Bozball Free Agent Evaluation — Josh Bell
Player Snapshot: Josh Bell
- Age at Start of Season: 32
- Position: 1B / DH
- Height: 6'4"
- Weight: 261 lbs
Games Played :
One of the things I like about Josh Bell: he’s out there. Over the last four seasons, Bell has averaged 149 games per year. His size and frame haven’t been major durability concerns so far, but as he gets into his 30s, you wonder how his body will hold up. No injury concerns other than an oblique injury in 2018 that kept him off the field for 10 days. He did play 45 games last season at DH, which I will touch on later.
Defensively :
I am not wowed by Josh Bell’s defense. He is serviceable, at 6’4” he is a big target at first which I like. But unless you are a gold glover or unplayable I care if my 1B bangs.
Offensively :
Since 2021 the numbers have not been trending great. “Park Factors” suggests that hitting in Miami LoanDepot Park is favorable to hitters, but I do not see it when I watch games. The gaps and center play very large, even down the lines feels deep. Those dimensions might help a line drive guy with speed get a few more bases, but for a power guy (20–26%+ Flyball rate) I do not think the dimensions help.
If he re signs in Miami I think his numbers will follow more of the trend line, but if he gets into a more hitter friendly park his slug will benefit. So I increased his slug the next two years and here is how I project Josh Bell’s into his age 32 -34 seasons. Another factor that is tough to gauge how much playing for a losing team and non-hitter friendly park impacts a players performance.
I say this lightly, because if he gets in the right situation I think he could bump that slug up a bit into the low-mid .4’s.
DH/1B Splits : Finding the Edge in Situational Splits
As a baseball nerd, digging into situational splits is like hunting for buried treasure. Most of the time, you find flakes of gold — small insights that are useful but not groundbreaking. But every so often, you stumble across what I like to call a “nerd nugget.”
Take Josh Bell, for example. At first glance, it seems he performs better offensively when playing the field. However, a closer look at the data suggests that his splits are more influenced by the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher. Bell tends to DH against left-handed starters, which means he’s batting right-handed in those situations.
I refer to this as the “Adley Rutschman Paradox,” though it’s more of a vacuous truth than a true paradox. Rutschman’s DH/C splits seem to indicate he’s a better hitter when DHing, but when you dig deeper, you find that he DHs primarily against left-handed pitching, batting exclusively right-handed in those games. This creates a false positive: while the data supports the idea on the surface, it’s an empty conclusion because the conditions to test it across both sides of the plate don’t exist in significant sample sizes. The more plausible takeaway? Rutschman is simply a better hitter right-handed than left-handed. Could the reduced workload of DHing help him focus on hitting? Perhaps, but it’s hard to disentangle that from his natural split advantage.
For Bell, the situation is reversed. His splits at first base (.264/.333/.404/.737) are stronger than his numbers as a DH (.217/.290/.414/.704), suggesting he performs better when playing the field. But again, context matters. Bell DHs primarily against left-handed starters, hitting right-handed in those matchups. A more plausible conclusion is that Bell is simply a more well rounded left-handed hitter than right-handed hitter.
Still, I wanted to dig deeper, especially since first base is traditionally a power position. I am looking for a guy that can bang. So I compared Bell’s HR% splits based on handedness and role:
- HR% vs. LHP: 3.6%
- HR% vs. RHP: 3.39%
- HR% at 1B: 2.90%
- HR% at DH: 5.10%
Interestingly, while his HR% is nearly identical vs. lefties and righties, his power production as a DH is significantly higher than at first base. This brings us back to the Rutschman comparison. While the narrative suggests Bell hits better when playing the field, his elevated HR% as a DH complicates the story.
As you can see, while 2.9%-3.6% are rather pedestrian HR percentages for 1B & DH, 5.10% is an elite number that could catch the eyes of some MLB executives. So I dove a little deeper, so the Bozballers at home don’t have to. Boz is for the people…
Could the increased focus on hitting as a DH contribute to his power numbers? Possibly. Or perhaps his splits simply reflect the quirks of matchups and sample sizes. Either way, Bell remains a fascinating case study for how context and role impact player performance — and a reminder that there’s always more treasure to uncover in baseball’s deep statistical mines.
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Pitch Mix Splits
I don’t love the decreased run value against fastballs & change ups, but the hard hit % is steady so I would not look too far into it.
RISP Splits
As usual this would not be a Bozball recommendation without mentioning RISP. Bell still has a nose for the RBI as shown by his numbers with RISP. I personally like to see that.
RVPG Projection :
Contract Estimate :
OPS, OBP, BA, SLG don’t seem to be trending in a great direction, but his HR % as a DH are trending in the right direction at (4.9–5.4%)…For teams that play homerun ball instead of baseball this is a nice little nerd nugget. Combine that with his flyball rate at an unfriendly hitter park. Bell could be one of the steals of the offseason if he’s in the right situation. It’s not the sexy big name or pick up that will make the fans go crazy, but he could bring some extra pop at DH especially against lefties.
-Bozzy Baseball Blog Out!
For more Bozball Free Agent Evaluations check out :
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Bozball Free Agent Evaluation — Anthony Santander
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