Trump and Strategy
I’ve always thought that people who try to understand the strategy behind any of Trump’s actions were acting like someone who sees the face of a different president in their toast every morning. I thought they weren’t foolish, just fooled by pareidolia.
I’ve tried my best to paint Trump in my mind as a paramecium whose only intention is to swim from cold, uncomfortable water to the warm side of the pond; to get out of the current uncomfortable situation as quickly and expediently as possible. I was wrong. If I was right, his behavior would be mostly unpredictable, leaving him without any of the support of his allies and even his base.
Not to say that he hasn’t put them in a tight spot, or that he hasn’t ever shoot himself in the foot. But his actions collectively produce certain patterns. For example, Trump reserves his most vicious criticisms to mostly women and black people, all the while praising and licking the boots of authoritarian figures such as — and most notably — Putin. His actions may seem random to some, but they communicate a clear and consistent message to his allies and supporters. There is a strategy here.
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The press in the United States has found that Russia was paying Afghan soldiers to kill American troops. A paramecium’s response would be to tepidly condemn the actions of Russia to deflect criticism as quickly as possible. Trump’s long term vision, however, is to maintain whatever bond there is between him and Putin, at whatever the cost — to him and the United States.
All of this is relevant right now because, even though it doesn’t seems like it, we’re in the middle of a presidential campaign and not only Trump is behind Biden in the polls, the gap is widening. It should be abundantly clear that Trump’s first priority is not reelection. Reelection matters to him, but whether he’s made the calculation that reelection is not worth the cost or he doesn’t think he stands a chance, Trump is not doing all he can to convince moderate voters to choose him over Biden.
What I think Trump’s first priority is is to solidify his status within his large following. To win reelection, Trump has to get the support of independents and moderate republicans. Instead, Trump is strengthening his support among those in the fringes of the far right in the United States. Those people represent at most 30% of the electorate. While that percentage is nowhere near enough to win a reelection, it’s large enough to take control of the Republican party. Half of Republican votes is more than enough for Trump to keep blackmailing Republican politicians.
His other top priority is to strengthen the bond between him and powerful and corrupt figures. Trump here is playing the long game, thinking not just about himself, but about his family. Trump doesn’t have a long life before him. Therefore, alliances with corrupt regimes such as those of Putin and Mohammed bin Salman have more to do with trying his best to guarantee a future for his kids and, perhaps more importantly, the Trump name.
Trump will bleed the Republican party to death if Republican leaders let him, in the name of his own interests — and they’re going to let him.
