要判断一个人层次高低，你就要先让一步，好好讲看他听不听，如果他不听或者开始亏待你或占你便宜，你就知道他的层次了，你就不要试着再去说服他，而是要立即严肃起来挑剔起来。要善良，也要有锋芒（起码一定要有原则底线）\n结语\n四顾望去都是同类人，其乐融融，无论你身处哪个阶层，都是最幸福的事。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["圈层"]},{"title":"面试三例观察感想","url":"/%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E4%B8%89%E4%BE%8B%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E6%84%9F%E6%83%B3.html","content":"近日参与二面三则，相逢多数转身不见感触记录\n\n85年-北方民族大学\n毕业于北方民族大学，坐落宁夏银川，未婚，毕业一直在北京，辗转于多家企业，有法国做中东航空客户的外企，有国内项目制的软件开发企业（碰不到合适的项目就把人裁掉）。最近一家是瑞幸咖啡，是自己待的最满意的一家，最想长久干的一家，可惜因为税务丑闻，也做了人员缩减。从04月份疫情后，一直赋闲，想着等疫情消停后再找工作。\n\n这让我挺吃惊的，猜测一人吃饱全家不饿，肯定有些积蓄，但淡定这就久也没有什么不同于工作的强烈的个人安排，也没有技术突破，实属浪费了时间。问及一些生活问题，家人在东北农村也理解不了他的生活，帮不了什么，可能在北京就是一份荣耀吧。问问他对银川的印象，还不错，想不想去那里发展？不置可否。\n94年-奥克兰大学\n毕业于北京交通大学，后去奥克兰大学读硕士。去了华三不喜欢，又去了一家也不喜欢，想进大公司，稳健谋长篇发展。基础体现出来不是非常扎实，散发出北京一般家庭的气质，上进心和钻研精神体现的不是很突出（写到这里我想起来毕业那年因自己的好奇心和特质，吸引了鹅厂的初面官，成为专业里寥寥几个入围者，虽然未能走到最后）。\n因为技术视野和发展规划未能匹配其教育背景，理解核心问题的速率也不够突出，本来不想给他过，但转念想想自己的要求可能有些严苛了，毕竟18年才硕士毕业，遂留言给后续HR面关注其面对挑战和冲突的应对能力和吃苦耐劳的意识。\nHR后续追加评价个性偏自我，略浮躁，条理性一般，抗压性一般，需关注稳定性，给过了。\n95年-太原理工大学\n戴着办包边黑框眼镜的妹子，嘴稍微有些鼓。我们这样的IT岗位，比较少面试女生。本来没报多高希望，但其谈吐顺畅，工作三年，饱含工作热情。在女生里算是很不错的工作者了，不足之处是解决技术难题的经验定然是欠缺的。虽学的是计算机，因学校布课原因，算是半个数学专业，顺带问了她对于数学学习的感受和体悟，仍然散发出来的是一个正能量坦荡的性格。这种性格好奇最终被龙凤胎打破，怪不得，独生子女里难得有这样的个性。\n原来的单位频繁出差做项目，也是项目制，原来还觉得挺好，可以到处去，但3年了，作为一个妹子也想缓缓下来安顿安顿，北京离山西不远，算是优选，个性好的人一般也认为其家乡城市也是好地方，岗位其实更需要这样一个工作者迎接各种未知的挑战，但其来晚了，不一定有入职机会。好在其还有京东的口头offer，祝好吧\n结语\n人生啊，百态，在点线（单领域线协作管理）面（多项目多团队协作管理）体（公司/部门）的发展路线上，希望都能挥洒出自己满意的轨迹。\n\n愿成长\n落落大方\n笑得坦荡\n不负众望\n\n","categories":["生活随笔"],"tags":["访谈"]},{"title":"面试法框架","url":"/%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E6%B3%95%E6%A1%86%E6%9E%B6.html","content":"\n前言\n\n也大大小小面试过很多场了, 回望觉到应更有章法的记录一些内容，大部分内容来自于培训记录\n\n成功的招聘从两个视角来观察，取两者的交集才是两情相悦\n\n企业要的，企业有的\n个人有的，个人要的\n\n企业用人其实是三重匹配：职位匹配，团队匹配，文化匹配。\n职位匹配：一个人的能力、经验、知识背景跟职位的要求是吻合的，这是能把工作做好的基础所在\n团队匹配：能快速融合被接纳并发挥作用，越是团队领导，对团队匹配的要求就越高。\n\n举例子候选人可能非常资深，但他已经习惯了一个成熟的职业化团队，而不是一个经验不足，快速成长的团队去教。想干掉随企业成长的老员工也不那么容易，彼此都不舒服，也很难有好结果。这也是很多职业经理人空降时，经常把团队换成自己的下级，这样虽有不合适之嫌，但团队匹配顺理成章地完成了\n\n文化匹配：企业文化和个人价值观的匹配。更多出现在决策层的职业经理人，合伙人之间。就不展开来说明了。\n工作早期更多是讲职位匹配，随着成长，团队/文化匹配就越来越近。很多人会觉得在某个公司工作痛苦，并不是他驾驭不了这个工作本身，而是个体价值观和组织的价值有冲突，这种情况下一般的建议是，有能力的话换一个更好的工作，因为这种情况下是没有前途的。\n定能力要求\n应该用流程性思维对用人要求进行梳理\n\n\n流程性思考，梳理职责\n用流程性思考，把职责转变为动作的流程\n动作理出来了，能力自然而然就产生了\n\n与流程性思维产生对照的是经验性思维，换种说法是头脑风暴法。头脑风暴法的问题是，它不是一种系统性思考问题的方法，在思考过程中中容易出现遗漏。\n面试阶段\n1vs1的面试考察大概分两类，（行为）追问大法与（场景）挖坑大法，你会只用一种么？我想不会，明明是混合大法。\n群面就来不及开展细致追问，明显是场景考察法\n开场白\n开场白-双方自我介绍，3-5分钟，作为面试者你可以准备一个3分钟的自我介绍\n行为面试法\n开启提问\n候选人分享成功案例\n追问\n核心是 不断追问细节，以判断候选人的行为方式，思维方式和能力素质，算是了解候选人能力和过去经历最有效的方法。\n了解背景\n\n团队当时有多少人，平均年限多久，团队过往业绩水平如何，汇报给谁\n公司的行业地位是怎样的\n\n任务的难度系数\n\n上级布置了什么目标，你怎么分解这个目标的\n要完成这个目标，难点在哪里\n阻碍你出业绩的难点是什么，获得了哪些上级的支持\n\n行动细节\n\n当时怎么考虑的\n如何做，寻求了谁的帮助，计划和执行出了偏差如何调整的\n如何与兄弟部门配合的\n出现分歧了么，如何说服他人的\n\n业绩评价\n\n最终取得了什么成绩\n上级如何评价你的\n个人认为自己好的地方，不足之处有哪些\n重来一次的话，怎么可以做的更好\n\n场景模拟法\n\n\n设定一定的假设情景，要求候选人对一系列相关问题（问题来自于工作或工作所需的某种素质体现）进行回答\n\n自己设计的情景，通常涉及对应聘者多种能力的考察，要想效果好，你必须对情景设计好，且清楚重点考察的方面\n\n\n\n也是结构化面试的一种特殊形式，通常对问题有预先的答案\n\n\n技巧是增加冲突来考察\n\n\n收尾10分钟\n\n还有什么问题想问（关于公司，面试官本人）\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["经管"]},{"title":"颈部观感差异解读","url":"/%E9%A2%88%E9%83%A8%E8%A7%82%E6%84%9F%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html","content":"\n抛开长相和说话的语言谈吐不说，只是站在那里，就让人觉得有气质和贵气，有个部位必须好看，那就是脖子。\n脖子也是观察年龄的一个有效点：女性从23-25开始出现细微颈纹，现在针对脖子的化妆保养品还不够多或有效。\n好看的脖子有何特点\n脸型可方可圆，可稍大或娇小，但脖子一定是细长的。尤其是对传统服装的驾驭，只有脖子够细长的人，才能真正穿出贵气感。脖子修长的男生不仅会有挺拔感，还会显高，也更能驾驭霸道总裁，都市精英或富二代角色。\n符合比例\n\n\n要让脖子尽量细长，但也要符合身材比例，9.4cm被认为是长度的平均值。测量从下巴到锁骨的距离，超过9.4cm就算长的了。当然这跟身材比例也有关系，头很小的人，脖子也可以相应短一点，相反则可更长。但最好不要超过1/2（下图的宋慧乔AD长度也没到脸部的二分之一，但她占了下颌角距离CD的便宜），平衡感最重要。\n\n下巴到锁骨（下图AD）的距离，接近脸长的1/2，就是标准脖长，\n\n除了长度，宽度也会影响美感。一般来说，女生脖子占头宽一半，男生占3/5。简单点来说，不超过两眼尾\n\n故用眼妆来扩大眼睛的长度，把原本的眼睛拉长，也是一招\n\n\n\n下颌角边露出脖子处（即C点）作为脖长的终点，看C点到锁骨的长度（即CD）, 这也是为什么宽脸显脖子短的原因\n\n长脖治理策略\n治本策略\n瘦脸\n首要任务仍是瘦脸，紧致面部轮廓。V型窄脸因为和脖子衔接流畅，C点更高，更易显得脖子长，厚实的肌肉或脂肪造成的宽大下颌角自然吃亏。瘦脸的方法无非减肥和医美手段，大家都懂。\n体态训练\n耸肩，驼背，脖子前探，会视觉上直观缩短本身就不长的脖子。不要脖子前倾（封面图）\n拍照或训练体态，有个小口诀，挺沉靠：挺腰挺胸，沉肩，头略往后靠。忽略任一个都达不到最佳\n\n拍照时歪头或侧脸，拉伸并露出一侧肩颈线也有利于表现\n\n治标策略\n衣着\n\n看清锁骨时\n\n在视觉上，下颌角举例肩部（CD）的距更容易被定义为脖子长度，故下颌角不够高或有肉堆积，看起来自然显短\n\n看不清锁骨时\n\n\n当看不清锁骨时，如你穿了较高的领子，但露出了耳垂，那么耳垂E，到脖肩转折点G的高度，也常备来看作脖子长度（EG），这时你斜方肌发达会吃亏。\n当衣领开口位置，接近锁骨或肩膀的水平位置，会用衣领的位置F为脖子起点，即脖长EF\n当你既遮住了耳朵和下颌角，又遮住了锁骨，人们就容易用下巴到领口的高度作为脖子长度，这是最短的一个长度（AF），悲催！\n衣着总结\n\n深V领短脖子友好\nU型领也值得拥有，线条柔和且也能遮斜方肌\n\n吊带露前胸肉多，也可以分散注意力，大面积肉色混淆脖子轮廓，也吸睛，还吸鼻血\n翻领比立领高领好，选圆领也要向下挖\n发型\n头发是掩人耳目的利器，不光能遮脸，还能遮脖子，需要讲究技巧。中长发两束散在脖子两侧，模糊了脖子真实长度和粗度，但注意不要把两只耳朵都遮住\n不建议刚到斜方肌或脖子中间的短发（起不到混淆效果），在锁骨附近过于臃肿会失分，太卷曲无法模仿脖子弧度的的发行也会失分。\n总结\n所以影响脖子视觉长度有几个关键位置，耳垂E，下颌角露脖点C，下巴A，脖根转折点G，锁骨D。其中最高的位置是耳垂E，最低的位置是锁骨D**，最长的脖长是ED**，通过选择性的遮盖和突出，就能影响视觉长度。聪明的你是否已经有了启发？\n视觉上尽量利用耳垂到锁骨的高度ED来做脖子的长度，这就是芭蕾丸子头的好处\n","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"颜值vs身材","url":"/%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BCvs%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90.html","content":"\n娱乐圈常有大美人、小美人之分，似乎有一个隐含要求是，大美人不仅要脸好看，身材也要足以「够震慑」，热巴的身材为她的整体形象加分良多。小美人即使脸很过关，也常因为身板和头身比被认为够不上大美人。文章更多从女性主角角度来剖析，女拳大师自行跳开就是，为悦己者容、饮食男女才是常情。\n脸和身材哪个更重要？\n对女性整体魅力来说，脸和身材哪个更重要？\n结论先行颜值派\n\n颜值天注定，身材靠努力\n\n\n来自女性的声音：要脸，身材我自己做主，别告诉我身材不好指的是身高150cm。魔鬼的身材常有，而天使的脸庞不常有。刘亦菲的脸蛋和柳岩的身材，你选哪一个？二者不能齐于一身都会有遗憾，但刘亦菲即使她年龄渐长，身材有点发福走样，神仙颜值就是神仙颜值，只有一个刘亦菲。\n\n小姐姐喜欢的不是肌肉男，她们只是喜欢好看的肌肉男，健身房吸引她们的不是肌肉，还是那些长得好看的小哥哥，身材只能算做一个加分项而已。\n\n明显是脸蛋重要，身材对男人标准有很多种（有维密天使般的性感、也有平胸长腿的骨感等等好身材），有些男的喜欢胖的，有些喜欢瘦的或者匀称的，但是脸蛋对男人标准只有一个，这是绝大部分男人内心的想法，只不过碍于现实社会和自己个人情况没办法而已。\n身材 (除了身高) 可以通过天然的方式(锻炼)做出本质改变，但是脸蛋是爹妈给的，亮肤祛痘还行，但天生脸蛋长得歪瓜裂枣的再怎么也没法改，除非整容。脸蛋好看给人的感觉是直观刺激，身材是偏气质这一块的，身材好的人骨子里透着自信。脸蛋与身材，就是一个“天赋”和“努力”的关系。\n有采访者说：身材只要不要太胖，长得好看的话，魅力绝不会拉胯。人长得很好看，谁有功夫看她有没有肉啊。\n对立派\n\n这显然是上了年纪的一群\n\n身材永远比颜值重要，身材是一种状态美，而脸是一种结构美和皮相美，脸即使再好看，随着年龄的增长，衰老是必然的，面部结构一定会产生衰老痕迹，不再是18岁时的娇嫩。一个不注重保持身材的女人，颜值再高也就十年保质期。\n实验研究\n\n科学家通过将脸和身材拆出来单看综合魅力评分研究过的结论：女性的整体魅力中，脸的影响占比47%，身材32%—— 脸的重要性比较明显地高于身材。一个脸好看身材不好的人，我们更可能称之为「身材不太行的美女」，但身材好但脸不好看的人，我们很多时候只会称为「身材好看的人」。身材其实加分很少的，可以参考瘦下来的高晓松。\n为何脸部对整体魅力至关重要，因为其传递出来的功能、信息更为丰富。面部有丰富的表情，可以是自信的、挑逗的、楚楚可怜的表情，让我们了解「这是一个怎样的人」而不止步于「这是一张怎样的脸」，从而更入迷，更深入喜爱。当然面部细节同样也反映健康特征，对称性高的脸，往往对应更健康的基因；女性化程度高的脸，往往对应更旺盛的生殖功能……相对于面部，身材传递的信息，更「价值观导向」些：我们是否健康生活，是否好好锻炼，是否积极自信？奥运冠军并不是硬照审美杀手，但大家都觉得身材好看，因为很健康又有活力。\n身材牌不好打\n身材和脸虽然拆出来单看，脸也只有47%的整体影响，整体看实际看，其实脸对颜值的影响还要更大（大家衣着都保守的情况下）。\n身材之所以常被感觉「没那么重要」，一个是因为很多拥有好身材的人「不会打」，另一个，也是因为身材好这张牌，本身就不那么好打。身材好虽然很加分，但展现起来确实掣肘比较多。科学实验表明，在大家更多裸露的状态下，身材对魅力的评分影响会增加。泳装状态下，身体吸引力重要性明显提升，但在生活中，我们穿着不仅要考虑凸显有点，还要考虑得体。\n\n身材好的人如果随便穿，也不太看得出身材加分。\n\n纯欲大热\n即使是身材很占优势的人，往往也很难大大方方地凸显身材，很容易被认为不得体。也难怪，这几年各种各样的「纯欲」风大热，尤其是在东亚较保守的环境下，确实是当下较优解。\n大脑的工作机制\n脸和身材的影响度加起来也不到100%（47%+32%=79%），似乎还有其他影响因素。出现这种情况，跟大脑对信息的处理机制有关。\n先整体后局部\n大脑会先关注整体，然后关注重点，最后才会关注到更细微的细节，比如说头部以上，观察重点在面部，头发的权重肯定要让路。\n短时上下文影响判断\n红花还得绿叶衬，见唐伯虎，对面孔吸引力的判断评分受感知历史信息的影响，在短短几秒钟内产生可测量的影响。\n身脸灵魂依次展开\n男人都是视觉动物，坚挺的胸部和臀部往往是男性心目中完美女神的标配（整体）。这就是男人的天性，那么男人目光也是第一时间的被吸引过去。火辣身材虽然能快速吸引男人的视线，但并不能持续性地引发好感。观赏过后，他们更关心女人的长相和其他优点（细节）。鉴定完毕之后，一旦发现女人除了身材好之外，没有别的特点时，就会转移视线了（短择目的除外）。\n魅力合力评分\n从大脑机理机制上说，有些美人细看缺点是明显，但不影响她们整体风情万种，风格亮眼让人久久难忘。如王祖贤的H身材（长腿但腰不算细胸不大）和她的英气长相构成合力，就形成特色；有些美人则不能说有明显槽点，但整体模糊缺乏重点，合起来却让人记不住也想不起来。\n我们的总体魅力效果，也并不只是各个部分的简单相加，重要的是整体和重点。无论是身材还是脸蛋，虽然你我可能确实有很多「细看不完美」的细节，但更重要的是整体和重点。且当身材和脸形成某种「合力」时，才能彼此加强。比如热巴，她的面孔和身材都是「极尽张扬的浓艳大美女」走向，两者构成合力时，整体效果最佳。杜鹃身材和脸都传递出一种冷淡感，形成了某种合力。反之，浓艳脸麻杆身材肯定会失败。\n身材的胜利时刻\n全面竞争\n现实中，我们往往会更强烈地执着于「看脸」。身材什么时候会更重要呢？\n\n情况一，周围的人脸长得都不错，此时主要靠身材刷出差别，因此身材会变得更重要。明星走红毯时，因为长相普遍在线（不能说都一个水平，但水平普遍偏高），所以身材更容易刷出差异。\n情况二、脸部差异越来越容易被医美拉近，身材、体态差异其实更能让我们「脱颖而出」。\n\n短择垂涎\n科学研究，男性对女性的外表关注点，受长短择偏好影响。长短择中，男性都很注重脸，但在短择关系中，男性对身材的关注度会明显提升，甚至超过看脸。生理上抱着短择心态的男性，更容易被好身材吸引，那么反过来说，（展现）身材好也更容易吸引到短择的男性。\n如果你身材性感，那么一定要“保护”好你的性感，把你的火辣好身材适当地隐藏起来。因为你的性感发挥到长择的对象上，是最聪明的结果。脸是给大家的，身材才是私有得到的。\n年龄分水岭\n基于一众采访，得出对于脸和身材的偏重，是受年龄影响的，可能30岁是一个分水岭。30岁之前更看重脸，毕竟脸是一个人的门面。\n\n有一个20岁的学生，被长的不好看的女生倒追，但身边朋友的女朋友颜值都不错，他觉得拿不出手，走路上不想牵手，不想KISS，亲热过一次还是在关了灯的前提下进行的，看不见脸就没那么难受 😥\n\n但过了30岁之后就觉得，脸面干净就行，更在乎的就是身材了。这时候太瘦的一般不太受欢迎了，有线条成了大家的共识，虽然匀称紧致也有美感。也有28岁的金融分析师声称，曾经被自己高挑白净，黑长直，眼睛大大，笑起来有酒窝的170女朋友迷了很长一段时间，但后来相处久了腻了也就没有那种感觉了。\n说个大实话，外貌在结婚后真的不重要，看多了就没多大感觉，只要不是太丑就好。但有趣的灵魂和性格好能让人相处更舒服，身材能让你们婚后一直保持较高的欲望。婚姻对普通人来说不是激情和浪漫，上限落在细水长流的小浪漫，下限落在柴米油盐酱醋茶，没有好性格很难细水长流。性格大于双方家庭，大于身材，大于外貌，是这么个排序顺序。年轻时会看脸也看身材，走过半生，发现，会不会疼你，愿不愿意给你花钱，最重要。\n婚姻的“临界感”\n婚后生活，管理好你们的“临界感”。\n\n\n保持距离感，有自己的独立空间，也让男人偶尔有失去的焦虑感；\n\n\n保持想象感，过于熟悉就容易腻，学会留一手，要让男人对你有想象的空间；\n\n\n保持限制感，尤其是同居之后，要控制性的频率，不要让“吃太饱”。\n\n\n让对方保持一定的“饥渴感”，才会越来越爱。\n普通人塑造健康性\n和普通人同时出现的，绝大多数时候也是普通人。我们不需要因为头身比、身材不如明星，就觉得自己「努力也没用」。比起死磕身边人共有的优势（比如皮肤白、瘦），不如多想想，大家普遍短板是什么，往大家的短板方面用力最容易「脱颖而出」。\n目前，脸部差异越来越容易被医美拉近，身材体态差异其实更能让大家显出不同。另外脸固然可以从硬件是否好看精致完美角度去看（但局部的过分突出只会让整体看起来失衡），也可以从对称性，健康性，元气感等角度去看。觉得自己不好看就研究化妆衣服搭配提升气质，日系韩系欧美系那么多路子，可盐可甜bf风等等等等。\n\n真正高级的照片从不 P 图，过度磨皮会滤掉很多生机。成就高级质感的是肌理，情绪，氛围这些高维度的视觉冲击，并不是无暇。另在充满自信的本我基础上大胆表现迸发出来的浑厚真挚的性格色彩，是一种感染力和张力。真正的美是一种充满故事性的可带动他人的情绪魔力\n\n身体大体能看出一个人的自律程度，因为只要你愿意你想的话，它就可以慢慢变好。自己觉得自己身材不好就减肥塑型；从意义上看，身材几乎藏着一个人的生活，审美观和生活态度。能接纳和欣赏自己，能尊重和挖掘自己的独特美的人，其实会很有吸引力，如辣目洋子。\n我们有怎样的魅力，核心不是我们有什么长相、身材牌，更在于我们怎么打。\n结语\n身材和脸蛋都是皮囊，好看的皮囊千篇一律，有趣的灵魂万里挑一。现实中的确高颜值更稀缺。\n真正的美不是复刻，是整体的协调和细节的质感，不是某个固定的部位，是鲜活的生动的感觉，也可以是形体结构之美，亦可是深刻的精神内涵。容貌无法选择，但可以选择做自己！\n经常有人在网络上讲：岁月从不败美人。可是时光老人会打败任何人，不败的是光影留下的形象快照，这个形象可以定格永远年轻，且人们喜欢的是演员塑造的人物而不是演员本身，你看见的也是荧幕形象不是私底形象。所谓英雄末路，美人迟暮一定会发生，只有你内心的从容淡然，高傲与自信，是可以对抗岁月的。从容处世淡如云，心志如松志不分，若再常怀坦荡真情，就更好了。\n性吸引力研究排序\n简而言之，女性喜欢阿尔法男，男性喜欢生育能力强的女性，这是底层逻辑\n女选男因素排序\n身高、颜值、社会经济地位（扭曲力场因素）、声音\n男选女因素排序\n脸、腰臀比（年轻的指征）、腿、胸\n性吸引力抽样预测\n$受欢迎概率=\\frac{A+1}{N+2}$\nA：被喜欢的次数\nN：接触的次数\n参考\n1.新浪新闻 好脸蛋vs好身材：科学看，哪个更能帮你进阶美人？ ↩","categories":["过分好奇"],"tags":["生物"]},{"title":"风浪越大鱼越贵","url":"/%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%AA%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%A7%E9%B1%BC%E8%B6%8A%E8%B4%B5.html","content":"\n有人生在罗马，有人一生牛马。人生升舱虽不是一代都能完成，但努力攀爬好过躺平打转。与天斗，与地斗，与人斗，其乐无穷。与己斗，最大的坑是你根本不知道自己在坑里。\n财富是勇敢者的游戏\n弱者总以为别人在欺负他，总以为他错过了最好的时代，总以为富人年轻的时候遍地是黄金。乱世的时候他说饭都吃不饱，怎么能变富呢？盛世的时候他说钱都被抢光了，怎么能变富呢？\n第一批富人乌鸡变凤凰从哪来的，原来可都是抹鼻涕吃土豆。总有一些穷人更爱思考，更能冒险，在找一条别人没走过的路，可能家破人亡粉身碎骨的路，而后他咬咬牙，真的上路了。命运齿轮转动胜出的是动脑筋，在这个国度，能吃苦的人真的不缺。\n\n之前下海的人，都是边缘化的人，待业在家活不下去的人。没到这个地步的人，全在好单位全在挤破脑袋分房子、搞编制、抢铁饭碗，但凡有点身份，都不至于去路边卖茶叶蛋。那个年代做生意不容易贷到款，可能都是要卖房子筹钱。创业永远都是勇敢者的游戏，装备从来不是免费的，不敢拼命换，就不要抱怨不公平。\n\n穷人赚钱难，常因从头到尾都在追求一个确定的东西：到底做什么能赚钱？就像在追求一个按钮，按一下马上能变富。如果你总问别人今年干啥能赚钱，抱歉你干什么都赚不到钱，世界上能赚到钱的事，抛开坑蒙拐骗抢，都是供需和稀缺决定的，稀缺伴随着投入结果的不确定性。能赚到大钱的事，一定是极度不确定的。只有不确定性才能帮你把对手拦在门外，只有不确定能不能赚钱才能帮你淘汰掉最多的同行，使你独享那一份红利。\n发财得争\n\n人太厚道也会阻碍发财，很多人的传统观念，当一个穷的叮当响的好人，不掉价值，但做一个自私的坏人，会让自己颜面扫地，甚至丢祖先的脸面。一部分底层人擅长受苦，但不擅长争。做好人为什么难发财，因为发财就得争，好人不善争。\n老一辈里人中拿贫寒换口碑大有人在，做好人是要付出成本的，这个成本就是吃亏，争就必然树敌，就有人说你不是个好人。纵观混的好的10个人中，有一个是凭背景的，一个靠祖坟选的好的，有几个是选对行业深耕的，剩下的五六个都是凭狠凭争凭不择手段上去的。上去的这帮人论天资不过平平，但意识形态里，把君子固穷这条早就删除了。他别墅游艇离你远，你骂他他根本听不见。\n很多人不是不努力，只不过要么受限于能力运气祖坟，要么受限于良心，所以得不到实质的改变。\n无用知识提携命运\n很多人热衷于考证提升自己，比如学会计，学英语，每个人都知道它好，有用，这自然会引来很多对手逐步将利润拉平。考证是确定的，报班也是确定的。钢琴，数学，舞蹈提升都量化看得见。但你说三观提升怎么看？没法看，文史哲有什么用，怎么变现？\n真正能改变命运的恰恰是那些看起来没什么用的知识，学了之后不清楚短时间有什么回报的知识，只有这种长远的不急功近利的不只图眼前的不确定好不好的知识，才能让你甩开大多数对手，才能让你摸清楚规则后再同场竞技，才能让你在框架的层级上几十倍几百倍的超过对手。\n例如经济学就是底层框架，人和国家拆开看，都是代价换收益，如何用最小的代价达到最大的收益，才是大智慧。很多人的努力是走一步看一步的努力，什么有用学什么的努力，他们无比精明，自认为从来不在没用的地方花精力，但恰恰是这种精明误导了自己。死死的盯着脚下，生怕走错一步，却在大是大非的人生路口无脑前行，苦行半生两手空空，人生最重要的是判断方向，判断对错，并且敢用全身的力量去押注大势。你说你很厉害，那你敢不敢押呀。为什么不敢，还是没学透不懂。\n草根反人性之路\n肉体的勤奋生活的艰辛，更多是逃避选择的借口，我这么勤奋还赚不到钱，一定是这个社会错了。为什么赚钱这么难，因为很多人根本不懂，要在最关键的地方努力摆脱贫困，就要逆天改命。为什么摆脱贫困这么难，因为贫穷是一个陷进，符合基因限定的陷阱，让你不知不觉的陷进去，它太让人舒服了，太符合人性了，很多人根本意识不到自己在坑里。穷了就想省钱，而越省越找不到突破口，穷了你就想稳定，越稳定就越是抓不住新机会，于是陷入恶性循环。一定要摆脱一定要走出去，怎么办？三个字：反人性。\n反者道之动\n不是思维模式决定命运，思维模式正是命运。当下的思维也正是当下的命运，如果你想逆天改命，就一定要逆自己，颠倒你一如既往的思维，相反才是道的动力，主动的反才是你逆风翻盘的关键。你不愿意看书，变成你可以看书，你不愿意社交，变成你可以社交，那些你羡慕的做不到的都可以从现在开始变成做得到。大脑空空，行动如风，无因无果，无事无我。\n首先扔掉玻璃心，世界上最大的幻觉，就是你觉得你在独立思考，实际上只是有人在陪你玩游戏。\n性价比的魔幻\n\n为什么有人喜欢性价比高的东西啊，因为他们觉得自己懂，不在没必要的地方花钱。不对你再想一想，是谁提出这个词？是商家呀。正因为你没钱，商家为了卖东西给你，想法设法照顾你的自尊心，才造出了性价比这个词，他反复给你强调，你不买贵是因为你比别人更懂（哪里需要揉哪里，这才是顶级的营销技巧）。\n\n仔细想一想，你为什么有时间研究性价比，因为你的时间不值钱呀，否则你就不会把时间和精力花在研究产品上，商家跟你说你才是最懂行的，他们都人傻钱多，不对，一个人要是真傻，他就不会钱多。他更有钱，抛开运气和传承，就是因为他比你聪明，比你坚韧比你能吃苦，比你有远见。你觉得他傻，只是因为你看不懂而已。你视野不够开阔，你时间成本不够大。你需要一个理由将一切合理化。商家就帮你找了一个。你需要一个以自我为中心的幻觉，商家就帮你营造一个。有什么样的受众，就会有什么样的产品。\n美国大片也多是草根拯救世界，半生平淡碌碌无为，突然被蜘蛛咬了一口，马上有了超能力，行侠仗义，万人敬仰。因为每个草根都觉得他和超人之间就差了一个机会，每个情节，每个对话，每一帧画面都是精心设计的，让人陷入幻觉而不自知。你不是草根，你只是在通往伟大的路上。\n玻璃心是很脆弱的，看破不说破。越是草根，就越脆弱，就越在乎别人的看法，就越相信自我幻觉，就越难以逃开这个坑，无法超我审观察自己，敢于扔掉玻璃心，是能赚到钱的第一步。\n不要为面子付费\n把面子扔在一边，越穷就越好面子，越怕别人看不起，越会买贵的东西充门面就越会导致没有钱。面子不是别人给的，是自己给的。所谓他看不起你，实际是你自己看不起自己。不要管面子，不要为面子付费，看不起就看不起，只有你知道自己的目标是什么，你可以付出多大的代价，真正让一个人刮目相看的是这些。\n舍得为知识付费\n本金太少，你买任何理财产品都没有用。最好的投资对象是自己，最好的回报是知识，把吃喝玩乐的钱省下来去买书去学习，去找好的老师，一定要舍得在学习方面花钱，买个奢侈品刷卡是浪费，买个学习产品刷卡是借力，最好的知识一定是很贵很贵的。贵有贵的道理，贵才能节约机会成本，才能让你少走弯路。钱可以再生，而时间不行。\n提早踩坑\n该踩坑就踩坑，不要怕走冤枉路，不要怕被割韭菜，人生该踩的坑一个也少不了，穷的时候不踩富的时候一定会踩，而且还会更大。小孩摔一个跟头马上爬起来，老年人摔一个跟头可能就骨裂了，吃亏一定要趁早，越早试错成本就越小。看清世界的代价就越小，你都那么穷了，别人还能坑你点什么呢。小的地方尽量多吃亏尽量多踩坑，才能快速摸清规则积累经验，才能在人生最重要的节点突飞猛进，一骑绝尘。总有一天你会发现，当年那些过不去的坎，今天连个小水坑都算不上。\n寻找不确定性\n寻找不确定性，越穷就越安于现状，前面说过了这个世界上真正能给你带来超额回报的，一定是不确定性。但这有个前提，就是你需要有足够的判断力，而判断力就需要踩坑需要拼命的积累，需要找最好的老师，别人不能忍的你能忍，别人舍不得的你舍得，别人不敢下注的你敢下注，这样你才有突围的机会，越穷就越不要追求稳定，而是追求未来。越穷就也不要用时间换报酬，而是要用结果换报酬。\n切换生态系统\n人是环境的奴隶。很多东西你觉得那是你的喜好是你的判断，不对，那只是你从小到大的环境强加给你的，只是你没有意识到，你的一举一动，为人处事喜怒哀乐都会被环境不断的影响，以至于让你觉得这就是你。\n\n你觉得自己是个旱鸭子，只是因为你生在内地；你觉得豆腐脑不能加韭菜花，只是因为你生在南方；你觉得开个大奔回去就是光耀门楣，只是因为你周围的人都这么认为。鱼最难意识到的就是水的存在，所以你一定要有超我的意识，站在上帝的视角重新审视自己，重新审视你本来的样子。\n\n既然环境可以塑造人，为什么不能塑造成我想要塑造的样子呢，为什么不能主动选择一个塑造自己的环境呢？你要做的就是切换生态系统，离开你的初始环境，离得越远越好，去最大的城市，去竞争最激烈的地方，去顶尖人才最多的地方，去你之前想去而从来没去过的地方，去看去模仿去学习。你可能不知道什么是对的，但你一定知道这样大方向肯定是对的；你可能不知道过去哪些是错的，但你一定知道大概率很多地方都错了，在超我意识指导下奋力向前。\n6 in 1\n只要是舒服的享受的习惯的，你就不要做。草根阶段在你舒适区的一定是有问题的，但正是因为它符合你的习惯，你才意识不到他有问题。\n","categories":["社科内省"],"tags":["人性"]},{"title":"高效团队和亚马逊经验","url":"/%E9%AB%98%E6%95%88%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F.html","content":"\n文章不分来源于infoq的摘取 https://www.infoq.cn/article/MYEKmcClGEXvKRQ7LWNY\n\n\n业务模式不是孤立存在的，企业要想基业长青，不仅要有好的业务模式，还要有正确的人，永不熄火的创新引擎，既快又好的决策机制，及强有力的组织文化。\n企业成败关键在人，人是根本，战略都是人想出来的，事情都是人做出来的，始于老板，终于组织文化。\n\n你的人就是你你的企业，用什么样的人，你的企业就会变成什么样子\n积极上进的工程师能产生数倍于“普通工人”的价值，二者的区别就是前者能主动发现问题、而后者只会按指令办事\n\n高效团队\n\n软件开发迭代周期和频率越来越快\n管理问题\n\n团队越来越大，分布在不同区域\n执行力问题，流动问题，成长问题\n\n\n\n不是所有公司都需要高效团队，但当处理的业务复杂度，交互复杂度，或服务用户数越来越多，就需要高效团队了。要又快又好，还要降低成本，如上提及的管理问题也在凸显。\n如何搞成高效团队\n\n搞敏捷\n用权威，干不完不用下班\n使命感价值观，要不停地努力，这是对你好\nKPI，996，钉钉 等等\n\n如上保证不了你的公司你的团队去到更高的位置，解决更复杂更难的问题，有更有价值的产出，终极的问题还是在团队的人上，再看团队中的事，再之团队领导力。\n\n高效团队的人\n找到高效的人，怎么弄，是教育有问题的人，还是培养有潜力的人，还是花时间找优秀的人？\n招聘错误的人破坏性极大，正确的人让团队管理和建设变得简单有效。不是说不能应急随便招人，但明天招来的人，比今天招来的更差，就是一种错误的方向。\n什么样的人才是好的人\n\n能搞定事的人，能独立完成，用最小的成本完成\n讲方法的人。人和人最大的区别，就是方法。方法从总结和学习而来，讲方法的人，平时一定会总结和归纳出很多的套路，不管是编程还是解决问题，眼光必然更为长远\n沟通能力好的人。除了能听指令完成工作，更要是能把模糊和复杂的东西表达清楚，能说服别人的人，就更好了。\n有领导力的人，坚持高标准，喜分享，思考，挑战，有全局感。如果只能要一个的话，那么就是标准高，标准高的人一般都有领导力，有改进的愿望，想把这个事情做好。\n\n技术人员分层\n\n\n技工：能使用的操作技术，并能按时出活\n\n\n工程师：了解原理能解决难题，自动化和规模化，降低工程成本提升效率\n\n\n专家：有探路能力，贡献更好更优的方法，能创新和简化，提高标准，并能抽象标准化\n\n\n领导者：创造价值和利润，吸引人才和资源，组织并带动团队，提升整体效率，感知变化和挑战，抓重点，洞悉本质\n\n\n怎么找到人的优势\n有这么一个顺序：特长，兴趣，方法，经验，勤奋\n首先是找特长，人与人之间的差别是很可怕的事情，这是不容否认的。例如说听音乐，有些人就是会比一般人对这个事情敏感。\n次之就是找到有兴趣的人，就是那种不服输的精神。接着才到方法，多数人如果懂方法的话，有时间观念，会做计划，不磨增，对做过的事总结，喜欢自己找答案，厘清因果关系，追求原理，懂原理的人会一通百通，能突破自己的天花板。\n然后是经验，经验有很多东西，受过良好教育，不错的工作经历。最后才是勤奋。但勤奋解决不了太多的问题，不可能把你所有方面往上提，经验也不太可能，只有前面三种，才有可能是一个人的主导优势。你要找的人，或多或少一定要有1到2个点。\n核心成员\n驱动者\nOwner要有如下素质，能做出贡献（效应），带动团队，创新优化，前瞻能力，抓重点，简化，标准化\n\n简化，标准化问题，才可能规模化，平台化\n\n优化者\n中坚力量，对要做的事有热情，会想各种方法推动事情，有如下特质。\n\n探路能力：只要方向没问题，没有路也能趟出条路来。\n贡献方法\n解决难题\n提高标准\n\n贡献者\n执行力量，对要做的事有丰富的经验，能做出正确的判断和决策。能降低成本提升效率，防火胜于救火。\n除去如上三种人外，剩下的人都是可以替代的，不是核心团队成员，只是你的流水兵员工。\n亚马逊的人才观\n实干家（要builder而非dreamer）\n\n既有创新，又能实干\n有多种能力，才华出众\n永远充满好奇，爱探索\n\n主人翁\n\n着眼长远，极有担当\n在薪酬结构上，侧重股权激励而非现金激励，真正成为公司股东，激发员工的创造性和发自内心的主人翁责任感\n租户和主人翁的差别\n\n租户可能干出不买圣诞树底座，直接把圣诞树钉在地板上的事，房东自己绝不会这么短视\n不少企业高管，关心当下利益而不是长远利益，更像租户。例如不会思考少投入多产出，何必费心费力严控费用呢，反正又不是自己的钱\n\n\n\n高效团队中的事\n要增加效率，要么增加有用功，要么就降低总功。\n在亚马逊，程序员拿到需求的第一句话就是，我为什么要做这个需求，这个需求有什么用。如果你的组织都在追问为什么的话，你的效率可以提高到很快。小时候父母总是给我们压了不少他们所谓的理想，但你不去思考的话，不去经历，永远不知道父母为什么要告诉我要学这个，要干那个，带团队也是一样的道理。\n提升效率的三板斧\n抓重点\n做好数据和用户分析，找到最重要最有价值的事，用最小成本验证。\n只要你抓住重点，可以犯一万个错误，阿里犯过的错很多，但重点抓得对，方向对了，犯的一些错误也都无所谓。不要觉得什么都能干，或者跟竞争对手同质竞争，应想想怎么样干更高级一些。\n移动互联网到来的时候，两家公司都受到很大的冲击。一个是百度，一个是Google，广告是这两个搜索公司赖以生存的东西，都要迎头调整生存之道。Google干了一个事，开源android操作系统，百度干了一个事，百度外卖。Google不是个开源公司，死了200多个产品，都不开源，为什么安卓要开源，不开源现今手机市场就没它什么事了，开源让天下人去跟苹果或微软这样的公司抗衡，保住市场。百度没有抓住重点，掉队了。\n有时公司人多了以后，就会去想，这些人我得给他安排点什么事，不能让他闲着。如果你团队人少，你就会想另一个事，我的团队做不过来这么多，哪一些更重要？要想促成高效团队，就要让自己饿着，让自己条件受限，这样才会想着用工具，才会想着简化，才会想着抓重点。\n最能产生影响力的事\n最能产生影响力的事，恰恰是用户们尚且不知提出的需求。必须从用户的利益出发进行发明创造，想要探索可能性，就必须聆听自己内心的想象力。\nEcho和Alexa如此，亚马逊云服务也是如此。苹果手机也是如此。\nBig Wins\n指引发明创造的是直觉，勇气，灵感和好奇心（不是人人能干），通往成功的道路绝不可能是笔直的，尤其是带来重大突破的颠覆性创新，更需要保持耐心，给予足够的时间和空间。\n\n从有想法到上市，AWS经历了2年，Kindle三年半，Echo用了4年\n\n发明创造就像硬币的两面，丰厚的回报只是表面光鲜的一面，背面的困难艰辛，往往超乎常人的想象。\n与发明创造相伴而来的是风险，既然失败在所难免，只有规模巨大的成功（Big Wins）才能弥补多次失败带来的损失。规模巨大的必要条件是什么？就是简单本身。\n\n真正在做的过程中，大胆创意越做越小。各种绕道而行，但规模巨大不可回避。\n在撰写新闻通稿时，就必须深入挖掘可能遇到的困难和障碍是什么，制定必须坚持的设计原则（不能回避的困难）\n写新闻通稿还附上FAQ，对过程中这些思考及决策时可能会被问到的问题进行详细阐述\n\n自动化\n简化导致标准化，标准化导致自动化，自动化导致规模化。\n没有规模化就不会有效率，五年前亚马逊全球机房虚拟机一共有2400w台，两三千工程师运维2000w服务器，是不可能用人工来运营的，只能用人去管程序，程序去管机器。\n降成本\n去除支持性的工作，提高组件质量和重用，建立持续改善的文化。\n当你组织里，支持性工作越多，健康度就越糟糕，产出性的人越多，就越好。\n两种软件团队管理方式\n\n\n电影工作组\n个体有相当高智力和创造力，人们努力工作，且可享受工作。经理了解把一个伟大的软件组合起来的每一个碎片，他的角色是鼓舞大家，守护着方向（vision）\n\n\n小商品工厂\n认为人本性懒惰，逃避工作，对集体目标不关心，管理者需要以强迫，处罚，指导，金钱利益激发工作源动力。\n公司对实实在在软件开发漠不关心，想要把理想中的软件开发运作变成他们看得见的图表。对员工不信任，流程很重，组织单元和人员很多。\n\n\n用数据做支撑\n打造跨部门，跨层级，端到端的实时数据指标体系\n\n发现问题，解决问题，甚至自动完成常规决策\n发现问题专人自觉快速解决\n聚焦于因\n\n\n很多企业，组织精力都被消耗在日常经营管理上，基层经理到高管都特别忙，开各种会听各种汇报，处理各种问题\n借助于数据指标体系及智能管理工具，常规性经营决策都可以自动完成，组织精力就被极大释放出来，可以用于思考未来，布局长远，持续提升\n开会的重点通常在于讨论未来，例如如何解决反复出现的棘手问题和制定影响深远的重要决策，如何推动客户体验升级及组织能力持续提升\n\n只有被衡量，才能被提升\n今年相比去年如何实现提升？若内容相同，如何做到效率更高，成本更低。希望推陈出新，怎么实现客户体验提高。要有具体的工作计划，还要有明确清晰的衡量指标及有挑战性的提升目标\n\n\n新时代的组织能力\n在组织能力的杨三角3.0中，也是提及平台+小团队的模式（2.0中已强调授权，使命，小而精干的团队），拆解大的问题，全功能小团队，专注和简化。\n亚马逊的组织文化\n\n自己的东西要自己用（Eat your own dog food）\n两个披萨还喂不饱的团队，团队尺寸就大了，做的事情就要分解\n简化和自动化\n做产品前先逆向工作(working backwards)，准备好Press Release（新闻稿），FAQ，用户手册（User Manual ），每份不超过2页纸，不能用图表达。这要求着你的产品要是简单的，这些都可以约束提升效率\n\n创新创造的组织文化匹配–亚马逊解读\n创新创造有时需要打破大公司既有的组织架构，还原到创业的初始状态\n\n全职，最难做到\n\n挂帅人不能全情投入（有自己其它职位岗位，工作量满），这样的项目往往雷声大雨点小\n\n\n跨职能\n集中办公\n\n每一个重大突破的创新背后，都有一位卓越的项目负责人，情商，逆商都要高，兼容并包，有效激发个体，激发大家潜能与创造力，把大家拧成一股绳。\n大企业最容易落入的一种陷阱就是一刀切的重型决策机制。基层员工甚至不少中高层领导，都不了解业务的全貌，即便拥有决策权，做出的决策往往也只是局部最优，而非全局最优。组织最高层的几位领导能真正看到全貌，为保证决策质量，大事小事层层上报拍板，这样自然就快不起来，赋能授权也只能是说说而已。\n\n这种情况在传统企业比较常见，因为数字世代组织不同，传统组织设计首要原则本来就不是为了快速灵活，而是为了有效管控\n在贝索斯看来，很多传统企业决策速度慢的根本原因是对决策没有分类，不管轻重缓急，都用一套耗时长，过程繁复的方式进行决策\n对于结果影响不大的，过程可逆，可灵活调整的常规决策，要大胆授权，授权要确保这几个人能把决策做好，谁具体负责，谁就决策\n每个业务目标几个指标，每个衡量指标都有明确的责任人，决策质量都要靠强大的数据指标系统及智能管理工具提供支撑了。智能分析和工具（不搞老法师坐镇）对责任人完全开放，随时调阅查询。在信息达到70%的情况下，就可以大胆决策。不能百分百确定，就做实验低成本试错，实践出真知。\n\n必须要建立数据信息系统，否则如何打破沿袭百年的管控模式和根深蒂固的部门割据，打破人性使然的趋利避害，及时、准确、全面的掌握最佳真相呢\n\n\n另外，职能部门不能说no，如果有问题，职责在职能部门，得想办法解决，办业务部门把事做成，不搞多一事不如少一事的心态，不搞串联审批，直接并行审批。\n\n解决争议靠什么\n\n\n决议过程中，要有既要，让整个团队知道，信息平等很重要\n\n\n不妥协坚持高标准。第一标准是工业标准，第二标准是大公司标准，第三标准才是自己的经验\n\n有用要找个引用看看，谁这么干了\n\n\n\n有效争论\n\n产品原则优先\nThink Big 从更大更高的地方思考问题，大家更容易达到一致\nDivide &amp; Conquer 分而治之，绝大多数讨论没有效率，都是因为把很多东西混在一起讨论\n\nBreakdown the topic 一口一口把大象吃掉，产品，架构，运维请分开讨论\nwalk before run 从0到1，再从1到10，功能先做对，不要在讨论功能时，用性能来进行争论\n\n\nReference &amp; Data 权威引用和数据说话\n\n其它有效实践\n\n文档化：写文档是一种深度思考，会让你自己审视自己的想法\n通过演示展示工作，分享知识交流心得，接收意见改进产品\n1-2-3法则：自己处理1小时内没有思路，找人讨论，2小时内没有结果，上升至团队\n\n多说一嘴No PPT\n\n英文传意能力弱，中文PPT信息还是很大的，不可不加怀疑奉若圭臬\n\n\n只写要点时，思考往往浮于表面，内在逻辑都得靠现场讲（这就涉及英文的传意能力了，老外也特别喜欢提3C，4P等缩写用词缩写造概念，PPT信息量低）\n讲的人轻松，听的人难真正理解，之后再看，仍不知所云\n叙述问迫使阅读人深入思考，开会讨论时，也不需要讲。每个人按自己的阅读节奏，认知模式，自己读就好。高管们很难一言不发听别人讲完，经常打断别人。有时他们提的问题，其实后面就有回答，只是暂时还没讲到。既然每个人认知方式和节奏不一样，不如大家都默读，有问题记一边，看完再一起讨论。\n完成高质量的6页叙述文，并非易事，需要与人讨论反复修改，常看常新，一两天是不够的\n决策能力的培养和提升，需要不断练习\n拒绝官僚主义\n\n控制非直接人员编制\n控制费用，让人浮于事的官僚主义无处藏身\n简化流程\n\n\n\n思考的过程\n\n","categories":["技术背后"],"tags":["团队"]}]
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href="https://github.com/%E6%B5%AA%E6%BD%AE%E4%B9%8B%E5%B7%85NVIDIA.html" title="浪潮之巅NVIDIA">浪潮之巅NVIDIA</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/AI/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>AI</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%B5%AA%E6%BD%AE%E4%B9%8B%E5%B7%85/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>浪潮之巅</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2024-02-06T07:30:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-02-06 15:30:00">2024-02-06</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" 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diff --git a/tags/HR/index.html b/tags/HR/index.html
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diff --git a/tags/IT/index.html b/tags/IT/index.html
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">IT</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2025</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%B8%B8%E7%94%A8LaTeX%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7.html" title="常用LaTeX符号"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250925145753.png" alt="常用LaTeX符号" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%B8%B8%E7%94%A8LaTeX%E7%AC%A6%E5%8F%B7.html" title="常用LaTeX符号">常用LaTeX符号</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">IT</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9C%8B%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF.html" title="十年看趋势"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201116193234.png" alt="十年看趋势" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9C%8B%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF.html" title="十年看趋势">十年看趋势</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">6</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" 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+  postUpdate: '2025-11-16 22:31:12',
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@@ -450,8 +450,8 @@
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">IT</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html" title="唯品会的生存之门"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251020151459.png" alt="唯品会的生存之门" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html" title="唯品会的生存之门">唯品会的生存之门</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">11</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>行业</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-23T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-23 18:00:00">2014-05-23</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/page/2/"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; 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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">IT</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html" title="唯品会的生存之门"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251020151459.png" alt="唯品会的生存之门" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%94%AF%E5%93%81%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E4%B9%8B%E9%97%A8.html" title="唯品会的生存之门">唯品会的生存之门</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">11</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>行业</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-23T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-23 18:00:00">2014-05-23</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/tags/IT/page/2/"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">IT哲学</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E4%B9%8B%E6%BA%90.html" title="过早优化是罪恶之源"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251021133528.png" alt="过早优化是罪恶之源" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E4%B9%8B%E6%BA%90.html" title="过早优化是罪恶之源">过早优化是罪恶之源</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT哲学</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-06-18T07:30:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-06-18 15:30:00">2014-06-18</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2007</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201112190431.png" alt="软件哲学" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6.html" title="软件哲学">软件哲学</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>IT哲学</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2007-04-22T13:31:21.000Z" title="发表于 2007-04-22 21:31:21">2007-04-22</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">IT哲学</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E4%B9%8B%E6%BA%90.html" title="过早优化是罪恶之源"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251021133528.png" alt="过早优化是罪恶之源" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E4%B9%8B%E6%BA%90.html" title="过早优化是罪恶之源">过早优化是罪恶之源</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/IT%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" 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class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
+    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736.6k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T14:31:09.707Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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diff --git a/tags/index.html b/tags/index.html
index b87282c461..a5fe8a613c 100644
--- a/tags/index.html
+++ b/tags/index.html
@@ -450,8 +450,8 @@
         <span class="tags-punctuation">#</span>效率
         <span class="tagsPageCount">1</span>
       </a>
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@@ -450,8 +450,8 @@
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">云原生</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230809113620.png" alt="云原生基座下的大数据" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据">云原生基座下的大数据</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">人性</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2025</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html" title="祛魅"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250108185809.png" alt="祛魅" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A5%9B%E9%AD%85.html" title="祛魅">祛魅</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>人性</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">历史</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2025</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98.html" title="和田玉的下沉演变"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250716132428.png" alt="和田玉的下沉演变" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98.html" title="和田玉的下沉演变">和田玉的下沉演变</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a 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href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D.html" title="世界神话体系简观"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250104232827.png" alt="世界神话体系简观" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D.html" title="世界神话体系简观">世界神话体系简观</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-01-04T15:33:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-01-04 23:33:00">2025-01-04</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">历史</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" alt="历史的棋局" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">6</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">哲理</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2019</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E6%89%80%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB.html" title="我所理解的生活"><img src="https://pic2.zhimg.com/v2-a076263402de773a35c141e5c3476feb_200x112.jpg" alt="我所理解的生活" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E6%89%80%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB.html" title="我所理解的生活">我所理解的生活</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">6</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2019-12-02T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2019-12-02 18:00:00">2019-12-02</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251020135535.png" alt="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F.html" title="我们到底知道多少之意念的力量">我们到底知道多少之意念的力量</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">7</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-05-26T10:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2014-05-26 18:00:00">2014-05-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2009</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%8A%AC%E5%84%92%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89.html" title="犬儒主义"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201111191532.png" alt="犬儒主义" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%8A%AC%E5%84%92%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89.html" title="犬儒主义">犬儒主义</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">8</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>哲理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2009-11-14T17:22:00.000Z" title="发表于 2009-11-15 01:22:00">2009-11-15</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><a class="extend prev" rel="prev" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86/"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chevron-left fa-fw" style="font-weight: inherit; 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">团队</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E9%AB%98%E6%95%88%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F.html" title="高效团队和亚马逊经验"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210914171340.png" alt="高效团队和亚马逊经验" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E9%AB%98%E6%95%88%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F.html" title="高效团队和亚马逊经验">高效团队和亚马逊经验</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>团队</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>地理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-02-07T05:35:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-02-07 13:35:00">2025-02-07</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%A7%E8%88%AA%E6%B5%B7%E5%89%8D%E5%A5%8F-%E5%8F%A4%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A4%E5%BE%80.html" title="大航海前奏-古国交往"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230616113801.png" alt="大航海前奏-古国交往" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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17:11:30">2022-12-28</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83.html" title="人种迁徙与语言分布"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210324192851.png" alt="人种迁徙与语言分布" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83.html" title="人种迁徙与语言分布">人种迁徙与语言分布</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a 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href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%A7%E8%88%AA%E6%B5%B7%E5%89%8D%E5%A5%8F-%E5%8F%A4%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A4%E5%BE%80.html" title="大航海前奏-古国交往">大航海前奏-古国交往</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>地理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-06-26T12:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-06-26 20:00:00">2023-06-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2022</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%BD%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE%E7%82%AE.html" title="大国大民地图炮"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221229181830.png" alt="大国大民地图炮" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%BD%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE%E7%82%AE.html" title="大国大民地图炮">大国大民地图炮</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>地理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-12-28T09:11:30.000Z" title="发表于 2022-12-28 17:11:30">2022-12-28</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83.html" title="人种迁徙与语言分布"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210324192851.png" alt="人种迁徙与语言分布" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83.html" title="人种迁徙与语言分布">人种迁徙与语言分布</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">大数据</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230809113620.png" alt="云原生基座下的大数据" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE.html" title="云原生基座下的大数据">云原生基座下的大数据</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i 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title="数据中台与技术漫谈"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241023162552.png" alt="数据中台与技术漫谈" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%8E%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%BC%AB%E8%B0%88.html" title="数据中台与技术漫谈">数据中台与技术漫谈</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>大数据</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-01-13T03:37:06.000Z" title="发表于 2022-01-13 11:37:06">2022-01-13</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">安全</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2025</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%AD%89%E4%BF%9D%E5%88%86%E7%BA%A7.html" title="信息系统安全等级保护"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251010152354.png" alt="信息系统安全等级保护" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%AD%89%E4%BF%9D%E5%88%86%E7%BA%A7.html" title="信息系统安全等级保护">信息系统安全等级保护</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>安全</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">客户研究</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%8E%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html" title="微博微信差别与微博用户画像"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211220214439.png" alt="微博微信差别与微博用户画像" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%8E%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html" title="微博微信差别与微博用户画像">微博微信差别与微博用户画像</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-12-20T13:10:00.000Z" title="发表于 2021-12-20 21:10:00">2021-12-20</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html" title="用户思维"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201126200022.png" alt="用户思维" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html" title="用户思维">用户思维</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2020-11-26T10:47:06.000Z" title="发表于 2020-11-26 18:47:06">2020-11-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2018</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/Apps%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%BA%A7%E5%88%AB%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html" title="Apps城市级别用户画像"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/img_d01tNzZDbERSbEJrYkpFNVJvQWo5TndTWTRSQk5QZlYydmFDVmQ3RzJPM011WE41cy9xTnh3PT0.jpg" alt="Apps城市级别用户画像" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/Apps%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%BA%A7%E5%88%AB%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html" title="Apps城市级别用户画像">Apps城市级别用户画像</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2018-08-16T07:48:06.000Z" title="发表于 2018-08-16 15:48:06">2018-08-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2015</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86.html" title="产品意识"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201126174951.png" alt="产品意识" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86.html" title="产品意识">产品意识</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2015-07-28T12:14:21.000Z" title="发表于 2015-07-28 20:14:21">2015-07-28</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html" title="精品年代的竞争"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220608160902.png" alt="精品年代的竞争" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html" title="精品年代的竞争">精品年代的竞争</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">5</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>时代</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-07-02T04:59:57.000Z" title="发表于 2014-07-02 12:59:57">2014-07-02</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230709171736.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="家驹六月天"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天">家驹六月天</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T06:09:30.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 14:09:30">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-12-20T13:10:00.000Z" title="发表于 2021-12-20 21:10:00">2021-12-20</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html" title="用户思维"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201126200022.png" alt="用户思维" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html" title="用户思维">用户思维</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2020-11-26T10:47:06.000Z" title="发表于 2020-11-26 18:47:06">2020-11-26</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2018</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/Apps%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%BA%A7%E5%88%AB%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html" title="Apps城市级别用户画像"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/img_d01tNzZDbERSbEJrYkpFNVJvQWo5TndTWTRSQk5QZlYydmFDVmQ3RzJPM011WE41cy9xTnh3PT0.jpg" alt="Apps城市级别用户画像" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/Apps%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%BA%A7%E5%88%AB%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F.html" title="Apps城市级别用户画像">Apps城市级别用户画像</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2018-08-16T07:48:06.000Z" title="发表于 2018-08-16 15:48:06">2018-08-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2015</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86.html" title="产品意识"><img 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href="https://github.com/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html" title="精品年代的竞争"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220608160902.png" alt="精品年代的竞争" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%B2%BE%E5%93%81%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.html" title="精品年代的竞争">精品年代的竞争</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">5</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>客户研究</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>时代</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2014-07-02T04:59:57.000Z" title="发表于 2014-07-02 12:59:57">2014-07-02</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" 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class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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@@ -450,8 +450,8 @@
         <span class="tags-punctuation">#</span>效率
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       </a>
-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">效率</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%8E%BB%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%86.html" title="时间去哪了"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210204153707.png" alt="时间去哪了" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%8E%BB%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%86.html" title="时间去哪了">时间去哪了</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>效率</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-02-04T08:49:06.000Z" title="发表于 2021-02-04 16:49:06">2021-02-04</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img 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15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">数据库</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93schema%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html" title="数据库schema概念差异"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230619174001.png" alt="数据库schema概念差异" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93schema%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html" title="数据库schema概念差异">数据库schema概念差异</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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by过程">从Error Based Injection看MySQL group by过程</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>数据库</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-08-10T02:33:25.000Z" title="发表于 2022-08-10 10:33:25">2022-08-10</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230709171736.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="家驹六月天"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天">家驹六月天</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T06:09:30.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 14:09:30">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">数据库</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93schema%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html" title="数据库schema概念差异"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230619174001.png" alt="数据库schema概念差异" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93schema%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html" title="数据库schema概念差异">数据库schema概念差异</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>文化</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-07-14T07:32:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-07-14 15:32:00">2025-07-14</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2024</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E6%9C%AA%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%89%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F.html" title="东亚未发展有魅力的生活方式"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20241226144808.png" alt="东亚未发展有魅力的生活方式" 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href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html" title="中国式思维"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240222183801.png" alt="中国式思维" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4.html" title="中国式思维">中国式思维</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>文化</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2024-02-22T10:38:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-02-22 18:38:00">2024-02-22</time></div></div></div></div><div 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href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">日记</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%97%85%E8%80%85.html" title="人文旅者"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/IMG_20190531_115857.jpg" alt="人文旅者" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%97%85%E8%80%85.html" title="人文旅者">人文旅者</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>日记</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-02-02T11:50:06.000Z" title="发表于 2021-02-02 19:50:06">2021-02-02</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B2020.html" title="回望2020"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210105162027.png" alt="回望2020" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B2020.html" title="回望2020">回望2020</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>时代</span></a><a 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class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9B%B8%E8%81%9A.html" title="毕业十年相聚">毕业十年相聚</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>日记</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2015-10-08T09:15:00.000Z" title="发表于 2015-10-08 17:15:00">2015-10-08</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div 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href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230709171736.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="家驹六月天"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天">家驹六月天</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T06:09:30.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 14:09:30">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">日记</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%97%85%E8%80%85.html" title="人文旅者"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/IMG_20190531_115857.jpg" alt="人文旅者" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%97%85%E8%80%85.html" title="人文旅者">人文旅者</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>日记</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9B%B8%E8%81%9A.html" title="毕业十年相聚">毕业十年相聚</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>日记</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2015-10-08T09:15:00.000Z" title="发表于 2015-10-08 17:15:00">2015-10-08</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>软件工程</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E8%B4%A8%E6%95%88/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>研发质效</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-05-23T08:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-05-23 16:00:00">2022-05-23</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2019</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9E%97%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%BD%E7%83%AD%E9%97%B9.html" title="中台的林子好热闹"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201117104745.png" alt="中台的林子好热闹" 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14:09:30">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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-    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T00:17:37.912Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2024-07-17T10:30:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-07-17 18:30:00">2024-07-17</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F%E8%A1%A1%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB.html" title="通用度量衡关系"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210219092531.png" alt="通用度量衡关系" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F%E8%A1%A1%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB.html" title="通用度量衡关系">通用度量衡关系</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%89%A9%E7%90%86/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>物理</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-02-19T01:20:06.000Z" title="发表于 2021-02-19 09:20:06">2021-02-19</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%B7%B3%E5%88%B0%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.html" title="跳到你的高维空间"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/%E9%AB%98%E7%BB%B4%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4.jpg" alt="跳到你的高维空间" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
+    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736.6k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T14:31:09.707Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>生物</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2025-01-31T05:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2025-01-31 13:00:00">2025-01-31</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD.html" title="平均预期寿命理解"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250105090227.png" alt="平均预期寿命理解" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD.html" title="平均预期寿命理解">平均预期寿命理解</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a 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href="https://github.com/%E8%AE%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1.html" title="让大脑自由">让大脑自由</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>生物</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-08-01T15:40:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-08-01 23:40:00">2023-08-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2022</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E9%A2%88%E9%83%A8%E8%A7%82%E6%84%9F%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html" title="颈部观感差异解读"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220216193337.png" alt="颈部观感差异解读" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E9%A2%88%E9%83%A8%E8%A7%82%E6%84%9F%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html" title="颈部观感差异解读">颈部观感差异解读</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">5</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>生物</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-02-17T08:43:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-02-17 16:43:00">2022-02-17</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span><a class="page-number" 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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">生物</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2025</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%92%B8%E9%A6%8F%E7%83%A7%E9%85%92.html" title="蒸馏烧酒"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250131125213.png" alt="蒸馏烧酒" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%92%B8%E9%A6%8F%E7%83%A7%E9%85%92.html" title="蒸馏烧酒">蒸馏烧酒</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" 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19:41:21">2020-11-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2008</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html" title="为什么女性有永久性乳房"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201119202156.png" alt="为什么女性有永久性乳房" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html" title="为什么女性有永久性乳房">为什么女性有永久性乳房</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">10</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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19:41:21">2020-11-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2008</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html" title="为什么女性有永久性乳房"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201119202156.png" alt="为什么女性有永久性乳房" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF.html" title="为什么女性有永久性乳房">为什么女性有永久性乳房</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">10</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">社交</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210813165310.png" alt="女性婚恋相亲窘境" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境">女性婚恋相亲窘境</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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-    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T00:17:37.912Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">社交</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210813165310.png" alt="女性婚恋相亲窘境" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E7%AA%98%E5%A2%83.html" title="女性婚恋相亲窘境">女性婚恋相亲窘境</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" 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class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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@@ -450,8 +450,8 @@
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">算法</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2024</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%90%9C%E7%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8.html" title="搜索的本质"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240115180931.png" alt="搜索的本质" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%90%9C%E7%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8.html" title="搜索的本质">搜索的本质</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>算法</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2024-01-16T08:37:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-01-16 16:37:00">2024-01-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A0%86%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F.html" title="堆排序与归并排序"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221024110942.png" alt="堆排序与归并排序" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A0%86%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F.html" title="堆排序与归并排序">堆排序与归并排序</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" 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title="协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记">协同过滤（CF）的一些小笔记</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/AI/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>AI</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>算法</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2019-12-09T10:32:06.000Z" title="发表于 2019-12-09 18:32:06">2019-12-09</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div 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-    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T00:17:37.912Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img 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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">网络</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2016</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/LVS%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F.html" title="LVS三类工作模式"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201020083838.png" alt="LVS三类工作模式" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/LVS%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F.html" title="LVS三类工作模式">LVS三类工作模式</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>网络</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2016-04-18T06:55:52.000Z" title="发表于 2016-04-18 14:55:52">2016-04-18</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">职涯</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2025</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B-%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%AE%E4%B9%A0.html" title="软件工程-理念与修习"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20250617135917.png" alt="软件工程-理念与修习" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B-%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%AE%E4%B9%A0.html" title="软件工程-理念与修习">软件工程-理念与修习</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%81%8C%E6%B6%AF/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230709171736.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="家驹六月天"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天">家驹六月天</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T06:09:30.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 14:09:30">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
-    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T00:17:37.912Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">访谈</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E4%B8%89%E4%BE%8B%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E6%84%9F%E6%83%B3.html" title="面试三例观察感想"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210107194940.png" alt="面试三例观察感想" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E4%B8%89%E4%BE%8B%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E6%84%9F%E6%83%B3.html" title="面试三例观察感想">面试三例观察感想</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>访谈</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2019-12-24T10:32:06.000Z" title="发表于 2019-12-24 18:32:06">2019-12-24</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2014</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/95%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84Jobs%E8%AE%BF%E8%B0%88.html" title="95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/jobs.jpg" alt="95年的Jobs访谈-持续创新与天才的管理" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" 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id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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-    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T00:17:37.912Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">软件工程</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2024</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83.html" title="软件的信心"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240229111940.png" alt="软件的信心" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83.html" title="软件的信心">软件的信心</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>软件工程</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E8%B4%A8%E6%95%88/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>研发质效</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2024-02-29T03:50:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-02-29 11:50:00">2024-02-29</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2022</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%88%E4%B8%8ESQALE.html" title="架构师与SQALE"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220523155731.png" alt="架构师与SQALE" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%88%E4%B8%8ESQALE.html" title="架构师与SQALE">架构师与SQALE</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>架构</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>软件工程</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E8%B4%A8%E6%95%88/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>研发质效</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-05-23T08:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-05-23 16:00:00">2022-05-23</time></div></div></div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number 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href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
+    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736.6k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T14:31:09.707Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">软技能</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2024</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%BD%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D.html" title="好好说话"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240322175707.png" alt="好好说话" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%BD%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D.html" title="好好说话">好好说话</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%BD%AF%E6%8A%80%E8%83%BD/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>软技能</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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-    <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-angle-right"></i></a></div><ul class="card-archive-list"><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/10/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">十月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">5</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/09/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">九月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">4</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/07/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">七月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">二月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/01/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">一月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">6</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li></ul></div><hr/><div class="card-webinfo"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-chart-line"></i><span>网站资讯</span></div><div class="webinfo"><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-lines"></i><div class="item-name">文章总数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">187</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-stopwatch"></i><div class="item-name">建站天数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="runtimeshow" data-publishDate="2018-07-12T16:00:00.000Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-font"></i><div class="item-name">全站字数 :</div></div><div class="item-count">736k</div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-universal-access"></i><div class="item-name">总访客数 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-square-poll-vertical"></i><div class="item-name">总访问量 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div><div class="webinfo-item"><div class="webinfo-item-title"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hourglass-start"></i><div class="item-name">最后更新 :</div></div><div class="item-count" id="last-push-date" data-lastPushDate="2025-11-16T00:17:37.912Z"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-spinner anzhiyu-spin"></i></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main><footer id="footer"><div id="footer-wrap"></div><div id="footer-bar"><div class="footer-bar-links"><div class="footer-bar-left"><div id="footer-bar-tips"><div class="copyright">&copy;2018 - 2025 By <a class="footer-bar-link" href="https://github.com/" title="DiffDay" target="_blank">DiffDay</a></div></div><div id="footer-type-tips"></div><div class="js-pjax"><script>function subtitleType () {
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href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210323171846.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="穷查理宝典"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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       </a>
-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">金融</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%95%E4%BB%93.html" title="理财的底牌"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230328180626.png" alt="理财的底牌" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%95%E4%BB%93.html" title="理财的底牌">理财的底牌</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-04-03T11:17:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-04-03 19:17:00">2023-04-03</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2022</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E4%B8%8E%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9.html" title="保险业的监管与改革"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220106170319.png" alt="保险业的监管与改革" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E4%B8%8E%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9.html" title="保险业的监管与改革">保险业的监管与改革</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>行业</span></a><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2022-01-06T09:03:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-01-06 17:03:00">2022-01-06</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1.html" title="经济与债务"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211026172632.png" alt="经济与债务" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1.html" title="经济与债务">经济与债务</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">3</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-11-18T12:38:00.000Z" title="发表于 2021-11-18 20:38:00">2021-11-18</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA%E8%A1%A8%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html" title="央行负债表解读"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211116152006.png" alt="央行负债表解读" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA%E8%A1%A8%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html" title="央行负债表解读">央行负债表解读</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-11-16T09:50:00.000Z" title="发表于 2021-11-16 17:50:00">2021-11-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E5%8F%97%E9%9A%BE%E8%AE%B0.html" title="蚂蚁上市受难记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201215165752.png" alt="蚂蚁上市受难记" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E5%8F%97%E9%9A%BE%E8%AE%B0.html" title="蚂蚁上市受难记">蚂蚁上市受难记</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">5</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2020-12-15T08:40:21.000Z" title="发表于 2020-12-15 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title="家驹六月天">家驹六月天</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T06:09:30.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 14:09:30">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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+    </div><div class="article-sort-title">金融</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%95%E4%BB%93.html" title="理财的底牌"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230328180626.png" alt="理财的底牌" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%95%E4%BB%93.html" title="理财的底牌">理财的底牌</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont 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onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA%E8%A1%A8%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB.html" title="央行负债表解读">央行负债表解读</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">4</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>金融</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2021-11-16T09:50:00.000Z" title="发表于 2021-11-16 17:50:00">2021-11-16</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2020</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" 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href="https://github.com/%E7%A9%B7%E6%9F%A5%E7%90%86%E5%AE%9D%E5%85%B8.html" title="穷查理宝典">穷查理宝典</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T08:50:53.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 16:50:53">2025-11-01</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-archives"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-archive"></i><span>归档</span><a class="card-more-btn" href="https://github.com/archives/" title="查看更多">
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-    </div><div class="article-sort-title">音乐</div><div class="article-sort"><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2023</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230709171736.png" alt="家驹六月天" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%85%AD%E6%9C%88%E5%A4%A9.html" title="家驹六月天">家驹六月天</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">1</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%9F%B3%E4%B9%90/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>音乐</span></a></span><div class="article-sort-item-time"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-alt"></i><time class="post-meta-date-created" datetime="2023-08-01T17:00:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-08-02 01:00:00">2023-08-02</time></div></div></div></div><div class="article-sort-item year"><span>2021</span></div><div class="article-sort-item"><a class="article-sort-item-img" href="https://github.com/%E6%B2%B9%E8%85%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%91%A8%E8%91%A3.html" title="油腻的周董"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210225193858.png" alt="油腻的周董" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'"></a><div class="article-sort-item-info"><a class="article-sort-item-title" href="https://github.com/%E6%B2%B9%E8%85%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%91%A8%E8%91%A3.html" title="油腻的周董">油腻的周董</a><span class="article-sort-item-index">2</span><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="article-sort-item-tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E9%9F%B3%E4%B9%90/" tabindex="-1"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont 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diff --git "a/\344\270\207\345\205\203\347\276\216\351\207\221\346\227\266\344\273\243.html" "b/\344\270\207\345\205\203\347\276\216\351\207\221\346\227\266\344\273\243.html"
index e78deba2e0..51113fe335 100644
--- "a/\344\270\207\345\205\203\347\276\216\351\207\221\346\227\266\344\273\243.html"
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@@ -464,7 +464,7 @@ <h2 id="供给侧改革">供给侧改革</h2>
 <li>长期没有其它办法，只能靠日积月累的技术进步，也是供给侧改革的缘由</li>
 </ul>
 <h1>参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sohu.com/a/292946125_117959">人均GDP到一万美元时都发生了什么</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div 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class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">万元美金的界限感</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">万元美金世代人群趋势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市化趋势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%A9%AC%E5%A4%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市马太</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A3%81%E9%93%81%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%88%E7%81%AB%E7%84%B0%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">磁铁城市（火焰）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%BD%E7%A6%BB%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%88%E6%B5%B7%E6%B0%B4%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">抽离城市（海水）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%9A%84%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市的胜利</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">房产的拐角</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%B1%9E%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">投资属性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E4%B8%8E%E8%B0%83%E6%8E%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">增长与调控</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">调控的本质</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%90%E8%A7%92%E5%90%8E%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拐角后时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%9F%E9%87%91%E5%8D%B3%E7%8E%8B%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">租金即王道</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%EF%BC%8C%E2%80%9D%E8%88%92%E9%80%82%E2%80%9C%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不同收入阶段，”舒适“的定义不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%EF%BC%8C%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E8%B6%8A%E6%9D%A5%E8%B6%8A%E8%B4%B5"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">收入提高，时间越来越贵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E6%99%AF%E6%88%BF%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">海景房的问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E2%80%9D%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%85%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB%E2%80%9C%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E5%AD%A6%E4%BD%8D%E6%88%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">财富”代际转移“需求：学位房</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">在恐惧中贪婪</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通胀</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%BD%8E%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">高低不明确</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球贸易特征</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#G2%E6%91%A9%E6%93%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">G2摩擦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美国的核心竞争力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">科学技术</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币金融</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%9C%B0%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球领导地位</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#G2%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">G2产业差异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B8%E7%A6%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">幸福的烦恼</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%8D%E4%B8%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">消费时代降临</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E5%BC%80%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">改开驱动力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E6%BA%90%E6%80%A7%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">5.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济结构的本源性特征</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80%E8%A6%81%E6%8B%85%E5%BF%83%E6%98%AF%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯一要担心是创新的不足</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E4%BE%A7%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">供给侧改革</span></a></li></ol></li><li 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class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">万元美金的界限感</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">万元美金世代人群趋势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市化趋势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%A9%AC%E5%A4%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市马太</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A3%81%E9%93%81%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%88%E7%81%AB%E7%84%B0%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">磁铁城市（火焰）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%BD%E7%A6%BB%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%88%E6%B5%B7%E6%B0%B4%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">抽离城市（海水）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%9A%84%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市的胜利</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">房产的拐角</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%B1%9E%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">投资属性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E4%B8%8E%E8%B0%83%E6%8E%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">增长与调控</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">调控的本质</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%90%E8%A7%92%E5%90%8E%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拐角后时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%9F%E9%87%91%E5%8D%B3%E7%8E%8B%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">租金即王道</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%EF%BC%8C%E2%80%9D%E8%88%92%E9%80%82%E2%80%9C%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不同收入阶段，”舒适“的定义不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%EF%BC%8C%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E8%B6%8A%E6%9D%A5%E8%B6%8A%E8%B4%B5"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">收入提高，时间越来越贵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E6%99%AF%E6%88%BF%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">海景房的问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E2%80%9D%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%85%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB%E2%80%9C%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E5%AD%A6%E4%BD%8D%E6%88%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">财富”代际转移“需求：学位房</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">在恐惧中贪婪</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通胀</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%BD%8E%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">高低不明确</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球贸易特征</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#G2%E6%91%A9%E6%93%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">G2摩擦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美国的核心竞争力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">科学技术</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币金融</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%9C%B0%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球领导地位</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#G2%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">G2产业差异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B8%E7%A6%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">幸福的烦恼</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%8D%E4%B8%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">消费时代降临</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E5%BC%80%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">改开驱动力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E6%BA%90%E6%80%A7%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">5.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济结构的本源性特征</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80%E8%A6%81%E6%8B%85%E5%BF%83%E6%98%AF%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯一要担心是创新的不足</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E4%BE%A7%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">供给侧改革</span></a></li></ol></li><li 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+++ "b/\344\270\211\345\210\231\351\235\242\350\257\225\347\232\204\346\211\200\345\275\225\346\211\200\346\203\263.html"
@@ -258,7 +258,7 @@ <h1>后记</h1>
 <li>工作内容有趣化（难，持久，但员工兴趣感知不同）</li>
 </ul>
 <p>最顶级的公司，肯定两者都不能缺了。追其本质，团队管理者还是在难的一条路上多下功夫。</p>
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class="toc-text">做专做扎实，做领域（行业）专家</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%80%83%E6%A0%B8"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中台如何考核</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8C%AB%E5%8E%82%E8%BF%98%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E5%9B%9E%E5%91%B3%E7%9A%84%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">猫厂还有哪些值得回味的点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E6%95%8F%E6%8D%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为敏捷</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E6%8A%BD%E8%B1%A1%EF%BC%8C%E6%8B%94%E9%AB%98%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结抽象，拔高认知</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Case 2</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8F%98%E7%8E%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据变现的渠道有哪些</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E6%80%A7%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81-%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA-%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82-%E5%A4%A9%E8%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">个性特征+动机+价值观 &#x3D; 天赋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E6%94%BE%E6%9D%BE%E8%B6%8A%E7%9C%9F%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">越放松越真实</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Case 3</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%88%99%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E5%8F%8D%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一则面试反例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%97%95%E8%BF%B9%E4%BD%93%E7%8E%B0%E7%BB%8F%E5%8E%86%EF%BC%8C%E8%A7%82%E7%82%B9%E4%BD%93%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">痕迹体现经历，观点体现价值观</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Case 1</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E4%B8%93%E5%81%9A%E6%89%8E%E5%AE%9E%EF%BC%8C%E5%81%9A%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%EF%BC%88%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%EF%BC%89%E4%B8%93%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">做专做扎实，做领域（行业）专家</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%80%83%E6%A0%B8"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中台如何考核</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8C%AB%E5%8E%82%E8%BF%98%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E5%9B%9E%E5%91%B3%E7%9A%84%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">猫厂还有哪些值得回味的点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E6%95%8F%E6%8D%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为敏捷</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E6%8A%BD%E8%B1%A1%EF%BC%8C%E6%8B%94%E9%AB%98%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结抽象，拔高认知</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Case 2</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8F%98%E7%8E%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据变现的渠道有哪些</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E6%80%A7%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81-%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA-%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82-%E5%A4%A9%E8%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">个性特征+动机+价值观 &#x3D; 天赋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E6%94%BE%E6%9D%BE%E8%B6%8A%E7%9C%9F%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">越放松越真实</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Case 3</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%88%99%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E5%8F%8D%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一则面试反例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%97%95%E8%BF%B9%E4%BD%93%E7%8E%B0%E7%BB%8F%E5%8E%86%EF%BC%8C%E8%A7%82%E7%82%B9%E4%BD%93%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">痕迹体现经历，观点体现价值观</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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index 1b337bfe84..b38c1945dd 100644
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@@ -586,7 +586,7 @@ <h3 id="困兽之斗的时代解读">困兽之斗的时代解读</h3>
 <p><font color="blur">曹操给官打袁术，袁术给粮打刘备，曹操有政治，刘备有人望，袁术有兵马，吕布陷入了代理人战争</font>，<strong>一个在兖州饿得死去活来的集团，没办法，他需要那些官位粮草</strong>，曹操有饭吃时，眼光看得长远，逼急了也得看眼前利益，就像很多人需要窝窝头不需要长远机会一样，你和一些人说AI是风口，新能源是未来有屁用，他吃了上顿下顿还要去赊账，哪能顾得了那么长远。</p>
 <p>吕布一生无一例外是被人摆布，困兽之斗。他对朝堂有功，对袁家有恩，虽不是他的主观本心，也是客观存在。<strong>唯物史观喷他没问题，也可以说他世俗，牌桌上的下等人，心性上的普通人，品格上的差等人</strong>，个人史观也没问题，但还是应以唯物为主，否则易陷入唯心主义和虚无主义。然而最后最重要的还是以吕布为原型，创造了一个头戴束发紫金冠，身披西蜀红锦袍，手持方天，马踏中原的经典艺术形象，这种过程快乐更是读者喜闻乐见的。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">古诗文网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://so.gushiwen.cn/guwen/book_560c102fbf13.aspx">英雄记</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/12229534.html">关于吕布的年龄</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/538032085">汉书-元后传</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">故宫博物院 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.dpm.org.cn/Uploads/pdf/2209/T00028_00.pdf">宝玺源流</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">新浪新闻 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://news.sina.cn/gn/2020-04-26/detail-iirczymi8432074.d.html">公元420年代，他为何要为《三国志》作注？</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sohu.com/a/670012305_121450186">盘点历代后勤兵比例</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">抖音-以古为镜老汪 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://v.douyin.com/i2M3jp8E/">吕布，世俗里的困兽</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" 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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%87%BA%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国人物出场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#30%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">30后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#40%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">40后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#50%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">50后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%95%E5%B8%83%E7%9A%84%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">吕布的年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#60%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">60后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%BF%A0%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄忠年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#70%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">70后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#80%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">80后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E5%BB%B6%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏延年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#90%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">90后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#00%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">00后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#10%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">10后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#20%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">20后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#30%E5%90%8E-2"><span class="toc-number">1.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">30后</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%B7%BE%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄巾之乱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%A4%A9%E5%BD%93%E7%AB%8B%E7%AB%8B%E4%B8%8D%E4%BD%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄天当立立不住</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%B7%BE%E6%97%B6%E5%87%A0%E8%B7%AF%E4%B8%BB%E8%A7%92%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄巾时几路主角年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%A4%E5%A3%81%E4%B8%89%E5%88%86%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">赤壁三分年龄考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">刘</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%99"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">孙</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E5%90%88%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E6%BC%94%E4%B9%89-%E8%A3%B4%E6%9D%BE%E4%B9%8B%E6%B3%A8%E3%80%8A%E4%BA%91%E5%88%AB%E4%BC%A0%E3%80%8B%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E8%B5%B5%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结合三国演义+裴松之注《云别传》解读赵云</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%93%9C%E9%9B%80%E6%98%A5%E6%B7%B1%E9%94%81%E4%BA%8C%E4%B9%94%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">铜雀春深锁二乔？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A7%E9%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E5%87%A4%E9%9B%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">卧龙与凤雏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E9%9B%84%E6%9A%AE%E5%B9%B4%E7%BB%8F%E4%B8%8D%E8%B5%B7%E6%89%93%E5%87%BB"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">英雄暮年经不起打击</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E5%AE%B6%E4%B8%8D%E8%80%90%E7%86%AC"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹家不耐熬</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E5%B9%B3%E9%99%B5%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B2%A1%E4%BA%BA%E9%98%BB%E6%AD%A2%E5%8F%B8%E9%A9%AC%E6%87%BF"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">高平陵之变为何没人阻止司马懿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AD%E7%83%88%E5%B8%9D%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">昭烈帝生平</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%AA%E8%81%8C%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">伪职期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%98%E6%96%B9%E8%AE%A4%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%AD%E7%BA%A7%E5%86%9B%E5%AE%98"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">官方认定中级军官</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9C%E5%9F%8E%E4%BA%AD%E4%BE%AF%E6%9C%89%E5%90%A6%E8%BE%B1%E6%B2%A1"><span class="toc-number">10.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">宜城亭侯有否辱没?</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8D%A3%E8%86%BA%E5%B7%A6%E5%B0%86%E5%86%9B"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">荣膺左将军</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9B%E8%81%8C%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">10.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">军职阶层</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A6%E5%B0%86%E5%86%9B%E8%B0%A2%E5%B9%95"><span class="toc-number">10.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">左将军谢幕</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E9%9B%84%E4%B8%8D%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">10.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">英雄不简单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8A%82-%E9%92%BA"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">节&amp;钺</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国人口变动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%B7%E5%85%B5%E5%99%A8%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%88%98%E6%96%97"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">冷兵器时代的战斗</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B5%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">兵力估算</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E5%B9%B3%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">13.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">长平之战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E5%8C%88%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">13.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉匈之战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E5%AE%8B%E8%AE%B0%E5%BD%95"><span class="toc-number">13.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">北宋记录</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E5%BE%81%E9%AB%98%E5%8F%A5%E4%B8%BD"><span class="toc-number">13.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋征高句丽</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%98%E6%8D%9F%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">战损比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A6%E5%B0%86%E5%8D%95%E6%8C%91"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">武将单挑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%89%E7%8E%BA%E5%93%AA%E5%8E%BB%E4%BA%86%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">传国玉玺哪去了？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%A2%E5%88%B6%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B1%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">15.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">传国玺的形制和由来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A8%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8B%E6%89%8D%E6%9D%90%E8%B4%A8%E8%B0%A3%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">15.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讨论下才材质谣言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%BA%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国玺文字是什么？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%96%B9%E5%8D%B0%E5%88%BB8%E4%B8%AA%E5%AD%97%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小方印刻8个字可能么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么字体？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%84%E4%B8%A2%E5%8F%88%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0"><span class="toc-number">15.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">弄丢又找到</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8%E6%9C%80%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">真相最可能是什么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%81%E8%83%9C%E5%8D%81%E8%B4%A5%E9%BB%91%E6%9C%AC%E5%88%9D%EF%BC%8C%E9%98%BF%E7%9E%92%E6%9B%B4%E6%8B%BC%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E8%B5%A2"><span class="toc-number">16.</span> <span class="toc-text">十胜十败黑本初，阿瞒更拼值得赢</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%8B%E5%A3%AB%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%81%9A%E4%B8%8D%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%8A%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">16.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">谋士为何做不了一把手</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%91%A3%E5%8D%93%E4%B9%9F%E6%9B%BE%E7%94%98%E5%BD%93%E7%89%9B%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">17.</span> <span class="toc-text">董卓也曾甘当牛马</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%9B%B0%E5%85%BD%E5%90%95%E5%A5%89%E5%85%88"><span class="toc-number">18.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代困兽吕奉先</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%BA%89%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%B1%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">18.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要争的就是一个公平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%B0%E5%85%BD%E4%B9%8B%E6%96%97%E7%9A%84%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">18.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">困兽之斗的时代解读</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">19.</span> <span 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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%87%BA%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国人物出场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#30%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">30后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#40%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">40后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#50%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">50后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%95%E5%B8%83%E7%9A%84%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">吕布的年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#60%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">60后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%BF%A0%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄忠年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#70%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">70后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#80%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">80后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E5%BB%B6%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏延年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#90%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">90后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#00%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">00后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#10%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">10后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#20%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">20后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#30%E5%90%8E-2"><span class="toc-number">1.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">30后</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%B7%BE%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄巾之乱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%A4%A9%E5%BD%93%E7%AB%8B%E7%AB%8B%E4%B8%8D%E4%BD%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄天当立立不住</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%B7%BE%E6%97%B6%E5%87%A0%E8%B7%AF%E4%B8%BB%E8%A7%92%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄巾时几路主角年龄</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%A4%E5%A3%81%E4%B8%89%E5%88%86%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">赤壁三分年龄考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">刘</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%99"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">孙</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E5%90%88%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E6%BC%94%E4%B9%89-%E8%A3%B4%E6%9D%BE%E4%B9%8B%E6%B3%A8%E3%80%8A%E4%BA%91%E5%88%AB%E4%BC%A0%E3%80%8B%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E8%B5%B5%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结合三国演义+裴松之注《云别传》解读赵云</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%93%9C%E9%9B%80%E6%98%A5%E6%B7%B1%E9%94%81%E4%BA%8C%E4%B9%94%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">铜雀春深锁二乔？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A7%E9%BE%99%E4%B8%8E%E5%87%A4%E9%9B%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">卧龙与凤雏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E9%9B%84%E6%9A%AE%E5%B9%B4%E7%BB%8F%E4%B8%8D%E8%B5%B7%E6%89%93%E5%87%BB"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">英雄暮年经不起打击</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E5%AE%B6%E4%B8%8D%E8%80%90%E7%86%AC"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹家不耐熬</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E5%B9%B3%E9%99%B5%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B2%A1%E4%BA%BA%E9%98%BB%E6%AD%A2%E5%8F%B8%E9%A9%AC%E6%87%BF"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">高平陵之变为何没人阻止司马懿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AD%E7%83%88%E5%B8%9D%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">昭烈帝生平</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%AA%E8%81%8C%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">伪职期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%98%E6%96%B9%E8%AE%A4%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%AD%E7%BA%A7%E5%86%9B%E5%AE%98"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">官方认定中级军官</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9C%E5%9F%8E%E4%BA%AD%E4%BE%AF%E6%9C%89%E5%90%A6%E8%BE%B1%E6%B2%A1"><span class="toc-number">10.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">宜城亭侯有否辱没?</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8D%A3%E8%86%BA%E5%B7%A6%E5%B0%86%E5%86%9B"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">荣膺左将军</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9B%E8%81%8C%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">10.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">军职阶层</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A6%E5%B0%86%E5%86%9B%E8%B0%A2%E5%B9%95"><span class="toc-number">10.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">左将军谢幕</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E9%9B%84%E4%B8%8D%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">10.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">英雄不简单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8A%82-%E9%92%BA"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">节&amp;钺</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国人口变动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%B7%E5%85%B5%E5%99%A8%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%88%98%E6%96%97"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">冷兵器时代的战斗</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B5%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">兵力估算</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E5%B9%B3%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">13.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">长平之战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E5%8C%88%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">13.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉匈之战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E5%AE%8B%E8%AE%B0%E5%BD%95"><span class="toc-number">13.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">北宋记录</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E5%BE%81%E9%AB%98%E5%8F%A5%E4%B8%BD"><span class="toc-number">13.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋征高句丽</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%98%E6%8D%9F%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">战损比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A6%E5%B0%86%E5%8D%95%E6%8C%91"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">武将单挑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%89%E7%8E%BA%E5%93%AA%E5%8E%BB%E4%BA%86%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">传国玉玺哪去了？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%A2%E5%88%B6%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B1%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">15.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">传国玺的形制和由来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A8%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8B%E6%89%8D%E6%9D%90%E8%B4%A8%E8%B0%A3%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">15.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讨论下才材质谣言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%BA%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国玺文字是什么？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%96%B9%E5%8D%B0%E5%88%BB8%E4%B8%AA%E5%AD%97%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小方印刻8个字可能么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么字体？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%84%E4%B8%A2%E5%8F%88%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0"><span class="toc-number">15.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">弄丢又找到</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8%E6%9C%80%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">15.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">真相最可能是什么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%81%E8%83%9C%E5%8D%81%E8%B4%A5%E9%BB%91%E6%9C%AC%E5%88%9D%EF%BC%8C%E9%98%BF%E7%9E%92%E6%9B%B4%E6%8B%BC%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E8%B5%A2"><span class="toc-number">16.</span> <span class="toc-text">十胜十败黑本初，阿瞒更拼值得赢</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%8B%E5%A3%AB%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%81%9A%E4%B8%8D%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%8A%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">16.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">谋士为何做不了一把手</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%91%A3%E5%8D%93%E4%B9%9F%E6%9B%BE%E7%94%98%E5%BD%93%E7%89%9B%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">17.</span> <span class="toc-text">董卓也曾甘当牛马</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%9B%B0%E5%85%BD%E5%90%95%E5%A5%89%E5%85%88"><span class="toc-number">18.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代困兽吕奉先</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%BA%89%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%B1%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">18.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要争的就是一个公平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%B0%E5%85%BD%E4%B9%8B%E6%96%97%E7%9A%84%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">18.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">困兽之斗的时代解读</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">19.</span> <span 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@@ -258,7 +258,7 @@ <h3 id="司马复出">司马复出</h3>
 <p>司马仲达：我笑那王朗，虽称满腹经纶，却是鸡肠鼠肚，连几句恶语都容它不下，活该有此下场。你等要记住，<strong>为人者，有大度，成大器也</strong>！</p>
 <p>司马昭：父亲，赞他是你，咒他也是你，儿不知孰去孰从？</p>
 <p>司马仲达：<strong>夫处世之道，亦即应变之术</strong>，岂可偏执一端？用兵之道亦然如此，皆贵在随机应变。</p>
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diff --git "a/\344\270\211\350\247\202\344\270\216\345\212\250\346\234\272.html" "b/\344\270\211\350\247\202\344\270\216\345\212\250\346\234\272.html"
index c1b13f7bc5..a0f915a6a1 100644
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@@ -463,7 +463,7 @@ <h3 id="三类动机关系图">三类动机关系图</h3>
    commit id:"挂掉"</pre>
 <h3 id="商业组织的挑战">商业组织的挑战</h3>
 <p><strong>训练人们停止聚焦于自己，开始聚焦于团队</strong></p>
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class="toc-text">价值观在非个体</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%AA%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值观在个体</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E8%A7%82-%E7%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">世界观:真</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E8%A7%82-%E7%BE%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生观:美</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生动机</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%9C%A8%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%88%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内在需求：成就动机（价值观）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%AF%86%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何识别一个人的成就动机？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%9C%A8%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%88%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内在需求：职业动机（职业成长动力）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%9E%8B-2"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%86%E5%88%AB%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">识别职业动机的问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E5%92%8C%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%98%A0%E5%B0%84%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成就动机和职业动机的映射矩阵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E6%99%AE%E9%81%8D%E6%80%A7%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它普遍性动机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E5%9C%A8%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">外在需求：工作动机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">三类动机关系图</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">商业组织的挑战</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="toc-text">价值观在非个体</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%AA%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值观在个体</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E8%A7%82-%E7%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">世界观:真</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E8%A7%82-%E7%BE%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生观:美</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生动机</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%9C%A8%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%88%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内在需求：成就动机（价值观）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%AF%86%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何识别一个人的成就动机？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%9C%A8%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%88%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内在需求：职业动机（职业成长动力）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%9E%8B-2"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%86%E5%88%AB%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">识别职业动机的问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E5%92%8C%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%98%A0%E5%B0%84%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成就动机和职业动机的映射矩阵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E6%99%AE%E9%81%8D%E6%80%A7%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它普遍性动机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E5%9C%A8%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%9A%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">外在需求：工作动机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">三类动机关系图</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">商业组织的挑战</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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diff --git "a/\344\270\226\347\225\214\347\245\236\350\257\235.html" "b/\344\270\226\347\225\214\347\245\236\350\257\235.html"
index 4f11f6e768..d401068a66 100644
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@@ -218,7 +218,7 @@ <h2 id="日本">日本</h2>
 <p>日本神话受到中国的影响，日本最早的神话古籍《日本书纪》和《古事记》基本都是用汉字编写。日本神话从创立之初，就背负一项重要任务，就是将日本所有神灵和信仰全都融合起来，然后再说明天皇对这些神灵有绝对的统治权。</p>
 <p>日本神话有两大特点：第一个是八百万神，<strong>日本神话几乎每时每刻都在造神，任何事件都可以造神，哭、吐、拉都能造神，真是映照了这个国度崇尚生育的观念</strong>（古代日本朝廷为了增加人口，就鼓励男子在夜晚主动爬进女子闺房，为提升人口事业添砖加瓦）。第二个特点是<strong>君权神授，天皇的本意是将自己塑造成神的化身</strong>，再以此掌控人间的实权。结果搞得不伦不类，天皇成直接下凡的天帝，二战结束还要颁布一个《人间宣言》，也是离谱。</p>
 <h2 id="待读参考">待读参考</h2>
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diff --git "a/\344\270\234\344\272\232\346\234\252\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\234\211\351\255\205\345\212\233\347\232\204\347\224\237\346\264\273\346\226\271\345\274\217.html" "b/\344\270\234\344\272\232\346\234\252\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\234\211\351\255\205\345\212\233\347\232\204\347\224\237\346\264\273\346\226\271\345\274\217.html"
index fb0bdaace0..b711d0ac13 100644
--- "a/\344\270\234\344\272\232\346\234\252\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\234\211\351\255\205\345\212\233\347\232\204\347\224\237\346\264\273\346\226\271\345\274\217.html"
+++ "b/\344\270\234\344\272\232\346\234\252\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\234\211\351\255\205\345\212\233\347\232\204\347\224\237\346\264\273\346\226\271\345\274\217.html"
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ <h3 id="结语">结语</h3>
 <p>成都连续 15 年蝉联中国最具幸福感城市榜首，人文气息与市井气息交织，一半诗意一半烟火，一直是这座城市独特的生活美学。</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>生活方式有其魅力，同在国内，成都，长沙，三亚，大理丽江就对游客有吸引力，同在欧洲，巴黎吸引力就更强。</p>
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diff --git "a/\344\270\234\344\272\232\350\213\261\350\257\255\345\217\221\351\237\263\345\267\256\345\274\202.html" "b/\344\270\234\344\272\232\350\213\261\350\257\255\345\217\221\351\237\263\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
index 18b8181c09..2c275ed5a7 100644
--- "a/\344\270\234\344\272\232\350\213\261\350\257\255\345\217\221\351\237\263\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
+++ "b/\344\270\234\344\272\232\350\213\261\350\257\255\345\217\221\351\237\263\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
@@ -268,7 +268,7 @@ <h2 id="英文与拉丁文的发音差异">英文与拉丁文的发音差异</h2
 <p><u>现代英语对拉丁语的读音有两套规则，在读拉丁语名言或短语时，通常用古典语音</u>，</p>
 <p><u>但在读人名地名时，还是用传统的英语读音</u>，个中原因还是因为使用频率太高</p>
 </blockquote>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一则笑话开头：</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">原因简究</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E5%B8%B8%E5%A4%96%E6%9D%A5%E8%AF%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%B9%B2%E6%89%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">日常外来词的干扰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E9%9F%B3%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%8C%B9%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">发音体系的不匹配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B%E9%9F%A9%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看韩语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E8%AF%AD%E6%9B%B4%E5%8A%A0%E5%A4%B8%E5%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">日语更加夸张</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E8%AF%9D%E4%B9%9F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%97%A0%E7%BC%BA%E6%86%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通话也不是无缺憾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%8F%E7%9D%80%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%8C%E5%B1%88%E6%8A%98%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%8C%E5%AD%A4%E7%AB%8B%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">黏着语，屈折语，孤立语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%9C%89%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%9B%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%EF%BC%9F%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E6%B5%85%E8%96%84%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95%E5%A6%82%E4%B8%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何有这些差别？个人浅薄的看法如下</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼聊一下我国的外语翻译</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E5%B8%B8%E7%BF%BB%E8%AF%91%E7%9A%84%E5%87%86%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通常翻译的准则</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E4%B8%8E%E6%8B%89%E4%B8%81%E6%96%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E9%9F%B3%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">英文与拉丁文的发音差异</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一则笑话开头：</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">原因简究</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E5%B8%B8%E5%A4%96%E6%9D%A5%E8%AF%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%B9%B2%E6%89%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">日常外来词的干扰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E9%9F%B3%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%8C%B9%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">发音体系的不匹配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B%E9%9F%A9%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看韩语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E8%AF%AD%E6%9B%B4%E5%8A%A0%E5%A4%B8%E5%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">日语更加夸张</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E8%AF%9D%E4%B9%9F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%97%A0%E7%BC%BA%E6%86%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通话也不是无缺憾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%8F%E7%9D%80%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%8C%E5%B1%88%E6%8A%98%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%8C%E5%AD%A4%E7%AB%8B%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">黏着语，屈折语，孤立语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%9C%89%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%9B%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%EF%BC%9F%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E6%B5%85%E8%96%84%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95%E5%A6%82%E4%B8%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何有这些差别？个人浅薄的看法如下</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼聊一下我国的外语翻译</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E5%B8%B8%E7%BF%BB%E8%AF%91%E7%9A%84%E5%87%86%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通常翻译的准则</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E4%B8%8E%E6%8B%89%E4%B8%81%E6%96%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E9%9F%B3%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">英文与拉丁文的发音差异</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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index 93fb174975..c759c4cdf2 100644
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@@ -261,7 +261,7 @@ <h3 id="补充的解读">补充的解读</h3>
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href="#%E5%90%84%E8%AF%B4%E5%90%84%E8%AF%9D%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%93%E8%87%B3%E7%AE%80"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">各说各话，大道至简</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A7%8B%E4%BD%9C%E4%BF%91%E8%80%85%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E8%AE%B2%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">始作俑者怎么讲中台</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AA%E9%98%B3%E5%BA%95%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E6%96%B0%E9%B2%9C%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">太阳底下没有新鲜事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">具体的好处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span 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class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中台战略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E6%A1%86%E6%9E%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中台能力框架</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%9B%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大公司下的蛋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%81%AB%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么火起来的？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E8%AF%B4%E5%90%84%E8%AF%9D%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%93%E8%87%B3%E7%AE%80"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">各说各话，大道至简</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A7%8B%E4%BD%9C%E4%BF%91%E8%80%85%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E8%AE%B2%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">始作俑者怎么讲中台</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AA%E9%98%B3%E5%BA%95%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E6%96%B0%E9%B2%9C%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">太阳底下没有新鲜事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">具体的好处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\233\275\346\260\221\346\200\247\346\274\224\345\217\230\345\216\206\347\250\213\344\271\246\346\221\230.html" "b/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\233\275\346\260\221\346\200\247\346\274\224\345\217\230\345\216\206\347\250\213\344\271\246\346\221\230.html"
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--- "a/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\233\275\346\260\221\346\200\247\346\274\224\345\217\230\345\216\206\347\250\213\344\271\246\346\221\230.html"
+++ "b/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\233\275\346\260\221\346\200\247\346\274\224\345\217\230\345\216\206\347\250\213\344\271\246\346\221\230.html"
@@ -370,7 +370,7 @@ <h3 id="来段结语">来段结语</h3>
 <blockquote>
 <p><em><u>《乌合之众》中也强调了<font color="dodgerblue">民族性的差异，漫长的时间造就了不同的作品。遗传的心理结构在人们感觉和思维方式上造成巨大的差别</font>，<font color="tomato">民族是在历史中形成的有机体，只能通过缓慢的世代累积的过程发生变化</font>，而教育是我们在一定层度上影响国民心智的唯一手段</u></em>。</p>
 </blockquote>
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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E6%B0%91%E6%80%A7%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98%E6%A6%82%E8%BF%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">国民性演变概述</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%A5%E7%A7%8B%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">春秋时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%B5%E6%97%8F%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E6%95%A3%E8%90%BD%E6%B0%91%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">贵族精神及其散落民间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BC%E5%B4%A9%E4%B9%90%E5%9D%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%A3%AB%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%90%8C%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">礼崩乐坏与士文化萌生</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E9%A3%8E%E5%8F%8A%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">民风及文化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%89%E9%9B%84%E7%AB%9E%E9%95%BF%EF%BC%8C%E5%87%A0%E4%B9%8E%E9%83%BD%E5%BC%BA%E6%82%8D%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">争雄竞长，几乎都强悍好战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E7%9C%9F%E7%83%82%E6%BC%AB%E5%BF%83%E6%97%A0%E6%9D%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">天真烂漫心无杂念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%A0%E5%AE%A2%E7%81%BF%E7%83%82"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">侠客灿烂</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%93%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E8%BF%88%E8%BF%9B%E5%B8%9D%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">当历史迈进帝制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93%E8%B4%B5%E6%97%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">皇帝终结贵族</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A5%9A%E6%B1%89%E4%B9%8B%E4%BA%89%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B3%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">楚汉之争，平民上台</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B3%E6%9C%B4%E6%9C%AA%E6%B3%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%B1%89%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">淳朴未泯的汉人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9C%B8%E7%8E%8B%E9%81%93%E6%9D%82%E4%B9%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">霸王道杂之</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E5%88%86%E5%AD%90%E6%AE%8B%E5%AD%98%E6%98%A5%E7%A7%8B%E4%B9%8B%E9%A3%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">知识分子残存春秋之风</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%9A%E6%AD%A6%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">尚武率直</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏晋风流</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%96%E4%B8%96%E6%97%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">乱世世族</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%83%E5%A8%81%E5%B4%A9%E6%BA%83%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%A7%E6%83%85%E9%87%8A%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">权威崩溃，性情释放</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%94%90%E7%9A%84%E9%9B%84%E5%81%A5%E9%98%B3%E5%85%89"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">大唐的雄健阳光</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E6%9D%83%E7%A9%BA%E5%89%8D%E7%BB%9D%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女权空前绝后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%A1%E6%B0%94%E6%81%B0%E5%88%B0%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">胡气恰到好处</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%BC%B1%E4%B9%8B%E5%AE%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">文弱之宋</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%90%E5%AE%8B%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94-%E7%83%AD%E7%83%88vs%E5%86%85%E6%95%9B"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">唐宋对比(热烈vs内敛)</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%96%E5%90%8E%E9%81%97%E7%97%87%EF%BC%8C%E9%87%8D%E6%96%87%E8%BD%BB%E6%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">乱世后遗症，重文轻武</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A2%E5%A4%B1%E8%87%AA%E4%BF%A1%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E6%89%AD%E6%9B%B2"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">丢失自信，心理扭曲</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9B%AE%E9%9C%B8%E4%B9%8B%E5%85%83"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">蛮霸之元</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%A2%AB%E5%BC%83"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化被弃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E8%8B%B1%E6%8D%9F%E8%80%97"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">精英损耗</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B7%E8%9B%8B%E4%B9%8B%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">混蛋之明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%B7%E7%B1%8D%E7%AE%A1%E5%88%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%AB%E8%82%A1%E8%AF%9E%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">户籍管制，八股诞生</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%8A%A1%E6%B2%BB%E5%9B%BD%EF%BC%8C%E6%B5%81%E6%B0%93%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">特务治国，流氓社会</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%9D%E5%88%B6%E7%BB%88%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">帝制终点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%E6%9D%A5%E4%B8%B4"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">近代来临</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E8%89%AF%E8%AE%BA%E8%B0%83"><span class="toc-number">11.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">改良论调</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">11.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">革命派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E8%B7%B5%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD"><span class="toc-number">11.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">实践教训</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E6%AE%B5%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E6%B0%91%E6%80%A7%E6%BC%94%E5%8F%98%E6%A6%82%E8%BF%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">国民性演变概述</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%A5%E7%A7%8B%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">春秋时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%B5%E6%97%8F%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E6%95%A3%E8%90%BD%E6%B0%91%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">贵族精神及其散落民间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BC%E5%B4%A9%E4%B9%90%E5%9D%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%A3%AB%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%90%8C%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">礼崩乐坏与士文化萌生</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E9%A3%8E%E5%8F%8A%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">民风及文化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%89%E9%9B%84%E7%AB%9E%E9%95%BF%EF%BC%8C%E5%87%A0%E4%B9%8E%E9%83%BD%E5%BC%BA%E6%82%8D%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">争雄竞长，几乎都强悍好战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E7%9C%9F%E7%83%82%E6%BC%AB%E5%BF%83%E6%97%A0%E6%9D%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">天真烂漫心无杂念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%A0%E5%AE%A2%E7%81%BF%E7%83%82"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">侠客灿烂</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%93%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E8%BF%88%E8%BF%9B%E5%B8%9D%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">当历史迈进帝制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93%E8%B4%B5%E6%97%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">皇帝终结贵族</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A5%9A%E6%B1%89%E4%B9%8B%E4%BA%89%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B3%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">楚汉之争，平民上台</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B3%E6%9C%B4%E6%9C%AA%E6%B3%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%B1%89%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">淳朴未泯的汉人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9C%B8%E7%8E%8B%E9%81%93%E6%9D%82%E4%B9%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">霸王道杂之</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E5%88%86%E5%AD%90%E6%AE%8B%E5%AD%98%E6%98%A5%E7%A7%8B%E4%B9%8B%E9%A3%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">知识分子残存春秋之风</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%9A%E6%AD%A6%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">尚武率直</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏晋风流</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%96%E4%B8%96%E6%97%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">乱世世族</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%83%E5%A8%81%E5%B4%A9%E6%BA%83%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%A7%E6%83%85%E9%87%8A%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">权威崩溃，性情释放</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%94%90%E7%9A%84%E9%9B%84%E5%81%A5%E9%98%B3%E5%85%89"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">大唐的雄健阳光</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E6%9D%83%E7%A9%BA%E5%89%8D%E7%BB%9D%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女权空前绝后</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%A1%E6%B0%94%E6%81%B0%E5%88%B0%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">胡气恰到好处</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%BC%B1%E4%B9%8B%E5%AE%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">文弱之宋</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%90%E5%AE%8B%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94-%E7%83%AD%E7%83%88vs%E5%86%85%E6%95%9B"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">唐宋对比(热烈vs内敛)</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%96%E5%90%8E%E9%81%97%E7%97%87%EF%BC%8C%E9%87%8D%E6%96%87%E8%BD%BB%E6%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">乱世后遗症，重文轻武</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A2%E5%A4%B1%E8%87%AA%E4%BF%A1%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E6%89%AD%E6%9B%B2"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">丢失自信，心理扭曲</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9B%AE%E9%9C%B8%E4%B9%8B%E5%85%83"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">蛮霸之元</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%A2%AB%E5%BC%83"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化被弃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E8%8B%B1%E6%8D%9F%E8%80%97"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">精英损耗</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B7%E8%9B%8B%E4%B9%8B%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">混蛋之明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%B7%E7%B1%8D%E7%AE%A1%E5%88%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%AB%E8%82%A1%E8%AF%9E%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">户籍管制，八股诞生</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%8A%A1%E6%B2%BB%E5%9B%BD%EF%BC%8C%E6%B5%81%E6%B0%93%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">特务治国，流氓社会</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%9D%E5%88%B6%E7%BB%88%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">帝制终点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%E6%9D%A5%E4%B8%B4"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">近代来临</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E8%89%AF%E8%AE%BA%E8%B0%83"><span class="toc-number">11.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">改良论调</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">11.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">革命派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E8%B7%B5%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD"><span class="toc-number">11.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">实践教训</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E6%AE%B5%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span 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diff --git "a/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\260\261\344\270\232\344\272\272\347\276\244\350\260\203\346\237\245.html" "b/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\260\261\344\270\232\344\272\272\347\276\244\350\260\203\346\237\245.html"
index 5b6c1c6b27..584739974a 100644
--- "a/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\260\261\344\270\232\344\272\272\347\276\244\350\260\203\346\237\245.html"
+++ "b/\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\260\261\344\270\232\344\272\272\347\276\244\350\260\203\346\237\245.html"
@@ -436,7 +436,7 @@ <h1>未来已来</h1>
 </ol>
 <p>如果你没在产业升级的快车道上，大概率就在产业淘汰的车轮之下。作为普通人，未来的选择无非三种：自我放弃、投身三产、海外出征。</p>
 <h1>引用</h1>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动力人群</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9Avs%E9%9D%9E%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">就业vs非就业阶段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非劳动阶段人口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总分布</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">8.2亿适龄劳动人口</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%E6%80%A7%E8%B4%A8%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从三产性质看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-1-77%E4%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一产业-1.77亿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-2-11%E4%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二产业-2.11亿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-3-46%E4%BA%BF%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第三产业-3.46亿人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%81%E8%BF%90%E8%BE%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">物流运输</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息服务业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融行业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%AE%AF%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">通讯行业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化产业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%8B%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">律师</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B5%E5%AD%90%E5%95%86%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">电子商务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BE%E5%BD%A2%E5%88%86%E5%88%97"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">图形分列</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A7%93%E8%B5%84%E5%A7%93%E7%A4%BE%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从姓资姓社看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会主义群体</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E4%BE%9B%E5%85%BB%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财政供养人员</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E4%BC%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">国企</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E5%BD%B9%E5%86%9B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现役军人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BE%E4%BE%8B%E5%B1%95%E7%A4%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">图例展示</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本市场群体</span></a><ol 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动力人群</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9Avs%E9%9D%9E%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">就业vs非就业阶段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非劳动阶段人口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总分布</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">8.2亿适龄劳动人口</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%E6%80%A7%E8%B4%A8%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从三产性质看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-1-77%E4%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一产业-1.77亿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-2-11%E4%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二产业-2.11亿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-3-46%E4%BA%BF%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第三产业-3.46亿人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%81%E8%BF%90%E8%BE%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">物流运输</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息服务业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融行业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%AE%AF%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">通讯行业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化产业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%8B%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">律师</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B5%E5%AD%90%E5%95%86%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">电子商务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BE%E5%BD%A2%E5%88%86%E5%88%97"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">图形分列</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A7%93%E8%B5%84%E5%A7%93%E7%A4%BE%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从姓资姓社看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会主义群体</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E4%BE%9B%E5%85%BB%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财政供养人员</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E4%BC%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">国企</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E5%BD%B9%E5%86%9B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现役军人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BE%E4%BE%8B%E5%B1%95%E7%A4%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">图例展示</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本市场群体</span></a><ol 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@@ -265,7 +265,7 @@ <h2 id="中印有别">中印有别</h2>
 <blockquote>
 <p>印度对人的分类层次很多，贱民称为不可触摸者，认为他们是不洁净的，因为他们从事的是不洁净的职业，例如清扫，制革等等，下等是不能进入上等人的领域的，其宗教里的种姓制度明显。</p>
 </blockquote>
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class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分和在生活体现</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%98%E4%B9%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">秘书</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8F%9C%E8%82%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">菜肴</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中式风格点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E6%80%A7%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国人的基本性格</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%AB%8B%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">基本立场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AD%A6%E8%A7%89%E6%80%A7%E9%AB%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">警觉性高</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%A4%A7%E4%B8%8E%E8%87%AA%E5%8D%91"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自大与自卑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E5%9C%86%E6%BB%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期圆满</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%BC%8F%E8%89%AF%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">中式良心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%85%E8%A6%81%E4%BF%AE%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">必要修养</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%86%E9%80%9A%E5%92%8C%E5%9C%86%E6%BB%91"><span class="toc-number">2.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">圆通和圆滑</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B1%E9%99%A9%E5%8C%96%E5%AD%A6%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">危险化学反应</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%B0%E6%9C%89%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中印有别</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分和在生活体现</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%98%E4%B9%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">秘书</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8F%9C%E8%82%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">菜肴</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中式风格点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E6%80%A7%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国人的基本性格</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%AB%8B%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">基本立场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AD%A6%E8%A7%89%E6%80%A7%E9%AB%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">警觉性高</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%A4%A7%E4%B8%8E%E8%87%AA%E5%8D%91"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自大与自卑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E5%9C%86%E6%BB%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期圆满</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%BC%8F%E8%89%AF%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">中式良心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%85%E8%A6%81%E4%BF%AE%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">必要修养</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%86%E9%80%9A%E5%92%8C%E5%9C%86%E6%BB%91"><span class="toc-number">2.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">圆通和圆滑</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B1%E9%99%A9%E5%8C%96%E5%AD%A6%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">危险化学反应</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%B0%E6%9C%89%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中印有别</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\261\275\350\275\246\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\210\206\346\236\220.html" "b/\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\261\275\350\275\246\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\210\206\346\236\220.html"
index 472d7fc5ff..08362e3bd7 100644
--- "a/\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\261\275\350\275\246\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\210\206\346\236\220.html"
+++ "b/\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\261\275\350\275\246\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\210\206\346\236\220.html"
@@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ <h2 id="产业的重要性">产业的重要性</h2>
 <p><font size=5>有车对中国经济多重要呢？</font>中国的吃、喝、穿、用商品零售总额全部加在一起 4.35 万亿，而汽车类零售总额则高达 4.86 万亿，<font color="dodgerblue">全国人民用来<u>购买汽车和零部件的钱</u>比全国人民的<u>吃喝穿用总花费还要高</u>，汽车对中国经济的带动效应可想而知</font>。</p>
 <h2 id="按需消费">按需消费</h2>
 <p><font size=5>汽车就像手表</font>，对普通人而言不过是个工具，对于有社交需求的人而言，就是行走的名片，象征着实力和身份，马斯克赚到钱也买了迈凯伦，<u>购车算是人类的一种孔雀开屏行为</u>。</p>
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class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E4%BC%9A%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数字会说话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E8%BD%A6%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有车家庭比例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#23-%E5%B9%B4%E8%B4%AD%E8%BD%A6%E9%87%8F%E6%8E%92%E5%90%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">23 年购车量排名</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%A6%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">车价</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%A6%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">车型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B5%E8%90%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">阵营</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B1%AA%E8%BD%A6%E5%94%AE%E5%BE%80%E5%93%AA"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">豪车售往哪</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%89%E9%9C%80%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">按需消费</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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href="#%E9%98%B5%E8%90%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">阵营</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B1%AA%E8%BD%A6%E5%94%AE%E5%BE%80%E5%93%AA"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">豪车售往哪</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%89%E9%9C%80%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">按需消费</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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@@ -295,7 +295,7 @@ <h2 id="荣格谈中年觉醒">荣格谈中年觉醒</h2>
 <p>早年的成就和努力或许是人生的一种必要铺垫，帮你意识到什么并不能真正让你内心深处真正满足，随着年龄增长，目标和身份问题开始浮现，人到中年大脑也发生一些变化，增强情绪调节和自我意识，这些变化使得能以宽广的视角重新审视生活和应对挑战，那些曾经看似不可动摇的目标，现在也可以被重新定义。</p>
 <p>转变从来都不容易，通常伴随着不适，你需要极大的勇气，踏入未知领域，面对长期存在恐惧，放弃熟悉的安全模式。面对每一个恐惧和抛弃每一个过时的信念，都会让你更接近更真实的自己。荣格认为，中年是独特的人生转变的机会，发现并融入你一直想成为的那个人。这不是危机，而是一种觉醒，是一种超越他人期望，重新发现真实自我的独特机会。<strong>中年的觉醒是迈向个性化的过程</strong>，这是一种整合自我所有部分的旅程，包括意识、潜意识、光明和阴暗。<strong>个性化不是摧毁过去的生活，而是重新评估价值观和优先事项</strong>，或许外在的成就和成功变得不再那么重要，或许更加重要。剥离那些不再契合自己的东西，重新与内在自我建立连接的旅程。这个生命的阶段邀请你向内探索。</p>
 <p>直面阴影，深层的自我接纳。阴影是荣格哲学中最有力的核心概念之一。阴影代表了你隐藏的部分，包括未实现的梦想，你的恐惧，欲望和脆弱。年轻时我们常常忽略这些部分，以换取成功和社会的认可。真是这种对抗，你才有机会真正的成长。</p>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%84%91%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人脑能力进化的驱动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%B9%B4%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中年人的功效</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0%E5%A4%96%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基因外文化的塑造</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农业的影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%AF%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8%E2%80%93%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD%E6%9B%B4%E7%9F%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">副作用–寿命更短</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%96%BE%E7%97%85"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">更多的疾病</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF1-5%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯1.5的好处</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%B9%B4%E6%84%9F%E5%AE%98%E7%9A%84%E9%80%80%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中年感官的退化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B7%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E9%94%99%E8%A7%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">男性的错觉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E5%AE%98%E5%8D%B4%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D%E2%80%93%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E5%81%9A%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">感官却有下降–年轻人做替代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E7%BC%A9%E5%B0%8F%E2%80%93%E6%9C%AA%E5%BF%85%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E6%8D%9F%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的缩小–未必是严重损失</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E8%B6%8A%E8%BF%87%E8%B6%8A%E5%BF%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么时间越过越快</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E5%9F%BA%E5%87%86%E7%82%B9%E6%A0%A1%E6%AD%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆基准点校正</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E9%B2%9C%E6%84%9F%E7%BC%BA%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新鲜感缺失</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%B5%B0%E5%87%BA%E5%9B%B0%E5%A2%83"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何走出困境</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">中青年竞争</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%A4%AB%E4%B8%80%E5%A6%BB%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">一夫一妻制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9C%E7%BB%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%80%83%E8%99%91"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">停经的考虑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%84%91%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人脑能力进化的驱动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%B9%B4%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中年人的功效</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0%E5%A4%96%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基因外文化的塑造</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农业的影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%AF%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8%E2%80%93%E5%AF%BF%E5%91%BD%E6%9B%B4%E7%9F%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">副作用–寿命更短</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%9A%E7%9A%84%E7%96%BE%E7%97%85"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">更多的疾病</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF1-5%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯1.5的好处</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%B9%B4%E6%84%9F%E5%AE%98%E7%9A%84%E9%80%80%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中年感官的退化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B7%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E9%94%99%E8%A7%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">男性的错觉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E5%AE%98%E5%8D%B4%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D%E2%80%93%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E5%81%9A%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">感官却有下降–年轻人做替代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E7%BC%A9%E5%B0%8F%E2%80%93%E6%9C%AA%E5%BF%85%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E6%8D%9F%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的缩小–未必是严重损失</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E8%B6%8A%E8%BF%87%E8%B6%8A%E5%BF%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么时间越过越快</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E5%9F%BA%E5%87%86%E7%82%B9%E6%A0%A1%E6%AD%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆基准点校正</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E9%B2%9C%E6%84%9F%E7%BC%BA%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新鲜感缺失</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%B5%B0%E5%87%BA%E5%9B%B0%E5%A2%83"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何走出困境</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">中青年竞争</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%A4%AB%E4%B8%80%E5%A6%BB%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">一夫一妻制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9C%E7%BB%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%80%83%E8%99%91"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">停经的考虑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a 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diff --git "a/\344\270\255\351\244\220\346\212\265\345\276\241\351\245\256\351\243\237\350\245\277\345\214\226.html" "b/\344\270\255\351\244\220\346\212\265\345\276\241\351\245\256\351\243\237\350\245\277\345\214\226.html"
index 0d289e4e0f..b5c9231239 100644
--- "a/\344\270\255\351\244\220\346\212\265\345\276\241\351\245\256\351\243\237\350\245\277\345\214\226.html"
+++ "b/\344\270\255\351\244\220\346\212\265\345\276\241\351\245\256\351\243\237\350\245\277\345\214\226.html"
@@ -221,7 +221,7 @@ <h3 id="也不要夜郎自大">也不要夜郎自大</h3>
 <p>家乡味是所有人刻在骨子里的执着，中国人偏爱中餐偶尔吃上一顿西餐也行，但天天吃西餐保证你生不如死。<font color="blur">老外一样不一定适应天天正品中餐</font>。如白人更接受并热爱的是跟自己家乡味接近的食物，如拌酸奶的面条，放醋的手抓饭，炸一切加甜辣酱的组合，全球各地各有所爱。欲罢不能正是的家乡味，你我均难以免俗，你可以不理解，但尊重。</p>
 <h3 id="结语">结语</h3>
 <p>虽我们会看到快餐化食物在中国出现的范围和频率变高，但中餐的文化和底蕴是绝不可能被取代的。<strong>正餐快餐化和正餐聚餐化会同步发展</strong>，中餐店做不大或许是我们的幸运（美国的贫困性肥胖与食品工业紧密结合，戒糖比戒毒都难，肥胖人口和中国数量一样多）。筷子握住的不仅是美食，也是文化延续的密码。</p>
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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E3%80%8C%E9%A5%AD%E3%80%8D%E4%B8%80%E8%AF%8D%E7%9A%84%E6%89%A7%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">对「饭」一词的执念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%9F%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E5%A4%9C%E9%83%8E%E8%87%AA%E5%A4%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">也不要夜郎自大</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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diff --git "a/\344\270\272\344\273\200\344\271\210\345\245\263\346\200\247\346\234\211\346\260\270\344\271\205\344\271\263\346\210\277.html" "b/\344\270\272\344\273\200\344\271\210\345\245\263\346\200\247\346\234\211\346\260\270\344\271\205\344\271\263\346\210\277.html"
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+++ "b/\344\270\272\344\273\200\344\271\210\345\245\263\346\200\247\346\234\211\346\260\270\344\271\205\344\271\263\346\210\277.html"
@@ -307,7 +307,7 @@ <h2 id="如今的现状">如今的现状</h2>
 <p>所以，女人既然需要一直“带着”乳房，似乎她们中的很多人已经接受了长出一对优良的乳房带来的麻烦。</p>
 <p>同时，男人被一种并不理想的本能所束缚。他们的欲望被一对无用的充斥着脂肪的袋子所点燃。然而，男人却承担不起失去这种本能的损失。不分泌乳汁的乳房就好像核弹一样——我们需要它只是因为别人也有这种东西。</p>
 <h2 id="注释说明">注释说明</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">我相信用其他动物的乳汁（最好不要是牛奶）是有可能可以将孩子养大的，因为它们含有丰富的钠。很显然狗奶是可以的。婴儿一开始不能消化固体，因为他们的肠子还没有发育完全，而且他们不能很好地排出固体或者生成所有必需的酶。用血液来喂养婴儿是行不通的。血液中没有足够的能量。它只含有一点点葡萄糖和非常少的脂肪。<a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">吮吸导致母亲体内催产素和催乳素的释放。催产素产生贮存的乳汁；催乳素催发出更多的乳汁。吮吸的越多，产生的乳汁也越多。<a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">要出现第一次的月经，一个女孩需要积累相当于自己体重17%的脂肪。到脂肪重量达到体重的27%时，女人的生育能力仍然相对较低。在性成熟以后，如果这个指标降至22%，则会导致月经停止（Gallup 1982）<a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Tovée, Cornelissen et al. (1999, 2001) 指出人们在评判同胞的身体质量指数（Body Mass Index）的时候是非常准确的<a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">库兴氏综合症是由过多的皮质醇引起的。皮质醇是（在其他东西中）重要的激素，它含量过高最典型的原因就是药物或者肿瘤。皮质醇虽然和合成代谢类固醇（anabolic steroid，一种加速肌肉生长的药物，译者注）有关，但是它并不是导致后青春期脂肪贮存的主要激素。雌性激素才是其真正原因<a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" 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class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%98%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">题记</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E6%80%A7%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么女性有永久性乳房</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%AA%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F%E6%98%AF%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">是个问题吗？是的</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E9%95%BF%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%A3%E4%BB%B7%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生长乳房是有代价的</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B4%A0%E9%A3%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%8C%E8%82%89%E9%A3%9F%E7%9A%84%E7%94%B7%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">素食的女人，肉食的男人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E5%88%86%E5%B7%A5%E5%86%B2%E9%94%80%E4%BB%A3%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动分工冲销代价</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BD%E7%9A%84%E7%BE%BD%E6%AF%9B%EF%BC%8C%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">美丽的羽毛，美丽的乳房？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%84%B6%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E8%A7%84%E5%88%92"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不自然的设计规划</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A3%85%E9%A5%B0%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8-%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%A7%E8%B6%8A%E5%A5%BD%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">装饰作用-越大越好吗？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E6%84%9F%E5%AF%B9%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">性感对吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%8C%E5%AF%B9%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">敌对理论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E9%9A%9C%E7%A2%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">大障碍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">女人是特殊的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E7%A7%98%E5%AF%86%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">女人是秘密的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B9%E4%BB%AC%E6%98%AF%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%81%9A%E5%88%B0%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">她们是怎么做到的？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">重大的变革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%9C%E7%A2%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后的障碍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AA%E4%BA%A7%E5%A6%87%E5%8A%A0%E5%85%A5%E5%85%B6%E4%B8%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.12.</span> <span class="toc-text">未产妇加入其中</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BB%8A%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如今的现状</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E9%87%8A%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">注释说明</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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+<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">我相信用其他动物的乳汁（最好不要是牛奶）是有可能可以将孩子养大的，因为它们含有丰富的钠。很显然狗奶是可以的。婴儿一开始不能消化固体，因为他们的肠子还没有发育完全，而且他们不能很好地排出固体或者生成所有必需的酶。用血液来喂养婴儿是行不通的。血液中没有足够的能量。它只含有一点点葡萄糖和非常少的脂肪。<a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">吮吸导致母亲体内催产素和催乳素的释放。催产素产生贮存的乳汁；催乳素催发出更多的乳汁。吮吸的越多，产生的乳汁也越多。<a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">要出现第一次的月经，一个女孩需要积累相当于自己体重17%的脂肪。到脂肪重量达到体重的27%时，女人的生育能力仍然相对较低。在性成熟以后，如果这个指标降至22%，则会导致月经停止（Gallup 1982）<a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Tovée, Cornelissen et al. (1999, 2001) 指出人们在评判同胞的身体质量指数（Body Mass Index）的时候是非常准确的<a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">库兴氏综合症是由过多的皮质醇引起的。皮质醇是（在其他东西中）重要的激素，它含量过高最典型的原因就是药物或者肿瘤。皮质醇虽然和合成代谢类固醇（anabolic steroid，一种加速肌肉生长的药物，译者注）有关，但是它并不是导致后青春期脂肪贮存的主要激素。雌性激素才是其真正原因<a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" 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class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%98%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">题记</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E6%9C%89%E6%B0%B8%E4%B9%85%E6%80%A7%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么女性有永久性乳房</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%AA%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F%E6%98%AF%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">是个问题吗？是的</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E9%95%BF%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%A3%E4%BB%B7%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生长乳房是有代价的</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B4%A0%E9%A3%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%8C%E8%82%89%E9%A3%9F%E7%9A%84%E7%94%B7%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">素食的女人，肉食的男人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E5%88%86%E5%B7%A5%E5%86%B2%E9%94%80%E4%BB%A3%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动分工冲销代价</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BD%E7%9A%84%E7%BE%BD%E6%AF%9B%EF%BC%8C%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%B9%B3%E6%88%BF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">美丽的羽毛，美丽的乳房？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%84%B6%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E8%A7%84%E5%88%92"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不自然的设计规划</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A3%85%E9%A5%B0%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8-%E8%B6%8A%E5%A4%A7%E8%B6%8A%E5%A5%BD%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">装饰作用-越大越好吗？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E6%84%9F%E5%AF%B9%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">性感对吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%8C%E5%AF%B9%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">敌对理论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E9%9A%9C%E7%A2%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">大障碍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">女人是特殊的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E7%A7%98%E5%AF%86%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">女人是秘密的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B9%E4%BB%AC%E6%98%AF%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%81%9A%E5%88%B0%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">她们是怎么做到的？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">重大的变革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%9C%E7%A2%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后的障碍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AA%E4%BA%A7%E5%A6%87%E5%8A%A0%E5%85%A5%E5%85%B6%E4%B8%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.12.</span> <span class="toc-text">未产妇加入其中</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BB%8A%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如今的现状</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E9%87%8A%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">注释说明</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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@@ -263,7 +263,7 @@ <h3 id="同质性群体">同质性群体</h3>
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 <p>选民群体，<strong>工人农民很少会选出自己的同行来代表自己，原因在于这种人在他们中间没有威望</strong>。<u>能取代声望的只有财富，才能天赋都不是成功的主要因素</u>。当前的财富崇拜也是一种声望崇拜，社会引导经济（财富）决定论，财富者声望最高。<strong>实质上声望背后绑定的是成功</strong>，成功的支撑是多维度的，一旦失去成功这一基础，声望便会在很短的时间内消失。</p>
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href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%8B%B1%E7%BE%8E%E5%AE%AA%E6%94%BF%E6%BB%B4%E7%81%8C%E5%BC%8F%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E5%90%B9%E6%8D%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对英美宪政滴灌式变化的吹捧</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0%E7%9C%9F%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">营造真理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%86%E8%A2%96%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">领袖的行为方式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8C%E8%B4%A8%E6%80%A7%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span 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class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">九型介绍</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#1-%E7%90%86%E6%83%B3%E5%B4%87%E9%AB%98%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">1. 理想崇高者（完美型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2-%E5%8F%A4%E9%81%93%E7%83%AD%E8%82%A0%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E5%8A%A9%E4%BA%BA%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">2. 古道热肠者（助人型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#3-%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E8%BF%BD%E6%B1%82%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8B%E4%B8%9A%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">3. 成功追求者（事业型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#4-%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">4. 个人风格者（自我型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#5-%E5%8D%9A%E5%AD%A6%E5%A4%9A%E9%97%BB%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E7%90%86%E6%99%BA%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">5. 博学多闻者（理智型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#6-%E8%B0%A8%E6%85%8E%E5%BF%A0%E8%AF%9A%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E7%96%91%E6%83%91%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">6. 谨慎忠诚者（疑惑型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#7-%E5%8B%87%E4%BA%8E%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E6%B4%BB%E8%B7%83%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">7. 勇于创新者（活跃型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#8-%E5%A4%A9%E7%94%9F%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E9%A2%86%E8%A2%96%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">8. 天生领导者（领袖型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#9-%E5%90%91%E5%BE%80%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">9. 向往和平者（和平型）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">个别易混淆的差别说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2%E5%9E%8B%E5%8A%A9%E4%BA%BAvs-9%E5%9E%8B%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2型助人vs 9型和平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#5%E5%9E%8B%E7%90%86%E6%99%BAvs-6%E5%9E%8B%E7%96%91%E6%83%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">5型理智vs 6型疑惑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">三大性格类组</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">心理三大结构</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AC%E8%83%BD%E7%BB%84%E3%80%908-9-1%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">本能组【8.9.1】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E6%84%9F%E7%BB%84%E3%80%902-3-4%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情感组【2.3.4】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%E7%BB%84%E3%80%905-6-7%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">思考组【5.6.7】</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪管理机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E3%80%901-3-5%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">理性主义【1.3.5】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%90%E8%A7%82%E6%B4%BE%E3%80%902-7-9%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">乐观派【2.7.9】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E5%88%86%E5%AD%90%E3%80%904-6-8%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪分子【4.6.8】</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B%E6%BB%A1%E8%B6%B3%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">欲望满足机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%BA%E5%88%B6%E7%BB%84%E3%80%903-7-8%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">强制组【3.7.8】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A3%E4%BB%BB%E7%BB%84%E3%80%901-2-6%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">责任组【1.2.6】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%BB%E7%BE%A4%E7%BB%84%E3%80%904-5-9%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">离群组【4.5.9】</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%9D%E5%9E%8B%E5%8F%98%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">九型变数</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">个人分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%94%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第五型人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">健康转换</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E5%85%AD%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第六型人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2-2"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">健康转换</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B9%9D%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第九型人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">转换</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget 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class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">九型介绍</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#1-%E7%90%86%E6%83%B3%E5%B4%87%E9%AB%98%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">1. 理想崇高者（完美型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2-%E5%8F%A4%E9%81%93%E7%83%AD%E8%82%A0%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E5%8A%A9%E4%BA%BA%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">2. 古道热肠者（助人型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#3-%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E8%BF%BD%E6%B1%82%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8B%E4%B8%9A%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">3. 成功追求者（事业型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#4-%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">4. 个人风格者（自我型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#5-%E5%8D%9A%E5%AD%A6%E5%A4%9A%E9%97%BB%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E7%90%86%E6%99%BA%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">5. 博学多闻者（理智型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#6-%E8%B0%A8%E6%85%8E%E5%BF%A0%E8%AF%9A%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E7%96%91%E6%83%91%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">6. 谨慎忠诚者（疑惑型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#7-%E5%8B%87%E4%BA%8E%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E6%B4%BB%E8%B7%83%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">7. 勇于创新者（活跃型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#8-%E5%A4%A9%E7%94%9F%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E9%A2%86%E8%A2%96%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">8. 天生领导者（领袖型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#9-%E5%90%91%E5%BE%80%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3%E8%80%85%EF%BC%88%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">9. 向往和平者（和平型）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">个别易混淆的差别说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2%E5%9E%8B%E5%8A%A9%E4%BA%BAvs-9%E5%9E%8B%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2型助人vs 9型和平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#5%E5%9E%8B%E7%90%86%E6%99%BAvs-6%E5%9E%8B%E7%96%91%E6%83%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">5型理智vs 6型疑惑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">三大性格类组</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">心理三大结构</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AC%E8%83%BD%E7%BB%84%E3%80%908-9-1%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">本能组【8.9.1】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E6%84%9F%E7%BB%84%E3%80%902-3-4%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情感组【2.3.4】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%E7%BB%84%E3%80%905-6-7%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">思考组【5.6.7】</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪管理机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E3%80%901-3-5%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">理性主义【1.3.5】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%90%E8%A7%82%E6%B4%BE%E3%80%902-7-9%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">乐观派【2.7.9】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E5%88%86%E5%AD%90%E3%80%904-6-8%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪分子【4.6.8】</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B%E6%BB%A1%E8%B6%B3%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">欲望满足机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%BA%E5%88%B6%E7%BB%84%E3%80%903-7-8%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">强制组【3.7.8】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A3%E4%BB%BB%E7%BB%84%E3%80%901-2-6%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">责任组【1.2.6】</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%BB%E7%BE%A4%E7%BB%84%E3%80%904-5-9%E3%80%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">离群组【4.5.9】</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%9D%E5%9E%8B%E5%8F%98%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">九型变数</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">个人分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%94%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第五型人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">健康转换</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E5%85%AD%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第六型人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2-2"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">健康转换</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B9%9D%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第九型人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">转换</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget 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diff --git "a/\344\271\246\345\220\214\346\226\207\345\255\227\344\275\223\347\220\206\350\247\243.html" "b/\344\271\246\345\220\214\346\226\207\345\255\227\344\275\223\347\220\206\350\247\243.html"
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@@ -226,7 +226,7 @@ <h3 id="引用">引用</h3>
 <blockquote>
 <p>强烈推荐看原作的内容，2w 多字，详实多了</p>
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diff --git "a/\344\272\221\345\216\237\347\224\237\345\237\272\345\272\247\344\270\213\347\232\204\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html" "b/\344\272\221\345\216\237\347\224\237\345\237\272\345\272\247\344\270\213\347\232\204\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html"
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+++ "b/\344\272\221\345\216\237\347\224\237\345\237\272\345\272\247\344\270\213\347\232\204\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html"
@@ -345,7 +345,7 @@ <h5 id="以腾讯云的测试结果举例">以腾讯云的测试结果举例</h5
 </tbody>
 </table>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Juicedata，<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://juicefs.com/zh-cn/blog/solutions/hadoop-to-cloud-native-separation-of-compute-and-storage-for-big-data-platform">从 Hadoop 到云原生， 大数据平台如何做存算分离</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">TencentCloud，<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1905787">听说你想把对象存储当 HDFS 用，我们这里有个方案</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Meta， <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://vimeo.com/274419095">Taking Advantage of a Disaggregated Storage and Compute Architecture</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/LinkTime_Cloud/article/details/127075291">Hadoop势微，云原生上位</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">阿里技术, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://xie.infoq.cn/article/de0971c840628b7b467a110dc">大数据上云存算分离演进思考与实践</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright-title"><span 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评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E8%80%A6%E5%90%88%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%9B%9E%E9%A1%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">存算耦合架构回顾</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hadoop%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E5%85%83%E8%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hadoop的三元老</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#HDFS%E8%87%AA%E8%BA%AB%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%84%E7%BA%A6%E6%9D%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">HDFS自身架构的约束</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hadoop%E7%BB%84%E4%BB%B6%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%A2%8E%E7%89%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hadoop组件生态碎片化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%B1%80%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">硬件的局限</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E6%82%84%E6%82%84%E8%B5%B7%E4%BA%86%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">存算分离悄悄起了变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%88%9D%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%9D%E8%AF%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">最初的尝试</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%82%E5%95%86%E5%8A%A9%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">云厂商助力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">云原生时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源调度的统一</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储的基座</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#HDFS%E4%B8%8A%E4%BA%91%E7%A2%B0%E5%88%B0%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">HDFS上云碰到的矛盾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E5%87%BA%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储出位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9%EF%BC%88%E4%BB%A5JuiceFs%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼容（以JuiceFs举例）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%BC%B1%E9%A1%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储的原生弱项</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%85%83%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储的元数据加速</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5%E8%85%BE%E8%AE%AF%E4%BA%91%E7%9A%84%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以腾讯云的测试结果举例</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E8%80%A6%E5%90%88%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%9B%9E%E9%A1%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">存算耦合架构回顾</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hadoop%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E5%85%83%E8%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hadoop的三元老</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#HDFS%E8%87%AA%E8%BA%AB%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%84%E7%BA%A6%E6%9D%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">HDFS自身架构的约束</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hadoop%E7%BB%84%E4%BB%B6%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%A2%8E%E7%89%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hadoop组件生态碎片化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%B1%80%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">硬件的局限</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E6%82%84%E6%82%84%E8%B5%B7%E4%BA%86%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">存算分离悄悄起了变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%88%9D%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%9D%E8%AF%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">最初的尝试</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%82%E5%95%86%E5%8A%A9%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">云厂商助力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">云原生时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源调度的统一</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E5%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储的基座</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#HDFS%E4%B8%8A%E4%BA%91%E7%A2%B0%E5%88%B0%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">HDFS上云碰到的矛盾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E5%87%BA%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储出位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9%EF%BC%88%E4%BB%A5JuiceFs%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼容（以JuiceFs举例）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E5%BC%B1%E9%A1%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储的原生弱项</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%85%83%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象存储的元数据加速</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5%E8%85%BE%E8%AE%AF%E4%BA%91%E7%9A%84%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以腾讯云的测试结果举例</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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@@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ <h3 id="保持联系比创建朋友重要">保持联系比创建朋友重要</h3
 <h3 id="互联网时代大分而不是大同">互联网时代大分而不是大同</h3>
 <p>因互联网时代引起的”大分“和年轻人总是不喜欢跟老产品老人们混在一起（老产品也感知不到年轻人的口味），使得<font color="dodgerblue"><strong>认识朋友的需求永远极其庞大，“嗷嗷待哺”</strong></font>，站方只要提供一个合适的产品，就能快速发展。但拉到人群之后，你会继续面临保持联系的基石问题，如何把自己的平台变成一个重复访问的用户寄居地，哦，想起信噪比，听起来头大又那么牛逼！</p>
 <p><u>我说的都是错的！</u></p>
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diff --git "a/\344\272\224\351\230\266\346\256\265\350\201\214\344\270\232\346\250\241\345\236\213.html" "b/\344\272\224\351\230\266\346\256\265\350\201\214\344\270\232\346\250\241\345\236\213.html"
index 0c5a4ef8ab..5abf3ac4c2 100644
--- "a/\344\272\224\351\230\266\346\256\265\350\201\214\344\270\232\346\250\241\345\236\213.html"
+++ "b/\344\272\224\351\230\266\346\256\265\350\201\214\344\270\232\346\250\241\345\236\213.html"
@@ -276,7 +276,7 @@ <h2 id="价值主张的机会矩阵">价值主张的机会矩阵</h2>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 <p>问题方向不同，致使解决问题所提供的价值主张有所区分。细分带来不同的机会，商业上更是如此。</p>
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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%94%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">五阶段职业模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B51%EF%BC%9A%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段1：测试你的训练成果</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B52%EF%BC%9A%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%93%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段2：发展你的专长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B53%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%93%E9%95%BF%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段3：在你的专长领域成为领导者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B54%EF%BC%9A%E5%BC%95%E9%A2%86%E6%9B%B4%E5%8A%A0%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E6%88%96%E8%B6%85%E5%87%BA%E4%BD%A0%E4%B8%93%E9%95%BF%E8%8C%83%E5%9B%B4%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段4：引领更加复杂的环境或超出你专长范围的环境</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B55%EF%BC%9A%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%BA%A6%E6%9B%B4%E9%AB%98%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E6%88%96%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段5：管理复杂度更高的环境或重新开始</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%98%E8%BA%AB%E5%AE%9A%E4%BD%8D%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E7%9A%84%E6%8F%90%E9%97%AE%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%94%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">五阶段职业模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B51%EF%BC%9A%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段1：测试你的训练成果</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B52%EF%BC%9A%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%93%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段2：发展你的专长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B53%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%93%E9%95%BF%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段3：在你的专长领域成为领导者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B54%EF%BC%9A%E5%BC%95%E9%A2%86%E6%9B%B4%E5%8A%A0%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E6%88%96%E8%B6%85%E5%87%BA%E4%BD%A0%E4%B8%93%E9%95%BF%E8%8C%83%E5%9B%B4%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段4：引领更加复杂的环境或超出你专长范围的环境</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B55%EF%BC%9A%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%BA%A6%E6%9B%B4%E9%AB%98%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E6%88%96%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段5：管理复杂度更高的环境或重新开始</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%98%E8%BA%AB%E5%AE%9A%E4%BD%8D%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E7%9A%84%E6%8F%90%E9%97%AE%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/\344\272\232\344\274\257\346\213\211\347\275\225\350\257\270\346\225\231\347\232\204\345\267\256\345\274\202.html" "b/\344\272\232\344\274\257\346\213\211\347\275\225\350\257\270\346\225\231\347\232\204\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
index ee3dfaed70..5b8e61460c 100644
--- "a/\344\272\232\344\274\257\346\213\211\347\275\225\350\257\270\346\225\231\347\232\204\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
+++ "b/\344\272\232\344\274\257\346\213\211\347\275\225\350\257\270\346\225\231\347\232\204\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
@@ -397,7 +397,7 @@ <h1>宗教一字师</h1>
 <p>三清只需泥土身，佛祖却要黄金渡，乱世佛门不问事，老君背剑救苍生</p>
 </blockquote>
 <h1>参考</h1>
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href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚伯拉罕诸教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E5%85%B8%E6%88%90%E4%B9%A6%E7%9A%84%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%92%8C%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">经典成书的时间和过程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%A4%E5%85%B0%E7%BB%8F%E5%9C%A3%E7%BB%8F%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">古兰经圣经异同</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E6%97%A8%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主旨概念异同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E6%9C%AC%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">文本风格差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E4%BB%B0%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E6%80%BB%E4%BD%93%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">信仰体系总体特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%AD%BB%E4%BA%A1%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对死亡的看法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%96%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人间世认识差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E5%AE%B6%E6%95%99%E4%B9%89%E5%A4%A7%E6%84%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">两家教义大意</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E7%9D%A3%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基督教</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%8A%E6%96%AF%E5%85%B0%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">伊斯兰教</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些严重的观念冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E5%AD%90%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%BB%E4%BB%86"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">父子与主仆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%91%E8%B5%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">救赎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B1%E4%B8%8E%E6%80%9C%E6%82%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">爱与怜悯</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">东西方争与不争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%93%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">道教的特殊</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%93%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">道家的精神状态</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国人信自己不靠神拯救</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩展好奇下</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F%E4%B8%8E%E6%95%99%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大食与教派</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E8%A1%A3%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">白衣大食：</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%91%E8%A1%A3%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黑衣大食</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%BF%E8%A1%A3%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">绿衣大食</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E7%A5%9E%E6%95%99%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">是一神教吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%9E%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E5%A5%97%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">其实是一套哲学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%94%E8%8D%A4%E4%B8%89%E5%8E%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为五荤三厌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%95%99%E7%A6%81%E6%AC%B2%E4%B8%8E%E9%85%92%E8%82%89%E7%A9%BF%E8%82%A0%E8%BF%87"><span class="toc-number">4.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛教禁欲与酒肉穿肠过</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何要善良</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教一字师</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚伯拉罕诸教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E5%85%B8%E6%88%90%E4%B9%A6%E7%9A%84%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%92%8C%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">经典成书的时间和过程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%A4%E5%85%B0%E7%BB%8F%E5%9C%A3%E7%BB%8F%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">古兰经圣经异同</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E6%97%A8%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主旨概念异同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E6%9C%AC%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">文本风格差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E4%BB%B0%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E6%80%BB%E4%BD%93%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">信仰体系总体特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%AD%BB%E4%BA%A1%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对死亡的看法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%96%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人间世认识差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E5%AE%B6%E6%95%99%E4%B9%89%E5%A4%A7%E6%84%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">两家教义大意</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E7%9D%A3%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基督教</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%8A%E6%96%AF%E5%85%B0%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">伊斯兰教</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些严重的观念冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E5%AD%90%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%BB%E4%BB%86"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">父子与主仆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%91%E8%B5%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">救赎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B1%E4%B8%8E%E6%80%9C%E6%82%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">爱与怜悯</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">东西方争与不争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%93%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">道教的特殊</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%93%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">道家的精神状态</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国人信自己不靠神拯救</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩展好奇下</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F%E4%B8%8E%E6%95%99%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大食与教派</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E8%A1%A3%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">白衣大食：</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%91%E8%A1%A3%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黑衣大食</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%BF%E8%A1%A3%E5%A4%A7%E9%A3%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">绿衣大食</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E7%A5%9E%E6%95%99%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">是一神教吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%9E%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E5%A5%97%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">其实是一套哲学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%94%E8%8D%A4%E4%B8%89%E5%8E%8C"><span class="toc-number">4.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为五荤三厌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%95%99%E7%A6%81%E6%AC%B2%E4%B8%8E%E9%85%92%E8%82%89%E7%A9%BF%E8%82%A0%E8%BF%87"><span class="toc-number">4.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛教禁欲与酒肉穿肠过</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何要善良</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教一字师</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%A0%E7%A5%9E%E5%89%8D%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">造神前言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%AE%9A%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户定位</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#who"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">who</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#why"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">why</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#what"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">what</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%9E%E5%AF%9F%E6%9C%80%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8%E7%9A%84%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">洞察最本质的用户心理诉求</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%9E%E5%AF%9F%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E6%87%82%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%8E%B7%E5%8F%96%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">洞察诉求，要懂人，如何获取用户心理？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF%E9%87%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%A3%E7%A2%91%E4%B8%8E%E6%97%B6%E5%B0%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1-%E5%B0%91%E5%8D%B3%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%9A"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">产品设计-少即是多</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B3%E7%AD%89-%E7%81%B5%E9%AD%82"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">平等 &amp; 灵魂</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E6%9E%9C%E7%8E%B0%E5%9C%A8%E6%9D%A5%E5%9B%9E%E5%BA%94what%EF%BC%8C%E5%BA%94%E8%AF%A5%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如果现在来回应what，应该是什么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%8E%A9%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%EF%BC%88%E9%86%8D%E9%86%90%E6%8F%90%E9%86%92%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">好玩的补充（醍醐提醒）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%A0%E7%A5%9E%E5%89%8D%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">造神前言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%AE%9A%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户定位</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#who"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">who</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#why"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">why</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#what"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">what</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%9E%E5%AF%9F%E6%9C%80%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8%E7%9A%84%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">洞察最本质的用户心理诉求</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%9E%E5%AF%9F%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E6%87%82%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%8E%B7%E5%8F%96%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">洞察诉求，要懂人，如何获取用户心理？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF%E9%87%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%A3%E7%A2%91%E4%B8%8E%E6%97%B6%E5%B0%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1-%E5%B0%91%E5%8D%B3%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%9A"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/\344\272\272\345\212\233\350\265\204\346\272\220\347\232\204\351\230\266\346\256\265\345\222\214\347\255\226\347\225\245.html" "b/\344\272\272\345\212\233\350\265\204\346\272\220\347\232\204\351\230\266\346\256\265\345\222\214\347\255\226\347\225\245.html"
index b7fb1b8b07..5d51dab993 100644
--- "a/\344\272\272\345\212\233\350\265\204\346\272\220\347\232\204\351\230\266\346\256\265\345\222\214\347\255\226\347\225\245.html"
+++ "b/\344\272\272\345\212\233\350\265\204\346\272\220\347\232\204\351\230\266\346\256\265\345\222\214\347\255\226\347\225\245.html"
@@ -285,7 +285,7 @@ <h2 id="盲目乐观">盲目乐观</h2>
 <li>引入了成熟型人才之后，没有意识到他们的技能会随着企业的发展而“相对衰退”，没有提前做好补仓的准备，导致产品或服务水平波动。</li>
 <li>高潜人才发展带来的红利后，没有意识到他们有离开的风险，依然用感情去规划未来，没有提前做好补仓的准备，导致的产品或服务竞争力不足</li>
 </ul>
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class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">前言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人力资源经营的四个阶段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">三种人力资源战略与代表</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">激励型人力资源战略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%8B%E8%83%BD%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">赋能型人力资源战略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业代表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%BE%E8%B5%B0%E7%9A%84%E8%B7%AF%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E6%89%8D%E5%8E%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">难走的路收益才厚</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%BE%E8%B5%B0%E7%9A%84%E8%B7%AF%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%B3%E6%A3%8B%E6%B2%A1%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E4%BE%BF%E5%AE%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">难走的路：下跳棋没那么便宜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E4%BD%B3%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">最佳状态</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">混合型人力资源战略</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">忌讳的操作</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%A1%E4%B9%B1%E5%BB%BA%E4%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">胡乱建仓</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B2%E7%9B%AE%E4%B9%90%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">盲目乐观</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">前言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人力资源经营的四个阶段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">三种人力资源战略与代表</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">激励型人力资源战略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%8B%E8%83%BD%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">赋能型人力资源战略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业代表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%BE%E8%B5%B0%E7%9A%84%E8%B7%AF%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E6%89%8D%E5%8E%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">难走的路收益才厚</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%BE%E8%B5%B0%E7%9A%84%E8%B7%AF%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%B3%E6%A3%8B%E6%B2%A1%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E4%BE%BF%E5%AE%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">难走的路：下跳棋没那么便宜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E4%BD%B3%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">最佳状态</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%BA%E5%8A%9B%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">混合型人力资源战略</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">忌讳的操作</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%A1%E4%B9%B1%E5%BB%BA%E4%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">胡乱建仓</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B2%E7%9B%AE%E4%B9%90%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">盲目乐观</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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@@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ <h2 id="不着相">不着相</h2>
 <p><font color="dodgerblue">金刚经是要告诉我们，<u>生命的过程是要我们体验了解生存的感觉</u>。用有限脆弱的生命，且使用期限不长的肉体，来完成一些使命和任务，悟透一些道理，重拾我们的本心。包括对金钱的态度，如果我们<u>不懂得用钱，不懂得钱的力量的和意义，人生功课也是等于交白卷</u></font>。</p>
 <p>换一种世俗的角度来说这个事，人在起步的岁数，看世界上的一切皆神奇，去到一个从来没去过的地方，见到一个从来没见过的风景，遇到一个可爱的人，觉得兴奋异常。等到后来，发现很多的地方都很相像，所有的风景都很重复，所有的事情都很平庸，所有的事情或许没什么最终意义，心情就会变得沮丧，此时没有一个游戏心态，情何以堪。</p>
 <p><u>从微观的角度，只有把生活当做游戏才能快乐；从存在的角度，只有把存在当做游戏才能超脱。</u>上面蓝色字体总结表达的就很到位。</p>
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toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%97%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">众生</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%81%E5%B1%B1%E4%BB%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%B1%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">见山仍是山</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E7%9D%80%E7%9B%B8"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">不着相</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/\344\272\272\347\247\215\350\277\201\345\276\231\344\270\216\350\257\255\350\250\200\345\210\206\345\270\203.html" "b/\344\272\272\347\247\215\350\277\201\345\276\231\344\270\216\350\257\255\350\250\200\345\210\206\345\270\203.html"
index 5174dea88d..e00461295e 100644
--- "a/\344\272\272\347\247\215\350\277\201\345\276\231\344\270\216\350\257\255\350\250\200\345\210\206\345\270\203.html"
+++ "b/\344\272\272\347\247\215\350\277\201\345\276\231\344\270\216\350\257\255\350\250\200\345\210\206\345\270\203.html"
@@ -941,7 +941,7 @@ <h1>其它</h1>
 <p>例如常从埃及，巴比伦，印度，希腊，罗马这顺序过来，仿佛这几个国家是先后出现的。实际上<u>巴比伦地区的苏美尔文明比埃及更早</u>，只是巴比伦国出现的较晚，占印度大篇幅的列国时期，<u>孔雀帝国出现时间都比古希腊开始和繁荣的时间要晚</u>。</p>
 <h1>参考资料</h1>
 <p><strong>全球史下看中国（第1部）：上古时代</strong>【翁启宇】</p>
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href="#%E5%A4%9A%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E8%AF%B4%E8%A2%AB%E5%90%A6%E5%86%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">多地区进化说被否决</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E7%9B%B4%E7%AB%8B%E4%BA%BA%E7%81%AD%E7%BB%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">东亚直立人灭绝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%BB%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">单源说是主流</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B2%E7%81%AD%E4%BA%A1%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">已灭亡的人种代表</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%BC%E5%AE%89%E5%BE%B7%E7%89%B9%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">尼安德特人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%B4%9B%E5%8B%92%E6%96%AF%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛洛勒斯人</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E6%99%BA%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代智人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类迁徙发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Y%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E7%AB%8B%E5%A4%A7%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Y染色体立大功</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">单倍群</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论先行</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%8C%96%E6%AC%A1%E5%BA%8F%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分化次序文字化解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E7%B3%BB%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E5%92%8C%E8%89%B2%E7%B3%BB%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E5%AF%B9%E5%BA%94%E8%A7%84%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">父系单倍群和色系人种对应规律</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B2%E9%BB%91%E6%9D%BF%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">敲黑板的说明</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">各人种登场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#A%E7%A7%91%E4%BC%8A%E6%A1%91%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%88%E5%8D%97%E9%83%A8%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E6%A3%95%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">A科伊桑人（南部非洲棕种人）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#B%E5%B0%BC%E6%A0%BC%E5%88%A9%E9%99%80%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%88%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E5%B0%8F%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">B尼格利陀人（非洲小黑人）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E9%9D%9E%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8DDE"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚非黑人种DE</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#E-%E5%B0%BC%E6%A0%BC%E7%BD%97%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">E-尼格罗人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#D-%E5%B0%BC%E6%A0%BC%E5%88%A9%E9%99%80%E4%BA%BA-%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E7%9F%AE%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">D-尼格利陀人-亚洲矮黑人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#D2-%E9%80%82%E5%BA%94%E5%AF%92%E5%86%B7%E6%B0%94%E5%80%99%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%AE%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">D2-适应寒冷气候的矮黑人</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A3%95%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D-CF%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E2%80%93C%E6%A3%95%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D-F%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">棕色人种 CF集团–C棕色人种+F中东部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#C3%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4-%E9%80%9A%E5%8F%A4%E6%96%AF-%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E6%94%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">C3单倍群-通古斯-蒙古支</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#F%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">F中东部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%AF%E9%87%8C%E5%85%B0%E5%8D%A1%E6%B7%B7%E8%A1%80F%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">斯里兰卡混血F单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#H%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">H单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#G%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">G单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#IJK%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">IJK集团</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#IJ%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2-K%E6%AC%A7%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">IJ集团+K欧亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#J%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E2%80%93%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%AD%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">J单倍群体–地中海基因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#I%E5%85%8B%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">I克罗马农人种</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%91%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">在欧洲的科罗马农人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%95%E5%A1%91%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">雕塑艺术成就</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B4%E6%96%AF%E5%85%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E5%85%8B%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E5%90%8E%E8%A3%94%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">巴斯克人是克罗马农人直接后裔？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%8B%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA%E8%A2%AB%E5%90%B8%E6%94%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">克罗马农人被吸收</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%9F%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%8D%E5%B0%91%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲人也有不少黑人基因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%BA%BA%E9%95%BF%E7%9B%B8%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲人长相差别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#K%E6%AC%A7%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">K欧亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LT%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E2%80%94%E2%80%94L%E8%BE%BE%E7%BD%97%E6%AF%97%E8%8D%BC%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E5%92%8CT%E5%9F%83%E5%A1%9E%E4%BF%84%E6%AF%94%E4%BA%9A%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">LT集团——L达罗毗荼集团和T埃塞俄比亚集团</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6L%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.7.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">印度L单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#T%E5%9F%83%E5%A1%9E%E4%BF%84%E6%AF%94%E4%BA%9A%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.7.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">T埃塞俄比亚集团</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#MNOPS%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E2%80%94%E2%80%94S%E5%B7%B4%E5%B8%83%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%B0%E5%87%A0%E5%86%85%E4%BA%9A%E9%AB%98%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%81M%E4%BC%8A%E9%87%8C%E5%AE%89%E6%9F%A5%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%B0%E5%87%A0%E5%86%85%E4%BA%9A%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%81ON%E9%BB%84%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E3%80%81P%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">MNOPS集团——S巴布亚新几内亚高地人、M伊里安查亚新几内亚人、ON黄色人种、P中亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#SM"><span class="toc-number">4.7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SM</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">4.7.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄色人种</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#NO%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">NO黄种人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#N%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">N单倍群黄种人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#O%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">O单倍群黄种人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E5%B2%9B%E6%94%AFO1"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">南岛支O1</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%B0%E6%9F%AC%E6%94%AFO2"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">泰柬支O2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E5%A4%8F%E6%94%AFO3"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">华夏支O3</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E6%AF%8D%E7%B3%BB%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国人母系来源分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E6%97%8F%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉族的单倍群发展</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E5%A4%8F%E5%90%84%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%8F%98%E8%BF%81%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">华夏各地区单倍群历史变迁图</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙古种人并不是黄种人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%AF%E7%A7%8DO3%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA%E6%8E%A8%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">纯种O3黄种人推测</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#P%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">P中亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E4%BC%AF%E5%88%A9%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AF%E9%B9%BF%E5%9C%9F%E8%91%97%EF%BC%8C%E7%88%B1%E6%96%AF%E5%9F%BA%E6%91%A9%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">西伯利亚驯鹿土著，爱斯基摩人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Q%E5%8D%B0%E7%AC%AC%E5%AE%89%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Q印第安人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#R%E5%8D%B0%E6%AC%A7%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8Dfrom-P"><span class="toc-number">4.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">R印欧人种from P</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6R%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">印度R单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E6%94%AFR1a%E5%92%8C%E8%A5%BF%E6%94%AFR1b"><span class="toc-number">4.10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">东支R1a和西支R1b</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#R1b%EF%BC%88%E8%A5%BF%E6%AC%A7%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.10.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">R1b（西欧基因）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#R1a%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4-%E9%9B%85%E5%88%A9%E5%AE%89%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.10.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">R1a单倍群-雅利安人</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚洲现代人类迁徙地图</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">语系分布地图</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E6%AC%A7%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">印欧语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#S%E7%B1%BB%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">S类语言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#K%E7%B1%BB%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">K类语言</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E8%97%8F%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉藏语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B1%89%E8%97%8F%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">印度地区的汉藏语系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E4%BA%9A%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">南亚语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E5%B2%9B%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">南岛语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%8C%E6%8B%89%E5%B0%94%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">乌拉尔语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%BF%E5%B0%94%E6%B3%B0%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">阿尔泰语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E8%80%B3%E5%85%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%90%8A%E8%AF%A1"><span class="toc-number">5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">土耳其的吊诡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%B0%E7%96%86%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E4%BA%A6%E6%98%AF%E5%BE%81%E6%9C%8D%E4%BA%A7%E7%89%A9"><span class="toc-number">5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中亚新疆语言亦是征服产物</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AA-%E5%90%AB%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">闪-含语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E5%8A%A0%E7%B4%A2%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">高加索语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BE%BE%E7%BD%97%E6%AF%97%E8%8D%BC%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">达罗毗荼语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它语系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理小记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%95%E7%B1%B3%E5%B0%94%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">帕米尔高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B2%E6%97%B1%E7%89%A7%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">干旱牧区</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%8A%E6%9C%97%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">伊朗高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%8E%E6%A0%BC%E7%BD%97%E6%96%AF%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%89"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">扎格罗斯山脉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E7%B4%A2%E4%B8%8D%E8%BE%BE%E7%B1%B3%E4%BA%9A%E5%B9%B3%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">美索不达米亚平原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E4%BA%9A%E7%BB%86%E4%BA%9A"><span class="toc-number">6.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">小亚细亚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2"><span class="toc-number">6.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">非洲</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理与气候</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类登场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E7%AB%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">直立人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E8%AF%B4%E8%A2%AB%E5%90%A6%E5%86%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">多地区进化说被否决</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E7%9B%B4%E7%AB%8B%E4%BA%BA%E7%81%AD%E7%BB%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">东亚直立人灭绝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%BB%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">单源说是主流</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B2%E7%81%AD%E4%BA%A1%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">已灭亡的人种代表</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%BC%E5%AE%89%E5%BE%B7%E7%89%B9%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">尼安德特人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%B4%9B%E5%8B%92%E6%96%AF%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛洛勒斯人</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E6%99%BA%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代智人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类迁徙发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Y%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E7%AB%8B%E5%A4%A7%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Y染色体立大功</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">单倍群</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论先行</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%8C%96%E6%AC%A1%E5%BA%8F%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">分化次序文字化解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E7%B3%BB%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E5%92%8C%E8%89%B2%E7%B3%BB%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E5%AF%B9%E5%BA%94%E8%A7%84%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">父系单倍群和色系人种对应规律</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B2%E9%BB%91%E6%9D%BF%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">敲黑板的说明</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">各人种登场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#A%E7%A7%91%E4%BC%8A%E6%A1%91%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%88%E5%8D%97%E9%83%A8%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E6%A3%95%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">A科伊桑人（南部非洲棕种人）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#B%E5%B0%BC%E6%A0%BC%E5%88%A9%E9%99%80%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%88%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E5%B0%8F%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">B尼格利陀人（非洲小黑人）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E9%9D%9E%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8DDE"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚非黑人种DE</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#E-%E5%B0%BC%E6%A0%BC%E7%BD%97%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">E-尼格罗人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#D-%E5%B0%BC%E6%A0%BC%E5%88%A9%E9%99%80%E4%BA%BA-%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E7%9F%AE%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">D-尼格利陀人-亚洲矮黑人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#D2-%E9%80%82%E5%BA%94%E5%AF%92%E5%86%B7%E6%B0%94%E5%80%99%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%AE%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">D2-适应寒冷气候的矮黑人</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A3%95%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D-CF%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E2%80%93C%E6%A3%95%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D-F%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">棕色人种 CF集团–C棕色人种+F中东部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#C3%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4-%E9%80%9A%E5%8F%A4%E6%96%AF-%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E6%94%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">C3单倍群-通古斯-蒙古支</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#F%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">F中东部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%AF%E9%87%8C%E5%85%B0%E5%8D%A1%E6%B7%B7%E8%A1%80F%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">斯里兰卡混血F单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#H%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">H单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#G%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">G单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#IJK%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">IJK集团</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#IJ%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2-K%E6%AC%A7%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">IJ集团+K欧亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#J%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E2%80%93%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%AD%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">J单倍群体–地中海基因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#I%E5%85%8B%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">I克罗马农人种</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%91%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">在欧洲的科罗马农人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%95%E5%A1%91%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">雕塑艺术成就</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B4%E6%96%AF%E5%85%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E5%85%8B%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E5%90%8E%E8%A3%94%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">巴斯克人是克罗马农人直接后裔？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%8B%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E5%86%9C%E4%BA%BA%E8%A2%AB%E5%90%B8%E6%94%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">克罗马农人被吸收</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%9F%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%8D%E5%B0%91%E9%BB%91%E4%BA%BA%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲人也有不少黑人基因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%BA%BA%E9%95%BF%E7%9B%B8%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲人长相差别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#K%E6%AC%A7%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">K欧亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LT%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E2%80%94%E2%80%94L%E8%BE%BE%E7%BD%97%E6%AF%97%E8%8D%BC%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E5%92%8CT%E5%9F%83%E5%A1%9E%E4%BF%84%E6%AF%94%E4%BA%9A%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">LT集团——L达罗毗荼集团和T埃塞俄比亚集团</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6L%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.7.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">印度L单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#T%E5%9F%83%E5%A1%9E%E4%BF%84%E6%AF%94%E4%BA%9A%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.7.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">T埃塞俄比亚集团</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#MNOPS%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E2%80%94%E2%80%94S%E5%B7%B4%E5%B8%83%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%B0%E5%87%A0%E5%86%85%E4%BA%9A%E9%AB%98%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%81M%E4%BC%8A%E9%87%8C%E5%AE%89%E6%9F%A5%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%B0%E5%87%A0%E5%86%85%E4%BA%9A%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%81ON%E9%BB%84%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D%E3%80%81P%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">MNOPS集团——S巴布亚新几内亚高地人、M伊里安查亚新几内亚人、ON黄色人种、P中亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#SM"><span class="toc-number">4.7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SM</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E8%89%B2%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">4.7.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄色人种</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#NO%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">NO黄种人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#N%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">N单倍群黄种人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#O%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">O单倍群黄种人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E5%B2%9B%E6%94%AFO1"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">南岛支O1</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%B0%E6%9F%AC%E6%94%AFO2"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">泰柬支O2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E5%A4%8F%E6%94%AFO3"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">华夏支O3</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E6%AF%8D%E7%B3%BB%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国人母系来源分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E6%97%8F%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉族的单倍群发展</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E5%A4%8F%E5%90%84%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%8F%98%E8%BF%81%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">华夏各地区单倍群历史变迁图</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙古种人并不是黄种人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%AF%E7%A7%8DO3%E9%BB%84%E7%A7%8D%E4%BA%BA%E6%8E%A8%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.8.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">纯种O3黄种人推测</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#P%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E9%83%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">P中亚部落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E4%BC%AF%E5%88%A9%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AF%E9%B9%BF%E5%9C%9F%E8%91%97%EF%BC%8C%E7%88%B1%E6%96%AF%E5%9F%BA%E6%91%A9%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">西伯利亚驯鹿土著，爱斯基摩人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Q%E5%8D%B0%E7%AC%AC%E5%AE%89%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Q印第安人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#R%E5%8D%B0%E6%AC%A7%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%8Dfrom-P"><span class="toc-number">4.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">R印欧人种from P</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6R%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4"><span class="toc-number">4.10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">印度R单倍群</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E6%94%AFR1a%E5%92%8C%E8%A5%BF%E6%94%AFR1b"><span class="toc-number">4.10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">东支R1a和西支R1b</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#R1b%EF%BC%88%E8%A5%BF%E6%AC%A7%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.10.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">R1b（西欧基因）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#R1a%E5%8D%95%E5%80%8D%E7%BE%A4-%E9%9B%85%E5%88%A9%E5%AE%89%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.10.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">R1a单倍群-雅利安人</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E8%BF%81%E5%BE%99%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚洲现代人类迁徙地图</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">语系分布地图</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E6%AC%A7%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">印欧语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#S%E7%B1%BB%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">S类语言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#K%E7%B1%BB%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">K类语言</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E8%97%8F%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉藏语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B1%89%E8%97%8F%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">印度地区的汉藏语系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E4%BA%9A%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">南亚语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E5%B2%9B%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">南岛语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%8C%E6%8B%89%E5%B0%94%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">乌拉尔语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%BF%E5%B0%94%E6%B3%B0%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">阿尔泰语系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E8%80%B3%E5%85%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%90%8A%E8%AF%A1"><span class="toc-number">5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">土耳其的吊诡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%B0%E7%96%86%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E4%BA%A6%E6%98%AF%E5%BE%81%E6%9C%8D%E4%BA%A7%E7%89%A9"><span class="toc-number">5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中亚新疆语言亦是征服产物</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AA-%E5%90%AB%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">闪-含语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E5%8A%A0%E7%B4%A2%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">高加索语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BE%BE%E7%BD%97%E6%AF%97%E8%8D%BC%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">达罗毗荼语系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E8%AF%AD%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它语系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理小记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%95%E7%B1%B3%E5%B0%94%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">帕米尔高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B2%E6%97%B1%E7%89%A7%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">干旱牧区</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%8A%E6%9C%97%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">伊朗高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%8E%E6%A0%BC%E7%BD%97%E6%96%AF%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%89"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">扎格罗斯山脉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E7%B4%A2%E4%B8%8D%E8%BE%BE%E7%B1%B3%E4%BA%9A%E5%B9%B3%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">美索不达米亚平原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E4%BA%9A%E7%BB%86%E4%BA%9A"><span class="toc-number">6.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">小亚细亚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2"><span class="toc-number">6.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">非洲</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考资料</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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diff --git "a/\344\272\272\351\227\264\345\200\274\345\276\227.html" "b/\344\272\272\351\227\264\345\200\274\345\276\227.html"
index a851e1e99d..50481a78e8 100644
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@@ -226,7 +226,7 @@ <h3 id="活在当下，坦然自在">活在当下，坦然自在</h3>
 <p>日文版的翻译放在首标题上了，也更符合岛国人内敛的风格，个人觉得比现今书名《人间值得》更为贴切，或者用二位作者的另一续作的翻译名《活得通透》，也更合适。</p>
 <p>两位作者（都是精神科医生，【奥田弘美】54 vs 92【中村恒子】）如下：</p>
 <p><img src= "data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" onerror="this.onerror=null,this.src=&quot;/img/404.jpg&quot;" data-lazy-src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20220910183931.png" alt=""></p>
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class="toc-text">与人关系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%8C%E7%94%9F%E8%80%8C%E5%AD%A4%E7%8B%AC"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人，生而孤独</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%BB%E5%9C%A8%E5%BD%93%E4%B8%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%9D%A6%E7%84%B6%E8%87%AA%E5%9C%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">活在当下，坦然自在</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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diff --git "a/\344\273\216Error-Based-Injection\347\234\213MySQL group-by\350\277\207\347\250\213.html" "b/\344\273\216Error-Based-Injection\347\234\213MySQL group-by\350\277\207\347\250\213.html"
index a60e9ddfb8..a7942fa175 100644
--- "a/\344\273\216Error-Based-Injection\347\234\213MySQL group-by\350\277\207\347\250\213.html"	
+++ "b/\344\273\216Error-Based-Injection\347\234\213MySQL group-by\350\277\207\347\250\213.html"	
@@ -354,7 +354,7 @@ <h2 id="Drill-Down第四弹：概括总结与优化">Drill-Down第四弹：概
 ">[2]</span></a></sup>来加深形象理解</p>
 </blockquote>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">HatBoy <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://hatboy.github.io/2018/08/28/MySQL%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5">MySQL报错注入</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1941787">看一遍就理解groupby</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/hg1868/article/details/52759944">MySQL排序内部原理揭秘</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/taoerchun/article/details/121376459">MySQL优化器原理</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" 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href="#%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E5%9B%9E%E6%98%BE%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">利用回显的报错注入</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">利用报错信息的报错注入</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B%E8%BF%99%E5%A5%97group-by%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看这套group by组合</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down看看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8F%E6%9C%BA%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">随机数</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%85%8D%E5%A5%97%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E6%89%8D%E5%87%BA%E9%94%99"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">配套什么操作才出错</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%96%E6%9E%90%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">剖析过程</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E5%86%8D%E7%9C%8Bgroup-by"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down再看group by</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%BC%B9%EF%BC%9Aorder-by"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down第三弹：order by</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E5%BC%B9%EF%BC%9A%E6%A6%82%E6%8B%AC%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E4%B8%8E%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down第四弹：概括总结与优化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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href="#%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E5%9B%9E%E6%98%BE%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">利用回显的报错注入</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%A5%E9%94%99%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">利用报错信息的报错注入</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B%E8%BF%99%E5%A5%97group-by%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看这套group by组合</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down看看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8F%E6%9C%BA%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">随机数</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%85%8D%E5%A5%97%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E6%89%8D%E5%87%BA%E9%94%99"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">配套什么操作才出错</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%96%E6%9E%90%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">剖析过程</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E5%86%8D%E7%9C%8Bgroup-by"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down再看group by</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%BC%B9%EF%BC%9Aorder-by"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down第三弹：order by</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Drill-Down%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E5%BC%B9%EF%BC%9A%E6%A6%82%E6%8B%AC%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E4%B8%8E%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Drill-Down第四弹：概括总结与优化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img 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diff --git "a/\344\273\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\345\210\260\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\275\254\345\236\213\347\232\204\345\207\240\344\270\252\346\212\200\345\267\247.html" "b/\344\273\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\345\210\260\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\275\254\345\236\213\347\232\204\345\207\240\344\270\252\346\212\200\345\267\247.html"
index f38a96fc3f..5123c0bca2 100644
--- "a/\344\273\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\345\210\260\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\275\254\345\236\213\347\232\204\345\207\240\344\270\252\346\212\200\345\267\247.html"
+++ "b/\344\273\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\345\210\260\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\275\254\345\236\213\347\232\204\345\207\240\344\270\252\346\212\200\345\267\247.html"
@@ -238,7 +238,7 @@ <h2 id="为个人增值而工作">为个人增值而工作</h2>
 <p>带团队绝不仅仅是技术够高就行，更重要的是综合影响力的提升。只有个人价值真正随着你的工作而一点点提升，才能收获到更多成就感，也能让自己更值钱。让自己更值钱的目标也能让你将很多问题和决定看的更透彻。</p>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>管理不像写代码，没有准确的方法论，如上只是提醒，修行还靠个人。</p>
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href="#%E5%85%85%E5%88%86%E7%9A%84%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8A%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%E6%98%AF%E4%BD%A0%E7%BB%99%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E5%B8%A6%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7%E7%A6%8F%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">充分的向上沟通是你给团队带来的最大福利</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E5%A2%9E%E5%80%BC%E8%80%8C%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">为个人增值而工作</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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diff --git "a/\344\273\216\350\277\205\351\233\267IPO\345\210\260\344\272\222\350\201\224\347\275\221\347\224\237\345\255\230\346\250\241\345\274\217\346\200\235\350\200\203.html" "b/\344\273\216\350\277\205\351\233\267IPO\345\210\260\344\272\222\350\201\224\347\275\221\347\224\237\345\255\230\346\250\241\345\274\217\346\200\235\350\200\203.html"
index dd2aa012c1..b9f6c29071 100644
--- "a/\344\273\216\350\277\205\351\233\267IPO\345\210\260\344\272\222\350\201\224\347\275\221\347\224\237\345\255\230\346\250\241\345\274\217\346\200\235\350\200\203.html"
+++ "b/\344\273\216\350\277\205\351\233\267IPO\345\210\260\344\272\222\350\201\224\347\275\221\347\224\237\345\255\230\346\250\241\345\274\217\346\200\235\350\200\203.html"
@@ -264,7 +264,7 @@ <h2 id="2011其市场数据附录-sup-id-fnref-1-a-href-fn-1-rel-footnote-span-c
 "乐视":1.3
 "其它":8.2</pre>
 <h2 id="数据参考">数据参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">中国经济周刊 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://paper.people.com.cn/zgjjzk/html/2011-08/01/content_886835.htm">两月四度推迟IPO，迅雷是个奇迹，反正我信了</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" 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class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2014%E5%85%B6%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2014其商业模式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏模式估值</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">互联网经济生态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2011%E5%85%B6%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%84%E5%BD%95-sup-id-fnref-1-a-href-fn-1-rel-footnote-span-class-hint-top-hint-error-hint-medium-hint-rounded-hint-bounce-aria-label-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%91%A8%E5%88%8A-%E4%B8%A4%E6%9C%88%E5%9B%9B%E5%BA%A6%E6%8E%A8%E8%BF%9FIPO%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%AA%E5%A5%87%E8%BF%B9%EF%BC%8C%E5%8F%8D%E6%AD%A3%E6%88%91%E4%BF%A1%E4%BA%86-http-paper-people-com-cn-zgjjzk-html-2011-08-01-content-886835-htm-1-span-a-sup"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2011其市场数据附录[1]</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2014%E5%85%B6%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2014其商业模式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏模式估值</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">互联网经济生态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2011%E5%85%B6%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%84%E5%BD%95-sup-id-fnref-1-a-href-fn-1-rel-footnote-span-class-hint-top-hint-error-hint-medium-hint-rounded-hint-bounce-aria-label-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%91%A8%E5%88%8A-%E4%B8%A4%E6%9C%88%E5%9B%9B%E5%BA%A6%E6%8E%A8%E8%BF%9FIPO%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%85%E9%9B%B7%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%AA%E5%A5%87%E8%BF%B9%EF%BC%8C%E5%8F%8D%E6%AD%A3%E6%88%91%E4%BF%A1%E4%BA%86-http-paper-people-com-cn-zgjjzk-html-2011-08-01-content-886835-htm-1-span-a-sup"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2011其市场数据附录[1]</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/\344\274\201\344\270\232\344\272\272\346\211\215\347\232\204\347\255\233\351\200\211\346\250\241\345\236\213.html" "b/\344\274\201\344\270\232\344\272\272\346\211\215\347\232\204\347\255\233\351\200\211\346\250\241\345\236\213.html"
index 6e657fe3f0..54f7ef89b2 100644
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@@ -368,7 +368,7 @@ <h1>岗位评判要求</h1>
 <blockquote>
 <p>但在实际执行过程中，打分制因拆分太细，且分值和比例并不直接映射，不利于操作人记忆掌握，且每个人的打分水位线不同，就像电影评分有人都打分偏高，不利于数据对齐分析，不如简化为更上面的四档位</p>
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class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">各类能力&#x2F;考察指标</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#IQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">IQ</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#PQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">PQ</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#EQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">EQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#EEQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">EEQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Execute"><span class="toc-number">1.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Execute</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Think"><span class="toc-number">1.1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Think</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Lead"><span class="toc-number">1.1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">Lead</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%81%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">态度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ATQ"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ATQ</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AQ"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">AQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#LQ"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">LQ</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">岗位评判要求</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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class="toc-number">1.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">PQ</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#EQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">EQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#EEQ"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">EEQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Execute"><span class="toc-number">1.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Execute</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Think"><span class="toc-number">1.1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Think</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Lead"><span class="toc-number">1.1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">Lead</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%81%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">态度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ATQ"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ATQ</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AQ"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">AQ</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#LQ"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">LQ</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">岗位评判要求</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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diff --git "a/\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\216\206\345\217\262\344\270\216\345\272\224\347\224\250\350\266\213\345\212\277.html" "b/\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\216\206\345\217\262\344\270\216\345\272\224\347\224\250\350\266\213\345\212\277.html"
index 42e6635d02..281c260846 100644
--- "a/\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\216\206\345\217\262\344\270\216\345\272\224\347\224\250\350\266\213\345\212\277.html"
+++ "b/\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\216\206\345\217\262\344\270\216\345\272\224\347\224\250\350\266\213\345\212\277.html"
@@ -333,7 +333,7 @@ <h3 id="新革命的形态">新革命的形态</h3>
 <p>互联网下半场的第一起跑者，摩拜单车</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>10年内 硬件+软件形式重做一遍衣食住行；<u><strong>所有有传感器的，都可以看作新形态</strong></u></p>
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class="toc-text">内涵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">能解决什么问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%9C%9D%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标朝向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E7%9A%84%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据分析的流程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%EF%BC%88%E8%87%AA%E9%A1%B6%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标体系指导（自顶向下）</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E5%91%BC%E4%B9%8B%E6%AC%B2%E5%87%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新的工业革命呼之欲出</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB20%E5%B9%B4IT%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国过去20年IT发展</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%89%8D%E8%BF%9B%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人工智能的前进要素</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人脑的模式</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%A2%E6%80%81"><span 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class="toc-text">内涵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">能解决什么问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%9C%9D%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标朝向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E7%9A%84%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据分析的流程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%EF%BC%88%E8%87%AA%E9%A1%B6%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标体系指导（自顶向下）</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E5%91%BC%E4%B9%8B%E6%AC%B2%E5%87%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新的工业革命呼之欲出</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB20%E5%B9%B4IT%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国过去20年IT发展</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%89%8D%E8%BF%9B%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人工智能的前进要素</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人脑的模式</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%A2%E6%80%81"><span 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diff --git "a/\344\275\216\347\224\237\350\202\262\351\231\267\351\230\261.html" "b/\344\275\216\347\224\237\350\202\262\351\231\267\351\230\261.html"
index bd072ab6b9..0d0e71e593 100644
--- "a/\344\275\216\347\224\237\350\202\262\351\231\267\351\230\261.html"
+++ "b/\344\275\216\347\224\237\350\202\262\351\231\267\351\230\261.html"
@@ -822,7 +822,7 @@ <h3 id="时代对待普通人进步了">时代对待普通人进步了</h3>
 <h2 id="信息终是越辨越明！">信息终是越辨越明！</h2>
 <p>如题</p>
 <h1>参考信息</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">毕马威 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/cn/pdf/zh/2021/06/view-the-trends-and-opportunities-of-china-s-population-change-from-the-7th-census.pdf">从七普看中国人口变化的趋势和机遇</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">网易 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.163.com/dy/article/H9OIMCTO0519906Q.html">完整的“七普”人口数据，终于来了！ </a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知乎 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/588243016">预测2100年中国会有多少人口</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div 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class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">低生育陷阱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%83%E6%99%AE%E7%9A%84%E9%92%9F%E5%A3%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">七普的钟声</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB10%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">过去10年中国人口的变化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E9%BE%84%E5%8C%96%E8%A2%AD%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">老龄化袭来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E6%9D%91%E8%80%81%E9%BE%84%E5%8C%96%E6%9B%B4%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">农村老龄化更严重</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%80%E5%8A%BF%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E7%A6%8F%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">局势中的福地</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人口增长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻态</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动人口变化</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">新中国的人口观察</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%85%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E6%95%B0%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代际人口数量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#2030%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">2030人口预测</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%B9%E5%93%A8%E8%AD%A6%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">吹哨警醒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E9%9A%BE%E5%85%84%E9%9A%BE%E5%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">东亚难兄难弟</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E8%BF%98%E5%A5%8B%E6%96%97%E4%B8%8D-%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E9%95%9C%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻人还奋斗不&#x2F;日本的镜子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%8B%E6%96%97%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">奋斗的动机</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%8D%E5%AD%95%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会不孕症</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业升级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E9%9D%A2%E5%88%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高等教育的两面刃</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9B%E5%A4%87%E7%AB%9E%E8%B5%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">军备竞赛</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9%E5%92%8C%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会变革和女性觉醒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%99%AB%E5%90%81%E5%9A%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">噫吁嚱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7%E5%B8%B8%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">人性常态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%BD%BF%E7%84%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.4.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济使然</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%B5%E8%A7%82%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.4.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">纵观世界</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%B7%98%E6%B1%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.4.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我淘汰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.4.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">国际婚姻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%BA%A2%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.4.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">人口红利</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%88%8D%E4%B8%8D%E5%BE%97%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%93%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">舍不得与当前的对策</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E6%98%AF%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">消费主义是精神思想</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%80%A7%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">消费文明的十大性格</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%8F%AD%E5%BC%80%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%9D%E6%9C%9B%E6%84%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">互联网揭开的绝望感</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA%E7%BE%A4%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">新世代人群特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#X%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">X时代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Y%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Y世代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-dodgerblue-Z%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3-font"><span class="toc-number">1.8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text"> Z世代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E4%B8%8E%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%8B%90%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人口与经济拐点</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%BA%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">躺平</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%BA%E5%B9%B3%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">躺平的解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%AD%89%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中等收入陷阱冲突期</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E8%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">养老</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%94%E7%8E%87%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">生孩子的赔率游戏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E7%A7%8D%E7%BE%A4%E7%9A%84%E6%B7%B7%E6%B2%8C%E8%87%AA%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">1.12.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类种群的混沌自限</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E9%BC%A0%E4%B9%8C%E6%89%98%E9%82%A6-%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E6%B2%89%E6%B2%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.13.</span> <span class="toc-text">老鼠乌托邦&quot;行为沉沦&quot;</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E8%AF%A5%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%85%BB%E8%A7%89%E6%82%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.14.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通人该有的生养觉悟</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E7%BA%BF%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.14.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主线游戏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A9%B7%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">1.14.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">穷人的难处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%AF%B9%E5%BE%85%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E8%BF%9B%E6%AD%A5%E4%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">1.14.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代对待普通人进步了</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%BB%88%E6%98%AF%E8%B6%8A%E8%BE%A8%E8%B6%8A%E6%98%8E%EF%BC%81"><span class="toc-number">1.15.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息终是越辨越明！</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考信息</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" 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class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">七普的钟声</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB10%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">过去10年中国人口的变化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E9%BE%84%E5%8C%96%E8%A2%AD%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">老龄化袭来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E6%9D%91%E8%80%81%E9%BE%84%E5%8C%96%E6%9B%B4%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">农村老龄化更严重</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%80%E5%8A%BF%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E7%A6%8F%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">局势中的福地</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人口增长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻态</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动人口变化</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">新中国的人口观察</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%85%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E6%95%B0%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代际人口数量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#2030%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">2030人口预测</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%B9%E5%93%A8%E8%AD%A6%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">吹哨警醒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E4%BA%9A%E9%9A%BE%E5%85%84%E9%9A%BE%E5%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">东亚难兄难弟</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E8%BF%98%E5%A5%8B%E6%96%97%E4%B8%8D-%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E9%95%9C%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻人还奋斗不&#x2F;日本的镜子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%8B%E6%96%97%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">奋斗的动机</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%8D%E5%AD%95%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会不孕症</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业升级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E9%9D%A2%E5%88%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高等教育的两面刃</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9B%E5%A4%87%E7%AB%9E%E8%B5%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">军备竞赛</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9%E5%92%8C%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会变革和女性觉醒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%99%AB%E5%90%81%E5%9A%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">噫吁嚱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7%E5%B8%B8%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">人性常态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%BD%BF%E7%84%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.4.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济使然</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%B5%E8%A7%82%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.4.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">纵观世界</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%B7%98%E6%B1%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.4.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我淘汰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.4.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">国际婚姻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%BA%A2%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.4.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">人口红利</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%88%8D%E4%B8%8D%E5%BE%97%E4%B8%8E%E5%BD%93%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">舍不得与当前的对策</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E6%98%AF%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">消费主义是精神思想</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%80%A7%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">消费文明的十大性格</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%8F%AD%E5%BC%80%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%9D%E6%9C%9B%E6%84%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">互联网揭开的绝望感</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA%E7%BE%A4%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">新世代人群特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#X%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">X时代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Y%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Y世代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-dodgerblue-Z%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3-font"><span class="toc-number">1.8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text"> Z世代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E4%B8%8E%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%8B%90%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人口与经济拐点</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%BA%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">躺平</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%BA%E5%B9%B3%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">躺平的解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%AD%89%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中等收入陷阱冲突期</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E8%80%81"><span class="toc-number">1.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">养老</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%94%E7%8E%87%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">生孩子的赔率游戏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E7%A7%8D%E7%BE%A4%E7%9A%84%E6%B7%B7%E6%B2%8C%E8%87%AA%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">1.12.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类种群的混沌自限</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E9%BC%A0%E4%B9%8C%E6%89%98%E9%82%A6-%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E6%B2%89%E6%B2%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.13.</span> <span class="toc-text">老鼠乌托邦&quot;行为沉沦&quot;</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E8%AF%A5%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E5%85%BB%E8%A7%89%E6%82%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.14.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通人该有的生养觉悟</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E7%BA%BF%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.14.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主线游戏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A9%B7%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">1.14.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">穷人的难处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%AF%B9%E5%BE%85%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E8%BF%9B%E6%AD%A5%E4%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">1.14.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代对待普通人进步了</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%BB%88%E6%98%AF%E8%B6%8A%E8%BE%A8%E8%B6%8A%E6%98%8E%EF%BC%81"><span class="toc-number">1.15.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息终是越辨越明！</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考信息</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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diff --git "a/\344\275\240\347\232\204\347\201\257\344\272\256\347\235\200\345\220\227.html" "b/\344\275\240\347\232\204\347\201\257\344\272\256\347\235\200\345\220\227.html"
index 09d397162e..a9fe2cc79e 100644
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+++ "b/\344\275\240\347\232\204\347\201\257\344\272\256\347\235\200\345\220\227.html"
@@ -290,7 +290,7 @@ <h3 id="作者的感触">作者的感触</h3>
 <p>解决问题不会是一个道德上中立的的行为，所以首先对自己要真诚。This above all, to thine own self be true [from 莎士比亚之哈姆雷特]</p>
 <p>如果在对技术的使用和构建过程中没有赋予足够的人文方面的重视，技术将毫无价值，甚至是危险的（technology is worthless even dangerous if we don’t pay attention to the human aspects of both its use and its onstruction）</p>
 <p>还有一些摘录，如作序者的骚柔，作者的人际警言，觉得已不再符合自己2020年时的胃口，想回顾看<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.iteye.com/blog/highsky-240889">传送门</a>在此</p>
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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E8%80%85%E5%87%BA%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决者出场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%87%BA%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决方案出场</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#After-%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">After 故事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%BF%B7%E8%B7%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">面对问题不要迷路</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A3%E8%A7%86%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">正视问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BC%BA%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E8%80%85%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%B9%B2%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">缺经验的解决者怎么干？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C%E5%8F%AF%E8%B4%B5%EF%BC%8C%E5%B8%B8%E8%AF%86%E6%97%A0%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">经验可贵，常识无价</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A9%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E8%B5%B7%E8%88%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">让问题起舞</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Make-it-Worse"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Make it Worse</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%BE%E5%A3%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">尾声</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li 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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E8%80%85%E5%87%BA%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决者出场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%87%BA%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决方案出场</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#After-%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">After 故事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%BF%B7%E8%B7%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">面对问题不要迷路</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A3%E8%A7%86%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">正视问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BC%BA%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E8%80%85%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%B9%B2%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">缺经验的解决者怎么干？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C%E5%8F%AF%E8%B4%B5%EF%BC%8C%E5%B8%B8%E8%AF%86%E6%97%A0%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">经验可贵，常识无价</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A9%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E8%B5%B7%E8%88%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">让问题起舞</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Make-it-Worse"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">Make it Worse</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%BE%E5%A3%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">尾声</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li 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@@ -690,7 +690,7 @@ <h1>如何看待保险代理人职业通道</h1>
 <p>如果你准备好了面对高压力，且有足够的人际资源和销售才能，那么可能是你的舞台，但如果你只是被高收入传言吸引，却没有做好充分准备，那么等待你的不会是一场美梦。</p>
 <p>任何行业都没有捷径可走，成功是努力，智慧和运气的结合，保险行业也不例外，可能给你带来财富，但绝不会轻易让你得到。</p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">保险业的监管</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%8E%A9%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代理人模式怎么玩？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%AA%E5%9C%88%EF%BC%9A%E5%A2%9E%E5%91%98%E5%8D%B3%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">怪圈：增员即销售</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%B0%E9%A1%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">困顿</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%87%E9%A3%9E%E8%BD%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上升飞轮</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D%E9%A3%9E%E8%BD%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下降飞轮</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E5%A7%93%E4%BF%9D%E2%80%93%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E4%BA%A7%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">保险姓保–人均产能下降</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E9%95%BF%E2%80%93%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8A%A2%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">成长周期长–其它行业抢人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E5%91%98%E5%8F%97%E9%98%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">增员受阻</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宏观数据分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%92%E9%A3%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">寒风</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%B5%81%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">代理人流失</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E8%BF%90%E5%88%A9%E6%B6%A6%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">营运利润下降</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">从金融数据看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E5%A2%9E%E9%80%9F%E5%92%8C%E8%B5%94%E4%BB%98%E5%A2%9E%E9%80%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%89%AA%E5%88%80%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">收入增速和赔付增速的剪刀差</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%B5%94%E4%BB%98%E6%94%AF%E5%87%BA%E4%BC%9A%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何赔付支出会快速增长？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%99%E7%A7%8D%E5%89%AA%E5%88%80%E5%B7%AE%E4%BC%9A%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%A4%9A%E4%B9%85%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">这种剪刀差会持续多久？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E4%BA%A7%E9%99%A9%E5%92%8C%E4%BA%BA%E8%BA%AB%E9%99%A9%E7%9A%84%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">财产险和人身险的销售比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E7%9C%81%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%84%E6%A8%A1%E6%BD%9C%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">各省的规模潜力</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">改革之举</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看保险姓保</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A5%E6%83%A9%E8%AF%AF%E5%AF%BC%E6%80%A7%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE-%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E5%85%A8%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E8%B4%A8%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">严惩误导性销售 提高全渠道人员质素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%81%E5%9B%9B%E4%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E8%B0%83"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">十四五的调调</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么风险</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">代理人队伍培养如何赋能</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A1%E6%95%B0%E4%BC%98%E4%BA%8E%E9%87%91%E9%A2%9D%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E8%BE%83%E5%8A%A1%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">4.0.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">次数优于金额可能较务实</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%88%87%E5%85%A5%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">互联网如何切入？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%8A%93%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产品抓手</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">服务目标</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何看待保险代理人职业通道</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a 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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">保险业的监管</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%8E%A9%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代理人模式怎么玩？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%AA%E5%9C%88%EF%BC%9A%E5%A2%9E%E5%91%98%E5%8D%B3%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">怪圈：增员即销售</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%B0%E9%A1%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">困顿</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%87%E9%A3%9E%E8%BD%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上升飞轮</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D%E9%A3%9E%E8%BD%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下降飞轮</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9D%E9%99%A9%E5%A7%93%E4%BF%9D%E2%80%93%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E4%BA%A7%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">保险姓保–人均产能下降</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E9%95%BF%E2%80%93%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8A%A2%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">成长周期长–其它行业抢人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E5%91%98%E5%8F%97%E9%98%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">增员受阻</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宏观数据分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%92%E9%A3%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">寒风</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%B5%81%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">代理人流失</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E8%BF%90%E5%88%A9%E6%B6%A6%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">营运利润下降</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">从金融数据看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E5%A2%9E%E9%80%9F%E5%92%8C%E8%B5%94%E4%BB%98%E5%A2%9E%E9%80%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%89%AA%E5%88%80%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">收入增速和赔付增速的剪刀差</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%B5%94%E4%BB%98%E6%94%AF%E5%87%BA%E4%BC%9A%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何赔付支出会快速增长？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%99%E7%A7%8D%E5%89%AA%E5%88%80%E5%B7%AE%E4%BC%9A%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%A4%9A%E4%B9%85%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">这种剪刀差会持续多久？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E4%BA%A7%E9%99%A9%E5%92%8C%E4%BA%BA%E8%BA%AB%E9%99%A9%E7%9A%84%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">财产险和人身险的销售比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E7%9C%81%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%84%E6%A8%A1%E6%BD%9C%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">各省的规模潜力</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">改革之举</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看保险姓保</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A5%E6%83%A9%E8%AF%AF%E5%AF%BC%E6%80%A7%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE-%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E5%85%A8%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E8%B4%A8%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">严惩误导性销售 提高全渠道人员质素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%81%E5%9B%9B%E4%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E8%B0%83"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">十四五的调调</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么风险</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">代理人队伍培养如何赋能</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A1%E6%95%B0%E4%BC%98%E4%BA%8E%E9%87%91%E9%A2%9D%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E8%BE%83%E5%8A%A1%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">4.0.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">次数优于金额可能较务实</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%88%87%E5%85%A5%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">互联网如何切入？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%8A%93%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产品抓手</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">服务目标</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何看待保险代理人职业通道</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a 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diff --git "a/\345\204\277\347\253\245\346\227\266\346\234\237\346\234\200\345\271\270\347\246\21710\344\273\266\344\272\213.html" "b/\345\204\277\347\253\245\346\227\266\346\234\237\346\234\200\345\271\270\347\246\21710\344\273\266\344\272\213.html"
index f86ee4d956..dcd8052157 100644
--- "a/\345\204\277\347\253\245\346\227\266\346\234\237\346\234\200\345\271\270\347\246\21710\344\273\266\344\272\213.html"
+++ "b/\345\204\277\347\253\245\346\227\266\346\234\237\346\234\200\345\271\270\347\246\21710\344\273\266\344\272\213.html"
@@ -227,7 +227,7 @@ <h3 id="总结">总结</h3>
 <p>每天有 2 小时的无目标活动时间，是比早教课程更珍贵的成长养料。</p>
 </li>
 </ul>
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diff --git "a/\345\206\205\345\276\252\347\216\257\344\270\216\345\205\261\345\220\214\345\257\214\350\243\225.html" "b/\345\206\205\345\276\252\347\216\257\344\270\216\345\205\261\345\220\214\345\257\214\350\243\225.html"
index 31d2b57a11..c29a522a72 100644
--- "a/\345\206\205\345\276\252\347\216\257\344\270\216\345\205\261\345\220\214\345\257\214\350\243\225.html"
+++ "b/\345\206\205\345\276\252\347\216\257\344\270\216\345\205\261\345\220\214\345\257\214\350\243\225.html"
@@ -412,7 +412,7 @@ <h1>只谈消费不谈分配</h1>
 <p>而黑龙江要建2185 个医疗机构（2022 年的数据，其中含专科疾病防治院 28 个，妇幼保健院 116 个），黑龙江的人口也只有瑞典的 3 倍而已。再分配效率低是因为我们人口分散，瑞典城市化率 88%，把医院建在城市里就足以覆盖绝大部分人口，而我们是 60%多，墨西哥都有 80%，由于我们地域实在辽阔，剩余 30%的人分布在各种犄角旮旯，安土重迁思维使得即便发展不畅也不愿意离开自己的家乡。但凡有人的地方，我们的基建即便跋山涉水也必须跟上，如果没有二次分配，很多地方连医院学校都养不起。</p>
 <p>搞城镇化本质就是让大家富起来，医疗只是一个侧面，反映着我们的分配成本。在保障公平方面，我们还做了哪些？提高退休金，提高福利保障，扶贫，乡村振兴，可以说做的还不够好，不能像某些人说的什么都没做，但总有人说我怎么感觉不到，怎么不发钱云云。这是因为我们绝大多数是以间接方式运行，没有补贴的公交车价格最少翻 5 倍，直接发钱只会加速不公的出现，底层人收到钱基本只有两条出处：偿还负债+消费。偿还负债会迅速流回金融机构，金融的慕强性，会快速流入富裕人群和发达地区。消费的部分被部分老板赚到集中，然后带着钱去更高级的地方消费。总之钱会以各种形式回到产业源头的发达地区，偏远地区啥也没剩下，还不如人为增加投资这道关卡，基建的本质也是一种二次分配。基建的钱多数来自于转移支付，以工代赈可增加当地人的初次分配收入，还能给贫困地区留下很多物资资产，拉长这笔资金在贫困地区的流通时长。</p>
 <p>二次分配我国做得不错，但最终更彻底解决问题还是要靠初次分配的适时调整。</p>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">躲不开的“过剩”</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%AA%E6%A0%97%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举个栗子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%8C%96%E5%A4%A7%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%89%9B%E7%9A%AE%E7%99%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会化大生产的牛皮癣</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">啥是内循环</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E5%85%B8%E5%9E%8B%E5%8F%8A%E5%BC%8A%E7%AB%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">外循环典型及弊端</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF-%E6%BC%82%E4%BA%AE%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内循环-漂亮国</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%97%E6%96%AF%E7%A6%8F%E6%96%B0%E6%94%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">罗斯福新政</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E8%87%B3%E4%B8%8A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">效率至上？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%B9%B3%E6%B0%91%E5%8C%96-%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术平民化-市场经济的功效</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96-%E7%A9%BA%E5%BF%83%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球化-空心化</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">种花家的艰难转型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%90%9E%E5%86%85%E9%9C%80%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%8B%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">搞内需，这事复杂在哪？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E5%B7%A5%E8%B5%84"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">提工资</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业减税</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%99%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E%E5%91%A2%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">给中产减税呢？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A5100w%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年入100w者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A530w%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">年入30w者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%8E%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E%EF%BC%9F%E4%BB%96%E5%B0%B1%E6%B2%A1%E4%BA%A4%E7%A8%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">低收入减税？他就没交税</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%8B%89%E5%8A%A8%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E-%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E9%AB%98%E8%96%AA%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术拉动经济-创造高薪岗位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%82%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">内循环的直观影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">房价</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E5%8F%A3%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">进口替代</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%81%E8%BE%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%82%E9%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">旁边的杂音</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E5%8D%97"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">越南</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才教育</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国产业转移</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">共同富裕的外部启示</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%BF%E5%9C%BA%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">广场协议</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%89%AF%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8-%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">协议的副作用-产业转移</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B2%94%E8%B7%AF%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分岔路口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">日本对策</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF%E9%99%8D%E5%87%86%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">降息降准的成果</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E8%87%AA%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自日本的部分反思</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%92%E6%92%AD%E4%B8%80%E6%9D%A1%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%E9%9F%A9%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">插播一条近代韩国</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">德国对策</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E5%BD%93%E4%BB%8A%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">德国当今产业人口现状</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E8%87%AA%E3%80%8A%E6%96%AD%E5%B1%82%E7%BA%BF%E3%80%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%84%E6%96%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自《断层线》的评断</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">躲不开的“过剩”</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%AA%E6%A0%97%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举个栗子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E5%8C%96%E5%A4%A7%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%89%9B%E7%9A%AE%E7%99%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会化大生产的牛皮癣</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">啥是内循环</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E5%85%B8%E5%9E%8B%E5%8F%8A%E5%BC%8A%E7%AB%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">外循环典型及弊端</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF-%E6%BC%82%E4%BA%AE%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内循环-漂亮国</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%97%E6%96%AF%E7%A6%8F%E6%96%B0%E6%94%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">罗斯福新政</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E8%87%B3%E4%B8%8A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">效率至上？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%B9%B3%E6%B0%91%E5%8C%96-%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术平民化-市场经济的功效</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96-%E7%A9%BA%E5%BF%83%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球化-空心化</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">种花家的艰难转型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%90%9E%E5%86%85%E9%9C%80%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%8B%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">搞内需，这事复杂在哪？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E5%B7%A5%E8%B5%84"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">提工资</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业减税</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%99%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E%E5%91%A2%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">给中产减税呢？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A5100w%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年入100w者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A530w%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">年入30w者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%8E%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E%EF%BC%9F%E4%BB%96%E5%B0%B1%E6%B2%A1%E4%BA%A4%E7%A8%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">低收入减税？他就没交税</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%8B%89%E5%8A%A8%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E-%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E9%AB%98%E8%96%AA%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术拉动经济-创造高薪岗位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%82%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">内循环的直观影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">房价</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E5%8F%A3%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">进口替代</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%81%E8%BE%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%82%E9%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">旁边的杂音</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E5%8D%97"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">越南</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才教育</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国产业转移</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">共同富裕的外部启示</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%BF%E5%9C%BA%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">广场协议</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%89%AF%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8-%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">协议的副作用-产业转移</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B2%94%E8%B7%AF%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分岔路口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">日本对策</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF%E9%99%8D%E5%87%86%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">降息降准的成果</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E8%87%AA%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自日本的部分反思</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%92%E6%92%AD%E4%B8%80%E6%9D%A1%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%E9%9F%A9%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">插播一条近代韩国</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E5%AF%B9%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">德国对策</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E5%BD%93%E4%BB%8A%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">德国当今产业人口现状</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A5%E8%87%AA%E3%80%8A%E6%96%AD%E5%B1%82%E7%BA%BF%E3%80%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%84%E6%96%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自《断层线》的评断</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a 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diff --git "a/\345\210\2532021-\350\277\2162022.html" "b/\345\210\2532021-\350\277\2162022.html"
index b9ed558dab..4d6d02efa4 100644
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+++ "b/\345\210\2532021-\350\277\2162022.html"
@@ -207,7 +207,7 @@ <h2 id="环境变革与内省调整">环境变革与内省调整</h2>
 <p>人生的本质就是一个人去活着，不要对别人心存太多期待，我们总是想要找到能为自己分担痛苦和悲伤的人，可大多数时候，你以为的惊天动地生无可恋的伤痛，在别人眼里不过是随手拂过的尘埃。人生不易，只有经历过黑暗和无助，你才能感恩生活中的一切习以为常。</p>
 <p>你胸怀大志，去大城市去创业去追梦，我生而俗常，选择简单平凡的守候也是一种人生。人活一世，草木一秋，活着本身就是人生的意义。我们要学会认清现实，接受自己的失败甚至平庸，到头来无非还是柴米油盐酱醋茶，琴棋书画诗酒花。而这些物质和精神世界的核心组成，真的用不到太多财富，更用不到每个人都去追求财富自由。</p>
 <p>人生最大的自由就是懂得与自己的过去和缺陷和解，学会悲喜自渡，星海横流，岁月成碑，生如逆旅，一苇以航。就这样让我们与2021道别吧，与过去的自己道别，与失去的人和遗憾的事道别。站在新的起点上一起拥抱2022，期待新的开始，也愿每个人都能平安喜乐，得偿所愿。</p>
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href="#%E6%AD%A2%E8%B7%8C%E5%9B%9E%E7%A8%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">止跌回稳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BB%B6%E8%BF%9F%E9%80%80%E4%BC%91"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">延迟退休</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%BF%87%E5%A2%83%E5%85%8D%E7%AD%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国过境免签</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%BF%E5%8B%92%E6%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">阿勒泰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E7%BC%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">通缩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E5%A4%84%E9%99%A4%E4%B8%89%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">周处除三害</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E8%83%8C%E5%8F%9B%E5%B7%A5%E4%BA%BA%E9%98%B6%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">我没有背叛工人阶级</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%91%E5%90%AC%E5%88%99%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">监听则明</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%91%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">黑神话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Other"><span class="toc-number">1.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">Other</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a 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@@ -240,7 +240,7 @@ <h3 id="2024年宣导的新型工业化">2024年宣导的新型工业化</h3>
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class="toc-text">AI技术全面渗透各行业</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E4%BA%BA%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">无人机的战争理论革命</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%88%B6%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">智能制造</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E7%BB%8F%E5%8E%86%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%BA%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物科技经历一场产业变革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E7%84%A6%E8%99%91%E6%88%96%E8%A2%AB%E6%94%BB%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">能源焦虑或被攻克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E9%80%A0%E8%82%89"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">人造肉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%BB%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球化仍是大概率事件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#2024%E5%B9%B4%E5%AE%A3%E5%AF%BC%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">2024年宣导的新型工业化</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="toc-text">芯片行业巨变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%99%9A%E5%AE%9E%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%8A%AA%E5%8A%9B%E5%B0%9D%E8%AF%95"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">虚实融合的世界努力尝试</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E7%BB%A7%E7%BB%AD%E5%8A%A0%E7%A0%81%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人工智能继续加码发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E5%8C%BB%E7%96%97%E9%A3%8E%E5%8F%A3%E6%AD%A3%E5%9C%A8%E5%88%B0%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI医疗风口正在到来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E6%B8%97%E9%80%8F%E5%90%84%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI技术全面渗透各行业</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E4%BA%BA%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">无人机的战争理论革命</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%88%B6%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">智能制造</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E7%BB%8F%E5%8E%86%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%BA%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物科技经历一场产业变革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E7%84%A6%E8%99%91%E6%88%96%E8%A2%AB%E6%94%BB%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">能源焦虑或被攻克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E9%80%A0%E8%82%89"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">人造肉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%BB%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球化仍是大概率事件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#2024%E5%B9%B4%E5%AE%A3%E5%AF%BC%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">2024年宣导的新型工业化</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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diff --git "a/\345\215\217\345\220\214\350\277\207\346\273\244\345\260\217\347\254\224\350\256\260.html" "b/\345\215\217\345\220\214\350\277\207\346\273\244\345\260\217\347\254\224\350\256\260.html"
index 7b2b168ef0..4866ebd49f 100644
--- "a/\345\215\217\345\220\214\350\277\207\346\273\244\345\260\217\347\254\224\350\256\260.html"
+++ "b/\345\215\217\345\220\214\350\277\207\346\273\244\345\260\217\347\254\224\350\256\260.html"
@@ -377,7 +377,7 @@ <h2 id="补记：CTR中流行FM算法的特点">补记：CTR中流行FM算法的
 </blockquote>
 <p><strong>FM可以模拟二阶多项式核的SVM模型，MF模型，SVD++模型等</strong>，相比SVM的二阶多项式核而言，FM在样本稀疏的情况下是有优势的。FM的训练/预测 复杂度是线性的，而二阶多项式核SVM需要计算核矩阵，核矩阵复杂度就是$\mathcal{O}(n^2)$。</p>
 <h2 id="参考补充">参考补充</h2>
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id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AF%E8%AF%AD%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">术语表</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%BE%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">显性反馈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%90%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">隐性反馈</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E5%A4%A7%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">两大方向</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Memory-based"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Memory-based</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基于用户</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">基于项目</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%B1%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">弱势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Model-based"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Model-based</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%80%E7%96%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%9B%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">稀疏数据集</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户因子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">项目因子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%82%E6%9D%83%E9%87%8D%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">求权重矩阵</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#ALS"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ALS</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#SVD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">SVD</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Spark%E5%86%85%E7%BD%AE%E5%8D%8F%E5%90%8C%E8%BF%87%E6%BB%A4%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Spark内置协同过滤算法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%BE%E9%9A%90%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">显隐反馈的策略区别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E8%AE%B0%EF%BC%9ACTR%E4%B8%AD%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8CFM%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">补记：CTR中流行FM算法的特点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考补充</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AF%E8%AF%AD%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">术语表</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%BE%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">显性反馈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%90%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">隐性反馈</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E5%A4%A7%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">两大方向</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Memory-based"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Memory-based</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基于用户</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">基于项目</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%B1%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">弱势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Model-based"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Model-based</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%80%E7%96%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%9B%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">稀疏数据集</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户因子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">项目因子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%82%E6%9D%83%E9%87%8D%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">求权重矩阵</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#ALS"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ALS</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#SVD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">SVD</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Spark%E5%86%85%E7%BD%AE%E5%8D%8F%E5%90%8C%E8%BF%87%E6%BB%A4%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Spark内置协同过滤算法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%BE%E9%9A%90%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">显隐反馈的策略区别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E8%AE%B0%EF%BC%9ACTR%E4%B8%AD%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8CFM%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">补记：CTR中流行FM算法的特点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考补充</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">术语前提</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E4%BC%B4%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织伴生的结构性问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总纲</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">善用有限的时间</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时间的特殊特性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E5%92%8C%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9%E5%AF%B9%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%87%E5%BA%A6%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新和变革对时间的过度需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%AB%E5%88%87%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">有效性的迫切性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E4%B8%AD%E8%80%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">对中老年的建议</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">在贡献上下功夫</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8B%E6%83%85%E6%8F%90%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">创造成果的友情提醒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">善用长处</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8A%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">向上管理</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">要事为先</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98vs%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">问题vs机会的视角</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%BA%8B%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99%E5%8D%87%E5%8D%8E"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">要事原则升华</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">有效决策的要素</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E6%9C%BA%E4%B8%8D%E8%83%BD%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3%E6%84%9F%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">计算机不能替代感知</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">勉励</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">补充</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">几个方向管理的本质</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%B1%87%E6%8A%A5"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何进行工作汇报</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%81%E6%9D%A5%E5%90%AC%EF%BC%9A%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%BE%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">谁来听：对象风格很重要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#D%E6%8E%8C%E6%8E%A7%E9%A9%BE%E9%A9%AD%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E8%80%81%E8%99%8E"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">D掌控驾驭型：老虎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#I%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E5%AD%94%E9%9B%80"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">I魅力表现型：孔雀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#C%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3%E5%AE%B6%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E7%8C%AB%E5%A4%B4%E9%B9%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">C思想家分析型：猫头鹰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#S%E8%BF%BD%E9%9A%8F%E8%80%85%E4%BA%B2%E5%92%8C%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E8%80%83%E6%8B%89"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">S追随者亲和型：考拉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9A%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲什么：内容</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E6%9D%90%E6%96%99"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么准备材料</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">要结果</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">进行决策</span></a></li><li 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class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">术语前提</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E4%BC%B4%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织伴生的结构性问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总纲</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">善用有限的时间</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时间的特殊特性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E5%92%8C%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9%E5%AF%B9%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%87%E5%BA%A6%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新和变革对时间的过度需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%AB%E5%88%87%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">有效性的迫切性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E4%B8%AD%E8%80%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">对中老年的建议</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">在贡献上下功夫</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8B%E6%83%85%E6%8F%90%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">创造成果的友情提醒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">善用长处</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8A%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">向上管理</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">要事为先</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98vs%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">问题vs机会的视角</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%BA%8B%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99%E5%8D%87%E5%8D%8E"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">要事原则升华</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">有效决策的要素</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E6%9C%BA%E4%B8%8D%E8%83%BD%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3%E6%84%9F%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">计算机不能替代感知</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">勉励</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">补充</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">几个方向管理的本质</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%B1%87%E6%8A%A5"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何进行工作汇报</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%81%E6%9D%A5%E5%90%AC%EF%BC%9A%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%BE%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">谁来听：对象风格很重要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#D%E6%8E%8C%E6%8E%A7%E9%A9%BE%E9%A9%AD%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E8%80%81%E8%99%8E"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">D掌控驾驭型：老虎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#I%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E5%AD%94%E9%9B%80"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">I魅力表现型：孔雀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#C%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3%E5%AE%B6%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E7%8C%AB%E5%A4%B4%E9%B9%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">C思想家分析型：猫头鹰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#S%E8%BF%BD%E9%9A%8F%E8%80%85%E4%BA%B2%E5%92%8C%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%9A%E8%80%83%E6%8B%89"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">S追随者亲和型：考拉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9A%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲什么：内容</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E6%9D%90%E6%96%99"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么准备材料</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">要结果</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">进行决策</span></a></li><li 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diff --git "a/\345\215\232\345\274\210\347\237\245\350\257\206 and \351\242\204\346\265\213\346\224\266\346\225\233\346\263\225.html" "b/\345\215\232\345\274\210\347\237\245\350\257\206 and \351\242\204\346\265\213\346\224\266\346\225\233\346\263\225.html"
index 274680e6c3..83bf233110 100644
--- "a/\345\215\232\345\274\210\347\237\245\350\257\206 and \351\242\204\346\265\213\346\224\266\346\225\233\346\263\225.html"	
+++ "b/\345\215\232\345\274\210\347\237\245\350\257\206 and \351\242\204\346\265\213\346\224\266\346\225\233\346\263\225.html"	
@@ -275,7 +275,7 @@ <h2 id="麦穗理论：放弃最优决策追求满意决策">麦穗理论：放
 <p>第三段，摘下遇到的第一支属于大类中的麦穗，不再寻找最优方案。可能不是最大的一支，但可心满意足地走完全程</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>放到寻找人生伴侣的算法中，如果相信这套理论，只有20年时间给你做选择（20-40，过了就成黄花菜了），那么可以用20年中的37%，也就是7.4年交往不同的男士，到27岁时，确定最基本的满意标准，然后嫁给往后第一个好于这个标准的男士，并不再寻找更优方案。</p>
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class="toc-text">土法炼钢-德菲尔法</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">拍卖博弈</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E5%9B%BD%E5%BC%8F%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">英国式拍卖</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8D%B7%E5%85%B0%E5%BC%8F%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">荷兰式拍卖</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E5%B0%81%E5%BC%8F%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">密封式拍卖</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%B4%E5%85%8B%E7%91%9E%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">维克瑞拍卖</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%EF%BC%9A%E7%AB%9E%E5%90%88%E4%B8%8E%E8%B5%A2%E5%AE%B6%E9%80%9A%E5%90%83"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">拍卖美元：竞合与赢家通吃</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%93%E7%A0%B4%E9%9B%B6%E5%92%8C%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">打破零和博弈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E4%BC%98%E9%80%89%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%A5%E8%BF%98%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%A5"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">博弈策略优选：一报还一报</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%AF%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">启发</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" 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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%8D%E5%8D%96%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%EF%BC%9A%E7%AB%9E%E5%90%88%E4%B8%8E%E8%B5%A2%E5%AE%B6%E9%80%9A%E5%90%83"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">拍卖美元：竞合与赢家通吃</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%93%E7%A0%B4%E9%9B%B6%E5%92%8C%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">打破零和博弈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E4%BC%98%E9%80%89%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%A5%E8%BF%98%E4%B8%80%E6%8A%A5"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">博弈策略优选：一报还一报</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%AF%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">启发</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" 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@@ -251,7 +251,7 @@ <h2 id="史记可以随意抹黑老板？">史记可以随意抹黑老板？</h2
 <p>具体成书日期不可考，只知道写完时武帝还在位。里面对武帝有不少不利的内容，例如对耗尽国力打匈奴持反对意见，且迷信鬼神，好大喜功。从司马迁的视角看，他只是出于一个史官的职责，秉笔直书。如果武帝知道这样内容的存在，能允许此书传世吗？司马迁自己也不敢赌，因为这是两代人一生的心血。所以他写完后并未有对外宣传，在临终前，把史记的书稿传给了自己的女儿。</p>
 <p>司马迁的女婿参与拥立了汉宣帝，到宣帝坐稳皇位以后，此时汉朝官方已经能接受对武帝的一些批评了。此时杨家地位也很高，所以拿出公开在世人面前。随着史记流传，汉朝官方认识到私人写史书的影响力，后来对于私人写史书持反对态度，东汉时期班彪开始续写史记，班固接力写的时候就被邻居举报了，给抓起来了。私修国史是有罪的，好在弟弟班超为了救哥哥，向汉明帝求情，汉明帝算是个明君，把班固写成的内容看一遍，发现写的确实不错，也没夹带私货，就赦免了他。</p>
 <p>不管是《史记》或是《汉书》，传下来都不容易。</p>
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diff --git "a/\345\216\206\345\217\262\347\232\204\346\225\231\350\256\255.html" "b/\345\216\206\345\217\262\347\232\204\346\225\231\350\256\255.html"
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@@ -314,7 +314,7 @@ <h1>增补章节：人性本私</h1>
 <p>当你贫穷时，你遇到的都是嘲笑，算计，占你便宜的人；你有钱了，你遇到的都是友好善良的好人，<font color="dodgerblue">重点是他们都是同一群人。社会就像猴子爬树，从上往下看，都是笑脸，从下往上看，都是屁股</font>。当你实力足够强大时，才会感受到社会的美好和温柔。</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>人性的本质是什么，既不是本善，也不是本恶，本质是本私的。随着你利益大小的变化而发生变化，无利益冲突时，人性是本善的，产生利益，人性开始变得自私，<font color="blur">利益足够大，人性是恶的</font>。</p>
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style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理决定论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物学的教训</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E6%9D%A5%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E4%B8%8D%E5%B9%B3%E7%AD%89"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生来不自由不平等</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%8D%E4%BB%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">天地不仁</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济道德史</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%93%E5%BE%B7%E8%A7%84%E8%8C%83%E8%B7%9F%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E8%B5%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">道德规范跟经济模式走</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%A9%E7%8C%8E%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">狩猎期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农业期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工业期</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E4%BB%8E%E6%9C%AA%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">罪恶的烈度从未不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%8F%B2%E6%98%AF%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E5%BF%83%E8%84%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%BC%93%E6%85%A2%E8%B7%B3%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济史是财富心脏的缓慢跳动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E9%92%B1%E8%80%85%E6%B2%BB%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">治钱者治一切</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">回头看制度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%9B%E4%B8%BB%E5%88%B6%E6%9C%80%E8%87%AA%E7%84%B6%E2%80%93%E4%B8%AD%E7%AD%89%E6%88%90%E7%BB%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">君主制最自然–中等成绩</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8B%E5%90%9B%E4%B8%BB%E5%88%B6%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E8%B4%B5%E6%97%8F%E7%9A%84%E5%A0%95%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼论下君主制时代贵族的堕落</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%9A%84%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本主义的创造性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B1%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89-%E6%88%98%E6%97%B6%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">共产主义:战时经济</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%91%E6%A0%BC%E5%B0%94%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E7%9A%84%E6%96%AD%E7%AB%A0%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黑格尔哲学的断章应用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的革命</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的进步</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E6%98%AF%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%80%E9%9A%BE%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">民主是政府形式中最难的一种</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%BF%E5%91%BD%E6%82%B2%E8%A7%82%E4%BD%86%E5%8A%AA%E5%8A%9B%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E9%BC%93%E5%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宿命悲观但努力值得鼓励</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E5%8F%A4%E6%98%AF%E9%80%83%E9%81%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">复古是逃避</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教的正向力量</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E8%A6%81%E6%9C%89%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%EF%BC%8C%E5%B0%B1%E4%BC%9A%E6%9C%89%E7%A5%9E%E7%81%B5"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">只要有贫穷，就会有神灵</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%BB%E6%95%99%E5%8F%88%E5%8E%8B%E6%96%B0%E6%95%99%E4%B8%80%E5%A4%B4"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">天主教又压新教一头</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">增补章节：农业革命的骗局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%81%8D%E8%BF%9B%E6%AD%A5%E8%A2%AB%E4%B8%8D%E5%9D%87%E8%A1%A1%E6%94%B6%E5%89%B2%E5%92%8C%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E5%A1%AB%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">普遍进步被不均衡收割和欲望再次填平</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">增补章节：人性本私</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理决定论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物学的教训</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E6%9D%A5%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E4%B8%8D%E5%B9%B3%E7%AD%89"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生来不自由不平等</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%8D%E4%BB%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">天地不仁</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济道德史</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%93%E5%BE%B7%E8%A7%84%E8%8C%83%E8%B7%9F%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E8%B5%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">道德规范跟经济模式走</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%A9%E7%8C%8E%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">狩猎期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农业期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工业期</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%AA%E6%81%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E4%BB%8E%E6%9C%AA%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">罪恶的烈度从未不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%8F%B2%E6%98%AF%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E5%BF%83%E8%84%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%BC%93%E6%85%A2%E8%B7%B3%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济史是财富心脏的缓慢跳动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E9%92%B1%E8%80%85%E6%B2%BB%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">治钱者治一切</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">回头看制度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%9B%E4%B8%BB%E5%88%B6%E6%9C%80%E8%87%AA%E7%84%B6%E2%80%93%E4%B8%AD%E7%AD%89%E6%88%90%E7%BB%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">君主制最自然–中等成绩</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8B%E5%90%9B%E4%B8%BB%E5%88%B6%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E8%B4%B5%E6%97%8F%E7%9A%84%E5%A0%95%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼论下君主制时代贵族的堕落</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%9A%84%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本主义的创造性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B1%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89-%E6%88%98%E6%97%B6%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">共产主义:战时经济</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%91%E6%A0%BC%E5%B0%94%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E7%9A%84%E6%96%AD%E7%AB%A0%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黑格尔哲学的断章应用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的革命</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的进步</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E6%98%AF%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%80%E9%9A%BE%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">民主是政府形式中最难的一种</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%BF%E5%91%BD%E6%82%B2%E8%A7%82%E4%BD%86%E5%8A%AA%E5%8A%9B%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E9%BC%93%E5%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宿命悲观但努力值得鼓励</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E5%8F%A4%E6%98%AF%E9%80%83%E9%81%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">复古是逃避</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教的正向力量</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E8%A6%81%E6%9C%89%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%EF%BC%8C%E5%B0%B1%E4%BC%9A%E6%9C%89%E7%A5%9E%E7%81%B5"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">只要有贫穷，就会有神灵</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%BB%E6%95%99%E5%8F%88%E5%8E%8B%E6%96%B0%E6%95%99%E4%B8%80%E5%A4%B4"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">天主教又压新教一头</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">增补章节：农业革命的骗局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%81%8D%E8%BF%9B%E6%AD%A5%E8%A2%AB%E4%B8%8D%E5%9D%87%E8%A1%A1%E6%94%B6%E5%89%B2%E5%92%8C%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E5%A1%AB%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">普遍进步被不均衡收割和欲望再次填平</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">增补章节：人性本私</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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额外参考学历史不是记时间那叫记事本存储器得有纵向跨时空的穿插和逻辑先秦的棋谱人文家国历久弥新从周代的历史缩影都能窥见后代棋局的棋谱大意周朝时间年最长占文明史长奠定了华夏的重要根基相当于南宋成吉思汗到清四个朝代年到今天的距离军政层面从东周迁到洛阳开始周王朝的发迹之地事实上转移到了秦国名下前期春秋冶铁科技水平不高各位权贵亲戚封地间有很多的缓冲地带随着改造自然能力增强大家的胃口和冲突都变大了韩赵魏三家分晋后历史迈入战国时代诸侯纷争攻伐掠夺礼乐崩塌社会通行的法则就是在武力基础上建立的社会语法剑戟说话经济层面魏国占的土地恰是尧舜禹建立都城的河东之地都是围绕山西运城盐池而建都拥有解池的盬盐而成为文明的发祥之地黄帝蚩尤大战也是为了争夺这个盐池管子的治国理念就是要实行君权对国家经济的垄断性经营对国家的一切社会财富实行有组织有计划的控制只有实行了利出一孔国家才会无敌整个战国时期各国王权已无余力调和国家和民生的羹汤发展到最后权贵阶层和财富阶层混为一体在私营商业势力大为膨胀的背景下由赵而秦由商入朝的吕不韦反映的正是那个时代商人们发达升迁的路线为商官群像的一个历史缩影可只有秦国真正实现了盐铁的专营解池盐卤之地巴蜀的盐尽收秦国之手辅以盐铁专营秦国的强大已无可阻挡新大一统通常短命后跟一个长命的王朝简单解读是终结乱世容易膨胀听不进劝秦如此晋如此隋亦如此削藩也是手艺活汉高帝削藩刘邦最终击败项羽称帝前所封的诸侯都是盟友而非属下而项羽小气不愿分封绥靖各方被迫面对无休止的游击战刘邦削藩的成功关键是在获得压倒性优势之前完全隐藏自己的意图隐藏到韩信英布这种顶尖人物都心存侥幸击败项羽后马上开始了自己的削藩行动关键第一步是把整个齐地纳入自己的管控中借口让韩信衣锦还乡把韩信从齐地改封到项羽的西楚故地不露痕迹地取得齐地控制权分封给自己的儿子从此之后叛乱者都要面对齐地和关中两个地方的强力夹击中央政府获得了显著的地缘优势第二步是控制韩信统治下的西楚国故地韩信政治能力实在不敢恭维不具一个有能力问鼎天下的气度甚至作为一个诸侯王也不及格先是打擦边球可能感觉到刘邦对其不放心私自收留项羽的高级将领结果刘邦一较真却怂了这种主动露怯让刘邦占据了极大的主动最后刘邦用陈平之计诱捕韩信把他的楚王废掉将楚国领土封给了自己的两个亲戚等刘邦把齐楚燕三个国家的辖区封给自己人后刘邦对其它异性藩王的优势已经是决定性的了剩下所有的异性诸侯加在一起也不是刘邦的对手用最小的代价逐渐用自己家族成员取代原来的异性王后世典型的反面案例清康熙康熙高喊削亦反不削亦反的口号典型的冲动型人格朝鲜使臣记载其青壮年时期性燥急多暴怒逼反了本来态度游离的耿尚二藩创下一个历史记录被以云南为基地的叛乱势力席卷了半个中国虽然吴三桂的败局是注定的他年龄大劣势名声差叛军三心二意如果玄烨有刘邦的政治智慧吴三桂掀不起那么快的风浪不过他很快察觉到自己的失策在三藩叛乱后手忙脚乱地宣称暂缓撤耿尚二藩后期成功分化了三位藩王明建文比起建文帝的操作他的小失误不算个事在朱元璋都做好制度性安排藩王主动叛乱成功可能性为的情况下朱允炆偏偏觉得自己比爷爷和刘邦更聪明往死里逼毫无威胁的藩王们成了两千年间唯一被藩王造反推翻的大一统王朝君主靖难之役背后的深层矛盾建文就是朱允炆建立文治的坚定决心但他的新政反而为政权崩塌埋下伏笔区别于洪武时期的严猛治国建文强调自己的宽和对祖制进行了不同程度的改动最明显的是从重武轻文到尊佑右文教的转型如大明律明确规定文官不能封公侯建文登基后为进一步提高文官地位特意将六部尚书升为正一品任用文官作为决策核心这种调整使那些认同祖制的人特别是一些藩王及武臣难以接受重文轻武的政治倾向下必然招致上下军官群体的不满其军队频频失利或许与此有关在朱标死后到立朱允炆为皇太孙的半年时间内可以想象朱棣为储君之位下过不小的力气拉拢了一批王侯武将虽然最后争位失败但拉拢的人却为靖难之役胜利奠定了基础本身开国第一功臣徐达的长女为燕王妃的姻缘安排就增添了朱棣在武将集团中的声望再加上他战功最为显赫与众多武将结下深厚情谊手下聚集一批能征善战的将领通州遵化密云的指挥使率部投降也是力证朝中武将也多有倾心如大舅子徐达之子徐增寿时任左都督多次通报北境京师虚数反观建文集团主要力量是苏浙赣皖地区的文官与朝中武将观念相对不合朱棣即位次日便下令奚复旧制洪武时期武将尚未被文官压倒但在建文时代严重以来文官集团激进推行新政抬高文官地位必然引起武官群体不满在争夺皇权的表面背后是明前期政治演进过程中矛盾冲突的产物是尚武到尚文两种治国理念的交锋两汉时光西汉初年刘邦鉴于秦朝土崩瓦解的教训使用郡国制是符合潮流的但文景之治之后刘家血缘关系疏远尾大不掉武帝削藩的必要条件随之成熟但西汉末年后武帝矫枉过正的策略又显出了负面效应豪族缺少刘姓制约开始雨后春笋生长导致王莽篡汉发生王莽激进不成熟的改革导致豪族的翻脸进而支持刘秀东汉开始刘秀只是借豪族的手减少了人口压力缓解了资源分配的压力但其没有武帝和刘邦的觉悟或不敢没有从源头上清洗豪族这直接导致刘氏无法全面掌握主动权演变成外戚专权豪族平衡天下的局面三国志上演也成了必然武帝为何没像秦朝一样崩溃大家常说武帝继承殷实家底可景帝平定七国之乱时还要向商贾借钱伴随几十年的休养生息无为而治的另外一面就是不抑制土地兼并到武帝时期地方上土地兼并和豪强林立已非常严重了再加上北方匈奴的胃口一天天变大强敌环伺总结来说是个危局所以毛的评价文景守成庸主幸承乱后人口稀少固有假象刘彻乃真雄主改制度获罪天下晚年省己犹不失明对内刘老板为了筹措天价的军费不论是基层百姓贩夫走卒还是商贾豪强皇亲贵族都如同韭菜般被刘彻挥舞镰刀收割了一茬又一茬成为巅峰对决的养料盐铁专营先是剥夺了全体大富绅豪强们的赚取暴利的生计然后从全民手里收间接税再通过算缗告缗没收绝大多数有产人的田宅现金和奴隶掌握铸币权无差别收割天下所有人对外消灭对汉民族生存构成威胁的敌对势力匈奴被打的漠南五王庭前后斩首俘虏壮年人口断层羌人被驱逐南越被灭国朝鲜被灭国还有一众西域小国被灭领土直接扩大一倍获得大量可开垦的土地尖锐的人地矛盾被极大缓解虽然老百姓过得不好为国家战争做准备全阶层不仅老百姓都为生存慌不择路焦头烂额但阶层流动性几乎是西汉年间最强的在那个年代做到了唯才是举之后到宋代大规模科举之前都是世家门阀掌权的时代内部那些听调不听宣的勋贵大商人地方豪强也被彻底碾碎各地曾经的封国也已名存实亡这个曾经磕磕绊绊的国家也被整成了一个整体每个人都被武帝的厚赏麻痹神经也都为自己的生态位焦虑的不能自拔随着汉匈战争的结束民力疲敝但汉朝外部威胁被彻底剪灭让汉成为了一个民族的名字给了一个名族前所未有的尊严最后下罪己诏将罪责揽于一身休养民生在这一基础上出现的昭宣中兴也就顺理成章了给到我们的启示是任何伟大事业的成就都需要在理想主义和现实主义集体荣耀和个体命运间找到那个鲜血淋漓的平衡点西汉吊打东汉西汉周期性清洗顶层贵族地方豪强敢于对各种顶层动刀子不断腾空无用只能食利的顶层位置然后用军功激发中层士人的活力所以大汉从生强到死不断扩张三国分裂了还能吊打周边的唯一一个铁血朝代陵邑制淘汰清理豪强白鹿酌金清理贵族军功制筛选底层东汉不敢明目张胆搞领导淘汰制了所以没西汉能打但军功制仍在连三国都巨能打三国时代文化形态斗争东汉的权柄拉扯战王莽和一群知识分子搞了一次开天辟地的政治实验依照周礼来改造衰亡中的帝国帝国不出意外地被这帮胆大心急眼高手低的理论派搞垮了重整山河的光武帝刘秀吃一堑长一智不敢再相信书生依靠南阳颍川河北豪强势力拥戴上位为了羁縻笼络这些豪强就和他们结成姻亲刘秀不敢触动已根深蒂固的豪强势力只好让他们以血统参股的方式共享帝国的最高权力但刘秀的妥协从一开始就给东汉帝国埋了雷皇位两传之后姻亲舅爷便反客为主靠挟持外甥而成为帝国的实际主人外甥皇帝当然也不服气又依靠身边的宦官发动反击从舅爷手中夺回权力公公们的下层寒门盟友商人和庶族地主奸商老财的子弟走读书出路参与国家政治仍然是不容易的因为要是读书的料早投到书生主流阵营中去所以公公索性忽悠皇帝为自己的盟友打开另一扇方便之门卖官鬻爵让那些有经济实力和社会影响力却不具备做官资格的人通过这种特殊方式参与到国家政治中来这个市场在洛阳宫苑的西园后世称为西园卖官东汉中后期的历史就是一场外戚和宦官轮番把持帝国权柄的乱战乱战中书生们只能跑跑龙套他们中的佼佼者朋比牵引逐渐上升为学阀世家世代相继把持着对经书文义的阐释权这就和中世纪欧洲僧侣扮演的角色差不多了大家玩的是同一套把戏通过加强意识形态工作让被统治者变得更加驯服从而降低统治成本经学和文学从学阀统治下分离在外戚当权的时代里舅爷总会装出一副礼贤下士的样子邀请有社会影响力的学阀出来做官书生虽会做出各种姿态到底扛不住千钟粟和颜如玉的真香定理罢了为了天下苍生老夫就入世走一遭吧或者经费不够学生们吃了老夫还是去找大将军申领点皇粮吧正统的书生和公公显然不可能做好朋友公公们和下层寒门盟友同盟成为既有秩序的破坏者既要从舅爷手里抢皇帝又要从学阀手里抢编制或者叫经费还要跟世家大族争做土豪在意识形态领域公公们虽出身寒微但脑子并不傻成立一个鸿都门学的大学堂与正统派大本营三万太学生抗衡和太学里那些捣鼓经学钻研政治和党争的正统派不同鸿都门学学术专业要平和得多他们研究诗歌辞赋绘画书法这些修身养性的东西从这时起经学和文学就算分了家穿越到东汉中后期的洛阳城千万别随便跟人谈论诗歌当然你碰到曹操除外黄巾之乱儒生知道子不语怪力乱神但公公们不同他们不但相信残缺的身体往往还驱使他们更迫切地寻找灵魂寄托黄巾之乱爆发时汉灵帝发现他宠信的公公中居然有两个太平道的信徒正准备为信仰去出卖他和他的帝国皇帝愤怒了但手里没其它力量可用只得走回用外戚的老路请自己的大舅子何进来担任大将军负责全国的剿匪行动靠平息黄巾之乱重新回到政治舞台的舅爷和书生联盟自然地要求帝国政治重新洗牌以袁绍为首的正统派坚决要求根除宦官势力双方冲突激化非你死我活不能了结灵帝去世双方立刻发生火并先是宦官诱杀大将军何进随后何进手下的袁绍等人又尽杀宦官双方两败俱伤皇权的两大支柱一块完蛋帝国顷刻崩溃乱世烽烟曹魏爱写诗蜀汉多论文诗经中就有四言诗正统派还能容忍至于五言诗在他们看来不啻于离经叛道以青青河畔草为代表的汉末无言古诗十九首几乎可以肯定是出自鸿都门学文人群体之手青青河畔草的后文昔为倡家女今为荡子妇荡子行不归空床难独守之语鸿都门学开创了五言诗与文学艺术化的先河这个文人群体有过短暂的辉煌但随即湮灭在汉末兵火中灵魂与肉体竹简与诗歌都在十常侍之乱和董卓毁洛阳的劫难中灰飞烟灭建安七子领导的五言诗崛起从此文学尤其是诗歌登堂入室成为艺术曹操还写了不少颇有影响力的四言诗如步出夏门行曹丕曹植就以五言诗为主了曹家本是公公之后又处在挑战正统皇权的地位自然也不惮于引领一群邺下文人群体再多搞出个文学革命来了反观正统派人设的蜀汉文人群体他们就绝不写诗更不会写五言诗他们只写出师表陈情表仇国论这样铿锵有力的议论文曹魏写诗蜀汉议论原来如此曹魏的运气董卓迁都长安后讨董联盟的诸侯们开始火并北方的幽州名将公孙瓒开始了他的扩张之路他在多年的对抗鲜卑乌桓的战事中积累了大量经验有包括白马义从的精锐骑兵队实力在河北首屈一指袁绍在冀州刺史让位给他袁绍原为渤海太守后与公孙瓒互有攻伐胜负甚至公孙瓒还略占上风为何袁绍后来居上呢公孙瓒始终有一个名不正言不顺的问题他不是幽州的行政长官受幽州牧刘虞的节制自然非常不对付而后公孙瓒杀害德高望重的刘虞此番作为致使士族都不能同他合作虽表面控制幽州但暗流涌动刘虞的子嗣刘和回到幽州搅动时局在鲍丘之战中公孙瓒的势力被悍将麹义给予歼灭性打击一蹶不振这距离公孙瓒俘杀刘虞势力达到巅峰不过两年时间对于志在控制河北的袁绍来说鲍丘之战后他野心的最大阻碍变成了实力相当的刘和及悍将麹义此二人均被袁绍除掉历史上虽没记载刘和的死因可能是动用了暗杀或毒杀的手段假装自然死亡总之是理应成为幽州牧的刘和从史书中彻底消失了官渡之战前阎柔和鲜于辅不约而同放弃之前联合对抗公孙瓒的盟友袁绍选择投靠曹操其原因应可能就是刘和之死对曹操来说刘虞系力量的加盟使得袁绍不但无法利用幽州资源对抗他还要腾出资源去防备可袁绍又有什么选择呢如果不对刘和麹义下黑手他连初步整合黄河以北都做不到只能说曹操的运气实在太好了南北朝与隋唐隋前乱世年隋建立标志着魏晋南北朝近年的乱世行将结束年后隋灭掉南方的陈朝重新实现中国大一统北周隋唐三个朝代的权力更替实际上是在关陇集团内部进行的更具体一点是在同一个婚姻圈子一堆亲戚间进行的杨坚建立的隋朝实际继承的是宇文泰家族控制的西魏北周政权完成的也是宇文泰家族未竟的统一大业年北魏分裂为东西魏这一段中国的演进如此北朝一统脉络北魏拓跋元孝武帝与高欢决裂自洛阳西逃关陇集团西魏北周宇文隋杨唐李孝武帝西逃长安几个月后被毒杀另立魏文帝好牌打稀烂的一支高欢另立孝静帝东魏北齐高南朝南梁萧侯景之乱南陈陈当时东魏占据中原最富庶之地河北一带是粮食和丝绢的高质产地而西魏的地盘除了关中平原大部分是贫瘠的黄土高原和沙漠地带东魏人口逾千万西魏人口不及千万东魏高欢家族掌控的军队超过万西魏宇文泰军队不及十分之一最终的输赢却是西魏实现了对东魏和南梁的逆袭北魏末年六镇起义在长达年的乱局中杀出了两大权臣家族一是高欢家族一是宇文泰家族高欢崛起更早当高欢拥立北魏孝武帝元修登位遥掌朝权时宇文泰还是关中地区实际控制者贺拔岳手下一员将领北齐高家鲜卑化的汉族政权起高楼高欢发迹比宇文泰早实力也更强他出生时家族已在怀朔镇生活三代成为鲜卑化汉人他还有个鲜卑名叫贺六浑他虽为六镇中最底层的人但相貌帅气相传他在城门站岗时被鲜卑豪族女儿娄氏看上了依靠妻子彩礼买了匹战马终于当上队主实现阶层首次上升而后轻财重土的高欢结交了许多同阶层朋友而后投靠掌握北魏朝政的尔朱兆很得尔朱兆赏识六镇兵很快集结到高欢麾下且其注重联合河北豪族武装创业程中通过一路的姻亲朋友乡里联盟的力量积攒准备与无能力的尔朱兆决裂两场决战后高欢胜出掌权年的尔朱兆兵败自杀高欢在自己岁时入洛阳另立新帝自己为大丞相太师居晋阳派心腹在邺城管理朝政高欢视孝武帝元修为傀儡而元修却视自己为君王借口南伐梁朝调兵遣将高欢听到风声进军洛阳孝武帝仓促投奔关中成为宇文泰自立对抗高欢的一张底牌宴宾客高欢治下东魏一直有胡汉矛盾和腐败问题两个大雷东魏稳定控制河北地区后高欢转而开始抑制汉族豪强此与宇文泰在关中吸收本地豪族打造关陇军工集团缔建胡汉共同体的做法形成强烈对比两位枭雄对待鲜卑化和汉化的根本态度决定了谁最终被历史选中高欢不信任汉人将他封闭的民族理念传给了下一代使得北齐在持续不断的内斗中走向了终点在腐败问题上高欢认为勋贵贪腐都是他们冒着生命危险打天下后应得的回报他只要求勋贵都他的家族保持忠诚其它一概不管且还有奇葩理由现三国分立他若厉行反腐会逼得功臣宿将投奔关中宇文泰或南方萧衍从他为贪腐辩护的这番理论来看虽称得上权谋大师在乱世中白手起家实现霸业但政治视野显得非常有限治理国家能力欠缺高欢做一个草莽大哥没有问题能让底下弟兄过上为所欲为的生活但做一个国家领导人则有待训练在高欢儿子正密谋禅代事宜时历史开了一个大玩笑一个厨子将政治天赋极高的高澄刺杀了前期装笨的弟弟高洋登上历史舞台父子两代三人经年努力取代元氏家族建立北齐王朝楼塌了高洋同样很有政治才干但在将北齐带到一个高度后开始彻底放飞自我将家族和人性中的恶释放出来了纵欲乱伦酗酒滥杀内斗连同高欢遗留的胡汉矛盾和贪腐所有问题一起爆发使得北齐成为历史上臭名昭著的禽兽王朝高欢家族精神气质表现尚武好侠嗜酒好色智商高情商欠缺子孙都具有卓越军事才能高洋就经常在战场上冲锋陷阵身先士卒表现十分勇猛也遗传了爱喝酒的基因但高欢自制力很好大事后饮酒必不过三杯而高洋则不然统治晚期只喝酒不吃饭岁的时候就饮酒过度暴毙且酒后嗜杀乱性乱性也是高欢家族一种病态高欢就收集了一众人妻在这方面儿子们比其父有过之无不及高澄先后与父亲两个妃子私通还强奸大将高慎妻子造成其叛逃西魏引发邙山大战还调戏奸污二弟高洋妻子故而高洋称帝后公然强奸哥哥妻子元氏另一个弟弟称帝后也逼奸二嫂高洋妻子乱伦之事已然乱套不仅如此还聚众淫乱史学家通常认为高氏家族自认鲜卑人并对汉化改革十分排斥视娶弟媳纳寡嫂等鲜卑民族习俗为正常之事高洋建立北齐后既需要宗室成员与怀朔勋贵维持军政统治又担心这些人权势膨胀对皇权构成威胁后期一项主要工作便是对宗室诸王进行打压先后以各种理由逼死自己的族叔两个弟弟而他暴毙后儿子的皇位第二年便被两个叔叔政变废掉借口是清君侧的弘农杨氏汉族辅政大臣恐威胁鲜卑人利益接班的高湛也跟其兄高洋一样酒色过度而死而后就是没完没了宗室内斗北周宇文家汉化的鲜卑政权宇文泰在贺拔岳突然遇害情况下成功接收其军团源于武川豪酉家族的出身个人的政治军事才能及在关陇地区年积累的口碑此时宇文泰远未能与高欢抗衡他需要与孝武帝联手取得政治合法性孝武帝不甘心接受被权臣操控的命运无时无刻不在希望借助不愿降服于高欢的军事势力在匡辅魏室的旗帜下宇文泰称霸关陇在孝武帝与高欢决裂后慌忙带领自己的人马西逃投奔宇文泰通过迎奉孝武帝迁都长安把高欢置于乱臣贼子的舆论高压下宇文泰的这招与以往曹操狭天子以令诸侯有异曲同工之妙收留逃亡皇帝北魏二分孝武帝本质上是一个权力欲望很强的年轻人宇文泰决定先下手秘密鸩杀了年仅岁的孝武帝改立好控制的元宝炬为帝此前高欢以孝武帝弃国逃跑为由改立元善见为帝并迁都邺城北魏正式分裂为东西魏从跟随贺拔岳进入关中到成为西魏实际掌权者仅用了不到年时间关陇改革历史上任何改革都指向富国强兵但历史上改革成少败多不少改着改着就把一个国家改没了宇文泰也开始操刀改革因为不改革西魏肯定亡离宇文泰最近的一场改革是北魏孝文帝主导的改革此场改革在北魏百年左右鲜卑贵族利益板结时进行以汉化为核心改革者是有魄力的但改完后北魏也乱了不到年就分裂成了东西魏宇文泰的这场改革涉及广泛政治经济军事文化无所不包其建立起来的各项制度成为北周隋朝唐朝的制度滥觞影响深远史学界认为隋唐帝国是北朝化的中国很大程度上指的是西魏制度的影响力府兵制尤其在军事制度上宇文泰建立的府兵制以及由此形成的关中本位政策深刻影响了此后多年的中国历史鲜卑化与汉化是北魏一直以来最为棘手的一对矛盾宇文泰的高明之处是从中找到了一条高明的道路实现了胡汉政策的有效结合而府兵制则是其胡汉政策结合的最重要内容东西魏分立时均以北魏六镇军事力量为基础立国只是宇文泰仅有武川镇一镇的军力这也是高欢动辄强势兵力碾压宇文泰的原因要改变军力不足的局面必须扩大兵力来源持续吸收关陇地区豪强的私有兵力及各方势力地方大族及其乡兵以汉族为主也解决了地方豪族拥兵自重尾大不掉的问题由于当时盛行军阀割据而鲜卑的军队部落属性很强基本只认各自的首领不认中央宇文泰还急需解决军权的中央集权化问题宇文泰采取了很高明的一招设置八柱国十二大将军的组织结构八柱国除宇文泰和元魏宗室代表元欣之外其余六人各督二大将军分掌禁旅合计十二大将军每个大将军各领开府二人每一开府各领一军合计二十四军柱国与大将军势力相互交错牵制有利于宇文泰进行最终的驾驭特别是各个柱国依次被任命为朝廷公卿身份由边镇将领变成开国元勋朝廷重臣逐渐脱离军旅生涯变相削弱了他们的军事实力实现了军权的初步集权化关中本位宇文泰将西迁的汉族将领籍贯一律改为关陇郡望给予大批出身寒微的汉将附会士族高门的机会并由此构建关中本位观念强化本地华戎族群的凝聚力和认同感从而与山东崤山以东江左争中原正统宇文泰家族很看重立足关中的周朝历史资源后来自立的政权干脆以周为国号这些都是胡汉融合关中化的体现改革收效府兵制的创建和完备在宇文泰手上前后历时年才完成最终西魏军队人数翻了一番府兵达到万人中央对军权实现了强有力的控制结束了地方割据私立林立的状态且府兵制是兵民分离的职业兵相比东魏北齐兵民合一的义务兵整体素质和战斗力更强运气爆棚面对东魏三路进攻西魏一些将领建议分兵把守诸道但若按此部署则使本来就处于弱势的西魏兵力更为分散极可能被各个击破宇文泰关键时刻做了一个赌徒式的判断赌高欢造浮桥渡河只是虚张声势实则掩护窦泰部从潼关趁虚而入那就先集中兵力消灭窦泰一路宇文泰放出烟雾弹扬言欲保陇右退还长安暗地率千骑兵东出日夜兼程很快抵达潼关附近窦泰听闻宇文泰军突至仓促应战宇文泰利用有利地形四面埋伏诱窦泰部陷入泥淖千弩齐发窦泰军死伤大半被俘万余人宇文泰在与高欢的心理博弈中押中了后者兵分三路的真实目的出奇兵以少胜多击败窦泰使得东魏军队全面撤退潼关之战后宇文泰以攻为守数次出兵侵蚀东魏领土而后的数次双方交战东魏都没占到便宜最后在围攻玉璧城山西稷山西南的战斗中人久攻天不克战死及病故者约人高欢忧愤成疾回到晋阳不久就病死了时年岁高欢死后他的儿子代东魏自立北齐政权被宇文泰家族的北周政权攻灭除开的努力东魏猛将侯景的搅局就是宇文泰那的运气东魏没高欢侯景早就称王称霸了高欢在世时侯景拥兵专制河南高欢病逝仅几日侯景就造反了但侯景的地盘属四战之地凭这个自立独自对抗三国哪一方都是很难的事在举起反旗的那一刻侯景就张罗找靠山了他首先想到的是西魏起初宇文泰觉得划算遂派兵去支援侯景宇文泰部将站出来劝谏说侯景这个人反复无常高欢一死便叛离怎么会忠于西魏呢他只是不愿作被困在池中的蛟龙想利用我们的军事支援罢了宇文泰一听甚觉有理才避免了一场惹火上身的大祸最终这枚苦果被梁武帝吞食了梁武帝被活活饿死而梁朝本有统一天下的可能经侯景之乱后变成了无力复兴任人宰割的弱国北齐和西魏都借机吃成了一个大胖子梁朝崩溃后梁武帝的子侄们陷入无尽的内斗让宇文泰看到了机会公元年荆襄成了西魏的地盘连荆襄以南的湘州湖南也一度被西魏拿下发展为三国中的头号强国综合实力在北齐之上不要说后来的陈朝了这段暴发史从侯景之乱算起不过六七年时间若不是梁武帝引入侯景自我毁灭宇文泰连关中都出不了这就叫机运在宇文泰生命中的最后几年被他牢牢地抓住了公元年宇文泰病逝年仅岁年宇文泰家族取代东魏自立建立北周北周被大隋摘了果子年后年宇文泰之子北周武帝宇文邕攻灭北齐统一北方年正当其打算平突厥定江南实现统一全国的时候却在出征前病逝年后杨坚篡北周自立拉开华夏第二帝国序幕距离宇文泰之死仅仅过去年七八年后中国一统离隋最近一次统一历程是西晋也是借前朝奠定的统一基础完成统一大业有所不同的是西魏立国时是最弱小的一方但也埋下了不安的种子就是统治者一直有心机的要削弱河东地区的人力河东豪族与关中地区一直有不安分的种子隋末大工程大战争安史之乱都有此背景侯景之乱的搅局运气萧衍老年痴呆梁武帝是老年痴呆还是聪明过头他对皇族成员和世族高门的确宽厚到不可思议的程度是对宋齐两朝皇族激烈内斗的矫枉过正但对民众犯罪惩罚极严且实行连坐一人逃亡全家都要被罚作苦工他是不是有圣母心收留侯景非也侯景冒充东魏政权写信试探梁武帝提出用侯景交换被俘虏的皇族萧渊明时他可是说立即就可以将侯景送回去请求梁武帝赐婚时梁武帝说王谢门第太高别妄想了可见心里并未把侯景当回事那么他纵容侯景筹备叛乱是怎么回事呢侯景是东魏开创者高欢的主要合作伙伴高欢死后侯景不愿继续做他儿子高澄的臣子反叛并向梁朝求援梁武帝就让自己的侄子萧渊明带兵支援侯景然而两拨人都败了萧渊明反被俘侯景只剩八百人渡过淮河进入梁朝境内淮南重镇寿阳城附近侯景得知自己可能会被梁武帝用来交换俘虏时果断以占据的寿阳为基地打着清君侧的旗号起兵造反梁武帝萧衍听说侯景叛乱呵呵大笑我只要折下一根树枝就能打死这小子实际上他是等待侯景反叛的寿阳是北魏末年局势大乱梁军趁乱收复的从梁朝立国到侯景叛乱期间寿阳属北朝的时间还多于南朝时间对建康朝廷的离心力很强以夏侯氏和裴氏为代表的当地豪族对萧衍和南梁是极度排斥的本质上是当地豪族联合北方来的侯景反抗梁武帝的行动所以北魏和南梁之间十万大军都未能攻下的寿阳城侯景仅用八百人就拿下了既然前任地方长官无力压制当地豪族干脆让侯景去搅局敢叛乱就来个一锅端战后对该地区的控制可以大大加强奇葩废太子助攻当初占据寿阳的侯景最初目标不过是割地自保然而一个奇葩的萧梁皇族萧正德主动上门求合作让侯景看到了新的机会萧正德是萧衍弟弟萧宏的儿子当年萧衍没儿子就过继了弟弟的这个儿子没想到萧衍自从起兵自立开始突然连生许多个儿子于是就将萧正德归还到弟弟名下称帝后立长子萧统为太子就是著名的文学家昭明太子萧正德一直愤愤不平后来找机会投奔了北魏对外自称废太子北魏大概把这货当神经病毕竟叔父是皇帝亲爹是有大实权的亲王却跑来投奔敌国甚至一度有人建议杀掉这个间谍北魏没杀他基本拿他当空气最后他受不了了又跑回了南梁对宗室宽厚到不可思议的萧衍不但没罚他流泪劝诫他一番后竟然恢复了他的爵位让他继续做官侯景叛乱时竟然任命萧正德做平北将军真是选对人了废太子决定和侯景联合搏一把大的由于淮南豪族的支持和萧正德的叛变侯景从最初占据寿阳叛乱到渡过长江直逼首都建康城都没有遇到什么样的抵抗力量逆转萧正德起初比侯景实力强很多在最初的合作关系中居优势地位在萧正德看来侯景只不过是一个凶悍的打手侯景不久拥立萧正德称帝自己为丞相而在围攻建康城的过程中双方的合作力量对比却逆转了因为联军实力相比守军仍相差甚远故侯景想法设法扩大自己的力量他敏锐察觉到南梁尖锐的阶级矛盾萧衍对皇族和世家大族极度放纵南梁底层充斥着大量破产的农民和部曲奴婢这些人方是沉默的大多数在依靠自己的力量进攻建康失败后侯景下令解放当时豪门贵族家中的奴婢废除了梁朝沉重的赋税开仓放粮奴婢们纷纷投靠侯景侯景也选拔他们之中有才能者为官就这样侯景很快就有了之众都是有顽强斗争精神的构成与萧正德合作关系中也占据了绝对上风晚些时候不满意侯景凌驾自己之上的萧正德试图杀掉侯景时反被侯景所杀皇族的觊觎事情到这个地步完全超出了萧衍的预料不但没能借机清除淮南的反对势力反而使自己麻烦不断但萧衍还没放弃希望因为各地亲王几十万勤王大军已经要到了可是他统治天下近半个世纪此时已经八十多岁了是惊人的高寿包括昭明太子萧统在内许多子孙已经在他之前病死了当时的太子萧纲也在围城之内对于那些正在壮年手握重兵的南梁亲王来说这是一个天赐良机如果能借侯景的手同时除掉梁武帝和太子萧纲呢各路援军各怀鬼胎在力量小许多又要围城的侯景军前梭巡不前城破后梁武帝被俘后不久被饿死萧纲即位后沦为侯景的傀儡失去了号令天下的合法性在侯景失败前被杀侯景最后被梁元帝萧绎击败各地亲王丧失了约束在侯景败亡前就大打内战还不惜向北方的西魏北齐求助最终被来自南方的军阀陈霸先摘了桃子梁朝被推翻只剩昭明太子一系在西魏保护下继续控制着江陵一带南北定局侯景之乱和南梁内战打破了东晋建立后南北对峙年的均势侯景之乱前南朝大约是三国吴蜀两国之和在加上孙权梦寐以求的淮南地区侯景之乱后南朝丧失了所有南北缓冲地带川蜀被西魏政权屯兵淮南全境落入了北齐之手基本只剩吴国地盘在南朝这地界内还分裂成两个死敌陈朝其主要领土建康城和三吴地区在战乱中遭遇毁灭性的摧残实力大大下降长江中游后梁政权以江陵为首都方圆只三百里在西魏的保护下才能延续下去存在的战略价值就是控制长江中下游遏制陈朝的发展空间此时南北朝由北方统一南方的结局已经确定是北方本身的分裂和战争才使南朝又苟延残喘了三十多年梁武帝真正的问题是机关算尽却对自己治下国内的尖锐阶级矛盾和皇族成员的自私心理没有充分认识萧氏门阀齐和梁均出自兰陵萧氏但萧衍和齐皇室亲戚关系刚出了五服至亲作为血缘关系继承南齐大统合法性和优先级并不强且齐这个国号在内部乱杀的法统传承上已紊乱不堪且对外战争连连战败被北魏不断夺地还内战不止天下不堪其扰萧衍换掉旧招牌以全新国号示于天下反有拨乱反正咸与维新的意味兰陵萧氏建立的王朝虽灭亡但却成为中世纪顶级门阀有唐一代就出了十位宰相琅琊榜也是以兰陵萧氏为原型火爆异常隋杨家祖传残暴与被称为变态王朝的北齐相比杨家三代是理性的残忍对待被征服的城市和俘虏治理下的平民百姓残暴程度远超北齐隋朝速亡一点也不冤枉隋文帝的父亲杨忠是一位英勇善战的武将早年滞留南朝后加入北魏北魏分裂后投向西魏长期跟随独孤信与高欢的东魏作战独孤信在史书上因为分别嫁女儿给北周隋唐三朝皇族而知名其中一个女儿嫁给战友杨忠之子杨坚一次战役中独孤信和杨忠被侯景打得一败涂地无力返回关中大本营投入南梁虽在南梁未立功梁武帝仍给给了他俩优厚的生活待遇等他几人想返回关中继续未西魏效力梁武帝不但同意还亲自饯行对于梁武帝的恩德杨忠在打猎时多次惺惺作态鸟向南飞就不射箭表达对梁武帝的感谢但而后的事情上演的却是农夫与蛇侯景之乱南梁内部混乱时西魏趁机南下在荆州方向扩张杨忠在新征服地区烧杀抢掠得到大量金银但并没有将战利品上交朝廷统一分配而是全部私吞南梁被俘将领向宇文泰提及了此事宇文泰考虑到杨忠功劳不小将其外调了事但杨忠认为他没错错的是告发他的人后来怕再次暴露自己抢劫后私吞战利品的行为把控制此地区的所有梁朝贵族杀光灭口攻破江陵城后挑完充作奴婢的人后制造了江陵大屠杀只有三百多家人幸存下来杨忠晚年还参加了与北齐的多次大战也是纵兵大掠也看出刚形成的关陇集团极度野蛮残暴杨忠的表现比起其子的大破坏来却显得微不足道杨坚不太费力当了开国皇帝其崛起是他女婿北周宣帝宇文赟打压宗室和托孤重臣的结果宣帝短短几年相继除掉宗室主要成员作为外戚的杨坚才能迅速崛起宇文赟又早早暴死杨坚趁机控制了中枢而后杨坚大肆屠杀宇文氏皇族所有宇文泰子孙辈杀尽及各种旁支顺着族谱全部灭绝的残暴在当时堪称独一份称帝后的猜忌心和刻薄寡恩也很突出大部分功臣都没有善终有许多朝臣甚至由于激怒了杨坚被打死在朝堂上这些只是统治阶级的倾轧屠戮平毁城市对百姓的罪行更是夸张其篡位过程中控制邺城的北周宗室尉迟宇文泰的外甥官拜相州今安阳总管起兵反抗被杨坚击败而后在邺城屠杀一个多月这次杀戮过于惨烈以至于一向残暴的杨坚都会良心不安多年后在屠杀旧址上建立了一座大慈寺超度亡魂自三国曹魏时代起邺城就是河北重镇铜雀台也在邺城历经数百年发展是河北最繁华的大城出征前杨坚就授意将领们胜利后把邺城从地图上彻底抹去伴随一个多月的烧杀和之后对城市的平毁邺城邯郸市临漳县这座超级大城彻底从史书消失了沧海桑田漳河改北流为东向河道向东拦腰贯穿过邺城邺城冲毁看不出曾经繁华的迹象一马平川零星散落着几个村庄后来唐朝的邺城今安阳已与河北历史名城实不为一地但地理上靠近接壤距公里比临漳县所属的邯郸市公里更近春秋时齐桓公始建邺城战国时魏文侯定为陪都也是西门豹投巫治邺之地曹操于邺城兴霸业取了袁绍大本营建铜雀台封王后国都也在邺城曹丕篡汉后以此为北都后赵东魏北齐相继都邺同样倒霉的还有南朝首都建康隋灭陈统一南北后建康遭受灭顶之灾地面建筑全部拆毁真正字面意义夷为平地随后开垦成田整个隋唐南京地区基本默默无闻地位被扬州取代大兴土木故意消耗民力隋文帝一大功绩是兴建大兴城唐长安城只花了个月就建成在依靠人力的古代这么快的速度背后同样是人民的血泪据资治通鉴的整理记录一个仁寿宫死者数万纵观隋文帝一生堪比后赵暴君石虎但因为他捡便宜重新统一南北终结大分裂时代因此在历史上被大大过誉杨广是中国历史上知名的暴君但就史书事迹而言他的残暴没超越其父亲和祖父虚伪程度也未及他们作为亡国之君往往被丑化到不可理喻的程度就像开国之君通常得到额外美誉一样隋炀帝一些被历史证明是错误的决策除开个人品质背后也有其政治和战略考量修建大运河和攻伐高句丽一个罪在当代一个功败垂成但这两个政治决策本身是一回事不惜人力物力的蛮干存在一个常被人忽略的战略意图蓄意削弱原北齐控制区的人力物力北周吞并南梁西部领土后人口有到隋文帝篡位时官方掌握户口约户共人经历战乱后原北齐境内户籍人口约而北周领土只有对比悬殊灭南陈时陈朝在册人口北齐境内人口远远超过北周和南朝境内人口总数之和北齐灭于比自己弱许多的北周是因为皇族内讧过于激烈对于以关陇集团为基本盘起家的隋朝来说北齐故地对自己的统治是极度危险的必须尽可能多耗一些隋炀帝开辟大运河善待原来南朝士族自己也以萧梁皇族后裔为皇后有联合南朝力量压制北齐故地的因素在内在修建大运河时如此不恤民力很大程度就是为了削弱北齐故地人力财力优势而蓄意为之高智商的隋炀帝在征讨高句丽时劳民伤财如同脑残他内心希望的是北齐故地和高句丽两败俱伤高句丽固然是个威胁但实际上北齐故地一旦整合出强势反隋势力对隋朝威胁更大把关东地区人民视为假想敌的隋炀帝最终玩火自焚死于最信任的关中人组成的近卫军之手隋朝这个对百姓无比残暴的政权终于倒台了隋末的天下大乱关东也成了群雄混战的主战场关中地区和江南地区遭到的破坏相对小得多到唐太宗时末期北齐故地的精华部分也是唐朝最富人口最多的河北和河南两道登记人口分别只有隋巅峰时期的和人口下降比例厉害程度可见一斑当然这种可以削弱北齐故地的行为也使得李渊统一天下时十分顺利给唐做了嫁衣瓦岗盟主被李渊得了天下瓦岗寨李密是顶级豪门贵族曾祖父李弼在关陇集团地位相当高祖父是北周魏国公虽然李密早年丧父但他继承了父亲的爵位和财产因身份高贵早年李密被选为隋炀帝的侍卫但隋炀帝看他不顺眼将他打发回家了初叛失败李密后来加入了杨玄感发起的反隋义军二人都算是门阀出身只是李密家族在关陇集团内部地位要远高于杨玄感成了头号智囊他提了上中下三策上策是在河北蓟县截击在辽东和高句丽作战的隋炀帝主力归路夹击粮草不足的隋军主力中策是进入关中占领长安慢慢发展下策是先占领东都洛阳杨玄感选择了下策在洛阳守军坚守和关中辽东兵的夹击下败死为何选择下策杨玄感起兵时关中或是洛阳均有庞大的正规军辽东军在隋炀帝指挥下一个月就回援杨注定成为先烈杨的叛军基本力量是河南地区的民众装备差让这些人远离老家去遥远的河北或关中作战士气和战斗力必大打折扣所谓上策很难落实等李密有了数十万之众包括精锐的骑兵队遇上归心似箭的隋军主力仍极度吃力杨招募的乌合之众去拦截无异螳臂当车隋炀帝依照宁枉勿纵的原则大肆追查株连一口气捕杀多人流放多人甚至将接受杨开仓赈济的百姓全部处死然而李密竟靠贿赂押送者逃脱了瓦岗称王隐姓埋名后投靠瓦岗寨显示出了极高的军事才华在军中的地位迅速上升在翟让之外独领一军攻占洛口仓胜利后由于李密家族地位很高开始有大批隋朝任命的官吏带着地盘来投如裴仁基带秦琼程咬金等来投这个时期魏征亦加入他的麾下周边的饥民被粮仓吸引纷纷加入瓦岗军各路小武装拥戴李密为盟主大部分中原地区名义上成了李密的地盘李密考虑到洛阳附近隋军仍然强大称王时机尚不成熟决定先称魏公此刻他也面临先入关还是先占洛阳的选择放弃洛阳直扑长安在当时时一个胜率很小的豪赌孤军在两方夹击下很容易被瓮中捉鳖关中东北方向山西长官李渊仍忠于隋炀帝要到几个月后才会起兵反隋一旦入关可能要应对三面受敌局面而且老瓦岗军饥民及各路叛军基本都不愿意在攻下洛阳前入关因此李密必须攻克洛阳或将洛阳守军削弱到一定程度才可能进入关中地区经营他的队伍多是山东人不攻克洛阳的话怎么愿意跟其向西进关且把绿林好汉出身的反王们留下必相互争夺关东就必然全丢了洛阳消耗战作为隋王朝的东都李密和隋朝打起消耗战关中也派军增援李密负箭伤左右司马都战死而休息一个月后李密再次出动全部精锐去找隋军拼命大胜三大粮仓全部落入其手洛阳守军再次陷入被动甚至河北窦建德等势力都向李密表达了归附之意隋炀帝害怕其对关中河北控制被切断砸锅卖铁从江淮和河北调兵支援洛阳李密开始和在江淮流域剿灭起义军的王世充大战首战失利而后三胜洛阳地区的十几万隋军基本或死或降王世充试图挑起李密和翟让的矛盾分化瓦岗军而李密干净利落火并了翟让而这一时期关中地区落入了他人之手李渊太原起兵后利用关中部分隋军东出支援洛阳洛阳守军和各地隋军都在和李密缠斗的机会从山西直入关中很快控制了整个关中得了大利当李密即将攻占洛阳时控制关中的李渊派李建成和李世民率军东出趁乱捞好处双方发生若干次小冲突互有胜负骁果军影响战局隋炀帝禁卫军大部分是关中人急于返回故乡终发起政变弑君后拥戴宇文化及为主沿大运河北上开始向关中进军他们必须要经过的地盘就是李密控制下的中原地区当禁卫军向李密请求借道借粮时李密终和禁卫军发生了战斗影响李密做出决策的关键性因素就是对骁果禁卫军战力的评估骁果军的战斗力远超李密想象且他中箭受了重伤经过跟骁果军的力战李密身经百战的嫡系部队基本消耗殆尽骁果军也战至力竭没能攻占粮仓而断了粮最后大部分成员反过来投降李密李密和骁果军恶战时王世充在洛阳发动政变重新和李密作对本来只需用饥饿逼迫城里士兵投降就行但新投降过来的骁果军将帅和原翟让系统的单雄信等人都撺掇李密和王世充决战在进攻洛阳的战役中李密嫡系内军先接战先前没有得到恢复败下阵来撺掇他进攻洛阳的一拨人又投降了王世充李密一下子陷入了穷途末路只好向西投奔李渊的唐王朝卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡李渊对所有曾称帝称王的群雄的处理方针一律采取设计肉体消灭的政策在隋末群雄中李密是唯一有可能同唐王朝一较高下的人物可惜在隋朝腹心地区洛阳周边起兵的李密必须先战胜洛阳守军才有资格真正实行西进关中或南下剿灭隋炀帝残余势力的战略偏偏洛阳对于隋炀帝也是绝不可失去的地方双方在洛阳城下进行了长年的消耗战最后几乎同归于尽在李密麾下效力的徐世勣秦叔宝程咬金则继续为唐帝国南征北战李承乾为太子为何还谋反太子和能当上皇帝完全是两码事尤其是站在隋唐那个年代上他弟弟李泰已经有了都督州的大权几乎占了当时全国还当上了雍州牧这可是之前李世民干过的位置李承乾的心里肯定是要哆嗦他要是想学习一下太子该怎么做往前一看上一位太子他大爷被他爹干掉再往前看是隋文帝太子杨勇被弟弟杨广干掉清一色的全无好下场在李承乾之前顺利完成父子间正常皇位传承的太子都是陈后主时候的事情了说明在那个时代皇位就不是靠太子这个位子得来的唐之前是短暂的隋朝和混乱的魏晋南北朝再之前是宗室内部有爱的掏心掏肺的西晋废杀弑篡这些字眼几乎到处都是大家玩的几乎都是承乾他爹的那套玄武门继承法宗室们先是开刀互砍等有实力的宗室死的差不多了就该轮到那些有实力的大臣们了最后顺利上位完成改朝换代往后看整个大唐二百八十九年皇位的交接几乎没几次顺利完成的除了李承乾被废后的李治之外第一个顺利继承的竟是安史后的代宗李豫是玄宗的孙子连代宗本人都差点成了政变的牺牲品代宗后皇位都不是皇帝太子说了算了得看神策军支持谁历史上的太子好做的不多历史上皇帝和太子关系大多数都是紧张的因为在帝制环境下他俩本身就是天生的正敌尤其是在科举制还不成气候的时候士绅群体不够大当时的中国是一个皇帝宗族氏族勋贵豪强共生共治谁都不服谁的社会当时东亚乱了快年了别说太子皇帝能善终的都没有几个位置不是拼爹是拼命看了几百年的大乱斗后剩下满满的求生欲可以理解立嫡立长立贤汉人王朝喜欢立嫡立长只有清朝选择立贤这个结论首先不准确汉唐属于嫡子长子继承的都远不到一半宋朝更是惨一大半人连儿子都没生出来绝嗣是宋朝皇帝一大特色真正贯彻嫡长子继承制的只有明代这么热衷主要是朱棣之后他自己的宗室就是最不稳定的因素只有用嫡长子这个死命令把小宗们封印起来养猪大宗才敢安心睡觉所以立嫡立长或立贤最重要的核心因素就是稳定清代宗室制度和明朝不一样不是封王养猪的制度且要把宗室尽可能利用起来好好培养统治数量庞大的汉人他们也想学汉人立嫡立长子嗣不昌像活了最久的乾隆十七个儿子活到成年的只有个到最后一次秘密立储确定由永琰即位是乾隆三十八年此时岁那个时候乾隆能立的儿子已经不多了永琰能即位不一定是因为他很优秀主要是生的晚活得久大多数皇帝几乎都没得选要么是紫禁城风水问题要么是只能与满蒙贵族通婚近亲结婚的后果所以立贤是一种游牧民族的变形制度也是一种子嗣不昌的无奈选择立长还是立贤都有问题立长司马家弄出傻子当皇帝立贤隋炀帝戏精胜出老领导眼光判断失误几率很大其实还是玄武门继承法最有能力只是不利于王朝的稳定嫡长子继承制是以官僚集团把活都干好为前提的总体上汉族从稳定交班出发追求立嫡立长实际情况嫡长有被废被杀病死的不是想立一定能立在继承人问题上多数朝代都是灵活操作安史之乱唐的衰落强盛富庶开放包容的大唐是中国人梦魂萦绕的朝代万邦来朝为大唐盛世找到一个根源那么这个根源最应该是均田与府兵士兵多是家中有田的自耕农他们平时为农战时为兵上阵杀敌虽然需要自备武器但是相较于税负的减免取得战功还可获得封田对于世代以土地为生的中国人来说土地的奖励最能聚拢人心大唐府兵勇武无双那些年大唐走入了一个正向循环朝臣上战场开疆扩土可获封地爵位官位百姓上阵杀敌可免税立功还有封田大唐上下锐意进取原本虎视眈眈的外敌纷纷被打怕打服虽然还有一个讨厌的吐蕃但这并不妨碍这个时代成为盛世但盛世的裂痕也从中产生边患日甚藩镇割据与宦官专权如三朵恶之花在大唐盛世下依次开放三者互为因果交替生长最终消解了大唐的所有荣光府兵制的崩坏大唐战斗力来自府兵府兵制的基础是均田制理论上讲通过军事行动开疆扩土可以获得更多的土地封与府兵府兵一方面戍边开疆一方面生产繁衍这个模式可以一直持续下去但是任何事情皆有极限中国古人为何不厌其烦的修建长城因为长城所保护的是适合农耕的土地而长城之外的土地大多只适合游牧在生产技术落后的农耕时代这些土地未必是资源一旦过多甚至可能是累赘一个帝国如果能够持续对外用兵其原因只可能是一个对外用兵是个赚钱的买卖如果对外用兵变成赔钱的买卖这种用兵就不再是盛世之光而是乱世之源但很可惜大唐由于前期扩张太快边境线太长需要更多的士兵镇守于是大唐不得不将这个赔钱的买卖继续下去在农耕地带或半农半牧地带打仗主场优势在大唐这边但是一旦战场转移至游牧地带大唐的主场优势就变成了客场劣势超过临界点后战争变得越来越不划算但大唐已经回不到从前只能硬着头皮往坚持下去府兵制的基础是均田制但是一方面随着人口数量的增加国家手中可供分封的公田很快消耗殆尽而另一方面土地兼并让无数有地农民变成失地流民从古至今随着社会稳定土地和财富向少数人手中集中的趋势就像地心引力一样不可抗拒即使抛来权贵势力使用暴力手段的强行兼并如果政府不加干涉土地的趋势也是向少数人集中时代一粒沙个人一座山支撑起大唐的府兵们家中确实有田比给别人种田的佃农要好但是家中那为数不多的田产也是他们唯一的资产了一次旱灾水灾家人患一次重病都会把这些在战场上无所畏惧的汉子们逼到走投无路只能卖地以解燃眉之急于是他们没地了地没了边疆还得守仗还得打但他们没有了可以种粮换钱买兵器的土地这仗怎么打没有兵器上战场就是送死去他大爷的逃吧于是大唐荣耀的根大唐府兵崩溃了战斗力减弱大唐的疆域和边界又过大那些当年被打服的少数民族还能继续臣服吗绝不可能于是大唐的边患旋即又起并且愈演愈烈似乎永远都处理不完节度使割据总结来说唐在击败东突厥等周边民族后边疆地区军事形式发生战略性转变由进攻转为防御为有效防御吐蕃突厥契丹等民族的侵扰需在边境设立固定的军事指挥体系而从高宗武后以来均田制逐渐被破坏导致流民逃户问题严重一方面是边疆需要大量人员从军守边一方面大量流民无处安置于是二者结合玄宗时期就大量招募流民来充军戍边于是募兵制取代了府兵制为节度使制度的出现提供了条件既然是为了应对边疆地区快速变化的军事形势那么改革军事指挥体系也有必要需要建立边防快速反应部队财政和后勤就要跟上中央不能全部解决后勤保障问题不能给钱就要给政策就是允许各边防军屯田自行解决供应问题财权下放给节度使税收田赋不交中央留作军费军财治理权均落入节度使手中可见节度使的设置是中央政府为了应对来自多个方向的边患压力在边境地区设立军事和行政机构来快速应对而设立的在中央无法提供后勤保障时是政府平衡中央和地方势力的一种做法从最初设立看起到了加强中央对地方控制的作用十镇节度使兵力全在边疆可见唐王朝对边疆的重视中央军藩镇兵力藩镇节度使治所兵力平卢营州今辽宁朝阳市范阳幽州今北京河东太原朔方灵州今宁夏吴忠市河西凉州今甘肃武威市陇右鄯州今青海海东市乐都区剑南益州今成都北亭北庭都护府安西龟兹城今新疆阿克苏地区库车县剑南广州合计约等于既然支撑府兵制的生产关系已经不存在那么只有改变兵制了不是有很多人没了土地失了生计吗国家招募成为职业军人专门为国家打仗可以吗如果大唐的边疆没那么广如果大唐周边的强敌没那么多这是个好办法如果只看募兵代替府兵后唐军的战斗力似乎还有提升毕竟军人职业化了嘛但是大唐的疆域太大了需要防御的边疆需要面对的强敌太多了于是大唐派往镇守边疆的常规部队常常会遇上仅靠自己应付不来的情况这时候怎么办常规方法当然是找中央找朝廷要援兵这些兵来自朝廷朝廷理应负责到底遇到麻烦应该朝廷全权调度但是在交通通讯等方面如此落后的古代如果将军队的一切事物都交于中央管理其效率可想而知打仗哪里等得及于是兵权开始下放这里说的兵权不是领兵权而是招兵权为了应对复杂的边境战事当地的守军将领后来成为节度使开始根据实际情况需要自行招兵当时构成税基主体的自耕农已经纷纷成为失地流民世家大族们想方设法少交税不交税长安的皇帝其实也不富裕于是魔鬼一点点被释放中央先是命令节度使在边界驻军处组织屯田先保证将士的吃饭问题这倒是很合理但是这样一来一个悖论就来了如果粮食有余可以换钱节度使手上就有了一定的财权如果粮食不足节度使就会向中央要其他赚钱手段无论怎么样节度使都会有一定的财务权中央逐渐放开了盐税铁税其他税务也被逐渐从中央下放到地方地方愈实而中央逾虚当独立的募兵权和征税权都到了节度使手里这些节度使实际上就已经是割据一方的土皇帝了演变到最后给钱不足天不怕地不怕的募兵们不但敢杀节度使也敢杀皇帝最后大唐已经完全信奉武力至上宦官掌握禁军各地节度使掌握地方军军队就是唯一军队就是一切大唐变成了一个由丛林法则主宰的帝国天宝危机大唐天宝载年安史之乱爆发至年两京收复在望唐肃宗已经开始头疼让他头疼的不是如何尽快平定安史之乱而是如何安排朔方军的两位主将他招来李泌询问两位主将郭子仪李光弼已为宰相若克两京平四海则无官以赏奈何李泌给的对策是不要用官位奖励功臣此将导致将帅权重功高难制等天下太平后要用土地和爵位赏赐功臣这样他们会为自己的子孙而珍惜既得利益不敢乱来而建议肃宗未听进去在天下未太平时就开始防范为大唐续命的有功之臣不让他们权重不让他们立下高功安史之乱打了年实际上与肃宗搞帝王之术有很大的关系对他而言打赢战争什么最重要巩固自己的权威最重要相州之战九个节度使联合攻打史思明叛军兵力占压倒优势结果惨败纯粹就是肃宗从中作祟他害怕诸将拥兵自重故未在军中设主帅却命亲信宦官鱼朝恩为观军容宣慰使到军队牵制各方势力使诸将畏首畏尾无法协同相州之战败了虽没有统帅但也要有人担责郭子仪势头正劲那对不起就你了遂将郭子仪解职闲置京师三年多有人说是鱼朝恩构陷谗言能发挥作用说明皇帝相信可历史上那些挑拨君臣关系的所谓谗言说白了都是主子借小人口说出来的心声狡兔死走狗烹正因为赋闲郭子仪则性命无忧而第一战将李光弼则生命堪忧在对付统兵将帅方面代宗比肃宗走得更远肃宗防范将帅权重将他们调来调去但还给他们留后路以备战时之需好再为大唐卖命代宗这里安史叛军已被收拾于是狡兔死走狗烹代宗即位两年内为大唐续命的功臣相继死去来瑱先遭兵谋后被赐死仆固怀恩遭猜忌举起反旗很快病死李光弼在遭受猜忌后忧惧而死当仆固怀恩被逼反勾结吐蕃回纥南下代宗封郭子仪一堆官职让他率兵抵御郭说招抚使是抵御叛军需要不敢辞让但太尉一职绝不能接受上表请辞向皇帝表明心迹说早就想像范蠡一样过逍遥日子但因为寇仇在近家国未安臣子之心不敢宁处才勉为其难担当重任一次请辞不准再次上表辞让代宗终于同意在资治通鉴中落得一个社稷纯臣的评价也折射出郭子仪周遭险境重重别人都在玩阴谋他一把年纪了却只能装疯卖傻否则就是身死家亡于岁去世时已熬过任皇帝生命的最后年与皇帝们持续不断无声之战也终于埋进了历史赵宋一个不正的正统王朝经常美化赵宋而实际上也是少数官僚的烈火烹油十之八九的衣不蔽体在攫取型制度下大多数人依然处在温饱线上重文抑武给了管家与士大夫阶层更大的空间享受生活客观上促进了文化艺术的繁荣不管百姓如何如果身为百姓却向往这样的时代那将是啼笑皆非的拥有世界最大的常备军却总是屡战屡败大宋基本可以等同于大怂纵然历史上任何一个王朝都有被践踏的普通人群但像宋代这样既没有大国崛起也没有小民尊严有的只是君臣共治坐地分赃的黑帮政治从人本主义史观上说作为普通人实在没什么值得缅怀与惋惜我们而今依旧如宋人般国富民穷国内是短视频里的假美女和假消息国外则是合法化后的大麻把大多数人养起来让他们过上不能思考行尸走肉但越来越上瘾的生活美国也变成靠金融吸血全球靠军工维持对外吸血靠医疗对内吸血靠法制维持内部吸血的攫取性制度底层甚至中层也同药渣精英推崇绩优主义让每个人如同上了加速发条的傀儡开封和临安之所以能聚集百万人口是因为皇权将数十万统治阶层宗室官僚禁军及其家属聚集在这为了满足统治阶层的消费需求开封和临安犹如巨大的怪兽源源不断汲取全国人力与财力还我河山莫须有岳飞是一份高洁的礼物南宋朝廷承受不起赵构秦桧一心媾和尤其是赵构这个软脚虾脆皮狗是主要罪人秦桧是个垫背的跪在岳飞墓前在高宗眼里岳飞有四宗罪议立太子高宗其实有过儿子但在苗刘之变中受惊吓死掉了而高宗后来又生不了孩子就过继了两个孩子岳飞再三催高宗早立太子文臣还可以建议武将万万不可说高宗当时就很不客气的说这不是卿不可以谈论的事情淮西兵变当时宋朝军队四大战区淮西军是刘光世的军队战力最差朝廷就想把刘光世的军队给裁撤了一开始想让岳飞领导指挥和岳飞聊过除了韩世忠张俊不受节制外所有部队受你节制但此举收到文官集团强烈抵制当时岳家军已在四路军队中最大有员将领人马如果再把刘光世的五六万人交给他就是尾大不掉了高宗就动摇收回了成命岳飞恼火撂挑子不干了跑到庐山自己母亲坟前守坟他一守坟手下人都休了年假此种情况下高宗再三给岳飞写信要求其回到本职工作上他这才销假回来虽然让岳飞面子是做足了但使得高宗对岳飞产生了不信任和厌恶认为是在要挟自己十二道金牌朝廷为了达成宋金和议要求前线部队都回来其他都很听话马上就回来了岳飞却要道紧急军令才回在高宗看来你已经调动不了了不忌讳武人和文人间的交往朝廷的忌讳岳飞偏不忌讳有时候也舞文弄墨跟文人间书信往来诗词唱和很能参与到文人的活动中去鉴于朝廷对武将的不信任武将的自保之术呢一般是抹黑自己例如张俊就做出一副很贪财的样子韩世忠也大量去收购土地积累财富岳飞不怕死又不贪财杀了岳飞后高宗常舒一口气今兵权归朝廷朕要易将帅承命奉行与差文臣无异宋朝对官员很宽容纵观两宋岳飞这种等级被处死的仅此一例坚定迎回二帝是误解徽钦俩个王八蛋北狩以后赵九妹自己先定的迎回二圣的口号那时飞哥还是大头兵跟着喊口号怎么了皇帝都这么喊自从绍兴五年徽宗死了以后岳飞就再没提过迎回皇帝这种话因为此时对面金国宣传的也是放回钦宗回来当皇帝这不是跟敌国呼应么飞哥在这方面变现很正常识大体对钦总这个废物点心的称呼头衔由圣改成了天眷莫须有当时杀岳飞甚至是朝中共识除了大家简单说的迎回二帝得罪高宗听众易信兵权太重实际原因可能黄袍加身皇帝要杀他可以理解但大臣和将军们也要杀他甚至是宋金的共识是天下有钱人的共识以莫须有不需要理由共识都同意为什么会形成共识呢因为他干了一件拓跋宏当年做的事均田也就是土改在解放了的北方领土上分给了宋朝的金朝的流民和难民你在北方土改了南方呢再打下去金就被全部土改了这还得了所以杀岳飞是朝中共识直捣黄龙府无论是在与宋高宗的沟通上还是实际军事部署上岳飞的重点都是还于旧都直捣黄龙是岳飞为振奋军心而提出的口号基于岳家军的超强战力和岳飞卓越的指挥能力加上两翼友军的倾力配合且颖昌之战后完颜宗弼基本上也会不战而弃汴梁故而岳飞恢复故土是可能的至于之后怎么办要看宋金的力量对比了或看具体情况了若收复东京后下令继续北伐岳家军冒着被分割包围的风险孤军北上才能达成目标不管有没有撤军令岳飞都不会兵行险着全军为上见好就收定是他的不二选择毕竟岳帅从来都是善于思考讲求实际的运用之妙存乎一心宋史岳飞传便是这位战神用兵风格的最好体现胜利下的风险金军在郾城颖昌两场大战中损失惨重女真铁骑满万无敌的神话被岳家军击得粉碎但绝对未到伤筋动骨的地步在岳飞班师后不到半年完颜宗弼即统兵九万再次南下可见金国并没有大伤元气其军事力量也基本完好他们在幽云地区及辽东老家的大量部队还没有调动岳家军连战连胜但其两翼掩护俱失议和先撤了已陷入过于冒进的险境之中另外兵力不足的问题一直困扰着岳飞他实际只有人经过郾城颖昌两次大战和无数小战的消耗加之还需留下力量驻守新占城池和保护补给线岳飞能够投入下一步作战的兵力已不足作为优秀的军事统帅岳飞对此是清楚的故而在拿下永安军今河南巩义后就命令各部向自己驻扎的郾城今河南郾城和王贵驻守的颖昌今河南许昌靠拢以缩短战线集中兵力完颜宗弼也看出了岳家军的命门所在于是不等岳飞调整完毕就抢先向郾城颖昌这两处岳家军后方咽喉部发起反攻虽然这两仗岳家军经浴血搏杀大获全胜但对于敌人击我之后断我归路的打算岳飞不会看不出来金军越往北撤其补给线越短越有利于大军集结应战金军采取诱敌深入之法步步后撤将岳家军吸引到开封以北的大平原上再以骑兵发动反击以步兵为主的岳家军极有可能被敌从侧后迂回分割宋军一旦进入华北平原远离江淮水运的支持其补给效率之低下转运之耗时的劣势就会被成倍放大南宋末年宋军端平入洛时本想赶在蒙古军之前占据汴梁结果一头扎入黄泛区导致后勤系统崩溃最后因断粮而功亏一篑所以即便没有高宗的撤军令在兵力不足且孤军深入的情况下岳飞最理智的做法也应是后撤以集中兵力稳定防线固守待援而不是继续冒进义军武装不应高期待有人指出岳家军当时有一大优势就是黄河南北各路抗金义军的积极配合如果能够集中义军力量就可以极大充实岳家军的战力并从后方袭扰金军前后夹攻以取中原但从冷兵器战争史的一般经验来看对这种类似民兵游击队的义军武装从来都不可对其给予过高期望由于缺乏组织引导和纪律约束义军往往都只有打顺风仗的能力其作用也就仅在于牵制金军部分治安力量假如岳家军战事不利的消息传来号称百万的义军武装很快就会作鸟兽散而且其动辄几十万的数量绝对不能当真百万义军揭竿而起也不过是宋军在宣传上的造势即便岳家军继续北上得到义军武装的支持力度也不会很大相反岳家军还必须拿出相当的装备和补给来支持义军否则这些人顷刻间就会走的走散的散这反过来又大大加重了岳家军的后勤负担宋人一直都有高估北方特别是幽云一带汉人故国情怀的误区实际上当地汉人在辽金百余年以以汉法因俗而待的治理下并不对辽金怀有什么敌意对宋也没有箪食壶浆以迎王师的期望遗民泪尽胡尘里只是南宋文人们一厢情愿的臆想而已士绅堕落邀请异族政权统治三穷皇帝穷百姓穷大臣自称穷问题就是从靖康之变到年年间旧中国政治问题的核心所在也是中国为何没进入殖民时代的部分原因王安石变法的核心是四个字富国强兵被批判的核心也是四个字敛财害民王安石评价走高的背景依然是四个字天下为公其变法围绕增加国家政府收入这个核心问题展开简称为国反对他的人的理由就是为民那么谁是民呢自然是天下士绅对抗王安石变法宋仁宗期间想改变积贫积弱的局面柔和一点的庆历新政年又回到老调重弹失败了猛点的王安石在神宗的支持下变法开了一个藏富于君均贫于民的局面神宗一下线变法就遭到反扑之后几十年靖康之变就来了亡国了左也不是右也不是尝试都失败了南宋朱熹谈起北宋的历史教训回答是古者刻剥之法本朝皆备所以有靖康之乱正是由于盘剥过重北宋亡不亡国大臣们不关心但对连番上书批判王安石要求剥夺王安石死后所有待遇要求废除王安石变法所有内容绝逼是兴趣盎然的南宋立国之时大家关心的仍然不是是否可以北伐抗战复国还是在追问一个问题就是陛下你究竟是怎么来看王安石变法的逼着赵构一定要表态王安石和王安石变法统统都是王八蛋后这些人才心满意足地支持南宋政权偏安一隅直至被元朝灭国为止变法三百年后朱元璋放弃唐宋的开放性财政设施而采取一种保守性和收敛性的体制其说出宋神宗用王安石小人竞进天下骚然此可为戒其个人认知力对王安石极为反感清乾隆直接骂王安石是个混蛋对王安石的风评随着时间线逐步走到臭不可闻的地步随着中国进入近代戏剧性的事情来了中华民族陷入危机后原本那个臭不可闻的王安石风评直接进入扭转的快车道从梁启超开始到新中国直接把王安石变法写入官方教科书中其形象从一个几乎误国小人形象重塑成为一个救国救民的大改革家形象金融化的萌芽文明的进程文明的发展需要人口文化技术等生产力因素的积累唐宋从皇帝和贵族统治的结构转变为皇帝与士绅统治的结构原因就是人口技术文化等生产力因素的累积已跨过一道关口唐宋之前的税收是因人征税中唐之后转向财产国家的关注点转去了对经济的掌控程度从王朝掌握的人口少到王朝掌控的财产越少离亡国就不远了这个转变可能是粮食产出的增加就是粮食产出不仅可以支撑温饱还可以支撑土地额外的经济性物资产出进行远距离商贸的需求文明进步到在人口粮食商业三个点之间构成稳定构型内核从耕者有其田这个能不能活人的问题进入到了有产者要交税这个均衡性问题上去了宋是中国商业社会的顶峰三冗冗兵冗官冗费问题最核心最根本的是冗官通过细密管理让商业抓在自己手里发展出稳固的纸币发行体系打通流通脉络冗官就要让更多士绅进入成为国家认证统治阶级的一部分要有收益最后形成一个藏富于民独穷国君的局面到处求和面对几年一更新不断膨胀的大臣和背后的士绅群体力不从心是皇帝朝廷的常态力量的不平衡是问题的根源财税发展神宗政府对铸钱充满热情便是财税扩张的典型表现在铸钱高峰期两年所造铜钱数目便超过明余年的总量宋室南迁后大部分矿区沦陷金国铸币锐减但南宋财政政策并未转向紧缩和内敛相反很快便建立一套包括东南会子在内的政权体系作为铜钱的替代宋代的会子不是现代意义的货币而是某种具有流通性质的政府债券大宋是个金融帝国纸币决定国家兴亡是利益分配不能贯彻好了才有异族政权入主中国的结果出现宋代以后税收是倒退的在财产税上几乎只有农业税和在农田计算基础上的财产税缺了财产商业增值税异族政权与士绅合流辽金元清这些异族政权特别是金元清三个政权拆开看可以都算得上被邀请进来统治中国的政权辽国的存在年那全都是意外是非常不可思议的事情辽从后晋手上拿到幽云十六州但辽他连一个正经国家实际都算不上是澶渊之盟大怂打赢了却要给岁币达成稳定的宋辽对峙后他才从原来那个部落联邦集合体变成一个真正意义上的国家他开始用治下的汉族统治的幽燕地区作为国家政权建设的发动机推广到原本仅在军事概念上存在的辽国其它地区是汉族士绅汉化支撑了辽国进入国家实体的进程汉化才有出路这就是辽国全部的经验总结后来金国建立并且占领中原珠玉在前有样学样继续学辽国汉化元朝建立继续汉化一方面不汉化他就存在不下去异族政权纷纷选择汉化那么什么是汉化就是利益分配异族政权和汉族士绅的利益分配关系达成一种分赃式的利益平衡与其说是税收不如说是朝廷在收保护费短命蒙元忽必烈占元顺帝占其它帝占有一个人燕铁木尔历经世祖成宗武宗仁宗英宗泰定帝天顺帝文宗明宗宁宗惠宗顺帝帝享年岁成吉思汗的独一性铁木真出现之前游牧民族没出现蒙古帝国这般逆天的存在是匈奴人不是全民皆兵么是柔然人不是来去如风么是突厥人不懂以战养战是回鹘契丹的战马脚力不够强跑不到淮河以南或中亚以西为何成吉思汗之前没人开拓如此宽广的疆域呢草原这片江湖的政治生态是这样的水草丰美时大家各自出去放牧等到水草没有了就集中到一起报团过冬在报团的日子里大家交流一下一年的感受顺便规划一下明年的任务年复一年在这帮报团的人中间总会出现一位首领于是以这位首领为核心的部落就诞生了部落人数可多可少多则上万少则数十部落和部落之间因抢夺牧草和其他资源免不了发生冲突冲突出一个特别能打的部落其它部落便会认其为草原共主但共主并不等于至尊无上的皇帝他并不能支配草原的一切而仅是本部落的资源而已另外其他部落对其义务有限类似武林人士对盟主的感觉因为再厉害撑死就是一个部落的当量这就决定了草原上的共主必然是快起快落的部落制的缺点非常明显就是太松散没有足够向心力这种强势部落带着随从部落的模式破坏力和影响力终究有限很难持续且高强度的对外输出战力以犯边和骚扰为主汉唐就常利用拉拢一派打击一派的方式使得草原尽可能处于孱弱的非统一状态从而降低军事威胁霍去病为啥能开全图直捣匈奴腹地李靖为何能举重若轻干翻突厥草原带路党功不可没千户制正如中原大地出了一个秦始皇草原也等来了他的千古一帝铁木真他的过人之处不局限于军事领域他实行千户制重塑了草原政治生态千户制顾名思义以千人为单位把人口进行编队其不仅是战时单位还是行政单位每个千户有固定的活动范围不能随意移动出圈千户长在范围内有权指定每个牧民的具体放牧场所和要求他们旅行差派徭役战时千户长要负责带领户内岁男子全部出征最关键的是千户长由成吉思汗亲自指派相当于让草原从部落制跳过了分封制直接进化到了郡县制春秋战国年的活铁木真谈笑间一个人就干完了过大的部落瞬间被肢解为数个部落降低了抢夺造反的几率例如万户挂一个虚职下面捏实权的千户长都是我指派的你怎么和我斗原来零散的小部落太过分散固定活动区域管理难度降低了好几个数量级战败的部落奴隶铁木真允许以千户制的方式重建原本奴隶打起仗积极性不高但现在相当于在新政下复国了积极性和忠诚度都大大增加了从制度上杜绝了中原政权大规模招募草原带路党或者直接扶持草原代理人的可能都打散成千户了不可能成建制一批一批去玩离间成吉思汗通过千户制将草原的一切力量都捏在自己手里汗庭中央集权大功告成万蒙古铁骑似一人般如臂使指这绝不是此前的匈奴和突厥可比的但千户制也有弊端和秦有点像原来战争年代尚有通过军功晋升的通道平定天下后没有了怎么办放草原上就是原来还可以通过欺负其他部落来获取不定期的资源红利现在千户制把各自的规模和牧所都定死了上哪去弄新的战利品铁木真的答案是勇士们看看周围全是一帮菜鸡地狭人稀的西夏暮气沉沉的金再往南听说还有一个只知研究儒家理学的宋往西是连皇位都被外人夺了的西辽再往西是建国不久军队都是雇佣过来的花剌子模要怎么做还需要教分裂为何蒙古帝国又如此快消亡了大蒙古帝国到蒙哥死四大汗国独立为止实际只存在多年时间并不算长原因当然很多主要原因还是成吉思汗一走蒙古人就不太能维持中央集权的政治生态了一项大的改革尤其涉及国本涉及体制的改革光靠一代君王是完不成的需要好几代人的坚持才能形成习惯跟秦一样立郡县制始皇帝一死天下一乱秦二世就不住了基于习惯大家很自然去复辟分封制项羽不就只想做一个西楚霸王嘛到武帝之前实际用的也是半分封半郡县直到平定七国之乱推恩令才算把郡县制强行拉回来成吉思汗后没人的威望可以高到在如此广袤的疆域内继续实行中央集权大家都差不多谁打仗都不差谁都是黄金家族的后代更何况忽必烈把汗位继承规则由推举改成了世袭蒙古人就更不可能买这个账了帝国的分裂就是必然的事情从世纪开始当火器成为战争的主角军事科技的进步让草原骑兵失去了对他国的碾压优势使得无法再出现第二个蒙古本来你的宗教经济文化和社会制度先进性就不如农耕文明草原政权自然又回到年年犯边的但打了就跑的老路上蒙元算中国王朝么这可以从几个角度来解读中国是定义为地理概念还是文化族群如果是地理概念那么日本人占领中国建立的王朝是不是中国接受华夏汉文明那么汪伪和伪满算不算中国人的政权其头上有日本人当太上皇用趋势当结果可以说元已经中国化蒙古人自己的认知蒙古文的历史中没有中国这个词一直叫自己蒙古国大元大蒙古国大元是什么词元也是大的意思大大蒙古国是个定语都不是国号外蒙当前一直独立存在争这个叙事权的话我们就不占优他们会认为他们占领了中国只是奴役殖民了这片土地一段时间蒙古战力强么其战术只对东亚古典集权帝国才有效世纪西欧战斗力虽然不强但防御点满蒙古西征中被打败的匈牙利人和波兰人只是一群乌合之众军队中都是些临时凑起来的农民大部分是轻步兵都没什么弩兵年平安夜蒙古直扑波兰首都波兰人吸取之前的教训把木头城堡换成石头的配置了弩炮让蒙古人损失惨重后期金帐汗国基本都败了蒙古人的战法完全不适应欧洲城堡按照中世纪德国的标准蒙古人继续西进也是费每个城堡都是私兵攻打一个巨石城堡的战利品和战损消耗完全不成正比法国能动员的骑兵比东欧的盲流军队总数都多消除藩镇皇帝一下线就亡国封建制比中央郡县更能维持强军力藩镇化更能抵抗外敌入侵其本质上是全面战争和局部战争的区别华夏两次沦陷更是离不开宋明都解决了藩镇化集权体制下的将领都是打工仔西欧每个领主没有绝对实力那苟住比什么都重要防御力拉满封建都是自己的兵保护自己资源和头衔跟你丫战朱明王朝明朝建立的意义明朝的建立让汉族在到之间有个难得的空窗期在这年里喘一口气不至于在异族压迫下窒息唐的后继者是孱弱的两宋崇文抑武为方针带来的后果是连基本盘都保不住更不用提靖康之耻和崖山沦陷唐宋元明清若少了明朝那么汉人在上一次统治全国的稳定期是多年前的唐玄宗时期若无明朝重塑法统汉人或许会成为类似罗马人的历史名词唐以后关中残破不堪被金元统治近年往北半个陕甘宁被西夏统治到明朝收复至少脱离汉族统治多年整个大西南包括四川贵州土司遍地云南从六诏到大理再到明初至少多年当地百姓已经不知道汉字燕云十六州丢失多年淮河自北宋灭亡近年沦落异族南宋旧城被元统治也有多年如没有明朝汉人经历持续年的异族统治后民族意识是否能很好保留难说土木之变的连锁历史历史上蒙古民族是由两个基本部分组成的古代两分为草原百姓和林中百姓瓦剌简单来说是指西部蒙古族清朝称漠西蒙古瓦剌的意思是森林之民或邻近者北京保卫战与夺门之变调兵备战从全国各地调兵勤王含两京河南的预备役沿海备倭军漕运运粮军三类都不算精锐但也凑了万兵员当时京师军队只有配备武器盔甲于谦又下令将南京储存武器的共计件调入北京还派人去土木堡战场收集明军遗弃的头盔顶甲件火枪杆火铳只火箭枚火炮门装备守卫北京的明军兵马未动粮草先行北京一下子多出这么多增援部队必须提前解决粮食问题由于大运河的运输通州是京城粮草主要囤积地仓米数百万石可充京军一岁饷这么多粮食不动员十几万人根本搬不回来打北京保卫战确实也用不了这么多粮食但蒙古骑兵从来都是就食当地运不回来也要毁掉除了付费请老百姓运粮令所有来京增援部队路过通州时自行到通州取粮超额多带粮食到北京的还有赏钱大军从通州一过顺手就把通州的粮食搬空了土木惨败后瓦剌并未乘胜直捣京师而是几次在宣府大同等边镇勒索财物使朝廷得到个月的喘息时间在北京保卫战中于谦特别重视谍报工作英宗刚随也先大营走远于谦就得到线报马上下令前线大炮轰击不必投鼠忌器主动出击不向也先示弱几场城门伏击战打消了也先速胜梦天寒地冻各地亲王大军纷纷开拔也先遂拔营北遁北京城保住了储位拉锯得知英宗被俘后孙太后命朱祁钰监国一天后又想立两岁的朱见深为太子她的如意算盘是英宗若能脱险归来皇位自然还是自己儿子的若有万一皇位也只能是她孙子的避免朱祁钰生母吴氏母以子贵但土木之变后文官集团爆发出清洗内廷势力宦官和锦衣卫的政治诉求与潮流局势发展已超出孙太后的控制宣宗一生只有个儿子但由于出身朱祁钰母子在宫外生活在明朝藩王不得参与朝政如果没有土木之变软弱的朱祁钰母子肯定可以平静度过一生事情的发展却将其推到了前台此时朱祁钰年方岁正春秋鼎盛太后扶他上马也有条件景帝只在特殊情况下代任其位不得改变皇统世系死后仍由朱见深继承后朱祁钰改易太子将朱祁镇的儿子换成自己的儿子于谦勉强签字改换太子后朱祁钰笼络朝臣给官员发双倍薪水于谦又推辞不受明代有人指责于谦不谏言景泰帝易储之事王世贞指出大家想多了这是皇帝的家室汉高帝想废太子刘盈改立刘如意张良都不敢开口直谏凭什么认为于谦就能说服景泰帝夺门之变夺门之变实质是孙太后朱祁镇与朱祁钰的政治斗争于谦执掌兵部总督十团营阻止发起的人不难难的是如何善后朱祁钰当时病危其即位的合法性来自孙太后的敕书而不是其父宣宗在病危之际孙太后复立朱祁镇当然也合法要彻底否定这个合法性只有废黜孙太后将谋逆的朱祁镇废为庶人再赐死如何面对未来登基的朱见深此时朱祁钰病危没有子嗣改立的太子早亡如果于谦当日有所行动他就不再是于谦而是王莽曹操司马昭南宫复辟当日凌晨景泰帝听闻朝堂钟鼓大作大惊问左右曰是于谦吗左右告之是上皇复辟了病榻上的朱祁钰知道自己政治生命了结了眼神空洞嘴中无奈念叨哥哥做好好于谦用人只看才能功绩不看出身得罪了不少大臣勋贵南宫复辟同时于谦被当场逮捕朱祁镇说于谦可是有功之人他知道若非于谦主持战局击退也先自己怎么可能回到北京呢此时逆臣走到朱祁镇面前说不杀于谦今日之事无名少年苦读时于谦就写下著名的石灰吟刚直无畏性格已经罄露抄家官兵冲进于谦宅邸只见正室被封得严严实实里面珍藏的是从宣宗开始开始几位皇帝赐他的东西对于于谦的死天下无不冤之于少保和岳武穆都是胸怀天下之人是民族脊梁国家之魂可惜都低估了周遭的恶意土木堡后的瓦剌与鞑靼瓦剌首领也先将英宗送还北京结束了与明朝的战争后来在北京城的夺门之变发生之前瓦剌统治集团内部倒是率先爆发了一系列血腥的内讧也先虽当时声震大漠南北名义上他也只是蒙古汗廷内的太师比起黄金家族的岱总汗即太宗汗脱脱不花仍矮一头也先无法将大汗变成自己的傀儡因为他们分营而治天高皇帝远但权臣与英主的冲突如箭在弦面临摊牌瓦剌为了控制大汗早将也先的姐姐嫁给大汗充当线人其子理当继承汗位不甘充当傀儡的脱脱不花却不买账决心立另一个妻子所生的儿子为太子无可调和景泰二年脱脱不花率先发难也先初战不力但不久用离间计瓦解了对方军队最后杀死了这位大汗也先下令大杀黄金家族后人忽必烈直系后裔在这场劫难里几乎被斩尽杀绝盛极而衰也先自立大元田盛大可汗用北元大汗脱古帖木儿年号表露出继承元朝大统的意思以非黄金家族身份窃据蒙古大汗之位做到这一点的唯有也先一人可惜好景不长不到一年时间也先兵败身死不是只有黄金家族不能称汗的天命而是也先避不开创业者的顽疾做到共患难做不到共富贵也先对草原的统治能依靠的只是瓦剌的军事集团里面的阿喇知院是其得力助手也先称汗后太师之位空出来了但也先来了个内举不避亲把位子给了自己儿子且为了削弱阿喇的势力也先派人暗杀阿喇两个儿子如此一来其不反也得反了结局是也先和阿喇先后都被杀鞑靼各部拥立脱脱不花幼子为汗瓦剌部众退居西北旧巢黄金家族再次定鼎草原瓦剌因内讧而衰鞑靼内部也四分五裂年换了三位大汗随着年满都古勒汗的去世忽必烈嫡系只剩一个大约岁的孩童巴图蒙克满都古勒汗遗孀满都海夫人登上历史舞台身兼母亲妻子辅臣三项重任成为蒙古族历史上著名的巾帼英雄巴图蒙克号称达延汗也就是大元汗后来再次统一了草原异姓领主专权的局面也被扭转不复存在不安定因素全部解决后开始分封诸子今日内蒙古行政区域图仍看到达延汗分封的痕迹达延汗的子孙们开始了画地住牧的生活这有利于减少鞑靼内部冲突但游牧经济很快遇到它的瓶颈畜群增长要求增补饲料牧地剩余产品也需要找到渠道交换绸缎绢布乃至锅釜针线等生活用品当时蒙古地区最有势力的首领是土默特部的阿勒坦又音译为俺答金子的意思第一个问题通过向西武力扩张解决征讨瓦剌迫使其进一步西迁至阿尔泰山一带西海成为土默特的领地第二个问题通过与中原贸易来解决在隆庆年间开市和通贡终于实现前面嘉靖年间一直互打不同意开市随着互市的开展许多喀尔喀部乃至瓦剌领主也派遣商队以漠南各地领主名义到马市民市月市进行贸易土默特部趁机做生意抽贸易税或物资高价转售从中取利俺答的营帐地库库和屯逐渐成为漠南蒙古手工业和商业中心这座蒙古语里的青色之城就是呼和浩特瓦剌的终局与俺答求贡类似瓦剌因为接近中原市场较困难对阿姆河与锡尔河间的农区市场需求就很迫切经常袭扰伊犁河谷瓦剌各部在达延汗攻击下败多胜少步步西退为了结盟在世纪年代公推和硕特部首领为汗再经过长期演变瓦剌各部归并为准格尔和硕特土尔扈特杜尔伯特四大部各部的领袖领地有限的矛盾无法调和在距离也先时代过去年后又开始组织大反攻企图恢复旧有荣光年土尔扈特部占领乌拉尔河伏尔加河流域年和硕特部入主青海西藏地区但在东戈壁地区遇到了清朝大炮在叶尼塞河遇到了莫斯科连发枪世纪遭遇世纪不再是势均力敌最后一次蒙古帝国在上升的时候倾覆了因为它是过时的事物了明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么明和北宋当时完全是两码事北宋的覆灭方式和历朝历代相比都是相当炸裂的类比放在明朝也是朱祁镇留学之后明朝打输北京保卫战才对味靖康发生距离宋朝建立不过余年这个时间节点放在明朝道长还在忙着和大臣讨论亲爹的事放到清朝才是嘉庆九年太上皇清纯帝刚去世五年不到所以北宋结束时还算个身体强健的中年人被流氓来了一闷棍脑震荡在床上躺着不能动虽身体没以前那么好了但再勉强活几年还是没问题的至于明朝到后来展现出来的情况和历朝土地兼并到了不可调和的状态是一样的大一统封建王朝和西方殖民主义那套不同建立后的主要经历不是对外扩张和掠夺而是地主阶级在国家内部去压榨农民天之道损有余而补不足人之道损不足而奉有余每个朝代运行一段时间后都会发现少部分人太有余而大部分人太不足这个时候若统治者遵循天道那就要去损有余而补不足从而让社会达到一个相对平衡的状态如果继续遵循人道问题就积累走到的地步这个考验的并不是想怎么选而是你还有没有能力选就像大明最后老百姓都凄风苦雨逼上绝路国库也没钱军饷都发不出但以私产输助官饷的建议遭到文武百官的强烈抵制提建议的官员被打入大牢崇祯也被这么激烈的场面吓的断了这个念想不了了之既然不能遵循天道那自然就有别人来替天行道了官僚代表地主团体通过朝廷这个架子去吸收百姓的赋税等收不上来的时候就需开始自救打击官僚勋贵就是看地主阶级能不能有人愿意吐点东西出来等这些人没东西往外拿了新一批轮回就开始了明朝把这条路已经走完了属于一个老人器官衰竭浑身上下已经到了什么都不可以正常维持的状态早走晚走就是一两天的事器官衰竭大脑再怎么下指令其它的器官也干不动了所以朱由检跑哪里都一样南明也属于傀儡因为南方那些反清的人互相也看不顺眼精力都放在内讧上所以南明也没撑多久明朝迁不迁根本不重要清纯帝被儿子恶心原本在庙号体系中有功者称组有德者称宗不是所有皇帝都能有庙号如两汉四百多年个皇帝只有个有庙号西汉太祖高帝太宗文帝世宗武帝中宗宣帝太高中世都是顶级字眼都不是普通君主能拿到的庙号原不能当谥号来用谥号字多夸的骂的好的惨的什么形容都有包罗万象存在的目的就是为了评价君主而庙号是没有评价功能的原本就是给那些有代表性杰出贡献的人才能用的只不过唐代之后谥号注水严重几乎除了亡国之君都是好谥号已经起不到评价君主的功能了这会儿庙号也是严重超发人手一个就导致了庙号反而起到了评价君主好坏的作用判断的方法也不是让你看字而是看同样的庙号上一个使用者是什么德性也就是所谓的判例法六味地黄丸唐中宗使中宗不爱有人用了被老妈收拾被老婆绿最后据说被女儿毒死瞬间贬值再没人用过都觉得晦气宋朝的徽钦度理持有者一个赛一个拉胯有爷俩组团出国访问回不来的有去世后脑袋被做法器的有智商低下荒淫无道亡国南宋的他们悲催的遭遇也让这些庙号全都是一次性使用后世明清帝王用庙号就可看出来君主本身有无问题明英宗听起来挺好但上一位元英宗死在南坡之变只不过他平安跑回来了不然得给他安个徽钦都可以历史上的高宗除了十全老人再上一位就是宋高宗完颜构再前面的重量级唐高宗虽开疆拓土但有治家不严的形象大宋火种金国忠臣赵构这形象太突出了不仅杀了岳飞还对金国称臣总被金国人骂哭让高宗名声扫地嘉庆这么搞也是因为父子关系着实一般乾隆与赵构一样都做过太上皇禅让后对儿子是指手画脚不仅让他给早就死去的哥哥下跪行礼对其能力也是各种质疑总觉得这个接班人没选好还向天公开许愿如果这个儿子没选好就让老天爷早点取其性命收回去再换一个上来本来乾隆开疆拓土假谦虚想要个祖字的可儿子偏偏装糊涂就给个宗还扔了一个高宗上去且乾隆本人生前偏偏最看不起宋高宗也算是唯一可以抱负老爹的机会了晚清塑料姐妹花两宫皇太后慈禧母以子贵但和慈安相比始终还是有嫡庶之别慈禧也心知肚明辛酉政变为防止辅政八大臣权力过大咸丰临终前将自己两枚私章御赏同道堂分给慈安和皇子特别规定凡是皇帝谕旨起首要盖御赏结尾盖同道堂方可生效皇帝的决策没有慈安的批准就不能生效而当时皇子载淳只岁故印章就落入慈禧手中安排是完善的两宫地位虽然崇高但她们充其量是拥有了否决权但议程权力掌握在八大臣手中八大臣也认为两宫不应过问谕旨更不能改否则就是母鸡报晓但两宫不会妥协挡在她们前面的只有一道后宫不得干政的祖宗家法八大臣也不退了在朝堂上纠党忿争声震殿陛直接把小皇帝吓尿了尿了慈安一身此后恭亲王坚定支持两宫太后发动辛酉政变将八大臣一网打尽抢儿子的矛盾两宫太后垂帘的很长一段时间内并没有爆发宫廷斗争慈安在世时慈禧深知自己妃子出身与正宫娘娘慈安不能相提并论事事恭谨年内二人只在三件事上闹出公开化的矛盾第一件事是慈禧宠爱的太监安德海案杀他的上谕由慈安签发可能是对慈禧专断已久的不满借恭亲王和丁宝桢的势头给慈禧当头一棒第二件事是同治帝即位时很小和温柔的慈安比较亲近与忙于政务强势精明的慈禧比较疏远慈禧很不高兴第三件事是同治皇后人选的问题他不喜欢亲妈慈禧相中的女子反而选中慈安相好的阿鲁特氏为皇后导致慈禧的不满公开化野史毒害也仅仅是野史光绪六年慈禧得了重病卧病在床慈安垂帘听政这段时间慈禧很少露面第二年春慈安感寒停饮偶尔违和身体不太舒服没有引起重视不料在第二天夜里突然去世年仅岁臣子们听说时还以为是重症卧床的慈禧感到不可思议还有一些秘史传出吃了慈禧送的点心而死说有先帝密诏要慈安监督慈禧但老实人慈安却将此事告知慈禧并当着慈禧的面烧掉密诏写这本秘史书崇陵传信录的惲毓鼎在慈安去世时连举人都没考中省城都没去过几回上哪打听宫城秘史慈安由病到亡前后不到两天有清史学者认为慈安死于心血管病症慈禧生了重病听政的负担全部压到性情温和的慈安身上事无巨细都要她决定压力陡增原来慈安只对大事拍板慈禧长于处理具体事务按记载言慈安有选择恐惧症见大臣呐呐如无语者或竟月不决一事但慈安轻易不下决策做的决策天下百姓都称赞忽一死故各种谣言风行海内全然放飞慈安之死给慈禧解除了最后一道权力紧箍垂帘逐步到纱幕拿掉再到同坐御塌俨如宋仁宣故事盖前此所未有也丧权辱国难以理解乎近代史清廷腐败无能可能看得大家头晕生气大家之所以生气是潜意识里将满清认作是自己人哀其不幸怒其不争其实只要不把他当作自己人思考他的一切所为顿时就合理起来了大清不是蠢就是单纯的坏中日甲午战争时日本也还是农业国日本历史上第一个钢铁厂八幡制铁所建于年正是拿马关条约的赔款才得以兴建完成工业革命成为强国甲午战争时当时西方预测日本将败毕竟其战争资源极其有限日本发布开诚忠告十八省豪杰书试图号召汉人反清复明声称天与不取反受其咎卿等速起勿为明组所笑这一招真正让慈禧慌了神害怕了转而把保住满清自己的权利放在了最重要的位置起用投降派官员请洋人介入调停战争通过外交谈判慈禧也放下了心因为她了解到日本的根本目标只是要赔款和土地并不是要推翻清政府对大清和慈禧而言钱财和土地民族尊严都只是小事只要能保住权势和地位一切都可以商量所以才有量中华之物力结与国之欢心反正不是自己的东西卖起来一点都不心疼历代的教训先秦商朝因为将过多军队派出去开荒前提老找诸侯要钱要人去开荒而忽略了首都的防御被周部族一举偷家灭国纣王应该是祭祀觉得平民羌人不行得拿贵族诸侯来祭祀才有效而不是昏弃厥肄祀所以被反当然周武王立国年就噶了留下弟弟周公辅政建洛阳护西安自己的儿子所在周王痛定思痛改换策略让诸侯出去开拓疆土在京畿要地周围分封安排自己家人自己则留守大本营此做法前期可谓是一帆风顺然而随着分封越来越多慢慢便不满足自己的一亩三分地开始互相征伐最后连周王室也不放在眼里了结果诸侯坐大灭国秦汉最终秦国做大做强统一了天下看到商周的下场认为都是诸侯的错选择另辟蹊径走前无仅有的中央集权郡县制不分封了哪来诸侯造反权力掌控在中央分派流官管理地方避免地方官吏做大做强结果流官没有与帝国同存亡的觉悟一点不忠诚光速投降换个主子继续当流官作为流官出身的刘邦继续吸取秦朝的经验觉得还是有必要分封诸侯但诸侯得是自己亲儿子即便天下大乱不管谁赢天下还在刘氏手中可低估了权利带来的欲望权利过大皇权就受到威胁权利过小就容易把他们逼向造反结果就爆发了七王之乱到了武帝想想咱还是搞郡县制度心不齐的问题让儒家宣传造神并将矛头一致对外赫赫战功解决民众和官员的归属感却没注意有外戚内鬼这个内鬼就是王莽篡了孙女婿的位西汉亡到了东汉小皇帝不知道该信谁了在外戚门阀压力下认为太监没根最不可能造反可太监掌权后更不让人省心借权肆意妄为天下鸡犬不宁紧接着爆发了大规模的起义朝廷掌控不了局面就将权利下放给地方自行解决结果叛乱解决了地方又做大了皇帝也成了军阀的掌中玩物各路军阀一顿征战最终被司马家族偷了家魏晋南北朝隋唐两晋南北朝包括隋唐开始探索新道路可编纂为一本论皇帝的花样死法之前的禅让皇帝还能善终司马家族再次汲取曹魏的教训认为曹魏灭亡由于皇族太过衰弱魏文帝大肆打压家族势力才给了他人偷家机会于是晋朝就冒天下之大不讳大肆分封自己家族成员以壮大势力相当于回到了分封制度很快报应就来了八王之乱降低了晋朝的实力被外族偷家灭国在南北对立局面很久后隋最终一统天下再次汲取前面的教训认为很多朝代灭亡在于世家大族权利过大威胁到了皇权于是便决定削除老牌贵族势力诞生了科举制度通过选举有能者居之然而这种做法大大削弱了老牌贵族的势力在世家大族的推动下加上隋炀帝的过度消耗所引发的一系列问题很快民怨沸腾最终被唐取代唐在逐步落实科举制的同时走汉的路数对外军功随着土地兼并领土大摊子难以激励维系不转向防守转而对抗进攻财政上不堪重负衍生出了一个新的官职节度使可没想到边镇军力过强节度使权利过大直接造了皇帝的反叛乱虽被平息但大唐已开始走下坡路了最终被朱温篡取政权天下继续进入混乱时期五代十国乱了几十年直到北宋的建立宋元明宋吸取前朝各种教训首先军队集中到首都既防偷家又防地方武装力量造反饯行重文轻武的方针打压武人武将空有一身力气本领无用武之地大规模科举挑动平民与世家互斗再次太监后宫不得干政做了所有自认为正确的事情可大肆打压武将造成忽略了外敌最终被一群游牧民族取代朱明再次汲取前面的经验教训重点加了防外敌首都也迁往了边防站搞个天子守国门防外族和看家二合一这次外敌被安排的老老实实的最终却后院起火被农民起义军一举偷家清清朝再次吸取教训处理内在问题和外在隐患农民起义都没闹出什么幺蛾子疆域也开拓的够大于是当时的统治者格外自信连前来通商的外邦都打发了回去清在历代中央集权制度下国家治理问题做的最好除了制度顽疾贪腐注定解决不了其它问题都克制的不错争夺储位的问题被解决了外戚宦官藩王都没有民族问题解决的最好的民生新增人丁永不加赋看似海内生平农业帝国在此情况下则不思进取没有改革动力不像工业社会不断要开发新东西农业经济没什么新产品要做可没想到海那边科技正如火如荼的发展最终问题就来自海外鸦片战争被降维打击被外国联军强开大门我们的经验教训又多了一条落后就要挨打真理只在大炮的射程之内从南向北统一难南北之间不是地理差异也不是骑兵水军的差异能成功的都是新政权讨伐旧势力新陈代谢整个中国的历史是以新统旧南方通常是一个旧政权跑过去的华北难守就往淮河长江以南跑黄河太行山一突破一马平川呵呵了基于旧政权的底子哪怕中兴一下还是不够有生命力这些人本身就是安逸惯了的才被打到南边的安逸富足就享受想他们一下子就洗心革面不现实如东晋南宋就没有一个新开创王朝的生机勃勃的样子史观国家的内容是什么国家的内容是人民知识分子的臭毛病就是把残酷的历史审美化天下兴亡匹夫有责国家兴亡匹夫无责汉唐什么盛世唐巅峰人口版图比现在还大一直边患用兵去时里正与裹头归来头白还戍边汉武帝人口大军北击匈奴步兵骑兵这里面精兵可能辅兵万后勤兵预计有万加上全面的后勤加上武帝用兵年在位年几乎全国男人都得参与进去被俘了失踪了全家则抄没为奴打完匈奴全国人口减半看汉乐府当兵要当一辈子十五从军征八十始得归道逢乡里人家中有阿谁都太残忍了中国历史的解读特别拿人民不当人的时候当盛世把自己放在帝王世家的角度解读历史都把自己带入秦皇汉武低一点就带入霍去病其实更多是战死沙场的小兵文治武功文治商鞅的改革制度设计才叫文治能对历史和未来人的思想社会的结构利益分配做改变才叫文治武功开朝代开疆拓土文治比武功更难汉文帝宋仁宗只是内政牛掰的帝王干内政保姆肯定也能干好只是他们干了更难的事宋的科举文官制度对当今影响很大但也亡了天下不是重整乱局的情况一般是先有文治才有武功汉唐为何那么暴躁因为国家只有一个上升路去打仗牛掰的人都去打仗了宋朝都去考试了可是武功就悲剧了民族代码为中华民族写过底层代码搭架子的人周公孔子老子商鞅秦皇汉武宋祖科举文治朱重八再统北方但也设计了很多不好的制度近代就是教员写入马克思主义额外参考百家号日落长安终结大唐盛世的边患藩镇与宦官',
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额外参考学历史不是记时间那叫记事本存储器得有纵向跨时空的穿插和逻辑先秦的棋谱人文家国历久弥新从周代的历史缩影都能窥见后代棋局的棋谱大意周朝时间年最长占文明史长奠定了华夏的重要根基相当于南宋成吉思汗到清四个朝代年到今天的距离军政层面从东周迁到洛阳开始周王朝的发迹之地事实上转移到了秦国名下前期春秋冶铁科技水平不高各位权贵亲戚封地间有很多的缓冲地带随着改造自然能力增强大家的胃口和冲突都变大了韩赵魏三家分晋后历史迈入战国时代诸侯纷争攻伐掠夺礼乐崩塌社会通行的法则就是在武力基础上建立的社会语法剑戟说话经济层面魏国占的土地恰是尧舜禹建立都城的河东之地都是围绕山西运城盐池而建都拥有解池的盬盐而成为文明的发祥之地黄帝蚩尤大战也是为了争夺这个盐池管子的治国理念就是要实行君权对国家经济的垄断性经营对国家的一切社会财富实行有组织有计划的控制只有实行了利出一孔国家才会无敌整个战国时期各国王权已无余力调和国家和民生的羹汤发展到最后权贵阶层和财富阶层混为一体在私营商业势力大为膨胀的背景下由赵而秦由商入朝的吕不韦反映的正是那个时代商人们发达升迁的路线为商官群像的一个历史缩影可只有秦国真正实现了盐铁的专营解池盐卤之地巴蜀的盐尽收秦国之手辅以盐铁专营秦国的强大已无可阻挡新大一统通常短命后跟一个长命的王朝简单解读是终结乱世容易膨胀听不进劝秦如此晋如此隋亦如此削藩也是手艺活汉高帝削藩刘邦最终击败项羽称帝前所封的诸侯都是盟友而非属下而项羽小气不愿分封绥靖各方被迫面对无休止的游击战刘邦削藩的成功关键是在获得压倒性优势之前完全隐藏自己的意图隐藏到韩信英布这种顶尖人物都心存侥幸击败项羽后马上开始了自己的削藩行动关键第一步是把整个齐地纳入自己的管控中借口让韩信衣锦还乡把韩信从齐地改封到项羽的西楚故地不露痕迹地取得齐地控制权分封给自己的儿子从此之后叛乱者都要面对齐地和关中两个地方的强力夹击中央政府获得了显著的地缘优势第二步是控制韩信统治下的西楚国故地韩信政治能力实在不敢恭维不具一个有能力问鼎天下的气度甚至作为一个诸侯王也不及格先是打擦边球可能感觉到刘邦对其不放心私自收留项羽的高级将领结果刘邦一较真却怂了这种主动露怯让刘邦占据了极大的主动最后刘邦用陈平之计诱捕韩信把他的楚王废掉将楚国领土封给了自己的两个亲戚等刘邦把齐楚燕三个国家的辖区封给自己人后刘邦对其它异性藩王的优势已经是决定性的了剩下所有的异性诸侯加在一起也不是刘邦的对手用最小的代价逐渐用自己家族成员取代原来的异性王后世典型的反面案例清康熙康熙高喊削亦反不削亦反的口号典型的冲动型人格朝鲜使臣记载其青壮年时期性燥急多暴怒逼反了本来态度游离的耿尚二藩创下一个历史记录被以云南为基地的叛乱势力席卷了半个中国虽然吴三桂的败局是注定的他年龄大劣势名声差叛军三心二意如果玄烨有刘邦的政治智慧吴三桂掀不起那么快的风浪不过他很快察觉到自己的失策在三藩叛乱后手忙脚乱地宣称暂缓撤耿尚二藩后期成功分化了三位藩王明建文比起建文帝的操作他的小失误不算个事在朱元璋都做好制度性安排藩王主动叛乱成功可能性为的情况下朱允炆偏偏觉得自己比爷爷和刘邦更聪明往死里逼毫无威胁的藩王们成了两千年间唯一被藩王造反推翻的大一统王朝君主靖难之役背后的深层矛盾建文就是朱允炆建立文治的坚定决心但他的新政反而为政权崩塌埋下伏笔区别于洪武时期的严猛治国建文强调自己的宽和对祖制进行了不同程度的改动最明显的是从重武轻文到尊佑右文教的转型如大明律明确规定文官不能封公侯建文登基后为进一步提高文官地位特意将六部尚书升为正一品任用文官作为决策核心这种调整使那些认同祖制的人特别是一些藩王及武臣难以接受重文轻武的政治倾向下必然招致上下军官群体的不满其军队频频失利或许与此有关在朱标死后到立朱允炆为皇太孙的半年时间内可以想象朱棣为储君之位下过不小的力气拉拢了一批王侯武将虽然最后争位失败但拉拢的人却为靖难之役胜利奠定了基础本身开国第一功臣徐达的长女为燕王妃的姻缘安排就增添了朱棣在武将集团中的声望再加上他战功最为显赫与众多武将结下深厚情谊手下聚集一批能征善战的将领通州遵化密云的指挥使率部投降也是力证朝中武将也多有倾心如大舅子徐达之子徐增寿时任左都督多次通报北境京师虚数反观建文集团主要力量是苏浙赣皖地区的文官与朝中武将观念相对不合朱棣即位次日便下令奚复旧制洪武时期武将尚未被文官压倒但在建文时代严重以来文官集团激进推行新政抬高文官地位必然引起武官群体不满在争夺皇权的表面背后是明前期政治演进过程中矛盾冲突的产物是尚武到尚文两种治国理念的交锋两汉时光西汉初年刘邦鉴于秦朝土崩瓦解的教训使用郡国制是符合潮流的但文景之治之后刘家血缘关系疏远尾大不掉武帝削藩的必要条件随之成熟但西汉末年后武帝矫枉过正的策略又显出了负面效应豪族缺少刘姓制约开始雨后春笋生长导致王莽篡汉发生王莽激进不成熟的改革导致豪族的翻脸进而支持刘秀东汉开始刘秀只是借豪族的手减少了人口压力缓解了资源分配的压力但其没有武帝和刘邦的觉悟或不敢没有从源头上清洗豪族这直接导致刘氏无法全面掌握主动权演变成外戚专权豪族平衡天下的局面三国志上演也成了必然武帝为何没像秦朝一样崩溃大家常说武帝继承殷实家底可景帝平定七国之乱时还要向商贾借钱伴随几十年的休养生息无为而治的另外一面就是不抑制土地兼并到武帝时期地方上土地兼并和豪强林立已非常严重了再加上北方匈奴的胃口一天天变大强敌环伺总结来说是个危局所以毛的评价文景守成庸主幸承乱后人口稀少固有假象刘彻乃真雄主改制度获罪天下晚年省己犹不失明对内刘老板为了筹措天价的军费不论是基层百姓贩夫走卒还是商贾豪强皇亲贵族都如同韭菜般被刘彻挥舞镰刀收割了一茬又一茬成为巅峰对决的养料盐铁专营先是剥夺了全体大富绅豪强们的赚取暴利的生计然后从全民手里收间接税再通过算缗告缗没收绝大多数有产人的田宅现金和奴隶掌握铸币权无差别收割天下所有人对外消灭对汉民族生存构成威胁的敌对势力匈奴被打的漠南五王庭前后斩首俘虏壮年人口断层羌人被驱逐南越被灭国朝鲜被灭国还有一众西域小国被灭领土直接扩大一倍获得大量可开垦的土地尖锐的人地矛盾被极大缓解虽然老百姓过得不好为国家战争做准备全阶层不仅老百姓都为生存慌不择路焦头烂额但阶层流动性几乎是西汉年间最强的在那个年代做到了唯才是举之后到宋代大规模科举之前都是世家门阀掌权的时代内部那些听调不听宣的勋贵大商人地方豪强也被彻底碾碎各地曾经的封国也已名存实亡这个曾经磕磕绊绊的国家也被整成了一个整体每个人都被武帝的厚赏麻痹神经也都为自己的生态位焦虑的不能自拔随着汉匈战争的结束民力疲敝但汉朝外部威胁被彻底剪灭让汉成为了一个民族的名字给了一个名族前所未有的尊严最后下罪己诏将罪责揽于一身休养民生在这一基础上出现的昭宣中兴也就顺理成章了给到我们的启示是任何伟大事业的成就都需要在理想主义和现实主义集体荣耀和个体命运间找到那个鲜血淋漓的平衡点西汉吊打东汉西汉周期性清洗顶层贵族地方豪强敢于对各种顶层动刀子不断腾空无用只能食利的顶层位置然后用军功激发中层士人的活力所以大汉从生强到死不断扩张三国分裂了还能吊打周边的唯一一个铁血朝代陵邑制淘汰清理豪强白鹿酌金清理贵族军功制筛选底层东汉不敢明目张胆搞领导淘汰制了所以没西汉能打但军功制仍在连三国都巨能打三国时代文化形态斗争东汉的权柄拉扯战王莽和一群知识分子搞了一次开天辟地的政治实验依照周礼来改造衰亡中的帝国帝国不出意外地被这帮胆大心急眼高手低的理论派搞垮了重整山河的光武帝刘秀吃一堑长一智不敢再相信书生依靠南阳颍川河北豪强势力拥戴上位为了羁縻笼络这些豪强就和他们结成姻亲刘秀不敢触动已根深蒂固的豪强势力只好让他们以血统参股的方式共享帝国的最高权力但刘秀的妥协从一开始就给东汉帝国埋了雷皇位两传之后姻亲舅爷便反客为主靠挟持外甥而成为帝国的实际主人外甥皇帝当然也不服气又依靠身边的宦官发动反击从舅爷手中夺回权力公公们的下层寒门盟友商人和庶族地主奸商老财的子弟走读书出路参与国家政治仍然是不容易的因为要是读书的料早投到书生主流阵营中去所以公公索性忽悠皇帝为自己的盟友打开另一扇方便之门卖官鬻爵让那些有经济实力和社会影响力却不具备做官资格的人通过这种特殊方式参与到国家政治中来这个市场在洛阳宫苑的西园后世称为西园卖官东汉中后期的历史就是一场外戚和宦官轮番把持帝国权柄的乱战乱战中书生们只能跑跑龙套他们中的佼佼者朋比牵引逐渐上升为学阀世家世代相继把持着对经书文义的阐释权这就和中世纪欧洲僧侣扮演的角色差不多了大家玩的是同一套把戏通过加强意识形态工作让被统治者变得更加驯服从而降低统治成本经学和文学从学阀统治下分离在外戚当权的时代里舅爷总会装出一副礼贤下士的样子邀请有社会影响力的学阀出来做官书生虽会做出各种姿态到底扛不住千钟粟和颜如玉的真香定理罢了为了天下苍生老夫就入世走一遭吧或者经费不够学生们吃了老夫还是去找大将军申领点皇粮吧正统的书生和公公显然不可能做好朋友公公们和下层寒门盟友同盟成为既有秩序的破坏者既要从舅爷手里抢皇帝又要从学阀手里抢编制或者叫经费还要跟世家大族争做土豪在意识形态领域公公们虽出身寒微但脑子并不傻成立一个鸿都门学的大学堂与正统派大本营三万太学生抗衡和太学里那些捣鼓经学钻研政治和党争的正统派不同鸿都门学学术专业要平和得多他们研究诗歌辞赋绘画书法这些修身养性的东西从这时起经学和文学就算分了家穿越到东汉中后期的洛阳城千万别随便跟人谈论诗歌当然你碰到曹操除外黄巾之乱儒生知道子不语怪力乱神但公公们不同他们不但相信残缺的身体往往还驱使他们更迫切地寻找灵魂寄托黄巾之乱爆发时汉灵帝发现他宠信的公公中居然有两个太平道的信徒正准备为信仰去出卖他和他的帝国皇帝愤怒了但手里没其它力量可用只得走回用外戚的老路请自己的大舅子何进来担任大将军负责全国的剿匪行动靠平息黄巾之乱重新回到政治舞台的舅爷和书生联盟自然地要求帝国政治重新洗牌以袁绍为首的正统派坚决要求根除宦官势力双方冲突激化非你死我活不能了结灵帝去世双方立刻发生火并先是宦官诱杀大将军何进随后何进手下的袁绍等人又尽杀宦官双方两败俱伤皇权的两大支柱一块完蛋帝国顷刻崩溃乱世烽烟曹魏爱写诗蜀汉多论文诗经中就有四言诗正统派还能容忍至于五言诗在他们看来不啻于离经叛道以青青河畔草为代表的汉末无言古诗十九首几乎可以肯定是出自鸿都门学文人群体之手青青河畔草的后文昔为倡家女今为荡子妇荡子行不归空床难独守之语鸿都门学开创了五言诗与文学艺术化的先河这个文人群体有过短暂的辉煌但随即湮灭在汉末兵火中灵魂与肉体竹简与诗歌都在十常侍之乱和董卓毁洛阳的劫难中灰飞烟灭建安七子领导的五言诗崛起从此文学尤其是诗歌登堂入室成为艺术曹操还写了不少颇有影响力的四言诗如步出夏门行曹丕曹植就以五言诗为主了曹家本是公公之后又处在挑战正统皇权的地位自然也不惮于引领一群邺下文人群体再多搞出个文学革命来了反观正统派人设的蜀汉文人群体他们就绝不写诗更不会写五言诗他们只写出师表陈情表仇国论这样铿锵有力的议论文曹魏写诗蜀汉议论原来如此曹魏的运气董卓迁都长安后讨董联盟的诸侯们开始火并北方的幽州名将公孙瓒开始了他的扩张之路他在多年的对抗鲜卑乌桓的战事中积累了大量经验有包括白马义从的精锐骑兵队实力在河北首屈一指袁绍在冀州刺史让位给他袁绍原为渤海太守后与公孙瓒互有攻伐胜负甚至公孙瓒还略占上风为何袁绍后来居上呢公孙瓒始终有一个名不正言不顺的问题他不是幽州的行政长官受幽州牧刘虞的节制自然非常不对付而后公孙瓒杀害德高望重的刘虞此番作为致使士族都不能同他合作虽表面控制幽州但暗流涌动刘虞的子嗣刘和回到幽州搅动时局在鲍丘之战中公孙瓒的势力被悍将麹义给予歼灭性打击一蹶不振这距离公孙瓒俘杀刘虞势力达到巅峰不过两年时间对于志在控制河北的袁绍来说鲍丘之战后他野心的最大阻碍变成了实力相当的刘和及悍将麹义此二人均被袁绍除掉历史上虽没记载刘和的死因可能是动用了暗杀或毒杀的手段假装自然死亡总之是理应成为幽州牧的刘和从史书中彻底消失了官渡之战前阎柔和鲜于辅不约而同放弃之前联合对抗公孙瓒的盟友袁绍选择投靠曹操其原因应可能就是刘和之死对曹操来说刘虞系力量的加盟使得袁绍不但无法利用幽州资源对抗他还要腾出资源去防备可袁绍又有什么选择呢如果不对刘和麹义下黑手他连初步整合黄河以北都做不到只能说曹操的运气实在太好了南北朝与隋唐隋前乱世年隋建立标志着魏晋南北朝近年的乱世行将结束年后隋灭掉南方的陈朝重新实现中国大一统北周隋唐三个朝代的权力更替实际上是在关陇集团内部进行的更具体一点是在同一个婚姻圈子一堆亲戚间进行的杨坚建立的隋朝实际继承的是宇文泰家族控制的西魏北周政权完成的也是宇文泰家族未竟的统一大业年北魏分裂为东西魏这一段中国的演进如此北朝一统脉络北魏拓跋元孝武帝与高欢决裂自洛阳西逃关陇集团西魏北周宇文隋杨唐李孝武帝西逃长安几个月后被毒杀另立魏文帝好牌打稀烂的一支高欢另立孝静帝东魏北齐高南朝南梁萧侯景之乱南陈陈当时东魏占据中原最富庶之地河北一带是粮食和丝绢的高质产地而西魏的地盘除了关中平原大部分是贫瘠的黄土高原和沙漠地带东魏人口逾千万西魏人口不及千万东魏高欢家族掌控的军队超过万西魏宇文泰军队不及十分之一最终的输赢却是西魏实现了对东魏和南梁的逆袭北魏末年六镇起义在长达年的乱局中杀出了两大权臣家族一是高欢家族一是宇文泰家族高欢崛起更早当高欢拥立北魏孝武帝元修登位遥掌朝权时宇文泰还是关中地区实际控制者贺拔岳手下一员将领北齐高家鲜卑化的汉族政权起高楼高欢发迹比宇文泰早实力也更强他出生时家族已在怀朔镇生活三代成为鲜卑化汉人他还有个鲜卑名叫贺六浑他虽为六镇中最底层的人但相貌帅气相传他在城门站岗时被鲜卑豪族女儿娄氏看上了依靠妻子彩礼买了匹战马终于当上队主实现阶层首次上升而后轻财重土的高欢结交了许多同阶层朋友而后投靠掌握北魏朝政的尔朱兆很得尔朱兆赏识六镇兵很快集结到高欢麾下且其注重联合河北豪族武装创业程中通过一路的姻亲朋友乡里联盟的力量积攒准备与无能力的尔朱兆决裂两场决战后高欢胜出掌权年的尔朱兆兵败自杀高欢在自己岁时入洛阳另立新帝自己为大丞相太师居晋阳派心腹在邺城管理朝政高欢视孝武帝元修为傀儡而元修却视自己为君王借口南伐梁朝调兵遣将高欢听到风声进军洛阳孝武帝仓促投奔关中成为宇文泰自立对抗高欢的一张底牌宴宾客高欢治下东魏一直有胡汉矛盾和腐败问题两个大雷东魏稳定控制河北地区后高欢转而开始抑制汉族豪强此与宇文泰在关中吸收本地豪族打造关陇军工集团缔建胡汉共同体的做法形成强烈对比两位枭雄对待鲜卑化和汉化的根本态度决定了谁最终被历史选中高欢不信任汉人将他封闭的民族理念传给了下一代使得北齐在持续不断的内斗中走向了终点在腐败问题上高欢认为勋贵贪腐都是他们冒着生命危险打天下后应得的回报他只要求勋贵都他的家族保持忠诚其它一概不管且还有奇葩理由现三国分立他若厉行反腐会逼得功臣宿将投奔关中宇文泰或南方萧衍从他为贪腐辩护的这番理论来看虽称得上权谋大师在乱世中白手起家实现霸业但政治视野显得非常有限治理国家能力欠缺高欢做一个草莽大哥没有问题能让底下弟兄过上为所欲为的生活但做一个国家领导人则有待训练在高欢儿子正密谋禅代事宜时历史开了一个大玩笑一个厨子将政治天赋极高的高澄刺杀了前期装笨的弟弟高洋登上历史舞台父子两代三人经年努力取代元氏家族建立北齐王朝楼塌了高洋同样很有政治才干但在将北齐带到一个高度后开始彻底放飞自我将家族和人性中的恶释放出来了纵欲乱伦酗酒滥杀内斗连同高欢遗留的胡汉矛盾和贪腐所有问题一起爆发使得北齐成为历史上臭名昭著的禽兽王朝高欢家族精神气质表现尚武好侠嗜酒好色智商高情商欠缺子孙都具有卓越军事才能高洋就经常在战场上冲锋陷阵身先士卒表现十分勇猛也遗传了爱喝酒的基因但高欢自制力很好大事后饮酒必不过三杯而高洋则不然统治晚期只喝酒不吃饭岁的时候就饮酒过度暴毙且酒后嗜杀乱性乱性也是高欢家族一种病态高欢就收集了一众人妻在这方面儿子们比其父有过之无不及高澄先后与父亲两个妃子私通还强奸大将高慎妻子造成其叛逃西魏引发邙山大战还调戏奸污二弟高洋妻子故而高洋称帝后公然强奸哥哥妻子元氏另一个弟弟称帝后也逼奸二嫂高洋妻子乱伦之事已然乱套不仅如此还聚众淫乱史学家通常认为高氏家族自认鲜卑人并对汉化改革十分排斥视娶弟媳纳寡嫂等鲜卑民族习俗为正常之事高洋建立北齐后既需要宗室成员与怀朔勋贵维持军政统治又担心这些人权势膨胀对皇权构成威胁后期一项主要工作便是对宗室诸王进行打压先后以各种理由逼死自己的族叔两个弟弟而他暴毙后儿子的皇位第二年便被两个叔叔政变废掉借口是清君侧的弘农杨氏汉族辅政大臣恐威胁鲜卑人利益接班的高湛也跟其兄高洋一样酒色过度而死而后就是没完没了宗室内斗北周宇文家汉化的鲜卑政权宇文泰在贺拔岳突然遇害情况下成功接收其军团源于武川豪酉家族的出身个人的政治军事才能及在关陇地区年积累的口碑此时宇文泰远未能与高欢抗衡他需要与孝武帝联手取得政治合法性孝武帝不甘心接受被权臣操控的命运无时无刻不在希望借助不愿降服于高欢的军事势力在匡辅魏室的旗帜下宇文泰称霸关陇在孝武帝与高欢决裂后慌忙带领自己的人马西逃投奔宇文泰通过迎奉孝武帝迁都长安把高欢置于乱臣贼子的舆论高压下宇文泰的这招与以往曹操狭天子以令诸侯有异曲同工之妙收留逃亡皇帝北魏二分孝武帝本质上是一个权力欲望很强的年轻人宇文泰决定先下手秘密鸩杀了年仅岁的孝武帝改立好控制的元宝炬为帝此前高欢以孝武帝弃国逃跑为由改立元善见为帝并迁都邺城北魏正式分裂为东西魏从跟随贺拔岳进入关中到成为西魏实际掌权者仅用了不到年时间关陇改革历史上任何改革都指向富国强兵但历史上改革成少败多不少改着改着就把一个国家改没了宇文泰也开始操刀改革因为不改革西魏肯定亡离宇文泰最近的一场改革是北魏孝文帝主导的改革此场改革在北魏百年左右鲜卑贵族利益板结时进行以汉化为核心改革者是有魄力的但改完后北魏也乱了不到年就分裂成了东西魏宇文泰的这场改革涉及广泛政治经济军事文化无所不包其建立起来的各项制度成为北周隋朝唐朝的制度滥觞影响深远史学界认为隋唐帝国是北朝化的中国很大程度上指的是西魏制度的影响力府兵制尤其在军事制度上宇文泰建立的府兵制以及由此形成的关中本位政策深刻影响了此后多年的中国历史鲜卑化与汉化是北魏一直以来最为棘手的一对矛盾宇文泰的高明之处是从中找到了一条高明的道路实现了胡汉政策的有效结合而府兵制则是其胡汉政策结合的最重要内容东西魏分立时均以北魏六镇军事力量为基础立国只是宇文泰仅有武川镇一镇的军力这也是高欢动辄强势兵力碾压宇文泰的原因要改变军力不足的局面必须扩大兵力来源持续吸收关陇地区豪强的私有兵力及各方势力地方大族及其乡兵以汉族为主也解决了地方豪族拥兵自重尾大不掉的问题由于当时盛行军阀割据而鲜卑的军队部落属性很强基本只认各自的首领不认中央宇文泰还急需解决军权的中央集权化问题宇文泰采取了很高明的一招设置八柱国十二大将军的组织结构八柱国除宇文泰和元魏宗室代表元欣之外其余六人各督二大将军分掌禁旅合计十二大将军每个大将军各领开府二人每一开府各领一军合计二十四军柱国与大将军势力相互交错牵制有利于宇文泰进行最终的驾驭特别是各个柱国依次被任命为朝廷公卿身份由边镇将领变成开国元勋朝廷重臣逐渐脱离军旅生涯变相削弱了他们的军事实力实现了军权的初步集权化关中本位宇文泰将西迁的汉族将领籍贯一律改为关陇郡望给予大批出身寒微的汉将附会士族高门的机会并由此构建关中本位观念强化本地华戎族群的凝聚力和认同感从而与山东崤山以东江左争中原正统宇文泰家族很看重立足关中的周朝历史资源后来自立的政权干脆以周为国号这些都是胡汉融合关中化的体现改革收效府兵制的创建和完备在宇文泰手上前后历时年才完成最终西魏军队人数翻了一番府兵达到万人中央对军权实现了强有力的控制结束了地方割据私立林立的状态且府兵制是兵民分离的职业兵相比东魏北齐兵民合一的义务兵整体素质和战斗力更强运气爆棚面对东魏三路进攻西魏一些将领建议分兵把守诸道但若按此部署则使本来就处于弱势的西魏兵力更为分散极可能被各个击破宇文泰关键时刻做了一个赌徒式的判断赌高欢造浮桥渡河只是虚张声势实则掩护窦泰部从潼关趁虚而入那就先集中兵力消灭窦泰一路宇文泰放出烟雾弹扬言欲保陇右退还长安暗地率千骑兵东出日夜兼程很快抵达潼关附近窦泰听闻宇文泰军突至仓促应战宇文泰利用有利地形四面埋伏诱窦泰部陷入泥淖千弩齐发窦泰军死伤大半被俘万余人宇文泰在与高欢的心理博弈中押中了后者兵分三路的真实目的出奇兵以少胜多击败窦泰使得东魏军队全面撤退潼关之战后宇文泰以攻为守数次出兵侵蚀东魏领土而后的数次双方交战东魏都没占到便宜最后在围攻玉璧城山西稷山西南的战斗中人久攻天不克战死及病故者约人高欢忧愤成疾回到晋阳不久就病死了时年岁高欢死后他的儿子代东魏自立北齐政权被宇文泰家族的北周政权攻灭除开的努力东魏猛将侯景的搅局就是宇文泰那的运气东魏没高欢侯景早就称王称霸了高欢在世时侯景拥兵专制河南高欢病逝仅几日侯景就造反了但侯景的地盘属四战之地凭这个自立独自对抗三国哪一方都是很难的事在举起反旗的那一刻侯景就张罗找靠山了他首先想到的是西魏起初宇文泰觉得划算遂派兵去支援侯景宇文泰部将站出来劝谏说侯景这个人反复无常高欢一死便叛离怎么会忠于西魏呢他只是不愿作被困在池中的蛟龙想利用我们的军事支援罢了宇文泰一听甚觉有理才避免了一场惹火上身的大祸最终这枚苦果被梁武帝吞食了梁武帝被活活饿死而梁朝本有统一天下的可能经侯景之乱后变成了无力复兴任人宰割的弱国北齐和西魏都借机吃成了一个大胖子梁朝崩溃后梁武帝的子侄们陷入无尽的内斗让宇文泰看到了机会公元年荆襄成了西魏的地盘连荆襄以南的湘州湖南也一度被西魏拿下发展为三国中的头号强国综合实力在北齐之上不要说后来的陈朝了这段暴发史从侯景之乱算起不过六七年时间若不是梁武帝引入侯景自我毁灭宇文泰连关中都出不了这就叫机运在宇文泰生命中的最后几年被他牢牢地抓住了公元年宇文泰病逝年仅岁年宇文泰家族取代东魏自立建立北周北周被大隋摘了果子年后年宇文泰之子北周武帝宇文邕攻灭北齐统一北方年正当其打算平突厥定江南实现统一全国的时候却在出征前病逝年后杨坚篡北周自立拉开华夏第二帝国序幕距离宇文泰之死仅仅过去年七八年后中国一统离隋最近一次统一历程是西晋也是借前朝奠定的统一基础完成统一大业有所不同的是西魏立国时是最弱小的一方但也埋下了不安的种子就是统治者一直有心机的要削弱河东地区的人力河东豪族与关中地区一直有不安分的种子隋末大工程大战争安史之乱都有此背景侯景之乱的搅局运气萧衍老年痴呆梁武帝是老年痴呆还是聪明过头他对皇族成员和世族高门的确宽厚到不可思议的程度是对宋齐两朝皇族激烈内斗的矫枉过正但对民众犯罪惩罚极严且实行连坐一人逃亡全家都要被罚作苦工他是不是有圣母心收留侯景非也侯景冒充东魏政权写信试探梁武帝提出用侯景交换被俘虏的皇族萧渊明时他可是说立即就可以将侯景送回去请求梁武帝赐婚时梁武帝说王谢门第太高别妄想了可见心里并未把侯景当回事那么他纵容侯景筹备叛乱是怎么回事呢侯景是东魏开创者高欢的主要合作伙伴高欢死后侯景不愿继续做他儿子高澄的臣子反叛并向梁朝求援梁武帝就让自己的侄子萧渊明带兵支援侯景然而两拨人都败了萧渊明反被俘侯景只剩八百人渡过淮河进入梁朝境内淮南重镇寿阳城附近侯景得知自己可能会被梁武帝用来交换俘虏时果断以占据的寿阳为基地打着清君侧的旗号起兵造反梁武帝萧衍听说侯景叛乱呵呵大笑我只要折下一根树枝就能打死这小子实际上他是等待侯景反叛的寿阳是北魏末年局势大乱梁军趁乱收复的从梁朝立国到侯景叛乱期间寿阳属北朝的时间还多于南朝时间对建康朝廷的离心力很强以夏侯氏和裴氏为代表的当地豪族对萧衍和南梁是极度排斥的本质上是当地豪族联合北方来的侯景反抗梁武帝的行动所以北魏和南梁之间十万大军都未能攻下的寿阳城侯景仅用八百人就拿下了既然前任地方长官无力压制当地豪族干脆让侯景去搅局敢叛乱就来个一锅端战后对该地区的控制可以大大加强奇葩废太子助攻当初占据寿阳的侯景最初目标不过是割地自保然而一个奇葩的萧梁皇族萧正德主动上门求合作让侯景看到了新的机会萧正德是萧衍弟弟萧宏的儿子当年萧衍没儿子就过继了弟弟的这个儿子没想到萧衍自从起兵自立开始突然连生许多个儿子于是就将萧正德归还到弟弟名下称帝后立长子萧统为太子就是著名的文学家昭明太子萧正德一直愤愤不平后来找机会投奔了北魏对外自称废太子北魏大概把这货当神经病毕竟叔父是皇帝亲爹是有大实权的亲王却跑来投奔敌国甚至一度有人建议杀掉这个间谍北魏没杀他基本拿他当空气最后他受不了了又跑回了南梁对宗室宽厚到不可思议的萧衍不但没罚他流泪劝诫他一番后竟然恢复了他的爵位让他继续做官侯景叛乱时竟然任命萧正德做平北将军真是选对人了废太子决定和侯景联合搏一把大的由于淮南豪族的支持和萧正德的叛变侯景从最初占据寿阳叛乱到渡过长江直逼首都建康城都没有遇到什么样的抵抗力量逆转萧正德起初比侯景实力强很多在最初的合作关系中居优势地位在萧正德看来侯景只不过是一个凶悍的打手侯景不久拥立萧正德称帝自己为丞相而在围攻建康城的过程中双方的合作力量对比却逆转了因为联军实力相比守军仍相差甚远故侯景想法设法扩大自己的力量他敏锐察觉到南梁尖锐的阶级矛盾萧衍对皇族和世家大族极度放纵南梁底层充斥着大量破产的农民和部曲奴婢这些人方是沉默的大多数在依靠自己的力量进攻建康失败后侯景下令解放当时豪门贵族家中的奴婢废除了梁朝沉重的赋税开仓放粮奴婢们纷纷投靠侯景侯景也选拔他们之中有才能者为官就这样侯景很快就有了之众都是有顽强斗争精神的构成与萧正德合作关系中也占据了绝对上风晚些时候不满意侯景凌驾自己之上的萧正德试图杀掉侯景时反被侯景所杀皇族的觊觎事情到这个地步完全超出了萧衍的预料不但没能借机清除淮南的反对势力反而使自己麻烦不断但萧衍还没放弃希望因为各地亲王几十万勤王大军已经要到了可是他统治天下近半个世纪此时已经八十多岁了是惊人的高寿包括昭明太子萧统在内许多子孙已经在他之前病死了当时的太子萧纲也在围城之内对于那些正在壮年手握重兵的南梁亲王来说这是一个天赐良机如果能借侯景的手同时除掉梁武帝和太子萧纲呢各路援军各怀鬼胎在力量小许多又要围城的侯景军前梭巡不前城破后梁武帝被俘后不久被饿死萧纲即位后沦为侯景的傀儡失去了号令天下的合法性在侯景失败前被杀侯景最后被梁元帝萧绎击败各地亲王丧失了约束在侯景败亡前就大打内战还不惜向北方的西魏北齐求助最终被来自南方的军阀陈霸先摘了桃子梁朝被推翻只剩昭明太子一系在西魏保护下继续控制着江陵一带南北定局侯景之乱和南梁内战打破了东晋建立后南北对峙年的均势侯景之乱前南朝大约是三国吴蜀两国之和在加上孙权梦寐以求的淮南地区侯景之乱后南朝丧失了所有南北缓冲地带川蜀被西魏政权屯兵淮南全境落入了北齐之手基本只剩吴国地盘在南朝这地界内还分裂成两个死敌陈朝其主要领土建康城和三吴地区在战乱中遭遇毁灭性的摧残实力大大下降长江中游后梁政权以江陵为首都方圆只三百里在西魏的保护下才能延续下去存在的战略价值就是控制长江中下游遏制陈朝的发展空间此时南北朝由北方统一南方的结局已经确定是北方本身的分裂和战争才使南朝又苟延残喘了三十多年梁武帝真正的问题是机关算尽却对自己治下国内的尖锐阶级矛盾和皇族成员的自私心理没有充分认识萧氏门阀齐和梁均出自兰陵萧氏但萧衍和齐皇室亲戚关系刚出了五服至亲作为血缘关系继承南齐大统合法性和优先级并不强且齐这个国号在内部乱杀的法统传承上已紊乱不堪且对外战争连连战败被北魏不断夺地还内战不止天下不堪其扰萧衍换掉旧招牌以全新国号示于天下反有拨乱反正咸与维新的意味兰陵萧氏建立的王朝虽灭亡但却成为中世纪顶级门阀有唐一代就出了十位宰相琅琊榜也是以兰陵萧氏为原型火爆异常隋杨家祖传残暴与被称为变态王朝的北齐相比杨家三代是理性的残忍对待被征服的城市和俘虏治理下的平民百姓残暴程度远超北齐隋朝速亡一点也不冤枉隋文帝的父亲杨忠是一位英勇善战的武将早年滞留南朝后加入北魏北魏分裂后投向西魏长期跟随独孤信与高欢的东魏作战独孤信在史书上因为分别嫁女儿给北周隋唐三朝皇族而知名其中一个女儿嫁给战友杨忠之子杨坚一次战役中独孤信和杨忠被侯景打得一败涂地无力返回关中大本营投入南梁虽在南梁未立功梁武帝仍给给了他俩优厚的生活待遇等他几人想返回关中继续未西魏效力梁武帝不但同意还亲自饯行对于梁武帝的恩德杨忠在打猎时多次惺惺作态鸟向南飞就不射箭表达对梁武帝的感谢但而后的事情上演的却是农夫与蛇侯景之乱南梁内部混乱时西魏趁机南下在荆州方向扩张杨忠在新征服地区烧杀抢掠得到大量金银但并没有将战利品上交朝廷统一分配而是全部私吞南梁被俘将领向宇文泰提及了此事宇文泰考虑到杨忠功劳不小将其外调了事但杨忠认为他没错错的是告发他的人后来怕再次暴露自己抢劫后私吞战利品的行为把控制此地区的所有梁朝贵族杀光灭口攻破江陵城后挑完充作奴婢的人后制造了江陵大屠杀只有三百多家人幸存下来杨忠晚年还参加了与北齐的多次大战也是纵兵大掠也看出刚形成的关陇集团极度野蛮残暴杨忠的表现比起其子的大破坏来却显得微不足道杨坚不太费力当了开国皇帝其崛起是他女婿北周宣帝宇文赟打压宗室和托孤重臣的结果宣帝短短几年相继除掉宗室主要成员作为外戚的杨坚才能迅速崛起宇文赟又早早暴死杨坚趁机控制了中枢而后杨坚大肆屠杀宇文氏皇族所有宇文泰子孙辈杀尽及各种旁支顺着族谱全部灭绝的残暴在当时堪称独一份称帝后的猜忌心和刻薄寡恩也很突出大部分功臣都没有善终有许多朝臣甚至由于激怒了杨坚被打死在朝堂上这些只是统治阶级的倾轧屠戮平毁城市对百姓的罪行更是夸张其篡位过程中控制邺城的北周宗室尉迟宇文泰的外甥官拜相州今安阳总管起兵反抗被杨坚击败而后在邺城屠杀一个多月这次杀戮过于惨烈以至于一向残暴的杨坚都会良心不安多年后在屠杀旧址上建立了一座大慈寺超度亡魂自三国曹魏时代起邺城就是河北重镇铜雀台也在邺城历经数百年发展是河北最繁华的大城出征前杨坚就授意将领们胜利后把邺城从地图上彻底抹去伴随一个多月的烧杀和之后对城市的平毁邺城邯郸市临漳县这座超级大城彻底从史书消失了沧海桑田漳河改北流为东向河道向东拦腰贯穿过邺城邺城冲毁看不出曾经繁华的迹象一马平川零星散落着几个村庄后来唐朝的邺城今安阳已与河北历史名城实不为一地但地理上靠近接壤距公里比临漳县所属的邯郸市公里更近春秋时齐桓公始建邺城战国时魏文侯定为陪都也是西门豹投巫治邺之地曹操于邺城兴霸业取了袁绍大本营建铜雀台封王后国都也在邺城曹丕篡汉后以此为北都后赵东魏北齐相继都邺同样倒霉的还有南朝首都建康隋灭陈统一南北后建康遭受灭顶之灾地面建筑全部拆毁真正字面意义夷为平地随后开垦成田整个隋唐南京地区基本默默无闻地位被扬州取代大兴土木故意消耗民力隋文帝一大功绩是兴建大兴城唐长安城只花了个月就建成在依靠人力的古代这么快的速度背后同样是人民的血泪据资治通鉴的整理记录一个仁寿宫死者数万纵观隋文帝一生堪比后赵暴君石虎但因为他捡便宜重新统一南北终结大分裂时代因此在历史上被大大过誉杨广是中国历史上知名的暴君但就史书事迹而言他的残暴没超越其父亲和祖父虚伪程度也未及他们作为亡国之君往往被丑化到不可理喻的程度就像开国之君通常得到额外美誉一样隋炀帝一些被历史证明是错误的决策除开个人品质背后也有其政治和战略考量修建大运河和攻伐高句丽一个罪在当代一个功败垂成但这两个政治决策本身是一回事不惜人力物力的蛮干存在一个常被人忽略的战略意图蓄意削弱原北齐控制区的人力物力北周吞并南梁西部领土后人口有到隋文帝篡位时官方掌握户口约户共人经历战乱后原北齐境内户籍人口约而北周领土只有对比悬殊灭南陈时陈朝在册人口北齐境内人口远远超过北周和南朝境内人口总数之和北齐灭于比自己弱许多的北周是因为皇族内讧过于激烈对于以关陇集团为基本盘起家的隋朝来说北齐故地对自己的统治是极度危险的必须尽可能多耗一些隋炀帝开辟大运河善待原来南朝士族自己也以萧梁皇族后裔为皇后有联合南朝力量压制北齐故地的因素在内在修建大运河时如此不恤民力很大程度就是为了削弱北齐故地人力财力优势而蓄意为之高智商的隋炀帝在征讨高句丽时劳民伤财如同脑残他内心希望的是北齐故地和高句丽两败俱伤高句丽固然是个威胁但实际上北齐故地一旦整合出强势反隋势力对隋朝威胁更大把关东地区人民视为假想敌的隋炀帝最终玩火自焚死于最信任的关中人组成的近卫军之手隋朝这个对百姓无比残暴的政权终于倒台了隋末的天下大乱关东也成了群雄混战的主战场关中地区和江南地区遭到的破坏相对小得多到唐太宗时末期北齐故地的精华部分也是唐朝最富人口最多的河北和河南两道登记人口分别只有隋巅峰时期的和人口下降比例厉害程度可见一斑当然这种可以削弱北齐故地的行为也使得李渊统一天下时十分顺利给唐做了嫁衣瓦岗盟主被李渊得了天下瓦岗寨李密是顶级豪门贵族曾祖父李弼在关陇集团地位相当高祖父是北周魏国公虽然李密早年丧父但他继承了父亲的爵位和财产因身份高贵早年李密被选为隋炀帝的侍卫但隋炀帝看他不顺眼将他打发回家了初叛失败李密后来加入了杨玄感发起的反隋义军二人都算是门阀出身只是李密家族在关陇集团内部地位要远高于杨玄感成了头号智囊他提了上中下三策上策是在河北蓟县截击在辽东和高句丽作战的隋炀帝主力归路夹击粮草不足的隋军主力中策是进入关中占领长安慢慢发展下策是先占领东都洛阳杨玄感选择了下策在洛阳守军坚守和关中辽东兵的夹击下败死为何选择下策杨玄感起兵时关中或是洛阳均有庞大的正规军辽东军在隋炀帝指挥下一个月就回援杨注定成为先烈杨的叛军基本力量是河南地区的民众装备差让这些人远离老家去遥远的河北或关中作战士气和战斗力必大打折扣所谓上策很难落实等李密有了数十万之众包括精锐的骑兵队遇上归心似箭的隋军主力仍极度吃力杨招募的乌合之众去拦截无异螳臂当车隋炀帝依照宁枉勿纵的原则大肆追查株连一口气捕杀多人流放多人甚至将接受杨开仓赈济的百姓全部处死然而李密竟靠贿赂押送者逃脱了瓦岗称王隐姓埋名后投靠瓦岗寨显示出了极高的军事才华在军中的地位迅速上升在翟让之外独领一军攻占洛口仓胜利后由于李密家族地位很高开始有大批隋朝任命的官吏带着地盘来投如裴仁基带秦琼程咬金等来投这个时期魏征亦加入他的麾下周边的饥民被粮仓吸引纷纷加入瓦岗军各路小武装拥戴李密为盟主大部分中原地区名义上成了李密的地盘李密考虑到洛阳附近隋军仍然强大称王时机尚不成熟决定先称魏公此刻他也面临先入关还是先占洛阳的选择放弃洛阳直扑长安在当时时一个胜率很小的豪赌孤军在两方夹击下很容易被瓮中捉鳖关中东北方向山西长官李渊仍忠于隋炀帝要到几个月后才会起兵反隋一旦入关可能要应对三面受敌局面而且老瓦岗军饥民及各路叛军基本都不愿意在攻下洛阳前入关因此李密必须攻克洛阳或将洛阳守军削弱到一定程度才可能进入关中地区经营他的队伍多是山东人不攻克洛阳的话怎么愿意跟其向西进关且把绿林好汉出身的反王们留下必相互争夺关东就必然全丢了洛阳消耗战作为隋王朝的东都李密和隋朝打起消耗战关中也派军增援李密负箭伤左右司马都战死而休息一个月后李密再次出动全部精锐去找隋军拼命大胜三大粮仓全部落入其手洛阳守军再次陷入被动甚至河北窦建德等势力都向李密表达了归附之意隋炀帝害怕其对关中河北控制被切断砸锅卖铁从江淮和河北调兵支援洛阳李密开始和在江淮流域剿灭起义军的王世充大战首战失利而后三胜洛阳地区的十几万隋军基本或死或降王世充试图挑起李密和翟让的矛盾分化瓦岗军而李密干净利落火并了翟让而这一时期关中地区落入了他人之手李渊太原起兵后利用关中部分隋军东出支援洛阳洛阳守军和各地隋军都在和李密缠斗的机会从山西直入关中很快控制了整个关中得了大利当李密即将攻占洛阳时控制关中的李渊派李建成和李世民率军东出趁乱捞好处双方发生若干次小冲突互有胜负骁果军影响战局隋炀帝禁卫军大部分是关中人急于返回故乡终发起政变弑君后拥戴宇文化及为主沿大运河北上开始向关中进军他们必须要经过的地盘就是李密控制下的中原地区当禁卫军向李密请求借道借粮时李密终和禁卫军发生了战斗影响李密做出决策的关键性因素就是对骁果禁卫军战力的评估骁果军的战斗力远超李密想象且他中箭受了重伤经过跟骁果军的力战李密身经百战的嫡系部队基本消耗殆尽骁果军也战至力竭没能攻占粮仓而断了粮最后大部分成员反过来投降李密李密和骁果军恶战时王世充在洛阳发动政变重新和李密作对本来只需用饥饿逼迫城里士兵投降就行但新投降过来的骁果军将帅和原翟让系统的单雄信等人都撺掇李密和王世充决战在进攻洛阳的战役中李密嫡系内军先接战先前没有得到恢复败下阵来撺掇他进攻洛阳的一拨人又投降了王世充李密一下子陷入了穷途末路只好向西投奔李渊的唐王朝卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡李渊对所有曾称帝称王的群雄的处理方针一律采取设计肉体消灭的政策在隋末群雄中李密是唯一有可能同唐王朝一较高下的人物可惜在隋朝腹心地区洛阳周边起兵的李密必须先战胜洛阳守军才有资格真正实行西进关中或南下剿灭隋炀帝残余势力的战略偏偏洛阳对于隋炀帝也是绝不可失去的地方双方在洛阳城下进行了长年的消耗战最后几乎同归于尽在李密麾下效力的徐世勣秦叔宝程咬金则继续为唐帝国南征北战李承乾为太子为何还谋反太子和能当上皇帝完全是两码事尤其是站在隋唐那个年代上他弟弟李泰已经有了都督州的大权几乎占了当时全国还当上了雍州牧这可是之前李世民干过的位置李承乾的心里肯定是要哆嗦他要是想学习一下太子该怎么做往前一看上一位太子他大爷被他爹干掉再往前看是隋文帝太子杨勇被弟弟杨广干掉清一色的全无好下场在李承乾之前顺利完成父子间正常皇位传承的太子都是陈后主时候的事情了说明在那个时代皇位就不是靠太子这个位子得来的唐之前是短暂的隋朝和混乱的魏晋南北朝再之前是宗室内部有爱的掏心掏肺的西晋废杀弑篡这些字眼几乎到处都是大家玩的几乎都是承乾他爹的那套玄武门继承法宗室们先是开刀互砍等有实力的宗室死的差不多了就该轮到那些有实力的大臣们了最后顺利上位完成改朝换代往后看整个大唐二百八十九年皇位的交接几乎没几次顺利完成的除了李承乾被废后的李治之外第一个顺利继承的竟是安史后的代宗李豫是玄宗的孙子连代宗本人都差点成了政变的牺牲品代宗后皇位都不是皇帝太子说了算了得看神策军支持谁历史上的太子好做的不多历史上皇帝和太子关系大多数都是紧张的因为在帝制环境下他俩本身就是天生的正敌尤其是在科举制还不成气候的时候士绅群体不够大当时的中国是一个皇帝宗族氏族勋贵豪强共生共治谁都不服谁的社会当时东亚乱了快年了别说太子皇帝能善终的都没有几个位置不是拼爹是拼命看了几百年的大乱斗后剩下满满的求生欲可以理解立嫡立长立贤汉人王朝喜欢立嫡立长只有清朝选择立贤这个结论首先不准确汉唐属于嫡子长子继承的都远不到一半宋朝更是惨一大半人连儿子都没生出来绝嗣是宋朝皇帝一大特色真正贯彻嫡长子继承制的只有明代这么热衷主要是朱棣之后他自己的宗室就是最不稳定的因素只有用嫡长子这个死命令把小宗们封印起来养猪大宗才敢安心睡觉所以立嫡立长或立贤最重要的核心因素就是稳定清代宗室制度和明朝不一样不是封王养猪的制度且要把宗室尽可能利用起来好好培养统治数量庞大的汉人他们也想学汉人立嫡立长子嗣不昌像活了最久的乾隆十七个儿子活到成年的只有个到最后一次秘密立储确定由永琰即位是乾隆三十八年此时岁那个时候乾隆能立的儿子已经不多了永琰能即位不一定是因为他很优秀主要是生的晚活得久大多数皇帝几乎都没得选要么是紫禁城风水问题要么是只能与满蒙贵族通婚近亲结婚的后果所以立贤是一种游牧民族的变形制度也是一种子嗣不昌的无奈选择立长还是立贤都有问题立长司马家弄出傻子当皇帝立贤隋炀帝戏精胜出老领导眼光判断失误几率很大其实还是玄武门继承法最有能力只是不利于王朝的稳定嫡长子继承制是以官僚集团把活都干好为前提的总体上汉族从稳定交班出发追求立嫡立长实际情况嫡长有被废被杀病死的不是想立一定能立在继承人问题上多数朝代都是灵活操作安史之乱唐的衰落强盛富庶开放包容的大唐是中国人梦魂萦绕的朝代万邦来朝为大唐盛世找到一个根源那么这个根源最应该是均田与府兵士兵多是家中有田的自耕农他们平时为农战时为兵上阵杀敌虽然需要自备武器但是相较于税负的减免取得战功还可获得封田对于世代以土地为生的中国人来说土地的奖励最能聚拢人心大唐府兵勇武无双那些年大唐走入了一个正向循环朝臣上战场开疆扩土可获封地爵位官位百姓上阵杀敌可免税立功还有封田大唐上下锐意进取原本虎视眈眈的外敌纷纷被打怕打服虽然还有一个讨厌的吐蕃但这并不妨碍这个时代成为盛世但盛世的裂痕也从中产生边患日甚藩镇割据与宦官专权如三朵恶之花在大唐盛世下依次开放三者互为因果交替生长最终消解了大唐的所有荣光府兵制的崩坏大唐战斗力来自府兵府兵制的基础是均田制理论上讲通过军事行动开疆扩土可以获得更多的土地封与府兵府兵一方面戍边开疆一方面生产繁衍这个模式可以一直持续下去但是任何事情皆有极限中国古人为何不厌其烦的修建长城因为长城所保护的是适合农耕的土地而长城之外的土地大多只适合游牧在生产技术落后的农耕时代这些土地未必是资源一旦过多甚至可能是累赘一个帝国如果能够持续对外用兵其原因只可能是一个对外用兵是个赚钱的买卖如果对外用兵变成赔钱的买卖这种用兵就不再是盛世之光而是乱世之源但很可惜大唐由于前期扩张太快边境线太长需要更多的士兵镇守于是大唐不得不将这个赔钱的买卖继续下去在农耕地带或半农半牧地带打仗主场优势在大唐这边但是一旦战场转移至游牧地带大唐的主场优势就变成了客场劣势超过临界点后战争变得越来越不划算但大唐已经回不到从前只能硬着头皮往坚持下去府兵制的基础是均田制但是一方面随着人口数量的增加国家手中可供分封的公田很快消耗殆尽而另一方面土地兼并让无数有地农民变成失地流民从古至今随着社会稳定土地和财富向少数人手中集中的趋势就像地心引力一样不可抗拒即使抛来权贵势力使用暴力手段的强行兼并如果政府不加干涉土地的趋势也是向少数人集中时代一粒沙个人一座山支撑起大唐的府兵们家中确实有田比给别人种田的佃农要好但是家中那为数不多的田产也是他们唯一的资产了一次旱灾水灾家人患一次重病都会把这些在战场上无所畏惧的汉子们逼到走投无路只能卖地以解燃眉之急于是他们没地了地没了边疆还得守仗还得打但他们没有了可以种粮换钱买兵器的土地这仗怎么打没有兵器上战场就是送死去他大爷的逃吧于是大唐荣耀的根大唐府兵崩溃了战斗力减弱大唐的疆域和边界又过大那些当年被打服的少数民族还能继续臣服吗绝不可能于是大唐的边患旋即又起并且愈演愈烈似乎永远都处理不完节度使割据总结来说唐在击败东突厥等周边民族后边疆地区军事形式发生战略性转变由进攻转为防御为有效防御吐蕃突厥契丹等民族的侵扰需在边境设立固定的军事指挥体系而从高宗武后以来均田制逐渐被破坏导致流民逃户问题严重一方面是边疆需要大量人员从军守边一方面大量流民无处安置于是二者结合玄宗时期就大量招募流民来充军戍边于是募兵制取代了府兵制为节度使制度的出现提供了条件既然是为了应对边疆地区快速变化的军事形势那么改革军事指挥体系也有必要需要建立边防快速反应部队财政和后勤就要跟上中央不能全部解决后勤保障问题不能给钱就要给政策就是允许各边防军屯田自行解决供应问题财权下放给节度使税收田赋不交中央留作军费军财治理权均落入节度使手中可见节度使的设置是中央政府为了应对来自多个方向的边患压力在边境地区设立军事和行政机构来快速应对而设立的在中央无法提供后勤保障时是政府平衡中央和地方势力的一种做法从最初设立看起到了加强中央对地方控制的作用十镇节度使兵力全在边疆可见唐王朝对边疆的重视中央军藩镇兵力藩镇节度使治所兵力平卢营州今辽宁朝阳市范阳幽州今北京河东太原朔方灵州今宁夏吴忠市河西凉州今甘肃武威市陇右鄯州今青海海东市乐都区剑南益州今成都北亭北庭都护府安西龟兹城今新疆阿克苏地区库车县剑南广州合计约等于既然支撑府兵制的生产关系已经不存在那么只有改变兵制了不是有很多人没了土地失了生计吗国家招募成为职业军人专门为国家打仗可以吗如果大唐的边疆没那么广如果大唐周边的强敌没那么多这是个好办法如果只看募兵代替府兵后唐军的战斗力似乎还有提升毕竟军人职业化了嘛但是大唐的疆域太大了需要防御的边疆需要面对的强敌太多了于是大唐派往镇守边疆的常规部队常常会遇上仅靠自己应付不来的情况这时候怎么办常规方法当然是找中央找朝廷要援兵这些兵来自朝廷朝廷理应负责到底遇到麻烦应该朝廷全权调度但是在交通通讯等方面如此落后的古代如果将军队的一切事物都交于中央管理其效率可想而知打仗哪里等得及于是兵权开始下放这里说的兵权不是领兵权而是招兵权为了应对复杂的边境战事当地的守军将领后来成为节度使开始根据实际情况需要自行招兵当时构成税基主体的自耕农已经纷纷成为失地流民世家大族们想方设法少交税不交税长安的皇帝其实也不富裕于是魔鬼一点点被释放中央先是命令节度使在边界驻军处组织屯田先保证将士的吃饭问题这倒是很合理但是这样一来一个悖论就来了如果粮食有余可以换钱节度使手上就有了一定的财权如果粮食不足节度使就会向中央要其他赚钱手段无论怎么样节度使都会有一定的财务权中央逐渐放开了盐税铁税其他税务也被逐渐从中央下放到地方地方愈实而中央逾虚当独立的募兵权和征税权都到了节度使手里这些节度使实际上就已经是割据一方的土皇帝了演变到最后给钱不足天不怕地不怕的募兵们不但敢杀节度使也敢杀皇帝最后大唐已经完全信奉武力至上宦官掌握禁军各地节度使掌握地方军军队就是唯一军队就是一切大唐变成了一个由丛林法则主宰的帝国天宝危机大唐天宝载年安史之乱爆发至年两京收复在望唐肃宗已经开始头疼让他头疼的不是如何尽快平定安史之乱而是如何安排朔方军的两位主将他招来李泌询问两位主将郭子仪李光弼已为宰相若克两京平四海则无官以赏奈何李泌给的对策是不要用官位奖励功臣此将导致将帅权重功高难制等天下太平后要用土地和爵位赏赐功臣这样他们会为自己的子孙而珍惜既得利益不敢乱来而建议肃宗未听进去在天下未太平时就开始防范为大唐续命的有功之臣不让他们权重不让他们立下高功安史之乱打了年实际上与肃宗搞帝王之术有很大的关系对他而言打赢战争什么最重要巩固自己的权威最重要相州之战九个节度使联合攻打史思明叛军兵力占压倒优势结果惨败纯粹就是肃宗从中作祟他害怕诸将拥兵自重故未在军中设主帅却命亲信宦官鱼朝恩为观军容宣慰使到军队牵制各方势力使诸将畏首畏尾无法协同相州之战败了虽没有统帅但也要有人担责郭子仪势头正劲那对不起就你了遂将郭子仪解职闲置京师三年多有人说是鱼朝恩构陷谗言能发挥作用说明皇帝相信可历史上那些挑拨君臣关系的所谓谗言说白了都是主子借小人口说出来的心声狡兔死走狗烹正因为赋闲郭子仪则性命无忧而第一战将李光弼则生命堪忧在对付统兵将帅方面代宗比肃宗走得更远肃宗防范将帅权重将他们调来调去但还给他们留后路以备战时之需好再为大唐卖命代宗这里安史叛军已被收拾于是狡兔死走狗烹代宗即位两年内为大唐续命的功臣相继死去来瑱先遭兵谋后被赐死仆固怀恩遭猜忌举起反旗很快病死李光弼在遭受猜忌后忧惧而死当仆固怀恩被逼反勾结吐蕃回纥南下代宗封郭子仪一堆官职让他率兵抵御郭说招抚使是抵御叛军需要不敢辞让但太尉一职绝不能接受上表请辞向皇帝表明心迹说早就想像范蠡一样过逍遥日子但因为寇仇在近家国未安臣子之心不敢宁处才勉为其难担当重任一次请辞不准再次上表辞让代宗终于同意在资治通鉴中落得一个社稷纯臣的评价也折射出郭子仪周遭险境重重别人都在玩阴谋他一把年纪了却只能装疯卖傻否则就是身死家亡于岁去世时已熬过任皇帝生命的最后年与皇帝们持续不断无声之战也终于埋进了历史赵宋一个不正的正统王朝经常美化赵宋而实际上也是少数官僚的烈火烹油十之八九的衣不蔽体在攫取型制度下大多数人依然处在温饱线上重文抑武给了管家与士大夫阶层更大的空间享受生活客观上促进了文化艺术的繁荣不管百姓如何如果身为百姓却向往这样的时代那将是啼笑皆非的拥有世界最大的常备军却总是屡战屡败大宋基本可以等同于大怂纵然历史上任何一个王朝都有被践踏的普通人群但像宋代这样既没有大国崛起也没有小民尊严有的只是君臣共治坐地分赃的黑帮政治从人本主义史观上说作为普通人实在没什么值得缅怀与惋惜我们而今依旧如宋人般国富民穷国内是短视频里的假美女和假消息国外则是合法化后的大麻把大多数人养起来让他们过上不能思考行尸走肉但越来越上瘾的生活美国也变成靠金融吸血全球靠军工维持对外吸血靠医疗对内吸血靠法制维持内部吸血的攫取性制度底层甚至中层也同药渣精英推崇绩优主义让每个人如同上了加速发条的傀儡开封和临安之所以能聚集百万人口是因为皇权将数十万统治阶层宗室官僚禁军及其家属聚集在这为了满足统治阶层的消费需求开封和临安犹如巨大的怪兽源源不断汲取全国人力与财力还我河山莫须有岳飞是一份高洁的礼物南宋朝廷承受不起赵构秦桧一心媾和尤其是赵构这个软脚虾脆皮狗是主要罪人秦桧是个垫背的跪在岳飞墓前在高宗眼里岳飞有四宗罪议立太子高宗其实有过儿子但在苗刘之变中受惊吓死掉了而高宗后来又生不了孩子就过继了两个孩子岳飞再三催高宗早立太子文臣还可以建议武将万万不可说高宗当时就很不客气的说这不是卿不可以谈论的事情淮西兵变当时宋朝军队四大战区淮西军是刘光世的军队战力最差朝廷就想把刘光世的军队给裁撤了一开始想让岳飞领导指挥和岳飞聊过除了韩世忠张俊不受节制外所有部队受你节制但此举收到文官集团强烈抵制当时岳家军已在四路军队中最大有员将领人马如果再把刘光世的五六万人交给他就是尾大不掉了高宗就动摇收回了成命岳飞恼火撂挑子不干了跑到庐山自己母亲坟前守坟他一守坟手下人都休了年假此种情况下高宗再三给岳飞写信要求其回到本职工作上他这才销假回来虽然让岳飞面子是做足了但使得高宗对岳飞产生了不信任和厌恶认为是在要挟自己十二道金牌朝廷为了达成宋金和议要求前线部队都回来其他都很听话马上就回来了岳飞却要道紧急军令才回在高宗看来你已经调动不了了不忌讳武人和文人间的交往朝廷的忌讳岳飞偏不忌讳有时候也舞文弄墨跟文人间书信往来诗词唱和很能参与到文人的活动中去鉴于朝廷对武将的不信任武将的自保之术呢一般是抹黑自己例如张俊就做出一副很贪财的样子韩世忠也大量去收购土地积累财富岳飞不怕死又不贪财杀了岳飞后高宗常舒一口气今兵权归朝廷朕要易将帅承命奉行与差文臣无异宋朝对官员很宽容纵观两宋岳飞这种等级被处死的仅此一例坚定迎回二帝是误解徽钦俩个王八蛋北狩以后赵九妹自己先定的迎回二圣的口号那时飞哥还是大头兵跟着喊口号怎么了皇帝都这么喊自从绍兴五年徽宗死了以后岳飞就再没提过迎回皇帝这种话因为此时对面金国宣传的也是放回钦宗回来当皇帝这不是跟敌国呼应么飞哥在这方面变现很正常识大体对钦总这个废物点心的称呼头衔由圣改成了天眷莫须有当时杀岳飞甚至是朝中共识除了大家简单说的迎回二帝得罪高宗听众易信兵权太重实际原因可能黄袍加身皇帝要杀他可以理解但大臣和将军们也要杀他甚至是宋金的共识是天下有钱人的共识以莫须有不需要理由共识都同意为什么会形成共识呢因为他干了一件拓跋宏当年做的事均田也就是土改在解放了的北方领土上分给了宋朝的金朝的流民和难民你在北方土改了南方呢再打下去金就被全部土改了这还得了所以杀岳飞是朝中共识直捣黄龙府无论是在与宋高宗的沟通上还是实际军事部署上岳飞的重点都是还于旧都直捣黄龙是岳飞为振奋军心而提出的口号基于岳家军的超强战力和岳飞卓越的指挥能力加上两翼友军的倾力配合且颖昌之战后完颜宗弼基本上也会不战而弃汴梁故而岳飞恢复故土是可能的至于之后怎么办要看宋金的力量对比了或看具体情况了若收复东京后下令继续北伐岳家军冒着被分割包围的风险孤军北上才能达成目标不管有没有撤军令岳飞都不会兵行险着全军为上见好就收定是他的不二选择毕竟岳帅从来都是善于思考讲求实际的运用之妙存乎一心宋史岳飞传便是这位战神用兵风格的最好体现胜利下的风险金军在郾城颖昌两场大战中损失惨重女真铁骑满万无敌的神话被岳家军击得粉碎但绝对未到伤筋动骨的地步在岳飞班师后不到半年完颜宗弼即统兵九万再次南下可见金国并没有大伤元气其军事力量也基本完好他们在幽云地区及辽东老家的大量部队还没有调动岳家军连战连胜但其两翼掩护俱失议和先撤了已陷入过于冒进的险境之中另外兵力不足的问题一直困扰着岳飞他实际只有人经过郾城颖昌两次大战和无数小战的消耗加之还需留下力量驻守新占城池和保护补给线岳飞能够投入下一步作战的兵力已不足作为优秀的军事统帅岳飞对此是清楚的故而在拿下永安军今河南巩义后就命令各部向自己驻扎的郾城今河南郾城和王贵驻守的颖昌今河南许昌靠拢以缩短战线集中兵力完颜宗弼也看出了岳家军的命门所在于是不等岳飞调整完毕就抢先向郾城颖昌这两处岳家军后方咽喉部发起反攻虽然这两仗岳家军经浴血搏杀大获全胜但对于敌人击我之后断我归路的打算岳飞不会看不出来金军越往北撤其补给线越短越有利于大军集结应战金军采取诱敌深入之法步步后撤将岳家军吸引到开封以北的大平原上再以骑兵发动反击以步兵为主的岳家军极有可能被敌从侧后迂回分割宋军一旦进入华北平原远离江淮水运的支持其补给效率之低下转运之耗时的劣势就会被成倍放大南宋末年宋军端平入洛时本想赶在蒙古军之前占据汴梁结果一头扎入黄泛区导致后勤系统崩溃最后因断粮而功亏一篑所以即便没有高宗的撤军令在兵力不足且孤军深入的情况下岳飞最理智的做法也应是后撤以集中兵力稳定防线固守待援而不是继续冒进义军武装不应高期待有人指出岳家军当时有一大优势就是黄河南北各路抗金义军的积极配合如果能够集中义军力量就可以极大充实岳家军的战力并从后方袭扰金军前后夹攻以取中原但从冷兵器战争史的一般经验来看对这种类似民兵游击队的义军武装从来都不可对其给予过高期望由于缺乏组织引导和纪律约束义军往往都只有打顺风仗的能力其作用也就仅在于牵制金军部分治安力量假如岳家军战事不利的消息传来号称百万的义军武装很快就会作鸟兽散而且其动辄几十万的数量绝对不能当真百万义军揭竿而起也不过是宋军在宣传上的造势即便岳家军继续北上得到义军武装的支持力度也不会很大相反岳家军还必须拿出相当的装备和补给来支持义军否则这些人顷刻间就会走的走散的散这反过来又大大加重了岳家军的后勤负担宋人一直都有高估北方特别是幽云一带汉人故国情怀的误区实际上当地汉人在辽金百余年以以汉法因俗而待的治理下并不对辽金怀有什么敌意对宋也没有箪食壶浆以迎王师的期望遗民泪尽胡尘里只是南宋文人们一厢情愿的臆想而已士绅堕落邀请异族政权统治三穷皇帝穷百姓穷大臣自称穷问题就是从靖康之变到年年间旧中国政治问题的核心所在也是中国为何没进入殖民时代的部分原因王安石变法的核心是四个字富国强兵被批判的核心也是四个字敛财害民王安石评价走高的背景依然是四个字天下为公其变法围绕增加国家政府收入这个核心问题展开简称为国反对他的人的理由就是为民那么谁是民呢自然是天下士绅对抗王安石变法宋仁宗期间想改变积贫积弱的局面柔和一点的庆历新政年又回到老调重弹失败了猛点的王安石在神宗的支持下变法开了一个藏富于君均贫于民的局面神宗一下线变法就遭到反扑之后几十年靖康之变就来了亡国了左也不是右也不是尝试都失败了南宋朱熹谈起北宋的历史教训回答是古者刻剥之法本朝皆备所以有靖康之乱正是由于盘剥过重北宋亡不亡国大臣们不关心但对连番上书批判王安石要求剥夺王安石死后所有待遇要求废除王安石变法所有内容绝逼是兴趣盎然的南宋立国之时大家关心的仍然不是是否可以北伐抗战复国还是在追问一个问题就是陛下你究竟是怎么来看王安石变法的逼着赵构一定要表态王安石和王安石变法统统都是王八蛋后这些人才心满意足地支持南宋政权偏安一隅直至被元朝灭国为止变法三百年后朱元璋放弃唐宋的开放性财政设施而采取一种保守性和收敛性的体制其说出宋神宗用王安石小人竞进天下骚然此可为戒其个人认知力对王安石极为反感清乾隆直接骂王安石是个混蛋对王安石的风评随着时间线逐步走到臭不可闻的地步随着中国进入近代戏剧性的事情来了中华民族陷入危机后原本那个臭不可闻的王安石风评直接进入扭转的快车道从梁启超开始到新中国直接把王安石变法写入官方教科书中其形象从一个几乎误国小人形象重塑成为一个救国救民的大改革家形象金融化的萌芽文明的进程文明的发展需要人口文化技术等生产力因素的积累唐宋从皇帝和贵族统治的结构转变为皇帝与士绅统治的结构原因就是人口技术文化等生产力因素的累积已跨过一道关口唐宋之前的税收是因人征税中唐之后转向财产国家的关注点转去了对经济的掌控程度从王朝掌握的人口少到王朝掌控的财产越少离亡国就不远了这个转变可能是粮食产出的增加就是粮食产出不仅可以支撑温饱还可以支撑土地额外的经济性物资产出进行远距离商贸的需求文明进步到在人口粮食商业三个点之间构成稳定构型内核从耕者有其田这个能不能活人的问题进入到了有产者要交税这个均衡性问题上去了宋是中国商业社会的顶峰三冗冗兵冗官冗费问题最核心最根本的是冗官通过细密管理让商业抓在自己手里发展出稳固的纸币发行体系打通流通脉络冗官就要让更多士绅进入成为国家认证统治阶级的一部分要有收益最后形成一个藏富于民独穷国君的局面到处求和面对几年一更新不断膨胀的大臣和背后的士绅群体力不从心是皇帝朝廷的常态力量的不平衡是问题的根源财税发展神宗政府对铸钱充满热情便是财税扩张的典型表现在铸钱高峰期两年所造铜钱数目便超过明余年的总量宋室南迁后大部分矿区沦陷金国铸币锐减但南宋财政政策并未转向紧缩和内敛相反很快便建立一套包括东南会子在内的政权体系作为铜钱的替代宋代的会子不是现代意义的货币而是某种具有流通性质的政府债券大宋是个金融帝国纸币决定国家兴亡是利益分配不能贯彻好了才有异族政权入主中国的结果出现宋代以后税收是倒退的在财产税上几乎只有农业税和在农田计算基础上的财产税缺了财产商业增值税异族政权与士绅合流辽金元清这些异族政权特别是金元清三个政权拆开看可以都算得上被邀请进来统治中国的政权辽国的存在年那全都是意外是非常不可思议的事情辽从后晋手上拿到幽云十六州但辽他连一个正经国家实际都算不上是澶渊之盟大怂打赢了却要给岁币达成稳定的宋辽对峙后他才从原来那个部落联邦集合体变成一个真正意义上的国家他开始用治下的汉族统治的幽燕地区作为国家政权建设的发动机推广到原本仅在军事概念上存在的辽国其它地区是汉族士绅汉化支撑了辽国进入国家实体的进程汉化才有出路这就是辽国全部的经验总结后来金国建立并且占领中原珠玉在前有样学样继续学辽国汉化元朝建立继续汉化一方面不汉化他就存在不下去异族政权纷纷选择汉化那么什么是汉化就是利益分配异族政权和汉族士绅的利益分配关系达成一种分赃式的利益平衡与其说是税收不如说是朝廷在收保护费短命蒙元忽必烈占元顺帝占其它帝占有一个人燕铁木尔历经世祖成宗武宗仁宗英宗泰定帝天顺帝文宗明宗宁宗惠宗顺帝帝享年岁成吉思汗的独一性铁木真出现之前游牧民族没出现蒙古帝国这般逆天的存在是匈奴人不是全民皆兵么是柔然人不是来去如风么是突厥人不懂以战养战是回鹘契丹的战马脚力不够强跑不到淮河以南或中亚以西为何成吉思汗之前没人开拓如此宽广的疆域呢草原这片江湖的政治生态是这样的水草丰美时大家各自出去放牧等到水草没有了就集中到一起报团过冬在报团的日子里大家交流一下一年的感受顺便规划一下明年的任务年复一年在这帮报团的人中间总会出现一位首领于是以这位首领为核心的部落就诞生了部落人数可多可少多则上万少则数十部落和部落之间因抢夺牧草和其他资源免不了发生冲突冲突出一个特别能打的部落其它部落便会认其为草原共主但共主并不等于至尊无上的皇帝他并不能支配草原的一切而仅是本部落的资源而已另外其他部落对其义务有限类似武林人士对盟主的感觉因为再厉害撑死就是一个部落的当量这就决定了草原上的共主必然是快起快落的部落制的缺点非常明显就是太松散没有足够向心力这种强势部落带着随从部落的模式破坏力和影响力终究有限很难持续且高强度的对外输出战力以犯边和骚扰为主汉唐就常利用拉拢一派打击一派的方式使得草原尽可能处于孱弱的非统一状态从而降低军事威胁霍去病为啥能开全图直捣匈奴腹地李靖为何能举重若轻干翻突厥草原带路党功不可没千户制正如中原大地出了一个秦始皇草原也等来了他的千古一帝铁木真他的过人之处不局限于军事领域他实行千户制重塑了草原政治生态千户制顾名思义以千人为单位把人口进行编队其不仅是战时单位还是行政单位每个千户有固定的活动范围不能随意移动出圈千户长在范围内有权指定每个牧民的具体放牧场所和要求他们旅行差派徭役战时千户长要负责带领户内岁男子全部出征最关键的是千户长由成吉思汗亲自指派相当于让草原从部落制跳过了分封制直接进化到了郡县制春秋战国年的活铁木真谈笑间一个人就干完了过大的部落瞬间被肢解为数个部落降低了抢夺造反的几率例如万户挂一个虚职下面捏实权的千户长都是我指派的你怎么和我斗原来零散的小部落太过分散固定活动区域管理难度降低了好几个数量级战败的部落奴隶铁木真允许以千户制的方式重建原本奴隶打起仗积极性不高但现在相当于在新政下复国了积极性和忠诚度都大大增加了从制度上杜绝了中原政权大规模招募草原带路党或者直接扶持草原代理人的可能都打散成千户了不可能成建制一批一批去玩离间成吉思汗通过千户制将草原的一切力量都捏在自己手里汗庭中央集权大功告成万蒙古铁骑似一人般如臂使指这绝不是此前的匈奴和突厥可比的但千户制也有弊端和秦有点像原来战争年代尚有通过军功晋升的通道平定天下后没有了怎么办放草原上就是原来还可以通过欺负其他部落来获取不定期的资源红利现在千户制把各自的规模和牧所都定死了上哪去弄新的战利品铁木真的答案是勇士们看看周围全是一帮菜鸡地狭人稀的西夏暮气沉沉的金再往南听说还有一个只知研究儒家理学的宋往西是连皇位都被外人夺了的西辽再往西是建国不久军队都是雇佣过来的花剌子模要怎么做还需要教分裂为何蒙古帝国又如此快消亡了大蒙古帝国到蒙哥死四大汗国独立为止实际只存在多年时间并不算长原因当然很多主要原因还是成吉思汗一走蒙古人就不太能维持中央集权的政治生态了一项大的改革尤其涉及国本涉及体制的改革光靠一代君王是完不成的需要好几代人的坚持才能形成习惯跟秦一样立郡县制始皇帝一死天下一乱秦二世就不住了基于习惯大家很自然去复辟分封制项羽不就只想做一个西楚霸王嘛到武帝之前实际用的也是半分封半郡县直到平定七国之乱推恩令才算把郡县制强行拉回来成吉思汗后没人的威望可以高到在如此广袤的疆域内继续实行中央集权大家都差不多谁打仗都不差谁都是黄金家族的后代更何况忽必烈把汗位继承规则由推举改成了世袭蒙古人就更不可能买这个账了帝国的分裂就是必然的事情从世纪开始当火器成为战争的主角军事科技的进步让草原骑兵失去了对他国的碾压优势使得无法再出现第二个蒙古本来你的宗教经济文化和社会制度先进性就不如农耕文明草原政权自然又回到年年犯边的但打了就跑的老路上蒙元算中国王朝么这可以从几个角度来解读中国是定义为地理概念还是文化族群如果是地理概念那么日本人占领中国建立的王朝是不是中国接受华夏汉文明那么汪伪和伪满算不算中国人的政权其头上有日本人当太上皇用趋势当结果可以说元已经中国化蒙古人自己的认知蒙古文的历史中没有中国这个词一直叫自己蒙古国大元大蒙古国大元是什么词元也是大的意思大大蒙古国是个定语都不是国号外蒙当前一直独立存在争这个叙事权的话我们就不占优他们会认为他们占领了中国只是奴役殖民了这片土地一段时间蒙古战力强么其战术只对东亚古典集权帝国才有效世纪西欧战斗力虽然不强但防御点满蒙古西征中被打败的匈牙利人和波兰人只是一群乌合之众军队中都是些临时凑起来的农民大部分是轻步兵都没什么弩兵年平安夜蒙古直扑波兰首都波兰人吸取之前的教训把木头城堡换成石头的配置了弩炮让蒙古人损失惨重后期金帐汗国基本都败了蒙古人的战法完全不适应欧洲城堡按照中世纪德国的标准蒙古人继续西进也是费每个城堡都是私兵攻打一个巨石城堡的战利品和战损消耗完全不成正比法国能动员的骑兵比东欧的盲流军队总数都多消除藩镇皇帝一下线就亡国封建制比中央郡县更能维持强军力藩镇化更能抵抗外敌入侵其本质上是全面战争和局部战争的区别华夏两次沦陷更是离不开宋明都解决了藩镇化集权体制下的将领都是打工仔西欧每个领主没有绝对实力那苟住比什么都重要防御力拉满封建都是自己的兵保护自己资源和头衔跟你丫战朱明王朝明朝建立的意义明朝的建立让汉族在到之间有个难得的空窗期在这年里喘一口气不至于在异族压迫下窒息唐的后继者是孱弱的两宋崇文抑武为方针带来的后果是连基本盘都保不住更不用提靖康之耻和崖山沦陷唐宋元明清若少了明朝那么汉人在上一次统治全国的稳定期是多年前的唐玄宗时期若无明朝重塑法统汉人或许会成为类似罗马人的历史名词唐以后关中残破不堪被金元统治近年往北半个陕甘宁被西夏统治到明朝收复至少脱离汉族统治多年整个大西南包括四川贵州土司遍地云南从六诏到大理再到明初至少多年当地百姓已经不知道汉字燕云十六州丢失多年淮河自北宋灭亡近年沦落异族南宋旧城被元统治也有多年如没有明朝汉人经历持续年的异族统治后民族意识是否能很好保留难说土木之变的连锁历史历史上蒙古民族是由两个基本部分组成的古代两分为草原百姓和林中百姓瓦剌简单来说是指西部蒙古族清朝称漠西蒙古瓦剌的意思是森林之民或邻近者北京保卫战与夺门之变调兵备战从全国各地调兵勤王含两京河南的预备役沿海备倭军漕运运粮军三类都不算精锐但也凑了万兵员当时京师军队只有配备武器盔甲于谦又下令将南京储存武器的共计件调入北京还派人去土木堡战场收集明军遗弃的头盔顶甲件火枪杆火铳只火箭枚火炮门装备守卫北京的明军兵马未动粮草先行北京一下子多出这么多增援部队必须提前解决粮食问题由于大运河的运输通州是京城粮草主要囤积地仓米数百万石可充京军一岁饷这么多粮食不动员十几万人根本搬不回来打北京保卫战确实也用不了这么多粮食但蒙古骑兵从来都是就食当地运不回来也要毁掉除了付费请老百姓运粮令所有来京增援部队路过通州时自行到通州取粮超额多带粮食到北京的还有赏钱大军从通州一过顺手就把通州的粮食搬空了土木惨败后瓦剌并未乘胜直捣京师而是几次在宣府大同等边镇勒索财物使朝廷得到个月的喘息时间在北京保卫战中于谦特别重视谍报工作英宗刚随也先大营走远于谦就得到线报马上下令前线大炮轰击不必投鼠忌器主动出击不向也先示弱几场城门伏击战打消了也先速胜梦天寒地冻各地亲王大军纷纷开拔也先遂拔营北遁北京城保住了储位拉锯得知英宗被俘后孙太后命朱祁钰监国一天后又想立两岁的朱见深为太子她的如意算盘是英宗若能脱险归来皇位自然还是自己儿子的若有万一皇位也只能是她孙子的避免朱祁钰生母吴氏母以子贵但土木之变后文官集团爆发出清洗内廷势力宦官和锦衣卫的政治诉求与潮流局势发展已超出孙太后的控制宣宗一生只有个儿子但由于出身朱祁钰母子在宫外生活在明朝藩王不得参与朝政如果没有土木之变软弱的朱祁钰母子肯定可以平静度过一生事情的发展却将其推到了前台此时朱祁钰年方岁正春秋鼎盛太后扶他上马也有条件景帝只在特殊情况下代任其位不得改变皇统世系死后仍由朱见深继承后朱祁钰改易太子将朱祁镇的儿子换成自己的儿子于谦勉强签字改换太子后朱祁钰笼络朝臣给官员发双倍薪水于谦又推辞不受明代有人指责于谦不谏言景泰帝易储之事王世贞指出大家想多了这是皇帝的家室汉高帝想废太子刘盈改立刘如意张良都不敢开口直谏凭什么认为于谦就能说服景泰帝夺门之变夺门之变实质是孙太后朱祁镇与朱祁钰的政治斗争于谦执掌兵部总督十团营阻止发起的人不难难的是如何善后朱祁钰当时病危其即位的合法性来自孙太后的敕书而不是其父宣宗在病危之际孙太后复立朱祁镇当然也合法要彻底否定这个合法性只有废黜孙太后将谋逆的朱祁镇废为庶人再赐死如何面对未来登基的朱见深此时朱祁钰病危没有子嗣改立的太子早亡如果于谦当日有所行动他就不再是于谦而是王莽曹操司马昭南宫复辟当日凌晨景泰帝听闻朝堂钟鼓大作大惊问左右曰是于谦吗左右告之是上皇复辟了病榻上的朱祁钰知道自己政治生命了结了眼神空洞嘴中无奈念叨哥哥做好好于谦用人只看才能功绩不看出身得罪了不少大臣勋贵南宫复辟同时于谦被当场逮捕朱祁镇说于谦可是有功之人他知道若非于谦主持战局击退也先自己怎么可能回到北京呢此时逆臣走到朱祁镇面前说不杀于谦今日之事无名少年苦读时于谦就写下著名的石灰吟刚直无畏性格已经罄露抄家官兵冲进于谦宅邸只见正室被封得严严实实里面珍藏的是从宣宗开始开始几位皇帝赐他的东西对于于谦的死天下无不冤之于少保和岳武穆都是胸怀天下之人是民族脊梁国家之魂可惜都低估了周遭的恶意土木堡后的瓦剌与鞑靼瓦剌首领也先将英宗送还北京结束了与明朝的战争后来在北京城的夺门之变发生之前瓦剌统治集团内部倒是率先爆发了一系列血腥的内讧也先虽当时声震大漠南北名义上他也只是蒙古汗廷内的太师比起黄金家族的岱总汗即太宗汗脱脱不花仍矮一头也先无法将大汗变成自己的傀儡因为他们分营而治天高皇帝远但权臣与英主的冲突如箭在弦面临摊牌瓦剌为了控制大汗早将也先的姐姐嫁给大汗充当线人其子理当继承汗位不甘充当傀儡的脱脱不花却不买账决心立另一个妻子所生的儿子为太子无可调和景泰二年脱脱不花率先发难也先初战不力但不久用离间计瓦解了对方军队最后杀死了这位大汗也先下令大杀黄金家族后人忽必烈直系后裔在这场劫难里几乎被斩尽杀绝盛极而衰也先自立大元田盛大可汗用北元大汗脱古帖木儿年号表露出继承元朝大统的意思以非黄金家族身份窃据蒙古大汗之位做到这一点的唯有也先一人可惜好景不长不到一年时间也先兵败身死不是只有黄金家族不能称汗的天命而是也先避不开创业者的顽疾做到共患难做不到共富贵也先对草原的统治能依靠的只是瓦剌的军事集团里面的阿喇知院是其得力助手也先称汗后太师之位空出来了但也先来了个内举不避亲把位子给了自己儿子且为了削弱阿喇的势力也先派人暗杀阿喇两个儿子如此一来其不反也得反了结局是也先和阿喇先后都被杀鞑靼各部拥立脱脱不花幼子为汗瓦剌部众退居西北旧巢黄金家族再次定鼎草原瓦剌因内讧而衰鞑靼内部也四分五裂年换了三位大汗随着年满都古勒汗的去世忽必烈嫡系只剩一个大约岁的孩童巴图蒙克满都古勒汗遗孀满都海夫人登上历史舞台身兼母亲妻子辅臣三项重任成为蒙古族历史上著名的巾帼英雄巴图蒙克号称达延汗也就是大元汗后来再次统一了草原异姓领主专权的局面也被扭转不复存在不安定因素全部解决后开始分封诸子今日内蒙古行政区域图仍看到达延汗分封的痕迹达延汗的子孙们开始了画地住牧的生活这有利于减少鞑靼内部冲突但游牧经济很快遇到它的瓶颈畜群增长要求增补饲料牧地剩余产品也需要找到渠道交换绸缎绢布乃至锅釜针线等生活用品当时蒙古地区最有势力的首领是土默特部的阿勒坦又音译为俺答金子的意思第一个问题通过向西武力扩张解决征讨瓦剌迫使其进一步西迁至阿尔泰山一带西海成为土默特的领地第二个问题通过与中原贸易来解决在隆庆年间开市和通贡终于实现前面嘉靖年间一直互打不同意开市随着互市的开展许多喀尔喀部乃至瓦剌领主也派遣商队以漠南各地领主名义到马市民市月市进行贸易土默特部趁机做生意抽贸易税或物资高价转售从中取利俺答的营帐地库库和屯逐渐成为漠南蒙古手工业和商业中心这座蒙古语里的青色之城就是呼和浩特瓦剌的终局与俺答求贡类似瓦剌因为接近中原市场较困难对阿姆河与锡尔河间的农区市场需求就很迫切经常袭扰伊犁河谷瓦剌各部在达延汗攻击下败多胜少步步西退为了结盟在世纪年代公推和硕特部首领为汗再经过长期演变瓦剌各部归并为准格尔和硕特土尔扈特杜尔伯特四大部各部的领袖领地有限的矛盾无法调和在距离也先时代过去年后又开始组织大反攻企图恢复旧有荣光年土尔扈特部占领乌拉尔河伏尔加河流域年和硕特部入主青海西藏地区但在东戈壁地区遇到了清朝大炮在叶尼塞河遇到了莫斯科连发枪世纪遭遇世纪不再是势均力敌最后一次蒙古帝国在上升的时候倾覆了因为它是过时的事物了明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么明和北宋当时完全是两码事北宋的覆灭方式和历朝历代相比都是相当炸裂的类比放在明朝也是朱祁镇留学之后明朝打输北京保卫战才对味靖康发生距离宋朝建立不过余年这个时间节点放在明朝道长还在忙着和大臣讨论亲爹的事放到清朝才是嘉庆九年太上皇清纯帝刚去世五年不到所以北宋结束时还算个身体强健的中年人被流氓来了一闷棍脑震荡在床上躺着不能动虽身体没以前那么好了但再勉强活几年还是没问题的至于明朝到后来展现出来的情况和历朝土地兼并到了不可调和的状态是一样的大一统封建王朝和西方殖民主义那套不同建立后的主要经历不是对外扩张和掠夺而是地主阶级在国家内部去压榨农民天之道损有余而补不足人之道损不足而奉有余每个朝代运行一段时间后都会发现少部分人太有余而大部分人太不足这个时候若统治者遵循天道那就要去损有余而补不足从而让社会达到一个相对平衡的状态如果继续遵循人道问题就积累走到的地步这个考验的并不是想怎么选而是你还有没有能力选就像大明最后老百姓都凄风苦雨逼上绝路国库也没钱军饷都发不出但以私产输助官饷的建议遭到文武百官的强烈抵制提建议的官员被打入大牢崇祯也被这么激烈的场面吓的断了这个念想不了了之既然不能遵循天道那自然就有别人来替天行道了官僚代表地主团体通过朝廷这个架子去吸收百姓的赋税等收不上来的时候就需开始自救打击官僚勋贵就是看地主阶级能不能有人愿意吐点东西出来等这些人没东西往外拿了新一批轮回就开始了明朝把这条路已经走完了属于一个老人器官衰竭浑身上下已经到了什么都不可以正常维持的状态早走晚走就是一两天的事器官衰竭大脑再怎么下指令其它的器官也干不动了所以朱由检跑哪里都一样南明也属于傀儡因为南方那些反清的人互相也看不顺眼精力都放在内讧上所以南明也没撑多久明朝迁不迁根本不重要辫子大清中国在世界上的地位由盛转衰由先进转化为落后是在清代这个历史时期中发生的甚至走到了亡国灭种的边缘在改变民族命运时众人不遗余力地揭露清政权的腐败和黑暗对于全面评价容易有偏颇从历史唯物主义角度清也做了些好事例如把中国许多兄弟民族联在一起把中国的版图定了下来为了要长期统治减低了田赋继而发展了人口文化上融入汉文化促进了各民族中国文化的发展对历史首先是不要割断历史要看到新的东西总是从母胎里生长出来的其次我们的历史遗产中有许多好东西很多民族财富要好好发掘取其精华弃其糟粕再次一定要发扬历史传承下来的优良传统在各种宝贵传统中最重要的是革命的传统如果认为传统文化什么都好一切照搬就会走向复古主义如果认为什么都不好全盘否定就会走向民族虚无主义不但要批判地继承我们的传统文化还要吸收外国的优秀文化吸收外国的东西要加以溶化而不是把中国的东西和外国的东西焊接在一起历史上的统治阶级中也有一些比较进步的人物有的帝王也做过促进历史发展的事情尽管他们对人民的同情是有局限性的但是那时的人民对这些人还是歌颂的但也要做实事求是的评价例如俄国彼得大帝和康熙是同时代的人因为俄国地处欧洲手工业比较发达他汲取了西欧的经验发展了工商业中国当时封建经济的统治比较稳固工商业不发达康熙只致力于发展封建文化清纯帝被儿子恶心原本在庙号体系中有功者称组有德者称宗不是所有皇帝都能有庙号如两汉四百多年个皇帝只有个有庙号西汉太祖高帝太宗文帝世宗武帝中宗宣帝太高中世都是顶级字眼都不是普通君主能拿到的庙号原不能当谥号来用谥号字多夸的骂的好的惨的什么形容都有包罗万象存在的目的就是为了评价君主而庙号是没有评价功能的原本就是给那些有代表性杰出贡献的人才能用的只不过唐代之后谥号注水严重几乎除了亡国之君都是好谥号已经起不到评价君主的功能了这会儿庙号也是严重超发人手一个就导致了庙号反而起到了评价君主好坏的作用判断的方法也不是让你看字而是看同样的庙号上一个使用者是什么德性也就是所谓的判例法六味地黄丸唐中宗使中宗不爱有人用了被老妈收拾被老婆绿最后据说被女儿毒死瞬间贬值再没人用过都觉得晦气宋朝的徽钦度理持有者一个赛一个拉胯有爷俩组团出国访问回不来的有去世后脑袋被做法器的有智商低下荒淫无道亡国南宋的他们悲催的遭遇也让这些庙号全都是一次性使用后世明清帝王用庙号就可看出来君主本身有无问题明英宗听起来挺好但上一位元英宗死在南坡之变只不过他平安跑回来了不然得给他安个徽钦都可以历史上的高宗除了十全老人再上一位就是宋高宗完颜构再前面的重量级唐高宗虽开疆拓土但有治家不严的形象大宋火种金国忠臣赵构这形象太突出了不仅杀了岳飞还对金国称臣总被金国人骂哭让高宗名声扫地嘉庆这么搞也是因为父子关系着实一般乾隆与赵构一样都做过太上皇禅让后对儿子是指手画脚不仅让他给早就死去的哥哥下跪行礼对其能力也是各种质疑总觉得这个接班人没选好还向天公开许愿如果这个儿子没选好就让老天爷早点取其性命收回去再换一个上来本来乾隆开疆拓土假谦虚想要个祖字的可儿子偏偏装糊涂就给个宗还扔了一个高宗上去且乾隆本人生前偏偏最看不起宋高宗也算是唯一可以抱负老爹的机会了晚清塑料姐妹花两宫皇太后慈禧母以子贵但和慈安相比始终还是有嫡庶之别慈禧也心知肚明辛酉政变为防止辅政八大臣权力过大咸丰临终前将自己两枚私章御赏同道堂分给慈安和皇子特别规定凡是皇帝谕旨起首要盖御赏结尾盖同道堂方可生效皇帝的决策没有慈安的批准就不能生效而当时皇子载淳只岁故印章就落入慈禧手中安排是完善的两宫地位虽然崇高但她们充其量是拥有了否决权但议程权力掌握在八大臣手中八大臣也认为两宫不应过问谕旨更不能改否则就是母鸡报晓但两宫不会妥协挡在她们前面的只有一道后宫不得干政的祖宗家法八大臣也不退了在朝堂上纠党忿争声震殿陛直接把小皇帝吓尿了尿了慈安一身此后恭亲王坚定支持两宫太后发动辛酉政变将八大臣一网打尽抢儿子的矛盾两宫太后垂帘的很长一段时间内并没有爆发宫廷斗争慈安在世时慈禧深知自己妃子出身与正宫娘娘慈安不能相提并论事事恭谨年内二人只在三件事上闹出公开化的矛盾第一件事是慈禧宠爱的太监安德海案杀他的上谕由慈安签发可能是对慈禧专断已久的不满借恭亲王和丁宝桢的势头给慈禧当头一棒第二件事是同治帝即位时很小和温柔的慈安比较亲近与忙于政务强势精明的慈禧比较疏远慈禧很不高兴第三件事是同治皇后人选的问题他不喜欢亲妈慈禧相中的女子反而选中慈安相好的阿鲁特氏为皇后导致慈禧的不满公开化野史毒害也仅仅是野史光绪六年慈禧得了重病卧病在床慈安垂帘听政这段时间慈禧很少露面第二年春慈安感寒停饮偶尔违和身体不太舒服没有引起重视不料在第二天夜里突然去世年仅岁臣子们听说时还以为是重症卧床的慈禧感到不可思议还有一些秘史传出吃了慈禧送的点心而死说有先帝密诏要慈安监督慈禧但老实人慈安却将此事告知慈禧并当着慈禧的面烧掉密诏写这本秘史书崇陵传信录的惲毓鼎在慈安去世时连举人都没考中省城都没去过几回上哪打听宫城秘史慈安由病到亡前后不到两天有清史学者认为慈安死于心血管病症慈禧生了重病听政的负担全部压到性情温和的慈安身上事无巨细都要她决定压力陡增原来慈安只对大事拍板慈禧长于处理具体事务按记载言慈安有选择恐惧症见大臣呐呐如无语者或竟月不决一事但慈安轻易不下决策做的决策天下百姓都称赞忽一死故各种谣言风行海内全然放飞慈安之死给慈禧解除了最后一道权力紧箍垂帘逐步到纱幕拿掉再到同坐御塌俨如宋仁宣故事盖前此所未有也丧权辱国难以理解乎近代史清廷腐败无能可能看得大家头晕生气大家之所以生气是潜意识里将满清认作是自己人哀其不幸怒其不争其实只要不把满族中的统治阶级当作自己人思考一切所为顿时就合理起来了大清不是蠢就是单纯的坏中日甲午战争时日本也还是农业国日本历史上第一个钢铁厂八幡制铁所建于年正是拿马关条约的赔款才得以兴建完成工业革命成为强国甲午战争时当时西方预测日本将败毕竟其战争资源极其有限日本发布开诚忠告十八省豪杰书试图号召汉人反清复明声称天与不取反受其咎卿等速起勿为明组所笑这一招真正让慈禧慌了神害怕了转而把保住满清自己的权利放在了最重要的位置起用投降派官员请洋人介入调停战争通过外交谈判慈禧也放下了心因为她了解到日本的根本目标只是要赔款和土地并不是要推翻清政府对大清和慈禧而言钱财和土地民族尊严都只是小事只要能保住权势和地位一切都可以商量所以才有量中华之物力结与国之欢心反正不是自己的东西卖起来一点都不心疼历代的教训先秦商朝因为将过多军队派出去开荒前提老找诸侯要钱要人去开荒而忽略了首都的防御被周部族一举偷家灭国纣王应该是祭祀觉得平民羌人不行得拿贵族诸侯来祭祀才有效而不是昏弃厥肄祀所以被反当然周武王立国年就噶了留下弟弟周公辅政建洛阳护西安自己的儿子所在周王痛定思痛改换策略让诸侯出去开拓疆土在京畿要地周围分封安排自己家人自己则留守大本营此做法前期可谓是一帆风顺然而随着分封越来越多慢慢便不满足自己的一亩三分地开始互相征伐最后连周王室也不放在眼里了结果诸侯坐大灭国秦汉最终秦国做大做强统一了天下看到商周的下场认为都是诸侯的错选择另辟蹊径走前无仅有的中央集权郡县制不分封了哪来诸侯造反权力掌控在中央分派流官管理地方避免地方官吏做大做强结果流官没有与帝国同存亡的觉悟一点不忠诚光速投降换个主子继续当流官作为流官出身的刘邦继续吸取秦朝的经验觉得还是有必要分封诸侯但诸侯得是自己亲儿子即便天下大乱不管谁赢天下还在刘氏手中可低估了权利带来的欲望权利过大皇权就受到威胁权利过小就容易把他们逼向造反结果就爆发了七王之乱到了武帝想想咱还是搞郡县制度心不齐的问题让儒家宣传造神并将矛头一致对外赫赫战功解决民众和官员的归属感却没注意有外戚内鬼这个内鬼就是王莽篡了孙女婿的位西汉亡到了东汉小皇帝不知道该信谁了在外戚门阀压力下认为太监没根最不可能造反可太监掌权后更不让人省心借权肆意妄为天下鸡犬不宁紧接着爆发了大规模的起义朝廷掌控不了局面就将权利下放给地方自行解决结果叛乱解决了地方又做大了皇帝也成了军阀的掌中玩物各路军阀一顿征战最终被司马家族偷了家魏晋南北朝隋唐两晋南北朝包括隋唐开始探索新道路可编纂为一本论皇帝的花样死法之前的禅让皇帝还能善终司马家族再次汲取曹魏的教训认为曹魏灭亡由于皇族太过衰弱魏文帝大肆打压家族势力才给了他人偷家机会于是晋朝就冒天下之大不讳大肆分封自己家族成员以壮大势力相当于回到了分封制度很快报应就来了八王之乱降低了晋朝的实力被外族偷家灭国在南北对立局面很久后隋最终一统天下再次汲取前面的教训认为很多朝代灭亡在于世家大族权利过大威胁到了皇权于是便决定削除老牌贵族势力诞生了科举制度通过选举有能者居之然而这种做法大大削弱了老牌贵族的势力在世家大族的推动下加上隋炀帝的过度消耗所引发的一系列问题很快民怨沸腾最终被唐取代唐在逐步落实科举制的同时走汉的路数对外军功随着土地兼并领土大摊子难以激励维系不转向防守转而对抗进攻财政上不堪重负衍生出了一个新的官职节度使可没想到边镇军力过强节度使权利过大直接造了皇帝的反叛乱虽被平息但大唐已开始走下坡路了最终被朱温篡取政权天下继续进入混乱时期五代十国乱了几十年直到北宋的建立宋元明宋吸取前朝各种教训首先军队集中到首都既防偷家又防地方武装力量造反饯行重文轻武的方针打压武人武将空有一身力气本领无用武之地大规模科举挑动平民与世家互斗再次太监后宫不得干政做了所有自认为正确的事情可大肆打压武将造成忽略了外敌最终被一群游牧民族取代朱明再次汲取前面的经验教训重点加了防外敌首都也迁往了边防站搞个天子守国门防外族和看家二合一这次外敌被安排的老老实实的最终却后院起火被农民起义军一举偷家清清朝再次吸取教训处理内在问题和外在隐患农民起义都没闹出什么幺蛾子疆域也开拓的够大于是当时的统治者格外自信连前来通商的外邦都打发了回去清在历代中央集权制度下国家治理问题做的最好除了制度顽疾贪腐注定解决不了其它问题都克制的不错争夺储位的问题被解决了外戚宦官藩王都没有民族问题解决的最好的民生新增人丁永不加赋看似海内生平农业帝国在此情况下则不思进取没有改革动力不像工业社会不断要开发新东西农业经济没什么新产品要做可没想到海那边科技正如火如荼的发展最终问题就来自海外鸦片战争被降维打击被外国联军强开大门我们的经验教训又多了一条落后就要挨打真理只在大炮的射程之内从南向北统一难南北之间不是地理差异也不是骑兵水军的差异能成功的都是新政权讨伐旧势力新陈代谢整个中国的历史是以新统旧南方通常是一个旧政权跑过去的华北难守就往淮河长江以南跑黄河太行山一突破一马平川呵呵了基于旧政权的底子哪怕中兴一下还是不够有生命力这些人本身就是安逸惯了的才被打到南边的安逸富足就享受想他们一下子就洗心革面不现实如东晋南宋就没有一个新开创王朝的生机勃勃的样子史观国家的内容是什么国家的内容是人民知识分子的臭毛病就是把残酷的历史审美化天下兴亡匹夫有责国家兴亡匹夫无责汉唐什么盛世唐巅峰人口版图比现在还大一直边患用兵去时里正与裹头归来头白还戍边汉武帝人口大军北击匈奴步兵骑兵这里面精兵可能辅兵万后勤兵预计有万加上全面的后勤加上武帝用兵年在位年几乎全国男人都得参与进去被俘了失踪了全家则抄没为奴打完匈奴全国人口减半看汉乐府当兵要当一辈子十五从军征八十始得归道逢乡里人家中有阿谁都太残忍了中国历史的解读特别拿人民不当人的时候当盛世把自己放在帝王世家的角度解读历史都把自己带入秦皇汉武低一点就带入霍去病其实更多是战死沙场的小兵文治武功文治商鞅的改革制度设计才叫文治能对历史和未来人的思想社会的结构利益分配做改变才叫文治武功开朝代开疆拓土文治比武功更难汉文帝宋仁宗只是内政牛掰的帝王干内政保姆肯定也能干好只是他们干了更难的事宋的科举文官制度对当今影响很大但也亡了天下不是重整乱局的情况一般是先有文治才有武功汉唐为何那么暴躁因为国家只有一个上升路去打仗牛掰的人都去打仗了宋朝都去考试了可是武功就悲剧了民族代码为中华民族写过底层代码搭架子的人周公孔子老子商鞅秦皇汉武宋祖科举文治朱重八再统北方但也设计了很多不好的制度近代就是教员写入马克思主义额外参考百家号日落长安终结大唐盛世的边患藩镇与宦官',
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class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/06/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">六月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">2</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/04/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">四月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/03/"><span class="card-archive-list-date">三月 2025</span><div class="card-archive-list-count-group"><span class="card-archive-list-count">1</span><span>篇</span></div></a></li><li class="card-archive-list-item"><a class="card-archive-list-link" href="https://github.com/archives/2025/02/"><span 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class="post-meta-categories"><span class="post-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-inbox post-meta-icon"></i><a class="post-meta-categories" href="https://github.com/categories/%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0/" itemprop="url">读书笔记</a></span><span class="article-meta tags"><a class="article-meta__tags" href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1" itemprop="url"> <span> <i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-hashtag"></i>历史</span></a></span></div></div><h1 class="post-title" itemprop="name headline">历史的棋局</h1><div id="post-meta"><div class="meta-firstline"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-calendar-days post-meta-icon"></i><span class="post-meta-label">发表于</span><time class="post-meta-date-created" itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2023-12-11T08:38:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-12-11 16:38:00">2023-12-11</time><span class="post-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history post-meta-icon"></i><span class="post-meta-label">更新于</span><time class="post-meta-date-updated" itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></span></div><div class="meta-secondline"><span class="post-meta-separator"></span><span class="post-meta-wordcount"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-file-word post-meta-icon" title="文章字数"></i><span class="post-meta-label" title="文章字数">字数总计:</span><span class="word-count" title="文章字数">34.9k</span><span class="post-meta-separator"></span><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-clock post-meta-icon" title="阅读时长"></i><span class="post-meta-label" title="阅读时长">阅读时长:</span><span>100分钟</span></span><span class="post-meta-separator"></span><span class="post-meta-pv-cv" id="" data-flag-title="历史的棋局"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-fw-eye post-meta-icon"></i><span class="post-meta-label" title="阅读量">阅读量:</span><span id="busuanzi_value_page_pv"><i 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id="blog-container"><div class="layout" id="content-inner"><div id="post"><article class="post-content" id="article-container" itemscope itemtype="https://blog.diffday.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html"><header><a class="post-meta-categories" href="https://github.com/categories/%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0/" itemprop="url">读书笔记</a><a href="https://github.com/tags/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2/" tabindex="-1" itemprop="url">历史</a><h1 id="CrawlerTitle" itemprop="name headline">历史的棋局</h1><span itemprop="author" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">DiffDay</span><time itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2023-12-11T08:38:00.000Z" title="发表于 2023-12-11 16:38:00">2023-12-11</time><time itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></header><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/hint.css/2.4.1/hint.min.css"><p><img src= "data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" onerror="this.onerror=null,this.src=&quot;/img/404.jpg&quot;" data-lazy-src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" alt="历史的棋局"></p>
 <p>学历史不是记时间，那叫记事本存储器，得有纵向跨时空的穿插和逻辑。</p>
 <h1>先秦的棋谱</h1>
 <p>人文家国，历久弥新。从周代的历史缩影都能窥见后代棋局的棋谱大意。</p>
@@ -693,16 +693,20 @@ <h2 id="明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么">明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬
 </blockquote>
 <p>每个朝代运行一段时间后，都会发现少部分人太有余而大部分人太不足，这个时候若统治者遵循天道，那就要去损有余而补不足，从而让社会达到一个相对平衡的状态，如果继续遵循人道，问题就积累走到over的地步。这个考验的并不是想怎么选，而是你还有没有能力选。就像大明最后，老百姓都凄风苦雨逼上绝路，国库也没钱，军饷都发不出，但以私产输助官饷的建议遭到文武百官的强烈抵制，提建议的官员被打入大牢，崇祯也被这么激烈的场面吓的断了这个念想，不了了之。<font color="blur">既然不能遵循天道，那自然就有别人来&quot;替天行道&quot;了</font>。</p>
 <p>官僚代表地主团体，通过朝廷这个架子去吸收百姓的赋税，等收不上来的时候就需开始自救，打击官僚勋贵，就是看地主阶级能不能有人愿意吐点东西出来。等这些人没东西往外拿了，新一批轮回就开始了。<strong>明朝把这条路已经走完了，属于一个老人器官衰竭浑身上下已经到了什么都不可以正常维持的状态。早走晚走就是一两天的事，器官衰竭，大脑再怎么下指令，其它的器官也干不动了</strong>。所以朱由检跑哪里都一样。南明也属于傀儡，因为南方那些反清的人互相也看不顺眼，精力都放在内讧上，所以南明也没撑多久。明朝迁不迁根本不重要。</p>
-<h1>清纯帝被儿子恶心</h1>
+<h1>辫子大清</h1>
+<p>中国在世界上的地位，由盛转衰，由先进转化为落后，是在清代这个历史时期中发生的，甚至走到了亡国灭种的边缘。在改变民族命运时众人不遗余力地揭露清政权的腐败和黑暗，对于全面评价容易有偏颇。从历史唯物主义角度，清也做了些好事。例如把中国许多兄弟民族联在一起，把中国的版图定了下来。为了要长期统治，减低了田赋，继而发展了人口。文化上融入汉文化，促进了各民族中国文化的发展。</p>
+<p>对历史首先是不要割断历史，要看到新的东西总是从母胎里生长出来的。其次，我们的历史遗产中有许多好东西，很多民族财富要好好发掘，取其精华，弃其糟粕。再次，一定要发扬历史传承下来的优良传统。在各种宝贵传统中，最重要的是革命的传统。<mark>如果认为传统文化什么都好，一切照搬，就会走向复古主义；如果认为什么都不好，全盘否定，就会走向民族虚无主义</mark>。不但要批判地继承我们的传统文化，还要吸收外国的优秀文化，吸收外国的东西要加以溶化，而不是把中国的东西和外国的东西焊接在一起。</p>
+<p>历史上的统治阶级中也有一些比较进步的人物，<mark>有的帝王也做过促进历史发展的事情，尽管他们对人民的同情是有局限性的</mark>，但是那时的人民对这些人还是歌颂的，但也要做实事求是的评价，例如俄国彼得大帝和康熙是同时代的人，因为俄国地处欧洲，手工业比较发达，他汲取了西欧的经验，发展了工商业。中国当时封建经济的统治比较稳固，工商业不发达，康熙只致力于发展封建文化。</p>
+<h2 id="清纯帝被儿子恶心">清纯帝被儿子恶心</h2>
 <p>原本在庙号体系中，有功者称组，有德者称宗，不是所有皇帝都能有庙号，如两汉四百多年28个皇帝只有7个有庙号。西汉太祖高帝，太宗文帝，世宗武帝，中宗宣帝。“太高中世”都是顶级字眼，都不是普通君主能拿到的。庙号原不能当谥号来用，谥号字多，夸的骂的好的惨的什么形容都有，包罗万象，存在的目的就是为了评价君主。而庙号是没有评价功能的，原本就是给那些有代表性杰出贡献的人才能用的，只不过<font color="tomato">唐代之后，谥号注水严重，几乎除了亡国之君都是好谥号，已经起不到评价君主的功能了。这会儿庙号也是严重超发，人手一个，就导致了庙号反而起到了评价君主好坏的作用</font>。</p>
 <p>判断的方法也不是让你看字，而是看同样的庙号上一个使用者是什么德性，也就是所谓的判例法。六味地黄丸唐中宗使中宗不爱有人用了，被老妈收拾，被老婆绿，最后据说被女儿毒死，瞬间贬值，再没人用过，都觉得晦气。宋朝的徽钦度理持有者一个赛一个拉胯，有爷俩组团出国访问回不来的，有去世后脑袋被做法器的，有智商低下荒淫无道亡国南宋的，他们悲催的遭遇也让这些庙号全都是一次性使用。后世明清帝王用庙号就可看出来君主本身有无问题。</p>
 <p>明英宗听起来挺好，但上一位元英宗死在南坡之变，只不过他平安跑回来了不然得给他安个徽钦都可以。历史上的高宗除了十全老人，再上一位就是宋高宗完颜构，再前面的重量级唐高宗虽开疆拓土但有治家不严的形象。大宋火种金国忠臣赵构这形象太突出了，不仅杀了岳飞还对金国称臣，总被金国人骂哭，让高宗名声扫地。</p>
 <p>嘉庆这么搞也是因为父子关系着实一般，乾隆与赵构一样都做过太上皇，禅让后对儿子是指手画脚，不仅让他给早就死去的哥哥下跪行礼，对其能力也是各种质疑，总觉得这个接班人没选好，还向天公开许愿，如果这个儿子没选好就让老天爷早点取其性命收回去，再换一个上来。本来乾隆开疆拓土假谦虚想要个祖字的，可儿子偏偏装糊涂就给个宗，还扔了一个高宗上去，且乾隆本人生前偏偏最看不起宋高宗，也算是唯一可以抱负老爹的机会了。</p>
-<h1>晚清塑料姐妹花</h1>
+<h2 id="晚清塑料姐妹花">晚清塑料姐妹花</h2>
 <p>两宫皇太后，慈禧母以子贵，但和慈安相比始终还是有嫡庶之别，慈禧也心知肚明。</p>
-<h2 id="辛酉政变">辛酉政变</h2>
+<h3 id="辛酉政变">辛酉政变</h3>
 <p>为防止辅政八大臣权力过大，咸丰临终前将自己两枚私章：御赏，同道堂 分给慈安和皇子。特别规定，凡是皇帝谕旨，起首要盖&quot;御赏&quot;，结尾盖“同道堂”，方可生效。<u>皇帝的决策没有慈安的批准就不能生效，而当时皇子载淳只6岁，故印章就落入慈禧手中</u>。<font color="blur">安排是完善的，两宫地位虽然崇高，但她们充其量是拥有了否决权，但议程权力掌握在八大臣手中</font>。八大臣也认为，两宫不应过问谕旨，更不能改，否则就是母鸡报晓。但两宫不会妥协，挡在她们前面的，只有一道“后宫不得干政”的祖宗家法。八大臣也不退了，在朝堂上纠党忿争，声震殿陛，直接把小皇帝吓尿了，尿了慈安一身。此后恭亲王坚定支持两宫太后，发动辛酉政变，将八大臣一网打尽。</p>
-<h2 id="抢儿子的矛盾">抢儿子的矛盾</h2>
+<h3 id="抢儿子的矛盾">抢儿子的矛盾</h3>
 <p>两宫太后垂帘的很长一段时间内，并没有爆发宫廷斗争，慈安在世时，慈禧深知自己妃子出身，与正宫娘娘慈安不能相提并论，事事恭谨。20年内，二人只在三件事上闹出公开化的矛盾。</p>
 <ol>
 <li>
@@ -715,16 +719,16 @@ <h2 id="抢儿子的矛盾">抢儿子的矛盾</h2>
 <p>第三件事是同治皇后人选的问题，他不喜欢亲妈慈禧相中的女子，反而选中慈安相好的阿鲁特氏为皇后，导致慈禧的不满公开化。</p>
 </li>
 </ol>
-<h2 id="野史毒害，也仅仅是野史">野史毒害，也仅仅是野史</h2>
+<h3 id="野史毒害，也仅仅是野史">野史毒害，也仅仅是野史</h3>
 <p>光绪六年，慈禧得了重病，卧病在床，慈安垂帘听政，这段时间慈禧很少露面，第二年春，慈安“感寒停饮，偶尔违和”，身体不太舒服，没有引起重视，不料在第二天夜里突然去世，年仅45岁，臣子们听说时还以为是重症卧床的慈禧，感到不可思议。</p>
 <p>还有一些秘史传出，吃了慈禧送的点心而死，说有先帝密诏要慈安监督慈禧，但老实人慈安却将此事告知慈禧，并当着慈禧的面烧掉密诏。<u>写这本秘史书《崇陵传信录》的惲毓鼎 在慈安去世时，连举人都没考中，省城都没去过几回，上哪打听宫城秘史</u>。</p>
 <p>慈安由病到亡，前后不到两天，有<u>清史学者认为，慈安死于心血管病症。慈禧生了重病，听政的负担全部压到性情温和的慈安身上，事无巨细都要她决定，压力陡增</u>。原来慈安只对大事拍板，慈禧长于处理具体事务，按记载言，慈安有选择恐惧症：见大臣，“呐呐如无语者”，“或竟月不决一事”。但慈安轻易不下决策，做的决策天下百姓都称赞，忽一死，故各种谣言风行海内。</p>
-<h2 id="全然放飞">全然放飞</h2>
+<h3 id="全然放飞">全然放飞</h3>
 <p>慈安之死，给慈禧解除了最后一道权力紧箍，垂帘逐步到纱幕拿掉，再到同坐御塌，俨如宋仁宣故事，盖前此所未有也。</p>
-<h1>丧权辱国难以理解乎</h1>
-<p>近代史清廷腐败无能可能看得大家头晕，生气。<strong>大家之所以生气，是潜意识里将满清认作是自己人，哀其不幸，怒其不争。其实只要不把他当作自己人思考，他的一切所为顿时就合理起来了</strong>。</p>
+<h2 id="丧权辱国难以理解乎">丧权辱国难以理解乎</h2>
+<p>近代史清廷腐败无能可能看得大家头晕，生气。<strong>大家之所以生气，是潜意识里将满清认作是自己人，哀其不幸，怒其不争。其实只要不把满族中的统治阶级当作自己人思考，一切所为顿时就合理起来了</strong>。</p>
 <p>大清不是蠢，就是单纯的坏。<font color="blur">中日甲午战争时，日本也还是农业国，日本历史上第一个钢铁厂八幡制铁所，建于 1897 年，正是拿马关条约的赔款才得以兴建，完成工业革命，成为强国</font>。</p>
-<p>甲午战争时，当时西方预测日本将败，毕竟其战争资源极其有限。日本发布《开诚忠告十八省豪杰书》，试图号召汉人反清复明。声称「天与不取，反受其咎，卿等速起，勿为明组所笑」，这一招，真正让慈禧慌了神，害怕了，转而把保住满清自己的权利放在了最重要的位置。起用投降派官员，请洋人介入调停战争。通过外交谈判，慈禧也放下了心，因为她了解到日本的根本目标只是要赔款和土地，并不是要推翻清政府。对大清和慈禧而言，钱财和土地，民族尊严都只是小事，只要能保住权势和地位，一切都可以商量。所以才有量中华之物力，结与国之欢心。反正不是自己的东西，卖起来一点都不心疼。</p>
+<p>甲午战争时，当时西方预测日本将败，毕竟其战争资源极其有限。日本发布《开诚忠告十八省豪杰书》，试图号召汉人反清复明。声称「天与不取，反受其咎，卿等速起，勿为明组所笑」，这一招，真正让慈禧慌了神，害怕了，转而把保住满清自己的权利放在了最重要的位置。起用投降派官员，请洋人介入调停战争。通过外交谈判，慈禧也放下了心，因为她了解到日本的根本目标只是要赔款和土地，并不是要推翻清政府。对<mark>大清和慈禧而言，钱财和土地，民族尊严都只是小事，只要能保住权势和地位，一切都可以商量</mark>。所以才有量中华之物力，结与国之欢心。反正不是自己的东西，卖起来一点都不心疼。</p>
 <h1>历代的教训</h1>
 <h2 id="先秦">先秦</h2>
 <p>商朝因为将过多军队派出去开荒（前提老找诸侯要钱要人去开荒）而忽略了首都的防御，被周部族一举偷家灭国（纣王应该是祭祀觉得平民羌人不行，得拿贵族诸侯来祭祀才有效，而不是『昏弃厥肄祀』，所以被反。当然周武王立国2年就噶了，留下弟弟周公辅政，建洛阳护西安-自己的儿子所在），周王痛定思痛，改换策略，<u>让诸侯出去开拓疆土，在京畿要地周围分封安排自己家人，自己则留守大本营</u>。此做法前期可谓是一帆风顺，然而随着分封越来越多，慢慢便不满足自己的一亩三分地，开始互相征伐，最后连周王室也不放在眼里了。<u>结果诸侯坐大，灭国</u>。</p>
@@ -762,7 +766,7 @@ <h1>文治 vs 武功</h1>
 <h1>民族代码</h1>
 <p>为中华民族写过底层代码（搭架子）的人：周公、孔子、老子、商鞅，秦皇汉武，宋祖（科举文治），朱重八（再统北方，但也设计了很多不好的制度），近代就是教员写入马克思主义。</p>
 <h1>额外参考</h1>
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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">先秦的棋谱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9B%E6%94%BF%E5%B1%82%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">军政层面</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%B1%82%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济层面</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">削藩也是手艺活</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E9%AB%98%E5%B8%9D%E5%89%8A%E8%97%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉高帝削藩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%96%E5%85%B8%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E9%9D%A2%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">后世典型的反面案例</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E5%BA%B7%E7%86%99"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">清康熙</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E5%BB%BA%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">明建文</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%96%E9%9A%BE%E4%B9%8B%E5%BD%B9%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%B7%B1%E5%B1%82%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">靖难之役背后的深层矛盾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">两汉时光</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A6%E5%B8%9D%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B2%A1%E5%83%8F%E7%A7%A6%E6%9C%9D%E4%B8%80%E6%A0%B7%E5%B4%A9%E6%BA%83"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">武帝为何没像秦朝一样崩溃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E6%B1%89%E5%90%8A%E6%89%93%E4%B8%9C%E6%B1%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西汉吊打东汉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国时代文化形态斗争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E6%B1%89%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%83%E6%9F%84%E6%8B%89%E6%89%AF%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">东汉的权柄拉扯战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E5%AD%A6%E5%92%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E4%BB%8E%E5%AD%A6%E9%98%80%E7%BB%9F%E6%B2%BB%E4%B8%8B%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经学和文学从学阀统治下分离</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%B7%BE%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄巾之乱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E9%AD%8F%E7%88%B1%E5%86%99%E8%AF%97%EF%BC%8C%E8%9C%80%E6%B1%89%E5%A4%9A%E8%AE%BA%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹魏爱写诗，蜀汉多论文</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E9%AD%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%90%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹魏的运气</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">南北朝与隋唐</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E5%89%8D%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%96"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋前乱世</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E9%BD%90%E9%AB%98%E5%AE%B6%E2%80%93%E9%B2%9C%E5%8D%91%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E6%B1%89%E6%97%8F%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">北齐高家–鲜卑化的汉族政权</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B7%E9%AB%98%E6%A5%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">起高楼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B4%E5%AE%BE%E5%AE%A2"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宴宾客</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A5%BC%E5%A1%8C%E4%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">楼塌了</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E5%91%A8%E5%AE%87%E6%96%87%E5%AE%B6%E2%80%93%E6%B1%89%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E9%B2%9C%E5%8D%91%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">北周宇文家–汉化的鲜卑政权</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E7%95%99%E9%80%83%E4%BA%A1%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D%E5%8C%97%E9%AD%8F%E4%BA%8C%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">收留逃亡皇帝北魏二分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E9%99%87%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">关陇改革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%9C%E5%85%B5%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">府兵制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%AC%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">关中本位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E6%94%B6%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">改革收效</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E6%B0%94%E7%88%86%E6%A3%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">运气爆棚</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E5%91%A8%E8%A2%AB%E5%A4%A7%E9%9A%8B%E6%91%98%E4%BA%86%E6%9E%9C%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">5.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">北周被大隋摘了果子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%AF%E6%99%AF%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%90%85%E5%B1%80%E8%BF%90%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">侯景之乱的搅局运气</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A7%E8%A1%8D%E8%80%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%97%B4%E5%91%86%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">萧衍老年痴呆？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%87%E8%91%A9%E2%80%9D%E5%BA%9F%E5%A4%AA%E5%AD%90%E2%80%9C%E5%8A%A9%E6%94%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">奇葩”废太子“助攻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F%E9%80%86%E8%BD%AC"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">力量逆转</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%87%E6%97%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%8A%E8%A7%8E"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">皇族的觊觎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E5%8C%97%E5%AE%9A%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">南北定局</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A7%E6%B0%8F%E9%97%A8%E9%98%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">萧氏门阀</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E6%9D%A8%E5%AE%B6%E7%A5%96%E4%BC%A0%E6%AE%8B%E6%9A%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋杨家祖传残暴</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%A0%E6%88%AE%E5%B9%B3%E6%AF%81%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">屠戮平毁城市</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%85%B4%E5%9C%9F%E6%9C%A8%E6%95%85%E6%84%8F%E6%B6%88%E8%80%97%E6%B0%91%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大兴土木故意消耗民力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%93%A6%E5%B2%97%E7%9B%9F%E4%B8%BB%E8%A2%AB%E6%9D%8E%E6%B8%8A%E5%BE%97%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">瓦岗盟主被李渊得了天下</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9D%E5%8F%9B%E5%A4%B1%E8%B4%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">初叛失败</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%93%A6%E5%B2%97%E7%A7%B0%E7%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">瓦岗称王</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%9B%E9%98%B3%E6%B6%88%E8%80%97%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">5.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">洛阳消耗战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E2%80%9C%E9%AA%81%E6%9E%9C%E2%80%9D%E5%86%9B%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E6%88%98%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">5.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">“骁果”军影响战局</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A7%E6%A6%BB%E4%B9%8B%E4%BE%A7%E5%B2%82%E5%AE%B9%E4%BB%96%E4%BA%BA%E9%85%A3%E7%9D%A1"><span class="toc-number">5.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E6%89%BF%E4%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E5%A4%AA%E5%AD%90%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%BF%98%E8%B0%8B%E5%8F%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">李承乾为太子为何还谋反</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%8B%E5%AB%A1%E7%AB%8B%E9%95%BF%E7%AB%8B%E8%B4%A4"><span class="toc-number">5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">立嫡立长立贤</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%8F%B2%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">安史之乱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%90%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%B0%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">唐的衰落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%9C%E5%85%B5%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%B4%A9%E5%9D%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">府兵制的崩坏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8A%82%E5%BA%A6%E4%BD%BF%E5%89%B2%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">5.5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">节度使割据</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E5%AE%9D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">5.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">天宝危机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%A1%E5%85%94%E6%AD%BB%E8%B5%B0%E7%8B%97%E7%83%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">狡兔死走狗烹</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">赵宋：一个不正的正统王朝</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%98%E6%88%91%E6%B2%B3%E5%B1%B1%E8%8E%AB%E9%A1%BB%E6%9C%89"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">还我河山莫须有</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%9A%E5%AE%9A%E8%BF%8E%E5%9B%9E%E4%BA%8C%E5%B8%9D%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%AF%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">坚定迎回二帝是误解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%AB%E9%A1%BB%E6%9C%89"><span class="toc-number">6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">莫须有</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E6%8D%A3%E9%BB%84%E9%BE%99%E5%BA%9C%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">直捣黄龙府？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">6.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜利下的风险</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%89%E5%86%9B%E6%AD%A6%E8%A3%85%E4%B8%8D%E5%BA%94%E9%AB%98%E6%9C%9F%E5%BE%85"><span class="toc-number">6.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">义军武装不应高期待</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A3%AB%E7%BB%85%E5%A0%95%E8%90%BD%E9%82%80%E8%AF%B7%E5%BC%82%E6%97%8F%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83%E7%BB%9F%E6%B2%BB"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">士绅堕落邀请异族政权统治</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%8A%97%E7%8E%8B%E5%AE%89%E7%9F%B3%E5%8F%98%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对抗王安石变法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E8%90%8C%E8%8A%BD"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融化的萌芽</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%9B%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的进程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E7%A8%8E%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">财税发展</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%82%E6%97%8F%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83%E4%B8%8E%E5%A3%AB%E7%BB%85%E5%90%88%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">6.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">异族政权与士绅合流</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">短命蒙元</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%90%89%E6%80%9D%E6%B1%97%E7%9A%84%E7%8B%AC%E4%B8%80%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成吉思汗的独一性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%83%E6%88%B7%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">7.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">千户制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E8%A3%82"><span class="toc-number">7.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分裂</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%85%83%E7%AE%97%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%8B%E6%9C%9D%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙元算中国王朝么</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E6%88%98%E5%8A%9B%E5%BC%BA%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙古战力强么</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E9%99%A4%E8%97%A9%E9%95%87%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%8B%E7%BA%BF%E5%B0%B1%E4%BA%A1%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">消除藩镇皇帝一下线就亡国</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">朱明王朝</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E6%9C%9D%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">明朝建立的意义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E6%9C%A8%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%9E%E9%94%81%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">土木之变的连锁历史</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E4%BF%9D%E5%8D%AB%E6%88%98%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%BA%E9%97%A8%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">北京保卫战与夺门之变</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E5%85%B5%E5%A4%87%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">调兵备战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%82%A8%E4%BD%8D%E6%8B%89%E9%94%AF"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">储位拉锯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%BA%E9%97%A8%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">夺门之变</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E6%9C%A8%E5%A0%A1%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E7%93%A6%E5%89%8C%E4%B8%8E%E9%9E%91%E9%9D%BC"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">土木堡后的瓦剌与鞑靼</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%9B%E6%9E%81%E8%80%8C%E8%A1%B0"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">盛极而衰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E5%AE%B6%E6%97%8F%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E5%AE%9A%E9%BC%8E%E8%8D%89%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄金家族再次定鼎草原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%93%A6%E5%89%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">瓦剌的终局</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E6%9C%9D%E5%8D%97%E8%BF%81%E8%83%BD%E5%83%8F%E5%8D%97%E5%AE%8B%E9%82%A3%E6%A0%B7%E7%86%AC%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">清纯帝被儿子恶心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">晚清塑料姐妹花</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BE%9B%E9%85%89%E6%94%BF%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">辛酉政变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A2%E5%84%BF%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">抢儿子的矛盾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8E%E5%8F%B2%E6%AF%92%E5%AE%B3%EF%BC%8C%E4%B9%9F%E4%BB%85%E4%BB%85%E6%98%AF%E9%87%8E%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">野史毒害，也仅仅是野史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%84%B6%E6%94%BE%E9%A3%9E"><span class="toc-number">10.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">全然放飞</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">丧权辱国难以理解乎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">历代的教训</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">先秦</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E6%B1%89"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦汉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B%E5%8D%97%E5%8C%97%E6%9C%9D%E9%9A%8B%E5%94%90"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏晋南北朝隋唐</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E5%85%83%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋元明</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85"><span class="toc-number">12.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">清</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">从南向北统一难？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">史观</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">文治 vs 武功</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">先秦的棋谱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9B%E6%94%BF%E5%B1%82%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">军政层面</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%B1%82%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济层面</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">削藩也是手艺活</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E9%AB%98%E5%B8%9D%E5%89%8A%E8%97%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉高帝削藩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%96%E5%85%B8%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E9%9D%A2%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">后世典型的反面案例</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E5%BA%B7%E7%86%99"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">清康熙</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E5%BB%BA%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">明建文</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%96%E9%9A%BE%E4%B9%8B%E5%BD%B9%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%B7%B1%E5%B1%82%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">靖难之役背后的深层矛盾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">两汉时光</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A6%E5%B8%9D%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B2%A1%E5%83%8F%E7%A7%A6%E6%9C%9D%E4%B8%80%E6%A0%B7%E5%B4%A9%E6%BA%83"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">武帝为何没像秦朝一样崩溃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E6%B1%89%E5%90%8A%E6%89%93%E4%B8%9C%E6%B1%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西汉吊打东汉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国时代文化形态斗争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E6%B1%89%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%83%E6%9F%84%E6%8B%89%E6%89%AF%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">东汉的权柄拉扯战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E5%AD%A6%E5%92%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E4%BB%8E%E5%AD%A6%E9%98%80%E7%BB%9F%E6%B2%BB%E4%B8%8B%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经学和文学从学阀统治下分离</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%B7%BE%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄巾之乱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E9%AD%8F%E7%88%B1%E5%86%99%E8%AF%97%EF%BC%8C%E8%9C%80%E6%B1%89%E5%A4%9A%E8%AE%BA%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹魏爱写诗，蜀汉多论文</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E9%AD%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%90%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹魏的运气</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">南北朝与隋唐</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E5%89%8D%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%96"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋前乱世</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E9%BD%90%E9%AB%98%E5%AE%B6%E2%80%93%E9%B2%9C%E5%8D%91%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E6%B1%89%E6%97%8F%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">北齐高家–鲜卑化的汉族政权</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B7%E9%AB%98%E6%A5%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">起高楼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B4%E5%AE%BE%E5%AE%A2"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宴宾客</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A5%BC%E5%A1%8C%E4%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">楼塌了</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E5%91%A8%E5%AE%87%E6%96%87%E5%AE%B6%E2%80%93%E6%B1%89%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E9%B2%9C%E5%8D%91%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">北周宇文家–汉化的鲜卑政权</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E7%95%99%E9%80%83%E4%BA%A1%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D%E5%8C%97%E9%AD%8F%E4%BA%8C%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">收留逃亡皇帝北魏二分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E9%99%87%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">关陇改革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%9C%E5%85%B5%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">府兵制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%AC%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">关中本位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E6%94%B6%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">改革收效</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E6%B0%94%E7%88%86%E6%A3%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">运气爆棚</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E5%91%A8%E8%A2%AB%E5%A4%A7%E9%9A%8B%E6%91%98%E4%BA%86%E6%9E%9C%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">5.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">北周被大隋摘了果子</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%AF%E6%99%AF%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%90%85%E5%B1%80%E8%BF%90%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">侯景之乱的搅局运气</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A7%E8%A1%8D%E8%80%81%E5%B9%B4%E7%97%B4%E5%91%86%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">萧衍老年痴呆？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%87%E8%91%A9%E2%80%9D%E5%BA%9F%E5%A4%AA%E5%AD%90%E2%80%9C%E5%8A%A9%E6%94%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">奇葩”废太子“助攻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F%E9%80%86%E8%BD%AC"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">力量逆转</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%87%E6%97%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%8A%E8%A7%8E"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">皇族的觊觎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E5%8C%97%E5%AE%9A%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">南北定局</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A7%E6%B0%8F%E9%97%A8%E9%98%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">萧氏门阀</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E6%9D%A8%E5%AE%B6%E7%A5%96%E4%BC%A0%E6%AE%8B%E6%9A%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋杨家祖传残暴</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%A0%E6%88%AE%E5%B9%B3%E6%AF%81%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">屠戮平毁城市</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%85%B4%E5%9C%9F%E6%9C%A8%E6%95%85%E6%84%8F%E6%B6%88%E8%80%97%E6%B0%91%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大兴土木故意消耗民力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%93%A6%E5%B2%97%E7%9B%9F%E4%B8%BB%E8%A2%AB%E6%9D%8E%E6%B8%8A%E5%BE%97%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">瓦岗盟主被李渊得了天下</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9D%E5%8F%9B%E5%A4%B1%E8%B4%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">初叛失败</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%93%A6%E5%B2%97%E7%A7%B0%E7%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">瓦岗称王</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%9B%E9%98%B3%E6%B6%88%E8%80%97%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">5.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">洛阳消耗战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E2%80%9C%E9%AA%81%E6%9E%9C%E2%80%9D%E5%86%9B%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E6%88%98%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">5.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">“骁果”军影响战局</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A7%E6%A6%BB%E4%B9%8B%E4%BE%A7%E5%B2%82%E5%AE%B9%E4%BB%96%E4%BA%BA%E9%85%A3%E7%9D%A1"><span class="toc-number">5.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E6%89%BF%E4%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E5%A4%AA%E5%AD%90%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%BF%98%E8%B0%8B%E5%8F%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">李承乾为太子为何还谋反</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%8B%E5%AB%A1%E7%AB%8B%E9%95%BF%E7%AB%8B%E8%B4%A4"><span class="toc-number">5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">立嫡立长立贤</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%8F%B2%E4%B9%8B%E4%B9%B1"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">安史之乱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%90%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%B0%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">唐的衰落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%9C%E5%85%B5%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%B4%A9%E5%9D%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">府兵制的崩坏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8A%82%E5%BA%A6%E4%BD%BF%E5%89%B2%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">5.5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">节度使割据</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E5%AE%9D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">5.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">天宝危机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%A1%E5%85%94%E6%AD%BB%E8%B5%B0%E7%8B%97%E7%83%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">狡兔死走狗烹</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">赵宋：一个不正的正统王朝</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%98%E6%88%91%E6%B2%B3%E5%B1%B1%E8%8E%AB%E9%A1%BB%E6%9C%89"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">还我河山莫须有</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%9A%E5%AE%9A%E8%BF%8E%E5%9B%9E%E4%BA%8C%E5%B8%9D%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%AF%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">坚定迎回二帝是误解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%AB%E9%A1%BB%E6%9C%89"><span class="toc-number">6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">莫须有</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E6%8D%A3%E9%BB%84%E9%BE%99%E5%BA%9C%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">直捣黄龙府？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">6.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜利下的风险</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%89%E5%86%9B%E6%AD%A6%E8%A3%85%E4%B8%8D%E5%BA%94%E9%AB%98%E6%9C%9F%E5%BE%85"><span class="toc-number">6.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">义军武装不应高期待</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A3%AB%E7%BB%85%E5%A0%95%E8%90%BD%E9%82%80%E8%AF%B7%E5%BC%82%E6%97%8F%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83%E7%BB%9F%E6%B2%BB"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">士绅堕落邀请异族政权统治</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%8A%97%E7%8E%8B%E5%AE%89%E7%9F%B3%E5%8F%98%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对抗王安石变法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E8%90%8C%E8%8A%BD"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融化的萌芽</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%9B%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的进程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E7%A8%8E%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">财税发展</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%82%E6%97%8F%E6%94%BF%E6%9D%83%E4%B8%8E%E5%A3%AB%E7%BB%85%E5%90%88%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">6.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">异族政权与士绅合流</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">短命蒙元</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%90%89%E6%80%9D%E6%B1%97%E7%9A%84%E7%8B%AC%E4%B8%80%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成吉思汗的独一性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%83%E6%88%B7%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">7.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">千户制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E8%A3%82"><span class="toc-number">7.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分裂</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%85%83%E7%AE%97%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%8E%8B%E6%9C%9D%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙元算中国王朝么</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E6%88%98%E5%8A%9B%E5%BC%BA%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙古战力强么</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E9%99%A4%E8%97%A9%E9%95%87%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%8B%E7%BA%BF%E5%B0%B1%E4%BA%A1%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">消除藩镇皇帝一下线就亡国</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">朱明王朝</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E6%9C%9D%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">明朝建立的意义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E6%9C%A8%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%9E%E9%94%81%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">土木之变的连锁历史</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E4%BF%9D%E5%8D%AB%E6%88%98%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%BA%E9%97%A8%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">北京保卫战与夺门之变</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E5%85%B5%E5%A4%87%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">调兵备战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%82%A8%E4%BD%8D%E6%8B%89%E9%94%AF"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">储位拉锯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%BA%E9%97%A8%E4%B9%8B%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">夺门之变</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E6%9C%A8%E5%A0%A1%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E7%93%A6%E5%89%8C%E4%B8%8E%E9%9E%91%E9%9D%BC"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">土木堡后的瓦剌与鞑靼</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%9B%E6%9E%81%E8%80%8C%E8%A1%B0"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">盛极而衰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E5%AE%B6%E6%97%8F%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E5%AE%9A%E9%BC%8E%E8%8D%89%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄金家族再次定鼎草原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%93%A6%E5%89%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">瓦剌的终局</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E6%9C%9D%E5%8D%97%E8%BF%81%E8%83%BD%E5%83%8F%E5%8D%97%E5%AE%8B%E9%82%A3%E6%A0%B7%E7%86%AC%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">明朝南迁能像南宋那样熬么</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">辫子大清</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E7%BA%AF%E5%B8%9D%E8%A2%AB%E5%84%BF%E5%AD%90%E6%81%B6%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">清纯帝被儿子恶心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%9A%E6%B8%85%E5%A1%91%E6%96%99%E5%A7%90%E5%A6%B9%E8%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">晚清塑料姐妹花</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BE%9B%E9%85%89%E6%94%BF%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">辛酉政变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A2%E5%84%BF%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">抢儿子的矛盾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8E%E5%8F%B2%E6%AF%92%E5%AE%B3%EF%BC%8C%E4%B9%9F%E4%BB%85%E4%BB%85%E6%98%AF%E9%87%8E%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">野史毒害，也仅仅是野史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%84%B6%E6%94%BE%E9%A3%9E"><span class="toc-number">9.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">全然放飞</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A7%E6%9D%83%E8%BE%B1%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%BE%E4%BB%A5%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%B9%8E"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">丧权辱国难以理解乎</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">历代的教训</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">先秦</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E6%B1%89"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦汉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B%E5%8D%97%E5%8C%97%E6%9C%9D%E9%9A%8B%E5%94%90"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏晋南北朝隋唐</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E5%85%83%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">10.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋元明</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85"><span class="toc-number">10.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">清</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">从南向北统一难？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">史观</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">文治 vs 武功</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">民族代码</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">额外参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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@@ -256,7 +256,7 @@ <h2 id="工业化的厚黑社会学规则">工业化的厚黑社会学规则</h2
 <h2 id="美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱">美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱</h2>
 <p>美国在经历工业化高峰+美元霸权确立后，导致民众没有辛苦从事体力劳动的动力，而更倾向于从事金融，医生，律师等高收入服务行业。</p>
 <p>美国工业创新能力的衰败，产业空心化的本质原因，是基于美国社会发展水平下的民众选择，这<font color="dodgerblue"><strong>是美元霸权的福利，也是美元霸权的代价</strong></font></p>
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diff --git "a/\345\217\221\345\261\225\350\207\252\345\267\261\347\232\204\345\267\245\345\205\267\347\256\261.html" "b/\345\217\221\345\261\225\350\207\252\345\267\261\347\232\204\345\267\245\345\205\267\347\256\261.html"
index 4a86f44d25..ccc4f6da60 100644
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@@ -300,7 +300,7 @@ <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>让我们搬出Jobs的名言</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>You can’t connect the dots looking forward, you can only connect them looking backwards.</p>
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href="#%E5%A2%9E%E9%87%8F%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E6%9C%80%E4%BD%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">增量学习策略最佳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%B4%E7%95%8C%E7%82%B9%E4%B8%8E%E6%B6%8C%E7%8E%B0%EF%BC%88emergence%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">临界点与涌现（emergence）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A0%E7%88%B1%E5%8F%91%E7%94%B5%EF%BC%8C%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E5%86%85%E9%A9%B1%E5%BE%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">靠爱发电，找到内驱很重要</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E7%AE%B1%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%AF%E7%B4%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工具箱式的积累</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E5%8D%8A%E8%A1%B0%E6%9C%9F-%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">知识半衰期+持续学习</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E9%87%8D%E8%BE%93%E5%87%BA-%E4%B8%8D%E6%96%AD%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E8%BE%93%E5%87%BA%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">注重输出-- 不断提高自己输出价值的能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E6%88%90%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%B9%A0%E6%83%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">养成研究的习惯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%BD%8E%E6%89%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">高低手的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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href="#%E5%A2%9E%E9%87%8F%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%E6%9C%80%E4%BD%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">增量学习策略最佳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%B4%E7%95%8C%E7%82%B9%E4%B8%8E%E6%B6%8C%E7%8E%B0%EF%BC%88emergence%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">临界点与涌现（emergence）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A0%E7%88%B1%E5%8F%91%E7%94%B5%EF%BC%8C%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E5%86%85%E9%A9%B1%E5%BE%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">靠爱发电，找到内驱很重要</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E7%AE%B1%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%AF%E7%B4%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工具箱式的积累</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E5%8D%8A%E8%A1%B0%E6%9C%9F-%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">知识半衰期+持续学习</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E9%87%8D%E8%BE%93%E5%87%BA-%E4%B8%8D%E6%96%AD%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E8%BE%93%E5%87%BA%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">注重输出-- 不断提高自己输出价值的能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E6%88%90%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%B9%A0%E6%83%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">养成研究的习惯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%BD%8E%E6%89%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">高低手的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E5%A4%84%E5%A4%84%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E7%AE%B1%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">举一个生活处处工具箱逻辑的例子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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diff --git "a/\345\217\230\351\235\251\346\230\257\344\270\200\346\212\212\346\211\213\345\267\245\347\250\213.html" "b/\345\217\230\351\235\251\346\230\257\344\270\200\346\212\212\346\211\213\345\267\245\347\250\213.html"
index 01edf2f57c..f8bff0b5d3 100644
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@@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ <h1>过河方向</h1>
 <p>在组织结构上，包括互联网公司都推崇高度分权高效率的事业部制，但视效率为生命的制造业甚至奔在了前面，也许是压力使然，没有空间再等下去了。</p>
 <p>随着变化越来越快的时代，需要的是高度快速反应，敏捷性，韧性，灵活性，如此在组织转型的思路上，朝向的是大平台，小组织，小团体，小单元，小业务，小分队。后台是高度的一致性，根据企业的数据，技术，追求敏捷。建两个核心，一个业务中台，一个技术部门，前方全是小的团队，区域的，产品的，以某一个业务板块划分。</p>
 <p>这也是当前中台为什么这么火的原因，我先前甚至还写了一篇<a href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9E%97%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%BD%E7%83%AD%E9%97%B9.html">中台的林子好热闹</a>的文章，以显透彻沉着，看得越多，越觉趋势最重要，早信早超生。</p>
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@@ -258,7 +258,7 @@ <h3 id="撒谎的信号">撒谎的信号</h3>
 <p>一个人在撒谎时，会抚摸自我安慰区，女性的自我安慰区是胸口，男性的自我安慰区是脑后。另外耸肩，摸鼻子，抓痒，快速眨眼也是说谎的一些信号。</p>
 <h3 id="绩效最终体现在员工的成长中">绩效最终体现在员工的成长中</h3>
 <p>员工为企业的成长投资了最宝贵的资源–时间，因此企业要保证在这些时间内让员工有所提升，企业严格管理员工，是为了提升员工的职场价值。对职场人士来说，如果在工作中没有开拓新领域，获得新能力，只是日复一日重复，所谓的”工作经验“是非常廉价的。员工的进步跟管理者的严格管理有很大关系，是团队自信的底气。</p>
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class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E8%A5%BF%E6%96%B9%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%8A%9B%E6%9C%89%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中西方的领导力有区别吗？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A7%E8%A1%8C%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E4%BC%AA%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">执行力是一个伪概念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E6%93%8D%E8%B7%AF%E5%BE%84%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">最好的实操路径：</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%E6%BC%8F%E6%96%97%E4%BD%A0%E7%94%A9%E4%B8%8D%E6%8E%89"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">沟通漏斗你甩不掉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%BF%87%E4%BB%96%E4%BA%BA%E5%81%9A%E4%BA%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%8D%B3%E5%88%BB%E5%8F%98%E8%BA%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">通过他人做事，即刻变身</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%B7%E5%BE%97%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%B4%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%8E%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%80%E8%B1%A1%E9%99%90%E7%9A%84%E6%89%A9%E5%A4%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">获得领导力伴生于公开象限的扩大</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E6%98%AF%E7%90%83%E9%98%9F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">团队是球队不是家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%88%B9%E8%88%B9%E9%95%BF%E8%8E%AB%E5%88%92%E8%88%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大船船长莫划船</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%93%E6%B3%A8%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标明确，专注主要矛盾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%9B%E9%A9%AC%E4%B8%8D%E7%9B%B8%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">赛马不相马</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些其它</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%E5%92%8C%E4%BD%BF%E5%91%BD%E6%98%AF%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值观和使命是企业区别的高级状态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E4%B8%80%E8%87%B4%E6%80%A7-%E2%80%93-%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%BC%B1%E5%88%BA%E6%BF%80"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">团队一致性 – 持续弱刺激</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%96%84%E7%94%A8%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">善用激励</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%92%92%E8%B0%8E%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%8F%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">撒谎的信号</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E8%A5%BF%E6%96%B9%E7%9A%84%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%8A%9B%E6%9C%89%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中西方的领导力有区别吗？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A7%E8%A1%8C%E5%8A%9B%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E4%BC%AA%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">执行力是一个伪概念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E6%93%8D%E8%B7%AF%E5%BE%84%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">最好的实操路径：</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%E6%BC%8F%E6%96%97%E4%BD%A0%E7%94%A9%E4%B8%8D%E6%8E%89"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">沟通漏斗你甩不掉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%BF%87%E4%BB%96%E4%BA%BA%E5%81%9A%E4%BA%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%8D%B3%E5%88%BB%E5%8F%98%E8%BA%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">通过他人做事，即刻变身</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%B7%E5%BE%97%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%B4%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%8E%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%80%E8%B1%A1%E9%99%90%E7%9A%84%E6%89%A9%E5%A4%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">获得领导力伴生于公开象限的扩大</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E6%98%AF%E7%90%83%E9%98%9F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">团队是球队不是家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%88%B9%E8%88%B9%E9%95%BF%E8%8E%AB%E5%88%92%E8%88%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大船船长莫划船</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%93%E6%B3%A8%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标明确，专注主要矛盾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%9B%E9%A9%AC%E4%B8%8D%E7%9B%B8%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">赛马不相马</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些其它</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%E5%92%8C%E4%BD%BF%E5%91%BD%E6%98%AF%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB%E7%9A%84%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%A7%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值观和使命是企业区别的高级状态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E4%B8%80%E8%87%B4%E6%80%A7-%E2%80%93-%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%BC%B1%E5%88%BA%E6%BF%80"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">团队一致性 – 持续弱刺激</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%96%84%E7%94%A8%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">善用激励</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%92%92%E8%B0%8E%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%8F%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">撒谎的信号</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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@@ -1111,7 +1111,7 @@ <h4 id="好房子-豪宅可否成为救世主？">好房子/豪宅可否成为
 </blockquote>
 <p>年轻人更倾向轻资产模式，48%选择买 老破小+重金改造，而非直接购买精装新房，37%接受 核心区小户型+近郊第二居所的组合方案，甚至 15%开始尝试 购房+REITs 投资对冲持有成本。新一代用消费电子品逻辑看待住房，不追求永恒占有，而是持续迭代，计划每 5-8 年通过置换升级居住体验。住房从资本品回归耐用消费品，定价权从金融属性转向使用价值，市场生态分化：有钱人不差钱住豪宅，普通人老老实实计算成本和性价比，不为明天的泡沫支付今天的溢价。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">深圳房地产信息网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://news.szhome.com/385951.html">2023年深圳楼市年报—乐有家研究中心</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">每经网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.nbd.com.cn/rss/toutiao/articles/1392295.html">2019只靠房租，房东多少年能回本</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20240726A09HT700">租房更划算了吗</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">网易 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.163.com/dy/article/ITJ9FRVJ0519L38V.html">美日是如何走出房地产危机的</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">金融四十人论坛 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.cf40.org.cn/news_detail/13611.html">跨国比较：泡沫破裂后的房地产市场</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">经济50人论坛 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.50forum.org.cn/home/article/detail/id/10999.html">2024年二季度宏观杠杆率</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">格隆汇 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://m.gelonghui.com/p/717114">如何看待中国房地产的调整</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:8"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">8.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">格隆汇 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://m.gelonghui.com/p/521415">中金：别人的“后地产”时代</a><a href="#fnref:8" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright-title"><span 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class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E4%B8%89%E9%81%93%E7%BA%A2%E7%BA%BF%E5%92%8C%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E4%BB%B7%E5%BC%80%E5%90%AF%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自三道红线和指导价开启的调整</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%AD%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">这次调整周期中，中国的房价到底下跌了多少？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%84%E5%94%AE%E5%8D%96%E5%85%89%E7%9A%84%E7%83%82%E5%B0%BE%E6%A5%BC%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E8%B4%A6%E6%88%B7%E9%92%B1%E5%8E%BB%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">预售卖光的烂尾楼监管账户钱去哪了</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%B7%E3%80%81%E5%85%BB%E8%80%81%E3%80%81%E7%94%9F%E8%82%B2%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92%E5%9B%B0%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">房贷、养老、生育三角困局</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E7%BA%BF%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E7%8A%B6%E5%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">一线城市房价状况</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E8%90%BD%E8%87%B32016%E8%87%B32017"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">回落至2016至2017</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E9%92%BB%E6%90%9E%E9%92%B1%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E5%9F%8E%E9%B9%8F%E5%9F%8E%EF%BC%882023%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下钻搞钱第一城鹏城（2023）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#2023%E8%AE%AE%E4%BB%B7%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023议价空间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#2023H2-%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E4%BB%B7vs-%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E4%BB%B7%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023H2 指导价vs 实际价偏差</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#2023%E4%BA%8C%E6%89%8B%E6%88%BF%E6%BA%90%E6%88%90%E4%BA%A4%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023二手房源成交周期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%BA%A4%E7%89%87%E5%8C%BA%E4%B8%8E%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">成交片区与客户年龄</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AE%E7%A7%9F%E6%AF%94%E8%AF%A6%E7%BB%86%E9%80%8F%E8%A7%86"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">售租比详细透视</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%9F%E9%87%91%E5%9B%9E%E6%8A%A5%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E8%83%BD%E7%BA%A7%E8%B4%9F%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">租金回报城市能级负相关</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#2024H1%E7%A7%9F%E9%87%91%E5%9B%9E%E6%8A%A5%E7%8E%87%E9%99%8D%E5%BA%8F%E9%98%9F%E5%88%97"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">2024H1租金回报率降序队列</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7-2019-%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">对照 2019 年</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%B0%88%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E8%B0%88%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">不谈房价谈变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#1970%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A5%E6%9D%A515%E4%B8%AA%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%8422%E6%AC%A1%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">1970年以来15个国家的22次房地产危机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%B8%B4%E7%9B%BC%E6%9A%B4%E6%B6%A8%E5%88%B0%E6%AD%A2%E8%B7%8C%E4%BC%81%E7%A8%B3"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从渴盼暴涨到止跌企稳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%BF%E5%AD%90%E5%86%99%E5%85%A5%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">好房子写入政府工作报告</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%BF%E5%AD%90-%E8%B1%AA%E5%AE%85%E5%8F%AF%E5%90%A6%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E6%95%91%E4%B8%96%E4%B8%BB%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好房子&#x2F;豪宅可否成为救世主？</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="toc-text">这次调整周期中，中国的房价到底下跌了多少？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%84%E5%94%AE%E5%8D%96%E5%85%89%E7%9A%84%E7%83%82%E5%B0%BE%E6%A5%BC%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E8%B4%A6%E6%88%B7%E9%92%B1%E5%8E%BB%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">预售卖光的烂尾楼监管账户钱去哪了</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%B7%E3%80%81%E5%85%BB%E8%80%81%E3%80%81%E7%94%9F%E8%82%B2%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92%E5%9B%B0%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">房贷、养老、生育三角困局</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E7%BA%BF%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E7%8A%B6%E5%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">一线城市房价状况</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E8%90%BD%E8%87%B32016%E8%87%B32017"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">回落至2016至2017</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E9%92%BB%E6%90%9E%E9%92%B1%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E5%9F%8E%E9%B9%8F%E5%9F%8E%EF%BC%882023%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下钻搞钱第一城鹏城（2023）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#2023%E8%AE%AE%E4%BB%B7%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023议价空间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#2023H2-%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E4%BB%B7vs-%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E4%BB%B7%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023H2 指导价vs 实际价偏差</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#2023%E4%BA%8C%E6%89%8B%E6%88%BF%E6%BA%90%E6%88%90%E4%BA%A4%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023二手房源成交周期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%BA%A4%E7%89%87%E5%8C%BA%E4%B8%8E%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">成交片区与客户年龄</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AE%E7%A7%9F%E6%AF%94%E8%AF%A6%E7%BB%86%E9%80%8F%E8%A7%86"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">售租比详细透视</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%9F%E9%87%91%E5%9B%9E%E6%8A%A5%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E8%83%BD%E7%BA%A7%E8%B4%9F%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">租金回报城市能级负相关</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#2024H1%E7%A7%9F%E9%87%91%E5%9B%9E%E6%8A%A5%E7%8E%87%E9%99%8D%E5%BA%8F%E9%98%9F%E5%88%97"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">2024H1租金回报率降序队列</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7-2019-%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">对照 2019 年</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%B0%88%E6%88%BF%E4%BB%B7%E8%B0%88%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">不谈房价谈变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#1970%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A5%E6%9D%A515%E4%B8%AA%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%8422%E6%AC%A1%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">1970年以来15个国家的22次房地产危机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%B8%B4%E7%9B%BC%E6%9A%B4%E6%B6%A8%E5%88%B0%E6%AD%A2%E8%B7%8C%E4%BC%81%E7%A8%B3"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从渴盼暴涨到止跌企稳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%BF%E5%AD%90%E5%86%99%E5%85%A5%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">好房子写入政府工作报告</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%BF%E5%AD%90-%E8%B1%AA%E5%AE%85%E5%8F%AF%E5%90%A6%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E6%95%91%E4%B8%96%E4%B8%BB%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好房子&#x2F;豪宅可否成为救世主？</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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diff --git "a/\345\222\214\347\224\260\347\216\211\347\232\204\344\270\213\346\262\211\346\274\224\345\217\230.html" "b/\345\222\214\347\224\260\347\216\211\347\232\204\344\270\213\346\262\211\346\274\224\345\217\230.html"
index 6349771d50..1efa13a61d 100644
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+++ "b/\345\222\214\347\224\260\347\216\211\347\232\204\344\270\213\346\262\211\346\274\224\345\217\230.html"
@@ -218,7 +218,7 @@ <h3 id="翡翠的冲击">翡翠的冲击</h3>
 <p>到了清朝，和田玉的地位遭到毁灭性打击，<strong>因为中国不产硬质宝石，历代统治者才推崇和田玉</strong>。乾隆 36 年开始，缅甸的翡翠大量进入中国，翡翠的颜色更加鲜艳，质地也更硬，很快收到统治者认同，慈禧直接把翡翠定为皇家玉，带头用上翡翠饰品。</p>
 <p>在乾隆初年，翡翠的价格只有和田玉1/10，到了晚晴，价格已经超出和田玉近 10 倍，一开始大家没有把翡翠当成玉，过了 五六十年，就比和田玉贵多了。苏州本来是清朝的玉雕中心，到了道光年间，70%的店铺都转行开始加工翡翠首饰，从此以后翡翠基本占领了首饰市场，和田玉只能加工笔筒镇纸供文人使用，这些文人显然不是有多爱和田玉，只是翡翠的价格太高。直到今天，翡翠还是中国的玉石之王。<font color="blur">翡翠有什么高级特性？无非更好地迎合特权阶级为了区别其它人群的需求</font>。</p>
 <p>现在对和田玉的炒作喜欢附加各种玄学属性，清朝已经证明，皇帝一旦接触到翡翠，马上就抛弃了和田玉，如果古代中国能和南非保持稳定的贸易，钻石和其他宝石估计早就能打败玉石了。今天的和田玉有大规模的市场，原因不是稀缺，也不是古代流传的文化价值，唯一可靠的只是装饰价值，作为漂亮石头来出售，用化学分析的方式去定义质量（如国标里的颜色，彩度，明度），跟产地无关，和历史也没有关系，市场才能透明，才能得到普通消费者的长期认同。</p>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">和田玉的成分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%8F%A4%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E4%BC%9A%E5%96%9C%E6%AC%A2%E5%92%8C%E7%94%B0%E7%8E%89%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国古人为何会喜欢和田玉？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E7%9A%84%E9%99%90%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理的限制</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%89%E7%9F%B3%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8B%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">玉石的下放</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BF%A1%E7%BF%A0%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E5%87%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">翡翠的冲击</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time 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diff --git "a/\345\223\252\345\220\222\344\270\216\351\233\204\347\213\256\345\260\221\345\271\264.html" "b/\345\223\252\345\220\222\344\270\216\351\233\204\347\213\256\345\260\221\345\271\264.html"
index e730dede2f..ae5f5f7b67 100644
--- "a/\345\223\252\345\220\222\344\270\216\351\233\204\347\213\256\345\260\221\345\271\264.html"
+++ "b/\345\223\252\345\220\222\344\270\216\351\233\204\347\213\256\345\260\221\345\271\264.html"
@@ -282,7 +282,7 @@ <h3 id="艺术探索-vs-大众市场">艺术探索 vs 大众市场</h3>
 </table>
 <p>莫要在商业片里灌些文艺片的内核。90%的人玩艺术，就是要证明自己不是一般人。因为要证明自己不是一般人，艺术就必须像皇帝的新衣一样，让普通人看不到，看不懂，这是一种浅入深出 / 深入深出的不高明方式，算不得「大家」。别人质疑，就回怼：你不懂艺术，可多数并不能经受住时间的考验。但我相信雄狮（抛开眼距眼型设计）称得上原创动画的精品之作，就如电影结尾段台词中提及的「让时间去证明一切吧」。</p>
 <h2 id="引用参考">引用参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sohu.com/a/858155952_116237">8000万与90亿，雄狮少年与哪吒的命运为何这般天壤之别</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" 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href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%941979%E5%93%AA%E5%90%92%E9%97%B9%E6%B5%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对比1979哪吒闹海</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%84%E7%8B%AE%E5%B0%91%E5%B9%B4%EF%BC%9A%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8B%BC%E6%90%8F%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">雄狮少年：普通人的拼搏故事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%A8%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%A5%E5%8C%97"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">票房败北</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">创作对比</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%BB%E9%9D%A2%E6%B0%B4%E5%87%86"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span 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href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%941979%E5%93%AA%E5%90%92%E9%97%B9%E6%B5%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对比1979哪吒闹海</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%84%E7%8B%AE%E5%B0%91%E5%B9%B4%EF%BC%9A%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8B%BC%E6%90%8F%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">雄狮少年：普通人的拼搏故事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%A8%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%A5%E5%8C%97"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">票房败北</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">创作对比</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%BB%E9%9D%A2%E6%B0%B4%E5%87%86"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">画面水准</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E5%AE%A3%E6%B3%84"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪宣泄</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#IP-%E9%B8%BF%E6%B2%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">IP 鸿沟</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF%E6%8E%A2%E7%B4%A2-vs-%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%97%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">艺术探索 vs 大众市场</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">引用参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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@@ -278,7 +278,7 @@ <h2 id="哲学的目的">哲学的目的</h2>
 <h3 id="语言分析哲学的总结">语言分析哲学的总结</h3>
 <p>哲学不是直接给我们『如何生活』，『世界是什么』的标准和终极答案，而是帮我们看清『困住我们的瓶子』是什么，让我们有机会停下无效挣扎，找到跳出框架的可能。</p>
 <p>哪怕哲学的世界本质问题、当你用错误的语言逻辑、僵化的概念去追问时，才会导致问题无解，而不是问题本身无解。</p>
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class="title">生活好看吗</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三大要素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E5%BF%83%E6%B4%BE%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯心派的三个哲学问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E7%89%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯物的三个哲学问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%8F%88%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂又简单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86%E4%B8%8E%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span 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class="title">生活好看吗</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三大要素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E5%BF%83%E6%B4%BE%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯心派的三个哲学问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E7%89%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯物的三个哲学问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%8F%88%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂又简单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E7%90%86%E4%B8%8E%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span 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diff --git "a/\345\224\257\345\223\201\344\274\232\347\232\204\347\224\237\345\255\230\344\271\213\351\227\250.html" "b/\345\224\257\345\223\201\344\274\232\347\232\204\347\224\237\345\255\230\344\271\213\351\227\250.html"
index d5a2343d11..9b69a395e0 100644
--- "a/\345\224\257\345\223\201\344\274\232\347\232\204\347\224\237\345\255\230\344\271\213\351\227\250.html"
+++ "b/\345\224\257\345\223\201\344\274\232\347\232\204\347\224\237\345\255\230\344\271\213\351\227\250.html"
@@ -207,7 +207,7 @@
 <p><u>当在大数据分析基础上&amp;创新性的CMS系统出现，或许才能一改当前线下粗放的特征</u>。但<font color="blur"> CMS和大数据，都不捏在品牌商手里，品牌商从来不是建设IT系统的精兵，却是渠道及门店的强将</font>。</p>
 <p>自己一直在锻炼技术领域的专业透视能力及表达技巧，对业务的分析表述的确很差火候，但二者有相同之处，优秀的跨界，也是互联网时代的魅力。正向来看，自己有很大的成长空间，不错。</p>
 <p>PS：个人不看好唯品会的长期发展，没有绝对的杀手锏门槛，在AJ两家电商巨头转身来大力搞这个时，特别是J，唯品会的神话或许几年后就成为追忆。</p>
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index d245652533..16762d591c 100644
--- "a/\345\233\236\346\234\2332020.html"
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@@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ <h2 id="新年展望">新年展望</h2>
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index c18e4226c9..fa281c739d 100644
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+++ "b/\345\235\227-\346\226\207\344\273\266-\345\257\271\350\261\241\345\255\230\345\202\250.html"
@@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ <h3 id="说的这么牛，咋不上天一统江湖">说的这么牛，咋不上
 <li>一类应用需存储直接磁盘映射，如数据库，为性能计，为历史资产继承计。</li>
 <li>对象存储在非海量场景，成本还是较文件存储高，如需买专门的对象存储软件和大容量硬盘。</li>
 </ol>
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title="云原生基座下的大数据"><img class="cover" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230809113620.png" alt="cover"><div class="content is-center"><div class="date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history fa-fw"></i> 2024-06-27</div><div class="title">云原生基座下的大数据</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span 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class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4%EF%BC%88Bucket%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">存储空间（Bucket）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%EF%BC%88Object%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象（Object）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#AccessKey-SecretKey%EF%BC%88%E7%A7%98%E9%92%A5%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">AccessKey&#x2F;SecretKey（秘钥）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87%E8%AE%BF%E9%97%AE%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何提升访问安全性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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title="云原生基座下的大数据"><img class="cover" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20230809113620.png" alt="cover"><div class="content is-center"><div class="date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history fa-fw"></i> 2024-06-27</div><div class="title">云原生基座下的大数据</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span 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diff --git "a/\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\224\250\347\224\265\351\207\217\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html" "b/\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\224\250\347\224\265\351\207\217\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html"
index b52b475850..9ddf8ae587 100644
--- "a/\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\224\250\347\224\265\351\207\217\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html"
+++ "b/\345\237\216\345\270\202\347\224\250\347\224\265\351\207\217\345\244\247\346\225\260\346\215\256.html"
@@ -255,7 +255,7 @@ <h2 id="结语呼应">结语呼应</h2>
 <li><u><strong>增长指标而言，工业用电量的增长（生活用电更多地会受到气候变化影响）是实体经济发展的重要参考指标</strong></u></li>
 </ul>
 <h1>参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">克而瑞 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.cricchina.com/research/Details/7220">大数据|如何正确看待城市用电量指标</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" 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href="#%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">生活用电</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">三产，公共服务及其它用电</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人均用电量</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E4%B8%9A%E6%9B%B4%E8%8A%82%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">服务业更节能</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%94%E5%80%99%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">气候因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%B7%AE%E9%92%B1%EF%BC%8C%E6%97%85%E6%B8%B8%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%93%86%E5%8A%B2%E4%BA%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源城市不差钱，旅游城市铆劲亮</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E5%A2%9E%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人均工业用电增速</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD%E5%91%BC%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语呼应</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div 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href="#%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">生活用电</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">三产，公共服务及其它用电</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人均用电量</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E4%B8%9A%E6%9B%B4%E8%8A%82%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">服务业更节能</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%94%E5%80%99%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">气候因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%B7%AE%E9%92%B1%EF%BC%8C%E6%97%85%E6%B8%B8%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%93%86%E5%8A%B2%E4%BA%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源城市不差钱，旅游城市铆劲亮</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E5%A2%9E%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人均工业用电增速</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD%E5%91%BC%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语呼应</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div 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diff --git "a/\345\240\206\346\216\222\345\272\217\344\270\216\345\275\222\345\271\266\346\216\222\345\272\217.html" "b/\345\240\206\346\216\222\345\272\217\344\270\216\345\275\222\345\271\266\346\216\222\345\272\217.html"
index 714c7e8027..f5bb464647 100644
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+++ "b/\345\240\206\346\216\222\345\272\217\344\270\216\345\275\222\345\271\266\346\216\222\345\272\217.html"
@@ -398,7 +398,7 @@ <h5 id="量化对比">量化对比</h5>
 <p><font color="dodgerblue">外排序本质上在真正排序的时候用的还是内排序的算法，毕竟CPU不能直接和外存打交道</font>。外部排序比内排序在同等算法下要慢得多，根本原因在于IO时间相比内存和cpu交互运算时间太长，所以外部排序的算法主要集中的地方在于如何有效降低读写外存的次数，次数越多，算法效率越低，一种思路就是增加k路平衡归并中的k值。但无限增加k值，虽会减少读写外存的次数，但会增加内部归并的时间。败者树数据结构使得在增加 K 值时不会线性的影响内部归并的效率，所以成为一种优中之选。</p>
 <h1>后记</h1>
 <p>临近春节，把这拖拖拉拉一直放在草稿箱5个月的文稿终于可以post出来，事情结项如此拖沓，着实惭愧，清扫TODO的心境是松弛的，轻装迎接兔年。</p>
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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆排序</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Heap"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Heap</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8C%E5%85%A8%E4%BA%8C%E5%8F%89%E6%A0%91"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">完全二叉树</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Full-vs-Complete-vs-Perfect"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Full vs Complete vs Perfect</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A0%86%E5%BA%8F%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆序性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">具体实现</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E6%8D%A2-%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">交换-下沉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5Tips"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念Tips</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A0%86%E6%9C%AC%E8%BA%AB%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E6%95%B0%E7%BB%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆本身不是排序数组</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A0%86%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆形式并不是唯一的</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">归并排序</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%84%E5%BC%9F%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">兄弟排序算法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E9%83%A8%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">外部排序的选择</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%B7%AF%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">多路归并</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%B7%AF%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">多路举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6%E8%B7%AF%E6%95%B0%E6%89%A9%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%8A%E7%AB%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">归并路数扩大的弊端</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E7%99%BB%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">算法优化登场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论先行</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%91%E6%8E%92%E4%B8%8E%E5%A0%86%E6%8E%92"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">树排与堆排</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E5%8F%89%E5%A0%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">二叉堆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜者树</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91%E4%B8%8E%E5%A0%86%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜者树与堆的异同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%91%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E9%97%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">树深度的疑问</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91vs%E8%B4%A5%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜者树vs败者树</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A5%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">败者树工作过程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8F%E5%8C%96%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">量化对比</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span 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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆排序</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Heap"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Heap</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8C%E5%85%A8%E4%BA%8C%E5%8F%89%E6%A0%91"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">完全二叉树</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Full-vs-Complete-vs-Perfect"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Full vs Complete vs Perfect</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A0%86%E5%BA%8F%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆序性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">具体实现</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E6%8D%A2-%E4%B8%8B%E6%B2%89"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">交换-下沉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5Tips"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念Tips</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A0%86%E6%9C%AC%E8%BA%AB%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E6%95%B0%E7%BB%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆本身不是排序数组</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A0%86%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">堆形式并不是唯一的</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">归并排序</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%84%E5%BC%9F%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">兄弟排序算法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E9%83%A8%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">外部排序的选择</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%B7%AF%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">多路归并</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%B7%AF%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">多路举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%92%E5%B9%B6%E8%B7%AF%E6%95%B0%E6%89%A9%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%8A%E7%AB%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">归并路数扩大的弊端</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E7%99%BB%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">算法优化登场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论先行</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%91%E6%8E%92%E4%B8%8E%E5%A0%86%E6%8E%92"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">树排与堆排</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E5%8F%89%E5%A0%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">二叉堆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜者树</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91%E4%B8%8E%E5%A0%86%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%82%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜者树与堆的异同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%91%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%96%91%E9%97%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">树深度的疑问</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%9C%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91vs%E8%B4%A5%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">胜者树vs败者树</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A5%E8%80%85%E6%A0%91%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">败者树工作过程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8F%E5%8C%96%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">量化对比</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span 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index 155a60bede..c21e6f3d81 100644
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+++ "b/\345\242\250\345\256\266\344\273\216\346\265\201\350\241\214\345\210\260\346\262\241\350\220\275.html"
@@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ <h2 id="读史的好处">读史的好处</h2>
 <p><strong>学史明理、学史增信、学史崇德、学史力行</strong>。</p>
 <p>我们经历的那些悲欢，其实别人早就经历过，王朝更迭中的挣扎，命运洪流里的浮沉，甚至是一场误解，一次遗憾，都能在史书中找到回声，如王安石变法成空，张居正身后倾覆，读史会明白执念终会风化，时间也从来不会为谁停留。历史从来不提供答案，但它会不断的告诉我们，眼前的山，早就有无数人爬过，太阳底下无新事，懂得的你人生也就多了一份从容。</p>
 <p><u>欲知大道，必先为史，看穿本民族迷雾</u>。读更多族群的历史，则可看穿人类族群迷雾，有如《<a href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD.html">历史的教训</a>》一样。</p>
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class="title">汉字造字的精细</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%BA%E7%8E%B0%E5%8F%8A%E4%B8%8E%E5%84%92%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">出现及与儒家的对立</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%BA%E8%BA%AB%E9%80%A0%E5%B0%B1%E6%9C%AC%E5%BF%83%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">出身造就本心不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E5%85%B3%E6%9C%BA%E5%85%B3%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">有关机关术</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A8%E6%9C%B1%E6%B4%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E5%AF%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">杨朱派的反对</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A8%E6%9C%B1%E4%B8%8E%E8%80%81%E5%BA%84%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">杨朱与老庄的不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%98%BE%E5%AD%A6%E5%88%B0%E6%B6%88%E4%BA%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">从显学到消亡</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E7%BB%9F%E6%B2%BB%E8%80%85%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%88%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从统治者角度看（外）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A2%A8%E5%AE%B6%E6%95%99%E4%B9%89%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%88%E5%86%85%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从墨家教义角度看（内）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%88%86%E8%A3%82%E5%92%8C%E9%97%A8%E4%BA%BA%E5%87%8B%E6%95%9D%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">从分裂和门人凋敝来看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%92%E5%AE%B6%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%BF%BB%E8%BA%AB%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">儒家怎么翻身的</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E5%A4%AA%E8%B6%85%E5%89%8D%EF%BC%8C%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%8D%E5%BE%97%E5%84%92%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦太超前，看不得儒家的不务实</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉代的特别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%BB%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">读史的好处</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div 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class="title">汉字造字的精细</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%BA%E7%8E%B0%E5%8F%8A%E4%B8%8E%E5%84%92%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">出现及与儒家的对立</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%BA%E8%BA%AB%E9%80%A0%E5%B0%B1%E6%9C%AC%E5%BF%83%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">出身造就本心不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E5%85%B3%E6%9C%BA%E5%85%B3%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">有关机关术</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A8%E6%9C%B1%E6%B4%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E5%AF%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">杨朱派的反对</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%A8%E6%9C%B1%E4%B8%8E%E8%80%81%E5%BA%84%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">杨朱与老庄的不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%98%BE%E5%AD%A6%E5%88%B0%E6%B6%88%E4%BA%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">从显学到消亡</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E7%BB%9F%E6%B2%BB%E8%80%85%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%88%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从统治者角度看（外）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A2%A8%E5%AE%B6%E6%95%99%E4%B9%89%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%88%E5%86%85%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从墨家教义角度看（内）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%88%86%E8%A3%82%E5%92%8C%E9%97%A8%E4%BA%BA%E5%87%8B%E6%95%9D%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">从分裂和门人凋敝来看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%92%E5%AE%B6%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%BF%BB%E8%BA%AB%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">儒家怎么翻身的</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E5%A4%AA%E8%B6%85%E5%89%8D%EF%BC%8C%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%8D%E5%BE%97%E5%84%92%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦太超前，看不得儒家的不务实</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉代的特别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%BB%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">读史的好处</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div 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index 7784a0955f..3d7fcf401e 100644
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+++ "b/\345\244\247\345\233\275\345\244\247\346\260\221\345\234\260\345\233\276\347\202\256.html"
@@ -344,7 +344,7 @@ <h2 id="片面结语">片面结语</h2>
 <p>山河四省的人算是这个国家的基本盘，一部分人极端不明白，另一小部分人极端明白。这一小戳人就是许三多那种人，看起来木讷酣傻，得到机会都会混得风生水起。他们太明白这个国家的底层逻辑了，你懂这个省甚至懂所在的那个村，就已经别的不需要再懂了。这是生于山河四省的一个幸运，也是不幸。山东官员多，一部分也基于此。</p>
 <p>北京是个例外，是自以为自己最明白，但其实不明白。离真相太近，离事实太远，所以他们明白的是北京城里事和逻辑，误以为这是整个土地的事。门清，啥都门清，一点就透甚至不点都透，但实际上理解的跟真实不是一码事。他们规矩多，会囿[y$\grave{o}$u]于规矩，误以为这些规矩就是道理，拿来行事往往事与愿违。</p>
 <p>广东人也是自以为明白其实不明白。这里和香港的文化性格差不多，香港人是一种基于落后的先进，北京是一种基于先进的落后。广东人看起来落后，其实很先进。北京人看起来先进，其实很落后。广东人的价值观一方面生冷不忌，开拓进取的生猛精神，涤荡天下的气概(几百年前甚至一千年前那种好)，另一方面又有很多封建的想法，如男尊女卑敬神敬祖宗。很多有钱人喜欢讨二奶，搞三妻四妾，见怪不怪。不是说别的地方的有钱男人不搞，而是别的地方这样搞成本很高，在文化上是要被谴责的，广东人就有点司空见惯的意思。<u>广东人的想法就是过日子，讨老婆，生仔，然后循环，别管世事变化，永远是过日子，这才是生活的全部</u>。<em>他们以为别的地方的人也是这样生活的，其实不是</em>。广东人的宗族关系让他们有很强的纽带，通常还有不错的家庭氛围和家庭关系。小孩子甚至崇拜自己的父母，这在其它地方是很少见的。他们的封建残余是好的一面，不像其他地方是压抑个人发展，个人自由的东西。一句话就是粤语区同时保留了传统文化中最先进的一面，也保留了糟粕的一面，存在些许矛盾与尴尬。</p>
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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%8A%E5%9C%BA%E8%88%9E%E5%8F%B0-%E9%99%95%E8%A5%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中华上半场舞台-陕西</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E7%89%A7%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E4%BC%A0%E6%89%BF%E7%9A%84%E6%AF%9B%E7%97%85"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游牧文明传承的毛病</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A8%E9%87%8C%E5%B1%B1%E6%B2%B3%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E5%B1%B1%E8%A5%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">表里山河发现山西</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%A4%E8%8D%A1%E9%BB%91%E9%87%91%E7%9B%9B%E5%AE%B4%E5%BF%83%E7%81%B5%E8%A6%81%E7%82%B9%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">涤荡黑金盛宴心灵要点时间</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BD%90%E9%B2%81%E4%B9%8B%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">齐鲁之地</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">海上山东</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%AD%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">治乱中原</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E6%B3%9B%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄泛区</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E8%80%95-%E7%81%BE%E9%9A%BE%E7%86%AC%E5%B0%B1%E9%A3%8E%E9%9C%9C"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农耕+灾难熬就风霜</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%82%E5%AF%9E%E5%AE%89%E5%BE%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">寂寞安徽</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%BD%E4%BA%AC%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E4%BE%83"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">徽京的调侃</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%94%E4%B8%AA%E6%B5%99%E6%B1%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">五个浙江</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%AD%E5%98%89%E6%B9%96%E5%B9%B3%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">杭嘉湖平原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%A9%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">温台</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%81%E7%BB%8D%E5%B9%B3%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">宁绍平原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BD%E6%B0%B4%EF%BC%8C%E8%A1%A2%E5%B7%9E"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">丽水，衢州</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E5%8D%8E"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">金华</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A0%B4%E9%87%9C%E6%B2%89%E8%88%9F-%E4%B9%89%E4%B9%8C%E5%B0%8F%E5%95%86%E8%B4%B8"><span class="toc-number">6.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">破釜沉舟-义乌小商贸</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%B4%E5%A4%B4%E6%A5%9A%E5%B0%BE-%E7%B2%A4%E6%88%B7%E9%97%BD%E5%BA%AD-%E6%B1%9F%E8%A5%BF"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">吴头楚尾-粤户闽庭-江西</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E6%B9%96%E6%A5%9A%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">两湖楚地</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%B9%B4%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%81-%E6%B9%96%E5%8D%97"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">百年风流-湖南</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%B9%E7%94%B0%E6%B9%96%E5%8C%97"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">丹田湖北</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E6%A2%B0%E6%96%97"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无政府械斗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E4%BA%95"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">市井</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E5%91%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">8.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">要命的女人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A5%9A%E5%9C%B0%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">楚地对照</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B4%E9%98%B3%E5%B7%B4%E8%9C%80"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">阴阳巴蜀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E5%8C%97%E5%BE%80%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">东北往事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%81%E6%B0%91%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E7%89%B9%E8%89%B2"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">流民的语言特色</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AC%E5%B1%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B1%E6%83%85%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">本山的共情能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E7%89%A7%E6%B0%91%E6%97%8F%E6%89%A7%E6%8E%8C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">游牧民族执掌中土</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BD%AE%E4%B8%8E%E6%B1%95%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">潮与汕不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%B9%BE%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">大湾区</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%8C%BA%E6%B7%B1%E5%9C%B3"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">特区深圳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B9%BE%E5%8C%BA%E8%B5%B7%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">湾区起步</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%8A"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现今</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B9%BE%E5%8C%BA%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">湾区总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%87%E9%9D%A2%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">片面结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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title="豫南迁徙史简记"><img class="cover" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210316215455.png" alt="cover"><div class="content is-center"><div class="date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history fa-fw"></i> 2024-06-27</div><div class="title">豫南迁徙史简记</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%8A%E5%9C%BA%E8%88%9E%E5%8F%B0-%E9%99%95%E8%A5%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中华上半场舞台-陕西</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E7%89%A7%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E4%BC%A0%E6%89%BF%E7%9A%84%E6%AF%9B%E7%97%85"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游牧文明传承的毛病</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A8%E9%87%8C%E5%B1%B1%E6%B2%B3%E5%8F%91%E7%8E%B0%E5%B1%B1%E8%A5%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">表里山河发现山西</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%A4%E8%8D%A1%E9%BB%91%E9%87%91%E7%9B%9B%E5%AE%B4%E5%BF%83%E7%81%B5%E8%A6%81%E7%82%B9%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">涤荡黑金盛宴心灵要点时间</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BD%90%E9%B2%81%E4%B9%8B%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">齐鲁之地</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">海上山东</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E4%B9%B1%E4%B8%AD%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">治乱中原</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E6%B3%9B%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄泛区</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E8%80%95-%E7%81%BE%E9%9A%BE%E7%86%AC%E5%B0%B1%E9%A3%8E%E9%9C%9C"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农耕+灾难熬就风霜</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%82%E5%AF%9E%E5%AE%89%E5%BE%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">寂寞安徽</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%BD%E4%BA%AC%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E4%BE%83"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">徽京的调侃</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%94%E4%B8%AA%E6%B5%99%E6%B1%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">五个浙江</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%AD%E5%98%89%E6%B9%96%E5%B9%B3%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">杭嘉湖平原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%A9%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">温台</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%81%E7%BB%8D%E5%B9%B3%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">宁绍平原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BD%E6%B0%B4%EF%BC%8C%E8%A1%A2%E5%B7%9E"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">丽水，衢州</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E5%8D%8E"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">金华</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A0%B4%E9%87%9C%E6%B2%89%E8%88%9F-%E4%B9%89%E4%B9%8C%E5%B0%8F%E5%95%86%E8%B4%B8"><span class="toc-number">6.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">破釜沉舟-义乌小商贸</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%B4%E5%A4%B4%E6%A5%9A%E5%B0%BE-%E7%B2%A4%E6%88%B7%E9%97%BD%E5%BA%AD-%E6%B1%9F%E8%A5%BF"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">吴头楚尾-粤户闽庭-江西</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E6%B9%96%E6%A5%9A%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">两湖楚地</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%B9%B4%E9%A3%8E%E6%B5%81-%E6%B9%96%E5%8D%97"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">百年风流-湖南</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%B9%E7%94%B0%E6%B9%96%E5%8C%97"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">丹田湖北</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E6%A2%B0%E6%96%97"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无政府械斗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E4%BA%95"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">市井</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E5%91%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">8.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">要命的女人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A5%9A%E5%9C%B0%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">楚地对照</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B4%E9%98%B3%E5%B7%B4%E8%9C%80"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">阴阳巴蜀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E5%8C%97%E5%BE%80%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">东北往事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%81%E6%B0%91%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E7%89%B9%E8%89%B2"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">流民的语言特色</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%AC%E5%B1%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B1%E6%83%85%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">本山的共情能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E7%89%A7%E6%B0%91%E6%97%8F%E6%89%A7%E6%8E%8C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">游牧民族执掌中土</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BD%AE%E4%B8%8E%E6%B1%95%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">潮与汕不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%B9%BE%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">大湾区</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%8C%BA%E6%B7%B1%E5%9C%B3"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">特区深圳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B9%BE%E5%8C%BA%E8%B5%B7%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">湾区起步</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%8A"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现今</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B9%BE%E5%8C%BA%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">湾区总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%87%E9%9D%A2%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">片面结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="内循环与共同富裕"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕">内循环与共同富裕</a><time datetime="2025-11-01T09:46:36.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-01 17:46:36">2025-11-01</time></div></div><div 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@@ -475,7 +475,7 @@ <h2 id="Spark的-API">Spark的 API</h2>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 <h2 id="引用参考">引用参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">github <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://icejoywoo.github.io/2016/03/29/hive-ocr-and-parquet.html">orc与 parquet 对比</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" 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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#HDFS%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E6%A0%BC%E5%BC%8F%E6%8E%A2%E6%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">HDFS存储格式探查</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hive%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E6%A0%BC%E5%BC%8F%E6%8E%A2%E6%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hive存储格式探查</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hive-%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E6%A0%BC%E5%BC%8F%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hive 的原生的存储格式选择</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hive-%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C-JSON-%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hive 操作 JSON 文件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ORC%E5%92%8CParquet-%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ORC和Parquet 的补充对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E5%BF%97%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6%E4%BB%93%E5%BA%93"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">日志落地文件仓库</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A8%E5%AF%BC%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">推导出的方案建议</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Flume"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Flume</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E5%90%88-Flume-%E7%9A%84%E6%97%A5%E5%BF%97%E8%90%BD%E7%9B%98%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结合 Flume 的日志落盘方案</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%8E%A8%E9%80%81%E5%8F%8A%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据推送及消费的流程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E4%BE%9B%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据供业务消费的方案机制</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Spark%E7%9A%84-API"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Spark的 API</span></a></li><li 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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#HDFS%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E6%A0%BC%E5%BC%8F%E6%8E%A2%E6%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">HDFS存储格式探查</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hive%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E6%A0%BC%E5%BC%8F%E6%8E%A2%E6%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hive存储格式探查</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hive-%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E6%A0%BC%E5%BC%8F%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hive 的原生的存储格式选择</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hive-%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C-JSON-%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hive 操作 JSON 文件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ORC%E5%92%8CParquet-%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ORC和Parquet 的补充对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E5%BF%97%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6%E4%BB%93%E5%BA%93"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">日志落地文件仓库</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A8%E5%AF%BC%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">推导出的方案建议</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Flume"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Flume</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E5%90%88-Flume-%E7%9A%84%E6%97%A5%E5%BF%97%E8%90%BD%E7%9B%98%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结合 Flume 的日志落盘方案</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%8E%A8%E9%80%81%E5%8F%8A%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据推送及消费的流程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E4%BE%9B%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据供业务消费的方案机制</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Spark%E7%9A%84-API"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Spark的 API</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">引用参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@ <h2 id="教会的蓬勃">教会的蓬勃</h2>
 <p>罗马帝国衰落时，执政者为了加强控制，曾将基督教定为国教（镇压了多年民间一直有生命力，且其<font color="dodgerblue">教义主要以个人去除欲望，宣扬和谐，逐渐被当局接受</font>），但教权一直控制在政府权力之下。这次日耳曼人像学生一样向教会请教怎么建国，教会从生活，法律，宗教方面对日耳曼实施全方位改造，并搞加冕仪式。形式上最高统治者变成了教皇，但并不真正掌握世俗权力，但手握对世俗权力的控制，重要是达到在思想文化方面的控制，以保证教会的利益。</p>
 <p>东罗马地拖凭借独特的地理位置在蛮族入侵下幸存下来，但无力收复故土，最后和日耳曼人达成协议，不会西征，专心对付北边的斯拉夫人和东边的波斯人。两个教皇的矛盾，也造成天主教和东正教的撕裂。</p>
 <p>东罗马夹在欧洲和中东之间，一直面对着来自东方的巨大压力。波斯帝国衰落后，7世纪，一支来自半岛的阿拉伯人兴起，依靠着伊斯兰教的力量，席卷整个中东，建立了横跨亚，欧，非的阿拉伯帝国。伊斯兰教和基督教同发源于犹太教，但这两支从一开始就势同水火，可参见<a href="https://github.com/%E4%BA%9A%E4%BC%AF%E6%8B%89%E7%BD%95%E8%AF%B8%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82.html">亚伯拉罕诸教的差异</a>。也正因为东西方通道的阻塞，导致了近代地理大发现，人类大探险—大航海时代故事将拉开帷幕。</p>
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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">东：丝绸之路</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E5%9F%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">西域</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%95%E7%B1%B3%E5%B0%94%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">帕米尔高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93%E5%8D%97%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">北道南道</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%AF%E5%9D%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中亚斯坦</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%8A%E6%9C%97%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">伊朗高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E6%B2%B3%E6%B5%81%E5%9F%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">两河流域</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%A4%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">古国的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%9D%E7%BB%B8%E4%B9%8B%E8%B7%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">海上丝绸之路</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙古人的影响</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西：地中海欧洲</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B4%E5%B0%94%E5%B9%B2%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">巴尔干半岛</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%8C%E8%85%8A%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">希腊半岛</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%8F%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%A9%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%9A%E5%B9%B3%E5%AE%81%EF%BC%89%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">意大利（亚平宁）半岛</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%BF%A6%E5%A4%AA%E5%9F%BA%EF%BC%88Carthage%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">灭国迦太基（Carthage）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E4%B9%8B%E5%9B%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">治理之困</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%88%E5%A5%B4%E8%A5%BF%E5%8E%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">匈奴西去</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E8%93%AC%E5%8B%83"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">教会的蓬勃</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">东：丝绸之路</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E5%9F%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">西域</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%95%E7%B1%B3%E5%B0%94%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">帕米尔高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93%E5%8D%97%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">北道南道</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9A%E6%96%AF%E5%9D%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中亚斯坦</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%8A%E6%9C%97%E9%AB%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">伊朗高原</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E6%B2%B3%E6%B5%81%E5%9F%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">两河流域</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%A4%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">古国的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%9D%E7%BB%B8%E4%B9%8B%E8%B7%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">海上丝绸之路</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%92%99%E5%8F%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">蒙古人的影响</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西：地中海欧洲</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B4%E5%B0%94%E5%B9%B2%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">巴尔干半岛</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%8C%E8%85%8A%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">希腊半岛</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%8F%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%A9%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%9A%E5%B9%B3%E5%AE%81%EF%BC%89%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">意大利（亚平宁）半岛</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%BF%A6%E5%A4%AA%E5%9F%BA%EF%BC%88Carthage%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">灭国迦太基（Carthage）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E4%B9%8B%E5%9B%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">治理之困</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%88%E5%A5%B4%E8%A5%BF%E5%8E%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">匈奴西去</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E4%BC%9A%E7%9A%84%E8%93%AC%E5%8B%83"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">教会的蓬勃</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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diff --git "a/\345\244\247\350\257\255\350\250\200\346\250\241\345\236\213.html" "b/\345\244\247\350\257\255\350\250\200\346\250\241\345\236\213.html"
index 6c4ee31ffc..4caab7d6e0 100644
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@@ -1299,7 +1299,7 @@ <h2 id="大模型落地方法论">大模型落地方法论</h2>
 <li>而组织贯穿三层，分别供给不同的人才</li>
 </ul>
 <h1>引用参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">张俊林.<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://k.sina.com.cn/article_2674405451_9f68304b01901346f.html">由ChatGPT反思大语言模型（LLM）的技术精要</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">GLM团队.<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://keg.cs.tsinghua.edu.cn/glm-130b/zh/posts/glm-130b/">GLM-130B：开源的双语预训练模型</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">稀土掘金.<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://juejin.cn/post/7218014583863656503">Github Copilot 程序员下岗指南</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">张俊林 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.jiqizhixin.com/articles/2023-04-28-4">大语言模型的涌现能力——现象与解释</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">张俊林 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://k.sina.cn/article_2674405451_9f68304b019013nky.html">炼制“大语言模型”的两个现象</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">清华大学 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NTUyNTM1OQ==&amp;mid=2247485111&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=76d888b2c2f686f5313afbf573bf7292&amp;chksm=e94c78b7de3bf1a1a4bac69eb7b68aa61d911bb4ffcbf994888d05e8b1ac0ad4c55925bc1dce">大语言模型综合性能评估报告</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">新浪 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://news.sina.cn/ai/2025-02-07/detail-ineirmwe0745834.d.html">DeepSeek-R1是怎么训练的</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:8"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">8.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1819741001762584786">DeepSeek 一个极致的技术理想故事</a><a href="#fnref:8" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:9"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">9.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">牛喀网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.i-newcar.com/index.php?m=home&amp;c=View&amp;a=index&amp;aid=3717">不做 follower</a><a href="#fnref:9" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:10"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">10.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1800101424880887796">Hinton揭秘Ilya成长历程</a><a href="#fnref:10" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright__original" title="该文章为原创文章，注意版权协议" href="https://blog.diffday.com/%E5%A4%A7%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html">原创</a><a 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">惊喜与惊醒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">NLP研究范式转变</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E5%88%B0%E4%B8%A4%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从深度学习到两阶段训练模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">深度学习期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">两阶段训练大模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%A6%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">带来的影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E9%97%B4%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E6%B6%88%E4%BA%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中间任务消亡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术路线统一</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%84%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E5%88%B0%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">预训练到通用人工智能</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ChatGPT"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ChatGPT</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#ChatGPT%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E4%BA%86GPT-3-5%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ChatGPT改变了GPT-3.5什么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E6%9E%84%E6%88%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM的知识构成</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%AD%98%E5%8F%96%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何存取知识</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%84%E6%A8%A1%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM的规模效应</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%8A%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%81%9A%E5%B0%8F%E4%BC%9A%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8DLLM%E7%9A%84%E6%B6%8C%E7%8E%B0%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">把模型做小会影响LLM的涌现能力么</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Transformer%E7%9A%84%E7%A8%80%E7%96%8F%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Transformer的稀疏化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%9C%BA%E4%BA%A4%E4%BA%92"><span class="toc-number">2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">人机交互</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%A2%9E%E5%BC%BALLM%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%A8%E7%90%86%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何增强LLM的推理能力</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">算力约束下的最优培养策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">AGI？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何是OpenAI</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Why-OpenAI-Not-Google"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Why OpenAI Not Google</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Step-By-Step"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Step By Step</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E5%BF%83%E6%8F%92%E6%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无心插柳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9AI%E6%81%90%E6%83%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E7%AD%94"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">面对AI恐惧的解答</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">成本与挑战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型分布式训练挑战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E8%80%97%E6%97%B6%E4%B8%8E%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">深度学习训练耗时与优化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B6%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%8E%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%A6%82%E8%A7%88"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">并行与内存优化概览</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分布式模型训练加速</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E7%B2%97%E7%95%A5%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型研发粗略基础架构</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%BA%E7%AE%97%E9%9B%86%E7%BE%A4%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">智算集群成本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%82%E5%90%88%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%82%BC%E4%B8%B9"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">适合普通玩家的炼丹</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">冲击</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%87%E7%82%B9%E4%B8%B4%E8%BF%91"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">奇点临近</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9A%EF%BC%8C%E9%A2%84%E8%A8%80%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E8%B0%8E%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">失业，预言还是谎言</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E7%94%9F%E6%88%90%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码生成大模型的不足</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B1%E9%99%A9%E7%9A%84%E7%99%BD%E9%A2%86"><span class="toc-number">7.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">危险的白领</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A3%E8%A7%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">正视人性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8B%E8%BF%98%E6%B2%A1%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">7.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">咋还没改变世界？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9A%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">7.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">失业与分配</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E5%B0%81%E5%BB%BA%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">7.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">科技封建主义</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E6%9C%AA%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拥抱未来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E9%80%82%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育适配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E7%96%AF%E9%AD%94"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要疯魔</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%83%E6%8A%80%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">7.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">元技能</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E8%A2%ABAI%E5%8F%96%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">7.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成为一个无法被AI取代的人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">7.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">新世界什么样</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美AI研究差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲在哪?</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E8%AF%8D%E8%AF%9D%E4%B8%89%E6%96%B9"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">一个词话三方</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">截止23年6月的评测报告</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88%E5%BE%97%E5%88%86%E8%AF%84%E4%BC%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">综合得分评估</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E7%82%B9%E8%AF%84"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中文能力点评</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E8%A6%81%E8%AF%84%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">简要评价</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023年10月OpenAI的价值观变动议论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9E%85%E7%9E%85MVV%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">瞅瞅MVV概念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AA%81%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">突发事件</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">2024年7月思考</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">世界有多少有用文本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#1T-%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E8%B1%A1%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">1T 数据的具象量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%9C%89%E7%94%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E6%9C%AC%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球有用的文本量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA20-%E5%B2%81%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E7%B4%AF%E7%A7%AF%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一个20 岁人的累积量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">DeepSeek</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E5%8E%82%E6%B2%A1%E6%88%8F%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小厂没戏？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A4%E5%9F%8E%E6%B2%B3"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">护城河</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">13.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">13.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">13.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#MLA"><span class="toc-number">13.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">MLA</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%92%B8%E9%A6%8F"><span class="toc-number">13.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">模型蒸馏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#R1-%E7%9A%84%E5%B1%80%E9%99%90%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">13.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">R1 的局限性</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%BC%E6%B3%A8%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">13.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">押注路线方向</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#RL-is-all-you-need"><span class="toc-number">13.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">RL is all you need</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%8C%E7%8E%B0"><span class="toc-number">13.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">涌现</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">13.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">开放</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#80-%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%87%E6%92%BC"><span class="toc-number">13.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">80 后的震撼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">25年5月的AI成熟度盘点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">用好 AI 创造价值</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%B0%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">15.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据到大模型的历程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">15.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用一切技术创造价值</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E9%82%A3%E4%BA%9B%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E6%98%93%E4%BA%8E%E5%81%9A%E6%88%90AI%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">在那些方向易于做成AI成果</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%92%8C%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E5%8A%9B%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生产力和竞争力提升</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E5%92%8C%E4%BD%93%E9%AA%8C%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">业务效率和体验提升</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B2%E8%8C%83%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">防范关键风险</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">15.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型落地方法论</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">惊喜与惊醒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">NLP研究范式转变</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E5%88%B0%E4%B8%A4%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从深度学习到两阶段训练模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">深度学习期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">两阶段训练大模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%A6%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">带来的影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E9%97%B4%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E6%B6%88%E4%BA%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中间任务消亡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术路线统一</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%84%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E5%88%B0%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">预训练到通用人工智能</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ChatGPT"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ChatGPT</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#ChatGPT%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E4%BA%86GPT-3-5%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">ChatGPT改变了GPT-3.5什么？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E6%9E%84%E6%88%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM的知识构成</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%AD%98%E5%8F%96%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何存取知识</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%84%E6%A8%A1%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM的规模效应</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%8A%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%81%9A%E5%B0%8F%E4%BC%9A%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8DLLM%E7%9A%84%E6%B6%8C%E7%8E%B0%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">把模型做小会影响LLM的涌现能力么</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Transformer%E7%9A%84%E7%A8%80%E7%96%8F%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Transformer的稀疏化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%9C%BA%E4%BA%A4%E4%BA%92"><span class="toc-number">2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">人机交互</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%A2%9E%E5%BC%BALLM%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%A8%E7%90%86%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何增强LLM的推理能力</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">算力约束下的最优培养策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">AGI？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何是OpenAI</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Why-OpenAI-Not-Google"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Why OpenAI Not Google</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Step-By-Step"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Step By Step</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E5%BF%83%E6%8F%92%E6%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无心插柳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9AI%E6%81%90%E6%83%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E7%AD%94"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">面对AI恐惧的解答</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">成本与挑战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型分布式训练挑战</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E8%80%97%E6%97%B6%E4%B8%8E%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">深度学习训练耗时与优化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B6%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%8E%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E6%A6%82%E8%A7%88"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">并行与内存优化概览</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分布式模型训练加速</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E7%B2%97%E7%95%A5%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型研发粗略基础架构</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%BA%E7%AE%97%E9%9B%86%E7%BE%A4%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">智算集群成本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%82%E5%90%88%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%82%BC%E4%B8%B9"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">适合普通玩家的炼丹</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">冲击</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%87%E7%82%B9%E4%B8%B4%E8%BF%91"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">奇点临近</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9A%EF%BC%8C%E9%A2%84%E8%A8%80%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E8%B0%8E%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">失业，预言还是谎言</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E7%94%9F%E6%88%90%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码生成大模型的不足</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B1%E9%99%A9%E7%9A%84%E7%99%BD%E9%A2%86"><span class="toc-number">7.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">危险的白领</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A3%E8%A7%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">正视人性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8B%E8%BF%98%E6%B2%A1%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">7.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">咋还没改变世界？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9A%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">7.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">失业与分配</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E5%B0%81%E5%BB%BA%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">7.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">科技封建主义</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E6%9C%AA%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拥抱未来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E9%80%82%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育适配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E7%96%AF%E9%AD%94"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要疯魔</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%83%E6%8A%80%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">7.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">元技能</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E8%A2%ABAI%E5%8F%96%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">7.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成为一个无法被AI取代的人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">7.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">新世界什么样</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美AI研究差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲在哪?</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E8%AF%8D%E8%AF%9D%E4%B8%89%E6%96%B9"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">一个词话三方</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">截止23年6月的评测报告</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88%E5%BE%97%E5%88%86%E8%AF%84%E4%BC%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">综合得分评估</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E7%82%B9%E8%AF%84"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中文能力点评</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E8%A6%81%E8%AF%84%E4%BB%B7"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">简要评价</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">2023年10月OpenAI的价值观变动议论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9E%85%E7%9E%85MVV%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">瞅瞅MVV概念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AA%81%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">突发事件</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">2024年7月思考</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">世界有多少有用文本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#1T-%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E8%B1%A1%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">1T 数据的具象量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%9C%89%E7%94%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E6%9C%AC%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">全球有用的文本量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA20-%E5%B2%81%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E7%B4%AF%E7%A7%AF%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一个20 岁人的累积量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">DeepSeek</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E5%8E%82%E6%B2%A1%E6%88%8F%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小厂没戏？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A4%E5%9F%8E%E6%B2%B3"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">护城河</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">13.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">13.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD"><span class="toc-number">13.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#MLA"><span class="toc-number">13.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">MLA</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%92%B8%E9%A6%8F"><span class="toc-number">13.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">模型蒸馏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#R1-%E7%9A%84%E5%B1%80%E9%99%90%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">13.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">R1 的局限性</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%BC%E6%B3%A8%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">13.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">押注路线方向</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#RL-is-all-you-need"><span class="toc-number">13.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">RL is all you need</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%8C%E7%8E%B0"><span class="toc-number">13.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">涌现</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">13.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">开放</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#80-%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%87%E6%92%BC"><span class="toc-number">13.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">80 后的震撼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">25年5月的AI成熟度盘点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">用好 AI 创造价值</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%B0%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">15.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据到大模型的历程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">15.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用一切技术创造价值</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E9%82%A3%E4%BA%9B%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E6%98%93%E4%BA%8E%E5%81%9A%E6%88%90AI%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">在那些方向易于做成AI成果</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%92%8C%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E5%8A%9B%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生产力和竞争力提升</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E5%92%8C%E4%BD%93%E9%AA%8C%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">业务效率和体验提升</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B2%E8%8C%83%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">15.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">防范关键风险</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">15.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型落地方法论</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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diff --git "a/\345\244\256\350\241\214\350\264\237\345\200\272\350\241\250\350\247\243\350\257\273.html" "b/\345\244\256\350\241\214\350\264\237\345\200\272\350\241\250\350\247\243\350\257\273.html"
index e5bbf28ef5..c28c389d23 100644
--- "a/\345\244\256\350\241\214\350\264\237\345\200\272\350\241\250\350\247\243\350\257\273.html"
+++ "b/\345\244\256\350\241\214\350\264\237\345\200\272\350\241\250\350\247\243\350\257\273.html"
@@ -980,7 +980,7 @@ <h2 id="是什么蛋糕">是什么蛋糕</h2>
 </ol>
 <p>货币发行方式的改变都是发展阶段的变化，从打工者升级到包工头，再到企业老板的变化，<font color="dodgerblue">打工阶级要会存钱，老板阶段要会花钱</font>。</p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">央行的资产</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资产数据解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美央行数据差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美联储</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%89%AD%E6%9B%B2%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美联储的扭曲操作</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人民银行</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9-%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人行的特点&amp;优势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%8F%A3%E5%BE%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美口径差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%A1%8C%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E8%A1%8C%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人行基础货币的发行渠道</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">央行的负债</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB-2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%82%A8%E5%A4%87%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">储备货币</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-154360-%E7%B2%BE%E8%A6%81%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A-font"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">精要解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E7%AB%AF%E7%9A%84%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E9%BD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">与资产端的转换对齐</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">近20年央行负债表关键数字</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A314%E5%B9%B4%E8%8A%82%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何理解14年节点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E6%94%BE%E5%86%B2%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">央行的投放冲动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E9%9B%86"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融工具集</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">M1和M2</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#M2%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2的解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%BD%93%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%B1%82%E6%AC%A1%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主要经济体货币层次定义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#M2%E5%A2%9E%E5%8A%A0%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2增加是什么原因</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E2%80%9C%E5%AF%8C%E2%80%9D%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们怎么快速“富”起来的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8-2"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">美联储</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C-2"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人民银行</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#M2-GDP%E6%AF%94%E7%8E%87%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2&#x2F;GDP比率解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98M2%E5%BD%B0%E6%98%BE%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E8%BE%83%E4%BD%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高M2彰显中国金融效率较低</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%82%A8%E8%93%84%E7%8E%87%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国储蓄率变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E4%BD%8F%E6%88%B7%E5%82%A8%E8%93%84%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">共同富裕，平衡住户储蓄结构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AB%E5%AF%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%EF%BC%9A6%E2%80%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">贫富的分布：6‱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E9%83%A8%E9%97%A8%E5%82%A8%E8%93%84%E6%89%BF%E5%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业部门储蓄承压</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2和社融</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E4%B8%8B%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结下二者关系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">分部门债务数据</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本市场的供给问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为杠杆金融风险</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%85%E6%B0%91%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E7%8E%87%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">居民杠杆率分析</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%A9%E5%92%8C%E9%99%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">温和降杠杆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%BE%E7%B4%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币政策的松紧</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自24年的变动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AE%E5%A6%88%E4%B8%8B%E5%9C%BA%E4%B9%B0%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">央妈下场买国债</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A3%E5%90%91%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92%EF%BC%9A%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%BD%AE%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">正向的视角：阶段轮动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%9B%8B%E7%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">是什么蛋糕</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a 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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">央行的资产</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资产数据解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美央行数据差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美联储</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%89%AD%E6%9B%B2%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美联储的扭曲操作</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人民银行</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9-%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人行的特点&amp;优势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%8F%A3%E5%BE%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美口径差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%A1%8C%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E8%A1%8C%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人行基础货币的发行渠道</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">央行的负债</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB-2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%82%A8%E5%A4%87%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">储备货币</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-154360-%E7%B2%BE%E8%A6%81%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A-font"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">精要解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E7%AB%AF%E7%9A%84%E8%BD%AC%E6%8D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E9%BD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">与资产端的转换对齐</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">近20年央行负债表关键数字</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A314%E5%B9%B4%E8%8A%82%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何理解14年节点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E6%94%BE%E5%86%B2%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">央行的投放冲动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E9%9B%86"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融工具集</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">M1和M2</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#M2%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2的解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E4%BD%93%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%B1%82%E6%AC%A1%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主要经济体货币层次定义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#M2%E5%A2%9E%E5%8A%A0%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2增加是什么原因</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E2%80%9C%E5%AF%8C%E2%80%9D%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们怎么快速“富”起来的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8-2"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">美联储</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C-2"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人民银行</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#M2-GDP%E6%AF%94%E7%8E%87%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2&#x2F;GDP比率解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98M2%E5%BD%B0%E6%98%BE%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E8%BE%83%E4%BD%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高M2彰显中国金融效率较低</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%82%A8%E8%93%84%E7%8E%87%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国储蓄率变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E4%BD%8F%E6%88%B7%E5%82%A8%E8%93%84%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">共同富裕，平衡住户储蓄结构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AB%E5%AF%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%EF%BC%9A6%E2%80%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">贫富的分布：6‱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E9%83%A8%E9%97%A8%E5%82%A8%E8%93%84%E6%89%BF%E5%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业部门储蓄承压</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">M2和社融</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E4%B8%8B%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结下二者关系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">分部门债务数据</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本市场的供给问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为杠杆金融风险</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%85%E6%B0%91%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E7%8E%87%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">居民杠杆率分析</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%A9%E5%92%8C%E9%99%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">温和降杠杆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%BE%E7%B4%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币政策的松紧</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">来自24年的变动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AE%E5%A6%88%E4%B8%8B%E5%9C%BA%E4%B9%B0%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">央妈下场买国债</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A3%E5%90%91%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92%EF%BC%9A%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E8%BD%AE%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">正向的视角：阶段轮动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%9B%8B%E7%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">是什么蛋糕</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a 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diff --git "a/\345\245\263\346\200\247\345\251\232\346\201\213\347\233\270\344\272\262\347\252\230\345\242\203.html" "b/\345\245\263\346\200\247\345\251\232\346\201\213\347\233\270\344\272\262\347\252\230\345\242\203.html"
index 70b6c0d987..7896f7e5dc 100644
--- "a/\345\245\263\346\200\247\345\251\232\346\201\213\347\233\270\344\272\262\347\252\230\345\242\203.html"
+++ "b/\345\245\263\346\200\247\345\251\232\346\201\213\347\233\270\344\272\262\347\252\230\345\242\203.html"
@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>如<u>失业久了容易丧失工作能力，单身久了也是类似的道理</u>。<strong>爱一个人或与人融通相处，也是一种能力。所以了解对方的需求，合理评估自己，把爱他人的能力培育起来</strong>，比设计择偶条件有用。做好这些，相信真爱就在拐角处。</p>
 <p>婚姻曾是农业社会的生存&quot;刚需&quot;，但走到当今社会，如今更是两个独立灵魂的共谋，两个人敢不敢一起走新路，决定这场关系，可能给两个人插上翅膀，但也可能陷入一个『牢笼』，毕竟选择一个人，选择一段感情，其实就是选择了一种生活。当下，人们普遍处于纠结之中，很多人觉得自己很浪漫，但实际上真正做选择的时候，又很现实。而真正的勇士可以现实主义和浪漫主义并存，就像认清生活真相后仍然热爱生活。选择单身的人，以咖啡馆、剧场、书籍为伴，在孤独中与万千世界对话，也可能是『对生命可能性的诚实』，这个时代珍贵的就是每个人都拥有了书写剧本的权利。</p>
 <p>我们正身处一个新的大航海时代，今天的大航海是每个人向内探索的文化远征，是在快速前行的世界中，对自己精神锚点的探索。过去的社会像一艘巨轮，只要按部就班，就能抵达终点，如今，更多人像千万艘独木舟，在汪洋中各自寻路。</p>
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href="#%E7%94%B7%E5%A5%B3%E6%96%B9%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">男女方的相亲认知偏差</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E8%B4%A8%E5%9B%A7%E5%A2%83%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女性的特质囧境分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%AF%B9%E6%96%B9%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不知道对方什么需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%BC%B0%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高估自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%85%95%E5%BC%BA%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8B%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">慕强无法向下兼容</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E8%A7%92"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市相亲角</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B3%99%E8%AF%9D%E8%AF%B4%E6%89%BE%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E7%BB%9F%E5%85%B1%E5%B0%B1%E5%88%86%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">糙话说找对象统共就分三类</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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href="#%E7%94%B7%E5%A5%B3%E6%96%B9%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">男女方的相亲认知偏差</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E8%B4%A8%E5%9B%A7%E5%A2%83%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女性的特质囧境分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93%E5%AF%B9%E6%96%B9%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不知道对方什么需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%BC%B0%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高估自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%85%95%E5%BC%BA%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8B%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">慕强无法向下兼容</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E7%9B%B8%E4%BA%B2%E8%A7%92"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">城市相亲角</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B3%99%E8%AF%9D%E8%AF%B4%E6%89%BE%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E7%BB%9F%E5%85%B1%E5%B0%B1%E5%88%86%E4%B8%89%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">糙话说找对象统共就分三类</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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@@ -809,7 +809,7 @@ <h2 id="肯定你的消费者">肯定你的消费者</h2>
 <h1>尊重选择权</h1>
 <p>大家都喜欢有选择权，对小孩亦如此。</p>
 <p>在有选择的情况下，人才乐于改变；营造选择感的话术，并不是欺骗，而是从对方角度出发，表现你的关心和体谅。</p>
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title="阅读-表达-写作的训练"><img class="cover" src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210222163937.png" alt="cover"><div class="content is-center"><div class="date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history fa-fw"></i> 2025-01-22</div><div class="title">阅读-表达-写作的训练</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">尴尬与紧张</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">不好听的话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E6%85%B0%EF%BC%9A%E7%A6%81%E5%BF%8C%E6%98%AF%E6%8A%8A%E5%AF%B9%E6%96%B9%E5%BD%93%E5%BC%B1%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">安慰：禁忌是把对方当弱者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">危机对话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%B9%E8%AF%84%E6%8C%87%E8%B4%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">批评指责</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%81%E5%BF%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">禁忌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%88%E9%80%82%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">合适的策略</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%92%E7%BB%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">拒绝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我推销</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E6%AD%A3%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%81%87%E8%AE%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">公正世界假设</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%8E%A8%E9%94%80%E6%98%AF%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E8%80%85%E5%BF%85%E5%A4%87%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我推销是成功者必备的能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%8E%A8%E9%94%80"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">错误的自我推销</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E5%A5%BD%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B%EF%BC%8C%E6%89%93%E9%80%A0%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E5%93%81%E7%89%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲好自己的故事，打造自我品牌</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%A0%E8%B7%9F%E5%88%AB%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%80%E6%A0%B7%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%A0%E5%BE%88%E5%8E%89%E5%AE%B3%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%A0%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E4%BF%A1%E4%BB%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">你跟别人不一样，你很厉害，你值得信任</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%8F%E8%BD%BB%E5%90%AC%E4%BC%97%E6%81%B6%E6%84%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9E%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">减轻听众恶感的办法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">原则</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">年终总结</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8-%E9%83%A8%E9%97%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E4%B8%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E5%92%8C%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E7%BB%A9%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">在公司&#x2F;部门的核心目标下自己的任务和核心绩效</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%E7%BB%A9%E6%95%88%E5%AE%8C%E6%88%90%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">报告绩效完成情况</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%8F%A3%E8%AF%AD%E5%8C%96%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%B8%8A%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何口语化理解上面的内容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">注意原则</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">竞聘</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E4%B8%AA%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决的两个问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%AE%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何讲</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A8%E8%BE%BE%E5%AF%B9%E8%BF%99%E4%B8%AA%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">表达对这个岗位的理解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%81%E6%98%8E%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">证明自己的能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B4%E8%B6%A3%E5%92%8C%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8E%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D%E7%9B%B8%E7%AC%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兴趣和价值观，与岗位相符的地方</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">塑造个人魅力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A8%E8%BE%BE%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83%E5%92%8C%E8%AF%B7%E6%B1%82%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81"><span class="toc-number">5.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">表达信心和请求支持</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">饭局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E8%B0%A2"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">感谢</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E9%A1%BE"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">回顾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9D%E7%A6%8F%E5%92%8C%E5%B8%8C%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">祝福和希望</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">即兴表达</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%89%E5%8F%96%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">争取时间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%8B%E6%9C%8D%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%EF%BC%8C%E6%9E%9C%E6%96%AD%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">克服完美主义，果断开口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D%E4%B8%89%E6%AE%B5%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">说话三段论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%A4%B4%E5%88%87%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开头切入</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A2%E5%87%BA%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%82%E7%82%B9%E5%92%8C%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">7.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">丢出自己的观点和说话的结构</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%A6%E7%8E%87%E7%A0%B4%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87%E5%B0%B4%E5%B0%AC%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%99%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">坦率破一切尴尬，这是最后的武器</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%AF%E7%B4%AF%E6%AF%94%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%EF%BC%8C%E7%BB%83%E4%B9%A0%E6%AF%94%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">7.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">积累比技巧重要，练习比学习重要</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">路演</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲清楚你的目标</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E8%BE%BE%E5%88%B0%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E9%80%94%E5%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲清楚达到目标的途径</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E6%89%A7%E8%A1%8C%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲清楚执行能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">提出你的要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B3%B0%E7%BB%88"><span class="toc-number">8.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">峰终</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">销售</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B8%E5%9E%8B%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户的典型心理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E5%8A%A8%E6%8C%96%E6%8E%98%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">互动挖掘客户需求</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E8%A1%A8%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的需求，并不是表面的需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%A8%A1%E7%B3%8A%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">具体的需求而不是模糊的需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%BC%E5%89%8D%E8%BF%99%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">眼前这个人的需求而不是群体需求</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">介绍你的产品</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%83%E9%94%80"><span class="toc-number">9.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">促销</span></a></li><li class="toc-item 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anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">尴尬与紧张</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">不好听的话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E6%85%B0%EF%BC%9A%E7%A6%81%E5%BF%8C%E6%98%AF%E6%8A%8A%E5%AF%B9%E6%96%B9%E5%BD%93%E5%BC%B1%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">安慰：禁忌是把对方当弱者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">危机对话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%B9%E8%AF%84%E6%8C%87%E8%B4%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">批评指责</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%81%E5%BF%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">禁忌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%88%E9%80%82%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">合适的策略</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%92%E7%BB%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">拒绝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我推销</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E6%AD%A3%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%81%87%E8%AE%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">公正世界假设</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%8E%A8%E9%94%80%E6%98%AF%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E8%80%85%E5%BF%85%E5%A4%87%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我推销是成功者必备的能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%8E%A8%E9%94%80"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">错误的自我推销</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E5%A5%BD%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B%EF%BC%8C%E6%89%93%E9%80%A0%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E5%93%81%E7%89%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲好自己的故事，打造自我品牌</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%A0%E8%B7%9F%E5%88%AB%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%80%E6%A0%B7%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%A0%E5%BE%88%E5%8E%89%E5%AE%B3%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%A0%E5%80%BC%E5%BE%97%E4%BF%A1%E4%BB%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">你跟别人不一样，你很厉害，你值得信任</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%8F%E8%BD%BB%E5%90%AC%E4%BC%97%E6%81%B6%E6%84%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9E%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">减轻听众恶感的办法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">原则</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">年终总结</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8-%E9%83%A8%E9%97%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E4%B8%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E5%92%8C%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E7%BB%A9%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">在公司&#x2F;部门的核心目标下自己的任务和核心绩效</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%E7%BB%A9%E6%95%88%E5%AE%8C%E6%88%90%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">报告绩效完成情况</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%8F%A3%E8%AF%AD%E5%8C%96%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%B8%8A%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何口语化理解上面的内容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">注意原则</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">竞聘</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E4%B8%AA%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决的两个问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%AE%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何讲</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A8%E8%BE%BE%E5%AF%B9%E8%BF%99%E4%B8%AA%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">表达对这个岗位的理解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%81%E6%98%8E%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">证明自己的能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B4%E8%B6%A3%E5%92%8C%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E8%A7%82%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8E%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D%E7%9B%B8%E7%AC%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兴趣和价值观，与岗位相符的地方</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">塑造个人魅力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A8%E8%BE%BE%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83%E5%92%8C%E8%AF%B7%E6%B1%82%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81"><span class="toc-number">5.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">表达信心和请求支持</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">饭局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E8%B0%A2"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">感谢</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E9%A1%BE"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">回顾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9D%E7%A6%8F%E5%92%8C%E5%B8%8C%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">祝福和希望</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">即兴表达</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%89%E5%8F%96%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">争取时间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%8B%E6%9C%8D%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%EF%BC%8C%E6%9E%9C%E6%96%AD%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">克服完美主义，果断开口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D%E4%B8%89%E6%AE%B5%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">说话三段论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%A4%B4%E5%88%87%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开头切入</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A2%E5%87%BA%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%82%E7%82%B9%E5%92%8C%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">7.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">丢出自己的观点和说话的结构</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%A6%E7%8E%87%E7%A0%B4%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87%E5%B0%B4%E5%B0%AC%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%99%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">坦率破一切尴尬，这是最后的武器</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%AF%E7%B4%AF%E6%AF%94%E6%8A%80%E5%B7%A7%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%EF%BC%8C%E7%BB%83%E4%B9%A0%E6%AF%94%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">7.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">积累比技巧重要，练习比学习重要</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">路演</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲清楚你的目标</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E8%BE%BE%E5%88%B0%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E9%80%94%E5%BE%84"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲清楚达到目标的途径</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B2%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E6%89%A7%E8%A1%8C%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">讲清楚执行能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">提出你的要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B3%B0%E7%BB%88"><span class="toc-number">8.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">峰终</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">销售</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B8%E5%9E%8B%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户的典型心理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E5%8A%A8%E6%8C%96%E6%8E%98%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">互动挖掘客户需求</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E8%A1%A8%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的需求，并不是表面的需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%A8%A1%E7%B3%8A%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">具体的需求而不是模糊的需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%BC%E5%89%8D%E8%BF%99%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">眼前这个人的需求而不是群体需求</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">介绍你的产品</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%83%E9%94%80"><span class="toc-number">9.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">促销</span></a></li><li class="toc-item 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diff --git "a/\345\246\202\344\275\225\346\213\245\346\234\211\347\227\233\350\213\246\350\200\214\345\217\210\346\212\221\351\203\201\347\232\204\344\272\272\347\224\237.html" "b/\345\246\202\344\275\225\346\213\245\346\234\211\347\227\233\350\213\246\350\200\214\345\217\210\346\212\221\351\203\201\347\232\204\344\272\272\347\224\237.html"
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@@ -212,7 +212,7 @@ <h2 id="准备好了再开始">准备好了再开始</h2>
 <p>这就是第三个窍门了。黄埔将星璀璨的那几期，并不是学校教的好，其实只上了7个月的课，而且也没教啥，都是在后来的战争中成长了起来；</p>
 <p>这在商界中也非常明显，学习牛逼的去了美丽国，剩下的在中国市场化大浪潮中拼搏，挺过来的都是神人了。</p>
 <p>事情比知识重要，有事先做事，反复思考后充分意识到困难，就拖着一直不开始，停留在思考阶段，初心到头来你都会忘记。</p>
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diff --git "a/\345\255\230\347\256\227\345\210\206\347\246\273.html" "b/\345\255\230\347\256\227\345\210\206\347\246\273.html"
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@@ -438,7 +438,7 @@ <h5 id="分层设计（以兼容-pgsql-举例）">分层设计（以兼容 pgsql
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 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/u013253075/article/details/119843611">RDMA的三种实现方式</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">博客园 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.cnblogs.com/ztguang/p/15203071.html">详解RDMA 架构和技术原理</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1373500">CynosDB的计算层设计优化揭秘</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright__original" title="该文章为原创文章，注意版权协议" 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%86%85%E6%B6%B5%E5%92%8C%E7%BC%98%E7%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念内涵和缘由</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E7%AA%84%E5%8C%96%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念窄化明确</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%93%B6%E8%A3%85%E6%97%A7%E9%85%92%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新瓶装旧酒？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%B1%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">存算分离的弱势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%BA%E5%99%A8%E6%B5%AA%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">机器浪费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%BA%E5%99%A8%E9%85%8D%E6%AF%94%E9%9C%80%E9%A2%91%E7%B9%81%E6%9B%B4%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">机器配比需频繁更新</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A9%E5%B1%95%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%93"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩展不易</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#RDMA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">RDMA</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#SSD-%E5%82%AC%E7%94%9F%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%8E%A5%E5%8F%A3%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E8%A6%81%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SSD 催生网络接口性能要升级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#RDMA-%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E6%8F%8F%E8%BF%B0%E4%B8%8E%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E6%B2%BF%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">RDMA 的特征描述与历史沿革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E6%97%A5%E5%BB%BA%E6%88%90%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">罗马不是一日建成的</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">实施特点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">网络实现</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Infiniband%EF%BC%88IB%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Infiniband（IB）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E4%BB%A5%E5%A4%AA%E7%BD%91%E7%9A%84-RDMA-%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">基于以太网的 RDMA 技术</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#RoCE%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E5%9C%88%E7%81%AB%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">RoCE（互联网圈火）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#iWARP"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">iWARP</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5%E6%B2%A1%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E6%A0%87%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">为啥没成为标配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E9%9A%BE%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术难度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">硬件成本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">场景</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DB-%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DB 篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#NewSQL-%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B0%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">NewSQL 的新趋势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%E9%9B%86%E7%BE%A4%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%A0%E7%BB%9F%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据库集群的传统矛盾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#NoSQL-%E5%92%8C-SQL-%E7%9A%84%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">NoSQL 和 SQL 的融合</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%A6%E7%9B%90%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构带盐人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#Google-Spanner%EF%BC%88%E6%89%B3%E6%89%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Google Spanner（扳手）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#Amazon-Aurora%EF%BC%88%E6%9E%81%E5%85%89-%E6%9B%99%E5%85%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Amazon Aurora（极光&#x2F;曙光)</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Aurora-%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Aurora 模式优势说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优势场景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分离优势总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E7%B1%BB-Aurora-%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93-Cynos%EF%BC%88%E5%8C%97%E6%9E%81%E6%98%9F%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国产类 Aurora 数据库 Cynos（北极星）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E5%BF%97%E5%8D%B3%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%BB%E4%BB%8E%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E9%A1%B5%E5%90%8C%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.0.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">日志即存储，主从内存页同步</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%81-IO"><span class="toc-number">3.3.0.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户态 IO</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%EF%BC%88%E4%BB%A5%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9-pgsql-%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.0.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">分层设计（以兼容 pgsql 举例）</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E5%86%85%E6%B6%B5%E5%92%8C%E7%BC%98%E7%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念内涵和缘由</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E7%AA%84%E5%8C%96%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念窄化明确</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%93%B6%E8%A3%85%E6%97%A7%E9%85%92%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新瓶装旧酒？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E7%AE%97%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%B1%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">存算分离的弱势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%BA%E5%99%A8%E6%B5%AA%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">机器浪费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%BA%E5%99%A8%E9%85%8D%E6%AF%94%E9%9C%80%E9%A2%91%E7%B9%81%E6%9B%B4%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">机器配比需频繁更新</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A9%E5%B1%95%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%93"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩展不易</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#RDMA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">RDMA</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#SSD-%E5%82%AC%E7%94%9F%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%8E%A5%E5%8F%A3%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E8%A6%81%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SSD 催生网络接口性能要升级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#RDMA-%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E6%8F%8F%E8%BF%B0%E4%B8%8E%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E6%B2%BF%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">RDMA 的特征描述与历史沿革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%97%E9%A9%AC%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E6%97%A5%E5%BB%BA%E6%88%90%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">罗马不是一日建成的</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">实施特点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">网络实现</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Infiniband%EF%BC%88IB%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Infiniband（IB）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E4%BB%A5%E5%A4%AA%E7%BD%91%E7%9A%84-RDMA-%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">基于以太网的 RDMA 技术</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#RoCE%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E5%9C%88%E7%81%AB%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">RoCE（互联网圈火）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#iWARP"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">iWARP</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5%E6%B2%A1%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E6%A0%87%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">为啥没成为标配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E9%9A%BE%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术难度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">硬件成本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">场景</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DB-%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DB 篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#NewSQL-%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B0%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">NewSQL 的新趋势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%E9%9B%86%E7%BE%A4%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%A0%E7%BB%9F%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据库集群的传统矛盾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#NoSQL-%E5%92%8C-SQL-%E7%9A%84%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">NoSQL 和 SQL 的融合</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%A6%E7%9B%90%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构带盐人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#Google-Spanner%EF%BC%88%E6%89%B3%E6%89%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Google Spanner（扳手）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#Amazon-Aurora%EF%BC%88%E6%9E%81%E5%85%89-%E6%9B%99%E5%85%89"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Amazon Aurora（极光&#x2F;曙光)</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Aurora-%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Aurora 模式优势说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优势场景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分离优势总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E7%B1%BB-Aurora-%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93-Cynos%EF%BC%88%E5%8C%97%E6%9E%81%E6%98%9F%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国产类 Aurora 数据库 Cynos（北极星）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E5%BF%97%E5%8D%B3%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%BB%E4%BB%8E%E5%86%85%E5%AD%98%E9%A1%B5%E5%90%8C%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.0.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">日志即存储，主从内存页同步</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%80%81-IO"><span class="toc-number">3.3.0.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户态 IO</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%EF%BC%88%E4%BB%A5%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9-pgsql-%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.0.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">分层设计（以兼容 pgsql 举例）</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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diff --git "a/\345\255\246\344\271\240\351\243\216\346\240\274\344\270\216\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\226\271\345\274\217.html" "b/\345\255\246\344\271\240\351\243\216\346\240\274\344\270\216\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\226\271\345\274\217.html"
index a689c93778..bcfb253ce1 100644
--- "a/\345\255\246\344\271\240\351\243\216\346\240\274\344\270\216\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\226\271\345\274\217.html"
+++ "b/\345\255\246\344\271\240\351\243\216\346\240\274\344\270\216\345\217\221\345\261\225\346\226\271\345\274\217.html"
@@ -249,7 +249,7 @@ <h3 id="情境领导">情境领导</h3>
 <p><img src= "data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" onerror="this.onerror=null,this.src=&quot;/img/404.jpg&quot;" data-lazy-src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20201019132606.png" alt="情景领导行为"></p>
 <h3 id="PDP-性格测试">PDP 性格测试</h3>
 <p><img src= "data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" onerror="this.onerror=null,this.src=&quot;/img/404.jpg&quot;" data-lazy-src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231206094153.png" alt="DISC行为风格测试"></p>
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diff --git "a/\345\256\266\345\272\255\347\232\204\350\247\211\351\206\222.html" "b/\345\256\266\345\272\255\347\232\204\350\247\211\351\206\222.html"
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+++ "b/\345\256\266\345\272\255\347\232\204\350\247\211\351\206\222.html"
@@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ <h2 id="胡长的树-无用之用">胡长的树-无用之用</h2>
 </blockquote>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>我们养育孩子，孩子也在养育我们，唤醒我们内在最深处的智慧和慈悲，愿你终能跟内在小孩真诚相拥，也成为孩子生命中那面清澈温暖永不碎裂的明镜。</p>
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@@ -445,7 +445,7 @@ <h4 id="用美好的歌词收尾">用美好的歌词收尾</h4>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%83%BD%E4%BC%A0%E5%94%B1%E8%BF%99%E4%B9%88%E5%A4%9A%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么能传唱这么多年</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%91%87%E6%BB%9A%E4%BC%A0%E5%A5%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">摇滚传奇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人员变动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%9B%9B%E4%BA%BA%E8%B5%B0%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%80%E8%B5%B7%E5%A4%B9Band"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何四人走在一起夹Band</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%BA%E6%BC%94%E5%94%B1%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后一场演唱会</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E5%A4%A9%E6%89%8D%E4%B8%80%E8%AF%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">解读天才一词</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%92%8C%E9%98%BFPaul%E7%9A%84%E5%90%89%E4%BB%96%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">家驹和阿Paul的吉他对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%90-vs-%E5%9B%9B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">三子 vs 四子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">部分创作背景</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%8D%E8%A7%81%E7%90%86%E6%83%B3%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">再见理想专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%B8%E8%BF%9C%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">永远等待专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E6%8B%89%E4%BC%AF%E8%B7%B3%E8%88%9E%E5%A5%B3%E9%83%8E%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚拉伯跳舞女郎专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E8%88%9E%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代舞台专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E6%BC%94%E5%94%B1%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">北京演唱会</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BEYOND-IV"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">BEYOND IV</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%81%E8%AF%81%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">真的见证专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%B0%E8%89%B2%E8%BD%A8%E8%BF%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">灰色轨迹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90%E6%B4%BE%E5%AF%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">命运派对</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8A%B9%E8%B1%AB%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">犹豫专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%A7%E7%BB%AD%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">继续革命</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%90%E4%B8%8E%E6%80%92"><span class="toc-number">3.12.</span> <span class="toc-text">乐与怒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E9%98%94%E5%A4%A9%E7%A9%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">海阔天空</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%97%A0%E4%BA%BA%E8%AF%86%E5%88%B0%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%BB%9D%E5%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.12.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从无人识到时代绝唱</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E7%BA%AA%E5%BF%B5%E9%9B%8692-93"><span class="toc-number">3.13.</span> <span class="toc-text">特别纪念集92~93</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">陨落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%90%88%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后的合照</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E4%B8%AA%E7%BA%AA%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">做个纪念</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%89%E4%BB%96%E7%85%A7-%E6%98%94%E6%97%A5%E8%88%9E%E6%9B%B2%E6%89%8B%E7%A8%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">吉他照+昔日舞曲手稿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%B8%AD%E6%97%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%9C%E6%96%87%E5%8E%9F%E7%A8%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高中时的作文原稿</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%9C%80%E7%BB%88%E8%A7%A3%E6%95%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于最终解散</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好的一面的解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">坏的一面的还原</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#8090%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%B3%E9%AB%98%E5%B3%B0"><span 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E8%83%BD%E4%BC%A0%E5%94%B1%E8%BF%99%E4%B9%88%E5%A4%9A%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为什么能传唱这么多年</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%91%87%E6%BB%9A%E4%BC%A0%E5%A5%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">摇滚传奇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人员变动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%9B%9B%E4%BA%BA%E8%B5%B0%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%80%E8%B5%B7%E5%A4%B9Band"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何四人走在一起夹Band</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%BA%E6%BC%94%E5%94%B1%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后一场演唱会</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E5%A4%A9%E6%89%8D%E4%B8%80%E8%AF%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">解读天才一词</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E9%A9%B9%E5%92%8C%E9%98%BFPaul%E7%9A%84%E5%90%89%E4%BB%96%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">家驹和阿Paul的吉他对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%90-vs-%E5%9B%9B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">三子 vs 四子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">部分创作背景</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%8D%E8%A7%81%E7%90%86%E6%83%B3%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">再见理想专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%B8%E8%BF%9C%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">永远等待专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E6%8B%89%E4%BC%AF%E8%B7%B3%E8%88%9E%E5%A5%B3%E9%83%8E%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚拉伯跳舞女郎专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E8%88%9E%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代舞台专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E6%BC%94%E5%94%B1%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">北京演唱会</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BEYOND-IV"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">BEYOND IV</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%81%E8%AF%81%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">真的见证专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%B0%E8%89%B2%E8%BD%A8%E8%BF%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">灰色轨迹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90%E6%B4%BE%E5%AF%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">命运派对</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8A%B9%E8%B1%AB%E4%B8%93%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">3.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">犹豫专辑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%A7%E7%BB%AD%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.11.</span> <span class="toc-text">继续革命</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%90%E4%B8%8E%E6%80%92"><span class="toc-number">3.12.</span> <span class="toc-text">乐与怒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E9%98%94%E5%A4%A9%E7%A9%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">海阔天空</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E6%97%A0%E4%BA%BA%E8%AF%86%E5%88%B0%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%BB%9D%E5%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.12.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从无人识到时代绝唱</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E7%BA%AA%E5%BF%B5%E9%9B%8692-93"><span class="toc-number">3.13.</span> <span class="toc-text">特别纪念集92~93</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%A8%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">陨落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%90%88%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后的合照</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E4%B8%AA%E7%BA%AA%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">做个纪念</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%89%E4%BB%96%E7%85%A7-%E6%98%94%E6%97%A5%E8%88%9E%E6%9B%B2%E6%89%8B%E7%A8%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">吉他照+昔日舞曲手稿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E4%B8%AD%E6%97%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%9C%E6%96%87%E5%8E%9F%E7%A8%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高中时的作文原稿</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%9C%80%E7%BB%88%E8%A7%A3%E6%95%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于最终解散</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好的一面的解释</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%98%E5%8E%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">坏的一面的还原</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#8090%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%B3%E9%AB%98%E5%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">8090的影音高峰</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E7%BE%8E%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E6%AD%8C%E8%AF%8D%E6%94%B6%E5%B0%BE"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用美好的歌词收尾</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">引用</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div 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diff --git "a/\345\260\217\345\212\250\347\211\251\345\205\273\346\210\220\346\250\241\345\274\217.html" "b/\345\260\217\345\212\250\347\211\251\345\205\273\346\210\220\346\250\241\345\274\217.html"
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@@ -356,7 +356,7 @@ <h2 id="找到自我禀赋与信仰，得舍">找到自我禀赋与信仰，得
 <p>在自己的禀赋下争取自己想要的，有了对生态结构和自我的解构准备，力争掌握更为复杂的工具或卡位优势分工环节(穷人之所以穷，是因为他是拿时间还钱，获得的是平均社会薪酬，<font color="dodgerblue">社会薪酬主要和行业阶段有关系</font>)，营造自己的生态位，分流剩余价值流动，收获自己活着的充实。</p>
 <p>在这场活着的游戏中，认知清楚后，仍然比拼的是坚持的力量（当下的社会组织者也是通过一套方法，一步一个脚印孤独又快乐的坚持走向自己的信仰之地）。哪怕你视角宏大与独特，像俯瞰蚂蚁搬家一样，也不要陷入虚无主义（空谈舍弃），人的生命有且只有一次，要挑战，不要磨灭。</p>
 <p>当你把城市建设的繁华喧闹，空虚也会随着繁华而来，此时幸福的本源在于你想得到什么，又能舍弃多少。<font color="blur"><u>但没有获取你就不知道该舍弃什么</u>（这也是为什么释迦摩尼能创佛教的原因，它的阶层与曾有的资源，普通的刺激根本诱惑不了他）</font>，成就与信仰都离不开舍弃。<strong>心无所求方得自由</strong>，<font color="dodgerblue"><u>无所求即为有所求</u></font>。</p>
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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%8D%E8%8A%B1%E5%AE%B6%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">种花家农场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E7%9B%97%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">海盗农场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">二者对照</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A8%E5%BB%B7%E9%A1%BF%E7%9A%84%E3%80%8A%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A7%A9%E5%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E5%BB%BA%E3%80%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">亨廷顿的《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农场解构</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%A9%E4%BD%99%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E6%B1%B2%E5%8F%96"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">剩余价值汲取</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E5%BD%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无形的手</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E7%9B%98%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%AE%96%E6%B0%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">地盘经济殖民</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%86%E8%A7%A3%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">了解环境与互动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%EF%BC%88%E6%9C%89%E5%95%A5%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">小动物的价值（有啥）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B9%81%E8%A1%8D%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">繁衍能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂工具</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B7%A5%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8E%E7%A8%80%E7%BC%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分工复杂度与稀缺</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A0%E5%9D%91%E7%A8%80%E7%BC%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">占坑稀缺性</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值总结</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%AA%E4%B8%8D%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%97%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举个不普通的栗子</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%BA%E4%B8%BB%E9%9D%A0%E5%95%A5%E6%A6%A8%E6%B2%B9%E5%B0%8F%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">农场主靠啥榨油小动物</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">土地</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E6%94%B6%E5%89%B2%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">周期收割劳动价值</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%98%B6%E7%BA%A7%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA%E9%87%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">资产阶级在哪里</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">延展：小动物的自由从何而来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E4%BD%A0%E6%89%80%E4%BE%9D%E5%AD%98%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">认识你所依存的世界的运作方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E7%9A%84%E9%98%B4%E9%98%B3%E4%B8%A4%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span 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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文明的冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%8D%E8%8A%B1%E5%AE%B6%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">种花家农场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%B7%E7%9B%97%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">海盗农场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E5%AF%B9%E7%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">二者对照</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A8%E5%BB%B7%E9%A1%BF%E7%9A%84%E3%80%8A%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%A7%A9%E5%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E5%BB%BA%E3%80%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">亨廷顿的《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">农场解构</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%A9%E4%BD%99%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E6%B1%B2%E5%8F%96"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">剩余价值汲取</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E5%BD%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无形的手</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E7%9B%98%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%AE%96%E6%B0%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">地盘经济殖民</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%86%E8%A7%A3%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%92%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">了解环境与互动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%EF%BC%88%E6%9C%89%E5%95%A5%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">小动物的价值（有啥）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B9%81%E8%A1%8D%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">繁衍能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂工具</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B7%A5%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8E%E7%A8%80%E7%BC%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">分工复杂度与稀缺</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A0%E5%9D%91%E7%A8%80%E7%BC%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">占坑稀缺性</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值总结</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E4%B8%AA%E4%B8%8D%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%97%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举个不普通的栗子</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%BA%E4%B8%BB%E9%9D%A0%E5%95%A5%E6%A6%A8%E6%B2%B9%E5%B0%8F%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">农场主靠啥榨油小动物</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">土地</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E6%94%B6%E5%89%B2%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">周期收割劳动价值</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%98%B6%E7%BA%A7%E5%9C%A8%E5%93%AA%E9%87%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">资产阶级在哪里</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">延展：小动物的自由从何而来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E4%BD%A0%E6%89%80%E4%BE%9D%E5%AD%98%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">认识你所依存的世界的运作方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E7%9A%84%E9%98%B4%E9%98%B3%E4%B8%A4%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生态生存的阴阳两面</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E7%A6%80%E8%B5%8B%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%A1%E4%BB%B0%EF%BC%8C%E5%BE%97%E8%88%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">找到自我禀赋与信仰，得舍</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time 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@@ -416,7 +416,7 @@ <h2 id="不错的解法">不错的解法</h2>
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class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产的滑落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%A4%E5%85%AC%E4%BA%A4%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">挤公交效应</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E8%8B%B1%E6%9C%89%E5%BA%A7%E5%9F%8E%E5%A0%A1%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E5%8F%AA%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%96%E5%9F%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">精英有座城堡，中产只是外城</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">错误的经验</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育的差别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E7%81%AD%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E6%9C%894%E4%B8%AA%E6%89%8B%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">消灭中产有4个手段</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产的欲望</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7%E5%92%8C%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%AD%A3%E7%A1%AE%E4%BD%9C%E4%B8%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内卷和内卷期的正确作为</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E8%A1%8C%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B%E5%85%8B%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下行期的欲望克制</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E6%94%B6%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">股市收割机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本的真相</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产子女如何突围？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B0%E5%BF%8C%E8%B5%9B%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">田忌赛马</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B4%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8A%E6%B5%81%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">更宏观的看阶层向上流动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E8%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">天赋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%8D%E5%8D%8E"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">才华</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%B2%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">美貌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A3%81%E5%9E%92%E5%8D%87%E9%AB%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">壁垒升高</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%A7%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">错觉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%B7%E7%88%B1%E5%87%8C%E7%BB%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">谷爱凌给大家的启示</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E9%87%8D%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">注重颜值</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭教育</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E5%A4%A9%E8%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">运动天赋</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">行业岗位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E4%BD%93%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%9F%E6%B6%AF%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">个体职业生涯阶段</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">小镇做题家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E7%9A%84%E5%B1%80%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">背景的局限</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E4%BC%B4%E7%94%9F%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力的关键伴生因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">环境塑造人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%B4%E7%82%B9%E6%89%8E%E5%BF%83%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">说点扎心话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%80%9F%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">借力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%82%E5%85%88%E7%A0%B4%E5%9C%88"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">要破层先破圈</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AF%E5%85%B3%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87"><span class="toc-number">3.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">闯关提升</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E9%80%9A%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">3.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小概率通道</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">成就自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li 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class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产的滑落</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%A4%E5%85%AC%E4%BA%A4%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">挤公交效应</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E8%8B%B1%E6%9C%89%E5%BA%A7%E5%9F%8E%E5%A0%A1%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E5%8F%AA%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%96%E5%9F%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">精英有座城堡，中产只是外城</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">错误的经验</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育的差别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B6%88%E7%81%AD%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E6%9C%894%E4%B8%AA%E6%89%8B%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">消灭中产有4个手段</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产的欲望</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7%E5%92%8C%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%AD%A3%E7%A1%AE%E4%BD%9C%E4%B8%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内卷和内卷期的正确作为</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E8%A1%8C%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B%E5%85%8B%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下行期的欲望克制</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E6%94%B6%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">股市收割机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本的真相</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产子女如何突围？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B0%E5%BF%8C%E8%B5%9B%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">田忌赛马</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B4%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8A%E6%B5%81%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">更宏观的看阶层向上流动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E8%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">天赋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%8D%E5%8D%8E"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">才华</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E8%B2%8C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">美貌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A3%81%E5%9E%92%E5%8D%87%E9%AB%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">壁垒升高</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%A7%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">错觉</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%B7%E7%88%B1%E5%87%8C%E7%BB%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%90%AF%E7%A4%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">谷爱凌给大家的启示</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E9%87%8D%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">注重颜值</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭教育</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E5%A4%A9%E8%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">运动天赋</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%B2%97%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">行业岗位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E4%BD%93%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%9F%E6%B6%AF%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">个体职业生涯阶段</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">小镇做题家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E7%9A%84%E5%B1%80%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">背景的局限</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E4%BC%B4%E7%94%9F%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力的关键伴生因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">环境塑造人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%B4%E7%82%B9%E6%89%8E%E5%BF%83%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">说点扎心话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%80%9F%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">借力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%82%E5%85%88%E7%A0%B4%E5%9C%88"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">要破层先破圈</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AF%E5%85%B3%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87"><span class="toc-number">3.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">闯关提升</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E9%80%9A%E9%81%93"><span class="toc-number">3.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小概率通道</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">成就自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li 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@@ -358,7 +358,7 @@ <h3 id="不抑兼并的历史根基">不抑兼并的历史根基</h3>
 <h2 id="政策性起义">政策性起义</h2>
 <p>朝廷的做法是招抚，给这些<strong>失去土地活不下去的农民招募到军营去当兵，有点文化又没土地的，则通过不断扩大王朝编制的方式为这帮人解决就业问题</strong>，你一看<font color="dodgerblue">闹事居然会闹成公务员，不想进编制的，朝廷会给你安置费，这样你就能活下去了，那这不蔚然成风</font>？</p>
 <p>政府不管这样乱局？毕竟朝廷的安置费也可以克扣，你懂的。有时候地方只是闹了屁大点的事，地方官就会添油加醋的报给朝廷，朝廷立马拨款，官员先吃一部分安置费，农民挣剩下的那部分，实现灵活就业，大家都有美好未来。到蒙古人南下，大宋生死存亡的时候，全国的政策性起义突然下降了，毕竟朝廷没功夫管了，大家折腾也没意义了。</p>
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class="toc-text">招安的必然性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%9B%E5%AE%89%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E5%AF%B9%E4%B8%8D%E5%AF%B9%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">招安到底对不对？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B%E6%B0%B4%E6%B5%92%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E7%BB%93%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看水浒的人员结局</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%A0%E5%8F%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%93%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">造反的结局</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%9B%E5%AE%89%E6%98%AF%E5%AE%9A%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">招安是定数</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人员结构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济条件</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%97%E7%AE%97%E8%B4%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">算算账</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%96%97%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">年龄与战斗力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E5%BF%83%E5%90%91%E8%83%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">民心向背</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E5%A4%B4%E9%A2%86%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%89%E6%82%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋头领的觉悟</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B0%91%E4%BC%97%E4%B8%8D%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何民众不理解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%8C%E6%89%98%E9%82%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%B4%E7%81%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">乌托邦的破灭</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家破人亡套餐卢员外</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%81%E5%A4%A9%E7%8E%8B%E5%9D%91%E8%B4%A7%E9%81%97%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">晁天王坑货遗言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E5%85%A5%E5%BC%BA%E5%8A%9B%E5%A4%96%E6%8F%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">引入强力外援</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87%E5%9B%B4%E7%BB%95%E6%8B%9B%E5%AE%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一切围绕招安</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%BA%E5%8C%85%E5%9B%B4%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%87%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">一人包围一万人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%92%E5%9F%8E%E8%A2%AB%E6%8D%95%E6%A2%81%E5%B1%B1%E6%95%91%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">归城被捕梁山救人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E6%A2%81%E5%B1%B1%E7%AB%8B%E5%A4%A7%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">上梁山立大功</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">梁山在哪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">施耐庵生平与笔力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E6%8F%8F%E5%86%99%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些地理描写错误</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%B4%E6%B5%92%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">水浒的优异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">残忍与血腥</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋公明的魅力从哪来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">一个较奇特的角色公孙胜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">电视剧与原著</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国与水浒的对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">蔚然成风的宋代农民起义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%B4%E7%A8%B3%E5%92%8C%E8%B0%90%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">维稳和谐社会</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%91%E5%85%BC%E5%B9%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E6%A0%B9%E5%9F%BA"><span class="toc-number">10.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不抑兼并的历史根基</span></a></li></ol></li><li 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fa-fw"></i> 2025-06-26</div><div class="title">人种迁徙与语言分布</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">招安的必然性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%9B%E5%AE%89%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E5%AF%B9%E4%B8%8D%E5%AF%B9%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">招安到底对不对？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B%E6%B0%B4%E6%B5%92%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E7%BB%93%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">看看水浒的人员结局</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%A0%E5%8F%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%93%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">造反的结局</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%9B%E5%AE%89%E6%98%AF%E5%AE%9A%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">招安是定数</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人员结构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济条件</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%97%E7%AE%97%E8%B4%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">算算账</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%96%97%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">年龄与战斗力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E5%BF%83%E5%90%91%E8%83%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">民心向背</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E5%A4%B4%E9%A2%86%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%89%E6%82%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋头领的觉悟</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B0%91%E4%BC%97%E4%B8%8D%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何民众不理解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%8C%E6%89%98%E9%82%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%B4%E7%81%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">乌托邦的破灭</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家破人亡套餐卢员外</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%81%E5%A4%A9%E7%8E%8B%E5%9D%91%E8%B4%A7%E9%81%97%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">晁天王坑货遗言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E5%85%A5%E5%BC%BA%E5%8A%9B%E5%A4%96%E6%8F%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">引入强力外援</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87%E5%9B%B4%E7%BB%95%E6%8B%9B%E5%AE%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一切围绕招安</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%BA%E5%8C%85%E5%9B%B4%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%87%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">一人包围一万人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%92%E5%9F%8E%E8%A2%AB%E6%8D%95%E6%A2%81%E5%B1%B1%E6%95%91%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">归城被捕梁山救人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E6%A2%81%E5%B1%B1%E7%AB%8B%E5%A4%A7%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">上梁山立大功</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">梁山在哪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">施耐庵生平与笔力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E6%8F%8F%E5%86%99%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些地理描写错误</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%B4%E6%B5%92%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">水浒的优异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">残忍与血腥</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋公明的魅力从哪来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">一个较奇特的角色公孙胜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">电视剧与原著</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">三国与水浒的对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">蔚然成风的宋代农民起义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%B4%E7%A8%B3%E5%92%8C%E8%B0%90%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">维稳和谐社会</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%91%E5%85%BC%E5%B9%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E6%A0%B9%E5%9F%BA"><span class="toc-number">10.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不抑兼并的历史根基</span></a></li></ol></li><li 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diff --git "a/\345\267\250\345\244\264\347\232\204\345\214\273\347\226\227\350\275\257\350\202\213.html" "b/\345\267\250\345\244\264\347\232\204\345\214\273\347\226\227\350\275\257\350\202\213.html"
index fe37ac0c3e..6ab7c48163 100644
--- "a/\345\267\250\345\244\264\347\232\204\345\214\273\347\226\227\350\275\257\350\202\213.html"
+++ "b/\345\267\250\345\244\264\347\232\204\345\214\273\347\226\227\350\275\257\350\202\213.html"
@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@ <h3 id="用户">用户</h3>
 <h1>结语</h1>
 <p>现在AI技术重新爆发上路，在诊病方面必会有长足进步，挑战在于高质量数据，希望早日攻下这块难啃的骨头，或许寄希望先从国外突破更现实点。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
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class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">投入产出</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E7%A2%B0%E5%A2%99"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">模式碰墙</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创业的文化冲突</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E5%86%B2%E6%92%9E"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">利益冲撞</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">需求侧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%EF%BC%8C%E4%BC%AA%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">云，伪需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9A%E5%88%B6%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">定制化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E8%B7%AF%E8%A7%92%E5%84%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">各路角儿</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E7%94%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三甲</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E8%90%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">民营</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%BB%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">医生</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.</span> <span 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class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">投入产出</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E7%A2%B0%E5%A2%99"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">模式碰墙</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创业的文化冲突</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E5%86%B2%E6%92%9E"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">利益冲撞</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">需求侧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%EF%BC%8C%E4%BC%AA%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">云，伪需求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9A%E5%88%B6%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">定制化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E8%B7%AF%E8%A7%92%E5%84%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">各路角儿</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E7%94%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三甲</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E8%90%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">民营</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%BB%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">医生</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.</span> <span 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@@ -257,7 +257,7 @@ <h4 id="情商">情商</h4>
 <p>老师不同于咨询师的一个地方是：老师用讲解模式，而咨询师用倾听模式</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>情感智力能让你在自我成长和完善的路上走得更远，因为它将带你从独立的个体走向共生的关系。共生性可以让你在社交和工作上与别人有效联结，协同合作。</p>
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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%BA%BA%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成人自我状态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E7%9A%84%E6%84%A4%E6%80%92"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂的愤怒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%87%8A%E6%94%BE%E6%84%A4%E6%80%92"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">儿童如何释放愤怒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E5%9D%90%E6%A0%87%E4%B8%8E%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生坐标与心理游戏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#PLOM"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span 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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%BA%BA%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成人自我状态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E7%9A%84%E6%84%A4%E6%80%92"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂的愤怒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E9%87%8A%E6%94%BE%E6%84%A4%E6%80%92"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">儿童如何释放愤怒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E5%9D%90%E6%A0%87%E4%B8%8E%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">人生坐标与心理游戏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#PLOM"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span 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@@ -719,7 +719,7 @@ <h2 id="技术背景">技术背景</h2>
 <p>尽管现代排版工具众多，$\TeX$ 仍然因其严谨性和可重复性，在学术论文等需精确排版的场景广泛使用。</p>
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href="#%E7%A9%BA%E6%A0%BC%E4%B8%8E%E6%8D%A2%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">空格与换行</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">字体</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">方程，公式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E7%BC%96%E5%8F%B7%E5%A4%9A%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无编号多公式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%E7%BB%84"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">方程组</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%97%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">矩阵行列式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%97%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">行列式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%8B%AC%E5%8F%B7%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小括号矩阵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%AB%E5%80%BC%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%86%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%8B%AC%E5%8F%B7%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">含值方框的方括号矩阵</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术背景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span 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href="#%E7%A9%BA%E6%A0%BC%E4%B8%8E%E6%8D%A2%E8%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">空格与换行</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%97%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">字体</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">方程，公式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E7%BC%96%E5%8F%B7%E5%A4%9A%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">无编号多公式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%E7%BB%84"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">方程组</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%97%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">矩阵行列式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%97%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">行列式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%8B%AC%E5%8F%B7%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小括号矩阵</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%AB%E5%80%BC%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%86%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%8B%AC%E5%8F%B7%E7%9F%A9%E9%98%B5"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">含值方框的方括号矩阵</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术背景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/\345\271\263\345\235\207\351\242\204\346\234\237\345\257\277\345\221\275.html" "b/\345\271\263\345\235\207\351\242\204\346\234\237\345\257\277\345\221\275.html"
index 9ae479605e..b3aae27a6a 100644
--- "a/\345\271\263\345\235\207\351\242\204\346\234\237\345\257\277\345\221\275.html"
+++ "b/\345\271\263\345\235\207\351\242\204\346\234\237\345\257\277\345\221\275.html"
@@ -246,7 +246,7 @@ <h2 id="生存年龄平均值-中位数">生存年龄平均值/中位数</h2>
 </ul>
 <p>谁也不知道谁被平均，珍惜当下。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5-2023-%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E8%A1%A8%E6%9D%A5%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以 2023 年中国人口生命表来解读</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC-%E4%B8%AD%E4%BD%8D%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">生存年龄平均值&#x2F;中位数</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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diff --git "a/\345\274\200\346\272\220\350\256\270\345\217\257\350\257\201.html" "b/\345\274\200\346\272\220\350\256\270\345\217\257\350\257\201.html"
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@@ -1300,7 +1300,7 @@ <h4 id="软性治理">软性治理</h4>
 </tbody>
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 <h2 id="引用">引用</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">runoob.com. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.runoob.com/w3cnote/open-source-license.html">各种开源协议介绍</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百度. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1718999502101060832">Linus全身每一个细胞都在拒绝GPLv3</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ifanr. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.ifanr.com/92261">Android ，在争议中逃离 Linux 内核的 GPL 约束</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">STGOD. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://stgod.com/3984/">各种开源协议介绍</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1449672">LGPL协议详解</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">oschina <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://my.oschina.net/pauli/blog/5266743">BSD开源协议对比</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">oschia <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://oschina.gitee.io/opensource-guide/guide/%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%EF%BC%9A%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E5%92%8C%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE/%E7%AC%AC%203%20%E5%B0%8F%E8%8A%82%EF%BC%9A%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81/#%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%98%AF%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81-license">开源指北大全</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:8"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">8.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">阮一峰 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.ruanyifeng.com/blog/2019/06/open-database-relicensing.html">为何开源数据库更改许可证</a><a href="#fnref:8" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:9"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">9.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">微月人话 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-JfuVWZRerI4uuYxlkKCAw">步进式解读Apache许可证</a><a href="#fnref:9" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:10"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">10.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ifengkou <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://github.com/ifengkou/license_faq">开源软件和开源许可证</a><a href="#fnref:10" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:11"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">11.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知产力 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.zhichanli.com/p/1579332268">开源，就真的可以随意使用吗？</a><a href="#fnref:11" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:12"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">12.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">软件学报 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.jos.org.cn/html/2022/1/6279.htm">开源许可证的选择: 挑战和影响因素</a><a href="#fnref:12" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:13"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">13.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">维基百科 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%8F%8A%E9%96%8B%E6%94%BE%E5%8E%9F%E5%A7%8B%E7%A2%BC%E8%BB%9F%E9%AB%94%E6%8E%88%E6%AC%8A%E6%A2%9D%E6%AC%BE%E6%AF%94%E8%BC%83">自由及开放源代码软件许可协议比较</a><a href="#fnref:13" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:14"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">14.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">维基百科 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/GNU%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81#%E7%9B%B8%E5%AE%B9%E6%80%A7">GNU通用公共许可证</a><a href="#fnref:14" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:15"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">15.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ZGEO博客 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.zgeo.work:8022/wordpress/guanyukaiyuanruanjianxukedejieshao/">关于开源软件许可的介绍</a><a href="#fnref:15" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:16"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">16.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">安全内参 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.secrss.com/articles/53559">西安银行开源软件治理体系的建设实践</a><a href="#fnref:16" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:17"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">17.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">OSCHINA <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://my.oschina.net/oscpyaqxylk/blog/5457229">FreeBSD大败局</a><a href="#fnref:17" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:18"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">18.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">新浪数码 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://tech.sina.com.cn/mobile/n/2012-11-23/10327825918.shtml">Linux创始人：Android问题多不在Google</a><a href="#fnref:18" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:19"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">19.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">OSCHINA <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.oschina.net/news/16569/linus-says-android-license-claim-is-bogus">Linus 称 Android 违反 GPL 授权说法不正确</a><a href="#fnref:19" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:20"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">20.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/lijie2664989/article/details/107826733">深入Android系统 Bionic库</a><a href="#fnref:20" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:21"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">21.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">gnu.org <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-faq.html">GNU 许可证常见问题</a><a href="#fnref:21" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:22"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">22.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">开源中国 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20220402A03DI100">GPL也没有那么可怕</a><a href="#fnref:22" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:23"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">23.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百度问问 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://wen.baidu.com/question/442983394899441684.html">nvidia闭源驱动为什么不被起诉</a><a href="#fnref:23" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:24"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">24.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1687597272328243243">android发展史</a><a href="#fnref:24" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:25"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">25.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">OSCHINA <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.oschina.net/news/16569/linus-says-android-license-claim-is-bogus">linus称Android违反GPL授权说法不正确</a><a href="#fnref:25" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:26"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">26.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">gnu.org <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-software-for-freedom.zh-cn.html">为什么“自由软件”好于“开源”</a><a href="#fnref:26" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:27"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">27.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">安全内参 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.secrss.com/articles/37265">2021 年软件供应链状况报告</a><a href="#fnref:27" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:28"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">28.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">synopsys <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.synopsys.com/content/dam/synopsys/china/software-integrity/reports/rep-ossra-2023-ch.pdf">2023开源安全和风险分析报告</a><a href="#fnref:28" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:29"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">29.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Sonatype <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sonatype.com/hubfs/9th-Annual-SSSC-Report.pdf">第9次软件供应链状态报告</a><a href="#fnref:29" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:30"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">30.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知乎 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/660569349">开源软件的安全与自主可控</a><a href="#fnref:30" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:31"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">31.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">csdn <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://img-blog.csdnimg.cn/20210830184153571.png">常见开源许可协议核心内容</a><a href="#fnref:31" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:32"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">32.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">IT分享知识网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://yundeesoft.com/28433.html">开源协议的权限解析</a><a href="#fnref:32" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:33"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">33.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">csdn <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/m0_61817986/article/details/120256920">开源协议思维导图</a><a href="#fnref:33" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:34"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">34.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/2294395">一图说明常见开源协议</a><a href="#fnref:34" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:35"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">35.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1449672">LGPL协议详解</a><a href="#fnref:35" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:36"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">36.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">GNU <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.gnu.org/licenses/lgpl-java.zh-cn.html">LGPL 和 Java</a><a href="#fnref:36" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:37"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">37.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/kaiyuanshe/article/details/128556692">人话解读 LGPLv3</a><a href="#fnref:37" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:38"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">38.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">InfoQ <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.infoq.cn/article/wxlsfiyvuuyxcct4uztq">MongDB 与 SSPL</a><a href="#fnref:38" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright__original" title="该文章为原创文章，注意版权协议" href="https://blog.diffday.com/%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81.html">原创</a><a 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开宗明义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源软件</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">误区</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%8A%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E6%94%BE%E7%BD%91%E4%B8%8A%E7%AE%97%E4%B8%8D%E7%AE%97%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">把代码放网上算不算开源软件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E4%BB%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">不指定任何开源许可证</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证大分类</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E6%80%A7%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E4%B8%BB%E5%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代表性开源协议的价值主张</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E4%BE%9B%E5%BA%94%E9%93%BE%E8%84%B1%E9%92%A9%E6%96%AD%E9%93%BE%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件供应链脱钩断链风险</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">正本清源</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E4%B8%AD%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E5%87%BA%E4%BA%86%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自由软件中分离出了开源概念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90-%E5%85%8D%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源 !&#x3D; 免费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E7%9A%84%E9%9D%9E%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源的非经济利益</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E6%B5%81%E6%B4%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E6%AF%94%E5%96%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源流派的理念比喻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8D%E7%94%9F%E4%BD%9C%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">衍生作品</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF%E8%A1%8D%E7%94%9F%E5%93%81%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何规避衍生品风险</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源许可证的市场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E7%BC%96%E7%A8%8B%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从编程语言看</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E5%8D%A0%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">市占率</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证简洁区别示意</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">详细区别和选择对照</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">典型开源许可证解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#BSD%E5%A4%9A%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">BSD多版本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BSD-vs-MIT"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">BSD vs MIT</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Apache"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Apache</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#MPL"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">MPL</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Creative-Commons-%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E5%85%B1%E4%BA%AB%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Creative Commons 知识共享协议</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#GPL%E6%97%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">GPL族</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#GPLv3-vs-GPLv2"><span class="toc-number">6.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">GPLv3 vs GPLv2</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">6.5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">理念的冲突</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#AGPL"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AGPL</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LGPL"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">LGPL</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E4%BB%8D%E9%9A%90%E5%90%AB%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%8B%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对商业应用仍隐含不友好</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#LGPL%E4%B8%8EJava"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">LGPL与Java</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8CGPL%E6%98%AF%E6%9B%B4%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">从大型产品角度看，GPL是更好的开源许可证？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">6.5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举操作系统领域的例子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%8B%E5%B8%88%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%80%E7%88%B1"><span class="toc-number">6.5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">律师的最爱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#SFC%EF%BC%88%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4%E5%8D%8F%E4%BC%9A%EF%BC%89%E9%9D%A0%E5%BC%BA%E5%88%B6%E6%89%A7%E8%A1%8CGPL%E4%B8%80%E6%88%98%E6%88%90%E5%90%8D"><span class="toc-number">6.5.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SFC（软件自由保护协会）靠强制执行GPL一战成名</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%BD%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%80%E5%9D%97%E7%A0%96%EF%BC%8C%E5%80%92%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%80%E5%A0%B5%E5%A2%99"><span class="toc-number">6.5.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">抽了一块砖，倒了一堵墙</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E5%8C%BA%E6%8A%B5%E5%88%B6%E7%96%AF%E5%AD%90-%E2%80%9C%E6%B2%BB%E6%84%88%E2%80%9D%E6%9D%A1%E6%AC%BE"><span class="toc-number">6.5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">社区抵制疯子&amp;“治愈”条款</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Linux%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%9B%A0%E4%B8%BA%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E7%96%AF%E5%AD%90%E5%AF%B9%E6%8A%97%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%B4%E9%87%87%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%86GPL%E6%98%AF%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%98%E8%AF%80"><span class="toc-number">6.5.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Linux成功正式因为我们没有疯子对抗，而不是说采用了GPL是唯一的秘诀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E6%84%88%E8%A1%A5%E4%B8%81"><span class="toc-number">6.5.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">治愈补丁</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Linux-%E5%86%85%E6%A0%B8%E7%9A%84-GPL-%E7%BA%A6%E6%9D%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">Linux 内核的 GPL 约束</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E9%97%AE%E8%87%AA%E7%AD%94"><span class="toc-number">6.5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自问自答</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9A%E7%95%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%A1%AE%E6%9C%89GPL%E6%81%90%E6%83%A7%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">6.5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">业界的确有GPL恐惧症</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Android-%E5%9C%A8GPL%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">Android 在GPL下的成功</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%A4%E7%9A%84Android"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上古的Android</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Android%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%8D%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8EFreeBSD%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Android为何不基于FreeBSD开发？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#ASOP%E7%9A%84%E9%80%83%E9%80%B8%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ASOP的逃逸设计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户空间的驱动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#HAL"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">HAL</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">公地悲剧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E6%81%B6%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源软件生态恶化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E6%8E%88%E6%9D%83%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证授权变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BSL-Business-Source-License-%E6%89%93%E4%B8%AA%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">BSL(Business Source License)打个样</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不是开源许可证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0%E5%8C%96%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">是参数化许可证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%86%E6%8B%A5%E8%B6%B8%E5%AF%A5%E5%AF%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">但拥趸寥寥</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">国产开源：木兰许可协议系列</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%A8%E5%85%B0%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%8F%96%E5%90%8D%E7%94%B1%E6%9D%A5%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">木兰许可证取名由来？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些杂问</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E5%A4%9A%E4%B8%AA%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能使用多个开源协议吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9-2"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证兼容</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%B8%A4%E4%B8%AA%E8%AF%81%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何理解两个证兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%9F%E5%A7%8B%E7%9A%844%E5%8F%A5BSD%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%92%8CGPL%E4%B8%8D%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何原始的4句BSD许可证和GPL不兼容？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#MIT%E5%92%8CGPL%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">MIT和GPL如何兼容</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E5%90%8E%E9%9D%A2%E8%83%BD%E4%BF%AE%E6%94%B9%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">我后面能修改许可证吗</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源对工程师的要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源使用的风险与治理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">供应链安全</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全生态</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E8%BF%87%E6%9C%9F%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">12.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源软件过期状态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A2%8E%E7%89%87%E5%8C%96%E5%8A%A0%E5%89%A7%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">12.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">碎片化加剧问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E7%9F%A5-%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">感知+治理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E5%92%8B%E5%8A%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">12.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证治理咋办？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">12.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">直接治理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E6%80%A7%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">12.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">软性治理</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">引用</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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+<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">runoob.com. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.runoob.com/w3cnote/open-source-license.html">各种开源协议介绍</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百度. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1718999502101060832">Linus全身每一个细胞都在拒绝GPLv3</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ifanr. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.ifanr.com/92261">Android ，在争议中逃离 Linux 内核的 GPL 约束</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">STGOD. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://stgod.com/3984/">各种开源协议介绍</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1449672">LGPL协议详解</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">oschina <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://my.oschina.net/pauli/blog/5266743">BSD开源协议对比</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">oschia <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://oschina.gitee.io/opensource-guide/guide/%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%EF%BC%9A%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E5%92%8C%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE/%E7%AC%AC%203%20%E5%B0%8F%E8%8A%82%EF%BC%9A%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81/#%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%98%AF%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81-license">开源指北大全</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:8"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">8.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">阮一峰 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.ruanyifeng.com/blog/2019/06/open-database-relicensing.html">为何开源数据库更改许可证</a><a href="#fnref:8" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:9"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">9.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">微月人话 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-JfuVWZRerI4uuYxlkKCAw">步进式解读Apache许可证</a><a href="#fnref:9" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:10"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">10.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ifengkou <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://github.com/ifengkou/license_faq">开源软件和开源许可证</a><a href="#fnref:10" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:11"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">11.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知产力 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.zhichanli.com/p/1579332268">开源，就真的可以随意使用吗？</a><a href="#fnref:11" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:12"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">12.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">软件学报 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.jos.org.cn/html/2022/1/6279.htm">开源许可证的选择: 挑战和影响因素</a><a href="#fnref:12" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:13"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">13.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">维基百科 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%8F%8A%E9%96%8B%E6%94%BE%E5%8E%9F%E5%A7%8B%E7%A2%BC%E8%BB%9F%E9%AB%94%E6%8E%88%E6%AC%8A%E6%A2%9D%E6%AC%BE%E6%AF%94%E8%BC%83">自由及开放源代码软件许可协议比较</a><a href="#fnref:13" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:14"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">14.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">维基百科 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/GNU%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81#%E7%9B%B8%E5%AE%B9%E6%80%A7">GNU通用公共许可证</a><a href="#fnref:14" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:15"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">15.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">ZGEO博客 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.zgeo.work:8022/wordpress/guanyukaiyuanruanjianxukedejieshao/">关于开源软件许可的介绍</a><a href="#fnref:15" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:16"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">16.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">安全内参 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.secrss.com/articles/53559">西安银行开源软件治理体系的建设实践</a><a href="#fnref:16" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:17"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">17.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">OSCHINA <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://my.oschina.net/oscpyaqxylk/blog/5457229">FreeBSD大败局</a><a href="#fnref:17" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:18"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">18.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">新浪数码 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://tech.sina.com.cn/mobile/n/2012-11-23/10327825918.shtml">Linux创始人：Android问题多不在Google</a><a href="#fnref:18" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:19"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">19.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">OSCHINA <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.oschina.net/news/16569/linus-says-android-license-claim-is-bogus">Linus 称 Android 违反 GPL 授权说法不正确</a><a href="#fnref:19" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:20"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">20.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/lijie2664989/article/details/107826733">深入Android系统 Bionic库</a><a href="#fnref:20" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:21"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">21.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">gnu.org <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-faq.html">GNU 许可证常见问题</a><a href="#fnref:21" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:22"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">22.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">开源中国 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20220402A03DI100">GPL也没有那么可怕</a><a href="#fnref:22" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:23"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">23.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百度问问 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://wen.baidu.com/question/442983394899441684.html">nvidia闭源驱动为什么不被起诉</a><a href="#fnref:23" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:24"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">24.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1687597272328243243">android发展史</a><a href="#fnref:24" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:25"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">25.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">OSCHINA <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.oschina.net/news/16569/linus-says-android-license-claim-is-bogus">linus称Android违反GPL授权说法不正确</a><a href="#fnref:25" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:26"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">26.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">gnu.org <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-software-for-freedom.zh-cn.html">为什么“自由软件”好于“开源”</a><a href="#fnref:26" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:27"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">27.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">安全内参 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.secrss.com/articles/37265">2021 年软件供应链状况报告</a><a href="#fnref:27" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:28"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">28.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">synopsys <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.synopsys.com/content/dam/synopsys/china/software-integrity/reports/rep-ossra-2023-ch.pdf">2023开源安全和风险分析报告</a><a href="#fnref:28" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:29"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">29.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Sonatype <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sonatype.com/hubfs/9th-Annual-SSSC-Report.pdf">第9次软件供应链状态报告</a><a href="#fnref:29" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:30"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">30.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知乎 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/660569349">开源软件的安全与自主可控</a><a href="#fnref:30" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:31"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">31.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">csdn <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://img-blog.csdnimg.cn/20210830184153571.png">常见开源许可协议核心内容</a><a href="#fnref:31" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:32"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">32.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">IT分享知识网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://yundeesoft.com/28433.html">开源协议的权限解析</a><a href="#fnref:32" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:33"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">33.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">csdn <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/m0_61817986/article/details/120256920">开源协议思维导图</a><a href="#fnref:33" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:34"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">34.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/2294395">一图说明常见开源协议</a><a href="#fnref:34" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:35"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">35.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1449672">LGPL协议详解</a><a href="#fnref:35" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:36"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">36.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">GNU <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.gnu.org/licenses/lgpl-java.zh-cn.html">LGPL 和 Java</a><a href="#fnref:36" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:37"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">37.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/kaiyuanshe/article/details/128556692">人话解读 LGPLv3</a><a href="#fnref:37" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:38"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">38.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">InfoQ <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.infoq.cn/article/wxlsfiyvuuyxcct4uztq">MongDB 与 SSPL</a><a href="#fnref:38" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright__original" title="该文章为原创文章，注意版权协议" href="https://blog.diffday.com/%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81.html">原创</a><a 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开宗明义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源软件</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">误区</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%8A%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E6%94%BE%E7%BD%91%E4%B8%8A%E7%AE%97%E4%B8%8D%E7%AE%97%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">把代码放网上算不算开源软件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E4%BB%BB%E4%BD%95%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">不指定任何开源许可证</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证大分类</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E6%80%A7%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E4%B8%BB%E5%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代表性开源协议的价值主张</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E4%BE%9B%E5%BA%94%E9%93%BE%E8%84%B1%E9%92%A9%E6%96%AD%E9%93%BE%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件供应链脱钩断链风险</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">正本清源</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E4%B8%AD%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB%E5%87%BA%E4%BA%86%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自由软件中分离出了开源概念</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90-%E5%85%8D%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源 !&#x3D; 免费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E7%9A%84%E9%9D%9E%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源的非经济利益</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E6%B5%81%E6%B4%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E6%AF%94%E5%96%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源流派的理念比喻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8D%E7%94%9F%E4%BD%9C%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">衍生作品</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF%E8%A1%8D%E7%94%9F%E5%93%81%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何规避衍生品风险</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源许可证的市场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E7%BC%96%E7%A8%8B%E8%AF%AD%E8%A8%80%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从编程语言看</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E5%8D%A0%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">市占率</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证简洁区别示意</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">详细区别和选择对照</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">典型开源许可证解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#BSD%E5%A4%9A%E7%89%88%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">BSD多版本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BSD-vs-MIT"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">BSD vs MIT</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Apache"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Apache</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#MPL"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">MPL</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Creative-Commons-%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E5%85%B1%E4%BA%AB%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Creative Commons 知识共享协议</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#GPL%E6%97%8F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">GPL族</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#GPLv3-vs-GPLv2"><span class="toc-number">6.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">GPLv3 vs GPLv2</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">6.5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">理念的冲突</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#AGPL"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AGPL</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LGPL"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">LGPL</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E4%BB%8D%E9%9A%90%E5%90%AB%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%8B%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">对商业应用仍隐含不友好</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#LGPL%E4%B8%8EJava"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">LGPL与Java</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%9E%8B%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8CGPL%E6%98%AF%E6%9B%B4%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">从大型产品角度看，GPL是更好的开源许可证？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BE%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">6.5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">举操作系统领域的例子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%8B%E5%B8%88%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%80%E7%88%B1"><span class="toc-number">6.5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">律师的最爱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#SFC%EF%BC%88%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4%E5%8D%8F%E4%BC%9A%EF%BC%89%E9%9D%A0%E5%BC%BA%E5%88%B6%E6%89%A7%E8%A1%8CGPL%E4%B8%80%E6%88%98%E6%88%90%E5%90%8D"><span class="toc-number">6.5.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SFC（软件自由保护协会）靠强制执行GPL一战成名</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%BD%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%80%E5%9D%97%E7%A0%96%EF%BC%8C%E5%80%92%E4%BA%86%E4%B8%80%E5%A0%B5%E5%A2%99"><span class="toc-number">6.5.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">抽了一块砖，倒了一堵墙</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E5%8C%BA%E6%8A%B5%E5%88%B6%E7%96%AF%E5%AD%90-%E2%80%9C%E6%B2%BB%E6%84%88%E2%80%9D%E6%9D%A1%E6%AC%BE"><span class="toc-number">6.5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">社区抵制疯子&amp;“治愈”条款</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Linux%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%9B%A0%E4%B8%BA%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E7%96%AF%E5%AD%90%E5%AF%B9%E6%8A%97%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%B4%E9%87%87%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%86GPL%E6%98%AF%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%98%E8%AF%80"><span class="toc-number">6.5.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Linux成功正式因为我们没有疯子对抗，而不是说采用了GPL是唯一的秘诀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E6%84%88%E8%A1%A5%E4%B8%81"><span class="toc-number">6.5.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">治愈补丁</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Linux-%E5%86%85%E6%A0%B8%E7%9A%84-GPL-%E7%BA%A6%E6%9D%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">Linux 内核的 GPL 约束</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E9%97%AE%E8%87%AA%E7%AD%94"><span class="toc-number">6.5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自问自答</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9A%E7%95%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%A1%AE%E6%9C%89GPL%E6%81%90%E6%83%A7%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">6.5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">业界的确有GPL恐惧症</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Android-%E5%9C%A8GPL%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">Android 在GPL下的成功</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%A4%E7%9A%84Android"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上古的Android</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Android%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%8D%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8EFreeBSD%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Android为何不基于FreeBSD开发？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#ASOP%E7%9A%84%E9%80%83%E9%80%B8%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ASOP的逃逸设计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户空间的驱动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#HAL"><span class="toc-number">6.5.8.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">HAL</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">公地悲剧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E6%81%B6%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源软件生态恶化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E6%8E%88%E6%9D%83%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证授权变化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BSL-Business-Source-License-%E6%89%93%E4%B8%AA%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">BSL(Business Source License)打个样</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不是开源许可证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0%E5%8C%96%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">是参数化许可证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%86%E6%8B%A5%E8%B6%B8%E5%AF%A5%E5%AF%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">但拥趸寥寥</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">国产开源：木兰许可协议系列</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%A8%E5%85%B0%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%8F%96%E5%90%8D%E7%94%B1%E6%9D%A5%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">木兰许可证取名由来？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些杂问</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E5%A4%9A%E4%B8%AA%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能使用多个开源协议吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9-2"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证兼容</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%B8%A4%E4%B8%AA%E8%AF%81%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何理解两个证兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%8E%9F%E5%A7%8B%E7%9A%844%E5%8F%A5BSD%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%92%8CGPL%E4%B8%8D%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何原始的4句BSD许可证和GPL不兼容？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#MIT%E5%92%8CGPL%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">9.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">MIT和GPL如何兼容</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E5%90%8E%E9%9D%A2%E8%83%BD%E4%BF%AE%E6%94%B9%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">我后面能修改许可证吗</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源对工程师的要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源使用的风险与治理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">供应链安全</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">安全生态</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E8%BF%87%E6%9C%9F%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">12.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开源软件过期状态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A2%8E%E7%89%87%E5%8C%96%E5%8A%A0%E5%89%A7%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">12.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">碎片化加剧问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E7%9F%A5-%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">感知+治理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%8F%AF%E8%AF%81%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E5%92%8B%E5%8A%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">12.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">许可证治理咋办？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">12.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">直接治理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E6%80%A7%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">12.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">软性治理</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%95%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">引用</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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index 7d7df53417..224bcb6268 100644
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@@ -495,7 +495,7 @@ <h1>结语</h1>
 <h1>参考</h1>
 <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.ifanr.com/1155523">微信八年：从 1.0 到 7.0 版本，一个通讯工具的进化史</a></p>
 <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.ifanr.com/1155523">从微信版本历史，学产品功能迭代和用户体验（下）</a></p>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产品直指人心最重要</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">1.0–熟人间的通讯工具</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V1-0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V1.0</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V1-2"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">V1.2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%B3%E6%89%93%E7%B1%B3%E8%81%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拳打米聊</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2.0–陌生人社交上场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V2-2"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V2.2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8C%E9%99%8C%E5%90%8C%E5%A4%A9%E7%99%BB%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">陌陌同天登场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V2-5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">V2.5</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">增长神话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E5%85%83%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动互联网元年</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">3.0–扫一扫连接物理世界，服务号伏笔内容生态</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V3-5"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V3.5</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V3-6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">V3.6</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">4.0–朋友圈转身社交平台</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V4-2"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V4.2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V4-3-V4-5"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">V4.3 &amp; V4.5</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E4%BC%97%E5%8F%B7%E7%9A%84%E7%AA%81%E7%A0%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">公众号的突破</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">5.0–开始成为移动互联网枢纽</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A2%E9%98%85%E5%8F%B7%E4%B8%8E%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%8F%B7"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">订阅号与服务号</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%AB%E4%B8%80%E6%89%AB%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">扫一扫升级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%94%AF%E4%BB%98"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">微信支付</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%95%E6%9C%BA%E5%A4%B1%E8%81%94"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宕机失联</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">6.0–钱的流通，微信红包</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V6-1-%E7%BA%A2%E5%8C%85%E9%99%8D%E4%B8%B4"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V6.1-红包降临</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E7%BA%A2%E5%8C%85%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">微信红包的历史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%BF%E9%87%8C%E9%9B%86%E4%BA%94%E7%A6%8F%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B1%E8%B4%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阿里集五福的失败</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">7.0–天下初定，小修小补</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">8.0–继续短视频攻伐</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E7%9C%8B%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数字化看产品</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产品直指人心最重要</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">1.0–熟人间的通讯工具</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V1-0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V1.0</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V1-2"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">V1.2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%B3%E6%89%93%E7%B1%B3%E8%81%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">拳打米聊</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2.0–陌生人社交上场</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V2-2"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V2.2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8C%E9%99%8C%E5%90%8C%E5%A4%A9%E7%99%BB%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">陌陌同天登场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V2-5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">V2.5</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">增长神话</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E5%85%83%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动互联网元年</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">3.0–扫一扫连接物理世界，服务号伏笔内容生态</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V3-5"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V3.5</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V3-6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">V3.6</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">4.0–朋友圈转身社交平台</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V4-2"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V4.2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V4-3-V4-5"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">V4.3 &amp; V4.5</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E4%BC%97%E5%8F%B7%E7%9A%84%E7%AA%81%E7%A0%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">公众号的突破</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">5.0–开始成为移动互联网枢纽</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A2%E9%98%85%E5%8F%B7%E4%B8%8E%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E5%8F%B7"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">订阅号与服务号</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%AB%E4%B8%80%E6%89%AB%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">扫一扫升级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%94%AF%E4%BB%98"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">微信支付</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%95%E6%9C%BA%E5%A4%B1%E8%81%94"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宕机失联</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">6.0–钱的流通，微信红包</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#V6-1-%E7%BA%A2%E5%8C%85%E9%99%8D%E4%B8%B4"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">V6.1-红包降临</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E7%BA%A2%E5%8C%85%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">微信红包的历史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%BF%E9%87%8C%E9%9B%86%E4%BA%94%E7%A6%8F%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B1%E8%B4%A5"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阿里集五福的失败</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">7.0–天下初定，小修小补</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">8.0–继续短视频攻伐</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E7%9C%8B%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数字化看产品</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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index ebd9a45238..62ded4810b 100644
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@@ -395,7 +395,7 @@ <h3 id="出生人口">出生人口</h3>
 <p>有人诟病统计局常规是抽样调查，所以不准，但现在的年代，合并职能后用住院分娩数就已经差不多。</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>2020年完成户口登记的新生儿数量较2019年少了175.5万</p>
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style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E9%87%8D%E5%8F%A0%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">二者重叠吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A9%E6%9C%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">早期产品模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户心理需求不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">微博微信内容分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%BA%E4%BC%A0%E6%92%AD%E8%80%85%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">强传播者的差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内容形式区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%B1%E5%AF%BC%E8%BD%AC%E5%8F%91%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">诱导转发区别</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B9%E5%9B%A0%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">根因分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E5%B9%B2%E9%A2%84%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">微博的内容排序干预工具</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A2020%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">微博2020用户发展报告</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E6%8C%96%E6%8E%98"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内容特征挖掘</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A5%E4%B8%8B%E6%9D%A5%E8%BF%9B%E5%85%A5%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%85%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%AF%94%E6%8B%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">接下来进入代际特征大比拼</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%9D%E9%A2%98%E6%80%BB%E6%A6%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">话题总榜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%BB%E5%8A%A8%E6%97%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">活动时段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B5%E8%A7%86%E5%89%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">电视剧</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%BC%E8%89%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">综艺</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E9%A3%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">美食</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%A5%E8%BA%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">健身</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%BC%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">动漫</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%81%E6%89%8B%E4%B9%8B%E7%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">剁手之王</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%87%E7%89%A9%E5%BC%80%E7%AE%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.3.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">万物开箱</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%84%E5%BD%95-%E4%B8%83%E6%99%AE%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">附录-七普部分人口数据分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E9%BE%84%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">老龄化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%97%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">受教育程度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E9%87%8D%E5%8F%A0%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">二者重叠吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A9%E6%9C%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">早期产品模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户心理需求不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">微博微信内容分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%BA%E4%BC%A0%E6%92%AD%E8%80%85%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">强传播者的差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内容形式区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%B1%E5%AF%BC%E8%BD%AC%E5%8F%91%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">诱导转发区别</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B9%E5%9B%A0%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">根因分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E5%B9%B2%E9%A2%84%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">微博的内容排序干预工具</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E5%8D%9A2020%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">微博2020用户发展报告</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E6%8C%96%E6%8E%98"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内容特征挖掘</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A5%E4%B8%8B%E6%9D%A5%E8%BF%9B%E5%85%A5%E4%BB%A3%E9%99%85%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%AF%94%E6%8B%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">接下来进入代际特征大比拼</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%9D%E9%A2%98%E6%80%BB%E6%A6%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">话题总榜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%BB%E5%8A%A8%E6%97%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">活动时段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B5%E8%A7%86%E5%89%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">电视剧</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%BC%E8%89%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">综艺</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E9%A3%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">美食</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%A5%E8%BA%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">健身</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%BC%AB"><span class="toc-number">3.3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">动漫</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%81%E6%89%8B%E4%B9%8B%E7%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">剁手之王</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%87%E7%89%A9%E5%BC%80%E7%AE%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.3.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">万物开箱</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%84%E5%BD%95-%E4%B8%83%E6%99%AE%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">附录-七普部分人口数据分析</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E9%BE%84%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">老龄化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%97%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">受教育程度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%8E%E9%95%87%E5%8C%96%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">城镇化率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%BA%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">出生人口</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" 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diff --git "a/\345\277\203\345\212\233\345\217\221\345\261\225\344\270\216\347\273\204\347\273\207\345\241\221\351\200\240.html" "b/\345\277\203\345\212\233\345\217\221\345\261\225\344\270\216\347\273\204\347\273\207\345\241\221\351\200\240.html"
index f822059cd3..ea1fc244f3 100644
--- "a/\345\277\203\345\212\233\345\217\221\345\261\225\344\270\216\347\273\204\347\273\207\345\241\221\351\200\240.html"
+++ "b/\345\277\203\345\212\233\345\217\221\345\261\225\344\270\216\347\273\204\347\273\207\345\241\221\351\200\240.html"
@@ -262,7 +262,7 @@ <h2 id="计划设定-让事情发生的能力">计划设定-让事情发生的
 <li>沟通设计，利益相关者，高层抑或是底层员工，用不同的方式讲清楚你要干什么，给他们塑造意义</li>
 </ol>
 <p>在一个专业公司做成一个事情，能把项目或组织目标按上面的维度分解，是简洁清晰的，故收录记下</p>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E8%80%85%E5%BF%83%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%94%E4%B8%AA%E9%98%B6%E6%A2%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">领导者心力发展的五个阶梯</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E5%B7%B1%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%9B-%E5%8B%87%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用己之力-勇气</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E6%99%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之智</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之愿</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%83%E5%8A%9B%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">心力修炼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%8E%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">员工动力系统与组织塑造</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%8B%E5%91%BC%E5%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E6%A7%BD%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">与之呼应的员工槽点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E8%83%BD%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">最能激励员工的因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%82%A9%E5%B9%B6%E8%82%A9%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">肩并肩，不要面对面</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Z%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3%E7%A1%AE%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Z世代确有不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E8%AE%BE%E5%AE%9A-%E8%AE%A9%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%E5%8F%91%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E8%80%85%E5%BF%83%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%94%E4%B8%AA%E9%98%B6%E6%A2%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">领导者心力发展的五个阶梯</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E5%B7%B1%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%9B-%E5%8B%87%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用己之力-勇气</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E6%99%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之智</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%8B%E6%84%BF"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人之愿</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%83%E5%8A%9B%E4%BF%AE%E7%82%BC"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">心力修炼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%8E%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">员工动力系统与组织塑造</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%8B%E5%91%BC%E5%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E6%A7%BD%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">与之呼应的员工槽点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E8%83%BD%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">最能激励员工的因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%82%A9%E5%B9%B6%E8%82%A9%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">肩并肩，不要面对面</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Z%E4%B8%96%E4%BB%A3%E7%A1%AE%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Z世代确有不同</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E8%AE%BE%E5%AE%9A-%E8%AE%A9%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%E5%8F%91%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span 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@@ -300,7 +300,7 @@ <h4 id="亲密关系的人生作用">亲密关系的人生作用</h4>
 </ul>
 <p>但普通人成为特蕾莎修女或成为企业家都很难，婚姻生子是最容易解决这些问题的方法，亲密关系是一个很好的自我成长过程，这个叫做镜中我，亲密关系中的冲突解决帮助我们改进我们自己，养育孩子不是单向的给予，是生命与生命的相互淬炼。看似被消耗的光阴，实际上我们以最隐秘的方式参与着宇宙的自我认知，人类对存在的追问在新的瞳孔中获得新生。单身也很好，但如果你想更丰富的体验，此为一个普通人最容易参与的方案。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">网易 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.163.com/dy/article/JBR62PG005561N35.html">舔狗经济崩盘”，底层其实是婚姻制度崩盘</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">观察者网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.guancha.cn/politics/2024_01_10_721893.shtml">晚婚市镇乡差异</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont 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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%82%A6%E5%B7%B1%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">悦己觉醒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E9%A6%96%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">回首历史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AC%E4%BD%8E%E4%B8%8E%E6%8D%A7%E6%9D%80"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">贬低与捧杀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%AA%E4%BD%93%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E5%B4%9B%E8%B5%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">观念转型与个体价值崛起</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚姻自由</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%94%9F%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">新生代的压力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚恋市场金钱化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E5%A4%B1%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结构性失衡</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E6%95%A3%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">发散一下</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A1%E6%AD%BB%E6%80%A7%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">卡死性资源</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E7%89%A9%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">女性的自我物化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E4%B8%8EED"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">性操控与ED</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚姻的意义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E6%AF%8D%E5%BE%97%E4%BB%A5%E5%96%98%E6%81%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母得以喘息</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E8%82%B2%E7%9A%84%E7%A5%9E%E7%BB%8F%E9%80%92%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">养育的神经递质</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%B2%E5%AF%86%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">亲密关系的人生作用</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span 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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%82%A6%E5%B7%B1%E8%A7%89%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">悦己觉醒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E9%A6%96%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">回首历史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AC%E4%BD%8E%E4%B8%8E%E6%8D%A7%E6%9D%80"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">贬低与捧杀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%AA%E4%BD%93%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E5%B4%9B%E8%B5%B7"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">观念转型与个体价值崛起</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚姻自由</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%94%9F%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">新生代的压力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚恋市场金钱化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E5%A4%B1%E8%A1%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结构性失衡</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E6%95%A3%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">发散一下</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A1%E6%AD%BB%E6%80%A7%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">卡死性资源</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E7%89%A9%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">女性的自我物化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E4%B8%8EED"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">性操控与ED</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚姻的意义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E6%AF%8D%E5%BE%97%E4%BB%A5%E5%96%98%E6%81%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母得以喘息</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E8%82%B2%E7%9A%84%E7%A5%9E%E7%BB%8F%E9%80%92%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">养育的神经递质</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%B2%E5%AF%86%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">亲密关系的人生作用</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span 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class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Self_Talk 实际日常中的理论体现</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E5%8C%96%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%A3%B3%E5%84%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软化自己的壳儿</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%9B%E7%A7%8D%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">与世界的四种认知关系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/\346\210\221\344\273\254\345\210\260\345\272\225\347\237\245\351\201\223\345\244\232\345\260\221\344\271\213\346\204\217\345\277\265\347\232\204\345\212\233\351\207\217.html" "b/\346\210\221\344\273\254\345\210\260\345\272\225\347\237\245\351\201\223\345\244\232\345\260\221\344\271\213\346\204\217\345\277\265\347\232\204\345\212\233\351\207\217.html"
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+++ "b/\346\210\221\344\273\254\345\210\260\345\272\225\347\237\245\351\201\223\345\244\232\345\260\221\344\271\213\346\204\217\345\277\265\347\232\204\345\212\233\351\207\217.html"
@@ -206,7 +206,7 @@
 <p>以上的一段，来自于大概7年前（2007），当在观看纪录片&lt;我们到底知道多少时&gt;受触动改述的一段来自水分子的思维实验。曾几何时，还想用在找工作的英文自我介绍时，当时写了个不完整版。今天我看到那份缺少词汇不太连贯的草稿时，索性就把它完成了。草稿也可以扔掉了，再也没有保存的意义。</p>
 <p>思维的力量，在毕业时刻左右，曾是自己的信念基石之一，用以自我说服，非邪恶的信念，对于个体的生活坚挺是非常有意义的</p>
 <p>就算是现在写完的这段，随着英语的生疏，不免有语法错误，句病，也不太所谓了。看到草稿时，还惊奇7年前的自己还用了一些复杂的衔接连贯与介词短语+进行时的语法，呵呵，让我再来一遍，恐怕都不敢耍了吧，：）</p>
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 <p>不觉得留有遗憾是一种缺憾美，相比之下，干砸了倒是一种美。<font color="dodgerblue">每个人喜欢的事情，肯定不止一两件，只是有些做的不够好，有些做得很失败</font>。和朋友聊天时，你可以直接说，这事我特喜欢，也干过，但我真的不合适，丢人了。</p>
 <p><font color="blur">完全可以嗤鼻于说要是我去干这事一定比某某好的人</font>，在台面上<u>见过我成功一次，那么在台面下我就干砸过十次</u>。</p>
 <p>当你决定喜欢干，那么就信奉下一句：干砸不可怕，又没死，不停的干就行了，因为人们只会记住你成功的那一次。</p>
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diff --git "a/\346\211\222\345\256\266\345\272\225\347\234\213\345\217\221\345\261\225.html" "b/\346\211\222\345\256\266\345\272\225\347\234\213\345\217\221\345\261\225.html"
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@@ -355,7 +355,7 @@ <h2 id="近代名人联姻">近代名人联姻</h2>
 <h1>结语</h1>
 <p>三代人培养一代人，很多时候是需要从爷奶辈就要有一个很好的表率。不抱怨，向上道路必然艰辛，向下的大门却永远敞开。</p>
 <p>走近关系不只是靠送礼，有很多种方式，比如学会他人的爱好跟他交朋友，或者是在某一方面有独到的见解能聊得来，或者是平时经常一起吃饭去玩，细心待人。有些学问不是让你一步登天的，而是让你慢慢改变自己的命运的。在中国社会，没有关系，或者你跟别人的关系处不好，你就绝对不可能成功。这个关系，可以是你的家庭带给你的，可以是你的对象家庭带给你的，<font color="dodgerblue">也可以是你自己努力，让别人觉得有交换价值或者投资价值攀上的关系</font>。</p>
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href="#%E7%8E%8B%E7%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">王石</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9F%B3%E4%BC%A0%E5%BF%97"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">柳传志</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E6%AD%A3%E9%9D%9E"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">任正非</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%81%A5%E6%9E%97"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">王健林</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E5%8C%96%E8%85%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">马化腾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济背景</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E5%BE%B7%E6%97%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹德旺</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%85%89%E8%A3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄光裕</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">王兴</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%B7%A8%E7%95%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化跨界</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">马云</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">一般精英</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%8A%A1%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">公务员</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%81%E7%A3%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">丁磊</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E6%9C%9D%E9%98%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">张朝阳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%8B%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">程维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E4%B8%80%E9%B8%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">张一鸣</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E9%B8%BF%E7%A5%8E"><span class="toc-number">2.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">周鸿祎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">2.1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">李国庆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B2%E7%8E%89%E6%9F%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">史玉柱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%AF%E4%BB%91"><span class="toc-number">2.1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">冯仑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">教师</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AE%B5%E6%B0%B8%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">段永平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%B7%E5%86%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">雷军</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%BF%97%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">王志东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E6%B4%AA%E6%B3%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">方洪波</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%B7%A8%E7%95%8C-2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化跨界</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">李想</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小资本家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%98%E5%BC%BA%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">刘强东</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E9%93%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄铮</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E5%BD%A6%E5%AE%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">李彦宏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%BA%A6%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E8%AF%95%E9%94%99%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">百度成为行业试错员</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%91%A3%E6%98%8E%E7%8F%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">董明珠</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E7%A3%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">张磊</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E6%B0%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">农民</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9E%E6%95%8F%E6%B4%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">俞敏洪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E4%BC%A0%E7%A6%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">王传福</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%AE%B6%E5%8D%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">许家印</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E5%B0%8F%E9%BE%99"><span class="toc-number">3.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">张小龙</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">历史名人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E9%97%B4%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E9%9D%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">民间传说的不可靠</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B2%B3%E9%A3%9E"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">岳飞</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">包拯</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E8%81%94%E5%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">近代名人联姻</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" 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href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上层精英</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%BF%E7%95%8C-%E5%9B%BD%E4%BC%81%E9%A2%86%E5%AF%BC%E5%B9%B2%E9%83%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">政界&amp;国企领导干部</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E7%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">王石</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9F%B3%E4%BC%A0%E5%BF%97"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">柳传志</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E6%AD%A3%E9%9D%9E"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">任正非</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%81%A5%E6%9E%97"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">王健林</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E5%8C%96%E8%85%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">马化腾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济背景</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E5%BE%B7%E6%97%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹德旺</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E5%85%89%E8%A3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄光裕</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">王兴</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%B7%A8%E7%95%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化跨界</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">马云</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">一般精英</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%8A%A1%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">公务员</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%81%E7%A3%8A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">丁磊</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E6%9C%9D%E9%98%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">张朝阳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%8B%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">程维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E4%B8%80%E9%B8%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">张一鸣</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E9%B8%BF%E7%A5%8E"><span class="toc-number">2.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">周鸿祎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%BA%86"><span class="toc-number">2.1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">李国庆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B2%E7%8E%89%E6%9F%B1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">史玉柱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%AF%E4%BB%91"><span class="toc-number">2.1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">冯仑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">教师</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AE%B5%E6%B0%B8%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">段永平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%B7%E5%86%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">雷军</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%BF%97%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">王志东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E6%B4%AA%E6%B3%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">方洪波</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%B7%A8%E7%95%8C-2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化跨界</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">李想</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">小资本家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%98%E5%BC%BA%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">刘强东</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%84%E9%93%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黄铮</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E5%BD%A6%E5%AE%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">李彦宏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%BA%A6%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E8%AF%95%E9%94%99%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">百度成为行业试错员</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%91%A3%E6%98%8E%E7%8F%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">董明珠</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E7%A3%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">张磊</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E6%B0%91"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">农民</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9E%E6%95%8F%E6%B4%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">俞敏洪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E4%BC%A0%E7%A6%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">王传福</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B8%E5%AE%B6%E5%8D%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">许家印</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%A0%E5%B0%8F%E9%BE%99"><span class="toc-number">3.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">张小龙</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">历史名人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E9%97%B4%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E9%9D%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">民间传说的不可靠</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B2%B3%E9%A3%9E"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">岳飞</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">包拯</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E8%81%94%E5%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">近代名人联姻</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div 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diff --git "a/\346\212\275\350\261\241\346\263\260\345\233\275.html" "b/\346\212\275\350\261\241\346\263\260\345\233\275.html"
index 77f9b71d61..5ff2de204f 100644
--- "a/\346\212\275\350\261\241\346\263\260\345\233\275.html"
+++ "b/\346\212\275\350\261\241\346\263\260\345\233\275.html"
@@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ <h3 id="近代历史">近代历史</h3>
 <p>后来的军政府就选择与国王合作，由国王赋予自己统治的合理性。说以前的动乱都是生搬硬套别国的制度导致的，不顾泰国的实际情况，应放弃国会权威，重新树立起神王的权威。简单来说，就是把国王打造成集王权，神权，民权为一体的至高神，然后自己作为神的臣子来治理国家，这个模式就一直延续了下来。</p>
 <p><strong>泰王和军方实际是彼此帮扶相互利用的关系，军方通过泰王敛财贪腐，泰王利用军方罢黜反对派和铲异己</strong>。一旦民选政府施政失当，军方就政变，收取民心，拉拢各方利益。全国大说数大中型企业，外资企业，石油电力通讯等国计民生行业，特许经营行业都充斥着王室背景。<u>军方高级将领几乎各个都是大地主</u>，身处财富圈的高端；几百万有产阶级，形成了财富圈的中间部分。</p>
 <p>只要民选政府要割这些权贵的肉，富裕阶层必然反击，对政府命令阳奉阴违，难得到有效落实，这时就动员<font color="blur">平民阶层红衫军</font>上街诉求，<font color="goldenrod">代表有产阶级和王室军方利益的黄衫军</font>也会及时出马抗争，于是，王室授意的军方政变就会发生，民选政府被推翻，政治重新洗牌。泰国可以实行短期军管，但不能长久，对立严重搞不好会把泰国引入内战，到时候军方和王室的命运就会很微妙。所以军方政变后都会承诺一定期限内回到民主体制，循环往复。</p>
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diff --git "a/\346\213\245\346\212\261\344\270\226\347\225\214\345\226\204\345\276\205\350\207\252\345\267\261.html" "b/\346\213\245\346\212\261\344\270\226\347\225\214\345\226\204\345\276\205\350\207\252\345\267\261.html"
index 55e43de211..2db1652e0b 100644
--- "a/\346\213\245\346\212\261\344\270\226\347\225\214\345\226\204\345\276\205\350\207\252\345\267\261.html"
+++ "b/\346\213\245\346\212\261\344\270\226\347\225\214\345\226\204\345\276\205\350\207\252\345\267\261.html"
@@ -309,7 +309,7 @@ <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>没有完美的人生剧本，所有的选择都有代价，关键是承担选择的勇气。承认脆弱反而是强大的开始，正如树木会在受伤处生出最坚硬的结，人生是体验而非任务，要允许自己『过得不好』，我们不是来『赢』的，活出自己才是正确之道。</p>
 <p>幸福不是来自生命的过程，而是来自你对生活所持的态度。取决于自己对现在客观环境的理解，享受自己的当下，而不是去追求别人想象出来的幸福。</p>
 <p>当你看过世界，见过众生，才发现你要见的世面，是自己内心的勇敢和自信！</p>
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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Believe-yourself-Find-a-different-self"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Believe yourself, Find a different self</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%96%84%E5%BE%85%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">善待你的时间</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B0%E8%BF%90%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%83%E4%B8%AA%E5%BE%81%E5%85%86"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">走运前的七个征兆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E6%88%92%E6%8E%89%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会戒掉情绪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4%E9%80%81%E7%A4%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会社交送礼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E4%BA%86%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会了开始自律</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E4%BA%86%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会了反思自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E4%BB%96%E4%B9%8B%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">开始有利他之心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E4%BA%86%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%BD%AC%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会了思维方式的转变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E5%AF%B9%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E6%9C%89%E4%BA%86%E5%BC%BA%E7%83%88%E7%9A%84%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">开始对金钱有了强烈的欲望</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会戒掉情绪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E7%A4%BE%E4%BA%A4%E9%80%81%E7%A4%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会社交送礼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E4%BA%86%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会了开始自律</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E4%BA%86%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会了反思自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E4%BB%96%E4%B9%8B%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">开始有利他之心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A%E4%BA%86%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%BD%AC%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">学会了思维方式的转变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E5%AF%B9%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E6%9C%89%E4%BA%86%E5%BC%BA%E7%83%88%E7%9A%84%E6%AC%B2%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">开始对金钱有了强烈的欲望</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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diff --git "a/\346\215\242\344\270\252\350\247\206\350\247\222\347\220\206\350\247\243\344\272\272\347\224\237-\345\215\201\346\227\245\350\260\210.html" "b/\346\215\242\344\270\252\350\247\206\350\247\222\347\220\206\350\247\243\344\272\272\347\224\237-\345\215\201\346\227\245\350\260\210.html"
index 8bf1f022a8..e4aefb23c3 100644
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+++ "b/\346\215\242\344\270\252\350\247\206\350\247\222\347\220\206\350\247\243\344\272\272\347\224\237-\345\215\201\346\227\245\350\260\210.html"
@@ -231,7 +231,7 @@ <h2 id="回望文艺复兴与十日谈">回望文艺复兴与十日谈</h2>
 <li>劳动力一下少了好多，荒地处处，幸存者变得非常值钱，城里的雇主为了吸引劳工都在涨工资，逐渐形成城市中产阶级，因为缺少劳动力，欧洲开始寻求通过机械替代人力，促使了欧洲的工业革命。</li>
 </ol>
 <p>《十日谈》和《神曲》分别从民间的、世俗的故事和神的、精神的故事开始文学从中世纪到新世纪的转折。在中世纪，文学体裁远没有现在这么丰富，只有宗教文学、诗歌和宫廷文学。凡人的故事是难登大雅之堂的，《十日谈》之后，欧洲出现了大量的讲述人间故事的短篇小说。这些短篇小说后来又成了一些著名戏剧的创作原本。比如莎士比亚的很多戏剧的情节就来源于那些短篇小说。好的经典文学在历史上同样是功德无量。</p>
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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF2"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">应用场景2</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B%E6%96%87%E8%89%BA%E5%A4%8D%E5%85%B4%E4%B8%8E%E5%8D%81%E6%97%A5%E8%B0%88"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">回望文艺复兴与十日谈</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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diff --git "a/\346\216\245\347\272\263\344\270\215\345\256\214\347\276\216\347\232\204\350\207\252\345\267\261\344\271\246\346\221\230.html" "b/\346\216\245\347\272\263\344\270\215\345\256\214\347\276\216\347\232\204\350\207\252\345\267\261\344\271\246\346\221\230.html"
index 69b0622534..4b6f348caf 100644
--- "a/\346\216\245\347\272\263\344\270\215\345\256\214\347\276\216\347\232\204\350\207\252\345\267\261\344\271\246\346\221\230.html"
+++ "b/\346\216\245\347\272\263\344\270\215\345\256\214\347\276\216\347\232\204\350\207\252\345\267\261\344\271\246\346\221\230.html"
@@ -278,7 +278,7 @@ <h2 id="后记：活在别人眼中是对自己的不尊重">后记：活在别
 <p>不与井蛙语海，不与凡夫言道。活在别人眼里是一件很可悲的事情，做好自己的事，走好自己的路。虽有时也要照顾别人的感受，但那不是为了寻求认可和存在感，而是尊重对方而已。</p>
 <h2 id="无惧无悔">无惧无悔</h2>
 <p><font color="dodgerblue">情绪稳定的本质是无惧无悔</font>：无惧是允许一切发生；无悔是不假设自己未选择的路，不自怜自艾。活在当下，由心而生。</p>
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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主旨: 做一个好人，还是做一个完整的人？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">认识自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BF%E8%AE%A4%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E6%89%8D%E8%83%BD%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">承认自己才能改变自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E6%8C%89%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">做计划按目标改变自己</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">任何人的性格都是一体两面的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语：认可自己，允许一切发生</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0%EF%BC%9A%E6%B4%BB%E5%9C%A8%E5%88%AB%E4%BA%BA%E7%9C%BC%E4%B8%AD%E6%98%AF%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记：活在别人眼中是对自己的不尊重</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E6%83%A7%E6%97%A0%E6%82%94"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">无惧无悔</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主旨: 做一个好人，还是做一个完整的人？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A4%E8%AF%86%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">认识自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BF%E8%AE%A4%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E6%89%8D%E8%83%BD%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">承认自己才能改变自己</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E6%8C%89%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">做计划按目标改变自己</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">任何人的性格都是一体两面的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语：认可自己，允许一切发生</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0%EF%BC%9A%E6%B4%BB%E5%9C%A8%E5%88%AB%E4%BA%BA%E7%9C%BC%E4%B8%AD%E6%98%AF%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记：活在别人眼中是对自己的不尊重</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A0%E6%83%A7%E6%97%A0%E6%82%94"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">无惧无悔</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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diff --git "a/\346\217\220\346\241\266\350\267\221\350\267\257Civil-Engineering.html" "b/\346\217\220\346\241\266\350\267\221\350\267\257Civil-Engineering.html"
index dce50faab3..59c7f2fd54 100644
--- "a/\346\217\220\346\241\266\350\267\221\350\267\257Civil-Engineering.html"
+++ "b/\346\217\220\346\241\266\350\267\221\350\267\257Civil-Engineering.html"
@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ <h2 id="总结">总结</h2>
 <p>土木人自称牛马，虽是调侃，真的有现实写照，中国速度，基建狂魔，基础是大量在工地工作的人，内卷成这样严重已经影响行业的发展。比海员还惨，海员能积累休假歇一段时间，也是土木人期待的改变。</p>
 <p>还有希望吗，行业是不会消失的，年轻人都不来干工地，这一行才有希望。</p>
 <p>为什么写下这么一篇文章，<u>有同窗本科土木改靠英语研究生改行，现在大团队也有南京大学学土木跑去外国读研计算机，面试中也碰到过土木自行改行做码农的</u>，小时候听及长辈言传土木工程好，这种观点冲撞通过这篇形象的小文予以回应解读。</p>
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href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E9%87%8F%E5%A4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作量大价平</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E5%AE%B5%E6%89%93%E7%81%B0%E5%8F%8D%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通宵打灰反人类</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BC%E5%9E%AE%E5%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">颜值垮塌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A4%E7%97%85%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%AF%E5%8A%B3%E6%88%90%E7%96%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">伤病风险与积劳成疾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%BD%E8%AF%AF%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">耽误婚恋</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%95%99%E4%BA%BA%E9%9A%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">留人难</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E4%B8%8D%E6%8C%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">收入不振</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%8B%E5%8D%87%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">晋升困难</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内卷</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">供给与变化</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span 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href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E9%87%8F%E5%A4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作量大价平</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E5%AE%B5%E6%89%93%E7%81%B0%E5%8F%8D%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通宵打灰反人类</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BC%E5%9E%AE%E5%A1%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">颜值垮塌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A4%E7%97%85%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%AF%E5%8A%B3%E6%88%90%E7%96%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">伤病风险与积劳成疾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%BD%E8%AF%AF%E5%A9%9A%E6%81%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">耽误婚恋</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%95%99%E4%BA%BA%E9%9A%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">留人难</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E4%B8%8D%E6%8C%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">收入不振</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%8B%E5%8D%87%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">晋升困难</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E5%8D%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内卷</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">供给与变化</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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class="toc-text">定量分析</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西瓜和芝麻</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#QRW%E5%8A%9F%E8%83%BD%E7%A4%BA%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">QRW功能示例</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术的两个支柱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E2%80%93%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有信息–数据的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E5%A5%BD%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E2%80%93%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用好信息–模型的重要性</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">排序所需的信息</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2%E6%97%A0%E5%85%B3%E7%9A%84%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">与查询无关的部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E7%9A%84%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">和查询相关的部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E6%80%A7%E5%8C%96%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">个性化信息</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E6%80%A7%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E6%98%AF%E8%89%AF%E8%8D%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">个性化是否是良药</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E5%8B%BA%E7%83%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">排序的一勺烩</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">召回不是问题，但准确率不高时</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">应对作弊的方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%A8%E5%8A%9E%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E7%BD%91%E9%A1%B5%E4%B8%8A%E5%81%9A%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">笨办法：在网页上做文章</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%AA%E6%98%8E%E5%8A%9E%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E9%93%BE%E6%8E%A5%E4%B8%8A%E5%81%9A%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0%EF%BC%88%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%86%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">聪明办法：在链接上做文章（背后皆有利益驱动）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9E%83%E5%9C%BE%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">垃圾的本质</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">点击模型&amp;客户端的竞争</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">爬虫的挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">神经网络的代际趣闻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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class="toc-text">定量分析</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西瓜和芝麻</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#QRW%E5%8A%9F%E8%83%BD%E7%A4%BA%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">QRW功能示例</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术的两个支柱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E2%80%93%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有信息–数据的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E5%A5%BD%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E2%80%93%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用好信息–模型的重要性</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">排序所需的信息</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2%E6%97%A0%E5%85%B3%E7%9A%84%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">与查询无关的部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E7%9A%84%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">和查询相关的部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E6%80%A7%E5%8C%96%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">个性化信息</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E6%80%A7%E5%8C%96%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E6%98%AF%E8%89%AF%E8%8D%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">个性化是否是良药</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E5%8B%BA%E7%83%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">排序的一勺烩</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">召回不是问题，但准确率不高时</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">应对作弊的方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%A8%E5%8A%9E%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E7%BD%91%E9%A1%B5%E4%B8%8A%E5%81%9A%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">笨办法：在网页上做文章</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%AA%E6%98%8E%E5%8A%9E%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E9%93%BE%E6%8E%A5%E4%B8%8A%E5%81%9A%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0%EF%BC%88%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%86%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">聪明办法：在链接上做文章（背后皆有利益驱动）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9E%83%E5%9C%BE%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">垃圾的本质</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">点击模型&amp;客户端的竞争</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">爬虫的挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">神经网络的代际趣闻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span 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diff --git "a/\346\225\217\346\204\237\344\277\241\346\201\257\345\212\240\345\257\206.html" "b/\346\225\217\346\204\237\344\277\241\346\201\257\345\212\240\345\257\206.html"
index 8f005ec860..d03ca28a05 100644
--- "a/\346\225\217\346\204\237\344\277\241\346\201\257\345\212\240\345\257\206.html"
+++ "b/\346\225\217\346\204\237\344\277\241\346\201\257\345\212\240\345\257\206.html"
@@ -411,7 +411,7 @@ <h2 id="多说几句">多说几句</h2>
 <li>反向加密授权就是敏感数据被污染的风险（可通过单项散列数据特征校验码来缓解此风险）</li>
 <li>密钥扩散的风险可通过单独准备一把数据共享密钥，用此密钥单独加密需共享数据的方式降低密钥扩散的风险</li>
 </ul>
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toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%B1%82%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8A%A0%E8%A7%A3%E5%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">在应用层进行数据加解密</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%8F%E6%84%9F%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E8%A1%A8%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">敏感信息表改造</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%88%97%E5%AD%97%E6%AE%B5%E6%8D%A2%E4%B8%A4%E5%88%97%E5%AF%86%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一列字段换两列密文</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E9%92%A5%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">密钥策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E9%92%A5%E8%BF%87%E6%9C%9F-%E6%B3%84%E6%BC%8F%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%9B%B4%E6%8D%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">密钥过期&#x2F;泄漏如何更换</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E6%96%87%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">密文改造的挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%82%AC%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">催生的设计变革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">设计变革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AD%E7%8E%AF%E7%AE%A1%E6%8E%A7%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">闭环管控流程变革</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E7%BB%84%E6%88%90%E6%A8%A1%E5%9D%97%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构组成模块关系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0%E6%AD%A5%E9%AA%A4"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">改造步骤</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%8E%A9"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据环境怎么玩</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据的特别点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86%E6%B2%A1%E5%95%86%E9%87%8F"><span 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E7%A0%81%E5%AD%A6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">密码学基础</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9F%AF%E5%85%8B%E9%9C%8D%E5%A4%AB%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99%EF%BC%88Kerckhoffs%E2%80%98s-Principle%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">柯克霍夫原则（Kerckhoffs‘s Principle）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%8D%E8%83%BD%E8%87%AA%E8%A1%8C%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E5%8A%A0%E8%A7%A3%E5%AF%86%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何不能自行设计加解密算法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%B1%82%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%8A%A0%E8%A7%A3%E5%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">在应用层进行数据加解密</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%8F%E6%84%9F%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E8%A1%A8%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">敏感信息表改造</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E5%88%97%E5%AD%97%E6%AE%B5%E6%8D%A2%E4%B8%A4%E5%88%97%E5%AF%86%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一列字段换两列密文</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E9%92%A5%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">密钥策略</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E9%92%A5%E8%BF%87%E6%9C%9F-%E6%B3%84%E6%BC%8F%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%9B%B4%E6%8D%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">密钥过期&#x2F;泄漏如何更换</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%86%E6%96%87%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">密文改造的挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%82%AC%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">催生的设计变革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">设计变革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%97%AD%E7%8E%AF%E7%AE%A1%E6%8E%A7%E6%B5%81%E7%A8%8B%E5%8F%98%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">闭环管控流程变革</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E7%BB%84%E6%88%90%E6%A8%A1%E5%9D%97%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构组成模块关系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0%E6%AD%A5%E9%AA%A4"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">改造步骤</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E7%8E%A9"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据环境怎么玩</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据的特别点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86%E6%B2%A1%E5%95%86%E9%87%8F"><span 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diff --git "a/\346\225\231\350\202\262\346\224\271\345\217\230\345\221\275\350\277\220.html" "b/\346\225\231\350\202\262\346\224\271\345\217\230\345\221\275\350\277\220.html"
index 6b3a971dcc..5eeeba8403 100644
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+++ "b/\346\225\231\350\202\262\346\224\271\345\217\230\345\221\275\350\277\220.html"
@@ -401,7 +401,7 @@ <h2 id="总结">总结</h2>
 </ol>
 <p><strong><u>孩子长大不陷入痛苦失落，做父母的就成功了</u></strong>，心之所向，便是光芒。</p>
 <p>AI 终将学会人类的所有本事，这是人类最大的挑战和机会，可能会颠覆社会结构和经济模式，同时也能解决气候变化，疾病等全球性问题，同时也能创造前所未有的发展机会。用上 AI，培养对它的能力直觉。人类创造性学习和问题解决的能力，将成为你核心的竞争力。另外，别纠结过去，专注于解决眼前的问题，遇到困难的时候，不要陷在『如果当初怎么样就好了』的情绪里，而是直接问自己『下一步该怎么去改善现状』，这能让人更能应对 AI 时代的不确定性。社会可能跟不上技术的脚步，AI 的发展速度可能远超社会的适应能力，如现有的法律教育体系，可能无法及时应对 AI 带来的伦理问题。</p>
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href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E4%B8%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%8E%A5%E8%BD%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育资源不平衡是与世界接轨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E5%B7%B2%E5%9B%BA%E5%8C%96%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶层已固化吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%AF%8C%E9%9D%A0%E5%91%BD%EF%BC%8C%E5%B0%8F%E5%AF%8C%E9%9D%A0%E8%BF%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大富靠命，小富靠运</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代的力量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E4%B9%9F%E6%98%AF%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代也是你的运</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E8%83%BD%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育能改变命运吗？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%90%9E%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E5%AE%9A%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">搞清楚自己的教育定位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%87%E6%B3%A8%E5%AE%9A%E8%89%B0%E8%BE%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产上升注定艰辛</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E9%86%92%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">清醒反思</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%AB%E4%B9%90%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E4%B8%8E%E5%90%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">快乐教育与否</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B7%E8%B7%91%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">起跑线</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2021%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8C%E5%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2021年的双减</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E8%B0%81"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">影响谁</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BF%E8%AE%A4%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">承认现实</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%93%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%EF%BC%8C%E6%89%8E%E5%AE%9E%E8%AE%A4%E7%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">抓重点，扎实认真</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E9%A9%B1%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内驱不足</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%8A%95%E5%85%A5%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">核心投入时间不足</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E5%8F%8C%E5%87%8F%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92%E7%BA%AF%E7%B2%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">面对双减回归纯粹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Liberal-Arts-Education"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Liberal Arts Education</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E8%AF%AD%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">学语文</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">学数学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">学英语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">学历史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">学科学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%A4%B1%E8%B0%83"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">高等教育认知失调</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%9F%E6%95%B0%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年毕业生数量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB%E7%9A%84%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">博士的通胀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A8%E5%8F%98%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E6%BB%9E%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">巨变的认知滞后</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD-2"><span class="toc-number">4.7.</span> 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href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E4%B8%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%8E%A5%E8%BD%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育资源不平衡是与世界接轨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E5%B7%B2%E5%9B%BA%E5%8C%96%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶层已固化吗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%AF%8C%E9%9D%A0%E5%91%BD%EF%BC%8C%E5%B0%8F%E5%AF%8C%E9%9D%A0%E8%BF%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大富靠命，小富靠运</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代的力量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E4%B9%9F%E6%98%AF%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%90"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代也是你的运</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E8%83%BD%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">教育能改变命运吗？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%90%9E%E6%B8%85%E6%A5%9A%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E5%AE%9A%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">搞清楚自己的教育定位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%87%E6%B3%A8%E5%AE%9A%E8%89%B0%E8%BE%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产上升注定艰辛</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E9%86%92%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">清醒反思</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%AB%E4%B9%90%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E4%B8%8E%E5%90%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">快乐教育与否</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B7%E8%B7%91%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">起跑线</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2021%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8C%E5%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">2021年的双减</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E8%B0%81"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">影响谁</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BF%E8%AE%A4%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">承认现实</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%93%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%EF%BC%8C%E6%89%8E%E5%AE%9E%E8%AE%A4%E7%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">抓重点，扎实认真</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E9%A9%B1%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">内驱不足</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%8A%95%E5%85%A5%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">核心投入时间不足</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E5%8F%8C%E5%87%8F%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92%E7%BA%AF%E7%B2%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">面对双减回归纯粹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Liberal-Arts-Education"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Liberal Arts Education</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E8%AF%AD%E6%96%87"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">学语文</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">学数学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">学英语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">学历史</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">学科学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%A4%B1%E8%B0%83"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">高等教育认知失调</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E6%AF%95%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%9F%E6%95%B0%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">年毕业生数量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB%E7%9A%84%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">博士的通胀</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A8%E5%8F%98%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E6%BB%9E%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">巨变的认知滞后</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD-2"><span class="toc-number">4.7.</span> 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diff --git "a/\346\225\260\345\255\227\345\214\226\346\227\266\344\273\243\345\233\236\347\234\213\350\277\220\347\273\264.html" "b/\346\225\260\345\255\227\345\214\226\346\227\266\344\273\243\345\233\236\347\234\213\350\277\220\347\273\264.html"
index d112d407d4..5b93b0a398 100644
--- "a/\346\225\260\345\255\227\345\214\226\346\227\266\344\273\243\345\233\236\347\234\213\350\277\220\347\273\264.html"
+++ "b/\346\225\260\345\255\227\345\214\226\346\227\266\344\273\243\345\233\236\347\234\213\350\277\220\347\273\264.html"
@@ -275,7 +275,7 @@ <h2 id="数字化转型">数字化转型</h2>
 </blockquote>
 <h1>结语</h1>
 <p>一路而来，是一路超载发展的路程。“超载”，就是在不同时期，根据业务需要被赋予不同的职责和责任，有此而来，想象的空间才会变大，可做的事情也越来越多，未来会有更多可以发展的方向。</p>
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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从维护到流程革命</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E8%84%9A%E6%9C%AC%E5%88%B0%E8%87%AA%E7%A0%94%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从人工脚本到自研平台</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">云服务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DevOps"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DevOps</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">微服务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#AIOps"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">AIOps</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">数字化转型</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从维护到流程革命</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E8%84%9A%E6%9C%AC%E5%88%B0%E8%87%AA%E7%A0%94%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从人工脚本到自研平台</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">云服务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DevOps"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DevOps</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">微服务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a 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diff --git "a/\346\225\260\346\215\256\344\270\255\345\217\260\344\270\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\346\274\253\350\260\210.html" "b/\346\225\260\346\215\256\344\270\255\345\217\260\344\270\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\346\274\253\350\260\210.html"
index 4521e61c5b..129e65df79 100644
--- "a/\346\225\260\346\215\256\344\270\255\345\217\260\344\270\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\346\274\253\350\260\210.html"
+++ "b/\346\225\260\346\215\256\344\270\255\345\217\260\344\270\216\346\212\200\346\234\257\346\274\253\350\260\210.html"
@@ -1083,7 +1083,7 @@ <h2 id="Other">Other</h2>
 <p>太多初创企业陷入错误的逻辑：大数据=非结构化数据=hadoop，非结构化和半结构化数据的利用是呈现了爆炸式增长，但也要注意到，结构化数据的使用上，也出现了指数式增长。</p>
 <p>搞起来了，自有人会来光顾。这是错误的观念，想用大数据创业，业务专长必须有，同时技术也必须保证是尖端的，这些都是普通商户所缺乏的，如何<font color="dodgerblue">帮助非技术型用户在其日常工作中轻松使用数据才是问题的关键</font>。</p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Segmentfault <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://segmentfault.com/a/1190000018045485">简单认识 KMV Sketch 估算算法</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/white_light/article/details/142527456">开源 OLAP 技术架构对比</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">51CTO <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.51cto.com/u_14637492/8964146">数据湖三剑客对比</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1626302">Druid Segment存储格式</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1927729">解读数据架构的2021</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">腾讯云 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/2005918">基于 Iceberg 扩展 Doris 数据湖能力的实践</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sohu.com/a/415708939_411876">主流开源OLAP系统的分类及核心技术点</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:8"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">8.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://news.sohu.com/a/601378393_374240">主流开源OLAP引擎大比拼</a><a href="#fnref:8" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright__original" title="该文章为原创文章，注意版权协议" 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据中台</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E9%94%9A%E5%AE%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值锚定</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E8%8C%83%E7%95%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作范畴</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力建设</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%BC%BA%E8%B0%83%E9%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%BA%E8%BF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据治理怎么强调都不为过</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">算法建模管理</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E5%88%92%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">团队划分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%90%E5%BF%91%E8%89%B0%E8%8B%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">数字化转型，忐忑艰苦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">指导思想</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E4%B8%8E%E4%BE%8B%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结与例说</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">过去的债务</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">古早技术概念介绍</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E4%BB%93%E7%9A%84%E6%98%9F%E5%9E%8B%E5%92%8C%E9%9B%AA%E8%8A%B1%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%88%E5%A4%9A%E8%A1%A8%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数仓的星型和雪花模型（多表组合模型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%BD%E8%A1%A8%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%92%8C%E5%A4%9A%E8%A1%A8%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宽表模型和多表组合模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%95%B0%E4%BC%B0%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">基数估计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#OLTP-vs-OLAP"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLTP vs OLAP</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#OLAP-%E8%84%91%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLAP 脑图</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B6%E5%8F%91%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">并发差异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hadoop%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E6%BC%94%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hadoop的调度演进</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据架构</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Lambda-%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">2.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Lambda 架构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Kappa-%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">2.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Kappa 架构</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">湖仓一体化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E6%97%B6%E6%95%B0%E4%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">实时数仓</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E5%BD%93%E7%BA%A2%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三大当红国际派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%AE%B0%E4%B8%80%E5%98%B4-Hudi"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">多记一嘴 Hudi</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Doris"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Doris</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Kudu"><span class="toc-number">3.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Kudu</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B9%96%E4%BB%93%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">湖仓对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88%E6%B5%81%E6%B4%BE%EF%BC%88Data-Lakehouse%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">融合流派（Data Lakehouse）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%80%A7%E4%B8%8E%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据复杂性与管理挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">体系融合</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93-vs-%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结 vs 预测</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLAP 查询引擎</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%A4%E6%97%A9%E5%AE%9E%E6%97%B6%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%8E%A2%E7%B4%A2%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">古早实时数据探索系统的问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E8%B4%A8%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新质生产力对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%86%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%80%E4%BC%97%E5%BC%95%E6%93%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">细说说一众引擎</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Presto"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Presto</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Impala"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Impala</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ClickHouse"><span class="toc-number">4.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ClickHouse</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Greenplum"><span class="toc-number">4.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Greenplum</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A3%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">劣势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Druid"><span class="toc-number">4.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Druid</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%82%E5%90%88%E7%9A%84%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不适合的场景</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#OLAP-%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLAP 的实现模式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能特性比较</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">简单查询</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂查询</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ES-%E5%87%BA%E5%88%97%E5%8D%95%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ES 出列单看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%AE%B0%E4%B8%80%E5%98%B4-Druid"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">多记一嘴 Druid</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E5%BA%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时序数据库特性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Segment%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Segment设计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E5%89%96%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">行数据结构剖析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%8D%E5%9B%BE%E7%B4%A2%E5%BC%95%E5%86%8D%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">位图索引再举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E8%AE%A8%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">设计讨论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Druid-vs-Impala"><span class="toc-number">4.6.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Druid vs Impala</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Druid-vs-Kylin"><span class="toc-number">4.6.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Druid vs Kylin</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">新的Topic与期待</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E9%A2%91%E8%B0%B1%E5%8F%AF%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">全频谱可平衡支持</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%BD%91%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据网格</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据安全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#IOT-%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">IOT 时代的不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DW-Automation"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">DW Automation</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E6%9C%B5%E4%B9%8C%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">几朵乌云</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Other"><span class="toc-number">5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">Other</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据中台</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E9%94%9A%E5%AE%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">价值锚定</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E8%8C%83%E7%95%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">工作范畴</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力建设</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%BC%BA%E8%B0%83%E9%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%BA%E8%BF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据治理怎么强调都不为过</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">算法建模管理</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E5%88%92%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">团队划分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%97%E5%8C%96%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%90%E5%BF%91%E8%89%B0%E8%8B%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">数字化转型，忐忑艰苦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">指导思想</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E4%B8%8E%E4%BE%8B%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结与例说</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">过去的债务</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">古早技术概念介绍</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E4%BB%93%E7%9A%84%E6%98%9F%E5%9E%8B%E5%92%8C%E9%9B%AA%E8%8A%B1%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%88%E5%A4%9A%E8%A1%A8%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数仓的星型和雪花模型（多表组合模型）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%BD%E8%A1%A8%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%92%8C%E5%A4%9A%E8%A1%A8%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宽表模型和多表组合模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%95%B0%E4%BC%B0%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">基数估计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#OLTP-vs-OLAP"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLTP vs OLAP</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#OLAP-%E8%84%91%E5%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLAP 脑图</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B6%E5%8F%91%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">并发差异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Hadoop%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%83%E5%BA%A6%E6%BC%94%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Hadoop的调度演进</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据架构</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Lambda-%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">2.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Lambda 架构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Kappa-%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">2.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Kappa 架构</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">湖仓一体化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E6%97%B6%E6%95%B0%E4%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">实时数仓</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E5%A4%A7%E5%BD%93%E7%BA%A2%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三大当红国际派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%AE%B0%E4%B8%80%E5%98%B4-Hudi"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">多记一嘴 Hudi</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Doris"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Doris</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Kudu"><span class="toc-number">3.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Kudu</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B9%96%E4%BB%93%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">湖仓对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88%E6%B5%81%E6%B4%BE%EF%BC%88Data-Lakehouse%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">融合流派（Data Lakehouse）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%80%A7%E4%B8%8E%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据复杂性与管理挑战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E8%9E%8D%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">体系融合</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93-vs-%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结 vs 预测</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLAP 查询引擎</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%A4%E6%97%A9%E5%AE%9E%E6%97%B6%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%8E%A2%E7%B4%A2%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">古早实时数据探索系统的问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E8%B4%A8%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新质生产力对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%86%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%80%E4%BC%97%E5%BC%95%E6%93%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">细说说一众引擎</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Presto"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Presto</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Impala"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Impala</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ClickHouse"><span class="toc-number">4.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ClickHouse</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Greenplum"><span class="toc-number">4.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Greenplum</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A3%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">劣势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Druid"><span class="toc-number">4.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Druid</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%82%E5%90%88%E7%9A%84%E5%9C%BA%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不适合的场景</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#OLAP-%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E7%8E%B0%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">OLAP 的实现模式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能力对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能特性比较</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">简单查询</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%A2"><span class="toc-number">4.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂查询</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#ES-%E5%87%BA%E5%88%97%E5%8D%95%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">ES 出列单看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%AE%B0%E4%B8%80%E5%98%B4-Druid"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">多记一嘴 Druid</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E5%BA%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%E7%89%B9%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时序数据库特性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Segment%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Segment设计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E5%89%96%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">4.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">行数据结构剖析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%8D%E5%9B%BE%E7%B4%A2%E5%BC%95%E5%86%8D%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">位图索引再举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E8%AE%A8%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">设计讨论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Druid-vs-Impala"><span class="toc-number">4.6.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Druid vs Impala</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Druid-vs-Kylin"><span class="toc-number">4.6.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Druid vs Kylin</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">新的Topic与期待</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E9%A2%91%E8%B0%B1%E5%8F%AF%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">全频谱可平衡支持</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%BD%91%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据网格</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据安全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#IOT-%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">IOT 时代的不同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DW-Automation"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">DW Automation</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E6%9C%B5%E4%B9%8C%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">几朵乌云</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Other"><span class="toc-number">5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">Other</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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diff --git "a/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\200\276\346\226\234\346\265\205\350\277\260.html" "b/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\200\276\346\226\234\346\265\205\350\277\260.html"
index 9b70e97216..8daa7ef2e3 100644
--- "a/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\200\276\346\226\234\346\265\205\350\277\260.html"
+++ "b/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\200\276\346\226\234\346\265\205\350\277\260.html"
@@ -233,7 +233,7 @@ <h2 id="原因剖析与解决出发点">原因剖析与解决出发点</h2>
 <p>当然，这些困难并不是理论上不可避免的，随着时间的推移，越来越多的针对性优化措施已逐渐出现（如spark3已经能自动应对部分数据倾斜的情况了），也许在不久的将来业务同学不会再被倾斜问题烦恼，但现阶段还需数据开发工程师主动关注并应对。</p>
 <h3 id="从业务逻辑审视出发">从业务逻辑审视出发</h3>
 <p>如果发生了数据倾斜，有不小的概率是业务逻辑/需求不合理，需要跟业务方反复确认逻辑的合理性，优化业务逻辑一定要高过优化技术方案。</p>
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class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">算倾斜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%99%E5%80%BE%E6%96%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">写倾斜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E5%80%BE%E6%96%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">文件操作倾斜</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E5%89%96%E6%9E%90%E4%B8%8E%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%91%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">原因剖析与解决出发点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91%E5%AE%A1%E8%A7%86%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从业务逻辑审视出发</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget 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diff --git "a/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\272\223schema\346\246\202\345\277\265\345\267\256\345\274\202.html" "b/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\272\223schema\346\246\202\345\277\265\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
index d58e8c0f07..61ef4472b8 100644
--- "a/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\272\223schema\346\246\202\345\277\265\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
+++ "b/\346\225\260\346\215\256\345\272\223schema\346\246\202\345\277\265\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
@@ -420,7 +420,7 @@ <h4 id="自研分布式">自研分布式</h4>
 <p>基于LSM树的数据库，因其优秀的写友好及高并发，也有非常优秀的产品。典型的就是TiDB和OceanBase，基于LSM-Tree，结合Paxos或Raft协议实现分布式高可用。</p>
 <p>另SequoiaDB巨杉数据库，是一款金融级分布式数据库，支持创建多种类型数据库实例MySQL，MariaDB，PostgreSQL，SparkSQL四种关系型数据库实例，JSON文档类数据实例，及S3对象存储的非结构化数据实例。</p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://database.guide/what-is-a-database-schema/">What is a Database Schema?</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://dataedo.com/kb/data-glossary/what-is-database-schema">What is Database Schema</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: 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id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念厂商差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#MySQL"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">MySQL</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Oracle"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Oracle</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQL-Server"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQL Server</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%E6%B8%85%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">差别清单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">逻辑概念的命名空间</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#schema%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">schema的功效</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国内的信创数据库生态</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%9B%BE%E8%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业图谱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%E6%BA%AF%E6%BA%90%E5%9B%BE%E8%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据库溯源图谱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户选择视角</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%B1%E7%B3%BB%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">谱系说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Oracle%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Oracle兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#MySQL%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">MySQL兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#PG%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">PG兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Open-Gauss%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">Open Gauss体系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Informix%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">Informix兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%A0%94%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">自研分布式</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念厂商差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#MySQL"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">MySQL</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Oracle"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Oracle</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQL-Server"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQL Server</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB%E6%B8%85%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">差别清单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">逻辑概念的命名空间</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#schema%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">schema的功效</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国内的信创数据库生态</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%9B%BE%E8%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业图谱</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%E6%BA%AF%E6%BA%90%E5%9B%BE%E8%B0%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据库溯源图谱</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户选择视角</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%B1%E7%B3%BB%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">谱系说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Oracle%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Oracle兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#MySQL%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">MySQL兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#PG%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">PG兼容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Open-Gauss%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB"><span 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diff --git "a/\346\226\207\345\255\246\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225-\344\270\212.html" "b/\346\226\207\345\255\246\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225-\344\270\212.html"
index c8ca542a11..014cae3a55 100644
--- "a/\346\226\207\345\255\246\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225-\344\270\212.html"
+++ "b/\346\226\207\345\255\246\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225-\344\270\212.html"
@@ -432,7 +432,7 @@ <h2 id="后记">后记</h2>
 <p>连科技与真理的探索都不提，嗯，一口老血。</p>
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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B2%E8%AF%97"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">史诗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%EF%BC%8C%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%EF%BC%8C%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲学，宗教，艺术</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国哲学家</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E7%9D%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基督</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教的矛盾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛家</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">艺术</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E7%9B%B8%E4%B8%8E%E7%81%B5%E6%99%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">行相与灵智</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%95%99%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人文教养</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E8%A1%A3%E8%A3%85%E5%96%BB%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用衣装喻文学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%E4%B8%A4%E6%B1%89%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">先秦两汉魏晋</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%BB%E9%AA%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">离骚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B2%E4%B9%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">史书</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%AE%B6%E4%BA%89%E9%B8%A3%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">百家争鸣画像</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉魏晋</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%90%E8%AF%97"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">唐诗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E8%AF%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋词</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%8F%E6%9B%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">戏曲</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E6%B8%85%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">明清小说</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E6%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%89%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">5.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">西游的争论与创作</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E9%83%A8%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%B4%E5%90%8D%E8%91%97"><span class="toc-number">5.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">几部小说名著</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E9%9B%AA%E8%8A%B9%E5%92%8C%E7%BA%A2%E6%A5%BC%E6%A2%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹雪芹和红楼梦</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A2%E6%96%AF%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%EF%BC%8C%E9%98%BF%E6%8B%89%E4%BC%AF%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">波斯文学，阿拉伯文学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">日本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E8%89%BA%E5%A4%8D%E5%85%B4%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E8%A5%BF%E6%96%B9%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">文艺复兴时代的西方文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%93%88%E5%A7%86%E9%9B%B7%E7%89%B9%E3%80%8B%E4%B8%8E%E3%80%8A%E5%94%90%E5%90%89%E5%9D%B7%E5%BE%B7%E3%80%8B"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《哈姆雷特》与《唐吉坷德》</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E9%87%87-%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">文采&#x2F;形式的重要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%97%E5%A5%97"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">格局与俗套</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%8F%AA%E8%AF%B4%E6%82%84%E6%82%84%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">历史只说悄悄话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%91%E5%B9%B4%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">少年人的指导</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E7%9A%84%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文学的起源</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%8C%E8%85%8A%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%9D%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">希腊神话传说</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%8B%E9%87%8C%E7%89%B9%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">克里特岛</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E7%BE%8A%E6%AF%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金羊毛</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B2%E8%AF%97"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">史诗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%EF%BC%8C%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%EF%BC%8C%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲学，宗教，艺术</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国哲学家</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E7%9D%A3"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基督</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">宗教的矛盾</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛家</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">艺术</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E7%9B%B8%E4%B8%8E%E7%81%B5%E6%99%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">行相与灵智</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%96%87%E6%95%99%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人文教养</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E8%A1%A3%E8%A3%85%E5%96%BB%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用衣装喻文学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%E4%B8%A4%E6%B1%89%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">先秦两汉魏晋</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%BB%E9%AA%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">离骚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B2%E4%B9%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">史书</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%AE%B6%E4%BA%89%E9%B8%A3%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">百家争鸣画像</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B1%89%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">汉魏晋</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%90%E8%AF%97"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">唐诗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E8%AF%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋词</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%8F%E6%9B%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">戏曲</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E6%B8%85%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">明清小说</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E6%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%89%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">5.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">西游的争论与创作</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E9%83%A8%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%B4%E5%90%8D%E8%91%97"><span class="toc-number">5.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">几部小说名著</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B9%E9%9B%AA%E8%8A%B9%E5%92%8C%E7%BA%A2%E6%A5%BC%E6%A2%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">曹雪芹和红楼梦</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A2%E6%96%AF%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%EF%BC%8C%E9%98%BF%E6%8B%89%E4%BC%AF%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">波斯文学，阿拉伯文学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">日本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E8%89%BA%E5%A4%8D%E5%85%B4%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E8%A5%BF%E6%96%B9%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">文艺复兴时代的西方文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%93%88%E5%A7%86%E9%9B%B7%E7%89%B9%E3%80%8B%E4%B8%8E%E3%80%8A%E5%94%90%E5%90%89%E5%9D%B7%E5%BE%B7%E3%80%8B"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《哈姆雷特》与《唐吉坷德》</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E9%87%87-%E5%BD%A2%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">文采&#x2F;形式的重要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%E4%B8%8E%E4%BF%97%E5%A5%97"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">格局与俗套</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%8F%AA%E8%AF%B4%E6%82%84%E6%82%84%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">历史只说悄悄话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%91%E5%B9%B4%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">少年人的指导</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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@@ -463,7 +463,7 @@ <h4 id="佛教">佛教</h4>
 <h2 id="后记">后记</h2>
 <p>讲课与聊天究竟不通，自上世纪五十年代木心在上海高桥做过几年中学教师，此后数十年再没教过书，起初几堂课，谈希腊罗马，谈诗经，他可能有些生疏而过于郑重了，时或在解读故事或长句中结巴，绊住，后来他说，头几课讲完，透不过气来，两三课后，他恢复了平素聊天的闲适而松动，越讲到后来，越是收放自如。陈丹青的这段也回应了木心自己的课堂自评。</p>
 <p>或许下册是更个人化的，上册的文学名人们根深蒂固，希望自己有可能多拜读一些穿越时空的经典文学。</p>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BA%B2%E5%BC%A5%E8%A1%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">总纲弥补</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E9%AB%93"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">精髓</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">动机</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%81%E4%B9%9D%E4%B8%96%E7%BA%AA%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">十九世纪的文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">英国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%97%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">诗人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%84%E6%9B%B4%E6%96%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">狄更斯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E4%BD%9C%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">女作家</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">儿童文学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%88%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">哈代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%B0%94%E5%BE%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">王尔德</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%95%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">法国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%A8%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">雨果</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%B0%8F%E4%BB%B2%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大小仲马</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B4%E5%B0%94%E6%89%8E%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">巴尔扎克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%8F%E6%A5%BC%E6%8B%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">福楼拜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B8%E6%B1%A4%E8%BE%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">司汤达</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%AB%E6%B3%8A%E6%A1%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">莫泊桑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">德国篇</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%84%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">俄国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%80%E6%80%9D%E5%A6%A5%E8%80%B6%E5%A4%AB%E6%96%AF%E5%9F%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">陀思妥耶夫斯基</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%98%E5%B0%94%E6%96%AF%E6%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">托尔斯泰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E5%B0%94%E5%9F%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高尔基</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E7%AF%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">长篇的力量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%B9%E9%BA%A6%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">丹麦篇</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B1%E5%B0%94%E5%85%B0%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">爱尔兰篇</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国篇</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E5%8D%81%E4%B8%96%E7%BA%AA%E5%88%9D%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">二十世纪初期世界文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9E%AE%E6%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">垮掉的一代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">存在主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B3%E6%B0%91%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">平民性的哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%97%E6%B4%9B%E4%BC%8A%E5%BE%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">弗洛伊德</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%90%E8%A7%82%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">进化论与乐观主义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%80%9D%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">马克思的问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E4%BA%8C%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯二的文学笔记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A1%E5%A4%AB%E5%8D%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">卡夫卡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E7%BE%8E%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">南美文学</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%A8%E5%BF%83%E7%9A%84%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E5%A4%A7%E7%BA%B2"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">木心的哲学大纲</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%97%81%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代的旁观</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E9%9B%B6%E6%95%A3%E9%87%91%E5%8F%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些零散金句</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文学与其它艺术</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E8%A5%BF%E6%96%B9%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">东西方差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">方言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%9B%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">佛教</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BA%B2%E5%BC%A5%E8%A1%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">总纲弥补</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E9%AB%93"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">精髓</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">动机</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%81%E4%B9%9D%E4%B8%96%E7%BA%AA%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">十九世纪的文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8B%B1%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">英国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%97%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">诗人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%84%E6%9B%B4%E6%96%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">狄更斯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E4%BD%9C%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">女作家</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">儿童文学</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%88%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">哈代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%8B%E5%B0%94%E5%BE%B7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">王尔德</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%95%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">法国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9B%A8%E6%9E%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">雨果</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%B0%8F%E4%BB%B2%E9%A9%AC"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大小仲马</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B4%E5%B0%94%E6%89%8E%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">巴尔扎克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A6%8F%E6%A5%BC%E6%8B%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">福楼拜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B8%E6%B1%A4%E8%BE%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">司汤达</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%AB%E6%B3%8A%E6%A1%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">莫泊桑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">德国篇</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%84%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">俄国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%80%E6%80%9D%E5%A6%A5%E8%80%B6%E5%A4%AB%E6%96%AF%E5%9F%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">陀思妥耶夫斯基</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%98%E5%B0%94%E6%96%AF%E6%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">托尔斯泰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E5%B0%94%E5%9F%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高尔基</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E7%AF%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">长篇的力量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%B9%E9%BA%A6%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">丹麦篇</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B1%E5%B0%94%E5%85%B0%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">爱尔兰篇</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国篇</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E5%8D%81%E4%B8%96%E7%BA%AA%E5%88%9D%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">二十世纪初期世界文学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9E%AE%E6%8E%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">垮掉的一代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">存在主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B3%E6%B0%91%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">平民性的哲学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%97%E6%B4%9B%E4%BC%8A%E5%BE%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">弗洛伊德</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%90%E8%A7%82%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">进化论与乐观主义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%80%9D%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">马克思的问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%94%AF%E4%BA%8C%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E7%AC%94%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">唯二的文学笔记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A1%E5%A4%AB%E5%8D%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">卡夫卡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%97%E7%BE%8E%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">南美文学</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%A8%E5%BF%83%E7%9A%84%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%A6%E5%A4%A7%E7%BA%B2"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">木心的哲学大纲</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%97%81%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">时代的旁观</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E9%9B%B6%E6%95%A3%E9%87%91%E5%8F%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些零散金句</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E8%89%BA%E6%9C%AF"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文学与其它艺术</span></a></li><li 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diff --git "a/\346\227\266\351\227\264\345\216\273\345\223\252\344\272\206.html" "b/\346\227\266\351\227\264\345\216\273\345\223\252\344\272\206.html"
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@@ -316,7 +316,7 @@ <h4 id="结果的推论">结果的推论</h4>
 <li>无业者心理状态更差（不被需要），闲得更久，满足感却没有比工作者高多少</li>
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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E9%94%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开销</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%81%E6%97%B6%EF%BC%9A%E5%A4%A9%E8%8A%B1%E6%9D%BF%E4%BD%8E"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">省时：天花板低</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AC%E5%BF%B5%EF%BC%9A%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">转念：提升质量</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%A1%E5%A5%BD%E5%8D%B3%E8%BA%BA%E8%B5%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">睡好即躺赢</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%91%E9%97%B2%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%BB%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">休闲要主动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%8A%A1%E4%BA%8B%E4%B8%8D%E7%88%B1%E5%B0%BD%E9%87%8F%E7%94%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">家务事不爱尽量甩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%85%A7%E9%A1%BE%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E8%A6%81%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">照顾孩子要尽心</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%B0%B1%E6%98%AF%E7%97%9B%E8%8B%A6%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">时间管理就是痛苦管理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E8%87%AA%E6%8E%A7%E5%87%BA%E9%94%99%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%81%E5%BA%A6%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">非自控出错，态度问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E5%BF%83%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">达成心流</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E8%AE%BA%E6%8B%96%E5%BB%B6%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼论拖延症</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%B8%9F%E7%9E%B0%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%89%E6%8E%92"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">鸟瞰时间的安排</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E6%97%B6%E5%85%89%E5%B9%B6%E9%9D%9E%E8%B6%8A%E9%95%BF%E8%B6%8A%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">自由时光并非越长越好</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%A8%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.0.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结果的推论</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget 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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E9%94%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开销</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%81%E6%97%B6%EF%BC%9A%E5%A4%A9%E8%8A%B1%E6%9D%BF%E4%BD%8E"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">省时：天花板低</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AC%E5%BF%B5%EF%BC%9A%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">转念：提升质量</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%A1%E5%A5%BD%E5%8D%B3%E8%BA%BA%E8%B5%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">睡好即躺赢</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%91%E9%97%B2%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%BB%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">休闲要主动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%8A%A1%E4%BA%8B%E4%B8%8D%E7%88%B1%E5%B0%BD%E9%87%8F%E7%94%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">家务事不爱尽量甩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%85%A7%E9%A1%BE%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E8%A6%81%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">照顾孩子要尽心</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%B0%B1%E6%98%AF%E7%97%9B%E8%8B%A6%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">时间管理就是痛苦管理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E8%87%AA%E6%8E%A7%E5%87%BA%E9%94%99%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%81%E5%BA%A6%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">非自控出错，态度问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E5%BF%83%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">达成心流</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E8%AE%BA%E6%8B%96%E5%BB%B6%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼论拖延症</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%B8%9F%E7%9E%B0%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%89%E6%8E%92"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">鸟瞰时间的安排</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E6%97%B6%E5%85%89%E5%B9%B6%E9%9D%9E%E8%B6%8A%E9%95%BF%E8%B6%8A%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">自由时光并非越长越好</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%A8%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.0.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结果的推论</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget 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diff --git "a/\346\231\222\347\245\236\345\205\275=\346\231\222\350\207\252\345\267\261.html" "b/\346\231\222\347\245\236\345\205\275=\346\231\222\350\207\252\345\267\261.html"
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@@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ <h3 id="搞笑看神兽是如何进化的">搞笑看神兽是如何进化的</h3
 <h3 id="平常心看成长">平常心看成长</h3>
 <p>孩子随着年龄的增长，逐渐消失在父母的朋友圈，不仅有父母的原因，也有孩子的原因。孩子的成长和变化是一辈子的事情，要以平常心看待孩子的成长。</p>
 <p>最好的教育永远是自我教育，父母应该帮助孩子实现自我觉醒和自我教育。</p>
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diff --git "a/\346\231\272\350\203\275\351\251\276\351\251\266\347\232\204\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\225\205\344\272\213.html" "b/\346\231\272\350\203\275\351\251\276\351\251\266\347\232\204\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\225\205\344\272\213.html"
index 8f646e962e..ba1853a585 100644
--- "a/\346\231\272\350\203\275\351\251\276\351\251\266\347\232\204\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\225\205\344\272\213.html"
+++ "b/\346\231\272\350\203\275\351\251\276\351\251\266\347\232\204\344\270\255\345\233\275\346\225\205\344\272\213.html"
@@ -340,7 +340,7 @@ <h4 id="成长的反思">成长的反思</h4>
 <h2 id="频繁-OTA-在车上不是好事">频繁 OTA 在车上不是好事</h2>
 <p>有些车主很自豪频繁的 OTA，而我国是禁止频繁的 OTA 的，就是担心车企把一个不成熟的功能放车上拿真实用户去进行采集数据和测试。所以中国的智驾升级没有小版本，大规模更新都是备案推送的。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">易车网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://news.yiche.com/hao/wenzhang/89131226">解密端到端背后的数据、算力和AI奇迹</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">CSDN <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blog.csdn.net/weixin_44782294/article/details/126805421">HydraNet—特斯拉自动驾驶强大的人工智能神经网络模型</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1805514860890736609">“端到端”是自动驾驶的曙光吗</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">维科网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://m.ofweek.com/auto/2024-08/ART-70109-8500-30643808.html">“端到端”奇袭：中国内卷到了必须结束的时候</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" 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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E7%B1%BB%E9%9B%B7%E8%BE%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">几类雷达的区别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AB%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">端到端的模型趋势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E8%BD%A6%E9%9A%BE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上车难题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据的难题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%AF%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">纯视觉的问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E7%89%8C%E8%BD%A6%E4%BC%81%E7%9A%84%E8%90%BD%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">老牌车企的落后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B-%E5%94%AE%E5%90%8E%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">动力+售后全面超越</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5%E6%B2%A1%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲为啥没落</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8A%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">今后的格局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成长的反思</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%91%E7%B9%81-OTA-%E5%9C%A8%E8%BD%A6%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%A5%BD%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">频繁 OTA 在车上不是好事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div 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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E7%B1%BB%E9%9B%B7%E8%BE%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">几类雷达的区别</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AB%AF%E5%88%B0%E7%AB%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">端到端的模型趋势</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E8%BD%A6%E9%9A%BE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上车难题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数据的难题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%AF%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">纯视觉的问题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E7%89%8C%E8%BD%A6%E4%BC%81%E7%9A%84%E8%90%BD%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">老牌车企的落后</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B-%E5%94%AE%E5%90%8E%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">动力+售后全面超越</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5%E6%B2%A1%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">欧洲为啥没落</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8A%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">今后的格局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span 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index d138c065c4..57d983a35c 100644
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@@ -229,7 +229,7 @@ <h2 id="有价值的想象力特质">有价值的想象力特质</h2>
 <li><strong>逻辑自洽</strong>，简单点就是自身逻辑推演不会矛盾</li>
 <li>经过有训练的技巧，<strong>可以表现为作品</strong></li>
 </ol>
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@@ -252,7 +252,7 @@ <h3 id="强度-塑性-2">强度-塑性</h3>
 <h3 id="强度-硬度">强度+硬度</h3>
 <p>从工程角度讲，特定材料的强度一般指材料的屈服强度。总体上材料的强度越高，抵抗塑性变形能力越强，硬度越高，在特定条件下存在一定的线性关系。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">瑞士防止检验公司 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.testextextile.com/zh-CN/%E4%B8%80%E7%AF%87%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0%E5%B8%AE%E4%BD%A0%E4%BA%86%E8%A7%A3%E6%9D%90%E6%96%99%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9B%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD%E5%BC%BA%E5%BA%A6%E7%A1%AC%E5%BA%A6%E9%9F%A7%E6%80%A7%E8%84%86%E6%80%A7/">一篇文章帮你了解材料的力学性能强度硬度韧性脆性</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">化学自习室 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.hxzxs.cn/view-12109-1.html#:~:text=%E8%84%86%E6%80%A7%E4%B8%8E%E7%A1%AC%E5%BA%A6%E6%9C%89%E5%AF%86%E5%88%87,%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8E%E2%80%9C%E8%84%86%E2%80%9D%E7%9B%B8%E5%AF%B9%E3%80%82">脆性与硬度</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright-title"><span 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href="#%E5%BC%BA%E5%BA%A6-%E5%A1%91%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">强度&amp;塑性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9F%A7%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">韧性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%B9%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">弹性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BB%B6%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">延性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%95%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">展性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B%E7%9B%B8%E7%94%9F%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">一些对立相生关系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%AC%E5%BA%A6-%E8%84%86%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">硬度-脆性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%BA%E5%BA%A6-%E5%A1%91%E6%80%A7-2"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">强度-塑性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%BA%E5%BA%A6-%E7%A1%AC%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">强度+硬度</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQALE质量模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">过程质量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结果质量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQALE%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F%E5%86%85%E5%9C%A8%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQALE度量内在质量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">落地好架构的要求</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%90%88%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构合理性目标</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">需求角度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非需求角度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%845%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">持续架构的5原则</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构和架构师的价值</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%91%98%E6%9C%80%E9%9A%BE%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E6%8E%92%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">程序员最难任务排位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%80%E7%9C%BC%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">着眼长期成本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%B6%88%E8%A7%A3%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%91%98%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B4%E7%96%BC%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何消解程序员的头疼问题？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E5%8A%9B%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">不同周期的发力方向</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%AD%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">短期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%9C%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">榜样</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%B8%88%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工程师文化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">质量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A1%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">务实</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">效率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A9%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">革新</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2%E5%88%92%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">角色划分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为工作能力？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">知无涯和能力发展</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术债（TechnicalDebts）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术债的排序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%80%BA%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术债规避举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E6%98%AF%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E4%B9%9F%E6%98%AF%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码是资产也是债务</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%88%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">圈复杂度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD-%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能 !&#x3D; 效率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E7%8E%89%E8%89%AF%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金玉良言</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">回顾收尾</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%8F%E9%9D%A2-%E5%B1%8E%E5%B1%B1%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E4%BA%A7%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">意面&#x2F;屎山代码产生的原因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E6%9E%84-%E7%B2%BE%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">重构~精进</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">精神误区</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%89%8B%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">动手解决</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%8A%A9%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码助手</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%B8%E8%A7%84%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%91%98%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%88%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">常规项目程序员时间分解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM-%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%EF%BC%8C%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E8%BF%9B%E5%85%A5-3-0-%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM 改变软件开发模式，软件工程进入 3.0 时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E6%93%85%E9%95%BF%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85"><span class="toc-number">6.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI擅长的事情</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E5%AF%B9%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%B8%88%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI对软件工程师的影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">研发</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BC%E8%81%8C%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">兼职架构师</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B7%A8%E5%9F%9F%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">跨域架构师</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM%E6%95%88%E8%83%BD%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87%E7%9A%84%E6%AD%A3%E7%A1%AE%E5%A7%BF%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM效能提升的正确姿势</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQALE质量模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">过程质量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">结果质量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#SQALE%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F%E5%86%85%E5%9C%A8%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">SQALE度量内在质量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">落地好架构的要求</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E5%90%88%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构合理性目标</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">需求角度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非需求角度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E7%9A%845%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">持续架构的5原则</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">架构和架构师的价值</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%91%98%E6%9C%80%E9%9A%BE%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E6%8E%92%E4%BD%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">程序员最难任务排位</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%80%E7%9C%BC%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">着眼长期成本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%B6%88%E8%A7%A3%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%91%98%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B4%E7%96%BC%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何消解程序员的头疼问题？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E5%8A%9B%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">不同周期的发力方向</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%AD%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">短期</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%9C%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">榜样</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%B8%88%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工程师文化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">质量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A1%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">3.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">务实</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">3.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">效率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A9%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">革新</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2%E5%88%92%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">角色划分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%95%E4%B8%BA%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">何为工作能力？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">知无涯和能力发展</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术债（TechnicalDebts）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术债的排序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%80%BA%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术债规避举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E6%98%AF%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E4%B9%9F%E6%98%AF%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码是资产也是债务</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%88%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">圈复杂度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E8%83%BD-%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">性能 !&#x3D; 效率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E7%8E%89%E8%89%AF%E8%A8%80"><span class="toc-number">5.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金玉良言</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">回顾收尾</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%8F%E9%9D%A2-%E5%B1%8E%E5%B1%B1%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E4%BA%A7%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">意面&#x2F;屎山代码产生的原因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E6%9E%84-%E7%B2%BE%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">重构~精进</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">精神误区</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E6%89%8B%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">动手解决</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%8A%A9%E6%89%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码助手</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%B8%E8%A7%84%E9%A1%B9%E7%9B%AE%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%91%98%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%88%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">常规项目程序员时间分解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#LLM-%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%EF%BC%8C%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E8%BF%9B%E5%85%A5-3-0-%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">LLM 改变软件开发模式，软件工程进入 3.0 时代</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E6%93%85%E9%95%BF%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85"><span class="toc-number">6.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI擅长的事情</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#AI%E5%AF%B9%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%B8%88%E7%9A%84%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI对软件工程师的影响</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">6.5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">研发</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" 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diff --git "a/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\344\270\212\345\261\261\344\270\213\344\271\241.html" "b/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\344\270\212\345\261\261\344\270\213\344\271\241.html"
index 92279c582c..03f48eaf6a 100644
--- "a/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\344\270\212\345\261\261\344\270\213\344\271\241.html"
+++ "b/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\344\270\212\345\261\261\344\270\213\344\271\241.html"
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ <h3 id="去北京的机会">去北京的机会</h3>
 <h3 id="谨小慎微左右命运">谨小慎微左右命运</h3>
 <p>你以为我想去吗，到时候大队干部再去给你搞回来，说父亲是个份子，到那时候还不够丢人的，北周塆和喻老四下放一个队的周姓人家，孩子还没我大，不知怎么和队里发生口角，随口说了一句：“骑驴看唱本，走着瞧”。他的意思是，农村能待就待，不好就回城，可是他们把这句话的意思想歪了，把他扣了一个上纲上线的帽子，说他是想变天，因为他成分是地主，一个小孩弄到各生产队斗争，说是想翻天变账，想回到解放前，欺压百姓，作威作福。</p>
 <p>解放前什么样他也没见过，这不是胡说吗？当年他们全家都搬回了城，可怜那孩子，回城没工作，拉起了板车也不愿在那里受气，这就是我不敢去北京的原因。（小周后来转知青，分在供销社）</p>
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href="#%E4%BA%94%E4%B8%83%E5%B9%B2%E6%A0%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">五七干校</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%BB%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">去北京的机会</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%A8%E5%B0%8F%E6%85%8E%E5%BE%AE%E5%B7%A6%E5%8F%B3%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">谨小慎微左右命运</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" 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href="#%E4%BA%94%E4%B8%83%E5%B9%B2%E6%A0%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">五七干校</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%BB%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">去北京的机会</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%A8%E5%B0%8F%E6%85%8E%E5%BE%AE%E5%B7%A6%E5%8F%B3%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">谨小慎微左右命运</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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diff --git "a/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\347\253\245\345\271\264.html" "b/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\347\253\245\345\271\264.html"
index 6bd174c7b7..71362e963e 100644
--- "a/\346\257\215\344\272\262\345\233\236\345\277\206\345\275\225--\347\253\245\345\271\264.html"
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@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ <h2 id="文化大革命">文化大革命</h2>
 <p>文化大革命搞了整整三年，打，砸，抢也没人管，学生不升学，工厂不招工。后来小学六，七，八三个年级一块毕业，那年我六年级也毕业了（1968年结束了我的学生生涯）。初中高中三年没升学，三个年级一块毕业。</p>
 <p>三年没招工，毕业这么多学生怎么办？文化大革命三年，总结是，国民经济倒退了十年，物质非常缺乏，买东西凭票。</p>
 <p>那些吃运动饭的积极份子，我记事，也没落到好。几个人都早早的死掉了，本着实事求是，不能亏良心，亏良心的都会招报应，这是为人的宗旨。</p>
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diff --git "a/\346\257\225\344\270\232\345\215\201\345\271\264\347\233\270\350\201\232.html" "b/\346\257\225\344\270\232\345\215\201\345\271\264\347\233\270\350\201\232.html"
index 2fb38fb617..06bd06c75d 100644
--- "a/\346\257\225\344\270\232\345\215\201\345\271\264\347\233\270\350\201\232.html"
+++ "b/\346\257\225\344\270\232\345\215\201\345\271\264\347\233\270\350\201\232.html"
@@ -232,7 +232,7 @@ <h3 id="最后一晚">最后一晚</h3>
 <h3 id="展望">展望</h3>
 <p>下一个十年，大家经历的会更多，每一个人，都要学会放开，放下。(到了2025年，20年大相聚未能组织起来)</p>
 <p>不用说那么多，这篇文章，也不是为了梳理下什么总结，生活也值得记录。</p>
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@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@ <h4 id="二者是什么关系">二者是什么关系</h4>
 <p><strong>论语里有个故事</strong>：楚王打猎时丢了一把心爱的弓箭，手下们急得要回去找，而楚王说，算了吧，楚人丢了弓，反正也是被楚人捡走。手下听到楚王这么说，就认为楚王胸怀豁达，很有格局。</p>
 <p>而孔子听后说，楚王格局不够，应该说，人丢了弓，被人捡走。孔子就是从仁的角度去看这件事。</p>
 <p>而楚王则是从义的角度去看这件事。楚王要是觉得弓被秦国捡走来射自己，那楚国人一定骂自己，这种行为不会被人赞赏。所以义，是要被自己人赞赏，才能是义。所以古惑仔，土匪，要讲究一个义字，而不是仁字。它的思想理念，行为标准是更小格局的。</p>
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href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%B0%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于水的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E5%B1%B1-%E5%9C%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于山&#x2F;地的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E9%AC%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于鬼的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E5%BB%BA%E7%AD%91%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于建筑的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B9%E4%B8%8E%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">根与本的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8E%E4%BD%B3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">美人与佳人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%81%E4%B9%89%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">仁义的区别</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">二者是什么关系</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" 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href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%B0%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于水的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E5%B1%B1-%E5%9C%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于山&#x2F;地的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E9%AC%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于鬼的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E5%BB%BA%E7%AD%91%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%97"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于建筑的字</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B9%E4%B8%8E%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">根与本的区别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8E%E4%BD%B3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">美人与佳人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%81%E4%B9%89%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">仁义的区别</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%8C%E8%80%85%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">二者是什么关系</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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diff --git "a/\346\262\241\350\265\260\350\277\207\347\232\204\350\267\257\345\274\200\346\273\241\351\262\234\350\212\261.html" "b/\346\262\241\350\265\260\350\277\207\347\232\204\350\267\257\345\274\200\346\273\241\351\262\234\350\212\261.html"
index ee0d3cf9c9..98cd48a61f 100644
--- "a/\346\262\241\350\265\260\350\277\207\347\232\204\350\267\257\345\274\200\346\273\241\351\262\234\350\212\261.html"
+++ "b/\346\262\241\350\265\260\350\277\207\347\232\204\350\267\257\345\274\200\346\273\241\351\262\234\350\212\261.html"
@@ -214,7 +214,7 @@ <h2 id="没走过的路鲜花拥簇？">没走过的路鲜花拥簇？</h2>
 <p>人在二十多岁，总愿意相信一句话：生活在别处。可惜人要到很久之后才能明白，这世上并不存在传说中的“别处”，你所拥有的，也不过是你手上的这些。而你兜兜转转最终得到的，也不过是你在第一个站台错过的。</p>
 <p>人与人，各有渡口，各有归舟，相信凡所发生，皆有意义。<font color="dodgerblue">成年人最大的清醒是懂得顺势而为，既往不恋，未来不迎，当下不杂</font>。</p>
 <p>永远不要美化那条没有走过的路，当下就是最优解，而未来的路又取决于你当下是否走好。</p>
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diff --git "a/\346\262\271\350\205\273\347\232\204\345\221\250\350\221\243.html" "b/\346\262\271\350\205\273\347\232\204\345\221\250\350\221\243.html"
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@@ -213,7 +213,7 @@ <h2 id="为什么产出会下降">为什么产出会下降</h2>
 <p>音乐人还是要有表达欲，<font color="dodgerblue">创作者都是我手写我心，写自己当前最真实，最想表达的状态，人家这几年就是安享美满家庭，享受甜甜爱情，没有那么多大风大浪，写点情歌咋了</font>，只是<font color="blur">部分歌迷还停留在过去的生活状态</font><u>或者是旧歌新俘虏的年轻人</u>。当然如果没什么想和歌迷交流，没什么想要说出来，也无需硬拗，周董这种风格眼见将是常态，被新生代年轻偶像替代自是当然，不妨碍其历史成就。</p>
 <h2 id="后记">后记</h2>
 <p>记这篇内容，主要是出于学习第三章中别人对这种现象的表达，从娱乐圈类推其它行业圈其实又有很多相似之处，借用能量密度这个概念可以。</p>
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diff --git "a/\346\265\252\346\275\256\344\271\213\345\267\205NVIDIA.html" "b/\346\265\252\346\275\256\344\271\213\345\267\205NVIDIA.html"
index 6acc66ead6..408ec36baf 100644
--- "a/\346\265\252\346\275\256\344\271\213\345\267\205NVIDIA.html"
+++ "b/\346\265\252\346\275\256\344\271\213\345\267\205NVIDIA.html"
@@ -864,7 +864,7 @@ <h3 id="在竞争中寻找新的增长点">在竞争中寻找新的增长点</h3
 </blockquote>
 <p>国外厂商中，Marvell、英特尔、AMD均研发了DPU或DPU的对位产品，国内亦涌现出一批DPU初创企业。</p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">泡泡网 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.pcpop.com/article/521833_all.shtml">DirectX支配游戏！历代GPU架构全解析</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sohu.com/a/724792815_116132">在诉讼与骂名中崛起的英伟达GPU</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">搜狐 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.sohu.com/a/156178300_793365">GPU/CPU/DSP有什么区别</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1747544421380905146">英伟达的“反脆弱”式崛起</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:5"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">5.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">英伟达 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://blogs.nvidia.cn/2016/08/15/first-ai-supercomputer-openai-elon-musk-deep-learning/">单机箱人工智能超级计算机赠予 OpenAI</a><a href="#fnref:5" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:6"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">6.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知乎 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/669262197">CUDA是什么？以及GPU 与 CPU 性能对比：代码矩阵乘法示例</a><a href="#fnref:6" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:7"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">7.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">Cornell University康乃尔大学 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://cvw.cac.cornell.edu/gpu-architecture">Roadmap: Understanding GPU Architecture</a><a href="#fnref:7" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:8"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">8.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">新浪 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://finance.sina.cn/tech/2023-04-04/detail-imypcumv3190827.d.html">NVIDIA正在“垄断”AI！</a><a href="#fnref:8" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:9"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">9.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">百家号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1588032016265909716">Tensor Core有多牛</a><a href="#fnref:9" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img 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class="title">电子游戏史话</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从&quot;刺头&quot;到巨头</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">命运的齿轮</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%B1%A5%E5%8E%86"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成长履历</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E7%AB%8BNVIDIA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创立NVIDIA</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">CPU vs GPU</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8vs%E4%B8%93%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通用vs专用</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E6%95%B0%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">核数差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结来看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC-%E4%B8%93%E4%B8%9A%E6%BC%94%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">成本+专业演进</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8F%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E6%AF%94%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%A4%A7%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E4%BE%BF%E5%AE%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">两个小芯片比一个大芯片便宜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%93%E4%B8%9A%E4%B9%8B%E9%81%93%EF%BC%8C%E6%83%9F%E7%B2%BE%E6%83%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">专业之道，惟精惟一</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">独立GPU的催化剂-DirectX</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX7%EF%BC%9A%E5%82%AC%E5%8C%96%E5%89%82%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%B4%E7%95%8C%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX7：催化剂的临界点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX8%EF%BC%9ACPU%E5%92%8CGPU%E5%BD%BB%E5%BA%95%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX8：CPU和GPU彻底分离</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX%E7%9A%84%E5%90%8E%E7%BB%AD%E5%AC%97%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX的后续嬗变</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E6%B8%B2%E6%9F%93Milestone"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">统一渲染Milestone</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90%E9%BD%BF%E8%BD%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E8%BD%AC%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">命运齿轮的再次转动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX10%E5%BC%95%E5%AF%BC%E4%BA%86CUDA"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX10引导了CUDA</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC%EF%BC%9AMicrosoft"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的大佬：Microsoft</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%8E%E4%BD%9C%E7%89%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">土地与作物</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">与各位大佬Battle</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86%E5%88%B0%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%8D%E8%BE%B1%E8%B4%9F%E9%87%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">意识到错误，忍辱负重</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%A3%E9%92%B1%E5%98%9B%EF%BC%8C%E8%B7%AA%E7%9D%80%E5%BE%88%E5%B8%B8%E8%A7%81"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">挣钱嘛，跪着很常见</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#AMD%E6%94%B6%E8%B4%ADATI%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8A%E6%8E%89%E9%A6%85%E9%A5%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AMD收购ATI，天上掉馅饼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Intel-vs-Nvidia%E4%BA%8C%E8%8B%B1%E6%89%AD%E6%89%93%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Intel vs Nvidia二英扭打起来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Intel%E4%BF%9D%E5%AE%88%E5%9D%A0%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Intel保守坠落</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">市值对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BAbattle%E4%B8%89%E6%98%9F%E9%AB%98%E9%80%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动市场battle三星高通</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">一路走来的经营感悟</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%84%86%E5%BC%B1%E5%8C%96%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反脆弱化生存</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%BB%E4%B8%8B%E5%8E%BB-rightarrow-%E7%AB%99%E7%9D%80%E6%8C%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">活下去 $\rightarrow$ 站着挣</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">另拓生态求生</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E5%88%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">任务分解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#GPU%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">GPU技术通用化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E4%B9%8B%E5%89%8D%E8%B7%AF%E4%BA%A6%E9%9A%BE%E8%B5%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成功之前路亦难走</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%83%98%E6%89%98%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件烘托硬件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%9A%E5%AE%88%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">坚守与创新</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Numpy%E4%B8%8ETensor%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">7.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Numpy与Tensor的应用区别</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI浪潮</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2012-%E5%A5%A0%E5%9F%BA%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2012-奠基年</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%98%E8%83%9C%E5%87%BA%E5%87%BB%EF%BC%8C%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E7%BE%A4%E6%98%9F%E9%97%AA%E8%80%80"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">乘胜出击，人类群星闪耀</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%86%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E5%92%8C%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AA%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为了计算和人类的未来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%BA%A2%E5%88%A9%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国的人口红利创新</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">遥遥领先</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95GPU%E9%A2%86%E5%85%88%E4%B8%80%E4%BC%97%E4%B8%93%E7%94%A8%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何GPU领先一众专用解决方案</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%81%E8%87%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%86%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">9.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">极致的将来</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%B6%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E5%8E%BB%E5%8D%B7%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大家怎么不去卷它</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8C%E4%B8%BA%E6%98%BE%E5%8D%A1%E5%8E%82%E5%95%86%EF%BC%8CAMD%E6%9C%89%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E8%A7%A3%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">同为显卡厂商，AMD有没有解法？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%B6%E5%91%A2"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它玩家呢</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A3%8E%E5%85%89%E6%97%A0%E9%99%90%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">风光无限好</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%86%E6%8A%A4%E5%9F%8E%E6%B2%B3%E5%B9%B6%E9%9D%9EGPU%E6%9C%AC%E8%BA%AB%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E6%98%AF%E5%9C%A8%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">9.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">但护城河并非GPU本身，而是在软件部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E9%A3%8E%E5%85%89%E5%A4%9A%E4%B9%85%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%AA%E7%9F%A5%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">能风光多久，还是一个未知数</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">寄语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%84%86%E5%BC%B1%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反脆弱生存</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">10.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反面的代表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E4%B8%AD%E5%AF%BB%E6%89%BE%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">10.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">在竞争中寻找新的增长点</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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class="title">电子游戏史话</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从&quot;刺头&quot;到巨头</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">命运的齿轮</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E5%B1%A5%E5%8E%86"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">成长履历</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E7%AB%8BNVIDIA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创立NVIDIA</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">CPU vs GPU</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8vs%E4%B8%93%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">通用vs专用</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E6%95%B0%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">核数差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结来看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC-%E4%B8%93%E4%B8%9A%E6%BC%94%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">成本+专业演进</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8F%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E6%AF%94%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%A4%A7%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E4%BE%BF%E5%AE%9C"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">两个小芯片比一个大芯片便宜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%93%E4%B8%9A%E4%B9%8B%E9%81%93%EF%BC%8C%E6%83%9F%E7%B2%BE%E6%83%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">专业之道，惟精惟一</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">独立GPU的催化剂-DirectX</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX7%EF%BC%9A%E5%82%AC%E5%8C%96%E5%89%82%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%B4%E7%95%8C%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX7：催化剂的临界点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX8%EF%BC%9ACPU%E5%92%8CGPU%E5%BD%BB%E5%BA%95%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX8：CPU和GPU彻底分离</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX%E7%9A%84%E5%90%8E%E7%BB%AD%E5%AC%97%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX的后续嬗变</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E6%B8%B2%E6%9F%93Milestone"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">统一渲染Milestone</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90%E9%BD%BF%E8%BD%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E8%BD%AC%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">命运齿轮的再次转动</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#DX10%E5%BC%95%E5%AF%BC%E4%BA%86CUDA"><span class="toc-number">4.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">DX10引导了CUDA</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC%EF%BC%9AMicrosoft"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的大佬：Microsoft</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%8E%E4%BD%9C%E7%89%A9"><span class="toc-number">4.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">土地与作物</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">与各位大佬Battle</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86%E5%88%B0%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%8D%E8%BE%B1%E8%B4%9F%E9%87%8D"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">意识到错误，忍辱负重</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%A3%E9%92%B1%E5%98%9B%EF%BC%8C%E8%B7%AA%E7%9D%80%E5%BE%88%E5%B8%B8%E8%A7%81"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">挣钱嘛，跪着很常见</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#AMD%E6%94%B6%E8%B4%ADATI%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8A%E6%8E%89%E9%A6%85%E9%A5%BC"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">AMD收购ATI，天上掉馅饼</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#Intel-vs-Nvidia%E4%BA%8C%E8%8B%B1%E6%89%AD%E6%89%93%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">Intel vs Nvidia二英扭打起来</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Intel%E4%BF%9D%E5%AE%88%E5%9D%A0%E8%90%BD"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Intel保守坠落</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">5.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">市值对比</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%BB%E5%8A%A8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BAbattle%E4%B8%89%E6%98%9F%E9%AB%98%E9%80%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">移动市场battle三星高通</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">一路走来的经营感悟</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%84%86%E5%BC%B1%E5%8C%96%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反脆弱化生存</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%BB%E4%B8%8B%E5%8E%BB-rightarrow-%E7%AB%99%E7%9D%80%E6%8C%A3"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">活下去 $\rightarrow$ 站着挣</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">另拓生态求生</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E5%88%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">任务分解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#GPU%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">GPU技术通用化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E4%B9%8B%E5%89%8D%E8%B7%AF%E4%BA%A6%E9%9A%BE%E8%B5%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">成功之前路亦难走</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%83%98%E6%89%98%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件烘托硬件</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%9A%E5%AE%88%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">坚守与创新</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#Numpy%E4%B8%8ETensor%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">7.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">Numpy与Tensor的应用区别</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">AI浪潮</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#2012-%E5%A5%A0%E5%9F%BA%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">2012-奠基年</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%98%E8%83%9C%E5%87%BA%E5%87%BB%EF%BC%8C%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E7%BE%A4%E6%98%9F%E9%97%AA%E8%80%80"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">乘胜出击，人类群星闪耀</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%86%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E5%92%8C%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AA%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">8.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为了计算和人类的未来</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%BA%A2%E5%88%A9%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">8.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国的人口红利创新</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">遥遥领先</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95GPU%E9%A2%86%E5%85%88%E4%B8%80%E4%BC%97%E4%B8%93%E7%94%A8%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何GPU领先一众专用解决方案</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%81%E8%87%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%86%E6%9D%A5"><span class="toc-number">9.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">极致的将来</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%B6%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E5%8E%BB%E5%8D%B7%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大家怎么不去卷它</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8C%E4%B8%BA%E6%98%BE%E5%8D%A1%E5%8E%82%E5%95%86%EF%BC%8CAMD%E6%9C%89%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E8%A7%A3%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">9.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">同为显卡厂商，AMD有没有解法？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%B6%E5%91%A2"><span class="toc-number">9.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它玩家呢</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A3%8E%E5%85%89%E6%97%A0%E9%99%90%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">风光无限好</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%86%E6%8A%A4%E5%9F%8E%E6%B2%B3%E5%B9%B6%E9%9D%9EGPU%E6%9C%AC%E8%BA%AB%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E6%98%AF%E5%9C%A8%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">9.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">但护城河并非GPU本身，而是在软件部分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E9%A3%8E%E5%85%89%E5%A4%9A%E4%B9%85%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%AA%E7%9F%A5%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">9.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">能风光多久，还是一个未知数</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">寄语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%84%86%E5%BC%B1%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反脆弱生存</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">10.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反面的代表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E4%B8%AD%E5%AF%BB%E6%89%BE%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">10.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">在竞争中寻找新的增长点</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i 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diff --git "a/\346\267\261\345\272\246\345\205\263\347\263\273\344\270\216\347\262\276\347\245\236\350\265\204\346\272\220.html" "b/\346\267\261\345\272\246\345\205\263\347\263\273\344\270\216\347\262\276\347\245\236\350\265\204\346\272\220.html"
index 285d56a2f7..906b30c1ae 100644
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@@ -302,7 +302,7 @@ <h3 id="乔布斯的三个女人">乔布斯的三个女人</h3>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>个人看法存在感是动态的，跟环境有关，但内核稳定，就像一个人价值观稳定，除非受什么强刺激</p>
 <p>你的存在感是什么？此时我在问自己，总结清楚后，或许我会补充到文章上</p>
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class="title">带蛤蟆先生看心理医生</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%AF%87-%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一篇-深度关系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%B0%E5%87%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通与杰出</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B1%E6%B5%85%E8%BF%9C%E8%BF%91"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">深浅远近</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E7%AF%87-%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二篇-精神资源</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5%E7%9A%84%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭注入的精神</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%89%E4%BD%93%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小说三体的例子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">分层视角来看人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E6%84%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">存在感</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8A%E7%96%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">释疑</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2%E6%A1%86%E6%9E%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">角色框架</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源结构</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%94%E5%B8%83%E6%96%AF%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">乔布斯的三个女人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" 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<span class="toc-text">第一篇-深度关系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%B0%E5%87%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通与杰出</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B7%B1%E6%B5%85%E8%BF%9C%E8%BF%91"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">深浅远近</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E7%AF%87-%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二篇-精神资源</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%B3%A8%E5%85%A5%E7%9A%84%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭注入的精神</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%89%E4%BD%93%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小说三体的例子</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%92%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">分层视角来看人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E6%84%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">存在感</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8A%E7%96%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">释疑</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2%E6%A1%86%E6%9E%B6"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">角色框架</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资源结构</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%94%E5%B8%83%E6%96%AF%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%A5%B3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">乔布斯的三个女人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" 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class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E4%B8%AA%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90-%E5%8C%85%E5%AE%B9%E5%92%8C%E6%8E%92%E6%8C%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">三个孩子-包容和排挤</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%8A%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%AF%E5%AD%90%E8%A3%85%E6%BB%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">把孩子的杯子装满</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">公平？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E6%AF%8D%E8%BA%AB%E5%BF%83%E7%96%B2%E6%83%AB%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%8A%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母身心疲惫怎么办？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%83%E8%A8%80%E4%B8%87%E8%AF%AD%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%A5%E8%AF%9D"><span 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class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开门见山</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%9A%E7%84%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">聚焦</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%B8%93%E6%B3%A8%E6%9D%A5%E6%8D%A2%E5%8F%96%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%EF%BC%8C%E8%B5%A2%E5%BE%97%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">用专注来换取效率，赢得差异性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%BF%E5%BA%A6%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E6%98%AF%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%89%AF%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">广度知识是深度研究的副产品</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5-python-%E4%B8%8D%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E8%87%AA%E5%A2%9E"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span 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src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="三国人物年龄与杂记"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记">三国人物年龄与杂记</a><time datetime="2025-11-15T14:54:47.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-15 22:54:47">2025-11-15</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20251030182602.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="IT系统安全方案导论"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/IT%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%AF%BC%E8%AE%BA.html" title="IT系统安全方案导论">IT系统安全方案导论</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:49:32.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:49:32">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20210611202855.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="教育改变命运"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E5%91%BD%E8%BF%90.html" title="教育改变命运">教育改变命运</a><time datetime="2025-11-11T07:31:15.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-11 15:31:15">2025-11-11</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%86%85%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AF%8C%E8%A3%95.html" title="内循环与共同富裕"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20211108172114.png" 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@@ -307,7 +307,7 @@ <h4 id="加点央行壁上观">加点央行壁上观</h4>
 <h4 id="高线城市高高在上">高线城市高高在上</h4>
 <p>当然<font color="tomato">也有城市首套房贷利率下限与全国下限不一致</font>。拿北京来说，从房贷利率“换锚”伊始，就在全国政策<font color="tomato">下限LPR的基础上“因城施策”加了55个基点</font>。如你当时在北京正赶上信贷供给偏紧、利率走高，合同利率签订为LPR加135个基点。这次则可和银行协商，最多可降低的加点幅度是80个基点，降到签订合同当年北京首套房贷利率政策下限，即LPR加55个基点，sigh！</p>
 <p><font color="dodgerblue">幸哉无需客户申请，是本次的效率之举</font>。真是个人自发去跟银行协商，那银行的柜面文书工作都得忙死。</p>
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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#MBS%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">MBS资产证券化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5%E4%B9%A6%E9%9D%A2%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%86%8D%E8%AE%B2%E4%B8%80%E9%81%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以书面风格再讲一遍</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%80%E5%80%BC%E6%B3%95%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">净值法银行理财</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E5%9B%9E%E6%92%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">估值大幅回撤</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E5%AD%98%E9%87%8F%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%B7%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">调整存量房贷利率</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#23-8-31%E5%BC%BA%E5%8A%9B%E9%9D%B4%E5%AD%90%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">23.8.31强力靴子落地</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E5%AF%B9%E7%A7%B0%E5%90%8A%E8%AF%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非对称吊诡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E9%87%8F%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%B7%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">存量房贷利率政策</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A0%E7%82%B9%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E5%A3%81%E4%B8%8A%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">加点央行壁上观</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%BF%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%AB%98%E9%AB%98%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高线城市高高在上</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#MBS%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">MBS资产证券化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5%E4%B9%A6%E9%9D%A2%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%86%8D%E8%AE%B2%E4%B8%80%E9%81%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以书面风格再讲一遍</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%80%E5%80%BC%E6%B3%95%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">净值法银行理财</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E5%9B%9E%E6%92%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">估值大幅回撤</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B0%83%E6%95%B4%E5%AD%98%E9%87%8F%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%B7%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">调整存量房贷利率</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#23-8-31%E5%BC%BA%E5%8A%9B%E9%9D%B4%E5%AD%90%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">23.8.31强力靴子落地</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E5%AF%B9%E7%A7%B0%E5%90%8A%E8%AF%A1"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非对称吊诡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%98%E9%87%8F%E6%88%BF%E8%B4%B7%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">存量房贷利率政策</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A0%E7%82%B9%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E5%A3%81%E4%B8%8A%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">加点央行壁上观</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%BA%BF%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%AB%98%E9%AB%98%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%8A"><span class="toc-number">4.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高线城市高高在上</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a 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diff --git "a/\347\224\237\346\264\273\345\245\275\347\234\213\345\220\227.html" "b/\347\224\237\346\264\273\345\245\275\347\234\213\345\220\227.html"
index 846eb42397..315b406a2a 100644
--- "a/\347\224\237\346\264\273\345\245\275\347\234\213\345\220\227.html"
+++ "b/\347\224\237\346\264\273\345\245\275\347\234\213\345\220\227.html"
@@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ <h3 id="用视频表达更形象">用视频表达更形象</h3>
 <p>可惜抖音视频都有防盗链，引入进来用不了多久就失效了</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://v.douyin.com/ieVTWDuU/">视频传送门</a></p>
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diff --git "a/\347\224\250\346\210\267\346\200\235\347\273\264.html" "b/\347\224\250\346\210\267\346\200\235\347\273\264.html"
index 8154f58f6b..12a3293970 100644
--- "a/\347\224\250\346\210\267\346\200\235\347\273\264.html"
+++ "b/\347\224\250\346\210\267\346\200\235\347\273\264.html"
@@ -318,7 +318,7 @@ <h1>内省归纳</h1>
 </blockquote>
 <h1>后记</h1>
 <p>这篇的主要触发点还是最近听的一堂电子课，用户思维，兼具一些梁宁的内容，与几年前的产品意识，是一种呼应。现在的自己写东西可能会更加精简，一些激情式的表达更加少见了。</p>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要的不是产品</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-blur-%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E6%98%AF%E6%89%93%E9%80%A0%E5%8D%93%E8%B6%8A%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0%E7%9A%84%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7-font"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要的是打造卓越表现的用户</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B4%E6%9C%9B%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">渴望营造</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E8%A7%86%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">重视情绪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户本质的心理诉求</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">需求怎么看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-blur-%E7%97%9B%E7%82%B9-font"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">痛点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%BD%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">爽点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%97%92%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">痒点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%87%E7%A9%BA%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">升空来看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">打造产品的过程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF%E9%87%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%A3%E7%A2%91%E4%B8%8E%E6%97%B6%E5%B0%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA%E6%8F%90%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">误区提醒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">内省归纳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要的不是产品</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-blur-%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E6%98%AF%E6%89%93%E9%80%A0%E5%8D%93%E8%B6%8A%E8%A1%A8%E7%8E%B0%E7%9A%84%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7-font"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要的是打造卓越表现的用户</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B4%E6%9C%9B%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">渴望营造</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E8%A7%86%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">重视情绪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">用户本质的心理诉求</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">需求怎么看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#font-color-blur-%E7%97%9B%E7%82%B9-font"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">痛点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%BD%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">爽点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%97%92%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">痒点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%87%E7%A9%BA%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">升空来看</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">打造产品的过程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%90%A5%E9%80%A0%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93%E8%B6%8B%E5%8A%BF%E9%87%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%A3%E7%A2%91%E4%B8%8E%E6%97%B6%E5%B0%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">营造群体趋势里的口碑与时尚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA%E6%8F%90%E9%86%92"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">误区提醒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">内省归纳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏发展史</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E7%94%B5%E8%84%91%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一个电脑游戏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E4%B8%BB%E6%9C%BA%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一个主机游戏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84Odyssey"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">商业化的Odyssey</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AC%E7%AB%8B%E7%AB%A0-%E4%B8%BB%E6%9C%BA%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">独立章-主机篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%97%E6%9C%BA%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%9E%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">街机游戏的诞生</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E6%80%9D%E8%AE%AE%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不可思议的成功</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E7%94%A8%E6%9C%BA%E5%AE%87%E5%AE%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家用机宇宙</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%A4%A9%E5%A0%82%E5%92%8C%E3%80%8A%E5%A4%A7%E9%87%91%E5%88%9A%E3%80%8B-%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%99%BB%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">任天堂和《大金刚》-- 日本登场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E5%98%89%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%BA%E7%8C%AC%E7%B4%A2%E5%B0%BC%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">世嘉与刺猬索尼克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BC%97%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%BC%80%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一众历史开创作品</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B4%A2%E5%B0%BCPS%E9%80%BC%E4%B8%8A%E6%A2%81%E5%B1%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">索尼PS逼上梁山</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E5%98%89%E9%A2%86%E5%85%88%E6%88%90%E5%85%88%E7%83%88"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">世嘉领先成先烈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E8%BD%AF%E6%B0%94%E7%B2%97"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">微软气粗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%A4%A9%E5%A0%82%E4%BD%93%E6%84%9F%E9%80%86%E8%A2%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">任天堂体感逆袭</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E6%9C%BA%E5%B1%B1%E5%AF%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主机山寨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%A6%81%E4%BB%A4"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏禁令</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%99%E4%BE%A0-%E6%AD%A6%E4%BE%A0%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">仙侠&#x2F;武侠原创</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E8%90%A5%E5%8F%91%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">运营发力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B7%E6%AD%A5%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">起步差距</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E5%9F%B9%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才培养</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业数据</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8C%E7%A8%8B%E7%A2%91%E6%89%8B%E6%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">里程碑手游</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82%E5%8F%8A%E5%AF%B9%E5%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏玩家，心理诉求及对应的游戏行为</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好的一面</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8C%E7%A8%8B%E7%A2%91%E6%89%8B%E6%B8%B8%E7%9C%8B%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">里程碑手游看竞争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E8%8D%AF%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">农药传说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8-%E5%8E%9F%E7%A5%9E%EF%BC%88%E8%B5%9B%E5%B0%94%E8%BE%BE%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新的变动-原神（赛尔达传说）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E7%A5%9E%E4%B8%8D%E8%81%94%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">原神不联机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E7%B1%B3%E5%93%88%E6%B8%B8%E4%B8%8E%E5%8E%9F%E7%A5%9E"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">解读米哈游与原神</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B4%A9%E5%9D%8F3%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E6%8C%A3%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E9%92%B1%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.2.1.</span> <span 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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏发展史</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E7%94%B5%E8%84%91%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一个电脑游戏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E4%B8%BB%E6%9C%BA%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一个主机游戏</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84Odyssey"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">商业化的Odyssey</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AC%E7%AB%8B%E7%AB%A0-%E4%B8%BB%E6%9C%BA%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">独立章-主机篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%97%E6%9C%BA%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%9A%84%E8%AF%9E%E7%94%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">街机游戏的诞生</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E6%80%9D%E8%AE%AE%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不可思议的成功</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E7%94%A8%E6%9C%BA%E5%AE%87%E5%AE%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家用机宇宙</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%A4%A9%E5%A0%82%E5%92%8C%E3%80%8A%E5%A4%A7%E9%87%91%E5%88%9A%E3%80%8B-%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%99%BB%E5%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">任天堂和《大金刚》-- 日本登场</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E5%98%89%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%BA%E7%8C%AC%E7%B4%A2%E5%B0%BC%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">世嘉与刺猬索尼克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E4%BC%97%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%BC%80%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">一众历史开创作品</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B4%A2%E5%B0%BCPS%E9%80%BC%E4%B8%8A%E6%A2%81%E5%B1%B1"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">索尼PS逼上梁山</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E5%98%89%E9%A2%86%E5%85%88%E6%88%90%E5%85%88%E7%83%88"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">世嘉领先成先烈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%AE%E8%BD%AF%E6%B0%94%E7%B2%97"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">微软气粗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%A4%A9%E5%A0%82%E4%BD%93%E6%84%9F%E9%80%86%E8%A2%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.2.2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">任天堂体感逆袭</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">1.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E6%9C%BA%E5%B1%B1%E5%AF%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">主机山寨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%A6%81%E4%BB%A4"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏禁令</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%99%E4%BE%A0-%E6%AD%A6%E4%BE%A0%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">仙侠&#x2F;武侠原创</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E8%90%A5%E5%8F%91%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">运营发力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%B7%E6%AD%A5%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">起步差距</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E5%9F%B9%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才培养</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">产业数据</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8C%E7%A8%8B%E7%A2%91%E6%89%8B%E6%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">里程碑手游</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E7%8E%A9%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E8%AF%89%E6%B1%82%E5%8F%8A%E5%AF%B9%E5%BA%94%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">游戏玩家，心理诉求及对应的游戏行为</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好的一面</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8C%E7%A8%8B%E7%A2%91%E6%89%8B%E6%B8%B8%E7%9C%8B%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">里程碑手游看竞争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%9C%E8%8D%AF%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">农药传说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8-%E5%8E%9F%E7%A5%9E%EF%BC%88%E8%B5%9B%E5%B0%94%E8%BE%BE%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">新的变动-原神（赛尔达传说）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E7%A5%9E%E4%B8%8D%E8%81%94%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">原神不联机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E7%B1%B3%E5%93%88%E6%B8%B8%E4%B8%8E%E5%8E%9F%E7%A5%9E"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">解读米哈游与原神</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B4%A9%E5%9D%8F3%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E6%8C%A3%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E9%92%B1%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.2.1.</span> <span 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diff --git "a/\347\233\270\347\210\261\347\233\270\346\235\200--\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\271\266\350\264\255\344\270\255\345\233\242\351\230\237\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\247\202\345\257\237.html" "b/\347\233\270\347\210\261\347\233\270\346\235\200--\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\271\266\350\264\255\344\270\255\345\233\242\351\230\237\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\247\202\345\257\237.html"
index 3d2af105ea..ee5dbe8704 100644
--- "a/\347\233\270\347\210\261\347\233\270\346\235\200--\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\271\266\350\264\255\344\270\255\345\233\242\351\230\237\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\247\202\345\257\237.html"
+++ "b/\347\233\270\347\210\261\347\233\270\346\235\200--\344\274\201\344\270\232\345\271\266\350\264\255\344\270\255\345\233\242\351\230\237\347\256\241\347\220\206\350\247\202\345\257\237.html"
@@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ <h3 id="文化留人有那么重要么">文化留人有那么重要么</h3>
 <li>信息共享</li>
 </ol>
 <p>也许还有更多，文化对于较好的人员留存有较大影响比重，经营一家伟大的企业需要重视。</p>
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<span class="toc-text">选好人 – 消除负面弱刺激</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E5%AF%B9%E4%BA%BA-%E2%80%93-%E4%BF%9D%E6%8C%81%E5%BB%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用对人 – 保持建制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%95%99%E4%BD%8F%E4%BA%BA-%E2%80%93-%E5%88%A9%E8%AF%B1%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E9%AA%A8%E5%B9%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">留住人 – 利诱核心骨干</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%97%E8%84%91-%E2%80%93-%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%8D%E5%BC%B1%E5%88%BA%E6%BF%80"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">洗脑 – 重复弱刺激</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AA%81%E5%A6%82%E5%85%B6%E6%9D%A5%E7%9A%84%E5%B9%B6%E8%B4%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">突如其来的并购</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%A9%E6%95%88%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E9%9C%80%E4%BF%9D%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">绩效的产出需保持组织稳定</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%89%E5%A5%BD%E4%BA%BA-%E2%80%93-%E6%B6%88%E9%99%A4%E8%B4%9F%E9%9D%A2%E5%BC%B1%E5%88%BA%E6%BF%80"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">选好人 – 消除负面弱刺激</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E5%AF%B9%E4%BA%BA-%E2%80%93-%E4%BF%9D%E6%8C%81%E5%BB%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用对人 – 保持建制</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%95%99%E4%BD%8F%E4%BA%BA-%E2%80%93-%E5%88%A9%E8%AF%B1%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E9%AA%A8%E5%B9%B2"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">留住人 – 利诱核心骨干</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B4%97%E8%84%91-%E2%80%93-%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%8D%E5%BC%B1%E5%88%BA%E6%BF%80"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">洗脑 – 重复弱刺激</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E6%8D%A2%E4%BD%8D%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理并不需要换位思考</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E7%95%99%E4%BA%BA%E6%9C%89%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化留人有那么重要么</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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diff --git "a/\347\240\224\345\217\221\346\225\210\350\203\275\346\214\207\346\240\207.html" "b/\347\240\224\345\217\221\346\225\210\350\203\275\346\214\207\346\240\207.html"
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@@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ <h1>后记</h1>
 <p><strong>单点能力的效能工具收益会随着时间逐渐递减</strong>，企业需要从更高视角对研发效能一体化平台进行整体规划的能力。</p>
 <p><font color="blue">敏捷在说什么事？以流动效率为核心，提升团队的持续交付能力</font></p>
 <p><font color="blue">更关键的是：以长期质量为核心，沉淀优秀软件资产和工程能力，助力敏捷</font></p>
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class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目的</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%84%E4%BC%B0%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6%E5%8A%A9%E6%8E%A8%E6%94%B9%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">评估现状助推改进</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">指标点体系</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%87%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%AF%E5%8C%BA%E6%8C%87%E6%A0%87"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">片面误区指标</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E4%BF%9D%E8%AF%81%EF%BC%88Better%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">质量保证（Better）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">测试</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">生产异常</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%8F%E6%8D%B7%E4%BA%A4%E4%BB%98%EF%BC%88Faster%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">敏捷交付（Faster）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%AF%E5%8E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">积压</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%84%E6%A8%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">规模</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%EF%BC%88More-Effcient%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术工程（More Effcient）</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开发</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95-2"><span 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@@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ <h2 id="为自己转身">为自己转身</h2>
 <p><strong>祛魅的好处显而易见，它让你拨开客体迷障，睁开火眼金睛</strong>，谁是绣花枕头，哪儿是草台班子。<font color="dodgerblue">需要祛魅的是那些消耗自己的事物，而不是理想和远方。优秀美好的事物，不是拿来祛魅的，而是让人看到更多可能</font>。</p>
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diff --git "a/\347\251\267\346\237\245\347\220\206\345\256\235\345\205\270.html" "b/\347\251\267\346\237\245\347\220\206\345\256\235\345\205\270.html"
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@@ -437,7 +437,7 @@ <h2 id="人一生只需要富一次">人一生只需要富一次</h2>
 <h2 id="贫穷的本质">贫穷的本质</h2>
 <p>贫穷的本质不是懒惰，而是无效努力和错误决策的结果。人的任务，不是看清楚远处模糊的东西，而是去做好身边清楚的事。</p>
 <p>凡事往简单处想，往认真处行。人生重要的机会不需要太多，一两次就够了。为什么要着急？明智的人能耐心等待，让时间流逝，体会其中的妙处，大多数人总是瞎忙活…</p>
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id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8A%92%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E3%80%81%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E5%92%8C%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">芒格的生活、学习和决策方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E5%85%83%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">多元思维模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%B7%E5%8F%96%E8%B7%A8%E5%AD%A6%E7%A7%91%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">获取跨学科的知识</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%BF%87%E6%9D%A5%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">反过来想</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E6%9F%A5%E4%B8%8E%E6%89%B9%E8%AF%84"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">核查与批评</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%87%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">好奇心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E4%B8%96%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E6%99%BA%E6%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">普世基本的智慧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8B%E7%86%99%E7%86%99"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">天下熙熙</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AF%E8%A7%86%E5%8C%96%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">可视化沟通</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BE%E5%87%86%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF%E9%9A%BE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">找准优势规避难题</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E6%98%AF%E9%9D%9E%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济学是非完美的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3%E6%98%AF%E4%B9%8C%E6%89%98%E9%82%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">公平是乌托邦</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">生活是什么</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E5%AB%89%E5%A6%92"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免嫉妒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E9%80%8F%E6%94%AF%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免透支收入</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%8E%E5%A3%AB%E6%AF%94%E4%BA%9A%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">莎士比亚的不同</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E8%AF%A5%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">应该投资什么样的企业</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E7%A7%80%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优秀企业是什么</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%94%9F%E6%84%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">好生意的代表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%80%85%E5%BE%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">1.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理者很重要</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">现实思维的思考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E6%B5%8B%E7%AE%97"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">市场测算</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E5%88%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标分解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%89%93%E9%80%A0%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E7%9A%87%E5%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何打造产品皇座</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%A1%8D%E7%94%9F%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">1.6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融衍生品</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E5%B7%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F%E5%92%8C%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">老巴的投资风格画像和建议</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A0%E6%8A%98%E8%85%BE%E8%B5%9A%E9%92%B1%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E9%9D%A0%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%98%E8%85%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">靠折腾赚钱，还是靠不折腾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E9%87%8D%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%9C%88"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">看重自己的能力圈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E5%88%86%E6%95%A3%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">对分散投资的看法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E5%9D%8F%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">拥抱坏消息</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E8%AF%AF%E5%88%A4%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类误判心理学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%80%E8%87%B4%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免不一致倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E5%88%A9%EF%BC%88%E5%9B%9E%E9%A6%88%EF%BC%89%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">互利（回馈）倾向</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%92%E7%BB%9D-%E9%80%80%E8%AE%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">拒绝-退让</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E8%81%94%E6%83%B3%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">简单联想倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E8%A7%86%E8%BF%87%E9%AB%98%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自视过高倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A2%AB%E5%89%A5%E5%A4%BA%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">被剥夺超级反应倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%BC%97%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">从众倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">对比错误反应倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E8%A1%A1%E9%87%8F%E6%98%93%E5%BE%97%E6%80%A7%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">错误衡量易得性倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E5%90%91%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%AD%A6%E5%81%B7%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">应向工程学偷师</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%80%E7%94%9F%E5%8F%AA%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E5%AF%8C%E4%B8%80%E6%AC%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人一生只需要富一次</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">贫穷的本质</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8A%92%E6%A0%BC%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E3%80%81%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E5%92%8C%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">芒格的生活、学习和决策方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E5%85%83%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">多元思维模型</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%B7%E5%8F%96%E8%B7%A8%E5%AD%A6%E7%A7%91%E7%9A%84%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">获取跨学科的知识</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%BF%87%E6%9D%A5%E6%83%B3"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">反过来想</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E6%9F%A5%E4%B8%8E%E6%89%B9%E8%AF%84"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">核查与批评</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%87%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">1.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">好奇心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E4%B8%96%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E6%99%BA%E6%85%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">普世基本的智慧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8B%E7%86%99%E7%86%99"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">天下熙熙</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AF%E8%A7%86%E5%8C%96%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">可视化沟通</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%BE%E5%87%86%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E8%A7%84%E9%81%BF%E9%9A%BE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">1.1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">找准优势规避难题</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E6%98%AF%E9%9D%9E%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">经济学是非完美的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3%E6%98%AF%E4%B9%8C%E6%89%98%E9%82%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">公平是乌托邦</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">生活是什么</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E5%AB%89%E5%A6%92"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免嫉妒</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E9%80%8F%E6%94%AF%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免透支收入</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%8E%8E%E5%A3%AB%E6%AF%94%E4%BA%9A%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">莎士比亚的不同</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E8%AF%A5%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">应该投资什么样的企业</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E7%A7%80%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优秀企业是什么</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%94%9F%E6%84%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">好生意的代表</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E8%80%85%E5%BE%88%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">1.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理者很重要</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E5%AE%9E%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">现实思维的思考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E6%B5%8B%E7%AE%97"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">市场测算</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E5%88%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">目标分解</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%89%93%E9%80%A0%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E7%9A%87%E5%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">1.6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何打造产品皇座</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%A1%8D%E7%94%9F%E5%93%81"><span class="toc-number">1.6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融衍生品</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E5%B7%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F%E5%92%8C%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">老巴的投资风格画像和建议</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%A0%E6%8A%98%E8%85%BE%E8%B5%9A%E9%92%B1%EF%BC%8C%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E9%9D%A0%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%98%E8%85%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">靠折腾赚钱，还是靠不折腾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%8B%E9%87%8D%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%9C%88"><span class="toc-number">1.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">看重自己的能力圈</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E5%88%86%E6%95%A3%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">1.7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">对分散投资的看法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E5%9D%8F%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">拥抱坏消息</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E8%AF%AF%E5%88%A4%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">人类误判心理学</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%80%E8%87%B4%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免不一致倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%92%E5%88%A9%EF%BC%88%E5%9B%9E%E9%A6%88%EF%BC%89%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">互利（回馈）倾向</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8B%92%E7%BB%9D-%E9%80%80%E8%AE%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">拒绝-退让</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E8%81%94%E6%83%B3%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">简单联想倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E8%A7%86%E8%BF%87%E9%AB%98%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自视过高倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A2%AB%E5%89%A5%E5%A4%BA%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">被剥夺超级反应倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%BC%97%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">从众倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">对比错误反应倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%94%99%E8%AF%AF%E8%A1%A1%E9%87%8F%E6%98%93%E5%BE%97%E6%80%A7%E5%80%BE%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">2.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">错误衡量易得性倾向</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E5%90%91%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%AD%A6%E5%81%B7%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.10.</span> <span class="toc-text">应向工程学偷师</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%80%E7%94%9F%E5%8F%AA%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E5%AF%8C%E4%B8%80%E6%AC%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人一生只需要富一次</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">贫穷的本质</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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diff --git "a/\347\253\245\345\271\264\346\210\220\351\225\277\345\257\204\350\257\255.html" "b/\347\253\245\345\271\264\346\210\220\351\225\277\345\257\204\350\257\255.html"
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@@ -443,7 +443,7 @@ <h2 id="千言万语一句话">千言万语一句话</h2>
 <p>从某种角度讲，我们的人生都是所谓的二手的人生，父母总会把他们的经验，他们的喜怒哀乐加到我们身上，只是孩子和父母都不自知罢了。有一本《带蛤蟆先生看心理医生》讲这方面挺多，对情绪原理感兴趣可以<a href="https://github.com/%E5%B8%A6%E8%9B%A4%E8%9F%86%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%E7%9C%8B%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%8C%BB%E7%94%9F.html">传送</a>过去看看。</p>
 <p>不要把劲儿都使在孩子身上，如果你自己充实，快乐，有责任感，有情绪管理能力，孩子会模仿你的。教育从来不是要求，而是影响，道无他，唯爱与榜样而已。真正觉醒的家庭，只改变自己，不改变孩子。人的最佳状态是找到自己不与任何人绑定的人生使命，好好享受人生这场游戏。</p>
 <p>你给孩子真正的财富正是在于你突破了你曾经遭受的种种限制一路披荆斩棘走到今天的经历和力量，以及你继续这样走向未来更加成熟通达的智慧，拥有这样力量和智慧的孩子，他以后会怎样呢？莫小瞧了自己，也小瞧了你的孩子，享受过程，相信自己，相信就是最大的力量。</p>
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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">童年的意义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母存在的意义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E6%A0%A1-vs-%E5%AE%B6%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">学校 vs 家长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%85%A7%E9%A1%BE%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">照顾与分离</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">带娃是个技术活</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%A1%E8%80%90%E6%80%A7%EF%BC%8C%E5%A5%BD%E8%B4%AA%E7%8E%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">没耐性，好贪玩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E4%BC%9A%E6%B6%88%E6%9E%81%E6%89%B9%E8%AF%84"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">只会消极批评</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9E%E7%83%A6%E5%AE%B6%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">神烦家长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9E%E9%AB%98%E4%BE%A0%E4%BE%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">神高侠侣</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E7%BA%A7%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%EF%BC%8C%E5%AF%93%E6%95%99%E4%BA%8E%E4%B9%90"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">降级沟通，寓教于乐</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E7%A1%AE%E5%B9%B8vs%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%93%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">3.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小确幸vs大道理</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">智力成就来自于不盲从</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">育儿看法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%BA%E5%95%86%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">智商回归</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">与孩子的对话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#55-38-7%E5%AE%9A%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">55-38-7定律</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B8%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%97%E8%B7%AF%EF%BC%9AFFC%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">夸孩子的套路：FFC模型</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%9B%E5%A8%83%E5%9F%B9%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">牛娃培养</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A5%B1%E5%92%8C%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">饱和教育</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A8%80%E4%BC%A0%E8%BA%AB%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">言传身教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA%E5%9F%B9%E5%85%BB%E4%B8%80%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三代人培养一代人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E5%BE%85%E8%8A%B1%E5%BC%80vs%E6%8B%94%E8%8B%97%E5%8A%A9%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">静待花开vs拔苗助长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E5%BF%83%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">应有的人格心态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E6%8B%93%E5%B1%95%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">认知拓展过程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%AE%A9%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E4%BB%8E%E5%B0%8F%E7%95%99%E5%AD%A6%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要不要让孩子从小留学？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高等教育如何理解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%95%E5%A3%AB%E5%92%8C%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">硕士和博士有什么区别？</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">公立教育体系的内核</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%B4%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">驴论</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E6%AF%8D%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%B3%E7%9A%84%E7%BC%98%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母子女的缘分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" 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class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">童年的意义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母存在的意义</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E6%A0%A1-vs-%E5%AE%B6%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">学校 vs 家长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%85%A7%E9%A1%BE%E4%B8%8E%E5%88%86%E7%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">照顾与分离</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">带娃是个技术活</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%A1%E8%80%90%E6%80%A7%EF%BC%8C%E5%A5%BD%E8%B4%AA%E7%8E%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">没耐性，好贪玩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E4%BC%9A%E6%B6%88%E6%9E%81%E6%89%B9%E8%AF%84"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">只会消极批评</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9E%E7%83%A6%E5%AE%B6%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">神烦家长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9E%E9%AB%98%E4%BE%A0%E4%BE%A3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">神高侠侣</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E7%BA%A7%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%EF%BC%8C%E5%AF%93%E6%95%99%E4%BA%8E%E4%B9%90"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">降级沟通，寓教于乐</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E7%A1%AE%E5%B9%B8vs%E5%A4%A7%E9%81%93%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">3.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小确幸vs大道理</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">智力成就来自于不盲从</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">育儿看法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%BA%E5%95%86%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">智商回归</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">与孩子的对话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#55-38-7%E5%AE%9A%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">55-38-7定律</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B8%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%97%E8%B7%AF%EF%BC%9AFFC%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">夸孩子的套路：FFC模型</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%9B%E5%A8%83%E5%9F%B9%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">牛娃培养</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A5%B1%E5%92%8C%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">饱和教育</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A8%80%E4%BC%A0%E8%BA%AB%E6%95%99"><span class="toc-number">5.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">言传身教</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%89%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA%E5%9F%B9%E5%85%BB%E4%B8%80%E4%BB%A3%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">5.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">三代人培养一代人</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E5%BE%85%E8%8A%B1%E5%BC%80vs%E6%8B%94%E8%8B%97%E5%8A%A9%E9%95%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">静待花开vs拔苗助长</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%BC%E5%BF%83%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">5.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">应有的人格心态</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E6%8B%93%E5%B1%95%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">认知拓展过程</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%AE%A9%E5%AD%A9%E5%AD%90%E4%BB%8E%E5%B0%8F%E7%95%99%E5%AD%A6%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">要不要让孩子从小留学？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">5.7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高等教育如何理解</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A1%95%E5%A3%AB%E5%92%8C%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">5.7.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">硕士和博士有什么区别？</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">公立教育体系的内核</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%B4%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">驴论</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B6%E6%AF%8D%E5%AD%90%E5%A5%B3%E7%9A%84%E7%BC%98%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">父母子女的缘分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%83%E8%A8%80%E4%B8%87%E8%AF%AD%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%A5%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">千言万语一句话</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/\347\255\211\344\277\235\345\210\206\347\272\247.html" "b/\347\255\211\344\277\235\345\210\206\347\272\247.html"
index 4cc91b6fd4..c67d1795bb 100644
--- "a/\347\255\211\344\277\235\345\210\206\347\272\247.html"
+++ "b/\347\255\211\344\277\235\345\210\206\347\272\247.html"
@@ -394,7 +394,7 @@ <h2 id="应对加固举例">应对加固举例</h2>
       web失陷检测
       渗透测试</pre>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">FREEBUF <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.freebuf.com/articles/network/344946.html">等保2.0看这一篇就够了</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">中南民族大学 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.scuec.edu.cn/metc/info/1015/1573.htm">深入解读等保2.0</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">微信公众号 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-3XWBEhrWPoKROsOfBqMrg">等保信息系统定级指导（国标+行标）</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright-title"><span 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AD%89%E7%BA%A7%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">等级保护定义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AD%89%E4%BF%9D-2-0-%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">等保 2.0 安全通用要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解释</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E7%A7%A9%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会秩序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">公共利益</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国家安全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">损害程度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一般损害</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">严重损害</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">特别严重损害</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9A%E7%BA%A7%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">定级参考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A4%E5%AE%B3%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%A6%E5%AE%9A%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">伤害程度定级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B%E5%AE%9A%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">业务类型定级</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%EF%BC%88IAAS%E3%80%81PAAS%E3%80%81SAAS%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">云平台类型系统（IAAS、PAAS、SAAS）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E7%BA%BF%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">在线交易类型系统</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据平台</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E5%AF%B9%E5%8A%A0%E5%9B%BA%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">应对加固举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AD%89%E7%BA%A7%E4%BF%9D%E6%8A%A4%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">等级保护定义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AD%89%E4%BF%9D-2-0-%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">等保 2.0 安全通用要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A6%82%E5%BF%B5%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">概念解释</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E7%A7%A9%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会秩序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">公共利益</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">国家安全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">损害程度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">一般损害</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">严重损害</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E4%B8%A5%E9%87%8D%E6%8D%9F%E5%AE%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">特别严重损害</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9A%E7%BA%A7%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">定级参考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A4%E5%AE%B3%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%A6%E5%AE%9A%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">伤害程度定级</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B%E5%AE%9A%E7%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">业务类型定级</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%EF%BC%88IAAS%E3%80%81PAAS%E3%80%81SAAS%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">云平台类型系统（IAAS、PAAS、SAAS）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%A8%E7%BA%BF%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E7%B1%BB%E5%9E%8B%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">在线交易类型系统</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%B9%B3%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">大数据平台</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%94%E5%AF%B9%E5%8A%A0%E5%9B%BA%E4%B8%BE%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">应对加固举例</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div 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diff --git "a/\347\256\200\350\257\273\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\217\262.html" "b/\347\256\200\350\257\273\344\270\255\345\233\275\345\217\262.html"
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@@ -290,7 +290,7 @@ <h3 id="现代化发展文化土壤">现代化发展文化土壤</h3>
 <p>天主教文化圈的时间观念比较淡薄，能拖就拖，<u>戏称明日文化</u>，西班牙人对每一个要求，都回答以快乐的明天。</p>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理文化论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E5%91%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%80%E5%88%9B%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西周的开创性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%83%BD%E7%81%AB%E6%88%8F%E8%AF%B8%E4%BE%AF%E5%88%AB%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">烽火戏诸侯别解</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E5%91%A8%E7%BA%B7%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">东周纷争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%93%81%E5%99%A8%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">铁器改造关系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%9B%BD%E9%80%86%E8%BD%AC"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家国逆转</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%B6%E7%BB%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦制的延续</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%82%E4%BA%BA%E5%A7%8B%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">异人始皇帝</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%A1%E5%8E%BF%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%A3%A8%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">郡县制的磨合</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E6%B1%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦汉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B%E5%94%90"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏晋唐</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E5%85%83%E6%98%8E%E6%B8%85"><span class="toc-number">4.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋元明清</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AE%E5%9C%B0%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88"><span class="toc-number">4.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">央地博弈</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E5%94%90%E5%A4%B7%E7%8B%84%E4%B9%8B%E9%A3%8E"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋唐夷狄之风</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%9D%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">帝国经济的逻辑</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E7%9A%84%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E5%B4%A9%E6%BA%83"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财政的循环崩溃</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%B8%A6%E7%89%87%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%A7%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">鸦片战争的侧面</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%A4%A7%E9%9C%B2%E8%BD%AF%E8%82%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自大露软肋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%9D%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">帝国的财政</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工业革命要素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E5%8C%96%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%9C%9F%E5%A3%A4"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代化发展文化土壤</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地理文化论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A5%BF%E5%91%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%BC%80%E5%88%9B%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">西周的开创性</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%83%BD%E7%81%AB%E6%88%8F%E8%AF%B8%E4%BE%AF%E5%88%AB%E8%A7%A3"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">烽火戏诸侯别解</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%9C%E5%91%A8%E7%BA%B7%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">东周纷争</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%93%81%E5%99%A8%E6%94%B9%E9%80%A0%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">铁器改造关系</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%9B%BD%E9%80%86%E8%BD%AC"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">家国逆转</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%B6%E7%BB%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦制的延续</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%82%E4%BA%BA%E5%A7%8B%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%9D"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">异人始皇帝</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%A1%E5%8E%BF%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%A3%A8%E5%90%88"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">郡县制的磨合</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A7%A6%E6%B1%89"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">秦汉</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%8F%E6%99%8B%E5%94%90"><span class="toc-number">4.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">魏晋唐</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%8B%E5%85%83%E6%98%8E%E6%B8%85"><span class="toc-number">4.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">宋元明清</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%AE%E5%9C%B0%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%88"><span class="toc-number">4.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">央地博弈</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9A%8B%E5%94%90%E5%A4%B7%E7%8B%84%E4%B9%8B%E9%A3%8E"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">隋唐夷狄之风</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%9D%E5%9B%BD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%9A%84%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">帝国经济的逻辑</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E7%9A%84%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E5%B4%A9%E6%BA%83"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财政的循环崩溃</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%B8%A6%E7%89%87%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%A7%E9%9D%A2"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">鸦片战争的侧面</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%A4%A7%E9%9C%B2%E8%BD%AF%E8%82%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自大露软肋</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%9D%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">帝国的财政</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">工业革命要素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E5%8C%96%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%9C%9F%E5%A3%A4"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现代化发展文化土壤</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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@@ -376,7 +376,7 @@ <h2 id="评价成就动机">评价成就动机</h2>
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href="#%E6%89%93%E7%B2%AE%E8%8D%89-%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">打粮草-战略落地</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E8%82%A5%E5%8A%9B-%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">增肥力-团队管理</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A2%9E%E8%82%A5%E5%8A%9B-%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5%E8%90%BD%E5%9C%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">增肥力-战略落地</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#IDP"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">IDP</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%84%E4%BB%B7%E6%88%90%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">评价成就动机</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div 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@@ -269,7 +269,7 @@ <h2 id="后记-中心生活是啥">后记-中心生活是啥</h2>
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href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E5%88%9B%E4%B8%9A%E8%80%85%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%8A%9E"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻创业者怎么办</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F-or-%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">小团队 or 大团队</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%87%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%A0%E5%81%9A%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E5%93%81%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">假如你做消费品行业</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E8%89%BA%E5%A4%8D%E5%85%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文艺复兴</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小时代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a 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href="#%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E5%88%9B%E4%B8%9A%E8%80%85%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%8A%9E"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">年轻创业者怎么办</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F-or-%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">小团队 or 大团队</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%87%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%A0%E5%81%9A%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E5%93%81%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">假如你做消费品行业</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E8%89%BA%E5%A4%8D%E5%85%B4"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">文艺复兴</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%8F%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">小时代</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a 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diff --git "a/\347\272\242\350\241\243\346\225\231\344\270\273\344\272\222\346\226\271\350\256\272.html" "b/\347\272\242\350\241\243\346\225\231\344\270\273\344\272\222\346\226\271\350\256\272.html"
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@@ -246,7 +246,7 @@ <h3 id="组织能力">组织能力</h3>
 <p><em>整个部分，老周都是在借乔布斯的某篇电视访谈在谈感想，这个访谈我也看过，没像他点评这么多，但是的确那篇访谈触及到了很多本质的企业管理和创造的问题，乔布斯也是直言不讳，值得经常回顾，前面的博文里自己也写过（本文的斜体都是自己敲写的文字）</em></p>
 <h3 id="周自评的优秀能力">周自评的优秀能力</h3>
 <p>有一种善于学习的能力，叫会问问题。特别在不懂的领域会问的话，就可以快速获得别人积累的知识经验。</p>
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diff --git "a/\347\272\277\347\262\222\344\275\223\345\244\217\345\250\203.html" "b/\347\272\277\347\262\222\344\275\223\345\244\217\345\250\203.html"
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@@ -252,7 +252,7 @@ <h4 id="露西是线粒体夏娃吗">露西是线粒体夏娃吗</h4>
 <p><strong>各自所处时代的“女主角”，年代相差数百万年。</strong></p>
 <p>露西其实已经不是最早的南方古猿化石，还不是最早的人属成员。最早发现的的南方古猿化石为“汤恩小孩”，目前已知最完整的南方古猿化石为“小脚”，最早的人属成员还存争议，南方古猿阿法种（露西所属）和南方古猿湖畔种都是有力的竞争者。</p>
 <p>南方古猿只是智人的远亲，属于灭绝的一种。称为早期人类还行，人类非洲老祖母（夏娃）称号不适合露西。</p>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%A4%8F%E5%A8%83"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">线粒体夏娃</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">背景介绍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E8%A6%81%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数学要说话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E6%9C%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%8B%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">计算机模拟</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%B6%E7%84%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%87%E5%A6%99"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">偶然的奇妙</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A4%E9%A1%B9%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">此项研究成果作用</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">线粒体基因特征背景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%BB%E5%BA%95%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%9A%E5%9C%B0%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">彻底终结了多地起源说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">非洲起源</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A9%E5%B1%95%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩展说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B9%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">她不是唯一</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Y%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E4%BA%9A%E5%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">1.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Y染色体亚当</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9C%B2%E8%A5%BF%E6%98%AF%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%A4%8F%E5%A8%83%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">1.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">露西是线粒体夏娃吗</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%A4%8F%E5%A8%83"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">线粒体夏娃</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">背景介绍</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E8%A6%81%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">数学要说话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E6%9C%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%8B%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">计算机模拟</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%B6%E7%84%B6%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%87%E5%A6%99"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">偶然的奇妙</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AD%A4%E9%A1%B9%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%88%90%E6%9E%9C%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">此项研究成果作用</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%9F%BA%E5%9B%A0%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">线粒体基因特征背景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%BB%E5%BA%95%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93%E4%BA%86%E5%A4%9A%E5%9C%B0%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">彻底终结了多地起源说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E8%B5%B7%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">1.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">非洲起源</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A9%E5%B1%95%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩展说明</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B9%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%94%AF%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">她不是唯一</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Y%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E4%BA%9A%E5%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">1.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Y染色体亚当</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9C%B2%E8%A5%BF%E6%98%AF%E7%BA%BF%E7%B2%92%E4%BD%93%E5%A4%8F%E5%A8%83%E5%90%97"><span class="toc-number">1.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">露西是线粒体夏娃吗</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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diff --git "a/\347\273\204\347\273\207\350\203\275\345\212\233\347\232\204\346\235\250\344\270\211\350\247\222.html" "b/\347\273\204\347\273\207\350\203\275\345\212\233\347\232\204\346\235\250\344\270\211\350\247\222.html"
index 1bbdc23544..b450805af2 100644
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@@ -234,7 +234,7 @@ <h2 id="标杆">标杆</h2>
 <p>如上其实体现出，<strong>当员工表现不尽如人意时，主管要反思，是员工问题还是主管问题</strong>，改变治理方式是否有用，丰田真是一个好标杆。垂直边界改造看丰田的例子，就够了，其实说白了，核心是高级主管把员工当做公司获得竞争优势的源泉。</p>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>组织能力是你战略落地的内力，练好，责无旁贷。</p>
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diff --git "a/\347\273\217\346\265\216\344\270\216\345\200\272\345\212\241.html" "b/\347\273\217\346\265\216\344\270\216\345\200\272\345\212\241.html"
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@@ -591,7 +591,7 @@ <h3 id="世界货币替换的过程">世界货币替换的过程</h3>
 <p>接下来不出意外的话，美国会一直不断出丑，因为巅峰应该已经过了，<strong>他们现在也跟所有帝国中后半期的情况一样，饱受债务的困扰，但想看他们彻底崩了，预计还得很多年，现在说中国超过美国为时尚早</strong>。任正非有句话，现在美国对我们很恶劣，但我们要继续坚持开放，继续向美国学习，其实大家也明白，<u>美国这么大的成就不是偶然的，而是相继引领了两次技术革命，战后几乎所革命性的技术都是他们搞出来的。他们有自己的强悍之处，有一套行之有效的方案和路线</u>。现在为什么在打压我们，因为我们在学习他们做事，并且他们发现我们学的很对，着急慌了。现在中国学习美国企业最有模有样的，就是华为。接下来还是要学习他们剩下了的优点，不骄不躁，我们需要学习的东西实在是太多了。</p>
 <p><font color="dodgerblue">接下来呢，还是要继续摸着白头鹰过河，直到把它彻底摸秃了为止</font>。</p>
 <h3 id="参考">参考</h3>
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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何看待经济</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">周期</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%EF%BC%88%E5%8E%BB%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决债务的方案（去杠杆化）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%B0%8F%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信用货币小例子</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E8%92%B8%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币蒸发</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">海通证券对上述模型的应用解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB%E5%87%A0%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%A4%E4%BB%B6%E4%BA%8B%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们过去几年主要政策是两件事：</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%AD%E6%A0%91%E6%B8%85%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E7%BB%8F%E5%85%B8%E6%AF%94%E5%96%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">郭树清的一些经典比喻</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%AD%E7%9A%84%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">郭的画像</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E6%9D%A5%EF%BC%9A%E5%BD%B1%E5%AD%90%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%94%BE%E5%A4%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">原来：影子银行货币放大</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%BB%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">去杠杆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%8B%E7%BC%A9%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%86%8D%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E2%80%93%E7%B4%A7%E7%BC%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">压缩货币再创造–紧缩</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E6%98%AF%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地产是信用货币创造机</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E5%92%8C%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9-%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">减税支撑消费和盈利-财富分配</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6-%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">债务违约-财富分配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9110%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">近10年的债务危机问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%B3%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E4%B8%8E%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">稳杠杆与转移杠杆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BE%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">政府举债的理论支撑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%B4%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%86%8D%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">重点说说货币再创造</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AC%E5%80%BC%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">贬值说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E9%87%91%E5%88%B8%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">代金券说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币信用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E5%8D%B0%E9%92%B1%E6%98%AF%E7%8E%A9%E7%AC%91%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">直接印钱是玩笑话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#MMT%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E6%9C%89%E8%AF%9D%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.3.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">MMT理论有话说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%86%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E8%B0%83%E8%8A%82%E4%B8%8E%E6%B1%87%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">2.3.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">逆周期调节与汇率</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段总结</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E4%B8%8E%E9%80%9A%E7%BC%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">简单解读通胀与通缩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%80%BA%E9%A2%98%E4%B8%8A%E7%9C%8B%E7%AB%99%E9%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从债题上看站队</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%80%E5%87%BA%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%8F%E3%80%8B%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用《一出好戏》来看货币</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E7%B4%A7%E7%BC%A9%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E7%9A%84%E9%99%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">非紧缩货币的降杠杆方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B7%B3%E5%87%BA%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%81%9A%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">跳出日本陷阱的做法</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E8%B7%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">降杠杆的反跳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">地方债务回望</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#22%E3%80%8123%E4%B9%8B%E4%BA%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">22、23之交</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E5%8F%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">感叹</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">里根的改革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BB%9E%E6%B6%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">滞涨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3-%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">公平 &#x3D;&#x3D;&#x3D;&gt;  效率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8C%E6%A0%B9%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">里根上台</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9D%E7%BD%97%C2%B7%E6%B2%83%E5%B0%94%E5%85%8B%E6%9C%89%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E7%A5%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">保罗·沃尔克有那么神？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">拉美的滞胀</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%BD%E6%9D%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%96%E9%83%A8%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">宽松的外部资金供给</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E6%95%88%E7%9B%8A%E4%BD%8E%E4%B8%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E6%94%BF%E7%BB%8F%E5%B1%80%E5%8A%BF%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资金效益低下，内部政经局势差</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E9%83%A8%E5%B1%80%E5%8A%BF%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">外部局势变化</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">老美为啥不崩溃</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8C%E5%85%83%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美丽国的二元对立统一</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">制度优势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E9%9C%B8%E6%9D%83"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币霸权</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E7%A7%AF%E7%B4%AF%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E5%B8%81%E5%80%BC%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">国际化的信用积累需要币值稳定</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何看待经济</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">周期</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%EF%BC%88%E5%8E%BB%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E5%8C%96%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决债务的方案（去杠杆化）</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%B0%8F%E4%BE%8B%E5%AD%90"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信用货币小例子</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E8%92%B8%E5%8F%91"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币蒸发</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">海通证券对上述模型的应用解读</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB%E5%87%A0%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%A4%E4%BB%B6%E4%BA%8B%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们过去几年主要政策是两件事：</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%AD%E6%A0%91%E6%B8%85%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E7%BB%8F%E5%85%B8%E6%AF%94%E5%96%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">郭树清的一些经典比喻</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%83%AD%E7%9A%84%E7%94%BB%E5%83%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">郭的画像</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E6%9D%A5%EF%BC%9A%E5%BD%B1%E5%AD%90%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%94%BE%E5%A4%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">原来：影子银行货币放大</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%BB%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">去杠杆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%8B%E7%BC%A9%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%86%8D%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E2%80%93%E7%B4%A7%E7%BC%A9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">压缩货币再创造–紧缩</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E6%98%AF%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地产是信用货币创造机</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%8F%E7%A8%8E%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E5%92%8C%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9-%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">减税支撑消费和盈利-财富分配</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6-%E8%B4%A2%E5%AF%8C%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">债务违约-财富分配</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9110%E5%B9%B4%E7%9A%84%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">近10年的债务危机问题</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A8%B3%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E4%B8%8E%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">稳杠杆与转移杠杆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BE%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91"><span class="toc-number">2.3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">政府举债的理论支撑</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%E8%AF%B4%E8%AF%B4%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%86%8D%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">重点说说货币再创造</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%AC%E5%80%BC%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">贬值说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A3%E9%87%91%E5%88%B8%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">代金券说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.3.5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币信用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E5%8D%B0%E9%92%B1%E6%98%AF%E7%8E%A9%E7%AC%91%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">直接印钱是玩笑话</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#MMT%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E6%9C%89%E8%AF%9D%E8%AF%B4"><span class="toc-number">2.3.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">MMT理论有话说</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%86%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E8%B0%83%E8%8A%82%E4%B8%8E%E6%B1%87%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">2.3.6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">逆周期调节与汇率</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶段总结</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E4%B8%8E%E9%80%9A%E7%BC%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">简单解读通胀与通缩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%80%BA%E9%A2%98%E4%B8%8A%E7%9C%8B%E7%AB%99%E9%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从债题上看站队</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%80%E5%87%BA%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%8F%E3%80%8B%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用《一出好戏》来看货币</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E7%B4%A7%E7%BC%A9%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E7%9A%84%E9%99%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">非紧缩货币的降杠杆方法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B7%B3%E5%87%BA%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%81%9A%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">跳出日本陷阱的做法</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E8%B7%B3"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">降杠杆的反跳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E5%9B%9E%E6%9C%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">地方债务回望</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#22%E3%80%8123%E4%B9%8B%E4%BA%A4"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">22、23之交</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E5%8F%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">感叹</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">里根的改革</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BB%9E%E6%B6%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">滞涨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3-%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">公平 &#x3D;&#x3D;&#x3D;&gt;  效率</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8C%E6%A0%B9%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">里根上台</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9D%E7%BD%97%C2%B7%E6%B2%83%E5%B0%94%E5%85%8B%E6%9C%89%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E7%A5%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">保罗·沃尔克有那么神？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">拉美的滞胀</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%BD%E6%9D%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%96%E9%83%A8%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">宽松的外部资金供给</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E9%87%91%E6%95%88%E7%9B%8A%E4%BD%8E%E4%B8%8B%EF%BC%8C%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E6%94%BF%E7%BB%8F%E5%B1%80%E5%8A%BF%E5%B7%AE"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资金效益低下，内部政经局势差</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%96%E9%83%A8%E5%B1%80%E5%8A%BF%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">外部局势变化</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">老美为啥不崩溃</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BD%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8C%E5%85%83%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">美丽国的二元对立统一</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">制度优势</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E9%9C%B8%E6%9D%83"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">货币霸权</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E7%94%A8%E7%A7%AF%E7%B4%AF%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E5%B8%81%E5%80%BC%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A"><span class="toc-number">6.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">国际化的信用积累需要币值稳定</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%9B%BF%E6%8D%A2%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B"><span class="toc-number">6.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">世界货币替换的过程</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" 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diff --git "a/\347\273\217\346\265\216\345\255\246\346\264\276\344\270\216\345\244\247\345\217\230\345\261\200.html" "b/\347\273\217\346\265\216\345\255\246\346\264\276\344\270\216\345\244\247\345\217\230\345\261\200.html"
index ca63ee960f..2f623820e0 100644
--- "a/\347\273\217\346\265\216\345\255\246\346\264\276\344\270\216\345\244\247\345\217\230\345\261\200.html"
+++ "b/\347\273\217\346\265\216\345\255\246\346\264\276\344\270\216\345\244\247\345\217\230\345\261\200.html"
@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@ <h3 id="「川普王大美兴」已变「川普兴大美亡」">「川普王大
 <p>但天命可能不在特朗普，他可能年龄不足以完成这个事，最大的可能是干成胡佛，小概率成为罗斯福。不管怎么来说，美国的人口结构底色还是红脖子，特朗普又是三权集于一身，不应轻视，夜郎自大。2029 可能是世界的分水岭。</p>
 <h2 id="最后">最后</h2>
 <p>分析和抱怨很符合当下大众情绪，但立场始终是想办法去解决问题更为高级。</p>
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href="#%E4%BA%9A%E5%BD%93%E6%96%AF%E5%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚当斯密</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">马克思</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%92%8C%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生产力和生产关系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%AF%E6%81%A9%E6%96%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">凯恩斯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%88%E8%80%B6%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">哈耶克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%97%E9%87%8C%E5%BE%B7%E6%9B%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">弗里德曼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融资本主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%B9%B4%E5%A4%A7%E5%8F%98%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">百年大变局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我改革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融危机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%A5%E8%A7%82%E6%B5%B7%E6%8E%98%E5%A2%93%E7%BE%8E%E5%88%A9%E5%9D%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">奥观海掘墓美利坚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8C%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E7%8E%8B%E5%A4%A7%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%B4%E3%80%8D%E5%B7%B2%E5%8F%98%E3%80%8C%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E5%85%B4%E5%A4%A7%E7%BE%8E%E4%BA%A1%E3%80%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">「川普王大美兴」已变「川普兴大美亡」</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" 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href="#%E4%BA%9A%E5%BD%93%E6%96%AF%E5%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚当斯密</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">马克思</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%8A%9B%E5%92%8C%E7%94%9F%E4%BA%A7%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">生产力和生产关系</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%AF%E6%81%A9%E6%96%AF"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">凯恩斯</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%88%E8%80%B6%E5%85%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">哈耶克</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%97%E9%87%8C%E5%BE%B7%E6%9B%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">弗里德曼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融资本主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E5%B9%B4%E5%A4%A7%E5%8F%98%E5%B1%80"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">百年大变局</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自我改革</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融危机</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%A5%E8%A7%82%E6%B5%B7%E6%8E%98%E5%A2%93%E7%BE%8E%E5%88%A9%E5%9D%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">奥观海掘墓美利坚</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8C%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E7%8E%8B%E5%A4%A7%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%B4%E3%80%8D%E5%B7%B2%E5%8F%98%E3%80%8C%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E5%85%B4%E5%A4%A7%E7%BE%8E%E4%BA%A1%E3%80%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">「川普王大美兴」已变「川普兴大美亡」</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">最后</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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@@ -258,7 +258,7 @@ <h3 id="自律的心理基础">自律的心理基础</h3>
 </blockquote>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p><font color="dodgerblue">自律是我们根据自己的价值观来约束指引自己的行为</font>，积极来看，想要达到更高的自我境界，是一个慢功夫，需要持续不断优化自己，甚至是一辈子的功夫。</p>
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class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美阶层生活没啥两样</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%82%E5%BC%95%E5%8F%91%E7%9A%84%E9%81%93%E5%BE%B7%E5%AB%89%E5%A6%92"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">上层引发的道德嫉妒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5%E5%81%8F%E6%A6%82%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%A3%E4%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以偏概全的宣传</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#So-%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E6%98%AF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">So 结论是？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E5%8A%AA%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">要不要努力？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E7%A6%BB%E4%B8%8D%E5%BC%80%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">改变阶层离不开自律</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自律的心理基础</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">中美阶层生活没啥两样</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%82%E5%BC%95%E5%8F%91%E7%9A%84%E9%81%93%E5%BE%B7%E5%AB%89%E5%A6%92"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">上层引发的道德嫉妒</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%A5%E5%81%8F%E6%A6%82%E5%85%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%A3%E4%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">以偏概全的宣传</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#So-%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E6%98%AF%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">So 结论是？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E5%8A%AA%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">要不要努力？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E7%A6%BB%E4%B8%8D%E5%BC%80%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">改变阶层离不开自律</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%BE%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">自律的心理基础</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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diff --git "a/\350\222\270\351\246\217\347\203\247\351\205\222.html" "b/\350\222\270\351\246\217\347\203\247\351\205\222.html"
index 9f132ef8bc..ddbc34b29a 100644
--- "a/\350\222\270\351\246\217\347\203\247\351\205\222.html"
+++ "b/\350\222\270\351\246\217\347\203\247\351\205\222.html"
@@ -264,7 +264,7 @@ <h3 id="红酒的涩">红酒的涩</h3>
 <h3 id="兑着喝">兑着喝</h3>
 <p>西方某些师傅追求于去除葡萄酒里的糖份，而东方红酒+雪碧，威士忌加冰红茶，大家玩的时候常见的很，因为不是中国的传统文化，想怎么喝就怎么喝，也有好多女士不会喝酒觉得涩所以兑一下。<strong>但一旦喝茅台，我们不会加别的东西，冰块也不行</strong>。</p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
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class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国烧酒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E9%85%92%E8%8E%AB%E5%90%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">白酒莫吹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E8%AE%B0%E8%91%A1%E8%90%84%E9%85%92%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">补记葡萄酒一些内容</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%85%BF%E9%85%92%E7%BA%A2%E8%91%A1%E8%90%84%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E5%93%81%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">酿酒红葡萄的四大品种</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%B9%8C%E9%BE%99%E8%8C%B6%E6%9D%A5%E6%AF%94%E5%96%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用乌龙茶来比喻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%A2%E9%85%92%E7%9A%84%E6%B6%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">红酒的涩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%91%E7%9D%80%E5%96%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">兑着喝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20221124205802.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" 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class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中国烧酒</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E9%85%92%E8%8E%AB%E5%90%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">白酒莫吹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E8%AE%B0%E8%91%A1%E8%90%84%E9%85%92%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%9B%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">补记葡萄酒一些内容</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%85%BF%E9%85%92%E7%BA%A2%E8%91%A1%E8%90%84%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%9B%E5%A4%A7%E5%93%81%E7%A7%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">酿酒红葡萄的四大品种</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%B9%8C%E9%BE%99%E8%8C%B6%E6%9D%A5%E6%AF%94%E5%96%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用乌龙茶来比喻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%A2%E9%85%92%E7%9A%84%E6%B6%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">红酒的涩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%91%E7%9D%80%E5%96%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">兑着喝</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a 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@@ -268,7 +268,7 @@ <h2 id="后记">后记</h2>
 <p>个人的看法里，金融界一直有我放开了玩的冲动，很多创新机制理论上没问题，为效率挺好挺美的，但<u>实操层面，因为人的参与就会出现各种纰漏与变形。所以在金融层面引入审慎监管是有必要的</u>，别的不说，理论上没有经济危机或金融危机，但还是实实在在会发生。</p>
 <p>黑钱为什么能洗白，跟实操层面的理解和跟踪复杂性一个道理。</p>
 <p>借用一句比较糙的话，<font color="blur">你不能假装人（官员/从业者/评级机构）都有最高尚的道德和最过硬的能力，就像假装新中国没有娼妓一样</font>。</p>
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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%83%E7%93%9C%E7%BB%8F%E8%BF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">吃瓜经过</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%91%A9%E6%8B%B3%E6%93%A6%E6%8E%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">摩拳擦掌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A3%8E%E4%BA%91%E7%AA%81%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">风云突变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E8%B7%AF%E5%90%83%E7%93%9C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">各路吃瓜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E5%AA%92%E6%9C%89%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%AF%E5%AF%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">传媒有意误导</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9A%82%E7%BC%93%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">暂缓上市</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E5%92%8B%E4%B8%AA%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E5%8F%98%E8%9A%82%E8%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">到底咋个蚂蚁变蚂蟥</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内部说法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E5%AE%9E%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">真实为啥</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%92%E5%BC%80BigTech%E6%8B%9B%E8%82%A1%E4%B9%A6%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">扒开BigTech招股书看看</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9B%E5%AE%97%E7%BD%AA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">四宗罪</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BigTech%E4%B8%8E%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">BigTech与金融业的冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E4%B8%9A%E8%AF%B4%E6%88%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%B0%8F%E5%BE%AE%E4%BD%A0%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%8D%E8%A7%81"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融业说我助小微你选择看不见</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E4%B8%9A%E8%AF%B4%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E8%BF%87%E5%88%86%E5%90%B9%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%A3%8E%E6%8E%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融业说蚂蚁过分吹大数据风控</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E7%A1%AE%E5%AE%9E%E5%9C%A8C%E7%AB%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">蚂蚁的优势确实在C端</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E7%9A%84%E6%80%81%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">监管的态度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融危机的教训</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span 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class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%83%E7%93%9C%E7%BB%8F%E8%BF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">吃瓜经过</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%91%A9%E6%8B%B3%E6%93%A6%E6%8E%8C"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">摩拳擦掌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A3%8E%E4%BA%91%E7%AA%81%E5%8F%98"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">风云突变</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E8%B7%AF%E5%90%83%E7%93%9C"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">各路吃瓜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E5%AA%92%E6%9C%89%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%AF%E5%AF%BC"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">传媒有意误导</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9A%82%E7%BC%93%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">暂缓上市</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E5%92%8B%E4%B8%AA%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E5%8F%98%E8%9A%82%E8%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">到底咋个蚂蚁变蚂蟥</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">内部说法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E5%AE%9E%E4%B8%BA%E5%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">真实为啥</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%92%E5%BC%80BigTech%E6%8B%9B%E8%82%A1%E4%B9%A6%E7%9C%8B%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">扒开BigTech招股书看看</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%9B%E5%AE%97%E7%BD%AA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">四宗罪</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#BigTech%E4%B8%8E%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B2%E7%AA%81"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">BigTech与金融业的冲突</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E4%B8%9A%E8%AF%B4%E6%88%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%B0%8F%E5%BE%AE%E4%BD%A0%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%8D%E8%A7%81"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融业说我助小微你选择看不见</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E4%B8%9A%E8%AF%B4%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E8%BF%87%E5%88%86%E5%90%B9%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%A3%8E%E6%8E%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融业说蚂蚁过分吹大数据风控</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9A%82%E8%9A%81%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF%E7%A1%AE%E5%AE%9E%E5%9C%A8C%E7%AB%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">蚂蚁的优势确实在C端</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%91%E7%AE%A1%E7%9A%84%E6%80%81%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">监管的态度</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%AE%AD"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融危机的教训</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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diff --git "a/\350\256\251\345\244\247\350\204\221\350\207\252\347\224\261.html" "b/\350\256\251\345\244\247\350\204\221\350\207\252\347\224\261.html"
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@@ -568,7 +568,7 @@ <h5 id="长期来看，人类棋手的成本更高">长期来看，人类棋手
 <h2 id="生而为人">生而为人</h2>
 <p>**独立思想的人格最为可贵！**我们要的不是「听话vs叛逆」的二极管思维。如果大家都没有独立思维的能力，那么我们今天被 AI，硅基生命替代又有什么关系呢。同时让人类去思考恰恰是一件难事，因为思考本身会去摧毁你过去的一些神经元链接，是一个拓扑结构的（微）重建过程，在消耗能量的过程中你会头疼（缺氧），<strong>生而为人最宝贵的就是大脑不被束缚，大脑是自由的。</strong></p>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
-<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">中科院神经科学研究所， <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.cebsit.cas.cn/yjz/djl_/yjfx/">感觉整合与行为研究组</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">知乎，<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/59798734">AlphaGo 和人类棋手比起来谁消耗的资源更多?</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:3"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">新浪， <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://k.sina.cn/article_6107913766_16c0f5e2602000nxx8.html">面对知识时保持自由，获取知识时保持纪律</a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_front" src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff_128.png" title="头像" alt="头像"></a><div class="post-copyright__author_name">DiffDay</div><div class="post-copyright__author_desc">We are here to be creators!</div></div><div class="post-copyright__post__info"><a class="post-copyright__original" title="该文章为原创文章，注意版权协议" 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B8%E4%BB%A4%E5%AE%98%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">司令官的分层与发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">脑的分层</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">进化的驱动力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%94%E5%80%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%BA%90%E5%A4%B4%E7%8C%9C%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">气候危机的源头猜测</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E8%B6%8A%E6%AD%A3%E5%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">越运动，大脑越正常</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B8%E4%BB%A4%E5%AE%98"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">特别的司令官</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E5%AF%B9%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%9D%E5%81%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">运动对大脑的保健</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8Make-Us-Better"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">运动Make Us Better</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AF%8F%E4%B8%AA%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E9%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">每个大脑都不同</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E7%94%A8%E8%B6%8A%E5%BC%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">越用越强</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E9%AB%98%E5%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">几个阶段高峰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%AE%E8%82%A4%E9%97%B2%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">皮肤闲话</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E4%B8%8D%E5%85%B3%E6%B3%A8%E6%97%A0%E8%81%8A%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑不关注无聊的事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E5%A4%9A%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免多任务处理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%83%E6%B5%81%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">心流的重要性</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">沟通的建议</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#10%E5%88%86%E9%92%9F%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">10分钟注意力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8A%9B%E4%B9%A0%E6%83%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">注意力习惯的文化差别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%AD%E6%97%B6%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">短时记忆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BC%96%E7%A0%81%E6%8F%90%E5%8F%96%EF%BC%8C%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">编码提取，分类分布式存储</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E8%AF%81%E5%88%86%E6%95%A3%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E7%97%85%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">实证分散存储的病例</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E5%9D%90%E5%9C%A8%E6%84%9F%E7%9F%A5%E6%97%81"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆坐在感知旁</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期记忆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E6%A3%80%E7%B4%A2%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆检索机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%AA%E4%B8%AA%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%89%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%AD%A3%E7%A1%AE%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哪个模式才是正确的？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%81%E6%98%93%E8%A2%AB%E4%BF%AE%E6%94%B9%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">极易被修改的记忆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%97%E5%BF%98%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">遗忘的作用</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">重复的功效</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9E%E7%BB%8F%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%BC%A0%E9%80%92%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C"><span class="toc-number">6.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">神经信息传递实验</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E7%A1%AC%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆硬化的等待时间</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%A1%E5%BE%97%E5%A5%BD%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E6%89%8D%E4%BC%9A%E8%BD%AC%E5%BE%97%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">睡得好，大脑才会转得好</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E5%9C%A8%E7%9D%A1%E7%9C%A0%E6%9C%9F%E5%B9%B2%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%B4%BB"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑在睡眠期干什么活</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E9%86%92%E4%B8%8E%E7%9D%A1%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E6%8B%89%E9%94%AF%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">清醒与睡觉的拉锯战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9%E9%92%9F%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物钟模式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E7%81%B5%E9%B8%9F"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">百灵鸟</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8C%AB%E5%A4%B4%E9%B9%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">猫头鹰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9C%82%E9%B8%9F%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">蜂鸟型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">有问题型</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9%E9%92%9F%E5%9C%A8%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E6%AE%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物钟在年龄段的变化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E5%A4%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%8F%E6%86%A9"><span class="toc-number">7.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">白天的小憩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%A1%E7%9C%A0%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%96%E5%AD%A6%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">睡眠的化学作用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%9A%E6%8D%9F%E4%BC%A4%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">压力会损伤你的大脑</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%A4%E5%AE%B3%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">压力伤害记忆能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%AE%E8%B4%A8%E9%86%87%E4%B8%8EBDNF"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">皮质醇与BDNF</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E5%BA%94%E6%BF%80%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E5%9D%8F%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期应激的其它坏处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%91%E9%83%81%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">抑郁症</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">8.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭情绪的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%8C%E5%9C%BA%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">8.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">职场压力数据</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E5%96%9C%E6%AC%A2%E5%A4%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%84%9F%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑喜欢多重感觉的世界</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%9A%E6%84%9F%E8%A7%89%EF%BC%8C%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%9A%E7%95%99%E5%AD%98"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">更多感觉，更多留存</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%97%85%E8%A7%89%E7%9B%B4%E9%80%9A%E8%BD%A6"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">嗅觉直通车</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%89%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E6%9C%89%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E6%84%9F%E5%AE%98"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">视觉是最有力的感官</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%89%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">视觉胜利</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%B9%B6%E9%9D%9E%E5%9C%A8%E7%94%A8%E7%9C%BC%E7%9D%9B%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E6%98%AF%E5%9C%A8%E7%94%A8%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们并非在用眼睛看，而是在用大脑看</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BE%E5%83%8F%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文字的图像化</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E6%80%A7%E5%88%AB%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的性别差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#X%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E5%BE%88%E6%9C%89%E5%85%B3"><span class="toc-number">11.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">X染色体与大脑很有关</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#X%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E5%8F%8C%E4%BB%BD%E9%95%B6%E5%B5%8C"><span class="toc-number">11.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">X染色体双份镶嵌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%AB%E6%98%9F%E4%B8%8E%E9%87%91%E6%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">11.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">火星与金星</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E5%A5%B3"><span class="toc-number">11.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女女</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B7%E5%A5%B3"><span class="toc-number">11.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">男女</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">11.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">生化解释</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A9%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%A2%E9%99%A9%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们是天生的探险家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E8%87%AA%E5%B8%A6%E9%95%9C%E5%83%8F%E7%A5%9E%E7%BB%8F%E5%85%83"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">动物自带镜像神经元</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E6%9B%BE%E6%98%AF%E6%A6%9C%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">儿童曾是榜样</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%87%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">好奇心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%87%E5%BF%83%E7%9A%84%E6%8B%A6%E8%B7%AF%E8%99%8E"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">好奇心的拦路虎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%92%E6%92%AD%E4%B8%80%E6%AE%B5%E9%9D%9E%E6%9C%AC%E4%B9%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">12.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">插播一段非本书的内容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%9F%E5%9C%A8%E6%8E%A2%E9%99%A9%E8%BF%9B%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">12.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">成人也在探险进步</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E8%80%97"><span class="toc-number">13.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能耗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">13.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E6%A8%A1%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">13.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">多模态</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">与大模型的差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%84%91%E5%92%8C%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">13.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人脑和模型的能效对比</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E8%A1%8C%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">13.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">运行成本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">13.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">训练成本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E6%A3%8B%E6%89%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E6%9B%B4%E9%AB%98"><span class="toc-number">13.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期来看，人类棋手的成本更高</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">生而为人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%B8%E4%BB%A4%E5%AE%98%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">司令官的分层与发展</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">脑的分层</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">进化的驱动力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%94%E5%80%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%BA%90%E5%A4%B4%E7%8C%9C%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">气候危机的源头猜测</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E8%B6%8A%E6%AD%A3%E5%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">越运动，大脑越正常</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%B8%E4%BB%A4%E5%AE%98"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">特别的司令官</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E5%AF%B9%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%9D%E5%81%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">运动对大脑的保健</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8Make-Us-Better"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">运动Make Us Better</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AF%8F%E4%B8%AA%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E9%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">每个大脑都不同</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B6%8A%E7%94%A8%E8%B6%8A%E5%BC%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">越用越强</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%87%A0%E4%B8%AA%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E9%AB%98%E5%B3%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">几个阶段高峰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%AE%E8%82%A4%E9%97%B2%E8%AF%9D"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">皮肤闲话</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E4%B8%8D%E5%85%B3%E6%B3%A8%E6%97%A0%E8%81%8A%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑不关注无聊的事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E5%A4%9A%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">避免多任务处理</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BF%83%E6%B5%81%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">心流的重要性</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%E7%9A%84%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">沟通的建议</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#10%E5%88%86%E9%92%9F%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">4.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">10分钟注意力</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8A%9B%E4%B9%A0%E6%83%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%B7%AE%E5%88%AB"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">注意力习惯的文化差别</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%AD%E6%97%B6%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">短时记忆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BC%96%E7%A0%81%E6%8F%90%E5%8F%96%EF%BC%8C%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E5%BC%8F%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">编码提取，分类分布式存储</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E8%AF%81%E5%88%86%E6%95%A3%E5%AD%98%E5%82%A8%E7%9A%84%E7%97%85%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">实证分散存储的病例</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E5%9D%90%E5%9C%A8%E6%84%9F%E7%9F%A5%E6%97%81"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆坐在感知旁</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期记忆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E6%A3%80%E7%B4%A2%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆检索机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%AA%E4%B8%AA%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E6%89%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%AD%A3%E7%A1%AE%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">哪个模式才是正确的？</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%81%E6%98%93%E8%A2%AB%E4%BF%AE%E6%94%B9%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">极易被修改的记忆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%81%97%E5%BF%98%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">遗忘的作用</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%9F%E6%95%88"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">重复的功效</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A5%9E%E7%BB%8F%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%BC%A0%E9%80%92%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C"><span class="toc-number">6.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">神经信息传递实验</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E7%A1%AC%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆硬化的等待时间</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%A1%E5%BE%97%E5%A5%BD%EF%BC%8C%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E6%89%8D%E4%BC%9A%E8%BD%AC%E5%BE%97%E5%A5%BD"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">睡得好，大脑才会转得好</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E5%9C%A8%E7%9D%A1%E7%9C%A0%E6%9C%9F%E5%B9%B2%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%B4%BB"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑在睡眠期干什么活</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E9%86%92%E4%B8%8E%E7%9D%A1%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E6%8B%89%E9%94%AF%E6%88%98"><span class="toc-number">7.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">清醒与睡觉的拉锯战</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9%E9%92%9F%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">7.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物钟模式</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BE%E7%81%B5%E9%B8%9F"><span class="toc-number">7.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">百灵鸟</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8C%AB%E5%A4%B4%E9%B9%B0"><span class="toc-number">7.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">猫头鹰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%9C%82%E9%B8%9F%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">蜂鸟型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">7.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">有问题型</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E7%89%A9%E9%92%9F%E5%9C%A8%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E6%AE%B5%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">7.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">生物钟在年龄段的变化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BD%E5%A4%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%8F%E6%86%A9"><span class="toc-number">7.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">白天的小憩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9D%A1%E7%9C%A0%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%96%E5%AD%A6%E4%BD%9C%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">7.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">睡眠的化学作用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%9A%E6%8D%9F%E4%BC%A4%E4%BD%A0%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">压力会损伤你的大脑</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%BC%A4%E5%AE%B3%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">压力伤害记忆能力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%AE%E8%B4%A8%E9%86%87%E4%B8%8EBDNF"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">皮质醇与BDNF</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E5%BA%94%E6%BF%80%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E5%9D%8F%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">8.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期应激的其它坏处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%91%E9%83%81%E7%97%87"><span class="toc-number">8.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">抑郁症</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">8.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">家庭情绪的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%8C%E5%9C%BA%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE"><span class="toc-number">8.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">职场压力数据</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E5%96%9C%E6%AC%A2%E5%A4%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%84%9F%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑喜欢多重感觉的世界</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%9A%E6%84%9F%E8%A7%89%EF%BC%8C%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%9A%E7%95%99%E5%AD%98"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">更多感觉，更多留存</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%97%85%E8%A7%89%E7%9B%B4%E9%80%9A%E8%BD%A6"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">嗅觉直通车</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%89%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E6%9C%89%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E6%84%9F%E5%AE%98"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">视觉是最有力的感官</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%86%E8%A7%89%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">视觉胜利</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E5%B9%B6%E9%9D%9E%E5%9C%A8%E7%94%A8%E7%9C%BC%E7%9D%9B%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E6%98%AF%E5%9C%A8%E7%94%A8%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们并非在用眼睛看，而是在用大脑看</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BE%E5%83%8F%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">10.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">文字的图像化</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E6%80%A7%E5%88%AB%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的性别差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#X%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E5%BE%88%E6%9C%89%E5%85%B3"><span class="toc-number">11.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">X染色体与大脑很有关</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#X%E6%9F%93%E8%89%B2%E4%BD%93%E5%8F%8C%E4%BB%BD%E9%95%B6%E5%B5%8C"><span class="toc-number">11.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">X染色体双份镶嵌</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%AB%E6%98%9F%E4%B8%8E%E9%87%91%E6%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">11.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">火星与金星</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E5%A5%B3"><span class="toc-number">11.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女女</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B7%E5%A5%B3"><span class="toc-number">11.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">男女</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E9%87%8A"><span class="toc-number">11.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">生化解释</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A9%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%A2%E9%99%A9%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">我们是天生的探险家</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E8%87%AA%E5%B8%A6%E9%95%9C%E5%83%8F%E7%A5%9E%E7%BB%8F%E5%85%83"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">动物自带镜像神经元</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%84%BF%E7%AB%A5%E6%9B%BE%E6%98%AF%E6%A6%9C%E6%A0%B7"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">儿童曾是榜样</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%87%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">好奇心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E5%A5%87%E5%BF%83%E7%9A%84%E6%8B%A6%E8%B7%AF%E8%99%8E"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">好奇心的拦路虎</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%92%E6%92%AD%E4%B8%80%E6%AE%B5%E9%9D%9E%E6%9C%AC%E4%B9%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9"><span class="toc-number">12.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">插播一段非本书的内容</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%90%E4%BA%BA%E4%B9%9F%E5%9C%A8%E6%8E%A2%E9%99%A9%E8%BF%9B%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">12.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">成人也在探险进步</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8E%E8%AE%B0"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">后记</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E5%BE%81"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的特征</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E8%80%97"><span class="toc-number">13.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">能耗</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%B0%E5%BF%86"><span class="toc-number">13.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">记忆</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E6%A8%A1%E6%80%81"><span class="toc-number">13.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">多模态</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8E%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">与大模型的差异</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E8%84%91%E5%92%8C%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%83%BD%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">13.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人脑和模型的能效对比</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%90%E8%A1%8C%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">13.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">运行成本</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">13.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">训练成本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E6%A3%8B%E6%89%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E6%9B%B4%E9%AB%98"><span class="toc-number">13.3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">长期来看，人类棋手的成本更高</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%9F%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">生而为人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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index 0d275c1f86..baa7342dfc 100644
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@@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ <h3 id="群众">群众</h3>
 <h3 id="结局">结局</h3>
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index 50e292affa..f7191be9d5 100644
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@@ -555,7 +555,7 @@ <h3 id="高适生平">高适生平</h3>
 <p>动画中高适计谋成功功成身退的设计也是创作方的艺术加工，实际为不敌</p>
 </blockquote>
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id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E6%9C%AC%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">民本篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%B1%B1%E5%9D%A1%E7%BE%8A%C2%B7%E6%BD%BC%E5%85%B3%E6%80%80%E5%8F%A4%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%83%C2%B7%E5%BC%A0%E5%85%BB%E6%B5%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《山坡羊·潼关怀古》-元·张养浩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%A7%82%E7%A5%88%E9%9B%A8%E3%80%8B-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E7%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《观祈雨》-唐·李约</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%AE%E8%BA%AB%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">修身篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%9B%BD%E8%AF%AD%E5%BC%95%E5%8F%A4%E8%B0%9A%E8%AF%AD%E8%8A%82%E9%80%89%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%C2%B7%E6%97%A0%E5%90%8D%E6%B0%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《国语引古谚语节选》-先秦·无名氏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E9%A2%98%E7%AB%B9%E7%9F%B3%E7%94%BB%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E9%83%91%E6%9D%BF%E6%A1%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《题竹石画》-清·郑板桥</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B2%E4%BA%A5%E6%9D%82%E8%AF%97%E5%9B%9B%E9%A6%96-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E9%BE%9A%E8%87%AA%E7%8F%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">已亥杂诗四首-清·龚自珍</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%B0%8F%E9%9B%85%C2%B7%E9%B9%A4%E9%B8%A3%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%C2%B7%E6%97%A0%E5%90%8D%E6%B0%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《小雅·鹤鸣》-先秦·无名氏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%AE%BA%E8%AF%97%E4%BA%94%E7%BB%9D%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E8%B5%B5%E7%BF%BC"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《论诗五绝》-清·赵翼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9D%E5%AD%A6%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">劝学篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%86%AC%E5%A4%9C%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E7%A4%BA%E6%84%8F%E5%AD%90%E8%81%BF%EF%BC%88yu%EF%BC%89%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E9%99%86%E6%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《冬夜读书示意子聿（yù）》-宋·陆游</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%A7%82%E4%B9%A6%E6%9C%89%E6%84%9F%E4%BA%8C%E9%A6%96%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E6%9C%B1%E7%86%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《观书有感二首》-宋·朱熹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%80%81%E9%BB%84%E7%89%9B%E3%80%8B-%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%C2%B7%E8%87%A7%E5%85%8B%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">《老黄牛》-近代·臧克家</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E5%BF%97%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">明志篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%92%8F%E5%AF%92%E6%9D%BE%E3%80%8B-%E5%8D%97%E5%8C%97%E6%9C%9D%C2%B7%E8%8C%83%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《咏寒松》-南北朝·范云</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%80%E6%9E%9D%E8%8A%B1%C2%B7%E4%B8%8D%E6%9C%8D%E8%80%81%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%83%C2%B7%E5%85%B3%E6%B1%89%E5%8D%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《一枝花·不服老》-元·关汉卿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%92%8F%E6%A2%85%E4%B9%9D%E9%A6%96%E4%B9%8B%E4%B8%80%E3%80%8B-%E6%98%8E%C2%B7%E9%AB%98%E5%90%AF"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">《咏梅九首之一》-明·高启</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%BF%B0%E5%BF%97%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E6%B4%AA%E7%A7%80%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">《述志》-清·洪秀全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E7%8B%B1%E4%B8%AD%E8%B5%A0%E9%82%B9%E5%AE%B9%E3%80%8B-%E8%BF%91%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%C2%B7%E7%AB%A0%E7%82%B3%E9%BA%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">《狱中赠邹容》-近现代·章炳麟</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%87%AA%E5%98%B2%E3%80%8B-%E9%B2%81%E8%BF%85"><span class="toc-number">6.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">《自嘲》-鲁迅</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%AF%89%E8%A1%B7%E6%83%85%C2%B7%E6%B1%9F%E5%B1%B1%E9%9D%A0%E8%B0%81%E5%AE%88%E3%80%8B-%E2%80%9C%E6%AF%9B%E6%B3%BD%E4%B8%9C%E2%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">6.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">《诉衷情·江山靠谁守》- “毛泽东”</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E5%BB%89%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">清廉篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%8D%9C%E7%AE%97%E5%AD%90%C2%B7%E5%92%8F%E6%A2%85%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E9%99%86%E6%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《卜算子·咏梅》-宋·陆游</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BD%90%E5%AE%B6%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">齐家篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E9%83%91%E9%A3%8E%C2%B7%E5%A5%B3%E6%9B%B0%E9%B8%A1%E9%B8%A3%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%C2%B7%E6%97%A0%E5%90%8D%E6%B0%8F"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《郑风·女曰鸡鸣》-先秦·无名氏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%B5%B4%E6%88%8D%E7%99%BB%E7%A8%8B%E5%8F%A3%E7%A4%BA%E5%AE%B6%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E6%9E%97%E5%88%99%E5%BE%90"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《赴戍登程口示家人》-清·林则徐</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B1%E6%83%85%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">爱情篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%8F%A4%E6%80%A8%E6%AD%8C%E3%80%8B-%E6%B1%89%C2%B7%E7%AA%A6%E7%8E%84%E5%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《古怨歌》-汉·窦玄妻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E6%9D%8E%E5%BB%B6%E5%B9%B4%E6%AD%8C%E3%80%8B-%E6%B1%89%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E5%BB%B6%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《李延年歌》-汉·李延年</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E7%A6%BB%E6%80%9D%E3%80%8B-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E5%85%83%E7%A8%B9-zhen"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">《离思》-唐·元稹(zhěn)</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%80%E5%89%AA%E6%A2%85%C2%B7%E8%88%9F%E8%BF%87%E5%90%B4%E6%B1%9F%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E8%92%8B%E6%8D%B7"><span class="toc-number">9.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">《一剪梅·舟过吴江》-宋·蒋捷</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A5%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">报国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%B4%BA%E6%96%B0%E9%83%8E%C2%B7%E9%80%81%E8%83%A1%E9%82%A6%E8%A1%A1%E5%BE%85%E5%88%B6%E8%B5%B4%E6%96%B0%E5%B7%9E%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E5%BC%A0%E5%85%83%E5%B9%B2"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《贺新郎·送胡邦衡待制赴新州》-宋·张元干</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A2%85%E5%B2%AD%E4%B8%89%E7%AB%A0-%E9%99%88%E6%AF%85"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">梅岭三章-陈毅</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E6%B8%B8%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">交游篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E8%B5%A0%E5%8D%A2%E8%B0%8C%EF%BC%88shen%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%88%E8%8A%82%E9%80%89%EF%BC%89-%E8%A5%BF%E6%99%8B%C2%B7%E5%88%98%E7%90%A8"><span class="toc-number">11.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">重赠卢谌（shèn）（节选）-西晋·刘琨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%81%E6%9D%9C%E5%B0%91%E5%BA%9C%E4%B9%8B%E4%BB%BB%E8%9C%80%E5%B7%9E-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E5%8B%83"><span class="toc-number">11.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">送杜少府之任蜀州-唐·王勃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%98%E6%9D%8E%E5%87%9D%E5%B9%BD%E5%B1%85-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E8%B4%BE%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">11.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">题李凝幽居-唐·贾岛</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E8%91%A3%E4%BC%A0%E7%95%99%E5%88%AB-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E8%8B%8F%E8%BD%BC"><span class="toc-number">11.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">和董传留别-宋·苏轼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E6%80%9D%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲思篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BB%E9%B9%B3%E9%9B%80%E6%A5%BC-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E4%B9%8B%E6%B6%A3"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">登鹳雀楼-唐·王之涣</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E5%B7%AB%E5%B7%9E%E8%8D%A0%E8%8F%9C-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E9%AB%98%E5%8A%9B%E5%A3%AB"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">感巫州荠菜-唐·高力士</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%8C%E8%A1%A3%E5%B7%B7-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E5%88%98%E7%A6%B9%E9%94%A1"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">乌衣巷-唐·刘禹锡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%AA%E6%B7%98%E6%B2%99%E4%BB%A4%C2%B7%E4%BC%8A%E5%90%95%E4%B8%A4%E8%A1%B0%E7%BF%81-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E5%AE%89%E7%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">浪淘沙令·伊吕两衰翁-宋·王安石</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%92%93%E5%8F%B0%E9%A2%98%E7%92%A7-%E9%83%81%E8%BE%BE%E5%A4%AB"><span class="toc-number">12.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">钓台题璧-郁达夫</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%B8%E8%A5%9F%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">胸襟篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%86-qiang-%E8%BF%9B%E9%85%92-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E7%99%BD"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">将[qiāng]进酒-唐·李白</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%B1%E4%B8%AD%E9%A2%98%E5%A3%81-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E8%B0%AD%E5%97%A3%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">狱中题壁-清·谭嗣同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%81%E5%9B%AD%E6%98%A5%C2%B7%E9%9B%AA-%E6%AF%9B%E6%B3%BD%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">13.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">沁园春·雪-毛泽东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E8%A7%A3%E6%94%BE%E5%86%9B%E5%8D%A0%E9%A2%86%E5%8D%97%E4%BA%AC-%E6%AF%9B%E6%B3%BD%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">13.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人民解放军占领南京-毛泽东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BB%A1%E6%B1%9F%E7%BA%A2%C2%B7%E5%92%8C%E9%83%AD%E6%B2%AB%E8%8B%A5%E5%90%8C%E5%BF%97"><span class="toc-number">13.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">满江红·和郭沫若同志</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%B1%E6%B0%B4%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">山水篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A1%E5%8C%97%E5%9B%BA%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%8B-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E6%B9%BE"><span class="toc-number">14.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">次北固山下-唐·王湾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%A3%E5%B7%9E%E8%B0%A2%E8%84%81-tiao-%E6%A5%BC%E9%A5%AF%E5%88%AB%E6%A0%A1%E4%B9%A6%E5%8F%94%E4%BA%91-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E7%99%BD"><span class="toc-number">14.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宣州谢脁[tiǎo]楼饯别校书叔云-唐·李白</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%84%E5%BD%95"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">附录</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E7%99%BD%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">15.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">李白生平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%9C%E7%94%AB%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">15.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">杜甫生平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E9%80%82%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">15.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高适生平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">15.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B0%91%E6%9C%AC%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">民本篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%B1%B1%E5%9D%A1%E7%BE%8A%C2%B7%E6%BD%BC%E5%85%B3%E6%80%80%E5%8F%A4%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%83%C2%B7%E5%BC%A0%E5%85%BB%E6%B5%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《山坡羊·潼关怀古》-元·张养浩</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%A7%82%E7%A5%88%E9%9B%A8%E3%80%8B-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E7%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《观祈雨》-唐·李约</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%AE%E8%BA%AB%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">修身篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%9B%BD%E8%AF%AD%E5%BC%95%E5%8F%A4%E8%B0%9A%E8%AF%AD%E8%8A%82%E9%80%89%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%C2%B7%E6%97%A0%E5%90%8D%E6%B0%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《国语引古谚语节选》-先秦·无名氏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E9%A2%98%E7%AB%B9%E7%9F%B3%E7%94%BB%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E9%83%91%E6%9D%BF%E6%A1%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《题竹石画》-清·郑板桥</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E4%BA%BA%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">用人篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B7%B2%E4%BA%A5%E6%9D%82%E8%AF%97%E5%9B%9B%E9%A6%96-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E9%BE%9A%E8%87%AA%E7%8F%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">已亥杂诗四首-清·龚自珍</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%B0%8F%E9%9B%85%C2%B7%E9%B9%A4%E9%B8%A3%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%C2%B7%E6%97%A0%E5%90%8D%E6%B0%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《小雅·鹤鸣》-先秦·无名氏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%AE%BA%E8%AF%97%E4%BA%94%E7%BB%9D%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E8%B5%B5%E7%BF%BC"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《论诗五绝》-清·赵翼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9D%E5%AD%A6%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">劝学篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%86%AC%E5%A4%9C%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E7%A4%BA%E6%84%8F%E5%AD%90%E8%81%BF%EF%BC%88yu%EF%BC%89%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E9%99%86%E6%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《冬夜读书示意子聿（yù）》-宋·陆游</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%A7%82%E4%B9%A6%E6%9C%89%E6%84%9F%E4%BA%8C%E9%A6%96%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E6%9C%B1%E7%86%B9"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《观书有感二首》-宋·朱熹</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%80%81%E9%BB%84%E7%89%9B%E3%80%8B-%E8%BF%91%E4%BB%A3%C2%B7%E8%87%A7%E5%85%8B%E5%AE%B6"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">《老黄牛》-近代·臧克家</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%98%8E%E5%BF%97%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">明志篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%92%8F%E5%AF%92%E6%9D%BE%E3%80%8B-%E5%8D%97%E5%8C%97%E6%9C%9D%C2%B7%E8%8C%83%E4%BA%91"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《咏寒松》-南北朝·范云</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%80%E6%9E%9D%E8%8A%B1%C2%B7%E4%B8%8D%E6%9C%8D%E8%80%81%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%83%C2%B7%E5%85%B3%E6%B1%89%E5%8D%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《一枝花·不服老》-元·关汉卿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%92%8F%E6%A2%85%E4%B9%9D%E9%A6%96%E4%B9%8B%E4%B8%80%E3%80%8B-%E6%98%8E%C2%B7%E9%AB%98%E5%90%AF"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">《咏梅九首之一》-明·高启</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%BF%B0%E5%BF%97%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E6%B4%AA%E7%A7%80%E5%85%A8"><span class="toc-number">6.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">《述志》-清·洪秀全</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E7%8B%B1%E4%B8%AD%E8%B5%A0%E9%82%B9%E5%AE%B9%E3%80%8B-%E8%BF%91%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%C2%B7%E7%AB%A0%E7%82%B3%E9%BA%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">《狱中赠邹容》-近现代·章炳麟</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%87%AA%E5%98%B2%E3%80%8B-%E9%B2%81%E8%BF%85"><span class="toc-number">6.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">《自嘲》-鲁迅</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%AF%89%E8%A1%B7%E6%83%85%C2%B7%E6%B1%9F%E5%B1%B1%E9%9D%A0%E8%B0%81%E5%AE%88%E3%80%8B-%E2%80%9C%E6%AF%9B%E6%B3%BD%E4%B8%9C%E2%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">6.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">《诉衷情·江山靠谁守》- “毛泽东”</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%85%E5%BB%89%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">清廉篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%8D%9C%E7%AE%97%E5%AD%90%C2%B7%E5%92%8F%E6%A2%85%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E9%99%86%E6%B8%B8"><span class="toc-number">7.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《卜算子·咏梅》-宋·陆游</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BD%90%E5%AE%B6%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">齐家篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E9%83%91%E9%A3%8E%C2%B7%E5%A5%B3%E6%9B%B0%E9%B8%A1%E9%B8%A3%E3%80%8B-%E5%85%88%E7%A7%A6%C2%B7%E6%97%A0%E5%90%8D%E6%B0%8F"><span class="toc-number">8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《郑风·女曰鸡鸣》-先秦·无名氏</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%B5%B4%E6%88%8D%E7%99%BB%E7%A8%8B%E5%8F%A3%E7%A4%BA%E5%AE%B6%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%8B-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E6%9E%97%E5%88%99%E5%BE%90"><span class="toc-number">8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《赴戍登程口示家人》-清·林则徐</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%88%B1%E6%83%85%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">9.</span> <span class="toc-text">爱情篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E5%8F%A4%E6%80%A8%E6%AD%8C%E3%80%8B-%E6%B1%89%C2%B7%E7%AA%A6%E7%8E%84%E5%A6%BB"><span class="toc-number">9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《古怨歌》-汉·窦玄妻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E6%9D%8E%E5%BB%B6%E5%B9%B4%E6%AD%8C%E3%80%8B-%E6%B1%89%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E5%BB%B6%E5%B9%B4"><span class="toc-number">9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">《李延年歌》-汉·李延年</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E7%A6%BB%E6%80%9D%E3%80%8B-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E5%85%83%E7%A8%B9-zhen"><span class="toc-number">9.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">《离思》-唐·元稹(zhěn)</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%80%E5%89%AA%E6%A2%85%C2%B7%E8%88%9F%E8%BF%87%E5%90%B4%E6%B1%9F%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E8%92%8B%E6%8D%B7"><span class="toc-number">9.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">《一剪梅·舟过吴江》-宋·蒋捷</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A5%E5%9B%BD%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">10.</span> <span class="toc-text">报国篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8A%E8%B4%BA%E6%96%B0%E9%83%8E%C2%B7%E9%80%81%E8%83%A1%E9%82%A6%E8%A1%A1%E5%BE%85%E5%88%B6%E8%B5%B4%E6%96%B0%E5%B7%9E%E3%80%8B-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E5%BC%A0%E5%85%83%E5%B9%B2"><span class="toc-number">10.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">《贺新郎·送胡邦衡待制赴新州》-宋·张元干</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A2%85%E5%B2%AD%E4%B8%89%E7%AB%A0-%E9%99%88%E6%AF%85"><span class="toc-number">10.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">梅岭三章-陈毅</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E6%B8%B8%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">11.</span> <span class="toc-text">交游篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E8%B5%A0%E5%8D%A2%E8%B0%8C%EF%BC%88shen%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%88%E8%8A%82%E9%80%89%EF%BC%89-%E8%A5%BF%E6%99%8B%C2%B7%E5%88%98%E7%90%A8"><span class="toc-number">11.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">重赠卢谌（shèn）（节选）-西晋·刘琨</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%81%E6%9D%9C%E5%B0%91%E5%BA%9C%E4%B9%8B%E4%BB%BB%E8%9C%80%E5%B7%9E-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E5%8B%83"><span class="toc-number">11.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">送杜少府之任蜀州-唐·王勃</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%98%E6%9D%8E%E5%87%9D%E5%B9%BD%E5%B1%85-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E8%B4%BE%E5%B2%9B"><span class="toc-number">11.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">题李凝幽居-唐·贾岛</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E8%91%A3%E4%BC%A0%E7%95%99%E5%88%AB-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E8%8B%8F%E8%BD%BC"><span class="toc-number">11.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">和董传留别-宋·苏轼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%B2%E6%80%9D%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">12.</span> <span class="toc-text">哲思篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%99%BB%E9%B9%B3%E9%9B%80%E6%A5%BC-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E4%B9%8B%E6%B6%A3"><span class="toc-number">12.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">登鹳雀楼-唐·王之涣</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%84%9F%E5%B7%AB%E5%B7%9E%E8%8D%A0%E8%8F%9C-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E9%AB%98%E5%8A%9B%E5%A3%AB"><span class="toc-number">12.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">感巫州荠菜-唐·高力士</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B9%8C%E8%A1%A3%E5%B7%B7-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E5%88%98%E7%A6%B9%E9%94%A1"><span class="toc-number">12.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">乌衣巷-唐·刘禹锡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B5%AA%E6%B7%98%E6%B2%99%E4%BB%A4%C2%B7%E4%BC%8A%E5%90%95%E4%B8%A4%E8%A1%B0%E7%BF%81-%E5%AE%8B%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E5%AE%89%E7%9F%B3"><span class="toc-number">12.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">浪淘沙令·伊吕两衰翁-宋·王安石</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%92%93%E5%8F%B0%E9%A2%98%E7%92%A7-%E9%83%81%E8%BE%BE%E5%A4%AB"><span class="toc-number">12.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">钓台题璧-郁达夫</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%B8%E8%A5%9F%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">13.</span> <span class="toc-text">胸襟篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%86-qiang-%E8%BF%9B%E9%85%92-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E7%99%BD"><span class="toc-number">13.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">将[qiāng]进酒-唐·李白</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%B1%E4%B8%AD%E9%A2%98%E5%A3%81-%E6%B8%85%C2%B7%E8%B0%AD%E5%97%A3%E5%90%8C"><span class="toc-number">13.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">狱中题壁-清·谭嗣同</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%81%E5%9B%AD%E6%98%A5%C2%B7%E9%9B%AA-%E6%AF%9B%E6%B3%BD%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">13.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">沁园春·雪-毛泽东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E8%A7%A3%E6%94%BE%E5%86%9B%E5%8D%A0%E9%A2%86%E5%8D%97%E4%BA%AC-%E6%AF%9B%E6%B3%BD%E4%B8%9C"><span class="toc-number">13.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">人民解放军占领南京-毛泽东</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%BB%A1%E6%B1%9F%E7%BA%A2%C2%B7%E5%92%8C%E9%83%AD%E6%B2%AB%E8%8B%A5%E5%90%8C%E5%BF%97"><span class="toc-number">13.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">满江红·和郭沫若同志</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B1%B1%E6%B0%B4%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">14.</span> <span class="toc-text">山水篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%A1%E5%8C%97%E5%9B%BA%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%8B-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E7%8E%8B%E6%B9%BE"><span class="toc-number">14.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">次北固山下-唐·王湾</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%A3%E5%B7%9E%E8%B0%A2%E8%84%81-tiao-%E6%A5%BC%E9%A5%AF%E5%88%AB%E6%A0%A1%E4%B9%A6%E5%8F%94%E4%BA%91-%E5%94%90%C2%B7%E6%9D%8E%E7%99%BD"><span class="toc-number">14.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">宣州谢脁[tiǎo]楼饯别校书叔云-唐·李白</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%84%E5%BD%95"><span class="toc-number">15.</span> <span class="toc-text">附录</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%8E%E7%99%BD%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">15.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">李白生平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9D%9C%E7%94%AB%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">15.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">杜甫生平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E9%80%82%E7%94%9F%E5%B9%B3"><span class="toc-number">15.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高适生平</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">15.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div 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@@ -333,7 +333,7 @@ <h3 id="基本盘扎实-跳芭蕾的女孩都有一双粗腿">基本盘扎实-
 <h2 id="毛式企业管理">毛式企业管理</h2>
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id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3%E2%80%93%E4%BB%A5%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">战略思想–以客户为中心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有价值的创新</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%B4%E7%BB%95%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">围绕商业需要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%9A%E7%84%A6%E4%B8%BB%E8%88%AA%E9%81%93%EF%BC%8C%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E4%B8%BB%E5%AF%BC%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">聚焦主航道，市场主导应用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%A7%E6%89%BF%E5%BC%8F%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">继承式创新</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A5%B1%E5%92%8C%E6%94%BB%E5%87%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">饱和攻击</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E5%B0%B1%E5%80%BC%E5%A5%BD%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好的人才就值好价格</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1-%E8%82%A1%E6%9D%83%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">员工持股+股权激励</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%89%88-%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E9%9B%86%E8%B5%84%EF%BC%88%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%90%B8%E5%82%A8%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一版-内部集资（员工投资行为，吸储）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E7%89%88-%E8%99%9A%E6%8B%9F%E8%82%A1%E6%9D%83%EF%BC%8C%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%EF%BC%88%E7%95%99%E4%BA%BA%E8%BF%87%E5%86%AC%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二版-虚拟股权，重点激励（留人过冬）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E7%89%88-%E9%A5%B1%E5%92%8C%E9%85%8D%E8%82%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第三版-饱和配股</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E7%89%88-TUP%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">第四版- TUP计划</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要完美主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE-%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E5%A4%9A%E5%96%9D%E5%92%96%E5%95%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">开放-全球化多喝咖啡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B2%E9%83%A8%E8%80%83%E6%A0%B8%E2%80%93%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E4%BD%BF%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">干部考核–团队利益使命</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E9%98%9F%E4%BC%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%B7%9F%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织队伍要跟上业务</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A9%E5%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩张</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%B5%E5%BE%A1%E5%A4%9A%E5%85%83%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E7%BA%A2%E8%88%9E%E9%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">抵御多元化的红舞鞋</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E8%80%81%E5%AE%9E%E5%AE%9E%E7%A7%8D%E5%BA%84%E7%A8%BC"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">老老实实种庄稼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A0%E9%A2%86%E5%88%B6%E9%AB%98%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">占领制高点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B6%E8%B4%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">并购</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%89%A9%E5%BC%A0%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">华为的扩张模式</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E7%9A%84%E8%BE%A9%E8%AF%81%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业经营的辩证法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%8D%E8%BF%BD%E6%B1%82%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">经营中不追求完美</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E6%80%A7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E5%A4%9A%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于系统性思维多说一句</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%B0%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8E%E5%A6%A5%E5%8D%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">灰度与妥协</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%94%B9%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理改进</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%83%E5%8F%8D%E5%AF%B9"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">七反对</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%8A%97%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E6%80%A0%E6%83%B0"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对抗组织怠惰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%9B%98%E6%89%8E%E5%AE%9E-%E8%B7%B3%E8%8A%AD%E8%95%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%B3%E5%AD%A9%E9%83%BD%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%8C%E7%B2%97%E8%85%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">基本盘扎实-跳芭蕾的女孩都有一双粗腿</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AF%9B%E5%BC%8F%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">毛式企业管理</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5%E6%80%9D%E6%83%B3%E2%80%93%E4%BB%A5%E5%AE%A2%E6%88%B7%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">战略思想–以客户为中心</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有价值的创新</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%B4%E7%BB%95%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">围绕商业需要</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%81%9A%E7%84%A6%E4%B8%BB%E8%88%AA%E9%81%93%EF%BC%8C%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E4%B8%BB%E5%AF%BC%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">聚焦主航道，市场主导应用</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%A7%E6%89%BF%E5%BC%8F%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">继承式创新</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A5%B1%E5%92%8C%E6%94%BB%E5%87%BB"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">饱和攻击</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">人才</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E5%B0%B1%E5%80%BC%E5%A5%BD%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好的人才就值好价格</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1-%E8%82%A1%E6%9D%83%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">员工持股+股权激励</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%89%88-%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E9%9B%86%E8%B5%84%EF%BC%88%E5%91%98%E5%B7%A5%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%90%B8%E5%82%A8%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一版-内部集资（员工投资行为，吸储）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E7%89%88-%E8%99%9A%E6%8B%9F%E8%82%A1%E6%9D%83%EF%BC%8C%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%EF%BC%88%E7%95%99%E4%BA%BA%E8%BF%87%E5%86%AC%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二版-虚拟股权，重点激励（留人过冬）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E7%89%88-%E9%A5%B1%E5%92%8C%E9%85%8D%E8%82%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第三版-饱和配股</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E7%89%88-TUP%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92"><span class="toc-number">3.2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">第四版- TUP计划</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要完美主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE-%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E5%A4%9A%E5%96%9D%E5%92%96%E5%95%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">开放-全球化多喝咖啡</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B2%E9%83%A8%E8%80%83%E6%A0%B8%E2%80%93%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E4%BD%BF%E5%91%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">干部考核–团队利益使命</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E9%98%9F%E4%BC%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%B7%9F%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">组织队伍要跟上业务</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%89%A9%E5%BC%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">扩张</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%B5%E5%BE%A1%E5%A4%9A%E5%85%83%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E7%BA%A2%E8%88%9E%E9%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">抵御多元化的红舞鞋</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%80%81%E8%80%81%E5%AE%9E%E5%AE%9E%E7%A7%8D%E5%BA%84%E7%A8%BC"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">老老实实种庄稼</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%A0%E9%A2%86%E5%88%B6%E9%AB%98%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">占领制高点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B6%E8%B4%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">并购</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%89%A9%E5%BC%A0%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">华为的扩张模式</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E7%9A%84%E8%BE%A9%E8%AF%81%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">企业经营的辩证法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%8D%E8%BF%BD%E6%B1%82%E5%AE%8C%E7%BE%8E"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">经营中不追求完美</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E6%80%A7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E5%A4%9A%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%A5"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">关于系统性思维多说一句</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%81%B0%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8E%E5%A6%A5%E5%8D%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">灰度与妥协</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%94%B9%E8%BF%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">管理改进</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%83%E5%8F%8D%E5%AF%B9"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">七反对</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E6%8A%97%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E6%80%A0%E6%83%B0"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对抗组织怠惰</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%9B%98%E6%89%8E%E5%AE%9E-%E8%B7%B3%E8%8A%AD%E8%95%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%B3%E5%AD%A9%E9%83%BD%E6%9C%89%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%8C%E7%B2%97%E8%85%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">基本盘扎实-跳芭蕾的女孩都有一双粗腿</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AF%9B%E5%BC%8F%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">毛式企业管理</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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@@ -401,7 +401,7 @@ <h3 id="赚钱之道其实很简单">赚钱之道其实很简单</h3>
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-40px">3.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">X.com <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://x.com/ssvxyz/status/1787647965336867103">揭露财富自由之路的本质  </a><a href="#fnref:3" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:4"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">4.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">月光博客 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.williamlong.info/archives/6088.html">在中国有多少钱才算财务自由?</a><a href="#fnref:4" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div class="post-copyright__author_box"><a class="post-copyright__author_img" href="https://github.com/" title="头像"><img class="post-copyright__author_img_back" 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%A1%E6%B6%A6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">胡润报告</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%B2%E5%BF%B5%E4%B9%8B%E7%81%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">欲念之火</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E9%A2%9D%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金额的认知</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E7%99%BE%E4%B8%87%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%B7%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人均百万的迷失</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E9%92%B1%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%87%E5%87%86"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">有钱人标准</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%92%8C%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">金钱和自由的认知</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的本质</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%8B%93%E8%A2%AB%E5%8A%A8%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%9E%E5%8E%9A%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开拓被动收入渠道，增厚资产</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E6%AE%96%E4%BE%9B%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">养殖供养</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E6%89%8B%E7%9B%98"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的对手盘</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E6%99%BA%E6%A0%87%E5%87%86"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自由的心智标准</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E7%9A%84%E7%84%A6%E8%99%91"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">通胀的焦虑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的自由</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%84%E5%AE%B6%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的庄家路线</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%90%E5%BA%84%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">坐庄转移</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E5%B1%82%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">各层的角色</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E7%9A%AE%E6%9D%A1%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的皮条路线</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E5%B1%82%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%AE%89%E6%85%B0%E5%89%82"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">下层人民安慰剂</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E5%85%88%E7%84%A6%E8%99%91%E5%90%8E%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产先焦虑后方案</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%9A%E9%92%B1%E4%B9%8B%E9%81%93%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%9E%E5%BE%88%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">赚钱之道其实很简单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%A1%E6%B6%A6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">胡润报告</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%AC%B2%E5%BF%B5%E4%B9%8B%E7%81%AB"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">欲念之火</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E9%A2%9D%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金额的认知</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%BA%E5%9D%87%E7%99%BE%E4%B8%87%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%B7%E5%A4%B1"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">人均百万的迷失</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E9%92%B1%E4%BA%BA%E6%A0%87%E5%87%86"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">有钱人标准</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%92%8C%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">金钱和自由的认知</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的本质</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E6%8B%93%E8%A2%AB%E5%8A%A8%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E6%B8%A0%E9%81%93%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%9E%E5%8E%9A%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开拓被动收入渠道，增厚资产</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%BB%E6%AE%96%E4%BE%9B%E5%85%BB"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">养殖供养</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%AF%B9%E6%89%8B%E7%9B%98"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的对手盘</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E6%99%BA%E6%A0%87%E5%87%86"><span class="toc-number">4.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自由的心智标准</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E7%9A%84%E7%84%A6%E8%99%91"><span class="toc-number">4.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">通胀的焦虑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E7%9A%84%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1"><span class="toc-number">4.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">真正的自由</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%84%E5%AE%B6%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的庄家路线</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9D%90%E5%BA%84%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">坐庄转移</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%84%E5%B1%82%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">各层的角色</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E7%9A%AE%E6%9D%A1%E8%B7%AF%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">财务自由的皮条路线</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E5%B1%82%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%AE%89%E6%85%B0%E5%89%82"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">下层人民安慰剂</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E5%85%88%E7%84%A6%E8%99%91%E5%90%8E%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88"><span class="toc-number">6.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产先焦虑后方案</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%9A%E9%92%B1%E4%B9%8B%E9%81%93%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%9E%E5%BE%88%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95"><span class="toc-number">6.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">赚钱之道其实很简单</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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diff --git "a/\350\264\253\347\251\267\346\200\235\347\273\264\344\270\216\347\240\264\345\261\200.html" "b/\350\264\253\347\251\267\346\200\235\347\273\264\344\270\216\347\240\264\345\261\200.html"
index 906e576a07..d566f4ffb3 100644
--- "a/\350\264\253\347\251\267\346\200\235\347\273\264\344\270\216\347\240\264\345\261\200.html"
+++ "b/\350\264\253\347\251\267\346\200\235\347\273\264\344\270\216\347\240\264\345\261\200.html"
@@ -380,7 +380,7 @@ <h2 id="资产与负债">资产与负债</h2>
 </ul>
 <h3 id="房产必定等于资产？">房产必定等于资产？</h3>
 <p>No！如房屋透过出租，抵消成本费用，并产生出业主的正向现金流，才可算是“资产”。不会产生正向现金流收入的房屋，充其量只是负债。</p>
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class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A4%E9%A9%BE%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">护驾贫穷的思维</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E5%BA%A6%E2%80%9C%E8%8A%82%E7%BA%A6%E2%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">过度“节约”</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%9D%E5%95%AC%E5%8D%B4%E5%8F%88%E5%A5%BD%E6%94%80%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">吝啬却又好攀比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E7%BB%9F%E4%BF%9D%E5%AE%88%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%95%E6%8B%85%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">传统保守，怕担风险</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E7%9F%A5%E9%87%8F%E5%85%A5%E4%B8%BA%E5%87%BA%EF%BC%8C%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E5%AF%BC%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">只知量入为出，没有目标导向</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%97%E5%AE%B3%E4%BA%BA%E5%BF%83%E6%80%81%E5%92%8C%E5%81%8F%E6%BF%80%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">受害人心态和偏激思考</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%87%92%E4%BA%8E%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">懒于思考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%8C%E5%8D%9A%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">赌博思维</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%83%AD%E8%A1%B7%E5%BD%93%E4%B8%8B%E4%BA%AB%E5%8F%97%EF%BC%8C%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">热衷当下享受，消费主义</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何贫穷？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BF%BB%E8%BA%AB%E8%A6%81%E6%95%B4%E5%90%88%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">翻身要整合资源</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%A4%92%E5%A5%96%E8%8B%A6%E9%9A%BE%E4%B8%8D%E8%B0%99%E4%B8%96%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要褒奖苦难不谙世事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会真相</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E8%A7%82%E5%BF%B5%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">个人观念改变的心理因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E9%87%91%E6%B5%81%E8%B1%A1%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">现金流象限</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%B4%E5%AF%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%EF%BC%9AB-I%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92%E5%BD%A2"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">致富的关键：B-I三角形</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#B%E3%80%8C%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%AE%B6%E3%80%8D%E5%81%A5%E5%85%A8%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E4%B8%89%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">B「企业家」健全架构三要素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%93%E4%B8%9A%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%E4%BA%94%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">专业运作五要素</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0B-I%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%E7%9A%843%E4%B8%AA%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">学习B-I三角运作的3个方法</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%8E%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">资产与负债</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%BF%E4%BA%A7%E5%BF%85%E5%AE%9A%E7%AD%89%E4%BA%8E%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">房产必定等于资产？</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div 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class="content is-center"><div class="date"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history fa-fw"></i> 2025-06-26</div><div class="title">财务自由</div></div></a></div></div></div><hr/><div id="post-comment"><div class="comment-head"><div class="comment-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-comments"></i><span> 评论</span></div><div class="comment-randomInfo"><a onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%A4%E9%A9%BE%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">护驾贫穷的思维</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%87%E5%BA%A6%E2%80%9C%E8%8A%82%E7%BA%A6%E2%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">过度“节约”</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%9D%E5%95%AC%E5%8D%B4%E5%8F%88%E5%A5%BD%E6%94%80%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">吝啬却又好攀比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%A0%E7%BB%9F%E4%BF%9D%E5%AE%88%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%95%E6%8B%85%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">传统保守，怕担风险</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E7%9F%A5%E9%87%8F%E5%85%A5%E4%B8%BA%E5%87%BA%EF%BC%8C%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E5%AF%BC%E5%90%91"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">只知量入为出，没有目标导向</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%97%E5%AE%B3%E4%BA%BA%E5%BF%83%E6%80%81%E5%92%8C%E5%81%8F%E6%BF%80%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">受害人心态和偏激思考</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%87%92%E4%BA%8E%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">懒于思考</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%8C%E5%8D%9A%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">赌博思维</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%83%AD%E8%A1%B7%E5%BD%93%E4%B8%8B%E4%BA%AB%E5%8F%97%EF%BC%8C%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">热衷当下享受，消费主义</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%B4%AB%E7%A9%B7%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">为何贫穷？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BF%BB%E8%BA%AB%E8%A6%81%E6%95%B4%E5%90%88%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">翻身要整合资源</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E8%A4%92%E5%A5%96%E8%8B%A6%E9%9A%BE%E4%B8%8D%E8%B0%99%E4%B8%96%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要褒奖苦难不谙世事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会真相</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E8%A7%82%E5%BF%B5%E6%94%B9%E5%8F%98%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">个人观念改变的心理因素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E9%87%91%E6%B5%81%E8%B1%A1%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">现金流象限</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%B4%E5%AF%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%EF%BC%9AB-I%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92%E5%BD%A2"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">致富的关键：B-I三角形</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#B%E3%80%8C%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%AE%B6%E3%80%8D%E5%81%A5%E5%85%A8%E6%9E%B6%E6%9E%84%E4%B8%89%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">5.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">B「企业家」健全架构三要素</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%93%E4%B8%9A%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%E4%BA%94%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A0"><span class="toc-number">5.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">专业运作五要素</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0B-I%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%E7%9A%843%E4%B8%AA%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">学习B-I三角运作的3个方法</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%8E%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">资产与负债</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%BF%E4%BA%A7%E5%BF%85%E5%AE%9A%E7%AD%89%E4%BA%8E%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">房产必定等于资产？</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div 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diff --git "a/\350\265\232\344\270\215\345\210\260\350\256\244\347\237\245\350\214\203\345\233\264\345\244\226\347\232\204\351\222\261.html" "b/\350\265\232\344\270\215\345\210\260\350\256\244\347\237\245\350\214\203\345\233\264\345\244\226\347\232\204\351\222\261.html"
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--- "a/\350\265\232\344\270\215\345\210\260\350\256\244\347\237\245\350\214\203\345\233\264\345\244\226\347\232\204\351\222\261.html"
+++ "b/\350\265\232\344\270\215\345\210\260\350\256\244\347\237\245\350\214\203\345\233\264\345\244\226\347\232\204\351\222\261.html"
@@ -240,7 +240,7 @@ <h3 id="力吹美股要当心">力吹美股要当心</h3>
 </li>
 </ul>
 <p>在美股的交易者长期欢乐，死得特别痛快。所以你在自媒体上很少看到美股的差评；但大A的交易者每天都在牢里拿着手机，在自媒体上发表骂街的言论。<strong>可以说一个是酒池肉林，一个是空乏其身</strong>。</p>
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diff --git "a/\350\267\263\345\210\260\344\275\240\347\232\204\351\253\230\347\273\264\347\251\272\351\227\264.html" "b/\350\267\263\345\210\260\344\275\240\347\232\204\351\253\230\347\273\264\347\251\272\351\227\264.html"
index 6102fdb5b2..821758cc63 100644
--- "a/\350\267\263\345\210\260\344\275\240\347\232\204\351\253\230\347\273\264\347\251\272\351\227\264.html"
+++ "b/\350\267\263\345\210\260\344\275\240\347\232\204\351\253\230\347\273\264\347\251\272\351\227\264.html"
@@ -248,7 +248,7 @@ <h3 id="周期">周期</h3>
 <p>读懂大周期，是超级能力（知识），辅以在一段段的小时间周期里修心（情绪），不断磨练升级。</p>
 <h3 id="结语">结语</h3>
 <p><u>努力跳到你的更高维度，不要做在褶皱纸面上行进被推得东倒西歪的虫</u>。</p>
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class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%8E%E6%9B%BC%E5%87%A0%E4%BD%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黎曼几何</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%A9%E7%90%86%E8%BF%BD%E4%B8%8A%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">物理追上数学</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E6%8A%BD%E8%B1%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">非理性领域抽象</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">知识</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%BB%8E%E6%9B%BC%E5%87%A0%E4%BD%95"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">黎曼几何</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%A9%E7%90%86%E8%BF%BD%E4%B8%8A%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">物理追上数学</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E6%8A%BD%E8%B1%A1"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">非理性领域抽象</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">知识</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">情绪</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" 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diff --git "a/\350\272\253\344\273\275\350\257\201\345\217\267\347\240\201\350\247\204\345\210\231.html" "b/\350\272\253\344\273\275\350\257\201\345\217\267\347\240\201\350\247\204\345\210\231.html"
index 5fb087d01e..8ba5398aec 100644
--- "a/\350\272\253\344\273\275\350\257\201\345\217\267\347\240\201\350\247\204\345\210\231.html"
+++ "b/\350\272\253\344\273\275\350\257\201\345\217\267\347\240\201\350\247\204\345\210\231.html"
@@ -540,7 +540,7 @@ <h2 id="校验码算法">校验码算法</h2>
 <p>采用ISO7064：1983，MOD11-2校验算法</p>
 <figure class="highlight javascript"><table><tr><td class="gutter"><pre><span class="line">1</span><br><span class="line">2</span><br><span class="line">3</span><br><span class="line">4</span><br><span class="line">5</span><br><span class="line">6</span><br><span class="line">7</span><br><span class="line">8</span><br><span class="line">9</span><br><span class="line">10</span><br><span class="line">11</span><br><span class="line">12</span><br><span class="line">13</span><br><span class="line">14</span><br><span class="line">15</span><br><span class="line">16</span><br><span class="line">17</span><br><span class="line">18</span><br></pre></td><td class="code"><pre><span class="line"><span class="keyword">function</span> <span class="title function_">checkIdCard</span>(<span class="params">idCard</span>) &#123;</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">//校验位字符对应的数字</span></span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">var</span> checkNum= [<span class="string">&#x27;1&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;0&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;X&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;9&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;8&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;7&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;6&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;5&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;4&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;3&#x27;</span>,<span class="string">&#x27;2&#x27;</span>];</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">//权重</span></span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">var</span> weight = [<span class="number">7</span>,<span class="number">9</span>,<span class="number">10</span>,<span class="number">5</span>,<span class="number">8</span>,<span class="number">4</span>,<span class="number">2</span>,<span class="number">1</span>,<span class="number">6</span>,<span class="number">3</span>,<span class="number">7</span>,<span class="number">9</span>,<span class="number">10</span>,<span class="number">5</span>,<span class="number">8</span>,<span class="number">4</span>,<span class="number">2</span>];</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">//校验位</span></span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">var</span> checkCode = idCard.<span class="title function_">substring</span>(<span class="number">17</span>);</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">//前17位数字</span></span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">var</span> idCard17=idCard.<span class="title function_">substring</span>(<span class="number">0</span>,<span class="number">17</span>);</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">//计算校验位</span></span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">var</span> sum=<span class="number">0</span>;</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">for</span> (<span class="keyword">var</span> i=<span class="number">0</span>;i&lt;<span class="number">17</span>;i++)&#123;</span><br><span class="line">        sum += idCard17[i]*weight[i];    </span><br><span class="line">    &#125;</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">var</span> mod=sum%<span class="number">11</span>;</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">//校验</span></span><br><span class="line">    <span class="keyword">return</span> checkNum[mod] == checkCode;</span><br><span class="line">&#125;</span><br></pre></td></tr></table></figure>
 <h2 id="参考">参考</h2>
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id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9C%B0%E5%9D%80%E7%A0%81"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">地址码</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9C%81%E4%BB%BD%E7%A0%81"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">省份码</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%BA%E5%8E%BF%E7%A0%81"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">区县码</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A1%BA%E5%BA%8F%E7%A0%81"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">顺序码</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%BA%E5%8E%BF%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E4%B9%8B%E6%9C%80"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">区县人口之最</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#24-%E5%B9%B4%E5%8C%BA%E5%8E%BF%E5%B8%B8%E4%BD%8F%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3-Top25"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">24 年区县常住人口 Top25</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%A1%E9%AA%8C%E7%A0%81%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">校验码算法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8C%BA%E5%8E%BF%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E4%B9%8B%E6%9C%80"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">区县人口之最</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#24-%E5%B9%B4%E5%8C%BA%E5%8E%BF%E5%B8%B8%E4%BD%8F%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3-Top25"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">24 年区县常住人口 Top25</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%A1%E9%AA%8C%E7%A0%81%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">校验码算法</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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diff --git "a/\350\275\257\344\273\266\345\267\245\347\250\213-\347\220\206\345\277\265\344\270\216\344\277\256\344\271\240.html" "b/\350\275\257\344\273\266\345\267\245\347\250\213-\347\220\206\345\277\265\344\270\216\344\277\256\344\271\240.html"
index c4afa4b3c9..e23d10e0d8 100644
--- "a/\350\275\257\344\273\266\345\267\245\347\250\213-\347\220\206\345\277\265\344\270\216\344\277\256\344\271\240.html"
+++ "b/\350\275\257\344\273\266\345\267\245\347\250\213-\347\220\206\345\277\265\344\270\216\344\277\256\344\271\240.html"
@@ -415,7 +415,7 @@ <h3 id="结合自己的学习风格">结合自己的学习风格</h3>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>泰山不拒细壤，故能成其高</p>
 <p>江河不拒细流，故能成其深</p>
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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8E%E7%AE%80%E7%BA%A6%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E3%80%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">『简约主义』</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">理念篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AF%E7%BB%B4%E6%8A%A4%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">可维护的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E7%9B%B4%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%9A%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件工程直面的问题：复杂性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%8D%AF%EF%BC%9A%E6%8B%BF%E6%9D%A5%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂性的解药：拿来主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%EF%BC%9A%E9%9D%A2%E5%90%91%E7%BB%B4%E6%8A%A4%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">高质量软件的目标：面向维护的设计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E5%A5%BD%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">做好设计有哪些要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AD%A6%E6%83%95%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">警惕过早的优化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">思维武器</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#CTO-%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E5%86%8D%E8%BF%9B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">CTO 要求再进一步</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E7%86%B5%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">从熵的角度看软件生命周期</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%86%B5%E7%9A%84%E4%B9%B1%E7%82%96%E4%B8%8E%E6%83%8A%E5%96%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">熵的乱炖与惊喜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息熵</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%AE%E4%B9%A0%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">修习篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">重构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">设计模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">领域设计模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AC%E5%AD%A4%E5%9B%9B%E5%89%91"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">独孤四剑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E3%80%8E%E7%AE%80%E7%BA%A6%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E3%80%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">『简约主义』</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%90%86%E5%BF%B5%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">理念篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AF%E7%BB%B4%E6%8A%A4%E7%9A%84%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">可维护的重要性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E7%9B%B4%E9%9D%A2%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%EF%BC%9A%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">软件工程直面的问题：复杂性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%A3%E8%8D%AF%EF%BC%9A%E6%8B%BF%E6%9D%A5%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">复杂性的解药：拿来主义</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AB%98%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%EF%BC%9A%E9%9D%A2%E5%90%91%E7%BB%B4%E6%8A%A4%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">高质量软件的目标：面向维护的设计</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E5%A5%BD%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">做好设计有哪些要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AD%A6%E6%83%95%E8%BF%87%E6%97%A9%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">警惕过早的优化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8"><span class="toc-number">2.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">思维武器</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#CTO-%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E5%86%8D%E8%BF%9B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">CTO 要求再进一步</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E7%86%B5%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6%E7%9C%8B%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">从熵的角度看软件生命周期</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%86%B5%E7%9A%84%E4%B9%B1%E7%82%96%E4%B8%8E%E6%83%8A%E5%96%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.9.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">熵的乱炖与惊喜</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%86%B5"><span class="toc-number">2.9.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息熵</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%AE%E4%B9%A0%E7%AF%87"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">修习篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%8D%E6%9E%84"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">重构</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">设计模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">领域设计模式</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AC%E5%AD%A4%E5%9B%9B%E5%89%91"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">独孤四剑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%B2%BE%E8%BF%9B%EF%BC%9A%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">精进：持续学习</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E5%90%88%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0%E9%A3%8E%E6%A0%BC"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">结合自己的学习风格</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" 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index 0fd0b937fa..00709799ff 100644
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+++ "b/\350\275\257\344\273\266\347\232\204\344\275\223\351\207\215.html"
@@ -229,7 +229,7 @@ <h3 id="教训经验">教训经验</h3>
 <p>兴衰是常事，看《浪潮之巅》你能懂更多</p>
 </li>
 </ol>
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diff --git "a/\350\275\257\344\273\266\347\232\204\344\277\241\345\277\203.html" "b/\350\275\257\344\273\266\347\232\204\344\277\241\345\277\203.html"
index 2b675697ee..9ca1b36668 100644
--- "a/\350\275\257\344\273\266\347\232\204\344\277\241\345\277\203.html"
+++ "b/\350\275\257\344\273\266\347\232\204\344\277\241\345\277\203.html"
@@ -336,7 +336,7 @@ <h4 id="挑战：">挑战：</h4>
 <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <p>写单测这部分不是空谈，我们真有在实践，效果不错</p>
 <h1>参考</h1>
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toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">单测篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何建立对自己代码的信心</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%80%9F%E5%A4%96%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">借外力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%83%E5%86%85%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">练内功</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E5%8D%95%E6%B5%8B%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对单测的看法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E7%96%91%E5%A3%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">质疑声</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9A%E6%80%A7%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">定性来看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E6%B5%8B%E9%AB%98%E8%A6%86%E7%9B%96%E7%9A%84%E9%95%BF%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">单测高覆盖的长周期好处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E6%B5%8B%E7%9A%84FIRST%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">单测的FIRST原则</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6%E5%8F%8A%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现状及特点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">现状</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%97%9B%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">痛点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%92%E6%A0%B9%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%B0%B1%E6%98%AF%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E3%80%82"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">归根到底，就是成本问题。</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%8A%A8%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E8%8D%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自动化解药</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E6%80%81%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">静态代码分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%95%E5%88%B6%E5%9B%9E%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">录制回放</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优势</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A5%E5%8F%A3%E5%B1%82%E7%BA%A7%E7%94%A8%E4%BE%8B%E5%BD%95%E5%88%B6%E5%9B%9E%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">接口层级用例录制回放</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%A3%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">方案优劣势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%81%9A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何做？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98%EF%BC%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">挑战：</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" 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toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">单测篇</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E5%B7%B1%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何建立对自己代码的信心</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%80%9F%E5%A4%96%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">借外力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%83%E5%86%85%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">练内功</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E5%8D%95%E6%B5%8B%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对单测的看法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A8%E7%96%91%E5%A3%B0"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">质疑声</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9A%E6%80%A7%E6%9D%A5%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">定性来看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E6%B5%8B%E9%AB%98%E8%A6%86%E7%9B%96%E7%9A%84%E9%95%BF%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E5%A5%BD%E5%A4%84"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">单测高覆盖的长周期好处</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8D%95%E6%B5%8B%E7%9A%84FIRST%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">单测的FIRST原则</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6%E5%8F%8A%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现状及特点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6"><span class="toc-number">2.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">现状</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%97%9B%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">2.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">痛点</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%92%E6%A0%B9%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%B0%B1%E6%98%AF%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E3%80%82"><span class="toc-number">2.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">归根到底，就是成本问题。</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%8A%A8%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E8%8D%AF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">自动化解药</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%99%E6%80%81%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">静态代码分析</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">大模型</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BD%95%E5%88%B6%E5%9B%9E%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">录制回放</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">优势</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8E%A5%E5%8F%A3%E5%B1%82%E7%BA%A7%E7%94%A8%E4%BE%8B%E5%BD%95%E5%88%B6%E5%9B%9E%E6%94%BE"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">接口层级用例录制回放</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%A3%E5%8A%BF"><span 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index 853e020192..d58bb6aa5e 100644
--- "a/\350\277\207\346\227\251\347\232\204\344\274\230\345\214\226\346\230\257\347\275\252\346\201\266\344\271\213\346\272\220.html"
+++ "b/\350\277\207\346\227\251\347\232\204\344\274\230\345\214\226\346\230\257\347\275\252\346\201\266\344\271\213\346\272\220.html"
@@ -242,7 +242,7 @@ <h3 id="简略剖析">简略剖析</h3>
 <p>应该在正确抽象层级进行优化</p>
 </blockquote>
 <p><strong>3. 容易关注不重要的部分，而忽略行动和目标本身，造成项目进度失控</strong></p>
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diff --git "a/\351\200\206\345\220\221\345\267\245\347\250\213\351\230\262\346\212\244.html" "b/\351\200\206\345\220\221\345\267\245\347\250\213\351\230\262\346\212\244.html"
index f20c575944..648b1a801e 100644
--- "a/\351\200\206\345\220\221\345\267\245\347\250\213\351\230\262\346\212\244.html"
+++ "b/\351\200\206\345\220\221\345\267\245\347\250\213\351\230\262\346\212\244.html"
@@ -317,7 +317,7 @@ <h2 id="前端-H5-代码防护手段">前端 H5 代码防护手段</h2>
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class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码混淆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%81%9A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么做？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">和加密的差异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B2Hook"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">防Hook</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A0%E5%A3%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">加壳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#App-%E6%89%AB%E6%8F%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%8A%A0%E5%9B%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">App 扫描与加固</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li 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class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">代码混淆</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E5%81%9A%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么做？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%92%8C%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">和加密的差异</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B2Hook"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">防Hook</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%A0%E5%A3%B3"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">加壳</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#App-%E6%89%AB%E6%8F%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%8A%A0%E5%9B%BA"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">App 扫描与加固</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%B0%83%E8%AF%95%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E6%9C%89%E5%93%AA%E4%BA%9B"><span class="toc-number">6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反调试技术有哪些</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%89%8D%E7%AB%AF-H5-%E4%BB%A3%E7%A0%81%E9%98%B2%E6%8A%A4%E6%89%8B%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">7.</span> <span class="toc-text">前端 H5 代码防护手段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">8.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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@@ -262,7 +262,7 @@ <h3 id="功率">功率</h3>
 <h2 id="社会代谢率">社会代谢率</h2>
 <p><strong>对我们人类而言，每天需要大约2000大卡的食物热量，这相当于100w的代谢率，和一只白炽灯的电功率相当</strong></p>
 <p>但除此之外，我们还需要住房，暖气，灯光，汽车，道路，飞机，计算机等，举例支持一个普通人在美国生活所需的代谢率增至惊人的<strong>1.1万</strong>瓦特，<u>这一社会代谢率相当于大约12头大象的需求总量</u>，在从生物向社会动物转变过程中，我们的总人口从几百万到了现金的70亿＋，能源和资源危机就不足为奇了。</p>
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class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">重量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B9%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">容量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">角度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E8%BF%9B%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">时间进制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%AA%E5%BC%82%E7%9A%8412am"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">怪异的12am</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%A9%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">温度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">能量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9F%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">功率</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%BB%A3%E8%B0%A2%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会代谢率</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" title="三国人物年龄与杂记"><img 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class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">重量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">力</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%B9%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">容量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%92%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">角度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E8%BF%9B%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">时间进制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%AA%E5%BC%82%E7%9A%8412am"><span class="toc-number">1.6.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">怪异的12am</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B8%A9%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">温度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%83%BD%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">能量</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8A%9F%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">1.9.</span> <span class="toc-text">功率</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%BB%A3%E8%B0%A2%E7%8E%87"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会代谢率</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img 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diff --git "a/\351\230\205\350\257\273-\350\241\250\350\276\276-\345\206\231\344\275\234\347\232\204\350\256\255\347\273\203.html" "b/\351\230\205\350\257\273-\350\241\250\350\276\276-\345\206\231\344\275\234\347\232\204\350\256\255\347\273\203.html"
index 92fb443c82..d38c31f71a 100644
--- "a/\351\230\205\350\257\273-\350\241\250\350\276\276-\345\206\231\344\275\234\347\232\204\350\256\255\347\273\203.html"
+++ "b/\351\230\205\350\257\273-\350\241\250\350\276\276-\345\206\231\344\275\234\347\232\204\350\256\255\347\273\203.html"
@@ -385,7 +385,7 @@ <h2 id="结语">结语</h2>
 <blockquote>
 <p>这个世界充斥着假学问和小学问，作为起了个大早的罗辑思维用户，后来弃跟也是觉得里面到处是简单问题复杂化，落入了假学问的阵法，还有一种可能因素自己的能量密度或野心配不上，但收获已是很多。</p>
 </blockquote>
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class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E6%94%BE%E7%9F%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有的放矢</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%B8%E5%BC%95%E5%8A%9B%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">吸引力法则</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">做报告的注意原则</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E8%A8%80%E5%AE%B9%E6%98%93%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%A9%BA%E7%99%BD%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">发言容易大脑空白？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%86%E5%9B%A0%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E4%B8%8D%E5%A4%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">皆因准备不够</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E7%8E%B0%E8%BA%AB%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%951"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">名人现身说法1</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E7%8E%B0%E8%BA%AB%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%952"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">名人现身说法2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E8%BA%AB%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%953"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现身说法3</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%8D%E8%AF%B4%E5%86%99%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">再说写作</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基本功</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0%E5%92%8B%E5%86%99"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">观察日记咋写</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E9%A2%98%E7%AA%81%E5%87%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">主题突出</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%BB%E9%A2%98%E5%AE%89%E6%8E%92%E7%BA%BF%E7%B4%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">为主题安排线索</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E6%84%9F%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E6%94%BE%E7%9F%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象感有的放矢</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E7%AC%94%E5%8D%A1%E5%A3%B3%E6%97%A0%E7%A5%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下笔卡壳无神？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%99%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E7%A6%BB%E4%B8%8D%E5%BC%80%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">写的好离不开阅读量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E5%92%8C%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阅读和知识体系建立</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%81%E5%91%B3%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E5%87%86%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">品味的基准线</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">阅读的分层</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%A2%E8%A7%82%E7%9C%8B%E5%BE%85%E4%B9%A6%E7%B1%8D%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">客观看待书籍的信息度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%A6%E7%9D%80%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E8%AF%BB%EF%BC%8C%E9%81%BF%E5%BC%80%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E7%9A%84%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">带着体系目标读，避开读书的风险</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E4%B8%8D%E5%BA%94%E4%BB%A3%E6%9B%BF%E4%BA%A4%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">读书不应代替交流</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%84%E5%BB%BA%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">构建知识体系的方法总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">补充知识</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E9%80%9F%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8A%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">阅读速度的理论上限</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">偏差的原因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E9%80%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span 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class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E6%94%BE%E7%9F%A2"><span class="toc-number">1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">有的放矢</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%B8%E5%BC%95%E5%8A%9B%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">吸引力法则</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%9A%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A8%E6%84%8F%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">做报告的注意原则</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E8%A8%80%E5%AE%B9%E6%98%93%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%A9%BA%E7%99%BD%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">发言容易大脑空白？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9A%86%E5%9B%A0%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E4%B8%8D%E5%A4%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">皆因准备不够</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E7%8E%B0%E8%BA%AB%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%951"><span class="toc-number">1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">名人现身说法1</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E7%8E%B0%E8%BA%AB%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%952"><span class="toc-number">1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">名人现身说法2</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E8%BA%AB%E8%AF%B4%E6%B3%953"><span class="toc-number">1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">现身说法3</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">总结</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%8D%E8%AF%B4%E5%86%99%E4%BD%9C"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">再说写作</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E5%8A%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">基本功</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E6%97%A5%E8%AE%B0%E5%92%8B%E5%86%99"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">观察日记咋写</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E9%A2%98%E7%AA%81%E5%87%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">主题突出</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%BB%E9%A2%98%E5%AE%89%E6%8E%92%E7%BA%BF%E7%B4%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">为主题安排线索</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E8%B1%A1%E6%84%9F%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E6%94%BE%E7%9F%A2"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">对象感有的放矢</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8B%E7%AC%94%E5%8D%A1%E5%A3%B3%E6%97%A0%E7%A5%9E%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">下笔卡壳无神？</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%86%99%E7%9A%84%E5%A5%BD%E7%A6%BB%E4%B8%8D%E5%BC%80%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E9%87%8F"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">写的好离不开阅读量</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E5%92%8C%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E5%BB%BA%E7%AB%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阅读和知识体系建立</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%93%81%E5%91%B3%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E5%87%86%E7%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">品味的基准线</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E7%9A%84%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">阅读的分层</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%A2%E8%A7%82%E7%9C%8B%E5%BE%85%E4%B9%A6%E7%B1%8D%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">客观看待书籍的信息度</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B8%A6%E7%9D%80%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%9B%AE%E6%A0%87%E8%AF%BB%EF%BC%8C%E9%81%BF%E5%BC%80%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E7%9A%84%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">带着体系目标读，避开读书的风险</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%BB%E4%B9%A6%E4%B8%8D%E5%BA%94%E4%BB%A3%E6%9B%BF%E4%BA%A4%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">读书不应代替交流</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9E%84%E5%BB%BA%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E4%BD%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">构建知识体系的方法总结</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A5%E5%85%85%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">补充知识</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E9%80%9F%E5%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA%E4%B8%8A%E9%99%90"><span class="toc-number">4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">阅读速度的理论上限</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0"><span class="toc-number">4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">偏差的原因</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E9%80%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span class="toc-number">4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">训练提高阅读速度</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局">历史的棋局</a><time datetime="2025-11-16T14:30:28.000Z" title="更新于 2025-11-16 22:30:28">2025-11-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a 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diff --git "a/\351\230\266\345\261\202\346\200\235\347\273\264\345\267\256\345\274\202.html" "b/\351\230\266\345\261\202\346\200\235\347\273\264\345\267\256\345\274\202.html"
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@@ -289,7 +289,7 @@ <h3 id="向下兼容的原则">向下兼容的原则</h3>
 <p>你要判断一个人层次高低，你就要先让一步，好好讲看他听不听，如果他不听或者开始亏待你或占你便宜，你就知道他的层次了，你就不要试着再去说服他，而是要立即严肃起来挑剔起来。要善良，也要有锋芒（起码一定要有原则底线）</p>
 <h3 id="结语">结语</h3>
 <p>四顾望去都是同类人，其乐融融，无论你身处哪个阶层，都是最幸福的事。</p>
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onclick="anzhiyu.addRandomCommentInfo()" href="/service/javascript:void(0)">匿名评论</a><a href="https://github.com/privacy" style="margin-left: 4px">隐私政策</a></div></div><div class="comment-wrap"><div><div class="vcomment" id="vcomment"></div></div></div></div><div class="comment-barrage"></div></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget" id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶层思维方式差异</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">底层思维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A9%B7%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">穷人思维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产思维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%8C%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">富人思维</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AC%E7%AB%8B%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%E7%9A%84%E7%A8%80%E7%BC%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">独立思考的稀缺性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶层不同无法真正沟通</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%8B%E6%97%A0%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E8%AF%9D%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上中下无共同话题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%82%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">上层的特殊性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E6%B5%81%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">交流的本质</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%B1%82%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E5%BE%88%E9%9A%BE%E4%BA%A4%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中层底层很难交流</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%88%98%E6%9D%A0%E7%B2%BE"><span 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class="toc-text">底层思维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A9%B7%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">穷人思维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%A7%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">中产思维</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%8C%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">富人思维</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8B%AC%E7%AB%8B%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%E7%9A%84%E7%A8%80%E7%BC%BA%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">独立思考的稀缺性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%98%B6%E5%B1%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E7%9C%9F%E6%AD%A3%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">阶层不同无法真正沟通</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%8B%E6%97%A0%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E8%AF%9D%E9%A2%98"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">上中下无共同话题</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8A%E5%B1%82%E7%9A%84%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">上层的特殊性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%A4%E6%B5%81%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%AC%E8%B4%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">交流的本质</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%AD%E5%B1%82%E5%BA%95%E5%B1%82%E5%BE%88%E9%9A%BE%E4%BA%A4%E6%B5%81"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">中层底层很难交流</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E6%88%98%E6%9D%A0%E7%B2%BE"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">网络战杠精</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%90%91%E4%B8%8B%E5%85%BC%E5%AE%B9%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">向下兼容的原则</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%A3%8B%E5%B1%80.html" title="历史的棋局"><img src="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20231008103727.png" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='https://github.com/img/404.jpg'" alt="历史的棋局"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" 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diff --git "a/\351\235\242\350\257\225\344\270\211\344\276\213\350\247\202\345\257\237\346\204\237\346\203\263.html" "b/\351\235\242\350\257\225\344\270\211\344\276\213\350\247\202\345\257\237\346\204\237\346\203\263.html"
index 2b744e3b09..1047861d2c 100644
--- "a/\351\235\242\350\257\225\344\270\211\344\276\213\350\247\202\345\257\237\346\204\237\346\203\263.html"
+++ "b/\351\235\242\350\257\225\344\270\211\344\276\213\350\247\202\345\257\237\346\204\237\346\203\263.html"
@@ -221,7 +221,7 @@ <h3 id="结语">结语</h3>
 <p>笑得坦荡</p>
 <p>不负众望</p>
 </blockquote>
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id="card-toc"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">前言</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">定能力要求</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">面试阶段</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%9C%BA%E7%99%BD"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开场白</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E9%9D%A2%E8%AF%95%E6%B3%95"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">行为面试法</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BC%80%E5%90%AF%E6%8F%90%E9%97%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">开启提问</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BF%BD%E9%97%AE"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">追问</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%86%E8%A7%A3%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">了解背景</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%BB%E5%8A%A1%E7%9A%84%E9%9A%BE%E5%BA%A6%E7%B3%BB%E6%95%B0"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">任务的难度系数</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%8C%E5%8A%A8%E7%BB%86%E8%8A%82"><span class="toc-number">3.2.2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">行动细节</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" 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diff --git "a/\351\242\210\351\203\250\350\247\202\346\204\237\345\267\256\345\274\202\350\247\243\350\257\273.html" "b/\351\242\210\351\203\250\350\247\202\346\204\237\345\267\256\345\274\202\350\247\243\350\257\273.html"
index 4324ca9ccd..519e9d7e92 100644
--- "a/\351\242\210\351\203\250\350\247\202\346\204\237\345\267\256\345\274\202\350\247\243\350\257\273.html"
+++ "b/\351\242\210\351\203\250\350\247\202\346\204\237\345\267\256\345\274\202\350\247\243\350\257\273.html"
@@ -256,7 +256,7 @@ <h3 id="发型">发型</h3>
 <h2 id="总结">总结</h2>
 <p>所以影响脖子视觉长度有几个关键位置，<strong>耳垂E</strong>，<strong>下颌角露脖点C</strong>，<strong>下巴A</strong>，<strong>脖根转折点G，锁骨D</strong>。其中最高的位置是耳垂E，最低的位置是锁骨D**，最长的脖长是ED**，通过选择性的遮盖和突出，就能影响视觉长度。聪明的你是否已经有了启发？</p>
 <p><strong>视觉上尽量利用耳垂到锁骨的高度ED来做脖子的长度，这就是芭蕾丸子头的好处</strong></p>
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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9C%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%84%96%E5%AD%90%E6%9C%89%E4%BD%95%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好看的脖子有何特点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%A6%E5%90%88%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">符合比例</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E8%84%96%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">长脖治理策略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E6%9C%AC%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">治本策略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%98%A6%E8%84%B8"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">瘦脸</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%93%E6%80%81%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">体态训练</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E6%A0%87%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">治标策略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A3%E7%9D%80"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">衣着</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A3%E7%9D%80%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">衣着总结</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span 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class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%BD%E7%9C%8B%E7%9A%84%E8%84%96%E5%AD%90%E6%9C%89%E4%BD%95%E7%89%B9%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">好看的脖子有何特点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%A6%E5%90%88%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">符合比例</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%95%BF%E8%84%96%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">长脖治理策略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E6%9C%AC%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">治本策略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%98%A6%E8%84%B8"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">瘦脸</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BD%93%E6%80%81%E8%AE%AD%E7%BB%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">体态训练</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%B2%BB%E6%A0%87%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">治标策略</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A3%E7%9D%80"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">衣着</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-5"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A1%A3%E7%9D%80%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">衣着总结</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%91%E5%9E%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span 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@@ -298,7 +298,7 @@ <h3 id="性吸引力抽样预测">性吸引力抽样预测</h3>
 <p>A：被喜欢的次数</p>
 <p>N：接触的次数</p>
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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%84%B8%E5%92%8C%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90%E5%93%AA%E4%B8%AA%E6%9B%B4%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">脸和身材哪个更重要？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BC%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论先行颜值派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对立派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">实验研究</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90%E7%89%8C%E4%B8%8D%E5%A5%BD%E6%89%93"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">身材牌不好打</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%AF%E6%AC%B2%E5%A4%A7%E7%83%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">纯欲大热</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的工作机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%88%E6%95%B4%E4%BD%93%E5%90%8E%E5%B1%80%E9%83%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">先整体后局部</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%AD%E6%97%B6%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%8B%E6%96%87%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E5%88%A4%E6%96%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">短时上下文影响判断</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%AB%E8%84%B8%E7%81%B5%E9%AD%82%E4%BE%9D%E6%AC%A1%E5%B1%95%E5%BC%80"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">身脸灵魂依次展开</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E5%90%88%E5%8A%9B%E8%AF%84%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">魅力合力评分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90%E7%9A%84%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9%E6%97%B6%E5%88%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">身材的胜利时刻</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">1.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">全面竞争</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#span-id-%E7%9F%AD%E6%8B%A9%E5%BF%83%E6%80%81-%E7%9F%AD%E6%8B%A9%E5%9E%82%E6%B6%8E-span"><span class="toc-number">1.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">短择垂涎</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E5%88%86%E6%B0%B4%E5%B2%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">年龄分水岭</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB%E7%9A%84%E2%80%9C%E4%B8%B4%E7%95%8C%E6%84%9F%E2%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚姻的“临界感”</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通人塑造健康性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E5%90%B8%E5%BC%95%E5%8A%9B%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">性吸引力研究排序</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E9%80%89%E7%94%B7%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女选男因素排序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B7%E9%80%89%E5%A5%B3%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">男选女因素排序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E5%90%B8%E5%BC%95%E5%8A%9B%E6%8A%BD%E6%A0%B7%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">性吸引力抽样预测</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%84%B8%E5%92%8C%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90%E5%93%AA%E4%B8%AA%E6%9B%B4%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%EF%BC%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">脸和身材哪个更重要？</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AE%BA%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C%E9%A2%9C%E5%80%BC%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">结论先行颜值派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%B9%E7%AB%8B%E6%B4%BE"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">对立派</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">实验研究</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90%E7%89%8C%E4%B8%8D%E5%A5%BD%E6%89%93"><span class="toc-number">1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">身材牌不好打</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BA%AF%E6%AC%B2%E5%A4%A7%E7%83%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">纯欲大热</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%A7%E8%84%91%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6"><span class="toc-number">1.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">大脑的工作机制</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%88%E6%95%B4%E4%BD%93%E5%90%8E%E5%B1%80%E9%83%A8"><span class="toc-number">1.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">先整体后局部</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9F%AD%E6%97%B6%E4%B8%8A%E4%B8%8B%E6%96%87%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E5%88%A4%E6%96%AD"><span class="toc-number">1.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">短时上下文影响判断</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%AB%E8%84%B8%E7%81%B5%E9%AD%82%E4%BE%9D%E6%AC%A1%E5%B1%95%E5%BC%80"><span class="toc-number">1.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">身脸灵魂依次展开</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%AD%85%E5%8A%9B%E5%90%88%E5%8A%9B%E8%AF%84%E5%88%86"><span class="toc-number">1.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">魅力合力评分</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%BA%AB%E6%9D%90%E7%9A%84%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9%E6%97%B6%E5%88%BB"><span class="toc-number">1.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">身材的胜利时刻</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89"><span class="toc-number">1.8.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">全面竞争</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#span-id-%E7%9F%AD%E6%8B%A9%E5%BF%83%E6%80%81-%E7%9F%AD%E6%8B%A9%E5%9E%82%E6%B6%8E-span"><span class="toc-number">1.8.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">短择垂涎</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E5%88%86%E6%B0%B4%E5%B2%AD"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">年龄分水岭</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A9%9A%E5%A7%BB%E7%9A%84%E2%80%9C%E4%B8%B4%E7%95%8C%E6%84%9F%E2%80%9D"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">婚姻的“临界感”</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E5%A1%91%E9%80%A0%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">普通人塑造健康性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%BB%93%E8%AF%AD"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">结语</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E5%90%B8%E5%BC%95%E5%8A%9B%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">性吸引力研究排序</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A5%B3%E9%80%89%E7%94%B7%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">女选男因素排序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B7%E9%80%89%E5%A5%B3%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E6%8E%92%E5%BA%8F"><span class="toc-number">5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">男选女因素排序</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E5%90%B8%E5%BC%95%E5%8A%9B%E6%8A%BD%E6%A0%B7%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B"><span class="toc-number">5.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">性吸引力抽样预测</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%82%E8%80%83"><span class="toc-number">6.</span> <span class="toc-text">参考</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont 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@@ -246,7 +246,7 @@ <h2 id="切换生态系统">切换生态系统</h2>
 <p>既然环境可以塑造人，为什么不能塑造成我想要塑造的样子呢，为什么不能主动选择一个塑造自己的环境呢？你要做的就是切换生态系统，<font color="blue">离开你的初始环境，离得越远越好，去最大的城市，去竞争最激烈的地方，去顶尖人才最多的地方，去你之前想去而从来没去过的地方，去看去模仿去学习</font>。你可能不知道什么是对的，但你一定知道这样大方向肯定是对的；你可能不知道过去哪些是错的，但你一定知道大概率很多地方都错了，在超我意识指导下奋力向前。</p>
 <h2 id="6-in-1">6 in 1</h2>
 <p>只要是舒服的享受的习惯的，你就不要做。<font color="red">草根阶段在你舒适区的一定是有问题的，但正是因为它符合你的习惯，你才意识不到他有问题</font>。</p>
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class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">草根反人性之路</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%80%85%E9%81%93%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反者道之动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%AF%94%E7%9A%84%E9%AD%94%E5%B9%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">性价比的魔幻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%BA%E9%9D%A2%E5%AD%90%E4%BB%98%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要为面子付费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%88%8D%E5%BE%97%E4%B8%BA%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E4%BB%98%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">舍得为知识付费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E6%97%A9%E8%B8%A9%E5%9D%91"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">提早踩坑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AF%BB%E6%89%BE%E4%B8%8D%E7%A1%AE%E5%AE%9A%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">寻找不确定性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%87%E6%8D%A2%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F"><span class="toc-number">3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">切换生态系统</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#6-in-1"><span class="toc-number">3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">6 in 1</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></div></div><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-history"></i><span>最近发布</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="https://github.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%B9%B4%E9%BE%84%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%82%E8%AE%B0.html" 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class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">草根反人性之路</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E8%80%85%E9%81%93%E4%B9%8B%E5%8A%A8"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">反者道之动</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%AF%94%E7%9A%84%E9%AD%94%E5%B9%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">性价比的魔幻</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%BA%E9%9D%A2%E5%AD%90%E4%BB%98%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">不要为面子付费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%88%8D%E5%BE%97%E4%B8%BA%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E4%BB%98%E8%B4%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">舍得为知识付费</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E6%97%A9%E8%B8%A9%E5%9D%91"><span 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class="toc-text">高效团队</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%90%9E%E6%88%90%E9%AB%98%E6%95%88%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何搞成高效团队</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高效团队的人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么样的人才是好的人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术人员分层</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么找到人的优势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%88%90%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">核心成员</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">驱动者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">优化者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">贡献者</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚马逊的人才观</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E5%B9%B2%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%88%E8%A6%81builder%E8%80%8C%E9%9D%9Edreamer%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">实干家（要builder而非dreamer）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E4%BA%BA%E7%BF%81"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">主人翁</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高效团队中的事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E6%9D%BF%E6%96%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">提升效率的三板斧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%93%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">抓重点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E8%83%BD%E4%BA%A7%E7%94%9F%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">最能产生影响力的事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Big-Wins"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Big Wins</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%8A%A8%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">自动化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">降成本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E7%A7%8D%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">两种软件团队管理方式</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%81%9A%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用数据做支撑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">新时代的组织能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚马逊的组织文化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%8C%B9%E9%85%8D%E2%80%93%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新创造的组织文化匹配–亚马逊解读</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E4%BA%89%E8%AE%AE%E9%9D%A0%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决争议靠什么</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E4%BA%89%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">有效争论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AE%9E%E8%B7%B5"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它有效实践</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%80%E5%98%B4No-PPT"><span 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class="toc-text">高效团队</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%90%9E%E6%88%90%E9%AB%98%E6%95%88%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">如何搞成高效团队</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">高效团队的人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E6%A0%B7%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E6%98%AF%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">什么样的人才是好的人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E5%88%86%E5%B1%82"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">技术人员分层</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%8E%E4%B9%88%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">怎么找到人的优势</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%88%90%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">核心成员</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.4.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">驱动者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.4.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">优化者</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE%E8%80%85"><span class="toc-number">2.4.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">贡献者</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D%E8%A7%82"><span class="toc-number">2.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚马逊的人才观</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%AE%9E%E5%B9%B2%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%88%E8%A6%81builder%E8%80%8C%E9%9D%9Edreamer%EF%BC%89"><span class="toc-number">2.5.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">实干家（要builder而非dreamer）</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%BB%E4%BA%BA%E7%BF%81"><span class="toc-number">2.5.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">主人翁</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">高效团队中的事</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8F%90%E5%8D%87%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%89%E6%9D%BF%E6%96%A7"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">提升效率的三板斧</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%8A%93%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">抓重点</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%80%E8%83%BD%E4%BA%A7%E7%94%9F%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E5%8A%9B%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">最能产生影响力的事</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#Big-Wins"><span class="toc-number">3.1.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">Big Wins</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%87%AA%E5%8A%A8%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">自动化</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%99%8D%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">降成本</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%B8%A4%E7%A7%8D%E8%BD%AF%E4%BB%B6%E5%9B%A2%E9%98%9F%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F"><span class="toc-number">3.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">两种软件团队管理方式</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%A8%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%81%9A%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91"><span class="toc-number">3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">用数据做支撑</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%B0%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B"><span class="toc-number">3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">新时代的组织能力</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">亚马逊的组织文化</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E5%88%9B%E9%80%A0%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%84%E7%BB%87%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E5%8C%B9%E9%85%8D%E2%80%93%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E8%A7%A3%E8%AF%BB"><span class="toc-number">3.3.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">创新创造的组织文化匹配–亚马逊解读</span></a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E4%BA%89%E8%AE%AE%E9%9D%A0%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88"><span class="toc-number">3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">解决争议靠什么</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E4%BA%89%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">有效争论</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AE%9E%E8%B7%B5"><span class="toc-number">3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它有效实践</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%9A%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%80%E5%98%B4No-PPT"><span 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