Evolution and Sustainability: Gathering the Strands for an Anthropocene Synthesis
Philosophical Transactions of the The Royal Society, Volume 379, Issue 1893, 1 January 2024
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rstb/2024/379/1893
The following 18 articles may be of interest to those having Anthropocene concerns. Each article is the product of a small group [<13] of academics (and soon most articles will be written by [0] authors as AI will write them based on synthetic data) and features what their consensus thinking is (and failure to think) on the topic of this issue. The assumption is that the Anthropocene has a synthesis (viable outcome), that global sustainability is possible for Modern Techno-Industrial society, and that academic know-a-lots can divine it (by reading a lot of tea leaves of data).
Read each article in link above, or at least titles and some or all of the abstracts below. We of the Anthropocene are playing (badly) a global endgame. “For the first time in history a conviction has developed among those who can actually think more than a decade ahead that we are playing a global endgame. Humanity’s grasp on the planet is not strong. It is growing weaker. Our population is too large….” — Edward O. Wilson, Half Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life 2016.
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This issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the The Royal Society may come to be of historical interest, like that of the 1972 A Blueprint for Survival issue of The Ecologist (and have the same outcome). “Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know” — M. King Hubbert.
SUMMARY
How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead societies on a trajectory of global sustainability? The astonishing growth in human population, economic activity, technological capacity and environmental impact — together known as the Anthropocene — has brought these questions to the fore. In this theme issue, we bring together the major elements of a theory of human evolution and sustainability on Earth. We show how diverse theories and approaches help to understand the past, present and future evolution of the Anthropocene, and discover new opportunities for moving towards sustainability. Collectively, the work provides the basis for an evolutionary synthesis of the human predicament on planet Earth.
INTRODUCTION
Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis [3]
Abstract
How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead societies on a trajectory of global sustainability? The astonishing growth in human population, economic activity and environmental impact has brought these questions to the fore. This theme issue pulls together a variety of traditions that seek to address these questions using different theories and methods. In this Introduction, we review and organize the major strands of work on how the Anthropocene evolved, how evolutionary dynamics are influencing sustainability efforts today, and what principles, strategies and capacities will be important to guide us towards global sustainability in the future. We present a set of synthetic insights and highlight frontiers for future research efforts which could contribute to a consolidated synthesis.
PART I: PAST — HOW DID THE ANTHROPOCENE EVOLVE?
Articles:
Agentic processes in cultural evolution: relevance to Anthropocene sustainability [3]
Abstract
Humans have evolved culturally and perhaps genetically to be unsustainable. We exhibit a deep and consistent pattern of short-term resource exploitation behaviours and institutions. We distinguish agentic and naturally selective forces in cultural evolution. Agentic [blind?] forces are quite important compared to the blind forces (random variation and natural selection) in cultural evolution and gene-culture coevolution. We need to use the agentic [political] policy-making processes to [maybe] evade the impact of blind natural selection. We argue that agentic forces became important during our Pleistocene history and into the Anthropocene present. Human creativity in the form of deliberate innovations [e.g. Clovis point/atlatl/megafauna extinctions] and the deliberate selective diffusion of technical and social advances [like cars/car culture] drove this process forward for a long time before planetary limits became a serious issue. We review models with multiple positive feedbacks that roughly fit this observed pattern. Policy changes in the case of large-scale existential threats like climate change are made by political and diplomatic agents grasping and moving levers of institutional power in order to [maybe as may be hoped] avoid the operation of blind natural selection and agentic forces driven by narrow or short-term goals.
Our fragile future under the cumulative cultural evolution of two technologies [3]
Abstract
We derive and analyse a model with unusual features characterizing human activities over the long-run. First, human population dynamics draw heavily on consumer–resource modelling in ecology in that humans must consume biological resources to produce new humans. Second, the model also draws heavily from economic growth theory in that humans do not simply consume biological resources; they also produce [extract] the [finite] resources they consume. Finally, humans use two types of technology. Consumption technology affects the rate at which humans can extract resources. Production technology controls how effectively humans convert labour [fossil fuel energy slaves] into new resources. The dynamics of both types of technology are subject to cumulative cultural evolutionary processes that allow both technological progress and regress. The resulting model exhibits a wide range of dynamical regimes. That said, the system is routinely sensitive to initial conditions, with wildly different outcomes given the same parameter values. Moreover, the system exhibits a basic fragility in the sense that human activities often lead to the endogenous extinction of the human species. This can happen gently, or it can follow periods of explosive human activity with super-exponential growth that ends in collapse.
Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations [8]
Abstract
Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena [collapse is exciting, for a time]. Human populations tend to show rapid expansions from low to high population density along with increased social complexity in just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as a remarkable feature of Homo sapiens population dynamics, most likely fuelled by the ability to accumulate cultural/technological innovations [but mostly energy/resources] that actively modify their environment. We are especially interested in establishing if the demographic transitions of pre-historic populations show the same dynamic signature of the Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between population growth rates and size). Our results show that population growth patterns across different pre-historic societies were similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution in developed western societies. These features, which appear to have been operating during most of our recent demographic history from hunter–gatherers to modern industrial societies, imply that the dynamics of cooperation underlay sudden population transitions in human societies [on the upslope and scarcity-induced conflict dynamics dominate on the downslope].
Towards understanding human–environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case [7]
Abstract
The overall trajectory for the human–environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well as of expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern has been explained in terms of an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, the evoked demographic–resource-complexity mechanisms have not been empirically tested. By integrating proxy [synthetic] data for population sizes, palaeoclimate and internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from the population dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population sizes, warfare and social upscaling) and exogenous (climate) variables module the dynamic in past agrarian societies. We focused on the inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities by engineering arid and semi-arid landscapes during the last 2000 years. Our modelling approach indicates that these populations experienced a boom-and-bust dynamic over the last millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback between population sizes, hydroclimate, social upscaling, warfare and ecosystem engineering. Thus, the human–environment loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources and the ability of problem-solving. [Maize production in Atacoma Desert depended on water and soil fertility, and one or more deficiency lead to failure. Failure led to an end of cooperation and to extreme violence.]
Spread of the cycles: a feedback perspective on the Anthropocene [2]
Abstract
What propelled the human ‘revolutions’ that started the Anthropocene? and what could speed humanity out of trouble? Here, we focus on the role of reinforcing feedback cycles, often comprised of diverse, unrelated elements (e.g. fire, grass, humans), in propelling abrupt and/or irreversible, revolutionary changes. We suggest that differential ‘spread of the cycles’ has been critical to the past human revolutions of fire use, agriculture, rise of complex states and industrialization. For each revolution, we review and map out proposed reinforcing feedback cycles, and describe how new systems built on previous ones, propelling us into the Anthropocene. We argue that to escape a bleak Anthropocene will require abruptly shifting from existing unsustainable ‘vicious cycles’, to alternative sustainable ‘virtuous cycles’ that can outspread and outpersist them. This will need to be complemented by a revolutionary cultural shift from maximizing growth to maximizing persistence (sustainability). To achieve that we suggest that non-human elements need to be brought back into the feedback cycles underlying human cultures and associated measures of progress. Full article.
How greedy is too greedy? A network toy model for evaluating the sustainability of biased evolutionary dynamics [3]
Abstract
Modern humanity has changed the biosphere at a global scale, threatening its own sustainability. It is claimed that through technology humans maximize the extraction of energy [MPP] from the natural system towards their own benefit, with rates of appropriation that surpass the time-scales for systemic adaptation. This time-decoupled coevolutionary dynamic is at the core of human societal unsustainability. Here, we developed in silico experiments of an open energy-based flowing network toy model of natural systems and study the effects that greedy evolutionary strategies, resembling human societal demands, have upon the performance and scarcity tolerance of the system. We aim to determine the flexibility that those biased evolutionary dynamics have for matching or surpassing natural evolution outcomes. We studied four different indexes of system’s growth and development (total system throughflow (TST), average mutual information, ascendency and entropy difference) and compare their scarcity tolerance and performance outcomes with respect to four different greedy scenarios. The results showed that greedy strategies rarely surpassed the tolerance and performance achieved by natural systemic evolution. The nature of the greedy scenarios developed were closely related to increases in TST and therefore, we emphasized this comparison. Here, the maximum percentage of greedy networks capable of surpassing natural dynamics was around one-third (approx. 35%35%). However, results suggest the existence of a space parameter where local increases of energy flow can outperform the outcomes of natural systemic evolution, but no evident network property seems to characterize those greedy networks. A mild inverse relationship was found between the number of links that greedy nodes have towards the output and their capacity to outpass the control evolution. As many of the human societal effect upon biospheric processes have dissipative byproducts, knowing that such dynamics might diminish the systems tolerance and performance suggest care in their (ab)use. Full article.
PART II: PRESENT — EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF THE ANTHROPOCENE
Articles:
Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability [12]
Abstract
The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. Full article.
Innovation for sustainability: how actors are myopically caught in processes of co-evolution [2]
Abstract
In this paper, we argue that the development, uptake and adoption of innovations resembles an evolutionary process of variation, selection and retention (within broader processes of co-evolution) in which actors are myopically caught. We do so in four steps. First, we review in what ways socio-technical evolution resembles biological evolution. Second, we argue that in socio-technical evolution so-called ‘configurations that work’ can be viewed as evolutionary units, which are subject to selection pressures, variation and human-made couplings between variation and selection. This explains why innovation is often cumulative, based on variation and recombination. Third, we discuss how producers, consumers, governments and scientists are myopically caught in processes of co-evolution. While humans are capable of imagining the need for system change and details of desired systems, they are less capable of accepting the concomitant higher costs and inconveniences and adopt new interpretive schemes. Fourth, in a pluralist world, steering is done by all kind of actors, including those who actively resist transformative change. Because of this, steering by government and coalitions of change can achieve little more than a modulation of ongoing dynamics, despite disturbing evidence of a run-away climate, mass extinction, pervasive ecological degradation and steady depletion of resources. A new consciousness of the Anthropocene can evoke fundamental changes in science and the economy if — and only if — they are sufficiently carried by institutional changes and new practices. Full article.
Cities of the Anthropocene: urban sustainability in an eco-evolutionary perspective [1]
Abstract
Cities across the globe are driving systemic change in social and ecological systems by accelerating the rates of interactions and intensifying the links between human activities and Earth’s ecosystems, thereby expanding the scale and influence of human activities on fundamental processes that sustain life. Increasing evidence shows that cities not only alter biodiversity, they change the genetic makeup of many populations, including animals, plants, fungi and microorganisms. Urban-driven rapid evolution in species traits might have significant effects on socially relevant ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling, pollination, water and air purification and food production. Despite increasing evidence that cities are causing rapid evolutionary change, current urban sustainability strategies often overlook these dynamics. The dominant perspectives that guide these strategies are essentially static, focusing on preserving biodiversity in its present state or restoring it to pre-urban conditions. This paper provides a systemic overview of the socio-eco-evolutionary transition associated with global urbanization. Using examples of observed changes in species traits that play a significant role in maintaining ecosystem function and resilience, I propose that these evolutionary changes significantly impact urban sustainability. Incorporating an eco-evolutionary perspective into urban sustainability science and planning is crucial for effectively reimagining the cities of the Anthropocene. [Reimagine modern cities as being not remotely sustainable.]
Social-ecological niche construction for sustainability: understanding destructive processes and exploring regenerative potentials [3]
Abstract
Through the exponential expansion of human activities, humanity has become the driving force of global environmental change. The consequent global sustainability crisis has been described as a result of a uniquely human form of adaptability and niche construction. In this paper, we introduce the concept of social-ecological niche construction focusing on biophysical interactions and outcomes. We use it to address destructive processes and to discuss potential regenerative ones as ways to overcome them. From a niche construction point of view, the increasing disconnections between human activities and environmental feedbacks appear as a success story in the history of human–nature coevolution because they enable humans to expand activities virtually without being limited by environmental constraints. However, it is still poorly understood how suppressed environmental feedbacks affect future generations and other species, or which lock-ins and self-destructive dynamics may unfold in the long-term. This is crucial as the observed escape from natural selection requires growing energy input and represents a temporal deferral rather than an actual liberation from material limitations. Relying on our proposal, we conclude that, instead of further taming nature, there is need to explore the potential of how to tame socio-metabolic growth and impact in niche construction processes.
Long-distance social relationships can both undercut and promote local natural resource management [3]
Abstract
The management of large common-pool resources, like fisheries and forests, is more difficult when more people and more communities can access them — a particular problem given increased population sizes, higher mobility and globalized trade in the Anthropocene. Social relationships spanning communities, such as kin relationships, business or trade relationships and friendships, can make management even more challenging by facilitating and transmitting norms of overharvesting. However, these long-distance relationships can also bolster management by transmitting norms for sustainability, promoting interdependence and laying the groundwork for nested management systems. Here, we review the negative and positive impacts of long-distance relationships on local natural resource management (NRM), providing illustrative examples from our field research on forest and fisheries management in Tanzania. Drawing on the evolutionary literature, the development literature and our field data, we offer suggestions for how development partners can avoid the pitfalls of long-distance relationships and how they can use or even deliberately foster long-distance relationships to promote successful local NRM.
Continuities and discontinuities in the cultural evolution of global consciousness [11]
Abstract
Global consciousness (GC) [as distinct from… culture?], encompassing cosmopolitan orientation, global orientations (i.e. openness to multicultural experiences) and identification with all humanity, is a relatively stable individual difference that is strongly associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, less ingroup favouritism and prejudice, and greater pandemic prevention safety behaviours. Little is known about how it is socialized in everyday life. Using stratified samples from six societies, socializing institution factors correlating positively with GC were education, white collar work (and its higher income) and religiosity. However, GC also decreased with increasing age, contradicting a ‘wisdom of elders’ transmission of social learning, and not replicating typical findings that general prosociality increases with age. Longitudinal findings were that empathy-building, network-enhancing elements like getting married or welcoming a new infant, increased GC the most across a three-month interval. Instrumental gains like receiving a promotion (or getting a better job) also showed positive effects. Less intuitively, death of a close-other enhanced rather than reduced GC. Perhaps this was achieved through the ritualized management of meaning where a sense of the smallness of self is associated with growth of empathy for the human condition, as a more discontinuous or opportunistic form of culture-based learning. [Human centric thinking is too limited, but humans are a subsystem of the Gaian system.]
PART III: FUTURE — ANTHROPOCENE TRANSITIONS AND EVOLVABILITY FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Articles:
Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions [3]
Abstract
We propose that the global environmental crises of the Anthropocene are the outcome of a ratcheting process in long-term human evolution which has favoured groups of increased size and greater environmental exploitation. To explore this hypothesis, we review the changes in the human ecological niche. Evidence indicates the growth of the human niche has been facilitated by group-level cultural traits for environmental control. Following this logic, sustaining the biosphere under intense human use will probably require global cultural traits, including legal and technical systems. We investigate the conditions for the evolution of global cultural traits. We estimate that our species does not exhibit adequate population structure to evolve these traits. Our analysis suggests that characteristic patterns of human group-level cultural evolution created the Anthropocene and will work against global collective solutions to the environmental challenges it poses. We illustrate the implications of this theory with alternative evolutionary paths for humanity. We conclude that our species must alter longstanding patterns of cultural evolution to avoid environmental disaster and escalating between-group competition. We propose an applied research and policy programme with the goal of avoiding these outcomes.
The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social–ecological transformations [1]
Abstract
Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes — the Anthropocene condition — is not new. From food-producing hunter–gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social–ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of ‘runaway sociocultural niche construction’. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth’s most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries.
Green preferences sustain greenwashing: challenges in the cultural transition to a sustainable future [3]
Abstract
Discussions of the environmental impact that revolve around monetary incentives and other easy-to-measure factors are important, but they neglect culture. Pro-environmental values will be crucial when facing sustainability challenges in the Anthropocene, and demand among green consumers is arguably critical to incentivise sustainable production. However, owing to asymmetric information, consumers might not know whether the premium they pay for green production is well-spent. Reliable monitoring of manufacturers is meant to solve this problem. To see how this might work, we develop and analyse a game theoretic model of a simple buyer–seller exchange with asymmetric information, and our analysis shows that greenwashing can exist exactly because reliable monitoring co-exists with unreliable monitoring. More broadly, promoting pro-environmental values among consumers might even amplify the problem at times because a manufacturer with significant market power can exploit both consumer preferences for sustainability and trustworthy monitoring to gouge prices and in extreme cases green wash in plain sight. We discuss several strategies to address this problem. Promoting accurate beliefs and a large-scale behavioural change based on pro-environmental values might be necessary for a rapid transition to a sustainable future, but recent evidence from the cultural evolution literature highlights many important challenges.
Reducing global inequality increases local cooperation: a simple model of group selection with a global externality [3]
Abstract
Group-structured models often explain the evolution of prosocial activities in terms of selection acting at both individual and group levels. Such models do not typically consider how individuals’ behaviours may have consequences beyond the boundaries of their groups. However, many behaviours affect global environmental variables, including climate change and ecosystem fragility. Against this background, we propose a simple model of multi-level selection in the presence of global externalities. In our model, group members can cooperate in a social dilemma with the potential for group-level benefits. The actions of cooperators also have global consequences, which can be positive (a global good) or negative (a global bad). We use simulations to consider scenarios in which the effects of the global externality either are evenly distributed, or have stronger influences on either the rich or the poor. We find that the global externality promotes the evolution of cooperation only if it either disproportionately benefits the poor or disproportionately reduces the payoffs of the rich. If the global externality primarily harms the poor, it undermines the evolution of prosocial behaviour. Understanding this effect is important given concerns that poorer households are more vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Integrating evolutionary theory and social–ecological systems research to address the sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene [11]
Abstract
The rapid, human-induced changes in the Earth system during the Anthropocene present humanity with critical sustainability challenges. Social–ecological systems (SES) research provides multiple approaches for understanding the complex interactions between humans, social systems, and environments and how we might direct them towards healthier and more resilient futures. However, general theories of SES change have yet to be fully developed. Formal evolutionary theory has been applied as a dynamic theory of change of complex phenomena in biology and the social sciences, but rarely in SES research. In this paper, we explore the connections between both fields, hoping to foster collaboration. After sketching out the distinct intellectual traditions of SES research and evolutionary theory, we map some of their terminological and theoretical connections. We then provide examples of how evolutionary theory might be incorporated into SES research through the use of systems mapping to identify evolutionary processes in SES, the application of concepts from evolutionary developmental biology to understand the connections between systems changes and evolutionary changes, and how evolutionary thinking may help design interventions for beneficial change. Integrating evolutionary theory and SES research can lead to a better understanding of SES changes and positive interventions for a more sustainable Anthropocene.
