WhyEssEff [she/her]

I do the emotes lea-caramelldansen

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Joined 6 years ago
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Cake day: July 25th, 2020

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  • Dentist got me fucked up, went in for a filling yesterday and today I notice that there's just an open cavitation where the filling is supposed to be kitty-cri

    don’t know if it was botched or like fell off or something but it’s very uncomfortable.

    like what even happened. I was supposed to get a new retainer tomorrow and now I gotta cancel because I don’t want them fucking with the unfilled cavity.



  • One thing I've been thinking about as of late is how important demonstrating to your allies why they need to lock in to struggle against the existing order with you is for your relations with them when your actions would pull them into an uncertain or detrimental situation. The observation I have gathered as a layman is that geopolitics is an exercise in wading through inertia, as generally, states want stability. You never want to be the unreasonable actor as the underdog power, because your casus belli needs to be persuasive and rational for your allies not to hedge on the status quo.





  • Alright, that makes sense, I guess I underestimated production capacity here.

    To shift goalposts a little here, I guess I mainly don’t see how this top-up, like the THAAD redirections, won't similarly further entrench them into this quagmire. I assume Iran is also preparing for a backstab, because they were already backstabbed. I want to assume they are going to also top up their missile and drone capacity in the time they have?

    I just have an immediate hunch that this is much more of a pyrrhic tactical retreat for the U.S. compared to the 12 Day War, and I would think Iran would be accounting for these terms being ultimately flimsy, unless it is a true unalloyed fell-for-it-again


  • spitballing here from a layman understanding. If this is a two-week armistice, how is the U.S. going to "rearm" in this situation? From what I have been reading from other commenters and sources posted here:

    • the U.S. does not have the domestic manufacturing capacity to self-supply the deficit of interceptors
    • Iran, comparatively, has more domestic manufacturing capacity to self-supply missiles/drones (unless that was crippled in the strikes on Tehran, but I want to think that supply mechanisms would be somewhat accounted for in DMD?)
    • this armistice is for two weeks, after which resumption of war or deeper negotiations will happen

    Compared to the 12 Day War, which had a restrained exchange between the U.S. and Iran in order to wind it down, the U.S. has been much further committed to this iteration. I don't see how this is a repetition of that because I don't see how the U.S. has a two-week turnaround to a favorable position here.

    if Iran comes out with temporary favorable terms and it becomes a two-week race to rearm, I would assume that Iran would also be playing the same game now rather than acting on an assumption that the situation is winding down. If the "ceasefire" is declared broken by the U.S… okay? They just resume operations? It’s not like it's primo casus belli for the world anyways, not going to galvanize their regional/geopolitical allies against them or make them hesitant, it's just an excuse to sucker punch them. They get a hit in during the armistice, the war resumes, and we're back here again.

    Is this cope? I just think it's rash to assume this is the same exact situation as the prior instance without letting it play out first and seeing what both nations do in the interim