At the deepest level, reality is electrons playing basketball.

That’s the cleanest way I know to explain electromagnetism: electrons zipping from point A to point B, lobbing photons, swallowing photons. It’s why two magnets snap apart (they’re literally tossing photons at each other). It’s why your phone vibrates in your pocket right now. It’s why television ever existed.

The applications of this one force are dizzyingly vast.

I stand in awe of GOD’s power—who wouldn’t? HE’s GOD. Omnipotence is literally HIS job description. But raw power doesn’t make my jaw drop anymore. (Sorry, PAPA GOD).

What still flattens me is HIS mind

The sheer intellectual violence of thinking at the quantum scale. Designing with obsessive nano-level precision. Engineering—not painting—systems so intricate the parts actually move. Picture compressing an entire living globe of seven billion walking, arguing, loving humans onto the head of a pin… then making it work flawlessly for millennia. That kind of detailing is borderline obscene.

Like most believers, I still get hit with the occasional wave of doubt. It isn’t emotional; it’s conceptual. It lives in the head.

GOD is a walking paradox.

“Where did GOD come from?” is the wrong question—it’s grammatically correct and philosophically meaningless. HE cannot have a beginning. HE cannot have a cause. And yet… what if we’re all just code running on someone else’s hardware?

Whenever that vertigo creeps in, I force myself to stare hard at the alternative: everything we see and touch and love arose by accident.

Molecules randomly slamming into each other until—poof—they “decided” to believe in survival and invented consciousness. Non-life spontaneously birthing life.

None of that survives contact with reality. It contradicts the texture of my own lived experience.

So the doubt stays intellectual, never existential.

I can’t logically resolve GOD—my brain simply doesn’t have the RAM. Infinity is a configuration error for human wetware. Science itself stumbles and throws singularities every time it brushes against true infinity.

GOD is Awawaridi: not hidden, not absent, but conceptually unknowable on our terms.

And somehow that very unknowability—paired with too many answered prayers, too many moments that felt unmistakably touched—keeps the certainty alive.

Electrons are still out there, playing their endless basketball game.

And Someone wrote the rules—GOD, my GOD and FATHER.

Hyperliquid turned ordinary traders into millionaires and reshaped how people think about decentralized exchanges. Yet the same qualities that made it rise to prominence have also painted a target on its back. Whether it succeeds will shape the direction of DeFi for many years to come. Let’s dive in.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

A Quick Primer

Hyperliquid began as an underdog in the crowded world of decentralised exchanges, but its ascent has been nothing short of historic. What set it apart was not only relentless innovation and unmatched performance but also the wealth-generation effect of its airdrop. Active users became instant millionaires simply for trading on the platform. Even those who had lost money were rewarded with life-changing allocations that dwarfed their losses many times over. That moment forged a loyalty to the protocol rarely seen in DeFi, creating a community whose financial and cultural alignment continues to anchor the ecosystem to this day. Institutions soon followed, recognizing that this was not just another venue for perpetuals but a market leader reshaping the very structure of on-chain finance.

Perpetual futures remain its foundation, but Hyperliquid’s ambitions now stretch far beyond sheer trading volumes. The launch of HyperEVM has seeded an ecosystem of builders and protocols, and the upcoming HIP-3 upgrade will mark the next phase of growth. Once implemented, HIP-3 is designed to transform Hyperliquid from a curated exchange into permissionless financial infrastructure, giving builders the ability to deploy their own perpetual markets. If executed successfully, HIP-3 would expand Hyperliquid’s reach from crypto pairs into exotic derivatives, real-world assets, and even event-driven markets.

But leadership always carries risk. Aster and Lighter are no longer speculative challengers but real competitors, with Lighter even briefly surpassing Hyperliquid in daily trading volume. The moat remains wide, but it is no longer uncontested. At the same time, November’s token unlocks hang over the market like a storm cloud. The buyback and burn program has shown its strength, yet the scale of new supply on the horizon could test market confidence in ways not seen before.

Hyperliquid remains the beating heart of decentralized trading and one of the defining success stories in DeFi. Yet its story is still unfinished. The question for this next phase is whether it can not only defend its position but also continue accelerating, keeping its foot on the gas long enough to fulfill the vision that many now see as its ultimate destiny: the blockchain to house all of finance.

Competitors: Aster, Lighter, and the First Real Threats

For the first time ever, Hyperliquid’s dominance is being tested by rivals with real momentum. Aster, rebranded from Astherus, has emerged as the most aggressive. It offers ultra-low latency execution, hidden orders, and leverage up to 1000x. More strikingly, it has introduced perpetual trading on stocks like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia, an expansion Hyperliquid has not yet implemented. On paper these are technical differentiators. In practice what makes Aster dangerous is not its features alone but the coordinated effort behind them.

CZ

BNB

@cz_binance

·

Follow

Aster cracks me up.

Leveraged me fully (pun intended).

Well played.

Aster

@Aster_DEX

By community request, you can now long or short $HYPE with up to 300x leverage on Aster.

https://asterdex.com/en/futures/v1/HYPEUSDT

Listing is not an endorsement of the project. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do not trade assets you are unfamiliar with and do not understand

10:41 PM · Sep 22, 2025

9.9K

Reply

Copy link to post

Binance founder CZ has repeatedly amplified Aster. From praising its hidden order feature just days after posting about it himself, to promoting its HYPE perps listing that mirrored Hyperliquid’s own launch wording, the signals are too deliberate to ignore. Aster is not an isolated experiment. It looks like a direct counterweight to Hyperliquid. With CZ’s history as one of the most ruthless operators in the industry, it would be naive to dismiss the risk. A single tweet from him helped trigger the implosion of FTX. Now he is watching Hyperliquid eat into the market share Binance once controlled. Aster could be the vehicle he uses to strike back.

Aster’s surge has also been fueled by aggressive incentives. Its points system and ongoing airdrop campaign have drawn speculative flows, with traders farming rewards while testing the exchange. This combination of features, incentives, and backroom support has allowed Aster to scale at alarming speed.

Lighter poses a subtler but no less serious challenge. Its zk-based order book emphasizes fairness, transparency, and gas efficiency, appealing to traders who prioritize neutrality as much as speed. It has also gained traction with a zero-fee model, underwritten by aggressive incentives and a points program designed to fuel farming activity. For retail traders this looks like free trading, but in practice high-frequency participants still face costs through infrastructure fees and order flow management, meaning the model is more subsidized than sustainable. For a brief moment Lighter even surpassed Hyperliquid in daily trading volume, hitting $4.3 billion. Its TVL has since climbed to $500 million with open interest past $1 billion. The question is whether this activity reflects durable adoption or mercenary flows chasing rewards.

Even if much of the activity is incentive-driven, Lighter’s rise cannot be dismissed. It now accounts for more than half of Hyperliquid’s daily volumes on certain days, showing that liquidity can shift quickly when traders are given alternatives. The risk is not that Lighter has overtaken Hyperliquid, but that it has demonstrated credible challengers exist.

It is worth noting most leading new perp exchanges remain tokenless, relying on points campaigns and future airdrop speculation as their primary engines of growth. Both Avantis and Aster delivered significant airdrop rewards to early users, and the strong price action following their launches has only heightened the appeal of these strategies. Most of the time airdrop tokens are immediately dumped, but Hyperliquid and CZ have shown renewed interest in the sector. As Perpetual Pulse data shows, tokenless platforms like Lighter are capturing meaningful trading volume, and their points schemes could translate to substantial rewards for traders. In a market still driven by incentive-driven growth, trading across a wide array of platforms with points campaigns remains a practical strategy for traders seeking exposure to that sector. You will not find these opportunities on centralized venues like MEXC or Binance.

By most measures, Hyperliquid is still far ahead. Its cumulative volumes, liquidity depth, and builder ecosystem continue to dwarf both Aster and Lighter, with $2.3 billion in HyperEVM TVL and a commanding 70 to 80 percent share of the decentralized perps market. Its community loyalty remains one of the deepest in DeFi, anchored by the wealth effect of its airdrop and reinforced by a relentless pace of delivery. Hyperliquid is also leaning on its proven buyback program and the upcoming HIP-3 upgrade to accelerate innovation, moves that could widen the gap once more. But the moat is no longer unquestioned. For the first time, Hyperliquid faces rivals with both substance and strategy.

Stablecoin Synergy: The Role of USDH and USDC in Hyperliquid’s Growth

The USDH governance vote was the most contentious decision Hyperliquid has faced to date. For the first time, validators were tasked with choosing who would issue the network’s native stablecoin. Proposals came from Paxos, Ethena, Sky (the successor to MakerDAO), and newcomer Native Markets. Each represented a distinct vision. Paxos leaned on its regulated rails, enterprise pedigree, and $75M liquidity commitment. Ethena pushed its synthetic collateral mechanics and BlackRock-linked reserves. Sky highlighted its $8B diversified reserves and Peg Stability Module. Native Markets stood apart by offering an issuer-agnostic framework that routed 50% of reserve yields to HYPE buybacks via the Assistance Fund and 50% to ecosystem growth, with earlier drafts even floating 95% returns.

In the days before voting closed, Ethena abruptly withdrew after community pushback over its rushed, non-native design. That shift gave Native the advantage, with prediction markets quickly pricing its odds above 90%. The contest became a referendum: should Hyperliquid partner with a regulated issuer, or back a team explicitly aligned with HYPE holders?

Mechanics mattered as much as the outcome. Validators, not the team, cast the votes. The Foundation abstained, and all team-staked HYPE was excluded from weighting. Those safeguards ensured procedural legitimacy, though critics argued Native benefitted from a “home team” advantage and questioned whether the contest was ever level. Native ultimately secured nearly 70% of validator support, and the decision was confirmed on-chain. No evidence of manipulation has surfaced. USDH now carries the burden of proving that alignment was worth sidelining issuers with established track records.

That context made Circle’s mid-September move even more notable. Just days after the USDH outcome, Circle deployed native USDC on HyperEVM alongside CCTP v2. For months, traders had relied on bridged USDC via Arbitrum contracts, a process that added friction and slowed adoption. Native integration removed those barriers, but more importantly, Circle went beyond technical support. It became a direct stakeholder in the ecosystem, taking exposure to HYPE and exploring validator participation. USDC supply on Hyperliquid has already grown 200% year-to-date to $6B, accounting for 14% of Circle’s global growth in 2025. Circle was compelled to buy in, embedding itself into DeFi’s fastest-growing exchange in order to prevent natively aligned challengers like USDH and Ethena’s USDe from eroding its market share.

The outcome is a dual-track stablecoin ecosystem where USDH embodies native alignment, funneling yields back into HYPE, while USDC delivers global legitimacy, regulatory efficiency, and institutional gateways. Together, they give Hyperliquid a combination few others can match. If both succeed, the platform could anchor crypto’s most strategically advantaged stablecoin mix, one that locks in internal value while simultaneously unlocking external flows. Early estimates suggest USDH alone could redirect $150M to $220M in annual yield into buybacks and liquidity, a scale that would materially reinforce HYPE’s value loop. But success will not be determined by design. It will hinge on whether traders migrate margin into USDH, whether peg stability holds under stress, and whether Circle’s presence complements rather than cannibalizes adoption.

Builder Codes and the Integration Flywheel

One of the most important yet underappreciated innovations of 2025 has been Hyperliquid’s builder codes. On the surface they resemble a referral program, but in practice they form a modular layer of growth. Each code acts as a unique identifier that lets wallets, front ends, and applications route orders directly into Hyperliquid’s order book while tracking attribution and sharing rebates, with up to 76% redistributed to users on top apps.

Ethena Labs

@ethena_labs

·

Follow

We are excited to continue our support of the @HyperliquidX ecosystem via a strategic investment into and partnership with @BasedOneX.

Based operates the largest builder codes platform by revenue, representing ~7% of Hyperliquid perps volume today.

With this partnership, Based Show more

Based

@BasedOneX

1/ Based x @ethena_labs

We’re happy to announce a strategic investment from Ethena.

This marks the first step in our partnership to accelerate USDe adoption across the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

We think USDe can play a key role in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, and want to be a

12:30 PM · Sep 8, 2025

902

Reply

Copy link to post

Adoption has accelerated rapidly. Rabby integrated perps with up to 40x leverage across more than 100 markets, enabling seamless deposits from any chain. Front ends like Dexari and Based App are building community-driven interfaces powered entirely by builder codes.

Ethena Labs

@ethena_labs

·

Follow

Combined TVL of Ethena USDe and USDtb continues to reach new all-time highs surpassing $16b

1:55 PM · Sep 23, 2025

698

Reply

Copy link to post

Leading builders now average more than $200K in daily revenue, with peaks above $850K in a single day. Based App alone, backed by Ethena’s investment, briefly grew revenue 55 times in a matter of weeks, at one point accounting for 25 to 30 percent of Hyperliquid’s perp volume and supporting more than 16K users. Ethena, despite withdrawing from the USDH governance race, is pressing forward with direct deployments through Based, including collateral integrations, signaling confidence that Hyperliquid remains the deepest venue for execution.

It is also worth noting that both Based and Dexari run their own point systems and are likely to launch tokens in the future. Using their interfaces instead of Hyperliquid’s directly gives users exposure not only to Hyperliquid’s rewards but also to these parallel incentive programs.

The genius of the system lies in how it lowers the barrier for innovation while protecting liquidity depth. Developers can spin up new products, capture value through their codes, and still contribute to a unified order book. As HIP-3 enables permissionless market creation, builder codes prevent fragmentation by ensuring all experiments feed into the same pool of liquidity. This creates a structural flywheel: more builders drive more users, more users increase liquidity depth, and deeper liquidity attracts more builders.

Rabby Wallet

@Rabby_io

·

Follow

Rabby Perps is live — now on Rabby Mobile and Rabby Extension.

Trade with up to 40x leverage across 100 markets.

Go long or short anytime, anywhere.

Powered by @HyperliquidX

9:40 PM · Sep 6, 2025

2.3K

Reply

Copy link to post

For competitors, replicating this model is far from simple. It demands not only technical infrastructure but also the compounding network effects already in motion on Hyperliquid. With builder codes scaling, Ethena embedding through Based, and wallets like Rabby routing flows natively, Hyperliquid’s integration architecture is evolving into a moat. This infrastructure is what allows the protocol to outpace rivals like Aster and Lighter, not just in raw volume but in sustaining growth through an expanding ecosystem of aligned builders.

Token Unlocks, Buybacks, and Burns

The single largest risk facing Hyperliquid today is supply overhang. On November 29, 2025, the first major unlocks for team and contributor allocations begin, setting in motion a two-year vesting schedule that could release close to $12 billion worth of HYPE at current prices.

It is important to note that the 31% Genesis Distribution airdrop has already entered circulation. The true overhang lies in the remaining 600 million tokens still locked across the following groups:

• Core Contributors (23.8%) – 238M tokens subject to vesting, beginning unlocks Nov 29, 2025.

• Future Emissions & Community Rewards (38.888%) – 389M tokens reserved for incentives and liquidity mining, distributed gradually.

• Hyper Foundation Budget (6%) – 60M tokens under Foundation control.

• Community Grants (0.3%) – 3M tokens.

• HIP-2 (0.012%) – a tiny 120K allocation tied to the AMM.

Together, these allocations represent the real dilution risk: hundreds of millions of tokens set to enter the market over the next 24 months.

Unlocks of this scale often crush token economies, but Hyperliquid has a powerful counterweight in the form of its Assistance Fund (AF). This mechanism captures roughly 97 percent of protocol fees and recycles them directly into open-market HYPE buybacks. This structure ensures that trading activity, which in most ecosystems generates sell pressure through emissions, is instead converted into sustained buy pressure.

The scale is already evident. By August 2025, cumulative buybacks surpassed $1.26 billion, and in the past 30 days alone the AF deployed $93 million to absorb supply. On a rolling basis, this equates to $30–35 million per month or $350–400 million annualized. At current run rates, the AF is positioned to offset a large portion of the unlock schedule.

Equally important is what happens after the buybacks. A portion of repurchased tokens are permanently removed from circulation. Over 413,000 HYPE have already been retired, with an annualized burn rate near 503,000 tokens and daily peaks above 3,200. While this represents just 0.05 percent of total supply annually, the symbolic and structural impact is significant. Hyperliquid is one of the few protocols that systematically converts revenue into both buy pressure and permanent supply reduction. Ongoing community proposals to burn the AF’s 31 million HYPE balance and all future buybacks would take this deflationary design even further.

Still, the question is not whether Hyperliquid can buy back tokens, but whether the Assistance Fund can absorb the unlock wave without breaking. The AF Absorption Ratio illustrates the balance. Throughout 2025, the fund offset 2–5% of daily sell volume, with spikes above 6% during periods of heavy unlock anticipation. As long as volumes remain high, with $12–13 billion in daily perp trading and over $1 billion in DEX flows, the fund has the firepower to neutralize new supply in real time. If volumes contract, however, the buffer thins quickly.

This is why the next several months are pivotal. Hyperliquid’s tokenomics now rest on a delicate balance between growth-driven fees and unlock-driven dilution. If trading activity continues to expand and stablecoin depth grows beyond the current $6.1 billion USDC base, the AF can not only neutralize unlock pressure but also strengthen HYPE’s monetary premium through consistent burns. If adoption slows, unlocks could overwhelm buybacks, undermining confidence in the value loop.

In short, Hyperliquid has engineered one of the most sophisticated defense systems against dilution in crypto. But defenses must be stress-tested. November’s unlocks will mark the beginning of that test, when the Assistance Fund’s scale, efficiency, and burn mechanics will either validate HYPE as sound money or reveal the limits of buybacks against sustained token inflation.

Arthur Hayes and the Optics of Exit Liquidity

Arthur Hayes, through his Maelstrom fund, has been one of the loudest champions of Hyperliquid while also becoming a lightning rod for criticism. At Token2049 he laid out a bold thesis projecting that HYPE could deliver 126x upside by 2028 if protocol fees scaled in proportion to stablecoin depth. The model spread quickly across X, reinforcing HYPE’s reputation as the crown jewel of DeFi and giving traders another reason to frame it as a once-in-a-cycle opportunity.

Arthur Hayes

@CryptoHayes

·

Follow

Need to pay my deposit on the new Rari 849 Testarossa

MLM

@mlmabc

Arthur Hayes just sold 96.6K HYPE ($5.1M) - only 3 weeks after predicting it could pump up to 126x in the coming years.

https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xc32235231d29831a2cb2a11e3f9c7f38160fc1dd

1:55 AM · Sep 22, 2025

1.8K

Reply

Copy link to post

Weeks later, blockchain data revealed a wallet linked to Hayes sold 96,600 HYPE, worth roughly $5.1 million. The sale came so soon after his 126x presentation that critics accused him of using his platform to pump sentiment and then exit into the strength he helped create. Hayes brushed off the controversy by joking that the sale was to fund a Ferrari deposit, insisting his 2028 thesis remained unchanged. But the optics were damaging, and the backlash spread in the form of viral memes and open accusations that retail enthusiasm was being used as exit liquidity.

Arthur Hayes

@CryptoHayes

·

Follow

This is why we dumped $HYPE today. But don’t worry 126x is still possible 2028 is a long way off.

Maelstrom

@MaelstromFund

http://x.com/i/article/1969969078531162112

10:52 AM · Sep 22, 2025

1.6K

Reply

Copy link to post

To his credit, Hayes’ original thesis did acknowledge risks, including the $12 billion in upcoming unlocks, the scale of future emissions, and the growing pressure from competitors like Aster and Lighter. And in crypto, trading around positions does not necessarily negate conviction. Still, the episode sharpened a longstanding criticism: that many VCs and KOLs accumulate tokens early, push narratives aggressively, and then quietly sell into the demand those same narratives generate.

HYPEconomist

@theHYPEconomist

·

Follow

arthur hayes just sold 96.6K $HYPE

3 weeks after predicting it could pump up to 126x in next years

11:14 PM · Sep 21, 2025

1.2K

Reply

Copy link to post

TMG’s Take

Hyperliquid remains the dominant force in decentralized perpetuals, but the coming months will test its resilience. Competitors like Aster and Lighter are gaining traction, token unlocks loom large, and the ecosystem must continue to innovate if it wants to maintain its lead. The fundamentals are strong: buybacks and burns continue at scale, HyperEVM is onboarding builders, and HIP-3 is approaching mainnet. But dominance can breed complacency, and the moat is no longer unchallenged.

What sets Hyperliquid apart is not just technology or volume, but values. In a space where most projects are optimized for insiders, Hyperliquid has been optimized for users. No VC allocations. No backroom deals. No foundation farming. One hundred percent of supply went to traders, and 97 percent of revenue flows back into HYPE. The team paid themselves nothing until the protocol proved itself.

Jeff and his team are not building for quick exits or headlines. They are building because they believe finance should look different. If Hyperliquid succeeds, it will not just be remembered as another exchange but as the turning point where crypto finally proved it could serve its users first. If it fails, critics will say the industry was destined to remain a casino.

Bitcoin has always been the people’s asset. Hyperliquid has the chance to become the first people’s altcoin — and perhaps the proof that DeFi can finally outgrow the cycles of greed that defined its past.

PumpFun is making headlines with its $PUMP token ICO. We break down the details and try to make sense of the platform’s sudden pivot from “launch a meme coin for free” to “we’re going to kill Facebook, TikTok, and Twitch… on Solana.” All announced just 72 hours before their ICO. Sounds sus, so let’s dive in.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

What’s going on?

PumpFun is a meme launchpad that’s already extracted over $780 million from the Solana ecosystem, dumped SOL on the open market via centralised exchanges like Kraken. It’s now launching its own token, $PUMP, via an Initial Coin Offering (ICO). 15% of the total supply will be sold to the public at a $4 billion valuation, while 18% has already been snapped up by institutional players at the same price. The sale will take place on PumpFun’s platform, as well as partner exchanges.

We now have a clear picture of $PUMP’s token distribution and vesting schedule, and the details have raised major concerns.

$PUMP Token Distribution

Here’s what the chart shows:

• 33% allocated to the Initial Coin Offering

• 24% reserved for community and ecosystem initiatives

• 20% to the team

• 2.4% to the ecosystem fund

• 2% to the foundation

• 13% to existing investors

• 3% for livestreaming

• 2.6% for liquidity and exchanges

Our interpretation is simple:

• 67% goes to insiders

• 18% to private investors

• Just 15% to the public

These tokenomics scream extraction. Over two-thirds of the supply is in the hands of insiders and this is from a team that’s already pulled $780 million from the market through fees and dumped SOL on the open market.

$PUMP Token Unlock Schedule

At its peak, the platform earned $134 million in 30 days, making it the third most profitable DeFi protocol, trailing only stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle. But with its history of leaving memecoin traders high and dry, it appears that PumpFun is going for the final act of extraction amidst growing competition.

PumpFun Revenue

Generally, when a Web3 platform rolls out a token, communities are happy because it has become an industry standard to focus on rewarding loyal users with a nice airdrop. But PumpFun is flipping the script. Instead, the team is focused on a token sale. PumpFun is planning to raise a $1.3b cash at $4b valuation.

$4 billion for a startup that has generated around $780m in 1.5 years might seem undervalued based on traditional valuation metrics such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E ratio). Messari analysts have even suggested a $7 billion valuation, citing PumpFun’s dominance in memecoin launches and Solana’s ecosystem growth. Delphi Digital also seems to be bullish on the upcoming ICO due to PumpFun's revenue and multipliers that are higher than most of the DeFi platforms.

Delphi Digital

@Delphi_Digital

·

Follow

Is $PUMP set to become the most hated rally?

A valuation analysis of Pump Fun and what to expect from launch.

9:36 PM · Jul 10, 2025

242

Reply

Copy link to post

However, we don’t share Messari and Delphi Digital's optimism. The P/E ratio is a good framework if the business is sustainable and is not losing to competitors. PumpFun’s market share has recently plummeted from 90% in 2024 to below 30%, as competitors like LetsBonk have emerged.

Blockworks Research

@blockworksres

·

Follow

Replying to @blockworksres

2/ Total revenue from launchpad activities has flattened in the past two months, but the landscape is much more competitive.

@bonk_fun recently eclipsed over 60% of the market, but @pumpdotfun has historically been the dominant launchpad.

6:42 PM · Jul 8, 2025

28

Reply

Copy link to post

It has recently surpassed PumpFun in daily revenue, generating over $1 million daily through successful meme launches. Furthermore, new platforms like LaunchLab (backed by Raydium) further threaten PumpFun’s dominance and often generate more daily fees.

Launchpad Protocol Ranking

Additionally, over 80% of PumpFun’s top creators have reportedly migrated to competitors, drawn by lower fees, better incentives, or more vibrant communities. PumpFun’s lack of a sustainable competitive moat (its bonding curve model can be replicated) makes it vulnerable to further market share erosion.

SolanaNews.sol

@solananew

·

Follow

BREAKING: 88% OF TOP 200 SERIAL @pumpdotfun DEPLOYERS HAVE MIGRATED TO @bonk_fun!!!

4:07 PM · Jul 8, 2025

1.3K

Reply

Copy link to post

Furthermore, the top 1000 wallets on PumpFun and PumpSwap are made up almost entirely by bots. This is not organic in our view and it is possible those bots might be run by insiders as well.

SoloJay

@SoloJayQ

·

Follow

Let’s be real, the Top 1k volume wallets on PumpFun & PumpSwap is made up almost entirely of bots.

The only humans spotted in the rankings are

Cupsey (#633), MrFrog (#654), Waddle (#1465).

We’re starting to see a few more humans show up past the Top 1,500

9:22 PM · Jul 11, 2025

102

Reply

Copy link to post

Why is PumpFun launching a token?

There could be a few reasons behind it. We think the market is peaking for them, and the TGE is the final attempt to extract money from the industry before PumpFun becomes an OpenSea of this cycle. They are losing market share, and the hype around meme token launches is fading. Seems like the team is intending to create a hype to extract liquidity from the memecoin space by launching a token.

Another possibility is that PumpFun investors (e.g Alliance, Daxos Capital and others) might be pushing for TGE, because they are also not comfortable holding an illiquid equity position in a platform losing to competitors. Thus, they need an exit or a hedge. The investors’ tokens will be locked and vested (as we have seen in the distribution chart), but it is still possible for insiders to hedge their allocation and exit via perps before unlocks happen. For example, Hyperliquid has already listed $PUMP on its platform pre-market.

Hyperliquid

@HyperliquidX

·

Follow

By community request, Hyperliquid has listed PUMP-USD hyperps. You can now long or short the unlaunched $PUMP token with up to 3x leverage.

9:06 AM · Jul 10, 2025

3K

Reply

Copy link to post

Or, they may indeed need a token to beat the competitors. There are many ways to boost the ecosystem and adoption via a token. For example, they can subsidise creators and activity on the platform using $PUMP as an incentive. However, this practice never ended well for investors as the price trends down with subsidies. Therefore, it can end up being a very costly bet.

$PUMP? No, thank you

Here are some more reasons to be careful with buying $PUMP during a public sale:

Limited upside

$4b valuation limits the upside of $PUMP. It is already a big number. Potential 2x - 3x for the risk of being an exit liquidity for insiders, who will sell SOL for USD through Kraken? It is not a good risk-reward plan in our view. Furthermore, it is not clear what role $PUMP will play within the ecosystem. Another governance token? If yes, the token is likely to trend toward zero after the initial hype, especially with current sentiment on socials. Moreover, the way the team communicated the “utility” of the token isn’t the best. The team is still “considering” mechanisms such as fee rebates or buybacks while TGE is less than 24hrs away. Sounds like a B plan in case the demand is weak and the extraction plan fails.

Revenue is trending down

Furthermore, as we said, the competition among launchpads is heating up, and PumpFun is losing market share. Revenue is still higher than in 2024; however, it hasn’t recovered fully and is trending down with increased competition.

Last year was great for revenue since the meme craze on PumpFun was wild. We believe those days are done. Sure, we will still have launches, and the memecoin sector will continue to grow and innovate. However, the market has learnt its lesson, and the capital will likely concentrate around a few established memecoins and cults instead.

Therefore, buying the TGE of PumpFun is likely buying a token of a losing business. We are not ruling out the initial speculative pump, especially since most of the initial circulating supply will be bought at $4b market cap, though.

Suspicions pivot

However, it is still a losing business with predatory tokenomics. Furthermore, what strikes us the most is PumpFun’s recent pivot to compete with TikTok, Facebook and Twitch. This is very surprising to us because it is currently losing the launchpad market to competitors. Competing with giants like TikTok, Facebook and Twitch on their game is reckless in our opinion.

PumpFun's post on competing with Facebook, TikTok and Twitch

TikTok’s algorithm-driven, short-form video empire has a stranglehold on younger audiences, with over 1 billion monthly active users and a hyper-engaged ecosystem that thrives on viral trends. Facebook, despite its aging demographic, still boasts nearly 3 billion monthly active users and an unmatched ad infrastructure. Twitch dominates live streaming, with 30 million daily active users and a deeply loyal gaming and creator community. These platforms have spent years/decades building network effects, refining algorithms, and securing advertiser dollars.

PumpFun has been around for a mere 1.5 years with only around 130k users, and is already losing the launchpad market to competitors. It is a very weird move in our opinion. The timing is equally suspect. With TGE coming in a couple of days, this pivot smells like a marketing gimmick to justify higher valuation.

Even if the pivot is sincere, it’s a strategic disaster. Social media is a winner-takes-all market where new entrants rarely succeed without a radical innovation or niche focus. A smarter move would be to innovate within the memecoin space, in our opinion.

And lastly, there seems to be some more suspicious activity by the team. PumpFun has recently announced that they have acquired a wallet tracker, Kolscan. The token went from around $400k to $20m in around 20 minutes. However, what worries us again that there seem to be several insiders involved in this move. Few wallets could buy-up the token just hours before the announcement. Another extraction?

SoloJay

@SoloJayQ

·

Follow

Here are the top 3 insider wallets that bought #KOLSCAN less than 24 hours before the official announcement.

1. Bought for $3900 at $180K Avg Mcap.

Entry: 22h ago, PnL: $220K

2. Bought for $15K at $500K Avg Mcap.

Entry: 6h ago, PnL: $170K

3. Bought for $4K at $330K Avg Mcap. Show more

2:30 AM · Jul 11, 2025

781

Reply

Copy link to post

TMG’s take

The crypto community isn’t blind to this, and the sentiment is mixed at the moment. We think PumpFun’s TGE, or what we’re calling “The Great Extraction”, is against the whole point of memecoins.

Memecoins are supposed to be the wild, rebellious movement against low-float, insider-driven tokens that rig the game for the few. They’re meant to give the average trader a shot at 100x dreams, a chance to ride the wave of community-driven hype and narrative.

We think the sole purpose of this token sale is further extraction, because the revenue is likely to trend down further, meaning less money for the team.

Therefore, we're not buying $PUMP. This is a pass for us. We prefer organic cults and platforms that are actually beating competitors in the market (E.g Hyperliquid).

Messari and Delphi Digital seem to be optimistic about the upcoming ICO and subsequent success of PumpFun. There could be an initial pump engineered, especially because some research firms pushing their thesis to their institutional clients; however, we think the way tokenomics and distribution are set, $PUMP will likely slowly bleed after the initial swings.

Therefore, protect your capital.

This is The Great Extraction…

For the first time ever, you can buy, sell, and hold U.S. stocks on-chain using just your crypto wallet. It’s a massive milestone for crypto adoption, and the capital rotation is just getting started… Let’s dive into what’s happening

In this report:

• Tokenised stocks are here, and why this matters

• Robinhood is expanding to Ethereum L2 – Arbitrum

• The broader market trend. Are we still early?

• TMG’s take

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Tokenised stocks are on Solana

Something huge has just happened in the last few days. Backed Finance, in partnership with Kraken, Bybit, and the Solana Foundation, launched xStocks, bringing over 55 tokenised U.S. stocks and ETFs (e.g., Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, SPY) to Solana. It is huge because it allows anyone to buy and sell U.S stocks like Tesla, Netflix, anytime and anywhere. This is a first of its kind, and it’s a major unlock for crypto adoption.

These assets, issued as SPL tokens, are tradable on Kraken and Bybit as well on-chain. Integration with Solana DeFi protocols, such as Raydium, Kamino, and Jupiter, enables users to utilise tokenised stocks for liquidity provision, swaps, and collateral 24/7, anytime from anywhere.

The Solana Post

@thesolanapost

·

Follow

You can now buy Tesla ( $TSLAx) and Nvidia ( $NVDAx) stocks on Solana.

12:13 AM · Jul 1, 2025

1.8K

Reply

Copy link to post

Why This Matters for Crypto and TradFi

The launch of xStocks on Solana is a pivotal step toward mainstream adoption of tokenised real-world assets (RWAs). By combining the liquidity and accessibility of crypto with the stability and familiarity of U.S. equities, xStocks offers:

• Democratized Access: Investors in regions with limited access to U.S. stock markets can now participate using crypto wallets and DeFi platforms.

• Enhanced Liquidity: Tokenised stocks can be traded and utilised in ways traditional equities cannot, such as in DeFi protocols, creating deeper market liquidity.

• Innovation in Portfolio Management: Investors can diversify portfolios by blending crypto and traditional assets, all directly from a crypto wallet.

This is huge progress because it is a stepping stone toward a fully integrated global financial system. The ability to trade stocks like Tesla or Nvidia on DEX aggregator or use them as collateral in DeFi is a game-changer in our opinion. Just imagine taking loans against your SP500 stock from your comfortable sofa at home. No going to the banks, no bureaucracy. Fast, easy, transparent and now anyone can do this.

Liquidity pools with tokenised SP500 for passive income

Looking ahead, as more assets move on-chain — potentially including bonds, commodities, or real estate— flood gates are open for crypto to absorb all the capital from TradFi, which is good for L1 assets like SOL, DeFi tokens and memes due to the wealth effect it will create.

We can from see the data below that the launch was successful relative to what was before, the volumes of tokenised stocks has surged massively. However, it still averages around $6m - $7m a day and almost all of that volume happens on Solana. This amount is relatively modest, however, we should remember that it is still early days for tokenised stocks.

The Solana Post

@thesolanapost

·

Follow

Solana completely dominates tokenized asset volume.

8:42 AM · Jul 4, 2025

119

Reply

Copy link to post

How does xStocks work?

Backed Finance, founded in 2021 and headquartered in Switzerland, is a leading issuer of tokenised real-world assets (RWAs), specialising in compliant tokenised equities and ETFs.

Each xStock is a token representing a U.S.-listed stock or ETFs, backed 1:1 by real shares or ETFs units custodied by a licensed 3rd party. This ensures the token’s price mirrors the underlying asset, with redemption options for cash value.

List of Custodians

Backed Finance formed the xStocks Alliance, a coalition including Kraken, Bybit, Solana, Chainlink, Kamino, Raydium, Jupiter, and AlchemyPay. The alliance aims to build an open, liquid market for tokenised RWAs, emphasising neutrality, transparency, and accessibility.

Chainlink provides oracle infrastructure, including xStocks Data Streams for real-time price accuracy and the Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to support future multi-chain expansion.

This is how it works:

• Acquisition: Users can buy xStocks on Kraken, Bybit, or Solana DeFi platforms (e.g., Jupiter) simply trading them with assets like SOL or USDC.

• Trading: Tokens are traded 24/7 just like any other crypto token, with main liquidity being on standard AMM platforms like Raydium.

• Redemption: To mint or redeem, you must be KYC-verified with Kraken (and soon other exchanges). The token grants any KYC-verified holder the legal right to redeem it for the cash value of their equity token at the off-chain price (not the on-chain trading price)."

• DeFi Use Cases: xStocks can be used as collateral, lent to earn yield, or provided as liquidity in DeFi pools, which opens up a new frontier in the risk curve available for investors and traders. This is an incredible combination: the power of TradFi with the innovation of DeFi. For example, you can earn yield while holding the SP500 index or take out a loan against it to buy a house, etc.

• Self-Custody: Users control their xStocks in non-custodial wallets like Solflare or Phantom, enhancing security and privacy.

• Fractional Ownership: You can start investing in the stock market with as little as $1

Still Early, But On The Right Track

However, it is important to remember that it is still very early days, and these tokenised stocks aren’t battle-tested yet. Furthermore, we can see that the issuer is registered in the Jersey Channel Islands, which is not an ideal location to convince users about the legitimacy and soundness of what backs these stocks.

Issuers place of registry

Furthermore, liquidity is another issue. Despite generating buzz on social media, the liquidity of some of these assets is currently very thin. As low as $1,000 buy on GOOGL is causing over 2% in slippage. This is unacceptable for solid trading volumes. However, it’s still early for on-chain stocks. TSLA and SPY stocks can already handle $100,000 trades with just 1% slippage — still not ideal, but promising. We believe liquidity will deepen over time especially with solid backing it has from prominent industry partners.

Slippage resulting in $1000 swap to GOOGLx

Another challenge is that, since the stocks aren’t natively issued, price discovery occurs off-chain. However, the stock market closes on weekends, while crypto markets remain active. This forces market makers to take on additional risk when holding these assets over weekends, leading them to widen spreads. As a result, trading these assets over the weekend is likely suboptimal for professional traders, and retail investors will end up paying a premium price.

The Broader Trend

Despite the above challenges, the trend is clear and the floodgates are open. xStocks is just one part of a broader movement, with multiple well-known platforms recognising the potential market for on-chain stocks. For example, Robinhood, known for its superb UX, has recently announced its plans to roll out tokenised stocks on Arbitrum.

Arbitrum

@arbitrum

·

Follow

Replying to @arbitrum

Starting today, @RobinhoodApp will launch tokenized stocks on Arbitrum One, and later - a Robinhood Layer 2 blockchain utilizing the Orbit stack.

Robinhood will be issuing 200+ US stock and ETF tokens on Arbitrum One, for EU customers directly in their Robinhood app.

To their Show more

9:09 PM · Jun 30, 2025

368

Reply

Copy link to post

30% of Robinhood’s revenue already comes crypto activities. By going after tokenised stocks it is now doubling down on crypto, starting with European investors who can trade over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs around the clock, five days a week, with zero commissions.

What’s particularly interesting is Robinhood’s ambition to go beyond public equities. They’re rolling out tokenised shares of private giants like OpenAI and SpaceX. That is very cool in our opinion, though they have been some backlash from OpenAI itself on Robinhood’s move.

OpenAI Newsroom

@OpenAINewsroom

·

Follow

These “OpenAI tokens” are not OpenAI equity. We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it. Any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval—we did not approve any transfer.

Please be careful.

1:36 AM · Jul 3, 2025

13.4K

Reply

Copy link to post

However, Robinhood doesn’t intend to stop there. Once the experiment on Arbitrum is successfully rolled out, Robinhood is planning to take things a step further by launching its own Layer 2 chain on Ethereum, designed specifically for trading and investing in tokenised stocks. Furthermore, it will host DeFi applications, Perps, Options and more.

Vlad Tenev

@vladtenev

·

Follow

Introducing The Robinhood Chain.

The first Ethereum Layer 2 optimized for real-world assets via @arbitrum—from public to private to global.

You shouldn’t have to rely on a broker to trade assets. Instead, you should be able to seamlessly trade real-world assets in seconds. Show more

12:45 PM · Jul 2, 2025

7.7K

Reply

Copy link to post

This can potentially rival with Hyperliquid, but we believe it is too early for that as there is no product yet. Therefore, we believe the Hyperliquid trade isn’t over yet and our upside targets for $HYPE remain the same, especially with bullish macro backdrop we have right now.

Comparison between xStocks and Robinhood

TMG’s Take

The pace of adoption and regulatory progress in this industry over the past 6 months has been unprecedented.

Crypto-friendly administrations are popping up worldwide, with the U.S. leading the charge in embracing blockchain tech. Memecoins are now labeled as collectibles, DeFi is getting a warm hug, and TradFi companies are sprinting into crypto through stablecoins, ETFs, and now tokenised stocks. This is a 0 to 1 moment for crypto. Stocks are trading on-chain today.

Yet, the journey is far from complete. The ultimate endgame, companies natively issuing stocks on-chain, remains on the horizon. This would eliminate intermediaries, enhance transparency, and fully integrate equity markets into decentralised ecosystems. Robinhood and xStocks is just the beginning. Floodgates are open: bonds, credit, real estate, you name it, it’s all coming on-chain in due time.

Bullish on crypto. The next 2–4 quarters are gonna be a wild ride, don’t sleep on it.

For the Dads, whose strength and love abide,

Your steady hands, our constant guide.

Through raging storms, you carve the way,

A beacon fierce, through night and day.

Your laughter echoes, warm and grand,

A love that’s built on rock, not sand.

In every tale, in every scar,

You show us who we truly are.

Through sacrifice, you bear the load,

On weary feet, down lonesome roads.

No crown you seek, no praise you crave,

Yet leave a mark beyond the grave.

Your lessons linger, sharp and clear,

In whispered hopes, in conquered fear.

Each step we take, your voice resounds,

A father’s love knows no bounds.

When shadows fall and doubts arise,

We see the fire within your eyes.

You lift us up when hearts are low,

And teach us strength we didn’t know.

In fields of dreams, you plant the seed,

With calloused hands, you meet our need.

Your silent prayers, through years untold,

Turn fleeting hopes to solid gold.

Through every fall, you stand up tall,

Your heart responds to every call.

No mountain steep, no river wide,

Can break the bond you forge with pride.

Your legacy, a radiant flame,

Burns bright in us, it bears your name.

From earth to stars, through joy and pain,

Your love will always rise again.

For fathers here, and those now gone,

Your spirit carries ever on.

Through every storm, you light the way,

Your love endures, through all our days.

To Dads, we raise this heartfelt song,

Your strength, your love, forever strong.

From dawn’s first light to twilight’s call,

We honor you, today, for all.

---

Martins Atandoh

Once I checked on you through thick and thin.

If now my voice grows faint, less near,

It’s not my love—it’s life’s frontier.

Your birthdays burned bright in my mind’s embrace,

Each date a spark, a joy to chase.

If now they blur, slip past my view,

My warmth for you remains ever true.

I stood as your rock when tempests roared,

Your refuge strong, your hope restored.

If now I’m not there when you call,

My spirit still catches your fall.

Your tears found my shoulder, your words my ear,

A listener bound by trust sincere.

If now I’m absent when grief takes hold,

My care for you will never grow cold.

When need was dire, my hand would give,

Sacrifices made so you could live.

If now my aid seems slow to land,

It’s not my heart—it’s life’s demand.

All that I was, I poured for you,

Yet if old ways fade from view,

Know I’m unchanged, my soul’s the same,

Still bound to you by love’s fierce flame.

Life’s forged me now, a man full-grown,

Its weight and call I bear alone.

Yet in my core, you’ll always stay—

For growth may shift, but love won’t sway.

Your friend, Martins Atandoh.

The crypto market is alive with whispers of what’s to come, and the charts hold the key to unlocking its secrets. We’ve crunched the numbers, and the picture they paint is nothing short of intriguing. Let’s dive in!

This cycle looks nothing like the last. There's no retail mania, yet. No easy liquidity. And no wild DeFi coins tearing through Twitter. Instead, what we have is strategic, silent, institutional accumulation

Bitcoin is being held tighter than ever, off exchanges, in cold wallets, or parked with ETFs. Stablecoins are piling up in wallets, waiting. But neither is moving fast. Why? Because the macro backdrop remains hostile: interest rates are high, liquidity is scarce, and everyone's waiting for someone else to blink first.

But under the surface, the structure is tightening. Supply is drying up. Liquidity is pooling. And sentiment is beginning to shift from hesitation to curiosity. It's not just Bitcoin anymore. Capital is eyeing Ethereum, real-world assets, and even memecoins, but it's doing so selectively.

This report is an audit of the current crypto market structure and an outlook for where it might go next. We break down on-chain supply trends, institutional accumulation through ETFs and off-chain flows.

Let's begin.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

On-chain market structure

This cycle isn't built on hype, it's built on scarcity. The blockchain tells a story that's easy to miss on the surface. Here's what the data reveals:

1. Bitcoin: Vanishing supply

• Exchange reserves are at historic lows: Only ~1.42M BTC remain on centralised exchanges, just 7.2% of the circulating supply. (as of April 2025). That's the lowest percentage since 2018. Investors, especially long-term holders, are moving their coins into cold wallets and locking them away. The supply is on a consistent downtrend, signalling a supply squeeze.

• Dormancy at record highs: Over 68% of BTC supply hasn't moved in over a year, and 42% hasn't moved in more than 3 years. This is structural conviction and a potential powder keg if demand spikes.

• Whale activity confirms strength: Mid-tier whales (100-1,000 BTC) are still accumulating even after the $100K peak, increasing their share from 20.8% to 23.07%. Larger whales (>10,000 BTC) have only slightly trimmed, likely for rebalancing, not exiting.

2. Ethereum: The staking squeeze

• Exchange reserves just north of 5% of supply: Similarly, ETH on centralised exchanges has hit an all-time low ~5.3%. The trend is clearly down.

• More than 28% of ETH is staked: With over 34M ETH staked, protocol incentives have engineered a supply squeeze. Add in DeFi and self-custody, and today, the sell-side liquidity is thinner than ever.

• ETH is following, not leading - yet: ETH/BTC has lagged for months (until recently, we have analysed this below), but structural conditions suggest that when ETH demand returns, the rally could be explosive due to limited supply.

3. Stablecoins: Sidelined capital waiting

• Record supply, record patienceStablecoin market cap hit a new high of $247B, with Tether ($153.6B) and USDC ($60.8B) dominating. Yet most of this capital remains inactive.

• Deployment has slowed dramaticallyInflows/outflows dropped over 80% between March and April. Stablecoins are sitting in DeFi or wallets, earning yield, but not chasing risk.

• Stablecoins now drive alt rotationsForget BTC rotations, today, stablecoins are the real engine of alt rallies. When they move, the market moves. But so far? Still parked.

What does it all tell us? On-chain data paints a picture of a market coiled and waiting. Bitcoin and Ethereum are structurally illiquid. Stablecoins are abundant but patient. Supply is tight while capital is smarter compared to previous cycles. Now, let's take a broader view.

Off-Chain forces: Institutions and ETF flows

This cycle, institutions are steering the ship. Bitcoin is now a treasury asset, not a trade. Just look at the numbers:

• MicroStrategy now holds 580,250 BTC (~$61b), including 7,390 BTC acquired in May 2025 alone.

• Metaplanet, dubbed "Asia's MicroStrategy," holds 7,800 BTC valued at ~$800M.

• Even GameStop raised $1.5B via convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin, signalling that treasury-driven BTC buys are not a one-off trend.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold 800,000+ BTC, reinforcing this shift from speculation to store-of-value behaviour. This capital is sticky- they are not going to take profits and won't be rotating into alts.

But the trend is evolving. Ethereum is now entering the institutional treasury conversation as well. In May 2025, SharpLink Gaming (SBET) raised $425M in a private equity round, led by Consensys, ParaFi, and others, explicitly to buy ETH as a treasury reserve asset. Institutions are beginning to see Ethereum as programmable money, with cash flow, staking yield, and real use cases.

Bitcoin's identity has matured: ETFs, pensions, and governments are racing to accumulate digital gold. However, this structural demand removes liquidity from the market and delays any meaningful rotation into riskier assets. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs are also gaining momentum, with inflows like BlackRock's $24.9M ETH purchase on May 22 sparking a 2.3% price jump and 18% spike in volume. ETH ETF AUM reached $2.49B by mid-May, despite outflows from Grayscale.

ETFs are driving up prices by removing assets from circulation. That's bullish long-term, but slower and more orderly than retail-led runs.

That's the new market rhythm: slower, steadier, institution-led. But altseason/expansion doesn't wait on fundamentals, it rides momentum. To catch it early, we need to watch the signals that precede the narrative. So let's break down the charts that matter and see what they're telling us.

Quantitative look at the charts

Everyone's waiting for altseason (or some version of it), but few are watching what truly unlocks it. To know when the rotation begins, we need to track the signals that have historically preceded it: breakdowns in Bitcoin dominance, strength in ETH/BTC, and confluence across macro-crypto correlations. But this time, we need a sharper lens.

BTC + stablecoin dominance index

Instead of looking at BTC.D alone, we will look at BTC.D plus the stablecoin dominance to get a clearer picture. On the weekly timeframe, the combined Stablecoin and Bitcoin Dominance Index has remained in a strong uptrend for nearly four years, reflecting the market's long-standing preference for safety and liquidity. But that trend may be losing steam.

Over the past few months, the index has formed a rising wedge, a classic pattern that often precedes a reversal. The structure is now attempting to break down, hovering around 70.16% after topping locally at 72.83%.

The key inflection zone lies around 68.2%. A clean breakdown below this level would confirm the wedge breakdown on the higher timeframe, signalling the start of a rotation away from BTC and stables, likely toward altcoins. On the flip side, if dominance climbs back above 71%, we could see another leg higher toward 73-74%, delaying any broad risk-on environment.

If the wedge plays out to the downside, the measured move could take the index back toward the 61.14% region, a key support zone and the likely target of this breakdown.

This chart sits at a critical pivot. A breakdown would mark the official start of capital rotation. A bounce would mean altseason remains on hold. This is one of the most important charts in the market right now.

ETH/BTC: First mover of rotation

After a prolonged downtrend, ETH/BTC is showing early signs of a reversal. For nearly three years, Ethereum consistently underperformed Bitcoin, but that tide may be turning.

The pair recently reacted from a monthly demand zone (from January 2020), forming a base from April to early May. From the 0.018 level, ETH/BTC rallied sharply, climbing nearly 40% to 0.026. The local bottom was set at 0.017, marking the lowest point in the current cycle.

This bounce also coincided with a long-standing diagonal trendline, which acted as a resistance ever since 2025 started. Currently, ETH/BTC is attempting to hold above the 0.023 level, a critical zone that could validate the shift in structure if maintained.

If this level holds, 0.029 is the next target to watch over the coming weeks. A sustained rally here would be a strong signal for broader altcoin strength, as ETH/BTC often leads the rotation from majors to alts.

Rotation often starts with ETH. This shift is the first breadcrumb.

HYPE / BTC: Relative strength

HYPE/BTC paints a similar story. After retesting its all-time high of December 2024, the pair faced resistance and has since pulled back. It's now approaching a key support area, marked by line number 5 on the chart.

This pullback, if held, could set the stage for the next leg higher. HYPE outperforming Bitcoin is an important signal. In previous cycles, altcoins that show strength vs BTC ahead of broader rotation tend to lead once the real momentum kicks in.

What does it all tell us? Altcoin rotations are happening, but they're selective. Only a few names are absorbing real liquidity.

OTHERS chart (Excluding Top 10)

The OTHERS chart offers a direct lens into the broader altcoin landscape, excluding the top 10 coins by market cap, and right now, it's showing early signs of strength.

Weekly Timeframe Setup

On a weekly basis, price bounced strongly from a longstanding demand zone established in October 2024. This zone ranges from $226B to $190B, and it was retested multiple times between February and May 2025.

Although price briefly capitulated below the zone to $175B, it quickly reclaimed the range, forming what now appears to be a higher low. This reclaim aligns with the 200-week EMA, which currently sits around $196B, adding solid confluence to the bounce.

If this structure holds, it sets the stage for a potential new higher high on the weekly, indicating a possible trend reversal for the broader alt market.

Daily Timeframe Coil

Zooming into the daily timeframe, price is coiling between two major levels:

• Resistance: $288B

• Support: $247B

Currently, OTHERS is holding above the 200-day EMA ($257B), a critical technical support level. If this coil persists and the 200 EMA continues to hold, this would represent constructive accumulation.

A clean breakout above $288B could serve as a trigger for the next leg higher in altcoins, potentially opening up a 25-30% move into the $360B-$370B zone, which is the next clear resistance.

This setup whispers smart accumulation rather than euphoria. The confluence of weekly demand, 200 EMAs, and range-bound consolidation points to a maturing altcoin market preparing for expansion. The breakout zone is clear. Now it's about confirmation.

Charts show the setup, narratives decide the follow-through. Let's tap into the flow beneath the surface.

What's Different This Cycle

Everyone's waiting for the same fireworks as 2021. But this isn't 2021, and this time, the mechanics, motivations, and market structure are completely different. Let's break down the key shifts that make this cycle a different beast:

Institutional Behavior ≠ Retail Mania

In 2021, altseason was driven by retail-fueled euphoria, everything pumped, often without a clear reason. Hype alone was enough. But this time around, the flows are different. Institutions are leading the charge, and they don't YOLO into memes. They allocate capital strategically, benchmark performance, and require both liquidity and a solid narrative before committing.

ETF inflows into Bitcoin, along with growing institutional interest in real-world assets and Ethereum liquid staking tokens, point to a clear top-down capital stack: Bitcoin first, Ethereum next, and then, only maybe, large-cap altcoins with regulatory clarity. As a result, any altcoin rally this cycle is likely to be slower to start, more selective, and rooted in fundamentals or perceived real-world value rather than blind speculation.

Dominance stays higher for longer

Bitcoin Dominance remains above 60%, and Stablecoin Dominance is climbing alongside it, an unusual pairing this deep into a bull market. In past cycles, BTC dominance typically dropped quickly once price broke out, signalling a flood of capital into altcoins. This time, it's been sticky. Bitcoin's grip hasn't loosened yet, and that divergence is telling.

While BTC.D has started to dip after a long uptrend, the move isn't yet strong enough to confirm full-blown rotation. Meanwhile, the Stablecoin Dominance Index remains elevated, signalling that a significant amount of capital is still on the sidelines, parked and waiting, not yet confident in where to go.

The takeaway: the market remains cautious. A rotation into alts is possible, but this time, it will follow a confirmation.

Rotation may be tactical, not frenzied

Instead of a "rising tide lifts all boats" environment, this cycle is shaping up to be more like sniper fire, capital rotating with precision into sectors that show clear catalysts, and exiting just as fast once the momentum fades.

We've already seen this with narratives like AI, RWAs, and LRTs. These sectors ignite quickly, fueled by hype and headlines, but the attention span is short, and rotations are fleeting. What we're witnessing is a series of micro-altseasons, intense, short-lived rallies that might last only a few weeks before capital moves on.

There won't be a broad, sustained rally across all alts. Instead, success will come from identifying narratives early, managing risk aggressively, and staying ahead of the exits. Strategy matters more than ever.

What could kill the altseason before it starts?

The setup looks ripe: sidelined capital, early ETH strength, and signs of rotation. However, here's what could still derail the altcoin thesis, even with all the right ingredients on paper.

Bitcoin + stablecoin dominance refuses to break down

The combined dominance index (BTC + stablecoins) is hovering near 73%, but it hasn't broken. If it pushes higher instead, it signals that capital continues to favor safety: Bitcoin and the sidelines. A breakout in Bitcoin dominance above the prior highs (~65%) and a continued climb toward 70-71% would confirm that institutional flows are sticking with BTC, not diversifying. Without a structure shift to the downside on this combined index, the rotation case weakens considerably.

Stablecoin "Dry Powder" isn't bullish if it stays parked

$240B+ in stablecoins might sound like firepower, but only if it actually fires. Right now, a big portion of this capital might be chasing 5%+ yields in TradFi via Treasury bills or on-chain RWA protocols. That's capital earning passively, not rotating into risk. If the macro stays tight and yields remain elevated, some of that capital might never rotate, it's already found its return elsewhere.

Ethereum lag would stall the entire rotation

ETH is the gateway to everything else. If ETH/BTC fails to hold its recent structure shift, or if an ETH ETF faces delays or rejection, then broad confidence in alts will suffer. Alts have never had a sustained run without ETH leading. If Ethereum can't break through with ETF momentum and improved fundamentals, smaller-cap coins won't stand a chance. ETH must outperform for capital to climb further down the risk ladder.

TMG’s Take

This time feels different. Tightly held supply. Record stablecoin reserves. ETFs absorbing Bitcoin like clockwork. Every data point is whispering the same thing, we're close.

But don't expect a repeat of 2021. The rules have changed. So have the players. This will likely be a sniper's market. A rotation game. Selective. Narrative-driven. Unforgiving to the unprepared.

What we can see from the chart is that Bitcoin dominance is stalling. Stablecoin dominance is peaking. Ethereum is stirring. And sentiment is finally shifting from hesitation to anticipation. However, don't rush, we still need the last confirmation from Total 3, BTC. D and Stablecoin dominance. If everything is good, charts say we have a good chance of having a bullish summer or at least bullish 6-8 weeks with a select few assets outperforming.

What to do? Wait for meaningful pullbacks, Dollar-Cost Average/Value Average or yield farm quality while we are on the hunt for new plays

1. A Fancy HQ, But Where’s the Action? The AU’s $200 million headquarters in Addis Ababa, courtesy of China, is a gleaming monument. But to what? Bureaucracy? Endless meetings? While delegates snap selfies in its polished halls, we’re left wondering why our continent’s potential is still locked in a filing cabinet. A shiny building doesn’t solve youth unemployment or crumbling infrastructure. Benefit to us: Demand an AU that prioritizes action over aesthetics—our jobs, our roads, our future depend on it.

2. 54 Countries, Zero Momentum With 54 nations, the AU should be a juggernaut, uniting Africa’s diversity into unstoppable progress. Instead, it moves slower than a traffic jam in Nairobi. Conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and beyond burn while the AU drafts resolutions nobody reads. We need an AU that acts fast—resolving disputes, securing borders, and creating opportunities for us to thrive across the continent. Why it matters: A united, decisive AU means safer communities and open markets for our hustle, wherever we are.

3. Peacekeeping? More Like Peace-Waiting. The AU’s peacekeeping missions sound heroic, but the African Standby Force—promised since 2003—is still “almost ready.” Meanwhile, crises in Mali, South Sudan, and the DRC fester, threatening our safety and stability. We deserve peacekeepers who show up, not stand around. Our win: A stronger AU peacekeeping force means safer regions, letting us focus on building our lives, not dodging conflict.

4. Leadership That’s All Talk, No Walk. The AU’s revolving door of chairpersons brings fresh promises but recycled results. Every term, a new leader vows “reform,” yet nothing changes. We need leaders who deliver, not pose for photo-ops. What’s in it for us: A reformed AU with bold, accountable leadership could unlock trade, travel, and opportunities that make our lives easier and richer.

5. Cash-Strapped and Donor-Dependent. The AU’s budget is a mess—member states dodge dues, leaving foreign donors like the EU and China to foot the bill. This isn’t independence; it’s reliance. We deserve an AU that’s financially self-sufficient, amplifying our voice, not foreign agendas. Why we benefit: A self-funded AU invests in African priorities—our schools, our hospitals, our startups—not donor whims.

6. Summits: Grand Speeches, Zero Follow-Through. The AU’s annual summits are a parade of private jets and promises about “Agenda 2063.” But why wait 40 years for a better Africa? We’re hustling now—building businesses, raising families, chasing dreams. We need free movement of goods and people today, not more PowerPoint slides. Our payoff: A summit that delivers real policies means we can travel, trade, and grow without borders holding us back.

7. Youth Power? More Like Youth Ignored Africa’s median age is 19. We’re young, innovative, and driving change on X, TikTok, and beyond. Yet the AU’s decision-makers are older than most constitutions, sidelining our voice. We deserve a seat at the table, not crumbs from “youth empowerment” seminars. Why it’s urgent: An AU that listens to us unlocks our potential—more jobs, more innovation, more impact.

8. Agenda 2063: A Dream Deferred Too Long. Agenda 2063 promises a “prosperous, integrated, peaceful Africa”—but 40 years is too long to wait. We can’t afford to inherit the same problems our parents faced. The AU must act now to deliver on trade, security, and unity. Our benefit: A proactive AU means a stronger economy and safer streets for us and our kids, starting today.

The Bottom Line: Our Future Is on the Line. The African Union isn’t hopeless—it’s got the framework to be a game-changer. But it’s coasting when it should be sprinting. As Africans, our dreams, our hustle, our future depend on an AU that steps up. Less talk, more action. Fewer summits, more solutions. We deserve a continent where borders don’t block our ambitions, where peace is real, and where our voices shape the future. AU, the clock’s ticking—Africa’s waiting.

BTC is screaming, Alts are silent, and the FED just took the summer off. The bond market's under pressure, deficits are exploding, and crypto could pivot fast. This isn't noise- it's the calm before the capital wave. Miss this and you may miss the entire next leg.

TLDR:

• FED Signals Delay: FED members suggest no summer rate cuts; market shifts expectations to September or October.

• Rising Yields & Deficit Worries: A new tax bill may add $3.8T to U.S. deficits, pushing bond yields higher and pressuring risk assets.

• BTC Leading the Pack: Bitcoin is breaking into all-time highs, but the broader crypto market hasn't followed yet.

• Outlook & Strategy: If BTC enters price discovery, expect capital to rotate into majors and altcoins; otherwise, prepare to accumulate on dips to $95k.

Topics covered:

• FED Speak This Week.

• The Tax Bill & The Market's Reaction.

• TMG’s Take.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

FED speak this week

This week, on the data front, there aren't any major releases, and therefore, there isn't much to get excited about. However, this week we do have a plethora of FED speak. So far, the most notable of these is FED Member Williams (a voting member), who said "it's not going to be that in June or July, that we're going to understand what's happening. It's going to be a process of collecting data and getting a better picture". This is a key FED member essentially suggesting that the FED will be taking the summer off, not cutting rates. As a result, the market is now pricing in the first Interest Rate cut to come at the October FED Meeting, but the September Meeting is still on the table. But, to put this in perspective, just 6 weeks ago, the market was pricing for the FED to cut at the July Meeting.

Our view is that it's still very possible that we see a slowdown in the economic data (due to high uncertainty) over the summer, and therefore the September Meeting is still in play, for an Interest Rate cut.

What's next

With $3.8T in new deficits looming and 30% of U.S. debt needing refinance this year, markets are nearing a flashpoint. If yields break higher, the rotation into hard assets could accelerate overnight. Will you be positioned on time?

The tax bill & the markets' reaction

Another topic of interest for markets is the new, large budget reconciliation bill that's working its way through Congress. This bill is essentially re-laying out where and how the US is going to increase and decrease its spending over the next 10 years, with there also being adjustments to taxes.

The expectation for the bill is that it'll increase deficits by $ 3.8 trillion over the next 10 years, with the majority of it being front-loaded in the first 5 years. Essentially, this means that the US are continuing to print money with deficits continuing to increase at an alarming rate.

This is despite DOGE and the lack of impact DOGE has had in reducing the deficits. The result of this has been a downgrade in US debt from Moody's, and Bond Yields have continued to move higher, which is concerning for the Treasury that must refinance nearly 30% of the total US debt this year, at far higher rates than that debt was previously issued at.

US10Y Yields are now pushing towards their recent highs, alongside the US30Y Yield breaking above its range highs. Historically, rising Yields have put pressure on risk assets.

US10Y Yield 1D Timeframe:

US30Y Yield 1D Timeframe:

Currently, there are multiple narratives that support Yields moving higher. These are the fiscal and budget concerns, and then the fact that the macro data has come in more positively than expected recently, potentially pushing recession fears slightly further out.

This big question has recently been around the dominance of the dollar, and the concerns around the fiscal situation in the US have resulted in a more general move out of US Treasuries from market participants and the 'hard' assets catching a bid. That is Gold and BTC.

Gold 1D Timeframe:

However, despite the bid in Gold and BTC, we're not really seeing this spill over into the rest of Crypto, at least not yet. Sure, we've had some pockets of the market that have seen relief rallies, but many coins remain well below their all-time highs. We're not seeing animal spirits in the market, and this may not come until some of the Trump policy uncertainty is behind us, which would give the FED greater clarity, which would then open the door for them to begin cutting Interest Rates again.

However, there is another scenario in which we could see a more meaningful amount of liquidity flow back into Alts/Meme’s. This would be Bitcoin breaking out above its all-time highs and going well into price discovery. With that being said, today we have seen BTC break up into its all-time highs. If price can meaningfully push higher into price discovery, that'll likely be a catalyst for retail to start flooding back in, and result in liquidity flowing into riskier assets like Alts and Meme's.

If BTC breaks out (above $110k) or it can consolidate above $105k and then breakout, the expected target would be $120k.

BTC 1D Timeframe:

So far, the rally in BTC is just that, isolated mostly to BTC, hence we keep seeing Dominance push higher (BTC outperforming the wider market). In previous cycles, we have seen BTC move up first, Dominance go higher, and then, when BTC consolidates after having gone into price discovery, that's when ALTS make their respective breakouts and Dominance comes down for a few months. An indication of this would be BTC.D breaking below its uptrend line.

BTC.D 3D Timeframe:

TMG’s take

This remains one of the trickiest market environments of recent times, with volatile price action just adding to that. Overall, the outlook remains really 'hit-and-miss' with the economic data holding up, but showing signs of slowing, whilst the whip-sawing policy out of the Trump administration increases the level of uncertainty.

This means risk appetite in markets is reduced until either the uncertainty clears, or the FED steps in and lowers rates, which won't happen unless the uncertainty is removed or there is a material breakdown in the macro data.

However, the "hard assets" (Gold, and now BTC) have broken out, and if BTC goes into price discovery, we’ll have to get more risk-on in the Majors and we’ll also look to potentially pull the trigger on some new plays. Previously, BTC going into price discovery and then consolidating, has always brought about new opportunities, which we've been fantastic at taking advantage of.

If BTC can't go into price discovery, then a pullback into $105k is the most likely outcome, and if that support cannot hold, then $95k will be on the cards. $95k is where we'd look to accumulate BTC again. But if BTC goes into price discovery, we'll look to deploy our capital into the other Majors, which we then would expect to play catch up to BTC.

The memecoin market is on fire once again, propelling the sector to a $70 billion valuation with $19 billion weekly volume. If you want exposure, this is how we would be buying! Let's jump in…

Memecoins are a unique intersection of internet culture and finance. They are fun, easy to understand, and one of the best speculating tools, and if you play your cards right, they can deliver returns that make Wall Street suits cry in the corner.

With BTC hovering just below its all-time highs, participants are hungry for risky plays, and the broader memecoin market is picking up.

In this report:

• Memecoin market snapshot

• OG vs. Newcomers

• Emerging trends

• TMG’s take

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Memecoin market snapshot

After a period of chop and silence, the memecoin sector is on a rollercoaster again. The charts don't lie, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen some spicy price action. The total market cap of the memecoin sector is up 36% to $70b market cap in the last 7 days, while volumes are 4x to reach $19b in just a week

However, despite the massive gains, the sector is still down about 40% from its ATHs of $127b market cap. Yeah, there is still a lot of catching up to do, and this pump is nothing compared to what we have seen between November 24 to January 25.

What's wild, though, is how memecoins are straight-up flexing on every other crypto sector yet again. AI tokens? Layer 1s? DeFi? They're all behind in terms of performance. Memecoins are leading the pack as the best-performing asset class in crypto over the last few weeks.

This is textbook mean reversion in action. When the market turned risk-off, memecoins took the hardest gut punch. But now? Greed's back in the driver's seat, and these memes are roaring back with double-digit daily returns. Additionally, people are bored, inflation is eating savings, and traditional markets are slow. Memecoins offer a middle finger to that system: a chance to gamble on something that doesn't take itself seriously but could still make you rich quite fast if played right.

Thus, the sector is alive once again. Projections estimate the memecoin market could grow to $925.2 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.7% from $70 billion in 2025. What does it mean? There is still a massive upside potential for this sector, and most of the meme action is happening on two chains: Solana and Ethereum. Solana accounts for 39.6% of DEX trading volume in Q1 2025 and 15% of the memecoin market cap, driven by low transaction costs and high throughput.

Ethereum still hosts about 45% of all memecoin projects and 32 out of the top 50 memecoins, leading in market cap and trading volume due to its strong liquidity and network effect. However, in the last leg up, PumpFun memes (on Solana) have been leading in terms of performance relative to EVM memes, which is interesting considering that PumpFun memes used to be heavily manipulated, sniped and extractive.

Hyperliquid's HyperEVM chain has also hosted some meme activity, however, the ecosystem is very nascent, and it will be hard for memes to take off there without improving the onboarding process.

OGs vs. newcomers: Memecoin dynamics

What's interesting is the split between old and new memes. Established players like FARTCOIN and PEPE are soaking up most of the capital right now. This is likely due to the listings they have. Most of the 2024 memes have a major CEX listing, and thus liquidity can easily flow to them. However, on-chain memes are slowly heating up, and we believe there will be a true runner that will make trenches great again.

It happened in previous bear-to-bull market periods as well. Investors initially flock to familiar names during renewed optimism, but eventually chase new shiny things as the cycle progresses. For example, in 2021, DOGE pumped before runners like Shiba and SafeMoon emerged.

The OG vs. newbie split mirrors human psychology. Established tokens feel "safe" because they've survived a cycle, but their upside is capped - FARTCOIN isn't doing another 1000x. New memes, meanwhile, are high-risk lottery tickets. The trick is finding ones with staying power: a strong community, a catchy narrative, and a big idea/movement to cause a retail mania.

However, despite massive gains, the memes are still down 70%-80% from their highs on average. Therefore, there is no need to FOMO or feel that you have missed out. It is nearly impossible to time the bottom perfectly, and most of the holders are still down a lot.

Emerging trends: The rise of ICM and beyond

In the meantime, while established memecoins are pumping, some new narratives are forming. One of them is ICM - Internet Capital Markets. Unlike traditional memecoins tied to animal themes or internet memes, ICM aims to represent a broader "paradigm shift" toward decentralised platforms that empower creators and communities to monetise ideas directly through tokenisation.

The narrative is fueled by platforms like the Believe app on Solana, which allows users to turn tweets/ideas into tokens instantly via projects like $LAUNCHCOIN, fostering a creator economy where social traction translates to financial value.

The volume of these launchpads is picking up and rivalling successfully with PumpFun. However, despite sounding fancy, we believe it is just repackaging of old ideas. We had ICOs, NFTs, and Memes, AI agents previously, and the ICM is the latest iteration of the old ideas, and these are essentially wrapped memecoins if you dig deeper philosophically. As a category, it is likely to be smaller than the AI agent narrative we had a few months back.

However, we can already see a narrative push on social media, and many influencers are jumping on this wagon. Therefore, we are sceptical about it at the moment, though we are keeping a close eye on it. It is important to remember to stay safe, as this recent rally might end up being a bear market relief rally, which is not ideal for the formation of new categories. We are watching closely for upside confirmations.

TMG’s take:

Currently, 1 in 2 adults in the U.S. gamble, and casino revenues are soaring, hitting a staggering $160 billion a year, with no signs of slowing down. In fact, it is growing by 5%-6% annually. Even more interesting is that nearly half of that revenue is generated online, and digital/crypto gambling platforms are growing.

The message is clear: people crave the thrill of hitting it big, and that desire is only growing stronger by the day. Memecoins offer the same electrifying excitement as gambling but with far better odds and the same potential for massive rewards. With billions of dollars pouring into the gambling industry yearly, memecoins still have massive upside potential, and we can see it already in the market.

A $70B market cap is still small potatoes next to the $3T crypto market. Memecoins are the ultimate retail choice - accessible, memeable, easy to understand and play with. However, the market has entered into “Greed” and is almost getting into the “Extreme Greed” phase in terms of sentiment.

As Warren Buffett says, be fearful when others are greedy, and we would be fearful of FOMOing into memecoins just yet. That being said, our general market stance has changed, and we are looking for entries and potential 20x-100x plays moving on from here. The best memes are born in disbelief, not euphoria.

The market has spoken, and memes are back in the game, however, they are still way down from ATHs. As we said, this can end up being a bear market bull trap, therefore, it is important not to rush into things without the market confirming a new cycle. Our base case is that we will see a pullback and chop there for a while before going into strong price discovery.

In the meantime, if you are feeling underexposed, you can potentially use concentrated liquidity pools as a way to gradually get exposure to leading memes and majors such as SOL, BTC, FARTCOIN, WIF, SPX, etc, which DCA way down while earning trading fees if the prices were to pull back substantially.

We would be careful of adding significant spot positions on memes because the market is overbought and is in “Greed” sentiment. Therefore, we would be looking for a pullback to reassess what memes we want to add to our

I'm not an atheist, but if I were,

These are ones that would help me find God.

(besides the Bible)

Even if they don't convert you, these are worth reading.

Selected because they are:

-Short

-Influential

-Accessible

-Narrative driven mostly

I find stories about real, amazing people more engaging than theology.

These illustrate why Christianity conquered Rome.

Now let’s get into it:

1) Martyrdom of Polycarp

The authorities come for the old bishop of Smyrna; he refuses to do pagan sacrifice.

Martyr means "witness." Polycarp was one of the first.

Written by his followers, who saw it happen.

Note the vivid details in these excerpts:

2) Letters of Ignatius of Antioch

Polycarp was following the example of bishop Ignatius of Antioch.

We have letters Ignatius wrote to many Christian communities

...on his journey to face the lions in Rome.

Ignatius met Polycarp on his way.

Ignatius is more readable than St. Paul, and highly quotable.

He knew how to use metaphors well.

Like Polycarp, he comes from the first or second generation of Christians after Jesus' disciples.

Here are some notable excerpts:

3) Justin Martyr, First Apology

A concise statement/defense of early 2nd century Christian beliefs & practices, for Emps. Antoninus and Marcus Aurelius.

Justin trained in philosophy before his conversion.

It shows.

Tertullian is another good one; I prefer Justin's style.

4) Gregory Thaumaturgus, In Praise of Origen

Gregory writes in honor of his teacher,

One of the most influential Christian thinkers ever,

From Alexandria, the intellectual capital of the ancient world.

G. focuses on Origen's character, his virtues, and his pedagogy.

5) Infancy Gospel, "Protoevangelium" of James

The baby in that painting below is not Jesus, but his mother, Mary

This text tells that story - Mary's birth and life before Jesus came along.

#1 source for early Chr. interest in / beliefs about Mary.

Attributed to the Apostle.

6) Passion of Perpetua

Amazing story about a Christian lady and her friends, in Roman Carthage, Africa.

She has a series of stirring dreams before her final contest in the arena.

Her death scene is gripping, unforgettable, and 100% realistic, unlike many martyr stories.

7). Life of Antony

Famous founding figure of Christian monasticism,

Original Desert Father.

The book had a major impact on St. Augustine's conversion;

Has it all: Demons in the Egyptian desert, debates with sages and heretics, exchanges with Emperors.

Michelangelo's Antony:

8) Life of St. Macrina

Fascinating portrait of a very talented aristocratic Christian family,

Macrina is the eldest daughter.

By her brother, St. Gregory of Nyssa, noted orator, theologian, bishop, and critic of slavery.

St. Basil the Great (other brother) appears too.

When you read, remember:

The early Christians were Romans.

They were not like us.

They thought, spoke, and acted differently.

Learn to understand their ways, and you will grow, no matter what you believe.

When Bitcoin bounces, the market pays attention. But during this latest rally, three tokens stole the spotlight, each for very different reasons. We believe these are going to be outperformers. Let's dive in…

Crypto doesn't wait for permission. After weeks of chop, volatility, and sideways sentiment, the market roared back to life. Bitcoin rallied from $74,500 on April 7th to nearly $97,000 by May 2nd, a clean 30% bounce. The total crypto market cap jumped from $2.31 trillion to $3 trillion, coming close to key psychological territory. Ethereum climbed 35%, while Solana ripped nearly 65% during its April local low and recent bounce highs between April 7th and April 25th.

But this wasn't just a major-asset rotation or passive ETF-driven strength. Something else was happening underneath. As majors bounced, select altcoins surged much harder, leading the move, not lagging behind it. Each of these came from a different corner of the market.

This report dives into these three assets, not because they're guaranteed winners, but because they reveal what the market cares about right now. When liquidity returns, the first to move often signals where capital, attention, and risk appetite are headed next.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

1. SUI

SUI is a Layer 1 blockchain alternative to Ethereum and Solana. It has been one of the quiet standouts during this market bounce, climbing from $1.72 lows in early April to $3.87 by May 2nd, delivering a near 125% rally. This was a multi-pronged narrative upgrade, driven by real announcements, institutional signals, and product rollouts across DeFi, gaming, and Bitcoin.

The ETF filing that got everyone talking

On May 1st, 21Shares filed an S-1 with the U.S. SEC for a SUI ETF. While approval may take time, the signal was loud and clear: institutions are eyeing SUI seriously. The news came during SUI's flagship event, Basecamp 2025, and acted as an immediate catalyst. In the 24 hours following the filing, SUI's price surged by over 10%.

This ETF narrative positions SUI in the same conversation as Solana and Ethereum, two other chains with ETF ambitions, giving it credibility and boosting liquidity prospects over time.

Bringing Bitcoin to SUI: sBTC integration

Alongside the ETF filing, the Sui Foundation announced sBTC integration, a wrapped Bitcoin asset developed by the Stacks ecosystem. This opens the door to BTCfi, a growing narrative that seeks to unlock Bitcoin's trillion-dollar liquidity for DeFi use cases.

Notably, SUI isn't just integrating Bitcoin assets. The foundation also runs a validator on the Stacks network, hinting at deeper infrastructure alignment. With over $200M in BTC TVL already on SUI, it's emerging as a serious player in the race for Bitcoin-native DeFi.

Gaming & consumer rails: SuiPlay0X1 and Mogul

The launch of SuiPlay0X1, a dedicated gaming handheld built with Playtron, signals an aggressive push by Sui into consumer products. This device supports native SUI games, as well as traditional libraries like Steam and Epic. The ambition? Bring Web2 gamers into Web3 without compromising UX.

Then there's Mogul, a fantasy Hollywood league by MoviePass. Built entirely on SUI, it allows users to draft actors, predict movie performance, and compete for rewards. With over 400,000 users on the waitlist, this could be one of SUI's viral loops into mainstream attention.

DeFi's layered maturation

Beyond narratives, SUI's DeFi layer is also maturing. Protocols like Suilend are rolling out permissionless LST creation, democratizing yield products. Over 10 teams have launched LSTs, and Suilend recently initiated a $2M SEND token buyback to reward ecosystem participants. Additionally, usage of the protocol has jumped 300% since December, with over 240,000 active wallets.

This is real usage stacking behind the chain.

Narrative convergence and ecosystem strength

What makes SUI stand out is how many lanes it's driving in: ETF speculation, Bitcoin DeFi, gaming, retail culture, and DeFi innovation. These plays are intersecting narratives, building momentum together.

The numbers behind the run

• Price (May 7): $3.45

• Market cap: $11.2B

• TVL: $1.8B in TVL and over $200M in Bitcoin assets

• Monthly active wallets: peaked at 17.6M in Feb 2025

• Developer grants funded 80+ projects with over $5M

Technical analysis: SUI/USD and SUI/BTC

SUI/USD posted a sharp upside move in April, bouncing from around $2 on April 16th to a high of $3.80, an explosive 90% rally in under a week. This move marked a strong shift in short-term momentum.

The rally was triggered after SUI tapped into a key weekly demand zone between $1.6 and $2.12. The midpoint of this zone, around $1.866, acted as a solid base, with SUI bottoming out at $1.71 on April 7th before reversing.

Currently, SUI is consolidating after rejecting just below the $3.94 resistance, failing to clear the $3.87-$3.94 supply zone. On the downside, it's holding support at $3.19, a level that's being tested repeatedly.

If $3.19 fails to hold, the next key support lies at $2.816. But structurally, the chart still would look strong even if price retraces and tests support zones, as it would likely be a bullish retest.

SUI/BTC

SUI/BTC saw a strong rally from August 2024 to January 2025, outperforming Bitcoin by over 500%. This move peaked at level 6, marking SUI's all-time high on the pair against BTC.

After topping, it retraced nearly 57% down to level 2, forming a tight falling wedge between level 4 and level 2. This structure lasted from February to late April, showing compressed volatility and waning sell pressure.

In early April, SUI put out its local bottom around level 2, eventually leading to a breakout of the wedge, flipping level 3 and running into resistance at level 4. It's now pulling back, and whether level 3 holds will decide the next leg.

The breakout marks a shift in structure. If level 3 holds as support, SUI/BTC could continue its recovery. If it fails, we're likely back inside the range.

What's next

SUI caught the ETF buzz, but another alt rallied 125% on real usage and protocol upgrades- are institutions already moving behind the scenes?

2. HYPERLIQUID

Hype was one of the clearest strengths of leaders in the DeFi sector. HYPE rallied from under $10 ($9.3) in early April to $21.7 by May 1, a near +125% gain. While Hyperliquid's core remains its low-latency perps exchange, the broader ecosystem around it is quietly unlocking new use cases for the HYPE token, and these developments are coming not just from the protocol team itself, but from the apps building on top.

Staking & fee reform: Value now flows through HYPE

One of the most anticipated updates for HYPE is its new staking and fee discount system, going live on May 5th. This introduces a tiered discount model for traders, offering up to 40% off trading fees based on how much HYPE is staked. For example:

• 10 HYPE = 5% discount

• 100K HYPE = 40% discount (Platinum)

• 500K HYPE = 40% discount (Diamond)

This creates a powerful flywheel: traders need to stake HYPE to save on fees, and as trading volume grows, demand for staking rises too.

Add to this the account linking feature that allows users to connect staking and trading accounts permanently, and you get clear stickiness built into the protocol's design.

Cypher's integration: Spending HYPE in the real world

In late April, Cypher, a third-party payments solution, integrated HYPE into its network, allowing users to spend their tokens at 100M+ merchants across 150+ countries, including support for Apple Pay and Google Pay. While this wasn't a native Hyperliquid initiative, it's a meaningful win for token utility.

The takeaway? Hyperliquid didn't push for this, builders did. The market demand to make HYPE spendable is growing, and projects are responding on their own. That's a powerful sign of ecosystem-led adoption.

HyperEVM & DeFi expansion

Hyperliquid's long-term thesis is evolving into a full DeFi platform. HyperEVM allows external projects to build on Hyperliquid's infrastructure, secured by the chain's custom HyperBFT consensus.

Early signals are strong: the first AI-native hedge fund (by Spectral Labs) was just announced to launch on Hyperliquid. That's a bold bet on its infra stack.

Meanwhile, its Assistance Fund (AF) continues to reinvest trading revenue into daily HYPE buybacks, currently holding 1.16% of the total supply and executing ~$1M in daily repurchases. This is perhaps the most consistent on-chain buy pressure among current L1/L2 tokens.

Spot markets on Hyperliquid, Thanks to the unit protocol

Hyperliquid has been historically focused on derivatives, but the first spot listings are now live-starting with BTC and ETH, and soon expanding to assets like Solana and even trending assets like Fartcoin. These listings are being enabled by Unit Protocol, a dApp building within the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

This shift marks the beginning of a broader transformation. Will the Hyperliquid Spot listing be the new Binance Spot listing?

The numbers behind the run

• Price (May 7): $21

• Market Cap: $7B

• Volume (24h): $159.9M

• Circulating Supply: 333.9M

• ATH: $34.96 (Dec 2024)

• Up from April low: +125%

• Buy pressure: $1M/day from AF

• TVL: Hype Bridge TVL: $2.25B, Hype L1: TVL $800M

Technical analysis: HYPE/USD and HYPE/BTC

HYPE/USD

HYPEUSD broke out of its downtrend in late April and is currently consolidating under the $21.5 resistance. Price is hovering around $21, forming a base just below the marked supply zone. The move comes after a strong bounce from April lows.

Immediate support sits at $18.57, with stronger support at $16 and a key demand zone between $12.6 and $14.6. This grey box was the reversal area during HYPE's brief dip to $9.3 earlier in April, a deviation that was quickly reclaimed, reinforcing the zone's importance.

Since then, HYPE has formed two bullish structure shifts on the daily chart, showing continued strength. There hasn't been a clean retest of the breakout trendline yet, so any pullback toward $16 or the demand zone could offer attractive entries.

On the upside, $21.5 is the first barrier. If broken, HYPE could target the broader supply zone from $24.2 to $25.1.

HYPE/BTC

HYPE/BTC shifted structure bullish in mid-April, breaking the orange trendline to the upside and marking its first significant structural change on the daily timeframe. Price took support from the grey box zone before shifting structure, a prior consolidation area from December 2024, acting as a major demand zone this time around.

The pair initially took resistance at level 2 after the breakout, retraced back to level 1, and then bounced cleanly from there. This bounce led to a reclaim of level 2, where it's now consolidating above. This base-building above prior resistance is typically a bullish sign, hinting at strength.

If the current structure holds, HYPE/BTC may now push toward the next resistance at level 3. The consolidation phase just above level 2 suggests that buyers are accumulating and preparing for another leg higher if Bitcoin stays steady.

As of now, the pair has completed one confirmed bullish shift and may be on the verge of another. A breakdown below level 2 would weaken the short-term outlook, but the structure remains intact unless level 1 is lost.

3. FARTCOIN

It's not a joke anymore. Born out of AI, laced with absurdist humour, and deployed on Solana, Fartcoin has managed to push beyond meme status, at least for now.

You can laugh at the name, but you can't ignore the chart. Before Bitcoin bounced, before Solana reclaimed strength, before Ethereum even showed signs of life, Fartcoin had already taken off.

While the broader market hit its local bottom in early April, Fartcoin bottomed nearly a month earlier, on March 10th, at approximately $0.199. From there, it ran hard, climbing over 550% to hit $1.28 by May 1st. It wasn't just early, but it was very loud as well.

That early strength also brought traction. Holder count has been rising, and Fartcoin's presence is now cemented with one of the biggest validations it could get: a Hyperliquid spot listing ticker. Outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, barely any coins, let alone memes, have secured a native spot listing on the platform. Fartcoin did it first, ahead of the curve.

All of this while Solana continues to outperform Ethereum, and Fartcoin leads as Solana's most prominent meme breakout. If meme coin rotation flows toward SOL-led narratives in the coming months, Fartcoin already has the head start.

It didn't wait for the market to flip bullish; it front-ran the bounce and rode it 550% up. When the air gets thin at the top, Fartcoin's already used to floating.

As they all say, hot air rises…

The numbers behind the run

• Local Bottom: $0.199 on March 10th, 2025

• Local Top: $1.28 on May 1st, 2025

• Bounce: +550% in under two months

• Market Cap (as of May 2nd): ~$1.19 billion

• 24H Volume: ~$207 million

• Holders: 148,000+

• Socials: 75K+ followers on X, top meme engagement on Solana

Technical analysis: FART/USD and FART/BTC

FART/USD

Fartcoin bottomed earlier than the broader market in early March around $0.198 and went on to rally nearly 540% in just 50 days, topping out at $1.28. This made it one of the first memecoins to not just recover, but lead.

The rally was supported by an uptrend that held from early April to early May, which has now broken. Fartcoin is currently retesting previous structure support at $0.98, a key level to watch. Below that, supports lie at $0.78-0.71, and deeper at $0.641 if momentum weakens further.

On the upside, the broken trendline now acts as immediate resistance. Reclaiming it could reestablish bullish structure. Above that, resistance zones are seen at $1.3 and $1.61, with the latter marking a high-conviction breakout level.

FART/BTC

FART/BTC saw a powerful 400% outperformance vs. Bitcoin over 50 days, but momentum has cooled since early May. The pair lost the uptrend and has broken below Level 3, now heading toward the grey box demand zone, a key area sitting between Levels 2 and 3 on the chart.

If the grey zone fails to hold, a retest of Level 2 becomes likely. On the flip side, reclaiming Level 3 could trigger a range-bound phase between Levels 3 and 4, with a chance to resume upside if strength returns.

What the bounce tells us

The recent bounce across crypto was sharper and perhaps more revealing than most expected. Bitcoin rallied 30%, the total crypto market cap added over $700 billion in just a few weeks, and Solana did a wild 65% between April 7th and April 25th before cooling slightly. But what made this bounce stand out wasn't just the velocity; it was where that capital flowed.

This wasn't a uniform, ETF-driven move. It was asymmetric, led by coins that, until recently, weren't even on most people's radar. We saw SUI, a Layer 1 that had been relatively quiet, suddenly attract institutional attention through ETF filings and strategic BTC integrations. We saw Hyperliquid, a DEX running its own chain, break out as traders rotated into perp-first ecosystems with real traction. And we saw Fartcoin, a Solana meme coin launched by an AI, rip higher with a 500%+ rally, dragging retail back.

This tells us a lot about where the market is mentally. First, meme coin speculation isn't dead. It just needed a spark. Second, traders are done waiting for stale narratives to play out. They're hunting for new execution, new products, new catalysts. Platforms that are shipping, Hyperliquid's fee program, and SUI's BTC integration are finally getting rewarded. And third, institutions are paying attention again, not just to Bitcoin, but to alt L1s with clean narratives and capital pathways.

The bounce could be a narrative reshuffle. This is a market that's moving fast, choosing winners early, and repricing the next cycle's themes before most even realize the last one's over.

T’MG’s take

When the market bounces, it doesn't just reward strength, but also reveals it. This rebound was a signal. In choppy markets, money flows back in where there's energy, narrative, and structure. Coins that are quietly building strength, holding range lows, or shifting back into bullish market structure, those are the ones to watch.

Our team is constantly tracking these shifts. Whether it's a meme coin showing relative strength, a Layer 1 reclaiming momentum, or a new narrative surfacing, we're on it. The job now is not to chase every pump, but to understand which moves are real, which have follow-through, and which are simply echoing liquidity rotations.

We'll continue to surface those insights, coin by coin, narrative by narrative, as the market unfolds. We have identified 3 assets that are showing relative strength. If the market were to correct as we expect, these assets are the ones to start DCAing if you plan to hold for the next 3, 6, or 9 months.

Everyone's racing to tokenise real-world assets, but most are building pieces of the puzzle. This project is building the whole damn box. Could it be the next big thing? Let's dive in…

Tokenisation is the next logical step for crypto to go mainstream. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and JPMorgan are all in. Protocols like Centrifuge, Ondo, and Maker have already embedded RWAs into their models. And capital is flowing. The RWA sector has crossed $10 billion in TVL, and top forecasts predict a trillion-dollar market by the end of the decade.

But for all the hype, most of crypto's RWA efforts are fragmented, isolated token issuers, patchwork data bridges, and compliance nightmares. That's where Plume enters the story.

Plume is an L1 chain purpose-built for RWAs. From token issuance and on-chain data feeds to gasless smart wallets and modular compliance rails, Plume aims to make RWAs as seamless as ERC-20s, composable, programmable, and deeply integrated into crypto-native flows like lending, staking, and yield generation.

Plume's traction is real, too. It has over 180 projects already live or building, backed by TradFi giants like Apollo and Brevan Howard, and $ 4 B+ in tokenised assets committed.

Still, the question remains: can Plume scale and survive in a space where regulatory clarity is slow, competition is heating up, and new L1s often fail to retain attention post-launch? That's what this report explores.

We'll break down Plume's architecture, ecosystem, tokenomics, funding, and positioning in the RWA market. We'll also highlight the risks, unanswered questions, and what's next for the $PLUME token.

So let's dive in!

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

What is Plume Network?

In the race to bring real-world assets on-chain, Plume stands out by building the entire infrastructure layer from the ground up. At the core, Plume is a purpose-built Layer-1 blockchain tailored for Real-World Asset Finance (RWAfi), a concept that doesn't just tokenise assets like real estate or treasuries, but makes them usable in crypto-native ways: staking, lending, farming, and even derivatives. This is quite an interesting innovation.

Plume is launched with a vision to bridge traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralised finance (DeFi) and is solving for composability, compliance, and scale. With over 180 projects already integrated, including use cases ranging from music royalties and private credit to pre-IPO funds and carbon credits, Plume is evolving into a full-fledged RWA hub.

Its architecture is backed by some heavy hitters. The network is EVM-compatible, powered by Arbitrum Nitro, and equipped with native account abstraction, gasless transactions, and real-time data oracles through its Nexus module. Tools like Plume Arc, the protocol's tokenisation engine, drastically lower onboarding time for asset issuers, making it easier for institutions and developers to bring RWAs on-chain without navigating the regulatory mess alone.

$PLUME, the network's native token, serves multiple roles: gas, governance, staking, liquidity provisioning, and validator incentives. It launched in January 2025, now trades on major exchanges and is supported by a who's who of backers, Apollo Global, Haun Ventures, Brevan Howard, Galaxy Digital, and more. Plume has $ 30 M+ in funding, $ 4 B+ in tokenised assets, and a testnet that supported 3.75 million users and 265 million transactions, these numbers are big boy numbers.

But the competition is heating up. Rivals like Centrifuge, Ondo, and TradFi players like BlackRock are entering the field., Plume's ability to stay agile, deliver real-world integrations, and scale demand will define whether it becomes foundational infrastructure or just another RWA narrative.

RWA market context

Real-world assets are fast becoming crypto's most credible bridge to institutional capital. The sector has seen a sharp uptick in traction: as of March 2025, the total value locked (TVL) in RWA protocols crossed $10 billion for the first time, with top platforms like BlackRock's BUIDL, Franklin Templeton, Ondo, and Centrifuge leading the charge.

This momentum isn't retail-driven. It's institutions stepping in. BlackRock tokenised over $1 billion in treasuries, JPMorgan launched programmable funds, and Apollo, managing over $700 billion in TradFi assets, invested directly into emerging on-chain platforms like Plume. In many ways, 2024 was about experimentation; 2025 is about execution.

What's driving this shift is a convergence of readiness. The infrastructure is maturing. Regulations are evolving. And the need for programmable, transparent, and global capital markets is becoming harder to ignore. In the U.S., stablecoin frameworks are gaining bipartisan support. In Asia, Singapore and Japan are racing ahead with tokenization sandboxes and regulatory pilots. Europe's MiCA is already laying the groundwork.

For Plume, the timing couldn't be more aligned. With RWAfi, a vision that treats RWAs as an active component in crypto-native finance, Plume is riding a new narrative arc. It's not just about putting real estate or bonds on-chain. It's about using those assets in lending, yield farming, staking, and derivatives, opening up entirely new liquidity layers and risk markets.

As TradFi capital enters and infrastructure tightens, RWA protocols that can balance compliance with crypto-native utilities stand to lead. And in that race, Plume's full-stack approach puts it in a strong early position.

Plume's positioning

If the first wave of RWA protocols was about putting traditional assets on-chain, the next wave, what Plume calls RWAfi, is about making those assets programmable, liquid, and usable in the crypto economy.

Plume's core thesis is simple: tokenising RWAs is only half the job. The real unlock comes when those tokenised assets can be used natively in DeFi, as collateral, for yield farming, for structured products, even in derivatives. This goes beyond the "TradFi on-chain" model that replicates traditional capital markets infrastructure. Instead, Plume is building the foundation for an entirely new type of capital market, one that originates, prices, and trades real-world assets through a crypto-native lens.

Unlike competitors that rely on Ethereum or build on Layer 2s, Plume integrates core RWA infrastructure (like KYC, AML, cap table management, and custodianship) directly at the protocol level. This modular approach allows applications to plug in and go, with no need to rebuild backend rails or navigate compliance complexity from scratch.

The platform's architectural stack, Plume Arc (tokenisation engine), Smart Wallets with native account abstraction, and Nexus (real-world data integration), reflects this thesis. It's about building a composable ecosystem where tokenized real estate, carbon credits, royalties, and commodities can all interact with lending pools, prediction markets, and collateralized trading strategies.

In short: Rather than competing to be the best tokenisation platform, Plume is competing to be the best infrastructure layer for programmable real-world finance.

Architecture & infrastructure

Plume's architecture is purpose-built for real-world asset finance (RWAfi), with a modular stack that addresses the full lifecycle of RWA onboarding, compliance, and DeFi composability. Rather than Plume embeds critical infrastructure at the protocol level instead of retrofitting on top of general-purpose blockchains, allowing for scale, efficiency, and regulatory alignment.

Arc - The tokenisation engine

Arc is Plume's full-stack framework for onboarding real-world assets. It connects issuers with a full suite of service providers, including custodians, legal entities, KYC/AML platforms, and registrars. Whether it's real estate, music royalties, carbon credits, or private credit, Arc allows for plug-and-play tokenization via the ERC-3643 standard. Assets issued through Arc have been compliant from day one and are ready to be composed within DeFi applications.

Smart wallets - Native account abstraction

Every user account on Plume is a programmable smart wallet by default. This native account abstraction removes the need for separate smart contracts and allows complex interactions like gasless transactions, collateral management, staking, and wallet upgrades. Fully audited by Trail of Bits, Plume's wallet architecture is tailored to simplify the RWAfi experience while enhancing security and UX.

Nexus - The data highway

Nexus serves as the real-world data oracle for the Plume ecosystem, bringing off-chain inputs (e.g., commodity prices, macroeconomic indicators, real estate appraisals) on-chain via secure TLSNotary proofs. This data layer unlocks use cases like data-driven lending, event-based derivatives, and tokenized prediction markets. Nexus supports over 1,000 verified data feeds, making Plume a high-fidelity platform for financial data.

Compliance engine

Embedded KYC/AML protocols are part of the Plume base layer, streamlining onboarding for institutions and enabling compliant asset issuance and trading. The protocol supports modular compliance logic, allowing projects to adapt to jurisdictional requirements while maintaining composability.

Built on Arbitrum Nitro

Plume leverages Arbitrum Nitro as its foundation, offering Ethereum compatibility with the scalability and speed of a rollup framework. This allows seamless interoperability with the Arbitrum Orbit ecosystem while maintaining low transaction costs and EVM tooling support.

$PLUME Tokenomics

As the native asset of the Plume Network, $PLUME plays a critical role in securing the chain, powering transactions, and incentivising ecosystem participation. Its design reflects Plume's long-term thesis: align value accrual with protocol usage, governance, and liquidity growth across the RWAfi ecosystem.

Token Utility

$PLUME serves as the backbone of the network through five primary functions:

• Gas Fees: All on-chain activity, RWA tokenisation, trading, data queries, and wallet actions use $PLUME as payment.

• Governance: Token holders can propose and vote on protocol upgrades, economic parameters, and grants through on-chain governance.

• Staking & Delegation: Validators and delegators stake $PLUME to secure the Proof-of-Stake network and earn rewards.

• Ecosystem Incentives: $PLUME is used to bootstrap adoption via grants, airdrops, validator rewards, and developer funding.

• Collateral & Liquidity: Within DeFi protocols on Plume, $PLUME can be used for liquidity provisioning and as collateral.

Allocation breakdown

The total supply of $PLUME is fixed at 10 billion tokens, with a long-term release schedule.

• Community, Ecosystem, and Foundation: 59%Includes grants, validator rewards, liquidity provisioning, marketing, and airdrops.

• Early Backers: 21%Strategic investors and partners, fully locked at TGE with linear vesting.

• Core Contributors: 20% of engineers and builders of the protocol were also locked and released gradually.

Unlock schedule & next cliff

As of April 2025:

• Circulating Supply: ~2 billion (20% of total supply).

• Next Unlock Event: April 21, 2025108.34 million $PLUME (~$16.8M at current price) will be released, comprising 1.08% of total supply.

Unlocks are staggered monthly and designed to avoid front-loaded dilution, with major cliffs distributed over a multi-year vesting schedule.

Price & market cap performance

• Price (April 16, 2025): $0.1538

• Market Cap: ~$307.67M

• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): ~$1.54B

• All-Time High (ATH): $0.247 (March 19, 2025)

• Performance: Currently down ~38% from ATH but up 82.7% from ATL.

Despite recent underperformance relative to the broader market, sentiment on social platforms remains bullish due to growing ecosystem traction and Apollo's investment.

Take on dilution risk

With 80% of the token supply still locked, the primary concern is dilution from future unlocks. However, this is partially offset by:

• Utility demand from staking, fees, and DeFi participation.

• Token emissions are being distributed into active ecosystem growth (e.g., grants, rewards).

• Institutional backing and roadmap clarity are attracting long-term holders over short-term speculators.

Still, investors should monitor unlock schedules closely, especially around major cliffs and assess demand-side traction to know whether inflationary pressure will be absorbed effectively by the market.

Ecosystem & projects

One of Plume's most defining strengths is its traction. In less than a year since its launch, the network has grown into one of the largest and fastest-moving ecosystems in the RWA space, with over 180+ protocols, 18 million+ wallet addresses, and 280 million transactions recorded. This is some real deployment.

Key projects live on Plume

A number of flagship protocols across diverse sectors have launched or are building on Plume:

• Credbull: private credit marketplace offering fixed-yield credit opportunities. Its "LiquidStone" fund launched with $100M capacity and has since scaled up to $500M, offering yields up to 15% APY for 90-day lock-ups.

• DigiFT: A regulated on-chain exchange licensed by Singapore's MAS, connecting tokenized RWAs like UBS's uMINT fund to institutional investors.

• Music Protocol: Brings music royalties on-chain by tokenising intellectual property. Through $mbUSD bonds backed by streaming revenues, artists can monetize IP while investors earn income from royalties.

• Jarsy: Offers DeFi access to U.S. ETFs and private funds starting at $10. Retail-first RWA investing, abstracted through Plume's Smart Wallets.

Ecosystem metrics

Plume's testnet and mainnet metrics reflect genuine usage, especially notable given the nascency of the RWA vertical:

Backers, funding & strategic momentum

While many RWA protocols are still trying to find product-market fit, Plume has already secured significant backing from top-tier venture and institutional players, both crypto-native and TradFi. This level of support speaks to both its design and its timing in a sector that's finally getting serious attention.

Funding snapshot:

• Total Raised: Over $30 million

  • Seed Round (May 2024): $10M led by Haun Ventures, with participation from Galaxy Ventures, Superscrypt, and A Capital.

  • Series A (Dec 2024): $20M led by Brevan Howard Digital, joined by Lightspeed Faction, Hashkey, and Nomura's Laser Digital.

  • Apollo Global (April 2025): Seven-figure strategic investment from one of the world's largest asset managers ($ 700 B+ AUM), signalling deep institutional conviction.

These rounds brought credibility, long-term alignment, and integration potential with institutional-grade products.

Strategic partners

Plume has gone beyond DeFi-native integrations by forging connections with players across TradFi, tokenization, and on-chain infrastructure:

• Rome Protocol: Facilitates seamless asset transfers across Ethereum, Solana, and Plume.

• Ondo Finance: Collaborates on tokenized treasuries and yield-bearing RWA strategies.

• DigiFT: Licensed by MAS Singapore, offering regulated access to tokenized securities (like UBS's uMINT fund).

• Superstate: Working on RWA-based investment fund structures and compliant DeFi rails.

Latest developments: Strategic tailwinds

• Apollo Investment (April 2025): A turning point for Plume's institutional optics. It puts Plume on the radar of major TradFi allocators.

• Grayscale Watchlist Inclusion (Q2 2025): Plume was officially added to Grayscale's "Assets Under Consideration" list, potentially laying the groundwork for future inclusion in investment products like trust offerings or ETF vehicles.

Technical analysis

Plume is currently retracing and consolidating following its breakout in mid/late March 2025. On the 12-hour timeframe, the token managed to print a new higher high shortly after launch, and has since retraced to retest both the breakout diagonal trendline and two key demand zones.

The first 12h demand zone is between $0.156 and $0.144, and Plume is currently attempting to form a base above this level. This zone aligns with the breakout structure and has seen multiple taps over the past few days. On April 7th, Plume dipped into the second demand zone, between $0.132 and $0.122, and printed a low of $0.1306, which effectively tested the diagonal breakout level before bouncing back into the upper zone. This behaviour suggests active buyers in both zones, though conviction remains moderate.

If the current consolidation above $0.144 holds and broader market sentiment turns constructive, we're eyeing $0.185 as the first upside target in the short-to-medium term. Should $0.185 be reclaimed convincingly, the next leg up would target $0.231, though this would require stronger confirmation from both Plume and the wider market.

On the downside, if both current demand zones fail to hold, the next major support lies at $0.106, the base structure formed between January and March 2025. This would represent a full retrace to Plume's origin range and indicate a breakdown in market structure.

For now, the technicals suggest a range-bound setup with a neutral/bullish bias if demand zones continue to absorb sell pressure. All trades here depend on continuation or breakdown confirmations, especially from the wider market context.

Risks, challenges & competitive landscape

Despite Plume's strong architecture, funding, and narrative fit, the RWAfi sector remains early, fragmented, and full of moving parts. Plume is well-positioned, but it's far from risk-free. This section outlines the key headwinds and how they stack up against other players in the race.

Regulatory uncertainty

While Plume is built with compliance in mind, embedding KYC/AML flows and working with regulated partners like DigiFT, the global regulatory environment is still evolving. Jurisdictions are inconsistent, and regulatory treatment of tokenized securities or fractional ownership models could shift, especially in the U.S. and EU. Navigating this minefield will require constant legal adaptation.

Token overhang and dilution

Plume's tokenomics are community-focused, but 80% of the supply is still locked. With over 10 billion total tokens and only 2 billion in circulation, the unlock schedule could exert sell pressure over time if not managed carefully. This is a common issue for L1 protocols, especially when token utility (governance, staking, gas) isn't directly tied to demand from institutional flows yet.

Early-network technical risk

As a new Layer 1, Plume must prove it can scale securely. Smart wallet logic, tokenization flows, and data integrations (e.g., Nexus) must all function reliably across use cases like lending, derivatives, and secondary trading. Any critical failure, security breach, faulty oracle data, or regulatory misstep could derail momentum.

Competition is heating up

Plume is not alone in chasing the tokenization opportunity. Heavyweights like:

• Securitize (SEC-registered platform focused on compliant asset tokenization),

• Ondo Finance (tokenizing treasuries and yield-bearing RWAs)

• Superstate, Maple, Goldfinch, and now even BlackRock and Franklin Templeton

…are all developing RWA strategies. Some are focused on compliance rails. Others aim to onboard institutions. Plume's edge is its modular, composable design and crypto-native DeFi integrations, but sustaining differentiation will be key.

TMG’s take

Everyone's racing to bring real-world assets on-chain, but most are building fragmented tools and protocols. Plume is taking a full-stack swing, offering everything from tokenisation engines to smart wallets to compliance rails. The ambition is massive, and they're not shy about it.

They're not alone in this space, but their traction is undeniable. Their bet on "RWAfi"-making tokenised assets usable across lending, derivatives, and speculation- sets them apart from competitors still focused on just wrapping assets and parking them.

That said, it's early days. The mainnet isn't live yet. What we've seen so far is testnet numbers, speculative capital, and bold promises. Risks like dilution and regulatory whiplash loom large. Partnerships are generating buzz, but execution is what will make or break this.

Here's where we stand: our team sees huge potential in Plume. Some of us are genuinely excited and would love to invest when the timing feels right or when the price hits the levels we've outlined in our technical analysis section. The "RWAfi" thesis is compelling, and the long-term narrative around real-world assets is one we're bullish on. But for now, we're holding off on long-term bets until the network proves itself.

For traders, the short- to medium-term opportunities are clear- check our key levels in the analysis above. For the long haul, we're keeping Plume high on our watchlist, and we're ready to move when risk-on sentiment returns in the coming weeks or months. Don't get caught off guard. Stay tuned to our market updates and research to be prepared.

Peace!

Since we expect the market to continue to be choppy in the coming months, stablecoins remain one of the most effective ways to stay positioned without taking on unnecessary risk. In 2024 , we explored how Ethereal, Level, and Reservoir provided low-risk entry points into high-upside airdrop ecosystems. For those who acted early, the benefits are already beginning to materialise.

In this second edition, we're turning our attention to three additional opportunities: Huma, OpenEden, and Noble. Each brings a unique angle to the stablecoin thesis-whether through real-world credit, tokenized treasury exposure, or native asset issuance within the Cosmos ecosystem. What they share is a common emphasis on capital efficiency, security, and underfarmed airdrop potential.

This guide breaks down how we're approaching each protocol, why we think they matter, and what to watch for as incentives continue to evolve.

Let's dive in…

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Huma Finance (Solana)

Huma Finance is a PayFi protocol bridging real-world lending to DeFi. It enables borrowers to access credit based on future income, such as payroll or invoices-while connecting stablecoins to tangible economic activity.

Backed by Distributed Global and ParaFi Capital, and valued at $38 million, Huma has processed over $4 billion in transaction volume since inception - demonstrating strong traction in the real-world asset (RWA) space. Following the launch of its permissionless deployment on Solana in April 2025, the platform is now open to all users. As of mid-April, Huma boasts over 30,000 depositors and $90 million in active liquidity-respectable numbers, but still modest when compared to its backing, valuation, and long-term ambitions.

Classic Mode participants currently earn a 10.5% APY, offering a rare combination of stable yield and structured airdrop exposure. For airdrop farmers, the strategy is straightforward: deposit stablecoins, accumulate Feathers (non-transferable loyalty points), and position early for what could be one of Solana's largest RWA-token distributions to date.

Strategy: Classic vs. Maxi Mode

When you deposit into Huma, you'll choose between:

• Classic Mode (PST): Earns real APY (10.5%) + Feathers

• Maxi Mode (mPST): No yield, but earns significantly more Feathers

Here's how the reward multipliers break down:

Your choice comes down to capital needs and conviction.

• Classic Mode is ideal if you want consistent APY while still farming rewards.

• Maxi Mode is optimal if your sole focus is maximizing Feather accumulation for a potential airdrop.

You can switch between modes at any time without fees. Lockup status carries over when switching.

How to Farm the Huma Airdrop (Solana)

• Step 1: Get USDC on Solana: Use a wallet like Phantom and fund it with USDC.

• Step 2: Visit Huma: Go to Huma Finance and connect your wallet.

• Step 3: Choose a Mode: Pick between Classic (PST) or Maxi (mPST):

• Classic = yield + points

• Maxi = no yield, maximum points

• Step 4: (Optional) Lock Your Position: Locking boosts your Feather multiplier significantly:

• No lock: 1x (Classic) or 5x (Maxi)

• 3-month: 3x (Classic) or 15x (Maxi)

• 6-month: 5x (Classic) or 25x (Maxi)

• Step 5: Deposit USDC: Approve the transaction. You'll receive either PST or mPST based on your selected mode.

• Step 6: Monitor Rewards: Feathers accumulate automatically and are tied to your wallet. They cannot be traded or transferred. If you exit via Jupiter, any lockup-based multipliers will be forfeited.

Exiting Your Position

If you've selected a no-lock position-or your lockup period has ended-you can exit through one of the following methods:

• Direct redemption via the Huma dApp:

  • Navigate to the Portfolio tab

  • Select your position

  • Request redemption back into USDC

  • Redemptions are processed within 1-7 days

• Instant exit via Jupiter:

  • In the Portfolio tab, switch your position from Maxi Mode back to Classic Mode

  • Once converted to PST, head to Jupiter Aggregator

  • Swap PST → USDC instantly for real-time liquidity

⚠️ Note: Exiting via Jupiter cancels any active lockups and forfeits associated Feather multipliers. Only consider this if you're in no-lock mode or your lock has expired.

Recommendation

Given the current reward structure and the likely timeline for a token launch, our strategy is to enter with a 6-month lock-in Maxi Mode. This earns a 25x Feather multiplier, making it one of the most capital-efficient stablecoin airdrop farms live today-especially if the airdrop doesn't occur until late Q3 or beyond.

That said, this strategy is best suited for those who don't need access to the capital during the lock period. If liquidity is a priority, consider using a shorter lock or staying flexible in Classic Mode.

As more integrations come online-such as Kamino or Meteora supporting PST/mPST as collateral-rotating into Classic Mode or looping via money markets may unlock additional upside through real yield or leveraged Feather compounding.

Here is how it's done

OpenEden and Upshift (via cUSDO)

OpenEden brings real-world yield into DeFi by tokenising U.S. Treasury bills into on-chain assets. Its stablecoin, cUSDO, is fully backed by short-duration sovereign debt, enabling users to earn low-risk, dollar-denominated yield on-chain. With over $120 million in TVL and fewer than 15,000 users, OpenEden remains significantly underfarmed-making it a prime candidate for stablecoin-based airdrop strategies.

The platform's "Bills" points system tracks cUSDO usage across protocols like Pendle, Euler, Morpho, Spectra, and Upshift-each offering different multipliers and reward structures. Among them, Upshift stands out not only for its efficiency and dual rewards, but also for being backed by top-tier firms including Dragonfly, Hack VC, Robot Ventures, and 6MV, with additional institutional support from August Digital. Meanwhile, OpenEden itself boasts ecosystem participation or partnership signals from giants like BlackRock, BitGo, Galaxy, Ripple, Arbitrum, and BNP Paribas-underscoring the credibility of the RWA thesis it's built on.

Farming Strategy: OpenEden + Upshift

The most straightforward route is through Upshift's Strategic Vault, which offers a 3.0x Bills multiplier and an estimated 7.2% APY. This vault also earns Upshift Points, giving you dual exposure to both ecosystems ahead of potential token launches.

Like many other protocols we've covered, there are a number of different options when it comes to parking our liquidity-each with its own balance of yield, risk, and airdrop potential:

Here's a breakdown of the top strategies based on current data:

How to Farm the OpenEden + Upshift Airdrop

• Step 1: Acquire cUSDO (contract address 0xaD55aebc9b8c03FC43cd9f62260391c13c23e7c0)

Visit OpenEden or swap into it through DEXs like ParaSwap, Balancer, or Curve. Use a route aggregator like DeFiLlama or Jumper to find the best rate.

• Step 2: Choose a Strategy

For most users, Upshift's Strategic Vault is the best balance of reward and simplicity. For higher-risk plays, Pendle may offer more Bills-but they require more monitoring and may involve capital risk.

• Step 3: Track Rewards

View your Bills (OpenEden points) on OpenEden's dashboard. Upshift Points can be tracked via the Points tab in the Upshift app-no claiming is required, as rewards are credited automatically.

• Step 4: Exit Anytime

All strategies are fully stablecoin-based and can be exited without lockups via standard LP withdrawal or token swap.

Recommendation

For most stablecoin farmers, the Upshift Strategic Vault is the cleanest strategy available right now. It offers:

• A solid 7.2% APY

• 3.0x Bills from OpenEden

• Upshift Points for a second potential airdrop

• Full flexibility with zero lockups

It's ideal for users who want to stay fully stable, preserve capital, and quietly build exposure while the broader market remains directionless. Strategies like Pendle may deliver outsized returns, but only for users who are comfortable tracking expiry schedules and dealing with decaying positions.

Noble

Noble is a Cosmos-native blockchain purpose-built for secure, compliant asset issuance across the interchain. Through its integration with the M^0 Protocol, Noble enables the creation of USDN (Noble Dollar)-a stablecoin fully backed by U.S. Treasury Bills that accrues yield automatically on-chain.

Backed by Paradigm, Wintermute, Polychain, and Circle Ventures, Noble raised $15 million in its Series A (Nov 2024) and has already onboarded top-tier stablecoin issuers like Circle and Ondo Finance. Despite this institutional support, participation remains light: as of now, only 9,933 users have deposited into the Noble Points Vault, with TVL hovering around $45 million-a clear signal that the protocol is still significantly underfarmed relative to its potential.

How to Farm Noble Points: Step-by-Step Guide

• Step 1: Set Up a Cosmos-Compatible Wallet

To interact with Noble, you'll need a wallet that supports Cosmos chains.We recommend using Keplr Wallet.

• Step 2: Bridge USDC to Noble

Use the official bridge to transfer USDC from Ethereum, Solana, or another supported chain into the Noble network (use the fast USDC option):express.noble.xyz

⚠️ Note: Gas fees on the Noble chain are paid in USDC. Be sure to bridge a few extra dollars beyond what you plan to farm with.

• Step 3: Swap USDC for USDN

Once bridged, use the official DEX to convert USDC into USDN:dollar.noble.xyz

• Step 4: Choose a Farming Vault

Once you hold USDN, you can choose between two farming paths depending on your strategy:

Time-sensitive: Unfortunately, there are approximately 73 days remaining in the current Noble Points program window. If starting today, the maximum multiplier attainable is 1.25x, short of the full 1.75x reserved for a 120-day hold.

Vaults are managed at: points.noble.xyz

⚠️ Note: Be sure to deposit the full amount you plan to farm with, upfront-adding additional funds later will reset your multiplier.

Whether you prefer to prioritize yield or accumulate points toward a potential airdrop depends on your individual goals and liquidity needs. Both vaults offer stablecoin-native strategies with no exposure to token volatility.

Here is how it's done

TMG’s take

The macro picture remains uncertain, with rate cuts in limbo and liquidity still fragmented-signaling a clear lack of broader risk appetite. In this environment, a defensive strategy still remains key: farm with stablecoins to minimise downside while accumulating airdrop rewards that can be rotated back into USDC for future opportunities.

Protocols like Huma, OpenEden, and Noble act as active tools to extract value from stablecoins - blending airdrop potential with steady yield to keep us engaged without taking on unnecessary volatility. Collectively, they help us build a robust war chest, positioning us to act decisively when the next major trend emerges.

We'll be watching closely as summer unfolds. If momentum returns, we pivot.

Until then, we farm, accumulate, and prepare rush, just precision.

Stay early. Stay liquid.

The cryptocurrency market is rife with manipulated token rallies designed to trap unwary traders and investors. Our trading analysts have spent months identifying these patterns and developing strategies to navigate this volatile landscape. In this report, we'll reveal how to spot and potentially profit from these manipulated moves while avoiding costly mistakes. Let's dive in.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Spotting the signs of market manipulation

Before diving into what market manipulation looks like, we first want to talk about what it really is and the thought process behind it. Market manipulation in crypto involves deliberate actions to distort a token's price or volume, creating a false perception of demand or value to deceive traders and investors. Typically skewed to the upside, it often sees market makers corner a significant portion of a token's supply (a task made easy with low-float coins). With their grip tightened, they deploy minimal buying power to ignite massive price surges, crafting the illusion of organic momentum.

This slick move pays off in multiple ways. If the market maker is aligned with the token's insiders, it paves the way for those insiders to dump their holdings at inflated prices. It also entices traders to "go long," jumping aboard what looks like an unstoppable pump. Most crucially, the soaring price and volume create the perfect smokescreen for market makers to offload their substantial holdings at a hefty profit, often leaving latecomers stuck when the inevitable crash lands.

So now that we have a little more context as to why and how these things happen, let's take a peak at what the charts tell us about how these things tend to work. For this part, we are going to go through 5 super recent examples.

The first example we want to look at is AERGO. As we can see from the chart below it went up for over a week straight just to drop 80% and retrace the whole pump. That is market manipulation.

AERGO price chart demonstrating classic pump and dump pattern[/caption]

We can then take a look at KAITO as well. It had a huge 200% pump on launch but in the following month it not only retraced the entirety of the pump but also made new lows.

KAITO price chart showing initial 200% launch pump followed by complete collapse

Then we can also look to BERA, as we can see a very similar thing is happening here. The price gets steadily bought up and then, bang, the whole thing gets retraced and new lows are made.

BERA price action demonstrating artificial pump followed by sharp decline

These are just three examples of what market manipulation looks like in the crypto space these days, and now that you know what it looks like lets get into looking at how smart money can profit off these tokens and then how we've traded these tokens in the past.

How the pros cash in on these moves

The first way is from longing, and the easiest way to do this is by determining when a dead ALT or memecoins makes a HTF market structure shift. Next, we can assume a run up backed by manipulation.

And what better way to show this than by showing you a recent example of the memecoin ZEREBRO. As we can see from the chart below, we had that shift in market structure on the 22nd and within the same day price pumped 133%. And the day after it went up 90% more.

ZEREBRO chart showing dramatic price increase following market structure shift

Looking at this on the lower timeframe, we can also see the same thing but much clearer. We broke the daily level, retested the gap made from breaking the daily level and quickly expanded through the next daily swing highs.

Lower timeframe analysis of ZEREBRO showing breakout pattern and retest

Smart money looks to long these types of dead coins (carefully) once these big daily breakouts happen because coins like this that are low in market cap and easily manipulated can run after breakouts like this. They can either enter long as the break happens, on a fair value gap fill, or even a low time frame break and retest of an s&r zone.

The second way smart money profits from these manipulated coins is through shorting, and just like longing the easiest way to do this is also by breaks in market structure. To show you we will also display a recent example from the coin KAITO.

As we can see in this first chart, the price ran up holding a pretty clear uptrend line. But then, on the 3rd of March, we can see that we aggressively lost that up trend. Now as we learnt before, smart money could be long this coin up to when market structure breaks down, so that being said what's their next move here?

KAITO chart showing clear break of uptrend line signaling shorting opportunity

Well, after the gap and breakdown, they will now flip and look to enter short, this can be through entering on a fair value gap, or as we can see here a re-test of the support zone. And as we can see below just playing it simply like that (looking to short after a break of structure) smart money would have been able to capture the downwards move after the manipulation up was finished.

KAITO chart showing profitable short entry after support zone retest

Whether going long or short, it is really nice to see that smart money can make money from both sides of these trends and the good news is we are going to show you exactly how you can do this yourself. In fact, the community have hit shorts on the following tokens: OM, BERA, IP, CAKE

Staying safe in manipulated markets

Before we give you the sauce on how to make money off these coins, we first want to echo a bit of a warning. This warning is because with coins like this, the risk in trading them is higher because of how hard they pump and how quick they fall.

If you short too early without using proper risk management, and the pump keeps going you can lose a lot of your trading portfolio and vice versa. Therefore, we strongly recommend not risking more than 1% of your trading capital on each trade and to always follow what our analysts are saying.

Analysts and traders in our community have experience trading these manipulated assets, and even if they are wrong or you personally get a trade wrong, you will only lose a very small amount and will have enough bullets in the chamber to try again.

Lastly, remember that markets can remain irrational longer than most participants can stay solvent so managing your risk is the backbone of making these strategies work.

Now that you are a bit more updated with the risks, let's get into the gold, how you can make money off these manipulated assets.

Your playbook to profit from manipulated tokens

As we mentioned earlier, smart money typically profits from longs and shorts precursored by shifts in market structure. With that in mind then we should then in theory try and replicate those strategies into our own playbooks so that we can also profit the same way.

That being said, the way we want to show you how to do this will be through using a couple new examples for each side, be it long or short. Through these examples we can walk you though some basic entry and exit techniques along with some pointers on targets and stop loss placement.

Lets start with the long side, for this we want to first look at IP. On this chart we want to bring our attention to the key swing highs noted on the chart and the market structure break that happened on the 17th of February.

After that market structure broke, we can then see how we turned the previous resistance zone into support and then it was off to the races towards those key highs.

IP chart showing resistance turning into support after market structure break

And if we were to position ourselves long in that old resistance zone and put stop below the last swing low we can see that we would have captured all the upside towards those levels we marked out.

Lets do another long example, this time looking at LAYER. As we can see from the chart something very similar happened! We had the clear downtrend broken, we had a breakout of the old resistance zone. Retested it as support, and then flew towards those key swing highs.

LAYER chart showing successful breakout pattern and resistance to support flip

Once again we used the key swing highs as targets and we placed our stop loss on the most recent swing low.

Let's do one more example just to send this home using BERA. As we can see from this chart, the exact same thing happened. We had the clear downtrend broken. We then see that the resistance gets flipped into support. After that price holds the support line perfectly then moves sharply towards the highs. Seeing the pattern yet?

BERA chart showing consistent pattern of downtrend break followed by sharp move higher

And once again we used a very simple stop loss placement of the recent swing low before we broke out! Next let's look at the opposite side, the short side.

First lets take a look at BERA, as we can see here the similar thing happened to the short side but in the reverse. We can see that there was a very clear run up but then we aggressively traded downwards. After trading downwards, we ended up testing the old support and then plummeting down towards the old lows.

BERA chart showing short setup after uptrend break and support level failure

As we can also see the same idea where we anchor our stop to the most recent swing high.

The next chart we will look at is KAITO. As seen on the chart, it's the same story again. We wait for structure to break, we plot out the old support that's been traded through and and then anchor the stop to the last high.

KAITO chart demonstrating consistent short setup pattern after support failure

So if we were to make this into a checklist of sorts here is what it would look like:

• Market structure broken?

• Resistance broken?

• Key swing highs to target?

• Risk managed?

If all these are a go on a new token or an alt/meme that has been down only for a while the likelihood is that a manipulation pump can be on the way.

We also want to quickly touch on which coins are most likely to become manipulated and luckily these fall into two categories: new tokens and old meme / alt coins. But it's a bit more deeper than that. When a token has no PMF or community, or supporting narrative, and it just trades up-only without any substantial pullbacks, that is not organic, and the token is also likely to be manipulated.

Lastly, new token launches listed on CEX's (like Binance and Bybit for example) are also prone to manipulations as the orderbooks are hidden making it easier for market makers to scam-pump the market.

TMG’s take

Unfortunately, market manipulation in new and existing token launches remains a persistent reality in the crypto space, but it's a double-edged sword that savvy traders can turn to their advantage. By mastering the art of spotting manipulation — through telltale signs like abrupt pumps in low-float altcoins, unnatural price surges without fundamentals, or rapid retracements after parabolic moves—you can position yourself to profit from both the ups and downs.

The key lies in a disciplined approach: leveraging market structure breaks, targeting key swing levels, and anchoring trades with tight risk management (never risking more than 1% of your capital per trade). Whether you're longing breakouts in manipulated memecoins or shorting overextended pumps, the checklist is clear—confirm structure shifts, validate support/resistance flips, and always protect your downside.

New tokens on CEXs and dormant alts with no product-market fit are prime candidates for these schemes, making them fertile ground for strategic trades. Approach with caution, stay sharp, and let the market makers' games fuel your gains.

Stay safe, trade smart, and never chase.

Good day TMG Fam,

The memecoin frenzy defined crypto in 2024, but PumpFun, which minted over 8.1 million tokens and generated a staggering $500 million in fees, eventually oversaturated and corrupted the market.

Insider manipulations, devastating scams (like TRUMP & LIBRA tokens), and bizarre livestream spectacles destroyed retail trust and collapsed daily launches from 10,000 tokens per day to nearly zero.

Yet, this collapse isn't the end—it's exactly the reset needed for memecoins to flourish again. Cult classics like DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE remain standing, poised to lead the next wave.

Stay ahead,
Team TMG

In crypto, just because an asset is down 70%, it doesn’t mean it can’t drop another 70%. There’s no such thing as a guaranteed bottom.

The key is knowing how to preserve capital, set up for the next leg, and avoid panic selling.

At TMG, we executed this playbook in real-time, making well-timed entries and exits across key assets, securing gains before the markets turned. Many who followed our strategy are now in profits and sitting in stables too, ready for the next move.

If you weren’t able to act, what matters now is focusing on recovery and making the best use of your capital - the market will present fresh opportunities, and our job is to guide you to them.

Assessing your current portfolio

Each asset in your portfolio has to be reevaluated in light of current market circumstances and fundamentals. Has the project’s technology, leadership, or competitive positioning changed? Does the price decline indicate more serious structural problems or is it an industry-wide cycle? Some assets rebound with the market, while others never do.

Beyond individual assets, portfolio allocation needs a reality check. If high-volatility plays are causing outsized damage, it might be time to rebalance. Rebalancing could mean shifting into more stable assets, diversifying into sectors with stronger resilience, or increasing cash positions to wait for better re-entry points.

Rebalancing and de-risking

Blindly holding and hoping is not a strategy when markets turn red.

If a position is bleeding and lacks strong recovery potential, cutting it on every potential lower high swing before it does further damage is the smart move.

At the same time, adding to stable, undervalued assets can provide long-term upside when the market turns.

However, even supposedly "safer" assets in the cryptocurrency space might get wrecked under extreme circumstances. This is why moving into stablecoins is often the most effective way to preserve capital.

Stablecoins offer a real hedge against market turmoil, as opposed to switching between unpredictable assets. Moving into stables doesn’t mean you’re out, it means you’re giving yourself a chance to fight another day.

Downturns offer chances to actively trade volatility in addition to simply holding stablecoins. When markets are moving sideways, range trading - buying support and selling resistance - can be successful. For those familiar with advanced strategies, shorting weak assets can be an additional strategy to profit from downturns or hedge against them.

Making stablecoins work

While you wait for improved market circumstances, you may generate passive income through yield farming, lending, and liquidity provision.

This is further enhanced by platforms like Hyperliquid where you can bag anywhere from 12%-16% APR, whose HL Vault allows traders to switch between actively trading and generating income with ease, maintaining capital growth without needless risk.

Emotional discipline and long-term focus

Emotion, not logic, is the reason for errors like panic selling at the bottom, refusing to reduce losses, or mindlessly holding onto assets with little chance of return.

A long-term mindset is essential. Crypto markets move in cycles, and while short-term price action can be brutal, history shows that strong assets recover.

One of the best ways to take emotion out of investing is to set predefined rules for buying and selling. Depending on your approach, you either cut it loose or double down if an asset falls to a specific level.

A structured approach to risk management includes predefined stop-losses, take-profits, and partial profit-taking strategies. Here’s a simple breakdown:

Set stop-losses (SL) to protect capital - Before entering a trade, define at what price level you're out - no second-guessing. Depending on volatility, a common approach is:

Swing trades: 10-20% SL below entry (adjust based on volatility and price levels).

High-conviction plays: Wider SL, but only if fundamentals remain intact.
Short-term trades: Tighter SLs (3-5%%) to limit downside risk.

Use multiple take-profit (TP) levels - Taking profits in steps prevents round-tripping gains. Instead of a single TP, structure it like this:

TP1 (25-30% of position) - At first major resistance level.

TP2 (40-50% of position) - At next key resistance or structural highs.

TP3 (Final exit or moonbag) - Leave a small portion running in case momentum continues.

Secure profits with partial exits - When price moves in your favour, don't just hold for the “perfect” exit - lock in profits step by step. Market conditions change fast, and waiting for a final TP can often result in watching gains disappear as trends reverse.

Re-enter the market with bias - Trading isn’t just about exits - it’s about getting back in at the right time. If your analysis is correct, the goal isn’t just to make one good trade but to ride the momentum while reducing risk along the way.

One of the most underrated yet powerful tools for improving execution is trade journaling. Tracking every trade - why you entered, why you exited, and what you could’ve done better - forces accountability and removes emotional bias over time.

Downturns don’t last, but the lessons and strategies built in tough markets define long-term success.

At TMG, we are big fans of SPX, but we recently exercised caution. It was one of the best-performing assets in recent months, backed by a supportive community. Yet, as we've learned time and again, even the strongest assets can face tough headwinds in this challenging market.

Lately, the signs have been pointing to elevated risks, and while SPX has shown resilience, no asset is immune to shifting trends. Let's take a step back, carefully assess the landscape, and ensure we're approaching this with clear eyes.

Are you managing risk effectively?

Many traders, especially those new to the barbell strategy, end up with too much risk on the high-volatility side of their portfolios. Instead of balancing between safer assets and higher-risk plays, they concentrate heavily on memes, often with minimal allocation to majors.

If more than 10%-20% of your portfolio is in a single meme coin, that's a sizable risk. With two years of the bull market already behind us, it's wise to think about preserving capital rather than doubling down without caution, especially when the risk-reward opportunity isn't as attractive as it once appeared.

In this report, we'll cover:

• Broader market concerns - Why liquidity fragmentation is capping upside potential.

• Actionable insights - What you can do to protect capital.

• TMG’s take - Our thoughts on SPX and where we stand.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for your own capital decisions.

Broader market context

Looking at the bigger picture, the market is grappling with dispersion and liquidity fragmentation- over 30 million unique coins, with thousands more launching daily (no thanks to Pump.fun). This saturation disperses liquidity and focus, ultimately limiting how high valuations can realistically go. The original framework for meme assets running to $10b+ was laid out based on previous cycle coins like SHIBA and DOGE, but something we didn't account for was the short attention span and large amount of new coin launches. We've now seen these patterns, where memes stall and fail to run past $5b:

• PNUT soared on election hype but stalled at $2.5B.

• POPCAT was once a powerhouse chart in crypto, yet it couldn't hold above $2B.

• Most coins struggle to surpass a $3B-$5B ceiling, then bleed out.

These examples show the risk of assuming any coin will keep defying gravity. One trader made $12M in $TRUMP, but greed led him to buy more on the way down, losing $9M of his original capital. This scenario isn't isolated- it's a reminder that taking profits is crucial in fast-moving markets.

Time and again, coins can drop 50% or more, then another 60%-80% after that. With BTC already 5x from its lows, expecting every alt to return to its peak might be more hope than strategy at this stage of the cycle.

Why this matters for SPX

Recently, SPX lost key support after hitting $1.60, dipping below $1 into a precarious range. We initially raised concern (early January) and publicly announced it could be a wise move to take profit near the highs. Since that call, SPX fell to $0.60 this week.

Data from on-chain sources shows capital rotation out of SPX:

• We have found 56 addresses sold 100,000+ SPX in the past week.

• 3 addresses unloaded more than 1 million tokens. (1, 2,3)

This mirrors patterns seen in WIF, PNUT, GOAT, GRIFFAIN, POPCAT, ai16z, and countless others. No matter how solid a community might be, a coin can still plunge 80% - 90%. Market conditions have the upper hand in many of these scenarios.

Even though SPX's meme power and community remain strong, the broader market conditions pose a bigger threat right now. Plus, the upside for SPX seems capped between $2b and $5b, similar to other meme-based assets, so the risk-to-reward might not be as favourable as it once was.

Furthermore, the price action of SPX is not positive as well. SPX convincingly broke down the $1 level, which opened doors for further downside towards $0.56 and $0.2. The $0.56 remains the key level of support that price will need to hold above of. A break below $0.56, would potentially see SPX revisit $0.20. A declining volume on the asset usually suggests price moving lower as well.

Given all this, how do we navigate wisely?

How to play this market: caution & capital preservation

We suggest focusing on capital preservation and waiting for better risk-reward entries. Opportunities will always come around, but only if you have funds to deploy when they do. If you haven't taken profits, it could be prudent to consider doing so. If you prefer to keep holding, just ensure your portfolio is balanced so you're not overexposed to the memecoin/altcoin sector.

Here's a cautionary tale to illustrate the point:

• A whale had $40M in gains across $ai16z and $ZEREBRO.

• Instead of locking in profits, they held firm.

• Within a week, their unrealized gains plummeted to $9M.

• In the end, they exited with a $2M loss despite once being up significantly.

This is a sobering example of how quickly fortunes can change when market conditions shift. We've seen time and again:

• New meme coins often face a ceiling on their market cap.

• SPX itself may not offer the same upside it once did (potentially limited to $2B-$5B).

• Key or large holders may move their profits out fast, leaving latecomers exposed.

• Markets can drop 80% - 90% when overall sentiment deteriorates.

So, remember to take profits where sensible, keep your risks in check, and hold onto capital for future opportunities.

TMG’s take

We genuinely love SPX - the camaraderie, memes, and momentum are unmatched. Still, our mission is to keep holders updated on any emerging risks. No one wants to experience another dramatic drawdown, especially if it could have been mitigated by timely profit-taking.

While the meme and community remain robust, outside market forces can overshadow even the best projects. If you decide to hold, balance that decision with other positions. If you choose to exit, lock in those gains and keep capital ready for new opportunities.

For as long as civilization exists, markets will be around and present opportunities.

We are big fans of SPX, but we recently exercised caution. It was one of the best-performing assets in recent months, backed by a supportive community. Yet, as we've learned time and again, even the strongest assets can face tough headwinds in this challenging market.

Lately, the signs have been pointing to elevated risks, and while SPX has shown resilience, no asset is immune to shifting trends. Let's take a step back, carefully assess the landscape, and ensure we're approaching this with clear eyes.

Are you managing risk effectively?

Many traders, especially those new to the barbell strategy, end up with too much risk on the high-volatility side of their portfolios. Instead of balancing between safer assets and higher-risk plays, they concentrate heavily on memes, often with minimal allocation to majors.

If more than 10%-20% of your portfolio is in a single meme coin, that's a sizable risk. With two years of the bull market already behind us, it's wise to think about preserving capital rather than doubling down without caution, especially when the risk-reward opportunity isn't as attractive as it once appeared.

In this report, we'll cover:

• Broader market concerns - Why liquidity fragmentation is capping upside potential.

• Actionable insights - What you can do to protect capital.

• TMG’s take - Our thoughts on SPX and where we stand.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for your own capital decisions.

Broader market context

Looking at the bigger picture, the market is grappling with dispersion and liquidity fragmentation- over 30 million unique coins, with thousands more launching daily (no thanks to Pump.fun). This saturation disperses liquidity and focus, ultimately limiting how high valuations can realistically go. The original framework for meme assets running to $10b+ was laid out based on previous cycle coins like SHIBA and DOGE, but something we didn't account for was the short attention span and large amount of new coin launches. We've now seen these patterns, where memes stall and fail to run past $5b:

• PNUT soared on election hype but stalled at $2.5B.

• POPCAT was once a powerhouse chart in crypto, yet it couldn't hold above $2B.

• Most coins struggle to surpass a $3B-$5B ceiling, then bleed out.

These examples show the risk of assuming any coin will keep defying gravity. One trader made $12M in $TRUMP, but greed led him to buy more on the way down, losing $9M of his original capital. This scenario isn't isolated- it's a reminder that taking profits is crucial in fast-moving markets.

Time and again, coins can drop 50% or more, then another 60%-80% after that. With BTC already 5x from its lows, expecting every alt to return to its peak might be more hope than strategy at this stage of the cycle.

Why this matters for SPX

Recently, SPX lost key support after hitting $1.60, dipping below $1 into a precarious range. We initially raised concern (early January) and publicly announced it could be a wise move to take profit near the highs. Since that call, SPX fell to $0.60 this week.

Data from on-chain sources shows capital rotation out of SPX:

• We have found 56 addresses sold 100,000+ SPX in the past week.

• 3 addresses unloaded more than 1 million tokens. (1, 2,3)

This mirrors patterns seen in WIF, PNUT, GOAT, GRIFFAIN, POPCAT, ai16z, and countless others. No matter how solid a community might be, a coin can still plunge 80% - 90%. Market conditions have the upper hand in many of these scenarios.

Even though SPX's meme power and community remain strong, the broader market conditions pose a bigger threat right now. Plus, the upside for SPX seems capped between $ 2 B and $ 5 B, similar to other meme-based assets, so the risk-to-reward might not be as favourable as it once was.

Given all this, how do we navigate wisely?

How to play this market: caution & capital preservation

We suggest focusing on capital preservation and waiting for better risk-reward entries. Opportunities will always come around, but only if you have funds to deploy when they do. If you haven't taken profits, it could be prudent to consider doing so. If you prefer to keep holding, just ensure your portfolio is balanced so you're not overexposed and you're all in on one meme.

Here's a cautionary tale to illustrate the point:

• A whale had $40M in gains across $ai16z and $ZEREBRO.

• Instead of locking in profits, they held firm.

• Within a week, their unrealized gains plummeted to $9M.

• In the end, they exited with a $2M loss despite once being up significantly.

This is a sobering example of how quickly fortunes can change when market conditions shift. We've seen time and again:

• New meme coins often face a ceiling on their market cap.

• SPX itself may not offer the same upside it once did (potentially limited to $2B-$5B).

• Key or large holders may move their profits out fast, leaving latecomers exposed.

• Markets can drop 80% - 90% when overall sentiment deteriorates.

So, remember to take profits where sensible, keep your risks in check, and hold onto capital for future opportunities.

TMG take

We genuinely love SPX - the camaraderie, memes, and momentum are unmatched. Still, our mission is to keep holders updated on any emerging risks. No one wants to experience another dramatic drawdown, especially if it could have been mitigated by timely profit-taking.

While the meme and community remain robust, outside market forces can overshadow even the best projects. If you decide to hold, balance that decision with other positions. If you choose to exit, lock in those gains and keep capital ready for new opportunities.

For as long as civilization exists, markets will be around and present opportunities.

Here we are, celebrating another year of our tenure in one of the world's most exhilarating and unpredictable industries. Despite the volatility, doubts, and challenges, Bitcoin has surged past $100k this year—a milestone many wouldn’t have believed possible. This year has been nothing short of extraordinary. Are you ready for what’s next? Because we already are…

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

2024 recap

End of the year – time for positive vibes, optimism and self-reflection. Let’s recap our collective journey in one of the wildest industries together.

Around this time last year, we saw that Solana was performing well relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other ecosystems while memecoins were looking ready to deliver outsized returns. Realising this, after thorough research, we quickly added select memes to our TMG’s picks. Our shift from focusing purely on “utility” or “fundamentals-driven” coins to community-driven assets wasn’t welcomed initially, and there was a lot of uncertainty around our thesis.

However, as it turned out, our instincts were spot on. Our early call on the memecoin trend helped set the tone for the market, and we were proud to have been at the forefront of this shift by being early to WIF, POPCAT and SPX. It was a wild ride, but it is not a secret that the memecoin sector was one of the strongest in 2024, and our picks were winners in this category.

To accommodate a strategy with memes at heart, we adopted the Barbell Portfolio with majors on the one side and selected memes on the other. This portfolio achieved a performance of 291% since we adopted it (April), proving the effectiveness of our balanced strategy that involved low-risk majors with high-risk memes.

However, not only did we nail on memecoins, but our picks with diverse assets that also include altcoins outperformed Bitcoin by 638% in 2024, showcasing the strength of our research not only in memes but also in utilities.

Our performance was further amplified by our macro insights. We correctly identified a choppy market environment between April and September, and while most hedge funds and major banks expected 25bps rate cuts in September, we boldly predicted a 50bps, and that is what FED has delivered.

Let’s also mention that we have been on the right side of history and called Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections months before the election results and its impact on the crypto market. We rode that together, too.

We have produced over 200 research and analysis pieces, and we have created approximately $200 million of wealth for our members. We have launched 4 tools and introduced a new Trading Course designed to teach members everything from scratch to advanced strategies. Our Airdrop Reports created life-changing opportunities, with members earning six-figure rewards by acting on our guidance.

We also did a lot of publications and writing. These sessions were packed with value—educating members about the market, analysing charts in real time, and addressing live questions and doubts on the spot.

As we look ahead to 2025, we’re excited to build on this momentum, pushing boundaries and staying true to our mission of empowering every member of our community to succeed in an even bigger and better year ahead!

TMG’s predictions for 2025

Let’s start from the top: we don’t think the cycle is over. We think that, under Trump’s leadership, Bitcoin will continue to go up while the rest of the market will follow. You can ease your nerves– we think we haven’t topped yet. Here are the rest of the predictions for 2025.

Battle of majors: BTC v ETH v SOL

Let’s start with what we expect to happen among majors. 2024 has been underwhelming for Ethereum despite strong catalysts such as Dencum upgrade and spot ETH ETF approval. It underperformed both BTC and SOL throughout 2024, and the sentiment around Ethereum has probably reached an all-time low. However, ETH is starting to make a comeback. It is bottoming out against BTC chart-wis,e and spot ETH ETF inflows have been accelerating.

Additionally, there is a strong, statistically significant seasonal trend where ETH, in general, outperforms BTC from January to May. Paired with the bottoming chart below, we believe the ETH/BTC chart will start reversing, and ETH will outperform BTC in 2025.

Furthermore, some of our models also suggest a shift from the downtrend to the bottoming phase, which has the potential to turn into a bullish trend. This hasn’t happened yet, to be fair. However, we believe our models will soon start signalling an uptrend. All in all, we think the ETH-to-BTC ratio will start increasing again, and ETH will outperform BTC in 2025, at least until May or so.

Now, let’s move to Solana. Despite SOL being relatively rangebound against BTC, it has massively outperformed ETH and made a new all-time high in 2024. However, after breaking into price discovery, it is back inside the range even though it has maintained its bullish trend on higher timeframes.

Solana is in an interesting position here: 1) It needs to absorb the upcoming unlock in March, and 2) it faces competition from more performant chains like HyperLiquid. These two have led to the recent underperformance relative to BTC and ETH.

However, the good news is that we believe the unlock will be mostly a non-event because it has already been priced in. Secondly, despite the hype, Hyperliquid has a very challenging onboarding process that new retail will struggle with. Therefore, it is likely that Solana will retain its status as the preferred chain for retail investors for AI, DePIN and memecoins.

Furthermore, our machine learning model suggests that SOL will keep outperforming ETH; the uptrend holds, and the ratio is below the shaded area, which typically signals a reversal and undervaluation. All in all, despite having slight hesitation for SOL due to the price going back into the range against ETH, we still expect SOL to outperform both ETH and BTC in most of the 2025 cycle.

To summarise, ETH will finally start outperforming BTC, and SOL is still likely to outperform ETH.

Price targets (majors)

Now let’s move to the most interesting part – our price targets…

• Bitcoin: Our team’s collective wisdom suggests a base case target of $140k - $180k per Bitcoin for 2025.

• Ethereum: We are projecting $6k -$8K per ETH in 2025

• Solana: Our base case target for SOL is between $450–$800

Memecoins

Moving to a billion-dollar question – yes, we do expect at least one or maybe two more memecoin picks that will run to a $1b+ valuation in 2025.

Most of the low-cap PumpFun sh*tfest is over; however, we believe cult memecoins with solid communities will keep striving. The essence of true memecoins is community. There will always be new, shinier tech, more innovation and the next big thing. True memecoins don’t necessarily need tech and aren’t threatened by new innovation because it is all about community and memetics.

Therefore, we are confident that our memecoin picks will continue their strong performance, even though we think there will be some winners outside of the memecoin sector, and we expect rotations from in and out to memecoins and other sectors.

Price targets (memecoins)

Our bull thesis targets still hold, and we are likely to see at least double-digits in our 3 memecoin picks in a bull scenario. Here are our bull targets for 2025 for our memes.

• WIF bull target: $100

• SPX bull target: $69

• POPCAT bull target: $40

Here are our base targets for our memecoin peaks

• WIF base target: $20

• POPCAT base target: $10

• SPX base target: $6.9

Altcoins

We have been bearish on most of the altcoins throughout 2024, and we bet on the majors and memecoins heavily instead. We have been mostly accurate in our calls, and the market has rewarded all of us nicely in 2024.

However, the tides seem to be shifting. With the new crypto-friendly administration, utility coins are coming back, and we are likely to see more rotations from sector to sector. Furthermore, many new utility coins have learnt their lessons from memes– most of them are trying to fair-launch without VCs and give an opportunity for retailers to get in early as well.

For example, Anzen sold almost 7% of its supply to the public at a $6m valuation before shooting to $32m post-token generation (TGE). Hyperliquid didn’t have any VCs involved, and it airdropped 31% of the community. The price has been vertical since TGE. Most AI agents are trying to fair-launch and protect the token from snipers. The trend is clear – utility coins are learning from memecoins and are trying to put the community first.

However, even with solid communities, utility coins’ valuations are inherently capped at their “utility”. That means memes will still provide much higher upside potential. However, if there is money to be made, we will remain open-minded and adjust to what the market is telling us.

Our thesis is that 2025 will be rotational, where DeFi, AI, RWA and memecoins will be pumping one after another. Therefore, unlike in 2024, we are bullish on utility coins, and we will pay close attention to them.

Macro outlook

There are several key things we have our eyes on in terms of macro. First of all, the leader of the free world, who is pro-crypto, is inaugurated in January. Donald Trump has been promising to build a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Some of our team members think the US will indeed adopt it; others believe it is not going to happen this soon and maybe not even under Trump. Similarly, prediction markets suggest that strategic reserve has a chance of happening, but this is not yet clear.

But what we agree on is that talks about the Strategic Reserve will keep persisting, and other countries will copy Trump to leverage Bitcoin to gain support among their population as well. We can already see it in Russia, Japan, and China. Many more countries will further embrace crypto, with Trump leading by example.

Another thing we expect is for FED to keep cutting interest rates. The Federal Reserve is projecting 2 rate cuts in 2025 rather than 4. They are likely to be frontrunning Trump’s inflationary policies, such as tariffs. However, we think Trump is using tariffs as a negotiating tactic, and if he is mostly satisfied with the deals, he might not end up imposing tariffs as much as he was signalling.

Therefore, we think there is a chance we will see three rate cuts instead of 2 if Trump’s policies aren’t as inflationary as the FED expects. This would certainly be bullish for the markets.

Overall, we think 2025 will be bullish for crypto even though we can expect volatility and uncertainty in between. Considering we have been in a bull run since November 2022, we might not be early; however, we do think we haven’t topped yet. However, we think the top will be in 2025, or maybe it will be in early 2026 if we have an elongated cycle.

However, the most likely scenario so far is a typical 4-year cycle with the top in 2025. If that would be true, the top can be anywhere between March and January 2026. However, the closer dates to August have the most likelihood of marking the top.

TMG’s take

We have performed incredibly well in 2024, even though there were opportunities we missed. But this is part of the game – can’t catch everything. However, what we do is adapt to new information. We have been very sceptical of utility coins throughout 2024, but going into 2025, we remain open-minded and believe utility will have its time along with select culty memes. AI, in particular, looks very interesting at this moment.

Overall, it's setting up to be the most bullish year in crypto history because of Trump, pro-crypto US Senate and world leaders embracing crypto. The leader of the free world is inaugurated in January and will lead by example. We are expecting other countries to follow suit.

Some thoughts for 2025: always remember that markets can actually go down, leverage flushouts can happen, and you should be well-prepared for market volatility. That is why you should always remember to manage risks, even in the most bullish environments. Less is more; sit on the spot and don’t touch leverage if you are not experienced.

Don’t get too greedy and have an exit plan. Don’t chase pumps and get shaken out from your core picks; have conviction in your picks. The future is bright, and in 2025, there will be an abundance of wealth to be made! And we will be with you, watching the market, identifying opportunities and supporting you in your journey.

Happy New Year!