Darwinian Evolution of the AD/ADAS Tech Ecosystem

Tens of billions of dollars have been invested in the development of autonomous driving (AD) and ADAS technology over the past decade and a half. The industry has gone through the roller coaster of Gartner’s Hype Cycle, reaching a high for AD tech around 2017. It seems that we have now come out of the through of disillusion, through not without pain.

Whereas several companies are forging ahead with commercial deployments, some have pivoted to less demanding use cases, while others have collapsed. This Darwinian process, which I first analyzed in November 2022 in “Autonomous Driving Consolidation Intensifies”, has accelerated. Recently, large amounts of founding have gone to a select group of companies (more below) whereas many have faced difficulties raising capital, which has led to business rescoping or worse.

I recently published a new version of the AD/ADAS Ecosystem Landscape with my partners at Autonomy. Over 400 companies are featured across 16 domains including sensing, compute, software, mapping, simulation & validation and more. A high-definition version can be downloaded here. The document will be updated overtime to reflect changes in the ecosystem.

Robotaxis: Progress and Setbacks

Back in May 2022, I analyzed the state and promises of robotaxi and autonomous trucking…