While I have sympathy for the agitating farmers in India, as they are not receiving adequate remuneration for their agricultural produce, I am afraid their current agitation is doomed to failure. I provide my reasons below:
The call to ‘Dilli kooch karo’ (march on Delhi) is wholly unrealistic. Situated between Delhi and Punjab (where most of the agitating farmers are from) lies Haryana, a BJP-ruled state. Far from any possibility of reaching Delhi, they will not even be allowed to cross the Haryana border, as it is barricaded by heavily armed Indian paramilitary troops.
The present Indian government represents the interests of large Indian and foreign corporations, which have set their sights on the vast agricultural sector of the Indian economy and are looking to make inroads into it for profit. This places the farmers, led in Punjab and elsewhere by large and medium-level farmers, in direct conflict with these corporations. Offering a Minimum Support Price (MSP) to farmers would empower them, which the corporations do not want as they aim to take over the agricultural sector, displacing the farmers. Therefore, the Indian government, acting on behalf of these corporate interests, will never grant MSP to the farmers but will continue to deceive them, as it seeks their votes in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. I do not believe that the ongoing farmers’ agitation in India will achieve much. At most, the farmers may receive some minor concessions, but if they press for more, they will face police batons.
Should the farmers attempt to cross the Haryana border, it is very likely they will be stopped by water cannons and tear gas, and if that does not work, by lathi charges and bullets. Allowing a large mob of farmers to storm the border and proceed towards Delhi would mean surrendering authority, and no government will permit that. As much as one might wish otherwise, a repeat of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre in Amritsar in 1919, or Bloody Sunday (as in St. Petersburg in January 1905) or the Vendémiaire (as in Paris in October 1795) may be in the offing, with the farmers possibly being dispersed by a ‘whiff of grapeshot’, as was done by Napoleon’s cannons.
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