The Future of Aviation
In 1996 the United Nations General Assembly proclaimed that 7 December was to be the International Civil Aviation Day.
The day has been celebrated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) since 7 December 1994, the 50th anniversary of the signing the Convention on International Civil Aviation. The purpose of the day is to recognize the importance of aviation, especially international air travel, to the social and economic development of the world. The day is intended is to help generate and reinforce worldwide awareness of the importance of international civil aviation to the social and economic development of States, and of the unique role of ICAO in helping States to cooperate and realize a global rapid transit network at the service of all mankind. As the UN and world nations have now adopted Agenda 2030, and embarked on a new era in global sustainable development, the importance of aviation as an engine of global connectivity has never been more relevant to the Chicago Convention’s objectives to look to international flight as a fundamental enabler of global peace and prosperity.
But COVID-19 hit hard the sector to shake it in its foundations. What the future might hold for aviation? What future hold for pilots? Today I will try answer that as an aerospace engineer in the sector.
Aircraft have had an auto-pilot for many years now, but it has always required a human pilot to be in the cockpit. How close are we to having pilot jobs become fully automated?
Up to now there was a consensus that no matter the amount of automation a human presence would still be present in the cockpit. With the introduction of VTOL, AMM and automated cars the change might come sooner than anticipated. There are three main driving force that might speed up the process; firstly the wages of pilots are high and constitutes one of the major airliner expense. Secondly the automation is already present at a certain level. Since in 70s airplanes are capable of autopilot, even landing and taking off. Thirdly, the COVID-19 created a gap, the data shows that the aviation will be in severe short of pilots recovering from the pandemic.
From an engineering point of view the only real obstacle between an automated sky and today pilot is the perception of the public, which is being changed and adapted faster than ever. Driver less cars, trains, buses and trams all add up to this transition. But what are the gains?
- The majority of accidents are human error related.
- Under pressure machines are more capable of calling logical decision than us humans.
- Without pilots aviation would be cheaper.
- Without pilots airplanes can be made “more efficient” as human interface will not be needed.
Thus I do think that within 30 years a major transition to pilot-less aircrafts will take place and that the initial hesitancy to not have a pilot will be dispersed really fast. We humans adopt. The Airbus A320 family debut in Air France show crashed; Boeing 737 Max was a disaster and yet they are operating.
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According to https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/ although the pilot job is not under high risk but still has a risk much higher than one might anticipate.
Increasing Disparity
One of the outcomes of the pandemic has been the increased inflation all around the globe. It is a well known and documented fact that with increasing inflation the income gap increases. Some airlines have responded to the pandemic by restructuring for greater efficiency; others are merely muddling through. Occasionally, this is linked to state-aid programs, which may reduce the incentive for much-needed measures such as cost, organizational, and operational restructuring. Airlines that are not proactively transforming risk failing to set the business up for longer-term structural value creation.
How to Increase Value?
Many experts and market researches points out that elevating the amount separated for IT, R&D and digital investment pays off. Becoming better can necessitate investment. Even though many airlines find themselves in financial straits. Before the pandemic, airlines spent roughly 5 percent of their revenue on IT. This is relatively low compared with other sectors. By means of comparison, the retail industry spends around 6 percent on average, and financial services 10 percent. There is a distinct lack of innovation in aviation for the last ten years except for the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). The take here is that aviation once the driver of the technology is now lead by the developments in other industries.
The author suggests* the following examples for example, airlines can respond to the quicker recovery of domestic and short-haul flights by investing in direct sales and owning the customer relationship. Relationships with IT and distribution providers could be re-explored. Carriers can also invest in the customer experience — such as making check-in and boarding processes more seamless — and support services — from revenue accounting to invoicing — to drive the next level of efficiency. Beyond this, the next horizon is analytics, which involves, among other efforts, using data in smarter ways to enhance decision making, requiring some investment but yielding significant payoffs.
The Bottleneck
As the demand increases the airliners are rushing for new airplanes and OEMs ramps up production and thus the aircraft markets may be oversupplied for some time to come. Which might the perfect* time to renew the fleet.
Although this said the air cargo transportation seems to remain under supplied for some time.
The Distant Future
As per ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) “Innovation in Aviation = Value Added for New Mobility”: “Engines and aircraft become lighter, quieter and more efficient. Emerging technologies are reshaping with robotics, artificial intelligence, the internet of things, unmanned aircraft systems and the push for hybrid and electric airplanes — just to name a few. Alternative fuels can significantly change the current scenario of aviation in support of the environmental protection. The vast investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data could be seen as a promising way of increasing safety, efficiency and sustainability. These technologies can help improve aviation infrastructure and airspace utilization. And aviation is now going beyond mobility between continents and cities — it is starting to impact mobility within cities. These innovations relate primarily to moving goods for now — but they will quickly become viable for moving people as well. This wave of innovations in aviation will surely impact the wider transport sector as well as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. These concepts show some examples of what the future has in store — from moving people to delivering packages — the innovations are truly amazing.”
Last Notes
I wish many years of prosperity and safety in the industry. The civil aviation will continue to thrive. Let us hope that we will all be in the trend train and not be a part of the past.
The suggestion is not a financial advise of any kind. I am not a financial advisor. Investments can be risky.
