Carson the Colt
CHAPTER 2
If you want to be up to date, please read my first article on Carson’s tenure in Philly: https://medium.com/@justintime25/the-case-for-carson-d339e2614c04
Chapter 2: Fresh Start
Broken Beyond Repair
After the abysmal disaster that was the 2020 season. Many media pundits, sports analysts, fans of all teams declared Carson as “Broken beyond repair”. That statement asserts that he’s irreparable. Lots went wrong that season in 2020, from worst historically decimated Oline, worst WR corp, not just bad QB play. Wentz was also faced with worst EPA per drop in NFL
Now let’s see if this Quarterback that is broken beyond repair can demonstrate that the 2020 season was the outlier.
Carson & Reich
Carson & Reich are close. Religiously close. They connected ever since Reich saw a Bible verse on Carson’s phone and it’s one of Reich’s favorite verse; 1 Peter 3:15.
Reich was a big reason Wentz took a huge step forward in year 2 compared to his rookie season. They both respect each other, and there’s great importance in a QB & coach relationship.
Little Hero Named Gio
You can’t talk about Carson Wentz without talking about Gio the Podcaster. Giovanni is a huge inspiration to me and many around the world. He is Carson Wentz #1 fan! Gio met Carson when he played in Philly and they’ve been best buddies ever since. Gio has had a plethora of surgeries in his life and Carson has been a gargantuan inspiration to him, overcoming all the hurdles. Carson has always kept in contact with Gio and when he got traded to the Colts, Carson flew Gio to see him play in Indy and gave him a signed ball!
Go subscribe to his podcast! Philly Sports with Giovanni, he’s full of zest for life. He is always about the positivity no matter what happens in our lives. He’s said something like this: “Find your happiness, find something that inspires you. Life’s too short, try and look on the optimistic side”. Gio has changed the way I view difficult situations and I thank him for that.
We need more people like you Gio! Keep being you! A hero!
Carson on his treatment from Philly fans in 2020
Philanthropy
Carson has continued to help those in need with his food truck and charities. He continues to have his food truck in Philadelphia and now one in Indianapolis.
Carson Wentz still wears the bracelet given to him by a child in Philly who lost his life to cancer several years ago. Take a closer look.
Wentz the Turnover Machine?
Prior to 2020 Wentz had the 2nd lowest INT% in NFL history behind Rodgers. However, in 2020 Carson was a turnover machine. Prior to 2020 he also had 5th best TD/Turnover ratio (INT & Fumbles) in NFL history.
Carson finished this season with 3rd lowest INT% in the NFL and kept his turnover worthy plays down
If you want to compare his Turnover Worthy Plays + his Interception rate, he ranks among the best in the league.
Just 6 weeks in and you could already see a monumental difference from 2020.
Carson on 4th & 1 conversions since 2017
1- Carson Wentz (21)
2- Ezekiel Elliot (15)
3- Josh Allen (14)
He’s clearly been clutch on QB sneaks with his 6'5, 240lbs frame. Came up clutch on many 4&1 conversions this year, especially during the Patriots game.
Making History as a Colt
Carson Wentz already broke a Colts Franchise record plus other noteworthy accolades.
Lowest INT% in Colts History
Carson currently has the lowest Interception % in Colt Franchise history. That’s incredible considering it’s his first season with Indy, and they had Manning & Luck for almost two decades. He’s been very good this year at protecting the football.
Carson is ranked 1st. Luck is ranked 5th. Manning not even in top 5.
Carson now has the 8th best INT% in NFL History.
Most passes without a Pick
Carson Wentz has set the Indy franchise record for the most pass attempts (203+) without an interception. (1. Carson Wentz 2. Jeff George 3. Peyton Manning)
Most consecutive games with 2+ TDs and 0 picks in Colts history
Peyton Manning x4 (2006–2007)
Carson Wentz x4 (2021)
One for the Log book
He became the 4th Colt QB since 2000 to log 3 consecutive games with at least 115.0 passer rating.
400 Club
Carson Wentz is the 4th player in Colts history to throw for 400 passing yards in a game joining Luck, Manning and Unitas.
QB’s with Highest YPA on 3 & 10 since 2006
1- Stafford 2021–23.1
2- Herbert 2021–16.9
3- Wentz 2021 16.1
PFF’s Offensive Player of the week
Wentz was named the Pro Football Focus’s Offensive Player of the week at one point this season. Had a 94.1 grading by PFF. I don’t take PFF gradings as infallible, there are lots of issues with their grading. It’s still nice to see that the “QB Broken beyond repair” has been exceeding expectations and recognized for it.
Monsoon in San Fran
Big Game versus the 49ers in a monsoon! Wentz came in clutch! 3 total TD’s (2 Pass 1 Rush) 0 picks.
That was a big moment for Carson especially with the horrible weather. A lot of people compare Carson to Jimmy and this matchup showed that Wentz can play better in bad weather and with less talent in passing game.
Career Night in Baltimore
Carson had a huge night in Baltimore. Probably one if not his best game, he broke career numbers that night!
Stats vs Ravens
2 TD 0 Picks
402 Yards (Career record)
Passer rating 128.5 (Career record)
YPA 11.49 (Career record)
Comp% 71.43
Colts kicker was injured during the game. Carson marched the team down the field in field goal range to win the game, and the special teams unit failed to make the game winning kick….Twice. Colts then ended up losing in OT.
Had they won that game, they would have made the playoffs regardless of the Raiders & Jags games at the end.
Cards are in your Hand
Carson’s game winning drive versus the Cards on Christmas was elite. The Cardinals were without 3 or 4 of their key players and had lost 2 games in a row, looking for a much needed win. The Colts were without approximately 10 starters (Covid + injuries), majority from the Oline (6). It was a tough task for Indy and the game was close until the very end.
Power Rankings shows Carson as the main reason they won
Final Clutch Drive in Arizona
Carson had his best drive since the Bucs game (3rd TD of the game on 4th down to TY Hilton just before halftime) in my opinion.
73 yard drive.
100% Completion %
1 TD to Patmon
His overall stats were impressive considering they were shorthanded by 10 starters in a hostile environment, in a must win game, on Christmas. He finished with 2 TD’s 0 picks, 113 Passer rating and more importantly, a win!
(Pictured)My 2 favorite players and former Eagles: Carson Wentz & Zach Ertz.
Colts 2020 vs 2021 DVOA
Colts in 2021 had better Offensive and overall team DVOA production compared to 2020 with Rivers, while their defense worsened this year. Plus they had a significantly harder schedule in 2021. In 20' Rivers faced 4 teams with winning records while this year Carson played10 teams with winning records and faced 8 teams with top 10 defenses. Carson not only had harder schedule, but faced more QB pressures than Rivers. Rivers finished the regular season with the second-lowest pressure rate in the league.
Colts were ranked 23rd in Pass protection and their best WR is Pittman who is a great WR2 not a WR1 (yet). This is a big reason why the passing game struggled at times. Carson still mustered a 27 TD season despite the lack of protection and lack weapons at WR. Carson hasn’t been perfect, lots of throws where you scratch your head and ask “How did he miss that?” “What was he thinking?” This also happens to every single QB, just seems magnified when it’s Carson because the media loves the narrative of he’s a broken QB, they will die on that hill.
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For example: Carson had 1 pick 6 this season and every time a QB has a pick 6, media/fans say they “pulled a Wentz”. Matthew Stafford LEADS the league in pick 6s this season, yet he gets no attention. Stafford is a great QB, he also has a stacked team with his OL being #1 in pass protection in NFL.
Pass protection for the Colts in 2021 was worse than any season Wentz had with the Eagles, yes even in 2020:
Even with a OL with horrendous pass protection, he still kept a passer rating way above average or within the average of the league all year. That’s impressive considering the circumstances.
Can’t Touch This
Carson Wentz was the 9th best QB at avoiding sacks this season
Flashes of 2017
There’s absolutely no doubt Carson was back to his 2018–2019 self and showed everyone that his 2020 season was the clear outlier. His 2017 MVP form is one that I think he’ll never be able to come back to. However, here are a few noteworthy career numbers he had in 2021 that reminded me of 2017.
Passer Rating
Carson finished the season with 8 games with a passer rating of over 100. Which is more than his 2017 season. He also had 4 straight games with a passer rating above 106, that was the first time Wentz had accomplished that since 2018. Combining the 4 games, he had highest rating (119.4) than any QB in the NFL during that span. He also broke his career passer rating record twice this season.
2+ TD — 0 Picks
Carson had 7 games this season with 2 or more touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’s the most he’s had in any season of his career.
3 TDs in First half
Carson Wentz had 3 touchdown passes vs the Buccaneers in the first half. He hasn’t done that since week 14 in 2017 (The game where he tore his ACL, got up, finished the drive and threw his 4th TD of the game…with a torn ACL, incredible. Which set a new franchise record for TDs (33) in a season beating McNabb’s record (32) AND Carson did that in only 13 games). Carson’s 3rd TD before the half was also on a 4th down play. Carson threw a beautiful ball and an even better catch by T.Y Hilton for the clutch TD.
They Call Him ‘Walk It To Em Wentz’
Carson’s 58 yard TD pass to Ashton Dulin was his longest in air yards since 2017. Out of the 11th deepest TD passes this season, Carson is responsible for 3 of them. His nickname is Walk it to Em, because he has a cannon of an arm. That moniker was coined by Former NFL TE and HOF Shannon Sharpe.
His longest career air yard throw is 62.8 Air yard TD pass to Hollins in 2017.
In 2021, Carson was #1 in the NFL in DVOA on deep passes (20+ air yards).
Struggling in Big Moments?
Media and fans always mention how he can’t handle the big moments how he struggles in crucial times. Not only does he have 10 game winning drives to his short career. He’s the only QB to win in GB (2019) after being down double digits (He had 3 TD’s that game). In 2019 he put a team full of injuries and practice squad guys on his back, beat a heavily favored Dallas team and won 4 straight games to win his division. In 2021 he had his best games vs tough opponents: Ravens, Rams, 49ers in a monsoon, Cardinals game where the whole Oline was out and season was on the line.
How does his 2021 season look like in crucial moments? Well, during 2nd half of games when it’s a 1 score game, at the most crucial time.
Below you can see, Carson is the 5th best QB in the NFL per his EPA. The only con would be his accuracy, he’s less accurate during those moments, however very efficient when it’s needed.
How can this be? How can a QB who is deemed Broken beyond repair, that can’t handle big moments be the 5th best QB in the NFL? Something doesn’t add up to media narratives.
This graph alone demolishes the argument that he can’t handle big moments.
His Best QBR Streak This Season
Carson Wentz had the 2nd best QBR in the NFL from week 4 to week 16. Essentially once he was healthy (week 4) to Cardinals game (week 16) before he got COVID.
Once he got COVID — as an unvaccinated player — like many on the Colts team, they all looked exhausted, uninspired, lackadaisical, nonchalant. Slow at processing during the final 2 games, and it essentially cost them a playoff spot.
League Leaders in Passing TD’s Over The Last 5 Seasons (2017–2021)
Carson Wentz has the 8th most TD Passes in the NFL over the last 5 seasons and he never had a number 1 receiver. Unlike the all the other QB’s on this list who do/did (Gronk, Godwin, Evans, Brown, Adams, Lockett, Metcalf, Kupp, Thielen, Diggs, Jefferson, Hill, Kelce, Jones Etc.).
- Tom Brady (168) 2. Russell Wilson (165) 3. Aaron Rodgers (152) 4. Patrick Mahomes (151) 5. Kirk Cousins (151) 6. Matthew Stafford (136) 7. Matt Ryan (127) 8. Carson Wentz (124)
Most Seasons with 20+ TD’s and 7 or less INT
Over the last 5 seasons, only 2 Quarterbacks have had the most seasons (4) with 20+ TD’s and 7 or less INTs. Carson Wentz & Aaron Rodgers.
Carson Wentz currently holds the 7th best TD/INT Ratio in NFL History
Carson is also the only QB this season to play all 17 games & only throw 7 INT or less.
Most TD’s off of Play Action during 2021 Season
1- Patrick Mahomes: 17 TD’s
2- Josh Allen: 14 TD’s
3- Carson Wentz: 13 TD’s
Red Zone Master
Carson Wentz Career TD/INT Ratio in Red Zone: 103 TD & 5 INT
From 2017–2019 he was 60 TD 1 INT
From 2016–2019 he was 72 TD 2 INT
From 2016–2020 he was 84 TD 4 INT
2021 Season Stats — Ranked in NFL
TD/INT Ratio — 4th
QBR — 9th
EPA — 11th
Total TD’s — 10th
TD% — 11th
INT% — 3rd
INT — 5th
Passer Rating (94.6)–-13th
DVOA — 18th
2020 Carson vs 2021 Carson
As we can see, he wasn’t “broken beyond repair”, he has improved significantly. Now he has 33 TD/7 INT in 2017, 21 TD/7 INT in 2018, 27 TD/7 INT in 2019 and now 27 TD/7 INT in 2021. Making the 16TD/15INT in 2020 the outlier. If he and the team did not have that final two game — end of season — collapse, he would have had a great chance at getting the Comeback Player of the Year Award. I believe that award may go to Joe Burrow this season, well deserved.
Disappointing End to the Season
Carson did not have proper training camp, OTA’s, nor pre season. This time he will have a full offseason and hopefully problems at certain positions will be addressed, such as; LT (Fisher) who’s been abysmal this year, they’ll definitely need a new LT and hopefully they can get a top WR1 to help Pittman. After the disappointing loss, fans/media, many want Carson out. Even after he exceeded expectations, Colts nation who’ve been fortunate to have Manning and Luck for almost 2 decades now seem incredibly impatient and unreasonable. Carson came into a new team, coming off his worst season of his career, playing a top schedule in the NFL (Hardest first 5 games in NFL) and was playing hurt some of the games. His 2 best players (Pittman/Taylor) commented and supported him on his end of season IG post (above). I wouldn’t say he had an elite year by any stretch, he had a good to great year. Some good to great moments, and definitely bad moments.
His advanced contextualized analytics demonstrate that he’s been at best Top 10 QB, at worst Top 15 QB, which is great! Majority in the media/fans want him gone next year. I don’t get it. He clearly played well enough to warrant a second year (2022). If they get him better WR weapons next year, and they miss the playoffs again, they will move on and rightfully so. He will need to reach the playoffs next year at the very least if he wants a contract extension, he’ll need to win either the division or win a playoff game. If he loses in playoffs but he’s not the reason they lost, they may keep him longer or still cut ties. But if they lose and he has a stinker, it’s highly unlikely they’ll renew his contract. The final 2 games of the season, none of the 7 Pro bowlers showed up, nor the All-Pros — apart from Jonathan Taylor but even he wasn’t playing to his standards. Every single player played poorly yet Wentz is the one being crucified by the media/fans.
GM Chris Ballard has said he wants Carson to be the QB for the next 10 year, he just would like more consistency — and he’s correct — and that Carson has made good plays and bad plays (every QB does). He mentioned that his touchdown throw in Arizona was an elite throw that only 2–3 QB’s can make, and he’s right, Carson has the talent of a top 5 QB, but it’s his psyche that’s his Achilles heel. Ballard emphasized that Carson should make the layups — the easy check down plays — instead of forcing it sometimes. I concur, too many times the primary receiver is in double/triple coverage and instead of throwing to the wide open check down, Carson tries to force it through the covered receiver for a bigger play. Which came costly in many games — most notably the second Titans game in overtime. He’s been extremely good with the RPO’s and Play Action pass, especially when you have an All-Pro RB in Jonathan Taylor. They should definitely utilize more RPO/Play Action next season if they want to be successful.
Hopefully the owner Jim Irsay and GM Chris Ballard give Carson his well deserved second year with the team and not use him as a scapegoat.
Update as of Feb 2021: Jonathan Taylor and Darius Leonard came to Wentz’s defense. Taylor on SiriusXM NFL radio: “I’m assuming Carson is going to be back because I love him in the locker room, I love him on the field. If you think about the dynamic he brought to this offense. There are situations where most QB’s would take a sack, but Carson somehow gets out of it, he’s looking downfield trying to complete the pass or taking off for the first down. And when you extend plays, you extend drives, you get more opportunities to put the ball in the end zone”. He also commented on him playing with 2 sprained ankles: “I’ve never seen a guy play with two sprained ankles, that is insane, he’s incredibly tough. I would have been in a wheelchair, I don’t know how he did it. He’s super tough, like he played a game with two sprained ankles”
Leonard on the Pat McAfee Show: “It’s great to see a QB go out there and do absolutely everything for you. For him to go out there and sprain both ankles and barely able to walk throughout the week and go out there and perform in a hostile environment and move around as he possibly can. That dude is a true Warrior man, he always puts the team first”.
Some haters will say “Well what else are they suppose to say”. Well they could be diplomatically impartial. Yet they go in great detail as to why they like him as their QB. This is huge coming from them! It will ultimately come down to Irsay and we know he doesn’t like Wentz already.
What to look Forward to Next Season
Next year they wont have the one of the toughest schedules in NFL and Carson will have full off season. Better weapons hopefully to help the passing game. They play the NFC East, Carson will play vs his former team (Eagles). The NFC East is probably the worst division in the NFL. They will have a great chance at making the playoffs next year!
Update: Traded to Washington
March 9th 2022 — Carson Wentz is traded to the Washington Commanders…
Ballard & Reich and the leaders on the team wanted to give Carson one more year. Irsay needed a scapegoat and made an emotionally impulsive move to trade Carson. Irsay never liked Wentz and was never “In” on him.
Irsay as the owner had the final say unfortunately. This means Carson will now face the Eagles & Cowboys twice a year. He will also face Indy this coming year.
Irsay was ranting to the media & throwing Wentz under the bus as the sole person to blame in a total team collapse. Meanwhile Wentz is taking “the high road” by posting a picture on IG with the caption “Building a Higher Road”. Class act, unlike Jim Irsay. The same Jim who threw Manning under the bus; you know Manning, the perennial player who helped Jim win a Super bowl. If he trashed Manning, he sure would have no trouble bashing Wentz.
“Building a Higher Road”
Carson you’re going somewhere that you’re wanted & appreciated!
Good luck in Washington! Go show Irsay that he made a monumental mistake by letting you go!
Carson Wentz comeback tour begins in 2023!
Lookout for my next updated article on his first year in Washington!
Approximate release date: Feb 2023.
Thanks for reading!
