East Coast Tsunami?
Is It Possible?
I get lots of interesting questions at public engagements, many are about likely scenarios that can happen in New York City. Among them is whether or not a tsunami can impact the city.
This question has been discussed and researched by leading scientists, and most have concluded that a tsunami in New York City is unlikely due to the landmass, typography and geography of the area. In fact, most scientists believe there is only a 2% chance of a tsunami impacting New York City.
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But if it did come, where would it originate? The truth is this question is difficult to answer given that a tsunami can originate from various sources. A volcano, a shift in continental plates, a landslide can all cause a tsunami. Most scientists have looked at La Palma’s Volcano in the Canary Island’s as a likely source. In 2021, 7000 people were evacuated because of La Palma’s Cumbre Vieja volcanic eruption. The eruptions lasted three months and spread volcano flow two miles wide into the ocean. Many thought we could see a tsunami due to the displacement caused by the volcanic flow. But nothing happened, and many scientists were convinced that a tsunami in New York City caused by La Palma was remote, at best.
But are we truly able to discount the possibility that a tsunami can reach New York City? The short answer is no. That’s because there are other sources that can trigger a tsunami that are unknown to us at this time. Perhaps one of the biggest threats is an undersea earthquake. Earthquakes are the number one source of tsunami’s around the world. In fact, the last great tsunamis, including Japan’s 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, were all caused by submarine earthquakes.
But what if I told you that some world powers were experimenting with detonations that can create the same effects as an underwater earthquake. In fact, others are even studying how to use explosions to create earthquakes along enemy fault lines. What would you think? Pretty devious right, cannot believe there are people who think that is a good idea.
There are those that say China, Russia and others have been studying the effects of how detonations can spur earthquakes along fault lines. This is not a new effort but it is a dangerous one and we have to be cognizant of this possibility. Yes, we have enough to worry about with natural earthquakes without creating our own disasters. But this factor does increase the chance that during conflict, we could see a tsunami in NYC.
Ok, so lets go back in time and ask ourselves. Has there ever been a tsunami in New York City in the past? Well, when we look at historical or science research there was a study of sedimentation in NYC that pointed to a tsunami two thousand years ago. Dr. Steven Goodbred of Vanderbilt University found that large ocean fossils and gravel from around 300 B.C., normally found out at sea were detected in NY and NJ. Suggesting that a large wave had to have carried that sediment to its existing locations. Based on the research, Dr. Goodbred estimated the wave to have been 3–4 meters high, “high enough to leap over the barrier islands” A wave that big would certainly be bad news for the city. While his research continues, there are those that beleive this tsunami may have been caused by a meteor strike out at sea while others believe it was the mother of all storms. Whatever the case, with this evidence of a potential Tsunami thousands of years ago, we simply cannot discount the possibility that a tsunami can hit New York City. The answer is yes, a tsunami strike in New York City is a distinct possiblity and you should consider how you could be better prepared.
