Baylor Bears Preview: Can Aranda Bounce Back After Down Year?
TLDR: Dave Aranda’s second year in charge of the Baylor Bears (2021) was an overwhelming success. The Bears finished with a 12–2 record, a Big 12 title, and a Sugar Bowl victory over Ole Miss. Last year, Baylor took a step backwards, finishing 6–7 on the year. The defense has underperformed by Aranda’s standards, and I’m not convinced that they turn that around this year.
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Floor: 4–8, Ceiling: 9–3, Projection: 6–6
Offensively, the Bears return 60% of last year’s production, along with 7 starters. Quarterback Blake Shapen is back, but Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson is gunning for his job. Shapen will have to be significantly better than he was last season, and he can start by taking better care of the football (10 INTs last year). Running back Richard Reese was a freshman All-American last year and will be a big part of this offense again this year. The receiver room returns 3 of the top 4 pass catchers from last year and should be improved. The biggest question facing this team is the offensive line. Gavin Byers is the only returning lineman. Baylor adds the Barrington brothers to the line from BYU, but this unit is going to be very inexperienced. If the offensive line gets going, watch for this offense to be really good!
Baylor returns 5 starters from a pretty average defense last year. The Bears allowed 371 yards per game and 26.8 points per game, which ranked 57th and 68th respectively. Only 51% of defensive production is returning this year, and that’s mostly because 4 of the 5 starters from last year’s secondary are gone. The defense allowed 223 passing yards per game last year, so it remains to be seen if this group will be better or not. The top returning tackler for the Bears is linebacker Matt Jones (75 tackles), and they’ll rely on him to step into a leadership role this fall. Also back are the top 5 sack getters, so there’s a good chance this Baylor defense creates more pressure next year. Garmon Randolph and Gabe Hall are 2 to watch up front for this defense. With the offensive line being such an unknown for this team it’s going to be crucial for this defense to make plays, and the front 7 should allow Baylor to do that.
Baylor’s 4 year recruiting average is 39. The 2023 class finished as the #32 class in the country according to On3. The Bears’ top recruit of the 2023 class is offensive tackle Isaiah Robinson (Arlington, TX). Robinson is a great sized OT, has the athleticism to pull as a tackle, and uses his body really well. If he can improve his hand placement while blocking he can develop into a big time player for the Bears. Baylor also added 3 big time transfers in this class: WR Ketron Jackson (Arkansas), QB Sawyer Robinson (Mississippi State), and CB Isaiah Dunson (Miami). The Bears brought in some quality talent in this last recruiting window.
Baylor is a pretty big wild card going into the 2023 season. Ever since the days of Art Briles, the program has consistently beat expectations. I don’t think anyone picked them to win the Big 12 in 2021, but they did. This team could win a lot of games this year, especially if the offensive line gets rolling. If the offensive line really struggles, they could be pretty bad. I think middle of the road is most likely, but Baylor has proven me wrong before.
