Is It Too Soon For Another IndyRef?
Today, the Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish government would be unable to pursue another independence referendum without the UK government’s approval. This is a new blow for the independence movement, who have been holding out hopes for a referendum planned by Nicola Sturgeon to take place on October 19th, 2023.
The possibility of a new independence referendum has been the focus of the Scottish government for quite some time now. In response, they have faced serious and prolonged pushback from the UK government, who feel that it is too soon since the first referendum. The UK government is also quite unwilling to risk Scotland acceding from the Union, and recent polling numbers don’t give them strong indication of it being a risk worth taking. The 2014 Independence Referendum showed strong support for independence, but in the end marginally stronger opposition. Polling data shows support for independence has risen since the last referendum, and voters are now more evenly split. This raises the question which Holyrood has been asking; has the political environment shifted enough in the past eight years to justify once again putting the question of independence to the Scottish people?
The 2014 Referendum was the most fiercely divided Scotland has been in recent years. Both sides were vehemently opposed and entirely irreconcilable in their viewpoints. On the side of independence were voters who felt Scotland had been governed for too long by the UK Parliament, far removed geographically in Westminster. They felt that Scotland’s political, economic and cultural future was best left in the hands of an independent Scottish government. Opposed to this idea were those who felt that Scotland was stronger as part of the Union and that Scotland’s future was too uncertain if it was to become independent and self-governed. In the end, those opposed to independence won the vote with 55% voting against on polling day.
The 45% of voters for independence have continued to advocate for their cause and believe now that the political and social conditions in the UK have changed such that another vote is merited. Indeed, the past eight years have been eventful ones in UK political life. The rise of the Brexit movement and subsequent vote to leave the EU have had a particularly large impact on the appeal of Independence to some voters, especially given the overwhelming numbers Scotland voted in to remain a part of the EU. This is one of many issues where the political differences based in contrasting culture and sensibilities come to light, showing strong division North and South of the border.
The current instability within the UK government is also a cause for concern among independence voters. While in Westminster, there have been five changes in Prime Minister since the previous Independence Referendum, in Holyrood, Scotland’s First Minister has changed just once. This would appear to indicate far greater volatility in the UK political environment than in Scotland, which gives contest to the idea that being part of the Union would assure stability for Scotland, at least in political terms. Equally concerning for residents of Scotland are comments such as those made by Liz Truss, showing little interest in engaging with Scotland’s devolved parliamentary system. During the first of two Conservative leadership races in 2022, Truss stated her view that the best way to deal with Nicola Sturgeon and her calls for IndyRef2 was to ignore her. Reports have it that during her time in office, she kept her word on this. She is claimed to have had no formal contact with Sturgeon, and there have been no indications if she made informal contact either.
It seems that, as Liz Truss did explicitly address, the unwritten policy in Westminster for dealing with the stirring independence movement is to simply not engage. This isn’t surprising; governing through the 2014 referendum was famously stressful for David Cameron, who was heard to complain of stomach ulcers in the aftermath. In ignoring it, they can hope to avoid what some have claimed was Cameron’s fatal error – gambling on the 2016 EU Referendum to put a conclusive end to the issue. They also risk stoking the flame of Scottish discontentment and creating a more incendiary political environment North of the border by having the public go through a second round of campaigning and debate. Fundamentally this is why the impasse between Scotland and the UK Government will unlikely be resolved in the immediate future. Scotland’s government remains steadfastly focused on this issue and the UK government remains equally determined to not give it credibility by engaging.
What little they do say is in reference to the time which has elapsed since the previous vote, referred to frequently as once in a generation. While eight years is certainly not a generation, it is a long time in politics. Just six weeks can be a long time in politics, as Liz Truss might attest. It would stand to reason that the sands of UK politics have shifted in the past eight years, and that the environment we look at now is very dissimilar to how it appeared in 2014. There is merit to the notion that the earlier vote took place under a very different set of circumstances, and that the same assurances which persuaded voters to vote against the independence question could not as well be made today.
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However, the political environment is nothing if not dynamic. It will continue to shift, transform and evolve in the decades to come, and possibly such that the UK as a whole is further from Scotland’s unique national values and cultural identity. It is worth posing the question of what if Westminster does agree to a second referendum on October 19th of next year, and there is once again a defeat of the campaign for Yes. Would this be a blow for the independence movement or would it be a definitive end for the independence movement as it currently exists?
We know from polling data that the numbers for and against independence are difficult to call. If the Scottish public are asked to go once again to the polling stations within the coming year, it would be reasonable to predict that no side will win by a sizeable margin. The 45/55 split in 2014 managed to avoid this problem by showing that although both sides had strong support, there was a decisive majority who were against independence. In recent polls by Panelbase (October 10th 2022) and YouGov (October 4th 2022), support for independence ranged between 50% (Panelbase) and 49% (YouGov). Opposition varied marginally from 50% (Panelbase) to 51% (YouGov). At these numbers, it would be an incredibly close run campaign, and likely very emotive and contested. Both sides would have everything to gain and every effort could make the crucial difference in the end.
On a subject such as this, as well, passions can run incredibly high. People stake a lot in their national identity; they use it to define who they are and what their place is in the world. While a question such as this is purportedly one of governance, debates over identity and self are inextricably tied into it. While any independence referendum on the face of it will ask, “do you want to be governed partially by a small parliament in Holyrood and a larger parliament in Westminster, or do you want to be governed entirely by a small government in Holyrood?”, to many people, the question may as well be posed as, “do you think of yourself as Scottish or British?”
In the end, the final result of any referendum is likely to be a slim victory or a slim defeat for the independence movement. It is unlikely that either side will be satisfied with the result, which will undoubtedly be less conclusive than the vote on the same question eight years ago. If the UK government is hoping to put the issue to rest, having the vote is unlikely to do so. However, not addressing the question won’t put it to rest either. While support and opposition are roughly 50/50 now, letting the issue rumble on unresolved as the UK government continues to vacillate and conditions continue to worsen is hardly an effective solution. The UK government has constitutional chaos and an ever-worsening economic crisis working against them, and the fullness of time is unlikely to increase support in their favour North of the border.
At this point in time, both sides don’t really have many moves to play. Prolonged stasis can widen the gap, hurting or helping the case for either side. Holding a vote is unlikely to produce a stronger win or loss than in 2014, with both sides guaranteed to be left dissatisfied in the aftermath. Then there are the problems involved with the run-up to the vote as well. Involving the public in another heated campaign will undoubtedly heighten discord and bring the already existing divisions to the forefront. The stability in Scottish politics, often contrasted with the instability in UK politics, in particular since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, could potentially be thrown into disarray. For Nicola Sturgeon herself, managing to secure a referendum but failing to achieve a victory could signal the end of her tenure as leader. Indeed, it did for her predecessor, Alex Salmond, when he failed to secure a win for the yes campaign in 2014. For both sides, the risks of avoiding the issue or of facing it are many.
It should be noted, however, that the question of revisiting a referendum result is not without historical precedent. The EU referendum in 2016 was the second time the public was asked to vote on the UK’s EU membership, with the first referendum being held in 1975. While the UK’s political environment has gone through rapid changes between 2014 and 2022, the 41 year difference between 1975 and 2016 comes far closer to the idea of a “once in a generation vote”. On the other hand, the second referendum only came about because the driving force of Nigel Farage’s UKIP was able to propel the issue onto the national agenda. The SNP, led by Nicola Sturgeon, is quite determined to similarly force the independence question onto the agenda, and strong spokesmanship is hard to be ignored.
While the SNP remains in power in Scotland, and it continues to be under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, the question of Scottish independence is not going to be left to fade from the national consciousness. As much as the UK government would like there to be something more closely resembling the 41 year gap between EU referendums, this is unlikely in the face of Sturgeon’s advocacy for the issue. It may, perhaps, be a better option for them to give a more definitive date for when the issue can be reopened. Far enough that they can hope to govern their way to economic and constitutional stability, increasing support for the Union and widening the gap in their favour, but close enough that the SNP will be disgruntled but not aggrieved.
In any case, as the Supreme Court has ruled today, the question is in Westminster’s hands. For the rest of us, we can only wait and see.
