Seeking Alpha in the 2023 NBA Draft
In the realm of NBA decision-making, three key elements really matter: drafting, trading, and free agency. Each component plays a crucial role in shaping a team’s future. In this inaugural post, I will delve mainly into the drafting process.
Drafting is unique in that it offers the closest scenario to having perfect information. Both NBA teams and the public generally have equal access to data and film on prospects. From an outsider’s perspective, this allows me to accurately asses my abilities against real teams in the most transparent and systematic way possible.
Traditional methods of creating an NBA draft board involve ranking players from 1 through 60, predicting their future success in the league. However, this approach is inherently flawed. It often leads to biases, as players are tightly associated with their draft pick numbers, creating skewed perceptions of their potential.
In finance, particularly in hedge funds and money management, performance is often evaluated based on the concept of ‘alpha’ generation. Alpha refers to the excess return on an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index. It’s a measure of an investment’s performance on a risk-adjusted basis.
Adopting this financial concept, I propose a new approach to evaluating draft prospects. Instead of focusing on who the best players might be, I will concentrate on which players are likely to generate the most alpha based on their expected draft position. This means a second-round pick who becomes a solid rotation player could generate more alpha than a high lottery pick who becomes an All-Star.
The primary objective here is not to pinpoint the best player per se, but to enhance my skills in player evaluation pre-draft. This approach requires a shift in thinking, focusing on value over absolute performance.
Below is my list of players, ranked based on the alpha I predict they will generate. Those above the ‘dotted line’ are expected to provide positive alpha; those below are likely to yield negative alpha. This list is more than a set of predictions; it’s a baseline for my ongoing learning and development in draft analysis.
It’s important to note that this is my first foray into this method of evaluation. The accuracy of this initial list is less critical than its role as a starting point for continual improvement. Success in this endeavor will be measured by the evolution of my analytical skills and the refinement of my draft strategies over time.
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RANKINGS:
1. Victor Wembanyama
- Pretty self-explanatory
2. Scoot Henderson
- Not an excellent track record for small guards who can’t shoot
- Great feel for the game and playmaking ability; clearly sees the game one step ahead
- Has a dependable mid-range jump shot
- Good defensive intensity but surprisingly gets beat off the dribble often
- Lots of improvement from years 1 to 2; big +
- Good team rebounder
3. Maxwell Lewis
- My favorite player in the draft
- The agility, flexibility, balance, and footwork is fantastic
- IMO 3 level scorer with the potential to be a star
- A bit slow-footed on defense but has good instincts
- Fine athlete
- The best player on a bad Pepperdine team; had to take a lot of end-the-clock shots
- Below average rebounder
4. Ausar Thompson
- IMO the most intriguing player in the draft; every time I watch him I like him more
- Plays with great pace
- Good floor command, solid frame
- Much improved shooter when he has time to spot up
- Willing playmaker
- Seems like he has good defensive instinct but not sure bc of the OTE format
- If he can get his shot right he has a chance to be special
- Serious questions about how effective he’ll be when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands
- A Jonathan Kuminga level athlete with De’aaron Fox’s pace and play style
5. Brandon Miller
- Good feel for the game on offense
- Elite shooter
- The handle is a bit overrated
- Poor defensively
- I see Michael Porter jr
6. Jarace Walker
- Impact defender who will fit in on the next level
- Solid feel for the game; much more than an athletic shotblocker
- Would be really nice to see him go to a team with a dominant guard who draws traps of the P&R w/ him as an outlet
7. Amen Thompson
8. JALEN HOOD-SCHIFINO
- Love his defensive intensity and instincts
- Great hands
- Plays well out of P&R
- Needs to improve the shot and tighten the handle
9. Cason Wallace
- Elite shooter
- Relies on his floater a lot, unsure about how he’ll finish around the rim at the next level (need to keep track of synergy data)
10. Kobe Bufkin
- Great body language
- Good team rebounder
- Plays well with the corner empty and with space
- Gives good energy on defense but is not necessarily a strength that translates to the next level; ball screen defense was bad
11. Keyonte George
- Will survive bc he’s built to guard multiple positions, good defensive instincts
- A solid shooter and can move off the ball
- Struggles to get to the rim
- Struggles when the screener's defender is at the level of the screen
- My guess is his iso game won’t transfer to the next level but I could be wrong
12. Jordan Hawkins
- Good shooter but his movement is a bit overrated
- Good recovery on defense, has solid instincts and gives effort
- Actually think his finishing at the rim will improve at the next level with better spacing
13. Noah Clowney
- Looks like he won’t be able to switch on to guards at the next level
- I don’t think 3pt shooting will translate
- Great movement on his drives, looks like a guard
- Will look a lot better with NBA spacing
14. Colby Jones
15. James Nnaji
- Rare combo of ahteltiscm and corodiantion
- There's something to be said for a guy who knows his role
- I'm thinking 2020 Javalee McGee
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
1. GREGORY JACKSON II
2. Anthony Black
3. Taylor Hendricks
4. Cam Whitmore
- Sometimes seems to have tunnel vision
- Tough combination to not have patience on the ball and not be a great passer
- Good team rebounder
5. Brice Sensabaugh
- Confident in his shot
- The big question will be if he can get his mid-range shot off against a bigger defender at the next level
- Tunnel vision
- Struggles to create space and get to the rim
- Not concerned about turnovers, he won't be allowed to make those passes at the next level
- Good off-ball movement
- Looks lost on defense most of the time
6. Jett Howard
- Good shot
- Terrible defense
- Not an intense player, so what is he elite at?
7. Gradey Dick
- Great shooter
- Good athlete
- Gives great energy but is average defensively
- Above average finisher around the rim
- Can’t create his own shot
- Most of his value comes from spot up 3’s and transition
- That being said could be a result of the college system (similar to tyler herro or devin booker)
- Reminds me a bit of Coby white
8. Bilal Coulibaly
9. Brandin Podziemski
- Really can’t defend and doesn’t have the height to make up for it
- Good shooter off the dribble and spot ups
- Supper poised
10. Bobi KLINTMAN
11. Dereck Lively
- Good size even for NBA level
- Don’t think his defensive impact translates to the next level
12. Nick Smith Jr
13. Olivier-Maxence Prosper
14. Rayan Rupert
- Athletic and he’s 19 with room to improve
- Decent handle for his size
- Draft stock is largely based on his body type and age; not a great skill set so far
- Interesting pick for a team with a good development track record
