Cardiff Asked London For The Thing Dublin Refused
Our Own Ground • No. 5
Three first ministers signed a declaration on constitutional change this morning. None of them signed it as a first minister, and what they asked Westminster for is what the Dáil voted down ten weeks ago.
What Was Signed
This morning at a hotel on Cardiff Bay, John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth and Michelle O’Neill put their signatures to a memorandum of understanding, with Mary Lou McDonald present beside them. The agreement binds their parties to work together on the economy, energy and international affairs; it also affirms that every nation has the right to determine its own future, and urges the British government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change.”
According to the document, this is the first time ever that Scotland, Wales and the north of Ireland each have first ministers who all want out of the United Kingdom. At the press conference, Swinney went even further, forecasting that Andy Burnham would be the last prime minister of the UK.
That should be taken seriously before it is dismissed. It is, in truth, something new. For the first time since the state came into existence, three governments on these islands are simultaneously headed by parties that want the state dissolved. Anyone treating this as a mere stunt is missing the point, and Swinney’s argument that the settlement cannot endure is a reasonable interpretation of an unprecedented reality.
The Line In The Fourth Paragraph
The crucial point that was present in every outlet, yet missed by all of them, was this.
They assembled and put their names to it in their roles as party leaders, not as officeholders within their own administrations.
That is neither a mere procedural point nor an instance of hypocrisy. It is built into the structure, and it is the clearest thing about the day. In the north, the office of First Minister is shared jointly. O’Neill cannot bind it to anything without Emma Little-Pengelly, who stated this morning, quite directly, that no request for approval or consent had been made to her for O’Neill to travel, attend, or sign anything in the capacity of First Minister, and who said that O’Neill was attempting to “weaponise the role of first minister.” On the strict constitutional issue, Little-Pengelly is correct.
So, this is what took place in Cardiff. The three figures who possess the greatest institutional authority over constitutional change on these islands were able to express their views on constitutional change only by leaving that authority at the door.
They appeared there as party leaders because, as first ministers, they are not allowed to state that desire openly. Then, on Tuesday morning, once they return to their offices, everything goes back to the way it was on Friday.
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I have been describing this pattern for about a month, and this instance is different because it is not something inferred from a person’s tone. It is a matter of procedure. It is written into the copy. It is corroborated by the person who would have needed to countersign.
The Address On The Envelope
Now the harder half, and the thing I have not seen anyone say today.
What Burnham is being asked to do in the declaration is to get ready for constitutional change, to shape it, and to help bring it about.
Consider that alongside the Planning for Constitutional Change Bill, which Sinn Féin introduced in the Dáil and which was defeated on 7th July by 79 votes to 69. It called for a Green Paper within eighteen months, with health, taxation, pensions and public services under review. It proposed an all-island citizens’ assembly. It wanted organised groundwork before a referendum, not after one had already been announced.
The request is identical. Only ten weeks separate them. The sole variation is the name on the envelope.
Back in July, the appeal was directed to Dublin, and Dublin refused. In September, it was sent to London instead, from a hotel in Wales, with signatures from people who had to remove their hats in order to sign.
No one in Cardiff said that, though it is the day’s most telling detail. The Irish government is the only institution able to commission the document without needing anyone else’s approval; it has no joint office to answer to, no Secretary of State, no consent process, and no Westminster veto. It merely said no. Yet the reply has been to turn to a British prime minister, the same one who wrote to Swinney last week to say that a referendum is not permitted.
The shared framing has a cost as well, and it ought to be stated plainly. The north already has a lawful path to a referendum, set out in an international agreement and in British statute. Scotland and Wales do not have anything like it. Putting the issue inside a common declaration turns a treaty-based entitlement into a political hope, reduced to the lowest common denominator in the room. Unionism will argue that point this week, and on that limited issue it will be right.
The Numbers
Recent polls place support for independence at about 47% in Scotland, 36% in the north, and 32% in Wales. The Welsh First Minister who is hosting the summit has rejected an immediate referendum campaign in his own country.
So the host venue has already turned down the very thing it asked for, and two of the three nations are nowhere close.
That does not make the day pointless. A declaration signed by three governing parties is still a concrete event, and it will be cited ten years from now. Yet a memorandum of understanding is not an operative procedure, and the voters who determine this are not in Cardiff Bay. They are in Bangor and Lisburn and Newtownards, and what they witnessed this morning was four party leaders urging a British government to begin a process, in the same season that the Irish government voted against beginning it.
They removed their offices in order to make the request.
Anything that would truly settle the issue depends on putting them back on.
Part of a wider body of work on Irish politics and unity. Follow on for the rest.
