A Strange Opportunity for Peace
There is an ancient proverb that says: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Is it possible, in our time, that this sort of calculus will be the start of a move toward peace in the Middle East? Stranger things have happened, and are happening as we speak.
Pretend, for the moment, that you are Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. You have a vision for your country, a vision to modernize, a vision that embraces green technology, a vision that inspires a sense of hope, a vision that will bring prosperity, and create opportunities for your people. As part of the process, you need to attract some serious investment capital. To that end, you organize a Saudi investment Summit, which is scheduled to take place in Riyadh, for four days starting on October 26, 2026. You invite JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon and Citi’s Jane Fraser to speak. Everything is set and ready to go when something unexpected happens. The Houthis, who are supported by Iran, decide to bomb five of your airports, killing some 19 people and injuring 364.
It is not difficult to imagine that missiles exploding in your airports, even as prospective investors are scheduled to arrive, will do little to instill a sense of investor confidence.
This scenario, in a nutshell, epitomizes what is happening throughout the Middle East. Visionaries like MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) desire to take the region in a new, and more positive direction. They want to use oil profits to generate green profits. They are more than willing to invest what it takes to make that happen. However, the ideological extremists, like the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian regime, have something quite different in mind. They reject a move toward modernity. They are stuck in the past, and in their extreme interpretations of Islam and Sharia law. They care little about the welfare of their people, and are more than willing to sacrifice innocent lives in pursuit of their uncompromising agenda. They believe what they want to believe, and for them, the truth is just a side-issue; a minor detail not to be given a second thought.
The question then becomes: Who gets to set the agenda?
Leaders like MBS, who look at the region as a whole, and who may need military help to contend with the ideological extremists, may ask themselves: Who in this region has the military capability to help? And who shares the same strategic interests with us; namely, security and economic growth? Who might make a good partner at this time, if we can only find a way to make it so?
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It is not inconceivable that MBS could conclude that Israel may be in the best position to help him defeat the ideological extremists. Israel has a proven track record as a military powerhouse. And Israel shares a common interest in fighting against the ideological extremists who seek her destruction. Israel is also the “start up nation” whose innovation could be partnered with some serious capital to create millions of jobs, throughout the Middle East.
Is it possible, under these circumstances, that a bargain could be struck, between Saudi Arabia and Israel, by which a military/economic alliance is formed, in exchange for normalization between the two nations? Is it also possible that an alliance of this sort could be the beginning of peace in the region as a whole, as other nations join in?
Of course, a good many obstacles stand in the way. MBS has made it clear that he will not normalize with Israel unless Israel commits to a two-state solution with the Palestinians. The current Israeli government would likely reject such a commitment. However, an upcoming election in late October could make a difference in this regard. Depending on who wins, Israel may become more open to some sort of a peace deal with the Palestinians, especially if normalization with Saudi Arabia, and the entire Arab world, is on the table.
At present, a two-state solution seems inconceivable. After the attack on October 7, 2023, both Israelis and Palestinians have become highly skeptical of the possibility of peace. But you never know. In the long run, it behooves Israel to come to terms with the millions of Palestinians who live in the West Bank and Gaza. Peace, and only peace, is Israel’s ultimate security.
The strange thing is that once the two peoples are properly conditioned for the possibility of peace, a two-state solution may not be that different from what exists now, except that there will be a greater chance for peace to take hold.
If a two-state solution is implemented, along the lines that Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton proposed in July 2000, will things change all that much? Will there be Jews and Palestinians living in the West Bank? Yes, just as there is now, but maybe they will help one another, for a change, to bring prosperity to Palestine. Will there be a sharing of Jerusalem? Yes, just like there is now, but maybe Jerusalem will finally fulfill its legacy as the “city of peace.” Will Israel still be responsible for securing the Palestinian State from outside invaders? Yes, just as is the case now, except that with peace, there may be less need for military action.
Bottom line: It is conceivable that once the two sides have been properly conditioned for peace, a two-state solution may be possible, by which the situation will be similar to what is happening now, except that there will be peace, which may grow, over time, into friendship, and cooperation toward a brighter future.
There is a strange alignment of the stars happening, whereby the self-interest of some of the key players, like Saudi Arabia and Israel, is coming into alignment with the best interests of the region. Leaders on all sides may be coaxed into peace, not because they necessarily want to, God forbid, but because there are very few alternatives that make any sense. So, let it start that way, out of self-interest, and perhaps eventually, it will grow into something more. Stranger things have happened.
If you want to get a glimpse of how we can condition people for the possibility of peace, and what peace would actually look like, please visit www.MissingPieceForGreen.org or take a look at this 5-minute video. Your comments and active participation would be most welcomed.
