Week 9 NFL MVP Chase

And comparing the Playoff Chase to the CFP Rankings.

Image: Torsten Bolten

IN THIS ISSUE

• NFL MVP Chase Update
• Comparing the FBS Chase standings to the College Football Playoff rankings

WEEK 9 NFL MVP CHASE

Someone has finally caught and passed Brock Purdy in the NFL MVP Chase. Jahmyr Gibbs got past him by again putting up monster numbers in a Lions win (remember that putting up monster numbers in losses means NOTHING in the MVP Chase) while Purdy’s 49ers had a bye.

At 15th and 17th are Dak Prescott and Bijan Robinson, though their teams are 3–5. At the end of last season, I wrote, “Had the Cowboys or Falcons been able to win just two or three more games, Dak Prescott or Bijan Robinson could have won the MVP Chase.” We’re not yet at mid-season, but history feels like it’s repeating itself.

The First College Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its first Top 25 Rankings yesterday (November 3, 2026). It looks like the Committee regards the entire Group of 6 conference teams as second-class, putting only one G-6 team, Boise State, in the Top 25 at the 25th spot as a token and as recognition that one G-6 team will be invited to the Playoff.

I wanted to compare their ranking with my FBS Chase Rankings and also to my Total Rankings, but for more direct comparisons, I have removed G-6 teams from my rankings and will compare the Top 24 of each.

My Schedule Rating is the basis of my Playoff Chase, and it ranks teams in terms of “most deserving” to get in. The Total Rating, however, is an approximation of the best teams, and I was wondering whether the CFP Rankings are closer to the Schedule Rating or Total Rating.

SCHEDULE RATING COMPARISON

The Schedule Rating is the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, subtracting the number of losses by opponents the team has lost to, and subtracting the margins of losses (counted by number of possessions). Here are the (G-6 excluded) Playoff Chase standings based on Schedule Rating, with their College Football Playoff Ranking, and the difference in the position of the two:

1. Miami (8–0) CFP: 1 Diff: 0
2. Indiana (8–1) CFP: 4 Diff: -2
3. UCLA (8–0) CFP: 8 Diff: -5
4. Utah (8–0) CFP: 3 Diff: +1
5. Texas (6–2) CFP: 7 Diff: -2
6. BYU (7–1) CFP: 9 Diff: -3
7. Ohio St (6–2) CFP: 12 Diff: -5
8. Wake Forest (7–1) CFP: 16 Diff: -8
9. Kentucky (7–1) CFP: 6 Diff: +3
10. Texas Tech (7–1) CFP: 15 Diff: -5
11. USC (7–2) CFP: 20 Diff: -9
12. Alabama (6–2) CFP: 5 Diff: +7
13. Notre Dame (7–1) CFP: 11 Diff: +2
14. Georgia (7–1) CFP: 2 Diff: +12
15. LSU (6–2) CFP: 14 Diff: +1
16. Ole Miss (6–2) CFP: 10 Diff: +6
17. Oregon (5–3) CFP: 23 Diff: -6
18. Houston (6–2) CFP: 17 Diff: +1
19. Iowa (6–2)* CFP: 19 Diff: 0
20. Tennessee (6–2)* CFP: 13 Diff: +7
21. Arizona (6–2)* CFP: 22 Diff: -1
22. Duke (6–2)* CFP: — Diff: -4
23. Missouri (6–2)* CFP: 18 Diff: +5
24. SMU (6–2)* CFP: — Diff: -2

Cumulative difference: -7

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Teams not in the Playoff Chase Top 24 but in the CFP rankings: #21 South Carolina and #24 Florida. The CFP has 5 SEC teams in the top 11 (11 P4 teams will make the playoffs) instead of two, and ten of the Top 24 instead of eight.

Florida and South Carolina would be ranked 30th and 31st in the G6-excluded Playoff Chase standings.

TOTAL RATING COMPARISON

Total Rating contains the factors of the Schedule Rating plus margins of victory (controlled to avoid runaway scores that don’t indicate the quality of the team). I use it as a tie-breaker when two or more teams are identical in Schedule Rating and win-loss records.

1. Miami FL CFP: 1 Diff: 0
2. Indiana CFP: 4 Diff: -2
3. Utah CFP: 3 Diff: 0
4. UCLA CFP: 8 Diff: -4
5. Notre Dame CFP: 11 Diff: -6
6. Wake Forest CFP: 16 Diff: -10
7. Ohio St CFP: 12 Diff: -5
8. Georgia CFP: 2 Diff: +6
9. Texas Tech CFP: 15 Diff: -6
10. Alabama CFP: 5 Diff: +5
11. LSU CFP: 14 Diff: -3
12. Texas CFP: 7 Diff: +5
13. BYU CFP: 9 Diff: +4
14. Kentucky CFP: 6 Diff: +8
15. USC CPF: 20 Diff: -5
16. Ole Miss CFP: 10 Diff: +6
17. Arizona CFP: 22 Diff: -5
18. Missouri CFP: 18 Diff: 0
19. Iowa CFP: 19 Diff: 0
20. Tennessee CFP: 13 Diff: +6
21. Houston CFP: 17 Diff: +4
22. Northwestern CFP: — Diff: -4
23. Duke CFP: — Diff: -3
24. Oregon CFP: 23 Diff: +1

Total Rating Cumulative Difference: -7 again! Like the Schedule Rating list, 22 teams are on both the Total Rating and CFP lists, and the top 16 have 15 from the same teams in different orders.

Florida and South Carolina are 25th and 26th, respectively. Three SEC teams are in the Top 11, more than in the Schedule Ranking, but only Texas is the same SEC team in both.

Georgia drew a weak schedule (last year, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt were stronger than this year). That’s why they’re still pretty far down on the Schedule Rating list, although significantly higher on the Total Rating list. Georgia’s case is an example of why I wanted two different lists. But even in the Total Rating list, they’re still just #8 instead of #2 in the CFP ranking.

The Committee may be right in one sense. Georgia is probably the betting favorite against any opponent except perhaps Miami. But the Playoff Chase exists to quantify resumes, not to speculate on who the gamblers favor.

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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.