John Kasich? Really?
It isn’t hopeless. Not if Trump screws up badly, and Trump is both careless and guilty.
Lurking. Stalking. Waiting.
“President Trump was asked by Fox News if he is worried about Gov. John Kasich or others challenging him in the 2020 Republican Primary. His response: ‘I hope they do.’ Team Kasich’s response: ‘Be careful what you wish for!’”
From a recent Kasich fundraising letter.
John Kasich has a strategy and it is not a hopeless one.
It requires Trump to fail.
Readers not on John Kasich’s mailing list may be unaware that he is actively promoting himself as both a loyal Republican and alternative to Trump. His path to victory requires a disorderly end to the Trump presidency. Trump is a disorderly person.
Kasich just got a CNN gig. That puts him in they public eye, although not with the right network. CNN gives a platform to talk to people disgusted by Trump, i.e. people who don’t vote in Republican primary elections.
Kasich relentlessly sends out policy statements and fundraising appeals. I am on his list.
Kasich has a theme. Good government. Compromise. Be prudent. Be grown up. Don’t say racist, xenophobic things. Be a good Christian.
Example: ”Dear Peter, I was in New Hampshire today, meeting with old friends and supporters, and I spoke about what we can all do to make a difference in our communities during these times of deep partisan division. This is a message that more and more Americans need to hear. We all instinctively know right from wrong but it will take each of us doing our part to drive real change.”
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And, in response to Trump’s oval office speech:
“The President and the Democrats need to learn how to compromise and put the American people first. It starts with the President putting the country ahead of his politics and being more flexible with his goals.”
Messages like that. Then buttons to push to give money.
The political landscape for Republicans is simple. Trump is the star. He owns the GOP. People who have openly opposed him lose primary races.
The Cook Political Report sums up the situation: “Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has never dropped below 77 percent and sometimes reached as high as 91%. Trump is not hemorrhaging among his fellow Republicans, though we may be seeing a bit of erosion.”
The Trump successor niche is filled. Trump has political heirs already, Vice President Mike Pence, and former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. If Trump leaves office constitutionally, Pence is the likely successor.
If Trump announces that his work is done and that he won’t run for re-election, and leaves with head held high, then we could have an open primary battle between the dishwater dull Pence and the charismatic Haley. It would be an exciting contest. Haley is Sarah Palin, but with brains. She sounds like a populist. Pence sounds like an establishment puppet. Still, Pence has the head start and Pence is a white male in a party most comfortable with white males in power and women in support roles.
Kasich’s path to victory: Trump in disgrace.
If Trump is in the position that Nixon was prior to his resignation — holding on but being abandoned by Republicans — or in the position that George Bush was in November, 2008 — amidst a financial collapse — then Republican voters may be looking for a dignified, qualified alternative to Trump, someone like Kasich. Someone not tainted.
Kasich would have a single rival, Mitt Romney. Both would represent a retreat from Trump high drama and it would be an election do-over. Romney is better known, but Trump has labeled him a “loser.” Romney is a Mormon. There is a great deal more anti-Mormon sentiment among Christians than I had understood in 2012. The Christian evangelical vote is crucial in the GOP primary, and Kasich does not force them to choose between a Mormon and a Democrat. It could be a factor.
What has to happen for Kasich to have a chance? Mueller needs to have found something really embarrassing on Trump or the Trump family, or we need to have a financial or global crisis that appears to be Trump’s fault. Or both.
It could happen.
This is from the blog: UpClose with Peter Sage, www.peterwsage.blogspot.com It is updated daily. Check it out. Subscribe by email.
