PrimaryCast Regression Analysis
Primarycast.us is a public model to predict Democratic primary elections. Using regression analysis, I analyze why candidates have won past primaries and use the beta values to predict the results of future primaries.
Each election cycle, I write up a report on how the beta values changed that cycle, and what that says about Democratic primary voters and the state of Democratic primary politics. I will list the beta values chart and then discuss my top-line takeaways.
- **Disclaimer — I can not publish the data or the model, and our work is not reviewed by outside organizations. Trust this data at your own risk.
Money Mattered More Than Ever in 2022
Between 2016 and 2020, fundraising (including allied independent expenditures) explained around 50% of the vote share in Democratic Primaries. In 2020, fundraising explained a record low of 40% of the vote share. The 2020 Democratic primaries also took place during the first months of the pandemic.
In 2022, money talked again. Candidate fundraising explained almost 80% of the vote share. Why?
Post-Pandemic Normalization
The 2022 Democratic primaries did not take place during the height of the pandemic, and the industry always expected 2022 fundraising effectiveness would bounce back towards 2016 and 2018 marks.
Redistricting Scrambled Districts and Created More Competitive Primaries
Redistricting assigned millions of voters to new districts and forced candidates to spend more money introducing themselves to new voters. Redistricting also encourages retirements and open-seat/competitive Democratic primaries. More competitive Democratic primaries in a region mean more demand for paid media, and expensive paid media benefits the deepest pockets.
A Shift of Progressive Energy
In 2020, being the only progressive in a Democratic primary earned you a 10% vote share boost, all else equal. In 2022, the progressive boost fell to 0%. Again, the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 redistricting likely explain a lot of these shifts.
Democratic Voters Prefer Diverse Candidates
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I would urge caution in over-reading any cycle-by-cycle trends here due to the occasional small sample size and insignificant p-values. The broad takeaway — Democratic primary voters continue to prioritize diversity at the ballot box.
No Longer Detrimental to Self-Fund or Run Under 40
Self-funders and candidates under 40 years old historically faced skepticism from voters to the tune of a 2–5 vote share disadvantage. Those hurdles have dissipated in the past two cycles. A few hypotheses:
Democratic Primary Voters Don’t Mind
Simply, it’s possible that Democratic Primary voters no longer mind youthful candidates or self-funding- think Maxwell Frost and JB Pritzker as great examples here.
The Collapse of Local Journalism
As local journalism, unfortunately, continues to decline, Democratic primary candidates face less scrutiny on their experience, the source of their campaign funds, and of course other glaring issues (not always true as local journalists caught George Santos’ lies before the big guys did!).
Most Democratic Primaries Stay Positive
Few Democratic Primaries reach the fundraising threshold where running negative ads makes sense.
Lack of money, lack of awareness
If Democratic primary candidates avoid scrutiny in local media and in their opponents’ paid media, voters may never learn of a candidate’s inexperience or self-funding.
Looking Forward
Looking forward to 2024, I’m predicting it’ll be a quieter year in Democratic primaries. With fewer Democratic primaries in 2024, voters will learn more from earned media and paid media will cost less. Volunteers can focus their energy on fewer races, possibly reviving the progressive vote share advantage. We expect vote share explained by fundraising to normalize back to 60–70% instead of the 80% seen in 2022.
