The Trump-Putin Oil “Deal”
(3 will get you 130)
Attribution: This analysis was done by Rick Allan, my well-respected colleague at BBN Technologies. His analytic insights informed several DARPA and Office of Naval Research programs. His insights into the transacton-oriented POTUS and his most current “big deal” are here.
The “deal”
The President prides himself on being first and foremost a businessman – the ability to make “deals” as opposed to following past, worn-out political practices. This change made him attractive to those who voted for him: the promise of something new as opposed to the same old same old workings of Washington. As such, it is hard to understand this recent oil “deal” with Putin. On the face of it, it looks like a good deal – 300,000 tons of oil for $210 million. Breaking it down however, tells a much different story. 300,000 tons equates to 2 million barrels of oil. The United States imports 7 million barrels – a day – to feed our energy needs. Most of those imported barrels come from Canada and Mexico, only 700,000 barrels come from countries using the Strait of Hormuz for shipment. By offering us 2 million barrels, the Russians are giving us roughly a 3 day supply of oil that would have otherwise been blocked by Iran’s closure of the strait. What do the Russians get?
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What Did Putin Get
$210 million can buy 175,000 152mm howitzer shells (the caliber the Russians are using in their war in Ukraine). The Russians are using 40,000 shells a month. The President’s “deal” gives Russia a 4 month supply of artillery shells – the exact opposite of what the sanctions against Russia were supposed to prevent. The same amount could also be used to purchase 4200 Shahed drones – currently being used to strike predominantly civilian targets. At 100 a day, that new supply enables 42 days of bombardment.
The President’s “deal” gives Russia a 4 month supply of artillery shells – the exact opposite of what the sanctions against Russia were supposed to prevent.
How About Americans? What did We Get?
Rather than “solve” the energy crisis brought on by the attack on Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the President’s “deal” enables further Russian aggression against Ukraine, overriding the sanctions that were supposed to prevent Russia from resupplying its forces. It will hardly put a dent in the 8 million barrels of oil we use daily in the United States to produce fuel for our vehicles. It is a pipe dream that this “deal” will somehow lower fuel costs for our farmers, truckers, and everyday consumers.
Such a deal.
