Are AVs for People and Freight Close to Scaling?

For decades, people have dreamt of letting go of the steering wheel when driving conditions are boring, e.g., on the freeway or in heavy traffic. Significant resources have been committed in the past few years to make this a reality. This is particularly true over the past two years as the industry experienced staffing increases, consolidation and vertical integration supported by massive fund raising (see my Nov. 2020 and Apr. 2021 articles).

Level 4 autonomous driving (L4 AD) tech developers continue to increase the number of pilots with or without safety operators. The most mature ones have launched or announced commercial activities in the new term, addressing mainly robotaxi, long haul trucking as well as last- and middle mile logistics. Other players focus on less sexy but highly relevant spaces such as mining, agriculture, or yard operations. A few hundred vehicles currently provide commercial service across these segments without an operator onboard while more do so with a safety operator.

Where are we today? How and when can we expect these activities to scale?

Looking back

About five years ago, Waymo, Cruise or Zoox were planning to launch commercial robotaxi services before the end of the last decade. What happened? Only Waymo did so, starting outside in Phoenix in late…