Why Hasn’t Uhuru Congratulated Ruto?
There has been a lot of talk about President Uhuru Kenyatta’s posturing in this election, including his reaction following the SCOK ruling which unanimously upheld DP Ruto’s win. He is yet, for instance, to publicly congratulate Ruto, despite his recent address to the nation. And the question on our minds is why? Here’s how I see it:
The 2022 election was quintessential in many ways. Those who study political economy will tell you that for close to 60 years since independence, our political structure largely remained intact. A compact elite that took over the reins of state power at independence remained unbothered despite the electoral moments we have had in our country. A friend of mine, Joe Kobuthi calls them the Lancaster Elite, who include the notable family names we all know. This group engineered and maintained careful capture of our economy in various phases of our history with the examples of the Kabarnet syndicate, Anglo leasing, and the recent big infrastructure projects we have witnessed in the last 10 years. Unbeknownst to most, as this elite sustained its grip on the political economy, their ‘assistants/KYMs’ whose fathers’ names we knew not, were learning their ways, patiently building a war chest that would be useful when the right time comes. 2022 provided a window.
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So what happened in this election?
The henchmen/KYMs of these political and economic elites read the moment we were in as a country as early as 2018 when the Handshake happened, and decided to peg their messaging around it. They learnt that although Kenyans had +10,000 more kilometers of road, there were more hungry mouths (and households) in proportion to previous years. And credit to them, their messaging spoke right into the hearts of ORDINARY Kenyans. While the Lancaster elite through their self-preservation efforts continued to believe from their ivory towers that all they needed was an extra Sagana Convening to flip the mountain, or a rebranding of Parties to relive a missed opportunity, their estranged assistants were busy convincing the masses that they were their saviors. And Wanjiku believed them.
There has not been an election in the history of our country when the establishment deployed its resources to a political duel as we witnessed in this election. Looking back, I believe this was informed by the intelligence reports which showed that the ground was shifting in ways that the Lancaster elite had not imagined it would. That explains the deployment of public servants to the campaign trail, the use of mainstream media to shape political choice through doctored opinion polls, and lastly, the ‘visit’ at BOMAS by members of the National Security Advisory Council to the IEBC chair, a day before the constitutional deadline on the announcement of presidential election results. Every imaginable trick in the hat appeared to have been used, yet the Hustler engine kept revving without stopping. It can only be that the resources to run a well-oiled campaign as they had, were consolidated probably 2–3 years earlier.
Kenya’s political and economic terrain is about to shift in ways we haven’t even begun to imagine. The way I see it, 13th September 2022 will mark a defining moment in our nation, because William Ruto’s swearing-in will usher in a new shift from what we have previously witnessed. Experts have argued that it will likely be the end of crony capitalism, the beginning of religiosity without faith, the emergence of a new type of misogyny, and the validation of a new formula beyond tribe, that will guide how we organize our politics going forward. And if Ruto lives up to his word in the next 5 years, we will witness a careful decimation of dominant political families, as a new cabal of elites angle for their spaces at the decision table. We were told that the Hustler Narrative wasn’t a class war, but fellow countrymen, it is exactly that. I am however confident that our Republic will endure this historical moment happening right before our very own eyes.
So why does Uhuru seem angry or ambivalent? I believe he knows all too well what the 2022 election meant for him and the people he represents. And he’s probably yet to reconcile with that reality.
