Bulling missiles
Taurus missiles controversy continues to serve as a background of yet another of the Studio Kvartal 95 concert tours in the EU, met with a lukewarm reception even by the “coalition of the willing sniffers.” Nothing scary or tide-changing to see here, though.
Taurus production as homegrown in Ukraine is downright unrealistic due to absence of tech expertise in there and troubles with the reliability that are said to have plagued even German original missiles. Taurus transfer to Ukraine, on the other hand, will bring little help but great risk of further dowgrading relations with Russia; not that Germany, at the current stage of the EU deconfinement, could be delivered from new, deeper crises, both political and economic (do you see the ghost borders of the GDR rise again?), but nonetheless.
The Ukraine war has zero military solutions that classic cruise missiles may cover. It ascended to the higher (and, simultaneously, more primitive in terms of military strategy or the art of war sensu stricto) tech level, somewhat similar to what Stanisław Lem had been envisioning in his pseudepigraphical futurology. See also Peace on Earth about the war of drones and robots on the Moon, whence the fictitious review was excerpted.
Only €400 mln from the entire package would be spent on the military production in Ukraine proper. Namely, production of long-range drones such as the Bars and An-196 Liutyi, as well as Flamingo-type UAVs. This concludes the actual hardware which may come out of it.
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As I have repeatedly pointed out, for both formally participating belligerents in the Ukraine war, especially Zelensky’s clique, the conflict is a goal, not a tool.
However, when the clock strikes the Halloween midnight for Ukraine, it’d be due to shortage of personnel, not the materiel —Zelensky’s regime faces increasing problems with (brutally press-ganged) conscripts, who are already in short supply; they are treated like (I can’t but borrow the favourite Dem Party zealots’ cliché) convicted felons.
Not a semblance of a realistic scenario for Kiev to retake any of the lost provinces, but they don’t feel any serious discomfort about this as long as the frontline crawls westward only slowly.
Strategic thinking isn’t their best talent, and the only modeling recipe available appears to be simple linear extrapolation.
Maybe their backers in the EU should have tried bubble sort?
Meanwhile on our brane, not the one where authors of pro-Ukrainian propaganda dwell, advances of Russian forces in Donbass and Sumy region of Ukraine during May (which hasn’t come to close yet) are the strongest since autumn.
