Three 7's
He Can’t Guard Me Blog
The NBA Playoffs didn’t wait until Round 2 to give us thrilling matchups, and it’s peaking with three game 7’s from the Eastern Conference in one weekend. Let’s dive in to what got us here and who’s moving on to Round 2.
Best two words in sports x3.
Celtics 76ers
Regardless of the outcome of game 7 this series has been defined by remarkable returns from injury by the best players on both teams. Jayson Tatum has played over 40 minutes in multiple games in this series, less than two months after his return from his ruptured achilles. We are still more than a week away from the one year anniversary of his injury and he is averaging over 23 points and 10 rebounds per game, even after sitting out the fourth quarter in a blowout game 6 loss. The speed and apparent completeness of his recovery has been miraculous.
On the other side we have seen Joel Embiid, who returned to the court two and a half weeks after an emergency appendectomy, completely flip the dynamic of this series. The Celtics dominated his return in Game 4, but in his first NBA action since his surgery Embiid had 26–10–6 in 34 minutes. That was followed by a 33 point performance in which he did not make a single 3, and led the Sixers to a road win that has given Philly the momentum in the series. He has exposed the Boston center rotation and is drawing double teams that free up the Maxey, VJ and the reinvigorated (you could even say rejuiced) Playoff P.
When an athlete suffers more than their fair share of injuries during their career they can either be venerated for their toughness, or branded as flawed and somehow responsible for the maladies they have experienced. I don’t understand how anyone can look at what Joel Embiid has fought through to be on the court during the playoffs (this year and previously) and come to the conclusion that he hasn’t battled to be on the court when his team needs him the most. He has proved the haters wrong again and his talent and joy for the game of basketball has powered the Sixers to within a game of taking down the favorite to win the conference when the playoffs started.
The 76ers are playing with house money having pushed the series this far coming out of the play in tournament, while the pressure on Boston is mounting. Game 7 feels like it is either going to be Celtics in a blowout or 76ers in a close one. Winning a game 7 on the road is still massively difficult. VJ Edgecombe has been just as impressive in this series as he was during his entire rookie season, and still may have the highest ceiling in one of the deepest draft classes ever, but there’s no knowing how a rookie will handle the pressure of a winner take all game with a hostile crowd until they are out there. Jaylen Brown needs to back up the season he just had as Boston’s best player. It is ultimately his team (for the rest of the year at least) and he needs to be ready to put the team on his shoulders.
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I think the 76ers keep this game close, the crowd and the team in Boston get tight, and Philly takes it. Its the more fun outcome, and the Celtics and Bruins getting eliminated on back to back nights while the Red Sox are in last place is exactly the sports karma Boston deserves.
Pistons Magic
I didn’t expect to see this kind of fight from Orlando after the underwhelming season they just had, but the two teams mirror and overlap with each other in so many ways that it seems like this series was destined to go the distance.
The most obvious mirror images Cade and Paolo. The two were the back to back number one picks, and it is natural that Banchero would elevate his game to try and match his counterpart who he as seen ascend to an echelon above him over the last two seasons. Cade and Paolo have similar archetypes; oversized for their positions while remaining exceptionally skilled. Both players are carrying their teams offensively, epitomized by their matching 45 point performances in game 5. Cade’s turnovers have been an issue (he broke the NBA playoffs record for most TO’s in a 3 game span during the series) but is still the best player in the series, and has proved it over these six games.
Coaches JB Bickerstaff and Jamal Mosley are also close friends and have cultivated team identities built on defense and athleticism. Orlando leans slightly more into size, while Detroit is more inclined towards speed and tenacity, but the all-defense approach from both teams has ground down scoring, leading to closer games with more chances for variance down the stretch. The defining moment of the series so far is the second half of game 6 in which the Pistons held the Magic to an unbelievable 19 points. It is going to take a heck of a coaching performance from Jamal Mosley to get his team up for a game 7 in Detroit (in front of a crowd that is going to be going absolutely berserk) and make this a contest.
The other crucial overlap is in the personal lives of the two teams’ centers. Magic center Wendell Carter is dating Piston’s breakout second star Jalen Duren’s ex-girlfriend, WNBA superstar Angel Reece, and has also been kicking his ass up and down the court. It is hard to say whether Duren’s disappearing act in the series bodes poorly for game 7, or whether the fact the the series is tied when the Pistons have been doing it with almost no contribution from their second best player means that they can still go up a level. Either way, we will be here for the tea. (As an aside, just when it seemed like basketball in the city of Chicago couldn’t get any more hopeless and pathetic we somehow, like Jalen Duren, managed to fumble Angel Reece.)
If all that wasn’t rough enough for Duren he also had to experience this:
Franz Wagner is still a game time decision with an injury, but given his injury history Orlando should not rush him back into such a physical series. The Pistons still need someone to step up and help Cade with the offensive load, but home-court advantage and momentum from the second half of game 6 should propel Detroit to the second round. Under 202.5 seems like a sure thing.
Cavs Raptors
This is the only series in which the home team has won every game, and I expect that trend to continue with the Cavs handling their business and advancing on Sunday. The overtime game 6 game winner gives RJ Barrett the defining moment of his career, and Scottie Barnes has answered the call and can make a case that he is the best player in the series so far. But Cleveland is the more talented team should be able to close it out at home.
There is more riding on this game for the Cavs than there is for any of the other 5 teams playing game 7’s this weekend. If they lose this series there will almost certainly be massive moves made this summer to reshape the roster. The East has been open for the last two years and is only going to get better next year with the return of Haliburton and a full season from Tatum. The window is closing on Cleveland with this core and a loss on Sunday could seal their fate.
James Harden is due for a great game 7 performance and the matchup and talent favors Cleveland. Cavs advance.
Enjoy the Ball!
