Nebraska’s dilemma
PLUS: FBS Playoff Chase Week 10
IN THIS ISSUE:
- A new “national champion” again
- A college coaching salary correction proposal
- FBS Playoff Chase update
The Lineal Championship hand-offs
Two weeks ago, I noted that Brigham Young was the new Lineal National Champion after beating Notre Dame. The following week, I was so caught up in the drama of the BYU-UCF ending that I forgot that the championship was at stake. Well, UCF won it and held the championship for six days. On Friday, October 30, Baylor crushed UCF 41–9, so they are the new national champion.
It is Baylor’s eighth time as champion and fifth time this century. Most often, they held it for one or two weeks, although they did have it for over a year from November 2012 to November 2013. The current Bears are 5–3 this season; if they hold on to the title for 12 months, that would be the surprise of the century. But in any case, congratulations to the Baylor Bears, your Lineal National Champs!
HIRING COACHES
On Sunday, Florida State fired head football coach Mike Norvell. Norvell will receive around $50 million as part of his buyout.
On the Cover 3 podcast, Bud Elliott noted that teams that actually operate as businesses, like NFL, NBA, and Premier League franchises, do not cripple their futures with such expensive buyouts. Instead, they invest in the players. He recommends that Florida State offer its head coaching candidate a modest contract, say $5 million/year, with incentives like a $5 million bonus for making the playoffs within the first two years. In this pay-for-play era, invest the money in player talent. His recommendation added fuel to something I had already been thinking about for the past couple of weeks.
I grew up a fan of Nebraska Cornhuskers football. Enthusiasm waned insofar as I no longer feel the need to watch the games every week. This year feels similar, though not identical, to the three previous years under head coach Matt Rhule — good record against bad teams, always finding ways to lose against good (or even just okay) teams. After a 5–0 start, Nebraska went on a three-game losing streak as the schedule got tougher.
The rest of the season looks bleak. The Cornshukers should beat Rutgers on November 14, but before then, they have pretty good Illinois (currently 5–3) this Friday, and after Rutgers, they have Ohio State (6–2) and Iowa (6–2), two teams currently ranked. Nebraska hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016. Nebraska could easily finish the regular season 6–6, a step back from last year’s 7–5.
Matt Rhule’s buyout exceeds Norvell’s: $63 million. Can Nebraska afford to fire him? A program can’t keep paying a new coach a big salary while still paying previous coaches huge salaries not to coach.
So I think Bud Elliott is on to something.
When Bo Pelini coached at Nebraska from 2008 to 2014, he had no head coaching experience (except as a one-game interim). His teams went 9–4 or 10–4 every year. Since firing him for failing to match the program’s success of the 1970s-90s, Nebraska got to a 9–4 record just once, back in 2016. Otherwise, it hasn’t even reached eight wins. Since Pelini, Nebraska has looked for coaches with prior head coaching experience. I disagree that that’s a prerequisite for leading the program.
As evidence, Nebraska has had eight coaches over 65 years. Ranked in order of winning percentage at the school:
- Tom Osborne: .836; no prior experience
- Bob Devaney: .829; previously five seasons at Wyoming, .750
- Frank Solich: .753; no prior experience
- Bo Pelini: .713; no prior experience
- Bill Callahan: .551; 2 seasons NFL,.469
- Matt Rhule: .522; 7 years Temple and Baylor, .522 (although they were rebuilding projects and included three 10-win seasons); 2 ½ seasons NFL, .289
- Mike Riley; .500; 17 years at Oregon State, .538; 3 seasons NFL, .292
- Scott Frost: .340; 2 years UCF, .731
Rhule might finish the regular season at 9–3; if so, everyone in the Nebraska program will breathe easier and most fans will be happy with signs of progress. But if things stay the same for another year, it won’t be tenable to keep him, and it might not be financially tenable to fire him, either.
Unless Nebraska also does what Elliott recommends. Pick a good assistant coach or a G-6 (or FCS) coach for whom $5 million would be a HUGE raise. Load the contract with incentives to give him the opportunity to earn what Rhule had been receiving.
I hope Florida State follows Elliott’s advice and that it works. May it become a model for all programs to follow.
FBS PLAYOFF CHASE STANDINGS
Based on Schedule Rating: the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, subtracting the number of losses by opponents the team has lost to, and subtracting the margins of losses (counted by number of possessions).
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LEADERS (because 12 get into the playoffs)
- Miami 32 (8–0): ACC-1st
- Indiana 31 (8–1): Big Ten-1st
- UCLA 27 (8–0): Big Ten-2nd
- Utah 27 (8–0): Big 12–1st
- Texas 24 (6–2): SEC-1st
- BYU 23 (7–1): Big 12–2nd
- Ohio St 23 (6–2): Big Ten-3rd
- Wake Forest (7–1) 22: ACC-2nd
- Boise St 22 (7–1): G6–1st
- Kentucky 20 (7–1): SEC-2nd
- Texas Tech (7–1) 20: Big 12–3rd
- USC (7–2) 20: Big Ten-4th
CHASERS
13. Alabama 20 (6–2): SEC-3rd
14. Notre Dame 19 (7–1)
15. Georgia 18 (7–1)
16. Memphis 19 (7–2)
17. James Madison 17 (7–2)
18. LSU 17 (6–2)
19. Ole Miss 15 (6–2)
20. UTSA 14 (7–1)
21. Oregon 14 (5–3)
22. North Dakota St 13 (7–2)
23. Houston 12 (6–2)
24. Libery 12 (7–1)
25. South Florida 12 (6–2)
26. Iowa 10 (6–2)*
27. Tennessee 10 (6–2)*
28. Arizona 9 (6–2)*
29. Duke 9 (6–2)*
30. Missouri 8 (6–2)*
31. SMU 8 (6–2)*
32. Michigan 8 (5–3)
*Ranked alphabetically with teams having the same Schedule Rating number.
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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.
