#1| Inquest
As I drove up the M6 on Monday evening, I decided to put on the ‘Keep Right On’ podcast. Dick and Dicken (or Dicken and Dick?) are two shrewd operators in a world of fluff, aggregation and cliches. Yet, I found myself disagreeing with them on a few occasions, and it provided the motivation for the first iteration of the NewsOnBlues editorials. A bit of juxtaposition — I guess — as editorials are not ‘news’. However, here we are.
The crux of their podcast episode was a short debrief following the 1–1 draw to 10-man Sheffield United, and then a 35-minute inquest into Blues’ season. Perhaps, though it was over after the Middlesbrough loss, the first real material inclination that Blues’ season is all but done. Whilst I disagree on some of the arguments and conclusions put forth by Dick and Dicken, one thing we can agree on is that there is a need for an inquest.
The Davies Dilemma
When hiring a young yet well-experienced coach in Chris Davies, Knighthead would have hoped his experience as an understudy to Rodgers and Postecoglou would have meant that he quickly took to the role of a ‘Head Coach’ (or manager — some argue over this definition, but in modern football there is no longer a tangible difference between the two). He definitely seemed to. Whilst the infamous ‘100 goals 100 points’ joke target was not met, 111 points were achieved, and this is a world record amount of points. This should not be taken lightly. It is a mammoth achievement and somehow went under the radar in the media during the summer, and now with Blues fans at the backend of this season. Davies should be commended. Yet, we’d be lying to ourselves if there were not some warning signs in the midst of that record-breaking League 1 season.
If you cast your mind back to some games last season, particularly away from home, you will be reminded of games that were goalless for 70–80 minutes, only for Blues’ quality and fitness to shine through in the latter stages of a game. An eerie foreshadowing of what we’d come to watch on the road this season — however, without the gulf in quality to bail us out. In 8 of 18 away games this season, Chris Davies’ side have had 1 or fewer shots on target per game. A damning statistic that illustrates the story of Birmingham City’s season.
Yet what’s more concerning is our ‘stellar’ home record, or at least the myth of it. In 19 games, we’ve won 9, drawn 8 and lost 2. Not a bad record by any means, but also not a record that is deserving of the word fortress that is thrown around every couple of hours by the club’s social media team.
To put it kindly, Blues look like a team that pretends to want to win games. Like a horse quietly ridden out of the back of the telly one month before Cheltenham (Dan Skelton, anyone?) or a dad graciously losing to his young son in an arm-wrestle. The endeavour and enthusiasm are there — at least sometimes — , but the execution is not. This week is an example. We nearly allowed an on-the-beach QPR side (worst opposition performance of all season? Yes, even including any of the sides we’ve put 4 against at home this season) back into the game on Wednesday night, and we watched slow rotation after slow rotation versus the 10 men of Sheffield United on Saturday afternoon, to no avail. There are other examples too.
This is relevant because these rotations and patterns are a tactical instruction from the manager — though their slow, bewildered nature is probably not. Yet, we have seen no change other than a switch of plan to hit long balls to Jay Stansfield away from home. That’s me being a little facetious, but the stubborn loyalty to the system (more on that later) has been one of Davies’ undoing all season.
Among wage bill and transfer spend metrics (i.e, the notion that league position of a club, on average, tracks to the position of the club in the wage bill league), Davies is underperforming. However, I do think fans may be less harsh on him if the performances weren’t so poor away from home (and at home, half the time).
Back to our podcast friends in Dick and Dicken, they argued that they were whelmed (not under or overwhelmed) by Davies and the league position of the club this season. Mainly, because Blues have yet to finish in the top half of the Championship since Gary Rowett Volume 1. I found this to be a polite response from two media men who need to keep up their good relations with the club (rightly so). For me, this is a red herring. In investing, all products/stock recommendations come with the tagline of ‘past performance is not indicative of future performance’ and the same should apply to football. Just because Blues have not finished in the top 12 in a decade should not mean that just a top 12 finish is acceptable.
The circumstances are wildly different. Money spent, player quality, stable upstairs structure. These are just three examples of the differences between 8 of the last 9 championship seasons and now. Davies will not be judged on the performance of Cotterill/Karanka/Clotet/Bowyer/Rooney by Knighthead, and neither should we judge him by the last 9 poor Championship seasons before this one. Blues should be doing better — but have they been poor enough for Davies to lose his job? That’s the million-pound question.
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This then brings us, briefly, to the fallacy that Knighthead are at fault for causing high expectations. If you have compiled a squad with a wage bill that is in the top 7 of the Championship (which we have) and have quality players (we do), you should be challenging for the playoffs. Or at least flirting with them. We have done neither. Just because Blues have not finished in the top 12 for the last decade doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be challenging for the playoffs.
Recruitment
Recruitment this season has been nothing short of baffling. Chris Davies has a clear system and structure that needs specific archetypes. A right-footed right centre-half and a left-footed centre-half to open up passing lanes. A left-footed inverted winger to come in off the right. A creative number 10/AM that breaks lines and full-backs that can receive the ball with comfort when pressed.
Step in our marquee signings. Phil Neumann, a good but right-footed right centre-half (our best player and captain already plays this position?). Carlos Vicente, a *reportedly* £7m right winger who is so right-footed he may as well not have his left. Marvin Ducksch, a second striker who, whilst he is very creative, cannot really break lines. This is without mentioning the fact we did not sign a left-back or a left-sided left-footed centre half until the back end of the summer window, when any sane person knew these should’ve been our first signings. Even less mentioned about who they actually brought in and the fact that our backup, makeshift left-back is now our starting left centre-half. This is not the fault of any of these signings. They are good players and are not at fault for not fitting in perfectly to Davies’ system.
The pushback on this criticism is that the transfer world is never as simple as it is made out to be. This is true. The recruitment team may further argue that the correct quality of player may not have been available. I find that laughable (see Wrexham signings) but also downright illogical. The whole point of a manager having a set tactical system is that they require specific archetypes for the system to work and therefore, a lesser-quality player is better than a square peg in a round hole that breaks the whole system.
Hence why, with all respect to him, Kieran Dowell (available in January) worked so well for us last season. Arguably, the same could be said for Ben Davies, but that would be harsh, and I’m still of the opinion that he would’ve been a worthwhile addition this summer. The key question to be put to the recruitment team this season is not about the quality of player or potential overspending (please can people stop saying we spent £10m on Kyogo when we only spent £4m to purchase him from France) but rather, why have a manager with a set system if you’re not going to recruit inline with that system?
These arguments may not save Chris Davies’ job, but he can certainly claim to future employers that he was not helped by lacklustre, scattergun recruitment.
A little bit on Ducksch
Criticism of Ducksch this season is a nonsense. Yes, I wish he hadn’t got the acceleration of 1.0L Ecoboost Ford Fiesta (sorry to any owners out there) and didn’t go missing for periods of games. Yet, he (along with Gray and Roberts in the first half of the season) is the only attacking player who has stood up and performed when it mattered. The squad is littered with good players. Not all of them have put their money where their mouth is this season and stood up to the task. He is also, by some distance, the most creative player in the team — even if some of his inventions don’t come off. He’s grown into the season excellently and is about the only one to do so.
To Conclude
Blues should be higher in the table. Blues should also have better recruitment, especially considering the money we’ve thrown around this season. The real question to come from this inquest is whether Chris Davies keeps his job at the end of the season. I’ll never publicly call for a manager to go, especially when he achieved 111 points last season. He, clearly, is going to grow into a good manager too. However, I do wonder whether his growth will be too slow for Knighthead (not his fault) and whether they’d rather turn to a manager whose system can get a tune out of these clearly talented (and expensive) players rather than rip up the whole squad for a third time. He’d be safe if the performances had been good. They haven’t been, bar a three-week period in November, a two-week period in Jan/Feb and on the opening game against Ipswich. I think that will inevitably be his undoing.
P.S — please do listen to the Keep Right On podcast, it is very good.
