Eight and Four
A few months into this project, and we’ve gotten exactly two out of every three picks correct, with several underdogs in the kennel.
8–4: the system works.
Our goal remains seventy-percent or better longterm, and we are very, very close. We’re also learning on the job: of our four losses, one came from picking against an essentially un-researchable opponent, and another from a super long-shot. We have only two losses that were based in solid analysis and responsible betting, and one of those was likely due to injury. Using the points-concept to leverage our bets is already helping with profitability, as well. We saw that on display on Saturday — thank you Sean Brady.
That fight taught us more about his opponent than it did Brady. I’ve always rooted for Michael Chiesa. He has one of the all-time killer walkout songs (Stranglehold) and it’s cool to see a guy with such limitations find so much success using cleverness and discipline and good game plans. But I knew that Brady was a really terrible matchup for him. Some will point to the third round and Chiesa touching Brady up on the feet; keep in mind that much of that was due to Brady’s exhaustion. He’s never looked half as tired in fight before now, but Chiesa was good enough to negate takedowns from a technical standpoint. So Brady, as we predicted, used his demi-god like strength to simply force the issue. He knew what he was doing and knew that he would gas in the third — I’m sure of that. But he had enough fumes leftover to make it work.
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That third round, where Chiesa did well, did not surprise me in itself. The nature of the fight set up a certain inevitability in that regard. What surprised me was Chiesa’s hands in the first round: he and Brady were essentially even on the feet, which for Chiesa is super impressive. He has somehow gotten a lot faster, and his striking is really coming along. We may have seen glimpses of that in the Neil Magny fight, although that one had more to do with Magny making terrible decisions in a fight he could have won. Chiesa Vs. Vicente Luque showed us a bit, but that fight was too brief to really be certain of what you saw. Now we know: Michael Chiesa has willed himself, over many years, into becoming an average UFC-level striker. Possibly above average. It’s a pyrrhic victory for him, marred by being dominated in the grappling that is supposed to be his home ground. I don’t think he will ever fight for a title. But good on him for building himself into a very high-level fighter; he was given a lot less to work with, and has gone much further, than many guys who were far more naturally blessed.
As for Sean Brady, the day will come when he faces a rangy, elite striker with truly excellent takedown defense. A Michael Bisping type. That’s when Brady will really be tested. And if that opponent has good cardio and sets a pace in a five-round main event, I will not like his chances.
The rest of the fights were not so great, all in all — nearly a record number of wins by decision. It’s unfortunate, but a regression to the mean had to be coming after so many killer weekends. Taila Santos was a silver lining. I am already looking forward to her as Valentina Shevchenko’s next real challenge. Misha Tate’s snake-charmer approach in her loss was interesting, too. People are making fun of it, but I’d love to see how a fighter with better hand speed might utilize that style. It could look a lot like Yoel Romero, I think, the way he lulls and distracts and then explodes. Misha obviously has a very strong, clear mind, and is tough as nails. Her title win against Holly Holm is still one of my all-time favorite performances. I wonder if she could make flyweight? The girls are too big at bantamweight for her now.
So that’s a wrap on those fights. No UFC this weekend, but we’ll see if we can’t find something fun elsewhere. Stay loose cowboys.
-OKP
