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Is it safe to book a summer vacation yet?
The U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to a deal that would end the war, lift sanctions, release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Is that your cue to book your summer vacation?
It might be. But as always, the truth is complicated.
The travel industry is already damaged. Airbnb said this week that cancellations across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific are running higher than usual, and it expects second-quarter bookings to drop by about a full percentage point. Booking Holdings, which owns Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, and Kayak, cut its full-year revenue forecast and now expects soft demand to drag on through June. Hilton has flagged occupancy pressure in the Middle East, too.
The diplomats may be circling a deal, but nothing is signed. Iranian lawmakers have called the U.S. proposal a “wish list.” The White House itself isn’t sure Tehran’s leadership can agree internally.
Meanwhile, the companies selling you a summer trip insist the worst is already priced in. It’s a familiar pitch, but it also assumes nothing else goes wrong. And during crazy times like this, that’s a big assumption to make.
