New signings. An old new face in the dugout. An analysis of the Real Marid squad and predictions for the 2025/26 season.
When a team like Real Madrid fails to win any major trophy and gets embarrassed by its bitterest rival in four meetings, all in four different stadiums, there would always be a lot of changes. And that is exactly what happened this summer. As of the time of writing this, reports from Spain suggest the club does not intend to make further changes to the squad, unless there is an unplanned exit. Franco Mastantuono taking the #30 shirt leaves a space for another first team registration, but that seems far-fetched. On the eve of the team’s opening game of the season, let us analyze the squad to see if we have the necessary personnel to compete on all fronts.
Goalkeepers
There are no surprises in goal. Thibaut Courtois is the undisputed number one while Andriy Lunin is the able backup. Given the number of midtable clubs that could do with a goalkeeping upgrade, I continue to be surprised at the lack of offers for Lunin. His performances two seasons ago when we won La Liga and Champions League double indicated that he was primed for a bigger role. But if he is fine with being a backup to Courtois for the foreseeable future, I am not one to complain.
Defence
Given the mess at right back last season, it is refreshing to have two world class options in Dani Carvajal and Trent Alexader-Arnold. I have not always been his biggest fan and probably would not have signed him if we did not get him as a free signing, but I think Trent starts as the first option until he loses his spot, even if his performances thus far have not met the high expectations.
A lot of fans were skeptical of whether Alvaro Carreras was worth the €50 million price tag, or whether he was even much of an upgrade over Fran Garcia, especially after the latter’s early showing at the Club World Cup. Not me. Just going by what other similar left backs were purchased for alone, I thought he was worth that. But even more, he offers positionally flexibility in a way the others do not: he can play as a left center back, a traditional left back, and a left wing back. And he combines some of Fran’s and Ferland Mendy’s best attributes. There are questions about his 1v1 defending and his penchant for jumping into tackles instead of assessing risks vs rewards, but he is only 22. He is the obvious starter, with Fran expected to be the first-choice backup. Mendy signed a new three-year contract at the beginning of last season, a rare wrong decision by the club, in hindsight. The best would be for both parties to come to an amicable agreement to sever ties but that is not expected to happen this month. Looking to the future, I would look to move on from Fran and sign another backup as soon as next summer. Who knows, maybe Diego Aguado shows enough with Castilla next season to be considered for that role.
In central defence, Dean Huijsen is the undisputed starter at left center back, with Militao, Rudiger, and Asencio fighting for a spot next to him. It would be amiss not to highlight how exceptional Huijsen has been in this team, albeit in limited minutes. We are talking about a player — still only 20, it must be noted — that is in the discussion of Europe’s best defenders of the next decade. The club did not waste time haggling over his €60 million release clause and it’s proven to be a wise decision. Just imagine if we had done our usual nonsensical bickering and lost him to one of the Premier League nouveau riche clubs. We would not have signed someone else, as usual, and we would have regretted it. Based on evidence and reporting thus far, it seems a safe bet that Militao will get the nod to start at right center back, at least at the beginning. I expect Alonso to use the three-at-the-back system a few times, which gets another defender into the side. Alaba will be the backup to Huijsen, on the rare occasions he is healthy. Both he and Rudiger are entering the final year of their respective contracts and unless something changes drastically, they should not be renewed. That opens up two roster spots (or three, depending on the result of Raul Asencio’s case) next season, which the club will have to fill. If his comeback from his long ACL injury absence goes as well as hoped by the club, Joao Martinez should get one of those spots. He has looked good in preseason with Castilla. The club can also trigger its cheap buyback option on Jacobo Ramon, who had a good debut for Como at the weekend. I suspect Alonso will ask for a left-footed option as backup to Huijsen but Carreras is another viable emergency option. Two players we missed out on because we wanted to be cheap, Leny Yoro at Man Utd and Cristhian Mosquera at Arsenal, are two examples of long-term scouting we should already be doing.
Midfield
Aurelien Tchouameni starts at the undisputed six. Camavinga’s ongoing fitness struggle makes it difficult to assess where Alonso sees him, but the assumption is that it will be as backup to Tchouameni. I do not think he has that profile, but I am also not Alonso. Valverde and Bellingham should complete the midfield three, regardless of how Alonso wants to set up. Arda Guler has been the biggest beneficiary of Alonso’s arrival and has been given the task of establishing control in the middle. We had another summer of Ceballos threatening to leave for Real Betis, but he is expected to stay, to the surprise of nobody. Modric’s exit should create more minutes for him. When I did this exercise this time last year, my main complaint was the lack of a Toni Kroos profile in the squad. I thought Ceballos was the closest in the squad, but injuries meant Ancelotti could not trust him fully. Alonso has pinpointed Guler for that role, and Bellingham missing the start of the season should see a continuation of that. We do have options in Castilla. With Manuel Angel struggling to be healthy enough to play consistently with the youth side, another academy player, Thiago Pitarch, has emerged as the most likely to be getting minutes with the first team. Pitarch, 18, was not even playing with Juvenil A, the under-19 team, at the beginning of last season. As usual, the best approach is to be cautious about an academy player getting promoted to the first team in a position where we have a lot of bodies. Having said that, given the closeness between Alonso and new Castilla coach Alvaro Arbeloa, the chances of these kids getting minutes with the first team are as concrete as they’ve ever been. They just need to be ready when called upon, like Asencio did last season.
Attack
Mbappe, Vinicius, Rodrygo, Brahim, and Endrick are the holdovers from last season. They are joined by Gonzalo Garcia and Franco Mastantuono, signed from River Plate for €45 million. Gonzalo Garcia finished last season strongly in the first team after belatedly getting minutes under Ancelotti, before showcasing himself at the CWC under Alonso and earning a first team promotion. Mastantuono will presumably be the starter at right wing — Alonso is said to like him a lot. Attack is the one area where the squad is very strong in quality and depth. That is, assuming no one leaves.
Which brings me to Rodrygo.
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There have been murmurs of Rodrygo not liking his role on the team and his camp speaking to other big European teams, with a view to a move. In fact, the expectation in Spain seems to be that he is more out than in. But, speaking at his press conference ahead of the opener against Osasuna, Alonso poured cold water on the noise and said he expects Rodrygo to stay. That is probably mere coach talk. His use of the player at the CWC suggests he would be fine if Rodrygo was to move on.
Obviously, the club would be foolish to reject a €100 million offer for a player that seems to not be a firm fixture in the manager’s plans. However, a more pertinent question is whether the club should actively look to sell him, especially without an obvious plan to get a replacement. One of the reasons put forward by reporters who expect him to be sold seems to be that the player would like to play more on the left, where Vini is the undisputed starter. I am skeptical of this. One, the player has said his preferred position is through the middle. Second, he is close friends with Vini and would not hinge his stay on replacing Vini as the starting left winger.
I am shocked at the number of people who think Rodrygo was terrible last season, without contextualizing minutes and roles:
Even in an admittedly average season, his best form came in January, when Vini was injured or suspended, and he played on the left during that short period. That was when we opened up a seven-point lead at the top of La Liga, which coincidentally was frittered away when Vini returned. Correlation, of course, is not causation. But that did happen.
Then there is this:
This is not data of a good player. Limited sample size caveat, Rodrygo has been excellent when deployed as a left winger. He is not going to start ahead of Vini, but we should not be actively looking to sell him either.
I have already written more words than I would like to spend on a player who might still stay at the club after all. But make no mistake, selling Rodrygo would be a big risk, a risk that we do not have to undertake. An injury to one of Vini or Mbappe and suddenly our attack will consist of one of those two plus Endrick, Mastantuono, Garcia and Brahim. Three of those four are kids. Mastantuono might not have ever been to Europe until this month! Our attack last season was worse than Barca’s by some distance and they’ve added an experienced depth in Rashford. We cannot be gutting our own attack in the hope that some 18-year-old develops into a superstar immediately. I would understand the club taking a big money for Rodrygo, but I would not do it. At least not this summer. Maybe next year, after seeing what we have in Mastantuono. Even if that means taking less that we would have gotten for him this year.
Predictions
The squad is in a far better shape than it was last season. But I still think there are a few clubs clearly better than us at this point. So, this is how I see things:
La Liga — 2nd
Champions League — Quarter finals
Copa Del Rey — Winners
Spanish Super Cup — Winners
