France 2027: Le Pen needs Mélenchon
At first glance, the march that took place in Paris this week blended into the range of Israel-Gaza protests seen across Europe, and indeed the world. London saw its biggest Pro-Palestinian march this weekend. What made France’s demonstration different was that it was a march against antisemitism, and unlike similar marches in other countries it was well attended and attended by politicians across the spectrum. The surprising news was that the far-right National Rally attended under Marine Le Pen, and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not.
Most airtime has focused on the recalibration of these two political forces; how this reflects on the popularity of each. Le Pen has taken her party strides forwards from the days of her father’s blatant antisemitism and Holocaust denial. Mélenchon has fallen to classic far-left anti-Israel tropes, the kinds we have seen at the fringes of pro-Palestinian marches across Europe. The blind spot (if we assume it doesn’t run deeper) is the same that Jeremy Corbyn faced. And so, inevitably Le Pen’s poll ratings have improved at the expense of Mélenchon.
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While the champagne corks will have been popping at HQ Le Pen, there lies a dilemma for Marine. Macron cannot run again and there is no clear and popular successor for him within the centre coalition, Ensemble, which includes Macron’s Renaissance (formerly En Marche). The traditional vanguards of the centre-left and centre-right, the Socialist Party and the Republicans, floundering for years, still have not recovered support and the public appear disillusioned with their traditional choice. Thus, for years, a Le Pen v Mélenchon, far right v far left, explosive final round of the French presidential election has appeared inevitable. It remains to be seen who will win.
That is why for Le Pen, having Mélenchon dip so low makes it harder for her to win in the final round. If he doesn’t make it through the first round, and a more centrist, traditional candidate makes it through, then a repeat of the previous two — three if you count Le Pen’s father v Chirac in 2002 — happens. A more moderate candidate absorbs the ‘respectable’ vote from across the politician spectrum to defeat Le Pen. It remains to be seen if voters would rally around an extreme left candidate like Mélenchon against Le Pen.
For now, Le Pen will be happy. But with an eye on the main prize — and running presumably for the final time — she will need Mélenchon to recover slightly, but not too much. 2027 is a long way away, and it is already shaping up to be the most electric presidential election in years.
