Could Russia’s Political System Collapse Suddenly?

Historical Lessons and the Fragility of a War Economy

Vladimir Putin and economist Igor Lipsits: Russia’s war economy, regional tensions and the challenges facing the Kremlin.

History offers numerous examples of regimes that appeared stable for decades, protected by powerful armies, secret police and extensive state control, yet collapsed within a remarkably short period. The Shah’s regime in Iran in 1979, Nicolae Ceaușescu’s government in Romania in 1989, and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime in Tunisia in 2011 are notable examples. In each case, economic hardship, public discontent, divisions within the ruling elite and the loss of military support converged, bringing down political systems that had endured for years, sometimes within just a few days.

Russia itself experienced two such upheavals in rapid succession in 1917. The hardships of the First World War intensified food shortages, inflation and public frustration. In March 1917, thousands of soldiers in the Petrograd garrison refused orders to suppress demonstrators and joined the uprising, forcing Tsar Nicholas II to abdicate. Thus, more than 300 years of Romanov rule came to an end within a matter of days.

However, the Provisional Government that replaced the monarchy did not last long either. Its decision to continue the war and its failure to resolve the land question further fuelled public dissatisfaction. Lenin and the…