Fate vs. Patterns

Patterns exist in most martial arts.

If you watch any sort of martial arts competition, you’ll see them, even in modern MMA. Fate has something to do with who wins, but the patterns are still there if you know what to watch for.

Justin Gaethje is one of my favorite fighters.

I’ve been following him since his time at “World Series of Fighting” (WSOF, which became the PFL). He was their lightweight champion and left as the champion when he entered the UFC.

I’ve taken a lot of notes on him. ( Want a notebook for fights? Get it 👉 here. )

When he came to the UFC, he faced Michael Johnson.

Johnson dismissed him because of where he was coming from, and he was an underdog in that fight.

Gaethje won by 2nd-round TKO.

It’s a pattern that would follow him throughout his UFC career when you look at his time there.

Gaethje’s underdog record matters when you see oddsmakers put him as one. In eight of his fights (all in the UFC), Gaethje has an 8–3 record as a betting underdog across 11 UFC bouts (from 2017 onward).

His underdog wins are:

His underdog losses were to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, and Dustin Poirier (first fight).