BLACK FALCON MISSIVE:
The Major Issues in the Recent Election: Perception, Reality — a Clear Disconnect?
Regular readers of the Ye Olde Black Falcon Missive may have noticed Your Scribe has been on a bit of a sabbatical. Perhaps we can chalk it up to writer’s block. We’ll let you, the jury, decide on whether said block has been overcome.
But now ……. after more than a few years ….. a pandemic …… five new releases of music by Taylor Swift…. four Olympiads ….. and zero New York Yankees World Series titles …… make no mistake about it ……. The Black Falcon Missive ……… IS BAAAAAACKKK!!!!
(Scene: dusting cobwebs off keyboard) On the assumption you’re not relying on this spunky messaging medium as your news source, you may’ve heard there was an election last week in the Ol’ U. S. of A. If reporting is correct, the major issues for voters in 2024 were: the state of the US economy, crime, and illegal immigration.
So, if those were the issues on voters’ minds, it may be time well spent to examine how perceptions on those issues align with reality.
The Economy:
Perception: The economy is bad. Inflation is out of control. Specifically, according to exit polls last week, 68% of respondents said the economy is ‘not good or poor’ in 2024, versus 50% of respondents in 2020 (source: CNN).
Data: Let’s examine the standard benchmark of economic activity, growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Below is US real GDP growth from 1990-present:
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note that over the past 20 years or so, excepting the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID Pandemic, US GDP has reverted to a mean between 2–3%.
Your Scribe is one who generally gives neither credit nor blame to a single person — the US President — for the economic activity of 330 million people. That being said, the electorate evidently does, so let’s highlight three recent periods:
January 2014-December 2016 (the last 3 years of President Obama’s 2nd term):
Avg GDP = 2.3%
Real Wage Growth: 1.3%
January 2017-December 2019 (the first 3, pre-pandemic, years of President Trump’s term):
Avg GDP: 2.4%
Real Wage Growth: 1.2%
January 2022-September 2024: (the last 3 years, to date, of President Biden’s term. 2021 has been taken out as the bounce back from COVID arguably inflates the data):
Avg GDP: 2.4%
Real Wage Growth: 1.5%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BEA
Below is the US unemployment rate from 1990 to present:
Source: BLS
Note, that between 2016 and the present, with the exception of the COVID period of 2020–21, US employment has been remarkably full, with the unemployment rate slightly above or below 4%.
Coming out of the Pandemic, inflation became an issue across the world. Unprecedently broad global supply chain disruptions and stimulative monetary and fiscal policies would be the primary culprits, in the view of Your Scribe. Below is a chart of the peak and subsequent decrease of inflation in the US:
Source: BLS
Over the past 30 years, the US Federal Reserve, in its dual mission of achieving full employment and stable prices, has had targets for inflation ranging between 2%-3%. Inflation has been 3% or below since June 2024. (As an aside, if voters think ‘beating inflation’ means the level of prices will revert to where they were, they’re misinformed. That would be deflation, which is not good. See: The Great Depression)
So, as voters went to the polls last week — feeling the economy of 2024 was significantly worse than in 2020 — let’s examine a few ‘in the moment’ measures:
GDP (January-September): 2024 = 2.6% 2020 = -9.0%
Unemployment Rate (October): 2024 = 4.1% 2020 = 6.9%
Real Wage Growth (January-October): 2024 = 1.4% 2020 = -1.0%
To be fair, the election of 2020 was mid-Pandemic, but somehow in that trying time voters felt better about the economy than they do now — an economy The Economist hails as the envy of the world: America’s Economy is Bigger and Better Than Ever
Reality: An individual’s personal experience can, of course, differ from the broader trends. But that dynamic is consistent over time. It’s difficult to square the voters’ perception of economic conditions with reality.
Crime:
Perception: America is suffering from an unprecedented crime wave and it’s only getting worse. Particularly in large cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.
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Data:
The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) office defines violent crime as any of the following offenses, whether attempted or completed: murder, rape or sexual assault, robbery, and assault.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
Violent crime decreased steadily throughout the 1990’s, and since around 2011 has settled at roughly half the rate of the early 1990’s. It was lowest in 2014, with a 10% jump during the Pandemic.
Crime in Urban America:
New Orleans had the most murders per capita (with 58.4 per 100,000 people) followed by St. Louis, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Memphis.
None of the five largest cities make the Top 15. Chicago was #17, Los Angeles clocked in at #41 and New York City had the lowest rate of the 60 largest US cities.
Source: Centers for Disease Control (2022 most recent year)
Thus far in 2024, violent crime has decreased 15.2% year-over-year in the first quarter, 10.3% in the second and 15.2% in the third quarter. (source: www.fbi.gov)
Reality: violent crime overall has largely plateaued over the past 13 years (excluding the Pandemic), the largest cities have lower crime rates than their smaller peers, and crime in the first three quarters of 2024 has dropped significantly.
Illegal Immigration:
Perception: There has been an unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants entering and staying in the US, primarily from the southern border with Mexico.
Data:
Given the nature of the issue, accurate data on illegal immigrants, their movements and whereabouts are difficult to obtain. That being said, methods to track the data have been consistent over time.
Sources: US Border Patrol, Department of Homeland Security
As you can see, the 1990’s experienced a steep rise in the population of illegal immigrants, the number peaked at 12.2 million in 2007, and has plateaued between 10.5–11 million over the past 10 years.
Recent reports suggest an increased flow of undocumented immigrants crossing the southern border, but the population has remained relatively stable. This dichotomy can largely be reconciled by a significant increase in the number of deportations:
Source: DHS
As for the impact of illegal immigration on crime, the crime rate for undocumented immigrants in the U.S. is actually lower per capita than for native-born citizens. Studies have shown that undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes, and at a quarter the rate for property crimes. (source: www.nij.ojp.gov). Your Scribe has not been able to find a study contradicting these findings.
Reality: The data suggests the number of illegal immigrants residing in the US, after a surge 30 years ago, has largely stabilized over the past 15 years. And that these undocumented immigrants have a lower crime rate than natural born citizens and legal immigrants.
The Political-Entertainment-Media-Industrial Complex
So, there’s a clear disconnect between perception and the apparent reality. What gives?
How does misperception of the truth become an actionable norm? You can chalk it up in part to the relative effectiveness of the two US political parties on messaging. Pols clearly have a professional interest in creating their own version of reality for the electorate. However, Your Scribe would argue, a better explanation is the capitalist construct of the political-entertainment-‘news’-industrial complex.
A generation or more ago, the primary sources of information for most Americans were the morning paper and the evening news. These outlets were staffed by professional reporters, who in good faith (generally) upheld journalistic standards to report a verified reality. ‘Tried’ being the operative word, but these professionals conducted dogged investigations to ferret out the facts to report the truth. If they erred, there was accountability and professional shame. Accountability and shame. Ahhhh, how quaint…..
The morning paper/evening news routine was first overtaken by the 24-hour cable news networks. Which wouldn’t be a bad thing if these outlets did, in fact, objectively deliver the news. Alas, capitalism dictates a need to have the viewers tuned in to be sold advertising. And some days, let’s be honest, the news can be boring. So, they need to spice it up a bit. The conclusion: selling fear and hate is ‘gonna keep them eyeballs glued to the screen’.
Over the past 10–15 years social media has joined the party in feeding ‘news’ to their customers. Depending on someone’s predilections, the algorithms will deliver posts to ensure their prey keep phone in hand, engaged and scrolling. An inadvertent click can send someone down an unintended, self-reinforcing rabbit hole. And, of course, prominent in that feed are ads, ads, and more ads.
Now, to sell fear and hate, you need an antagonist, and politics presents an easy foil. Just choose a side to demonize and report on it 24/7. And with captive eyeballs, a distorted reality can be hatched.
And, as any addict can tell you, once hooked you need more frequent and more extreme ‘hits’. So, a sober reporting of actual news just won’t do. Too boring. Better to ratchet up the misinformation on preferred issues, with fear being the cherry on top.
One of the new ‘information’ ploys, for both cable news and social media, is to take a seed of truth and create an orchard of misinformation. Or, better yet, just make something up. It’s proven super-effective on keeping hands off the remote control, in one instance, and clicking away on the other.
This cable news/social media political- entertainment-complex has certainly proven to be a booming business model. Stoking fear and anger clearly works to keep people around to be fed ads for reverse mortgages, pillows and such.
And propaganda works. Historical examples abound. During the Cold War, citizens of the Soviet Union were fed a story of the US as nothing but a corrupt, imperialistic country with a failing economy and inept military. With the collapse of the USSR 35 years ago, they were unnerved to find out the US (and the West at large) was free, vibrant, independent, and economically/militarily robust. Fast forward, and the citizenry of the US — the most advanced country in the course of human history — chooses to consume its own version of a Soviet-resonant propaganda apparatus.
The upshot: the cable news/social media ecosystem has created a fog of misperception on the economy, crime and immigration, fomenting fear and anger in the process. All while trends on each of those issues have been reasonably static for 12+ years. Me thinks we’ve been played….
Not one to identify a problem and then not try to rectify it, Your Scribe and The Scribe Bride (The Lovely Maureen) have vowed to go on a strict cable news diet (perhaps a fast?). We limit any cable news to a few minutes at most during the day. Unless there’s literally ‘breaking’ news, our prime TV news source is now the PBS News Hour. Each day, it covers numerous different stories. Refreshingly, it’s not exclusively politics. No series of paid cable news pundits/provocateurs aggrandizing over the 2–3 topics breathlessly discussed 24/7. If I’m being honest, it can get a little boring, and I’m tempted to turn it off before the end. The news can be like that.
Hopefully, Your Scribe won’t need a reverse mortgage or pillow any time soon. He may find himself woefully uninformed.
So, there you have it. If nothing else, this Missive may give you some fun talking points for Thanksgiving dinner….
Craig Gile
November 13, 2024
