MLS Cup Playoffs: Conference Semi Finals Preview
Round One Review
FC Cincinnati 2–0 New York Red Bulls (5–2, 1–1[8–7p])
Orlando City 2–0 Nashville SC (1–0, 1–0)
Columbus Crew 2–1 Atlanta United (2–0, 2–4, 4–2)
Philadelphia Union 2–0 New England Revolution (3–1, 1–0)
St Louis City SC 0–2 Sporting Kansas City (1–4, 0–1)
Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC Dallas (2–0, 1–3, 1–0)
Los Angeles FC 2–0 Vancouver Whitecaps (5–2, 1–0)
Houston Dynamo 2–1 Real Salt Lake (2–1, 1–1[4–5p], 1–1 [4–3p]
7 out of 8 picks is not bad. While backing Nashville to turn around their form against Orlando ultimately was a bridge too far, a pair of 1–0 defeats was at least fitting for a clash of two below average attacks and above average defences.
Eastern Conference Semi Finals
FC Cincinnati (1) vs Philadelphia Union (4)
Number 1 seeds FC Cincinnati are favourites to reach the conference final with the best underlying attack, best underlying defence and home advantage to boot. In keeping with their more direct style of play, Philadelphia’s one advantage lies in set pieces and will likely need to rely on them if they are to have a chance at progressing.
Pick: FC Cincinnati
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Orlando City (2) vs Columbus Crew (3)
Orlando City picked up 4 points in the regular season against Columbus Crew from an aggregate xG of 3.2–6.8. Can their hot streak in front of goal continue? I’m saying no, and that Columbus’ far superior underlying attack trump home advantage.
Pick: Columbus Crew
Western Conference Semi Finals
Seattle Sounders (2) vs Los Angeles FC (3)
The toughest matchup to call of this round is between the 2 highest remaining seeds in the Western Conference. Seattle have the best underlying defence in the last 6 seasons of MLS and home advantage while LAFC boast the better underlying attack, a still great defence, and the fact they only had to play 2 matches in the previous round. They say defence wins championships, but maybe offence wins MLS Conference Semi-Finals
Pick: LAFC
Houston Dynamo FC (4) vs Sporting Kansas City (8)
Sporting Kansas City’s reward for beating the Western Conference regular season winners is a trip to Houston. Dynamo FC have the edge on both sides of the ball as well as home advantage making this a much more straightforward pick. The one fly in the ointment may be that Houston not only played an extra match in the previous round, but also went through the drama of 2 penalty shootouts.
Pick: Houston Dynamo FC
Long days and pleasant nights.
