Election 2025 Overreaction: Overperformance
Last Tuesday, in the statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats had their best night as a party since the 2020 presidential election. Up and down the ballot, Democrats were able to mobilize their core voters and persuade voters who had supported Donald Trump in the November election. Former Virginia Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and New Jersey Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill were able to run on bread-and-butter issues that did not fall into the culture war campaigns that doomed Democrats in 24. In taking a deep dive into the exit polling, voters expressed their displeasure with President Trump.
Both Spanberger and Sherill outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 numbers, which led to her defeat across many swing states last year. The turnout exploded and exceeded the predictions by many pollsters, which led to the lopsided victory’s
Here are the most interesting data points from the exit polls taken by NBC.
Each data point will be labeled as
Data Point
Abigail Spanberger’s Percentage in 2025 Virginia Governor’s Race
Mikie Sherrill’s Percentage in 2025 New Jersey Governor’s Race
Kamala Harris Percentage in 2024 Presidential Election
Gender
Both genders have seen an increase in voting differences this century. The so-called Gender Gap continues to grow, with men voting for Republicans by a significant margin, while women are more likely to vote Democratic. Both Spanberger and Sherrill increased their margins with both genders, which propelled them to victory.
Men
Spanberger 48%
Sherrill 49%
Harris 42%
Woman
Spanberger 65%
Sherrill 62%
Harris 53%
Race
In 2024, Donald Trump was able to improve his vote share with multiple minority groups that helped him win the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Once again, both Sherrill and Spanberger were able to outperform Kamala Harris, providing future Democrats with a blueprint to follow in future elections.
White
Spanberger 47%
Sherrill 47%
Harris 42%
Black
Spanberger 92%
Sherrill 94%
Harris 85%
Hispanic
Spanberger 67%
Sherrill 68%
Harris 52%
Asian
Spanberger 79%
Sherrill 83%
Harris 54%
White Woman
Spanberger 55%
Sherrill 53%
Harris 45%
Black Men
Spanberger 88%
Sherrill 92%
Harris 77%
Latino Men
Spanberger 55%
Sherrill 61%
Harris 43%
Latino Woman
Spanberger 78%
Sherrill 73%
Harris 60%
Age Breakdown
Certain age groups participate more than others in voting, which can sometimes lead to higher changes in voting patterns. Trump was able to make inroads with younger voters, and some question whether that will be a trend towards Republicans or a vote just for Trump.
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White Age 18–29
Spanberger 61%
Sherrill 59%
Harris 49%
White Age 30–44
Spanberger 51%
Sherrill 55%
Harris 42%
Men 18–29
Spanberger 57%
Sherrill 56%
Harris 47%
Men 30–44
Spanberger 52%
Sherrill 61%
Harris 43%
Women 18–29
Spanberger 81%
Sherrill 81%
Harris 61%
Women 30–44
Spanberger 71%
Sherrill 71%
Harris 54%
Women 45–64
Spanberger 61%
Sherrill 58%
Harris 49%
Education Breakdown
Another large voting discrepancy this century has been educational attainment. Where voters with college degrees vote Democrat, and those who don’t vote more Republican. This represents a complete reversal over the last couple of decades, where Democrats would typically attract blue-collar voters, while the GOP could count on voters with a college degree. Although Sherrill and Spanberger each improved the Democratic numbers, this demographic will be one to watch for future elections.
High School or Less
Spanberger 45%
Sherrill 43%
Harris 35%
Some College No Degree
Spanberger 55%
Sherrill 52%
Harris 47%
Associates Degree
Spanberger 53%
Sherrill 54%
Harris 41%
Income Breakdown
Different income levels can lead to varying voting patterns. With inflation still running wild, voters responded by punishing the party in the White House. If President Trump and the GOP can’t get a hold of economic policy and voters still aren’t happy, Democrats are in for a big midterm next November.
Under $30,000
Spanberger 68%
Sherrill 73%
Harris 50%
$30-$49,000
Spanberger 58%
Sherrill 68%
Harris 45%
$50-$99,000
Spanberger 57%
Sherrill 50%
Harris 46%
Conclusion
Spanberger, being the first woman to serve as governor in Virginia’s history, and Sherrill, the second in New Jersey’s, could be bellwethers going into 2026, when many women are running for offices ranging from the United States Senate to local city councils. The best night for the Democratic Party since 2020 could provide a roadmap for future elections.
Exit Poll Information
The NBC News Exit Poll is conducted by SSRS, an independent research company, on behalf of ABC, The Associated Press, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC. The networks together prepare the questionnaire. More information about SSRS can be obtained by visiting www.ssrs.com.
The 2025 poll, conducted Oct. 22 -Nov. 4, includes representative samples of registered voters in California (n=~4,000), New Jersey (n=~4,000), New York City (n=~3,700) and Virginia (n=~4,000). The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone with data collected in person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts per state/city, excluding California. Respondents can complete the poll in English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design effects, is expected to be approximately plus or minus 2 percentage points in California, 2.1 percentage points in New Jersey, 2.2 percentage points in New York City and 2.1 percentage points in Virginia.
