Is Randomness a Lie?
If I take a coin, any kind of coin, and I flip it… You would say that there is a fifty percent chance I get heads and a fifty percent chance I get tails.
If I flipped that coin ten times in a row, I am likely to get five heads and five tails, as we predicted. Now, what if I were to do that thousands of times. Maybe one thousand? At this many flips, it is actually more likely for me to get a number close to five-hundred than five-hundred itself.
We all know probabilities are not exact; rather they are just approximations of things happening. In real life, whether things happen or not is considered random to us. We do not know if the coin will land on heads or tails as we consider it to be a random event. But is it really random?
Of Course It’s Random… Right?
Well, not really. The result of flipping a coin has a lot to do with the variables representing the event. It’s actually just physics.
The way we flip the coin with our fingers, the exact weights of the coin on either of its side, the surface the coin lands on, the strength of gravity, the air resistance, and so much more actually determines how a coin will land. In reality, with the event of flipping a coin, it has nothing random to it.
If we were to calculate events by taking these variables into account, applying them into large physics equations, it would be overkill. Imagine how complex that would be if we were to calculate all of this every time we flipped a coin.
We use randomness to represent the tiny hidden details for any event we predict.
This logic would apply to a biased coin as well. Let’s say that rather than fifty-fifty, it’s probabilities are more like eighty-twenty. If I flip the coin a thousand times, I am still very unlikely to get exactly eight-hundred heads and two-hundred tails, as we would expect with probability. The culprit isn’t randomness but rather pure physics.
Humans Are Not Perfect
In these scenarios, we have a human who is flipping the coin. We are not machines, and therefore, our movements are not very precise. It is next to impossible to flip a coin in the exact same way twice in a row. We may get the same result, but the way we flip the coin will almost always be different.
Let’s change up the problem here. What if I had a machine to flip the coin a thousand times in a row. Now, a machine is far more precise than a human in most cases, so if I were to have the machine flip a coin, it would be a different story.
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When we flipped the coin as humans, our lack of precise movements and other variables caused the coin to result in heads about half the time and tails about half the time. If the machine replicates the flip identically, the result would be the same every time instead of being fifty-fifty. However, even the slightest of variation in the mechanics of the machine could reintroduce unpredictability.
As mentioned before, many things control how a coin would flip, but let’s focus on the starting side, the angle, and force applied for now. The starting side plays the biggest factor, but we as humans could of course use the same starting side to match the machine. However, when it comes to angle and force applied, we are unable to be exact in how much force we apply and at what angle we launch the coin. A machine, although not a hundred percent accurate, would be far better at such a task.
If I did this experiment with a machine flipping the coin a thousand times, you would think that now the machine would cause the results to be almost exactly fifty-fifty. If I started with the heads side every time and did the experiments in a closed area where variables like the level of gravity, air resistance, and other physical factors were the same, I would get the same result almost every single time, whatever that result may be.
This is simply because we are launching the coin in the same way over and over again, something we as humans just cannot do perfectly. It is important to note that the machine would not be perfect in flipping the coin exactly because of how sensitive a coin flip is. Machines also have issues like wear and tear and even though they are designed to be highly accurate, they may have failures of their own.
So Does Randomness Even Exist?
It still does exist in our world, but it’s far more hidden.
Let’s take the famous example of Schrödinger’s cat. According to the famous thought experiment, a cat is placed in a box with poison, which is only released based on a separate mechanism. This mechanism has an unstable atom that could decay, and if it does the poison is released. The experiment leads to th idea that the cat is then considered to be both alive and dead as there is no way to know for sure until the box is opened.
Specifically, we need to focus on this idea of the unstable atom. We are told that there is again, a fifty-fifty chance that this given atom will decay to release the poison. So, is this random?
It is! In quantum mechanics, randomness is quite common. Normal laws of physics do not govern the actions of atoms here and randomness reigns supreme.
Further Thoughts
So what does that mean for us, humans?
Did we come to this planet by chance? The most commonly accepted theory is that we evolved from our ancestors, apes. It is also believed that natural selection is what caused our formation. Natural selection relies on mutations, or random mistakes when copying our DNA.
Aha, random! It’s a bit complicated here because randomness plays a part, but other physical and chemical factors play a role. They influence the likelihood of mutations occurring, but they are not the sole cause.
Really, randomness is just our way of simplifying the world around us.
