5 NFL Team Overs That Will Cash
It’s too soon to know who will win every division, or even make the playoffs. That can wait until the draft has taken place and every roster is more developed.
But the league has already split into good teams and bad teams. And vibes alone can tell us who will win more games than the bookmakers expect.
Titans over 6.5
Robert Saleh is at the peak of his coaching power. Dragging a 49ers defense shorn of 16 players at various times of the season is quite something. When three of the players missing were Mykel Williams, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, it’s borderline miraculous.
Having said that, Saleh is going to need all his motivational skills and tactical nous to resuscitate the Titans’ defense. Tennessee ranked 23rd for the number of passing touchdowns they conceded (30) and 28th for the number of rushing touchdowns (21)!
While there have to be some questions about an ownership group that allowed the Brian Callahan experiment to last as long as it did, their approach during the off-season seems to highlight just how committed they are to fixing the franchise.
25 new faces arrived in free agency! They even went out and spent money on a new punter. Tommy Hunter booted a 73-yarder last season and ranked sixth for net punt yards.
On the defensive side of the ball, six new defensive linemen arrive in Nashville. John Franklin-Meyers might be the most underrated player in the league, but Saleh knows that because they worked together in NYC. Franklin-Meyers isn’t the only former Jet to take their talents to land in Music City.
Solomon Thomas (via trade), Jacob Martin and Jermaine Johnson (via trade) also played on Saleh’s defensive line for Gang Green. That’s not all, though. Saleh is really getting the band back together; safety Tony Adams completes the defensive reunification.
Running back Michael Carter, receiver Lance McCutcheon, and offensive lineman Austin Deculus join the Saleh revolution in Tennessee.
The offense is down to Brian Daboll. Daboll has bought Daniel Bellinger and Wan’Dale Robinson with him from the blue half of New York.
The chances of Daboll turning Cam Ward into Josh Allen 2.0 might be pretty small, but Ward flashed serious talent and trended upward after Callahan was jettisoned.
After the rookie QB completed 63% of his passes and threw six touchdowns with no interceptions, Mike McCoy was unfortunate not to keep his head coaching job.
Even if the Titans struggle as the new coaching team and a lot of new players bed in, they only need to win seven games to make money.
They get to play the Michael Pittman Jr.-less Colts twice, a Matt Eberflus Cowboys team, a Jaguars team that lost Travis Etienne, the Jets, Browns, Giants and an Eagles team who look to be changing their offense to something much less Jalen Hurts-friendly.
Saleh’s defense will keep the Titans in a lot of games this year; Daboll’s offense just needs to play error-free football.
Panthers over 6.5
If the 2025 version of Devin Lloyd turns up in Carolina this year, he’ll win five games on his own. The Jags had a 12–3 record when he played in 2025. Jacksonville went 1–1 in the two regular-season games he missed.
Carolina won the AFC South title last season, but they ended the season with a losing 8–9 record! Dave Canales’ team really struggled to score touchdowns, ranking 19th for scoring passing touchdowns and 27th for rushing touchdowns.
Three new offensive linemen have arrived in free agency, and John Metchie III will add some speed to a receiving corps that caught 62% of their targets in 2025.
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A.J. Dillon also signed in free agency after an uninspiring year in Philadelphia, but with Rico Dowdle leaving, it seems like Chubba Hubbard is set to be the feature back, and that is good news if he stays healthy.
Jaelen Phillips signed a $120 million contract. He will provide a strong right-side linebacking pairing with Lloyd. The offense looks like it’s in transition, and a few additions in the draft should improve that, but the defense only looks to be one or two defensive backs away from being a dominant unit.
Seven wins is a relatively simple goal (especially when they won eight in 2025) when there are two games against the transitioning Falcons and Buccaneers, the Browns, Vikings and the perennial disappointment that is the Bengals.
Commanders over 7.5
Washington had an injury-ravaged, dumpster fire of a 2025 season. There were some reports of friction between coaches and players, which didn’t reflect well on Kliff Kingsbury. He’s in L.A. now, so there shouln’t be a cloud over the franchise in 2026.
The Commanders have invested some serious time and money in their defense during free agency, but it looks like they need to upgrade the offense in the draft.
Six new defensive linemen have arrived, and they now have 17 defensive linemen in total! Odafe Oweh made 7.5 sacks for the Chargers last season, K’Lavon Chaisson made 7.5 in New England, plus Jer’Zhan Newton, Dorrance Armstrong and Daron Payne combined for 13.5 last season.
There are four new defensive backs, too, including Akhello Witherspoon and Nick Cross.
All of those additions should make Daronte Jones’ first go-round as an NFL defensive coordinator slightly easier, but Dan Quinn will need to watch over him.
Jones was the Vikings' defensive backs coach in Minnesota last year. That Minnesota defense ranked second for passing yards allowed, but no defense faced fewer passing attempts because their run defense was so poor.
In a division where the Giants have a new coaching team, the Eagles seem to be facing a quarterback conundrum, especially if Jalen Hurts refuses to adapt his style of play, and the Cowboys are gonna Cowboy (cos they always do). The Commanders don’t need to have a Sean McVay offense to win seven games against those opponents.
Washington will need to either strengthen their offensive line or find a dominant running back (hello Jeremiyah Love) to create an elite offense, but Jalen Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Luke McCaffrey and Rachaad White are the basis of an explosive passing offense and any team that can put up points quickly will be dangerous.
Saints over 5.5
The NFC South really is wild. The Saints could make six wins just by beating everyone else in the division!
They probably won’t sweep all of their divisional rivals, but they get to play the Browns, Bengals, Cardinals, Vikings and Giants. All of those teams are one or two injuries away from being absolutely terrible.
The 2025 Saints had the 13th-best passing offense in the league, but the run game lagged behind. The addition of Travis Etienne will fix that. Etienne scored a career high 13 touchdowns in 2025 and racked up 1,107 yards on the ground!
New Orleans’ defense ranked 6th for rushing touchdowns conceded and 14th for passing touchdowns allowed. They do need to add a few pieces in the draft, but it’s difficult to understand why their over/under is so low.
Bears over 9.5
Caleb Williams might have a weird obsession with being called “ice man”, but he’s a gamer. For a guy who put up some bang average numbers, he sure can win a game of football.
Da Bears haven’t made many changes to the offense in the offseason. D.J. Moore and his hefty contract have left for the Bills, and Kalif Raymond arrived. But that doesn’t really matter when Colston Loveland is in the building. And you just know that the team that drafted Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III can uncover some equally talented receivers in this draft class.
The defense sees seven new faces arrive, and they all fall into the “low-key superstar” category. Linebacker Jack Sanborn starts the season way down the depth chart, but he’s returning to Chicago after a one-year stop in Dallas.
Safety Coby Bryant is fresh off winning a Super Bowl, and Devin Bush and Kentavius Street bring a combined 14 years of NFL experience with them. Ryan Poles will be looking to strengthen the defense even more in the draft, but they should easily win 10 games this year.
