REGRESSION TO THE MEAN
One of the benefits of studying a lot of different things, is that in time you begin to recognize similarities in certain principles propagated by the things you are studying or have studied. One area where this is prevalent is in Martial Arts. Now, there are few worlds with as much controversy as the world of Martial Arts, especially with a lot of practitioners stating that their art is the best, and looking for any opportunity to prove this, or not. The vitriol spewed is actually amazing, with no regard for context.
A little personal background.
As a Martial Artist, I started off practicing on my own after watching any martial arts movie as a kid, but I didn’t really start learning formally until 2004, in Uni while earning my first degree in Accounting. My roommate who was a Karateka took me through a few weeks of training; the first session, which was from 11pm-12pm (yes, at night) left me in so much pain, I couldn’t laugh or turn to look behind me for a week. However, he transferred out of the school (a recurring theme for my teachers this first year), and I moved to studying Aikido with another of my roommates, who, again, transferred out after a few months. After drifting, I discovered my first Sensei, a medical student called Brasca (funny enough, I don’t recall his real name) who was from a legacy of martial arts; his parents were both Karatekas, as well as his siblings. He took me up, training me for about a year, before, yup, you guessed it, transferring out of the school. After this, I just trained with the material he gave me. However, in no time I discovered and joined a budding community of Martial Artists, led by a lady, Sa Bum Nim Jane, who represented Delta State at the time, and Sa Bum Nim George. For the next 2 years, together with a couple of guys (Chuks, Ogbe, Cedric, Tosin, Efe) I trained in Taekwondo, until I graduated in 2007. Fast-forward to 2010, when I moved to London for my Masters degree in Kingston University, where I trained in both Taekwondo with the Kingston Uni Tigers (competed in the 2011 Chungdokwan Championships, winning Gold in my category), and Ju-jitsu, at the same time, for about 2 years.
Coming back to Nigeria in 2014, I sought out the Martial Arts community in Port Harcourt, but had to postpone my training to focus on getting my ACA. I resumed training in Karate again in 2016, starting from scratch again with Sensei Dennis, before moving to Wushu in 2017 with my current Sifu. However, it was while I trained in Wushu (starting in Wing Chun), that I started to notice the similarities in quite a number of patterns and techniques, realizing that the differences were actually in the interpretation of these techniques. For instance, I realized that the kicks in Karate, Taekwondo and even Wushu are essentially the same; just performed differently, depending on Martial Philosophy and understanding. Realizing this also made me realize similarities within the various arts within Wushu, from Wushu to Baguazhang, to Tai Li Fu, to Bajiquan, to Tai Chi Chuan. There are underlying principles running like a thread through them and actually through all Martial Arts, if you know where to look, and what to look for.
So, why did I take you down memory lane of my Martial Life?
Well, I was recently part of a Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt training, when I recognized certain things pertaining to Data Analysis. Within the DMAIC process, I was seeing things like Data Collection, Data Structures, Data Sampling, Pareto Chart, Hypothesis testing, Chi Square, ANOVA etc. It felt good to actually see these concepts again; it was like seeing a good friend at the market, and shopping with him/her.
One thing irked me about the training though; the financial model espoused by the trainer as a measurement of efficiency. The first day the model was introduced, my head hurt because I tried to understand what I was seeing. However, I let it slide, as I was tired and it had been a long day. However, when he introduced this model again the next day at the end of an exercise, I shot up from my seat in protest.
First off, the model included 2 separate values for revenue with different unit values: Orders received and Orders Delivered, with both added to make up revenue (WHAT!?) The thing with this was that when I asked, I was told that the amount for Orders Received was the unit COST of making a product. Then to be deducted from this overall figure was Work-In-Progress, and then Purchases, after which I asked:
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What about the Orders Received you just said was the unit COST of production?
And how would you include WIP in calculation of Profit or Loss for the period for a company?
If anything, the better measure of efficiency would have been the following:
· A measurement of the number of orders fulfilled within the time frame for the exercise, taking into cognizance the materials used.
· How many orders Logistics was able to move from point-to-point, and in what time.
· How long did it take each department to fulfill their obligations within each cycle?
· How many orders was the company able to fulfill using its own inventory, without having to buy from external suppliers?
There are a lot of other measures of efficiency I could have highlighted, but our debate was taking to much time, so we just had to leave it at that, with the trainer acknowledging that the model could be wrong, but that we should focus on the main issue at hand. Well, it was a Saturday, way past closing time, so we had to leave it at that.
But yeah, I didn’t really know what I was expecting from the training program, but I definitely didn’t expect to see stuff from Data Analysis and even Finance.
Stick around long enough, and you find out that a lot of things are actually connected underneath.
As statistics will tell you, when you sample a lot of random variables, most will regress to the mean.
