The dark horse
Unlike the black swan, which has caught our collective attention only in the recent past, the dark horse has been in our collective conscience for a long time. It has been with us for so long that most people do not consciously think or talk about it anymore. This is also precisely the reason why it is called a dark horse. Unlike the black swan, which you cannot go looking for (because then it is not a black swan anymore), one can consciously search for dark horses. How do we look for dark horses? Let us look at business, sports and politics for inspiration.
Investors are good at spotting dark horses, the likes of Warren Buffet are good at spotting public and private business that have proven business chops. These are great businesses but have somehow escaped popular mindshare and have slipped into darkness either by their own choice or circumstances. The spotting of a dark horse doesn’t make it a dark horse, its when people like Warren Buffet put their skin in the dark horse’s game and only after the horse wins spectacularly, it is known as a dark horse.
Talent scouts in sports or politics are the Warren Buffets in their own right. The successful ones have an uncanny ability to spot talent before it flowers. However, in case of talent scouts, it is really the scout’s reputation at stake, beyond that they do not have any skin in the game. However, that doesn’t discount their skill in spotting the dark horse.
Dark horses are hard to spot because of the following characteristics:
1. Unassuming exterior: The dark horse often has an unassuming, modest exterior that belies its true potential. As Benjamin Disraeli writes in “The Young Duke,” “A dark horse, which had never been thought of, rushed past the grandstand in sweeping triumph.”
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2. Hidden depths: The dark horse may have hidden depths that are only revealed gradually over time. In “Great Expectations,” Charles Dickens describes the character of Abel Magwitch as a dark horse who is “an immensely rich and powerful person who had been unknown to [the protagonist] until he revealed himself.”
3. Mysteriousness: The dark horse may also have an air of mystery or unpredictability about them, which adds to their allure. In his books, “Sir Arthur Conan Doyle often describes the character of Sherlock Holmes as a dark horse who is “a man of no particular age, with hidden talents and interests, such as his expertise in boxing and swordfighting, his knowledge of obscure facts and trivia, which aids his ability to solve seemingly impossible mysteries.”
However, what makes them truly a dark horse is the “unexpected success”. The dark horse is often underestimated by others, but manages to achieve great success in the end.
Even if one looks for characteristics mentioned earlier, it does not make a dark horse, its only when they win!! Only winners can be dark horses. Now there are winners that were expected to win (let us call them light horses) and there are winners that weren’t expected to win, because of the above-mentioned characteristics. Why would anyone want to be dark horse? If being a dark horse lowers your potential to be spotted, why would anyone feign it? Naturally most of us lie somewhere in the spectrum whose ends are light horse and dark horse. So, people naturally closer to the light end of spectrum want to come across as lighter. It is only those who truly don’t want to put energy in their looks stay dark. This attitude relieves the dark horse from fringe activities and lets them focus on things that matter the most.
Why do people like Warren Buffet, go looking for dark horses and invest in them? because it is a good investment and returns are awesome. In contrast, the investment in light horses has lesser return, because one has to compete with other investors, who are obviously enchanted with the light horses.
In US politics, John Fetterman can be considered as a dark horse, he shows all the characteristics mentioned above and has won a US senate race. He can still be a dark horse because he still has all the characteristics and potential for higher office. Now one can consider Joan Williams, the journalist, as a talent scout. If you read her article , you can see the kind of passion and analysis that skips our regular eyes and minds which is required to be a successful talent scout. But does Fetterman have the intention and talent required for higher office? Intention and talent is a pre-requisite for a dark-horse.
So, the question my friends is, what is your talent and what is your intent? Do you have what it takes to be a dark horse ?
