Valued at 32x. Acquired at 3x | Backswing Ventures
By Kyle Asman, Founder & Managing Partner, and Audrey Haugh, Principal, Backswing Ventures
Helsing just raised $1.8 billion at an $18 billion valuation-roughly 32x projected 2026 revenue, according to the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, actual defense M&A is closing at a median of 2.8x revenue.
That gap is the story of defense tech right now. Capital is flowing in, valuations are climbing, and companies are raising bigger rounds at bigger multiples. But the valuation a company can raise at isn’t necessarily the valuation it can exit at.
At Backswing Ventures, a defense venture capital firm, we value companies based on what they’ve built today-not what they might become in five years.
Here’s why.
Venture investors and eventual acquirers underwrite businesses differently. A venture investor can pay for future growth. A strategic or financial buyer has to make the economics work on revenue, margins, contracts, backlog, growth, and the capital required to get to the next stage.
Private defense valuations have surged across the board. PitchBook reports that median pre-money valuations for defense tech startups nearly doubled, from $61 million in 2024 to $115 million in 2025, while median deal sizes doubled from $10 million to $20 million.
Those valuations may prove justified if the businesses grow into them. But that’s the bet.
Actual M&A tells a different story. Clairfield International’s 2025 Defense Technology Report found a median 2.8x EV/revenue multiple across recent defense tech transactions. Public defense tech companies trade similarly-Chartwell’s March 2025 analysis put the median at 2.2x EV/revenue.
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These aren’t the “right” multiples for every company. Strong technology, margins, backlog, or strategic value can command a premium. But they show the gap between raising capital and selling a business.
BlackSea Technologies makes the point concretely. AEVEX agreed to acquire BlackSea for up to $650 million. With BlackSea expected to generate roughly $150 million in FY2026 revenue, that’s about 4.3x revenue, alongside proven maritime platforms, real production capacity, and multi-year contract visibility. It’s a real, executed deal priced on fundamentals, not a future story.
The point isn’t that BlackSea was over- or undervalued. It’s that acquirers evaluate the business in front of them and price it on the economics.
That discipline matters in today’s hype cycle. Too many companies are raising on the business they want to become rather than the one they are. A large TAM, government interest, marquee investors, and a great pitch all create value-but eventually, revenue has to back up the story.
If a company raises at 15x revenue and grows into it, everyone wins. If revenue doesn’t keep pace, the next investor has to decide whether to underwrite another aggressive story or reset the valuation. We explored this topic in greater detail in our recent post: The Hidden Risk of Raising Capital in a Defense Hype Cycle.
In a more disciplined market, we expect more resets.
As Kyle Asman, Founder and Managing Partner of Backswing Ventures, puts it: “The cap table doesn’t validate the valuation. Revenue does.”
That’s also why we’ve been active in secondary transactions-when a company has created real value, but its private mark has outrun its fundamentals, secondary liquidity lets investors realize value without waiting to see if that mark translates into an exit.
We remain highly bullish on defense technology. But the companies that create the most lasting value won’t be the ones that raised at the highest multiples-they’ll be the ones that consistently turn capital into revenue, contracts, production capacity, and durable businesses.
Build the business. The valuation will follow.
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