TL Emergency Update #2
So here’s the thing about the Emergency Declaration… Stuff isn’t changing much.
There are precisely the same number of Neighborhood incidents as in the 4-week block of our last update, and seven fewer violent incidents. Despite a lack of dramatic movement, the violent incidents may actual presage a downward trend, as displayed by the purple QRI line above. There is a dip in assaults in the TL, possibly affected by an uptick in Urban Alchemy or SFPD patrols, but the dip is gradual, and may be a result of some violent migration to other neighborhoods.
Is Violence Migrating?
Hayes Valley looks as if it’s getting a good amount of violent spillage. Last update, we saw a 150% spike in violence in Hayes Valley, though from a very low base of 10 incidents. We’re now seeing another month of violent increase, this time a 42% increase to 17 violent incidents. Two data points is a trend, though a shaky one.
Get Ask Scout’s stories in your inbox
Join Medium for free to get updates from this writer.
When looked at for the full year, violence is up 7%, but appears to be decreasing from a higher peak at the end of the summer, before the start of school. While causality is difficult to establish, a rise in violence while school is still in session is not a good omen.
Last update, we saw a violent spike of 100% in Western Addition. While this time we saw only a 4% spike, it appears as if the violent increase is sticking.
And while last update we saw a frightening 250% spike in weapons offenses, weapons have gone back down to low levels this month. Thank goodness. Unfortunately, we’ve seen a massive spike in vandalism in Western Addition that has gone from nine incidents to 17. So, not a plague, but something to watch, as vandalism left unchecked tends to metastasize into something more serious.
So what do we draw from this month’s update on the TL Emergency Declaration? If something is changing, it’s not dramatic. If something is moving, it’s mostly violence to Hayes Valley. But truthfully, not much is changing.
Our hypothesis for a successful change in the TL, proposed in our first post on the subject, was an increase in numbers in the TL as enforcement was applied, followed by a gradual decrease as the criminal culture adapted and street violations decreased. That is not happening.
This Declaration is designed to last just one more month. Unless there is an actual application of enforcement, I’m afraid the Declaration will be a failure.
Want this intel on your phone?
For iPhone: https://apps.apple.com/app/askscout/id1611040474
For Apple Watch: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/askscout-for-watchos/id1611145461
AskScout™ — Prepare for safety as you do for the weather.
AskScout turns your phone into a digital safety analyst, ensuring you, your family, and your employees have the intelligence they need to stay safe wherever opportunity takes them. For more information, visit askscout.com.
