Fate of 38: Primary Recap
Prestin Escapes, Home District Carries the Day
The Republican Primary for the Upper Peninsula’s seat in the state senate concluded in August, ending a yearlong campaign that became known for its nastiness and personal attacks. In the end, current 108th District State Rep. Dave Prestin ran up large margins in his southern and eastern district, offsetting a hard-charging former 108th District State Rep. Beau LaFave, who performed well in the western part of the U.P. It was a late-night breakdown of the county-by-county returns. Prestin wasn’t declared the winner until after midnight EST.
Voting Breakdown
In reviewing the district’s registered voters, each region of the U.P. represented a third of the vote; the central U.P., anchored in Delta and Marquette counties, accounted for over half of the total vote. The Western U.P., which at one point was the district’s population center in the late 20th century, had solid turnout, but LaFave needed more.
Here is a breakdown of each region.
East
Chippewa, Luce, Mackinac, and Schoolcraft Counties. 3,123 total votes, or 9% of the total vote.
In these counties, Prestin had a 63% margin (1,953) to LaFave’s 37% (2,170). Prestin swept all four counties, which are part of his current state house district. He used his 783-vote margin to offset losses in the Western U.P.
Central
Alger, Delta, Marquette, and Menominee. 16,475 total votes, or 52% of the total vote.
In these counties, Prestin received 58% (9,547) to LaFave’s 42% (6,928). The central U.P. is the district’s population center, and Prestin won big in Delta and Menominee counties, which he and LaFave previously represented and which were two of the most-watched counties for political observers. LaFave did raise eyebrows by winning Marquette County, but Prestin won by a 2,619-vote margin, which proved to be the total margin of victory.
West
Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, and Ontonagon. 12,600 total votes, or 39% of total votes cast.
In the far western U.P., LaFave garnered 56% (7,029) to Prestin’s 44% (5,571). Outside of LaFave’s home base of Dickinson County, neither had represented any territory, and this proved to be a battleground where LaFave worked harder and garnered more votes even though Prestin had the endorsement of current 110th District State Rep. Greg Markkanen. LaFave’s margin was impressive, but his 1,458-vote margin was not enough to overcome Prestin’s advantage in the other areas.
Conclusion
Prestin won this campaign thanks to his connections with the U.P. delegation, his large campaign war chest, and the fact that voters in his current district overwhelming approve of his work, resulting in large margins. But as the race turns to November, with Delta County Commissioner Kelli Van Ginhoven carrying the Democratic banner and former 109th District State Representative Sara Cambensy running as an Independent, the general election is shaping up to be another interesting contest in which the winner may not reach 50%.
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In the coming weeks we will be reviewing key primary results and preview the legislative races for the November election.
If you enjoy reading about U.P. Politics take a look at past articles about northern Michigan’s premier battleground seat, the 109th District and the 38th State Senate seat.
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Fate of 38
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- GOP Showdown
- History Part One “110% U.P.”
- History Part Two “Blue to Red”
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