Transcript of Mark Carney’s Canada Day Speech — Forward Guidance
Note: The text which follows is intended for those who, like myself, prefer to read a speech rather than hearing it or reading reports of it in the media. Neither I nor Google AI were able to locate a proper transcript on the web except for the timestamp transcript which accompanies the YouTube video. The version below is taken from that transcript, reformatted, and checked against delivery.
Introduction
I said a few weeks ago that I would talk with you regularly and directly about the big issues we’re facing together as Canadians. My goal, as always, is to explain as plainly as I can what we’re doing as your government, why we’re doing it, and what we’re working to achieve for our great country.
Many people have told me they liked the approach of the first video. Not everyone agrees with everything I said. Of course, that’s good too, because feedback is important, and I’m pleased that Canadians see these talks in the spirit they’re intended: to improve our understanding of where we are, the challenges we face, and how we can take control of our future. Taking back control is critical because we’re living through a time of great disruption.
The current situation
The global trading system on which we’ve long relied as a country is being dramatically restructured. Global conflicts have sharply increased gas and food prices around the world and right here at home. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence is beginning to transform how we live and how we work. Climate change is worsening with bigger storms, heavier flooding, more devastating wildfires. Canadians are feeling the impacts at their kitchen tables, at the pumps and on the factory floors. The good news is that unlike many countries, we can control our future. But that will require doing things differently, moving faster, building bigger and working together. And nowhere is that more the case than energy. Today, we’re faced with the types of decisions that come once every few generations, but that will determine our future for decades. Our independence, sustainability and prosperity will depend crucially on our ability to supply and control our energy.
Let’s talk about energy
So I want to talk to you today about energy. We face an energy crisis on three levels. An affordability crisis. You don’t need me to tell you about the price of gas. A security crisis. The fact is, the world’s energy supply is being upended by conflict and coercion, and a climate crisis that’s burning our forests and threatening our kids’ future. We need an energy transition that really works. The good news is that Canada has the solutions and that when we control our own energy, we control our future. To understand that future, it’s helpful to look at our history because we didn’t become a great country just by accident. Some bold and wise Canadians built the infrastructure we often take for granted, and it’s their efforts that can be the foundation of our success. We owe it to ourselves, our kids and our grandkids to build again with the same ambition, the same positive spirit. So let’s look at how we got here.
How we got here
One of Canada’s first visionaries was Sir Adam Beck. And if you’ve ever crossed University Ave on Queen Street in downtown Toronto, you’ve passed his statue.
Beck knew that when we create energy for the public good, everybody benefits. So he harnessed the power of the Niagara River to provide affordable energy that Canada’s booming industrial heartland needed to thrive. The 18-storey high project was the largest generating station in the world at that time, and it created a model that gave Ontario affordable, clean power for decades. Hydroelectricity grew across Canada, with major projects in Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia. Quebec in particular took power into its own hands. Maîtres chez nous (Masters in our own home) was the slogan, and a strong economy and modern society were the objectives. Over time, Canadian energy became about much more than hydroelectricity. We created a nuclear industry. Albertans invented and harnessed the technologies needed to harvest the oil sands. We developed our gas reserves, and we began building renewable energy right across the country. It hasn’t always been good news. I was a teenager in Edmonton when the National Energy Program was introduced, and I remember how Ottawa made Albertans feel like our resources weren’t our own. And then more recently, we were made to feel that our energy contributions were running against the tides of history. What should have brought us together, began to divide us. Contributing to a half century of politics that have too often pulled us apart. I’ve acted as Prime Minister to the best of my abilities, to help put those divisions in the past by focusing on what we can build together for the future. From my perspective, there is no more important goal than a strong, united country working together in our common interests. Canada Strong means coming together in the face of external pressures. I don’t want to know what people are against, but what they’re for. How we can act with overwhelming force to build the best possible future, drawing on the very many resources that we’re blessed with. Here’s what that means for dealing with the threefold energy crisis that I just described.
Affordability
First, when it comes to the affordability crisis, the hard truth is that we don’t control the price of oil. So what we’re doing is helping Canadians through tough times in the short term. When the Iran war started, we suspended the federal gas tax for the summer. Now it won’t solve the problem because we don’t control the source of the problem. But this and other supports are making a difference for millions of people struggling to make ends meet. As I will discuss in a moment, our laser focus on affordability also means we’re using all of our energy resources as we build massive, clean power for the economy of the future.
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Security
Second, addressing energy security means we’re going to produce our conventional oil and gas in the most environmentally sustainable ways and export them to where they will make the biggest difference. The truth is, nobody knows how long the global economy will rely on conventional energy, but, while it does, as much of that energy as possible should come from Canada, produced responsibly and with a clear focus on lowering emissions over time. It’s important to know that the global oil shock is happening, even though Canada is producing far more oil than we ever have. In fact, only two countries have increased oil production more than we have this century: the United States and Russia.
Most of our production has been for export, and almost all of those exports have gone to one country, the United States. The US pays a discount for Canadian oil, in part because it’s been our only customer.
That started to change last year when the new Trans Mountain pipeline came online. For the first time, we have direct access from our west coast to fast-growing Asian markets.
That gives us a better price for our oil, and more resources to support Canadians. It’s also why we’re developing options for a second oil pipeline to the West Coast, and it’s why we are building a series of projects to export low-carbon liquefied natural gas to partners in Asia and Europe.
As I said last time, our heavy reliance on the US market was once a strength, but it’s now a vulnerability. Put simply, we now need to build energy infrastructure to give ourselves more options, and those new options will be an important source of our strength, and they will help make our partners less vulnerable to conflicts. So much so that the G7 endorsed our strategy when it met recently in France.
Electrification
Thirdly, we are recognizing that, while we have no control over the price of oil, we have a lot of control over the price of our electricity. And this makes the issue for me a simple one. We can’t allow the ability to power our lives and put food on our table to be forever at the mercy of outside forces. We need affordable, homegrown energy, and a lot of it. Our answer to domestic energy affordability, security and sustainability is the same answer as Sir Adam Beck’s: to power our way to a stronger, more resilient, more independent country that works for all. Because the path to affordability is electrification. The path to competitiveness is electrification. The path to sustainability is electrification.
Through our new National Electricity Strategy, we will build quickly and at scale to double our energy infrastructure and build a strong Canada that is powered by clean, affordable and reliable energy. And through our complementary Nuclear Energy Strategy, we will build on Canada’s standing as one of the world’s leading nuclear nations, developing new reactors at home, exporting Canadian expertise abroad, and delivering clean baseload power and good jobs in communities right across this country.
Over the coming decades, Canadians will use more electricity because many of the things we use every day, the cars we drive, the heaters in our homes and the machines in our factories, are switching to electric power. With the right investments and electrification measures, 7 in 10 Canadian households will pay less for their total energy by 2050. That’s $15 billion right back in the pockets of Canadians. That’s because electric machines are two to four times more efficient than those they replace. So as we electrify our transportation, our buildings, our industry, the electricity slice of our energy budget grows, but the entire pie shrinks.
We start from a position of strength. Canada has amongst the lowest electricity costs in the world, and our system is already 80% non-emitting. We will need to double our grid over the next decades if we’re going to accomplish our goals. The scale of the investment required is huge, the timeline is short, and the task of getting the right mix of power is complex. If we get it wrong, then Canadians will pay higher utility bills. Be too timid, and Canadians will end up short of power, losing good jobs and remaining exposed to those foreign shocks. We can’t pursue business as usual. We must do things differently.
That means linking provincial systems. It means spreading the costs of new generation over time, so that ratepayers today don’t pay all the costs of these investments, investments that will benefit Canadians over decades. It means reforming the permitting and approval processes so we can move forward faster. And it means new partnerships with Indigenous peoples to share fairly the benefits of this transformation. And it means a willingness to use a wide range of energy sources and technologies, including hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, gas, carbon capture, geothermal.
The value of trust
As was the case with the OPEC embargoes in the 1970s, the consequences of the oil crisis caused by the Iran war will be with us for a long time. It will be much easier to restart oil and gas flow through the Strait of Hormuz than it will be to reestablish trust amongst global trading partners. In many respects, in this global disruption, trust has become the most valuable commodity. Our natural resources are a great gift, but the trust other countries place in Canada is something even more special. We’ve earned it, and we must keep earning it. Trust starts here at home. That means how we build is just as important as what we build, building sustainably so that all our developments are low carbon, building in solidarity with workers to create high-paying union jobs, and building inclusively with Indigenous peoples, with real consultation and meaningful economic participation and ownership.
That’s how we build Canada strong for all, and that’s how we must tackle the security crisis: through a large collective effort that can accomplish much more than any of us can do alone.
Establishing stability
In times of global peace and security, we’ve often taken such cooperation for granted, and sometimes have drifted into intergovernmental squabbling. We don’t live in such an easy time. Look, I promised you I wouldn’t sugarcoat tough messages. The climate plan we inherited from the previous government was well-intentioned and well-suited for the times in which it was designed. The climate crisis is still with us, and our commitment to fighting it is absolute. But the certainties of the world of 2015 are long gone. Our neighbourhood hasn’t been this hostile since Canada was founded. The world hasn’t been this unstable geopolitically since the end of the Second World War. We must establish stability amidst this chaos. The energy transition will be a source of great stability in the long run, but while it’s underway, it can equally be a great source of disruption. No country is better positioned to thrive in both eras than Canada, and we need not allow the transition from one era to another to pull us apart. The goal remains the same, but as times have changed, we must change our plan to get there.
We can’t afford to restrain the growth of an important part of our energy mix, oil and gas, to meet a short-term goal. I want to be clear on this point. The changes we have made will mean that our emissions will be higher in the next few years than they were projected to be under the previous government’s plan. But in my judgment, that plan was not sustainable over the long term. It would have been too expensive for Canadians, Canadians who are already struggling with affordability. It would have let down our partners who need new sources of energy, and it would do so right at the time when we need them to help us become more independent of the United States. And it would have been too divisive for our country. In the current environment, the old plan was an open opportunity for those people who wish to pull Canada apart, both at home and from abroad.
Our new plan
Our new plan will help build clean energy on a scale that would astound even Sir Adam Beck. It will make Canada more sustainable, more affordable and more prosperous. It will build Canada strong together.
Canada is worth it
As you enjoy Canada Day this year, I hope you get time with the people you love. And I hope also you can take a moment to reflect on the many blessings we enjoy in this great country.
Our lifestyles and freedoms are becoming even more precious as they become rarer around the world. I also hope we can all take a moment to think about the many people who came before us, who fought hard to build the things that make our country great. Yes, pioneers like Sir Adam Beck, but also the vast majority who don’t have statues in downtown Toronto or anywhere. Those who built the foundations of what we enjoy and those who fought to protect our way of life. You know, there’s a message placed in a national park in every province. Maybe you’ve seen it. It’s always in one of the most beautiful spots, etched in bronze and fused onto a stone. This is what it says:
“They will never know the beauty of this place,
see the seasons change, enjoy nature’s chorus.
All we enjoy we owe to them,
men and women who lie buried in the earth of foreign lands and in the seven seas.
Dedicated to the memory of Canadians who died overseas in the service of their country, and so preserved our heritage.”
I hope that in the coming year we can continue to build in their spirit. It will not always be easy, but Canada is worth it. It always has been.
Thank you for your time. I know it’s valuable.
