Big 12 Conference: 2023 Season Preview
One P5 conference down, 4 to go this off-season! With it being the first day of May, we are shifting our focus from the ACC to the Big 12. This season marks the first year of being in the P5 for 4 new programs joining the Big 12 in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Meanwhile, Oklahoma and Texas make their farewell tour through the conference this season as they are off to the SEC in the 2024 season. I’m sure the rest of the Big 12 is eager to give them a “proper” send off. Should be fun to watch.
The cup of joe for the day is the Nespresso Odacio. I’ve found that the Nespresso brand pods rarely miss, big fan!
The Big 12 did not shape up as we expected in 2022. If I had told you a Big 12 team would be in the national championship game before the season had started, you would have asked whether it was Texas or Oklahoma. Both opened with +200 or better betting odds to win the Big 12. Where was TCU? 7th at +2800. The eventual champion? 1 spot ahead at +2500. TCU and Kansas State being strong competitors and influencing who makes the CFP was incredibly healthy for the sport. We’ll touch on that more down the road.
Not only was K-State winning the conference a shock, the Big 12’s performance in bowl season was uncommonly bad. The Big 12 went 2–7 including both of TCU’s playoff games. The only two wins being Texas Tech over Ole Miss in the Texas bowl, and TCU over Michigan in the CFP Semifinal.
So how off can we be in our 2023 season predictions for the conference with how un-predictable it is?
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On paper, Texas is likely to come out as the front-runner. Fair when you consider the talent spread throughout that roster. The question as always, can they utilize it? Recent history for the Longhorns says no. TCU and K-State will likely be considered toward the top of the contender list as well with their great seasons in 2022. K-State has Will Howard coming back after getting a significant amount of playing time in the back half of the 2022 season. Howard plays smart football and made a name for himself last season. I expect him to be in the conversation for best QB in the conference when it’s all said and done this season. He’ll have a little more weight on his shoulders with Deuce Vaughn off to the NFL. The entire conference is grateful for that.
While I want to avoid the trap of putting Oklahoma and Texas toward the top of the contention list for the Big 12, it is hard not to when you see the recruits those two programs pull in compared to the rest of the conference. Oklahoma and Texas have each been in the top-15 in recruiting classes nationally in the last 6 years. In 4 of those years, they’ve each been in the top-10. No other Big 12 program can come close to those numbers.
Again, on paper would likely place these two teams as the best. However, there is a reason you play the game. For my contenders, I would have Texas and Kansas State. From there, I would place Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas Tech as my “next up” in that list. I’d be pleasantly surprised to see any other teams end up in Dallas in early December.
The Big 12 has shown talent in recent years. However, it has been clear that they can’t compete on a national stage. In the 9 seasons of the College Football Playoff, only Oklahoma (4 appearances) and TCU (1 appearance) have made it to the playoff with TCU earning the lone victory over Michigan this past season. While they did earn the win, they got annihilated by Georgia in the National Championship 65–7. You can’t deny the level the top teams in the SEC are on. The Big 12 is far from that level as confirmed by the 1–5 playoff record. The good news, it is getting better. For a pre-season unranked TCU team to storm their way to a national championship appearance, there is hope that the Big 12 can compete on a national stage. As long as it is not a top-tier SEC team.
For this season, we won’t get to enjoy the full round-robin schedule where everyone plays everyone with 4 new teams. There are still no divisions, so room for error is minimal and I expect this to be the most competitive we’ve seen the Big 12 in a long time. Texas Tech is on the rise, K-State has momentum, Oklahoma and Texas want to go out with a bang, and 4 new teams are ready to prove they belong in the P5. What is there not to be excited for?
Follow along as we dive into each program throughout the month of May. Happy May Day!
This is where we have placed Big 12 teams in our 2023 preseason Top-25 rankings: Texas (13), Oklahoma (16), Kansas State (17), TCU (24)
