Circa 2070 — Part 2
Rail versus Road.
Actually, it should not be Rail versus Road, but Rail and Road. They complement each other. Period. Nowhere in the world has road freight been eaten up by rail. Yes, the ratio keeps changing, but the rail share of freight movement never exceeded the road share. Never. One without the other is unthinkable. Don’t believe it? Check it out.
As we saw in Part 1 (https://tinywebs.info/rMne32), by 2070, road freight would account for 60%, with rail trailing at 30%. Now, the question is the driver's availability. Today, we know there is an acute driver shortage: 22%. Let’s not get into why truck driving isn't seen as a ‘desirable career option’ now. That’s for another day.
The moot question is: will this driver-demand-supply mismatch be corrected? No challenge is unresolvable. If not today, sometime in the future, this will get resolved.
So, how about driverless trucks or autonomous trucks to address the driver shortage? Is it a possibility in India? As India gears up for the 2047 Vikshit Bharat goal, where the country could rebrand itself as a “developed nation” through performance, what’s in store?
It is estimated that about 1% of the workforce are truck and bus drivers.
Globally, autonomous trucking is advancing rapidly: major companies and startups are piloting self‑driving trucks, and forecasts (e.g. by Boston Consulting Group/WEF) suggest that mid‑distance hub‑to‑hub autonomous trucks could account for ~20–30% of new truck sales in North America and Europe by 2035.
In India, however, severe infrastructure and regulatory challenges prevail. Roads often lack consistent lane markings or signage, and traffic behaviour (including pedestrians, animals or informal crossings) is highly unpredictable.
Crucially, current law effectively bans driverless vehicles: as of 2023, the Motor Vehicles Act has no provision for AVs, and testing of driverless vehicles is not permitted. These factors — together with public safety concerns and unionised labour issues — will delay widespread deployment.
Okay, AV is a ‘no-no’ today. What about the future?
Below we sketch decade‑by‑decade scenarios for autonomous trucks in India, with qualitative probabilities of adoption by 2030s, 2040s, 2050s, 2060s and 2070s, and discuss implications for policy and the workforce.
2030s: In the next few years (to 2030), we expect essentially no regular driverless trucking on public highways.
Government policy is explicitly opposed: Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has stated that he will “never allow driverless vehicles in India” due to concerns about job losses. The Motor Vehicles Act (1988) contains no provision for autonomy, and even test drives of driverless cars are technically illegal. Thus, by 2030, the “chance” of seeing autonomous trucks on Indian roads outside closed test sites is very low (well under 10%).
Industry and government will focus on pilots in closed or highly controlled settings. For example, trucking companies and OEMs are already partnering with tech startups on Level‑2/3 driver-assist systems and are exploring autonomy in very limited domains. Established manufacturers (Tata, Mahindra, Ashok Leyland, etc.) are reported to be trialling self-driving haulage in mines, ports, industrial campuses and other fenced complexes.
Bengaluru‑based firms like Minus Zero and RoshAI are developing autonomy “stacks” targeted at Indian road conditions, but so far only for demo vehicles or slow-speed robots. By 2030, we might see one or two proof‑of‑concept runs on designated stretches of expressway or in private logistics parks, but no mainstream freight traffic.
That does not mean alliances are not in place to bring AV into the freight traffic space. “Gagandeep Reehal, CEO and Co-founder, Minus Zero, said: “Ashok Leyland brings decades of experience in delivering high-quality products at scale, and we’re excited to partner with them in this journey of accelerating autonomous driving in India and globally. …
N Saravanan, Chief Technology Officer, Ashok Leyland, said: “Ashok Leyland has been looking for ways to reduce the cost of logistics in India in line with the Government’s National Logistics Policy. We see a role for autonomous driving in select sectors in achieving this, and we have been partnering with pioneering startups in this area. Minus Zero’s capabilities and plans impressed us, and we are excited to be working with them to develop India-specific solutions that can be scaled globally. We see spin-off benefits in developing cost-effective active safety solutions to reduce road accidents.” (https://tinywebs.info/drs9Fi)
Hang on. Meanwhile, an Indian start-up has already demonstrated its prowess in driverless trucks, though not in India, but overseas. RoshAi, India’s pioneering deep-tech startup in autonomous vehicle systems for seaports, mining zones, and industrial yards, proudly represented the nation at the Dubai Self-Driving Congress 2025.
As the only Indian company focused on deploying real-world driverless vehicle solutions in foreign territories, RoshAi demonstrated how deep tech born in India is now shaping the global future of mobility.
With live deployments and collaborations across multiple geographies, RoshAi continues to prove that innovation from India can lead the world in autonomy, safety, and industrial transformation.
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In short, the chances are 5–10%.
Major barriers in this decade will be infrastructure and law. Highways need uniform digital maps and upgraded signalling before autonomous vehicles can operate safely. Public perception is tentative — most Indians distrust “driverless” technology, especially given unpredictable rural traffic and urban congestion.
On the positive side, India faces a serious driver shortage and extremely high accident rates — India has ~11% of global road fatalities despite only ~1% of the world’s vehicles — suggesting a strong long‑run incentive to automate. But these safety and efficiency arguments will not overcome the immediate practical obstacles before 2030.
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By the 2040s, the situation could shift if global technology matures and policymakers adapt. Assuming the government revises rules and designates autonomous freight corridors, we expect limited deployment of driverless trucks on major expressways and logistics routes. Conditions that enable this include: consistent road markings on multi‑lane highways, 5G/V2X network coverage, and clear liability rules. (India’s Smart Cities Mission and new digital highway projects could facilitate these upgrades.)
In this decade, autonomous trucks would likely operate in hub‑to‑hub mode: for example, platoons of self‑driving trailers between distribution centres on the Golden Quadrilateral, returning in convoys under supervision. Such platooning reduces fuel use and can operate in limited domains; it’s being piloted abroad and might first appear in India’s industrial belts.
By ~2040, we might see 10–20% of long‑haul freight kilometres handled by autonomous trucks under ideal scenarios. This aligns with global trends: WEF/BCG analysts forecast ~26% of new trucks to be mid‑distance autonomous in the US/EU by 2035, so India achieving a third of that (say ~8–10%) by 2040 seems plausible.
On the other hand, unless regulations change dramatically, autonomous fleets will still be rare. Indian experts note that even in developed countries, autonomous trucks are 10–15 years away from ubiquity. Therefore, by the late 2030s/early 2040s, the “chance” of significant (say,>20%) driverless truck adoption in India remains moderate at best. Perhaps ~20–30% under an optimistic scenario; in a conservative scenario, it might remain <10%.
Factors likely to drive adoption in this decade include labour cost pressures and safety reforms. If the economy suffers severe driver shortages or fatal-accident targets (e.g., Vision Zero by 2030) tighten, the government might grudgingly permit autonomous trials. We might also see intra-city shuttles or last-mile AVs by this time, which could pave the way for acceptance of autonomous transport in general.
Barriers in the 2040s will include continued rural road hazards and legal inertia. However, early movers — logistics firms, tech startups, and state governments — may exploit “controlled” deployments. For example, exclusive truck lanes or dedicated freight corridors (with smart infrastructure and remote monitoring) could host driverless convoys. Incremental advances, such as mandatory ADAS (adaptive cruise, lane‑keep) starting in 2027, will also improve highway safety, serving as stepping stones.
In summary, the 2040s may see the first real steps of autonomous trucking in India, but only on restricted routes — giving a roughly 20–30% chance of noticeable adoption by 2050 within that decade.
By the 2050s, if earlier pilots succeed, we expect a substantial shift. Autonomous trucks could become commonplace on national freight routes. If 2030s‐40s infrastructure investments and policy catch up, by mid‑century, India might permit L4 (hands-free) autonomous trucks on highways and possibly even some city routes. China and the US aim for heavy‑duty autonomy by 2040–50, and if India follows, we might see perhaps half of all highway freight hauled by driverless trucks in the 2050s. In other words, the probability of major adoption could rise to ~50–70% by 2060.
Key drivers at this stage would be: technology maturation, economic benefit, and regulatory change. Technologically, AI systems should be far more robust by 2050 — able to handle rain, fog, and complex traffic — and 5G/V2X infrastructure should be widespread in cities and on highways. The total cost of autonomous trucks would fall with scale, making them competitive. Industry benefits (no driver breaks, 24/7 operation) will make the economic case compelling. The PRS analysis notes that driverless long-haul trucks avoid rest stops, increasing efficiency.
Policy-wise, we assume at least partial liberalisation: for example, the government might restrict autonomy to certain corridors or require a safety operator for a transitional period, but allow commercial use. Some form of national AV regulation would likely be in place by 2050 (e.g. safety standards, digital licensing, insurance protocols).
If these enablers materialise, autonomous trucks could capture the majority of new high-capacity freight sales in this decade. A rough estimate: by 2050, maybe 50–70% of heavy-truck freight (at least the long-haul portion) could be driverless, assuming similar adoption curves to Western markets (where 26% of new trucks were forecast to be autonomous by 2035, so India could reach that level by mid-century).
There will still be holdouts: small owners, intra-city routes with complex intersections, and regions with poor connectivity may lag. But on average, the 2050s will likely mark a tipping point at which autonomous freight becomes a standard option. The “chance” of seeing large-scale operations in this decade is therefore high, on the order of 50–70%.
Looking to the 2060s, autonomous trucking in India would be largely mature. If the transition has gone smoothly, by 2060, most new trucks on key corridors will be fully self-driving (Level 4/5). Electrification and autonomy often go hand-in-hand: many driverless trucks are expected to be electric, so India’s push for zero-emission vehicles would align with this shift. We could imagine nearly all intercity freight being hauled by driverless vehicles, leaving only local delivery or vintage vehicles driven manually.
In this scenario, the probability of near-universal deployment is very high (perhaps 80–90%). By this time, the remaining road infrastructure gaps would be largely closed: highways will have been upgraded to smart roads, and AI systems will have been trained on India’s data for decades. Autonomous trucks would routinely platoon on highways from Chennai to Delhi, cross-border corridors (if harmonised), and national logistics networks. Driverless minibuses and on-campus shuttles would also normalise the technology in the public eye.
One important factor: labour and social adaptation. By 2060, the millions of truck drivers displaced by automation must have been absorbed into other sectors (possibly in vehicle maintenance, remote supervision, or entirely new sectors). Without robust social planning, there could be major social unrest, but one hopes policy is prepared.
In sum, by the 2060s, the “chance” of Indian trucking being dominated by autonomous trucks is very high. Only specialised exceptions would retain human drivers, and even those might use shared high-level controls or remote piloting.
By the 2070s, fully autonomous trucking will be the norm in India. Any remaining legacy vehicles will be antiques rather than workhorses. At this point, driverless trucks will likely have conquered virtually all road conditions. Advances in AI might allow a single self-driving truck to handle the narrowest rural roads, heavy monsoon rains, and chaotic city streets — tasks that seemed impossible in 2025. In this far future, it is reasonable to say the chance of driverless trucks operating on all suitable routes is effectively ~100%.
The implications are profound. The social and economic landscape would have fully adapted to the new paradigm. The labour formerly in driving would have transitioned to new roles (e.g. technicians, remote supervisors, logistics planners, or non-transport sectors). Urban traffic could be optimised in concert with autonomous cars; road safety could be transformed (autonomous system–led fleets reduce accidents dramatically). Indeed, studies of driverless fleets abroad suggest crashes drop by >70%, implying huge gains for India’s road safety by this stage.
At this late date, our scenario assumes that all technical, legal and ethical issues have been largely resolved. Continuous connectivity and even terrestrial charging infrastructure (smart roadways, inductive lanes, etc.) may be in place to support continuous operation. Thus, by 2070, the prospect of non-autonomous heavy trucks would be nearly inconceivable: essentially 100% of intercity freight would be autonomous.
What steps should be initiated to realise driverless trucks in Circa 2070?
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