Controlled Chaos

Newcastle United 2.0, analysis of Newcastle United’s start to the season and the youthful nature of the side. The intelligence of Sean Steur and Nico Gonzalez, Joe Willock’s resurgence, Rory Finneran at Notts County and a bit of vibe scouting on Martin Baturina. Enjoy :)

Introduction

The new season is finally here, and it’s nice to feel excited about Newcastle United again. The club’s chaotic nature was in full force this summer, but this time it felt like “controlled chaos”. Hats off to Ross Wilson and everyone involved at executive level. The term “controlled chaos” isn’t often associated with the off-pitch workings of a football club, and it’s more commonly used for on-pitch tactical approaches (Iraola most commonly), but I think it’s an appropriate way to describe our summer.

There has been so much talk over the past few months about a club’s identity, Manchester United and Liverpool in particular, which has had me thinking about what is Newcastle United’s identity? David Hopkinson has been very open about Jaissle fitting “Newcastle’s DNA”, but what exactly is that? For me, it’s chaos. This is a super emotional football club, a one-club city with the most passionate fan base in the world. The drama seems to follow us around everywhere; it can be exhausting as a fan, but it’s also what makes this the greatest club in the world to support. As a fan base, we have suffered so much heartbreak though: the second-place finishes in the 90’s, the trophy drought, six in a row, and just playing Liverpool every season (bar that one time). Heartbreak is part of football, but for Newcastle it is also due to the chaotic nature of the club; this term “controlled chaos” is exactly the direction Newcastle United needs to go in because this club can’t exist without a bit of chaos. But we need a bit of control, and that’s what feels like the new identity of “Newcastle 2.0”. I’m really excited for this era, and for the first time in a while I have trust in the people at the top of the club.

Anyway, on to the boring tactical stuff.

Simplicity is the formula

We’ve started life under our new gaffer quite nicely, but it is clear we are a “work in progress”, but did anyone expect anything less? I have been impressed by Jaissle’s tactical adaptations in the early stages of the season, though.

Against Liverpool, we saw a man-oriented approach to our block, which didn’t work perfectly. Gravenberch was causing us issues between the lines, and Liverpool were able to manipulate big spaces between the lines for him to arrive in.

Here you can see Szoboszlai dragging Miley out of position and Wirtz taking Steur towards our left-hand side. Gravenberch moving into Wissa’s blindside allowed him to find this space, and Jacquet could find him.

We then saw Jaissle adapt to this in the game.

By just having Wissa man-mark Gravenberch. Very simple solution. But this is what I’ve loved about Jaissle from a tactical perspective. The simplicity of his approach and the tweaks he makes.

Now we move to the Spurs game and look at the simplicity of his tweaks. Jaissle likes his full-backs pushed high up in build-up, as you can see with Dedic pushed up high on that screenshot, but Hall isn’t? Now usually both would be, but Jaissle adapted to the opposition. So, Spurs want to maintain a +1 at the back in their press; this means that someone will have a hybrid role. Which means they must be responsible for more than one man. This player is Archie Gray (right back) pulling Hall deeper simply meant Gray had more distance to cover for his two men, and of course we exploited that.

One example is from a simple long ball from Hornicek, which led to Barnes being able to pick up a loose ball with no man in front of him, as Gray had to figure out which player to be closer to, out of Barnes and Hall.

Barnes is able to pick this up and drive into the final third.

Another example further up the pitch. But Gray again is between Barnes and Hall but can’t be goal side. Van Hecke doesn’t want to step up to Wissa, who was dropping deep frequently, because he didn’t want to give Barnes too much space. Wissa receives it between the lines via a lovely pass from Miley and can turn and play Barnes in behind.

A final example I liked was against Hull. Jaissle shifted his in-possession shape from a 3–1–6 to a 4–1–5, but don’t get too caught up on the shape, as it was the movements within it which were key.

Hull are known for being really good in their block and happy for the opponents to have the ball. Jaissle found a way to break through this Hull block. It was through movements within wide triangles. This is the lead-up to our first goal. Botman plays the ball wide to Hall. This triggers Coyle (RWB) to step up; Barnes then attacks the space left by Coyle.

Hull’s midfielders defend zonally, which means Willock and Wissa can occupy the space between the lines. Because of Barnes’ movement, Ajayi is tasked with following him, which then creates space for Willock to attack. Hall slips him in nicely. Willock’s first shot is blocked, but as we know, the ball eventually comes back to him, and he scores.

The pass map from the Hull game shows the wide triangles on either side, with our left-hand side operating a lot better. It was a bit of a throwback to Eddie Howe’s 4–3–3 at times.

I love the simplicity of these tweaks from Jaissle and how effective they can be. Gravenberch is finding space between the lines = man-mark. Gray has two players to mark = Increase distance between said players to give them more space. Also, they both show different sides of his adaptation; the first one is in-game, and the other was pre-game.

Long-term questions do appear when looking at the simplicity of Jaissle’s approach. As Jon Mackenzie from The Athletic put it, Jaissle’s approach is high floor, low ceiling. This simplicity will bring instant success, and it has done so, but the question marks will rise once coaches start to figure him out: how will he adapt? Can he continue to find new tweaks and adaptations forever, or does he have to complicate his tactical approach a bit? Premier League coaches aren’t stupid; they will find solutions against this current version of Newcastle. This is the big question over Jaissle’s long-term success at Newcastle.

Defending…

Newcastle have faced 97 shots this season, more than any other team in the Premier League. It’s a very basic way to look at it, but it’s a concern. You cannot be conceding that number of shots. Reasons for this seem to be a mix of personnel issues and tactical issues. I’ve already gone into some detail about what went wrong with the Liverpool game; the openness of the midfield was partially solved until Steur made a big mistake, leaving Gakpo free to score.

It is interesting to look at how we defend in our low block. It is a 4–4–2 with man-marking responsibilities within that. So usually, the winger is tasked with supporting the full-back and doubling up, but Bournemouth didn’t allow us to do that by creating wide triangles.

So, Smith is underlapping, meaning Barnes has to take him, but also our central midfielders have to pick up any runners from deep, which Kluivert is also doing. This takes Miley and Barnes out, meaning Hall must deal with Rayan 1v1, which he fails to do.

But what these runs from Smith and Kluivert do is leave space on the edge of the box for a cutback. It was a clearance from Botman which led to them getting the ball in this space, but this next shot led to the first goal for Bournemouth. A simple fix here would be Willock dropping into the midfield line when in a low block to create a 4–5–1.

Howe would do this whether he was playing 4–3–3 or 4–2–3–1. He always liked to have five players in his second line in a low block, to limit space on the edge of the box.

Leeds was probably our worst defensive display, and that space on the edge of the box was prevalent. This situation is more transitional than us sitting in a low block like the previous example, but if you can remember, Leeds scored two goals from the edge of the box, albeit the second one isn’t relevant as it was via a set piece.

I am going to go through the whole build-up to Leeds’ first goal as it brings me on nicely to my next point. But here we go long to Wissa and Pardo, who are 2v2 against Leeds; they lose the duel and look how well-prepared Leeds are for the second ball. Especially Ampadu, who Miley simply must be tighter to.

As expected, Ampadu collects the ball under absolutely no pressure. This is us not doing the basics well enough.

Under no pressure, Ampadu can feed Tanaka between the lines.

Then, like Bournemouth, Leeds uses clever movements in wide areas to create space on the edge of the box.

So, after the last image, Tanaka gave it wide to Okafor, who drove it forward. This wouldn’t be a problem usually, as Murphy could double up and Miley could cover space in the centre, but Gudmundson makes a perfectly timed underlap which drags Murphy away and creates space for Okafor to cut inside. Not only that, but it also drags Miley away from the centre.

Then you also had Stach crashing the box; this is the responsibility of Steur to pick him up, which creates further room for Tanaka to get a shot off. Just like Bournemouth, Leeds use off-ball movement to drag our midfielders deep and create that space in “zone 14”, which, if you didn’t know, is the most dangerous zone on a football pitch.

Now, on to my next point about our defensive problems. Teething issues.

This is a nice (probably the wrong adjective) example of said teething issues. Here we are in a counter-press situation after losing possession. Truffert and Tavernier have begun to make runs beyond as Evanilson drops. There is a failure by anyone to pick them up. Everyone is too focused on the ball and not instructing others around them. Lack of communication.

Bournemouth break out of the counter-press via Evanilson dropping it to a centre-back who spreads the ball wide to a free Truffert in A LOT of space. They are 4v3 on our last line.

Truffert eventually cuts it back to Tavernier, who should really score and double their lead.

I’ll give you some context on this example; Leeds have just transitioned via breaking through our press from a throw-in deep in their half. They brought the ball wide to Justin (24), who has played an early cross. I am very impressed by how many bodies we got back so quickly, and we dealt with the first phase of this attack very well.

The ball is cleared away to Tanaka, who puts a second cross in. Now look at the situation. Very little organisation; we haven’t moved as a unit and have become uncompact. Tanaka has put a cross to the back post where Leeds are now 3v3 on our last line. Leading to a huge chance, which Hornicek saved brilliantly. Once again, I am talking about leadership and organisation. The basics of defending aren’t being done well enough.

Now this is the lead-up to their third goal. We have just cleared the ball from a long throw and forced Leeds back. The ball is at the feet of their centre-back on halfway. We have three players who have made it past the edge of the D. THREE. Not getting out nearly quick enough.

Ball comes out to Justin. Fair play to Dedic; he put the yards in and put pressure on the ball, leading to a terrible cross from Justin. But again, I am looking at six players on our last line and a 3v3 on the far side.

Then the rest of the goal is just so poor from Miley and Botman. Miley caught flat-footed, and Botman overcommitting to DCL’s fake shot is just awful. That third goal was so poor. My head is a little hot just typing this out. Comes back to the point about us not doing the basics well enough.

This is the lead-up to Hull’s goal. This goal comes from our own throw-in. Hall throws it long to Ajayi, who heads it back, and then Hall heads to Miley, who takes a poor touch (which can happen), as you can see above.

Belloumi latches onto it. Now this is seriously good by Hull but also poor from our perspective. Belloumi opens his body up as if he is going to shoot, which triggers Schar to step out and attempt to block the shot, but Belloumi deceives him and slips in Cho via a lovely pass. This is obviously poor by Schar, especially an experience centre back like him, but I do also want to give credit to the attacker.

It’s a great touch and finish from Cho, but for Hull to be put in a position like that from our own throw-in is absolutely shocking from our perspective.

We did hang on to our lead, but there were further examples of us lacking leadership and organisation. From a long throw, Herrington beats Hall to the first ball and flicks on to the back post.

Miley and Thiaw both compete for the same ball. Leading to a very poor clearance. These are two players who are in our leadership group…

Schar has to flick it on at an awkward angle.

Wissa loses 50/50.

Then they get shot off, which just goes over. We got away with it, but this all came from Thiaw and Miley both going for the same ball. Not enough trust/leadership in this team yet.

I know I have gone on a bit of a rant there, but I do want to sprinkle a bit of positivity over this. I didn’t expect much less from this side. We are a super young side, with a young manager who will still be getting to know his players. These mistakes will continue to happen because young players make mistakes; that’s what they do. That’s how they improve, but also, as a team, they will still be establishing their roles within the group. We need to improve, but this group have so much room and time for improvement. I do believe the majority of our defensive problems will be solved with time and team-building.

Another minor problem is the understanding in the press. Jaissle presses in a hybrid fashion, so there is a responsibility for the players to know when and when not to press due to them having a -1 in the front line. Jaissle spoke about this post-Spurs.

“In the high press, you need to be fully committed and not be in hesitation mode. If there is a little bit of doubt, then you need to defend your own box”.

Here we enter the high press, but Scott (who is the free man) has cleverly pulled wide; Willock not putting enough pressure on the ball allows Scott to receive it in a lot of space.

Scott is able to carry it so far up the pitch because Dedic and Elanga had man-marking duties in the press and were hesitant to leave them, with Nico being slow to get across.

Eventually he gets a shot off. It’s a relatively low chance, but that is way too simple for Bournemouth.

Here we see vs Hull, Willock is tasked with covering Crooks (RCM) and Coyle (RWB). Wissa is forcing play towards Hull’s right-hand side, but Willock is positioned poorly as he is too close to Crooks.

A nice pass via their goalkeeper finds Coyle, and Willock has to cover too much distance to compete for the ball.

Belloumi drops in, pulling Hall deep, whilst Crooks (who is now free) is attacking the space left.

Simple up-back and through nearly leads to Hull getting in. Willock blocks the pass well.

Unfortunately, it does fall to McBurnie, who can now play Crooks into that space. But Hull have earned that luck.

Early cross is nearly converted if it wasn’t for a great tackle by Miley.

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There is an element of misfortune with this example, but time is still needed for us to perfect our press. I do feel like we are improving game by game with it. The numbers aren’t bad either; we are sixth for passes per defensive action (PPDA) according to OPTA.

With one game a week, I think we should be striving to get into the top three for that metric; we just need more training time, and I think our press will start to look good.

Build-up (or lack of, should I say)

I am just going to throw some numbers at you straight away. These are taken from AndyForrester1 on X via Footovision. After Gameweek three, Newcastle was second for % of time taken in low build-up, bottom for % of successful midfield line-breaking passes, bottom for passes received between the lines, second-bottom for ball losses in our own half and bottom for compactness in build-up. Here is a link to that post.

I don’t have access to more recent data, but on the eye test from Leeds and Hull, I imagine it doesn’t look too dissimilar.

I am going to link you to another post here, and it’s from Kev Lawson on BlueSky.

Kev has noticed the issues with our build-up play as well. Interestingly speaks about how quickly we are dropping our “6” between the centre-backs and then the distance on the pass that follows because of this. This links in nicely with the data provided by Andy, especially the compactness in build-up.

Now I agree with Kev about the movement of the 6 being too quick, but also, I think this coincides with the movement of our forward players as well. We don’t have ball-to-feet forwards. Wissa is the closest we have, but because our 6 drops in so quickly, play is usually funnelled wide, as you can see in the screenshots provided by Kev. Once that ball is wide, our wingers are always looking beyond the last line. This creates huge distances between the defensive players and attackers. This naturally makes the passes more difficult and leads to more turnovers in our half.

The build-up problems are serious for me. As much as it is a timing/tactical issue, it is also a recruitment issue and an issue which has been noted by the fanbase for a while. Ramsey in the “10” or just in the side in general should help, as he does offer us more solutions, but it’s what you lose, especially in the 10 role. Wissa is practically undroppable now, plus he and Willock are developing a nice partnership up there with well-timed counter movements. Then deeper, you lose the physical qualities Miley possesses off the ball. This is an issue that needs solving, and if I’m being honest, I can’t think of many solutions with our current crop of players. Let’s hope the experts do, or at least find a short-term fix before we can find a solution in the market.

Sean f*cking Steur

Ajax have long been renowned for producing technically gifted and intelligent midfielders. Their academy places a huge emphasis on more than just technical ability; players are taught to understand space, recognise passing angles, anticipate pressure and make decisions before the ball even reaches them. This footballing education has helped produce a long line of midfielders capable of controlling games, like Frenkie De Jong. It is within this environment that Sean Steur has developed, but unlike many, Steur wasn’t ready to wait around for game time. We pounced on a market opportunity, and my god am I excited about this kid.

Here we see him receiving between the centre-backs in Jaissle’s 3–1–6 in possession shape.

He opens his body towards our right-hand side, pulling WBA’s left centre midfielder, in their 5–4–1 mid-low block, towards our right-hand side and opening up a passing angle towards Woltemade (good luck at Juve, son).

He fires this pass into Woltemade, who fails to control but this is a fine example of the intelligence of Steur. His understanding of angles and how to position his body to manipulate opponents is top-notch and not something you often see from an 18-year-old.

He’s got such a good reading of the game; here we see him moving out of position, dragging his marker away from the centre to create a passing angle into Wissa, whilst also pointing to Botman, where the next pass should go.

Botman listened.

It can be little things with Steur that I love. Playing this pass across pressure into Ramsey leads to us being able to play through Bournemouth’s press.

After the pass, Steur makes the run beyond, leaving space for Ramsey to drop into and shrug off pressure.

Then find the pass into Hall, who is free because Rayan jumped onto Botman trying to force the ball over to our right-hand side, but Steur originally played across that pressure.

Another point I want to make about Steur is his character. Very rarely do you see a highly rated 18-year-old Dutch midfielder leave Ajax because he believes he deserves more game time; obviously a lad very confident in his ability. Then the Leeds game happens: a cheap giveaway leads to their second goal, and I am feeling so bad for the lad, but it doesn’t seem to faze Steur much. He regathers himself, plays the rest of the game, completing four progressive passes, two passes into the penalty area and a one-shot assist. That is just brilliant.

A happy medium

I am going to stick with the midfielder theme and look at Nico Gonzalez’s start to life at NUFC. I’ve already mentioned this on X, but he is like a happy medium between Bruno and Tonali. On the ball, he isn’t as good as Bruno; not many midfielders in Europe are, though. Off the ball, he is superior in my opinion; his positioning and physical attributes are my main reasons why. But then, onto Tonali: on the ball, he is so much more intelligent.

This is a great example vs Bournemouth. Collects the ball from Hornicek.

Opens his body and manipulates Kluivert (who was tired, to be fair) to overcommit into the press, which allows Nico to turn out of pressure and play a pass into Ramsey.

He then adjusts his position between the two centre-backs to create a 3v2 against Bournemouth’s front line and creates a simple passing lane for Ramsey.

He then plays it wide to Botman, who is now the spare man and Newcastle progress up the field.

Nico is a really intelligent mover in possession and in build-up; he played a big part in the lead-up to our winner vs Millwall.

We are in a 4–2–3–1 shape, but Millwall are beginning to step up and apply pressure, with their left midfielder timing his jump to Tino well.

Tino is forced back to Botman. Millwall’s seven is tasked with applying pressure on Botman plus shadow-mark Nico. So, Nico leaves his shadow and moves into our first line as seven begins to press Botman.

This gives us a solution. Botman can use Ramsey as a bounce pass to Nico, who is now free due to his movement. The pass from Ramsey is a bouncy one, so Millwall’s right midfielder jumps off Hall to press Nico.

Nico calmly controls it with his chest and volleys it over the midfielder’s head into Hall, who is free and can carry us forward.

This is what I mean about his intelligence, something Tonali couldn’t offer us. But Tonali did offer us plenty of value off the ball, where I think Nico is inferior to Sandro.

So, Robertson has made a run which Nico was late to react to, which is fine, but for some reason he isn’t desperate to get goal side and slows himself down, thinking Robertson is going to cut back.

Robertson lets it run across his body, which seemed likely from the first screenshot. But because Nico misreads Robertson, he is late to get across, and Robertson gets his shot off.

Then this is in the lead-up to Bournemouth’s second goal. Nico thinks Tavernier is going to play the pass down the line, which looks unlikely looking at the positioning of his body, but I get why Nico is worried about that. Either way, Nico’s body positioning is terrible. He is way too committed to defending the overlap and is leaving space centrally for Tavernier.

Once he realises Tavernier is going to carry centrally, he must completely adjust his body and make a late challenge, which he misses due to the time taken to readjust his body.

Joe Willock is back

If you said to me at the start of the summer that Joe Willock would be starting five out of our first seven games, I probably would have believed you. Nah, just kidding (kinda). Willock seemingly looked out of the door this summer; Besiktas were interested, and Newcastle were open to a sale. In comes Jaissle, though, with his 4–2–3–1 shape and importance of verticality. With Willock and Wissa’s counter-movements becoming a key part of the way Newcastle attack.

Against Liverpool, he was super useful in and out of possession. As previously mentioned, Jaissle adapted our out-of-possession approach and asked our number ten to man-mark Gravenberch. Wissa was doing an okay job, but after a midfield collapse which led to Liverpool’s first goal, Jaissle needed a personnel change. In came Willock and Ramsey, and then we looked so much more solid in our block. But more crucially came his goal. Willock has always been a player who has thrived in transition and has amazing control when moving at speed; my god did he show that for his goal.

Even against Spurs, he impressed. His general play on the ball was good and had some great moments carrying us up the pitch, but his movement off Wissa was what impressed me most. Wissa was tasked to drop deep, play more like a false nine whilst Willock would make more vertical runs. These counter movements caused Spurs issues and often led to Wissa receiving the ball between the lines with space. This pass map via Markstatsbot on X proves this.

Jaissle has become fond of these counter movements between Willock and Wissa. One aspect of Willock’s game which is hugely underrated is his strength, and Willock occupying the last line helps replicate Osula’s physical qualities, which Wissa would fail to replicate.

Against Millwall, we launch a long ball where Millwall have a 2v1 on Willock. Two big EFL centre-backs are always tough to deal with.

Willock battles so well, keeps his balance and gets first contact on the ball.

Knocks it back to Murphy, who moved cleverly off the ball, which positioned him nicely to collect the loose ball. Sadly, as was the story with Murphy’s game vs Millwall, the final action was pretty poor, but this came from Willock’s run in behind and centre-forward-type strength to hold off a big EFL centre-back.

I’ve really enjoyed the resurgence of Willock during the early stages of the season. I doubt he keeps his place when Osula returns, but Willock has been brilliant and is playing a key role tactically. Which may earn him a new contract - what a brilliant story, and one I really wasn’t expecting.

Loan Watch: Rory Finneran

What a cracking start to Rory’s first-ever loan move at Notts County. He has started every game and has been getting top praise online from the Notts County fans. Only 18 years old, but not his first games in the EFL. He made his professional debut for Blackburn when he was 15…

If you follow me on X, I have been raving about Finneran for a while. Especially his on-ball capabilities. He’s a very intelligent midfielder, often positions himself correctly and makes good decisions on the ball. This is aided by his technical security, though; he is so comfortable and confident with the ball at his feet that he can think ahead and be proactive in his approach with the ball. He uses his body so well to manipulate opponents, dropping a shoulder or just putting his body across them and bringing the ball forward. He is so hard to dispossess. He is a very front-footed defender as well, very good in his duels and anticipates danger. I do have concerns about how he screens the defence, especially when in a low block. This is a key part of his game, which I believe needs work.

His ability under pressure is definitely one of his strongest attributes, though, and I will show you through a couple of examples how he has multiple solutions to breaking through pressure.

A little scan over the shoulder, whilst the ball is travelling towards him.

He reads the direction of the run of his opponent and turns the other way, using his arm to maintain separation.

Sends him to the ground, showing excellent strength.

Times pass wonderfully to a teammate.

Here, he takes a touch back and opens up his body, dragging his marker to cut off the wide passing lane.

Then shifts back the other direction, sending his marker and causing him to become unbalanced.

Wins the foul. He is winning 1.6 fouls per 90, which puts him in the 78th percentile in League One according to FOTMOB.

Just forget about ability for a second; this is his first taste of senior football, and he his showing so much bravery and calmness on the ball. That is so impressive. I am absolutely chuffed for the lad and how well he has started life at Notts County. He is a real talent.

Vibe scouting: Baturina addition

Now, to finish off these reads for you, I am adding a small section called vibe scouting. I watch too much football and come across a lot of players who I enjoy, and each time I do write this, I will include one player I have enjoyed over the course of the weeks/months and try to imagine them in a Newcastle shirt just for vibes purposes. We may not need them; they may not fit or even be good enough, but it’s just a bit of fun. I would love to hear your suggestions in the comments: players you have enjoyed watching.

I recently watched Napoli vs Como, and despite only playing 57 minutes, Baturina was a joy. Playing off the left, he had freedom to drift inside and rotate in a wide triangle with De Cunha and Valle. He grabbed himself a goal and an assist in this game. I was so impressed by his technical qualities, especially in tight spaces, but also a very intelligent presser.

This is brilliant; he reads Anguissa’s body positioning and knows his next action is going to be a pass back to the centre-back.

Blocks clearance from the centre-back.

Which falls to Douvikas, who does the rest. That is top-notch pressing, in a hybrid system which Jaissle opts for as well. That is one big fat tick when it comes to whether he would fit in tactically at Newcastle.

Three goals and two assists in his first six games of the season, scoring Como’s first-ever goal in the UCL as well. Such a fun and intelligent footballer; he is likely destined for bigger things than Newcastle, but my god I would love to see him in black and white. He would be that versatile ball-to-feet option the attack is dying for.

Thank you so much for reading this far. If you enjoyed any interactions, it would be greatly appreciated. I will be doing these throughout the whole season, so keep your eyes peeled for when they drop. After that second half against Hull, I am really going to enjoy this international break because I think I need two weeks to recover. Enjoy the break and HWTL!